Theory on the FTD Loop Missing Link - a T+35 surge followed by an infinite T+21 loop surrounding specific option dates. Support for April 16th options T+21 theory pointing to a possible surge tomorrow, or T+35 surge on May 24th

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| Author       | Source       | 
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|  [u/Criand](https://www.reddit.com/user/Criand/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nf22qz/theory_on_the_ftd_loop_missing_link_a_t35_surge/) | 

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[DD 👨‍🔬](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22DD%20%F0%9F%91%A8%E2%80%8D%F0%9F%94%AC%22&restrict_sr=1)

0\. Preface

I'm not a financial advisor. <Insert witty comment here before posting>.

Speculative post? OR REAL SHIT? I'm pretty hyped about April 16th being a doomsday clock for the hedgies, since that's the time they started working the night shift. "Give it up for day 15!" as Mr. Krabs would say.

Do you like dates? I like dates. I'd be happy to take you on one. Just ask. 😉

I would like apes to pick at this, because I feel like we're really close to finding the secret sauce to the price movements and predicting the next surge (maybe even MOASS ignition). Is it T+21? Is it T+35? Both? I've got some charts for you to take a peek at and help discuss!

Shoutout to the big brain apes lately who started to bring traction to the FTDs again. I'd love to get all of your guys input and any other apes I've missed or who want to join in:

[/u/juventinn1897](https://www.reddit.com/u/juventinn1897/)

[/u/Suspicious-Singer243](https://www.reddit.com/u/Suspicious-Singer243/)

[/u/Horror_Fishing_2523](https://www.reddit.com/u/Horror_Fishing_2523/)

[/u/HomeDepotHank69](https://www.reddit.com/u/HomeDepotHank69/)

Let's DRAGON BALL FUSION this!

[![r/Superstonk - Theory on the FTD Loop Missing Link - a T+35 surge followed by an infinite T+21 loop surrounding specific option dates. Support for April 16th options T+21 theory pointing to a possible surge tomorrow, or T+35 surge on May 24th](https://preview.redd.it/ch9tiqqwwsz61.png?width=1442&format=png&auto=webp&s=51e2817ea22f633f88092b6a5d2d04653c3712e0)](https://preview.redd.it/ch9tiqqwwsz61.png?width=1442&format=png&auto=webp&s=51e2817ea22f633f88092b6a5d2d04653c3712e0)

Idea courtesy of /u/435f43f534

1\. How to Determine T+35 and T+21

Before we move forward, I think it's important to talk about T+35 and T+21. I've made the mistake of counting T+0 from option expiration, which I don't believe is right. The clock actually starts ticking on the Monday following options expiration. So, big whoops on my behalf.

Quoting from [this post](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/ml3exp/the_foass_speculation_yeah_foass/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf) describing different T+N settlements:

> It is not until T+35 (calendar days) when a clearing agency enters into a forced covering position.

Ah, interesting. So after T+35 calendar days, the clearing agency is forced to start delivering.

And if I recall correctly, T+21 derives from brokers having a limit of T+16, but a Market Maker gets an additional +5 days, which results in T+16+5 = T+21. So, Market Makers will be forced to deliver after T+21.

Let's walk through an example of T+35:

1\.  April 16 Options Expiration. T+35 clock starts the following Monday, April 19th, as T+0.

2\.  Each calendar day following is +1, not including Holidays. This gives us:

| April 16th Options Expiration |  |

| --- | --- |

| Date | T+N |

| April 19th | T+0 |

| April 20th | T+1 |

| April 21st | T+2 |

| ... |  |

| April 26th | T+7 |

| ... |  |

| May 21st | T+32 |

| May 24th | T+35 |

Cool beans. Let's walk through an example of T+21:

1\.  April 16 Options Expiration. T+21 clock starts the following Monday, April 19th, as T+0.

2\.  Each business day following is +1, not including Holidays. This gives us:

| April 16th Options Expiration |  |

| --- | --- |

| Date | T+N |

| April 19th | T+0 |

| April 20th | T+1 |

| April 21st | T+2 |

| ... |  |

| April 26th | T+5 |

| ... |  |

| May 17th | T+20 |

| May 18th | T+21 |

So depending on if the Market Maker or the Clearing House is forced to deliver for April 16th options, if they are significant, then we're looking at one of two possibilities here:

1\.  Market Maker delivers on T+21, May 18th

2\.  Clearing House delivers on T+35, May 24th

2\. Support for April 16 T+21 Theory

[/u/juventinn1897](https://www.reddit.com/u/juventinn1897/)'s post is awesome. Take a look. It got my Pomeranian senses tingling again, so I took a look at the charts again once I looked at their findings a bit more:

<https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/ne3ra6/t21_from_put_expiry_dates_could_be_key_to_the_ftd/>

[/u/juventinn1897](https://www.reddit.com/u/juventinn1897/)'s theory is that we have had T+21 links to January 22 and February 5th, resulting in the February 24th and March 10th bursts due to large amounts of PUT OI increasing since the middle of January. Remember, we don't count holidays. So it all lines up perfectly when you ignore February 15th (Washington's Birthday):

| January 22nd Options Expiration |  |

| --- | --- |

| Date | T+N |

| January 25th | T+0 |

| January 26th | T+1 |

| January 27th | T+2 |

| <Ignore Feb 15> |  |

| February 16th | T+15 |

| ... |  |

| February 22nd | T+19 |

| February 24th | T+21 |

| February 5th Options Expiration |  |

| --- | --- |

| Date | T+N |

| February 8th | T+0 |

| February 9th | T+1 |

| February 10th | T+2 |

| <Ignore Feb 15> |  |

| February 16th | T+5 |

| ... |  |

| March 8th | T+19 |

| March 10th | T+21 |

With that relationship established, T+21 from April 16th truly points to tomorrow, May 18th, because we need to start T+0 from the Monday following the option expiration. May the force be with you, prophet [/u/juventinn1897](https://www.reddit.com/u/juventinn1897/)! I sure as hell would like tendies tomorrow!

3\. What if it's Actually a Combination of T+35 and T+21? The Missing Link?

Now... with that being said, I'd like to throw a curve ball at you. Instead of T+21, perhaps it starts with T+35 from major options dates and then it triggers an ever-looping T+21 cycle from those initial options dates:

1\.  The option expires and then T+35 calendar days later the Clearing House starts to deliver.

    1.  Clearing House -> Market Maker delivery complete

2\.  Once the Clearing House delivers on T+35, the Market Maker gets the delivery and enters a T+21 cycle of kicking the can down the road because they don't want to deliver to retail. Price suppression baby!

    1.  Market Maker -> Retail/Institution delivery cancelled!

Theory? The Clearing House delivers to the MMs. The Clearing House is out of the picture now. No more T+35. It's all on the MMs to complete the delivery to retail (or institutions). The MM (Citadel) does not want to deliver, because fuck that! The price will skyrocket! So, they suppress the delivery and continuously can-kick in an infinite T+21. This is an infinite T+21 loop because the MMs are obligated by T+21. Hey! It's FTD squeeze theory! I've come full circle!

In an actual example, let's look at January 15:

1\.  January 15 options expire. T+35, February 24th, Clearing House delivers to Citadel.

2\.  Citadel caps the delivery to not let the price run wild. Nuh-uh retail! You're not getting deliveries!

3\.  Citadel kicks January 15th deliveries further down the road T+21 more days.

4\.  T+21 March 25th arrives and Citadel has to act quick to kick the can T+21 once more because they are obligated on T+21 as a Market Maker.

5\.  T+21 April 26th arrives and Citadel has to act quick to kick the can T+21 once more.

6\.  Repeats indefinitely until all of January 15th options deliveries are satisfied, or DTC-005 pulls the plug.

Or take a look at February 5th:

1\.  February 5th options expire. T+35, March 15th, Clearing House delivers to Citadel.

2\.  Citadel caps the delivery to not let the price run wild.

3\.  Citadel kicks February 5th deliveries further down the road T+21 more days.

4\.  T+21 April 14th arrives and Citadel has to act quick to kick the can T+21 once more because they are obligated on T+21 as a Market Maker.

5\.  T+21 May 13th arrives and Citadel has to act quick to kick the can T+21 once more.

6\.  Repeats indefinitely until all of February 5th options deliveries are satisfied, or DTC-005 pulls the plug.

Ew. I don't like text. I like visuals. And I'm sure you guys do, too. It just helps so much more. Don't worry - I got you! We'll plot the January 15th and February 5th examples on a chart!

Take a look at this chart of GME. Purple boxes are indicating T+35. Green boxes are indicating T+21. I'd love if someone had data to back up February 5th, or if that's just a red herring. Still, T+35 and then T+21 loop lines up perfectly with February 5th options date when you take into account holidays.

[![r/Superstonk - Theory on the FTD Loop Missing Link - a T+35 surge followed by an infinite T+21 loop surrounding specific option dates. Support for April 16th options T+21 theory pointing to a possible surge tomorrow, or T+35 surge on May 24th](https://preview.redd.it/fnj6sd2srsz61.png?width=1427&format=png&auto=webp&s=a7731b7e3aaacee2dcdaff9e46bdc767c0a90f9f)](https://preview.redd.it/fnj6sd2srsz61.png?width=1427&format=png&auto=webp&s=a7731b7e3aaacee2dcdaff9e46bdc767c0a90f9f)

Figure 1: GME T+21 and T+35 Cycles

Huh? March 15th didn't have a surge! Yes, you are correct. It had a biiiig surge down though. Now take a look at our friend AMC. I've plotted THE SAME EXACT T+35 AND T+21 CYCLES. Notice how similar AMC is? How its following the same spikes? Notice anything different about March 15 for AMC? AMC went up! I bet you they wasted a lot of ammo on March 15th to avoid GME surging up because it was in the $280s at the time. Danger Zone!!

[![r/Superstonk - Theory on the FTD Loop Missing Link - a T+35 surge followed by an infinite T+21 loop surrounding specific option dates. Support for April 16th options T+21 theory pointing to a possible surge tomorrow, or T+35 surge on May 24th](https://preview.redd.it/1vzoarafqsz61.png?width=1423&format=png&auto=webp&s=6df4b3db90f5ab0a635444fa6116bdd23ae73142)](https://preview.redd.it/1vzoarafqsz61.png?width=1423&format=png&auto=webp&s=6df4b3db90f5ab0a635444fa6116bdd23ae73142)

Figure 2: AMC T+21 and T+35 Cycles

The similarities in these charts is too much to pass up. Both AMC and GME are heavily shorted stocks and we need to apply the same analysis to both. AMC seems less suppressed compared to GME - fewer attacks - because it's not as big of a problem as GME.

Once I saw the surge on March 15 for AMC it started to click that the T+35 initiation followed by T+21 loop is probably happening.

Again though, February 5th is strange. It's not one of the major option dates that were provided last year. The only major option dates provided in early 2020 were:

-   Janaury 15, 2021 (Possibly started T+35 and then subsequent T+21 cycle)

-   April 16, 2021 (Possibly starting another T+35 cycle and subsequent T+21 cycle)

-   July 16, 2021

-   January 21, 2022

Could be a red herring. Could be that they fucked up thinking GME would have been dead by February 5th T+35 = March 15th. PUT OI and PUT volume skyrocketed during the January runup to absurd amounts (we peaked at 2 million PUT OI = 200 million shares worth). They very well could have chosen February 5th as a date to hide deliveries. This is where I'm hoping I get some help from fellow apes.

Now once more - this isn't throwing T+21 April 16th theory out just yet! I've plotted it on the charts which signals May 18th as T+21 from April 16th expiration. I just believe that we're probably looking at this T+35 and T+21 relationship instead. Regardless, I'm excited to see what happens tomorrow.

4\. TL;DR:

The FTD loop is most likely based around an initial T+35 from the Clearing House, and then an infinite loop of T+21 by Citadel (Market Maker):

1\.  Major option date expires. The Clearing House will deliver to Market Makers after T+35 calendar days because the Clearing House is obligated to deliver after T+35.

2\.  The Clearing House is now out of the picture after T+35 and the Market Maker has the delivery. The Market Maker then has to deliver to retail/institutions.

3\.  The Market Maker (Citadel) doesn't want to deliver, so they cap the deliveries and kick it down the road. The maximum time Citadel can kick the can down the road before it comes back is T+21 business days because Market Makers are obligated to deliver by T+21.

4\.  Once T+21 arrives, they kick the can some more, and maybe a few deliveries spill out, resulting in the price surges we see every T+21 days.

5\.  The resulting relationship from major option expirations is T+35 -> T+21 infinite loop

6\.  You can follow this example with January 15th options expiration.

    1.  January 15 T+35 -> February 24th

    2.  February 24th T+21 -> March 25th

    3.  March 25th T+21 -> April 26th

    4.  April 26th T+21 -> May 25th

-   April 16th's T+35 delivery from the Clearing House arrives on May 24th and should initiate another T+21 loop if the theory holds.

-   January 15th's T+21 loop will hit again on May 25th.

-   Combination of #6 and #7 could be a Wombo Combo.

Cheers! :)
