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Create 2021-07-19-Elliot-Waves-GME-S&P500-and-the-Beginning-of-the-End.md
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Elliott Waves, GME, The S&P 500, The Beginning Of The End 🚀
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============================================================
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| Author | Source |
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| :----: | :----: |
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| [u/possibly6](https://www.reddit.com/user/possibly6/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/onr1bz/elliott_waves_gme_the_sp_500_the_beginning_of_the/) |
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---
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[DD 👨🔬](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22DD%20%F0%9F%91%A8%E2%80%8D%F0%9F%94%AC%22&restrict_sr=1)
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Sup apes
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not financial advice. I am a degenerate that draws on my computer screen for a living.
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I don't even know where to start, other than play this song before reading: <https://open.spotify.com/track/1E0EOstQRm7YMhFpmDJzaB?si=084bbbb871884c54>
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What a day! GME was relatively flat but the broad market was a SHIT SHOW! I have a lot to go over, so strap in and get ready for some pretty colors.
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A few weeks back I made [this post ](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/of4zjh/elliott_waves_gme_wen_the_fck_moon/)going over GME and SPY levels, I believe I said I expected 436 to hit before a sharp selloff. Before going over GME, I'd like to once again update you on my SPY levels.
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As an EW trader you have to adapt to structures as they form and let the trends play out, for this reason I am updating my targets. Hate me if you want, the first one hit. I just see more upside from here, but NOT MUCH!
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Here's an hourly view, see if you can understand what you're looking at before I explain:
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[](https://preview.redd.it/jhxjyqcoa9c71.png?width=2806&format=png&auto=webp&s=c712dac1994fcf74221cbd84a8d3969ee503a22c)
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Hourly
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If you looked at this and came to the conclusion that there is likely more upside, that is correct. This is because if you look at the minute count (white) you can see today was actually a wave 4. Looking deeper, the minuette count (purple, waves within the white wave 3) you can clearly see the 5 waves up, followed by the ABC down to complete the 4.
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So what does that mean from here?
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Short answer, more upside, at least imho. Today looked to have completed a 4 of 5 of 5 of 5, originally I thought 436 ish would be the top, however after closely exacting the structure, I see one last push. The last hoorah.
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Also, put yourself in the shoes of every retail investor that isn't aware of all the bullshit surrounding the markets. They see "covid delta variant sparks wall street selloff" and think the market is crashing today.
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If I'm right, I'd expect more green out of SPY from here, to put it bluntly, I see 444, 447, and 460 as final 5 of 5 of 5 of 5 targets. These are spread out as I haven't seen the new trend play out, as it starts to develop we can re evaluate, but these are BASE targets. Could go higher could go lower, or it could just fall and this entire analysis is wrong.
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Something to consider, today our C wave (purple, final leg down of wave 4) actually hit a super bearish extension level at 2.618. When this happens, lots of speculation that a downtrend is starting is valid. A tip to see if this is the case, is if this truly is the beginning of a bear market, we WILL NOT break above the previous high of our B wave at 436.5 ish. If we break above, think the trend is still bullish, as I expect it to.
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Also, the VIX! What a day!
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[](https://preview.redd.it/ztvx3koac9c71.png?width=2778&format=png&auto=webp&s=3589d30fb8ef8ad1f7e73915c2a1aa1c7864dfa0)
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Finished up 21%
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Love to see it, but I wouldn't give it too much attention until it breaks 30. That's when shit will really get interesting.
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I'm also expecting the VIX to settle back down into the week, based on gaps and bearish divergence.
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Pro tip: when looking at RSI, if the stock makes a higher high on a lower RSI reading or vice versa with lows, we can expect a reversal.
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[](https://preview.redd.it/0rlfsdz4d9c71.png?width=738&format=png&auto=webp&s=dc7489d093d8a71002b46bf444880e66bd7aaf87)
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bearish divergence
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[](https://preview.redd.it/6hyv4rj2d9c71.png?width=598&format=png&auto=webp&s=8d566815f1cd248526b3707b43010afd17c51e8a)
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bullish divergence
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Now onto GME.
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real quick before I begin, here's the bull case visualized over the next few weeks/months:
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[](https://preview.redd.it/fwvd807ld9c71.png?width=1872&format=png&auto=webp&s=dbcf56b837d80c199315d69de47ef936cf421b43)
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visualized wave 3 trajectory
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this is just a roadmap assuming all common ratios are hit, which GME doesn't always do as it's anything but a typical stock, but nonetheless, good to visualize and manifest.
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short term, this feels exactly like May right before we ran to 344.
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Here are possible minuette wave 3 targets
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[](https://preview.redd.it/pszko3nlf9c71.png?width=2422&format=png&auto=webp&s=6e850fec6835a4c41277a4d93558af22a502a5b6)
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15m
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Personally, I don't care too much for the intraday action. What I'm happy about is the uptrend is finally holding after a sharp 1.618:1 C wave down from our recent high (154)
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I need the structure to play out more before assigning more targets, but as for now, we seemingly completed our minuette 2 at the .618 retrace level
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[](https://preview.redd.it/dc76lrdxf9c71.png?width=2022&format=png&auto=webp&s=23de19c90ef57935c24844097a2236e297f5c1c2)
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minuette 2 completion
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Do note though, it is possible this was just the A and B completing. In this case watch for a low of around 157.75 tomorrow. Here's why on a macro scale:
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[](https://preview.redd.it/itts1qybg9c71.png?width=1828&format=png&auto=webp&s=f11d0312e7dbab3d36027c4ff31ef9e78cc47d9a)
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15m
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Note the rejection at the .786 level, this is common in B wave retraces. To find our final C target, we can expect in a typical zig zag A and C share a 1:1 fib relationship, putting C at 157.5 from today's high. This is completely invalidated if we break above 179.47, but doesn't rule out a running/expanded flat.
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TLDR for this nonsensical macro analysis, buy the dip if there is one.
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Visualized:
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[](https://preview.redd.it/8scpemaog9c71.png?width=2400&format=png&auto=webp&s=5c700f59a9286290dddf687b45011bce60340fe0)
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1:1 at 157.75
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Again, all that matters is higher highs/lows relative to 151. Intraday swings I could care less about, I've been all in this bitch.
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The overarching setup on GME is bullish as fuck... 1 2 within 1 2 within 1 2, starting 3 of 3 of 3 now. the fabled elliott tsunami. Let's see if it lives up to my expectations.
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Tomorrow marks t+2 for option expiration settlement of the monthlies that expired on 7/16, could be nothing, could be huge. I can promise whatever happens I FEEL nothing.
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I leave you with this.
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[](https://preview.redd.it/dh9xaojjh9c71.png?width=1178&format=png&auto=webp&s=e26b261f6be152525e70d1f6770ca142260e18aa)
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:)
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I'm out, thanks for reading! If you like intraday analysis, consider following my [twitter](https://twitter.com/gavinmayreal). I'm pretty active about updating levels/charting out SPY on there every day.
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If video analysis is you thing, you might like my [Youtube](https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCw-8U3JJeT3_pz1rOkdgzbA) (I'm not really a youtuber anymore, retired years ago. Started up again by posting EW analysis to try and educate, nothing more. I know some people are against pumping socials and I totally understand, but it might help you understand my analysis a bit more by watching)
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JACKED!
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TLDR: uhh buy and hodl? 🌊 🚀
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I can feel it coming
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edit: regarding the mod drama, fuck allat. I'm here for the DD and my DD is always crossposted, diversify your subs not your investments ;)
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edit: redacting part about market crashing when people expect it, GME is a black swan. expect the unexpected.
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