I Figured It Out. The Simplest Answer Is Usually The Right One.
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| Author       | Source       | 
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|  [u/possibly6](https://www.reddit.com/user/possibly6/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/user/possibly6/) | 

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[DD 👨‍🔬](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22DD%20%F0%9F%91%A8%E2%80%8D%F0%9F%94%AC%22&restrict_sr=1)

Sup Apes

Not financial advice in the slightest. I am retarded.

First and foremost, before I begin, I honestly (if you couldn't tell by the title) think I cracked the code. I'll show you why as you dive into this DD, but the simplicity of it all when you realize it will have you sitting there thinking "wow, I am retarded. How did I not notice this?"

Without further ado, my one request as is per all [u/possibly6](https://www.reddit.com/u/possibly6/) posts is to play something that fits the vibe. For today, that is this: <https://open.spotify.com/track/49X0LAl6faAusYq02PRAY6?si=2892c25c9beb4a26>

A preface, I admit that previous analysis has been incorrect. Not all of it, but for the most part the recent GME analysis has not been on point. I own it, and all it does it make me scratch my head looking for data points I may have missed, because I've never encountered something as hard to predict as GME using BASIC (key word) technical analysis. What I've realized is i really need to think outside the box here, and not take the approach I would with a traditional stock.

In terms of SPY, that's been more or less spot on. Won't be going too in depth on that today, I have so much to say for that as well. But, so far the count has been holding up.

onto GME. For those that follow my twitter, I tweeted this today:

[noice?](https://preview.redd.it/ptdjbfmj08f71.png?width=1156&format=png&auto=webp&s=69e68226a08052df79083d1d27d844b543bcd978)

[noice.](https://preview.redd.it/sklyn75o08f71.png?width=1032&format=png&auto=webp&s=8cfec712872d49126af6c85aeb3154f5594005a1)

okay, so what. This is super basic Fibonacci TA. what's so special about it?

And this my friends is why I have been incorrect in my previous assertions. I wasn't looking big picture enough. I was analyzing GME like any other ticker I normally would, which don't get me wrong works in the uptrends, but does NOT work to predict the end of a downtrend technically speaking.

On a super basic level, we can expect a wave 2 to retrace ideally 61.8% of the entire wave 1 move. This would have theoretically put GME at a low of around 203/204. That failed, 78.6% failed, 1:1 of A failed, you get the gist. It had me scratching my head. Was I missing something?

Nothing is unpredictable or unexplainable, the issue is there are so many ways to predict an outcome, how can you be sure your hypothesis is correct?

anyway, I decided after being incorrect in my supposed bottom targets time and time again, I took a step back to see what was really going on.

Now for the analysis so simple you're gonna read it and think to yourself, "wow, how did I not think of that?"

I've seen so many "we are here" posts when compared to the previous cycle with no real data to back it up. Well, I present to you, my OCD project. Why GME has been so stagnant and how we can predict a reversal.

So what did I do? I did what any retard who makes incorrect predictions would do, I counted. day by day. each daily candle. I started from the top of the March FTD cycle as that was the last completed cycle with the slower rip and the longer lasting dip.

[DUH](https://preview.redd.it/5indm7cg68f71.png?width=2012&format=png&auto=webp&s=0cc50c001afd859d46553c2667bcc53ae155b9ac)

On the surface, first of all I can't believe I haven't seen anyone else take this approach. It's pretty obvious at this point that GME moves cyclically. I won't dwell on t+21 or t+35 whatever, that doesn't really play a role in my analysis. What I can tell you is that we should theoretically have 3-5 more days of stagnation before we begin to move, at least when comparing previous cycles.

Let's dive deeper.

Weekly chart (this is where it really started to click):

[voila](https://preview.redd.it/yd9vmz8c78f71.png?width=2366&format=png&auto=webp&s=65c1cd482168e90a854ea196c6dc074ed05a77cd)

take a minute and study the candles. Fuck whatever chart patterns patterns you think you see, that's irrelevant right now. The most basic answer is usually correct.

Okay, so today marked day 39 of stagnation, the last cycle had 43 days of stagnation since the march high before the cycle started to ramp up again. If this theory is correct, we should theoretically see another few days of boring action before really ramping up next week. BUT, we should also, at least if the candle patterns match up, begin to slowly uptrend from here into next week, but don't expect any face ripping quite yet.

Onto the fibs:

[.854 in blue](https://preview.redd.it/k158nkj588f71.png?width=2486&format=png&auto=webp&s=a5238347eb4ac657c878a8f14f61dd1c91c0abb7)

this is a daily view, in typical TA, to see if a trend is bullish or bearish , you want to see candles close above/below a significant level to affirm your bias. In this case, we broke below 150.15 today, but closed above. This hasn't always necessarily proved true for GME, but for reference, if you look at the first red candle to touch the .618 level (gold) you'll see it actually closed below, which in hindsight was a que to expect more downside in the future, but I bought there anyway lol.

From here, if the weekly candles replicate themselves, which so far they have pretty accurately, we can expect a doji candle for the week.

[doji](https://preview.redd.it/k3wklyua98f71.png?width=625&format=png&auto=webp&s=58c7ed76a4bc5d75d2feb822851db07bbf9a9ab5)

[yes](https://preview.redd.it/6h5nektf98f71.png?width=1272&format=png&auto=webp&s=72cf23375b7d5da6a332c6e7bac5884d1a278b94)

to form this pattern, price will likely break above this weeks high, though settle back down close to this week's opening price of around 162. IE, I predict this week we will close right around 160 if this analysis holds true (ish)

Normally this type of analysis will make you lose a lot of money on normal stocks, as they are not quite cyclical like this, but GME is obviously very far from normal.

Another reason I think today marked a low for the week, besides the bounce off a critical fib, fib time extensions. As we made a new low today within wave 2 (of around 148), the trend is (was) technically still bearish. With fib time extensions, we can often predict the end of a trend. Fib numbers are everywhere. I measured the length of the primary wave 1 (120 ish to 344) to get fib numbers in relation to that time period, visualized:

[time extensions](https://preview.redd.it/rgr6lo06a8f71.png?width=2814&format=png&auto=webp&s=9d5bed5f4d2de4026d96d2f1f4c7364970d265db)

You can see at the 50% level (white) this was seemingly the break of the trend, as we made a lower low but began to uptrend. The head fake. obviously we kept dipping, but this also narrows down our turn date targets, next one being, you guessed it, tomorrow (purple .786 level).

IT GETS BETTER!

The last cycle was a bit more wonky with the length and timing of the upside run, but low and behold, the .786 time extension of the move marked the very lowest of the cycle. this was march earnings.

[purple .786 time extension marked the low of a wave 2 in march](https://preview.redd.it/q14aewvza8f71.png?width=1382&format=png&auto=webp&s=8a97b7beb2fdb75a5803b12f42de7c9882fab4d7)

I have many more DD's to write but I don't want to compile all the information into this one. In terms of upside targets, I'll just give you one short term one to watch for with today's low because I fucking LOVE how the targets line up.

Within a wave 3, the target for a super bullish wave 1 is a .618 extension of the larger wave 1 move within the overarching 3 (sorry, confusing but here's the visualization)

[.618 in green](https://preview.redd.it/ju1kur75c8f71.png?width=2794&format=png&auto=webp&s=1ee11e5bd0de0223266619355608e54500e4ced5)

Here's why I fucking love this, the target lines up EXACTLY with the gap down we had (green box) on earnings. fucking EXACTLY. Whenever this happens, I'm insanely confident that my count is correct if there is more than one method to predict a possible short term upside target. If you trade gaps, you would arrive at the exact same conclusion as EW, at least for a 1st target for a wave 1 within 3 of 3 of 3.

Anyway, watch for a short term rejection around 290, but I doubt the retrace will be steep, as it wasn't in the previous 2 cycles.

I think that about covers everything I wanted to talk about. I don't think this week will be particularly exciting unless we get some black swan event, next week though? The fun begins.

shoutout the shills

[nice](https://preview.redd.it/tbtir2m5g8f71.png?width=656&format=png&auto=webp&s=db49647e142cb8e5d27976a66364fb113b6a5ad1)

TLDR: just read it, lots of pretty pictures. Tidal wave incoming 🌊

edit: forgot to show you my log scale pitchfork, finally tested the lower bound:

<https://preview.redd.it/52vjy8gvg8f71.png?width=2642&format=png&auto=webp&s=b806c6ed2bc9a899aae06ef1d08e503412cc4a4f>
