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Why $10,000 per share is just a stop along the way...
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=====================================================
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| Author | Source |
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| :-------------: |:-------------:|
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| [u/ChristianRauchenwald](https://www.reddit.com/user/ChristianRauchenwald/)| [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/comments/m6cebh/why_10000_per_share_is_just_a_stop_along_the_way/) |
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---
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[DD](https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/search?q=flair_name%3A%22DD%22&restrict_sr=1)
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EDIT #11 & 12: New post at <https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/comments/md4emt/elliott_waves_gme_part_2/> ~~and YouTube live 30 minutes before market open on my channel at~~ [~~https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCsc1gAr0t2ME4nzu4PCAnow~~](https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCsc1gAr0t2ME4nzu4PCAnow) ~~(we'll do real-time wave predictions on lower time-frames).~~ Latest Elliott Wave Predictions as of Friday 26th in the recording at <https://youtu.be/8FcqC6lx3Ec>
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EDIT #9 & #10: ~~Going Live Today (24th of March) before market open to~~ Answers to many questions and update my prediction 👉 <https://youtu.be/SsfhQrK4ZmM>
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EDIT #5 (others at the bottom): Thanks for the awards, but unless they are free use your money to invest in a stock you like. I like GME. 💎 🙌
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Let me start by stating the obvious:
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This entire post reflects my personal opinion and is in no way financial advice. And for full transparency I also want you to know that I'm holding shares in GME and would financially benefit from any increase in price.
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Elliot Wave Theory
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[](https://preview.redd.it/ckvxxf66men61.png?width=1833&format=png&auto=webp&s=8f838585bedafa3b10e01afd0ad5799a9e33f85e)
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Elliot Waves for GME - What that means, further below...
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I know most of you likely never heard the name *Ralph Nelson Elliott* and his surprisingly called "*Elliot Wave Theory*". If you want to change that, I recommend you read the free book [here](https://www.elliottwave.com/Free-Reports/Elliott-Wave-Principle). But since I know that most of you are too busy eating crayons I'm going to summarise it quickly.
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[](https://preview.redd.it/82b95bynpen61.gif?format=mp4&s=d9ed382408b797e0eecf0136fd0dd4e983c1b298)
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A rare recording of Ralph Nelson Elliot's early days.
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As you can see, our fellow 🦍 Ralph already had a real hunger for tendies as a little kid. That hunger drove him to use his crayons on charts until he discovered in the 1930s that the stock market always moves in recognizable patterns back, so-called "waves".Simplified there are only two types of waves:
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1. Impulse
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2. Corrective
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Impulsive Waves
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Those are always waves that move the market and consist of five sub-waves because five is the smallest number of waves that can accomplish an overall movement.
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[](https://preview.redd.it/h9jkzo3qnen61.png?width=535&format=png&auto=webp&s=3377a44f22eb8fc0c0302c0051528dbe7d40e359)
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Impulsive Wave on GME Weekly Chart
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Corrective Waves
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Although there are a few different corrective patterns we can say in general that they consist of three waves because that's the smallest number needed to achieve a retracement.
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[](https://preview.redd.it/d5ry6vxloen61.png?width=382&format=png&auto=webp&s=d4f4345f6bc553b8c20d4fc22b551bf73fb825d5)
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Corrective Wave on GME Daily Chart
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*There are a few special cases, and obviously overall more to learn about it, otherwise, there would hardly be an entire book about it.*
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Before we now take our colorful crayons and applied that mindblowing knowledge on GME there are a few other things you should understand:
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1. Each wave can and should contain waves in itself. 🤯 I know... Sounds complicated, and often is, but to give you a simple example, in the 1-2-3-4-5 Impulsive wave above, you'd be able - possibly not on the monthly chart but on weekly or lower - to also fit another 1-2-3-4-5 between 2 and 4.This way you can confirm if your patterns are actually valid.
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2. Each 1-2-3-4-5 Impulsive wave is followed by a corrective wave. So, after 1-2-3-4-5, we see a corrective pattern like A-B-C. *(There are a few other corrective patterns but the basic A-B-C zig-zag is most common).*
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So you are telling me that fellow 🦍 Ralph knew how to predict the market almost 100 years ago? Sure...
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Elliot Waves are highly accurate and in my opinion a great tool to predict what the market or a specific stock is going to do.
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Unlike most indicators it doesn't lack behind, however, there are still cases where multiple patterns could be applied and only once a few more candles are on the chart will it be clear which of those actually is correct.
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Already during our first 🚀 launch attempt that got canceled by RobinHood and others, I used Elliot Waves to estimate how far that rocket might go.
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[](https://preview.redd.it/ls6yg89ksen61.png?width=1544&format=png&auto=webp&s=02df84510f42b367541792896e09ba836e92c9a7)
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Screenshot using Elliot Waves on the GME 15 min chart on the 25th of January
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I shared that screenshot initially [here](https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/l4syrd/gme_megathread_part_2/gkqko9z/) and mentioned in a further reply once we reached that range that a drop in the range of $137-$207 will likely follow before our 🚀 finally will launch to more than $4,000 per share.
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[](https://preview.redd.it/j7tjz2dqten61.png?width=1552&format=png&auto=webp&s=0c100b502fe38eb3ec9c1082cad758f4fbfc09b7)
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What actually happened after that "prediction"?
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As you can see both statements were highly accurate and IMHO only because of buying restrictions did the drop go further than it should have and our 🚀 take-off was canceled.
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If you can follow so far that's great... if not, I really recommend that you use the time while we wait for take-off to read the book about Elliot Waves.
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OK, but how come that $10,000 per share is now just a stop along the way?
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Well, by preventing the launch back then HFs fucked up IMHO and now more people are buying tickets for their trip into space. After all, Elliot Waves are in simple terms nothing else but the manifestation of human behavior on the market.
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However, the beyond average manipulation (preventing buy orders altogether) also makes it harder to say with absolute certainty that the following pattern is accurate, but since they anyway only reflect my opinion I'm still going to share them.
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[](https://preview.redd.it/siqakz1even61.png?width=1782&format=png&auto=webp&s=45d7c5d21886747740e29cafe72c0b0364f52785)
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Using my new crayons on GME hourly chart.
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The way it looks right now we are currently in a corrective wave 2 (see 0-1) that is developing as an A-B-C pattern. Both of those aspects show a correction into the current range, although we haven't reached the predicted range for C in the A-B-C pattern (and maybe won't, but I wouldn't be surprised if the price falls into the range of $131-$161 to confirm both predictions and possibly also close the gap that's still open from the 5th to the 8th of March at $140.50).This would mean that we are likely at the end of wave #2 within a 1-2-3-4-5 Impulse.
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[](https://preview.redd.it/tnm459b4wen61.png?width=1854&format=png&auto=webp&s=69cec8c0ff7a0d85a407b27ba1adab1a1a1694ce)
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🚀 Pre-Launch
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Now, the projection for the following wave 3-4-5 looks like this and already gets us into the range of $10,231 to $13,382 - at which point we'd see a corrective pattern (A-B-C), which IMHO is very likely since a few 📄 🙌 bitches would likely sell their shares at that price and HFs obv. will also try to create a drop at a price point like this to make it appear as if the MOASS is already over.
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However, as mentioned earlier, each wave consists of waves, so the 1-2-3-4-5 Impulse you can see in the image above is actually just wave #3 in the bigger 1-2-3-4-5 Impuls that began during the all-time low of GME. Confirming the highlighted pattern, and also confirming that we are likely going to see a correction/retracement/sell-off at that level. And that Corrective pattern would be wave #4 in the bigger Impulse, and after that, we will see our 🚀 fly. It's hard to say how far right now, but personally I expect to see $130k per share, possibly more.
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Now, as said, all of that is just my opinion and not financial advice.
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TL;DR IMHO GME will go short-term to around $2,000 at which point we'll see a small retracement and then we'll move to our pre-launch stage at $10,000 per share, followed by a drop to as little as $7,000 per share, followed by the 🚀 take-off to $100,000 or more per share. I learned all of that from a very old ape called Ralph Nelson Elliot that used his crayons in interesting ways.
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EDIT #1: I started learning the Elliot Wave Theory last year. Two predictions I published last year based on Elliot Waves were the [A-B-C correction in TWLO in October](https://www.tradingview.com/chart/TWLO/JJ2castF-Twilio/) (although my floor for C was a little too low) and wave [3-4-5 for TSLA and the $2,000+ price target in July](https://www.tradingview.com/chart/TSLA/iTTc7EjH-Tesla-Going-for-2-000/) (unfortunately, the stock split ruins the replay, but you can check the chart for yourself to see how accurate my predictions were)
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EDIT #2: Since some of you are asking if all of that even applies during a squeeze I looked for a chart of a recent short squeeze and if you take a look at <https://prnt.sc/10neu61> you'll see that the TSLA squeeze in 2019 also follows the 1-2-3-4-5 Impulse wave pattern.
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EDIT #3: In addition to "EDIT #2" to prove another point, take a look at <https://prnt.sc/10nezpr> and you'll notice that wave #3 of the TSLA squeeze by itself is another 1-2-3-4-5 Impulse wave.
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EDIT #4: <https://prnt.sc/10nh43c> shows the weekly GME chart with Elliot Waves from the low last year until now and also indicates that we are currently in wave #3 that will take us to $9,193 - $10,805 followed by wave #4 (short drop not visible in the screenshot) and our final take-off with wave #5 (also not in the screenshot).
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EDIT #6 (#5 is at the top): Here are a few things I personally won't do:
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1. I won't try to trade those waves, but simply HOLD because I don't want to risk missing the take-off because those price levels aren't set in stone or guaranteed.
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2. I won't sell on the way up but wait for the top and sell on the way down. Because the price could go way higher than predicted and I rather sell at 80% of the top on the way down than selling at $100k per share [just to see the top at $1,000,000 or higher](https://prnt.sc/10ni1ei).
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3. I won't invest money that I can't afford to lose.
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EDIT #7: Updated link in Edit #6 to include wave #5 prediction on GME weekly chart. Although, I want to point out that I rely on the hourly chart and use higher and/or lower timeframes only for confirmation.
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EDIT #8: I've uploaded a new video to my latest YouTube channel and in it starting at 10:31 I show how I apply Elliott Waves to GME. <https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fjOUxNuzw3E&t=631s>
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3/25 Elliott Wave EOD - VERY Strong moves to upside; Motive waves underway with strong volume
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=============================================================================================
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| Author | Source |
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| :-------------: |:-------------:|
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| [u/head4headsup](https://www.reddit.com/user/head4headsup/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/comments/mdf13w/325_elliott_wave_eod_very_strong_moves_to_upside/) |
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---
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[DD](https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/search?q=flair_name%3A%22DD%22&restrict_sr=1)
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[](https://preview.redd.it/107o34lly9p61.jpg?width=1531&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=cf42351d330943b603c18ffe26c33f095d809622)
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3/25 Micro (5-minute) - i of 5 of (i) of III almost complete
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*"There's no need to be scared now; It's all the fun of a Fairground' ~* *The Stupendium**
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Yeah, those down days. They can be scary. (Well not for us Diamond Hands, but I digress). But oh what an up day can do for morale.
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TL;DR - Primary Count: Corrective waves appear to be complete at the major degree waves (like (4) and/or II). Impulse moves to the upside on high volume appear to have taken the wheel. Minor pullbacks (of 1/3 to 1/2 the last completed five-wave move) expected as we move higher.
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In Ape - Got low enough on last branch to jump onto bigger branch that leads higher. Will be swinging up then slightly down to grab next higher branch. Loads of Bananas are now visible up higher, and can almost see even more above that. These branches are looking pretty sturdy, and lots less worried about falling than I was yesterday (or for the last week even).
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Discussion -
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A 50%+ up day, on great volume in each wave up. Who's Jacked!?!?! Classic impulse move to shake off the corrective action and (hopefully) continue in 5-wave moves of increasingly larger degrees.
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Hmmm - 3rd waves are usually unmistakable. This whole (4) and (5) I think we have been trying to resolve would need to be considered a Leading Diagonal in (III) which should target $500+. Watching that (4) continue lower and lower has me AGAIN wondering if the Alt Yellow count is still in play, where (II) was Alt (A), waves (1), (2), and (3) was actually an Alt (B) and (4) was actually (II) finally completing in the Yellow count. What that means is we are possibly looking at a Fresh 5-wave move to start (III), rather than it having already started in late February (see weekend update 60-minute chart).
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Either way, it's great for us now... whether it was (II) or (4) completing, Elliott Wave Theory points us up, Up UP. Only a drop below this morning's low will have us questioning (4). All I can see is a Party Train Leaving the Station. If you are buying, I hope you snagged some. Wave ii should target a .5 retrace of i. (2nd waves are my favorite buying opportunities... they follow an impulse up, and precede a typically much larger impulse up from where they end.
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You read that correctly, right? Elliott Wave acknowledges that markets and individual securities go up AND down. Show me a chart that never has, and I'll eat all my crayons. That would make me sad, and I have zero fear that you would prove it to force such a diabolical dietary dilemma.
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The beauty of Elliott Wave is we KNOW there will be ups and downs, and we can very accurately project where the targets are for each up and down. Use that. As a sleeping pill if you must. I use it to make informed decisions about buying opportunities... Diamond Hand Polishing Agent at the least. This is not advice, financial, trading or otherwise. I'm an ape, remember?
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A Tribe Called Quest -
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*Fibs - Motive Waves:* Wave 3 absolutely NAILED the 1.618 extension (with 27 cents to spare). Yes... .618 and 1.618 are Golden! (see Phi/Golden ratio). Wave 3 typically targets the 1.382, so this is considered 'extended' by one fib. Projections for 5 then are raised to follow suit. It looks to me like wave 5 is trying to complete as an Ending Diagonal, and whereas a 5th would normally target the 1.764 extension, we must raise that target by a fib due to 3 extending by that much. Targeting the 2.000 extension is 185.35. We have already achieved that in this Ending Diagonal of 5. Wave 3 was extended. It is entirely possible 5 may extend too. The ensuing impulse to complete the 5th wave is in an overlapping three-wave structure (which you will NEVER see in a wave 3) so this must be 5. But busting out the channel lines (pink) helps me see that we may only have 3 of 5 in 5 in place. Those 3 have already struck the 2.000. The higher it goes, the bigger the pullback in ii. Be prepared for that. It is ok. It is expected (at least to us Elliotticians). All of this provides evidence that we really may be starting the big wave (III) now, instead of back in the first week of March. All three of our motive waves here have beautiful green Volume candles to go with them. Usually not what you see in corrective action. More evidence.
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*Fibs - Corrective Waves:* Wave 2 retraced 1 to the .382 (that's .382 to .500 is fine) and only did it in 4 candles. Alternation tells us to expect 4 to look much different. It does. 4 looks funky. Corrective at the very least (which is why it is perfect for a 4). Wave 4 often only targets a mere .382 retrace of 3, and that's what we see here. It also took 13 candles to get there... Alternation from 2 as we'd expect. Wave 2 and 4 (and our other pullbacks today) all show very low volume. Also hallmark of a motive wave to the upside, and more evidence this truly is a new Impulse to the Upside.
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This is fun, yeah? Lots more fun than the doldrums of watching a (4) or long C of (II) complete.
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*"If there are secrets that you want to find out; Hop on the Ink Machine and Ride Those Pipes Down!" ~ The Stupendium**
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Yes, you got a nice UP day. Be mentally prepared for wave ii. Target is .5 retrace of i (from where (4) completed to where i completes), so about 152 region. Once we get three down in ii, we can more accurately calculate what our targets will be for iii, iv and v/(1). Please keep your hands and feet inside the ride at all times. We hope you enjoy your stay in Wave (III).
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H4HU - Not a pro (that's your wife's bf), not advice (financial, trading, dietary or otherwise). I will benefit if GME goes up.... because I am hodling, and I like the stock.
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*[Art of Darkeness by The Stupendium](https://youtu.be/u81OS9hC85g)
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@ -0,0 +1,131 @@
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# Three possible ways how GME plays out according to Elliott Wave Theory
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| Author | Source |
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| :-------------: |:-------------:|
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| [u/ChristianRauchenwald](https://www.reddit.com/user/ChristianRauchenwald/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/mnezu9/three_possible_ways_how_gme_plays_out_according/) |
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---
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it's been a while since I provided an update here, but finally, there is something worth posting about going on.
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**This post does not only contain my own prediction but also the labeling/prediction of Jeffrey Kennedy**, the guy who runs the "Trader's Classroom" at "Elliott Wave International" and **has infinitely more experience with Elliott Wave Theory than I do**. _(Among other things he predicted the TSLA rally and that it's likely TSLA will reach $2,000 per share - which was followed by a stock split - months before we got there)_.
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Because he has way more experience and I know most people won't read the entire post, let's start with his analysis that you can watch at https://www.elliottwave.com/trading/GameStop-GME-Could-it-rally-to-over-1000
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**Disclaimer**: _As mentioned in the following section, I'm by now an affiliate of Elliott Wave International, mostly thanks to all of you and the amount of traffic that [my first post](https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/comments/m6cebh/why_10000_per_share_is_just_a_stop_along_the_way/) brought them.
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The reason, or at least one of the reasons, why Jeffrey Kennedy recorded this video is that I used my newly found connection to tell them about the marketing effect this could have on their business. Because obv. 162k people in this subreddit could potentially start to learn about Elliott Wave Theory if they believe what they see and some might even end up subscribing to the paid "Trader's Classroom".
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Obviously, I wanted someone with way more experience than me to confirm my labeling or at least show me where I am wrong_.
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I understand why Jeff does NOT go into the potential target of wave number five, but even his focus on "are we going to see $1,000 per share and more" provides a lot of information and confirmation of the things I shared in my previous posts and during my live streams.
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The video also showed me a few mistakes I made in my previous labeling BUT none of that really has any huge impact on the overall prediction.
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## All the other disclaimers & other important information to make sure you don't get wrong expectations!
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**Let's start with some of the obvious things, that you should definitely read** so you don't get the wrong expectations based on the charts shared below.
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1. **Any dates shown/predicted in my graphs below are irrelevant.** While Elliott Wave Theory provides some methods to also roughly predict the when, I suck at doing so, so when it comes to my graphs **only the price is relevant.**
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2. **This** entire post reflects my opinion and **is in no way financial advice.**
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3. **I hold some GME shares**, therefore, any increase in price benefits me financially.
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4. **I am, by now, an affiliate of Elliott Wave International** but this post does NOT include any affiliate links.
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Any links to Elliott Wave International are NOT to promote them, but simply because IMHO the free only version of "Elliott Wave Principle" is the best resource I know for those that want to learn more about the Elliott Wave Theory.
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Also, I'd like to mention that at the time I shared my first post (9Why $10,000 per share is just a stop along the way...](https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/comments/m6cebh/why_10000_per_share_is_just_a_stop_along_the_way/)) I was NOT affiliated with Elliott Wave International but decided to join their affiliate program after they reached out to me to use the affiliate links on my YouTube channel.
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5. **I am NOT affiliated with WaveBasis, MotiveWave, or any other resource mentioned below**, and just like Elliott Wave International I mention them because I want to save others the time it took me to initially find those tools/services.
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6. **My YouTube channel is monetized** since 04/06/2021 and I make a few dollars when people watch my live streams. However, as you can see in https://prnt.sc/1184998, the money I make from YouTube doesn't even cover the costs for the software I'm using to create my analysis.
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## What is the "Elliott Wave Principle"?
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**If you read any or all of my previous posts (linked below) then you likely already know at least the basics and can just skip ahead to the next headline.**
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1. [Why $10,000 per share is just a stop along the way... (my initial post)](https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/comments/m6cebh/why_10000_per_share_is_just_a_stop_along_the_way/)
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2. [Elliott Waves & GME 🚀 Part #2 (follow-up on post #1 that IMHO didn't get enough attention)](https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/comments/md4emt/elliott_waves_gme_part_2/)
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3. [If you want to know where GME is going, read this post! (post after market close on 03/26/21)](https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/comments/mecpjv/if_you_want_to_know_where_gme_is_going_read_this/)
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4. [Elliott Waves in GME - Update for 03/30/21 (post before market open on 03/30/21)](https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/comments/mgfpzn/elliott_waves_in_gme_update_for_033021/)
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5. [Elliott Waves in GME - Update for 03/31/21 (post before market open on 03/31/21)](https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/comments/mh233t/elliott_waves_in_gme_update_for_033121/)
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6. [Recordings of my GameStop live charting streams](https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCsc1gAr0t2ME4nzu4PCAnow/videos?sub_confirmation=1)
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||||
|
||||
Ralph Nelson Elliott came up with a theory that allows the prediction of market movements. In simple terms, he detected ever repeating patterns, so-called waves, that are based on human psychology. According to Elliott Wave Theory looking at a chart, you can ALWAYS identify the market as currently being in any of the 5 waves that make up an impulse wave.
|
||||
|
||||
_Such an impulse can be bullish or bearish in nature, so don't assume an impulse wave can only go up._
|
||||
|
||||
Each impulse wave - labeled as 1-2-3-4-5 - follows certain rules and is always followed by a corrective pattern - in most cases a ZigZag labeled A-B-C. Each wave within an impulse contains another wave of lower degree and once an impulse finishes wave #5 the entire 1-2-3-4-5 forms a wave of higher degree. In other words, wave-ception as shown in the image below.
|
||||
|
||||
|
||||
|
||||
In short, we can label the biggest timeframes and work our way down from there to the lowest timeframes. There are rules to what waves of lower degree (subwaves) are allowed in each wave and being able to label those "subwaves" helps us to confirm that our labeling on higher degrees is correct.
|
||||
|
||||
The image above is a screenshot of Figure 1-3 in the book Elliott Wave Theory that you can read for free at https://www.elliottwave.com/Free-Reports/Elliott-Wave-Principle or order as a physical copy for $29 at https://www.elliottwave.com/Book/Elliott-Wave-Principle.
|
||||
|
||||
**Disclaimer:** Again, as explained above, I'm NOT including those links to promote but to save others the time of looking for free resources to dig deeper.
|
||||
|
||||
Besides the book, you can also download a handy 1-page cheat-sheet at https://bit.ly/3d06uKW (it's a Google Drive link) that contains all the possible patterns and rules in one page. However, that cheat-sheet only makes sense if you understand at least the basics of Elliott Wave Theory, so I recommend everyone that just starts out to finish at least chapter #1 of the above-mentioned book.
|
||||
|
||||
Last but not least, while you can use any charting software to label your Elliott Waves I'm personally using WaveBasis MotiveWave because they have a lot of features that make it much easier to do precisely that.
|
||||
|
||||
For beginners, I believe WaveBasis is the better choice because their labeling also automatically plots the price targets on the chart.
|
||||
|
||||
**Disclaimer:** I am NOT affiliated in any way with WaveBasis or MotiveWave and the above-linked cheat-sheet is a document I discovered already a while back for free on the internet.
|
||||
|
||||
## F.A.Q. - Some more essential basics and commons questions!
|
||||
Let's start by answering some questions I've seen over and over in the comments of my other posts:
|
||||
|
||||
- **Does Elliott Wave Theory apply in heavily shorted stocks, manipulated stocks, short squeezes?**
|
||||
To answer that I'm going to quote the "Elliott Wave Principle" book (chapter 1.9):
|
||||
> All rules and guidelines of the Wave Principle fundamentally apply to actual market mood, not its recording per se or lack thereof. Its clear manifestation requires free market pricing. When prices are fixed by government edict, such as those for gold and silver for half of the twentieth century, waves restricted by the edict are not allowed to register. When the available price record differs from what might have existed in a free market, rules and guidelines must be considered in that light. In the long run, of course, markets always win out over edicts, and edict enforcement is only possible if the mood of the market allows it. All rules and guidelines presented in this book presume that your price record is accurate.
|
||||
|
||||
In short. Yes, Elliott Wave Theory should still apply. The only exception in GME would be during the buying restrictions some brokers imposed since that definitely doesn't equal a free market. As a result, rule violations during the drop that was caused by those restrictions have to be viewed in a different light and may be ok.
|
||||
|
||||
- **How accurate are Elliott Waves in general?**
|
||||
While Elliott Wave Theory appears quite strict its rules actually allow for a lot of flexibility, so that at any time we are most likely able to apply more than one pattern/labeling without rule violations, which would provide us with our preferred labeling and one or more alternate labelings.
|
||||
Those may sometimes be complete opposites so that our preferred labeling would indicate an increase in price, while our alternate labeling might indicate a drop.
|
||||
We do NOT willy nilly pick which one is our preferred and which one is our alternate labeling but arrange them based on how many of the guidelines (not rules) they also honor.
|
||||
You'll see below that in GME the preferable and the two most likely alternate labelings align quite well and only differ in a few IMHO minor aspects.
|
||||
|
||||
Besides that, I'd like to point you to the ***"***How accurate are Elliott Waves?" section in https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/comments/mecpjv/if_you_want_to_know_where_gme_is_going_read_this/ where I provide a few examples of Elliott Wave predictions that hit the nail on the spot in GME.
|
||||
There are plenty more for other stocks, but if you need more proof you'll have to use Google yourself.
|
||||
|
||||
I also would ask you to briefly take a look at the "Important Aspects To Understand The Rest Of This Post" in https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/comments/mhr81w/elliott_waves_in_gme_update_for_033221/ that illustrates that the price areas of Elliott Wave patterns labeled on historical charts in WaveBasis are not "labeling the past" but still plot the target price areas based on the labeling of previous wave elements. In other words, while it's easier to label the waves in historical data, any price area highlighted like in...
|
||||
|
||||
|
||||
|
||||
...doesn't show up there because there are candles but shows up there because once we label point (4) the predicted area for wave (5) is in that area.
|
||||
|
||||
## Where do we stand in GME according to Elliott Wave Theory?
|
||||
|
||||
|
||||
|
||||
The above picture is part of my first post at https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/comments/m6cebh/why_10000_per_share_is_just_a_stop_along_the_way/ and a few things changed, especially after watching the prediction/labeling by Jeffrey Kennedy at https://www.elliottwave.com/trading/GameStop-GME-Could-it-rally-to-over-1000
|
||||
|
||||
|
||||
|
||||
Unfortunately, MotiveWave doesn't show predicted price areas by default, but basically, the one important thing that changed is the price target area that used to be around $1,938 to $2,238 (two pictures up) because the low after the earnings call went a bit below the predicted area of $130.88 to $160.81 and that moves the target for the next wave in the $1,300 to $1,500 area, which almost exactly **aligns with Jeffrey Kennedy's labeling that would indicate $1,269.31 per share.**
|
||||
|
||||
**This would NOT be the end of the squeeze/journey, but simply the end of wave (3)** followed by a correction that we can't fully predict by now, followed by wave (5) that should go beyond wave (3) and take us to the end of the rainbow.
|
||||
|
||||
And since even the two most likely alternate labelings point toward that area and just expect a new low before we go there, I'm now even more confident than before that we'll go beyond $1,000 in wave #3 and far beyond in wave #5.
|
||||
|
||||
|
||||
|
||||
Those of you that watched my streams noticed that I got a few things wrong on the 5-min timeframe during the last week, mostly because I didn't consider that we might see such a long corrective pattern (sideways movement). By now, however, I've accepted the idea that this is likely one of the rare cases where wave (ii) blue contains a triangle (hence the yellow exclamation mark, containing a warning that this is not very common).
|
||||
And based on that triangle I actually think that Jeffrey Kennedy's primary labeling is the most likely scenario.
|
||||
|
||||
## TL;DR Available Options According to Elliott Wave Theory
|
||||
|
||||
1. The triangle pattern in the last screenshot is correct (we'll know likely by the end of the day) we might see another day or two of sideways movement but would actually expect a breakout to the top soon.
|
||||
|
||||
2. The price drops below $116.90 and my labeling and the preferred labeling of Jeffrey Kennedy become invalid. In this case, we'd expect to drop down to around $96 by May before we go up above $1,000.
|
||||
|
||||
3. a. and 2. get invalidated, then we may see $60 again around June and from there go up above $1,000.
|
||||
|
||||
**And don't forget to watch the labeling/prediction of Jeffrey Kennedy at https://www.elliottwave.com/trading/GameStop-GME-Could-it-rally-to-over-1000**
|
||||
|
||||
p.s. I'll do my best to answer comments but I'm only checking them once per day because I spend hours streaming and have a ton of other things to do as well.
|
||||
|
||||
I apologize in advance if this is against the rules of our new home [r/SuperStonk](https://www.reddit.com/r/SuperStonk/) but I would like to mention that you can also just join me live today 30 minutes before the market opens at https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-G0add6Vv3Y to get answers. Personally, I believe that answering questions is definitely easier in the stream than in the comments, but obv. as mentioned in my disclaimers, I have a small financial benefit if people join the stream.
|
||||
@ -0,0 +1,80 @@
|
||||
Elliot Waves, Big Triangles, A Technical Look Into GME's Movement 🚀
|
||||
====================================================================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/possibly6](https://www.reddit.com/user/possibly6/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/mp1ywg/elliot_waves_big_triangles_a_technical_look_into/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
[DD 👨🔬](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22DD%20%F0%9F%91%A8%E2%80%8D%F0%9F%94%AC%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||
Salutations apes, its yaboy [u/possibly6](https://www.reddit.com/u/possibly6/) back with a different approach to technical analysis for this edition of price action and technical analysis.
|
||||
|
||||
As always, this aint no mothafuckin financial advice, hoe. The views expressed here are solely my approach to investing in this specific equity. I ape an am.
|
||||
|
||||
obligatory.
|
||||
|
||||
While most of my peers were out partying this weekend, I decided I'd spend the weekend diving deeper down the elliot wave theory rabbit hole. quick disclaimer, I am still very new to this concept and welcome input from even wrinklier brained ellioticians.
|
||||
|
||||
Here's my NEW view of GME.
|
||||
|
||||
[4hr view of GME](https://preview.redd.it/3v8bwpjzims61.png?width=2854&format=png&auto=webp&s=a6c6509cbffecb4889f9a3f06e8646d726c1646a)
|
||||
|
||||
I'll try my best to keep it simple. For those new to elliot waves, the theory basically states that the market moves in impulsive and corrective waves. Impulsive waves consist of 1,2,3,4,5 and corrective waves consist of A B and C waves.
|
||||
|
||||
[Elliot waves simplified](https://preview.redd.it/cddak8k9jms61.png?width=299&format=png&auto=webp&s=fa733c407ea78afe4e710097a0df2aecb48ca65e)
|
||||
|
||||
So what can we draw from these waves? A basic rule of thumb for drawing waves:
|
||||
|
||||
Wave 2 targets roughly a 50% correction of wave 1
|
||||
|
||||
Wave 3 cannot be the shortest of waves 1 3 and 5.
|
||||
|
||||
The bottom of wave 4 cannot go below the top of wave 1.
|
||||
|
||||
With that in mind, let's take a close look at GME.
|
||||
|
||||
[4 hr view of GME zoomed in](https://preview.redd.it/i3ctrsytjms61.png?width=2854&format=png&auto=webp&s=94d7a4332347a72f9534892eef937f73ffe9ef0c)
|
||||
|
||||
As we can see here, the white waves move inside of the yellow waves, leading me to believe my drawings are accurate. You can see all of the above conditions are met. So where does that leave us for this week?
|
||||
|
||||
It looks like friday we completed out wave 2 correction from two days after ER. Remember wave 2 usually targets a 50% retracement, but 61.8% is just as much as a possibility. let's see where we landed on friday's low...
|
||||
|
||||
[Fib Levels GME 1hr](https://preview.redd.it/73cbgabakms61.png?width=2856&format=png&auto=webp&s=ed24c5c520b9133bc45b4a676fd92c154cdbd86c)
|
||||
|
||||
By tracing the bottom of the move to the top, we can see the fibonacci retracement levels to keep an eye out for. Not only did we touch the 61.8% retracement level on friday, but we ALSO bottom on the symmetrical triangle support. Here's a view of finviz without all my waves so you can visualize better.
|
||||
|
||||
[Daily chart GME finviz](https://preview.redd.it/ahgzq1tkkms61.png?width=886&format=png&auto=webp&s=d2436e66b4666c2a3120f6174dc884ffbf3ea8a7)
|
||||
|
||||
Also notice how we started to rebound after that level was hit. Given that there is triangle support, I would assume 152.47 was the bottom of our wave 2 of 5. So what does that mean for this week?
|
||||
|
||||
In order for this set of waves to be valid, remember that wave 4 cannot retrace below the top of wave 1. That would set give us a minimum price target for wave 3 of 5 of around 236.4, though wave 3 is often the biggest of the 5 waves. My potential targets for wave 3 are below.
|
||||
|
||||
[Fib price targets](https://preview.redd.it/w5jhomwglms61.png?width=1020&format=png&auto=webp&s=f5549cc89b0b6a7c0ed11e8b62a6f9a53ee2e5ee)
|
||||
|
||||
Ironically enough, I have my big symmetrical triangle converging on 4/20. do you believe in coincidences?
|
||||
|
||||
[Triangle converges on my favorite holiday (4/20)](https://preview.redd.it/2opuslcslms61.png?width=2854&format=png&auto=webp&s=4bd6097ff9076844a5318afa4a72fb09cac9a664)
|
||||
|
||||
Let's talk bigger picture real quick. The yellow lines represent a bigger set of elliot waves, and the dark blue being the biggest. ignore the dark blue for now. Looking at the yellow lines, we are currently in a wave 3 of 5. Remember what I said about wave 3 often times being the biggest of the waves, and NEVER the smallest?
|
||||
|
||||
Wave 1 of 5 in this scenario ran from 40 to 348.5, with these numbers, that puts my first wave 3 of 5 price target at 497 ;) Before this is hit, expect wave 3 of 5 to complete within the yellow waves (white waves) followed by a quick correction.
|
||||
|
||||
The fib levels that stretch all the way across the screen are potential wave 3 of 5 targets.
|
||||
|
||||
[wave 3 of 5 targets](https://preview.redd.it/eadbreuhmms61.png?width=2826&format=png&auto=webp&s=236f89b349d5f0e53d8c7fe752b682c678e57fbe)
|
||||
|
||||
I wanted to push myself to learn something new and after seeing all the ellioticians in this sub, I took it upon myself to try and learn it.
|
||||
|
||||
I am by no means an expert, but I like to think I learned the basics pretty quickly.
|
||||
|
||||
I gave you these targets out of the goodness of my heart. If I hear you're trying to day trade using these targets, not only is your mom a hoe but you'll make this ape sad. ape no want to be sad. ape together strong. ape no day trade gme. ape only buy and hold.
|
||||
|
||||
TLDR: Friday looks to have completed our wave 2 of 5 correction, triangle support backs this claim. theoretically we should't drop below the 153 level again but it doesn't matter anymore does now it... as long as price stays above 113 the waves are valid. Lowest price I see possible without having to recount is 135.25. Wave 3 of 5 (yellow waves) first target price is 497 but will likely push much past that. So hard to explain the waves but i tried 🦍
|
||||
|
||||
obligatory 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀
|
||||
|
||||
edit: just for fun, here's my view of $SPY. looks to me were in a wave 5 of 5, you know what comes after a 5 wave impulse... the timing of all this, the price targets, it all seems too perfect. the perfect fucking storm.
|
||||
|
||||
<https://preview.redd.it/aldemcr6tms61.png?width=2856&format=png&auto=webp&s=9126b6aef02bacbf7ef88e9587192ce1086201fd>
|
||||
@ -0,0 +1,66 @@
|
||||
Elliot Waves Say We're Headed UP 🚀
|
||||
===================================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/possibly6](https://www.reddit.com/user/possibly6/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/comments/mdwv5p/elliot_waves_say_were_headed_up/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
[DD](https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/search?q=flair_name%3A%22DD%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||
My sweet sweet apes, at the time of writing this the market is still open (12:42 pm pst), but GME has crossed 165.88 and this makes me very excited.
|
||||
|
||||
Before I begin, this ain't no mothafuckin financial advice hoe.
|
||||
|
||||
Obligatory.
|
||||
|
||||
My reason for writing my daily update earlier today is because I'm actually about to go into the desert and eat some uh, as Mario calls them, magic mushrooms.
|
||||
|
||||
aside the point.
|
||||
|
||||
Aaaaaaanyway, I've started to down a new rabbit hole. A little rabbit hole referred to as "elliot waves." Now before I begin, I want to clarify that I am in no means an expert, I literally started deep diving into this theory yesterday after putting it off for a while.
|
||||
|
||||
I came across this post by [u/head4headsup](https://www.reddit.com/u/head4headsup/) , ill just link his post below because he did a very good job at explaining what was going on with price action, and how the waves of elliot waves moves, their target prices etc.
|
||||
|
||||
<https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/comments/mdf13w/325_elliott_wave_eod_very_strong_moves_to_upside/>
|
||||
|
||||
Basically, elliot waves theory states that the market moves in impulsive and corrective waves. The waves essentially look like this.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/gwg3m659cfp61.png?width=1248&format=png&auto=webp&s=70d1804d93a5ae90004c7d001392ae88a65a58b2)
|
||||
|
||||
I'm going to link a screenshot from [u/head4headsup](https://www.reddit.com/u/head4headsup/) dd from last night that really got me thinking.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/iitupdpccfp61.png?width=2870&format=png&auto=webp&s=5767da2af18e50a2611a359ee63ffadac59e839a)
|
||||
|
||||
At first glance, i understood the fib levels, the channels, indicators etc. However, after reading his post, I took a look at this picture a little more closely. What I took away from reading OP's work was that we just finished wave i of v, so wave ii will be a corrective wave that targets a .5 retrace of the peak of wave i.
|
||||
|
||||
Sorry if this is confusing, it's still a new topic to me and I vow to master it one day, for now I am but a padawan. OP was predicting that wave i would finish around 195.5 to 198.63 (just based off the image), today we hit a high of 218.93.
|
||||
|
||||
Whats the .5 retracement of 218.93 from 112.83 you ask (these numbers are how fib levels are calculated, draw the retracement tool from the top of the move to the bottom)
|
||||
|
||||
165.88, represented by the white line.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/hweswk3rdfp61.png?width=2826&format=png&auto=webp&s=2e35eccadfb9bf3fdef2fa75e1f4e944dc121c6c)
|
||||
|
||||
Another confirmation I noticed is that there are waves within the waves. I don't think I can explain it in good detail just yet, though I'm sure someone can explain in the comments. I'd love to further my knowledge on this subject.
|
||||
|
||||
I base my critical levels on fib retracements, which is similar to elliot waves. the .5 retracement (white line) confirmed my bias, and after looking into it more, this confirms the wave ii.
|
||||
|
||||
Wave i iii and v move up, waves ii and iv move down. in simple ape terms. waves exist within waves.
|
||||
|
||||
Keeping this DD short and concise, as of now GME is sitting at 177, and more important broke the downtrend channel, which also indicates this correction we are witnessing is coming to an end.
|
||||
|
||||
Either way, I'm a technical trader and these are the levels I will be watching to get the best deals, though I just hit buy all day at this point.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/0olru34uffp61.png?width=956&format=png&auto=webp&s=2548a261817877dd60c58b45d5e9e5b681f07b00)
|
||||
|
||||
I'm a simple ape. I hodl.
|
||||
|
||||
I pointed out in my last DD that the levels I would be watching today were 175-178 level (top of gap down), 167 (bottom of gap down), and 157.85.
|
||||
|
||||
167 and 165.88 are pretty fucking close to each other, the 167 figure is the bottom of the gap dow (pink box) that I identified to be a critical level.
|
||||
|
||||
TLDR: looks to me the correction for today is complete and we are looking GOOD going into next week! Rocket taking off soon, don't miss your tickets under $200 <3 My final avg down target that I see possible is 153.36, though we'll see what the hedgies got up their sleeves.
|
||||
|
||||
Obligatory 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀
|
||||
@ -0,0 +1,116 @@
|
||||
Predicting GME's Price Action With Elliot Waves 4/29 🚀
|
||||
=======================================================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/possibly6](https://www.reddit.com/user/possibly6/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/n0qnpv/predicting_gmes_price_action_with_elliot_waves_429/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
[DD 👨🔬](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22DD%20%F0%9F%91%A8%E2%80%8D%F0%9F%94%AC%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||
What's poppin apes, [u/possibly6](https://www.reddit.com/u/possibly6/) here with some bias that I indeed can confirm will confirm your bias. confirmed.
|
||||
|
||||
As always, this aint no mothafuckin financial advice, hoe. The views expressed here are solely my approach to investing in this specific equity. I ape an am.
|
||||
|
||||
obligatory.
|
||||
|
||||
To preface, for any new apes, I am a daily technical trader. I make a living by identifying patterns and executing trades based solely on what I see on my charts. As someone who day/swing trades every day, I NEVER day trade GME. I have been holding since late November, haven't sold a single share. I hold xxx shares now.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/u5wu6mgknzv61.png?width=236&format=png&auto=webp&s=f888d58c3d483ad07529fe50ae07904dc378d5aa)
|
||||
|
||||
bias of confirmation in the process of being confirmed with bias about confirmation idk6
|
||||
|
||||
Apologies again for the lack of daily posts. I feel like my work is often times drowned out by fluff and memes, not really an issue just not super motivating if you catch my drift.
|
||||
|
||||
In my last post I talked about how it seemed that our price action mimicked that of January. if you want to check that post out here you go: <https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/mv2bx9/price_action_nearly_identical_to_jan_squeeze/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3>
|
||||
|
||||
Well FINALLY I wake up and I see my favorite stock going up in value. There has been a lot of great work by apes around the sub in recognizing that GME was selling shares to apes while simultaneously keeping the price at max pain points.
|
||||
|
||||
Ah yes, the great equalizer.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/y1zlf360ozv61.png?width=940&format=png&auto=webp&s=5b3c6b7659df08733cf8277fe323ff0d0eacd7ff)
|
||||
|
||||
ah yes
|
||||
|
||||
So now that bankruptcy is completely ruled out, why haven't the shorties covered? Cause they dumb lol. These guys don't want to admit defeat by a bunch of crayon eating apes, and I don't blame em.
|
||||
|
||||
Enough of the memes, let's talk price action. Here's my view of GME over the past few days:
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/685fh3qbozv61.png?width=2858&format=png&auto=webp&s=832182862fdc4bf870bf3998b710c1f7ba73282a)
|
||||
|
||||
1hr View
|
||||
|
||||
If you follow me for regular EW updates, I ended up redrawing the waves we are in. The movement on monday looks to be the start of a wave 3, but it is not quite finished. I have tried to explain EW theory in my previous posts, it hurts my head sooo much trying to describe it, but I will try to put it in ape terms.
|
||||
|
||||
In its simplicity, Elliot Wave Theory is no more than the manifestation of human nature in financial markets. The market moves in waves. 5 impulse waves and 3 corrective waves with waves inside of waves. This picture explains it pretty well.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/cjawb2hwozv61.png?width=872&format=png&auto=webp&s=3182683dd303f2068986af613a629ba5d4fc9891)
|
||||
|
||||
EW inna nutshell
|
||||
|
||||
The way I see it, we are HERE:
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/btq7s635pzv61.jpg?width=872&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=01eb69ac6f3f66b1fda64c65025946cf30dd775d)
|
||||
|
||||
Here's a bigger view of what I see for GME:
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/tdpe9os8pzv61.png?width=2858&format=png&auto=webp&s=d6be2b410295f8541bfa8056222d4bac11aa294a)
|
||||
|
||||
GME 4 hr
|
||||
|
||||
In some of my previous posts, I mentioned my wave 3 of 5 target is somewhere around 220 before a slight correction.
|
||||
|
||||
The downward move at open today was entirely predictable and 165 was the buy area I was watching today to buy more of my favorite stock. allow me to explain why.
|
||||
|
||||
Refer back to the EW diagram above, specifically waves 1 and 2. The wave rules apply on all time frames. After a downturn period, when there is a significant move upwards, this often marks wave 1 of 5. Wave 2 of 5 targets AT LEAST a 50% correction from wave 1, though often times the 61.8% level.
|
||||
|
||||
You can visualize those levels below:
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/fnjui85tpzv61.png?width=2852&format=png&auto=webp&s=dd166d954fc2d5f6e04adeef3bbe8e3d06e8f78c)
|
||||
|
||||
GME 15m
|
||||
|
||||
Compare this to the diagram above, the price action is totally logical.
|
||||
|
||||
Wave 3 targets a 1.618 extension of wave 1, with GME, that is visualized below which gives us our wave 3 of 5 pt before some retracement action.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/omtb09p3qzv61.png?width=2858&format=png&auto=webp&s=c6d3b3000800790156aa5db87e625535520ca75b)
|
||||
|
||||
GME 1hr scaled
|
||||
|
||||
Will we see this target hit tomorrow? possibly (6) but as always idgaf. What I think will happen is we will see price hit a low of around 172 tomorrow (61.8% retracement from wave 1).
|
||||
|
||||
I anticipate this because, as you can see, we trended downwards after the news that GME finished their sale of 3.5m shares. Thus, the upwards trajectory from today after the morning dip was a smaller wave 1 completing. naturally, a 50%-61.8% correction is expected before wave 3. Visualized below:
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/9eb8kgekqzv61.png?width=2858&format=png&auto=webp&s=2dd8e81c6e3e48f61fb68295b19a1386eedb1e26)
|
||||
|
||||
GME 5m zoomed in
|
||||
|
||||
Whatever happens, I'm FUCKING JACKED.
|
||||
|
||||
Before I sign off, ignoring EW, we just broke out of the mega wedge, as I'm sure you have seen across the sub. MACD on the daily just crossed as well which is a HUGE bullish signal.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/ra295gvuqzv61.png?width=2852&format=png&auto=webp&s=0b30eb4cc4893438dd44f2feeef3bda7ff8eab60)
|
||||
|
||||
GME daily chart
|
||||
|
||||
Let's zoom in:
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/jtagem9yqzv61.png?width=2854&format=png&auto=webp&s=d472c762a1cb2ca8532e8863373317e59c575692)
|
||||
|
||||
JACKED.
|
||||
|
||||
Everyone that says "oh technicals don't apply to GME it's so manipulated" is ignorant in my eyes. EW is not typical TA, it is human nature, which is why it is so accurate. Every field has formulas to prove the findings, EW is the stock market's "formula" per se. There's a reason it's accurate.
|
||||
|
||||
If you read all of this, you're dope. Be excellent to each other.
|
||||
|
||||
TLDR: lots of pictures and colorful lines, GME go up. Expecting a low of around 172 tomorrow before a slight reversal around the 217 area. Possible but highly unlikely we fall back to 165 before 217. Don't day trade GME. if you do, fuck you. Sorry not sorry don't be a bitch.
|
||||
|
||||
edit: to clarify, not saying 217 happens tomorrow, that is simply the next target to complete wave 3. Possible it happens tomorrow, but its not 10m so does it matter? nope.
|
||||
|
||||
edit 2: Remember, VOLUME is the biggest driver in price. EW does not necessarily account for volume which is why I don't put timeframes here, though it's fun to speculate isn't it?
|
||||
|
||||
Obligatory 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀
|
||||
|
||||
edit 3: FIDELITY MAKING A NEW APP LETS GOOOO <https://www.reddit.com/r/fidelityinvestments/comments/n0fvgz/meet_the_new_fidelity_mobile_beta_trading/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3>
|
||||
@ -0,0 +1,102 @@
|
||||
Predicting GME Price Action With Elliot Waves 4/30 🚀
|
||||
=====================================================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/possibly6](https://www.reddit.com/user/possibly6/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/n1g617/predicting_gme_price_action_with_elliot_waves_430/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
[DD 👨🔬](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22DD%20%F0%9F%91%A8%E2%80%8D%F0%9F%94%AC%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||
Salutations once again sweet apes, [u/possibly6](https://www.reddit.com/u/possibly6/) here with your daily price action recap and price targets for tomorrow, and of course I've got bias to confirm your bias of confirmation. unbiased ofc.
|
||||
|
||||
As always, this aint no mothafuckin financial advice, hoe. The views expressed here are solely my approach to investing in this specific equity. I ape an am.
|
||||
|
||||
obligatory.
|
||||
|
||||
If you read my post from yesterday, you're dope. If not, my TLDR was as follows:
|
||||
|
||||
TLDR: lots of pictures and colorful lines, GME go up. Expecting a low of around 172 tomorrow before a slight reversal around the 217 area. Possible but highly unlikely we fall back to 165 before 217. Don't day trade GME. if you do, fuck you. Sorry not sorry don't be a bitch.
|
||||
|
||||
Emphasis on the "fuck you" part. Seriously, don't you fucking dare.
|
||||
|
||||
I want to clarify, EW gives price targets, not necessarily time stamps. In my last post it may have seemed as if I was implying 217 was to happen today. 217 is indeed the level I am watching to complete wave 3, but upon doing more analysis of my charts and comparing price action to previous time periods, I think I found some juice stuff.
|
||||
|
||||
[gotta have at least 1 meme innis bit](https://preview.redd.it/6eqdj6izo6w61.png?width=705&format=png&auto=webp&s=7826eb5300b62568d2fc4f9240f76da609111c69)
|
||||
|
||||
Here's my view of GME today:
|
||||
|
||||
[5m](https://preview.redd.it/i3tgcpc4p6w61.png?width=2860&format=png&auto=webp&s=ff131bfae15d472f4e504584c3581939082dfc38)
|
||||
|
||||
Sure enough, price dipped at open as predicted, hitting just below my LOD target of 172. I took off my fib levels after it hit, but for reference, this is what my chart looked life before my low target was hit:
|
||||
|
||||
[5m](https://preview.redd.it/aassnn4fp6w61.png?width=2858&format=png&auto=webp&s=7054d257c16616c9e06dc3e32dbbad8d11398cec)
|
||||
|
||||
Remember, after a wave 1, wave 2 targets a 50% retrace of wave 1 at the minimum, though often times it hits the 61.8 level. Look where we bounced today. Sure we dropped a bit below, the reasoning for this is because HF are hunting for STOP LOSSES. In some of my previous posts I have talked about this, but technical traders trade around these levels and set their SL's just below these fib levels. Shorties often times push price just below these levels to hit SL's and scoop up as many shares as you can. In short, DO NOT HAVE A STOP LOSS ORDER QUED. EVER.
|
||||
|
||||
In EW speak, we didn't make a new high or low today, thus still waiting for volume to pick up to really move the stock. I'm gonna disregard EW for a bit now and go back to the style of analysis I did when I first started making DD by comparing previous periods of GME to now. boy oh boy, I've got some confirmation bias for you.
|
||||
|
||||
Let's start with where we're at now. Here's a daily view of GME over the past few days just so you can visualize price action.
|
||||
|
||||
[Daily](https://preview.redd.it/28xzm0uer6w61.png?width=894&format=png&auto=webp&s=86c7f283b60f3ca27e3d96b8ae969f63d89b1284)
|
||||
|
||||
For anyone unfamiliar with how to read candles, green candles mean the stock closed higher than it opened, and red vise versa. The wicks are the highs and lows price hit in the aggregation period (ie. daily is 1 candle/day, 5m is 1 candle per 5m etc), for green candles, the base is the open and the top is the close. Red the top is the open and the bottom is the close.
|
||||
|
||||
Simplified with this image:
|
||||
|
||||
[How to read CANDLES MOTHAFUCKA](https://preview.redd.it/5n3cc5e5r6w61.png?width=1264&format=png&auto=webp&s=8a0100190f4e392022e93493b6637ba5b21d132b)
|
||||
|
||||
Before I draw conclusions, we need to look at the previous price action in relation to the FTD cycle. I found this image on the sub a few days ago so you can visualize the FTD cycle:
|
||||
|
||||
[FTD cycle visualized](https://preview.redd.it/edmv50rsr6w61.png?width=960&format=png&auto=webp&s=90c70fa42efd7a588c29165d85239f2731fbd1f5)
|
||||
|
||||
i guess January isn't quite the best comparison because the Jan squeeze got way out of control with all the media attention and celebs (think Elon tweeting GAMESTONK). I'm technically looking right before the FTD cycle, though the candlestick patterns remain intact.
|
||||
|
||||
Let's start with January:
|
||||
|
||||
[1/12-1/21](https://preview.redd.it/oivno6j0s6w61.png?width=1248&format=png&auto=webp&s=a3337e121e7a5dedbc43af699e7a44497c1b6fa1)
|
||||
|
||||
The next day:
|
||||
|
||||
[1/22-1/30](https://preview.redd.it/51n13n5bs6w61.png?width=1244&format=png&auto=webp&s=a3f5482388251fe96099291aee7abad5bc6cf881)
|
||||
|
||||
What I want you to take away from this is the huge surge in price, followed by relatively flat days, or consolidation. Now compare that to where we are now above^
|
||||
|
||||
Now lets look at February, the difference here was the massive spike was actually on the t+21 day.
|
||||
|
||||
[2/22-3/10](https://preview.redd.it/2g97i45us6w61.png?width=1178&format=png&auto=webp&s=d5b6e0ac6bac8fdbc4bf4df9c8df1330a1914eed)
|
||||
|
||||
As you can visualize, we had our big spike on the FTD day, opened considerably higher the next day and began to fall. Below is on-demand data from the above dates to view the intraday price action (specifically after hours).
|
||||
|
||||
[5m view 2/22 - 3/1](https://preview.redd.it/kro65taht6w61.png?width=2858&format=png&auto=webp&s=9cafff714b815a2ced38a30af9eacef5c74f8f08)
|
||||
|
||||
Now compare this to now:
|
||||
|
||||
[present day view](https://preview.redd.it/wi6qqg3nt6w61.png?width=2862&format=png&auto=webp&s=0388cad947081e58083926aa0a1f9f3329859c0c)
|
||||
|
||||
idk(6) about you, but I can see the similarities clear as day. In February we consolidated after running from 40-200 for 5-7 days depending on how you look at the candles before running from a low of 86 to a high of 348.5.
|
||||
|
||||
So using this info, that leads me to believe that GME will likely stay relatively flat for at least 2 more days before attempting to make the next leg up.
|
||||
|
||||
At the end of the day, we likely won't see anything too crazy with the price until the new DTC rules are put in place. I firmly believe RC and the gang wanted to set the squeeze off on 4/20, but the passing of the rules got delayed. My advice is to closely follow the FTD cycle, as this is when the most explosive moves happen. My honest guess is the squeeze will start on a t+21 day. Not going to speculate on that though, it comes down to the DTC covering themselves and putting protective measures in place.
|
||||
|
||||
We will get our bananas soon.
|
||||
|
||||
In terms of where I think price will travel tomorrow, my buy areas are the same as yesterday (low of around 172) but there is a low possibility we retrace and retest the .618 level again at 165.2.
|
||||
|
||||
The lowest I see GME going (not that I have any reason to believe GME will take a sudden dump tomorrow) is no lower than around 145, as otherwise waves would have to be re-drawn.
|
||||
|
||||
Upside target for wave 3 of 5 inside the 3 of 5 (sorry, this hurts my head just as much as it hurts yours) is around 196-197. If today indeed was the bottom of wave 2, and I believe it was as we hit the .618 level (172) and rebounded shortly after.
|
||||
|
||||
Wave 3 targets a 1.618 move of that of wave 1, visualized by the purple 161.8% line below (the smaller waves I'm talking about are drawn in yellow, I usually dont draw on my trading platform bc they're minute and I know what to look for, but for learning purposes the stocks trajectory should look something like this IF wave 2 completed today at 172:
|
||||
|
||||
<https://preview.redd.it/owsw24gvv6w61.png?width=2858&format=png&auto=webp&s=d90fdbfd7c05ee9e1340f9bd973f5272cb754ae3>
|
||||
|
||||
These lines are for visualization purposes and in no way assume price will 100% hit the 1.618 target tomorrow. This is simply the level I am watching to see price retrace a bit after hitting.
|
||||
|
||||
I'm lost, to be honest I can't even tell what's logical and what's not anymore. All I know is Buy and Hodl and get high af after market close.
|
||||
|
||||
As always, if you read everything, I appreciate your time, and I hope you learned something useful!
|
||||
|
||||
TLDR: Read da post ape. Price action eerily similar to other time frames just before we saw extremely explosive price action. Assuming the patterns are valid, expect GME to be relatively sideways for the next day or 2. Also, don't fucking day trade GME.
|
||||
Reference in New Issue
Block a user