diff --git a/Confirmation-Bias-and-Discussion/2021-06-12-Analysis-of-Ryan-Cohens-Tweet-Activity-and-T+21-Dates.md b/Confirmation-Bias-and-Discussion/2021-06-12-Analysis-of-Ryan-Cohens-Tweet-Activity-and-T+21-Dates.md new file mode 100644 index 0000000..8e30761 --- /dev/null +++ b/Confirmation-Bias-and-Discussion/2021-06-12-Analysis-of-Ryan-Cohens-Tweet-Activity-and-T+21-Dates.md @@ -0,0 +1,112 @@ +Cohen has reached the same conclusion as u/Criand's T+21 Net Capital thesis: An analysis of tweet activity and corporate announcements +====================================================================================================================================== + +| Author | Source | +| :-------------: |:-------------:| +| [u/Nalifi](https://www.reddit.com/user/Nalifi/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nycuk4/cohen_has_reached_the_same_conclusion_as_ucriands/) | + +--- + +[DD 👨‍🔬](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22DD%20%F0%9F%91%A8%E2%80%8D%F0%9F%94%AC%22&restrict_sr=1) + +*This is not financial advice. I am a retard who always lets one banana in the bunch he buys go bad because I can't time eating the bananas correctly.* + +This post will re-analyze Cohen's tweets and Gamestop's positive price movements in relation to [u/Criand](https://www.reddit.com/u/Criand/)'s new T+21 net capital thesis. + +First of all I would like to lead you to Criand's new post, "Revisit to Net Capital". + + + +I believe that TA does not apply to our favorite stock (but look forward to Elliot Wave guys proving me wrong), but the initial T+21/T+35 cycles were unique in that they don't rely on normal stock behavior, and instead analyze the unique situation GME is in (excessive shorting, FTD's). Additionally, it has had almost a 100% success rate at predicting price movements. + +I believe the net capital requirement thesis ties this together by eliminating loose ends in the previous theory, such as the shaky T+35 price movements, in addition to providing a solid explanation as to *why* these movements occur. + +I decided to take this opportunity to revisit speculation on Cohen's tweets/Gamestop major news, their timing, and analyze if these were the causes of price movements (and thus not the actual cycles). I decided to investigate by going full retard on my only day off and investigating each news report compared to the net capital cycle. The result has my *tits absolutely, indescribably jacked***:** + +If you'd like to follow along, let's open Criand's beautiful chart - + + + +and take a look with some positive Gamestop news catalysts and tweets from our favorite Ryan Cohen. I'll keep this area to data only and leave speculations for the end. + +1\. The Ice Cream Cone + + + +Ryan Cohen tweets the famous ice cream cone on Feb 24, lining up perfectly with the T+21 net capital requirement date. The price rockets that day. + +2\. Voluntary redemption of senior notes is announced. + + + +GME announces a voluntary early redemption of senior notes on April 13th. Price spike is April 13 AH -- T+14 date is April 15th. The positive news does not correlate with price movement. + +*Side note:* DFV Final Yolo update: April 16th + +3\. Cohen train tweet. + + + +April 25th: Cohen tweets a train coming. South Park. This is one day before the T+21 or 75% Net capital cycle. Additionally: + +4\. Gamestop announces completion of the At-The-Market equity offering program. + +. + +This news is placed directly on the T+21 date. *Price spikes.* + +May 3rd; Gamestop completes voluntary early redemption of senior notes, leading them out of debt. + +T+7 is May 5th, no price movement on this announcement. They also announce acquisition of a 700,000 sq. ft fulfillment center, resulting in *no price movement*. + +May 11; Gamestop tweets man on the moon, T+14 is May 14th, + +May 12, Gamestop Esports twitter profile is launched. + +None of these announcements result in significant price movement. + +May 25, Ryan Cohen tweets "Don't try this at home" at 12:32 AM, midnight before market open on the T+21 cycle the next day. + + + +*Price spike.* + +Later that day, the Gamestop NFT is found. It has a launch date of July 14, 1 day before June 24 T+14 cycle. + +May 29, Cohen tweets "R.I.P. dumb ass", noting that the T+21 cycle has been figured out and the Hedgies. Are. Fuk. + +Speculation: + +Cohen is *fully aware* of the T+21 net capital loop that the hedge funds are trapped in. Given that both good news and hype tweets are clearly insufficient to result in a positive price movement (See: May 3rd, May 11, May 12, April 13), I am highly doubtful that an ice cream cone tweet is enough to drive up the price by over 100%. + +I believe that Cohen has had this figured out since very early on, and that's clear in his tweet behavior on later T+21 dates. + +This can also explain why Gamestop made the choice to conduct a share offering on 6/9 - + +6/9, the Gamestop shareholder meeting, as meme of a date as it may be, is *not* on a significant net capital requirement date, and thus Cohen and friends were well aware that the price would fall again. To counteract negative sentiment, he announces the share offering; effectively, FUD immunity, because any negative movement can be attributed to it. Additionally, it provides *1 billion dollars* in capital for future positive announcements, which he can place on the T+21 dates; for example, the June 24 T+21, which is in close proximity to the Russel rebalancing. Note: So far, only Cohen tweets have lined up with T+21 dates. If positive Gamestop news; an acquisition, a dividend, NFT's, esports deals lines up... oh god. No dates, but those with shares have nothing to worry about - they're in good hands. *Only up.* + +Tl;dr: Cohen is well aware of the T+21 dates and has lined up his own tweets *in clear indication* of it. The 6/9 ATM market offering, although I know many apes including myself were disappointed by, is basically FUD immunity as the price falls in between T+21 cycles. Furthermore, it raises capital for positive corporate announcements which can be lined up with T+21 dates, which so far, only Cohen tweets have lined up with. Price movements are largely irrelevant to news. + +*We're in good hands. If you hodl shares, there's nothing to worry about. HODL!* + +Edit: formatting. If anyone has criticisms, announcements, or additional news that I missed, please comment below. + +*Not financial advice.* + +EDIT: Guys I fucking missed one. + +On March 25, Cohen tweets our smoky teddy, + + + +Lining up with the T+21 date on March 25th. + +With this, out of 18 Cohen tweets since his activity in Gamestop, 4 of them line up with the 5 T+21 cycle days thus far, missing only the first one on January. While it is *possible* that this is a coincidence, given that there's about 180 days since the beginning of all this I don't think it's very likely. If anyone is a statistics legend and could calculate the probability that this is random it would be much appreciated. Also, I don't think there's much of another reason why he would tweet an ice cream cone. + +edit: Reached out to friend who is a statistics major. He just graduated and doesn't want to do math but his response was - "Pretty sure though just from inspection it'll be statistically significant". Statisticians who are *not* lazy bums please comment if you can figure this out! + +edit 2: Update - math wrinkle brain messaged me with: + +"I can't post bc of karma but the probability of having at least 4 right dates on 5 while picking 18 out of 180 is 0.0339% It's an hypergeometric law." + +In basically any statistical research model this is *significant*. As always if anyone has any corrections to this please comment or message me. Tits jacked!