The price is made up - Peering into the Algo ============================================ | Author | Source | | :-------------: |:-------------:| | [u/go_do_that_thing](https://www.reddit.com/user/go_do_that_thing/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/ohs1y5/the_price_is_made_up_peering_into_the_algo/) | --- [DD 👨‍🔬](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22DD%20%F0%9F%91%A8%E2%80%8D%F0%9F%94%AC%22&restrict_sr=1) Alright crayon munchers have I got a scoop for you. Gather round, sit down and buckle up. Look at this chart below [![r/Superstonk - The price is made up - Peering into the Algo](https://preview.redd.it/r0nbgkr49ga71.png?width=1135&format=png&auto=webp&s=52f0d5c2afdec4012f1e37e7776be35dd2dd66c8)](https://preview.redd.it/r0nbgkr49ga71.png?width=1135&format=png&auto=webp&s=52f0d5c2afdec4012f1e37e7776be35dd2dd66c8) Recognise it? You should. That's Gamestop. Let's now make an assumption. First assumption: An Algorithm is doing almost everything. That is all. Simple. Remember it. Now lets look at Gamestop and just spot some features that an algorithm might use. Maybe some peaks, some troughs, just be creative with it for now. [![r/Superstonk - The price is made up - Peering into the Algo](https://preview.redd.it/b9nmeofb9ga71.png?width=1631&format=png&auto=webp&s=7b1eb29c0f0bf70875f1b775d159e9fb400e7edc)](https://preview.redd.it/b9nmeofb9ga71.png?width=1631&format=png&auto=webp&s=7b1eb29c0f0bf70875f1b775d159e9fb400e7edc) Then we start making better connections, and patterns start to emerge. We've already picked out repeating features 3 times, some even more. Whats going on here? [![r/Superstonk - The price is made up - Peering into the Algo](https://preview.redd.it/l88f0xyn9ga71.png?width=995&format=png&auto=webp&s=c2c21cf4bf8c827ef9ed7da7e8497014fa2cb18e)](https://preview.redd.it/l88f0xyn9ga71.png?width=995&format=png&auto=webp&s=c2c21cf4bf8c827ef9ed7da7e8497014fa2cb18e) Next lets pick some crucial points, the start and the middle seem OK. Let's see if we can group some of these bad boys together and see. Taking a bunch of points of interest and mashing their pictures together gives some nice comparisons. Notice how they all curve in the same general direction. With a big white space over in this corner, and another over here. This means i found some good consistencies. [![r/Superstonk - The price is made up - Peering into the Algo](https://preview.redd.it/wvnfgr4caga71.png?width=279&format=png&auto=webp&s=5aa193e7f131cfdce39b85f9e73401889b587238)](https://preview.redd.it/wvnfgr4caga71.png?width=279&format=png&auto=webp&s=5aa193e7f131cfdce39b85f9e73401889b587238) This tells me the points i selected are all pretty consistent with an overall goal that an AI might use. Lets pick out all those sections individually. They all have a substantial increase at the beginning of the cycle and die down towards the end. [![r/Superstonk - The price is made up - Peering into the Algo](https://preview.redd.it/fkqils86lga71.png?width=601&format=png&auto=webp&s=5b8538ee0afee0d4a51d895c1672ea961bd93c17)](https://preview.redd.it/fkqils86lga71.png?width=601&format=png&auto=webp&s=5b8538ee0afee0d4a51d895c1672ea961bd93c17) Counting all the cycles we can break the chart down into 4 sections. The red lines are the duration of the cycle, the grey curves point to the start/end day and encompass the max price in that cycle. Each cycle begins with a significant uptick on the daily. [![r/Superstonk - The price is made up - Peering into the Algo](https://preview.redd.it/49kiam8kgga71.png?width=1145&format=png&auto=webp&s=ddb811c147de9e15a6765402607f1c689f0f8261)](https://preview.redd.it/49kiam8kgga71.png?width=1145&format=png&auto=webp&s=ddb811c147de9e15a6765402607f1c689f0f8261) We can put a simple curve around the start/end days and over the peak of the session. The cycle is at the end of the 4th sequence. So far 3 out of 4 start cycles have resulted in a significant moon of the stock. We can then come up with 2 options. It moons again, or we wait another cycle. Lets graph them. First up we have the moon case, brought to you by a Kitty [![r/Superstonk - The price is made up - Peering into the Algo](https://preview.redd.it/g07ecdhybga71.png?width=983&format=png&auto=webp&s=ea3091b1506b5d594ed21fc6567828971d88f0e6)](https://preview.redd.it/g07ecdhybga71.png?width=983&format=png&auto=webp&s=ea3091b1506b5d594ed21fc6567828971d88f0e6) I am not a cat Or we get the less exciting nothingburger [![r/Superstonk - The price is made up - Peering into the Algo](https://preview.redd.it/lqadqym7cga71.png?width=955&format=png&auto=webp&s=99cb30cf675e09df25145ed82554b3df6c382ee4)](https://preview.redd.it/lqadqym7cga71.png?width=955&format=png&auto=webp&s=99cb30cf675e09df25145ed82554b3df6c382ee4) boo Each cycle is 25 to 35 business days durations roughly. I went and measured from the first uptick 12 jan. It's been 120 business days (124-4). 4 average cycles is 120 days. This could be a start over point in the algorithm, or it could go into reverse? A reset seems likely to my mind. This puts Monday as day 1 of the new cycle. Or any day this week if there's delays for whatever reason. We will know when the cycle has restarted because it will gain significantly. Although this gains may be lost in the coming days or go full MOASS. The MOASS could "start" 3 days after this uptick. (it may have already gained significantly by this time, but the algo phase takes 3 days). Failure to break out in this cycle will mean waiting until the next restart of the cycle in approx 30 trading days. We won't know for about a week if this is the MOASS cycle. SUMMARY tldr Constant cycles obvious. Start dates of cycle clear. Current cycle is ending. Coincides with halfway point of year, 4 cycles complete. The algo may reset to January conditions. Monday (or any day this week) could be first day of new cycle. First day of next cycle will have a significant uptick & may spiral into MOASS. MOASS may not occur immediately (3-7 days after first uptick), but the uptick means a new cycle has begun and the dice have been rolled. There won't be another cycle ending for around 30 business days. Buckle Up. I am not a cat. Not financial advise