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66
00-Getting-Started/2021-05-27-GME-Explained-for-New-Apes.md
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66
00-Getting-Started/2021-05-27-GME-Explained-for-New-Apes.md
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@ -0,0 +1,66 @@
|
||||
GME explained for new apes
|
||||
==========================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/lawrgood](https://www.reddit.com/user/lawrgood/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/comments/nm40vh/gme_explained_for_new_apes/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
[🔬 DD 📊](https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/search?q=flair_name%3A%22%F0%9F%94%AC%20DD%20%F0%9F%93%8A%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||
If you are new to the sub or have been struggling to wrap your head around the DD (due diligence), hopefully this can make things clearer.
|
||||
|
||||
Why is GME's price changing?
|
||||
|
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Short hedge funds (SHF) sold shares that they didn't own because they thought GME would go bankrupt.
|
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|
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Think of it like an airline. There's only so many seats on the flight. The hedgies thought the flight was going to be cancelled so they printed some fake tickets and sold those too. Then the flight didn't get cancelled. Now, because there are only so many seats available, they need to stand at the gate and buy back the extra tickets, then rip them up so no-one tries to use them. It doesn't matter if that ticket was a real one or the fake one. They need to buy it and destroy it until only the original number remains.
|
||||
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The problem is, everyone is really excited for the trip, so no-one wants to sell. So the price of the tickets is too high for the hedgies. Short term, they are printing even more tickets to give them cash to deal with the people at the front of the queue, but all that does is make the line longer. And there is still only the original number of seats on the plane.
|
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How can they sell shares that they don't own?
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If SHF think a stock will go down in price, they are allowed to locate and borrow shares from other people, sell them and try to buy them back later. To keep the metaphor going, they can give you a few bucks to hold your ticket and promise to sell it to me at today's price. Then if the price goes down they can buy it from you at the cheaper price to deliver to me.
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What we think has happened is, they didn't just borrow your ticket, they photocopied it and lent it to someone else at the same time as they sold it to me. As in, they lent out the shares they had borrowed. Because they have a few days to sort that out before anyone notices, they usually get away with it. Normally people buy and sell all the time so it gets lost in the noise.
|
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|
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Isn't relending shares you've borrowed illegal?
|
||||
|
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Yes. You aren't allowed to sell shares that don't exist. If you see the term "naked short selling" this is what they mean. There may be some misreporting going on to cover up the fact but punishments are relatively lean historically such as a proportionally small fine. There's been a lot of regulation changes in a short period of time which may be gearing up to deal with that.
|
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|
||||
What's with the massive price spikes every so often?
|
||||
|
||||
This is probably cyclical. If you see T+21 or T+35 mentioned this is referring to the time after a trade that they have to find that share they promised to give you. Market Makers get a little longer than your standard HF. Because shares are so hard to find, it could be that SHF have to keep kicking the can down the road. In our airline metaphor, this is them printing extra tickets. T+21 and T+35 would be the day that people are arriving to collect their tickets so the SHF needs to order more from the printers. The last week of May was when these two dates overlapped so lots of pressure to find shares to deliver.
|
||||
|
||||
If the price keeps going up, who will pay?
|
||||
|
||||
First the SHF has to buy back what they can from the market. If they run out of cash, the clearing house auction off all their stuff and buy back with that. If that's not enough, the clearing house is on the hook because they rubber stamped the trades. They can use the cash they have but, if they run out, they can ask for cash from their members.
|
||||
|
||||
If that isn't enough, the DTCC is on the hook for failing to keep the records straight. If they run out of cash, it's down to the government for not intervening in the fraud soon enough. When it gets to this point, trillions will have been spent buying back shares.
|
||||
|
||||
How long can they keep this going?
|
||||
|
||||
No-one knows for sure. It seems that SHF are running low on money already. There have been massive sell offs across all their other holdings. This is why, when the market tanks, it's usually at the same time GME is doing well.
|
||||
|
||||
There have been lots of rule changes too. The clearing houses are asking for more collateral (the money or assets that needs to be put up as assurance in order to keep or establish these short positions). They can also ask for reports more often and can force members to close their positions sooner.
|
||||
|
||||
How do we know the SHF haven't bought back enough shares?
|
||||
|
||||
There may be some misreporting going on. SHF's may be mislabeling short positions as long, not reporting them at all, or putting out press releases of how they have covered their positions. The fines for doing so are relatively minor, and if it means the difference between going bankrupt or getting another day to dig themselves out of a hole, there's a lot of incentive to cheat.
|
||||
|
||||
There's been a large increase in whistleblower awards handed out by the SEC this year for information that leads to a penalty.
|
||||
|
||||
The push to vote will shine a light on this. There is a shareholder meeting on June 9th and many have already voted. The vote count will give an insight into how many fake shares have been sold. Even this number will be lower than the true number. Remember that not all holders can/will vote.
|
||||
|
||||
There are also other indicators that shares are hard to get hold of. Volumes traded each day have been declining meaning fewer shares are flying back and forth between traders. Shares have been harder to borrow than they were before.
|
||||
|
||||
What's the company like?
|
||||
|
||||
GME have had some great news lately. The incoming chairman is an e-commerce legend (Ryan Cohen) who is putting together a team to take the company into the future. He's already built a successful e-com company (Chewy) and is very customer focused with an eye for quality.
|
||||
|
||||
The latest news is that they are developing an NFT to be built using Ethereum. This will allow for digital games to be traded in and resold. An NFT is an encrypted record of who owns a specific digital asset. When you buy a game download, a corresponding digital coin would be minted that says it belongs to you. If you want to sell it on, you could transfer ownership of that coin just like you do with bitcoin or Ethereum now.
|
||||
|
||||
They also have no debt and $500+ million dollars in the bank.
|
||||
|
||||
None of this is investment advice. Do not take advice from internet strangers. I am in no way qualified to give it. If you think I've got any part wrong, call me out in the comments. If you think I need to add something, ask. If you have more questions, I will try to answer but, I repeat, I know almost nothing.
|
@ -0,0 +1,13 @@
|
||||
For new Apes: This is what happened yesterday
|
||||
=============================================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/derAres](https://www.reddit.com/user/derAres/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/og5llh/for_new_apes_this_is_what_happened_yesterday/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
|
||||
[HODL 💎🙌](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22HODL%20%F0%9F%92%8E%F0%9F%99%8C%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||

|
@ -0,0 +1,34 @@
|
||||
Cost basis and trade price issues
|
||||
=================================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/dlauer](https://www.reddit.com/user/dlauer/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nhtt04/cost_basis_and_trade_price_issues/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
[Education 👨🏫 | Data 🔢](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22Education%20%F0%9F%91%A8%E2%80%8D%F0%9F%8F%AB%20%7C%20Data%20%F0%9F%94%A2%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||
Hi everyone,
|
||||
|
||||
There have been a lot of posts recently on these two subjects - crazy cost basis reports when transferring out of Robinhood, and some anecdotal reports (or maybe just a single report?) about some fractional share executions outside of the NBBO. I've made some comments on those threads but I thought it might be helpful to put everything together in one place.
|
||||
|
||||
First, I don't mean to throw cold water on these theories all the time, or to constantly be talking about technical glitches. But I have seen how many of these systems work, and it's also common sense to think about incentives - firms invest in technology that makes them money (like trading), and they don't invest in technology for cost centers (like record keeping and compliance). Front office trading systems are sophisticated and high-performance. Back office record keeping systems are often ancient, and always under-invested in. This is especially true when regulatory fines are little more than a cost of doing business / slap on the wrist.
|
||||
|
||||
If you want to see this in action, just go to [FINRA BrokerCheck](https://brokercheck.finra.org/) and search for a broker. As I explained in another comment: " Lookup a broker and start looking at their violations (I've done this systematically in the past when evaluating broker dark pool enforcement action risk for institutional asset managers). It's a constant stream of OATS violations (the Order Audit Trail System is a record of all orders and trades that a broker reports to FINRA, being replaced by the CAT), order marking violations, failure to produce trade records, mistakes with order flag records, etc. A constant stream of technology problems. I even [presented](https://www.sec.gov/comments/4-652/4652-32.pdf) to the SEC on this after the Knight Capital incident 9 years ago." This is not meant, in any way, to excuse the behavior. Record keeping mistakes should honestly be criminal - without accurate records, regulators can't do their jobs. So under-investment in compliance and record keeping systems makes sense in both ways for these firms - the fines are paltry, and if they're trying to avoid detection, shitty record quality is a feature, not a bug.
|
||||
|
||||
Now, all of that being said - for those of you who have gotten these insane cost bases when transferring out of Robinhood - [file a whistleblower complaint](https://www.sec.gov/whistleblower). Seriously, this is your best course of action. If there is, in fact, a systematic problem with Robinhood back office systems, and the SEC goes in and fines them, you could get a cut of that. You might think it's just GME, but it's very likely that it affects other stocks too. And keep good records of your trades for filing taxes so that these mistakes by RH don't affect you.
|
||||
|
||||
Next, on the topic - I have no idea why you're seeing insane fractional share cost bases when transferring, especially when you didn't buy fractional shares. I have no good explanation for it. My assumption is that it's a result of under-investment in back office technology. I can't possibly see how it is a reflection of any actual trading though. Keep in mind that these are tax records - they are not trade reports. There's a big difference. And even though these records appear to be all messed up, it doesn't really mean that any trades were executed at that price. For those of you who did transact in fractional shares, you have to also know that there is very little regulation around fractional shares. Fractions are not reported to the tape/market, and while firms are under a best execution obligation, that obligation is hardly enforced at all. So most of the rules I talk about are kind of thrown out the door when dealing with fractional shares, because they are not really considered within the current regulatory structure. I would also caution that any fractional shares traded outside of regular trading hours (9:30am ET - 4pm ET) can likely trade at any price, and I would never execute a trade like that.
|
||||
|
||||
Ok, finally let's talk about the NBBO and tradethroughs. As I've explained before, the National Best Bid and Offer is the best price in the market, and is protected during regular trading hours. This means that brokers, off-exchange trading systems, and exchanges have safeguards in place to ensure that trades are not executed outside the NBBO. This system is not perfect. A while back there was an effort to have more disclosure for retail brokers and internalizers by the FIF. That has mostly stopped since the new Rule 606 was passed, but I found that Fidelity is [still disclosing](https://www.fidelity.com/bin-public/060_www_fidelity_com/documents/FIF-FBS-retail-execution-quality-stats.pdf) these extra stats. You can see that for most orders, 98% - 99% of the shares get executed at or better than the NBBO:
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/dxc1kgm6eh071.png?width=744&format=png&auto=webp&s=ec0406b878fc475b756bc9328618b6c9f8142940)
|
||||
|
||||
Why isn't it 100%? Generally speaking, it's because there aren't enough shares available at that price. If there's only 100 shares on the best offer, and you want to buy 200 shares, you're not guaranteed to get them all executed at the offer (although wholesalers like Citadel talk a lot about size improvement along with price improvement, but that's an entirely different conversation about how they goose and manipulate those metrics). Citadel stopped providing these reports in 2019, but you can see that back then [theirs looked similar](https://s3.amazonaws.com/citadel-wordpress-prd101/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2016/09/09175131/FIF-Rule-605-606-WG-CitadelSecurities_Retail-Execution-Quality-Stats_Q1_2019.pdf).
|
||||
|
||||
Now, I cannot speak to anecdotes - I can only deal with data. I know there are claims about some crazy execution prices out there. I can assure you that these are not systematic issues, but it's always possible that there are crazy trades. That's why FINRA and the exchanges have [Clearly Erroneous rules](https://www.finra.org/rules-guidance/rulebooks/finra-rules/11892). This rule would not exist if it wasn't needed, and when I traded we had to invoke it at times. Sometimes crazy trades happen. When they do, alerts go off, and you get them busted. Remember that for every trade there's someone on the other side of it, and if you got to sell some GME at $2600, that means someone is on the hook to pay that. That person would be incentivized to have that trade busted, and has recourse to do so.
|
||||
|
||||
Ok, finally some have questioned why I generally assume Hanlon's Razor - don't ascribe to malice that which can be explained by incompetence. I'm not as quick to accuse anyone of criminality as others. I'm comfortable with that. I'm a scientist, and I need to see data. When I see it, and it's convincing, then I'm comfortable making serious accusations. If that's naive, I'm ok with that. It doesn't make me fight any less to improve markets, and to improve transparency and access to data, so that we can have informed conversations and debates. And as you'll see in an article I have coming out soon, it doesn't make me hesitant to fight Big Tech when there's a serious fight to be had (you have to keep in mind that most of my day job is focused on tech and AI these days). But it does drive me to wait on convincing data before making such accusations. That's my style, and it's not for everyone.
|
||||
|
||||
I hope this is helpful. I'll keep trying to answer questions when I can. Market structure is extremely complex, and even when trying to explain it, it's tough to distill it into something understandable when you haven't been immersed in it.
|
@ -0,0 +1,82 @@
|
||||
MARGIN CALL VS. FORCED LIQUIDATION
|
||||
==================================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/Dwellerofthecrags](https://www.reddit.com/user/Dwellerofthecrags/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/ni0xmw/margin_call_vs_forced_liquidation/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
[Education 👨🏫 | Data 🔢](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22Education%20%F0%9F%91%A8%E2%80%8D%F0%9F%8F%AB%20%7C%20Data%20%F0%9F%94%A2%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||
Over the past several weeks I've noticed several posts or comments that lead me to believe there may be a bit of a misunderstanding about what a MARGIN CALL is. Because I love all of my fellow HODLers, I am not going to single out any of the posts or comments.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/x6wbwddgzi071.jpg?width=800&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=b65d44ff3b998ee4f2dcd65212a83312771ac210)
|
||||
|
||||
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/ERNu7C-W4AAleb4.jpg
|
||||
|
||||
I know that I, like many of you, have added a bunch a wrinkles since January thanks to many of the brilliant Apes writing DD and the Silverbacks coming and doing AMAs and I'm hoping that you, like me, never get tired of adding more. Since there seems to be a little bit of a misunderstanding about what a margin call actually is, I thought it would be good to provide some clarification and add a few more wrinkles to all of our smooth brains.
|
||||
|
||||
Also, if you're looking for a way to pass the time while waiting for the MOASS, I suggest reading through <https://www.investopedia.com/>. There's seriously a ton of ELIA information about investing and the market. This is of course after you catch-up on any of the [AMAs](https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCI4EET9NJPWxUuXGlG6fxPA), [Dr. T's book](https://www.amazon.com/Naked-Short-Greedy-Streets-Failure-ebook/dp/B08XXXRH7T/ref=tmm_kin_swatch_0?_encoding=UTF8&qid=&sr=), and the essential market related movies (MARGIN CALL, The Big Short, The Wall Street Conspiracy, Boiler Room, Wolf of Wall Street, etc.)
|
||||
|
||||
Now for what you came here for:
|
||||
|
||||
What is a margin call?
|
||||
|
||||
Generic definition: ["A margin call is a request for additional collateral when a trader's position or investment drops in value."](https://qz.com/1991073/how-many-funds-are-a-margin-call-away-from-failing-like-archegos/)
|
||||
|
||||
This is more of a description of how it works between a retail investor and broker but the principle is the same:
|
||||
|
||||
["A margin call occurs when the value of a margin account falls below the account's maintenance margin requirement. It is a demand by a brokerage firm (lender/Bank) to bring the margin account's balance up to the minimum maintenance margin requirement. To satisfy a margin call, the investor (Borrower/Hedge Fund/Institution) of the margin account must either deposit additional funds, deposit unmargined securities, or sell (close) current positions."](https://corporatefinanceinstitute.com/resources/knowledge/trading-investing/margin-call/)
|
||||
|
||||
More in depth description about what a margin call is here: <https://www.investopedia.com/terms/m/margincall.asp>
|
||||
|
||||
TL;DR: A margin call is the notice that a borrower's collateral has become inadequate for their current investment position. They must either deposit more collateral or close a portion of their "at risk" positions. It is not a forced closeout. A forced closeout is what happens if the borrower is unable to satisfy the margin call. As long as a borrower is continually able to satisfy the requirements of the margin call(s), they are able to keep their position.
|
||||
|
||||
> *SPECULATION: This explains why we are seeing so many "Pump & Dumps" of securities that Citadel & Friends have positions in. They're printing money off of these other SCAMS in order to satisfy the margin requirements for the positions they currently hold while they string them out to try to slowly unwind them over time.*
|
||||
|
||||
DO NOT DAY TRADE GME! DO NOT FALL FOR ANY OF THESE OTHER PUMPED SECURITIES/CRYPTO! DON'T FEED THE BEARS, THEY'LL EAT YOU!
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/msscs7u5ij071.jpg?width=960&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=0b0bc230858c6cce5120bc04910073938c0d0528)
|
||||
|
||||
https://i.redd.it/9llkyh6lvo141.jpg
|
||||
|
||||
[What is Forced Liquidation?](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/f/forcedliquidation.asp)
|
||||
|
||||
Basic Definition:
|
||||
|
||||
"Forced selling or forced liquidation usually entails the involuntary sale of assets or securities to create liquidity in the event of an uncontrollable or unforeseen situation."
|
||||
|
||||
"Within the investing world, if a margin call is issued and the investor is unable to bring their investment up to the minimum requirements, the broker has the right to sell off the positions."
|
||||
|
||||
THIS IS THE SPECIFIC TYPE OF LIQUIDATION WE ARE WAITING FOR:
|
||||
|
||||
"The opposite of forced selling in a margin account is a forced buy-in. This occurs in a short seller's account when the original lender of the shares recalls them or when the broker is no longer able to borrow shares for the shorted position. When a forced buy-in is triggered, shares are bought back to close the short position. The account holder might not be given notice prior to the act."
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/k7xbxtn60j071.jpg?width=500&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=39079ad5c8e5f5054c711212c0045fa5ba28b747)
|
||||
|
||||
https://news.ewingirrigation.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/MISC-Ice-Melting1.jpg
|
||||
|
||||
TL;DR: Margin Calls are merely steps towards what we really want...a forced buy-in! As long as the shorts continue to meet margin requirements, they will be able to continue to kick the can down the road. A price spike that pushes them beyond their ability to meet the margin requirements, a massive depreciation of their other positions, or regulatory action is needed to trigger the forced selling.
|
||||
|
||||
This is the way to MOASS:
|
||||
|
||||
1. BUY & HODL GME
|
||||
|
||||
2. STOP BUYING OTHER GIMICKS/DAY-TRADING/ETC. (Don't feed the bears)
|
||||
|
||||
3. WAIT PATIENTLY FOR FORCED BUY-IN, MARGIN CALLS ARE JUST STEPS TOWARDS THAT END. WHEN SHORTS CAN NO LONGER MEET THE CALL...
|
||||
|
||||
🚀🚀 🚀🚀 🚀🚀 🚀🚀
|
||||
|
||||
*Let me know if I missed anything...*
|
||||
|
||||
Edit: added #DontFeedTheBears
|
||||
|
||||
Edit 2: [u/InvincibearREAL](https://www.reddit.com/u/InvincibearREAL/) pointed out that I forgot to include the most obvious movie to be watched (especially considering the post topic): Margin Call ... so I added it to the list
|
||||
|
||||
Edit 3: The best TL;DR in ape language courtesy of [u/cryptocached](https://www.reddit.com/u/cryptocached/)
|
||||
|
||||
"Margin call is a shart. It stinks and can be a little messy, but it's really just a warning. If you don't heed that warning and take care of your business in a timely fashion, you'll shit your pants in a forced liquidation."
|
||||
|
||||
Edit 4: Created [visual TL;DR Post](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/ni9oc1/margin_call_vs_forced_liquidation_in_ape_ape/)
|
@ -0,0 +1,30 @@
|
||||
Explain w/ Crayons Series: What is Naked Shorting? Indicators GME is Being Naked Short
|
||||
======================================================================================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/AaronJamesArq](https://www.reddit.com/user/AaronJamesArq/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nk40b6/explain_w_crayons_series_what_is_naked_shorting/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
[Discussion 🦍](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22Discussion%20%F0%9F%A6%8D%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||

|
||||
|
||||

|
||||
|
||||

|
||||
|
||||

|
||||
|
||||

|
||||
|
||||

|
||||
|
||||

|
||||
|
||||

|
||||
|
||||

|
||||
|
||||

|
@ -0,0 +1,31 @@
|
||||
🖍 Explain w/ Crayons Series: Fundamentals of $GME! Why $GME Should Be Trading Higher
|
||||
=====================================================================================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/AaronJamesArq](https://www.reddit.com/user/AaronJamesArq/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nkouqs/explain_w_crayons_series_fundamentals_of_gme_why/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
[Education 👨🏫 | Data 🔢](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22Education%20%F0%9F%91%A8%E2%80%8D%F0%9F%8F%AB%20%7C%20Data%20%F0%9F%94%A2%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||

|
||||
|
||||

|
||||
|
||||

|
||||
|
||||

|
||||
|
||||

|
||||
|
||||

|
||||
|
||||

|
||||
|
||||

|
||||
|
||||

|
||||
|
||||

|
||||
|
@ -0,0 +1,32 @@
|
||||
Crayon Explanation 💬🖍 GME and NFTs: Bullish Thesis + Possible Catalyst for MOASS
|
||||
==================================================================================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/AaronJamesArq](https://www.reddit.com/user/AaronJamesArq/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nlgnnj/crayon_explanation_gme_and_nfts_bullish_thesis/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
[Education 👨🏫 | Data 🔢](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22Education%20%F0%9F%91%A8%E2%80%8D%F0%9F%8F%AB%20%7C%20Data%20%F0%9F%94%A2%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||

|
||||
|
||||

|
||||
|
||||

|
||||
|
||||

|
||||
|
||||

|
||||
|
||||

|
||||
|
||||

|
||||
|
||||

|
||||
|
||||

|
||||
|
||||

|
||||
|
||||

|
@ -0,0 +1,36 @@
|
||||
Crayon Explanation 💬🖍 Exit Strategy Vocabulary Refresher Lesson For Apes
|
||||
==========================================================================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/AaronJamesArq](https://www.reddit.com/user/AaronJamesArq/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nm5jvp/crayon_explanation_exit_strategy_vocabulary/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
[Education 👨🏫 | Data 🔢](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22Education%20%F0%9F%91%A8%E2%80%8D%F0%9F%8F%AB%20%7C%20Data%20%F0%9F%94%A2%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||

|
||||
|
||||

|
||||
|
||||

|
||||
|
||||

|
||||
|
||||

|
||||
|
||||

|
||||
|
||||

|
||||
|
||||

|
||||
|
||||

|
||||
|
||||

|
||||
|
||||

|
||||
|
||||

|
||||
|
||||

|
267
01-Must-Read/2021-05-23-We-Are-All-Fucked.md
Normal file
267
01-Must-Read/2021-05-23-We-Are-All-Fucked.md
Normal file
@ -0,0 +1,267 @@
|
||||
We're All Fucked
|
||||
================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/CoffeeLaxative](https://www.reddit.com/user/CoffeeLaxative/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nj1guf/were_all_fucked/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
[Education 👨🏫 | Data 🔢](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22Education%20%F0%9F%91%A8%E2%80%8D%F0%9F%8F%AB%20%7C%20Data%20%F0%9F%94%A2%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||
I have no background in macroeconomics. In fact, I'm in healthcare. However, this is what I've gathered in all of my 3 months of investing, learning more about econ and finance than my own field. You tell me what you think and where we stand. The title of my post... pretty much sums up my thoughts. If I made any mistakes, please let me know. After all, I'm a smooth 🧠.
|
||||
|
||||
1\. S&P 500 inflation-adjusted earnings yield 🔥
|
||||
|
||||
You may have seen this picture from this [post](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/niem73/sp_500_inflationadjusted_earnings_yield_falls/). It's the S&P 500 inflation-adjusted earnings yield that's now falling below zero, setting a 40-year low. The last times it fell below 0 were in 2008 (housing bubble), 2000 (dotcom bubble), 1987 (Black Monday), 1973 (recession). And it's going under again. Here's [another post about it, with Crescat Capital's letter.](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nil0ww/sp_500_negative_yield_crescat_capital_letter_may/) Essentially, impending boom ?
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/jgvo3ctrpb171.png?width=721&format=png&auto=webp&s=6417c2f97f4dbbdfb4c114fff9abfa1b0fe034f8)
|
||||
|
||||
2\. The Repo Market 💣
|
||||
|
||||
It's been all the talk lately. Lately, the Fed has been conducting reverse repo operations at higher and higher amounts. On May 20th, we hit the 5th highest ever with $351B and 48 participating counterparties.
|
||||
|
||||
Then on May 21st, reverse repos reached $369B with 52 participants! Compare this to two weeks ago where we had less than half that amount, $155B on May 6th. Here's a chart showing reverse repos from January til today. Notice the exponential increase ? Ya, shit is fucked.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/cf707nbxpb171.png?width=793&format=png&auto=webp&s=a804fd59f761970edd40cf1a76b2ca4e8fb5ac65)
|
||||
|
||||
Data from: <https://apps.newyorkfed.org/markets/autorates/temp>
|
||||
|
||||
Edit: 05/25: reverse repo @ $432.96 billion.
|
||||
|
||||
If you are not familiar with the repo market, I recommend reading this: [The Imminent Liquidity Crisis & Reverse Repos Usage](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nhepn1/the_imminent_liquidity_crisis_reverse_repos_usage/) or watching George Gammon's YouTube video (Repo Market Rates Turn Negative).
|
||||
|
||||
Wat mean? Means there is too much cash in the system and not enough collateral (like treasury bonds). It means there's an imbalance between dollars (which are essentially IOUs) and whatever is backing the dollar's worth.
|
||||
|
||||
Why imbalance ?
|
||||
|
||||
- Quantitative easing (money printer go BRRRR)
|
||||
|
||||
- Rehypothecation (the same treasury bond being lent to A for 10k, who lent it to B for 10k, who lent it to C for 10k, ... but there is only 1 treasury bond and now 30k was lent.)
|
||||
|
||||
- Probably more reasons
|
||||
|
||||
So now, nobody wants $ (except you and I) and all of these institutions want treasury bonds. And as of May 21, treasury bonds have a negative interest rate! Source: <https://www.dtcc.com/charts/dtcc-gcf-repo-index>
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/fbzehm75rb171.png?width=474&format=png&auto=webp&s=860034b8555e891462abedd4753be32043dfece4)
|
||||
|
||||
U. S. Treasury < 30-year maturity (371487AE9).
|
||||
|
||||
In other words, banks and institutions want these treasury bonds so bad, they're ready to pay (lend) what it's worth and pay some more cash to get their hands on it.
|
||||
|
||||
3\. Crypto Correction / Crash ⚡
|
||||
|
||||
The crypto market dropped $1 trillion in the past 2 weeks ($700 billion last week and ~$300 billion the week before if I got my facts right). The leading coin went from ~$59k to ~$30k and all other coins followed.
|
||||
|
||||
So there's a LOT of differing opinions on this matter, on why it happened... Elon Musk, China, etc. Let's agree that it was probably a combination of everything. It also seems that the leading coin followed a textbook Wyckoff distribution, essentially a method to fleece retail investors (yet again!).
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/hynaaywmrb171.png?width=1759&format=png&auto=webp&s=d70c230eed55df463d46d74b763ae978fe064896)
|
||||
|
||||
Huge volume spike on May 19th. Very sus
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/kmksmruzrb171.png?width=738&format=png&auto=webp&s=3ce95a840845a0178cd303acf4acef3b938192bc)
|
||||
|
||||
The sell off occurred mostly between 8:50 - 8:55 AM EST and continued til 9:10 AM on May 19th.
|
||||
|
||||
What happened on May 19th ? Oh, right! OCC had previously issued a letter to members notifying them of temporary increase in deposits for clearing fund size totaling [$588M due at 9:00 AM on 5/19/2021](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nftyg4/occ_has_issued_a_statement_to_all_clearing/). So, let's all agree the crash was caused by a combination of everything.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/n8lb7266sb171.png?width=1048&format=png&auto=webp&s=d2400092f719b7759f880782309592d56db1f66f)
|
||||
|
||||
Many coins were affected 6 days ago. Screenshot by u/incandescent-leaf
|
||||
|
||||
Edit:
|
||||
|
||||
- Here's an interesting DD that could shed some light on these crypto whales: <https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nkde38/bitcoin_address_activity_appear_to_mirror_gme/>
|
||||
|
||||
- It's also interesting how Goldman Sachs now considers the leading coin as an asset class. The timing is what's most intriguing. Last weekend, crypto had another big sell off. <https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bitcoin-is-officially-a-new-asset-class-goldman-sachs-103540636.html>
|
||||
|
||||
4\. Commercial mortgage backed securities (CMBS) 🏬
|
||||
|
||||
According to Fitch Ratings, US CMBS delinquencies ticked up in April for the first time since October 2020, mostly from hotels and regional malls.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/9uq512i9sb171.png?width=991&format=png&auto=webp&s=eda234c027d79eb6d1318e5036dde2b2aa7f1538)
|
||||
|
||||
Source: <https://www.fitchratings.com/research/structured-finance/us-cmbs-delinquencies-tick-up-in-april-for-first-time-since-october-2020-07-05-2021>
|
||||
|
||||
I don't know about you, but this suuure reminds me of something... and this don't look good.
|
||||
|
||||
🚀🚀 Edit 🚀🚀
|
||||
|
||||
*Thank you to* [u/Due-Mountain-9044](https://www.reddit.com/u/Due-Mountain-9044/) *for this:*
|
||||
|
||||
In his interview and in his new article, Ryan Grim calls CMBS a BIGGER problem than the 2008 housing crisis:
|
||||
|
||||
- Article: <https://theintercept.com/2021/04/20/wall-street-cmbs-dollar-general-ladder-capital/>
|
||||
|
||||
- YouTube: <https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pRHwhvUc54A>
|
||||
|
||||
- Podcast: <https://theintercept.com/2021/04/23/deconstructed-whistleblower-financial-crisis/>
|
||||
|
||||
4.1 Mortgages 🏠
|
||||
|
||||
*Thank you to* [u/plasticbiner](https://www.reddit.com/u/plasticbiner/) *for also pointing this out:*
|
||||
|
||||
New Report From Consumer Financial Protection Bureau Finds Over 11 Million Families At Risk Of Losing Housing (March 1, 2021)
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/jvx7x1an3b171.png?width=1015&format=png&auto=webp&s=1574c782f2610c6712f6605be9bc02cade2d0bd9)
|
||||
|
||||
Source: https://www.consumerfinance.gov/about-us/newsroom/new-report-from-consumer-financial-protection-bureau-finds-over-11-million-families-at-risk-of-losing-housing/
|
||||
|
||||
🚀🚀End of edit 🚀🚀
|
||||
|
||||
5\. Banks, hedge funds, and the Fed working 24/7 🏦
|
||||
|
||||
We've seen the night pics and enjoyed them. Quite the norm nowadays, but quite unusual still.
|
||||
|
||||
<https://preview.redd.it/tw0ubnrays071.png?width=1902&format=png&auto=webp&s=f7fae2895a00a4292eb6c22b3cf92fbbb9d6cccb>
|
||||
|
||||
But wait! There's more. Not only do they have to deal with the stock market, the repo market, CMBS, paying their employees for overtime... they're also losing money with fines.
|
||||
|
||||
- UBS, Nomura fined $452 million by the EU. Bank of America, Credit Suisse Group AG and Credit Agricole were fined about 28.5 million euros last month. Source: <https://finance.yahoo.com/news/ubs-nomura-unicredit-fined-452-100701721.html>
|
||||
|
||||
- Since January 2021 up until today, the SEC has awarded ~$163.2 million to whistleblowers. Whistleblowers get 10-30% of the money collected, which means someone is bleeding from $544 million to $1.632B.
|
||||
|
||||
- And then the petty fines by the SEC that I won't list. Chump change for them.
|
||||
|
||||
There's also weird or bad news every week :
|
||||
|
||||
- The European Bank Issues Financial Stability Warning. [Reddit post on this](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nh913m/the_european_bank_issues_financial_stability/)
|
||||
|
||||
- In Mexico, [BBVA closes 867 branches and 1 million credit cards.](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nhgrt5/closing_867_bank_branches_and_a_million_credit/) In Spain, they closed 530 branches.
|
||||
|
||||
- Banks are planning on launching a pilot program where they will issue credit cards to people with no credit scores: <https://www.wsj.com/articles/jpmorgan-others-plan-to-issue-credit-cards-to-people-with-no-credit-scores-11620898206>
|
||||
|
||||
- Not to mention the margin calls already happening on [Wall Street as reported by European financial news](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nb9pon/european_financial_news_is_reporting_major_margin/)
|
||||
|
||||
- Much more... won't dig further. It's 1:30 am lol
|
||||
|
||||
🚀🚀 Edit 🚀🚀 I'm back at it 3 days later
|
||||
|
||||
Here are a few more articles to make you go "Hmmmm 🤔"
|
||||
|
||||
- Right after supposedly great earnings, Morgan Stanley sells $6 billion worth of bonds, following JP Morgan which sold $13 billion of bonds. Goldman Sachs also issued $6 billion of bonds. Source: <https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/morgan-stanley-joins-bank-bond-bonanza-with-three-part-sale-1.1592121>
|
||||
|
||||
- Over-leveraged Archegos Capital Management cost Credit Suisse $4.7+ billion in losses. Morgan Stanley dumped $5 billion in shares in Archegos' stocks before fire sale. Nomura losses could be as much as $2 billion. Source: <https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/06/morgan-stanley-dumped-5-billion-in-archegos-stocks-before-fire-sale.html> and <https://www.cnn.com/2021/03/29/investing/wall-street-hedge-fund-archegos/index.html>. Keep in mind Archegos was just a small family firm. How many more are there ?
|
||||
|
||||
- Italian bank collapses on exposure to Greensill and GFG. Source : <https://www.ft.com/content/c02a6e97-5505-4d4a-933f-a0e934ca6eda>
|
||||
|
||||
🚀🚀 End of edit 🚀🚀
|
||||
|
||||
On top of that, the CEOs of all major US banks have to testify before Congress this week on May 26th and 27th. Source : <https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-04-15/wall-street-bank-ceos-called-to-testify-before-congress-in-may>
|
||||
|
||||
How often does this happen ? Since 2008, they were called twice to testify before Congress according to above article.
|
||||
|
||||
6\. The rich divorcing and/or selling stocks 💔
|
||||
|
||||
So Bill Gates divorced and Gabe Plotkin divorced ? Huh. Weird...
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/npk8r7sisb171.png?width=1843&format=png&auto=webp&s=4d0027e7f8aff470b5261852c4c9d77eca4e3380)
|
||||
|
||||
Wow. That's a lotta shares. A week before the tech sector dumped.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/zaru329qsb171.png?width=1851&format=png&auto=webp&s=e454d39dc0c95a2b9774b013d988be25ff038d3f)
|
||||
|
||||
Mark Zuckerberg selling his FB shares. Goes all the way back to February.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/f2ouo5l4tb171.png?width=1852&format=png&auto=webp&s=ab00893677a8db4726d740bef4520169e1e5896e)
|
||||
|
||||
Google too?
|
||||
|
||||
Source: [finviz.com](https://finviz.com/)
|
||||
|
||||
Edit:
|
||||
|
||||
- Let's not forget Warren Buffett and his company Berkshire Hathaway sold most of their bank shares (Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, M&T Bank, PNC Financial, Synchrony Financial, Wells Fargo, US Bancorp, and BNY Mellon) during the past 5 quarters. Source : <https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/warren-buffett-dumped-goldman-sachs-jpmorgan-and-other-bank-stocks-last-year-they-ve-now-surged-to-record-highs-meaning-the-investor-left-billions-on-the-table/ar-AAKc7Dr>
|
||||
|
||||
7\. The domestic market and the international markets 📉
|
||||
|
||||
Let's look back at the past 2 weeks.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/duhmxe5itb171.png?width=1284&format=png&auto=webp&s=9c6bfde6a2be1b567cdb1452511b99cc9bfc9872)
|
||||
|
||||
05/19 by u/CryptoFX1
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/geupg0nmtb171.png?width=1136&format=png&auto=webp&s=8f07d1be7f95801e2515e780313342ce1d5e2d6f)
|
||||
|
||||
On May 12, Nikkei Bled. Only 1% Away From the Low of Jan 28. by u/incandescent-leaf
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/yylsva8stb171.png?width=960&format=png&auto=webp&s=d60431874a4b4df632980e526b9af812ada31d7f)
|
||||
|
||||
"Taiwan Stock Exchange Index just wiped out YTD gains. This is abnormal. Very likely that it will also affect the US markets (though many can argue that this is actually a reflection of the US markets, and I would agree)" by u/_atworkdontsendnudes
|
||||
|
||||
- [Asian markets](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nahhak/asian_markets_are_tanking_once_again_following/) and [other international markets](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nafv9y/international_markets_are_doing_super_well_honest/) are tanking, following another day of decline in the US markets (May 12-13)
|
||||
|
||||
Ok, the market has had its green days here and there. But overall, it's been pretty unusually red, right ? Yeah, also, all of this could be unrelated. Could be a coincidence. What do I know ? You be the judge.
|
||||
|
||||
8\. The media 📰
|
||||
|
||||
Usually very biased or bought out, but there are some exceptions like this article: [Are we on the verge of a new financial crisis?](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/ncgojw/are_we_on_the_verge_of_a_new_financial_crisis_the/) The GameStop case, the signals of Hedge Funds and the rise of crypto.
|
||||
|
||||
What's concerning is that even "biased media" is warning of inflation, hyperinflation and an impending crash. No links, just go on YouTube. If they're talking about it, we know shit's about to hit the fan soon...
|
||||
|
||||
Edit:
|
||||
|
||||
- Ever doubted media manipulation ? Remember this video ["Independent" media using the EXACT same words](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nbpusp/if_you_ever_doubted_media_manipulation_remember/) and this video of the 2008 crash: [Not a single expert/spokesperson mentioned the true cause of the crash; Mortgage Bonds.](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nbrl8h/watch_this_video_of_cnbc_during_the_2008_crash/)
|
||||
|
||||
- Remember "Bear Stearns is fine" back in 2008 ? Cramer says he's confident inflation will not end up crushing US economy. Source : <https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/cramer-says-hes-confident-inflation-will-not-end-up-crushing-us-economy/ar-AAKl951>
|
||||
|
||||
- Motley Fool agrees, as per their "38 reasons you don't have to fear a stock market crash" article: <https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/05/23/38-reason-you-dont-have-to-fear-stock-market-crash/>
|
||||
|
||||
9\. GameStop 🎮
|
||||
|
||||
I think you know what I'm thinking of. Let me just repeat this. We have played the game while following the rules. We played against players that had cheat codes in an unfair game, designed for us to lose. Yet, here we are.
|
||||
|
||||
Buy, hodl, and vote fellow 🐈 & 🦍& 🐜. I appreciate you all. The rest can fuck right off.
|
||||
|
||||
🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀
|
||||
|
||||
```
|
||||
Edit: alright, who the f reported me ? Seems like the shills don't like this. To everyone else, I am perfectly happy with my life 😉🤑
|
||||
|
||||
Edit 2: I guess I was too subtle. I was reported for self-harm and potential suicide. Let me make it clear, I have absolutely zero thoughts about this. I love my life, even if it's a mess.
|
||||
|
||||
Also, thank you all for the awards and kind feedback! Was not expecting to gain so much traction. "Controversial" title is a reference to the movie The Big Short. Some of you (superstonkers) caught on.
|
||||
|
||||
Lots of great input and good discussion in the comments.
|
||||
|
||||
A few people questioning my sources and my background. Listen... forget it.
|
||||
|
||||
```
|
||||
|
||||
🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀
|
||||
|
||||
10\. The flurry of new rules and regulations 📝
|
||||
|
||||
- Let's not forget Gary Gensler, Chairman of the SEC, was sworn in on a Saturday (April 17, 2021). [Why the Weekend Swear in Ceremony for Gary Gensler is of Significance](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/mtikm9/why_the_weekend_swear_in_ceremony_for_gary/)
|
||||
|
||||
- Also interesting how the DTCC, OCC, ICC, and NSCC have been implementing new rules and regulations like crazy in such a short time-span. Below is an overview of them (credits to [u/MATTATI2005](https://www.reddit.com/u/MATTATI2005/)). And here's [another great DD](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/ngru15/the_flurry_of_rules_before_the_storm_dtc_icc_occ/) tying them in with the FTD cycles of GME.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/hdabo7p6vc171.png?width=975&format=png&auto=webp&s=d089ca7c3e1d9cf27bfdb9ed0762f9b036c4b643)
|
||||
|
||||
- Michael J. Burry, famous for seeing the early signs of the 2008 crash and making bank, also got shushed a few months ago, deleting his Twitter account. In his profile, he linked this, only to remove it 1 day later: <https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/notes/feds-notes/ins-and-outs-of-collateral-re-use-20181221.htm>. Here's a great DD explaining how Michael Burry Handed us the Missing Piece on a Silver Plate, [How Financial Institutions Using US Treasury Securities Nearly Caused the Market to Collapse and What Does it Mean for Us](https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/comments/mil875/michael_burry_handed_us_the_missing_piece_on_a/)
|
||||
|
||||
11\. Margin debt 💵
|
||||
|
||||
FINRA Margin Debt is at a current level of 822.55B, up from 813.68B last month and up from 479.29B one year ago. This is a change of 1.09% from last month and 71.62% from one year ago. Source: <https://ycharts.com/indicators/finra_margin_debt>. Thank you to [u/CapoeiraCharles](https://www.reddit.com/u/CapoeiraCharles/) who reminded me of this.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/szaksdemvb171.png?width=1154&format=png&auto=webp&s=b8b26435ab2e534370f322600c2a7ffa1098ce13)
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/9ot4jz0nqb171.png?width=910&format=png&auto=webp&s=1fe3c5cad336c78e6aa3846438430e3f4d94a8ff)
|
||||
|
||||
12\. More charts 📉
|
||||
|
||||
I'm just going to leave this here. You be the judge of what this all means. Credits to [u/peruvian_bull](https://www.reddit.com/u/peruvian_bull/).
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/b5k88sr7pb171.png?width=640&format=png&auto=webp&s=76a3b153b728898635c81fa78de60d775554210b)
|
||||
|
||||
13\. Final words 💎
|
||||
|
||||
My goal is not to incite panic but to share data and encourage discussion. Without knowledge, where would we even begin, let alone be prepared ? Imo, this is what makes [r/superstonk](https://www.reddit.com/r/superstonk/) great. It's like a hive mind of 300k+ people sharing info.
|
||||
|
||||
To those who are panicking, I believe US banks insure up to $250k for each account. The comment section below is quite informative as well.
|
||||
|
||||
Are all the points in my post correlated ? Maybe, maybe not. Saying they are would be speculation. However, each point was based on facts and I think that's what matters. The rest is up for you to decide.
|
||||
|
||||
This is not financial advice. If I missed anything, please let me know.
|
||||
|
||||
🚀🚀🚀
|
@ -0,0 +1,300 @@
|
||||
The Fed is pinned into a corner from the 2008 can-kick utilizing QE, and the economic effects of COVID. They are stuck battling a collateral crisis AND a liquidity crisis. The Fed is currently fudging the numbers of treasuries to hide a collateral shortage and to try to prop the economy up.
|
||||
===================================================================================================================================================================================================================================================================================================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/Criand](https://www.reddit.com/user/Criand/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/o4rfnu/the_fed_is_pinned_into_a_corner_from_the_2008/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
[DD 👨🔬](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22DD%20%F0%9F%91%A8%E2%80%8D%F0%9F%94%AC%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||
0\. Preface
|
||||
|
||||
I am not a financial advisor. I do not provide financial advice. Many thoughts here are my opinion, and others can be speculative.
|
||||
|
||||
I'm personally happy to see that there is a shift from GME DD to macro-economics DD. Because it provides a much wider insight into how the market is behaving, and how GME would NOT be the cause of a market crash. Everything has been a pressure cooker over the past decade, ready to burst, and the new DD provides insight on when things might go down.
|
||||
|
||||
The new DD also diverges from the expectations of things to shoot up in price every week, where everyone is watching T+21/T+35/Net Capital cycles. It gives a general "MOASS will most likely occur when everything falls due to liquidation of defaulting Banks / Hedge Funds / Financial Institutions".
|
||||
|
||||
It gives me peace of mind, because I do not watch for specific dates around GME to cause the surge. I watch the economy at the macro scale to understand when things could blow.
|
||||
|
||||
And to any skeptics - yes, it is possible that GME could never blow up. Do I think it will blow up? Sure I do. But I encourage YOU to read this post, disregarding GME, and to instead understand what is going on with the economy on the macro scale.
|
||||
|
||||
Even if the GME play is wrong in your eyes, it is good to understand how the economy could crash harder than it did in 2008. I don't care if you don't believe in GME. I care about you, and don't want YOU to be hurt.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/pscahu4lxk671.png?width=727&format=png&auto=webp&s=2e5ee31eaef0413023a8cc4be07087210081554c)
|
||||
|
||||
Me IRL - Maybe - Sometime
|
||||
|
||||
1\. Before We Begin: An Overview of Repo And Reverse Repo
|
||||
|
||||
Repo and Reverse Repo might be a bit confusing. You probably saw on this subreddit or in news that the reverse repo market has been blowing up, and it's a bit concerning.
|
||||
|
||||
It's not too complicated if you just imagine it between two entities: the Federal Reserve and Banks.
|
||||
|
||||
For both Repo and Reverse Repo, it is an agreement between two parties for one of them to sell some security for a price, and they agree to buy that security back at a later date at a higher price based on some interest rate (usually). This is called a "Repurchase Agreement", where "Repo" is a standard "Repurchase Agreement" and the "Reverse Repo" is a "Reverse Repurchase Agreement", the inverse of a "Repo".
|
||||
|
||||
The length of these Repurchase Agreements can be various lengths. Such as overnight, one month, three month, etc.. But what we're seeing is short-term overnight Reverse Repos. The parties swap, and then the next trading day they swap back. It is not a permanent extraction of the underlying security. It is an overnight swap. A permanent extraction comes from Quantitative Easing or Quantitative Tightening, both of which I will discuss later.
|
||||
|
||||
- Repo (Repurchase Agreement) - This is where the bank swaps collateral (such as US Treasuries) for cash. This is used when the banks have too much collateral and not enough cash, or when the banks want to generate profit off of giving loans to other parties in the repo market.
|
||||
|
||||
- Reverse Repo (Reverse Repurchase Agreement) - This is where the bank swaps cash (liquidity) for collateral (such as US Treasuries). This is used when the banks have too much cash (liquidity) and not enough collateral. The main reason behind this behavior is to pump balance sheets for the night.
|
||||
|
||||
Below is a diagram I made which might make this more clear. It is between the Fed (left) and Banks (right):
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/ukum83cf2k671.png?width=1920&format=png&auto=webp&s=99d4c612df82013aed06ff2b22621500a80071cf)
|
||||
|
||||
Repo and QT Versus Reverse Repo and QE
|
||||
|
||||
2\. Quantitative Easing Can-Kick of 2008, Slowly Draining Collateral From The Market
|
||||
|
||||
Note: If you want an overview of what led to the 2008 crash, check out [my previous post](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/o0scoy/the_bigger_short_how_2008_is_repeating_at_a_much/) which has a summary of the documentary "Inside Job (2010)". It also describes where we're probably headed based on SLR, the DTC, ICC, OCC, NSCC rules, and mortgage default protections expiring June 30th, 2021.
|
||||
|
||||
Zoom back in time to 2008. The economy took a massive dump due to Wall Street's abuse of derivatives and leverage. They created a bunch of toxic CDOs mostly consisting of [subprime Mortgages](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/subprimeloan.asp) to create an economic apocalyptic scenario around Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS). Everything was overleveraged and was a massive balloon of bets based on the performance of the MBS's.
|
||||
|
||||
Currently, there's evidence of Wall Street doing the same abuse of toxic CDO's but this time with Commercial Mortgage-Backed Securities (CMBS). [See above linked post for this detail]
|
||||
|
||||
The economy was hurting pretty bad from the 2008 crash, and it was going to continue going into a complete death spiral until the Federal Reserve (Fed) introduced Quantitative Easing (QE):
|
||||
|
||||
> The Fed announced QE1 on November 25, 2008. Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke announced an aggressive attack on the financial crisis of 2008. The Fed began buying $500 billion in mortgage-backed securities and $100 billion in other debt. QE supported the housing market that the subprime mortgage crisis had devastated. - [Source](https://www.thebalance.com/what-is-qe1-3305530)
|
||||
|
||||
If you're still scratching your head on what QE is, here's the Wikipedia overview definition, as well as (hopefully) a more simplified definition.
|
||||
|
||||
[Quantitative Easing](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quantitative_easing) (QE) - is a monetary policy whereby a central bank purchases at scale government bonds or other financial assets in order to inject money into the economy to expand economic activity.
|
||||
|
||||
- This is what the Fed will do to extract collateral (including US Treasuries) from the economy in order to push in liquidity. The Fed started doing this in 2008 to extract toxic collateral from the market and encourage economic growth because it allowed more cash flow in the economy.
|
||||
|
||||
- This pulls out collateral from the economy, and pushes cash (liquidity) in.
|
||||
|
||||
- It was a ticking timebomb ever since it started, because it extracts collateral from the market, slowly creating a collateral shortage issue.
|
||||
|
||||
Check out the effects of QE on the Dow Jones Industrial Average ($DJI):
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/cktjwttu8k671.png?width=1528&format=png&auto=webp&s=4e23f2e54e6204d8c56323d7e6bc8772c1a02535)
|
||||
|
||||
DJI Before And After Quantitative Easing Begins
|
||||
|
||||
It was helping the economy reverse the death spiral, and it has been pumping the economy ever since the introduction of QE. The problem is, of course, that collateral would continue to be sucked out of the market through the mechanics of QE.
|
||||
|
||||
And QE can't continue forever, because collateral is a fundamental part of the repo market which allows cash to flow in the economy. When you don't have collateral, you can't post the collateral in the market for cash from banks, and thus the flow of cash basically shuts down. You cannot perform a normal repo transaction between a Bank / Hedge Fund / Financial Institution.
|
||||
|
||||
The Fed tried to stop QE after a while. Instead of pulling collateral out of the economy, they needed to try to push collateral back into the economy. In order to stop QE, they tried what was, in essence, the "reverse" of QE called Quantitative Tightening (QT).
|
||||
|
||||
[Quantitative Tightening](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quantitative_tightening) (QT) - (or quantitative hardening) is a contractionary monetary policy applied by a central bank to decrease the amount of liquidity within the economy. The policy is the reverse of quantitative easing (QE), aimed to increase money supply in order to "stimulate" the economy.
|
||||
|
||||
- This is what the Fed will do to extract liquidity from the economy in order to push in collateral. It is used to attempt to reverse the effects of QE, to try to regain balance in the economy.
|
||||
|
||||
- This pulls out cash (liquidity) from the economy, and pushes collateral in.
|
||||
|
||||
- The Fed attempted QT in 2018, but it proved to have very bad consequences on the economy. So, they went back to QE in 2019, continuing to can-kick the effects of the 2008 crash.
|
||||
|
||||
This is a chart showing the Fed's "Total Assets", where collateral is an asset for the Fed. So when collateral was extracted from the economy through QE, it went onto their "Assets" side of their balance sheet. When collateral was pushed back into the economy through QT, it was extracted from their "Assets" side of their balance sheet.
|
||||
|
||||
1. At the start of QE in 2008, there is a surge of assets due to the buying up of MBS's and treasuries.
|
||||
|
||||
2. Around 2018 the assets began to decline because the Fed attempted QT by pushing collateral back into the economy and sucking liquidity out.
|
||||
|
||||
3. Around September 2019 the assets began to increase again because the Fed went back to QE after realizing the negative effects it was having on the economy due to causing a liquidity shortage.
|
||||
|
||||
So... what happened in September of 2019? Why did QT fail after a decade of QE?
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/x6pfomz2ck671.png?width=893&format=png&auto=webp&s=1c667c5cc3dbc94de50944208f107aac1dd72d73)
|
||||
|
||||
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/bst_recenttrends.htm
|
||||
|
||||
3\. Quantitative Easing Cannot Be Reversed. The Can-Kick Continues Until The Economy Crashes
|
||||
|
||||
Despite pumping in a bunch of liquidity into the market through QE, the economy was still lacking liquidity. When the Fed started to reverse QE through QT, the liquidity in the market tightened and thus the negative effects on the economy began to surface in September of 2019.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/9sd32gdxdk671.png?width=630&format=png&auto=webp&s=0ee9d749419bc2b6c0a84682f6f9b0b886ceca93)
|
||||
|
||||
https://blog.pimco.com/en/2019/09/repo-rate-spike-a-tail-of-low-liquidity
|
||||
|
||||
Less than a year after starting QT, a liquidity crisis emerged on September 15th, 2019, when the repo rate spiked up severely. This was a clash of events surrounding the lower liquidity issue.
|
||||
|
||||
> Banks' "reporting" dates are known inflection points in the short-term funding markets and typically fall at the end of the month, quarter, and of course the year. But periodically, the 15th of the month is also a pressure point. Such was the case this past Monday when a short-term funding rate that had been hovering around 2.21% soared as high as 10%.
|
||||
>
|
||||
> The funding market succumbed to a trifecta of pressures:
|
||||
>
|
||||
> 1. Payments on corporate taxes were due on 15 September, leading to high redemptions of more than $35 billion in money market funds.
|
||||
>
|
||||
>
|
||||
> 2. Cash balances increased by an additional $83 billion in the U.S. Treasury general account, which reduces excess reserves and simultaneously acts to reduce the aggregate supply of overnight liquidity available in funding markets.
|
||||
>
|
||||
>
|
||||
> 3. Dealers needed an additional $20 billion in funding to finance the settlement of recent scheduled U.S. Treasury issuance.
|
||||
>
|
||||
>
|
||||
>
|
||||
> ...
|
||||
>
|
||||
> ...
|
||||
>
|
||||
> On September 15, as so many institutions needed funding, repo rates climbed well above the fed funds upper-end target at the time of 2.25% to briefly touch 5%. The following day, cash repo markets traded as high as 10% for those looking to finance agency mortgage positions overnight. Later that morning, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York acknowledged the pressures and conducted its first Open Market Operation (OMO) in more than a decade to add reserves to the funding markets that were clearly in need of the liquidity. Subsequently, after its meeting Wednesday, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) announced a cut in the interest on excess reserves (IOER) of 0.30% -- five basis points more than its cut in the fed funds rate -- providing some relief to the upper bound of money-market yields. - [Source](https://blog.pimco.com/en/2019/09/repo-rate-spike-a-tail-of-low-liquidity)
|
||||
|
||||
Due to the reduced liquidity from QT, because it sucks out liquidity and pushes in collateral, the markets hit a critical point where there was too much cash that was needed and not enough to supply those who needed the cash. There was huge amounts of strain on the economy.
|
||||
|
||||
This was most likely due to continued large leverage + derivatives abuse stemming from what led to the 2000-2007 Housing Market Bubble. The Fed realized that QT could not continue because of the liquidity shortage that was arising. They had to stop QT and continue QE in order to continue to pull out collateral and pump in liquidity. And thus, the collateral shortage time bomb continued ticking.
|
||||
|
||||
Below is the figure of when the repo rate shot up to ~10% within a day. This was awful, because it was much more expensive for loans to go out. The repo market would have shut down from nobody wanting to spend 10% on a repurchase agreement to get cash for the day. How would ANYONE get 10% return overnight to pay for these loans? The flow of cash was about to halt.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/86p3getwwj671.png?width=771&format=png&auto=webp&s=2a503c9055d655f80557da8bf46744c205f60011)
|
||||
|
||||
https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/notes/feds-notes/what-happened-in-money-markets-in-september-2019-20200227.htm
|
||||
|
||||
4\. COVID Initiated A Liquidity Crisis In The Banks, Which Now Fights With The Collateral Shortage
|
||||
|
||||
QE continued on until 2020, when suddenly, COVID came in. Nobody expected it.
|
||||
|
||||
And boy, oh boy, did COVID wreak havoc on the economy and the financial world. While the Fed was slowly approaching a collateral crisis through QE, COVID exacerbated the issue due to the sudden impact it had on liquidity. COVID increased liquidity, and when you have a sudden surge of liquidity, you need to balance it with collateral. The economic balance was tipping as of March of 2020.
|
||||
|
||||
This does not even take into account the effects of many people losing their jobs, being unable to pay rent/mortgages, and other issues that arose from COVID. Those all apply to another ticking time bomb: the CMBS issue, equivalent to the MBS bubble of 2000-2007, which I discussed in my other post.
|
||||
|
||||
The COVID pandemic caused a surge of money being printed from stimulus packages in the US. When you print a bunch of money into the economy on a whim, you risk driving inflation of the currency itself. What does inflation encourage? Less spending from companies, due to the higher price. This leads to less loaning of cash in the repo market, and banks obtaining an ever-surplus of cash.
|
||||
|
||||
COVID caused a sudden surge of trillions of dollars worth that the economy couldn't handle naturally. Compare the treasury balance versus the deposits over time, and the surge that occurred in 2020 in response to the pandemic. The COVID stimulus bills pumped in a massive amount of money into the economy at the risk of inflation. And we're already seeing the effects of inflation occur on the [supply chain](https://www.businessinsider.com/why-supply-shortages-economy-inventory-chips-lumber-cars-toilet-paper-2021-5):
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/amwahlvykk671.png?width=877&format=png&auto=webp&s=1e343c265451a1b2d6754a4d04971bb445e58f43)
|
||||
|
||||
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/bst_recenttrends.htm
|
||||
|
||||
Stimulus checks were sent out to retail. Companies were bailed out. Unemployment increased, resulting in more unemployment benefits going out due to the relief bills. More money printed. More money deposited at banks.
|
||||
|
||||
There was a ton of cash (liquidity) being pumped into the economy over the past year from March 2020 to June 2021. Because of this, due to inflation and an excess of cash, banks began to get a surplus of cash deposited. People had more cash. They didn't need to spend money on rent/mortages. Companies didn't want to spend more due to fears of inflation. So, bank deposits went up.
|
||||
|
||||
The main problem with this is that the cash deposited with the banks became a liability on their balance sheets. When you have a surplus of liabilities on your balance sheet, you need to 'balance' it out with assets, such as US Treasuries.
|
||||
|
||||
The banks were now in trouble because they had way, way too many deposits. They were at risk of defaulting due to their SLR requirements. Here is a figure showing how deposits (liabilities) of banks increased over time. It mushroomed during the COVID pandemic:
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/6dm07sa3oj671.png?width=891&format=png&auto=webp&s=9acce6ceb03841c64828198eefff21eb06b1e310)
|
||||
|
||||
https://www.ft.com/content/a5e165f7-a524-4b5b-9939-de689b6a1687
|
||||
|
||||
To combat this issue, the Fed decided to introduce a relief program for banks regarding SLR because of the massive increase of liquidity due to the uppercut that COVID created on the financial world.
|
||||
|
||||
> The supplementary leverage ratio (SLR) is the US implementation of the Basel III Tier 1 leverage ratio, with which banks calculate the amount of common equity capital they must hold relative to their total leverage exposure. Large US banks must hold 3%. Top-tier bank holding companies must also hold an extra 2% buffer, for a total of 5%. The SLR, which does not distinguish between assets based on risk, is conceived as a backstop to risk-weighted capital requirements. - [Source](https://www.risk.net/definition/supplementary-leverage-ratio-slr)
|
||||
|
||||
In more of a simplified summary, SLR is a requirement of total equity that a bank must hold compared to their total leverage exposure. If they are exposed to leverage, they need to hold enough capital for that position otherwise they are at risk of defaulting. In this case, they only need to hold a measly 3%-5%, dependent on how large of a bank they are. Just like in 2008 - these banks can have massive leverage and SLR is to "help protect the economy" from them abusing leverage.
|
||||
|
||||
But hey, the Fed put in place some protections for the year to help these banks since they were obviously overleveraged to begin with. These protections expired on March 31st, 2021.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/14pa4yngtj671.png?width=1433&format=png&auto=webp&s=534726bcf83b0bf40ede7b196191d66c29094d6e)
|
||||
|
||||
https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/03/29/the-fed-is-ending-one-of-its-pandemic-relief-progr/
|
||||
|
||||
> The Fed's relief program last year allowed banks to exclude U.S. Treasuries and central bank reserves from the SLR calculation. The relief program was a response to the many non-banking institutions selling Treasuries to raise cash, and coincided with other measures, including the $2.2 trillion CARES Act, which resulted in even more Treasuries being sold into the market. - [Source](https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/03/29/the-fed-is-ending-one-of-its-pandemic-relief-progr/)
|
||||
|
||||
Right after the expiration of the protection plans of SLR, the Reverse Repo market began to blow up because the banks had way too much liquidity and not enough treasuries on their balance sheets.
|
||||
|
||||
The argument that the banks were "parking their money at the Fed" was a reasonable explanation at first. Though, with 0% ROI from the RRP at the time, the banks would literally get no return on their investments. So for that argument, all of their other investments would have had to yield negative in order for RRP to be more enticing. Does this make sense to you that they'd use 0% RRP to be an 'investment'?
|
||||
|
||||
The fact that the RRP began to ramp up and then explode after the SLR protections lifted makes this look like a collateral shortage issue. And of course, with QE occurring over the past decade, makes it more likely, because collateral was sucked out of the economy and onto the Fed's balance sheet over the years.
|
||||
|
||||
That was of course questionable on whether it was a liquidity or collateral issue, until, the RRP rate dropped negative in March of 2021, as well as in April of 2021.
|
||||
|
||||
5\. Reverse Repo Rate Flips Negative; Warnings Of Collateral Shortage
|
||||
|
||||
Think about it quite simply in a supply/demand factor and the reverse repo when the RRP rate dropped negative.
|
||||
|
||||
You are a bank. You want to get Collateral from the Fed to balance your sheets. The Fed says they'll give you a small amount of interest for borrowing their collateral overnight. But now, imagine that the supply of collateral is too low and demand is too high. The Fed will no longer want to pay you for borrowing its collateral so it will shift the interest rate down. If demand really outweighs supply, then the Fed would then want cash from YOU in order for YOU to borrow the collateral.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/eysh9mx9ok671.png?width=961&format=png&auto=webp&s=4d9d1695922b01651eae06c6bcc2753ad0f5b789)
|
||||
|
||||
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-bonds-repo-explainer/explainer-u-s-repo-market-flirts-with-negative-rates-as-fed-seeks-to-absorb-excess-cash-idUSKBN2C32AI
|
||||
|
||||
This was just one of the warning signs that a collateral issue was arising. The RRP rates were already at 0%, so the only way for them to move was either up or down. An increase in treasury demand could shift it down, into the negatives, which it did.
|
||||
|
||||
6\. The Fed Is Fudging The Numbers And Hiding A Collateral Shortage
|
||||
|
||||
The drop in RRP interest rates to the negative came after the Fed increased the total borrowing amount of counterparties in the RRP from $30 Billion to $80 Billion.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/by2ftlpopk671.png?width=1028&format=png&auto=webp&s=747f50e2fb63aabaedb6e9e947aa117f6c75f91b)
|
||||
|
||||
https://finadium.com/fed-increases-rrp-limits-from-30-billion-to-80-billion-to-ensure-supply-at-near-0-rates/
|
||||
|
||||
Why did they do this? Think of it again as a supply versus demand issue. For simple math, imagine the Fed has 50 members.
|
||||
|
||||
- At a limit of $30 Billion per member, that is a total of $30B * 50 = $1.5 Trillion that can be borrowed.
|
||||
|
||||
- At a limit of $80 Billion per member, that is a total of $80B * 50 = $4 Trillion that can be borrowed.
|
||||
|
||||
What is this doing? Why did the Fed increase the limit?
|
||||
|
||||
It's artificially inflating the total "supply" of treasuries that can be borrowed by counterparties in the RRP. It is attempting to keep the interest rate positive because there is so much demand for collateral and not enough supply in the markets and on the Fed's balance sheet. The RRP was already at 0%, there was nowhere for it to go besides negative, which as you know implies a shortage of collateral and a red flag for the financial world.
|
||||
|
||||
Not only did they artificially inflate the total supply to combat the demand by increasing the total borrow amount, the Fed decided to not affect the assets side of its balance sheet during these RRP transactions. This effectively leaves the supply of treasuries on the Fed's balance sheet the same. This is another method to can-kick to avoid interest rates going negative and flashing a collateral issue.
|
||||
|
||||
> When the Desk conducts RRP open market operations, it sells securities held in the System Open Market Account (SOMA) to eligible RRP counterparties, with an agreement to buy the assets back on the RRP's specified maturity date. This leaves the SOMA portfolio the same size, as securities sold temporarily under repurchase agreements continue to be shown as assets held by the SOMA in accordance with generally accepted accounting principles, but the transaction shifts some of the liabilities on the Federal Reserve's balance sheet from deposits held by depository institutions (also known as bank reserves) to reverse repos while the trade is outstanding. - [Source](https://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/rrp_faq/rrp-faq-archive/rrp-faq-200715)
|
||||
|
||||
We can see this visually from the Fed's balance sheet that they're not affecting their assets during the RRP. They're allowing counterparties to borrow treasuries WITHOUT affecting the supply - desperately trying to get away from the rising demand for treasuries and avoid treasury yields from snapping down (and likewise the price of treasuries up):
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/evxua80crk671.png?width=893&format=png&auto=webp&s=6a925b05e7a460b252457923ca97c730c511da6b)
|
||||
|
||||
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/bst_recenttrends.htm
|
||||
|
||||
On top of this, the Fed showed their hand ONCE AGAIN of fudging the numbers on June 16th when they bumped up the RRP rate to 0.05%. The short-term treasury yields briefly went BELOW the RRP interest amount of 0.05% on June 17th when the new RRP ROI was in effect.
|
||||
|
||||
This is a BAD sign because now overnight RRP had a higher return than 2-month and 3-month treasury bonds.
|
||||
|
||||
The Fed is fudging the numbers trying to hide the treasury bond shortage.
|
||||
|
||||
The Fed cannot keep this up. They're trying to keep the T-bill yield curve propped up despite the treasury shortage. They're not affecting their balance sheet, and they also artificially increased the amount of treasuries in their "supply" by increasing the counterparty borrow limit from $30 Billion to $80 Billion.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/sp52qka5tj671.png?width=858&format=png&auto=webp&s=69d7ec8971035a7939f7bed116f7c923215019d6)
|
||||
|
||||
https://alhambrapartners.com/2021/06/17/the-fomc-accidentally-exposes-itself-reverse-repo-style/
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/1f64o77tsk671.png?width=972&format=png&auto=webp&s=48e83c02895066c4e300c5a8adf3d3a065a6b016)
|
||||
|
||||
https://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=yield
|
||||
|
||||
The Fed is also planning on increasing interest rates. This starts to scare the economy, which is most likely why we're now seeing the dump of the stock market over the past few days and the dump leading into the week of June 21st. This is bad for the markets because it means it's going to cost more for the economy to function (e.g. what happened in 2019 when Repo Rates spiked to 10%). Companies have to spend more to hire, produce, etc. It costs the economy more to function.
|
||||
|
||||
The Fed is pinned between a collateral issue from QE sucking out collateral, and a liquidity issue and COVID pumping in too much liquidity for the banks to handle.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/uhhhzguotk671.png?width=1202&format=png&auto=webp&s=cab32cef615311320c6cf27461fa7fb18b0fc7af)
|
||||
|
||||
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/16/fed-holds-rates-steady-but-raises-inflation-expectations-sharply-and-makes-no-mention-of-taper.html
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/p0v9ij2b0k671.png?width=1013&format=png&auto=webp&s=bf8f525bfc55e8f1287e921bbaaa408c5c27a253)
|
||||
|
||||
https://www.bbc.com/news/business-57090421
|
||||
|
||||
7\. Quarter Ends Explode The Reverse Repo. The Next Quarter End Is June 30th, 2021.
|
||||
|
||||
This is not a date to look forward to for GME potentially rising. This is a date of "Holy shit. The RRP could explode to the point where treasury supply vs demand is unable to take it any more".
|
||||
|
||||
About 3-4 days prior to quarter ends, the RRP explodes up in the amount of collateral that is borrowed from the Fed. This is because of the underlying plumbing of the financial markets, identified in Section 3 above, causes additional strain on the financial markets. The banks need more collateral to prop up their balance sheets for the night of the quarter-ends.
|
||||
|
||||
The RRP borrowed amount can shoot up almost 2-4x the current levels. The amount of RRP at the moment is $747 Billion. The RRP could explode 2-4x the amount it is at upon June 25th, 2021. What if it's $1 Trillion by then due to the massive amount of collateral needed by the banks? More?
|
||||
|
||||
Can the Fed handle it?
|
||||
|
||||
Can they still prop the yield curve up?
|
||||
|
||||
Will the short-term treasuries dip below the RRP amount once more due to this shortage and flash red flags to the world of financial instability in the US?
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/63daa1s8gk671.png?width=1277&format=png&auto=webp&s=d04d4a6b577152d26d6f7ea6e0c31f05f7ce80dc)
|
||||
|
||||
https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nylihz/previous_rrp_behavior_on_quarter_ends_massive/
|
||||
|
||||
If the US Treasury yield curve snaps down from this instability and the Fed no longer able to prop up the yield curve, then it can drive treasury prices up.
|
||||
|
||||
If [/u/atobitt](https://www.reddit.com/u/atobitt/)'s "[Everything Short](https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/comments/mgucv2/the_everything_short/)" is true and they're actually shorting treasuries, then that can lead to banks defaulting due to the price of treasuries shooting up. When they default, they'll be forced to buy up all the treasuries that they've shorted into the market.
|
||||
|
||||
And it is very possible that they are shorting treasuries.
|
||||
|
||||
When performing RRP of 0%, the repo market was most likely shut down due to nobody needing cash loaned out. The banks only profitable move was to perform the RRP with the Fed and then short treasuries into the market, rehypothecating the treasuries to other parties. This would have also helped prop up the market by artificially increasing the supply of treasuries (collateral) in the market.
|
||||
|
||||
If it's true, and they have truly been performing the "Everything Short", then it could initiate a Global Financial Crisis equivalent to The Great Depression.
|
||||
|
||||
Do I want that to happen? No. But is there a chance? Yes, there is.
|
||||
|
||||
Is GME going to squeeze? Is the DD just false hopium? I don't think it's just hopium. I believe in the DD.
|
||||
|
||||
But some users might think otherwise and not believe in GME or the DD. Hello users outside of [r/superstonk](https://www.reddit.com/r/superstonk/)! If you're reading this, check out the DD on the subreddit!
|
||||
|
||||
Even if there's a slight chance of a GME squeeze in your eyes, and all of these signs are pointing to a market crash...
|
||||
|
||||
[Why not give it a shot](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l4nSHsbFe-o)?
|
421
01-Must-Read/2021-06-23-Updated-Go-No-Go-Launch-Checklist.md
Normal file
421
01-Must-Read/2021-06-23-Updated-Go-No-Go-Launch-Checklist.md
Normal file
@ -0,0 +1,421 @@
|
||||
UPDATE -- Go / No-Go For Launch - The checklist keeping GME on the launchpad.
|
||||
=============================================================================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/nothingbuttherainsir](https://www.reddit.com/user/nothingbuttherainsir/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nhh0f1/update_go_nogo_for_launch_the_checklist_keeping/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
[Possible DD 👨🔬](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22Possible%20DD%20%F0%9F%91%A8%E2%80%8D%F0%9F%94%AC%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||
*TL;DR:*\
|
||||
DTCC / OCC / ICC etc. & Wall St want key things in place before GME unwinds, and we're now looking at a list that's been mostly checked off. This rocket is just about cleared for launch.
|
||||
|
||||
*Last updated: 2021-06-23* | [Original post from 2021-04-22](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/mvq6rs/go_nogo_for_launch_the_dtcc_checklist_keeping_gme/)
|
||||
|
||||
Go / No-Go For Launch
|
||||
|
||||
Opinion - Status: Hold ❌\
|
||||
*We're on a scheduled hold. Preliminary system checks are good enough to launch, and now we are being held for atmospheric conditions to be just right.*
|
||||
|
||||
*GME ignition needs to appear from the outside to be organic, or it will be fairly obvious to the public that The System is built on lies, and run by liars, completely unfair, and this stock was just being flat out controlled for months. Even if Wall St survives financially by implementing all these rules, if they lose the public trust then it is literally "game stopped." They need plausible cover to launch now, the rest is in place.*
|
||||
|
||||
1 - Rules of Engagement ✅
|
||||
|
||||
2 - Funding ✅
|
||||
|
||||
3 - Cover Story for Timing ❌
|
||||
|
||||
4 - Avoiding Perception of Responsibility ✅
|
||||
|
||||
--- *End TL;DR* ---
|
||||
|
||||
Busy few weeks, eh Apes? Figured I'd give this a brush up and post it again since it was a month ago I posted the original. So here's the refreshed, reviewed, reassessed, reformatted, and return of the Go / No-Go Checklist. Freshness stamp at the top, changes by date at the bottom. Please comment with any additions and corrections as always.
|
||||
|
||||
Official notice that this is not financial advice, etc etc. I have no idea if any of this is indeed why these things are happening, or if they are even what I think they are. I bought a handful of shares before DFV's Congressional hearing because something seemed fucky, and that was my first stock purchase EVER. If you make financial decisions off of this speculation, you probably do eat crayons like me. I am literally just some Ape on the internet mashing buttons and you're gonna have to explain to your wife's boyfriend why you took this as advice and then spent your whole allowance already this week.
|
||||
|
||||
So this [post](https://reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/mu9xed/why_were_still_trading_sideways_and_why_we_havent/) from [u/c-digs](https://www.reddit.com/u/c-digs/) is about as close as anyone has come to my personal theory that there is a literal checklist somewhere that is getting marked off before this is allowed to unravel. The DTCC and Wall St (and probably the SEC) definitely do not want this spring to unwind before they are ready, and certainly not in a way in which they don't feel they are in control. These players are Big Corporate dicks with Big Corporate mindsets, and its my bet that they don't do anything without a plan that at least addresses all eventualities.
|
||||
|
||||
However, as it is now probably alarmingly clear to them this isn't just gonna go away on its own (cue Apes waving from the windows of the rocket sitting on the launchpad), the DTCC and pals are now scrambling to get the last things in place before somebody trips over the cord to the shredder at 3am and lands on the launch button.
|
||||
|
||||
I think the list goes something like this, but am intending this to be a crowdsourced document because there is no way I can keep this all straight on my own, and the GME Investor community has done so so much great DD already. There is definitely more to add in terms of DTCC / OCC / NSCC / SEC rules, and please comment with additional items & sources and I'll try to keep up with editing them into the list. Compiling it here can possibly help determine just how close GME probably is to liftoff. It feels like we aren't that far from it now.
|
||||
|
||||
1 - Rules of Engagement
|
||||
|
||||
Opinon - Status: Go for Launch ✅\
|
||||
*The System would benefit most if new rules about payments in a member default situation are in effect prior to launch, and as far as we know at this point, all rules to cover that scenario that were filed are now in place. They can use remaining days to shore up a few more monetary rules, but there aren't any disaster-level rules still pending out there. My opinion is at 100% Go for rules being in place.*
|
||||
|
||||
Let's cover some basics before getting into each specific rule.
|
||||
|
||||
Whose rules cover what:
|
||||
|
||||
DTCC stands for Depoisitory Trust and Clearing Corporation which is made up of 3 self-regulating bodies:
|
||||
|
||||
- [DTC](https://www.dtcc.com/about/businesses-and-subsidiaries/dtc) - The Depository Trust Company
|
||||
|
||||
- [NSCC](https://www.dtcc.com/about/businesses-and-subsidiaries/nscc) - National Securities Clearing Corporation
|
||||
|
||||
- [FICC](https://www.dtcc.com/about/businesses-and-subsidiaries/ficc) - Fixed Income Clearing Corporation
|
||||
|
||||
and handles:
|
||||
|
||||
- Physical Stock Certificates and ownership records, big institutional trades (DTC)
|
||||
|
||||
- Securities trades, clearing, and settlement for nearly all transactions involving US based marketplaces (NSCC)
|
||||
|
||||
- Government Securities and Mortgage-Backed Securities (FICC)
|
||||
|
||||
[OCC](https://www.theocc.com/) - Options Clearing Coroporation handles:\
|
||||
Options (shocker, I know)
|
||||
|
||||
[ICC](https://www.theice.com/clear-credit) - Intercontinental Exchance (ICE) Clear Credit handles:\
|
||||
Credit Default Swaps, or CDS for short.
|
||||
|
||||
Naming Scheme (yes the whole thing is important)\
|
||||
example: SR-DTC-2021-005
|
||||
|
||||
- SR - Type of document filed, SR = Self Regulation
|
||||
|
||||
- DTC - Name of self regulated entity filing it
|
||||
|
||||
- 2021 - Year regulation was filed
|
||||
|
||||
- 005 - Sequence filed in (5th, so far)
|
||||
|
||||
✅ = in effect now\
|
||||
❌ = pending review / revision
|
||||
|
||||
Rules To Protect The System
|
||||
|
||||
Stocks/Securities
|
||||
|
||||
- SR-DTC-2021-003: Obligation to Reconcile Activity on a Regular Basis ✅\
|
||||
*The "You're gonna report your risk daily now, you little shits" Rule.*\
|
||||
Filed 2021-03-09\
|
||||
Effective 2021-03-16\
|
||||
[src](https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/comments/m793h7/new_dtcc_rule_just_passed_in_effect_immediatly/)
|
||||
|
||||
- SR-DTC-2021-004: Amend the Recovery & Wind-down Plan ✅\
|
||||
*The "We'll liquidate your asse(t)s if you default, then make your pals chip in, before we pay a dime ourselves" Rule.*\
|
||||
Also stipulates what the DTCC is willing to cover when reconciling, as in only shares on the books, and why you (yes you Ape) should have a cash account and not a margin account.\
|
||||
Filed 2021-03-29\
|
||||
Effective Immediately\
|
||||
[src](https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/comments/mgs05i/analysis_of_srdtc2021004_dtcc_changing_the_game/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf)
|
||||
|
||||
- SR-DTC-2021-005: Modify the DTC Settlement Service Guide and the Form of DTC Pledgee's Agreement ✅\
|
||||
*The "We're tagging the shares you lend out so you can't do it more than once" Rule.*\
|
||||
While this won't help prevent the current GME squeeze scenario, and would likely ignite the engines on its own, this will prevent a *GME-like* scenario from happening again in the future. [u/Leenixus](https://www.reddit.com/user/Leenixus/) has posted lots of info around DTC-2021-005 if you'd like to follow the saga.\
|
||||
Filed 2021-04-01 [archived original](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/o2nx3z/i_have_the_original_sec_srdtc2021005_before_it/)\
|
||||
Removed for further review src-1\
|
||||
Refiled 2021-06-15 src-2\
|
||||
Effective Immediately upon re-filing\
|
||||
[src-1](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/mpmcyz/good_news_update_on_dtc2021005_according_to_john/), [src-2](https://www.dtcc.com/-/media/Files/Downloads/legal/rule-filings/2021/DTC/SR-DTC-2021-005.pdf)
|
||||
|
||||
- SR-DTC-2021-006: Remove the Security Holder Tracking Service ✅\
|
||||
*The "We're dropping the old way of tracking shares, cause it didn't work well, and DTC-2021-005 will do it better" Rule.*\
|
||||
It was speculated in another post that the old system of tracking needed to be removed so there was no conflict in implementing DTC-2021-005 (I can't find that post here on reddit anymore, src needed!). It's likely that this could pave the way for 005 to be implemented. As if 2021-05-20 I am more inclined to think that it was removed to keep anyone from implementing share tracking prior to 005 being implemented. Filed 2021-04-22\
|
||||
Effective Immediately\
|
||||
[src](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/mwhyhw/sec_files_srdtc2021006_removing_the_old_and/) <- also my post
|
||||
|
||||
- SR-DTC-2021-007: Update the DTC Corporate Actions Distributions Service Guide ✅\
|
||||
*The "Stop bickering back and forth over the manual adjustments to your peer to peer trade records via the dumb APO method, and just use the GD computer validated Claim Connect system, please" Rule.*\
|
||||
Way to make a super vague title DTC... This is mostly about borrowed shares and updating who pays how much when circumstances - like rates - change. The old system (APO) needed both parties to just agree on the adjustments and one side could only submit an adjustment at a time, so it was rarely agreed upon in one pass and the bad guys could likely stall with many back and forths. To me this reads as a please use this better thing now, because APO will go away on July 9th 2021 so you'll have to use Claim Connect by then anyways. Since the lender is likely incentivized to use the new system, it may get adopted in higher numbers sooner.\
|
||||
Filed 2021-04-30\
|
||||
Effective Immediately\
|
||||
Mandatory 2021-07-09\
|
||||
[src](https://www.sec.gov/rules/sro/dtc.htm#SR-DTC-2021-007), [Explainer post](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/n28jes/new_dtc_regulation_posted_srdtc2021007/)
|
||||
|
||||
- SR-DTC-2021-009: Provide Enhanced Clarity for Deadlines and Processing Times ✅\
|
||||
*The "Don't assume we'll be keeping up with our own deadlines just because we have been in the past. We'll do what we want when we want. Also dont cry to us if our choices about deadlines, or someone else's rules about deadlines, kick you in the wallet. We're not chipping in for that." Rule.*\
|
||||
This is basically a re-statement of an ongoing policy by the DTC that their precedent around deadlines/timetables that they themselves have control over should not be misunderstood as a guarantee of them adhering to those same deadlines/timetables in the future. This does not effect deadlines imposed by external regulations though. Further, the DTC stipulates that they are not liable for damages (monetary losses) that are incurred by members from the DTC's choices to act or not act in the same timeframes as they had before, or damages from the actions of anybody else's rules, (SEC, OCC, NSCC, etc).\
|
||||
Filed 2021-06-08\
|
||||
Effective Immediately\
|
||||
[src](https://www.sec.gov/rules/sro/dtc/2021/34-92198.pdf), [Explainer post](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/o1ds30/new_dtc_filing_srdtc2021009_notice_of_filing_and/), [more info](https://reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/o63ev5/dtc2021009_implemented_tomorrow_saying_the_dtc/)
|
||||
|
||||
- SR-NSCC-2021-002: Amend the Supplemental Liquidity Deposit Requirements ✅\
|
||||
*The "We'll margin call your ass if your new daily reports say you're overextended and make us feel scared" Rule.*\
|
||||
Works in conjunction with DTC-2021-003. This rule now appears to be clear to be acted on by the SEC. NSCC filed a Partial Ammendment to this on June 17th for clarification.\
|
||||
Possible insight on why this may have been strategically delayed, via [/u/yosaso](https://www.reddit.com/u/yosaso/) src-4\
|
||||
NSCC-2021-801 Gave Advance Notice of this, and as of 2021-05-04 is cleared to be included with NSC-2021-002. src-2\
|
||||
Filed 2021-03-05\
|
||||
Comment Period Extended to 05-31 / Expected action on or before 2021-06-21 src-3\
|
||||
Approved 2021-06-21 with partial ammendment src-4\
|
||||
Effective 2021-06-23 src-5 [src](https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/comments/mc0zfn/too_ape_didnt_read_summary_of_srnscc2021801/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf), [src-2](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/n51u5d/sec_has_no_objections_to_nscc801/), [src-3](https://www.sec.gov/rules/sro/nscc/2021/34-91788.pdf), [src-4](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/n67h63/the_reason_why_may_4th_was_important/), [src-4](https://www.sec.gov/rules/sro/nscc/2021/34-92213.pdf), [src-5](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/o4z0jc/implementation_of_the_proposed_changes_to_the/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3)
|
||||
|
||||
- SR-NSCC-2021-004: Amend the Recovery & Wind-down Plan ✅\
|
||||
*The "Just so we're clear about stocks specifically, we're really serious about us not paying for your fuckups unless we have to rule" Rule.*\
|
||||
Works in conjunction with DTC-2021-004, but this is specific to securities and was filed first. src-1 This ALSO has language in it about clarifying the mass transfer of customer accounts from a failing member to a stable member. src-2\
|
||||
Filed 2021-03-05\
|
||||
Effective 2021-03-18\
|
||||
[src-1](https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/comments/mc0zfn/too_ape_didnt_read_summary_of_srnscc2021801/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf), [src-2](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/mvybgf/sec_is_expecting_the_need_for_a_mass_emergency/)
|
||||
|
||||
- NSCC-2021-005: Increase the NSCC's Minimum Required Fund Deposit *pending* ❌\
|
||||
*The "We're gonna up your minimum deposit with us from an hysterically low $10K each, to an almost certainly still not enough $250k each" Rule.*\
|
||||
DTCC has submitted this to SEC, but SEC has not approved / published yet, so details may change. src-1\
|
||||
Filed 2021-04-26\
|
||||
Published: 2021-05-10\
|
||||
Approved: Pending, expected action on or before 2021-06-24 (45 days after publication)\
|
||||
Effective: Approval + 10 days max\
|
||||
[src-1](https://www.dtcc.com/legal), [Explainer post](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/mz9gl6/nscc2021005_has_been_signed_today_implementation/)
|
||||
|
||||
Options
|
||||
|
||||
- SR-OCC-2021-003: Increase Persistent Minimum Skin-In-The-Game / Waterfall ✅\
|
||||
*The "You Market Makers are gonna give us more money now in case you fuck up with options later and owe someone more than you have" Rule.*\
|
||||
This is the rule associated with the SR-OCC-2021-801 advanced notice, and SIG filed an opposition during the review period delaying the implementation. src-1 You can read that whiney rant here via this [comment](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nhh0f1/update_go_nogo_for_launch_the_checklist_keeping/gznui8r?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3)\
|
||||
OCC-2021-003 is now approved and both should be in effect no later than Tuesday 2021-06-01 10am Eastern (if SEC approval notice counts as the official written notice to OCC members). src-2\
|
||||
Filed 2021-02-10\
|
||||
Approved 2021-05-27\
|
||||
Effective on or before 2021-06-01 10am EST\
|
||||
[src-1](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/mm8pnz/update_from_sec_on_srocc2021801_aka_srocc2021203/), [src-2](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nmjbov/srocc2021003_approved_that_one_was_needed_for/gzqwqzc?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3)
|
||||
|
||||
Credit Default Swaps
|
||||
|
||||
- SR-ICC-2021-005: Amend the ICC Recovery & Wind-down Plan ✅\
|
||||
*The "Guys, DTC had a pretty good idea, lets also liquidate members first before touching our own cash." Rule.*\
|
||||
Fairly straightforward with this nugget as described by [u/Criand](https://www.reddit.com/u/Criand/):\
|
||||
"Something really cool is they'll not only wipe out members who default on a certain security, they'll wipe out similar positions in that same security of all their other members IF it's high risk/stress to the market."\
|
||||
Filed 2021-03-23\
|
||||
Approved 2021-05-10\
|
||||
Effective Immediately\
|
||||
[src](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nfl69o/new_icc_rules_summary_they_are_preparing_for/)
|
||||
|
||||
- SR-ICC-2021-007: Update the ICC's Treasury Operations Policies and Procedures ✅\
|
||||
*The "Your capital balance sheet is looking a little shaggy there, we think you need a Collateral Haircut" Rule.*\
|
||||
Tightens up what can and cant be considered as collateral, trimming off the stuff that is not deemed worthy, and reducing overall capital, which means you can handle less total risk and/or volatile CDS contracts.\
|
||||
Filed 2021-03-29\
|
||||
Approved 2021-05-13\
|
||||
Effective Immediately\
|
||||
[src](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nfl69o/new_icc_rules_summary_they_are_preparing_for/)
|
||||
|
||||
- SR-ICC-2021-008: Update the ICC Risk Management Model Description ✅\
|
||||
*The "We're gonna start using our best guesses on if the collateral for the loans these psuedo-insurance contracts are based on might go crazy in the near future, 'cause shit is getting weird out there" Rule.*\
|
||||
This is about [Credit Default Swaps](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/creditdefaultswap.asp), which are a bit complex. Essentially this rule appears it primarily will help to reduce the chances of say, BofA failing because they agreed to get paid to take on some of the risk of a loan made by say JP Morgan, and then BofA got fucked over just because JP Morgain made the loan using a volatile stock as collateral and then that stock went bananas... a stock which everyone probably knew was volatile but somehow wasn't a big factor in making the agreement before this rule. The rule also limits the ICC maximum total losses/payout, and ups initial margin requirements.\
|
||||
Filed 2021-03-31\
|
||||
Approved 2021-05-18\
|
||||
Effective Immediately\
|
||||
[src](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nfl69o/new_icc_rules_summary_they_are_preparing_for/)
|
||||
|
||||
- SR-ICC-2021-009: Update the ICC Risk Parameter Setting and Review Policy ✅\
|
||||
*The "We're basing risk on day to day averages now instead of month to month averages" Rule.*\
|
||||
When something strays too far outside of the acceptable baseline, it gets flagged. Now that baseline is automatically calculated day to day, instead of month to month, and manualy reviewed the old way at least monthly. It will result in faster response time to fast moving changes and real risks (safer), but also less shock from too few updates (smoother). All that so they can keep margin levels appropriate. Also cleans up some language to be more generic and descriptive like "Extreme Price Change Scenarios."\
|
||||
Filed 2021-04-02\
|
||||
Approved 2021-05-20\
|
||||
Effective Immediately\
|
||||
[src](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nhdw0f/rick_management_updates_just_went_from_monthly_to/)
|
||||
|
||||
- SR-ICC-2021-014: Update the ICC's Fee Schedules ✅\
|
||||
*The "Huuuuuuuge discounts on swaps! Get 'em while they last!" Rule.*\
|
||||
This cuts fees on CDS contracts about 25%, which sounds like they want to incentivize risk sharing even more. Program is for the 2nd half of 2021, and discounts start June 1st.\
|
||||
Filed 2021-05-07\
|
||||
Approved 2021-05-18\
|
||||
Effective Immediately\
|
||||
[src](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nfl69o/new_icc_rules_summary_they_are_preparing_for/)
|
||||
|
||||
Rules to protect the value of the market in general as best as possible
|
||||
|
||||
- SR-OCC-2021-004: Revisions to OCC's Auction Participation Requirements ✅\
|
||||
*The "Everyone can come to the feeding frenzy party when we liquidate one of you idiots" Rule.*\
|
||||
Allows more firms that were traditionally excluded from an auction of this type to now join in, probably making the market wide bleeding end sooner, and retain more value overall.\
|
||||
Filed 2021-03-19\
|
||||
Effective 2021-05-19\
|
||||
[src](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/mnpzu5/srocc2021004_why_this_proposed_rule_change_is/)
|
||||
|
||||
Non-regulation / Other Announcments
|
||||
|
||||
- Exchange Act Rule 15c3-3 Compliance Letter: Staff Statement on Fully Paid Lending ✅\
|
||||
*The "We're making you keep full collateral on hand for your shit, you've got six months to get it together" letter.*\
|
||||
Letter sent 2020-10-22\
|
||||
Effective 2021-04-22\
|
||||
[src](https://www.sec.gov/news/public-statement/staff-fully-paid-lending?utm_medium=email&utm_source=govdelivery)
|
||||
|
||||
- GOV-1085-21: DTCC / FICC White Paper Announcing WABR added as a Sponsored Member ✅\
|
||||
WABR Cayman Limited is a firm specializing in helping Institutional Sales Traders in times of "thin markets". [u/stellarEVH](https://www.reddit.com/u/stellarEVH/) explains:\
|
||||
*"When a company needs to quickly pay off their debts as in the case of a margin call, it can be challenging for them to gather all the money from their various investments. There are firms in place that are specialized in liquidating their portfolio in a manner to minimize market impact while they pay off their debt."*\
|
||||
Announced 2021-04-23\
|
||||
Effective 2021-04-29\
|
||||
[src](https://www.dtcc.com/-/media/Files/pdf/2021/4/23/GOV1085-21PDF.PDF), via [this post & comments](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/my1hio/friday_the_dtcc_approved_wabra_morgan_stanley/), linked from [It's Just a Bug, Bro Part 6 - Bug Spray Edition](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/myl37p/its_just_a_bug_bro_part_6_bug_spray_edition/)\
|
||||
[Additional info on who WABR is](https://reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/mz4oza/the_rabbit_hole_of_wabr_cayman_company_limited/) 👀 *Spidey senses are tingling*\
|
||||
*I love this community*
|
||||
|
||||
- MBS978-21: FICC Notice on MBSD Intraday Mark-to-Market Charge - Timing of Intraday Collection ✅\
|
||||
*We've been lenient for the past year cause shit was wack, but we're going back on that regular hourly assesment for margins.* "Starting on May 3, 2021, the fixed time of 1:00PM will be eliminated and the MBSD Intraday Mark-to-Market Charge will return to an hourly assessment." This combined with other things will tighten the screws.\
|
||||
[/u/stellarEVH](https://www.reddit.com/u/stellarEVH/) bringing that good good again: *"For example, it'll be much harder to short GameStop and/or trade in dark pools when you're expected to cover your margin every hour. For the last year, they've only needed to prove they were covered at 1pm."*\
|
||||
Notice Date 2021-04-21\
|
||||
Effective 2021-05-03\
|
||||
[src post](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/n3m0qu/the_mandatory_dtcc_common_stock_reallocation_for/), [explainer comment](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/n3m0qu/the_mandatory_dtcc_common_stock_reallocation_for/gwr8n2a?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3)
|
||||
|
||||
- OCC Notice 48718: TEMPORARY INCREASE TO CLEARING FUND SIZE ✅\
|
||||
*Yeah if you could give us some more of your money for a bit, that would be great.*\
|
||||
Yeah they used all caps, and gave 2 days notice before they would just go into members bank accounts to get that money. Must've needed it bad for the 19th, because it normally is just increased monthly on the 1st. Total increase was $588,378,155.\
|
||||
Notice Date 2021-05-17\
|
||||
Deposit by Date 2021-05-19 [by 9am](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nfz9xa/huge_crypto_dump_currently_things_are_hotting_up/).\
|
||||
[src](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nftyg4/occ_has_issued_a_statement_to_all_clearing/)
|
||||
|
||||
*(please help me fill in other important rules via comments)*
|
||||
|
||||
2 - Funding
|
||||
|
||||
Opinion - Status: Go for Launch ✅
|
||||
|
||||
To pay out for shares of GME
|
||||
|
||||
- [SHF Pulling money from crypt0](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bitcoin-doge-ethereum-ripple-price-monday-19-april-crypto-latest-081427050.html)
|
||||
|
||||
- SHF Pump and Dump on other stocks
|
||||
|
||||
- SHF Liquidate other Assets Under Management (market-wide dive on 2021-04-22?) [Citadel Sell-off?](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/n0fwx2/kenny_might_be_in_a_bit_of_a_pickle_right_now/)
|
||||
|
||||
- Wind Down and Recovery Strategies (SR-DTC-2021-004, SR-ICC-2021-005)
|
||||
|
||||
- *(other suggestions w/ sources wanted)*
|
||||
|
||||
Secure cash to buy up liquidated assets to prevent total market collapse
|
||||
|
||||
- [Big Banks do a Bond Sales](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/mu8a5m/6_out_of_the_7_top_listed_us_banks_have_made/), [Citigroup: "Me Too!"](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/mzvcli/citigroup_borrowing_55_billion_in_latest_bank/)
|
||||
|
||||
- Need plausible reasons for making those sales such as earnings report, or LIBOR to SOFR switch, or *insert wildcard like $50 Bil Football League*, etc ...
|
||||
|
||||
- Banks Re-Structuring / Netting [src](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/mur8bz/srdtc2021004_the_dtcc_and_jp_morgan_theyre/)
|
||||
|
||||
- [Wells Fargo to liquidate two of its trusts](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nh5ed7/wells_fargo_to_liquidate_two_of_its_trusts/)
|
||||
|
||||
- Rule SR-OCC-2021-004 allowing more players at the auction of the defaulting member's assets.
|
||||
|
||||
3 - Cover for Timing of Launch
|
||||
|
||||
Opinion - Status: No-Go for Launch ❌\
|
||||
*This will likely be the very last one, and we'll only know what they will use as an excuse once it's started. I think all the other pieces would need to be in place* (Narrator: They are.) *for them to feel most confident to light the fuse. This will be more oportunistic in nature, I think.*
|
||||
|
||||
I'm splitting this into 2 objectives: why GME is going up, and why the market in general is tanking.
|
||||
|
||||
GME Go BRRRRRRRRRRRR! Cover
|
||||
|
||||
Ideally a plausible Corporate or Market Event that the stock price "should" respond to in order to initiate upward price movement without the timing looking SUS AF and destabilizing the broader market due to fear of systemic problems and/or loss of public trust. These events are mostly out of the control of The System, and one will likely be the ignition.
|
||||
|
||||
- Corporate: ~~AGM Voting Proxy Release~~
|
||||
|
||||
- Corporate: ~~Quarterly Earnings (Q1 2021)~~
|
||||
|
||||
- Corporate: ~~CEO Announced~~
|
||||
|
||||
- Corporate: ~~AGM Vote Count + Board Elections~~
|
||||
|
||||
- Corporate: ~~RC Appointed as Chairman Official News~~
|
||||
|
||||
- Corporate: ~~New Cash Reserves from ATM Stock Offer~~
|
||||
|
||||
- Corporate: Dividend Issue / Stock Split
|
||||
|
||||
- Corporate: Major Partner Announcement
|
||||
|
||||
- Corporate: Possible NFT Announcement 2021-07-14?
|
||||
|
||||
- Market: Broader Retail Gains
|
||||
|
||||
- Market: $GME moves from Russell 2000 to Russell 1000 after close on 2021-06-25
|
||||
|
||||
- TBD / Unkown
|
||||
|
||||
Markets Go clank! Cover
|
||||
|
||||
Major policy announcements, world politics, regularly scheduled economic reports released... Pick your favorite here, cause they will and already have. This cover will justify why the markets are hemorhaging to hide the fact that positions are being liquidated to start paying for buying-back all those GME shares.
|
||||
|
||||
- Market: Global Supply Chain Issue
|
||||
|
||||
- Market: Liquidity Stress Tests
|
||||
|
||||
- [April 26th, 2021](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/mww2ah/dtcc_planning_liquidity_risk_testing_on_26th/)
|
||||
|
||||
- [May 13th, 2021](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/n763vq/dtcc_members_are_having_a_liquidity_check_may_13th/)
|
||||
|
||||
- Note: As far as I can tell, these happened yearly, typically in April/May, but only once... 2 back to back?
|
||||
|
||||
- Government: ~[POTUS joint address to Congress](https://apnews.com/article/joe-biden-nancy-pelosi-coronavirus-pandemic-267e753a5d1ab7a72d3274728b25f63c)\
|
||||
Green New Deal? Capital Gains Announcement: [similar to BS on 2021-04-22?](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-04-22/biden-to-propose-capital-gains-tax-as-high-as-43-4-for-wealthy)
|
||||
|
||||
- Government: [2021-05-06 Congressional Hearing with SEC / Gensler, DTCC / Bodson, FINRA / Cook.](https://financialservices.house.gov/news/documentsingle.aspx?DocumentID=407762)
|
||||
|
||||
- Government: [2021-05-26+27 Congressional Hearing with Big Banks](https://financialservices.house.gov/news/documentsingle.aspx?DocumentID=407740)
|
||||
|
||||
- Government: Monthly [Consumer Price Index numbers released](https://www.bls.gov/schedule/news_release/cpi.htm), next is June 13th
|
||||
|
||||
- Government: [US Treasury Stability Council Meeting June 11th](https://www.reuters.com/article/usa-treasury-stability-idUSL2N2N638S)\
|
||||
Possible platform for policy announcement? Typically hold 6 +/- a year, but this would be first of 2021 and was postponed from May 21st.
|
||||
|
||||
- Government: [US 2022 Fiscal Year Budget Proposal](https://www.reuters.com/world/us/biden-propose-6-trillion-us-budget-2022-fiscal-year-nyt-2021-05-27/)
|
||||
|
||||
- *(other suggestions wanted)*
|
||||
|
||||
4 - Fallguy, and the Lack of Prevention
|
||||
|
||||
Opinion - Status: Go for Launch ✅\
|
||||
*While they will likely have a fallguy decided upon prior to launch, I don't see it as a necessity that would delay it, certainly not like the Rules of Engagement or Funding would. I also think that nothing would keep them from changing the story if something else influences the narrative in an acceptable way shortly after liftoff.*
|
||||
|
||||
Blame!
|
||||
|
||||
After the market pain is significant enough that the public wants answers, why not lay all the blame on bad actors, and defer attention from the system to try to avoid additional exterior regulation.
|
||||
|
||||
- SHFs (now liquidated) as overly greedy and got what they deserved
|
||||
|
||||
- Retail (as Anarchists, or greedy and oportunistic)
|
||||
|
||||
- [Forbes article on January Gamma Squeeze](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/mvf7r3/forbes_reminder_as_we_hodl_towards_the_moass_gme/gvc5c8f/?context=3)
|
||||
|
||||
- Foreign Actors trying to destabilize the US Markets
|
||||
|
||||
- *(other suggestions w/ sources wanted)*
|
||||
|
||||
Control Public Image of the System via PR
|
||||
|
||||
- DTCC: ["We're doing a great job! Take our word for it!"](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/mvozps/dtcc_trying_to_get_ahead_of_the_story_the_most/?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share)
|
||||
|
||||
- DTCC: "We're announcing our plan to keep working on a plan to kind of band-aid a problem that's pretty bad and we've known about for awhile, and like we have definitely been talking about it and stuff, but now we're like really gonna talk about it using words like "in-depth analysis" cause up to now we were mostly just talking about it like how you tell that one friend *"yeah, we should totally hang out soon"* and then you never do, but not now cause we're serious now, and it's definitely not because we've gotta talk to the US Congress this week or anything. Like, honestly." AKA the announcement of [the DTCC's T+1 Settlement Plan.](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/n5b91j/dtcc_rolls_out_plan_and_faq_for_a_new_t1/)
|
||||
|
||||
* * * * *
|
||||
|
||||
...Meanwhile, at the SEC
|
||||
|
||||
"Let's at least *look* like we aren't asleep at the wheel here, lads"
|
||||
|
||||
- [Whistleblower Awards](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/mrfxvg/secgov_sec_awards_over_50_million_to_joint/)
|
||||
|
||||
- [47.4% of the Amount of all SEC Whistleblower Awards Ever Given Have Been Awarded in the Last 12 Months (Out of 105 Months of Program Activity)](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nf3n64/474_of_the_amount_of_all_sec_whistleblower_awards/)
|
||||
|
||||
- [Closed door meetings](https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/comments/mihiv9/another_sec_closed_door_meeting_scheduled_for_48/)
|
||||
|
||||
- [2021-05-27 Sunshine Act Meeting - Scheduled](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nhgh3i/sunshine_meeting_rescheduled_may_27/)
|
||||
|
||||
- These have been cancelled 4 out of 7 times... so far!
|
||||
|
||||
- Speech by SEC Commissioner Peirce inlcuding the line that the SEC is *"working on a report about the events related to meme stock trading earlier this year, and some regulatory initiatives may come out of that work."* and a few other statements about how the SEC shouldn't be concerned with firms loosing money... aka Tough Titties Archegos, et al.\
|
||||
[src post](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/n2ax63/something_apes_missed_read_this/)
|
||||
|
||||
- [SEC sues HF, filed 5/19/21- states NAKED SHORT SELLING is ILLEGAL and ask FOR a JULY TRIAL!!!](https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/comments/nhmaxw/sec_sues_hf_filed_51921_states_naked_short/)
|
||||
|
||||
Any and all additions you think may belong on this list, feel free to put in the comments, and I'll try to update and give credit where possible. If I got any of these wrong, or you've found better links that explain the rules, let me know in the comments and I'll make those edits.
|
||||
|
||||
Contributions noted where possible, and initial start from previous work on Recent Filings by [/u/Antioch_Orontes](https://www.reddit.com/u/Antioch_Orontes/) [here.](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/msh5mt/a_brief_overview_of_recent_filings_from_the_dtc/)
|
||||
|
||||
Looking for the TL;DR? It's at the top.
|
||||
|
||||
* * * * *
|
||||
|
||||
Buy. Hodl. Buckle Up.
|
||||
|
||||
... and make history.
|
||||
|
||||
🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀
|
||||
|
||||
Edit 2021-05-22:\
|
||||
Typos, add expected effective timeframe for DTC-2021-005. May 27th SEC Meeting Scheduled. SEC Lawsuit. Restructured the 3rd/Cover section to clarify for some comments and feedback about why I think cover is important. Also by now I've got plenty of reddit points/currency, so spend new money on GME!
|
||||
|
||||
Edit 2021-05-28:\
|
||||
SR-OCC-2021-003 approved. Add CPI release as market drop cover, US Treasury meeting, US Budget Proposal.
|
||||
|
||||
Edit 2021-06-21:\
|
||||
SR-DTC-005 approved and in effect, SR-NSCC-2021-002 / 801 approved. SR-DTC-2021-009 added. Updated expected timeline for SR-NSCC-2021-005
|
||||
|
||||
Edit 2021-06-23:\
|
||||
SR-DTC-2021-009 updated with additional info. Added move to Russell 1000 as possible cover story (thanks [u/godkyle11](https://reddit.com/user/godkyle11/) for the prompt). Updated section 3 to better illustrate corporate events now in the past.
|
@ -0,0 +1,34 @@
|
||||
Dark Pools, Price Discovery and Short Selling/Marking
|
||||
=====================================================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/dlauer](https://www.reddit.com/user/dlauer/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/o70lid/dark_pools_price_discovery_and_short/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
[DD 👨🔬](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22DD%20%F0%9F%91%A8%E2%80%8D%F0%9F%94%AC%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||
Recently, and since I've joined this sub-reddit, there have been a ton of questions around the role that Dark Pools play in US equity market structure. I wanted to put together a post to clarify some things about how they operate, what they do, and what they cannot do.
|
||||
|
||||
Dark pools were created as part of Regulation ATS (Alternative Trading System) in 1998. Originally they were predominantly ECNs (Electronic Crossing Networks), including ones you're familiar with today as exchanges such as Arca and Direct Edge. Ultimately though, most dark pools after Reg NMS was implemented in 2007 were either broker-owned (such as UBS, Goldman, Credit Suisse and JP Morgan, to name the top 4 DPs today) or independent block trading facilities, such as Liquidnet. Note that I am not discussing OTC trading, which is what Citadel and Virtu do to internalize retail trades. I'll talk about that in a bit.
|
||||
|
||||
To understand Dark Pools, and what makes them different from exchanges, you need to understand some regulatory nuances, and some market data characteristics. From a regulatory perspective, it is easier to get approval for a dark pool (regulated by FINRA), than an exchange (regulated by the SEC). This is on purpose - ATSs are supposed to be a way to foster competition and innovation. Unfortunately, that has resulted in 40+ dark pools and extreme off-exchange fragmentation.
|
||||
|
||||
Most dark pools are there ostensibly to allow institutional asset managers to post large orders that they do not want to be visible on an exchange. This is the fundamental difference between dark pools and exchanges - no orders are visible on dark pools (hence "dark"), whereas you can have visible orders on exchanges. Now, you can also have hidden orders on exchanges. And there's nothing preventing an ATS from posting quotes (Bloomberg used to do this on the FINRA ADF). However, generally speaking, today, there aren't dark pools that show any posted orders.
|
||||
|
||||
So what about trades? All trades in the national market system have to be printed to a SIP feed. It does not matter where they happen. And all trades during regular trading hours (9:30am - 4pm) MUST be within the NBBO. These are hard and fast rules that cannot be violated. All trades on exchanges are reported to the regular SIP. All trades that happen off exchange (ATS or OTC) are reported to the Trade Reporting Facility (TRF) run by NYSE, Nasdaq or FINRA (there are 3 of them). All trades have to be reported to the TRF within 10 seconds of being executed, though the reality is that they are reported nearly instantaneously:
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/32d06z9kn7771.png?width=827&format=png&auto=webp&s=726e2d7857e2bf6d1baeea21eff3e696127ed8d5)
|
||||
|
||||
There was a question on FOX and Twitter yesterday - can hedge funds "go short" in dark pools and not need to report it? I did not mean to be flippant in my tweet about how that is non-sensical, but I had a long day yesterday and had no brain power left. But such a statement is non-sensical. That's not how dark pools work.
|
||||
|
||||
There is practically no difference at all between trades executed on-exchange or off-exchange, especially when you're talking about reporting short positions or short sale marking. The rules are identical, regardless. Short-sale marking is not dependent on whether you trade on-exchange or off-exchange. I'm not trying to make a statement as to whether firms are doing it adequately or accurately, but there is no nexus with dark pools here. I also have never heard of this idea that firms will choose whether to execute on-exchange or off-exchange based on where they want "buying pressure" or "selling pressure" to show up. Every sophisticated trading firm out there is watching the TRF and categorizing every trade that takes place relative to the NBBO. Every time a trade happens at the ask (or near it) they characterize that as a buy. Every time a trade happens at the bid (or near it) they characterize it as a sell. You cannot hide what you are doing in dark pools or through OTC internalization - it cannot be done. All trades are public and reported within 10 seconds.
|
||||
|
||||
Here's what I think was trying to be said. If trades are taking place OTC, such as retail orders that are being internalized by Citadel or Virtu, both of those firms qualify as Market Makers. Market Makers DO have an exemption for short selling - they are allowed to do so without having located the shares first. However, they still have to mark those sales as "short" and they are still, under standard rules, required to ultimately locate those shares. Again, I'm not trying to get into whether there is naked shorting taking place, or whether these rules are being followed - that's a different conversation. I'm just trying to help you understand that dark pools are not nefarious, and that there is very little difference between dark pools and exchanges from a trading, position marking and reporting perspective.
|
||||
|
||||
Ok, so finally, to get to the meat of this - can you use dark pools and off-exchange trading to artificially hold down the price of a stock? I struggle to see the mechanism by which this can be done. I've never heard of it, other than here. As I've said several times, every trade needs to be reported. Every single retail trade that buys GME at the ask is reported to the tape. There's no hiding that. The only market manipulation I've ever studied and measured, and that has been subject to enforcement action by the SEC, has been on exchanges. That is done with layer and spoofing, or other manipulative practices such as banging the close. Retail buying pressure OTC will be picked up on by firms watching the tape, and it will also find its way on to exchanges as the internalizers need to lay off their inventory (they will accumulate shorts, and want to close out those positions). You might claim that this is where naked shorting comes in, but again that's a speculative leap, and really hard to imagine that firms that excel at risk management would put themselves in such a position. I'm not saying it doesn't happen - enforcement actions and lawsuits make it clear that this is an issue. But even if it does happen, the trades to open those short positions were printed to the tape for everyone to see - they cannot be hidden.
|
||||
|
||||
tldr; The only difference between dark pools and exchanges is that dark pools don't display quotes, where exchanges do. Dark pool trades are all publicly reported within 10 seconds. You cannot get around short sale marking and position reporting requirements based on where you trade (dark pool or exchange). I don't believe you can suppress the price of a stock through manipulation that only involves dark pools or off-exchange trading, as it is all publicly reported.
|
||||
|
||||
EDIT: Let me clear on something: There is WAY too much off-exchange trading. This harms markets. It acts as a disincentive to market makers on lit exchanges. I want market makers on exchanges to make money, and I want open competition for order flow. Off exchange trading is antithetical to those aims. It has its place for institutional orders. But the level of off exchange trading, especially in stocks traded heavily by retail such as GME is a symptom of a broken market structure with intractable conflicts-of-interest, such as PFOF. When the head of NYSE says that the NBBO isn't doing its job for price discovery, this is what she is referring to. If I, as a market maker, post a better bid on-exchange, and then suddenly a bunch of off-exchange trades happen at the price level I just created, then the off-exchange trades are free-riding my quote. They are taking no risk, and reaping the reward, while I take all the risk on-exchange and do not get the trade. That's a real problem in markets, and it's why I have pushed hard for rules to limit dark pool trading, such as you find in Canada, UK, Europe and other markets.
|
@ -0,0 +1,324 @@
|
||||
House of Cards - Part 2
|
||||
=======================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/atobitt](https://www.reddit.com/user/atobitt/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nlwaxv/house_of_cards_part_2/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
[DD 👨🔬](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22DD%20%F0%9F%91%A8%E2%80%8D%F0%9F%94%AC%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||
*Prerequisite DD:*
|
||||
|
||||
1. [Citadel Has No Clothes](https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/comments/m4c0p4/citadel_has_no_clothes/)
|
||||
|
||||
2. [The EVERYTHING Short](https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/comments/mgucv2/the_everything_short/)
|
||||
|
||||
3. [The House of Cards -- Part 1](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/mvk5dv/a_house_of_cards_part_1/)
|
||||
|
||||
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________
|
||||
|
||||
TL;DR- No freaking way I can do that.
|
||||
|
||||
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
|
||||
|
||||
1. Pilot
|
||||
|
||||
I wasn't looking into GameStop when all of this began. Most of my time was spent researching the pandemic's impact on the economy. I'm talking about the economic steam engine that employs people and puts food on their tables. Especially the small businesses that were executively steamrolled by COVID lockdowns. It was scary how fast they had to close their doors.
|
||||
|
||||
I spent a lot of time looking at companies like GameStop. Brick-n-mortar businesses were basically running out of bricks to sh*t. Frankly, GameStop looked a lot like the next Blockbuster and it just seemed like a matter of time before they went under. Had DFV not done his homework, it's possible we wouldn't have a rocket to HODL or a story to TODL.
|
||||
|
||||
Whoever has/had a short position with GameStop was probably thinking the same thing. The number of shares that can be freely traded on a daily basis is referred to as "the float". GameStop has 70,000,000 shares outstanding, but 50,000,000 shares represented "the float". With a small float like this, a [short position of 20% becomes significant](https://bullishbears.com/vw-short-squeeze/). Heck, Volkswagen got squozed with just a [12.8%](https://bullishbears.com/vw-short-squeeze/) short position. So let's use little numbers to walk through an example of how this works.
|
||||
|
||||
Assume VW has 100 shares outstanding. If 12.8% of the company has been sold short, then 12.8 shares (let's just say 13) must be available to purchase at a later date (assuming VW doesn't go bankrupt). However, VW had a float of 45% which meant there was no real strain to cover that 12.8% short position at any moment. However, when Porsche announced they wanted to increase their position in VW, they invested HEAVILY.
|
||||
|
||||
*"The kicker was that Porsche owned 43% of VW shares, 32% in options, and the government owned 20.2%.... In plain terms, it meant that the actual available float went from 45% down to 1% of outstanding shares" (bullishbears.com/vw-short-squeeze/).*
|
||||
|
||||
Let's revisit our scenario. With 100 shares outstanding and 13 shares sold short, what happens if only 1 share was available to cover instead of 45?
|
||||
|
||||
Well..... THIS:
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/c1n24ypq5k171.jpg?width=348&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=2401d50c3ec1197e08564be1ffbd643558e52b6a)
|
||||
|
||||
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________
|
||||
|
||||
GameStop is/was the victim of price suppression through short selling. I discussed this topic with [Dr. T](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fGVY2Kco8ng) and [Carl Hagberg](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KHnpPfWdf78) in [our AMAs.](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KHnpPfWdf78) Every transaction has two sides- a buy and a sell. Short selling artificially increases the *supply* of shares and causes the price to decline. When this happens, the price can only increase if *demand* exceeds the increase in supply.
|
||||
|
||||
I started looking closely at GameStop after confirming their reported short position of [140%](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-retail-trading-congress-shorting/short-selling-under-spotlight-in-gamestop-hearing-idUSKBN2AJ026). It's important for me explain this why this is so much different than the VW example...
|
||||
|
||||
140% of GameStop's FLOAT was sold short. There were 50,000,000 shares in that float, so 140% of this was equal to the 70,000,000 shares the company has outstanding. This means AT LEAST 100% of their outstanding shares has been sold short. Now compare that to VW where the short position was only 12.8%... Simply put, it is mathematically impossible to cover more than 100% of a company's outstanding stock.
|
||||
|
||||
The *peak* of the VW squeeze was reached when the demand for shares became surpassed by the supply of those shares. Here, demand represents 12.8% of their stock which must be available to close the short position. With only 1% of shares available, this guaranteed a squeeze until the number of shares available to trade could satisfy the remaining short interest.
|
||||
|
||||
When a company has a short position with more than 100% of total shares outstanding, the preceding argument is thrown out the window. Supply cannot surpass demand because the company can only issue 100% of itself at any given time. Therefore, the additional 40% could only be explained by multiple people claiming ownership of the same share... Surely this is a mistake.. right? I thought this level of short selling was impossible..
|
||||
|
||||
..Until I saw the number of short selling violations issued by FINRA..
|
||||
|
||||
As we go through these FINRA reports, there are a few things to keep in mind:
|
||||
|
||||
1. FINRA is not a part of the government. FINRA is a non-profit entity with [regulatory powers set by congress](https://www.finra.org/about). This makes FINRA the largest self-regulatory organization (SRO) in the United States. The SEC is responsible for setting rules which protect individual investors; FINRA is responsible for overseeing most of the brokers (collectively referred to as members) in the US. As an SRO, FINRA sets the rules by which their members must comply- they are not directly regulated by the SEC
|
||||
|
||||
2. FINRA investigates cases at their own pace. When looking at the "*Date Initiated"* on their reports, it is not synonymous with "*date of occurrence".* Many times, FINRA will not say when a problem occurred, just resolved. It can be YEARS after the initial occurrence. The [DTC participant report](https://www.dtcc.com/-/media/Files/Downloads/client-center/DTC/alpha.pdf) is littered with cases that were initiated in 2019 but occurred in 2015, etc. Many of the violations occurring today will take years to discover
|
||||
|
||||
3. FINRA can issue a violation for each occurrence using a 1:1 format. When it comes to violations like short selling, however, these "occurrences" can last months or even years. When this happens, FINRA issues a violation for multiple occurrences using a 1:MANY format. I discussed this event in [Citadel Has No Clothes](https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/comments/m4c0p4/citadel_has_no_clothes/) where one violation represented FOUR YEARS of market f*ckery. What's sh*tty is that FINRA doesn't tell you which violations are which. You have to read each line and see if they mention a date range of occurrence within each record. If they don't, you must assume it was for one event... BRUTAL
|
||||
|
||||
4. FINRA's investment portfolio is held by the same entities they are issuing violations to... Let that sink in for a minute
|
||||
|
||||
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________
|
||||
|
||||
2. State your case...
|
||||
|
||||
Can you think of a reason why short sellers would want to understate their short positions? Put yourself in their situation and imagine you're running a hedge fund...
|
||||
|
||||
You operate in a self-regulated (SRO) environment and your records are basically private. If the SEC asks you to justify suspicious behavior, you really don't have to provide it. The worst that could happen is a slap on the wrist. I wrote about this EXACT same thing in [Citadel Has No Clothes](https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/comments/m4c0p4/citadel_has_no_clothes/). They received a cease-and-desist order from the SEC on 12/10/2018 for failing to submit complete and accurate records. This 'occurred' from November 2012 through April 2016 and contained deficient information for over 80,000,000 trades. Their punishment... $3,500,000... So why even bother keeping an honest ledger?
|
||||
|
||||
Now, suppose you short a bunch of shares into the market. When you report this to FINRA, they require you to mark the transaction with a short sale indicator. In doing so, FINRA builds a paper trail to your short selling activity.
|
||||
|
||||
However... if you omit this indicator, FINRA can't distinguish that transaction from a long sale. Who else would there be to hold you accountable for covering your position? This is especially true for self-clearing organizations like Citadel because there are less parties involved to hold you accountable with recordkeeping. If FINRA thinks you physically owned those shares and sold them (long sale), they have no reason to revisit that transaction in the future... You could literally pocket the cash and dump the commitment to cover.
|
||||
|
||||
Another very important advantage is that it allows short sellers to artificially increase the supply of shares while understating the outstanding short interest on that security. The supply of shares being sold will drive down the price, while the short interest on the stock remains the same.
|
||||
|
||||
So.. aside from paying a fine, how could you possibly lose by "forgetting" to mark that trade with a short sale indicator? It would seem the system almost incentivizes this type of behavior.
|
||||
|
||||
I combed through the [DTC participant report](https://www.dtcc.com/-/media/Files/Downloads/client-center/DTC/alpha.pdf) and found enough dirt to fill the empty chasm that is Ken Griffin's soul. Take a guess at what their most common short selling violation is.. I'm going to assume you said "FAILING TO PROPERLY MARK A SHORT SALE TRANSACTION".
|
||||
|
||||
For the record, I just want to say I called this in March when I wrote [Citadel Has No Clothes](https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/comments/m4c0p4/citadel_has_no_clothes/). Citadel has one of the highest concentrations of short selling violations in their FINRA report. At the time, I didn't fully understand the consequences of this violation... After seeing how many participants received the same penalty, it finally made sense.
|
||||
|
||||
There are roughly 240 participant account names on the DTC's list. Sh*t you not, I looked at every short selling violation that was published on [Brokercheck.finra.org](https://brokercheck.finra.org/). To be fair, I eliminated participants with only 1 or 2 violations related to short selling. There were PLENTY of bigger fish to fry.
|
||||
|
||||
I literally picked the first participant at the top of the list and found three violations for short selling.
|
||||
|
||||
*cracks knuckles*
|
||||
|
||||
[ABN AMRO Clearing Chicago LLC](https://files.brokercheck.finra.org/firm/firm_14020.pdf) (AACC) is the 3rd largest bank in the Netherlands. They got popped for three short selling violations, one of which included a failure-to-deliver. In total, they have 78 violations from FINRA. Several of these are severe compared to their violations for short selling. However, the short selling violations revealed a MUCH bigger story:
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/3t5ylyfz5k171.jpg?width=1055&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=f961999d09eeee7fbe42364700cbc727869f9e3f)
|
||||
|
||||
So... ABN AMRO submitted an inaccurate short interest position to the NYSE and FINRA and lacked the proper supervisory systems to comply with... practically everything...
|
||||
|
||||
In 2014, AMRO forked over $95,000 to settle this and didn't even say they were sorry.
|
||||
|
||||
In these situations, it's easy to think *"meh, could have been a fluke event"*. So I took a closer look and found violations by the same participants which made it much harder to argue their case of sheer negligence. Here are a couple for AMRO:
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/vir299076k171.jpg?width=1079&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=e17e6ceff040a4be0113c1bc4e435f29fb5ce0a6)
|
||||
|
||||
ABN AMRO got slapped with a $1,000,000 fine for understating capital requirements, failing to maintain accurate books, and failing to supervise employees. If you mess up once or twice but end up fixing the problem- GREAT. When your primary business is to clear trades and you fail THIS bad, there is a much bigger problem going on. It gets hard to defend this as an accident when every stage of the trade recording process is fundamentally flawed. The following screenshot came from the same violation:
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/mnpm2gz96k171.jpg?width=733&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=7e5c66293566b7ca2329f20bcdb634c35395943f)
|
||||
|
||||
[Warehouse receipts](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/w/warehousereceipt.asp#:~:text=A%20warehouse%20receipt%20is%20used,well%20as%20provide%20inventory%20management.) are like the receipts you get after buying lumber online. You can print these out and take them to Home-Depot, where you exchange them for the ACTUAL lumber in the store. Instead of trading the actual goods, you can trade a warehouse receipt instead... so yeah... since this ONE record allowed AMRO to meet their customer's margin requirement, it seems EXTREMELY suspicious that they didn't appropriately remove it once they were withdrawn.
|
||||
|
||||
Do I think this was an accident? F*ck no. Because FINRA reported them 8 years later for doing the SAME F*CKING THING:
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/sv0v5igw6k171.jpg?width=1071&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=02f17082135c702fad6bbc064073ae031151cee7)
|
||||
|
||||
Once again, AMRO got caught understating their margin requirements. Last time, they used the value of withdrawn warehouse receipts to meet their margin requirements. Here, they're using securities which weren't eligible for margin to meet their margin requirements..
|
||||
|
||||
You can paint apple orange, but it's still an apple..
|
||||
|
||||
The bullsh*t I read about in these reports doesn't really shock me anymore. It's actually the opposite.. You begin to *expect* bigger fines as they set higher benchmarks for misconduct. When I find a case like AMRO, I'll usually put more time into it because certain citations represent puzzle pieces. Once you find enough pieces, you can see the bigger picture. So believe me when I say I was genuinely shocked by the [detail report](https://www.finra.org/sites/default/files/fda_documents/2016049875801%20ABN%20AMRO%20Clearing%20Chicago%20LLC%20CRD%2014020%20AWC%20va%20%282019-1572740384682%29.pdf) on this case...
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/4lgyti547k171.jpg?width=844&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=633a928d28caef8cc6719873532aef60f271cefb)
|
||||
|
||||
This has been going on for 8 F*CKING YEARS!?
|
||||
|
||||
Without a doubt, this is a great example of a violation where the misconduct supposedly *ended* in 2015 but took another 4 years for FINRA to publish the d*mn report. If my math is correct, the 8 year "relevant period" plus the 4 years FINRA spent... I don't know... reviewing?... yields a total of 12 years. In other words, from the time this problem started to the time it was publicized by FINRA, the kids in 1st grade had graduated high school...
|
||||
|
||||
Does anyone else think these self-regulatory organizations (SROs) are doing a terrible job self-regulating...? How we can trust these situations are appropriately monitored if it takes 12 years for a sh*t blossom to bloom?
|
||||
|
||||
...OH! I almost forgot... After understating their margin requirements in 22 accounts for over 8 years, ABN AMRO paid a $150,000 fine to settle the dust...
|
||||
|
||||
____________________________________________________________________________________________________
|
||||
|
||||
I know that was a sh*t load of information so let me summarize it for you:
|
||||
|
||||
One of the most common citations occurs when a firm "accidently" marks a short sale as long, or misreports short interest positions to FINRA. When a short sale occurs, that transaction should be marked with a short sale indicator. Despite this, many participants do it to avoid the borrow requirements set by Regulation SHO. If they mark a short sale as long, they are not required to locate a borrow because FINRA doesn't know it's a short sale.
|
||||
|
||||
This is why so many of these FINRA violations include a statement about the broker failing to locate a borrow along with the failure to mark a short sale indicator on the transaction. It literally means the broker was naked short selling a stock and telling FINRA they physically owned that share..
|
||||
|
||||
Suddenly, a "small" violation had much bigger implications. The number of short shares that have been excluded from the short interest calculation is directly related to these violations... and there are HUNDREDS of them. Who knows how many companies have under reported short interest positions..
|
||||
|
||||
To be clear, I did NOT choose them based on the amount of 'dirt' they had. AMRO's violations were like grains of sand on a beach and It's going to take A LOT of dirt to fill the bottomless pit that is Ken Griffin's soul. Frankly, ABN AMRO wouldn't get us there with 10,000 FINRA violations. So without further ado, let's get dirty..
|
||||
|
||||
____________________________________________________________________________________________________
|
||||
|
||||
2. Call em' out...
|
||||
|
||||
When FINRA publishes one of their reports, the granular details like numbers and dates are often left out. This makes it impossible to determine how systematic a particular issue might be.
|
||||
|
||||
For example, if you know that *"XYZ failed to comply with FINRA's short interest reporting requirements"* your only conclusion is that the violation occurred. However, if you know that *"XYZ failed to comply with FINRA's short interest reporting requirements on 15,000 transactions during 2020"* you can start investigating the magnitude of that violation. If XYZ only completed 100,000 transactions in 2020, it means 15% of their transactions failed to meet requirements. This represents a major systematic risk to XYZ and the parties it conducts business with.
|
||||
|
||||
I spent some time analyzing [Apex Clearing Corporation](https://files.brokercheck.finra.org/firm/firm_13071.pdf) after I left ABN AMRO. Apex is 8th on the list and the 2nd participant I found with an evident short selling problem.
|
||||
|
||||
In 2019, FINRA initiated a case against Apex for doing the same sh*t as ABN AMRO. However, the magnitude of this violation really put things into perspective: I got a small taste of how f*cked this house of cards truly is..
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/u1b4zh6m7k171.jpg?width=1076&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=0f14f5fa49e73dad79ff605464fc1c64fa73f5bd)
|
||||
|
||||
This is practically a template of the first ABN AMRO violation we discussed. To see the difference, we need to look at their [letter of Acceptance, Waiver and Consent](https://www.finra.org/sites/default/files/fda_documents/2016049448301%20Apex%20Clearing%20Corporation%20CRD%2013071%20AWC%20va%20%282019-1573777189509%29.pdf) (AWC)..
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/zaiywobp7k171.jpg?width=938&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=7fe2d2323e757efcdedf2ab22aa1ff34e10d7d55)
|
||||
|
||||
Let's break this down step-by-step...
|
||||
|
||||
Apex had an issue for 47 months where certain customers recorded their short positions in an account which was NOT being sent to FINRA. It only takes a few wrinkles on the brain to realize this is a problem. The sample data tells us just how bad that problem is..
|
||||
|
||||
When you see the term "*settlement days",* think "[T+2](https://www.schwab.com/resource-center/insights/content/stock-settlement-why-you-need-to-understand-t2-timeline#:~:text=the%20seller's%20account.-,When%20does%20settlement%20occur%3F,would%20typically%20settle%20on%20Wednesday.)". Apex follows the T+2 settlement period for both [cash accounts and margin accounts](https://www.apexclearing.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/Apex-Customer-Information-Brochure-2019.pdf) which means the trade *should* clear 2 days after the original trade date. When you buy stock on a Monday, it should settle by Wednesday.
|
||||
|
||||
Ok.. quick maff...
|
||||
|
||||
There are roughly [252 trading days](https://therobusttrader.com/how-many-trading-days-are-there-in-a-year/) in one year after removing weekends and holidays. Throughout the 47 month "review period", we can safely assume that Apex had roughly 987 ((252/ 12) * 47) settlement dates...
|
||||
|
||||
In other words: 256 misstated reports over 47 months is more than 1 misstatement / week for nearly 4 years. Tell me again how this is *trivial?*
|
||||
|
||||
The wording of the "sample settlement" section is a bit ambiguous... It doesn't clarify if those were the only 2 settlement dates they sampled, or if they were the only settlement dates with reportable issues. Honestly, I would be shocked if it was the latter because auditors don't examine every record, but I can't be certain...
|
||||
|
||||
Anyway... FINRA discovered 256 short interest positions, consisting of 481,195 shares, were *incorrectly* excluded from their short interest report. In addition, they understated the share count by 879,321 in 130 separate short interest positions. Together, this makes 1,360,516 shares that were excluded from the short interest calculation. When you realize nearly 1.5 million 'excluded' shares were discovered in just 2 settlement periods and there were almost 1,000 dates to choose from, it seriously dilates the imagination...
|
||||
|
||||
Once again... FINRA wiped the slate clean for just $140,000...
|
||||
|
||||
I want to talk about one last thing before we jump to the next section. Did you happen to notice the different account types that Apex discussed in their [letter of Acceptance, Waiver and Consent](https://www.finra.org/sites/default/files/fda_documents/2016049448301%20Apex%20Clearing%20Corporation%20CRD%2013071%20AWC%20va%20%282019-1573777189509%29.pdf) ? They specifically instructed their customers to book short positions into a TYPE 1 (CASH) account, or TYPE 5 (SHORT MARGIN) account. A short margin account is just a margin account that holds short positions. The margin requirement for short positions are more strict than regular margin accounts, so I can see the advantage in separating them.
|
||||
|
||||
In the [AMA with Wes Christian](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2rJujnpKiqM) *(starting at 7:30)*, he specifically discussed how a broker-dealer's margin account is used to locate shares for short sellers. However, the margin account contains shares that were previously pledged to another party. Given the lack of oversight in securities lending, the problem keeps compounding each time a new borrower claims ownership of that share.
|
||||
|
||||
Now think back to the situation with Apex..
|
||||
|
||||
They asked their customers to book short positions to a short-margin account or a cash account. The user agreement with a margin account allows Apex to continue lending those securities at any time. As discussed with Dr. T and Carl Hagberg, the broker collects interest for lending your margin shares and doesn't pay you anything in return. When multiple locates are authorized for the same share, the broker collects multiple lending fees on the same share.
|
||||
|
||||
In contrast, the cash account falls under the protection of [SEA 15c3-3](https://www.finra.org/sites/default/files/SEA.Rule_.15c3-3.pdf) and consists of shares that have not been leveraged- or lent- like the margin-short account. According to Wes *(starting at 8:30)*, these shares are segregated and cannot be touched. The broker cannot encumber-or restrict- them in any way. However, according to Wes, this is currently happening. He also explained how Canada has legalized this and currently allows broker-dealers to short sell your cash account shares against you.
|
||||
|
||||
____________________________________________________________________________________________________
|
||||
|
||||
Alright.... I'll stop beating the dead horse regarding short sale indicators & inaccurate submissions of short interest positions. Given the volume of citations we haven't discussed, I'll summarize some of my findings, below.
|
||||
|
||||
Keep in mind these are ONLY for "FAILURE TO REPORT SHORT INTEREST POSITIONS" or "FAILURE TO INDICATE A SHORT SALE MODIFIER". If the violations contain additional information, it's because that citation actually listed additional information. It does NOT represent an all-inclusive list of short selling violations for these participants.
|
||||
|
||||
...You wanted to know how systematic this problem is, so here you go... *(EACH BROKER-DEALER NAME IS HYPERLINKED TO THEIR FINRA REPORT)*
|
||||
|
||||
1. [Barclays](https://files.brokercheck.finra.org/firm/firm_19714.pdf) | Disclosure 36 -- "SUBMITTED 86 SHORT INTEREST POSITIONS TOTALING 41,100,154 SHARES WHEN THE ACTUAL SHORT INTEREST POSITION WAS 44,535,151 SHARES.. FAILED TO REPORT 8 SHORT INTEREST POSITIONS TOTALING 1,110,420 SHARES"
|
||||
|
||||
a. $10,000 FINE
|
||||
|
||||
2\. [Barclays](https://files.brokercheck.finra.org/firm/firm_19714.pdf) | Disclosure 54 -- "SUBMITTED AN INACCURATE SHORT INTEREST POSITION TO FINRA AND FAILED TO REPORT ITS SHORT INTEREST POSITIONS IN 835 POSITIONS TOTALING 87,562,328 SHARES"
|
||||
|
||||
a. $155,000 FINE
|
||||
|
||||
3\. [BMO Capital Markets Corp](https://files.brokercheck.finra.org/firm/firm_16686.pdf) | Disclosure 23 -- "SUBMITTED SHORT INTEREST POSITIONS TO FINRA THAT WERE INCORRECT AND FAILED TO REPORT TO FINRA ITS SHORT INTEREST POSITIONS TOTALING OVER 72 MILLION SHARES FOR 11 MONTHS"
|
||||
|
||||
a. $90,000 FINE
|
||||
|
||||
4\. [BNP Paribas Securities Corp](https://files.brokercheck.finra.org/firm/firm_15794.pdf) | Disclosure 53 -- "FAILED TO REPORT TO FINRA ITS SHORT INTEREST IN 2,509 POSITIONS TOTALING 6,051,974 SHARES"
|
||||
|
||||
a. $30,000 FINE
|
||||
|
||||
5\. [BNP Paribas Securities Corp](https://files.brokercheck.finra.org/firm/firm_15794.pdf) | Disclosure 9 -- "ON 35 OCCASIONS OVER A FOUR-MONTH PERIOD, A HEDGE FUND SUBMITTED SALE ORDERS MARKED "LONG" TO BNP FOR CLEARING. FOR EACH OF THOSE "LONG" SALES, ON THE MORNING OF SETTLEMENT, THE HEDGE FUND DID NOT HAVE THE SHARES IN IT'S BNP ACCOUNT TO COVER THE SALE ORDER. IN ADDITION, BNP WAS ROUTINELY NOTIFIED THAT THE HEDGE FUND WOULD NOT BE ABLE TO COVER. NEVERTHELESS, WHEN EACH SETTLEMENT DATE ARRIVED AND THE HEDGE FUND WAS UNABLE TO COVER, BNP LOANED THE SHARES TO THE HEDGE FUND. IN TOTAL, BNP LOANED MORE THAN 8,000,000 SHARES TO COVER THESE PURPORTED "LONG" SALES"
|
||||
|
||||
a. $250,000 FINE
|
||||
|
||||
6\. [Cantor Fitzgerald & Co](https://files.brokercheck.finra.org/firm/firm_134.pdf) | Disclosure 1 - (literally came out on 5/6/2021) -- "THE FIRM SUBMITTED INACCURATE SHORT INTEREST POSITIONS TO FINRA. THE FIRM OVERREPORTED NEARLY [55,000,000 SHORT SHARES](https://www.finra.org/sites/default/files/fda_documents/2018059464001%20Cantor%20Fitzgerald%20%26%20Co.%20CRD%20134%20AWC%20va.pdf) WHICH WERE CUSTODIED WITH AND ALREADY REPORTED BY ITS CLEARING FIRM, WITH WHICH CANTOR MAINTAINS A FULLY DISCLOSED CLEARING AGREEMENT"
|
||||
|
||||
a. $250,000 FINE
|
||||
|
||||
7\. [Cantor Fitzgerald & Co](https://files.brokercheck.finra.org/firm/firm_134.pdf) | Disclosure 31 - "...THE FIRM EXECUTED NUMEROUS SHORT SALE ORDERS AND FAILED TO PROPERLY MARK THE ORDERS AS SHORT... THE FIRM, ON NUMEROUS OCCASIONS, ACCEPTED SHORT SALE ORDERS IN AN EQUITY SECURITY FROM ANOTHER PERSON, OR EFFECTED A SHORT SALE FROM ITS OWN ACCOUNT WITHOUT BORROWING THE SECURITY..."
|
||||
|
||||
a. $53,500 FINE
|
||||
|
||||
8\. [Cantor Fitzgerald & Co](https://files.brokercheck.finra.org/firm/firm_134.pdf) | Disclosure 33 - "...EXECUTED SHORT SALE ORDERS AND FAILED TO PROPERLY MARK THE ORDERS AS SHORT. THE FIRM HAD FAIL-TO-DELIVER POSITIONS AT A REGISTERED CLEARING AGENCY IN THRESHOLD SECURITIES FOR 13 CONSECUTIVE SETTLEMENT DAYS... FAILED TO IMMEDIATELY CLOSE OUT FTD POSITIONS... ACCEPTED SHORT SALE ORDERS FROM ANOTHER PERSON, OR EFFECTED A SHORT SALE FROM ITS OWN ACCOUNT, WITHOUT BORROWING THE SECURITY OR HAVING REASONABLE GROUNDS TO BELIEVE THAT THE SECURITY COULD BE BORROWED..."
|
||||
|
||||
a. $125,000 FINE
|
||||
|
||||
9\. [Canaccord Genuity Corp](https://files.brokercheck.finra.org/firm/firm_1020.pdf) | Disclosure 17 - "THE FIRM EXECUTED SALE TRANSACTIONS AND FAILED TO REPORT EACH OF THESE TRANSACTIONS TO THE FINRA/NASDAQ TRADE REPORTING FACILITY AS SHORT"
|
||||
|
||||
a. $57,500 FINE
|
||||
|
||||
10\. [Canaccord Genuity Corp](https://files.brokercheck.finra.org/firm/firm_1020.pdf) | Disclosure 20 - "THE FIRM EXECUTED SHORT SALE ORDERS AND FAILED TO PROPERLY MARK THE ORDERS AS SHORT"
|
||||
|
||||
a. $27,500 FINE
|
||||
|
||||
11\. [Canaccord Genuity Corp](https://files.brokercheck.finra.org/firm/firm_1020.pdf) | Disclosure 31 - "...SUBMITTED TO NASD MONTHLY SHORT INTEREST POSITION REPORTS THAT WERE INACCURATE"
|
||||
|
||||
a. $85,000 FINE
|
||||
|
||||
12\. Citadel Securities LLC | [Citadel Has No Clothes](https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/comments/m4c0p4/citadel_has_no_clothes/) -- LITERALLY ALL I TALK ABOUT IN THAT POST. GO READ IT
|
||||
|
||||
13\. [Citigroup Global Markets](https://files.brokercheck.finra.org/firm/firm_7059.pdf) | Disclosure 10 -- "THE FIRMS TRADING PLATFORM FAILED TO RECOGNIZE THAT THE FIRM WAS SELLING SHORT WHEN IT WAS ACTING AS THE CONTRA PARTY TO A CUSTOMER TRADE. AS A RESULT, THE FIRM ERRONEOUSLY REPORTED SHORT SALES TO A FINRA TRADE REPORTING FACILITY AS LONG SALES... EFFECTING SHORT SALES FROM ITS OWN ACCOUNT WITHOUT BORROWING THE SECURITY..."
|
||||
|
||||
a. $225,000 FINE
|
||||
|
||||
14\. [Citigroup Global Markets](https://files.brokercheck.finra.org/firm/firm_7059.pdf) | Disclosure 59 -- "...THE FIRM RECORDED 203,653 SHORT SALE EXECUTIONS ON ITS BOOKS AND RECORDS AS LONG SALES, SUBMITTED INACCURATE ORDER ORIGINATION CODES AND ACCOUNT TYPE CODES TO THE AUDIT TRAIL SYSTEM FOR APPROXIMATELY 2,775,338 ORDERS... "
|
||||
|
||||
a. $300,000 FINE
|
||||
|
||||
15\. [Citigroup Global Markets](https://files.brokercheck.finra.org/firm/firm_7059.pdf) | Disclosure 76 -- "...FAILED TO PROPERLY MARK APPROXIMATELY 9,717,875 SALE ORDERS AS SHORT SALES... FINDINGS ALSO ESTIMATED THAT THE FIRM ENTERED 55 MILLION ORDERS INTO THE NASDAQ MARKET CENTER THAT IT FAILED TO CORRECTLY INDICATE AS SHORT SALES..."
|
||||
|
||||
a. $2,250,000 FINE
|
||||
|
||||
16\. [Cowen and Company LLC](https://files.brokercheck.finra.org/firm/firm_7616.pdf) | Several Disclosures -- almost every other disclosure is for failing to mark a sale with the appropriate indicator, including short AND long sale indicators
|
||||
|
||||
17\. [Credit Suisse Securities LLC](https://files.brokercheck.finra.org/firm/firm_816.pdf) | Disclosure 34 -- "NEW ORDER REPORTS WERE INACCURATELY ENTERED INTO ORDER AUDIT TRAIL SYSTEM (OATS) AS LONG SALES BUT WERE TRADE REPORTED WITH A SHORT SALE INDICATOR"
|
||||
|
||||
a. $50,000 FINE
|
||||
|
||||
18\. [Credit Suisse Securities LLC](https://files.brokercheck.finra.org/firm/firm_816.pdf) | Disclosure 95 -- "BETWEEN SEPTEMBER 2006 AND JUNE 2008, CREDIT SUISSE FAILED TO SUBMIT ACCURATE PERIODIC REPORTS WITH RESPECT TO SHORT POSITIONS..."
|
||||
|
||||
a. $40,000 FINE
|
||||
|
||||
19\. [Deutsche Bank Securities INC.](https://files.brokercheck.finra.org/firm/firm_2525.pdf) | Disclosure 50 -- "THE FIRM FAILED TO REPORT SHORT INTEREST POSITIONS IN DUALLY-LISTED SECURITIES"
|
||||
|
||||
a. $200,000 FINE
|
||||
|
||||
20\. [Deutsche Bank Securities INC.](https://files.brokercheck.finra.org/firm/firm_2525.pdf) | Disclosure 52 -- "THE FIRM... EXPERIENCED MULTIPLE PROBLEMS WITH ITS BLUE SHEET SYSTEM THAT CAUSED IT TO SUBMIT INACCURATE BLUE SHEETS TO THE SEC AND FINRA... INCORRECTLY REPORTED LONG ON ITS BLUE SHEET TRANSACTIONS WHEN CERTAIN TRANSACTIONS SHOULD HAVE BEEN MARKED SHORT"
|
||||
|
||||
a. $6,000,000 FINE (SEVERAL OTHER ISSUES REPORTED IN ADDITION TO SHORTS)
|
||||
|
||||
21\. [Deutsche Bank Securities INC.](https://files.brokercheck.finra.org/firm/firm_2525.pdf) | Disclosure 58 -- "BETWEEN JANUARY 2005 AND CONTINUING THROUGH NOVEMBER 2015, THE FIRM IMPROPERLY INCLUDED THE AGGREGATION OF NET POSITIONS IN CERTAIN SECURITIES OF A NON-US BROKER AFFILIATE... IN ADDITION... DURING THE PERIOD BETWEEN APRIL 2004 AND SEPTEMBER 2012, THE FIRM INAPPROPRIATELY REPORTED CERTAIN SHORT INTEREST POSITIONS ON A NET, INSTEAD OF GROSS, BASIS.."
|
||||
|
||||
a. $1,400,000 FINE
|
||||
|
||||
22\. [Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC](https://files.brokercheck.finra.org/firm/firm_361.pdf) | Disclosure 32 -- "THE FIRM REPORTED SHORT SALE TRANSACTIONS TO FINRA TRADE REPORTING FACILITY WITHOUT THE REQUIRED SHORT SALE MODIFIER"
|
||||
|
||||
a. $260,000 FINE (SEVERAL OTHER ISSUES REPORTED IN ADDITION TO SHORTS)
|
||||
|
||||
23\. [Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC](https://files.brokercheck.finra.org/firm/firm_361.pdf) | Disclosure 54 -- "FAILED TO ACCURATELY APPEND THE SHORT SALE INDICATOR TO FINRA/NASDAQ TRADE REPORTING FACILITY REPORTS... INACCURATELY MARKED SELL TRANSACTIONS ON ITS TRADING LEDGER"
|
||||
|
||||
a. $55,000 FINE
|
||||
|
||||
24\. [Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC](https://files.brokercheck.finra.org/firm/firm_361.pdf) | Disclosure 63 -- "...SUBMITTED TO FINRA AND THE SEC BLUE SHEETS THAT INACCURATELY REPORTED CERTAIN SHORT SALE TRANSACTIONS AS LONG SALE TRANSACTIONS WITH RESPECT TO THE FIRM SIDE OF CUSTOMER FACILITATION TRADES... THE FIRM REPORTED SHORT SALES AS LONG SALES ON ITS BLUE SHEETS WHEN THE TRADING DESK USED A PARTICULAR MIDDLE OFFICE SYSTEM..."
|
||||
|
||||
a. $1,000,000 FINE
|
||||
|
||||
25\. [Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC](https://files.brokercheck.finra.org/firm/firm_361.pdf) | Disclosure 150 -- "GOLDMAN SACHS & CO. FAILED TO REPORT SHORT INTEREST POSITIONS FOR FOREIGN SECURITIES AND NUMEROUS SHARES ONE MONTH... THE FIRM REPORTED SHORT INTEREST POSITIONS IN SECURITIES TOTALING SEVERAL MILLION SHARES EACH TIME WHEN THE ACTUAL SHORT INTEREST POSITIONS IN THE SECURITIES WERE ZERO SHARES... ACCEPTING A SHORT SALE ORDER IN AN EQUITY SECURITY FROM ANOTHER PERSON, OR EFFECTED A SHORT SALE FROM ITS OWN ACCOUNT, WITHOUT BORROWING THE SECURITY OR BELIEVING THE SECURITY COULD BE BORROWED ON THE DATE OF DELIVERY..."
|
||||
|
||||
a. $120,000 FINE
|
||||
|
||||
26\. [Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC](https://files.brokercheck.finra.org/firm/firm_361.pdf) | Disclosure 167 -- "...THE FIRM FAILED TO REPORT TO THE NMC THE CORRECT SYMBOL INDICATING THAT THE TRANSACTION WAS A SHORT SALE FOR TRANSACTIONS IN REPORTABLE SECURITIES..."
|
||||
|
||||
a. $600,000 FINE (SEVERAL OTHER ISSUES REPORTED IN ADDITION TO SHORTS)
|
||||
|
||||
27\. [HSBC Securities (USA) INC.](https://files.brokercheck.finra.org/firm/firm_19585.pdf) | Disclosure 26 -- "FIRM EXECUTED SHORT SALE TRANSACTIONS AND FAILED TO MARK THEM AS SHORT... HSBC SECURITIES HAD A FAIL-TO-DELIVER SECURITY FOR 13 CONSECUTIVE SETTLEMENT DAYS AND FAILED TO IMMEDIATELY CLOSE OUT THE FTD POSITION... THE FIRM CONTINUED TO HAVE A FTD IN THE SECURITY AT A CLEARING AGENCY ON 79 ADDITIONAL SETTLEMENT DAYS..."
|
||||
|
||||
a. $65,000 FINE
|
||||
|
||||
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________
|
||||
|
||||
I'm going to stop at 'H' because I'm tired of writing. Hopefully, you all understand the point so far. We're only 8 letters into the alphabet and have successfully buried Ken to his waist.
|
||||
|
||||
The system that is used to mark the proper transaction type (sell, buy, short sell, short sell exempt, etc.) is obviously broken... There, I said it.. the system is INDUBITABLY, UNDOUBTEDLY, INEVITABLY F*CKED..
|
||||
|
||||
Regardless of the cause- fraud or negligence- there are too many firms failing to accomplish a seemingly simple task. The consequences of which are creating far more shares than we can imagine. It's a gigantic domino effect. If you fail to properly mark 1,000,000 short shares and a year goes by without catching the problem, it's already too late. They're like the f*cking replicators from Stargate..
|
||||
|
||||
In each of the examples listed above, the short interest on the stock was understated by the number of shares excluded... and that was just a handful..
|
||||
|
||||
Knowing this, how can someone look at the evidence and say it's *trivial....?*
|
||||
|
||||
No one really knows HOW systematic this issue is because it is so deeply incorporated in the market that it has BECOME the system itself. Therefore, there is obviously something much deeper going on, here.. How does one argue against the severity of these problems after reading this? There are FAR too many things that don't make sense and FAR too many people turning a blind eye..
|
||||
|
||||
The only conclusion I keep coming back to is that the people with money know what's going on and are desperately trying to keep it under wraps..
|
||||
|
||||
..So.... In an effort to prove this, I looked for violations that showed their desperation to protect this f*cked up system.
|
||||
|
||||
..Buckle up..
|
||||
|
||||
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________
|
||||
|
||||
*HOUSE OF CARDS - PART 3 (I'm uploading it now; will link ASAP)*
|
@ -0,0 +1,140 @@
|
||||
House of Cards - Part 3
|
||||
=======================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/atobitt](https://www.reddit.com/user/atobitt/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nlwqyv/house_of_cards_part_3/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
[DD 👨🔬](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22DD%20%F0%9F%91%A8%E2%80%8D%F0%9F%94%AC%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||
*Prerequisite DD:*
|
||||
|
||||
1. [Citadel Has No Clothes](https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/comments/m4c0p4/citadel_has_no_clothes/)
|
||||
|
||||
2. [The EVERYTHING Short](https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/comments/mgucv2/the_everything_short/)
|
||||
|
||||
3. [The House of Cards -- Part 1](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/mvk5dv/a_house_of_cards_part_1/)
|
||||
|
||||
4. [The House of Cards - Part 2](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nlwaxv/house_of_cards_part_2/)
|
||||
|
||||
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________
|
||||
|
||||
TL;DR- No freaking way I can do that.
|
||||
|
||||
_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
|
||||
|
||||
Continuing from HOC Part II...
|
||||
|
||||
4. Slimy...
|
||||
|
||||
If you watched the [AMA with Wes Christian](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2rJujnpKiqM), he talks about the number of occurrences where the actual short interest is severely understated based on the data his firm obtained for legal proceedings. According to his numbers, in most cases the short interest is 50% - 150% MORE than what is reported by the SEC *(starting at 14:30).*
|
||||
|
||||
The objective isn't to address the issue: it's to keep the issue hidden. Firms that underreport their short interest are gaming the system by taking advantage of how the short interest calculation is done. When the SEC relies on reports that broker-dealers provide, and FINRA takes YEARS to reveal the lies within those reports, the broker-dealer can lie without immediately facing the consequences. It allows these firms to operate in a high-risk environment without exposing just HOW big their risk-appetite is.
|
||||
|
||||
Another example that Wes mentioned was [Merrill Lynch](https://www.sec.gov/news/pressrelease/2016-128.html). Merrill was fined [$415,000,000](https://files.brokercheck.finra.org/firm/firm_16139.pdf) *(violation 3)* in 2016 for using securities held in their customer's accounts to cover their own trades. Check out this screenshot I took from that case:
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/v9625j8wek171.jpg?width=1115&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=85d43bc351fbda75e347bd33a1a550b67dda970e)
|
||||
|
||||
Remember when we mentioned [SEA 15c3-3](https://www.finra.org/sites/default/files/SEA.Rule_.15c3-3.pdf) in the case with Apex? They were asking customers to book short positions to either a cash account or a short margin account. [SEA 15c3-3](https://www.finra.org/sites/default/files/SEA.Rule_.15c3-3.pdf) protects those customers from allowing brokers to lend out the securities within their cash accounts...
|
||||
|
||||
Well Merrill Lynch knocked that one right out of the f*cking park...
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/s3zok5wyek171.jpg?width=1129&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=815e5344912234ceba846dc0d45c8b8b488b82c4)
|
||||
|
||||
Merrill made it seem like the required deposit in their customer reserve account was much lower than it truly was. They wouldn't have been able to use that cash if it reduced the amount below the minimum capital requirement, so they found a way to fudge the numbers. In doing so, they managed to prevent a CODE RED while reaping the benefits of a high-risk 'opportunity'. Should Merrill have filed bankruptcy during that time, those customers would have been completely blindsided.
|
||||
|
||||
In the case of short selling, the *true* exposure of short interest is unknown... and I'm not just talking about the short sale indicator. When a firm fails to deliver securities that were sold short, there's a pretty good indication that they've exposed themselves to a bit of a problem.. Now imagine a case where the FTDs start piling up and they STILL continue to short sell that same security.. think I'm joking?
|
||||
|
||||
Check out the [Royal Bank of Canada](https://files.brokercheck.finra.org/firm/firm_31194.pdf):
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/u6yl6tj2fk171.png?width=812&format=png&auto=webp&s=1e44cc507247db1e28c00a213f90054b9abdaa6a)
|
||||
|
||||
Again... I was pretty shocked at that one. However, nothing rang-the-bell quite like this one from [Goldman Sachs](https://files.brokercheck.finra.org/firm/firm_361.pdf):
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/5f408er6fk171.png?width=1031&format=png&auto=webp&s=38b9ad83d2a07360af5b5cd99d834a8771b66c93)
|
||||
|
||||
Goldman had 68 occasions in 4 months where they didn't close a failure-to-deliver... In 45 occasions, they CONTINUED to accept customer short sale orders in securities which it had an active failure-to-deliver...
|
||||
|
||||
When a firm is really starting to sweat, they pull certain tricks out of their ass to quell the situation. Again, this is nothing but smoke and mirrors because that's all they can really do. Just as Merrill Lynch artificially lowered their customer reserve deposit, other firms make it look like they cover their short positions.
|
||||
|
||||
One of the ways they do this is by short selling a SH*T load of shares right before a buy-in... Since we're talking about Goldman Sachs, this seems like a great time to showcase their experience with this..
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/zhf1hr1afk171.png?width=1049&format=png&auto=webp&s=f704c3722ae287480057ce3e01c561a28b77cf4c)
|
||||
|
||||
I promise... It really is as dumb as it sounds...
|
||||
|
||||
So the perception here is when Goldman's client has a FTD and they find out a buy-in is coming, the required buy-in would obviously be too extreme for the client to handle.. So they begin to buy those shares while simultaneously shorting AT LEAST the same amount they were required to purchase...
|
||||
|
||||
Have you ever failed to repay a loan so you went to another bank and got a loan to cover the first one? Well that's exactly what this is... I know what you're probably thinking... "didn't that just kick the can down the road?". The answer is YES: it didn't actually solve anything..
|
||||
|
||||
There's still one more citation that Goldman received which truly represents the pinnacle of *no-sh*ts-given.* After I cover this, I don't know how anyone could argue the systematic risks that exist within the securities lending business.. Check it out:
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/0md200bdfk171.png?width=940&format=png&auto=webp&s=cf5e8310fbcbd73699e3593b2ab5dab418055ab0)
|
||||
|
||||
For 5 years, Goldman relied on a team of 10-12 individuals to locate shares to be used by its clients for short selling. This group was known as the "demand team". Naturally, as the number of requests coming in the door started to increase, it became difficult for the team to properly document all of them. The volume peaked at 20,000 requests PER DAY, but the number of individuals that handled this job stayed the same.
|
||||
|
||||
Obviously, this became too much for them to handle so they opted out of the manual process and found another solution- the F3 key....
|
||||
|
||||
Yes- the F3 key... This button activated an autofill system which completed 98% of Goldman's orders to locate shares
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/exqzge3gfk171.png?width=964&format=png&auto=webp&s=ed9c8b740974dad01db69460332c56df81a8d768)
|
||||
|
||||
The problem with Goldman's autofill system was that it used the number of shares available to borrow at the beginning of that day, which had already been accounted for. After using the auto-locate feature, the demand team didn't even verify the accuracy of the autofill feature or document which method was used to locate the shares for each order... and this happened for 5 years..
|
||||
|
||||
Just goes to show how dedicated firms like Goldman Sachs truly are to the smallest of details, you know? Great f*cking work, guys.
|
||||
|
||||
By the way, I have to show one of Goldman's short sale indicator violations... It's too good to pass up.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/5iuhlkcjfk171.png?width=1082&format=png&auto=webp&s=f4e2fa1f106e78b9d282b60c3cee9944e919ea82)
|
||||
|
||||
At some point, you just have to laugh at these ass clowns... I mean seriously... one violation for a 4 year period involving over 380,000,000 short interest positions... they have plenty of other short interest violations, I just laughed at how the magnitude of this one was summarized by FINRA with 10 lines and roughly 4 minutes... whoever wrote that one must have been late for lunch..
|
||||
|
||||
The last thing I'd like to note here is the way in which short sellers use options to "cover" their positions. Wes gave a great overview of this in the AMA *(starting at 6:25)*. Basically, one group will buy puts and another group buys calls. This creates a synthetic share that is only provided if the option is activated. Regardless, short sellers will use that synthetic share to cover their short position and the regulators actually accept it...
|
||||
|
||||
However, as Wes points out, most of those options expire without being activated which means the share is never delivered. This expiration can be set months down the road and allows the short seller to keep kicking the can.
|
||||
|
||||
I doubt I need to say this, but we all remember the wild options activity that was happening shortly after GameStop spiked in January. [u/HeyItsPixel](https://www.reddit.com/u/HeyItsPixel/) was one of the first to point this out. While a lot of that activity was on the retail front, I suspect a lot of it was done by short sellers to cover those positions.
|
||||
|
||||
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________
|
||||
|
||||
5. Hedgies are f*cked...
|
||||
|
||||
I'm officially +20 pages deep and there's still so much I'd like to say. It's best saved for another time and another post, I suppose. So I guess I'll wrap all of this up with some of the best news I can possibly provide...
|
||||
|
||||
It all started with a [73 page PDF](https://www.sec.gov/comments/s7-08-08/s70808-318.pdf) that was published in 2005 by a silverback named John D. Finnerty.
|
||||
|
||||
John was a Professor of Finance at Fordham University when he published *"short selling, death spiral convertibles, and the profitability of stock manipulation"*. The document is loaded with sh*t that's incredibly relevant today, especially when it comes to naked short selling. He dives into the exact formula that short sellers use, which is far beyond what my wrinkled brain can interpret, alone...
|
||||
|
||||
..However, when firms are naked shorting a company with the goal of bankrupting them, they leave footprints which are only explained by this event. The proof is in the pudding, so to speak..
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/ax7u0r4wfk171.jpg?width=1072&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=1828755bfe49c47ca178d960f91dfd21d8b0d680)
|
||||
|
||||
Any of this sound familiar??
|
||||
|
||||
*"The manipulator can not drive the share price close to zero unless he can naked short an extraordinary number of shares...* *this form of manipulation would result in... unusually heavy trading volume, and unusually large and persistent fails to deliver at the NSCC".*
|
||||
|
||||
Anyone else remember the volume in GME during the run-up in January? The total volume traded between 1/31/2021 and 2/5/2021 was 1,508,793,439 shares, or an average daily trade volume of 88,752,555 shares. On 1/22/2021, the volume reached 197,157,946... that's roughly 3x the number of shares that exist..
|
||||
|
||||
if this doesn't sound like unusual volume then I'm not sure what is. Furthermore, the FTD report on GameStop was through the roof during this time:
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/brz98nbzfk171.jpg?width=1625&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=83ae877853acd2ec65fa73f57216f00b708a7eab)
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/zlla3ak0gk171.jpg?width=1038&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=c5d4a1331f8c9d97b5338cc55a37310a95c9559b)
|
||||
|
||||
Notice the statement where the manipulator will be relieved of its obligation to cover IF the firm's shares are cancelled in bankruptcy? Did you happen to see footnotes 65 & 66 in the first screenshot of his PDF? It references a company that he used for his analysis...
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/zdp3at43gk171.jpg?width=997&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=8508c9d0c869544f0ccd3a15477abfd64d38897c)
|
||||
|
||||
Charter Communications had a whopping 241.8% short float in 2005... The ONLY way the manipulator could have escaped this was by bankrupting the company and relieving the obligation to repurchase those shares...
|
||||
|
||||
Guess what happened to Charter? They filed for [bankruptcy](https://abcnews.go.com/Business/story?id=7189668&page=1) in 2009...
|
||||
|
||||
However, unlike John's example where naked short sellers were driving down the price without opposition, GameStop had extremely high demand from retail investors to counter this activity. As I have discussed with Dr. T and Carl Hagberg, the run-up in volume during January and February was largely conducted by naked short sellers in an attempt to suppress the share price. As I have shown in the example with Goldman Sachs, firms will short sell during a buy-in for the same exact reason. To stabilize the price, you must stabilize supply and demand.
|
||||
|
||||
...You know what Charter didn't have?
|
||||
|
||||
AN ARMY OF APES TO HODL THE STONK
|
||||
|
||||
DIAMOND. F*CKING. HANDS
|
@ -0,0 +1,33 @@
|
||||
House of Cards Part 2 & 3 AUDIO
|
||||
===============================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/GoryAmos](https://www.reddit.com/user/GoryAmos/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nlzhrr/house_of_cards_part_2_3_audio/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
[Discussion 🦍](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22Discussion%20%F0%9F%A6%8D%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
I'm one of those apes who needs to listen to the words while they read the words so I am making recordings of [u/atobitt](https://www.reddit.com/u/atobitt/)'s newest additions to the House of Cards trilogy. I figure I'm not the only ape who needs to hear stuff for it to make sense, so I'm sharing my recordings here. Please forgive any flubs and corrections of flubs - I'm reading it all in my head for the first time as I'm reading it all out loud.
|
||||
|
||||
The mp3 for Part 2 is...
|
||||
|
||||
The mp3 for Part 3 will be posted first thing in the AM, probably during pre-market. I'll update this post with the link when it's done.
|
||||
|
||||
UPDATE: omg APES BROKE DROPBOX. I had no idea this would be this popular. My account's been suspended lol. I'm adding a feed to my libsyn podcast account and posting the links through that. Stay tuned, replacement link will be posted shortly
|
||||
|
||||
DOUBLE UPDATE: This is now officially a podcast. Takes some time for it to show up on all the podcast apps, but in the meantime you can listen directly on libsyn here: [https://superstonkddaudio.libsyn.com](https://superstonkddaudio.libsyn.com/)
|
||||
|
||||
I'll update again once Part 3 and Part 1 are done.
|
||||
|
||||
THRUPDATE (that's a portmanteau i just coined for "third update"): Part 3 is LIVE: <https://superstonkddaudio.libsyn.com/house-of-cards-pt-3-by-uatobitt>
|
||||
|
||||
The podcast name is SUPERSTONKDDAUDIO bc i'm an Ape and I forgot to use spaces.
|
||||
|
||||
Spotify and Apple Podcast feeds are being worked on. Spotify should be live later tonight but Apple usually takes about a week to process a new podcast.
|
||||
|
||||
I was so nervous to post the first recording last night - would Apes laugh? would Apes make fun? But I was nervous for naught! Apes support! Apes rejoice!
|
||||
|
||||
So grateful for this community!
|
||||
|
||||
I LOVE THIS STONK.
|
@ -1,9 +1,9 @@
|
||||
A House of Cards parts I, II, & III in PDF
|
||||
==========================================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :----: | :----: |
|
||||
| [u/atobitt](https://www.reddit.com/user/atobitt/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nm83eb/a_house_of_cards_parts_i_ii_iii_in_pdf/) |
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/atobitt](https://www.reddit.com/user/atobitt/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nm83eb/a_house_of_cards_parts_i_ii_iii_in_pdf/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
@ -12,3 +12,9 @@ A House of Cards parts I, II, & III in PDF
|
||||
<https://pdfhost.io/v/lRQ4HqpG0_House_of_Cards_Atobitt.pdf>
|
||||
|
||||
BIIIIIIGGGG shoutout to [u/Softlykile2](https://www.reddit.com/u/Softlykile2/) for providing the link and [u/jupitair](https://www.reddit.com/u/jupitair/) for the post. Go forth and share across all of the interwebs. Let every boomer-ape absorb this information through a traditional & newspapery medium.
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
**Alternative PDF Location in case PDFHost is Down posted by [u/Meticulous-](https://www.reddit.com/user/Meticulous-/)**
|
||||
|
||||
[House-of-Cards-by-atobitt.pdf](https://github.com/verymeticulous/wikAPEdia/files/6721578/House-of-Cards-by-atobitt.pdf)
|
@ -0,0 +1,238 @@
|
||||
The MOASS Preparation Guide 2.0
|
||||
===============================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/socrates6210](https://www.reddit.com/user/socrates6210/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/oakqvt/the_moass_preparation_guide_20/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
[DD 👨🔬](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22DD%20%F0%9F%91%A8%E2%80%8D%F0%9F%94%AC%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||
*******************************************************
|
||||
|
||||
*I'm just gonna start off by saying that this is a sequel to* [*The MOASS Preparation Guide*](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/mm5qle/the_moass_preparation_guide/)*, a post I wrote a few months ago. I felt it deserved an updated version considering so much that has happened recently, also i've learned a lot since then. This guide will be pretty in depth but don't worry, my view is that when you're explaining something, always imagine you're talking to a 5 year old (ELI5). So make yourself a cup of coffee, and grab a tasty crayola and enjoy.*
|
||||
|
||||
*The subsequent sections are as follows:*
|
||||
|
||||
- *Pre-liftoff preparation*
|
||||
|
||||
- *D-Day*
|
||||
|
||||
- *During the MOASS*
|
||||
|
||||
- *Immediate Aftermath*
|
||||
|
||||
- *Long term aftermath*
|
||||
|
||||
*******************************************************
|
||||
|
||||
Please read though this as i believe it is important that we all have an understanding on the game plan 🚀
|
||||
|
||||
Pre-liftoff Preparation
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/pskg3gxrka871.jpg?width=1280&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=09b3bccc95d16594bc2a8cf9e5307e08eaf11058)
|
||||
|
||||
- Brokers preparation - I think everyone should take the time to understand the nuances and rules that the broker applies on trading. Some brokers may have some sneaky fine prints. So you should make sure that nothing can get in the way of you and your tendies.
|
||||
|
||||
- Take note of the brokers that previous placed trade restrictions [here](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/mowzjk/the_broker_preparation_guide/).
|
||||
|
||||
- some brokers (Trading212 for example) have decided to restrict buying if you do not agree to their share lending program (*Do* *NOT* *agree to this.*)
|
||||
|
||||
- If you have all your shares in one of these bad brokers and can't transfer, don't sweat it too much. JUST DO NOT SELL YOUR SHARES. The message was clear as crystal in January: if they prevent free trade like Robinhood did then that means they will lose customers and face litigation, so i *hope* for their sake that they have prepared for this.
|
||||
|
||||
- It also wouldn't hurt to email your brokers customer service and ask them "*will you prevent me from selling if the price goes to X amount?*". Additionally, i would recommend keeping documentation, screenshots and recordings of your positions just incase f*ckery arises. It's good to create a paper trail just incase you need to bring them to court.
|
||||
|
||||
- Back up broker - If you can, open up an account as soon as possible on a reputable broker and buy at least 1 share. Don't aim to maximize gains but to minimize the regret of missing out just in case your broker decides to f*ck you. The rule of thumb is usually that commission based boomer brokers with horrible user interfaces are the most trustworthy. See the "good brokers" in the link above.
|
||||
|
||||
- Diversify Brokers - if you can, spread out your holdings across multiple brokers. Also take note of what clearing house they use. You don't want to be caught up in some f*ckery where both brokers wont let you sell because they share the same clearing house. A solution to this could be to transfer shares. Some brokers allow you to transfer shares to others, but small "shit" brokers like eToro for example, do not. If thats the case then hold tight and buy on a different broker, if you wanna buy more shares.
|
||||
|
||||
- Here is a [list of some brokerages](https://investorjunkie.com/stock-brokers/broker-clearing-firms/) and the respective clearing houses they use.
|
||||
|
||||
- Here is a list of [brokers who placed restrictions](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/mowzjk/the_broker_preparation_guide/) in a follow up post i made.
|
||||
|
||||
- Trading212 for example: they're becoming Robinhood 2.0 now as they decided [to place buy restrictions](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/oa7nq4/fud_alert_t212_simply_do_not_agree_to_terms_hold/) if you don't agree to their share lending program. Admittedly, I am a Trading212 customer. So this is why you should diversify brokers, you never know when they are going to pull some shady shit.
|
||||
|
||||
- *side-note*: I would stay away from brokers that use Apex Clearing, they're shady as shit.
|
||||
|
||||
- Order Routing - Order routing is when an order to buy or sell a stock is sent from your broker to an exchange. There are two kinds of exchanges: *Lit pools and Dark pools.*
|
||||
|
||||
- Dark pools do not display prices at which participants are willing to trade (ie; in the dark), whereas lit pools do show these various bids and offers in a stocks. It's been said that the naked shorting gang pay millions to brokers to have millions of orders routed through their own dark pools, to which they can perform shady business (skimming cents off the spread of every order, suppressing buying pressure etc).
|
||||
|
||||
- This brings me to my point: If you are thinking about buying some shares, you should route it through IEX, which is an exchange that was made in order to mitigate the affects of high frequency trading. [Oh hey, look! Our friends at Citadel don't like IEX](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/oa7st6/citadel_really_doesnt_like_iex_if_you_have_the/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3).
|
||||
|
||||
- Cash account, not margin - if you haven't already, request your broker to change your account from a margin account to a cash account. This way your shares are entirely your own and aren't being lent out to short sellers. Note that you need to have no options or short positions active with your account before you do this. If you are reluctant to switching your account then make sure that you have no withstanding deficits in your account so you don't get margin called and your broker automatically closes positions without your consent. Yes, this has happened to people before.
|
||||
|
||||
- Online Security - If you have learned anything from all this it's that you should not trust anyone. Take the time to enable two-factor authentication on your bank/broker accounts. Also you should have a different password for each account, preferably 20+ characters with a mixture of alphanumeric characters and symbols.
|
||||
|
||||
- Do not use public wifi to log into your broker account.
|
||||
|
||||
- Use a VPN when possible.
|
||||
|
||||
- Taxes - It is crucial that you learn about your countries [capital gains taxes](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/capital_gains_tax.asp). I would go deeper into this, However different tax rates apply in different countries depending on how long you are holding the stock. To keep this general for all users i will say Just google "*what are the tax laws for stocks in <my country>?*". (If you're a smooth brain, dont worry. I have the solution for you in immediate aftermath section)
|
||||
|
||||
- Prepare a personal balance sheet - It may be a good idea to prepare a balance sheet. A balance sheet is a snapshot of net worth and lists all your assets, liabilities, cash etc. This will make your life (*and your accountants life*) easier when you need an accountant. If you need a better understanding of balance sheets see this [video here](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hhKO6MRvk_c).
|
||||
|
||||
- Mental preparation - This one isn't so obvious, but please prepare yourself for seeing life changing money in your possession. Have a long think what you are going to do with this money. And as a side note: try to not tell too people you're invested, the less people know the easier your life will be.
|
||||
|
||||
D-Day
|
||||
|
||||
0:04
|
||||
|
||||
0:08
|
||||
|
||||
- Take care of your health - Firstly, on the day of lift off you will definitely feel overwhelmed with emotions and anxiety. You're probably going to feel a little dizzy seeing the price increase exponentially. Please sit down when you are checking the price. The last thing i want to hear is that a fellow ape fainted and cracked their head because of being overwhelmed with emotions. In my opinion, deep slow [diaphragmatic breathing](https://my.clevelandclinic.org/health/articles/9445-diaphragmatic-breathing) really helps to slow down your heart rate and reduce anxiety.
|
||||
|
||||
- Expect Trading Halts - There is a difference between trading suspension and trading halt. Securities exchanges have the power to temporarily [halt](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/t/tradinghalt.asp), in the middle of the trading day, or delay, at the beginning of the trading day, trading on a stock. halts and delays usually last less than one hour. As opposed to suspensions, which can last two weeks. Suspensions are enforced by the SEC
|
||||
|
||||
- In the case of trading halt: The NYSE may stop trading if the price rises too quickly. This is usually done to prevent massive impulse waves and let people calm down for a few minutes. But this is futile in the setting of a short squeeze, because all shorts must cover regardless. You can also check when GME is halted [here](https://www.nyse.com/trade-halt-current). Do not freak out if the graph flatlines.
|
||||
|
||||
- In the case of trading suspension: I believe that if the infinity pool happens, meaning shorts literally will not be able to cover the potentially billions of synthetic shares they have created, driving the price to literally infinity, that the SEC most likely implement a trading suspension. We won't know unless it happens. But, who knows? They might not. You can read about trading suspensions [here](https://www.sec.gov/oiea/investor-alerts-and-bulletins/ib_tradingsuspensions).
|
||||
|
||||
- BOTS, BOTS EVERYWHERE - This could go two ways: either the shorts don't have anymore money to pay shills or we will have a massive influx of bots/shills on here and <*other stonk subs*> trying to nudge people to sell. They will say something like "wow i sold my 3 shares for 30K" and try to create a narrative that below 100K is the peak. 100K is not the peak. don't listen to it. we set the price.
|
||||
|
||||
- Reddit might be down - during the rally from $40 to $90 in February Reddit inexplicably went offline. It happened a couple of other times before when the price rose considerably. This could be due to a DDOS attack or just too much traffic to the site. Either way, if Reddit does go down don't worry. We are all still here.
|
||||
|
||||
- The only call to action would be to go to the [SuperStonk youtube](https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCI4EET9NJPWxUuXGlG6fxPA) channel, which the mods said they will do an emergency broadcast when things kick off. So go there for communication.
|
||||
|
||||
- Backup places to check out would be the mods twitter pages
|
||||
|
||||
- <https://twitter.com/rensole>
|
||||
|
||||
- <https://twitter.com/RedChessQueen99>
|
||||
|
||||
- <https://twitter.com/PinkCatsOnAcid>
|
||||
|
||||
During the MOASS
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/54mzc28uka871.png?width=1890&format=png&auto=webp&s=e6554f4f0e276f93d84d22c6cd766167638bd9c1)
|
||||
|
||||
- Diamond hands - This one i cannot stress enough, the mantra is clear: HOLD! If you sell early you creating downward pressure against the MOASS. If the short position is in the billions of shares (which has been theorized) then this shouldn't be too much of a problem, but regardless - KEEP THOSE HANDS DIAMOND! The squeeze could last a few days, week or indefinitely. At this point no one knows. Don't feel pressure to sell when it goes $100K+, if the DD is correct (and it has been so far) then we are not stopping add measly hundreds of thousands.
|
||||
|
||||
- A forced buy-back differs from a Margin call, in which a margin call is just a notice to "*increase the amount of money in your account before we close your positions, because you won't be able pay us if this goes any higher*"
|
||||
|
||||
- Prime brokers will implement forced buy-back of hedge funds to cover their short positions. This means they will go the open market and buy them for what ever someone is will to sell them for.
|
||||
|
||||
- The stock price = the last price it sold for. If the only sells available were asking for 1 million, then that means the price will be 1 million. And since it's likely there aren't enough shares in existence to cover the amount of shorting that went on then theoretically this ape filled rocket could blast through the moon and land on Alpha centauri B.
|
||||
|
||||
- Whats an exit strategy? - This one isn't so obvious because the we don't know what the peak will be, but you should have an exit strategy: Plan out what you need on the day of selling, where do you need to be? think about that day and visualize it so you aren't overwhelmed with anxiety when it actually happens. As for selling: all i can say on this matter is do not sell on the way up as it's a bad idea. ([~~explained here that you should~~](https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/comments/m073v6/exit_strategy_dd_a_comprehensive_guide_to/)) Use [this exit strategy](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nogxnr/infinity_war_the_final_exit_dd_compilation/) instead by [u/gherkinit](https://www.reddit.com/u/gherkinit/):
|
||||
|
||||
- Understand the different types of orders - Limit Order, Market Order, Stop Limit Order and Stop Loss Order, explanations on the pro's and cons of each can also be found [here](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nogxnr/infinity_war_the_final_exit_dd_compilation/)
|
||||
|
||||
- Some people have noted that certain brokers have limits on the amount you can place an order for online (in terms of dollar value). Just to be safe make sure you have phone credit and the number for your broker ready to contact them to execute an order if this applies to you.
|
||||
|
||||
- Also, some brokers may not even limit orders (Revolut as far as i know). Don't sweat it, this is beyond your control. Just sell on the way down, or don't. I don't care this is not financial advice.
|
||||
|
||||
- Sit down when you decide to take gains - When the dust has settled and you decide to take gains, again, sit down and drink some water and breath.. because you may faint or possibly get sick from seeing that you have sold a single share for an ungodly amount.
|
||||
|
||||
- Don't publish your realised gains publicly - Obvious one, don't be that person who flaunts the gains online. You are going to cause a lot of fair-weather friends and family to crawl out of the woodwork trying to get their hands on your tendies. It may be tempting to rub it in the faces of the people who doubted you, but just don't. It's not worth it.
|
||||
|
||||
- T+2 settlement - When you sell a share, it actually doesn't get settled until 2 days after it's executed, meaning you don't actually have the money in your brokerage until 2 days later. Learn about the [settlement violations here](https://www.fidelity.com/learning-center/trading-investing/trading/avoiding-cash-trading-violations) before you start going off buying other stocks with your gains. This T+2 settlement also gives the SEC the power to reverse any transactions they seem fit due to violations. Not meant to be FUD, i just thought its useful to know. I doubt they will start reversing transactions during the MOASS, but if it does occur. Hold tight, again: we set the price.
|
||||
|
||||
- WHAT DO WITH MONEY? - It should be known that your regular current/checking account is only insured up to $250,000 if you're in the [US under the FDIC](https://www.fdic.gov/deposit/deposits/faq.html) and €100,000 if you are [in the European Union](https://ec.europa.eu/info/business-economy-euro/banking-and-finance/financial-supervision-and-risk-management/managing-risks-banks-and-financial-institutions/deposit-guarantee-schemes_en). So its not advised to dump all your money into your bank account straight away. I would wait for T+2 settlement to clear then invest in value stocks, so you're money isn't tied to your broker, should they have issues. This brings me to the next section...
|
||||
|
||||
Immediate Aftermath
|
||||
|
||||
0:00
|
||||
|
||||
0:02
|
||||
|
||||
- Assemble a team of legal and financial advisers:
|
||||
|
||||
- Lawyer up - Hire a [tax attorney](https://www.moneycrashers.com/when-to-hire-a-tax-attorney/) to deal with any problems that may arise from all of this. Hire a family law or estate planning attorney that can arrange a Will for your family immediately.
|
||||
|
||||
- side note: do NOT sign anything, from your broker/bank/crayon dealer or anyone if you do not understand it. Make sure you have an attorney read anything you may or may not be asked to sign.
|
||||
|
||||
- Get an accountant - Get certified public accountant who helps wealthy families organize their finances and guide you through your finances.
|
||||
|
||||
- Hire a financial advisor - Make sure you hire a financial advisor that is sworn to act as a fiduciary (*acting in your best financial interests, not theirs*), preferably with experience managing significant wealth. Make sure you check their certifications and that they aren't trying to push you to buy some insurance policy. The requirements to be a FA aren't concrete so there are a lot of snake oil salesmen that really don't have your best interests at heart. Make sure how you ask how they profit from you being their client and make sure they aren't trying to make commissions. Also, look out for high fees. Minimum advisor fees based on AUM should not be over 1% unless they can justify it with amazing historical returns.
|
||||
|
||||
- Expect to vilified by MSM - In the case of a financial crisis, i can nearly guarantee that they will try to blame us rather than the hedgies and regulators who caused it. Pay no mind to mainstream media and stand your ground.
|
||||
|
||||
- Expect people to say you just got lucky, expect them to speak as though we are ones who caused this. They will lie, twist and corrupt the truth. Expect your friend who paper-handed a few months back and still think's GameStop is dying brick-and-mortar resent you. You don't need to justify yourself. All of our research has been documented, archived and literally shouted from the rooftops for months. As Michael brrry would say "*I warned, but no one listened*".
|
||||
|
||||
- They may also try and backtrack to a pro-GME narrative now that it's not financial in their interest to side with SHFs. Just remember: MSM is not your friend, these people are allows pushing the narrative that they are paid push. It's literally their business model.
|
||||
|
||||
- Do nothing with the money - this kind of piggy backs off the first point about assembling a team of advisors, but please don't just cash out and go crazy with the money. Sit and think about it for some time. Let reality settle in and decide how are you going to use this money to help yourself and the people around you. Lambos are great but they won't bring you happiness forever. Don't blow that money down the drain. Educate yourself on how wealthy people maintain their wealth.
|
||||
|
||||
Longer Term aftermath
|
||||
|
||||
- Expect turbulence in the economy - this wont be just contained to the world of GME. This is going to have a ripple affect across the world economy as the powers-that-be, who have been taking advantage of the system loops holes, finally pay their debt. Here is some essentials you should check out (in order) if you haven't already, this is 2008 ~~all over again~~ continued:
|
||||
|
||||
1. [Inside Job (Full movie)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T2IaJwkqgPk) - by [Charles Ferguson](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Charles_Ferguson_(filmmaker))
|
||||
|
||||
2. [The Bigger Short. How 2008 is repeating](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/o0scoy/the_bigger_short_how_2008_is_repeating_at_a_much/) - by [u/Criand](https://www.reddit.com/u/Criand/)
|
||||
|
||||
3. [A House of Cards](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nm83eb/a_house_of_cards_parts_i_ii_iii_in_pdf/) - by [u/atobitt](https://www.reddit.com/u/atobitt/)
|
||||
|
||||
4. [The EVERYTHING Short](https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/comments/mgucv2/the_everything_short/) - by [u/atobitt](https://www.reddit.com/u/atobitt/)
|
||||
|
||||
High/hyper Inflation - We need to talk about [inflation](https://www.fdic.gov/deposit/deposits/faq.html). In v1.0 of this guide I mentioned a possibility of inflation, but as more news has come out it's pretty much a guarantee. Also, I didn't give much recommendations on what to do about it. So, i learned a bit about inflation so you don't have to:
|
||||
|
||||
- The What?
|
||||
|
||||
- Since governments have moved away from the gold standard, countries have the power to create money out of thin air through [quantitative easing](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/q/quantitative-easing.asp).
|
||||
|
||||
- Inflation is the annual percentage rise in the cost of living. Okay so what does that really mean? Here is smooth brain explanation: If you have $1 in 2020, and inflation rises 10% in 2021, you still have your $1 but you only have the buying power of $0.90 relative to last year. This is why holding onto cash is not good in a high inflationary economy.
|
||||
|
||||
- The How?
|
||||
|
||||
- Everyone always says its from over-printing of money, but in reality this is just a symptom of a failing economy, and a byproduct of the citizens lack of confidence in the currency.
|
||||
|
||||
- In order to counter these rise in prices, the FED (or central bank) will raise interest rates, essentially reducing the amount of money in circulation.
|
||||
|
||||
- The chair of the Fed, JPOW himself, said interest rates won't be [raised until 2023](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/16/fed-holds-rates-steady-but-raises-inflation-expectations-sharply-and-makes-no-mention-of-taper.html). However, fear is arising in the stock market as many speculate we have high inflation because the massive amount of "free money" initiatives to help the country get back on its feet, but it's just not being seen due to COVID-19.
|
||||
|
||||
- I think it is also noteworthy to say there is a difference between high inflation and hyperinflation. Hyperinflation is a term to describe rapid, excessive, and out-of-control general price increases in an economy. While inflation is a measure of the pace of rising prices for goods and services, hyperinflation is rapidly rising inflation, typically measuring more than 50% per month.
|
||||
|
||||
- How to protect yourself?
|
||||
|
||||
- Well firstly I'd like to note assets to avoid during high inflation:
|
||||
|
||||
- [Fixed rate bonds](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/f/fixedrate-bond.asp)
|
||||
|
||||
- [Growth stocks](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/g/growthstock.asp)
|
||||
|
||||
- [Cash](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/cash.asp) (yes, that includes the money in your savings account)
|
||||
|
||||
- The best investments during high inflation:
|
||||
|
||||
- [Real estate/land](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/r/realestate.asp)
|
||||
|
||||
- [Commodities](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/commodity.asp) (Gold, oil etc.)
|
||||
|
||||
- [Boomer Value Stocks](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/v/valuestock.asp)
|
||||
|
||||
- How about crypt-0?
|
||||
|
||||
- I can't name certain coins here because of auto-mod, but you know of the big ones I'm talking about.
|
||||
|
||||
- It is assumed that anything with a limited supply will inevitably move with inflation. the loss in confidence people have in fiat currency is prevented with crypt-0-currency as it has an immutable finite supply.
|
||||
|
||||
- However, you also need to bear in mind the *utility* of the asset. Just because something has a limited supply does not mean it's valuable (*The 2021 shit-coin craze being evidence of this*)
|
||||
|
||||
- In a financial nuclear winter event, it may a case that some coins may become too expensive to mine due to rise in electricity prices, leading to a disinterest/disincentivization in holding the asset and thus reducing it's value.
|
||||
|
||||
- Be careful if you decide to hedge with these assets as they are yet to be stress-tested during a financial crisis, some might succeed and many will fail.
|
||||
|
||||
- side-note: One silver lining i learned about inflation is that the burden of any debt you may have will be softened as the nominal value of the debt stays the same even as the value of the currency decreases. What does this mean? if you owe money, lets say a mortgage or student loan, it is easier to pay of that debt as it is assumed you wages will increase, while the number of dollars you owe stays the same. (*not that you will have a job after the MOASS anyway ( ͡° ͜ʖ ͡°)* )
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/4xpmi7xxka871.jpg?width=1908&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=1b1e4adfcd66be4d4003cbee35d6d0796c96badf)
|
||||
|
||||
Taken during the 2011 Ocupy Wallstreet March (At National i
|
||||
|
||||
*If there is anything else you think should be in here let me know in the comments. This is just my opinion and not financial advice. I am just an ape who eats crayons for fun. This will probably be my last DD before valhalla (financially speaking), I'll finish by leaving you with this image (above ^). Remember what happened in 2008 and don't show any mercy. HOLD.*
|
||||
|
||||
- Socrates ( ͡° ͜ʖ ͡°)
|
||||
|
||||
🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀
|
||||
|
||||
TLDR: no tldr you lazy ape, go read it. Its important
|
||||
|
||||
_____________________________________________
|
||||
|
||||
- edits 1: Diamond hands section typo : "***aren't* *enough shares", not "are enough shares"*
|
||||
|
||||
*- edits 2: removed WardenElites exit strategy, added the gherkinit's exit strategy*
|
||||
|
||||
*- edits 3: added mods twitters in Reddit going down section*
|
@ -0,0 +1,232 @@
|
||||
The Sun Never Sets On Citadel -- Part 1
|
||||
=======================================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/swede_child_of_mine](https://www.reddit.com/user/swede_child_of_mine/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/o2xz48/the_sun_never_sets_on_citadel_part_1/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
[DD 👨🔬](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22DD%20%F0%9F%91%A8%E2%80%8D%F0%9F%94%AC%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||
[Hello Superstonk](https://i.redd.it/y39nj0kvo2671.gif)
|
||||
|
||||
Preface
|
||||
|
||||
I became bothered by a question a few months ago. The GME saga started with MAJOR fight in the financial landscape between Team Citadel vs. Team Other (Blackrock, Vanguard, etc.), and Superstonk is here now because of Team Other getting Ryan Cohen on the board at GME, then "retail" landed on the scene, now Apes, etc. But this ONE question always bothered me:
|
||||
|
||||
> What did Citadel do to piss everyone off? WHY would they want to give Citadel the most epic beat down in financial history?
|
||||
|
||||
So I spent some time looking into that because it *must* be good and...
|
||||
|
||||
*HO BOY, GET YOUR POPCORN, I'VE GOT SOME GOODS TO SHARE WITH YOU AND IT'S GONNA BE JUICY*
|
||||
|
||||
* * * * *
|
||||
|
||||
Note: this is a strategy post. [u/atobitt](https://www.reddit.com/u/atobitt/) and [u/criand](https://www.reddit.com/u/criand/) focus on macro topics about Citadel's structure in the overall market, but this series is going to be about financial industry strategy. I have a master's degree in business and specialize in strategy and operations. While I don't have direct experience in finance per se, I really enjoy finding the "hows" and "whys" behind what businesses do.
|
||||
|
||||
Also, I'll give shout outs to the Apes who did relevant DD before this. Parts of this are my own discovery, parts are building on the work of those who came before :) This is an overall picture.
|
||||
|
||||
Symbol indicators:
|
||||
|
||||
- [] - request for link to relevant DD ([r/Superstonk](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/) DD posts or legitimate sources)
|
||||
|
||||
* * * * *
|
||||
|
||||
1.0: Introduction
|
||||
|
||||
The Price of $GME is artificial. Prior posts ([1](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/mn0q9q/theory_all_the_pieces_pt_1_the_anatomy_of_the/), [2](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/ms9z0n/theory_all_the_pieces_pt_2_the_deep_end_of_the/)) have covered how Citadel and other players in the market have greedily, illegally conspired to change the price of stocks for their own profit. While Citadel's criminal price manipulation of GME represents a failed scheme to fabricate shares for profit, this was only a small corner of a much larger body of activity. *Citadel's overall activity shows a plan to monopolize markets worldwide and control securities transactions at the exchange level*.
|
||||
|
||||
Yep.
|
||||
|
||||
Buckle up :)
|
||||
|
||||
* * * * *
|
||||
|
||||
Key Term
|
||||
|
||||
Market Maker (or "MM") -- a special role in a stock exchanges around the world. An MM's primary role is to provide liquidity, or "to make sure there are shares available to buy if people want them" as well as "make sure there is a buyer if people want to sell." Exchanges need it: liquidity makes for easy buying and selling.
|
||||
|
||||
- A MM is the intermediary for almost any securities transaction. It is positioned between the exchange and the brokers/dealers/funds that do not have access to the exchange, or they use the MM to do the buying work for them, lol. Or the MM is positioned on the other side of a transaction, supplying the securities in demand.
|
||||
|
||||
- A MM is always in a position of risk. They are constantly in a place to be on the losing side of a transaction if they "guess" wrong.
|
||||
|
||||
- Note: Citadel has many branches, but it's two major branches are its hedge fund and its MM. I will be referring only to its MM activity.
|
||||
|
||||
* * * * *
|
||||
|
||||
1.1: Plus Ultra
|
||||
|
||||
Take a moment to marvel at how Citadel has installed themselves in [so many markets around the world](https://www.fi-desk.com/market-structure-meet-the-new-market-makers/). They are Market Makers and/or liquidity providers in nearly every major exchange on earth: (*Note: my undersrtanding of a liquidity provider is that it's a bit like a less-powerful MM*)
|
||||
|
||||
[Citadel Securities own splash page](https://i.redd.it/tolp2scxfw571.png)
|
||||
|
||||
- US/North America: NYSE, NASDAQ, CBOE (not even going to bother with links here, you know they're there), [Toronto](https://www.tsx.com/trading/toronto-stock-exchange/order-types-and-features/market-maker-program/market-makers-list?id=5)
|
||||
|
||||
- Europe: [London/Ireland](https://www.financemagnates.com/forex/brokers/citadels-technology-arm-posts-30-decline-in-2019-revenue/), Amsterdam[], Frankfurt[]
|
||||
|
||||
- Asia/Pacific: Hong Kong, [Singapore](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-citadel-singapore/citadel-securities-hedge-fund-citadel-to-open-new-office-in-singapore-idUSKBN25K08J), Sydney [], Shanghai []
|
||||
|
||||
- (Apologies on missing links, I've saved so many links through this whole drama that I can't find some of my sources anymore. And this is not the full list, this is only what I could put together for this post.)
|
||||
|
||||
Citadel is truly an intmidating company based on the position it occupies in markets worldwide.
|
||||
|
||||
1.2: E Pluribus Unum
|
||||
|
||||
So WHY has Citadel strived to achieve such a large footprint across the globe?
|
||||
|
||||
*Because there is a flaw in the markets across the world: it depends on Market Makers.*
|
||||
|
||||
- Exchanges are set up to have several Market Makers providing liquidity.
|
||||
|
||||
- So the Market Maker has responsibilities for supply and demand of a given security.
|
||||
|
||||
- It's an essential service so exchanges empower MMs with exclusive powers and responsibilities.
|
||||
|
||||
Take a look at the exclusive powers the NYSE gives its DMMs (like a "Super" Market Maker): [From the NYSE DMM page](https://i.redd.it/n16pu83yiw571.png)
|
||||
|
||||
- MMs have *Superpowers* and wield immense control over securities.
|
||||
|
||||
- Exchanges rely on incentives for winning bids (coupons) as a way of creating competition and fair prices at the exchange.
|
||||
|
||||
MMs are intended to be balanced by competing against each other
|
||||
|
||||
- ...so that the customers (brokers) can get the best value, and the Market Makers are financially rewarded for their service...
|
||||
|
||||
- ...but that means the MMs are competing for as many transactions as possible on the exchange. As much as their risk can allow.
|
||||
|
||||
So the better the MMs are at managing risk, the more control they have over the exchange (because they capture more of the transactions)
|
||||
|
||||
- And there are advantages for MMs who perform better and capture more volume -- they can leverage the volume to achieve better prices and capture even *more* transactions.
|
||||
|
||||
- You've probably seen this chart, but it shows the size that MMs have become: [Citadel is almost as big as the CBOE -- the main options exchange for the US](https://i.redd.it/idkn9cchpn571.png)
|
||||
|
||||
- (Citadel, Virtu, and G1 are all MMs.)
|
||||
|
||||
- The important part about that graphic is the NYSE, NASDAQ, and CBOE volumes *include the transactions with Citadel and Virtu*.
|
||||
|
||||
The MMs are becoming (or already are) bigger than the exchanges themselves. And the exchanges depend on them.
|
||||
|
||||
- Furthermore, the exchange is limited -- to a certain location, structure, set of regluations, list of securities, etc. Almost all exchanges are for profit.
|
||||
|
||||
- But if the exchange provides no security that can't be bought on another exchange, then the exchange needs to compete on best price - or else it's revenue goes away.
|
||||
|
||||
- And exactly *who* at the exchange offers the best price?
|
||||
|
||||
- But a Market Maker is free to engage in multiple exchanges. So if a financial product is available in one exchange, but not another, and an MM is in both exchanges, then the Market Maker can offer it because it a separate entity (if it legally can).
|
||||
|
||||
- And the Market Maker is free offer their best price at multiple exchanges, or even directly.
|
||||
|
||||
What advantage does the exchange itself have? They can't provide *anything* that the Market Makers themselves can't/don't provide.
|
||||
|
||||
- *As an analogy, if you are used to shopping for separate items across several stores -- food at the farmers market, clothes at the mall, etc. -- a company like Amazon or WalMart will have an advantage by selling the same items for a comparable price in one convenient place.*
|
||||
|
||||
It's "malls" vs. "Target/WalMart/Amazon/Costco" all over. We all know who won that one.
|
||||
|
||||
1.3: Man o' War
|
||||
|
||||
I mentioned "volume" earlier -- that is going to be key here.
|
||||
|
||||
- Market Making is already very risky, but the size of the established players make it prohibitive for new entrants. A new MM would need significant advantages to compete against Citadel, Susquehanna, and Virtu who will have superior positioning, expertise, technology, market understanding, funding, risk tolerance...
|
||||
|
||||
> "The way to think about Citadel is as the Amazon of trading," says Spencer Mindlin, a capital markets technology analyst at Aite Group. In an industry that relies heavily on technology, Citadel has forged ahead by playing "a game of scale. You reach a point where it's impossible for others to compete," he says. [emphasis mine] - [Quartz](https://qz.com/1969532/how-ken-griffins-citadel-transformed-financial-markets/)
|
||||
|
||||
Backstory:
|
||||
|
||||
- In the early 2010's Ken tired to make Citadel an investment bank and failed (lol)....
|
||||
|
||||
- ...but it ended up being one of those "lemons to lemonade" things for him. Because Ken realized that other MMs were *banks*, which were a major disadvantage. You see, *Banks* were encumbered with "regulations", "capital requirements" and stupid "investors". But Market Makers didn't need a bank, so they didn't need to have those pesky constraints.
|
||||
|
||||
- Then Ken stopped trying to be a bank. Which meant he could capture the MM market.
|
||||
|
||||
- Citadel went on to buy out competing Market Maker assets from [Citi](https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2016/05/16/citadel-securities-buys-citi-market-making-assets/84437638/), [Goldman Sachs/IMC](https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/citadel-securities-reaches-preliminary-agreement-to-acquire-dmm-unit-from-imc-301149075.html), and [KCG](https://www.tradersmagazine.com/departments/brokerage/citadel-purchases-kcg-dmm-business-becomes-1-on-nyse/) to grow his market share and reduce compeition.
|
||||
|
||||
- And now, the Market Maker field is NOT competitive. The number of DMMs in NYSE has decreased over the years.
|
||||
|
||||
- Citadel has heavily "leveled-up" and is bar none THE biggest player on the field.
|
||||
|
||||
This is why Citadel is in so many exchanges. Successful practices can be copied from one exchange to the next, with market advantages and rewards that scale. Why shouldn't Citadel be a MM in every major exchange on earth?
|
||||
|
||||
- But you realize what this means, right?
|
||||
|
||||
*The exchanges have become commodities.* They are necessary for fulfilling their role as a securites selling venue, but have no unique value to themselves.
|
||||
|
||||
> "We already have 16 stock exchanges, over 30 ATSs and handful of market maker SDPs, do we really need the banks to further fragment liquidity?" [emphasis mine] - [Themis Trading](https://blog.themistrading.com/2020/12/14434/)
|
||||
|
||||
The TRUE value to the market is a firm that spans multiple exchanges and offers the breadth of securities available at competitive prices.
|
||||
|
||||
1.4: The Commonwealth
|
||||
|
||||
*But, but -- what about compeition? What about Virtu, G1, and the MMs in other countries? I thought you said this was a cOmPEtITivE field.*
|
||||
|
||||
It's true, Virtu & G1 do "compete" against Citadel. But they have an... "interesting" relationship which prompts some theories and requires further investigation.
|
||||
|
||||
- First, Citadel needs to maintain the appearance of a free market to avoid antitrust lawsuits. They also need other Market Makers to offload the transactions that they are unwilling to take. A duopoloy or even triopoly is fine as long as they control the market.
|
||||
|
||||
- Second, from Virtu's perspective (*they're the largest competitor so I'll use them here*), it doesn't make sense to go head-to-head directly with Citadel on transactions -- Citadel has better positioning and a technological edge.
|
||||
|
||||
- And directly competing with a superior opponent would be expensive for Virtu. However, they would stand to profit from joining with Citadel if they took the same positions as them.
|
||||
|
||||
- And wouldn't you know it, Apes have discovered that Virtu and Citadel are doing the *exact same things* across many tickers. Here are 2 famous ones: [MAX-D](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nyxs1f/learn_from_the_past_when_they_didnt_care_to_hide/), [GME](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nr6urb/i_look_up_top_brokers_for_gme_year_to_date_and/) [Any more Apes want to do asset comparison between Citadel & Virtu? CALLING SUPERSTONKS MOST QUANTED] (s/o to [u/BadassTrader](https://www.reddit.com/u/BadassTrader/), [u/JustBeingPunny](https://www.reddit.com/u/JustBeingPunny/), [u/Sti8man7](https://www.reddit.com/u/Sti8man7/))
|
||||
|
||||
- That said, Virtu could still compete *indirectly* - they would need to find a niche where they could gain an advantage and separate themselves from Citadel...
|
||||
|
||||
- ...and oh look Virtu seems [very focused on client experience](https://s21.q4cdn.com/422114427/files/doc_presentations/2020/09/Virtu-Financial-Presentation-Sept-2020-Draft-v3.pdf), where Citadel is focused on product and market position.
|
||||
|
||||
So Virtu is disincentivized to directly compete against Citadel, and is incentivized to coordinate with and complement Citadel.
|
||||
|
||||
Monopoly much?
|
||||
|
||||
1.5: The Crown Jewel
|
||||
|
||||
If you STILL believe that being a Market Maker IS competitive and that exchanges are NOT commoditized, and that Virtu and Citadel are taking the same positions for non-collusive reasons ("*Exchanges are the pumping heart of a free economy! Of course EXCHANGES have control and NOT the Market Makers, the Market Makers are just making the plays they see are winners*"), and you need even more convincing... I have bad news.
|
||||
|
||||
About 9 months ago the MEMX exchange opened.
|
||||
|
||||
*Why is that a big deal? Who opened the exchange?* [*Let's check the MEMX website...*](https://memx.com/)
|
||||
|
||||
- [Oh.](https://i.redd.it/ujeiloi5dw571.png)
|
||||
|
||||
- Citadel and Virtu (and some other players you might recognize) *OPENED THEIR OWN EXCHANGE.*
|
||||
|
||||
- [Yeah.](https://i.redd.it/0kxh46xwcw571.jpg)
|
||||
|
||||
"*But, but -- they wouldn't open their own exchange to profit at the expense of the market, would they?*"
|
||||
|
||||
- [*On the MEMX own splash page*](https://i.redd.it/gff2fr1edw571.png)
|
||||
|
||||
- "*MEMX will represent the interests of its founders*" - MEMX.com
|
||||
|
||||
- So, founders first, everybody else after. FROM. THEIR. OWN. FUCKING. SPLASH. PAGE.
|
||||
|
||||
"*But, but -- maybe it's just a small side thing and it's not really going anywhere?*"
|
||||
|
||||
- [Right. Yeah. Sure.](https://i.redd.it/owqyk8kxdw571.png)
|
||||
|
||||
"*But, but -- wouldn't that piss off the other exchanges? They would want to attack the MEMX founders in some way, right?*"
|
||||
|
||||
- [Yup.](https://i.redd.it/hknpksgdew571.png)
|
||||
|
||||
Exchanges have become so commoditized and Market Makers have such an entrenched advantage that the dominant Market Makers have opened their own exchange, MEMX, whose primary purpose is to serve their interests at the expense of other exchanges.
|
||||
|
||||
"Free market."
|
||||
|
||||
TL;DR
|
||||
|
||||
Citadel is/was moving to monopolize securities transactions at the exchange level.
|
||||
|
||||
- Market Makers have the most control over transactions at exchanges.
|
||||
|
||||
- Citadel is the largest Market Maker across exchanges worldwide (*can't find the sauce []*).
|
||||
|
||||
- Citadel has more power than the exchanges do, offering more products, more ways to purchase them, in more venues than the exchanges.
|
||||
|
||||
- Citadel has even started its own exchange in September 2020, which is growing rapidly.
|
||||
|
||||
- MM Competition is deterred from directly competing with Citadel - they have too much influence, and competitors are incentivized to coordinate with Citadel, not compete.
|
||||
|
||||
- The number of MMs have decreased in major exchanges while Citadel's market share is growing.
|
||||
|
||||
Structurally speaking, Citadel is in a position to directly control the price of many securities and transactions at the exchange level.
|
||||
|
||||
And that's not even all of it. Part 2 coming soon...
|
@ -0,0 +1,449 @@
|
||||
The Sun Never Sets on Citadel -- Part 2
|
||||
=======================================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/swede_child_of_mine](https://www.reddit.com/user/swede_child_of_mine/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/od4bb1/the_sun_never_sets_on_citadel_part_2/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
[DD 👨🔬](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22DD%20%F0%9F%91%A8%E2%80%8D%F0%9F%94%AC%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||
[Part 1](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/o2xz48/the_sun_never_sets_on_citadel_part_1/)
|
||||
|
||||
Apes, I'm stunned. I've rewritten this post several times because of what I've discovered. I haven't seen it anywhere else on Superstonk.
|
||||
|
||||
All of this is intertwined. I won't be able to get to all of the pieces of Citadel in this part so this DD will continue... and build... into Part 3.
|
||||
|
||||
This is a fucking ride.
|
||||
|
||||
* * * * *
|
||||
|
||||
Preface, part 1: Kudos
|
||||
|
||||
First I'd like to follow up on some key critiques from [Part 1](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/o2xz48/the_sun_never_sets_on_citadel_part_1/) and give kudos:.
|
||||
|
||||
- EU MMs -- MAJOR kudos to [u/NoughtyNought](https://www.reddit.com/u/NoughtyNought/) who did digging on finding [the list of EU MMs](https://www.esma.europa.eu/sites/default/files/library/list_of_market_makers_and_primary_dealers.pdf).
|
||||
|
||||
- DE markets -- MAJOR kudos to [u/LNhamburg](https://www.reddit.com/u/LNhamburg/) who has been looking into European markets since February and even followed up on my post with an [awesome post of their own](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/o3c7ar/a_european_footprint_after_reading_the_sun_never/).
|
||||
|
||||
But first, I need to apologize. I erroneously said Citadel was an MM across the EU in Part 1. I found conflicting sources, and Citadel *is* an MM in Ireland, but I should have clarified. I'll explain more on "how" and "why" I missed this later, but props to these Apes above who did their Due Due Diligience, I am in your debt. (*"To err is human..."*)
|
||||
|
||||
- Several users also pointed out: MEMX lists several "friendly" institutions, including BlackRock and Fidelity, as founders, not just Citadel and Virtu.
|
||||
|
||||
- This is true! Kudos to the several users who broght this up: [u/mattlukinhapilydrunk](https://www.reddit.com/u/mattlukinhapilydrunk/), [u/Robin_Squeeze](https://www.reddit.com/u/Robin_Squeeze/)
|
||||
|
||||
So what should we make of Citadel being at MEMX? *Does Citadel really control MEMX -- or even monopolize the market -- if Blackrock, Virtu, and Fidelity are there too?*
|
||||
|
||||
* * * * *
|
||||
|
||||
2.0: Introduction
|
||||
|
||||
The price of $GME is artificial. Prior posts have shown how $GME is being illegally manipulated by key players to the financial system, namely Citadel. These companies abuse their legitimate privileges to profit themselves at the expense of the market and investors. But it goes much deeper: Citadel is now positioned to do more than just monopolize securities transactions. Citadel is positioned to BE the market for securities transactions.
|
||||
|
||||
Wait, what?
|
||||
|
||||
Buckle up.
|
||||
|
||||
* * * * *
|
||||
|
||||
2.1: KING, I
|
||||
|
||||
Citadel's influence on the market is all due to one quality: Volume.
|
||||
|
||||
Volume is king.
|
||||
|
||||
- There is no way to understate it. Remember [this chart?](https://i.redd.it/idkn9cchpn571.png) Citadel and Virtu's combined volume being larger than ANY exchange is only the *beginning*, it's our *starting point*.
|
||||
|
||||
Do you want to know why it's taking so long to MOASS?
|
||||
|
||||
- Look at this [tweet estimating the fees the MMs make off of volume.](https://i.redd.it/0ruptccy0u871.png) - [sauce](https://twitter.com/EricBalchunas/status/1354775322445701128)
|
||||
|
||||
- MMs made an estimated $350M+ in four days. January 27 (the "sneeze") [volume was 24.8 billion equities traded](https://www.marketsmedia.com/us-equity-trading-volume-reaches-record/) for a single day.
|
||||
|
||||
- (we now know the MMs also took the full income of the shares they sold since they were selling pledged shares and never delivered)
|
||||
|
||||
- This illustrates how the MMs generate revenue off of any volume. They do this with nearly any security or transaction they make a market for.
|
||||
|
||||
*So the same activities that empower Apes to create the MOASS also provide the MMs with more resources to prolong the arrival of MOASS.*
|
||||
|
||||
What a fuckin' paradox.
|
||||
|
||||
* * * * *
|
||||
|
||||
2.2: Kneel before the crown
|
||||
|
||||
Volume is king. Once a firm hits a critical mass of transactions, it become impossible NOT to deal with that firm. For example:
|
||||
|
||||
Exchanges
|
||||
|
||||
- The NYSE & Nasdaq view Citadel/MEMX as a threat. Look at this article posted on the Nasdaq website [regarding MEMX](https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/the-answer-to-memx-2020-07-06):
|
||||
|
||||
> "MEMX will provide market makers with the ability to bypass the exchanges entirely." (*lol, so pissy*)
|
||||
|
||||
*(credit to *[u/Fantasybroke](https://www.reddit.com/u/Fantasybroke/)* for their *[*awesome comment*](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/o2xz48/the_sun_never_sets_on_citadel_part_1/h2936st/)*)*
|
||||
|
||||
- As much as these exchanges might be "frenemies" with Citadel, they still need to function as businesses.
|
||||
|
||||
- This pandemic posed a major issue for the NYSE: *how could they do IPOs* -- a critical function for exchanges -- *when all traders were remote?*
|
||||
|
||||
- They relied on Citadel. [Nine times](https://www.businessinsider.com/how-citadel-securities-dmms-are-handling-ipos-remotely-2020-5).
|
||||
|
||||
- There was *no other firm* that had the capability to execute. Only Citadel.
|
||||
|
||||
Brokers
|
||||
|
||||
- Awhile back there was a post about how a broker sent notice to clients saying in effect that they wouldn't know how to source their transactions in the event of Citadel defaulting. Users should expect delays in transactions if that happened.
|
||||
|
||||
- (*eToro? WeBull? Schwab? TDA?* *Superstonk I need the source, help![]*)
|
||||
|
||||
- If confirmed, this implies major brokerages are becoming or already are reliant on Citadel for basic, essential functions.
|
||||
|
||||
[WHAT. THE. FUCK.](https://www.reactiongifs.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/10/tom-delonge-wtf1.gif)
|
||||
|
||||
Let me it say again another way: we are at a point where MAJOR BROKERAGES AND EVEN EXCHANGES DO NOT KNOW HOW TO FUNCTION WITHOUT CITADEL.
|
||||
|
||||
But it's bigger than that -- it's not just key players in the market that are reliant on Citadel.
|
||||
|
||||
But first.
|
||||
|
||||
* * * * *
|
||||
|
||||
2.3: The Four Corners
|
||||
|
||||
> *We... manufacture money.*\
|
||||
> *-- Ken Griffin*
|
||||
|
||||
That Ken Griffin quote stood out to me, I have a background in operations with experience in manufacturing & logistics. "Manufacture" implies certainty of output, given the correct inputs. Looking at Citadel's actions in the context of manufacturing - supply and demand -- we can reverse engineer the strategy. Understand how we got here. Let's go. (*This is important groundwork, but if you need to skip you can jump to "2.4: Corner 3: Buyer"*)
|
||||
|
||||
Overview
|
||||
|
||||
You can think of the financial industry as one that manufactures "transactions", in the same way that the automotive industry manufactures "vehicles" of all varieties.
|
||||
|
||||
To manufacture a transaction requires a buyer, a seller, a product, and is produced in a venue (a.k.a. a "Transaction factory").
|
||||
|
||||
- The national "supply" comes from the collection of the different "factories": exchanges, ATS's (Dark Pools), SDP's (single-company terminals), etc. Each of the venues produces a slice of the overall Transactions pie chart.
|
||||
|
||||
- Supply of "raw materials" (lol) - buyers and sellers with products - flow into the various factories. Exchanges have been the primary "Transaction factories" for centuries. NYSE and Nasdaq still produce a large portion of US transactions every year.
|
||||
|
||||
- These exchanges employ Market Makers as a permanent stand-in buyer, seller, or provider of products at the exchanges -- whatever is needed. Exchanges charter MMs to provide the missing pieces to complete the transactions, and provide the MMs with special abilities to do so. Because exchanges benefit from having MMs.
|
||||
|
||||
So...
|
||||
|
||||
if you were a Market Maker, and you already provide the raw materials for buyer, seller, and product pieces of "production," what would you want to do next if you wanted to grow?
|
||||
|
||||
You would want a venue. Then you could manufacture transactions independently.
|
||||
|
||||
So guess what Citadel wants to do?
|
||||
|
||||
But -- is Citadel is ready? Do they really have enough Products, Sellers, and Buyers to supply a "factory" of their own?
|
||||
|
||||
* * * * *
|
||||
|
||||
2.2: Corner 1: PRODUCT
|
||||
|
||||
Product is about range. Range of available products is CRITICAL feature demanded by clients, as well as the necessary volume.
|
||||
|
||||
Storytime:
|
||||
|
||||
- A few months back a reddit user commented about their experience working at a financial firm (*for the love of everything I can't find the comment now -- Superstonk help again!?[]*). I don't remember the username, probably something like "stocksniffer42" or whatevs, lol. Let's call him "Greg."
|
||||
|
||||
- Greg would occasionally need to make securities transactions at a nearby terminal, a couple times a week. Price wasn't really important to Greg.
|
||||
|
||||
- But what WAS significant was availability. Greg had providers he preferred because they had what he needed. When they didn't it was super inconvenient for him because THEN Greg would have to search through enough providers to find what he needed. The more "availability" that a certain provider offered, the more likely Greg used them.
|
||||
|
||||
- This is pretty much the Amazon/WalMart/Target strategy. You're more likely to buy from them since they have everything. Even if it's not the lowest price.
|
||||
|
||||
Exchanges have a limited offering -- CBOE doesn't offer the same products as NYSE and vice-versa.
|
||||
|
||||
Huh, look at that. Citadel is a MM for multiple exchanges - CBOE, NYSE, and NASDAQ. Looks like Citadel can offer options, securities, bonds, [swaps](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-09-01/ken-griffin-gets-redemption-in-swaps-market-once-ruled-by-banks), and pretty much [any product under the sun](https://www.citadel.com/disclosures/).
|
||||
|
||||
Seems like they have "Product" pretty well sorted. What about the other pieces?
|
||||
|
||||
* * * * *
|
||||
|
||||
2.3: Corner 2: SELLER
|
||||
|
||||
Generally, Sellers are interested in only PRICE. However, price is the LEAST important aspect of all demand, believe it or not. (*Note: we'll assume some interests overlap between buyer and seller because the same party can alternate roles.*)
|
||||
|
||||
Price is supported market-wide by a sense of trust and pre-arranged transaction costs:
|
||||
|
||||
- Price is set nationally by the NBBO -- [the National Best Bid and Offer](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/n/nbbo.asp). A national price range that establishes trust with buyers and sellers. Everybody abides by it. [Nobody will be scamming anyone on price in the NBBO](https://www.law.berkeley.edu/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/bartlett_mccrary_latency2017.pdf). Because...
|
||||
|
||||
- Venues (like exchanges) don't make money off price, they make it from member fees, or sub-penny fees.
|
||||
|
||||
- Product prices can vary quickly, so it's somewhat relative. Precision pricing isn't a concern for the vast majority of non-HFT trades.
|
||||
|
||||
- Buyers will proceed if the price is within their acceptable range and doesn't have an undue markup.
|
||||
|
||||
- Market Makers make very little money on individual transactions, usually.
|
||||
|
||||
- (We individual retail investors may want maximum profit through a single transaction (**cough** DIAMOND HANDS **cough**)... but not Market Makers.)
|
||||
|
||||
However, institutional sellers have an additional price agenda:
|
||||
|
||||
- Volume sellers don't want to flood the market of their given security, dropping the price right as they sell. They want to offload the asset in a price-friendly way.
|
||||
|
||||
- Strategic sellers don't want the marketplace to know that they changed a position, they want to keep their transactions private.
|
||||
|
||||
These sellers would want a venue that won't affect the public price and remains private.
|
||||
|
||||
So price agenda is relative - it's up to each party to decide their interests. At the point of transaction price is either pre-negotiated (for volume sells), or else *precise* price does not matter for non-HFT transactions. (*Would you sell $XYZ at $220.05 but NOT at $220.02?*)
|
||||
|
||||
Strategically, if Citadel wanted to increase its volume of sellers it would need:
|
||||
|
||||
- the ability to absorb large volumes of securities (i.e. buy a lot at a competitive price)
|
||||
|
||||
- source a large volume of buyers to match with the sellers.
|
||||
|
||||
- have a private transaction venue to attract sellers of any volume
|
||||
|
||||
Interesting. Seems like Citadel is probably already doing a lot of this activity through the exchanges or Dark Pools they might be connected to.
|
||||
|
||||
How about the last piece?
|
||||
|
||||
* * * * *
|
||||
|
||||
2.4: Corner 3: BUYER
|
||||
|
||||
A Buyer is interested in one thing: EASE OF ACCESS.
|
||||
|
||||
*Like Greg, a buyer wants easy access to a range of securities, acceptable prices, and easy access to to sellers.*
|
||||
|
||||
Citadel can be all of these and/or provide them, but, wait --
|
||||
|
||||
How exactly can clients BUY from Citadel?
|
||||
|
||||
*Maybe clients can buy from Citadel on the public exchanges?*
|
||||
|
||||
- True, but Citadel could still lose the bid. Or pay additional fees, or lose on the bid-ask spread.
|
||||
|
||||
- Also, that's no good for Citadel. It means the clients are coming to the exchanges, which are the venues Citadel is trying to compete against.
|
||||
|
||||
*Perhaps their target clients are institutions that want the kind of lower-cost, lower-visibility option that a Dark Pool offers? Can clients buy from Citadel on one of the many Dark Pools/ATSs?*
|
||||
|
||||
- Yes, but the Dark Pools can be "pinged" by HFTs to reveal positions and interest. Someone else could front run the transaction.
|
||||
|
||||
- And again, the venue would be making the transaction, not Citadel.
|
||||
|
||||
*So why doesn't Citadel do their own Dark Pool then? Why should the US's largest Market Maker pay to use someone else's Dark Pool?*
|
||||
|
||||
- Okay, let's check if Citadel Has their own ATS. Hmmm... that's weird. There is [no ATS registered to Citadel](https://www.sec.gov/files/data/alternative-trading-system-ats-list/atslist053121.pdf). *Anywhere.*
|
||||
|
||||
- (Dark Pools have to [register through form ATS-N](https://www.sec.gov/divisions/marketreg/form-ats-n-filings.htm) due to SEC regulation ATS)
|
||||
|
||||
*So if Citadel has to compete for buyers in exchanges, and they pay to go through Dark Pools, then why, or how, do clients buy from Citadel? How does Citadel get its volume?*
|
||||
|
||||
Easy.
|
||||
|
||||
Citadel Connect.
|
||||
|
||||
*Wait, what?*
|
||||
|
||||
[Citadel Connect](https://i.redd.it/v35705zpru871.png).
|
||||
|
||||
That's right. You've been in these subs for 6 months and you haven't heard of Citadel Connect? Citadel's "not a Dark Pool" Dark Pool? (That's not by coincidence, btw).
|
||||
|
||||
[*MOTHERFUCKER WHAT?!?!*](https://i.redd.it/wy0fpnnb0u871.jpg)
|
||||
|
||||
Citadel Connect is an SDP, not an ATS. The difference is the reporting requirements. SDPs do not have to make the disclosures that either the exchanges or even the ATSs (a.k.a. Dark Pools) have to.
|
||||
|
||||
- (FINRA once took a look at [regulating SDPs](https://www.sec.gov/rules/sro/finra/2019/34-86315.pdf), but decided [not to](https://i.redd.it/328lgq1s1v871.png)).
|
||||
|
||||
[Yep.](https://media0.giphy.com/media/UvtKiyeWYEhRC/giphy.gif?cid=ecf05e47d9juouou9jrbshblwc2adl6q17tv6g424rp2kvoi&rid=giphy.gif&ct=g)
|
||||
|
||||
There is a laughable amount of search results for Citadel Connect on Google. There are no images of it that I could find. I believe it is an API-type feed that plugs into existing order systems. But I couldn't tell you based on searches. I found no documentation -- just allusions to its features.
|
||||
|
||||
- So when the SEC regulated ATSs in 2015, Ken shut down Citadel's actual Dark Pool, [Apogee](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-citadel-darkpool/citadel-securities-to-close-apogee-dark-pool-sources-idUSKBN0MN22Q20150327), in order to avoid visibility altogether. Citadel started routing transactions [through Citadel Connect](https://www.reuters.com/article/citadel-darkpool/citadel-sees-volume-surge-in-its-citadel-connect-dark-pool-idUSL2N0LQ17H20140221) instead.
|
||||
|
||||
- Citadel Connect doesn't meet the definition of an ATS. There is no competition -- no bids, no intent of interest, no disclosures -- nothing. It is one order type from one company.
|
||||
|
||||
- Order type is IOC (Immediate Or Cancel), and the output is binary -- a type of "yes" or "no". You deal only with Citadel.
|
||||
|
||||
- *"Citadel, here's 420 shares of $DOOK, will you buy at $6.969?"*
|
||||
|
||||
- "YES" --> *transaction complete*, or
|
||||
|
||||
- "NO" --> *end transaction*
|
||||
|
||||
- Since it's private, the only information that comes out of the transaction is what's reported to the tape, 10 seconds after the transaction.
|
||||
|
||||
*Okay, so you're just buying from a single company, that doesn't seem like a big deal. And aren't there are *[*a lot of other SDPs*](https://blog.themistrading.com/2020/12/14434/)*? So why is this a problem?*
|
||||
|
||||
By itself? Not a problem. Buyers and sellers love it, I'm sure.
|
||||
|
||||
However...
|
||||
|
||||
* * * * *
|
||||
|
||||
2.5: KING, II
|
||||
|
||||
Volume is king.
|
||||
|
||||
Citadel does such volume that it is considered a "securities wholesaler", one of only a few in the US. Like Costco, or any wholesale business, it deals in bulk. But Citadel can deal in small transactions, too.
|
||||
|
||||
Citadel has a massive network of sales connections through its Market Maker presence at US exchanges. It capitalizes on the relationships through Citadel Connect, turning them into clients.
|
||||
|
||||
- Citadel has a market advantage with its volume of clients.
|
||||
|
||||
Citadel Connect integrates into existing ATSs and client dashboards (here's an example from [BNP Paribas](https://i.redd.it/dojfd7lyru871.png) - [sauce](https://globalmarkets.cib.bnpparibas/app/uploads/sites/4/2021/05/execution-venues-us-version.pdf)). Like Greg's testimonial, I suspect it's easy for just about any financial firm to deal directly with Citadel.
|
||||
|
||||
- Citadel has an ease of access advantage.
|
||||
|
||||
And given Citadel's wide range of products it conducts business in and is a Market Maker for, I'm sure Citadel is an attractive option for just about anyone in the financial industry who wants to buy or sell a financial product of any kind. Competitive prices. Whether in bulk or in small batches. Whether privately or publicly. However frequently, or whatever the dollar amount might be.
|
||||
|
||||
- Citadel has a privacy and pricing advantage.
|
||||
|
||||
Like Amazon, WalMart, and Target, Citadel is offering *everything*: a wide range of products, nearly any volume, effortless ease of access, the additional powers of an MM, and a nearly ubiquitous presence. Doing so lets Citadel capture a massive amount of market share. So much that it is prohibitive to other players, relegating them to smaller niche offerings and/or a smaller footprint.
|
||||
|
||||
- Citadel has market presence advantage.
|
||||
|
||||
* * * * *
|
||||
|
||||
2.6: The Final Piece: VENUE
|
||||
|
||||
So guess what Citadel wants to do?
|
||||
|
||||
But... do you get it? Have you figured it out?
|
||||
|
||||
Citadel doesn't need to get a venue.
|
||||
|
||||
Citadel *IS* the venue.
|
||||
|
||||
Citadel is [internalizing](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/i/internalization.asp) a substantial volume of transactions from the marketplace. It's conducting the transactions inside its own walls, acting AS the venue in itself.
|
||||
|
||||
Said another way, Citadel is "black box"-ing the transaction market, and it's doing so at a [massive volume](https://i.redd.it/drdcsznn0u871.png) - [sauce](https://www.rblt.com/market-reports/let-there-be-light-us-edition-24).
|
||||
|
||||
- *Okay, so it sounds like Citadel is just buying and selling from multiple parties, and making a profit off the spread. Every firm does that, though, right? It's just arbitrage, it doesn't make them an exchange.*
|
||||
|
||||
Citadel is offering the features of an exchange, or even benefiting from existing exchanges (i.e. the NBBO, MM powers across multiple exchanges) without any of the regulations of an exchange. It can offer more products, more easily, more quickly, more cheaply, and more privately than an exchange could. It's so non-competitive that IEX - yeah, the exchange - [wrote about the decline of exchanges](https://medium.com/boxes-and-lines/the-rising-tide-of-broker-costs-and-the-shrinking-pool-of-competitors-40d4d389e59a):
|
||||
|
||||
> "...trends of the past decade have seen a sharp increase in costs to trade on exchanges, a sharp decrease in the number of exchange broker members, and a steady erosion in the ability of smaller or new firms to compete for business."
|
||||
|
||||
It is doing this at the same time that brokers and even exchanges are relying on Citadel more and more. And, by the way - *why are they so reliant on Citadel in the first place?* Glad you asked.
|
||||
|
||||
Volume is limited. So the more volume Citadel takes...
|
||||
|
||||
- ...the less volume there is for the competition.
|
||||
|
||||
- ...the more reliant the other players are on Citadel for buying and selling.
|
||||
|
||||
- ...the less profit for competitors, so the more expensive their services have to be.
|
||||
|
||||
This "rich-get-richer" advantage is known as a "virtuous cycle" (hah -- "virtuous") -- one of the most sought-after business advantages.
|
||||
|
||||
Citadel is capturing and internalizing more and more transactions, driving up costs for exchanges and making the competition smaller and smaller while also making them more dependent on Citadel to conduct critical business operations.
|
||||
|
||||
"Free market"
|
||||
|
||||
* * * * *
|
||||
|
||||
2.7: "...to forgive, devine."
|
||||
|
||||
Apes, I told you I would follow up on "how" and "why" I missed on Citadel not being an MM across the EU.
|
||||
|
||||
The EU marketplace is structured differently than the American markets, with different rules and roles. I knew Citadel had a massive presence in the EU, I just missed the role. I think you can put together [why](https://i.redd.it/axa0gpvap1971.png).
|
||||
|
||||
* * * * *
|
||||
|
||||
2.8: TL;DR
|
||||
|
||||
Citadel is moving beyond monopolizing the MM role, it has captured a massive portion of all securities transactions and is moving them off-exchange. For an undisclosed portion of transactions, Citadel IS the market.
|
||||
|
||||
- Citadel positioned itself to provide every piece required to provide transactions -- buyers, sellers, product -- at an unrivaled scale, allowing it to be a wholesale internalizer.
|
||||
|
||||
- ("Internalizing" here is shorthand for "one company acting as a private exchange without exchange regulations or oversight").
|
||||
|
||||
- Citadel does this through an SDP called "Citadel Connect," which is a type of Dark Pool that doesn't require disclosure.
|
||||
|
||||
- Citadel's overall volume and market position are prohibitive to new competition and also drives away all but the largest competitors.
|
||||
|
||||
- Even exchanges are losing volume to Citadel's OTC market share, threatening the exchanges' position in the market.
|
||||
|
||||
Citadel is capturing more and more of the transactions market, experiencing less competition, as it enjoys more and more entrenched advantages, at the expense of the market and the investor.
|
||||
|
||||
This is the groundwork that will set us up for Part 3.
|
||||
|
||||
* * * * *
|
||||
|
||||
Part 3 coming soon...
|
||||
|
||||
* * * * *
|
||||
|
||||
EPILOGUE: Dieu et mon droit
|
||||
|
||||
"But it's bigger than that -- it's not just key players in the market that are reliant on Citadel."
|
||||
|
||||
Including this after the TL;DR for all to see. This is why I was delayed.
|
||||
|
||||
This is a 2 minute video from Citadel's own page. [Watch it.](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eVfxEBE-nI4&t=158s) It blew me away when I saw it, and I'll explain why below. Transcription mine (streamlined version):
|
||||
|
||||
> *Mary Erodes:* That's a really important shift. The groups that used to make markets, i.e. step in when no one else was there, were the banks. They have shrunk by law. So when we need liquidity in the future... [points at Ken] He's has a fiduciary obligation to care only about his shareholders and his investors. He doesn't have an obligation to step in to make markets for the sake of making markets. It will be a very different playbook when we go through the liquidity crunch that eventually will come.
|
||||
|
||||
> *Ken Griffin:* I think this is very interesting, "what is the role [Citadel] will play in the next great market correction?" ...[In financial crashes] no one buys the asset that represents the falling knife. The role of the market maker is to maximize the availability of liquidity to all participants. Because the perception and reality that you create liquidity helps to calm the markets. We worked with NYSE and the SEC to re-architect trading protocols... The role of large investment banks has been supplanted by not only Citadel Securities, but by a whole ecosystem of statistical arbitrage that will absorb risk that comes to market quickly.
|
||||
|
||||
[emphasis mine]
|
||||
|
||||
Let me summarize. Mary and Ken commented that:
|
||||
|
||||
- The old way of stabilizing financial crises was through multiple banks negotiating a solution to stabilize the economy.
|
||||
|
||||
- Banks can no longer do this due to regulations and their position in the market.
|
||||
|
||||
- Citadel (Ken) sees a Market Maker's role as a stabilizer, to make sure there are no violent price swings.
|
||||
|
||||
- Citadel worked with NYSE and SEC to re-architect the markets/economy on this belief that MMs will stablize and calm markets.
|
||||
|
||||
IF this is true, and IF what Ken spoke of is an accurate reflection of how the market is now structured, then here is the subtext and implications:
|
||||
|
||||
- Market Makers, specifically Citadel and Virtu, are now the ECONOMY'S "immune system," they are the first and best line of defense against catastrophic collapse.
|
||||
|
||||
- Their function is to make sure that no single security or asset class can expose the market to overwhelming risk.
|
||||
|
||||
- They manage this risk through statistical arbitrage and coordination with authorities (NYSE & SEC) on behalf of the market.
|
||||
|
||||
- Citadel worked with the oversight organizations to influence the structure of the overall market.
|
||||
|
||||
Going deeper:
|
||||
|
||||
Everyone in this room knew about naked shorting. And that Citadel was a primary culprit.
|
||||
|
||||
Which implies that somewhere, at some point, a deal was reached, tacitly or explicitly. The NYSE and SEC were in on it (at the time):
|
||||
|
||||
Citadel/MM's get to control securities prices with relative impunity. Naked shorting and all.
|
||||
|
||||
And in return, Citadel is responsible for making sure that no more crashes happen.
|
||||
|
||||
[WHAT THE FUCK.](https://i.giphy.com/media/kGweWfIbaezO8/giphy.webp) I have no words.
|
||||
|
||||
IF this is true, the implications for the MOASS are...
|
||||
|
||||
- Citadel defaulting is the equivalent of the entire economy getting full blown AIDS and spinal cancer at the same time. Knocking out the immune system and the functional response chain of the market.
|
||||
|
||||
- This leaves the market vulnerable to violent price swings that can instantly bankrupt other players
|
||||
|
||||
- ...which is why the DTCC is so concerned about member defaulting and transferring of assets...
|
||||
|
||||
- ...and another reason why the MOASS is taking so long: every player in the economy needs Citadel's assets need to remain intact, to stabilize the market and continue acting as the immune system.
|
||||
|
||||
This video is from 2018. It has been over 2 years since then, at the time of this writing.
|
||||
|
||||
Buy. Hodl.
|
||||
|
||||
* * * * *
|
||||
|
||||
Note 1: [u/dlauer](https://www.reddit.com/u/dlauer/) if you're reading this I'd like to connect re:part 3 - HMU with chat (DMs are off)\
|
||||
Note 2: If you guys find the links I couldn't find (i.e. "Greg", and the brokerage letter saying Citadel defaulting would delay their transactions) - comment and I'll update!\
|
||||
Note 3: Apes, I've seen responses to part one that end in despair. Be encouraged - regulators (NYSE, SEC, et. al) don't seem to like the current setup anymore. Gary Gensler's speech last month was laser-focused on Citadel and Virtu (and also confirms this DD):
|
||||
|
||||
> Further, wholesalers have many advantages when it comes to pricing compared to exchange market makers. The two types of market makers are operating under very different rules. [...]
|
||||
|
||||
> Within the off-exchange market maker space, we are seeing concentration. One firm has publicly stated that it executes nearly half of all retail volume.[2] There are many reasons behind this market concentration --- from payment for order flow to the growing impact of data, both of which I'll discuss.
|
||||
|
||||
> Market concentration can deter healthy competition and limit innovation. It also can increase potential system-wide risks, should any single incumbent with significant size or market share fail.
|
||||
|
||||
I don't think the guy likes Citadel very much lol
|
||||
|
||||
* * * * *
|
||||
|
||||
Edit: I'm seeing some responses that think this post implies Citadel is all powerful or controls everything. Very much not the case. Apes have them by the balls. Buy and Hodl, as always. But it helps to know exactly *what* we are up against, and *why* the MOASS is taking time. Also, we don't really want Citadel to just change the name on the building and get a new CEO - that doesn't really solve the problem, does it?
|
79
02-Resources/2021-07-01-Resources.md
Normal file
79
02-Resources/2021-07-01-Resources.md
Normal file
@ -0,0 +1,79 @@
|
||||
# Resources
|
||||
|
||||
| Last Updated | July 7, 2021 |
|
||||
| :---: | :---: |
|
||||
|
||||
| Name | Description |
|
||||
| :---: | :---: |
|
||||
| [GameStop Newsroom](https://gamestop.gcs-web.com/news-releases-0) | Stay up to date with GameStop's latest strategic initiatives. |
|
||||
| [GameStop Investor Relations](https://gamestop.gcs-web.com/home) | Source for GameStop's financial news. |
|
||||
| [Ape's Guide to the Galaxy](https://www.reddit.com/r/DDintoGME/comments/mnss65/the_apes_guide_to_the_galaxy_a_compilation_of_dds/?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share) | Compilation of DD, News, Announcements, Tools, and Resources |
|
||||
| [GME DD](https://gmedd.com/) | Resource that aggregates a compilation of GME due diligence. |
|
||||
| [GME Timeline](https://gmetimeline.com/) | Comprehensive timeline of GME-related events. |
|
||||
| [GME Technical Analysis](https://www.investing.com/equities/gamestop-corp-technical) | Tracks technical analysis, news, and other insights for a particular stock. |
|
||||
| [IBorrowDesk](https://iborrowdesk.com/report/GME) | Monitors borrow rates and availability using Interactive Broker's freely available data. |
|
||||
| [Stonk-O-Tracker](https://gme.crazyawesomecompany.com/) | Tracks available shares to borrow, options data, FTDs, and more. |
|
||||
| [Where are the Shares?](https://wherearetheshares.com/) | Tool that monitors FTDs. |
|
||||
| [SEC - Fails-to-Deliver Data](https://www.sec.gov/data/foiadocsfailsdatahtm) | Website that provides FTD data. |
|
||||
| [GME ETFs](https://www.etf.com/stock/GME) | Tracks how many ETFs hold GME. |
|
||||
| [ETF Channel](https://www.etfchannel.com/symbol/gme/) | Website that shows ETF holdings of a particular stock. |
|
||||
| [NASDAQ Short Interest](https://www.nasdaqtrader.com/Trader.aspx?id=ShortInterest#) | Provides short interest data for mid-month and end of month settlement dates for a particular stock. |
|
||||
| [Ortex - Short Interest](https://www.ortex.com/symbol/NYSE/GME/short_interest) | Dashboard that show short interest data. |
|
||||
| [NASDAQ - Real Time Trades](https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/stocks/gme/latest-real-time-trades) | Tool to monitor real time trades. |
|
||||
| [S&P 500 Heatmap](https://finviz.com/map.ashx) | Website that allows you to observe when Hedge Funds are liquidating in which sector(s). |
|
||||
| [Holdings Channel](https://www.holdingschannel.com/bystock/?symbol=gme) | Displays a list of funds holding GME. |
|
||||
| [Fintel - GME Institutional Ownership](https://fintel.io/so/us/gme) | Dashboard that shown ownership data, short interest %, and other reports. |
|
||||
| [FINRA - Morningstar](http://finra-markets.morningstar.com/MarketData/EquityOptions/detail.jsp?query=14%3A0P000002CH&sdkVersion=2.60.0) | Tracks equity and options data along with other information. |
|
||||
| [Yahoo - GME Historical Data](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/GME/history?p=GME) | Shows a running history of GME previous open and closing prices, volume, etc. |
|
||||
| [Superstonk Quants](https://www.superstonkquant.org/) | Open-source resource that aims to provide quantitative analysis on the market. |
|
||||
| [Gamestonk Terminal](https://www.reddit.com/r/DDintoGME/comments/mxl0co/move_over_bloomberg_terminal_here_comes_gamestonk/) | Bloomberg-like Terminal created by [u/SexyYear](https://www.reddit.com/u/SexyYear/) |
|
||||
| [Stockgrid - Dark Pool Data](https://www.stockgrid.io/darkpools) | Dashboard that shows dark pool data. |
|
||||
| [NASDAQ - Reg SHO Threshold List](https://www.nasdaqtrader.com/Trader.aspx?id=RegSHOThreshold) | List that displays securities that are currently on threshold. |
|
||||
| [Repo and Reverse Repo Operations](https://apps.newyorkfed.org/markets/autorates/tomo-results-display?SHOWMORE=TRUE&startDate=01/01/2000&enddate=01/01/2000) | Tracks ON-RRP and participants daily. |
|
||||
| [Buffet Indicator](https://currentmarketvaluation.com/models/buffett-indicator.php) | Resource that depicts when the market is overvalued or undervalued. |
|
||||
| [Advisor Perspectives](https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2021/06/04/the-s-p-500-dow-and-nasdaq-since-their-2000-highs) | Shows inflation-adjusted charts of the S&P 500, Dow 30, and Nasdaq. |
|
||||
| [DTCC - SEC Rule Filings](https://www.dtcc.com/legal/sec-rule-filings) | Lists rule filings from major institutions. |
|
||||
| [US Senate Stock Watcher](https://senatestockwatcher.com/) | Website created by [u/rambat1994](https://www.reddit.com/u/rambat1994/) that tracks stock trades of US Senate Members. |
|
||||
| [US House of Representatives Stock Watcher](https://housestockwatcher.com/) | Website created by [u/rambat1994](https://www.reddit.com/u/rambat1994/) that tracks stock trades of US House of Representatives. |
|
||||
| [Investor.gov - Researching Investments](https://www.investor.gov/introduction-investing/getting-started/researching-investments) | Website that you walks you through how to do your due diligence. |
|
||||
| [Tax My Tendies](https://taxmytendies.com/) | Tools that helps you calculate how much you'll owe in taxes post-MOASS. (US only). |
|
||||
| [Gamestop NFT](https://nft.gamestop.com/) | GameStops' official NFT website |
|
||||
| [GME NFT Relationships](https://github.com/schismsaints/GME_NFT) | Graphic that shows the relationships between GME tokens. |
|
||||
|
||||
*Table inspired by [u/Truffluscious](https://www.reddit.com/user/Truffluscious/)*
|
||||
|
||||
# GameStop
|
||||
| Show support at |
|
||||
| :-: |
|
||||
| [Gamestop.com](https://www.gamestop.com/) |
|
||||
| [Become a PowerUp Rewards Member](https://www.gamestop.com/poweruprewards/) |
|
||||
| [... Which gets you a subscription to Game Informer Magazine](https://www.gameinformer.com/) |
|
||||
| [Follow Gamestop on Twitter](https://twitter.com/GameStop) |
|
||||
| [Subscribe to Gamestop's YouTube Channel](https://www.youtube.com/user/gamestopvideo) |
|
||||
| [Follow Gamestop on Twitch](https://www.twitch.tv/gamestop) |
|
||||
| [Follow Gamestop on Instagram](https://www.instagram.com/gamestop/?hl=en) |
|
||||
| [Follow Gamestop on Facebook](https://www.facebook.com/GameStop) |
|
||||
| [Apple Devices- Download the Gamestop App](https://apps.apple.com/us/app/gamestop/id406033647) (Link to App Store) |
|
||||
| [Android Devices- Download the Gamestop App](https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=com.gamestop.powerup) (Link to Play Shop) |
|
||||
| Brands owned by Gamestop; ThinkGeek, GameInformer, [MicroMania](https://www.micromania.fr/), and [EB Games](https://www.ebgames.ca/) |
|
||||
| [Gamestop Ireland](https://www.gamestop.ie/), [Gamestop Germany](https://www.gamestop.de/) |
|
||||
|
||||
*Table created by [u/pinkcatsonacid](https://www.reddit.com/user/pinkcatsonacid/)*
|
||||
|
||||
# Social Media
|
||||
| Name | Twitter | YouTube |
|
||||
| :-: | :-: | :-: |
|
||||
| [Superstonk](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/) | | 🚨 [Superstonk Emergency Broadcast](https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCI4EET9NJPWxUuXGlG6fxPA) 🚨 |
|
||||
| [u/DeepFuckingValue](https://www.reddit.com/user/DeepFuckingValue/) | [@TheRoaringKitty](https://twitter.com/theroaringkitty?lang=en) | [Roaring Kitty](https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC0patpmwYbhcEUap0bTX3JQ) |
|
||||
| Ryan Cohen | [@ryancohen](https://twitter.com/ryancohen) | |
|
||||
| [HeyItsPixel](https://www.reddit.com/user/HeyItsPixeL/) | [@heyitspixel69](https://twitter.com/heyitspixel69) | |
|
||||
| [PinkCatsOnAcid](https://www.reddit.com/user/pinkcatsonacid/) | [@PinkCatsOnAcid](https://twitter.com/PinkCatsOnAcid) | |
|
||||
| [Dennis Kelleher](https://www.reddit.com/user/WallSt4MainSt/) | [@BetterMarkets](https://twitter.com/BetterMarkets) | |
|
||||
| [Alexis Goldstein](https://www.reddit.com/user/dontfightthevol/) | [@alexisgoldstein](https://twitter.com/alexisgoldstein) | |
|
||||
| Justin Dopierala | [@DOMOCAPITAL](https://twitter.com/DOMOCAPITAL) | [DOMO Capital Managment LLC](https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC3rCaBlsLlWJagcpbsais4w) |
|
||||
| Susanne Trimbath, PhD | [@SusanneTrimbath](https://twitter.com/SusanneTrimbath) | |
|
||||
| [Dave Lauer](https://www.reddit.com/user/dlauer) | [@dlauer](https://twitter.com/dlauer) | |
|
||||
| Andy Lee | | [Andy Lee](https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC2e4QZAVEXQyH7BXfEE1GyA) |
|
||||
| [ByeTriangle](https://www.reddit.com/user/Bye_Triangle/) | [@ByeTriangle](https://twitter.com/ByeTriangle) | |
|
||||
| [sharkbait](https://www.reddit.com/user/sharkbaitlol) | [@u_sharkbaitlol](https://twitter.com/u_sharkbaitlol) | |
|
||||
| [BradduckF](https://www.reddit.com/user/Bradduck_Flyntmoore/) | [@BradduckF](https://twitter.com/BradduckF) | |
|
@ -0,0 +1,298 @@
|
||||
POST AMA DD- Lucy Komisar AMA powerpoint and partial script
|
||||
===========================================================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/pinkcatsonacid](https://www.reddit.com/user/pinkcatsonacid/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nke7sp/post_ama_dd_lucy_komisar_ama_powerpoint_and/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
[Education 👨🏫 | Data 🔢](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22Education%20%F0%9F%91%A8%E2%80%8D%F0%9F%8F%AB%20%7C%20Data%20%F0%9F%94%A2%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||
Many of you noticed I made a snazzy powerpoint to use during the Lucy K AMA today, but didn't get to use it due to technical difficulties. So even though it's not the same, here is the bulk of what was intended for the interview, including Lucy's written script. Knowledge is Power! 💪
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/g8nivrt6l6171.jpg?width=677&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=60102104cecd6de43dfc9d914a4525be62e1f80b)
|
||||
|
||||
🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀
|
||||
|
||||
Lucy Komisar AMA Part 2 [(Link here)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wuPizlDY0Ys&t=22s)
|
||||
|
||||
Topic of Discussion- The SEC
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/p98qxh2476171.jpg?width=180&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=463cc9d081a8fa5a35b8828dd41b6121dd2737ec)
|
||||
|
||||
Securities and Exchange Commission
|
||||
|
||||
THE SEC for Superstonk- Script By Lucy Komisar
|
||||
|
||||
*When plunder becomes a way of life for a group of men in a society, over the course of time they create for themselves a legal system that authorizes it and a moral code that glorifies it."* --- Frédéric Bastiat, 19th century French Economist
|
||||
|
||||
How the SEC was created
|
||||
|
||||
One reason for the stock market collapses in 1929 was watering stock. A meme went "he who sells what isn't his'n must pay it back or go to prison." Traders would print up counterfeit stock certificates. Sound familiar. Naked short selling. The crash that started the depression.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/l346v5i456171.jpg?width=470&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=dbf1ac2b34080b60690ed448ed917fbce742f990)
|
||||
|
||||
Ferdinand Pecora
|
||||
|
||||
1932 Ferdinand Pecora was an immigrant working class kid from Sicily who put himself through New York Law School. He was hired in 1932 by the Senate Banking Committee to investigate the causes of the crash, to do a whitewash, but he didn't get the memo. His hearings exposed such practices as pools to support bank stock prices. Such as Let's all coordinate trades to pump up the stock. Sound familiar? GameStop? National City Bank (now Citibank) had hidden bad loans by packaging them into securities and selling them off to unwary investors. Sound familiar? Mortgage-backed securities that tanked? And that the bank sellers knew would tank?
|
||||
|
||||
The findings of the Pecora Commission exposing corruption of the financial industry let to public support for regulation, -- it took really dirty stuff to move the pubic -which would be the Glass--Steagall Banking Act of 1933, the Securities Act of 1933, and the Securities Exchange Act of 1934. That last set up the SEC.
|
||||
|
||||
Franklin Roosevelt appointed Joseph Kennedy (father of Jack and Robert) SEC chair. He had built the family fortune on financial manipulation, but Roosevelt thought he knew where the bodies were buried, who the miscreants. So the SEC cleaned up the Wall Street stables for five years. Then Kennedy's buddies of the financial oligarchy took charge again, in early regulatory capture.
|
||||
|
||||
Pecora wrote a memoir, Wall Street Under Oath. He said: "Bitterly hostile was Wall Street to the enactment of the regulatory legislation." What, the thieves don't want rule of law? About disclosure rules, he said that "Had there been full disclosure of what was being done in furtherance of these schemes, they could not long have survived the fierce light of publicity and criticism. Legal chicanery and pitch darkness were the banker's stoutest allies." Think about who are their allies today.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/kulo5kk756171.jpg?width=354&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=89e834a1f13f04b2d889fdc66e9156d0bab67db1)
|
||||
|
||||
Irving Pollack- Father of the SEC Division of Enforcement
|
||||
|
||||
1985 Irving Pollack
|
||||
|
||||
Fast forward about half a century. With the support of friends in Congress, Wall Street has neutered the securities acts by assuring the SEC would not enforce them. It made sure its foxes were guarding the henhouse. But the corruption was sometimes inconvenient. In 1985, the National Association of Securities Dealers, now FINRA, which represents the brokers, hired Irving Pollack, a former SEC commissioner who was honest, to look at short selling. Among his report's proposals: reporting of short interest -- the amount of short sales not yet covered -- should be public and perhaps more frequent. A borrowing for delivery in broker-dealer transactions should be required. A mandatory buy-in should be adopted for a delivery after a reasonable period when there has been a fail. That means the broker for the buyer who hasn't gotten the shares can buy them on the market and charge the short seller's broker. There should be surveillance of large short-interest positions, shorts not yet covered.
|
||||
|
||||
Did the SEC adopt these proposals with enthusiasm? Obviously not. Short interest is not reported frequently. Broker dealers "locate" instead of borrow or they use counterfeit shares. There's no buy-in. Buy-ins were allowed but not required. And Leslie Boni, an academic who in 2004 did a paper for the SEC on buy-ins said they were rare. But requiring buy-ins would make the stock go up, the shorts lose money.
|
||||
|
||||
And there was no surveillance of large short-interest positions.
|
||||
|
||||
In fact, corruption would be increased thanks to friends of Wall Street president Bill Clinton and his collaborator Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin (formerly of Citibank) who in 1999, killed the Glass-Steagall Act which had separated investment banking from retail banking. Retail banks till then could not use depositors' funds for risky investments. Only 10% of their income could come from selling securities.
|
||||
|
||||
That sets the stage for the last few decades.
|
||||
|
||||
2004 RegSHO set up to fail
|
||||
|
||||
The SEC, battered with complaints, in July 2004 promulgated Reg SHO, SHO for short selling. The hedge funds and big brokers who had been or would be shown to be illegally shorting all lobbied against it. It was a tepid reform of short selling that was Swiss-cheesed with loopholes. Think of Al Capone writing the tax laws. (On the other hand, his crooked progeny do write the tax laws!) Reg SHO would be implemented in 2005
|
||||
|
||||
The SEC knocked out a proposal for penalties for failing to deliver.
|
||||
|
||||
And it wrote two giant exceptions into Reg SHO. Ex-clearing and market makers.
|
||||
|
||||
The rule didn't apply to ex-clearing, which means clearing outside the DTCC, The Depository Trust Clearing Corporation, the national stock clearing company. (Yes, it's a private company owned by the broker dealers) It applied only to trades going through a registered clearing agency, i.e. what got sent through the DTCC. It said ex-clearing was "rare."
|
||||
|
||||
Sales that avoided clearing agencies could fail -- not be delivered -- without buyers' brokers reporting the fails to the DTCC or buying in, requiring the short sellers broker to buy shares on the market and deliver them. To protect short sellers and avoid Reg SHO, dealers went ex-clearing. They either cleared internally or with a cooperating broker-dealer or they went through dark pools. They were private exchanges set up by the big prime brokers and banks.
|
||||
|
||||
The major perpetrators are the large banks, doing it for large clients, hedge funds, or their own accounts. If they can do the transaction privately [ex-clearing], RegSHO doesn't apply. Now about 40% of trades go through dark pools. *If a trade failed ex-clearing, it didn't fail at the DTCC!*
|
||||
|
||||
Reg SHO also didn't apply to derivatives, the financial casino bets acknowledged as a prime cause of the current economic crisis and which also did not trade through a clearing house.
|
||||
|
||||
Even stocks that cleared through the DTCC were not always covered. The brokers got a "grandfather clause" that allowed existing fails to continue! Because we know that brokers simply rolled them over. And brokers didn't have to close out the shares they had sold short before the stock went on the Threshold List which includes shares that for five consecutive settlement days had fails to deliver of 10,000 shares or more at a clearing agency and where the level of fails was equal to at least one-half of one percent of the issuer's outstanding shares.
|
||||
|
||||
Then brokers were subject to mandatory covering only on the fifth day. Then the broker-dealer had 13 days to deliver the shares to the buyer or lender, and if it failed to do so, it could not trade that stock until it did. But the SEC knew, because staff wrote a paper on it, how options conversions allowed brokers to put off fail dates forever.
|
||||
|
||||
MARKET MAKERS
|
||||
|
||||
RegSHO allowed an options market maker exception, called after the person who designed and pushed for it: the Madoff Exception! (Did I say the crooks wrote the rules?)
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/ndifb6fvk6171.png?width=1482&format=png&auto=webp&s=4b96285ed2e17c6fa057802f34861c4c532400c0)
|
||||
|
||||
Bernie Madoff, who died in prison in Apr 2021
|
||||
|
||||
In prison in 2012 Madoff told Forbes journalist Diana Henriques: "I fell into my crime of staying Naked Short. The fact that the prosecutor and Trustee seemed clueless of this is why my frustration is so great." Clueless, or complicit? You just don't go there.
|
||||
|
||||
The SEC in 2007 eliminated Uptick Rule that requires short sales to be conducted at a higher price than the previous trade. Not helpful if the purpose is to batter down the stock price. It was never enforced.
|
||||
|
||||
2008 Stock lending and taking care of the banks
|
||||
|
||||
According to the SEC Office of Economic Analysis (2008) Reg SHO in effect since 2005 had not reduced outstanding fails. Many stocks remained on the SEC Regulation SHO Threshold List for hundreds of trading days
|
||||
|
||||
For years, the SEC claimed naked short selling and fails to deliver were not a problem. Once things began to go sour in 2008, the first thing the SEC did was ban naked short selling in 17 financial stocks plus Fannie and Freddie. It was ironic, since the big banks/brokers had been carrying out the scam on others. Hoist on their own petard.
|
||||
|
||||
And they chose the solution that people battling naked short selling had advocated for years. A July 2008 order said no traders could make trades involving those institutions unless they had pre-borrowed the security or otherwise had it available in their inventory. They had to deliver the security on the settlement date. Borrow shares before you sell them short. Stop the counterfeiting. All the regs that came out were because naked shorting, the counterfeiting of shares, was undermining banks. The SEC went from nothing is happening till the fall of 2008 that the market coming apart because of naked shorting. They chose the solution that people battling naked short selling had advocated for years. Borrow shares before you sell them short. Stop the counterfeiting.
|
||||
|
||||
The SEC said it was investigating the collapse of Bear Stearns. It had been massively naked shorted. The SEC didn't come up with anything.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/jca68d5g56171.jpg?width=330&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=741e78b0f0b0ac9ab85b0f27f872316eabbca976)
|
||||
|
||||
Ted Kaufman- former US Senator, Delaware
|
||||
|
||||
2009 Kaufman and the hard locate
|
||||
|
||||
A little-known backstory involved former Delaware Senator Ted Kaufman who ran Biden's post-election transition team. It shows how big stock market players and the institutions they control have blocked attempts to deal with naked short selling. Kaufman was Biden's longtime chief of staff, and was named to the Senate seat vacated by his boss when Biden became Barack Obama's vice president.
|
||||
|
||||
After the 2008 market meltdown that included abusive naked short selling of Bear Stearns and Lehman Brothers, Kaufman, a Democrat, and Georgia senator Johnny Isakson, a Republican, introduced legislation that directed the SEC to write regulations to end the practice. They determined that the SEC's current regulations were unenforceable. Hedge funds could spread rumors, do massive shorts without locating stocks, and deliver after the prices dropped.
|
||||
|
||||
In July 2009, Kaufman and six colleagues from both parties wrote to the SEC, proposing a "hard locate" plan that would ban all short sales unless the executing broker first obtained a unique identification number for the shares, perhaps through an automated centralized system. This would prevent multiple short sales on the basis of a single share.
|
||||
|
||||
According to Jeff Connaughton, then Kaufman's chief of staff, months before the letter, "the DTCC (the national stock clearing agency) had gone to the SEC with a proposed solution to naked short selling that looked like Kaufman's solution, with the DTCC creating a centralized database that would prevent the same shares from being used for multiple short sales.
|
||||
|
||||
The DTCC told Connaughton, 'We got pulled back.' They meant, he said, by their board, by the Wall Street powers-that-be." Because in the case of the DTCC as well as the SEC, the fox is guarding the henhouse.
|
||||
|
||||
In 2009 staffers of the Senators met with the SEC's Enforcement Division to find out the status of its investigation into the naked short selling of Bear Stearns and Lehman stock. SEC lawyers told them they'd have to be patient and that the investigation would take at least another year. It never happened.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/m6a9h2jl56171.png?width=263&format=png&auto=webp&s=4074499e1301f9ad2712d1a806d20a0383873fa2)
|
||||
|
||||
Ted Kaufman as long time advisor to the current President
|
||||
|
||||
2010 Kaufman continued to try to fight naked short selling in the Dodd-Frank debate. SEC had been ordered by the Dodd-Frank law of 2010 11 years ago to require more transparency in short selling and stock lending. It has ignored it.
|
||||
|
||||
There were some alleged improvements made that year, 2008.
|
||||
|
||||
The market makers exemption was eliminated, because the SEC said substantial levels of fails had continued in Threshold securities, and a significant number were the result of market maker exceptions. But they still had 6 days to settle their trades. So you have market makers failing and rolling their shares over every 5 ½ days.
|
||||
|
||||
The grandfather provision on Threshold securities was eliminated. Unless its position in Threshold securities was closed, a broker-dealer couldn't effect further shorts in them without borrowing or arranging to borrow the securities. Don't worry, they finessed that.
|
||||
|
||||
The amendments addressed fake borrows. It said that where a broker-dealer entered into an arrangement with another party to purchase or borrow securities, and the broker-dealer knew or has reason to know that the other party would not deliver securities in settlement of the transaction, the purchase or borrow would not be *"bona fide."*
|
||||
|
||||
It repeated that: "The NSCC - clears and settles the majority of equity securities trades conducted on the exchanges and in the over-the-counter market."
|
||||
|
||||
So the rules still didn't apply to ex-clearing and dark pools. So the ex-clearing route to naked shorts was protected. fails could be concealed at the start by ex-by not reporting them to the NSCC, the National Securities Clearing Corporation.
|
||||
|
||||
In fact, the dealers could use ex-clearing to opt out of fails from trades through the exchanges. They could take them onto their own books and deal with the fails as they chose to, meaning do nothing, let the fails sit*.*
|
||||
|
||||
And protecting the interests of the big banks/brokerages, the SEC did not include a hard locate requirement in its amendments to Reg SHO.
|
||||
|
||||
But the SEC occasionally takes enforcement actions that go after low-hanging fruit, ie don't bother anyone significant or don't order more than minor penalties, the cost of doing business.
|
||||
|
||||
2003 Sedona/Badians
|
||||
|
||||
The Sedona case, where the Badian brothers ran a death spiral financing scheme that in 2001 involved providing a loan that would be repaid in shares. And then it did a massive shorting attack that knocked down the price of the shares from $6 to 20cents. the SEC in February 2003 filed a complaint against Thomas Badian and his company, Rhino, for fraud and market manipulation of Sedona shares. Badian and Rhino immediately settled with the SEC for a $1-million fine without admitting or denying guilt. The $1 mil was a pittance, cost of doing business.
|
||||
|
||||
In 2006, the SEC filed a civil suit against Andreas Badian, four officials of Pond Equities and a trader at Refco, all involved directly in the naked shorting, but not against Ladenburg, the high-profile broker-dealer that facilitated the deals and collaborators.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/fqrt6qam66171.jpg?width=960&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=f91e36651dc8f18ba0e83a6e77d3bc079b718f3c)
|
||||
|
||||
2005 Eagletech
|
||||
|
||||
Eagletech, which had an invention, new at the time, to push phone calls to other devices. letting people to usee a single phone number that followed them from phone to phone. He became a target of a group of death spiral financing criminals working with Salomon Smith Barney in New York five Salomon officers and a group of investors offering to buy convertible preferred shares from Eagletech for up to $6 million
|
||||
|
||||
They did a pump up and then naked shorting so the stock dropped from $14 to 75 cents, reducing the market value by $113 ml. The stock went to 2 cents. The FBI was investigating. They busted 17 members of organized crime, including the crooks that ran the scheme against Eagletech.
|
||||
|
||||
SEC filed suit against Serubo, Labella and organized crime collaborators who ran the corrupt operation that got control of stock of Eagletech. It said they generated in excess of $12.7 million from the sale of Eagletech stock. Members of his Salomon Smith Barney financing team and their options market-makers in Chicago were selling shares and then failing to deliver.
|
||||
|
||||
Serubo, Labella and organized crime collaborators would be banned from penny stock trading and pay back the ill-gotten gains and fines. I couldn't find any penalties against the Salomon Smith Barney team or their options market maker collaborators.
|
||||
|
||||
Then the SEC filed suit against the victim, Eagletech, to deregister its shares because it couldn't afford several hundred thousand dollars to file audited financial reports. The delisting is like a bankruptcy, all investors are wiped out and the naked shorters never have to cover. The SEC finished what the mob started, it killed the company.
|
||||
|
||||
2007 Goldman
|
||||
|
||||
From at least March 2000 to May 2002, that's more than 2 years, certain customers of Goldman Clearing used the firm's direct market access, automated trading system to unlawfully sell securities short in advance of follow-on and secondary offerings when they could get the shares cheaper.
|
||||
|
||||
Although they were selling the offered securities short, used Goldman Clearing's direct market access, automated trading platform, the REDI System, preparing their own orders to sell on computer terminals and falsely marked them "long." The orders were routed directly to the New York Stock Exchange and other markets for execution.
|
||||
|
||||
Goldman Clearing's own records contained information that Customers were selling securities short and that they were misrepresenting their "short" sales as "long". Goldman Clearing's records showed that the customers were repeatedly failing to deliver to Goldman Clearing the securities that they purported to sell long.
|
||||
|
||||
So for two years of allowing shorts to be marked longs, Goldman had to pay civil money penalty of -- wait for it -- $1 million
|
||||
|
||||
2012 SEC v OptionsXpress
|
||||
|
||||
OptionsXpress, a wholly-owned subsidiary of Charles Schwab repeatedly engaged in sham transactions, known as "resets," designed to give the appearance of having purchased shares to close-out an open failure-to-deliver position while in fact not doing so.
|
||||
|
||||
OptionsXpress had its customers buying shares and simultaneously selling call options that were the equivalent of selling shares short. The purchase of shares created the illusion that the firm had covered the short; however, the shares were never actually delivered to the buyers because on the same day, calls were exercised, effectively reselling the shares. The purpose was to perpetuate an open short position.
|
||||
|
||||
In 2009, the six optionsXpress customer accounts bought $5.7 billion worth of securities and sold short approximately $4 billion of options. They did this to a couple of dozen companies. In January 2010, the customers who did the scam accounted for 48% of the daily trading volume in Sears. In the end OptionsXpress had to pay $4 million. Cost of doing business.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/si49uknr56171.jpg?width=206&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=56bf1d0512b8fdfc9e42c662d506fd8bc85c821f)
|
||||
|
||||
Gary Aguirre- Former Investigator for SEC & Whistleblower
|
||||
|
||||
The insiders tell the SEC corruption
|
||||
|
||||
The story of Gary Aguirre says it all
|
||||
|
||||
As a student at Georgetown Law School, Aguirre got a prize from the SEC for paper on Wall Street corruption as detailed in the Pecora hearings that led to passage of the Securities Act of 1933. So we know where he stands. In September 2004, he started as a senior counsel at the SEC Division of Enforcement. He said, "I understood what SEC was supposed to be doing: keep Wall Street from running amok. The SEC in July had promulgated Reg SHO, which it said would stop abusive naked short selling. He recalled, "The first thing I noticed is there seemed to be a deference to the large law firms who represented Wall Street players. And there were a lot of people there not at the same skill set level as the attorneys representing some of the players from Wall Street.
|
||||
|
||||
Aguirre was assigned to an investigation that implicated a powerful Wall Street insider. John Mack had been head of the hedge fund Pequot Capital Management. The suspicion was that Mack had tipped Pequot's then CEO, Arthur Samberg, of General Electric's pending acquisition of Heller Financial. Mack was the only suspect. Without that investigation, the SEC would never be able to even consider the filing of insider trading charges against Mack, Samberg, Pequot or anyone else arising out of Pequot's trading in GE and Heller
|
||||
|
||||
Aguirre refused to stop his investigation; Senior officials within the SEC's Division of Enforcement blocked an SEC subpoena seeking Mack's testimony and records in the investigation. Aguirre had contacted the Office of Special Counsel to discuss the filing of a complaint about the SEC's protection of Mack. Three days later, while on vacation, Aguirre was abruptly fired without warning on September 1, 2005, he was fired by phone.
|
||||
|
||||
An SEC official told him it would be very difficult to take Mack's testimony because of his political influence. He told him that Mack was "an industry captain," that he had powerful contacts . . . , that Mary Jo White could contact a number of powerful individuals, any of whom could call Linda about the examination. Mary Jo White was a lawyer at a Wall Street firm, Linda was Linda Thomsen, the head of enforcement. Aguirre confirmed the conversation in two e-mails to the official the next morning. The first email referenced Ferdinand Pecora.
|
||||
|
||||
Aguirre gave key papers to Charles Grassley on the Senate Finance Committee. And to the Judiciary Cmte. There were hearings in 2006.
|
||||
|
||||
He told Congress that an SEC official told him it would be very difficult to take Mack's testimony because of his political influence. The official told him Mack was "an industry captain," that he had powerful contacts . . . , that Mary Jo White could contact a number of powerful individuals, any of whom could call Linda about the examination. Mary Jo White was a lawyer at a Wall Street firm, Linda Thomsen was head of enforcement.
|
||||
|
||||
He said the SEC "favor" to Mack cleared the way for his return on June 30, 2005, as Morgan Stanley's CEO with no danger of an SEC lawsuit for insider trading. Mary Jo White would become chair of the SEC 2013 to 2017, appointed by Wall Street's favorite guy, Barak Obama, who apparently didn't know the Aguirre story.
|
||||
|
||||
Later David Kotz, the SEC's inspector general, said he had found evidence that "raised serious questions about the impartiality and fairness" of the SEC's investigation of possible insider trading at the Pequot Capital Management hedge fund.
|
||||
|
||||
Kotz also condemned what he called the "common practice" of giving outside lawyers' clients access to high-level SEC officials when they had complaints about front-line investigators. Kotz made numerous recommendations for reform, which the SEC ignored.
|
||||
|
||||
Aguirre sued the SEC and won ¾ of million $ in back pay and damages.
|
||||
|
||||
Mack, after being CEO Morgan Stanley, became CEO of Credit Suisse, then chair of Morgan Stanley and now is senior advisor to the global investment firm Kohlberg Kravis Roberts, whose strategic partners are hedge funds.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/odru363cqa171.jpg?width=200&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=852f95acbb1d5354e65c9f6b1fc32c131c93a32a)
|
||||
|
||||
Mark Fickes
|
||||
|
||||
2005 Fickes and Overstock, Chris Cox
|
||||
|
||||
Here's another case of an SEC staffer who tried to do the right thing but was pulled back. In August 2005, Overstock.com filed suit against hedge fund Rocker Partners and the equities research firm, Gradient Analytics saying they illegally colluded in short-selling the company while paying for negative reports to drive down share prices.
|
||||
|
||||
Byrne took his information to the SEC. Mark Fickes of the SEC San Francisco office. He said, "Look at the patterns, their stocks are naked shorted by Dan Loeb, David Einhorn, Steven Cohen, David Rocker. [Look at] the dates journalists Bethany, Boyd, Remond, Greenberg wrote trash jobs. [that was Bethany McLean writing for Fortune, Carol Remond for Dow Jones, Roddy Boyd for the NY Post, Herb Greenberg for MarketWatch] Byrne said, "It was the same pattern, each one of these one of these journalists writes a hatchet job, there is naked shorting, SEC action begins against them, and the Milberg Weiss lawsuit. In every case, it's part of same bum rush on the stock."
|
||||
|
||||
Byrne argued that Gradient, an investment advisor which was putting out fraudulent reports the shorters used, should be investigated -- and that the journalists were central to his case. The subpoenas were issued to Carol Remond and Herb Greenberg to provide information about conversations that they had with stock traders and analysts.
|
||||
|
||||
Fickes issued the subpoenas with the approval of the SEC's head of enforcement, Linda Thomsen. It was announced that the SEC was investigating Gradient and had issued subpoenas to Carol Remond, Herb Greenberg and to Jim Cramer of TheStreet. David Rocker sold his shares in TheStreet. A month later Cramer sold some of his shares.
|
||||
|
||||
Bryne: "Jim Cramer gets a subpoena; you have three days to disclose it. He knows TheStreet will crater, he can't just go sell it with undisclosed material information. He can get a plan to sell x amount per quarter after he gets the subpoena. TheStreet broke under a dollar."
|
||||
|
||||
"Why would a hedge fund guy have an interest to own a financial publication? Cramer discloses in his books stuff that is widely illegal. Protection for journalists is about protecting sources about stories they are writing, not about their own corrupt market manipulation."
|
||||
|
||||
The question is whether freedom of the press extends to reporters whose articles are part of illegal naked short selling scams. Fickes wanted to know.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/s650tr5z56171.jpg?width=330&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=e085154954818611d3c78b7b0ed95a00a02303c7)
|
||||
|
||||
Chris Cox- Former SEC Chair
|
||||
|
||||
He was summoned to Washington to meet with the new SEC chair, Cris Cox. Ultimately, Byrne said, the SEC caved under the media pressure. Cox killed the subpoenas and the SEC dropped its investigation of Gradient. Cox was SEC chair when Gary Aguirre was fired.
|
||||
|
||||
What should the SEC do now? Solutions are there if it wants to protect investors, not do as it is told by the big broker-dealers.
|
||||
|
||||
- Require buy-ins. Require the broker of the investor who doesn't get shorted stock delivered to buy it on the market and charge the seller's broker. Of course, requiring buy-ins would make the stock go up, the shorters lose money.
|
||||
|
||||
- Restore the uptick rule so shorters can't sell for less that the last shorted trade. That would stop shorters hammering a stock down to bankruptcy.
|
||||
|
||||
- Create a consolidated audit trail (CAT) to collect order and trade execution information to identify and enable punishment of illegal trading activities, including naked short selling. More than a decade after the SEC promised it, following the 2010 flash crash, CAT doesn't exist.
|
||||
|
||||
- Impose real penalties on transgressors, like loss of license.
|
||||
|
||||
- Send cases of serial trading cheats to the Justice Department for criminal prosecution.
|
||||
|
||||
- End the revolving door with Wall Street.
|
||||
|
||||
- What will Gary Gensler do? And will he listen most to the pushback from the big brokers or investors like people on Superstonk?
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/8x1el37566171.jpg?width=988&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=296865c7cefe2fbb38b2ce25f4e6730bb498fa2a)
|
||||
|
||||
Gary Gensler- Current SEC Chair
|
||||
|
||||
_____________________________________________________________________________________
|
||||
|
||||
Questions
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/wwox8t4896171.jpg?width=998&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=01378e780fc8c6f174a6c840b76132b2b9e33c1e)
|
||||
|
||||
- You mentioned in your last interview that NSS has been going on for a very long time, but that it ends with Gamestop. Can you clarify further *how* you see this ending with Gamestop?
|
||||
|
||||
>LK: I meant the story I tell in the book I am writing ends with GameStop. NSS goes on.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/x8tcjb0m96171.png?width=1234&format=png&auto=webp&s=051d06480a45392f1cf48bd7579fc85a6f609447)
|
||||
|
||||
- Understanding that this is an unprecedented situation, we would simply like your personal opinion: Do you think that Wall Street/ US Gov't could/would pull some "trickery" to prevent the short squeeze from happening? What rules are they unable, or unwilling to break?
|
||||
|
||||
>LK: We saw in GameStop trickery using dark pool trades of single shares. We know -- even the SEC admits -- that brokers create fake options conversions shares. They will break every rule, helped by the SEC which chooses not to enforce or orders mild penalties.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/6prc9two96171.jpg?width=1079&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=5901203d74c13d3f0177dc484a6838a6b62a12e6)
|
||||
|
||||
now i want to play stardew valley
|
||||
|
||||
- What is your recommendation for finding a trustworthy, easily digestible news source for those of us who "don't have the time" to watch full hearings or read full bills?
|
||||
|
||||
>LK: Depends on the subject. An aggregator I like is Naked Capitalism which has a lot of economic stories. The Daily Poster of David Sirota. I think the American Prospect that ran my NSS story is good. You have to try various online media to find the ones that do what your asking.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/iosfnjcv96171.jpg?width=1080&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=dc409dc5f02241f1aa8d009096fcb65758e029a9)
|
||||
|
||||
*For clarification- The Hearings will be held: by U.S. Senate Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs on May 26, and by the U.S. House Committee on Financial Services on May 27.*
|
||||
|
||||
- Congress has 2 hearings scheduled this week that are bringing megabank execs up to testify. In your opinion, will the correct questions be asked, or do you believe this is just political theatre?
|
||||
|
||||
>LK: It's political theater. This is the same congress that has not reinstated the Glass -Steagall act of 1933 that separated commercial and investment banking, meaning keeping depositors' money from being used for banks own investments. thanks to Bill Clinton and Robert Rubin, the friends of Wall Street. You can tie the 2008 crash to that.
|
||||
|
||||
_________________________________________________________________________________________________
|
||||
|
||||
Thank y'all again for being so awesome through technical difficulties!! The show must go on, right?
|
||||
|
||||
Thanks again to Lucy Komisar for joining us for a second time. Lucy will be back next Wednesday to speak with Wes Christian. Details to come in tomorrow's Jungle Beat! Be sure to follow [u/theJungleBeat](https://www.reddit.com/u/theJungleBeat/) so you catch the latest news from around Superstonk, every day at market close!
|
||||
|
||||
I did speak to Lucy on the phone tonight and we agreed to both have a glass of wine in honor of Supertonk. And she said she will be sure to charge her iPad ;) 🥂
|
@ -0,0 +1,112 @@
|
||||
Theory: The SLGG merger IS happening, it's a MOASS launching button and RC has been pointing it out for a long time (TODAY AS WELL ♥)
|
||||
=====================================================================================================================================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/pepsodont](https://www.reddit.com/user/pepsodont/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/ngdwjj/theory_the_slgg_merger_is_happening_its_a_moass/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
[Opinion 👽](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22Opinion%20%F0%9F%91%BD%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||
I think it might be apparent from my posts now that I'm not wrinkle-brained in financials, chart reading and other ~~boring~~ important stuff but I like finding patterns. I've been working as a psychologist and a marketer for a long time, so believe me when I tell you there's a lot to be uncovered by understanding behavior patterns or just patterns of things that look unrelated, but really aren't.
|
||||
|
||||
Some people call it far-reaching, tinfoil, confirmation bias, whatever - but check my post history and you'll see I've been more right than wrong.
|
||||
|
||||
As one of the veteran apes wrote in a comment in here once: "One weird thing happening is a coincidence, two is enemy action".
|
||||
|
||||
So with that in mind, let's check out why I think this is a pattern (not a coincidence) which is pointing into Gamestop merging with SLGG after all. Yes, even after we forgot about it because we thought it was a nothingburger.
|
||||
|
||||
Once again - this is a "tinfoil" theorycrafting. Don't go into comments telling me that, I KNOW. Get in here to get your tits jacked and drink up on confirmation bias. Alright, retards?
|
||||
|
||||
1\. Gamestop changing its logo
|
||||
|
||||
Today, apes started reporting Gamestop changing its logo from "Gamestop" to just "GS" on WeBull. We also saw a changed logo on their astronaut tweet.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/rt1hpjcyo5071.png?width=591&format=png&auto=webp&s=b62b363068dbe4a36e486f62cfa77e83dffec0b1)
|
||||
|
||||
There's no reason to do it unless you're planning on changing that logo - if they wanted it shorter, they could've gone for "GME" which is standard and everybody knows it.
|
||||
|
||||
Conclusion: It looks like Gamestop is signaling a logo change. When do you usually change a company's logo? When the company goes through a transformation, maybe a merger.
|
||||
|
||||
2\. The astronaut is drinking Carlsberg beer which underwent a notable merger recently
|
||||
|
||||
We thought that the Carlsberg beer was a nod to our AMA with Carl Hagberg, but was it really?
|
||||
|
||||
Just google "Carlsberg" and "merge" - [one of the biggest merges in the last year](https://www.bighospitality.co.uk/Article/2020/10/30/Carlsberg-and-Marston-s-merger-completes) with Marston's taking a smaller position of 40% despite their much more superior valuation with difference in 380 million of british pounds.
|
||||
|
||||
3\. A merger would put GME shares on the moon, it's a fucking launch button
|
||||
|
||||
If you don't know, I'll tell you something juicy. If, theoretically, Gamestop were to merge with another entity (RC Ventures, SLGG) and decided on changing their name even slightly, they would get a new stock market ticker.
|
||||
|
||||
That would initiate a mother of all share recalls since ALL the issued shares would have to be taken in for ~~questioning about Kenny's mayo habits~~ a reissuance - which means all the lent shares would be requested back and the naked ones would have to be bought at market price. That would initiate the MOASS.
|
||||
|
||||
4\. Gamestop has a brand new official esports Twitter page
|
||||
|
||||
If you create an esports Twitter page, you probably want to start dabbling in esports, right? But damn, it's fucking hard for a transforming company to just start an esports division on their own from scratch, where would they even begin? They didn't even hire key managers for this, so how are they gonna navigate through these salty waters?
|
||||
|
||||
Well, the industry standard for companies who want to enter a new market and have cash is to simply BUY A COMPANY THAT SPECIALIZES IN THAT MARKET.
|
||||
|
||||
Boy, would it be fortunate if such a company was aro....oh fuck me Ryan, where exactly were you a few weeks ago?
|
||||
|
||||
5\. RC was near SLGG HQ and he tweeted about it
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/o9lwxqvcp5071.png?width=1507&format=png&auto=webp&s=f08bd9a69f46f5094c7a85985d2c316db526603a)
|
||||
|
||||
Why would you pinpoint where you are Ryan?
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/puf08k8fp5071.png?width=967&format=png&auto=webp&s=77f5e8eac8974c2b6d58f82e5dfd08a480b4e737)
|
||||
|
||||
Oh that's why!
|
||||
|
||||
6\. RC tweeted an ice-cream and a frog pointing at Ann Hand, CEO of SLGG
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/yvw3kl3ip5071.png?width=603&format=png&auto=webp&s=bd5b09f8fcc79eca28bbe14cbe22cc5938bd9a36)
|
||||
|
||||
I was there, 3000 years ago...
|
||||
|
||||
Yeah, the famous ice-cream and a frog tweet. I don't think any of the theories as of to its significance paid off so let me offer one of the less popular ones.
|
||||
|
||||
Check out where did Ann Hand, the CEO of SLGG work before.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/7swu9s1pp5071.png?width=796&format=png&auto=webp&s=3d421bcdf96bf5f2ca0faeb564c0f6ba0ad82088)
|
||||
|
||||
Coincidences, huh?
|
||||
|
||||
7\. He tweeted "love" recently and a heart / love today (probably completely wrong, check EDIT)
|
||||
|
||||
Why repeat the same sentiment Ryan? What's so important about love? Are you just sending positive vibes our way? You never did this before, why would you start now, without reason?
|
||||
|
||||
My personal opinion on this is that the grandma tweet didn't work the way he wanted to - maybe it was a funny coincidence it worked so well with lyrics saying hold me hold me squeeze me or maybe he didn't realize. After all, he never tried decrypting his tweets in song lyrics so I don't think it was intentional.
|
||||
|
||||
Did you guys realize how fast this tweet came? It's almost like "yeah, but I wanted to tell you something else".
|
||||
|
||||
By going with that theory - what does "love" usually mean? Love, sex, all that stuff - isn't it a merger between 2 people usually? Hmmm? HMMMMMMM?
|
||||
|
||||
I know many people will say "tinfoil", "far-reaching", "reaching", "speculating", blahblah, miss me with that noise. No shit this is a speculation, there's nothing else to do with it.
|
||||
|
||||
But that's how investigation works. You create a hypothesis, a theory and later you'll see if you were right or not. For me personally, these things are adding up too nicely for them to be "just coincidences" or "glitches" or shit.
|
||||
|
||||
No, this is a pattern.
|
||||
|
||||
Could I be wrong? Most likely. But it's the best we got imo. Have fun jacking them tits to this motherload of confirmation bias! 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀
|
||||
|
||||
*- Jacques Le Titz*
|
||||
|
||||
EDIT: It came into my attention that the heart ❤️ tweet would be much simpler to explain with "hedgies are on their last life". I'm a big fan of Occam's Razor, so I'm going to go with it - the grandma tweet has therefore been decrypted nicely and "love" isn't the concept he's going for!
|
||||
|
||||
I also like the theory it's a < and 3, which means "less than 3" weeks to the meeting. Theorycrafting is fun!
|
||||
|
||||
EDIT 2: Ugh, because I probably should've seen it coming - no people, I'm not encouraging anyone to buy SLGG. The only position I have is GME, because that's the only play.
|
||||
|
||||
But if you want to I mean, sure, I'm pumping it and then dumping with a fucking tinfoil hat theory, Jesus. I have the dump button right before me and it's big and red (that's what she said). SMH
|
||||
|
||||
EDIT 3 because of course: Guys, please, be careful about buying SLGG. People are already going apeshit (haha) on me that this is a pump and dump post since Citadel is long on SLGG.
|
||||
|
||||
That fact alone doesn't mean anything since Shitadel is long on thousands of stocks and they could expect GME to do exactly what I've been saying and maybe they want to block them by voting against or they wanna ride the wave, I don't know. Nobody knows. Just...fuck other stocks except GME okay?
|
||||
|
||||
It's also up by 15% or so AH so yay for the power of Superstonk I guess?
|
||||
|
||||
EDIT 4: No I don't have a damn clue what's going on with the All Seeing Awards. Maybe DFV's mouse button got stuck and he needs help with the mouse since he's not a cat?
|
||||
|
||||
EDIT 5: For those who STILL don't believe this is an organic post, here are the screenshots ( <https://i.imgur.com/naiRTJP.png> and <https://i.imgur.com/f3CEioL.png> ) of how the idea originated in our private Discord and that should be the end of it or I swear to Wendy's tendies I will turn into a vibrator from so much shaking of my head.
|
@ -0,0 +1,42 @@
|
||||
Every ape gets paid. A look at the numbers.
|
||||
===========================================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/Themeloncalling](https://www.reddit.com/user/Themeloncalling/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nihl31/every_ape_gets_paid_a_look_at_the_numbers/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
[Education 👨🏫 | Data 🔢](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22Education%20%F0%9F%91%A8%E2%80%8D%F0%9F%8F%AB%20%7C%20Data%20%F0%9F%94%A2%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||
TL;DR: Apes can get tendies. No doomsday for world economy. Ook ook. 🚀 🚀 🚀
|
||||
|
||||
Who pays the apes?
|
||||
|
||||
Let's take a look at the chain of failures. Short hedgies go broke trying to pay the apes with shares. Their positions are transferred to their creditors, the big banks. What happens when they don't have enough money? They go to the lender of last resort, in this case, the Federal Reserve. Here's a video on it:
|
||||
|
||||
<https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Tb4Dkf5puJg>
|
||||
|
||||
The last time this happened was in 2008, when among others, AIG latched onto the Federal tit for a massive bailout and later paid hundreds of millions in bonuses to the very department that triggered the bailout. Seriously, this happened: <https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AIG_bonus_payments_controversy>
|
||||
|
||||
If any of you XX or higher shareholders out there are holding past $218 million in payouts as a symbolic gesture, just remember, you deserve it more than AIG. Anyone who says otherwise can go play leapfrog with unicorns.
|
||||
|
||||
How much will the Fed need to print?
|
||||
|
||||
According to this DD on Geometric Mean: <https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/comments/m9td6w/estimations_for_the_total_payout_of_gme_based_on/>
|
||||
|
||||
Around 5 trillion dollars at the $20 million a share range, averaged out for paper hands along the way. Assuming that 20% of the ownership is outside of America, that leaves 4 trillion going into the domestic economy. But wait! Taxes. 2 trillion goes to apes, 2 trillion goes to the treasury. If I was the ruling party, 2 trillion dollars with no strings attached to advance my party's interests would be pretty sweet, another reason why doing nothing is the best approach. The budgetary spending for 2020 was 4.79 trillion dollars. This windfall would be worth around 41.8% of their budget. Imagine if the government was an average person, 41.8% of what they spend for the year is a small jackpot but not life changing. It is definitely not enough to be considered hyperinflation. Assuming that 80% of this subreddit is American shareholders, this works out to be 240,000 shareholders / 331 million people = 0.0725% of the population. Spreading the payout around such a small group of people will not have a huge effect on the consumer price index or put a lot of pressure on demand, unless you are considering fringe categories like Lambos and McLarens.
|
||||
|
||||
Won't all this money ruin the economy?
|
||||
|
||||
NO! According to the Fed data gathered by Forbes, the top 1% of Americans have a combined net worth of 34.2 trillion dollars: <https://www.forbes.com/sites/tommybeer/2020/10/08/top-1-of-us-households-hold-15-times-more-wealth-than-bottom-50-combined/?sh=5b0c5c835179>
|
||||
|
||||
The top 1% own 43% of the world's wealth, totaling over 173.3 trillion dollars in 2019: <https://inequality.org/facts/global-inequality/>
|
||||
|
||||
With the geometric mean, the top 1% of wealth in America will increase by 5.8%. On a global scale, 3 trillion dollars after taxes is a 1.7% increase. The payout will register a small blip, and those who paper hand early may not even make the cut for the top 1%. What does this conclude? Fears of an ape payout causing hyperinflation is FUD. The payout causing global hyperinflation or massive distortion of the world's wealth is FUD. Don't hold for a number that seems big to you. Hold for a number that seems big to THEM. Even if the number of diamond hands doubles or triples, 9 trillion dollars after taxes is a small ripple in the global supply of wealth. Let's hope some of you apes will know how to create a positive butterfly effect with your tendies.
|
||||
|
||||
Edit: [u/Allohn](https://www.reddit.com/u/Allohn/) pointed out this DD here has a more correct Apeish number of 60 trillion:
|
||||
|
||||
<https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/mmt8rh/geometric_mean_exponential_increase_and_gme_price/?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share>
|
||||
|
||||
How does that change the overall picture? 25 trillion taxes, 25 trillion to apes, 10 trillion abroad. Net impact of 35 trillion. 20.2% increase in the top 1% of worldwide wealth with ultimate diamond hands. Still not enough to pay off the national debt of 28 trillion and counting. Seeing as how M2 is no longer counted, and the true number of shares to be paid out is unknown, I wonder if they can sweep this much money under the rug. Only one way to find out!
|
@ -0,0 +1,42 @@
|
||||
According to TradingView.com, Crypto market has liquidated over $1,000,000,000,000 USD since May. The price of GME has no limit.
|
||||
================================================================================================================================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/KFC_just](https://www.reddit.com/user/KFC_just/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nj5beh/according_to_tradingviewcom_crypto_market_has/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
[Discussion 🦍](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22Discussion%20%F0%9F%A6%8D%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||
TL;DR: Pretty picture show hedgies r fukt.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/vvr25m60ku071.png?width=2048&format=png&auto=webp&s=0eb9c9f529beb404146c59563a9efc161919386f)
|
||||
|
||||
1Trillion gone from Crypto since May 2021
|
||||
|
||||
So i have seen several posts debating firstly the potential size of the collective payout that is going to come for GME, and secondly what the maximum price that will actually be paid for GME is likely to be.
|
||||
|
||||
While everything is a hypothetical until it happens, and I am by no means a maths guy, I submit that the evidence of massive liquidations of the crypto currency market which we strongly think is being cyclically pumped and dumped to raise cash for Citadel and co, I submit that the grand total of 1 Trillion dollars so far just on crypto means that we control the price.
|
||||
|
||||
There are of course the usual caveats that not all of this is GME related, or Citadel related, but involve every other possible reason in addition for every other player involved, preparations for Atobitt to release HOC 2 and 3 and trigger the liquidity crisis, and yada tada yada you get the point.
|
||||
|
||||
But, caveats aside, the fact that 1 Trillion dollars has already been pulled out of just one sector of the market in preparation should be sufficient to jack your tits.
|
||||
|
||||
Every single share of Gamestop both real and synthetic, in market, in dark pools, in ETFs, in options and calls and puts and shorts and everything else under the sun, every single one of them already has a designated owner before this started. Remember that. Before apes began mass buying and holding every single share was already owned. And now they're all "owned" many times over. What fun.
|
||||
|
||||
This is why they cheated and lied and stole and counterfeited more shares than could ever exist in this company. This is why it is impossible for them to close their positions. This is why they are collectively collecting 1 Trillion dollars just to start with.
|
||||
|
||||
Because every single paper handed bitch in the world selling low couldnt possibly change this maths now that so many synthetic shares are due. Every single share, real and synthetic, must be purchased at whatever price is available. And as the paper hands leave, and shares concentrate in the diamond hands of the apes, the price to buy increases exponentially.
|
||||
|
||||
All shorts must cover
|
||||
|
||||
This is why you are going to win.
|
||||
|
||||
Edit: [Link to TradingView source](https://www.tradingview.com/markets/cryptocurrencies/global-charts/) damn watching that go down in real time across the whole crypto, rather than any particular stock is quite the sight.
|
||||
|
||||
Edit 2 shills got to pump it
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/hywxgvkqrx071.png?width=2048&format=png&auto=webp&s=1cc378aeff2e99171575895b61a1dfe1c4de4655)
|
||||
|
||||
Headline 1: Bitcoin tumbles 50%. Headline 2: Buy now you fool. Transparent much
|
@ -0,0 +1,100 @@
|
||||
GME, Banks Falling Off a Cliff, The Movie Stock, Elliot Waves, WUT Mean For This Week? 🚀
|
||||
=========================================================================================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/possibly6](https://www.reddit.com/user/possibly6/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/o4jxb3/gme_banks_falling_off_a_cliff_the_movie_stock/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
[DD 👨🔬](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22DD%20%F0%9F%91%A8%E2%80%8D%F0%9F%94%AC%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||
Sup Apes
|
||||
|
||||
Elliot waves guy here doing my best to give you your daily dose of confirmation bias before the market opens!
|
||||
|
||||
Not financial advice, I do unimaginable things with the crayons I get when I ask for a kid's menu at restaurants.
|
||||
|
||||
NON NEGOTIABLE: PLAY THIS AS YOU READ (This song slowly builds, idk the vibes feel right <https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bvBfiRWLj_0>)
|
||||
|
||||
HAPPY FUCKING FATHERS DAY TO ALL YOU PAPA SILVERBACKS OUT THERE!!! If you're drunk from the day's festivities, this read will be even better.
|
||||
|
||||
This might be a shorter post, I don't have too much to say as of yet other than I'm FUCKING JACKED 🚀
|
||||
|
||||
First off, I'm sure you all have seen the posts regarding bank stocks following and how we can potentially use that as a predictive indicator in terms of GME stock price. Great work here if you missed the post: <https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/o42bfm/big_banks_lost_a_lot_of_value_on_january_14th_but/>
|
||||
|
||||
Let's take a look at the banks last week:
|
||||
|
||||
[OOOOF](https://preview.redd.it/vqt6zzy8ji671.png?width=2802&format=png&auto=webp&s=0e482ac603a8601e6d2988e8ac7e1475473c5140)
|
||||
|
||||
This might be one of my favorite screenshots of all time. Let's take a look at the banks back in the middle of january and see if that had any correlation to GME goin bananas at the end of January.
|
||||
|
||||
[death to big banks](https://preview.redd.it/eb9h44rgji671.png?width=2806&format=png&auto=webp&s=d45dcd5616c6db3ab3d85698ad1f65b9c31dc424)
|
||||
|
||||
Given that GME's run peaked in the end of January, the conclusions that I draw from that are the banks hit a low around GME's peak. Granted, there were many outside factors at play back then, so this is all speculative. However, Let's look at GME in january now, pay close attention to the dates on the bottom and compare those to the banks above:
|
||||
|
||||
[squeeze for ants](https://preview.redd.it/jg73y59tji671.png?width=2770&format=png&auto=webp&s=0af347858b726f3fe3104a2339cd794cc2412543)
|
||||
|
||||
just from eyeballing, we can see that the banks seem to find their "bottom" as GME begins to lift off. Does this mean the banks will go to zero before GME squeezes? absolutely not, please don't think that will be the case. HOWEVER, we can assume that the financial sector and GME have some sort of inverse relationship, simply based on the erratic price action between the pairs.
|
||||
|
||||
This time around, I'm expecting banks to continue to fall as GME rises. Can't halt buying this time around!
|
||||
|
||||
I haven't charted out the bank stocks because frankly I don't really care, I want the major banks at 0 personally, wouldn't pay a penny more to hold that garbage (all my homies hate the financials sector)
|
||||
|
||||
Alright, so we can *seemingly* use the falling stock price of banks as a predictive indicator for upwards GME price action. Do note, I didn't conduct any significance tests or anything, this is all simply from comparing candle charts and looking for similarities/differences.
|
||||
|
||||
Speaking of comparing candle charts, something super interesting was brought to my attention in a group discussion, big shoutout to [u/roman_axt](https://www.reddit.com/u/roman_axt/) for the hard work you ultra wrinkly brained primate. Below are images of GME and the movie company, courtesy of [u/roman_axt](https://www.reddit.com/u/roman_axt/) as the arrows are drawn so the smoothest of brains can interpret what tf is going on. Do note, these are from about a week ago, so not all candles are up to date (if it even matters)
|
||||
|
||||
[movie company](https://preview.redd.it/k6na9x1ali671.png?width=1642&format=png&auto=webp&s=b76c79799b8653e2f7a1abd4519511f3ec4de0d9)
|
||||
|
||||
[GME](https://preview.redd.it/vsbpkxlqli671.png?width=1652&format=png&auto=webp&s=968f2fdef4407b30ca589c9c7b6ad887dec9fc4e)
|
||||
|
||||
The reason I bring this up is because some of my friends in the trading world (that only trade off price action mind you, they don't really understand the whole GME saga) noticed this as well. It APPEARS that the movie company and GME not only move in a somewhat similar/predictable pattern, but GME seems to be lagging behind by about 2 or so weeks. Do note, this is just an approximation from eyeballing, please take this all with a grain of salt and remember I am retarded.
|
||||
|
||||
Here is a view sent to me by one of my good friends who noticed the same fishiness occurring (from mobile thinkorswim):
|
||||
|
||||
[moveee stonk](https://preview.redd.it/uq7aosflmi671.png?width=457&format=png&auto=webp&s=a068716cd483c2b6793e4d54d98ed2e1f852c613)
|
||||
|
||||
[gAmEsToNk](https://preview.redd.it/1xw8lktmmi671.png?width=457&format=png&auto=webp&s=ad27d18e0a9739aa32ec178e69b29a6a39f9dc4f)
|
||||
|
||||
now what REALLY has me jacked is the pattern lines up from a few weeks ago, when the movie stock was trading for sub $16/share. It then ran to upwards of 70+. I was able to predict the movie stock's relative high's and low's using EW as well, which I've gotta say is actually super exciting. I own none, BUT it worked on a seemingly "impossible" to time stock. Idk about you, but I don't believe in coincidences.
|
||||
|
||||
Disclaimer, I hodl ZERO of the movie stock, I have always believed it was a distraction. the fact that the media is talking about it should tell you enough.
|
||||
|
||||
Now let's tie this assumption into my GME elliot waves analysis, try not to get too jacked:
|
||||
|
||||
[4hr](https://preview.redd.it/04006jafni671.png?width=2812&format=png&auto=webp&s=eb668952f63ba29226abd0855cbecd476b479466)
|
||||
|
||||
As stated time and time again, we are in a 3 within a 3 within a 3, which is quite literally an elliot wave trader's wet dream. This setup is valid down to about 113, so I wouldn't worry about "is the structure still valid?" yes. yes it is.
|
||||
|
||||
This is literally as bullish a setup you can get, all we need is a match to light the fuse. Our cycle 3 (white line) is targeting at the MINIMUM 440, though I would love to see the 1.618:1 ratio hit, as is most common for wave 3. This puts GME at roughly 582, though remember this is all pre squeeze.
|
||||
|
||||
As always, the motto is simple. Buy hodl, sell for life changing money (not no 10k/share bullshit, 8 figures/share is life changing in my eyes, and that's just my floor).
|
||||
|
||||
I'm not saying we will break into the 400+ range this week by any means, but man the stars are aligning for some crazy shit to go down. I'm fookin jacked m8.
|
||||
|
||||
Lastly, let's take a look at SPY and the VIX, as we can use each as a tool to gauge not only sentiment, but potential fuckery before it happens. In my post regarding the SP500 and GME, I brought up how In the January squeeze, SPY took a fucking HIT as GME broke into the hundreds for the first time ever. Here's my view of SPY:
|
||||
|
||||
[4hr](https://preview.redd.it/tg53oi4ioi671.png?width=2830&format=png&auto=webp&s=fb523f927bed85a65d2e1a43b2b000295e84d8bf)
|
||||
|
||||
NGL, SPY is kind of in no man's land right now. I'll have to see how we open to have a better idea of where it's going. By all means this COULD be the beginning of our long awaited bear market, but it could very well form an impulsive wave 1 to the upside to make for a final push to around 430 before shit hits the fan
|
||||
|
||||
My OWN PERSONAL THESIS is that we will see the markets pumped to valhalla 1 last time to try and draw as many "suckers" in so wall street can offload the bag at the peak. Put yourself in their shoes, seems like a logical play to strike fear into everyone, then prop the markets up a bit longer to make everyone think its okay, then proceed to dump the bag on them
|
||||
|
||||
Lastly, the VIX, the fear/volatility indicator:
|
||||
|
||||
[VIX](https://preview.redd.it/58x900k3pi671.png?width=2802&format=png&auto=webp&s=5ee14be1a71b82ca0ab2cde627b5e47467dad7f5)
|
||||
|
||||
Finished up 16% on friday? spicy. In one of my posts I mentioned how we can use the VIX to gauge when GME will potentially do something erratic. just compare the spikes of the VIX and GME, you'll see there's at least some correlation there. I mean shit, end of january? Clear as kenny's "for sale" sign on his marked down penthouse that he suddenly is in a rush to sell. wonder why? (I think it sold actually lol, even funnier).
|
||||
|
||||
I'm preparing for the best while always expecting the worst. I'm never disappointed this way and always excited, 10/10 would recommend.
|
||||
|
||||
June 30 is the end of the grace period for banks, worth noting. I'm expecting the VIX to FLY when that happens, though again, pure speculation.
|
||||
|
||||
TLDR: worth the read. Banks falling is a potential indicator that GME will do some crazy shit, GME also *appears* to be lagging behind the movie stock. That part is pure speculation, but speculation is part of the fun part no? (Sorry the song doesn't fit perfectly, you'd be surprised how much time i spend trying to link a fitting song lol. as long as you're jacked, i consider this a job well done)
|
||||
|
||||
Now Imma go get high af so I'm well rested for MONDAY🚀 🚀 🚀
|
||||
|
||||
edit: funny story cause y'all are fam, I went to the porsche dealer yesterday to test drive my post-moass whip, and the salesman googled me before I came in to make sure I wasn't some degenerate looking to crash their pristine GT4. I get there, and the salesman said he googled me and knew me as the elliot wave guy. Simulation confirmed. during the drive we talked about trading, I showed him my wave count, hopefully he got some GME. idk, random. Thought I'd share cause I thought it's a nice story. This movement is bigger than we can comprehend. EW guy is in the bio of my socials, so he put 2 and 2 together after googling my real name.
|
||||
|
||||
Edit 2: proof I went and they let me drive the gt4: <https://imgur.com/a/uzTn3OR>
|
@ -0,0 +1,145 @@
|
||||
Wait... Is NSCC-002 about to turn the T+21/T+35 loop into a death spiral of T+0 as we approach Q2 end?
|
||||
======================================================================================================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/Criand](https://www.reddit.com/user/Criand/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/o5ingt/wait_is_nscc002_about_to_turn_the_t21t35_loop/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
[Possible DD 👨🔬](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22Possible%20DD%20%F0%9F%91%A8%E2%80%8D%F0%9F%94%AC%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||
0\. Preface
|
||||
|
||||
I am not a financial advisor. I do not provide financial advice. Many thoughts here are my opinion, and others can be speculative.
|
||||
|
||||
So, NSCC-002 just got approved, along with NSCC-801 for one-hour margin calls. Not only did it get approved, it got accelerated approval and will be in effect Wednesday, June 23rd.
|
||||
|
||||
This got me JACKED. But of course don't get too hyped just because of me. It could all be a nothing burger in the end. But, there's some crazy shit going down that I think is telling of what is about to come.
|
||||
|
||||
There's also comments of "these rules mean nothing until they are enforced". Yes, I agree. But, consider the fact that the NSCC, ICC, OCC, DTC have all been drafting up rules to protect themselves in the event of member defaults and extreme market stress. They aren't just drafting these up to say, "Meh. Nevermind". The NSCC, ICC, OCC, DTC are full of members who are NOT short on GameStop or other positions that put these entities at risk. The other members have influence and do not want to be dragged down either. It's a battle of survival.
|
||||
|
||||
I also apologize if anyone has already posted about this. I do know that [/u/dentisttft](https://www.reddit.com/u/dentisttft/) had identified these SLD periods in their post about T+35 when tying in the spikes of price! Such a smart ape! I'm going to expand on their post here, identifying the importance of NSCC-002 to the theory.
|
||||
|
||||
A comment by [/u/minnowstogetherstonk](https://www.reddit.com/u/minnowstogetherstonk/) also encouraged this discussion, first identifying [that T+35/T+21 could turn into T+0 that feeds on itself.](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/o4y2so/nscc2021002_approved_with_partial_amendments/h2k0os3?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3) If this is what is about to happen... genius ape!
|
||||
|
||||
I personally think that NSCC-002 will trigger a death-spiral for SHFs as we approach Q2 end, and shit is about to hit the fan across all markets.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/q1te0jsbzr671.png?width=1686&format=png&auto=webp&s=4407f66bc6efcdd10e5d6323bea7bc2611371385)
|
||||
|
||||
Awww shit
|
||||
|
||||
1\. NSCC-002 And It's Effects On Liquidity Deposits
|
||||
|
||||
Note: Like I said above, this is expanding off of [/u/dentisttft](https://www.reddit.com/u/dentisttft/)'s post of T+35 found here: [T+35 Is The One True Cycle](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/o155a6/t35_is_the_one_true_cycle_evidence_to_back_my/). It visually showed the NSCC liquidity cycle times and the effects it had on FTDs, which never really clicked until thinking about NSCC-002 a bit more. Give their post a read! :)
|
||||
|
||||
Something big to remember is that NSCC-801 now goes into effect along with NSCC-002, which allows for one-hour margin calls. This means that when a member does not have sufficient liquidity, they will be asked to post it within one hour to the NSCC. If they do not post the liquidity, then the member defaults. And thus, the snappening begins.
|
||||
|
||||
Let's investigate the most important bits of NSCC-002. First, a glance at what the rules used to be and the NSCC's concern driving the rule change**:**
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/yjhyg0vrzr671.png?width=793&format=png&auto=webp&s=1c593670c431dca25f897bf1ffa26197b3b60fc9)
|
||||
|
||||
NSCC-002 Part 1; Old Liquidity Requirements
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/k7sfq4iszr671.png?width=784&format=png&auto=webp&s=61deac31a63ecb823c3ea5939792043b2b890a87)
|
||||
|
||||
NSCC-002 Part 2; Old Liquidity Requirements
|
||||
|
||||
Prior to this rule change, the NSCC would collect liquidity deposits only during Monthly Options expiry periods. What is a monthly option? It is the third Friday of each month:
|
||||
|
||||
- January 15
|
||||
|
||||
- February 19
|
||||
|
||||
- March 19
|
||||
|
||||
- April 16
|
||||
|
||||
- May 21
|
||||
|
||||
- June 18
|
||||
|
||||
- July 16
|
||||
|
||||
- Etc.
|
||||
|
||||
The NSCC realized that shit could get really wonky between those liquidity periods of the monthly options. These volatile movements in the markets would put the NSCC itself at risk due to some of its members positions. So, they decided to draft up this rule which allowed them to not only grab liquidity around monthly options, but to be able to ask for more liquidity on a daily basis. This allows the NSCC to take hold of volatility and say, "enough is enough, you're done for".
|
||||
|
||||
Now, check this out:
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/754z0dte1s671.png?width=799&format=png&auto=webp&s=736bb773f6515211f916788f10fe1ba914c1569c)
|
||||
|
||||
NSCC-002 Part 2; New Liquidity Requirements
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/wp8f279f1s671.png?width=741&format=png&auto=webp&s=cae04b68606972c68160dc782ad61d53a9bbac03)
|
||||
|
||||
NSCC-002 Part 2; New Liquidity Requirements
|
||||
|
||||
The NSCC defined a period of grabbing liquidity and holding it to be 2 business days prior to monthly expiration, and ending 7 days after monthly expiration. From the dates listed above, this gives you the following time periods of liquidity deposits for monthly expirations:
|
||||
|
||||
| Monthly Option Date | Liquidity Deposit Given By Member To NSCC | Liquidity Deposit Returned To Member From NSCC |
|
||||
| --- | --- | --- |
|
||||
| January 15 | January 13 | January 27 |
|
||||
| February 19 | February 17 | March 2 |
|
||||
| March 19 | March 17 | March 30 |
|
||||
| April 16 | April 14 | April 27 |
|
||||
| May 21 | May 19 | June 2 |
|
||||
| June 18 | June 16 | June 29 |
|
||||
|
||||
And if you remember from [/u/dentisttft](https://www.reddit.com/u/dentisttft/)'s posts, these periods all contain the T+21/T+35 dates of January 25, February 24, March 25, April 26, May 25, and June 24. So it appears that, as [/u/dentisttft](https://www.reddit.com/u/dentisttft/) concluded, that they struggle with liquidity during these time periods of FTD deliveries and the price gets much greater upward momentum.
|
||||
|
||||
Going back to the images above of NSCC-002... notice that in the old rule that the amount of liquidity that needed to be posted for monthly expirations was based on settlement activity of the prior 24 months. That's a lot of leeway on how much liquidity is needed per member as it was not checking real-time data.
|
||||
|
||||
NOW... the NSCC is changing it to a daily calculation. It's no longer a one-and-done deal of the monthly liquidity based on the prior 24 months. It is going to be based on a constant check of real-time data. This can shift the total liquidity required from the previous rule up significantly, mainly because it is no longer based on the prior 24 months of settlement activity.
|
||||
|
||||
2\. T+21/T+35 Loop Turns Into A T+0 Death Spiral
|
||||
|
||||
Remember how shit went absolutely wild around March 10th? That was outside of a liquidity deposit phase. And then, the price was tanked and brought down severely JUST BEFORE the next liquidity deposit was required.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/yv2xmolw2s671.png?width=251&format=png&auto=webp&s=972401702a7cdee5648397fb0a827f137d3c1902)
|
||||
|
||||
GME Price Action Prior To Next Liquidity Requirement
|
||||
|
||||
In fact, something curious is that the price has never been above $228 entering the next liquidity posting date, and has never been above $300 during these liquidity dates. Hmmm? Margin call price could be dangerously close. And with NSCC-002/801, it can absolutely screw the SHFs.
|
||||
|
||||
What does this all mean in the end? Well, it can turn the T+21/T+35 loop into a T+0 death spiral.
|
||||
|
||||
They used to have to post liquidity two days prior to the monthly options. But now, the NSCC has the discretion to ask for MORE liquidity at ANY time based on daily movements of prices. The previous liquidity posting was a one-and-done deal instead of a liquidity requirement that would constantly update every day of the year. And if they fail these new liquidity checks? One. Hour. Margin calls.
|
||||
|
||||
Here's a figure based on [/u/dentisttft](https://www.reddit.com/u/dentisttft/)'s liquidity deposit phases identifying what could happen starting Wednesday, June 23rd:
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/ebuouwrl4s671.png?width=1536&format=png&auto=webp&s=adb54e7938d647d2f1d43f1b9ccbaeeac3701cad)
|
||||
|
||||
GME Price Action And Liquidity Deposit Phases
|
||||
|
||||
This could very well be why they are trying to obliterate the price at the moment.
|
||||
|
||||
The next FTD spike can cause the price to absolutely soar into a price range which requires more liquidity, making it harder for them to suppress the price, and pushing GME more towards the margin call price. Which then feeds on itself requiring more liquidity, and it continues on an absolute death spiral.
|
||||
|
||||
Which can then lead to this:
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/emkfeo659s671.png?width=1536&format=png&auto=webp&s=a1459a1ed24e63e7193930567c2dbcd1c4917884)
|
||||
|
||||
Happy GME TA
|
||||
|
||||
2\. Urgency to Approve NSCC-002; Quarter End Of June 30th; Meeting Between Biden, Powell, Yellen, Gensler
|
||||
|
||||
Guess what? The 2008 crash "started" around the end of Q3 with the collapse of Lehman Bros on September 15, 2008. End of quarters are when the system gets really strained due to the underlying plumbing of the markets and the necessity to pump balance sheets.
|
||||
|
||||
> Banks' "reporting" dates are known inflection points in the short-term funding markets and typically fall at the end of the month, quarter, and of course the year. But periodically, the 15th of the month is also a pressure point. - [Source](https://blog.pimco.com/en/2019/09/repo-rate-spike-a-tail-of-low-liquidity)
|
||||
|
||||
Fast forward to when the Fed attempted to reverse QE. A year after performing QT (reverse of QE), the repo market blew up to 10% interest on September 15, 2019 due to way way way too many loans that had to be handled. You can see how strain on the markets starts to amplify around particular dates of Quarter-ends and occasionally the 15th of months.
|
||||
|
||||
We're approaching the end of Q2 which is June 30th. Hm. Quarter end?! Sound familiar? 👀
|
||||
|
||||
The NSCC-002/801 is having accelerated effectiveness. There is huuuge urgency to get this passed for margin requirements and margin calling members. Why would they be pushing this to get it out the door? I think shits about to hit the fan. They NEED to protect themselves.
|
||||
|
||||
Something else to note is that Biden, Yellen, Gensler, and Powell all met for "Climate Change" discussions today.
|
||||
|
||||
> "The regulators reported that the financial system is in strong condition," the White House said in a readout of the meeting. - [Source](https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2021/06/21/joe-biden-live-updates/)
|
||||
|
||||
That's the entire context of the quote. That the financial system is "in strong condition". What are they actually doing at this meeting? Something similar to discussing letting X Y and Z fail just like they discussed letting Lehman Bros fail in 2008?
|
||||
|
||||
The [Jungle Beat Monday Post](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/o54hl2/the_jungle_beat_monday_06212021/) talked about this very briefly and it was something I latched onto immediately. I remembered [the meeting for 2008](https://www.cnbc.com/2018/09/12/bernanke-paulson-and-geithner-say-they-bailed-out-wall-street-to-help-main-street.html) but did not connect the dots to this meeting between Biden, Powell, Yellen, and Gensler possibly being similar in scope.
|
||||
|
||||
Wild times we live in. But remember - don't fuckin' dance.
|
@ -0,0 +1,56 @@
|
||||
The NYSE threshold list: collapsing shorts and launching the MOASS
|
||||
==================================================================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/Bladeace](https://www.reddit.com/user/Bladeace/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/oao9oo/the_nyse_threshold_list_collapsing_shorts_and/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
[DD 👨🔬](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22DD%20%F0%9F%91%A8%E2%80%8D%F0%9F%94%AC%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||
TA;DR: threshold list killed small shorts in January. Big shorts took on their positions. Threshold list restrictions coming for big shorts too. Watch for GME being added to the threshold list.
|
||||
|
||||
TL;DR: restrictions associated with extended periods of failures to deliver inform the past six months of GME shenanigans. These restrictions killed the small players who were short GME in January and allowed big players to take on their position. Big players assumed they could use their powers and resources to turn this losing hand into a big win. Apes stopped them. Now, finally, the big players are going to find these same restrictions applied to them - watch for GME being added to the threshold list.
|
||||
|
||||
Background
|
||||
|
||||
The New York Stock Exchange provides a list of 'threshold securities', which are securities that are regarded as difficult to borrow due to a large number of recent failures to deliver. When a security is on this list, there are limits on a market maker's ability to short sell the security in question and obligations regarding delivery requirements. These restrictions and obligations can increase the longer the security stays on the list. For further information and some relevant links, please see [this comment](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/o9x3hf/guys_before_you_downvote_this_to_hell_bc_its_not/h3e1asv?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3) by [u/Cirand](https://www.reddit.com/u/Cirand/). There is currently some discussion of this topic because moviestock has been added to the threshold list recently, [this post](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/o9x3hf/guys_before_you_downvote_this_to_hell_bc_its_not/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3) by [u/OrwellsWarning](https://www.reddit.com/u/OrwellsWarning/) presents tweets by [u/dlauer](https://www.reddit.com/u/dlauer/) and Susanne Trimbath which is a good place to look for discussion of the significance of the threshold list (see the comments).
|
||||
|
||||
In short, the ability to perform fucketry is diminished when a security is on the threshold list. /udlauer tweets that it might be unusual for companies like GME to make it onto this list (usually it's small companies). [This rather underappreciated post](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/oadcb3/i_made_these_charts_illustrating_occurrences_of/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3) by [u/mlebjerg](https://www.reddit.com/u/mlebjerg/) provides graphs of the price of moviestock and GME in relation to their being on the threshold list. Notice that the price of moviestock does not appear to be related to their being on the threshold list. Neither does the price of GME, with a notable exception.
|
||||
|
||||
Key point
|
||||
|
||||
Given the restrictions that come with being on the threshold list and its relationship with the historical prices of the two securities, I suspect the effect of being on the threshold list do not translate to price changes until the security has been on the list for long enough to compromise the ability of those with short positions to manipulate the price. On the below graph I compare the price of GME with the number of concurrent days it has been on the threshold list:
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/yfmbrye3lb871.png?width=685&format=png&auto=webp&s=c28e1c25971667b38fc8717aba790de881771e86)
|
||||
|
||||
From the end of December 2020 and into the beginning of February 2021 GME was on the threshold list for 39 market days. I believe that this answers an important question that has been outstanding since February: it explains why they needed to resort to a market halt to stop the January spike but not the February gamma.
|
||||
|
||||
The difference between January and February
|
||||
|
||||
In [this post](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/mvvuhp/feb_2426_failed_launch_attempt_and_proof_the_dtcc/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3) from April I argue that the unusual market activity during February, the 'gamma swarm' or 'gamma squeeze', was an attempt to launch the MOASS that failed due to those shorting GME flooding the market with ever more short positions, which mitigated attempts to rapidly rise the price. In [this post](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nc1h4o/findings_from_my_analysis_of_605_data_huge_short/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3) from May I argue that the changes in order flow indicate that the market center Citadel Securities was used to open a large short position in January and the NASDAQ market center was used to manipulate the price in February. These two arguments leave an unanswered question: if the spike in February was prevented by manipulation involving inter-market-center fucketry, why did they need to resort to a trading halt to prevent the January spike?
|
||||
|
||||
I think the threshold list answers that question: trading was halted in January because GME had been on the threshold list for weeks prior to the spike, which prevented the other methods of price restricting manipulation available to those shorting GME. After weeks on the threshold list, and in the face of massive buying pressure, they had no winning play left - so they halted trading. I suspect that, with trading halted, they then brought the minimum number of GME shares required to cover the outstanding failures to deliver which then removed GME from the threshold list. I expect that this actually left them with *an even bigger* outstanding short position, considering how much it would have expanded during the January spike: they opened a bigger position due tomorrow, to close the positions keeping GME on the list today. I think this led to the game they've been playing since February.
|
||||
|
||||
The story so far
|
||||
|
||||
Notice that GME has not returned to the threshold list since early February. I think that this is because the parties shorting GME since then have been more competent, better resourced, and more powerful. I suspect that GME went onto the threshold list in December 2020 because a smaller player, perhaps Melvin Capital, was failing to cover or defer their short positions. Ultimately, this led to the January spike and a more powerful institution capable of the manipulation required to stop the spike stepping in. Essentially, I think at least one smaller player who was short GME collapsed in December and January which undermined the ability of the larger players to control the situation. In response, I suspect that the larger players with market maker privileges and influence over market centers took over these collapsing players.
|
||||
|
||||
This is why I think that the short position was *expanded* in January even though I also think some positions were covered. As I discuss [in my post regarding the 605](https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/comments/nc2zcc/findings_from_my_analysis_of_605_data_huge_short/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3) data (also linked earlier, the may post), it appears that the market center Citadel Securities was used to expand a short position during the January spike. Notice that the restrictions associated with a security being on the threshold list are not applied to all parties equally. This is how shorting took place in January, despite GME having been on the list for weeks - it was one of the smaller players failing to deliver that got GME on the list, so the big players were not suffering all of the related restrictions (especially those with influence over their own market center). I suspect that the short position was expanded dramatically in the leadup to the January spike and then, after the trading halt, the *oldest positions* were covered to resolve those failures to deliver that were keeping GME on the threshold list. In this manner, the short position was moved from small players to the big ones and the overall short position expanded while the reported short position lowered substantially.
|
||||
|
||||
With their short position bigger than ever, I suspect that they attempted to crash the price in February to convince everyone that it's time to sell their GME shares. At this point, their position is likely looking quite strong - the short positions opened in January were at a high price per share, which means they've received more money from buyers than the current share price. So, on paper anway, they are in a strong position - yes, they owe an insane amount of GME shares, but the price of GME is now much lower. As long as they can *eventually* convince everyone this is over, they'll likely come out of this stronger than ever. If they can keep issuing more short positions that they eventually cover at a much lower price, after shareholders give up and move on, they'll actually have profited over this debacle and gobbled up smaller players. Provided the apes stop buying and move on, they've turned an infinite loss position into a huge win. Masterstroke.
|
||||
|
||||
This is a bold plan, it will turn a massive loss into a huge win. So, they go all in and do an excellent job of it. The trading halt works by allowing them to consolidate the short positions into only those players big enough to pull this strategy off. Expanding the short position provides an influx of cash from buyers. Further shorting after the trading halt drops the price in early February. The political fallout allows them to announce very publicly that they've closed their positions. The media narrative fits perfectly to what they need to portray. For the first few weeks of February, it's working.
|
||||
|
||||
Except, it doesn't work. It's an excellent play and they executed it well. Regardless, two factors prevent their success. Firstly, millions of weirdos from the internet appear to have disregarded all traditionally authoritative sources of information and keep buying more shares. Given the complete lack of any evidence to justify this behaviour, it's understandable that this caught the shorts off guard. At this point, it's too late - they're beyond fully committed to this play, they've gambled everything they have and the health of the entire financial markets on this. So, they do what they can to undermine this bizarre online resistance. Unfortunately, for them, they are also facing resistance from other big players who, for whatever reason, are not willing to allow them this victory. This resistance from other big players comes in the form of the February gamma, which attempts to launch the squeeze that was prevented with the trading halt ([link to my April post on this](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/mvvuhp/feb_2426_failed_launch_attempt_and_proof_the_dtcc/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3), also linked earlier).
|
||||
|
||||
This sets the stage for everything that follows, March onwards. In January and early February the shorts win the battles. Smaller players die and cause a massive mess, but this allows the big-shorts to take over their positions and expand their short positions at a favorable price point while doing so. They gamble on an extreme play, a trading halt, to crash the price and it works. However, Apes pervert their attempts to motivate selloffs and realize they are being targeted with misinformation - so, they gather together to defend themselves. Ultimately, this becomes [r/SuperStonk](https://www.reddit.com/r/SuperStonk/). Other big players, perhaps fearing what the big-shorts have become and are doing, instigate the February gamma which reverses a large portion of the price crash and exposes the ongoing manipulation. As February draws to a close, the gamma has failed to launch the rocket and the Apes have only a vague understanding of what is happening. It's a stalemate.
|
||||
|
||||
I think the battles fought in January and February have informed everything that followed. The big players short GME have used their power, influence, and resources to avoid any further restrictions on their GME activities. The big players opposing them have done what they can, but can't launch the rocket. Apes' might be described as the wildcard, but I think they're better understood as the battleground. As the months drag on, they grow in sophistication, numbers, and power. Six months into this mess, they're the ones holding the winning hand. It's the Apes' whose shares need to be brought: the shorts always needed retail shares, but after six months of endless shorting they now need *a lot* of retail shares and, much worse, the retail holders know it.
|
||||
|
||||
If my outline, story I guess, is correct, then the outcome is inevitable. At least, assuming Apes hold. Eventually, especially in the face of tightening restrictions, GME is going to end up back on that threshold list. Once it does, the powers and privileges allowing those short GME to fight will be steadily stripped away until they can't do anything except watch as their obligations to the NSCC kick in and the attempt to close the infinite loss position they have burdened their peers with begins. I suspect this is why the new restrictions are finishing off with 'rules clarifications' that limit rehypothecation and prevent a borrowed share from being used to 'deliver' an earlier position. Once the failures to deliver can no longer be hidden, GME is going to end up back on that threshold list. Once it's there, those with outstanding failures to deliver will have their ability to short GME restricted and the big-shorts will be caught in the same trap they 'saved' the little shorts from in January.
|
||||
|
||||
Finally, please note a recent by [u/Feeling_Point_5978](https://www.reddit.com/u/Feeling_Point_5978/) yesterday (I can't link, it's on a different subreddit) for discussion of this in the context of Moviestock. For what it's worth, I think that Moviestock is our canary in the coal mines on this issue. I suspect that the new restrictions, finally in effect from last week, will result in the failures to deliver GME to being piling up quite soon. If this happens, expect to see GME on the threshold list soon after. Once it's there, the restrictions escalate until it's off the list. I suspect that there is only one way GME is getting off that list once it's back on it, and that's the MOASS.
|
||||
|
||||
(Please note that my incompetence limits the reliability of any of the above. I argue, think, and suspect many things; my saying it doesn't mean much regardless of how I phrase it - read with caution!)
|
@ -0,0 +1,30 @@
|
||||
Holy shit, THOSE MOTHER FUCKERS. thesis 2.0: RRP is the reason there has been no big boy margin call liquidations in the states. US T Bonds are considered collateral, its funding rehypothication, allows dividends, and finally institutions are able to circle jerk each other ETFs as their holdings.
|
||||
=========================================================================================================================================================================================================================================================================================================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/A_KY_gardener](https://www.reddit.com/user/A_KY_gardener/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/oab880/holy_shit_those_mother_fuckers_thesis_20_rrp_is/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
[Discussion 🦍](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22Discussion%20%F0%9F%A6%8D%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||

|
||||
|
||||

|
||||
|
||||

|
||||
|
||||

|
||||
|
||||

|
||||
|
||||

|
||||
|
||||

|
||||
|
||||
|
||||
|
||||
|
||||
|
||||
|
@ -0,0 +1,51 @@
|
||||
Hank's thot experiment
|
||||
======================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/HomeDepotHank69](https://www.reddit.com/user/HomeDepotHank69/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/oay9vr/hanks_thot_experiment/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
[Discussion 🦍](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22Discussion%20%F0%9F%A6%8D%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||
******** I am not a financial advisor, this is not financial advice *********
|
||||
|
||||
Hey everyone thanks for reading my post yesterday. I'm still on a break from making big DDs (unless I stumble upon something major that warrants immediate attention), but in the mean time I wanted to create a dialogue, a thought experiment if you will.
|
||||
|
||||
The point of this post is simply to create a discussion in the comments that will serve as ideas for future DDs for myself and other wrinkles as well as to generally facilitate a discussion.
|
||||
|
||||
Here are my discussion questions:
|
||||
|
||||
GENERAL QUESTIONS:
|
||||
|
||||
In your opinion, what is the most likely trajectory of GME (i.e. if you had to predict what it will do for the next few months, what would you say)?
|
||||
|
||||
```
|
||||
What other scenarios could you see?
|
||||
|
||||
```
|
||||
|
||||
What topics do you want to see wrinkles make DDs about?
|
||||
|
||||
What are the biggest weaknesses in the body of content of our current DD (i.e. what topics do we need to focus on because they are weaker)?
|
||||
|
||||
What is the weakest part of the general theory of GME? What is the strongest?
|
||||
|
||||
SPECIFIC QUESTIONS:
|
||||
|
||||
Even if the FTD cycle theory is incorrect, it's still true that each cycle, the floor/support increases, which means that the price has increased steadily since February. However, as we all know, volume has been absolutely horrible -- pathetic. In a normal stock, this increase would be called a nonvolume supported trend; however, I think most of us believe this is happening because apes are holding, so the volume is just day traders and the HFs have moved buying volume into OTC trades. With that in mind, let's say that volume continues to decrease. If volume continues to decrease, assuming nothing material changes about GME, what do you think is the most likely trajectory (i.e. is there a point we could get to where volume would be miniscule or close to zero and if so what would do you think will happen)?
|
||||
|
||||
The $350 level seems to be significant. The previous two times we got near it, we were BRUTALLY rejected and saw HUGE downtrends. The only time we got over it was January, when the market literally shut down buying. With that in mind, what is your take on the significance of this level? Is there a method we could use to reverse engineer it to try to find SI? What would you like to see us focus on with DD here?
|
||||
|
||||
Do you think the MOASS will happen sooner (let's say before the end of August) or later and why?
|
||||
|
||||
Many of you probably saw my last post where I used data from the absolute beauties that are our quants to determine that the "meme stocks" are correlated. My thoughts were that it indicated that institutions took large short positions on them all at the same time. What are your thoughts? Why do you think all of these stocks have been following similar patterns? IMO I don't think retail is behind it because it's impossible for a nonorganized/noncorrdinated group to make multiple stocks behave the same way for months. Though we undoubtedly have power, we can't coordinate like HFs, so I don't think that retail just randomly decided to buy and sell all of these at the same time? What do you think?
|
||||
|
||||
What do you think about GME and coin (can't say because of automod)? I've documented the FTD cycle connection and how it might be used for covering, but what do you think?
|
||||
|
||||
We all thought that RC being named board lord would be the "catalyst" causing the MOASS, but GME has reacted inconsistently to catalysts. Do you think catalysts have are relevant anymore? Do you think a catalyst will cause the MOASS or do you think it will be random like January?
|
||||
|
||||
Finally, I expect this post to get a fair amount of activity, so if you have anything interesting to say or ask that I didn't cover above please put it below!
|
||||
|
||||
******** I am not a financial advisor, this is not financial advice *********
|
@ -0,0 +1,46 @@
|
||||
The Final Battle
|
||||
================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/thomas798354](https://www.reddit.com/user/thomas798354/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/DDintoGME/comments/oar709/the_final_battle/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
[𝗦𝗽𝗲𝗰𝘂𝗹𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻](https://www.reddit.com/r/DDintoGME/search?q=flair_name%3A%22%F0%9D%97%A6%F0%9D%97%BD%F0%9D%97%B2%F0%9D%97%B0%F0%9D%98%82%F0%9D%97%B9%F0%9D%97%AE%F0%9D%98%81%F0%9D%97%B6%F0%9D%97%BC%F0%9D%97%BB%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||
Apes as I see my fellow comrades disappointed on the battlefield I began to go back to my drawing board and think tactfully as how I would wargame from Citadel's point of view. I realize a lot of you are mad about T+21 and I must really have supporting documents this time so I will proceed slowly with lots of quotes and rule references, I invite anyone to politely cite their opinion.
|
||||
|
||||
TLDR; Citadel used the OTM options locates one last time to the extreme before 005 came into effect to try and buy back shares at the lowest price possible. Hold the Stock, don't fall for the other baited plays coming up, and be patient apes. Short squeezes will be a thing of the past after this. 005 will hopefully stop locates in options chains and also prevent a lent shares from being rehypothecated and leant to someone else. We could see the borrow time reduced to a maximum of T+6.
|
||||
|
||||
REG SHO 101-
|
||||
|
||||
Rule 203: Locate requirement- *Locate Requirement*. Regulation SHO requires a broker-dealer to have reasonable grounds to believe that the security can be borrowed so that it can be delivered on the date delivery is due before effecting a short sale order in any equity security.[[7]](https://www.sec.gov/investor/pubs/regsho.htm#_ftn7) This "locate" must be made and documented prior to effecting the short sale.
|
||||
|
||||
Rule 204: *Close-out Requirement*. Rule 204 requires brokers and dealers that are participants of a registered clearing agency[[8]](https://www.sec.gov/investor/pubs/regsho.htm#_ftn8) to take action to close out failure to deliver positions. Closing out requires the broker or dealer to purchase or borrow securities of like kind and quantity. The participant must close out a failure to deliver for a short sale transaction by no later than the beginning of regular trading hours on the settlement day following the settlement date, referred to as T+4. If a participant has a failure to deliver that the participant can demonstrate on its books and records resulted from a long sale, or that is attributable to bona fide market making activities, the participant must close out the failure to deliver by no later than the beginning of regular trading hours on the third consecutive settlement day following the settlement date, referred to as T+6. If the position is not closed out, the broker or dealer and any broker or dealer for which it clears transactions (for example, an introducing broker)[[9]](https://www.sec.gov/investor/pubs/regsho.htm#_ftn9) may not effect further short sales in that security without borrowing or entering into a bona fide agreement to borrow the security (known as the "pre-borrowing" requirement) until the broker or dealer purchases shares to close out the position and the purchase clears and settles. In addition, Rule 203(b)(3) of Regulation SHO requires that participants of a registered clearing agency must immediately purchase shares to close out failures to deliver in securities with large and persistent failures to deliver, referred to as "threshold securities," if the failures to deliver persist for 13 consecutive settlement days.[[10]](https://www.sec.gov/investor/pubs/regsho.htm#_ftn10) Threshold securities are equity securities[[11]](https://www.sec.gov/investor/pubs/regsho.htm#_ftn11) that have an aggregate fail to deliver position for five consecutive settlement days at a registered clearing agency (e.g., National Securities Clearing Corporation (NSCC)); totaling 10,000 shares or more; and equal to at least 0.5% of the issuer's total shares outstanding. As provided in Rule 203 of Regulation SHO, threshold securities are included on a list disseminated by a self-regulatory organization ("SRO"). Although as a result of compliance with Rule 204, generally a participant's fail to deliver positions will not remain for 13 consecutive settlement days, if, for whatever reason, a participant of a registered clearing agency has a fail to deliver position at a registered clearing agency in a threshold security for 13 consecutive settlement days, the requirement to close-out such position under Rule 203(b)(3) remains in effect.
|
||||
|
||||
Rule 204 Exception: Rule 204 provides an extended period of time to close out certain failures to deliver. Specifically, if a failure to deliver position results from the sale of a security that a person is deemed to own and that such person intends to deliver as soon as all restrictions on delivery have been removed, the firm has up to 35 calendar days following the trade date to close out the failure to deliver position by purchasing securities of like kind and quantity.
|
||||
|
||||
Okay lets start with what is happening, since before January the SHF (short Hedge Funds) realized that they couldn't bankrupt GME anymore. Their new goal is to get the price to be as low as possible before they cover due to almost all the Hedge Funds short already being at 49% losses or more. In 2019, before they were going to short GME to death they wanted to profit off of the derivatives market and placed puts on Jan 15th a huge options date that could have been bet on years out. At T+3 we saw a big run up Jan 22 from T+4 opened 42$ closed 65$ running to 96$ before premarket. The next day, T+5 was trash it opened at 96$ and closed at 76.79$ (not special). This was followed with T+6 where the latest date to close was opened at 88.56 and closed at 147.98 after markets running to 354.83. May 21 lead to May 26/27 and June 1/2 T+3, T+6 sometimes the deliveries catch up after market and premarket.
|
||||
|
||||
Time to start explaining my little working theory. I am now a hedge fund, come join me in shorting GME (theoretically). So imagine this, we want to short the crap out of GME in a few different ways. Everyday downwards pressure to suppress price, and once a month we want to unload to spike it down. In order to short GME we must first find a broker willing to lend us shares, but this provides us with a problem because we don't own these shares we have to return them in T+3 or T+6. If we provide the locate for these shares meaning we own them or a security that is "like" them then we fall under the exception.
|
||||
|
||||
Let me paint a picture for you, June 2 closed high from the T+6 from May. June 4th I was eating a protein bar on a ruck march thinking about how fucked the HF were when I saw SSR for AMC and GME.....Then the SHF borrow shares 3 & 4 June to short and replace them T+3 which was June 8/9 the SSR was because the HF borrowed all the shares possible from the brokers and ETFs. We are hype going into the shareholder meeting, so hype about 350$ no one is questioning why the SHF bought so many OTM options on July 16th. The HF loaded their short cannons with locates for the earnings report meaning they could short shares as much as possible with their locates at close to 85M total shares in JULY-JAN2022 options chain.
|
||||
|
||||
"If a failure to deliver position results from the sale of a security that a person is deemed to own and that such person intends to deliver", "the firm has up to 35 calendar days following the trade date to close out the failure to deliver position by purchasing securities of like kind and quantity." Funny how they shorted the crap out of GME June 10th and 35 calendar days is July 15th, the day prior to their options expiring.
|
||||
|
||||
Let me show you what this looks like from the round table at citadel securities:
|
||||
|
||||
Hey Ken, I can't buy you anymore time over at DTCC. I have to pass 005 but I can make sure we file it June 24 and that it doesn't get sent to the federal register until June 30th. This buys you enough time to trick them with a T+3 borrow and a massive located short sale during a share offering, not to mention their disappointment that the new rules don't work at all. The short will cause apes to lose faith when 30% of the value disappears, and the only risk is that if you cant get the price low enough to cover under 350$ before July 16th. We lose anyways because 005 is in effect and July 16th will have T+3, T+6 buys when those OTM locates expire and cannot be kicked. To make matters worse the ETFs cannot help them anymore, the Russel 1k has even less shares to borrow. This is the last ditch effort to get the price down before they have to cover. Simultaneously they are attacking us with all of these "buy this instead" plays while GME sits idle and loses value, look at the threshold securities list! Half the people hyping it don't even know wtf it means.
|
||||
|
||||
Remember the DFV tweet from Ready Player One, sometimes we must go backwards to win the race. Remember the latest cohen tweet with the fart alluding to the south park movie where kenny watches Terrance and Phillip in the movie theater and lights his own fart on fire, then he dies by getting dumped on by a "russell's" salt truck.
|
||||
|
||||
[I'm not making this up](https://preview.redd.it/thwgb9sjic871.png?width=926&format=png&auto=webp&s=a33017b3e7998cdb02a1f66fdabda05cce27fca2)
|
||||
|
||||
Threshold Securities List- Threshold securities are equity securities[[11]](https://www.sec.gov/investor/pubs/regsho.htm#_ftn11) that have an aggregate fail to deliver position for five consecutive settlement days at a registered clearing agency (e.g., National Securities Clearing Corporation (NSCC)); totaling 10,000 shares or more; and equal to at least 0.5% of the issuer's total shares outstanding. Let me show you how easy this is to do with large float stocks for insert example stock...... borrow 500M*.005 shares= 2.5M and then don't return them.
|
||||
|
||||
That's it! That's all they have to do borrow less than 1% of the float and not return it.
|
||||
|
||||
Edit: Let me explain why I don't think net settlement is a big deal, these bad guys have an unfathomable amount of money. I highly doubt someone that controls 30% of all trading is going to go bankrupt over a single security guys. These little HFs have been going bankrupt, they have. Look at Melvin, archegos, greensill, GFG, the new one out of London. They are feeling the heat, one by one they have been failing. Getting these giant bosses to fail is a completely different story, as much as we want to see these giant ones fall it's most likely not going to happen. They will survive with bailouts, tricks, illegal trading, whatever the reason may be. Make no mistake however this is a financial revolution and we got what we wanted. These rules that are put in place will stop them from doing what they have been doing under REG SHO. Will they take a big hit at the end of the day? Yes, will they all die? No, did we change the way the game is played? Certainly. They paid to take over Reddit nuff said.
|
||||
|
||||
Just buy and hold GME. Our time is coming.
|
@ -0,0 +1,46 @@
|
||||
Simple FTD math based on u/ChrisCraftTexasUSA post... GME appears to only have about 30 times more FTDs than TSLA... Just...
|
||||
============================================================================================================================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/taranasus](https://www.reddit.com/user/taranasus/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/obh3z3/simple_ftd_math_based_on_uchriscrafttexasusa_post/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
[Possible DD 👨🔬](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22Possible%20DD%20%F0%9F%91%A8%E2%80%8D%F0%9F%94%AC%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||
The starting point of my maths: [(1) GME FTD shares Failed to Deliver SEC link: https://sec.report/fails.php?tc=36467W109 : Superstonk (reddit.com)](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/obet09/gme_ftd_shares_failed_to_deliver_sec_link/)
|
||||
|
||||
I think "FUCK ME" is an understatement here. I've been comparing GME FTDs with TSLA FTDs since TSLA is the more "Volatile" of the stocks out there. The numbers are mind blowing.
|
||||
|
||||
The very last datapoint we have on GME is June 14, with a FTD count of 105,712
|
||||
|
||||
The highest ever nr of FTDs in one day for TSLA was on DEC 17, 2020, at 1,382,452 FTDs.
|
||||
|
||||
At first glance, it would look like the tesla number is 10 bigger than the GME one no? Well you'd be right, however we need to remember that the number of outstanding shares for the two companies are wildly different. On Dec 17, TSLA had 905,000,000 outstanding shares, while on June 14, GME had only (assumed) 77,000,000 outstanding shares.
|
||||
|
||||
So if you put these percentage wise:
|
||||
|
||||
- TSLA: 1382452 / 905000000 * 100 = 0.1527 % of total shares were FTD
|
||||
|
||||
- GME: 105172 / 77000000 * 100 = 0.1372 % of total shares were FTD
|
||||
|
||||
So just a random day in June for GME had as many FTDs as Tesla did in its highest day ever in its history.
|
||||
|
||||
So then... the question on everyone's mind... what was GME's highest FTD day? Well you see everyone, Oct 13 2020: 3,210,148. On that date, according to ycharts, GME had 65.2M outstanding shares. I'm actually going to go with 70 mill shares as I think the 65M number is wrong. So
|
||||
|
||||
- 3210148 / 70000000 * 100 = 4.5% of total shares were FTD. THEY COULDN'T LOCATE 4.5% OF THE GOD DAMN COMPANY!
|
||||
|
||||
SEC what the fuck are you doing??? Seriously who looks at these numbers and goes like "YEP, THIS IS FINE!". Do your god damn job!
|
||||
|
||||
Sources:
|
||||
|
||||
GME FTD data <https://sec.report/fails.php?tc=36467W109>
|
||||
|
||||
TSLA FTD data <https://sec.report/fails.php?tc=TSLA>
|
||||
|
||||
GME Outstanding Share Count data: <https://ycharts.com/companies/GME/shares_outstanding>
|
||||
|
||||
TSLA Outstanding Share Count data: <https://ycharts.com/companies/TSLA/shares_outstanding>
|
||||
|
||||
No fuckery going on here people....
|
@ -0,0 +1,90 @@
|
||||
T+35 Follow Up [some general thoughts]
|
||||
======================================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/dentisttft](https://www.reddit.com/user/dentisttft/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/obng9s/t35_follow_up_some_general_thoughts/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
[Discussion 🦍](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22Discussion%20%F0%9F%A6%8D%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||
Hello everybody! Yes, I'm still here.
|
||||
|
||||
I wrote a post a couple weeks ago about T+35 FTD's. [T+35 is the one true "cycle"](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/o155a6/t35_is_the_one_true_cycle_evidence_to_back_my/)
|
||||
|
||||
I've been wanting to write a follow up post for a while, but I didn't want to write it until I had more answers. That led me down a very deep and confusing path tracking ETFs, and to be honest, I probably won't be able to get a full picture for a bit. So I'll go ahead and do a quick follow up post now.
|
||||
|
||||
Does T+35 still happen?
|
||||
|
||||
Yes. They're not always easy to spot. 6/25 had 40,000 FTDs were most likely covered at 12:20 EST. 6/17 had a 90,000 volume candle which could have easily been the next three days worth of FTDs. Remember, there is nothing forcing them to wait until the last day. This is just what they HAVE been doing. After my post got some attention, I noticed a difference in the FTD behavior. Either they wait until the last possible minute, they cover in the first minute, they cover multiple days early, etc.
|
||||
|
||||
Why is it 35 days? (technically, before the 35th day)
|
||||
|
||||
The stock gets shorted and settles into an FTD in T+2. Normally, Rule 204 would require them to close the FTD within a day or two. But on the FTD day, they sell a put giving them the "deem to own" clause of Rule 204. When they are "deemed to own" a share, they are able to wait 35 days from the *transaction date*. This is why the 34 days starts on the FTD date, not the date it was shorted like you may think.
|
||||
|
||||
If you want proof of this, there is a certain stock that reminds me of a leprechaun. It had a HUGE FTD day in early june. Next thing you know, Put OI sky rocketed. Check other less popular meme stocks and you will probably see the same thing.
|
||||
|
||||
What about ETF FTDs?
|
||||
|
||||
In my post I stated that ETF FTDs behave the same way as GME FTDs. This is only partially true. They DO get delayed 35 days. They DO NOT get covered on the 34th day following the FTD. There are details within Rule 204 that make the timing slightly different. I've spent the last couple of weeks figuring out all the nitty gritty details... but woah... it's a mess. I'd like to make a post sometime soon with my findings.
|
||||
|
||||
Why do FTDs not do much anymore?
|
||||
|
||||
It looks like they are shorting the ETFs when they have GME FTDs due and shorting GME when they have ETF FTDs due. You can see this by going 34 days from an ETF FTD. The ETF and other non meme stock in the ETF will rise from the cover but GME will stay flat. I plan on covering this more in my future ETF post. But damn, that spring is getting extremely coiled.
|
||||
|
||||
[![r/Superstonk - T+35 Follow Up [some general thoughts]](https://preview.redd.it/tzjywmtg4m871.png?width=2242&format=png&auto=webp&s=3d1b425ba9041c37465618d6181449f8d8ab3d19)](https://preview.redd.it/tzjywmtg4m871.png?width=2242&format=png&auto=webp&s=3d1b425ba9041c37465618d6181449f8d8ab3d19)
|
||||
|
||||
Heatmap of ETF FTDs (not weighted by %GME). Each ETF is colored individually so they are on their own scale.
|
||||
|
||||
The top third is the heavier ETFs. Look at those cycles. Fun stuff.
|
||||
|
||||
Why didn't the new 002 rule do anything?
|
||||
|
||||
I tried leaving a few comments to explain this, but I'm sure a lot of people didn't see it. Remember they were *already* satisfying the requirements of the old monthly rules when the new rule came into effect. The deposit for the old monthly rule was already made. I don't see any reason why they suddenly would be over budget from a daily check. The effects of 002 probably won't be seen until the next GME run up.
|
||||
|
||||
Do the FTDs even matter?
|
||||
|
||||
GME FTDs, no... ETF FTDs, yes. The problems that were coming from the high numbers of GME FTDs have moved to the ETFs. Until the ETF FTDs hit a breaking point, GME will most likely stay flat and have an occasional spike like we saw on Wednesday. The way I see it, moving the problems to ETFs only delays everything at the cost of inflating the entire market.
|
||||
|
||||
When is the next big T+35 day?
|
||||
|
||||
Friday and Tuesday look decent. But history tells me it will be a spike and then settle again. They are putting in a lot of money to keep GME from taking off.
|
||||
|
||||
What does that mean for me?
|
||||
|
||||
Keep doing what you're doing. It's building up. It's coming, probably sooner than you think. Future posts will cover this.
|
||||
|
||||
Want to see something fun? GME is repeating itself.
|
||||
|
||||
The weeks after January are currently happening again at a higher floor. Why? I don't know. It might have to do with quarterly options that have been open for a while. But I wouldn't expect anything to happen for a week or two. ** not manipulated... I swear... hehe **
|
||||
|
||||
[![r/Superstonk - T+35 Follow Up [some general thoughts]](https://preview.redd.it/cb1m05dm5m871.png?width=1097&format=png&auto=webp&s=5605fd333b0ac1d9b31c6ad16a290acd15d9202a)](https://preview.redd.it/cb1m05dm5m871.png?width=1097&format=png&auto=webp&s=5605fd333b0ac1d9b31c6ad16a290acd15d9202a)
|
||||
|
||||
What about T+21?
|
||||
|
||||
I don't know. I'm still not sure T+21 is a thing. I think there are other factors in play that ended up giving GME spikes 21 days apart. Possibly two T+35 cycles at the same time. I have reason to believe the spike in May and the two in June came from ETFs. These are the same reasons I don't think there will be much longer to wait. A couple weeks... but more on that in another post.
|
||||
|
||||
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
|
||||
|
||||
Alright, that's about all I wanted to cover as a follow up. Sorry it isn't full of juicy content. I was waiting to post until I had real answers, but it's taking longer than expected. The ETFs are the key to the puzzle and they're hitting a boiling point.
|
||||
|
||||
TL;DR:
|
||||
|
||||
- T+35 with GME FTDs still is a thing, but GME is being suppressed pretty hard right now.
|
||||
|
||||
- T+35 with ETF FTDs works, but it's not 35. It's 35 days from the puts being sold. I'll have a new post in the future with more details.
|
||||
|
||||
- The driving forces behind GME have moved into the ETFs.
|
||||
|
||||
- HFs are switching back and forth between shorting GME directly and shorting the ETFs to keep GME consistently down.
|
||||
|
||||
- I'll have a post about ETFs in the next 4-5 days.
|
||||
|
||||
Also, I made a twitter account so I can post thoughts throughout the day without needing to write a full post. I don't know how much I'll use it. <https://twitter.com/dentisttft>
|
||||
|
||||
I had to turn off most of my notifications. The best way to get a hold of me is by tagging me in a comment. It never notifies me of tags in posts... so make sure it's a comment. I try to respond to all tags.
|
||||
|
||||
Alright, pce~~~
|
||||
|
||||
- [u/dentisttft](https://www.reddit.com/u/dentisttft/)
|
@ -0,0 +1,60 @@
|
||||
RC's tweets are timed with ETF FTDs
|
||||
===================================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/dentisttft](https://www.reddit.com/user/dentisttft/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/oeahh2/rcs_tweets_are_timed_with_etf_ftds/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
[Possible DD 👨🔬](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22Possible%20DD%20%F0%9F%91%A8%E2%80%8D%F0%9F%94%AC%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||
*This post is for education purposes only. Not financial advice.*
|
||||
|
||||
TL;DR: RC's tweets happen on days where large amounts of ETF FTDs are covered/delayed.
|
||||
|
||||
Hi everyone,
|
||||
|
||||
I've been diving into ETF FTDs for a while now and something finally clicked. *Almost every RC tweet happens on the same day a large amount of ETF FTDs are "cleared".* ETF FTDs are allowed to stack up for 3 days before needing to be handled. So when a specific ETF stacks up a decent chunk of FTD, puts are opened to delay 34 days, then RC tweets.
|
||||
|
||||
To show what I mean, I weighted the ETF FTDs by GME's weight within the ETF. GME is in a lot of ETFs, but these are the ETFs with significant enough FTDs: IWM, XRT, XSVM, FTXD, BUZZ, XSMO, IWC, FNDX, IJR, SPSM, SFYF, PSCD, SLYV, VXF, IJT, GINN, and VB.
|
||||
|
||||
Below is a heatmap of those ETFs. Each ETF is a different row, each trading day is a different column. The green color shows where a lot of FTDs are. The darker the green, the more ETFs. The blue marks a day where RC tweeted. If you look at a blue column and track it down, there is an ETF or two that had just cleared their stacked FTDs from the day earlier.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/q7fwa3kn1f971.png?width=1714&format=png&auto=webp&s=a82cf29f39b7996f3de3e34460ba6f615120d3e7)
|
||||
|
||||
Tweets come the day FTDs are cleared - EDIT: outside of the fist emoji (DFV), flag (35 days before memorial day which had GME FTDS), job posting (35 days before June 2 runup), and one of the south park GIFs
|
||||
|
||||
I have an old post from May that claims the Ted tweets are referencing Rule 204: Close-out requirements, the rule the that specifies the thirty-five day cover period.
|
||||
|
||||
[RC Tweet Analysis: Part 1 [The Ted Tweets]](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/niui83/rc_tweet_analysis_part_1_the_ted_tweets/)
|
||||
|
||||
So using [my T+35 theory](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/o155a6/t35_is_the_one_true_cycle_evidence_to_back_my/), I marked every trading day that came 35 calendar days after a tweet on the 4H chart. You'll see that most tweets end up corresponding to a jump in GME's price. Gray lines are tweets, green lines are 35 days after a tweet.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/ngufchm54f971.png?width=1307&format=png&auto=webp&s=57ee666bc94c2f54ab09d22e72726e46178964bb)
|
||||
|
||||
GME 4H chart with new tweets marked in gray and T+35 of tweets marked in green.
|
||||
|
||||
Not every tweet corresponds to a jump, but a lot do. The last few tweet's T+35 jump during after hours/premarket after the 35th day because technically they can be covered before 9:30 AM EST on the following day. Notice how a new tweet ends up being very close to the T+35 of an old tweet? To me this visually shows the process of kicking the can down the road. GME is getting suppressed pretty hard so let's mark 35 days after a tweet on SPY. You'll notice green days more consistently on SPY.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/ycd7osw34f971.png?width=1305&format=png&auto=webp&s=fa0047eb004c9c3ed00aed02493a7c785433135a)
|
||||
|
||||
SPY 4H chart with T+35 of tweets marked in green.
|
||||
|
||||
Why is that? Because if a lot of ETF FTDs are being covered on these days, then a lot of underlying stock are being bought to return the ETFs. If a lot of underlying stock rises in value, SPY should rise in value too. GME is being shorted on these days, so it doesn't move much. But they can't short the entire market. I believe the sheer number of ETF FTDs needing to be covered every week is leading to the market inflation that has been seen for the past few months.
|
||||
|
||||
What does this mean for the future?
|
||||
|
||||
I've highlighted days where I expect upward GME movement. But since GME is being held down so much lately, I would expect more upward movement from SPY.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/2u5qd8n53f971.png?width=1390&format=png&auto=webp&s=592a6eb2bd74c64efbae25ad3a5100789307701b)
|
||||
|
||||
Red boxes on dates of T+35 from ETF FTDs.
|
||||
|
||||
That's all I got for today. I'm planning on dropping the ETF FTD DD tomorrow morning. It will go more in depth about the details surrounding this.
|
||||
|
||||
pce~~
|
||||
|
||||
- [u/dentisttft](https://www.reddit.com/u/dentisttft/)
|
||||
|
||||
PS. I made a twitter: <https://twitter.com/dentisttft>
|
@ -0,0 +1,74 @@
|
||||
Citadel has hostages: explaining why the MOASS is taking so long, how the January spike was stopped, Robinhood's motives for the trading halt, and the mysterious silence of the SEC
|
||||
====================================================================================================================================================================================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/Bladeace](https://www.reddit.com/user/Bladeace/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/ofdhkk/citadel_has_hostages_explaining_why_the_moass_is/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
[DD 👨🔬](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22DD%20%F0%9F%91%A8%E2%80%8D%F0%9F%94%AC%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||
TA;DR: The January MOASS is delayed because Citadel took hostages. They figured out how to ensure that others would be squeezed before they were. January 28th is the day Robinhood was required to deliver some of the GME shares Citadel owed to its customers, so they halted trading. They halted trading because their relationship with Citadel turned them into a hostage. The MOASS waits until new regulations ensure the hostages are safe...
|
||||
|
||||
TL;DR: Citadel wasn't going to be squeezed in January, Robinhood was. Citadel took hostages and figured out how to ensure that others were squeezed before they were. Robinhood halted trading after GME was on the threshold list for 35 days. After 35 days of failures to deliver, a broker becomes responsible for delivering the security to their customer. The MOASS is taking so long because Citadel managed to figure out how to make their short position other people's problem. This is why Citadel seems to have so many people protecting it and willing to lie for it: they've spent six months figuring out how to ensure it's actually Citadel that gets squeezed. This is why there is an unusual cooperation between parties we wouldn't expect to be able to keep this secret for this long. Not even the SEC can address this directly, Citadel figured out how to take everyone hostage. The past six months have been a negotiation to figure out how to deliver our tendies.
|
||||
|
||||
Theory: Robinhood halted trading the day they became liable for delivery of the GME shares Citadel sold to their customers
|
||||
|
||||
I think Robinhood halted trading because they were required to purchase GME shares to deliver their customers' past orders. Look at this requirement from [SHO § 242.203 (b2)](https://www.law.cornell.edu/cfr/text/17/242.203):
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/el9inu75kq971.png?width=1066&format=png&auto=webp&s=950d9158e1ede602b68c834ec9da9552e464e3a3)
|
||||
|
||||
If a Robinhood customer buys shares that are cleared by Citadel Securities, their delivery is not a problem for Robinhood *unless it takes longer than 35 days*. Once a security has taken longer than 35 days to be delivered, Robinhood is responsible for delivering it to their customer. Citadel still has to deliver the security too, but they deliver to Robinhood. So, the chain of obligation goes like this:
|
||||
|
||||
1. Your broker/dealer owes you the security they sold you
|
||||
|
||||
2. The market maker owes your broker the security they sold to the broker
|
||||
|
||||
3. The seller of the security owes the market maker the security they sold to the market maker
|
||||
|
||||
The key point is that *your broker is the one who owes you the shares you buy.* If someone else fails to deliver those shares, it's your broker's problem (although they have some ability to make this into your problem, there were too many GME shares owed to avoid their SHO obligations).
|
||||
|
||||
*(Expanded explanation, boring - you should skip)*
|
||||
|
||||
So, if I want to sell a share on the market (strictly hypothetical, I've never actually tried selling), then I do not owe the sold share directly to the buyer of that share. I send my sell order into the market via my broker and they send that off to the market center where the order is executed by a market maker. I sell my share to the market maker executing the trade. The market maker then sells that share to the broker of whichever ape has brought it and the broker then sells that share to the buyer. Assuming this goes smoothly, my share ends up in the account of the buyer. However, technically speaking, I do not owe the security to the buyer. I owe the security to the market maker, who owes it to the broker, who owes it to the buyer. So, if something goes wrong, and I fail to deliver that share, I have not defaulted on my sale to the buyer, I have defaulted on my sale to the market maker executing the trade. That market maker still owes the share to the buyer's broker, regardless of my failure.
|
||||
|
||||
*(End of skippable content)*
|
||||
|
||||
I suspect that Citadel had been failing to deliver GME shares to Robinhood for an extended period, which is why Robinhood halted buying. Their primary motive was not to help Citadel, but to protect themselves *from* Citadel. After 35 days of failure, Robinhood has to buy the shares they expected Citadel to deliver for their customers. Effectively, due to Citadel's failures to deliver, Robinhood had inherited Citadel's short position. Citadel owed Robinhood and Robinhood owed their customers. I should clarify that, in this scenario, Citadel still owes Robinhood the shares at some point, but Robinhood has to deliver them to their customers *now*. At first, Robinhood didn't care that Citadel owed shares to their customers, until it went on for too long and Robinhood was on the hook to deliver.
|
||||
|
||||
Proof: the timing lines up
|
||||
|
||||
For this to be true, you would expect there to be a relationship between when Robinhood halted trading and the 35 day threshold. If you look at my recent [post on the relationship between the threshold security list and the January price spike](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/oao9oo/the_nyse_threshold_list_collapsing_shorts_and/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3) you'll see that GME was on the threshold list for 39 consecutive settlement days, from early December to early February. Robinhood halted trading on January 28, which is *day 35* of this 39 day streak. The trading halt aligns with when the obligation for Robinhood to deliver kicks in. As soon as the undelivered shares became Robinhood's problem, trading was halted. Frankly, I would have expected them to halt trading earlier than the final moment, day 35, but perhaps waiting until the last moment will allow them some legal defense in the court cases to come?
|
||||
|
||||
Proof: the weird cost basis after transfer
|
||||
|
||||
A number of users pointed out that their [purchase prices and dates were incorrectly reported when transferring from Robinhood to other brokers](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/ncezct/so_robinhood_finally_sent_over_my_cost_basis_from/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3). I suspect this is because Robinhood initially sold their users the shares based on delivery promises made by Citadel that Citadel then failed to fulfil. So, after 35 days, Robinhood had to fulfil them instead. My guess is that this process was an absolute mess because it required Robinhood to at least appear to be purchasing GME shares from someone *other* than Citadel, which is rather awkward when Citadel is a designated market maker for GME on all major exchanges. The transaction dates and prices are wrong because the trade that was eventually settled for your GME shares *was not the same trade you sent to your broker* - that trade failed and Robinhood had to redo it after 35+ days.
|
||||
|
||||
This might help explain why [my analysis of the 605 data](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nc1h4o/findings_from_my_analysis_of_605_data_huge_short/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3) found that the proportion of GME order executions done through NASDAQ spikes in February, despite being almost non-existent prior to Feb 2021. If Robinhood needs to buy-up GME without going *directly* through Citadel, they'll need to get inventive and perhaps even use over the counter purchases. So, go to a market center that has very little history of executing GME orders - NASDAQ. It's possible that Robinhood borrowed/brought GME from a variety of places to cover for the clusterfuck Citadel dumped them with, and then allocated those GME shares that actually got delivered to customers that transferred. If you had a massive shambles of shares like this, it might manifest in an inaccurate and messy purchase history for your customers.
|
||||
|
||||
Proof: others halted trading too
|
||||
|
||||
Robinhood wasn't the only one that halted trading. It's difficult, but not impossible, for Citadel to have orchestrated this behind the scenes. It's much easier to explain this seemingly organized trading halt by pointing out that the brokers who halted trading *only halted trading when they themselves became obligated to deliver the shares in question.* This is why they halted trading *after* the price had already been spiking - my guess is that Citadel was putting on pressure behind the scenes too, but I don't think it's a coincidence that trading didn't actually halt until the time arrived that the brokers themselves were threatened with delivery obligations.
|
||||
|
||||
Context and discussion: saving Citadel
|
||||
|
||||
Notice that my theory does not do Robinhood any favors - this is not a defense of them or their actions. I suspect, as was claimed during the congressional hearings, the trading halt was the main reason the January spike ended. If my theory is correct, it's likely that the ending of the January spike saved Citadel. This claim is nothing new. What I think my theory adds to the discussion is a better explanation of why Robinhood and others did this. Remember, the buying halt was a disaster for Robinhood! They were dragged in front of congress, their reputation is in tatters, and they're bleeding customers. Halting buying was *not* a good play. My guess is that they knew it would be a disaster and did it anyway. I think that this is why they waited right up until day 35 of GME's run on the threshold list - they didn't help Citadel until the only other option was delivering the undeliverable. In January, those who halted trading were slated to be the first victims of the MOASS.
|
||||
|
||||
Further implications: MOASS is so slow because Citadel has hostages
|
||||
|
||||
I suspect that the implications of what almost happened to Robinhood in January are why we're seeing some of the recent regulation changes ('clarifications'). I think that it was *Robinhood and not Citadel that was squeezed in the January spike*. Citadel is a market maker with its own market center, it has privileges and exemptions that make it quite resilient (as we've found out over the past six months). Robinhood does not have the same level of protection from its exposures, once the 35 day settlement mark passed, they had to deliver shares. It was the brokers that needed to buy shares from the 28th onwards: Citadel's failures to deliver were, in the short term at least, the brokers' problem. For all we know, Citadel didn't cover any of the deliveries that finally got GME off the threshold list at the beginning of February and managed to force the brokers to do it for them. If they were willing to abuse the market enough, perhaps via abuse of NASDAQ in February as my previously linked post discusses, Citadel might have even used the brokers need to deliver as a way of *expanding* their short position substantially while 'technically' resolving the failures to deliver (kicking the can down the road to another day). I guess there is no better ally than one who has to pay your debt if you go under...
|
||||
|
||||
So, if my theory is correct, January almost saw Citadel's failures result in *someone else* getting squeezed! Perhaps this is why the trading halt became the focus of the congressional hearings. Maybe this is why the DTCC has focused so many of their new regulations on clarifying what happens if positions need to be forcibly closed. January might have demonstrated that a market center, such as Citadel Securities, could contrive a scenario where they force *someone else to be squeezed by their short position!*
|
||||
|
||||
In [my post examining the February gamma](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/mvvuhp/feb_2426_failed_launch_attempt_and_proof_the_dtcc/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3), I argue that the bizarre market activity near the end of February was a failed attempt to begin the MOASS. If my theory that Robinhood, not Citadel, was being forced to deliver in January is correct, I don't think it's any surprise that attempts to begin the MOASS have been prevented since January. The regulations required updating to prevent Citadel from forcing others to be squeezed before they were. If I am correct, Citadel was holding everyone hostage. The embodiment of too big to fail: not just because of the havoc their sudden demise would cause, but because *they wouldn't be squeezed until after the squeezing of all the smaller parties caught in the impossibly convoluted web of failures to deliver and rehypothecation that Citadel shat into the market.* Lots of entities were exposed to the squeeze, and Citadel was setup to be hit last.
|
||||
|
||||
The MOASS can't launch until the hostages are safe. It needs to be Citadel that's squeezed. Otherwise, the squeeze might wreak havoc on the market with no guarantee that the one responsible dies too. There was no choice but to wait. Meanwhile, Citadel is a huge market center with substantial political clout and presence in the regulators themselves. So, setting up the regulations for the MOASS took time. It was urgent, but those involved were regulating against one of their own.
|
||||
|
||||
I think this offers a compelling explanation for what we've been living through over the last six months because it attributes a strong motive to the parties involved to remain silent. Explaining why this debacle has lasted six months is very difficult. It's an absolute disaster and we haven't even heard anything from the SEC. What could justify this level of cooperation to keep lips tight, just to delay the inevitable? Why such slow action as the problem gets bigger? My guess is that Citadel has hostages and it's taking a lot of careful work behind the scenes to figure out how to be sure that Citadel is the one that takes the fall. With everyone's hands tied and the need for secrecy so high, the job takes time.
|
||||
|
||||
As a disgusting parting thought, I should mention that, if I'm right, my theory predicts that those responsible will suffer only minimal punishment. I suspect it's taken six months because they've needed at least some cooperation from Citadel to sort this out. If this is true, my guess is that Citadel spent February trying to get out of their predicament and refused to cooperate with attempts to arrange the MOASS that will kill them. The February gamma might have been other parties preventing Citadel's efforts to make the situation worse and forcing Citadel to come to the negotiating table. During the early months we saw market activity that indicated whales were fighting each other. I think this was Citadel trying to escape their own trap and whales preventing them, knowing it was too dangerous to let Citadel make things worse while it held the system hostage. Notice that this explains why, relatively speaking, the GME activity calmed slightly as this dragged on: Citadel was forced to the negotiating table and has been helping plan and regulate its own destruction. I suspect the payment for this cooperation will be those involved getting off lightly, because the alternative would be to have the MOASS without them releasing the hostages. Unfortunately, if I'm right, we'll see those responsible living in Florida after this is over. Bankrupt and embarrassed, but more comfortable than the plebs.
|
||||
|
||||
Obvious but crucial disclaimer: I am a random on the internet spinning yarns about a conspiracy theory. As I was posting this thread, I decided to literally wear a tinfoil hat. Anyone reading this should understand my tinfoil attire to mean that I am not competent enough to be offering any advice or taken seriously. Readers must carefully examine any claims made here independently and not regard my words as authoritative.
|
||||
|
||||
Thank you to [u/RoutineYesterday267](https://www.reddit.com/u/RoutineYesterday267/) for a post that led to me writing this
|
@ -0,0 +1,57 @@
|
||||
The whole stock market is being propped up by the RRP market and today I got confirmation bias.
|
||||
===============================================================================================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/titaniumoxide202](https://www.reddit.com/user/titaniumoxide202/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/ofr285/the_whole_stock_market_is_being_propped_up_by_the/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
|
||||
[Education 👨🏫 | Data 🔢](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22Education%20%F0%9F%91%A8%E2%80%8D%F0%9F%8F%AB%20%7C%20Data%20%F0%9F%94%A2%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||
I saw a wrinkly brained ape's youtube video (sorry I watch so much shit I can't find who made it) on how the dow jones, S&P, prime brokerages and big banks' (including international ones) stocks tank at around 10 am and then suddenly recover because they NEED the RRP market to post more collateral. I didn't believe it until I checked the charts today. These charts look IDENTICAL to each other. The price is not only wrong for GME but the entire global stock market price is wrong too. HOLY. FUCKING. MOLY. JACKED=TITs.
|
||||
|
||||
Edit: <https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J5J1pW1rVA8> here's the link. Thanks [u/The_Fake_King](https://www.reddit.com/u/The_Fake_King/)
|
||||
|
||||
P.S They aren't even trying to be discrete anymore. They are DESPERATE.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/dy7erkoclu971.png?width=1242&format=png&auto=webp&s=33f90da5abc2f22e292676225f5e7d7ac247114b)
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/0ajrqecxku971.png?width=1242&format=png&auto=webp&s=ba15822bc72953300d9ffdb838d12a3915fa197b)
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/6jxs7ccxku971.png?width=1242&format=png&auto=webp&s=8e4384605d0fd84000c9de41fb91bf3a644b9293)
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/n9dxpn3kku971.png?width=1242&format=png&auto=webp&s=1c98442d7f3487e88f49aa65bc65125be00323da)
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/b2y4jz3kku971.png?width=1242&format=png&auto=webp&s=7a214711c089e322f9bbab4d5206dd7588874fff)
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/vs1v0t3kku971.png?width=1242&format=png&auto=webp&s=86a56c683e85961d8b485643cfd8657506111405)
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/zrnf6m3kku971.png?width=1242&format=png&auto=webp&s=3cf7085790430cc788d36832cf60f3e3d506cae5)
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/sbfbnp3kku971.png?width=1242&format=png&auto=webp&s=11958c4e60087c5a90836bbe5b6cb907f85d0143)
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/428koz3kku971.png?width=1242&format=png&auto=webp&s=966b2ebec618ca1f77a7c7b6e22d1a92f0df389f)
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/34duc34kku971.png?width=1242&format=png&auto=webp&s=87817270edad52fdaa030912dd78df70d589532e)
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/hgwpsc4kku971.png?width=1242&format=png&auto=webp&s=69d9e5e346aca7d1eba6def5855a29abeb88dd16)
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/9ht1o34kku971.png?width=1242&format=png&auto=webp&s=842bae394de413b9510f5d08c352857a68ef1541)
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/i98i0j3kku971.png?width=1242&format=png&auto=webp&s=67caeb722a196092e2a1e67da20527d77e0d05e9)
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/6uj8sn3kku971.png?width=1242&format=png&auto=webp&s=7497d256e507fa949de849b9da4dc90adc15d88a)
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/e944tz3kku971.png?width=1242&format=png&auto=webp&s=fc4330182481ef3d07d2de1c382118804df8e3d2)
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/y4um9l3kku971.png?width=1242&format=png&auto=webp&s=b57870485f4e9a347ed111fb9818a2cd3b31d064)
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/xtvl7h3kku971.png?width=1242&format=png&auto=webp&s=7141d752ff4b045c31d55e7a6102f30065e4657d)
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/ydb8fm3kku971.png?width=1242&format=png&auto=webp&s=3d0d72944c9e3460130082225467e84bacdb0bcc)
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/qwealf3kku971.png?width=750&format=png&auto=webp&s=9d00ae8ae35037eca09ea48368d9e668ac0b336e)
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/7fa0xk3kku971.png?width=750&format=png&auto=webp&s=edcc8956475920c1f7a75638e49c5d42cc42594c)
|
@ -0,0 +1,168 @@
|
||||
Theory: ALL THE PIECES, pt. 1 -- The Anatomy of the Crime of Citadel
|
||||
===================================================================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/swede_child_of_mine](https://www.reddit.com/user/swede_child_of_mine/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/mn0q9q/theory_all_the_pieces_pt_1_the_anatomy_of_the/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
[DD 👨🔬](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22DD%20%F0%9F%91%A8%E2%80%8D%F0%9F%94%AC%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||
*"Behind every great fortune there is a crime" -- Balzac*
|
||||
|
||||
This post is the collective narrative behind the plays on GME by large institutions. This will be a multi-part DD post gathered from excellent insights on this sub. As there have been no open confessions of these activities by the perpetrators (a la Bernie Madoff), or books that have yet been written, this will only exist as a theory with pieces of evidence to support where we can. It is designed to be high-level, approachable, supported by available sources where possible, and represent key players and interests as it relates to the events surrounding GME. It is incomplete. Where information cannot be confirmed, it will be marked as rumor or speculation and should be treated as such, but it should not be a rabbit-hole. It will be ongoing and require updating as well as contributions from you, outlined below:
|
||||
|
||||
- [] - request for link to relevant DD (DD posts or legitimate sources)
|
||||
|
||||
- /e?/ - expert insight requested (e.g. legal review -- I'll try to call out specific users that are known for their specialties on this sub)
|
||||
|
||||
- /R/ - further research requested
|
||||
|
||||
(Setting expectations for the veteran readers of [r/GME](https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/) and [r/SuperStonk](https://www.reddit.com/r/SuperStonk/): you will already be familiar with many of the terms, events, and points described in this first post. However, even if it is already familiar to you, I hope this post will still be a valuable summary and an easy introduction for anyone who wants to know more about the stock. Please feel free to contribute sources you might see are missing)
|
||||
|
||||
* * * * *
|
||||
|
||||
Part 1: The Crime of Citadel
|
||||
|
||||
$GME
|
||||
|
||||
The current price of GameStop stock is artificial. In simpler terms, the price of $GME is not determined by normal market dynamics - supply and demand. This is because Citadel and others have been illegally manufacturing fraudulent shares of GME, abusing their special designation as Market Maker to profit their firms. The more straightforward term for their activity is *share counterfeiting*. Citadel & others have been counterfeiting shares of GME, profiting from non-existent shares, dumping fraudulent stock to lower the price, and abusing system lapses to hide their activities. Their scheme that has grown wildly out of hand and now threatens to wipe out many more firms in the market due to their risky behaviors.
|
||||
|
||||
An overview of the mechanics of this scheme:
|
||||
|
||||
FTD (for Failure To Deliver) -- a key term to understand
|
||||
|
||||
1\. FTD is a standardized term for a delay in delivering a share that's been purchased. *In the context of Citadel, an FTD represents a counterfeit share.*
|
||||
|
||||
- In the US market, a share can be sold regardless of whether or not it actually exists. The financial system accepts the transaction at face value so that the buyer can continue trading.
|
||||
|
||||
- The delay in delivering a share is meant to be temporary...
|
||||
|
||||
- ...but for Citadel's case, they never had the share they sold; they abused their position to "sell" something they didn't have.
|
||||
|
||||
- Outright share counterfeiting is highly illegal, and one of the financial crimes that [carries prison sentences](https://www.criminaldefenselawyer.com/crime-penalties/federal/Securities-Fraud.htm)
|
||||
|
||||
- For Citadel to perpetrate this crime, they needed to hide it among their transactions and appear legitimate (FTD's can be legitimate, and enforcement is subjective "[*...will depend on the facts and circumstances of the particular activity*](https://www.sec.gov/divisions/marketreg/mrfaqregsho1204.htm)")
|
||||
|
||||
Citadel's Scheme, Part 1: Create a Share, Legitimately
|
||||
|
||||
1\. [Citadel](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Citadel_LLC)'s activities are recognized as a ["bona-fide" Market Maker](https://www.mmlawus.com/newsitem/alerts/larry-bergmann-addresses-regulation-sho-and-bona-fide-market-making/), an industry designation which allows them special authorities and responsibilities.
|
||||
|
||||
- One of their special authorities is to "create" shares in the marketplace as part of their role of providing liquidity. ("Liquidity" is finance speak for -- "keeping the shelves full with the stocks people want")
|
||||
|
||||
- Citadel is allowed to execute transactions without owning the share -- i.e. Market Makers can temporarily "create" a share from nothing -- with the understanding that it is illegal to manufacture shares for their own profit.
|
||||
|
||||
- This "temporarily created share" is recorded as a "short": designed to be sold to the marketplace then bought back within a brief period of time, to prevent an enduring non-existent share in the marketplace.
|
||||
|
||||
- "Shorting" is also a common practice of borrowing a share from someone else's account. The borrowed share is sold into the marketplace, and ideally bought back at a lower price and returned to the account (many financial companies do this legally, Citadel included).
|
||||
|
||||
- Both traditional shorting and "bona-fide" market maker shorting creates a "legitimate" non-existent share -- temporarily. Again, the non-existent share is meant to be a placeholder until a real share is delivered.
|
||||
|
||||
- If the share is out in the marketplace long enough without being repurchased, the share is flagged as an FTD -- failure to deliver -- since there was no *actual* share delivered. If it is never reconciled, it becomes counterfeit.
|
||||
|
||||
Citadel's Scheme, Part 2: It's Only Illegal If You Get Caught
|
||||
|
||||
1\. The process of determining an FTD is technically complex. There are regulations for the amount of days which need to pass [before a share is declared an FTD](https://www.sec.gov/investor/pubs/regsho.htm).
|
||||
|
||||
- Additionally, *AFTER* a share is delcared an FTD, there are additional times allowed for counterfeit shares to to be rebought, with even more time allotted for Market Makers to do so.
|
||||
|
||||
- But once the allotted time passes and the delivery is still failed, the party at fault is subject to enforcement measures.
|
||||
|
||||
- The enforcement measures are weak -- [small fines levvied far after the violation](https://financefeeds.com/citadel-securities-fined-275k-reporting-violations-700k-fine-2020/) (generally for less than the profit made from the activities)...
|
||||
|
||||
- ...and it is difficult to track. Individual shares may trade dozens or hundreds of times per day, and there is no way to follow the path -- or origin -- of each individual share.
|
||||
|
||||
- So the "counterfeit" share is logged against the overall pool of shares, not knowing which particular one is non-existent. But the contracts for the sale remains on the books of the parties involved.
|
||||
|
||||
- And while enforcement agencies are not interested in small volumes of counterfeit shares or low cost shares, Citadel has been manufacturing millions of fraduluent shares at a price of hundreds of dollars each, getting away with it under the guise of "bona-fide" Market Maker activities that have yet to be settled.
|
||||
|
||||
- However, any company with a "short" position on their books will retain the debt of the counterfeit share for the duration it is on the market...
|
||||
|
||||
Citadel's Scheme, Part 3: Take the Money...
|
||||
|
||||
1\. Once the counterfeit share is sold and becomes an FTD, there are several options for addressing the FTD.
|
||||
|
||||
- Buying a share in the marketplace is the primary way of closing out an FTD. This also closes out the "short" position that is on the seller's books.
|
||||
|
||||
- A second way to close an FTD is when the price of the stock goes to $0, and the stock gets de-listed. This voids *all* of that company's stock, including the fraudulent shares. [] The FTD problem simply goes away with all of the other stock.
|
||||
|
||||
- For a party engaged in the criminal act of counterfeiting shares, their main interest is in avoiding consequences of FTDs - not getting caught. They intend to sell shares they never have and never pay for them.
|
||||
|
||||
- Paying for shares from the marketplace is undesirable to Citadel, not only because it increases costs ("the cost of legitimacy"), but also because the price of shares could go up and make the transaction a loss.
|
||||
|
||||
- Flooding the market with shares also has the added effect of dropping the price of the stock, because the market is overwhelmed with supply...
|
||||
|
||||
- ...and if the price goes so low that the stock gets de-listed, the "debt" of the shares on the seller's books becomes a writeoff, which they will enjoy a tax benefit from [].
|
||||
|
||||
- So bankrupting copmanies is the most desirable outcome from share counterfeiters. The targeted company is an unfortunate casualty, chosen for its ability to be shorted into bankruptcy.
|
||||
|
||||
- This is the first part of Citadel's scheme: target a company, flood the market with counterfeit shares, drop the price of the stock to $0, walk away with the profits from the counterfeit shares, and enjoy the tax writeoff.
|
||||
|
||||
- Note: Short positions are not publicly disclosed, and a company's banruptcy closes all positions, so tracing these activities to Citadel is extremely difficult. These activites can happen entirely behind closed doors and leave little evidence in the public marketplace. That is what this sub has been working with: trace evidence of counterfeiting activities in the marketplace.
|
||||
|
||||
Citadel's Scheme, Part 4: ...and Run
|
||||
|
||||
1\. Profitably closing an FTD (either via bankrupcy or repurchase) requires one thing: the price of the target stock to go down.
|
||||
|
||||
- In this case, the $GME stock price went up during their scheme.
|
||||
|
||||
- This caused Citadel to find an alternative to closing the FTDs. So perhaps as a temporary stop-gap, or perhaps as a last resort, Citadel chose to perpetuate FTDs without closing them - they would keep the FTDs ongoing as long as they could, never getting caught, until circumstances let them exit their position. Hiding until they escape.
|
||||
|
||||
- Since FTDs are reported by *time*, Citadel figured they could reset the "timer" to avoid getting caught (very similar to floating credit card payments). They could do this two ways:
|
||||
|
||||
- First, they could short the traditional way -- borrow or acquire a batch of the shares from an exchange or *dark pool* (an off-exchange trading room), and then turn around and close their FTDs. Those new shorts would later become new FTDs, but it would give them a few days.
|
||||
|
||||
- Second, they could counterfeit additional shares. While it is uncertain if it was possible for Citadel to use counterfeit shares to close out FTDs [], their releasing more counterfeited shares into the marketplace let them easily borrow or buy the shares back, then turn around and close out the FTDs. Again, shorting gives a few more days until thes counterfeit shares became FTDs.
|
||||
|
||||
- Citadel could reset FTDs like this continuously, never running into the enforcement limits without being able to reset the FTD timer again.
|
||||
|
||||
- This would also keep the marketplace full of shares - normally a desirable outcome. But in the interest of their counterfeiting scheme, keeping an abundant supply of shares in the marketplace also keeps the stock price low, the availability of additional borrows high, and the interest on the borrowed shares low.
|
||||
|
||||
- And if Citadel was worried about availability, they could also re-borrow the share they just sold (i.e. borrow from A, sell to C, then borrow the same share from C -- a process known as "rehypothecation") -- a legal practice.
|
||||
|
||||
Citadel's Scheme, Part 5: But at what cost?
|
||||
|
||||
1\. The cost of resetting the FTD timetable -- "kicking it down the road" -- is twofold:
|
||||
|
||||
- First, there is a daily interest paid on every shorted share Citadel has. The interest rate is decided by the lending organization, and is related to the price and availability of the share to be borrowed. []
|
||||
|
||||
- Second, for every short Citadel left open, the debt of that share remains on their books. As Citadel shorts more shares and as the price of the shares went up, their overall debt increases. If the debt gets too large, Citadel would potentially be "margin called" -- their debtors would force Citadel to pay up. [courtesy: [u/atobitt](https://www.reddit.com/u/atobitt/) - [Image of Citadel's 2020 "securities sold but not yet purchased"](https://preview.redd.it/83uepbgudqm61.png?width=829&format=png&auto=webp&s=7c8b1f1475be0cf61d55f87e29fd282c45833b3c)]
|
||||
|
||||
- It is unknown when or how large their debt must be before Citadel is margin called.[]
|
||||
|
||||
- Additionally, due to Citadel's activities it is difficult to know what a *legitimate* short term debt is on their books, from their legitimate activities, or what a fraudulent debt is from their counterfeiting activities.
|
||||
|
||||
- But by using a legitimate function to hide their scheme, they can achieve the illegal results -- selling shares which they don't have and never intend to deliver.
|
||||
|
||||
- Citadel's activities also pose an extreme cost to the system. Fraudulent shares circulating in the marketplace means investors may become unsure that their shares are legitimate. Or investors may become unsure that the price of the stock is a reflection of legitimate supply and demand, but is instead artificial -- lowered because of a surplus of fake shares.
|
||||
|
||||
* * * * *
|
||||
|
||||
Addtional reading: [u/atobitt](https://www.reddit.com/u/atobitt/) 's - ["Citadel has no clothes"](https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/comments/m4c0p4/citadel_has_no_clothes/)
|
||||
|
||||
[u/canhazreddit](https://www.reddit.com/u/canhazreddit/) 's - ["It's painfully obvious that when GME has a ton of FTDS, they're immediately reversing them with their hedgefuckery."](https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/comments/mijfq9/its_painfully_obvious_that_when_gme_has_a_ton_of/)
|
||||
|
||||
* * * * *
|
||||
|
||||
TL; DR & Summary: Citadel has been perpetrating a crime -- illegally counterfeiting shares into the marketplace in order to profit. They are selling shares they don't have and never intended to deliver. Citadel has been using their designation as a Market Maker to cover their activities as well as continue to counterfeit shares. This poses an increasing risk to their own business and moreso the overall market.
|
||||
|
||||
Edit: [u/Vipper_of_Vip99](https://www.reddit.com/u/Vipper_of_Vip99/) smartly recommended updating the bullets to numbers.
|
||||
|
||||
* * * * *
|
||||
|
||||
Final note: here is an excerpt on Bernie Madoff from the [Madoff Investment Scandal wiki](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Madoff_investment_scandal):
|
||||
|
||||
> At one point, Madoff Securities was the largest buying-and-selling "market maker" at the NASDAQ.
|
||||
|
||||
>
|
||||
|
||||
> In 1992, The Wall Street Journal described him:
|
||||
|
||||
>
|
||||
|
||||
> *... one of the masters of the off-exchange "third market" and the bane of the New York Stock Exchange. He has built a highly profitable securities firm, Bernard L. Madoff Investment Securities, which siphons a huge volume of stock trades away from the Big Board. The $740 million average daily volume of trades executed electronically by the Madoff firm off the exchange equals 9% of the New York exchange's. Mr. Madoff's firm can execute trades so quickly and cheaply that it actually pays other brokerage firms a penny a share to execute their customers' orders, --- Randall Smith, Wall Street Journal*
|
||||
|
||||
And here is an excerpt from [Citadel's wiki](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Citadel_LLC#Citadel_Securities):
|
||||
|
||||
> Citadel Securities automation has resulted in more reliable trading at lower costs and with tighter spreads. [...] Citadel Securities is the largest market maker in options in the U.S., executing about 25 percent of U.S.-listed equity options volume. According to the Wall Street Journal, about one-third of stock orders from individual investors is completed through Citadel, which accounts for about 10% of the firm's revenue. Citadel Securities also executes about 13 percent of U.S. consolidated volume in equities and 28 percent of U.S. retail equities volume.
|
@ -0,0 +1,208 @@
|
||||
Theory: ALL THE PIECES, pt. 2 -- The Deep End of the Pool
|
||||
========================================================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/swede_child_of_mine](https://www.reddit.com/user/swede_child_of_mine/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/ms9z0n/theory_all_the_pieces_pt_2_the_deep_end_of_the/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
[DD 👨🔬](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22DD%20%F0%9F%91%A8%E2%80%8D%F0%9F%94%AC%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||
[*There was Jimmy, and Tommy, and Me. - Goodfellas*](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=caCA0rUMR6U)
|
||||
|
||||
This post is the collective narrative behind the plays on GME by large institutions. This will be a multi-part DD post gathered from excellent insights on this sub. As there have been no open confessions of these activities by the perpetrators (a la Bernie Madoff), or books that have yet been written, this will only exist as a theory with pieces of evidence to support where we can. It is designed to be high-level, approachable, supported by available sources where possible, and represent key players and interests as it relates to large players movements in GME. It is incomplete. Where information cannot be confirmed, it will be marked as rumor or speculation and should be treated as such, but it should not be a rabbit-hole. It will be ongoing and require updating as well as contributions from you, outlined below:
|
||||
|
||||
- [] - link to relevant DD requested (DD posts or legitimate sources)
|
||||
|
||||
- \ /e?/ - expert insight requested (e.g. legal review -- I'll try to call out specific users that are known for their specialties on this sub)
|
||||
|
||||
- \ /R/ - further research requested
|
||||
|
||||
(Setting expectations for the veteran readers of [r/GME](https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/) and [r/SuperStonk](https://www.reddit.com/r/SuperStonk/): you will already be familiar with many of the terms, events, and points described in this first post. However, even if it is already familiar to you, I hope this post will still be a valuable summary and an easy introduction for anyone who wants to know more about the stock. Please feel free to contribute sources you might see are missing)
|
||||
|
||||
* * * * *
|
||||
|
||||
Part 2: The Deep End of the Pool
|
||||
|
||||
The price of $GME is artificial. The [previous post](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/mn0q9q/theory_all_the_pieces_pt_1_the_anatomy_of_the/) covered how Citadel was perpetrating a crime, illegally counterfeiting shares to change the price of GME for profit. It is not alone in this crime. Multiple organizations are coordinating the same illegal activities in a larger scheme. Their illegal enterprise engages in share counterfeiting, price fixing, and conspiracy. Some of their crimes leave public evidence, but some of the activity takes place discreetly in *Dark Pools* - off exchange rooms where trades happen with fewer regulations and less visibility. The end result is that each organization abuses their position to profit in an illegal enterprise which jeopardizes the larger market.
|
||||
|
||||
Key Terms
|
||||
|
||||
1. Market Maker (or "MM") -- a special role in a stock exchanges around the world. An MM's primary role is to provide liquidity, or "to make sure there are shares available to buy if people want them" as well as "make sure there is a buyer if people want to sell." Liquidity makes for easy buying and selling.
|
||||
|
||||
- Liquidity is also important because some companies want their stock price to be related to their company performance (a.k.a. - valuation), and not related to whether or not their shares are available (a.k.a. - scarcity). [More here](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/p/pricediscovery.asp)
|
||||
|
||||
- Since a Market Maker has control over the availability of shares -- which controls the price -- a Market Maker is required to remain "neutral" on its positions. They cannot put pressure on a stock on either the buy side or sell side. If they create a position on one side to meet demand, they must "hedge" on the other side by creating or owning an opposing position. This "neutralizes" their effects on the stock price, but still creates the liquidity.
|
||||
|
||||
- The designers of this framework presumed an honest Market Maker.
|
||||
|
||||
Part 1: Recap -- The Shallow End
|
||||
|
||||
1. Citadel is the largest Market Maker for the NYSE. But Citadel has been using its powers as Market Maker to illegally counterfeit shares for profit.
|
||||
|
||||
- A Market Maker has the authority to temporarily create shares. Citadel has been abusing this to create *perpetual temporary shares* (or "naked shorts") by exploiting a reporting lapse in the system, so the *perpetual temporary shorts* aren't recognized as fraudulent.
|
||||
|
||||
- This is called a *naked short*, because there isn't a share "there", but the system shows it is and the system acts like it is.
|
||||
|
||||
- Citadel naked shorts both for profit and for tactical reasons. Tactically, when Citadel introduces more (counterfeit) shares into a limited supply, they can lower the price of the targeted stock by dilution...
|
||||
|
||||
- ...and if a stock becomes low enough, it gets de-listed. De-listing typically bankrupts the company and circumvents any consequences for the naked shorts. But the counterfeiter still profits -- at the expense of the company they bankrupted.
|
||||
|
||||
- However, with $GME, Citadel found itself unable to counterfeit enough shares to de-list the stock. Failure meant it needs to prevent the large amount of naked shorts from "Failing to Deliver" (or FTD) -- have their status realized as counterfeit by the regulators.
|
||||
|
||||
- Citadel needs to constantly close out and re-open ("refresh") the naked shorts it has flooded the market with, perpetuating the temporary shares.
|
||||
|
||||
- The cost to Citadel is twofold: daily interest on the legitimate shorts, and exposure to being *margin called* -- forced to pay for the fraudulent shares -- should the price of GME go high enough. Citadel is extremely motivated to prevent this from happening.
|
||||
|
||||
Part 2: Marco
|
||||
|
||||
1. Citadel needs to abide by its responsibilities as a Market Maker when it creates a share; it needs to remain "neutral" on its MM positions.
|
||||
|
||||
- Creating a share is a "net short" position for a MM, meaning it creates downward pressure on the stock price. Even if they rent out the share for someone else to short it will still be a *net short* position.
|
||||
|
||||
- For a created share to be a sanctioned MM action, it must paired it with another, opposite position to make the entire action neutral.
|
||||
|
||||
- A MM can offset a short position by adding a "long" position -- which creates upward pressure on the stock price. A long position mostly means buying a share, buying call options, or selling put options.
|
||||
|
||||
- The long position plus the short position, mathematically balanced, equals a neutral position.
|
||||
|
||||
- An MM that illegally counterfeits shares is looking to minimize the costs of their neutral position. They will adopt the most cost-effective position possible.
|
||||
|
||||
- The most likely cost-effective counter to a "net short" position is to sell puts.
|
||||
|
||||
- And while Citadel is [no stranger to selling to itself](https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/comments/lnctgx/citadel_is_an_evil_corp_look_at_its_track_records/) (which is called a "wash sale"), the practice of being both the buyer and the seller attracts a regulator's attention. Which, is something Citadel likely doesn't want happening for its illegal shorting scheme. So it needs to sell the puts to an outside party.
|
||||
|
||||
- *This means Citadel needs another organization to collude with.*
|
||||
|
||||
Part 3: Polo
|
||||
|
||||
1. If Citadel needs an accomplice, an easy target is a company that is already relying on Citadel in one way or another.
|
||||
|
||||
- Melvin lists Citadel as an investor[], and most likely depends on Citadel to be their Market Maker for securities orders.
|
||||
|
||||
- Melvin also embraces an aggressive shorting strategy[], which requires an abundance of shorts to execute.
|
||||
|
||||
- So the arrangement between Citadel and Melvin is thus:
|
||||
|
||||
- Citadel creates naked shares for Melvin to borrow or buy. Now Citadel is a "negative" position and they need to be a neutral position. Plus they are taking on risk by fabricating counterfeit shares...
|
||||
|
||||
- ...so Citadel writes ITM puts, and Melvin buys them - making Citadel net neutral. Pretend the premium on the puts is $5.
|
||||
|
||||
- Melvin immediately closes the position on the puts (a net $0 activity, and stems the risks to either party), and the transaction is complete.
|
||||
|
||||
- Melvin now has shorts to use, and Citadel nets $5 and remains neutral.
|
||||
|
||||
- The puts are merely a formality: they keep Citadel neutral and are a way to pay for the naked shorts.
|
||||
|
||||
- This is called a "married put" -- renting out a naked short tied to a put, for the price of the premium on the put.
|
||||
|
||||
- Afterwards, Melvin sells the naked shorts, profiting from the sale and also lowers the price of the stock closer to bankruptcy.
|
||||
|
||||
- And if things go badly for them, Citadel can compel Melvin to close out their shorts, or even intervene and close out the position themselves, while leveraging their powers as Market Maker.
|
||||
|
||||
- (*However, closing out seems unnecessary, doesn't it? Since they can always change a rising stock price with additional naked shorts...*)
|
||||
|
||||
- And if they want, Melvin and Citadel have additional means of concealing their activities:
|
||||
|
||||
- as part of the married put transaction, Melvin can turn and sell Citadel "out of the money" (OTM -- meaning, will expire worthless) calls as part of the transaction to make it look like standard activity.
|
||||
|
||||
- The combination of a put plus a call plus a share is called [a reverse conversion.](https://www.deepcapture.com/wp-content/uploads/2007.10.09-J-Welborn-Married-Puts-and-Reverse-Conversions.pdf)
|
||||
|
||||
- It's unclear if either Citadel or Melvin initiated the scheme. Citadel needs constant demand for the counterfeit shares, while Melvin needed abundant shorts - it's rumored that Melvin is a "[hitman hedge fund](https://www.reddit.com/r/WallStreetbetsELITE/comments/lw0cky/either_melvin_lied_about_closing_position_ms_in/)".
|
||||
|
||||
- But both parties needed someone who is unconcerned with the *actual* status of the shares being shorted. So it's clear both are aware of the illegal nature of the shares they are leveraging.
|
||||
|
||||
This sub has noticed records of strange banks of calls and puts, which represent probable evidence for the scheme described here.
|
||||
|
||||
* * * * *
|
||||
|
||||
Evidence [1](https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/comments/m7xipv/whale_watching_the_sweeping_seas_318/) [2](https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/comments/lsnlte/ok_so_random_theory/) [3](https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/comments/mhv22h/the_si_is_fake_i_found_44000000_million_shorts/)
|
||||
|
||||
* * * * *
|
||||
|
||||
Part 4: A Shiver (The Deacons)
|
||||
|
||||
1. However, in the highly competitive world of corporate finance, successful strategies like Melvin's and Citadel's are tracked, followed, copied, and mirrored.
|
||||
|
||||
- Naked shorting has been [around for awhile](https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/comments/mexlpn/accidentally_released_and_incredibly_embarrassing/), and the payouts are obvious.
|
||||
|
||||
- Other hedge funds or investment banks likely copied Melvin's actions on the same targeted companies, [aiming to profit from their actions without needing to research the strategy too much](https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/comments/mcwu5m/mystery_of_the_negative_beta_solved_hfs_are/)...
|
||||
|
||||
- ...which makes it likely that Citadel was also *fabricating shares for other hedge funds.*
|
||||
|
||||
- So it isn't only Citadel -- there are others involved in this crime.
|
||||
|
||||
- Additional players could also profit, and [assist](https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/comments/m9bfp0/naked_short_selling_the_truth_is_much_worse_than/) either legally or illegally.
|
||||
|
||||
- Susquehanna SIG -- a major Market Maker for options, had [substantial interest](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/mlf82b/the_missing_citadels_frenemies_pfof_michael/) in this scheme. Their strategic puts could apply price pressure to the distressed companies and allow SIG to profit from the options placements -- and from price manipulation.
|
||||
|
||||
- Other investment banks and options sellers have also joined in. Their profits could be legal, approved market activity of buying puts or selling shorts. Or the profits could be illegal, resulting from naked shorting and manipulating the price downward.
|
||||
|
||||
- A partial list of large companies that have taken positions against GME include: [Melvin Capital, Citadel Advisors, SIG, UBS Group AG, Group One Trading, Citigroup, Wolverine Capital, and Maplelane Capital](https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/lw0g1g/the_industry_players_again_gme/).
|
||||
|
||||
- Coordinating their efforts can achieve a multiplier on their returns. By adopting the same positions as the others, each company assumed a smaller portion of exposure while enjoying the multiplied pressure from their group efforts.
|
||||
|
||||
- The risk of loss is still real, but it is diminished, and marginal compared to the collective assets and rewards.
|
||||
|
||||
Part 5: The Deep
|
||||
|
||||
1. As the conspirators coordinated their attacks, they needed a way to operate without gaining public attention.
|
||||
|
||||
- They were used to operating within the parameters of the enforcement agencies (SEC, FINRA)...
|
||||
|
||||
- ...and their activities would be recorded, regardless, on the public register.[]
|
||||
|
||||
- But off-exchange trading venues -- a.k.a. Dark Pools -- would be perfect for their needs.
|
||||
|
||||
- Dark Pools have delayed reporting. The transactions themselves are allowed more time to be recorded (10s -- an eternity in trading time)...
|
||||
|
||||
- ...and have the benefit of not being publicly reported by FINRA until [*WEEKS*](https://www.sec.gov/divisions/marketreg/form-ats-n-filings.htm) after the transactions had taken place.
|
||||
|
||||
- And Dark Pools intentionally keep transactions as anonymous as possible. Again, all transactions would be received by the register and would include the parties involved. But bids and asks that *didn't* end up transacting are never disclosed -- masking the real positions and intentions.
|
||||
|
||||
- But the most valuable part for the conspirators: unlike public exchanges, transactions that take place in Dark Pools do not affect the official national price -- the NBBO.
|
||||
|
||||
- Meaning, they could execute the trades that *negatively* affected the price in the public exchanges...
|
||||
|
||||
- ...and then execute the trades that *positively* affected the price in Dark Pools.
|
||||
|
||||
- So the price would only go down from their activities.
|
||||
|
||||
- And naturally, they could do so in just such a way that they could achieve their goals without attracting regulatory or public attention. (They were extremely familiar with toeing that line).
|
||||
|
||||
- While it is unclear if they *actively discussed* this scheme or coordinated each of their roles (institutional relationships can be tentative, or circumstantial - best described as "frenemies")...
|
||||
|
||||
- ...the transactions would act as tacit collaboration between the firms. They would be able to figure out who else was working with them, and what their position was.
|
||||
|
||||
- Collectively, they are very aware of their mutual positions, even without having explicitly discussed them. The volume, type, location, time, and other positional details would most likely give away what and who was transacting...
|
||||
|
||||
- ...while acting as a signal for others to respond to. Showing an opportunity to be siezed.
|
||||
|
||||
Again, the contributors of these subs have noticed high levels of corresponding transactions of $GME occuring in Dark Pools.
|
||||
|
||||
* * * * *
|
||||
|
||||
Evidence [1](https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/comments/mg5aui/hfs_traded_over_302_million_shares_of_gme_in_otc/) [2](https://www.reddit.com/r/Wallstreetbetsnew/comments/llbz1m/mindboggling_dark_pool_network_may_have_traded/) [3](https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/mnm8h0/gme_last_30_days_of_dark_pool_options_order_flow/)
|
||||
|
||||
* * * * *
|
||||
|
||||
Further reading on the overview: [u/boneywankenobi](https://www.reddit.com/u/boneywankenobi/) 's [deeper dive](https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/comments/mjzx9w/full_analysis_of_current_gme_si_proof_from_the/)
|
||||
|
||||
Further reading on married puts: [u/broccaaa](https://www.reddit.com/u/broccaaa/) 's fantastic research [here](https://www.reddit.com/r/Wallstreetbetsnew/comments/mgof7q/the_naked_shorting_scam_revealed_lending_of/) and [here](https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/comments/mh6lnz/the_naked_shorting_scam_update_selling_nude_like/)
|
||||
|
||||
Further reading on Dark Pools: [u/NoseBurner](https://www.reddit.com/u/NoseBurner/) 's [excellent recap](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/mpvm3a/into_the_heart_of_darkness_darkpools_and_fud/), which refers to [u/umu68](https://www.reddit.com/u/umu68/) 's [prolific work](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/movevb/dance_of_darkness_the_sec_and_dark_pools/)
|
||||
|
||||
* * * * *
|
||||
|
||||
TL;DR and Summary -- The speed, sophistication, and savvy of the firms illegally affecting the price of $GME and other stocks make it easy for them to collaborate. Each are playing their part -- naked shorting, writing options, providing legitimate cover, transacting in Dark Pools for effect -- according to their specialization. They are extremely financially incentivized to do so. Their familiarity with the regulations means they feel they are able to engage and even expand their scheme without legal consequences. And the tools they have at their disposal give them the means to execute their fraudulent enterprise at will. Some of the financial world's largest firms are complicit or are actively participating. They have assumed the public will not take notice, because the public had not taken notice. This line of reasoning is typically referred to as "Black Swan."
|
||||
|
||||
* * * * *
|
||||
|
||||
Calls to verify /e?/: [u/the_captain_slog](https://www.reddit.com/u/the_captain_slog/), [u/NoseBurner](https://www.reddit.com/u/NoseBurner/), [u/broccaaa](https://www.reddit.com/u/broccaaa/), [u/boneywankenobi](https://www.reddit.com/u/boneywankenobi/)
|
||||
|
||||
Credit roll (in order of appearance): [u/krisoijn](https://www.reddit.com/u/krisoijn/), [u/G_KG](https://www.reddit.com/u/G_KG/), [u/ElevationAV](https://www.reddit.com/u/ElevationAV/), [u/dejf2](https://www.reddit.com/u/dejf2/), [u/DigitalSoldier1776](https://www.reddit.com/u/DigitalSoldier1776/), [u/bobfern37](https://www.reddit.com/u/bobfern37/), [u/animasoul](https://www.reddit.com/u/animasoul/), [u/VaseaPost](https://www.reddit.com/u/VaseaPost/), [u/pinkcatsonacid](https://www.reddit.com/u/pinkcatsonacid/), [u/skifunkster](https://www.reddit.com/u/skifunkster/), [u/bimnett](https://www.reddit.com/u/bimnett/), [u/StonkyFarts](https://www.reddit.com/u/StonkyFarts/), [u/DIY-Dude-123](https://www.reddit.com/u/DIY-Dude-123/)
|
||||
|
||||
Special shout out to [u/GMEisLightandLove](https://www.reddit.com/u/GMEisLightandLove/), [u/beowulf77](https://www.reddit.com/u/beowulf77/)
|
||||
|
||||
Final note - some relevant news this week: <https://www.reddit.com/r/news/comments/mqql1f/ap_source_ponzi_schemer_bernie_madoff_has_died_in/>
|
@ -0,0 +1,121 @@
|
||||
Calculating potential Short Interest from Married Put remnants and Share Rehypothecation
|
||||
|
||||
========================================================================================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/AlexanderHood](https://www.reddit.com/user/AlexanderHood/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/mtnohj/calculating_potential_short_interest_from_married/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
[DD 👨🔬](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22DD%20%F0%9F%91%A8%E2%80%8D%F0%9F%94%AC%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||
There have been a lot of posts floating around the subs postulating the real short interest.
|
||||
|
||||
I wanted to take a stab at it using what we know for sure about the mechanism for how the FTD's are hidden, the latest put option open interest and why the new DTC rule about double-borrow shares was implemented.
|
||||
|
||||
Assumptions
|
||||
|
||||
1\. Citadel and friends are using the Married Put method of hiding FTD's.
|
||||
|
||||
2\. Any Put for a strike of $20 or less for the rest of the year is an irrational option play no sane person would make.
|
||||
|
||||
3\. These apprently irrational puts are in fact part of a rational mechanism for hiding a FTD.
|
||||
|
||||
4\. The current outstanding number of irrational puts is correlated to the number of FTD's resulting from naked shorts.
|
||||
|
||||
5\. Basically all available shares to legally borrow have been legally borrowed.
|
||||
|
||||
Shares in cash accounts should not be made available to borrow. (Note the use of the S-word) With much of retail on RH or other brokers who may not be able to resist the temptation to make free money, I'm going to assume the borrow is 100%. (See disc below. If you disagree, swap in your own number and recalculate.) Due to re-hypothecation where a share sold short can be borrowed again and sold short again, the shares borrow number *could* exceed 100%. The daily available shares available to borrow often taps the zero shares mark before magically finding more shares the next day.
|
||||
|
||||
Let's math
|
||||
|
||||
GME Shares outstanding: 70.03M
|
||||
|
||||
GME Float: 45.99M
|
||||
|
||||
Irrational Puts from now until Jan 2023:
|
||||
|
||||
Apr 16 7,067
|
||||
|
||||
Apr 30 6,124
|
||||
|
||||
May 7 577
|
||||
|
||||
May 14 135
|
||||
|
||||
May 21 3,648
|
||||
|
||||
May 28 150
|
||||
|
||||
Jul 16 299,922
|
||||
|
||||
Oct 15 14,736
|
||||
|
||||
Nov 19 22,760
|
||||
|
||||
Jan 22 220,355
|
||||
|
||||
Jan 23 43,984
|
||||
|
||||
Total puts: 619,458
|
||||
|
||||
Shares equivaluent: 61,945,800
|
||||
|
||||
Shares borrowed & rehypothecated for shorting: 45.99M (100% of the float)
|
||||
|
||||
Shares failed to deliver: 61.95M (From Married Put remnants)
|
||||
|
||||
Estaimted Short Interest: 107.94M total shares
|
||||
|
||||
Estimated Short Interest: 234% using the proper industry-standard technique for calculating it
|
||||
|
||||
Estimated Short Interest: 70% using the dumb new method S3 Partners invented of calculating it
|
||||
|
||||
Discussion
|
||||
|
||||
Through the magic of re-borrowing a share sold short, there could be an infinite number of shares rehypothecated but in practice if we assume all shares purchased and placed in a cash account by and honorable broker, only X% of shares could be borrowed back so we have a case of diminishing returns. No idea what X% is here, but if you are reading this post please please move your shares to a cash account or take some action to prevent them from being borrowed. *Small changes to this X percentage have a dramatic effect on the ability to do this type of re-borrowing.*
|
||||
|
||||
Conjecture
|
||||
|
||||
Personally, I think X% here is 50%, which after maximum re-borrowing works out to be equal to the entire float. i.e. Half the shares are not available to borrow but the ones that are have been re-borrowed. (0.5 + 0.25 + 0.125 + 0.0625 + 0.03125 ... = 0.99) This is why I made the assumption above that shares equal to 100% of the float have been borrowed.
|
||||
|
||||
DTC Borrow Rule
|
||||
|
||||
Yes, the new DTC rules would prohibit this type of re-borrowing because you cannot borrow a share that has alredy been borrowed. All the shares borrowed more than once would have to be covered, which is half the outstanding float if you subscribe to my 50% estimate.
|
||||
|
||||
Very Conjectural
|
||||
|
||||
From the latest Bloomberg dump, the Institutions own 122% of the float and from my math we own about 105%. This is actually the reason I did this specific calculation, because I wanted to know if retail owned enough shares to force a moass even if all the Institutions were ordered to paper-hand by the PTB. If Institutions paper-hand in exchange for a seat at the asset auction for Citadels corpse, the moass hits Millions per shares rather than Trillions per share.
|
||||
|
||||
And at a minimum, 61.6M shares must be covered just to get back to a (legal) 100% Short Interest on the stock.
|
||||
|
||||
Sources
|
||||
|
||||
[What DFV knows](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/mtftsq/i_think_i_figured_out_what_dfv_knows_and_its/)
|
||||
|
||||
[Original Post on Married Puts](https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/comments/mgj0j1/the_naked_shorting_scam_revealed_lending_of/)
|
||||
|
||||
[Finra](https://finra-markets.morningstar.com/MarketData/EquityOptions/detail.jsp?query=126%3A0P000002CH&sdkVersion=2.59.0)
|
||||
|
||||
[Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/GME/key-statistics?p=GME) [Stonk Tracker](https://gme.crazyawesomecompany.com/)
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
**Relevant Comment by [u/Soulsauce042689](https://www.reddit.com/user/Soulsauce042689/)**
|
||||
|
||||
Just a quick couple of notes, on some common misunderstandings that DO NOT contradict OP's points, but do shore up some things:
|
||||
|
||||
Real shares can not be double borrowed DTC has been tracking lent shares since 2008 if not longer. [Relevant filing: DTC-2021-05]
|
||||
|
||||
"if that's the case, how does the SI% reach 226% then?" Best possible answer I can come with is naked shorting - illegal if entity is not a bonafide market maker.
|
||||
|
||||
* * * * *
|
||||
|
||||
Rehypothection is a lender (broker in this case) using collateralized assets as collateral to borrow from another lender. An example - your home is collateral for your mortgage, your mortgage lender may use your home to gain borrow from their lender.
|
||||
|
||||
Relevant note on margin accounts - In margin accounts up to 140% of your equity can be used in rehypothection to borrow capital from another lender.
|
||||
|
||||
* * * * *
|
||||
|
||||
One big piece to watch this week (22/04) is if brokers have lent more shares than they have the ability to cover. I'm going to be keeping a close eye on borrowable shares and borrow rate. If a significant portion or brokers are over extended on lent shares we can see a massive recall resulting in shorts being (hopefully) forced to cover.
|
@ -0,0 +1,133 @@
|
||||
May Update on the Married-Put Forensic Analysis
|
||||
|
||||
===============================================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/AlexanderHood](https://www.reddit.com/user/AlexanderHood/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nacqtm/may_update_on_the_marriedput_forensic_analysis/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
[DD 👨🔬](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22DD%20%F0%9F%91%A8%E2%80%8D%F0%9F%94%AC%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||
About a month ago I did an analysis for the real short interest (SI) for GME using what know about the legal Married Put mechanism for creating naked shorts.
|
||||
|
||||
I wanted to revisit what we know for sure about the mechanism for how the FTD's are hidden, the latest put option open interest and why the new DTC rule about double-borrow shares was implemented. Yes, I know some people don't think these remnants don't mean what we think they mean, but maybe they do.
|
||||
|
||||
TLDR Married Puts continue to be used to create naked shorts. Short Interest is at least 152% and increasing by over 100,000 shares per week.
|
||||
|
||||
Assumptions
|
||||
|
||||
1\. Citadel and friends are using the Married Put method of hiding FTD's.
|
||||
|
||||
2\. Any Put at a strike of $20 or less is an irrational option play no sane person would make.
|
||||
|
||||
3\. These apprently irrational puts are in fact part of a rational mechanism for hiding a FTD.
|
||||
|
||||
4\. The current outstanding number of irrational puts is correlated to the number of FTD's resulting from naked shorts.
|
||||
|
||||
What does irrational mean? Betting GME will drop below $1 by the end of the year is bonkers.
|
||||
|
||||
Let's math!
|
||||
|
||||
GME Shares outstanding: 70.77M
|
||||
|
||||
GME Float: 47.75M
|
||||
|
||||
Irrational Puts from now until Jan 2023:
|
||||
|
||||
| Option Expiry | Open Interest Apr 18 | Open Interest May 11 |
|
||||
|
||||
| --- | --- | --- |
|
||||
|
||||
| Apr 16 | 7,067 | 0 |
|
||||
|
||||
| Apr 30 | 6,124 | 0 |
|
||||
|
||||
| May 14 | 135 | 683 |
|
||||
|
||||
| May 21 | 3,648 | 3,990 |
|
||||
|
||||
| May 28 | 150 | 412 |
|
||||
|
||||
| Jun 4 | 0 | 64 |
|
||||
|
||||
| Jun 11 | 0 | 11 |
|
||||
|
||||
| Jun 18 | 0 | 1,046 |
|
||||
|
||||
| Jun 25 | 0 | 13 |
|
||||
|
||||
| Jul 16 | 299,922 | 303,927 |
|
||||
|
||||
| Oct 15 | 14,736 | 19,223 |
|
||||
|
||||
| Nov 19 | 22,760 | 22,601 |
|
||||
|
||||
| Jan 21, 2022 | 220,355 | 224,653 |
|
||||
|
||||
| Jan 20, 2023 | 43,984 | 46,136 |
|
||||
|
||||
| Total puts | 619, 458 | 622,769 |
|
||||
|
||||
Shares short from Married Put remnants on April 18th: 61.9M
|
||||
|
||||
Shares short from Married Put remnants on May 11th: 62.2M
|
||||
|
||||
Ok, what is this?
|
||||
|
||||
The number of naked short shares implied by Married Put remnants has increased by 331,100 shares in the last three weeks.
|
||||
|
||||
- Over 13k of irrational puts that expired worthless in the last three weeks but the total number of Irrational Puts continues to increase. Not only are they are continuing to utilize this method of shorting, but they are increasing in number as well by apx 100k per week.
|
||||
|
||||
- Ortex has 'exchange reported' Short Interest at 22.2%, or 10.6M shares.
|
||||
|
||||
- Combing the calculated naked short interest of 62.2M with the official short interest, we get 72.8M shares short or *152.5% SI*.
|
||||
|
||||
- On May 21st we have another 3,648 of irrational puts expiring, we'll see if they get 'rolled' over as well.
|
||||
|
||||
- The next BIG batch of Irrational Puts is set to expire in just 8 weeks, July 16th, over 300,000 or nearly HALF of them our there in fact. If we see a fresh batch of about 300,000 puts get created that day for an Op Ex six months in the future, I'll be on the phone to the SEC telling them they need to end this little charade. But do they need to get rolled? No. If apes keep buying, they need to short that number of shares, whatever the cost and by any means.
|
||||
|
||||
Discussion
|
||||
|
||||
Could the Short Interest be higher than this? ABSOLUTELY. This calculation does NOT include short shares created directly using legal Market Maker provisions and have not yet been covered by that Market Maker. This calculation does NOT include legal short shares created using the re-borrowing method. This calculation does not include shares shorted via the ETF's. (62 [ETF's](https://www.etf.com/stock/GME) hold 10.5M GME shares.) This calculation does not include any other means of shorting.
|
||||
|
||||
The new DTCC rule SR-DTC-2021-005 would prohibit the re-borrowing of a borrowed share. Will that rule apply the NSCC Share Borrow Program as well? Let's hope so. They pulled the draft of this but I'm hoping to see it make a return soon. (See links below for more detail on 005.)
|
||||
|
||||
Once the new DTCC rule prohibiting the re-borrowing of borrowed shares kicks in we should expect the borrowing costs to spike like crazy. It is the end, effectively, and will trigger squeezes everywhere. They pulled the first draft, probably becasuse the timing isn't right. Anxiously awaiting the re-release of 005 and the implementation timing. Aren't we all!
|
||||
|
||||
Disposing of the Evidence
|
||||
|
||||
When these expire, they're gone. Wiped off the books. Of course they are, these puts are worthless after all. Never intended to be exercised.
|
||||
|
||||
~~HELP! If anyone has the options data from Jan 15th and Mar 16th, would like to see how many more of these puts expired on those dates. i.e. How much were they using this before GME went all baby-squeeze January 28th?~~ Edit: Got the data, stay tuned! Thanks to Full_Option_6067 for the info! There are more shorts!
|
||||
|
||||
The advantage of picking options expiries with each quarter is that you get super-cost efficient strikes at like $0.50 but the big disadvantage is that the open interest SITS out there for months on end, waiting for some smooth-brained apes to figure out what it means.
|
||||
|
||||
When are they going to end the Married-Put shanannigans? Who knows.
|
||||
|
||||
Total Conjecture
|
||||
|
||||
Why was 005 delayed? Officially, for "reformatting". Tin-foil hat time: After posting it they found out this loophole for legally naked shorting stocks is in widespread use by every Hedgie and on hundreds of other distressed stocks. It's not just AMC and GME. If they nerf it we could be looking at a crack-up boom in the market and dozens of bankrupt hedges. Why a crack-up boom?? I'll give you a few million reasons: [Because every FTD is a naked short](https://wherearetheshares.com/).
|
||||
|
||||
The Great Halvening
|
||||
|
||||
[Never forget this happened](https://www.reddit.com/user/RubinoffButtChug69/comments/lfdcv1/fintel_changed_their_short_volume_data_after_my/?context=3)
|
||||
|
||||
I saw the Great Halvening happen with my own eyes, so I've just been multiplying all their SI numbers by 2 to figure out the in-adjusted SI. Where they hid the rest of the original '140%' short of GameStop ... remains a mystery.
|
||||
|
||||
Sources
|
||||
|
||||
[Original Post on Married Puts](https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/comments/mgj0j1/the_naked_shorting_scam_revealed_lending_of/)
|
||||
|
||||
[DTC-005 Original Doc](https://zenodo.org/record/4718936/files/005%20-%20SEC%20SR-DTC-2021-005-2%20-%20submission%20of%20rule%20finding.pdf?download=1)
|
||||
|
||||
[DTC-005 Analysis](https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/comments/mi8mo9/legal_interpretation_of_the_proposed_srdtc2021005/)
|
||||
|
||||
[Share Borrowing Program](https://smithonstocks.com/part-7-illegal-naked-shorting-dtcc-continuous-net-settlement-and-stock-borrowing-programs-have-loopholes-that-facilitate-illegal-naked-shorting/)
|
||||
|
||||
[Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/GME/key-statistics?p=GME)
|
||||
|
||||
[Stonk Tracker](https://gme.crazyawesomecompany.com/)
|
||||
|
||||
Edit: As requested 🚀🚀🚀
|
@ -0,0 +1,147 @@
|
||||
May 19th Update on the Married-Put Forensic Analysis
|
||||
====================================================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/AlexanderHood](https://www.reddit.com/user/AlexanderHood/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/ngp969/may_19th_update_on_the_marriedput_forensic/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
[DD 👨🔬](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22DD%20%F0%9F%91%A8%E2%80%8D%F0%9F%94%AC%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||
If you're feeling blue cause of all the red, I have some confirmation for your bias right here. :)
|
||||
|
||||
You shouldn't need it, cause the [004](https://www.sec.gov/rules/sro/occ.htm) news should have every part of your body totally jacked.
|
||||
|
||||
Since we just had such a blood-red day I wanted to check the current option Open Interest to see how much of todays selling pressure was from Naked Shorting. Well, we know Apes certainly aren't selling, so its gotta be bare nekkid!
|
||||
|
||||
This is an update to my previous post on Married-Put Remnant Forensics [here.](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nacqtm/may_update_on_the_marriedput_forensic_analysis/) If you haven't read that, read it first for the context of this post.
|
||||
|
||||
TLDR Short Interest increased by another 5% last week to 155% of the float and there may be even more shorts hiding in short-term put options for an additional 17% short interest.
|
||||
|
||||
No, seriously, go back and read that first one then come back.
|
||||
|
||||
Let's go!
|
||||
|
||||
Updated Calculated Short Interest from Married-Put Remnants
|
||||
|
||||
GME Shares outstanding: 70.77M
|
||||
|
||||
GME Float: 47.75M
|
||||
|
||||
Irrational Puts from now until Jan 2023:
|
||||
|
||||
| Option Expiry | Open Interest Apr 18 | Open Interest May 11 | Open Interest May 28 |
|
||||
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
|
||||
| Apr 16 | 7,067 | 0 | 0 |
|
||||
| Apr 30 | 6,124 | 0 | 0 |
|
||||
| May 14 | 135 | 683 | 0 |
|
||||
| May 21 | 3,648 | 3,990 | 0 |
|
||||
| May 28 | 150 | 412 | 484 |
|
||||
| Jun 4 | 0 | 64 | 211 |
|
||||
| Jun 11 | 0 | 11 | 108 |
|
||||
| Jun 18 | 0 | 1,046 | 1,458 |
|
||||
| Jun 25 | 0 | 13 | 28 |
|
||||
| Jul 16 | 299,922 | 303,927 | 303,679 |
|
||||
| Oct 15 | 14,736 | 19,223 | 19,285 |
|
||||
| Nov 19 | 22,760 | 22,601 | 22,527 |
|
||||
| Jan 21, 2022 | 220,355 | 224,653 | 226,991 |
|
||||
| Jan 20, 2023 | 43,984 | 46,136 | 45,859 |
|
||||
| Total puts | 619, 458 | 622,769 | 624,608 |
|
||||
| Shares short | 61.88M | 62.27M | 62.46M |
|
||||
|
||||
Ok, what does fox say?
|
||||
|
||||
The number of naked short shares implied by Married Put remnants has increased by the equivalent 184,900 shares in just the last week.
|
||||
|
||||
- Ortex has 'exchange reported' Short Interest at 11.82M shares.
|
||||
|
||||
- 4,600 put contracts have expired since the previous post but there is still a net *increase* of 1,839 contracts.
|
||||
|
||||
- Combining the calculated Naked Short interest of 62.46M with the official 11.82M short interest, we get 74.28M shares short or *155.6% SI*.
|
||||
|
||||
So, the Short Interest has *increased* by another ~5% over the last week while GME went from $146 to $168. (Wow. Apes are crushing!)
|
||||
|
||||
The Great Put Embiggening
|
||||
|
||||
Thanks to [u/Full_Option_8067](https://www.reddit.com/u/Full_Option_8067/) for digging up the options chain from January!
|
||||
|
||||
Back on January 15th the open interest for sub $20 Jan 2022 Puts was 22,278 which today has over 223,653 puts. The March sub $20 Puts was 29,374 and today that has ballooned to 224,653 puts.
|
||||
|
||||
Yup. No real suprise here, the baby-squeeze on Jan 28th sorta marked the beginning of the marry-them-puts shenannigans to drive the price action down down down.
|
||||
|
||||
Could this indicate naked shorting was occuring back in Jan? Possibly and probably. Certainly not to the extent it is today or at least the means to short GME were not predominantly Married-Put naked shorting.
|
||||
|
||||
The Wedding Planner
|
||||
|
||||
Considering the Put part of a Married-Put trade is NEVER gonna be used, it makes sense to minimize the cost the these types of puts. If you look at the January 2022 put options, the $0.50 strike costs just 2 cents! Two freaking cents! I guess even hedgies don't like throwing money away if they don't have to.
|
||||
|
||||
This explains why the pattern for these is densely clustered around just two Option dates a super-low-strikes. July 16th and Jan 21, 2022. These are the most cost-effective places to dump irrational puts. Only one problem, they stick out like a sore thumb. This got me thinking, where else can they hide shorts?
|
||||
|
||||
When you make an Assumption ...
|
||||
|
||||
When I wrote my original post on this topic I picked $20 as the cutoff strike price to delimit rational from irrational puts. I did that by eyeballing the double-distribution of puts across the Option Expiry dates and found a valley. Normal stocks don't have such exaggerated double humps and instead call/put action *generally* creates a nice camel hump pattern around the current stock price with the sporradic YOLO or fatfinger bet outliers.
|
||||
|
||||
That was a bad assumption and the more correct way to do it would be to define irrational puts by their implied volatility or more directly by their cost-effectiveness, knowing that anything spent on the cost of that put option is totally written off.
|
||||
|
||||
BUT, you can't just load up on *half a million* $0.01 put options in July at a $0.50 strike! That's gonna stand out like a big turd on the sidewalk, apes or somebody might notice that. You gotta spread those puts around a bit. So they grabbed 148k at $0.50 strike, 30k more at the $1.00 strike and well ... that's really not very well spread out. In thier defense, only the July 16 and Jan 21, 2022 Option Expiry dates have these ridiculous strikes so if there really wasn't a lot of other places to spread these turds out.
|
||||
|
||||
Shotgun Weddings
|
||||
|
||||
After snorting a few more crayons and reconsidering what an 'irrational put' is defined as, the next most obvious place to look was ANY puts that are really cost-effective with high-implied volality. (i.e. fat chance in hell of hitting that strike price.)
|
||||
|
||||
Of course, SHORT TERM put options!
|
||||
|
||||
Perfect place to hide more turds. You can get them cheap cause of the greeks, very often less than ten cents for the contract! Yeah, they expire within days, but there is a solution to that: Let them. Buy more next week.
|
||||
|
||||
Let's look at the irrational puts for the next couple of months option expiry and filter for *ten cent* put options with 200%+ Implied Volatility:
|
||||
|
||||
| Option Expiry | 10 cent puts, high IV |
|
||||
| --- | --- |
|
||||
| May 21 | *75,971* |
|
||||
| May 28 | 2,717 |
|
||||
| Jun 4 | 1,036 |
|
||||
| Jun 11 | 306 |
|
||||
| Jun 18 | 1,948 |
|
||||
| Jun 25 | 36 |
|
||||
| Total | 82,014 |
|
||||
|
||||
Boom! This Friday, nearly 76 thousand *worthless* puts expiring. Go look at the put option chain yourself [here](https://www.barchart.com/stocks/quotes/GME/options?expiration=2021-05-21-m&moneyness=allRows). Seriously, look at it. Does it make any sense? Dirt cheap puts with over 300% IV all the way up to a $80 strike. Who would buy an insane option like this? Anyone here think GME is going to drop by half in two days? Yeah, me either.
|
||||
|
||||
That's potentially another 8.2M shares short, bringing our calculated Short Interest up to 82.5M shares short or 172.8% Shorted of the float.
|
||||
|
||||
How can we confirm they are rolling short-term puts as part of married put trades? We should know Monday, cause the total open interest for irrational puts needs to be maintained in order for them to continue under the pretense of using this as a *legal* means of naked short selling. And this is a ton of open interest that's gotta get rolled. The OI for next week is a mere 2,717 contracts so if we see massive amounts of irrational puts Monday, there you go.
|
||||
|
||||
Could the Short Interest be even higher?
|
||||
|
||||
ABSOLUTELY.
|
||||
|
||||
This calculation does NOT include short shares created directly using legal Market Maker provisions and have not yet been covered (T+21) by that Market Maker. This calculation does NOT include legal short shares created using the re-borrowing method. (See 005 below.) This calculation does not include shares shorted via the ETF's. (62 [ETF's](https://www.etf.com/stock/GME) hold 10.5M GME shares and that undoubtedly all been shorted.)
|
||||
|
||||
Conclusion
|
||||
|
||||
Hedgies r fuk. They're digging an even deeper hole with every passing day. Every time I look at it there are more shorts. Naked shorts, everywhere. And I don't think we've found them all. There could be millions more hidden using 005 re-borrowing and millions more in rolling FTD's. I will not be surprised, if it turns out the real number was closer to 1,000% SI.
|
||||
|
||||
I do believe they are limiting themselves to only *legal* mechanisms for shorting the stock. Otherwise we would *not* see all the evidence they have left behind, like open puts, FTD reports, 13F's, etc. Which is probably a wise decision, when they get busted, none of them will actually go to jail.
|
||||
|
||||
The rate the SI in increasing is clearly unsustainable. The DTCC needs to margin call them ASAP. Every day they delay increases the cost by ~21 thousand shares, or about $210 million a day if the moass geometric mean is $10k. *cough* or higher. ;)
|
||||
|
||||
Sources
|
||||
|
||||
[Citadel 13F - Fintel](https://fintel.io/i13f/citadel-advisors-llc/2021-03-31-0)
|
||||
|
||||
[Original Post on Married Puts](https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/comments/mgj0j1/the_naked_shorting_scam_revealed_lending_of/)
|
||||
|
||||
[DTC-005 Original Doc](https://zenodo.org/record/4718936/files/005%20-%20SEC%20SR-DTC-2021-005-2%20-%20submission%20of%20rule%20finding.pdf?download=1)
|
||||
|
||||
[DTC-005 Analysis](https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/comments/mi8mo9/legal_interpretation_of_the_proposed_srdtc2021005/)
|
||||
|
||||
[Share Borrowing Program](https://smithonstocks.com/part-7-illegal-naked-shorting-dtcc-continuous-net-settlement-and-stock-borrowing-programs-have-loopholes-that-facilitate-illegal-naked-shorting/)
|
||||
|
||||
[Barchart Options](https://www.barchart.com/stocks/quotes/GME/options?expiration=2021-05-21-m&moneyness=allRows)
|
||||
|
||||
[Stonk Tracker](https://gme.crazyawesomecompany.com/)
|
||||
|
||||
Required
|
||||
|
||||
🚀🚀🚀
|
@ -0,0 +1,159 @@
|
||||
May 26th Update on the Married-Put Forensic Analysis - Shorts all the way down
|
||||
|
||||
==============================================================================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/AlexanderHood](https://www.reddit.com/user/AlexanderHood/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nl90c5/may_26th_update_on_the_marriedput_forensic/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
[DD 👨🔬](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22DD%20%F0%9F%91%A8%E2%80%8D%F0%9F%94%AC%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||
T'was the night before MOASS'mas and if you're too jacked to sleep, I have something to keep you jacked until Market Open.
|
||||
|
||||
Following up to my post from last week, [here](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/ngp969/may_19th_update_on_the_marriedput_forensic/).
|
||||
|
||||
If you haven't already that, this business about Married-Put-Remnants and Irrational-Puts won't make much sense, so go catch up and then pop back here after, kthxbye!
|
||||
|
||||
Last week, on Days of our Lives Buying and Hodling ...
|
||||
|
||||
We saw about 75k Irrational Puts expire. Poof! Gone. Where did they go?
|
||||
|
||||
What we did *not* see Monday morning was an additonal 75k Irrational Put options get opened up, that's for sure. What we *did* see yesterday and today, was a nice well-distributed build up of Irrational puts all across the board, spread out like sand on a beach. Totally innocuous.
|
||||
|
||||
Pop quiz hot shot! It's 2:30pm on a Tuesday, GME is ripping faces and chewing bubble-gum, boosters firing from $180 to over $210! What do you do?
|
||||
|
||||
*Buy put options at a $30 strike for this Friday.*
|
||||
|
||||
What??? No. Why on earth would anyone buy that crap? It's worthless. *Irrational*, if you will. ;) But that's exactly what happened today. And a lot more of it.
|
||||
|
||||
(Note: Some of todays largest put option trades were late afternoon, low-strike, low-cost and interestingly, not out of the *PHLX* exchange! Aha!)
|
||||
|
||||
Naked Naked Naked ... Pop Pop Pop
|
||||
|
||||
I've been watching the low-strike put options open interest to see how it changes day-to-day. Here is a comparison of today to yesterday, a snap-shot of some Irrational Puts popping into existence:
|
||||
|
||||
Option Expiry Date: May 28th
|
||||
|
||||
| Strike | OI May 24 | OI May 25 | Delta |
|
||||
|
||||
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
|
||||
|
||||
| $10.00 | 348 | 363 | 15 |
|
||||
|
||||
| $20.00 | 137 | 205 | 68 |
|
||||
|
||||
| $30.00 | 603 | 756 | 153 |
|
||||
|
||||
| $40.00 | 501 | 647 | 146 |
|
||||
|
||||
| $50.00 | 296 | 704 | 408 |
|
||||
|
||||
| $60.00 | 457 | 404 | -53 |
|
||||
|
||||
| $70.00 | 759 | 813 | 54 |
|
||||
|
||||
| $80.00 | 327 | 395 | 68 |
|
||||
|
||||
| $90.00 | 185 | 493 | 308 |
|
||||
|
||||
| $100.00 | 3,006 | 3125 | 119 |
|
||||
|
||||
| $110.00 | 1,027 | 954 | -73 |
|
||||
|
||||
| $120.00 | 806 | 901 | 95 |
|
||||
|
||||
| $130.00 | 560 | 973 | 413 |
|
||||
|
||||
| Sum | 9012 | 10733 | +1,721 |
|
||||
|
||||
With GME soaring, the cost of most of these low-strike options dropped to super-cheap levels. You could pick up puts at even a $130 stike for just $0.23 cents! Looking over the distribution of puts at strikes today, we saw widespread increases all the way up to about the $130 strike. So it would seem that whoever programmed the algo to distribute these evenly doesn't want to pay more than about $0.25 per contract.
|
||||
|
||||
If the Hedgies have a budget of about $0.25 max for Married Put contract, let's take a look at the following week's Op Ex to see if we see the same pattern of evenly distributed puts added today for low-strike options.
|
||||
|
||||
Option Expiry Date: Jun 4
|
||||
|
||||
| Strike | May 24 | May 25 | Delta |
|
||||
|
||||
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
|
||||
|
||||
| $10.00 | 134 | 134 | 0 |
|
||||
|
||||
| $20.00 | 83 | 92 | 9 |
|
||||
|
||||
| $30.00 | 270 | 291 | 21 |
|
||||
|
||||
| $40.00 | 186 | 233 | 47 |
|
||||
|
||||
| $50.00 | 424 | 476 | 52 |
|
||||
|
||||
| $60.00 | 262 | 278 | 16 |
|
||||
|
||||
| $70.00 | 76 | 102 | 26 |
|
||||
|
||||
| $80.00 | 58 | 62 | 4 |
|
||||
|
||||
| $90.00 | 77 | 114 | 37 |
|
||||
|
||||
| $100.00 | 361 | 466 | 105 |
|
||||
|
||||
| $110.00 | 239 | 315 | 76 |
|
||||
|
||||
| $120.00 | 260 | 389 | 129 |
|
||||
|
||||
| $130.00 | 174 | 224 | 50 |
|
||||
|
||||
| Sum | 2604 | 3176 | +572 |
|
||||
|
||||
Yup.
|
||||
|
||||
And we see even more of these Irrational Puts added to June 11th Op Ex contracts, more added into the Hedgie perennial favorite the July 16th contracts and a few more in the Jan 21, 2022 contracts. (Refer to previous post for the last analysis I did for these last two dates.)
|
||||
|
||||
Every day we are seeing more and more of these Short-Term put options come into existence, about 4-5,000 per day representing about 400 to 500,000 shares.
|
||||
|
||||
What does all this mean?
|
||||
|
||||
Short Interest continues to be hidden in Long-Term Low-Strike Put options as well as low-cost Short-Term put options.
|
||||
|
||||
In my previous post I did an analysis using a new criteria for what an Irrational Put is, a contract for $0.10 or less with high IV. Looking at today's newly minted put contracts, these are getting up to the $0.25 range on the high-end, although the *majority* remain clustered below $0.10 there are some few being added at even these higher ranges most likely due to some semi-random algo trying to hide these puts here without accidentally making it totally obvious that they have some specific allocaation.
|
||||
|
||||
What about the puts that expired last week?
|
||||
|
||||
Yes indeed. What about them.
|
||||
|
||||
Nothing. They expired.
|
||||
|
||||
After yesterday and today's powerful confirmation of the T+35, T+21 theory, I am inclined to think the Hedgies just stuck the Market Maker with them. Legally, the Married-Put is used to justify the creation of the Naked Short, the two allow the MM to remain 'neutral'. Ok, but what happen's when those Naked Shorts are still out there and the Put contract that was balancing them out expires? *The MM has to cover them.*
|
||||
|
||||
Not straight away, the day after Op Ex (the following Monday) begins the T+35 part of the FTD cycle. They will cover those shares 35 days hence.
|
||||
|
||||
The MM's are out there covering Naked Shorts on the 35th day, which would start spiking the price action so the SHF need to create *more* Married-Puts to create *more* Naked Shorts to again push GME down.
|
||||
|
||||
Today, GME shot up 20% and the Short Interest *increased*! The MM's are buying to cover which is spiking the price and the SHF continue to drive it down with Married-Put Naked shorts. The SHF have *not* started covering, still just kicking the can another 35 days down the road.
|
||||
|
||||
Implications for Short Interest
|
||||
|
||||
I had previously estimated SI using Married Put remnants at 172%, but now that we are seeing Irrational Puts being created *daily*, that estimate is very, very low. There are way more Irrational Puts in existence, *including Short-Term puts and also expired puts* than I had accounted for. By the time I finish adding all of it together the Short Interest is going to be north of 340% at a minimum.
|
||||
|
||||
Each week as these Short-Term Irrational puts expire, they are kicking off a batch of FTD's that need to get covered ~35 days later. Expired yeah, but the impact they had on the price action when they were first created persists, with GME trading sideways for weeks and weeks on end. Eventually they get covered (often at a lower price) and new Naked Shorts are created to replace them. In the meantime, every Monday a huge new batch of Naked Shorts is being created and *juggled* in a huge T+35 day loop.
|
||||
|
||||
Last week the equivalent of over 7.5M shares worth of puts expired. That doesn't mean every week they have been creating millions of Naked Shorts, but if they want to keep the price action from rising, sufficient Naked Shorts need to be created equal to the total retail buying pressure. How much is that? We'd need to go count all the expired Irrational Puts since Jan to get an estimate. If we knew, we could better estimate the true SI and the MOASS peak & geometric mean. Data from Jan did indicate this practice of using Married-Puts increased by 10x after Jan 28th.
|
||||
|
||||
I really hope Cohen just comes out and tells us how many shares are outstanding. That would be easier. :/
|
||||
|
||||
Sources
|
||||
|
||||
[Original Post on Married Puts](https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/comments/mgj0j1/the_naked_shorting_scam_revealed_lending_of/)
|
||||
|
||||
[DTC-005 Original Doc](https://zenodo.org/record/4718936/files/005%20-%20SEC%20SR-DTC-2021-005-2%20-%20submission%20of%20rule%20finding.pdf?download=1)
|
||||
|
||||
[Share Borrowing Program](https://smithonstocks.com/part-7-illegal-naked-shorting-dtcc-continuous-net-settlement-and-stock-borrowing-programs-have-loopholes-that-facilitate-illegal-naked-shorting/)
|
||||
|
||||
[Barchart Options](https://www.barchart.com/stocks/quotes/GME/options?expiration=2021-05-21-m&moneyness=allRows)
|
||||
|
||||
[Stonk Tracker](https://gme.crazyawesomecompany.com/)
|
||||
|
||||
Required
|
||||
|
||||
🚀🚀🚀
|
139
Crypto/2021-07-07-A-Crypto-Deep-Dive.md
Normal file
139
Crypto/2021-07-07-A-Crypto-Deep-Dive.md
Normal file
@ -0,0 +1,139 @@
|
||||
A crypto dive with the Jellyfish - 10 things about crypto that could be useful to know going into the 7/14 reveal.
|
||||
==================================================================================================================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/Dismal-Jellyfish](https://www.reddit.com/user/Dismal-Jellyfish/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/ofndb0/a_crypto_dive_with_the_jellyfish_10_things_about/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
|
||||
[DD 👨🔬](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22DD%20%F0%9F%91%A8%E2%80%8D%F0%9F%94%AC%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/7du1kjnfot971.jpg?width=320&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=59591863e05125f8bd644d116f2b5d85aabac612)
|
||||
|
||||
Good afternoon r/Superstonk, Jellyfish here to try and discuss crypto (ducks!)
|
||||
|
||||
1\. NFTs
|
||||
|
||||
NFTs on E t h e r e u m are what I think everyone is most familiar with already. They are unique tokens that can be used by creators to tokenize a wide range of content (not just art).
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/lvao1vkmot971.png?width=891&format=png&auto=webp&s=5ff19d7073639abdfc1d05d3be0cd694c65a3d84)
|
||||
|
||||
According to a report by decentralized app marketplace DappRadar, the average number of NFT sales rose almost 300%, from 21,815 per day in January, to 82,373 in May (so far). This number rose even higher as crypto prices started to plummet on May 12, with sales surging to almost 94,000 NFT transactions a day.
|
||||
|
||||
2\. Smart Contracts
|
||||
|
||||
Smart Contracts automatically executes code once specific terms have been met. They first started as programmable money but are decentralized digital legos capable of lending, borrowing, swapping, and much more to come.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/8cdhs7zqot971.jpg?width=1600&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=e66c3ecbd4cddec46073ad8f9f1d495667d96801)
|
||||
|
||||
3\. DeFi
|
||||
|
||||
DeFi: has exploded but in GameStop's case, I think it might be leveraged for flexibility and its non-custodial nature. With DeFi, GameStop can become its own bank and cut out costly middlemen. This is also why [I think GameStop should participate in this FDIC sprint](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/oevr9p/guys_the_fdic_might_not_realize_it_yet_but_they/)
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/t9wyuo4sot971.gif?format=mp4&s=233a990c2aea7d7c4e3f3f967b390d3bf6e674d5)
|
||||
|
||||
How it is today
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/dcbrp34uot971.png?width=729&format=png&auto=webp&s=5917e265b8dabec0ddd9e2f18eadf40f79015303)
|
||||
|
||||
How it could be
|
||||
|
||||
4\. Developers
|
||||
|
||||
E t h e r e u m is attracting the world's developers. Since Q3 2019, E t h e r e u m has gained more than 300 developers per month, with GameStop entering the fray with:
|
||||
|
||||
[Jordan Holberg @eviljordan](https://twitter.com/eviljordan), [Matt FinΞstonΞ | @finestonematt](https://twitter.com/finestonematt), [j@Cyberhorsey](https://twitter.com/Cyberhorsey)
|
||||
|
||||
5\. Interoperability
|
||||
|
||||
This is one area I feel many people are overlooking. E t h e r e u m will unlock potentially hundreds of billions of dollars in liquidity from POS blockchains through interchain accounts and interoperable staking.
|
||||
|
||||
[Maybe they work with NFT Ghost?](https://twitter.com/ghostnft?lang=en)
|
||||
|
||||
I see these guys as more of a competitor currently, but what if Dapper Labs want to take advantage of GameStop's brand loyalty customer base to market [Top Shot](https://nbatopshot.com/), [CryptoKitties](https://www.cryptokitties.co/?utm_source=dapperlabs), [Wizards](https://cheezewizards.com/?utm_source=dapperlabs), or [Dapper](https://www.meetdapper.com/?utm_source=dapperlabs) in the GameStop NFT Marketplace?
|
||||
|
||||
-[What if they partner with Age of Rust and let it on the GameStop NFT marketplace?](https://enjin.io/powered-by-enjin/age-of-rust)
|
||||
|
||||
0:00
|
||||
|
||||
2:13
|
||||
|
||||
Looks niffty!
|
||||
|
||||
6\. Metaverse
|
||||
|
||||
NFTs on E t h e r e u m will power a universe beyond our own like the Oasis in Ready Player One.
|
||||
|
||||
Virtual reality technology will power an augmented reality of virtual space and tokenized in-app purchases.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/ahbjvus6pt971.jpg?width=300&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=df069651e90d4016a1e16dbe2a3cd805b052b0eb)
|
||||
|
||||
7\. Decentralized autonomous organizations (DAOs)
|
||||
|
||||
DAOs are entities made up of any number of individuals who maintain the group's decisions in a distributed manner. Individuals can use tokens to vote and propose ideas they want for the protocol. I wouldn't be surprised if GameStop goes this route for governance. As a side note, I do see DAO's as the future of [r/Superstonk](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/) after MOASS for fairly and transparently kicking ass with tendies.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/nir4ttr7pt971.png?width=446&format=png&auto=webp&s=e5f5cf8ed0f17e5573ea0a38d24e4d95279d8176)
|
||||
|
||||
8\. Layer Two (L2)
|
||||
|
||||
There are a lot of projects working on layer two scaling solutions in an effort to scale E t h e r e u m---big argument against E t h e r u m as it stands now as it cannot process enough transactions efficiently to scale.
|
||||
|
||||
L2 solutions (where GameStop will live) focus on highly complex topics ZK-rollups for example (great to have Matthew Finestone!) as they have the ability to bring E t h e r e u m to 2,000 TPS
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/fzc9kfvapt971.png?width=744&format=png&auto=webp&s=2ddf370809298a5b6d8e468d0cab18aea924e470)
|
||||
|
||||
GameStop's head of blockchain comes by way of Loopring
|
||||
|
||||
9\. EIP-1559
|
||||
|
||||
I think the company should allocate a portion of that to staking e t h e r e u m and offering the ability to stake to GameStop's user base.
|
||||
|
||||
In the future, I believe GME values decentralization of ownership of our digital assets, which is why we should buy and mint NFT's on GameStop's Blockchain.
|
||||
|
||||
For the less blockchain familiar GameStop users, I think GameStop should open up the protocol to allow E t h e r e u m 2 staking with GME. Empower the players to secure the metaverse?
|
||||
|
||||
For the balance sheet though, if you're staking on E t h e r e u m 2.0, E t h e r e u m 's parallel PoS network, your operations are earning you a roughly 8% annual percentage return (APR). This number is higher than the rate of inflation that we covered as well! Yes, E t h e r e u m fluctuates in price, but as we covered above, staking will also further secure and make the network stronger, which in turn does the same for the metaverse!
|
||||
|
||||
EIP-1559 is in flight. What this means is that the net "issuance" of new coins minted is going to be dramatically lowered. To put it in perspective, the issuance rate right now is 4.5% per year, the estimates for the issuance rate after EIP 1559 is implemented are .5 - 1%. Why does this matter?
|
||||
|
||||
So b I t c o in issuance halves every 4 years right? (this is what makes the stock-to-flow model tick) Well, an issuance drop from 4.5% is the equivalent of 3 halvenings happening at one time. (4.5 cut in half to 2.25 again to 1.125 and again to .56). E t h e r e u m is already at a multi-year low supply on exchanges, once this happens E t h e r e u m will become more instantly scarce. People have dubbed this the "Cliffening".
|
||||
|
||||
Right now, a lot of the crypto user interfaces 'for the less tech-savvy' are more akin to trying to navigate Windows 2.0 30+ years ago.
|
||||
|
||||
Currently, if you mess up a transaction (don't include enough gas for it to get picked up by a miner for example), the transaction will just sit. The process of updating said transaction can be *cumbersome* depending on how you are set up, to impossible if you are hoping to just have an iPhone like user experience.
|
||||
|
||||
EIP-1559 is going to go a long way to help on the usability front for users.
|
||||
|
||||
Clarifying further, with EIP-1559, anyone transacting would have to pay a total transaction cost, which would be known beforehand, completely eliminating the need for a bidding system, where your transaction could get stuck as I described above..
|
||||
|
||||
I hope that helps and I didn't screw anything up too badly!
|
||||
|
||||
But to tie this back to inflation, (because you know I can't help myself!), this also leaves the deflationary action of EIP-1559 intact :)
|
||||
|
||||
10\. S t a b l e c o i n s
|
||||
|
||||
E t h e r e u m is home to many stablecoins, which have grown bigly with differenrt use cases. For example:
|
||||
|
||||
$U S D T: $62B
|
||||
|
||||
$U S D C: $25B
|
||||
|
||||
$D A I: $5B
|
||||
|
||||
They are very popular for use in DeFi, but I think will be relevant to GameStop as VISA will soon accept transaction settlement in U S D C.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/3v18fr8ppt971.gif?format=mp4&s=ae903e7f3b199528835d94cb78012ad615595494)
|
||||
|
||||
I hope this one makes it through Automod!
|
||||
|
||||
Additional posts you may enjoy:
|
||||
|
||||
<https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/o77tkp/is_anyone_else_totally_jacked_for_the_714/>
|
||||
|
||||
<https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/oc8xb0/its_a_problem_now_its_going_to_be_a_huge_problem/>
|
||||
|
||||
<https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/o9mk4q/does_anyone_else_think_comic_books_would_make_a/>
|
||||
|
||||
<https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/ob8mzm/jellyfish_putting_on_his_tinfoil_hat_for_a/>
|
@ -0,0 +1,170 @@
|
||||
GME NFT Scamcoins, a Retroactive on yesterday events.
|
||||
=====================================================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/Lucent_Sable](https://www.reddit.com/user/Lucent_Sable/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/oa1bl7/gme_nft_scamcoins_a_retroactive_on_yesterday/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
[DD 👨🔬](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22DD%20%F0%9F%91%A8%E2%80%8D%F0%9F%94%AC%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||
Hey Apes!
|
||||
|
||||
After yesterdays event where a user ended up purchasing a scam coin, I thought I would quickly write up a DD on how scamcoins commonly target uninformed GME investors.
|
||||
|
||||
This is my first attempt at writing anything that looks like a DD, and I will be focusing on a retroactive of the event and some things that you can look out for to prevent becoming a victim of these scamcoins.
|
||||
|
||||
If you think you are immune to being scammed, there is some interesting information on how easy it is to fool people on the internet [here](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dQw4w9WgXcQ).
|
||||
|
||||
Please let me know if there is anywhere where I can add more context or information, and especially if I got anything wrong, or was unclear. I will be periodically updating this post with information from the comments to make it a better resource.
|
||||
|
||||
1\. The anatomy of a scam
|
||||
|
||||
Any scam has three core components.
|
||||
|
||||
1. Get the targets trust
|
||||
|
||||
2. Convince the target to give you their money
|
||||
|
||||
3. Get away before the target realizes they have been scammed.
|
||||
|
||||
I will be covering these steps by giving examples from some common scams. I will then proceed to outline how I believe these steps happen in the new GME scamcoins.
|
||||
|
||||
- [Three-card Monte](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Three-card_Monte)
|
||||
|
||||
- A confidence scam where shills conspire with a scammer to convince a target that they can win money in a street game.
|
||||
|
||||
- [Forex Scam](https://www.investopedia.com/articles/forex/09/spot-a-forex-scam.asp)
|
||||
|
||||
- A scam where a "professional trader" has some "special formula" that they can use to invest your money in foreign exchange markets.
|
||||
|
||||
- [Tech support scam](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Technical_support_scam)
|
||||
|
||||
- A scammer calls a target and convinces them that there is a problem with their computer, which can only be fixed with their special antivirus software. The scammer will often request remote access to the targets computer, and may even request access to the targets bank account.
|
||||
|
||||
- [Romance Scam](https://www.fbi.gov/scams-and-safety/common-scams-and-crimes/romance-scams)
|
||||
|
||||
- The scammer pretends to be romantically interested in the target.
|
||||
|
||||
1.1 Trust
|
||||
|
||||
The first task of any scammer is to gain the targets trust. The target needs to believe that the scammer can provide something they want.
|
||||
|
||||
Three-card Monte
|
||||
|
||||
In this scam, the target wants to win a bet against the scammer in order to increase the amount of cash they have. The scammer gains trust by having shills publicly lose to them in the three-card Monte game, building the illusion that the target has a realistic chance of winning.
|
||||
|
||||
Forex Scam
|
||||
|
||||
In this scam, the target wants to earn passive income via investing. The scammer gains trust by showing the target some of the gains their trading platform or software is capable of. This is usually done through some form of internet communication, such as email or direct-messages on social media. Fabricated screenshots may be used to increase the perceived legitimacy of the scammer.
|
||||
|
||||
Tech support scam
|
||||
|
||||
The scammer pretends to be a representative of a well known company such as Microsoft or Amazon. They rely on the target trusting the reputations of large companies whose names they recognize, and the scammer may add a sense of urgency to the scam which can further impair the targets judgement.
|
||||
|
||||
Romance Scam
|
||||
|
||||
This is one of the more vile scams. The scammer builds the targets trust by pretending to be romantically interested in the target. The goal is to make the target believe that they have a genuine relationship with the scammer, and who doesn't trust the person they are in a relationship with!
|
||||
|
||||
1.2 Extracting the targets money
|
||||
|
||||
The second step, once the target trusts the scammer is to convince the target to give the scammer money.
|
||||
|
||||
Three-card Monte
|
||||
|
||||
This one is fairly obvious. The target puts forward money in a bet on the game, not knowing that the game is rigged and they cannot win. The scammer or shill may encourage the target to keep trying, as they "Just got unlucky". At this point the scam relies on the target believing that they can still make their money back, while they lose more and more.
|
||||
|
||||
Forex Scam
|
||||
|
||||
The scammer request access to the targets trading account, or requests that the target send them some money to get started. If the target is still hesitant, the scammer may request a smaller amount, and then provides some fake return on investment to further build the targets trust. The scammer will keep demanding higher deposits while promising that the system is working, until the target catches on.
|
||||
|
||||
Tech support scam
|
||||
|
||||
The scammer requests remote access to the targets computer, often under the guise of running diagnostics. Once they have "run their diagnostics", they will try to sell some overpriced antivirus software. To extract further money from the target, the scammer may call back at a later date, and either try to get the target to pay for a renewal, or offer a "refund" which they "over-pay", and then have the target send the difference back to them. Often the scammer edits HTML on the targets bank page, or has the transaction reversed before the target sends them the difference back.
|
||||
|
||||
Romance scam
|
||||
|
||||
The scammer contacts the target, who believes they are in a long distance relationship with the scammer. The scammer will tell the target that they have run into legal trouble, and need some money sent to them to cover bail or a lawyers fee. Other iterations of the scam may request money for fuel, gifts, medical bills, car repairs, or anything else you can imagine. The requests keep coming in as long as the target believes that the relationship is genuine. During this process the scammer will encourage the target to take out loans and max out credit cards, even borrow money from friends and family.
|
||||
|
||||
1.3 The Getaway
|
||||
|
||||
The final part of the scam is getting away without the target knowing they have been scammed, or not being able to do anything about it.
|
||||
|
||||
Three-card Monte
|
||||
|
||||
The target eventually realizes that they are not going to win, or runs out of cash. The scammer and shill may pack up the game in a hurry and run if the target is angry or indicates they may make trouble, otherwise they will just convince the target that they got unlucky. This scam is often targeted toward tourists, as this prevents targets coming to personally recognize the scammers.
|
||||
|
||||
Forex and tech support
|
||||
|
||||
The scammer will stop responding to the target, and will launder the money any number of ways. The target never actually knew the real identity of the scammer, and was most likely paying money into a stolen or foreign (or both) bank account.
|
||||
|
||||
Romance Scam
|
||||
|
||||
If the scammer is called out on their scam, they will often start gaslighting their target. Often, due to the nature of the relationship in the scam, the target will not believe that they are being scammed, even when provided with otherwise irrefutable evidence. If they do eventually catch on, the scammer often has the same anonymity as in the Forex and Tech support scams. The target doesn't know the scammers real identity and has little to no recourse to get their money back.
|
||||
|
||||
2\. The GME NFT Scam
|
||||
|
||||
At this point you are probably thinking: That's interesting Lucent_Sable, but what does it have to do with GME?
|
||||
|
||||
2.1 History of GME NFT
|
||||
|
||||
Apes recently discovered that Gamestop is working on something to do with Etherium NFT tokens. This was found through an official Gamestop website: [nft.gamestop.com](https://nft.gamestop.com/). This is our root of trust, we know that this is officially Gamestop, as it is on the Gamestop.com domain.
|
||||
|
||||
On this website, there is an Etherium address: 0x13374200c29C757FDCc72F15Da98fb94f286d71e.
|
||||
|
||||
Apes looked into this address on [etherscan](https://etherscan.io/address/0x13374200c29C757FDCc72F15Da98fb94f286d71e), and found the contract for a GME coin. We know that we can trust this contract at this specific address, because it is on the official Gamestop web-site.
|
||||
|
||||
A screenshot of the etherscan page is available [here](https://i.imgur.com/u2Pvega.png).
|
||||
|
||||
In the screenshot, the areas outlined in Green are things that we can trust as directly describing the contract and the creator of the contract. Areas outlined in Red are things that anyone can influence by interacting with the contract, we cannot trust the information in these as they are influenced by public activity. The area in black is an information block, related to what is selected.
|
||||
|
||||
From the information on this page that we can trust, we can determine the following
|
||||
|
||||
1. The contract was created by another contract: 0xce0042B868300000d44A59004Da54A005ffdcf9f
|
||||
|
||||
2. The contract describes a token called Gamestop (GME)
|
||||
|
||||
3. The code of the contract, which has been analysed by apes for important information
|
||||
|
||||
These are the facts about the contract that we know we can trust. [u/teacoat___](https://www.reddit.com/u/teacoat___/) consolidated this information in their [DD here](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nl0lk1/gme_token_info/).
|
||||
|
||||
Now that we have established what we know, on to the scam...
|
||||
|
||||
2.2 The scam
|
||||
|
||||
Yesterday, [u/samyall](https://www.reddit.com/u/samyall/) noticed a transaction involving the GME contract, in [this thread](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/o9967o/gme_just_transferred_42069_gmetoken_to_itself_on/?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share).
|
||||
|
||||
Let me be very clear: I am not accusing samyall of anything, and believe that they were deceived by the scammers.
|
||||
|
||||
Image for following discussion [here](https://i.imgur.com/cZHRbfI.png).
|
||||
|
||||
2.2.1 Building trust
|
||||
|
||||
The information provided in samyalls post shows information on the "Erc20 Token Txns" tab. If a user is unfamiliar with what this is, they may incorrectly assume that the information in this tab is from Gamestop, as it is on the page for the official gamestop token. We know that this is not true and that anyone can send tokens to the contract address without Gamestop approving the transaction.
|
||||
|
||||
Second, we can look at the address that sent this scamcoin to the official Gamestop contract. The address of this scammer is\
|
||||
0x133742073133c9aecdEC3a87e475C2945f23D6C0\
|
||||
which at first glance is very similar to the contract address\
|
||||
0x13374200c29C757FDCc72F15Da98fb94f286d71e\
|
||||
I believe that this address was specifically crafted to further build trust. The most recognisable first digits of the contract address and the scammers address (0x1337420) match, and many users would not look much further than that.
|
||||
|
||||
Third, we look at the name of the token that the scammer sent to Gamestop. This scamcoin is called "GameStop (GME)", which is very similar to the official token name "Gamestop (GME)".
|
||||
|
||||
Finally, we can look at the etherscan profile of the scammer address (image [here](https://i.imgur.com/yiRkV5U.png)) This shows that the scammer created 69,420,000 tokens. This is both similar to the number of outstanding shares ~70 Million, and a funny internet number (69 & 420 are in it). This further builds legitimacy as it is similar to what we would expect to see, and plays to our biases.
|
||||
|
||||
2.2.2 Extracting money
|
||||
|
||||
The scammer had convinced at least one member of our community ([u/shroommyBoom](https://www.reddit.com/u/shroommyBoom/)) was convinced by this scam coin, and lost about $30, in this [post](https://old.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/o99ms3/stay_calm_but_i_think_the_nft_is_now_available_to/). As you can see, the extraction of money from this scam is very easy, as all you have to do is convince the target that they want to purchase your scamcoin.
|
||||
|
||||
2.2.3 The Getaway
|
||||
|
||||
In this instance, the getaway is simple, as crypto provides both anonymity and irreversibility, so the scammer can simply disappear without anyone ever having known their identity.
|
||||
|
||||
3\. Key Takeaways (TLDR)
|
||||
|
||||
Be careful when interprating information about the Gamestop NFT, make sure that you can verify that you trust the source of the information. Just because the information is on the official contracts Etherscan page, doesn't mean the information is endorced by Gamestop.
|
||||
|
||||
At least one member of the community has been scammed by this scammer, and lost a small amount of money.
|
||||
|
||||
Scammers will try many tricks to get you to trust them, and separate you from your money. Don't fall for it, and if in doubt use the four-hour rule. Post on superstonk and give about 4 hours for other members of the community to analyze and sniff out anything suspicious. Remeber, nothing is urgent around here.
|
57
Crypto/NFT/2021-07-02-Clarifying-NFTs.md
Normal file
57
Crypto/NFT/2021-07-02-Clarifying-NFTs.md
Normal file
@ -0,0 +1,57 @@
|
||||
Clarifying NFT's: What they are good for, and what they are not
|
||||
===============================================================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/GooseG17](https://www.reddit.com/user/GooseG17/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/oc7ji4/clarifying_nfts_what_they_are_good_for_and_what/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
[Education 👨🏫 | Data 🔢](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22Education%20%F0%9F%91%A8%E2%80%8D%F0%9F%8F%AB%20%7C%20Data%20%F0%9F%94%A2%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||
Note\
|
||||
Etherium is an incorrect spelling. The correct spelling is filtered by automod. Since it is related to GameStop, blocking it is, in my opinion, absurd. Especially since it isn't even the correct name of the currency. For a sub that values open discourse and informed discussion, this is pretty disappointing.
|
||||
|
||||
Intro
|
||||
|
||||
NFT's have been getting a lot of attention lately due to the GameStop NFT, with a lot of the discussion demonstrating a lack of understanding on what exactly an NFT is and what it can be used for, so I thought I'd help explain some of the technical wizardry that is blockchain and its latest buzzword-craze.
|
||||
|
||||
Blockchain
|
||||
|
||||
A blockchain is a transactional database (ledger) that is stored and validated by many different computers. Imagine a bank statement that is verified and saved by thousands of different computers. This makes it virtually impossible to fraudulently alter if sufficiently decentralized. There are multiple methods blockchains can use to ensure that the network is decentralized to maintain security. Understanding them is beyond the scope of this post, but the major methods are proof of work and proof of stake. The main one relevant to GameStop is proof of stake, since the network they are using, Etherium, is upgrading to proof of stake in the near future.
|
||||
|
||||
Etherium
|
||||
|
||||
Etherium differs from the original blockchain design by implementing smart contracts. Smart contracts are computer programs that run on the blockchain, allowing developers to leverage security and reliability of blockchain technology for limitless possibilities. One these use cases are custom assets that do not require their own blockchain, vastly simplifying secure deployment. These are called tokens.
|
||||
|
||||
Token
|
||||
|
||||
A token is a a term used for user-created coins on the Etherium network, essentially anything that isn't the core currency. Etherium transactions are not free. The cost depends on the relative processing power required to complete the transaction, so keeping programs as simple as possible is important. Which is why there are multiple types of tokens instead of a single all-purpose type. There are two major types:
|
||||
|
||||
1. ERC20\
|
||||
The typical token of the Etherium network. They are *fungible*, meaning every token is entirely identical. Because token ownership is basic to keep track of, only needing the owner address and quantity, usage is simple and each transaction is inexpensive.
|
||||
|
||||
2. ERC721\
|
||||
An alternative to ERC20 tokens that provide greater utility. They are *non-fungible tokens*, so each token has unique identifiers and metadata. An ERC721 token can store many more data fields, making them comparatively expensive to create and transact. They are not a direct replacement for ERC20 tokens, primarily due to the added expense and complexity.
|
||||
|
||||
Now that definitions are out of the way, lets get in to what does and does not make sense for GameStop to use an NFT for:
|
||||
|
||||
Non-Fungible Token (ERC721) uses:
|
||||
|
||||
1. Collectibles Things like playing cards or in-game items
|
||||
|
||||
2. Licenses/ownership certificates Like video games, for enabling trading of used games
|
||||
|
||||
Fungible token (ERC20) uses:
|
||||
|
||||
1. Crypto dividends\
|
||||
Stocks are fungible, so why wouldn't a dividend be too? Not only would an NFT dividend be wasteful, it would also mean that our identical shares wouldn't net us an identical reward, which is completely nonsensical in my opinion.
|
||||
|
||||
2. Stock market shares\
|
||||
If the stock market were to be run on the blockchain, NFT's wouldn't just be wasteful or unfair, they would be completely insane. Storing billions of NFT's (one for every share) instead of thousands of ERC20's (one for each stock) would be vastly more resource intensive for no benefit.
|
||||
|
||||
Please let me know if you find a mistake. Criticisms welcome. Thanks for reading!
|
||||
|
||||
Smooth-brain simplification edit:
|
||||
|
||||
All the pros of a crypto dividend (like GameStop having sole distribution capability) remain with a *fungible* (ERC20) token. A *Non-Fungible Token* (ERC721, NFT) has cons that wouldn't make sense for this purpose.
|
@ -0,0 +1,44 @@
|
||||
One of the addresses associated with the GameStop NFT had a transaction today. Any wrinkle brains able to tell what it was used for?
|
||||
====================================================================================================================================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/clawesome](https://www.reddit.com/user/clawesome/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/ogjbcy/one_of_the_addresses_associated_with_the_gamestop/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
[etherscan.io/addres...](https://etherscan.io/address/0x10B16eEDe03cF73CbF44e4BFFFa3e6BFf36F1Fad)
|
||||
|
||||
[Question ❓](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22Question%20%E2%9D%93%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
## Relevant Comment/Answer by [u/nuclear-falcon](https://www.reddit.com/user/nuclear-falcon/)
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
**Official Gamestop NFT Contract "GME NFT":**
|
||||
|
||||
0x13374200c29C757FDCc72F15Da98fb94f286d71e
|
||||
|
||||
**Was created by "Creator":**
|
||||
|
||||
0x10b16eede03cf73cbf44e4bfffa3e6bff36f1fad
|
||||
|
||||
"Creator" is the account in question that OP linked.
|
||||
|
||||
*Creator is a contract itself!* If you go to the contract's [etherscan page](https://etherscan.io/address/0x10b16eede03cf73cbf44e4bfffa3e6bff36f1fad#readProxyContract) -> Contract -> "Read Contract as Proxy" you can get a little bit of information. The NAME field is "Gnosis Safe" which is a service in the form of a contract to force multiple people in a company to sign off on transactions before they happen, which is how you keep crypto at a company safe. [Here](https://help.gnosis-safe.io/en/articles/3876456-what-is-gnosis-safe) is a brief overview from their website.
|
||||
|
||||
If you go to the Creator address, you'll see a transaction from ~8 hours ago and then one that happened ~5 minutes ago (all from the time of writing). The "Events" tab on etherscan allows you to see which functions were executed.
|
||||
|
||||
Transaction from ~8 hours ago was to add "Add Owner" function execution. I think this means they added another person who can sign off on transactions.
|
||||
|
||||
Transaction from ~5 minutes ago executed 2 functions:
|
||||
|
||||
Remove Owner - to Remove a person/wallet from signing off on transactions
|
||||
|
||||
Add Owner - same as the one from ~8 hours ago that adds someone
|
||||
|
||||
**What I think this means:**
|
||||
|
||||
The NFTeam is adding new people who have rights to sign off on transactions with the official GameStop company crypto. This is a security measure that means no single person at the company can control/steal/send crypto to anyone else
|
@ -0,0 +1,59 @@
|
||||
An explanation of 'launchDate' 7/14 - NFT - EIP1559
|
||||
===================================================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/Hey_Madie](https://www.reddit.com/user/Hey_Madie/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/oh7ugx/an_explanation_of_launchdate_714_nft_eip1559/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
|
||||
[Education 👨🏫 | Data 🔢](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22Education%20%F0%9F%91%A8%E2%80%8D%F0%9F%8F%AB%20%7C%20Data%20%F0%9F%94%A2%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||
To define, the Gamestop NFT had a 'launchDate' field in the code that defined to 7/14/2021. This is/was referencing the now rescheduled Ehtereum network upgrades to EIP-1559. The update will now occur on 8/4/21 at block 12,965,000, between 13:00 UTC and 17:00 UTC.
|
||||
|
||||
For the record, they did not indicate or reference an actual release date for the NFT, but they did acknowledge that they want to get it right and they are not taking any shortcuts. So we hold-fast! It'll be worth it!
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/40ifzxp00aa71.png?width=591&format=png&auto=webp&s=1c07ad34c18c394d28e317761151bf682b65eb88)
|
||||
|
||||
Ethereum is set to go through a lot of changes in the future, first with the London hardfork introducing EIP-1559.
|
||||
|
||||
EIP-1559 is an Ethereum Improvement Proposal that, along with four other EIPs, will signal the start of Ethereum's 'Triple Halvening' event.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/jf99luysp9a71.png?width=598&format=png&auto=webp&s=edb0d225f8ed1869dcaa101bd99ef4353db668ab)
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/naajapyaw9a71.png?width=680&format=png&auto=webp&s=4aa295886b39a13d02b967b6011d79b4d3fb4a7e)
|
||||
|
||||
This 'tip' is then given to the Ethereum miner, while the base fee is burned, removing it from circulation. In explaining the reason for this burn, [EIP's authors said](https://eips.ethereum.org/EIPS/eip-1559):
|
||||
|
||||
> This ensures that only ETH can ever be used to pay for transactions on Ethereum, cementing the economic value of ETH within the Ethereum platform and reducing risks associated with miner extractable value (MEV). Additionally, this burn counterbalances Ethereum inflation while still giving the block reward and priority fee to miners. Finally, ensuring the miner of a block does not receive the base fee is important because it removes miner incentive to manipulate the fee in order to extract more fees from users.
|
||||
|
||||
What Will EIP-1559 Do For Ethereum Miners?
|
||||
|
||||
A collection of Ethereum miners and mining pools have voiced their opposition to EIP-1559. This has been collated in the [#STOPEIP1559 petition](https://stopeip1559.org/), led by Flexpool.
|
||||
|
||||
Explaining their opposition, the petition states: "[Burning transaction fees] dramatically reduces miners' earnings, people who invested their savings into supporting the Ethereum network."
|
||||
|
||||
Advertisement
|
||||
|
||||
Given EIP-1559 is yet to launch onto the mainnet, the reward changes for miners are currently only predictions, with the full impact unknown.
|
||||
|
||||
Of course, no matter the miners animosity to EIP-1559, this is a smaller change in comparison to the impact Ethereum 2.0 will have. The Eth2 upgrade,[ slated for release in 2022](https://www.gfinityesports.com/cryptocurrency/ethereum-2-release-date-eth2-roadmap-phases-is-ethereum-2-new-coin-serenity/), will see a full shift to [Ethereum staking](https://www.gfinityesports.com/cryptocurrency/ethereum-staking-what-is-it-how-to-stake-Eth2-ethereum-2-staking-rewards/) via a Proof-of-Stake algorithm.
|
||||
|
||||
Sources:
|
||||
|
||||
[Ethereum EIP-1559: Release Date, Meaning, And What EIP-1559 Will Do For Mining ETH](https://www.gfinityesports.com/cryptocurrency/ethereum-eip-1559-release-date-meaning-fees-london-hardfork-effect-on-mining-eth/)
|
||||
|
||||
[Ethereum price gears up for its upcoming 'Triple Halving'](https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/ethereum-price-gears-up-for-its-upcoming-triple-halving-202107071339)
|
||||
|
||||
[4 Common Misperceptions About Ethereum's EIP 1559 Upgrade](https://www.coindesk.com/4-myths-about-ethereum-eip-1559)
|
||||
|
||||
🦍Other community posts pertaining to this subject. 🧠 Together We Are Stronger! 🚀
|
||||
|
||||
Post about 1st tweet: <https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/oh5jjc/gamestop_nft_launch_date/>
|
||||
|
||||
Post about 2nd clarifying tweet: <https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/oh60ea/gme_nft_developler_clarifies_that_there_is_no_set/>
|
||||
|
||||
Post with both tweets and more discussion: <https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/oh613h/finestonematt_on_twitter_about_the_supposed/>
|
||||
|
||||
TL;DR: Gamestop Engineers verify that the launch date was referencing the now rescheduled upgrade to the Ethereum network to EIP1559.
|
@ -0,0 +1,144 @@
|
||||
A Deep Dive into nft.gamestop.com
|
||||
=================================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/schismsaints](https://www.reddit.com/user/schismsaints/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/of20ou/a_deep_dive_into_nftgamestopcom/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
[DD 👨🔬](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22DD%20%F0%9F%91%A8%E2%80%8D%F0%9F%94%AC%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||
To start, PLEASE take a look at the graphic as it shows the relationships between the GME tokens a lot more clearly than I've seen anywhere else so far - [GitHub - schismsaints/GME_NFT](https://github.com/schismsaints/GME_NFT)
|
||||
|
||||
Like many, I was intrigued when I heard about GameStop dabbling in NFT - first, through the [job postings](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/gamestop-hiring-blockchain-analyst-specializing-075700175.html), then with [nft.gamestop.com](https://nft.gamestop.com/). I did a [brief dive into some of the smart contract details](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nkxrhe/umm_guys_i_think_i_just_found_something/gzgpytb/?context=3) back when it initially came out but recently have gone much further down the rabbit hole.
|
||||
|
||||
I'll summarize some of the juicier bits and provide some speculation as to what it could mean as well as some resources to familiarize yourself with some of the details of blockchain, smart contracts, and tokens, but I have put together a [larger graphic](https://github.com/schismsaints/GME_NFT) in PNG/PDF/SVG formats visualizing some of the connections a little better (fair warning, I'm an engineer not an artist). I recommend loading it in a full web browser on as large of a monitor as possible. You'll understand why when you see it.
|
||||
|
||||
First, a few key terms/concepts.
|
||||
|
||||
Blockchain: In very simplistic terms, think of the blockchain as a ledger/record keeping system where each 'block' is a record and linked to the previous and next blocks in a chain. The process of adding a new 'block' involves computing and verifying prior information in the chain to ensure that nothing has been tampered with and that the full history of the chain is intact.
|
||||
|
||||
[Blockchain Definition: What You Need to Know (investopedia.com)](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/b/blockchain.asp)
|
||||
|
||||
Fungible: "being something (such as money or a commodity) of such a nature that one part or quantity may be replaced by another equal part or quantity in paying a debt or settling an account " (src: dictionary.com)
|
||||
|
||||
Token: This is probably the part most people understand, though there are some nuances. There are two types of tokens and a number of differing implementation standards.
|
||||
|
||||
- Fungible Token - ERC-20: A token that is one of a pool of identical tokens. They can be split, transferred, or exchanged and are commonly used as currencies. Most established mainstream or alt- coins fall into this category.
|
||||
|
||||
- [Cryptocurrency Definition (investopedia.com)](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/cryptocurrency.asp)
|
||||
|
||||
- Non-Fungible Token (NFT) - ERC-721/ERC-1155: A non-fungible token is a unique entity on the blockchain. There are no others exactly like it, and it has its own record of ownership, attributes/metadata, and cannot be substituted for another token identically. [CryptoKitties](https://www.cryptokitties.co/) is one of the most popular examples as they basically pioneered the ERC-721 standard. NFT artwork is another recently popularized example of this.
|
||||
|
||||
- [Non-Fungible Token Definition: Understanding NFTs (investopedia.com)](https://www.investopedia.com/non-fungible-tokens-nft-5115211)
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/hj74bjb47n971.png?width=300&format=png&auto=webp&s=b8fcbbce01a45c57fc93680483f9519a470ef057)
|
||||
|
||||
Non-Fungible Kitties!
|
||||
|
||||
Smart Contract: A smart contract is a way to automate 'stuff'. That 'stuff' can be any number of tasks but some of the most common ones include creating (minting) or destroying (burning) tokens from an available pool. This can be fungible or non-fungible tokens (or, in the case of ERC-1155, both/either).
|
||||
|
||||
[Smart Contracts Definition (investopedia.com)](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/smart-contracts.asp)
|
||||
|
||||
The GME NFT story started in earnest with GameOn Anon, the smart contract address posted at [nft.gamestop.com](https://nft.gamestop.com/)
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/x352qjj57n971.png?width=268&format=png&auto=webp&s=2c0d1ab1a3a208cd3b86a9dc799603a52463edd0)
|
||||
|
||||
Power to the Players
|
||||
|
||||
[0x13374200c29C757FDCc72F15Da98fb94f286d71e](https://etherscan.io/address/0x13374200c29C757FDCc72F15Da98fb94f286d71e)
|
||||
|
||||
There are a lot of interesting threads from the smart contract, the most well known of which is the "launchDate" variable which equals 04:20 PDT 7/14/21 (come on, that can't *not* be intentional).
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/bja10vi67n971.png?width=633&format=png&auto=webp&s=a2cb5526b08222b15f4cfb9b8284c5faac57585d)
|
||||
|
||||
The [owner](https://etherscan.io/address/0x10b16eede03cf73cbf44e4bfffa3e6bff36f1fad) of the smart contract is also interesting.
|
||||
|
||||
It owns the only GME ERC-721 token, 420.69 of the GME ERC-20 token, an E t h e r e u m Name Service record ([gamestopnft](https://etherscan.io/token/0x57f1887a8bf19b14fc0df6fd9b2acc9af147ea85?a=0x10b16eede03cf73cbf44e4bfffa3e6bff36f1fad#inventory)), and the 1337 [email signature](https://etherscan.io/token/0xc9ff785a33f2000652d0336e476a06ccd909317a?a=0x10b16eede03cf73cbf44e4bfffa3e6bff36f1fad#inventory) prefix used for several blockchain constructs.
|
||||
|
||||
It also received 0.00001337 E t h e r on 5/25/21 from andrwyng (wut doing Andrew Yang??)
|
||||
|
||||
Edit: Not actually Yang - <https://mobile.twitter.com/andrwyng?lang=en> - thanks [/u/No-Information-6100](https://www.reddit.com/u/No-Information-6100/)
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/hprlbkr77n971.png?width=759&format=png&auto=webp&s=efef7ea335484ab1cef7f0e86fce04a2602f48f3)
|
||||
|
||||
False alarm, but had me very intrigued when I saw it initially.
|
||||
|
||||
There are three GameStop specific tokens they appear to be working with, along with a number (>20) altcoins and other tokens.
|
||||
|
||||
- [GME Coin (ERC-20)](https://etherscan.io/token/0xd4596454a0e145842d1319d6921399e8e1622ad7) - Qty 12,000,000
|
||||
|
||||
- Possible online store/digital currency? Would be interesting if it functioned similar to a [stablecoin](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/stablecoin.asp) pinned to the dollar
|
||||
|
||||
- [GameStop (ERC-20)](https://etherscan.io/token/0x5b7d043ecb3a694069cc01e763159ea1bde0541d) - Qty 69,420,000
|
||||
|
||||
- They moved a large amount of this (>50%) to [Uniswap](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Uniswap) which in layman's terms can be considered as kind of an escrow/holding/forex account but in the crypto realm. Quite a few have been distributed from here to over 60 different destination addresses.
|
||||
|
||||
- Yahoo! Finance lists the 'Implied Shares Outstanding' for GME as 69.38M, which is preeeeeetty close to the 69.42M tokens minted here. Could this be used as a shareholder dividend, potentially exchangeable between GameStop and GME Coin/USD?
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/qm9w71ba7n971.png?width=336&format=png&auto=webp&s=8d3b8613f980d06adf1f2a7eca4bcfe792081704)
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/0jexo0qa7n971.png?width=1334&format=png&auto=webp&s=6f5ab609573617f84a25e54a5df67ff3a7a295cd)
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/yppy9h3b7n971.png?width=1347&format=png&auto=webp&s=fdeece7225eafafb264cfc3a3beb0e0e458a0573)
|
||||
|
||||
- [Gamestop (ERC-721)](https://etherscan.io/address/0x13374200c29C757FDCc72F15Da98fb94f286d71e) - Qty 1
|
||||
|
||||
- There is only one of these in existence at this point with no clear use for it yet, but there are some interesting possibilities I've considered such as blockchain-based share tracking (i.e. each NFT would have a 'share # X' value on it) or as a shareholder ID token ('shareholder # X'). This one has the least clear forward looking use case at this point for me.
|
||||
|
||||
Possible Business Uses
|
||||
|
||||
- In-store currency - GME Coin can be used as an in-store currency/reward system
|
||||
|
||||
- Crypto swap/exchange - Partner with an established cryptocurrency company to facilitate listing and conversion/exchange between stablecoins such as USDC or miscellaneous established coins or altcoins, and GME specific tokens. Use a GME app to manage a crypto wallet and exchange between various tokens/coins/currencies.
|
||||
|
||||
- NFT Collectibles - i.e. CryptoKitties, Gods Unchained, etc. Facilitate in-person trading (either in-store or via app to app trading) of digital items and collectibles between platforms.
|
||||
|
||||
- Digital game licensing - revolutionize DRM by hosting a record of your game license on the blockchain
|
||||
|
||||
- In-game item transfer/entitlement - Imagine if there was a way to trade/sell your CounterStrike skins in-person for cash, or exchange a cool knife skin for a new CryptoKitty
|
||||
|
||||
Possible Shareholder Uses
|
||||
|
||||
- Shareholder record keeping - have a token proving your status as a shareholder
|
||||
|
||||
- Share/securities record keeping - similar, but for shares. Kind of a stretch but could be a proof of concept for blockchain based trading
|
||||
|
||||
- Crypto Dividend - Provide GameStop (ERC-20) tokens, even fractional ones, as a shareholder dividend. Allow conversion to USD or GMECoin/USD to cash out. Provide a way to purchase or 'auction' GameStop tokens and you now have a shareholder perk with monetary value that could appreciate over time.
|
||||
|
||||
Here's the PDF of the chart/diagram I put together, the github link also has PNG and SVG versions of the image.
|
||||
|
||||
[GME_NFT/GME_NFT.pdf at main - schismsaints/GME_NFT - GitHub](https://github.com/schismsaints/GME_NFT/blob/main/GME_NFT.pdf)
|
||||
|
||||
TL:DR; GME doing crypto stuff. Lots of crypto stuff happening especially in the last week. Crypto stuff has lots of options, most of which will print money.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/m98p6jtc7n971.png?width=492&format=png&auto=webp&s=28d229a20045e33ea3b43ab8b8557830a0970a25)
|
||||
|
||||
I like money
|
||||
|
||||
Edit: to answer a good point brought up by [/u/haydonny1](https://www.reddit.com/u/haydonny1/) in the previous thread before I screwed it up with this edit :( - the alt coins could be sent by any random source and aren't concrete proof of anything. I still maintain that the three GME tokens are legitimate and all have ties back to the original Smart Contract either one or two levels removed. I haven't investigated the altcoin sources enough to be able to say whether or not they're being worked on by GME at this point.
|
||||
|
||||
0x13374200c29C757FDCc72F15Da98fb94f286d71e
|
||||
|
||||
- Is the address posted on [nft.gamestop.com](https://nft.gamestop.com/)
|
||||
|
||||
- Owns 69,420.69 GameStop ERC-20 tokens
|
||||
|
||||
- Owns 2,000,000 GME Coin ERC-20 tokens
|
||||
|
||||
0x10B16eEDe03cF73CbF44e4BFFFa3e6BFf36F1Fad
|
||||
|
||||
- Is the Smart Contract address listed in the source code of the [nft.gamestop.com](https://nft.gamestop.com/) smart contract.
|
||||
|
||||
- Holds 1 Gamestop ERC-721 token
|
||||
|
||||
- Holds 420.69 GameStop ERC-20 tokens
|
||||
|
||||
- Holds gamestopnft.e t h and 1337 ERC-721 tokens
|
||||
|
||||
Double Edit: I'm seeing a lot of debate about the ERC-20 GameStop token and whether it's related to a scam site (game-coin or something, I think it's been pulled down and I can't find an archive now). At this point after digging multiple levels deep, I'm seeing a lot of conflicting information in the transaction logs and Uniswap destinations and I can't definitively say whether it's a scam or legit. I'm working on updating the graphic and will include a disclaimer, though I do still want to keep it in the picture until we can definitively rule it in or out.
|
||||
|
||||
Big thanks to [/u/HandyBananaMan](https://www.reddit.com/u/HandyBananaMan/), [/u/Peteszahh](https://www.reddit.com/u/Peteszahh/), [/u/EngineeringDude2017](https://www.reddit.com/u/EngineeringDude2017/) and others for their discussion and links to other resources. I have more work to do.
|
||||
|
||||
I'd hope it should go without saying, but don't buy a GME token on something that's not a GME app :)
|
@ -0,0 +1,99 @@
|
||||
A Deep Dive into nft.gamestop.com - Part 2: Electric Boogaloo
|
||||
=============================================================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :----: | :----: |
|
||||
| [u/schismsaints](https://www.reddit.com/user/schismsaints/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/oh0zfe/a_deep_dive_into_nftgamestopcom_part_2_electric/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
|
||||
[DD 👨🔬](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22DD%20%F0%9F%91%A8%E2%80%8D%F0%9F%94%AC%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/lzsb9ky2h7a71.png?width=225&format=png&auto=webp&s=8d709e3952f111fa21f696a57a2c7a0104475412)
|
||||
|
||||
Hi, I'm Troy McClu...err, /u/schismsaints
|
||||
|
||||
You might remember me from my reddit hits such as "Why does AutoMod hate everything I do?", or [my most recent post from a couple of days ago](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/of20ou/a_deep_dive_into_nftgamestopcom/).
|
||||
|
||||
I wanted to update my previous DD with some recent findings, clearing up a few points as well as expanding on the research I've done thus far. As before, you can find the current DD image in multiple formats here at my GitHub repo - <https://github.com/schismsaints/GME_NFT>
|
||||
|
||||
To start, if you aren't familiar with basic blockchain concepts, [my previous post](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/of20ou/a_deep_dive_into_nftgamestopcom/) and [this one](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/ofndb0/a_crypto_dive_with_the_jellyfish_10_things_about) from [/u/Dismal-Jellyfish](https://www.reddit.com/u/Dismal-Jellyfish/) (seriously, it's well worth a read) will help get you up to speed on the different token types, smart contracts, and other general blockchain concepts.
|
||||
|
||||
An Update on GME Tokens
|
||||
|
||||
- [ERC-20 GameStop.finance scam token](https://etherscan.io/token/0x9eb6be354d88fd88795a04de899a57a77c545590) - Obvious scam is obvious, but finding this token gave me a link to be able to more conclusively debunk the 69,420,000 ERC-20 token
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/tcf7cmqnr7a71.png?width=256&format=png&auto=webp&s=c4e2a7928d64cbbfc523ab59b7ade084dba3eef4)
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/ami03a1ur7a71.png?width=249&format=png&auto=webp&s=72c594892dfb607b865f03f9ef8f28755837fe9d)
|
||||
|
||||
"The missing link"
|
||||
|
||||
- [ERC-20 GME GameStop Token](https://etherscan.io/token/0x5b7d043ecb3a694069cc01e763159ea1bde0541d) - Thanks to several of the commenters on my last post(s), I went through a deeper dive into the ERC-20 GME ('fake 1337420' address) token and agree that it is likely a scam.
|
||||
|
||||
- The two most solid pieces of evidence identifying the scam are:
|
||||
|
||||
- [0xfoobar directly disputing its validity](https://twitter.com/0xfoobar/status/1409740353738096641?s=21)
|
||||
|
||||
- [More than one address holding the confirmed scam token as well as this one](https://etherscan.io/tokenholdings?a=0xfb5484a510c48c307fd0253ee4d0a0866950f9a3)
|
||||
|
||||
- [There is one address](https://etherscan.io/address/0x7f8c1877ed0da352f78be4fe4cda58bb804a30df) which has ties to some potentially relevant blockchain companies (Cudo primarily) that had me doubting early on whether it was a scam, but on further research I've found a lot of links to Nigeria, Dubai, etc which, while not red flags in and of themselves, certainly don't line up with GameStop corporate hiring their own domestic blockchain team.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/1wimkjrp48a71.png?width=738&format=png&auto=webp&s=313c9516cfef292f5a4570e971a292ddce3810f7)
|
||||
|
||||
Largest single GME ERC-20 Token holder address
|
||||
|
||||
- [ERC-20 GME Coin Token](https://etherscan.io/token/0xd4596454a0e145842d1319d6921399e8e1622ad7) - I have identified [an external account](https://etherscan.io/address/0x503828976d22510aad0201ac7ec88293211d23da) involved in funding the GME Coin address, but the trail went cold after that. I can't confirm or deny that it is legitimate at this point; in either event, whoever created it went through more effort to hide their tracks than the other tokens. It does not appear to have been sold/swapped anywhere as of yet.
|
||||
|
||||
- [ERC-721 GME GameStop Token ("The One and Only")](https://etherscan.io/token/0x13374200c29C757FDCc72F15Da98fb94f286d71e) - I suspect this will be the only one of its kind minted, either as a teaser or POC token for further NFT work.
|
||||
|
||||
- One interesting possibility came to mind that - while not a crypto dividend per-se - could still have some interesting applications to securities exchanges or implications for the MOASS. Caution: Speculation/theorycrafting inbound
|
||||
|
||||
- Consider the scenario involved with shareholder voting, where each shareholder receives a control number on each brokerage where they hold shares. Each control number is associated with the number of shares held at a point in time snapshot.
|
||||
|
||||
- With ERC-721 or ERC-1155, a unique NFT could be minted for each shareholder/control number. The number of shares associated with each NFT could either be held in an external DB or as metadata (a field on the token itself).
|
||||
|
||||
- This would create a public record of the number of shares held by individual shareholders at a point in time and could be updated on an annual basis (or more frequently if desired) in line with shareholder voting standards.
|
||||
|
||||
- This also avoids the 'crypto dividend' hangups associated with Overstock as there isn't any money involved nor is there any way this method could prevent legitimate short selling - it's merely a public ledger of shares in circulation.
|
||||
|
||||
- Alternatively, if they do a crypto coin dividend instead of a crypto stock dividend like Overstock, presumably they wouldn't place the same restrictions on selling which was the main point of contention in the Overstock case as I understand it. See below for some reading on Overstock.
|
||||
|
||||
- <https://realmoney.thestreet.com/investing/stocks/overstock-is-paying-a-digital-dividend-and-it-gets-really-interesting-now-15037958>
|
||||
|
||||
- <https://www.irmagazine.com/technology-social-media/how-overstock-used-blockchain-distribute-its-digital-dividend>
|
||||
|
||||
[/u/No-Fox-1400](https://www.reddit.com/u/No-Fox-1400/) has a lot of the same thoughts I do in his posts here:
|
||||
|
||||
- <https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/ofiev4/the_man_with_the_plan/>
|
||||
|
||||
- The timeline here including Overstock was an excellent read, but the part I really want to call out is this
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/olsculkf38a71.png?width=678&format=png&auto=webp&s=dbdaefd50c398f333896a14a204bafaa79334fd2)
|
||||
|
||||
This is in line with my thoughts on timing - NFT platform launch on 7/14, announcement of dividend/crypto play on 7/14, and record date for a crypto based dividend on 7/24
|
||||
|
||||
- And here: <https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/ocvqlp/the_rules_dont_matter/>
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/89f8rnnw38a71.png?width=692&format=png&auto=webp&s=edc369dbfdb253baf183cdf837c9f725610a5a58)
|
||||
|
||||
Recent Activity
|
||||
|
||||
[/u/clawesome](https://www.reddit.com/u/clawesome/) and [/u/nuclear-falcon](https://www.reddit.com/u/nuclear-falcon/) noticed some recent activity on the original smart contract here
|
||||
|
||||
<https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/ogjbcy/one_of_the_addresses_associated_with_the_gamestop/>
|
||||
|
||||
I've drawn out these relations on the long format diagram, shown below
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/507nrqd258a71.png?width=530&format=png&auto=webp&s=26992c61f9346de0a90cc46bea65c17011018810)
|
||||
|
||||
Adding approving parties/other devs to the owner/approval list
|
||||
|
||||
Huge credit to [/u/HandyBananaMan](https://www.reddit.com/u/HandyBananaMan/) for being almost as obsessed with the transaction logs as me and pointing me toward several bread crumbs along the way.
|
||||
|
||||
TL:DR; Buy, Hold, Buckle Up. GME Blockchain team hard at work to bring us something mind blowing. I expect that *even if* a crypto dividend does not materialize, the [nft.gamestop.com](https://nft.gamestop.com/) project will be revolutionary and will function as a large catalyst for price movement regardless of a dividend play.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/i09xoc4e78a71.png?width=4808&format=png&auto=webp&s=03f646219e746517c83364692af14e96180906d6)
|
||||
|
||||
This is the PNG format of the diagram here for convenience, but the current version is always on my GitHub repo.
|
@ -0,0 +1,80 @@
|
||||
Feb 24-26: failed launch attempt and proof the DTCC must be the catalyst?
|
||||
=========================================================================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/Bladeace](https://www.reddit.com/user/Bladeace/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/mvvuhp/feb_2426_failed_launch_attempt_and_proof_the_dtcc/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
[DD 👨🔬](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22DD%20%F0%9F%91%A8%E2%80%8D%F0%9F%94%AC%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||
TL;DR: This never should have gone on for this long, it's too dangerous for everyone involved. Whales tried to solve this themselves and attempted to launch the rocket in February with a gamma squeeze. This failed, so they have no choice except to fight a holding pattern until the DTCC and the feds step in. I hold because I think they are all working hard to bring me a very large bucket of tendies.
|
||||
|
||||
I think the gamma squeeze in February was an attempt to launch the rocket and begin the squeeze. The shorts foiled the attempt by recklessly flooding the market with even more naked shorts. This terrified all involved and prompted the DTCC to begin the preparations required to step in. If my speculation is accurate, actors in the market cannot instigate the squeeze (they tried and failed). So, we wait for the DTCC.
|
||||
|
||||
I wrote the below speculation because I am having a difficult time understanding why the financial institutions competing against the shorts haven't instigated the squeeze. I believe they have a clear motive to instigate the squeeze and should have done so before the situation got this far. Accordingly, I suspect the February gamma squeeze to be evidence they did make such an attempt but realized the situation was beyond their ability to resolve. I think that it is this failure that resulted in their decision to fight for a holding pattern until the cavalry arrives to put down the rogue element.
|
||||
|
||||
The February gamma squeeze
|
||||
|
||||
During February the amount of GME shares traded peaked at a mindboggling high of four times the float being traded in one day. [This](https://www.forbes.com/sites/georgecalhoun/2021/03/10/gamestop-the-second-surgeanatomy-of-a-gamma-swarm/?sh=662560a24225) article from Forbes summarizes the volume of trades:
|
||||
|
||||
[Yeah, four times the float of a large company is fucking loads.](https://preview.redd.it/lo63uje4jmu61.png?width=972&format=png&auto=webp&s=db1f700de4a32bb02dc19c9fa61181a7e8bcac1d)
|
||||
|
||||
Before this massive spike in volume, slightly more than the entire float is being traded daily. That's already ridiculous, so the trade volume is spiking from ridiculous to insane. The same article provides this chart to illustrate how sharply it rose:
|
||||
|
||||
[What. The. Fuck.](https://preview.redd.it/lzezctvhkmu61.png?width=959&format=png&auto=webp&s=860b09112f8b610dc76e81bf579248f97f6b7475)
|
||||
|
||||
Unsurprisingly, the price goes up by a lot during this period. The author of this chart argues that this is because of a gamma squeeze which is, basically, when options are used to drive price rises. The following chart supports their assertion:
|
||||
|
||||
[Yep, that's a fuck ton of options alright!](https://preview.redd.it/bsyczqiflmu61.png?width=959&format=png&auto=webp&s=9bab12f029d2deba0b09529c6b326c8ae28eb683)
|
||||
|
||||
I think the author makes a strong case for these claims. By using options, the volume of trades was driven way up very quickly. The price rose accordingly. However, the author goes on to argue that this was caused by reddit users coordinating options purchases. I'm not going to spend time discussing that claim here because I think it's absurd1.
|
||||
|
||||
1: The author argues we can multiply the impact of our buying power on the volume by up to 50 times using this method. Even multiplied by 50 times, this is far too much money being spent in far too short a period to be reddit users. It's also notable that this level of coordination would require communication and I haven't seen any posts attempting to organize a huge coordinated purchase of options. Reddit did cause a similar volume in January, but doing so was *very* public. Our ability to move money is proportional to the visibility of our responsibility; if Feburary gamma was us, every user here would know that. The article in the link is excellent, but their claim regarding reddits behavior during the Feburary gamma is unfounded.
|
||||
|
||||
The gamma squeeze as an attempt to launch the rocket
|
||||
|
||||
So, there was a gamma squeeze. I suspect this gamma squeeze was an attempt to launch the short squeeze.
|
||||
|
||||
Before I continue, I think it's important to note that the wash sales which, we suspect, are being used to artificially lower the price are distinct from the phenomenon being discussed here. In this case, the massive volume was causing rapid price rises. Unlike the wash sales, I think the volume during this gamma squeeze was caused by shares trading from one party to another *without the two parties coordinating on a desired direction of the price.* I think one party was trying to rise the price substantially while the other was trying to keep it low.
|
||||
|
||||
It might help to remember what the price charts looked like during this period. You'll all probably remember this bizarre graph:
|
||||
|
||||
[The graph my broker provides wasn't this dramatic but it still looked fucky](https://preview.redd.it/gb4sy55ynmu61.png?width=1669&format=png&auto=webp&s=c4ddece1f2c8cf16a85fd4e4dfb5804b50d32d55)
|
||||
|
||||
I think what we're seeing during this period is two high frequency traders directly competing to change the price, one trying to drive the price up by buying all the shares and the other trying to drive the price down by selling enough shares that the other can't buy them all. One party is using options to flood the market with buy orders while the other is flooding it with sell orders. These orders change the price, the buys raise the price and the sells lower it. Given how quickly this happens it looks, on the graph, like there are some points in time with no price (the vertical lines); this is because there is a large range of prices being traded at during the moment that point on the graph represents. At least, that's my understanding of the graph. Someone in the comments may clarify further, or correct an error on my part, in which case I'll edit accordingly.
|
||||
|
||||
The key point isn't actually what the graph shows anyway. What's important is that the large volume on these days is caused by two parties competing to alter the price. One party wants to raise it and one wants to lower it. The party that wants to raise the price does so by buying up a lot of shares and the party that wants to lower the price does so by selling a lot of shares. Unlike wash sales, the parties aren't cooperating so this volume isn't just the same shares going back and forth. This is why the price rises over this period - the price rise is the result of one of the parties buying shares and then not letting them back into the market.
|
||||
|
||||
I think this period in February saw massive volume because a whale attempted to buy so many shares the price would rise high enough to launch the rocket. The only way for the shorts to stop this from happening was for them to sell enough shares at low enough prices. I think they failed because the shorts sold so many shares the price rise was minimized. Let me explain a little more to help clarify, if a friendly whale buys a million options to rise the price but the shorts sell enough shares to cover those options, the price isn't going to rise. Basically, if a friendly whale was sick of this situation and wanted to launch the rocket it could do so by buying a lot of shares to drive the price up, *unless* the shorts were willing to simply flood the market to match their buying spree.
|
||||
|
||||
So, if I'm right about this, the February gamma squeeze was an attempt to launch the rocket by buying so many shares the price spiked. They tried so hard the entire float was traded nearly ten times in three days: this wasn't a small effort, they tried really hard to launch the rocket. They failed because the shorts were willing to sell as many shares as they could buy. Well, almost - they still rose the price significantly, just not enough to launch.
|
||||
|
||||
This is significant because it demonstrates just how many shorted shares team short are capable of putting into the market. We already knew they could flood the market with a lot of these fraudulent shares. I think the February gamma squeeze showed our whales that team short would simply flood the market even more if they tried to launch the rocket. The result is stalemate, the shorts can't short enough to lower the price any further and the longs can't buy enough to launch the rocket. So, we trade sideways until something changes.
|
||||
|
||||
During this stalemate the shorts wash shares to keep the price from rising and use various shenanigans to offset their failures to deliver the fabricated shares they've sold. I think this is why the volume remains high after the gamma squeeze and through March. The high volume is the shenanigans of the shorts. Over this period the DTCC puts new rules into place that incrementally clamp down on these shenanigans until, eventually, we get the low volume numbers we're seeing at the moment. I think the low volume reflects the increasingly weak position of team short.
|
||||
|
||||
Notice that this would mean that the low volume indicates team long has another opportunity to launch the rocket. I believe that they have elected not to do so after seeing what team short was willing to do during their February attempt. I think team short flooding the market with a huge number of shorted shares terrified everyone involved. The more shorted shares team short releases, the worse the problem gets for every member of the NSCC/DTCC that has to help pick up the pieces when this thing goes off. So, team long decided to abandon any attempt to launch the rocket on their own and maintained a holding pattern while pressuring the DTCC to get their house in order. Another users post, [Why We're STILL trading sideways and Why We Haven't Launched](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/mu9xed/why_were_still_trading_sideways_and_why_we_havent/), expands on why we are still waiting for launch. My addition to their commentary is that I think the Febuary gamma squeeze is what convinced team long to wait rather than attempt to launch the rocket on their own.
|
||||
|
||||
This is a precarious situation for all involved. Every day this continues team short leaks more shorted shares into the market. Every day team long waits for the DTCC to prepare risks someone doing something unexpected, like leaking to the press. The only thing worse for the DTCC than MOASS is everyone learning about it before it begins. The longer this continues the more other members of the market will know about what's happening; eventually, someone will leak it to everyone. My guess is that everyone involved wants this finished with *asap*. I think the only reason it's still going is because of how recklessly the shorts fought during the February gamma squeeze.
|
||||
|
||||
It's my suspicion that the new head of the SEC intends to resolve this *fast*. I think he knows his window to handle this his way is small. If he does this right, he can be the person who stepped in and protected everyone from a rogue element threatening an outright system failure. But, that only works if he comes in hard and gets it done quickly. The longer he waits, the more it looks like his failure rather than him stepping in to pick up his predecessors mess.
|
||||
|
||||
Relating this to the wider context
|
||||
|
||||
I think [A House of Cards - Part 1](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/mvk5dv/a_house_of_cards_part_1/) is correct, the system is overrun with phantom shares because the DTCC is essentially running a fractional reserve security market without the protections in place to ensure its fractional reserve, of any given security, doesn't all get called up at the same time. I suspect that, over time, its members have issued increasing numbers of shares which means the reserves have become less able to deliver on the sales when required. In January, one of its members was caught out by this and forced a trading halt to prevent disaster. Unfortunately, for them, this made the situation worse because retail traders didn't sell. During February they expanded their short position in an attempt to lower the price enough for them to close.
|
||||
|
||||
The expansion of their short position in February and our unwillingness to sell forced the hands of other financial institutions who were not willing to watch the shorts make the problem even worse. So, they attempted to launch the rocket with a gamma squeeze. This would have hurt every member of the financial community, but it would have stopped the shorts from causing even more damage. This was an attempt to cut off the diseased limb.
|
||||
|
||||
The shorts fought back and went further than the longs expected. To avoid launch, they flooded the market with even more shorted shares. This showed the other financial institutions that they couldn't launch the rocket and the diseased limb had gone so rogue it was willing to bring the entire system down rather than be amputated. This is why I think the February gamma squeeze is so important. I think it shows that longs *did* try to launch the rocket. Which is important, because I think they have had a motivation to do so this entire time and our theories need to take account of that motive.
|
||||
|
||||
So, they turned to the DTCC and advised them they had to sort it out. For this reason, we get a growing raft of new regulations designed to prevent this from happening again and allowing them to resolve the mess. I believe the current low volume indicates team longs are now in a position to launch the rocket if they desire. I think they are waiting because the DTCC has shown they are taking action and the longs are willing to give them a little time to prepare.
|
||||
|
||||
As this has all transpired, I think the wider financial community has begun to become aware of what is happening. I think the unusual bank activity is them preparing for this. If this is true, launch is likely imminent. I say this because no one involved wants this to make it into mainstream media before it begins. They can't stop people from knowing about it after it's begun, but they *really* don't want to give the public notice. My guess is that [this](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/mvoi4h/gme_closed_001_from_previous_day_close_this_has/) recent post is correct and we're currently looking at the final preparations in the market.
|
||||
|
||||
Summary
|
||||
|
||||
In January, the shorts were going to die so they broke the market. In February, I think the market tried to correct itself with the gamma squeeze. In March, I think the DTCC took over and began preparations to solve the situation. In April, I think the feds are in charge and the entire finance sector is preparing for the hammer to come down.
|
||||
|
||||
(This is all *very* speculative and shouldn't be treated as financial advice! Please correct me on any errors and I will alter my claims accordingly. Thank you for reading my work.)
|
59
DD/2021-04-27-Method-for-Hiding-FTDs-using-Useless-Puts.md
Normal file
59
DD/2021-04-27-Method-for-Hiding-FTDs-using-Useless-Puts.md
Normal file
@ -0,0 +1,59 @@
|
||||
A Method for Hiding FTD's That Uses the 1.09mil Useless Puts Discovered by /u/defj
|
||||
==================================================================================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/eastrod](https://www.reddit.com/user/eastrod/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/mzgtvx/a_method_for_hiding_ftds_that_uses_the_109mil/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
|
||||
[DD 👨🔬](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22DD%20%F0%9F%91%A8%E2%80%8D%F0%9F%94%AC%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||
Apes and apettes, I'm jacked to the tits!!!
|
||||
|
||||
TL;DR the economic terrorists have given us clear evidence in my opinion that they are resetting FTD's for at least 109 million phantom shares per cycle using cheap OTM puts
|
||||
|
||||
I think I may have finally stumbled upon something that can help us in our efforts to discover just how deep a hole the short hedge funds are in.
|
||||
|
||||
Huge credit to [/u/dejf2](https://www.reddit.com/u/dejf2/) (sorry I spelled your name wrong in the title) who posted this earlier today:
|
||||
|
||||
<https://reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/mz7c7h/put_anomalies_pt1_were_127_million_synthetic/>
|
||||
|
||||
He found 1.09 million useless cheap puts being traded and then closed before the end of the same trading day and it turned on a light bulb in my primate brain, taking me back to an article I read recently while digging into some other companies that were victims of naked short selling.
|
||||
|
||||
<https://i.imgur.com/MSu2MOl.jpg>
|
||||
|
||||
This is a screenshot highlighting a section taken from this letter to the SEC - it is a good read but the relevant portion is in the imgur link.
|
||||
|
||||
Here is a link to the whole document if any other apes want to look into it:
|
||||
|
||||
<https://www.sec.gov/comments/s7-30-08/s73008-17.pdf>
|
||||
|
||||
The method for creating phantom (naked) shares goes as follows:
|
||||
|
||||
- Hedge fund (Melvin) buys a put (or 1.09 million puts)
|
||||
|
||||
- Market Maker (Shitadel) sells that put and is legally entitled to create and sell 100 phantom shares (or 109 million phantom shares) to hedge the put(s) they just wrote to remain neutral on the trade
|
||||
|
||||
- Hedge fund then sells that put back to the Market Maker except the Market Maker doesn't buy back the phantom shares leaving them net short on the stock and having pocketed the cash for the phantom shares that they did not need a borrow for
|
||||
|
||||
Now this is where I snorted a couple of the fat crayons and had a brand new wrinkle form inside my otherwise smooth brain:
|
||||
|
||||
The market maker could be using the method above (selling puts and then buying them back for the same price) as an excuse to create new phantom shares and then selling them to the short hedge funds - the ones trying to hide fuck tons of FTD's. This makes the short hedge funds look like they bought shares to clear their FTD's and then the hedge funds sell the share right back to the MM for the same price to create a neutral (net $0) trade while resetting the FTD countdown, essentially kicking the can down the road a little further and hiding 109 million shares of their short position from being reported as FTD's.
|
||||
|
||||
Where would a Market Maker and a short hedge fund likely conduct this trade? In a fucking dark pool where they aren't competing with retail for the shares of course; a potential explaination for the insane amount of dark pool trading occuring lately!
|
||||
|
||||
Let me be clear for the smoothest of brains - *in absolutely no way does this method help the short hedge funds reduce their short position.* They are not closing any shorts unless they keep some of the phantom shares in which case they are simply increasing the short position of the Market Maker aka Shitadel. This method only allows them to appear as though they have cleared their current FTD's while resetting the countdown. They then have to do this all over again the next time the FTD timer comes knocking.
|
||||
|
||||
This could be another valuable tell for just how big the short position is! Other methods are being used to reset FTD's, I'm sure, but this method, combined with [/u/dejf2](https://www.reddit.com/u/dejf2/)'s find of just how many of these useless puts were traded gives me a raging clue. This makes me believe that from this method alone, the shorts have created and bought back phantom shares to reset AT LEAST 109 million phantom shares worth of FTD's.
|
||||
|
||||
I hope this catches the eyes of some of some of the more wrinkly brains out there who can read terminal data and helps us get a clearer picture of just how fucked the hedgies truely are. As for me, I am more confident than ever before that the MOASS is inevitable. The tendieman commeth.
|
||||
|
||||
HODL 💎🙌🦍🚀🌝☄️✨🛸
|
||||
|
||||
Edit: tagging [/u/augrr](https://www.reddit.com/u/augrr/), [/u/HomeDepotHank69](https://www.reddit.com/u/HomeDepotHank69/), [/u/broccaaa](https://www.reddit.com/u/broccaaa/) our local FTD guru's to see if this new info can be used in conjunction with their findings on FTD numbers and reset methods that they have written such great DD about already.
|
||||
|
||||
Edit 2: Clarified my conclusion after seeing some good questions in the comments
|
||||
|
||||
*None of the above is financial advice, I just like the stock.*
|
160
DD/2021-05-13-Fed-Reverse-Repos-are-Not-Tied-to-Margin-Calls.md
Normal file
160
DD/2021-05-13-Fed-Reverse-Repos-are-Not-Tied-to-Margin-Calls.md
Normal file
@ -0,0 +1,160 @@
|
||||
Counter DD: NY Fed $400 bln reverse repos is not tied to margin calls. It's worse.
|
||||
==================================================================================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/ZKShao](https://www.reddit.com/user/ZKShao/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nbt1sp/counter_dd_ny_fed_400_bln_reverse_repos_is_not/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
[Possible DD 👨🔬](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22Possible%20DD%20%F0%9F%91%A8%E2%80%8D%F0%9F%94%AC%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||
Changed May 16th: Please see Update at bottom of post.
|
||||
|
||||
Today there is hype about an Italian financial news site reporting that the New York Fed has lent 400 billion USD to 39 financial institutes over the past two days. It concludes that big Wall Street parties have been margin called and are panic borrowing from the Fed to make margin. Link: <https://www.money.it/Fed-repo-miliardi-Wall-Street>
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/x2vo22t7cyy61.png?width=697&format=png&auto=webp&s=8bdb221c2f8ba0330f3a9e5601463ce51a2b2c4b)
|
||||
|
||||
Google translated screenshot of the news article
|
||||
|
||||
None of it is correct.
|
||||
|
||||
TL;DR
|
||||
|
||||
- The numbers are about reverse repos, which mean that the Fed is the one borrowing cash and providing US Treasury bonds as collateral.
|
||||
|
||||
- The numbers are about overnight reverse repos (ON RRP) which have same day settlement. The cash makes a roundtrip in the same day so cannot be added together: there will be significant overlap between the numbers of subsequent days.
|
||||
|
||||
- ON RPP rate is currently 0%, which means the Fed borrows cash at 0% interest and provides US Treasury bonds as collateral. The incentive why someone would lend to the Fed at 0% interest rate is to hold the bond, perhaps for short term shorting.
|
||||
|
||||
- The Fed has on March 16 increased the maximum amount of cash they will borrow daily from a counterparty from 30 billion to 80 billion per counterparty. Reverse repo transactions have increased daily since.
|
||||
|
||||
- It's not financial institutes borrowing cash because they got margin called. It's the contrary: it's them depositing cash to profit from babysitting holding US Treasury bonds.
|
||||
|
||||
- ~~which they perhaps use for nefarious purposes~~ ~~this is an understatement~~
|
||||
|
||||
- Please see Update.
|
||||
|
||||
Good day apes! This is my first attempt at a DD if you can call it that. I'm actually just formulating an in-depth reply to other daily trending posts:
|
||||
|
||||
- 20k upvotes: <https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nb9pon/european_financial_news_is_reporting_major_margin/>
|
||||
|
||||
- 11k upvotes: <https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nbg01m/regarding_recent_rumors_about_fed_bailing_out_hfs/>
|
||||
|
||||
- 8.3k upvotes: <https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nbbrg6/margin_called_front_page_moneyit/>
|
||||
|
||||
- 5.3k upvotes: <https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nbbg13/reverse_repo_loan_amounts_by_day_since_january/>
|
||||
|
||||
If I'm wrong then shame be on me and I will delete this post or leave it up for posterity, whatever the people deem best. If I'm right, a lot of people are getting excited about some news site that is wrongly interpreting what it means when the Fed conducts reverse repo operations: it's the opposite. So here goes.
|
||||
|
||||
WHERE ARE THE NUMBERS FROM?
|
||||
|
||||
So first off, what is this $400 billion figure coming from? Again look at the shared news article: <https://www.money.it/Fed-repo-miliardi-Wall-Street>
|
||||
|
||||
400 billion is the lazy sum of 209 billion and 181 billion (context: Italians call a billion a milliardi). Those numbers can be found on the NY Fed site here: <https://apps.newyorkfed.org/markets/autorates/tomo-results-display?SHOWMORE=TRUE&startDate=01/01/2000&enddate=01/01/2000>
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/phgs140fdyy61.png?width=1119&format=png&auto=webp&s=50cd1533a4e1000d7238f940ce59ad364e49fcdf)
|
||||
|
||||
The numbers are from reverse repos
|
||||
|
||||
Take note that the page contains daily summaries of repos and reverse repos. Nothing is happening in terms of repos (.000 abound), the numbers are about reverse repos.
|
||||
|
||||
WHAT ARE REVERSE REPOS?
|
||||
|
||||
I've only learned today what a repo or reverse repo is, but it's enough to conclude that the news site has it wrong. There seems to be some confusion today because of one definition on Investopedia, and another definition on the Fed site. But we are talking about numbers posted on the Fed site, so lets look at their FAQ.
|
||||
|
||||
Here is what the NY Fed's FAQ says:
|
||||
|
||||
"A reverse repurchase agreement conducted by the Desk, also called a "reverse repo" or "RRP," is a transaction in which the Desk sells a security to an eligible counterparty with an agreement to repurchase that same security at a specified price at a specific time in the future."
|
||||
|
||||
Source: <https://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/rrp_faq.html>
|
||||
|
||||
"The Desk" refers to the Open Market Trading Desk which represents the Fed. So in a reverse repo (RRP) the Fed sells a security to gain cash, but has an agreement to buy the security back. That's where we can already conclude the 400 billion is not being lent to Wall Street at all, it's being borrowed from Wall Street. It has nothing to do with margin calls.
|
||||
|
||||
If I'm wrong, correct me please, but here is a few more sources to back up this interpretation.
|
||||
|
||||
- <https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/overnight-reverse-repurchase-agreements.htm>"When the Federal Reserve conducts an overnight RRP, it sells a security to an eligible counterparty and simultaneously agrees to buy the security back the next day."
|
||||
|
||||
- <https://www.learningmarkets.com/the-federal-reserves-open-market-operations/>"When the Fed wants to extract money from the system, it sells Treasury securities to its primary dealers in a reverse repo."
|
||||
|
||||
Moreover, the reverse repos involving the reported numbers are overnight reverse repos, meaning the transaction is inverted the next day. Therefore it's also incorrect to just sum up the numbers: the 209 billion of one day and the 181 billion of the day before probably have a lot of overlap. So scrap that 400 billion number altogether.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/ygb2nqbrbyy61.png?width=599&format=png&auto=webp&s=26645b6faf328e475ad1436b39d351ab745e9d82)
|
||||
|
||||
Numbers are from same-day settlement reverse repos, i.e. 'overnight'
|
||||
|
||||
Until this part is just setting the record straight. I do have an alternative theory to propose.
|
||||
|
||||
Reminder: My personal stance has changed, feel free to entertain the theory but please make sure to also read the update at the end of the post and the referenced counter perspectives.
|
||||
|
||||
Remainder of the post is the original theory.
|
||||
|
||||
SO WHAT IS ACTUALLY GOING ON WITH THESE INCREASING NUMBERS?
|
||||
|
||||
If you look at the data again on the NY Fed site, numbers have been increasing steadily every week day: 154, 161, 175, 181, 209 billion. That can be seen in this graph, which was made by [u/xpurplexamyx](https://www.reddit.com/u/xpurplexamyx/) today:
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/wr801288eyy61.png?width=960&format=png&auto=webp&s=b4821e15abc01e14e0f4ea6401fe1cdbfe03daaa)
|
||||
|
||||
All credit to u/xpurplexamyx and her post at https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nbbg13/reverse_repo_loan_amounts_by_day_since_january/
|
||||
|
||||
If you look at the graph, you can see the numbers start increasing rapidly after March 17. Well something very relevant happened on that day. Before March 17, any reverse repo (RRP) counter party could deposit up to 30 billion per day at the Fed. On March 17, this changed to 80 billion.
|
||||
|
||||
Source: <https://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/opolicy/operating_policy_210317> and <https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20210428a1.htm>
|
||||
|
||||
Now assuming there is incentive for counterparties (that would be banks) to participate in the Fed's RRP program, it is to be expected that numbers would rise from that point on. Why did it increase gradually instead of immediately from March 17 onward? What is that spike on March 31? I don't know, hope someone can fill us in. Why did the Fed decide to raise the limit to 80 billion? I don't know either but it has something to do with that bRRR-man. I hope someone with knowledge of monetary policy can jump in here.
|
||||
|
||||
Lets talk about incentives. Normally the incentive for counterparties to take part in the reverse repo program, i.e. deposit cash at the Fed is because they make interest on that deposit. Otherwise, why wouldn't they rather use that money to make money? So normally, the Fed offers some interest, but not more than other banks. The interest rate for reverse repos is tweaked by the Fed to act as a lower limit to what interest banks charge each other, the latter is called the federal funds rate.
|
||||
|
||||
My crude attempt at summarizing this: the interest rate that the Fed pays in reverse repos can be decreased by the Fed to incentivize banks to borrow from each other, and increased to incentivize borrowing from the Fed. People that actually know economics can come shit over me now.
|
||||
|
||||
What is interesting to me and a bit surprising is that the current interest rate for overnight reverse repos, the ON RRP rate, is currently 0.00%. Source: <https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20210428a1.htm>.
|
||||
|
||||
Again, the interest rate that one would get for using the Fed as a daycare for their cash, is currently 0.00%. Yet participation in the ON RRP program is increasing daily, both in terms of money exchanged and number of counterparties participating as evidenced by those 181 billion, 209 billion and today 235 billion. The 400 billion number from the Italian site was summed up where summing isn't valid, but at this rate we will reach it soon on a single day!
|
||||
|
||||
What's the incentive? Well perhaps you want the collateral that the Fed offers, which in the case of the reverse repos we are looking at are exclusively Treasury Bonds. The Fed gets to babysit your cash, you get to babysit some US treasury bonds.
|
||||
|
||||
The incentive may be that when you park your cash at the Fed and get to hold on to US Treasury bonds, you can do stuff with those bonds for a day since you do own them until the Fed purchases them back the next day. Here are some things I can think of to do with these freely borrowed bonds:
|
||||
|
||||
- Lend them to short sellers for a borrow fee
|
||||
|
||||
- Use them yourself to short
|
||||
|
||||
- If anyone can come up with other reasons to deposit funds somewhere for 0% interest, receiving treasury bonds as collateral, please fill me in. I would like to know the least nefarious reason for someone to make use of this reverse repo program.
|
||||
|
||||
I mean, look at what's been trending downwards:
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/e2ply48ihyy61.png?width=853&format=png&auto=webp&s=85a103ff44d76ff96bec4f4498d2bf3878cd5bad)
|
||||
|
||||
Price of treasury bonds has been trending down
|
||||
|
||||
For more juicy cooking recipes with treasury bonds, please refer to the Everything Short by [u/atobitt](https://www.reddit.com/u/atobitt/). I'm not saying the Everything Short and this here are the same argument, actually I need to reread it knowing everything I learned today. What I am saying is that treasury bonds are shiny.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/vb55e9krpyy61.jpg?width=650&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=028788f1a02e5299329a2d00b65f7ea253a5d148)
|
||||
|
||||
And I don't even know what they look like!
|
||||
|
||||
Since the value of treasury bonds is trending downward and these financial institutes can borrow treasury bonds from the Fed free of charge via reverse repos, that might explain why so many parties are participating in this reverse repo program and why daily cash deposited at the Fed is ever increasing. Although this mechanism was made by the Fed as a way to withhold money from the market, in effect they are lending out treasury bonds for free.
|
||||
|
||||
They have quite the conundrum: the ON RPP rate is zero, which should be no incentive for banks to deposit cash at the Fed daily, yet they do. That means that babysitting treasury bonds is profitable and the ON RPP rate should be negative, which means institutes pays the Fed a fee to borrow those treasury bonds. But the ON RPP rate is also meant to be a lower limit for federal funds rate, which they don't want going negative.
|
||||
|
||||
If I understand all of this correctly, the ability to short treasury bonds is like an exploit that makes the reverse repo program ripe for exploitation. Financial institutes can borrow treasury bonds for free, which can be turned into profit with a little creativity, and the Fed can't charge for it because that could unintentionally cause negative interest rates across the economy.
|
||||
|
||||
Please let me know your thoughts. I do not have much confidence in this theory, but it's the only one I could come up with to explain things that otherwise don't make sense to me.
|
||||
|
||||
Why did the Fed increase the daily limit for any RRP counterparty from 30 billion to 80 billion?
|
||||
|
||||
Can the reverse repo program be used as an exploit to borrow treasury bonds for free and then short the bonds using them? If not, why are banks participating in the reverse repo program at 0.00% interest?
|
||||
|
||||
Why is the ON RPP rate 0.00%, what's the objective? Does it make sense for the Fed to set it at 0.00% as opposed to negative?
|
||||
|
||||
Update: Mostly harmless
|
||||
|
||||
I asked for opposing perspectives to my tinfoil hat theory and received several. Please see [u/usefully_useless](https://www.reddit.com/u/usefully_useless/)'s [reply](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nbt1sp/counter_dd_ny_fed_400_bln_reverse_repos_is_not/gy7zdhr/?utm_source=reddit&utm_medium=web2x&context=3) for a counter perspective that this is just the money market working as intended. The fact that we're seeing record numbers in reverse repos day by day can be explained by record numbers of excess cash. Incentive to store at the cash at the Fed at 0% is due to the obligation of money market funds to lend (forbidden to hoard). Lending to other financial institutions is currently not as competitive as usual (overnight interest only 0.01% on average), so there are clear reasons to park excess cash at the Fed (low overhead, zero insolvency risk).
|
||||
|
||||
On the other side of the equation, [u/jsmar18](https://www.reddit.com/u/jsmar18/) stressed the role of the Fed in their [reply](https://www.reddit.com/user/jsmar18/) and I would like to highlight that although I posed the question 'why would the Fed do x', I meant it as a general inquiry and not an accusation of suspicion. However read his summary of RRP history and Fed goals. Fed actions sus? No, in line with their monetary policy and their hyperfocus on controlling inflation.
|
||||
|
||||
[u/HotBoyFF](https://www.reddit.com/u/HotBoyFF/) also remarked with his experience that it's likely not daily short selling, but it could be that the financial institutions desperately need treasury securities for something other, such as reporting reasons. [u/jsmar18](https://www.reddit.com/u/jsmar18/) in their reply also linked some good information on that. Treasuries are certainly used for 'window-dressing' (cooking books legally). I found this study on that subject if anyone is interested: <https://www.aeaweb.org/conference/2018/preliminary/paper/KdB9i9QE>
|
||||
|
||||
A popular question was: does this align with [u/atobitt](https://www.reddit.com/u/atobitt/)'s [Everything Short](https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/comments/mgucv2/the_everything_short/)? Now that I believe that it's mostly money market funds using the reverse repo program, who cannot directly in a legal way tunnel assets to hedge funds, I think it is more likely that hedge funds would just naked short over exploiting the reverse repo program. The original theory aligned with Everything Short, my updated stance just says: The NY Fed's reverse repo program is probably not an efficient way for hedgies to implement the Everything Short. Here is a little snack that does support the Everything Short, which is [JPow's Q&A from April 27-28](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcpresconf20210428.htm) time 47:00. "As you know at the beginning of this recent crisis, there was such a demand for selling treasuries, including by foreign central banks, that really the dealers could not handle the volume." Insane demand so the dealers couldn't handle it, could that have included naked short selling? Likely.
|
||||
|
||||
But while we should keep an eye on Citadel and any parties trying to short *attack* the US treasuries, I don't believe Citadel is overleveraged in naked shorting US treasuries because retail and whales catching a falling GME was the big surprise to them. In US treasuries, the 52wk high-low (for example TLT: 177 - 136) is much tighter than GME (483 - 3.77) and the market for treasuries is much more resilient. So US treasuries no squeeze potential in case you were considering it (and I know some of you apes did). The ball is still GME.
|
@ -0,0 +1,116 @@
|
||||
Findings from my analysis of 605 data: Huge short position opened in January. Expanded in February and March. Has not been closed.
|
||||
==================================================================================================================================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/Bladeace](https://www.reddit.com/user/Bladeace/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nc1h4o/findings_from_my_analysis_of_605_data_huge_short/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
[DD 👨🔬](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22DD%20%F0%9F%91%A8%E2%80%8D%F0%9F%94%AC%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||
TA;DR: I looked at the 605 data - Citadel's short position is so huge it's distorted the order flow. It's so massive you can see it merely by looking at where the GME orders are being executed. It also shows they haven't closed.
|
||||
|
||||
TL;DR: Opening a huge naked short position requires market maker shenanigans. Leaving it unclosed requires further market maker fucketry. Both of these should be reflected in the proportion of GME shares executed at various market centers. I looked, it is. A market maker closing a massive short position should be reflected too. I looked, it isn't.
|
||||
|
||||
I have been examining the order execution data for market centers handling GME order executions, read on for my findings. Citadel appears to have taken a *massive* short position in Gamestop in January. It looks like they continued to expand this short position via NASDAQ during February and March. They do not seem to have closed this position.
|
||||
|
||||
Opening a massive naked short position in a very short period of time requires abusing market maker privileges. Doing this would result in distorting the order flow. Market centers where the shorting is taking place would see a spike in the proportion of the shares they were executing for the security being shorted. A market maker closing a massive position would cause the opposite. So, if Citadel has opened a huge short position and not closed it we should see evidence of this in the order flow. I looked at the 605 reports and found exactly this.
|
||||
|
||||
According to my analysis of the order flow, Citadel has opened a huge short position, very quickly, in January, expanded it since then, and hasn't closed it. Please read the following and come to your own conclusions on the quality of my analysis. This is not financial advice. I am an ape on a large dose of Ritalin.
|
||||
|
||||
Important background information on the special privileges of market makers when shorting *(OK TO SKIP)*:
|
||||
|
||||
When opening a short position in your capacity as a market maker you do so by covering a buy order with your own capital. So, an order comes in for a security and you cover it, which is a way of saying 'yes, I'll sell that stock at X price' even though you don't already have a seller lined up to sell the share at that price. This is not uncommon, it's definitely not illegal, and it's very helpful to the market. In fact, one of the reasons market makers exist is to sell shares they haven't yet lined up a seller for. This allows the market to flow smoothly as sales can happen quickly. It's expected that the market maker will line up a seller for the share you brought from them very soon afterwards (often within seconds). However, they are not required to do so. Instead of lining up a seller for the purchase you just made from them, the market maker can take on a short position for that share (they are 'short' the share they sold you, so you essentially have an IOU from them).
|
||||
|
||||
When shorting in this manner, the market maker gets special privileges under regulation [SHO §§ 242.200 - 242.204](https://www.law.cornell.edu/cfr/text/17/part-242) which allow them to short in cases where others cannot. Regulation [242.203](https://www.law.cornell.edu/cfr/text/17/242.203) allows market makers to be exempt from some restrictions when engaging in market making activities and regulation [242.204](https://www.law.cornell.edu/cfr/text/17/242.204) allows some leniency for failures to deliver when the transaction was for market making purposes. Essentially, the regulations covering short sales provide some leeway for short selling while market making. This is good, in theory, because it keeps the market flowing smoothly.
|
||||
|
||||
The SEC explains the importance of market makers shorting [here](https://www.sec.gov/investor/pubs/regsho.htm) where they explain "market makers must sell a security to a buyer even when there are temporary shortages of that security available in the market". See the SEC link for a further explanation, they do a fair job of explaining it in section II of that link. The key point is that naked short sales by market makers are not an accident, they are a feature of the market.
|
||||
|
||||
The MOASS theory *(OK TO SKIP)*:
|
||||
|
||||
Citadel has opened a *huge* short position in GameStop and hasn't closed it. The position was large in 2020, but expanded significantly in January of 2021 and continued to expand during February and March (I do not discuss any points after March as my data ends there). This short position is so large that it is multiple times the outstanding shares. Opening such a large short position, so quickly, requires that most of the short positions are naked.
|
||||
|
||||
This is the theory I set out to test - has anyone opened a large naked short position during January and then expanded it during February and March?
|
||||
|
||||
Order flow data *(OK TO SKIP)*:
|
||||
|
||||
[SEC rule 605](https://www.sec.gov/rules/final/34-43590.htm) requires market centers to release data on the orders they execute. This data excludes most retail sales and multiple forms of conditional sales. However, it does include a substantial portion of the volume, enough to give us information on which market center is executing orders for a particular security during a given month. Crucially, for my purposes, it allows us to identify broad trends in the order flow between these market centers. In most cases, this data is not very helpful because it is missing most of the interesting information (for example, it won't distinguish between short and long sales). However, in my case it's perfect because I do not want to rely on any information except the volume - I don't want my findings to rely on Citadel accurately reporting anything else.
|
||||
|
||||
It's worth stressing that *rule 605 data excludes most retail orders*. This is important for us because we already know Citadel is handling most GME retail orders. The short position Citadel has, supposedly, opened is so huge that the distortion in order flow caused would extend beyond retail orders, which makes 605 data the perfect place to look.
|
||||
|
||||
Order flow data and the MOASS theory *(READ THIS)*:
|
||||
|
||||
The MOASS theory isn't just about a short position, it's about a *huge* short position. So huge that it can only have been created by a market maker abusing their naked shorting privileges. This would require them to sell the security they are shorting for a cheaper price than other sellers on the market at a large scale. Accordingly, more of the orders for the security in question would be executed by the market maker doing the shorting.
|
||||
|
||||
In most cases the proportion of orders being executed is going to remain fairly stable because the selling pressure is going to be widely dispersed. If a share is being sold for X price at one market center, it'll be sold at a similar enough price at the other market centers too. Sellers will gravitate towards the market center with the best price, so the prices remain almost identical. However, if one of the market center's is driving the selling pressure by selling for a cheaper price than everyone else, the other market centers won't be getting sell orders low enough to compete and they will lose out on the volume. Accordingly, if the number of short positions being opened at a particular market center spiked during January, we should see the proportion of orders being executed at that market center spike too.
|
||||
|
||||
The same is true for closing a massive short position. If a market center is buying up a huge amount of shares, there will be a drop in the number of buy orders they execute (because they're buying the shares themselves rather than selling them to others). The market center will also be reaching out to other centers to buy from them, which will raise the proportion of volume to those centers.
|
||||
|
||||
So, my prediction is simple: if a market maker is opening a massive amount of naked shorts very quickly, they will have a higher proportion of the order execution volume. Conversely, if a market maker is closing a massive amount of naked shorts very quickly, they will have a lower proportion of the order execution volume.
|
||||
|
||||
How the data should look in the three possible cases:
|
||||
|
||||
*Hypothesis 1* - Citadel shorted GME a lot in January and then continued to do so through February and March:
|
||||
|
||||
1. The proportion of orders being executed by Citadel will spike in January.
|
||||
|
||||
2. The proportion of orders being executed by Citadel will not go below the baseline in February or March.
|
||||
|
||||
3. The proportion of orders being executed by NADAQ or CBOE will spike in February and March (but probably not at both centers).
|
||||
|
||||
4. The NADAQ or CBOE spike, if it exists, will be accompanied by an anomalous number of their orders being executed outside of their venue (an artifact of an abrupt shift in order flow without adequate preparation by the market maker responsible).
|
||||
|
||||
*Hypothesis 2* - Citadel opened a large short position in January and then closed it during February:
|
||||
|
||||
1. The proportion of orders being executed by Citadel will spike in January.
|
||||
|
||||
2. The proportion of orders being executed by Citadel will drop below the baseline in February.
|
||||
|
||||
3. The proportion of orders being executed by the other exchanges will all rise, with Citadel's lost share being shared approximately equally (as it buys up all it can).
|
||||
|
||||
*Hypothesis 3* - Citadel opened a large short position in January and then closed it in January or they never opened a large short position at all:
|
||||
|
||||
1. The proportion of orders being executed by Citadel will remain at baseline levels.
|
||||
|
||||
Notes on Citadel and NASDAQ/CBOE spikes or drops:
|
||||
|
||||
MOASS theory implies that Citadel would have been absolutely hammered in January during the massive influx of buying pressure and the threat of Melvin being forced into closing their position and beginning a squeeze. Accordingly, they would have been drawing all of the order volume to them by shorting all the orders they could to mitigate the upwards price pressure. This would result in the proportion of orders executed at Citadel spiking during January.
|
||||
|
||||
MOASS theory implies that Citadel would have been expanding their short position in February and March while also avoiding their delivery obligations for the shorts opened in January. Expanding their short positions and opening new short positions to defer existing short positions can be accomplished by utilising two market centers with Citadel operating as a market maker in both. Essentially, Citadel could use its own market center and its privileges as market maker (for GME) at a second market center to make a market for itself. This would allow it to continue opening short positions while also shuffling existing short positions through the market. This would result in the proportion of orders executed at CBOE or NASDAQ to spike during February and March. I suspect Citadel would use either CBOE or NASDAQ for this because they are a market maker at both. I do not think they would use the NYSE for this as that exchange allows its market makers less latitude (and makes them compete against one another to a greater extent). NASDAQ is the most likely candidate as, prior to 2020, it does not execute many GME orders which allows Citadel a freer reign over any such orders that suddenly begin coming through that center.
|
||||
|
||||
MOASS theory implies that Citadel would not have been covering their short position throughout this period. Closing a huge short position would cause a drop in the orders being executed at that center (because the center is buying instead of selling and will buy from other centers too). Accordingly, we should not see Citadel's proportion of order execution drop below the baseline levels.
|
||||
|
||||
Proportion of GME shares executed at market centers *(READ THIS)*:
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/anepludcx0z61.png?width=713&format=png&auto=webp&s=0f8e55d6589f05bc2d9b1968d75e757f07a66c65)
|
||||
|
||||
As you can see, the proportion of shares being executed at Citadel's market center spikes in January, which is consistent with hypothesis 1 and inconsistent with hypothesis 3. The proportion of shares being executed at NASDAQ spikes in February and March which is also consistent with hypothesis 1. There is no drop below baseline in the proportion of shares executed at Citadel's market center, which is inconsistent with hypothesis 2.
|
||||
|
||||
The proportion of GME shares being executed by the major market centers, as reported under rule 605 data, is consistent with what we would expect if a market center were opening a huge short position in January and then using their market maker status at a second market center to expand and obscure that short position during February and March.
|
||||
|
||||
Related speculation:
|
||||
|
||||
Notice the relationship between the drops/spikes in proportion of shares executed at Citadel and NASDAQ. This is consistent with Citadel being the market maker for GME at both. I suspect that the sharp changes in where these orders are being executed reflects Citadel's attempts to open, expand, and manage their short position. The best places for them to do this are their own market center and NASDAQ, which matches the changes in order flow. I am hoping to gain access to historical NASDAQ level 2 data for this period which may show which of their designated market makers is responsible for their GME executions during this time period. Unfortunately I do not have this data yet, but I have reached out to NASDAQ and others who may be able to provide me with this data soon.
|
||||
|
||||
Proportion of covered shares executed at alternative venues *(OK TO SKIP):*
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/b1pefghhx0z61.png?width=686&format=png&auto=webp&s=af51e5492c62c779eb9882f8ebdae69ffb1ea147)
|
||||
|
||||
As you can see, the spike of shares being executed at NASDAQ in February is accompanied by a spike in the proportion of orders being covered by NASDAQ but executed at another venue. This is consistent with hypothesis 1, it may indicate the orders being executed by a market maker abruptly moving their execution of a large number of trades from one center to another.
|
||||
|
||||
Related speculation:
|
||||
|
||||
This may be related to an attempt by Citadel to market make for themselves and push the price lower. Fighting back the February gamma may also be a factor.
|
||||
|
||||
Proportion of shares reported under rule 605 compared to total volume *(OK TO SKIP)*:
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/k7e578csx0z61.png?width=817&format=png&auto=webp&s=e9ee738f2c85938b38cc1dfccd39d05e662318c0)
|
||||
|
||||
I am using 605 data because I believe it to be the most reliable data we have access to. However, it is possible the 605 data could be misreported. Conveniently, we can check to see whether such misreporting is likely by comparing the number of shares being reported under the 605 data to the overall volume for the same period. If there were a sudden drop in the proportion of the GME volume reported under 605, it suggests there may be a reporting error. As you can see, I found no evidence of such an error. This doesn't mean there wasn't misreporting, but it allows me to continue regarding the 605 data as the most reliable we have access to.
|
||||
|
||||
Thank you for reading
|
||||
|
||||
Thank you for reading my analysis. As I mentioned above, I have more data coming. I have also reached out to relevant experts who might allow me to expand, clarify, or correct my findings. I will update this post accordingly. There may be a follow up post if I have additional findings worth sharing.
|
||||
|
||||
*Please be aware that this is not financial advice and all conclusions I have given are tentative. My findings are limited by my own shortcomings, which are numerous.*
|
421
DD/2021-05-20-Go-No-Go-Launch-Checklist-Update.md
Normal file
421
DD/2021-05-20-Go-No-Go-Launch-Checklist-Update.md
Normal file
@ -0,0 +1,421 @@
|
||||
UPDATE -- Go / No-Go For Launch - The checklist keeping GME on the launchpad.
|
||||
=============================================================================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/nothingbuttherainsir](https://www.reddit.com/user/nothingbuttherainsir/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nhh0f1/update_go_nogo_for_launch_the_checklist_keeping/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
[Possible DD 👨🔬](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22Possible%20DD%20%F0%9F%91%A8%E2%80%8D%F0%9F%94%AC%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||
*TL;DR:*\
|
||||
DTCC / OCC / ICC etc. & Wall St want key things in place before GME unwinds, and we're now looking at a list that's been mostly checked off. This rocket is just about cleared for launch.
|
||||
|
||||
*Last updated: 2021-06-23* | [Original post from 2021-04-22](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/mvq6rs/go_nogo_for_launch_the_dtcc_checklist_keeping_gme/)
|
||||
|
||||
Go / No-Go For Launch
|
||||
|
||||
Opinion - Status: Hold ❌\
|
||||
*We're on a scheduled hold. Preliminary system checks are good enough to launch, and now we are being held for atmospheric conditions to be just right.*
|
||||
|
||||
*GME ignition needs to appear from the outside to be organic, or it will be fairly obvious to the public that The System is built on lies, and run by liars, completely unfair, and this stock was just being flat out controlled for months. Even if Wall St survives financially by implementing all these rules, if they lose the public trust then it is literally "game stopped." They need plausible cover to launch now, the rest is in place.*
|
||||
|
||||
1 - Rules of Engagement ✅
|
||||
|
||||
2 - Funding ✅
|
||||
|
||||
3 - Cover Story for Timing ❌
|
||||
|
||||
4 - Avoiding Perception of Responsibility ✅
|
||||
|
||||
--- *End TL;DR* ---
|
||||
|
||||
Busy few weeks, eh Apes? Figured I'd give this a brush up and post it again since it was a month ago I posted the original. So here's the refreshed, reviewed, reassessed, reformatted, and return of the Go / No-Go Checklist. Freshness stamp at the top, changes by date at the bottom. Please comment with any additions and corrections as always.
|
||||
|
||||
Official notice that this is not financial advice, etc etc. I have no idea if any of this is indeed why these things are happening, or if they are even what I think they are. I bought a handful of shares before DFV's Congressional hearing because something seemed fucky, and that was my first stock purchase EVER. If you make financial decisions off of this speculation, you probably do eat crayons like me. I am literally just some Ape on the internet mashing buttons and you're gonna have to explain to your wife's boyfriend why you took this as advice and then spent your whole allowance already this week.
|
||||
|
||||
So this [post](https://reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/mu9xed/why_were_still_trading_sideways_and_why_we_havent/) from [u/c-digs](https://www.reddit.com/u/c-digs/) is about as close as anyone has come to my personal theory that there is a literal checklist somewhere that is getting marked off before this is allowed to unravel. The DTCC and Wall St (and probably the SEC) definitely do not want this spring to unwind before they are ready, and certainly not in a way in which they don't feel they are in control. These players are Big Corporate dicks with Big Corporate mindsets, and its my bet that they don't do anything without a plan that at least addresses all eventualities.
|
||||
|
||||
However, as it is now probably alarmingly clear to them this isn't just gonna go away on its own (cue Apes waving from the windows of the rocket sitting on the launchpad), the DTCC and pals are now scrambling to get the last things in place before somebody trips over the cord to the shredder at 3am and lands on the launch button.
|
||||
|
||||
I think the list goes something like this, but am intending this to be a crowdsourced document because there is no way I can keep this all straight on my own, and the GME Investor community has done so so much great DD already. There is definitely more to add in terms of DTCC / OCC / NSCC / SEC rules, and please comment with additional items & sources and I'll try to keep up with editing them into the list. Compiling it here can possibly help determine just how close GME probably is to liftoff. It feels like we aren't that far from it now.
|
||||
|
||||
1 - Rules of Engagement
|
||||
|
||||
Opinon - Status: Go for Launch ✅\
|
||||
*The System would benefit most if new rules about payments in a member default situation are in effect prior to launch, and as far as we know at this point, all rules to cover that scenario that were filed are now in place. They can use remaining days to shore up a few more monetary rules, but there aren't any disaster-level rules still pending out there. My opinion is at 100% Go for rules being in place.*
|
||||
|
||||
Let's cover some basics before getting into each specific rule.
|
||||
|
||||
Whose rules cover what:
|
||||
|
||||
DTCC stands for Depoisitory Trust and Clearing Corporation which is made up of 3 self-regulating bodies:
|
||||
|
||||
- [DTC](https://www.dtcc.com/about/businesses-and-subsidiaries/dtc) - The Depository Trust Company
|
||||
|
||||
- [NSCC](https://www.dtcc.com/about/businesses-and-subsidiaries/nscc) - National Securities Clearing Corporation
|
||||
|
||||
- [FICC](https://www.dtcc.com/about/businesses-and-subsidiaries/ficc) - Fixed Income Clearing Corporation
|
||||
|
||||
and handles:
|
||||
|
||||
- Physical Stock Certificates and ownership records, big institutional trades (DTC)
|
||||
|
||||
- Securities trades, clearing, and settlement for nearly all transactions involving US based marketplaces (NSCC)
|
||||
|
||||
- Government Securities and Mortgage-Backed Securities (FICC)
|
||||
|
||||
[OCC](https://www.theocc.com/) - Options Clearing Coroporation handles:\
|
||||
Options (shocker, I know)
|
||||
|
||||
[ICC](https://www.theice.com/clear-credit) - Intercontinental Exchance (ICE) Clear Credit handles:\
|
||||
Credit Default Swaps, or CDS for short.
|
||||
|
||||
Naming Scheme (yes the whole thing is important)\
|
||||
example: SR-DTC-2021-005
|
||||
|
||||
- SR - Type of document filed, SR = Self Regulation
|
||||
|
||||
- DTC - Name of self regulated entity filing it
|
||||
|
||||
- 2021 - Year regulation was filed
|
||||
|
||||
- 005 - Sequence filed in (5th, so far)
|
||||
|
||||
✅ = in effect now\
|
||||
❌ = pending review / revision
|
||||
|
||||
Rules To Protect The System
|
||||
|
||||
Stocks/Securities
|
||||
|
||||
- SR-DTC-2021-003: Obligation to Reconcile Activity on a Regular Basis ✅\
|
||||
*The "You're gonna report your risk daily now, you little shits" Rule.*\
|
||||
Filed 2021-03-09\
|
||||
Effective 2021-03-16\
|
||||
[src](https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/comments/m793h7/new_dtcc_rule_just_passed_in_effect_immediatly/)
|
||||
|
||||
- SR-DTC-2021-004: Amend the Recovery & Wind-down Plan ✅\
|
||||
*The "We'll liquidate your asse(t)s if you default, then make your pals chip in, before we pay a dime ourselves" Rule.*\
|
||||
Also stipulates what the DTCC is willing to cover when reconciling, as in only shares on the books, and why you (yes you Ape) should have a cash account and not a margin account.\
|
||||
Filed 2021-03-29\
|
||||
Effective Immediately\
|
||||
[src](https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/comments/mgs05i/analysis_of_srdtc2021004_dtcc_changing_the_game/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf)
|
||||
|
||||
- SR-DTC-2021-005: Modify the DTC Settlement Service Guide and the Form of DTC Pledgee's Agreement ✅\
|
||||
*The "We're tagging the shares you lend out so you can't do it more than once" Rule.*\
|
||||
While this won't help prevent the current GME squeeze scenario, and would likely ignite the engines on its own, this will prevent a *GME-like* scenario from happening again in the future. [u/Leenixus](https://www.reddit.com/user/Leenixus/) has posted lots of info around DTC-2021-005 if you'd like to follow the saga.\
|
||||
Filed 2021-04-01 [archived original](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/o2nx3z/i_have_the_original_sec_srdtc2021005_before_it/)\
|
||||
Removed for further review src-1\
|
||||
Refiled 2021-06-15 src-2\
|
||||
Effective Immediately upon re-filing\
|
||||
[src-1](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/mpmcyz/good_news_update_on_dtc2021005_according_to_john/), [src-2](https://www.dtcc.com/-/media/Files/Downloads/legal/rule-filings/2021/DTC/SR-DTC-2021-005.pdf)
|
||||
|
||||
- SR-DTC-2021-006: Remove the Security Holder Tracking Service ✅\
|
||||
*The "We're dropping the old way of tracking shares, cause it didn't work well, and DTC-2021-005 will do it better" Rule.*\
|
||||
It was speculated in another post that the old system of tracking needed to be removed so there was no conflict in implementing DTC-2021-005 (I can't find that post here on reddit anymore, src needed!). It's likely that this could pave the way for 005 to be implemented. As if 2021-05-20 I am more inclined to think that it was removed to keep anyone from implementing share tracking prior to 005 being implemented. Filed 2021-04-22\
|
||||
Effective Immediately\
|
||||
[src](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/mwhyhw/sec_files_srdtc2021006_removing_the_old_and/) <- also my post
|
||||
|
||||
- SR-DTC-2021-007: Update the DTC Corporate Actions Distributions Service Guide ✅\
|
||||
*The "Stop bickering back and forth over the manual adjustments to your peer to peer trade records via the dumb APO method, and just use the GD computer validated Claim Connect system, please" Rule.*\
|
||||
Way to make a super vague title DTC... This is mostly about borrowed shares and updating who pays how much when circumstances - like rates - change. The old system (APO) needed both parties to just agree on the adjustments and one side could only submit an adjustment at a time, so it was rarely agreed upon in one pass and the bad guys could likely stall with many back and forths. To me this reads as a please use this better thing now, because APO will go away on July 9th 2021 so you'll have to use Claim Connect by then anyways. Since the lender is likely incentivized to use the new system, it may get adopted in higher numbers sooner.\
|
||||
Filed 2021-04-30\
|
||||
Effective Immediately\
|
||||
Mandatory 2021-07-09\
|
||||
[src](https://www.sec.gov/rules/sro/dtc.htm#SR-DTC-2021-007), [Explainer post](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/n28jes/new_dtc_regulation_posted_srdtc2021007/)
|
||||
|
||||
- SR-DTC-2021-009: Provide Enhanced Clarity for Deadlines and Processing Times ✅\
|
||||
*The "Don't assume we'll be keeping up with our own deadlines just because we have been in the past. We'll do what we want when we want. Also dont cry to us if our choices about deadlines, or someone else's rules about deadlines, kick you in the wallet. We're not chipping in for that." Rule.*\
|
||||
This is basically a re-statement of an ongoing policy by the DTC that their precedent around deadlines/timetables that they themselves have control over should not be misunderstood as a guarantee of them adhering to those same deadlines/timetables in the future. This does not effect deadlines imposed by external regulations though. Further, the DTC stipulates that they are not liable for damages (monetary losses) that are incurred by members from the DTC's choices to act or not act in the same timeframes as they had before, or damages from the actions of anybody else's rules, (SEC, OCC, NSCC, etc).\
|
||||
Filed 2021-06-08\
|
||||
Effective Immediately\
|
||||
[src](https://www.sec.gov/rules/sro/dtc/2021/34-92198.pdf), [Explainer post](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/o1ds30/new_dtc_filing_srdtc2021009_notice_of_filing_and/), [more info](https://reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/o63ev5/dtc2021009_implemented_tomorrow_saying_the_dtc/)
|
||||
|
||||
- SR-NSCC-2021-002: Amend the Supplemental Liquidity Deposit Requirements ✅\
|
||||
*The "We'll margin call your ass if your new daily reports say you're overextended and make us feel scared" Rule.*\
|
||||
Works in conjunction with DTC-2021-003. This rule now appears to be clear to be acted on by the SEC. NSCC filed a Partial Ammendment to this on June 17th for clarification.\
|
||||
Possible insight on why this may have been strategically delayed, via [/u/yosaso](https://www.reddit.com/u/yosaso/) src-4\
|
||||
NSCC-2021-801 Gave Advance Notice of this, and as of 2021-05-04 is cleared to be included with NSC-2021-002. src-2\
|
||||
Filed 2021-03-05\
|
||||
Comment Period Extended to 05-31 / Expected action on or before 2021-06-21 src-3\
|
||||
Approved 2021-06-21 with partial ammendment src-4\
|
||||
Effective 2021-06-23 src-5 [src](https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/comments/mc0zfn/too_ape_didnt_read_summary_of_srnscc2021801/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf), [src-2](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/n51u5d/sec_has_no_objections_to_nscc801/), [src-3](https://www.sec.gov/rules/sro/nscc/2021/34-91788.pdf), [src-4](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/n67h63/the_reason_why_may_4th_was_important/), [src-4](https://www.sec.gov/rules/sro/nscc/2021/34-92213.pdf), [src-5](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/o4z0jc/implementation_of_the_proposed_changes_to_the/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3)
|
||||
|
||||
- SR-NSCC-2021-004: Amend the Recovery & Wind-down Plan ✅\
|
||||
*The "Just so we're clear about stocks specifically, we're really serious about us not paying for your fuckups unless we have to rule" Rule.*\
|
||||
Works in conjunction with DTC-2021-004, but this is specific to securities and was filed first. src-1 This ALSO has language in it about clarifying the mass transfer of customer accounts from a failing member to a stable member. src-2\
|
||||
Filed 2021-03-05\
|
||||
Effective 2021-03-18\
|
||||
[src-1](https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/comments/mc0zfn/too_ape_didnt_read_summary_of_srnscc2021801/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf), [src-2](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/mvybgf/sec_is_expecting_the_need_for_a_mass_emergency/)
|
||||
|
||||
- NSCC-2021-005: Increase the NSCC's Minimum Required Fund Deposit *pending* ❌\
|
||||
*The "We're gonna up your minimum deposit with us from an hysterically low $10K each, to an almost certainly still not enough $250k each" Rule.*\
|
||||
DTCC has submitted this to SEC, but SEC has not approved / published yet, so details may change. src-1\
|
||||
Filed 2021-04-26\
|
||||
Published: 2021-05-10\
|
||||
Approved: Pending, expected action on or before 2021-06-24 (45 days after publication)\
|
||||
Effective: Approval + 10 days max\
|
||||
[src-1](https://www.dtcc.com/legal), [Explainer post](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/mz9gl6/nscc2021005_has_been_signed_today_implementation/)
|
||||
|
||||
Options
|
||||
|
||||
- SR-OCC-2021-003: Increase Persistent Minimum Skin-In-The-Game / Waterfall ✅\
|
||||
*The "You Market Makers are gonna give us more money now in case you fuck up with options later and owe someone more than you have" Rule.*\
|
||||
This is the rule associated with the SR-OCC-2021-801 advanced notice, and SIG filed an opposition during the review period delaying the implementation. src-1 You can read that whiney rant here via this [comment](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nhh0f1/update_go_nogo_for_launch_the_checklist_keeping/gznui8r?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3)\
|
||||
OCC-2021-003 is now approved and both should be in effect no later than Tuesday 2021-06-01 10am Eastern (if SEC approval notice counts as the official written notice to OCC members). src-2\
|
||||
Filed 2021-02-10\
|
||||
Approved 2021-05-27\
|
||||
Effective on or before 2021-06-01 10am EST\
|
||||
[src-1](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/mm8pnz/update_from_sec_on_srocc2021801_aka_srocc2021203/), [src-2](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nmjbov/srocc2021003_approved_that_one_was_needed_for/gzqwqzc?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3)
|
||||
|
||||
Credit Default Swaps
|
||||
|
||||
- SR-ICC-2021-005: Amend the ICC Recovery & Wind-down Plan ✅\
|
||||
*The "Guys, DTC had a pretty good idea, lets also liquidate members first before touching our own cash." Rule.*\
|
||||
Fairly straightforward with this nugget as described by [u/Criand](https://www.reddit.com/u/Criand/):\
|
||||
"Something really cool is they'll not only wipe out members who default on a certain security, they'll wipe out similar positions in that same security of all their other members IF it's high risk/stress to the market."\
|
||||
Filed 2021-03-23\
|
||||
Approved 2021-05-10\
|
||||
Effective Immediately\
|
||||
[src](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nfl69o/new_icc_rules_summary_they_are_preparing_for/)
|
||||
|
||||
- SR-ICC-2021-007: Update the ICC's Treasury Operations Policies and Procedures ✅\
|
||||
*The "Your capital balance sheet is looking a little shaggy there, we think you need a Collateral Haircut" Rule.*\
|
||||
Tightens up what can and cant be considered as collateral, trimming off the stuff that is not deemed worthy, and reducing overall capital, which means you can handle less total risk and/or volatile CDS contracts.\
|
||||
Filed 2021-03-29\
|
||||
Approved 2021-05-13\
|
||||
Effective Immediately\
|
||||
[src](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nfl69o/new_icc_rules_summary_they_are_preparing_for/)
|
||||
|
||||
- SR-ICC-2021-008: Update the ICC Risk Management Model Description ✅\
|
||||
*The "We're gonna start using our best guesses on if the collateral for the loans these psuedo-insurance contracts are based on might go crazy in the near future, 'cause shit is getting weird out there" Rule.*\
|
||||
This is about [Credit Default Swaps](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/creditdefaultswap.asp), which are a bit complex. Essentially this rule appears it primarily will help to reduce the chances of say, BofA failing because they agreed to get paid to take on some of the risk of a loan made by say JP Morgan, and then BofA got fucked over just because JP Morgain made the loan using a volatile stock as collateral and then that stock went bananas... a stock which everyone probably knew was volatile but somehow wasn't a big factor in making the agreement before this rule. The rule also limits the ICC maximum total losses/payout, and ups initial margin requirements.\
|
||||
Filed 2021-03-31\
|
||||
Approved 2021-05-18\
|
||||
Effective Immediately\
|
||||
[src](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nfl69o/new_icc_rules_summary_they_are_preparing_for/)
|
||||
|
||||
- SR-ICC-2021-009: Update the ICC Risk Parameter Setting and Review Policy ✅\
|
||||
*The "We're basing risk on day to day averages now instead of month to month averages" Rule.*\
|
||||
When something strays too far outside of the acceptable baseline, it gets flagged. Now that baseline is automatically calculated day to day, instead of month to month, and manualy reviewed the old way at least monthly. It will result in faster response time to fast moving changes and real risks (safer), but also less shock from too few updates (smoother). All that so they can keep margin levels appropriate. Also cleans up some language to be more generic and descriptive like "Extreme Price Change Scenarios."\
|
||||
Filed 2021-04-02\
|
||||
Approved 2021-05-20\
|
||||
Effective Immediately\
|
||||
[src](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nhdw0f/rick_management_updates_just_went_from_monthly_to/)
|
||||
|
||||
- SR-ICC-2021-014: Update the ICC's Fee Schedules ✅\
|
||||
*The "Huuuuuuuge discounts on swaps! Get 'em while they last!" Rule.*\
|
||||
This cuts fees on CDS contracts about 25%, which sounds like they want to incentivize risk sharing even more. Program is for the 2nd half of 2021, and discounts start June 1st.\
|
||||
Filed 2021-05-07\
|
||||
Approved 2021-05-18\
|
||||
Effective Immediately\
|
||||
[src](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nfl69o/new_icc_rules_summary_they_are_preparing_for/)
|
||||
|
||||
Rules to protect the value of the market in general as best as possible
|
||||
|
||||
- SR-OCC-2021-004: Revisions to OCC's Auction Participation Requirements ✅\
|
||||
*The "Everyone can come to the feeding frenzy party when we liquidate one of you idiots" Rule.*\
|
||||
Allows more firms that were traditionally excluded from an auction of this type to now join in, probably making the market wide bleeding end sooner, and retain more value overall.\
|
||||
Filed 2021-03-19\
|
||||
Effective 2021-05-19\
|
||||
[src](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/mnpzu5/srocc2021004_why_this_proposed_rule_change_is/)
|
||||
|
||||
Non-regulation / Other Announcments
|
||||
|
||||
- Exchange Act Rule 15c3-3 Compliance Letter: Staff Statement on Fully Paid Lending ✅\
|
||||
*The "We're making you keep full collateral on hand for your shit, you've got six months to get it together" letter.*\
|
||||
Letter sent 2020-10-22\
|
||||
Effective 2021-04-22\
|
||||
[src](https://www.sec.gov/news/public-statement/staff-fully-paid-lending?utm_medium=email&utm_source=govdelivery)
|
||||
|
||||
- GOV-1085-21: DTCC / FICC White Paper Announcing WABR added as a Sponsored Member ✅\
|
||||
WABR Cayman Limited is a firm specializing in helping Institutional Sales Traders in times of "thin markets". [u/stellarEVH](https://www.reddit.com/u/stellarEVH/) explains:\
|
||||
*"When a company needs to quickly pay off their debts as in the case of a margin call, it can be challenging for them to gather all the money from their various investments. There are firms in place that are specialized in liquidating their portfolio in a manner to minimize market impact while they pay off their debt."*\
|
||||
Announced 2021-04-23\
|
||||
Effective 2021-04-29\
|
||||
[src](https://www.dtcc.com/-/media/Files/pdf/2021/4/23/GOV1085-21PDF.PDF), via [this post & comments](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/my1hio/friday_the_dtcc_approved_wabra_morgan_stanley/), linked from [It's Just a Bug, Bro Part 6 - Bug Spray Edition](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/myl37p/its_just_a_bug_bro_part_6_bug_spray_edition/)\
|
||||
[Additional info on who WABR is](https://reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/mz4oza/the_rabbit_hole_of_wabr_cayman_company_limited/) 👀 *Spidey senses are tingling*\
|
||||
*I love this community*
|
||||
|
||||
- MBS978-21: FICC Notice on MBSD Intraday Mark-to-Market Charge - Timing of Intraday Collection ✅\
|
||||
*We've been lenient for the past year cause shit was wack, but we're going back on that regular hourly assesment for margins.* "Starting on May 3, 2021, the fixed time of 1:00PM will be eliminated and the MBSD Intraday Mark-to-Market Charge will return to an hourly assessment." This combined with other things will tighten the screws.\
|
||||
[/u/stellarEVH](https://www.reddit.com/u/stellarEVH/) bringing that good good again: *"For example, it'll be much harder to short GameStop and/or trade in dark pools when you're expected to cover your margin every hour. For the last year, they've only needed to prove they were covered at 1pm."*\
|
||||
Notice Date 2021-04-21\
|
||||
Effective 2021-05-03\
|
||||
[src post](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/n3m0qu/the_mandatory_dtcc_common_stock_reallocation_for/), [explainer comment](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/n3m0qu/the_mandatory_dtcc_common_stock_reallocation_for/gwr8n2a?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3)
|
||||
|
||||
- OCC Notice 48718: TEMPORARY INCREASE TO CLEARING FUND SIZE ✅\
|
||||
*Yeah if you could give us some more of your money for a bit, that would be great.*\
|
||||
Yeah they used all caps, and gave 2 days notice before they would just go into members bank accounts to get that money. Must've needed it bad for the 19th, because it normally is just increased monthly on the 1st. Total increase was $588,378,155.\
|
||||
Notice Date 2021-05-17\
|
||||
Deposit by Date 2021-05-19 [by 9am](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nfz9xa/huge_crypto_dump_currently_things_are_hotting_up/).\
|
||||
[src](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nftyg4/occ_has_issued_a_statement_to_all_clearing/)
|
||||
|
||||
*(please help me fill in other important rules via comments)*
|
||||
|
||||
2 - Funding
|
||||
|
||||
Opinion - Status: Go for Launch ✅
|
||||
|
||||
To pay out for shares of GME
|
||||
|
||||
- [SHF Pulling money from crypt0](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bitcoin-doge-ethereum-ripple-price-monday-19-april-crypto-latest-081427050.html)
|
||||
|
||||
- SHF Pump and Dump on other stocks
|
||||
|
||||
- SHF Liquidate other Assets Under Management (market-wide dive on 2021-04-22?) [Citadel Sell-off?](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/n0fwx2/kenny_might_be_in_a_bit_of_a_pickle_right_now/)
|
||||
|
||||
- Wind Down and Recovery Strategies (SR-DTC-2021-004, SR-ICC-2021-005)
|
||||
|
||||
- *(other suggestions w/ sources wanted)*
|
||||
|
||||
Secure cash to buy up liquidated assets to prevent total market collapse
|
||||
|
||||
- [Big Banks do a Bond Sales](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/mu8a5m/6_out_of_the_7_top_listed_us_banks_have_made/), [Citigroup: "Me Too!"](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/mzvcli/citigroup_borrowing_55_billion_in_latest_bank/)
|
||||
|
||||
- Need plausible reasons for making those sales such as earnings report, or LIBOR to SOFR switch, or *insert wildcard like $50 Bil Football League*, etc ...
|
||||
|
||||
- Banks Re-Structuring / Netting [src](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/mur8bz/srdtc2021004_the_dtcc_and_jp_morgan_theyre/)
|
||||
|
||||
- [Wells Fargo to liquidate two of its trusts](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nh5ed7/wells_fargo_to_liquidate_two_of_its_trusts/)
|
||||
|
||||
- Rule SR-OCC-2021-004 allowing more players at the auction of the defaulting member's assets.
|
||||
|
||||
3 - Cover for Timing of Launch
|
||||
|
||||
Opinion - Status: No-Go for Launch ❌\
|
||||
*This will likely be the very last one, and we'll only know what they will use as an excuse once it's started. I think all the other pieces would need to be in place* (Narrator: They are.) *for them to feel most confident to light the fuse. This will be more oportunistic in nature, I think.*
|
||||
|
||||
I'm splitting this into 2 objectives: why GME is going up, and why the market in general is tanking.
|
||||
|
||||
GME Go BRRRRRRRRRRRR! Cover
|
||||
|
||||
Ideally a plausible Corporate or Market Event that the stock price "should" respond to in order to initiate upward price movement without the timing looking SUS AF and destabilizing the broader market due to fear of systemic problems and/or loss of public trust. These events are mostly out of the control of The System, and one will likely be the ignition.
|
||||
|
||||
- Corporate: ~~AGM Voting Proxy Release~~
|
||||
|
||||
- Corporate: ~~Quarterly Earnings (Q1 2021)~~
|
||||
|
||||
- Corporate: ~~CEO Announced~~
|
||||
|
||||
- Corporate: ~~AGM Vote Count + Board Elections~~
|
||||
|
||||
- Corporate: ~~RC Appointed as Chairman Official News~~
|
||||
|
||||
- Corporate: ~~New Cash Reserves from ATM Stock Offer~~
|
||||
|
||||
- Corporate: Dividend Issue / Stock Split
|
||||
|
||||
- Corporate: Major Partner Announcement
|
||||
|
||||
- Corporate: Possible NFT Announcement 2021-07-14?
|
||||
|
||||
- Market: Broader Retail Gains
|
||||
|
||||
- Market: $GME moves from Russell 2000 to Russell 1000 after close on 2021-06-25
|
||||
|
||||
- TBD / Unkown
|
||||
|
||||
Markets Go clank! Cover
|
||||
|
||||
Major policy announcements, world politics, regularly scheduled economic reports released... Pick your favorite here, cause they will and already have. This cover will justify why the markets are hemorhaging to hide the fact that positions are being liquidated to start paying for buying-back all those GME shares.
|
||||
|
||||
- Market: Global Supply Chain Issue
|
||||
|
||||
- Market: Liquidity Stress Tests
|
||||
|
||||
- [April 26th, 2021](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/mww2ah/dtcc_planning_liquidity_risk_testing_on_26th/)
|
||||
|
||||
- [May 13th, 2021](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/n763vq/dtcc_members_are_having_a_liquidity_check_may_13th/)
|
||||
|
||||
- Note: As far as I can tell, these happened yearly, typically in April/May, but only once... 2 back to back?
|
||||
|
||||
- Government: ~[POTUS joint address to Congress](https://apnews.com/article/joe-biden-nancy-pelosi-coronavirus-pandemic-267e753a5d1ab7a72d3274728b25f63c)\
|
||||
Green New Deal? Capital Gains Announcement: [similar to BS on 2021-04-22?](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-04-22/biden-to-propose-capital-gains-tax-as-high-as-43-4-for-wealthy)
|
||||
|
||||
- Government: [2021-05-06 Congressional Hearing with SEC / Gensler, DTCC / Bodson, FINRA / Cook.](https://financialservices.house.gov/news/documentsingle.aspx?DocumentID=407762)
|
||||
|
||||
- Government: [2021-05-26+27 Congressional Hearing with Big Banks](https://financialservices.house.gov/news/documentsingle.aspx?DocumentID=407740)
|
||||
|
||||
- Government: Monthly [Consumer Price Index numbers released](https://www.bls.gov/schedule/news_release/cpi.htm), next is June 13th
|
||||
|
||||
- Government: [US Treasury Stability Council Meeting June 11th](https://www.reuters.com/article/usa-treasury-stability-idUSL2N2N638S)\
|
||||
Possible platform for policy announcement? Typically hold 6 +/- a year, but this would be first of 2021 and was postponed from May 21st.
|
||||
|
||||
- Government: [US 2022 Fiscal Year Budget Proposal](https://www.reuters.com/world/us/biden-propose-6-trillion-us-budget-2022-fiscal-year-nyt-2021-05-27/)
|
||||
|
||||
- *(other suggestions wanted)*
|
||||
|
||||
4 - Fallguy, and the Lack of Prevention
|
||||
|
||||
Opinion - Status: Go for Launch ✅\
|
||||
*While they will likely have a fallguy decided upon prior to launch, I don't see it as a necessity that would delay it, certainly not like the Rules of Engagement or Funding would. I also think that nothing would keep them from changing the story if something else influences the narrative in an acceptable way shortly after liftoff.*
|
||||
|
||||
Blame!
|
||||
|
||||
After the market pain is significant enough that the public wants answers, why not lay all the blame on bad actors, and defer attention from the system to try to avoid additional exterior regulation.
|
||||
|
||||
- SHFs (now liquidated) as overly greedy and got what they deserved
|
||||
|
||||
- Retail (as Anarchists, or greedy and oportunistic)
|
||||
|
||||
- [Forbes article on January Gamma Squeeze](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/mvf7r3/forbes_reminder_as_we_hodl_towards_the_moass_gme/gvc5c8f/?context=3)
|
||||
|
||||
- Foreign Actors trying to destabilize the US Markets
|
||||
|
||||
- *(other suggestions w/ sources wanted)*
|
||||
|
||||
Control Public Image of the System via PR
|
||||
|
||||
- DTCC: ["We're doing a great job! Take our word for it!"](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/mvozps/dtcc_trying_to_get_ahead_of_the_story_the_most/?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share)
|
||||
|
||||
- DTCC: "We're announcing our plan to keep working on a plan to kind of band-aid a problem that's pretty bad and we've known about for awhile, and like we have definitely been talking about it and stuff, but now we're like really gonna talk about it using words like "in-depth analysis" cause up to now we were mostly just talking about it like how you tell that one friend *"yeah, we should totally hang out soon"* and then you never do, but not now cause we're serious now, and it's definitely not because we've gotta talk to the US Congress this week or anything. Like, honestly." AKA the announcement of [the DTCC's T+1 Settlement Plan.](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/n5b91j/dtcc_rolls_out_plan_and_faq_for_a_new_t1/)
|
||||
|
||||
* * * * *
|
||||
|
||||
...Meanwhile, at the SEC
|
||||
|
||||
"Let's at least *look* like we aren't asleep at the wheel here, lads"
|
||||
|
||||
- [Whistleblower Awards](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/mrfxvg/secgov_sec_awards_over_50_million_to_joint/)
|
||||
|
||||
- [47.4% of the Amount of all SEC Whistleblower Awards Ever Given Have Been Awarded in the Last 12 Months (Out of 105 Months of Program Activity)](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nf3n64/474_of_the_amount_of_all_sec_whistleblower_awards/)
|
||||
|
||||
- [Closed door meetings](https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/comments/mihiv9/another_sec_closed_door_meeting_scheduled_for_48/)
|
||||
|
||||
- [2021-05-27 Sunshine Act Meeting - Scheduled](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nhgh3i/sunshine_meeting_rescheduled_may_27/)
|
||||
|
||||
- These have been cancelled 4 out of 7 times... so far!
|
||||
|
||||
- Speech by SEC Commissioner Peirce inlcuding the line that the SEC is *"working on a report about the events related to meme stock trading earlier this year, and some regulatory initiatives may come out of that work."* and a few other statements about how the SEC shouldn't be concerned with firms loosing money... aka Tough Titties Archegos, et al.\
|
||||
[src post](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/n2ax63/something_apes_missed_read_this/)
|
||||
|
||||
- [SEC sues HF, filed 5/19/21- states NAKED SHORT SELLING is ILLEGAL and ask FOR a JULY TRIAL!!!](https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/comments/nhmaxw/sec_sues_hf_filed_51921_states_naked_short/)
|
||||
|
||||
Any and all additions you think may belong on this list, feel free to put in the comments, and I'll try to update and give credit where possible. If I got any of these wrong, or you've found better links that explain the rules, let me know in the comments and I'll make those edits.
|
||||
|
||||
Contributions noted where possible, and initial start from previous work on Recent Filings by [/u/Antioch_Orontes](https://www.reddit.com/u/Antioch_Orontes/) [here.](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/msh5mt/a_brief_overview_of_recent_filings_from_the_dtc/)
|
||||
|
||||
Looking for the TL;DR? It's at the top.
|
||||
|
||||
* * * * *
|
||||
|
||||
Buy. Hodl. Buckle Up.
|
||||
|
||||
... and make history.
|
||||
|
||||
🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀
|
||||
|
||||
Edit 2021-05-22:\
|
||||
Typos, add expected effective timeframe for DTC-2021-005. May 27th SEC Meeting Scheduled. SEC Lawsuit. Restructured the 3rd/Cover section to clarify for some comments and feedback about why I think cover is important. Also by now I've got plenty of reddit points/currency, so spend new money on GME!
|
||||
|
||||
Edit 2021-05-28:\
|
||||
SR-OCC-2021-003 approved. Add CPI release as market drop cover, US Treasury meeting, US Budget Proposal.
|
||||
|
||||
Edit 2021-06-21:\
|
||||
SR-DTC-005 approved and in effect, SR-NSCC-2021-002 / 801 approved. SR-DTC-2021-009 added. Updated expected timeline for SR-NSCC-2021-005
|
||||
|
||||
Edit 2021-06-23:\
|
||||
SR-DTC-2021-009 updated with additional info. Added move to Russell 1000 as possible cover story (thanks [u/godkyle11](https://reddit.com/user/godkyle11/) for the prompt). Updated section 3 to better illustrate corporate events now in the past.
|
114
DD/2021-05-21-Hank-Returns-from-the-Dead-and-Takes-a-Dump.md
Normal file
114
DD/2021-05-21-Hank-Returns-from-the-Dead-and-Takes-a-Dump.md
Normal file
@ -0,0 +1,114 @@
|
||||
Hank returns from the dead and takes a dump
|
||||
===========================================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/HomeDepotHank69](https://www.reddit.com/user/HomeDepotHank69/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nhs1wy/hank_returns_from_the_dead_and_takes_a_dump/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
[DD 👨🔬](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22DD%20%F0%9F%91%A8%E2%80%8D%F0%9F%94%AC%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||
********* I am not a financial advisor, this is not financial advice **********
|
||||
|
||||
Good morning apes, I'm back.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/zab5b8c2oe071.png?width=648&format=png&auto=webp&s=d180afc080ba02d1d170f5b2344372b9ccaadbdc)
|
||||
|
||||
BEFORE YOU SAY IT: Ik this technically makes me Kenny's son; however, as per the laws of nature, a human cannot birth a retarded ape.
|
||||
|
||||
Boy is it good to be back, apes. I've missed you all. I've been gone for a while but have not left the cause. I've been lurking in the shadows, jacking off to DD, and huffing WD40. When I was just a child (a boy in Bulgaria), my father said he was going to the store to get cigarettes... I think he's still there, must've been a long line for those Marlboros. Well apes, unlike my dad, I am returning to you.
|
||||
|
||||
Seriously though, thanks for all the messages and comments asking where I was. I fucking love this community. This has been an extremely busy week for me so I was not able to post any updates. My schedule is still pretty busy but it seems that the worst part is over, so I will hopefully be back more regularly to feed you that sweet confirmation bias. As many of you know, I have posted a few meme dumps. Well apes, today I will be taking another dump... A FUCKING DD DUMP (very sexual). So, this post will not be like the usual ones where it has one long theory, instead, it's gonna be a few theories and ideas.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/o15bfun4be071.png?width=922&format=png&auto=webp&s=ee145f5b13d10dd67ac639b287283af7fc49079c)
|
||||
|
||||
Covid-19, Jerome Powell, and January Squeezes
|
||||
|
||||
I think that everyone (us and Wallstreet included) has kind of brushed off just how crazy the end of January was. Five stocks squeezed to over double in value... all in the same week (BB, KOSS, EXPR, NOK, AMC)... oh yeah and this one stock had a mega-boner-super-asstastic-squeeze (GME). Short squeezes of those magnitudes are rare. But all of these stocks simultaneously squeezing is not weird... it's unprecedented. For a squeeze to happen, a stock must be heavily shorted and a rapid price movement must cause the shorts to be squeezed out of their positions, which adds more buying pressure. So you're telling me that all of these smaller, struggling companies had insanely high short interest and were squeezed at the same time and are not related? Yeah, I don't buy it. Below I will explain why.
|
||||
|
||||
Major short squeezes happen every few years. Little short squeezes may happen every so often, but the big ones happen very rarely. Why are they rare? Shorting is at the core of many HF strategies. It can be extremely profitable. When a fund decides to go short what do they do? They always announce it on CNBC, make a report, stir up news, and hope that others go in with them (they usually do). They only short companies that are overextended or are on the brink of bankruptcy, so it's usually a pretty sure thing. But sometimes, they're wrong. Sometimes they're wrong BIG.
|
||||
|
||||
Why do some of these monster squeezes happen? They usually happen because HFs overly short a stock and get hit by some bombshell news piece that squeezes them out of their position. Again, this does not happen often. Remember, HFs are run by very smart people with extensive resources and experience. When they make a bet, it's usually pretty well thought out.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/br3vblz3le071.png?width=828&format=png&auto=webp&s=69291c102a2e1a485be8f83c7297d484bd5da18f)
|
||||
|
||||
Enter Covid-19. Covid essentially opened the flood gates to shorting. Why? Because Covid promised to shut down the in-person economy for at least a year and promised to obliterate the stock market. Covid-19 created a unique financial situation. Obviously, it led to mass unemployment and a crushed stock market, but what was strange about Covid was that it crushed an extremely strong economy by prolonging and increasing unemployment and decreasing business activity without an actual economic disaster (i.e. most recessions happen because of a system or economic problem, this happened because of a virus, not a systemic economic problem). So, the general idea was that the economy, though strong, would be extremely slow for at least a year because of covid. What a perfect storm? The economy is in ruins, struggling brick and mortars will likely go bankrupt, you won't make any money going long on stocks because the market will be bad, we won't get a vaccine for at least a year, and the general economy will suck (these were their assumptions). So what did they do? They shorted.... a lot. Here is a chart of the volume and short volume of SPY:
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/kv85w7ns0h071.png?width=1214&format=png&auto=webp&s=d4338a41854ee42b8c9e6c98cd3fb32b0ee1eab7)
|
||||
|
||||
Obviously, this does not give a full picture of the market, but it gives the general picture that shorting increased dramatically during the covid crash. So yeah, they shorted. They shorted a lot, and it makes sense, it was rational. Remember when I said that certain struggling companies would be pushed to the brink of bankruptcy? Wow, another great shorting opportunity. So, they shorted BB, KOSS, EXPR, NOK, AMC, and GME extensively because of the premise that the economy would be shit for a while and that already struggling companies would go bankrupt (especially ones relying on in-person sales). How could you not profit on that? It's a slam dunk, right? RIGHT?
|
||||
|
||||
Well, they got two premises wrong. First, the vaccine came out way quicker than anyone expected. Second:
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/gs1iomezxd071.png?width=640&format=png&auto=webp&s=c29f5f22da63d376f0fe408282355e9ac6587187)
|
||||
|
||||
JPow turned on the money machines an unprecedented amount:
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/gqaopf35yd071.png?width=676&format=png&auto=webp&s=a5bd411020e4e236e73548fde85908a028ab6cb6)
|
||||
|
||||
Now one saw that coming. I mean people don't take the time to realize that the market is literally $100 higher now than it was precovid and we haven't even fully reopened. No one could've predicted that.
|
||||
|
||||
So they were wrong - the market recovered WAYYYY quicker. What were the consequences of that? Well, basically every single stock rose significantly and must faster than expected and the market made a full 180. Now obviously, they weren't short on everything in the market and still made tons of money on the 180 turn. However, I think that they over shorted the previously mentioned stocks because they thought they could hit the bankruptcy jackpot, which is why they all squoze together.
|
||||
|
||||
BUT, they wrong the worst with GME and that's why it squoze the most. Out of all the stocks, GME had the most positive news in 2020. On top of that, because of GME's debt and financials, they shorted it the most (we all know the famous 138%). That's why GME squoze the most, it's because the best things happened to the most shorted stock. That's why we're in this situation now.
|
||||
|
||||
Finally, I want to reemphasize how weird this all is. Please tell me how it is normal that 6 stocks, all formerly on the verge of bankruptcy traded in nearly identical patterns for the past year. Seriously look it up for yourself. They all squeeze at the end of January, shoot back up on February 24th, have a huge rise and fall on March 10th and are all trading significantly above their book value. HOW THE FUCK CAN YOU DENY THAT NOTHING IS GOING ON HERE? Do you really think that all of these stocks would trade in identical patterns like this? Yes, stocks trade in similar patterns all the time, but those are usually stocks that follow the SPX in an upward trend. I challenge you to find stocks that trade in such an obscure pattern so identically close to each other as these do. Seriously, does it make any sense that GME is trading at 5x what analysts say it should be? Same for AMC. It makes even less sense that all 6 of these stocks trade in an identical obscure pattern.
|
||||
|
||||
So why does that matter?
|
||||
|
||||
IMO, this observation highlights an absolutely terrifying market situation. We all know that naked/abusive shorting has been around for a while. However, it appears that because of low-interest rates and an ease of restrictions, it probably increased more during covid. There has been great reporting in this sub about the repo market, which demonstrates liquidity issues (for wrinkle brains, liquidity issues happen when you've borrowed too much and/or don't have many liquid assets (cash) and is how literally every financial crisis happens because overleveraging creates a house of cards that eventually crashes). Liquidity issues are insanely dangerous in today's market conditions. The FED has been aggressively pursuing quantitative easing (QE) policies where it buys bonds and other assets to help stabilize prices. This helps to push up the economy, along with low-interest rates. Well, when there's a liquidity crisis, the FED literally cannot purchase the bonds and could lose control of the economy. What could be even worse is if we see inflation happen. We are already seeing it happen but according to JPow iTs tRaNsiToRy... yeah I bet that ages well. If inflation happens, then the FED will probably have to raise rates to slow down the economy, which will also hurt the market.
|
||||
|
||||
This terrifies me because it means that institutions are overleveraged because of the easy money interest rates and we are nearing a liquidity crisis AND inflation could force the fed to hike rates. What happens when all of these things meet? The house of cards falls. So, let's say that there's an economic downturn (not a collapse, not a recession, not a depression, but a significant correction). That will lead to margin calls. If you get margin called and you have a significant short stake in, oh I don't know, a formerly struggling brick and mortar gaming retailer that just so happened to tongue punch the fart box of the entire market, that makes you........ FUCKED. Now let me make this clear, we should not be praying on the economy to collapse, that's idiotic. A collapsing economy means people lose their jobs, pensions, and people die. However, we need to be cognizant that we may have found a way to profit off of an impending correction.
|
||||
|
||||
GME and SPY
|
||||
|
||||
My DDs have also been laced with comparisons of SPY, VIX, and GME. As we know, GME has a negative beta so it is usually inversely proportional to SPY, which is extremely abnormal. GME seems to be directly proportional to the VIX. The VIX spikes during market volatility, which usually comes with margin calls. You put the rest together.
|
||||
|
||||
However, I found something very, very interesting. According to my chart, it seems that GME is consolidating to earnings and the annual meeting. Obviously, this could be broken at any time or I could be completely wrong. It could also do what I said it's doing in my last DD and just keep forming new consolidations. Here's what I drew for GME:
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/r0wws7b78e071.png?width=1882&format=png&auto=webp&s=880c42035e34628a43a14f1d18c000f50b2a1585)
|
||||
|
||||
It seems that they line up right around the blue question mark, which is earnings. The annual meeting is the very next day 6/9 (lmao nice). For those of you who just popped a quarter chub because you saw the yellow lines, yes those are my FTD cycle lines. The next one is sometime next week. Refer to [u/criand](https://www.reddit.com/u/criand/)'s DD because I am crowning him FTDaddy.
|
||||
|
||||
It would make sense for GME to consolidate up to this point. Last earnings we saw a big move (not in our fucking favor though). This earnings, however, comes before the meeting, which is significant. As many of you have pointed out, this meeting could expose the massive number of synthetic shares through voting numbers. I have also noticed that there has been absolutely no news relating to GME for the past few weeks, which is very strange considering the barrage we've been getting the last few months. Could this mean they are saving something(s) up for the annual meeting? This is all speculation but it would make sense to me.
|
||||
|
||||
So, remember that date, 6/9 (lmao)? Well, look at SPY:
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/33ede0v39e071.png?width=1818&format=png&auto=webp&s=6d2564167f462ae8cdbb28ed41328d569b0936a9)
|
||||
|
||||
I call the red line the death line because it's where I call BS on this absolutely crazy pricing based on historical pricing TA (this is a week chart btw). See that apex, guess what day it converges? 6/9. Coincidence? Yeah probably. Something to give you hope and help you sleep at night? Of course. Just to give you a little more confirmation bias, check out RIS (again one week chart), last time we were this oversold, the market literally died. Considering what I said above about liquidity, we could be seeing some major, major shit happen soon. AGAIN, this is just absolute speculation and conjecture and is probably not related...
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/xxrtd1os9e071.jpg?width=1804&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=c50f0c0d9652d570b14bb3bbc6414fde12a073d1)
|
||||
|
||||
The point of this is that SPY cannot keep these prices up forever especially considering the likelihood of inflation, the possible liquidity crisis, and the overleveraging we are seeing. GME, moreover, should not be behaving like it is without something fucky going on underneath. Something's gonna give soon, apes.
|
||||
|
||||
The Fucking midday volume spikes
|
||||
|
||||
The stuff above was mostly my theories and opinions, this is probably the best actual new DD that I have in this post. I have said in many of my DDs that there are these random midday positive volume spikes. I always noticed them, as I'm sure many of you have, but never took the time to document them or to do anything with them, until now. Below is a table of these spikes from the past few weeks:
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/pxhieq516e071.png?width=1284&format=png&auto=webp&s=e40f6d81c2f5761ca021f1f6721e595ee81030ad)
|
||||
|
||||
EDIT: This is what the volume spikes look like (don't mind the blue and yellow lines, just look at that giant green dildo in the middle of the day:
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/cfqnjxjr5h071.png?width=850&format=png&auto=webp&s=60194d4a42674e06cdeceaff0f3f110d69942e12)
|
||||
|
||||
The commonalities in all of these are: they are positive volume (i.e. price goes higher), they are the highest candle in their given day BY A MILE, they happen between 11 am-2 pm, they happen on absolutely no news. This is only from a few trading days, so it is by no means exhaustive. However, I went through and looked and this has been happening for a very long time now and it is consistent and common. Seriously check it out for yourself. Go on a 1-minute time frame on any given week and you'll find at least one of these random spikes. I also looked at AMC... same exact thing happens with that stock (goes back to my theory about them being related). So what does this mean? Quite honestly I have no clue. It's strange that it happens in the same time period, is the highest volume in the day, and is positive. Could it be a short covering? That's what I'm guessing. However, I need more data to make that conclusion. My next DD will probably be about uncovering more to this. Note that I did not cherry-pick the above data, this is just the most recent data from the past few weeks, this trend is extremely persistent and I intend to look into it more and invite other apes to do the same. IMO, this probably has something to do with a smaller time frame FTD cycle because of how common and persistent it is. So, expect my next DD to be something about this. Sorry I couldn't do a full DD on this right now, again don't have the time currently, so this is just a little cock tease, but expect something about this in the future.
|
||||
|
||||
With that in mind, just wanna give a shoutout to [u/criand](https://www.reddit.com/u/criand/) for being an absolute god. This guy pumps out DD I like I pump out turds after Chipotle. His recent DD on the FTD cycle is the best FTD cycle DD on this sub by far and he basically cracked the FTD cycle code.
|
||||
|
||||
Closing Thots
|
||||
|
||||
Apes, I'll say it again, none of what is happening with GME is normal. I could make a laundry list of the abnormalities - the price being 5x analyst predictions but not budging, OTC trading, random volume spikes, FTD cycle, difficulty to borrow, relatedness to other shorted stocks, consolidation patterns, gigantic drops, etc. etc. etc. The point is, something's going on and something's gotta give. What do all of these abnormalities make me?
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/6adccfbabe071.png?width=1080&format=png&auto=webp&s=f17c0be2c20907e258334ba516103fadfb4fc868)
|
||||
|
||||
HARDER THAN EVER
|
||||
|
||||
Thanks again for understanding why I was gone for a little bit, I really appreciate it. Idk when I'll be coming back because the next few weeks are not super predictable for me and could be busy... but I will be here... watching.... reading.... jacking off. As always, stay strong apes.
|
||||
|
||||
TL;DR
|
||||
|
||||
Hank is back. Thanks for your patience. Look closer at the January squeeze. Group of stocks moving in unison. Not a coincidence. Covid created perfect storm for all of this. Economy could correct/crash. Inflation/leveraging/liquidity bad. SPY too big. GME might benefit from this. Midday volume spikes exist. I am curious. I will investigate more. I have a half chub.
|
||||
|
||||
********* I am not a financial advisor, this is not financial advice **********
|
@ -0,0 +1,53 @@
|
||||
Here's what will happen after the Reverse Repo Limit Reaches Its Maximum (Spoilers: Very much NOT good for Citadel and friends)
|
||||
|
||||
===============================================================================================================================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/AcedVector](https://www.reddit.com/user/AcedVector/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nkgqje/heres_what_will_happen_after_the_reverse_repo/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
[DD 👨🔬](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22DD%20%F0%9F%91%A8%E2%80%8D%F0%9F%94%AC%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||
I recently saw a post from [r/DDIntoGME](https://www.reddit.com/r/DDIntoGME/) which had said that essentially, if the overnight reverse repo lending that's been going on keeps going in the same pattern it has been, it is going to start reaching its "maximum" amount of lending(500 BIllion) around Friday.
|
||||
|
||||
I wanted to piggyback off of that post because it brought to my mind the question, "What would genuinely happen once it reached its maximum? Would the whole system go kaboom?" Well, to answer that question, let's try to understand the context here a bit first.
|
||||
|
||||
In these reverse repo agreements, the FED is selling bonds to banks (which are presumably lent to HFs) which takes AWAY liquidity(cash money) from the market as the banks are paying cash for the bonds. This isn't necessarily a bad thing given the amount of liquidity that was added TO the market from stimulus checks and overall money supply being at all time highs.
|
||||
|
||||
EDIT: Clarified on the liquidity part as it wasn't as clear
|
||||
|
||||
What's causing the proverbial wrench in the gears here are that these hedgies are overleverged to the tits from not only shorting the treasuries bond market, but also having shit for mortgage backed securities in the housing market, and naked shorting a whole bunch of other stocks with unlimited leverage, with the pure intention of driving multiple companies to bankruptcy.
|
||||
|
||||
Here's where it gets really bad: these banks and hedgefunds absolutely NEED these bonds as collateral because they have overleveraged so hard there aren't enough bonds to go around, most likely multiple times over; the FED is in possession of a lot of these bonds so by temporarily allowing banks to come into possession of them they can kick the can down the road, but what happens when the maximum amount of lending is reached?
|
||||
|
||||
Let's walk through the process:
|
||||
|
||||
1\. As time goes on, theoretically either more counterparties would need bonds as collateral or the existing counterparties would need MORE bonds to post as collateral to keep kicking the can down the road and prevent being margin called.
|
||||
|
||||
2\. Someone gets margin called as they can't post enough collateral (theoretically bonds lent by the FED), causing a cascade of margin calls across the bonds market leading to a short squeeze of treasury bonds from liquidation.
|
||||
|
||||
3\. The liquidation of various securities (such as stock postions) coupled with the spike in treasuries bond price would lead to a stock market crash, leading to even MORE margin calls from overleveraged short positions(some even within the same firms that got margin called before, this is probably where Citadel would be in this scenario as they shorted both the treasury bonds market and meme stocks)
|
||||
|
||||
4\. Short squeeze of all meme stocks from forced liquidation as the tendieman cometh.
|
||||
|
||||
(This part is edited as of edit 3) How soon would this be able to happen? Well, this still remains more of a theoretical unfortunately. Since after some kind redditors corrected me and I found out the 500 billion limit was for repo agreements only and that the reverse repo agreement is limited to 80 billion per counterparty (as of right now there is an estimated 7.2 billion per counterparty, read edit 3 to see why), it would seem there's a while before it gets to that point, IF it gets to that point. I doubt the FED would accept lending 80 billion per counterparty (there's 54 counterparties as of the most current agreement), so in my opinion I feel like the only way we see this happen is if someone gets margin called, or the FED stops accepting to lend as many bonds to counterparties. The more likely option, believe it or not is that someone (maybe a certain hedgie Citadel 😉) gets margin called. The FED doesn't really have enough of a reason to say "hey you look fucked and giving you bonds doesn't look like it'll help", so that would leave the margin call option. Given the other catalysts Citadel and co have to watch out for in the near future (T + 21 today, gamestop earnings, the shareholder meetings, how fucked they are in the housing market, the list goes on), I wouldn't be surprised if we see a margin call happen soon that would trip some wires in the bonds market and cause a short squeeze that leads to the MOASS.
|
||||
|
||||
Hope this jumbled mess made some sense to you all, as I'm writing this now its about midnight so I wouldn't be surprised if I happened to make a couple of mistakes when writing this out. If anything, I'll hang out in the comments and make some edits along the way. :)
|
||||
|
||||
Edit: people were asking about the source post I pulled the limit from so I've linked it below. Give that OP some love!
|
||||
|
||||
Edit 2: I've seen some questions asking if cash can just be used as collateral instead for treasury bonds. Now, this may be wrong so take this answer with a grain of salt, but as far as I understand, you need treasury bonds as collateral to prevent being margin called from shorting treasury bonds. These are government bonds, which people have invested in with the idea that their money is safe and sound. If at any point they need to take money out of, say a 10 year bond, but all of a sudden the bond disappeared, thats ALL of their money gone.. and I doubt the US wants THAT to happen because of what it means for the US economy.
|
||||
|
||||
Edit 3(Edited once again): There's some talk about the 500 billion cap being for repo agreements only and not reverse repo agreements, after researching more and some friendly redditors correcting me in the comments about it I saw that it seems like this is the case as the reverse repo cap had been virtually removed in 2013. The only type of cap I see is that there is a maximum of 80 billion per counterparty when it comes to reverse repo overnight agreements. Given there are currently 54 counterparties as of the latest agreement of 394 billion, there's an average of 7.2 billion per counterparty as of right now. However, I genuinely doubt the FED would accept lending 54 counterparties 80 BILLION each. That would be over 4 trillion used daily in bonds lent out. A margin call by other means would be more likely to happen in my opinion.
|
||||
|
||||
Edit 4: I've seen a lot of questions asking if the FED would just raise the limit to try to kick the can down the road, and I don't think they would do that for a couple of reasons. The first is that I presume they have the foresight (unlike the greedy hedgefunds) to see that many people's finances are being put at risk so they would rather have this end sooner than later. That, and they stand to gain a lot from squeezing hedgefunds and liquidating. The main argument that comes to my mind is that when the MOASS happens and everyone gets their tendies they are going to be able to get some nice tax money off of that (a lot of rich people hide their wealth in offshore accounts so they don't have to pay as many taxes, so its good for some of this money to be in the hands of retail).
|
||||
|
||||
Source post I got the upper limit from:
|
||||
|
||||
<https://www.reddit.com/r/DDintoGME/comments/nk9979/reverse_repo_overnight_lending_will_hit_the_upper/?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share>
|
||||
|
||||
FED links about the reverse repo/ repo agreements: <https://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/domestic-market-operations/monetary-policy-implementation/repo-reverse-repo-agreements/repurchase-agreement-operational-details>
|
||||
|
||||
<https://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/rrp_faq>
|
12
DD/2021-05-26-How-Would-a-Crypto-Dividend-Work.md
Normal file
12
DD/2021-05-26-How-Would-a-Crypto-Dividend-Work.md
Normal file
@ -0,0 +1,12 @@
|
||||
Posting this for anyone who was wondering how a "Crypto Dividend" would work 💎🙌🚀
|
||||
===================================================================================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/pezza31](https://www.reddit.com/user/pezza31/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nlfcha/posting_this_for_anyone_who_was_wondering_how_a/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
[Discussion 🦍](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22Discussion%20%F0%9F%A6%8D%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://i.redd.it/hu2fq4ejgg171.jpg)
|
@ -0,0 +1,86 @@
|
||||
Reverse Repos Showing Possible Evidence of Forced Liquidations
|
||||
==============================================================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/AcedVector](https://www.reddit.com/user/AcedVector/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nlxom6/reverse_repos_showing_possible_evidence_of_forced/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
[DD 👨🔬](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22DD%20%F0%9F%91%A8%E2%80%8D%F0%9F%94%AC%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||
Pre-DD Message:
|
||||
|
||||
Hello you beautiful apes! Before I get into this DD I just wanted to say that I am so proud of everyone for holding against these wall street crooks. We're finally starting to see some change happen and more and more people are starting to catch on to how fucked of a position the hedgies are really in right now, and it genuinely makes me happy that we've come from just some stupid retail investors looking for a quick buck to an educated mastermind of apes who scour the sub for DD and knowledge. With all that said, let's get into the DD!
|
||||
|
||||
The Good Stuff:
|
||||
|
||||
As I myself was scouring this sub for info I had come across an interesting [post](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nlu3wb/coincidental_link_in_decreasing_parties_for/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3) by [u/qwert4the1](https://www.reddit.com/user/qwert4the1/) (show them some love!) who had found a connection between the price surges in GME and the amount of counterparties within the reverse repo agreements. Specifically, they had mentioned that on days when there was a significant price increase compared to the norm (today, May 26th, would be a good example), the amount of counterparties who were accepted in the reverse repo agreements the day of or the day after had *decreased*. Now, why is this incredibly important if this connection holds true and how can it point to some interesting conclusions? To understand that, we have to understand the main prerequisite to these repo reverse agreements, which is according to the Fed FAQ page:
|
||||
|
||||
[An 80 billion max per counterparty, hm?](https://preview.redd.it/pv3jripp9k171.png?width=465&format=png&auto=webp&s=9f6e860076f899e8ad04354d7b02514dad450106)
|
||||
|
||||
We also have to understand that in these overnight reverse repo agreements, the Desk (The Open Market Trading Desk the Fed uses for these transactions) sells treasury securities that it holds in the System Open Market Account (SOMA) to these eligible counterparties. What that means is that the aggregate counterparty amount of treasury securities that can be lended overnight is limited by the amount that is held in SOMA. As of May 19th, here are these amounts:
|
||||
|
||||
[Take note of the 4 TRILLION that it has in Treasury Notes and Bonds.](https://preview.redd.it/1lp15o74dk171.png?width=962&format=png&auto=webp&s=6fce3b40c66599b746de3b854f70768facf85ea3)
|
||||
|
||||
So in other words, there are 2 limitations to take note of for overnight RRP agreements:
|
||||
|
||||
1. 80 billion max per counterparty
|
||||
|
||||
2. 4 trillion held in SOMA
|
||||
|
||||
Why are these limitations important to take note of? Well, because the logical conclusion to draw is that the Fed uses these limitations to some extent in order determine whether they should accept or reject a counterparty in the agreement. This leads into why I feel the connection between the counterparties and the price surges in GME are important, because in my mind there's only a couple of explanations as to why the amount of counterparties in the ON RRP agreement would *decrease* as the price in GME *surges*:
|
||||
|
||||
1. The aggregate amount treasury securities lent to the counterparties in these agreements are reaching an uncomfortable amount so they are choosing their counterparties more carefully.
|
||||
|
||||
2. Marge is calling some of the counterparties that could potentially have the treasury bonds be used as collateral for short positions in some certain stocks ( perhaps GME? ;) )and are forcefully liquidating them, thus they don't need to be part of the agreement. Side note: (If some of the counterparties are banks, then the hedge funds that banks are potentially lending these treasury bonds/notes to for collateral could be margin called and forcefully liquidated, thus the bank having no reason to ask for the bonds does not take part in the agreement.)
|
||||
|
||||
3. A mix of the two
|
||||
|
||||
Conclusion:
|
||||
|
||||
Here's why I think we might be seeing both *forced liquidations* as well as *more selectivity from the Desk* in lending treasury securities, given that the connection between the counterparties and price surges in GME is correct:
|
||||
|
||||
- The 1st point alone wouldn't be enough of a reason to necessarily be more selective in choosing counterparties, as the current amount being lent (450 billion as of today) is about less than a quarter of the amount of the treasury notes/bonds in SOMA, and there are more than FOURTY counterparties as of the latest agreement.
|
||||
|
||||
- If there are forceful liquidations happening among the counterparties(which are most likely banks), it serves as a threefold hit:
|
||||
|
||||
1. Less counterparties would be needed in these agreements, lowering the counterparty amount but raising the average amount of treasury bonds/notes lent per counterparty.
|
||||
|
||||
2. With the average amount lent per existing counterparty increasing, the Fed has to take more into account what the counterparties are using these treasury bonds/notes for.
|
||||
|
||||
3. If most of the existing counterparties are banks, who lend these treasury bonds/notes to hedge funds for collateral in a short position, and they learn the banks they have lent to beforehand but not anymore (from hedgies being forcefully liquidated) are being connected to margin calls and forced liquidations, the Fed would be less inclined to lend these bonds/notes to the banks currently in the agreement as time goes on as it would become more risky to do so.
|
||||
|
||||
- These three points working in tandem with each other would lead to the Fed having a strong enough reason to be more selective to counterparties in future agreements, while also serving as a explanation for liquidations being a partial cause to the decrease in the amount of counterparties as as result of a GME price surge.
|
||||
|
||||
Sources:
|
||||
|
||||
[FAQs: Overnight Reverse Repurchase Agreement Operational Exercise - FEDERAL RESERVE BANK of NEW YORK (newyorkfed.org)](https://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/rrp_faq)
|
||||
|
||||
[Repo and Reverse Repo Agreements - FEDERAL RESERVE BANK of NEW YORK (newyorkfed.org)](https://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/domestic-market-operations/monetary-policy-implementation/repo-reverse-repo-agreements)
|
||||
|
||||
[Repo and Reverse Repo Operations - Federal Reserve Bank of New York (newyorkfed.org)](https://apps.newyorkfed.org/markets/autorates/tomo-results-display?SHOWMORE=TRUE&startDate=01/01/2000&enddate=01/01/2000)
|
||||
|
||||
[System Open Market Account Holdings of Domestic Securities - FEDERAL RESERVE BANK of NEW YORK (newyorkfed.org)](https://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/soma-holdings)
|
||||
|
||||
As always, thank you for reading my DDs you guys. I will try to hang in the comments for edits as well if anything. :)
|
||||
|
||||
Edit: 1.8k likes!! Holy mackerel thank you guys I appreciate your support very much. 🤠🙏
|
||||
|
||||
Edit 2: WOW you guys are blowing this post out of the water! Thanks for 7k likes everybody! :)
|
||||
|
||||
Edit 3: I would like to point out some amazing counterpoints to this DD in the comments, as I feel it is always important to address both sides of the argument. No DD is perfect(mine certainly isn't) so I would like to thank you guys for bringing these points up:
|
||||
|
||||
1. Why use bonds/notes as collateral when they can just use cash when it comes to short positions in stocks?
|
||||
|
||||
2. If the Fed has been more selective in ON RRP agreements, wouldn't it be showing in their acceptance rate (which has always been 100%)
|
||||
|
||||
3. Correlation does not equal causation, the GME price surge doesn't necessarily have to 100% be connected to a decrease in the counterparties.
|
||||
|
||||
I'll admit, I don't have much of a rebuttal to these as they are solid points, and I appreciate you guys bringing it up because it helps me keep more things in mind to create stronger, more effective DD in the future.
|
||||
|
||||
Edit 4: A fellow ape in the comments gave a link to the list of eligible counterparties for RRP agreements:
|
||||
|
||||
<https://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/rrp_counterparties>
|
||||
|
||||
Most if not all of these counterparties are banks, so it lends credence to the idea that banks would be lending these treasury bonds to hedgefunds, as well as the banks themselves needing bonds as well (since there is a lot of cash but not collateral in the bonds market at the moment)
|
@ -0,0 +1,54 @@
|
||||
The guaranteed short squeeze trigger: The NFT/Crypto/Digital Dividend
|
||||
=====================================================================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/integ3r_p0sitron](https://www.reddit.com/user/integ3r_p0sitron/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nmd7cr/the_guaranteed_short_squeeze_trigger_the/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
[Education 👨🏫 | Data 🔢](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22Education%20%F0%9F%91%A8%E2%80%8D%F0%9F%8F%AB%20%7C%20Data%20%F0%9F%94%A2%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||
Others have pointed this out, but it seems there's still a lack of awareness or realization of how serious this is.
|
||||
|
||||
The crypto dividend is NOT a joke.
|
||||
|
||||
There is one PROVEN way to trigger the short squeeze and it was done by Overstock last year. In 8. march 2020 OSTK traded at around $3 per share. After the crypto dividend was released the stock soared to $120. While the crypto dividend itself, which you received 10 per share soared to over 8 dollars per tZero.
|
||||
|
||||
Why it works:
|
||||
|
||||
When a hedgie shorts a stock, he borrows it through the broker from its real owner and sells it. Because the one who purchases it believes he is also an owner, a single share has 2 owners. When a company then pays a dividend. Both owners expect a dividend, yet the company only pays dividend to one owner because the broker only holds 1 real share. The dividend for the fake share is paid out of the shorters pocket to make the whole system function.
|
||||
|
||||
If gamestop pays a Crypto / NFT / Digital dividend, then in order for the system to continue, the shorter will have to find and acquire this NFT dividend and give it to the guy he borrowed the GME share from. However, this is literally impossible. NFTs are non-fungible. There is simply no way for him to acquire it or something equivalent because only holders of GME will get it. This means the broker will have no choice but to force all the shorts to exit their positions before the Ex. Dividend, triggering the short squeeze.
|
||||
|
||||
TL;DR:
|
||||
|
||||
All that is necessary to trigger the squeeze, is for the gamestop NFT team to make a meme ape or diamond hands or rocket NFT artwork and hand it out as a property dividend to shareholders. This will automatically trigger the squeeze. So please meme the NFT dividend into reality.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/q67cuc42ep171.png?width=1016&format=png&auto=webp&s=04e6b6031037d7976e242b8a50d129a68f6a2cea)
|
||||
|
||||
EDIT: Thanks for all the awards and attention. It falls to you to to keep the dream alive of the digital dividend. Some common questions I've seen:
|
||||
|
||||
How will I get the dividend? How will it work?
|
||||
|
||||
There are many ways to skin a cat here, so the simple answer is don't worry about it until it is actually going to happen. I've seen someone say that for overstock their broker held it until they transferred it to their own account on a tradable exchange (since the broker didn't deal with cryptocurrencies). The logistics aren't complicated. Here is one hypothetical way: You hold the stonk until the ex. dividend date, that means you will receive the dividend. GME issues dividend to stockbrokers who are holding the share on your behalf, this means the broker will have to create cryptowallets to hold the payout (this is not a complicated process, don't worry), it is then the brokers responsibility to make sure you can get it from them and you will need your own wallet (again not complicated). **"***What about gas fees?"* Yes, this is a problem right now but there are ways around it. They could use a layer 2 solution, or they could use a different blockchain, basically if there's a will here there's a way.
|
||||
|
||||
WTF? An NFT can't be a dividend.
|
||||
|
||||
Yes it can. Pretty much anything can be a dividend. It is called a property dividend.
|
||||
|
||||
Nuance between an NFT dividend and a Crypto dividend
|
||||
|
||||
If gamestop minted a GME token that is essentially a GMECoin which you use as a currency, then it is fungible as opposed to an NFT which is non-fungible. It will trigger the squeeze but will be less effective each time they pay out such a dividend because once it is in circulation, hedgies can buy it off the market to maintain a short position. If you got an NFT artwork however, you would get a personal artwork with a unique ID that signifies it as the specific artwork you received as a dividend for the stock you held. It cannot really be exchanged for any other and each time the company pays such a dividend it would be unique so a hedgie can't buy one of the older NFT artworks and pay it to you as a dividend to stay in a short position. *"**But these artworks that we receive will all pretty much have the same value so TECHNICALLY they'll be fungible"* This is entirely subjective. Lets say you received a Rare Pepe artwork as an NFT dividend and you could use that rare pepe in a video game, then that rare pepe will be the specific rare pepe that you personally used to beat the game, win a tournament or whatever. That would make it non-fungible in the eyes of some. If you like the NFT that you got, well then it's non-fungible. If you wouldn't trade your NFT for someone elses even though they are mostly the same, well then they're still not fungible. Wouldn't you want the NFT that DFV received as his digital dividend? It can't be any other. Also, each time there's a dividend payment, It can be a different NFT set, which means hedgies will NEVER be able to get them on the market before it is paid out meaning shorts can be squeezed for ever, again and again.
|
||||
|
||||
What happens if the broker refuses to margin call the shorts and refuses to give you the divvy?
|
||||
|
||||
I would imagine that they could be sued. If you own the share, that entitles you to the divvy.
|
||||
|
||||
Can they weasel out of this somehow?
|
||||
|
||||
The brilliance of the crypto divvy is that it is a checkmate move. There are no tricks they can pull at the DTCC or the OCC or whatever, no accounting games they can pull, no fake shares or NFTs they can pull out of thin air to stay in a short position. When you're checkmated, the game is over. The crypto divvy bypasses ALL of the institutions. If the institutions are the chess pieces protecting the hedgie king, the crypto divvy is the orbital strike on the king directly. The divvy is also genius because it encourages people to hold. You want the divvy right? Well then you gotta hold.
|
||||
|
||||
Ok so hedgie has to close before ex. dividend, can't he short the top after the squeeze and manipulate the stock down again?
|
||||
|
||||
Gamestop can simply promise to release another NFT dividend and hedgie will have to buy all the memes all over again. And again, and again until he learns his lesson.
|
@ -0,0 +1,174 @@
|
||||
Clearing up the Fed Reverse Repos and What it Could Indicate
|
||||
============================================================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/c-digs](https://www.reddit.com/user/c-digs/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nmxmri/clearing_up_the_fed_reverse_repos_and_what_it/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
[Possible DD 👨🔬](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22Possible%20DD%20%F0%9F%91%A8%E2%80%8D%F0%9F%94%AC%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||
EDIT: [u/CalamariAce](https://www.reddit.com/u/CalamariAce/) shared a great video which summarizes a similar conclusion that does a great job of explaining it: <https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AMgUlW7zSzg#t=950>
|
||||
|
||||
First and foremost, more than ever, before you read the rest of this post:
|
||||
|
||||
I am not a financial advisor and do not interpret anything written below as financial advice.
|
||||
|
||||
I think that nearly every post on the Fed RRP and the increasing amounts has been interpreting this data incorrectly and understanding why it is happening could be very important in understanding the events in the upcoming days/weeks/months.
|
||||
|
||||
The lightbulb moment happened for me when I read [u/HODLTheLineMyFriend](https://www.reddit.com/user/HODLTheLineMyFriend/) 's post: [Reverse Repo Overnight Lending Chart](https://www.reddit.com/r/DDintoGME/comments/nmcn1e/reverse_repo_overnight_lending_chart_update_for/) post from yesterday.
|
||||
|
||||
User [u/wehadmagnets](https://www.reddit.com/u/wehadmagnets/) posted snippets and a reference to [a Financial Times article](https://www.ft.com/content/cdec7f2e-6129-412c-b118-8906a2a0f92f) that drew my attention.
|
||||
|
||||
I post the TL;DR points of interest below and highlight the key points:
|
||||
|
||||
- Today's Reverse Repo was the largest ever
|
||||
|
||||
- "Investors" (more than just banks) are seeking places to park cash, as other 'safe' places are drying up and/or having zero or negative rates
|
||||
|
||||
- "It is also not over yet." -- analyst at Oxford Economics
|
||||
|
||||
- Cash reserves ballooning due to "the Fed's purchases of $120bn of Treasuries and agency mortgage-backed securities each month"
|
||||
|
||||
- Money-market funds are getting swamped with people's cash (<speculation>flight from equities?</speculation>)
|
||||
|
||||
- Fed is trying to avoid negative rates in money market
|
||||
|
||||
- No one thinks it's over
|
||||
|
||||
- Fed may have to raise interest rates on RRP or reserve balances in member banks to keep the federal funds rates from going lower (at 0.06 on target of 0.0-0.25)
|
||||
|
||||
This is when it clicked for me and my subsequent discussion with [u/Criand](https://www.reddit.com/u/Criand/) helped clarify why I think the RRPs are increasing.
|
||||
|
||||
Understanding assets versus liabilities for a commercial bank
|
||||
|
||||
A few weeks back, I was watching Gary Gensler's MIT series on Blockchain.
|
||||
|
||||
*(Aside: if you have any interest in currency, economics, finance, technology, or banking, I strongly recommend the series because Gensler breaks down complex topics into a very easy to digest format. The series is highly recommended because it will give you a whole new perspective on currency, fiat currency, the gold standard, etc.****)*
|
||||
|
||||
In [the second lecture](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5auv_xrvoJk), I remembered he said something that caught my attention:
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/flr1sh3j8v171.png?width=778&format=png&auto=webp&s=e5847fc0983eb936712fab9768967e9378a9b2ff)
|
||||
|
||||
A recommended video if you are at all curious to really understand the gold standard, fiat currency, economics, ledgers, banking, and finance
|
||||
|
||||
[At 51:42](https://youtu.be/5auv_xrvoJk?t=3102), he starts a discussion about fiat currency and ledgers. Of currency, he states:
|
||||
|
||||
> It represents central bank liabilities and that's important. It's a liability of a central bank it's not an asset. It's their liability side...There's also a second form of money and that's when you make a deposit in a bank that's a liability of a commercial bank.
|
||||
|
||||
[At 54:22 he says](https://youtu.be/5auv_xrvoJk?t=3262):
|
||||
|
||||
> But it is a liability on the books and records. so it is a matter of accounting in double-entry bookkeeping.
|
||||
|
||||
The entire discussion starting from 51:42 is fantastic and I strongly urge everyone to take the time to watch it.
|
||||
|
||||
On the other hand, government securities are considered an asset and not a liability. [This article does a great job of breaking it down](https://courses.lumenlearning.com/wm-macroeconomics/chapter/banking-profits-and-losses-name/):
|
||||
|
||||
> For a bank, the assets are the financial instruments that either the bank is holding (its reserves) or those instruments where other parties owe money to the bank---like loans made by the bank and U.S. government securities, such as U.S. Treasury bonds purchased by the bank.
|
||||
>
|
||||
> When bank customers deposit money into a checking account, savings account, or a certificate of deposit, the bank views these deposits as liabilities. After all, the bank owes these deposits to its customers, and are obligated to return the funds when the customers wish to withdraw their money. In the example shown in Figure 1, the Safe and Secure Bank holds $10 million in deposits.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/eq8mzoenzu171.jpg?width=757&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=1c69c7eca4829a6ec4ab98371ce1b3193e223f82)
|
||||
|
||||
Notice the assets on the left include US Government securities and the liabilities on the right represent deposits or customer cash.
|
||||
|
||||
So why would a bank want to purchase Treasuries?
|
||||
|
||||
This is the fundamental question and the answer is really simple and where the dots finally connected for me: every single night, they are accumulating more and more customer deposits in cash or cash equivalent accounts relative to the assets on their balance sheet and this is throwing their bookkeeping out of whack.
|
||||
|
||||
To make up for this, every single day they need to wipe these liabilities off of their books and to do this, they use the RRPs to exchange them for assets in the form of Treasuries because it's "free" at the moment. The amount they are swapping does not represent the amount of cash deposits they have, but rather the amount needed to balance their liabilities to their assets (and it may not be a 1:1 ratio; may be some other ratio that they need to adhere to).
|
||||
|
||||
[u/Criand](https://www.reddit.com/u/Criand/) asked a very important question in our discussion:
|
||||
|
||||
Why overnight notes and not longer term?
|
||||
|
||||
Because they need the cash back the next day for operations. If a customer withdraws the cash or uses the cash to enter into another transaction, they need to have it in their ledger.
|
||||
|
||||
So every night, the banks are wiping this liability off of their books by converting them into assets in the form of Treasuries. Then the very next day, they swap it back for cash because they need the cash for normal operations.
|
||||
|
||||
Rinse and repeat each day until the cash deposits start to decrease relative to their assets(hold this thought).
|
||||
|
||||
What does this mean for apes?
|
||||
|
||||
I'm going to repeat this again: I am not a financial advisor and not a single one of you should construe this as financial advice.
|
||||
|
||||
About three weeks ago, I moved all of my wife's 403b and my kids' 529s into cash. This means I parked the gains in money market accounts *and now it's a liability for my bank*. (Again, I am not implying that any of you should do this, only providing background for how I connected the dots.)
|
||||
|
||||
This is where bullet 5 up above turned the lightbulb on for me: what if there is a huge wave of capital flight from equities into money market accounts? What if this is what is throwing off the ledgers of these banks? What if all of the wealthy and those "in the know" already know what is coming and are converting their assets into liabilities on the ledgers of the banks by moving their accounts to cash in the form of money market accounts?
|
||||
|
||||
The capital flight from equities has started and this is what we are seeing reflected with the Fed RRP. This could be the clearest signal that there is anticipation of a big downward crash. The reason this continues unabated and grows is because this is all by the books and precisely what this mechanism is designed to do: soak up liability on the books of the commercial banks. It's just that in this case, those liabilities are customer deposits which are accumulating in money market accounts.
|
||||
|
||||
But the market has been green?
|
||||
|
||||
This is speculation at this point, but I think it's really simple.
|
||||
|
||||
Two weeks ago, I finally started to dump the remaining securities I was holding as I converted everything to cash. I only had F, GM, and GE left. Then this week, all three have had absolutely stellar returns(all the more reason you should not take any of this as financial advice because I left thousands in gains on the table by paperhanding F, GM, and GE). What gives? I am guessing that there is a market-wide pump and dump happening right now where banks are basically finding new bagholders before everything dives.
|
||||
|
||||
The preceding two weeks of red in the market had three purposes:
|
||||
|
||||
1. Banks needed to capture some gains and liquidity
|
||||
|
||||
2. Create the illusion of a pullback and "value" to find new bagholders
|
||||
|
||||
3. Driving up the price of equities is also a mechanism for increasing their asset to liability ratio at least temporarily
|
||||
|
||||
The above is purely speculation and do not manage your portfolio and your life savings based on any of my bullshit speculation; do your own DD and come to your own conclusions. I emphasize again that there are two ways for them to fix their ledgers: swap cash deposits for Treasuries or somehow increase the value of their assets. If it's the latter, we could see the start of another bull run and I could be completely wrong; I literally have no idea.
|
||||
|
||||
Is it really that simple?
|
||||
|
||||
Look, I'm a big fan of Occam's Razor. It's really that simple.
|
||||
|
||||
1. Bank customers are converting their investments to cash or the value of the assets they are holding are decreasing relative to the deposits
|
||||
|
||||
2. Cash deposits are a liability on the books of commercial banks
|
||||
|
||||
3. Every day, they need to balance their liabilities with their assets
|
||||
|
||||
4. As the cash builds up, they need a mechanism to convert them to an asset
|
||||
|
||||
5. But they also need to be able to easily convert it back to cash for normal operations the next day; they need an asset that is highly liquid
|
||||
|
||||
6. The Fed RRP operation is a free way to do this and balance their books
|
||||
|
||||
7. Every single one of the counterparties is now carrying an excess of cash because customers are pulling out of equities OR the value of their assets are decreasing (loans and CMBS are both "assets" for a bank)
|
||||
|
||||
I am firmly in the camp that there is nothing nefarious going on with the Fed RRPs; it's really as simple as the banks wiping the liabilities off of their books at night and getting back the cash the next day.
|
||||
|
||||
What one *should* be concerned about and start pondering is *why* they are in a state of having excess deposits *relative to their assets*.
|
||||
|
||||
Remember that thought I asked you to hold: the linchpin is that they must balance their assets and liabilities on their ledgers. So this Fed RRP ballooning indicates that there is a severe imbalance which they are correcting with the RRP. Either their cash deposits are surging, their assets (like loans and CMBS) are dropping, or a bit of both is happening.
|
||||
|
||||
What about the previous periods of high activity in 2014-2017?
|
||||
|
||||
If you look at the charts, this has occurred previously as well. Notably in 2014 - 2017. But I think that this is relatively easy to understand.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/c99f25db4v171.png?width=528&format=png&auto=webp&s=e3673edb823f072a73e8d1adaccfebc83c610d7f)
|
||||
|
||||
Yellow and blue text are mine. There is a high volume of customer deposits on the ledgers of the banks entering and exiting the 2016 election cycle. Then we've had a tremendous run in equities since 2017 so banks have had less cash to balance.
|
||||
|
||||
What is unique is that this buildup right now is so massive and does not correspond to typical times when a bank would need to balance their ledger.
|
||||
|
||||
This daily increasing amount means that every single day, more and more of their customers are moving their deposits to cash or their assets are losing value or some mix of both.
|
||||
|
||||
TA;DR analogy to [u/rocketseeker](https://www.reddit.com/u/rocketseeker/)
|
||||
|
||||
Let's say you're running drugs and you obviously deal with a lot of cash.
|
||||
|
||||
Holding onto all of this cash is a *liability* because it's easy for someone to steal it from you (for example) or what if you get caught by the po-po with all this cash? You need something that's as good as cash without the downsides.
|
||||
|
||||
So ideally, you have some way to change your paper cash (a *liability*) to something that's harder to steal (an *asset*) and less risky if some police officer shakes you down. You need something that has three qualities:
|
||||
|
||||
1. It should be stable so if you put in $1, you get back $1
|
||||
|
||||
2. It should be easy to convert it back to cash any time (be highly liquid)
|
||||
|
||||
3. It should have a pretty stable supply
|
||||
|
||||
Property and real estate? Too difficult to flip it back into cash when you need it. Cars? Bitcoin? Gold chains? Same problems and very volatile; convert $1 and you may not get back $1 tomorrow.
|
||||
|
||||
I don't know the right equivalent for a drug lord because there are very few real-world equivalents to government debt like Treasuries, [but maybe you convert it into Tide laundry detergent](https://nymag.com/news/features/tide-detergent-drugs-2013-1/) because 1) it's hard to steal and 2) there's always demand for Tide; you just go to the local laundromats and sell it to them to get cash back, 3) if the police discover your stash of Tide, what are they gonna do 🤣? You've just found a way to convert *a liability* into *an asset.*
|
||||
|
||||
Now whenever you have an abundance of cash, you convert it to Tide. When you need your cash, you sell the Tide and get your cash back.
|
||||
|
||||
That's what's happening with the banks and the Fed. The banks have a lot of customer cash depositsOR their assets have lost value and cannot balance their books. So they exchange their cash for Tide (Treasuries) so that they have less liabilities relative to their assets. And they are doing this every single day with increasing frequency because they are holding onto more customer deposits in cash/cash equivalent OR their assets are losing value relative to the amount of cash deposits they have.
|
132
DD/2021-05-28-GME-Ownership-Analysis.md
Normal file
132
DD/2021-05-28-GME-Ownership-Analysis.md
Normal file
@ -0,0 +1,132 @@
|
||||
GME Ownership Analysis 5/28- Hedgies R FuQ
|
||||
==========================================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/H3RB28](https://www.reddit.com/user/H3RB28/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nneevk/gme_ownership_analysis_528_hedgies_r_fuq/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
[DD 👨🔬](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22DD%20%F0%9F%91%A8%E2%80%8D%F0%9F%94%AC%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||
Hello fellow Apes,
|
||||
|
||||
Obligatory Disclaimer: I am not a Financial Advisor, and this is not Financial Advice. Always do your own homework. That being said.. lets get started.
|
||||
|
||||
TL,DR: Hedies R FuQ. I used data from FTSE Russell's own Database 'Mergent Online' to calculate the current ownership numbers for GME... and my TITS ARE JACKED.
|
||||
|
||||
I found some very interesting ownership numbers for GME today. I am using Mergent Online as my data source, which is produced by FTSE Russell.. yes the same FTSE Russell that runs the Russell 2000 Index, which GME is *currently* a part of. I have access to Mergent through the university I am currently at while finishing my bachelors in Finance in a few months.
|
||||
|
||||
Now before we get fully started on a simple ownership analysis.. I'm going to take us on a trip back to middle school math class and the dreaded topic of Algebra. Proportions and Cross Multiplying are a pretty simple topic and go something like this:
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/mz00tbfuwy171.jpg?width=720&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=8b5901da8109b43c71e29b3807a9a5637e8fb716)
|
||||
|
||||
Proportions and Cross Multiplication
|
||||
|
||||
For making Ownership calculations we need a base to go off of. Mergent Online (once again information reported by the index that GME is a part of) reports the ownership of GME at the following:
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/6io407b6yy171.jpg?width=3634&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=ea4aaabfb669429f115e1adb79cfdfbb65828caa)
|
||||
|
||||
GME Ownership
|
||||
|
||||
Mergent Online has GME Shares Outstanding as 69,936,000. We need to keep in mind that this is a number reported as of 1/30/2021. Since then, GME has made a secondary offering of 3,500,000 shares. This gives us an Issuer-Stated Total Shares Outstanding of 73,436,000 or 73.436 Million shares.
|
||||
|
||||
Now that we know how many shares there are *supposed* to be, lets check out the Insider Ownership.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/9haw4oug0z171.jpg?width=3622&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=14a97865a44e6a912bf5246a906f1219fde92345)
|
||||
|
||||
GME Insider Ownership
|
||||
|
||||
We can see that the Insider Ownership is broken into two distinct categories: Direct and Indirect Ownership. Direct Ownership is when the shares are listed *directly* in your name, and not say.. in shelter company like RC Ventures. We will do two different calculations in order to display the situation correctly.
|
||||
|
||||
Mergent lists the Direct Ownership at 8,057,864 shares totaling 11.52% ownership pie (we all like pies). This leaves 88.48% left over.. *but how many shares is that wrinkly brained ape?* Lets put our trusty friend Algebra to the test.
|
||||
|
||||
(11.52/8,057,864) = (88.46/X)
|
||||
|
||||
11.52X=712,798,649.44 .. now to find X we divide each side by 11.52.
|
||||
|
||||
X=61,874,882.76
|
||||
|
||||
Now to check our math we add the 88.46% to the 11.52% to get a total ownership number.
|
||||
|
||||
Previously stated ownership: 69,936,000
|
||||
|
||||
8,057,864 + 61,874,882.76= 69,932,746.76
|
||||
|
||||
To me.. being around 4,000 shares within the "Stated Shares Outstanding" checks out enough to me. To calculate the Free Float I added in the extra 3.5 million shares that were a part of the secondary offering (total shares outstanding 73,436,000)
|
||||
|
||||
This would put GME at a Free Float of 65,378,136 shares.
|
||||
|
||||
BUT APE NO INCLUDE TENDIE MASTER!! I know, we are getting there.
|
||||
|
||||
*RC Ventures WAS NOT listed on the "Direct Ownership" list. The Indirect Ownership is stated at 15,760,670 shares.
|
||||
|
||||
Adding the two 'Insider Ownerships' together gives us the following:
|
||||
|
||||
8,057,864 + 15,760,670 = 23,818,534 for insider ownership
|
||||
|
||||
This new number would give us a Free Float of 49,617,466 or 49 Million shares.
|
||||
|
||||
*Up until this point this is all stuff that we have basically already known.. its about to get a little more spicy.* Next we will cover the Institutional Ownership side. Now the Institutional numbers have always been wacky for GME, but I believe these next calculations provide insight into just how big of a hole hedgies have dug themselves.
|
||||
|
||||
GME Institutional Ownership- As Stated by Mergent FTSE Russell:
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/z3kg7s9q5z171.jpg?width=3647&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=dcd3b4b6e56200b41888ca0102fd80528de62b8e)
|
||||
|
||||
Hedgies R FuQ
|
||||
|
||||
Two things IMMEDIATELY stand out to me: #1 Institutions own 56,158,356 shares.... AT 28.87% ownership.. WHAT?!? This statistic is what is *REPORTED* to the index, these numbers definitely could be fudged.. but most likely to the downside and not the upside.
|
||||
|
||||
*So smart Ape.. if Institutions own 28.87% of GME with 56M shares.. how many shares does everyone else (aka Insiders and Retail) own at 71.13%?* Once again, our friend Algebra comes into play.
|
||||
|
||||
(28.87/56,158,356) = (71.13/X)
|
||||
|
||||
28.87X = 3,994,543,862.28 (now we divide each side by 28.87)
|
||||
|
||||
X= 138,363,140.36 or 138.36M shares.. GO APES!
|
||||
|
||||
If we then subtract out the higher Insider Ownership number (Direct + Indirect) this gives us a *Retail Control* of 114,544,606.36 shares or 114 MILLION SHARES.
|
||||
|
||||
*What the Fuq did hedgies get themselves into?!?*
|
||||
|
||||
Now according to the "Institutional Ownership" numbers I wanted to see around about how many Naked Shorts the firms had rehypothecated. To get the Total Shares Outstanding we would then add Institutional Ownership with Retail and Insider Ownership stats:
|
||||
|
||||
56,158,356 + 138,363,140 = 194,521,496 shares.. 194 million fuqing shares.
|
||||
|
||||
So with the institutional numbers and the Issuer stated numbers I came to the conclusion that:
|
||||
|
||||
194,521,496 - 73,436,000 = 121,085,496 or 121 MILLION SHARES NAKED
|
||||
|
||||
What did Kenny get himself into.. well covering 121 MILLION shares he can't get his hands on because 114 MILLION are in the hands of Apes.
|
||||
|
||||
*Please keep in mind these are the reported numbers.. they could truly be MUCH higher.*
|
||||
|
||||
I am always open to criticisms and questions/discussion.
|
||||
|
||||
Be Excellent and Rock on Fellow Apes.
|
||||
|
||||
- H3RB
|
||||
|
||||
Edit: Here is the screen shot from above with the dates highlighted for the base calculations:
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/tr50evybjz171.jpg?width=3354&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=8e1f8f284ff23268916cabf08369388a8b1947bd)
|
||||
|
||||
Edit 2: Full Screen Shots of Institutional Ownership Stats:
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/nwicrfepoz171.png?width=3693&format=png&auto=webp&s=473fcf5d17515aa04e6c6cc8150696426c04bba5)
|
||||
|
||||
Institutional Ownership 1
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/dia9iacsoz171.png?width=3644&format=png&auto=webp&s=364688f6593f56bf6726ec2a440c2cc0b41877f5)
|
||||
|
||||
Institutional Ownership 2
|
||||
|
||||
Edit 3: Direct vs. Indirect Insider Ownership RC Listed as Indirect
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/oz019rwsxz171.jpg?width=3668&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=861b89415e9b82028514b010ad6e0be7189705e1)
|
||||
|
||||
RC Listed as Indirect
|
||||
|
||||
EDIT 4 (5/29 afternoon): I am doing a more comprehensive review of ownership comparing the numbers reported by Mergent and FTSE Russell to those of: GameStop Proxy, Yahoo Finance Premium, FinteliO, Whale Wisdom, Koyfin, Fidelity Research, Nasdaq, CNNMoney, and MarketBeat (I think I named them all.. may be more I'll update as needed). I am trying to match numbers to see if I can find any discrepancies in data reported.
|
||||
|
||||
I have also contacted Mergent & FTSE Russell to try and see if I can get any information on *how* they source their information. On their website it states they have a dedicated data team that updates the data live daily from multiple market sources. I am not sure how true this is, but in the data columns it did say "as of 5/28/21". I will updated on any information about data sources that I receive.
|
@ -0,0 +1,82 @@
|
||||
Why I am Ecstatic GME is Taking a Dump, and the Possible Correlation with AMC and Crypto
|
||||
========================================================================================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/C2theC](https://www.reddit.com/user/C2theC/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nn370o/why_i_am_ecstatic_gme_is_taking_a_dump_and_the/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
[Possible DD 👨🔬](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22Possible%20DD%20%F0%9F%91%A8%E2%80%8D%F0%9F%94%AC%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||
Apes, lend me your ears.
|
||||
|
||||
I am pumped that GME took a fat dive from $268.80 down to below $235.00 as of this post. Why? Because it means we've figured out the *modus operandi* of the shorts, and HFs are fuk.
|
||||
|
||||
TL;DR HODL, because GME is going to the moon. 🚀
|
||||
|
||||
T+35/T+21 Cycles
|
||||
|
||||
This is real, and the juiciest part of this post. As I noted in my [Cyclical Patterns in Failure-To-Deliver (FTD) and Short Interest Reporting](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nezp94/cyclical_patterns_in_failuretodeliver_ftd_and/), written upon the DD of those before me, the T+35/T+21 cycles are consistent, empirical, measurable, and now, *predictable*. Read the DD of [I've estimated the current SI% based on the SI Report Cycle and Deep ITM CALL purchases.](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nc1lny/ive_estimated_the_current_si_based_on_the_si/) by [u/Criand](https://www.reddit.com/u/Criand/) for more details.
|
||||
|
||||
In the chart below, we can see that each T+21 cycle (there are around five, which I've noted above the GME chart ), in every twenty-one trading sessions, GME has a regular spike. The mechanics of this are likely to be kicking-the-can-down-the-road for the FTD cycles, and even if there might be doubters about the underlying cause, you cannot doubt the observable data that this happens exactly every twenty-one days on schedule. If the sun rises every twenty-four hours, who cares if the Earth rotates around the Sun or the Sun rotates around the Earth (shout-out to Galileo Galilei who stood up to the shills of his day)---the sun still rises every twenty-four hours.
|
||||
|
||||
Additionally, I am tracking possible cycles for dips in the yellow lines below the chart. Though I am not sure if there is a definite pattern yet, it is human nature (actually the nature of every system due to entropy) to do the same thing over and over on a repeating basis, such as the timing of morning/night routines of showering and brushing your teeth, aka personal hygiene.
|
||||
|
||||
The one pattern I have seen is that on each Short Interest Reporting Settlement Date, marked by "SIR," GME takes a dump. *Especially* after a run such as the one this week. If the pattern as depicted by the yellow lines holds true, watch out for another dump on the first day of trading next Tuesday.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/k6g14efb6w171.png?width=2433&format=png&auto=webp&s=a63cec898848e621d7b3325722b59dbe130afd24)
|
||||
|
||||
A cyclical pattern emerges
|
||||
|
||||
AMC Correlation
|
||||
|
||||
If you were a HF that was deep in the red shorting GME, consider this strategy:
|
||||
|
||||
1. Buy OTM AMC calls
|
||||
|
||||
2. Spend money to keep the GME price down, let AMC rocket, and let retail FOMO set in
|
||||
|
||||
3. Entice people to paper-hand GME, then sell those AMC calls to them
|
||||
|
||||
4. Buy OTM GME puts
|
||||
|
||||
5. Take the cash generated and drive down the GME price
|
||||
|
||||
6. Sell now-ITM GME puts and pay yourself back
|
||||
|
||||
By doing the above, you can end up spending very little or breaking even on your capital and achieve:
|
||||
|
||||
- Pushing down both the price of GME and AMC at no cost to you!
|
||||
|
||||
- Deflate the morale of GME apes that we missed out on AMC riches
|
||||
|
||||
- Deflate the morale of AMC ape-cousins that they didn't sell at the peak or bought at the top
|
||||
|
||||
- Give a story to Main Stream Media (MSM) to report that the MoASS is over, and that AMC is now -30%, from the peak, never mentioning the +120% from last Friday
|
||||
|
||||
AMC Price Action
|
||||
|
||||
What drove the price action for AMC this week? This section is all speculative, and there are multiple possibilities, some or all or none of which may be true:
|
||||
|
||||
1. There is no news, and there are no sellers, so the only driver for the price action are the shorts themselves
|
||||
|
||||
2. It is not even 2p EST and the volume on AMC is 522M, and the average 20-day volume is 165M. How is a 3× average volume possible on no news, and yesterday was 5×, unless institutions were involved?
|
||||
|
||||
3. Funds are getting margin called and need to cover or provide more cash
|
||||
|
||||
4. Shorts would let AMC go in order have ammo to suppress the price for GME, which is far more detrimental to the shorts
|
||||
|
||||
5. MSM needs a piece to talk about how much AMC came down, to "encourage" GME hodlers to paper-hand and sell, if not now, then build it into the psyche for the MoASS
|
||||
|
||||
Crypto Crash
|
||||
|
||||
The market is a zero-sum game. Due to the amount of losses in crypto, to the tune billions, it is not possible that it was all retail. Institutional investors were the whales that cashed out. The money had to go somewhere. It is likely a good portion went to the manipulation of GME and AMC, as well as the possible covering of margin calls. At the very least, it is still held as cash. This is why the general market hasn't tanked, because shorts haven't had to sell any of their beloved shares in the S&P 500 to cover for GME/AMC.
|
||||
|
||||
Conclusion
|
||||
|
||||
Jacked to the tits!
|
||||
|
||||
__________
|
||||
|
||||
Edit: *modus operandi* not *operus modi -* thanks [u/Mufragnosky](https://www.reddit.com/u/Mufragnosky/)
|
@ -0,0 +1,130 @@
|
||||
Learn from the past, when they didn't care to hide.
|
||||
==================================================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/JustBeingPunny](https://www.reddit.com/user/JustBeingPunny/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nyxs1f/learn_from_the_past_when_they_didnt_care_to_hide/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
[DD 👨🔬](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22DD%20%F0%9F%91%A8%E2%80%8D%F0%9F%94%AC%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||
Have you heard of Max-D? No, nor had I. I searched for 'naked short selling' through EDGAR (SEC's public database' and amongst all of the filings, I stumbled upon their wonderful little company.
|
||||
|
||||
What makes them so special? Why even bother with a post? Well, they were subjected to manipulative stock trading that was driving their share price into the ground, much like the attempt on GameStop. However, like overstock, this company fought back hard. The went public to expose the naked short selling with figures and number to prove just how bad it was.
|
||||
|
||||
Rather than a long TL;DR at the end, I'll be posting recap summaries throughout. You should be able to follow the entire post reading these summaries... I hope. The whole thing is a good read, I promise!
|
||||
|
||||
*As always, if any information or interpretation is incorrect, help me correct it! I'm happy to edit accordingly!*
|
||||
|
||||
_______________________________________________________________________________
|
||||
|
||||
Background --
|
||||
|
||||
June 14, 2018 -- 19.09pm ET
|
||||
|
||||
*Max Sound Corporation (OTC:MAXD) and its Shareholders are being continuously victimized by Manipulative Trading Practices and Abusive Naked Short Selling orchestrated by Knight/Virtu (NITE), Cantor Fitzgerald (CANT), Canaccord Genuity (CSTI),* *Citadel* *(CDEL) and eTrade/G1 (ETRF) for the past three years with the objective to systematically lower the MAXD share price by selling billions of counterfeit shares that generate enormous free money for the market makers who have no intention of ever covering a short position. In fact, they have paid bashers that spew lies and libel wherever legitimate shareholders congregate.*
|
||||
|
||||
*Yesterday the Company reported that it had engaged a leading provider of Regulation SHO compliance monitoring, short sale trading statistics and market integrity surveillance related to substantial naked short selling of its stock.*
|
||||
|
||||
*Max Sound has now registered complaints related to these activities with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and Financial Industry Regulatory Authority (FINRA).* *The Company encourages MAXD investors and shareholders who believe they have been harmed, to file complaints as well. Remember, the value is being stolen from your investment, only because well-organized criminals are able to operate with absolute power, unmonitored inside the industry that handles, manages, trades and ultimately steals the total value of your asset.*
|
||||
|
||||
This is a direct statement. The gigantic titanium swingers these mofos have. I guess I'm not surprised Citadel are in there. Though things continue to get REALLY interesting...
|
||||
|
||||
June 14, 2018 -- Earlier the same morning -- 08.49 ET
|
||||
|
||||
*Max Sound Corporation has engaged a leading provider of Regulation SHO compliance monitoring, short sale trading statistics and market integrity surveillance related to substantial short selling of its stock. Regulation SHO requires bona-fide market-making activities to include making purchases and sales in roughly comparable amounts.*
|
||||
|
||||
So you're being naked shorted right into the ground. You feel helpless and have nowhere to go. What do you do? You bring in the experts and that is exactly what they did.
|
||||
|
||||
*The Securities and Exchange Commission has stated that bona-fide market-making DOES NOT include activity that is related to speculative selling strategies for investment purposes of the broker-dealer and is disproportionate to the usual market making patterns or practices of the broker-dealer in that security. Likewise, where a market maker posts continually at or near the best offer, but does not also post at or near the best bid, the market maker's activities do not qualify as bona-fide market making. Moreover, a market maker that continually executes short sales away from its posted quotes is not considered to be engaged in bona-fide market making*
|
||||
|
||||
Ape talk -- The SEC has stated market-making can't be genuine if they're 'shorting away from its' posted quotes', missing bids from the buy side every now and then, whilst the sell side ALWAYS has something there, or diverts away from its' regular market making patterns. (Sound familiar?) *This is my interpretation. My knowledge on market making is little, so if anyone can add a better easy explanation, I'll be happy to add.*
|
||||
|
||||
So let's take a break here and recap.
|
||||
|
||||
MAXD are a company that were fully aware that they were being shorted (also naked) into the ground. They hired some experts in the field to take a look into the trading and market making activities for compliance. What they found was....
|
||||
|
||||
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
|
||||
|
||||
Did they comply?
|
||||
|
||||
*MAXD market makers have been monitored daily for compliance with Reg SHO and Fair Market-Making Requirements.* *Here is a trading analysis of MAXD.*
|
||||
|
||||
*BuyVol = real buyers at offer.*
|
||||
|
||||
*SellVol = real sellers at bid.*
|
||||
|
||||
*ShortVolume = short sale trade identifiers for both EXEMPT (market makers)*
|
||||
|
||||
*NON-EXEMPT (everyone else) shorts sales.*
|
||||
|
||||
*The short selling as a percentage of daily trading volume in MAXD by your firm is abnormally high; the market-making math related thereto does not reconcile and is not at all compliant with Federal Securities Laws***.**
|
||||
|
||||
*As is common during these orchestrated short selling campaigns, bad actors with no real interest in MAXD's success, or any small public company for that matter,* *has consistently engaged in false accusations and libel on the Company's stock chat boards in attempts to scare and demoralize MAXD's legitimate shareholders**. It is noteworthy that as soon as Max Sound sent this report to the market makers perpetrating the naked short sales on the company, the bad actors disappeared at least for the time being..*
|
||||
|
||||
Acknowledging the shills, reporting the shills and then telling the shorts that they know. I'm beginning to love these people more and more.
|
||||
|
||||
Recap -- The experts took a peek behind the curtain and did the math on the market making activity. They concluded that there was absolutely no way that they could be complying with federal securities law. They also found shills in their message boards and compiled a report highlighting all of this. This forced the shorts to back off for a small while.
|
||||
|
||||
__________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
|
||||
|
||||
The data
|
||||
|
||||
This is the thick of it. MAX-D just didn't publicly state all of this was happening. They posted clear numbers detailing how and WHO. *I'll continue to quote their statement and break it down further. Buckle up.*
|
||||
|
||||
*We have analyzed the last year of daily short volume data and correlated it to recent market making activity in MAXD.* *In 27 of the past 31 trading days, 87% of the time, the combined selling and short selling in MAXD has far exceeded the amount of buying (See NetNet column below).* *Market makers, by definition, are required to PROVIDE LIQUIDITY not extract or remove liquidity**. The math provided below demonstrates that instead of matching orders, market makers, Knight/Virtu, Cantor Fitzgerald, Canaccord Genuity, Citadel, eTrade/G1 are heavily shorting MAXD stock BOTH on the offer and on the bid, which by definition means they have a "speculative short selling strategy" running on MAXD. They are carrying net short positions overnight and continuing to claim the market maker's exemption, which is in VIOLATION of the Fair Market Making Requirements of Regulation SHO.* *We are able to mathematically prove this because there is not enough BuyVol (buy volume) to match the amount of selling and short selling. The chart below identifies the top 5 market makers, in MAXD for May 2018 (highlighted below) accounting for 2,257,870,595 shares of trading, or 88.22% of total trading volume in May.*
|
||||
|
||||
Ape talk/Recap -- There was lots and lots of short selling from many market makers. They continually claimed their exemption to naked short sell, which is a violation of regulation SHO. Better yet, they could mathematically prove it...
|
||||
|
||||
*Total Volume* *Name*
|
||||
|
||||
*(Last Month)*
|
||||
|
||||
*643,662,180* *Knight/Virtu,*
|
||||
|
||||
*154,447,100* *Cantor Fitzgerald,*
|
||||
|
||||
*203,762,081* *Canaccord Genuity,*
|
||||
|
||||
*769,731,954* *Citadel, - These fuckers yet again*
|
||||
|
||||
*247,276,817* *Trade/G1*
|
||||
|
||||
*Highlighting these Market Makers abusive activities in-concert with each other for just the one month of May, allows regulators, the SEC, FINRA, the U.S. Attorney as well as the media to easily identify the manipulative trading activity and counterfeiting of MAXD shares engaged in by their traders for the past year and well beyond. When overlaid for the entire year (back to June 1, 2017) the math is shocking. 8,117,878,650 total shares have been shorted representing in excess of 40% of MAXD's total trading volume and it demonstrates that these market makers have knowingly participated in manipulative trading practices and counterfeiting of MAXD shares.*
|
||||
|
||||
We provide the following data in this report:
|
||||
|
||||
DAILY TOTAL SHARES SHORTED (volume and price), which includes all shares shorted even by exempt institutions such as market makers.
|
||||
|
||||
FAILURES TO DELIVER (naked shorts).
|
||||
|
||||
MARKET MAKER SHARE VOLUME (exposing exactly how many shares are being traded and the name of the market making firm traded through).
|
||||
|
||||
MARKET MAKER DATA (showing whether or not a fair market is being made in each trading day).
|
||||
|
||||
CUMULATIVE TOTAL SHARES SHORTED data showing large short positions and the volume weighted average price that a short squeeze will start.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/xlb7iptlo1571.png?width=568&format=png&auto=webp&s=4f83254f4d02b5f4996ab05191a6937bc1cc1b73)
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/kdft08vmo1571.png?width=555&format=png&auto=webp&s=ec83f53d39b609f687ef86a37103320504121f3e)
|
||||
|
||||
Recap -- They proved mathematically that the game was rigged and that Kenny boy (Citadel) was the biggest culprit. The first image shows the potential squeeze value. The second image shows just how bad the market making activity was. Just look at that buy volume vs sell volume.
|
||||
|
||||
________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
|
||||
|
||||
The final comment
|
||||
|
||||
*MAXD is making this report available to the investment world to create a substantial short squeeze opportunity with the goal to return to its shareholders the massive amount of equity stolen by unscrupulous market makers.*
|
||||
|
||||
They openly advocated for people to invest to start a short squeeze. There was no hidden riddle. It was there in black and white.
|
||||
|
||||
TL;DR -- MAX-D are a company that were being shorted into the ground. Market makers were using their liquidity exemptions to naked short, further driving the price. MAX-D brought in the experts and found the market making activity was fraudulent and in breach of Federal securities law, as it was mathematically impossible they were doing everything 'by the book'.
|
||||
|
||||
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
|
||||
|
||||
Bonus round -- Citadel and the inadvertent 'mini bomb'
|
||||
|
||||
Let's look at the chart. Citadel were the biggest shorts for the company? Looks like Kenny had to cover some of them other shorts positions.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/b2sv9zxto1571.png?width=672&format=png&auto=webp&s=7e5bf6e1aecffc9b61ab9dcad35a16d87246a691)
|
252
DD/2021-06-16-T+35-is-the-One-True-Cycle.md
Normal file
252
DD/2021-06-16-T+35-is-the-One-True-Cycle.md
Normal file
@ -0,0 +1,252 @@
|
||||
T+35 is the one true "cycle" [Evidence to back my theory up plus a step-by-step guide on how to follow along at home]
|
||||
=====================================================================================================================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/dentisttft](https://www.reddit.com/user/dentisttft/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/o155a6/t35_is_the_one_true_cycle_evidence_to_back_my/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
[DD 👨🔬](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22DD%20%F0%9F%91%A8%E2%80%8D%F0%9F%94%AC%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||
*This post is for educational purposes only. Do your own research and make your own decisions before acting on them. Just because this information is correct now, doesn't mean it will be correct every other day. HFs have a lot of tricks. No one knows what will come next...*
|
||||
|
||||
EDIT10 (6/21): It is more clear to me now that ETF FTD's do not behave the same as the GME FTDs that I use as examples. The ETF FTDs are a work in progress. The ETF FTDs should be weighted as well. If you find a pattern in the ETF FTDs, I'm open to hearing it!
|
||||
|
||||
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
|
||||
|
||||
TL;DR:
|
||||
|
||||
- Every spike that is seen can be traced back to T+35.
|
||||
|
||||
- I show 1 min spikes to back this claim up
|
||||
|
||||
- I provide a guide on how to setup this data yourself.
|
||||
|
||||
Preface
|
||||
|
||||
Almost 2 weeks ago, I posted some DD about T+35.
|
||||
|
||||
[T+21 is NOT actually a thing! [Counter DD]](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nsady3/t21_is_not_actually_a_thing_counter_dd/)
|
||||
|
||||
I claim that T+35 is the only T+X that is important, and other T+X "cycles" are actually just from T+35. This concept goes against the general consensus, so as expected... I got mixed reviews. Since then I have seen a different T+X, T+Y, T+Z theory every day, but there is always a catch or some sort of guessing applied. Or the cycle is T+21 one month, but T+19 the other month. As you may imagine, this has gotten frustrating for me. There is no shade being thrown at other DD writers. I just want everyone to realize how simple this is so we can all be on the same page.
|
||||
|
||||
My T+35 theory doesn't have guess work. It works every time and it's based on free data that anyone can get. In this post, I will show you how. (I know this is starting to sound like an infomercial, but stick with me)
|
||||
|
||||
Where my T+35 theory comes from...
|
||||
|
||||
Reg SHO Rule 204 (<https://www.law.cornell.edu/cfr/text/17/242.204>) states HFs need to cover their FTDs "before regular trading hours on the 35th day after the FTD date". My T+35 theory shows they wait until the last possible day to cover, so the 34th day after the FTD date (this is why our third column formula was "=A1 + 34"). If the 34th day lands on a weekend or holiday, bump it forward to the next business day.
|
||||
|
||||
Reg SHO states that you cannot short a stock if you have FTDs open. Once the FTDs get covered on that day, GME's price will not return to that point.
|
||||
|
||||
That's it. That's all you need.
|
||||
|
||||
It's as simple as...
|
||||
|
||||
1. Get the FTD data
|
||||
|
||||
2. Count 34 calendar days (FTDs need to be covered BEFORE the 35th day)
|
||||
|
||||
3. Those FTDs will be bought all at once on that trading day.
|
||||
|
||||
Oh, you want to see an example?
|
||||
|
||||
Okay, sure.
|
||||
|
||||
I have picked out days from April because the FTDs are large and the volume was small. It is very easy to pick them out.
|
||||
|
||||
How about... April 21. 32,220 FTDs need to be covered. The day's volume was low, but there was a 1m volume spike at 12:23 EST of 39,000. GME's price never came back afterward.
|
||||
|
||||
[![r/Superstonk - T+35 is the one true "cycle" [Evidence to back my theory up plus a step-by-step guide on how to follow along at home]](https://preview.redd.it/c82wf7csqm571.png?width=451&format=png&auto=webp&s=ca4a553ffb37e4eb7ef574f3bdd7efc21bbcd413)](https://preview.redd.it/c82wf7csqm571.png?width=451&format=png&auto=webp&s=ca4a553ffb37e4eb7ef574f3bdd7efc21bbcd413)
|
||||
|
||||
[![r/Superstonk - T+35 is the one true "cycle" [Evidence to back my theory up plus a step-by-step guide on how to follow along at home]](https://preview.redd.it/stvi493tqm571.png?width=760&format=png&auto=webp&s=c63c88a3ef43b64a79c124bf49fc0aaff0057ec9)](https://preview.redd.it/stvi493tqm571.png?width=760&format=png&auto=webp&s=c63c88a3ef43b64a79c124bf49fc0aaff0057ec9)
|
||||
|
||||
April 19. 140,554 FTDs need to be covered. GME was rising quite fast on it's own. Remember, they can't short a stock when they have FTDs that need to be covered. So at 10:25 EST, There was a big jump in volume up to 160k and then the price dropped for the rest of the day.
|
||||
|
||||
[![r/Superstonk - T+35 is the one true "cycle" [Evidence to back my theory up plus a step-by-step guide on how to follow along at home]](https://preview.redd.it/lb5q8rbvqm571.png?width=449&format=png&auto=webp&s=6fa055c19c2cf90d9cd6c8bddd1c201c5d5d1543)](https://preview.redd.it/lb5q8rbvqm571.png?width=449&format=png&auto=webp&s=6fa055c19c2cf90d9cd6c8bddd1c201c5d5d1543)
|
||||
|
||||
[![r/Superstonk - T+35 is the one true "cycle" [Evidence to back my theory up plus a step-by-step guide on how to follow along at home]](https://preview.redd.it/px47llyvqm571.png?width=805&format=png&auto=webp&s=e344df65f5219edef1d3f7708357a728c5793130)](https://preview.redd.it/px47llyvqm571.png?width=805&format=png&auto=webp&s=e344df65f5219edef1d3f7708357a728c5793130)
|
||||
|
||||
You see? It's that easy!
|
||||
|
||||
Meh... this seems like a coincidence
|
||||
|
||||
Okay, fine... I'll keep going.
|
||||
|
||||
April 16 - 46,344 FTDs
|
||||
|
||||
[![r/Superstonk - T+35 is the one true "cycle" [Evidence to back my theory up plus a step-by-step guide on how to follow along at home]](https://preview.redd.it/cmrtpjd1rm571.png?width=449&format=png&auto=webp&s=feaf916cbd63dffe35c043ca34ffeebfb81ee19d)](https://preview.redd.it/cmrtpjd1rm571.png?width=449&format=png&auto=webp&s=feaf916cbd63dffe35c043ca34ffeebfb81ee19d)
|
||||
|
||||
[![r/Superstonk - T+35 is the one true "cycle" [Evidence to back my theory up plus a step-by-step guide on how to follow along at home]](https://preview.redd.it/3f8jcft1rm571.png?width=805&format=png&auto=webp&s=89bad926ace29cb36dfb23cfed018e78e642e653)](https://preview.redd.it/3f8jcft1rm571.png?width=805&format=png&auto=webp&s=89bad926ace29cb36dfb23cfed018e78e642e653)
|
||||
|
||||
April 15 - 155,658 FTDs
|
||||
|
||||
[![r/Superstonk - T+35 is the one true "cycle" [Evidence to back my theory up plus a step-by-step guide on how to follow along at home]](https://preview.redd.it/n75at1i4rm571.png?width=448&format=png&auto=webp&s=5b314710aa16ba499713776eccf36306c5826688)](https://preview.redd.it/n75at1i4rm571.png?width=448&format=png&auto=webp&s=5b314710aa16ba499713776eccf36306c5826688)
|
||||
|
||||
[![r/Superstonk - T+35 is the one true "cycle" [Evidence to back my theory up plus a step-by-step guide on how to follow along at home]](https://preview.redd.it/rjz3cpw4rm571.png?width=758&format=png&auto=webp&s=a027c39558f072760bb8c02bc2601580da764abc)](https://preview.redd.it/rjz3cpw4rm571.png?width=758&format=png&auto=webp&s=a027c39558f072760bb8c02bc2601580da764abc)
|
||||
|
||||
April 1 - Two days needed to be covered this day because 4/4 was a weekend. At 1:25, there was an 83k volume spike followed by a couple 100k-150k volume candles.
|
||||
|
||||
[![r/Superstonk - T+35 is the one true "cycle" [Evidence to back my theory up plus a step-by-step guide on how to follow along at home]](https://preview.redd.it/dtcgi377rm571.png?width=449&format=png&auto=webp&s=04879f53d128e51679420c3c9acd23be166d06dc)](https://preview.redd.it/dtcgi377rm571.png?width=449&format=png&auto=webp&s=04879f53d128e51679420c3c9acd23be166d06dc)
|
||||
|
||||
[![r/Superstonk - T+35 is the one true "cycle" [Evidence to back my theory up plus a step-by-step guide on how to follow along at home]](https://preview.redd.it/hjktf658rm571.png?width=763&format=png&auto=webp&s=eb96ccede1210db6c24950eeb0f689db122b6f99)](https://preview.redd.it/hjktf658rm571.png?width=763&format=png&auto=webp&s=eb96ccede1210db6c24950eeb0f689db122b6f99)
|
||||
|
||||
April 30 - 86,859 FTDs. This one got split between two minutes on my chart. The average 1m volume was between 30k-40k shares. And then there are two 70k-80k volume candles at 9:50-9:51 am.
|
||||
|
||||
[![r/Superstonk - T+35 is the one true "cycle" [Evidence to back my theory up plus a step-by-step guide on how to follow along at home]](https://preview.redd.it/vezj8zkarm571.png?width=453&format=png&auto=webp&s=06957bcdbaeeaa47ba59f34382e1811182c2b07a)](https://preview.redd.it/vezj8zkarm571.png?width=453&format=png&auto=webp&s=06957bcdbaeeaa47ba59f34382e1811182c2b07a)
|
||||
|
||||
[![r/Superstonk - T+35 is the one true "cycle" [Evidence to back my theory up plus a step-by-step guide on how to follow along at home]](https://preview.redd.it/fb1lqpyarm571.png?width=855&format=png&auto=webp&s=238276a529cc1e48c34e06e58e9bce7b3a817843)](https://preview.redd.it/fb1lqpyarm571.png?width=855&format=png&auto=webp&s=238276a529cc1e48c34e06e58e9bce7b3a817843)
|
||||
|
||||
I can keep going. These are the easy ones to spot *just* in April.
|
||||
|
||||
So what about ETF FTDs?
|
||||
|
||||
Days with large ETF FTDs also see spikes like this. But it doesn't convert well enough to show. For instance, 1.9 million ETF FTDs might convert to a 120,000 share GME spike. If someone wants to continue this research and find a way to convert the ETF FTD count into GME shares, go ahead.
|
||||
|
||||
Why do some days lead to large gains and some days drop immediately after the FTD cover?
|
||||
|
||||
I wrote about that in my last DD:
|
||||
|
||||
[SLD DD [A predictable monthly pinch on capital leading to GME gains]](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nz7mwl/sld_dd_a_predictable_monthly_pinch_on_capital/)
|
||||
|
||||
But here's what you need to know if you can't read two DDs in a row:
|
||||
|
||||
- There is a period that starts on Wednesday before monthly options expiration and extends to 9 days after monthly options expiration where the 30 largest financial companies need to make large deposits to the NSCC.
|
||||
|
||||
- During those days, they have less money and need to be careful not to spend more or they will get liquidity called.
|
||||
|
||||
- Meaning T+35's with large FTD days that fall in the SLD period will increase GME's price a lot more than large FTD days that fall out of the SLD period. Once the price of GME rises within the SLD period, it does not come back down until 2 days before the end of SLD.
|
||||
|
||||
I even mapped out the SLD periods:
|
||||
|
||||
[![r/Superstonk - T+35 is the one true "cycle" [Evidence to back my theory up plus a step-by-step guide on how to follow along at home]](https://preview.redd.it/ys4ovwzurm571.png?width=1246&format=png&auto=webp&s=16a4fcd208abfca25a479f87f5f54fc590b2af06)](https://preview.redd.it/ys4ovwzurm571.png?width=1246&format=png&auto=webp&s=16a4fcd208abfca25a479f87f5f54fc590b2af06)
|
||||
|
||||
March 5-10 is the biggest spike outside of SLD. Those can be associated with ETF FTDs.
|
||||
|
||||
[![r/Superstonk - T+35 is the one true "cycle" [Evidence to back my theory up plus a step-by-step guide on how to follow along at home]](https://preview.redd.it/enpanyhxrm571.png?width=448&format=png&auto=webp&s=3c9b8bb8bb070fe3283ecdb7874e7e94eb283339)](https://preview.redd.it/enpanyhxrm571.png?width=448&format=png&auto=webp&s=3c9b8bb8bb070fe3283ecdb7874e7e94eb283339)
|
||||
|
||||
How do I see this for myself?
|
||||
|
||||
Download the FTD data from the SEC: <https://www.sec.gov/data/foiadocsfailsdatahtm> and pull out every line with GME and every line of the ETFs GME are in. But that's a lot of work. Luckily, a lovely ape by the name of [u/nequin](https://www.reddit.com/u/nequin/) made a website to do this all for you.
|
||||
|
||||
Get the FTD data:
|
||||
|
||||
1. Go to <https://failedtodeliver.com/?symbols=GME>
|
||||
|
||||
2. Make a spreadsheet.
|
||||
|
||||
1. Column A is the FTD date.
|
||||
|
||||
2. Column B is "=A1+34" and fill down.
|
||||
|
||||
3. Column C is the number of GME FTDs
|
||||
|
||||
4. Column D is the number of ETF FTDs
|
||||
|
||||
ETFs with GME
|
||||
|
||||
<https://failedtodeliver.com/?symbols=GAMR,XRT,RETL,XSVM,VIOV,RWJ,VIOO,PSCD,VIOG,VTWV,IUSS,VCR,VTWO,SFYF,IWC,EWSC,SYLD,PRF,RALS,FNDX,FNDB,VBR,IJS,XJR,NUSC,SLYV,IJR,SPSM,SLY,FLQS,IJT,GSSC,SLYG,VXF,NVQ,IWN,ESML,VB,SAA,DMRS,BBSC,OMFS,FDIS,STSB,SSLY,IWM,SCHA,PBSM,UWM,VTHR,URTY,VTI,TILT,VLU,HDG,AVUS,MMTM,DSI,SPTM,IWV,SCHB,ITOT,DFAU>
|
||||
|
||||
EDIT 7: I posted my dataset for the people who want to compare. <https://www.reddit.com/user/dentisttft/comments/o1k5s4/t35_dataset/>
|
||||
|
||||
EDIT 9: There were some issues brought up in the data. But they shouldn't be issues. Trust the files or [failedtodeliver.com](https://failedtodeliver.com/), they are the same.
|
||||
|
||||
~~EDIT 6: IT HAS BEEN BROUGHT TO MY ATTENTION THAT THE WEBSITE IS OFF BY ONE DAY STARTING IN APRIL. PROBABLY BECAUSE OF THE HOLIDAY. I HAVE TAGGED THE PERSON WHO CREATED IT. SO MAKE SURE YOU DOUBLE CHECK SOME DAYS WITH THE FILES UNTIL ITS FIXED.~~
|
||||
|
||||
~~EDIT 8: APPARENTLY THE WEBSITE USES THE FILES, SO EDIT 6 IS NOT COMPLETELY CORRECT. THERE IS A DISCREPENCY BETWEEN THE FILES/FAILEDTODELIVER.COM AND THE SEC'S FTD GRAPH.~~ [~~https://sec.report/fails.php?tc=gme~~](https://sec.report/fails.php?tc=gme)
|
||||
|
||||
~~THE FILES SKIP APRIL 21 (WHICH IN MY OPINION MEANS ZERO) AND HAVE APRIL 30, THE GRAPH WEBSITE HAS APRIL 21 AND SKIPS APRIL 30. SO I THINK THE GRAPH WEBSITE MIGHT BE INCORRECT.~~
|
||||
|
||||
Important Notes:
|
||||
|
||||
- Column A is the settlement date when the share officially becomes an FTD.
|
||||
|
||||
- Column B is the last possible day to cover the FTD
|
||||
|
||||
Your spreadsheet looks like this...
|
||||
|
||||
[![r/Superstonk - T+35 is the one true "cycle" [Evidence to back my theory up plus a step-by-step guide on how to follow along at home]](https://preview.redd.it/ox473wz4sm571.png?width=451&format=png&auto=webp&s=0efc2bda56da1c16e3ab3ea4887db568cdbf43b8)](https://preview.redd.it/ox473wz4sm571.png?width=451&format=png&auto=webp&s=0efc2bda56da1c16e3ab3ea4887db568cdbf43b8)
|
||||
|
||||
Now what?
|
||||
|
||||
1. Google search "what is today's date"
|
||||
|
||||
2. Find that date in column 2 (the +34 day)
|
||||
|
||||
3. Follow this flow chart.
|
||||
|
||||
[![r/Superstonk - T+35 is the one true "cycle" [Evidence to back my theory up plus a step-by-step guide on how to follow along at home]](https://preview.redd.it/4ag11hd7sm571.png?width=292&format=png&auto=webp&s=7fc674526dbcd541c60490e9661581559fadade3)](https://preview.redd.it/4ag11hd7sm571.png?width=292&format=png&auto=webp&s=7fc674526dbcd541c60490e9661581559fadade3)
|
||||
|
||||
In my experience, a "large number of FTDs" is 70,000+ for GME FTDs or 1-1.5 million FTDs for ETFs.
|
||||
|
||||
Again, this is not guaranteed. This is just based on patterns I've seen. There are plenty of tricks that probably have not been shown. Don't do something stupid based on this data, its for education purposes only.
|
||||
|
||||
Should my tits be jacked!?
|
||||
|
||||
Here's the new data for this next week... Use your new knowledge from this post and you decide!
|
||||
|
||||
[![r/Superstonk - T+35 is the one true "cycle" [Evidence to back my theory up plus a step-by-step guide on how to follow along at home]](https://preview.redd.it/6a5dvr1jxn571.png?width=597&format=png&auto=webp&s=cc76d854e680a88d218b11774b70e0b805276687)](https://preview.redd.it/6a5dvr1jxn571.png?width=597&format=png&auto=webp&s=cc76d854e680a88d218b11774b70e0b805276687)
|
||||
|
||||
EDIT5: Fixed the hightlighted section. Accidentally had June 15th in there when it shouldn't be.
|
||||
|
||||
FAQ
|
||||
|
||||
New FTD data just came out yesterday. So what about June?
|
||||
|
||||
The ETF FTDs are quite large for the next 5-7 trading days. Combine that with SLD starting on June 16 ~~17~~, things look good.
|
||||
|
||||
EDIT5: Accidentally had the wrong date typed here and the wrong dates highlighted in the photo.
|
||||
|
||||
Why do the last two days of SLD not behave the same as the other days?
|
||||
|
||||
Not sure. My guess is that HFs have 2 days to pay a liquidity call. So there's no point in liquidity calling them when they are about to get their money back. It also usually is at the end of the week when option premiums get extremely high, less calls are bought, and gamma ramp slows down.
|
||||
|
||||
How long does it take before GME/ETFs show up as FTDs?
|
||||
|
||||
They become FTDs when the trade settles. So for GME FTDs, its T+2. For ETF's, its T+6. (shoutout to [u/karasuuchiha](https://www.reddit.com/u/karasuuchiha/) for pointing out the ETF settlement time to me)
|
||||
|
||||
What causes GME FTDs?
|
||||
|
||||
This is where the idea of "cycles" comes from. When FTDs fall in SLD and GME spikes, it creates a lot of ITM call options. When those call options are exercised on Friday, they become FTDs upon settling (T+2 settlement). *Note: Buying and selling option contracts settle in T+1, but exercising contracts is T+2*. This causes a lot of new FTDs that need to be covered in 34 more days. Thus creating an obsession with "cycles" and why other "T+X cycle" theories fall short. It's literally just ITM options from the last SLD + FTD spike price increase will create new FTDs on Tuesday (or Wednesday with a holiday).
|
||||
|
||||
What causes ETF FTDs?
|
||||
|
||||
SSR!!! Remember all those days when SSR didn't stop GME from going down? It's because GME is shorted through the ETFs causing ETF FTDs 6 days later when they settle. It did something, it's just not immediately seen.
|
||||
|
||||
I'm still not buying it. There are definitely spikes every 21 days!
|
||||
|
||||
Well, I tried. Erase what you know about T+21 cycles and try to understand and apply this post. And maybe you will eventually see what I see.
|
||||
|
||||
What about Net Capital?
|
||||
|
||||
I don't know. I avoid FINRA things because in the end... it's just FINRA. This is based off of NSCC rules. I've found enough correlation in only using FTDs and SLD that I didn't think I needed to look into Net Capital too much. They could definitely both be happening, but in the end, I don't think it's too important. I'm open to someone changing my mind on this if you can show me the data (not the rules) to support that Net Capital has more correlation than SLD.
|
||||
|
||||
What else should I know?
|
||||
|
||||
Rule 204 says the 35 day exception applies when you have a long position on the stock. If they're shorting, how do they get to say they have a long position? I have a theory, but nothing concrete.
|
||||
|
||||
TL;DR: The TL;DR is at the top of the post you sweet, tender, smooth-brained ape.
|
||||
|
||||
Now that I have more eyes on my posts, I'm hoping this theory sticks better than the first time. In my opinion, getting distracted on other types of cycles is diluting focus.
|
||||
|
||||
pce~~
|
||||
|
||||
[u/dentisttft](https://www.reddit.com/u/dentisttft/)
|
||||
|
||||
----------------------------------------
|
||||
|
||||
Shoutout to [u/wJFq6aE7-zv44wa__gHq](https://www.reddit.com/u/wJFq6aE7-zv44wa__gHq/) for letting me bounce ideas off of them!
|
||||
|
||||
EDIT1-3: formatting fixes
|
||||
|
||||
EDIT4: Added "Should my tits be jacked!?" section
|
||||
|
||||
EDIT5: Fixed the dates on my new section. I rushed it and highlighted June 15 on accident.
|
||||
|
||||
Bonus Round!
|
||||
|
||||
I posted my SLD DD on June 13th at 6:23 PM EST. 6 hours later at 12:02, Elon Musk posted this on Twitter.
|
||||
|
||||
[![r/Superstonk - T+35 is the one true "cycle" [Evidence to back my theory up plus a step-by-step guide on how to follow along at home]](https://preview.redd.it/83o4bvpgsm571.png?width=616&format=png&auto=webp&s=4527094e5aa1d136adabc4dd554778ac29b5590c)](https://preview.redd.it/83o4bvpgsm571.png?width=616&format=png&auto=webp&s=4527094e5aa1d136adabc4dd554778ac29b5590c)
|
||||
|
||||
Is it about my DD? No idea, probably not. But it's fun to think about. If any of the RC Tweet analyzers can find a definite connection, that would make my day.
|
22
DD/2021-06-21-Friendly-Reminder-that-Shorts-Never-Covered.md
Normal file
22
DD/2021-06-21-Friendly-Reminder-that-Shorts-Never-Covered.md
Normal file
@ -0,0 +1,22 @@
|
||||
A friendly reminder that shorts never covered: 3 images that clearly reveal the short fuckery 🚨📈🚀🚀🚀🚀
|
||||
==========================================================================================================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/broccaaa](https://www.reddit.com/user/broccaaa/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/o4ps1c/a_friendly_reminder_that_shorts_never_covered_3/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
[Education 👨🏫 | Data 🔢](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22Education%20%F0%9F%91%A8%E2%80%8D%F0%9F%8F%AB%20%7C%20Data%20%F0%9F%94%A2%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||

|
||||
|
||||
[Source](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/mvdgf5/the_naked_shorting_scam_in_numbers_ai_detection/)
|
||||
|
||||

|
||||
|
||||
[Source](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/mvdgf5/the_naked_shorting_scam_in_numbers_ai_detection/)
|
||||
|
||||

|
||||
|
||||
[Source](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/n1vgbb/the_naked_shorting_scam_using_etfs_mass_shifting/)
|
Some files were not shown because too many files have changed in this diff Show More
Reference in New Issue
Block a user