Gamma Signals Firing Again!!
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| Author       | Source       | 
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|  [u/yelyah2](https://www.reddit.com/user/yelyah2/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nqwtms/gamma_signals_firing_again/) | 

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[Education 👨‍🏫 | Data 🔢](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22Education%20%F0%9F%91%A8%E2%80%8D%F0%9F%8F%AB%20%7C%20Data%20%F0%9F%94%A2%22&restrict_sr=1)

TLDR: It's baaaacckkk!!! The signals are firing up again for another gamma squeeze!

*BIG Edit:* So excited to see how much this took off in the last few hours! I didn't properly get the chance before, but I'll tell you now why I'm so excited...

As you can see, for the last few months I've been anxiously pulling my options data/running my algos every day, and disappointed when I haven't seen that gamma spike since the beginning of March. I've seen other tickers get their spikes, watched AMC's spike for like 2 weeks straight, but no GME....

Then finally last week there was a spike! And I couldn't wait to tell everyone! But it quickly went away, then the three day weekend happened, and was like... was it just a fluke?

Then today, [u/Criand](https://www.reddit.com/u/Criand/) wrote an epic post that put some pieces together with my gamma spikes and the FTD cycles. I ran my algos between meetings this afternoon, and there she was, that beautiful golden spike came back! I couldn't wait to run onto the internet to tell all my friends! Cause lord knows my husband doesn't get excited about this stuff! And my two young kiddos were having some kind of crisis about cheese (understandable though).

Anyways, it wasn't a fluke, these spikes cluster together for the big ones. I'm excited.... I'm jacked.... I can feel it.... I have a hard time understanding all the dd, but I understand this work that I've poured a lot of myself into, and it's telling me our chances of that MOASS just went up by a lot... like a lot....

I have backtested my method using various machine learning/deep learning methods, and the chances of significant increases (5%+) with one of these spikes is around 70%, and goes up to ~80% with multiple spikes. Chances of big increases (10%+) are around 50%, and in GME's case... well... it likes to go BOOM!

I don't put all my faith into these machine learning methods though, probably the nature of an actuary. Machines get you half way, and you have to read the numbers to make calls for yourself. My machines are telling me the conditions are ready.... the other dd is telling me we're ready... and most importantly for every individual ape to feel for themselves, my gut is telling me we're FUK'ING READY!!! LET'S GOOOOOO!!!!!!

Original Post

So excited to share that another gamma neutral spike started today, up to $9,233 (up from the $7,387 spike last week)!

See this post from today by [u/Criand](https://www.reddit.com/u/Criand/) about the interesting relationship between the T+21/T+35 cycle, the gamma neutral spikes and the fuk'd level of hedgies: [Gamma Spike and T+21/T+35 Cycles](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nqbera/things_are_shockingly_similar_to_the_february/)

Graph below in log base 10 so you can see this beauty:

[![r/Superstonk - Gamma Signals Firing Again!!](https://preview.redd.it/3as9umpc5x271.png?width=910&format=png&auto=webp&s=3829e979f085bac25fb0b00992d14d45e4fc5505)](https://preview.redd.it/3as9umpc5x271.png?width=910&format=png&auto=webp&s=3829e979f085bac25fb0b00992d14d45e4fc5505)

GME 1/4/2021 - 6/2/2021, Log Base 10 Scale

In the middle of work, but too excited not to send this out. I can comment more later, but yesssssssss gammmmmaaaa!!!!!

copy/paste explanations from prior posts below for more explanation:

My work is built on the idea that the market is largely unpredictable, but one particular kind of behavior is certain - hedgies like to hedge. It's written into their algorithms. Specifically, they like to delta hedge and gamma hedge. This work tries to profit on this one particular type of buying/selling behavior. I have a little data dictionary at the bottom if you need a refresher on terminology.

-   Delta Neutral: price that creates a total market delta of 0 across all GME options (all expiration dates) for a given date. General observation is it acts like a theoretical floor (although the price can go lower, as seen in February). My theory is that as the underlying approaches the delta neutral, call options go on sale. As people buy call options, MM have to buy the stocks which increases the price. Most stocks like to hang out above the delta neutral, some dip below and create pressure that can shoot them back over the delta neutral (like what happened in February), and some like to hang out below (like the VIX).

-   Gamma Neutral: price that creates a total market gamma of 0 across all GME options (all expiration dates) for a given date. General observation is it acts like support/resistance between the delta neutral and the underlying, and typically bounces around between the two prices for most plan (like we have seen with GME since April). It also goes crazy in periods of high volatility (as you can see by the infinite spikes).

-   Max Pain: price that creates largest loss for option buyers and largest gain for option sellers. This is a controversial topic because underlying prices can drift towards this point. There are typically large areas around the max pain that doesn't make a lot of difference to the profits for option buyer/sellers. It can be used to help gauge where the equilibrium of the options data is, but there is often a wide range around this price point that does not meaningfully affect MM profits.

Disclaimer: I'm just an actuary that likes to play with options data and builds models to trade for a hobby. I have no experience trading professionally or offering any advice to anyone. Nothing is certain in trading. It's all probabilities and what increases/decreases your chance at a profit. This is just one indicator for one type of price movement, and there are many other indicators that can help you make investment decisions.
