From f19315d0ed0ff842e18f215b7b6582f288a826a5 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: verymeticulous Date: Sun, 11 Jul 2021 08:52:54 -0400 Subject: [PATCH] Create 2021-07-10-Peering-into-the-Algorithm-Part-I.md --- ...07-10-Peering-into-the-Algorithm-Part-I.md | 97 +++++++++++++++++++ 1 file changed, 97 insertions(+) create mode 100644 DD/Breaking-the-Algorithm-by-go-do-that-thing/2021-07-10-Peering-into-the-Algorithm-Part-I.md diff --git a/DD/Breaking-the-Algorithm-by-go-do-that-thing/2021-07-10-Peering-into-the-Algorithm-Part-I.md b/DD/Breaking-the-Algorithm-by-go-do-that-thing/2021-07-10-Peering-into-the-Algorithm-Part-I.md new file mode 100644 index 0000000..a26490b --- /dev/null +++ b/DD/Breaking-the-Algorithm-by-go-do-that-thing/2021-07-10-Peering-into-the-Algorithm-Part-I.md @@ -0,0 +1,97 @@ +The price is made up - Peering into the Algo +============================================ + +| Author | Source | +| :-------------: |:-------------:| +| [u/go_do_that_thing](https://www.reddit.com/user/go_do_that_thing/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/ohs1y5/the_price_is_made_up_peering_into_the_algo/) | + +--- + + +[DD 👨‍🔬](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22DD%20%F0%9F%91%A8%E2%80%8D%F0%9F%94%AC%22&restrict_sr=1) + +Alright crayon munchers have I got a scoop for you. + +Gather round, sit down and buckle up. + +Look at this chart below + +[![r/Superstonk - The price is made up - Peering into the Algo](https://preview.redd.it/r0nbgkr49ga71.png?width=1135&format=png&auto=webp&s=52f0d5c2afdec4012f1e37e7776be35dd2dd66c8)](https://preview.redd.it/r0nbgkr49ga71.png?width=1135&format=png&auto=webp&s=52f0d5c2afdec4012f1e37e7776be35dd2dd66c8) + +Recognise it? You should. That's Gamestop. + +Let's now make an assumption. + +First assumption: An Algorithm is doing almost everything. + +That is all. Simple. Remember it. + +Now lets look at Gamestop and just spot some features that an algorithm might use. Maybe some peaks, some troughs, just be creative with it for now. + +[![r/Superstonk - The price is made up - Peering into the Algo](https://preview.redd.it/b9nmeofb9ga71.png?width=1631&format=png&auto=webp&s=7b1eb29c0f0bf70875f1b775d159e9fb400e7edc)](https://preview.redd.it/b9nmeofb9ga71.png?width=1631&format=png&auto=webp&s=7b1eb29c0f0bf70875f1b775d159e9fb400e7edc) + +Then we start making better connections, and patterns start to emerge. We've already picked out repeating features 3 times, some even more. Whats going on here? + +[![r/Superstonk - The price is made up - Peering into the Algo](https://preview.redd.it/l88f0xyn9ga71.png?width=995&format=png&auto=webp&s=c2c21cf4bf8c827ef9ed7da7e8497014fa2cb18e)](https://preview.redd.it/l88f0xyn9ga71.png?width=995&format=png&auto=webp&s=c2c21cf4bf8c827ef9ed7da7e8497014fa2cb18e) + +Next lets pick some crucial points, the start and the middle seem OK. Let's see if we can group some of these bad boys together and see. + +Taking a bunch of points of interest and mashing their pictures together gives some nice comparisons. Notice how they all curve in the same general direction. With a big white space over in this corner, and another over here. This means i found some good consistencies. + +[![r/Superstonk - The price is made up - Peering into the Algo](https://preview.redd.it/wvnfgr4caga71.png?width=279&format=png&auto=webp&s=5aa193e7f131cfdce39b85f9e73401889b587238)](https://preview.redd.it/wvnfgr4caga71.png?width=279&format=png&auto=webp&s=5aa193e7f131cfdce39b85f9e73401889b587238) + +This tells me the points i selected are all pretty consistent with an overall goal that an AI might use. Lets pick out all those sections individually. They all have a substantial increase at the beginning of the cycle and die down towards the end. + +[![r/Superstonk - The price is made up - Peering into the Algo](https://preview.redd.it/fkqils86lga71.png?width=601&format=png&auto=webp&s=5b8538ee0afee0d4a51d895c1672ea961bd93c17)](https://preview.redd.it/fkqils86lga71.png?width=601&format=png&auto=webp&s=5b8538ee0afee0d4a51d895c1672ea961bd93c17) + +Counting all the cycles we can break the chart down into 4 sections. + +The red lines are the duration of the cycle, the grey curves point to the start/end day and encompass the max price in that cycle. + +Each cycle begins with a significant uptick on the daily. + +[![r/Superstonk - The price is made up - Peering into the Algo](https://preview.redd.it/49kiam8kgga71.png?width=1145&format=png&auto=webp&s=ddb811c147de9e15a6765402607f1c689f0f8261)](https://preview.redd.it/49kiam8kgga71.png?width=1145&format=png&auto=webp&s=ddb811c147de9e15a6765402607f1c689f0f8261) + +We can put a simple curve around the start/end days and over the peak of the session. + +The cycle is at the end of the 4th sequence. + +So far 3 out of 4 start cycles have resulted in a significant moon of the stock. + +We can then come up with 2 options. It moons again, or we wait another cycle. Lets graph them. + +First up we have the moon case, brought to you by a Kitty + +[![r/Superstonk - The price is made up - Peering into the Algo](https://preview.redd.it/g07ecdhybga71.png?width=983&format=png&auto=webp&s=ea3091b1506b5d594ed21fc6567828971d88f0e6)](https://preview.redd.it/g07ecdhybga71.png?width=983&format=png&auto=webp&s=ea3091b1506b5d594ed21fc6567828971d88f0e6) + +I am not a cat + +Or we get the less exciting nothingburger + +[![r/Superstonk - The price is made up - Peering into the Algo](https://preview.redd.it/lqadqym7cga71.png?width=955&format=png&auto=webp&s=99cb30cf675e09df25145ed82554b3df6c382ee4)](https://preview.redd.it/lqadqym7cga71.png?width=955&format=png&auto=webp&s=99cb30cf675e09df25145ed82554b3df6c382ee4) + +boo + +Each cycle is 25 to 35 business days durations roughly. + +I went and measured from the first uptick 12 jan. It's been 120 business days (124-4). + +4 average cycles is 120 days. This could be a start over point in the algorithm, or it could go into reverse? A reset seems likely to my mind. + +This puts Monday as day 1 of the new cycle. Or any day this week if there's delays for whatever reason. + +We will know when the cycle has restarted because it will gain significantly. Although this gains may be lost in the coming days or go full MOASS. The MOASS could "start" 3 days after this uptick. (it may have already gained significantly by this time, but the algo phase takes 3 days). + +Failure to break out in this cycle will mean waiting until the next restart of the cycle in approx 30 trading days. We won't know for about a week if this is the MOASS cycle. + +SUMMARY tldr + +Constant cycles obvious. Start dates of cycle clear. Current cycle is ending. Coincides with halfway point of year, 4 cycles complete. The algo may reset to January conditions. Monday (or any day this week) could be first day of new cycle. + +First day of next cycle will have a significant uptick & may spiral into MOASS. MOASS may not occur immediately (3-7 days after first uptick), but the uptick means a new cycle has begun and the dice have been rolled. There won't be another cycle ending for around 30 business days. + +Buckle Up. + +I am not a cat. + +Not financial advise