diff --git a/Due-Diligence/The-OTC-Conspiracy-by-nayboyer2/2021-05-05-The-OTC-Conspiracy-Part-2.md b/Due-Diligence/The-OTC-Conspiracy-by-nayboyer2/2021-05-05-The-OTC-Conspiracy-Part-2.md new file mode 100644 index 0000000..ae1b791 --- /dev/null +++ b/Due-Diligence/The-OTC-Conspiracy-by-nayboyer2/2021-05-05-The-OTC-Conspiracy-Part-2.md @@ -0,0 +1,198 @@ +The OTC Conspiracy (Part 2) - Shining Some Light into the Dark Pool data (March Update) +======================================================================================= + +| Author | Source | +| :-------------: |:-------------:| +| [u/nayboyer2](https://www.reddit.com/user/nayboyer2/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/n5q76p/the_otc_conspiracy_part_2_shining_some_light_into/) | + +--- + +[DD 👨‍🔬](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22DD%20%F0%9F%91%A8%E2%80%8D%F0%9F%94%AC%22&restrict_sr=1) + +I'll try to make this post short and sweet! + +Please refer to my previous post ([The OTC Conspiracy](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/myf505/probably_the_last_dd_youll_ever_need_to_read_the/)), which I updated with some charts and will continue to update with weekly data as it becomes available from the [FINRA OTC website](https://otctransparency.finra.org/otctransparency/OtcIssueData). + +For this DD, I took a look at the monthly OTC data for GME vs 33 other "popular" stocks. I chose the stocks more or less at random based on Boomer-ism, personal interest, or stock price. I'd be happy to include some additional ticker requests in the next update. + +Let's start with the monthly OTC trading data for GME. + +Table 1: GME Monthly OTC Data + +[![r/Superstonk - The OTC Conspiracy (Part 2) - Shining Some Light into the Dark Pool data (March Update)](https://preview.redd.it/xagcvi1urcx61.png?width=699&format=png&auto=webp&s=59d24224edd893bff98bad42082bd42c5a2d5558)](https://preview.redd.it/xagcvi1urcx61.png?width=699&format=png&auto=webp&s=59d24224edd893bff98bad42082bd42c5a2d5558) + +A major increase in number of OTC trades and a major decrease in average shares/trade + +For all those visual apes: + +[![r/Superstonk - The OTC Conspiracy (Part 2) - Shining Some Light into the Dark Pool data (March Update)](https://preview.redd.it/ujdumvoc4cx61.png?width=699&format=png&auto=webp&s=d7a663e9f9cf1b3ea761329518d136bcf16fe310)](https://preview.redd.it/ujdumvoc4cx61.png?width=699&format=png&auto=webp&s=d7a663e9f9cf1b3ea761329518d136bcf16fe310) + +Increasing number of OTC trades + +[![r/Superstonk - The OTC Conspiracy (Part 2) - Shining Some Light into the Dark Pool data (March Update)](https://preview.redd.it/drp10zbl4cx61.png?width=745&format=png&auto=webp&s=e46a18e14bc7d8bbd21a854a493fd725193abf61)](https://preview.redd.it/drp10zbl4cx61.png?width=745&format=png&auto=webp&s=e46a18e14bc7d8bbd21a854a493fd725193abf61) + +GME OTC trades are getting smaller and smaller + +That's interesting. So an increasing number of smaller trades (aka high frequency trading). I wonder how these metrics compare to other stocks... + +Let's start from the beginning. + +December 2020 + +[![r/Superstonk - The OTC Conspiracy (Part 2) - Shining Some Light into the Dark Pool data (March Update)](https://preview.redd.it/bbhpm3g6acx61.png?width=1216&format=png&auto=webp&s=d1245f7fcb0247a1788844ce5271edcd4f2ab439)](https://preview.redd.it/bbhpm3g6acx61.png?width=1216&format=png&auto=webp&s=d1245f7fcb0247a1788844ce5271edcd4f2ab439) + +GME with less than 500,000 OTC trades in December 2020 + +[![r/Superstonk - The OTC Conspiracy (Part 2) - Shining Some Light into the Dark Pool data (March Update)](https://preview.redd.it/jcxj1y4bdcx61.png?width=1213&format=png&auto=webp&s=8efc3fcdb1516ed73d5a2a54e98110ce260ec121)](https://preview.redd.it/jcxj1y4bdcx61.png?width=1213&format=png&auto=webp&s=8efc3fcdb1516ed73d5a2a54e98110ce260ec121) + +The number of shares/trade looks fairly typical compared to the rest + +What about % of Float traded OTC in December? + +[![r/Superstonk - The OTC Conspiracy (Part 2) - Shining Some Light into the Dark Pool data (March Update)](https://preview.redd.it/o14u19bodcx61.png?width=1221&format=png&auto=webp&s=f1e655efcb99f04c3a0fa009569a129ce5e05784)](https://preview.redd.it/o14u19bodcx61.png?width=1221&format=png&auto=webp&s=f1e655efcb99f04c3a0fa009569a129ce5e05784) + +Over 410% of the GME float traded OTC in December + +January 2021 + +[![r/Superstonk - The OTC Conspiracy (Part 2) - Shining Some Light into the Dark Pool data (March Update)](https://preview.redd.it/f2d2sw13icx61.png?width=1226&format=png&auto=webp&s=f9051eeb10975dfa383b6c8ef7419403febd8fe9)](https://preview.redd.it/f2d2sw13icx61.png?width=1226&format=png&auto=webp&s=f9051eeb10975dfa383b6c8ef7419403febd8fe9) + +GME OTC trades markedly increased (13.75x) from December (420,166) to January (5,777,645). Only AMC, Tesla, and Apple had more OTC trades in January. + +[![r/Superstonk - The OTC Conspiracy (Part 2) - Shining Some Light into the Dark Pool data (March Update)](https://preview.redd.it/xf2d72pficx61.png?width=1222&format=png&auto=webp&s=f31d78b3565be94f030df9302594a14c7c00a2a4)](https://preview.redd.it/xf2d72pficx61.png?width=1222&format=png&auto=webp&s=f31d78b3565be94f030df9302594a14c7c00a2a4) + +A substantial decrease in shares/trade, from 263 in December to 90 in January + +What about % of Float traded OTC in January? + +[![r/Superstonk - The OTC Conspiracy (Part 2) - Shining Some Light into the Dark Pool data (March Update)](https://preview.redd.it/yj200ux2jcx61.png?width=1220&format=png&auto=webp&s=6e990d1f76814a3fcdb24b541a6c0f1573d47eb9)](https://preview.redd.it/yj200ux2jcx61.png?width=1220&format=png&auto=webp&s=6e990d1f76814a3fcdb24b541a6c0f1573d47eb9) + +Little bit of an outlier, with almost 2000% of the GME float traded OTC in January + +February 2021 + +[![r/Superstonk - The OTC Conspiracy (Part 2) - Shining Some Light into the Dark Pool data (March Update)](https://preview.redd.it/1hjg1qdjjcx61.png?width=1228&format=png&auto=webp&s=04f55c207cb04d50f10dbedc8c2c4a9cdc9afb6f)](https://preview.redd.it/1hjg1qdjjcx61.png?width=1228&format=png&auto=webp&s=04f55c207cb04d50f10dbedc8c2c4a9cdc9afb6f) + +Another increase in the number of trades made OTC. Only AMC had more. + +Only AMC had more OTC trades than GME in February 2021. + +[![r/Superstonk - The OTC Conspiracy (Part 2) - Shining Some Light into the Dark Pool data (March Update)](https://preview.redd.it/nvxw191ujcx61.png?width=1226&format=png&auto=webp&s=8790195664be905be35aae0879e3d1c298b9f3d4)](https://preview.redd.it/nvxw191ujcx61.png?width=1226&format=png&auto=webp&s=8790195664be905be35aae0879e3d1c298b9f3d4) + +Further decrease in the number of shares/trade, from 90 in January to 39 in February + +Only Tesla (36.42) and Sony (37.9) had lower shares/trade than GME (39.0) in the OTC marketplace in February. + +What about % of Float traded OTC in February? + +[![r/Superstonk - The OTC Conspiracy (Part 2) - Shining Some Light into the Dark Pool data (March Update)](https://preview.redd.it/6jov1s60lcx61.png?width=1222&format=png&auto=webp&s=2426aa735011c5b88468fe183085bfcf46686d52)](https://preview.redd.it/6jov1s60lcx61.png?width=1222&format=png&auto=webp&s=2426aa735011c5b88468fe183085bfcf46686d52) + +Still an outlier, with over 1130% of the GME float traded OTC + +March 2021 + +[![r/Superstonk - The OTC Conspiracy (Part 2) - Shining Some Light into the Dark Pool data (March Update)](https://preview.redd.it/8c9zmwp5mcx61.png?width=1219&format=png&auto=webp&s=d65aa084618085a2679daf917037b2576b812c5c)](https://preview.redd.it/8c9zmwp5mcx61.png?width=1219&format=png&auto=webp&s=d65aa084618085a2679daf917037b2576b812c5c) + +Only Tesla (7.89 million) had more OTC trades than GME (7.67 million) in March + +[![r/Superstonk - The OTC Conspiracy (Part 2) - Shining Some Light into the Dark Pool data (March Update)](https://preview.redd.it/yoj8b8zmmcx61.png?width=1226&format=png&auto=webp&s=c71a4f150235664a0a10230fb2ad707edc69ce4b)](https://preview.redd.it/yoj8b8zmmcx61.png?width=1226&format=png&auto=webp&s=c71a4f150235664a0a10230fb2ad707edc69ce4b) + +GME (32.87) had the lowest shares/trade of any stock in March + +[![r/Superstonk - The OTC Conspiracy (Part 2) - Shining Some Light into the Dark Pool data (March Update)](https://preview.redd.it/xd2zzngvmcx61.png?width=1228&format=png&auto=webp&s=3c6fc76c80238e6369e2f4893d07793b50943698)](https://preview.redd.it/xd2zzngvmcx61.png?width=1228&format=png&auto=webp&s=3c6fc76c80238e6369e2f4893d07793b50943698) + +Only SLGG (1724%) had higher % of Float traded OTC than GME (944%) + +Let's add January, February, and March OTC Trades to get Q1 2021 Total + +[![r/Superstonk - The OTC Conspiracy (Part 2) - Shining Some Light into the Dark Pool data (March Update)](https://preview.redd.it/pwzab4i0hdx61.png?width=1418&format=png&auto=webp&s=efc9c757565f4a77849514d54b56defc9411dba8)](https://preview.redd.it/pwzab4i0hdx61.png?width=1418&format=png&auto=webp&s=efc9c757565f4a77849514d54b56defc9411dba8) + +Only AMC (24.2 million) had more OTC trades than GME (21.2 million) in 2021 + +And what was the % of Float traded OTC in Q1? + +[![r/Superstonk - The OTC Conspiracy (Part 2) - Shining Some Light into the Dark Pool data (March Update)](https://preview.redd.it/qy7rbq5d3ex61.png?width=1198&format=png&auto=webp&s=69ca8be113ca4b1431444886e81c9a2edd1c75b1)](https://preview.redd.it/qy7rbq5d3ex61.png?width=1198&format=png&auto=webp&s=69ca8be113ca4b1431444886e81c9a2edd1c75b1) + +Over 4000% of the GME float was traded OTC in Q1. SLGG and AMC were also over 1000% + +Table 2: + +[![r/Superstonk - The OTC Conspiracy (Part 2) - Shining Some Light into the Dark Pool data (March Update)](https://preview.redd.it/eo9r16vsscx61.png?width=790&format=png&auto=webp&s=6efa5a0028fab5c2c0d7a4a2a113f60657e478c7)](https://preview.redd.it/eo9r16vsscx61.png?width=790&format=png&auto=webp&s=6efa5a0028fab5c2c0d7a4a2a113f60657e478c7) + +Putting it all together + +Conclusions + +Please take a look at my previous post ([The OTC Conspiracy](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/myf505/probably_the_last_dd_youll_ever_need_to_read_the/)) for a more in-depth dive into the weekly OTC data. It also includes a breakdown of the major players in the OTC marketplace. I will continue to update that post as data is released. + +The purpose of this post was to compare the OTC trading of GME vs some other "popular" stocks. + +- The number of monthly GME OTC trades increased over 28x from September 2020 to March 2021. + +- The average shares/trade has decreased every month, from over 400 shares/trade in September to 32 shares/trade in March. + +- Only GME, Tesla, and Sony averaged less than 40 shares/trade in a month. GME has done it twice - each of the last two months. + +- The 32.87 shares/trade average in March was the lowest for any stock across any month. + +- The % of GME float traded OTC has been over 260% every month since September 2020 and increased to almost 2000% in January 2021. + +- In February, another 1131% of the GME float was traded in OTC, followed by 944% in March. + +- The % of float traded OTC is much higher for GME than any of the other stocks that were evaluated. The only exception was SLGG (1724% in March). Shout out to the sluggs! + +- Besides GME (and SLGG in March), only AMC had more than 100% of float traded OTC in any month. + +- If we look at Q1 data, over 4043% of the GME float was traded OTC in Q1 alone. + +- In Q1, only AMC (24.2 million) had more OTC trades than GME (21.2 million). + +- SLGG (1883%) and AMC (1195%) are the only other stocks with over 220% of their floats traded OTC. + +- Including SLGG and AMC, only 6 of the 33 stocks traded over 100% of their floats OTC during Q1. + +- 22 of the 33 had less than 40% of their floats traded OTC during Q1. + +- 19 of the 33 had less than 20% of their floats traded OTC during Q1. + +Bananas for Thought + +How did those sneaky Market Makers trade over 4000% of the GME float on just the OTC marketplace during Q1? + +What about those diehard, diamond-handed apes who have been holding bananas since 2020? + +Why have we seen a progressive decrease in GME volume every month? + +- 1.26 billion in January + +- 827.56 million in February + +- 679.79 million in March + +- 172.43 million in April + +- Record lows in May... + +Is the banana factory broken? Are all of the bananas finally drying up? + +Where did they come up with the 172.43 million additional shares that were traded in April? + +What about those April options contracts? Tick tock... + +How many bananas did they "produce" in their factory? + +And how many bananas are they now going to have to buy back???!!! + +OoOoOoOoOo I think they naked... + +TLDR: Buy, HODL, Vote --> tendies!!! (not financial advice) + +Appendix + +OTC Data January - March 2021 (December didn't really fit) + +[![r/Superstonk - The OTC Conspiracy (Part 2) - Shining Some Light into the Dark Pool data (March Update)](https://preview.redd.it/7jistucubex61.png?width=1520&format=png&auto=webp&s=9633d6381bc5171307004bbb844f3bb628d9f993)](https://preview.redd.it/7jistucubex61.png?width=1520&format=png&auto=webp&s=9633d6381bc5171307004bbb844f3bb628d9f993) + +Edit 1: Added January, February, and March to get Q1 2021 Data + +Edit 2: Added Bananas for Thought