GME Timeline DD: Part Deux
==========================

| Author       | Source       | 
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|  [u/ebbilepsy](https://www.reddit.com/user/ebbilepsy/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/comments/mfd27m/gme_timeline_dd_part_deux/) | 

---

[DD](https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/search?q=flair_name%3A%22DD%22&restrict_sr=1)

Hello my fellow ape brethren! For those unfamiliar I wrote my first timeline piece which can be found here: <https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/comments/lvd6dd/gme_timeline_dd/> I highly recommend if you haven't checked it out yet you do so before proceeding with this DD. I posted the first timeline on March 1st and it rotted in the dungeons of GME DD like an over-ripe banana until someone thought to repost it March 25th and turn it into some delicious banana bread. Needless to say it must have tasted good to some of you apes, as it passed the 1k upvote mark within 24 hours. Whoever you are kind sir, this new DD goes out to you.

We all know how rare a good sequel can be, but I hope part II can live up to the quality of of the first. Kind of like one of my favorite movies of all time, Ace Ventura: When Nature Calls. So without further adieu....

<https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9boHX-hdhEc>

I want to start off where my last DD ended off: ICE CREAM COHEN and just how critical I believe that day to be... but first we need to rewind the clock back a little bit to December of 2019 where our story truly begins (side note: it may be helpful to keep my first DD open in a separate window so you can reference the timeline)

December 31st 2019: The float is now cut down to roughly 68 million from a previous total of 102 million earlier in the year. Scion Capital (Michael Bury Hedge Fund) has just purchased 3 million shares of stock. DFV who has been tracking Bury for the better part of 2019 likely sees this and buys his first April 16 2021 Calls:

<https://imgur.com/C9BtG6B>

Nothing too remarkable here right? Well, lets take a look into the lookback feature of Thinkor swim and see exactly what was going on that day in GMEs call options. Specifically on December 20th 2019:

<https://imgur.com/D6jhSmX>

Interesting, a high amount of volume coming in on April 16 '21 $7 Calls. Lets run it forward to the day DFV buys his on December 31st 2019:

<https://imgur.com/HT1PBuo>

As you can see, open interest on April 16th '21 $7 Calls are 6,084 when DFV buys his first 200 April $12's. What are January 15ths '21 looking like?

<https://imgur.com/d17WnTt>

About 1,000,000 worth of shares are bought out of the money for January 15th '21 on the day DFV buys his first April calls. If you go back to DFV's post history, he's been adding these January calls to his arsenal since June 2019. What does this mean? Well, *someone else aside from DFV is making major bets on GME's price increasing*. DFV is seeing this happen, he sees Burry buy in for 3 million shares of GME and he decides he's just keep doing what he does best: FIND DEEP FUCKING VALUE WHEREVER IT CAN BE FOUND.

From December 31st 2019 and on chunk volume comes into these January 15th'21 and April 16th '21 call options ( as well as July '20' and October 20' monthly's). What's interesting is that we hit Covid in March of 2020 and GME's stock takes a complete nose-dive, but the open interest for OTM calls just keeps going up. We get to April 2nd 2020 and GME has declined at $2.85/share and here is the open interest for these calls now:

July and October 20's:

<https://imgur.com/WLJd9b1>

January 15s:

<https://imgur.com/HcMpZb9>

April 21's:

<https://imgur.com/Ms4V0qp>

I don't know about you guys but that is a LOT of OTM calls on GME stock for July '20, October '20, Jan '21, April '21 when its currently trading at $2.85 on April 2nd 2020. (side note: I checked July '21s call option volume and it does not follow this trend of massive volume)

So why is this important? Well GME has been not only been getting hammered by COVID but its also been getting shorted to bankruptcy by hedge funds this entire time (January-April 2020) and failure to deliver rates are through the roof as we approach April 2nd

<https://imgur.com/SpuLKPh>

As you can see in the graph courtesy of [wherearetheshares.com](https://wherearetheshares.com/) FTD's completely crash down to nothing on April 2nd before immediately spiking back up again? Why did that happen? Well April 2nd happens to be the day that Scion Capital buys another 400k shares of GME upping their total position to 3.4 million shares. Also on April 3rd Hestia capital sends out a proxy letter to all shareholders calling out GME's incompetent board of directors. GME's activist shareholders appear to be executing a plan to leverage GME stock out of the "Bankruptcy Jackpot". *THE GAME HAS NOW CHANGED. Buying pressure increases* and rallies the stock price from $2.85/share on April 2nd and FTD's start spiking again as we head to the April 17th 2020 monthly call options.

<https://imgur.com/7DFHmgx>

What's interesting to see in the above picture is all the open interest call options that end up finishing out of the money on April 17th 2020. What I haven't told you until now was that *when you go back and look at the call chain volume and open interest it appears as though* *someone was buying up a lot of just OTM April 17th 2020 short-term calls at the same time bulk orders kept rolling in on deeper OTM July '20, October '20, January '21 and 'April 21 calls.* The hedge funds who have now taken up a massive short position on GME panic at the new buying pressure triggered on April 2nd and start pumping out synthetic FTD's to cover their worst short positions while driving the price below $5 a share to ensure that all those April 17 '20 calls finish OTM. But it appears that the damage from all their massive short selling has already been done, because there are now tons and tons of OTM calls set well into the future. As long as GME survives and transitions into a business of the future the bill on these FTD's will come due one day. The only way to delay this from happening is to keep pumping out more FTD's whenever GME stock starts to go up. *This pumping of synthetic FTDs will now become a pattern whenever buying pressure considerably increases on GME stock, especially* *whenever Ryan Cohen is involved* Proof:

<https://imgur.com/FCB4jhd>

As you can see in the picture FTDs go bananas: -After Ryan Cohen buys 9 million shares of GME at the end of August -After Ryan Cohen declares he's in negotiations to join the board in December. -After Ryan Cohen officially joins the board on January 10th (not updated on graph but data is below:)

FTD's data set after January 10th:

1/15 892,653

1/19 1,498,576

1/20 1,007,562

1/21 1,438,994

1/22 273,600

1/25 275,113

1/26 2,099,572

1/27 1,972,862

1/28 1,032,986

1/29 138,179

I'm not a data scientist but there seems to be an intrinsic link between the number of FTD's and this Ryan Cohen guy. Its almost as if *GME's intrinsic value increases* *while the short position strength decreases* whenever he is involved in something with the company.

So how does this all tie in with those July '20, October '20, Jan '21 and April '21 OTM call options?

Lets see how those July 17th 2020 Calls finished on July 17th 2020:

<https://imgur.com/h4ZWGBW>

As you can see there is a massive amount of calls that finish OTM.

How about those October 16th 2020s? (RC has bought 9 million shares end of August 2020)<https://imgur.com/7egvHdQ>

Looks like a good chunk of those calls are starting to finish ITM now. Thanks to RCs efforts to reform the company and in spite of all the FTDs to suppress the price.

Now we can move forward to January 13th 2021. Why this date? Well on Sunday January 10th it was announced that Ryan Cohen officially joined Gamestop's board. GME's shares price bounces off this news from $17.69 to $34.40 by January 13th. January 13th is also the same day DFV posts his YOLO update to wallstreet bets and people take notice on his big gains and FOMO sets in.

<https://imgur.com/lLKe7ef>

(Please note the open interest on those $35 January 15th calls circled in red)

Lets take a look at those January 15th '21 Call Options finish:

<https://imgur.com/43prjhg>

January 15th 2021 GME finishes at $35.50 and those $35 options finish ITM. Now if we recall a lot of those sub $35 calls were purchased back by April 2nd 2020 before the short squeeze started right? (scroll back up and look).

Can we surmise that whomever made those purchases held those calls all the way through to this day of expiration and rolled them back, and that coupled with natural retail buying volume +RC joining the board news caused the share price to pop up? We have no way of knowing for sure, but it seems likely.

(Also a side note: Most of those January 15th calls were purchased at the $3-$13 strike prices by April 2nd 2020 and the volume and open interest on the options up to $30 dont start going up until July and August. The $35 strike price point didn't open up until 12/1/2020....so theres no definitive way of showing that they are somehow "linked" and that the lower strikes are getting rolled into higher strikes as they open up. This applies to ALL the options I'm looking at)Either way we can see what else happened in the future call options chains at around those price levels and figure out if other entities or persons were making bets on GME at those price levels for later monthly expirations. So lets look at them

Here are the February 19th 2021's :

<https://imgur.com/j92jifH>(note open interest at the $35 and $40 strikes)

The infamous March 19ths:

<https://imgur.com/3y9vFTY>

(note the $40 open interest and incoming volume for the $39 strikes)

And the April 16ths:<https://imgur.com/wYjf6HI>(note the open interest at the $35 and $40 strikes)

Ok so big deal... some people bought some calls on GME prior to the January runup to $400+ prices and cashed out rich what's the big deal?

Well lets take a look at three of those call options on February 4th 2021 after Robinhood and the hedge funds pulled their shenanigans and crashed GME's share price down to $53.50 a share:

February 19ths:<https://imgur.com/csJRhZT>

March 19ths:

<https://imgur.com/jNfqy7p>

April 16ths:

<https://imgur.com/wpGXANH>

As you can see the open interest on these contracts at the $35 and $40 Februarys, the $39 March's and the $30 and $35 Aprils are still quite high. *Whoever is holding these contracts rode them up all the way to GME's peak of $480/share or whatever the hell it was and rode it all the way back down again and never sold. Why?* <https://imgur.com/fLbmxKq>

*Because they saw the DEEP. FUCKING. VALUE. Just like he did. When he bought the dip at $38.70 on February 19th.*

​ <https://imgur.com/eUB27M2> ME-FUCKING- OW!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Thats how a kitty buys the fucking dip.

The shorts had crashed the price down but they can only push it so far because the calls options sitting at these $35-40 prices are *the intrinsic value* of GME now and there's just something about them that keeps the shorts from being able to drive down to $0. GME ends up finishing February 19th at $40.59 (thanks to DFV doubling down on the front lines) and all those call options from $30-$40 finish ITM. Reinvigorated GMEs stock bumps up $5 a share into the $45 range and is just barely hanging onto life when when a certain person posts a picture of an ice cream cone....

And now we are back to where we had left off in the beginning of this DD. February 24th and GME explodes up to $168 a share and life is breathed back into the short squeeze. GME settles down and finishes the February 26th monthly's at $101.74

February 26th calls:

<https://imgur.com/gxt8T3t>

March 19th Calls: <https://imgur.com/AhUBoqd>

April 16th Calls:

<https://imgur.com/4Ym8eZQ>

Note the open interest at the $100 strike prices. Why the $100's? Because this becomes the *new intrinsic value* of GME. Why do I say that? Because after Februarys 24th GME's price then slowly staircase climbs all the way up to $347 before we have an epic crash on March 10th and a subsequent slide all the way down to $116 dollars a share for a closing of $120.34 on March 24th and a subsequent rebound off that floor to $181.

<https://imgur.com/BOJ7gct>

Note the open interest on those calls in the sub $115 strike price range including the $100's mentioned from above. Remember, these calls were ITM on February 26th after Ryan Cohen tweeted his ice cream cone on February 24th. The shorts ran a two week short campaign with two massively epic crashes, a huge amount of FUD on the GME/WSB's message boards, and negative slander all over the news media. But they couldn't drive it below that $115. Just like they couldn't drive it past $38 back in February.

So what does this all mean? I'm not quite sure and I don't know if there is anyway for anyone to know....maybe not even DFV (but Im not gonna bet against it). We know the FTD's declined in the middle of February when GME was at $40 a share and we can anticipate that the FTD's are through the roof since February 24th but we don't have access to that data yet. The call option chain history tells a very interesting story when you look back on it with the benefit of hindsight and when sync it up with a timeline of important GME events. The upcoming April 16th '21 calls are the last monthly calls we have left when we peer back in time to April 2nd 2020. We can also say with almost certainty that had they not shut down trading on GME at the end of January, GME would have squeezed due to the insane buying pressure that was coming from all those calls being rolled back and retail FOMO buying pressure. And that's what I keep going back to at the end of all this.

Buying Pressure. FTD's. Ryan Cohen.

The only way to overcome this insanely powerful weapon the hedge funds have in FTD's is to have equally insane buying pressure. But where is that going to come from? Back in January I literally think that buying pressure came from retail FOMO. But this isn't January anymore and retail buying isnt coming back like it did then. Everyone of you apes who believes in GME is already in the game and are already pot committed. If youre not pot committed by now you likely will never be....anyone else have family or friends who just completely reject the idea of investing in gamestop when you bring it up? I sure have had a lot of those experiences. To an outsider who isnt yet invested, GME is a dying business and a meme stock and we are all risky daredevils for buying into it.

What about our whale friends? A lot of people have written DD's suggesting that the buying pressure would come from a gamma squeeze forced by the whale hedge funds, but none of that stuff has come to fruition. The March 19th and March 26th call options chains seemed like they were ripe for gamma squeezes and both times GME traded sideways and nothing happened. Our whale friends are out there, but are they capable of making the squeeze happen? *Without a change in the intrinsic value* of GME I don't see them committing the financial resources to push it forward to that level.

Intrinsic Value. There it is again. *Hey Alexa, define Intrinsic Value:*

Intrinsic value is a measure of what an asset is worth. This measure is arrived at by means of an objective calculation or complex financial model, rather than using the currently trading market price of that asset.

To these hedge funds, GME is only worth $100-115 dollars tops and that's on a good day. That needs to change. And the thing capable of making that change is GME itself. If we go by past history, we have seen that GME is capable of delivering this intrinsic value:

-When Ryan Cohen became a owner of 9 million shares on August

-When Ryan Cohen wrote a scathing letter to the board on November 16th

-When Ryan Cohen started negotiating his way onto the board in December 17th

-When Ryan Cohen joined the board on January 10th.

and finally:

When Ryan Cohen tweeted a picture of an ice cream cone on February 24th??????

Well that doesn't make any fucking sense!!!!!!!!!!!!

Or does it? Ill just leave excerpt from GME's recent 10K here and you can draw your own conclusions.

<https://imgur.com/rpA0Qkv>

And let Ace say the rest:

<https://youtu.be/tuhPPOXnyKo?t=148>

________________________________________________________________________________________________________

TLDR: GAIN A WRINKLE. READ THE DD YOU APE.

Disclaimer: I am a crayon eating ape. All information contained in this post is publicly available. My thoughts and speculation are not to be interpreted as financial advise and my statements are for amusement purposes only. Each individual should think and make their own decisions when it comes to their investments and the information contained in this post.
