GME Elliott Wave Count - Weekend Update 3/20; Big Picture (Weekly and 60-minute candle history) & Current Micro (5-minute) for the coming week
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| Author       | Source       | 
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|  [u/head4headsup](https://www.reddit.com/user/head4headsup/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/comments/m9ju2q/gme_elliott_wave_count_weekend_update_320_big/) | 

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[DD](https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/search?q=flair_name%3A%22DD%22&restrict_sr=1)

[Technical Analysis](https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/search?q=flair_name%3A%22Technical%20Analysis%22&restrict_sr=1)

Edit: thanks for the gold kind stranger.

TL;DR - I'm an ape, not a pro. This is a hobby that has found a home. This is not financial or trading advice. Just a bunch of crayon marks by a primate.

-   In Ape - Bananas... lots of bananas... they are up higher. We had to climb down from some of these branches to get to where the higher branches start, where there are LOTS more bananas. We can't see how many bananas are up there until we have climbed higher, then climbed down from there a little to get to the base of yet another higher branch.

-   The branches that go too low have warning signs (support) like greasy black peels. We can see them, and avoid them, before we slip and fall too far.

Humbled

First, thank you to everyone that provided the feedback (upvotes, awards, DMs) that this form of Technical Analysis (Elliott Wave) provides value. It can be complicated, and it certainly takes time to do it right. I was skeptical in the beginning (years ago), but my degree in psychology and day job in data analytics drove me further down the rabbit hole. Many remain skeptical to this day. Those that take the time to truly learn about Elliott Wave, and the powerful projections possible when it is coupled with the Golden Ratio (Phi; Fibonacci calculations that are evident throughout nature and human history), can look at all types of securities and see the waves. They will likely come to the same conclusions; any activity impacted by the human psyche (especially when $$ is involved) can be tracked and projected with shocking accuracy. I have provided a very basic intro here [r/ElliottWaveTrading](https://www.reddit.com/r/ElliottWaveTrading/). No self-promotion (I don't have my own site yet, and I don't shill for any other site. If requested via DM, I'll tell you whom and where I credit most of my understanding from). I do give a nod to my favorite in a comment in the above sub.

Second - What Elliott Wave is NOT. Elliott Wave provides NO guarantee that something is definitely doing [x]. It does help determine probabilities, by providing very accurate projections on 'If it is doing [x], then likely [y], else possibly [z]'. This is unsatisfying to the the impatient. It also has not shown me to be good when determining 'timing' projections. [see below discussion on how GME turned a Wave 3 around in incredible speed compared to the preceding waves 1 and 2). That is the beauty. Knowing the projections means paying attention to them being hit, whether 5 minutes from now or 5 months from now. To the prudent, it offers a powerful decision-making opportunity. I personally use the IF, THEN, ELSE likelihoods provided by Elliott Wave projections to determine my entry and exit points on myriad securities; Buying opportunities, profit lock-in points, and stop loss points for when the Alternate count proves to be playing out.

Third - I get that GME is in a different boat for the majority of us Apes. WE are HODLING. I too see this as a rare-opportunity to buy and hold just to see if the DD provided by so many others comes to fruition. According to Elliott Wave, it will. I personally have been adding to my position one each dip... the cost/share average dropping is comforting when paper hands are too scared. You want DIAMOND hands? How much stronger are those hands when you can see the actual upside targets? When you can admit that all equities do not move in a linear fashion, but rather move up and down on their way to where they are going. Imagine seeing an overlay of what those ups and downs may look like. That is the power of Elliott Wave.

Now, let's get to it.

In the beginning - For the first 18 years, GME reached a peak in 2007, and spent the next 13 years retracing wave I in textbook three-wave fashion, culminating in wave II early last year.

[GME Weekly Candles - 2002 to 2020](https://preview.redd.it/9j4vfifiw9o61.jpg?width=1530&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=5ca8d954ce3076190081c0d1510e85363acc4524)

Measure Twice, Cut Once - I have spent the better part of the last 36hours going back to 2002 when GME went public, and calculating the waves at the Weekly and 60-minute candles to see the larger degree. This is important, because the lazy Elliottician simply looks at the waves and says 'Yep, looks like 5 up there, and 3 down there'. Fractals are much easier to see, and one can let their confirmation bias get the better of them before they've given the calculations a chance to support the true count.

I measured every wave, noted the Fibonacci extensions and retraces, and let the waves speak. Even a drastic upswing proved to be too much for a single move, and forced me to look at the subwaves again to confirm each move adhered to traditionally seen extensions.

I've spared the reader the retina blindness that would come with all the notations of the past. You will find concise current notations below in the Micro (5-minute candle) chart. However, you can still visually note the corrective waves: A and B (and indeed also subwaves a and b within them) will be composed of 3-3-5 usually, in that A and B are three wave moves, and C is usually a 5-wave completion of the correction. Even II above can be visually identified in overlapping waves within A and B (not labeled), with a discernable 5-wave move down beginning in 2015 (five down for 1, three up for 2, five down for 3, three up for 4 and finally five down for 5-C-II in April 2020.

Elliott Wave also espouses a phenomenon of Alteration. That is seen in waves 2 and 4 exhibiting a unique behavior often: If 2 resolves quickly, 4 will take it's time (and vice versa). Waves 1 and 5 can show this behavior also. (Remembering that in an impulse (motive) wave, 1,3, and 5 are five wave moves and 2 and 4 are corrective 3 wave moves).

Big Picture - We are likely in the fifth wave of (i) of I of (III). Just wait until we are in (iii) of III, Or even III of (III). Those will be historic.

[GME Big Picture (60-minute candles)](https://preview.redd.it/u34l2kr0x9o61.jpg?width=1534&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=2ee089e47277fd2a028006f1b12f9845414cc5c4)

How We Got Here - GME spent a long time retracing from 2007 to 2020, as we saw above. A dramatic upswing in price after II completed gave us (I) in a move the shocked the world. DFV knew it was coming. I wish I had been charting this (and even knew who he was) in 2020. My life would have changed (and still will). With that, I believe we are in one of the most amazing places to be in a rally when it comes to Elliott Wave... a 3rd wave. 3rd waves are almost always the most dramatic (whether to the upside or downside). At this point, we are looking at an upside rally in a 3rd. BANANAS!

Major FUD was likely put to bed for the time being when wave (II) ended (and indeed when the notable spike of iii of (1) on February 24,2021). And yes, there will always be FUD, but most noticeable in waves 2 and 4... even this wave (4) we are trying to put to bed from the past week. That is the coiling needed to launch into the 5-wave moves.

To confirm we are now in a major 3rd wave (III), we needed to see impulsive action (5-wave moves to the upside followed by 3-wave pullbacks)... and as we have seen a firm 5-up in (1) and (3), we now needing to break through resistance to give us 5-up in (i). If we only get a 3-wave move up to 3 of (i), either (4) did not complete, or (II) did not complete. Again, breaking resistance reduces the chances of further downside.

The Coming Week - GME Micro Count

[GME Micro (5-minute candles) - 3/20/2021](https://preview.redd.it/rsxbjwj7x9o61.jpg?width=1533&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=f9c2f573fdb2863e926b636604d3bf7435f169f1)

So this past week left us with plenty to celebrate. Our

-   A five wave move up off the 3/16 low at 172.50, with only three-wave/overlapping-wave pullbacks so far.

    -   Yes, i is a Leading Diagonal in EW parlance. Not gorgeous, but impulsive until it is not. Only a violation of where it started invalidates it as a bullish move.

-   A corrective pullback in ii followed by another five-wave move up in 1. Ideally, we see more upside this week to break resistance of 231.02, and continue this party train to upper $200s in iii, the mid-$300's for (i), ~$500ish for (iii), and all of this is only to get to I of (III)!!!!

-   A corrective pullback in 2. This gives us a classic i-ii-1-2 setup going into iii of (i) of (5). Only a break of 172.50 invalidates our new 5-wave move to the upside for now.

-   Remember that Leading Diagonal for i? Even if we get a 5-wave move up to iii, that LD leaves the door open for all of this since 172.50 to be an incomplete (4), where 172.50 is a, iii could be b and the rest is unspoken for now. We have enough to be hopeful for.

Here We Go, Yo, So What's the Scenario -

You want a WAG? Because EW projects from the bottom of 2nd waves, soooooo..... until I get the 2nd in the subwaves, you get projections from 2nd waves already in place. But here are some projections from the larger degree 2nd waves.

-   Do you want to know where that (III) is? Do ya? Start thinking 4-figures stock prices there. We would need a pullback from I to II to accurately calculate where (III) goes, but it's big. Even assuming a .5 to .618 pullback to $500-$300 in II, that lurch from there to (III) is going to give the Hedgies Wedgies, because we will have them by the Shorts!

Remember, the spacing on the charts is not an indicator of when a price target will be hit. Elliott Wave can be seen even when the entire move is contained in a rapid succession of candles. Just look at how quickly we completed full five-wave moves of (i), (iii), III and (I) in just a two weeks in January!

Who the hell do you think you are?

Some say this EW stuff has too much FUD. I disagree. I look at every pullback projection as a buying opportunity. I'm not as loaded as DFV et al, but I am buying... and HODLING. It is VERY possible that Friday's low of $183.58 was the last best buying opportunity. So IF we do get pullbacks that take us deeper than our already tagged completed waves, I am buying. This is not trading advice. It is my OPINION. I am not a pro. I am not a financial advisor. I am but a humble ape with a seriously disturbing hobby of staring at charts and applying projections of how exuberance and fear may impact price.

If you want more on the basics of Elliott Wave, visit [r/ElliottWaveTrading](https://www.reddit.com/r/ElliottWaveTrading/).

H4HU
