T+35 Follow Up [some general thoughts]
======================================

| Author       | Source       | 
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|  [u/dentisttft](https://www.reddit.com/user/dentisttft/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/obng9s/t35_follow_up_some_general_thoughts/) | 

---

[Discussion 🦍](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22Discussion%20%F0%9F%A6%8D%22&restrict_sr=1)

Hello everybody! Yes, I'm still here.

I wrote a post a couple weeks ago about T+35 FTD's. [T+35 is the one true "cycle"](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/o155a6/t35_is_the_one_true_cycle_evidence_to_back_my/)

I've been wanting to write a follow up post for a while, but I didn't want to write it until I had more answers. That led me down a very deep and confusing path tracking ETFs, and to be honest, I probably won't be able to get a full picture for a bit. So I'll go ahead and do a quick follow up post now.

Does T+35 still happen?

Yes. They're not always easy to spot. 6/25 had 40,000 FTDs were most likely covered at 12:20 EST. 6/17 had a 90,000 volume candle which could have easily been the next three days worth of FTDs. Remember, there is nothing forcing them to wait until the last day. This is just what they HAVE been doing. After my post got some attention, I noticed a difference in the FTD behavior. Either they wait until the last possible minute, they cover in the first minute, they cover multiple days early, etc.

Why is it 35 days? (technically, before the 35th day)

The stock gets shorted and settles into an FTD in T+2. Normally, Rule 204 would require them to close the FTD within a day or two. But on the FTD day, they sell a put giving them the "deem to own" clause of Rule 204. When they are "deemed to own" a share, they are able to wait 35 days from the *transaction date*. This is why the 34 days starts on the FTD date, not the date it was shorted like you may think.

If you want proof of this, there is a certain stock that reminds me of a leprechaun. It had a HUGE FTD day in early june. Next thing you know, Put OI sky rocketed. Check other less popular meme stocks and you will probably see the same thing.

What about ETF FTDs?

In my post I stated that ETF FTDs behave the same way as GME FTDs. This is only partially true. They DO get delayed 35 days. They DO NOT get covered on the 34th day following the FTD. There are details within Rule 204 that make the timing slightly different. I've spent the last couple of weeks figuring out all the nitty gritty details... but woah... it's a mess. I'd like to make a post sometime soon with my findings.

Why do FTDs not do much anymore?

It looks like they are shorting the ETFs when they have GME FTDs due and shorting GME when they have ETF FTDs due. You can see this by going 34 days from an ETF FTD. The ETF and other non meme stock in the ETF will rise from the cover but GME will stay flat. I plan on covering this more in my future ETF post. But damn, that spring is getting extremely coiled.

[![r/Superstonk - T+35 Follow Up [some general thoughts]](https://preview.redd.it/tzjywmtg4m871.png?width=2242&format=png&auto=webp&s=3d1b425ba9041c37465618d6181449f8d8ab3d19)](https://preview.redd.it/tzjywmtg4m871.png?width=2242&format=png&auto=webp&s=3d1b425ba9041c37465618d6181449f8d8ab3d19)

Heatmap of ETF FTDs (not weighted by %GME). Each ETF is colored individually so they are on their own scale.

The top third is the heavier ETFs. Look at those cycles. Fun stuff.

Why didn't the new 002 rule do anything?

I tried leaving a few comments to explain this, but I'm sure a lot of people didn't see it. Remember they were *already* satisfying the requirements of the old monthly rules when the new rule came into effect. The deposit for the old monthly rule was already made. I don't see any reason why they suddenly would be over budget from a daily check. The effects of 002 probably won't be seen until the next GME run up.

Do the FTDs even matter?

GME FTDs, no... ETF FTDs, yes. The problems that were coming from the high numbers of GME FTDs have moved to the ETFs. Until the ETF FTDs hit a breaking point, GME will most likely stay flat and have an occasional spike like we saw on Wednesday. The way I see it, moving the problems to ETFs only delays everything at the cost of inflating the entire market.

When is the next big T+35 day?

Friday and Tuesday look decent. But history tells me it will be a spike and then settle again. They are putting in a lot of money to keep GME from taking off.

What does that mean for me?

Keep doing what you're doing. It's building up. It's coming, probably sooner than you think. Future posts will cover this.

Want to see something fun? GME is repeating itself.

The weeks after January are currently happening again at a higher floor. Why? I don't know. It might have to do with quarterly options that have been open for a while. But I wouldn't expect anything to happen for a week or two. ** not manipulated... I swear... hehe **

[![r/Superstonk - T+35 Follow Up [some general thoughts]](https://preview.redd.it/cb1m05dm5m871.png?width=1097&format=png&auto=webp&s=5605fd333b0ac1d9b31c6ad16a290acd15d9202a)](https://preview.redd.it/cb1m05dm5m871.png?width=1097&format=png&auto=webp&s=5605fd333b0ac1d9b31c6ad16a290acd15d9202a)

What about T+21?

I don't know. I'm still not sure T+21 is a thing. I think there are other factors in play that ended up giving GME spikes 21 days apart. Possibly two T+35 cycles at the same time. I have reason to believe the spike in May and the two in June came from ETFs. These are the same reasons I don't think there will be much longer to wait. A couple weeks... but more on that in another post.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------

Alright, that's about all I wanted to cover as a follow up. Sorry it isn't full of juicy content. I was waiting to post until I had real answers, but it's taking longer than expected. The ETFs are the key to the puzzle and they're hitting a boiling point.

TL;DR:

-   T+35 with GME FTDs still is a thing, but GME is being suppressed pretty hard right now.

-   T+35 with ETF FTDs works, but it's not 35. It's 35 days from the puts being sold. I'll have a new post in the future with more details.

-   The driving forces behind GME have moved into the ETFs.

-   HFs are switching back and forth between shorting GME directly and shorting the ETFs to keep GME consistently down.

-   I'll have a post about ETFs in the next 4-5 days.

Also, I made a twitter account so I can post thoughts throughout the day without needing to write a full post. I don't know how much I'll use it. <https://twitter.com/dentisttft>

I had to turn off most of my notifications. The best way to get a hold of me is by tagging me in a comment. It never notifies me of tags in posts... so make sure it's a comment. I try to respond to all tags.

Alright, pce~~~

- [u/dentisttft](https://www.reddit.com/u/dentisttft/)
