Create FTD-Volume-in-Shorted-Stocks-have-Clear-Cycles.md

Failures-to-Deliver/FTD-Volume-in-Shorted-Stocks-have-Clear-Cycles.md

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+FTD VOLUME IN SHORTED STOCKS HAVE CLEAR CYCLES - HODL 🚀🚀🚀
+============================================================
+
+**Author: [u/floW--](https://www.reddit.com/user/floW--/)**
+
+[🐵 Discussion 💬](https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/search?q=flair_name%3A%22%F0%9F%90%B5%20Discussion%20%F0%9F%92%AC%22&restrict_sr=1)
+
+I've been looking at a lot of numbers recently and I have a much longer post in the works that goes through everything, but
+
+I felt that I needed to offer this now.
+
+Not financial advice.
+
+Have you ever asked yourself, "XYZ crushed their earnings last week, yesterday they they released two new products, how are they down 3 straight days?"
+
+Or better, have you heard CNBC say, "XYZ is up 35% in the last three days on news some policy announced three months ago?"
+
+A large part of the reason shit doesn't make sense has to do with FTD's. Check out FTD stats for a bunch of companies and compare that to price and you'll notice a few things pretty quick:
+
+1.  Some dates (usually clusters of 3-6 days) have spikes in FTD volume that can be double, triple, or *orders of magnitude* higher than other dates. Price normally falls after dates with such high FTD volume. Duh, every unsettled FTD is excess supply.
+
+2.  Stock price normally makes a full recovery, if not more, by 6 trading days after the FTD spike (due to the T+6 rule). Usually prices accelerate as the 6th day approaches, and sometimes they rapidly accelerate for 1-2 more days before dropping.
+
+3.  If the stock price doesn't fully recover 6-8 days past the FTD spike, it typically will not recover until ~35 days after the spike, due to the 35 extension rule available to Market Makers.
+
+4.  If the stock price does not fully recover by 35 days, it often begins acceleration ~35 days later, continuing to accelerate for another ~35 days before slowing. This ends in another FTD spike.
+
+I don't know why this long cycle occurs, but since it's a MM issue beyond 6 days, I'd imagine it has to do with manipulating ETF's.
+
+for example
+
+Take a look at [TSLA's FTD data](https://fintel.io/ss/us/tsla) toward the bottom of the page. Those massive spikes are on 9/1 and 12/16. The 5 trading days after 9/1, TSLA fell from $475 to $330 before climbing to $450 in the next 5 days. It did not recover until 37 days later on 10/7. ~3.5 months after the 9/1 spike, TSLA had another massive FTD spike and the price doubled from $400 in late November to $800 in early January.
+
+[Here is SNDL's FTD data](https://fintel.io/ss/us/sndl) for comparison. FTD spike is 2/1 at $1.21 and the price reached $3 on the 8th following trading day.
+
+[How about DraftKings?](https://fintel.io/ss/us/dkng) Two spikes just under 4 months apart. One in late June and no recovery until early September (~70 days) ending in another FTD spike in October.
+
+Note: the effect of these spikes is largely relative to its percentage of daily volume
+
+IN MY OPINION
+
+I believe GME is in the seat TSLA was in during Feb. 2020. I think TSLA has been slowly squoozing since early 2020 and happened to be the first of many riding the rocket of unwinding shorts.
+
+TSLA rose up to $180 on 2/21/2020 then fell to $85 in March. It's recovery began on 3/27, but it didn't recover the $180 mark until the middle of June, just under 4 months from the spike in Feb. I'd bet there was a FTD spike in the first half of June but idk. After it recovered $180, it climbed to $475 by 9/1, and the rest of the story is above.
+
+[GameStop's FTD](https://fintel.io/ss/us/gme) cycles are *massive* and they've only gotten bigger.
+
+May to September, September to January, January to ???
+
+The difference with GME is low supply.
+
+We own the float.
+
+HODL