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50
00-Getting-Started/2021-05-07-Recommended-Reading.md
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50
00-Getting-Started/2021-05-07-Recommended-Reading.md
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||||
Recommended Reading
|
||||
===================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/dlauer](https://www.reddit.com/user/dlauer/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/n6z8rs/recommended_reading/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
[Education 👨🏫 | Data 🔢](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22Education%20%F0%9F%91%A8%E2%80%8D%F0%9F%8F%AB%20%7C%20Data%20%F0%9F%94%A2%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||
When I first got a job trading, my boss recommended a couple of books - everyone in the industry has read them. Many of you probably have too, but just in case I thought I'd post this list. I'd love to hear other recommendations in the comments - most of what I read is sci-fi, history, physics and AI.
|
||||
|
||||
I'll also link to the Strand, because it's the best book store, and wherever possible we should try to not give money to monopolists like Amazon:
|
||||
|
||||
- [Reminiscences of a Stock Operator](https://www.strandbooks.com/product/9780486439266?title=reminiscences_of_a_stock_operator), by Edwin Lefevre
|
||||
|
||||
- This is the classic. You must read this if you haven't. There's nothing new under the sun. What you're attempting to do with GME is to corner the market, a tactic as old as markets. I've read this book several times and it gets better every time. There's a [new edition](https://www.strandbooks.com/product/9780470481592?title=reminiscences_of_a_stock_operator_with_new_commentary_and_insights_on_the_life_and_times_of_jesse_livermore) available too, which I haven't gotten but have heard great things about.
|
||||
|
||||
- [Against The Gods: The Remarkable Story of Risk](https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/0471295639/ref=as_li_tl?ie=UTF8&camp=1789&creative=9325&creativeASIN=0471295639&linkCode=as2&tag=urvinai-20&linkId=43635b8d6bd06a5e37fbd6f8de072107), Bernstein
|
||||
|
||||
- This is the history of risk - how we understand it, and how that understanding has evolved. Traders that survive are the ones who understand risk. I've linked to Amazon because I couldn't find it on the Strand.
|
||||
|
||||
- [When Genius Failed: The Rise and Fall of Long-Term Capital Management](https://www.strandbooks.com/product/9780375758256?title=when_genius_failed_the_rise_and_fall_of_longterm_capital_management), Lowenstein
|
||||
|
||||
- The story of LTCM - the smartest people in the room who couldn't manage risk and nearly took down the US economy when they went bust.
|
||||
|
||||
- [The Misbehavior of Markets](https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/0465043577/ref=as_li_tl?ie=UTF8&camp=1789&creative=9325&creativeASIN=0465043577&linkCode=as2&tag=urvinai-20&linkId=baf61ff7c5fd646b8e1e82d45ffca496), by Benoit Mandelbrot
|
||||
|
||||
- This is more for the math geeks who want to read about markets and fractals. I've linked to Amazon because it's not available on the Strand's website.
|
||||
|
||||
- A Random Walk Down Wall St, Malkiel
|
||||
|
||||
- It's been a while since I read it, but I remember it being an excellent overview of markets and trading. It doesn't get deep into market structure, but it's comprehensive otherwise.
|
||||
|
||||
- [Strand](https://www.strandbooks.com/product/9780393358384?title=a_random_walk_down_wall_street_the_timetested_strategy_for_successful_investing_twelfth_edition) (only a couple copies left) or [Amazon](https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/0393358380/ref=as_li_tl?ie=UTF8&camp=1789&creative=9325&creativeASIN=0393358380&linkCode=as2&tag=urvinai-20&linkId=a4f466dfc73482a77ac3fee3a9ba3062)
|
||||
|
||||
- [Liar's Poker](https://www.strandbooks.com/product/9780140143454?title=liars_poker_rising_through_the_wreckage_on_wall_street) and [Flash Boys](https://www.strandbooks.com/product/9780393351590?title=flash_boys_a_wall_street_revolt), Lewis
|
||||
|
||||
- I'd be remiss if I didn't call out Michael Lewis (who I had the pleasure of meeting when he was writing Flash Boys). Liar's Poker is an awesome book about the bond trading culture. Flash Boys has some issues - he got a lot right and he got a lot wrong. But he really highlighted the conflict-of-interest that brokers face, and I thought that made the book worthwhile.
|
||||
|
||||
- Honorable mentions:
|
||||
|
||||
- [The Predictors](https://www.strandbooks.com/product/9780805057577?title=predictors_how_a_band_of_maverick_physicists_used_chaos_theory_to_trade_their_way_to_a_fortune_on_wall_street), Bass - I read this book in the midst of learning about complex systems and chaos theory, it's the perfect complement to that if you're interested in the intersection of trading and chaos theory.
|
||||
|
||||
- [Dark Pools](https://www.strandbooks.com/product/9780307887184?title=dark_pools_the_rise_of_the_machine_traders_and_the_rigging_of_the_us_stock_market), Patterson - One of the more accessible takes on modern market structure, Scott does a great job of illustrating the influence of HFT, broker-owned dark pools, and electronic trading. He also wrote [this article](https://www.wsj.com/articles/SB10000872396390443890304578006603819735098) about me, so he's cool.
|
||||
|
||||
- [My Life as a Quant](https://www.strandbooks.com/product/9780470192733?title=my_life_as_a_quant_reflections_on_physics_and_finance), Derman - A fun read about the origins of quantitative trading, the precursor to HFT.
|
||||
|
||||
There are a couple of other much deeper books that get into market structure, execution cost analysis, and other more esoteric topics, but the books above are accessible for everyone and I think are generally great reads.
|
14
00-Getting-Started/2021-05-27-A-House-of-Cards-PDF.md
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14
00-Getting-Started/2021-05-27-A-House-of-Cards-PDF.md
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|
||||
A House of Cards parts I, II, & III in PDF
|
||||
==========================================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :----: | :----: |
|
||||
| [u/atobitt](https://www.reddit.com/user/atobitt/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nm83eb/a_house_of_cards_parts_i_ii_iii_in_pdf/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
[News 📰 | Media 📱](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22News%20%F0%9F%93%B0%20%7C%20Media%20%F0%9F%93%B1%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||
<https://pdfhost.io/v/lRQ4HqpG0_House_of_Cards_Atobitt.pdf>
|
||||
|
||||
BIIIIIIGGGG shoutout to [u/Softlykile2](https://www.reddit.com/u/Softlykile2/) for providing the link and [u/jupitair](https://www.reddit.com/u/jupitair/) for the post. Go forth and share across all of the interwebs. Let every boomer-ape absorb this information through a traditional & newspapery medium.
|
279
00-Getting-Started/2021-06-01-Game-Stop-Power-to-the-Apes.md
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279
00-Getting-Started/2021-06-01-Game-Stop-Power-to-the-Apes.md
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@ -0,0 +1,279 @@
|
||||
🎮 Game Stop 🛑
|
||||
===============
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/redchessqueen99](https://www.reddit.com/user/redchessqueen99/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nplhx7/game_stop/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
[🙌💎 Red Seal of Stonkiness 💎🙌](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22%F0%9F%99%8C%F0%9F%92%8E%20Red%20Seal%20of%20Stonkiness%20%F0%9F%92%8E%F0%9F%99%8C%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||
🎮 Game Stop 🛑 Power to the Apes
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/ki5gi2o2qk271.png?width=849&format=png&auto=webp&s=14d8d6340fdeaeb6a31770af0351c9a74b2c7338)
|
||||
|
||||
You stay stonky, San Diago.
|
||||
|
||||
Moderator Promotions
|
||||
|
||||
I am so very happy to announce that we have promoted two moderators to Full Permissions. This effectively puts them in the same moderator power level as [u/rensole](https://www.reddit.com/u/rensole/) and [u/redchessqueen99](https://www.reddit.com/u/redchessqueen99/). While Reddit's hierarchy still remains the same, these two will now have access to Community Settings and Full Permissions, giving them the ability to adjust site settings, give moderator awards, add and remove mods, and much more, but overall will be seen as top authorities in the moderator team.
|
||||
|
||||
- [u/Bye_Triangle](https://www.reddit.com/u/Bye_Triangle/)
|
||||
|
||||
- BT been with us since [r/GME](https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/) days (he wrote the [r/GME](https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/) FAQ) and has been a critical mod at [r/Superstonk](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/). His steadfast work ethic, dedication to the community, strong skills and relationships with the other mods, and his ethical stature are all key aspects of why we feel this promotion is warranted. He has also been very active in our mod chat, and has helped to keep the peace and mediate disagreements for the betterment of all mods and the community at large.
|
||||
|
||||
- [u/Pinkcatsonacid](https://www.reddit.com/u/Pinkcatsonacid/)
|
||||
|
||||
- Pink has been dedicated to this subreddit since her addition as mod. She has become a beloved friend to many of us, and I think she brings invaluable insight and purpose to the mod team as well as the community. She has demonstrated her worth time and time again with tireless work ethic, dedication to the ape community, and close relationships that no doubt will strengthen them both as it emanates outward to the rest of us.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/uc3wcx5tok271.jpg?width=1600&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=bed62b2f34bf0426b372e99eafbcf9c8f5c4e4af)
|
||||
|
||||
Apes Together Strong
|
||||
|
||||
I think this could also mark an evolutionary transition for [r/Superstonk](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/) in terms of moderator structuring and the scope of the sub itself. When [u/rensole](https://www.reddit.com/u/rensole/) and I were at [r/GME](https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/), all mods had Full Permissions. This actually caused a lot of issues since some mods abused those permissions, and it effectively led to the migration from the sub. As a result, we have been very careful with who we give permissions to in an attempt to prevent catastrophe. It's worked so far, but we feel it is time to expand permissions to those deserving.
|
||||
|
||||
[u/Bye_Triangle](https://www.reddit.com/u/Bye_Triangle/) and [u/Pinkcatsonacid](https://www.reddit.com/u/Pinkcatsonacid/) have tirelessly worked for the growth and integrity of [r/Superstonk](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/), and I have come to trust them and love them as fellow apes and friends in this journey. I have no qualms promoting them both to Full Permissions admin-level roles. We hope they can assist us heavily in acting as authorities for the sub and in leading the mod team and ape community as a whole into the future. This is very much deserved, so please make sure to give them serious congratulations. 💎💎💎 CONGRATULATIONS 💎💎💎
|
||||
|
||||
MOASS Defense
|
||||
|
||||
Over the past few months, as far back as my tenure at [r/GME](https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/), there have been questions about the MOASS and how we would protect the sub in the event of a cataclysmic series of events. Ever since, we have been working with a special team of wrinkle-brained apes, and the mods, to develop a solution to this inevitable outcome.
|
||||
|
||||
I am proud to announce that this solution is finally ready for implementation, and today it received a majority-vote from the [r/Superstonk](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/) mod team, and is therefore approved and now being implemented.
|
||||
|
||||
This plan will address the following concerns:
|
||||
|
||||
1. How will we defend against the onslaught of new members from the MOASS?
|
||||
|
||||
2. How are we going to protect against incoming FUD attacks?
|
||||
|
||||
3. How do we discourage a sub split effort?
|
||||
|
||||
4. How do we allow those hurt by age/karma limits to remain included?
|
||||
|
||||
5. What has Red been alluding to for the past two months?
|
||||
|
||||
To answer these concerns, we have worked diligently to come up with a multi-faceted plan that will no doubt secure the subreddit for the foreseen future. But first, I should introduce you to a little secret we mods have been keeping from you all... don't worry, we kept it secret for one particular and very important purpose: to study unsuspecting shills.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/7iomr9b6pk271.png?width=553&format=png&auto=webp&s=96e57d4a390575613e487e76ff99d68e41c03d36)
|
||||
|
||||
My cat on my laptop: "I'm in."
|
||||
|
||||
Please read this message:
|
||||
|
||||
Greetings to all Ape-Kind! I'm [u/grungromp](https://www.reddit.com/u/grungromp/).
|
||||
|
||||
Strap in. We've got a lot of text to get through.
|
||||
|
||||
Back in March, some Apes who have some brain wrinkles about behavior got together with some Apes who know how to use computers real good to try and develop a method of countering the invasion of nefarious actors trying to spread FUD to our community. We contacted the mods on [r/gme](https://www.reddit.com/r/gme/) to see if the project would be of worth and [u/redchessqueen99](https://www.reddit.com/u/redchessqueen99/) responded with emphatic support. Upon the Great Ape Migration to [r/Superstonk](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/), she invited us to continue our work with her direct involvement here.
|
||||
|
||||
With the behind the scenes view we were given of the sub, we've been working over the past three months to put together a system of shill detection. We wanted this to be the proverbial headshot, and needed to make sure we limited collateral damage to Apes, while also not giving shills time to adapt. We sincerely wish we'd been able to be faster about it, but we were literally generating this project from the ground up, as (to our awareness) no one has ever attempted something like this before, or even had the need to.
|
||||
|
||||
Before we describe the project, we'd like to offer you a bit of insight into what we've been seeing with the sub over the past week to establish the need, if it hasn't already been obvious to the average Ape.
|
||||
|
||||
The age and karma restrictions were originally put into place on [r/superstonk](https://www.reddit.com/r/superstonk/) on April 25. This prohibited comments from accounts under 30 days old, and posts from accounts under 60. We realized this meant that on May 25th, accounts that had been created on and around the day the restrictions were put in place would be able to start a massive FUD campaign.
|
||||
|
||||
We were right.
|
||||
|
||||
In the last week, the amount of accounts posting in the sub whom we have been able to identify as shills has increased at least 8 times. Where we were seeing 3 in 100 suspicious looking posts and accounts at times previously, over the past week that number has jumped to 24 in 100.
|
||||
|
||||
With that in mind, we have decided that now is the moment to make our stand.
|
||||
|
||||
We'd like to introduce you all to Satori.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/072qgrnnck271.png?width=2084&format=png&auto=webp&s=791923e8726db74fc069a80ad400717cc306b1b0)
|
||||
|
||||
Shorting shills since 2021.
|
||||
|
||||
One of the greatest advantages the hedge funds have had over us during this entire process is the ability to manipulate the market by using technology that we don't have access to. High frequency trading and algorithms have put a pretty massive finger on the scales to tip the markets in their favor. That is why we feel that Satori is so important and could be such a boon to the Ape community. This evens the playing field, giving us the advantage of advanced technological analysis on our home court. In essence, this allows us to "Short the Shills." They have no idea that this is coming. And they are not prepared.
|
||||
|
||||
A few points of import about Satori and it's capabilities
|
||||
|
||||
- As with our analysis of GME as a stock, Satori functions almost entirely with publicly available information. Every possible publicly seen feature of Reddit is included to some degree. While we do utilize some privileged information from the Moderation team, that is the extent of our data gathering. We do not have access to private chats, ip addresses, or anything that is not available to public view.
|
||||
|
||||
- Satori is designed to analyze every single poster in [r/Superstonk](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/) and generate a confidence interval of how likely they are to be a shill. The higher the score, the more likely the account is a shill. That information will be given to the Mods in order to inform their plans and decision making. It will not be public information. However, it is important to note that the system is designed to identify bad actors based on their actions. Just because an account hasn't posted anything shilly YET doesn't mean they never will. Therefore, a low "Shill Score™" is not considered a guarantee of Ape-ness. Do not assume that anyone posting has been granted an "all clear."
|
||||
|
||||
- As is the case with all human activity, shilling isn't a black and white issue. There is a chance of error on both ends, both shills that will go undetected as well as real Apes who are flagged as suspicious. It's a truth that we're aware of, and we've taken as much time as we could to be as accurate as possible. We have worked with the mod team and recommended several steps for mitigating this after implementation.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/cyfxillrgk271.png?width=953&format=png&auto=webp&s=f1983c2fbefe8b7fb1d54224ea47687d86869ba8)
|
||||
|
||||
Satori (覚, "consciousness") in Japanese folklore are mind-reading monkey-like monsters ("yōkai") said to dwell within the mountains of Hida and Mino.
|
||||
|
||||
- Satori is NOT designed to detect and identify negative sentiment toward GME. It is NOT designed to shut down criticism of the stock or DD. It is NOT simply a method to amplify any echo chamber effect. Continue to doubt, research, and criticize, as has been the mantra of our community since its inception. Our only aim is to contribute to making [r/Superstonk](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/) a platform where Apes can freely discuss GME and share memes by counteracting bad actors who want to disrupt our community for nefarious purposes.
|
||||
|
||||
- We are aware that transparency and sharing of information is an essential part of the Ape community. However, we are not going to be revealing the specifics of our tech, nor the metrics which it uses to analyze the content of the sub. This information may come out eventually, likely post MOASS, but if we were to give specifics in order to make an appeal to the idea of transparency, we would be handing a manual to the shills on exactly how to behave to hide from our mind reading monkey machine. Please understand that Satori has been tested and vetted in hundreds of iterations to arrive at this point, and that the Mods have seen and approved of our methods and will keep oversight over every change and decision.
|
||||
|
||||
- We will leave it to [u/redchessqueen99](https://www.reddit.com/u/redchessqueen99/) and the mod group to describe the implementation process and how the technology will be utilized. But know that our team's tits are jacked to levels unheard of before at the fact that we finally get to deploy our virtual psychic primate.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/31z3goqzgk271.jpg?width=343&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=9b77ee83ae72fca8accdb3bd9ca0c96b4ccf1829)
|
||||
|
||||
"I see... I see... I see a lot of shadow marketing companies freaking out."
|
||||
|
||||
While we have yet to use Satori for sweeping changes on the sub, the mod team has already utilized it at various points. In smaller instances, Satori has already been used to see and identify FUD campaigns, target suspicious users, and plan specific moves and posts within the community. While those instances have been helpful, we recognize the potential for what Satori is capable of is so much greater, and now is our time to utilize it to it's capacity.
|
||||
|
||||
With all that new information presented to you, we do have one small request. This is brand new. There will be some bumps along the way. We've done our best to see and plan for every possible outcome, but we are aware that we will have missed some things. It will be a bit messy as we get things up and running. You have our promise that we will continue to refine our processes and do whatever is needed to ensure this community has the protection it deserves in the face of what we're dealing with.
|
||||
|
||||
We don't mean to wax hyperbolic, but this may be one of the most powerful pieces of technology developed in history that deals specifically with community analysis and management. It's been grassroots created by Apes, for Apes, and, to our knowledge, no one else has ever developed anything like this. Apes are now in possession of an asset that gives us autonomy and power that few other online communities have ever come close to harnessing. We've taken punch after punch from the hedgies; shills, infiltrators, propaganda, media manipulation, and market manipulation. Our team could not be more proud of the way this incredible community has taken every blow and got back to our hairy, prehensile feet.
|
||||
|
||||
But now? We have a way to counter punch. Hard. And we will do it with a nuke dropped off our rocket as we leave Earth's atmosphere on our way to the stars.
|
||||
|
||||
In the words of Ryan Cohen: R.I.P. Dumb Asses
|
||||
|
||||
Apes Strong Together
|
||||
|
||||
Buy. Hodl. Vote. Fight.
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
Note from [u/redchessqueen99](https://www.reddit.com/u/redchessqueen99/)**:**
|
||||
|
||||
Satori was created and developed by a team that was largely kept private for over two months now. This team includes [u/catto_del_fatto](https://www.reddit.com/u/catto_del_fatto/), [u/grungromp](https://www.reddit.com/u/grungromp/), and [u/Captain-Fan](https://www.reddit.com/u/Captain-Fan/). I have personally worked with them since before the [r/Superstonk](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/) migration from [r/GME](https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/), and can say they have become some of my most trusted friends.
|
||||
|
||||
[u/catto_del_fatto](https://www.reddit.com/u/catto_del_fatto/) was also added awhile back as a mod to incorporate moderator-level data into the information-gathering aspects of Satori, thus allowing the mod team to talk to him directly and help provide shill data for the system. Catto has officially accepted a full-time mod role with general moderator permissions, and we are looking forward to continuing this project and fostering a deeper relationship between the Satori team and the moderator team.
|
||||
|
||||
TL;DR: [r/Superstonk](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/) has an intelligence division.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/nechp7j0dk271.jpg?width=2400&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=bd6ba796a7eef2dc785b89595ae5bdf855969ffd)
|
||||
|
||||
Asta la vista, baby.
|
||||
|
||||
The Plan
|
||||
|
||||
- Increase karma and age filters
|
||||
|
||||
- Posts : 60 days / 500 karma ---> 120 days / 2000 karma
|
||||
|
||||
- Accounts will need have been created earlier than February 1, 2021
|
||||
|
||||
- Comments: 30 days / 250 karma ---> 60 days / 500 karma
|
||||
|
||||
- Accounts will need to have been created earlier than April 1, 2021
|
||||
|
||||
- Note: Superstonk Migration was April 4, 2021
|
||||
|
||||
- These limits will need to scale as time progresses; until the MOASS; while we hone and implement this program for total effectiveness.
|
||||
|
||||
- These limits will be implemented on June 1, 2021 sometime throughout the day.
|
||||
|
||||
- Activate *Satori*
|
||||
|
||||
- The immediate goal of Satori is to make sure that true apes are not locked out due to the increased restrictions. However, bans are an automated capability.
|
||||
|
||||
- "Mod-bots" will be added to the mod team and given approve and ban permissions, and then programmed to automate the approval or ban process via a generated list of users.
|
||||
|
||||
- [u/Satori-Blue-Shell](https://www.reddit.com/u/Satori-Blue-Shell/) is currently the only mod-bot added and is actively Approving members
|
||||
|
||||
- APPROVALS - All users who were created after the Blip (end of January) and are not on the high risk list of users, with be added to the Approved Users in waves. By being added as Approved Users, they will bypass the karma and age filters. This will actively allow MORE true apes to participate in the sub.
|
||||
|
||||
- BANS - Mods will receive spreadsheets of high risk users, where they can approve or deny users, and then these lists will be implemented for automated implementation.
|
||||
|
||||
- Mods will officially now be allowed to Approve users they trust in addition to Satori
|
||||
|
||||
- Previously, we did not allow approving users because we suspected some foul play associated with that. Now, however, due to the sheer volume of approvals, we feel confident that we can add this to our arsenal of methods to protect apes in [r/Superstonk](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/).
|
||||
|
||||
- Minimize Fallout
|
||||
|
||||
- This plan prioritizes the positive aspects of Satori over the negative, and allows mod oversight on the bans process. Halting Satori is as simple as removing permissions from the mod-bot.
|
||||
|
||||
- Many of you who couldn't post due to age and karma limits, will now will be able to, once added to the Approved Users list. If you are not added, please be patient, as we are currently approving in waves.
|
||||
|
||||
- This will incentivize good behavior, because apes will not want to lose their approved status, or will want to earn it in the first place. Overall, we are essentially making it harder to post and comment on Superstonk, and then rewarding loyal apes with approvals that allow them to post or comment without any restrictions.
|
||||
|
||||
- Therefore, I am convinced this will make [r/Superstonk](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/) a better experience for true apes, while making it a nightmare for the imposters and shills.
|
||||
|
||||
*Please note that Satori does not have access to private chats, discords, or other private aspects of your account and it is currently limited to Reddit. We only scan publicly available content as well as what can be seen from a moderator perspective, which primarily includes removed posts and comments. We respect your privacy, and are merely utilizing the same levels of intel used against us to even the playing field.*
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/broy2hwpck271.jpg?width=750&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=a4e50c469e37c5bb980c02927d5ed0bb10f0b761)
|
||||
|
||||
Shillpocalypse (by u/grungromp)
|
||||
|
||||
With two new admin-level mods to help keep oversight, and with such an incredible software creation by the Satori team, we are poised to not only defend against the constant FUD, shills, and MOASS popularity, but also to remain a secure and reliable source of knowledge sharing - forever.
|
||||
|
||||
I don't want to say we will never end up like [r/wallstreetbets](https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/) ... but we'll never end up like [r/wallstreetbets](https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/). Satori is the first of many projects that utilize modern technology to advance our capabilities as a subreddit. I am excited for some of the other projects already in the pipeline. Stay tuned - this is definitely as exciting as it sounds.
|
||||
|
||||
Latest News You May Have Missed
|
||||
|
||||
- [Voting Information](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nlpz4h/your_votes_are_important_the_time_to_vote_is_now/) - You can VOTE with your GameStop shares for the upcoming shareholder meeting on June 9th. The final deadline to vote is June 8th.
|
||||
|
||||
- [Official AMA Question Thread](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/np7tmd/official_ama_question_thread_for_lucy_komisar_and/) for Lucy Komisar and Wes Christian - Wednesday June 2, 2021 at 4:30 PM Eastern
|
||||
|
||||
- New Awards:
|
||||
|
||||
- [The Superstonk Award](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nlz1ph/the_superstonk_award/) - Can be gifted by any member for 500 coins (sub receives 100 coins)
|
||||
|
||||
- Moderator Award: [Not-A-Cat Golden Bananya Award](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/noex1z/announcement_new_community_moderator_award/) - Can be gifted only by moderators for 1800 sub bank coins, which gives the recipient Premium (700 coins per month, plus perks.
|
||||
|
||||
To the Moon!
|
||||
|
||||
I hope you all had a great weekend and a great Memorial Day holiday. Let's pack our bananas and buckle up, because this rocket is starting to smell a LOT like rocket fuel. I still haven't sold a single share of $GME, and I plan to HODL until Andromeda.
|
||||
|
||||
Let's also remember to be kind to each other. Ape not fight ape. Apes together strong!
|
||||
|
||||
We're almost there. Let's go 🚀🚀🚀
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/za5vhcbupk271.jpg?width=3840&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=a34e38a843f573c5b4ec4b5d615567fa7b92f81b)
|
||||
|
||||
Art by YoungbloodAA
|
||||
|
||||
TL;DR: [u/pinkcatsonacid](https://www.reddit.com/u/pinkcatsonacid/) and [u/Bye_Triangle](https://www.reddit.com/u/Bye_Triangle/) are now Full Permissions mods. Karma and Age limits are going way up, but basically Shillnet is approving users in periodic waves based on behavior over the past few months. Approved users bypass karma/age limits entirely. Sub is secured for MOASS. Pack your not-a-cat bananyas.
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
## Satori FAQs
|
||||
Howdy apes! [u/Bradduck_Flyntmoore](https://www.reddit.com/u/Bradduck_Flyntmoore/) here! As the Ape-bassador, it brings me real joy to see how excited everyape is about this. I can assure you, the mod team is equally excited. This new endeavor has a lot of potential, and I cannot wait to see it in action. That being said, the point of this sticky comment is to answer some of the questions (paraphrased) apes are having about Satori. I will be updating this sticky comment as I find more questions to answer. 🙏
|
||||
|
||||
E: spacing; potnetial->potential
|
||||
|
||||
Q: I haven't been approved yet, does that make me a shill?
|
||||
|
||||
A: No, ape, it does not. Satori is approving apes in waves, and likely has not gotten to you yet. Just hodl on and all will be well.
|
||||
|
||||
Q: What if the new bot overlords get carried away?
|
||||
|
||||
A: I also fear potential technological overlords, fellow ape! Because of this, I asked the dev team for a LOT of clarifications on function, method, and execution. Obviously I can't say too much, but please have my assurance that the mod team is able to turn it off any time. Additionally, mods are able to prompt it to do things, or prevent it from doing things, or even undo things it has done. Again, anytime mods feel it is required.
|
||||
|
||||
Q: How long will it take Satori to get through the waves of approvals?
|
||||
|
||||
A: Sorry, fellow ape, you'll just have to be patient. Mods played this one close to the vest for a reason, and to give away extra info now would be counter-productive.
|
||||
|
||||
E: > -> ?
|
||||
|
||||
Q: Does Satori work retroactively or will it just look at the content on Superstonk moving forward?
|
||||
|
||||
A: Yes. Both. Satori looks at ALL publicly available posts and comments on the sub.
|
||||
|
||||
Q: How does approval work? Do I need to do anything?
|
||||
|
||||
A: Just sit back and relax. Approval will come automatically; no action is required.
|
||||
|
||||
Q: Why was Satori approved without unanimous approval from the mods?
|
||||
|
||||
A: This is a fair and honest question, and I believe apes deserve to know the answer. The final vote tally was 10 for; 0 against; 2 abstain. Unfortunately, sometimes IRL events prevent mods from voting (decisions need to be made in a timely manner, after all), hence why not all mod votes are accounted for.
|
||||
|
||||
Q: What if my karma/age requirements are already high enough, do I still need to be approved? What if I do not receive approval, does that mean I get banned?
|
||||
|
||||
A: The approval process is to allow apes without the karma/age requirements the ability to participate in the sub. If you already have the required age/karma, AND if you do not get banned, there is nothing to fret over. Just carry on like Satori isn't even there.
|
||||
|
||||
Q: What sort of transparency exists between mods for how Satori is used?
|
||||
|
||||
A: All mods have access to the equivalent of a mod log for Satori. We can all see what actions it, and each other, take.
|
||||
|
||||
Q: Will Satori continue monitoring users after they have been approved?
|
||||
|
||||
A: Yes. Yes it will.
|
||||
|
||||
Q: If Satori is going to be banning users, should we expect to see a drop in membership?
|
||||
|
||||
A: This is entirely plausible, though the number of bans would have to exceed the number of new apes coming in daily. Don't be surprised if there is a dip, but also don't be surprised if there is not.
|
||||
|
||||
Q: Can mods release info on the actions taken by Satori, like how many users were approved, how many users were banned, how many posts were deemed FUD-y, etc.?
|
||||
|
||||
A: ~~I'm honestly not sure, but as I have mentioned in the comments, I'll speak with the dev and mod teams tomorrow and see if this is possible without spoiling the magic. Stay tuned~~. The dev team is meeting next Tuesday to review their first week of results. I won't have any additional info regarding this question until then. Stay tuned.
|
||||
|
||||
Q: Is the requirement age AND karma, or is the requirement age OR karma (whichever is greater)?
|
||||
|
||||
A: ~~I'm honestly not sure. I've never had an issue with either of those factors, personally, so I never bothered to look into it. I'll update this answer once I find out from one of the more experienced mods~~. This is an AND scenario. Apes must have the necessary age AND karma requirements to comment/post. Lacking either will result in automod action unless the ape has been approved by Satori already.
|
||||
|
||||
Q: How do I know if I am approved?
|
||||
|
||||
A: Apes will receive a notification saying as much.
|
49
00-Getting-Started/2021-06-04-Ape-Security-Protocols.md
Normal file
49
00-Getting-Started/2021-06-04-Ape-Security-Protocols.md
Normal file
@ -0,0 +1,49 @@
|
||||
Ape Security Protocols
|
||||
======================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/redchessqueen99](https://www.reddit.com/user/redchessqueen99/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nsgv3d/ape_security_protocols/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
|
||||
[🙌💎 Red Seal of Stonkiness 💎🙌](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22%F0%9F%99%8C%F0%9F%92%8E%20Red%20Seal%20of%20Stonkiness%20%F0%9F%92%8E%F0%9F%99%8C%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||
It has come to my attention that several members have been the targets of hacking attempts. If you notice edited or deleted posts on your account, or cannot login, this is likely a sign that you have been the victim of a dastardly shillfiltrator.
|
||||
|
||||
This is possible due to someone logging into your account if it has a weak password, having clicked mysterious links, or other creative methods utilized by bad actors. Therefore, I am writing some quick security tips for moving forward.
|
||||
|
||||
[010101ook1010011ookook](https://preview.redd.it/pcpakt2xmb371.png?width=640&format=png&auto=webp&s=02d9efc0b74e6037456174a9bb2401110736f822)
|
||||
|
||||
Here are some tips for keeping your account secure:
|
||||
|
||||
1. Use an email or Google/Apple account that does not match your username. Your username is public, so remember that anyone can enter it just like you, or add ["@gmail.com](mailto:%22@gmail.com)/@appe.com" and either try to guess your password, or use a program to make attempts.
|
||||
|
||||
2. [Enable TFA / 2FA (Two Factor Authentication)](https://www.reddit.com/r/announcements/comments/7spq3s/protect_your_account_with_twofactor_authentication/) with your reddit/Google/Apple account; this will require you to link your account to an email, phone number, or authenticator app, and any logins will require typing in a text/email/authenticator code to login. If someone tries to use this, you will receive the notification and become aware of the attempt immediately.
|
||||
|
||||
3. Be very careful with messages received via reddit messages, chats, and especially links sent to you. These can be very dangerous as they can take you to fake sites or track your IP address. We also know that, because bad actors cannot post or comment, they switch to chats/messages, which we cannot track or moderate. You should consider any private message to be potentially suspect moving forward.
|
||||
|
||||
4. Use a [VPN service](https://www.pcmag.com/picks/the-best-vpn-services) (ProtonVPN / NordVPN / others, please do your research on best option); VPN's basically turn your internet connection from YOU---REDDIT into YOU---VPN---REDDIT, so any attempts to track you are filtered through a middleman server. The best VPNs are available for a modest monthly or annual cost; you can also use the browser Tor for a crowd-shared VPN of sorts.
|
||||
|
||||
5. Finally, make sure your password is complicated enough so that hacker programs cannot easily crack them. For example, do not use "password123" or even "ilikethestock" but rather "MoNkE2021StOnKsGoUp4p3$t063th3r$tr0n6" - make them work for it. Every second we waste is a second we gain.
|
||||
|
||||
6. If all else fails, and you find yourself a victim of hacking, you will need to resolve through reddit. You can [recover a username](https://www.reddit.com/username) or [get more information about security](https://reddithelp.com/hc/en-us/sections/360008917491-Account-Security), but also you can [contact reddit admins for assistance](https://www.reddit.com/contact/).
|
||||
|
||||
Why would they target us?
|
||||
|
||||
Does this really need an answer? We are exposing their dirty laundry for the world to see. Therefore, it is cost-effective for them to spend money on professionals to try and destabilize the sub. Additionally, many trolls and bad actors exist on reddit who would love to see us break apart and fall. Our Approved Users list can also be discovered and they may be targeting our Satori-sanctioned apes in an attempt to undermine its use.
|
||||
|
||||
Therefore, we all need to be extra careful, especially with the MOASS impending. I would not forgive myself if I was lazy in regards to keeping you all informed and protected. As mods, we truly understand the importance of your safety and protection, and this is why we are working diligently to keep your educated on the dangers and to implement new technology in an effort to counter their attacks.
|
||||
|
||||
Please leave comments if I missed anything and I will try to make sure I see it and update this post.
|
||||
|
||||
Let's make sure the rocket isn't sabotaged. *Moon soon.*
|
||||
|
||||
[o7 fly safe, fellow apes](https://i.redd.it/lmov6v9mmb371.gif)
|
||||
|
||||
Edit: [u/FordicusMaximus](https://www.reddit.com/u/FordicusMaximus/) shared [this link](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nojpde/best_security_practices_for_protecting_self_and/)for additional security options.
|
||||
|
||||
Edit 2: [u/Gremayre](https://www.reddit.com/u/Gremayre/) provided [a comic on how password strength works](https://xkcd.com/936/).
|
||||
|
||||
Edit 3: [u/xfan10](https://www.reddit.com/u/xfan10/) shared this: Password managers should be mentioned like 1Password. You can use the password generator built inside of it. Can go up to 100 characters randomized. No need to remember it. To take it to the next level, Reddit supports Yubico/Yubikey which means you have to physically be next to the USB key to log in via finger touch. So people trying to login elsewhere will not work even if your password is 'password123'
|
@ -0,0 +1,38 @@
|
||||
🖍 Explain w/ Crayons Series: Fundamentals of $GME! Why $GME Should Be Trading Higher
|
||||
=====================================================================================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/AaronJamesArq](https://www.reddit.com/user/AaronJamesArq/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nkouqs/explain_w_crayons_series_fundamentals_of_gme_why/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
[Education 👨🏫 | Data 🔢](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22Education%20%F0%9F%91%A8%E2%80%8D%F0%9F%8F%AB%20%7C%20Data%20%F0%9F%94%A2%22&restrict_sr=1)
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||||

|
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|
||||

|
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|
||||

|
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|
||||

|
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|
||||
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||||

|
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||||

|
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|
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|
||||
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||||

|
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|
||||
|
||||
|
||||
|
||||
|
||||
|
@ -0,0 +1,5 @@
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [Superstonk](https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCI4EET9NJPWxUuXGlG6fxPA) | [YouTube](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wuPizlDY0Ys&t=22s) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
@ -0,0 +1,298 @@
|
||||
POST AMA DD- Lucy Komisar AMA powerpoint and partial script
|
||||
===========================================================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/pinkcatsonacid](https://www.reddit.com/user/pinkcatsonacid/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nke7sp/post_ama_dd_lucy_komisar_ama_powerpoint_and/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
[Education 👨🏫 | Data 🔢](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22Education%20%F0%9F%91%A8%E2%80%8D%F0%9F%8F%AB%20%7C%20Data%20%F0%9F%94%A2%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||
Many of you noticed I made a snazzy powerpoint to use during the Lucy K AMA today, but didn't get to use it due to technical difficulties. So even though it's not the same, here is the bulk of what was intended for the interview, including Lucy's written script. Knowledge is Power! 💪
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/g8nivrt6l6171.jpg?width=677&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=60102104cecd6de43dfc9d914a4525be62e1f80b)
|
||||
|
||||
🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀
|
||||
|
||||
Lucy Komisar AMA Part 2 [(Link here)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wuPizlDY0Ys&t=22s)
|
||||
|
||||
Topic of Discussion- The SEC
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/p98qxh2476171.jpg?width=180&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=463cc9d081a8fa5a35b8828dd41b6121dd2737ec)
|
||||
|
||||
Securities and Exchange Commission
|
||||
|
||||
THE SEC for Superstonk- Script By Lucy Komisar
|
||||
|
||||
*When plunder becomes a way of life for a group of men in a society, over the course of time they create for themselves a legal system that authorizes it and a moral code that glorifies it."* --- Frédéric Bastiat, 19th century French Economist
|
||||
|
||||
How the SEC was created
|
||||
|
||||
One reason for the stock market collapses in 1929 was watering stock. A meme went "he who sells what isn't his'n must pay it back or go to prison." Traders would print up counterfeit stock certificates. Sound familiar. Naked short selling. The crash that started the depression.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/l346v5i456171.jpg?width=470&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=dbf1ac2b34080b60690ed448ed917fbce742f990)
|
||||
|
||||
Ferdinand Pecora
|
||||
|
||||
1932 Ferdinand Pecora was an immigrant working class kid from Sicily who put himself through New York Law School. He was hired in 1932 by the Senate Banking Committee to investigate the causes of the crash, to do a whitewash, but he didn't get the memo. His hearings exposed such practices as pools to support bank stock prices. Such as Let's all coordinate trades to pump up the stock. Sound familiar? GameStop? National City Bank (now Citibank) had hidden bad loans by packaging them into securities and selling them off to unwary investors. Sound familiar? Mortgage-backed securities that tanked? And that the bank sellers knew would tank?
|
||||
|
||||
The findings of the Pecora Commission exposing corruption of the financial industry let to public support for regulation, -- it took really dirty stuff to move the pubic -which would be the Glass--Steagall Banking Act of 1933, the Securities Act of 1933, and the Securities Exchange Act of 1934. That last set up the SEC.
|
||||
|
||||
Franklin Roosevelt appointed Joseph Kennedy (father of Jack and Robert) SEC chair. He had built the family fortune on financial manipulation, but Roosevelt thought he knew where the bodies were buried, who the miscreants. So the SEC cleaned up the Wall Street stables for five years. Then Kennedy's buddies of the financial oligarchy took charge again, in early regulatory capture.
|
||||
|
||||
Pecora wrote a memoir, Wall Street Under Oath. He said: "Bitterly hostile was Wall Street to the enactment of the regulatory legislation." What, the thieves don't want rule of law? About disclosure rules, he said that "Had there been full disclosure of what was being done in furtherance of these schemes, they could not long have survived the fierce light of publicity and criticism. Legal chicanery and pitch darkness were the banker's stoutest allies." Think about who are their allies today.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/kulo5kk756171.jpg?width=354&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=89e834a1f13f04b2d889fdc66e9156d0bab67db1)
|
||||
|
||||
Irving Pollack- Father of the SEC Division of Enforcement
|
||||
|
||||
1985 Irving Pollack
|
||||
|
||||
Fast forward about half a century. With the support of friends in Congress, Wall Street has neutered the securities acts by assuring the SEC would not enforce them. It made sure its foxes were guarding the henhouse. But the corruption was sometimes inconvenient. In 1985, the National Association of Securities Dealers, now FINRA, which represents the brokers, hired Irving Pollack, a former SEC commissioner who was honest, to look at short selling. Among his report's proposals: reporting of short interest -- the amount of short sales not yet covered -- should be public and perhaps more frequent. A borrowing for delivery in broker-dealer transactions should be required. A mandatory buy-in should be adopted for a delivery after a reasonable period when there has been a fail. That means the broker for the buyer who hasn't gotten the shares can buy them on the market and charge the short seller's broker. There should be surveillance of large short-interest positions, shorts not yet covered.
|
||||
|
||||
Did the SEC adopt these proposals with enthusiasm? Obviously not. Short interest is not reported frequently. Broker dealers "locate" instead of borrow or they use counterfeit shares. There's no buy-in. Buy-ins were allowed but not required. And Leslie Boni, an academic who in 2004 did a paper for the SEC on buy-ins said they were rare. But requiring buy-ins would make the stock go up, the shorts lose money.
|
||||
|
||||
And there was no surveillance of large short-interest positions.
|
||||
|
||||
In fact, corruption would be increased thanks to friends of Wall Street president Bill Clinton and his collaborator Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin (formerly of Citibank) who in 1999, killed the Glass-Steagall Act which had separated investment banking from retail banking. Retail banks till then could not use depositors' funds for risky investments. Only 10% of their income could come from selling securities.
|
||||
|
||||
That sets the stage for the last few decades.
|
||||
|
||||
2004 RegSHO set up to fail
|
||||
|
||||
The SEC, battered with complaints, in July 2004 promulgated Reg SHO, SHO for short selling. The hedge funds and big brokers who had been or would be shown to be illegally shorting all lobbied against it. It was a tepid reform of short selling that was Swiss-cheesed with loopholes. Think of Al Capone writing the tax laws. (On the other hand, his crooked progeny do write the tax laws!) Reg SHO would be implemented in 2005
|
||||
|
||||
The SEC knocked out a proposal for penalties for failing to deliver.
|
||||
|
||||
And it wrote two giant exceptions into Reg SHO. Ex-clearing and market makers.
|
||||
|
||||
The rule didn't apply to ex-clearing, which means clearing outside the DTCC, The Depository Trust Clearing Corporation, the national stock clearing company. (Yes, it's a private company owned by the broker dealers) It applied only to trades going through a registered clearing agency, i.e. what got sent through the DTCC. It said ex-clearing was "rare."
|
||||
|
||||
Sales that avoided clearing agencies could fail -- not be delivered -- without buyers' brokers reporting the fails to the DTCC or buying in, requiring the short sellers broker to buy shares on the market and deliver them. To protect short sellers and avoid Reg SHO, dealers went ex-clearing. They either cleared internally or with a cooperating broker-dealer or they went through dark pools. They were private exchanges set up by the big prime brokers and banks.
|
||||
|
||||
The major perpetrators are the large banks, doing it for large clients, hedge funds, or their own accounts. If they can do the transaction privately [ex-clearing], RegSHO doesn't apply. Now about 40% of trades go through dark pools. *If a trade failed ex-clearing, it didn't fail at the DTCC!*
|
||||
|
||||
Reg SHO also didn't apply to derivatives, the financial casino bets acknowledged as a prime cause of the current economic crisis and which also did not trade through a clearing house.
|
||||
|
||||
Even stocks that cleared through the DTCC were not always covered. The brokers got a "grandfather clause" that allowed existing fails to continue! Because we know that brokers simply rolled them over. And brokers didn't have to close out the shares they had sold short before the stock went on the Threshold List which includes shares that for five consecutive settlement days had fails to deliver of 10,000 shares or more at a clearing agency and where the level of fails was equal to at least one-half of one percent of the issuer's outstanding shares.
|
||||
|
||||
Then brokers were subject to mandatory covering only on the fifth day. Then the broker-dealer had 13 days to deliver the shares to the buyer or lender, and if it failed to do so, it could not trade that stock until it did. But the SEC knew, because staff wrote a paper on it, how options conversions allowed brokers to put off fail dates forever.
|
||||
|
||||
MARKET MAKERS
|
||||
|
||||
RegSHO allowed an options market maker exception, called after the person who designed and pushed for it: the Madoff Exception! (Did I say the crooks wrote the rules?)
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/ndifb6fvk6171.png?width=1482&format=png&auto=webp&s=4b96285ed2e17c6fa057802f34861c4c532400c0)
|
||||
|
||||
Bernie Madoff, who died in prison in Apr 2021
|
||||
|
||||
In prison in 2012 Madoff told Forbes journalist Diana Henriques: "I fell into my crime of staying Naked Short. The fact that the prosecutor and Trustee seemed clueless of this is why my frustration is so great." Clueless, or complicit? You just don't go there.
|
||||
|
||||
The SEC in 2007 eliminated Uptick Rule that requires short sales to be conducted at a higher price than the previous trade. Not helpful if the purpose is to batter down the stock price. It was never enforced.
|
||||
|
||||
2008 Stock lending and taking care of the banks
|
||||
|
||||
According to the SEC Office of Economic Analysis (2008) Reg SHO in effect since 2005 had not reduced outstanding fails. Many stocks remained on the SEC Regulation SHO Threshold List for hundreds of trading days
|
||||
|
||||
For years, the SEC claimed naked short selling and fails to deliver were not a problem. Once things began to go sour in 2008, the first thing the SEC did was ban naked short selling in 17 financial stocks plus Fannie and Freddie. It was ironic, since the big banks/brokers had been carrying out the scam on others. Hoist on their own petard.
|
||||
|
||||
And they chose the solution that people battling naked short selling had advocated for years. A July 2008 order said no traders could make trades involving those institutions unless they had pre-borrowed the security or otherwise had it available in their inventory. They had to deliver the security on the settlement date. Borrow shares before you sell them short. Stop the counterfeiting. All the regs that came out were because naked shorting, the counterfeiting of shares, was undermining banks. The SEC went from nothing is happening till the fall of 2008 that the market coming apart because of naked shorting. They chose the solution that people battling naked short selling had advocated for years. Borrow shares before you sell them short. Stop the counterfeiting.
|
||||
|
||||
The SEC said it was investigating the collapse of Bear Stearns. It had been massively naked shorted. The SEC didn't come up with anything.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/jca68d5g56171.jpg?width=330&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=741e78b0f0b0ac9ab85b0f27f872316eabbca976)
|
||||
|
||||
Ted Kaufman- former US Senator, Delaware
|
||||
|
||||
2009 Kaufman and the hard locate
|
||||
|
||||
A little-known backstory involved former Delaware Senator Ted Kaufman who ran Biden's post-election transition team. It shows how big stock market players and the institutions they control have blocked attempts to deal with naked short selling. Kaufman was Biden's longtime chief of staff, and was named to the Senate seat vacated by his boss when Biden became Barack Obama's vice president.
|
||||
|
||||
After the 2008 market meltdown that included abusive naked short selling of Bear Stearns and Lehman Brothers, Kaufman, a Democrat, and Georgia senator Johnny Isakson, a Republican, introduced legislation that directed the SEC to write regulations to end the practice. They determined that the SEC's current regulations were unenforceable. Hedge funds could spread rumors, do massive shorts without locating stocks, and deliver after the prices dropped.
|
||||
|
||||
In July 2009, Kaufman and six colleagues from both parties wrote to the SEC, proposing a "hard locate" plan that would ban all short sales unless the executing broker first obtained a unique identification number for the shares, perhaps through an automated centralized system. This would prevent multiple short sales on the basis of a single share.
|
||||
|
||||
According to Jeff Connaughton, then Kaufman's chief of staff, months before the letter, "the DTCC (the national stock clearing agency) had gone to the SEC with a proposed solution to naked short selling that looked like Kaufman's solution, with the DTCC creating a centralized database that would prevent the same shares from being used for multiple short sales.
|
||||
|
||||
The DTCC told Connaughton, 'We got pulled back.' They meant, he said, by their board, by the Wall Street powers-that-be." Because in the case of the DTCC as well as the SEC, the fox is guarding the henhouse.
|
||||
|
||||
In 2009 staffers of the Senators met with the SEC's Enforcement Division to find out the status of its investigation into the naked short selling of Bear Stearns and Lehman stock. SEC lawyers told them they'd have to be patient and that the investigation would take at least another year. It never happened.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/m6a9h2jl56171.png?width=263&format=png&auto=webp&s=4074499e1301f9ad2712d1a806d20a0383873fa2)
|
||||
|
||||
Ted Kaufman as long time advisor to the current President
|
||||
|
||||
2010 Kaufman continued to try to fight naked short selling in the Dodd-Frank debate. SEC had been ordered by the Dodd-Frank law of 2010 11 years ago to require more transparency in short selling and stock lending. It has ignored it.
|
||||
|
||||
There were some alleged improvements made that year, 2008.
|
||||
|
||||
The market makers exemption was eliminated, because the SEC said substantial levels of fails had continued in Threshold securities, and a significant number were the result of market maker exceptions. But they still had 6 days to settle their trades. So you have market makers failing and rolling their shares over every 5 ½ days.
|
||||
|
||||
The grandfather provision on Threshold securities was eliminated. Unless its position in Threshold securities was closed, a broker-dealer couldn't effect further shorts in them without borrowing or arranging to borrow the securities. Don't worry, they finessed that.
|
||||
|
||||
The amendments addressed fake borrows. It said that where a broker-dealer entered into an arrangement with another party to purchase or borrow securities, and the broker-dealer knew or has reason to know that the other party would not deliver securities in settlement of the transaction, the purchase or borrow would not be *"bona fide."*
|
||||
|
||||
It repeated that: "The NSCC - clears and settles the majority of equity securities trades conducted on the exchanges and in the over-the-counter market."
|
||||
|
||||
So the rules still didn't apply to ex-clearing and dark pools. So the ex-clearing route to naked shorts was protected. fails could be concealed at the start by ex-by not reporting them to the NSCC, the National Securities Clearing Corporation.
|
||||
|
||||
In fact, the dealers could use ex-clearing to opt out of fails from trades through the exchanges. They could take them onto their own books and deal with the fails as they chose to, meaning do nothing, let the fails sit*.*
|
||||
|
||||
And protecting the interests of the big banks/brokerages, the SEC did not include a hard locate requirement in its amendments to Reg SHO.
|
||||
|
||||
But the SEC occasionally takes enforcement actions that go after low-hanging fruit, ie don't bother anyone significant or don't order more than minor penalties, the cost of doing business.
|
||||
|
||||
2003 Sedona/Badians
|
||||
|
||||
The Sedona case, where the Badian brothers ran a death spiral financing scheme that in 2001 involved providing a loan that would be repaid in shares. And then it did a massive shorting attack that knocked down the price of the shares from $6 to 20cents. the SEC in February 2003 filed a complaint against Thomas Badian and his company, Rhino, for fraud and market manipulation of Sedona shares. Badian and Rhino immediately settled with the SEC for a $1-million fine without admitting or denying guilt. The $1 mil was a pittance, cost of doing business.
|
||||
|
||||
In 2006, the SEC filed a civil suit against Andreas Badian, four officials of Pond Equities and a trader at Refco, all involved directly in the naked shorting, but not against Ladenburg, the high-profile broker-dealer that facilitated the deals and collaborators.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/fqrt6qam66171.jpg?width=960&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=f91e36651dc8f18ba0e83a6e77d3bc079b718f3c)
|
||||
|
||||
2005 Eagletech
|
||||
|
||||
Eagletech, which had an invention, new at the time, to push phone calls to other devices. letting people to usee a single phone number that followed them from phone to phone. He became a target of a group of death spiral financing criminals working with Salomon Smith Barney in New York five Salomon officers and a group of investors offering to buy convertible preferred shares from Eagletech for up to $6 million
|
||||
|
||||
They did a pump up and then naked shorting so the stock dropped from $14 to 75 cents, reducing the market value by $113 ml. The stock went to 2 cents. The FBI was investigating. They busted 17 members of organized crime, including the crooks that ran the scheme against Eagletech.
|
||||
|
||||
SEC filed suit against Serubo, Labella and organized crime collaborators who ran the corrupt operation that got control of stock of Eagletech. It said they generated in excess of $12.7 million from the sale of Eagletech stock. Members of his Salomon Smith Barney financing team and their options market-makers in Chicago were selling shares and then failing to deliver.
|
||||
|
||||
Serubo, Labella and organized crime collaborators would be banned from penny stock trading and pay back the ill-gotten gains and fines. I couldn't find any penalties against the Salomon Smith Barney team or their options market maker collaborators.
|
||||
|
||||
Then the SEC filed suit against the victim, Eagletech, to deregister its shares because it couldn't afford several hundred thousand dollars to file audited financial reports. The delisting is like a bankruptcy, all investors are wiped out and the naked shorters never have to cover. The SEC finished what the mob started, it killed the company.
|
||||
|
||||
2007 Goldman
|
||||
|
||||
From at least March 2000 to May 2002, that's more than 2 years, certain customers of Goldman Clearing used the firm's direct market access, automated trading system to unlawfully sell securities short in advance of follow-on and secondary offerings when they could get the shares cheaper.
|
||||
|
||||
Although they were selling the offered securities short, used Goldman Clearing's direct market access, automated trading platform, the REDI System, preparing their own orders to sell on computer terminals and falsely marked them "long." The orders were routed directly to the New York Stock Exchange and other markets for execution.
|
||||
|
||||
Goldman Clearing's own records contained information that Customers were selling securities short and that they were misrepresenting their "short" sales as "long". Goldman Clearing's records showed that the customers were repeatedly failing to deliver to Goldman Clearing the securities that they purported to sell long.
|
||||
|
||||
So for two years of allowing shorts to be marked longs, Goldman had to pay civil money penalty of -- wait for it -- $1 million
|
||||
|
||||
2012 SEC v OptionsXpress
|
||||
|
||||
OptionsXpress, a wholly-owned subsidiary of Charles Schwab repeatedly engaged in sham transactions, known as "resets," designed to give the appearance of having purchased shares to close-out an open failure-to-deliver position while in fact not doing so.
|
||||
|
||||
OptionsXpress had its customers buying shares and simultaneously selling call options that were the equivalent of selling shares short. The purchase of shares created the illusion that the firm had covered the short; however, the shares were never actually delivered to the buyers because on the same day, calls were exercised, effectively reselling the shares. The purpose was to perpetuate an open short position.
|
||||
|
||||
In 2009, the six optionsXpress customer accounts bought $5.7 billion worth of securities and sold short approximately $4 billion of options. They did this to a couple of dozen companies. In January 2010, the customers who did the scam accounted for 48% of the daily trading volume in Sears. In the end OptionsXpress had to pay $4 million. Cost of doing business.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/si49uknr56171.jpg?width=206&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=56bf1d0512b8fdfc9e42c662d506fd8bc85c821f)
|
||||
|
||||
Gary Aguirre- Former Investigator for SEC & Whistleblower
|
||||
|
||||
The insiders tell the SEC corruption
|
||||
|
||||
The story of Gary Aguirre says it all
|
||||
|
||||
As a student at Georgetown Law School, Aguirre got a prize from the SEC for paper on Wall Street corruption as detailed in the Pecora hearings that led to passage of the Securities Act of 1933. So we know where he stands. In September 2004, he started as a senior counsel at the SEC Division of Enforcement. He said, "I understood what SEC was supposed to be doing: keep Wall Street from running amok. The SEC in July had promulgated Reg SHO, which it said would stop abusive naked short selling. He recalled, "The first thing I noticed is there seemed to be a deference to the large law firms who represented Wall Street players. And there were a lot of people there not at the same skill set level as the attorneys representing some of the players from Wall Street.
|
||||
|
||||
Aguirre was assigned to an investigation that implicated a powerful Wall Street insider. John Mack had been head of the hedge fund Pequot Capital Management. The suspicion was that Mack had tipped Pequot's then CEO, Arthur Samberg, of General Electric's pending acquisition of Heller Financial. Mack was the only suspect. Without that investigation, the SEC would never be able to even consider the filing of insider trading charges against Mack, Samberg, Pequot or anyone else arising out of Pequot's trading in GE and Heller
|
||||
|
||||
Aguirre refused to stop his investigation; Senior officials within the SEC's Division of Enforcement blocked an SEC subpoena seeking Mack's testimony and records in the investigation. Aguirre had contacted the Office of Special Counsel to discuss the filing of a complaint about the SEC's protection of Mack. Three days later, while on vacation, Aguirre was abruptly fired without warning on September 1, 2005, he was fired by phone.
|
||||
|
||||
An SEC official told him it would be very difficult to take Mack's testimony because of his political influence. He told him that Mack was "an industry captain," that he had powerful contacts . . . , that Mary Jo White could contact a number of powerful individuals, any of whom could call Linda about the examination. Mary Jo White was a lawyer at a Wall Street firm, Linda was Linda Thomsen, the head of enforcement. Aguirre confirmed the conversation in two e-mails to the official the next morning. The first email referenced Ferdinand Pecora.
|
||||
|
||||
Aguirre gave key papers to Charles Grassley on the Senate Finance Committee. And to the Judiciary Cmte. There were hearings in 2006.
|
||||
|
||||
He told Congress that an SEC official told him it would be very difficult to take Mack's testimony because of his political influence. The official told him Mack was "an industry captain," that he had powerful contacts . . . , that Mary Jo White could contact a number of powerful individuals, any of whom could call Linda about the examination. Mary Jo White was a lawyer at a Wall Street firm, Linda Thomsen was head of enforcement.
|
||||
|
||||
He said the SEC "favor" to Mack cleared the way for his return on June 30, 2005, as Morgan Stanley's CEO with no danger of an SEC lawsuit for insider trading. Mary Jo White would become chair of the SEC 2013 to 2017, appointed by Wall Street's favorite guy, Barak Obama, who apparently didn't know the Aguirre story.
|
||||
|
||||
Later David Kotz, the SEC's inspector general, said he had found evidence that "raised serious questions about the impartiality and fairness" of the SEC's investigation of possible insider trading at the Pequot Capital Management hedge fund.
|
||||
|
||||
Kotz also condemned what he called the "common practice" of giving outside lawyers' clients access to high-level SEC officials when they had complaints about front-line investigators. Kotz made numerous recommendations for reform, which the SEC ignored.
|
||||
|
||||
Aguirre sued the SEC and won ¾ of million $ in back pay and damages.
|
||||
|
||||
Mack, after being CEO Morgan Stanley, became CEO of Credit Suisse, then chair of Morgan Stanley and now is senior advisor to the global investment firm Kohlberg Kravis Roberts, whose strategic partners are hedge funds.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/odru363cqa171.jpg?width=200&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=852f95acbb1d5354e65c9f6b1fc32c131c93a32a)
|
||||
|
||||
Mark Fickes
|
||||
|
||||
2005 Fickes and Overstock, Chris Cox
|
||||
|
||||
Here's another case of an SEC staffer who tried to do the right thing but was pulled back. In August 2005, Overstock.com filed suit against hedge fund Rocker Partners and the equities research firm, Gradient Analytics saying they illegally colluded in short-selling the company while paying for negative reports to drive down share prices.
|
||||
|
||||
Byrne took his information to the SEC. Mark Fickes of the SEC San Francisco office. He said, "Look at the patterns, their stocks are naked shorted by Dan Loeb, David Einhorn, Steven Cohen, David Rocker. [Look at] the dates journalists Bethany, Boyd, Remond, Greenberg wrote trash jobs. [that was Bethany McLean writing for Fortune, Carol Remond for Dow Jones, Roddy Boyd for the NY Post, Herb Greenberg for MarketWatch] Byrne said, "It was the same pattern, each one of these one of these journalists writes a hatchet job, there is naked shorting, SEC action begins against them, and the Milberg Weiss lawsuit. In every case, it's part of same bum rush on the stock."
|
||||
|
||||
Byrne argued that Gradient, an investment advisor which was putting out fraudulent reports the shorters used, should be investigated -- and that the journalists were central to his case. The subpoenas were issued to Carol Remond and Herb Greenberg to provide information about conversations that they had with stock traders and analysts.
|
||||
|
||||
Fickes issued the subpoenas with the approval of the SEC's head of enforcement, Linda Thomsen. It was announced that the SEC was investigating Gradient and had issued subpoenas to Carol Remond, Herb Greenberg and to Jim Cramer of TheStreet. David Rocker sold his shares in TheStreet. A month later Cramer sold some of his shares.
|
||||
|
||||
Bryne: "Jim Cramer gets a subpoena; you have three days to disclose it. He knows TheStreet will crater, he can't just go sell it with undisclosed material information. He can get a plan to sell x amount per quarter after he gets the subpoena. TheStreet broke under a dollar."
|
||||
|
||||
"Why would a hedge fund guy have an interest to own a financial publication? Cramer discloses in his books stuff that is widely illegal. Protection for journalists is about protecting sources about stories they are writing, not about their own corrupt market manipulation."
|
||||
|
||||
The question is whether freedom of the press extends to reporters whose articles are part of illegal naked short selling scams. Fickes wanted to know.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/s650tr5z56171.jpg?width=330&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=e085154954818611d3c78b7b0ed95a00a02303c7)
|
||||
|
||||
Chris Cox- Former SEC Chair
|
||||
|
||||
He was summoned to Washington to meet with the new SEC chair, Cris Cox. Ultimately, Byrne said, the SEC caved under the media pressure. Cox killed the subpoenas and the SEC dropped its investigation of Gradient. Cox was SEC chair when Gary Aguirre was fired.
|
||||
|
||||
What should the SEC do now? Solutions are there if it wants to protect investors, not do as it is told by the big broker-dealers.
|
||||
|
||||
- Require buy-ins. Require the broker of the investor who doesn't get shorted stock delivered to buy it on the market and charge the seller's broker. Of course, requiring buy-ins would make the stock go up, the shorters lose money.
|
||||
|
||||
- Restore the uptick rule so shorters can't sell for less that the last shorted trade. That would stop shorters hammering a stock down to bankruptcy.
|
||||
|
||||
- Create a consolidated audit trail (CAT) to collect order and trade execution information to identify and enable punishment of illegal trading activities, including naked short selling. More than a decade after the SEC promised it, following the 2010 flash crash, CAT doesn't exist.
|
||||
|
||||
- Impose real penalties on transgressors, like loss of license.
|
||||
|
||||
- Send cases of serial trading cheats to the Justice Department for criminal prosecution.
|
||||
|
||||
- End the revolving door with Wall Street.
|
||||
|
||||
- What will Gary Gensler do? And will he listen most to the pushback from the big brokers or investors like people on Superstonk?
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/8x1el37566171.jpg?width=988&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=296865c7cefe2fbb38b2ce25f4e6730bb498fa2a)
|
||||
|
||||
Gary Gensler- Current SEC Chair
|
||||
|
||||
_____________________________________________________________________________________
|
||||
|
||||
Questions
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/wwox8t4896171.jpg?width=998&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=01378e780fc8c6f174a6c840b76132b2b9e33c1e)
|
||||
|
||||
- You mentioned in your last interview that NSS has been going on for a very long time, but that it ends with Gamestop. Can you clarify further *how* you see this ending with Gamestop?
|
||||
|
||||
>LK: I meant the story I tell in the book I am writing ends with GameStop. NSS goes on.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/x8tcjb0m96171.png?width=1234&format=png&auto=webp&s=051d06480a45392f1cf48bd7579fc85a6f609447)
|
||||
|
||||
- Understanding that this is an unprecedented situation, we would simply like your personal opinion: Do you think that Wall Street/ US Gov't could/would pull some "trickery" to prevent the short squeeze from happening? What rules are they unable, or unwilling to break?
|
||||
|
||||
>LK: We saw in GameStop trickery using dark pool trades of single shares. We know -- even the SEC admits -- that brokers create fake options conversions shares. They will break every rule, helped by the SEC which chooses not to enforce or orders mild penalties.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/6prc9two96171.jpg?width=1079&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=5901203d74c13d3f0177dc484a6838a6b62a12e6)
|
||||
|
||||
now i want to play stardew valley
|
||||
|
||||
- What is your recommendation for finding a trustworthy, easily digestible news source for those of us who "don't have the time" to watch full hearings or read full bills?
|
||||
|
||||
>LK: Depends on the subject. An aggregator I like is Naked Capitalism which has a lot of economic stories. The Daily Poster of David Sirota. I think the American Prospect that ran my NSS story is good. You have to try various online media to find the ones that do what your asking.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/iosfnjcv96171.jpg?width=1080&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=dc409dc5f02241f1aa8d009096fcb65758e029a9)
|
||||
|
||||
*For clarification- The Hearings will be held: by U.S. Senate Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs on May 26, and by the U.S. House Committee on Financial Services on May 27.*
|
||||
|
||||
- Congress has 2 hearings scheduled this week that are bringing megabank execs up to testify. In your opinion, will the correct questions be asked, or do you believe this is just political theatre?
|
||||
|
||||
>LK: It's political theater. This is the same congress that has not reinstated the Glass -Steagall act of 1933 that separated commercial and investment banking, meaning keeping depositors' money from being used for banks own investments. thanks to Bill Clinton and Robert Rubin, the friends of Wall Street. You can tie the 2008 crash to that.
|
||||
|
||||
_________________________________________________________________________________________________
|
||||
|
||||
Thank y'all again for being so awesome through technical difficulties!! The show must go on, right?
|
||||
|
||||
Thanks again to Lucy Komisar for joining us for a second time. Lucy will be back next Wednesday to speak with Wes Christian. Details to come in tomorrow's Jungle Beat! Be sure to follow [u/theJungleBeat](https://www.reddit.com/u/theJungleBeat/) so you catch the latest news from around Superstonk, every day at market close!
|
||||
|
||||
I did speak to Lucy on the phone tonight and we agreed to both have a glass of wine in honor of Supertonk. And she said she will be sure to charge her iPad ;) 🥂
|
@ -0,0 +1,44 @@
|
||||
OFFICIAL AMA- Wes Christian with Special Guest Host Dave Lauer- Tuesday, May 18, 2021 @ 4:30 p.m. Eastern
|
||||
=========================================================================================================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/pinkcatsonacid](https://www.reddit.com/user/pinkcatsonacid/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nczgbc/official_ama_wes_christian_with_special_guest/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
[AMA 🏆](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22AMA%20%F0%9F%8F%86%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||
This is the official AMA (Ask Me Anything) post for Wes Christian, who will be joining special guest host Dave Lauer- [u/d](https://www.reddit.com/u/jsmar18/)lauer- on [Superstonk Live](https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCI4EET9NJPWxUuXGlG6fxPA) for a one-on-one discussion, with questions influenced by and taken directly from this post.
|
||||
|
||||
Please make comments on this post directly, as we will be referencing this exclusively to form the outline of questions for the AMA.
|
||||
|
||||
Please visit the [Superstonk Youtube Channel](https://youtu.be/2rJujnpKiqM) and subscribe and enable notifications so that you are prepared for the [live stream on May 18, 2021 @ 4:30 p.m.](https://youtu.be/2rJujnpKiqM)eastern.
|
||||
|
||||
Don't forget to like the video for more exposure! 👍
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/zw5a517hs6z61.png?width=170&format=png&auto=webp&s=569504eb49246cae1e7b869684ae36057ce46963)
|
||||
|
||||
Wes Christian
|
||||
|
||||
[Tuesday at 4:30 pm eastern we have Attorney Wes Christian](http://www.csj-law.com/attorneys/jchristian.html)!!
|
||||
|
||||
His primary focus in the last 11 years has been suing Wall Street for fraud.
|
||||
|
||||
Wes Christian is a Texas attorney with [an accent as big as his list of accomplishments](http://www.csj-law.com/attorneys/jchristian.html)! Once again I'm going to [shamelessly plug the old documentary Wall Street Conspiracy](https://youtu.be/Kpyhnmd-ZbU), where I first learned of Wes Christian along with all of the other OGs we've been talking to. And a fun fact... our former AMA guest and very favorite resident wrinkly brain, [u/dlauer](https://www.reddit.com/u/dlauer/) has served as an expert witness for Wes multiple times in the fight against naked short selling. They go way back...
|
||||
|
||||
Which is why we're having [u/Dlauer](https://www.reddit.com/u/Dlauer/) cohost* this AMA with his old pal Wes!! We are literally assembling the dream team here!! 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀
|
||||
|
||||
*the AMA will be curated and hosted by [u/Jsmar18](https://www.reddit.com/u/Jsmar18/)
|
||||
|
||||
This AMA Post will remain active until the live stream begins, at which point this post will be LOCKED. Please note that our AMA guests have limited time, and cannot possibly answer all questions, so we encourage you to put some effort into your questions so that they can be upvoted by your fellow apes for visibility.
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
YOUTUBE INFO
|
||||
|
||||
Please note... This channel is not monetized, nor will it ever be (screenshot this and hold us accountable), and is strictly for education and discussion as it relates to [r/Superstonk](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/) topics and the interests of the community. The idea was approved by the mod team, and the channel was created and is administered by [u/redchessqueen99](https://www.reddit.com/u/redchessqueen99/). The stream itself will be handled through a third party service with many live-editing features (omitted for security's sake) that allows a stream through Youtube.
|
||||
|
||||
Finally, we made the choice to create this platform because AMA guests seem to prefer the live stream method, since they don't always have a reliable platform to stream from. This allows us to offer them a choice of platform, and also a means of discussion with our members LIVE, that ultimately will cater to the interests of [r/Superstonk](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/) and this community of diamond handed apes
|
@ -0,0 +1,25 @@
|
||||
Biggest Broker In Sweden, Avanza, Not Providing Votes or Verification of Ownership.
|
||||
===================================================================================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/Sometimesiworry](https://www.reddit.com/user/Sometimesiworry/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nkmqvp/biggest_broker_in_sweden_avanza_not_providing/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
[Education 👨🏫 | Data 🔢](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22Education%20%F0%9F%91%A8%E2%80%8D%F0%9F%8F%AB%20%7C%20Data%20%F0%9F%94%A2%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||
The swedes have been fighting with Avanza over this for weeks now. On the Swedish sub iskbets a post have gained traction about a Swedish ape calling the financial inspection agency to talk about this. He got the answer that this indeed seems like malpractice and that we should contact the "konsumentverket" and make a complaint.
|
||||
|
||||
So all swedes reading this, go to [www.konsumentverket.se](http://www.konsumentverket.se/) and make a complaint. We are getting royaly fucked
|
||||
|
||||
EDIT: Avanzas clearing bank is BNP Paribas. BNP was heavily involved with the Panama papers. As soon as this is over I'm getting the duck out of there.
|
||||
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/Drollific](https://www.reddit.com/user/Drollific/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nkq6ni/the_biggest_broker_in_sweden_doesnt_allow/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||

|
@ -0,0 +1,61 @@
|
||||
Fidelity didn't sell. Don't believe the FUD.
|
||||
============================================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/locomoroco](https://www.reddit.com/user/locomoroco/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/comments/lhfsbq/fidelity_didnt_sell_dont_believe_the_fud/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
|
||||
Edit 1: *Disclaimer: I am not a financial advisor and IANAL. This material and information contained here are for educational purposes only. You should not rely on this material to make financial or legal decisions*.
|
||||
|
||||
I commented this, but it deserved a post.
|
||||
|
||||
You probably saw the WSJ claiming Fidelity sold along with several post here about the same. Seems like more propaganda. I've also noticed several post claiming that we should leave Fidelity. I swear hedgies are desperate now.
|
||||
|
||||
They didn't sell. What happened was a transfer of ownership. The WSJ article is worthless, because all they did was look at the 13G form submitted on February 10, 2021 which only shows 87 shares. See below.
|
||||
|
||||
Even if they really had sold, this occurred Jan 26-29 which means that it's already included in the [FINRA SI% 78%. ](http://finra-markets.morningstar.com/MarketData/EquityOptions/detail.jsp?query=14%3A0P000002CH&sdkVersion=2.58.0)Don't believe everything you read specially without ANY SOURCES.
|
||||
|
||||
I think everyone is confused about what form 13G is. [It represents change of ownership when a party acquires more than 5% beneficial ownership, NOT SELLING.](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/schedule13g.asp) So on [February 8, 2021 FMR LLC gave beneficial ownership of 9,276,087 shares to FMR Co. LLC.](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0000315066/000031506621001050/filing.txt)
|
||||
|
||||
Then on [February 10, 2021 FMR LLC gave beneficial ownership of 87 shares to Strategic Advisers LLC.](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0000315066/000031506621001389/filing.txt)
|
||||
|
||||
FMR LLC has 0 shares of beneficial ownership now.
|
||||
|
||||
FMR Co LLC has 9,276,000 shares of beneficial ownership now.
|
||||
|
||||
Strategic Advisers LLC has 87 shares of beneficial ownership now. Based on this Fidelity fund, [FCTDX](https://fundresearch.fidelity.com/mutual-funds/summary/31635R363), this group manages it based on the [prospectus](https://www.actionsxchangerepository.fidelity.com/ShowDocument/ComplianceEnvelope.htm?_fax=-18%2342%23-61%23-110%23114%2378%23117%2320%23-1%2396%2339%23-62%23-21%2386%23-100%2337%2316%2335%23-68%2391%23-66%2354%23103%23-16%2369%23-30%2358%23-20%2376%23-84%23-11%23-87%230%23-50%23-20%23-92%23-98%23-116%23-28%2358%23-38%23-43%23-39%23-42%23-96%23-88%2388%23-45%23-55%23-85%23112%230%2340%23-99%2332%2357%23-74%235%23-89%23-105%23-67%23126%2377%23-126%23100%2345%23-44%23-73%23-15%238%23-21%23-37%23-17%23-14%23-98%23123%23-18%2345%23-59%23-82%2367%2383%23112%2317%2370%23-78%2378%23-50%2336%23-86%23-90%2381%23-21%23-119%23-30%23120%2349%2328%23-98%2333%2351%23-78%23-119%23-16%2350%23-58%2350%23102%2348%23-17%2352%23-99%23#doc_div).
|
||||
|
||||
The additional 6,800,276 shares belong to this fund, [FDMLX](https://fundresearch.fidelity.com/mutual-funds/summary/316345875#), and I believe they remain there since the transfer of ownership did not include this number.
|
||||
|
||||
Edit 2: IMPORTANT: From the comments, some people still believe Fidelity sold on 12/31/2020 to FMR Co LLC. So, I am providing more info on it. My brain hurts from all the legal jargon.
|
||||
|
||||
THEY DIDN'T SELL. To understand why I say this let's look at Schedule 13D. But first:
|
||||
|
||||
Look at [Item 7 which points you to Exhibit A:](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0000315066/000031506621001050/filing.txt)
|
||||
|
||||
> Pursuant to the instructions in Item 7 of Schedule 13G, the following table lists the identity and Item 3 classification, if applicable, of each relevant entity that beneficially owns shares of the security class being reported on this Schedule 13G.
|
||||
>
|
||||
> Fidelity Management & Research Company LLC * IA
|
||||
>
|
||||
> *Entity beneficially owns 5% or greater of the outstanding shares of the security class being reported on this Schedule 13G.
|
||||
|
||||
Per [form 13F](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1145247/000114524720000003/xslForm13F_X01/primary_doc.xml), on January 1, 2020 four companies (FMR Co., Inc., Fidelity SelectCo, LLC, Fidelity Investments Money Management, Fidelity Management & Research Company (FMR Co,. Inc)) merged and became Fidelity Management & Research Company LLC (FMR Co. LLC).
|
||||
|
||||
FMR Co. LLC is owned by FMR LLC, [per 13G Exhibit A 2021-02-08](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0000315066/000031506621001050/filing.txt).
|
||||
|
||||
> *Fidelity Management & Research Company LLC ("FMR Co. LLC"), a wholly owned subsidiary of FMR LLC*
|
||||
|
||||
What is Schedule 13D:
|
||||
|
||||
[Schedule 13D](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/schedule13d.asp) is also known as the "beneficial ownership report". This is a form that must be filed with the SEC when a person or group ACQUIRES MORE THAN 5% of any class of a company's equity shares. KEYWORD, ACQUIRES, NOT SELLS.
|
||||
|
||||
In form 13G you'll see this text, [RULE 13d-1(k)(1) AGREEMENT](https://www.law.cornell.edu/cfr/text/17/240.13d-1). All this legal jargon is making my brain hurt. This agreement simply means if each person/group can individually file form 13G for all the changes within form 13G, then only one statement is required. This is why we see FMR LLC file the forms.
|
||||
|
||||
Why is December 31, 2020 important? Form 13G says, "*Institutional investors are required to file an amendment to report any changes within 45 days of the end of the year*". What are these changes? Glad you asked, CHANGE IN OWNERSHIP.
|
||||
|
||||
From the filing date of [2021-02-08](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0000315066/000031506621001050/filing.txt) to 2020-12-31, there are 39 days. They are reporting (6 days before the deadline of Schedule 13G) that FMR Co. LLC is now the beneficial owner of 9,276,087 shares.
|
||||
|
||||
They do the same 2 days later on [February 10, 2021](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0000315066/000031506621001389/filing.txt), because of *changes to the information contained in a Schedule 13G form must be amended through additional reporting.* What changes? 87 shares are now owned by Strategic Advisers LLC*.* This had to be submitted *within 10 days of any month-end where the holder's ownership increases or decreases by 5% or more.*
|
@ -0,0 +1,56 @@
|
||||
The real reason Wall Street is terrified of the GME situation
|
||||
=============================================================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :----: | :----: |
|
||||
| [u/johnnydaggers](https://www.reddit.com/user/johnnydaggers/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/l97ykd/the_real_reason_wall_street_is_terrified_of_the/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
[Discussion](https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/search?q=flair_name%3A%22Discussion%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||
I have been following GME since mid-September and over that time I have banked myself a %1300 return in the process. However, the whole time I was a little puzzled with how severe the reactions from Wall Street have been, especially this week. "The company had more than 100% of its stock sold short! That's never happened before!", you say. I know, I know, but that's [not actually not a new thing](https://www.forbes.com/2006/08/25/naked-shorts-global-links-cx_lm_0825naked.html?sh=f59ff078400b). A short squeeze, even one of this magnitude, should have squoze by now with GME up more than 10x in the span of weeks. Something is just not right. I think there is something much, much bigger going on here. Something big enough to blow up the entire financial system.
|
||||
|
||||
Here is my hypothesis: I think the hedge funds, clearing houses, and DTC executed a coordinated effort to put Game Stop out of business by conspiring to create a gargantuan number of counterfeit shares of GME, possibly 100-200% or more of the shares originally issued by Game Stop. In the process, they may have accidentally created a bomb that could blow up the entire system as we know it and we're seeing their efforts to cover this up unfold now. What is that bomb? I believe retail investors may hold more than 100% of GME (not just 100% of the float, more than 100% of the actual company). This would be definitive proof of illegal activity at the highest levels of the financial system.
|
||||
|
||||
For you to follow this argument, you need to go read the white paper ["Counterfeiting Stock 2.0"](http://counterfeitingstock.com/CS2.0/CounterfeitingStock.html) so you understand how the hedge funds can create fake stock out of thin air and disguise it so it looks like real shares. They use these fake shares in [short attacks to drive the price of a company down until they put them into bankruptcy](https://seekingalpha-com.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/seekingalpha.com/amp/instablog/11442671-gerald-klein/3096735-anatomy-of-a-short-attack?amp_js_v=a6&_gsa=1&usqp=mq331AQHKAFQArABIA%3D%3D). This practice seems to be widespread among hedge funds that go short. There is even a term for it, "strategic fails--to--deliver." Counterfeiting shares is extremely illegal (similar level to counterfeiting money) but it's very difficult to prove and even getting the court to approve subpoenas because of the way the financial industry has stacked the deck against investigations.
|
||||
|
||||
This completely explains why so many levels of the financial system seem to be actively trying to get in the way of retail investors purchasing more GME. It's not just about a short squeeze, it's about their firms' very existence and their own personal freedom. We have the opportunity to put all these people in jail by proving that we own more than 100% of shares in existence.
|
||||
|
||||
There are are 71 million shares of GME that have ever been issued by the company. Institutions have reported to the SEC via [13F filings](https://fintel.io/so/us/gme) that they own more than 102,000,000 shares (including the 13% of GME stock is owned by Ryan Cohen). Now, I don't know the delay/variance on these ownership numbers, but I think there is a pretty solid argument that close to 100% of GME is owned by these firms, if not more.
|
||||
|
||||
Moreover, there are now more than 7 million people subscribed to [r/wallstreetbets](https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/)~~. I know lots of people here are sitting on a few hundred shares that they bought back when it was under $50. Some of us are even holding thousands. If the average number of shares owned by each subscriber is even close to 5-10, we have a very good shot at also owning a similarly enormous amount of GME.~~ Even if the average was just 10 shares per legit subscriber, that puts the minimum retail position at about 30-50% of the entire company.
|
||||
|
||||
GME has been on the NYSE threshold list for almost a month. We don't have January data yet, but I just analyzed the data from the [SEC's fails--to--deliver list for December](https://www.sec.gov/data/foiadocsfailsdatahtm) (all 65,871 lines of it) and looked up the number of shares that were likely counterfeit. For comparison, I did the same for a couple random tickers. Most companies have close to no shares not show up. Of those that do, it's a relatively small number of shares. For example, two random companies: Lowes ($LOW, ~$125B market cap) had 13,960 shares fail to be delivered at its highest point that month, Boston Beer Company ($SAM, $11.5B market cap) had 295 shares fail to be delivered.
|
||||
|
||||
How many shares of GME failed to deliver? 1,787,191. As the white papers points out, the true number of counterfeit shares can be 20x this number. How bad do you think that number will be when we get the numbers for January? I'm willing to bet its many times that. Look at how that compares to other companies' stock:
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/g723jvyhine61.png?width=445&format=png&auto=webp&s=39bad6c47b428d364de36e9888de35b79572d1da)
|
||||
|
||||
Histogram showing number of shares that weren't delivered in December (x-axis) vs the number of companies that fall into that bin (y-axis). GME is an extreme outlier.
|
||||
|
||||
I think this explains all the shenanigans going on the last few days. There is way too much counterfeit GME stock out there and DTC, the clearing houses, and the hedge funds are all in on it. That's why there has been such a coordinated effort to disrupt our ability to buy shares. No real shares can be found and it's about to cause the system to fall apart.
|
||||
|
||||
*TLDR; We probably own way more of GME than we think and that is freaking out Wall Street because it could prove they've been up to some extremely illegal shit and the whole system could implode as a result.*
|
||||
|
||||
Disclaimer: I'm just a starving engineering PhD student and I don't work in finance. I have no inside knowledge of how the financial system works and I may be wrong on some of this. This is not financial advice and you shouldn't trade based on it. I am book-smart but I still eat crayons like the rest of you. Obligatory rocket: 🚀
|
||||
|
||||
EDIT 0: Looks like I truly belong on this sub. On the first version of this post I didn't read the file description properly and summed a cumulative distribution. My numbers were wrong, but I have updated the plot and post with the correct numbers.
|
||||
|
||||
EDIT 1: You should also note this is the distribution for NASDAQ tickers, not the entire NYSE. I doubt that the distribution trend is any different though.
|
||||
|
||||
EDIT 2: Evidence that Fannie May and Freddie Mac were killed in 2008 via short attacks using counterfeit shares: [report](https://www.sec.gov/comments/s7-08-09/s70809-407a.pdf). Exactly what I think they were trying to do to GME.
|
||||
|
||||
EDIT 3: A lot of people were hung up on the "3 shares per wsb subscriber thing". I know many accounts are bots, I was intentionally underestimating that number. I have adjusted to 10 shares per "legit subscriber" to reflect this without changing the total amount I think retail owns.
|
||||
|
||||
EDIT 4: What I'm seeing on Twitter makes me think I'm being interpreted a little too hyperbolically when I say "Something big enough to blow up the entire financial system." We're not going to go back to mud huts, people. This could just be really disruptive for a short amount of time and cause a number of firms to face liquidity problems, possibly bankrupting some of them. Life will go on and I'm confident regulators and government will step in and protect people if necessary. Hopefully they pay more attention to enforcing securities laws going forward to prevent this from happening again.
|
||||
|
||||
EDIT 5: [Backup link for white paper.](https://web.archive.org/web/20210131014127/counterfeitingstock.com/CS2.0/CounterfeitingStock.html)
|
||||
|
||||
EDIT 6: I am getting thousands of messages. I won't be able to respond to all of them. Here is an FAQ:
|
||||
|
||||
1. *How do I learn investing?*I am not an authority on this, but my personal opinion is to first learn how to read a company's financial documents and value businesses and only then start thinking about putting your money into specific stocks. Read "the intelligent investor" by Benjamin Graham for this. Then learn how to think about picking stocks. I like Peter Lynch's books for this.
|
||||
|
||||
2. *What is going to happen this week?*I have no idea and I wouldn't dare to guess.
|
||||
|
||||
3. *Are you going to be killed?*I don't know where people are getting this idea. I have no special knowledge or insider contacts, and I am in no way, shape, or form an expert on the market or the system behind it. Please treat my tinfoil-hat conspiracy theories as just that. There is nothing to gain from harming me and I have no doubts about my safety. These are just personal opinions and I don't have any schemes to "take down the shorts" or anything like that. I do not advocate for you to buy, hold, or sell. I'm just postulating on how we might have found ourselves in this place.
|
@ -0,0 +1,80 @@
|
||||
$GME is a time bomb and it's highlighting a severe vulnerability in the financial system.
|
||||
=========================================================================================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :----: | :----: |
|
||||
| [u/forzan](https://www.reddit.com/user/forzan/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/lanf94/gme_is_a_time_bomb_and_its_highlighting_a_severe/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
[DD](https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/search?q=flair_name%3A%22DD%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||
Disclaimer:
|
||||
|
||||
I am not a financial advisor and this is not financial advice. I barely understand how the stock market works. Professionally I'm a network security researcher -- my job is to find and explain vulnerabilities in other complicated systems that my smooth brain barely understands.
|
||||
|
||||
* * * * *
|
||||
|
||||
Guess what you fucking idiot -- you aren't allowed to collapse the entire financial market in less than a week using a phone app. It takes more time.
|
||||
|
||||
* * * * *
|
||||
|
||||
There are likely several million new synthetic longs of $GME, diluting the market, that were created on 01/28/21.
|
||||
|
||||
They were created by a market maker (or possibly several market makers) to stop the beginning of a short squeeze that would have bankrupted hedge funds if a margin call hit them, which ultimately could have financially impacted those market makers once liability for the shares was transferred. These shares weren't borrowed from anyone. They're imaginary. Pure fiction. A promise only a handful of entities can make.
|
||||
|
||||
The reason they did this was to buy time to save their own asses. [The reason they were allowed to do this is because regulations let them](http://counterfeitingstock.com/CS2.0/CounterfeitingStock.html).
|
||||
|
||||
The creators of those shares have 21 days to deliver. Until then, they aren't paying interest. There isn't a public record of their creation -- the closest insight we have to the number of synthetic longs in existence for $GME are the [failure-to-deliver numbers](https://old.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/l97ykd/the_real_reason_wall_street_is_terrified_of_the/), and $GME is a major outlier in that field. A fucking terrifying outlier.
|
||||
|
||||
We aren't bleeding out a hedge fund by holding. Melvin very likely *is* out of their position after losing half of their fund. There aren't 'new shorts replacing the old'. Instead, a buffer of imaginary stock was created by a market maker to 'flatten the curve' when a massive number of shorts had to cover once retail buyers started rushing in.
|
||||
|
||||
* * * * *
|
||||
|
||||
That's why you aren't seeing short interest increase even though there aren't any short shares left to borrow.
|
||||
|
||||
These assholes are praying that in the next month, retail buyers get scared, bored, or distracted. They're spreading FUD, attacking with short ladders, hoping you watch the short interest drop and think it's over. They're counting on you to sell your $GME at a bargain rate so you can pay rent, because they think *you're just fucking retail scum betting on a shit company,* and they've been playing this game longer than you've been alive.
|
||||
|
||||
They're also counting on you to obsess over things you can measure that they can hide. They want you to set rules and limits on when you're going to run away.
|
||||
|
||||
* * * * *
|
||||
|
||||
Simultaneous to the creation of these synthetic longs, DTCC increased collateral requirements on 01/28/21 to purchase $GME to 100%.
|
||||
|
||||
This led smaller brokers like Robinhood to restrict trading, depressing the price, conveniently making it less expensive for market makers to recover their synthetic longs.
|
||||
|
||||
The people that pushed this collateral increase knew exactly what would happen, because *it's their job* to know what the impact will be when they make changes like this.
|
||||
|
||||
DTCC openly stated they increased collateral requirements for $GME to reduce risk to their organization. DTCC recognized financial liability in this squeeze could eventually reach clearinghouses if the market makers went bankrupt. They know exactly what the failure-to-deliver numbers mean for this security.
|
||||
|
||||
It's possible that DTCC created new collateral requirements in coordination with the flood of synthetic longs explicitly to make it easier to recover those shares. It is also possible these actions were taken without any coordination with market makers, because DTCC knows it could have dampened and stretched out a squeeze through this act alone.
|
||||
|
||||
Their strategy is to stretch out a short squeeze into a 'long high' they can recover from if retail shares are sold over time, since retail can't buy them back.
|
||||
|
||||
And the people working at DTCC likely rationalized this was 'the right thing to do' -- to prevent a systemic failure that could have impacted the entire stock market -- because preventing systemic failures is the only reason organizations like DTCC exist.
|
||||
|
||||
Meanwhile, Robinhood -- the smallest player in the game -- honestly DTCC's buttboy in this scheme -- is going to be grilled by Congress over this shit.
|
||||
|
||||
* * * * *
|
||||
|
||||
Did you think we were the only ones that saw a black swan event coming when we bought shares?
|
||||
|
||||
The root problem is there are several players in the market capable of creating new shares without paying interest, capable of restricting trading -- and they all face severe financial liabilities if a squeeze happens. They want to turn the squeeze into a slow burn so the damage doesn't hit them.
|
||||
|
||||
If we continue to hold, a squeeze could happen sometime around or after Feb 18th, or another market maker could create *even more* synthetic longs to dilute the market, passing the hot potato. This could make their problem even worse once *those shares* are bought and held.
|
||||
|
||||
This could continue for an extremely long period of time until a financial regulator steps in and forces them to buy the shares they've sold.
|
||||
|
||||
* * * * *
|
||||
|
||||
TL;DR:
|
||||
|
||||
WSB is being made into a fall guy for the collapse of the market due to the creation of a massive number of preexisting synthetic longs that were bought and held. To fix it, market makers decided to make more, but their cure is also a poison they can't stop taking.
|
||||
|
||||
Strategy:
|
||||
|
||||
Hold your positions, buy at any price you can afford to hold forever, and hope that retail owns more shares than the total number that exist for $GME. Contact the SEC and ask them to investigate and to halt trading of $GME -- time is on your side if the clock ticks down the deadlines for market makers, while the stock cannot be sold by paper hands.
|
||||
|
||||
Postitions:
|
||||
|
||||
100 $GME 💎🙌 -- but only holding for $10,000/share -- I'm not so greedy that I want the entire market to collapse.
|
@ -0,0 +1,34 @@
|
||||
Why to REALLY buy GME (Solid DD)
|
||||
================================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :----: | :----: |
|
||||
| [u/tarheelsurfer](https://www.reddit.com/user/tarheelsurfer/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/lf023x/why_to_really_buy_gme_solid_dd/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
[Discussion](https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/search?q=flair_name%3A%22Discussion%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||
LEGITIMATE ARGUMENT TO INVEST IN GME AT THESE PRICES (Short sqeeze and hype aren't reasons).
|
||||
|
||||
Sherman started a turnaround of Gamestop when he first took over April 2019. He cut the dividend, began consolidation (cut some fatty stores), and began debt reduction. COVID threw a wrench in this because he didn't move online nearly fast enough.
|
||||
|
||||
When Burry first invested in GME, there was a reason. What reason? He spoke with Sherman about his plans and thought they wouldn't just survive, but thrive. Cohen also had a similar situation, and later of course he got involved. Sherman listens to both, and in their letters to him they basically tell him where he fucked up and how to move Gamestop forward.
|
||||
|
||||
Fils-Aimé the Nintendo guy that likes to turn companies around is added to the board. He turns stuff around as a hobby and is an insanely good marketer. This is shown in particular with his Nintendo of America endeavors. [u/kitrosreddit](https://www.reddit.com/u/kitrosreddit/) told me not to forget about Reggie so I didn't this time (sorry to the 100ish people that saw this a few days ago)
|
||||
|
||||
Next up we see the Microsoft deal. Although exact numbers aren't available that I can find, Gamestop will be receiving a royalty from gaming equipment sold via Microsoft. Microsoft is also expanding Gamestop's inventory on the inside and employees will use Microsoft software to run the stores. Microsoft doesn't want Gamestop to fail, nor will they let them. With 27% of new games bought at Gamestop and 40% of used games bought there, Microsoft saw an excellent way to try and compete this console cycle.
|
||||
|
||||
We recently saw Gamestop's holiday earnings. With a yearly revenue of roughly $7 bil, they were unprofitable this year. The current P/S ratio makes no sense unless it is expected to go out of business (good luck) or that it will not grow significantly over the coming years (lol). However, this is expected to change with earnings starting in March. They are expected to continue to be profitable moving forward as well. Gamestop still has roughly $500 mil in debt. How are they going to pay this off!!!??? Liquidating stores and consolidation. This was a Cohen continuation idea that Sherman had started, just without the vision to make it succeed. A small stock offering (let's say 2%) would also leave them in an excellent financial situation. Additionally, we have the 300% YOY online sales increase, which accounted for over 30% of total sales. This is only expected to increase moving forward. While overall sales decreased by 3% YOY, inefficient stores were cut out of the picture. Comparative store sales increased by 5% YOY, but this was even stagnated due to state restrictions on 'nonessential' businesses. Places that had significantly fewer COVID numbers had over 30% YOY growth.
|
||||
|
||||
Next, we have the Chewy powerhouses joining the board of directors. Out with the old, in with the new. Even though most directors were acquired in 2020, these new additions add incredible value to the company. Sherman listens to Cohen. Cohen and friends had some focuses at Chewy that led to insane amounts of profit. They focused on cutting costs and maximizing efficiency. Expect the same for Gamestop. This was something that can be effectively implemented with all the new leadership. All ears are on Cohen and his ideas to make Gamestop a 1 stop gaming shop.
|
||||
|
||||
Most recently were the adds on 2/3/21 Francis: That AWS engineering guy that's now heading technology!? Nice. Durkin: Customer service VP from Chewy is now in charge of Gamestop's customer service!? Fuck yes Chewy has insanely good customer service. Krueger: Big filler boi from Amazon et all now running e-commerce fulfillment!? Dope.
|
||||
|
||||
Conservative price target: $200 by mid 2021 with little hype and absent a short squeeze
|
||||
|
||||
Tldr: Idc about a squeeze or hype but I like the stock.
|
||||
|
||||
But what do I know I'm literally retarded and not a financial advisor... positions 5200 shares GME, 52x covered calls sold exp 2/12, 50x calls bought exp 2/26, a few bucks in cash waiting for a drop if it happens. Tell if I'm wrong somewhere with sources linked please and thank you.
|
||||
|
||||
Edit: As requested, my average cost is roughly $60 after buying back in late last week. I had original shares at an average buy in of about $30 assigned to covered calls on 1/29. I believed the company had too much downside at those prices.
|
@ -0,0 +1,82 @@
|
||||
GME Short Percentage of Float is 117% - Crunching the Short Interest Numbers
|
||||
============================================================================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/joethejedi67](https://www.reddit.com/user/joethejedi67/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Wallstreetbetsnew/comments/lgml7u/gme_short_percentage_of_float_is_117_crunching/gmsm1pu/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
|
||||
[DD](https://www.reddit.com/r/Wallstreetbetsnew/search?q=flair_name%3A%22DD%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||
Gather round, diamond handed apes and crayon eating retards. There is a lot of confusion about what short interest from the short interest report today actually means. Here is how it breaks down.
|
||||
|
||||
Today's reported short interest is 78.46. Short Interest is the percentage of short shares of the outstanding shares. Outstanding shares means ALL the shares of the stock, including restricted shares and shares held by insiders.
|
||||
|
||||
GME has 69,750,000 outstanding shares. 78.46% of those outstanding shares is 54,725,850 shares. So as of the settlement date of 1/29 there were 54,725,850 shorted shares out there that need to be covered. By comparison, the number of shorted shares from the 1/15 report was 61,780,000 . So since the 1/15 report to the 1/29 only 7,054,150 shorts were covered.
|
||||
|
||||
Got it so far? Ok here is the good shit.
|
||||
|
||||
Float is the number of shares that are available to trade. Float is the number of outstanding shares minus the restricted shares and the shares held by insiders. GME Float is 46,890,000 .
|
||||
|
||||
So the short float percentage is the number of shorted stocks (54,735,850) divided by the float (46,890,000) x 100. So, the SHORT PERCENTAGE OF FLOAT IS 117%.
|
||||
|
||||
Thats right, the 1/29 report tells us that the short stocks are 117% of the available GME stock. Did you all hear me?
|
||||
|
||||
The next part is the REALLY GOOD SHIT
|
||||
|
||||
Let's take a a look at the 7,054,150 shorts that were covered between the 1/15 report and the 1/29 report. The short interest report from 1/29 is from the SETTLEMENT date, not the trading date. It takes two days for settlement, so the short interest you see is actually from trading through 1/27. Likewise, the 1/15 report is from trading through 1/13.
|
||||
|
||||
Ok, according to todays report, 7,054,150 shorts were covered between 1/13 and 1/27. So what happened during that period?
|
||||
|
||||
On 1/13 GME opened at 20.42 and closed at 31.40. On January 27 GME closed at 347.51. That is an increase of 327.09. That is an increase of just over 1600%!
|
||||
|
||||
Of course, everyone knows what happened on the following day. The price shot up to 450, the DTC increased margins and shut down retail buyers.
|
||||
|
||||
Only 7,054,150 shares were covered during that 1600% increase in GME stonks. Some of that increase must have been due to people jumping on the bandwagon so the increase probably isn't completely due to the short squeeze that had started.
|
||||
|
||||
TLDR: The Short Interest Report today shows us that on there was 112% more shares shorted than were actually available to purchase on 1/27/21. Between 1/13 and 1/27 on about 7 million shorts were covered.
|
||||
|
||||
The hedges are fucked. They have been shorting like crazy since 1/27 because they were really bleeding by that point. They had to keep the price down and try to reduce retail purchases and holdings by all the shit we have seen in the subs, on twitter and tv.
|
||||
|
||||
Nothing has changed, the squeeze has not happened yet.
|
||||
|
||||
Buy Hold. Peace
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
## Relevant Comment by [u/Rabbit_TRK](https://www.reddit.com/user/Rabbit_TRK/)
|
||||
GUYS I SOLVED IT! I WANT YOU ALL TO LOOK AT THIS
|
||||
|
||||
<https://imgur.com/a/0C748cH>
|
||||
|
||||
look at the difference in volume as of today.
|
||||
|
||||
THIS IS JUST TODAY
|
||||
|
||||
<https://www.theoptionsguide.com/synthetic-long-call.aspx>
|
||||
|
||||
Now this is what a synthetic long call is
|
||||
|
||||
This is what a synthetic long call is. Basically. When you short a stock. You are take 100 shares and selling them from an institution even if you dont have them. You have to cover that 100 shares at some point.
|
||||
|
||||
however. If you make another contract to -buy- 100 shares. You have in effect cancelled out your 100 shares you sold. Because you wrote a contract to buy 100 shares.
|
||||
|
||||
Now! Look at this
|
||||
|
||||
<https://www.ortex.com/symbol/NYSE/GME/short_interest>
|
||||
|
||||
The ortex short interest has been falling all last week along with the price. When GME is falling 100$ who is going to be looking at 800$ calls
|
||||
|
||||
which tells me that they have been buying 800$ call this whole time in order to cancel out their short positions. Because as the stock price falls those 800$ are going to get dirt cheap. Even when GME was going up 800$ were like 4$
|
||||
|
||||
i even have proof of one of the HFs doing it!
|
||||
|
||||
<https://www.holdingschannel.com/bystock/?symbol=gme>
|
||||
|
||||
look at seqouia or whatever.
|
||||
|
||||
they have like 1.8 million puts and over 6 million calls
|
||||
|
||||
I am trying to get this out there for people to see!
|
@ -0,0 +1,244 @@
|
||||
$GME Price Significantly Jumps EVERY 21-22nd trading day since December 2020. Linked possibly to Citadel's failure-to-deliver. Shorts have NOT covered **
|
||||
=========================================================================================================================================================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/ihatedmyboss](https://www.reddit.com/user/ihatedmyboss/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/comments/mfk7xa/gme_price_significantly_jumps_every_2122nd/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
[Discussion](https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/search?q=flair_name%3A%22Discussion%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||
Edit 5: May T+21 FTD prediction dates posted. Scroll down to view **May Prediction**
|
||||
|
||||
Edit 4: As predicted, price jump occurred once again on April 26-27th. Scroll down to see **April Update**
|
||||
|
||||
Edit 3: Updated post to reflect the [FINRA 7140](http://finra.org/rules-guidance/rulebooks/finra-rules/7140) rule using the Reddit mobile app, and now all the images I posted are gone (wtheck!). Trying to locate them all in my recycle bin and will be re-uploading all pics.
|
||||
|
||||
Edit 2: I'm receiving some comments today on 4/21 about my thesis. Remember, I'm not referring to the 21st of every month, I'm referring to trading days (excluding weekends and NYSE holidays), which I've explained in detail below.
|
||||
|
||||
Edit 1: Will be updating for April around 4/28 once all the data is available. Please scroll down to April Assumptions.
|
||||
|
||||
Theory/TL;DR
|
||||
|
||||
There seems to be a consistent pattern in GME's price jumping around the 21st/22nd trading day of every month, since the December 22, 2020 price jump.
|
||||
|
||||
This may be related to MM's/Shitadel 21-Day fail-to-deliver, since GME jumps in price even without any catalysts on those particular days.
|
||||
|
||||
Edit: ~~I'm unable to find any concrete info from~~ ~~SEC/FINRA~~ ~~about the 21-day FTD rule for Market Makers (I've seen several posts across diff subreddits about it)~~. Found it, see edit below.
|
||||
|
||||
Edit 1: I found this [FINRA 7140 rule](https://www.finra.org/rules-guidance/rulebooks/finra-rules/7140) about T+21 days and it mentions the following:
|
||||
|
||||
> (3) Automatic Lock-in
|
||||
>
|
||||
> Any trade that remains open (i.e. unmatched or unaccepted) at the end of its entry day will be carried over for continued comparison and reconciliation. The System will automatically lock in and submit to DTCC as such any carried-over T to T+21 (calendar day) trade if it remains open as of 2:30 p.m. on the next business day. The System will carry over any T+22 (calendar day) or older "as/of" trade that remains open, but such trade will not be subject to the automatic lock-in process.
|
||||
|
||||
Note: The part that threw me off from the above rule is that it mentions calendar days =
|
||||
|
||||
Edit 2: Apes 🦍, this isn't DD. I'm simply sharing my observation and would love others' input (hence marked as a Discussion).
|
||||
|
||||
Now, we all know the reported short interest is BS, and if it was as low as they're reporting, this particular price pattern would not persist.
|
||||
|
||||
According to some past posts (not Shitadelling on anyone's DD, respect to all apes contributing to this beautiful community!), a lot of emphasis was placed on options expiry date (Friday); esp the 3rd Friday of every month-- the assumption has been that GME's price will significantly jump on those particular days.
|
||||
|
||||
However, GME seems to jump every 21st and 22nd trading days, and not necessarily on Friday's options expiry date.
|
||||
|
||||
------ My Thoughts
|
||||
|
||||
Shitadel and friends purposely bring down price on options expiry date in order to slow down momentum and delay MOASS. However, if options expiry date happens to be around the 21st/22nd trading day, then we may see an even higher price jump on those particular days.
|
||||
|
||||
Edit: Perhaps I may not have explained myself properly/worded this post correctly, considering the comments. To be clear, I see a relation in the 21-day FTD rule (MM's can't locate shares to deliver) to GME's price jump around every 21-22 trading days (again, not calendar days), ever since December 22, 2020.
|
||||
|
||||
I'm assuming the price jump on Dec. 22, 2020 occurred because [Ryan Cohen filed a 13D](https://news.gamestop.com/node/18366/html) on 12/21/2020, increasing his position in $GME, which served as a catalyst. This is likely where the HFs/MMs knew they truly were screwed.
|
||||
|
||||
Important: I am NOT predicting dates of a MOASS here, just simply pointing out my observation in $GME price jumps. I explain more in detail below, with pics for my fellow apes who can't read.
|
||||
|
||||
Also, I didn't flair this as DD because this ain't no bombshell discovery.
|
||||
|
||||
I would simply like some insight and hoping an intelli-ape can shed some light on this.
|
||||
|
||||
I'm sure some smart ape must've noticed this price pattern before.
|
||||
|
||||
Me just a dumb ape who has a brain as smooth as the buns on this filet o' fishy:
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/pav0v0v8pmu61.jpg?width=500&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=8be24aeb1e7b31a4fe48079be274896bb1c34ffc)
|
||||
|
||||
LOL! This is a fish sammich from McDonald's for those asking 😂😂
|
||||
|
||||
------ My Observation
|
||||
|
||||
So check this...
|
||||
|
||||
Last month, I noticed an interesting pattern and didn't want to post about it until I tested out the theory to see if it played out this month as well.
|
||||
|
||||
And lo-and-beHODL, it happened again.
|
||||
|
||||
This is something I noticed in Feb, and the price jump has been consistent since December 2020 (though I did see a similar trend in November, but on different trading days: Nov 25-28th, if you wanna take a look).
|
||||
|
||||
Price Jumps every 21-22nd Trading Day since Dec 2020
|
||||
|
||||
Trading Day: days the U.S. stock market is open, excluding any weekends/holidays.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/sitybl06k0v61.png?width=600&format=png&auto=webp&s=4327b96dcd3d4088f296cdce2851a946b9b32c10)
|
||||
|
||||
REMINDER: market will be closed Friday, April 2nd.
|
||||
|
||||
Alright, so around every 21-22nd trading day, since the December 22, 2020 price jump, $GME tends to jump up significantly, followed by a downward price pressure typically on the 23rd trading day.
|
||||
|
||||
Friendly reminder, I'm talking trading days here, and not the 21st or 22nd of every month.
|
||||
|
||||
This may have a direct correlation to the 21-day FTD rule for Market Makers.
|
||||
|
||||
I'm going to try my best to break this down, but it may help you understand better if you take a look at [GME's price history](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/GME/history?p=GME) as I explain this.
|
||||
|
||||
------ The Pattern
|
||||
|
||||
On the 21st trading day (since the Dec 22, 2020 price jump), momentum in price starts to build up
|
||||
|
||||
On the 22nd trading day, the price significantly jumps up from the previous day
|
||||
|
||||
On the 23rd trading day, the price starts to decrease
|
||||
|
||||
This same pattern has occurred every month since Dec 2020.
|
||||
|
||||
Now, let's put this theory into action and take a look at $GME's price jump since December 2020:
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/2bkzgsiek0v61.png?width=894&format=png&auto=webp&s=6db34284c029da30bf46ca8e0623ebabdc08ce0d)
|
||||
|
||||
~ $7 price jump from the Dec 21st closing price
|
||||
|
||||
December 21 (Mon): $GME closed at $15.53
|
||||
|
||||
December 22 (Tues): $GME high $20.04 (price jumped significantly from prev day's close)
|
||||
|
||||
December 23 (Wed): $GME high $22.35 (price slightly jumped from prev day's high)
|
||||
|
||||
December 24 (Thurs): $GME closed at $20.15 (price starts to decrease)
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/bnb5r4eqk0v61.jpg?width=600&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=f86b29696fbdc9c23e39125cf4fb95277e64134a)
|
||||
|
||||
Now, if you count the # of trading days from December 22 (when the price started to jump), you'll notice the same pattern in January:
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/dzrcl984l0v61.png?width=894&format=png&auto=webp&s=5e83339b52bc4323718962469614131a062d1bb8)
|
||||
|
||||
~ $116 price jump from the Jan 21st closing price
|
||||
|
||||
January 21 (Thurs): $GME closed at $43.03
|
||||
|
||||
January 22 (Fri) : $GME high was $76.76 (notice the momentum in price? This was the 21st trading day from the Dec. 22nd jump)
|
||||
|
||||
January 25 (Mon): $GME high was $159.18 (this was the 22nd trading day and price jumped significantly)
|
||||
|
||||
Price went down slightly on Jan 26th, and on Jan 27/28 it rocketed to $380/$483.
|
||||
|
||||
NOTE: Now I know January price continued to rise even after the 23rd trading day, but this is because of the massive media attention, RobbingHood Vlad-born-in-Bulgaria's f*ckery, FOMO, etc.
|
||||
|
||||
Nonetheless, the price still followed the pattern on the 21st and 22nd trading day in January.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/wfznl0v9l0v61.jpg?width=599&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=b18b0a3f66da936901f8f435757c683002dff180)
|
||||
|
||||
Moving on, it happens yet again in February.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/bmz95jycl0v61.png?width=916&format=png&auto=webp&s=4780ce2df9522563e8abef9835906c2aec611a56)
|
||||
|
||||
~ $140 price jump from the Feb 23rd closing price
|
||||
|
||||
February 23 (Tues): $GME closed at $44.97 (interesting how it opened and closed at the same exact price)
|
||||
|
||||
February 24 (Wed): $GME high was $91.71 (again, price momentum building up on the 21st trading day since the Jan 25th price jump)
|
||||
|
||||
February 25 (Thurs): $GME high was $184.68 (price significantly jumped on the 22nd trading day)
|
||||
|
||||
February 26 (Fri): $GME closed at $101.74 (price decreased on 23rd trading day)
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/0nn7c66kl0v61.jpg?width=599&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=8b07df71f392e8ae6fcd28c24e1eb986d3d03ac2)
|
||||
|
||||
Here we go again in March, we see the same pattern:
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/bpo4e29nl0v61.png?width=921&format=png&auto=webp&s=72a1adc3220f05058ffe65bed839cefcfb69988a)
|
||||
|
||||
~ $98 price jump from the Mar 24th closing price
|
||||
|
||||
March 24 (Wed): $GME closed at $120.34
|
||||
|
||||
March 25 (Thurs): $GME high was $187.50 (this was the 21st trading day since Feb 24th price build up)
|
||||
|
||||
March 26 (Fri): $GME high was $218.93 (again, price had a nice jump from previous day's close)
|
||||
|
||||
Edit: Even after the March 24th f*ckery where the price was dropped all the way to $118.62, it STILL jumped up on the 21st trading day: March 25th.
|
||||
|
||||
Note: I didn't include the March 8-10th price jump because I believe that was the result of catalysts: GME announced Ryan Cohen to lead special Board Committee on 3/8, including appointing a new CTO. On 3/9, GME announced the Q4 earnings release date.
|
||||
|
||||
My point is that **aside from catalysts**, GME price jumps on those particular 21/22 trading days. This goes to show that shorts obviously haven't covered because GME increases in price even without any catalysts.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/er28vzswl0v61.jpg?width=599&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=61f3c0db62828639addae3b85f74e43b62ca5070)
|
||||
|
||||
------ Question about FTD
|
||||
|
||||
Can this be related to the 21 days failure-to-deliver rule for Market Makers (Shitadel) because they're unable to deliver the shares?
|
||||
|
||||
~~I've read DD on the~~ ~~21-day FTD~~ ~~rule for MM's, but can't for the life of me find this rule online; please link if anyone knows~~. Found the FINRA 7140 rule, see edit below.
|
||||
|
||||
If true, this proves what we all already know-- shorts obviously have not covered.
|
||||
|
||||
Edit: I found this [FINRA 7140 rule](https://www.finra.org/rules-guidance/rulebooks/finra-rules/7140) about T+21 days and it mentions the following:
|
||||
|
||||
> (3) Automatic Lock-in
|
||||
>
|
||||
> Any trade that remains open (i.e. unmatched or unaccepted) at the end of its entry day will be carried over for continued comparison and reconciliation. The System will automatically lock in and submit to DTCC as such any carried-over T to T+21 (calendar day) trade if it remains open as of 2:30 p.m. on the next business day. The System will carry over any T+22 (calendar day) or older "as/of" trade that remains open, but such trade will not be subject to the automatic lock-in process.
|
||||
|
||||
------ Assumptions for April
|
||||
|
||||
If indeed this pattern continues, then it's likely we see a similar pattern around April 26-28th (if my ape math is wrong by a day or so, pattern may occur earlier on Friday, Apr 23rd).
|
||||
|
||||
** April Update **
|
||||
|
||||
Alrighty apes, the T+21 FTD occured once again on April 26th as predicted.
|
||||
|
||||
Granted, this time around the price jumps weren't as significant as the prior months', but nonetheless, the price jumps *did* occur on the 21st and 22nd trading days, especially on low volume.
|
||||
|
||||
April 23 (Fri): $GME closed at $151.18
|
||||
|
||||
April 26 (Mon): $GME high was $174.68 (this was the 21st trading day since Mar 25th price build up). Also worth noting, GME hit $198 in after hours.
|
||||
|
||||
There were over 6k options expiring at the $200 strike price, and Shitadel made sure it didn't hit $200. Otherwise, we would've seen a significant spike in price since those options would've been in-the-money.
|
||||
|
||||
April 27 (Tues): $GME high was $188 (again, price jumped on the 22nd trading day from previous day's close)
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/8dejfl37c5171.png?width=917&format=png&auto=webp&s=75a53af49735e2d46774d4d67e8e5c290d154e2a)
|
||||
|
||||
~ $37 price jump from the April 23rd closing price. After hours jumped to $198 on 4/26-- this would make it a ~$47 price jump
|
||||
|
||||
------ May Prediction
|
||||
|
||||
The next T+21 FTD cycle is expected to occur on May 25-26th.
|
||||
|
||||
At the time of writing, there are nearly 4k options expiring at the $200 strike price, so expect some resistance at this price point.
|
||||
|
||||
If we're able to break through $200, we should see a pretty handsome price jump.
|
||||
|
||||
I will make updates here on May 27th.
|
||||
|
||||
------ Things to Consider
|
||||
|
||||
Remember: I'm referring to a price jump with or without any catalysts, given the MM's 21-day fail-to-deliver. I am NOT fixing dates here.
|
||||
|
||||
Edit: In other words, regardless of what price point GME is trading at, this pattern reflects an increase in price on those particular trading days.
|
||||
|
||||
This doesn't mean the price jumps will necessarily be higher than the previous month's. It's simply tracking the T+21 FTD cycle.
|
||||
|
||||
Of course A LOT can happen between now and then. GME can announce the shareholder meeting date, appoint new CFO, new Board members, more SEC filings, etc.
|
||||
|
||||
And as expected, more HF/Shitadel and friends f*ckery expected.
|
||||
|
||||
But regardless of a catalyst or not, it appears that a price jump always occurs on these particular trading days, since Dec 22, 2020.
|
||||
|
||||
With that said, anyone else seeing this pattern, or am I trippin?
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/ch4hpm71m0v61.jpg?width=640&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=627b7baac0413eb7edc9b50346a6f673c8e5e44f)
|
||||
|
||||
Would love to get some insight on this!
|
||||
|
||||
Obligatory: No SEC, this isn't financial advice. You should know by now I'm a smooth-brain ape. The other day I put 2 quarters in my ear and thought I was listening to 50 Cent.
|
||||
|
||||
Even more obligatory: 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🙌💎
|
@ -0,0 +1,142 @@
|
||||
Russel 1000
|
||||
===========
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/Leenixus](https://www.reddit.com/user/Leenixus/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/n6sv66/russel_1000/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
[Education 👨🏫 | Data 🔢](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22Education%20%F0%9F%91%A8%E2%80%8D%F0%9F%8F%AB%20%7C%20Data%20%F0%9F%94%A2%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||
*Not financial advice.*
|
||||
|
||||
There is 1 big bullish event no one's talking about. I've posted about it 3 times before, let's go for attempt #4.
|
||||
|
||||
- TLDR: GME might join a super massively big Index. The Russel 1000 series of Indexes.
|
||||
|
||||
- TLDR 2: This could be an anti-catalyst, not sure. Unconfirmed, must wait and see what happens if anything happens at all. Perhaps there could be an initial sell off if we move from one Index to another or other unforeseen price drops for reasons i don't know.
|
||||
|
||||
NOTICE: Probably not happening, there's 1 funny requirement for joining the Russel 1000 that GME does not tick the box for.
|
||||
|
||||
Companies with only a small portion of their shares available in the marketplace are not eligible for the Russell indexes. Companies with less than an absolute 5% of shares available will be removed from eligibility. See Section 7: Adjustments to Members' Shares Outstanding (Float), for details on calculations of available shares.
|
||||
|
||||
LMAO
|
||||
|
||||
What the hell is the Russel 1000 and why should i give a shit?
|
||||
|
||||
TLDR: Tons of non-GME lovers buy GME daily by buying ETF shares. If we join the Russel 1000, this is bullish as fuck. The price will go vroom vroom.
|
||||
|
||||
-----
|
||||
|
||||
Right now, the biggest index containing GME is the Russel 2000. Yes the 2000, not the 1000.
|
||||
|
||||
Simply by joining this index, because it's a bigger index than the Russel 2000, ETFs that hold GME will have to increase their holdings of GME accordingly and this means buying more GME shares.
|
||||
|
||||
Well, put simply, the price would start going vroom vroom!
|
||||
|
||||
How big is this Russel 1000 thing?
|
||||
|
||||
TLDR: Pictures speak volumes, so i'll just leave this here. Ticker IWC.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/qjekdww2lox61.png?width=712&format=png&auto=webp&s=6d4acc6a939a19be33b9b28b5eeb776c03272cfd)
|
||||
|
||||
I don't know if we'll be leaving one Index to join the other or if we will be in both.
|
||||
|
||||
When do they check if GME is eligible to join?
|
||||
|
||||
TLDR: Not guaranteed we're 100% joining yet, but we'll know soon. The process starts TODAY (May 7)
|
||||
|
||||
-----
|
||||
|
||||
Russel Ranking Day
|
||||
|
||||
TODAY (May 7) the FTSE Russel people are going to start the process of ranking a bunch of stocks out there to figure out which ones should join the Russel 1000 (or get removed from it cause they turned to shit).
|
||||
|
||||
This is called the Russel Ranking Day.
|
||||
|
||||
Source and details here: <https://www.ftserussell.com/resources/russell-reconstitution>
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/oeon01ejcnx61.png?width=962&format=png&auto=webp&s=ff325712a067b75b222f7d8a1dc49940ee203efc)
|
||||
|
||||
What's going to happen when if we do join
|
||||
|
||||
TLDR: Massively bullish. The ETFs who follow the Russel Indexes will have to buy more GME shares so they can offer them to their buyers. BUY = PRICE UP = Happy Ape
|
||||
|
||||
-----
|
||||
|
||||
The change in the contents of ANY Index is called "Reconstitution". This is because the Index reconstitutes itself, it changes it's contents e.g stocks that it contains, hence the word "Reconstitution".
|
||||
|
||||
In the last Reconstitution in 2020, this happened!
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/grjmwk69cnx61.png?width=933&format=png&auto=webp&s=7b87902ee51d7693b08dd673ce80f5217846a473)
|
||||
|
||||
Nice
|
||||
|
||||
- This doesn't mean you'll see VOLUME = 69.9 Billion (nice) for GME on the day of the Reconstitution.
|
||||
|
||||
- ~~You are likely to see a big number close or above~~ ~~100 Million~~ ~~(guestimate) as they buy the shares they need for their ETF.~~
|
||||
|
||||
You know what that means you dirty monkeys.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/v0kyut45enx61.jpg?width=1280&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=d8f74fa19854a0978beda790603267e1296dc7c3)
|
||||
|
||||
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jacques_Tits
|
||||
|
||||
Aight, so when are we joining this Russel 1000 thing?
|
||||
|
||||
TLDR: June 25 (Really it's June 28)
|
||||
|
||||
-----
|
||||
|
||||
The reconstitution finishes on June the 25'th (Friday)
|
||||
|
||||
<https://www.ftserussell.com/resources/russell-reconstitution>
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/w0w8266wenx61.png?width=947&format=png&auto=webp&s=9a5c9b41140715097e723e3bef788927bf312d23)
|
||||
|
||||
The actual finished and reconstituted Index will be available to trade on the 28'th of June (Monday). We will find out whether we're actually truly joining the Russel 1000 series of Indexes sometime from TODAY until the 25'th of June.
|
||||
|
||||
So sometime in the next 49 day from today May 7, we'll know whether we're joining.
|
||||
|
||||
How do they decide whether we're good to join?
|
||||
|
||||
TLDR: If stock price is high enough = Join
|
||||
|
||||
-----
|
||||
|
||||
If you're a wrinkly brained bastard with free time, the methodology on how they pick stocks during the Ranking is available here
|
||||
|
||||
[https://research.ftserussell.com/products/downloads/Russell-US-indexes.pdf](https://research.ftserussell.com/products/downloads/Russell-US-indexes.pdf?_ga=2.22793595.1387236641.1620369231-174493700.1617795049)
|
||||
|
||||
From what I've read, we're good to join. Have a read as well and "AKSHUALLY" me if you think i'm wrong.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/l1n21bkfgnx61.png?width=680&format=png&auto=webp&s=92f7f9a0278d9f3cbded903f684bb1a244f81962)
|
||||
|
||||
Kidding tho, do correct me if i'm wrong in something and i'll amend the post.
|
||||
|
||||
Try not to ignore important shit like this
|
||||
|
||||
This sub (Some users) is pretty reactionary and disses future looking (speculative) information. I'm here to shit on those users.
|
||||
|
||||
This is important future looking information you need to take in consideration. For you who are totally smoothbrained, don't be disappointed if nothing happens. GME will still moon.
|
||||
|
||||
*"Simple as" - Baz*
|
||||
|
||||
The Russel 1000 isn't 1 Index. It's a series of Indexes like Kathy Woods ARK ETFs (but isn't an ETF). Just like she has ARKW, AWKW and so on... the Russel series of ETFs have Russel 1000 Growth, Russel 1000 Value and so on. I don't know which one we might be joining.
|
||||
|
||||
More Russel Info
|
||||
|
||||
<https://research.ftserussell.com/products/downloads/Russell-US-indexes.pdf>
|
||||
|
||||
Random info
|
||||
|
||||
- We're not joining the S&P500 anytime soon. They need "the sum of the previous four quarters of earnings must be positive as well as the most recent quarter." <https://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/090414/sp-500-index-you-need-know.asp>
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/otlnmbdjfnx61.png?width=554&format=png&auto=webp&s=a6516c3fcdd2a01b3465ad9371bf83ed9d4aa866)
|
||||
|
||||
"Original Content"
|
||||
|
||||
Edit: Corrected ETF/Index wording.
|
||||
|
||||
TLDR: MAYBE WE JOIN BIG INDEX AND GME PRICE GO VROOM VROOM OR MAYBE NOT
|
@ -0,0 +1,192 @@
|
||||
I think I solved the Rubix Cube and... it is so much bigger than everyone thought.
|
||||
==================================================================================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/SoulSolus](https://www.reddit.com/user/SoulSolus/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/n7e18t/i_think_i_solved_the_rubix_cube_and_it_is_so_much/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
[Possible DD 👨🔬](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22Possible%20DD%20%F0%9F%91%A8%E2%80%8D%F0%9F%94%AC%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||
This is it. Game ends. I win.
|
||||
|
||||
Let me preface: I have been trying to crack this code for 3 days now. And after the Bill Gates divorce, I got on the right track all because of his relationship with Buffet. But it was always just out of reach of the right ideas. Without further ado. Thank you to all the apes who kept asking questions, kept making me question it in the comments. This is how great ideas are made by design.
|
||||
|
||||
The Achilles heel of Berkshire Hathaway: JP Morgan & Chase. & Berkshire Assurance (A government bond insurance company/their insurance float and basically insurance altogether. If this were to fail, Berkshire fails. (Tl;DR btw)
|
||||
|
||||
A small list:
|
||||
|
||||
- Berkshire Hathaway GUARD Insurance Companies.
|
||||
|
||||
- Berkshire Hathaway Specialty Insurance.
|
||||
|
||||
- Applied Underwriters.
|
||||
|
||||
- Gateway Underwriters Agency.
|
||||
|
||||
- GEICO.
|
||||
|
||||
- General RE.
|
||||
|
||||
- MedPro Group.
|
||||
|
||||
- National Indemnity Company
|
||||
|
||||
Here's how I reached this conclusion, it was handed to us on a silver... no, a GOLDEN platter. I am going to try to do this, quick & dirty, nice and concise.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/59tgss14psx61.jpg?width=640&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=41a6b2cf6d9ab6a43124b2d7c77285e8ae7cfb0a)
|
||||
|
||||
This is the third time I will be posting this. But this time I am 98% confident I have almost every piece to this puzzle and can at least make out a pretty clear picture. But anyone who thinks they have even the slightest grain to offer, I will take it, it doesn't matter how many times I have to rehash this to get it PERFECT.
|
||||
|
||||
Again I'll reiterate this same little Motley Fool article that piqued my interest in how Berkshire works.
|
||||
|
||||
"*Then there's perhaps the most overlooked (but most important) nuance of the Berkshire Hathaway portfolio -- it's not all stocks. The fund only owns about a quarter of a trillion dollars' worth of the same equities any other investor can own. But it's got around twice that amount's worth of privately owned, cash-generating companies like See's Candies, Duracell batteries, GEICO auto insurance, Pampered Chef kitchenware, Acme bricks, and more. These are makers of consumer goods that people tend to buy over and over again.*
|
||||
|
||||
*This is the sort of flexible, cash-driving portfolio that allows any manager to prioritize bigger-picture value creation. Not only does Berkshire not have to worry about stock price volatility for those organizations, it can buy, sell, and manage companies as needed so retirees don't have to worry about doing the same." -The Motley Fool*
|
||||
|
||||
(I keep my friends close but my enemies closer)
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/jcvtk3x5psx61.jpg?width=1853&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=4d71609beae66d8ff1ad8af8433b7d2daa194e9a)
|
||||
|
||||
And this is amazingly reflected in this chart. Not only that, here is from my other post some of the conclusions I drew.
|
||||
|
||||
So Why?
|
||||
|
||||
Well... Let me let Buffet himself explain EXACTLY in detail how he makes his money. By the way this guy may be the greatest holder of unrealized gains as he holds an iron fist of his own shares.
|
||||
|
||||
Here's Buffett on the float:
|
||||
|
||||
"Insurers receive premiums upfront and pay claims later. ... This collect-now, pay-later model leaves us holding large sums -- money we call "float" -- that will eventually go to others. Meanwhile, we get to invest this float for Berkshire's benefit. ...
|
||||
|
||||
If premiums exceed the total of expenses and eventual losses, we register an underwriting profit that adds to the investment income produced from the float. This combination allows us to enjoy the use of free money -- and, better yet, get paid for holding it. Alas, the hope of this happy result attracts intense competition, so vigorous in most years as to cause the P/C industry as a whole to operate at a significant underwriting loss. This loss, in effect, is what the industry pays to hold its float. Usually this cost is fairly low, but in some catastrophe-ridden years the cost from underwriting losses more than eats up the income derived from use of float. ...
|
||||
|
||||
Our float has grown from $16 million in 1967, when we entered the business, to $62 billion at the end of 2009. Moreover, we have now operated at an underwriting profit for seven consecutive years. I believe it likely that we will continue to underwrite profitably in most -- though certainly not all -- future years. If we do so, our float will be cost-free, much as if someone deposited $62 billion with us that we could invest for our own benefit without the payment of interest.
|
||||
|
||||
Let me emphasize again that cost-free float is not a result to be expected for the P/C industry as a whole: In most years, premiums have been inadequate to cover claims plus expenses. Consequently, the industry's overall return on tangible equity has for many decades fallen far short of that achieved by the S&P 500. Outstanding economics exist at Berkshire only because we have some outstanding managers running some unusual businesses."
|
||||
|
||||
Source: <https://www.npr.org/sections/money/2010/03/warren_buffett_explains_the_ge.html>
|
||||
|
||||
This is a letter to his shareholders (as per Bury's book recommendations above)
|
||||
|
||||
Yeah those are some unusual businesses alright. Like Citadel who we've read enough DD about to know that they short things into the ground and never even pay tax on the earnings and then hold big positions, like this
|
||||
|
||||
<https://fintel.io/so/us/brk.b/citadel-investment-advisory-inc>
|
||||
|
||||
So what was the whole thing that really set me off though?
|
||||
|
||||
Just a happy little accident that I didn't even notice I made myself.
|
||||
|
||||
You're going to laugh when you read what I wrote (#boycottcoke as per Burry again):
|
||||
|
||||
"Let's look at Coca Cola,
|
||||
|
||||
As of most recently, Coca Cola is Berkshire's 3rd highest holdings composing roughly 8% of it's portfolio. For such a prolific company I find it interesting that just as of most recently, from April 28th-May 5th they have issued Debt Tender Offers.
|
||||
|
||||
Better yet,
|
||||
|
||||
*"The Offers will expire at 5:00 p.m. (New York City time) on May 5, 2021 with respect to any Offer (as the same may be extended with respect to such Offer, the "Expiration Date"). Tendered Notes may be withdrawn at any time prior to 5:00 p.m. (New York City time), on May 5, 2021 with respect to each Offer (as the same may be extended with respect to any Offer, the "Withdrawal Date"), but not thereafter, except as required by applicable law as described in the Offer to Purchase.*
|
||||
|
||||
*Source:*[*https://finance.yahoo.com/news/coca-cola-company-announces-pricing-181500128.html*](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/coca-cola-company-announces-pricing-181500128.html)
|
||||
|
||||
Now in my previous post, I alluded to this being like in the movie *margin call where they are selling crap to the people who already buy from them at a discount because who the hell else is going to buy it. But it's Coca Cola! Why would they do that!? Well there are a couple of things interesting about this date.
|
||||
|
||||
See what I've prefaced in the past few days is that when Citadel et Al. that own parts of Berkshire Hathaway fall and have to liquidate their positions. Berkshire will be exposed to a sell-off. Not only that but Buffet as per the Motley Fool, challenged anyone to come try and short his stock as of February this year. I think this was a big bluff on his part and that he is quaking in his boots. Edit addition: Maybe so much so he would be willing to sacrifice coke's reputation to try and prop up Berkshire? Addition to the addition: thanks to [u/CookShack67](https://www.reddit.com/u/CookShack67/) , "According to SEC filings, Melinda Gates is now one of the largest shareholders in Coca-Cola KO, +0.14% bottler Coca-Cola Femsa SAB". New Edit: This was recent news and we will see where it goes from here. If my initial thoughts are true and Burry's boycott not unfounded then... You can draw your own conclusions with the below.
|
||||
|
||||
But let me finish the thought on Coke as per the source,
|
||||
|
||||
**this right here pay attention**
|
||||
|
||||
*"We have retained BofA Securities, Inc. ("BofA Securities"), Citigroup Global Markets Inc. ("Citi"), J.P. Morgan Securities LLC ("J.P. Morgan"), and J.P. Morgan Securities plc ("JPM London") to act as the Dealer Managers in connection with the Offers (collectively, the "Dealer Managers"). "*
|
||||
|
||||
What? Hasn't BofA had terribly large sell-offs? J.P Morgan. Funny Pretty sure if you check: <https://hedgefollow.com/funds/Berkshire+Hathaway>
|
||||
|
||||
Oh wow. Look They dropped J.P Morgan a while ago 100% Change 967.27k, to zero. Along with Pfizer, PnC Financial, M & T bk and Barrick Gold corp.
|
||||
|
||||
I mean, in a way, we knew all of this.So Coca Cola... Not looking good. But hey, I could be wrong. I accept that. But wait there is something else about these dates..
|
||||
|
||||
GME Chart
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/e34jo8pfpsx61.jpg?width=809&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=ace87cc167e8550e55b00768d795be07bd34e2b1)
|
||||
|
||||
"On April 28th we saw the GME price peak up @ 178.58 and then May 5th it bottomed out @ 159.48 and lower in AH, currently upward trending in pre-market as I write (7:59AM May the 7th). Seems a little too coincidental... Could it be that someone, some people got or are getting that special call real soon? Who knows. I just know to Hodl. As per Bodson in yesterday's hearing we know for sure at least that, they certainly got no call in January.
|
||||
|
||||
*Did you catch that?*
|
||||
|
||||
If you didn't let me explain. They are finished, caput wanted nothing more to do with JP Morgan. I literally called them out, and Bank of America out and didn't even recognize what I was doing.
|
||||
|
||||
April 16th
|
||||
|
||||
JP Morgan issues junk bonds <https://www.pionline.com/markets/jp-morgan-sells-13-billion-bonds-largest-ever-bank-deal>
|
||||
|
||||
BofA issues Junk Bonds
|
||||
|
||||
<https://www.marketwatch.com/story/bank-of-america-tops-charts-with-15-billion-bond-deal-the-biggest-ever-from-a-bank-11618606409>
|
||||
|
||||
BofA one of Berkshires Biggest Holdings and JP Morgan whom used to be:
|
||||
|
||||
Berkshire cut its holdings of JPMorgan from 22.2 million shares, worth more than $2 billion, to less than 1 million shares, worth less than $100 million. That's down even more since the end of 2019, when Berkshire owned more than 59 million shares of JPMorgan, valued at nearly $8.3 billion.
|
||||
|
||||
(thank you again our great friends form the FOOL: <https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/01/11/is-jpmorgan-chase-still-a-warren-buffett-stock/#:~:text=Berkshire%20cut%20its%20holdings%20of,valued%20at%20nearly%20%248.3%20billion>.)
|
||||
|
||||
And then to ZERO.
|
||||
|
||||
But what really caught my eye? It was coke in just that little week, more trash debt tender offerings, desperation. So what I wrote wasn't complete trash. The moment they were offered the price of GME started to inflate a little and just like in margin call as they loaded all their friends with the dog shit bags for Cents on the dollar, they took their little cash to push GME back down. Their backs are literally against the wall if I'm right. And I think I am.
|
||||
|
||||
And Warren, why do you hate JP Morgan so much? You used to be best friends, Berkshire, JP and AMAZON. America was going to have a Haven for health care Insurance (#Boycott Amazon)
|
||||
|
||||
<https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/04/haven-the-amazon-berkshire-jpmorgan-venture-to-disrupt-healthcare-is-disbanding-after-3-years.html>
|
||||
|
||||
[January 4th this year so the break up is still fresh :( ] JP went on a little solo adventure and kinda goofed up the entire system.
|
||||
|
||||
As for #boycottMLB #BoycottFacebook, My assumptions are Steve Cohen and Melvin but with the information above we have all we need. So I don't see a need to go there (yet).
|
||||
|
||||
This is why BlackRock was arguing with Buffet about ESG and greater transparency.
|
||||
|
||||
<https://www.gobyinc.com/esg-solutions/the-esg-reporting-matrix/> ( a better understanding of ESG)
|
||||
|
||||
<https://www.livemint.com/companies/people/blackrock-at-odds-with-warren-buffett-s-berkshire-hathaway-over-disclosures-11620323632301.html> (the details of why they are at odds)
|
||||
|
||||
Because BlackRock knows, just like I've been posting for days now. That once the hedge funds and ANYONE who shorted GME has to cover and force liquidate. Berkshire will plummet & it is Infinite exposure. The Jig will be up. In this multi tiered berkshire class A and Class b a stock of a stock scheme. All of them have to liquidate their positions in Berkshire and if I'm understanding some of the insurance policies correctly, the debt obligations are going to be so much worse than 2008. You can literally go through the Berkshire's list of insurances to get an idea.
|
||||
|
||||
Citadel with their , slowlyyyy slipping away
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/o9fmknywpsx61.jpg?width=1392&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=2b0a99b9fc43e006edd0243c55cb0807dbda951d)
|
||||
|
||||
BlackRock
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/lm3m2utxpsx61.jpg?width=813&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=64266e0dedcc955a9bb027d2b65f20e01a999e9a)
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/qolbv4a0qsx61.jpg?width=530&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=1270d374b56c7e1611967647a0ff5957bf14e34e)
|
||||
|
||||
Big Mad. Now I realize they are just hedged sadly with us.
|
||||
|
||||
And I could just keep pulling up 13Fs all day (like Vanguard right off the top of my head) holding Berkshire. Link them in the comments down below.
|
||||
|
||||
It's not just a house of cards falling, but the entire Shire.
|
||||
|
||||
Edit: I have removed the political reference, I simply thought it was interesting. I am not even from the U.S so it did not pertain to me., It in a way detracts from the importance of this for some who cannot keep their minds out of political headspaces and I believe distracts from the importance of this post overall.
|
||||
|
||||
And Bill, oh my god Bill Gates, the desperate divorce to move assets and try to protect. His portfolio is somewhere around 45% last time I checked. He owns so much of this shit, he is poised to lose grandly. (you can see my older post for all the Bill Gates stuff I came up with).
|
||||
|
||||
If I missed anything, I'll come back to it. Oh and this?
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/izvoip7aqsx61.jpg?width=778&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=4e26a47e1155b5aa4282c5569454b00d71286c17)
|
||||
|
||||
it's 9:05pm as of posting, AH ended there though.
|
||||
|
||||
This ain't no glitch. So stop, I thought you guys knew better than to listen to the media. Literally EVERYTHING they've said to date is a lie. I also disproved it in my previous post
|
||||
|
||||
<https://www.reddit.com/r/investing/comments/1n90gr/berkshire_hathaway_inc_brka_current_share_price_a/>
|
||||
|
||||
From August 19 2015 the computers had no trouble seeing above 1 million even though that too was a glitch. So that is crock. Whatever is making it glitch can't be good. Also if you look at my Tinfoil legends post, look at my chart analysis of Berkshire for crashes of 1998,2008,feb 2020. Basically, I assume feb.2020 was so bad because they didn't see it coming, but now I can also add that they literally could have lost everything if that buy button didn't get turned off. Ironically now, they will lose more than everything because I have a floor. And it is really, really high with all these contributors.
|
||||
|
||||
*This of course is still all my opinion and what I speculate to be correct, and some of it could be wrong, all of it could be. But I don't think so this time. In a matter of fact, I'm hoping someone here proves this stuff wrong. I am always willing to keep improving it until it is PERFECT.*
|
||||
|
||||
*I am not a financial advisor and there is no financial advise. This is all for educational purposes that I did this research and am simply sharing my findings.*
|
||||
|
||||
*Which initially I never had planned to even go further than examining the Gates Divorce. This is simply information I stumbled upon while doing my due diligence as an investor.*
|
||||
|
||||
*Disclaimer(s): I assume no responsibility with how this information is used I am my own independent actor in all of this as an investor in gamestop.*
|
||||
|
||||
I am also pretty messy so I'm sure this could be neater, but that's just how I am. Sorry. I want to go play video games now.
|
@ -0,0 +1,55 @@
|
||||
Gary Gensler, 47%, Antitrust, and Yet Another Reason Why Citadel is Likely Irrevocably Fucked
|
||||
=============================================================================================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/JustWingIt0707](https://www.reddit.com/user/JustWingIt0707/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/n84gzo/gary_gensler_47_antitrust_and_yet_another_reason/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
|
||||
[DD 👨🔬](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22DD%20%F0%9F%91%A8%E2%80%8D%F0%9F%94%AC%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||
47%, Gary Gensler, Antitrust, and Citadel
|
||||
|
||||
Gary Gensler talked about a lot of stuff at the hearing earlier this week. The representatives generally focused on a lot of garbage, and they have justifiably taken a lot of shit from this community for their piss poor understanding of the things they are supposed to oversee. Lost in the gamification discussion was Gary Gensler talking about market concentration and Citadel how 47% of all retail order flow is routed through Citadel. This is a serious issue, and it is one that can be resolved through one of the Commissions established by Congress, for example: the SEC, but it can also be referred to the Department of Justice, Antitrust Division or the Federal Trade Commission.
|
||||
|
||||
Why This Guy?
|
||||
|
||||
Before I go any further, I used to be an employee of the one of these last two federal agencies, and I happen to have a bit of expertise in the subject matter I am about to talk about. Other things I might be blowing smoke out my ass, but I'm trying my best to educate, inform, or otherwise support my fellow apes. I am willing to provide my resume and identity to the mods, but I prefer to remain otherwise anonymous.
|
||||
|
||||
An Extremely Brief History of Antitrust in the US
|
||||
|
||||
There are 3 main laws that govern Antitrust Law in the US. They are the Sherman Antitrust Act(1890), the Federal Trade Commission Act(1914), and the Clayton Antitrust Act(1914).
|
||||
|
||||
The Sherman Antitrust Act outlaws restraints of trade or commerce, and declares people who monopolize or attempt to monopolize or conspire to monopolize in violation of a felony. The first part is a civil violation and the second part is a criminal violation involving jail time and financial penalties, and it is per se illegal, or by even agreeing to be part of a conspiracy to restrict a market a person is in violation of a felony. There's a lot of nuance and practical considerations to how judges and juries find in these cases. One of the first antitrust cases was brought against a labor organizer. It is now considered to be a vast misapplication of the law.
|
||||
|
||||
The Department of Justice was deemed to be insufficient to deal with fast moving technology in the early 20th Century, and so Congress passed the FTC Act to get expert engineers and scientists into an agency with lawyers---to be better able to enforce the law. The Supreme Court has ruled that every violation of the FTC Act is also a violation of the Sherman Antitrust Act. The FTC can unilaterally impose monetary penalties, where the DoJ has to go through the courts for everything. The FTC still needs to bring criminal prosecutions to the federal courts.
|
||||
|
||||
The Sherman Antitrust Act had the unintended consequence of causing companies to merge in order to avoid prosecution. The Clayton Act barred several items: price discrimination between purchasers if such discrimination lessens competition, sales on the condition that the buyer or lessee not deal with the competition of the seller or lessor or requiring the buyer to purchase another product on the condition that this not lessen competition, mergers and acquisitions that substantially lessen competition, and barring a person from being a director on the board of two or more competing firms. The key here is "lessen competition," and how that has been defined in the modern era.
|
||||
|
||||
We can more or less ignore the FTC Act, and the Clayton Act matters, but only tangentially. It is however a significant tangent.
|
||||
|
||||
Enter Robert Bork. [Get a Load of This Mug](https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/d/d8/Robert_Bork.jpg) That's right. That Robert Bork. Nixon's Solicitor General, later federal judge, and then blocked from being on the Supreme Court due to being too extreme. He argued that the goal of antitrust law should be to protect consumers, because consumers are inherently foolish. So the consumer harm standard of antitrust enforcement was adopted. This implies that the harm to competition, the competitive process, can be observed through the effect on prices that consumers experience. This is still how antitrust law is enforced today.
|
||||
|
||||
Great, But How Does That Do Anything For Us?
|
||||
|
||||
In the short run, it probably does nothing. Antitrust matters move at the pace of the commissions and the courts, but buy and HODL, amirite?
|
||||
|
||||
This is a little heavy reading on how Antitrust cases are evaluated. <https://www.justice.gov/atr/horizontal-merger-guidelines-0>
|
||||
|
||||
Important notes not contained here: in order to prosecute a case for monopoly in order to break up the company there needs to be market power and abuse of dominance. Typically, the courts are skeptical of market power when a company controls less than 60% of a market. Control of market share is not enough. Due to the consumer harm standard, in order to prosecute monopoly or abuse of dominance harm to consumers must also be shown.
|
||||
|
||||
But how does this relate? Well... In comes market concentration, a popular proxy for how concentrated markets are already. The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) is a measure of market concentration. It is calculated by squaring the market share of the market participants and summing them. A market with an HHI of 1800 or greater is considered to be highly concentrated. Using that 47% figure that Citadel touts-and no one else's share, the HHI for retail routed orders is 472 = 2209. That market is already there without the other 53% of the market included. This only matters in the event of merger and acquisition, however. There's another key point here: Payment for Order Flow.
|
||||
|
||||
By paying for order flow, Citadel may be changing the market definition in a couple of ways. The first is, they are the consumer of retail orders from brokers, and they are a dominant player in the buying side of this market. They might be foreclosing other wholesalers out of this market and exerting monopsony power or undue influence over the market through purchasing. The other way they could be messing up is through purchasing all of any given broker's order flow. By doing this, Citadel has given consumers in the market no choice of order routing, and they are monopolizing broker routings. There is huge potential for profit taking internally here, because the price that consumers see is rounded to 2 decimal places, but as we all learned with the 32 bit integer issue and Berkshire-Hathaway, the price is actually calculated out to 4 decimals. Citadel could buy up your order flow at the 4 decimal price, match against the other end of a trade, and take 2 decimals of profit on every order.
|
||||
|
||||
On top of that, Citadel knew about these anti-competitive issues associated with payment for order flow as early as 2004. They specifically commented against them. <https://www.sec.gov/rules/concept/s70704/citadel04132004.pdf> There is no way for them to say they did not know about the harm they were causing and continue to cause as they caused it and continue to cause it.
|
||||
|
||||
Any of the above could be construed as an abuse of a dominant position, harm to consumers, if not monopoly or monopsony. This could result in $100M fines per day that these could be demonstrated. If Ken Griffin is implicated through documentation or other evidence personally, he could face a fine of $1M and up to 10 years in jail.
|
||||
|
||||
Citadel is likely irrevocably fucked, whether or not they survive the MOASS, whenever it comes.
|
||||
|
||||
Edit: TL;dr: A mentor told me I should try to be able to explain it to a 5 year old.
|
||||
|
||||
By paying brokers for your order, my order everyone's order to go through them, Citadel has been doing something that isn't fair and is against the law. They knew it was against the law and unfair. Ken Griffin could face jail time if it can be proven that he knew about some of the problems they were causing.
|
@ -0,0 +1,45 @@
|
||||
Wise apes really aren't lying when they tell you this is a once in FOREVER opportunity. It MUST not be fucked up, and everyone but the shorts will benefit 🙌💎🚀
|
||||
=================================================================================================================================================================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/Broviet](https://www.reddit.com/user/Broviet/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/n9n36z/wise_apes_really_arent_lying_when_they_tell_you/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
|
||||
[Education 👨🏫 | Data 🔢](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22Education%20%F0%9F%91%A8%E2%80%8D%F0%9F%8F%AB%20%7C%20Data%20%F0%9F%94%A2%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||
Howdy, apes and apettes. It's been a while! Not sure how many of you will remember me from our prior subreddit's glory days, but with the exceptional DD being put forward by the likes of [/u/atobitt](https://www.reddit.com/u/atobitt/), [/u/jsmar18](https://www.reddit.com/u/jsmar18/), and attention from [/u/dlauer](https://www.reddit.com/u/dlauer/) and Dr. T, my distant Wall St experience is no longer necessary. However, I did want to drop in with a quick dose of confirmation bias after this most annoying of Mondays. And that, of course, is to remind you of one of our months-old warcries that has since fallen out of favor: All shorts must cover.
|
||||
|
||||
I am well aware that, while most hands here have undoubtedly been forged into sheer impenetrability by now, brains so perfectly round are a little more difficult to pummel into the acceptance of fact. Every single-share buy routed through a dark pool. Every DTCC rule kicked down the road. Every shill post. Every threatening private message. Every congressional hearing where bushes aren't just beaten around, but are apparently nonexistent. Every Cramer meltdown. Every instance of Robinhood fuckery.
|
||||
|
||||
On their own, any of these things can and should be dismissed as inconsequential. Together, they are harder to stomach. But while I can't comment on the current state of affairs to the same level of depth or topicality as someone like [/u/dlauer](https://www.reddit.com/u/dlauer/), I did spend enough time on the Street to be able to assure you that all of this is happening for a reason.
|
||||
|
||||
These are the death throes of a doomed way of doing business. As you all well know by now, the big boys on the other side of this trade have a nigh-incomprehensible amount of Fuckery Implements. What you might have also picked up on, and why we are all still here diamond-dicking the ultimate circle-jerk of solidarity, is that none of these tools, or any combination thereof, can or will extricate shorts from their positions. These are all tools of avoidance. Prevention. Ensuring that such a situation is minimized. Ensuring that such a situation is avoided in the future. But that's it.
|
||||
|
||||
There are no rulings or tools or deception or FUD that will undo what they've done. I understand it's counterintuitive to think that, because even amongst old Finance colleagues I've spoken to, the prevailing sentiment is disbelief. "How could they be that stupid, even if they thought it was a sure thing?" Indeed. And yet here we are.
|
||||
|
||||
And since I'm here writing a post already, let's also take a moment to dispel the notion that there is precedent for the SEC/Government stepping in to "shut this down". If Burry, Baum, Brownfield, or the perennial favorite Greg Lippmann (I'M JACKED TO THE TITS) could've been shut out, they would have. They're legends now, but at the time, they had no more clout in the industry than any ape, realistically.
|
||||
|
||||
I do truly find it endearing that so many people here are still willing to theorize about specific date targets, and I no longer criticize this because I really do believe diamond hands will prevail no matter what, and that not even a never-ending hype cycle will stop apes. However, I must remind you to be patient. Stay just as angry, hungry, and determined as you are, but also be patient. Because while they can knock this down, drag this out, kick the can, punt the baby, defenestrate the roomba, they CANNOT get out. If there was a way out, they would've taken it long before retail interest reached a fever pitch. Since the end of grandfathering in 2008, there are simply zero legal options to resolve this that don't end in catastrophic and permanent lack of faith in our markets. Unless. Apes. Sell. So......don't? 😁
|
||||
|
||||
One last thing:
|
||||
|
||||
It seems a particularly popular form of FUD these days to harp on "how bad this will be for the average citizen". I'll dispense with most of the traditional responses to this. "DTCC has insurance", "It's not that expensive with geometric mean", etc. The impact on the average citizen will be nowhere near as great as the average shill or hedgie would have you believe, as there's not a legitimate housing crisis underpinning the entire goddamn thing and we're not offloading garbage on sovereign wealth funds. It's Gamestop, for god's sake. But I digress. Let's pretend for a moment that it is as bad as they say.
|
||||
|
||||
Let's pretend for a moment that the Fed printer goes BRRRRR and the American public is on the hook for...let's say....4 trillion. A nice 5m+ per share exit. So....roughly twice that nothing stimmy we just got. Roughly what we've printed this year already. Sure, retirement portfolios will take a hit. For most people not right at retirement age, the ensuing rebound will square their portfolios, and for those that can't wait it out....well, their community/region is now flush with tens/hundreds/thousands of apes looking to help out. But the most important thing, by far, is that the cycle of bullshit goes away. This kind of scenario HAS to happen in order for the general public to be protected from themselves. A set-it-and-forget-it 401k is always going to be the primary bagholder in these situations, and only one bad enough for Wall St will scare them into behaving even REMOTELY responsibly.
|
||||
|
||||
TLDR: The squeeze is inevitable. The only steps that would prevent said squeeze:
|
||||
|
||||
- Have never been taken before.
|
||||
|
||||
- Would annihilate global faith in our markets, likely forever.
|
||||
|
||||
- Will. Not. Happen.
|
||||
|
||||
Those living in abject fear (the shorts) will do their absolute worst to shake your faith. With their considerable resources, a lot will seem scary. It isn't. Because you've already won. And this is what's desperately needed to protect global retail investors from this type of predatory behavior. Only when a "revered" firm of sociopaths gets curbstomped back to the fundraising stage by retail will this level of fuckery be ameliorated.
|
||||
|
||||
Stay strong, stay mad, stay vigilant, you beautiful, stupid, stupidly beautiful mother fuckers. As the immortal Penguin Prison said [the first time around](https://youtu.be/LxfZRd9R4VI), "YOU GOTTA SQUEEZE, SQUEEZE!" See you on the other side. 🙌💎🚀❤
|
||||
|
||||
YOU FUCK WITH MY MONEY, AND YOU'LL BE SORRY!
|
@ -0,0 +1,34 @@
|
||||
FLASH CRASH WARNING - 4000 6/18 300 puts bought last friday, 1000 were exercised on monday to cause the end of day mini-crash
|
||||
=============================================================================================================================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/trust-theprocess](https://www.reddit.com/user/trust-theprocess/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nmxze3/flash_crash_warning_4000_618_300_puts_bought_last/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
[Discussion 🦍](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22Discussion%20%F0%9F%A6%8D%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||
As the DD has shown they use ITM puts as an expensive last resort to drop the price. Those 4000 puts cost over 51 million.
|
||||
|
||||
This is by far the highest open interest for any ITM put in the entire option chain
|
||||
|
||||
They may unload the remaining 3000 to try bomb the price down before these mass amount of calls expire ITM today, and so there isn't a 3 day weekend of FOMO buildup.
|
||||
|
||||
Do not set stop losses
|
||||
|
||||
* * * * *
|
||||
|
||||
Edit: Well damn I had to go out right after posting this and came back to it being the top post on the sub, lmao
|
||||
|
||||
Want to address this:
|
||||
|
||||
How do ITM puts drop the price?
|
||||
|
||||
I see a lot of people asking this, I read it in [this DD](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nc1lny/ive_estimated_the_current_si_based_on_the_si/), basically all options put pressure on the price, calls = upward pressure (see January gamma squeeze), and puts = downward.
|
||||
|
||||
How does it go down if the strike they're exercising is higher than the stock is trading and someone has to buy it from you at 300? The same way it goes up when ITM calls are exercised at a lower strike than the current price and someone has to sell it to you at 200. What are the mechanics that make it work that way? I have no idea, I'm as retarded as the next ape
|
||||
|
||||
They also use OTM puts to hide the SI% which can be seen when they have to report to FINRA, and they use ITM calls to satisfy FTDs which has been part of the T+21 cycles. They've been abusing options to manipulate and kick the can from the beginning.
|
||||
|
||||
I'm not sure if that exact date+strike was used today, but quickly looking over the chain for all dates it looks like hundreds of them have been exercised since yesterday just among the top 10 highest OI ITM puts $300 or higher
|
@ -0,0 +1,105 @@
|
||||
Margin calls, forced liquidations, and estimating Melvin's short position!
|
||||
==========================================================================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/yamayakuzaki](https://www.reddit.com/user/yamayakuzaki/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/DDintoGME/comments/nod4sg/margin_calls_forced_liquidations_and_estimating/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
|
||||
[𝗗𝗶𝘀𝗰𝘂𝘀𝘀𝗶𝗼𝗻](https://www.reddit.com/r/DDintoGME/search?q=flair_name%3A%22%F0%9D%97%97%F0%9D%97%B6%F0%9D%98%80%F0%9D%97%B0%F0%9D%98%82%F0%9D%98%80%F0%9D%98%80%F0%9D%97%B6%F0%9D%97%BC%F0%9D%97%BB%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||
EDIT 4- I apologize in advance if any apes have seen this on the other sub. I realized I cannot cross post, and was advised to create a new post, so here it is.
|
||||
|
||||
I'm seeing a lot of Apes assume that "When Marge comes calling, Team Shitadel will be forced to cover". This is not entirely accurate, and here's a post to help Apes understand how Margin calls work. Also, scroll down to Edit 2 and Edit 3 for my ballpark of how many shares Melvin shorted on Jan 25.
|
||||
|
||||
Margin calls are not necessarily always going to result in shorts covering
|
||||
|
||||
While margin calls CAN lead to shorts having to cover, this only happens in one of two scenarios:
|
||||
|
||||
1. the short seller voluntarily chooses to close their position because they do not have the funds to increase their collateral requirements
|
||||
|
||||
2. the short seller cannot fulfill its collateral requirements (defaults) and the lending broker takes the short seller's collateral and if required, any other assets owned by the short seller, liquidates it, and goes out to the market to buy back the share
|
||||
|
||||
If the short seller is able to post sufficient collateral when they get margin called, nothing happens. They do not cover.
|
||||
|
||||
How does a margin call actually work?
|
||||
|
||||
To short a stock, you need to borrow it. To borrow it, you need to post your initial collateral (which is typically 150% the value of the short sale at minimum...) and pay those insanely low borrowing fees. Let's ignore the borrowing fees and why they're so low and focus on the collateral aspect.
|
||||
|
||||
If and when the current stock price increases over the initial collateral amount each day, you face a margin call and are asked to close the position or increase your collateral (maintenance collateral) based on what the maintenance margin is (which ranges from 25% - 40% depending on the broker, but typically 30% on the NYSE) together with the total current value of the short sale value. I'm seeing margin requirements for RETAIL going up to 300%, but afaik, institutions are still at the 25% - 50% range.
|
||||
|
||||
Initial collateral posted for short sales is short sale value + margin requirement
|
||||
|
||||
So let's say, purely as an example (they very likely shorted WAAY more than this example), Shitadel initiated a short sale for 1,000,000 shares when it was at $40. The initial collateral required was short sale value + margin requirement, or $40 x 1m = $40m + 50% of $40m = $60m posted to the lending broker. This example also assumes they did NOT continue to add more shorts (which we know they did), or naked short (as naked shorts don't require collateral and are a whole different discussion).
|
||||
|
||||
As and when the stock price increases, Shitadel needs to deposit additional margin (the Margin call) if the total margin requirement is more than the existing collateral. If they can't do that, they can choose to voluntarily close their short position, or get force liquidated.
|
||||
|
||||
It's not WHEN Shitadel gets margin called. They already got margin called many times. It's when they can't meet the collateral.
|
||||
|
||||
This is not a one time thing - it happens EVERY TRADING DAY the price rises to the point where collateral needs to be increased. Shitadel has been margin called multiple times since the time the stock price was $40. They've just been able to either bring the stock price down so they don't need to post as much collateral, or they've liquidated assets to meet collateral. Let's look into this a little bit more.
|
||||
|
||||
After the initial collateral, maintenance collateral is calculated as short sale value (based on current price) + maintenance margin requirement
|
||||
|
||||
(let's use 30% as the maintenance margin for example).
|
||||
|
||||
When the price went up to $45, the total margin requirements for Shitadel were $45x1m = $45m + 30% of $45m = $58.5m, so they wouldn't have got margin called since the requirements are still less than the initial collateral of $60,000.
|
||||
|
||||
When the price went up to $50, the total margin requirements were $50x1m = $50m + 30% of $50m = $65m. They would have gotten margin called for the difference of $65m - $60m = $5m.
|
||||
|
||||
Fast forward to when the price went up to $277 ish ... the total margin requirements were $277x1m = $277m + 30% of $277m = $360.1m.
|
||||
|
||||
At this point, Shitadel would have had 5 days to meet that margin requirement (by liquidating other assets including crypto), or try to push down the stock price to a more manageable level.
|
||||
|
||||
Shitadel gets money back if the price goes lower than what the initial short sale value was
|
||||
|
||||
If the short sale value decreases (which is what the short seller was banking on) relative to what the share value was when the short sale was initiated, margin requirements also decrease, and they get money back.
|
||||
|
||||
So taking the initial example where Shitadel shorted 1,000,000 shares when it was at $40, if they were successful in dropping the price to $20, the margin requirement would have been $20 x 1m = $20m + 50% of $20m = $30m and they would have gotten $60m - $30m = $30m back. (whenever price falls, short sellers are required to have an additional 50% additional margin instead of the maintenance margin of 25-40% when price increases).
|
||||
|
||||
What does this all mean?
|
||||
|
||||
Well, it means that the margin call resulting in Shorts having to cover will only happen when the price of GME increases to the point Team shitadel would not be able to post the additional required collateral. This is not one magical price, but one that could be triggered in a domino effect, like countless DDs have speculated, where the smallest SHF gets forced to cover, share price increases, forcing the next SHF down the line to cover etc....all the way to the point where ALL SHORTs run out of funds to cover, upon which the responsibility goes to the lending broker, and then up the chain all the way to the DTCC and their insurance.
|
||||
|
||||
That's why we see them trying so hard to keep the price down so they can keep their collateral requirements "manageable", and days where the entire market (and crypto) are red because they need the liquidity to satisfy maintenance margin.
|
||||
|
||||
Short positions opened recently
|
||||
|
||||
The above examples all use shorts opened $40 and below. As we all know and speculate, team shitadel's also opened short positions ABOVE $40, but the concept still applies. They'd still have to post the collateral and maintain the margin requirements as and when the price fluctuates, and IF AND ONLY IF they can't meet that margin requirement, the collateral is used by the lending broker to go out to the market to buy a share back to close the position.
|
||||
|
||||
EDIT: The obligatory link that apes like. [See here](https://www.tdameritrade.com/retail-en_us/resources/pdf/AMTD086.pdf) - this document is from TD Ameritrade called the Margin Handbook and describes margin, margin requirements, and margin calls in detail.
|
||||
|
||||
EDIT2: [u/lvprentiss9](https://www.reddit.com/u/lvprentiss9/) asked a question in the comments about Melvin getting their $2b+ cash infusion. This gave me an interesting thought. We can estimate Melvin's short position as of that date. Not exact of course, just a ballpark to get a feel for what we're talking about here.
|
||||
|
||||
SPECULATION TIME
|
||||
|
||||
- After the trading day on Jan 25, Melvin reported receiving a cash infusion of $2.75 billion. The stock price closed at $76.79
|
||||
|
||||
- The previous closing price on Jan 22 (before the weekend) was $65.01. So between these two days , the collateral required for Melvin not to get margin called and default would have been whatever they already posted for collateral as of Jan 22 (when the price was $65.01) + $2.75 billion.
|
||||
|
||||
Jan 22 - the total collateral required would have been 1.3x 65.01x # shorted shares, or 84.513 x # of shorted shares
|
||||
|
||||
Jan 25 - the total collateral required would have been 1.3x76.79 x # shorted shares, or 99.827 x # of shorted shares
|
||||
|
||||
The above is assuming their lending brokers charged them 30% of the short sale value. could have been more, or could have been the FINRA minimum of 25%, but 30% is pretty standard. We don't care about when Melvin opened their position, or at how much...we just know that from Jan 22 - Jan 25, they had to increase their collateral or risk defaulting.
|
||||
|
||||
So Jan 25's 99.827 x # of shorted shares minus Jan 22's 84.513 x # of shorted shares = 15.314 x # of shorted shares. This is the delta that required that 2.75 billion cash infusion.
|
||||
|
||||
What do we get when we solve for # of shorted shares? 2.75 billion / 15.314 = 179,574,245.79 shares shorted.....Melvin alone shorted the entire float and the shares outstanding MANY MANY times over..... since then, since we know they didn't cover, there could only be MUCH HIGHER shares shorted....especially when you add in naked shorts and regular shorts from other short sellers! This is not even accounting for the January squeeze as it's before that, and they could have been required to post even more collateral, or it could have been the reason RH and others prevented buying...regardless, this is speculation across two data points..
|
||||
|
||||
Edit 3: BUT WAIT, that's just a little too optimistic. GME is likely not Melvin's only short position
|
||||
|
||||
Exactly - 179M shares shorted is very optimistic, but gives you an idea. For years, GameStop was the no-brainer go to for short sellers, so it would be reasonable to assume GME would constitute a large portion of a short seller's position. Let's look at more conservative numbers:
|
||||
|
||||
1. If GME was only 25% of Melvin's total short position at risk of default, then it stands to reason that the 2.75 billion cash infusion was not JUST for GME....if 25% of the 2.75 billion was flagged for GME (and the rest for all of Melvin's other short positions at risk of margin default), then (2.75 billion / 15.314)x25% = 44.89m GME shares shorted. Which is more than the float. We also know Melvin was not the only short seller. So imagine this, multiplied across the many short sellers and add in naked shorts... it's no wonder they only reported the maximum allowable short interest back then (140%) and tried to hide those numbers since.
|
||||
|
||||
2. If GME was 30% of Melvin's total short position at risk of default, that would be $53.87m shares shorted.
|
||||
|
||||
3. If GME was 50% of Melvin's total short position at risk of default, that would be $89.79m shares shorted.
|
||||
|
||||
That's why I've come to the conclusion that even though my numbers are ballpark and that there is a possibility that not all 2.75 billion was put towards the collateral maintenance specifically for GME as of that date (they definitely would have needed it during the jan spike), it'd still be f'in high!!!
|
||||
|
||||
DISCLAIMER - I've made assumptions in these calculations, but I believe the theory behind it is sound/reasonable. Let me know what you think! Of course, this is an estimate and doesn't account for things like the 2-5 day margin call response period, or what happened after jan 25th, or whether Melvin needed the 2.75b to cover other short positions that are not gme or planned to keep part of the 2.75b to do other fuckery.
|
||||
|
||||
TLDR: Margin calls do not necessarily guarantee shorts having to cover. This only happens when they can no longer fulfill their maintenance margin requirements. I ballparked Melvin's short position on Jan 25th using these formulas. it's between 44.89m if you're conservative, up to 179.5 m if you want to be very optimistic!!!! Remember, this is only Melvin's short position....factor in ALL the other short HF's positions, and naked shorts...and this, fellow apes, is also one of the reasons why I am pretty zen like when i see the price fluctuate - it does not matter what the price is now...as one day, they will need to cover all these shorts and then fellow apes, we'll party.
|
@ -0,0 +1,88 @@
|
||||
The tables will turn
|
||||
====================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/isnisse](https://www.reddit.com/user/isnisse/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/np3cyg/the_tables_will_turn/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
[Possible DD 👨🔬](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22Possible%20DD%20%F0%9F%91%A8%E2%80%8D%F0%9F%94%AC%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||
Introduction
|
||||
|
||||
For the longest time I have been looking into historic data regarding the lowest price and the highest price for each trading day the past couple of months. I can confirm with this possible DD? (Correct me if not.) that the tables are indeed turning into our favor sooner or later.
|
||||
|
||||
In this analysis I will focus on why the data is confirming a breakthrough in upward momentum soon. Judging by the graph it is easy to see that the price has seen forced negative price action by HF's. My data is showing that they have limited recourses to press the price down, and its very telling by comparing the lowest price of the day, to the highest price of the day by using exponential regression.
|
||||
|
||||
To put it short. The floor is increasing, and nothing had worked for the hedge funds (Whoops Sorry not sorry Ken).
|
||||
|
||||
Disclaimer:
|
||||
|
||||
1. It is likely that I make a lot of spelling errors in this post. Feel free to correct me. Feedback is very much appreciated.
|
||||
|
||||
2. I am not a professional data analyst, nor am I claiming my points as objective truth, I'm simply an ape that like the stock.
|
||||
|
||||
3. It is entirely possible that it turns out to speculation. It would not surprise me, since GME have a record to be unpredictable. But it is fun to speculate, nonetheless. I therefor ancourage you to take this post with a grain of salt. Use this as you wish.
|
||||
|
||||
4. Keep in mind that I'm a Europoor. I use a European version of excel, that's why you see ","s where "."s should be.
|
||||
|
||||
5. I'm not that good at exceptional regression.
|
||||
|
||||
Goal:
|
||||
|
||||
- I wanted to compare the lowest price to the highest price from each day since feb 19th to see when the breakthrough is going to happen.
|
||||
|
||||
- I'm using exponential regression and comparing when the breakthrough is going to happened.
|
||||
|
||||
- The breakthrough could maybe indicate that the hedge funds are drying up, and cant keep the price down anymore (I want to hear what you guys think as well, so we all can become smarter)
|
||||
|
||||
Data collection:
|
||||
|
||||
I used data from [Yahoo finance, GME history](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/GME/history/)
|
||||
|
||||
The reason I picked Feb. 19th as a start date is because it is the lowest the price since the spike in January (38.5$). I do not want to use pre-January data because it would not give a clear picture of the price suppression.
|
||||
|
||||
Since February 19th there has been 70 trade days (yes that long ago). As seen on the data and by looking at the graph it is easy to see that its not possible to push the price further down since then.
|
||||
|
||||
Outcast of the data:
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/44oo4fqzgg271.png?width=740&format=png&auto=webp&s=4c193dd9b6df07d9b66bae8d11ba8d0bcc3d6821)
|
||||
|
||||
I manually typed the numbers in. But I checked it twice and it seems like there aren't any typing errors.
|
||||
|
||||
Data input 1: Highest price for each day since Feb. 19th
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/ndacoud3hg271.png?width=2613&format=png&auto=webp&s=a7e5f212f9c22aec7cebff2ffee0e375eea45884)
|
||||
|
||||
It is a bit hard to see, but the floor is slowly rising exponentially, showing by the dotted line.
|
||||
|
||||
Important note: R^2 (a way to tell how reliable the numbers are) is only 0.2, i belive it is low because it indicate a organic upward momentum. Normal stocks are unprededible in their nature to some estenct. By looking into forced negative pressure it shows thats in not organic nor natural, therefor the R^2 regarding highest price for each day is closer to 1.
|
||||
|
||||
Data input 2: Lowest price for each day since Feb. 19th
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/w5zsp7h5hg271.png?width=2612&format=png&auto=webp&s=03bd2738196f6fd390a83dcfe90dc6fc4a6bbc04)
|
||||
|
||||
As seen, it is also rising at a steady pace, by a factor of 0.0038x more than the highest price for the day. Therefor the floor is getting closer and closer to the highest price. It indicates that we are keeping up regarding the forced negative price action.
|
||||
|
||||
Comparing data (Speculatory breakthrough date):
|
||||
|
||||
- "Highest" = From Highest price on x day
|
||||
|
||||
- "Lowest" = From Lowest price on x day
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/kuvl26ldig271.png?width=896&format=png&auto=webp&s=ad8e2ed65b9995cb78faacb7a1a3114dfdf722cc)
|
||||
|
||||
Datasets 1 and 2 + breakthough point
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/d29xspffhg271.png?width=543&format=png&auto=webp&s=4920baa7c6151b7b9ad3d4c5c0ddffecee54d535)
|
||||
|
||||
x = Day 78 y = Price
|
||||
|
||||
- Breakthrough = (78.28, 214.72)
|
||||
|
||||
As seen on the graph above it shows that the highest price will cross the lowest price on day x78, at price 214$. It indicate that the Hedge funds are drying up and cannot keep doing what they do.
|
||||
|
||||
Conclusion:
|
||||
|
||||
June the 10th is the day that the breakthrough is going to happen (accorting to exponential regression, dont take it as truth). It is day 78x as seen on the chart. The hedge funds do not have any more recourses to keep the price down and therefor the tables are turning into o
|
@ -0,0 +1,107 @@
|
||||
PRICE ACTION IS SHOCKINGLY similar to NOT ONLY the 2/24-3/10 runup, but also to the JANUARY run from $20 - $480. T+35 / T+21 elaboration.
|
||||
=========================================================================================================================================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/sharp717](https://www.reddit.com/user/sharp717/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nrud2r/price_action_is_shockingly_similar_to_not_only/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
|
||||
[Possible DD 👨🔬](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22Possible%20DD%20%F0%9F%91%A8%E2%80%8D%F0%9F%94%AC%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||
I'll start with the usual: I am not a financial advisor. I do not provide financial advice! Everything following this is opinion/observation. Much of my knowledge of the markets has been acquired through reading countless hours of DD posted by others in this sub.
|
||||
|
||||
I'm not one to buy into the echoed phrases of this sub... but I am in fact JaCKeD tO tHe TiTs!
|
||||
|
||||
OBLIGATORY - BuY & HoDl!
|
||||
|
||||
Now that that is out of the way, I would like to reference a few authors and their inspired DD that helped get me to this point of jacked tits. The below DD's are a must read if you have not already. I will attempt to summarize these briefly below.
|
||||
|
||||
[u/Criand](https://www.reddit.com/u/Criand/):
|
||||
|
||||
[1)](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/ngru15/the_flurry_of_rules_before_the_storm_dtc_icc_occ/) The flurry of rules before the storm. GME might be hitting T+35 and T+21 next week
|
||||
|
||||
[2)](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nqbera/things_are_shockingly_similar_to_the_february/) Things are shockingly similar to the February 24th and March 10th runup
|
||||
|
||||
[u/myplayprofile](https://www.reddit.com/user/myplayprofile/) - I Got What You Quant ([Link](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nqzo1o/i_got_what_you_quant_6221_trading_analysis_and_a/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3)) - this is just one of the authors DD's, but it goes into linear correlation which is now shifting to logarithmic correlation between GME & AMC prices. AND he explains how there is the possibility that AMC is being used by hedgefucks to hedge their GME losses.
|
||||
|
||||
_________________________________________________________________________________________________
|
||||
|
||||
This post is focused on [u/Criand](https://www.reddit.com/u/Criand/)'s DD, which enlightened me and many others as to what the fuck has been going on with the 21 day / 31 day FTD cycles.
|
||||
|
||||
Basically his DD ([1)](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/ngru15/the_flurry_of_rules_before_the_storm_dtc_icc_occ/)) is the most accurate hypothesis that we have to date regarding the FTD cycles, and DD ([2)](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nqbera/things_are_shockingly_similar_to_the_february/)) shows how this theory is now supported by the price action seen on May 25th and in the following days.
|
||||
|
||||
Key Points:
|
||||
|
||||
- He clarifies the confusion around why the standalone T+21 day FTD cycles, which have been shown to cause price surges, do not act the same way as they did during the $480 run and the $350 run.
|
||||
|
||||
- Explains how the Feb-March $350 run was caused by a dual event of T+35 & T+21 day FTD cycles occurring in close proximity to one another (back to back trading days)
|
||||
|
||||
- Notes that the Feb 24th initiation of the run up to $350 was exactly 10 days before we peaked at $350
|
||||
|
||||
- He references [u/yelyah2](https://www.reddit.com/u/yelyah2/)'s DD, which shows how gamma neutral spikes on day 1 of the $480 and $350 price run ups, returns to normal for about a week, and then spikes up massively again, initiating the January and February Gamma Squeezes
|
||||
|
||||
Below is my furtherment of [u/Criand](https://www.reddit.com/u/Criand/)'s work all in one concise graphic which feels oddly like a child to me right now. Not sure if that is just because I have not really written any DD's before.
|
||||
|
||||
Please click the image to view it blown up and actually take in what is being laid out for you with my lovely computer crayons which I swear to god I don't eat... EVER.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/v8tmo6hdi5371.png?width=1287&format=png&auto=webp&s=9a7e70813852641f29b2e57d8fc64ea7f7b83f77)
|
||||
|
||||
Transparent boxes represent the initiation of the combined T+35 / T+21 day price movements + 6 days (because it has only been 6 trading days since
|
||||
|
||||
Notes:
|
||||
|
||||
- I am not sure why I called the $480 and $350 price run ups in the visual "Micro Squeezes", but thats what came to mind. Perhaps gamma squeeze is more appropriate given [u/yelyah2](https://www.reddit.com/u/yelyah2/)'s recent DD?
|
||||
|
||||
- Yellow is micro squeeze 1
|
||||
|
||||
- Blue is micro squeeze 2
|
||||
|
||||
- Pink is the past 6 days
|
||||
|
||||
Alright folks. I have talked a lot about other peoples work, and given you a graphic. Now comes my value add.
|
||||
|
||||
Key observations:
|
||||
|
||||
- Not only was it a 10 trading day ramp up from the February 24th initiation to $350 on March 10th, but it was also EXACTLY 10 TRADING DAYS between the January 13th initiation to the $480 peak on January 29th. My reason for calling this out specifically is that it strengthens the theory surrounding the combined T+35/T+21 day price movements, and helps us further establish that we could potentially go PARABOLIC AGAIN 10 trading days from 5/25 on JUNE 9th. Will they be able to stop us this time? Maybe it doesn't even matter if the do... See my next points
|
||||
|
||||
- In the aftermath of the January "micro squeeze" the Dec-Jan price floor of ~$20 DOUBLED, and the new price floor was set at ~$40 between Feb 5th - 25th. In the aftermath of the Feb 24th - Mar 10th "micro squeeze" the price floor of ~$40 TRIPLED, and the new price floor was set at ~$120 between Feb 5-25. Given that the price floor doubled and then tripled after these two events, could we be expecting the new price floor of more than 3X $120? (That would be a price floor of $360+ for those of you who needed help there)
|
||||
|
||||
- Edit to previous bullet. A wise ape suggested I un-jack my tits a bit, and he makes a fair point that "We can't assume that since it doubled in January from $20 to $40 and tripled in March from $40 to $120 that therefore the next floor must be more than 3x $120. What if the rule in the sequence is +20->+80->+140? Or what if +20->+80->+20->+80?" I have included this just to explicitly state that my question "could we be expecting the new price floor of more than 3X $120?" by no means is intended to say the price floor WILL triple again. I feel like this is a good point to say that this is speculation and theorization based on observation and nothing more. None the less, I am jacked to the tits.
|
||||
|
||||
- The MACD line has literally only had significant crossovers ([golden cross](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/g/goldencross.asp#:~:text=What%20does%20a%20golden%20cross%20indicate%3F,under%20a%20short%2Dterm%20MA)) 3 times this year.
|
||||
|
||||
- Event 1, Yellow ($480 run)
|
||||
|
||||
- Event 2, Blue ($350 run)
|
||||
|
||||
- Event 3, Pink (May 17th - today)
|
||||
|
||||
Additionally, I have plotted trend lines for each of the events.
|
||||
|
||||
- Event 1 (Yellow) we saw a 10 day increase of roughly 1,733%
|
||||
|
||||
- Event 2 (Blue) we saw a 10 day increase of roughly 770%.
|
||||
|
||||
- 770 / 1733 = 44% or a 56% reduction in 10 day price increase, although the price was starting from a floor of $40 instead of $20.
|
||||
|
||||
- 44% of 770% would be 338% starting from $120 which would mean a peak price of ~$405 in event 3, IF this short pattern continues exactly the same.
|
||||
|
||||
- THIS PATTERN WILL NOT CONTINUE EXACTLY THE SAME.
|
||||
|
||||
- I am only observing the trend of the current pattern. The sample size here is literally 2 events, albeit 2 very unlikely "coincidental" events. And I don't believe in coincidence.
|
||||
|
||||
- The pattern will break for many reasons, but the main reason is that hedge fund manipulation literally cannot continue forever.
|
||||
|
||||
- Once they get margin called its off to the races, and hopefully this event is the straw that quite literally breaks the camels back (Kenny G, you are the camel)
|
||||
|
||||
Oh yeah... forgot about this one. LOOK AT THE VOLUME. ITS LITERALLY FUCKING INSANE. MEDIA IS PUSHING AMC, KOSS, ANYTHING OTHER THAN GME AND YET WE HAVE RUN UP FROM $132 (April 13th) TO $290 WITHOUT A SINGLE TRADING DAY VOLUME GREATER THAN 21 MILLION. WE SAW VOLUMES OF MORE THAN 150 MILLION IN JANUARY. WHAT THE ACTUAL FUCK.
|
||||
|
||||
Alright guys. To summarize. We could be looking at going parabolic again on June 9th based on the pattern identified by the authors I mentioned above. The price action and technical signals are bullish as fuck. I fucking love all you mother fuckers who are holding this thing, and I will be holding till we can change the world.
|
||||
|
||||
Last note. For dope technical analysis please check out the absolute man [Tradespotting](https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCI24I7XHA2yY4Fs-pVmplpA). I think this is his reddit [u/Frigerifico](https://www.reddit.com/user/Frigerifico/) and this is his [sub](https://www.reddit.com/r/tradespotting/). He's not some highly viewed bullshit youtuber. He's a genuine Scottish dude who is passionate as fuck about GME and is amazing at technical analysis. The dudes literally inspirational and will literally calm your fucking nerves about this whole thing. Literally.
|
||||
|
||||
Trust the process Apes. See you in the far reaches of space.
|
||||
|
||||
Edit: Formatting
|
@ -0,0 +1,128 @@
|
||||
Follow the crumbs. $GME exposed the meta.
|
||||
=========================================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :----: | :----: |
|
||||
| [u/bcRIPster](https://www.reddit.com/user/bcRIPster/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/user/bcRIPster/comments/labq6u/follow_the_crumbs_gme_exposed_the_meta/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
A friend of mine just sent this over to me. He's a noob and I'm a noob but in the true spirit of karma whoring for fake internet points I wanted to share and they said it's my funeral. Note we are both total retards, noobs and have no skin in the game cuz we too poor and can only afford plain popcorn, but we desperately want to see WSB succeed and Power to the Players! Do not take this as financial advice or god have mercy on your soul.
|
||||
|
||||
* * * * *
|
||||
|
||||
Uh guys... so we may see a crash that makes Enron look like a joke. There could be more than a short going on here, and more than firms pulling capital from other companies to cover.
|
||||
|
||||
I don't mean to go all conspiracy theory on you, but hear me out.... I think everything is going so off-the-rails not because of the short, but because Vanguard, Fidelity and BlackRock have sold more stock than exists. This is illegal (duh) but it has happened lots of times in the past. In fact, we didn't have real laws against it until 2008. We may see some bizarre moves if WSB doesn't sell, because some people need to hide some crimes. No joke. Here's why I think this may be the case:
|
||||
|
||||
---------- The Background ----------
|
||||
|
||||
Read this first to understand how naked shorts work:
|
||||
|
||||
<https://www.sec.gov/about/offices/ocie/options-trading-risk-alert.pdf>
|
||||
|
||||
Basically, to short a stock, you must "borrow" the stock from another account, usually something like a margin account. This is something that typically the clearing house does on behest of the fund doing the shorting. Most people don't even know when their shares are being borrowed by a hedge fund for the purposes of shorting.
|
||||
|
||||
A "naked short" is when you short a stock, but don't confirm that the stock you are borrowing actually exists. This can happen when a clearing house either purposefully or inadvertently (ahem, sure) lends the same stock more than once. This basically clones the stock, just like an item cloning glitch in a video game. There are now two copies of the same stock in existence being actively traded... at least temporarily. Hold that thought.
|
||||
|
||||
Naked shorts can be devastating to the company being shorted, as not only do they lose liquidity because of the short, the cloned stocks serve to dilute the value of the real stocks being held by artificially increasing the number of stocks being traded. Especially for small companies doing initial investment rounds, this practically guarantees bankruptcy: the diluted value limits the amount of capital they can raise, as the company never sees the cash from the cloned stock.
|
||||
|
||||
Now, after the 2008 crash the SEC in theory made this illegal. Obviously, this practice kills companies if the short succeeds or destroys markets if the short doesn't succeed. Either way, someone gets hurt.
|
||||
|
||||
HOWEVER, there's a catch: Because hedge funds and clearing houses are permitted to operate behind closed doors, the SEC can only detect a naked short when a "failure to deliver" occurs. When someone calls the short, either because of a buy or because someone withdraws the right to loan their shares, the person shorting then has 3 days to deliver. If they can't deliver the share (because it doesn't exist) within 3 days, then this gets reported as a "failure to deliver". Now, the SEC may look past a few of these because floats do happen, but too many and the SEC is obligated to open an investigation.
|
||||
|
||||
But of course, that never happens. The clearinghouse only has to report the net deliveries, not the actual transactions. This means that as long as there is someone buying on the day the failure-to-deliver would occur, the clearinghouse can roll the transaction forward... basically just like floating a check. The non-existent cloned stock is bought with the new buy, and the sell of real shares that should have covered that buy is left open but doesn't need to be fulfilled for three more days. The clock resets. This is sort of like somebody-I-know used to do by floating checks back and forth between two different bank accounts: keeping the money in the air for several weeks until payday by continually writing checks to cover checks. Super unethical, but does work.
|
||||
|
||||
But, this can't be continued indefinitely. There are SEC rules that make it tough to do this for longer than 21 days. IANAL, I don't know every loophole, but that's my understanding.
|
||||
|
||||
This is why after 2008 it became so important for the hedge fund to bankrupt the target company. If the company goes bankrupt, then the shares cease to be and the books never resolve. Even some kinds of restructuring can keep the books from resolving. It's still possible to cover this without bankrupting the company if you can get enough people to sell, but it's easier to crash the company and just make it all go away while pocketing cash from more shares than were ever real.
|
||||
|
||||
---------- The WSB Play ----------
|
||||
|
||||
Ok, now read this:
|
||||
|
||||
<https://seekingalpha.com/article/4370860-gamestop-short-squeeze>
|
||||
|
||||
This was basically the original WSB plan back from October. Don't worry about the plan... we know what's going on here already. Melvin Capital shorted by 140% which is more than the float. Gamestop had enough cash to cover debt so it seemed unlikely they would fail unless the hedge funds forced it to. Squeeze looks obvious when you lay it out that way.
|
||||
|
||||
BUT, there is one chart here that is super important when folks were trying to figure this out: look at the chart for institutional ownership!
|
||||
|
||||
<https://i.imgur.com/Jh5AI8V.png>
|
||||
|
||||
The top three names on that chart are Vanguard, Blackrock and Fidelity. As is suggested by the author, there is a strong likelihood that the top holders already loaned out all their shares to Melvin Capital. The shares had to come from somewhere, and this is the only place they could have come.
|
||||
|
||||
This is why some people thought this was a good move. Not just because there was a short, but because they could see that all the shares had already been "borrowed" which would force the hedge fund to buy at any price. There were simply no more shares available to option for any other kind of fuckery.
|
||||
|
||||
---------- The Expected Response ----------
|
||||
|
||||
Okay, so WSB made their move. And predictably Robinhood and a bunch of trading platforms cut the ability to buy GME. Seems obvious enough as a strategy to stem the bleeding, regardless of whether it is coming from Robinhood or, as they claim, the brokerage above them limiting trades for reasons. Whatever. Either way, this is an obvious response.
|
||||
|
||||
Likewise, there have been numerous pushes from the hedge funds to either convince WSB the positions are closed, or to convince them to change their position from GME to Silver.
|
||||
|
||||
Despite what the news is reporting, no one in WSB appears to be buying silver. Maybe someone is, but it ain't them. I did a site-wide search for silver, then pulled the post history for all the accounts that made the posts--of which there are shockingly few compared to what the news media is implying. The only accounts promoting this appear to be mostly bots: they became reddit premium within the last week, or they are necro accounts that have no posts for two or three years until suddenly dozens of silver related posts in the last few days. Conversely, there are been numerous long standing accounts warning others that these silver posts are bots.
|
||||
|
||||
None of this is unexpected. Bots and media manipulation have been par for the course for political bullshit for the last few years.
|
||||
|
||||
Boots on the ground, I have literally no idea where the news media is getting this story other than a change in silver pricing. I am not seeing any such discussion in related communities, and certainly none that pre-dates the news stories! To be fair and avoid conspiracy: I don't hang out on twitter. There are retail traders outside of Reddit, and perhaps the media is clumping multiple groups together and mistaking Twitter for Reddit. Wouldn't be the first time. Even on 4chan /b/ is not /pol/ and so on. People make that mistake all the time, so the misrepresentation may be entirely unintentional. I know the internet is a weird weird place and not everyone gets how it works.
|
||||
|
||||
The last expected response is the fact that many of the hedge funds bought new short positions, especially assuming that most of Reddit would sell on Friday. (Which they did not) There are additional short positions held that expect WSB to fold within the next week. This coincides with the news reports expecting people to try to collect their profits. Of course, many people don't intend to do that. They aren't worried about the profits they want to see hedge funds go down.
|
||||
|
||||
But all this movement leads to an obvious question: If there are no shares available to borrow, then what are they borrowing against for the short??
|
||||
|
||||
---------- Clearing Houses are Sus ----------
|
||||
|
||||
Okay, soooo.... We expect Wall Street to prevent buying GME, which they have; and to unleash bots to change sentiment, which they have; and to promote news stories to try to change the situation, which they have.
|
||||
|
||||
BUT, with all of this, there are two retail trading platforms that are still allowing GME trades: Vanguard and Fidelity. There is also one firm that started buying GameStop themselves five days ago: BlackRock. Sound like a familiar list?????? These are the firms that held the shares that the hedge funds were borrowing against to short.
|
||||
|
||||
Now, if all the funds are trying to stop the bleeding, WHY would these firms still allow trading when no one else is... much less start buying themselves?
|
||||
|
||||
Unless.... The shares DON'T EXIST.
|
||||
|
||||
You can't float a check between two accounts without writing another check. Someone needs to buy the shares in order to push the failure-to-deliver of the non-existent cloned stock into the future, otherwise the gig is up and the SEC finds out. If Vanguard and Fidelity become the only source for Redditors to buy from, then they can keep moving the doomsday clock forward. BlackRock can do the same thing by buying the stock themselves. Not as good a position, but not a lot of other choice if they need the books to read clean. Ok, someone with more experience than me can surely explain this better as there are some gotchas, but that's the basic gist.
|
||||
|
||||
More proof those shares don't exist? This academic paper from last year gives a clue:
|
||||
|
||||
<https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3673531>
|
||||
|
||||
Even if you own shares, you can't vote in a shareholder's meeting if your shares have been loaned out. Less than half of GameStop shareholders were eligible to vote by April of last year, with even fewer by August! There were so many shares borrowed SIX MONTHS AGO that it was affecting GameStop's ability to hold a quorum among shareholders.
|
||||
|
||||
Now the paper was only concerned about how short selling was affecting company's ability to administer. The idea that these were naked shorts never came up AFAIK. But knowing what we do now, this seems increasingly likely.
|
||||
|
||||
Also, for good measure beyond academia, this was in the news from last year:
|
||||
|
||||
<https://www.wsj.com/articles/how-investing-giants-gave-away-voting-power-ahead-of-a-shareholder-fight-11591793863>
|
||||
|
||||
If you look at the volume that WSB has bought since then, and the amount held in options, and the amount of shares that have been borrowed against in the last week or two as hedge funds have placed a second set of shorts... well... it sure looks like there are way more shares on the market THAN EXIST. Of course, without having the records from the clearing houses, AFAIK there's no way to know for sure. Only the SEC can do that.
|
||||
|
||||
I don't mean the bet WSB played... that Marvin had 140% of the FLOAT. I mean that Vanguard, Fidelity and BlackRock have sold more than the TOTAL SHARES that EXIST.
|
||||
|
||||
That's a completely different problem and it's punishable by jail time. Not a joke. It's basically counterfeiting stock shares, although that's not the terminology used. If this is true, who knows how many other times they've done this. Or maybe it's not true, and they just really like the stock??? If BlackRock started buying five days ago, and the longest they can likely do this is 21 days, then the doomsday clock doesn't run out until at least February 17th. If Wall Street can get WSB to sell before then, then they won't get caught and won't go to jail. But if they don't.... well, this will make Enron look like chump change.
|
||||
|
||||
If enough people hold until the end of February, and this is truly the situation, then there is a chance that major parts of Wall Street are going to IMPLODE.
|
||||
|
||||
---------- The Conclusion ----------
|
||||
|
||||
Apes need diamond hands until the end of February in order to get the SEC involved, most likely somewhere between Feb 17th - 19th. Whether or not this will happen is anybody's guess, but if it does all heck may break loose!
|
||||
|
||||
Wall Street will probably do everything in their power to prevent that. There are too many top players involved. Crazy moves are likely because stock brokers are smooshy and jail is uncomfortable.
|
||||
|
||||
This may effect the market. (Duh) Bloomberg may be correct, but not at all for the reasons stated. But, that said, I wouldn't panic if it does. I think it will be fine in the long run, but that's a whole other set of reasoning for another day.
|
||||
|
||||
Standard Disclaimer: This is not financial or legal advice. I am a retard and I have no idea what I am talking about. This is entirely speculation. :)
|
||||
|
||||
* * * * *
|
||||
|
||||
Edit: here is the link to my second attempt to post to [r/WSB](https://www.reddit.com/r/WSB/), maybe a mod can reverse the removal? The post still shows listed on my end: <https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/la9ms9/follow_the_crumbs_gme_exposed_the_meta/>
|
||||
|
||||
* * * * *
|
||||
|
||||
Edit 2: Ok so don't ask me for stock advice. I don't know stocks and neither does my friend. We both think holding is the right move but beyond that we don't know and could even be wrong about that. And furthermore I don't want this to come off like we're accusing these companies of nefarious deeds. We don't know what is going on. The data is sus. The activities are sus. Google is your friend and the post tries to list sources for the research. Do your own research though! For ducks sake this is a rando post on UserSub. I'm happy to see the love but this is a one shot research dump by someone who knows nothing about this topic.
|
||||
|
||||
* * * * *
|
||||
|
||||
Edit 3: [u/traveljg](https://www.reddit.com/u/traveljg/) has commented that Blackrock is on the record for selling not buying but I don't know enough about any of this to challenge the idea one way or another and my friend is off on some other crusade at this point so he's worthless for questions. This is why it is SUPER important that you do your own research and not take advice from a rando.
|
||||
|
||||
* * * * *
|
||||
|
||||
Edit 4: I'm not responding to chat requests. If you have comments make them on the post. What is wrong with you retards?
|
48
DD/2021-02-01-Lets-Talk-About-Options-Calls.md
Normal file
48
DD/2021-02-01-Lets-Talk-About-Options-Calls.md
Normal file
@ -0,0 +1,48 @@
|
||||
Let's talk about the GME $800 Calls for 2/5, 2/12, 2/19 and 3/19
|
||||
================================================================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :----: | :----: |
|
||||
| [u/PDX4](https://www.reddit.com/user/PDX4/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/lalnju/lets_talk_about_the_gme_800_calls_for_25_212_219/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
[DD](https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/search?q=flair_name%3A%22DD%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||
Okay fellow retards...time for some DD on the metric-fuckton of GME $800 call options for the above referenced expiration dates.
|
||||
|
||||
Obligatory I am not a financial advisor, just a smooth brain neanderthal.
|
||||
|
||||
I noticed a post earlier calling out the 3/19 $800 call options and the significant volume. I wanted to do some digging, below is my attempt to explain what *might* be going on. Constructive criticism and contrarian ideas are more than welcomed.
|
||||
|
||||
Let's start with the numbers...there were a total of 29,935 contracts of the GME $800 calls traded across these 4 expirations. This is compared to only 9,106 of open interest (for all you autists out there that don't know, the open interest aka OI is how many contracts were open through yesterday). Tomorrow morning will be interesting to see if the OI increases or decreases...this will help us understand if some of that volume was opening new positions or closing existing ones but regardless, many of them *have to be opening* *new contracts* since the volume is 3x the OI. Proof below.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/3ovlfm0r5ze61.png?width=1777&format=png&auto=webp&s=ac534b7e8fd03d8dc1b1ac3ff68e16e2773a5df6)
|
||||
|
||||
GME 2/5 $800 Calls
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/y9fov47t5ze61.png?width=1774&format=png&auto=webp&s=2b963e0f8e1a6edc6ab193cd64d7e9c6ffbe62aa)
|
||||
|
||||
GME 2/12 $800 Calls
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/4mui0z6x5ze61.png?width=1786&format=png&auto=webp&s=3937bb23e0bb7e2c1e74fcd9066817777d431c1b)
|
||||
|
||||
GME 2/19 $800 Calls
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/b21gob6z5ze61.png?width=1788&format=png&auto=webp&s=615555f4e98da988c49a89ea5991d6c7063ff7a9)
|
||||
|
||||
GME 3/19 $800 Calls
|
||||
|
||||
Why would there be so much volume today for the GME $800 calls across so many expirations? There's a lot of different reasons this could happen, let's conduct a process of elimination to hopefully follow Occam's Razor and see what is the most likely and/or most reasonable explanation. My first assumption is that hedge funds are responsible for the volume, too much $ for retail IMO. If I take the last price at market close of each contract and add it up, this is ~$57M...also note that these were all traded in small chunks throughout the day, no massive orders of 1,000 blocks or anything, largest is a hundred or so. They accumulated throughout the day so that $57M should be a conservative estimate. Perhaps these were traded in sweeps throughout the day to not get seen by option scanners?
|
||||
|
||||
I don't see a good reason why HF's would sell all these naked...could they collect premium on downward or flat movement of GME? Yes, but that seems like a poor method to do so since the delta stinks. It also exposes the seller to *massive* risk of having to sell shares should they end up ITM. It's like picking up pennies in front of a steamroller, just not worth the money...we know they don't have shares to sell, they need to buy shares to cover their shorts.
|
||||
|
||||
I also don't see why these would be covered calls where they own the underlying because DUH the whole point is they are trying to obtain shares of GME to cover.
|
||||
|
||||
If they weren't sold naked or covered, then they had to be bought, but why? Well...~$57M isn't *that* much when you're down billions so far on your shorts. If GME's price can be driven down through short ladder attacks from HF's to shake out weak paper handed bitches, through artificially suppressed retail demand by Brokers and their fuckery, and through the media's fear tactics, this means 2 *very important* things could be achieved: 1.) They can have GME's price be lower than it otherwise would to begin the squeeze en masse that they know is inevitable and 2.) they can recognize significant profit/hedging from their deep OTM calls options on the way up.
|
||||
|
||||
The HF's were caught with their pants down and have been given the luxury of time and support from external actors (Fuck you, RH IBBK TD and every other shady broker and the media) to get their ducks in a row. They are trying to engineer the squeeze *on their terms* to reduce their losses.
|
||||
|
||||
TLDR: There is a TON of GME $800 call volume across multiple strikes. Seems weird for them to be sold. Might be HF's plan to profit/hedge on way up once the real squeeze begins now that they have been able to grind GME down with short ladder attacks and artificially suppressed retail demand from asshole brokers.
|
||||
|
||||
Chime in my fellow Idiot-Savants!
|
@ -0,0 +1,148 @@
|
||||
How There is No Mathematical Way Shorts We're Covered for Jan 13th, 22nd, or 25th with GME's 69.75 Million Outstanding Shares
|
||||
=============================================================================================================================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :----: | :----: |
|
||||
| [u/President_Wolfe](https://www.reddit.com/user/President_Wolfe/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/ledjwa/how_there_is_no_mathematical_way_shorts_were/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
OC[DD](https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/search?q=flair_name%3A%22DD%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||
*EDIT: This post is meant as a mathematical (~Middle School Algebra) exercise regarding GME stock and shorts. The title itself is meant to be the literal end as intended, and describes how it would be impossible for all shorts (estimated) to be covered, closed and completely done and finished, with only using the available outstanding shares on the specific days stated. Please note that I have made no comments on possible options that HF's can/did use as* *I DO NOT HAVE THAT DATA!* *I have, hopefully, labelled the assumptions I made to do these calculations, and pointed out some general assumptions,more shorts mean more gains, sarcastically, that do not always appear to be true in the given data.*
|
||||
|
||||
These are just general findings, so chill the fuck out!
|
||||
|
||||
Please note that the below plots are all done using publicly available data from FINRA, Jan29th text file ( <http://regsho.finra.org/CNMSshvol20210129.txt>) Feb 5th text file (<http://regsho.finra.org/CNMSshvol20210205.txt>) regarding short volumes and Yahoo Finance for daily volume and GME daily prices.
|
||||
|
||||
I promise you the long read is worth it, but the TLDR version is at the bottom in Figure 9. The majority of the text is needed to inform a general audience of how an estimate of over 70 million shorts a day was reached. Please help out if there are any huge oversights, or wrong calculations, in the comments below, as I'm not responding to nearly any chats these days due to all the bots wanting me to either join an illegal conspiracy to raise the price of silver, or just shady as fuck.
|
||||
|
||||
Below is just a plot of the daily stock prices at the open and close of trading during regular hours for GME (source Yahoo Finance).
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/hm1mk6i09yf61.png?width=600&format=png&auto=webp&s=1bbe89497fafa8b1d449cf203c66ad2b62cbe111)
|
||||
|
||||
Figure 1: No real new information from this plot that everyone doesn't already know.
|
||||
|
||||
So as EVERYONE KNOWS, shorts can cause the price to rise in a given stock as the share of stock must be purchased, and with supply and demand, we aim for the heavens...
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/t8yyps5bayf61.png?width=600&format=png&auto=webp&s=e17249ce1c3e2349d7d082a2690d77bfa4a8c3ad)
|
||||
|
||||
Figure 2: Shorts and Short Exempts (note y-axis is in MILLIONS) as reported by FINRA during regular business hours.
|
||||
|
||||
So let's do a quick sanity check. Looking at Figure 2, we see that on Jan 13th, over 40 MILLION shorts were executed! So if we check Figure 1on Jan 13th, we should expect to see that the price increased, which it did.
|
||||
|
||||
Let's look at it a different way and plot the Closing Price minus the Opening Price to see just how much GME stock price changed each day.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/8dutm3frcyf61.png?width=600&format=png&auto=webp&s=458d804b49dea6f728ea29f3946a506a6ac2113b)
|
||||
|
||||
Figure 3: Overall change in stock price from open to close of GME.
|
||||
|
||||
This plot seems to be dominated by the wild changes in price during late January/early February, so let's do a normalization trick by taking the above values and dividing them by their respective opening price that day.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/iokqj1i4dyf61.png?width=600&format=png&auto=webp&s=533c7228e8ff52bbb6cc23fe7bc0a145f0716efe)
|
||||
|
||||
Figure 4: GME Price change relative to the opening price that day.
|
||||
|
||||
Now in Figure 4 we can see the change in price relative to what it was starting out on that day. Again we see that Jan 13th increased, by over 50% that day.
|
||||
|
||||
So let's make it easier for everyone and combine Figure 2 and Figure 5 to see both the total number of shorts executed, and the price change, for the same day.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/udf0do41fyf61.png?width=600&format=png&auto=webp&s=af67822fa65e5df33bf2b994c30602f7b8582904)
|
||||
|
||||
Figure 5: GME Price change relative to opening price, and the total number of shorts(both short and "short exempts") during Regular Business Hours, via FINRA
|
||||
|
||||
NOW WE GOT A PLOT! Here we see both the change in price AND the number of shorts being executed for a single day.
|
||||
|
||||
But what do we actually get from Figure 5? Jan 13th keeps with our hypothesis that MORE SHORTS MEANS MORE GAINS, but we don't see that across the board though.....?
|
||||
|
||||
Jan 13th, Jan 22nd, Jan 26th, and Feb. 5th all show gains in price, and large number of shorts...
|
||||
|
||||
22 days I tracked, and 11 of those days have over 10million shorts during regular business hours, but only 4 days have gains of 20% or greater, and only 3 of THOSE days have gains over 50%.....?
|
||||
|
||||
Eye Raise:
|
||||
|
||||
- Why hasn't GME reached the Moon with all the Rocket/Shorts Fuel yet?
|
||||
|
||||
-"The screaming cries of wallstreetbets"
|
||||
|
||||
Hmmmmm, ok, well maybe we should also compare the overall volume of GME also and not just the shorts. The HYPE was/IS real over GME, and the world took notice. Let's see how the volume changed with it.
|
||||
|
||||
First, just plot out the daily volume during regular business hours.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/8401qqamiyf61.png?width=600&format=png&auto=webp&s=308bf45b5b5f75766d96d57ca55bbee0b9c873eb)
|
||||
|
||||
Figure 6a: Regular Hours Daily Volume for GME, as reported by FINRA
|
||||
|
||||
Alright, what do we get out of this plot...? Well, from Jan 13th and onward the volume shot THROUGH THE FUCKING ROOF, compared to early January.
|
||||
|
||||
BUT WAIT A DAMN MINUTE?!?!?!?
|
||||
|
||||
I didn't hear about the GME Hype Train until mid to late January!? From what I can find googling it seems that most major news outlets didn't really report on WSB/GME until Jan 21st, with serious mentions coming around Jan 24th weekend.
|
||||
|
||||
General Assumption I'M MAKING:
|
||||
|
||||
Most of the actual "Retail Investors" didn't join GME until weekend after Jan 22nd.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/bxnpcbheuyf61.png?width=600&format=png&auto=webp&s=9fe167ab117d9d361f7f2926d85bc837319dcf33)
|
||||
|
||||
Figure 6b: Full Daily Volume as reported by Yahoo Finance for GME. Note that Figure 6a is contained within Figure 6b.
|
||||
|
||||
So, ASSUMING, the above, let's say the higher volume AFTER Jan 25th is from Urist McLossesMoney.
|
||||
|
||||
So what's with the crazy high volume before then? Is it from the insiders, the true chosen among us, the users in [r/wallstreetbets](https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/) that aren't bots?----->NOPE.
|
||||
|
||||
Almost certainly volume before Jan 22nd is from the hedge funds having to buy up the shorts they WAY THE FUCK overextended on! The "big bois" had to join us bottom feeders and buy up the stock to cover their 9000% short shares... maybe.
|
||||
|
||||
Anyway we can check something else that to shine some light into what happens during the dark hours of trading... After Hours Volume.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/dzjkv3zqlyf61.png?width=600&format=png&auto=webp&s=30b68bc546184bc5e079101a4c9d9d66b1955365)
|
||||
|
||||
Figure 7: Regular Hours Trading compared against After Hours Trading for GME
|
||||
|
||||
I DO LOVE PLOTS!!!! Here, I've taken the regular hours volume(again from FINRA) and subtracted it from the day's total volume, as reported by Yahoo Finance, to get the After Hours Volume. But again what stands out/what's the point of this plot?
|
||||
|
||||
After Hours Volume overtakes Regular Hours Volume Jan 22nd, and has remained where MOST of the action is going on!
|
||||
|
||||
GENERALLY, "Retail Investors" don't/CANT engage in after hours trading. And also, don't confuse what you do on your trading app at 2am with what broker-dealers and big bois are doing at 2am.
|
||||
|
||||
We see around Jan 13th, after hour volume went above 50million, my general dumbass guess is because HF's needed to buy shares to cover shorts, and the few following days thereafter.
|
||||
|
||||
Hmmmm. OK, let's take a step back and look shorts again....
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/kolo2hw7ryf61.png?width=600&format=png&auto=webp&s=da005e3f065d05341a1fa196c07c9b3b3523793b)
|
||||
|
||||
Figure 8: Percentage of Regular Hour Short Volume as a Percentage of Total Volume during Regular Hours.
|
||||
|
||||
Figure 8 just shows that over half of all volume, just during regular hours, are shorts. I don't know if there are numbers out there that show after hours shorts, if so PLEASE COMMENT IT!!!!!!
|
||||
|
||||
And because I can't get after hours short volume, we have to make a wild guess as to this next step.
|
||||
|
||||
So multiply Figure 8 by Figure 6b and you get.....
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/yscv7o1ssyf61.png?width=600&format=png&auto=webp&s=86594c24fa071bee2a7b7b2e25f607241c13e9b3)
|
||||
|
||||
Figure 9: Estimated the full daily short volume by multiplying the regular hours short ratio from Figure 8 by the whole daily volume reported by Yahoo Finance.
|
||||
|
||||
NOTE: Figure 9 is an estimate, but it's still a low-ball estimate.
|
||||
|
||||
ASSUMPTION --> Let's assume that after hours volume plays just like regular hours trading.
|
||||
|
||||
I STILL HIGHLY FUCKING DOUBT THAT AND WOULDNT BE SURPRISED IF AfterHoursVolume was higher than 75% of just shorts.
|
||||
|
||||
Still, let's roll with Figure 9. Looking at Jan 13th, we estimate the number of shorts executed was...over 76 MILLION!
|
||||
|
||||
And there are.... 69.75M shares outstanding... yep... ok... checks out!
|
||||
|
||||
TLDR: Go to Figure 9, NOTE THAT IT'S AN ESTIMATE(and a low one at that), and see how it's impossible that they covered their shorts (ON THOSE DAYS) see edit below.
|
||||
|
||||
Not financial advice, not advocating violence, not legal advice, just doing some math while my wife and her boyfriend watch The Crown.
|
||||
|
||||
Edit 1: Yes, title is a typo. "...Shorts WE ARE Covered..." smh
|
||||
|
||||
Edit 2: finra link seems to break for some with the https:// in the front, try it without and added direct links to text files. Also, no I did not include ways to cover shorts with options/bought/sold/traded/fails-to-deliver/NoExpirationShortsJustPayInterest/t+3/etc.... since I already threw a god-awful amount of text at you and literally pointed to exact dates and I don't have Bloomberg/L50Data...
|
||||
|
||||
Edit 3: Removed comment by request of user.
|
||||
|
||||
Edit4: And thanks to u/[jusmoua](https://www.reddit.com/user/jusmoua) for getting the post back up!
|
||||
|
||||
and Thank You Everyone For the Awards!
|
@ -0,0 +1,114 @@
|
||||
WSB deleted post about how the GME short report tomorrow can be manipulated with concrete history of past Melvin/Citadel fines...here's the archived version
|
||||
============================================================================================================================================================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :----: | :----: |
|
||||
| Re-posted by [u/cdgullo](https://www.reddit.com/user/cdgullo/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/comments/lfev5s/wsb_deleted_post_about_how_the_gme_short_report/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
EDIT: It may not be apparent that I am not the original writer of this DD. I have simply found the [archive.org](https://archive.org/) version of the deleted WSB post and reproduced it below. Neither I or the OP are financial advisors.
|
||||
|
||||
<https://web.archive.org/web/20210208143828/https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/lf5tkc/dd_how_the_short_interest_report_for_gme_and/>
|
||||
|
||||
There is also a post from a week ago on WSB about all the $800 calls on 2/12, 2/19 and 3/19 and why they might exist which I found pretty insightful (it has half the upvotes of this post despite being in a sub with almost 9 million people):
|
||||
|
||||
<https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/lalnju/lets_talk_about_the_gme_800_calls_for_25_212_219/>
|
||||
|
||||
This is the reproduced deleted post:
|
||||
|
||||
- Disclaimer 1: I'm a novice. I'm informing you of what I'm aware of, and what I know of. I would extremely appreciate it if commenters can post some DD or any related facts on the topic.
|
||||
|
||||
- Disclaimer 2: This is based on my current understanding, which may be incorrect. If you object to any of the points I make, please make them clear in the comments and state why.
|
||||
|
||||
- Disclaimer 3: I'm not a financial advisor, and this is my PERSONAL opinion.
|
||||
|
||||
- Disclaimer 4: This post is making the assumption that you already believe, or at least believe in the possibility, that hedge funds have not covered and the squeeze has not squoze. If you don't, just see the hundreds of DD's floating around on this topic. Here's the most recent one I read by [u/RubinoffButtChug69](https://web.archive.org/web/20210208143828/https://www.reddit.com/user/RubinoffButtChug69/)
|
||||
|
||||
[https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/ldjbg1/analysis_on_why_hedge_funds_didnt_reposition_last/?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share](https://web.archive.org/web/20210208143828/https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/ldjbg1/analysis_on_why_hedge_funds_didnt_reposition_last/?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share)
|
||||
|
||||
- Disclaimer 5: If you disagree and think the squeeze has squoze, then I really have no idea why you're wasting your time and energy reading this and posting negative comments with your paper hands.
|
||||
|
||||
In my DD below, I will post links to where I'm getting my information in the [1], [2], [3], [4], [5], etc; at the end of the sentence. Matching numbers means it's the same link.
|
||||
|
||||
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________
|
||||
|
||||
Some background information
|
||||
|
||||
> "FINRA requires firms to report short interest positions in all customer and proprietary accounts in all equity securities twice a month. " [[1]](https://web.archive.org/web/20210208143828/https://www.finra.org/filing-reporting/regulatory-filing-systems/short-interest#overview)
|
||||
|
||||
The next reporting date is Feb 09th. where data from January 15 - January 29th will be reported. This information must be sent to FINRA by February 02nd. [[1]](https://web.archive.org/web/20210208143828/https://www.finra.org/filing-reporting/regulatory-filing-systems/short-interest#overview)
|
||||
|
||||
This reporting is what nearly all other markets use as a reference point. For example, NASDAQ references the use of FINRA as the source of their short interest [[2]](https://web.archive.org/web/20210208143828/http://www.nasdaqtrader.com/trader.aspx?id=shortintpubsch)
|
||||
|
||||
> "Member firms that have short positions in OTC equity securities and in securities listed on a national securities exchange, such as NASDAQ, NYSE, NYSE American, NYSE Arca, Cboe BZX, and IEX, must file a Short Position Report with FINRA via the Web-based system" [[11]](https://web.archive.org/web/20210208143828/https://www.finra.org/filing-reporting/short-interest/regulation-filing-applications-instructions)
|
||||
|
||||
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________
|
||||
|
||||
What is my concern?
|
||||
|
||||
My concern lies with the potential of firms to inaccurately report their short interest levels to FINRA. From my understanding, it is the short investment firms that send these reports to FINRA, and not the company itself [Gamestop].
|
||||
|
||||
What is the reasoning behind my concern? It is the penalty/fines for frauding the short interest that is the issue. In the most simple terms: The amount fined is extremely low.
|
||||
|
||||
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________
|
||||
|
||||
Some examples of fines in the past:
|
||||
|
||||
> FINRA fines NOMURA $300,000 for violations of short interest [[3]](https://web.archive.org/web/20210208143828/https://financefeeds.com/finra-fines-nomura-violations-short-interest-reporting-requirements/)FINRA fines Barclays Capital Inc. $125,000 for failure to accurately report short interest positions[[4]](https://web.archive.org/web/20210208143828/https://financefeeds.com/finra-fines-barclays-capital-failure-accurately-report-short-interest-positions/)FINRA fines Morgan Stanly & Co. LLC $2 million for short interest reporting and short sale rule violations [[5]](https://web.archive.org/web/20210208143828/https://www.finra.org/media-center/news-releases/2015/finra-fines-morgan-stanley-2-million-short-interest-reporting-and-short)FINRA fines Oppenheimer $275,000 over short-interest reports [[6]](https://web.archive.org/web/20210208143828/https://www.finra.org/media-center/news-releases/2015/finra-fines-morgan-stanley-2-million-short-interest-reporting-and-short)FINRA fines Albert Fried & Company $27,500 for failing to report 28 short positions, totaling 8,757,100 shares [[7]](https://web.archive.org/web/20210208143828/https://www.finra.org/media-center/news-releases/2015/finra-fines-morgan-stanley-2-million-short-interest-reporting-and-short)
|
||||
|
||||
Slightly related:
|
||||
|
||||
> FINRA fines Citadel $700,000 for allegedly breaching FINRA Rule 5320: Prohibition against trading ahead of customer orders. And Rule 6460: Display of Customer Limit orders. [[8]](https://web.archive.org/web/20210208143828/https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-07-21/citadel-securities-fined-by-finra-for-trading-ahead-of-clients)FINRA fines Robinhood 1.25 Million for best execution violations related to customers' equity orders.[[9]](https://web.archive.org/web/20210208143828/https://www.finra.org/media-center/newsreleases/2019/finra-fines-robinhood-financial-llc-125-million-best-execution)FINRA fines Melvin securities $15,000 for failing to make, and keep an accurate trail balance, general ledger, and net capital calculation by failing to timely accrue liabilities for certain invoices [[10]](https://web.archive.org/web/20210208143828/https://www.finra.org/sites/default/files/publication_file/Disciplinary_Actions_January_2019.pdf) (found on page 3 of the link)
|
||||
|
||||
I hope you're starting to see the pattern here. These "fines" are just repulsively low in the grand scheme of the companies.
|
||||
|
||||
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________
|
||||
|
||||
How does this relate to GME?
|
||||
|
||||
If you haven't been living underneath a rock the past two weeks, you should know about all the market manipulation going on for GME. All the short ladder attacks against GME by hedge funds, all the media manipulation, the brokerages restricting GME orders and plummeting the price, the immense failure-to-deliver orders on GME; There's honestly way too much to list.
|
||||
|
||||
Hedge funds are spending millions, tens of millions, hundreds of millions, every single day for these strategies and to pay off the interest on their expired short interest and failure-to-deliver positions.
|
||||
|
||||
Do you really think they wouldn't pay a million-dollar fine in order to save billions on their short position?
|
||||
|
||||
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________
|
||||
|
||||
Get your tinfoil hats ready
|
||||
|
||||
A lot of people are waiting on the February 09th date to decide what to do with their GME stock positions. We will probably see the wildest price fluctuations on the 9th, whether it soars or plummets. I know, I know, most people here will HOLD GME to the god damn ground. But unfortunately, a lot of people are looking at the February 9th date to understand the situation.
|
||||
|
||||
And Hedge funds should know that.
|
||||
|
||||
They should be aware that, if the Feb 09th report is accurate, it will show their short-positions. It will rally the stock again, and it will soar to the moon. At that point, there isn't much they can do to manipulate the stock. Everyone will know they lied to the media about covering their positions, and won't believe a thing they say. Everyone will have moved on to a real brokerage by then and can execute trades again.
|
||||
|
||||
So why haven't they covered yet?
|
||||
|
||||
In my eyes, there are three possible reasons why they haven't covered their position yet.
|
||||
|
||||
1. They're waiting for the February 09th date. After the short interest report is released (and it inaccurately shows the low short-interest due to fraud) there will be a huge selloff in the next few days. They will probably cover their positions a few days/week after February 09th: as the GME stock will have had plenty of time to react and fall in light of news of the fraud short-interest. At some point, the increasing interest in their expired short-positions and failure to delivers will outweigh the decreasing GME stock, and they will cover. They would also want to sell this before FINRA catches wind of this, and publicly announces that there was fraud regarding GME short interest (I personally think it takes FINRA a while to discover these things, so don't count on it. But GME might be an exception they're eyeing due to all the attention surrounding it)
|
||||
|
||||
2. They're going to cover on February 08th, before the news is released. They will use everything they have left at their disposal, all the media attacks, the short ladders, EVERYTHING. They will bring the price as low as they possibly can, and close out their positions towards the end of the market day. If we see huge downwards movement tomorrow despite low volume, this is probably what is happening.
|
||||
|
||||
3. They are somehow clueless that the short-interest report on Feb 09th will cause a retaliation of the stock, and increase the volume. The stock will rise immensely within days, and they will be caught with their pants under their ass. The paper hands will again see their opportunity, and join back into the stock as the price keeps rising
|
||||
|
||||
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________
|
||||
|
||||
What should you do?
|
||||
|
||||
If the short interest report comes out, and you believe, based on your DD and research, that the short-interest levels simply don't match up to what they should be: You should HOLD.
|
||||
|
||||
HOLD through the crash. HOLD through the FUD.
|
||||
|
||||
The shorts will cover a few days/week after Feb 09th, and there will be a very indicative spike in volume and price. This will also probably be followed with momentary confused hype around the stock for a few days, further increasing the price. Keep an eye out for these days!!!
|
||||
|
||||
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________
|
||||
|
||||
TL;DR
|
||||
|
||||
There is a possibility the February 09th release of Short-Interest info will be fake, frauded. This is because the fine/penalty for reporting false information is EXTREMELY LOW (anywhere from 100k to 2 million on average in the past). Hedge funds will save BILLIONS by taking that measly 1 million fine. They already are spending millions every day on interest for their expired short and failure-to-deliver positions, short ladders, media manipulation, etc strategies.
|
||||
|
||||
Be prepared to HOLD through this. Expect them to cover their positions after a few days/week after the rising interest cost of their expired short position and FTD > the continued decreasing price in GME
|
||||
|
||||
At the very least, just read the "So why haven't they covered" part of my DD so you know what MIGHT happen in the next few days and what to do.
|
32
DD/2021-02-09-GME-and-AMC-Short-Interest-Data.md
Normal file
32
DD/2021-02-09-GME-and-AMC-Short-Interest-Data.md
Normal file
@ -0,0 +1,32 @@
|
||||
GME and AMC short interest data
|
||||
===============================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/missing_the_point_](https://www.reddit.com/user/missing_the_point_/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/lghaex/gme_and_amc_short_interest_data/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
|
||||
[DD](https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/search?q=flair_name%3A%22DD%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||
Finra, Fintel, and Wall Street Journal are reporting different percentages.
|
||||
|
||||
[Finra - GME](http://finra-markets.morningstar.com/MarketData/EquityOptions/detail.jsp?query=126:0P000002CH) -- Short Interest: 78.46\
|
||||
[Finra - AMC](http://finra-markets.morningstar.com/MarketData/EquityOptions/detail.jsp?query=126:0P00011H0G) -- Short Interest: 15.70 (some people have reported that it's not updating for them and they still see 38.12)
|
||||
|
||||
[Fintel - GME](https://fintel.io/ss/us/gme) -- Short interest % of Float: 44.02\
|
||||
[Fintel - AMC](https://fintel.io/ss/us/amc) -- Short interest % of Float: 68.48
|
||||
|
||||
[WSJ - GME](https://www.wsj.com/market-data/quotes/GME) -- Short interest % of Float: 41.95\
|
||||
[WSJ - AMC](https://www.wsj.com/market-data/quotes/AMC) -- Short interest % of Float: 66.06
|
||||
|
||||
Edit 1: As a post mentioned earlier today, Citadel has lied before about their short interest data. There is a small fine of, like, $149,000 for doing so. Paying the fine could save them billions of dollars, so it's possibly that all of the data is completely inaccurate.
|
||||
|
||||
Edit 2: Stop commenting that it's old data. We were waiting for data for the 29th. The reports are behind. This is the data that came out today, I assure you.
|
||||
|
||||
Edit 3: I usually use Fintel, not Finra, but I don't think some of the people commenting are right in assuming the Short Interest on Finra is the % of the float. Short interest ≠ Short Interest % of Float. They are different. Some other posts that recently updated are just throwing a % sign on there and saying it's % of float
|
||||
|
||||
Edit 4: Hedge funds, if you're reading this right now, go fuck yourself.
|
||||
|
||||
Edit 5: I've got about 750 shares of GME and a little over 8,000 AMC. I'm holding both. The discrepancies in the data across all these sites is all you need to know. To the moon 🚀🌒
|
131
DD/2021-02-11-ETFs-have-the-Biggest-Diamond-Hands.md
Normal file
131
DD/2021-02-11-ETFs-have-the-Biggest-Diamond-Hands.md
Normal file
@ -0,0 +1,131 @@
|
||||
The ETFs have the biggest Diamond Hands and went on a Buying Spree. GME Float is only 27 million shares!
|
||||
========================================================================================================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/diamondhandsbaby0](https://www.reddit.com/user/diamondhandsbaby0/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Wallstreetbetsnew/comments/lhiwhh/the_etfs_have_the_biggest_diamond_hands_and_went/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
|
||||
[DD](https://www.reddit.com/r/Wallstreetbetsnew/search?q=flair_name%3A%22DD%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||
I am not a financial adviser, this is not financial advice.
|
||||
|
||||
I have a theory:
|
||||
|
||||
The sudden increase in the share price, and therefore market cap, has triggered dozens of ETFs and Index Funds to automatically buy shares in GameStop at the market price. In the process, they have discovered they have diamond hands.
|
||||
|
||||
These funds are tracking the market, so once a company reaches a certain size, they must include them as part of the fund (as long as fits the other criteria as well). GameStop all of a sudden crossed that threshold.
|
||||
|
||||
I think the funds hold shares closely. They could be "locked up" for a certain time and therefore an argument could be made they no longer count towards the float. This is because the public will not be able to buy them for an extended period. The float only counts shares that can be publicly traded on the stock market.
|
||||
|
||||
You could say that the ETFs have Diamond Hands. They hold them so closely they're no longer on the float!
|
||||
|
||||
Background: the float has been reported to be 50 million shares widely for a while. Recently, there has been an exception for MorningStar, which puts the float at ~27 million. I also believe this is the number that FINRA has based its short interest % on, because it works out exactly. ([see my post on that](https://www.reddit.com/r/Wallstreetbetsnew/comments/lhdylm/gamestop_short_interest_and_floats/))
|
||||
|
||||
These are the numbers from MorningStar, note the size of the Float.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/que46dcz8ug61.png?width=479&format=png&auto=webp&s=88d0b013d6e46a5b6a32796427300aedc75e1655)
|
||||
|
||||
Source: https://www.morningstar.com/stocks/xnys/gme/quote
|
||||
|
||||
Here is some evidence to back up this theory:
|
||||
|
||||
Table of Shares that are "closely held", compiled from public records.
|
||||
|
||||
Note the filing dates in bold. You will notice a lot of new buys around the very end of January, precisely when the share priced rocketed and market cap was very high.
|
||||
|
||||
"Diamond Hands"
|
||||
|
||||
| Owner | Shares | Type | Filing Date | Source |
|
||||
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
|
||||
| RC Ventures | 9,001,000 | Ryan Cohen | 1/10/21 | Gamestop IR |
|
||||
| Fidelity Intrinsic Opportunities Fd | 6,801,757 | Fund | 10/31/2020 | [Finra](http://finra-markets.morningstar.com/MarketData/EquityOptions/detail.jsp?query=14%3A0P000002CH&sdkVersion=2.58.0) |
|
||||
| iShares Core S&P Small-Cap ETF | 3,621,031 | ETF | 1/28/2021 | Finra |
|
||||
| Fidelity Low-Priced Stock Fund | 2,000,679 | Fund | 10/31/2020 | Finra |
|
||||
| Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund | 1,468,071 | Index Fund | 12/31/2020 | Finra |
|
||||
| iShares Russell 2000 ETF | 1,361,091 | ETF | 1/28/2021 | Finra |
|
||||
| DFA US Small Cap Value Portfolio | 1,121,503 | Fund | 11/30/2020 | Finra |
|
||||
| Vanguard Extended Market Index Fund | 817,863 | Index Fund | 12/31/2020 | Finra |
|
||||
| Vanguard Strategic Equity Fund | 703,551 | Fund | 09/30/2020 | Finra |
|
||||
| Vanguard Small Cap Index | 634,259 | Index Fund | 12/31/2020 | Finra |
|
||||
| iShares Russell 2000 Value ETF | 595,041 | ETF | 1/28/2021 | Finra |
|
||||
| DFA US Targeted Value Portfolio | 559,288 | Fund | 12/31/2020 | Finra |
|
||||
| Vanguard Tax Managed Small Cap Fund | 519,077 | Fund | 12/31/2020 | Finra |
|
||||
| iShares S&P Small-Cap 600 Value ETF | 456,921 | ETF | 1/29/2021 | Finra |
|
||||
| DFA US Small Cap Portfolio | 452,337 | Fund | 12/31/2020 | Finra |
|
||||
| Schwab Fundamental US Large Company ETF | 432,351 | ETF | 1/29/2021 | Finra |
|
||||
| Schwab Fundamental US Large Com Idx Fd | 417,240 | Index Fund | 12/31/2020 | Finra |
|
||||
| Invesco FTSE RAFI US 1000 ETF | 384,841 | ETF | 1/31/2021 | Finra |
|
||||
| Fidelity® Small Cap Index Fund | 373,056 | Index Fund | 10/31/2020 | Finra |
|
||||
| Vanguard Small Cap Value Index Fund | 360,565 | Index Fund | 12/31/2020 | Finra |
|
||||
| EQ/Morgan Stanley Small Cap Growth Port | 350,679 | Fund | 11/30/2020 | Finra |
|
||||
| FERNANDEZ RAUL J | 29,289 | Director | 1/19/2021 | [Finviz](https://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=GME) |
|
||||
| VRABECK KATHY P | 79,537 | Director | 1/15/2021 | Finviz |
|
||||
| Dunn Lizabeth | 57,258 | Director | 1/15/2021 | Finviz |
|
||||
| Wolf Kurt James | 91,000 | Director | 1/14/2021 | Finviz |
|
||||
| Sherman George E Jr | 1,127,762 | CEO | 4/17/2020 | Finviz |
|
||||
| Bell James A | 242,596 | EVP & Chief Financial Officer | 4/17/2020 | Finviz |
|
||||
| Koonin Steven R | 25,271 | Director | 4/15/2020 | Finviz |
|
||||
| Total | ~34 million | | | |
|
||||
|
||||
As you can see, the evidence very much supports this theory.
|
||||
|
||||
The rough numbers for our calculated Float, so far, based on numbers above:
|
||||
|
||||
Float = Shares Outstanding - "Restricted" Shares
|
||||
|
||||
Float = 70 million - 34 million
|
||||
|
||||
Float = 36 million so far, much lower than the 50 million float reported around town.
|
||||
|
||||
Only 9 million shares away from MorningStar's number of 27 million. I'm think I'm missing a lot of ETFS with smaller buys. NASDAQ have a comprehensive list, but that will take a bit of time as it is a lot of small transactions.
|
||||
|
||||
TLDR: The ETFs have the biggest diamond hands of any of us and went on a buying spree.
|
||||
|
||||
Let me know what you think.
|
||||
|
||||
Edit: Check the owner activity from Finra
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/anbpcwwievg61.png?width=638&format=png&auto=webp&s=5c5bc1cfc543ef5eb7cfcea77fd623e7cfc6493a)
|
||||
|
||||
Source: http://finra-markets.morningstar.com/MarketData/EquityOptions/detail.jsp?query=14%3A0P000002CH&sdkVersion=2.58.0 (2/11/2021)
|
||||
|
||||
Update 2:
|
||||
|
||||
Look which Funds and Institutions have been Buying!
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/9dy3aif1gvg61.png?width=678&format=png&auto=webp&s=226115f2d52e6b3a52bd626810b4d431d7ce1b87)
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/9lvs77bxgvg61.png?width=633&format=png&auto=webp&s=ab2f16e293afd18e974655293e6ddc55207b9a15)
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/3mpb1po2gvg61.png?width=603&format=png&auto=webp&s=82479db15f7cbbe56f64a46e87a1c69b3e25ea52)
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/0tbdq0xygvg61.png?width=594&format=png&auto=webp&s=f63084139f9e9f43b82c323821ee63c100e04b41)
|
||||
|
||||
They also list the ones selling!
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/tpb2tiqkivg61.png?width=643&format=png&auto=webp&s=f7efb32cb493ee491de413db88ff24ae8b331fcb)
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/5f5upr8dlvg61.png?width=620&format=png&auto=webp&s=a1de0b9ccb23735c232613cf7cd058761a3a56fd)
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/uyrjp6anivg61.png?width=609&format=png&auto=webp&s=e01214466fc0f72223b79c63d7f4b363ded460d9)
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/8ju0y0foivg61.png?width=622&format=png&auto=webp&s=b8368b6cc7d07a2076513991077414e52c2cfd71)
|
||||
|
||||
Update 3: found something called "Concentrated holdings". Recent dates.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/t8sujprpovg61.png?width=630&format=png&auto=webp&s=3bde5c603584b3e2515fe0055de8fa1474d1fabc)
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/6875mlsqovg61.png?width=620&format=png&auto=webp&s=6911abb592c70927c6d6c5b6b253e4d009655924)
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/6627b67sovg61.png?width=615&format=png&auto=webp&s=542d3f15e81d2ba4cd7f5ac8bd07bfd4ec192e6c)
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/m0gp1hqtovg61.png?width=618&format=png&auto=webp&s=42cd7da38ab885fea5ef44a5484ae775453addfe)
|
||||
|
||||
Source: <http://finra-markets.morningstar.com/MarketData/EquityOptions/detail.jsp?query=14%3A0P000002CH&sdkVersion=2.58.0>
|
||||
|
||||
I am not a financial adviser, this is not financial advice.
|
||||
|
||||
Disclosure: I own GameStop shares.
|
139
DD/2021-02-11-GameStop-Short-Interest-and-Floats.md
Normal file
139
DD/2021-02-11-GameStop-Short-Interest-and-Floats.md
Normal file
@ -0,0 +1,139 @@
|
||||
GameStop: Short Interest and Floats
|
||||
===================================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/diamondhandsbaby0](https://www.reddit.com/user/diamondhandsbaby0/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Wallstreetbetsnew/comments/lhdylm/gamestop_short_interest_and_floats/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
|
||||
[Discussion](https://www.reddit.com/r/Wallstreetbetsnew/search?q=flair_name%3A%22Discussion%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||
I am not a financial adviser, this is not financial advice.
|
||||
|
||||
Discussion
|
||||
|
||||
Why is MorningStar stating the float to be only ~27 million shares?
|
||||
|
||||
Edit: I have theory that ETFs have the Biggest Diamond Hands and went on a Buying Spree. See my new post about that: <https://www.reddit.com/r/Wallstreetbetsnew/comments/lhiwhh/the_etfs_have_the_biggest_diamond_hands_and_went/>
|
||||
|
||||
Link to MorningStar data: <https://www.morningstar.com/stocks/xnys/gme/quote>
|
||||
|
||||
It is widely reported that the Shares Outstanding for GME is about ~70 million shares.
|
||||
|
||||
Therefore, is it the case that only ~39% of the company shares are available for the public to buy and sell? Calculation: ( 27 / 70 ) * 100
|
||||
|
||||
If it is indeed the case, this puts an incredible amount of power into the hands of retails investors, in my opinion. This is because as ~61% shares are restricted or "locked up", the short sellers would not be able to buy them back as they are not available to be traded publicly.
|
||||
|
||||
The short sellers would need to buy back ~21 million shares and there are only ~27 million shares available on the market. If retail investors hold and don't sell, the short sellers have got big problems. Really big problems. The limited supply will drive up the price, and the very act of buying back the shares on the limited market will continue to push the share price up higher and higher.
|
||||
|
||||
Notes
|
||||
|
||||
Please keep in the mind the numbers are a bit stale, we're not dealing with perfect information. It is also possible that some numbers have not been reported correctly.
|
||||
|
||||
--- The boring but important stuff ---
|
||||
|
||||
*Definitions*
|
||||
|
||||
Shares Outstanding - The total number of shares in the company. This changes over time, as companies can issue new shares to raise capital, among other things. Yes, this dilutes the values of your shares. The company can also buy back shares, which increases the value of your shares.
|
||||
|
||||
Float - The number of shares that are available for the public to trade on the stock exchange. There are certain shares that are restricted for public trade, which is why the Float is smaller than the Shares Outstanding.
|
||||
|
||||
Example of restricted shares: a company employee has shares that are "locked up" for 3 years. The employee owns them, but cannot sell them for 3 years, therefore they cannot be publicly traded.
|
||||
|
||||
The exact classification of which shares count towards the float, and which don't, depends on who you ask. This is a cause for large discrepancies in short interest numbers.
|
||||
|
||||
Short Interest - The number of shares that have been 'short sold' i.e. shares that have borrowed and sold with a promise to return the borrowed shares at a later date
|
||||
|
||||
Short Interest % - could be one of two definitions, make sure to clarify
|
||||
|
||||
1. Short Interest % of Shares Outstanding = ( Number of Short Sold Shares / Shares Outstanding ) * 100
|
||||
|
||||
2. Short Interest % of Float = ( Number of Short Sold Shares / Float ) * 100
|
||||
|
||||
*Why different numbers are flying around*
|
||||
|
||||
Let's put this knowledge into action and use it to explain the difference between MorningStar's short interest numbers and WSJ's short interest numbers:
|
||||
|
||||
MorningStar's Short Interest
|
||||
|
||||
Short Interest % of Float = ( Shares Short / Float ) * 100
|
||||
|
||||
Short Interest % of Float = ( 21.41 Mil / 27.29 Mil ) * 100
|
||||
|
||||
Short Interest % of Float = 78.45%
|
||||
|
||||
Note the Float is only 27.29 Mil - this is important, we'll come back to that later
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/z7dyzgit2sg61.png?width=479&format=png&auto=webp&s=76cebbecbe12ec4c25ff9ea2aedd5d3ac20d9e7a)
|
||||
|
||||
MorningStar's SI numbers: https://www.morningstar.com/stocks/xnys/gme/quote
|
||||
|
||||
Wall Street Journal's Short Interest
|
||||
|
||||
Short Interest % of Float = ( Shares Short / Float ) * 100
|
||||
|
||||
Short Interest % of Float = ( 21.41 Mil / 51.03 Mil ) * 100
|
||||
|
||||
Short Interest % of Float = 41.96%
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/1o9ddkz44sg61.png?width=221&format=png&auto=webp&s=cfe840f7d74c91f8765d7efb94caf4550cf2f34a)
|
||||
|
||||
WSJ SI Numbers: https://www.wsj.com/market-data/quotes/GME
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/inlvx72t4sg61.png?width=104&format=png&auto=webp&s=d73e4c70b17ddc7ef8191f8ff2f617462f9d58f3)
|
||||
|
||||
Explanation
|
||||
|
||||
In both reports, the number of shares sold short is 21.41 million. However, MorningStar states the float is 27.29 million, while the Wall Street Journal states the float is 51.03 million.
|
||||
|
||||
I am not a financial adviser, this is not financial advice.
|
||||
|
||||
Disclosure: I own shares in GameStop. I am long on GME.
|
||||
|
||||
Update:
|
||||
|
||||
Table of Suspected "Restricted" Shares [in progress - please comment more]
|
||||
|
||||
| Owner | Shares | Type | Filing Date | Source |
|
||||
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
|
||||
| RC Ventures | 9,001,000 | Ryan Cohen | 1/10/21 | Gamestop IR |
|
||||
| Fidelity Intrinsic Opportunities Fd | 6,801,757 | Fund | 10/31/2020 | [Finra](http://finra-markets.morningstar.com/MarketData/EquityOptions/detail.jsp?query=14%3A0P000002CH&sdkVersion=2.58.0) |
|
||||
| iShares Core S&P Small-Cap ETF | 3,621,031 | ETF | 1/28/2021 | Finra |
|
||||
| Fidelity Low-Priced Stock Fund | 2,000,679 | Fund | 10/31/2020 | Finra |
|
||||
| Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund | 1,468,071 | Index Fund | 12/31/2020 | Finra |
|
||||
| iShares Russell 2000 ETF | 1,361,091 | ETF | 1/28/2021 | Finra |
|
||||
| DFA US Small Cap Value Portfolio | 1,121,503 | Fund | 11/30/2020 | Finra |
|
||||
| Vanguard Extended Market Index Fund | 817,863 | Index Fund | 12/31/2020 | Finra |
|
||||
| Vanguard Strategic Equity Fund | 703,551 | Fund | 09/30/2020 | Finra |
|
||||
| Vanguard Small Cap Index | 634,259 | Index Fund | 12/31/2020 | Finra |
|
||||
| iShares Russell 2000 Value ETF | 595,041 | ETF | 1/28/2021 | Finra |
|
||||
| DFA US Targeted Value Portfolio | 559,288 | Fund | 12/31/2020 | Finra |
|
||||
| Vanguard Tax Managed Small Cap Fund | 519,077 | Fund | 12/31/2020 | Finra |
|
||||
| iShares S&P Small-Cap 600 Value ETF | 456,921 | ETF | 1/29/2021 | Finra |
|
||||
| DFA US Small Cap Portfolio | 452,337 | Fund | 12/31/2020 | Finra |
|
||||
| Schwab Fundamental US Large Company ETF | 432,351 | ETF | 1/29/2021 | Finra |
|
||||
| Schwab Fundamental US Large Com Idx Fd | 417,240 | Index Fund | 12/31/2020 | Finra |
|
||||
| Invesco FTSE RAFI US 1000 ETF | 384,841 | ETF | 1/31/2021 | Finra |
|
||||
| Fidelity® Small Cap Index Fund | 373,056 | Index Fund | 10/31/2020 | Finra |
|
||||
| Vanguard Small Cap Value Index Fund | 360,565 | Index Fund | 12/31/2020 | Finra |
|
||||
| EQ/Morgan Stanley Small Cap Growth Port | 350,679 | Fund | 11/30/2020 | Finra |
|
||||
| FERNANDEZ RAUL J | 29,289 | Director | 1/19/2021 | [Finviz](https://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=GME) |
|
||||
| VRABECK KATHY P | 79,537 | Director | 1/15/2021 | Finviz |
|
||||
| Dunn Lizabeth | 57,258 | Director | 1/15/2021 | Finviz |
|
||||
| Wolf Kurt James | 91,000 | Director | 1/14/2021 | Finviz |
|
||||
| Sherman George E Jr | 1,127,762 | CEO | 4/17/2020 | Finviz |
|
||||
| Bell James A | 242,596 | EVP & Chief Financial Officer | 4/17/2020 | Finviz |
|
||||
| Koonin Steven R | 25,271 | Director | 4/15/2020 | Finviz |
|
||||
| Total | ~34 million | | | |
|
||||
|
||||
Rough numbers for our calculated Float, so far, based on numbers above:
|
||||
|
||||
Float = Shares Outstanding - "Restricted" Shares
|
||||
|
||||
Float = 70 million - 34 million
|
||||
|
||||
Float = 36 million so far, much lower than the 50 million float reported around town. Only 9 million shares away from MorningStar's number of 27 million
|
||||
|
||||
Theory: The ETFs have the biggest Diamond Hands and went on a Buying Spree. See my new post about that: <https://www.reddit.com/r/Wallstreetbetsnew/comments/lhiwhh/the_etfs_have_the_biggest_diamond_hands_and_went/>
|
@ -0,0 +1,102 @@
|
||||
DD: I did the math, there is literally NO DOUBT that we own >100% of the remaining float (could be up to 1000% or even more), SHARE THIS ! 🚀
|
||||
=============================================================================================================================================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/InForTheSqueeze](https://www.reddit.com/user/InForTheSqueeze/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/comments/m7x2gq/dd_i_did_the_math_there_is_literally_no_doubt/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
[DD](https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/search?q=flair_name%3A%22DD%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||
Okay fellow apes, listen up, here is some fresh DD straight out of the oven to feed your confirmation bias. 🚀
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/jlivhj2mttn61.png?width=454&format=png&auto=webp&s=1aa1145e82687682b56b14ab315fbb0734d47e30)
|
||||
|
||||
actual footage of me feeding my confirmation bias
|
||||
|
||||
I stumbled across [this sweet little screenshot from eToro](https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/comments/m7r42a/everyone_on_etoro_is_long_on_gme/) posted by [u/kapein](https://www.reddit.com/u/kapein/) which shows that 9.11% of all eToro users are holding GME. (Update as of 30/03/2021: still standing at 9.02%)
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/oqd5jj2prtn61.png?width=386&format=png&auto=webp&s=0bd0a24b23e1da28f023594848891bd3a781bb46)
|
||||
|
||||
credits to u/kapein
|
||||
|
||||
So i thought to myself, why don't we take this percentage and try to get an estimation about how many apes in total are holding GME right now and see where some variables regarding shares per ape get us. Are you exicted? Because I AM, LETS GO! 🚀🚀🚀
|
||||
|
||||
I spent the last hour(s) or so researching the largest broker firms and gathered their total user numbers. This list is by far not complete which means that the % held by retail investors could be way way (!) higher than my estimates. Please let me know if you have access to more brokers data and i will update my list.
|
||||
|
||||
Some friendly ape posted a statement from neo-broker Wealthsimple, thats states a GME-ownership of [up to 14%](https://www.wealthsimple.com/en-ca/magazine/gme-data) (!) of their total users. Therefore I made assumptions regarding the share of users that invested in GME for each broker. For neo-brokers like eToro, Robinhood, Revolut and WeBull I went with an average of 10% GME ownership of all users. (*EDIT 3: Also included a scenario for only 5% GME-ownership, as some raised concerns that my 10% assumption may be too optimistic.)*
|
||||
|
||||
Of course we have to consider that the average eToro user might have a higher risk tolerance and is more likely to invest in GME compared to average Joe. So for "classic" brokers that are more known for "passive investing" like Vanguard or Schwab I went with a lower share of users that are invested in GameStop. Some brokers from the Nordics report an ownership of [around 1.5% - 2.0%](https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/comments/m7x2gq/dd_i_did_the_math_there_is_literally_no_doubt/grebfmc?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3) of their users.
|
||||
|
||||
From the godlike [Due Diligence](https://iamnotafinancialadvisor.com/Current-DD/) that is around since yesterday I took the total remaining float that is accessible to retail investors, which is only 19.3m shares. *(The rest is in hands of "single" shareholders like Ryan Cohan, BlackRock, etc..)*
|
||||
|
||||
Okay, now that we have a vague feeling of how many GME retail investors we are, lets play with some scenarios.
|
||||
|
||||
Scenario 1: GME-ownership of 10% for neo-brokers and 1.5% for classic investment platforms:
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/eb99z717i8o61.png?width=1170&format=png&auto=webp&s=75a7195987db9ed41b8407eaa0c1e3cacc56a627)
|
||||
|
||||
% of remaining float that is held by retail (Scenario 1)
|
||||
|
||||
Scenario 2: GME-ownership of 5% for neo-brokers and 1.5% for classic investment platforms:
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/i8fahnkgi8o61.png?width=1170&format=png&auto=webp&s=0849de187deb52bafb8604c8566def34cb819714)
|
||||
|
||||
% of remaining float that is held by retail (Scenario 2)
|
||||
|
||||
As you can see above, if the average ape is holding only 5 shares, we would own more than 150% of the total remaining float. Even in Scenario 2, which is more conservative, it is more than 125% (!). To be honest i believe that the average ape holds not only 5 shares. There is a good chance that this numbers is more like 25+ shares per ape. Some fellow ape made a comment where he calculated an average of [40 shares](https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/comments/m7x2gq/dd_i_did_the_math_there_is_literally_no_doubt/grebfmc?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3) per invested user for his broker. I know, i know, there are a lot of apes that only hold 1 or 2 bananas or even fractional shares, but dont forget that there are real retail whales like [u/deepfuckingvalue](https://www.reddit.com/u/deepfuckingvalue/) or [u/HeyItsPixel](https://www.reddit.com/u/HeyItsPixel/) who own thousands, ten-thousands or even hundred-thousands shares! If we estimate 25 shares for the average ape, we would own around 800% (!!!) of the entire remaining float. Thats just fucking insane! There seems to be a ton of synthetic and counterfeit shares around.
|
||||
|
||||
Even if there are plenty catalysts, that are still open and likely possible, a share callback from GameStop should send us to Andromeda and beyond.
|
||||
|
||||
I am literally shaking writing this down. We are about to make history!
|
||||
|
||||
MELVIN AND SHITADEL WILL FUCKING EXPLODE! THERE IS NO WAY OUT! 🚀🚀🚀
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/wzqwxg1s4vn61.png?width=453&format=png&auto=webp&s=17f4324686bb3fde2911574f86051e24e7e376c2)
|
||||
|
||||
retail whale has entered the chat
|
||||
|
||||
IMPORTANT: If you have access to more detailed data regarding number of users or even GME-ownership for a specific broker, please let me know via dm. There are too many comments here and it's hard to keep track of all of them. And please add your source (link or screenshot) so I can publish this here as well.
|
||||
|
||||
EDIT 1: Made some amendments regarding assumptions for GME ownership, divided into neo-brokers and classic brokers. Added multiple brokers from CA, EU and UK. Please let me know if you are missing a broker and have the respective data about GME-ownership and/or total users for that broker.
|
||||
|
||||
EDIT 2: Many brother (and sister) apes from Australia and New Zealand reached out to me. Special thanks to [u/wawa-weewa](https://www.reddit.com/u/wawa-weewa/) who provided me with data for the brokers Sharesies & Hatch. According to these both brokers GME ownership is 3.60% and 2.00%. (Source ~~not~~ confirmed, ~~will add once~~ [available here](https://www.interest.co.nz/personal-finance/108826/thousands-nzers-partake-gamestop-movement-sharesies-users-alone-make-20)).
|
||||
|
||||
EDIT 3: [u/eoinythegod](https://www.reddit.com/u/eoinythegod/) pointed out that my assumptions of Revoluts 12m investors might be misleading as Revolut also provides standard bank accounts. Unfortunatly there is no reporting about trading-only accounts for Revolut, so i guesstimated that around 10% of all Revolut users might use the trading option. If you should have more detailed data, please let me know. Also included a second scenario where only 5% of neo-brokers hold GME (which is very low imo, but some users raised concerns that my 10% assumption might be too optimistic).
|
||||
|
||||
THIS OVERVIEW WILL BE UPDATED ON A REGULAR BASIS!!
|
||||
|
||||
*(no financial advise in any way)*
|
||||
|
||||
TL;DR:
|
||||
|
||||
There is no way that retail holds less than 100% of the remaining float, the actuals number might be much (!!!) higher, maybe even in the 1000%+. Buckle up, because this rocket is about to enter fucking lightspeed! 🚀🚀🚀
|
||||
|
||||
Sources:
|
||||
|
||||
<https://www.fidelity.com/about-fidelity/our-company>
|
||||
|
||||
<https://about.vanguard.com/who-we-are/fast-facts/>
|
||||
|
||||
<https://www.brokerage-review.com/online-brokers/largest-online-brokers-by-size.aspx>
|
||||
|
||||
<https://fortune.com/2021/02/02/robinhood-stock-trader-revolt-webull-alternative-china-app/>
|
||||
|
||||
<https://www.businessofapps.com/data/revolut-statistics/>
|
||||
|
||||
<https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20180911005141/en/Merrill-Edge-Hits-200-Billion-in-Assets-Under-Management>
|
||||
|
||||
<https://www.comdirect.de/cms/ueberuns/de/presse/monatszahlen-april-2020.html>
|
||||
|
||||
<https://www.interactivebrokers.eu/de/?f=564>
|
||||
|
||||
<https://flatexdegiro.com/en/company/who-we-are>
|
||||
|
||||
<https://finanz-szene.de/digital-banking/trade-republic-duerfte-schon-um-die-500-000-kunden-haben/>
|
||||
|
||||
<https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Freetrade>
|
||||
|
||||
<https://www.wealthsimple.com/en-ca/magazine/gme-data>
|
||||
|
||||
<https://www.interest.co.nz/personal-finance/108826/thousands-nzers-partake-gamestop-movement-sharesies-users-alone-make-20>
|
@ -0,0 +1,136 @@
|
||||
Mythbuster DD: Can you set the price for your shares?
|
||||
=====================================================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/BinBender](https://www.reddit.com/user/BinBender/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/comments/mhjfee/mythbuster_dd_can_you_set_the_price_for_your/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
[DD 📊](https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/search?q=flair_name%3A%22DD%20%F0%9F%93%8A%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||
In this episode of *'The Mythbusters'* we will dive into one of the most repeated myths in this sub: "You get to set the price!"
|
||||
|
||||
The myth goes:
|
||||
|
||||
"Since the short interest is above 100%, there are more shares that need to be bought back than there are shares in existence, which means you can sell YOUR share(s) at any price you want."
|
||||
|
||||
If this myth is true, you can hold a single share and be a millionaire! Or why not a billionaire? Or trillionaire?
|
||||
|
||||
But is it really that simple? Stay tuned to find out!
|
||||
|
||||
(Or skip to the TLDR at the end...)
|
||||
|
||||
Does a short interest above 100% mean there are more shares that need to be bought back than there are shares available?
|
||||
|
||||
Listen fellow apes, I know we would love this myth to be true. But my momma-ape told me that if something sounds too good to be true, it usually is. So we need to do some digging.
|
||||
|
||||
But to look into this, we need to really understand how shorting works.
|
||||
|
||||
The first thing we need to understand is that when a share is sold short, someone is actually buying the share, but nobody is actually selling it! (At best, somebody lent the short seller their share, and knew it would be sold short, but they still own it through a contract with the short seller.) This means that if someone sells 10M shares short, there will be 10M more shares on the market, that are now owned by somebody. This is true regardless of whether the shares were borrowed first (conventional and legal shorting), or sold through naked shorting (which is illegal, but possible through loopholes).
|
||||
|
||||
This is complicated stuff, so I'll try to simplify it as much as possible with an example.
|
||||
|
||||
> Anna lives in Norway, but owns a house worth 10 million dollars in the Cayman Islands where she spends her vacation every June. Dick is a greedy bastard, and in September he heard a rumor that a hurricane might hit the Caymans very soon, which would definitely destroy Annas property. Dick knows this guy, Ben, who would really love to own a house in the Caymans to go there on vacation in June, and he would gladly 10M for it. Dick thinks that if he sold the house to Ben now, he could buy the house back from him after the hurricane , and earn a lot of money, as it will be worth very little after the hurricane hits (if it even exists anymore). Problem is, Dick doesn't own any house in the Caymans he can sell. But greedy as he is, he still sees a way to pull this scam off: Dick pays Anna to borrow the deed for the house, and signs a contract that she can get it back anytime she wants, then Dick sells the deed to Ben. The result is that both Anna and Ben go bragging to their friends about how they own a house in the Caymans. And they are both right! They both really DO own that house. Ben has the deed, and Anna has a contract saying she can get the deed back anytime she wants.
|
||||
>
|
||||
> Dick feels invincible, and since he is a complete Dick with a capital D, when Charles comes and asks if Dick has a house for him in the Caymans as well, so he can go there in June, Dick says "Sure!", and does the same once more, by paying Ben a rent to borrow the deed, signing a contract he'll get it back when he wants, and selling the deed to Charles. (Or maybe he even skipped borrowing the deed, and just signed a contract with Charles saying he would get the deed soon? Doesn't really matter.) And boom, there are three people who all (rightfully) consider themselves owners of that one house in the Caymans.
|
||||
>
|
||||
> Dick is very pleased with himself, leans back, and waits for that hurricane to hit.
|
||||
>
|
||||
> But more and more time passes by, June approaches, and there is no hurricane ! In fact, weather reports are great, and a successful advertising campaign has created a high demand for houses in the Caymans, and the house Dick sold twice for 10M is now worth 15M! This means Dick now has to pay 30M to buy the house back twice.
|
||||
>
|
||||
> Now his bank comes knocking on his door. He had 15M from before, made 20M from selling the house twice, and has paid 2M in rent for the deed to Anna and Ben. He now only has 33M left in his bank account, with an obligation to get the deed back to both Anna and Ben. If this goes on, he simply won't be able to buy that house back twice. But June is approaching, and Anna, Ben and Charles are all preparing to go on vacation. Dick is screwed...
|
||||
|
||||
In this example, the single deed for the house is the "shares outstanding". The short interest is a staggering 200% of the shares outstanding (the deed has been sold twice).
|
||||
|
||||
But are there more shares that need to be bought back than there are shares available?
|
||||
|
||||
In this scenario it doesn't really matter if it is Anna, Ben or Charles who has the real deed. They can all choose to sell it to Dick. This means Dick has to buy two deeds, and there are *three* deeds on the market.
|
||||
|
||||
So even with a 200% short interest of the shares outstanding, there are still more shares on the market than need to be covered.
|
||||
|
||||
> With his tail between his legs, Dick asks Anna, Ben and Charles at which price they would be willing to sell the house.
|
||||
>
|
||||
> Anna loves that house, and says she will only sell it for 30M. Ben sees that Dick is screwed, but is more than happy with a 100% profit, and only asks for 20M. Charles heard on Reddit that he gets to set the price, so he promptly says 1 billion!
|
||||
>
|
||||
> Dick buys the house from Anna and Ben. He empties his bank account of 33M, and his bank has to chip in another 17M to pay Anna and Ben a total of 50M, and then all obligations are resolved. Charles ends up with the house, and Anna and Ben end up with 30M and 20M, respectively.
|
||||
>
|
||||
> Charles now has the option to either keep the house, or sell it at fair market value (15M) and earn 5M from his original investment. He could keep it because he likes the house, or because he speculates that the market price will rise more, even without a short squeeze. But Charles did not get to sell the house at any price he wanted, like he thought he would.
|
||||
>
|
||||
> The problem for Charles was that there was enough shares available for Dick to cover his position without Charles' share, even with a short interest at 200% of shares outstanding.
|
||||
|
||||
The fact is that short selling increases the number of shares on the market! In general, the total number of shares owned by anyone equals the shares outstanding (shares originally issued) PLUS the shares sold short. (This is one of the main arguments to allow short selling, to increase the liquidity of the stock market by increasing the number of shares available on the market, a ridiculous argument if you ask me.)
|
||||
|
||||
For GME, the shares outstanding is 70M. Say that 100M shares have been sold short. If the float is 50M, the short interest is then at 200% of the float (or 143% of the shares outstanding). With 100M shares sold short, there is now a total of 170M shares owned by insiders, institutions, funds, ETFs and retail. Let's say that the 20M shares *not* included in the float are held by insiders, and will never be sold, no matter the price. Unless the shares sold short were sold to someone who will never sell them, the "shares available on the open market" is now increased by 100M! The available shares is then 150M, 50M from the original float, and another 100M sold short. And if all shares are recalled, only 100M of those 150M shares must be bought back.
|
||||
|
||||
The myth that there are more shares that need to be bought back than there are shares in existence is actually:
|
||||
|
||||
BUSTED!
|
||||
|
||||
Unless!
|
||||
|
||||
I'm not trying to spread FUD, only to educate us. But the fact is that if you, like Charles, is the only one setting a ridiculous price target, that target will never be reached. Charles actually held the entire float, but it was still not enough. But in this example, *he was on his own.*
|
||||
|
||||
That is what makes GME unique! We are in this together! (Apes together strong!) I have read several people suggest retail may in fact own more than the entire float. If that is the case, and if all of us diamond hand, and simply refuse to sell, the "shares available in the open market" is then actually less than the shares sold short. And in that case, we CAN set our price!
|
||||
|
||||
If most apes sell at 1k, we won't climb above that. If all apes hold to 10M, we will get there!
|
||||
|
||||
A word of caution:
|
||||
|
||||
This only lasts as long as we continue to hold more than the entire float. If people start to sell off their entire positions, we may quickly reach a situation where this is no longer the case, and the peak will be reached. So when you *do* decide to start selling, do so SLOWLY! If we reach your price target, sell ONE share at a time! Give other apes time to sell as well, and wait to see if we can climb even higher! Multiple DD's have explained that the price won't ever plummet in an instance, so take your time! The squeeze may last for days, even weeks! But be prepared for some turbulence! The price won't plummet at the first sign of a dip, it may just be a whale exiting, before the climb continues!
|
||||
|
||||
NEVER PANIC SELL!
|
||||
|
||||
What if we don't own the entire float, or paper hands hold much of the float?
|
||||
|
||||
We have no reliable source telling us how many shares are held by retail, so we cannot know whether we own the entire float or not. Even if we did, we would not get any real-time updates during the ride to Andromeda, to tell us how many who had already paperhanded. All we know is that the price WILL skyrocket!
|
||||
|
||||
The peak will ultimately be determined by good ol' supply and demand. But we know there will be a HUGE demand and low supply!
|
||||
|
||||
- If the short interest is 100% of the float, 1 out of every 2 shares, MUST be bougth back.
|
||||
|
||||
- If the short interest is 200%, 2 of 3 shares MUST be bougth back.
|
||||
|
||||
- If the short interest is 900%, 9 of 10 shares MUST be bought back.
|
||||
|
||||
The price WILL skyrocket, but the peak will be decided by the collective market (not by you and me alone).
|
||||
|
||||
> In the exmple with Anna, Ben and Charles, the peak was reached at 30M, the asking price of Anna (the long whale in the example). Ben could have gotten a lot more than Anna, if he hadn't paperhanded at 20M. But Ben was only able to get 20M because Charles asked for more.
|
||||
|
||||
There are many more actors in our GME situation than in that simple example, but the principle is the same. For a price to be reached, enough actors must ask for even more, and paper hands will reduce the peak.
|
||||
|
||||
We must at some point accept that the peak is reached, even if we have not reached our personal price target. But how far the rocket goes depends on the number of shares available on the open market, which you and I contribute to! The available shares are reduced by every share held by diamond hands! However, the peak also depends on (but is NOT solely determined by) the actions of long whales, like how much it will take for BlackRock to sell off their *millions* of shares.
|
||||
|
||||
We can learn a lot from the infamous [Volkswagen squeeze](https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/comments/mgya1f/minidd_the_volkswagen_squeeze_tldr_and_key_lessons/). The short interest was at 12% of shares outstanding, but Porshe held 74% of the shares, and the state of Lower Saxony held another 20%, leaving the float at less than 6%, and the short interest was thus over 200% of the float. This was enough to rocket the price from €200 to €1000, before Porsche decided to release 5% of the shares to the market, to bail out the short sellers, and effectively end the squeeze. The price still stayed at around €500 for several days, before SLOWLY declining, and it took a MONTH before the price got down to €300. (There are several aspects of this situation that does not apply to GME, the most obvious that no single owner holds anywhere near that much of GME stock, and the short interest compared to shares outstanding is a lot higher for GME, so there is no chance for a bail-out like that. But there is still a lot to learn from that situation, imho.)
|
||||
|
||||
TLDR
|
||||
|
||||
The myth is (mostly) busted, because, for every share sold short, the float is also increased by 1. BUT for every share held by diamond hands, the float is *reduced* by 1.
|
||||
|
||||
We can only truly "set the price" if we collectively hold the entire float.
|
||||
|
||||
If we don't hold the entire float:
|
||||
|
||||
- The price will still skyrocket, but the peak will be determined by supply and demand.
|
||||
|
||||
- By holding shares, we reduce the supply, and will contribute to a higher peak.
|
||||
|
||||
- Paperhands will reduce the rocket fuel, and ultimately the peak price.
|
||||
|
||||
- The peak also depends on the long whales, and if their hands are made of paper or diamonds.
|
||||
|
||||
No matter what, once GME skyrockets, and you do decide to sell, do so SLOWLY, not all at once! The squeeze will last for DAYS, maybe even weeks!
|
||||
|
||||
Conclusion
|
||||
|
||||
BUY AND HODL! 💎🙌
|
||||
|
||||
It really is that simple.
|
||||
|
||||
* * * * *
|
||||
|
||||
Edit:
|
||||
|
||||
I'm getting some comments about leavig out naked shorting, though I did mention it in my post. The point is that it really doesn't matter if the shares were sold naked, or borrowed first. The result is the same, all shares sold short must be covered, sooner or later.
|
||||
|
||||
Keeping up the trickery to avoid Failure To Deliver's from naked shorting is getting trickier and more expensive as time goes by, so I believe this will accelerate the launch, but I don't think it will affect the peak price. Only the sellers determine the price.
|
@ -0,0 +1,48 @@
|
||||
Institutional ownership and Short Interest. Proof that Hedgies are in deep shit.
|
||||
================================================================================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/tacosformysadness](https://www.reddit.com/user/tacosformysadness/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/mofkra/institutional_ownership_and_short_interest_proof/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
[DD 👨🔬](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22DD%20%F0%9F%91%A8%E2%80%8D%F0%9F%94%AC%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||
Ok, I'm just gonna get right into the meat and potatoes. I am not an expert. I'm not a financial advisor. I'm quite a smooth brain and I'm putting my thoughts out there to learn more than anything. Please correct me on any mistakes I am making. But given my knowledge, this is what I see. **Also note I wrote this to share my thoughts with family members and friends who arent involved in this (yet!) so forgive some of the oversimplifications of some parts and over-explaining of others*
|
||||
|
||||
Between the top to index funds containing GameStop and the top ten institutions holding shares, the % of total shares held is already at 214.93% (PLEASE see edit 1 for a correction of this claim), or OVER A HUNDERED AND FIFTY MILLION SHARES. With the total number of shares held by the company and not put out for sale equaling about 20 million of the 70 million total of the company, only 50 million shares should be held by outside investors and able to be actively traded. Ownership by institutions and mutual funds is already triple this (FIRA data taken from <https://finra-markets.morningstar.com/MarketData/EquityOptions/detail.jsp?query=126%3A0P000002CH&sdkVersion=2.59.0>).
|
||||
|
||||
<https://preview.redd.it/yuwobuhdjfs61.png?width=482&format=png&auto=webp&s=bc499b64117c67fc702831fcf8d34023ea0468d2>
|
||||
|
||||
<https://preview.redd.it/4cks6y2gjfs61.png?width=459&format=png&auto=webp&s=0ad2f67a16c0fd3b087270df1cce7e1b1d0323eb>
|
||||
|
||||
Not only does the price reveal the falsified nature of the reported short interest (the fines for lying about this are pennies in comparison to what they have to lose), but also has some incredible implications for the magnitude of the squeeze.
|
||||
|
||||
Where do these shares come from? Hedge funds writing NAKED SHORT CONTRACTS in which they sell a shorted share despite it not actually existing or being held by the fund. This allows them to drive stock prices down by diluting the market and has long been a scummy tactic for making a quick buck by shorting a stock, driving the price down, and profiting off the dip. They have been using these same tactics to try and shake investors off of GameStop. It has fortunately not worked and now they are in deep shit. This number of shares held by institutions alone (which doesn't even account for the mass of retail investors who have been religiously picking up shares over the past few months) implies at least a 200% short interest. That is a historic level and, given that it only accounts for the top to mutual funds and institutions, is likely much lower than the actual number. THAT'S INSANE and if this thing ever gets off the ground the price could go up tens, even hundreds of thousands of dollars within a matter of days or even hours. This is a powder keg waiting to explode and hedge funds long on the stock (who believe the price will go up and are on the side of the squeeze) are doing everything they can to make it happen. It honestly just seems like a matter of time.
|
||||
|
||||
Price Dips:
|
||||
|
||||
As of the last trading day, April 9th 2021, the price of GME dropped approximately $12 a share. Normally, price drops of this magnitude indicate selling from investors exiting their position on the stock. These drops also have a psychological effect in which people panic sell to exit a falling position.
|
||||
|
||||
So, what was the buy/sell ratio of Gamestop by retail investors? OBVIOUSLY, a day this far in red would both be caused by, and cause, people to sell off their shares? Right??
|
||||
|
||||
Well, if we take a look at Fidelity, an investment platform for retail traders, Gamestop had a 5 to 1 buy/sell ratio. For every sell transaction input to the broker, approximately 5 buy orders were placed. That's incredibly impressive even on a green day, but downright insane on a day this far in the red.
|
||||
|
||||
<https://preview.redd.it/tl4kb0f1kfs61.png?width=624&format=png&auto=webp&s=3d54be3eb7e94ab25957b848ad0f24f930dcb1e7>
|
||||
|
||||
This shows two things:
|
||||
|
||||
1. The price drops are not caused by people selling their shares.
|
||||
|
||||
2. The price drops are not having the desired effect of shaking off investors.
|
||||
|
||||
Hedge funds short on the stock have multiple ways to drop the stock, either by selling further naked shorts or other, more complicated methods. It's highly unlikely that these dips are the result of anything other than this manipulation. Fortunately, they aren't working, and if anything, are just digging the hedge funds into an even deeper hole once they are forced to cover.
|
||||
|
||||
Media Misinformation and Corruption:
|
||||
|
||||
Checking the news evidently gives a very bleak outlook on the Gamestop situation, with articles for months reading "Forget about Gamestop", "Gamestop is over, check these stocks out instead", "Retail investors Burned by GME pump and dump" etc. They have been saying this is over since the first squeeze. They said it was over right before GameStop soared again all the way up to 350/share last month. They do not cover any positive news on Gamestop, and even spin the positive progress towards transforming the company in a negative light (when certain executives resigned and were replaced by hard hitting ecommerce leaders handpicked by Ryan Cohen, most media outlets painted the departure as them jumping from a sinking ship rather than the incredibly positive change for the company it actually is). They have proven, time and time again, that they are not on the side of truth but on the side of the wealthy investors trying to cover their own asses by filtering what sort of content is published by the media outlets they have so much sway over. The research speaks for itself. I believe that a hell of a lot more than the unsupported, uncited, hit pieces that try to divert attention from the mess Melvin Capital and Citadel (and friends) have gotten themselves into. As indicated by the buy/sell ratios on retail investment platforms, so do most investors. People are not falling for this. Most retail investors are simply buying our time and waiting for the inevitable catalyst that sends us into space. By bombarding investors with constant waves of Fear, Doubt, and Uncertainty, they have only hardened our resolve and proved the lack of weight behind their words.
|
||||
|
||||
TLDR: I like the stock. If you like the stock just HODL. Cracks are forming on the short side and this thing is primed for liftoff.
|
||||
|
||||
EDIT1 please read: It has come to my attention that there are repeated institutions and funds on the FINRA data. While I believed in the legitimacy of the data and assumed these were slightly different from each other (that happened to share similar names), it is now clear that the data itself is flawed in that it reports multiple entries for firms like Fidelity and Blackrock. HOWEVER, if we recalculate these values while eliminating duplicates, we still end up with ownership of 59,815,466 shares, which is equivalent to about 85% of the total shares and 132% of the float. While not the home run value I reported previously, this is still incredible news. Keep in mind that this is just the top 10 (or really top 6 after removing duplicates) institutions and we already have ownership of more than 100% of the float. Including smaller institutions and what I suspect to be a further 100%+ ownership by retail, this stock is still primed for the ride of a lifetime.
|
90
DD/2021-04-15-GME-DD-Cheat-Sheet.md
Normal file
90
DD/2021-04-15-GME-DD-Cheat-Sheet.md
Normal file
@ -0,0 +1,90 @@
|
||||
The GME DD Cheat Sheet
|
||||
======================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/ayyyybro](https://www.reddit.com/user/ayyyybro/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/mre9ma/the_gme_dd_cheat_sheet/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
[DD 👨🔬](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22DD%20%F0%9F%91%A8%E2%80%8D%F0%9F%94%AC%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||
[The MOASS is Inevitable](https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/comments/mjo3jj/the_moass_is_inevitable/). It's no longer a question of if, just when.
|
||||
|
||||
Here is a cheat sheet to get you through the FUD when this takes off. The most important thing to remember here is that Apes have the data to back the thesis.
|
||||
|
||||
It will be a bumpy ride, but the DD here will make it easier:
|
||||
|
||||
Look back over things they've done to scare you into selling...
|
||||
|
||||
- [FUD](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/mnjqpw/dont_forget_what_they_did_a_running_list_of_fud/)
|
||||
|
||||
- [Market Manipulation](https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/comments/mqyp5w/now_is_the_time_to_stay_ready_a_running_list_of/)
|
||||
|
||||
And yet Apes [still](https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/comments/mcw74g/even_yesterday_there_was_a_31_buysell_ratio_on/) [have](https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/comments/mebvks/daily_fidelity_update_buysell_ratio_still/) [diamond](https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/comments/mo0qp2/buysell_ratio_is_51_on_fidelity_apes_buying_the/) [hands](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/mpw0ru/fidelity_orders_updated_412_still_looking_like_a/)
|
||||
|
||||
You wouldn't short a car would you? Well Citadel would, probably.
|
||||
|
||||
Citadel has shorted everything to oblivion and the bill is about to come due. Press X to hold.
|
||||
|
||||
- [Citadel Has No Clothes](https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/comments/m4c0p4/citadel_has_no_clothes/)
|
||||
|
||||
- [The Everything Short](https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/comments/mgucv2/the_everything_short/)
|
||||
|
||||
- More [Naked Shorting](https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/comments/mgj0j1/the_naked_shorting_scam_revealed_lending_of/)
|
||||
|
||||
It's easy to sit there and think the numbers being thrown around aren't realistic, and that's because up until now they haven't been.
|
||||
|
||||
- [KBIO Squeeze was 6% SI with 10,000% growth](https://moxreports.com/kbio-infinity-squeeze/)
|
||||
|
||||
- [Overstock was 13.7% SI with 4000% growth](https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/comments/mqt7w6/gamestop_vs_overstock/)
|
||||
|
||||
- [VW was 12-15% SI with 500% growth](https://imgur.com/a/Z2bF2wy)
|
||||
|
||||
- The part that always gets me, "Why did the short sellers hang on for so long when the tide was moving against them? Perhaps they remained focused on the long-term anticipated drop in price rather than the risk of being squeezed in the meantime." What'd we learn Kenny?
|
||||
|
||||
Yes, these are entirely different scenarios, and each one had additional variables that affected the squeeze. But it really puts things in perspective huh?
|
||||
|
||||
Because:
|
||||
|
||||
GME Short Interest*
|
||||
|
||||
- [Conservative Short Interest Calculation: 38M](https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/comments/lzj00a/super_conservative_calculation_puts_gme_short/) (~147%)
|
||||
|
||||
- [Slightly less conservative: 250-900%](https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/comments/m19oh7/true_short_interest_could_be_anywhere_from_250_to/)
|
||||
|
||||
GME Float
|
||||
|
||||
- [APES. OWN. THE. FLOAT](https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/comments/m7x2gq/dd_i_did_the_math_there_is_literally_no_doubt/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3)
|
||||
|
||||
- [Float/SI](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/mofkra/institutional_ownership_and_short_interest_proof/)
|
||||
|
||||
*DD to get a realistic understanding of Short Interest:
|
||||
|
||||
- [Fake Shares to Millionaires Common Misconceptions of Short Interest](https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/comments/mmo9kw/from_fake_shares_to_millionaires_common/)
|
||||
|
||||
- [Mythbusters DD: Can We Set Share Price](https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/comments/mhjfee/mythbuster_dd_can_you_set_the_price_for_your/)
|
||||
|
||||
[January was a 1500% increase](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/27/gamestop-mania-explained-how-the-reddit-retail-trading-crowd-ran-over-wall-street-pros.html) and that wasn't even the squeeze.
|
||||
|
||||
The only thing that truly matters, is that by most conservative estimates, Short Interest is over 100%, and Apes own a significant portion of the float.
|
||||
|
||||
If even after all of this you STILL find yourself doubting, take a look back at the long term value. Or should I say, [the Deep Fucking Value](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GZTr1-Gp74U)
|
||||
|
||||
And there you have it. The only doubts you should have left over should be about what champagne you're celebrating with.
|
||||
|
||||
As for your [exit strategy?](https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/comments/m073v6/exit_strategy_dd_a_comprehensive_guide_to/)
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/w1t2xj7v4ct61.png?width=730&format=png&auto=webp&s=8fd0f6a31b05979ca2943407ad50985ed86d0b15)
|
||||
|
||||
From /u/BinBender's Fake Shares to Millionaires
|
||||
|
||||
[Look at what this community created.](https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/comments/lj1wqv/a_comprehensive_compilation_of_all_due_diligence/) Look at the time and effort that's been put in. The DD is incredible. Take a moment to appreciate what "dumb money" has accomplished. Thank you to every Ape here for being a part of this, from [r/WallStreetBets](https://www.reddit.com/r/WallStreetBets/), to [r/GME](https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/), to [r/Superstonk](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/), to every other sub. You all are truly amazing.
|
||||
|
||||
The hard DD has been done. The only thing that can work against the squeeze now is the artificial limit you place on it.
|
||||
|
||||
[Remember why you hold](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UMKNU04cMvU)
|
||||
|
||||
[Remember](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/mqmhnm/its_430_am_cant_sleep_read_the_dd_a_million_times/) [why](https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/comments/mqukfw/i_hodl_to_afford_my_transgender_surgery/) [the](https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/comments/m83920/this_is_why_i_hold_its_time_for_things_to_change/) [Ape](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/mr4ec7/live_in_my_vehicle_this_is_my_bed_and_that_drink/) [next](https://reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/mo9bjt/this_is_why_im_holding/) [to](https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/comments/lur26s/why_they_hold/) [you](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/moqsuv/why_i_will_hold_to_the_end_whatever_that_looks/) [holds](https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/lb1dj8/why_im_holding_gme/)
|
||||
|
||||
And that's really all that's left to do: Hold for yourself, and hold for the Ape next to you. That's the only way GME hits 10M. It's that simple.
|
@ -0,0 +1,171 @@
|
||||
All Shorts Must Cover. They're Entering The Danger Zone. The SI Report Loop Consistently Brings Us Ever Closer To The Squeeze.
|
||||
==============================================================================================================================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/Criand](https://www.reddit.com/user/Criand/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/n792mf/all_shorts_must_cover_theyre_entering_the_danger/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
|
||||
[DD 👨🔬](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22DD%20%F0%9F%91%A8%E2%80%8D%F0%9F%94%AC%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||
0\. Preface
|
||||
|
||||
This is your daily hit of hopium. In this case maybe a full rip of it since I see many people discouraged about 002 - but there is no need to worry. I want to show you that apes are winning and shorts are losing. You hold, you win. (But please note I am not a financial advisor. I don't want you guys bitching at me if you YOLO it on deep OTM options expiring within 24 hours).
|
||||
|
||||
It is my belief that we do not need ANY of the new rules for the MOASS to occur. These rules were created for the purpose of preventing future stocks from ever being in the same position that GameStop is in. Think of it as they're introducing rules to ensure that a January runup in another stock never occurs again post GameStop MOASS:
|
||||
|
||||
- The DTCC will no longer have a 'pool' of collateral. Now the members will be hurting more and its easier to hit a margin call. High volatility up = 1 hour margin call from 801.
|
||||
|
||||
- No more delaying FTDs. The DTCC will catch any attempt at this and shut it down. Volatility from FTDs can't be suppressed = 1 hour margin call is easier to push through.
|
||||
|
||||
- Positions will have much more visibility to the DTCC and risk always calculated. No more hiding from the margin calls during high volatility.
|
||||
|
||||
Again, all the bullets above are to prevent future stocks from squeezing. They never want this to happen again. Remember Tesla? It slow squeezed upward without any of these rules on a 15% SI. It's going to happen to GameStop eventually.
|
||||
|
||||
All I'm saying is don't get discouraged! Things can ignite literally any moment - and they will ignite, with or without the DTCC rules.
|
||||
|
||||
1\. The Price Floor Is Moving Towards The Danger Zone.
|
||||
|
||||
On January 25th, 2021, Melvin received a total cash injection of $2.75 Billion. The price spiked to $159.18. So they were cutting it pretty close at that point - or at least, it was preemptive because Shitadel and Point72 knew things would spike a little bit more and this was to avoid the inevitable call from Marge. On another note, they absolutely hate the price of $350, which is where we saw the January and March peaks.
|
||||
|
||||
So it's probably safe to assume that somewhere in the range of $160 and $350 is when our good friend Marge will give them a call. We can apply $160 here because that's around when Melvin got bailed out by his buddies, and them bleeding money over time could eventually make $160 the margin call price point. They can't continue this forever. And it shows. They are slowly but surely running out of time. How fast they are bleeding money? Eh, I don't know. I saw some linear predictions of the margin call price and that prediction could very well be true or very close to being accurate, but I'll leave it as a range for now instead of a "THIS IS THE PRICE TARGET WE'RE WAITING FOR!"
|
||||
|
||||
It's literally just a war of attrition while the apes have infinite supply of time as we approach and enter what I like to call the DANGER ZONE. Kenny G and his friends are on that highway right now and have been ever since January.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/gbu7ar5tjsx61.png?width=1124&format=png&auto=webp&s=8e2738b89eddcb55aab7f9d9360a3ce887652c86)
|
||||
|
||||
Source: Ryan Cohen in Top Gun (1986)
|
||||
|
||||
You'll start to notice something wonderful when you look at the charts starting from January and ignore the trend downward but rather look at the trend upward. Your doubts should erase from your mind when you notice it.
|
||||
|
||||
GME did a very quick decay from the January spike, and then a very slow decay from the March spike. Felt like it was going down in price, and the shorties were winning, huh? So I'm just wondering - how would you have felt if this was the chart we saw instead? What if the price decayed really quick in March again and then settled around $120?
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/zmb1diuvjsx61.png?width=955&format=png&auto=webp&s=625d759f8a4f7102e8af99aeaea5be2ccca67675)
|
||||
|
||||
Hm. I'd feel completely different. Give me that sweet sweet hopium hit. It would have no longer felt like it was going down in price but continuing to rise in price. The slow bleed from around $220 to $160 sucked - though trusting in the DD certainly helped. Now, imagine that SAME squeeze pattern on top of the arrows I drew. Let the price decay quickly in your mind. See what's going on here?
|
||||
|
||||
I only needed to bust out one crayon 🖍️ from my mega 96-crayon pack for this chart. The price floor (blue line) is continuing to rise. Not only this, we're just now entering the DANGER ZONE!! (purple box). While it appears we are on a downtrend from looking at the decay in price from $220 to $160, GME is in fact going to higher and higher floors on these smaller and smaller bursts up. (FTD loop theory is right boys and girls, but I don't think it's been ironed out yet).
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/o8ucx63yjsx61.png?width=978&format=png&auto=webp&s=0ea68935473a0d36925d0a973a1a3260af0e5d1e)
|
||||
|
||||
GME Price Floor Rising Into The Danger Zone
|
||||
|
||||
Well well well. The price floor continues to rise in this dampening effect of price peaks and troughs. It's not going down! It's already going into the GODDAMN DANGER ZONE! They are growing weak at trying to suppress the price. Their efforts can't contain it forever.
|
||||
|
||||
Now keep in mind, this is not to say that it is over once we're in the purple box. It is to say that the longer we stay in the purple box, the closer and closer we get to the margin call price. I can hold out for it - can't you? It's almost time for you to pick out your favorite lambo model.
|
||||
|
||||
Anything can kick this over the edge and finally trigger the MOASS without 002 and 801. We're already stable at the price that GME spiked when Melvin received their cash injection. It's really just a matter of time at this point, because their attempts to kick the price back down are dampening.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/cx44pdr0ksx61.png?width=637&format=png&auto=webp&s=31d909e3f26e0eb8fd94bbde97688fb20ba776eb)
|
||||
|
||||
The longer this drags out, the higher the price floor becomes, until it kicks off.
|
||||
|
||||
- GameStop could find over 100% of their float voted and initiate a price spike, possibly through a recall.
|
||||
|
||||
- The entire market could tip just one way out-of-favor of the shorts, causing their margin price to drop.
|
||||
|
||||
- A long whale gamma squeeze can spike us into margin call territory long enough for the natural margin call (non-801) to occur.
|
||||
|
||||
- GameStop can slowly bleed upward until the critical danger zone price is hit with no other catalysts.
|
||||
|
||||
- Or perhaps, another FTD loop spike pushes GME over the edge. Let's investigate this to try to iron out the missing pieces of the FTD loop theory.
|
||||
|
||||
2\. Hello FTD Loop - Or Should I Say SI Report Loop
|
||||
|
||||
This isn't T+21 or T+35 or anything. But I think it might finally paint the picture of why we have theories ranging from T+13 to T+21 to T+35, and everything in between. We definitely have a loopthat is occurring. And it's most likely due to something called [Short Interest Reporting](https://www.finra.org/filing-reporting/regulatory-filing-systems/short-interest) from FINRA.
|
||||
|
||||
Short interest?! That's two words we're all very familiar with. What exactly is this?
|
||||
|
||||
> FINRA requires firms to report short interest positions in all customer and proprietary accounts in all equity securities twice a month.
|
||||
|
||||
There's three columns on that link. What are they:
|
||||
|
||||
- Settlement Date: The date at which short interest positions must be determined.
|
||||
|
||||
- Due Date: The date at which the report of the SI from the settlement date is due by.
|
||||
|
||||
- Exchange Receipt Date: The date when FINRA finalizes the reports and delivers them.
|
||||
|
||||
Ah nice. So if you were a shortie in January and your SI% is well over 100% of the float, and the world thinks you haven't covered because of the high SI%, then you might want to drop that SI% number down! If you maintain a low SI% for a long time, then the world will believe the squeeze is done for and you can claim that you've covered your positions. In order to drop your SI% that will be reported on the Receipt Date, you'd want to hide your short position before EOD of the Settlement Date.
|
||||
|
||||
You risk causing a mini squeeze right here. AKA the "Fake Squeeze" of January. But you MUST try it to shake off the holders. Dump it all. Pretend you covered. Hope that the apes sell.
|
||||
|
||||
Here's a copy/paste of the dates for 2021. I'm going to only copy the ones through the start of June:
|
||||
|
||||
| Settlement Date | Due Date | Exchange Receipt Date |
|
||||
| --- | --- | --- |
|
||||
| January 15 | January 20 | January 27 |
|
||||
| January 29 | February 2 | February 9 |
|
||||
| February 12 | February 17 | February 24 |
|
||||
| February 26 | March 2 | March 9 |
|
||||
| March 15 | March 17 | March 24 |
|
||||
| March 31 | April 5 | April 12 |
|
||||
| April 15 | April 19 | April 26 |
|
||||
| April 30 | May 4 | May 11 |
|
||||
| May 14 | May 18 | May 25 |
|
||||
| May 28 | June 2 | June 9 |
|
||||
| June 15 | June 17 | June 24 |
|
||||
|
||||
You could look at the Receipt Dates and say, "Hey! We spiked/dipped there! January 27, February 24, March 9, March 24! So the next spike would be May 11!", but not necessarily. It's interesting how some spikes occurred on a few of the receipt dates. I mean, the price certainly could spike again on May 11, but that's probably going to be a coincidence once more. I'm more interested in the Settlement Date column.
|
||||
|
||||
Like I said earlier, it appears that they'll want to stuff away their shorts on days up to and including the settlement date. When this happens, we get volatility in the price due to the ITM CALL + OTM PUT tricks they've been using. The price spikes up, then crashes down. Or vice-versa. And this is consistently happening. Here's a few thoughts that I'm unsure of, but would like to propose:
|
||||
|
||||
- It's possible that a bunch of their shorts pour out after being hidden at critical dates, which result in massive ITM CALL and OTM PUT purchases prior to settlement dates, which consequently spikes/crashes the price in much larger movements. This could be why we're seeing smaller movements (February 12, April 15, April 30) because fewer shorts are popping out and we're waiting for a big pour out again.
|
||||
|
||||
- They like to waste money on flash-crashing the price, probably through exercising a bunch of PUT ammo, while simultaneously suppressing the SI% and moving FTDs out once more with ITM CALL and OTM PUTs (February 26, March 15, March 31). This bleeds them money when spikes occur, and thus makes the Danger Zone ever closer with a slowly incrementing price floor.
|
||||
|
||||
- The overlap of a bunch of their shorts pouring out and FTDs having to be reset occurs on these large movements (January 29, March 15, Some future date?)
|
||||
|
||||
- This is why we see discrepancies between T+21 and T+35 and dates in-between. It's not a cycle on those exact dates but rather any days before the settlement date.
|
||||
|
||||
To help visually, I plotted each settlement date on the lovely GameStop chart starting in January. You can see that prior to every single receipt date, some kind of volatility occurs. Even for February 12, I would argue that the spike/drop from February 5 to February 6 was one of these volatile movements, though ever slight of a movement like we're seeing now.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/u2kbzue2ksx61.png?width=1344&format=png&auto=webp&s=7d7ca2c0862ec18f866e3905bed7ef64907bc769)
|
||||
|
||||
So, what does this mean? Well, it's not a date but more of a "watch for shit to go down close to or on these Settlement Dates (May 14, May 28, June 15, etc.)". The next few Settlement Dates could continue to be dampening with smaller and smaller volatile movements. But they could also be a repeat of the January, February, or March spikes due to the possibility that a ton of shorts and FTDs will need to be brushed under the rug once more.
|
||||
|
||||
- If GME spikes again due to this, they could attempt to flash crash the price once more.
|
||||
|
||||
- If GME spikes again due to this, and they are unable to flash crash the price, they'll be sitting higher in the DANGAH ZONE.
|
||||
|
||||
- Regardless, we can assume the price floor will continue to rise. Perhaps since we are at a critical point here of $160 and it has been dampening to an ever smaller volatile swings around $160 - that we will see a huge burst again just like January, February, and March in order to maintain that ever-increasing price floor.
|
||||
|
||||
It sounds like I'm covering my ass because I said it could spike significantly or not at all lol. But I think there's enough data points here to assume that volatility will always occur prior to the next SI Report Settlement Date. Whether or not it is a big jump depends entirely on the amount of shorts and FTDs they need to hide. When do those pour out? Is it a specific date? That's what I'd like to find out.
|
||||
|
||||
Personally I still believe April 16, 2021 caused something big that is coming. You don't just have all these banks + Shitadel working overtime day and night as of that date and not prior to it. If a big amount of shorts popped out of April 16 and they did not hide a lot of them prior to April 30 settlement, then the receipt date of those positions is May 11.
|
||||
|
||||
- Note: Receipt date of May 11 does not imply a price spike will occur. This implies that the next SI% report could cause a SI% spike if April 16 shorts popped out and were unable to be hidden by April 30.
|
||||
|
||||
- If the next SI% report date shows a spike in SI%, then its very possible that a portion of their hidden short position will be calculated into their risk, and the margin call price will go further down in the danger zone, making the tendies that much closer.
|
||||
|
||||
3\. Conclusion
|
||||
|
||||
We're reaching a critical point here, and its obvious that the shorters are going to lose. Apes will win. Don't get discouraged. Anyone telling you you're crazy might be right - that you're crazy just in a general sense - but you're not crazy for believing in GME.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/nlz8u354ksx61.png?width=926&format=png&auto=webp&s=257bb41e794c88e225f0385a752f25d15f3788d0)
|
||||
|
||||
Blast off from here with some hopium / TLDR:
|
||||
|
||||
- Melvin received a $2.75B injection on the day GameStop spiked to $160. They have flash crashed the price from going above $350 every time. It's probably safe to assume they are entering the Kenny Loggin's DANGER ZONE as of this week which ranges from $160 to $350. This zone is where the margin call price theoretically lives.
|
||||
|
||||
- GME is already stabilizing around this $160 price point. Melvin, are you scared?
|
||||
|
||||
- The Danger Zone will continue to shift down while they bleed money attempting to suppress the price. The margin call is inevitable. All shorts must cover.
|
||||
|
||||
- We consistently see volatile movement at some point in the week or week before a SI Report Settlement Date. EVERY single date has had this occur. The next settlement date is May 14.
|
||||
|
||||
- This could be only a slight movement just like the past few Settlement Dates.
|
||||
|
||||
- This could be a big movement due to April 16 from an overlap of a large amount of shorts having to be suppressed and FTDs shifted out (but who knows).
|
||||
|
||||
- Every Settlement Date spike results in an ever higher price floor. The past few floors, starting Feb 26 through May 7 = $100, $120, $140, $150, $160. This brings us closer to, and into, the Danger Zone.
|
||||
|
||||
- The Settlement Date following April 16 was on April 30. If a bunch of shorts spilled out from April 16 and they are no longer able to suppress them, then the Receipt Date on May 11 can result in a spike of SI%. Note: not price spike. SI% spike.
|
||||
|
||||
- If the SI% spikes and they now have to include those shorts in their risk calculations, then that might shift the Danger Zone even lower and make the margin call price even closer.
|
||||
|
||||
Also note to not day trade. Imagine you make the wrong mistake and the volatile movement ends up being the MOASS. See ya.
|
||||
|
||||
The end feels so close. We'll see what the next few weeks bring. 😎
|
36
DD/2021-05-07-Negative-Volume-Prints.md
Normal file
36
DD/2021-05-07-Negative-Volume-Prints.md
Normal file
@ -0,0 +1,36 @@
|
||||
Negative Volume Prints
|
||||
======================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/dlauer](https://www.reddit.com/user/dlauer/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/n772fg/negative_volume_prints/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
[Education 👨🏫 | Data 🔢](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22Education%20%F0%9F%91%A8%E2%80%8D%F0%9F%8F%AB%20%7C%20Data%20%F0%9F%94%A2%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||
I have been looking into the negative volume prints, because I agree it's very strange. However, just to be clear, I believe in Occam's Razor, and so am still under the impression that this is a bug or data glitch. Here's what I've done so far:
|
||||
|
||||
- I have two data providers for this kind of information, one for raw market data and the other for historical fundamental data. Neither shows anything strange. This was not something that came in the raw market data feeds. The historical fundamental data provider I use shows this as the last 3 days' trading volumes:
|
||||
|
||||
"date": "2021-05-06", "value": 2942802.0
|
||||
|
||||
"date": "2021-05-05", "value": 1789186.0
|
||||
|
||||
"date": "2021-05-04", "value": 4007512.0
|
||||
|
||||
- I do not see negative volume bars in Fidelity or Interactive Brokers.
|
||||
|
||||
- I reached out to a friend who is very high up at one of the exchanges. He had the same reaction to this as I have. Here is what he said:\
|
||||
Corrections to the tape are rarely (if ever) done. It's mostly cancels to ensure last sale is correct. There is no "input" for a negative number. Its cancel old and insert new.\
|
||||
If they use like a last sale feed for api from somewhere else - well that could be a bug. Can it be corroborated with other sources?
|
||||
|
||||
If this is just TD Ameritrade, then it could simply be a bug on their side. If this is seen in other discount broker platforms, then the likeliest explanation is that they are all using the same data provider and there's some unexpected data coming down the pipe via API.
|
||||
|
||||
So here's what I'd ask. First, if you see this somewhere other than TDA, let us know in the comments. My friend at the exchange is interested too.
|
||||
|
||||
Second, reach out to your broker if you see it and ask what's going on. Let's see what they say, and I can let you know if they're bullshitting or not.
|
||||
|
||||
Finally, I still don't see the mechanism for this to be indicative of any kind of margin call. I don't mean to throw cold water on it, but if there was a margin call of any size, the only way you'd know is from news reports. It would not show up in market data. Trades wouldn't be busted at the end of the day because of no collateral, at least as far as I've ever seen. I don't claim to know everything, but I've seen trades busted before and this isn't what it would look like.
|
||||
|
||||
Hope this is helpful!
|
180
DD/2021-05-07-Ryan-Cohens-Kill-Shot-The-Reverse-Merger.md
Normal file
180
DD/2021-05-07-Ryan-Cohens-Kill-Shot-The-Reverse-Merger.md
Normal file
@ -0,0 +1,180 @@
|
||||
Ryan Cohens Kill Shot....the Reverse Merger
|
||||
===========================================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/Alert_Piano341](https://www.reddit.com/user/Alert_Piano341/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/user/Alert_Piano341/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
[DD 👨🔬](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22DD%20%F0%9F%91%A8%E2%80%8D%F0%9F%94%AC%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||
What's RC plan, does he have a plan?
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/u187w1yyxrx61.png?width=512&format=png&auto=webp&s=eba4369c1f55655cae2c4603de8d74fa4dd2c44b)
|
||||
|
||||
This Guy Fucks
|
||||
|
||||
Here is what I think Ryan Cohens plan is
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/e7c3rodiyrx61.png?width=1264&format=png&auto=webp&s=356944c81ec0e08be4da473605260def8e819f75)
|
||||
|
||||
REVERSE Merger
|
||||
|
||||
Ok I have heard allot of talk about stock splits, reverse splits, dividends or crypto dividends ect on how RC can shake the shorts.
|
||||
|
||||
None of those really go the whole way. Reverse split is out of the question as the stock is not liquid enough, and there is legal questions surrounding the crypto dividend. [OVERSTOCK](https://www.coindesk.com/after-lawsuits-and-delays-overstock-hands-shareholders-digital-dividend)
|
||||
|
||||
Also none of these moves benefit Ryan Cohen and GameStop at the same time. They may hurt the shorts or help retail investors but none of the options help Gamestop and RC at the sametime.
|
||||
|
||||
I have [Posted](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/mwy324/can_ryan_cohen_increase_his_ownership_to_199/) and others have thought about RC buying more GameStop, after reviewing the filings he can buy up to 20% of the company at any point. This whole time I have been waiting for him to buy, and thinking that he is waiting for volume to dry up, or to save his ammo to protect the stock if the price starts to fall.
|
||||
|
||||
but there is a serious flaw in that thinking......it doesn't help Gamestop.
|
||||
|
||||
I lay out the timeline of RC and GameStop below more in-depth below, but at this point RC has control of the board and the chairmanship, he doesn't need to buy anymore stock the way normal people do.
|
||||
|
||||
GameStop, with the help of RC and his marry band of Apes has erased its long term debt (minus leases) and raised 555m (a nice down payment on the transformation)
|
||||
|
||||
Ryan Cohen wants to own more of GME, most owner/ceo own over 20% of the companies they run.
|
||||
|
||||
He is totally invested in the GameStop turnaround, the best thing he can do is a Reverse Merger.
|
||||
|
||||
He capitalizes RC ventures with allot of money (500m, 750m, 1.5b) he can even bring in other private investors.
|
||||
|
||||
RC Ventures and GME merge, they create a Holding Company that they both merge into. The holding company is renamed Gamestop and eventually trades as GME under a new CUSIP#
|
||||
|
||||
How does it help Ryan Cohen- He gets ownership of whatever % of the stock at the agreed upon merger price (it would be the same amount as if he bought on the open market)
|
||||
|
||||
How does it help Gamestop- they actually get the CAPITAL, if Ryan buys on the open market they don't get the money they sold that stock when they issued it. this way Ryan gets to infuse the company with much needed cash and increase his ownership stake at the same time.
|
||||
|
||||
You are probable asking
|
||||
|
||||
HOW DOES IT HELP APE - Did you gloss over the part about the CUSIP#...here read this
|
||||
|
||||
[Example 1](https://groovevc.wordpress.com/2017/04/12/is-this-the-beginning-of-a-remarkable-short-squeeze/) or <https://theintercept.com/2016/09/24/naked-shorts-cant-stay-naked-forever/>
|
||||
|
||||
" Changing the stock cusip number results in each share with the old cusip number having to be exchanged for a share with the new cusip number, which causes each short position to have to prove the borrow. Naked short positions would be unable to comply and those positions could have to be covered by purchasing shares with the new cusip on the open market. "
|
||||
|
||||
Now the reverse split or the reverse merger has been tried before and it does squeeze the stock price a bit, but then it goes right back down. Typically this is because it is done on Penny Stocks and the shorts can simply cover as its not that expensive or there is not as many Naked shorts as people think.
|
||||
|
||||
but what if there is a ton of NAKED SHORTS, then those SHORTS ARE FUCKED. If they sold a bunch of shares naked and kept doing it without ever thinking they would need to be returned they would be foreced to buy a TON of GME under the new CUSIP #
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/rcjd1rbu3sx61.png?width=1027&format=png&auto=webp&s=94a30a8b7979391f95da12571a11c17212049340)
|
||||
|
||||
There goal was never to cover
|
||||
|
||||
I have been writing a DD where I believe that Citadel and SUS has been stashing their Naked options sales or Naked short sales in [Sold not yet purchased liabilities](https://www.reddit.com/r/DDintoGME/comments/n6mj3h/knight_capital_groupthe_precursor_to_citadel_part/) which are Ballooning.
|
||||
|
||||
Oh and GME has done this before when the merged with EB games
|
||||
|
||||
[Gamestop EBgaming Merger](https://news.gamestop.com/node/11616/html)
|
||||
|
||||
They created a new Holding company like a laid out above
|
||||
|
||||
More Fuel for the Fire-
|
||||
|
||||
Ryan Cohen changed lawyers (DFV pointed it out in his tweets)
|
||||
|
||||
new lawyer.....rising start in Mergers and Acquisitions
|
||||
|
||||
<https://profiles.superlawyers.com/new-york-metro/new-york/lawyer/ryan-p-nebel/c6896fb3-ede6-4eca-8bbe-40b0dc317589.html>
|
||||
|
||||
He also has a team of lawyers but Ryans on the Filings now . [NEW TEAM](https://www.globallegalchronicle.com/gamestops-agreement-with-ryan-cohen-for-the-board-of-directors/)
|
||||
|
||||
Ryan Cohen has the Assets-
|
||||
|
||||
He sold CHewy for Billions....he bought two stocks Apple and Wells fargo (we dont know the ratio but articles point to it being heave on apple)
|
||||
|
||||
Do you like apples?
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/yx4fhnni0sx61.png?width=853&format=png&auto=webp&s=acecc5de4bd90ec5f9954cf3521f0c1cca8f88c3)
|
||||
|
||||
Ryan Cohen owns 6.2 million shares of Apple How do you like them apples?
|
||||
|
||||
Tinfoil Hat time-
|
||||
|
||||
Apple has been acting weird since mid February.
|
||||
|
||||
[Apple bought back 19B in March](https://www.barrons.com/articles/tech-giants-have-ramped-up-stock-buybacks-apple-is-the-champ-51619780412), the stock didnt pop up until they crushed earnings and annouced that they are going to buy back 90B more....and its dipping again.
|
||||
|
||||
I have been thinking it is Funds selling out to cash out or to cover your position. Probably covering the position as apple it is safe haven stock.
|
||||
|
||||
but what if it was someone ready to go .....all in on GME
|
||||
|
||||
yeah crazy theory
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/upodiaca6sx61.png?width=1072&format=png&auto=webp&s=29e37b1a8cce286ee975db6237fea537941885cc)
|
||||
|
||||
Apple Dipped in march
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/rhyt5ueg7sx61.png?width=782&format=png&auto=webp&s=e3c2b3dd492f84109a3250ec7454066731b2bf4c)
|
||||
|
||||
Is Ryan Bluffing.....Citadels about to find out
|
||||
|
||||
Lets Recap what Ryan has done to Date-
|
||||
|
||||
-Ryan Cohen Started purchasing Gamestop on 8/13/2020
|
||||
|
||||
-Registers and Incorporates RC Ventures LLC on 8/28/2020
|
||||
|
||||
-Files [first 13D](https://sec.report/Document/0001013594-20-000670/) on 8/28 signifying that he owns more than 5%
|
||||
|
||||
-Buys more GME and then on 11/16/2020 rights a [letter to the board](https://sec.report/Document/0001013594-20-000821/rc13da3-111620.pdf) (This really the only DD I need)
|
||||
|
||||
he points out in the letter Game stop is failing and squandering a Golden opportunity
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/9cdlcnszmrx61.png?width=660&format=png&auto=webp&s=7e2484774d51eb4f04717fbfcf5778088790cae9)
|
||||
|
||||
RC points out they are being shorted
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/zbwbki57nrx61.png?width=721&format=png&auto=webp&s=7ee342586d2f18d1d2c04392b99511aca7b310fb)
|
||||
|
||||
Ends the letter by saying you will not buy me off with one board seat
|
||||
|
||||
- On 12-21-2021 RC aquires more [GME](https://sec.report/Document/0001193805-20-001571/) he now owns 12.9%, [DFV](https://twitter.com/TheRoaringKitty/status/1341074590534152192) eagle eyes it a notes Ryan switched attorneys, thanks DFV you look at everything
|
||||
|
||||
- GME and RC file a [13D/A](https://sec.report/Document/0001193805-21-000031/) that they have come to agreement that the board will expand from 10-13 seats, and Alan Attal, Ryan Cohen and Jim Grube will be added to the board. At the share holders meeting it will go back to 9 members. [Agreement](https://sec.report/Document/0001193805-21-000031/#e620202_ex99-1.htm) (please read)
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/yd73uunuprx61.png?width=1624&format=png&auto=webp&s=d1fcb33279f19180016899e26c7985ab47c48f53)
|
||||
|
||||
Basically he cant say much during the standstill period
|
||||
|
||||
the standstill provision last until 120 days after the annual meeting (unless they amend or terminate it)
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/l0jpu8o6rrx61.png?width=1649&format=png&auto=webp&s=28b7feeae5c4196c6c8da7d117d78a86922f5cb5)
|
||||
|
||||
Standstill period for stock ownership, and it changes the definition of an interested stockholder from 15% to 20%. it notes that an interested stockholder would be restricted on any business combination for 3 years after they reach 20% (changed from 15%)
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/0b5p08rdrrx61.png?width=1643&format=png&auto=webp&s=d7fd82608601775e596b1b46ca5f69b39cc06fd0)
|
||||
|
||||
203 approval, he has approval to buy up to 20% of the stock
|
||||
|
||||
-James Bell Resigns 2/23
|
||||
|
||||
-GME hires new COO from amazon 3/23 (they also hired a series of C-suite executives to lead the transformation)
|
||||
|
||||
-Gme 4/5/2021 updates their [ATM offering](https://sec.report/Document/0001193125-21-105564/) reduce shares from being offered and increased the target price and the press thought it was Bad??? (side note in late 2019, GME bought back over 30,000,000 shares!!! so they bought back 30,000,000 shares in 2019 for 150 million, and sold 3.5 million shares in 2021 for 555million)
|
||||
|
||||
-GME 4/8/2021 announces Ryan Cohen will be director of the board on 6/9 and that the board will be 6 members (Ryan has 4 of the 6 seats) OK He wrote a letter on November 11/16 and 6 months later he is the chairman of the board and has board control.
|
||||
|
||||
-Gme 4/13/21 Announces Voluntary Early Redemption of Senior note (cool they will be debt free) lets check out the note
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/uj064b2iwrx61.png?width=1547&format=png&auto=webp&s=c5d8a416efddec1808b860f02e1623027d6dd293)
|
||||
|
||||
ohh thats interesting. it was at 10% which sucks and now they can do cool shit
|
||||
|
||||
GME 4/19/21- Announces CEO succession plan ( I don't think it matters if its Ryan or not, Ryan is steering the ship another person would just bring in added brain power and experience)
|
||||
|
||||
GME 4/26/21- Gme Complete At the market equity offering program (21 days) Sells 3,500,000 shares for $551,000,000
|
||||
|
||||
GME 4/30/21 Retired the debt and announced the opening of a new [Fulfillment](https://news.gamestop.com/news-releases/news-release-details/gamestop-expands-fulfillment-network-new-facility-york) center
|
||||
|
||||
Ryan Cohen buys in August, wrights a letter in November and in less than 6 months he has
|
||||
|
||||
-erased long term debt (outside of leases)
|
||||
|
||||
-raised over 500million dollars
|
||||
|
||||
-Remade upper management
|
||||
|
||||
-Started the process of opening a fulfillment center for the east coast
|
364
DD/2021-05-09-They-are-Running-Out-of-Options.md
Normal file
364
DD/2021-05-09-They-are-Running-Out-of-Options.md
Normal file
@ -0,0 +1,364 @@
|
||||
They're Running Out of Options - Estimating potentially hidden FTDs using public options data
|
||||
=============================================================================================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/SuperstonkBot](https://www.reddit.com/user/SuperstonkBot/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/n8gflf/theyre_running_out_of_options_estimating/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
|
||||
[🤖 SuperstonkBot](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22%F0%9F%A4%96%20SuperstonkBot%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||
Hello you sexy silverbacks, I'm one of the many silent holders and I'm really hoping at least one ape *tries* to read this shit. It's taken me some time to go through everything and type this up, so go find somebody with a nice deep reading voice baby I MEAN I'M JACKED,
|
||||
|
||||
IM JACKED TO THE TITS\
|
||||
I've seen scattered posts on a lot of this stuff, but I'm trying fit the pieces into a more linear argument. I do my best to present data and let it tell it's story.
|
||||
|
||||
That said, I wrote I a lot of shit down there, so I wrote most of it in a way that hopefully won't make your mom's boyfriend fall asleep while to reading to you.
|
||||
|
||||
I think I linked everything I used so ..
|
||||
|
||||
Please let me know where I'm off!!\
|
||||
( [This important post](https://web.archive.org/web/20210504013036/https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/mtmqf3/critical_thinking_from_a_psychology_academic/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf) by [u/Makataui](https://web.archive.org/web/20210504013036/https://www.reddit.com/u/Makataui/) - a Psychology professor who's made a living on his ability to logically discern shit- goes over the importance of critical thinking, especially in our dopamine bath of confirmation bias and group polarization !! Save it for later, at the very least. )
|
||||
|
||||
Also this isn't advice, some of it will be wrong - it's my interpretationspeculation of data.
|
||||
|
||||
It's blind ape's description of an elephant.
|
||||
|
||||
TLDR:\
|
||||
If you don't like foreplay you can skip to the numbers warning. If you don't wanna read any of it I guess just hodl until Jan 21, or at least wait for a bankruptcy or two. Basically there are so many ways to indefinitely roll FTDs into the future, the number of actual fails in GME, and maybe the whole system Idk, is pretty much a measure of Wall Street's integrity.
|
||||
|
||||
//
|
||||
|
||||
Okay, so
|
||||
|
||||
1\. Options Options\
|
||||
I've been digging through [GME options data](https://web.archive.org/web/20210504013036/https://www.barchart.com/stocks/quotes/GME/options?expiration=2021-04-30-w&moneyness=allRows) for a while, and I found some, uh, colorful numbers. I'm hoping someone less autistic than I am can tell me why they smell like horse shit.
|
||||
|
||||
Most of GME's expiry dates, EXCLUDING 7/16/21 and 1/21/22, are pretty boring. Not only are there low volume and open interest, there are far fewer strikes with interest, *especially* at sub $50 strikes. But for July 16 and Jan 21, strikes climb in $0.50 increments up to $5.50. Most other dates begin $5, usually moving in $5 or $10 increments.
|
||||
|
||||
Alright I'm losing you already so I'll back up and explain as I go along. If you know this shit already skip to - (???????? ????????)
|
||||
|
||||
Each option contract (call or put) represents a non-obligational right to buy (call) or sell (put) x number (usually 100) of shares for an agreed upon price (strike price) per share, by an agreed upon expiration date. These are contracts, not shares - owning the right to buy/sell has an opposing obligation to deliver/purchase. This means that options traders are not required to buy contracts before selling them. Typically the trader will instead buy 100 shares of the underlying security to "cover the call".
|
||||
|
||||
This is one reason why looking at open interest data is useful. Open interest is the number of contracts yet to be settled at some expiration date, and the options data I linked above shows the interest of individual strike prices within that date.
|
||||
|
||||
Contracts can be settled (and thus OI decreased) in 3 ways: 1) they can be exercised (buyer exercises his right to buy/sell), 2) they can expire worthless, 3) the seller can purchase the option back from the market
|
||||
|
||||
Btw notice how I said "market" and not "buyer" - that's because when a contract's seller buys to close, the market (the OCC) fills his buy order (bid) with a random seller, even if one of his original buyers has a sell order (ask).
|
||||
|
||||
This is largely for two reasons: 1) So a trader on Citadel's trading floor can close his position without waiting for individual RobinHood buyers to sell their calls, and 2) to prevent a trader from just buying calls from Phil down the hall (this will come up later, surprise lmao ofc he still can)
|
||||
|
||||
Options chains are usually organized by strike prices at different expiration dates, and every buyer has a seller, so even if a trader buys to close, the overall OI on $60 calls will only decrease if he manages to buy back calls he originally wrote, otherwise that interest is just shifted to Credit Suisse or whoever sold.
|
||||
|
||||
This means that, even if a trader's initial option position is closed, the option will still have interest until all buyers decide to sell.
|
||||
|
||||
Note: Options are typically organized by strike and expiration, but that does not mean all traders trade at single strikes. A trader can fill my 250k order at $60, or he can tell me to fuck off and write 50 calls at every strike from $40-$60, adding more room to hedge and possibly making liquidity easier.
|
||||
|
||||
So remember how I said there were options on 7/16 and 1/21 in 50 cent increments up to $5.50...
|
||||
|
||||
(????????????????)
|
||||
|
||||
2\. ETFs, FTDs, WTF\
|
||||
This is probably where you may want to break out the tinfoil...
|
||||
|
||||
By looking at an [option's price history](https://web.archive.org/web/20210504013036/https://www.barchart.com/stocks/quotes/GME%7C20210716%7C0.50P/price-history/historical) you can see when that option began trading, hinting at when the option was originally written, and almost every option within those weird 50 cent increments began trading just after the 2020 dip in March, with some going back further into 2019 at very low activity until March 2020. Note GameStop was trading around $3.50 before the March 2020 drop. These March dates aren't regular, either. Most other options were not traded until November, 2020.
|
||||
|
||||
** *cue speculative cutscene* **
|
||||
|
||||
Now, if I'm Phil the Hedge Fund Manager in March, 2020, looking at brick-and-mortar GameStop, a company I've been short for years on that's now trending into the dirt BEFORE a global pandemic --- and I'm watching all my friend's brick-and-mortar short positions furiously shitting Benjamins, what better way to print free money than just sell bunch of calls and wait for the iNeViTabLe bankruptcy? Mother Nature just broke into the ICU and stuck a knife in GameStop, says Phil, so if any of the calls are executed I'll just borrow the shares to cover them for a measly $350 per contract and maybe I'll borrow some more to deliver the first batch I borrowed. What? FTD? Is that like FYE?? Ehh who cares GME will be in retail heaven with Blockbuster and Toys Were Us by January. Flu season in a pandemic?? I'll see you in Barbados boyzzzz
|
||||
|
||||
MAYBE Phil, with Ponzi-the-money-printer, earns his firm, Edgar Capital, [60 PERCENT RETURNS IN 6 MONTHS](https://web.archive.org/web/20210504013036/https://fintel.io/ip/melvin-capital-management-lp) and now his bosses who earned 10% last year are literally asking him to fuck their wives. And their daughters. In Barbados.
|
||||
|
||||
Maybe things start to get [a little tense](https://web.archive.org/web/20210504013036/https://images.fintel.io/us-gme-fails-to-deliver.png) toward the end of September. Just a month ago Phil thought FTD was an STI and now people are calling him Margin Capital online :(
|
||||
|
||||
Now seems like a good time to talk about what exactly happens when a trade fails. If your trades fail all the time already, skip to -
|
||||
|
||||
(????????????????????)
|
||||
|
||||
It might be helpful to think of any given hedge fund or capital group as.. less like a chess grandmaster and more like the guy who sells hotdogs downtown at 2 am. He picks the street, maybe he makes the chili, but unless he's selling to a restaurant, he's kinda fucked unless people stumble up to him. He's got some wieners in stock, but if there are more buyers than wieners, he might take their money and tell them to come back tomorrow for their hotdogs.
|
||||
|
||||
Now picture millions of these bastards huddled inside their Broker-Dealer Cafeteria's, all stuffed inside Market Maker Superdome selling and promising food all day to orders coming in - add a few more superdomes and replace hotdogs with stocks, ETFs, options, blah blah that's basically the stock market.
|
||||
|
||||
To set the scene, it's late August, 2020, and Grandma buys a share of Monster and at the end of the day, Phil has no Monster. Usually Phil's BD will lend Phil its shares (or just create them..) for a day or two, and if he doesn't find Grandma's Monster by then then, he must declare a fail-to-deliver. Well Phil has amnesia and after two days he just declares fail-to-deliver. Phil now has 3 days to find the Monster or Phil's Market Maker (who clears the BD's trade), on the fifth day, will force the BD to buy one with his money.
|
||||
|
||||
*Unless* that BD vouches that Phil's a kind, forgetful guy, in which case Phil gets to tack on another 3 days.
|
||||
|
||||
[This SEC document](https://web.archive.org/web/20210504013036/https://www.sec.gov/investor/pubs/regsho.htm) goes over these guidelines btw I'm not just spitballing
|
||||
|
||||
*In a shocking twist of events* - Apple buys Monster and now Phil's fucked. There are no shares to borrow and Monster is too expensive to buy.
|
||||
|
||||
Let's say the BD's Market Maker is Phil's wife's boyfriend's brother - and honestly the MM has so many shares he wipes his ass every day with them every day, so - if there's an ETF (basically a veggie burger of shares) containing Monster, he can use his MM authority to throw some Monster into a 50,000 share burger called a creation unit, then sell it to BD as a new share of the ETF. BD trades the ETF to Phil, who's been holding the BD's share so he doesn't fail to deliver, then Phil plucks a Monster seed from the burger and *voila* Monster is on the books - Phil shows the BD the MM's shares, winks, and the FTD is settled. On paper.
|
||||
|
||||
The DTCC is the final clearing destination for most US trades. They allow 35 calendar days for MM's to settle, so Phil rented the MM's extension and the MM is trusting Phil to find Grandma's Monster in 35 days. When he does, he can sell the newly minted ETF share back to the MM, the MM puts the shares back in their places and it's all roses and ????????
|
||||
|
||||
Oh btw, to tie in the hotdog guy analogy, you probably won't be surprised to know that the Superdome owns a lot of the Cafeterias inside. Many Market Makers *are* Broker-Dealers. This reduces internal regulation, and, because these trades are often beneficial for everyone except Grandma, they can potentially be abused.
|
||||
|
||||
Okay to keep things realistic, let say Monster's only ETF is the Wedbush Addictive 50 ($WADD) and holy shit, Apple is in there too. Just before the ETF-burger move, the MM is out of Monster and and Phil's fuckedfucked
|
||||
|
||||
In this situation, Phil can simply offer his wife to his MM, in which the MM can build the WADD as a creation unit of IOU's, called an [ETN](https://web.archive.org/web/20210504013036/https://www.investopedia.com/investing/etfs-vs-etns/), from which Phil can pluck the Monster IOU, and *voila* - Phil's has a happy Grandma and a happier wife
|
||||
|
||||
(????????????????????)
|
||||
|
||||
MMs generating ETFs and ETNs as a means of lending less-liquid securities inside, is well covered in [this presentation](https://web.archive.org/web/20210504013036/https://youtu.be/ncq35zrFCAg). This is one way to conceal fails, but they're not *entirely* hidden - the fails may still show up within the ETFs.
|
||||
|
||||
As I understand it, if this were the case with GME, or any security, you would expect repeated spikes in ETF fails, ~6-8 days after the security fails.
|
||||
|
||||
Of course this would smell like bull shit from a mile away, so there are a few other ways fails can be kicked down the road. They're not my secrets lol both of my great grandparents are still alive - the SEC warned about them in 2103:
|
||||
|
||||
//
|
||||
|
||||
Side note on ETN's:
|
||||
|
||||
ETN's are, by definition "unsecured debt obligations" - and they have legitimate benefits. As debt obligations they also have risks, as [this presentation from 2019](https://web.archive.org/web/20210504013036/https://youtu.be/ncq35zrFCAg) discusses.
|
||||
|
||||
I have a concern I really hope someone can ease for me. A short position is a debt obligation, so wouldn't borrowing to cover a short create a collateralized debt obligation? And if ETN's are basically virtual, unsecured debt obligations, wouldn't repeatedly using ETN's to cover short positions create a synthetic collateralized debt obligation?
|
||||
|
||||
Yes I'm unashamedly using 2008 hot words, and maybe I shouldn't, but considering the (albeit extreme) example at 28:00 in the video I linked above, when XRT (ETF containing GME) reported 78m ownership of 11m outstanding shares -
|
||||
|
||||
That's a security-stew of 11m veggie burger bits floating in a broth of 67m promises. Priced by the pound.
|
||||
|
||||
I genuinely hope this FTD shuffling tactic isn't accidentally (or otherwise) creating synthetic CDO's. Remember the Asian dude Michael Scott's alter ego almost strangled in a restaurant over how completely autistic derivatives of synthetic CDO's were? Wouldn't that just translate to all options contracts and other derivatives involving ETF's??
|
||||
|
||||
//
|
||||
|
||||
3\. It Often Rhymes\
|
||||
If you don't read another word of this post, please please save [this SEC risk alert from 2013](https://web.archive.org/web/20210504013036/https://www.sec.gov/about/offices/ocie/options-trading-risk-alert.pdf) to read for later.
|
||||
|
||||
That document reviews the FTD settlement guidelines that I went through earlier and discusses two other known methods of concealing fails: married puts and buy-write transactions.
|
||||
|
||||
Reminder that this is all in relation to GME's first big FTD spike in September and the July/Jan share price), essentially replacing the short position (shares are needed to exercise)
|
||||
|
||||
In either case, as with ETF/ETN schemes, the trader who was short is essentially paying the MM for access to the 35 day settlement exception.
|
||||
|
||||
(??????????????)
|
||||
|
||||
4\. What You Know For Sure\
|
||||
Back to September. Hedge funds and Market Makers have been turning retail short sales into Ferraris and Ivy League athletic scholarships for the past 6 years. They successfully [strangled multiple businesses into bankruptcy](https://web.archive.org/web/20210504013036/https://stockhouse.com/news/newswire/2016/01/19/how-short-sellers-are-killing-companies-and-market). multiple businesses into bankruptcy and now flu-season was approaching amid not only a global pandemic, but a global microchip shortage that completely halted distribution of GameStop's single biggest sales driver: gaming consoles.
|
||||
|
||||
Its important to note that the market is a dynamic system that is intentionally confusing. There are hundreds of multi-million dollar firms placing thousands of bets, and generating liquidity through short selling is a genuine part of a MM's job.
|
||||
|
||||
That said, through BD/MM affiliation that benefits both parties, even if caught and fined - the potential for 1 or 2 disingenuous traders to begin contagion is a legitimate threat. [This video originally from 2003](https://web.archive.org/web/20210504013036/https://youtu.be/I0WXg5T3cBE) describes this in more detail.
|
||||
|
||||
This is highly speculative and I should probably leave it out but fuck it
|
||||
|
||||
In my opinion, given ample opportunity, deep fucking incentive, sound rationalization, and chicken shit regulation - it is seems possible that, on a market wide scale, 100+ million shares that should have failed-to-deliver are quickly, and sometimes fraudulently, shuffled --- via married puts, buy-writes, ETF manipulation including ETF/ETN creation units from a Market Maker, and writing naked calls --- to maintain the virtual appearance of buying/borrowing shares to settle the FTD.
|
||||
|
||||
The fuck was I saying
|
||||
|
||||
Oh yeah September
|
||||
|
||||
Back in August, [short interest reached $426 million](https://web.archive.org/web/20210504013036/https://www.marketbeat.com/stocks/NYSE/GME/short-interest/). Correct me if I'm wrong, but at ~$4.70 share price, that's over 90 million shares sold short. If that's accurate, that's uhh.. a little aggressive there, chief
|
||||
|
||||
So by September, fails start rolling in. Phil is seeing FTD tags in his nightmares - *Fuck, how many calls did I sell? How many shares do I have? Are those shares borrowed? What the fuck is a DTC??*
|
||||
|
||||
At this point, Phil has to decide between:
|
||||
|
||||
a) cutting his possibly massive losses and unwinding one of the biggest cash cows beneath the [64+ billion dollars](https://web.archive.org/web/20210504013036/https://www.google.com/amp/s/mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKBN29U00R) hedge funds made in 2020, or
|
||||
|
||||
b) paying a small fee and risking another small fee to double down and stay short
|
||||
|
||||
Oh, let's not forget that cold/flu season is approaching amid, not only a global pandemic, but a *global microchip shortage* that will probably slow distribution of GameStop's single biggest sales driver: gaming consoles.
|
||||
|
||||
Maybe Phil was smart and got out. Obviously his friends didn't. 4.2 million shares failed in 2 days, October 13-14, and the 30m share Niagara Fails of December and January suggests some quadrupled down in October.
|
||||
|
||||
5\. Everything in the World is Magic...\
|
||||
Here's a puzzle:
|
||||
|
||||
Assume someone wanted to use some of the the neat and totally legalish tactics I so concisely described to indefinitely roll FTDs into the future ---
|
||||
|
||||
Using public data, estimate just how heinous GME's actual rolling FTD number *could* be.
|
||||
|
||||
I'll shoot for a realistic degree of atrocity
|
||||
|
||||
(my limited understanding of) The Rules:
|
||||
|
||||
-Roughly, ( beneficial ownership ) --- ( shares outstanding ) = ( total shares owed )
|
||||
|
||||
- Broker-Dealers have 2 trading days after a client is short to cover. Otherwise they report a fail and have 6 trading days after the fail to cover - which can be done btw by buying *or borrowing* shares
|
||||
|
||||
- *BUT* with a little Market Makipulation, BDs can temporarily report short on the 5th day after failure, wait 2 trading days before reporting a fail, then have 35 calendar days after the fail to settle
|
||||
|
||||
- Evidence of this process should include FTD spikes in one or more ETF's containing GME ~6-8 days after a large number of GME fails
|
||||
|
||||
( edit: [This post](https://web.archive.org/web/20210504013036/https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/n4axra/95_gme_etfs_3_months_of_ftds_visualized/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf) by [u/Leenixus](https://web.archive.org/web/20210504013036/https://www.reddit.com/u/Leenixus/) overlays FTDs in GME and its ETFs and compares to other securities. )
|
||||
|
||||
- Accurately accounting for FTDs concealed with synthetic options positions and ETF's is impossible, but I'll do my best to explain my estimates. I'll start by identifying FTD spikes, usually in groups of 3 or 6 days (because of the T+3 and T+6 settlement requirements).
|
||||
|
||||
- Oh btw, Citadel, the BD/MM in question here, [clears 99% of all options trades](https://web.archive.org/web/20210504013036/https://www.citadelsecurities.com/products/equities-and-options/), so if there's open interest in a contract, statistically there's a 99% chance Citadel is liable to settle it. I'll bump that to 100% for kicks
|
||||
|
||||
Warning\
|
||||
??????
|
||||
|
||||
Numbers Ahead\
|
||||
//
|
||||
|
||||
This entire post is built on using data to speculate.
|
||||
|
||||
The following argument, however logical or likely it may or may not be, is, obviously, speculative.
|
||||
|
||||
The puzzle is complex. The answer is likely more complex.
|
||||
|
||||
Apes just hodl that's not so hard.
|
||||
|
||||
//
|
||||
|
||||
GameStop Corp\
|
||||
[Fintel data](https://web.archive.org/web/20210504013036/https://fintel.io/ss/us/gme) (note: Month markers on the FTD graph mark the *middle* of the month) shows:
|
||||
|
||||
~4.1 million GME shares failing from September 2-9 (6 trading days)
|
||||
|
||||
~5.8m shares failed September 21-25 (5 days)
|
||||
|
||||
~4.2m shares failed October 14-15 (2 days)
|
||||
|
||||
~5.6m shares failing December 2-8 (5 days)
|
||||
|
||||
~4.2m shares failing December 17-24 (6 days)
|
||||
|
||||
~3.3m shares falling from January 5-11 (5 days)
|
||||
|
||||
~6m shares failing January 13-21 (6 days)
|
||||
|
||||
~5.1m shares failing January 26-28 (3 days)
|
||||
|
||||
XRT\
|
||||
[XRT](https://web.archive.org/web/20210504013036/https://fintel.io/ss/us/xrt), GameStop's most liquid ETF, had:
|
||||
|
||||
~3m shares failing September 28 to October 6 (7 days)
|
||||
|
||||
~2m shares failing December 15-17 (3 days)
|
||||
|
||||
~5.7m shares failing January 28 - February 3 (5 days)
|
||||
|
||||
You can roughly see how XRT's FTD spikes fit between GameStop's. The 2 most other liquid ETF's had spikes of ~100k or so.
|
||||
|
||||
Based on the FTD data, let's say, ohhh Idk - 4 million FTDs are rolling into January, using the ETF/ETN tactic to alternate between GME and XRT.
|
||||
|
||||
Citadel claims to clear virtually all options trades, and based on [GME option data](https://web.archive.org/web/20210504013036/https://www.barchart.com/stocks/quotes/GME/options?expiration=2021-05-07-w&moneyness=allRows&view=stacked_ohl) call total OI is 104,221 on 7/16 and 1/21 alone. Total call OI from the other 10 expiration dates is ~105k for a grand total of ~210k interest.
|
||||
|
||||
um\
|
||||
If [Citadel is clearing 99%of all options order flow](https://web.archive.org/web/20210504013036/https://www.citadelsecurities.com/products/equities-and-options/), and they're constantly [delta-gamma hedging](https://web.archive.org/web/20210504013036/https://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/deltagamma-hedging.asp), what better way to roll a FTD than to:
|
||||
|
||||
1. Make long calls a little cheaper and gobble up the bids.
|
||||
|
||||
2. Collect all 210k premium payments and now, as a MM, they have to [delta-gamma hedge](https://web.archive.org/web/20210504013036/https://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/deltagamma-hedging.asp) those calls to claim a riskless position.
|
||||
|
||||
3. Use all those "for hedging" shares to satisfyextend the FTD requirement, then strategically dump the shares hedging all the calls *you think* will expire OTM, since no hedge is ultimately needed for a call never exercised.
|
||||
|
||||
4. EZ game, now Citadel gets to collect premiums for resetting some FTDs and driving the price down
|
||||
|
||||
Delta hedging would typically require somewhere between 9-99 shares per call, with more shares needed for deeper ITM calls.
|
||||
|
||||
Taking the 210k (and counting) call OI as a whole, of which Citadel claims to clear 99%, if 50 shares are delta-hedged on average, that grants Citadel access to 10.5m shares for allocating to failed trades.
|
||||
|
||||
Of course not all of them would allocated, but the allocation process would essentially be the same as that time Phil lost Grandma's Monster. This would mean that some portion, maybe a large portion, of GME's daily trading is Citadel allocating and eventually repurchasing shares from its clients with high FTD's.
|
||||
|
||||
And maybe if there aren't selling enough calls, the resort to [Buy-Writes](https://web.archive.org/web/20210504013036/https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/comments/lylvrb/update_35_1625_million_of_deep_itm_gme_calls_have/)...
|
||||
|
||||
6\. Eventually, Trust Fails\
|
||||
What in the depressing fuck kind of title is that
|
||||
|
||||
Anyway remember when Phil's MM made a WADD and Phil traded his wife for it?
|
||||
|
||||
[XRT's Options data](https://web.archive.org/web/20210504013036/https://www.barchart.com/etfs-funds/quotes/XRT/options?expiration=2021-05-07-w&moneyness=inTheMoney) reveals ~51k call OI over 11 dates, 45k of which are concentrated in only 3 dates: 5/21, 6/18, and 9/17. Notice how those dates fit nicely between 7/16 and 1/21, the two dates housing half of GMEs call OI.
|
||||
|
||||
*tinfoil time*
|
||||
|
||||
Ken sells calls and hedges and juggles FTD's and Ken plans to pretty much do it until he retires. Well when those $69,420 calls expire, he should still have the one share he had to buy as a hedge. If he gave that share to Phil to cover both their asse(t)s he needs to either buy his share back or find another one. Well Kenny's no rookie - he's been doing slight-of-shares with ETF's since, like, 2006 - so he buys or whips up or promises to whip up an XRT burger and everything's ???? and ????????.
|
||||
|
||||
Yeah that's not gonna make sense if you skipped the foreplay, sorry.
|
||||
|
||||
Well the only thing better than XRT is free XRT, so Ken can just sell cheap XRT calls, forcing delta hedges on XRT, then crack open the XRT and allocate the GameStop.
|
||||
|
||||
But even if all 50k XRT calls were hedged with 100 shares, GME is only 7% of XRT. So 5m XRT shares equates to 350k GME shares...
|
||||
|
||||
*Allow me to introduce:* [IWM](https://web.archive.org/web/20210504013036/https://fintel.io/so/us/gme/ishares-trust-ishares-russell-2000-etf)
|
||||
|
||||
IWM is the iShares Russel 2000, and they announced a 15% increase in GME on 2/25/21. Funny, I didn't hear much about it.
|
||||
|
||||
IWM holds GME at a humble 0.35%. Take a guess at what [IWMs options chain](https://web.archive.org/web/20210504013036/https://www.barchart.com/etfs-funds/quotes/IWM/options) looks like...
|
||||
|
||||
You *may* not guess a call OI of 1.56 million over the 15 expiry dates from now until 1/21/22. Hedging those at an average of 50 shares/call represents 78m shares. At 0.35%, thats 2.7m GME shares.
|
||||
|
||||
By the way, if an extra 2.7 million shares available to extend shorts, purely in call hedges, doesn't shake you, remember GameStop is in over 60 different ETFs.
|
||||
|
||||
Oh and it gets better
|
||||
|
||||
I've been talking about calls for a while but *puts* exist too. If you somehow managed to read through this whole post you'll remember what the SEC said about married puts...
|
||||
|
||||
The put OI for IWM, up to 1/21, is 3.7 million. ~750k of those puts are at-the-money. With GME at .35% of IWM, that potentially represents 2.6 million GME shares capable of floating FTD's via married puts in IWM.
|
||||
|
||||
Married puts *should* have ATM puts to maintain the short position, but they don't need to be ATM to settle a FTD - one reason MPs are used over just re-borrowing (and the reason they're illegal) is they function by claiming one asset as collateral in two transactions. There are 100 shares married to the put (risk-less position to skirt regulation) and the same 100 shares are used to close the FTD.
|
||||
|
||||
The MP provides the paperwork loophole but it's not necessary for the short position. Phil can just borrow shares ( [IWM shortvol% was apparently 74% on 4/30](https://web.archive.org/web/20210504013036/http://shortvolumes.com/?t=iwm) ), buy a worthless put to marry and instantly divorce, and now you did the paper magic and are still short. Maybe they call it a one night stand Idk
|
||||
|
||||
The total put OI of all strikes with over 10k OI is over 2.5 million.. there are puts at dozens of strikes trading for $1. If ONE THIRD of those were used for disposable MP's, that's another 2.6 GME shares.
|
||||
|
||||
Which is interesting, considering GME has [329k put OI at the LOWEST 2 STRIKES on 7/16 and 1/21](https://web.archive.org/web/20210504013036/https://www.barchart.com/stocks/quotes/GME/options?expiration=2022-01-21-m&moneyness=allRows&view=stacked_ohl). Even more interesting about those 329k puts - when they were being gobbled up in late January, ~200k of them, they averaged their highest prices of all time.
|
||||
|
||||
50 cent puts... While GameStop was soaring. Went from $4 in December to $15 on Jan. 28. Right.
|
||||
|
||||
Guess I could take a shot at that puzzle now.
|
||||
|
||||
Total potential-shares-for-allocation estimate:
|
||||
|
||||
-Citadel delta hedging call order flow: 10.5m
|
||||
|
||||
-[The suspected Buy-Write trades](https://web.archive.org/web/20210504013036/https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/comments/lylvrb/update_35_1625_million_of_deep_itm_gme_calls_have/): 14,500 calls = 1.4m shares
|
||||
|
||||
-Citadel delta hedging IWM calls: 2.7m
|
||||
|
||||
-Married puts in IWM: ~2.6m
|
||||
|
||||
-Married puts in GME: up to 32m.. but I'll leave these out
|
||||
|
||||
Total: 17.2m GME shares
|
||||
|
||||
If half of these were actually used to roll fails, 8.6m + the 4-5m already rolling in the FTD data + 11m reported short volume = ~26 million shares sold short
|
||||
|
||||
Including the GME puts and everything else - it'd be ~64 million.
|
||||
|
||||
And *excluding* married puts, Citadel has access to over 13m GME shares, solely from delta hedging GME and IWM calls, to potentially distribute among shorts about to fail.
|
||||
|
||||
Do not forget that I don't know what the fuck I'm talking about. I'm not an expert in this stuff, I just had surgery two months ago and it pisses me off when shit doesn't make sense.
|
||||
|
||||
These people have been playing this game for years and I'm sure there are dozens of other ways reversals can be achieved, they get fined like 100k for this shit and without it.. well if it's bad enough they'll go bankrupt.
|
||||
|
||||
//
|
||||
|
||||
My point here is - where there's smoke there's fire, and there's so much smoke in these numbers I can't taste the purple in my lunch.
|
||||
|
||||
Obviously none of that was advice or conclusive I can't even spell conclusive
|
||||
|
||||
//
|
||||
|
||||
All this shit is meant to be be confusing. The internet revolutionized trading, especially options. In fact they started becoming popular in the 90's, right around when ETF's came along. The SEC talked about two ways options could be used to hide FTD data - and I liked a presentation talking about how ETF's can be used to do the same thing. The AMA last week mentioned it, too.
|
||||
|
||||
All of these loopholes serve to provide Citadel, who claims to clear 99% of options order flow, with enough shares *merely in hedges* to juggle 13 million fails. Add to that buy-write transactions, married puts, naked calls, ETNs, and all the other autistic things possible in a system so complex, who tf knows how many shares they might be juggling on paper.
|
||||
|
||||
The options, to me, look like a smoking gun. Fails in GME's ETFs repeatedly fall between fails in GME, suggesting some number of fails are being rolled with ETFs. The number of ETFs with institutional ownership over 100% 6 months ago suggests many of those shares used to cover came from ETNs.
|
||||
|
||||
The fact that the bulk of call OI in IWM and XRT falls neatly between the call OI in GME suggests these options are, in some capacity, related to rolling fails into the future.
|
||||
|
||||
THAT SAID -
|
||||
|
||||
Regulation changes increasing margin requirements or decreasing settlement times, would begin to unwind these positions. And-
|
||||
|
||||
A share recall would bring the buying pressure of every IOU floating around because of this horseshit.
|
||||
|
||||
A bet on GME is a bet again Wall Street's integrity.
|
||||
|
||||
But - don't just trust me on this stuff, seriously, use the links, find some bullshit that looks weird and ask yourself why it's weird. I promise, there's lots of weird shit. Start with the 1500 $1.50 calls someone bought / Citadel sold for 1/21.
|
||||
|
||||
And the 100k 50 cent puts that *weren't* bought in January probably traded for under $5 so I'm sure plenty of that is legit. On the other hand, I do remember a post saying put OI in early March was obscenely high but I can't find it anymore.
|
||||
|
||||
If you just scrolled on down here and read the "my point is" part, no worries. The post was just some bullshit anyway - 11m reported shorts is an infinite short/float % because there is no float.
|
||||
|
||||
Oh and if really read this whole fucking thing, message me and I'll fly you to dinner next year.
|
||||
|
||||
* * * * *
|
||||
|
||||
*This is not financial advice!*\
|
||||
*This post was **anonymously** submitted via *[*www.superstonk.net*](https://www.superstonk.net/)* and reviewed by our team. Submitted posts are unedited and published as long as they follow *[r/Superstonk](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/)* rules.*
|
@ -0,0 +1,87 @@
|
||||
Greetings, Apes. Let's clarify some things about average trade sizes, transactions reporting, and the FINRA ADF.
|
||||
================================================================================================================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/MarketMicrostructure](https://www.reddit.com/user/MarketMicrostructure/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/na5drq/greetings_apes_lets_clarify_some_things_about/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
|
||||
[Education 👨🏫 | Data 🔢](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22Education%20%F0%9F%91%A8%E2%80%8D%F0%9F%8F%AB%20%7C%20Data%20%F0%9F%94%A2%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||
Hello Apes,
|
||||
|
||||
I'm Zak, a colleague of [/u/dlauer](https://www.reddit.com/u/dlauer/) who I've been working with for the past 5 years on all sorts of projects. He told me how fascinating and engaging of a community you all have built, and after spending a couple of days looking around, I completely agree. It's really great how much the general attitude is concerned with really trying to figure out what's true, and that there's a lot of openness and eagerness to learn (especially when a whole lot of people would probably find most of these topics incredibly boring). While I mostly stay buried in development and analytics tasks, I hope to spend a little more time here following along with what you're all up to.
|
||||
|
||||
I appreciate the moderating crew for letting me post some stuff while I work on obtaining that sweet karma.
|
||||
|
||||
Problems & Background
|
||||
|
||||
Some ongoing themes around here involve questions about if/when/where trades are reported, theories about what small average trade sizes mean, and what dark pools, internalizers, and the FINRA ADF are. These things are all closely intertwined. And since there's a lot of effort going into trying to draw conclusions from the data, I think a lot of those efforts would be improved with a few contexts and ideas.
|
||||
|
||||
Before any of that, I have to admit that I share Dave's skepticism of the usefulness of the modern US market structure. While some vested interests point to certain price-improvement metrics regarding PFOF and internalization as 'proof' that it is beneficial to market welfare, I'm not sure this tells the whole story. Just because the second-order effects on market stability and quality are hard to measure doesn't mean they don't matter. It's possible a narrow class of people benefits at the expense of many more. I'm not ready to draw a conclusion one way or the other, but I am more than a bit annoyed at how easily this gets brushed aside.
|
||||
|
||||
Last disclaimer: everything here is to the best of my knowledge from a few years spent developing analytics for institutional clients to measure their execution quality and assess trading performance resulting from routing orders to different brokers who would then execute the orders in a mix of on- and off-exchange transactions. Before that, most of my career was spent in futures, which tend to be much nicer for simple people like myself.
|
||||
|
||||
Are all trades reported to the tape?
|
||||
|
||||
Generally, yes (unless someone is breaking the rules). By any reasonable interpretation of the rules, all FINRA members have an obligation to report transactions. Depending on the parties involved in the transaction and where it's taking place, there are also rules outlining who has the responsibility.
|
||||
|
||||
For a very thorough treatment of how different types of transactions generate reporting requirements see [FINRA 6308B](https://www.finra.org/rules-guidance/rulebooks/finra-rules/6380b). There's a lot of concrete examples.
|
||||
|
||||
There were some questions about whether Citadel could have a brokerage account at Robinhood and then trade with Robinhood customers without generating a report. I discuss the different scenarios that this could fall into and show that they all generate reporting obligations in this post: <https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/n9331h/dave_lauer_clears_things_up_about_the_dark_pool/gxp36ur/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3>
|
||||
|
||||
At the end of the post above, I qualified it with:
|
||||
|
||||
> None of this is to say that rule violations can't happen or don't happen. They do happen. Bank of America was caught [falsifying its trade reports](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-bankofamerica-new-york-settlement/bank-of-america-pays-42-million-fine-in-new-york-masking-probe-idUSKBN1GZ27H) by altering who it said the customers were executing against. Last month, it was reported that Robinhood was [failing to report](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-robinhood-regulation-tradereporting-e/exclusive-robinhood-failed-to-disclose-certain-trade-executions-to-public-feed-idUSKBN2BV0FZ) transactions for its fractional shares.
|
||||
|
||||
Unfortunately, sometimes when we choose our words carefully or point out past abuses in specific cases, people's imaginations can run away with it and start seeing abuse everywhere.
|
||||
|
||||
I think we clearly need much stronger oversight systems to catch abuses much sooner. But it's important to know that when most of these abuses have been caught, it wasn't from analyzing public data. It's incredibly hard to draw any reasonable conclusions from public data. (However, Dave and I have been working on some projects to do this effectively. Hopefully, we'll be able to share soon.)
|
||||
|
||||
The FINRA ADF is not the boogeyman
|
||||
|
||||
Some people this morning were concerned about the GME volume labeled as FINRA ADF. But this is actually a "catch-all" designation for off-exchange transactions:
|
||||
|
||||
> FINRA ADF is not a dark pool. In fact, no trading occurs on it at all. The volume you're seeing is mostly retail volume from traders like yourselves.
|
||||
>
|
||||
> In general, when any FINRA member conducts a transaction, either for themselves or on behalf of a customer, they are required to report the transaction to the tape. Transactions that don't occur on any of the lit exchanges still need a way to enter into the SIP feed so that all market participants can be aware that a transaction has taken place. The FINRA ADF is the exchange code for those transactions.
|
||||
>
|
||||
> When a discount broker like Robinhood routes an order to Citadel and Citadel fills the order, that is considered an OTC transaction and is reportable. Citadel reports this transaction to a Trade Reporting Facility and it becomes a part of the time and sales record for that day.
|
||||
|
||||
During the trading day, all non-exchange transactions for reg nms stocks are reported in this way. This includes dark pools and internalizers of retail order flow.
|
||||
|
||||
Below is a sample of some GME trades from NYSE TAQ data, which is historical data from the SIP feeds. From [the spec,](https://www.nyse.com/publicdocs/nyse/data/Daily_TAQ_Client_Spec_v3.0a.pdf) you can see Exchange Code "D" corresponds to the FINRA ADF. When the Exchange Code is "D" the TRF column is populated with one of the three specific [TRF facilities](https://www.finra.org/filing-reporting/trade-reporting-facility-trf).
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/s5o4zdhdbjy61.png?width=799&format=png&auto=webp&s=138cca33b04e50133c239f9ba6634a2a7a627bc2)
|
||||
|
||||
Snapshot of SIP data with FINRA ADF exchange and a TRF code
|
||||
|
||||
In general, the workflow goes like this: one or more FINRA members conduct a transaction; based on the details of the transaction, the member responsible for reporting sends it to the TRF facility with whom they have a relationship; the TRF facility reports it to the SIPs.
|
||||
|
||||
A month later you are able to see more specific venue breakdowns for where the volume actually occurred. The [FINRA OTC Transparency](https://otctransparency.finra.org/otctransparency) website lets you get all that data by week. "ATS Issue Data" is for registered dark pools; "OTC (Non-ATS) Issue Data" is for internalizers.
|
||||
|
||||
Small average trade sizes don't necessarily imply manipulative behavior
|
||||
|
||||
One of the recurring themes I come across in my work with these sorts of complex systems with a lot of feedback and adaptation is how a tremendous amount of entirely different scenarios can generate the same macro-observable outcomes. This is persistently true with market data. When coming up with an explanation for observed data, it's first important to be aware of many possible ways that data could have been generated. Having good background information will help you estimate what explanations are likely. But to be truly rigorous to where you can be confident with a conclusion, you need to know how to rule out alternative explanations.
|
||||
|
||||
From the previous two sections, we've already seen that retail order flow that is routed to an internalizer will show up as FINRA ADF. Since retail order flow tends to have very small sizes, it is no surprise that the average trade size for FINRA ADF will be small.
|
||||
|
||||
But I've seen some other threads that also try to dig into the dark pool-specific, "ATS Issue Data", from the OTC Transparency website. These threads also reveal the average dark pool trade size can often be 100-200 shares, and many people seem very angry about this.
|
||||
|
||||
Having had the opportunity to analyze the way that the trade desks of large $10B+ funds execute their orders, I will propose a pretty simple explanation for why this happens:
|
||||
|
||||
- It's common to hear institutional trade desks talk about how large their position is in terms of a stock's average daily volume (ADV), because this metric gives a decent heuristic of how much they can execute at a time without having an impact on the market price --- or alternatively, how much they will have to move the market in order to close their position in a short period of time.
|
||||
|
||||
- As a result, when an institutional trade desk needs to get into or out of a desired position, it will typically break up the total desired quantity into many smaller trades and execute over several days (or longer) so as to not move the market all at once.
|
||||
|
||||
- The trade desk will then route the smaller pieces to different brokers with whom they have relationships. This is called sending a "parent order" to a broker. The brokers offer a variety of "execution algorithms" that have different behaviors which the trade desk can select from in order to achieve their target size with the desired market impact and time constraints.
|
||||
|
||||
- When a broker algorithm receives a parent order, it breaks that up into "child orders" to route to different trading venues using a combination of active and passive orders. These venues are often a mix of lit exchanges and dark pools.
|
||||
|
||||
- The overall goal for institutions trading large size is to not "show your hand" and not let any one venue or broker have all the information about the position you're trying to get into or out of. Because if someone knows you're trying to execute 2 days of ADV, they can rush into the position now and then wait while you have an impact on the market.
|
||||
|
||||
There are many other mechanisms for moving large size, but given the enormous variety of trading venues and the desire to minimize market impact, it is not surprising that the average trade size would be small.
|
||||
|
||||
In general, I think we need to know these sorts of tedious things so that we can make sure we're asking the right questions. If we accept that small average trade sizes aren't evidence of malicious behavior, then we can get to the important question: should we even have all of these dark venues leading to all of this complexity in the first place?
|
189
DD/2021-05-11-Theory-of-all-Price-Movements.md
Normal file
189
DD/2021-05-11-Theory-of-all-Price-Movements.md
Normal file
@ -0,0 +1,189 @@
|
||||
Enter Zen Mode. The theory of all price movements - how price spikes up AND price spikes down are artifical - and SI% might skyrocket.
|
||||
======================================================================================================================================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/Criand](https://www.reddit.com/user/Criand/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/n9qv27/enter_zen_mode_the_theory_of_all_price_movements/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
|
||||
[DD 👨🔬](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22DD%20%F0%9F%91%A8%E2%80%8D%F0%9F%94%AC%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||
0\. Preface
|
||||
|
||||
Not a financial advisor. I also have no financial experience or qualifications. Thought I'd make that clear per a commenter on my last post who wasn't happy with me. ;)
|
||||
|
||||
Also apologies if some of this doesn't read right. A bit buzzed typing it up lmao. I'd be happy to clarify anything in the comments.
|
||||
|
||||
Hello apes. You might remember my previous posts. But just in case, I'll add them here once more because I'd like to expand on them a bit further.
|
||||
|
||||
[The Danger Zone and the SI Report Loop](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/n792mf/all_shorts_must_cover_theyre_entering_the_danger/)
|
||||
|
||||
Summary: Short positions are required to be reported twice per month on "Short Interest Report Settlement Dates". Between each of these settlement dates, the price has a volatile move both up and down. Consistently between each cycle is a higher price floor. Melvin received their $2.75 billion cash injection the day $GME spiked to approximately $160. They have crashed the price from $350 every time. As they bleed money, it appears that the margin call price lives in a "Danger Zone" between $160 and $350.
|
||||
|
||||
[Net Capital Bomb - AKA The Margin Call](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/n4h832/major_deep_itm_call_option_dates_a_massive_net/)
|
||||
|
||||
Summary: Citadel and any other MM that have been complicit in naked shorting of GameStop now worry about net capital (or in a sense their own Margin Call). They must have sufficient capital to support their debts, such as short positions, so that they can payout in the event of a default. The more shorts they open, the higher debt they have, and thus the more capital they need to raise in order to avoid going net negative and violating [Net Capital Requirements Rule 240.15c3-1](https://www.law.cornell.edu/cfr/text/17/240.15c3-1).
|
||||
|
||||
I've seen a TON of posts regarding TA, wedges, MACD crossing, RSI, "breakout signals", etc. but I always wondered why these patterns repeated. And of course, wondered why nothing would happen even if we had 'bullish' breakout signals. We'll see posts about wedges breaking and attributing it to "shorts using all their ammo" or "whales buying it up" but I have reason to believe that the price spikes, both up AND down, are caused by the shorters. Don't stress about the daily movements. Seriously. Your mental health will thank you. :)
|
||||
|
||||
GME is a curious case. For that I truly think there is an underlying reason for the price movements. Which is why I started looking into major option dates, came up with T+13, scrapped T+13, and eventually arrived at the SI Report Loop theory. I mean, that isn't to say the major option dates still don't play a role here - in fact I'm going to touch on that subject in this post as well.
|
||||
|
||||
This is all just a working theory trying to explain why the price is moving the way it is. I would love to continue building on it, fitting in pieces from other apes, or until the theory crumbles. But so far, it has made me enter complete Zen Mode. I don't even care about the price. I'll explain why.
|
||||
|
||||
<https://preview.redd.it/eoldh4kokey61.png?width=744&format=png&auto=webp&s=3bd4fd5fe7a613af88cc80bc0ae0b4272d2d9fb5>
|
||||
|
||||
1\. Hedgies Are Trapped Between a Rock and a Hard Place
|
||||
|
||||
They're truly stuck. Things were honestly looking in Melvin/Point72/Citadels favor back in February but it has since been a huuuge middle finger back at them because retail got their second wind as of DFV doubling down on February 19th.
|
||||
|
||||
Let's take a look back at the data [/u/broccaaa](https://www.reddit.com/u/broccaaa/) found for SI% versus PUT OI. This is my favorite chart, ever, by the way. When ever I have doubts I just look at this chart.
|
||||
|
||||
- The top, in orange, is PUT OI. The top, in blue, is CALL OI. Both PUT and CALL OI is reported in millions.
|
||||
|
||||
- The bottom, in green, is SI%. The bottom, in blue, is FTD % of float.
|
||||
|
||||
<https://preview.redd.it/fsryz4xvxey61.png?width=1846&format=png&auto=webp&s=8d5c3fb036686338d555bb56d6c0cd008a9b0dd4>
|
||||
|
||||
When the January runup happened, the shorters hit the motherfucking emergency button to block buys on exchanges. This allowed them to fake-out to the world that they 'covered' by dropping SI% like a rock. This killed motivation worldwide and the price hovered around $40 throughout February. How did this happen? Well, most likely by hiding the shorts in PUTs. You'll see that PUT OI goes absolutely insane when the SI% dropped. How insane? At it's peak, the PUT OI was roughly 2.00e6 = 2 million PUTs = 200 million shares worth. Does that sound normal for a stock with only 70 million outstanding shares and only ~50 million float?
|
||||
|
||||
What's even better is from this data that [/u/yelyah2](https://www.reddit.com/u/yelyah2/) collected, we can see what options were used to hide these shorts. I've highlighted in red the data from January 26th, just before the craziness occurred. And then you can see what the PUT OI was for each date prior to expiration (dashes following). As you can see they spread their shorts pretty evenly between these major dates.
|
||||
|
||||
<https://preview.redd.it/f69s5ephyey61.png?width=1112&format=png&auto=webp&s=374144d795e4f7bf41024863c8b473ddd675b112>
|
||||
|
||||
So it's just a working theory of course, but every single one of these dates expiration should result in shorts popping out. In this case, roughly 400,000 OI = 40 million shorts per major option expiration (Feb 19, March 19, April 16, July 16, January 2022). They have to choose between a rock and a hard place:
|
||||
|
||||
- A) Delaying the shorts once more by hiding them in more PUTs, costing money to do so
|
||||
|
||||
- B) Let the shorts be calculated in the SI% report upon the SI Report Settlement Date.
|
||||
|
||||
I'd like to note that with either A or B, the price is not effected. They are hiding the shorts in PUTs. They're not exercising these PUTs. They are simply storing their shorts away for a later date, but it costs them money to do so each time.
|
||||
|
||||
Which then enters the [Net Capital theory](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/n4h832/major_deep_itm_call_option_dates_a_massive_net/) that I posted about.
|
||||
|
||||
If they want to delay their shorts longer, they'll need to spend more money. The more money they spend, then the less capital they have. The less capital they have, the easier it is for them to go net negative and essentially become margin called. Ever wonder why crypt0 and other assets are doing weird pumps and dumps? Yeah. That could be why.
|
||||
|
||||
They are probably on their last legs trying so hard to raise capital to push things out while simultaneously trying to remain net positive. Check the dates when d0ggi3 c0in started to pump. January 28th. April 14th. May 4th. Interesting coincidences, right? Am I crazy to think we'll see another d0ge pump on May 13th-May 17th, the next cutoff for net capital?
|
||||
|
||||
2\. Why the price spikes up AND down are artificial
|
||||
|
||||
I'm going to steal some TA. Though only OBV because that's actually pretty significant. For any normal stock you should see OBV pretty much trending with a rough shape of the stock price. GME is... different. There's been very little volume on the spikes downward, implying that none of retail is selling and that the spikes down are artificial. And I truly believe that retail is not selling. I mean sure, there's probably some paper hands out there, but they're pretty much gone. Sorry [/u/HomeDepotHank69](https://www.reddit.com/u/HomeDepotHank69/) - I'm stealing your OBV chart from your [Theory of Everything](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/n66tzh/hanks_definitive_gme_theory_of_everything/):
|
||||
|
||||
<https://preview.redd.it/5dcqu7qmjey61.png?width=1119&format=png&auto=webp&s=d19795d493bd74c09ddb5cbc5dbe66479b12cfd2>
|
||||
|
||||
But the OBV charct doesn't really explain why the price drops are artificial. It's literally just a chart of OBV increasing over time. It theoretically shows that retail isn't selling, but what exactly is going on here??? That's what has always bugged me. Because I want to know the underlying reason as to why the price moves. Which then led to the SI Report Loop theory.
|
||||
|
||||
To recap from the "SI Report Loop" theory, below we have a chart showing each [SI Report Settlement Date](https://www.finra.org/filing-reporting/regulatory-filing-systems/short-interest). The Hedgies need to wipe out their shorts by these dates, otherwise they risk a spike in SI% upon the receipt date. They do not want SI% to spike, otherwise it screams to the world, "We haven't covered shit!". So ever since January 29th they've been stuck hiding their short position because they can't risk having retail come back in. Retail will shove a big ol' banana up their ass if they let SI% skyrocket again. But, obviously, from the price increase since February 24, they're fucked anyway because it's costing them more to hide their shorts every time.
|
||||
|
||||
<https://preview.redd.it/wutbcjnwvdy61.png?width=1385&format=png&auto=webp&s=d63c756cf0aa4444366e614c8db4f708a187e3d3>
|
||||
|
||||
I'll refer to the time between these Settlement Dates as a "SI Report Cycle".
|
||||
|
||||
- E.g. Feb 26-Mar 15 is a cycle because it starts and ends on two sequential settlement dates.
|
||||
|
||||
Not only do they have to worry about hiding new shorts they open up during these SI Report Cycles, they need to worry about FTDs from retail buy pressure, and potentially old shorts that were hidden in options expirations that I mentioned in Section 1. For example, if 400,000 PUTs carried shorts and expired on March 19, they'd go, "Oh shit. We have to deal with those too". That's MORE money they have to spend in that cycle. With a higher price floor, that's even MORE money to continue their bullshit.
|
||||
|
||||
It is not a cycle of FTDs. The FTDs are satisfied when they first pop up. They satisfy these FTDs with synthetics, thus increasing their total short position. The FTDs are not "pushed out" but rather their short position is pushed out.
|
||||
|
||||
The cycle they battle is delaying their short position and avoiding the true SI% from appearing. Which at this point is probably well over 200%. Pushing these out costs them money, but does not influence the price because they don't ever exercise the PUTs used to hide the shorts.
|
||||
|
||||
The artificial spikes/drops are due to shorters combating retail buy pressure which occurs between SI Report Cycles. The SHORTERS are the cause of the spikes up and the spikes down.
|
||||
|
||||
If you look closely, we get volatile movement up, and volatile movement downward between each SI Report Cycle. Every. Cycle. Now why is that happening?
|
||||
|
||||
I am convinced that the volatile movement in price are caused entirely by hedgies fucking with the price in an attempt to suppress retail and shake them off. But their attacks are getting weaker because of wasting money on hiding shorts from major options in PUTs and getting closer and closer to going net negative in their net capital calculations.
|
||||
|
||||
Anyways, here's what most likely happens in each SI Report Cycle:
|
||||
|
||||
1. Retail buys in. FTDs pile up because they can't find legitimate shares.
|
||||
|
||||
2. Synthetic shares are created by shorting the stock to suppress the price. Price goes down.
|
||||
|
||||
3. Synthetic-covered ITM CALLs are bought up by shorters who need to deliver FTDs. Immediately exercised and price goes back up (net neutral effect, the synthetics shorting and then the FTDs being satisfied cancel out the volatility)
|
||||
|
||||
4. The price going into the next SI cycle is the "true" price due to retail buying. It's consistently going up because retail is buying and not selling. A slow burn upward.
|
||||
|
||||
5. They hide any additional shorts with OTM PUTs
|
||||
|
||||
We're seeing the price slowly rise because retail is applying buy pressure and not selling. If you removed all the fuckery, we would have seen the price steadily rise over time from January's $30 price point to today's ~$160 price point. Every single spike up is due to hedgies covering FTDs, and every single spike down is due to hedgies suppressing the price. THERE IS NO FRIENDLY WHALE causing these spikes. Each spike is caused by ITM CALLs being exercised. There is no "day" that retail suddenly has mass buy pressure causing the spikes. It is ALL because of the shorters are stuck trying to suppress the price and simultaneously having to satisfy FTDs between each SI Report Cycle.
|
||||
|
||||
Let's draw a rough estimate of price movement in green if no fuckery occurred. Connecting the price floors from January until now. Hmmm. Looks similar to OBV. Doesn't it?
|
||||
|
||||
<https://preview.redd.it/qr5ir9ujnfy61.png?width=1383&format=png&auto=webp&s=5a446fa62937f91c33e1b5b6d40655c64e3d6f47>
|
||||
|
||||
Let's roll back in time to January 13th. GME was the craze around the world. The price point was a meager $30 - many people could enter the game. Due to the hype, even the higher prices of $150-$400 was still attractive for enough buy pressure because the shorters were almost guaranteed to be fucked back then.
|
||||
|
||||
You know what happened in January? FTDs skyrocketed.
|
||||
|
||||
<https://preview.redd.it/zjv8dnk17fy61.png?width=1897&format=png&auto=webp&s=3d0a27d4c70e20dcc2e6f87d3d2995efe660d37b>
|
||||
|
||||
The first oh-shit-what-the-fuck-do-we-do moment happened to hedgies:
|
||||
|
||||
1. Retail buys in. A LOT. FTDs continue an insane pile up because they can't find legitimate shares since it was already over 100% shorted at the time.
|
||||
|
||||
2. FTDs need to be stopped. Buys are shut down so that they can satisfy the FTDs and hide their short position to try to kill off retail motivation (we covered! Don't come back now!)
|
||||
|
||||
3. Synthetic shares are created by shorting the stock to suppress the price. Price goes down coupled with retail paperhanding.
|
||||
|
||||
4. Synthetic-covered ITM CALLs are bought up by shorters who need to deliver FTDs. Immediately exercised and price skyrockets.
|
||||
|
||||
5. They hide any additional shorts with OTM PUTs
|
||||
|
||||
6. Combination of #2 and #3 caused the January fake squeeze. All FTDs are now satisfied and they've hidden their short position, but in this process OPENED MANY MORE SHORTS BY CREATING SYNTHETICS.
|
||||
|
||||
And thus, the entire January price spike was artificial and the drop was mostly artificial (note that as of exiting the January squeeze it still resulted in a higher price floor).
|
||||
|
||||
The price died off a bit from January, and it probably was going to swing back into the shorter's favor.
|
||||
|
||||
...Until DFV doubled down in February. It gave retail a second wind. A shitload of buy pressure entered due to the cheaper price, resulting in many FTDs that had to be satisfied through more synthetic shares. It was essentially a repeat of January because it was a cheap price point for retail to enter. Ever since then it has generated a lot of diamond goddamn hands because despite the artificial price swings, the game was still on.
|
||||
|
||||
And then of course, over time, the price has started to converge around $160 due to it being a little bit more expensive for retail to enter. We see higher price floors, but its tapering off because it's getting more expensive for retail to buy in. It's easier to have massive amounts of FTDs from buy pressure in the $40 price point than at the $160 price point. But that's not to say retail is losing. I'm simply explaining why it jumped so fast from a $40 price floor to a >$100 price floor and has since tapered off.
|
||||
|
||||
Literally any catalyst that causes buy pressure surge could cause a repeat of January and February because they'd have to deal with a shitload of FTDs.
|
||||
|
||||
GME has been tapering off with less volume because, well, less retail buying in over time due to a higher cost to enter. The price has been converging around ~$160 since March, and I believe that's all because of the higher price point of $160, so it's a little bit more difficult to get a lot of retail buy pressure due to it being more expensive than it was back before the February runup.
|
||||
|
||||
They continue to match the retail buy pressure with shorts (~50% short volume each day) to suppress the price, continuing to cause these ITM CALL purchases to satisfy retails' FTDs. But it's a fruitless effort because barely anyone is selling despite their tricks. And we see that it's fruitless because the price floor rises each SI Report Cycle. Every. Single. Time.
|
||||
|
||||
So now it's getting to the point where the price is back to the January levels when Melvin received their cash injection. They've been bleeding money trying to suppress SI% and dealing with FTDs by creating more synthetic shares. They can continue this effort... but it doesn't seem like they can much longer.
|
||||
|
||||
Here's a picture of Melvin/Citadel/Point72 as of this moment:
|
||||
|
||||
<https://preview.redd.it/dbbct5b2bfy61.png?width=1349&format=png&auto=webp&s=c1b4e4b3b04bbd32521edde3c9305a36a7dc9268>
|
||||
|
||||
3\. Hello old shorts - Why SI% might skyrocket
|
||||
|
||||
I'll leave you with this thought. I'll call back to the [SI Report Dates](https://www.finra.org/filing-reporting/regulatory-filing-systems/short-interest). In there, you'll find three columns:
|
||||
|
||||
- Settlement Date: The date at which short interest positions must be determined.
|
||||
|
||||
- Due Date: The date at which the report of the SI from the settlement date is due by.
|
||||
|
||||
- Exchange Receipt Date: The date when FINRA finalizes the reports and delivers them.
|
||||
|
||||
Settlement date. They NEED to have their shorts hidden in PUTs by then or else they are reported in the SI%. (Hey they could very well have figured out a new trick to hide shorts!)
|
||||
|
||||
In February and March, the boys probably had enough capital to combat the 400,000 PUTs expiring and shitting out their short positions on them on both February 19th and March 19th. Since then, they have probably been struggling with net capital and need to keep it high enough while also hiding their short position. (Hello d0ggi3 c0in pump.)
|
||||
|
||||
If April 16th crapped out a bunch of shorts once more, then they would have had to hide them by April 30th Short Interest Settlement. If they have not hidden them, then the receipt date for April 30th SI% is May 11. We could very well see SI% skyrocket on May 11. Note: This is NOT a price increase. This is the SHORT INTEREST percentage that could increase. Basically saying to the world, "Hey you remember how we said we covered? Haha. Good joke. Right? Please be gentle...".
|
||||
|
||||
But of course, we saw some assets pump and dumping. Which might have helped them raise enough capital to hide those shorts again. Even then, they're stuck between a rock and a hard place of retail continuing to buy and very few paper hands selling.
|
||||
|
||||
- Every SI Report Cycle, they need to satisfy new retail FTDs with synthetic shares, increasing their short position. (Price spikes up due to these ITM CALLs)
|
||||
|
||||
- Every SI Report Cycle, they want to try to kill retail buy pressure by shorting the stock, also increasing their short position. (Price drops down or spikes down)
|
||||
|
||||
- The end result is the synthetics and ITM CALLs cancel each other out. The "true" price is revealed going into the next SI Report Cycle.
|
||||
|
||||
- If any SI Report Cycle has a large amount of shorts spill out that were hidden in options, they'll need to determine if they need to delay them or let the shorts get reported on SI%:
|
||||
|
||||
- If they delay the shorts again through PUTs, it costs them money. They have to worry about their net capital and not go net negative. If it's going to cost too much, they need to pump/dump something to raise the capital.
|
||||
|
||||
- If they don't delay the shorts, then the SI% can skyrocket, initiating retail buy pressure again because it shows they haven't covered.
|
||||
|
||||
- Every SI Report Cycle and delaying shorts they bleed money, making net capital an ever-looming presence. They can't pump and dump assets forever.
|
||||
|
||||
- It's just an endless cycle of them making more and more synthetic shares to satisfy FTDs. Digging a deeper grave every day.
|
||||
|
||||
I wonder... how long can they last?
|
@ -0,0 +1,43 @@
|
||||
VIX VOLATILITY INDEX RISING SHARPLY PREMARKETS - 30% increase overnight
|
||||
=======================================================================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/con101smd](https://www.reddit.com/user/con101smd/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/n9ub60/vix_volatility_index_rising_sharply_premarkets_30/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
|
||||
[Education 👨🏫 | Data 🔢](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22Education%20%F0%9F%91%A8%E2%80%8D%F0%9F%8F%AB%20%7C%20Data%20%F0%9F%94%A2%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/94v22zzd2hy61.png?width=730&format=png&auto=webp&s=e2908b7b0e8856d61dc7f41a727720590ad28868)
|
||||
|
||||
VIX is up 30% total yesterday and over night, last time it hiked as much was in january/march 3-4th
|
||||
|
||||
Key Takeaways. The Cboe Volatility Index, or VIX, is a real-time market index representing the market's expectations for volatility over the coming 30 days. Investors use the VIX to measure the level of risk, fear, or stress in the market when making investment decisions.
|
||||
|
||||
" The VIX spiked by as much as 48.1 percent to a high of 62.12, a level last seen during the 2008 global financial crisis. Since 1990, there have only been 14 episodes where the VIX has spiked above 32.7, according to Bank of America. The VIX topped out at 89.53 in October 2008. "
|
||||
|
||||
Take what you want from this ape and use it in your thorough research with the DD provided but tits r jacked!
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/fljvt8qt2hy61.png?width=276&format=png&auto=webp&s=f638f8f9b795174551af29025f7779d95fc654ec)
|
||||
|
||||
shes trending quite fast
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/5viooz4lkhy61.png?width=246&format=png&auto=webp&s=9ead59ab5f7fa21660514f96dd7c2d4d34aa4ba6)
|
||||
|
||||
update, BRrrrrrrRrrrrrrrrrrrrr
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/ezypp8wslhy61.png?width=251&format=png&auto=webp&s=39ca6e57efb66f3a7f9f2ef0c0e2bc88055a2b54)
|
||||
|
||||
buckle up apes its gonna be a bumpy open
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/a3ozs0kfaiy61.png?width=251&format=png&auto=webp&s=68e28ca44d4a12818f0f5ba1d47b5c89bb7f0cd7)
|
||||
|
||||
chugga chugga chugga choo choo
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/06nif7nnnhy61.png?width=1242&format=png&auto=webp&s=2d3e7fec45d2f6790837fcc51aa390d40737285e)
|
||||
|
||||
COMPARISON TO $GME courtesy of u/king_tchilla
|
||||
|
||||
HEDGIES R FUKD
|
@ -0,0 +1,222 @@
|
||||
I've estimated the current SI% based on the SI Report Cycle and Deep ITM CALL purchases.
|
||||
========================================================================================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/Criand](https://www.reddit.com/user/Criand/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nc1lny/ive_estimated_the_current_si_based_on_the_si/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
[DD 👨🔬](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22DD%20%F0%9F%91%A8%E2%80%8D%F0%9F%94%AC%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||
0\. Preface
|
||||
|
||||
Not a financial advisor. Yada yada. If you actually listen to me you might want to get your brain checked for crayons.
|
||||
|
||||
Probably no need for any more DDs from me after this one - its a cumulation of my thoughts over the past few months. People were interested in an SI% estimate so I thought, hell yeah, that's interesting shit. Why not?
|
||||
|
||||
On a side note, I've learned pretty much everything I have about the stock market from Peppa Pig. Good stuff. Definitely recommend.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/wfiam0y2t0z61.png?width=549&format=png&auto=webp&s=49c513b5110df562a5032214966ddf0990c1c7a2)
|
||||
|
||||
Once again I'll be referencing charts from the mastermind [/u/broccaaa](https://www.reddit.com/u/broccaaa/) and their post [The Naked Shorting Scam](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/mvdgf5/the_naked_shorting_scam_in_numbers_ai_detection/). Go read that shit. Seriously.
|
||||
|
||||
Also, sorry. TLDR is very difficult besides the bullets of Section 0 and my calculated result in Section 2.
|
||||
|
||||
0\. What's Going On Here?
|
||||
|
||||
I've posted a few DDs in the past, and have basically come to the conclusion of the following per the data I've seen. I'll show you a few charts from [/u/broccaaa](https://www.reddit.com/u/broccaaa/)'s post to support this:
|
||||
|
||||
- The price movements we've been seeing, both volatile moves up and down, are caused by the shorters themselves by holding back buy pressure and then unleashing it at a later date. They are the reason we see bursts of high volume and large surges on certain days. This is due to the "SI Report Loop" that they're trapped in, paired with the fact that there are no more shares left in GME and there have been no shares for quite some time. I'll go into more detail in the next section because it is the basis of the SI% calculation.
|
||||
|
||||
- They held back buy pressure from May 1 to May 12, and then it started to be unleashed on May 13. Refer to Section 1 where I discuss the SI Report Cycle.
|
||||
|
||||
- I do not believe they are delaying FTDs or hiding FTDs. Ever. They are satisfying them immediately with fake shares and simply hiding their ever-growing SI%. This is why we never see the "FTD squeeze" theory play out. They aren't juggling a pile of FTDs - they're simply adding to their ever growing short position until they inevitably get margin called from too high of a risk. (Hello??? Reverse repo loans coming out at higher frequencies lately?!)
|
||||
|
||||
- Each type of option is used for a very specific play. We see large purchases of OTM PUTs, ITM PUTs, OTM CALLs, and ITM CALLs popping up in anomalies.
|
||||
|
||||
- OTM PUTs = Used to hide their SI%. This has no effect on the price of GME because these are not being exercised and they maintain OI even until expiration. The shorters are using these to hide their SI% from the world. The main counter-argument to the MOASS is "their SI% is 20%, they covered". So if you're a shorter and you hide your SI%, you can push that narrative that you covered and hope people sell. Supporting Data: Figure 1, PUT OI Versus SI%. Check out how SI% drops when PUT OI skyrockets.
|
||||
|
||||
- ITM PUTs = Used to flash crash the price. This is an expensive move and I believe we only saw this happen once, on March 10. This is a last-ditch effort move where you mass exercise ITM PUTs to crash the price down from a critical point. If you don't remember - March 10 the price hit $350 before being flash crashed down. They have purchased up many more ITM PUTs lately, so they might attempt this again. Supporting Data: Figure 2, PUT OI For Options, March 9 to March 11. Look at how the PUT OI dropped on March 10, indicating mass exercise of options to flash crash.
|
||||
|
||||
- OTM CALLs = Used by other large players who want a profit. [We only just recently started seeing these from what I can tell](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nafcuh/a_couple_deep_itm_puts_and_lots_of_otm_calls_were/). I'm assuming that because these just started popping up that other big players are looking to make some cash. The ones that were purchased expire on July 16, 2021. They might be hoping for the squeeze before then and maybe thought $140 was the bottom.
|
||||
|
||||
- ITM CALLs = Used by shorters to filter synthetic shares through and satisfy FTDs. These purchases occur a lot when FTDs pile up. I believe that they continue to use this in conjunction with Citadel in order to fulfil FTDs because there is no liquidity. These options have an effect on price because they are immediately exercised so that the shares can be delivered. Supporting Data: Figure 3, ITM Call Volumes Versus FTDs. Deep ITM CALL volume skyrockets when FTDs increase.
|
||||
|
||||
- And my most important finding: shorts r fuk
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/bz6rqprd70z61.png?width=1848&format=png&auto=webp&s=6af2d251b49b225cfc94a8b8ecdfbda05b371e87)
|
||||
|
||||
Figure 1: PUT OI Versus SI%
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/br8zshfy70z61.png?width=792&format=png&auto=webp&s=17a336296450a063c9d656891fc0ce95cc74ab56)
|
||||
|
||||
Figure 2: PUT OI For Options, March 9 to March 11
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/8haclqqp80z61.png?width=1894&format=png&auto=webp&s=ea99b5a40cd13293e51f68e9a99e3a15e70a5196)
|
||||
|
||||
Figure 3: ITM Call Volumes Versus FTDs
|
||||
|
||||
1\. There Are No Shares Left. Every Share Being Bought Is Synthetic
|
||||
|
||||
Well, at least most of them are synthetic. A vast majority are synthetic due to SI% being over 100% since December. You don't just suddenly find liquidity in GameStop after naked shorting the shit out of it. It's going to have to be continuously naked shorted (and produce synthetics) to satisfy buyers until the MOASS. Otherwise, whoopsie. They'll have to start unwinding a bunch of FTDs from being forced to deliver (and find the shares). So instead of that route, they'll make fake shares for the FTDs.
|
||||
|
||||
I've been trying to understand what the hell has been going on with the price. Why did it surge in January? Why did it surge in February? Why March? Why did we see volatile jumps all over the place? Why does buying pressure seemingly get negated? T+13? T+21? T+35? No, no, no. It is all SI Report Loop. They're stuck in that loop and can't get out. I've talked about this in [my other DD](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/n792mf/all_shorts_must_cover_theyre_entering_the_danger/) but I'll recap because it's very relevant here for why we can use ITM CALLs to calculate SI%:
|
||||
|
||||
The shorters are stuck in a loop revolving around [Fina Short Interest Reporting](https://www.finra.org/filing-reporting/regulatory-filing-systems/short-interest). What exactly is this?
|
||||
|
||||
> FINRA requires firms to report short interest positions in all customer and proprietary accounts in all equity securities twice a month.
|
||||
|
||||
There's three columns on that link. What are they:
|
||||
|
||||
- Settlement Date: The date at which short interest positions must be determined.
|
||||
|
||||
- Due Date: The date at which the report of the SI from the settlement date is due by.
|
||||
|
||||
- Exchange Receipt Date: The date when FINRA finalizes the reports and delivers them.
|
||||
|
||||
You want to make sure that your short positions are hidden by the Settlement Date so that it pops up to the world on the Receipt Date. For example, they opened up a shitload of OTM PUTs (Figure 1, PUT OI Versus SI%) prior to January 29th Settlement. Upon February 9th, SI% dropped like a rock. As long as short positions are hidden or covered by the Settlement date, then the receipt date will not take those into account.
|
||||
|
||||
Refer to Figure 1 on PUT OI skyrocketing when SI% dropped. At that point in time (early February), they could claim to the world that they covered, and they did claim that, but they actually just hid their short position from the world's eyes.
|
||||
|
||||
Here's a copy/paste of the dates for 2021. I'm going to only copy the ones through the start of June:
|
||||
|
||||
| Settlement Date | Due Date | Exchange Receipt Date |
|
||||
| --- | --- | --- |
|
||||
| January 15 | January 20 | January 27 |
|
||||
| January 29 | February 2 | February 9 |
|
||||
| February 12 | February 17 | February 24 |
|
||||
| February 26 | March 2 | March 9 |
|
||||
| March 15 | March 17 | March 24 |
|
||||
| March 31 | April 5 | April 12 |
|
||||
| April 15 | April 19 | April 26 |
|
||||
| April 30 | May 4 | May 11 |
|
||||
| May 14 | May 18 | May 25 |
|
||||
| May 28 | June 2 | June 9 |
|
||||
| June 15 | June 17 | June 24 |
|
||||
|
||||
So we can say that between each Settlement Date is a loop where they'll have new shorts open up, and then they want to hide those new shorts by the next Settlement Date so that it doesn't appear on the SI% report and increase it. (Imagine if one day we saw SI% jump back up from 20% to 140% or more. Imagine the headlines. They can't risk that happening).
|
||||
|
||||
And what exactly goes on between each loop? Let me bring up my handy-dandy chart again before continuing. I've plotted the Settlement Dates here and boxed volatility moments. You'll see that there is ALWAYS a volatile move up and a volatile move down between these dates.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/il7rvu09d0z61.png?width=1423&format=png&auto=webp&s=e80d44e1b085ef132070f37c5cc45171519ca58e)
|
||||
|
||||
Figure 4: SI Report Loop And Volatility
|
||||
|
||||
Here's what I am assuming happens:
|
||||
|
||||
1. Retail starts buying. They (Citadel & Co) create synthetics to match this buy pressure because there's no liquidity/no shares available. This negates buy pressure and any additional shorts (iborrowdesk) helps drive the price downward.
|
||||
|
||||
2. Retail doesn't get their shares delivered. FTDs start piling up. The synthetics created in #1 and the shorts that were opened in #1 need to be hidden by the next SI report date otherwise it will pump the SI% up again. The FTDs must be satisfied as well or it will start an unwinding of their massive web of bullshit.
|
||||
|
||||
3. They feed these synthetics into Deep ITM CALLs that are then purchased up, exercised, and used to satisfy the FTDs that were created by retail buying. This process drives the price up. Retail now owns more fake shares and their overall short position continues to grow.
|
||||
|
||||
4. Combination of #1 and #3 cancels out the downward pressure on the price. GME creates a higher low as long as retail didn't sell. If you look at the GME price chart, you'll notice how it continues to create a higher floor between each SI Report Cycle. Basically, the "true" GME price is revealed after #1 and #3 cancel each other out because it shows how retail buying increased the price relative to the prior SI Report Cycle.
|
||||
|
||||
5. Any additional shorts they have will be pushed under the rug with OTM PUTs.
|
||||
|
||||
Each cycle they continuously grow an ever larger short position and thus an ever larger SI% with these synthetics and additional borrowing. Meaning they continue to have higher risk, and their margin call price slowly moves downward. They keep making it worse for themselves. Every cycle they spend a little money kicking it down the road. Every cycle the price floor rises. Every cycle they increase their short position.
|
||||
|
||||
You know how we see >=50% short volume each day? That's most likely them pairing 1:1 with retail buys for synthetics so that they can be later delivered through ITM CALLs. A bold assumption of course, but it could be relevant and might explain why we've been seeing that data of short volume.
|
||||
|
||||
That's why I believe that the volatile price movements both up AND down are caused by the shorters themselves by holding back buy pressure and then unleashing it at a later date. They are the reason we see bursts of high volume and large surges on certain days. They suppress the buy pressure with synthetics, but then must deliver those synthetics to satisfy FTDs. Upon exercising the ITM CALLs to deliver these synthetics, they cause the price to surge upward.
|
||||
|
||||
I am assuming that every one of these Deep ITM CALL purchases are synthetic-covered and thus 100 fake shares per contract.
|
||||
|
||||
2\. Assumptions In Calculating SI%, And Results
|
||||
|
||||
We're assuming that the Deep ITM CALLs are not used to hide FTDs but they are rather used to satisfy the FTDs immediately with fake shares. This is most likely why we never saw the "hidden FTDs" pop out again to support the FTD squeeze theory. Because they've already been delivered, and the synthetics keep pumping into their total SI%. So they're in the process of juggling an ever-increasing SI% position while the price also continues to rise.
|
||||
|
||||
Per [/u/Dan_Bren](https://www.reddit.com/u/Dan_Bren/), between March 1st and March 11th, inclusive, [there were approximately 27,650 Deep ITM CALLs purchased](https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/comments/m31f8b/2day_update_168_million_on_6650_deep_itm_calls/). If we assume that all of those were to fulfill FTDs and are synthetic due to no liquidity in the market, then that comes out to 27,650 * 100 = 2,765,000 synthetic shares from March 1st to March 11th.
|
||||
|
||||
In another post, on April 1st, [there were approximately 5,960 Deep ITM CALLs purchased](https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/comments/mk6e2q/106m_of_deep_itm_calls_were_purchased_on_thursday/). Likewise, this equates to 5,960 * 100 = 596,000 synthetic shares on April 1st.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/eznmnbrc20z61.png?width=1890&format=png&auto=webp&s=c3002fadc94ca03ab92d3a4b17f322f97c2c5091)
|
||||
|
||||
Figure 5: Cumulative Deep ITM CALL Volumes, March 1st to March 11th
|
||||
|
||||
Look at the volumes between March 1st and March 11th compared to everything else. Oof. All those blips of ITM CALL anomalies is nothing compared to January and the spike in February.
|
||||
|
||||
To be conservative I'm going to ignore straight up "volume" and rather calculate SI% based on a ratio of [/u/Dan_Bren](https://www.reddit.com/u/Dan_Bren/)'s data to the volumes we see. Here's results based on March 1st to March 11th, and April 1. I'm going to do an even value closer to the lower bound of 0.25 to get our "Average". It just makes the math easier.
|
||||
|
||||
| | March 1st to March 11th | April 1 |
|
||||
| --- | --- | --- |
|
||||
| Cumulative ITM Calls | 27,650 | 5,960 |
|
||||
| Cumulative Volume | ~110,000 | ~14,000 |
|
||||
| Ratio of Volume to CALLs | ~0.25 | ~0.42 |
|
||||
| "Average" Ratio | | ~0.3 |
|
||||
|
||||
Since we don't have historical data prior to 3/1, I'm going to use these two data points (March 1-March 11, and April 1) as our estimated "synthetics created" per volume.
|
||||
|
||||
With a conservative estimate, we'll say that we get 30 synthetic-covered CALLs that are exercised for every 100 volume (0.3 ratio). And thus 3,000 synthetic shares per 100 volume.
|
||||
|
||||
Let's tally it up based on Figure 5. I'm doing approximations for volumes because I do not have the data sheet that was used to create this figure. It's also easier to work with even numbers. Sorry for the long table.
|
||||
|
||||
| Date | Volume | Approximate Synthetic CALLs (Volume*0.3) | Approximate Synthetic Shares (CALLs*100) |
|
||||
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
|
||||
| Janaury 7 | 3,125 | 938 | 93,800 |
|
||||
| January 11 | 3,125 | 938 | 93,800 |
|
||||
| January 13 | 62,500 | 18,750 | 1,875,000 |
|
||||
| January 14 | 25,000 | 7,500 | 750,000 |
|
||||
| January 15 | 12,500 | 3,750 | 375,000 |
|
||||
| January 19 | 13,000 | 3,900 | 390,000 |
|
||||
| January 20 | 6,250 | 1,875 | 187,500 |
|
||||
| January 21 | 10,000 | 3,000 | 300,000 |
|
||||
| January 24 | 125,000 | 37,500 | 3,750,000 |
|
||||
| January 25 | 100,000 | 30,000 | 3,000,000 |
|
||||
| January 26 | 210,000 | 63,000 | 6,300,000 |
|
||||
| January 27 | 260,000 | 78,000 | 7,800,000 |
|
||||
| January 28 | 80,000 | 24,000 | 2,400,000 |
|
||||
| January 29 | 61,500 | 18,450 | 1,845,000 |
|
||||
| February 1 | 62,500 | 18,750 | 1,875,000 |
|
||||
| February 2 | 18,750 | 5,625 | 562,500 |
|
||||
| February 3 | 13,000 | 3,900 | 390,000 |
|
||||
| February 4 | 3,125 | 938 | 93,800 |
|
||||
| February 5 | 3,125 | 938 | 93,800 |
|
||||
| February 8 | 3,125 | 938 | 93,800 |
|
||||
| February 9 | 6,000 | 1,800 | 180,000 |
|
||||
| February 10 | 3,125 | 938 | 93,800 |
|
||||
| February 11 | 1,000 | 300 | 30,000 |
|
||||
| February 16 | 1,000 | 300 | 30,000 |
|
||||
| February 19 | 3,125 | 938 | 93,800 |
|
||||
| February 24 | 120,000 | 36,000 | 3,600,000 |
|
||||
| February 25 | 60,000 | 18,000 | 1,800,000 |
|
||||
| February 26 | 14,000 | 4,200 | 420,000 |
|
||||
| March 1 | 13,000 | 3,900 | 390,000 |
|
||||
| March 2 | 4,000 | 1,200 | 120,000 |
|
||||
| March 3 | 10,000 | 3,000 | 300,000 |
|
||||
| March 4 | 8,000 | 2,400 | 240,000 |
|
||||
| March 8 | 24,000 | 7,200 | 720,000 |
|
||||
| March 9 | 15,000 | 4,500 | 450,000 |
|
||||
| March 10 | 26,000 | 7,800 | 780,000 |
|
||||
| March 11 | 6,500 | 1,950 | 195,000 |
|
||||
| March 12 | 2,000 | 600 | 60,000 |
|
||||
| March 15 | 2,000 | 600 | 60,000 |
|
||||
| March 17 | 6,000 | 1,800 | 180,000 |
|
||||
| March 18 | 3,125 | 938 | 93,800 |
|
||||
| March 25 | 3,125 | 938 | 93,800 |
|
||||
| March 29 | 3,125 | 938 | 93,800 |
|
||||
| March 31 | 4,000 | 1,200 | 120,000 |
|
||||
| April 1 | 10,000 | 3,000 | 300,000 |
|
||||
| Total | | | 42,713,000 |
|
||||
|
||||
Yup. Assuming only 30% of the volumes resulted in actual synthetic CALLs being exercised to cover FTDs, we come up with a potential of 42,713,000 synthetic shares being created between January 7th and April 1st.
|
||||
|
||||
Just for fun though, and I'm sure some of you are curious. Let's assume 100% of the volumes were accounted for. What would that give us? Dun dun dun... 142,375,000 synthetic shares. But I'll stick with the conservative estimate for now. Just thought I'd slap that in there for fun.
|
||||
|
||||
Now let's assume that these were all NEW synthetics created because the SI was already over 100%. (Why else would they be buying these? The assumption is ITM CALLs are necessary for zero liquidity.) So we'll take the peak SI% since shitheads never covered and never will cover. The SI was 141% at its peak. Since 141% is based on 55,000,000 float, we'll say the original short position was 77,550,000, resulting in a grand total of 120,263,000 shares short as of April 1.
|
||||
|
||||
What is the theoretical SI% now with our estimated shorts/synthetics just up to April 1st if the GME float is either 55,000,000 or the theoretical 30,000,000 as of late?
|
||||
|
||||
| GME Total Float | SI% |
|
||||
| --- | --- |
|
||||
| 55,000,000 | 218% |
|
||||
| 30,000,000 | 400% |
|
||||
|
||||
Oh dear god. That's a lot of tendies.
|
||||
|
||||
They're amassing such a huge position that keeps growing every single SI Report Cycle. It's no surprise these reverse repo rates are coming out more frequently and in larger sums. They are battling a massive risk position now and GME is continuing to rise in price. They've got to be on their last legs.
|
||||
|
||||
GME has been edged so much and so long that when it explodes it's going to rip a hole in the fabric of space and time and the simulation we live in will crash.
|
||||
|
||||
Cheers apes. I'll see you on the other side.
|
271
DD/2021-05-18-Theory-on-FTD-Loop-Missing-Link.md
Normal file
271
DD/2021-05-18-Theory-on-FTD-Loop-Missing-Link.md
Normal file
@ -0,0 +1,271 @@
|
||||
Theory on the FTD Loop Missing Link - a T+35 surge followed by an infinite T+21 loop surrounding specific option dates. Support for April 16th options T+21 theory pointing to a possible surge tomorrow, or T+35 surge on May 24th
|
||||
|
||||
===================================================================================================================================================================================================================================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/Criand](https://www.reddit.com/user/Criand/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nf22qz/theory_on_the_ftd_loop_missing_link_a_t35_surge/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
[DD 👨🔬](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22DD%20%F0%9F%91%A8%E2%80%8D%F0%9F%94%AC%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||
0\. Preface
|
||||
|
||||
I'm not a financial advisor. <Insert witty comment here before posting>.
|
||||
|
||||
Speculative post? OR REAL SHIT? I'm pretty hyped about April 16th being a doomsday clock for the hedgies, since that's the time they started working the night shift. "Give it up for day 15!" as Mr. Krabs would say.
|
||||
|
||||
Do you like dates? I like dates. I'd be happy to take you on one. Just ask. 😉
|
||||
|
||||
I would like apes to pick at this, because I feel like we're really close to finding the secret sauce to the price movements and predicting the next surge (maybe even MOASS ignition). Is it T+21? Is it T+35? Both? I've got some charts for you to take a peek at and help discuss!
|
||||
|
||||
Shoutout to the big brain apes lately who started to bring traction to the FTDs again. I'd love to get all of your guys input and any other apes I've missed or who want to join in:
|
||||
|
||||
[/u/juventinn1897](https://www.reddit.com/u/juventinn1897/)
|
||||
|
||||
[/u/Suspicious-Singer243](https://www.reddit.com/u/Suspicious-Singer243/)
|
||||
|
||||
[/u/Horror_Fishing_2523](https://www.reddit.com/u/Horror_Fishing_2523/)
|
||||
|
||||
[/u/HomeDepotHank69](https://www.reddit.com/u/HomeDepotHank69/)
|
||||
|
||||
Let's DRAGON BALL FUSION this!
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/ch9tiqqwwsz61.png?width=1442&format=png&auto=webp&s=51e2817ea22f633f88092b6a5d2d04653c3712e0)
|
||||
|
||||
Idea courtesy of /u/435f43f534
|
||||
|
||||
1\. How to Determine T+35 and T+21
|
||||
|
||||
Before we move forward, I think it's important to talk about T+35 and T+21. I've made the mistake of counting T+0 from option expiration, which I don't believe is right. The clock actually starts ticking on the Monday following options expiration. So, big whoops on my behalf.
|
||||
|
||||
Quoting from [this post](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/ml3exp/the_foass_speculation_yeah_foass/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf) describing different T+N settlements:
|
||||
|
||||
> It is not until T+35 (calendar days) when a clearing agency enters into a forced covering position.
|
||||
|
||||
Ah, interesting. So after T+35 calendar days, the clearing agency is forced to start delivering.
|
||||
|
||||
And if I recall correctly, T+21 derives from brokers having a limit of T+16, but a Market Maker gets an additional +5 days, which results in T+16+5 = T+21. So, Market Makers will be forced to deliver after T+21.
|
||||
|
||||
Let's walk through an example of T+35:
|
||||
|
||||
1\. April 16 Options Expiration. T+35 clock starts the following Monday, April 19th, as T+0.
|
||||
|
||||
2\. Each calendar day following is +1, not including Holidays. This gives us:
|
||||
|
||||
| April 16th Options Expiration | |
|
||||
|
||||
| --- | --- |
|
||||
|
||||
| Date | T+N |
|
||||
|
||||
| April 19th | T+0 |
|
||||
|
||||
| April 20th | T+1 |
|
||||
|
||||
| April 21st | T+2 |
|
||||
|
||||
| ... | |
|
||||
|
||||
| April 26th | T+7 |
|
||||
|
||||
| ... | |
|
||||
|
||||
| May 21st | T+32 |
|
||||
|
||||
| May 24th | T+35 |
|
||||
|
||||
Cool beans. Let's walk through an example of T+21:
|
||||
|
||||
1\. April 16 Options Expiration. T+21 clock starts the following Monday, April 19th, as T+0.
|
||||
|
||||
2\. Each business day following is +1, not including Holidays. This gives us:
|
||||
|
||||
| April 16th Options Expiration | |
|
||||
|
||||
| --- | --- |
|
||||
|
||||
| Date | T+N |
|
||||
|
||||
| April 19th | T+0 |
|
||||
|
||||
| April 20th | T+1 |
|
||||
|
||||
| April 21st | T+2 |
|
||||
|
||||
| ... | |
|
||||
|
||||
| April 26th | T+5 |
|
||||
|
||||
| ... | |
|
||||
|
||||
| May 17th | T+20 |
|
||||
|
||||
| May 18th | T+21 |
|
||||
|
||||
So depending on if the Market Maker or the Clearing House is forced to deliver for April 16th options, if they are significant, then we're looking at one of two possibilities here:
|
||||
|
||||
1\. Market Maker delivers on T+21, May 18th
|
||||
|
||||
2\. Clearing House delivers on T+35, May 24th
|
||||
|
||||
2\. Support for April 16 T+21 Theory
|
||||
|
||||
[/u/juventinn1897](https://www.reddit.com/u/juventinn1897/)'s post is awesome. Take a look. It got my Pomeranian senses tingling again, so I took a look at the charts again once I looked at their findings a bit more:
|
||||
|
||||
<https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/ne3ra6/t21_from_put_expiry_dates_could_be_key_to_the_ftd/>
|
||||
|
||||
[/u/juventinn1897](https://www.reddit.com/u/juventinn1897/)'s theory is that we have had T+21 links to January 22 and February 5th, resulting in the February 24th and March 10th bursts due to large amounts of PUT OI increasing since the middle of January. Remember, we don't count holidays. So it all lines up perfectly when you ignore February 15th (Washington's Birthday):
|
||||
|
||||
| January 22nd Options Expiration | |
|
||||
|
||||
| --- | --- |
|
||||
|
||||
| Date | T+N |
|
||||
|
||||
| January 25th | T+0 |
|
||||
|
||||
| January 26th | T+1 |
|
||||
|
||||
| January 27th | T+2 |
|
||||
|
||||
| <Ignore Feb 15> | |
|
||||
|
||||
| February 16th | T+15 |
|
||||
|
||||
| ... | |
|
||||
|
||||
| February 22nd | T+19 |
|
||||
|
||||
| February 24th | T+21 |
|
||||
|
||||
| February 5th Options Expiration | |
|
||||
|
||||
| --- | --- |
|
||||
|
||||
| Date | T+N |
|
||||
|
||||
| February 8th | T+0 |
|
||||
|
||||
| February 9th | T+1 |
|
||||
|
||||
| February 10th | T+2 |
|
||||
|
||||
| <Ignore Feb 15> | |
|
||||
|
||||
| February 16th | T+5 |
|
||||
|
||||
| ... | |
|
||||
|
||||
| March 8th | T+19 |
|
||||
|
||||
| March 10th | T+21 |
|
||||
|
||||
With that relationship established, T+21 from April 16th truly points to tomorrow, May 18th, because we need to start T+0 from the Monday following the option expiration. May the force be with you, prophet [/u/juventinn1897](https://www.reddit.com/u/juventinn1897/)! I sure as hell would like tendies tomorrow!
|
||||
|
||||
3\. What if it's Actually a Combination of T+35 and T+21? The Missing Link?
|
||||
|
||||
Now... with that being said, I'd like to throw a curve ball at you. Instead of T+21, perhaps it starts with T+35 from major options dates and then it triggers an ever-looping T+21 cycle from those initial options dates:
|
||||
|
||||
1\. The option expires and then T+35 calendar days later the Clearing House starts to deliver.
|
||||
|
||||
1. Clearing House -> Market Maker delivery complete
|
||||
|
||||
2\. Once the Clearing House delivers on T+35, the Market Maker gets the delivery and enters a T+21 cycle of kicking the can down the road because they don't want to deliver to retail. Price suppression baby!
|
||||
|
||||
1. Market Maker -> Retail/Institution delivery cancelled!
|
||||
|
||||
Theory? The Clearing House delivers to the MMs. The Clearing House is out of the picture now. No more T+35. It's all on the MMs to complete the delivery to retail (or institutions). The MM (Citadel) does not want to deliver, because fuck that! The price will skyrocket! So, they suppress the delivery and continuously can-kick in an infinite T+21. This is an infinite T+21 loop because the MMs are obligated by T+21. Hey! It's FTD squeeze theory! I've come full circle!
|
||||
|
||||
In an actual example, let's look at January 15:
|
||||
|
||||
1\. January 15 options expire. T+35, February 24th, Clearing House delivers to Citadel.
|
||||
|
||||
2\. Citadel caps the delivery to not let the price run wild. Nuh-uh retail! You're not getting deliveries!
|
||||
|
||||
3\. Citadel kicks January 15th deliveries further down the road T+21 more days.
|
||||
|
||||
4\. T+21 March 25th arrives and Citadel has to act quick to kick the can T+21 once more because they are obligated on T+21 as a Market Maker.
|
||||
|
||||
5\. T+21 April 26th arrives and Citadel has to act quick to kick the can T+21 once more.
|
||||
|
||||
6\. Repeats indefinitely until all of January 15th options deliveries are satisfied, or DTC-005 pulls the plug.
|
||||
|
||||
Or take a look at February 5th:
|
||||
|
||||
1\. February 5th options expire. T+35, March 15th, Clearing House delivers to Citadel.
|
||||
|
||||
2\. Citadel caps the delivery to not let the price run wild.
|
||||
|
||||
3\. Citadel kicks February 5th deliveries further down the road T+21 more days.
|
||||
|
||||
4\. T+21 April 14th arrives and Citadel has to act quick to kick the can T+21 once more because they are obligated on T+21 as a Market Maker.
|
||||
|
||||
5\. T+21 May 13th arrives and Citadel has to act quick to kick the can T+21 once more.
|
||||
|
||||
6\. Repeats indefinitely until all of February 5th options deliveries are satisfied, or DTC-005 pulls the plug.
|
||||
|
||||
Ew. I don't like text. I like visuals. And I'm sure you guys do, too. It just helps so much more. Don't worry - I got you! We'll plot the January 15th and February 5th examples on a chart!
|
||||
|
||||
Take a look at this chart of GME. Purple boxes are indicating T+35. Green boxes are indicating T+21. I'd love if someone had data to back up February 5th, or if that's just a red herring. Still, T+35 and then T+21 loop lines up perfectly with February 5th options date when you take into account holidays.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/fnj6sd2srsz61.png?width=1427&format=png&auto=webp&s=a7731b7e3aaacee2dcdaff9e46bdc767c0a90f9f)
|
||||
|
||||
Figure 1: GME T+21 and T+35 Cycles
|
||||
|
||||
Huh? March 15th didn't have a surge! Yes, you are correct. It had a biiiig surge down though. Now take a look at our friend AMC. I've plotted THE SAME EXACT T+35 AND T+21 CYCLES. Notice how similar AMC is? How its following the same spikes? Notice anything different about March 15 for AMC? AMC went up! I bet you they wasted a lot of ammo on March 15th to avoid GME surging up because it was in the $280s at the time. Danger Zone!!
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/1vzoarafqsz61.png?width=1423&format=png&auto=webp&s=6df4b3db90f5ab0a635444fa6116bdd23ae73142)
|
||||
|
||||
Figure 2: AMC T+21 and T+35 Cycles
|
||||
|
||||
The similarities in these charts is too much to pass up. Both AMC and GME are heavily shorted stocks and we need to apply the same analysis to both. AMC seems less suppressed compared to GME - fewer attacks - because it's not as big of a problem as GME.
|
||||
|
||||
Once I saw the surge on March 15 for AMC it started to click that the T+35 initiation followed by T+21 loop is probably happening.
|
||||
|
||||
Again though, February 5th is strange. It's not one of the major option dates that were provided last year. The only major option dates provided in early 2020 were:
|
||||
|
||||
- Janaury 15, 2021 (Possibly started T+35 and then subsequent T+21 cycle)
|
||||
|
||||
- April 16, 2021 (Possibly starting another T+35 cycle and subsequent T+21 cycle)
|
||||
|
||||
- July 16, 2021
|
||||
|
||||
- January 21, 2022
|
||||
|
||||
Could be a red herring. Could be that they fucked up thinking GME would have been dead by February 5th T+35 = March 15th. PUT OI and PUT volume skyrocketed during the January runup to absurd amounts (we peaked at 2 million PUT OI = 200 million shares worth). They very well could have chosen February 5th as a date to hide deliveries. This is where I'm hoping I get some help from fellow apes.
|
||||
|
||||
Now once more - this isn't throwing T+21 April 16th theory out just yet! I've plotted it on the charts which signals May 18th as T+21 from April 16th expiration. I just believe that we're probably looking at this T+35 and T+21 relationship instead. Regardless, I'm excited to see what happens tomorrow.
|
||||
|
||||
4\. TL;DR:
|
||||
|
||||
The FTD loop is most likely based around an initial T+35 from the Clearing House, and then an infinite loop of T+21 by Citadel (Market Maker):
|
||||
|
||||
1\. Major option date expires. The Clearing House will deliver to Market Makers after T+35 calendar days because the Clearing House is obligated to deliver after T+35.
|
||||
|
||||
2\. The Clearing House is now out of the picture after T+35 and the Market Maker has the delivery. The Market Maker then has to deliver to retail/institutions.
|
||||
|
||||
3\. The Market Maker (Citadel) doesn't want to deliver, so they cap the deliveries and kick it down the road. The maximum time Citadel can kick the can down the road before it comes back is T+21 business days because Market Makers are obligated to deliver by T+21.
|
||||
|
||||
4\. Once T+21 arrives, they kick the can some more, and maybe a few deliveries spill out, resulting in the price surges we see every T+21 days.
|
||||
|
||||
5\. The resulting relationship from major option expirations is T+35 -> T+21 infinite loop
|
||||
|
||||
6\. You can follow this example with January 15th options expiration.
|
||||
|
||||
1. January 15 T+35 -> February 24th
|
||||
|
||||
2. February 24th T+21 -> March 25th
|
||||
|
||||
3. March 25th T+21 -> April 26th
|
||||
|
||||
4. April 26th T+21 -> May 25th
|
||||
|
||||
- April 16th's T+35 delivery from the Clearing House arrives on May 24th and should initiate another T+21 loop if the theory holds.
|
||||
|
||||
- January 15th's T+21 loop will hit again on May 25th.
|
||||
|
||||
- Combination of #6 and #7 could be a Wombo Combo.
|
||||
|
||||
Cheers! :)
|
54
DD/2021-05-19-Delta-Neutral-Update.md
Normal file
54
DD/2021-05-19-Delta-Neutral-Update.md
Normal file
@ -0,0 +1,54 @@
|
||||
Delta Neutral DD Update: We Need More Volume!
|
||||
=============================================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/yelyah2](https://www.reddit.com/user/yelyah2/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/ngl10o/delta_neutral_dd_update_we_need_more_volume/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
[DD 👨🔬](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22DD%20%F0%9F%91%A8%E2%80%8D%F0%9F%94%AC%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||
I'm sure you probably don't need a DD to tell you that we need more underlying GME volume (in the form of a catalyst/FOMO), but wanted to share some observations from my work to partially explain why.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/eb8tem2st5071.png?width=910&format=png&auto=webp&s=60751638c8740598797d7732c68745b22bdd3c3e)
|
||||
|
||||
GME 12/1/2020 - 5/19/2021
|
||||
|
||||
Refresher:
|
||||
|
||||
- Delta Neutral: price that creates a total market delta of 0 across all GME options (all expiration dates) for a given date. General observation is it acts like a theoretical floor (although the price can go lower, as seen in February). My theory is that as the underlying approaches the delta neutral, call options go on sale. As people buy call options, MM have to buy the stocks which increases the price. Most stocks like to hang out above the delta neutral, some dip below and create pressure that can shoot them back over the delta neutral (like what happened in February), and some like to hang out below (like the VIX).
|
||||
|
||||
- Gamma Neutral: price that creates a total market gamma of 0 across all GME options (all expiration dates) for a given date. General observation is it acts like support/resistance between the delta neutral and the underlying, and typically bounces around between the two prices for most plan (like we have seen with GME since April). It also goes crazy in periods of high volatility (as you can see by the infinite spikes). It can either be a prelude to a big spike, indicate the end of a large increase, or it can go to zero and indicate the end of a big drop. It's hard to say what it will predict, except that SOMETHING is going to happen when it goes off.
|
||||
|
||||
- Max Pain: price that creates largest loss for option buyers and largest gain for option sellers. This is a controversial topic because underlying prices can drift towards this point. There are typically large areas around the max pain that doesn't make a lot of difference to the profits for option buyer/sellers. I don't use this too often as it's not a very consistent marker to make predictions on, but I keep it as a benchmark.
|
||||
|
||||
Since the beginning of April, the GME has been fairly flat, with a wave-like pattern. This is actually very similar to underlying stocks with very high options volume relative to the underlying equity volume, which means it's highly controlled by MM delta-hedging stock-buying patterns.
|
||||
|
||||
For example, here's a graph of Amazon, which has the highest options volume as a % of underlying.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/1bme4x3tu5071.png?width=910&format=png&auto=webp&s=3baddcf06b3d4e2f21ce4da4438940e8b5d40ede)
|
||||
|
||||
Amazon 2/5/2020 - 5/5/2021
|
||||
|
||||
As you can see, the delta neutral is relatively stable over time. The wave-like patterns is because of a "seasonality" effect leading up to each options expiration date. Delta neutral is generally highest on Fridays on expirations, compared to Mondays, for weekly-optionable equities. You can also see that the underlying value has a relatively stable ratio compared to the delta neutral, supported with resistance by the gamma neutral, and the max pain hugs the underlying pretty well. You can also see that the gamma neutral shoots up during periods of significant increases, but does not necessarily predict them. The ratio of the option volume x 100 / underlying volume for Amazon averages around 900%.
|
||||
|
||||
Now here's a graph of Snowflake Inc, which has option volume as a % of underlying volume that averages more like 100%.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/ams0xoely5071.png?width=910&format=png&auto=webp&s=18c048a012bbdb8d8c4405a309968c5a164b448b)
|
||||
|
||||
SNOW 9/22/2020 - 5/19/2021
|
||||
|
||||
As you can see, this stock is less controlled by MM behavior, and the delta neutral can move with the underlying price more. The underlying also occasionally dips below the delta neutral, before coming back over it. You can also see the gamma neutral generally acts like a support, but can spike down/up if something big is happening.
|
||||
|
||||
You can see in the GME graph above that it used to behave more like SNOW, but is now starting to behave like Amazon and is very controlled by MM patterns. It's also not a surprise, because the GME equity volume has decreased significantly the last two months. The table below summarizes the average 2021 GME volume for the underlying and options.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/st1mcfln06071.png?width=341&format=png&auto=webp&s=a4acd814b56eb69e88a06922066fe540ed6e4f09)
|
||||
|
||||
Average 2021 GME Volume
|
||||
|
||||
You can see that back in January, volume was much higher than options volume, so the underlying buyer dictated price movement. However, volume has dropped so low in May, that the option volume purchases are now 250% of the underlying, and now the price is controlled by options buyers and market makers.
|
||||
|
||||
TLDR: As I said, I'm sure it's not a surprise that we need more volume through a catalyst event, but you should not expect the MOASS to happen until we get that volume surge to overcome the delta-hedging hedgies, and you should expect the price to oscillate between around 5% and 40% of the delta neutral until that happens.
|
||||
|
||||
Disclaimer: I'm just an actuary that likes to play with options data and builds models to trade for a hobby. I have no experience trading professionally or offering any advice to anyone. This all came out of a lot of personal research, and have observed it working pretty consistently with the stocks I track (ones with high options volume). No one has peer reviewed my work, and I can't find support for this on the internet/in books. Therefore, please take this made up theory from a nobody on reddit with a grain of salt.
|
332
DD/2021-05-19-Hedge-Funds-Stole-the-American-Economy.md
Normal file
332
DD/2021-05-19-Hedge-Funds-Stole-the-American-Economy.md
Normal file
@ -0,0 +1,332 @@
|
||||
Hedge Funds Stole the American Economy & Created the Richest Man in the World
|
||||
=============================================================================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/AvidTreesFan](https://www.reddit.com/user/AvidTreesFan/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/comments/ngafr3/hedge_funds_stole_the_american_economy_created/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
[🔬 DD 📊](https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/search?q=flair_name%3A%22%F0%9F%94%AC%20DD%20%F0%9F%93%8A%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||
Oh, hey, let me just finish up this game of Smash Bros, grab a coffee, smoke a bowl real quick, watch a few episodes of Twilight Zone, then let's deep dive into this DD. It's a certified smooth-brained wall of text I promise.
|
||||
|
||||
I hope this write-up finds you well. Don't mind me. Just a playdoh-munching ape with a rambling problem and a stubborn interest in Wall Street's unscrupulous activities. Remember; hedge funds thrive from making money off EVERY TRANSACTION. Like 08' when they built nuclear bomb CDO's, sold them to unsuspecting investors, shorted them, then coordinated with ratings agencies to downgrade the bonds. Turns out the Stock Market is a ponzi scheme endorsed by the U.S government (what did you say Kenny? Or was that Janet Yellen just now?). Fuckery and corruption is afoot, but how did we get here?
|
||||
|
||||
So... let us journey to a simpler time; before the AMZN.
|
||||
|
||||
[Former V.P of Hedge Fund D.E Shaw: Jeff Bezos](https://preview.redd.it/k0zfv9ins3071.jpg?width=1200&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=111dac518a6ec1b30f08ca40319c573114e97d63)
|
||||
|
||||
To put it bluntly; *HEDGE FUNDS STOLE THE AMERICAN RETAIL ECONOMY. ahem, I will explain...*
|
||||
|
||||
*By naked shorting competing stocks, hedge funds can invest the proceeds (from that naked short sale) into AMZN stock, essentially; Wall Street steals money from a competitors' market cap and artificially inflates the price of AMZN stock. I believe this is the largest successful financial scam/grift pulled in history.*
|
||||
|
||||
*AMZN stock is the highest % returning stock in the last decade. Amazon was only $43 per share at 2008 lows.*
|
||||
|
||||
<https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/AMZN/amazon/stock-price-history>
|
||||
|
||||
*Understanding* *Jeff Bezos; the* ~~*"modest"*~~ *mastermind* *VP Quant of D.E Shaw:*
|
||||
|
||||
You know Jeff Bezos; the Former CEO of Amazon (the web-focused retailer for literally every product you can think of) has amassed quite a shameful amount of wealth in the last 2 decades. Currently worth over $200B.
|
||||
|
||||
You may be familiar with Bezos' modest lifestyle early on in his career, he himself mentioned still driving his 1997 Honda Civic after Amazon went public (making Bezos worth $12 Billion) and claims he did not believe in indulging in a wasteful lifestyle.
|
||||
|
||||
<https://www.cnbc.com/2018/01/18/why-amazons-jeff-bezos-drove-a-honda-after-he-was-a-billionaire.html>
|
||||
|
||||
That persona seems to have dissipated since.
|
||||
|
||||
"Bezos has some [bigger extravagances](https://www.cnbc.com/2017/07/27/how-richest-man-alive-jeff-bezos-spends-his-billions.html), like multiple homes, a private jet and Blue Origin" (Blue Origin is a space exploration company.
|
||||
|
||||
Up until recently, Bezos has promoted a public image that emphasized his "geeky" side, drawing focus to his coder, bookworm persona. It would be a great way to distract from his relationships and history with Wall Street. I mean, despite the PR, the guy is a quant!
|
||||
|
||||
WHAT IS A QUANT?
|
||||
|
||||
Quant is short for quantitative; in Wall Street speak it describes a process of using mathematic modeling and HIGH FREQUENCY TRADING to identify and act on trading opportunities. In short (pardon the pun), quants specialize in calculating probability and risk, HEDGING positions/SHORTING stocks is a commonplace practice in quantitively driven fund portfolio.
|
||||
|
||||
Bezos saw a business opportunity by creating and controlling a company that had strong relationships with Wall Street. A company that was willing to act in blatant anti-competitive fashion; possessing an understanding of the complex practices that inflate AMZN's market cap. A company that could rely of private equity doing their dirty work by targeting competitors through leveraged buyouts and naked shorting.
|
||||
|
||||
<https://www.investopedia.com/articles/active-trading/111214/quants-what-they-do-and-how-theyve-evolved.asp>
|
||||
|
||||
"back in 1994, a 30-year-old, newly married Bezos quit his Wall Street job to [start Amazon](https://www.cnbc.com/2018/01/09/amazons-jeff-bezos-son-of-a-teen-mom-to-a-105-billion-fortune.html)."
|
||||
|
||||
Okay, so timeline check here: <https://www.biography.com/business-figure/jeff-bezos>
|
||||
|
||||
"After graduating from Princeton, Bezos found work at several firms on Wall Street, including Fintel, Bankers Trust and the investment firm D.E. Shaw. In 1990, Bezos became D.E. Shaw's youngest vice president."
|
||||
|
||||
Bezos was known for his ability to fundraise and meet with venture capital and large investors in Amazon face to face:
|
||||
|
||||
<https://officechai.com/stories/jeff-bezos-raising-money/>
|
||||
|
||||
Bezos sourced funding for Amazon while he was still working as VP of D.E Shaw (before Amazon went public):
|
||||
|
||||
<https://www.scmp.com/news/world/united-states-canada/article/2143375/1994-he-convinced-22-family-and-friends-each-pay>
|
||||
|
||||
[David E. Shaw Circa 2009](https://preview.redd.it/u316hew0t3071.jpg?width=250&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=e5a709959d69aff46eb537c2595bf60a0b175def)
|
||||
|
||||
UNDERSTANDING D.E SHAW & THE ADVANTAGE OF KNOWING THE WINNER BEFORE THE RACE STARTS + THE CONFIDENTIAL ADVANTAGE:
|
||||
|
||||
<https://money.cnn.com/magazines/fortune/fortune_archive/1996/02/05/207353/index.htm>
|
||||
|
||||
David Elliot Shaw is an American billionaire, scientist and former [hedge fund manager](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hedge_fund). He founded [D. E. Shaw & Co.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/D._E._Shaw_%26_Co.), a hedge fund company which was once described by [*Fortune*](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fortune_(magazine)) magazine as "the most intriguing and mysterious force on Wall Street".
|
||||
|
||||
The title of that Fortune article, dated February 5th, 1996 reads: WALL STREET'S KING QUANT DAVID SHAW'S SECRET FORMULAS PILE UP MONEY. NOW HE WANTS A PIECE OF THE NET.
|
||||
|
||||
Secret formulas you say? like Kenny's secret formulas?
|
||||
|
||||
<https://yourstory.com/2020/02/jeff-bezos-boss-david-shaw-ecommerce-amazon/amp>
|
||||
|
||||
"I was living and working in New York City. I came across the fact that the world wide web was growing very fast and came up with this simple idea to sell books on the internet. I went to my boss David and told him the idea," Bezos reminisced, explaining how the first seed of Amazon was sown in his head.
|
||||
|
||||
Okay, so it's clear David E. Shaw (among others at D.E Shaw) was aware of Amazon's concept before it went public, had an active interest in investing in the web space and managed D.E Shaw; employing quantitative strategies during this time.
|
||||
|
||||
"D.E. Shaw & Co. went on to become one of the five highest-grossing hedge funds of all time."
|
||||
|
||||
<https://www.institutionalinvestor.com/article/b16m71ft1vxr80/the-top-earning-hedge-fund-firms-of-all-time>
|
||||
|
||||
2 of the 5 largest holdings for D.E Shaw are AMZN and MSFT:
|
||||
|
||||
<https://stockzoa.com/fund/d-e-shaw-co-inc-see-notes-1-2-and-3/>
|
||||
|
||||
Since Bezos announced he was stepping down as Amazon CEO February 2nd , D.E Shaw has sold 47% of their AMZN holdings. Wonder what they know?
|
||||
|
||||
Oh, and Citadel Securities (long time AMZN investor) is one of the other "top 5 highest grossing" hedge funds of all time. George Soros' (long time Amazon investor through Soros Fund Management LLC) and Ray Dalio (long time Amazon investor through Bridgewater Associates) are also included in this list.
|
||||
|
||||
<https://www.profitconfidential.com/stock/amazon-stock/this-is-why-george-soros-bought-more-amzn-stock/>
|
||||
|
||||
<https://finance.yahoo.com/news/dalios-bridgewater-associates-dumps-amazon-com-coca-cola-205346892--sector.html>
|
||||
|
||||
[In 2015, the largest private equity fund managed $87B, 1 year later, the largest private equity fund managed $140B. Modern day the largest fund (Blackstone Capital) manages $211B.](https://preview.redd.it/xzs37ae5t3071.png?width=593&format=png&auto=webp&s=cfc2e476614ed1bb11a85b6fe76bdc4776765b05)
|
||||
|
||||
Bridgewater was the largest hedge fund in the world in 2016 managing $140B AUM. The Blackstone Group, currently the largest private equity conglomerate by AUM; manages an absolutely absurd $211B through Blackstone Capital Partners. This loops back to property acquisition of AMZN competitors as Blackstone owned at least one entity in every single acquisition of an AMZN competitor. Blackstone owned Bain Capital (Toys R' Us lender) in the Toys R Us acquisition, Bain Capital had input on whether or not Toys R' Us would declare bankruptcy:
|
||||
|
||||
Toys R' Us bankruptcy explained in a prior DD:
|
||||
|
||||
<https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/comments/n1x909/companies_destroyed_by_hedge_funds_how_gamestop/>
|
||||
|
||||
THE BLACKSTONE GROUP collectively manages $619B in AUM and played an integral role in appropriating the success of Amazon's stock.
|
||||
|
||||
<https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/if-you-invested-%241000-in-blackstone-group-a-decade-ago-this-is-how-much-itd-be-worth-now>
|
||||
|
||||
"Blackstone's private equity business has been one of the largest investors in [leveraged buyouts](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leveraged_buyout) in the last three decades, while its real estate business has actively acquired commercial real estate".
|
||||
|
||||
<https://www.blackstone.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2021/01/Blackstone4Q20EarningsPressRelease.pdf>
|
||||
|
||||
Kenny.....? Do you know these guys? Actively acquiring real estate sounds a lot like you; whether it be in Texas, or New York or Florida or California or... really, must I continue to list all the states (and countries)?: <https://dealbreaker.com/2020/04/citadel-coronavirus-hotel>
|
||||
|
||||
<https://www.palmbeachdailynews.com/business/real-estate/griffin-million-deal-adds-more-land-his-palm-beach-estate/jfLaNFMYROujhGUHCRzxcK/>
|
||||
|
||||
<https://therealdeal.com/2020/08/27/ken-griffin-is-approaching-1b-in-worldwide-luxury-real-estate/>
|
||||
|
||||
<https://www.corporationwiki.com/search/results?term=ken%20griffin>
|
||||
|
||||
Blackstone expressed interest in an ownership deal with Citadel Securities and known fuck-head Kenny Grift(en): <https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-10-12/blackstone-held-talks-with-citadel-about-buying-stake-dj>
|
||||
|
||||
D.E SHAW, CITADEL & EVERY OTHER FUND CONTINUES TO CONCEAL THEIR POSITIONS TO THIS DAY. WHY A 13F IS BAD DATA.
|
||||
|
||||
<https://www.thinkadvisor.com/2005/01/12/sec-ruling-forces-d-e-shaw-portfolio-disclosure/>
|
||||
|
||||
"It's this kind of detailed hedging information that hedge funds like D.E. Shaw often seek to keep secret."
|
||||
|
||||
"Prior to the filing of the amended holding reports, all of D.E. Shaw's 13F filings dating back to May 1999 included minimal details."
|
||||
|
||||
This would allow D.E Shaw to establish confidential naked short positions in AMZN competitors and large amounts of undisclosed shares and options in AMZN and MSFT.
|
||||
|
||||
HMMMMMMM. OKAY.... WHAT!?
|
||||
|
||||
Oh yeah, In 2013, D.E Shaw violating short selling regulations.
|
||||
|
||||
<https://www.sec.gov/litigation/admin/2013/34-70396.pdf>
|
||||
|
||||
"On five occasions, from May 2010 through March 2012, D. E. Shaw bought offered shares from an underwriter or broker or dealer participating in a follow-on public offering after having sold short the same security during the restricted period. The violations resulted in profits of $447,794. "
|
||||
|
||||
[MFW I realize the SEC has allowed hedge funds to avoid reporting positions through 13F reports by applying for confidentiality exemptions. Then, finding out these same hedge funds violate short selling regulations.](https://preview.redd.it/efrrr1yat3071.jpg?width=1200&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=62359acf5fc0c64808792bbbc3178211799371da)
|
||||
|
||||
*Citadel, Melvin, Point 72 & Susquehanna aren't the first hedge funds to fuck up catastrophically:*
|
||||
|
||||
<https://www.valuewalk.com/2020/02/top-10-hedge-fund-blow-ups/>
|
||||
|
||||
<https://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/101515/3-biggest-hedge-fund-scandals.asp>
|
||||
|
||||
When it comes to quantitative funds, Ponzi schemes and Insider Trading grifts are common place (looking your way again right now Kenny). An alarming number of quantitative funds failed catastrophically due to poor risk management and over-leveraged betting. In 1998, Long-Term Capital Management (LTCM) almost caused a fucking Global Financial Crisis (GFC) due to their leveraged bets based off mathematical modeling and high frequency trading. The perils in the quantitative approach often includes extremely high risks as mathematics fails to account for human behavior (just like GME apes continue holding no matter the price) and cannot accurately predict long term market activity trends.
|
||||
|
||||
This highlights the value of knowing the future on Wall Street. If you know AMZN competitors stock price will drop and AMZN stock will appreciate, you can structure shares and options portfolios with ridiculous leverage (just ask Bill Hwang) and insane gain potential while keeping it completely confidential.
|
||||
|
||||
[Former Sears store signage circa 2012](https://preview.redd.it/l97ti4oet3071.jpg?width=450&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=a85944b753c054bf22145f8caf2b7c7e42d719ba)
|
||||
|
||||
It would make sense, if private equity hedge funds intentionally exercised their relationships and capital to destroy Amazon competitors deliberately (through leveraged buyouts and naked shorting) so Amazon could capture their market share while The Blackstone Group and KKR consumed their real estate assets.
|
||||
|
||||
"Hedge funds have killed Sears & many other retailers"
|
||||
|
||||
"Sears is the fifteenth retailer to file for bankruptcy this year, Ablin noted. It joins other high profile private equity backed casualties Toys "R" Us, shoe seller Nine West and quirky gadget retailer Brookstone".
|
||||
|
||||
<https://www.cnn.com/2018/10/16/investing/retail-sears-private-equity/index.html>
|
||||
|
||||
"Hedge funds are systematically destroying jobs across the nation," said Carrie Gleason, campaign manager for Rise Up Retail, a worker advocacy group.
|
||||
|
||||
"From Toys 'R' Us to Sears, these financial predators are extracting the value out of these retail establishments, forcing the closure of thousands of stores, and throwing tens of thousands of workers into the streets," Gleason added.
|
||||
|
||||
EVERY SINGLE ONE OF THESE RETAILERS WERE PURCHASED BY PRIVATE EQUITY FIRMS. MANY OF THESE PRIVATE EQUITY FIRMS HAD LONG POSTIONS IN AMAZON. THIS IS A DIRECT CONFLICT OF INTEREST SINCE A FIRM LONG AMZN WOULD HAVE MORE TO GAIN FROM A COMPETITOR GOING OUT OF BUSINESS/RELIQUISHING MARKET SHARE.
|
||||
|
||||
You'll also notice that the above CNN article does it's best to shift narrative to competing retailers inability to take online shopping seriously; but if private equity had controlling interest, wouldn't they be at fault from negligence? You're telling me that private equity funds who are tech-conscious, going long AMZN aren't aware of how important online retail is?
|
||||
|
||||
When you actually look at the numbers these "failing" businesses produced, they aren't "bankruptcy" bad at all. Toys R' Us booked $941M in e-commerce sales in 2016.
|
||||
|
||||
In 2012, KKR, Blackstone, Bain, J.P Morgan and Goldman Sachs where accused of insider trading and co-operation by rigging the prices of securities (sound familiar?)
|
||||
|
||||
<https://www.cbsnews.com/news/bain-blackstone-kkr-accused-of-rigging-bids/>
|
||||
|
||||
Bain Capital was exposed for corporate-tax avoidance through Cayman Island Ratholes by Gawker in 2009 (co-founder Mitt Romney is still an active investor in Bain):
|
||||
|
||||
<https://www.cbsnews.com/news/bain-capitals-tax-breaks-are-they-legal/>
|
||||
|
||||
Establishing a Narrative: The "Only" Online Retailer and "the Technological Advantage"
|
||||
|
||||
I just want to ask one question. If being an online only retailer is the most competitive business model. Why the fuck is Amazon opening physical retail locations?
|
||||
|
||||
Because the "people only shop online" narrative is over-embellished and AMZN was not the "only" online retailer (contrary to press opinion). Amazon was a company that received insanely positive reception by mainstream press and financial tabloids but the majority of their income is not provided by retail, but a result of Amazon Web Services (AWS).
|
||||
|
||||
Bezos intentionally breached anti-competitive law to ensure Amazon competitors would have more difficulty establishing themselves as an online retailer.
|
||||
|
||||
Toys R Us was acquired by hedge funds 2005; Amazon started selling Toys and Childcare products 2006 with exclusivity agreement with Toys R' Us.
|
||||
|
||||
Amazon abused agreements through Merchant Partnerships with Toys R' Us:
|
||||
|
||||
<https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Amazon_(company)>
|
||||
|
||||
" In 2000, U.S. toy retailer [Toys "R" Us](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Toys_%22R%22_Us) entered into a 10-year agreement with Amazon, valued at $50 million per year plus a cut of sales, under which Toys "R" Us would be the exclusive supplier of toys and baby products on the service, and the chain's website would redirect to Amazon's Toys & Games category. Amazon had knowingly allowed third-party sellers to offer items on the service in categories that Toys "R" Us had been granted exclusivity. In 2006, a court ruled in favor of Toys "R" Us, giving it the right to unwind its agreement with Amazon and establish its own independent e-commerce website. The company was later awarded $51 million in damages."
|
||||
|
||||
Examining the (resourceful) Amazon's Board of Directors:
|
||||
|
||||
[This graphic does not include U.S Army General Keith B. Alexander, who joined the BOD in September 2020](https://preview.redd.it/zjq6nc6ht3071.jpg?width=1200&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=8a637b0cc56810ad86ba13fb4c019852dfb640f5)
|
||||
|
||||
As of September 2020 the Amazon Board of Director's includes:
|
||||
|
||||
> Former National Security Agency (NSA) Director and 4 Star Army General Keith Alexander
|
||||
|
||||
> Former Gates Foundation Executive Patty Stonesifer
|
||||
|
||||
> Managing Partner at the Seattle based Madrona Venture Group and former Harvard alumi: Tom Alberg. Madrona VG specializes in early-stage technology investing and have long held big positions in MSFT and AMZN, which are both headquartered in Seattle.
|
||||
|
||||
This article highlights just how influential Madrona is: "The firm is nearly synonymous with Seattle's venture capital scene --- a powerhouse so strong that some entrepreneurs fret over the influence it holds as a funding gatekeeper."
|
||||
|
||||
<https://www.geekwire.com/2020/tom-alberg-bet-seattle-amazon-shaping-regions-tech-industry-building-legacy-understated-influence/>
|
||||
|
||||
Fun Fact: In this video Bezos mentions starting Amazon in Seattle because of Bill Gates and Microsoft's presence there: <https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f3NBQcAqyu4&t=223s>
|
||||
|
||||
Fast forward to today MSFT and AMZN are two of the largest web services companies in the world and Bill Gates + Jeff Bezos are two of the richest men in the world.
|
||||
|
||||
<https://www.wsj.com/articles/microsoft-seeks-startup-partnerships-in-battle-with-amazon-over-cloud-11600077601>
|
||||
|
||||
<https://www.cnbc.com/2019/10/25/microsoft-wins-major-defense-cloud-contract-beating-out-amazon.html>
|
||||
|
||||
Gates' Cascade Investments and Alberg's Madrona provided unique relationships and capital to Bezos in Seattle.
|
||||
|
||||
PRIVATE EQUITY PURCHASES THE COMPETIOR, HEDGE FUNDS NAKED SHORT THE COMPETITOR, HEDGE FUNDS PUT PROCEEDS OF NAKED SHORT SALES INTO AMAZON STOCK.
|
||||
|
||||
[Henry Kravis of KKR: All around scumbag and pioneer of the private equity Leveraged Buyout; starting with RJR Nabisco in 1989. At the time the buyout was described in the book \"Barbarians at the Gate\" as a preeminent example of corporate and executive greed.](https://preview.redd.it/utb0pk8lt3071.jpg?width=474&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=c9d6c327a47a8f6376dd346f29a10f715391c19b)
|
||||
|
||||
KKR purchased Toys R Us by way of leveraged buyout in 2005 (and abandoned that debt to schmuck fund; Solos Alternative Asset Management and eventually the taxpayer), you can read about this saga here:
|
||||
|
||||
<https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/comments/n1x909/companies_destroyed_by_hedge_funds_how_gamestop/>
|
||||
|
||||
Former executives of Bain Capital & KKR were sued by the creditors of Toys R Us' for theft and improper appropriation of debt before filing for bankruptcy:
|
||||
|
||||
<https://finance.yahoo.com/news/toys-r-us-creditors-sue-050000919.html>
|
||||
|
||||
<https://www.barrons.com/articles/private-equity-firms-provide-20-million-in-assistance-for-former-toys-r-us-employees-1542737621>
|
||||
|
||||
Toys R Us cost to society: 36,000 jobs
|
||||
|
||||
The CEO of Borders Group was fired and replaced with a former private equity manager; then over the next decade ownership was sold through a leveraged buyout to 3 different private equity firms until Borders Group declared bankruptcy (I think I'm noticing a pattern here):
|
||||
|
||||
<https://www.mlive.com/business/ann-arbor/2009/04/borders_paid_ousted_ceo_george.html>
|
||||
|
||||
Borders bankruptcy cost to society: 19,500 jobs lost
|
||||
|
||||
SEARS (who merged with Kmart in 2005) was the victim of a leveraged buyout by private equity:
|
||||
|
||||
<https://www.cnbc.com/2019/02/07/eddie-lamperts-deal-to-buy-sears-approved-retailer-given-second-life.html>
|
||||
|
||||
Eddie Lampert, Steve Mnuechin and others were sued for damages over $2 Billion; claiming Eddie Lampert had siphoned money from Sears assets to his hedge fund ESL Investments.
|
||||
|
||||
<https://www.cnbc.com/2019/04/18/sears-sues-eddie-lampert-steven-mnuchin-others-for-alleged-thefts.html>
|
||||
|
||||
Sears/Kmart bankruptcy cost to society: 66,000 jobs
|
||||
|
||||
<https://www.theguardian.com/business/2018/dec/01/sears-workers-kmart-retail-eddie-lampert>
|
||||
|
||||
" For the last three years, traditional retail has announced the largest number of layoffs of any industry; this year marks the highest number of cuts since the recession recovery in 2009".
|
||||
|
||||
I believe every single one of these competitors stocks were the victim of naked shorting so Amazon could capture a larger market share; also allowing for further inflation in AMZN market cap regardless of sales and revenue results.
|
||||
|
||||
KKR has employed former Amazon and Walmart (another retail/grocery competitor with huge private equity backing) employees to senior positions of management and governance:
|
||||
|
||||
<https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-09-19/kkr-appoints-amazon-veteran-piacentini-as-senior-adviser>
|
||||
|
||||
Thomas M. Schoewe has been a member of the board of directors since March 14, 2011. Mr. Schoewe was executive vice president and chief financial officer for Wal-Mart Stores, Inc.
|
||||
|
||||
<https://ir.kkr.com/corporate-governance/>
|
||||
|
||||
KKR has also completed several real estate acquisitions with Amazon at a total cost of $840M:
|
||||
|
||||
<https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-04-01/kkr-buys-seattle-building-leased-to-amazon-for-580-million>
|
||||
|
||||
<https://www.cpexecutive.com/post/kkr-buys-1-msf-amazon-leased-warehouse-near-atlanta/>
|
||||
|
||||
<https://www.bizjournals.com/charlotte/news/2020/07/01/amazon-clt3-kannapolis-sale-to-kkr.html>
|
||||
|
||||
<https://www.kenoshanews.com/news/local/amazon-facilities-in-kenosha-sold-for-176-million-called-a-chicago-area-industrial-record/article_e4b24eed-e6af-582f-8eb5-14aaa82dd8c0.html>
|
||||
|
||||
Jeff Bezos stepping down from the role of CEO on Feb 2nd. I believe this was done to prevent an individual like me from focusing on and informing a bunch of apes like you about his hedge fund history; raising questions about the legitimacy of competitive capitalism in an economy that allows for theft through naked shorting.
|
||||
|
||||
Alright so, Jeff Bezos' and Bill Gates' (among other billionaires such as Gabe Plotkin's) recent divorce filings. As I had the pleasure of learning from Joe Exotic in the documentary "Tiger King", individuals will use a divorce (or marriage) as a way to protect assets from seizure through legal maneuvering.
|
||||
|
||||
I believe Bezos and Gates understand that the current market environment is perilous and that many of the funds short on GME (among other high SI stocks) will need to liquidate their positions in blue chip stock upon margin call. AMZN and MSFT stand to lose a lot of capital.
|
||||
|
||||
Also, real quick why hasn't Gates' firm Cascade Investments filed a 13F (required by law) since September 2008 (when Lehman and Bear collapsed)? <https://fintel.io/if/cascade-investment>
|
||||
|
||||
Since 08' Cascade Investments has only filed a 15G, the SEC states this is a special form especially for firms that own "asset backed securities".
|
||||
|
||||
- SEC Form 15-12G is the certification and notice of termination of registration of a class of securities under Section 12(g)of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934.
|
||||
|
||||
- The Form is also used to provide notice of suspension of duty to file reports under sections 13 and 15(d) of the Securities Exchange Act.
|
||||
|
||||
- When a company registers securities, it is obligated by regulation to file periodic and current reports with the SEC. Form 15-12G may end those obligations as securities are de-issued.
|
||||
|
||||
Terminated registration of securities? Notice of suspension of duty to file? End obligation to file as securities are de-issued? Sounds strange.
|
||||
|
||||
<https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/sec-form-15-12g.asp>
|
||||
|
||||
Especially with his Epstein relationship this man has A LOT OF FUCKING QUESTIONS TO ANSWER.
|
||||
|
||||
Jeff Bezos stepped down as Amazon CEO on February 2nd, 5 days after the GME Gamma Squeeze, Jan 27th, 2021.
|
||||
|
||||
Now, you know why.
|
||||
|
||||
*HEDGE FUNDS and PRIVATE EQUITY STOLE THE AMERICAN RETAIL ECONOMY AND HANDED IT TO JEFF BEZOS.*
|
||||
|
||||
*Edit: This DD from* [u/Ren3666](https://www.reddit.com/u/Ren3666/) *as it provides AMAZING INSIGHT into the current media debt issue and digging into a "BLACK HOLE OF COVERAGE":*
|
||||
|
||||
<https://www.reddit.com/r/DDintoGME/comments/mwc62t/blackhole_of_coverage_biased_narrative_and_the/>
|
||||
|
||||
Couple that DD with this article: <https://www.cnbc.com/2018/11/07/billionaires-are-buying-media-companies-new-york-times-not-for-sale.html> Credit: [u/Slow_learner04](https://www.reddit.com/u/Slow_learner04/)
|
||||
|
||||
Bezos and Wall Street have the resources to disseminate narratives.
|
||||
|
||||
Fellow ape in the comments [u/BoAnonKryze](https://www.reddit.com/u/BoAnonKryze/) :
|
||||
|
||||
"one possible reason why the SHFs have been attacking GME so ruthlessly and pushing hard against retail is that GameStop has positioned itself to become a very real threat to Amazon in one of the biggest and fastest growing markets on the planet"
|
||||
|
||||
"You 🦍s are absolutely fucking magnificent."
|
||||
|
||||
TLDR:
|
||||
|
||||
By naked shorting competitors stocks; hedge funds who held long positions in AMZN could effectively "steal" money from a competing companies market cap and invest it into AMZN to inflate their stock price. Jeff Bezos maintained Wall Street relationships and breached anti-competitive corporate law to ensure competitors could not pivot to e-commerce in a time sensitive fashion. It is clear that multiple conflicts of interest went unchallenged, this helped to establish a narrative while relying on hedge funds to naked short competitors stocks using HFT strategies used at D.E Shaw.
|
||||
|
||||
The combined cost to society of Sears/Kmart, Toys R Us and Borders Group Bankruptcies = 121,000 JOBS + billions in taxpayer dollars. I FEEL SICK.
|
||||
|
||||
IF HEDGE-FUCKS DON'T UNDERSTAND IT YET, THIS IS WHY I 💎DIAMOND HAND🙌 THE GIGASTONK: GME. THIS BLATANT ABUSE OF THE SYSTEM HAS NOT (AND WILL NOT) BE ADRESSED UNTIL IT HAS TO BE.
|
||||
|
||||
SO I WILL HOLD UNTIL IT HAS TO BE. CORRUPT FOLKS OF THE FINANCIAL ELITE BEWARE. YOUR MONEY IS ABOUT TO BE APES' MONEY. HEDGE FUNDS ARE THE EXPIRED APEX PREDATOR AND APES ARE ABOUT TO REPLACE THEM. I'LL TAKE ALL YOUR TENDIES BEFORE YOU TAKE GAMESTOP.
|
||||
|
||||
BEWARE HEDGIE, BEWARE. 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀
|
476
DD/2021-05-24-GME-Masters-Guide.md
Normal file
476
DD/2021-05-24-GME-Masters-Guide.md
Normal file
@ -0,0 +1,476 @@
|
||||
The GME Masters' Guide: A DD Campaign for Apes Levels 1-20 (The GME Story in 100 DDs)
|
||||
=====================================================================================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/Blanderson_Snooper](https://www.reddit.com/user/Blanderson_Snooper/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/njwv6n/the_gme_masters_guide_a_dd_campaign_for_apes/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
[Possible DD 👨🔬](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22Possible%20DD%20%F0%9F%91%A8%E2%80%8D%F0%9F%94%AC%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||
Hi all, Blanderson here, back this time with all the DD you wanted in a story you didn't ask for.
|
||||
|
||||
Here are 100 DDs that have shaped the GME saga.
|
||||
|
||||
This is the story of you, Apes, and the DD writers who have held us together and made us proud. As always, I hope you will enjoy.
|
||||
|
||||
I polled the Daily Chat about the name of this post and wanted to shout out some of the top alternatives.
|
||||
|
||||
[u/scrollwheeler](https://www.reddit.com/u/scrollwheeler/) - "The Snoop Scoop"
|
||||
|
||||
[u/jaxpied](https://www.reddit.com/u/jaxpied/) - "🍌🚀"
|
||||
|
||||
[u/Hefaystos](https://www.reddit.com/u/Hefaystos/) - "Another useless DD that has nothing smart inside and is nothing more than karma farming."
|
||||
|
||||
All very strong contenders, tbh.
|
||||
|
||||
💎🙌🦍💗🚀🚀
|
||||
|
||||
Lately I have seen a lot of new Apes joining the community, but confused about where to start. I have also seen Apes that need a bit of a confidence boost, or that just want to add a wrinkle about a particular topic so they can sleep better at night. And yes, even some shills get in on the action when they think they can use it to drive a wedge in the community. I literally saw two MOAFUDs in the Daily Chat last night while on patrol.
|
||||
|
||||
And you know what, I often find myself unable to answer their questions satisfactorily. I know that *at some point in the past* I came to understand or believe a piece of the puzzle -- SI% is Fake, shorts haven't covered, MOASS inevitable, for example -- but my diamond mind had forgotten the source of its strength.
|
||||
|
||||
In my opinion we want to welcome as many new Apes into the fold as possible, and we want to be able to parry any FUD quickly with a link to the 💎🙌 facts and arguments.
|
||||
|
||||
That's what this guide is for.
|
||||
|
||||
tl;dr: A chronologically and topically organized guide to the DD that explains the situation at hand and the history of the Apes' contributions to one another. This can be used to quickly get new Apes up to speed, or to confidently shoot down FUD and leave evidence for those who find the comments and posts later.
|
||||
|
||||
I selected DD that I think tells the story of how we got from there to here, as simply and clearly as possible. It's meant to be all the DD necessary to explain the Ape mantra:
|
||||
|
||||
Buy. HODL. Vote. Shorts must cover. MOASS is inevitable.
|
||||
|
||||
Oh yeah, and just for fun I organized it like an RPG campaign guide, combining backstory with mechanics and an actual play report. I know, I can be a little extra at times.
|
||||
|
||||
You'll have to forgive me writing my own character in. I might be one of those annoying GMs that falls too in love with their own character. It's all in good fun, and as always I'm proud to be one among the many (the all!) that have made us stronger together.
|
||||
|
||||
This is not an exhaustive list and I'm happy to add to it if I missed something. Let me know in the comments. The fact that this is such a limited-yet-still-overwhelming amount of DD fills me with such gratitude for everyone that has contributed to this journey, including those not named here, the silent HODLers, and everyone else I wrote about in [my poem at the end of Wargame Theory II](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/ng4ja0/wargame_theory_ii_the_mother_of_all_fud_moafud/). Just the DD produced in the last week is mindblowing and has its own section.
|
||||
|
||||
In addition to a handy guide, I hope this will forever be a fun way to remember a small fraction of what we've built here.
|
||||
|
||||
Love you Apes. 💕🦍🦍🦍🦍💕
|
||||
|
||||
--Blanderson
|
||||
|
||||
Overview of the Campaign
|
||||
|
||||
*The first link contains a glossary of key terms and basic overview of the GME story from 2019 to the present. The second link is a broad overview of how GameStop, $GME, the Apes, and retail have been deceived and attacked over the past two years.*
|
||||
|
||||
*These are included for 0-level Apes who are just joining the party. Reading them will give you enough experience to hit Level 1 and start the DD adventure!*
|
||||
|
||||
frugihoyi
|
||||
|
||||
[The Mother of All GME Summaries for the Smooth Brained](https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/comments/mk46c5/the_mother_of_all_gme_summaries_for_the_smooth/) - Apr 4
|
||||
|
||||
TitusSupremus
|
||||
|
||||
[One DD to Rule Them All](https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/kz7ygv/gme_dd_one_dd_to_rule_them_one_dd_to_find_them/) - Jan 17 (amazing historical post!)
|
||||
|
||||
FfMCaR
|
||||
|
||||
[Anatomy of a Short Attack](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/mo9a9f/anatomy_of_a_short_attack_written_2014/) - Apr 10
|
||||
|
||||
Introductory Adventure: Mystery at WallStreetBets (Lvl 1-5)
|
||||
|
||||
Encounter 1: The WTF in Late January
|
||||
|
||||
> *"That's not a squeeze, this (MOASS) is a squeeze!"*
|
||||
|
||||
*Whether you lived through it or arrived to the GME party fashionably late, this is a fascinating series of posts that read like a war journal written the week of the January blip. They also act as an introduction to technical analysis and the confusion people felt over how it all went down.*
|
||||
|
||||
jn_ku
|
||||
|
||||
[Gamestop Big Picture: The Short Singularity Part 1](https://www.reddit.com/r/investing/comments/l5l413/gamestop_big_picture_the_short_singularity/) - Jan 26
|
||||
|
||||
[Gamestop Big Picture: The Short Singularity Part 2](https://www.reddit.com/r/investing/comments/l6xc8l/gamestop_big_picture_the_short_singularity_pt_2/) - Jan 28
|
||||
|
||||
[Gamestop Big Picture: The Short Singularity Part 3](https://www.reddit.com/r/investing/comments/l7qlfh/gamestop_big_picture_the_short_singularity_pt_3/) - Jan 29
|
||||
|
||||
[Gamestop Big Picture: Technical Recap 1/25-1/29](https://www.reddit.com/r/investing/comments/l8jwsl/gamestop_big_picture_technical_recap_125_129/) - Jan 30
|
||||
|
||||
Encounter 2: Gremlins in the Squeeze Engine
|
||||
|
||||
*We follow jn_ku over the next few weeks, as Gamestop spirals farther and farther away from technical analysis and everyone wonders, what's next? You can hear and feel the struggle that rational, technical traders felt regarding Gamestop during this period. The machine wasn't working, but they couldn't yet see the gremlins.*
|
||||
|
||||
*To be fair, it was hard to concentrate as the distant echo of millions of Apes bubbled up through the air ducts like drums...drums in the deep.*
|
||||
|
||||
*You can also see early evidence of shilling, or social attacks on and off Reddit, which* [will become one of the recurring enemies in this campaign](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/mnjqpw/dont_forget_what_they_did_a_running_list_of_fud/)*. Just like DFV, jn_ku suffers ridicule, shaming, and aggressive attempts to scare him off talking about GME at all. Here's his beautiful response:*
|
||||
|
||||
> I have to admit, I was conflicted about this, because the risk is very high, as I've always stated.
|
||||
>
|
||||
> That being said, I believe that participation in the market is one of the most important rights people should have, and equal participation in the market requires knowledge, transparency, and information. You are all free to make our own choices. Whatever others may say, You *will* make your own choices. At least we can try to help each other make those choices with the best information we have available.
|
||||
|
||||
*Fucking legend.*
|
||||
|
||||
*His persistence pays off, as he realizes early on that the MOASS is not only a dream, but a technical possibility. The Mother of All Short Squeezes is no macguffin, as the shills claim, but the priceless treasure that drives the entire campaign.*
|
||||
|
||||
*Of course, our heroes still do not know how much acquiring that treasure could change the world. That came later.*
|
||||
|
||||
jn_ku
|
||||
|
||||
[Gamestop Big Picture: Market Mechanics](https://www.reddit.com/r/investing/comments/l97jbo/gamestop_big_picture_market_mechanics/) - Jan 31
|
||||
|
||||
[Gamestop Big Picture: Theory, Strategy, Reality](https://www.reddit.com/r/investing/comments/lasgrh/gamestop_big_picture_theory_strategy_reality/) - Feb 2
|
||||
|
||||
[Gamestop Big Picture: Has the Game Stopped?](https://www.reddit.com/r/investing/comments/lbjzsn/gamestop_big_picture_has_the_game_stopped/) - Feb 3
|
||||
|
||||
[Gamestop Big Picture: Evolution of a Trade](https://www.reddit.com/r/investing/comments/lcc24v/gamestop_big_picture_evolution_of_a_trade/) - Feb 4
|
||||
|
||||
[Gamestop Big Picture: The Bigger Picture](https://www.reddit.com/r/investing/comments/leju1l/gamestop_big_picture_the_bigger_picture/) - Feb 7
|
||||
|
||||
[Gamestop Big Picture: Final Thoughts](https://www.reddit.com/r/investing/comments/ljo7cp/gamestop_big_picture_final_thoughts/) - Feb 14
|
||||
|
||||
*Finally, jn_ku lays out the five pillars of the MOASS from which much of the technical and cultural DD will follow. This guy is like the Dead Sea Scrolls of the Ape Bible.*
|
||||
|
||||
[Gamestop MOASS: No Tinfoil Required](https://www.reddit.com/user/jn_ku/comments/m4fnfg/gamestop_moass_no_tinfoil_hat_required/) - Mar 13
|
||||
|
||||
*With the MOASS a confirmed possibility, and armed with a treasure map in the form of technical analysis, our heroes set off to claim that which should have been theirs. But something seems off about the map. Lines and images shift as quickly as they are followed. Going up takes them down, in contrast to all normal market mechanics. They can never quite get where they are going.*
|
||||
|
||||
*They consult an oracle, who tells them to look for turmoil in other lands for a sense of what is coming.*
|
||||
|
||||
Tucker-French
|
||||
|
||||
[Detecting Squeezes Based on Regional Variance](https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/comments/lqrzau/detecting_squeezes_based_on_regional_variance_a/) - Feb 23
|
||||
|
||||
*And lo! They found much turmoil, and for the next two weeks the price of Gamestop rose sharply. It seemed the oracle was right and the squeeze was on!*
|
||||
|
||||
*Until, on March 10th, it all came crashing back down.*
|
||||
|
||||
*But how? And who was behind this shadowy manipulation? The Apes would spend the next months convening sages and wizards from different lands about this dark magic that should not exist.*
|
||||
|
||||
*What they found would change the way they see the world forever.*
|
||||
|
||||
Second Adventure: The Citadel on Loch Mihgn (Lvl 6-10)
|
||||
|
||||
*This adventure introduces the campaign's main villain, Citadel Securities, and uncovers the fuckery afoot in the treasure map.*
|
||||
|
||||
Adventure Background
|
||||
|
||||
*The Apes found themselves in a strange position throughout February. Those who held through the dip to $40 were granted the title* 💎🙌 *and, as individual investors, chose to repeat the* 💎🙌🦍 *Mantra*:
|
||||
|
||||
Buy. Hodl. The Shorts Must Cover.
|
||||
|
||||
*They still had no idea wen moon, though, and shills had infiltrated the community to its highest levels. Tensions were running high, as the technical picture still wasn't clear and the lines on the map just kept squirming. Fear, Uncertainty, and Doubt were on the rise.*
|
||||
|
||||
*In came an Ape with a particular set of skills, a master shill-hunter, to lend the Apes support and help them stay strong together.*
|
||||
|
||||
Blanderson_Snooper
|
||||
|
||||
[GME Apes: A Cultural Due Diligence](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nhx7f2/gme_apes_a_cultural_due_diligence_prequel_to_the/) - Mar 17
|
||||
|
||||
*The shill-hunter gave them this advice:*
|
||||
|
||||
> Since the hedgies' primary weapon is hidden information, they are trapped. To wield their weapon is to lose it, and to lose it guarantees defeat. The open, shared information of the Apes is the opposite. It is a weapon that appears weak in the face of institutional authority and lies, but at least it can be wielded. And if wielded long enough, it forces the other side to flee the battlefield or admit defeat.
|
||||
>
|
||||
> This is how the squeeze gets squoze.
|
||||
|
||||
*The Apes looked at the masterwork information they had gathered so far, and set out to enchant it with magical powers.*
|
||||
|
||||
Encounter 1: The Sages of Technical Analysis
|
||||
|
||||
*The Apes sought the Sages of Technical Analysis to add wrinkles to their very smooth brains. The first two sages they found were young and eager. Believing the MOASS to be at hand, they tried to teach the Apes how to individually unlock the MOASS treasure vault.*
|
||||
|
||||
WardenElite - [Exit Strategy (partial)](https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/comments/m073v6/exit_strategy_dd_a_comprehensive_guide_to/) - Mar 7
|
||||
|
||||
NHNE - [Exit Strategy (partial)](https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/comments/m0r4kg/gme_exit_strategy_here_is_what_i_not_we_i_am) - Mar 8
|
||||
|
||||
*The Apes found this information confounding at the time, because no MOASS seemed to be appearing on the map. As they went on their way, they came upon a strange sight: a robust, white-haired sage emerging from an outhouse, still wiping his $ASS with a treasure map just like the ones the Apes were holding. They had found a master, and in his (clean) hand he held a book!*
|
||||
|
||||
HomeDepotHank69
|
||||
|
||||
[An Iliad of GME Technical Analysis and DD](https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/ma4oeo/an_illiad_of_gme_technical_analysis_and_dd/) - Mar 21
|
||||
|
||||
*Now this book was a trove of knowledge most certain, but it could only describe what was happening, not explain it. Hank farted as the Apes ooked and aaked, and neither was sure what to make of the other. As a parting gift, or just to get them to leave, Hank told the Apes where to find the Wizards of Data Discovery, who could decipher the various forms of fuckery afoot on the map.*
|
||||
|
||||
*The Apes sensed a lot of grinding and side quests ahead, and they weren't wrong. A list of new quests popped up on the Campaign Journal:*
|
||||
|
||||
- *How deep in the hole were the shorts?*
|
||||
|
||||
- *How were they manipulating the price in the face of constant Ape buying pressure?*
|
||||
|
||||
- *How long could they keep manipulating the price?*
|
||||
|
||||
- *Could the shorts win?*
|
||||
|
||||
*Before they could answer these questions, though, the enemy played a trump card. Shills infiltrated the moderation team of WallStreetBets and the Apes were forced to flee to the town of* [r/GME](https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/)*. There, for a time at least, they would be safe to research and HODL together.*
|
||||
|
||||
Encounter 2: The Wizards of Data Discovery and Analysis
|
||||
|
||||
*The Apes assembled the Data Wizards and each took on a quest, vowing to meet back at the Inn of the Last DFV Tweet in a few weeks' time. As soon as the Apes sent the wizards on their way, they began to ook and aak at memes until the front door of the inn SLAMMED open, revealing a bearded CannaBinoid wizard who bellowed, "Do you even know who you fight, you smoothbrained legion?!"*
|
||||
|
||||
atobitt
|
||||
|
||||
[Citadel Has No Clothes](https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/comments/m4c0p4/citadel_has_no_clothes/) - Mar 13
|
||||
|
||||
[Blackrock Bagholders, Inc.](https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/comments/m7o7iy/blackrock_bagholders_inc/) - Mar 18
|
||||
|
||||
*"Good lord!" thought the Apes. "Our enemy is vast, and the game is much larger than we thought. We must know what the wizards have found!"*
|
||||
|
||||
broccaaa - [Why GME prices are Suppressed](https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/comments/m5k32p/why_current_gme_prices_are_suppressed_and_hedges/) - Mar 15
|
||||
|
||||
Lancerevo012 - [GME Turnover Rate is 93%](https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/comments/m6m8fw/gme_turnover_ratio_at_93_rocket_is_fueled_primed/) - Mar 16
|
||||
|
||||
animasoul - [Extremely Abnormal Negative Beta (shorts haven't covered)](https://www.reddit.com/r/Wallstreetbetsnew/comments/m6g8u4/extremely_abnormal_negative_beta_of_gme_evidence/) - Mar 16
|
||||
|
||||
PM_ME_YOUR_ZeU - [It's Not Just GME: Decades of FTDs Are About to Crash the Entire Market](https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/comments/mbiocm/it_isnt_just_gme_the_entire_stock_market_has_been/) - Mar 23
|
||||
|
||||
animasoul - [Mystery of the Negative beta Solved - HFs are leveraged to the tits](https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/comments/mcwu5m/mystery_of_the_negative_beta_solved_hfs_are/) - Mar 25
|
||||
|
||||
AlternativeNo2917 - [True Value of a GME Share is $7,300](https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/comments/me2dm1/true_value_of_a_gme_share_is_722783/) (and $10m is not a meme) - Mar 26
|
||||
|
||||
Unowned-Instruction - [SI is > %2000, GME is a $100 Trillion Bubble](https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/comments/mewkf8/thesis_si_is_upwards_of_2000_gme_is_a_100/) - Mar 28
|
||||
|
||||
broccaaa - [The naked shorting scam revealed](https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/comments/mgj0j1/the_naked_shorting_scam_revealed_lending_of/) - Mar 30
|
||||
|
||||
dejf2 - [The SI% Is Fake](https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/comments/mhv22h/the_si_is_fake_i_found_44000000_million_shorts/) - Apr 1
|
||||
|
||||
*These investigations did wonders for the Apes' morale, as it became clear the hedge funds had no way out as long as the Apes never sold their shares. How long the game would go on was still anybody's guess, but the Apes were feeling good.*
|
||||
|
||||
*But wherever Apes party, shills lurk in the shadows.*
|
||||
|
||||
*One of the wizards had not yet returned, and the Apes were worried. Finally, dirty and bleeding, the missing wizard collapsed through the door.*
|
||||
|
||||
*"I was attacked by shills on the road outside town. They fear what I have to say. It's...it's..." he gasped as pain took over his senses.*
|
||||
|
||||
*"...worse than you thought?" Atobitt finished the unconscious man's sentence.*
|
||||
|
||||
Encounter 3: Investigating the Citadel
|
||||
|
||||
NorthBalance
|
||||
|
||||
[Citadel May Crash the Market Through Naked Shorting ETFs](https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/comments/md69vo/dd_why_gme_went_up_today_and_how_citadel_may/) - Mar 25
|
||||
|
||||
atobitt
|
||||
|
||||
[Walkin' and Talkin' Like a Duck: Citadel's Business Model is Fraud](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/ml48ov/walkin_like_a_duck_talkin_like_a_duck/) - Apr 6
|
||||
|
||||
*Just then, one of the barmaids pulled a wand and a sword out from behind the bar and said, "Now that you know, I can't let you leave here alive." Shills sprang from every direction,* [r/GME](https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/) *was infiltrated just as WallStreetBets had been before. Was there no end to the Citadel's reach?*
|
||||
|
||||
*The Apes chose to flee once again, this time to the land of* [r/Superstonk](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/) *where they hoped they could decipher the map at last.*
|
||||
|
||||
(Note: atobitt's [The Everything Short](https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/comments/mgucv2/the_everything_short/) from Mar 30 fits into the story here, but I have put it at the end in the Epic Level Adventure along with other things that veer away from pure GME analysis into something much deeper.)
|
||||
|
||||
Third Adventure: A Race for Time (Lvl 11-15)
|
||||
|
||||
Adventure Overview
|
||||
|
||||
*Having explored WallStreetBets and found a most curious treasure map, the Apes assembled the most wrinklebrained among them to try and decipher it. Each time they get close to finding the treasure, some foul market magic sends them back to the beginning.*
|
||||
|
||||
*A mysterious group called the FTD seems to be at the center of things, but they only emerge every few weeks for study. The nature of their magic is still unknown to the Sages and Wizards, who would be kept busy with these questions indefinitely.*
|
||||
|
||||
*At the same time, two new forms of analysis emerge during April and May, focusing on the evolving cultural and political environment surrounding GME. As Apes learned of the corruption they were facing, several questions began to emerge:*
|
||||
|
||||
- *Why is the SEC quiet on this?*
|
||||
|
||||
- *Why can we watch illegal activity on the ticker every day and nobody seems to care?*
|
||||
|
||||
- *How come Michael Burry deleted his Twitter after being visited by the SEC?*
|
||||
|
||||
- *Why are Ryan Cohen and Gamestop talking to Apes so much?*
|
||||
|
||||
- *How have we whittled the concept of 💎🙌 down to its simplest, most powerful form?*
|
||||
|
||||
- *How has our community made all the right choices along the way?*
|
||||
|
||||
*So the Apes called in yet more allies: the Bards of Bureaucracy, to unravel the mystery of the missing MOASS, and the Clerics of Culture to help forge Apes into diamond-minded FUD-killers as well as diamond hands.*
|
||||
|
||||
Encounter 1: The Bards of Bureaucracy
|
||||
|
||||
*These Apes started looking into a flurry of newly proposed and/or passed rules within the SEC, as well as the nomination of Gary Gensler to be its new chief, for clues as to why the price of the stock moved how it did. Apes were losing faith in technical analysis at this point because the stock never behaved as it should. While the sages and wizards investigated the hidden rules of the market, the bards took a trip to Washington D.C.*
|
||||
|
||||
c-digs - [Why Are We Trading Sideways? The Theory of Everything GME](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/mkvgew/why_are_we_trading_sideways_why_is_the_borrow/) - Apr 5
|
||||
|
||||
Beebsgaming - [The Latest Possible Date the Short Squeeze Can Start](https://www.reddit.com/user/BeebsGaming/comments/mnmynz/amc_gme_the_latest_possible_date_the_short/) - Apr 9
|
||||
|
||||
c-digs - [SR-OCC-2021-004: Why This Rule Change is Important and Possible Shell Games](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/mnpzu5/srocc2021004_why_this_proposed_rule_change_is/) - Apr 9
|
||||
|
||||
Makataui - [Critical Thinking (from a Psychology academic)](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/mtmqf3/critical_thinking_from_a_psychology_academic/) - Apr 18
|
||||
|
||||
c-digs - [Why We're Still Trading Sideways](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/mu9xed/why_were_still_trading_sideways_and_why_we_havent/) - Apr 19
|
||||
|
||||
*What they found were a handful of rules that suggested it might be the government or long whales controlling the price rather than the shorts, or at the very least that it might be a tug-of-war between both parties.*
|
||||
|
||||
*At some point could the longs have taken control of the game? If so, for what purpose and were the shorts even still involved?*
|
||||
|
||||
*Enter the Clerics of Culture to assure Apes that the game was still afoot, and that they were winning.*
|
||||
|
||||
Encounter 2: The Clerics of Culture
|
||||
|
||||
*As time went on, it became clear to the Apes that they were under constant surveillance and attack. They had gained 50,000 members in a matter of days, many of whom were certainly shills hiding amongst them. Enter the Clerics to guide them to the end of the journey.*
|
||||
|
||||
Eff_RobinHood - [Predatory Human Behaviors and Counter-Tactics](https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/comments/m56sb3/my_professionalacademic_background_has_been_in) - Mar 14
|
||||
|
||||
ayyyybro - [A Running List of GME FUD](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/mnjqpw/dont_forget_what_they_did_a_running_list_of_fud/) - Apr 9
|
||||
|
||||
Jakob_Xavier - [COINTELPRO Techniques for Dilution, Misdirection, and Control](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/mulstf/cointelpro_techniques_for_dilution_misdirection/) - Apr 16/20
|
||||
|
||||
Blanderson_Snooper - [The GME Wargame: A New Theory of Everything (My Final DD)](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/mvov2f/the_gme_wargame_a_new_theory_of_everything_my/) - Apr 22
|
||||
|
||||
Blanderson_Snooper - [The GME Wargame DD FAQ](https://www.reddit.com/user/Blanderson_Snooper/comments/myi3zb/the_gme_wargame_dd_faq/) - Apr 25
|
||||
|
||||
Pimmeltitte - [Ways Out of the Impatience Trap - A Psychological View](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/n10kku/ways_out_of_the_impatience_trap_a_psychological/) - Apr 29
|
||||
|
||||
HomeDepotHank69 - [Helping You Understand Why MM/HF Would Take These Risks](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/n42suk/hank_helping_you_understand_why_mmhfs_would_take/) - May 3
|
||||
|
||||
*At the same time, the wizards and sages had returned to fill Apes in on everything they had learned. The news was good, very good. Understanding the FTDs had led to the discovery of their mechanism for hiding them. Better still, that mechanism proved that not only had the shorts not covered, but that they had continued digging their hole every day since the January blip.*
|
||||
|
||||
augrr - [The Shell Game](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/mvvmvp/time_to_expose_the_shell_game_ftds_can_be_reset/) - Apr 21
|
||||
|
||||
augrr - [The Shell Game Pt2](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/mwnnmj/the_shell_game_revisited_how_etfs_work_and_what/) - Apr 22
|
||||
|
||||
ChefLambsauce1 - [Retail Easily Owns the Float](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/mwskkv/retail_easily_owns_100300_of_the_remaining_float/) - Apr 23
|
||||
|
||||
TheCaptainCog - [Retail owns at absolute MINIMUM 138 million shares](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/myaxaw/update_retail_users_own_at_absolute_minimum_138/) - Apr 25
|
||||
|
||||
augrr - [The Shell Game Pt3](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/myn9vn/the_shell_game_iii_lifting_the_final_cups_for/) - Apr 25
|
||||
|
||||
dejf2 - [Put Anomalies Pt1](https://www.reddit.com/r/DDintoGME/comments/n0ee7j/put_anomalies_pt1_were_127_million_synthetic/) - Apr 26
|
||||
|
||||
eastrod - [A Method for Hiding FTD's with Useless Puts](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/mzgtvx/a_method_for_hiding_ftds_that_uses_the_109mil/) - Apr 28
|
||||
|
||||
broccaaa - [The naked shorting scam using ETFs](https://www.reddit.com/r/DDintoGME/comments/n1x75w/the_naked_shorting_scam_using_etfs_mass_shifting/) - Apr 30
|
||||
|
||||
HomeDepotHank69 - [Huge FTD Cycle Update](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/n1wqlg/huge_ftd_cycle_dd_update_from_hank/) - Apr 30
|
||||
|
||||
Uncle Ziggy - [25 Reasons GME's Short Interest is High: A 6-Month Review](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/n8lraz/25_reasons_why_gmes_shortinterest_is_high_a/) - May 9
|
||||
|
||||
Nice-Violinist-6395 - [Presenting the Big Four - A Citadel Shorting Algo Gone Wild](https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/comments/nay4zw/presenting_the_big_four_four_separate_stocks_four/) - May 12
|
||||
|
||||
*Of course, with that news the Apes now shifted their attention once again to exit strategies and figuring out when the MOASS might occur using ALL of the knowledge they had gained. The Endgame was here...again.*
|
||||
|
||||
Fourth Adventure: To the MOASS and Beyond (Lvl 16-20)
|
||||
|
||||
*Superstonk's* [*non-monetized YouTube channel*](https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCI4EET9NJPWxUuXGlG6fxPA) *has begun hosting live AMAs with journalists, lawyers, economists, activists, and fintech experts to discuss the GME situation. These have been valuable for clarifying and improving the Apes' information, and raising morale with seasoned reinforcements.*
|
||||
|
||||
*May has been all about the slow march to the MOASS, preparing for executing our individual exit strategies, and dreaming about the future. We aren't dancing, we are adamant. We are diamond hands and diamond minds.*
|
||||
|
||||
*Here's how Apes are gearing up for the final adventure.*
|
||||
|
||||
Encounter 1: Predicting the MOASS
|
||||
|
||||
WardenElite - [The Mother of All Wedges: An Endgame DD](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/n5me5g/the_mother_of_all_wedges_an_endgame_dd_technical/) - May 5
|
||||
|
||||
canhazreddit - [DTC Says No Margin Calls in Jan, i.e. Shorts Didn't Cover](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/n6er77/holy_balls_from_the_dtcc_ceos_own_mouth_no_margin/) - May 6
|
||||
|
||||
Tucker-French - [Variance Update](https://www.reddit.com/user/Tucker-French/comments/n6ldp4/56_variance_update/) - (ignore his request to contact him.) - May 6
|
||||
|
||||
HomeDepotHank69 - [Theory of Everything](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/n66tzh/hanks_definitive_gme_theory_of_everything/) - May 6
|
||||
|
||||
Criand - [Shorts are Entering the Danger Zone](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/n792mf/all_shorts_must_cover_theyre_entering_the_danger/) - May 9
|
||||
|
||||
Leenixus - [FTD Cycle Reset Theory](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/ne0a9n/theory_ftd_reset_cycles_whats_coming_next/) - May 16
|
||||
|
||||
jollyradar - [SI Was Already Greater Than 140% in January](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/ndn2vt/some_of_you_may_not_be_aware_but_gme_had_ftds_all/) - May 16
|
||||
|
||||
Encounter 2: MOASS Preparation Resources
|
||||
|
||||
oaf_king - [Mental/Behavioral Preparation for a Short Squeeze](https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/comments/lzxbzm/be_adamant_some_reminders_for_managing_behavior/) - Mar 7
|
||||
|
||||
Limecandi - [Therapeutic techniques for managing during the MOASS](https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/comments/mdnohu/repost_therapeutic_techniques_for_managing_during) - Mar 26
|
||||
|
||||
franciscogil90 - [Anatomy of a Short Squeeze and Why No Ape Will Be a Bagholder](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/mos6zf/anatomy_of_a_short_squeeze_and_why_no_ape_will_be) - Apr 11
|
||||
|
||||
Anonymous - [An Ape's guide to self-care and anxiety management](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/mrqgtg/an_apes_guide_to_selfcare_and_anxiety_management/) - Apr 15
|
||||
|
||||
Blanderson_Snooper - [Compilation of MOASS and Exit Strategy DDs and Advice](https://www.reddit.com/r/DDintoGME/comments/n69qhp/compilation_of_moass_and_exit_strategy_dds_and/) - May 6
|
||||
|
||||
mrrippington - [Game Theory to Maximize Gains](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/n6wcum/an_apes_primer_to_decision_making_game_theory_vs/) (more complex) - May 7
|
||||
|
||||
HomeDepotHank69 - [Hank Visits GME's Bermuda Triangle](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/n9vyr4/hank_visits_gmes_bermuda_triangle_gone_sexual/) - May 11
|
||||
|
||||
2008UniGrad - [Moass Checklist R2](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nbdvii/moass_checklist_for_apes_things_to_think_about/) - May 12
|
||||
|
||||
floodmayhem - [A Little HODL Game Theory About Trust](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nhsbwt/a_little_hodl_game_theory_even_the_smooth_apes/) (simpler) - May 21
|
||||
|
||||
Magistricide - [The MOASS is Not a Straight Line Up: Don't Paperhand](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/njd8au/the_moass_is_not_a_straight_line_up_do_not_paper/) - May 23
|
||||
|
||||
NHNE - [Total Exit Strategy Overview](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/njrwwy/re_important_all_apes_need_to_read_this_to/) - May 23
|
||||
|
||||
Encounter 3: Post-MOASS Planning Resources
|
||||
|
||||
Soluna7827 - [Post-MOASS: Financial Advisors, Tax Attorneys, CPAs, & Wills](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/mutuhv/postmoass_an_indepth_examination_of_financial/) - Apr 20
|
||||
|
||||
dodecaphonecism - [Attorneys and You: A Guide for the Newly Rich](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/mzt5sm/attorneys_and_you_a_guide_to_the_newly_rich/) - Apr 27
|
||||
|
||||
DamsellinDistress - [Being Rich is Easy, Staying Rich Isn't - Harsh Truths](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/n3wdy1/being_rich_is_easy_staying_rich_isnt_harsh_truths/) - May 3
|
||||
|
||||
Encounter 4: The Week of May 17-May 23: Is the End Near?
|
||||
|
||||
tombq - [Glacier Capital Reveals New Short Position in GME](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/neehh0/glacier_capital_letter_to_investors_states_they/) - May 17
|
||||
|
||||
AdNo8854 - [Theory: Citadel is Hiding FTDs/Puts in Shell Companies](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nf8nsd/theory_glacier_and_other_new_hfs_are_just_shells/) - May 18
|
||||
|
||||
daddysmemes - [In Regards to Glacier's Short Positions](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nf2kub/reposting_this_for_more_visibility_in_regards_to/) - May 18
|
||||
|
||||
Leenixus - [Are We In Runaway Train Mode?](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nf68lm/theory_are_we_already_in_runaway_train_mode_or_in/) - May 18
|
||||
|
||||
c-digs - [The Brakes Might Be Off This Week](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nfagu1/this_week_might_be_it_the_brakes_are_possibly/) - May 18
|
||||
|
||||
jale_vm - [Suspicious Activity on German Exchange 3 Days In a Row](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/ngl441/suspicious_volume_in_german_stock_exchange_xetra/) - May 19
|
||||
|
||||
Blanderson_Snooper - [Wargame Theory II: Mother of All FUD (MOAFUD)](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/ng4ja0/wargame_theory_ii_the_mother_of_all_fud_moafud/) - May 19
|
||||
|
||||
Criand - [ICC, DTC, OCC Rules Updates](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/ngru15/the_flurry_of_rules_before_the_storm_dtc_icc_occ/) - May 20
|
||||
|
||||
Existing-Reference53 - [SR-DTC-2021-005 Locked and Loaded](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/ngwhzu/where_is_srdtc2021005_the_update/) - May 20
|
||||
|
||||
nothingbuttherainsir - [Go/No-Go for Launch - The Rules Checklist](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nhh0f1/update_go_nogo_for_launch_the_checklist_keeping/) - May 20
|
||||
|
||||
HomeDepotHank69 - [Random Updates and Systemic Analysis](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nhs1wy/hank_returns_from_the_dead_and_takes_a_dump/) - May 21
|
||||
|
||||
BeebsGaming - [An AMC Theory of Everything](https://www.reddit.com/r/DDintoGME/comments/n21ml0/amc_and_gme_why_share_price_doesnt_matter_right/) - May 22 (Echoes/updates the GME Wargame Theory)
|
||||
|
||||
Themeloncalling - [Every Ape Gets Paid (and It Won't Ruin the Economy)](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nihl31/every_ape_gets_paid_a_look_at_the_numbers/) - May 22
|
||||
|
||||
- ChemicalFist - [Comment About Taxes on Every Ape Gets Paid](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nihl31/every_ape_gets_paid_a_look_at_the_numbers/gz1xa7v) - May 22
|
||||
|
||||
🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀
|
||||
|
||||
There we go, 100 DDs that tell the story, calm the mind, and shine a light on just a fraction of what we have been through and accomplished together.
|
||||
|
||||
For visual purposes I decided not to tag the individual authors, so if you think one of them would like to see this or you've been helped or moved by something written above, I encourage you to tag the authors in a comment below and thank them.
|
||||
|
||||
I finish typing this as I wait for the markets to open on what could be the greatest day of Apes' lives (Homer: "Greatest day SO FAR"), the beginning of the worst financial crisis in history, or some combination of both (May 24). Now I'm going to post this and join the rest of you. Maybe today's the day we decipher the map, if not there are more good days ahead.
|
||||
|
||||
I'll let Lou Reed close this out for me,
|
||||
|
||||
> Oh such a perfect day
|
||||
>
|
||||
> I'm glad I spent it with you
|
||||
>
|
||||
> Oh such a perfect day
|
||||
>
|
||||
> You just keep me hangin' on
|
||||
>
|
||||
> You just keep me hangin' on
|
||||
|
||||
With love and rockets,
|
||||
|
||||
Blanderson
|
||||
|
||||
💎🙌💎💓🦍🚀🚀🌜
|
||||
|
||||
Appendix A
|
||||
|
||||
Venture into the epic-level DD below if you want to see just how far this thing might go. By the time you read this, we may know the truth about all of this.
|
||||
|
||||
Epic Level Adventure: The Deepest Depths of DD
|
||||
|
||||
These DDs are not for the faint of heart, and go beyond what I consider to be strictly GME DD. They are about what the GME saga has revealed about the U.S. economy and stock market. It's the best investigative journalism on the subject, and will, IMO, be where future journalists start when they seek to understand what's to come.
|
||||
|
||||
Again, if you're here for GME DD, this section is, IMO, unnecessary unless you've read everything else and STILL wonder how the fuck we got here and where we might be going. Here ya go.
|
||||
|
||||
atobitt - [The Everything Short](https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/comments/mgucv2/the_everything_short/) - Mar 30
|
||||
|
||||
sharkbaitlol - [Chaos Theory: The Final Connection](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/mseyai/chaos_theory_the_final_connection/) - Apr 6
|
||||
|
||||
JustBeingPunny - [SR-DTCC-2021-004, Dozens of New Netting Accounts, and the CMBS Crisis](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/mur8bz/srdtc2021004_the_dtcc_and_jp_morgan_theyre/) - Apr 20
|
||||
|
||||
atobitt - [A House of Cards Part 1](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/mvk5dv/a_house_of_cards_part_1/) - Apr 21
|
||||
|
||||
plants69 - [The Imminent Liquidity Crisis and Reverse Repos Usage](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nhepn1/the_imminent_liquidity_crisis_reverse_repos_usage/) - May 20
|
||||
|
||||
Criand - [DTC Preparing for Massive Defaults, Crypto May Keep Tanking](https://www.reddit.com/r/CryptoCurrency/comments/nj2quj/dtc_icc_occ_passed_rules_this_week_to_prepare_for/) - May 23
|
||||
|
||||
Freadom6 - [CEOs of Major Banks Testifying/Margin Debt at All-Time High](https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/comments/nj6iz0/ceos_of_major_banks_testifying_this_week_margin/) - May 23
|
38
DD/2021-05-26-Gamma-Squeeze-Could-Be-Coming-Soon.md
Normal file
38
DD/2021-05-26-Gamma-Squeeze-Could-Be-Coming-Soon.md
Normal file
@ -0,0 +1,38 @@
|
||||
Gamma Squeeze Could Be Coming Soon!
|
||||
===================================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/yelyah2](https://www.reddit.com/user/yelyah2/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nlrtul/gamma_squeeze_could_be_coming_soon/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
[Education 👨🏫 | Data 🔢](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22Education%20%F0%9F%91%A8%E2%80%8D%F0%9F%8F%AB%20%7C%20Data%20%F0%9F%94%A2%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||
For anyone that follows me, I track total market delta neutral/gamma neutral prices using options data to help with trading. The gamma neutral price is the underlying price that creates a total market gamma of 0 across all GME options (all expiration dates). It is often associated with high volatility, and sometimes (especially in GME's case), it's associated with gamma squeezes.
|
||||
|
||||
The graph below summarizes the GME close price, Delta Neutral price (underlying where a total market delta is 0), and the Gamma Neutral price. You can see that a gamma neutral spike (at $7,387.08) occurred today for the first time since the 3/8 spike that started an 80% increase in a few days!
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/39sgr1p95j171.png?width=910&format=png&auto=webp&s=720e309950504c2759d106634cf6c331f17d9638)
|
||||
|
||||
GME 9/22/2020 - 5/26/2021
|
||||
|
||||
I have a few more graphs below that zooms in on various sections so you can see how the gamma neutral price spikes can help signal increases.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/rruwagby5j171.png?width=910&format=png&auto=webp&s=616dfac94d29b0b42d7e5c1e42db1d6d768c1928)
|
||||
|
||||
GME 2/19/2021 - 3/31/2021
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/ktkudkb96j171.png?width=910&format=png&auto=webp&s=51b48a9bc6738b664eba2e3c9fc4be763e914392)
|
||||
|
||||
GME 1/4/2021 - 2/17/2021
|
||||
|
||||
Additional information for those interested:
|
||||
|
||||
- Delta Neutral: price that creates a total market delta of 0 across all GME options (all expiration dates) for a given date. General observation is it acts like a theoretical floor (although the price can go lower, as seen in February). My theory is that as the underlying approaches the delta neutral, call options go on sale. As people buy call options, MM have to buy the stocks which increases the price. Most stocks like to hang out above the delta neutral, some dip below and create pressure that can shoot them back over the delta neutral (like what happened in February), and some like to hang out below (like the VIX).
|
||||
|
||||
- Gamma Neutral: price that creates a total market gamma of 0 across all GME options (all expiration dates) for a given date. General observation is it acts like support/resistance between the delta neutral and the underlying, and typically bounces around between the two prices for most plan (like we have seen with GME since April). It also goes crazy in periods of high volatility (as you can see by the infinite spikes). It can either be a prelude to a big spike, indicate the end of a large increase, or it can go to zero and indicate the end of a big drop. It's hard to say what it will predict, except that SOMETHING is going to happen when it goes off.
|
||||
|
||||
Comparison to other stock behavior: [Delta Neutral DD Update](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/ngl10o/delta_neutral_dd_update_we_need_more_volume/)
|
||||
|
||||
TDLR: Gamma squeeze could be coming!
|
156
DD/2021-05-29-Another-GME-DD-Dump-by-Hank.md
Normal file
156
DD/2021-05-29-Another-GME-DD-Dump-by-Hank.md
Normal file
@ -0,0 +1,156 @@
|
||||
Another GME DD dump from Hank
|
||||
=============================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/HomeDepotHank69](https://www.reddit.com/user/HomeDepotHank69/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nnsfs6/another_gme_dd_dump_from_hank/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
[DD 👨🔬](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22DD%20%F0%9F%91%A8%E2%80%8D%F0%9F%94%AC%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||
********** I am not a financial advisor, this is not financial advice **********
|
||||
|
||||
Apes, I've recently gotten into comedy and wanted to test out some of my jokes on you:
|
||||
|
||||
Why did the chicken cross the road? Because my wife is fucking the mailman.
|
||||
|
||||
What's the difference between GME and my wife? GME doesn't have four boyfriends.
|
||||
|
||||
How many HFs does it take to screw in a lightbulb? Seriously guys my wife is a cheating whore.
|
||||
|
||||
What happens after you eat five bags of flaming hot cheetos? You take a dump.
|
||||
|
||||
And that brings me to my next point. DUMP. Yes, apes, this will be yet another DD dump. No main purpose or direction, just a few DD theories from your favorite guncle Hank. As always this is not financial advice and I am not a financial advisor.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/j62o5z1nd3271.png?width=1280&format=png&auto=webp&s=3fadd49ed2199aecd9c01ac7b217ef553c17e13e)
|
||||
|
||||
Hankey the Christmas Poo for those of you who don't know
|
||||
|
||||
FTD cycle update
|
||||
|
||||
Alright everyone, so the FTD cycle theory was correct again for this period. For those of you who don't know/remember, this theory says that because of SEC FTD regulations, there is a predictable price and volume spilke every 21 trading days or 35 calendar days with about a +/- one day margin of error. If you look at the FTD cycle since september when it was only $10, the price each cycle is increasing exponentially as it is now over $200, which means that it is getting more and more expensive to stay in this game. Not gonna spend much time on this because I've covered it tons in my past DDs and many other apes are also getting into smaller FTD cycle research (which I love):
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/zfcmkgu0e3271.png?width=992&format=png&auto=webp&s=5eafc5606eff94d6cba24d8431f1b86b56ebf694)
|
||||
|
||||
In my opinion, this shows us something very important. First, it shows us that it is getting exponentially more expensive to stay in this game and that there should be a breaking point soon. Second, it shows that the media narrative that retail is the reason for this run up is flat out wrong. IMO retail stopped mass-buying GME in late January and has simply held and bought small amounts since then. This right now is all about institutions being forced to cover because retail continues to hold. It makes absolutely no sense that retail is just randomly deciding to buy GME in mass on absolutely no news every 21 trading days. This narrative makes sense because then they can blame us when it all blows up.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/z68ruuskh3271.png?width=1252&format=png&auto=webp&s=e83db4f3f6313f9fdc367f5837e0ad3a2d689b16)
|
||||
|
||||
Midday spikes
|
||||
|
||||
Apes, this has been one of the most baffling things for me to research and it has taken a ridiculously long amount of time. As I've explained, I have noticed that GME has these midday spikes in positive volume and price. Here are the requisites for those spikes:
|
||||
|
||||
1. They occur between 11am - 2:30pm (any times before or after that cannot be counted becuase it could be due to early market high volumes or power hour volumes)
|
||||
|
||||
2. They are the highest, second highest, or third highest single minute volume candles for the whole day (usually the highest)
|
||||
|
||||
3. They occur on no news and preceeding and proceeding candles are always significantly lower than them.
|
||||
|
||||
Here is an example of one:
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/lf7an2osz2271.png?width=860&format=png&auto=webp&s=b7c852928a9c6543c79398ab6ca62e70ed56586c)
|
||||
|
||||
Just to show you how pervasive this is, I went to a random day and found this one on my first try
|
||||
|
||||
Here is an example of one that IS NOT one of these spikes:
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/83uq0evwz2271.png?width=968&format=png&auto=webp&s=55d830e91024a94a4e9d80f3839712e16f01152d)
|
||||
|
||||
Volume is far too low compared to other times in the day.
|
||||
|
||||
IMO it would be far too dificult to document literally every single one of these and run some data comparisons on it. However, after looking at many of these, here are my observations:
|
||||
|
||||
1. This DOES NOT happen to normal stocks, this is extremely weird
|
||||
|
||||
2. This DOES happen to stocks like AMC, EXPR, NOK, etc. but happens less frequently
|
||||
|
||||
3. These midday volume spikes have picked up drastically post-squeeze
|
||||
|
||||
4. The spikes also started to pick up after GME hit $10 in October 2020
|
||||
|
||||
5. The spikes increased progressively more throughout 2020 and up to the squeeze
|
||||
|
||||
6. The spikes have been going on since 2018ish and have been increasing more and more
|
||||
|
||||
7. The spike sometimes happen for a few days in a row but never more than three days in a row
|
||||
|
||||
8. There is typically a 1-4 day break in between spikes but never more than 5 days
|
||||
|
||||
9. The volume of these spikes (not price) has increased pretty regularly since 2020 but not consistently
|
||||
|
||||
What do I take away from all of this? I said in my last post that I think they are covering during these times. That would make sense because 11-2:30 is usually the lowest volume of the trading day, so they want to cover when they can be positive that a HFT wont swoop in and screw them over on the price. They also don't want their trades to give the stock momentum during high volume times because that could cause a price spike.
|
||||
|
||||
If you all rememeber that big beautiful FTD squeeze DD doc (I think it's from this website <https://iamnotafinancialadvisor.com/DD/GME/og/GMEv14.pdf> which is now defunct) they say that the GME shorting likely happened in 2017 or 2018 when they took on some debt and it was likely that they would default in 2020. Why did these midday spikes start increasing more in 2020? I'm guessing that the shorts piled on more naked shorts between March-May (when GME hit its all time lows) because they thought that it was going to go bankrupt because of covid. Once it got above $10, their positions got more and more expensive, so these midday FTD covers happened more and more. Now these midday covers seem like a mainstay, which IMO indicates that they are indeed fucked in their short positions.
|
||||
|
||||
Sadly, there is far too much data for me to codify and find significance; however, I have done enough observations that I'm pretty confident my above findings are correct. So IMO, it appears that this is what we are looking at in terms of the FTD cycle:
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/642523aw23271.png?width=1260&format=png&auto=webp&s=027d9261966882914a4e5c24065c00d8ee6bd898)
|
||||
|
||||
So within our giant 21 day FTD cycle we have these other cycle occuring as well (the smaller the shape, the more frequently it happens, but the more frequently it happens the smaller and less noticable it is). Again this is just a theory / my opinion but what this means is that because the shorts have such a giant short position that's too big for them to unravel (they financially cannot do it), there are predictable days and times where they have to cover based on SEC regulations. Now, this is not an invitation to try to predict these times and profit off of them, that's stupid and will probably lose you money (not financial advice). However, the fact that some retard named hank can find this simply by using trading chart patterns, a calendar, and SEC rules, shows that they are indeed in too deep.
|
||||
|
||||
What's the best part about all of this? Well, it's increasing at an exponential rate meaning it's getting exponentially more and more expensive for them to keep this shit up (see one of my previous posts for proof of exponential increase as this recent FTD cycle increase only adds to that). AGAIN, this, unlike my other FTD posts, is not based on concrete data, it is based on my observations when doing back testing. However, because I did many hours of back testing, I am confident that these observations are accurate. If someone does some kind of data collection on this, WOW you really are a god becuase that would be the most time consuming thing ever, but I think that based on what I've observed, my findings are correct.
|
||||
|
||||
One genius-retard, [u/startanks](https://www.reddit.com/u/startanks/), sent me this message a week ago and it has been giving me wet dreams ever since:
|
||||
|
||||
"Current regulations forces market makers to have their net capital requirements positive, which they check once a day at 1pm est. Therefore it is most likely shorts, as you said, buying back stock so their net cspital stays positive for the day. This is what dtcc-002 is trying to change. To add to your discussion of the spikes around 2pm everyday - Reverse Repos have same day maturity date that closes ~1:15-2pm everyday."
|
||||
|
||||
This, IMO, is fucking genius and gives even more credence to the DD coming out of this sub about the repo market. Apes, I have been a bull my entire life. I legit drink bull semen. But holy fuck, this market is making me a 🌈🐻. IMO, the market is over-leveraged, the market is pricing things like the recovery happened 6 months ago, banks and institutions did some shady-overleveraged shit with the SLR releif and other easings of restrictions during covid, inflation is likely to happen, the repo market is absolutely fucked, etc. etc. etc. I could literally write a giant DD on why I think that there is going to be a serious correction soon (not financial advice) - don't ask me to do this though - I am focused on GME and nothing else. I think this is why Burry shorted TSLA. I think that he has the same thesis as I do, but he thought that growth stocks would be hit the hardest during a correction. So his bet against TSLA is really just a bet against the market that uses TSLA as further leverage. If the market corrects it is likely that HFs will be forced to liquidate their GME positions. Like I said in my other post, we should not be praying for a market crash because that destroys lives. Instead, we should be grateful for the fact that we seem to have found a way to profit off of it at the expense of those who created it. Does GME benefit from a market correction or does it cause a market correction? Who knows.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/6aehjy8pg3271.png?width=1102&format=png&auto=webp&s=79c0e339113e137ebe0e27b0bf212f944f75afd8)
|
||||
|
||||
Earnings and annual meeting
|
||||
|
||||
You might have noticed that the very first chart in this post shows a consolidation pattern (red lines) that converge on earnings. I also covered this in a previous post. It appears that we have broken that trend. IMO, as I said in my post recent post, there is a good chance that this was simply to make apes think that the squeeze is over so that we sell before the annual meeting. IMO, I think that the annual meeting will be a slam fucking dunk. It will probably be the start of the squeeze (i.e. the catalyst that gets it going) but will probably not be the squeeze itself. Essentially, the annual meeting, IMO, will show us whether the MOASS will be a January-style squeeze (rapid and short) or a TSLA-type squeeze (slow and long).
|
||||
|
||||
The reason I think it will be the start is because of the lack of information that we've been given about GME from leadership in the past few weeks and their incentive to have a good meeting. We've seen teasers (NFT thing) and RC tweets (btw there's no doubt in my mind that he reads through GME reddit posts and is on our side because you don't tweet like that if you're not. He's just being vague so he doesn't get investigated) that all point to a huge announcement. Could it be a CEO, a crypto dividend, notice that there are more votes than shares, NFT stuff, etc.? Either way, I think there will be an announcement there that kicks off the squeeze. More importantly, I think that it will gives whales a good entry point. Here's why:
|
||||
|
||||
I am going to use the example of George Soros' genius British pound trade (you can watch literally a billion Youtube videos on this). George soros made one of the greatest trades in history by shorting the British Pound. Essentially, he saw the British Central Bank doing dumb things that were going to devaule the currency and he saw technical weakness as well. He knew he was going to do this trade and knew why, however, he first needed some kind of news event or catalyst so that he could enter the trade so that others would join in. Essentially, Soros took a huge short position after some only slightly negative news about the Pound and it tanked. This made the rest of the market think that everyone was bearish, so it created a panic (after hours I may add so the volume was easily affected). People didn't realize that it was just one man doing this until it was far too late. (This is a metaphor for what I believe will happen to GME, George Soros is not involved in GME in any way - do not put your tin foil hat on).
|
||||
|
||||
I theorize that there is a long whale or several long whales waiting to pounce on GME for this exact reason. Whoever they are they have been consolidating GME's price for the past few months. I don't even think it's to lower IV anymore to set up a gamma squeeze. I know fully believe that whoever is doing this is trying to tame GME's price and will then pounce on it once there is appropriate news. Why? If the long whale just did this on no news the market wouldn't pounce on and be like "oh shit positive news, market loves GME" it would just be like "oh great more gamestop shit, it's retail again and it's gonna go away, I'm not getting in on this." Instead, if there's news and an influx of buying, the market might perceive that as "oh shit this news was way better than I thought I gotta get in. This is actually a fundamentally good opportunity." It doesn't matter if this is short or long term buying because once the price gets sufficiently high, the shorts get a call from marge. Again, this is all just a theory. However, RC tweet seems to confirm this as it says its coming back from the dead
|
||||
|
||||
If you have FUD, I would direct you to see my previous posts where I address FUD, but just to add some more. Remember all of the things that aren't normal about GME. Remember that DFV doubled down. Remember that we have more evidence of a squeeze happening than the people pre January did... and they didn't have a previous squeeze to compare to. Imagine how crazy people mustve thought they sounded, "you think it's gonna squeeze past $300? yeah ok." Then it happened. If they can hold with less evidence, fewer apes, and no previous squeeze to compare to, then yeah I FUCKING CAN TOO. (Not financial advice).
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/0lt1ep8mh3271.png?width=1190&format=png&auto=webp&s=9469b4104c46247cc21a335218b07c48c177f585)
|
||||
|
||||
Crypto and the FTD cycle
|
||||
|
||||
A few sexy apes have sent me some messages about crypto and GME. At first I thought this was bullshit but after doing some research, there seems to be something there. Every single FTD cycle is the lowest point that BTC gets (i.e. it decreases up to that day but doesn't decrease on that actual day by much then it goes back up). This got me thinking more about crypto and GME. Just like with GME's FTD cycle, when you see a repeating pattern like this in BTC (especially because it's so unregulated and easily manipulated) it's probably not a coincidence. What I think could be going on is that shorts are storing liquid cash in BTC in an attempt to hide their cash positions for disclosure/filing purposes. They are then liquidating those positions in the days preceeding the FTD cycle so they can pay for it. Notice how BTC climbs up the next few days after every FTD cycle? I still think there's something more going on here, however, because IMO it doesn't make sense to store cash in such a volatile asset, so if anyone has more ideas please send them my way:
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/5jrxoslbw2271.png?width=1900&format=png&auto=webp&s=f27bdbd05a28f3c9a646fa0a21dc86cc1ed920de)
|
||||
|
||||
Sorry about all the crazy dots and stuff those are my tard indicators. The red lines are FTD cycle days. Notice how there isn't a discerable up or down day on those dates. However, before each of those dates, BTC drops precipitously a few days prior. Like I said, that makes me think that HFs are storing capital in BTC (for whatever reason) and are liquidating it a few days prior to pay for the FTD cycle. Why was this recent BTC drop particularly bad? Well, it's because this FTD cycle was extremely more expensive AND there was horrible BTC news (elon tweets and investigations for one of the exchanges). Again, I think there's something else that I'm missing here, so if anyone has any ideas please send them my way or make your own DD!
|
||||
|
||||
Here is perhaps the most interesting thing that I've seen all week. A genius-retard by the name of [u/pleasantlyunbothered](https://www.reddit.com/u/pleasantlyunbothered/) (great name btw) sent me some information on a unique type of crypto that may have some relation to GME. This ape brought to my attention something called Saffron Finance, which "is designed to pool lioquidity to ease pressure off of over leveraged investors." So, I went on it's chart and marked the FTD cycle dates and circled days where GME had significant price dips:
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/5hprzpt2a3271.png?width=1930&format=png&auto=webp&s=ac9fdc266ac1f4fddf6c63d27e0d83372ad6407a)
|
||||
|
||||
It's not entirely clear if there is a correlation; however, it seems obvious, IMO that this concept (a place to ease liquidity troubles for overleveraged investors) could be a safe-haven for someone trying to hide a short position or hide capital to be used for short attacks. I am not saying anything definitive here and definitely need to do more research on this coin but it is something interesting to think about and again excellent find by the user who sent this to me.
|
||||
|
||||
AMC
|
||||
|
||||
I am now going to adress AMC. I've heard a lot of talk on here about how AMC is a distrction from GME or how anyone talking about AMC is a shill or how AMC is a HF ploy. What I'm about to say may make some of you mad but it needs to be said: stop fucking saying that because it's untrue, it makes us look jealous, it divides retail, and it makes us look like conspiracy theorists. Before I go further, let me first say that I have no position in AMC and am all in on GME. I think that GME is the better stock and has millions of times more potential than AMC.
|
||||
|
||||
If you look at my previous post where I discuss how there's a group of stocks that all have a similar pattern to GME (AMC, NOK, EXPR, KOSS, etc.), you will see that AMC is one of them. These stocks have a remarkably similar pattern and all seem to have started around may 2020. In that post, I go into how I think that HFs shorted all of these in concert because they expect covid to destroy them. When the market picked up, they got shafted on these bets, so they unravelled together. I said that GME was probably shorted the most and the best news happened to it, so that's why it shot up the most. Moreover, it is impossible for someone to be able to make a series of stocks behave in the exact same pattern for such a long period of time - it is the result of them being similarly shorted and SEC rules requiring similar coverages. Moreover, it makes absolutely no sense for a fund to pump up a stock that is already heavily shorted for the purpose of distracting from GME. Why would they spend their money on that when they could just short GME? It's clearly the result of an FTD cycle similar to GME (I mean GME did rise pretty significantly this week as well).
|
||||
|
||||
The thing that I keep seeing are these posts on days that AMC rises more than GME saying "if you talk about AMC, I'll report and downvote you." ARE YOU KIDDING ME? We should be saying "look at AMC, this shows us that the FTD cycle and naked shorting are happening to yet another GME-related stock. This is further evidence for our theory!"
|
||||
|
||||
So, please PLEASE stop saying that bullshit about AMC being a ploy to make us forget about GME. That is illogical, makes us look like conspiracy theorists, divides retail, and makes us look jealous. Do you realize that the fact that GME and AMC are rising in concert is further evidence that we are correct about all of this? It shows that HFs are being forced to cover on specific dates. If GME and AMC went up and down separately then the media would probably be correct about retail just buying in at random times, but this rise in concert gives us proof that they did the same thing with AMC that they did to GME (but to a lesser extent). So again, we should not be hostile to AMC - it is bad for us. Again, I do not have a position in AMC and think that GME is a better stock by miles (not financial advice). We should use the AMC run up as FURTHER PROOF that the FTD cycle theory and naked short theories are correct - we should not be saying that it's a distraction. To add to that, I've long said that if AMC squeezes first, I'd bet that people will use their profits on AMC to join GME.
|
||||
|
||||
We are all apes, we all have the same thesis about our respective stocks, and we are all fighting the same enemy - so let's not divide retail with this anti-AMC nonsense.
|
||||
|
||||
Before you message me, dont ask my thoughts on AMC. I am all in on GME because I like it better than AMC, so I will not be giving my thoughts on that stock, I just wanted to adress that point becuase I've been seeing it a lot.
|
||||
|
||||
Messages
|
||||
|
||||
Finally, I just wanted to adress my messages. As I have said, my inbox is always open and I try to answer every question. Just a warning though, if you want to message me, do it through my PMs (DMs). My posts get a lot of awards and activity so it's much harder for me to see regular messages because they get lopped in with award notifications, so if you want to reach me I'd recommend PMs. I'd say my response rate to PMs is probably 95% or so, but my regular message response rate is probably only like 50%. Finally, please do not message me about price floors, "thoughts on GME for the week," financial advice, selling advice, predictions, etc. as I will not be responding to these. If you have some information you'd like to share, I'd be happy to discuss it or if you have a question like "what is a gamma squeeze" I will probably answer it. But please do not ask me any questions about financial advice and the like as I will not be responding to those. To those of you who send me information, however, thank you so much. Many of you are often inspirations for my DDs and often contribute legitimate points to my DDs.
|
||||
|
||||
Closing thots
|
||||
|
||||
Apes, I, like many of you, feel that something is coming. The price action alone says enough but the information surrounding it says even more. As I said in my most recent warning post, be ready for some absolutely crazy price action in the coming weeks. I'm not sure when I'll be posting again but I hope that it will be soon. I will not be posting just for the fuck of it, I will be posting when I have something to say, so hopefully that will be within a week or two. Many of my very close followers saw that I put out a message saying I was thinking of expanding to another platform. You all overwhelmingly said YouTube. I am not sure when I will be doing this but I think it's a great idea and am going to make a plan to expand sometime in the future (probably not the near future but sometime in the future). As always,
|
||||
|
||||
Stay strong, apes.
|
||||
|
||||
********** I am not a financial advisor, this is not financial advice **********
|
||||
|
||||
EDIT: I did not want this post to be about AMC but so many people have messaged me about it so I had to make this edit. It makes absolutely zero sense for a fund to spend money on AMC for the sole purpose of making apes transfer over to AMC when they could be spending that money on shorting GME. If you think that AMC doubled this week because of FUD and misinformation and not institutions buying in then you don't understand how markets work. No stock doubles in a week without it being because of institutional buying. Retail has power but has been holding for months, so it was not retail. If it was retail, then wouldn't we have seen a drop in GME due to apes selling GME to buy AMC? Instead, we saw both increases. It's the result of two stocks being the victims of naked shorting. I absolutely love this sub more than anything and it kills me to see this kind of illogical, confirmation bias from some of you. Again, I do not have an AMC position and think that GME is infinitely better than AMC but we need to stop with this rhetoric because it's not helpful.
|
@ -0,0 +1,168 @@
|
||||
Things are shockingly similar to the February 24th and March 10th runup so far. Gamma squeeze indicators from the previous T+21/T+35 have returned. Their doom approaches.
|
||||
==========================================================================================================================================================================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/Criand](https://www.reddit.com/user/Criand/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nqbera/things_are_shockingly_similar_to_the_february/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
[DD 👨🔬](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22DD%20%F0%9F%91%A8%E2%80%8D%F0%9F%94%AC%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||
0\. Preface
|
||||
|
||||
I am not a financial advisor, and I do not provide financial advice! Everything within this post is my opinion and observations. They should be taken with skepticism. So grab a crayon my friends! June has started off absolutely wild!
|
||||
|
||||
TL;DR: Hedgies are close to meeting [their doom](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Nw_cdqQHGA8). DOOOM.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/umrwsell4r271.png?width=1277&format=png&auto=webp&s=43c58c358fa9130c22b5b6f5b81430992a9583fa)
|
||||
|
||||
I've been labeled as "Doomsayer" by my friends.
|
||||
|
||||
Actual TL;DR: June 1st has kicked off with the DTC, ICC, OCC auction and wind-down plans officially being in place. This means it is OK to launch the rocket because those three entities are now protected. We're seeing very similar price movements and gamma squeeze signals compared to the previous T+35/T+21 runup that occurred from February 24th to March 10th. This means that we could very well see another gamma squeeze of similar or greater magnitude which would begin to go parabolic around June 9th.
|
||||
|
||||
Note: This does NOT mean that a gamma squeeze WILL be coming. This is data supporting the fact that it COULD be coming. Do not take this as financial advice, and be aware that if you day trade you could miss the rocket.
|
||||
|
||||
1\. June Kicked Off A Few Things
|
||||
|
||||
Here's a list of things you might have missed (save for OCC-003) that are now in place as of June 1st. Which further supports that the MOASS is getting close!
|
||||
|
||||
- JP Morgan opened [MORE netting accounts](https://www.dtcc.com/-/media/Files/pdf/2021/5/25/MBS987-21.pdf).
|
||||
|
||||
- These are piggy banks for sucking up assets of defaulting members in the auctions of the DTC, ICC, and OCC. I wonder who JP Morgan is going to consume?
|
||||
|
||||
- DTC, ICC, and OCC wind-down and auction plans now all in place.
|
||||
|
||||
- [OCC-003](https://www.sec.gov/rules/sro/occ/2021/34-92038.pdf) was the final one to join. Welcome, OCC! All three entities are finally ready for the bomb.
|
||||
|
||||
- In my opinion this means that the rocket is ready for takeoff because these entities are now protected.
|
||||
|
||||
- ICC [index swaption](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/dowjonescdx.asp) discounts started through [ICC-014](https://www.sec.gov/rules/sro/icc/2021/34-91922.pdf).
|
||||
|
||||
- Think of this as an index like SPY/QQQ/VIX/etc. that watches for the potential defaults of others in the financial world.
|
||||
|
||||
- The base swaptions are just like options, they give you the right but not the obligation to buy (or sell) insurance. But, this rule is for the INDEX discounts - meaning it is a bundle of these swaptions among a bunch of entities.
|
||||
|
||||
- The ICC must be preparing for members of the index to be going on the brink of defaulting, or defaulting. From my interpretation, these discounts give others a cheaper hedge against defaults, and potentially get to scrape by instead of going under. This won't save the guys who are in too deep, it just helps everyone else to remain afloat after this market bomb goes off.
|
||||
|
||||
- ["Trading halt" rule amendments](https://www.reddit.com/r/DDintoGME/comments/no2ogw/two_approved_amendments_to_trading_halts_as_of_528/?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share) were passed May 28th, and are therefore in effect as of June 1st.
|
||||
|
||||
- The wording of these amendments are VERY interesting. And the timing is VERY interesting. Take a look.
|
||||
|
||||
- They will allow halts "In the event of a series of quotes, orders, or transactions at prices substantially unrelated to the current market for the security or securities"
|
||||
|
||||
- E.g. They are preparing for people to be placing sell orders on securities/stocks that are WAY far away from the current trading price. Sound familiar? Like if GME is trading at $260 and a sell order comes in for $100k, $500k, $1m, $10m, etc? Yeah. Very curious why they'd push this amendment out.
|
||||
|
||||
- Edit: This is most likely to have a slow burn upward in price on the standard +/-10% within 5 minutes trading halt. Don't worry about what has yet to happen. Only time will tell how this plays out!
|
||||
|
||||
2\. Similarities To The Previous T+21 T+35 Runup
|
||||
|
||||
It's quite amazing to look at everything right now and see the similarities. We already know that the T+21 loop is confirmed. It's like poetry. GME hits a beat in a cyclical manner every 21 trading days, and it is evidence that shorters are stuck in an endless dance. [Can we really look at T+21 and think that "they have covered their short positions"...?]
|
||||
|
||||
If we can see patterns emerge from T+21, we can most likely see patterns emerge from T+21 and T+35. And so far, the current T+21/T+35 looks shockingly similar to the previous T+21/T+35.
|
||||
|
||||
One similarity is the resurgence of gamma squeeze signals.
|
||||
|
||||
The amazing ape [/u/yelyah2](https://www.reddit.com/u/yelyah2/), and I'm sure many others, have been [identifying signs that a gamma squeeze could be coming](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nlrtul/gamma_squeeze_could_be_coming_soon/):
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/q69cchm7kq271.png?width=1128&format=png&auto=webp&s=811f48c1afbefe1b70605994fc49a5e9a8070b77)
|
||||
|
||||
Figure 1: Gamma Neutral Values; From /u/yelyah2
|
||||
|
||||
The most important data point to keep an eye on here is the yellow that spikes up/down. This is the "Gamma Neutral" value.
|
||||
|
||||
> The gamma neutral price is the underlying price that creates a total market gamma of 0 across all GME options (all expiration dates). It is often associated with high volatility, and sometimes (especially in GME's case), it's associated with gamma squeezes. - [/u/yelyah2](https://www.reddit.com/u/yelyah2/)
|
||||
|
||||
In other words, if you see Gamma Neutral spike up to the thousands and GME is currently trading in the hundreds, that means a Gamma Squeeze could be coming. Because the price needs to shift up to that amount in order to return gamma to 0 for a low-risk hedge. I'd definitely recommend reading their work on their findings!
|
||||
|
||||
You'll see that in the first purple circle of Figure 1, Gamma Neutral spikes up on February 24th. Gamma Neutral then slams back down a few days later because the pressure was killed off. About a week later, March 5th, Gamma Neutral spikes again and remains high until the flash-crash of March 10th. Up until the flash crash, GME went on an absolute run in price and was starting to go parabolic.
|
||||
|
||||
Take a look at the second purple circle of Figure 1. The same spike up/down over the course of a few days occurred again starting May 25th. Oddly similar to February 24th's spike up/down, right? Both brief anomalies initiated on T+21 dates.
|
||||
|
||||
Between March 10th and May 25th, Gamma Neutral hasn't spiked up at all, despite there being two additional T+21 cycles between:
|
||||
|
||||
- March 25th (T+21)
|
||||
|
||||
- April 26th (T+21)
|
||||
|
||||
Huh. What could have changed this time on May 25th?
|
||||
|
||||
[Enter T+21 and T+35](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nf22qz/theory_on_the_ftd_loop_missing_link_a_t35_surge/). The mechanics aren't fully fleshed out for why T+35 happens, I mean it's all based on patterns we see, but T+35 most likely applies to [Net Capital](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/n4h832/major_deep_itm_call_option_dates_a_massive_net/). Net Capital being that the shorters must adjust their short position debts after a timeframe of their debts being discovered, or risk going net negative. This must be done in order to not default, because going net negative would trigger a margin call.
|
||||
|
||||
These T+35's initiate from three major option dates:
|
||||
|
||||
1. January 15th, 2021 (--> February 24th)
|
||||
|
||||
2. April 16th, 2021 (--> May 24th)
|
||||
|
||||
3. July 16th, 2021 (--> August 23rd)
|
||||
|
||||
So, we're not looking at purely T+21 days, but a [wombo-combo](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pD_imYhNoQ4) of T+35 and T+21 which could very well be the reason gamma squeeze signals are flashing again. Per my theory, a T+35/T+21 occurred last week, May 25th, due to April 16th options expirations. And the previous T+35/T+21 occurred on February 24th.
|
||||
|
||||
COOL. So it appears that T+21/T+35 cycles can cause gamma squeezes due to the extra pressure on the shorters, and that might be why we're seeing a resurgence of the Gamma Neutral squeeze indicator this cycle. Oof, not a lot of data points, but hey. I like the patterns. 👀
|
||||
|
||||
Moving forward, let's take a look at the price movements over the past few days. Of note:
|
||||
|
||||
- The purple call-out boxes are pointing to T+21/T+35 cycles (Feb 24, May 25).
|
||||
|
||||
- The red call-out boxes are pointing to purely T+21 cycles (March 25, April 26).
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/jfeq0m27vq271.png?width=1323&format=png&auto=webp&s=37a8d9f5925ed265cd3673714d95adc9b600140e)
|
||||
|
||||
Figure 2: GME Price Activity; Similarities Between Feb 24 T+21/T+35 and May 25 T+21/T+35
|
||||
|
||||
Starting back at February 24th, all the way to the left of Figure 2, you'll see the purple callout box pointing to a purple box around the actual prices of GME. The lower bound of the box starts at the close price of February 24th, and the upper bound of the box ends at the close price of March 2nd, which is 4 trading days later. I used 4 trading days because, well, that's how many days we have seen since May 25th so far. I've applied this same method to all other T+21 dates and plotted their respective boxes. This is a visual to show you the behavior of the price following T+21 and T+21/T+35 cycles, and the differences between the two.
|
||||
|
||||
You'll notice how on the T+21 days between February 24th and May 25th (red callouts), that the price was anchored around the same closing price of T+21 and not much upward pressure was applied. Meanwhile, the T+21/T+35 cycles (purple callouts) have had breakaways from these prices and are gaining much more momentum. The prices following T+21/T+35 have more support and are doing that beautiful bull-flag pattern that TA apes love. Further supporting that we're in a potential runup to a gamma squeeze in the near future.
|
||||
|
||||
[Can't stop. Won't stop](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HgzGwKwLmgM). GameStop.
|
||||
|
||||
The similarities of the price movement so far are quite hype, because this is on top of the resurgence of the gamma squeeze indicators.
|
||||
|
||||
With all of the DTC, ICC, and OCC auction and wind-down plans being in effect as well as the other items I identified in Section 1.... man. It seems too good to be true right now.
|
||||
|
||||
For fun, I plotted in blue ("10 bars, Nd") the gamma ramp timeframes in Figure 2. Check out when the next parabolic move like March 10th could occur. June, frickin' 9th. Sound familiar? Shareholder meeting? It's probably just coincidence, but damn. Good timing. Also haha 6/9. Nice.
|
||||
|
||||
Further possible support is this post by the amazing ape [/u/isnisse](https://www.reddit.com/u/isnisse/). They have identified that a [breakout could be coming on June 10th](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/np3cyg/the_tables_will_turn/). They've used a really clever approach to guesstimate the breakout. Definitely take a look! Confirmation bias overloaded once I saw this.
|
||||
|
||||
One last thing to note before moving on is the number of consecutive green close days that have followed May 25th. We have not seen that before, where there's a ton of support following T+21 or T+21/T+35, even back for the February 24th cycle.
|
||||
|
||||
Are shorties losing their grip? One metric I was watching for the longest time was Deep ITM CALL purchases, which could also signal that their DOOOM is near.
|
||||
|
||||
3\. The Death of Deep ITM CALLs?
|
||||
|
||||
In my [previous post](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nc1lny/ive_estimated_the_current_si_based_on_the_si/), I was thinking that these Deep ITM CALLs were being used to satisfy FTDs. Now I'm not entirely sure - it could be used for that purpose, certainly. But it could simply be that they were used to delay the FTDs rather than satisfying them as people were predicting for the longest time. If that is the case, then the shorties are most likely losing their grip, as shown by the increase of volumes in meme stocks across the board. The <insert offensive word> is about to hit the fan.
|
||||
|
||||
I'm grabbing this figure from [/u/broccaaa](https://www.reddit.com/u/broccaaa/)'s post [The Naked Shorting Scam](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/mvdgf5/the_naked_shorting_scam_in_numbers_ai_detection/) which compares Deep ITM CALL Volumes to FTDs:
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/c490umhwqq271.png?width=1907&format=png&auto=webp&s=93f449a5150c398e9a88e857a937677e239fae70)
|
||||
|
||||
Figure 3: Deep ITM CALL Volumes Vs FTDs; From /u/broccaaa
|
||||
|
||||
When FTDs skyrocket, Deep ITM CALLs are eaten up. You see this occur extensively in January due to the mini-squeeze that occurred from massive FOMO of retail around the world. And then a resurgence of these Deep ITM CALL anomalies in the February 24th to March 10th runup due to more FTDs appearing.
|
||||
|
||||
Ever since March 10th, these Deep ITM CALL purchases have slowly decayed and died off. User [/u/Dan_Bren](https://www.reddit.com/u/Dan_Bren/) had been posting about these anomalies for weeks, and weeks, until suddenly - the anomalies stopped. The only significant purchases that have been made since the Deep ITM CALLs died off have been for Deep OTM CALLs and Deep ITM PUTs.
|
||||
|
||||
- [Deep OTM CALLs were purchased](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nafcuh/a_couple_deep_itm_puts_and_lots_of_otm_calls_were/). Possibly a big entity expecting the price to pop by July 16th.
|
||||
|
||||
- Deep ITM PUTs were purchased as well (same link). [We got a warning that they could be used to flash crash the price on May 28th](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nmxze3/flash_crash_warning_4000_618_300_puts_bought_last/), and sure enough, it happened.
|
||||
|
||||
So what does this mean? The give-up on Deep ITM CALLs could be many things.
|
||||
|
||||
Perhaps there's no more liquidity to use them?
|
||||
|
||||
Maybe they came up with a better way to delay FTDs?
|
||||
|
||||
It could be too expensive and they can't delay FTDs any more?
|
||||
|
||||
Maybe, by some weird reason, DTC-005 is actually in effect and blocking this practice - which makes the FTDs come to fruition these next few weeks?
|
||||
|
||||
The resurgence in meme stocks across the board makes it look like they're losing their grip and its simply too expensive for them to delay it any more. The volume, in my eyes, is not shorts covering but the volume is due to the FTDs beginning to pour out into the world.
|
||||
|
||||
The peddling of AMC could be that is their last and only option. To divide and conquer. Their best chance now is to try to pull GME apes into AMC because, despite it being shorted heavily as well, it is a much higher float and lower price. Therefore it would be easier to contain and take control of. They have to try to push AMC because all their other efforts failed. That being said, when GME goes off, AMC, KOSS, and other meme stocks will most likely squeeze as well. But - GME is the backbone, and only as long as GME remains strong will every stock experience a squeeze.
|
||||
|
||||
The latest T+21/T+35 cycle is prepping a gamma squeeze, just like what we saw from February 24th to March 10th. It's surprising how similar things are looking so far, especially in the price movement and support staying in the $260s as of after hours of June 1st.
|
||||
|
||||
It's even scarier that the gamma squeeze, if it happens, would start to go parabolic exactly on June 9th.
|
||||
|
||||
Ryan Cohen - did you know? DID YOU?
|
149
DD/2021-06-03-Who-Has-Been-Trading-GME-Every-Week.md
Normal file
149
DD/2021-06-03-Who-Has-Been-Trading-GME-Every-Week.md
Normal file
@ -0,0 +1,149 @@
|
||||
The FINRA Veil: Who's Been Trading GME Every Week (four months of data examined)
|
||||
================================================================================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/djk934](https://www.reddit.com/user/djk934/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nrr5e0/the_finra_veil_whos_been_trading_gme_every_week/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
|
||||
[DD 👨🔬](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22DD%20%F0%9F%91%A8%E2%80%8D%F0%9F%94%AC%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||
So [u/xpurplexamyx](https://www.reddit.com/u/xpurplexamyx/) pulled some FINRA data on June 2nd (<https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nr2gbi/hank_needs_you_part_ii_hank_the_data_shepherd/h0embxg/>) and I went digging into this for the data that was there for GME. It goes from the week of January 4th to April 26th. So unfortunately, it's a bit outdated, but that's what we have to work with. This is the OTC data.
|
||||
|
||||
TLDR We get to look at all the different groups potentially wrapped up in this mess. Spoiler alert, it is probably more major groups than you think.
|
||||
|
||||
I also have the Excel sheet of the FINRA data, and I think I got it working below to share it safely. Looking into some solutions for that - you can also copy the information from [u/xpurplexamyx](https://www.reddit.com/u/xpurplexamyx/)'s post into Notepad and import it into Excel fairly easily. [Google Sheets Link Here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vTDsp8OjIwT_1eEMH72AgXFGMZJBgCtS0cD80UJPDAcWafeWx_6Jbfx_jkduRiV1Kap24PSfrp2zVUu/pub?output=xlsx) (first time doing this but I believe it should safely share - it's an Excel file download)
|
||||
|
||||
TLDR DONE
|
||||
|
||||
I examined the data to review who traded the most GME each week and there were five consistent companies that consistently appeared in the top 5 for Total Weekly Share Quantity. Depending on the week they are in different orders.
|
||||
|
||||
- Citadel Securities LLC
|
||||
|
||||
- Virtu Americas LLC
|
||||
|
||||
- G1 Execution Services LLC
|
||||
|
||||
But that's only 3, you said there were 5. I did. Check out these images.
|
||||
|
||||
<https://imgur.com/SBUQPbe>
|
||||
|
||||
<https://imgur.com/6JufxgW>
|
||||
|
||||
<https://imgur.com/GnQP60P>
|
||||
|
||||
The other 2 groups DO NOT INCLUDE A NAME. Their Market Participant Name is BLANK. It is impossible to know 100% if this is only two separate groups but I would argue that since they consistently show up throughout the FINRA data we are looking at 2 mystery companies that are trading an absolute ton of GME every week OTC. One of these blank spots is ALWAYS the top spot, while the other seems to fluctuate between position 3 and 4.
|
||||
|
||||
These five positions (two blanks, Citadel Securities, Virtu Americas and G1 Execution Services) account for around a total of 82% of the trades carried out OTC. (thanks for [u/Gandos123](https://www.reddit.com/u/Gandos123/) for pointing this out!) Including these groups, there are around 33 regular participants. Which means the other 28 entities only carried out 18% of the OTC trades.
|
||||
|
||||
Edit - the blanks may be classifying other info - if you examine other tickers they add up to 50% of trades. But the numbers aren't that important for this post.
|
||||
|
||||
So who the fuck could these two blank groups be. I suspect this is also intentionally left blank, but why would it be left blank? Could be deliberate foul play? Could be a legitimate error? Could be a FINRA regulation?
|
||||
|
||||
So I went looking on FINRA's website to see if there was a rule about this. Turns out there is. If a firm lacks a market participant ID (MPID for short), then the field is intentionally left blank. (for more on these check out <https://www.finra.org/filing-reporting/market-transparency-reporting/trade-reporting-faq> under Section 104 and <https://www.finra.org/filing-reporting/regm-user-guide>) The firm could also break the rules and not report their MPID if they wanted for a small fine (ugh). The full MPID list can be found <https://otce.finra.org/otce/mp-list>.
|
||||
|
||||
The full list of participants trading GME *ON A WEEKLY BASIS* in the FINRA report from January 4 to April 30 is listed here. There were a few other small fry that showed up, but not for many shares or more than a week or two.
|
||||
|
||||
- BIDS BIDS ATS -- likely belongs to BIDS Trading L.P. (they have multiple MPID's but BIDS is one of them)
|
||||
|
||||
- Citadel Securities LLC (multiple MPID's but IEQY is one of them)
|
||||
|
||||
- CODA CODA -- likely belongs to Coda Markets Inc. (they have multiple MPID's but CODA is one of them)
|
||||
|
||||
- Comhar Capital Markets, LLC (their MPID is YKNA)
|
||||
|
||||
- CROS CROSSFINDER -- likely Credit Suisse Securities (their MPID is CROS)
|
||||
|
||||
- DBAX SuperX ATS -- likely Deutsche Bank Securities (they have multiple MPID's but DBAX is one of them)
|
||||
|
||||
- De Minimis Firms (THERE IS NO MPID HERE, small firms that do less that 200 trades per day get grouped up together as De Minimis Firms <https://www.sec.gov/rules/sro/finra/2019/34-86315.pdf> )
|
||||
|
||||
- EBXL LEVEL ATS -- likely EBX LLC (their MPID is EBXL)
|
||||
|
||||
- G1 Execution Services, LLC (multiple MPID's but ETMM is one of them)
|
||||
|
||||
- IATS IBKR ATS -- likely Interactive Brokers LLC (their MPID is IATS)
|
||||
|
||||
- ICBX CBX-- likely Instinet, LLC (they have multiple MPID's but ICBX is one of them)
|
||||
|
||||
- INCR Intelligent Cross LLC -- Intelligent Cross LLC
|
||||
|
||||
- ITGP Posit -- likely ITG INC. (they have multiple MPID's but ITGP is one of them)
|
||||
|
||||
- Jane Street Capital LLC (multiple MPID's, JSJX is one)
|
||||
|
||||
- JPBX JPB-X -- likely J.P. Morgan Securities (they have multiple MPID's but JPBX is one of them)
|
||||
|
||||
- JPMX JPM-X - likely J.P. Morgan Securities (they have multiple MPID's but JPMX is one of them)
|
||||
|
||||
- KCGM Virtu Matchit ATS -- likely Virtu Americas LLC (they have multiple MPID's but KCGM is one of them)
|
||||
|
||||
- LATS The Barclays ATS -- Barclays Capital Inc. (they have multiple MPID's but LATS is one of them)
|
||||
|
||||
- MLIX Instinct X -- likely Merrill Lynch, Pierce, Fenner, and Smith Incorporated (they have multiple MPID's but MLIX is one of them)
|
||||
|
||||
- MSPL MS Pool (ATS-4) -- likely Morgan Stanley and Co. LLC (they have multiple MPID's but MSPL is one of them)
|
||||
|
||||
- MSRP MS RPool (ATS-6) -- likely Morgan Stanley and Co. LLC (they have multiple MPID's but MSRP is one of them)
|
||||
|
||||
- MSTX MS Trajectory Cross (ATS-1) -- likely Morgan Stanley and Co. LLC (they have multiple MPID's but MSTX is one of them)
|
||||
|
||||
- National Financial Services LLC (their MPID is XSTM)
|
||||
|
||||
- Robinhood Securities, LLC -- likely Robinhood Financial, LLC (multiple MPID's but HOOD is one of them)
|
||||
|
||||
- XSTN CrossStream -- likely National Financial Services LLC (their MPID is XSTM)
|
||||
|
||||
- SGMT SIGMA X2 -- likely Goldman Sachs and Co. LLC (they have multiple MPID's but SGMT is one of them)
|
||||
|
||||
- Stockpile Investments Inc. (their MPID is STKP)
|
||||
|
||||
- Two Sigma Securities, LLC (multiple MPID's but OHOS is one of them) *** UBS Securities LLC** (multiple MPID's but UBSS is one of them)
|
||||
|
||||
- UBSA UBS ATS -- likely UBS Securities LLC (they have multiple MPID's but UBSA is one of them)
|
||||
|
||||
- USTK Ustocktrade Securities (multiple MPID's but USTK is one of them)
|
||||
|
||||
- Virtu Americas LLC (multiple MPID's but VALR is one of them)
|
||||
|
||||
- Wolverine Securities, LLC (their MPID is WSEA)
|
||||
|
||||
So there's the list of companies that have sent info to FINRA about their OTC trading. But we still have our missing companies right. Did you catch it? One of the major hedge funds involved in this entire mess is not listed here.
|
||||
|
||||
Melvin Capital is not on the list. Given their central role in all of this, I would suggest they are potentially one of our BLANK parties. Given that Citadel had to publicly send them some funds, my guess is they are player numero uno EVERY SINGLE WEEK here. They are probably holding some HEAVY BAGS. Since they had an MPID, I suspect it's deliberate we do not see them here. (MLVN and MSMM are the MPID's for Melvin Securities LLC)
|
||||
|
||||
The other group I am unsure of. I've looked through Bloomberg posts from these dates and can't find a huge amount of institutional changes. There are a few groups I have in mind, but no real data to back this up.
|
||||
|
||||
EDIT ADDITION If you examine other tickers than GME, the blank spaces are accounting for around 50% of the trades. Do the blanks mean something else entirely? Maybe buy or sell side of trades with the listed firms? The data is pretty shitty in terms of numbers, but I don't think this changes the DD I am posting here. The numbers aren't really the focus of the DD anyways, but the list of potential involved parties. END ADDITION
|
||||
|
||||
I know apes have looked heavily at Citadel and Melvin and their activities surrounding all of this, but I think it is time we spent some more time on some of these other groups that have been juggling GME around in OTC pools for a four month period as the largest stock fraud that's ever occurred played out.
|
||||
|
||||
Though more recent data is not available, it's likely many of these groups are still stuck juggling weekly, perhaps more digging into them might yield some additional info.
|
||||
|
||||
How well can we trust the exact numbers here? I'm not sure, *especially with the House of Cards revelations that some of these groups hold FINRA's investments*, but I think we can trust that the groups trading are correct as they don't like to waste money in fines if they don't need too.
|
||||
|
||||
EDIT: So I forgot that Melvin applied for confidential treatment of some positions, then got denied for Q1. Then they reapplied for Q2 to hide their positions again (which went through), but will likely be denied again in a bit. I suspect it's even more likely that they are the top blank.
|
||||
|
||||
A lot of people have commented Point72 as the third group - great idea - I skimmed the MPID list and didn't see them on there, so that may be correct as groups without an MPID can be listed as blank.
|
||||
|
||||
Also, I've seen a lot of comments that Susquehanna isn't here - G1 Execution Services is a subsidiary of Susquehanna. Credit to [u/Emergency-Monk-7002](https://www.reddit.com/u/Emergency-Monk-7002/) for the link.
|
||||
|
||||
Final point of this edit, I didn't put this in the post originally but have received a few messages about Bank of America - they are a subsidiary of Merrill Lynch I believe (BOFA is one of Merrill's MPID's) and Merrill Lynch is on the list.
|
||||
|
||||
EDIT 2: An Excel File Link is now available. I believe it should share safely/anonymously now. [Link](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vTDsp8OjIwT_1eEMH72AgXFGMZJBgCtS0cD80UJPDAcWafeWx_6Jbfx_jkduRiV1Kap24PSfrp2zVUu/pub?output=xlsx). If you click this it will download the Excel file.
|
||||
|
||||
EDIT 3: Someone asked who FINRA was and I put it in a comment. But at this point they might as well be the Financial Institution Not Regulating Anything.
|
||||
|
||||
EDIT 4: Added a small note about how concentrated these OTC trades are in the top 5 entities.
|
||||
|
||||
EDIT 5: To any mods who see this while I'm asleep, there might be a discrepancy in the numbers on this which I'm not sure what to make of after discovering it. Since after chugging through way more numbers ON OTHER TICKERS THAN GME in the Finra data, the blanks are accounting for exactly 50% of the data on each ticker. It is possible that the blanks could be accounting for the buy or sell side and the other listed groups are the opposite side of those trades, however this is poorly labelled and tough to decide which it is since it's the Market Participant Name that's blank and there is no label for whether it's a buy or sell. Whether the blank groups at the top is an entity or some odd tally/subtotal of trades, it isn't exactly clear from what's here.
|
||||
|
||||
Regardless, I don't think it changes the point of the DD post here as I did indicate I wasn't super confident in FINRA's numbers originally since reading House of Cards. FINRA does have rules that names can be redacted/not included, firms could omit them, etc.
|
||||
|
||||
Most importantly, the main point of this post is that the groups listed here have been participating in OTC trades for over 4 months from January to the end of April and the data shows it. It's fairly likely they are tangled up in this mess one way or another. We should continue to expand who we are looking into.
|
||||
|
||||
Cheers all!
|
||||
|
||||
🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀
|
127
DD/2021-06-04-A-Look-Back-at-What-Michael-Burry-Knew.md
Normal file
127
DD/2021-06-04-A-Look-Back-at-What-Michael-Burry-Knew.md
Normal file
@ -0,0 +1,127 @@
|
||||
A Look Back at What Michael Burry Knew
|
||||
======================================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/Pop-Tart_Rabies_Monk](https://www.reddit.com/user/Pop-Tart_Rabies_Monk/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nsmbnk/a_look_back_at_what_michael_burry_knew/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
|
||||
[DD 👨🔬](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22DD%20%F0%9F%91%A8%E2%80%8D%F0%9F%94%AC%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||
APES. It has been a very good week. Don't let anyone try to tell you otherwise. Barely a week ago we were fighting for $180, now we have rock solid support at $245-250. It is all spelled out in black and white (green and red?) on the month-long chart: we are winning this battle.
|
||||
|
||||
I don't know about you but it has been quite a journey to get to this far. Lots of twists and turns and emotions. Even though we are not finished by a long shot, I thought this weekend might be a good time to step back and take stock of where we have been, to get a clearer view of where we are going. So, tonight I am going to peel back the layers to a tweet by Michael Burry from back in the beginning of the GME craziness. The seeds of the ending are right there in the beginning, if you look in the right place. So grab your Friday evening beverage of choice, and lets do some looking together, shall we?
|
||||
|
||||
Michael Burry
|
||||
|
||||
I like to think of Michael Burry as the original GME ape. Now, I say that of course with all due respect to our boy DFV, whom I have grown surprisingly fond of for a dude I haven't met, and whom I would love to buy a beer when this is all said and done (DFV, in the incredibly unlikely event you are reading these musings of a smooth brain, hiya bud 👋 cheers 🍻 to seeing you back on twitter this week, you cool cat). DFV actually testified in his testimony to Congress back in February that it was (in part) Michael Burry's public interest in GameStop that triggered him to take a deeper look. And if you take a look at Burry's letter to the GME board in August 2019, he makes many of the same points that DFV and even Ryan Cohen have brought up at different points (for example: new console cycle leading to stronger earnings in late 2020-early 2021; massively over-shorted stock that the Board of Directors can and should do something about; and that GameStop at the time was squandering a golden opportunity to develop a new business model based on e-commerce - Burry specifically mentions Twitch and GameSparks being bought by Amazon as missed opportunities - and that if they learned their lesson and made some key changes there was a chance for a big turnaround).
|
||||
|
||||
We all know what happened from there. DFV invested in GME starting in June 2019. He and the WSB retards had some fun with it during the pandemic. A lot of people made fun of him and then deleted their accounts like a month later out of shame. Lol. In late 2020, Ryan Cohen wrote his letter to the board and things got weird. GME had a lil' mini squeeze in January, during which Burry sold his GME position for serious profit (sidenote: Burry did NOT paperhands. As manager of a fund, he has a fiduciary responsibility to his investors. He can't sit around waiting for a short squeeze. If you seriously question the diamond hands on that silverback, watch The Big Short again. You must not have paid attention. My man HODL'd in the face of so much stress leading up to 2008 that he almost needed part of his intestine removed. Oh, and if you haven't seen The Big Short... 😑... we'll talk more about that in a moment).
|
||||
|
||||
Even though Burry closed his GME position in January, he didn't just stop talking about it. Not by a long shot.
|
||||
|
||||
"Building You Staircases and Knocking Castles Down"
|
||||
|
||||
Read this tweet. No, seriously, go ahead. I'll wait.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/r9cnzt4sdc371.png?width=960&format=png&auto=webp&s=b2e08f32a36128bf71dc67a2a538ae9a6c0fb276)
|
||||
|
||||
🤑🤯
|
||||
|
||||
I think about this tweet almost every day. To fully appreciate the impact it had on me, the best I can do is to put you back to where we were and how we felt that day. It was tweeted at market close on Thursday, February 4th (the twitter timestamp says February 5th - this screencap is not my own, but I assume the person who took it was not in a U.S. time zone given the time and the commands being written in Swedish). The January mini squeeze happened the week before and we ended that Friday at $325. Pretty good considering we had just seen the worst market manipulation in multiple lifetimes. But then the following Monday, Feb. 1st, GME fell precipitously. It dropped $100 on Monday. Tuesday was worse, down about $150. Pretty dark times for GME. I myself had just YOLO'd my savings into GME the day after Robinhood shut down trading, and was a lurker on WSB at the time. But that first week of February there were times where I was tempted to wonder if I had unwittingly stumbled into an echo chamber of cultists. WSB was filled to the brim with trolls calling people bagholders. Even among the true apes in WSB at the time, the general sentiment was some version of "I'm with you to the end... but I would be lying if I said I'm not nervous."
|
||||
|
||||
And then Michael Burry tweeted this.
|
||||
|
||||
I first saw it on the evening of Friday Feb. 5th -- a snowy, cold, and dark winter evening where I live. Someone on WSB posted it, just as I was settling in to watch The Big Short for the first time. Apes, I wish I could put into words the level of mind-blown I experienced when I realized a few minutes into the movie that the dude Christian Bale was playing in that movie was the same dude that, earlier that very same day, tweeted about big money building us staircases via GME. I literally had to put the movie on pause for 10 minutes, reread the tweet, and then paced around my apartment with my mouth open, all the while turning these words over and over in my mind:
|
||||
|
||||
"building you staircases and knocking castles down... building you staircases and knocking castles down."
|
||||
|
||||
HO. LY. 💩
|
||||
|
||||
At the time of course, we knew there was big money involved in GME -- but not necessarily on the long side. We had thought (or, more accurately, the media had portrayed) that it was a few million retail traders vs. Wall Street. But Burry clearly knew otherwise and, in his usual obscure tweet style, danced around the subject *just* *close enough* to throw your mind into a tizzy.
|
||||
|
||||
So the stock Burry compares GME to is a biotech stock. I won't mention it by name, because it isn't important to me right now, except for how it impacts GME (although, granted, it is on my short-list for stocks to invest in with MOASS tendies, for one big reason I will get into below). Instead I will refer to it simply as [biotech].
|
||||
|
||||
Let's take a look at the price chart, 6-month view, with the cursor over the day in question.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/1qckf0u8mc371.png?width=3077&format=png&auto=webp&s=e187d04240a23db89f56276ff81b9c9ebdbef7e4)
|
||||
|
||||
[Biotech] 6-month
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/dg7pjzdbmc371.png?width=3081&format=png&auto=webp&s=d646c2265393ad3dfbdd930cbfb4f39ecfd82d2b)
|
||||
|
||||
GME 6-month
|
||||
|
||||
Now, when you look at [biotech], you might see the big spike and think it looks just like GME or the movie theater stock. We all could probably recognize the GME 6-month chart instinctually at this point, without any numbers or labels. But look closer. The big spike you see on [biotech] occurs on February 2nd and 3rd. GME had already more or less finished its freefall from $483 to $40 when [biotech] was spiking. So why did [biotech] do almost +300% in two days?
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/7nub2o3mic371.png?width=3793&format=png&auto=webp&s=fc1b63c3e20f4b699cf43264e28d59eef92c76c9)
|
||||
|
||||
Interim Analysis Results
|
||||
|
||||
This is why. They announced on February 2nd they have a drug that is a gamechanger in Alzheimer's treatment. As someone who lost a grandmother to Alzheimer's and remembers how disturbing it was, I consider this borderline miraculous. The interim results of this drug show 98% efficacy and improvements in behavior, cognition, and memory. Yup, that would certainly account for the price tripling in 48 hours.
|
||||
|
||||
But it doesn't explain why it would then get cut in half over the next 48 hours. As we have seen with GME, price action on good news can last for months. Look up the price action on any of the companies that have produced COVID vaccines for even better examples. So why did [biotech] have a meme-like spike?
|
||||
|
||||
#BigMoney
|
||||
|
||||
Let's look at something else. One of the first things I tend to look into on a new stock is who has skin in the game. So here we go. [Biotech] institutional ownership.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/ncqoqesvlc371.png?width=1848&format=png&auto=webp&s=b4ee1f928c026481095c5cb17a9c69b8d3237c30)
|
||||
|
||||
[Biotech] Institutional Ownership
|
||||
|
||||
Did you see it?
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/j9nha0l3mc371.jpg?width=1848&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=8de0087e483dd8d597da5c4889175cd3512e3c13)
|
||||
|
||||
🤔
|
||||
|
||||
Hmmmm...
|
||||
|
||||
So BlackRock, our mythical GME long whale, is also the largest institutional holder of [biotech]. Interesting. But that's not all. Susquehanna International is also in the top 10 of SAVA , a noted GME shortie (some would even put them in the top 3 with Citadel and Melvin). Pretty sus if u ask me. Insert [FuturamaSquintyEyes.gif.]
|
||||
|
||||
And yep, sure enough, there's our boy Kenny (sidenote: I will never insult the real "Let's have some Sax" Kenny G by calling Ken Griffin that. Nope. Won't do it! As he said himself, "there's only one Kenny G, and it ain't you!!")
|
||||
|
||||
BlackRock owns 2,404,922 million shares, or about 6% of the company. I am comfortable saying that is a long position. By my count there are only three other institutional holders that have more than half a million shares.
|
||||
|
||||
Susquehanna owns 367,827 shares. They also own calls and puts. I don't have the paid version of Fintel so I can't see exactly the ratio of calls to puts. They might be long, they might be short.
|
||||
|
||||
But Kenny boy on the other hand... according to everything I have found, Citadel is only net long on like 6 stocks, and they are all big tech and "blue-chip" stocks (Microsoft, Amazon, Netflix, Facebook, VISA, possibly NVIDIA and AMD,). So if Citadel has a position in [biotech], you better believe it is as a hedge against a net short position.
|
||||
|
||||
Let's go back to February 4th. On that day, both GME and [biotech] actually started to find support after their respective freefalls - GME in the $40-$50 range, as we all remember. My (not necessarily chronological) step-by-step explanation for what led up to the events of this day are as follows:
|
||||
|
||||
1. Citadel (and possibly Susquehanna) shorted both GME and [biotech].
|
||||
|
||||
2. BlackRock went long on both GME and [biotech].
|
||||
|
||||
3. GME spiked as retail trading, media coverage, and FTDs spilling out converged perfectly to slaughter 🌈🐻
|
||||
|
||||
4. A couple of days later, [biotech] spiked on the news of the interim results of their Alzheimer's treatment.
|
||||
|
||||
5. Citadel didn't like that. So they shorted [biotech] back down to size as much as possible (smh).
|
||||
|
||||
6. On February 4th, BlackRock stepped in and said "enough is enough," and provided support for both GME and [biotech]. They ultimately stabilized.
|
||||
|
||||
So you see, the day Michael Burry tweeted this, February 4th, was really a perfect storm - a glitch in the simulation - that tipped Michael Burry off to something going on under the hood. Two financial behemoths - BlackRock on one side, Citadel on the other - dueling over stocks in *completely different sectors,* after they had spiked within days of each other, for *completely different reasons*. BlackRock, our GME long whale, apparently won that day, as they managed to stabilize the prices of both stocks well above their initial price before their spike. And, if you look at the months since then on the 6-month chart, I think it is clear who is winning still.
|
||||
|
||||
My main takeaways from this exercise:
|
||||
|
||||
1. I cannot possibly fathom how someone as smart as our boy Kenny would think that a short position on almost every stock in existence is a viable financial strategy. Well, actually, that's not entirely true. I have an idea why he might, but it is a reason that is equal parts sad and degenerate. Maybe the subject for a future DD.
|
||||
|
||||
2. Every time I or any one of you beautiful apes pulls on a loose string in the GME situation, somehow it always seems to lead back to BlackRock.
|
||||
|
||||
3. Put yourself in Burry's shoes for a moment. If you were as smart as him, manager of a hedge fund, who had been investigated by the SEC and the FBI multiple times due to 2008, had just made serious money off of GameStop in the January runup, and you still knew GME was going to squeeze, what would you do? Would you say or do anything about it? Because I wouldn't. In fact, I probably would close my position (at least my public position) as soon as possible to show I have no "skin in the game" for fear of being investigated again for market manipulation. And then I would probably find a sneaky and indirect way on social media to tip people off that it is still going to squeeze. Like tweeting about staircases being built and castles being knocked down. HODL.
|
||||
|
||||
4. When I first started this I was seriously hoping to learn some stuff from Burry. Now that I have finished, I am just left with a headache and wondering how anyone could ever have that many wrinkles. Wut.
|
||||
|
||||
TADR: Michael Burry smart ape. Silverback. Looooooots and lots of wrinkles. He said GME go brrrrrr 🚀🚀🚀 even when it looked darkest.
|
||||
|
||||
HODL my beautiful fellow apes.
|
||||
|
||||
If you made it to the end, good job monke. Here, have a banana 🍌
|
||||
|
||||
Not financial advice. I literally can't tell my own rear end from a coconut FYI.
|
||||
|
||||
P.S. There are plenty more tweets and things that Burry has said and done that could be looked at under the microscope. I am doing this mostly as an exercise for myself to try and learn at the feet of a master. If this kind of thing interests enough apes I could do more of them going forward.
|
157
DD/2021-06-04-Complete-Bank-of-America-Gamestop-DD.md
Normal file
157
DD/2021-06-04-Complete-Bank-of-America-Gamestop-DD.md
Normal file
@ -0,0 +1,157 @@
|
||||
The Complete Bank of America Gamestop DD
|
||||
========================================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/gfountyyc](https://www.reddit.com/user/gfountyyc/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nsioql/the_complete_bank_of_america_gamestop_dd/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
|
||||
[DD 👨🔬](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22DD%20%F0%9F%91%A8%E2%80%8D%F0%9F%94%AC%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||
TL/DR It's possible that Bank of America is holding the biggest bag in the Gamestop saga
|
||||
|
||||
Note: This is just a theory, and I am not advocating anyone to do anything with their BofA accounts. Just some information I found and felt an obligation to share. I am not a financial advisor.
|
||||
|
||||
> If you owe the bank $100 that's your problem. If you owe the bank $100 ~~million~~ billion, that's the bank's problem. -*J.Paul Getty*
|
||||
|
||||
Good afternoon Apes of the world. For the past couple of weeks, I've been digging into reports, and news articles looking for evidence to connect Bank of America to the naked shorting situation and to postulate who may be holding the bag at the end of this saga.
|
||||
|
||||
Now I'm still new to building DD's and if I am incorrect please forgive me and I will try my best to fix this article. If anyone has additional information to refute or support my claims they are welcome as it's the best way to find the truth. I would also like to thank [u/Alert_Piano341](https://www.reddit.com/u/Alert_Piano341/) for their considerable help and hours of research. I won't even touch that their building is always lit up on weekends/holidays (Veterans day...really guys) and that they were one of the trading platforms that restricted trading in January.
|
||||
|
||||
Hypothesis: Bank of America is the biggest bagholder in the Gamestop saga.
|
||||
|
||||
Supporting Evidence:
|
||||
|
||||
The 15 Billion Dollar bank bond.
|
||||
|
||||
On April 16th Bank of America issued a $15 Billion dollar bond. Now given they had an extremely strong quarter, why would BofA need the additional collateral?
|
||||
|
||||
<https://www.marketwatch.com/story/bank-of-america-tops-charts-with-15-billion-bond-deal-the-biggest-ever-from-a-bank-11618606409>
|
||||
|
||||
BAC needed that 15B bond for insurance
|
||||
|
||||
<https://www.foxbusiness.com/business-leaders/bank-of-america-expects-to-increase-dividend-share-buybacks-ceo-moynihan>
|
||||
|
||||
watch this video at the 1:30 mark..... "assuming we get through the stress test...." he catches himself and is like I HAVE TO BE SUPER CONFIDANT HERE.
|
||||
|
||||
I can't find one other article or media post about the liquidity test anywhere, and here is the CEO mentioning it in an Interview....it was on his mind.
|
||||
|
||||
The Citadel Link
|
||||
|
||||
So the MM has a special exemption that allows them to Naked short the securities for the sake of market liquidity and they classify them as "Securities sold but not yet purchased" labilities. Market Makers have been fined for naked shorting before but nothing has been done to really curb it and the fact that we have two companies with expanding balance sheets show it's being abused right now.
|
||||
|
||||
Citadel specializes in Option naked shorting, and because of GME they have an ever-expanding bag of SHit. There "securities Sold but not yet purchased" went up to 57.506 B this year with 32.386B of it in Options. To recap Abbot told us the liabilities are valued at fair value, and that this will be an issue for citadel in the future. I think it is going to be an issue for someone else as well.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/81qoys0o3c371.png?width=1849&format=png&auto=webp&s=59f520ffac6c99438bdc71bea8828f316bbe5dae)
|
||||
|
||||
Citadels Liabilities
|
||||
|
||||
Notes from the financial statement for Sussqhana and Citadel
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/tlwr054q3c371.png?width=1795&format=png&auto=webp&s=00e5f2da6bc822929f8ba9256bced17c3f073183)
|
||||
|
||||
Susqhannas note makes it perfectly clear that the assist and liability are just on paper, the clearing broker can just sell their shit when needed
|
||||
|
||||
Let's check what Citadel says about its Prime Broker ---->
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/jo04yu7s3c371.png?width=924&format=png&auto=webp&s=c73e6bf6450d7cf5da415329d838cffc5fb8d463)
|
||||
|
||||
Who is holding Citadel's bag of shit?
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/cs6ttvrt3c371.png?width=444&format=png&auto=webp&s=ba2786ba9188af17b17ecb9ca7a48db6f9d7aacb)
|
||||
|
||||
T his is also found in Citadels 2020 Annual Finacial report "A substantial portion of Citadels' options clearing and Financing activities are with BAML"
|
||||
|
||||
BAML (which stands for BANK OF AMERICA MERRIL LYNCH) or now BAC is the prime and clearing broker for 96.69% of all the net derivative assets of Citadel Securities? They are holding the 57.6 Billion Bag on Citadel Poo... 32,386 Billion of it in options, with a ton of those, are going to explode in their face or be worthless.
|
||||
|
||||
Something to consider...
|
||||
|
||||
Virtue Capital annual report
|
||||
|
||||
<https://sec.report/Document/0001592386-21-000005/>
|
||||
|
||||
They could note that their payment for order FLOW more than doubled in 2020 with the rise of RH .....
|
||||
|
||||
what do you think about Citadel's Payment for order flow (Virtue is a publicly traded company so we have their expense data you will not find it for citadel) but Virtue and citadel are competitors. this article says Virtue does 9.4% while citadel does 13.4% of the market in December of 2020. so if Virtue is paying 758M for order flow in 2020 Citadel is paying at least a 1B.
|
||||
|
||||
<https://outline.com/SxAFCy>
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/zxiwz08z3c371.png?width=2061&format=png&auto=webp&s=893e2be704b6a4ccf04812be93199ea49c72f9a8)
|
||||
|
||||
Virtue Capital payment for order flow
|
||||
|
||||
then they could look at Citadel's debt (most MM don't take on debt ....because they print money, they are not supposed to have the liabilities citadels has and they may have a simple line of credit but Citadel got a direct cash infusion last year. They sell options they don't own yet (with the expectation they won't have to purchase most of them)......shit
|
||||
|
||||
The Loan
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/dewwxy034c371.png?width=944&format=png&auto=webp&s=d6775a98870a2faae62e4f22b0200f5ef367127b)
|
||||
|
||||
They issued a 1.653 billion loan to Citadel, when they also recently raised the 15 Billion for their bond. SMH
|
||||
|
||||
The New Hire?
|
||||
|
||||
A key piece of information that I came across that I thought might support our thesis was the recent hiring of Executive David Kim. David Kim was the head of equity client solutions at Bank of America and was recently hired by Citadel Securities (link below). Now, this is speculative, lets say there's a new hire named Mavid Jim, would it be possible that Jim has signed off on some terrible credit/increased risk, and jumped ship on some hidden backdoor deal?
|
||||
|
||||
<https://www.efinancialcareers-canada.com/news/2021/04/david-kim-bank-of-america-citadel>
|
||||
|
||||
Look for the usual suspect
|
||||
|
||||
I speculate that Bank of America also contributed heavily to the naked short selling of the so-called meme stocks (most likely Gamestop GME and Bed Bath and Beyond BBBY, as they are the stocks their analysts mentioned). In an article as recent as 2018 its been documented that BofA has paid the most fines out of all the major players since the 2008 financial crisis. It would appear that the rules simply don't matter to them.
|
||||
|
||||
<https://www.marketwatch.com/story/banks-have-been-fined-a-staggering-243-billion-since-the-financial-crisis-2018-02-20>
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/eedc9nl84c371.png?width=730&format=png&auto=webp&s=9fed4fc37fe0cb5698b3f139fc883b03d1a0ba21)
|
||||
|
||||
The 13F Filings
|
||||
|
||||
In recent 13F filings on whalewisdom you can see that Bank of America does hold decent-sized Put positions on GME and AMC. As holding these put positions are a legal loophole way of holding a short position and resetting an FTD, I believe it's possible that they also took short positions against these meme stocks. As both organizations would benefit from colluding an aggressively short position, they could drive the price down and both mutually profit.
|
||||
|
||||
<https://whalewisdom.com/filer/bank-of-america-corp-de#tabform4_tab_link>
|
||||
|
||||
The recent Bank of America Q10 Quarterly report
|
||||
|
||||
I decided to do some digging and when I was looking through the cashflows on their most recent quarterly report a figure under trading and assets/liabilities I found this gem.
|
||||
|
||||
The net change in cash from derivative assets/liabilities from 2020 to 2021 was a womping deficit of $53.756 Billion or a difference of $83 Billion from the prior year. That's just what is reported. I tend to believe that it's probably worse than that.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/jcvzlpcm4c371.png?width=1151&format=png&auto=webp&s=09ab13adba7b697d552f7f95ff86da2b7495ecd7)
|
||||
|
||||
Page 47 on their recent Q-10
|
||||
|
||||
<https://investor.bankofamerica.com/regulatory-and-other-filings/all-sec-filings/content/0000070858-21-000063/0000070858-21-000063.pdf>
|
||||
|
||||
The Bullshit Push for Silver
|
||||
|
||||
Who else thought it was total bullshit when the media spewed out that Reddit was into Silver, and that it was the new Gamestop? Who on earth would benefit from crowds of people moving to purchase silver? Honestly if/when Gamestop moons everything is Gold Plated. Silver is shit.
|
||||
|
||||
<https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/silver-stocks-surge-1.5895790>
|
||||
|
||||
<https://www.northernminer.com/fast-news/bank-of-america-sees-further-upside-potential-for-silver-in-2021/1003825311/>
|
||||
|
||||
The Roaring Kitty
|
||||
|
||||
It seems that our beloved Roaring Kitty knows something is up with Bank of America as well. In his recent Twitter post, he shows a scene from Baby Driver (A great film, check it out). It would appear there has been a Gamestop logo inserted just above a Bank of America ATM. Interesting stuff.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/f50ifldw4c371.png?width=900&format=png&auto=webp&s=53bf109cb1cffed95cffd3907d1a1a25e8c94da5)
|
||||
|
||||
Bank of America ATM and the GME logo
|
||||
|
||||
The closed locations:
|
||||
|
||||
Currently, hundreds of Bank of America locations across the United States are currently closed. It was definitely sus. To my understanding, some of these locations were being boarded up due to the trial of George Floyd (RIP). This was very strange as some of these banks were being boarded up after the verdict of the trial, and it appeared no riots would happen. I understand that with the shift to mobile/online banking there is less need for physical locations, but does that facilitate about 1/5th of all locations been temporarily closed (I did a sample of several states and came across 1/5th. I wasn't about to spend a day checking all 4600 locations but I welcome someone else with more time on their hands to take a look).
|
||||
|
||||
Bank of America Analyst Shitting On GME
|
||||
|
||||
"GameStop missed EBITDA estimates, which was a big negative for Bank of America analyst Curtis Nagle. The analyst, which rates the stock at Underperform with a price target of $10, said the company missed EBITDA estimates by 66%"
|
||||
|
||||
"This is not a good quarter," Chukumba said. "I will be listening to how they're going to pull a rabbit out of the hat and turn this into a viable company."
|
||||
|
||||
Chukumba said [GameStop](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zSoA7T-XCKg&t=39s) needed "some magic beans and pixie dust" to help the company going forward. He dropped coverage of the stock in January.
|
||||
|
||||
<https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/21/03/20322372/gamestop-analysts-react-to-q4-earnings-company-needs-some-magic-beans-and-pixie-dus>
|
||||
|
||||
Conclusion: Based on all the evidence provided above, I asked the question, who else could be the biggest big holder at the end of all this? If Archegos is a much smaller hedge fund and contributed to 10+ Billion dollars in losses to Credit Suesse, then I speculate that the losses from the margin calling of Citadel and Susquehanna could be magnitudes larger. If you also consider the short selling of securities from BofA itself, it is entirely possible for 100+ Billion dollars in losses. Let me know what you think. Again big shout out to [u/alert_piano341](https://www.reddit.com/u/alert_piano341/) for their help/contributions.
|
||||
|
||||
Note: If someone could get me some Bloomberg shots for a few of the major banks that would be great! Ideally BofA, JPM, GS please and thanks.
|
@ -0,0 +1,276 @@
|
||||
Yes, those patterns y'all keep posting are real! The similarity in meme stock price movement is statistically significant and differs significantly from a control group of boomer stocks (answer to u/HomeDepotHank69).
|
||||
========================================================================================================================================================================================================================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/squirrel_of_fortune](https://www.reddit.com/user/squirrel_of_fortune/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/ns8dhk/yes_those_patterns_yall_keep_posting_are_real_the/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
|
||||
[DD 👨🔬](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22DD%20%F0%9F%91%A8%E2%80%8D%F0%9F%94%AC%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||
So, this post is in response to [u/HomeDepotHank69](https://www.reddit.com/u/HomeDepotHank69/) 's request for DD into correlation between stock price movements.
|
||||
|
||||
TL/DR:
|
||||
|
||||
1. Two different scientific methods showing that there is similarity and correlation between certain meme stocks and that this increased since Jan.
|
||||
|
||||
2. A machine learning method asked to put stonk data into clusters based on their patterns over the last half year put the meme stonks GME, AMC, KOSS, and others together regardless of which bit of price data you choose to look at. Look at the pictures!
|
||||
|
||||
3. Before Jan 2020, meme stocks (as a group) were not particularly correlated with each other, after Jan they were very well correlated with each other. (In fact before Jan AMC and GME were negatively correlated, after Jan they were very closely correlated).
|
||||
|
||||
4. On average, a control basket of boomer stocks have not changed in their correlation to each other. The basket of meme stonks have changed (after Jan 2021) to become highly correlated with each other (to a high statistical significance).
|
||||
|
||||
Pearson R2 (r-squared) is a quick n dirty way to do the comparison between stonks, so I also wanted to put the data into an ML algorithm that would look for clusters in it, and see if that algorithm, knowing nothing about the situation other than the stock price and volume info, would group the stocks the same way we might by eye.
|
||||
|
||||
Question 1: Would a machine learning algorithm cluster the stocks into meme and boomer? As in, what general patterns exist in these stock movements?
|
||||
|
||||
Question 2: Are meme stocks significantly correlated with each other? Are they correlated more than a control set of boomer stocks?
|
||||
|
||||
Bag of meme stocks as suggested by [u/HomeDepotHank69](https://www.reddit.com/u/HomeDepotHank69/): GME, AMC, KOSS, NAKD, NOKK, BBBY, VIX
|
||||
|
||||
Control bag of boomer stocks: AMZN, CVS, GSK, RDS-B, WEN, GM, IBM. These were selected semi-randomly to try and come from different areas of the economy. And I added Wendy's just cos. And I think I picked general motors randomly, but maybe I was primed by GME's ticker.
|
||||
|
||||
See picture below: normalising the daily high price to the highest price over the year to date, boomer stocks are dotted lines, meme stocks solid lines, they look different to me.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/glxb4bjuk9371.png?width=815&format=png&auto=webp&s=c3260c91c53b7919792481bd61364514a87c72fb)
|
||||
|
||||
This is the high price, after normalisation to the higher price seen in the last year to date. I don't wanna lead you apes, but I would say that the boomer stocks (dashed) look different to the meme stocks (non-dashed). But that is not scientific enough!
|
||||
|
||||
Next picture: after the normalisation described in the methods section below to remove the general background movement of the stock market. I did not expect KOSS to be that similar. Maybe Hank did. The numbers in this plot are large due to the normalisation, but we don't care about the exact numbers we care about the patterns here. This graph shows us that GME and its friends are doing something really fucking odd this year to date!
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/g85bn2a6l9371.png?width=832&format=png&auto=webp&s=84af213daa4b5c9857416b8691766e128f283a2b)
|
||||
|
||||
Normalised as described to remove the NASDAC background
|
||||
|
||||
Question 1. Are meme stocks similar to each other? Would they be clustered together?
|
||||
|
||||
We get very similar results for the 5 dimensions of the data (high price, low price, open price, close price , adjusted close price and volume). Low and high prices results showed the largest effect. The algorithm doesn't have a great time clustering over the entire time period, but we see something interesting when we split the data into June-Dec 2020 (before) and Jan-June 2021. I think low price is the most interesting so I will use this as an example. All the data from here on is the Low price of the day, although similar things were seen with the other prices.
|
||||
|
||||
How to 'read' these pictures, the grey lines are the stocks over the time period, the red line is what the algorithm thinks is the middle of this cluster of stocks (sort of like a corrected average). The data is normalised for the algorithm, so the y axis is a relative price, the days are days since the start of the time period (6 june 2020 (before) or 1st Jan 2021 (after)).
|
||||
|
||||
Before (in 2020):
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/hfgwsop9m9371.png?width=539&format=png&auto=webp&s=2bd45d3443dcd41e46fbd395ee4a4b2aee8dfeac)
|
||||
|
||||
Stonks behaving normally. Note AMC and GME are in different clusters. Cluster 1 is stocks that go down, cluster 2 is stocks that go up. This is for the June 2020 to Dec 2020
|
||||
|
||||
The best answer is 2 clusters:
|
||||
|
||||
Cluster 1: ['AMC', 'NAKD', 'NOKK', 'VIX', 'CVS', 'GSK', 'RDS', 'WEN', 'IBM']
|
||||
|
||||
Cluster 2: ['GME', 'KOSS', 'BBBY', 'AMZN', 'GM']
|
||||
|
||||
After (2021):
|
||||
|
||||
The two measures gave the best answer 2 clusters and four clusters.
|
||||
|
||||
The two cluster answer:
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/05djchs4n9371.png?width=539&format=png&auto=webp&s=fcc287bcdf9b010c49df232ecaa990412e486c58)
|
||||
|
||||
Meme stonks in cluster 1, boomer stocks in cluster 2, roughly. (y axis is mislabelled sorry, these are low prices). This is Jan 2021-June 2021
|
||||
|
||||
*2 clusters (best on one measure)*
|
||||
|
||||
Cluster 1: ['GME', 'AMC', 'KOSS', 'NAKD', 'BBBY', 'GM']
|
||||
|
||||
Cluster 2: ['NOKK', 'VIX', 'AMZN', 'CVS', 'GSK', 'RDS', WEN, IBM]
|
||||
|
||||
The 4 cluster answer
|
||||
|
||||
*4 clusters (best on another measure)*
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/o1jdl6vcn9371.png?width=802&format=png&auto=webp&s=720b780ca6a28d6db78c354b6f3eff8c9fc59ad3)
|
||||
|
||||
Cluster 1. Some meme stocks and GM, peak around Jan, cluster 4, GME and AMC, doing their squeeze thing? Cluster 2 and 3, normal stocks doing normal things. (Again mislabelled y axis, sorry, is defo low prices). Jan 2021- June 2021
|
||||
|
||||
Cluster 1: ['KOSS', 'NAKD', 'BBBY', 'GM']
|
||||
|
||||
Cluster 2: ['VIX', 'AMZN', 'GSK', 'RDS']
|
||||
|
||||
Cluster 3: ['NOKK', 'CVS', 'WEN', 'IBM']
|
||||
|
||||
Cluster 4: ['GME', 'AMC']
|
||||
|
||||
I got the same general pattern on the high price as well. AMC GME KOSS BBBY tend to be clustered together.
|
||||
|
||||
Look at cluster 4's graph, isn't it pretty? And after the normalisation and all that shit (removing market background), we see that GME and AMC are higher than they were in Jan. Maybe they got a way to run?
|
||||
|
||||
Conclusion 1:
|
||||
|
||||
There is something similar in the meme stock price movement that causes the algorithm to put them together and this is seen across the 5 data dimensions (high price, low price etc). Looking at the four cluster answer, we see there are two different meme stock behaviors, the Jan price increase then settle for KOSS NAKD BBBY and GM (GM is following GME possibly cos of fat fingers, see later), whilst our meme stonks AMC and GME are increasing from Jan til now...
|
||||
|
||||
Question 2.
|
||||
|
||||
Is there a statistically significant correlation between the price action of meme stocks?
|
||||
|
||||
Significance: how this works:
|
||||
|
||||
The Pearson R2 measure (R2, should be R2 but I don't know how to superscript) is a measure of how correlated the stocks are. An R2 of +1 means an exact positive correlation (e.g. $GME goes up when $MEH goes up), an R2 of -1 means an exact negative correlation ($GME goes down when $MEH goes up), and R2 of 0 means no correlation (i.e. the two stonks are unrelated). It's not the best method to do this comparison, but it's the one we got!
|
||||
|
||||
The p value is a measure of significance, if it is over 0.05 then the results are considered not statistically significant at all. The smaller the p value is, the more significant. (In more statistical language, a small p value relates to a small chance that the result seen is due to random fluctuations and not a relationship between the stonks). A p value under 0.0001 is highly significant. Where I've put p << 0.0001 I saw some TINY numbers, like a p values in the 1x10^{-20} region. You need to have significant results for your results to mean anything. (Any stats geeks in da house? Yes, we could discuss the difference between statistical significance and scientific significance, here, but we didn't. soz).
|
||||
|
||||
If we have a large R2 there is a correlation, if it is backed up by a small p number it is a significant correlation and therefore we believe it is not a spurious correlation (i.e. bullshit).
|
||||
|
||||
We use IBM as our archetypal boomer stock as no one ever got fired for buying IBM!
|
||||
|
||||
OK so looking at GME's price movement against other stonks before 2021:
|
||||
|
||||
Looking at the R2 on low and high prices BEFORE (June - Dec 2020):
|
||||
|
||||
MEME to MEME
|
||||
|
||||
GME to AMC : R2 = -0.73, p ~<<0.0001 (Negative CORRELATION! Very significant) (p value is 1X10^(-25)!)
|
||||
|
||||
GME to KOSS : R2 = 0.55 , p <<0.0001 (middling correlation, Very significant)
|
||||
|
||||
MEME to Boomer
|
||||
|
||||
GME to IBM : R2 = -0.7, p << 0.0001 (neg correlation, very significant)
|
||||
|
||||
BOOMER to BOOMER
|
||||
|
||||
IBM to GSK -- R2 = 0.94, p << 0.0001 (high correlation, highly significant
|
||||
|
||||
Fat fingered test
|
||||
|
||||
GME-GM -- R2 = 0.79. p << 0.0001 (high correlation, highly significant)
|
||||
|
||||
Looking at the R2 on low and high prices AFTER (Jan-Jun 2021):
|
||||
|
||||
MEME to MEME
|
||||
|
||||
GME to AMC : R2 = 0.83, p << 0.0001 (positive CORRELATION! Significant)
|
||||
|
||||
GME to KOSS : R2 = 0.77 , p << 0.0001 (positive CORRELATION, very significant)
|
||||
|
||||
MEME to Boomer
|
||||
|
||||
GME to IBM : R2 = 0.47, p << 0.0001 (positive CORRELATION, significant)
|
||||
|
||||
BOOMER to BOOMER
|
||||
|
||||
IBM to GSK : R2 = 0.62, p << 0.0001 (mid correlation, highly significant
|
||||
|
||||
Fat fingered test
|
||||
|
||||
GME to GM : R2 = 0.72. p << 0.0001 (high correlation, highly significant)
|
||||
|
||||
With a p value of p << 0.0001, GME is correlated with AMC (before and after, although switches direction), KOSS (before and after), NOKK (after), BBBY (before and after).
|
||||
|
||||
*Fat fingers*: Humorously, there is a correlation between GME and GM, obviously people are buying the wrong ticker, so I guess my 'random' choice of GM was actually not that random, as I made the same mistake! N.B. GME-GM's correlation is the outlier in the boomer stock basket, but I left it in anyway.
|
||||
|
||||
So what have we found?
|
||||
|
||||
After January the meme stocks (GME, AMC, KOSS, BBBY) became positively correlated if they weren't and the positive correlation increased. So these stocks started to move together and only GME and KOSS were moving together before. The IBM-GSK comparison shows two different boomer stocks from the control group, they come from different industries (GSK was affected more by covid than IBM) and we see a standard sort of movement, they're both positively correlated and generally following the wider economy.
|
||||
|
||||
And here's the data for all (average used is the median, error is standard error, 42 pairwise comparisons).
|
||||
|
||||
Average R2 of meme stock before : -0.42 (+/- 0.09)
|
||||
|
||||
Average R2 of meme stock after : 0.32 (+/- 0.05)
|
||||
|
||||
Average R2 of boomer stock before : 0.34 (+/- 0.08)
|
||||
|
||||
Average R2 of boomer stock after : 0.25 (+/- 0.05)
|
||||
|
||||
Difference in meme stocks: + 0.74, this is a huge change.
|
||||
|
||||
Difference in boomer stocks: -0.11, this is small, (but is it actually significantly different from no change?)
|
||||
|
||||
So from this and the graphs we can see before both boomer stocks were on average not particularly correlated with each other. On average, meme stocks were weakly anti-correlated. But after, meme stocks on average move to be more positively correlated.
|
||||
|
||||
Another hypothesis test! Yay! My favourite thing!
|
||||
|
||||
Are these populations significantly different? i.e. is the change of the r2 of these stonks before and after significant. (geek note, we use the mann whitney u test here, and I used the Hedges effect size test (thought you'd like that!)).
|
||||
|
||||
For the meme stocks:
|
||||
|
||||
Yes! The correlation after is GREATER with a p-value of 0.0079 (so statistically significant) and an effect size of 0.7 (a medium sized effect). So the average change in correlation between the meme stocks is a (statistically) significant increase.
|
||||
|
||||
For the boomer stocks:
|
||||
|
||||
No! The correlation after is LESS with a p-value of 0.54 (so NOT statistically significant) and an effect size of 0.1 (no real effect). So no real correlation either way, I,e, the relationship between the boomer stocks hasn't changed over the last year to date (cos the change I found is small above enough that it could be random noise). So the average change in correlation between the boomer stocks is (statistically) insignificant.
|
||||
|
||||
So what's the point?
|
||||
|
||||
The meme stocks have become significantly more correlated since January, and our control basket of boomer stocks have not. I will not speculate as to why this is the case. Again, Hank asked on here for this information, so I presume he has an idea. At the very least, it is nice to know that the similarity in the price action that everyone keeps posting is statistically significant. I only looked at daily data (where do you get the 5 minute data?) and I expect that the GME AMC correlations on this timescale would be fun to look at, and perhaps something of a smoking gun.
|
||||
|
||||
Final point, correlation does not imply causation. Although I've not made any comments as to why these correlations exist. All we've got here is two different scientific methods showing that there is similarity and correlation between certain meme stocks and that this increased since Jan.
|
||||
|
||||
The end unless you want to know the details:
|
||||
|
||||
Methods:
|
||||
|
||||
*Data pre-processing:*
|
||||
|
||||
We want to look at the patterns in the data and relative change rather than overall price movement, so we normalise the data to try and compare the datasets.
|
||||
|
||||
Data was taken a year to date from yesterday (6/3) and all stocks were normalised to the first day, so that the first day normalised prices was 100. The NASDEC ($IXIC) was also normalised the same way to the same day. To remove the background effect of the stock market's general movements, each dataseries was then divided by the normalised IXIC (day for day), and then renormalized back to 100 at the start of the data. The numbers get huge for GME due to it's huge price movement.
|
||||
|
||||
*Time horizon:*
|
||||
|
||||
The data for the whole year to date was compared but more interesting results were seen if we split the data into pre and post January 1st. Data was daily price data, including, high, low, open, close, adjusted close and volume).
|
||||
|
||||
*Correlation tests:*
|
||||
|
||||
After normalisation, datasets were tested for how correlated they were using the Pearson R2 measure and corresponding p-value using SKlearn.
|
||||
|
||||
*Clustering!*
|
||||
|
||||
We want to find similar patterns in the stock movements without assuming a. that we would see exact changes at the exact same time point and b, that the changes will be the same size. We cope with assumption a by using dynamic time warping distance metric (and b was the reason we did some of that normalisation). We use a machine learning clustering algorithm that can work with time-series data and compare the stonks using this dynamic time warping stuff. We test from 1 cluster up to 7 clusters using standard methods to determine which cluster is the best (inertia+elbow method and silhouette score), then we look at the clusters and see which stocks were put where.
|
||||
|
||||
(see <https://github.com/tslearn-team/tslearn> <https://towardsdatascience.com/how-to-apply-k-means-clustering-to-time-series-data-28d04a8f7da3>)
|
||||
|
||||
We do all this with each of the data dimensions (i.e. high, low, open, close, adjusted close and volume) and also with ALL OF THEM. And get pretty much the same results, btw, only LOW data is covered in this write up.
|
||||
|
||||
Appendix:
|
||||
|
||||
Comparing GME, AMC\
|
||||
Before: Pearson r: -0.73 and p-value: 1.1e-25\
|
||||
After: Pearson r: 0.83 and p-value: 7.6e-27
|
||||
|
||||
Comparing GME, KOSS\
|
||||
Before: Pearson r: 0.55 and p-value: 2.8e-13\
|
||||
After: Pearson r: 0.77 and p-value: 1.1e-21
|
||||
|
||||
Comparing GME, NAKD\
|
||||
Before: Pearson r: -0.68 and p-value: 3.2e-21\
|
||||
After: Pearson r: 0.043 and p-value: 0.66
|
||||
|
||||
Comparing GME, NOKK\
|
||||
Before: Pearson r: -0.87 and p-value: 1e-47\
|
||||
After: Pearson r: 0.39 and p-value: 3.9e-05
|
||||
|
||||
Comparing GME, BBBY\
|
||||
Before: Pearson r: 0.8 and p-value: 1.9e-34\
|
||||
After: Pearson r: 0.53 and p-value: 7.3e-09
|
||||
|
||||
Comparing GME, VIX\
|
||||
Before: Pearson r: -0.42 and p-value: 1.5e-07\
|
||||
After: Pearson r: -0.3 and p-value: 0.0022
|
||||
|
||||
Comparing IBM, AMZN\
|
||||
Before r: 0.25 and p-value: 0.0024\
|
||||
After Pearson r: 0.15 and p-value: 0.12
|
||||
|
||||
Comparing IBM, CVS\
|
||||
Before r: 0.75 and p-value: 4.8e-28\
|
||||
After Pearson r: 0.83 and p-value: 6.9e-28\
|
||||
Comparing IBM, GSK\
|
||||
Before r: 0.94 and p-value: 5.8e-72\
|
||||
After Pearson r: 0.62 and p-value: 2.4e-12\
|
||||
Comparing IBM, RDS\
|
||||
Before r: 0.64 and p-value: 3.1e-18\
|
||||
After Pearson r: 0.16 and p-value: 0.11\
|
||||
Comparing IBM, WEN\
|
||||
Before r: 0.82 and p-value: 1.2e-36\
|
||||
After Pearson r: 0.85 and p-value: 5.8e-30\
|
||||
Comparing IBM, GMBefore r: -0.6 and p-value: 9.9e-16\
|
||||
After Pearson r: 0.39 and p-value: 4.6e-05
|
||||
|
||||
If people want, I can run the code to do this for the whole set of measurables and write it out to a .csv file?
|
||||
|
||||
Final disclaimer: I know fuck all about finance, but I know about data science and stats! Yay stats!
|
412
DD/2021-06-05-A-Beginners-Guide-to-Hiding-100-Million-FTDs.md
Normal file
412
DD/2021-06-05-A-Beginners-Guide-to-Hiding-100-Million-FTDs.md
Normal file
@ -0,0 +1,412 @@
|
||||
WHERE ARE THE SHARES?? A Beginner's Guide to Hiding 100 Million FTDs - (FINAL)
|
||||
|
||||
==============================================================================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/leavemeanon](https://www.reddit.com/user/leavemeanon/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nsuf5l/where_are_the_shares_a_beginners_guide_to_hiding/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
|
||||
[DD 👨🔬](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22DD%20%F0%9F%91%A8%E2%80%8D%F0%9F%94%AC%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||
## TLDR:
|
||||
|
||||
The system is rigged in favor of HFT firms. Because computers are really good at finding derivatives for cheap to hedge sales for profit, naked short selling is no longer *part* of the system, it is the system, short term, over and over and over. What we're seeing might be the product, and possibly the unraveling - of that system.
|
||||
|
||||
Man that was melodramatic. Hey, I wouldn't believe me either, to be fair. I still really don't believe it.
|
||||
|
||||
//
|
||||
|
||||
Acronym Index and Glossary
|
||||
|
||||
*Because I wish the SEC would include these, for the Fed if nothing else...*
|
||||
|
||||
ETF - [Exchange-Traded-Fund](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/e/etf.asp) -
|
||||
|
||||
This is a more detailed explanation than the rest, because ETFs are *incredibly* important to understand.
|
||||
|
||||
An *Exchange-Traded-Fund* is a fund who's portfolio holdings is represented and traded on open exchanges via shares of the fund: ETF shares. Simply put, ETFs are hybrids between funds and stocks. They, like any fund, hold some portfolio of securities. And like any stock, they trade as shares on open exchanges. The fund's portfolio is typically designed to track some index or sector. Thus, an investor with some opinion about the ETF's portfolio can trade the ETF shares to eliminate some of the risks involved in trading single equities.
|
||||
|
||||
The *price* of ETF shares is determined at market value, based on their trading in the market - like any equity stock. The *value* of ETF shares is called their NAV, and when NAV differs from price (which is always true in some ETF, somewhere in the world), a profit opportunity exists via arbitrage (see [Chapter 1 for more](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nplv75/where_are_the_shares_a_beginners_guide_to_hiding/?utm_source=share&amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;utm_medium=ios_app&amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;utm_name=iossmf).
|
||||
|
||||
ETFs also provide a source of dynamic liquidity in the markets. This is because Authorized Participants (APs), acting as 'referees', oversee the markets and allocate supply to meet demand. APs are authorized to *create/redeem* ETF shares *with/for* representations of the ETF's portfolio. This mechanism is integral to liquidity provision, and helps align ETF share prices with their NAV.
|
||||
|
||||
The "creation/redemption" mechanism mentioned above is the bridge between *ETF shares*, "*liquidity*", and *particular securities*.
|
||||
|
||||
NAV - [Net-Asset-Value](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/n/nav.asp) An ETF's NAV is the value of the funds assets, minus liabilities. Functionally, for ETFs, the NAV is the value of the fund's portfolio, and because ETFs are only rebalanced a few times yearly, the *market price* of shares trading on open exchanges often differ from the NAV of those shares.
|
||||
|
||||
FTD - [Failure-to-Deliver](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/f/failuretodeliver.asp) - after the sale of a security, the seller (believe it or not) has 3 days to deliver the security to the buyer, otherwise the share is deemed failed-to-deliver - a FTD. FTDs should be rare, because they can build up and cause systemic issues, [as Patrick Byrne explains](https://youtu.be/I0WXg5T3cBE).
|
||||
|
||||
AP - [Authorized Participant](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/a/authorizedparticipant.asp) - "An authorized participant is an organization that has the right to create and redeem shares of an exchange traded fund (ETF)...." APs include Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, Bank of America, JPMorgan Chase, and Citadel Securities. [BlackRock describes](https://youtu.be/iX7fOx5G40A) APs as referees, monitoring markets to allocate demand to meet supply - resulting in better liquidity and decreased volatility.
|
||||
|
||||
MM - [Market Maker](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/m/marketmaker.asp) - Market Makers, very generally, oversee markets and quote bid/ask prices to create a spread. They stand ready to buy or sell in their market, and they have algorithms coded to hedge these transactions and profit from arbitrage along the way. The are similar to APs in that they both monitor markets and ensure trades have counter-parties, however, the MM acts as a primary source of the APs information - MMs quote bid/ask spreads, and APs react to these spreads (in real time). This allows the MM to have more direct access to (and influence over) bid/ask quotes in their particular markets, however they rely on the AP to provide market liquidity via ETF creation/redemption.
|
||||
|
||||
HFT - [High-Frequency Trading](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/h/high-frequency-trading.asp) - "High-frequency trading, also known as HFT, is a method of trading that uses powerful computer programs to transact a large number of orders in fractions of a second. It uses complex algorithms to analyze multiple markets and execute orders based on market conditions. High-frequency-trading is characterized by high turnover rates and order-to-trade ratios. Some of the best-known high-frequency trading firms include Tower Research, Citadel LLC and Virtu Financial." This is *how* MMs and APs profit from volume, HFT algorithms scan for arbitrage opportunities.
|
||||
|
||||
//
|
||||
|
||||
Preface
|
||||
|
||||
First of all and for the record, this ape loves his country 🇺🇸. I have no doubt that some apes love their's more, and I'd say that's awesome. I'd probable even say *c'est bonne* (and be rightfully mocked)
|
||||
|
||||
It's *because* I love my country, that I am concerned. Deeply.
|
||||
|
||||
And despite the fact that my *entire* understanding of the financial system is merely 6 months old and limited to what I can find online - there are much older, much wiser, and much warier opinions than mine. Tendies or not, I absolutely do not wish for disaster or advocate wishing for disaster. I hodl for the same reason I originally bought - I like the stock.
|
||||
|
||||
Secondly, I really don't advocate for *anything* except using your own brain, shiny or not, to come to your own conclusions. None of this, including my other posts/comments, is financial advice or intended to be defamatory in any way.
|
||||
|
||||
This series is essentially a brain-dump - resulting from my attempts to identify what the hell, *exactly*, has been going since January.
|
||||
|
||||
*Why listen to me?* - You shouldn't. Not at face value at least. I have no special insight nor expertise. I like logic and puzzles. That's all.
|
||||
|
||||
I may have gone wrong here, way way off even - I'm just not exactly sure how. *insert Michael Burry - 'Big Short' quote* So if you find holes to punch, *please*, punch away. We're all learning here. And frankly, in many ways, I'd love to be wrong on this.
|
||||
|
||||
//
|
||||
|
||||
Chapter 3: The Machine
|
||||
|
||||
Where we Stand
|
||||
|
||||
[Chapter One](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nplv75/where_are_the_shares_a_beginners_guide_to_hiding/?utm_source=share&amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;utm_medium=ios_app&amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;utm_name=iossmf) dove into ETFs, and the ever-growing role they play in market liquidity. In principal, the relationship between ETFs/underlying securities is like a hydraulics system. Securities have some of their supply distributed in various ETFs, and the buying pressures in these different markets are the pistons *squeezing* their respective market's liquid. As pressure (demand) builds in a given market, APs can dial pressure up in the ETF markets to force liquid wherever it's needed. *APs can only add pressure.* They cannot reduce buying pressure, except indirectly by providing supply.
|
||||
|
||||
This *pressure control* system is vial to keeping markets at bay and keeping ETFs aligned with their NAV. Overall, these are good things.
|
||||
|
||||
Chapter One explained the *mechanism* behind that *pressure control* system, and how APs profit from it through arbitrage: if there are price discrepancies between ETF shares and their underlying, APs are profiting on it.
|
||||
|
||||
[Chapter Two](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nrw9xi/where_are_the_shares_a_beginners_guide_to_hiding/?utm_source=share&amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;utm_medium=ios_app&amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;utm_name=iossmf) looked at options trading and its role in hedging. Both equites and options have Market Makers that hedge their sales with options, and I mentioned the fact that options create "synthetic positions" that mimic the returns of some other position. This creates yet another arbitrage opportunity, as price discrepancies in the synthetic positions and their *analogs* can be profitable.
|
||||
|
||||
A few apes mentioned in chapters [One](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nplv75/where_are_the_shares_a_beginners_guide_to_hiding/?utm_source=share&amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;utm_medium=ios_app&amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;utm_name=iossmf) and [Two](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nrw9xi/where_are_the_shares_a_beginners_guide_to_hiding/?utm_source=share&amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;utm_medium=ios_app&amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;utm_name=iossmf) that a certain... (*don't say je ne sais qoui, don't say je ne sais quoi*...) 'something' was missing. Like trying beer for the first time and it's flat. I'm sure others knew what I was hinting at, and I'm sorry if it felt like I was pandering. I'm going for *no ape left behind*, and I think the overall machine is far better understood in light of it's inner workings.
|
||||
|
||||
//
|
||||
|
||||
Je Ne Sais Quoi
|
||||
|
||||
Okay all five question words let's go -
|
||||
|
||||
*Who?*
|
||||
|
||||
Citadel, *en masse*: an Authorized Participant, Market Maker, Broker Dealer, Hedge Fund, and probably a dozen other things.
|
||||
|
||||
*What?*
|
||||
|
||||
Wallstreet's God. Naturally, they adopted the triumvirate of Father Fed, the many (some prodigal) Sons, and the Holy Ghost of Liquidity - always there in the background to fill your purchase orders. Yeah, Citadel accounts for close to half of that Liquid Holy Ghost.
|
||||
|
||||
*When?*
|
||||
|
||||
For the last 5 years at least, but particularly in January 2021, and *specifically* on January 27th. Ken stated in the [Congressional Hearing](https://youtu.be/lxdp-wU3UZI) that, "on Wednesday, January 27, we executed 7.4 billion shares for retail investors."
|
||||
|
||||
*Where?*
|
||||
|
||||
Primarily on RobinHood, I'd imagine. At first, at least. Then, a few nanoseconds later, processed through Citadel's network of black boxes to find a better price than you, then sell to you.
|
||||
|
||||
*How?*
|
||||
|
||||
THIS is why I started with the boring details.
|
||||
|
||||
I get to skip this part. Arbitrage is how. Via ETF, forced hedging, all those ways we went through
|
||||
|
||||
now for the coolest, most ignored question word
|
||||
|
||||
//
|
||||
|
||||
Why?
|
||||
|
||||
( With a splash of how? )
|
||||
|
||||
Arbitrage is great, but it has one major problem. It doesn't make very much money, *per trade*. You're only netting small differences, because these arbitrage trades *should* be for equal things. The only reason arbitrage works is because of inefficiencies in pricing. This is where arbitrage meets its best friend: High Frequency Trading.
|
||||
|
||||
[Investopedia](https://www.investopedia.com/articles/active-trading/092114/strategies-and-secrets-high-frequency-trading-hft-firms.asp) includes four types of arbitrage among the 6 listed money-making strategies, one of which is *volatility* arbitrage. I think Ken said it in the Congressional Hearing, but I'm not sure -
|
||||
|
||||
HFT firms make SIGNIFICANTLY more money in VOLATILE markets.
|
||||
|
||||
I mean I can't believe I have to point this out, someone must be saying something, but this creates a CLEAR CONFLICT OF INTEREST when the HFT firm is an Authorized Participant.
|
||||
|
||||
*Why?* because, APs CONTROL THE LIQUIDITY in the ETF market, and, indirectly, the markets of the underlying securities.
|
||||
|
||||
Maximum volatility = maximum profit per arbitrage trade = *$$$$$$$$* for HFT/AP firms
|
||||
|
||||
It's a simple move and I mean - just pick a couple of GME's ETFs and look at ownership since 2015, I'd guess it's up 500% on average, probably more. Whether this was natural (as underlying price decreased) or intentional, I don't know. *But*, if there happens to be both 1) more volume in the underlying than in the ETF and 2) underlying NAVs consistently dropping lower than ETF price, APs have an opportunity for massive profit.
|
||||
|
||||
So to earn that $200m bonus, you look for an ETF with *just* the right blend of wimpy and popular. Then have your trading firm buy ETF all day, or turn the AP's "gobble ETF shares" dial up a few notches, maybe tell your buddies how cool the fund is, anything you can to increase buying in the ETF. AP is *required* to siphon supply from the underlying to meet the ETF demand.
|
||||
|
||||
Easy. Done.
|
||||
|
||||
Over time, your own ETF buying increases the price of your own holdings. And these are *funds*, they're meant to be stable. And many of them are illiquid - so when ETF buyers show up, APs likely *need* to siphon underlying shares. All this *siphoning* makes the underlying more volatile, so when you're responsible for putting the shares back to meet demand, you can take your sweet time and suck as much money as possible from regular investors. Every millisecond counts.
|
||||
|
||||
And as long as you keep buying ETF, or convincing someone to buy ETF, after each ETF rebalancing, the ETF inflation will dictate that ETF price is higher than NAV, *forcing* you, as an AP, to buy underlying until they equate (then maybe you buy again). I think you can see how this quickly becomes a vicious cycle.
|
||||
|
||||
Do I sound crazy yet? Oh, *long time ago?* I know, I've felt crazy for weeks. I cannot prove that this happens, I can only say that the system exists such that it is possible, and very profitable. And frankly it's very likely that the cycle is a natural byproduct of increasing interest in ETFs. Whether or not it's intentional:
|
||||
|
||||
"ETFs have grown to $131.2 billion in assets under management by 2016, up from only $3.9 billion in 2007 representing a growth rate of 3300% over ten years."
|
||||
|
||||
That information is remarkably hard to find, but [this Harvard paper](https://scholar.harvard.edu/files/kevin_pan/files/etfarbunderliqmismatch.pdf) mentioned it.
|
||||
|
||||
Oh wait, lol no it's not hard to find - [Statista (not sure if reliable but looks legit)](https://www.statista.com/topics/2365/exchange-traded-funds/#:~:text=The%20assets%20under%20management%20%28AUM%29%20of%20global%20ETFs,5.6%20trillion%20U.S.%20dollars%20of%20the%20global%20total.) reported -
|
||||
|
||||
"he assets under management (AUM) of global ETFs increased from 417 billion U.S. dollars in 2005 to over 7.7 trillion U.S. dollars in 2020. The regional distribution of the AUM of ETFs was heavily skewed towards North America, which accounted for around 5.6 trillion U.S. dollars of the global total."
|
||||
|
||||
Holy Liquidity Mother of Fed, that is a f*cking ton money. 5.6 TRILLION DOLLARS worth of North American stocks trading instead in ETFs. *All that illiquidity, all that volatility...* see what I mean?
|
||||
|
||||
//
|
||||
|
||||
GameStop, The Machine, and The House of Cards
|
||||
|
||||
I took some Philosophy in college. Non-metaphorically, even. And if you've ever taken a Philosophy class, you've likely asked yourself why everyone in it thinks everything has to be an argument all the time.
|
||||
|
||||
Well, as I would for my apes, I'll stand up for my fellow philosophers by saying that sometimes - and *particularly* when you don't know what the hell you're talking about - the safest way to move forward is to:
|
||||
|
||||
First, break things down into facts, or get as close as possible.
|
||||
|
||||
(Descartes currently holds the record at one... though, naturally, it's disputed. Getting all the way to 0 earns you a clinical diagnosis, and trying to prove it earns you *at least* one more, and possibly a PhD)
|
||||
|
||||
Then, use logic, as best as you can, to propose *new facts* based on the old facts. They call these new facts 'conclusions', I think. Or 'heresy', maybe, depending.
|
||||
|
||||
The *goal* of an argument, formally, is to reach a valid conclusion. The *utility* of these conclusions is... something non-philosophers bother with.
|
||||
|
||||
Valid conclusions are reached by using facts and logic mathematically. If the facts are verifiable and the logic is sound, the conclusion is valid.
|
||||
|
||||
So why is everyone always arguing? Philosophers, a significant portion of college kids, and, ironically, HFT algorithms, *think* in the structure of argument.
|
||||
|
||||
Alright lets try one -
|
||||
|
||||
//
|
||||
|
||||
Facts
|
||||
|
||||
Quotes [directly from the SEC](https://www.sec.gov/investor/pubs/regsho.htm) :
|
||||
|
||||
"Short selling is used for many purposes, including to profit from an expected downward price movement, to provide liquidity in response to unanticipated buyer demand or to hedge the risk of a long position in the same security or a related security."
|
||||
|
||||
and how *should* this done?
|
||||
|
||||
"Typically, when you sell short, your brokerage firm loans you the stock. The stock you borrow comes from either the firm's own inventory, the margin account of other brokerage firm clients, or another lender."
|
||||
|
||||
and if, say, there are no shares to borrow anymore, where else can shares be found?
|
||||
|
||||
"In a "naked" short sale, the seller does not borrow or arrange to borrow the securities in time to make delivery to the buyer within the standard three-day settlement period. As a result, the seller fails to deliver securities to the buyer when delivery is due (known as a "failure to deliver" or "fail")."
|
||||
|
||||
and, um, *why* is that legal?
|
||||
|
||||
*(try not to read this in Ken G's voice from the first congressional GameStop hearing btw... If you don't remember how it sounded, its eerily similar to Michael Scott - but really nasal like Steve has a terrible cold, and choppy like he's short circuiting from the cognitive dissonance.)*
|
||||
|
||||
"There may be legitimate reasons for a failure to deliver. For example...delays can result from transferring securities in physical certificateobsolete ... A fail may also result from "naked" short selling. For example, market makers who sell short thinly traded, illiquid stock in response to customer demand may encounter difficulty in obtaining securities when the time for delivery arrives."
|
||||
|
||||
""Naked" short selling is not necessarily a violation of the federal securities laws or the Commission's rules. Indeed, in certain circumstances, "naked" short selling contributes to market liquidity. For example, broker-dealers that make a market in a security generally stand ready to buy and sell the security on a regular and continuous basis at a publicly quoted price, even when there are no other buyers or sellers. Thus, market makers must sell a security to a buyer even when there are temporary shortages of that security available in the market. This may occur, for example, if there is a sudden surge in buying interest in that security, or if few investors are selling the security at that time. Because it may take a market maker considerable time to purchase or arrange to borrow the security, a market maker engaged in bona fide market making, particularly in a fast-moving market, may need to sell the security short without having arranged to borrow shares. This is especially true for market makers in thinly traded, illiquid stocks as there may be few shares available to purchase or borrow at a given time. "
|
||||
|
||||
Speaking of the hearing, here's another fact: Ken stated in the Congressional Hearing that, "on Wednesday, January 27, we (Citadel) executed 7.4 billion shares on behalf of retail investors. To put this into perspective, on that day, Citadel Securities cleared more trades for retail investors than the entire average daily volume of the entire US equities market in 2019."
|
||||
|
||||
I shit you not, [at 24:35](https://youtu.be/lxdp-wU3UZI).
|
||||
|
||||
He also said, "During the frenzied period of retail trading, Citadel Securities was able to provide continuous liquidity every minute of every trading day. When others were unable... or willing to meet the demand, Citadel Securities was there. I could not be more proud of our team."
|
||||
|
||||
//
|
||||
|
||||
Logic
|
||||
|
||||
If demand for a particular security *rapidly* increases, the AP, or some AP, must provide (as I've quoted a few times now) liquidity to meet that demand, even though the demand was for a *particular security*.
|
||||
|
||||
If supply is lacking in a *particular security*, APs have a responsibility to provide it. Throughout January 2021 and *particularly* on the 27th, there was unprecedented volume -
|
||||
|
||||
whether this was shorts covering, regular retail trading, apes gobbling GME pacman style, some of which are among the thousands of high schoolers with pandemic stimulus money and almost nothing to spend it on except a free iPhone app that lets them buy cool stocks they saw online like a video game at zero commission -
|
||||
|
||||
all of that buying pressure - much of which was heavily skewed toward a few dozen securities, likely required unprecedented liquidity in those *particular securities.*
|
||||
|
||||
As beaten to death at this point, ETF redemption and hedging are ways of turning "liquidity" into *particular securities*.
|
||||
|
||||
To take full advantage of *both* of those, it helps to be an Authorized Participant *and* a Market Maker in the markets in question.
|
||||
|
||||
//
|
||||
|
||||
Facts, again, but with some logic too
|
||||
|
||||
Directly from [Citadel's Website](https://web.archive.org/web/20210428124834/https://www.citadelsecurities.com/products/equities-and-options/) -
|
||||
|
||||
"Citadel Securities is a leading market maker to the world's institutions and broker-dealer firms. Our automated equities platform trades approximately 26% of U.S. equities volume....We execute approximately 47% of all U.S.-listed retail volume, making us the industry's top wholesale market maker. Citadel Securities acts as a specialist or market maker in more than 3,000 U.S. listed-options names, representing 99% of traded volume, and ranks as a top liquidity provider on the major U.S. options exchanges."
|
||||
|
||||
Citadel is a Market Maker *and* an Authorized Participant - capable of capitalizing on liquidity provision *and* hedging responsibilities.
|
||||
|
||||
but.. how again, exactly? Like, cash to GME, what's in the middle?
|
||||
|
||||
Hedging is the easy part. Well easier to explain at least. 2 options:punintended 1) directly sell short and hedge with some long options position. 2) sell calls / buy puts (as MMs, they can influence these prices and choose which trades to take), and then sell the shares you were forced to hedge with
|
||||
|
||||
I'm not *entirely* sure #2 is legal but #1 most definitely is.
|
||||
|
||||
Directly selling short is the way to go, though, because you don't increase the buy pressure, whereas hedging would force you to buy then resell.
|
||||
|
||||
I really should say: "Directly selling short is the way to go because you get to force the price down, whereas hedging would allow the movement to remain natural."
|
||||
|
||||
I've been reading too much of this shit...
|
||||
|
||||
Anyway, there's another way to sell without buying, directly forcing the price down: Get the shares from an ETF:
|
||||
|
||||
From [BlackRock's iShares IWM prospectus](https://www.ishares.com/us/literature/prospectus/p-ishares-russell-2000-etf-3-31.pdf?stream=reg&amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;product=I-R2000&amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;shareClass=US+Class&amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;documentId=925868%7E926239%7E926348%7E925613%7E925577&amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;iframeUrlOverride=%2Fus%2Fliterature%2Fprospectus%2Fp-ishares-russell-2000-etf-3-31.pdf) -
|
||||
|
||||
"...the Fund sells and redeems its shares directly through transactions that are in-kind and/or for cash, subject to the conditions described below under Creations and Redemptions."
|
||||
|
||||
*to the fine print we go*
|
||||
|
||||
"A creation transaction, which is subject to acceptance by the Distributor of the Fund, generally takes place when an Authorized Participant deposits into the Fund a designated portfolio of securities, assets or other positions (a "creation basket"), and an amount of cash (including any cash representing the value of substituted securities, assets or other positions), if any, which together approximate the holdings of the Fund in exchange for a specified number of Creation Units."
|
||||
|
||||
So if I'm reading that right, [any pile of securities, short sales, derivates, or cash] = [ETF shares]...
|
||||
|
||||
And, of course, it works backward as well:
|
||||
|
||||
"Similarly, shares can be redeemed only in Creation Units, generally for a designated portfolio of securities, assets or other positions (a "redemption basket") held by the Fund and an amount of cash (including any portion of such securities for which cash may be substituted)."
|
||||
|
||||
So *actually* -
|
||||
|
||||
[any pile of securities, short sales, derivates, or cash] = [ETF shares] = [Underlying Shares]
|
||||
|
||||
Oh, and to reiterate from the first post:
|
||||
|
||||
"To the extent the Fund engages in in-kind transactions, the Fund intends to comply with the U.S. federal securities laws in accepting securities for deposit and satisfying redemptions with redemption securities by, among other means, assuring that any securities accepted for deposit and any securities used to satisfy redemption requests will be sold in transactions that would be exempt from registration under the Securities Act of 1933..."
|
||||
|
||||
So, naturally, they don't have to report these shares.
|
||||
|
||||
You should really skim through that IWM prospectus. Especially the 'Creation and Redemption' section.
|
||||
|
||||
And, obviously, no physical shares are being exchanged - it's all data. Specifically, the ETF issuer treats the deposits as "redemption credits", basically looking at the 'asset/cash' pile and saying - *can't tell if that's ETF or underlying, so we'll just say it's both*. So if the AP prefers the underlying (to meet demand there), ETF issuer returns so called ["redemption credits"](https://www.sec.gov/rules/sro/nscc/2017/34-82193.pdf) for the asset/cash deposit, and these trade just like real shares.
|
||||
|
||||
Why doesn't the ETF just use the shares it owns? Well maybe because redemption credits are written against taxes, but probably because the fund already lent all of its real shares. A couple times. Each. That's what they do.
|
||||
|
||||
and these "redemption credits" are used cumulatively for tax write-offs, so they are tracked somehow. Not reported of course, and there's a little blurb in the IWM prospectus that says something like "we've elected to not adopt an automated regulation system for the creation/redemption deposits..."
|
||||
|
||||
Oh wait, here it is -
|
||||
|
||||
"The Board has adopted a policy of not monitoring for frequent purchases and redemptions of Fund shares ("frequent trading") that appear to attempt to take advantage of a potential arbitrage opportunity presented by a lag between a change in the value of the Fund's portfolio securities after the close of the primary markets for the Fund's portfolio securities and the reflection of that change in the Fund's NAV ("market timing"), because the Fund sells and redeems its shares directly through transactions that are in-kind and/or for cash..."
|
||||
|
||||
Unbelievable.
|
||||
|
||||
so the only intermediaries between infinite derivative/cash deposits and infinite liquidity is 1) the algo's ability to find a synthetic that's cheaper than the shares (arbitrage) within 3 days (or 4 in 2018, or 6 in 2020, but really the max has always been 35 days...) and 2) blessing of the Distributor, BlackRock, who doesn't monitor this activity, and 3) the custodian's stamp of approval.
|
||||
|
||||
*Who* is that custodian, sweeping up garbage and reporting the load to BlackRock?
|
||||
|
||||
State Street.
|
||||
|
||||
Seriously. I felt like someone was just messing with me when I read all this.
|
||||
|
||||
(( The very *existence* of this mechanism depicts the chasm between Wall Street and the public. They would say it improves liquidity and decreases volatility. I would say it's potentially manipulative, potentially *deflationary* to underlying securities, and I'd argue that [it's actually major culprit in liquidity issues](https://scholar.harvard.edu/files/kevin_pan/files/etfarbunderliqmismatch.pdf). Which isn't so surprising since it's the very mechanism siphoning liquidity away in the first place. ))
|
||||
|
||||
//
|
||||
|
||||
GameStop, for real this time
|
||||
|
||||
So after *all that* - this next part, uh... this might be a little awkward, but.. back to those 7.4 billion shares Citadel executed for *retail investors alone* on a single freaking day. Do you remember the price increases of some *particular securities* that were sold?? Can you imagine filling all of those buy orders?
|
||||
|
||||
Probably not, and I don't know if Ken did, either. Remember, this is the system, or roughly half of it. This is where your trades go, and how the system is *designed* to react.
|
||||
|
||||
The *other* half would be the other APs. JP, GS, you know the crew. The ones that all reported ownership of GME's ETFs in the last few months.
|
||||
|
||||
Why is that relevant? Well, as GME buying pressure goes up, APs need ETF to redeem. So the buying pressure in ETFs goes up but *uh oh* - who's selling the ETF? Some of them are pretty illiquid to begin with, so which AP bites the bullet, and shorts the ETF?
|
||||
|
||||
That'd be the one that didn't report buying them. Because they can't. Citadel Securities LLC.
|
||||
|
||||
I'm probably just seeing things, but those 13F filings, to me, say *Wasn't me!* To me, they may as well be fingers pointing at Ken.
|
||||
|
||||
Now, I have absolutely no idea *why* Ken bit the bullet in January. It could be that the technology netting him half of retail's trades, possibly their risk profiles, and the capability of that technology to generate the liquidity provided to *literally* keep the system from collapsing - it is possible that their technology may have been uniquely capable of handling the demand.
|
||||
|
||||
It is also possible that all of the APs and Market Makers share pieces of the GME debt-*gâteau*.
|
||||
|
||||
I believe based on, well, the above and the work of [u/atobitt](https://www.reddit.com/u/atobitt/), Wes Christian and the like, that the true answer is some combination of those two and the following -
|
||||
|
||||
//
|
||||
|
||||
Guesses, as educated as I can make them
|
||||
|
||||
It is likely that GameStop has been aggressively sold short for many years - particularly since 2014. And as the ETF market grew from $100 billion to $5.6 Trillion in assets, I'd argue that ETF creation/redemption, intentionally or not, facilitated this process.
|
||||
|
||||
Remember the ETF gobble/profit cycle I mentioned earlier? Maybe, and this is just a guess, this is some part of the "distribution" BlackRock is referring to in IWM's prospectus -
|
||||
|
||||
"Because new shares may be created and issued on an ongoing basis, at any point during the life of the Fund a "distribution," as such term is used in the 1933 Act, may be occurring."
|
||||
|
||||
Well, that gobble/profit cycle would *love* for Hedge Funds and other firms to short sell GME, right? Price goes down, you get to make more ETF. It feeds directly into the cycle.
|
||||
|
||||
So, in my worthless opinion, I think there's a significant possibility that many firms were short GME for many years, then ETFs came along, allowing APs to get in on the action, then HFT came along and combined a targeted short attack with a arguably dodgy, yet profitable trading tool and "accidentally" created a massive ocean of rolling FTDs, ...
|
||||
|
||||
Yes that sounds crazy. But I'm not pulling that out of thin air. I remember even MarketWatch said GME had over 60 million shares short on January 15, and I went through like 10 ways to skirt reporting. Look at the ETF growth: $4 billion in 2007 to $7.7 trillion last year. That's over 192,000%. 15,000% a year on average.
|
||||
|
||||
Honestly, from everything I read, naked short selling is the primary route of HFT liquidity. That's terrifying because these are just computers programmed within certain parameters, but I think that's *why* naked short selling is the go-to: these things don't locate, it's far simpler and far faster to just sell now and use the 35 day settlement cycle to look for a cheaper long synthetic position to hedge with.
|
||||
|
||||
And when the delivery day comes, they do it again, and again, and again, because they're coded to look for profits, to *make money*, and I don't know if there's a parameter than accounts for all the shares sold, trading, and collateralized on the books with derivatives that build up over time as excess supply.
|
||||
|
||||
I could go on and on.. how spikes in GME FTD volume are perfectly in between those of its ETFs. How the spikes in options OI also line up perfectly. Or how creation baskets can even be "custom" and just theoretically be 50,000 GME's. It doesn't matter, the bottom line is - it's a mess.
|
||||
|
||||
*So why hasn't BlackRock laid the hammer? And who even gets the hammer?*
|
||||
|
||||
actually, I'll let BlackRock tell you,
|
||||
|
||||
"Close-Out Risk for Qualified Financial Contracts.
|
||||
|
||||
Regulations adopted by global prudential regulators that are now in effect require counterparties that are part of U.S. or foreign global systemically important banking organizations to include contractual restrictions on close-out and cross-default in agreements relating to qualified financial contracts."
|
||||
|
||||
note - "contractual restrictions", not "restrictive contracts"
|
||||
|
||||
they restricted from forcing the close-outs.
|
||||
|
||||
"Qualified financial contracts include agreements relating to swaps, currency forwards and other derivatives as well as repurchase agreements and securities lending agreements."
|
||||
|
||||
"The restrictions prevent the Fund from closing out a qualified financial contract during a specified time period..."
|
||||
|
||||
So they can't even touch the hammer. In favor of -
|
||||
|
||||
"Broker-dealers and other persons are cautioned that some activities on their part may, depending on the circumstances, result in their being deemed participants in a distribution in a manner that could render them statutory underwriters subject to the prospectus delivery and liability provisions of the 1933 Act."
|
||||
|
||||
So it's the *underwriters* that are *underwater*.
|
||||
|
||||
❤️
|
||||
|
||||
Oh and the buyers of that underwritten pile get the hammer too.
|
||||
|
||||
"Broker-dealers...that are part of an "unsold allotment"...would be unable to take advantage of the prospectus delivery exemption..."
|
||||
|
||||
//
|
||||
|
||||
If you're learning all of this for the first time, *shit*, honestly I can't imagine it. Like I said in the first post, it's taken me months to put all of this together - and I've felt crazier by the week. Maybe I'm missing something huge here, but 5.6 Trillion dollars is a lot of dollars, so this ETF thing seems kind of important. And really, I think I just needed to get it out of my brain and into words.
|
||||
|
||||
and make no mistake, there were 1 billion GME shares traded in the January run up. Idk if the original shorts were able to actually cover *anything*, but even if they *did* - those buy orders were filled with short sales all the way up, just like the system was coded to do.
|
||||
|
||||
Almost $500 billion in GME was sold in January. Of all the *concentrated*,*particular stocks* in January's madness - GME sold the highest dollar amount by $496 billion. Second was AMC, at $4b. AMC has since surpassed its January peak by over 350%. Just saying.
|
||||
|
||||
//
|
||||
|
||||
3 tiny little things before I go...
|
||||
|
||||
First, this overall explanation of the market does a great job of explaining similar price movements we see in multiple stocks. In the face of HFT algos naked short selling possibly *billions* of shares in a single day, we see multiple prices move along the FTD cycles.
|
||||
|
||||
First and a half, it also explains TSLA - the notoriously shorted, Meme Lord/Destroyer-of-Shorts owned recipient of a 800% run since 2020. TSLA traded over 6 billion shares in early 2020 between $70-$140. It proceeded to reach $800 the following year.
|
||||
|
||||
Second, it also connects the treasury markets - because as [u/atobitt](https://www.reddit.com/u/atobitt/) explained, the 10-20 year treasury bonds are the preferred collateral of the Repo Market, the largest and most liquid market on the planet (I think). AP buys (or otherwise obtains) treasury ETF shares, redeems them for bonds, and go to the Repo Market. *voila* cash to do everything I just described.
|
||||
|
||||
Second-and-a-half, Michael Burry shorted a 20 year treasury ETF for like 500mil I think. TLT.
|
||||
|
||||
Last thing - IWM rebalances every February, May, August, and November. If you look at GME toward the ends of months, price and volume tend to increase. Which is weird, since GME has been in increasing in price since last November.
|
||||
|
||||
While increasing, you'd expect the ETF to be redeemed for shares (ownership decreases), and if the price in February greater than in November (it was, $15 to $50, and $15 may have been what they were shooting for...), then the ETF should have to sell GME shares to maintain its proportions.
|
||||
|
||||
So why is GME's price going up while its ETFs are selling shares?
|
||||
|
||||
Dr. Burry, again, comes to mind. Remember when he sold in October, and it took his brokers weeks to find his shares? If an ETF needs to sell shares to maintain the portfolio, but previously lent all its shares, it needs to recall enough shares to meet the sale. And if the shares were borrowed and re-borrowed and re-borrowed, they'd need bought and rebought and rebought.
|
||||
|
||||
GME price, on average, has steadily increased since August. At the end of those months, GME price rapidly goes up further, despite ETF selling. GME went from ~$15-25 in November and then January happened. And the end of February happened.. and May..
|
||||
|
||||
//
|
||||
|
||||
So, all put together, it almost looks like the shorts tried to cover, failed, almost broke the system by doing it at the same time as everybody else, and now the system that was coded to prevent the MOASS, and was successful, is trying to release all that pressure into *fractions* of the volume that created it.
|
||||
|
||||
*There are the shares.*
|
||||
|
||||
Naked shorts and derivative collateral and cash covered ETF swaps, maybe buy-writes and married puts too - and when it comes time to cover just do it again, because it's cheaper that way.
|
||||
|
||||
And if you need *cash* to do all of this 10 times over to prevent the system from collapsing, formally known around here as the *delaying the MOASS*, maybe you buy treasury ETF for the bonds inside, probably derive some synthetic collateral too, and take the bonds to the Repo market.
|
||||
|
||||
Well wouldn't that just make the whole problem worse, now that all of January's volume is gone and the volume is dry?
|
||||
|
||||
*That, maybe, is the House of Cards.*
|
||||
|
||||
//
|
||||
|
||||
If you heard me out and still think it's too crazy, I don't blame you. Thank you for humoring my brain dump. And I hope I didn't offend my French apes, really Idk why I ran with that theme.
|
||||
|
||||
HODL 🚀🚀
|
@ -0,0 +1,33 @@
|
||||
$100MM of DEEP ITM GME CALLS have been purchased since 3/1(Monday)
|
||||
==================================================================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/Dan_Bren](https://www.reddit.com/user/Dan_Bren/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/comments/lx5kgk/100mm_of_deep_itm_gme_calls_have_been_purchased/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
|
||||
[DD](https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/search?q=flair_name%3A%22DD%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||
New Post is UP 3/9: <https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/comments/m1hejz/quick_update_additional_40_million_deep_itm_calls/>
|
||||
|
||||
UPDATE 3/4: 3:38pm 2,500 more calls purchased out of the PHLX exchange totaling 31.12 million
|
||||
|
||||
<https://imgur.com/a/zPNFMi9>
|
||||
|
||||
This brings the net to 131 million on the week and 12,000 calls
|
||||
|
||||
Good Afternoon my fellow tendiemen,
|
||||
|
||||
I bring fantastic news to all the bagholding crayon eaters on this sub. This post is an update to the original post by [u/tapakip](https://www.reddit.com/u/tapakip/).
|
||||
|
||||
(3/1) Monday someone out of the PHLX exchange (Philadelphia) purchased roughly $45MM worth of deep ITM calls ($12 and $15 strike) <https://imgur.com/a/8ZCd3b9> = 3415 calls
|
||||
|
||||
(3/2) Tuesday same exchange another $20 million in deep ITM calls <https://imgur.com/gallery/Qp2phEm> = 1800 calls
|
||||
|
||||
(3/3) Wednesday another massive purchase of deep ITM calls from PHLX $45 million expiring 4/16/21
|
||||
|
||||
<https://imgur.com/gallery/Z05Vqmg> = 4210 calls
|
||||
|
||||
In total here we are looking at a purchase of roughly 9425 calls from what we believe is the same buyer over the course of the last 3 days. Unfortunately I do not have access to the historical data to see if the same buyer had bought more previously. Regardless this gives the buyer the rights to buy 942,500 shares by April 16 (presuming these options expire ITM). This is just one of the many factors setting up a potential gamma squeeze.
|
@ -0,0 +1,63 @@
|
||||
UPDATE (3/4): $131 Million of DEEP ITM GME CALLS have been purchased since 3/1(Monday)
|
||||
======================================================================================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/Dan_Bren](https://www.reddit.com/user/Dan_Bren/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/comments/lxxaty/update_34_131_million_of_deep_itm_gme_calls_have/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
|
||||
[DD](https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/search?q=flair_name%3A%22DD%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||
Salutations Future 1% Apes,
|
||||
|
||||
NEW DD!
|
||||
|
||||
UPDATE 3/5: 3:16pm an additional 2500 calls purchased from PHLX exchange totaling $31.49 million
|
||||
|
||||
<https://imgur.com/gallery/G4JgzgP>
|
||||
|
||||
This brings the net to $162.5 million on the week and 14,500 calls.
|
||||
|
||||
Interestingly this is the first we've seen the buyer purchase 3/19/21 calls (400 @ 20c strike)
|
||||
|
||||
Some Additional DD:
|
||||
|
||||
First off, I'd like you to say thank you for all of the overwhelming support the last few days. The response to these posts have been off the charts and many of you have raised some eye opening questions and I'd like to summarize these points to you all. Remember that asking questions improves all of our overall understanding of this very complex topic.
|
||||
|
||||
Who is the buyer?: It has come to my attention that the consensus here is there are two scenarios for our buyer out of PHLX. This is either a rich whale (either a HF or individual) with some very deep pockets.(You dont go all-in with the only $162.5 million you have). This would be them opening a new position. The other scenario is that this is a HF preparing to cover their position. This could be them guaranteeing the rights to 1.45 million shares at a set price. Lets keep in mind though that this could be a drop in the bucket if there are truly hundreds of millions of shares that need to be covered. Buying these deep in the money calls could theoretically offload some of the risk of the HF's onto the market makers and exchanges. While this is may be a transference of risk someone will be ultimately holding the bag. This process of buying deep ITM calls to cover a short position when shares are otherwise unavailable has been called into question whether it should be legal.
|
||||
|
||||
Additional Info on ITM calls: With typical calls that are At-The-Money or Out-Of-The money you would almost never want to exercise early do to the loss of theta value (time remaining x volatility). With these extremely deep In-The-Money calls there is almost no theta component to these prices. We can delve into why this is in the comments but in a nutshell its because you are already putting so much up front that you basically are already are paying for the appropriate amount of risk. What I'm getting at here is that although these options are dated for 4/16/21 they can be exercised earlier at any time and it would be at no loss to the owners of these options.
|
||||
|
||||
Good evening Lady Apes and GMEtlemen,
|
||||
|
||||
UPDATE 3/4: 3:28pm 2,500 more calls purchased out of the PHLX exchange totaling 31.12 million
|
||||
|
||||
<https://imgur.com/a/zPNFMi9>
|
||||
|
||||
Good afternoon my fellow tendiemen,
|
||||
|
||||
I bring fantastic news to all the bagholding crayon eaters on this sub. This post is an update to the original post by [u/tapakip](https://www.reddit.com/u/tapakip/).
|
||||
|
||||
(3/1) Monday someone out of the PHLX exchange (Philadelphia) purchased roughly $45MM worth of deep ITM calls ($12 and $15 strike) <https://imgur.com/a/8ZCd3b9> = 3415 calls
|
||||
|
||||
(3/2) Tuesday same exchange another $20 million in deep ITM calls <https://imgur.com/gallery/Qp2phEm> = 1800 calls
|
||||
|
||||
(3/3) Wednesday another massive purchase of deep ITM calls from PHLX $45 million expiring 4/16/21
|
||||
|
||||
<https://imgur.com/gallery/Z05Vqmg> = 4210 calls
|
||||
|
||||
In total here we are looking at a purchase of roughly 9425 calls from what we believe is the same buyer over the course of the last 3 days. Unfortunately I do not have access to the historical data to see if the same buyer had bought more previously. Regardless this gives the buyer the rights to buy 942,500 shares by April 16 (presuming these options expire ITM). This is just one of the many factors setting up a potential gamma squeeze.
|
||||
|
||||
Something to note: These deep ITM calls are much different than someone buying $800 strike OTM yolo plays. Rather than spending the bulk of the money on theta (time value x volatility premium) the buyer chose to purchase a much more physical asset (the Intrinsic value of the deep ITM calls). This isn't someone saying I think this stock will reach some astronomical price, this is an individuals confidence to make a 100MM investment basically into the stock of this company. If this isn't a bullish sign then idk what is.
|
||||
|
||||
We are in good hands now APES
|
||||
|
||||
TL;DR: one buyer bought $100 million of calls on gamestop the last 3 days. Probably good for us
|
||||
|
||||
P.S. if I'm right my wife's boyfriend says I get to sleep inside
|
||||
|
||||
🙌💎 DIAMOND HANDS 🙌💎
|
||||
|
||||
Not a financial advisor blah blah you know the deal
|
@ -0,0 +1,63 @@
|
||||
UPDATE (3/5): $162.5 Million of DEEP ITM GME CALLS have been purchased since 3/1(Monday) NEW DD!
|
||||
================================================================================================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/Dan_Bren](https://www.reddit.com/user/Dan_Bren/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/comments/lylvrb/update_35_1625_million_of_deep_itm_gme_calls_have/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
|
||||
[DD](https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/search?q=flair_name%3A%22DD%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||
Salutations Future 1% Apes,
|
||||
|
||||
NEW DD!
|
||||
|
||||
UPDATE 3/5: 3:16pm an additional 2500 calls purchased from PHLX exchange totaling $31.49 million
|
||||
|
||||
<https://imgur.com/gallery/G4JgzgP>
|
||||
|
||||
This brings the net to $162.5 million on the week and 14,500 calls.
|
||||
|
||||
Interestingly this is the first we've seen the buyer purchase 3/19/21 calls (400 @ 20c strike)
|
||||
|
||||
Some Additional DD:
|
||||
|
||||
First off, I'd like you to say thank you for all of the overwhelming support the last few days. The response to these posts have been off the charts and many of you have raised some eye opening questions and I'd like to summarize these points to you all. Remember that asking questions improves all of our overall understanding of this very complex topic.
|
||||
|
||||
Who is the buyer?: It has come to my attention that the consensus here is there are two scenarios for our buyer out of PHLX. This is either a rich whale (either a HF or individual) with some very deep pockets.(You don't go all-in with the only $162.5 million you have). This would be them opening a new position. The other scenario is that this is a HF preparing to cover their position. This could be them guaranteeing the rights to 1.45 million shares at a set price. Lets keep in mind though that this could be a drop in the bucket if there are truly hundreds of millions of shares that need to be covered. Buying these deep in the money calls could theoretically offload some of the risk of the HF's onto the market makers and exchanges. While this is may be a transference of risk someone will be ultimately holding the bag. This process of buying deep ITM calls to cover a short position when shares are otherwise unavailable has been called into question whether it should be legal.
|
||||
|
||||
Additional Info on ITM calls: With typical calls that are At-The-Money or Out-Of-The money you would almost never want to exercise early do to the loss of theta value (time remaining x volatility). With these extremely deep In-The-Money calls there is almost no theta component to these prices. We can delve into why this is in the comments but in a nutshell its because you are already putting so much up front that you basically are already are paying for the appropriate amount of risk. What I'm getting at here is that although these options are dated for 4/16/21 they can be exercised earlier at any time and it would be at no loss to the owners of these options.
|
||||
|
||||
Good evening Lady Apes and GMEtlemen,
|
||||
|
||||
UPDATE 3/4: 3:28pm 2,500 more calls purchased out of the PHLX exchange totaling 31.12 million
|
||||
|
||||
<https://imgur.com/a/zPNFMi9>
|
||||
|
||||
Good afternoon my fellow tendiemen,
|
||||
|
||||
I bring fantastic news to all the bagholding crayon eaters on this sub. This post is an update to the original post by [u/tapakip](https://www.reddit.com/u/tapakip/).
|
||||
|
||||
(3/1) Monday someone out of the PHLX exchange (Philadelphia) purchased roughly $45MM worth of deep ITM calls ($12 and $15 strike) <https://imgur.com/a/8ZCd3b9> = 3415 calls
|
||||
|
||||
(3/2) Tuesday same exchange another $20 million in deep ITM calls <https://imgur.com/gallery/Qp2phEm> = 1800 calls
|
||||
|
||||
(3/3) Wednesday another massive purchase of deep ITM calls from PHLX $45 million expiring 4/16/21
|
||||
|
||||
<https://imgur.com/gallery/Z05Vqmg> = 4210 calls
|
||||
|
||||
In total here we are looking at a purchase of roughly 9425 calls from what we believe is the same buyer over the course of the last 3 days. Unfortunately I do not have access to the historical data to see if the same buyer had bought more previously. Regardless this gives the buyer the rights to buy 942,500 shares by April 16 (presuming these options expire ITM). This is just one of the many factors setting up a potential gamma squeeze.
|
||||
|
||||
Something to note: These deep ITM calls are much different than someone buying $800 strike OTM yolo plays. Rather than spending the bulk of the money on theta (time value x volatility premium) the buyer chose to purchase a much more physical asset (the Intrinsic value of the deep ITM calls). This isn't someone saying I think this stock will reach some astronomical price, this is an individuals confidence to make a 100MM investment basically into the stock of this company. If this isn't a bullish sign then idk what is.
|
||||
|
||||
We are in good hands now APES
|
||||
|
||||
TL;DR: one buyer bought $162.5 million of calls on gamestop the last 4 days. Probably good for us
|
||||
|
||||
P.S. if I'm right my wife's boyfriend says I get to make him dinner
|
||||
|
||||
🙌💎 DIAMOND HANDS 🙌💎
|
||||
|
||||
Not a financial advisor blah blah you know the deal
|
@ -0,0 +1,83 @@
|
||||
UPDATE (3/8): $84 MILLION IN CALLS IN LAST HOUR; 246.5M SINCE LAST MONDAY
|
||||
=========================================================================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/Dan_Bren](https://www.reddit.com/user/Dan_Bren/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/comments/m0pvlc/update_38_84_million_in_calls_in_last_hour_2465m/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
|
||||
[DD](https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/search?q=flair_name%3A%22DD%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||
New Post is UP 3/9: <https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/comments/m1hejz/quick_update_additional_40_million_deep_itm_calls/>
|
||||
|
||||
My fellow crayon eaters,
|
||||
|
||||
Update 3/8(3): 3:50pm 1800 more calls from PHLX (1200 $12c 4/16/21 and 600 $15c 4/16/21)(underlying share price - $196.71) for $33 million
|
||||
|
||||
<https://imgur.com/gallery/uHnjFPp>
|
||||
|
||||
Update 3/8(2): 3:34pm 1800 more calls from PHLX (1200 $12c 4/16/21 and 600 $15c 4/16/21)(underlying share price - $188.76) for $31.8 million
|
||||
|
||||
<https://imgur.com/gallery/5Seid1k>
|
||||
|
||||
Update 3/8: 2:58pm an additional 1100 calls from PHLX (4/16/21) $12 call for $19.1 million (underlying share price - $185)
|
||||
|
||||
This brings daily total to $84 million in calls and the overall total $246.5 million and 19,200 calls from PHLX since last Monday. (This is the rights to 1.92 million shares)
|
||||
|
||||
Another APE made a solid case for why they think this may be Shitadel and Melvin:
|
||||
|
||||
<https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/comments/m05jed/mystery_solved_the_deep_itm_calls_are_coming_from/>
|
||||
|
||||
Hard to say for sure but definitely worth at least a skim.
|
||||
|
||||
Salutations Future 1% Apes,
|
||||
|
||||
NEW DD!
|
||||
|
||||
UPDATE 3/5: 3:16pm an additional 2500 calls purchased from PHLX exchange totaling $31.49 million
|
||||
|
||||
<https://imgur.com/gallery/G4JgzgP>
|
||||
|
||||
Interestingly this is the first we've seen the buyer purchase 3/19/21 calls (400 @ 20c strike)
|
||||
|
||||
Some Additional DD:
|
||||
|
||||
First off, I'd like you to say thank you for all of the overwhelming support the last few days. The response to these posts have been off the charts and many of you have raised some eye opening questions and I'd like to summarize these points to you all. Remember that asking questions improves all of our overall understanding of this very complex topic.
|
||||
|
||||
Who is the buyer?: It has come to my attention that the consensus here is there are two scenarios for our buyer out of PHLX. This is either a rich whale (either a HF or individual) with some very deep pockets.(You don't go all-in with the only $162.5 million you have). This would be them opening a new position. The other scenario is that this is a HF preparing to cover their position. This could be them guaranteeing the rights to 1.45 million shares at a set price. Lets keep in mind though that this could be a drop in the bucket if there are truly hundreds of millions of shares that need to be covered. Buying these deep in the money calls could theoretically offload some of the risk of the HF's onto the market makers and exchanges. While this is may be a transference of risk, someone will be ultimately holding the bag. This process of buying deep ITM calls to cover a short position when shares are otherwise unavailable has been called into question whether it should be legal.
|
||||
|
||||
Additional Info on ITM calls: With typical calls that are At-The-Money or Out-Of-The money you would almost never want to exercise early do to the loss of theta value (time remaining x volatility). With these extremely deep In-The-Money calls there is almost no theta component to these prices. We can delve into why this is in the comments but in a nutshell its because you are already putting so much up front that you basically are already are paying for the appropriate amount of risk. What I'm getting at here is that although these options are dated for 4/16/21 they can be exercised earlier at any time and it would be at no loss to the owners of these options.
|
||||
|
||||
Good evening Lady Apes and GMEtlemen,
|
||||
|
||||
UPDATE 3/4: 3:28pm 2,500 more calls purchased out of the PHLX exchange totaling 31.12 million
|
||||
|
||||
<https://imgur.com/a/zPNFMi9>
|
||||
|
||||
Good afternoon my fellow tendiemen,
|
||||
|
||||
I bring fantastic news to all the bagholding crayon eaters on this sub. This post is an update to the original post by [u/tapakip](https://www.reddit.com/u/tapakip/).
|
||||
|
||||
(3/1) Monday someone out of the PHLX exchange (Philadelphia) purchased roughly $45MM worth of deep ITM calls ($12 and $15 strike) <https://imgur.com/a/8ZCd3b9> = 3415 calls
|
||||
|
||||
(3/2) Tuesday same exchange another $20 million in deep ITM calls <https://imgur.com/gallery/Qp2phEm> = 1800 calls
|
||||
|
||||
(3/3) Wednesday another massive purchase of deep ITM calls from PHLX $45 million expiring 4/16/21
|
||||
|
||||
<https://imgur.com/gallery/Z05Vqmg> = 4210 calls
|
||||
|
||||
In total here we are looking at a purchase of roughly 9425 calls from what we believe is the same buyer over the course of the last 3 days. Unfortunately I do not have access to the historical data to see if the same buyer had bought more previously. Regardless this gives the buyer the rights to buy 942,500 shares by April 16 (presuming these options expire ITM). This is just one of the many factors setting up a potential gamma squeeze.
|
||||
|
||||
Something to note: These deep ITM calls are much different than someone buying $800 strike OTM yolo plays. Rather than spending the bulk of the money on theta (time value x volatility premium) the buyer chose to purchase a much more physical asset (the Intrinsic value of the deep ITM calls). This isn't someone saying I think this stock will reach some astronomical price, this is an individuals confidence to make a 100MM investment basically into the stock of this company. If this isn't a bullish sign then idk what is.
|
||||
|
||||
We are in good hands now APES
|
||||
|
||||
TL;DR: one buyer bought $162.5 million of calls on gamestop the last 4 days. Probably good for us
|
||||
|
||||
P.S. if I'm right my wife's boyfriend says I get to make him dinner
|
||||
|
||||
🙌💎 DIAMOND HANDS 🙌💎
|
||||
|
||||
Not a financial advisor blah blah you know the deal
|
@ -0,0 +1,89 @@
|
||||
QUICK UPDATE: ADDITIONAL $40 MILLION DEEP ITM CALLS! TOTAL $286.5 MILLION 21,000 CALLS
|
||||
======================================================================================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/Dan_Bren](https://www.reddit.com/user/Dan_Bren/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/comments/m1hejz/quick_update_additional_40_million_deep_itm_calls/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
|
||||
[DD](https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/search?q=flair_name%3A%22DD%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||
Good Evenings Tendielovers,
|
||||
|
||||
Quick Update 3/9: 3:37pm 1800 calls from PHLX (I know starting to sound like broken record)(1200 $12c 4/16/21 and 600 $15c 4/16/21) for $40 million - underlying share price $237.28
|
||||
|
||||
<https://imgur.com/gallery/wzssQ0z>
|
||||
|
||||
Overall total $286.5 million and 21,000 calls from PHLX since last Monday. (This is the rights to 2.1 million shares)
|
||||
|
||||
Things are shaping up quite nicely. Going to be an exciting couple weeks/months going forward!
|
||||
|
||||
My fellow crayon eaters,
|
||||
|
||||
Update 3/8(3): 3:50pm 1800 more calls from PHLX (1200 $12c 4/16/21 and 600 $15c 4/16/21)(underlying share price - $196.71) for $33 million
|
||||
|
||||
<https://imgur.com/gallery/uHnjFPp>
|
||||
|
||||
Update 3/8(2): 3:34pm 1800 more calls from PHLX (1200 $12c 4/16/21 and 600 $15c 4/16/21)(underlying share price - $188.76) for $31.8 million
|
||||
|
||||
<https://imgur.com/gallery/5Seid1k>
|
||||
|
||||
Update 3/8: 2:58pm an additional 1100 calls from PHLX (4/16/21) $12 call for $19.1 million (underlying share price - $185)
|
||||
|
||||
Another APE made a solid case for why they think this may be Shitadel and Melvin:
|
||||
|
||||
<https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/comments/m05jed/mystery_solved_the_deep_itm_calls_are_coming_from/>
|
||||
|
||||
Hard to say for sure but definitely worth at least a skim.
|
||||
|
||||
Salutations Future 1% Apes,
|
||||
|
||||
NEW DD!
|
||||
|
||||
UPDATE 3/5: 3:16pm an additional 2500 calls purchased from PHLX exchange totaling $31.49 million
|
||||
|
||||
<https://imgur.com/gallery/G4JgzgP>
|
||||
|
||||
Interestingly this is the first we've seen the buyer purchase 3/19/21 calls (400 @ 20c strike)
|
||||
|
||||
Some Additional DD:
|
||||
|
||||
First off, I'd like you to say thank you for all of the overwhelming support the last few days. The response to these posts have been off the charts and many of you have raised some eye opening questions and I'd like to summarize these points to you all. Remember that asking questions improves all of our overall understanding of this very complex topic.
|
||||
|
||||
Who is the buyer?: It has come to my attention that the consensus here is there are two scenarios for our buyer out of PHLX. This is either a rich whale (either a HF or individual) with some very deep pockets.(You don't go all-in with the only $162.5 million you have). This would be them opening a new position. The other scenario is that this is a HF preparing to cover their position. This could be them guaranteeing the rights to 1.45 million shares at a set price. Lets keep in mind though that this could be a drop in the bucket if there are truly hundreds of millions of shares that need to be covered. Buying these deep in the money calls could theoretically offload some of the risk of the HF's onto the market makers and exchanges. While this is may be a transference of risk, someone will be ultimately holding the bag. This process of buying deep ITM calls to cover a short position when shares are otherwise unavailable has been called into question whether it should be legal.
|
||||
|
||||
Additional Info on ITM calls: With typical calls that are At-The-Money or Out-Of-The money you would almost never want to exercise early do to the loss of theta value (time remaining x volatility). With these extremely deep In-The-Money calls there is almost no theta component to these prices. We can delve into why this is in the comments but in a nutshell its because you are already putting so much up front that you basically are already are paying for the appropriate amount of risk. What I'm getting at here is that although these options are dated for 4/16/21 they can be exercised earlier at any time and it would be at no loss to the owners of these options.
|
||||
|
||||
Good evening Lady Apes and GMEtlemen,
|
||||
|
||||
UPDATE 3/4: 3:28pm 2,500 more calls purchased out of the PHLX exchange totaling 31.12 million
|
||||
|
||||
<https://imgur.com/a/zPNFMi9>
|
||||
|
||||
Good afternoon my fellow tendiemen,
|
||||
|
||||
I bring fantastic news to all the bagholding crayon eaters on this sub. This post is an update to the original post by [u/tapakip](https://www.reddit.com/u/tapakip/).
|
||||
|
||||
(3/1) Monday someone out of the PHLX exchange (Philadelphia) purchased roughly $45MM worth of deep ITM calls ($12 and $15 strike) <https://imgur.com/a/8ZCd3b9> = 3415 calls
|
||||
|
||||
(3/2) Tuesday same exchange another $20 million in deep ITM calls <https://imgur.com/gallery/Qp2phEm> = 1800 calls
|
||||
|
||||
(3/3) Wednesday another massive purchase of deep ITM calls from PHLX $45 million expiring 4/16/21
|
||||
|
||||
<https://imgur.com/gallery/Z05Vqmg> = 4210 calls
|
||||
|
||||
In total here we are looking at a purchase of roughly 9425 calls from what we believe is the same buyer over the course of the last 3 days. Unfortunately I do not have access to the historical data to see if the same buyer had bought more previously. Regardless this gives the buyer the rights to buy 942,500 shares by April 16 (presuming these options expire ITM). This is just one of the many factors setting up a potential gamma squeeze.
|
||||
|
||||
Something to note: These deep ITM calls are much different than someone buying $800 strike OTM yolo plays. Rather than spending the bulk of the money on theta (time value x volatility premium) the buyer chose to purchase a much more physical asset (the Intrinsic value of the deep ITM calls). This isn't someone saying I think this stock will reach some astronomical price, this is an individuals confidence to make a 100MM investment basically into the stock of this company. If this isn't a bullish sign then idk what is.
|
||||
|
||||
We are in good hands now APES
|
||||
|
||||
TL;DR: one buyer bought $162.5 million of calls on gamestop the last 4 days. Probably good for us
|
||||
|
||||
P.S. if I'm right my wife's boyfriend says I get to make him dinner
|
||||
|
||||
🙌💎 DIAMOND HANDS 🙌💎
|
||||
|
||||
Not a financial advisor blah blah you know the deal
|
@ -0,0 +1,43 @@
|
||||
2-DAY UPDATE: $168 MILLION on 6650 DEEP ITM CALLS; total since 3/1 $436.5 million = 27,650 calls
|
||||
================================================================================================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/Dan_Bren](https://www.reddit.com/user/Dan_Bren/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/comments/m31f8b/2day_update_168_million_on_6650_deep_itm_calls/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
|
||||
[DD](https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/search?q=flair_name%3A%22DD%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||
What up APES,
|
||||
|
||||
Today we are going to have a 2-day update on DEEP ITM calls because I was too busy to make a post yesterday. Thank you to all who were concerned I was gone but...
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/6a05lch4sgm61.jpg?width=500&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=bd6d8e4e82b8b224075ea44468c7461f43e6e61b)
|
||||
|
||||
3/11: 3:38pm 2150 calls purchased from PHLX for $54 million ($12, $15 and $18 calls) (each contract cost roughly 25k for my smooth brained friends) underlying share price - $261.36
|
||||
|
||||
<https://imgur.com/gallery/nI13Tnt>
|
||||
|
||||
3/10: 3:33-3:57pm 4500 calls bought out of PHLX for $114 million ($12 and $15 calls) underlying share prices - 263.01, 266.51, 269.51
|
||||
|
||||
Edit: Expiration is 4/16/21 on all these calls
|
||||
|
||||
<https://imgur.com/gallery/An4WEiV>
|
||||
|
||||
TL;DR Same buyer from PHLX exchange spent $168 million on 6650 DEEP ITM calls in last 2 days. Running total since 3/1 $436.5 million = 27,650 calls
|
||||
|
||||
If you didn't see my last post on my theory for what caused the mega dip go check it out
|
||||
|
||||
<https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/comments/m276h0/deep_itm_calls_caused_the_mega_dip_new_theory/>
|
||||
|
||||
Something to note: These deep ITM calls are much different than someone buying $800 strike OTM yolo plays. Rather than spending the bulk of the money on theta (time value x volatility premium) the buyer chose to purchase a much more physical asset (the Intrinsic value of the deep ITM calls). This isn't someone saying I think this stock will reach some astronomical price, this is an individuals decision to make a 100MM investment basically into the stock of this company.
|
||||
|
||||
We are in good hands now APES
|
||||
|
||||
Plot twist: my wife's boyfriend left her for me
|
||||
|
||||
🙌💎 DIAMOND HANDS 🙌💎
|
||||
|
||||
Not a financial advisor blah blah you know the deal
|
@ -0,0 +1,23 @@
|
||||
$106M of DEEP ITM calls were purchased on Thursday (4/1/21)
|
||||
===========================================================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/Dan_Bren](https://www.reddit.com/user/Dan_Bren/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/comments/mk6e2q/106m_of_deep_itm_calls_were_purchased_on_thursday/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
|
||||
[DD 📊](https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/search?q=flair_name%3A%22DD%20%F0%9F%93%8A%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||
Happy Easter Apes,
|
||||
|
||||
The folks at PHLX are back at it again with massive DEEP ITM call purchases before close
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/kqts0fdcf8r61.jpg?width=1222&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=f4fc1040a414ebc4e5663647038da913ad1d33c8)
|
||||
|
||||
GME Biggest Trades 4-4-2021
|
||||
|
||||
As you can see from the data above a buyer out of PHLX bought $106 million of these DEEP ITM calls at 1:22pm and 3:29pm totaling 5960 calls at assorted strike prices ($12-20). These is a pretty massive purchase and it is my belief they made be using these to hide FTD's (Failed-to-deliver). These all expire 4/16/2021 leading me to believe the next few weeks we will see heightened volatility as we near the quarter's hottest expiry date (4/16). With some potential major catalysts looming things are definitely getting pretty spicy.
|
||||
|
||||
Today I eat ~~ramen~~ crayons so I will one day eat banana
|
@ -0,0 +1,26 @@
|
||||
NO DEEP ITM CALLS WERE BOUGHT FRIDAY (4/9)
|
||||
|
||||
==========================================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/Dan_Bren](https://www.reddit.com/user/Dan_Bren/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/mowbw3/no_deep_itm_calls_were_bought_friday_49/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
|
||||
[DD 👨🔬](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22DD%20%F0%9F%91%A8%E2%80%8D%F0%9F%94%AC%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||
Hope all of you Apes are having a good weekend,
|
||||
|
||||
Sorry for the delay but the weekend is an excellent time to ~~refresh~~ restock on crayons for the coming week.
|
||||
|
||||
I'm [u/Dan_Bren](https://www.reddit.com/u/Dan_Bren/) let's get into it:
|
||||
|
||||
As you can see blow there were no large block trades of DEEP ITM calls.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/tp9su9gn5ls61.jpg?width=1219&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=a5bc654e8ad77a3cd711215cbac416768624b1ef)
|
||||
|
||||
GME Biggest Trades 4-9-2021
|
||||
|
||||
I am unsure if this is the last of these DEEP ITM or we have possibly one more wave of them to expect. Time will tell I'll keep you posted. Refer to my recent posts for more discussion on the topic.
|
@ -0,0 +1,23 @@
|
||||
UPDATE 4/12 (MONDAY) NO LARGE BLOCK TRADES OF DEEP ITM CALLS TODAY
|
||||
==================================================================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/Dan_Bren](https://www.reddit.com/user/Dan_Bren/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/mpquk6/update_412_monday_no_large_block_trades_of_deep/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
|
||||
[DD 👨🔬](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22DD%20%F0%9F%91%A8%E2%80%8D%F0%9F%94%AC%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||
Good evening Apes I hope this post finds you well,
|
||||
|
||||
I'm your host [u/Dan_Bren](https://www.reddit.com/u/Dan_Bren/) lets get right into it:
|
||||
|
||||
Wanted to provide you all with an update for today. As you can see below there were no deep in-the-money calls purchased today.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/3mgbwc7d1us61.png?width=1226&format=png&auto=webp&s=c6ea20eb0c904426db05e0407ead39af6ac971af)
|
||||
|
||||
GME Biggest Trades 4-12-2021
|
||||
|
||||
This makes 5 out of the last 6 days with no large block trades of DEEP ITM calls. The one day being a relatively small amount (compared to prior block purchases). Short and sweet today. Hang in there (pun intended)
|
@ -0,0 +1,35 @@
|
||||
ANOTHER DAY WITHOUT LARGE BLOCK PURCHASES OF DEEP ITM CALLS (4/13)
|
||||
==================================================================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/Dan_Bren](https://www.reddit.com/user/Dan_Bren/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/mqiir8/another_day_without_large_block_purchases_of_deep/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
|
||||
[DD 👨🔬](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22DD%20%F0%9F%91%A8%E2%80%8D%F0%9F%94%AC%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||
Good evening everyone,
|
||||
|
||||
[u/Dan_Bren](https://www.reddit.com/u/Dan_Bren/) here Just wanted to provide you all with the daily update regarding the block trades of DEEP ITM calls that were previously happening.
|
||||
|
||||
As can be seen below there were no large block trades of DEEP ITM calls bring the total to 6 out of the last 7 days without any large block purchases.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/sfgloyxjs1t61.png?width=1227&format=png&auto=webp&s=2c661aa49ad4ed79158738a3ba492bbd19ccf981)
|
||||
|
||||
GME Biggest Trades 4-13-2021
|
||||
|
||||
I just want to be clear that I'm not here to speculate on what I don't know. I just take the dataset I am presented daily and provide my best inferences to the good people of this sub. Nothing here should be taken as fact it is purely my opinion and mine alone. With that being said I think the lack of large block trades of DEEP ITM calls is very telling.
|
||||
|
||||
Many have been quick to point out that this doesn't mean there are no DEEP ITM calls being purchased. This is of course true as the "Big Trade Detector" doesn't catch any trades smaller than 100-200 contracts. But let's delve into this more. If they could be making these trades in smaller chunks "off the radar" of things like this Biggest Options trades list from Fidelity why aren't they?
|
||||
|
||||
For starters lets talk about risk. These large block trades of DEEP ITM calls were almost always traded in pairs. It has been surmised from some other DD posts that it is very likely that this the whoever buying and then shortly after reselling. Let's take a look at the time period over which these trades took place.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/e0tyatsny1t61.jpg?width=1222&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=04c94f073c9d3cc4fd00f1fb6f593b50f86dc86a)
|
||||
|
||||
GME Biggest Options Trades 4-4-2021
|
||||
|
||||
The $20 and $12 calls were very likely purchased 13:22:50 and likely sold at 13:22:52 (aka 2 seconds later). Personally I have no idea of the intricacies of how these are used to reset FTD's and I'm not going to sit here and pretend to understand. What I do know is that if I was buying and reselling 100's of millions of dollars of call options on a very volatile stock I would be trying to unload these positions are quickly as possible to minimize my risk exposure. The most efficient way to do this of course is buying and selling these quickly in one large chunk and ended up on our favorite daily chart pictured above. Now you may notice that on the other set of $12 and $15 calls (probably) purchased at 13:58:05 but (likely) sold at 15:29:24. The reason for why they held them this long you may ask; I don't have a goddamn clue. I don't know if this had to do with the reset process, if they used it to further manipulate the stock, or if they just decided to be gamblers for an hour and a half. What I do know is they would've hidden these from us the whole time if they had the ability to. The disappearance of these large block trades is significant and if they are to proceed without them, this will negatively impact them in some way.
|
||||
|
||||
[u/Dan_Bren](https://www.reddit.com/u/Dan_Bren/) out.
|
@ -0,0 +1,27 @@
|
||||
2160 DEEP ITM CALLS WERE PURCHASED IN LARGE BLOCK TRADES FROM PHLX TODAY (4/14)
|
||||
===============================================================================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/Dan_Bren](https://www.reddit.com/user/Dan_Bren/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/mr4ykn/2160_deep_itm_calls_were_purchased_in_large_block/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
|
||||
[DD 👨🔬](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22DD%20%F0%9F%91%A8%E2%80%8D%F0%9F%94%AC%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||
What up Apes,
|
||||
|
||||
[u/Dan_Bren](https://www.reddit.com/u/Dan_Bren/) you know the deal.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/ijmqmhz0s8t61.png?width=1224&format=png&auto=webp&s=78c68ecdecde5e0152121b291eb3ff9fd80f111d)
|
||||
|
||||
GME Biggest Trades 4-14-2021
|
||||
|
||||
Large block purchases out of PHLX at 3:18pm (yeah I can do the conversion). 1160 $1.5 calls for 158.70($15,870 each) = $18,409,200. 500 $12 calls for 148.20 ($14820) = $7,410,000. 500 $25 calls for 135.20 ($13520) = 6,760,000 totaling $32,579,000 all of these calls expiring in two days 4/16/21.
|
||||
|
||||
Could this be the start of the (potential) last wave of DEEP ITM calls as we had previously discussed [here](https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/comments/mmjy19/some_deep_itm_calls_were_bought_today_the_final/). Another interesting thing to note is that these were very frequently traded in pairs previously and so it had been theorized that these were being bought and sold. The ones bought today were not in pairs and so we can narrow it down to three potential options(HA). If they were bought and sold in the same second the size of the trades could be halved and it could essential be its own "pair." This also only captures the data for large trades and so if they were sold in smaller bunches I wouldn't be able to see it. Lastly they could still be holding them.
|
||||
|
||||
We shall see if there is more of this tomorrow. As always I will keep you posted.
|
||||
|
||||
A far-fetched theory (right?) : I always kind of assumed these calls were being bought but the data set I have doesn't really indicate buy or sell. This is why I have to make some assumptions when it comes to thinking they are often traded in pairs. What if the whole time they were selling them and collecting the premiums. this would go against some of the FTD resetting theories so this is of course just an idea I had but it just caught me off guard as I had never considered it.
|
@ -0,0 +1,21 @@
|
||||
NO BLOCK TRADES OF DEEP ITM CALLS TODAY (4/15)
|
||||
==============================================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/Dan_Bren](https://www.reddit.com/user/Dan_Bren/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/mrr8zv/no_block_trades_of_deep_itm_calls_today_415/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
|
||||
[DD 👨🔬](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22DD%20%F0%9F%91%A8%E2%80%8D%F0%9F%94%AC%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||
What up Apes,
|
||||
|
||||
[u/Dan_Bren](https://www.reddit.com/u/Dan_Bren/) with a super quick update. No additional DD tonight giving myself the night off. Here's todays biggest options trades from Fidelity.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/l5i0xjv5dft61.jpg?width=1223&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=77357f26df390db3d8e7782c70c6539faf793eee)
|
||||
|
||||
GME Biggest Trades 4-15-2021
|
||||
|
||||
See you all tomorrow! Starting to think my wife's boyfriend might be into women.
|
@ -0,0 +1,23 @@
|
||||
NO BLOCK TRADES OF DEEP ITM CALLS ON FRIDAY (4/16)
|
||||
==================================================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/Dan_Bren](https://www.reddit.com/user/Dan_Bren/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/mtpyfw/no_block_trades_of_deep_itm_calls_on_friday_416/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
|
||||
[DD 👨🔬](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22DD%20%F0%9F%91%A8%E2%80%8D%F0%9F%94%AC%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||
Hope you all had a great weekend,
|
||||
|
||||
I'm [u/Dan_Bren](https://www.reddit.com/u/Dan_Bren/) lets get right into it.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/5pe0ciat51u61.png?width=1230&format=png&auto=webp&s=d9beb8b788aa7b6d97d449d72360e120ee5c306e)
|
||||
|
||||
GME Biggest Trades 4-18-2021
|
||||
|
||||
As you can see from the image above there were no large block trades of DEEP ITM calls. I think this is likely a result of this being the expiration date of the DEEP ITM calls that were being traded. If you look back at my prior posts you can see that almost every large block trade of DEEP ITM calls were dated for 4/16/21. Seeing as they would be extra volatile on their last day it would make sense why Hedgies wouldn't want to trade them (although DEEP ITM calls have very little theta a.k.a. time value decay). I will be curious to see if these start up again with an expiration on the next large quarterly options date (something like 7/16/21) or if these will disappear entirely. As always I will keep you posted. See you tomorrow.
|
||||
|
||||
I may need to invest in Crayola at the end of all this. My Red addiction is getting the best of me.
|
@ -0,0 +1,25 @@
|
||||
NO DEEP ITM CALLS PURCHASED IN LARGE QUANTITIES TODAY (4/19)
|
||||
============================================================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/Dan_Bren](https://www.reddit.com/user/Dan_Bren/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/mueq2m/no_deep_itm_calls_purchased_in_large_quantities/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
|
||||
[DD 👨🔬](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22DD%20%F0%9F%91%A8%E2%80%8D%F0%9F%94%AC%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||
Good evening Apes,
|
||||
|
||||
[u/Dan_Bren](https://www.reddit.com/u/Dan_Bren/) here. Hope everyone had a great Monday as I know I did. The weekends feel like an eternity when you're waiting for the market to open. What a weird world we live in where on the weekend I look forward to Monday. What is wrong with me? Besides the fact that I eat crayons and sleep in my wife's boyfriends Honda Civic. Enough chit-chat let's get into the data.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/7d36bp1t38u61.jpg?width=1222&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=51decc9d6190708a6d7ca15d5d323b3f19841d54)
|
||||
|
||||
GME Biggest Trades 4-19-2021
|
||||
|
||||
As you can see from the image above there were no large block purchases of DEEP ITM calls. Nothing really important to note in the options activity (on the Biggest Trades list) as the largest transaction looked to be some $190 calls that traded for less than $1 million. Pocket change compared to the tens of millions we saw in purchases previously. As always I will continue to monitor this on-going situation and keep you posted.
|
||||
|
||||
It will be interesting to see if FTD's begin to pile up as we have seen a fairly low amount of these DEEP ITM calls in the recent days. Unfortunately our access to this data is delayed (I believe 2 weeks) and so we will be in the dark on this to some extent. I don't know about you guys but I've reached this Zen phase of "inevitably we will be rich, I don't really care when it happens."
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/38ppypow48u61.png?width=571&format=png&auto=webp&s=c7068e45be91ac8862b2158283076aa8b01e64df)
|
@ -0,0 +1,44 @@
|
||||
NO DEEP ITM CALL BLOCKS PURCHASED TODAY (4/21)
|
||||
|
||||
==============================================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/Dan_Bren](https://www.reddit.com/user/Dan_Bren/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/mvv0t9/no_deep_itm_call_blocks_purchased_today_421/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
|
||||
[Discussion 🦍](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22Discussion%20%F0%9F%A6%8D%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||
What up Apes,
|
||||
|
||||
[u/Dan_Bren](https://www.reddit.com/u/Dan_Bren/) with a quick update on today's DEEP ITM calls.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/0rve0srysmu61.png?width=1226&format=png&auto=webp&s=e12f5155f7ecc8bc1d7e2963ba12eef3863c2e63)
|
||||
|
||||
GME Biggest Options Trades 4/21/2021
|
||||
|
||||
There weren't any. (Large purchases)
|
||||
|
||||
Nothing really new on this front so I wanted to take this time explain a bit more into how these DEEP ITM calls were being used to "hide" FTD's(Failed-to deliver).
|
||||
|
||||
I personally was not the best when it came to explaining this but an ape with more wrinkles than I summed it up beautifully. BIG shoutout [u/ujar89](https://www.reddit.com/u/ujar89/) for this one:
|
||||
|
||||
Here is the process they use to reset/hide FTDs. Please keep in mind Citadel is also a market maker. (Yes I know, conflict of interest). 'A' can be Citadel and 'B' can be Melvin in this example.
|
||||
|
||||
1\. A (the market maker) gives B X amount of synthetic shares (remember only market makers have this power). B gives A collateral so A doesn't get screwed (the collateral is basically the premium A pays to purchase the contracts from B).
|
||||
|
||||
2\. B uses those synthetic shares to close out existing FTD positions.
|
||||
|
||||
3\. B writes deep ITM calls (so A knows it's B).
|
||||
|
||||
4\. A buys the calls and exercises them receiving X shares back as IOUs.
|
||||
|
||||
5\. Now B has effectively closed out old FTDs while creating fresh new IOUs that will become FTDs in due time.
|
||||
|
||||
6\. Repeat as needed to avoid reporting FTDs and pretend like you covered.
|
||||
|
||||
I hope this helped cleared up the inner workings of the process for some of you.
|
||||
|
||||
See you all tomorrow
|
@ -0,0 +1,19 @@
|
||||
NO ITM CALL BLOCK PURCHASES TODAY (4/22)
|
||||
========================================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/Dan_Bren](https://www.reddit.com/user/Dan_Bren/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/mwm16e/no_itm_call_block_purchases_today_422/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
|
||||
[Discussion 🦍](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22Discussion%20%F0%9F%A6%8D%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||
Late post but wanted to get the data out from your friendly neighborhood [u/Dan_Bren](https://www.reddit.com/u/Dan_Bren/)
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/4qbmj7m5auu61.png?width=1226&format=png&auto=webp&s=8b7df47ee1e8fe4e38c3e720f0b39dc69a0d3341)
|
||||
|
||||
GME Biggest Options Trades 4/22/2021 (from Fidelity)
|
||||
|
||||
Brings the running total to 12 out of the last 14 trading days without large purchases that registered on the charts. I haven't heard a thing out of PHLX either but what do I know I've got crayons wedged in my ears. See you tomorrow
|
@ -0,0 +1,23 @@
|
||||
NO DEEP ITM CALL BLOCKS TRADED TODAY (4/27)
|
||||
===========================================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/Dan_Bren](https://www.reddit.com/user/Dan_Bren/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/n04v84/no_deep_itm_call_blocks_traded_today_427/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
|
||||
[Discussion 🦍](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22Discussion%20%F0%9F%A6%8D%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||
Good Evening Apes and Apettes,
|
||||
|
||||
Gonna keep it short and sweet tonight my wife's boyfriend says I get 10 minutes on the computer.
|
||||
|
||||
No GME Block trades of DEEP ITM calls today (data below)
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/7ze44se0stv61.jpg?width=1228&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=b5b198bac5b0355b383fc48b07edcc6927d7fe21)
|
||||
|
||||
GME Biggest Options Trades 4/27/21
|
||||
|
||||
Just a quick update for everyone to log the data in an easily accessible place. Feel free to reference my prior posts for a deeper explanation if you haven't been following along. I wish you all a crown of crayons someday. Until then, I'm [u/Dan_Bren](https://www.reddit.com/u/Dan_Bren/) see you tomorrow.
|
@ -0,0 +1,23 @@
|
||||
NO LARGE PURCHASES OF DEEP ITM CALLS TODAY (4/28)
|
||||
=================================================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/Dan_Bren](https://www.reddit.com/user/Dan_Bren/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/n0u360/no_large_purchases_of_deep_itm_calls_today_428/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
|
||||
[Discussion 🦍](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22Discussion%20%F0%9F%A6%8D%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||
[u/Dan_Bren](https://www.reddit.com/u/Dan_Bren/) DEEP ITM calls you know what it is.
|
||||
|
||||
Were there any large purchases? No
|
||||
|
||||

|
||||
|
||||
[GME Biggest Options Trades 4/28/21](https://preview.redd.it/otxd0ghen0w61.png?width=1223&format=png&auto=webp&s=edf36746144054f0251f435f5291353fbbe982da)
|
||||
|
||||
Since there's no new news on the DEEP ITM call front (which is always good news). I wanted to take this time to give a shoutout to my fellow ape [u/YoungbloodAA](https://www.reddit.com/user/YoungbloodAA/) for the kickass background. My setup wasn't truly complete until now.
|
||||
|
||||
[Disclaimer: I did not pay for this setup with GME stock because that would require me to have ever sold a share](https://preview.redd.it/kbmp96lzo0w61.jpg?width=3818&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=540511231bf94874a88b3e04d0a0d70e06dd5e76)
|
@ -0,0 +1,21 @@
|
||||
DEEP ITM CALLS - NO LARGE PURCHASES (4/29)
|
||||
==========================================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/Dan_Bren](https://www.reddit.com/user/Dan_Bren/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/n1hd5z/deep_itm_calls_no_large_purchases_429/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
|
||||
[Education 👨🏫 | Data 🔢](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22Education%20%F0%9F%91%A8%E2%80%8D%F0%9F%8F%AB%20%7C%20Data%20%F0%9F%94%A2%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||
Good evening Apes,
|
||||
|
||||
[u/Dan_Bren](https://www.reddit.com/u/Dan_Bren/) with the quick update for everyone: no large block purchases of DEEP ITM calls today (4/29)
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/gd0arpdo47w61.jpg?width=1220&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=7c530b5f28750288cb5542c4b3829df821955d3e)
|
||||
|
||||
GME Biggest Options Trades 4/29/21
|
||||
|
||||
Idk about you guys but I loved that AMA today; so informative and feel like [u/Atobitt](https://www.reddit.com/u/Atobitt/) was able to really steer the conversation well and keep us on topic. I know I learned a lot and hope you all took something away from it as well. Those are valuable insights! See ya tomorrow
|
@ -0,0 +1,25 @@
|
||||
$23 MILLION IN DEEP ITM PUTS PURCHASED IN LARGE BLOCKS ON FRIDAY (4/30) OUT OF CBOE (CHICAGO) AND EMLD (MIAMI) EXCHANGES
|
||||
========================================================================================================================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/Dan_Bren](https://www.reddit.com/user/Dan_Bren/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/comments/n3fgt1/23_million_in_deep_itm_puts_purchased_in_large/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
|
||||
[🔬 DD 📊](https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/search?q=flair_name%3A%22%F0%9F%94%AC%20DD%20%F0%9F%93%8A%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||
Happy Sunday Apes,
|
||||
|
||||
It's your friendly neighborhood [u/Dan_Bren](https://www.reddit.com/u/Dan_Bren/). Friday was a spicy day on the options front. Let's get right into it:
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/3vl4xbhzqrw61.png?width=1227&format=png&auto=webp&s=d4b5046213e48ee451f8fd84ccf0d341840d3e40)
|
||||
|
||||
GME Biggest Options Trades 4/30/21
|
||||
|
||||
As you can see from the data above there were several large block trades of DEEP ITM Puts which can effectively be used in the same way we had seen the DEEP ITM calls used. On Friday there were 858 trades (in blocks) of the 4/30 $300 Puts for $10,215,018. Additionally there was 1,058 trades of the 5/21 $300 Puts for $13,161,978. All of these trades came out of the EMLD (Miami) and CBOE (Chicago) exchanges.
|
||||
|
||||
These purchases are relatively in line with the size of purchases we began to see at the beginning of April and so I will continue into monitor early next week to see if these continue to appear in mass. It is interesting to see these exchanges pop up on the Biggest Options Trades lists as I had not previously seen them buying DEEP ITM calls on here. I wonder what other viable options they had for resetting FTD's and if any of the new DTCC rules and causing them to resort to buying these DEEP ITM CALLS AND PUTS.
|
||||
|
||||
TL;DR: Read the title.💎🙌
|
@ -0,0 +1,21 @@
|
||||
NO DEEP ITM CALLS OR PUTS TODAY (5/6)
|
||||
=====================================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/Dan_Bren](https://www.reddit.com/user/Dan_Bren/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/n6op3b/no_deep_itm_calls_or_puts_today_56/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
|
||||
[Education 👨🏫 | Data 🔢](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22Education%20%F0%9F%91%A8%E2%80%8D%F0%9F%8F%AB%20%7C%20Data%20%F0%9F%94%A2%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||
Quick update for my Apes:
|
||||
|
||||
No DEEP ITM Calls or Puts were purchased in large block trades today.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/yi3mfksr4mx61.png?width=1219&format=png&auto=webp&s=dfa1f7dde677de86616639fd1fca4bbd8dd04ab6)
|
||||
|
||||
GME Biggest Options Trades 5/6/21
|
||||
|
||||
There's been a rather significant reduction in the frequency at which we are seeing these large block purchases. Time will tell the true impact this is having on the FTD's. Keeping it short as there's not much to report on this front. [u/Dan_Bren](https://www.reddit.com/u/Dan_Bren/) out 💎🙌 🚀
|
@ -0,0 +1,33 @@
|
||||
A COUPLE DEEP ITM PUTS AND LOTS OF OTM CALLS WERE BOUGHT OVER THE LAST 3 MARKET DAYS (5/7-FRIDAY, 5/11-MONDAY, 5/12-TUESDAY)
|
||||
============================================================================================================================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/Dan_Bren](https://www.reddit.com/user/Dan_Bren/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nafcuh/a_couple_deep_itm_puts_and_lots_of_otm_calls_were/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
|
||||
[Education 👨🏫 | Data 🔢](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22Education%20%F0%9F%91%A8%E2%80%8D%F0%9F%8F%AB%20%7C%20Data%20%F0%9F%94%A2%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||
Good evening Apes,
|
||||
|
||||
Sorry for the lack of posts lately but sometimes life gets in the way. Fortunately I still managed to find time to save the data from each market day. With that said let's get into it.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/ng46piilwly61.png?width=1229&format=png&auto=webp&s=fa9a79515f490283fabd71060d362cc37d546111)
|
||||
|
||||
GME Biggest Options Trades 5/7/21
|
||||
|
||||
Friday is where we basically saw all of the action. There were block purchases of 684 $300 puts for $9,435,780 with expirations 5/7(same day) and 6/18 out of EMLD (Miami). The other super interesting action can be found within the $800 calls purchased in mass quantities (~5063 calls) expiring July 16. These trades total somewhere in the neighborhood of $1.5 million and came out of BZX (Chicago) and GEMX (regional exchange for Africa, Latin America, and Southeast Asia). Quick crayon break and we'll move on.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/it074z1jyly61.png?width=1016&format=png&auto=webp&s=0dd1a76bfe824fb1a3dbd678559692c3697c196d)
|
||||
|
||||
GME Biggest Options Trades 5/10/21
|
||||
|
||||
Nothing really of note on Monday a relatively quiet day on the options front.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/henpfgxkyly61.png?width=1174&format=png&auto=webp&s=dbe1c6a84feb7370a83b1d313f77e9cd56fd1b2e)
|
||||
|
||||
GME Biggest Options Trades 5/11/21
|
||||
|
||||
Today (tuesday) was another seemingly calm day in terms of options although we saw a bit more activity with the $800 OTM calls with roughly 346 purchased in large block trades out of BZX and PEARL with the same July 16 expiration date. Let's keep in mind these $800 DEEP OTM calls are very cheap but they still have a cost. Not sure if these are being used as a bullish bet, as a hedge, or if somehow this all ties back to the FTD resets. Not my job to sit here and speculate, I am just a smooth-brained crayon eating ape that's here to bring you the data. Hopefully will be seeing you again tomorrow. [u/Dan_Bren](https://www.reddit.com/u/Dan_Bren/) out.
|
@ -0,0 +1,23 @@
|
||||
NO SIGNIFICANT TRADES OF DEEP ITM CALL OR PUT OPTIONS (5/12)
|
||||
============================================================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/Dan_Bren](https://www.reddit.com/user/Dan_Bren/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nb35if/no_significant_trades_of_deep_itm_call_or_put/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
|
||||
[Education 👨🏫 | Data 🔢](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22Education%20%F0%9F%91%A8%E2%80%8D%F0%9F%8F%AB%20%7C%20Data%20%F0%9F%94%A2%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||
Good Afternoon Apes,
|
||||
|
||||
Quick update from [u/Dan_Bren](https://www.reddit.com/u/Dan_Bren/) for all my data loving, crayon munching, smooth-brained apes. (data below)
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/wylpkbw81sy61.png?width=934&format=png&auto=webp&s=2323af3dbc309ac0a3ba5ebe5bbb2a62d1a71232)
|
||||
|
||||
GME Biggest Options Trades 5/12/21
|
||||
|
||||
As you can see from the data above there was very little significant action on the options chain today. I say it that way because we did have one transaction of about 100 DEEP ITM $250 puts but this is rather insignificant in comparison to the bulk we usually see these block trades come in. I will continue to monitor for more DEEP ITM & OTM options later this week. Keeping it brief today hope you all enjoy the rest of your day.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/jb2oert42sy61.jpg?width=888&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=ccdc036780abdd2b6b40ab41bbb59b7cc469e8e0)
|
@ -0,0 +1,41 @@
|
||||
NO DEEP ITM CALLS HAVE BEEN PURCHASED ALL WEEK LONG: THE RETURN OF DAN_BREN (5/24-5/27)
|
||||
=======================================================================================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/Dan_Bren](https://www.reddit.com/user/Dan_Bren/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nmozvh/no_deep_itm_calls_have_been_purchased_all_week/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
|
||||
[Education 👨🏫 | Data 🔢](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22Education%20%F0%9F%91%A8%E2%80%8D%F0%9F%8F%AB%20%7C%20Data%20%F0%9F%94%A2%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||
What up Apes,
|
||||
|
||||
Its good to be back. I have about 2 weeks of data to share with you all but for this post we're going to just cover this week. What a week we've had so far and its not over yet! Let's get right into the data:
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/4hsi872r7s171.png?width=1133&format=png&auto=webp&s=1142cfb61b3572d218b1417466f1820560a91aa3)
|
||||
|
||||
Monday GME Biggest Options Trades 5/24/21
|
||||
|
||||
No DEEP ITM Call options on Monday but some interesting action with some (potentially bullish) DEEP OTM calls.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/pkenv32r7s171.png?width=1134&format=png&auto=webp&s=9cb1f4dccd309877dea83a22b71d7beba5336b1c)
|
||||
|
||||
Tuesday GME Biggest Options Trades 5/25/21
|
||||
|
||||
Once again no DEEP ITM call options but some more action on both the $800 call (which we saw on Monday) and the $370 call. We shall see if these become resistance levels in the future.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/furlx42r7s171.png?width=1132&format=png&auto=webp&s=ba094b238fd930926032260977e76d9126d091a9)
|
||||
|
||||
Wednesday GME Biggest Options Trades 5/26/21
|
||||
|
||||
Quite a bit a of action with both DEEP OTM Puts and Calls being purchased in mass quantities but no large purchases of DEEP ITM Calls.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/gxy6o42r7s171.png?width=1134&format=png&auto=webp&s=0bbe8737e338395ef668c7e6895af6626414168b)
|
||||
|
||||
Thursday GME Biggest Options Trades 5/27/21
|
||||
|
||||
Today contained one large block purchases of ITM calls but I wouldn't completely consider this a DEEP ITM calls like we saw with the $12 and $15 calls in the past. This was a purchase (or sale) of 200 of the $130 call. Other than this a pretty uneventful day in terms of large block purchases of options.
|
||||
|
||||
I won't keep you all any longer. Its an honor to be back and appreciate all the kind apes who reached out to check in on me. The community around here is what makes this place special. I hope you all have a great rest of your night. [u/Dan_Bren](https://www.reddit.com/u/Dan_Bren/) out.
|
@ -0,0 +1,53 @@
|
||||
Gamma Signals Firing Again!!
|
||||
============================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/yelyah2](https://www.reddit.com/user/yelyah2/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nqwtms/gamma_signals_firing_again/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
|
||||
[Education 👨🏫 | Data 🔢](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22Education%20%F0%9F%91%A8%E2%80%8D%F0%9F%8F%AB%20%7C%20Data%20%F0%9F%94%A2%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||
TLDR: It's baaaacckkk!!! The signals are firing up again for another gamma squeeze!
|
||||
|
||||
*BIG Edit:* So excited to see how much this took off in the last few hours! I didn't properly get the chance before, but I'll tell you now why I'm so excited...
|
||||
|
||||
As you can see, for the last few months I've been anxiously pulling my options data/running my algos every day, and disappointed when I haven't seen that gamma spike since the beginning of March. I've seen other tickers get their spikes, watched AMC's spike for like 2 weeks straight, but no GME....
|
||||
|
||||
Then finally last week there was a spike! And I couldn't wait to tell everyone! But it quickly went away, then the three day weekend happened, and was like... was it just a fluke?
|
||||
|
||||
Then today, [u/Criand](https://www.reddit.com/u/Criand/) wrote an epic post that put some pieces together with my gamma spikes and the FTD cycles. I ran my algos between meetings this afternoon, and there she was, that beautiful golden spike came back! I couldn't wait to run onto the internet to tell all my friends! Cause lord knows my husband doesn't get excited about this stuff! And my two young kiddos were having some kind of crisis about cheese (understandable though).
|
||||
|
||||
Anyways, it wasn't a fluke, these spikes cluster together for the big ones. I'm excited.... I'm jacked.... I can feel it.... I have a hard time understanding all the dd, but I understand this work that I've poured a lot of myself into, and it's telling me our chances of that MOASS just went up by a lot... like a lot....
|
||||
|
||||
I have backtested my method using various machine learning/deep learning methods, and the chances of significant increases (5%+) with one of these spikes is around 70%, and goes up to ~80% with multiple spikes. Chances of big increases (10%+) are around 50%, and in GME's case... well... it likes to go BOOM!
|
||||
|
||||
I don't put all my faith into these machine learning methods though, probably the nature of an actuary. Machines get you half way, and you have to read the numbers to make calls for yourself. My machines are telling me the conditions are ready.... the other dd is telling me we're ready... and most importantly for every individual ape to feel for themselves, my gut is telling me we're FUK'ING READY!!! LET'S GOOOOOO!!!!!!
|
||||
|
||||
Original Post
|
||||
|
||||
So excited to share that another gamma neutral spike started today, up to $9,233 (up from the $7,387 spike last week)!
|
||||
|
||||
See this post from today by [u/Criand](https://www.reddit.com/u/Criand/) about the interesting relationship between the T+21/T+35 cycle, the gamma neutral spikes and the fuk'd level of hedgies: [Gamma Spike and T+21/T+35 Cycles](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nqbera/things_are_shockingly_similar_to_the_february/)
|
||||
|
||||
Graph below in log base 10 so you can see this beauty:
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/3as9umpc5x271.png?width=910&format=png&auto=webp&s=3829e979f085bac25fb0b00992d14d45e4fc5505)
|
||||
|
||||
GME 1/4/2021 - 6/2/2021, Log Base 10 Scale
|
||||
|
||||
In the middle of work, but too excited not to send this out. I can comment more later, but yesssssssss gammmmmaaaa!!!!!
|
||||
|
||||
copy/paste explanations from prior posts below for more explanation:
|
||||
|
||||
My work is built on the idea that the market is largely unpredictable, but one particular kind of behavior is certain - hedgies like to hedge. It's written into their algorithms. Specifically, they like to delta hedge and gamma hedge. This work tries to profit on this one particular type of buying/selling behavior. I have a little data dictionary at the bottom if you need a refresher on terminology.
|
||||
|
||||
- Delta Neutral: price that creates a total market delta of 0 across all GME options (all expiration dates) for a given date. General observation is it acts like a theoretical floor (although the price can go lower, as seen in February). My theory is that as the underlying approaches the delta neutral, call options go on sale. As people buy call options, MM have to buy the stocks which increases the price. Most stocks like to hang out above the delta neutral, some dip below and create pressure that can shoot them back over the delta neutral (like what happened in February), and some like to hang out below (like the VIX).
|
||||
|
||||
- Gamma Neutral: price that creates a total market gamma of 0 across all GME options (all expiration dates) for a given date. General observation is it acts like support/resistance between the delta neutral and the underlying, and typically bounces around between the two prices for most plan (like we have seen with GME since April). It also goes crazy in periods of high volatility (as you can see by the infinite spikes).
|
||||
|
||||
- Max Pain: price that creates largest loss for option buyers and largest gain for option sellers. This is a controversial topic because underlying prices can drift towards this point. There are typically large areas around the max pain that doesn't make a lot of difference to the profits for option buyer/sellers. It can be used to help gauge where the equilibrium of the options data is, but there is often a wide range around this price point that does not meaningfully affect MM profits.
|
||||
|
||||
Disclaimer: I'm just an actuary that likes to play with options data and builds models to trade for a hobby. I have no experience trading professionally or offering any advice to anyone. Nothing is certain in trading. It's all probabilities and what increases/decreases your chance at a profit. This is just one indicator for one type of price movement, and there are many other indicators that can help you make investment decisions.
|
@ -0,0 +1,101 @@
|
||||
Gamma Bombs All Over the Market Today!
|
||||
======================================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/yelyah2](https://www.reddit.com/user/yelyah2/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nrwp82/gamma_bombs_all_over_the_market_today/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
|
||||
[Education 👨🏫 | Data 🔢](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22Education%20%F0%9F%91%A8%E2%80%8D%F0%9F%8F%AB%20%7C%20Data%20%F0%9F%94%A2%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||
TLDR: Gamma spikes were firing all over the market today like little bombs, all while the market was tanking... The GME gamma spike from yesterday came back down, but we have a lot to look forward to! Not much reading. Lots of pretty graphs to look at!
|
||||
|
||||
Before I dig in... I just have to give a big thank you to this community. This is really special place, filled with the best people, and I'm really proud to be a part of it and contribute however I can.
|
||||
|
||||
*Chart Update*
|
||||
|
||||
Here's a follow-up to my post from yesterday: [Gamma Signals Firing Again](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nqwtms/gamma_signals_firing_again/)
|
||||
|
||||
I expanded the GME chart below to further back to 11/2/2020, so you can see more of the spikes as GME starts to move up, and you can see what I mean when I say they start coming in clusters.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/hg45aqzr46371.png?width=910&format=png&auto=webp&s=54a5121e3391051e3f800512cc9f56dfcaecd2a2)
|
||||
|
||||
GME Log Base 10 Scale, 11/2/2020 - 6/3/2021
|
||||
|
||||
I didn't share this with you yesterday, because I didn't want to distract from GME, but yesterday there were gamma neutral spikes happening all over the market, like little bombs going off. I shared these with [u/Criand](https://www.reddit.com/u/Criand/) last night, and we were wondering if the recent wind-down rules coming into effect was starting a little chain reaction. Then today, the whole market was red! I'm not sure what it means yet, but feels like the market is becoming more and more unstable.
|
||||
|
||||
Here are a few of the charts from the tickers that were also set off for today. Usually, there's like... one or two a day, and I copied 15 below!
|
||||
|
||||
But first, a quick refresher!
|
||||
|
||||
*Quick Recap*
|
||||
|
||||
My work is built on the idea that the market is largely unpredictable, but one particular kind of behavior is certain - hedgies like to hedge. It's written into their algorithms. Specifically, they like to delta hedge and gamma hedge. This work tries to profit on this one particular type of buying/selling behavior. I have a little data dictionary at the bottom if you need a refresher on terminology.
|
||||
|
||||
*Back to the graphs...*
|
||||
|
||||
Reminder, this is not to distract you from GME, just to show you what I mean when I say it was strange that these were all firing at the same time today.
|
||||
|
||||
I don't know how... or even if... these tickers are all connected, but they definitely do share some interesting timing/patterns.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/52bmcwgq56371.png?width=910&format=png&auto=webp&s=25e650dcebecc63e513c6a741e5235da31fcddad)
|
||||
|
||||
AMC 1/4/2021 - 6/3/2021
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/pl4cqly7g6371.png?width=910&format=png&auto=webp&s=65d7d72d6f2ce01c09e29d93824f8814a6b08958)
|
||||
|
||||
ABNB 1/4/2021 - 6/3/2021
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/ggp9r0h466371.png?width=910&format=png&auto=webp&s=ae5be1250eda029ec639fd75814cb9ba3e7a3a14)
|
||||
|
||||
RKT 1/4/2021
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/f7syzd0zf6371.png?width=910&format=png&auto=webp&s=4c75c9850d95f4438843baa38a8fcc081ddd2378)
|
||||
|
||||
BLNK 1/4/2021 - 6/3/2021
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/mu4aiuz2g6371.png?width=910&format=png&auto=webp&s=2fce5a6af885c0258daca54c833fe8d6b70d8e64)
|
||||
|
||||
LMND 1/4/2021 - 6/3/2021
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/pw56e3b776371.png?width=910&format=png&auto=webp&s=e26a1ac31911646be8ed66853fc660e8feb67165)
|
||||
|
||||
FUBO 1/4/2021 - 6/3/2021
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/rmbrwdcc76371.png?width=910&format=png&auto=webp&s=b9ca5760688cf194e26d62c8b6c551267cfaa67c)
|
||||
|
||||
PLAY 1/4/2021 - 6/3/2021
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/9zdhg0rf76371.png?width=910&format=png&auto=webp&s=6325b7f3e95913e820acf5ab69b131330922c2d0)
|
||||
|
||||
CCIV 1/4/2021 - 6/3/2021
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/b9ng41yne6371.png?width=910&format=png&auto=webp&s=4d81ace4143a8e683459e8ecc5b83f0fe15e2ff1)
|
||||
|
||||
BBBY 1/4/2021 - 6/3/2021
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/ekt4974te6371.png?width=910&format=png&auto=webp&s=ae3ccd4c5b983cd94f23c4ad96e78166779dc410)
|
||||
|
||||
TLRY 1/4/2021 - 6/3/2021
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/vd4bsp0ye6371.png?width=910&format=png&auto=webp&s=d56b5d48a6f350f2c4798c68e871576ca87cda29)
|
||||
|
||||
NVAX 1/4/2021 - 6/3/2021
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/klv2kiq1f6371.png?width=910&format=png&auto=webp&s=9fcfc574683e383bb710bd646623a9982884c4da)
|
||||
|
||||
WKHS 1/4/2021 - 6/3/2021
|
||||
|
||||
Again, eyes on the prize. I doubled down on my GME stocks today, and I have no doubt these tickers are just the warm-up act for the big show. There are six new tickers firing tomorrow from my top 140, down from 15 in my top 140 today. Still a lot more than usual though, and I'm exciting to see what happens!
|
||||
|
||||
*Data Dictionary*
|
||||
|
||||
- Delta Neutral: price that creates a total market delta of 0 across all GME options (all expiration dates) for a given date. General observation is it acts like a theoretical floor (although the price can go lower, as seen in February). My theory is that as the underlying approaches the delta neutral, call options go on sale. As people buy call options, MM have to buy the stocks which increases the price. Most stocks like to hang out above the delta neutral, some dip below and create pressure that can shoot them back over the delta neutral (like what happened in February), and some like to hang out below (like the VIX).
|
||||
|
||||
- Gamma Neutral: price that creates a total market gamma of 0 across all GME options (all expiration dates) for a given date. General observation is it acts like support/resistance between the delta neutral and the underlying, and typically bounces around between the two prices for most plan (like we have seen with GME since April). It also goes crazy in periods of high volatility (as you can see by the infinite spikes).
|
||||
|
||||
- Max Pain: price that creates largest loss for option buyers and largest gain for option sellers. This is a controversial topic because underlying prices can drift towards this point. There are typically large areas around the max pain that doesn't make a lot of difference to the profits for option buyer/sellers. It can be used to help gauge where the equilibrium of the options data is, but there is often a wide range around this price point that does not meaningfully affect MM profits.
|
||||
|
||||
Disclaimer: I'm just a person that likes to play with options data and builds models to trade for a hobby. I have no experience trading professionally or offering any advice to anyone. Nothing is certain in trading. It's all probabilities and what increases/decreases your chance at a profit. This is just one indicator for one type of price movement, and there are many other indicators that can help you make investment decisions.
|
@ -0,0 +1,127 @@
|
||||
A Mind Map To Help Follow The Money
|
||||
===================================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/draygon_media](https://www.reddit.com/user/draygon_media/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/n4j3zo/a_mind_map_to_help_follow_the_money/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
|
||||
[DD 👨🔬](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22DD%20%F0%9F%91%A8%E2%80%8D%F0%9F%94%AC%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/w6nodjdny4x61.png?width=1838&format=png&auto=webp&s=8420c3fc3049305457c1c506d674072804fec49f)
|
||||
|
||||
The overview! Click the link below to look closer!
|
||||
|
||||
edit for: Thank you all so much for the awards, upvotes, and support!! You are all so amazing
|
||||
|
||||
This is not FA... I do not advise doing anything based on this information... I am just a person who likes to look at the big picture. What better way to look at the big picture than with a mind map?!
|
||||
|
||||
Click here - - ->>>> <http://go.bubbl.us/b7f901/25d0?/The-Loop>
|
||||
|
||||
This is an ever evolving mind map, and made by 1 person at the moment. I have done my best to cross check information, so PLEASE take it with a grain of salt. But know that there is something very interesting within the mess.
|
||||
|
||||
TLDR: Just read it please... I am providing a graphic and all to follow along with. Without the following information, the mind map WON'T make much sense.
|
||||
|
||||
So... Let's dive in.
|
||||
|
||||
My goal here is to demonstrate how big this ALL goes. While we short sightedly focus on AMC and GME, because it is the big thing at the moment; we must look at who is in on this. But, let's go back in time for just a moment.
|
||||
|
||||
The year? 2008... This was a big moment of bailouts, and guess who got one of the BIGGEST bailouts.
|
||||
|
||||
AIG
|
||||
|
||||
(<https://www.investopedia.com/articles/economics/09/american-investment-group-aig-bailout.asp#:~:text=The%20amount%20the%20U.S.%20government,79.9%25%20of%20the%20company's%20equity.&text=The%20Federal%20Reserve%20and%20the,to%20an%20estimated%20%24150%20billion>.)
|
||||
|
||||
"At its peak, AIG had a market capitalization four times the size of Lehman at the latter's highest. However, AIG was bailed out not purely because of its size, according to Antoncic. "It's not just the size that matters; it is the interconnectedness," she said. If AIG failed, it would trigger a domino effect globally as the insurance giant had provided protections worth more than half a trillion dollars, including $300 billion to banks in the U.S. and in Europe. "Imagine if AIG went away. All of these banks would have had enormous regulatory capital problems. It would have been an extremely systemic macro event." (<https://knowledge.wharton.upenn.edu/article/the-good-reasons-why-lehman-failed/#:~:text=%E2%80%9CLehman%20basically%20put%20the%20nail,its%20size%2C%20according%20to%20Antoncic>.)
|
||||
|
||||
AIG was chosen to be saved, which would in turn cause Lehman Brothers to go under. This led me down the track of who was invested into AIG currently.
|
||||
|
||||
(<https://my.valic.com/ARO/FundPerformance/Tables.aspx?q=KdNpYAGhdNqIJMQMo7Ew+NkW3KFlOYMTjze/DCmGOiWNUIE9RU3Z9coV6V4mx1/5bt/DhxioxzfifeKvzAiX8rvTcd+aoQRjp/kUTrAIBSkwP0J/NmJQzoeWXlhXXK8p8nk7tKyozrqUIUh8ZvrcKXmP32YoRwjW76AT3AYFxEYeid51ONkOxpas+2gAhCIUE//sXdK/04Gxuh5BOiomoRZx4uAp1F8FQqarTLOtrKBtCrOphygnGm2NXEqg+KXC>)
|
||||
|
||||
Through the mind map, I have condensed this information. But you are MORE than welcome to sift through it as well!
|
||||
|
||||
You will find some of the big names that we are currently in a situation in as we speak!
|
||||
|
||||
Here is the color code surrounding AIG:
|
||||
|
||||
Purple- I have not dug into at the moment
|
||||
|
||||
Pink- Institution that keeps popping up, and I am keeping an eye on.
|
||||
|
||||
Dark Red- Currently have information, but have not been able to add it
|
||||
|
||||
Black- Main leads that I wanted to look into
|
||||
|
||||
(Vanguard, BlackRock, JPMorgan, Morgan Stanley, SunAmerica, Goldman Sachs, Wells Fargo, BMO, T. Rowe Price)
|
||||
|
||||
What I began to find while diving into the 13D holdings was very interesting. (This is different than the 13f filings) *information taken from fintel ownership section, trying to confirm against Bloomberg as soon as possible!)
|
||||
|
||||
As you can see, Vanguard has 13D filings in:
|
||||
|
||||
BlackRock
|
||||
|
||||
AIG
|
||||
|
||||
Morgan Stanley
|
||||
|
||||
Goldman Sachs
|
||||
|
||||
JPMorgan
|
||||
|
||||
Ameriprise (check out where it leads to)
|
||||
|
||||
Janus Henderson (Another one that leads to the same place)
|
||||
|
||||
BlackRock:
|
||||
|
||||
Morgan Stanley
|
||||
|
||||
Goldman Sachs
|
||||
|
||||
JPMorgan
|
||||
|
||||
AIG
|
||||
|
||||
The other grey boxes surrounding the banks indicates corporations who HAVE 13D filings for the institution.
|
||||
|
||||
Morgan Stanley was in interesting one to me, since this is the one I ended up focusing a lot on given their standing with AMC. This is where I found quite the loop in investing.
|
||||
|
||||
Morgan Stanley is in AMC > BlackRock is invested into Morgan Stanley > Vanguard has a good size holding in BlackRock> BlackRock is ALSO invested into Vanguard's ETF's> Vanguard and BlackRock also have holdings in AMC and GME>AMC and GME are HELD in ETF's that are owned by Vanguard and BlackRock (along with many others).
|
||||
|
||||
This is just ONE loop that I came across that I found fascinating.
|
||||
|
||||
Are you still with me? Try to follow the lines of connection on the mind map.
|
||||
|
||||
The orange boxes around GME are the 13D filings, and the green boxes around AMC are their 13D filings. (Again, not 13F's)... There are some in here that I am STILL trying to verify because I am getting conflicting information from various sources. Most of these have been checked through Bloomberg, and this will ALL be updated as I find more! Check out the various investors... see any INTERESTING institutions?
|
||||
|
||||
You can see that by just looking at the investors, that there are 3 connecting points:
|
||||
|
||||
Dimensional Fund Advisors LP, BlackRock, and Vanguard.
|
||||
|
||||
"But there has to be more connecting points, right?"
|
||||
|
||||
I am happy you asked... Why YES! Yes there is!
|
||||
|
||||
This takes me back to February, when I (and all apes who noticed) the charta for AMC and GME were moving in the same manner. I started diving into the research as to what would cause this. My fun friends that I have been tracking since... THE ETF'S!
|
||||
|
||||
The ETF bubbles you see have been increased and decreased since this inception due to the increase or decrease of ETF's AMC and GME are held in. There are many of these ETF's that hold other favorites to watch as well (Apple, Tesla, Microsoft... you get the picture). On days that GME and AMC start to move the same way, I tend to watch if Apple, Tesla, and/or other meme/tech stocks who seem to move similarly.
|
||||
|
||||
Usually, they do.
|
||||
|
||||
Why is that you may ask...
|
||||
|
||||
Well you see, there are 21... yes 21 ETF's that hold both AMC and GME... and the one I tend to keep a close eye on is the Russel 2000 ETF's with Vanguard.
|
||||
|
||||
In my digging around, I confirmed that this was the one to watch, because our dear friend Morgan Stanley. (I told you they were one to watch)
|
||||
|
||||
In February, Morgan Stanley reported a 671.27% increase in ownership. (<https://fintel.io/so/us/vrtix/morgan-stanley>)
|
||||
|
||||
I will continue to monitor this one for sure!
|
||||
|
||||
I still have a TON of work to do with different connections, and I will release part 2 once that is finished. Part 2 will contain more ETF holdings by institutions, information on the three institutions at the top (and where they are tying into this) as well as any other pertinent information I think is needed.
|
||||
|
||||
Part 3... I am looking into the housing market with all of this... but that may be a bit depending on time!
|
||||
|
||||
I hope you enjoyed my findings, and feel free to dive deeper into it! If you have information you want me to add or look into let me know!
|
@ -0,0 +1,101 @@
|
||||
Infinite Loop Part 2 and Part 3
|
||||
===============================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/draygon_media](https://www.reddit.com/user/draygon_media/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/navdxu/infinite_loop_part_2_and_part_3/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
|
||||
[DD 👨🔬](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22DD%20%F0%9F%91%A8%E2%80%8D%F0%9F%94%AC%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/om4eohkucqy61.png?width=1534&format=png&auto=webp&s=704017fd96e28f8e3e54d81cf7e14ca3b7c0c16a)
|
||||
|
||||
The beast is growing!
|
||||
|
||||
Thank you everyone for the love and support!!! I am so happy to see people are able to understand the mess we are seeing!!
|
||||
|
||||
The Infinite Loop pt. 2 and 3!
|
||||
|
||||
*The regular stuff: this is not financial advice, I am not an advisor, please take this with a grain of salt, research it more yourself... yadda yadda.. On to the good stuff*
|
||||
|
||||
Here it is guys... most of part 2 and some of part 3!
|
||||
|
||||
*If you have not read Part 1 here it is- <https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/n4j3zo/a_mind_map_to_help_follow_the_money/>
|
||||
|
||||
**LINK TO THE MAP** <http://go.bubbl.us/b7f901/25d0?/The-Loop>
|
||||
|
||||
TLDR: Bearish Side is pretty difficult to find! I put in what I could of Citadel, and people really don't seem to want to do much with them! Housing Bubble is growing... take a look! Other than that.. you know the drill! Reading holds the key to the map! (Starting to feel like Charlie... "Who is Pepe Silvia?")
|
||||
|
||||
As I said previously, this is an ongoing mind map, and the more I research and dig around, the more will be added to this!
|
||||
|
||||
Let's dive in!
|
||||
|
||||
The good news:
|
||||
|
||||
I have been able to lock down Citadel, and where they are at in the map. I have found quite a few institutions have 13F filings for Citadel, but no one actually wants to have any ownership of them. So far Wells Fargo, JP Morgan and Bank of America are the ones that are taking a chance on them ( at least from what I have found..). I have also found the 17 broker/dealers that utilize APEX Clearing as their clearinghouse! Interestingly enough, Robinhood does not fall on this list. I will be adding the other broker/dealers and their clearing houses soon.
|
||||
|
||||
Some of the names that stuck out to me are M1 finance, Webull, WealthSimple, Ally, and Firstrade
|
||||
|
||||
I have not completed the ones who have a PFOF with Citadel, but it's coming. (I am only 1 person).
|
||||
|
||||
If you cruise on up to the purple/red bubbles you will see that Citadel has not only shares bought in Vanguard and Blackrock, but they have also decided to place options on them as well. Doing what hedgies do best, I guess.
|
||||
|
||||
Moving on up to the north side of Citadel's bubble, we see 1 13 D/A filing (there are more, but not relevant to this...). I found that they have a little bit of control ownership in Susquehanna! The same one that is up with our good friend GAMESTOP!
|
||||
|
||||
Citadel is truly the only one I could pin down to being at the center of the mess going on, and the other hedge funds do not have any major link to them.
|
||||
|
||||
THIS IS A GOOD THING!
|
||||
|
||||
The more I tried to find the bearish side against AMC and GME, the more I found that they had even MORE backing on the bullish side.
|
||||
|
||||
At the very top, where my random banks were, we see Charles Schwab has 1.23 Million shares of Gamestop and 1.77 Million shares of AMC. They also have 13F filings for Vanguard and BlackRock. Moving over to the left I found that Bank of America had 13 G/A filings from Berkshire Hathaway (a whopping 1.032 BILLION Shares), Vanguard, and BlackRock. BofA also had investments in BlackRock and Vanguard (along with Citadel and Point72). There are others, but this map would NEVER end.
|
||||
|
||||
Deutsche Bank had a 13 D/A filing from BlackRock and had a 13F filing for Citadel.
|
||||
|
||||
From what I kept seeing, MOST of the banking institutions have some form of investment into Citadel! Concerning? Not really... Because the almost all that has been invested is so tiny that the banks may only feel a slight pinprick from their investment, in the event Citadel ceases to exist.
|
||||
|
||||
The powerhouses are proving to be on the right side of history this time, which is good for economic purposes.
|
||||
|
||||
Or are they?
|
||||
|
||||
Part 3.
|
||||
|
||||
If you notice, there are two new bubbles coming from Vanguard: Invesco and BlackStone.
|
||||
|
||||
We know Invesco Kenna... But who is BlackStone?
|
||||
|
||||
I am SO happy you have asked that question! Let's head down to the Housing Bubble that is forming.
|
||||
|
||||
I am so thankful for my husband for helping to piece a lot of this together! His background? He is a realtor himself and enjoys tracking the market! He started noticing some dangerous trends within the market itself and wanted to dig more into it! He started this research a couple months ago and found that we are gearing towards ANOTHER 08 situation.
|
||||
|
||||
People are taking out more subprime mortgages recently, and the fascinating thing is... that it is for rentals! Rental homes have a little more leniency on borrowing since it is for income, and the big investment institutions figured that out. BlackStone SOLD the FIRST single family rental securitization in 2013 for $479 Million!
|
||||
|
||||
I Could do an ENTIRE write up, but my husband did an EXCELLENT job dictating his points ON the map... So, I will leave you be for a moment to follow the chart!
|
||||
|
||||
The only Key you need for that section:
|
||||
|
||||
Subprime Mortgages:
|
||||
|
||||
Green- STILL AVAILABLE (one way or another, it could be tricky... but there are lenders for these)
|
||||
|
||||
Red- NO LONGER AVAILABLE
|
||||
|
||||
Welcome Back!! Hope you found that interesting!
|
||||
|
||||
The last thing for this DD is the Housing Insurance Bubble!
|
||||
|
||||
A few months ago, we saw whispers of notable names from the '08 era looking into a bubble revolving around homeowner's insurance. The idea was that Climate Change affected zip codes would see an increase in their premium costs. In turn, the monthly cost would be substantially higher than what the owner originally agreed upon. Between the pandemic, and people normally taking out the max they can borrow, their shoestring budget becomes even thinner! Therefore, while interest on the mortgages were low, people in areas where fires, hurricanes, floods and/or tornados occur would see their payments fluctuate drastically! The unfortunate side effect will be people being unable to make their payments, and we could see more people being foreclosed on!
|
||||
|
||||
If you will go to the bubble just south of the CDO/BTO web, you will find my area where I am starting to gather article and will be posting stats for updating purposes!
|
||||
|
||||
Please note: ALL OF THIS APPLIES to commercial real estate as well as residential!
|
||||
|
||||
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
|
||||
|
||||
Thank you for taking the time to read through everything and follow along! As far as I can see we are heading towards something pretty incredible... and history books will talk about this for centuries!
|
||||
|
||||
Be kind to one another!
|
||||
|
||||
Lastly... TO. THE. MOON!!
|
@ -0,0 +1,127 @@
|
||||
Everything Superstonk Knows About Naked Shorting - A Definitive Guide
|
||||
=====================================================================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/sharkbaitlol](https://www.reddit.com/user/sharkbaitlol/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nt0ojl/everything_superstonk_knows_about_naked_shorting/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
|
||||
[🚀 Moderator 🚀](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22%F0%9F%9A%80%20Moderator%20%F0%9F%9A%80%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||
Hi apes; sharkbaitlol here again chomping away at MSM this time. This is a quick post surrounding a particular news station confirming the concept of naked short selling (for anyone [out of the loop](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nspmql/naked_shorts_yeah/)); while this is hilarious, it's something the apes here at Superstonk know all too well as we've been researching this for a while now!
|
||||
|
||||
Over the last few months, we've had fantastic DD written on the subject and even had AMA guests come on to speak about it. The great news is, that this topic has picked up so much speed that we even see it trending on Twitter right now across various parts of the world.
|
||||
|
||||
With that being said this serves as a great time for us to showcase all the research apes here have worked on over the last several months. If you feel there's a great thread that should be included below (that I've missed); please feel free to comment and I'll edit it in.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/o0nbqlzlfh371.png?width=1091&format=png&auto=webp&s=e9e7cb830ed3490fd11adf58b87db6079c3469ef)
|
||||
|
||||
the world is taking notice
|
||||
|
||||
Lets start off with a text book definition of naked short selling:
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/yecxm5507h371.png?width=611&format=png&auto=webp&s=59d8c9f2e09a1cd46ed532814ccc7ced06ae2a67)
|
||||
|
||||
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/n/nakedshorting.asp
|
||||
|
||||
Essentially it is the practice of shorting a stock (which is totally legal), but without the shares on hand (this is what's illegal). This is equivalent to spending shares you do not have; this becomes a slippery slope to create scenarios like what we see with GME where [140% of the float was shorted.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/GameStop_short_squeeze) This shouldn't be possible as it suggests that an incremental 40% of shares (more than exist) were fabricated. This can be put on the same level of severity as printing out currency.
|
||||
|
||||
This process artificially increases the amount of shares in circulation without the affected companies approval; devaluing shares significantly. If you own mutual funds, ETFs, retirement plans or straight up stocks this should be a concern for you as these players (naked short hedge funds, financial institutions) are stealing from you. It's through this process that they killed off Toys'r'us, Sears and thousands of other companies.
|
||||
|
||||
Some great resources from over the last few months:
|
||||
|
||||
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
|
||||
|
||||
AMAs With Wes Christian
|
||||
|
||||
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
|
||||
|
||||
Wes Christian joined us recently for two amazing AMAs!
|
||||
|
||||
Just as a reminder for his background;
|
||||
|
||||
> *Wes Christian is a Texas attorney with* [*an accent as big as his list of accomplishments*](http://www.csj-law.com/attorneys/jchristian.html)*!* *His primary focus in the last 11 years has been suing Wall Street for fraud and is a* *US legal expert on naked short selling.*
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/ragcur5s7h371.png?width=170&format=png&auto=webp&s=66da029065ebe745b0b671c1e0f778cf7c3e3bff)
|
||||
|
||||
- Catch him in part 1 in an interview with the brilliant [u/dlauer](https://www.reddit.com/u/dlauer/) : <https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2rJujnpKiqM>
|
||||
|
||||
- And part 2 with heavyweight investigative journalist Lucy Komisar: <https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q8-JO3g5bm4>
|
||||
|
||||
I highly suggest watching the AMAs to get an insight into the financial world; but here are some great quotes from Wes himself during the interviews;
|
||||
|
||||
> *Lucy:* *"Well, what was going on? What tactics were they using?"*
|
||||
>
|
||||
> *Wes:* *"Let's see back then what they did is they really naked short sold, what I would call small cap companies, bulletin board companies, not NASDAQ companies, not NYSE Amex companies, bulletin board companies, and back then those companies always needed capital. So they would enter into the the bad guys would enter into a convertible debenture, that is a basically a legal note a promise to pay money. In an exchange for that the note would say we the person who's owed the money can take shares, or we can take cash for payment. Well, the bad guys would always take shares. And so what would happen is the company the public company would sign the note because I needed the money. Because the people said, Oh, we'd love your company, we want to invest, we really think you've got great technology will loan you this money. In fact, we'll even let you repay us in shares with the company thought that's a winning proposition. Because my God, I don't have to part with cash, I'm gonna get cash in the door, it's great. But in reality, what that was, was a predator, or predator who was coming in getting inside information and loaning you money. And at the time, let's say that this company stock which was internet law library was making it up, but it's close $8 a share. And at the time, the amount of shares that would have to be given to the person who the note was made payable to would have been, let's say, a million shares. And it that time the stock started going down and down and down, and the volume of the sales went up and up and up. Of course, as we know, loosely, anytime sales, exceed demand or supply exceeds demand, the price is going to go down. So what was happening is the mission of the bad guys was to loan you two and a half million dollars, and be entitled, at least at that time to a million shares. So by the time sorry that they got through with you, you would have to give them 20 million shares."*
|
||||
|
||||
Shark's take: It wasn't always about going after big companies; Wall Street's appetites have grown over time as Wes suggests.
|
||||
|
||||
> *Lucy:* *"but just to just to intervene a little bit just to explain what it means. If you make a loan, and I think in this case for Sedona, it was two and a half million, you have to pay back, maybe it was 3 million in shares, but its shares and you think everything's going up, you're getting this loan is going to grow the business. But if they knock the share price down with naked short selling, 3 million worth of shares, may be the whole company, because the shares now are worth what a 10th a 20th. So that the number is important. $3 million worth of shares, gives them the whole company. And that's that's the deal. And that's how it"*
|
||||
>
|
||||
> ***Wes: "****That is exactly how it works. It is a way when you think about it to take the company over. Over the years, we've done 20 of these cases and and so and we're getting ready to file a couple more, we just found one in the southern district as you know the Harrington case. Basically, it is a way to either destroy the company and bury the dead bodies that the stock certificates that don't exist, or it's a way to steal the technology. I've seen it both ways. If they really like your technology, they will go in and right before the company Totally dies, they'll put it in bankruptcy, buy the assets out of bankruptcy for what they're owed, and go from there. So you're right. Their mission is to start out with 3 million shares and ultimately you owe 100 million shares in order to pay your two and a half million dollars worth of debt."*
|
||||
|
||||
Shark's take: This has been ongoing for such a long time that it no longer a new or shocking concept. The process of a naked short company takedown is well documented, and understood. They'll drag the company into significant debt before killing it off.
|
||||
|
||||
> ***Dave: "****So I think there are two things that I've seen on the on the subreddit, consistently, and that I think, you know, might be of interest to dive a little deeper into. And so, you know, we've talked about this a lot, and we've thrown the terms around today. But maybe, maybe it would be great to get a little deeper into it, which is the idea of synthetic shares and, and failures, right. And so maybe if you if you don't mind just going a little deeper into that dynamic. You know, what is that mechanism that that that these firms are using to create these synthetic shares? And what have you seen in the past?"*
|
||||
>
|
||||
> *Wes: "Yeah, and again, I'm going to qualify that my answer, but to make it clear that I'm only using what's in the regulatory actions and out in the public marketplace, because again, I can't use any particular from a specific case. What I'm seeing is, is the creation of futuristic instruments. They've been called rehypothecation instruments they've been called repost certificates. They've been called putting a put in a call together. They've been called reverse conversions. There's many fancy names for them, but I call them I call them the Popeye and Whitby principle, okay. It's like, give me the hamburger today, and I'll pay you next Wednesday. Okay, except next Wednesday, incidentally, never comes okay. So So ultimately, you know, that principle needs to not be allowed because ultimately it culminates in the dissemination of false information. it culminates in that false information comes in several places. David's a great question you pose. Number one, they'll show it to the compliance department because Don't forget, each one of these firms has a compliance department. And that compliance department gets a knock on the door from the regulator or from the auditor that says, hey, what about this Charlie or Sally? And ultimately say, Oh, we got to fix that. Okay. And so they go to the broker and say, What Is this okay? Because Don't forget The proprietary trading desk is a whole section of that firm, there are traders that do nothing, but do prop trading. And so ultimately, they then say, well, we got to, we got to figure this out. So they'll go create this, you know, as to members in the conspiracy that puts in the calls. Or if they're short, they'll get a friend of theirs to sell them a bunch of shares, which, incidentally, are short also, but they'll mark them long. So guess what happens when they when the naked short seller is has this contingent liability on the brokerage firms books, he calls a buddy sell me some long shares, he sells in the long shares, well, that that cancels out net, magically, the number of long shares he got sold, netted out his his naked short to zero, he's he's all good, until the compliance guy comes knocking again. So the mission is to kick the can down the road kick the can down the road. So basically, you know, at the end of the day, it's creating a futuristic instrument it to to, you know, deal with the option market, the repossession or repo? hapa, hapa, rehypothecation. market. And anything else that is a futures contract? It's basically a futures contract to do something, in some form representative of shares that never gets consummated."*
|
||||
|
||||
Shark's take: We start venturing into the concept of rehypothecation when we enter into the realm of naked short selling. Of course these "synthetic shares" must be coming from somewhere. Wes confirms that the goal for these naked shorters is to keep kicking the can down the road infinitely. Short hedge funds just keep saying "I'll pay you next Wednesday" and continue saying it every week. Eventually the company gets killed off in this process as this can take months/years. With everything that's happening now, we hope it'll spur change.
|
||||
|
||||
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
|
||||
|
||||
AMA With Dr. Trimbath
|
||||
|
||||
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
|
||||
|
||||
Dr. Trimbath has been an incredible ally to the ape initiative;
|
||||
|
||||
A quick blurb about her incredible work:
|
||||
|
||||
> *" Susanne Trimbath holds a Ph.D. in Economics from New York University and received her MBA from Golden Gate University. Prior to forming STP Advisory Services, Dr. Trimbath was Senior Research Economist in Capital Studies at Milken Institute (Santa Monica, CA) and Senior Advisor on the Russian Capital Markets Project (USAID-funded) with KPMG in Moscow and St. Petersburg. She previously served as a manager in operations at Depository Trust Company in New York and the Pacific Clearing Corporation in San Francisco; she started her career in financial services operations at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. Since 1989, Dr. Trimbath has taught economics and finance in university graduate and undergraduate programs as adjunct, associate and full-time professor. In 2009, she was certified to teach in the distance-learning environment by both Bellevue University (Nebraska) and University of Liverpool (UK, by Laureate International, Amsterdam). "*
|
||||
|
||||
You can watch the AMA [here](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fGVY2Kco8ng); I also highly recommend her book called "Naked, Short and Greedy" goes into MUCH deeper detail as to the oversight of what went on at the DTC (Depository Trust Company) during her time there as senior management. This is the same security depository which the stock market sits on. It is a large component of how naked shorting is allowed to exist in the current landscape.
|
||||
|
||||
Fellow mod [u/atobitt](https://www.reddit.com/u/atobitt/) did a fantastic write up on the very topic of how the DTC has allowed this mess to happen in the first place. Highly recommend reading through his "[A House of Cards](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/mvk5dv/a_house_of_cards_part_1/)" series.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/t0q55lyxyh371.png?width=1526&format=png&auto=webp&s=57b0a5dc5081fb925a6e5607e2187181790d6310)
|
||||
|
||||
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
|
||||
|
||||
Other fantastic threads by apes:
|
||||
|
||||
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
|
||||
|
||||
- " [Explain w/ Crayons Series: What is Naked Shorting? Indicators GME is Being Naked Short](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nk40b6/explain_w_crayons_series_what_is_naked_shorting/) " by [u/AaronJamesArq](https://www.reddit.com/u/AaronJamesArq/)
|
||||
|
||||
- Great powerpoint type formatting that quickly and easily explains the concept of naked short selling and how it relates to meme stocks
|
||||
|
||||
- " [The naked shorting scam revealed: lending of market maker privileges, the married put trade and why inflicting max pain will bleed them dry](https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/comments/mgj0j1/the_naked_shorting_scam_revealed_lending_of/) " by [u/broccaaaa](https://www.reddit.com/u/broccaaaa/)
|
||||
|
||||
- Amazing deepdive into how the naked short selling scam may work with some intensive mathematical research done around the topic.
|
||||
|
||||
- " [Reason why they didn't speak about naked shorting](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/n6qilq/reason_why_they_didnt_speak_about_naked_shorting/)" by [u/Badgerv12](https://www.reddit.com/u/Badgerv12/)
|
||||
|
||||
- Further proving why a slip up on news stations may be important. It's one of the first few times it's heard from MSM them confirming the concept.
|
||||
|
||||
- " [This is HUGE NEWS: Investment Banking Company Jefferies suspends short sells and naked shorts on $GME](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nrgdlo/this_is_huge_news_investment_banking_company/) " by [u/FDAz](https://www.reddit.com/u/FDAz/)
|
||||
|
||||
- News suggesting that multiple financial institutions trying to potentially control the naked shorting issue.
|
||||
|
||||
- " [Naked Short Sellers have set our cancer research back decades from their abusive short selling.](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/ndrjl8/naked_short_sellers_have_set_our_cancer_research/) " by [u/phoenixfenix](https://www.reddit.com/u/phoenixfenix/)
|
||||
|
||||
- The ugly reality of naked short selling and just how damaging it has been to the world historically.
|
||||
|
||||
- " [ELINA (Explain Like I'm Not Ape)](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/mwylrj/elina_explain_like_im_not_ape/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf) " by [u/writerofjots](https://www.reddit.com/u/writerofjots/)
|
||||
|
||||
- In-case you're still REALLY confused, this one does a good job breaking it down into the barebones.
|
||||
|
||||
Just to echo my statement on the daily thread, the mod team will be removing any further content referring to the reporter or the news station in question at this time to make room for the excellent research you all do. I urge you all to rely on your humanity (apemanity?) when discussing this further.
|
||||
|
||||
Please remember that the reporter is an individual as well; whether intentional or not, they should not be harassed. This paints a very negative image on the apes, and we're better than that.
|
||||
|
||||
Please feel free to retweet my post to get superstonk's voice out there! <https://twitter.com/u_sharkbaitlol/status/1401233432060076032>
|
||||
|
||||
With that being said, stay excellent to each other and stay hungry.
|
@ -0,0 +1,324 @@
|
||||
[1/3] The Ultimate DD guide to the moon!!. Crazy Melon
|
||||
======================================================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/sydneyfriendlycub](https://www.reddit.com/user/sydneyfriendlycub/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/comments/n2hgxq/13_the_ultimate_dd_guide_to_the_moon_crazy_melon/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
[🔬 DD 📊](https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/search?q=flair_name%3A%22%F0%9F%94%AC%20DD%20%F0%9F%93%8A%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||
Hey everyone!!! It's the crazy 🍉🍉🍉🍉 here!
|
||||
|
||||
In this posts (3 Parts) you will find my hypothesis of the entirety of Shitadel and friends Fuckery (Ken Griffin fully exposed!!).
|
||||
|
||||
Please make sure you read all 3 posts to fully understand and connect all the dots.
|
||||
|
||||
Will also explain GME situation and possible predictions of what's going to happen.
|
||||
|
||||
BUCKLE UP!!
|
||||
|
||||
This DD is fully connected and logical, due to the limited information provided to the public, I'll ask you to wear your Tin Hat time to time, take everything with a grain of salt and do your own research
|
||||
|
||||
I would love some feedback! If I'm wrong please correct me in a very nice and respectful way.
|
||||
|
||||
If this reading is too much, just BUY AND HODL!!!!
|
||||
|
||||
THIS IS FOR YOU MY APES!! None of this is financial advice. I'm a retarded ape playing with crayons and keys.
|
||||
|
||||
---------------------------------
|
||||
|
||||
Click on the links to go to PART 2 and 3
|
||||
|
||||
CONTENTS:
|
||||
|
||||
PART 1
|
||||
|
||||
- US DOLLAR BACKING
|
||||
|
||||
- OVERVIEW OF KENNY'S/SHITADEL'S FUCKERY EXPOSED!
|
||||
|
||||
- HOW IS KENNY WASHING THE MONEY?
|
||||
|
||||
- TRUST BONDS: The basket of bonds INFITINE MONEY GLITCH!!!
|
||||
|
||||
- BIG BANKS ARE HOLDINGS COMPANIES???? WHAT IS THAT?
|
||||
|
||||
[PART 2](https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/comments/n2hhhn/23_the_ultimate_dd_guide_to_the_moon_crazy_melon/)
|
||||
|
||||
- HOW AND WHY TO BANKRUPT COMPANIES
|
||||
|
||||
- QUICK RECAP MIXING GME IN:
|
||||
|
||||
- THE MASSIVE REAL ESTATE SCAM!
|
||||
|
||||
- KENNY SCAMMING AROUND THE WORLD
|
||||
|
||||
- WHAT HAPPENS AFTER THE COMPANY GOES BANKRUPT??
|
||||
|
||||
- THE PANDEMIC STIMULUS: The beginning of the end of Kenny
|
||||
|
||||
- KENNY'S FUCK UP!!
|
||||
|
||||
[PART 3](https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/comments/n2hjnk/33_the_ultimate_dd_guide_to_the_moon_crazy_melon/)
|
||||
|
||||
- THE ENDGAME: INEVITABLE! NO FUD
|
||||
|
||||
- SUMMARY
|
||||
|
||||
- TL;DR1:
|
||||
|
||||
- BURRY CONCERN: HYPERINFLATION
|
||||
|
||||
- LIBOR to SOFR
|
||||
|
||||
- TL;DR2 :
|
||||
|
||||
---------------------------
|
||||
|
||||
US DOLLAR BACKING
|
||||
|
||||
The US dollar backing system has changed from gold to oil and finally to [fiat](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/f/fiatmoney.asp).
|
||||
|
||||
Basically means the Federal Reserve can print "an almost unlimited amount of dollars" and they've been doing exactly that! 1/5th of the total dollars ever minted in the history of the US have been printed in the last year and a half. All that liquidity has been used by Kenny as part of his strategy.
|
||||
|
||||
---------------------------
|
||||
|
||||
OVERVIEW OF KENNY'S/SHITADEL'S FUCKERY EXPOSED!
|
||||
|
||||
More details and explanation of everything will be found as you keep reading!!
|
||||
|
||||
First we start with their relationship with retail brokerages (Us Ape GME owners), then we move on to even shadier things:
|
||||
|
||||
Retail brokerages send money/order flow to Citadel MM (Market Maker)
|
||||
|
||||
Shitadel take the money, buys the shares mainly through home mortgage and auto loan-funded/related ETFs (so it doesn't reflect positively on the price) then sell them through the main exchanges (the price is affected by a sell and tanks)
|
||||
|
||||
Kenny doesn't deliver the share to the broker/retail (the retail receives an IOU) and instead he borrows the share and sells it again on the main exchange to short (tanking the price again).
|
||||
|
||||
Kenny will use the same share and recycle it (borrowing and selling) many times creating multiple IOUs to brokers/retail (with one share sometimes producing 9-10 IOUs) My wild dreams say is 2000% the SI. That's just my crazy me, time will tell.
|
||||
|
||||
At the same time while shorting they will (Shitadel) [creates their own trust bonds](https://www.wiredupreport.com/2021/03/16/viral/citadel-issued-600m-worth-of-bbb-rated-bonds/) and ties those fake shares to those trust bonds as collateral, sells them (whoever buys this bonds hold the garbage), and gets a shit ton of money (remember, fake shares money).
|
||||
|
||||
THIS IS HIS INFINITE MONEY GLITCH AND SHITADEL SOURCE OF LIQUIDITY FOR EVERYTHING!!
|
||||
|
||||
I will explain more about this later on!!
|
||||
|
||||
Now Shitadel has a stupid amount of money, and what he needs to do? HE NEEDS TO WASH IT TO MAKE IT LEGITIMATE!!!
|
||||
|
||||
-------------------------
|
||||
|
||||
HOW IS KENNY WASHING THE MONEY?
|
||||
|
||||
With that money he is most likely doing shady things, in order to wash it and make it "LEGIT":
|
||||
|
||||
He might be using more methods but this are the ones I caught him off guard so far, I think we all have seen his fuckery!!
|
||||
|
||||
METHOD #1: buy real shares (a bit for themselves and also transactions from the brokers and MM, order flow).
|
||||
|
||||
They buy real shares to keep creating naked shares from them and recycling them to keep the machine running over and over.
|
||||
|
||||
They make transactions with other brokers and charge fees for that, making money for the books. Also the good old payment for order flow PFOF system RH loves.
|
||||
|
||||
Making money and also using it to wash the empty fake trust bonds (sometimes partially empty), that's where the money is for him!!
|
||||
|
||||
They're not just shorting GME, they short tons of other companies as well. Those shorts need to seem legitimate and have real money backing them up (trust bond money) so no margin call happens if the SEC comes looking. Real money backing it so it's "ALL LEGAL AND LEGITIMATE"
|
||||
|
||||
You know the drill! Boom Money Washed!
|
||||
|
||||
METHOD #2: Betting in the company knowing the result (manipulate the performance and outcome).
|
||||
|
||||
Bet on the companies performance (not only short betting, but also making calls and manipulating it up and down)
|
||||
|
||||
It's easy to bet if you can manipulate the outcome right?
|
||||
|
||||
Nice casino Kenny! Boom Money Washed!
|
||||
|
||||
METHOD #3: Move the money overseas by funding overseas companies
|
||||
|
||||
Fund companies overseas (together with other bank friends) and receive assets or Treasury bonds strips (T-bonds) as collateral (countries overseas have T-bonds to use as collateral for money) with interest rates of about 12%+!! Boom Money Washed!
|
||||
|
||||
He's making money on both sides of the trade, when giving the money he is making huge $$ in conversion exchange rates and fees, as well as when receiving the Collateral $$ for fees and exchange rates when it applies. Boom! *this money is legitimate now!*
|
||||
|
||||
<https://sec.report/Document/0001752724-21-087103/>
|
||||
|
||||
METHOD 4: Scoop all the real estate from bankrupted companies
|
||||
|
||||
[Scoop up all the real estate and assets](https://www.forbes.com/sites/amydobson/2019/09/19/billionaire-ken-griffin-adds-99-million-purchase-to-massive-real-estate-portfolio/amp/) that are left behind when the companies are bankrupt, buying the retail dirt cheap. That's why Kenny targets brick and mortar, imagine GME stores closing and Kenny buying those properties for pennies.
|
||||
|
||||
With real estate the scam is even bigger! I'll explain more after!
|
||||
|
||||
Boom Money Washed!
|
||||
|
||||
METHOD 5: Buy real estate and assets (art, gold and other tangibles)
|
||||
|
||||
With the real money made by selling his trust bonds, buy expensive houses
|
||||
|
||||
<https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.businessinsider.com/ken-griffin-most-expensive-home-ever-sold-us-nyc-penthouse-2019-1%3famp>
|
||||
|
||||
Expensive art
|
||||
|
||||
<https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cnbc.com/amp/2016/02/18/ken-griffin-spent-500-million-on-two-paintings-sources.html>
|
||||
|
||||
And any other valuable asset you could imagine to try to wash his money and make it legitimate!
|
||||
|
||||
With real estate the scam is huge, check this link up!
|
||||
|
||||
<https://news.utexas.edu/2020/12/03/lending-fraud-could-wreck-economy-again/>
|
||||
|
||||
Means he can get loans and allocate his TRUST BONDS (derivates) as collateral instead of buying the real estate with money! So the banks are getting SHIT TRUST BONDS in exchange of houses and real estate!!
|
||||
|
||||
Omfg!!!! ANOTHER HOUSING MARKET BUBBLE!!!! Boom Money Washed!
|
||||
|
||||
I'll explain a bit more about those TRUST BONDS SOON! Very important
|
||||
|
||||
METHOD 6: He's buying the competition!!
|
||||
|
||||
[They use part of that money to buy other Market Makers](https://www.thetradenews.com/citadel-securities-expands-trading-floor-unit-at-nyse-with-imc-takeover/)!!! So they buy the actual stock floor!
|
||||
|
||||
Buy out the competition!
|
||||
|
||||
Right after they bought IMC, [they sued The SEC for approving a new "D-limit" order type for IEX](https://i.imgur.com/h2QMqV3.png).
|
||||
|
||||
Boom Money Washed!
|
||||
|
||||
METHOD 7: Buy Treasury (bills, notes and bonds) mostly those juicy 10 years notes!
|
||||
|
||||
The buy Treasuries (especially 10 years notes) to wash the money and have leverage, leverage for what? They are shorting the treasury too! So counter leverage... YIKES!
|
||||
|
||||
Boom Money Washed!
|
||||
|
||||
METHOD 8: Short the Treasury!!
|
||||
|
||||
[Using part of that money to short the government bonds](https://www.localsuccess.org/shorting-the-us-treasury-bond-2021/) (especially 10 Year Treasury bonds) knowing about a highly probably hyperinflation caused by the federal reserve printing too much money, the stimulus and other factors.
|
||||
|
||||
They counter the leverage by having T-bonds and T-notes of the ones they bought and also the collateral when lending money to other countries.
|
||||
|
||||
Refer to "The Everything Short" by [u/atobitt](https://www.reddit.com/u/atobitt/).
|
||||
|
||||
[https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/comments/mgucv2/the_everything_short/?utm_source=share&amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;utm_medium=ios_app&amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;utm_name=iossmf](https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/comments/mgucv2/the_everything_short/?utm_source=share&amp;utm_medium=ios_app&amp;utm_name=iossmf)
|
||||
|
||||
Additionally, he's shorting treasury T-bonds and T-notes because he expects a lack of solvency on the part of the Federal Reserve.
|
||||
|
||||
<https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-bonds-pricing-idUSKBN2342VN>
|
||||
|
||||
Boom Money Washed!
|
||||
|
||||
Read this bit about bonds (taken from the linkl bellow):
|
||||
|
||||
However, government-backed bonds, particularly those in emerging markets, can carry risks that include country risk, political risk, and central-bank risk, including whether the banking system is solvent. Investors saw a bleak reminder of how risky some government bonds can be during the Asian financial crisis of 1997 and 1998. During this crisis, several Asian nations were forced to devalue their currency which sent reverberations around the globe. The crisis even caused Russia to default on its debt.
|
||||
|
||||
<https://www.investopedia.com/terms/g/government-bond.asp>
|
||||
|
||||
About all this... Michael Burry has been warning us about a possible hyperinflation, all this will be explained LATER ON!!
|
||||
|
||||
I'm going to break down each one of Kenny strategies as we go in the post.
|
||||
|
||||
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
|
||||
|
||||
TRUST BONDS: The basket of bonds INFITINE MONEY GLITCH!!!
|
||||
|
||||
First of all let me stress how important this is!
|
||||
|
||||
THIS IS KENNY MAIN SOURCE OF CASH (LIQUIDITY), with this he's able to do all kinds of fuckery from shorting, to all the washing methods above (Ill explain more with sources as we move forward).
|
||||
|
||||
They love shorting because they love producing naked shares to fill up the juicy [TRUST BONDS](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/collateraltrustbond.asp#:~:text=A%20collateral%20trust%20bond%20is,pay%20the%20bondholder%2C%20if%20necessary) and get more and more cash for liquidity and fukery!!
|
||||
|
||||
So what's inside those TRUST BONDS?
|
||||
|
||||
"A collateral trust bond is a bond that is secured by a financial asset such as stock or other bonds"
|
||||
|
||||
WAIT WHAT???
|
||||
|
||||
So you telling me that Kenny is not only able to put his NAKED SHARES inside this basket called TRUST BONDS and pack it to sell, but that he can PUT TRUST BONDS INSIDE OTHER TRUST BONDS?
|
||||
|
||||
This is the pyramid and biggest PONZI SCHEME!!!!
|
||||
|
||||
Hear me out:
|
||||
|
||||
They have been shorting many businesses and also buying some long positions in many other businesses (I read somewhere and I cant find the source that Citadel controls 26% (according to the senate in the hearing) of the market). Thank you for the comment [u/citadelsecuritiesLLC](https://www.reddit.com/u/citadelsecuritiesLLC/)
|
||||
|
||||
So this means that they can grab a basket (TRUST BOND) and filling it up with half "good solid long positions"(lets say aple, tesla, amazon) and half GME naked made up shares!!, close the basket and sell it!. Thats a 50% Good old TRUST BOND from citadel.
|
||||
|
||||
HOLY ACTUAL FU%^CK!! Are you serious??
|
||||
|
||||
Gets worse!!
|
||||
|
||||
So you telling me that you can fill bonds with other bonds? That's tranching and creating the pyramid of shit underneath!
|
||||
|
||||
THIS IS THE BIG SHORT ALL OVER AGAIN!!
|
||||
|
||||
The first baskets full with the Good nice long positions and real shorts go first! like the AAA in the movie?
|
||||
|
||||
The last baskets are going be filled with not only GME naked shorts, but with a MIX OF ALL THE OTHER COMPANIES THEY ARE SHORTING INCLUDING TESLA, AMAZON and you name to give them a better rating and price, BUT THEY ARE COMPLETELY FULL OF NOTHING INSIDE!! those ones are the equivalent of the BBB LIKE IN THE BIG SHORT!!!
|
||||
|
||||
Come on! is this HAPPENING AGAIN, are you serious?????
|
||||
|
||||
WHEN IS THIS PEOPLE GOING TO LEARN???
|
||||
|
||||
&amp;#x200B;
|
||||
|
||||
Now... The biggest banks are holdings! (READ BELLOW ABOUT IT)
|
||||
|
||||
Kenny and kids (Melvin, Susquehanna and other baby hedge funds) have been shorting over and over to own companies debt to hold leverage against the banks for daddy Kenny as well!
|
||||
|
||||
So... While the company is not yet bankrupt .... [Shitadel MM makes trust bonds](https://www.chicagotribune.com/news/ct-xpm-2006-12-08-0612080128-story.html), pack them with all the fake GME naked shares inside (can be mixed with other company shorts or full GME) and [sell them as if they were full of valuable real GME](https://www.wiredupreport.com/2021/03/16/viral/citadel-issued-600m-worth-of-bbb-rated-bonds/) (the system don't recognize fakes from reals, right?) Getting tons of money!
|
||||
|
||||
That's a big part of how he gets his Liquidity!!
|
||||
|
||||
His process is extremely complex, he uses algorithms to move the money constantly and very fast, trenching those bonds inside others and reposition them to hide all the rubbish undetected, also buying T-bonds, mortgages, short more companies and etc.
|
||||
|
||||
--------------------------------
|
||||
|
||||
Also, like the [SEC document](https://sec.report/Document/0001752724-21-087103/) states, Kenny and other banks are funding other business in many other countries giving them money and taking advantage (we know how).
|
||||
|
||||
When those business bankrupt too! Archegos style!!, they go and buy the real estate overseas dirt cheap!) They love making naked shares because that's how they get liquidity out of those useless juicy trust bonds.
|
||||
|
||||
Explained better in the KENNY SCAMMING AROUND THE WORLD in PART 2
|
||||
|
||||
So the money come from none existent trash and then make a shit ton more moving it? Holy Balls!
|
||||
|
||||
The ones who buy those Shitadel trust bonds are the bagholders!! They are buying bonds that are full of shit!!
|
||||
|
||||
He is successfully draining the money from the company, from the retail shareholder and for all the people that bought those trust bonds!! While making a shit ton of money from NON EXISTING SHARES PACKED IN BIG BAGS OF SHIT!
|
||||
|
||||
---------------------------------------
|
||||
|
||||
BIG BANKS ARE "HOLDINGS"???? WHAT IS THAT?
|
||||
|
||||
First we need to learn [what is a holding company?](https://www.wolterskluwer.com/en/expert-insights/using-a-holding-company-operating-company-structure-to-help-mitigate-risk) [Restaurant Brands International (RBI)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Restaurant_Brands_International) is an example of a holding company for a group of popular Quick Service (Fast Food) restaurants. They own Burger King, Tim Horton's and Popeyes. In this case RBI holding is basically a basket of a few fast food restaurants put together, like a stock ETF. It is the basket of those businesses and the value is according to those companies performance.
|
||||
|
||||
So are banks holding companies? Well...
|
||||
|
||||
As a result of the global financial crisis of 2008, many traditional investment banks and finance corporations such as Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, American Express, CIT Group and GMAC (now Ally Financial) converted to bank holding companies in order to gain access to the Federal Reserve's credit facilities. ([Wikipedia](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bank_holding_company))
|
||||
|
||||
These holdings are filled up by pieces of many private institutions they lent money to: businesses, hedge funds, as well as people they lent money to (mortgages, auto loans, student loans, etc., plus money they lent to the government. Obviously as well as the money the people deposit and keep in their bank account (it will be their liquidity if they don't use your money, most of the time they move your money.)
|
||||
|
||||
Keep in mind: The federal reserve is privately owned (not part of the government and instead is sanctioned and backed by it) by the 12 reserve banks and the 0.01% (THE BIG BIG WHALES) (they are the top contributors to the reserve). [Federal Reserve Structure](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Structure_of_the_Federal_Reserve_System) WHAAAAAT?
|
||||
|
||||
But lets keep going with the banks...
|
||||
|
||||
Think about every company borrowing money from a bank and putting their assets as collateral (putting that stock collateral inside the bank's basket/pool, mainly ETFs).
|
||||
|
||||
Now the bank owns part of the company in form of debt collateral. The bigger the company debt the bigger part of the pie the bank owns as collateral, right? Big leverage!
|
||||
|
||||
Also, some ETFs are pretty much a basket/pool full of many many company shares that are supposed to be the collateral for the debts. Some others are filled with as packages of people's debt (student loans, mortgages, etc). Others full of government debt to the banks.
|
||||
|
||||
Put all those shares and pieces of the company (could be turned into liquidity if sold in case of company liquidation or too much risk) and their liquidity backing of cash (people's bank accounts deposited) together and that's what the bank is made of. Correct me if I'm wrong on the comments please. The banks own leverage on those companies they lend money too.
|
||||
|
||||
Take a break!! I know this is very intense, but with every word I can see your hands getting harder and harder after knowing WTF is going on!
|
||||
|
||||
Click bellow to continue to [PART 2](https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/comments/n2hhhn/23_the_ultimate_dd_guide_to_the_moon_crazy_melon/)
|
||||
|
||||
CONTINUE IN [PART 2](https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/comments/n2hhhn/23_the_ultimate_dd_guide_to_the_moon_crazy_melon/) ------------------------------
|
||||
|
||||
[PART 3](https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/comments/n2hjnk/33_the_ultimate_dd_guide_to_the_moon_crazy_melon/)
|
||||
|
||||
<https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/comments/n2hhhn/23_the_ultimate_dd_guide_to_the_moon_crazy_melon/>
|
||||
|
||||
Lets go!
|
||||
|
||||
Now this chart does look that crazy now?
|
||||
|
||||
<https://www.docdroid.net/Q8qCCvM/rgme-pokes-at-kenny-g-pdf>
|
@ -0,0 +1,556 @@
|
||||
[2/3] The Ultimate DD guide to the moon!!. Crazy Melon
|
||||
======================================================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/sydneyfriendlycub](https://www.reddit.com/user/sydneyfriendlycub/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/comments/n2hhhn/23_the_ultimate_dd_guide_to_the_moon_crazy_melon/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
[🔬 DD 📊](https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/search?q=flair_name%3A%22%F0%9F%94%AC%20DD%20%F0%9F%93%8A%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||
THIS IS FOR YOU MY APES!! None of this is financial advice. I'm a retarded ape playing with crayons and keys.
|
||||
|
||||
<https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/comments/n2hgxq/13_the_ultimate_dd_guide_to_the_moon_crazy_melon/> PART 1!
|
||||
|
||||
CONTENTS:
|
||||
|
||||
[PART 1](https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/comments/n2hgxq/13_the_ultimate_dd_guide_to_the_moon_crazy_melon/)
|
||||
|
||||
- US DOLLAR BACKING
|
||||
|
||||
- OVERVIEW OF KENNY'S/SHITADEL'S FUCKERY EXPOSED!
|
||||
|
||||
- HOW IS KENNY WASHING THE MONEY?
|
||||
|
||||
- TRUST BONDS: The basket of bonds INFITINE MONEY GLITCH!!!
|
||||
|
||||
- BIG BANKS ARE HOLDINGS COMPANIES???? WHAT IS THAT?
|
||||
|
||||
PART 2
|
||||
|
||||
- HOW AND WHY TO BANKRUPT COMPANIES
|
||||
|
||||
- QUICK RECAP MIXING GME IN:
|
||||
|
||||
- THE MASSIVE REAL ESTATE SCAM!
|
||||
|
||||
- KENNY SCAMMING AROUND THE WORLD
|
||||
|
||||
- WHAT HAPPENS AFTER THE COMPANY GOES BANKRUPT??
|
||||
|
||||
- THE PANDEMIC STIMULUS: The beginning of the end of Kenny
|
||||
|
||||
- KENNY'S FUCK UP!!
|
||||
|
||||
[PART 3](https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/comments/n2hjnk/33_the_ultimate_dd_guide_to_the_moon_crazy_melon/)
|
||||
|
||||
- THE ENDGAME: INEVITABLE! NO FUD
|
||||
|
||||
- SUMMARY
|
||||
|
||||
- TL;DR1:
|
||||
|
||||
- BURRY CONCERN: HYPERINFLATION
|
||||
|
||||
- LIBOR to SOFR
|
||||
|
||||
- TL;DR2 :
|
||||
|
||||
------------------------------------------------
|
||||
|
||||
PART 2
|
||||
|
||||
We are getting there!!! By the end of this posts, Kenny will be FULLY EXPOSED!
|
||||
|
||||
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
|
||||
|
||||
HOW AND WHY TO BANKRUPT COMPANIES
|
||||
|
||||
While a company is heading to bankruptcy (still not bankrupt), they keep shorting and shorting with those naked shares created to drop the price, once they used a share too many times (too many IOUs) they either pack them into trust bonds (for more liquidity for fuckery) and sell them or dump them into a bank ETF (that also tanks the price in the main exchange while also "hiding" the naked shares).
|
||||
|
||||
Seriously Kenny?
|
||||
|
||||
Then they try so hard to bankrupt the company. The company shares are now worthless so they don't need to return any naked shares they produced (and I think they don't even need to pay tax on the difference they make). They made a shit ton of money on betting against the company with options (puts) predicting the company is going down while manipulating the price the whole time.
|
||||
|
||||
So Kenny has been shorting this companies for a reason: yes, it makes him a shit ton of money.
|
||||
|
||||
Is that his goal though? No.
|
||||
|
||||
His goal is to be the king of everything, to own it all. But how does shorting companies help him achieve that? Additionally, if he truly is shorting treasury bonds it is because he expects a lack of solvency on the part of the Fed.
|
||||
|
||||
so lets keep looking at how he does it. Bloody King of fake shares (nothing) Kenny. Yikes!
|
||||
|
||||
When the company is worthless it is then the best time for Shitadel to buy the business shares super cheap along with the real estate! They also buy the business debt providing leverage to the banks.
|
||||
|
||||
Bankruptcy is wonderful for buying real estate at a deep discount. We know he's gobbling up as much as he can get and land is a *tangible asset.*
|
||||
|
||||
They use third party real estate investment companies such IOR Inc (very very shady) that invest in real estate though direct equity. I'll share more details later on.
|
||||
|
||||
Let's continue...
|
||||
|
||||
So we know they buy the real estate, the assets, the shares but what we don't know is.... They also buy the business's debt (all dirt cheap!!). BUYING THE DEBT provide leverage against the banks.
|
||||
|
||||
but the bubble is bigger!
|
||||
|
||||
They have previously flooded the banks ETFs with heaps and heaps of naked shares and when the Kenny go to rebuy the company shares back from the bank the bank don't want to sell in a huge loss! (the company shares worth almost nothing!) So they keep the leverage.
|
||||
|
||||
But not only Shitadel is doing that,
|
||||
|
||||
All his friends are doing it too!!!!! (Melvin, Susquehanna and others). Shorting the government bonds and business debt means the have big leverage on the banks. Owning big pieces of the major banks means they own big part of the Federal Reserve bank (the machine that goes brrrrr).
|
||||
|
||||
----------------------------------------------
|
||||
|
||||
QUICK RECAP MIXING GME IN:
|
||||
|
||||
Draining money from the Businesses, shareholders and scamming people with his empty shells of TRUST BONDS. That's where the liquidity is coming from!
|
||||
|
||||
So where does GME come into play with this scheme? Ill elaborate lot more later on!
|
||||
|
||||
GME resisted and didn't break or bankrupt (thank you papa RC, DFV and every single one of you magnificent apes), instead it went up!
|
||||
|
||||
Kenny then tried harder and harder to break it (kept doubling and doubling down), but he didn't expect retail to be so resilient and not give up, also he didn't expect RC to come and transform the company!
|
||||
|
||||
RC did something that most of us don't see as a big deal, but is a MASSIVE FU**ING DEAL. HE GOT RID OF THE DEBT!!! Now GME is free!! Fuming bloody genius!
|
||||
|
||||
All power to the shareholders, power to the players!
|
||||
|
||||
Lets continue now!!!
|
||||
|
||||
----------------------------------------
|
||||
|
||||
THE MASSIVE REAL ESTATE SCAM!
|
||||
|
||||
--------- EDIT 3: I'm I Wrong?? HASN'T HAPPENED BEFORE?
|
||||
|
||||
<https://www.propublica.org/article/whistleblower-wall-street-has-engaged-in-widespread-manipulation-of-mortgage-funds>
|
||||
|
||||
Am I a shill? Is this a conspiracy? There are no facts or proof? This hasn't happened before? Nothing to see here?
|
||||
|
||||
QaNoN tin foil???
|
||||
|
||||
If you don't believe me Check out this video from the Majority report on your tube. This has been uploaded today 2 of may 2021. That's after my first posts in here.
|
||||
|
||||
<https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=x2xIgseFCpc>
|
||||
|
||||
I'm not crazy, my mum got me tested!
|
||||
|
||||
This is a huge finding Thank you as always you beautiful Jtothetriple!!
|
||||
|
||||
<https://news.utexas.edu/2020/12/03/lending-fraud-could-wreck-economy-again/>
|
||||
|
||||
The article states:
|
||||
|
||||
- Loan originators, who made their profits on volume and pricing of loans, not quality. They misreported key financial information in [48% of loans](https://academic.oup.com/rfs/article/29/2/384/1903200) securitized by nongovernment agencies.
|
||||
|
||||
BOOM!
|
||||
|
||||
- Underwriters at investment banks, who earned more by securitizing low-quality loans with high interest rates and marketing them to investors as high-quality. In legal settlements with the Department of Justice, many admitted they knowingly put false figures into prospectuses.
|
||||
|
||||
BOOM!
|
||||
|
||||
- Credit rating agencies, which needed underwriters as clients. They often inflated ratings of mortgage-backed securities by adjusting their standard rating models. Without such adjustments, one study found, a top-quality AAA security would have fallen to a barely-investment-grade BBB.
|
||||
|
||||
BOOM!
|
||||
|
||||
- The biggest fraud potential, Griffin said, is no longer with home mortgages. It's with other kinds of securitized assets, such as commercial mortgages. For collateralized loan obligations (CLOs), a kind of security backed by business loans, he's found evidence that [the underlying loans are riskier than the CLOs' ratings reflect](https://retirementincomejournal.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/SSRN-id3707557.pdf).
|
||||
|
||||
BIG BADA BOOM!!!
|
||||
|
||||
This is telling us that there is a MASSIVE scam going on!
|
||||
|
||||
[BOOM!](https://www.cnbc.com/2015/10/04/ken-griffin-goes-on-290-million-real-estate-spree.html)
|
||||
|
||||
[BOOM!](https://www.newsbreak.com/illinois/chicago/news/0NNQ2yrU/ken-griffin-invests-in-real-estate-tech-firm)
|
||||
|
||||
[BOOM!](https://www.ft.com/content/25e6100d-4cdd-45d0-aaab-6f9b77b14257)
|
||||
|
||||
No comments on the deals? All the real estate deals "Personal investment" and no other comment?
|
||||
|
||||
Kenny seems to go on real estate shopping's spree quite often!!
|
||||
|
||||
Ohhh wait a minute!!
|
||||
|
||||
I almost forgot that HE CAN GET LOANS to buy REAL ESTATE and put TRUST BONDS AS COLLATERAL!!!
|
||||
|
||||
How? Using those third party realty investors!
|
||||
|
||||
Basically give the BAG to the bank and leave them HOLDING IT!!
|
||||
|
||||
Guess who has a SHIT TON OF REAL ESTATE???
|
||||
|
||||
You guessed right!!! GME AND AMC!!! Woooohoool
|
||||
|
||||
<https://outline.com/pTpkmm>
|
||||
|
||||
SO where is the bubble?
|
||||
|
||||
Like professor Jhon Griffin said on that glorious article.... Some institutions are BACKING their loans with "AAA" bonds thats really are "BBB".
|
||||
|
||||
I bet if those banks open the bags of Kenny's Trust Bonds THEY ARE GOING TO FIND OUR PRECIOUS GME NAKED SHARES IN IT!!!! MADE UP MONEY!!
|
||||
|
||||
EDIT:!!!!------- THERE IS MORE!!!!
|
||||
|
||||
WAIT WHAT??
|
||||
|
||||
I think they are doing extra fukery here with the real estate and the banks based on the article here!!
|
||||
|
||||
I found this little article on the floor of the internet!!
|
||||
|
||||
<https://theintercept.com/2021/04/23/deconstructed-whistleblower-financial-crisis/>
|
||||
|
||||
This article says that commercial mortgages are being resold, but the borrower's info is being inflated to make the mortgage more valuable to the new buyer.
|
||||
|
||||
Ohhhh opportunity for fukery I see!!
|
||||
|
||||
crazy talk over here.... So what they could be doing is... follow me on this one
|
||||
|
||||
Is it possible that leased real estate from those companies they are trying to bankrupt can be collateralized for loans by a third party?
|
||||
|
||||
YES!
|
||||
|
||||
So.....
|
||||
|
||||
They buy the property (not from game stop but form the current owners of the real estate) with a loan trough a third party realty investor that uses equity to get the loans (the property appraisal then is inflated so the loan is higher).
|
||||
|
||||
They get the loan for the appraised amount first and put the current GameStop lease as collateral. No liability for Citadel, is using a third party, equity from non existing money (the trust bonds money) and the current GameStop lease as collateral (GameStop is not planning to move or leave for a while!)
|
||||
|
||||
Whith the bigger loan they buy the property cheaper (at the price really worth not the inflated appraisal price) and pocket the difference.
|
||||
|
||||
Once GameStop bankrupt then the they stop paying the loan and let it defaults, the collateral is gone!.
|
||||
|
||||
Now the bank has to sell the property (usually action), citadel uses the third party again and buys the property dirt cheap at auction with equity again (yup money from the trust bonds!) at lower prices.
|
||||
|
||||
It's a delicious double wash! BOOM! 🤯
|
||||
|
||||
BOOM!
|
||||
|
||||
They don't buy the real estate directly tho. They are using this CITY TERRACE LLCand others, this is how I connected citadel with them
|
||||
|
||||
I started here
|
||||
|
||||
<https://opencorporates.com/companies?q=CITADEL+SECURITIES+LLC>
|
||||
|
||||
After following the Dallas TX address lead me here
|
||||
|
||||
Then got here: <https://opencorporates.com/companies/us_de/5634119>
|
||||
|
||||
1999 BRYAN ST STE 900 DALLAS TX 75201 - 3140
|
||||
|
||||
That Address connects directly to this address
|
||||
|
||||
3700 N. Capital of Texas Hwy Ste 420 Austin TX
|
||||
|
||||
This one has a bunch of shady real estate companies all "working" out of a tiny office.
|
||||
|
||||
HPI real estate and others too.
|
||||
|
||||
The connection is the realtor Aubrie Kudrick...
|
||||
|
||||
The whole thing is very shady with other companies like this beauty here:
|
||||
|
||||
IOR - Income Opportunity Realty Investors
|
||||
|
||||
-IOR Inc. is an externally advised and managed real estate investment company. Co. is engaged in the business of investing in equity interests in real estate through direct equity investments and partnerships, and financing real estate and real estate-related activities through investments in mortgage loans. All of Co.'s real estate is located in the southwest region of the continental U.S. The land portfolio is Co.'s sole operating segment. As of Dec 31 2010, Co.'s land consisted of 203.3 acres of land held for future development or sale, including a storage warehouse.
|
||||
|
||||
Their Website is laughable (honestly I think a 10 years old will do a better job) <http://www.incomeopp-realty.com/index.html>
|
||||
|
||||
Pillar Income Asset Management, Inc. (Pillar) is the Company's external Advisor. Pillar locates, evaluates and recommends real estate and real estate-related investment opportunities and arranges debt and equity financing for the Company with third-party lenders and investors. The Company's land consists of approximately 131.1 acres of Land.
|
||||
|
||||
Look who owns them IOR. This is the whole list. <https://imgur.com/1YUwogo>
|
||||
|
||||
pillarincome.com
|
||||
|
||||
So. Their Coportate Break down. - <http://www.pillarincome.com/?page_id=26> Regis Property Management, LLC, Transcontinental Realty Investors, Inc, American Realty Investors, Inc, Income Opportunity Realty Investors, Inc., Southern Properties Capital, Abode Properties.
|
||||
|
||||
So the first beauty will connect you into a web of other very suspicious to the eye real estate investment companies, go check yourself. YOKESS!!
|
||||
|
||||
This is a chance for a diligent ape to enfold this web of possible fuckery!.
|
||||
|
||||
Btw, if you look at deeper you will find out that the people that manage these realty investor companies they all manage like 50+ different business!!
|
||||
|
||||
EDIT 7: more shady connections
|
||||
|
||||
This set of images I uploaded spells out the story of IOR and TCI
|
||||
|
||||
<https://m.imgur.com/a/ubbX6vS>
|
||||
|
||||
That is IOR. Income Opportunity Retail Investors, with no property and no employees.
|
||||
|
||||
This is TCI.
|
||||
|
||||
<https://imgur.com/a/Qgolnag>
|
||||
|
||||
Negative quarter from loss on Foreign Currency Transactions. How much foreign money are you dealing with for apartment complexes 🤔
|
||||
|
||||
TCI owns most of IOR. TCI and IOR have the same CEO. Might be worth noting that Goldman Sachs and BoA both filed 13Fs in February liquidating their holdings
|
||||
|
||||
This doesn't make sense!! Please investigate
|
||||
|
||||
---------
|
||||
|
||||
Let's continue!!
|
||||
|
||||
----------
|
||||
|
||||
WHY DOES KENNY WANTS TO BE A BANK SO BADLY?
|
||||
|
||||
A state bank is lot less regulated than a federal bank.
|
||||
|
||||
A BANK IS THE ONLY PIECE MISSING IN KENNY PUZZLE
|
||||
|
||||
This way he will eliminate the middle man, the bank does everything for his fuckery.
|
||||
|
||||
Having a bank means, he will be the one setting the price of the appraisals, also giving the loans, then also liquidating the asset and auctioning controlling the prices to buy everything at the price he wants.
|
||||
|
||||
Being able to always inflate the appraisals and pocket the difference everytime more and more!
|
||||
|
||||
And buying the real estate dirt cheap always! Perfect set up!
|
||||
|
||||
Ohhhh the banks game!!!
|
||||
|
||||
HOLY ACTUAL FUCK!!!!
|
||||
|
||||
I'm going to put this information in PART 3 END GAME SECTION. So if you already read it just SKIP IT
|
||||
|
||||
END THE EDIT: ----------------
|
||||
|
||||
extra info from an ape 14 days ago [HERE.](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/ms3zcj/the_real_estate_puzzle_piece_featuring_jp_morgan/?utm_source=amp&amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;utm_medium=&amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;utm_content=post_body)
|
||||
|
||||
EDIT 2: A little piece of a name you already know, Amazon!
|
||||
|
||||
Maybe I'm crazy, maybe I'm not... but a little bird in the comments told me to put one and one together!!!
|
||||
|
||||
And usually if you see the Chiken lie on it, if you see it frying in the pan, most likely is an egg right??
|
||||
|
||||
<https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.forbes.com/sites/christopherwalton/2020/05/29/the-value-of-amazon-buying-jc-penney-could-far-exceed-that-of-buying-target-kohls-or-anyone-else/amp/>
|
||||
|
||||
Maybe our friend Bezos also likey real estato?
|
||||
|
||||
Maybe he "Bought" Jc Penny for the Realto Estato?
|
||||
|
||||
You connect the dots, dig more on your own leasure fellow apes!!
|
||||
|
||||
EDIT2 END ----------------------
|
||||
|
||||
------------------------------------- ----
|
||||
|
||||
KENNY SCAMMING AROUND THE WORLD
|
||||
|
||||
A fellow ape dropped this little document in here that pretty much connected the pieces of the puzzle (confirming they are using bonds strips as collateral to sell overseas in different currencies):
|
||||
|
||||
<https://sec.report/Document/0001752724-21-087103/>
|
||||
|
||||
With part of the scam money, Kenny and friends are funding heaps of companies in different countries: Brazil, Portugal, Hong Kong, Cayman Islands, Spain, Mexico, Virgin Islands, Philippines with a high interest rate of over 12% and receiving Treasury bonds strips (or assets) as collateral and huge leverage. At the same time they are taking advantage of the exchange rates to make huge $$$ out of it.
|
||||
|
||||
----------------------------------------------
|
||||
|
||||
WHAT HAPPENS AFTER THE COMPANY GOES BANKRUPT??
|
||||
|
||||
Lets say the company goes bankrupt. We already know what happens in the BANKRUPT MORALS AND SCHEMES section right?
|
||||
|
||||
This is Kenny's personal vendetta against banks in a bid to own everything!
|
||||
|
||||
To be the biggest king in finance by owning so many companies, so much leverage in the banks while using the money he makes with the naked trust bonds to buy land (not just from the businesses), [real estate](https://therealdeal.com/2020/08/27/ken-griffin-is-approaching-1b-in-worldwide-luxury-real-estate/), [art](https://www.cnbc.com/2016/02/18/ken-griffin-spent-500-million-on-two-paintings-sources.html) and also lend money to companies overseas. Remember Greensill???
|
||||
|
||||
Kenny's babies (Melvin, Susquehanna and friends) now also have massive leverages and are doing the same!!! Kenny style!
|
||||
|
||||
So Kenny ultimately wants to own everything, be too big to be untouchable and bigger than any bank or the Federal Reserve. He's been doing this trick pretty much since 2008 with this predatory behavior!!!
|
||||
|
||||
Another piece of the puzzle...Shitadel and friends are part of the DTCC but so are big banks!
|
||||
|
||||
Makes sense to me why the DTCC is now making all this rules (I'm looking at you juicy 801/002).
|
||||
|
||||
To protect the banks from Shitadel and friends predatory behavior as well as them not to suffer when Shitadel and friends fall due to GME!!! DTCC is not on the wrong side of the equation, they were just manipulated by Kenny big time! [Bloody scammy Kenny!](https://www.wsj.com/articles/citadels-griffin-reaps-windfall-from-companys-bond-sale-11569262332)
|
||||
|
||||
------------------------------------------------
|
||||
|
||||
THE PANDEMIC STIMULUS: The beginning of the end of Kenny
|
||||
|
||||
During the pandemic the government needed tons of money (Maybe trillions 🤷🏻♂️) for stimulus and other things.
|
||||
|
||||
Edited:
|
||||
|
||||
The government issue bonds at very good rates in order to gather money for the stimulus fast.
|
||||
|
||||
Remember Kenny has been selling his trust bonds full of short naked shares? THATS HIS INFINITE MONEY GLITCH!!
|
||||
|
||||
speculation time
|
||||
|
||||
Blackrock and big 0.01% maybe were illiquid and didn't have all the trillions needed for the pandemic aid, that's why issuing all those bonds at good rates was a good fast way to raise money. (remember they been manipulating libor and lending money left right and center!)
|
||||
|
||||
"(Reuters) - Citadel Securities says bank pricing models were more of a problem than balance-sheet constraints when the U.S. Treasury market suffered from extreme illiquidity and volatility in March."
|
||||
|
||||
<https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-bonds-pricing-idUSKBN2342VNg>
|
||||
|
||||
Wait..... MARCH!!! I WONDER WHEN THE MOST FUCKERY IN GME HAPPENED?
|
||||
|
||||
I'm dumb but might of being around those times?
|
||||
|
||||
Maybe just maybe they over short GME to get those juicy Treasury??
|
||||
|
||||
Maybe too many coincidences and right timing?
|
||||
|
||||
Check this tweet from DR MICHAEL BURRY
|
||||
|
||||
<https://imgur.com/gallery/vivSs5f>
|
||||
|
||||
So guess where the money for the stimulus came from?
|
||||
|
||||
Kenny!!
|
||||
|
||||
He bought those treasury (bills, notes and bonds) especially those juicy 10 year bonds!
|
||||
|
||||
They kept releasing all those bonds back then because the machine was going brrrrrrr non stop.
|
||||
|
||||
Kenny has been buying those bonds for a while! One of the ways he's washing the money from the naked trust bonds full of shorts.
|
||||
|
||||
Pure crazy talk speculation!! I'm just a dumb crazy ape throwing crayons to the air. Or maybe not, time will reveal 🤫 but makes fucking sense right?
|
||||
|
||||
KENNY FUCKED THERE BIG TIME.
|
||||
|
||||
I think when he saw the opportunity of those BIG FAT BONDS! he put the glitch machine to work overtime
|
||||
|
||||
CAUSING TO OVER-SHORT MANY COMPANIES ESPECIALLY GME
|
||||
|
||||
That's where everything went wrong with him, he went too big on GME and burry saw it, DFV saw it!
|
||||
|
||||
Jummmmm!!! Makes sense?? No?
|
||||
|
||||
Facts? No!?? I'm just connecting the dots!!
|
||||
|
||||
-------------------------
|
||||
|
||||
Now Kenny has all that treasury to play with. Ohhh no!
|
||||
|
||||
Play time for Kenny! Kenny took those bonds and what he did? and shorted the repo market!!, he shorted the treasury (mainly the 10 year bonds Michael burry been warning us about)!
|
||||
|
||||
I think burry and DFV have been on to him!!
|
||||
|
||||
---------------- BONUS
|
||||
|
||||
Tin hat on!
|
||||
|
||||
Check the spreadsheet in the background of the DFV goodbye video, check those companies.
|
||||
|
||||
Now tell me if those companies are not huge in real estate?
|
||||
|
||||
Now tell me who has a lot of shorts on those companies? SHITADEL?
|
||||
|
||||
Wait..... I'm not so crazy now right??
|
||||
|
||||
Tin foil hat off
|
||||
|
||||
-------------------------
|
||||
|
||||
But why?
|
||||
|
||||
He knew about the changes from libor to SOFR!
|
||||
|
||||
He knew banks were in trouble and he even admitted it!!
|
||||
|
||||
Remember?
|
||||
|
||||
"(Reuters) - Citadel Securities says bank pricing models were more of a problem than balance-sheet constraints when the U.S. Treasury market suffered from extreme illiquidity and volatility in March."
|
||||
|
||||
<https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-bonds-pricing-idUSKBN2342VNg>
|
||||
|
||||
He know the bubble in the market, he has a massive leverage on the banks and also a massive bubble in the real estate!!
|
||||
|
||||
------ BTW: there is also a bubble about to collapse on the ETFs web. That one is about to explode soon!
|
||||
|
||||
He knew a lot of banks are gonna struggle and possibly get margin called for all those years of been manipulating Libor! When they change to SOFR (Read part 3 to fully understand).
|
||||
|
||||
Also he owns both sides of the leverage, he's shorting because he things the government is gonna struggle or even default soon so he shorted, then he has the leverage with all those bonds to ask for favors or just wait until until the market recover and win washing the trust bonds into juicy 10 year bonds successfully!
|
||||
|
||||
------------------
|
||||
|
||||
KENNY'S FUCKED UP!!
|
||||
|
||||
He fucked up with GME.
|
||||
|
||||
If Kenny succeeded bankrupting GME, he efficiently would of succeed in draining a billion dollar company, taking a shit ton of money from retail, scamming the people he sold those trust bonds as well keeping the assets and team state of GME.
|
||||
|
||||
Also getting away with overshooting a company in order to buy treasury washing that money and the money changing hands successfully!
|
||||
|
||||
Why GME??
|
||||
|
||||
speculation based on actions, timing, events and behavior by all parties
|
||||
|
||||
Because he is targeting BRICK AND MORTAR companies to wash the money in REAL ESTATE!
|
||||
|
||||
He needed extra money to buy those treasuries in bargain and over short GME!
|
||||
|
||||
Shitadel was shorting GME for a while and DFV knew that, They also thought it was a sure deal!
|
||||
|
||||
Also,
|
||||
|
||||
He uses real estate to wash the trust bonds. He is buying real estate using stock and derivates as collateral!! (With his non existent shorts!!!).
|
||||
|
||||
So be bankrupts business based on real estate to then reabsorb all those assets and wash the money!!
|
||||
|
||||
There is more of this fuckery later on!!
|
||||
|
||||
He's a parasite in the market inflating companies (with naked shares inside to then bankrupt them), successfully destroying the economy, stopping technology and so screwing many people that is struggling and unemployed! (Savirour of the people right?)
|
||||
|
||||
*Really Kenny?*
|
||||
|
||||
He also lent more and more money overseas to win with the transaction rates and the juicy 12%+ interest rates. Then wanted to cover everything and blame the PANDEMIC! When those business fail then he will also buy those business, the REAL ESTATE overseas and have leverage on every bank in the world that way!
|
||||
|
||||
Massive global scam Kenny! Exposed by a fucking Melon?
|
||||
|
||||
KENNY FUCKED UP in GME big time!
|
||||
|
||||
He overshorted GME thinking was a sure deal and not calculating the risks. HE MESSED WITH GAMERS!!
|
||||
|
||||
My logic (watching his videos and history of Reddit messages in the past 2 years)tell me that DFV was looking at GME for a while (burry too, I don't mean they communicate or talk) and when he saw that shitadel (and friends) increased their short position heaps, plus he saw following Dr Michael Burry tweets <https://imgur.com/gallery/vivSs5f> (he was listening to burry, finally someone did), he bought the long calls
|
||||
|
||||
That makes complete sense to me!! The company was greatly undervalued and wasn't going that bad really. I saw his entire analysis and hypothesis.
|
||||
|
||||
Check it out <https://youtu.be/GZTr1-Gp74U>
|
||||
|
||||
------------------
|
||||
|
||||
So for Kenny to keep succeeding, he needed to stay quiet, but he woke an army of APES!! He woke up retail!!
|
||||
|
||||
Also now 0.01%, the government and banks realized that GME wasn't going bankrupt and that Kenny has been scamming like that all along!! The shit pop out of the lid! And leaked too much!
|
||||
|
||||
After reading this (HOPE THE MEDIA AND THE SEC READS IT).
|
||||
|
||||
Maybe, just maybe they don't know! Maybe I just figure Kenny's game and I'm first to the punch!
|
||||
|
||||
Whatever it is, we need to expose this everywhere! This needs to stop! This parasite in the market and economy needs to stop! Spread this!!! Is your responsibility to be loud!!
|
||||
|
||||
The 0.01% want their money back, so are apes!!
|
||||
|
||||
Let's climb back what Kenny has been stealing from APES FOR YEARS!!
|
||||
|
||||
----------------------------------------
|
||||
|
||||
Take a break!! I know this is very intense, but with every word I can see your hands getting harder and harder after knowing WTF is going on!
|
||||
|
||||
Ohhh Kenny, how the fuck did a melon discover your fuckery?
|
||||
|
||||
CONTINUE IN [PART 3](https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/comments/n2hjnk/33_the_ultimate_dd_guide_to_the_moon_crazy_melon/) ---------------------------------
|
||||
|
||||
EDIT 1: Adding more info in the REAL ESTATE SCAM PART
|
||||
|
||||
EDIT 2: Ohhhhh you all know amazing right? A bit piece on it....
|
||||
|
||||
**EDIT 3: I'm I wrong? Hasn't happened before?? Yes it has!
|
||||
|
||||
<https://www.propublica.org/article/whistleblower-wall-street-has-engaged-in-widespread-manipulation-of-mortgage-funds>
|
||||
|
||||
EDIT 4: edit about the stimulus and some speculations to be mask as speculations
|
||||
|
||||
EDIT 5: Another piece of alert about the treasury bonds!!
|
||||
|
||||
**EDIT 6: <https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=x2xIgseFCpc> Majority report proving one of my hypothesis after o released this videos!! I'm not crazy! And everything is gonna start coming to light!
|
||||
|
||||
<https://www.ft.com/content/ea6f3104-eeec-466a-a082-76ae78d430fd>
|
||||
|
||||
**EDIT 7: more shady business connected!! Real estate fraud GO BACK TO [PART 1](https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/comments/n2hgxq/13_the_ultimate_dd_guide_to_the_moon_crazy_melon/)
|
||||
|
||||
Now this chart does look that crazy now?
|
||||
|
||||
<https://www.docdroid.net/Q8qCCvM/rgme-pokes-at-kenny-g-pdf>
|
158
Daily-Synopsis-Archives/2021-05-21-Synopsis.md
Normal file
158
Daily-Synopsis-Archives/2021-05-21-Synopsis.md
Normal file
@ -0,0 +1,158 @@
|
||||
The Daily Stonk 05-21-2021
|
||||
==========================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/rensole](https://www.reddit.com/u/rensole/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nhoms3/the_daily_stonk_05212021/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
[Daily News 🦍💎🙌🚀](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22Daily%20News%20%F0%9F%A6%8D%F0%9F%92%8E%F0%9F%99%8C%F0%9F%9A%80%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/ojjd5ewm2g071.png?width=1024&format=png&auto=webp&s=103487b6a5c4f725cea969eeedc38d8f35cf031d)
|
||||
|
||||
Good Morning San Diago,
|
||||
|
||||
Does anyone smell that?
|
||||
|
||||
*insert flashy intro card*
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/6yp9zngo2g071.png?width=680&format=png&auto=webp&s=8acbab1f1ec5ae24fb2c7b527b5bbfc4c4752ca5)
|
||||
|
||||
Did someone deliver mayo?
|
||||
|
||||
Written by [u/rensole](https://www.reddit.com/u/rensole/)
|
||||
|
||||
So it seems that yesterday was a busy day at the Citadel HQ, there was a thread [here](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nhctbx/citadel_is_having_some_trouble_right_now/) showing a large police and fire trucks on the scene. There were some apes who were kind enough to hop on the train and even go there.
|
||||
|
||||
What we found out:
|
||||
|
||||
It was most likely a suspicious package that showed up, as some users already noticed that the fire trucks there were the ones with Hazmat suits in them (I didn't even know that there was a special version truck for this tbh), but as [/u/xsonusx](https://www.reddit.com/u/xsonusx/) mentioned in the comments;
|
||||
|
||||
"Suspicious package called in earlier. Nothing going on at the building at the moment"
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/qss27jwp2g071.png?width=640&format=png&auto=webp&s=8432cdc0c6ee73e920351f6403d7c4a9b11cffcb)
|
||||
|
||||
OFFICIAL AMA- Lucy Komisar Part 2 - Monday, May 24, 2021 @ 4:30 p.m. Eastern
|
||||
|
||||
This is the official AMA (Ask Me Anything) post for Lucy Komisar (Pt. 2), who will be joining [u/Luridess](https://www.reddit.com/u/Luridess/) once again on [Superstonk Live](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wuPizlDY0Ys) for a one-on-one discussion, with questions influenced by and taken directly from [this post](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nhglmp/official_ama_lucy_komisar_part_2_monday_may_24/).
|
||||
|
||||
Be sure to give the thread a read and leave your questions you have for her there, and if you've not seen part one you can view it [here](https://youtu.be/wKXWvEpnN34)
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/kodqxcnq2g071.png?width=640&format=png&auto=webp&s=97f50305dc7fbf92fc637778e7dc19a5b0332f27)
|
||||
|
||||
DR BuRRRRRRY
|
||||
|
||||
At this point everyone here has most likely seen "the big short" a couple of times, or even better, read the book.
|
||||
|
||||
Well it seems that other stock subs are noticing that there is something big going on, most of the ones ask questions like "Is there even a stock with negative beta?" or they started to look into Dr Burry's findings, because well... the dude is smarter than all of us put together.
|
||||
|
||||
[This thread](https://www.reddit.com/r/Burryology/comments/nga3as/margin_debt_archegos_capital_total_return_swaps/) goes over some of the findings and indicators Dr Burry uses to check the market, it's mostly about the margins debts and how Archegos was overleveraged and how that affects the rest, and how a market crash is very close.
|
||||
|
||||
be sure to give it a read
|
||||
|
||||
Also on the repo market (something you've undoubtedly seen mentioned a few times here now) here is a video of about 5 minutes explaining what Repo's are and what they mean and what they're for.
|
||||
|
||||
<https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nh9g0u/you_may_develop_some_wrinkles_george_gammon_repo/>
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/0j9nrhrr2g071.png?width=640&format=png&auto=webp&s=b6b47d56194563e63f6c34762a344eda64ad15b1)
|
||||
|
||||
Can you smell that?
|
||||
|
||||
004
|
||||
|
||||
004 was the rule about members of the DTCC defaulting then the other members could buy up their stocks for pennies on the dollar before turning to open market, making sure they can profit off of other defaulting members.
|
||||
|
||||
Also a thread was made in update for the 005 here:
|
||||
|
||||
<https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/ngwhzu/where_is_srdtc2021005_the_update/>
|
||||
|
||||
the user had some personal interaction with the SEC/dtcc on where the hell it is.
|
||||
|
||||
It comes down to "we're on it" but again read the thread itself.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/vtu3vent2g071.png?width=640&format=png&auto=webp&s=51c287a3be33ca64294f019e0811a4d8ee4388c0)
|
||||
|
||||
Robbin da hood
|
||||
|
||||
Over the last few days we have seen a lot of different posts coming up about robinhood giving weird statements, showing that people who are transferring out of RH (and to Fidelity or another one) they get statements showing all their shares were fractional shares bought at times and prices that don't match up with what is going on right now.
|
||||
|
||||
I remember a member having XXX shares but their cost basis was around 1.3 million, while they didn't spend anywhere near that, or people having single shares bought around the 600 mark and the ATH of the stock was below 500.
|
||||
|
||||
Now there are multiple ways to explain this.
|
||||
|
||||
1. something deep dark and sinister is happening, users have speculated that RH is buying them off of Citadel at inflated prices, meaning they're using this to stave off a margin call
|
||||
|
||||
2. Robinhood's system is just bad and fucked up.
|
||||
|
||||
3. Robinhood is buying them from darkpools, and seeing the stock is getting harder and harder to come by they are asking for higher prices.
|
||||
|
||||
For me personally I think it's number two, Robinhood has shown to be incompetent on multiple accounts and times, whenever crypto goes up their system goes bust and have an "unexpected planned maintenance", transferring out does not go as smooth as it should for some members, this all leads me to believe that RH's tech stuff has been a shitty system at best, and no one expected a mass exodus from their platform and their system is not equipped to handle this, ending in lots of errors.
|
||||
|
||||
No matter the case be sure to keep your receipts in case the IRS ever comes knocking so you can show your actual cost basis and amount of shares.
|
||||
|
||||
<https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/ngx2ag/hypothesis_robinhood_is_currently_buying_the_gme/>
|
||||
|
||||
<https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/ngkrg3/proof_that_rh_had_to_scramble_to_find_shares_when/>
|
||||
|
||||
<https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/ngun6e/proof_that_rh_scrambled_to_find_shares_during_my/>
|
||||
|
||||
<https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/ngw2xo/i_just_fully_transferred_out_of_robinhood_to/>
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/i2rsf0bv2g071.png?width=640&format=png&auto=webp&s=e79d83a4e5459aecc4e4104c2d3d5a1ecd6ce33e)
|
||||
|
||||
Weird transactions for the past few days
|
||||
|
||||
3 days in a row weird transactions have been happening, this was found out by the german sub [r/Spielstopp](https://www.reddit.com/r/Spielstopp/) but still need to look into this on it's validity and not sure what this could possibly be or mean perhaps some smarter apes here could take a look and find out what it could possibly mean.
|
||||
|
||||
<https://www.reddit.com/r/Spielstopp/comments/ngfhuw/dritter_tag_in_folge_324106_aktien_blocktrade_auf/gytoixh/?context=3>
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/z56lpl8w2g071.png?width=640&format=png&auto=webp&s=457e8f3a80eb0e3a7d31c732e579a1266ec7e2fc)
|
||||
|
||||
The best for last
|
||||
|
||||
GO VOTE, again check [this](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nhc8x4/dont_be_lazy_and_think_enough_people_will_vote/) thread.
|
||||
|
||||
READ IT, AND GO VOTE.
|
||||
|
||||
if your broker does not let you vote, nag them, keep asking them until you can.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/0ix29mpx2g071.png?width=554&format=png&auto=webp&s=3f932bb7568a04d509df8ee6e9a3b40f28705901)
|
||||
|
||||
EXCELLENT!
|
||||
|
||||
Be friendly, help others!
|
||||
|
||||
as always we are here from all different walks of life and all different countries.
|
||||
|
||||
This doesn't matter as we are all apes in here, and apes are friends.
|
||||
|
||||
Doesn't matter if you're a silverback a chimp or a bonobo.
|
||||
|
||||
We help each other, we care for each other.
|
||||
|
||||
Ape don't fight ape, apes help other apes
|
||||
|
||||
this helps us weed out the shills really fast, as if everyone is helpful, the ones who aren't stand out.
|
||||
|
||||
remember the fundamentals of this company are great, so for the love of god if someone starts with trying to spread FUD, remind yourself of the fundamentals.
|
||||
|
||||
There is no sense of urgency, this will come when it comes, be a week, be it a month be it six.
|
||||
|
||||
We don't care, just be nice and lets make this community as Excellent as we can!
|
||||
|
||||
Remember one of the only ways to counter the Cointelpro we have seen is by being overly nice, so treat all the other apes as if you're dating and you wanna get to first base.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/lw9bhlpy2g071.png?width=400&format=png&auto=webp&s=01ae7ba1aaa556b264c954358f21b3fdbfd242c3)
|
||||
|
||||
Remember none of this is financial advice, I'm so retarded I'm not allowed to go to the zoo 'cause they'll put me in the cage with the rest of my ape brothers.
|
||||
|
||||
If anything happens throughout the day we will be adding it here.
|
||||
|
||||
backups:
|
||||
|
||||
<https://twitter.com/rensole>
|
||||
|
||||
<https://twitter.com/PinkCatsOnAcid>
|
||||
|
||||
<https://twitter.com/RedChessQueen99>
|
130
Daily-Synopsis-Archives/2021-05-24-Synopsis.md
Normal file
130
Daily-Synopsis-Archives/2021-05-24-Synopsis.md
Normal file
@ -0,0 +1,130 @@
|
||||
The Daily Stonk 05-24-2021
|
||||
==========================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/rensole](https://www.reddit.com/user/rensole/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nju7sv/the_daily_stonk_05242021/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
[Daily News 🦍💎🙌🚀](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22Daily%20News%20%F0%9F%A6%8D%F0%9F%92%8E%F0%9F%99%8C%F0%9F%9A%80%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/bd5yjg0sb1171.png?width=1600&format=png&auto=webp&s=0eecf3cef72278d8c21e839efde2fdabd438d247)
|
||||
|
||||
Good Morning San Diago,
|
||||
|
||||
I am Rensole and this is your daily news.
|
||||
|
||||
Does anyone smell that?
|
||||
|
||||
*insert flashy intro card*
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/6h4j7vwvb1171.png?width=680&format=png&auto=webp&s=2d3d57ab6015b6d22d3226db20bf89dfe279b8ba)
|
||||
|
||||
Intro
|
||||
|
||||
Due to what we've seen occur over the past weekend we are expecting a big influx of new members. I've seen threads from [r/CryptoCurrency](https://www.reddit.com/r/CryptoCurrency/) and other subs finally catching on that the behavior we have seen recently is far from normal.
|
||||
|
||||
For the people who are not familiar with the situation it's fairly easy:
|
||||
|
||||
Market makers/brokers/ idiots involved with stocks have abused crypto's in order to stave off their margin calls, they did this by pumping up lots of low cap crypto's so they could show they had enough liquidity they would dump it, in order to have profit to redo their work again and again.
|
||||
|
||||
Effectively digging their own hole deeper and deeper.
|
||||
|
||||
So for the new apes joining, welcome to the jungle!
|
||||
|
||||
Also because some people did not read it, there have been some updates to the sub a few days ago [u/redchessqueen99](https://www.reddit.com/u/redchessqueen99/) wrote up a thread about it and be sure to give it a quick look to make sure you're up to date.
|
||||
|
||||
<https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nilq5f/the_great_ape_updation/>
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/c8mzsdnxh1171.png?width=600&format=png&auto=webp&s=8ce84030bea70fdd74e1d055d7d8e9cca2f7675e)
|
||||
|
||||
WO IST MEIN DEUTSCHE MARKT?!!
|
||||
|
||||
For everyone wondering WHY IS THERE NO GERMAN PREMARKET!!!???
|
||||
|
||||
it's due to Pentacost, it's a christian holiday so the german market is closed today, so expect the pre market volume to be even lower than normal.
|
||||
|
||||
Official AMA- Lucy Komisar Today
|
||||
|
||||
for the most up to date information regarding the AMA check out [this thread](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nj867u/official_ama_lucy_komisar_monday_may_24th_lucy/)
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/d6ejrm4og1171.png?width=831&format=png&auto=webp&s=028c5c6104ac0f81c8a68d61d15df63df39c68e8)
|
||||
|
||||
It seems the apes were early, but not wrong
|
||||
|
||||
MARGIN DEBT AT ALL TIME HIGH
|
||||
|
||||
This week is the week were the CEO's of a lot of major banks has to appear before congress... not entirely sure why but I remember there were a lot of this happening post 2008 crash stuff.
|
||||
|
||||
There is a thread about it [here](https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/comments/nj6iz0/ceos_of_major_banks_testifying_this_week_margin/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf) which goes more in depth then I do.
|
||||
|
||||
May 26 at 12:00 PM ET: The Subcommittee on Oversight and Investigations will convene for a virtual hearing entitled, "Consumer Credit Reporting: Assessing Accuracy and Compliance."
|
||||
|
||||
May 27 at 12:00 PM ET: The full Committee will convene for a virtual hearing entitled, "Holding Megabanks Accountable: An Update on Banking Practices, Programs and Policies."
|
||||
|
||||
[Link To Committee Site](https://financialservices.house.gov/news/documentsingle.aspx?DocumentID=407897)
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/im50fwvpd1171.png?width=960&format=png&auto=webp&s=e075b266780072fcc9f7a221a66b1fad9b86d651)
|
||||
|
||||
Today is the day.... again.... part 10
|
||||
|
||||
So let's look at a couple of indicators
|
||||
|
||||
[this thread](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nil0ww/sp_500_negative_yield_crescat_capital_letter_may/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf) by [u/jealous_squash_1031](https://www.reddit.com/u/jealous_squash_1031/)
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/1msxqvsdf1171.png?width=960&format=png&auto=webp&s=faf3c53da7ccd281994041fa7278fcd10a9527d2)
|
||||
|
||||
this was one of the indicators Dr. Burry used
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/n832btyvg1171.png?width=640&format=png&auto=webp&s=8887cf8a93b35d6bc62cd9b037c4904232c20f25)
|
||||
|
||||
👀👀👀
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/vfeh3vahf1171.png?width=627&format=png&auto=webp&s=4aa9002eee60d94d262871cf08120d709fbf7881)
|
||||
|
||||
Just to go off of indicators... this looks like a huge market crash is coming very soon, not "Blizzard soon tm" but actually soon.
|
||||
|
||||
We have seen a lot of new rules get passed very fast recently, we have seen banks and hedgefunds burning the midnight oil and on weekends, we see every possible indicator possible pointing to a market crash (even crypto is being cashed out because they need money)... this is the stuff hypothesized would happen for a long time, and now it's here.
|
||||
|
||||
To the Crypto gang just joining us, welcome, if you guys need help feel free to help in the daily thread, apes like to help with anything 😉
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/e6wl931ei1171.png?width=554&format=png&auto=webp&s=ac1a26a22aa0c9a1bd51163b7d25b0002a3a1e5e)
|
||||
|
||||
EXCELLENT!
|
||||
|
||||
Be friendly, help others!
|
||||
|
||||
as always we are here from all different walks of life and all different countries.
|
||||
|
||||
This doesn't matter as we are all apes in here, and apes are friends.
|
||||
|
||||
Doesn't matter if you're a silverback a chimp or a bonobo.
|
||||
|
||||
We help each other, we care for each other.
|
||||
|
||||
Ape don't fight ape, apes help other apes
|
||||
|
||||
this helps us weed out the shills really fast, as if everyone is helpful, the ones who aren't stand out.
|
||||
|
||||
remember the fundamentals of this company are great, so for the love of god if someone starts with trying to spread FUD, remind yourself of the fundamentals.
|
||||
|
||||
There is no sense of urgency, this will come when it comes, be a week, be it a month be it six.
|
||||
|
||||
We don't care, just be nice and lets make this community as Excellent as we can!
|
||||
|
||||
Remember one of the only ways to counter the Cointelpro we have seen is by being overly nice, so treat all the other apes as if you're dating and you wanna get to first base.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/pczh5zlgi1171.png?width=400&format=png&auto=webp&s=be5ba28356309ec88b89decb77c45cb79fff95f7)
|
||||
|
||||
Remember none of this is financial advice, I'm so retarded I'm not allowed to go to the zoo 'cause they'll put me in the cage with the rest of my ape brothers.
|
||||
|
||||
If anything happens throughout the day we will be adding it here.
|
||||
|
||||
backups:
|
||||
|
||||
<https://twitter.com/rensole>
|
||||
|
||||
<https://twitter.com/PinkCatsOnAcid>
|
||||
|
||||
<https://twitter.com/RedChessQueen99>
|
162
Daily-Synopsis-Archives/2021-05-25-Synopsis.md
Normal file
162
Daily-Synopsis-Archives/2021-05-25-Synopsis.md
Normal file
@ -0,0 +1,162 @@
|
||||
The Daily Stonk 05-25-2021
|
||||
==========================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/rensole](https://www.reddit.com/user/rensole/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nklmno/the_daily_stonk_05252021/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
[Daily News 🦍💎🙌🚀](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22Daily%20News%20%F0%9F%A6%8D%F0%9F%92%8E%F0%9F%99%8C%F0%9F%9A%80%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/pweknxznb8171.png?width=1600&format=png&auto=webp&s=46062698236d9e03945e61290c4aaebfdbaa873b)
|
||||
|
||||
Good Morning San Diago,
|
||||
|
||||
I am Rensole and this is your daily news.
|
||||
|
||||
Does anyone smell that?
|
||||
|
||||
*insert flashy intro card*
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/imbcjk6qb8171.png?width=680&format=png&auto=webp&s=50aa8b19aad14004e5cb9e29fbe47802b64d6660)
|
||||
|
||||
Shoutout to [u/pinkcatsonacid](https://www.reddit.com/u/pinkcatsonacid/)
|
||||
|
||||
So the AMA yesterday had some technical difficulties, which in and of themselves suck to have. But I have to say I'm extremely proud of how my fellow mod handled the situation, as far as I know Pink had not done an AMA before but if you told me she did I would have believed you.
|
||||
|
||||
She handled it with grace and once Lucy couldn't reconnect she acted fast and well, stepping up and going on with the show like a true champ.
|
||||
|
||||
Seriously, kudo's for your work Pink 👏👏👏
|
||||
|
||||
A further write-up of the AMA can be found [here](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nke7sp/post_ama_dd_lucy_komisar_ama_powerpoint_and/)
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/idys9hptf8171.png?width=600&format=png&auto=webp&s=3f0683dbe9be4a67e8fc07748e94652f62cd7568)
|
||||
|
||||
RC Tweet
|
||||
|
||||
Steve floats to the top?
|
||||
|
||||
<https://twitter.com/ryancohen/status/1397047791889879041?s=20>
|
||||
|
||||
I know this is from "American Dad" and the kids name is Steve, he seems to be floating up.
|
||||
|
||||
Can be a shitpost or can be a message that has something to do with the float.
|
||||
|
||||
What's funny to know about this scene is (from memory) steve was a terrible swimmer and had Claus stuck in his swimming shorts to do the work, so could also be a reference to someone working behind the scenes?
|
||||
|
||||
Again could be a lot could be nothing.
|
||||
|
||||
Addendum: [u/ChemicalFist](https://www.reddit.com/u/ChemicalFist/) found out something interesting, there is an investing term called "underwater"
|
||||
|
||||
<https://www.investopedia.com/terms/u/underwater.asp>
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/biqdvptvp8171.png?width=960&format=png&auto=webp&s=59baff6bff93cf6fcb8fd99d3478c420d92339fd)
|
||||
|
||||
hmmmmmm interesting!
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/hvc3s9pqd8171.png?width=700&format=png&auto=webp&s=dc86e43cefd12b1484611ca50990145994b1ceff)
|
||||
|
||||
When in doubt, zoom out
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/uaskll7le8171.png?width=960&format=png&auto=webp&s=c6c4c5f09fe93f8437b4be60075ab2651a282d7c)
|
||||
|
||||
It's been on a two week rise, even if the "daily" profit was gone by a flash, look at the chart it's still ok.
|
||||
|
||||
Slow and steady my friends, slow and steady.
|
||||
|
||||
We've been saying this for a long long time, the Moass is like Gandalf, it will come when it is meant to, just hodl, chill out and see what happens.
|
||||
|
||||
This was never meant for a quick buck, or whatever, re-view Deepfuckingvalue's videos where he talks about diamond handing, look at Mark Cuban's ama on wsb.
|
||||
|
||||
This was never going to be easy or fast, so sit your monkey ass back, share a banana with a friend and have some laughs. Because we are still waiting on the annual shareholders meeting.
|
||||
|
||||
If after the shareholders meeting they see that there is an extremely high amount over votinging they won't take action that exact day, they'll go through their legal channels and it may be a few weeks before we hear about it (trust me they want/need to do everything above board) this is because they can file lawsuits against the bad actors and get "damages" paid.
|
||||
|
||||
But that's all speculation, all I'm trying to say is learn to be zen, it will come when it comes.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/buzmqhrdg8171.png?width=640&format=png&auto=webp&s=d58dc32b49e594027ab7b207dbb35e26ecbbbf44)
|
||||
|
||||
Crypto SUUUUUUUUUBS
|
||||
|
||||
Ok guys real talk here for a sec, we have had some cryptobro's along our side for quite some time now, people actively posted on my thread yesterday saying they were here from jan/feb ish but never posted, so this is awesome to have more people aware of all of this.
|
||||
|
||||
The one thing that isn't cool however, is going on THEIR subs and saying they should get into GME/AMC/ANYTHING
|
||||
|
||||
Imagine how you would react if someone came in here trying to push Bitcoin/Etherium/Dogecoin ? You'd get upset right? so please understand that if they want to post about GME they'll come here, but we should in no way brigade their subs
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/5x888rwph8171.png?width=640&format=png&auto=webp&s=503c253a8e7816ea1f387fc2ec3534da27915089)
|
||||
|
||||
Italian bank collapses on exposure to Greensill and GFG
|
||||
|
||||
<https://www.ft.com/content/c02a6e97-5505-4d4a-933f-a0e934ca6eda>
|
||||
|
||||
there is a thread about it right [here](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nk3ddb/italian_bank_collapses_on_exposure_to_greensill/gzamro3?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3)
|
||||
|
||||
Be sure to give it a read ;)
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/glflhpk5i8171.jpg?width=512&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=2a8d315254e1a3173bfa5dcb29da3ab1ff533a94)
|
||||
|
||||
Sen Elizabeth Waren: wants to bar congress from trading individual stocks
|
||||
|
||||
<https://www.businessinsider.com/elizabeth-warren-ban-congress-trading-stocks-investing-tom-malinowski-nhofe-2021-5?international=true&r=US&IR=T>
|
||||
|
||||
TL:DR Congress abuses their knowledge of stocks (like with the covid crash) and profits and outperforms the market, if this moves forward they wont be able to do that anymore.
|
||||
|
||||
Nice to see some people actually making waves.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/3nuz7qmwi8171.png?width=1600&format=png&auto=webp&s=e36636a3e11ab200b8301cc8d0fb4ad1d8908f9c)
|
||||
|
||||
Bitcoin wallet ?
|
||||
|
||||
According to [THIS](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nkde38/bitcoin_address_activity_appear_to_mirror_gme/) post, there seems to be a bitcoin wallet moving at against GME, now I'm not wrinkle brained enough to understand this, but I hope I can bring this to the attention of smarter apes here who could be willing to help and research this OP, and maybe find some more stuff out.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/n13zn4k4k8171.png?width=640&format=png&auto=webp&s=3cd0bea93696315fadb950b5682064f8b2be2a12)
|
||||
|
||||
Gamestop New Filing
|
||||
|
||||
<https://gamestop.gcs-web.com/node/18896/html>
|
||||
|
||||
Gamestop just released their "Form SD" or "Special Disclosure" on **Conflict Minerals Disclosure and Report.**Be sure to give it a read and a once over
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/hq54qcmej8171.png?width=554&format=png&auto=webp&s=125db23967823382afaafcf3f2545fd8c3da921e)
|
||||
|
||||
EXCELLENT!
|
||||
|
||||
Be friendly, help others!
|
||||
|
||||
as always we are here from all different walks of life and all different countries.
|
||||
|
||||
This doesn't matter as we are all apes in here, and apes are friends.
|
||||
|
||||
Doesn't matter if you're a silverback a chimp or a bonobo.
|
||||
|
||||
We help each other, we care for each other.
|
||||
|
||||
Ape don't fight ape, apes help other apes
|
||||
|
||||
this helps us weed out the shills really fast, as if everyone is helpful, the ones who aren't stand out.
|
||||
|
||||
remember the fundamentals of this company are great, so for the love of god if someone starts with trying to spread FUD, remind yourself of the fundamentals.
|
||||
|
||||
There is no sense of urgency, this will come when it comes, be a week, be it a month be it six.
|
||||
|
||||
We don't care, just be nice and lets make this community as Excellent as we can!
|
||||
|
||||
Remember one of the only ways to counter the Cointelpro we have seen is by being overly nice, so treat all the other apes as if you're dating and you wanna get to first base.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/1gslsm4hj8171.png?width=400&format=png&auto=webp&s=cfdfaa1e23aebb523c314887ced099b533bef9fa)
|
||||
|
||||
Remember none of this is financial advice, I'm so retarded I'm not allowed to go to the zoo 'cause they'll put me in the cage with the rest of my ape brothers.
|
||||
|
||||
If anything happens throughout the day we will be adding it here.
|
||||
|
||||
backups:
|
||||
|
||||
<https://twitter.com/rensole>
|
||||
|
||||
<https://twitter.com/PinkCatsOnAcid>
|
||||
|
||||
<https://twitter.com/RedChessQueen99>
|
||||
|
||||
And yes this is not being posted through Automod, Automod does not let me edit my posts after they have been posted (I'm currently looking into it if it's at all possible to do, because if new news comes out during the day it is important to add in here, then I want to add it in, instead of making 30 posts a day).If someone smart could perhaps help me with the automod posting and editing of posting please let me know in a comment!
|
258
Daily-Synopsis-Archives/2021-05-26-Synopsis.md
Normal file
258
Daily-Synopsis-Archives/2021-05-26-Synopsis.md
Normal file
@ -0,0 +1,258 @@
|
||||
The Daily Stonk 05-26-2021
|
||||
==========================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/rensole](https://www.reddit.com/user/rensole/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nlcyfx/the_daily_stonk_05262021/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
[Daily News 🦍💎🙌🚀](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22Daily%20News%20%F0%9F%A6%8D%F0%9F%92%8E%F0%9F%99%8C%F0%9F%9A%80%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/a5yv387dkf171.png?width=1600&format=png&auto=webp&s=ee61b1b888ecdacbf02623f0cb545bb9c4086385)
|
||||
|
||||
Good Morning San Diago,
|
||||
|
||||
I am Rensole and this is your daily news.
|
||||
|
||||
Does anyone smell that?
|
||||
|
||||
*insert flashy intro card*
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/tcqbdc6gkf171.png?width=680&format=png&auto=webp&s=c36976b3db22cea9b69877a196dce94360396a4d)
|
||||
|
||||
Ok this one is a little obligatory
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/9z5xwnmjkf171.png?width=960&format=png&auto=webp&s=1734a4cc62e1c6b39337364df11412e0f66cb073)
|
||||
|
||||
Happy 200, glad to see you again my old friend.
|
||||
|
||||
But let's go with the news
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/x1dadtwpkf171.png?width=640&format=png&auto=webp&s=2590f499ef55702360c92afd0d44dce09df53982)
|
||||
|
||||
Cramer and Bear Stearns
|
||||
|
||||
So everyone has seen the big short by now right?
|
||||
|
||||
At the ending of the movie you can see Mark Baum at a conference and a guy talking about how his bank is still ok, while the rest of the room is getting updates on their phones that the stock is plummeting, this is what happened with Bear Stearns and Jimmy Cramer.
|
||||
|
||||
Bear Stearns was one of the biggest banks in terms of stock brokering in the world at the time. and Jim Cramer told others to "buy buy buy" as he so often does with his soundboard. the problem however was that at the time BS was trading around $62 usd, only five days later they got bought out by Jp Morgan for $2 usd a share. (bailed out by them).
|
||||
|
||||
Now from this came a joke of sorts, always do the opposite of what Cramer says (even long before we apes came along), sometimes he has a good thing in there and some actual good advice but more then not I'd say the inverse is true.
|
||||
|
||||
Now Jim Cramer has a great background as a hedgefund manager and entertainment personality, both come with great connections to the right people, so you'd think he would know whatsup and give better advice than most people could as just a tv personality, but here we are again, another "Bear Stearns is FINE" moment, there have been people screaming about the inflation of the USA going insanely high (prices of food, lumber and metals going up) and JPOW is screaming "nah it's all ok"
|
||||
|
||||
I'm hardly an expert or someone who is allowed to use scissors without supervision, but by all the markers it seems that the USA economy is circling the drain right now, with reverse repo rates getting higher by the day, inflation rising, CBOE VIX spiking every other day, M1 surging....
|
||||
|
||||
Yeah this feels like another "Bear Stearns" situation to me.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/7brl8wioof171.png?width=857&format=png&auto=webp&s=4debd99f223a76f9f53a544b2dc6ee32ecfb7869)
|
||||
|
||||
reverse Repo going up again
|
||||
|
||||
SR-ICC-2021-009
|
||||
|
||||
<https://public-inspection.federalregister.gov/2021-11083.pdf>
|
||||
|
||||
This beauty is going to be filed today.
|
||||
|
||||
I'd say give it a good read, I personally love page 6 and 7
|
||||
|
||||
"establishing a risk-based margin system" hmmmm Kenny be sure you have your phone on buddy ;)
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/42xlo4ksof171.png?width=828&format=png&auto=webp&s=a09af119e2515a6b6edd7812610889cfedb69497)
|
||||
|
||||
To big to fail
|
||||
|
||||
Today the senate banking committee will hold its hearing on may 26th at 10 A.M. what the hearing is about or what they're going to talk about is unknown, the same is for tomorrow the house financial services committee will be holding it's hearing at the 27th at noon
|
||||
|
||||
Its indicated that the biggest banks ceo's will be hauled in front of congress, just like in 2009
|
||||
|
||||
the following CEO's will be attending and scheduled to testify
|
||||
|
||||
1. Jamie Dimon - JPMorgan Chase
|
||||
|
||||
2. David Solomon - Goldman Sachs
|
||||
|
||||
3. Jane Frase - Citigroup
|
||||
|
||||
4. James Gorman - Morgan Stanley
|
||||
|
||||
5. Brian Moynihan - Bank of America
|
||||
|
||||
6. Charles Scharf - wells fargo
|
||||
|
||||
I currently do not have a link to where we can view/stream these hearings but if a smart ape finds out let me know and I will update it here
|
||||
|
||||
Big thank you to [u/sky_is_not_the_limit](https://www.reddit.com/u/sky_is_not_the_limit/) for finding these:
|
||||
|
||||
Hearing for today, 26th 10 am
|
||||
|
||||
<https://www.banking.senate.gov/hearings/annual-oversight-of-wall-street-firms#>
|
||||
|
||||
House financial comittee, 27th noon
|
||||
|
||||
<https://financialservices.house.gov/calendar/eventsingle.aspx?EventID=407756>
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/rggptmqvof171.png?width=828&format=png&auto=webp&s=867c0be332be1762180610c835e6b3dbdb30bc5e)
|
||||
|
||||
For the new apes among us
|
||||
|
||||
First of all welcome!
|
||||
|
||||
Second, for the people who see this and think "Woah dude" be sure to chill and read some DD we have posted around here, while going up over 200 is nice we are up institutional gamblers *cough Shitadel*
|
||||
|
||||
These guys will do everything to win so they wont go "fuck it, they've won" they'll fight till the last nickel is done for, so even though its awesome to see, don't think you've won until it's way over.
|
||||
|
||||
Again read the DD, take in as much info as you can, and double check everything, never trust anyones word, always do your own DD.
|
||||
|
||||
Knowledge is the weapon against all FUD
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/ieiirzhupf171.png?width=510&format=png&auto=webp&s=af389726d3196916e9274c8575c42998e8bfbf95)
|
||||
|
||||
IS IT A BIRD? IS IT A PLANE?
|
||||
|
||||
I will be adding a big part on the NFT and blockchain stuff here later today be sure to come back and check it (I'd rather take my time to double check everything and the possibilities with it before making claims that may be wrong).
|
||||
|
||||
The big news comes down to something fucking awesome
|
||||
|
||||
- First Actual use of the NFT to use as a service or goods
|
||||
|
||||
- NFT based preorder items
|
||||
|
||||
- Perhaps a crypto dividend
|
||||
|
||||
- Power up rewards can become part of the blockchain
|
||||
|
||||
- reselling of digital games
|
||||
|
||||
- Digital marketplace.
|
||||
|
||||
If any of these are going to be implemented, congrats RC you've just killed off Steam
|
||||
|
||||
But again I'll be diving deeper into the entire crypto part and will be coming back here later today to update it with as much info as I can find.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/mqe42y2lqf171.png?width=554&format=png&auto=webp&s=005491bcd8e21ed8088469d4116d67ddcd363e71)
|
||||
|
||||
EXCELLENT!
|
||||
|
||||
Be friendly, help others!
|
||||
|
||||
as always we are here from all different walks of life and all different countries.
|
||||
|
||||
This doesn't matter as we are all apes in here, and apes are friends.
|
||||
|
||||
Doesn't matter if you're a silverback a chimp or a bonobo.
|
||||
|
||||
We help each other, we care for each other.
|
||||
|
||||
Ape don't fight ape, apes help other apes
|
||||
|
||||
this helps us weed out the shills really fast, as if everyone is helpful, the ones who aren't stand out.
|
||||
|
||||
remember the fundamentals of this company are great, so for the love of god if someone starts with trying to spread FUD, remind yourself of the fundamentals.
|
||||
|
||||
There is no sense of urgency, this will come when it comes, be a week, be it a month be it six.
|
||||
|
||||
We don't care, just be nice and lets make this community as Excellent as we can!
|
||||
|
||||
Remember one of the only ways to counter the Cointelpro we have seen is by being overly nice, so treat all the other apes as if you're dating and you wanna get to first base.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/jh1v3b0sqf171.png?width=400&format=png&auto=webp&s=d8cb0bc7d15aedb90561e26691aa61ac208320b8)
|
||||
|
||||
Remember none of this is financial advice, I'm so retarded I'm not allowed to go to the zoo 'cause they'll put me in the cage with the rest of my ape brothers.
|
||||
|
||||
If anything happens throughout the day we will be adding it here.
|
||||
|
||||
backups:
|
||||
|
||||
<https://twitter.com/rensole>
|
||||
|
||||
<https://twitter.com/PinkCatsOnAcid>
|
||||
|
||||
<https://twitter.com/RedChessQueen99>
|
||||
|
||||
Little side note: I wont be posting through Automod anymore because it takes away the ability to edit the posts once posted :( if anyone found a way around this by any chance please let me know because I'd love to just use automod but I need to be able to edit.
|
||||
|
||||
Be sure to check in for updates throughout the day!
|
||||
|
||||
------------------------------------------------------------
|
||||
|
||||
Gamestop Cryptoshop
|
||||
|
||||
Ok I have to preface this that my crypto knowledge is extremely limited, and I will have to go off of information of smarter apes which have posted here, so if anything is incorrect in this next segment please feel free to correct me.
|
||||
|
||||
Now first of some things we know for sure (or think we know for sure).
|
||||
|
||||
the address where you can find the info is <https://nft.gamestop.com/>
|
||||
|
||||
There is a small game hidden in there, with the squeezable cat toy, its the little pixel on the top right of the website if you click that you get the game.
|
||||
|
||||
------------------------------------------------------------
|
||||
|
||||
The token was created around the time of Ryan Cohens tweet
|
||||
|
||||
<https://etherscan.io/token/0x13374200c29C757FDCc72F15Da98fb94f286d71e>
|
||||
|
||||
^ address with all info and age.
|
||||
|
||||
------------------------------------------------------------
|
||||
|
||||
Do not buy any Crypto's because people say "this is Gamestops Crypto" When GME will launch their crypto for to be able to buy, expect Gamestop to offer some sort of press statement, the crypto landscape is littered with scammers so be very careful please.
|
||||
|
||||
------------------------------------------------------------
|
||||
|
||||
The platform they are using is Etherium and some information about that can be found here:
|
||||
|
||||
<https://www.theblockcrypto.com/linked/106071/gaming-retailer-gamestop-is-building-an-nft-platform-on-ethereum>
|
||||
|
||||
------------------------------------------------------------
|
||||
|
||||
The GME crypto will launch on July 14th, Bastille day.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/ttjgz0y8ag171.png?width=828&format=png&auto=webp&s=cc8a9fab35715616a44f544442dc7357c67a4207)
|
||||
|
||||
<https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bastille_Day>
|
||||
|
||||
This was found by [u/jakksquat7](https://www.reddit.com/u/jakksquat7/) in his thread [here](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nl2vld/july_14th_the_date_of_the_gme_crypto_coin_launch/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf)
|
||||
|
||||
------------------------------------------------------------
|
||||
|
||||
Another thing we know for sure is that this does not automatically mean there will be a crypto dividend, but the possibility of one just rose exponentially. As GME themselves have not made a public statement about this we don't know for sure if it will happen, but again it seems like the chances just rose exponentially.
|
||||
|
||||
------------------------------------------------------------
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/v5gpt5gqag171.png?width=500&format=png&auto=webp&s=54e00366b5333b2d6bfb5dd45317b0338fd311f3)
|
||||
|
||||
------------------------------------------------------------
|
||||
|
||||
NFT's have not been used for "useful" transfers, meaning up until now you could buy digital artwork, or a videoclip. With Gamestop getting into the NFT business we might see the first implementation of "useful NFT".
|
||||
|
||||
With useful I don't mean to say the previous stuff wasn't, but useful is more defined in the sense of something you can actually use as a product.
|
||||
|
||||
This can be implemented in lots of different ways as I've come to understand it, as with the blockchain you can get verified data. meaning one could in theory use it to sell and resell digital assets.
|
||||
|
||||
So they could in theory make a "Steam" like store, but with the option of selling your digital games, or selling cosmetic items (players of Warzone/Fortnite/CSGO and others may be familiar with this and know that custom skins can sometimes go for big money), also as I understand it is that the original creator gets a cut of the profits if it gets resold.
|
||||
|
||||
The old model was:\
|
||||
Player buys physical model in store\
|
||||
80% of the profit is for the store, 10% for the publisher 10% for the creator (just an example), but once the game got traded in and resold the profit was 100% for the store selling this game.
|
||||
|
||||
Now in the digital marketplace we see people like Valve and Apple having a monopoly (their cut is usually around 30ish %) but there is only one sell and it's done
|
||||
|
||||
With the new model it could be possible a player plays a game, is done with it and wants to sell it, now lets say it gets sold on GME's marketplace as an NFT, the original creator/publisher of the game will get a cut of each sale on the secondhand digital market, this incentivises them to participate as it creates a secondary (passive) income stream for them.
|
||||
|
||||
Also you could have more weight behind digital versions of "collectors editions"
|
||||
|
||||
The same could also be used for "save files", in game currency, specific partnerships (for example twitch or SLGG or Microsoft) to make an easy method to pay across all platforms with a simple click of a button, and GameStop as a company can earn a passive income stream from "transaction fees" (for example 1 cent per sale, if you have thousands a day that still racks up a nice sum).
|
||||
|
||||
The same could also be used for actual physical items, they could combine their powerup rewards program with this, or Pre ordering, curbing scalpers (seeing they sell both consoles and graphics cards now who knows?)
|
||||
|
||||
This could nullify the Piracy argument and need for bad antipiracy locks ( LOOKING AT YOU DENUVO DRM), because the item could be verified via nft blockchain.
|
||||
|
||||
Cross platform games or cross platform avatars, as in theory (as far as I understand) your entire gamer profile could be an NFT
|
||||
|
||||
Regardless of what Gamestop decides to use their NFT technology for, I am thrilled to just even think about all the possibilities that this technology brings with it. and as someone who has never really dabbled with crypto that much, this is exciting to see crypto come very close to physical stores.
|
||||
|
||||
Again boilerplate not financial advice and I know jack shit about crypto, but I like this stock and I'm excited to see the future
|
216
Daily-Synopsis-Archives/2021-05-27-Synopsis.md
Normal file
216
Daily-Synopsis-Archives/2021-05-27-Synopsis.md
Normal file
@ -0,0 +1,216 @@
|
||||
The Daily Stonk 05-27-2021 Daily News 🦍💎🙌🚀
|
||||
==============================================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/rensole](https://www.reddit.com/user/rensole/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nm3v69/the_daily_stonk_05272021_daily_news/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
[Daily News 🦍💎🙌🚀](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22Daily%20News%20%F0%9F%A6%8D%F0%9F%92%8E%F0%9F%99%8C%F0%9F%9A%80%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/p7ax6xdjpm171.png?width=1600&format=png&auto=webp&s=5d6b0f796524fd55169b33472a462480f1de6a7f)
|
||||
|
||||
Good Morning San Diago,
|
||||
|
||||
I am Rensole and this is your daily news.
|
||||
|
||||
Does anyone smell that?
|
||||
|
||||
*insert flashy intro card*
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/nadlij5lpm171.png?width=680&format=png&auto=webp&s=0ffb49b8064b6339dac769268dc4fabbadd47e47)
|
||||
|
||||
Ok lets start off with a couple of obligatory things:
|
||||
|
||||
1st because Ryan Cohen likes southpark this seems fitting
|
||||
|
||||
0:00
|
||||
|
||||
1:07
|
||||
|
||||
vote or die - p diddy
|
||||
|
||||
Be sure to vote!
|
||||
|
||||
Fellow mod [u/nauaf101](https://www.reddit.com/u/nauaf101/) made a good thread surrounding how to vote, what banks do what etc.
|
||||
|
||||
be sure to check it out [here](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nlpz4h/your_votes_are_important_the_time_to_vote_is_now/)
|
||||
|
||||
Second our in house super big brain [u/atobitt](https://www.reddit.com/u/atobitt/) has written the banana opus be sure to give it a read
|
||||
|
||||
[Citadel has no clothes](https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/comments/m4c0p4/citadel_has_no_clothes/)
|
||||
|
||||
[The EVERYTHING Short](https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/comments/mgucv2/the_everything_short/)
|
||||
|
||||
[House of cards part one](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/mvk5dv/a_house_of_cards_part_1/)
|
||||
|
||||
[House of cards part two](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nlwaxv/house_of_cards_part_2/)
|
||||
|
||||
[House of cards part three](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nlwqyv/house_of_cards_part_3/)
|
||||
|
||||
I've not personally had the chance to read the latest two parts but I do know these have been fact checked by [u/dlauer](https://www.reddit.com/u/dlauer/) and Dr T and it seems they check out!
|
||||
|
||||
So this will make for an interesting read today!
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/kh7m19bdrm171.png?width=960&format=png&auto=webp&s=130380e04f5dd28716058e233b881ad69901ded7)
|
||||
|
||||
They closed them in January? then how do you lose.... ooooooh
|
||||
|
||||
In a recent Reuters article we can read that the short sellers have lost $754 million on Tuesday alone
|
||||
|
||||
<https://www.reuters.com/technology/gamestop-amc-short-sellers-lost-754-mln-after-tuesdays-rally-ortex-2021-05-26/>
|
||||
|
||||
I keep hearing about they supposedly closed their position, we see strange behavior with the stock (FTD cycles) deep money options accumulating beyond the float, glitches showing up which we hypothesise may be shares which may be the number of shares which almost become FTD
|
||||
|
||||
This is far from over imo
|
||||
|
||||
[Volume glitches](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nliz0i/volume_glitches_surrounding_t21_dates_finra_rule/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf)
|
||||
|
||||
But seeing we had some good days I need to remind everyone of my favorite leather bound book series
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/gq8qomabtm171.png?width=460&format=png&auto=webp&s=cadb7774a0a19d6eaf4ce317b99a20c702f70941)
|
||||
|
||||
it's not over till it's over, so until then expect everything can happen, the only thing we can know for sure is that the stock can go up, go down but one thing we know for a fact the line will go from left to to right.
|
||||
|
||||
But until its over, all we have to do is wait and hodl.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/48lool9tum171.png?width=586&format=png&auto=webp&s=8e5fa530ccac6a54329e701cbce92fa0fc97a81d)
|
||||
|
||||
Let me do make it clear this is a cool thing that Ortex is reporting this but ortex also says gme only has a SI% of 17% (which would mean that for them to lose that much in the past 3 days the price would need to be 2k+) so take it with a grain of salt. all I know is that my college math professor would fail them.. hard.
|
||||
|
||||
0:00
|
||||
|
||||
0:21
|
||||
|
||||
after yesterday r/superstonk waiting for the opening bell
|
||||
|
||||
Reverse Repo... Again?
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/1mfirg4pum171.png?width=1440&format=png&auto=webp&s=043b003683e9ec674bdfdf6e66db9e151a29ffe4)
|
||||
|
||||
Ok this one is something that makes me scratch my smooth brain quite a bit, the repo's are being used like... alot, and they keep increasing every day I remember somewhere last week or so these numbers where in the 300 now they're at 450 for yesterday.
|
||||
|
||||
let me explain with some links
|
||||
|
||||
<https://www.reddit.com/r/DDintoGME/comments/nkmoi9/response_to_the_post_about_the_reverse_repo_limit/gze53hp/>
|
||||
|
||||
[u/Carb0n12](https://www.reddit.com/u/Carb0n12/) was a kind enough ape that went through all participants and listed them for us in the above link.
|
||||
|
||||
then [u/Believer109](https://www.reddit.com/u/Believer109/) made a thread [here](https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/comments/nljwua/a_user_on_ddintogme_has_discovered_that_54_out_of/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf) but I'll quote his post here for ease of reading.
|
||||
|
||||
```
|
||||
All credit to /u/Carb0n12 and /u/BlindAsBalls for this post which is buried
|
||||
in a good DD about the FED's Reverse Repo process.
|
||||
|
||||
What does this mean???
|
||||
|
||||
Well, it means that there are 58 total institutions participating in the SOMA.
|
||||
There is a hard limit on the value of the SOMA ($7.3T),
|
||||
but an individual institutional limit of $80B each.
|
||||
Last night we hit $433B total and we know that there were 54
|
||||
Reverse Repos (again, out of 58 eligible institutions).
|
||||
|
||||
It is very very likely that one of the bigger banks or players
|
||||
on that list will hit their $80B limit very soon,
|
||||
perhaps as soon as this week or even today,
|
||||
meaning they would be forced to margin call HFs for the difference.
|
||||
|
||||
Not financial advice.
|
||||
All credit to the users who did the due diligence,
|
||||
just trying to bring attention to this.
|
||||
It's huge.
|
||||
|
||||
```
|
||||
|
||||
Thanks for researching this guys, it seems that this in and of itself is... bad (for the economy) but it's not like we're facing hyperinflation or another crashing housing crisis right?
|
||||
|
||||
Welp... fuck
|
||||
|
||||
[u/Sh0w3n](https://www.reddit.com/u/Sh0w3n/) made a thread [here](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nljmgp/hello_the_big_short_hello_michael_burry_over_21/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf)
|
||||
|
||||
And take a wild fucking guess... Over 2.1 million mortgages are ''seriously delinquent'' (have not paid for more than 90 days) and in total 8.2 million mortgages are "behind" so we will most likely be facing another 2008... again, but seeing what we can now see (and know) of the stock market this will be a 2.0 and worse.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/13762xpsvm171.png?width=600&format=png&auto=webp&s=af08c9c336bc46bc61e73942b7f6e9559d3f6bd4)
|
||||
|
||||
He did what!?
|
||||
|
||||
Ok first of all let me boilerplate this, I thought it was hilariously fucked up, but here is the thing, we can't do that kind of shit here, we are a stock board and even though we may have some juvenile or crude humor from time to time, this is where we have to draw the line.
|
||||
|
||||
Because if we don't what's next? someone taking a crap on their bosses desk? or worse.
|
||||
|
||||
I'm just saying it's all fun and games, but that stuff we gotta keep off of here.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/9pru2uugwm171.png?width=500&format=png&auto=webp&s=27435aefb42f375d947337187be03d61961a0853)
|
||||
|
||||
Ok so some last stuff before I go today, here are a couple of links which I believe might be interesting for you guys!
|
||||
|
||||
<https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nlr9n7/one_of_our_own_apes_called_this_run_up_a_week_ago/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf>
|
||||
|
||||
<https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nfodjb/there_was_never_a_wedge_wyckoff_accumulation/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf>
|
||||
|
||||
<https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/nlmlev/daym_it_feels_good_to_be_a_gme_hodler_in_times/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf>
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/fudmlucuwm171.png?width=554&format=png&auto=webp&s=c725b84568142f991da3b03d397182aefffdfd49)
|
||||
|
||||
EXCELLENT!
|
||||
|
||||
Be friendly, help others!
|
||||
|
||||
as always we are here from all different walks of life and all different countries.
|
||||
|
||||
This doesn't matter as we are all apes in here, and apes are friends.
|
||||
|
||||
Doesn't matter if you're a silverback a chimp or a bonobo.
|
||||
|
||||
We help each other, we care for each other.
|
||||
|
||||
Ape don't fight ape, apes help other apes
|
||||
|
||||
this helps us weed out the shills really fast, as if everyone is helpful, the ones who aren't stand out.
|
||||
|
||||
remember the fundamentals of this company are great, so for the love of god if someone starts with trying to spread FUD, remind yourself of the fundamentals.
|
||||
|
||||
There is no sense of urgency, this will come when it comes, be a week, be it a month be it six.
|
||||
|
||||
We don't care, just be nice and lets make this community as Excellent as we can!
|
||||
|
||||
Remember one of the only ways to counter the Cointelpro we have seen is by being overly nice, so treat all the other apes as if you're dating and you wanna get to first base.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/pdonx5vwwm171.png?width=400&format=png&auto=webp&s=b98ff9e8d9507bfc692528c22fcea8fd200974ba)
|
||||
|
||||
emember none of this is financial advice, I'm so retarded I'm not allowed to go to the zoo 'cause they'll put me in the cage with the rest of my ape brothers.
|
||||
|
||||
If anything happens throughout the day we will be adding it here.
|
||||
|
||||
backups:
|
||||
|
||||
<https://twitter.com/rensole>
|
||||
|
||||
<https://twitter.com/PinkCatsOnAcid>
|
||||
|
||||
<https://twitter.com/RedChessQueen99>
|
||||
|
||||
Edit:
|
||||
|
||||
Our Swedish apes can now votehttps://www.reddit.com/[r/Superstonk](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/)/comments/nm39ni/breaking_the_swedish_broker_avanza_will_finally/
|
||||
|
||||
Edit 2:Cramer flipped.... again
|
||||
|
||||
<https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o8dhFQKHRsk&ab_channel=CNBCTelevision>
|
||||
|
||||
not sure what to make of this 🤷♂️
|
||||
|
||||
Edit 3
|
||||
|
||||
ETORO WILL LET YOU VOTE!
|
||||
|
||||
<https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nm78os/etoro_vote_to_be_announced_tomorrow/gzmwjoh/?context=3>
|
||||
|
||||
More news to come on this, also I can not personally verify this Email so.. grain of salt and all that.
|
||||
|
||||
Edit 4
|
||||
|
||||
House financial committee hearing, 27th noon
|
||||
|
||||
<https://financialservices.house.gov/calendar/eventsingle.aspx?EventID=407756>
|
184
Daily-Synopsis-Archives/2021-05-28-Synopsis.md
Normal file
184
Daily-Synopsis-Archives/2021-05-28-Synopsis.md
Normal file
@ -0,0 +1,184 @@
|
||||
The Daily Stonk 05-28-2021
|
||||
==========================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/rensole](https://www.reddit.com/user/rensole/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nmsqhr/the_daily_stonk_05282021/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
[Daily News 🦍💎🙌🚀](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22Daily%20News%20%F0%9F%A6%8D%F0%9F%92%8E%F0%9F%99%8C%F0%9F%9A%80%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/p3yfpss97t171.png?width=1600&format=png&auto=webp&s=825ffd179bc212c737f844969d365702c1f58530)
|
||||
|
||||
Good Morning San Diago,
|
||||
|
||||
I am Rensole and this is your daily news.
|
||||
|
||||
Does anyone smell that?
|
||||
|
||||
*insert flashy intro card*
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/68e62rxa7t171.png?width=680&format=png&auto=webp&s=8cd05d5b888f0e83fb63311336b019f1f35a1187)
|
||||
|
||||
Let's start with the basics once more!
|
||||
|
||||
0:00
|
||||
|
||||
1:07
|
||||
|
||||
Be sure to vote with your shares, don't think it won't matter because it does, over-voting would show there are lots of things being wrong and would give the company a much needed excuse to call their votes back in.
|
||||
|
||||
Also for the 6/9 (nice) annual shareholders meeting, remember that we will most likely not see a lot happen to the stock immediately after this because if they have something planned (NFT/Dividend/ recounting their own shares etc) it can be mentioned there but could still take some time before it can be implemented.
|
||||
|
||||
Like the NFT is set to launch around the 14th, if they were to give a dividend it could also be a few weeks, a recount can take a lot longer though, due to the audit process being very specific it may take a month or maybe longer (I can't say, or imagine, how long auditing the shares would take as this is a scale because the situation unprecedented) and there is a chance the vote count can be doctored to make sure it shows a non accurate vote count, regardless of everything just hodl and wait, as news reports have already stated SHF have list close to 2 billion usd just from Monday till Wednesday, but also these are "paper" losses as there is only an actual loss once they close their positions.
|
||||
|
||||
([some 6/9 reading right here quoting Queen kong Dr T](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nm9kuc/getting_your_hopes_up_on_the_69_vote_is_fud/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf))
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/754fz228ct171.png?width=500&format=png&auto=webp&s=e9a25097bb62cc42c950fef6bb8d50e8fccfe343)
|
||||
|
||||
Rip Harambe
|
||||
|
||||
Today marks the 5th anniversary of our OG King.
|
||||
|
||||
Let's all take a second of silence and pay our respects for Harambe, Never to be forgotten.
|
||||
|
||||
Ook ook oook!
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/o1vo7pd0gt171.png?width=960&format=png&auto=webp&s=4500fae62893c1f614c5dd02aa8a3af0bdefb7a2)
|
||||
|
||||
The 411 on AMC
|
||||
|
||||
Now there has been some discussion going on here over the past few days, and the mod team and others have noticed something, a metric fuckton of shills.
|
||||
|
||||
To be clear on the AMC situation I need everyone to be clear on a few aspects. (which I will go into a little detail below)
|
||||
|
||||
- there are genuine apes who hold AMC
|
||||
|
||||
- Amc has been seen as a distraction
|
||||
|
||||
- There is a theory that Adam Aron is a plant
|
||||
|
||||
- People who are trying to divide apes
|
||||
|
||||
There are genuine apes who hold AMC
|
||||
|
||||
Remember we have been seeing the same behavior happening with GME BB NOK AMC and other very heavily shorted stocks, as a lot of people joined in the long long ago of January we have seen apes buy more than just GME. So keep in mind there are people here who own AMC and they are genuine, and we should be happy for them
|
||||
|
||||
Amc has been seen as a distraction
|
||||
|
||||
Due to the nature of Citadel filings ([found here](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nmd04p/according_to_fintel_citadel_increased_their_long/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf)) they have increased their long position on AMC to 163%, meaning they could be using the AMC squeeze the stave off a margin call, as we have theorised for months now they would pump another stock as a distraction (just like we have seen happen with certain crypto like CXC) in the hopes that the apes would FOMO into the other stock.
|
||||
|
||||
Little did they know that we already figured this strategy out since February, and it's ok, just imagine if the AMC apes took their AMC squeeze tendies and put them in GME, that's the point that SHF's forget, we can keep retarded longer than they can remain solvent.
|
||||
|
||||
There is a theory that Adam Aron is a plant
|
||||
|
||||
Now there has been a theory floating around that AA may be a plant by SHF just like Jim Bell(end) was for GME, this in and of itself is not a weird theory as if you look into things like this is it's not out of the ordinary for things like this to happen.
|
||||
|
||||
Because if this is true (and lets for a second hypothesize that it is) if you were to make billions or go tits up, would you instal someone in the company you want to do this with to make sure this happens? because I would, now is there also a case to be made for AA just being... well AA and nothing more?Yes! both options are possible as of right now as we have not found exclusive evidence of either, meaning we can't rule out either.
|
||||
|
||||
[link going into that a bit here](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nmnfby/apes_under_attack_how_hedge_funds_and_banks_are/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf)
|
||||
|
||||
People who are trying to divide apes
|
||||
|
||||
This one is the easiest, I've been posting since January that people should be Excellent to each other, and for the most part people have listened, for which we (the mods and fellow apes) are extremely thankful for because if we just were dicks to one and other this would've ended a long time ago.
|
||||
|
||||
We have now cultivated a culture of extreme helpfulness, kindness and generosity, this is our biggest strength because due to that we have formed a community which helps one and other in such an effective way that shills usually have zero ammo to fight with.
|
||||
|
||||
Now if you look at this culture, this sub, and apes on other subs, the culture remains fairly much the same.
|
||||
|
||||
Now AMC had a spike yesterday, and suddenly OUT OF FUCKING NOWHERE, apes start "fighting" but when you look into them they're either fairly new accounts, or all they're doing is trolling across all kinds of subs, so what does that tell you? for me it's easy, that's a shill
|
||||
|
||||
So just don't engage, if a person is "fighting" with you verbally and you just don't respond there is no problem because it takes two to fight, just ignore the shills who want to fight, be nice and done
|
||||
|
||||
([some reading regarding AMC](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nmhm1s/amcs_spike_today_and_what_it_means_for_gme_hfs/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf) pump possible)
|
||||
|
||||
Just remember MSM has never been on our side this entire time, we have not trusted them for the longest time because they inaccurately reported everything, don't start trusting their bs now, even if it feeds your confirmation Bias. (this includes Jimmy Cramer suddenly saying "YeAh Im On YoUr Side NoW" piss off Jimmy
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/z15owkhset171.jpg?width=960&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=c6530f6415af48014682b556c506dfdece83009d)
|
||||
|
||||
be like water, and chill
|
||||
|
||||
Reverse repo now reaches $485 Billion
|
||||
|
||||
Just eum... gonna leave this here as this is an all time high...
|
||||
|
||||
<https://www.ft.com/content/cdec7f2e-6129-412c-b118-8906a2a0f92f>
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/a28vz7b0ft171.png?width=1080&format=png&auto=webp&s=15ab8f862d3fc4a88df0cb8dcf6a8ae84a17e3f1)
|
||||
|
||||
Just... totally normal to see this.... 👀....
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/5ha2ja4oft171.png?width=960&format=png&auto=webp&s=3f619b78c45d20ff8af2333ab11b5abe456d29f4)
|
||||
|
||||
[WTF DID HE JUST SAY? (VIDEO)](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nmiygi/unmitigated_disasterdamage_united_states_for/?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share)
|
||||
|
||||
Did this dude just say the treasuries are close to defaulting ?????
|
||||
|
||||
Wasn't this... like HOC1's thesis?*looks at repo... *looks at videofuuuuck
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/gm6pn6al9t171.png?width=960&format=png&auto=webp&s=5d474983a3ad00bceee6a708424b4f066ed8cc62)
|
||||
|
||||
SR-OCC-2021-003 approved - That one was needed for SR-OCC-2021-801
|
||||
|
||||
<https://www.sec.gov/rules/sro/occ/2021/34-92038.pdf>
|
||||
|
||||
thanks to [u/C3ll3](https://www.reddit.com/u/C3ll3/) their thread [here](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nmjbov/srocc2021003_approved_that_one_was_needed_for/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf)
|
||||
|
||||
SR-OCC-2021-003: Increase Persistent Minimum Skin-In-The-Game / Waterfall*The "You Market Makers are gonna give us more money now in case you fuck up with options later and owe someone more than you have" Rule.*This is the rule associated with the SR-OCC-2021-801 advanced notice, and SIG filed an opposition during the review period delaying the implementation.Filed 2021-02-24Effective 2021-05-31 (expected no later than 05-31, unless further opposition is filed)
|
||||
|
||||
*This paragraph is from [u/nothingbuttherainsir](https://www.reddit.com/u/nothingbuttherainsir/) [DD](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nhh0f1/update_go_nogo_for_launch_the_checklist_keeping/) (very interesting please go give it a read).
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/ma6vlwg8ht171.png?width=758&format=png&auto=webp&s=c1ca694e4945dedb6fb7e3c8e8a35423d88628de)
|
||||
|
||||
To summarize:
|
||||
|
||||
The stars are aligning but expect fuckery, if you see someone fighting someone else because they hold another stock let them be and ignore them (old 4chan saying "don't feed the trolls"), be kind, check your own bias and be excellent to everyone!
|
||||
|
||||
Amc apes are still apes, all apes are friends, but remember this sub is GME focussed.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/izturryvht171.png?width=554&format=png&auto=webp&s=132d9b3cc33e59d2dff499d8b9f9362d5a2ccbfb)
|
||||
|
||||
EXCELLENT!
|
||||
|
||||
Be friendly, help others!
|
||||
|
||||
as always we are here from all different walks of life and all different countries.
|
||||
|
||||
This doesn't matter as we are all apes in here, and apes are friends.
|
||||
|
||||
Doesn't matter if you're a silverback a chimp or a bonobo.
|
||||
|
||||
We help each other, we care for each other.
|
||||
|
||||
Ape don't fight ape, apes help other apes
|
||||
|
||||
this helps us weed out the shills really fast, as if everyone is helpful, the ones who aren't stand out.
|
||||
|
||||
remember the fundamentals of this company are great, so for the love of god if someone starts with trying to spread FUD, remind yourself of the fundamentals.
|
||||
|
||||
There is no sense of urgency, this will come when it comes, be a week, be it a month be it six.
|
||||
|
||||
We don't care, just be nice and lets make this community as Excellent as we can!
|
||||
|
||||
Remember one of the only ways to counter the Cointelpro we have seen is by being overly nice, so treat all the other apes as if you're dating and you wanna get to first base.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/gval82iyht171.png?width=400&format=png&auto=webp&s=2155b97e25c57656405e297dd6cd0387cb26b803)
|
||||
|
||||
remember none of this is financial advice, I'm so retarded I'm not allowed to go to the zoo 'cause they'll put me in the cage with the rest of my ape brothers.
|
||||
|
||||
If anything happens throughout the day we will be adding it here.
|
||||
|
||||
backups:
|
||||
|
||||
<https://twitter.com/rensole>
|
||||
|
||||
<https://twitter.com/PinkCatsOnAcid>
|
||||
|
||||
<https://twitter.com/RedChessQueen99>
|
||||
|
||||
Also a side note, The NYSE will be closed on Monday the 31st for Memorial day. just so no one forgets ;)
|
||||
|
||||
~~Addendum:~~ ~~the stock market will also be closing earlier today, at 2 p.m.~~
|
||||
|
||||
I accidentally mixed up the NYSE and the BONDS market, my bad
|
163
Daily-Synopsis-Archives/2021-06-01-Synopsis.md
Normal file
163
Daily-Synopsis-Archives/2021-06-01-Synopsis.md
Normal file
@ -0,0 +1,163 @@
|
||||
The Daily Stonk 06-01-2021
|
||||
==========================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/rensole](https://www.reddit.com/user/rensole/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/npq4vp/the_daily_stonk_06012021/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
|
||||
[Daily News 🦍💎🙌🚀](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22Daily%20News%20%F0%9F%A6%8D%F0%9F%92%8E%F0%9F%99%8C%F0%9F%9A%80%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/uve8vgz9dm271.png?width=1600&format=png&auto=webp&s=8e65c01169ff4800c472dede5fa9dd5ad7463e66)
|
||||
|
||||
Good Morning San Diago,
|
||||
|
||||
I am Rensole and this is your daily news.
|
||||
|
||||
Does anyone smell that?
|
||||
|
||||
*insert flashy intro card*
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/bkoyqa0cdm271.png?width=680&format=png&auto=webp&s=19967667ff879bd5cd124a2c8c1b3f66b268d628)
|
||||
|
||||
Let's start with the basics once more!
|
||||
|
||||
0:00
|
||||
|
||||
1:07
|
||||
|
||||
VOTE!
|
||||
|
||||
Be sure to vote with your shares, don't think it won't matter because it does, over-voting would show there are lots of things being wrong and would give the company a much needed excuse to call their votes back in.
|
||||
|
||||
Also for the 6/9 (nice) annual shareholders meeting, remember that we will most likely not see a lot happen to the stock immediately after this because if they have something planned (NFT/Dividend/ recounting their own shares etc) it can be mentioned there but could still take some time before it can be implemented.
|
||||
|
||||
Like the NFT is set to launch around the 14th, if they were to give a dividend it could also be a few weeks, a recount can take a lot longer though, due to the audit process being very specific it may take a month or maybe longer (I can't say, or imagine, how long auditing the shares would take as this is a scale because the situation unprecedented) and there is a chance the vote count can be doctored to make sure it shows a non accurate vote count, regardless of everything just hodl and wait, as news reports have already stated SHF have list close to 2 billion usd just from Monday till Wednesday, but also these are "paper" losses as there is only an actual loss once they close their positions.
|
||||
|
||||
<https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nlpz4h/your_votes_are_important_the_time_to_vote_is_now/>
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/rqkm5rjcjm271.png?width=960&format=png&auto=webp&s=fc4c10bcbe371f46a99714afa46f886ff752d608)
|
||||
|
||||
Congrats on the upgrades!
|
||||
|
||||
First of all I'd like to start with giving a shout out to two fellow mods, [u/bye_triangle](https://www.reddit.com/u/bye_triangle/) and [u/pinkcatsonacid](https://www.reddit.com/u/pinkcatsonacid/), as has become normal for us, in the beginning moderators get limited powers (just so we know they're doing a good job etc etc), well both [u/bye_triangle](https://www.reddit.com/u/bye_triangle/) and [u/pinkcatsonacid](https://www.reddit.com/u/pinkcatsonacid/) have gone above and beyond on many occasion and are as of right now full moderators.
|
||||
|
||||
[u/redchessqueen99](https://www.reddit.com/u/redchessqueen99/) had already made a post announcing this but I just wanted to give these awesome apes a shout out myself and congratulate them <3
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/9zv9rx9tdm271.png?width=960&format=png&auto=webp&s=922e358a5b782bb4dbe2216db9c07151a7e7e16b)
|
||||
|
||||
Having a friend at a HF is so hot right now....
|
||||
|
||||
Gamestop stopped geoblocking their website
|
||||
|
||||
As some people over the past week have noticed GameStop has opened up their websites accessibility to worldwide instead of usa only, this is very bullish imo. This because if you look at websites like Amazon they have the same website available everywhere, and the products available change, meaning there is a fairly decent chance we can see a worldwide shift in how they do business.
|
||||
|
||||
Gamestop used to be very different from how their German/Australian/Usa/Canadian stores did business, among which there were different names (GameStop, Ebgames, Gamestopzing, etc) so there is a shot they will be looking into unifying these (given the international recognition the brand now has it would be smart), then adding fulfillment centers outperforming Amazon in delivery time, this is a lot but it all starts with a simple website being accessible to everyone.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/2kbjymkxgm271.png?width=640&format=png&auto=webp&s=7ec71585f8f0cad12e30fbe7eda6ce49b6647c6e)
|
||||
|
||||
DTC-2021-005
|
||||
|
||||
I just want to remind everyone that this document has been missing for a few months now, it was "offline te be reformatted" due to a "formatting issue", but Gary Gensler has only been working for 7 weeks...
|
||||
|
||||
Not a lot of comments here, just making sure (just like other apes on the sub) that this important document doesn't fade into obscurity).
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/lqbadq4zgm271.png?width=500&format=png&auto=webp&s=0b4f0af13e230682fe363ccdee4f60c79562b00d)
|
||||
|
||||
Fud
|
||||
|
||||
A clever ape did a writeup of all the FUD we have already seen and overcome, it's nice to look back because the only way to make sure we don't repeat history is to study it.
|
||||
|
||||
<https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/np3v7r/fud_campaigns_weve_endured_so_far/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf>
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/a34cd4f1hm271.png?width=717&format=png&auto=webp&s=0e70374e1f291d16d2987eee1116294c5d121172)
|
||||
|
||||
All apes this long weekend
|
||||
|
||||
Etoro
|
||||
|
||||
Now this is the juicy bit, we've seen a lot of speculation on this one, we have seen people extrapolate information from the statement that Etoro has 1.5% of GME holders, then we've seen people think that this means that we have a couple of options
|
||||
|
||||
1. gme has 89 million sharews
|
||||
|
||||
2. gme has over 1000 million shares
|
||||
|
||||
3. etoro is stating amount of users that they have they have 1.5% (meaning 98.5% of their users dont have gme)
|
||||
|
||||
4. something else entirely
|
||||
|
||||
Now we can't answer for sure what this means, I'll be looking into it today and reading peoples DD on this and see if I can form a wrinkle, after that I'll be contacting the CEO from Etoro (full transparency like always: due to some weird happenstance a twitter user put us in contact and we had a brief interaction, hopefully due to having this line of communication open I can ask him a question about this, but again there is no security that he will even answer, nor does he have to as I'm still just a regular ape and not some bigshot), and for the people saying "why the hell would he talk to you?"... dude I've been wondering the same thing 🤷♂️
|
||||
|
||||
Again take these numbers with a grain of salt and a bucket of "inconclusive"
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/a8oxbtffhm271.png?width=960&format=png&auto=webp&s=1a948bbe47f2fb794509f9599b92a78139c9de3d)
|
||||
|
||||
For (R)/Cohan!
|
||||
|
||||
Citadel is filing form D's
|
||||
|
||||
A smarter ape has written a piece about the recent filings of Citadel, namely their form D amendments, and what they mean and what it could imply, give it a read [here](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/np6f78/citadel_has_been_filing_form_d_amendments_and_ill/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf)
|
||||
|
||||
I wont give a synopsis of this because it's fairly short and well and easily understandable.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/prkjdp8ohm271.png?width=960&format=png&auto=webp&s=6e3b93569773d16ca66b9885f37ed2d629b9822e)
|
||||
|
||||
Parting thoughts
|
||||
|
||||
Now before I go slip back into my cave for the day I do have some thoughts that wont fit in the news stories naturally so I'd rather do it here separate from the rest.
|
||||
|
||||
First of all guys chill the fuck out, there are trolls, shills etc, these people are doing what they're doing for one thing only, to get you to respond on an emotional level, don't get lured out and just relax, remember who benefits from shaking["The jar of ants"](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nn5xnf/the_jar_of_ants/)?
|
||||
|
||||
There is no sense of urgency to speculate on Etoro or other traders total amount of shares, this has become a game of patience, if Etoro/degiro/yomama has 10% of the float or a 100%, I believe at this point we've found out that we at least own the float (AT MINIMUM) atleast once, meaning... it doesn't matter how many shares there are (even though it would be cool to know) again, the mantra of "Buy-Hold-vote-zen" applies, be zen, be chill just wait.
|
||||
|
||||
The shareholders meeting, I've seen a lot of people talking in a way that everything will pop off at the meeting itself, don't hype yourself up to much my friend, even though I would love to have this pop off then I believe that the day of the annual sharehodlers meeting may be a sideways day. Again No dates, so only Jaques your tits to about 60%, no full Jaquesing (even if I personally hope it will pop off at the same day, lets remain realistic ;) )
|
||||
|
||||
And as always, Expect fuckery
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/7vwl7b8yjm271.png?width=554&format=png&auto=webp&s=f992f4f07dd3eec3b404596ba1f736fca2eeba48)
|
||||
|
||||
EXCELLENT!
|
||||
|
||||
Be friendly, help others!
|
||||
|
||||
as always we are here from all different walks of life and all different countries.
|
||||
|
||||
This doesn't matter as we are all apes in here, and apes are friends.
|
||||
|
||||
Doesn't matter if you're a silverback a chimp or a bonobo.
|
||||
|
||||
We help each other, we care for each other.
|
||||
|
||||
Ape don't fight ape, apes help other apes
|
||||
|
||||
this helps us weed out the shills really fast, as if everyone is helpful, the ones who aren't stand out.
|
||||
|
||||
remember the fundamentals of this company are great, so for the love of god if someone starts with trying to spread FUD, remind yourself of the fundamentals.
|
||||
|
||||
There is no sense of urgency, this will come when it comes, be a week, be it a month be it six.
|
||||
|
||||
We don't care, just be nice and lets make this community as Excellent as we can!
|
||||
|
||||
Remember one of the only ways to counter the Cointelpro we have seen is by being overly nice, so treat all the other apes as if you're dating and you wanna get to first base.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/ke1l5aq5km271.png?width=400&format=png&auto=webp&s=b4a0fbd4174f8aeac5e56f5451d9ff692aae6023)
|
||||
|
||||
remember none of this is financial advice, I'm so retarded I'm not allowed to go to the zoo 'cause they'll put me in the cage with the rest of my ape brothers.
|
||||
|
||||
If anything happens throughout the day we will be adding it here.
|
||||
|
||||
backups:
|
||||
|
||||
<https://twitter.com/rensole>
|
||||
|
||||
<https://twitter.com/PinkCatsOnAcid>
|
||||
|
||||
<https://twitter.com/RedChessQueen99>
|
||||
|
||||
Edit:
|
||||
|
||||
DFV HAS SPOKEN!, HE IS INDEED A CAT!
|
||||
|
||||
<https://twitter.com/TheRoaringKitty/status/1399727581369409539>
|
Some files were not shown because too many files have changed in this diff Show More
Reference in New Issue
Block a user