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Create 2021-06-06-Elliot-Wave-Update.md
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GME 6/6 Weekend Update: Elliott Wave Count handcrafted by H4HU; lots of reads here, and it is all funky but very positive potential in all of them
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| Author | Source |
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| [u/head4headsup](https://www.reddit.com/user/head4headsup/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nu2iyp/gme_66_weekend_update_elliott_wave_count/) |
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---
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[DD 👨🔬](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22DD%20%F0%9F%91%A8%E2%80%8D%F0%9F%94%AC%22&restrict_sr=1)
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[](https://preview.redd.it/g17muvyodr371.jpg?width=1515&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=d5eb71db3dadc5de1ba27205895fb9f56842dad0)
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GME Micro (5-minute candles): 6/6 Weekend Update
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*Obligatory Intro...*
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This is an analysis of GME stock price movements using Elliott Wave Theory. To learn the basics of Elliott Wave (EW, please visit) [r/ElliottWaveTrading](https://www.reddit.com/r/ElliottWaveTrading/). I also recommend the book Elliott Wave Principle by Frost & Prechter (link in that sub. While Elliott Wave is great at predicting price targets in the most probable coming scenarios, it does not make timing projections. Wave development can occur over long periods of time or in just a few candles of the chart (as witnessed in JAN and MAR for GME. EW can be useful for the investor in many ways, especially if seeking to buy, and looking for the next most probable dip (discount in the share price; it can provide clarity in moments of chaos to aid the observer in understanding likely next moves within a trend or countertrend, avoiding blindness/guessing (among many other uses. It may build stoicism and be easier to avoid paper hands if the dip you encounter was expected. Knowing something may be coming, and what it may look like, is often less distracting that being blindsided.))
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**REMEMBER THIS**... I AM NOT SAYING SELL, I AM NOT SAYING BUY. I AM NOT SAYING DAY-TRADE THIS. I am simply offering my opinion of market movements of GME. Go back up there ^ and read the Obligatory Intro. Please. Then come back down here.
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> Reading My Charts:\
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> There are a few differing sources for the correct way to label the degree of waves. Some require circles, some double parenthesis. I have settled on this for my waves, and it will be handy to reference this if my charts are to make any sense.\
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> Supercycle (Major): (I) - (V) *may take months or years to complete.*\
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> *Wave (I) took nearly 20 years. Wave (II) may have only taken a month.*\
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> Cycle: I-V *may take weeks or months to complete*\
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> Primary: (i)-(v) *take days or weeks to complete*\
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> Minor: (1)-(5) *may take hours or days to complete*\
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> Minuette: i-v *may take hours to complete*\
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> Micro: 1-5 *may take minutes to hours to complete*\
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> Miniscule: ((i))-((v)) *may take minutes to hours to complete*
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~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
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Weekend Update
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So, last week it looked like GME had completed a (i)-(ii) setup in Cycle wave III to wrap up May, followed by what appeared to be a (1)-(2) setup in wave (iii) of III to lead off June. Typically, a 'third of a third' wave is a rip-your-face-off-no-question-about-it situation. Is that what this feels like? meh.
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U-G-L-Y, You ain't got no alibi, you ugly!
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Rather, if wave (iii) indeed has started, it did so with what can best be viewed as a rather ugly start to a 3rd wave... a Leading Diagonal (at best) for wave 'i' of (1) of (iii) on Tuesday, and a truncated wave 'v' of (1) of (iii) on Wednesday. This has since been followed by a wave (2) that either completed in the first half hour of trading Thursday and was followed by yet another Leading Diagonal in 'i' of (3) of (iii) and an incredibly deep retrace in 'ii', OR wave (2) has not yet completed and the Alt Yellow count is in play, with A and B being in, and a new C completing now. And how is it doing that??? Yeah... the same M.O. we've seen from GME in corrective phases... if we zoom out a tad bit, we see something all to familiar with GME... these damn consolidation wedges!!!! Yep I see it.
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Tribe Called Quest - Yo' where the heck are we?
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Murky. That is where we are... murky waters. The best read I can get (in the absence of a glorious impulse wave to the upside to slap the taste out of my mouth), is MAYBE the Alt Yellow count edges out the primary. Just too damn funky for this to be a beautiful clean unconfused Three. I think more consolidation sideways, or some nominal downside gives the reset for a much cleaner start to (3) of (iii). I will happily be wrong here to see an explosive rip to the upside (breaking above $300) to confirm that (3) of (iii) of III is indeed underway.
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After that? - UPSIDE... yes, as noted above, once Wave (ii) is confirmed complete (preferrably with a break above $300), we finally get the dramatic, fabled, oft revered "3rd of a 3rd"... in this case Primary Wave (iii) of Cycle Wave III. Here is a taste of where I think we are and where we are headed.
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[](https://preview.redd.it/t4d91dbmfr371.jpg?width=1532&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=65ebca04bf3b52d33a804288c26c93ca4c5bf0cd)
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GME Hourly candles - 6/6 Weekend Update: If primary bullish plays out
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[](https://preview.redd.it/n4agaw5ter371.jpg?width=1382&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=5d106716510ec4af707269906c344c73567e881f)
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More sideways or downside is the left circle; immediate break of $300 confirms right side circle
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~~~~~ End Weekend Update ~~~
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Big Picture
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I believe we have started Cycle III, with Primary Wave (i) and (ii) likely completed.
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Cycle III must subdivide in five Primary waves: (i)-(v), each likely taking weeks;
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- which would each need to subdivide in five Minor waves (1)-(5), each likely taking hour or days;
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- which would each need to subdivide in five Minuette waves i-v, each taking hours;
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- each subdividing in five Micro waves 1-5, each taking minutes to hours.
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So how did we do with EW during wave (i)?
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*A String of Pearls (EW Successes - Fib targets hit proximity or surpassed) -*
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Once that Micro Wave (1) and (2) were in place, it looked like (3) was underway with a i-ii in place on Monday 5/24. My targets for more upside once iii was underway were:
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> Wave 3 of iii of (3) - $212.73 at the 1.236 fibs. It reached this and struck Phi (The Golden Ratio) at the 1.618, clearing it by 4 cents landing at $217.07. This also found confluence of the 1.0 larger degree i common for a "3-of-3", clearing by 25 cents.\
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> Wave 4 of iii retrace targeted the 1.0 at $205.71. It came up shallow, but in a sufficient range and wave count at $206.25, within 54 cents\
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> Wave iii targeted at least $213.11, reached that and extended to $217.11\
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> Wave (3) would normally target the 1.382 fib, reached that and surpassed, nearly reaching Phi/1.618 at $249.37, settling just short at $248.4 before turning down in Wave (4)\
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> Wave (4) retrace - $226.29 target; $227.08 actual (within 79 cents).\
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> Wave iv of (5) - $250.15 target; actual $251.23 (within $1.08)\
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> Wave (5)/(i) - v of (5) targeted $270.10 at the 1.618; (5) targeted - $269.47 at the 2.0; (i) targeted the $254.63 at the .382 (surpassed in the subwaves) ~~~ Actual: $268.00 (within $2.10 of Minuette wave target; $1.47 of Minor wave target; surpassed Cycle wave target by $13.37.... this is why I stated earlier that Larger degree wave targets are overridden by the more accurate subwave targets as they develop).~~~
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Recall that when upcoming waves are projected from the larger degree 1-2, they are guideposts of what to expect, but the more accurate projections come from the calculations of the subwaves as they develop in that wave degree. Once wave (ii) completes, and we have confirmation with a new impulse in wave (1) of (iii), then I can more accurately calculate projections of where (iii) [and then naturally (iv) and (iv) also depending on their subwaves] will complete. Remember - targets may extend if prior subwaves develop with extensions.
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This is again just one theory of technical analysis (and the most accurate I've seen). It is prudent to consider this may be how it plays out, even if hopes are for this to get thrown out the window once we moon and circuit breakers start trippin' etc. Until moon, I am left with leveraging my understanding of human psychology en masse and how it is reflected in price in the markets. Elliott Wave analysis infers it may be possible.... Diamond Hands are earned, not given!
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I am so excited for this. Of course if the circuit breakers trip and I get a MOASS instead, I'm sure I'll be just fine.
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~~~~ end of Big Picture ~~~~
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Really Big Picture: Major Waves Completed (aka How Did We Get Here?)
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- I believe Major Waves (I) and (II) are in place (January High and February Low, respectively)
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- I believe we are in major wave (III), with Major waves I and II in place (March high and April low, respectively)
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- I believe we are in wave III, with wave (ii) underway
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- I believe we are in wave C of (ii). C completes (ii), but too deep (below $222) and this impulse invalidates.
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Longer Term Targets Still Intact (not invalidated) -
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- (iii) of III UPDATED - at the 1.000 extension of I from II = $445.59; $422.36-$453.37 as 1.746-2.0 of (ii)
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- III of (III) - at the 1.000 extension of (I) from (II) = $520.12
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- (III) - at the 1.764 extension of same degree waves (I) from (II) = $850.23
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- All of these subject to recalculation as subwaves develop. Subwave target calculations override projections from fibs of larger waves completed, but finding confluence at those fibs is great confirmation.
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*I realize the MOASS could just blow these labels up and force me to use the double parenthesis-bold-capital Roman numeral* *((I**))* *etc for a degree beyond the current (I**-(V). I hope we get that chance. It will be glorious to bust out that gigantic crayon. Word. What is very likely is that once artificial means are employed to satisfy a short squeeze (e.g. circuit breakers; DTCC forced purchases to resolve a defaulting member) then EW targets cease to be effective, and will come back into play once selling of shares occurs on the backside of the squeeze.)*
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**Housekeeping Reminder -** Label placements should not be inferred as 'timing' projections. EW does not espouse 'when', just likely 'where' price targets are hit before turning back up or down. Labels are placed on the chart for general ease of visualizing how the wave may develop at price points. There are some great analysts that post Bayesian Timing targets, but I have not seen any doing so for GME yet.
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~~~~~
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TL;DR - Weird place. A couple of wave counts show potential for much more upside, a couple alternate counts show more consolidation/sideways action or nominal downside. A clean impulse to the upside puts the murky read to bed and give me much better basis to calculate upside targets from the currently developing wave.
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~~~~ end TL;DR ~~~~
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In Ape - The bananas up here were great... and even with this rest, the bigger bananas up higher are still easily within view. If I rest a little more, will feel really strong and start Leaping Up to the higher branches... but the strong branch is just below me. If I slip from that one, the next one is a little ways down. Gotta watch my footing here with all these banana peels laying around.
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~~~~~~~~~
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H4HU - EWApe/HODLer/💎👐🏼/I Like The Stock! I am long GME. I have never sold short.
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To learn the basics of Elliott Wave, please visit [r/ElliottWaveTrading](https://www.reddit.com/r/ElliottWaveTrading/).
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PLEASE NOTE:
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- This is not financial advice, I am not a registered broker and this is for entertainment purposes only.
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- Past performance does not equal future returns, and all equity investments entail risk.
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- The views expressed are the views of the author, and opinions expressed in the text belong solely to the author.
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- The views expressed are solely the author's approach to investing in this specific equity.
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