diff --git a/Confirmation-Bias-and-Discussion/2021-09-07-We-Are-Back-at-March-10-Credit-Default-Index-Restructuring-Tomorrow.md b/Confirmation-Bias-and-Discussion/2021-09-07-We-Are-Back-at-March-10-Credit-Default-Index-Restructuring-Tomorrow.md new file mode 100644 index 0000000..74c304e --- /dev/null +++ b/Confirmation-Bias-and-Discussion/2021-09-07-We-Are-Back-at-March-10-Credit-Default-Index-Restructuring-Tomorrow.md @@ -0,0 +1,51 @@ +We are back at March 10th - Credit Default Swap Index Restructuring Tomorrow +============================================================================ + +| Author | Source | +| :-------------: |:-------------:| +| [u/AiRiiD](https://www.reddit.com/user/AiRiiD/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/pk14l3/we_are_back_at_march_10th_credit_default_swap/) | + +--- + + +[Possible DD 👨‍🔬](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22Possible%20DD%20%F0%9F%91%A8%E2%80%8D%F0%9F%94%AC%22&restrict_sr=1) + +I was reading [this](https://www.reddit.com/r/Autisticats/comments/p9rija/gamestop_lay_back_enjoy_the_show/) wonderful post on [Loan-only Credit Default Swaps](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/l/loan-credit-default-swap.asp) and how a [credit-event](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/credit-event.asp) involving [Europcar Mobility Group S.A.](https://www.creditfixings.com/CreditEventAuctions/holdings.jsp?auctionId=9169) may have been what caused the sneeze in January. + +Upon further research I see that IHS Markit are the leading institution that handles the swaps market. + + + +They manage Credit Default Swap indices such as the CDX. (Could this be the 'meme stock' swap basket?) + +According to their site: + +> The indices roll semi-annually in March and September. Credit events that trigger settlement for individual components include bankruptcy and failure to pay, wherein credit events are settled via auctions. + +So these CDS index's rollover and the securities inside are restructured every 6 months during March and September. + +Their [news page](https://www.markit.com/NewsInformation/GetNews/CDX) lists a few PDF's that show the Index Rollover Dates - + +March - + +[![r/Superstonk - We are back at March 10th - Credit Default Swap Index Restructuring Tomorrow](https://preview.redd.it/0pxj1czbm6m71.png?width=753&format=png&auto=webp&s=d82519e9d1d00ea0725f41126398edaaac87cb8f)](https://preview.redd.it/0pxj1czbm6m71.png?width=753&format=png&auto=webp&s=d82519e9d1d00ea0725f41126398edaaac87cb8f) + +March 10th.. sound familiar? + +So just at first glance we can see on March 10th they released their list of additions and removals from the index. I imagine this is akin to a restructure of securities, something like what an ETF would do. Apes will remember March 10th because it was the day when GME ran to 350 before being shorted down 170 moments later. + +[![r/Superstonk - We are back at March 10th - Credit Default Swap Index Restructuring Tomorrow](https://preview.redd.it/8ui55cfan6m71.png?width=347&format=png&auto=webp&s=9d839bbf0dd0839f3e3a6f4b8a72423dbfe0b9ed)](https://preview.redd.it/8ui55cfan6m71.png?width=347&format=png&auto=webp&s=9d839bbf0dd0839f3e3a6f4b8a72423dbfe0b9ed) + +September - + +[![r/Superstonk - We are back at March 10th - Credit Default Swap Index Restructuring Tomorrow](https://preview.redd.it/1obpqhdpn6m71.png?width=764&format=png&auto=webp&s=03005fdc12d47fd66aa7c2105ac5105ad2ed4b9b)](https://preview.redd.it/1obpqhdpn6m71.png?width=764&format=png&auto=webp&s=03005fdc12d47fd66aa7c2105ac5105ad2ed4b9b) + +The next rollover dates show that the same index restructuring from March is occurring again on September 8th. + +Correlation does not equal causation, but considering we know GME is being abused by Credit Default Swaps, and high volatility was present during the last rollover date, we may see another price run tomorrow. + +P.S. I'm smooth-brain and have no clue what I'm doing. I'm not a financial advisor, I just like the stock. hedgies r fuk + +TL;DR + +We're back at March 10th, a credit default swap index is being restructured again and so we may see increased volatility tomorrow.