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Create 2021-07-10-Peering-into-the-Algorithm-Part-I.md
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The price is made up - Peering into the Algo
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============================================
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| Author | Source |
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| :-------------: |:-------------:|
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| [u/go_do_that_thing](https://www.reddit.com/user/go_do_that_thing/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/ohs1y5/the_price_is_made_up_peering_into_the_algo/) |
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---
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[DD 👨🔬](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22DD%20%F0%9F%91%A8%E2%80%8D%F0%9F%94%AC%22&restrict_sr=1)
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Alright crayon munchers have I got a scoop for you.
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Gather round, sit down and buckle up.
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Look at this chart below
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[](https://preview.redd.it/r0nbgkr49ga71.png?width=1135&format=png&auto=webp&s=52f0d5c2afdec4012f1e37e7776be35dd2dd66c8)
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Recognise it? You should. That's Gamestop.
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Let's now make an assumption.
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First assumption: An Algorithm is doing almost everything.
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That is all. Simple. Remember it.
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Now lets look at Gamestop and just spot some features that an algorithm might use. Maybe some peaks, some troughs, just be creative with it for now.
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[](https://preview.redd.it/b9nmeofb9ga71.png?width=1631&format=png&auto=webp&s=7b1eb29c0f0bf70875f1b775d159e9fb400e7edc)
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Then we start making better connections, and patterns start to emerge. We've already picked out repeating features 3 times, some even more. Whats going on here?
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[](https://preview.redd.it/l88f0xyn9ga71.png?width=995&format=png&auto=webp&s=c2c21cf4bf8c827ef9ed7da7e8497014fa2cb18e)
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Next lets pick some crucial points, the start and the middle seem OK. Let's see if we can group some of these bad boys together and see.
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Taking a bunch of points of interest and mashing their pictures together gives some nice comparisons. Notice how they all curve in the same general direction. With a big white space over in this corner, and another over here. This means i found some good consistencies.
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[](https://preview.redd.it/wvnfgr4caga71.png?width=279&format=png&auto=webp&s=5aa193e7f131cfdce39b85f9e73401889b587238)
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This tells me the points i selected are all pretty consistent with an overall goal that an AI might use. Lets pick out all those sections individually. They all have a substantial increase at the beginning of the cycle and die down towards the end.
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[](https://preview.redd.it/fkqils86lga71.png?width=601&format=png&auto=webp&s=5b8538ee0afee0d4a51d895c1672ea961bd93c17)
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Counting all the cycles we can break the chart down into 4 sections.
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The red lines are the duration of the cycle, the grey curves point to the start/end day and encompass the max price in that cycle.
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Each cycle begins with a significant uptick on the daily.
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[](https://preview.redd.it/49kiam8kgga71.png?width=1145&format=png&auto=webp&s=ddb811c147de9e15a6765402607f1c689f0f8261)
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We can put a simple curve around the start/end days and over the peak of the session.
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The cycle is at the end of the 4th sequence.
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So far 3 out of 4 start cycles have resulted in a significant moon of the stock.
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We can then come up with 2 options. It moons again, or we wait another cycle. Lets graph them.
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First up we have the moon case, brought to you by a Kitty
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[](https://preview.redd.it/g07ecdhybga71.png?width=983&format=png&auto=webp&s=ea3091b1506b5d594ed21fc6567828971d88f0e6)
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I am not a cat
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Or we get the less exciting nothingburger
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[](https://preview.redd.it/lqadqym7cga71.png?width=955&format=png&auto=webp&s=99cb30cf675e09df25145ed82554b3df6c382ee4)
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boo
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Each cycle is 25 to 35 business days durations roughly.
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I went and measured from the first uptick 12 jan. It's been 120 business days (124-4).
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4 average cycles is 120 days. This could be a start over point in the algorithm, or it could go into reverse? A reset seems likely to my mind.
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This puts Monday as day 1 of the new cycle. Or any day this week if there's delays for whatever reason.
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We will know when the cycle has restarted because it will gain significantly. Although this gains may be lost in the coming days or go full MOASS. The MOASS could "start" 3 days after this uptick. (it may have already gained significantly by this time, but the algo phase takes 3 days).
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Failure to break out in this cycle will mean waiting until the next restart of the cycle in approx 30 trading days. We won't know for about a week if this is the MOASS cycle.
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SUMMARY tldr
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Constant cycles obvious. Start dates of cycle clear. Current cycle is ending. Coincides with halfway point of year, 4 cycles complete. The algo may reset to January conditions. Monday (or any day this week) could be first day of new cycle.
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First day of next cycle will have a significant uptick & may spiral into MOASS. MOASS may not occur immediately (3-7 days after first uptick), but the uptick means a new cycle has begun and the dice have been rolled. There won't be another cycle ending for around 30 business days.
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Buckle Up.
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I am not a cat.
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Not financial advise
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