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@ -0,0 +1,34 @@
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Cost basis and trade price issues
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=================================
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| Author | Source |
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||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
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||||
| [u/dlauer](https://www.reddit.com/user/dlauer/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nhtt04/cost_basis_and_trade_price_issues/) |
|
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|
||||
---
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||||
|
||||
[Education 👨🏫 | Data 🔢](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22Education%20%F0%9F%91%A8%E2%80%8D%F0%9F%8F%AB%20%7C%20Data%20%F0%9F%94%A2%22&restrict_sr=1)
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Hi everyone,
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There have been a lot of posts recently on these two subjects - crazy cost basis reports when transferring out of Robinhood, and some anecdotal reports (or maybe just a single report?) about some fractional share executions outside of the NBBO. I've made some comments on those threads but I thought it might be helpful to put everything together in one place.
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First, I don't mean to throw cold water on these theories all the time, or to constantly be talking about technical glitches. But I have seen how many of these systems work, and it's also common sense to think about incentives - firms invest in technology that makes them money (like trading), and they don't invest in technology for cost centers (like record keeping and compliance). Front office trading systems are sophisticated and high-performance. Back office record keeping systems are often ancient, and always under-invested in. This is especially true when regulatory fines are little more than a cost of doing business / slap on the wrist.
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If you want to see this in action, just go to [FINRA BrokerCheck](https://brokercheck.finra.org/) and search for a broker. As I explained in another comment: " Lookup a broker and start looking at their violations (I've done this systematically in the past when evaluating broker dark pool enforcement action risk for institutional asset managers). It's a constant stream of OATS violations (the Order Audit Trail System is a record of all orders and trades that a broker reports to FINRA, being replaced by the CAT), order marking violations, failure to produce trade records, mistakes with order flag records, etc. A constant stream of technology problems. I even [presented](https://www.sec.gov/comments/4-652/4652-32.pdf) to the SEC on this after the Knight Capital incident 9 years ago." This is not meant, in any way, to excuse the behavior. Record keeping mistakes should honestly be criminal - without accurate records, regulators can't do their jobs. So under-investment in compliance and record keeping systems makes sense in both ways for these firms - the fines are paltry, and if they're trying to avoid detection, shitty record quality is a feature, not a bug.
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Now, all of that being said - for those of you who have gotten these insane cost bases when transferring out of Robinhood - [file a whistleblower complaint](https://www.sec.gov/whistleblower). Seriously, this is your best course of action. If there is, in fact, a systematic problem with Robinhood back office systems, and the SEC goes in and fines them, you could get a cut of that. You might think it's just GME, but it's very likely that it affects other stocks too. And keep good records of your trades for filing taxes so that these mistakes by RH don't affect you.
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Next, on the topic - I have no idea why you're seeing insane fractional share cost bases when transferring, especially when you didn't buy fractional shares. I have no good explanation for it. My assumption is that it's a result of under-investment in back office technology. I can't possibly see how it is a reflection of any actual trading though. Keep in mind that these are tax records - they are not trade reports. There's a big difference. And even though these records appear to be all messed up, it doesn't really mean that any trades were executed at that price. For those of you who did transact in fractional shares, you have to also know that there is very little regulation around fractional shares. Fractions are not reported to the tape/market, and while firms are under a best execution obligation, that obligation is hardly enforced at all. So most of the rules I talk about are kind of thrown out the door when dealing with fractional shares, because they are not really considered within the current regulatory structure. I would also caution that any fractional shares traded outside of regular trading hours (9:30am ET - 4pm ET) can likely trade at any price, and I would never execute a trade like that.
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Ok, finally let's talk about the NBBO and tradethroughs. As I've explained before, the National Best Bid and Offer is the best price in the market, and is protected during regular trading hours. This means that brokers, off-exchange trading systems, and exchanges have safeguards in place to ensure that trades are not executed outside the NBBO. This system is not perfect. A while back there was an effort to have more disclosure for retail brokers and internalizers by the FIF. That has mostly stopped since the new Rule 606 was passed, but I found that Fidelity is [still disclosing](https://www.fidelity.com/bin-public/060_www_fidelity_com/documents/FIF-FBS-retail-execution-quality-stats.pdf) these extra stats. You can see that for most orders, 98% - 99% of the shares get executed at or better than the NBBO:
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[](https://preview.redd.it/dxc1kgm6eh071.png?width=744&format=png&auto=webp&s=ec0406b878fc475b756bc9328618b6c9f8142940)
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Why isn't it 100%? Generally speaking, it's because there aren't enough shares available at that price. If there's only 100 shares on the best offer, and you want to buy 200 shares, you're not guaranteed to get them all executed at the offer (although wholesalers like Citadel talk a lot about size improvement along with price improvement, but that's an entirely different conversation about how they goose and manipulate those metrics). Citadel stopped providing these reports in 2019, but you can see that back then [theirs looked similar](https://s3.amazonaws.com/citadel-wordpress-prd101/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2016/09/09175131/FIF-Rule-605-606-WG-CitadelSecurities_Retail-Execution-Quality-Stats_Q1_2019.pdf).
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Now, I cannot speak to anecdotes - I can only deal with data. I know there are claims about some crazy execution prices out there. I can assure you that these are not systematic issues, but it's always possible that there are crazy trades. That's why FINRA and the exchanges have [Clearly Erroneous rules](https://www.finra.org/rules-guidance/rulebooks/finra-rules/11892). This rule would not exist if it wasn't needed, and when I traded we had to invoke it at times. Sometimes crazy trades happen. When they do, alerts go off, and you get them busted. Remember that for every trade there's someone on the other side of it, and if you got to sell some GME at $2600, that means someone is on the hook to pay that. That person would be incentivized to have that trade busted, and has recourse to do so.
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Ok, finally some have questioned why I generally assume Hanlon's Razor - don't ascribe to malice that which can be explained by incompetence. I'm not as quick to accuse anyone of criminality as others. I'm comfortable with that. I'm a scientist, and I need to see data. When I see it, and it's convincing, then I'm comfortable making serious accusations. If that's naive, I'm ok with that. It doesn't make me fight any less to improve markets, and to improve transparency and access to data, so that we can have informed conversations and debates. And as you'll see in an article I have coming out soon, it doesn't make me hesitant to fight Big Tech when there's a serious fight to be had (you have to keep in mind that most of my day job is focused on tech and AI these days). But it does drive me to wait on convincing data before making such accusations. That's my style, and it's not for everyone.
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I hope this is helpful. I'll keep trying to answer questions when I can. Market structure is extremely complex, and even when trying to explain it, it's tough to distill it into something understandable when you haven't been immersed in it.
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@ -0,0 +1,82 @@
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MARGIN CALL VS. FORCED LIQUIDATION
|
||||
==================================
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||||
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||||
| Author | Source |
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||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/Dwellerofthecrags](https://www.reddit.com/user/Dwellerofthecrags/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/ni0xmw/margin_call_vs_forced_liquidation/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
[Education 👨🏫 | Data 🔢](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22Education%20%F0%9F%91%A8%E2%80%8D%F0%9F%8F%AB%20%7C%20Data%20%F0%9F%94%A2%22&restrict_sr=1)
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Over the past several weeks I've noticed several posts or comments that lead me to believe there may be a bit of a misunderstanding about what a MARGIN CALL is. Because I love all of my fellow HODLers, I am not going to single out any of the posts or comments.
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||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/x6wbwddgzi071.jpg?width=800&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=b65d44ff3b998ee4f2dcd65212a83312771ac210)
|
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https://pbs.twimg.com/media/ERNu7C-W4AAleb4.jpg
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I know that I, like many of you, have added a bunch a wrinkles since January thanks to many of the brilliant Apes writing DD and the Silverbacks coming and doing AMAs and I'm hoping that you, like me, never get tired of adding more. Since there seems to be a little bit of a misunderstanding about what a margin call actually is, I thought it would be good to provide some clarification and add a few more wrinkles to all of our smooth brains.
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Also, if you're looking for a way to pass the time while waiting for the MOASS, I suggest reading through <https://www.investopedia.com/>. There's seriously a ton of ELIA information about investing and the market. This is of course after you catch-up on any of the [AMAs](https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCI4EET9NJPWxUuXGlG6fxPA), [Dr. T's book](https://www.amazon.com/Naked-Short-Greedy-Streets-Failure-ebook/dp/B08XXXRH7T/ref=tmm_kin_swatch_0?_encoding=UTF8&qid=&sr=), and the essential market related movies (MARGIN CALL, The Big Short, The Wall Street Conspiracy, Boiler Room, Wolf of Wall Street, etc.)
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Now for what you came here for:
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What is a margin call?
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Generic definition: ["A margin call is a request for additional collateral when a trader's position or investment drops in value."](https://qz.com/1991073/how-many-funds-are-a-margin-call-away-from-failing-like-archegos/)
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This is more of a description of how it works between a retail investor and broker but the principle is the same:
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["A margin call occurs when the value of a margin account falls below the account's maintenance margin requirement. It is a demand by a brokerage firm (lender/Bank) to bring the margin account's balance up to the minimum maintenance margin requirement. To satisfy a margin call, the investor (Borrower/Hedge Fund/Institution) of the margin account must either deposit additional funds, deposit unmargined securities, or sell (close) current positions."](https://corporatefinanceinstitute.com/resources/knowledge/trading-investing/margin-call/)
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More in depth description about what a margin call is here: <https://www.investopedia.com/terms/m/margincall.asp>
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TL;DR: A margin call is the notice that a borrower's collateral has become inadequate for their current investment position. They must either deposit more collateral or close a portion of their "at risk" positions. It is not a forced closeout. A forced closeout is what happens if the borrower is unable to satisfy the margin call. As long as a borrower is continually able to satisfy the requirements of the margin call(s), they are able to keep their position.
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> *SPECULATION: This explains why we are seeing so many "Pump & Dumps" of securities that Citadel & Friends have positions in. They're printing money off of these other SCAMS in order to satisfy the margin requirements for the positions they currently hold while they string them out to try to slowly unwind them over time.*
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DO NOT DAY TRADE GME! DO NOT FALL FOR ANY OF THESE OTHER PUMPED SECURITIES/CRYPTO! DON'T FEED THE BEARS, THEY'LL EAT YOU!
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[](https://preview.redd.it/msscs7u5ij071.jpg?width=960&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=0b0bc230858c6cce5120bc04910073938c0d0528)
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https://i.redd.it/9llkyh6lvo141.jpg
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[What is Forced Liquidation?](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/f/forcedliquidation.asp)
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Basic Definition:
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"Forced selling or forced liquidation usually entails the involuntary sale of assets or securities to create liquidity in the event of an uncontrollable or unforeseen situation."
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"Within the investing world, if a margin call is issued and the investor is unable to bring their investment up to the minimum requirements, the broker has the right to sell off the positions."
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THIS IS THE SPECIFIC TYPE OF LIQUIDATION WE ARE WAITING FOR:
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"The opposite of forced selling in a margin account is a forced buy-in. This occurs in a short seller's account when the original lender of the shares recalls them or when the broker is no longer able to borrow shares for the shorted position. When a forced buy-in is triggered, shares are bought back to close the short position. The account holder might not be given notice prior to the act."
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[](https://preview.redd.it/k7xbxtn60j071.jpg?width=500&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=39079ad5c8e5f5054c711212c0045fa5ba28b747)
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https://news.ewingirrigation.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/MISC-Ice-Melting1.jpg
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TL;DR: Margin Calls are merely steps towards what we really want...a forced buy-in! As long as the shorts continue to meet margin requirements, they will be able to continue to kick the can down the road. A price spike that pushes them beyond their ability to meet the margin requirements, a massive depreciation of their other positions, or regulatory action is needed to trigger the forced selling.
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This is the way to MOASS:
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1. BUY & HODL GME
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2. STOP BUYING OTHER GIMICKS/DAY-TRADING/ETC. (Don't feed the bears)
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3. WAIT PATIENTLY FOR FORCED BUY-IN, MARGIN CALLS ARE JUST STEPS TOWARDS THAT END. WHEN SHORTS CAN NO LONGER MEET THE CALL...
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🚀🚀 🚀🚀 🚀🚀 🚀🚀
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*Let me know if I missed anything...*
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Edit: added #DontFeedTheBears
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Edit 2: [u/InvincibearREAL](https://www.reddit.com/u/InvincibearREAL/) pointed out that I forgot to include the most obvious movie to be watched (especially considering the post topic): Margin Call ... so I added it to the list
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Edit 3: The best TL;DR in ape language courtesy of [u/cryptocached](https://www.reddit.com/u/cryptocached/)
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"Margin call is a shart. It stinks and can be a little messy, but it's really just a warning. If you don't heed that warning and take care of your business in a timely fashion, you'll shit your pants in a forced liquidation."
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Edit 4: Created [visual TL;DR Post](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/ni9oc1/margin_call_vs_forced_liquidation_in_ape_ape/)
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Explain w/ Crayons Series: What is Naked Shorting? Indicators GME is Being Naked Short
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||||
======================================================================================
|
||||
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||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/AaronJamesArq](https://www.reddit.com/user/AaronJamesArq/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nk40b6/explain_w_crayons_series_what_is_naked_shorting/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
[Discussion 🦍](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22Discussion%20%F0%9F%A6%8D%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
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🖍 Explain w/ Crayons Series: Fundamentals of $GME! Why $GME Should Be Trading Higher
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||||
=====================================================================================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/AaronJamesArq](https://www.reddit.com/user/AaronJamesArq/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nkouqs/explain_w_crayons_series_fundamentals_of_gme_why/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
[Education 👨🏫 | Data 🔢](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22Education%20%F0%9F%91%A8%E2%80%8D%F0%9F%8F%AB%20%7C%20Data%20%F0%9F%94%A2%22&restrict_sr=1)
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Crayon Explanation 💬🖍 GME and NFTs: Bullish Thesis + Possible Catalyst for MOASS
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||||
==================================================================================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/AaronJamesArq](https://www.reddit.com/user/AaronJamesArq/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nlgnnj/crayon_explanation_gme_and_nfts_bullish_thesis/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
[Education 👨🏫 | Data 🔢](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22Education%20%F0%9F%91%A8%E2%80%8D%F0%9F%8F%AB%20%7C%20Data%20%F0%9F%94%A2%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
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|
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||||

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@ -0,0 +1,36 @@
|
||||
Crayon Explanation 💬🖍 Exit Strategy Vocabulary Refresher Lesson For Apes
|
||||
==========================================================================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/AaronJamesArq](https://www.reddit.com/user/AaronJamesArq/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nm5jvp/crayon_explanation_exit_strategy_vocabulary/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
[Education 👨🏫 | Data 🔢](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22Education%20%F0%9F%91%A8%E2%80%8D%F0%9F%8F%AB%20%7C%20Data%20%F0%9F%94%A2%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||

|
||||
|
||||

|
||||
|
||||

|
||||
|
||||

|
||||
|
||||

|
||||
|
||||

|
||||
|
||||

|
||||
|
||||

|
||||
|
||||

|
||||
|
||||

|
||||
|
||||

|
||||
|
||||

|
||||
|
||||

|
267
01-Must-Read/2021-05-23-We-Are-All-Fucked.md
Normal file
267
01-Must-Read/2021-05-23-We-Are-All-Fucked.md
Normal file
@ -0,0 +1,267 @@
|
||||
We're All Fucked
|
||||
================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/CoffeeLaxative](https://www.reddit.com/user/CoffeeLaxative/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nj1guf/were_all_fucked/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
[Education 👨🏫 | Data 🔢](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22Education%20%F0%9F%91%A8%E2%80%8D%F0%9F%8F%AB%20%7C%20Data%20%F0%9F%94%A2%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||
I have no background in macroeconomics. In fact, I'm in healthcare. However, this is what I've gathered in all of my 3 months of investing, learning more about econ and finance than my own field. You tell me what you think and where we stand. The title of my post... pretty much sums up my thoughts. If I made any mistakes, please let me know. After all, I'm a smooth 🧠.
|
||||
|
||||
1\. S&P 500 inflation-adjusted earnings yield 🔥
|
||||
|
||||
You may have seen this picture from this [post](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/niem73/sp_500_inflationadjusted_earnings_yield_falls/). It's the S&P 500 inflation-adjusted earnings yield that's now falling below zero, setting a 40-year low. The last times it fell below 0 were in 2008 (housing bubble), 2000 (dotcom bubble), 1987 (Black Monday), 1973 (recession). And it's going under again. Here's [another post about it, with Crescat Capital's letter.](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nil0ww/sp_500_negative_yield_crescat_capital_letter_may/) Essentially, impending boom ?
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/jgvo3ctrpb171.png?width=721&format=png&auto=webp&s=6417c2f97f4dbbdfb4c114fff9abfa1b0fe034f8)
|
||||
|
||||
2\. The Repo Market 💣
|
||||
|
||||
It's been all the talk lately. Lately, the Fed has been conducting reverse repo operations at higher and higher amounts. On May 20th, we hit the 5th highest ever with $351B and 48 participating counterparties.
|
||||
|
||||
Then on May 21st, reverse repos reached $369B with 52 participants! Compare this to two weeks ago where we had less than half that amount, $155B on May 6th. Here's a chart showing reverse repos from January til today. Notice the exponential increase ? Ya, shit is fucked.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/cf707nbxpb171.png?width=793&format=png&auto=webp&s=a804fd59f761970edd40cf1a76b2ca4e8fb5ac65)
|
||||
|
||||
Data from: <https://apps.newyorkfed.org/markets/autorates/temp>
|
||||
|
||||
Edit: 05/25: reverse repo @ $432.96 billion.
|
||||
|
||||
If you are not familiar with the repo market, I recommend reading this: [The Imminent Liquidity Crisis & Reverse Repos Usage](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nhepn1/the_imminent_liquidity_crisis_reverse_repos_usage/) or watching George Gammon's YouTube video (Repo Market Rates Turn Negative).
|
||||
|
||||
Wat mean? Means there is too much cash in the system and not enough collateral (like treasury bonds). It means there's an imbalance between dollars (which are essentially IOUs) and whatever is backing the dollar's worth.
|
||||
|
||||
Why imbalance ?
|
||||
|
||||
- Quantitative easing (money printer go BRRRR)
|
||||
|
||||
- Rehypothecation (the same treasury bond being lent to A for 10k, who lent it to B for 10k, who lent it to C for 10k, ... but there is only 1 treasury bond and now 30k was lent.)
|
||||
|
||||
- Probably more reasons
|
||||
|
||||
So now, nobody wants $ (except you and I) and all of these institutions want treasury bonds. And as of May 21, treasury bonds have a negative interest rate! Source: <https://www.dtcc.com/charts/dtcc-gcf-repo-index>
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/fbzehm75rb171.png?width=474&format=png&auto=webp&s=860034b8555e891462abedd4753be32043dfece4)
|
||||
|
||||
U. S. Treasury < 30-year maturity (371487AE9).
|
||||
|
||||
In other words, banks and institutions want these treasury bonds so bad, they're ready to pay (lend) what it's worth and pay some more cash to get their hands on it.
|
||||
|
||||
3\. Crypto Correction / Crash ⚡
|
||||
|
||||
The crypto market dropped $1 trillion in the past 2 weeks ($700 billion last week and ~$300 billion the week before if I got my facts right). The leading coin went from ~$59k to ~$30k and all other coins followed.
|
||||
|
||||
So there's a LOT of differing opinions on this matter, on why it happened... Elon Musk, China, etc. Let's agree that it was probably a combination of everything. It also seems that the leading coin followed a textbook Wyckoff distribution, essentially a method to fleece retail investors (yet again!).
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/hynaaywmrb171.png?width=1759&format=png&auto=webp&s=d70c230eed55df463d46d74b763ae978fe064896)
|
||||
|
||||
Huge volume spike on May 19th. Very sus
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/kmksmruzrb171.png?width=738&format=png&auto=webp&s=3ce95a840845a0178cd303acf4acef3b938192bc)
|
||||
|
||||
The sell off occurred mostly between 8:50 - 8:55 AM EST and continued til 9:10 AM on May 19th.
|
||||
|
||||
What happened on May 19th ? Oh, right! OCC had previously issued a letter to members notifying them of temporary increase in deposits for clearing fund size totaling [$588M due at 9:00 AM on 5/19/2021](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nftyg4/occ_has_issued_a_statement_to_all_clearing/). So, let's all agree the crash was caused by a combination of everything.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/n8lb7266sb171.png?width=1048&format=png&auto=webp&s=d2400092f719b7759f880782309592d56db1f66f)
|
||||
|
||||
Many coins were affected 6 days ago. Screenshot by u/incandescent-leaf
|
||||
|
||||
Edit:
|
||||
|
||||
- Here's an interesting DD that could shed some light on these crypto whales: <https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nkde38/bitcoin_address_activity_appear_to_mirror_gme/>
|
||||
|
||||
- It's also interesting how Goldman Sachs now considers the leading coin as an asset class. The timing is what's most intriguing. Last weekend, crypto had another big sell off. <https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bitcoin-is-officially-a-new-asset-class-goldman-sachs-103540636.html>
|
||||
|
||||
4\. Commercial mortgage backed securities (CMBS) 🏬
|
||||
|
||||
According to Fitch Ratings, US CMBS delinquencies ticked up in April for the first time since October 2020, mostly from hotels and regional malls.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/9uq512i9sb171.png?width=991&format=png&auto=webp&s=eda234c027d79eb6d1318e5036dde2b2aa7f1538)
|
||||
|
||||
Source: <https://www.fitchratings.com/research/structured-finance/us-cmbs-delinquencies-tick-up-in-april-for-first-time-since-october-2020-07-05-2021>
|
||||
|
||||
I don't know about you, but this suuure reminds me of something... and this don't look good.
|
||||
|
||||
🚀🚀 Edit 🚀🚀
|
||||
|
||||
*Thank you to* [u/Due-Mountain-9044](https://www.reddit.com/u/Due-Mountain-9044/) *for this:*
|
||||
|
||||
In his interview and in his new article, Ryan Grim calls CMBS a BIGGER problem than the 2008 housing crisis:
|
||||
|
||||
- Article: <https://theintercept.com/2021/04/20/wall-street-cmbs-dollar-general-ladder-capital/>
|
||||
|
||||
- YouTube: <https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pRHwhvUc54A>
|
||||
|
||||
- Podcast: <https://theintercept.com/2021/04/23/deconstructed-whistleblower-financial-crisis/>
|
||||
|
||||
4.1 Mortgages 🏠
|
||||
|
||||
*Thank you to* [u/plasticbiner](https://www.reddit.com/u/plasticbiner/) *for also pointing this out:*
|
||||
|
||||
New Report From Consumer Financial Protection Bureau Finds Over 11 Million Families At Risk Of Losing Housing (March 1, 2021)
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/jvx7x1an3b171.png?width=1015&format=png&auto=webp&s=1574c782f2610c6712f6605be9bc02cade2d0bd9)
|
||||
|
||||
Source: https://www.consumerfinance.gov/about-us/newsroom/new-report-from-consumer-financial-protection-bureau-finds-over-11-million-families-at-risk-of-losing-housing/
|
||||
|
||||
🚀🚀End of edit 🚀🚀
|
||||
|
||||
5\. Banks, hedge funds, and the Fed working 24/7 🏦
|
||||
|
||||
We've seen the night pics and enjoyed them. Quite the norm nowadays, but quite unusual still.
|
||||
|
||||
<https://preview.redd.it/tw0ubnrays071.png?width=1902&format=png&auto=webp&s=f7fae2895a00a4292eb6c22b3cf92fbbb9d6cccb>
|
||||
|
||||
But wait! There's more. Not only do they have to deal with the stock market, the repo market, CMBS, paying their employees for overtime... they're also losing money with fines.
|
||||
|
||||
- UBS, Nomura fined $452 million by the EU. Bank of America, Credit Suisse Group AG and Credit Agricole were fined about 28.5 million euros last month. Source: <https://finance.yahoo.com/news/ubs-nomura-unicredit-fined-452-100701721.html>
|
||||
|
||||
- Since January 2021 up until today, the SEC has awarded ~$163.2 million to whistleblowers. Whistleblowers get 10-30% of the money collected, which means someone is bleeding from $544 million to $1.632B.
|
||||
|
||||
- And then the petty fines by the SEC that I won't list. Chump change for them.
|
||||
|
||||
There's also weird or bad news every week :
|
||||
|
||||
- The European Bank Issues Financial Stability Warning. [Reddit post on this](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nh913m/the_european_bank_issues_financial_stability/)
|
||||
|
||||
- In Mexico, [BBVA closes 867 branches and 1 million credit cards.](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nhgrt5/closing_867_bank_branches_and_a_million_credit/) In Spain, they closed 530 branches.
|
||||
|
||||
- Banks are planning on launching a pilot program where they will issue credit cards to people with no credit scores: <https://www.wsj.com/articles/jpmorgan-others-plan-to-issue-credit-cards-to-people-with-no-credit-scores-11620898206>
|
||||
|
||||
- Not to mention the margin calls already happening on [Wall Street as reported by European financial news](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nb9pon/european_financial_news_is_reporting_major_margin/)
|
||||
|
||||
- Much more... won't dig further. It's 1:30 am lol
|
||||
|
||||
🚀🚀 Edit 🚀🚀 I'm back at it 3 days later
|
||||
|
||||
Here are a few more articles to make you go "Hmmmm 🤔"
|
||||
|
||||
- Right after supposedly great earnings, Morgan Stanley sells $6 billion worth of bonds, following JP Morgan which sold $13 billion of bonds. Goldman Sachs also issued $6 billion of bonds. Source: <https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/morgan-stanley-joins-bank-bond-bonanza-with-three-part-sale-1.1592121>
|
||||
|
||||
- Over-leveraged Archegos Capital Management cost Credit Suisse $4.7+ billion in losses. Morgan Stanley dumped $5 billion in shares in Archegos' stocks before fire sale. Nomura losses could be as much as $2 billion. Source: <https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/06/morgan-stanley-dumped-5-billion-in-archegos-stocks-before-fire-sale.html> and <https://www.cnn.com/2021/03/29/investing/wall-street-hedge-fund-archegos/index.html>. Keep in mind Archegos was just a small family firm. How many more are there ?
|
||||
|
||||
- Italian bank collapses on exposure to Greensill and GFG. Source : <https://www.ft.com/content/c02a6e97-5505-4d4a-933f-a0e934ca6eda>
|
||||
|
||||
🚀🚀 End of edit 🚀🚀
|
||||
|
||||
On top of that, the CEOs of all major US banks have to testify before Congress this week on May 26th and 27th. Source : <https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-04-15/wall-street-bank-ceos-called-to-testify-before-congress-in-may>
|
||||
|
||||
How often does this happen ? Since 2008, they were called twice to testify before Congress according to above article.
|
||||
|
||||
6\. The rich divorcing and/or selling stocks 💔
|
||||
|
||||
So Bill Gates divorced and Gabe Plotkin divorced ? Huh. Weird...
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/npk8r7sisb171.png?width=1843&format=png&auto=webp&s=4d0027e7f8aff470b5261852c4c9d77eca4e3380)
|
||||
|
||||
Wow. That's a lotta shares. A week before the tech sector dumped.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/zaru329qsb171.png?width=1851&format=png&auto=webp&s=e454d39dc0c95a2b9774b013d988be25ff038d3f)
|
||||
|
||||
Mark Zuckerberg selling his FB shares. Goes all the way back to February.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/f2ouo5l4tb171.png?width=1852&format=png&auto=webp&s=ab00893677a8db4726d740bef4520169e1e5896e)
|
||||
|
||||
Google too?
|
||||
|
||||
Source: [finviz.com](https://finviz.com/)
|
||||
|
||||
Edit:
|
||||
|
||||
- Let's not forget Warren Buffett and his company Berkshire Hathaway sold most of their bank shares (Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, M&T Bank, PNC Financial, Synchrony Financial, Wells Fargo, US Bancorp, and BNY Mellon) during the past 5 quarters. Source : <https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/warren-buffett-dumped-goldman-sachs-jpmorgan-and-other-bank-stocks-last-year-they-ve-now-surged-to-record-highs-meaning-the-investor-left-billions-on-the-table/ar-AAKc7Dr>
|
||||
|
||||
7\. The domestic market and the international markets 📉
|
||||
|
||||
Let's look back at the past 2 weeks.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/duhmxe5itb171.png?width=1284&format=png&auto=webp&s=9c6bfde6a2be1b567cdb1452511b99cc9bfc9872)
|
||||
|
||||
05/19 by u/CryptoFX1
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/geupg0nmtb171.png?width=1136&format=png&auto=webp&s=8f07d1be7f95801e2515e780313342ce1d5e2d6f)
|
||||
|
||||
On May 12, Nikkei Bled. Only 1% Away From the Low of Jan 28. by u/incandescent-leaf
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/yylsva8stb171.png?width=960&format=png&auto=webp&s=d60431874a4b4df632980e526b9af812ada31d7f)
|
||||
|
||||
"Taiwan Stock Exchange Index just wiped out YTD gains. This is abnormal. Very likely that it will also affect the US markets (though many can argue that this is actually a reflection of the US markets, and I would agree)" by u/_atworkdontsendnudes
|
||||
|
||||
- [Asian markets](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nahhak/asian_markets_are_tanking_once_again_following/) and [other international markets](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nafv9y/international_markets_are_doing_super_well_honest/) are tanking, following another day of decline in the US markets (May 12-13)
|
||||
|
||||
Ok, the market has had its green days here and there. But overall, it's been pretty unusually red, right ? Yeah, also, all of this could be unrelated. Could be a coincidence. What do I know ? You be the judge.
|
||||
|
||||
8\. The media 📰
|
||||
|
||||
Usually very biased or bought out, but there are some exceptions like this article: [Are we on the verge of a new financial crisis?](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/ncgojw/are_we_on_the_verge_of_a_new_financial_crisis_the/) The GameStop case, the signals of Hedge Funds and the rise of crypto.
|
||||
|
||||
What's concerning is that even "biased media" is warning of inflation, hyperinflation and an impending crash. No links, just go on YouTube. If they're talking about it, we know shit's about to hit the fan soon...
|
||||
|
||||
Edit:
|
||||
|
||||
- Ever doubted media manipulation ? Remember this video ["Independent" media using the EXACT same words](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nbpusp/if_you_ever_doubted_media_manipulation_remember/) and this video of the 2008 crash: [Not a single expert/spokesperson mentioned the true cause of the crash; Mortgage Bonds.](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nbrl8h/watch_this_video_of_cnbc_during_the_2008_crash/)
|
||||
|
||||
- Remember "Bear Stearns is fine" back in 2008 ? Cramer says he's confident inflation will not end up crushing US economy. Source : <https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/cramer-says-hes-confident-inflation-will-not-end-up-crushing-us-economy/ar-AAKl951>
|
||||
|
||||
- Motley Fool agrees, as per their "38 reasons you don't have to fear a stock market crash" article: <https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/05/23/38-reason-you-dont-have-to-fear-stock-market-crash/>
|
||||
|
||||
9\. GameStop 🎮
|
||||
|
||||
I think you know what I'm thinking of. Let me just repeat this. We have played the game while following the rules. We played against players that had cheat codes in an unfair game, designed for us to lose. Yet, here we are.
|
||||
|
||||
Buy, hodl, and vote fellow 🐈 & 🦍& 🐜. I appreciate you all. The rest can fuck right off.
|
||||
|
||||
🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀
|
||||
|
||||
```
|
||||
Edit: alright, who the f reported me ? Seems like the shills don't like this. To everyone else, I am perfectly happy with my life 😉🤑
|
||||
|
||||
Edit 2: I guess I was too subtle. I was reported for self-harm and potential suicide. Let me make it clear, I have absolutely zero thoughts about this. I love my life, even if it's a mess.
|
||||
|
||||
Also, thank you all for the awards and kind feedback! Was not expecting to gain so much traction. "Controversial" title is a reference to the movie The Big Short. Some of you (superstonkers) caught on.
|
||||
|
||||
Lots of great input and good discussion in the comments.
|
||||
|
||||
A few people questioning my sources and my background. Listen... forget it.
|
||||
|
||||
```
|
||||
|
||||
🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀
|
||||
|
||||
10\. The flurry of new rules and regulations 📝
|
||||
|
||||
- Let's not forget Gary Gensler, Chairman of the SEC, was sworn in on a Saturday (April 17, 2021). [Why the Weekend Swear in Ceremony for Gary Gensler is of Significance](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/mtikm9/why_the_weekend_swear_in_ceremony_for_gary/)
|
||||
|
||||
- Also interesting how the DTCC, OCC, ICC, and NSCC have been implementing new rules and regulations like crazy in such a short time-span. Below is an overview of them (credits to [u/MATTATI2005](https://www.reddit.com/u/MATTATI2005/)). And here's [another great DD](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/ngru15/the_flurry_of_rules_before_the_storm_dtc_icc_occ/) tying them in with the FTD cycles of GME.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/hdabo7p6vc171.png?width=975&format=png&auto=webp&s=d089ca7c3e1d9cf27bfdb9ed0762f9b036c4b643)
|
||||
|
||||
- Michael J. Burry, famous for seeing the early signs of the 2008 crash and making bank, also got shushed a few months ago, deleting his Twitter account. In his profile, he linked this, only to remove it 1 day later: <https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/notes/feds-notes/ins-and-outs-of-collateral-re-use-20181221.htm>. Here's a great DD explaining how Michael Burry Handed us the Missing Piece on a Silver Plate, [How Financial Institutions Using US Treasury Securities Nearly Caused the Market to Collapse and What Does it Mean for Us](https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/comments/mil875/michael_burry_handed_us_the_missing_piece_on_a/)
|
||||
|
||||
11\. Margin debt 💵
|
||||
|
||||
FINRA Margin Debt is at a current level of 822.55B, up from 813.68B last month and up from 479.29B one year ago. This is a change of 1.09% from last month and 71.62% from one year ago. Source: <https://ycharts.com/indicators/finra_margin_debt>. Thank you to [u/CapoeiraCharles](https://www.reddit.com/u/CapoeiraCharles/) who reminded me of this.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/szaksdemvb171.png?width=1154&format=png&auto=webp&s=b8b26435ab2e534370f322600c2a7ffa1098ce13)
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/9ot4jz0nqb171.png?width=910&format=png&auto=webp&s=1fe3c5cad336c78e6aa3846438430e3f4d94a8ff)
|
||||
|
||||
12\. More charts 📉
|
||||
|
||||
I'm just going to leave this here. You be the judge of what this all means. Credits to [u/peruvian_bull](https://www.reddit.com/u/peruvian_bull/).
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/b5k88sr7pb171.png?width=640&format=png&auto=webp&s=76a3b153b728898635c81fa78de60d775554210b)
|
||||
|
||||
13\. Final words 💎
|
||||
|
||||
My goal is not to incite panic but to share data and encourage discussion. Without knowledge, where would we even begin, let alone be prepared ? Imo, this is what makes [r/superstonk](https://www.reddit.com/r/superstonk/) great. It's like a hive mind of 300k+ people sharing info.
|
||||
|
||||
To those who are panicking, I believe US banks insure up to $250k for each account. The comment section below is quite informative as well.
|
||||
|
||||
Are all the points in my post correlated ? Maybe, maybe not. Saying they are would be speculation. However, each point was based on facts and I think that's what matters. The rest is up for you to decide.
|
||||
|
||||
This is not financial advice. If I missed anything, please let me know.
|
||||
|
||||
🚀🚀🚀
|
@ -0,0 +1,300 @@
|
||||
The Fed is pinned into a corner from the 2008 can-kick utilizing QE, and the economic effects of COVID. They are stuck battling a collateral crisis AND a liquidity crisis. The Fed is currently fudging the numbers of treasuries to hide a collateral shortage and to try to prop the economy up.
|
||||
===================================================================================================================================================================================================================================================================================================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/Criand](https://www.reddit.com/user/Criand/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/o4rfnu/the_fed_is_pinned_into_a_corner_from_the_2008/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
[DD 👨🔬](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22DD%20%F0%9F%91%A8%E2%80%8D%F0%9F%94%AC%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||
0\. Preface
|
||||
|
||||
I am not a financial advisor. I do not provide financial advice. Many thoughts here are my opinion, and others can be speculative.
|
||||
|
||||
I'm personally happy to see that there is a shift from GME DD to macro-economics DD. Because it provides a much wider insight into how the market is behaving, and how GME would NOT be the cause of a market crash. Everything has been a pressure cooker over the past decade, ready to burst, and the new DD provides insight on when things might go down.
|
||||
|
||||
The new DD also diverges from the expectations of things to shoot up in price every week, where everyone is watching T+21/T+35/Net Capital cycles. It gives a general "MOASS will most likely occur when everything falls due to liquidation of defaulting Banks / Hedge Funds / Financial Institutions".
|
||||
|
||||
It gives me peace of mind, because I do not watch for specific dates around GME to cause the surge. I watch the economy at the macro scale to understand when things could blow.
|
||||
|
||||
And to any skeptics - yes, it is possible that GME could never blow up. Do I think it will blow up? Sure I do. But I encourage YOU to read this post, disregarding GME, and to instead understand what is going on with the economy on the macro scale.
|
||||
|
||||
Even if the GME play is wrong in your eyes, it is good to understand how the economy could crash harder than it did in 2008. I don't care if you don't believe in GME. I care about you, and don't want YOU to be hurt.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/pscahu4lxk671.png?width=727&format=png&auto=webp&s=2e5ee31eaef0413023a8cc4be07087210081554c)
|
||||
|
||||
Me IRL - Maybe - Sometime
|
||||
|
||||
1\. Before We Begin: An Overview of Repo And Reverse Repo
|
||||
|
||||
Repo and Reverse Repo might be a bit confusing. You probably saw on this subreddit or in news that the reverse repo market has been blowing up, and it's a bit concerning.
|
||||
|
||||
It's not too complicated if you just imagine it between two entities: the Federal Reserve and Banks.
|
||||
|
||||
For both Repo and Reverse Repo, it is an agreement between two parties for one of them to sell some security for a price, and they agree to buy that security back at a later date at a higher price based on some interest rate (usually). This is called a "Repurchase Agreement", where "Repo" is a standard "Repurchase Agreement" and the "Reverse Repo" is a "Reverse Repurchase Agreement", the inverse of a "Repo".
|
||||
|
||||
The length of these Repurchase Agreements can be various lengths. Such as overnight, one month, three month, etc.. But what we're seeing is short-term overnight Reverse Repos. The parties swap, and then the next trading day they swap back. It is not a permanent extraction of the underlying security. It is an overnight swap. A permanent extraction comes from Quantitative Easing or Quantitative Tightening, both of which I will discuss later.
|
||||
|
||||
- Repo (Repurchase Agreement) - This is where the bank swaps collateral (such as US Treasuries) for cash. This is used when the banks have too much collateral and not enough cash, or when the banks want to generate profit off of giving loans to other parties in the repo market.
|
||||
|
||||
- Reverse Repo (Reverse Repurchase Agreement) - This is where the bank swaps cash (liquidity) for collateral (such as US Treasuries). This is used when the banks have too much cash (liquidity) and not enough collateral. The main reason behind this behavior is to pump balance sheets for the night.
|
||||
|
||||
Below is a diagram I made which might make this more clear. It is between the Fed (left) and Banks (right):
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/ukum83cf2k671.png?width=1920&format=png&auto=webp&s=99d4c612df82013aed06ff2b22621500a80071cf)
|
||||
|
||||
Repo and QT Versus Reverse Repo and QE
|
||||
|
||||
2\. Quantitative Easing Can-Kick of 2008, Slowly Draining Collateral From The Market
|
||||
|
||||
Note: If you want an overview of what led to the 2008 crash, check out [my previous post](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/o0scoy/the_bigger_short_how_2008_is_repeating_at_a_much/) which has a summary of the documentary "Inside Job (2010)". It also describes where we're probably headed based on SLR, the DTC, ICC, OCC, NSCC rules, and mortgage default protections expiring June 30th, 2021.
|
||||
|
||||
Zoom back in time to 2008. The economy took a massive dump due to Wall Street's abuse of derivatives and leverage. They created a bunch of toxic CDOs mostly consisting of [subprime Mortgages](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/subprimeloan.asp) to create an economic apocalyptic scenario around Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS). Everything was overleveraged and was a massive balloon of bets based on the performance of the MBS's.
|
||||
|
||||
Currently, there's evidence of Wall Street doing the same abuse of toxic CDO's but this time with Commercial Mortgage-Backed Securities (CMBS). [See above linked post for this detail]
|
||||
|
||||
The economy was hurting pretty bad from the 2008 crash, and it was going to continue going into a complete death spiral until the Federal Reserve (Fed) introduced Quantitative Easing (QE):
|
||||
|
||||
> The Fed announced QE1 on November 25, 2008. Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke announced an aggressive attack on the financial crisis of 2008. The Fed began buying $500 billion in mortgage-backed securities and $100 billion in other debt. QE supported the housing market that the subprime mortgage crisis had devastated. - [Source](https://www.thebalance.com/what-is-qe1-3305530)
|
||||
|
||||
If you're still scratching your head on what QE is, here's the Wikipedia overview definition, as well as (hopefully) a more simplified definition.
|
||||
|
||||
[Quantitative Easing](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quantitative_easing) (QE) - is a monetary policy whereby a central bank purchases at scale government bonds or other financial assets in order to inject money into the economy to expand economic activity.
|
||||
|
||||
- This is what the Fed will do to extract collateral (including US Treasuries) from the economy in order to push in liquidity. The Fed started doing this in 2008 to extract toxic collateral from the market and encourage economic growth because it allowed more cash flow in the economy.
|
||||
|
||||
- This pulls out collateral from the economy, and pushes cash (liquidity) in.
|
||||
|
||||
- It was a ticking timebomb ever since it started, because it extracts collateral from the market, slowly creating a collateral shortage issue.
|
||||
|
||||
Check out the effects of QE on the Dow Jones Industrial Average ($DJI):
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/cktjwttu8k671.png?width=1528&format=png&auto=webp&s=4e23f2e54e6204d8c56323d7e6bc8772c1a02535)
|
||||
|
||||
DJI Before And After Quantitative Easing Begins
|
||||
|
||||
It was helping the economy reverse the death spiral, and it has been pumping the economy ever since the introduction of QE. The problem is, of course, that collateral would continue to be sucked out of the market through the mechanics of QE.
|
||||
|
||||
And QE can't continue forever, because collateral is a fundamental part of the repo market which allows cash to flow in the economy. When you don't have collateral, you can't post the collateral in the market for cash from banks, and thus the flow of cash basically shuts down. You cannot perform a normal repo transaction between a Bank / Hedge Fund / Financial Institution.
|
||||
|
||||
The Fed tried to stop QE after a while. Instead of pulling collateral out of the economy, they needed to try to push collateral back into the economy. In order to stop QE, they tried what was, in essence, the "reverse" of QE called Quantitative Tightening (QT).
|
||||
|
||||
[Quantitative Tightening](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quantitative_tightening) (QT) - (or quantitative hardening) is a contractionary monetary policy applied by a central bank to decrease the amount of liquidity within the economy. The policy is the reverse of quantitative easing (QE), aimed to increase money supply in order to "stimulate" the economy.
|
||||
|
||||
- This is what the Fed will do to extract liquidity from the economy in order to push in collateral. It is used to attempt to reverse the effects of QE, to try to regain balance in the economy.
|
||||
|
||||
- This pulls out cash (liquidity) from the economy, and pushes collateral in.
|
||||
|
||||
- The Fed attempted QT in 2018, but it proved to have very bad consequences on the economy. So, they went back to QE in 2019, continuing to can-kick the effects of the 2008 crash.
|
||||
|
||||
This is a chart showing the Fed's "Total Assets", where collateral is an asset for the Fed. So when collateral was extracted from the economy through QE, it went onto their "Assets" side of their balance sheet. When collateral was pushed back into the economy through QT, it was extracted from their "Assets" side of their balance sheet.
|
||||
|
||||
1. At the start of QE in 2008, there is a surge of assets due to the buying up of MBS's and treasuries.
|
||||
|
||||
2. Around 2018 the assets began to decline because the Fed attempted QT by pushing collateral back into the economy and sucking liquidity out.
|
||||
|
||||
3. Around September 2019 the assets began to increase again because the Fed went back to QE after realizing the negative effects it was having on the economy due to causing a liquidity shortage.
|
||||
|
||||
So... what happened in September of 2019? Why did QT fail after a decade of QE?
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/x6pfomz2ck671.png?width=893&format=png&auto=webp&s=1c667c5cc3dbc94de50944208f107aac1dd72d73)
|
||||
|
||||
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/bst_recenttrends.htm
|
||||
|
||||
3\. Quantitative Easing Cannot Be Reversed. The Can-Kick Continues Until The Economy Crashes
|
||||
|
||||
Despite pumping in a bunch of liquidity into the market through QE, the economy was still lacking liquidity. When the Fed started to reverse QE through QT, the liquidity in the market tightened and thus the negative effects on the economy began to surface in September of 2019.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/9sd32gdxdk671.png?width=630&format=png&auto=webp&s=0ee9d749419bc2b6c0a84682f6f9b0b886ceca93)
|
||||
|
||||
https://blog.pimco.com/en/2019/09/repo-rate-spike-a-tail-of-low-liquidity
|
||||
|
||||
Less than a year after starting QT, a liquidity crisis emerged on September 15th, 2019, when the repo rate spiked up severely. This was a clash of events surrounding the lower liquidity issue.
|
||||
|
||||
> Banks' "reporting" dates are known inflection points in the short-term funding markets and typically fall at the end of the month, quarter, and of course the year. But periodically, the 15th of the month is also a pressure point. Such was the case this past Monday when a short-term funding rate that had been hovering around 2.21% soared as high as 10%.
|
||||
>
|
||||
> The funding market succumbed to a trifecta of pressures:
|
||||
>
|
||||
> 1. Payments on corporate taxes were due on 15 September, leading to high redemptions of more than $35 billion in money market funds.
|
||||
>
|
||||
>
|
||||
> 2. Cash balances increased by an additional $83 billion in the U.S. Treasury general account, which reduces excess reserves and simultaneously acts to reduce the aggregate supply of overnight liquidity available in funding markets.
|
||||
>
|
||||
>
|
||||
> 3. Dealers needed an additional $20 billion in funding to finance the settlement of recent scheduled U.S. Treasury issuance.
|
||||
>
|
||||
>
|
||||
>
|
||||
> ...
|
||||
>
|
||||
> ...
|
||||
>
|
||||
> On September 15, as so many institutions needed funding, repo rates climbed well above the fed funds upper-end target at the time of 2.25% to briefly touch 5%. The following day, cash repo markets traded as high as 10% for those looking to finance agency mortgage positions overnight. Later that morning, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York acknowledged the pressures and conducted its first Open Market Operation (OMO) in more than a decade to add reserves to the funding markets that were clearly in need of the liquidity. Subsequently, after its meeting Wednesday, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) announced a cut in the interest on excess reserves (IOER) of 0.30% -- five basis points more than its cut in the fed funds rate -- providing some relief to the upper bound of money-market yields. - [Source](https://blog.pimco.com/en/2019/09/repo-rate-spike-a-tail-of-low-liquidity)
|
||||
|
||||
Due to the reduced liquidity from QT, because it sucks out liquidity and pushes in collateral, the markets hit a critical point where there was too much cash that was needed and not enough to supply those who needed the cash. There was huge amounts of strain on the economy.
|
||||
|
||||
This was most likely due to continued large leverage + derivatives abuse stemming from what led to the 2000-2007 Housing Market Bubble. The Fed realized that QT could not continue because of the liquidity shortage that was arising. They had to stop QT and continue QE in order to continue to pull out collateral and pump in liquidity. And thus, the collateral shortage time bomb continued ticking.
|
||||
|
||||
Below is the figure of when the repo rate shot up to ~10% within a day. This was awful, because it was much more expensive for loans to go out. The repo market would have shut down from nobody wanting to spend 10% on a repurchase agreement to get cash for the day. How would ANYONE get 10% return overnight to pay for these loans? The flow of cash was about to halt.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/86p3getwwj671.png?width=771&format=png&auto=webp&s=2a503c9055d655f80557da8bf46744c205f60011)
|
||||
|
||||
https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/notes/feds-notes/what-happened-in-money-markets-in-september-2019-20200227.htm
|
||||
|
||||
4\. COVID Initiated A Liquidity Crisis In The Banks, Which Now Fights With The Collateral Shortage
|
||||
|
||||
QE continued on until 2020, when suddenly, COVID came in. Nobody expected it.
|
||||
|
||||
And boy, oh boy, did COVID wreak havoc on the economy and the financial world. While the Fed was slowly approaching a collateral crisis through QE, COVID exacerbated the issue due to the sudden impact it had on liquidity. COVID increased liquidity, and when you have a sudden surge of liquidity, you need to balance it with collateral. The economic balance was tipping as of March of 2020.
|
||||
|
||||
This does not even take into account the effects of many people losing their jobs, being unable to pay rent/mortgages, and other issues that arose from COVID. Those all apply to another ticking time bomb: the CMBS issue, equivalent to the MBS bubble of 2000-2007, which I discussed in my other post.
|
||||
|
||||
The COVID pandemic caused a surge of money being printed from stimulus packages in the US. When you print a bunch of money into the economy on a whim, you risk driving inflation of the currency itself. What does inflation encourage? Less spending from companies, due to the higher price. This leads to less loaning of cash in the repo market, and banks obtaining an ever-surplus of cash.
|
||||
|
||||
COVID caused a sudden surge of trillions of dollars worth that the economy couldn't handle naturally. Compare the treasury balance versus the deposits over time, and the surge that occurred in 2020 in response to the pandemic. The COVID stimulus bills pumped in a massive amount of money into the economy at the risk of inflation. And we're already seeing the effects of inflation occur on the [supply chain](https://www.businessinsider.com/why-supply-shortages-economy-inventory-chips-lumber-cars-toilet-paper-2021-5):
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/amwahlvykk671.png?width=877&format=png&auto=webp&s=1e343c265451a1b2d6754a4d04971bb445e58f43)
|
||||
|
||||
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/bst_recenttrends.htm
|
||||
|
||||
Stimulus checks were sent out to retail. Companies were bailed out. Unemployment increased, resulting in more unemployment benefits going out due to the relief bills. More money printed. More money deposited at banks.
|
||||
|
||||
There was a ton of cash (liquidity) being pumped into the economy over the past year from March 2020 to June 2021. Because of this, due to inflation and an excess of cash, banks began to get a surplus of cash deposited. People had more cash. They didn't need to spend money on rent/mortages. Companies didn't want to spend more due to fears of inflation. So, bank deposits went up.
|
||||
|
||||
The main problem with this is that the cash deposited with the banks became a liability on their balance sheets. When you have a surplus of liabilities on your balance sheet, you need to 'balance' it out with assets, such as US Treasuries.
|
||||
|
||||
The banks were now in trouble because they had way, way too many deposits. They were at risk of defaulting due to their SLR requirements. Here is a figure showing how deposits (liabilities) of banks increased over time. It mushroomed during the COVID pandemic:
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/6dm07sa3oj671.png?width=891&format=png&auto=webp&s=9acce6ceb03841c64828198eefff21eb06b1e310)
|
||||
|
||||
https://www.ft.com/content/a5e165f7-a524-4b5b-9939-de689b6a1687
|
||||
|
||||
To combat this issue, the Fed decided to introduce a relief program for banks regarding SLR because of the massive increase of liquidity due to the uppercut that COVID created on the financial world.
|
||||
|
||||
> The supplementary leverage ratio (SLR) is the US implementation of the Basel III Tier 1 leverage ratio, with which banks calculate the amount of common equity capital they must hold relative to their total leverage exposure. Large US banks must hold 3%. Top-tier bank holding companies must also hold an extra 2% buffer, for a total of 5%. The SLR, which does not distinguish between assets based on risk, is conceived as a backstop to risk-weighted capital requirements. - [Source](https://www.risk.net/definition/supplementary-leverage-ratio-slr)
|
||||
|
||||
In more of a simplified summary, SLR is a requirement of total equity that a bank must hold compared to their total leverage exposure. If they are exposed to leverage, they need to hold enough capital for that position otherwise they are at risk of defaulting. In this case, they only need to hold a measly 3%-5%, dependent on how large of a bank they are. Just like in 2008 - these banks can have massive leverage and SLR is to "help protect the economy" from them abusing leverage.
|
||||
|
||||
But hey, the Fed put in place some protections for the year to help these banks since they were obviously overleveraged to begin with. These protections expired on March 31st, 2021.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/14pa4yngtj671.png?width=1433&format=png&auto=webp&s=534726bcf83b0bf40ede7b196191d66c29094d6e)
|
||||
|
||||
https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/03/29/the-fed-is-ending-one-of-its-pandemic-relief-progr/
|
||||
|
||||
> The Fed's relief program last year allowed banks to exclude U.S. Treasuries and central bank reserves from the SLR calculation. The relief program was a response to the many non-banking institutions selling Treasuries to raise cash, and coincided with other measures, including the $2.2 trillion CARES Act, which resulted in even more Treasuries being sold into the market. - [Source](https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/03/29/the-fed-is-ending-one-of-its-pandemic-relief-progr/)
|
||||
|
||||
Right after the expiration of the protection plans of SLR, the Reverse Repo market began to blow up because the banks had way too much liquidity and not enough treasuries on their balance sheets.
|
||||
|
||||
The argument that the banks were "parking their money at the Fed" was a reasonable explanation at first. Though, with 0% ROI from the RRP at the time, the banks would literally get no return on their investments. So for that argument, all of their other investments would have had to yield negative in order for RRP to be more enticing. Does this make sense to you that they'd use 0% RRP to be an 'investment'?
|
||||
|
||||
The fact that the RRP began to ramp up and then explode after the SLR protections lifted makes this look like a collateral shortage issue. And of course, with QE occurring over the past decade, makes it more likely, because collateral was sucked out of the economy and onto the Fed's balance sheet over the years.
|
||||
|
||||
That was of course questionable on whether it was a liquidity or collateral issue, until, the RRP rate dropped negative in March of 2021, as well as in April of 2021.
|
||||
|
||||
5\. Reverse Repo Rate Flips Negative; Warnings Of Collateral Shortage
|
||||
|
||||
Think about it quite simply in a supply/demand factor and the reverse repo when the RRP rate dropped negative.
|
||||
|
||||
You are a bank. You want to get Collateral from the Fed to balance your sheets. The Fed says they'll give you a small amount of interest for borrowing their collateral overnight. But now, imagine that the supply of collateral is too low and demand is too high. The Fed will no longer want to pay you for borrowing its collateral so it will shift the interest rate down. If demand really outweighs supply, then the Fed would then want cash from YOU in order for YOU to borrow the collateral.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/eysh9mx9ok671.png?width=961&format=png&auto=webp&s=4d9d1695922b01651eae06c6bcc2753ad0f5b789)
|
||||
|
||||
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-bonds-repo-explainer/explainer-u-s-repo-market-flirts-with-negative-rates-as-fed-seeks-to-absorb-excess-cash-idUSKBN2C32AI
|
||||
|
||||
This was just one of the warning signs that a collateral issue was arising. The RRP rates were already at 0%, so the only way for them to move was either up or down. An increase in treasury demand could shift it down, into the negatives, which it did.
|
||||
|
||||
6\. The Fed Is Fudging The Numbers And Hiding A Collateral Shortage
|
||||
|
||||
The drop in RRP interest rates to the negative came after the Fed increased the total borrowing amount of counterparties in the RRP from $30 Billion to $80 Billion.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/by2ftlpopk671.png?width=1028&format=png&auto=webp&s=747f50e2fb63aabaedb6e9e947aa117f6c75f91b)
|
||||
|
||||
https://finadium.com/fed-increases-rrp-limits-from-30-billion-to-80-billion-to-ensure-supply-at-near-0-rates/
|
||||
|
||||
Why did they do this? Think of it again as a supply versus demand issue. For simple math, imagine the Fed has 50 members.
|
||||
|
||||
- At a limit of $30 Billion per member, that is a total of $30B * 50 = $1.5 Trillion that can be borrowed.
|
||||
|
||||
- At a limit of $80 Billion per member, that is a total of $80B * 50 = $4 Trillion that can be borrowed.
|
||||
|
||||
What is this doing? Why did the Fed increase the limit?
|
||||
|
||||
It's artificially inflating the total "supply" of treasuries that can be borrowed by counterparties in the RRP. It is attempting to keep the interest rate positive because there is so much demand for collateral and not enough supply in the markets and on the Fed's balance sheet. The RRP was already at 0%, there was nowhere for it to go besides negative, which as you know implies a shortage of collateral and a red flag for the financial world.
|
||||
|
||||
Not only did they artificially inflate the total supply to combat the demand by increasing the total borrow amount, the Fed decided to not affect the assets side of its balance sheet during these RRP transactions. This effectively leaves the supply of treasuries on the Fed's balance sheet the same. This is another method to can-kick to avoid interest rates going negative and flashing a collateral issue.
|
||||
|
||||
> When the Desk conducts RRP open market operations, it sells securities held in the System Open Market Account (SOMA) to eligible RRP counterparties, with an agreement to buy the assets back on the RRP's specified maturity date. This leaves the SOMA portfolio the same size, as securities sold temporarily under repurchase agreements continue to be shown as assets held by the SOMA in accordance with generally accepted accounting principles, but the transaction shifts some of the liabilities on the Federal Reserve's balance sheet from deposits held by depository institutions (also known as bank reserves) to reverse repos while the trade is outstanding. - [Source](https://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/rrp_faq/rrp-faq-archive/rrp-faq-200715)
|
||||
|
||||
We can see this visually from the Fed's balance sheet that they're not affecting their assets during the RRP. They're allowing counterparties to borrow treasuries WITHOUT affecting the supply - desperately trying to get away from the rising demand for treasuries and avoid treasury yields from snapping down (and likewise the price of treasuries up):
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/evxua80crk671.png?width=893&format=png&auto=webp&s=6a925b05e7a460b252457923ca97c730c511da6b)
|
||||
|
||||
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/bst_recenttrends.htm
|
||||
|
||||
On top of this, the Fed showed their hand ONCE AGAIN of fudging the numbers on June 16th when they bumped up the RRP rate to 0.05%. The short-term treasury yields briefly went BELOW the RRP interest amount of 0.05% on June 17th when the new RRP ROI was in effect.
|
||||
|
||||
This is a BAD sign because now overnight RRP had a higher return than 2-month and 3-month treasury bonds.
|
||||
|
||||
The Fed is fudging the numbers trying to hide the treasury bond shortage.
|
||||
|
||||
The Fed cannot keep this up. They're trying to keep the T-bill yield curve propped up despite the treasury shortage. They're not affecting their balance sheet, and they also artificially increased the amount of treasuries in their "supply" by increasing the counterparty borrow limit from $30 Billion to $80 Billion.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/sp52qka5tj671.png?width=858&format=png&auto=webp&s=69d7ec8971035a7939f7bed116f7c923215019d6)
|
||||
|
||||
https://alhambrapartners.com/2021/06/17/the-fomc-accidentally-exposes-itself-reverse-repo-style/
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/1f64o77tsk671.png?width=972&format=png&auto=webp&s=48e83c02895066c4e300c5a8adf3d3a065a6b016)
|
||||
|
||||
https://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=yield
|
||||
|
||||
The Fed is also planning on increasing interest rates. This starts to scare the economy, which is most likely why we're now seeing the dump of the stock market over the past few days and the dump leading into the week of June 21st. This is bad for the markets because it means it's going to cost more for the economy to function (e.g. what happened in 2019 when Repo Rates spiked to 10%). Companies have to spend more to hire, produce, etc. It costs the economy more to function.
|
||||
|
||||
The Fed is pinned between a collateral issue from QE sucking out collateral, and a liquidity issue and COVID pumping in too much liquidity for the banks to handle.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/uhhhzguotk671.png?width=1202&format=png&auto=webp&s=cab32cef615311320c6cf27461fa7fb18b0fc7af)
|
||||
|
||||
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/16/fed-holds-rates-steady-but-raises-inflation-expectations-sharply-and-makes-no-mention-of-taper.html
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/p0v9ij2b0k671.png?width=1013&format=png&auto=webp&s=bf8f525bfc55e8f1287e921bbaaa408c5c27a253)
|
||||
|
||||
https://www.bbc.com/news/business-57090421
|
||||
|
||||
7\. Quarter Ends Explode The Reverse Repo. The Next Quarter End Is June 30th, 2021.
|
||||
|
||||
This is not a date to look forward to for GME potentially rising. This is a date of "Holy shit. The RRP could explode to the point where treasury supply vs demand is unable to take it any more".
|
||||
|
||||
About 3-4 days prior to quarter ends, the RRP explodes up in the amount of collateral that is borrowed from the Fed. This is because of the underlying plumbing of the financial markets, identified in Section 3 above, causes additional strain on the financial markets. The banks need more collateral to prop up their balance sheets for the night of the quarter-ends.
|
||||
|
||||
The RRP borrowed amount can shoot up almost 2-4x the current levels. The amount of RRP at the moment is $747 Billion. The RRP could explode 2-4x the amount it is at upon June 25th, 2021. What if it's $1 Trillion by then due to the massive amount of collateral needed by the banks? More?
|
||||
|
||||
Can the Fed handle it?
|
||||
|
||||
Can they still prop the yield curve up?
|
||||
|
||||
Will the short-term treasuries dip below the RRP amount once more due to this shortage and flash red flags to the world of financial instability in the US?
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/63daa1s8gk671.png?width=1277&format=png&auto=webp&s=d04d4a6b577152d26d6f7ea6e0c31f05f7ce80dc)
|
||||
|
||||
https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nylihz/previous_rrp_behavior_on_quarter_ends_massive/
|
||||
|
||||
If the US Treasury yield curve snaps down from this instability and the Fed no longer able to prop up the yield curve, then it can drive treasury prices up.
|
||||
|
||||
If [/u/atobitt](https://www.reddit.com/u/atobitt/)'s "[Everything Short](https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/comments/mgucv2/the_everything_short/)" is true and they're actually shorting treasuries, then that can lead to banks defaulting due to the price of treasuries shooting up. When they default, they'll be forced to buy up all the treasuries that they've shorted into the market.
|
||||
|
||||
And it is very possible that they are shorting treasuries.
|
||||
|
||||
When performing RRP of 0%, the repo market was most likely shut down due to nobody needing cash loaned out. The banks only profitable move was to perform the RRP with the Fed and then short treasuries into the market, rehypothecating the treasuries to other parties. This would have also helped prop up the market by artificially increasing the supply of treasuries (collateral) in the market.
|
||||
|
||||
If it's true, and they have truly been performing the "Everything Short", then it could initiate a Global Financial Crisis equivalent to The Great Depression.
|
||||
|
||||
Do I want that to happen? No. But is there a chance? Yes, there is.
|
||||
|
||||
Is GME going to squeeze? Is the DD just false hopium? I don't think it's just hopium. I believe in the DD.
|
||||
|
||||
But some users might think otherwise and not believe in GME or the DD. Hello users outside of [r/superstonk](https://www.reddit.com/r/superstonk/)! If you're reading this, check out the DD on the subreddit!
|
||||
|
||||
Even if there's a slight chance of a GME squeeze in your eyes, and all of these signs are pointing to a market crash...
|
||||
|
||||
[Why not give it a shot](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l4nSHsbFe-o)?
|
421
01-Must-Read/2021-06-23-Updated-Go-No-Go-Launch-Checklist.md
Normal file
421
01-Must-Read/2021-06-23-Updated-Go-No-Go-Launch-Checklist.md
Normal file
@ -0,0 +1,421 @@
|
||||
UPDATE -- Go / No-Go For Launch - The checklist keeping GME on the launchpad.
|
||||
=============================================================================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/nothingbuttherainsir](https://www.reddit.com/user/nothingbuttherainsir/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nhh0f1/update_go_nogo_for_launch_the_checklist_keeping/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
[Possible DD 👨🔬](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22Possible%20DD%20%F0%9F%91%A8%E2%80%8D%F0%9F%94%AC%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||
*TL;DR:*\
|
||||
DTCC / OCC / ICC etc. & Wall St want key things in place before GME unwinds, and we're now looking at a list that's been mostly checked off. This rocket is just about cleared for launch.
|
||||
|
||||
*Last updated: 2021-06-23* | [Original post from 2021-04-22](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/mvq6rs/go_nogo_for_launch_the_dtcc_checklist_keeping_gme/)
|
||||
|
||||
Go / No-Go For Launch
|
||||
|
||||
Opinion - Status: Hold ❌\
|
||||
*We're on a scheduled hold. Preliminary system checks are good enough to launch, and now we are being held for atmospheric conditions to be just right.*
|
||||
|
||||
*GME ignition needs to appear from the outside to be organic, or it will be fairly obvious to the public that The System is built on lies, and run by liars, completely unfair, and this stock was just being flat out controlled for months. Even if Wall St survives financially by implementing all these rules, if they lose the public trust then it is literally "game stopped." They need plausible cover to launch now, the rest is in place.*
|
||||
|
||||
1 - Rules of Engagement ✅
|
||||
|
||||
2 - Funding ✅
|
||||
|
||||
3 - Cover Story for Timing ❌
|
||||
|
||||
4 - Avoiding Perception of Responsibility ✅
|
||||
|
||||
--- *End TL;DR* ---
|
||||
|
||||
Busy few weeks, eh Apes? Figured I'd give this a brush up and post it again since it was a month ago I posted the original. So here's the refreshed, reviewed, reassessed, reformatted, and return of the Go / No-Go Checklist. Freshness stamp at the top, changes by date at the bottom. Please comment with any additions and corrections as always.
|
||||
|
||||
Official notice that this is not financial advice, etc etc. I have no idea if any of this is indeed why these things are happening, or if they are even what I think they are. I bought a handful of shares before DFV's Congressional hearing because something seemed fucky, and that was my first stock purchase EVER. If you make financial decisions off of this speculation, you probably do eat crayons like me. I am literally just some Ape on the internet mashing buttons and you're gonna have to explain to your wife's boyfriend why you took this as advice and then spent your whole allowance already this week.
|
||||
|
||||
So this [post](https://reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/mu9xed/why_were_still_trading_sideways_and_why_we_havent/) from [u/c-digs](https://www.reddit.com/u/c-digs/) is about as close as anyone has come to my personal theory that there is a literal checklist somewhere that is getting marked off before this is allowed to unravel. The DTCC and Wall St (and probably the SEC) definitely do not want this spring to unwind before they are ready, and certainly not in a way in which they don't feel they are in control. These players are Big Corporate dicks with Big Corporate mindsets, and its my bet that they don't do anything without a plan that at least addresses all eventualities.
|
||||
|
||||
However, as it is now probably alarmingly clear to them this isn't just gonna go away on its own (cue Apes waving from the windows of the rocket sitting on the launchpad), the DTCC and pals are now scrambling to get the last things in place before somebody trips over the cord to the shredder at 3am and lands on the launch button.
|
||||
|
||||
I think the list goes something like this, but am intending this to be a crowdsourced document because there is no way I can keep this all straight on my own, and the GME Investor community has done so so much great DD already. There is definitely more to add in terms of DTCC / OCC / NSCC / SEC rules, and please comment with additional items & sources and I'll try to keep up with editing them into the list. Compiling it here can possibly help determine just how close GME probably is to liftoff. It feels like we aren't that far from it now.
|
||||
|
||||
1 - Rules of Engagement
|
||||
|
||||
Opinon - Status: Go for Launch ✅\
|
||||
*The System would benefit most if new rules about payments in a member default situation are in effect prior to launch, and as far as we know at this point, all rules to cover that scenario that were filed are now in place. They can use remaining days to shore up a few more monetary rules, but there aren't any disaster-level rules still pending out there. My opinion is at 100% Go for rules being in place.*
|
||||
|
||||
Let's cover some basics before getting into each specific rule.
|
||||
|
||||
Whose rules cover what:
|
||||
|
||||
DTCC stands for Depoisitory Trust and Clearing Corporation which is made up of 3 self-regulating bodies:
|
||||
|
||||
- [DTC](https://www.dtcc.com/about/businesses-and-subsidiaries/dtc) - The Depository Trust Company
|
||||
|
||||
- [NSCC](https://www.dtcc.com/about/businesses-and-subsidiaries/nscc) - National Securities Clearing Corporation
|
||||
|
||||
- [FICC](https://www.dtcc.com/about/businesses-and-subsidiaries/ficc) - Fixed Income Clearing Corporation
|
||||
|
||||
and handles:
|
||||
|
||||
- Physical Stock Certificates and ownership records, big institutional trades (DTC)
|
||||
|
||||
- Securities trades, clearing, and settlement for nearly all transactions involving US based marketplaces (NSCC)
|
||||
|
||||
- Government Securities and Mortgage-Backed Securities (FICC)
|
||||
|
||||
[OCC](https://www.theocc.com/) - Options Clearing Coroporation handles:\
|
||||
Options (shocker, I know)
|
||||
|
||||
[ICC](https://www.theice.com/clear-credit) - Intercontinental Exchance (ICE) Clear Credit handles:\
|
||||
Credit Default Swaps, or CDS for short.
|
||||
|
||||
Naming Scheme (yes the whole thing is important)\
|
||||
example: SR-DTC-2021-005
|
||||
|
||||
- SR - Type of document filed, SR = Self Regulation
|
||||
|
||||
- DTC - Name of self regulated entity filing it
|
||||
|
||||
- 2021 - Year regulation was filed
|
||||
|
||||
- 005 - Sequence filed in (5th, so far)
|
||||
|
||||
✅ = in effect now\
|
||||
❌ = pending review / revision
|
||||
|
||||
Rules To Protect The System
|
||||
|
||||
Stocks/Securities
|
||||
|
||||
- SR-DTC-2021-003: Obligation to Reconcile Activity on a Regular Basis ✅\
|
||||
*The "You're gonna report your risk daily now, you little shits" Rule.*\
|
||||
Filed 2021-03-09\
|
||||
Effective 2021-03-16\
|
||||
[src](https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/comments/m793h7/new_dtcc_rule_just_passed_in_effect_immediatly/)
|
||||
|
||||
- SR-DTC-2021-004: Amend the Recovery & Wind-down Plan ✅\
|
||||
*The "We'll liquidate your asse(t)s if you default, then make your pals chip in, before we pay a dime ourselves" Rule.*\
|
||||
Also stipulates what the DTCC is willing to cover when reconciling, as in only shares on the books, and why you (yes you Ape) should have a cash account and not a margin account.\
|
||||
Filed 2021-03-29\
|
||||
Effective Immediately\
|
||||
[src](https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/comments/mgs05i/analysis_of_srdtc2021004_dtcc_changing_the_game/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf)
|
||||
|
||||
- SR-DTC-2021-005: Modify the DTC Settlement Service Guide and the Form of DTC Pledgee's Agreement ✅\
|
||||
*The "We're tagging the shares you lend out so you can't do it more than once" Rule.*\
|
||||
While this won't help prevent the current GME squeeze scenario, and would likely ignite the engines on its own, this will prevent a *GME-like* scenario from happening again in the future. [u/Leenixus](https://www.reddit.com/user/Leenixus/) has posted lots of info around DTC-2021-005 if you'd like to follow the saga.\
|
||||
Filed 2021-04-01 [archived original](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/o2nx3z/i_have_the_original_sec_srdtc2021005_before_it/)\
|
||||
Removed for further review src-1\
|
||||
Refiled 2021-06-15 src-2\
|
||||
Effective Immediately upon re-filing\
|
||||
[src-1](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/mpmcyz/good_news_update_on_dtc2021005_according_to_john/), [src-2](https://www.dtcc.com/-/media/Files/Downloads/legal/rule-filings/2021/DTC/SR-DTC-2021-005.pdf)
|
||||
|
||||
- SR-DTC-2021-006: Remove the Security Holder Tracking Service ✅\
|
||||
*The "We're dropping the old way of tracking shares, cause it didn't work well, and DTC-2021-005 will do it better" Rule.*\
|
||||
It was speculated in another post that the old system of tracking needed to be removed so there was no conflict in implementing DTC-2021-005 (I can't find that post here on reddit anymore, src needed!). It's likely that this could pave the way for 005 to be implemented. As if 2021-05-20 I am more inclined to think that it was removed to keep anyone from implementing share tracking prior to 005 being implemented. Filed 2021-04-22\
|
||||
Effective Immediately\
|
||||
[src](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/mwhyhw/sec_files_srdtc2021006_removing_the_old_and/) <- also my post
|
||||
|
||||
- SR-DTC-2021-007: Update the DTC Corporate Actions Distributions Service Guide ✅\
|
||||
*The "Stop bickering back and forth over the manual adjustments to your peer to peer trade records via the dumb APO method, and just use the GD computer validated Claim Connect system, please" Rule.*\
|
||||
Way to make a super vague title DTC... This is mostly about borrowed shares and updating who pays how much when circumstances - like rates - change. The old system (APO) needed both parties to just agree on the adjustments and one side could only submit an adjustment at a time, so it was rarely agreed upon in one pass and the bad guys could likely stall with many back and forths. To me this reads as a please use this better thing now, because APO will go away on July 9th 2021 so you'll have to use Claim Connect by then anyways. Since the lender is likely incentivized to use the new system, it may get adopted in higher numbers sooner.\
|
||||
Filed 2021-04-30\
|
||||
Effective Immediately\
|
||||
Mandatory 2021-07-09\
|
||||
[src](https://www.sec.gov/rules/sro/dtc.htm#SR-DTC-2021-007), [Explainer post](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/n28jes/new_dtc_regulation_posted_srdtc2021007/)
|
||||
|
||||
- SR-DTC-2021-009: Provide Enhanced Clarity for Deadlines and Processing Times ✅\
|
||||
*The "Don't assume we'll be keeping up with our own deadlines just because we have been in the past. We'll do what we want when we want. Also dont cry to us if our choices about deadlines, or someone else's rules about deadlines, kick you in the wallet. We're not chipping in for that." Rule.*\
|
||||
This is basically a re-statement of an ongoing policy by the DTC that their precedent around deadlines/timetables that they themselves have control over should not be misunderstood as a guarantee of them adhering to those same deadlines/timetables in the future. This does not effect deadlines imposed by external regulations though. Further, the DTC stipulates that they are not liable for damages (monetary losses) that are incurred by members from the DTC's choices to act or not act in the same timeframes as they had before, or damages from the actions of anybody else's rules, (SEC, OCC, NSCC, etc).\
|
||||
Filed 2021-06-08\
|
||||
Effective Immediately\
|
||||
[src](https://www.sec.gov/rules/sro/dtc/2021/34-92198.pdf), [Explainer post](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/o1ds30/new_dtc_filing_srdtc2021009_notice_of_filing_and/), [more info](https://reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/o63ev5/dtc2021009_implemented_tomorrow_saying_the_dtc/)
|
||||
|
||||
- SR-NSCC-2021-002: Amend the Supplemental Liquidity Deposit Requirements ✅\
|
||||
*The "We'll margin call your ass if your new daily reports say you're overextended and make us feel scared" Rule.*\
|
||||
Works in conjunction with DTC-2021-003. This rule now appears to be clear to be acted on by the SEC. NSCC filed a Partial Ammendment to this on June 17th for clarification.\
|
||||
Possible insight on why this may have been strategically delayed, via [/u/yosaso](https://www.reddit.com/u/yosaso/) src-4\
|
||||
NSCC-2021-801 Gave Advance Notice of this, and as of 2021-05-04 is cleared to be included with NSC-2021-002. src-2\
|
||||
Filed 2021-03-05\
|
||||
Comment Period Extended to 05-31 / Expected action on or before 2021-06-21 src-3\
|
||||
Approved 2021-06-21 with partial ammendment src-4\
|
||||
Effective 2021-06-23 src-5 [src](https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/comments/mc0zfn/too_ape_didnt_read_summary_of_srnscc2021801/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf), [src-2](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/n51u5d/sec_has_no_objections_to_nscc801/), [src-3](https://www.sec.gov/rules/sro/nscc/2021/34-91788.pdf), [src-4](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/n67h63/the_reason_why_may_4th_was_important/), [src-4](https://www.sec.gov/rules/sro/nscc/2021/34-92213.pdf), [src-5](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/o4z0jc/implementation_of_the_proposed_changes_to_the/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3)
|
||||
|
||||
- SR-NSCC-2021-004: Amend the Recovery & Wind-down Plan ✅\
|
||||
*The "Just so we're clear about stocks specifically, we're really serious about us not paying for your fuckups unless we have to rule" Rule.*\
|
||||
Works in conjunction with DTC-2021-004, but this is specific to securities and was filed first. src-1 This ALSO has language in it about clarifying the mass transfer of customer accounts from a failing member to a stable member. src-2\
|
||||
Filed 2021-03-05\
|
||||
Effective 2021-03-18\
|
||||
[src-1](https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/comments/mc0zfn/too_ape_didnt_read_summary_of_srnscc2021801/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf), [src-2](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/mvybgf/sec_is_expecting_the_need_for_a_mass_emergency/)
|
||||
|
||||
- NSCC-2021-005: Increase the NSCC's Minimum Required Fund Deposit *pending* ❌\
|
||||
*The "We're gonna up your minimum deposit with us from an hysterically low $10K each, to an almost certainly still not enough $250k each" Rule.*\
|
||||
DTCC has submitted this to SEC, but SEC has not approved / published yet, so details may change. src-1\
|
||||
Filed 2021-04-26\
|
||||
Published: 2021-05-10\
|
||||
Approved: Pending, expected action on or before 2021-06-24 (45 days after publication)\
|
||||
Effective: Approval + 10 days max\
|
||||
[src-1](https://www.dtcc.com/legal), [Explainer post](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/mz9gl6/nscc2021005_has_been_signed_today_implementation/)
|
||||
|
||||
Options
|
||||
|
||||
- SR-OCC-2021-003: Increase Persistent Minimum Skin-In-The-Game / Waterfall ✅\
|
||||
*The "You Market Makers are gonna give us more money now in case you fuck up with options later and owe someone more than you have" Rule.*\
|
||||
This is the rule associated with the SR-OCC-2021-801 advanced notice, and SIG filed an opposition during the review period delaying the implementation. src-1 You can read that whiney rant here via this [comment](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nhh0f1/update_go_nogo_for_launch_the_checklist_keeping/gznui8r?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3)\
|
||||
OCC-2021-003 is now approved and both should be in effect no later than Tuesday 2021-06-01 10am Eastern (if SEC approval notice counts as the official written notice to OCC members). src-2\
|
||||
Filed 2021-02-10\
|
||||
Approved 2021-05-27\
|
||||
Effective on or before 2021-06-01 10am EST\
|
||||
[src-1](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/mm8pnz/update_from_sec_on_srocc2021801_aka_srocc2021203/), [src-2](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nmjbov/srocc2021003_approved_that_one_was_needed_for/gzqwqzc?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3)
|
||||
|
||||
Credit Default Swaps
|
||||
|
||||
- SR-ICC-2021-005: Amend the ICC Recovery & Wind-down Plan ✅\
|
||||
*The "Guys, DTC had a pretty good idea, lets also liquidate members first before touching our own cash." Rule.*\
|
||||
Fairly straightforward with this nugget as described by [u/Criand](https://www.reddit.com/u/Criand/):\
|
||||
"Something really cool is they'll not only wipe out members who default on a certain security, they'll wipe out similar positions in that same security of all their other members IF it's high risk/stress to the market."\
|
||||
Filed 2021-03-23\
|
||||
Approved 2021-05-10\
|
||||
Effective Immediately\
|
||||
[src](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nfl69o/new_icc_rules_summary_they_are_preparing_for/)
|
||||
|
||||
- SR-ICC-2021-007: Update the ICC's Treasury Operations Policies and Procedures ✅\
|
||||
*The "Your capital balance sheet is looking a little shaggy there, we think you need a Collateral Haircut" Rule.*\
|
||||
Tightens up what can and cant be considered as collateral, trimming off the stuff that is not deemed worthy, and reducing overall capital, which means you can handle less total risk and/or volatile CDS contracts.\
|
||||
Filed 2021-03-29\
|
||||
Approved 2021-05-13\
|
||||
Effective Immediately\
|
||||
[src](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nfl69o/new_icc_rules_summary_they_are_preparing_for/)
|
||||
|
||||
- SR-ICC-2021-008: Update the ICC Risk Management Model Description ✅\
|
||||
*The "We're gonna start using our best guesses on if the collateral for the loans these psuedo-insurance contracts are based on might go crazy in the near future, 'cause shit is getting weird out there" Rule.*\
|
||||
This is about [Credit Default Swaps](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/creditdefaultswap.asp), which are a bit complex. Essentially this rule appears it primarily will help to reduce the chances of say, BofA failing because they agreed to get paid to take on some of the risk of a loan made by say JP Morgan, and then BofA got fucked over just because JP Morgain made the loan using a volatile stock as collateral and then that stock went bananas... a stock which everyone probably knew was volatile but somehow wasn't a big factor in making the agreement before this rule. The rule also limits the ICC maximum total losses/payout, and ups initial margin requirements.\
|
||||
Filed 2021-03-31\
|
||||
Approved 2021-05-18\
|
||||
Effective Immediately\
|
||||
[src](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nfl69o/new_icc_rules_summary_they_are_preparing_for/)
|
||||
|
||||
- SR-ICC-2021-009: Update the ICC Risk Parameter Setting and Review Policy ✅\
|
||||
*The "We're basing risk on day to day averages now instead of month to month averages" Rule.*\
|
||||
When something strays too far outside of the acceptable baseline, it gets flagged. Now that baseline is automatically calculated day to day, instead of month to month, and manualy reviewed the old way at least monthly. It will result in faster response time to fast moving changes and real risks (safer), but also less shock from too few updates (smoother). All that so they can keep margin levels appropriate. Also cleans up some language to be more generic and descriptive like "Extreme Price Change Scenarios."\
|
||||
Filed 2021-04-02\
|
||||
Approved 2021-05-20\
|
||||
Effective Immediately\
|
||||
[src](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nhdw0f/rick_management_updates_just_went_from_monthly_to/)
|
||||
|
||||
- SR-ICC-2021-014: Update the ICC's Fee Schedules ✅\
|
||||
*The "Huuuuuuuge discounts on swaps! Get 'em while they last!" Rule.*\
|
||||
This cuts fees on CDS contracts about 25%, which sounds like they want to incentivize risk sharing even more. Program is for the 2nd half of 2021, and discounts start June 1st.\
|
||||
Filed 2021-05-07\
|
||||
Approved 2021-05-18\
|
||||
Effective Immediately\
|
||||
[src](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nfl69o/new_icc_rules_summary_they_are_preparing_for/)
|
||||
|
||||
Rules to protect the value of the market in general as best as possible
|
||||
|
||||
- SR-OCC-2021-004: Revisions to OCC's Auction Participation Requirements ✅\
|
||||
*The "Everyone can come to the feeding frenzy party when we liquidate one of you idiots" Rule.*\
|
||||
Allows more firms that were traditionally excluded from an auction of this type to now join in, probably making the market wide bleeding end sooner, and retain more value overall.\
|
||||
Filed 2021-03-19\
|
||||
Effective 2021-05-19\
|
||||
[src](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/mnpzu5/srocc2021004_why_this_proposed_rule_change_is/)
|
||||
|
||||
Non-regulation / Other Announcments
|
||||
|
||||
- Exchange Act Rule 15c3-3 Compliance Letter: Staff Statement on Fully Paid Lending ✅\
|
||||
*The "We're making you keep full collateral on hand for your shit, you've got six months to get it together" letter.*\
|
||||
Letter sent 2020-10-22\
|
||||
Effective 2021-04-22\
|
||||
[src](https://www.sec.gov/news/public-statement/staff-fully-paid-lending?utm_medium=email&utm_source=govdelivery)
|
||||
|
||||
- GOV-1085-21: DTCC / FICC White Paper Announcing WABR added as a Sponsored Member ✅\
|
||||
WABR Cayman Limited is a firm specializing in helping Institutional Sales Traders in times of "thin markets". [u/stellarEVH](https://www.reddit.com/u/stellarEVH/) explains:\
|
||||
*"When a company needs to quickly pay off their debts as in the case of a margin call, it can be challenging for them to gather all the money from their various investments. There are firms in place that are specialized in liquidating their portfolio in a manner to minimize market impact while they pay off their debt."*\
|
||||
Announced 2021-04-23\
|
||||
Effective 2021-04-29\
|
||||
[src](https://www.dtcc.com/-/media/Files/pdf/2021/4/23/GOV1085-21PDF.PDF), via [this post & comments](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/my1hio/friday_the_dtcc_approved_wabra_morgan_stanley/), linked from [It's Just a Bug, Bro Part 6 - Bug Spray Edition](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/myl37p/its_just_a_bug_bro_part_6_bug_spray_edition/)\
|
||||
[Additional info on who WABR is](https://reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/mz4oza/the_rabbit_hole_of_wabr_cayman_company_limited/) 👀 *Spidey senses are tingling*\
|
||||
*I love this community*
|
||||
|
||||
- MBS978-21: FICC Notice on MBSD Intraday Mark-to-Market Charge - Timing of Intraday Collection ✅\
|
||||
*We've been lenient for the past year cause shit was wack, but we're going back on that regular hourly assesment for margins.* "Starting on May 3, 2021, the fixed time of 1:00PM will be eliminated and the MBSD Intraday Mark-to-Market Charge will return to an hourly assessment." This combined with other things will tighten the screws.\
|
||||
[/u/stellarEVH](https://www.reddit.com/u/stellarEVH/) bringing that good good again: *"For example, it'll be much harder to short GameStop and/or trade in dark pools when you're expected to cover your margin every hour. For the last year, they've only needed to prove they were covered at 1pm."*\
|
||||
Notice Date 2021-04-21\
|
||||
Effective 2021-05-03\
|
||||
[src post](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/n3m0qu/the_mandatory_dtcc_common_stock_reallocation_for/), [explainer comment](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/n3m0qu/the_mandatory_dtcc_common_stock_reallocation_for/gwr8n2a?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3)
|
||||
|
||||
- OCC Notice 48718: TEMPORARY INCREASE TO CLEARING FUND SIZE ✅\
|
||||
*Yeah if you could give us some more of your money for a bit, that would be great.*\
|
||||
Yeah they used all caps, and gave 2 days notice before they would just go into members bank accounts to get that money. Must've needed it bad for the 19th, because it normally is just increased monthly on the 1st. Total increase was $588,378,155.\
|
||||
Notice Date 2021-05-17\
|
||||
Deposit by Date 2021-05-19 [by 9am](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nfz9xa/huge_crypto_dump_currently_things_are_hotting_up/).\
|
||||
[src](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nftyg4/occ_has_issued_a_statement_to_all_clearing/)
|
||||
|
||||
*(please help me fill in other important rules via comments)*
|
||||
|
||||
2 - Funding
|
||||
|
||||
Opinion - Status: Go for Launch ✅
|
||||
|
||||
To pay out for shares of GME
|
||||
|
||||
- [SHF Pulling money from crypt0](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bitcoin-doge-ethereum-ripple-price-monday-19-april-crypto-latest-081427050.html)
|
||||
|
||||
- SHF Pump and Dump on other stocks
|
||||
|
||||
- SHF Liquidate other Assets Under Management (market-wide dive on 2021-04-22?) [Citadel Sell-off?](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/n0fwx2/kenny_might_be_in_a_bit_of_a_pickle_right_now/)
|
||||
|
||||
- Wind Down and Recovery Strategies (SR-DTC-2021-004, SR-ICC-2021-005)
|
||||
|
||||
- *(other suggestions w/ sources wanted)*
|
||||
|
||||
Secure cash to buy up liquidated assets to prevent total market collapse
|
||||
|
||||
- [Big Banks do a Bond Sales](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/mu8a5m/6_out_of_the_7_top_listed_us_banks_have_made/), [Citigroup: "Me Too!"](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/mzvcli/citigroup_borrowing_55_billion_in_latest_bank/)
|
||||
|
||||
- Need plausible reasons for making those sales such as earnings report, or LIBOR to SOFR switch, or *insert wildcard like $50 Bil Football League*, etc ...
|
||||
|
||||
- Banks Re-Structuring / Netting [src](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/mur8bz/srdtc2021004_the_dtcc_and_jp_morgan_theyre/)
|
||||
|
||||
- [Wells Fargo to liquidate two of its trusts](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nh5ed7/wells_fargo_to_liquidate_two_of_its_trusts/)
|
||||
|
||||
- Rule SR-OCC-2021-004 allowing more players at the auction of the defaulting member's assets.
|
||||
|
||||
3 - Cover for Timing of Launch
|
||||
|
||||
Opinion - Status: No-Go for Launch ❌\
|
||||
*This will likely be the very last one, and we'll only know what they will use as an excuse once it's started. I think all the other pieces would need to be in place* (Narrator: They are.) *for them to feel most confident to light the fuse. This will be more oportunistic in nature, I think.*
|
||||
|
||||
I'm splitting this into 2 objectives: why GME is going up, and why the market in general is tanking.
|
||||
|
||||
GME Go BRRRRRRRRRRRR! Cover
|
||||
|
||||
Ideally a plausible Corporate or Market Event that the stock price "should" respond to in order to initiate upward price movement without the timing looking SUS AF and destabilizing the broader market due to fear of systemic problems and/or loss of public trust. These events are mostly out of the control of The System, and one will likely be the ignition.
|
||||
|
||||
- Corporate: ~~AGM Voting Proxy Release~~
|
||||
|
||||
- Corporate: ~~Quarterly Earnings (Q1 2021)~~
|
||||
|
||||
- Corporate: ~~CEO Announced~~
|
||||
|
||||
- Corporate: ~~AGM Vote Count + Board Elections~~
|
||||
|
||||
- Corporate: ~~RC Appointed as Chairman Official News~~
|
||||
|
||||
- Corporate: ~~New Cash Reserves from ATM Stock Offer~~
|
||||
|
||||
- Corporate: Dividend Issue / Stock Split
|
||||
|
||||
- Corporate: Major Partner Announcement
|
||||
|
||||
- Corporate: Possible NFT Announcement 2021-07-14?
|
||||
|
||||
- Market: Broader Retail Gains
|
||||
|
||||
- Market: $GME moves from Russell 2000 to Russell 1000 after close on 2021-06-25
|
||||
|
||||
- TBD / Unkown
|
||||
|
||||
Markets Go clank! Cover
|
||||
|
||||
Major policy announcements, world politics, regularly scheduled economic reports released... Pick your favorite here, cause they will and already have. This cover will justify why the markets are hemorhaging to hide the fact that positions are being liquidated to start paying for buying-back all those GME shares.
|
||||
|
||||
- Market: Global Supply Chain Issue
|
||||
|
||||
- Market: Liquidity Stress Tests
|
||||
|
||||
- [April 26th, 2021](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/mww2ah/dtcc_planning_liquidity_risk_testing_on_26th/)
|
||||
|
||||
- [May 13th, 2021](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/n763vq/dtcc_members_are_having_a_liquidity_check_may_13th/)
|
||||
|
||||
- Note: As far as I can tell, these happened yearly, typically in April/May, but only once... 2 back to back?
|
||||
|
||||
- Government: ~[POTUS joint address to Congress](https://apnews.com/article/joe-biden-nancy-pelosi-coronavirus-pandemic-267e753a5d1ab7a72d3274728b25f63c)\
|
||||
Green New Deal? Capital Gains Announcement: [similar to BS on 2021-04-22?](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-04-22/biden-to-propose-capital-gains-tax-as-high-as-43-4-for-wealthy)
|
||||
|
||||
- Government: [2021-05-06 Congressional Hearing with SEC / Gensler, DTCC / Bodson, FINRA / Cook.](https://financialservices.house.gov/news/documentsingle.aspx?DocumentID=407762)
|
||||
|
||||
- Government: [2021-05-26+27 Congressional Hearing with Big Banks](https://financialservices.house.gov/news/documentsingle.aspx?DocumentID=407740)
|
||||
|
||||
- Government: Monthly [Consumer Price Index numbers released](https://www.bls.gov/schedule/news_release/cpi.htm), next is June 13th
|
||||
|
||||
- Government: [US Treasury Stability Council Meeting June 11th](https://www.reuters.com/article/usa-treasury-stability-idUSL2N2N638S)\
|
||||
Possible platform for policy announcement? Typically hold 6 +/- a year, but this would be first of 2021 and was postponed from May 21st.
|
||||
|
||||
- Government: [US 2022 Fiscal Year Budget Proposal](https://www.reuters.com/world/us/biden-propose-6-trillion-us-budget-2022-fiscal-year-nyt-2021-05-27/)
|
||||
|
||||
- *(other suggestions wanted)*
|
||||
|
||||
4 - Fallguy, and the Lack of Prevention
|
||||
|
||||
Opinion - Status: Go for Launch ✅\
|
||||
*While they will likely have a fallguy decided upon prior to launch, I don't see it as a necessity that would delay it, certainly not like the Rules of Engagement or Funding would. I also think that nothing would keep them from changing the story if something else influences the narrative in an acceptable way shortly after liftoff.*
|
||||
|
||||
Blame!
|
||||
|
||||
After the market pain is significant enough that the public wants answers, why not lay all the blame on bad actors, and defer attention from the system to try to avoid additional exterior regulation.
|
||||
|
||||
- SHFs (now liquidated) as overly greedy and got what they deserved
|
||||
|
||||
- Retail (as Anarchists, or greedy and oportunistic)
|
||||
|
||||
- [Forbes article on January Gamma Squeeze](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/mvf7r3/forbes_reminder_as_we_hodl_towards_the_moass_gme/gvc5c8f/?context=3)
|
||||
|
||||
- Foreign Actors trying to destabilize the US Markets
|
||||
|
||||
- *(other suggestions w/ sources wanted)*
|
||||
|
||||
Control Public Image of the System via PR
|
||||
|
||||
- DTCC: ["We're doing a great job! Take our word for it!"](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/mvozps/dtcc_trying_to_get_ahead_of_the_story_the_most/?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share)
|
||||
|
||||
- DTCC: "We're announcing our plan to keep working on a plan to kind of band-aid a problem that's pretty bad and we've known about for awhile, and like we have definitely been talking about it and stuff, but now we're like really gonna talk about it using words like "in-depth analysis" cause up to now we were mostly just talking about it like how you tell that one friend *"yeah, we should totally hang out soon"* and then you never do, but not now cause we're serious now, and it's definitely not because we've gotta talk to the US Congress this week or anything. Like, honestly." AKA the announcement of [the DTCC's T+1 Settlement Plan.](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/n5b91j/dtcc_rolls_out_plan_and_faq_for_a_new_t1/)
|
||||
|
||||
* * * * *
|
||||
|
||||
...Meanwhile, at the SEC
|
||||
|
||||
"Let's at least *look* like we aren't asleep at the wheel here, lads"
|
||||
|
||||
- [Whistleblower Awards](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/mrfxvg/secgov_sec_awards_over_50_million_to_joint/)
|
||||
|
||||
- [47.4% of the Amount of all SEC Whistleblower Awards Ever Given Have Been Awarded in the Last 12 Months (Out of 105 Months of Program Activity)](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nf3n64/474_of_the_amount_of_all_sec_whistleblower_awards/)
|
||||
|
||||
- [Closed door meetings](https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/comments/mihiv9/another_sec_closed_door_meeting_scheduled_for_48/)
|
||||
|
||||
- [2021-05-27 Sunshine Act Meeting - Scheduled](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nhgh3i/sunshine_meeting_rescheduled_may_27/)
|
||||
|
||||
- These have been cancelled 4 out of 7 times... so far!
|
||||
|
||||
- Speech by SEC Commissioner Peirce inlcuding the line that the SEC is *"working on a report about the events related to meme stock trading earlier this year, and some regulatory initiatives may come out of that work."* and a few other statements about how the SEC shouldn't be concerned with firms loosing money... aka Tough Titties Archegos, et al.\
|
||||
[src post](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/n2ax63/something_apes_missed_read_this/)
|
||||
|
||||
- [SEC sues HF, filed 5/19/21- states NAKED SHORT SELLING is ILLEGAL and ask FOR a JULY TRIAL!!!](https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/comments/nhmaxw/sec_sues_hf_filed_51921_states_naked_short/)
|
||||
|
||||
Any and all additions you think may belong on this list, feel free to put in the comments, and I'll try to update and give credit where possible. If I got any of these wrong, or you've found better links that explain the rules, let me know in the comments and I'll make those edits.
|
||||
|
||||
Contributions noted where possible, and initial start from previous work on Recent Filings by [/u/Antioch_Orontes](https://www.reddit.com/u/Antioch_Orontes/) [here.](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/msh5mt/a_brief_overview_of_recent_filings_from_the_dtc/)
|
||||
|
||||
Looking for the TL;DR? It's at the top.
|
||||
|
||||
* * * * *
|
||||
|
||||
Buy. Hodl. Buckle Up.
|
||||
|
||||
... and make history.
|
||||
|
||||
🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀
|
||||
|
||||
Edit 2021-05-22:\
|
||||
Typos, add expected effective timeframe for DTC-2021-005. May 27th SEC Meeting Scheduled. SEC Lawsuit. Restructured the 3rd/Cover section to clarify for some comments and feedback about why I think cover is important. Also by now I've got plenty of reddit points/currency, so spend new money on GME!
|
||||
|
||||
Edit 2021-05-28:\
|
||||
SR-OCC-2021-003 approved. Add CPI release as market drop cover, US Treasury meeting, US Budget Proposal.
|
||||
|
||||
Edit 2021-06-21:\
|
||||
SR-DTC-005 approved and in effect, SR-NSCC-2021-002 / 801 approved. SR-DTC-2021-009 added. Updated expected timeline for SR-NSCC-2021-005
|
||||
|
||||
Edit 2021-06-23:\
|
||||
SR-DTC-2021-009 updated with additional info. Added move to Russell 1000 as possible cover story (thanks [u/godkyle11](https://reddit.com/user/godkyle11/) for the prompt). Updated section 3 to better illustrate corporate events now in the past.
|
@ -0,0 +1,34 @@
|
||||
Dark Pools, Price Discovery and Short Selling/Marking
|
||||
=====================================================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/dlauer](https://www.reddit.com/user/dlauer/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/o70lid/dark_pools_price_discovery_and_short/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
[DD 👨🔬](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22DD%20%F0%9F%91%A8%E2%80%8D%F0%9F%94%AC%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||
Recently, and since I've joined this sub-reddit, there have been a ton of questions around the role that Dark Pools play in US equity market structure. I wanted to put together a post to clarify some things about how they operate, what they do, and what they cannot do.
|
||||
|
||||
Dark pools were created as part of Regulation ATS (Alternative Trading System) in 1998. Originally they were predominantly ECNs (Electronic Crossing Networks), including ones you're familiar with today as exchanges such as Arca and Direct Edge. Ultimately though, most dark pools after Reg NMS was implemented in 2007 were either broker-owned (such as UBS, Goldman, Credit Suisse and JP Morgan, to name the top 4 DPs today) or independent block trading facilities, such as Liquidnet. Note that I am not discussing OTC trading, which is what Citadel and Virtu do to internalize retail trades. I'll talk about that in a bit.
|
||||
|
||||
To understand Dark Pools, and what makes them different from exchanges, you need to understand some regulatory nuances, and some market data characteristics. From a regulatory perspective, it is easier to get approval for a dark pool (regulated by FINRA), than an exchange (regulated by the SEC). This is on purpose - ATSs are supposed to be a way to foster competition and innovation. Unfortunately, that has resulted in 40+ dark pools and extreme off-exchange fragmentation.
|
||||
|
||||
Most dark pools are there ostensibly to allow institutional asset managers to post large orders that they do not want to be visible on an exchange. This is the fundamental difference between dark pools and exchanges - no orders are visible on dark pools (hence "dark"), whereas you can have visible orders on exchanges. Now, you can also have hidden orders on exchanges. And there's nothing preventing an ATS from posting quotes (Bloomberg used to do this on the FINRA ADF). However, generally speaking, today, there aren't dark pools that show any posted orders.
|
||||
|
||||
So what about trades? All trades in the national market system have to be printed to a SIP feed. It does not matter where they happen. And all trades during regular trading hours (9:30am - 4pm) MUST be within the NBBO. These are hard and fast rules that cannot be violated. All trades on exchanges are reported to the regular SIP. All trades that happen off exchange (ATS or OTC) are reported to the Trade Reporting Facility (TRF) run by NYSE, Nasdaq or FINRA (there are 3 of them). All trades have to be reported to the TRF within 10 seconds of being executed, though the reality is that they are reported nearly instantaneously:
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/32d06z9kn7771.png?width=827&format=png&auto=webp&s=726e2d7857e2bf6d1baeea21eff3e696127ed8d5)
|
||||
|
||||
There was a question on FOX and Twitter yesterday - can hedge funds "go short" in dark pools and not need to report it? I did not mean to be flippant in my tweet about how that is non-sensical, but I had a long day yesterday and had no brain power left. But such a statement is non-sensical. That's not how dark pools work.
|
||||
|
||||
There is practically no difference at all between trades executed on-exchange or off-exchange, especially when you're talking about reporting short positions or short sale marking. The rules are identical, regardless. Short-sale marking is not dependent on whether you trade on-exchange or off-exchange. I'm not trying to make a statement as to whether firms are doing it adequately or accurately, but there is no nexus with dark pools here. I also have never heard of this idea that firms will choose whether to execute on-exchange or off-exchange based on where they want "buying pressure" or "selling pressure" to show up. Every sophisticated trading firm out there is watching the TRF and categorizing every trade that takes place relative to the NBBO. Every time a trade happens at the ask (or near it) they characterize that as a buy. Every time a trade happens at the bid (or near it) they characterize it as a sell. You cannot hide what you are doing in dark pools or through OTC internalization - it cannot be done. All trades are public and reported within 10 seconds.
|
||||
|
||||
Here's what I think was trying to be said. If trades are taking place OTC, such as retail orders that are being internalized by Citadel or Virtu, both of those firms qualify as Market Makers. Market Makers DO have an exemption for short selling - they are allowed to do so without having located the shares first. However, they still have to mark those sales as "short" and they are still, under standard rules, required to ultimately locate those shares. Again, I'm not trying to get into whether there is naked shorting taking place, or whether these rules are being followed - that's a different conversation. I'm just trying to help you understand that dark pools are not nefarious, and that there is very little difference between dark pools and exchanges from a trading, position marking and reporting perspective.
|
||||
|
||||
Ok, so finally, to get to the meat of this - can you use dark pools and off-exchange trading to artificially hold down the price of a stock? I struggle to see the mechanism by which this can be done. I've never heard of it, other than here. As I've said several times, every trade needs to be reported. Every single retail trade that buys GME at the ask is reported to the tape. There's no hiding that. The only market manipulation I've ever studied and measured, and that has been subject to enforcement action by the SEC, has been on exchanges. That is done with layer and spoofing, or other manipulative practices such as banging the close. Retail buying pressure OTC will be picked up on by firms watching the tape, and it will also find its way on to exchanges as the internalizers need to lay off their inventory (they will accumulate shorts, and want to close out those positions). You might claim that this is where naked shorting comes in, but again that's a speculative leap, and really hard to imagine that firms that excel at risk management would put themselves in such a position. I'm not saying it doesn't happen - enforcement actions and lawsuits make it clear that this is an issue. But even if it does happen, the trades to open those short positions were printed to the tape for everyone to see - they cannot be hidden.
|
||||
|
||||
tldr; The only difference between dark pools and exchanges is that dark pools don't display quotes, where exchanges do. Dark pool trades are all publicly reported within 10 seconds. You cannot get around short sale marking and position reporting requirements based on where you trade (dark pool or exchange). I don't believe you can suppress the price of a stock through manipulation that only involves dark pools or off-exchange trading, as it is all publicly reported.
|
||||
|
||||
EDIT: Let me clear on something: There is WAY too much off-exchange trading. This harms markets. It acts as a disincentive to market makers on lit exchanges. I want market makers on exchanges to make money, and I want open competition for order flow. Off exchange trading is antithetical to those aims. It has its place for institutional orders. But the level of off exchange trading, especially in stocks traded heavily by retail such as GME is a symptom of a broken market structure with intractable conflicts-of-interest, such as PFOF. When the head of NYSE says that the NBBO isn't doing its job for price discovery, this is what she is referring to. If I, as a market maker, post a better bid on-exchange, and then suddenly a bunch of off-exchange trades happen at the price level I just created, then the off-exchange trades are free-riding my quote. They are taking no risk, and reaping the reward, while I take all the risk on-exchange and do not get the trade. That's a real problem in markets, and it's why I have pushed hard for rules to limit dark pool trading, such as you find in Canada, UK, Europe and other markets.
|
@ -0,0 +1,324 @@
|
||||
House of Cards - Part 2
|
||||
=======================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/atobitt](https://www.reddit.com/user/atobitt/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nlwaxv/house_of_cards_part_2/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
[DD 👨🔬](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22DD%20%F0%9F%91%A8%E2%80%8D%F0%9F%94%AC%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||
*Prerequisite DD:*
|
||||
|
||||
1. [Citadel Has No Clothes](https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/comments/m4c0p4/citadel_has_no_clothes/)
|
||||
|
||||
2. [The EVERYTHING Short](https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/comments/mgucv2/the_everything_short/)
|
||||
|
||||
3. [The House of Cards -- Part 1](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/mvk5dv/a_house_of_cards_part_1/)
|
||||
|
||||
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________
|
||||
|
||||
TL;DR- No freaking way I can do that.
|
||||
|
||||
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
|
||||
|
||||
1. Pilot
|
||||
|
||||
I wasn't looking into GameStop when all of this began. Most of my time was spent researching the pandemic's impact on the economy. I'm talking about the economic steam engine that employs people and puts food on their tables. Especially the small businesses that were executively steamrolled by COVID lockdowns. It was scary how fast they had to close their doors.
|
||||
|
||||
I spent a lot of time looking at companies like GameStop. Brick-n-mortar businesses were basically running out of bricks to sh*t. Frankly, GameStop looked a lot like the next Blockbuster and it just seemed like a matter of time before they went under. Had DFV not done his homework, it's possible we wouldn't have a rocket to HODL or a story to TODL.
|
||||
|
||||
Whoever has/had a short position with GameStop was probably thinking the same thing. The number of shares that can be freely traded on a daily basis is referred to as "the float". GameStop has 70,000,000 shares outstanding, but 50,000,000 shares represented "the float". With a small float like this, a [short position of 20% becomes significant](https://bullishbears.com/vw-short-squeeze/). Heck, Volkswagen got squozed with just a [12.8%](https://bullishbears.com/vw-short-squeeze/) short position. So let's use little numbers to walk through an example of how this works.
|
||||
|
||||
Assume VW has 100 shares outstanding. If 12.8% of the company has been sold short, then 12.8 shares (let's just say 13) must be available to purchase at a later date (assuming VW doesn't go bankrupt). However, VW had a float of 45% which meant there was no real strain to cover that 12.8% short position at any moment. However, when Porsche announced they wanted to increase their position in VW, they invested HEAVILY.
|
||||
|
||||
*"The kicker was that Porsche owned 43% of VW shares, 32% in options, and the government owned 20.2%.... In plain terms, it meant that the actual available float went from 45% down to 1% of outstanding shares" (bullishbears.com/vw-short-squeeze/).*
|
||||
|
||||
Let's revisit our scenario. With 100 shares outstanding and 13 shares sold short, what happens if only 1 share was available to cover instead of 45?
|
||||
|
||||
Well..... THIS:
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/c1n24ypq5k171.jpg?width=348&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=2401d50c3ec1197e08564be1ffbd643558e52b6a)
|
||||
|
||||
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________
|
||||
|
||||
GameStop is/was the victim of price suppression through short selling. I discussed this topic with [Dr. T](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fGVY2Kco8ng) and [Carl Hagberg](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KHnpPfWdf78) in [our AMAs.](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KHnpPfWdf78) Every transaction has two sides- a buy and a sell. Short selling artificially increases the *supply* of shares and causes the price to decline. When this happens, the price can only increase if *demand* exceeds the increase in supply.
|
||||
|
||||
I started looking closely at GameStop after confirming their reported short position of [140%](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-retail-trading-congress-shorting/short-selling-under-spotlight-in-gamestop-hearing-idUSKBN2AJ026). It's important for me explain this why this is so much different than the VW example...
|
||||
|
||||
140% of GameStop's FLOAT was sold short. There were 50,000,000 shares in that float, so 140% of this was equal to the 70,000,000 shares the company has outstanding. This means AT LEAST 100% of their outstanding shares has been sold short. Now compare that to VW where the short position was only 12.8%... Simply put, it is mathematically impossible to cover more than 100% of a company's outstanding stock.
|
||||
|
||||
The *peak* of the VW squeeze was reached when the demand for shares became surpassed by the supply of those shares. Here, demand represents 12.8% of their stock which must be available to close the short position. With only 1% of shares available, this guaranteed a squeeze until the number of shares available to trade could satisfy the remaining short interest.
|
||||
|
||||
When a company has a short position with more than 100% of total shares outstanding, the preceding argument is thrown out the window. Supply cannot surpass demand because the company can only issue 100% of itself at any given time. Therefore, the additional 40% could only be explained by multiple people claiming ownership of the same share... Surely this is a mistake.. right? I thought this level of short selling was impossible..
|
||||
|
||||
..Until I saw the number of short selling violations issued by FINRA..
|
||||
|
||||
As we go through these FINRA reports, there are a few things to keep in mind:
|
||||
|
||||
1. FINRA is not a part of the government. FINRA is a non-profit entity with [regulatory powers set by congress](https://www.finra.org/about). This makes FINRA the largest self-regulatory organization (SRO) in the United States. The SEC is responsible for setting rules which protect individual investors; FINRA is responsible for overseeing most of the brokers (collectively referred to as members) in the US. As an SRO, FINRA sets the rules by which their members must comply- they are not directly regulated by the SEC
|
||||
|
||||
2. FINRA investigates cases at their own pace. When looking at the "*Date Initiated"* on their reports, it is not synonymous with "*date of occurrence".* Many times, FINRA will not say when a problem occurred, just resolved. It can be YEARS after the initial occurrence. The [DTC participant report](https://www.dtcc.com/-/media/Files/Downloads/client-center/DTC/alpha.pdf) is littered with cases that were initiated in 2019 but occurred in 2015, etc. Many of the violations occurring today will take years to discover
|
||||
|
||||
3. FINRA can issue a violation for each occurrence using a 1:1 format. When it comes to violations like short selling, however, these "occurrences" can last months or even years. When this happens, FINRA issues a violation for multiple occurrences using a 1:MANY format. I discussed this event in [Citadel Has No Clothes](https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/comments/m4c0p4/citadel_has_no_clothes/) where one violation represented FOUR YEARS of market f*ckery. What's sh*tty is that FINRA doesn't tell you which violations are which. You have to read each line and see if they mention a date range of occurrence within each record. If they don't, you must assume it was for one event... BRUTAL
|
||||
|
||||
4. FINRA's investment portfolio is held by the same entities they are issuing violations to... Let that sink in for a minute
|
||||
|
||||
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________
|
||||
|
||||
2. State your case...
|
||||
|
||||
Can you think of a reason why short sellers would want to understate their short positions? Put yourself in their situation and imagine you're running a hedge fund...
|
||||
|
||||
You operate in a self-regulated (SRO) environment and your records are basically private. If the SEC asks you to justify suspicious behavior, you really don't have to provide it. The worst that could happen is a slap on the wrist. I wrote about this EXACT same thing in [Citadel Has No Clothes](https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/comments/m4c0p4/citadel_has_no_clothes/). They received a cease-and-desist order from the SEC on 12/10/2018 for failing to submit complete and accurate records. This 'occurred' from November 2012 through April 2016 and contained deficient information for over 80,000,000 trades. Their punishment... $3,500,000... So why even bother keeping an honest ledger?
|
||||
|
||||
Now, suppose you short a bunch of shares into the market. When you report this to FINRA, they require you to mark the transaction with a short sale indicator. In doing so, FINRA builds a paper trail to your short selling activity.
|
||||
|
||||
However... if you omit this indicator, FINRA can't distinguish that transaction from a long sale. Who else would there be to hold you accountable for covering your position? This is especially true for self-clearing organizations like Citadel because there are less parties involved to hold you accountable with recordkeeping. If FINRA thinks you physically owned those shares and sold them (long sale), they have no reason to revisit that transaction in the future... You could literally pocket the cash and dump the commitment to cover.
|
||||
|
||||
Another very important advantage is that it allows short sellers to artificially increase the supply of shares while understating the outstanding short interest on that security. The supply of shares being sold will drive down the price, while the short interest on the stock remains the same.
|
||||
|
||||
So.. aside from paying a fine, how could you possibly lose by "forgetting" to mark that trade with a short sale indicator? It would seem the system almost incentivizes this type of behavior.
|
||||
|
||||
I combed through the [DTC participant report](https://www.dtcc.com/-/media/Files/Downloads/client-center/DTC/alpha.pdf) and found enough dirt to fill the empty chasm that is Ken Griffin's soul. Take a guess at what their most common short selling violation is.. I'm going to assume you said "FAILING TO PROPERLY MARK A SHORT SALE TRANSACTION".
|
||||
|
||||
For the record, I just want to say I called this in March when I wrote [Citadel Has No Clothes](https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/comments/m4c0p4/citadel_has_no_clothes/). Citadel has one of the highest concentrations of short selling violations in their FINRA report. At the time, I didn't fully understand the consequences of this violation... After seeing how many participants received the same penalty, it finally made sense.
|
||||
|
||||
There are roughly 240 participant account names on the DTC's list. Sh*t you not, I looked at every short selling violation that was published on [Brokercheck.finra.org](https://brokercheck.finra.org/). To be fair, I eliminated participants with only 1 or 2 violations related to short selling. There were PLENTY of bigger fish to fry.
|
||||
|
||||
I literally picked the first participant at the top of the list and found three violations for short selling.
|
||||
|
||||
*cracks knuckles*
|
||||
|
||||
[ABN AMRO Clearing Chicago LLC](https://files.brokercheck.finra.org/firm/firm_14020.pdf) (AACC) is the 3rd largest bank in the Netherlands. They got popped for three short selling violations, one of which included a failure-to-deliver. In total, they have 78 violations from FINRA. Several of these are severe compared to their violations for short selling. However, the short selling violations revealed a MUCH bigger story:
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/3t5ylyfz5k171.jpg?width=1055&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=f961999d09eeee7fbe42364700cbc727869f9e3f)
|
||||
|
||||
So... ABN AMRO submitted an inaccurate short interest position to the NYSE and FINRA and lacked the proper supervisory systems to comply with... practically everything...
|
||||
|
||||
In 2014, AMRO forked over $95,000 to settle this and didn't even say they were sorry.
|
||||
|
||||
In these situations, it's easy to think *"meh, could have been a fluke event"*. So I took a closer look and found violations by the same participants which made it much harder to argue their case of sheer negligence. Here are a couple for AMRO:
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/vir299076k171.jpg?width=1079&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=e17e6ceff040a4be0113c1bc4e435f29fb5ce0a6)
|
||||
|
||||
ABN AMRO got slapped with a $1,000,000 fine for understating capital requirements, failing to maintain accurate books, and failing to supervise employees. If you mess up once or twice but end up fixing the problem- GREAT. When your primary business is to clear trades and you fail THIS bad, there is a much bigger problem going on. It gets hard to defend this as an accident when every stage of the trade recording process is fundamentally flawed. The following screenshot came from the same violation:
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/mnpm2gz96k171.jpg?width=733&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=7e5c66293566b7ca2329f20bcdb634c35395943f)
|
||||
|
||||
[Warehouse receipts](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/w/warehousereceipt.asp#:~:text=A%20warehouse%20receipt%20is%20used,well%20as%20provide%20inventory%20management.) are like the receipts you get after buying lumber online. You can print these out and take them to Home-Depot, where you exchange them for the ACTUAL lumber in the store. Instead of trading the actual goods, you can trade a warehouse receipt instead... so yeah... since this ONE record allowed AMRO to meet their customer's margin requirement, it seems EXTREMELY suspicious that they didn't appropriately remove it once they were withdrawn.
|
||||
|
||||
Do I think this was an accident? F*ck no. Because FINRA reported them 8 years later for doing the SAME F*CKING THING:
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/sv0v5igw6k171.jpg?width=1071&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=02f17082135c702fad6bbc064073ae031151cee7)
|
||||
|
||||
Once again, AMRO got caught understating their margin requirements. Last time, they used the value of withdrawn warehouse receipts to meet their margin requirements. Here, they're using securities which weren't eligible for margin to meet their margin requirements..
|
||||
|
||||
You can paint apple orange, but it's still an apple..
|
||||
|
||||
The bullsh*t I read about in these reports doesn't really shock me anymore. It's actually the opposite.. You begin to *expect* bigger fines as they set higher benchmarks for misconduct. When I find a case like AMRO, I'll usually put more time into it because certain citations represent puzzle pieces. Once you find enough pieces, you can see the bigger picture. So believe me when I say I was genuinely shocked by the [detail report](https://www.finra.org/sites/default/files/fda_documents/2016049875801%20ABN%20AMRO%20Clearing%20Chicago%20LLC%20CRD%2014020%20AWC%20va%20%282019-1572740384682%29.pdf) on this case...
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/4lgyti547k171.jpg?width=844&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=633a928d28caef8cc6719873532aef60f271cefb)
|
||||
|
||||
This has been going on for 8 F*CKING YEARS!?
|
||||
|
||||
Without a doubt, this is a great example of a violation where the misconduct supposedly *ended* in 2015 but took another 4 years for FINRA to publish the d*mn report. If my math is correct, the 8 year "relevant period" plus the 4 years FINRA spent... I don't know... reviewing?... yields a total of 12 years. In other words, from the time this problem started to the time it was publicized by FINRA, the kids in 1st grade had graduated high school...
|
||||
|
||||
Does anyone else think these self-regulatory organizations (SROs) are doing a terrible job self-regulating...? How we can trust these situations are appropriately monitored if it takes 12 years for a sh*t blossom to bloom?
|
||||
|
||||
...OH! I almost forgot... After understating their margin requirements in 22 accounts for over 8 years, ABN AMRO paid a $150,000 fine to settle the dust...
|
||||
|
||||
____________________________________________________________________________________________________
|
||||
|
||||
I know that was a sh*t load of information so let me summarize it for you:
|
||||
|
||||
One of the most common citations occurs when a firm "accidently" marks a short sale as long, or misreports short interest positions to FINRA. When a short sale occurs, that transaction should be marked with a short sale indicator. Despite this, many participants do it to avoid the borrow requirements set by Regulation SHO. If they mark a short sale as long, they are not required to locate a borrow because FINRA doesn't know it's a short sale.
|
||||
|
||||
This is why so many of these FINRA violations include a statement about the broker failing to locate a borrow along with the failure to mark a short sale indicator on the transaction. It literally means the broker was naked short selling a stock and telling FINRA they physically owned that share..
|
||||
|
||||
Suddenly, a "small" violation had much bigger implications. The number of short shares that have been excluded from the short interest calculation is directly related to these violations... and there are HUNDREDS of them. Who knows how many companies have under reported short interest positions..
|
||||
|
||||
To be clear, I did NOT choose them based on the amount of 'dirt' they had. AMRO's violations were like grains of sand on a beach and It's going to take A LOT of dirt to fill the bottomless pit that is Ken Griffin's soul. Frankly, ABN AMRO wouldn't get us there with 10,000 FINRA violations. So without further ado, let's get dirty..
|
||||
|
||||
____________________________________________________________________________________________________
|
||||
|
||||
2. Call em' out...
|
||||
|
||||
When FINRA publishes one of their reports, the granular details like numbers and dates are often left out. This makes it impossible to determine how systematic a particular issue might be.
|
||||
|
||||
For example, if you know that *"XYZ failed to comply with FINRA's short interest reporting requirements"* your only conclusion is that the violation occurred. However, if you know that *"XYZ failed to comply with FINRA's short interest reporting requirements on 15,000 transactions during 2020"* you can start investigating the magnitude of that violation. If XYZ only completed 100,000 transactions in 2020, it means 15% of their transactions failed to meet requirements. This represents a major systematic risk to XYZ and the parties it conducts business with.
|
||||
|
||||
I spent some time analyzing [Apex Clearing Corporation](https://files.brokercheck.finra.org/firm/firm_13071.pdf) after I left ABN AMRO. Apex is 8th on the list and the 2nd participant I found with an evident short selling problem.
|
||||
|
||||
In 2019, FINRA initiated a case against Apex for doing the same sh*t as ABN AMRO. However, the magnitude of this violation really put things into perspective: I got a small taste of how f*cked this house of cards truly is..
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/u1b4zh6m7k171.jpg?width=1076&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=0f14f5fa49e73dad79ff605464fc1c64fa73f5bd)
|
||||
|
||||
This is practically a template of the first ABN AMRO violation we discussed. To see the difference, we need to look at their [letter of Acceptance, Waiver and Consent](https://www.finra.org/sites/default/files/fda_documents/2016049448301%20Apex%20Clearing%20Corporation%20CRD%2013071%20AWC%20va%20%282019-1573777189509%29.pdf) (AWC)..
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/zaiywobp7k171.jpg?width=938&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=7fe2d2323e757efcdedf2ab22aa1ff34e10d7d55)
|
||||
|
||||
Let's break this down step-by-step...
|
||||
|
||||
Apex had an issue for 47 months where certain customers recorded their short positions in an account which was NOT being sent to FINRA. It only takes a few wrinkles on the brain to realize this is a problem. The sample data tells us just how bad that problem is..
|
||||
|
||||
When you see the term "*settlement days",* think "[T+2](https://www.schwab.com/resource-center/insights/content/stock-settlement-why-you-need-to-understand-t2-timeline#:~:text=the%20seller's%20account.-,When%20does%20settlement%20occur%3F,would%20typically%20settle%20on%20Wednesday.)". Apex follows the T+2 settlement period for both [cash accounts and margin accounts](https://www.apexclearing.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/Apex-Customer-Information-Brochure-2019.pdf) which means the trade *should* clear 2 days after the original trade date. When you buy stock on a Monday, it should settle by Wednesday.
|
||||
|
||||
Ok.. quick maff...
|
||||
|
||||
There are roughly [252 trading days](https://therobusttrader.com/how-many-trading-days-are-there-in-a-year/) in one year after removing weekends and holidays. Throughout the 47 month "review period", we can safely assume that Apex had roughly 987 ((252/ 12) * 47) settlement dates...
|
||||
|
||||
In other words: 256 misstated reports over 47 months is more than 1 misstatement / week for nearly 4 years. Tell me again how this is *trivial?*
|
||||
|
||||
The wording of the "sample settlement" section is a bit ambiguous... It doesn't clarify if those were the only 2 settlement dates they sampled, or if they were the only settlement dates with reportable issues. Honestly, I would be shocked if it was the latter because auditors don't examine every record, but I can't be certain...
|
||||
|
||||
Anyway... FINRA discovered 256 short interest positions, consisting of 481,195 shares, were *incorrectly* excluded from their short interest report. In addition, they understated the share count by 879,321 in 130 separate short interest positions. Together, this makes 1,360,516 shares that were excluded from the short interest calculation. When you realize nearly 1.5 million 'excluded' shares were discovered in just 2 settlement periods and there were almost 1,000 dates to choose from, it seriously dilates the imagination...
|
||||
|
||||
Once again... FINRA wiped the slate clean for just $140,000...
|
||||
|
||||
I want to talk about one last thing before we jump to the next section. Did you happen to notice the different account types that Apex discussed in their [letter of Acceptance, Waiver and Consent](https://www.finra.org/sites/default/files/fda_documents/2016049448301%20Apex%20Clearing%20Corporation%20CRD%2013071%20AWC%20va%20%282019-1573777189509%29.pdf) ? They specifically instructed their customers to book short positions into a TYPE 1 (CASH) account, or TYPE 5 (SHORT MARGIN) account. A short margin account is just a margin account that holds short positions. The margin requirement for short positions are more strict than regular margin accounts, so I can see the advantage in separating them.
|
||||
|
||||
In the [AMA with Wes Christian](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2rJujnpKiqM) *(starting at 7:30)*, he specifically discussed how a broker-dealer's margin account is used to locate shares for short sellers. However, the margin account contains shares that were previously pledged to another party. Given the lack of oversight in securities lending, the problem keeps compounding each time a new borrower claims ownership of that share.
|
||||
|
||||
Now think back to the situation with Apex..
|
||||
|
||||
They asked their customers to book short positions to a short-margin account or a cash account. The user agreement with a margin account allows Apex to continue lending those securities at any time. As discussed with Dr. T and Carl Hagberg, the broker collects interest for lending your margin shares and doesn't pay you anything in return. When multiple locates are authorized for the same share, the broker collects multiple lending fees on the same share.
|
||||
|
||||
In contrast, the cash account falls under the protection of [SEA 15c3-3](https://www.finra.org/sites/default/files/SEA.Rule_.15c3-3.pdf) and consists of shares that have not been leveraged- or lent- like the margin-short account. According to Wes *(starting at 8:30)*, these shares are segregated and cannot be touched. The broker cannot encumber-or restrict- them in any way. However, according to Wes, this is currently happening. He also explained how Canada has legalized this and currently allows broker-dealers to short sell your cash account shares against you.
|
||||
|
||||
____________________________________________________________________________________________________
|
||||
|
||||
Alright.... I'll stop beating the dead horse regarding short sale indicators & inaccurate submissions of short interest positions. Given the volume of citations we haven't discussed, I'll summarize some of my findings, below.
|
||||
|
||||
Keep in mind these are ONLY for "FAILURE TO REPORT SHORT INTEREST POSITIONS" or "FAILURE TO INDICATE A SHORT SALE MODIFIER". If the violations contain additional information, it's because that citation actually listed additional information. It does NOT represent an all-inclusive list of short selling violations for these participants.
|
||||
|
||||
...You wanted to know how systematic this problem is, so here you go... *(EACH BROKER-DEALER NAME IS HYPERLINKED TO THEIR FINRA REPORT)*
|
||||
|
||||
1. [Barclays](https://files.brokercheck.finra.org/firm/firm_19714.pdf) | Disclosure 36 -- "SUBMITTED 86 SHORT INTEREST POSITIONS TOTALING 41,100,154 SHARES WHEN THE ACTUAL SHORT INTEREST POSITION WAS 44,535,151 SHARES.. FAILED TO REPORT 8 SHORT INTEREST POSITIONS TOTALING 1,110,420 SHARES"
|
||||
|
||||
a. $10,000 FINE
|
||||
|
||||
2\. [Barclays](https://files.brokercheck.finra.org/firm/firm_19714.pdf) | Disclosure 54 -- "SUBMITTED AN INACCURATE SHORT INTEREST POSITION TO FINRA AND FAILED TO REPORT ITS SHORT INTEREST POSITIONS IN 835 POSITIONS TOTALING 87,562,328 SHARES"
|
||||
|
||||
a. $155,000 FINE
|
||||
|
||||
3\. [BMO Capital Markets Corp](https://files.brokercheck.finra.org/firm/firm_16686.pdf) | Disclosure 23 -- "SUBMITTED SHORT INTEREST POSITIONS TO FINRA THAT WERE INCORRECT AND FAILED TO REPORT TO FINRA ITS SHORT INTEREST POSITIONS TOTALING OVER 72 MILLION SHARES FOR 11 MONTHS"
|
||||
|
||||
a. $90,000 FINE
|
||||
|
||||
4\. [BNP Paribas Securities Corp](https://files.brokercheck.finra.org/firm/firm_15794.pdf) | Disclosure 53 -- "FAILED TO REPORT TO FINRA ITS SHORT INTEREST IN 2,509 POSITIONS TOTALING 6,051,974 SHARES"
|
||||
|
||||
a. $30,000 FINE
|
||||
|
||||
5\. [BNP Paribas Securities Corp](https://files.brokercheck.finra.org/firm/firm_15794.pdf) | Disclosure 9 -- "ON 35 OCCASIONS OVER A FOUR-MONTH PERIOD, A HEDGE FUND SUBMITTED SALE ORDERS MARKED "LONG" TO BNP FOR CLEARING. FOR EACH OF THOSE "LONG" SALES, ON THE MORNING OF SETTLEMENT, THE HEDGE FUND DID NOT HAVE THE SHARES IN IT'S BNP ACCOUNT TO COVER THE SALE ORDER. IN ADDITION, BNP WAS ROUTINELY NOTIFIED THAT THE HEDGE FUND WOULD NOT BE ABLE TO COVER. NEVERTHELESS, WHEN EACH SETTLEMENT DATE ARRIVED AND THE HEDGE FUND WAS UNABLE TO COVER, BNP LOANED THE SHARES TO THE HEDGE FUND. IN TOTAL, BNP LOANED MORE THAN 8,000,000 SHARES TO COVER THESE PURPORTED "LONG" SALES"
|
||||
|
||||
a. $250,000 FINE
|
||||
|
||||
6\. [Cantor Fitzgerald & Co](https://files.brokercheck.finra.org/firm/firm_134.pdf) | Disclosure 1 - (literally came out on 5/6/2021) -- "THE FIRM SUBMITTED INACCURATE SHORT INTEREST POSITIONS TO FINRA. THE FIRM OVERREPORTED NEARLY [55,000,000 SHORT SHARES](https://www.finra.org/sites/default/files/fda_documents/2018059464001%20Cantor%20Fitzgerald%20%26%20Co.%20CRD%20134%20AWC%20va.pdf) WHICH WERE CUSTODIED WITH AND ALREADY REPORTED BY ITS CLEARING FIRM, WITH WHICH CANTOR MAINTAINS A FULLY DISCLOSED CLEARING AGREEMENT"
|
||||
|
||||
a. $250,000 FINE
|
||||
|
||||
7\. [Cantor Fitzgerald & Co](https://files.brokercheck.finra.org/firm/firm_134.pdf) | Disclosure 31 - "...THE FIRM EXECUTED NUMEROUS SHORT SALE ORDERS AND FAILED TO PROPERLY MARK THE ORDERS AS SHORT... THE FIRM, ON NUMEROUS OCCASIONS, ACCEPTED SHORT SALE ORDERS IN AN EQUITY SECURITY FROM ANOTHER PERSON, OR EFFECTED A SHORT SALE FROM ITS OWN ACCOUNT WITHOUT BORROWING THE SECURITY..."
|
||||
|
||||
a. $53,500 FINE
|
||||
|
||||
8\. [Cantor Fitzgerald & Co](https://files.brokercheck.finra.org/firm/firm_134.pdf) | Disclosure 33 - "...EXECUTED SHORT SALE ORDERS AND FAILED TO PROPERLY MARK THE ORDERS AS SHORT. THE FIRM HAD FAIL-TO-DELIVER POSITIONS AT A REGISTERED CLEARING AGENCY IN THRESHOLD SECURITIES FOR 13 CONSECUTIVE SETTLEMENT DAYS... FAILED TO IMMEDIATELY CLOSE OUT FTD POSITIONS... ACCEPTED SHORT SALE ORDERS FROM ANOTHER PERSON, OR EFFECTED A SHORT SALE FROM ITS OWN ACCOUNT, WITHOUT BORROWING THE SECURITY OR HAVING REASONABLE GROUNDS TO BELIEVE THAT THE SECURITY COULD BE BORROWED..."
|
||||
|
||||
a. $125,000 FINE
|
||||
|
||||
9\. [Canaccord Genuity Corp](https://files.brokercheck.finra.org/firm/firm_1020.pdf) | Disclosure 17 - "THE FIRM EXECUTED SALE TRANSACTIONS AND FAILED TO REPORT EACH OF THESE TRANSACTIONS TO THE FINRA/NASDAQ TRADE REPORTING FACILITY AS SHORT"
|
||||
|
||||
a. $57,500 FINE
|
||||
|
||||
10\. [Canaccord Genuity Corp](https://files.brokercheck.finra.org/firm/firm_1020.pdf) | Disclosure 20 - "THE FIRM EXECUTED SHORT SALE ORDERS AND FAILED TO PROPERLY MARK THE ORDERS AS SHORT"
|
||||
|
||||
a. $27,500 FINE
|
||||
|
||||
11\. [Canaccord Genuity Corp](https://files.brokercheck.finra.org/firm/firm_1020.pdf) | Disclosure 31 - "...SUBMITTED TO NASD MONTHLY SHORT INTEREST POSITION REPORTS THAT WERE INACCURATE"
|
||||
|
||||
a. $85,000 FINE
|
||||
|
||||
12\. Citadel Securities LLC | [Citadel Has No Clothes](https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/comments/m4c0p4/citadel_has_no_clothes/) -- LITERALLY ALL I TALK ABOUT IN THAT POST. GO READ IT
|
||||
|
||||
13\. [Citigroup Global Markets](https://files.brokercheck.finra.org/firm/firm_7059.pdf) | Disclosure 10 -- "THE FIRMS TRADING PLATFORM FAILED TO RECOGNIZE THAT THE FIRM WAS SELLING SHORT WHEN IT WAS ACTING AS THE CONTRA PARTY TO A CUSTOMER TRADE. AS A RESULT, THE FIRM ERRONEOUSLY REPORTED SHORT SALES TO A FINRA TRADE REPORTING FACILITY AS LONG SALES... EFFECTING SHORT SALES FROM ITS OWN ACCOUNT WITHOUT BORROWING THE SECURITY..."
|
||||
|
||||
a. $225,000 FINE
|
||||
|
||||
14\. [Citigroup Global Markets](https://files.brokercheck.finra.org/firm/firm_7059.pdf) | Disclosure 59 -- "...THE FIRM RECORDED 203,653 SHORT SALE EXECUTIONS ON ITS BOOKS AND RECORDS AS LONG SALES, SUBMITTED INACCURATE ORDER ORIGINATION CODES AND ACCOUNT TYPE CODES TO THE AUDIT TRAIL SYSTEM FOR APPROXIMATELY 2,775,338 ORDERS... "
|
||||
|
||||
a. $300,000 FINE
|
||||
|
||||
15\. [Citigroup Global Markets](https://files.brokercheck.finra.org/firm/firm_7059.pdf) | Disclosure 76 -- "...FAILED TO PROPERLY MARK APPROXIMATELY 9,717,875 SALE ORDERS AS SHORT SALES... FINDINGS ALSO ESTIMATED THAT THE FIRM ENTERED 55 MILLION ORDERS INTO THE NASDAQ MARKET CENTER THAT IT FAILED TO CORRECTLY INDICATE AS SHORT SALES..."
|
||||
|
||||
a. $2,250,000 FINE
|
||||
|
||||
16\. [Cowen and Company LLC](https://files.brokercheck.finra.org/firm/firm_7616.pdf) | Several Disclosures -- almost every other disclosure is for failing to mark a sale with the appropriate indicator, including short AND long sale indicators
|
||||
|
||||
17\. [Credit Suisse Securities LLC](https://files.brokercheck.finra.org/firm/firm_816.pdf) | Disclosure 34 -- "NEW ORDER REPORTS WERE INACCURATELY ENTERED INTO ORDER AUDIT TRAIL SYSTEM (OATS) AS LONG SALES BUT WERE TRADE REPORTED WITH A SHORT SALE INDICATOR"
|
||||
|
||||
a. $50,000 FINE
|
||||
|
||||
18\. [Credit Suisse Securities LLC](https://files.brokercheck.finra.org/firm/firm_816.pdf) | Disclosure 95 -- "BETWEEN SEPTEMBER 2006 AND JUNE 2008, CREDIT SUISSE FAILED TO SUBMIT ACCURATE PERIODIC REPORTS WITH RESPECT TO SHORT POSITIONS..."
|
||||
|
||||
a. $40,000 FINE
|
||||
|
||||
19\. [Deutsche Bank Securities INC.](https://files.brokercheck.finra.org/firm/firm_2525.pdf) | Disclosure 50 -- "THE FIRM FAILED TO REPORT SHORT INTEREST POSITIONS IN DUALLY-LISTED SECURITIES"
|
||||
|
||||
a. $200,000 FINE
|
||||
|
||||
20\. [Deutsche Bank Securities INC.](https://files.brokercheck.finra.org/firm/firm_2525.pdf) | Disclosure 52 -- "THE FIRM... EXPERIENCED MULTIPLE PROBLEMS WITH ITS BLUE SHEET SYSTEM THAT CAUSED IT TO SUBMIT INACCURATE BLUE SHEETS TO THE SEC AND FINRA... INCORRECTLY REPORTED LONG ON ITS BLUE SHEET TRANSACTIONS WHEN CERTAIN TRANSACTIONS SHOULD HAVE BEEN MARKED SHORT"
|
||||
|
||||
a. $6,000,000 FINE (SEVERAL OTHER ISSUES REPORTED IN ADDITION TO SHORTS)
|
||||
|
||||
21\. [Deutsche Bank Securities INC.](https://files.brokercheck.finra.org/firm/firm_2525.pdf) | Disclosure 58 -- "BETWEEN JANUARY 2005 AND CONTINUING THROUGH NOVEMBER 2015, THE FIRM IMPROPERLY INCLUDED THE AGGREGATION OF NET POSITIONS IN CERTAIN SECURITIES OF A NON-US BROKER AFFILIATE... IN ADDITION... DURING THE PERIOD BETWEEN APRIL 2004 AND SEPTEMBER 2012, THE FIRM INAPPROPRIATELY REPORTED CERTAIN SHORT INTEREST POSITIONS ON A NET, INSTEAD OF GROSS, BASIS.."
|
||||
|
||||
a. $1,400,000 FINE
|
||||
|
||||
22\. [Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC](https://files.brokercheck.finra.org/firm/firm_361.pdf) | Disclosure 32 -- "THE FIRM REPORTED SHORT SALE TRANSACTIONS TO FINRA TRADE REPORTING FACILITY WITHOUT THE REQUIRED SHORT SALE MODIFIER"
|
||||
|
||||
a. $260,000 FINE (SEVERAL OTHER ISSUES REPORTED IN ADDITION TO SHORTS)
|
||||
|
||||
23\. [Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC](https://files.brokercheck.finra.org/firm/firm_361.pdf) | Disclosure 54 -- "FAILED TO ACCURATELY APPEND THE SHORT SALE INDICATOR TO FINRA/NASDAQ TRADE REPORTING FACILITY REPORTS... INACCURATELY MARKED SELL TRANSACTIONS ON ITS TRADING LEDGER"
|
||||
|
||||
a. $55,000 FINE
|
||||
|
||||
24\. [Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC](https://files.brokercheck.finra.org/firm/firm_361.pdf) | Disclosure 63 -- "...SUBMITTED TO FINRA AND THE SEC BLUE SHEETS THAT INACCURATELY REPORTED CERTAIN SHORT SALE TRANSACTIONS AS LONG SALE TRANSACTIONS WITH RESPECT TO THE FIRM SIDE OF CUSTOMER FACILITATION TRADES... THE FIRM REPORTED SHORT SALES AS LONG SALES ON ITS BLUE SHEETS WHEN THE TRADING DESK USED A PARTICULAR MIDDLE OFFICE SYSTEM..."
|
||||
|
||||
a. $1,000,000 FINE
|
||||
|
||||
25\. [Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC](https://files.brokercheck.finra.org/firm/firm_361.pdf) | Disclosure 150 -- "GOLDMAN SACHS & CO. FAILED TO REPORT SHORT INTEREST POSITIONS FOR FOREIGN SECURITIES AND NUMEROUS SHARES ONE MONTH... THE FIRM REPORTED SHORT INTEREST POSITIONS IN SECURITIES TOTALING SEVERAL MILLION SHARES EACH TIME WHEN THE ACTUAL SHORT INTEREST POSITIONS IN THE SECURITIES WERE ZERO SHARES... ACCEPTING A SHORT SALE ORDER IN AN EQUITY SECURITY FROM ANOTHER PERSON, OR EFFECTED A SHORT SALE FROM ITS OWN ACCOUNT, WITHOUT BORROWING THE SECURITY OR BELIEVING THE SECURITY COULD BE BORROWED ON THE DATE OF DELIVERY..."
|
||||
|
||||
a. $120,000 FINE
|
||||
|
||||
26\. [Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC](https://files.brokercheck.finra.org/firm/firm_361.pdf) | Disclosure 167 -- "...THE FIRM FAILED TO REPORT TO THE NMC THE CORRECT SYMBOL INDICATING THAT THE TRANSACTION WAS A SHORT SALE FOR TRANSACTIONS IN REPORTABLE SECURITIES..."
|
||||
|
||||
a. $600,000 FINE (SEVERAL OTHER ISSUES REPORTED IN ADDITION TO SHORTS)
|
||||
|
||||
27\. [HSBC Securities (USA) INC.](https://files.brokercheck.finra.org/firm/firm_19585.pdf) | Disclosure 26 -- "FIRM EXECUTED SHORT SALE TRANSACTIONS AND FAILED TO MARK THEM AS SHORT... HSBC SECURITIES HAD A FAIL-TO-DELIVER SECURITY FOR 13 CONSECUTIVE SETTLEMENT DAYS AND FAILED TO IMMEDIATELY CLOSE OUT THE FTD POSITION... THE FIRM CONTINUED TO HAVE A FTD IN THE SECURITY AT A CLEARING AGENCY ON 79 ADDITIONAL SETTLEMENT DAYS..."
|
||||
|
||||
a. $65,000 FINE
|
||||
|
||||
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________
|
||||
|
||||
I'm going to stop at 'H' because I'm tired of writing. Hopefully, you all understand the point so far. We're only 8 letters into the alphabet and have successfully buried Ken to his waist.
|
||||
|
||||
The system that is used to mark the proper transaction type (sell, buy, short sell, short sell exempt, etc.) is obviously broken... There, I said it.. the system is INDUBITABLY, UNDOUBTEDLY, INEVITABLY F*CKED..
|
||||
|
||||
Regardless of the cause- fraud or negligence- there are too many firms failing to accomplish a seemingly simple task. The consequences of which are creating far more shares than we can imagine. It's a gigantic domino effect. If you fail to properly mark 1,000,000 short shares and a year goes by without catching the problem, it's already too late. They're like the f*cking replicators from Stargate..
|
||||
|
||||
In each of the examples listed above, the short interest on the stock was understated by the number of shares excluded... and that was just a handful..
|
||||
|
||||
Knowing this, how can someone look at the evidence and say it's *trivial....?*
|
||||
|
||||
No one really knows HOW systematic this issue is because it is so deeply incorporated in the market that it has BECOME the system itself. Therefore, there is obviously something much deeper going on, here.. How does one argue against the severity of these problems after reading this? There are FAR too many things that don't make sense and FAR too many people turning a blind eye..
|
||||
|
||||
The only conclusion I keep coming back to is that the people with money know what's going on and are desperately trying to keep it under wraps..
|
||||
|
||||
..So.... In an effort to prove this, I looked for violations that showed their desperation to protect this f*cked up system.
|
||||
|
||||
..Buckle up..
|
||||
|
||||
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________
|
||||
|
||||
*HOUSE OF CARDS - PART 3 (I'm uploading it now; will link ASAP)*
|
@ -0,0 +1,140 @@
|
||||
House of Cards - Part 3
|
||||
=======================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/atobitt](https://www.reddit.com/user/atobitt/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nlwqyv/house_of_cards_part_3/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
[DD 👨🔬](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22DD%20%F0%9F%91%A8%E2%80%8D%F0%9F%94%AC%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||
*Prerequisite DD:*
|
||||
|
||||
1. [Citadel Has No Clothes](https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/comments/m4c0p4/citadel_has_no_clothes/)
|
||||
|
||||
2. [The EVERYTHING Short](https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/comments/mgucv2/the_everything_short/)
|
||||
|
||||
3. [The House of Cards -- Part 1](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/mvk5dv/a_house_of_cards_part_1/)
|
||||
|
||||
4. [The House of Cards - Part 2](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nlwaxv/house_of_cards_part_2/)
|
||||
|
||||
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________
|
||||
|
||||
TL;DR- No freaking way I can do that.
|
||||
|
||||
_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
|
||||
|
||||
Continuing from HOC Part II...
|
||||
|
||||
4. Slimy...
|
||||
|
||||
If you watched the [AMA with Wes Christian](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2rJujnpKiqM), he talks about the number of occurrences where the actual short interest is severely understated based on the data his firm obtained for legal proceedings. According to his numbers, in most cases the short interest is 50% - 150% MORE than what is reported by the SEC *(starting at 14:30).*
|
||||
|
||||
The objective isn't to address the issue: it's to keep the issue hidden. Firms that underreport their short interest are gaming the system by taking advantage of how the short interest calculation is done. When the SEC relies on reports that broker-dealers provide, and FINRA takes YEARS to reveal the lies within those reports, the broker-dealer can lie without immediately facing the consequences. It allows these firms to operate in a high-risk environment without exposing just HOW big their risk-appetite is.
|
||||
|
||||
Another example that Wes mentioned was [Merrill Lynch](https://www.sec.gov/news/pressrelease/2016-128.html). Merrill was fined [$415,000,000](https://files.brokercheck.finra.org/firm/firm_16139.pdf) *(violation 3)* in 2016 for using securities held in their customer's accounts to cover their own trades. Check out this screenshot I took from that case:
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/v9625j8wek171.jpg?width=1115&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=85d43bc351fbda75e347bd33a1a550b67dda970e)
|
||||
|
||||
Remember when we mentioned [SEA 15c3-3](https://www.finra.org/sites/default/files/SEA.Rule_.15c3-3.pdf) in the case with Apex? They were asking customers to book short positions to either a cash account or a short margin account. [SEA 15c3-3](https://www.finra.org/sites/default/files/SEA.Rule_.15c3-3.pdf) protects those customers from allowing brokers to lend out the securities within their cash accounts...
|
||||
|
||||
Well Merrill Lynch knocked that one right out of the f*cking park...
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/s3zok5wyek171.jpg?width=1129&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=815e5344912234ceba846dc0d45c8b8b488b82c4)
|
||||
|
||||
Merrill made it seem like the required deposit in their customer reserve account was much lower than it truly was. They wouldn't have been able to use that cash if it reduced the amount below the minimum capital requirement, so they found a way to fudge the numbers. In doing so, they managed to prevent a CODE RED while reaping the benefits of a high-risk 'opportunity'. Should Merrill have filed bankruptcy during that time, those customers would have been completely blindsided.
|
||||
|
||||
In the case of short selling, the *true* exposure of short interest is unknown... and I'm not just talking about the short sale indicator. When a firm fails to deliver securities that were sold short, there's a pretty good indication that they've exposed themselves to a bit of a problem.. Now imagine a case where the FTDs start piling up and they STILL continue to short sell that same security.. think I'm joking?
|
||||
|
||||
Check out the [Royal Bank of Canada](https://files.brokercheck.finra.org/firm/firm_31194.pdf):
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/u6yl6tj2fk171.png?width=812&format=png&auto=webp&s=1e44cc507247db1e28c00a213f90054b9abdaa6a)
|
||||
|
||||
Again... I was pretty shocked at that one. However, nothing rang-the-bell quite like this one from [Goldman Sachs](https://files.brokercheck.finra.org/firm/firm_361.pdf):
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/5f408er6fk171.png?width=1031&format=png&auto=webp&s=38b9ad83d2a07360af5b5cd99d834a8771b66c93)
|
||||
|
||||
Goldman had 68 occasions in 4 months where they didn't close a failure-to-deliver... In 45 occasions, they CONTINUED to accept customer short sale orders in securities which it had an active failure-to-deliver...
|
||||
|
||||
When a firm is really starting to sweat, they pull certain tricks out of their ass to quell the situation. Again, this is nothing but smoke and mirrors because that's all they can really do. Just as Merrill Lynch artificially lowered their customer reserve deposit, other firms make it look like they cover their short positions.
|
||||
|
||||
One of the ways they do this is by short selling a SH*T load of shares right before a buy-in... Since we're talking about Goldman Sachs, this seems like a great time to showcase their experience with this..
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/zhf1hr1afk171.png?width=1049&format=png&auto=webp&s=f704c3722ae287480057ce3e01c561a28b77cf4c)
|
||||
|
||||
I promise... It really is as dumb as it sounds...
|
||||
|
||||
So the perception here is when Goldman's client has a FTD and they find out a buy-in is coming, the required buy-in would obviously be too extreme for the client to handle.. So they begin to buy those shares while simultaneously shorting AT LEAST the same amount they were required to purchase...
|
||||
|
||||
Have you ever failed to repay a loan so you went to another bank and got a loan to cover the first one? Well that's exactly what this is... I know what you're probably thinking... "didn't that just kick the can down the road?". The answer is YES: it didn't actually solve anything..
|
||||
|
||||
There's still one more citation that Goldman received which truly represents the pinnacle of *no-sh*ts-given.* After I cover this, I don't know how anyone could argue the systematic risks that exist within the securities lending business.. Check it out:
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/0md200bdfk171.png?width=940&format=png&auto=webp&s=cf5e8310fbcbd73699e3593b2ab5dab418055ab0)
|
||||
|
||||
For 5 years, Goldman relied on a team of 10-12 individuals to locate shares to be used by its clients for short selling. This group was known as the "demand team". Naturally, as the number of requests coming in the door started to increase, it became difficult for the team to properly document all of them. The volume peaked at 20,000 requests PER DAY, but the number of individuals that handled this job stayed the same.
|
||||
|
||||
Obviously, this became too much for them to handle so they opted out of the manual process and found another solution- the F3 key....
|
||||
|
||||
Yes- the F3 key... This button activated an autofill system which completed 98% of Goldman's orders to locate shares
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/exqzge3gfk171.png?width=964&format=png&auto=webp&s=ed9c8b740974dad01db69460332c56df81a8d768)
|
||||
|
||||
The problem with Goldman's autofill system was that it used the number of shares available to borrow at the beginning of that day, which had already been accounted for. After using the auto-locate feature, the demand team didn't even verify the accuracy of the autofill feature or document which method was used to locate the shares for each order... and this happened for 5 years..
|
||||
|
||||
Just goes to show how dedicated firms like Goldman Sachs truly are to the smallest of details, you know? Great f*cking work, guys.
|
||||
|
||||
By the way, I have to show one of Goldman's short sale indicator violations... It's too good to pass up.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/5iuhlkcjfk171.png?width=1082&format=png&auto=webp&s=f4e2fa1f106e78b9d282b60c3cee9944e919ea82)
|
||||
|
||||
At some point, you just have to laugh at these ass clowns... I mean seriously... one violation for a 4 year period involving over 380,000,000 short interest positions... they have plenty of other short interest violations, I just laughed at how the magnitude of this one was summarized by FINRA with 10 lines and roughly 4 minutes... whoever wrote that one must have been late for lunch..
|
||||
|
||||
The last thing I'd like to note here is the way in which short sellers use options to "cover" their positions. Wes gave a great overview of this in the AMA *(starting at 6:25)*. Basically, one group will buy puts and another group buys calls. This creates a synthetic share that is only provided if the option is activated. Regardless, short sellers will use that synthetic share to cover their short position and the regulators actually accept it...
|
||||
|
||||
However, as Wes points out, most of those options expire without being activated which means the share is never delivered. This expiration can be set months down the road and allows the short seller to keep kicking the can.
|
||||
|
||||
I doubt I need to say this, but we all remember the wild options activity that was happening shortly after GameStop spiked in January. [u/HeyItsPixel](https://www.reddit.com/u/HeyItsPixel/) was one of the first to point this out. While a lot of that activity was on the retail front, I suspect a lot of it was done by short sellers to cover those positions.
|
||||
|
||||
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________
|
||||
|
||||
5. Hedgies are f*cked...
|
||||
|
||||
I'm officially +20 pages deep and there's still so much I'd like to say. It's best saved for another time and another post, I suppose. So I guess I'll wrap all of this up with some of the best news I can possibly provide...
|
||||
|
||||
It all started with a [73 page PDF](https://www.sec.gov/comments/s7-08-08/s70808-318.pdf) that was published in 2005 by a silverback named John D. Finnerty.
|
||||
|
||||
John was a Professor of Finance at Fordham University when he published *"short selling, death spiral convertibles, and the profitability of stock manipulation"*. The document is loaded with sh*t that's incredibly relevant today, especially when it comes to naked short selling. He dives into the exact formula that short sellers use, which is far beyond what my wrinkled brain can interpret, alone...
|
||||
|
||||
..However, when firms are naked shorting a company with the goal of bankrupting them, they leave footprints which are only explained by this event. The proof is in the pudding, so to speak..
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/ax7u0r4wfk171.jpg?width=1072&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=1828755bfe49c47ca178d960f91dfd21d8b0d680)
|
||||
|
||||
Any of this sound familiar??
|
||||
|
||||
*"The manipulator can not drive the share price close to zero unless he can naked short an extraordinary number of shares...* *this form of manipulation would result in... unusually heavy trading volume, and unusually large and persistent fails to deliver at the NSCC".*
|
||||
|
||||
Anyone else remember the volume in GME during the run-up in January? The total volume traded between 1/31/2021 and 2/5/2021 was 1,508,793,439 shares, or an average daily trade volume of 88,752,555 shares. On 1/22/2021, the volume reached 197,157,946... that's roughly 3x the number of shares that exist..
|
||||
|
||||
if this doesn't sound like unusual volume then I'm not sure what is. Furthermore, the FTD report on GameStop was through the roof during this time:
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/brz98nbzfk171.jpg?width=1625&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=83ae877853acd2ec65fa73f57216f00b708a7eab)
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/zlla3ak0gk171.jpg?width=1038&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=c5d4a1331f8c9d97b5338cc55a37310a95c9559b)
|
||||
|
||||
Notice the statement where the manipulator will be relieved of its obligation to cover IF the firm's shares are cancelled in bankruptcy? Did you happen to see footnotes 65 & 66 in the first screenshot of his PDF? It references a company that he used for his analysis...
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/zdp3at43gk171.jpg?width=997&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=8508c9d0c869544f0ccd3a15477abfd64d38897c)
|
||||
|
||||
Charter Communications had a whopping 241.8% short float in 2005... The ONLY way the manipulator could have escaped this was by bankrupting the company and relieving the obligation to repurchase those shares...
|
||||
|
||||
Guess what happened to Charter? They filed for [bankruptcy](https://abcnews.go.com/Business/story?id=7189668&page=1) in 2009...
|
||||
|
||||
However, unlike John's example where naked short sellers were driving down the price without opposition, GameStop had extremely high demand from retail investors to counter this activity. As I have discussed with Dr. T and Carl Hagberg, the run-up in volume during January and February was largely conducted by naked short sellers in an attempt to suppress the share price. As I have shown in the example with Goldman Sachs, firms will short sell during a buy-in for the same exact reason. To stabilize the price, you must stabilize supply and demand.
|
||||
|
||||
...You know what Charter didn't have?
|
||||
|
||||
AN ARMY OF APES TO HODL THE STONK
|
||||
|
||||
DIAMOND. F*CKING. HANDS
|
@ -1,9 +1,9 @@
|
||||
A House of Cards parts I, II, & III in PDF
|
||||
==========================================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :----: | :----: |
|
||||
| [u/atobitt](https://www.reddit.com/user/atobitt/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nm83eb/a_house_of_cards_parts_i_ii_iii_in_pdf/) |
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/atobitt](https://www.reddit.com/user/atobitt/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nm83eb/a_house_of_cards_parts_i_ii_iii_in_pdf/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
@ -12,3 +12,9 @@ A House of Cards parts I, II, & III in PDF
|
||||
<https://pdfhost.io/v/lRQ4HqpG0_House_of_Cards_Atobitt.pdf>
|
||||
|
||||
BIIIIIIGGGG shoutout to [u/Softlykile2](https://www.reddit.com/u/Softlykile2/) for providing the link and [u/jupitair](https://www.reddit.com/u/jupitair/) for the post. Go forth and share across all of the interwebs. Let every boomer-ape absorb this information through a traditional & newspapery medium.
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
**Alternative PDF Location in case PDFHost is Down posted by [u/Meticulous-](https://www.reddit.com/user/Meticulous-/)**
|
||||
|
||||
[House-of-Cards-by-atobitt.pdf](https://github.com/verymeticulous/wikAPEdia/files/6721578/House-of-Cards-by-atobitt.pdf)
|
@ -0,0 +1,298 @@
|
||||
POST AMA DD- Lucy Komisar AMA powerpoint and partial script
|
||||
===========================================================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/pinkcatsonacid](https://www.reddit.com/user/pinkcatsonacid/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nke7sp/post_ama_dd_lucy_komisar_ama_powerpoint_and/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
[Education 👨🏫 | Data 🔢](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22Education%20%F0%9F%91%A8%E2%80%8D%F0%9F%8F%AB%20%7C%20Data%20%F0%9F%94%A2%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||
Many of you noticed I made a snazzy powerpoint to use during the Lucy K AMA today, but didn't get to use it due to technical difficulties. So even though it's not the same, here is the bulk of what was intended for the interview, including Lucy's written script. Knowledge is Power! 💪
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/g8nivrt6l6171.jpg?width=677&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=60102104cecd6de43dfc9d914a4525be62e1f80b)
|
||||
|
||||
🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀
|
||||
|
||||
Lucy Komisar AMA Part 2 [(Link here)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wuPizlDY0Ys&t=22s)
|
||||
|
||||
Topic of Discussion- The SEC
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/p98qxh2476171.jpg?width=180&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=463cc9d081a8fa5a35b8828dd41b6121dd2737ec)
|
||||
|
||||
Securities and Exchange Commission
|
||||
|
||||
THE SEC for Superstonk- Script By Lucy Komisar
|
||||
|
||||
*When plunder becomes a way of life for a group of men in a society, over the course of time they create for themselves a legal system that authorizes it and a moral code that glorifies it."* --- Frédéric Bastiat, 19th century French Economist
|
||||
|
||||
How the SEC was created
|
||||
|
||||
One reason for the stock market collapses in 1929 was watering stock. A meme went "he who sells what isn't his'n must pay it back or go to prison." Traders would print up counterfeit stock certificates. Sound familiar. Naked short selling. The crash that started the depression.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/l346v5i456171.jpg?width=470&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=dbf1ac2b34080b60690ed448ed917fbce742f990)
|
||||
|
||||
Ferdinand Pecora
|
||||
|
||||
1932 Ferdinand Pecora was an immigrant working class kid from Sicily who put himself through New York Law School. He was hired in 1932 by the Senate Banking Committee to investigate the causes of the crash, to do a whitewash, but he didn't get the memo. His hearings exposed such practices as pools to support bank stock prices. Such as Let's all coordinate trades to pump up the stock. Sound familiar? GameStop? National City Bank (now Citibank) had hidden bad loans by packaging them into securities and selling them off to unwary investors. Sound familiar? Mortgage-backed securities that tanked? And that the bank sellers knew would tank?
|
||||
|
||||
The findings of the Pecora Commission exposing corruption of the financial industry let to public support for regulation, -- it took really dirty stuff to move the pubic -which would be the Glass--Steagall Banking Act of 1933, the Securities Act of 1933, and the Securities Exchange Act of 1934. That last set up the SEC.
|
||||
|
||||
Franklin Roosevelt appointed Joseph Kennedy (father of Jack and Robert) SEC chair. He had built the family fortune on financial manipulation, but Roosevelt thought he knew where the bodies were buried, who the miscreants. So the SEC cleaned up the Wall Street stables for five years. Then Kennedy's buddies of the financial oligarchy took charge again, in early regulatory capture.
|
||||
|
||||
Pecora wrote a memoir, Wall Street Under Oath. He said: "Bitterly hostile was Wall Street to the enactment of the regulatory legislation." What, the thieves don't want rule of law? About disclosure rules, he said that "Had there been full disclosure of what was being done in furtherance of these schemes, they could not long have survived the fierce light of publicity and criticism. Legal chicanery and pitch darkness were the banker's stoutest allies." Think about who are their allies today.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/kulo5kk756171.jpg?width=354&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=89e834a1f13f04b2d889fdc66e9156d0bab67db1)
|
||||
|
||||
Irving Pollack- Father of the SEC Division of Enforcement
|
||||
|
||||
1985 Irving Pollack
|
||||
|
||||
Fast forward about half a century. With the support of friends in Congress, Wall Street has neutered the securities acts by assuring the SEC would not enforce them. It made sure its foxes were guarding the henhouse. But the corruption was sometimes inconvenient. In 1985, the National Association of Securities Dealers, now FINRA, which represents the brokers, hired Irving Pollack, a former SEC commissioner who was honest, to look at short selling. Among his report's proposals: reporting of short interest -- the amount of short sales not yet covered -- should be public and perhaps more frequent. A borrowing for delivery in broker-dealer transactions should be required. A mandatory buy-in should be adopted for a delivery after a reasonable period when there has been a fail. That means the broker for the buyer who hasn't gotten the shares can buy them on the market and charge the short seller's broker. There should be surveillance of large short-interest positions, shorts not yet covered.
|
||||
|
||||
Did the SEC adopt these proposals with enthusiasm? Obviously not. Short interest is not reported frequently. Broker dealers "locate" instead of borrow or they use counterfeit shares. There's no buy-in. Buy-ins were allowed but not required. And Leslie Boni, an academic who in 2004 did a paper for the SEC on buy-ins said they were rare. But requiring buy-ins would make the stock go up, the shorts lose money.
|
||||
|
||||
And there was no surveillance of large short-interest positions.
|
||||
|
||||
In fact, corruption would be increased thanks to friends of Wall Street president Bill Clinton and his collaborator Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin (formerly of Citibank) who in 1999, killed the Glass-Steagall Act which had separated investment banking from retail banking. Retail banks till then could not use depositors' funds for risky investments. Only 10% of their income could come from selling securities.
|
||||
|
||||
That sets the stage for the last few decades.
|
||||
|
||||
2004 RegSHO set up to fail
|
||||
|
||||
The SEC, battered with complaints, in July 2004 promulgated Reg SHO, SHO for short selling. The hedge funds and big brokers who had been or would be shown to be illegally shorting all lobbied against it. It was a tepid reform of short selling that was Swiss-cheesed with loopholes. Think of Al Capone writing the tax laws. (On the other hand, his crooked progeny do write the tax laws!) Reg SHO would be implemented in 2005
|
||||
|
||||
The SEC knocked out a proposal for penalties for failing to deliver.
|
||||
|
||||
And it wrote two giant exceptions into Reg SHO. Ex-clearing and market makers.
|
||||
|
||||
The rule didn't apply to ex-clearing, which means clearing outside the DTCC, The Depository Trust Clearing Corporation, the national stock clearing company. (Yes, it's a private company owned by the broker dealers) It applied only to trades going through a registered clearing agency, i.e. what got sent through the DTCC. It said ex-clearing was "rare."
|
||||
|
||||
Sales that avoided clearing agencies could fail -- not be delivered -- without buyers' brokers reporting the fails to the DTCC or buying in, requiring the short sellers broker to buy shares on the market and deliver them. To protect short sellers and avoid Reg SHO, dealers went ex-clearing. They either cleared internally or with a cooperating broker-dealer or they went through dark pools. They were private exchanges set up by the big prime brokers and banks.
|
||||
|
||||
The major perpetrators are the large banks, doing it for large clients, hedge funds, or their own accounts. If they can do the transaction privately [ex-clearing], RegSHO doesn't apply. Now about 40% of trades go through dark pools. *If a trade failed ex-clearing, it didn't fail at the DTCC!*
|
||||
|
||||
Reg SHO also didn't apply to derivatives, the financial casino bets acknowledged as a prime cause of the current economic crisis and which also did not trade through a clearing house.
|
||||
|
||||
Even stocks that cleared through the DTCC were not always covered. The brokers got a "grandfather clause" that allowed existing fails to continue! Because we know that brokers simply rolled them over. And brokers didn't have to close out the shares they had sold short before the stock went on the Threshold List which includes shares that for five consecutive settlement days had fails to deliver of 10,000 shares or more at a clearing agency and where the level of fails was equal to at least one-half of one percent of the issuer's outstanding shares.
|
||||
|
||||
Then brokers were subject to mandatory covering only on the fifth day. Then the broker-dealer had 13 days to deliver the shares to the buyer or lender, and if it failed to do so, it could not trade that stock until it did. But the SEC knew, because staff wrote a paper on it, how options conversions allowed brokers to put off fail dates forever.
|
||||
|
||||
MARKET MAKERS
|
||||
|
||||
RegSHO allowed an options market maker exception, called after the person who designed and pushed for it: the Madoff Exception! (Did I say the crooks wrote the rules?)
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/ndifb6fvk6171.png?width=1482&format=png&auto=webp&s=4b96285ed2e17c6fa057802f34861c4c532400c0)
|
||||
|
||||
Bernie Madoff, who died in prison in Apr 2021
|
||||
|
||||
In prison in 2012 Madoff told Forbes journalist Diana Henriques: "I fell into my crime of staying Naked Short. The fact that the prosecutor and Trustee seemed clueless of this is why my frustration is so great." Clueless, or complicit? You just don't go there.
|
||||
|
||||
The SEC in 2007 eliminated Uptick Rule that requires short sales to be conducted at a higher price than the previous trade. Not helpful if the purpose is to batter down the stock price. It was never enforced.
|
||||
|
||||
2008 Stock lending and taking care of the banks
|
||||
|
||||
According to the SEC Office of Economic Analysis (2008) Reg SHO in effect since 2005 had not reduced outstanding fails. Many stocks remained on the SEC Regulation SHO Threshold List for hundreds of trading days
|
||||
|
||||
For years, the SEC claimed naked short selling and fails to deliver were not a problem. Once things began to go sour in 2008, the first thing the SEC did was ban naked short selling in 17 financial stocks plus Fannie and Freddie. It was ironic, since the big banks/brokers had been carrying out the scam on others. Hoist on their own petard.
|
||||
|
||||
And they chose the solution that people battling naked short selling had advocated for years. A July 2008 order said no traders could make trades involving those institutions unless they had pre-borrowed the security or otherwise had it available in their inventory. They had to deliver the security on the settlement date. Borrow shares before you sell them short. Stop the counterfeiting. All the regs that came out were because naked shorting, the counterfeiting of shares, was undermining banks. The SEC went from nothing is happening till the fall of 2008 that the market coming apart because of naked shorting. They chose the solution that people battling naked short selling had advocated for years. Borrow shares before you sell them short. Stop the counterfeiting.
|
||||
|
||||
The SEC said it was investigating the collapse of Bear Stearns. It had been massively naked shorted. The SEC didn't come up with anything.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/jca68d5g56171.jpg?width=330&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=741e78b0f0b0ac9ab85b0f27f872316eabbca976)
|
||||
|
||||
Ted Kaufman- former US Senator, Delaware
|
||||
|
||||
2009 Kaufman and the hard locate
|
||||
|
||||
A little-known backstory involved former Delaware Senator Ted Kaufman who ran Biden's post-election transition team. It shows how big stock market players and the institutions they control have blocked attempts to deal with naked short selling. Kaufman was Biden's longtime chief of staff, and was named to the Senate seat vacated by his boss when Biden became Barack Obama's vice president.
|
||||
|
||||
After the 2008 market meltdown that included abusive naked short selling of Bear Stearns and Lehman Brothers, Kaufman, a Democrat, and Georgia senator Johnny Isakson, a Republican, introduced legislation that directed the SEC to write regulations to end the practice. They determined that the SEC's current regulations were unenforceable. Hedge funds could spread rumors, do massive shorts without locating stocks, and deliver after the prices dropped.
|
||||
|
||||
In July 2009, Kaufman and six colleagues from both parties wrote to the SEC, proposing a "hard locate" plan that would ban all short sales unless the executing broker first obtained a unique identification number for the shares, perhaps through an automated centralized system. This would prevent multiple short sales on the basis of a single share.
|
||||
|
||||
According to Jeff Connaughton, then Kaufman's chief of staff, months before the letter, "the DTCC (the national stock clearing agency) had gone to the SEC with a proposed solution to naked short selling that looked like Kaufman's solution, with the DTCC creating a centralized database that would prevent the same shares from being used for multiple short sales.
|
||||
|
||||
The DTCC told Connaughton, 'We got pulled back.' They meant, he said, by their board, by the Wall Street powers-that-be." Because in the case of the DTCC as well as the SEC, the fox is guarding the henhouse.
|
||||
|
||||
In 2009 staffers of the Senators met with the SEC's Enforcement Division to find out the status of its investigation into the naked short selling of Bear Stearns and Lehman stock. SEC lawyers told them they'd have to be patient and that the investigation would take at least another year. It never happened.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/m6a9h2jl56171.png?width=263&format=png&auto=webp&s=4074499e1301f9ad2712d1a806d20a0383873fa2)
|
||||
|
||||
Ted Kaufman as long time advisor to the current President
|
||||
|
||||
2010 Kaufman continued to try to fight naked short selling in the Dodd-Frank debate. SEC had been ordered by the Dodd-Frank law of 2010 11 years ago to require more transparency in short selling and stock lending. It has ignored it.
|
||||
|
||||
There were some alleged improvements made that year, 2008.
|
||||
|
||||
The market makers exemption was eliminated, because the SEC said substantial levels of fails had continued in Threshold securities, and a significant number were the result of market maker exceptions. But they still had 6 days to settle their trades. So you have market makers failing and rolling their shares over every 5 ½ days.
|
||||
|
||||
The grandfather provision on Threshold securities was eliminated. Unless its position in Threshold securities was closed, a broker-dealer couldn't effect further shorts in them without borrowing or arranging to borrow the securities. Don't worry, they finessed that.
|
||||
|
||||
The amendments addressed fake borrows. It said that where a broker-dealer entered into an arrangement with another party to purchase or borrow securities, and the broker-dealer knew or has reason to know that the other party would not deliver securities in settlement of the transaction, the purchase or borrow would not be *"bona fide."*
|
||||
|
||||
It repeated that: "The NSCC - clears and settles the majority of equity securities trades conducted on the exchanges and in the over-the-counter market."
|
||||
|
||||
So the rules still didn't apply to ex-clearing and dark pools. So the ex-clearing route to naked shorts was protected. fails could be concealed at the start by ex-by not reporting them to the NSCC, the National Securities Clearing Corporation.
|
||||
|
||||
In fact, the dealers could use ex-clearing to opt out of fails from trades through the exchanges. They could take them onto their own books and deal with the fails as they chose to, meaning do nothing, let the fails sit*.*
|
||||
|
||||
And protecting the interests of the big banks/brokerages, the SEC did not include a hard locate requirement in its amendments to Reg SHO.
|
||||
|
||||
But the SEC occasionally takes enforcement actions that go after low-hanging fruit, ie don't bother anyone significant or don't order more than minor penalties, the cost of doing business.
|
||||
|
||||
2003 Sedona/Badians
|
||||
|
||||
The Sedona case, where the Badian brothers ran a death spiral financing scheme that in 2001 involved providing a loan that would be repaid in shares. And then it did a massive shorting attack that knocked down the price of the shares from $6 to 20cents. the SEC in February 2003 filed a complaint against Thomas Badian and his company, Rhino, for fraud and market manipulation of Sedona shares. Badian and Rhino immediately settled with the SEC for a $1-million fine without admitting or denying guilt. The $1 mil was a pittance, cost of doing business.
|
||||
|
||||
In 2006, the SEC filed a civil suit against Andreas Badian, four officials of Pond Equities and a trader at Refco, all involved directly in the naked shorting, but not against Ladenburg, the high-profile broker-dealer that facilitated the deals and collaborators.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/fqrt6qam66171.jpg?width=960&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=f91e36651dc8f18ba0e83a6e77d3bc079b718f3c)
|
||||
|
||||
2005 Eagletech
|
||||
|
||||
Eagletech, which had an invention, new at the time, to push phone calls to other devices. letting people to usee a single phone number that followed them from phone to phone. He became a target of a group of death spiral financing criminals working with Salomon Smith Barney in New York five Salomon officers and a group of investors offering to buy convertible preferred shares from Eagletech for up to $6 million
|
||||
|
||||
They did a pump up and then naked shorting so the stock dropped from $14 to 75 cents, reducing the market value by $113 ml. The stock went to 2 cents. The FBI was investigating. They busted 17 members of organized crime, including the crooks that ran the scheme against Eagletech.
|
||||
|
||||
SEC filed suit against Serubo, Labella and organized crime collaborators who ran the corrupt operation that got control of stock of Eagletech. It said they generated in excess of $12.7 million from the sale of Eagletech stock. Members of his Salomon Smith Barney financing team and their options market-makers in Chicago were selling shares and then failing to deliver.
|
||||
|
||||
Serubo, Labella and organized crime collaborators would be banned from penny stock trading and pay back the ill-gotten gains and fines. I couldn't find any penalties against the Salomon Smith Barney team or their options market maker collaborators.
|
||||
|
||||
Then the SEC filed suit against the victim, Eagletech, to deregister its shares because it couldn't afford several hundred thousand dollars to file audited financial reports. The delisting is like a bankruptcy, all investors are wiped out and the naked shorters never have to cover. The SEC finished what the mob started, it killed the company.
|
||||
|
||||
2007 Goldman
|
||||
|
||||
From at least March 2000 to May 2002, that's more than 2 years, certain customers of Goldman Clearing used the firm's direct market access, automated trading system to unlawfully sell securities short in advance of follow-on and secondary offerings when they could get the shares cheaper.
|
||||
|
||||
Although they were selling the offered securities short, used Goldman Clearing's direct market access, automated trading platform, the REDI System, preparing their own orders to sell on computer terminals and falsely marked them "long." The orders were routed directly to the New York Stock Exchange and other markets for execution.
|
||||
|
||||
Goldman Clearing's own records contained information that Customers were selling securities short and that they were misrepresenting their "short" sales as "long". Goldman Clearing's records showed that the customers were repeatedly failing to deliver to Goldman Clearing the securities that they purported to sell long.
|
||||
|
||||
So for two years of allowing shorts to be marked longs, Goldman had to pay civil money penalty of -- wait for it -- $1 million
|
||||
|
||||
2012 SEC v OptionsXpress
|
||||
|
||||
OptionsXpress, a wholly-owned subsidiary of Charles Schwab repeatedly engaged in sham transactions, known as "resets," designed to give the appearance of having purchased shares to close-out an open failure-to-deliver position while in fact not doing so.
|
||||
|
||||
OptionsXpress had its customers buying shares and simultaneously selling call options that were the equivalent of selling shares short. The purchase of shares created the illusion that the firm had covered the short; however, the shares were never actually delivered to the buyers because on the same day, calls were exercised, effectively reselling the shares. The purpose was to perpetuate an open short position.
|
||||
|
||||
In 2009, the six optionsXpress customer accounts bought $5.7 billion worth of securities and sold short approximately $4 billion of options. They did this to a couple of dozen companies. In January 2010, the customers who did the scam accounted for 48% of the daily trading volume in Sears. In the end OptionsXpress had to pay $4 million. Cost of doing business.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/si49uknr56171.jpg?width=206&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=56bf1d0512b8fdfc9e42c662d506fd8bc85c821f)
|
||||
|
||||
Gary Aguirre- Former Investigator for SEC & Whistleblower
|
||||
|
||||
The insiders tell the SEC corruption
|
||||
|
||||
The story of Gary Aguirre says it all
|
||||
|
||||
As a student at Georgetown Law School, Aguirre got a prize from the SEC for paper on Wall Street corruption as detailed in the Pecora hearings that led to passage of the Securities Act of 1933. So we know where he stands. In September 2004, he started as a senior counsel at the SEC Division of Enforcement. He said, "I understood what SEC was supposed to be doing: keep Wall Street from running amok. The SEC in July had promulgated Reg SHO, which it said would stop abusive naked short selling. He recalled, "The first thing I noticed is there seemed to be a deference to the large law firms who represented Wall Street players. And there were a lot of people there not at the same skill set level as the attorneys representing some of the players from Wall Street.
|
||||
|
||||
Aguirre was assigned to an investigation that implicated a powerful Wall Street insider. John Mack had been head of the hedge fund Pequot Capital Management. The suspicion was that Mack had tipped Pequot's then CEO, Arthur Samberg, of General Electric's pending acquisition of Heller Financial. Mack was the only suspect. Without that investigation, the SEC would never be able to even consider the filing of insider trading charges against Mack, Samberg, Pequot or anyone else arising out of Pequot's trading in GE and Heller
|
||||
|
||||
Aguirre refused to stop his investigation; Senior officials within the SEC's Division of Enforcement blocked an SEC subpoena seeking Mack's testimony and records in the investigation. Aguirre had contacted the Office of Special Counsel to discuss the filing of a complaint about the SEC's protection of Mack. Three days later, while on vacation, Aguirre was abruptly fired without warning on September 1, 2005, he was fired by phone.
|
||||
|
||||
An SEC official told him it would be very difficult to take Mack's testimony because of his political influence. He told him that Mack was "an industry captain," that he had powerful contacts . . . , that Mary Jo White could contact a number of powerful individuals, any of whom could call Linda about the examination. Mary Jo White was a lawyer at a Wall Street firm, Linda was Linda Thomsen, the head of enforcement. Aguirre confirmed the conversation in two e-mails to the official the next morning. The first email referenced Ferdinand Pecora.
|
||||
|
||||
Aguirre gave key papers to Charles Grassley on the Senate Finance Committee. And to the Judiciary Cmte. There were hearings in 2006.
|
||||
|
||||
He told Congress that an SEC official told him it would be very difficult to take Mack's testimony because of his political influence. The official told him Mack was "an industry captain," that he had powerful contacts . . . , that Mary Jo White could contact a number of powerful individuals, any of whom could call Linda about the examination. Mary Jo White was a lawyer at a Wall Street firm, Linda Thomsen was head of enforcement.
|
||||
|
||||
He said the SEC "favor" to Mack cleared the way for his return on June 30, 2005, as Morgan Stanley's CEO with no danger of an SEC lawsuit for insider trading. Mary Jo White would become chair of the SEC 2013 to 2017, appointed by Wall Street's favorite guy, Barak Obama, who apparently didn't know the Aguirre story.
|
||||
|
||||
Later David Kotz, the SEC's inspector general, said he had found evidence that "raised serious questions about the impartiality and fairness" of the SEC's investigation of possible insider trading at the Pequot Capital Management hedge fund.
|
||||
|
||||
Kotz also condemned what he called the "common practice" of giving outside lawyers' clients access to high-level SEC officials when they had complaints about front-line investigators. Kotz made numerous recommendations for reform, which the SEC ignored.
|
||||
|
||||
Aguirre sued the SEC and won ¾ of million $ in back pay and damages.
|
||||
|
||||
Mack, after being CEO Morgan Stanley, became CEO of Credit Suisse, then chair of Morgan Stanley and now is senior advisor to the global investment firm Kohlberg Kravis Roberts, whose strategic partners are hedge funds.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/odru363cqa171.jpg?width=200&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=852f95acbb1d5354e65c9f6b1fc32c131c93a32a)
|
||||
|
||||
Mark Fickes
|
||||
|
||||
2005 Fickes and Overstock, Chris Cox
|
||||
|
||||
Here's another case of an SEC staffer who tried to do the right thing but was pulled back. In August 2005, Overstock.com filed suit against hedge fund Rocker Partners and the equities research firm, Gradient Analytics saying they illegally colluded in short-selling the company while paying for negative reports to drive down share prices.
|
||||
|
||||
Byrne took his information to the SEC. Mark Fickes of the SEC San Francisco office. He said, "Look at the patterns, their stocks are naked shorted by Dan Loeb, David Einhorn, Steven Cohen, David Rocker. [Look at] the dates journalists Bethany, Boyd, Remond, Greenberg wrote trash jobs. [that was Bethany McLean writing for Fortune, Carol Remond for Dow Jones, Roddy Boyd for the NY Post, Herb Greenberg for MarketWatch] Byrne said, "It was the same pattern, each one of these one of these journalists writes a hatchet job, there is naked shorting, SEC action begins against them, and the Milberg Weiss lawsuit. In every case, it's part of same bum rush on the stock."
|
||||
|
||||
Byrne argued that Gradient, an investment advisor which was putting out fraudulent reports the shorters used, should be investigated -- and that the journalists were central to his case. The subpoenas were issued to Carol Remond and Herb Greenberg to provide information about conversations that they had with stock traders and analysts.
|
||||
|
||||
Fickes issued the subpoenas with the approval of the SEC's head of enforcement, Linda Thomsen. It was announced that the SEC was investigating Gradient and had issued subpoenas to Carol Remond, Herb Greenberg and to Jim Cramer of TheStreet. David Rocker sold his shares in TheStreet. A month later Cramer sold some of his shares.
|
||||
|
||||
Bryne: "Jim Cramer gets a subpoena; you have three days to disclose it. He knows TheStreet will crater, he can't just go sell it with undisclosed material information. He can get a plan to sell x amount per quarter after he gets the subpoena. TheStreet broke under a dollar."
|
||||
|
||||
"Why would a hedge fund guy have an interest to own a financial publication? Cramer discloses in his books stuff that is widely illegal. Protection for journalists is about protecting sources about stories they are writing, not about their own corrupt market manipulation."
|
||||
|
||||
The question is whether freedom of the press extends to reporters whose articles are part of illegal naked short selling scams. Fickes wanted to know.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/s650tr5z56171.jpg?width=330&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=e085154954818611d3c78b7b0ed95a00a02303c7)
|
||||
|
||||
Chris Cox- Former SEC Chair
|
||||
|
||||
He was summoned to Washington to meet with the new SEC chair, Cris Cox. Ultimately, Byrne said, the SEC caved under the media pressure. Cox killed the subpoenas and the SEC dropped its investigation of Gradient. Cox was SEC chair when Gary Aguirre was fired.
|
||||
|
||||
What should the SEC do now? Solutions are there if it wants to protect investors, not do as it is told by the big broker-dealers.
|
||||
|
||||
- Require buy-ins. Require the broker of the investor who doesn't get shorted stock delivered to buy it on the market and charge the seller's broker. Of course, requiring buy-ins would make the stock go up, the shorters lose money.
|
||||
|
||||
- Restore the uptick rule so shorters can't sell for less that the last shorted trade. That would stop shorters hammering a stock down to bankruptcy.
|
||||
|
||||
- Create a consolidated audit trail (CAT) to collect order and trade execution information to identify and enable punishment of illegal trading activities, including naked short selling. More than a decade after the SEC promised it, following the 2010 flash crash, CAT doesn't exist.
|
||||
|
||||
- Impose real penalties on transgressors, like loss of license.
|
||||
|
||||
- Send cases of serial trading cheats to the Justice Department for criminal prosecution.
|
||||
|
||||
- End the revolving door with Wall Street.
|
||||
|
||||
- What will Gary Gensler do? And will he listen most to the pushback from the big brokers or investors like people on Superstonk?
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/8x1el37566171.jpg?width=988&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=296865c7cefe2fbb38b2ce25f4e6730bb498fa2a)
|
||||
|
||||
Gary Gensler- Current SEC Chair
|
||||
|
||||
_____________________________________________________________________________________
|
||||
|
||||
Questions
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/wwox8t4896171.jpg?width=998&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=01378e780fc8c6f174a6c840b76132b2b9e33c1e)
|
||||
|
||||
- You mentioned in your last interview that NSS has been going on for a very long time, but that it ends with Gamestop. Can you clarify further *how* you see this ending with Gamestop?
|
||||
|
||||
>LK: I meant the story I tell in the book I am writing ends with GameStop. NSS goes on.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/x8tcjb0m96171.png?width=1234&format=png&auto=webp&s=051d06480a45392f1cf48bd7579fc85a6f609447)
|
||||
|
||||
- Understanding that this is an unprecedented situation, we would simply like your personal opinion: Do you think that Wall Street/ US Gov't could/would pull some "trickery" to prevent the short squeeze from happening? What rules are they unable, or unwilling to break?
|
||||
|
||||
>LK: We saw in GameStop trickery using dark pool trades of single shares. We know -- even the SEC admits -- that brokers create fake options conversions shares. They will break every rule, helped by the SEC which chooses not to enforce or orders mild penalties.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/6prc9two96171.jpg?width=1079&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=5901203d74c13d3f0177dc484a6838a6b62a12e6)
|
||||
|
||||
now i want to play stardew valley
|
||||
|
||||
- What is your recommendation for finding a trustworthy, easily digestible news source for those of us who "don't have the time" to watch full hearings or read full bills?
|
||||
|
||||
>LK: Depends on the subject. An aggregator I like is Naked Capitalism which has a lot of economic stories. The Daily Poster of David Sirota. I think the American Prospect that ran my NSS story is good. You have to try various online media to find the ones that do what your asking.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/iosfnjcv96171.jpg?width=1080&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=dc409dc5f02241f1aa8d009096fcb65758e029a9)
|
||||
|
||||
*For clarification- The Hearings will be held: by U.S. Senate Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs on May 26, and by the U.S. House Committee on Financial Services on May 27.*
|
||||
|
||||
- Congress has 2 hearings scheduled this week that are bringing megabank execs up to testify. In your opinion, will the correct questions be asked, or do you believe this is just political theatre?
|
||||
|
||||
>LK: It's political theater. This is the same congress that has not reinstated the Glass -Steagall act of 1933 that separated commercial and investment banking, meaning keeping depositors' money from being used for banks own investments. thanks to Bill Clinton and Robert Rubin, the friends of Wall Street. You can tie the 2008 crash to that.
|
||||
|
||||
_________________________________________________________________________________________________
|
||||
|
||||
Thank y'all again for being so awesome through technical difficulties!! The show must go on, right?
|
||||
|
||||
Thanks again to Lucy Komisar for joining us for a second time. Lucy will be back next Wednesday to speak with Wes Christian. Details to come in tomorrow's Jungle Beat! Be sure to follow [u/theJungleBeat](https://www.reddit.com/u/theJungleBeat/) so you catch the latest news from around Superstonk, every day at market close!
|
||||
|
||||
I did speak to Lucy on the phone tonight and we agreed to both have a glass of wine in honor of Supertonk. And she said she will be sure to charge her iPad ;) 🥂
|
12
Brokers/TD-Ameritrade/2021-05-25-IEX-Direct-Routing.md
Normal file
12
Brokers/TD-Ameritrade/2021-05-25-IEX-Direct-Routing.md
Normal file
@ -0,0 +1,12 @@
|
||||
IEX DIRECT ROUTING WITH TDA: Client Services > My Profile: 1) Enable Direct Routing 2) Routing, Select IEX
|
||||
==========================================================================================================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/candilox](https://www.reddit.com/user/candilox/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nkt7ie/iex_direct_routing_with_tda_client_services_my/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
[Education 👨🏫 | Data 🔢](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22Education%20%F0%9F%91%A8%E2%80%8D%F0%9F%8F%AB%20%7C%20Data%20%F0%9F%94%A2%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://i.redd.it/48ho80rwha171.jpg)
|
@ -0,0 +1,66 @@
|
||||
Preparing your eToro Account for the incoming MOASS: An easy 5-Step checklist for Apes, with pictures!
|
||||
======================================================================================================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/Dutchie_PC](https://www.reddit.com/user/Dutchie_PC/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nj4knk/preparing_your_etoro_account_for_the_incoming/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
[Education 👨🏫 | Data 🔢](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22Education%20%F0%9F%91%A8%E2%80%8D%F0%9F%8F%AB%20%7C%20Data%20%F0%9F%94%A2%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||
Good morning EuroApes, good morning BritApes, good morning international Apes!
|
||||
|
||||
As your self-appointed patron saint of *les miserables* confined to trading on eToro, I present you this five-step checklist to make sure your eToro Account is all set for our trip to Tendietown. Please note that I am not a financial advisor, and none of this should be interpreted as financial advice.
|
||||
|
||||
Get your favourite crayons to snack on, put your intelligent face on, and let's GO!
|
||||
|
||||
1\. Two-Factor Auth
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/12ndcti5bu071.png?width=650&format=png&auto=webp&s=61369a9f04c75169f007cf5ef1559e75c7346211)
|
||||
|
||||
We all hate 2FA, I know. Just like cookies, they take the fun out of the internet. But please turn it on - you don't want to be caught locked out of your own account right after the rocket took off. Sounds paranoid? You bet! There's a lot at stake here, you *should* be paranoid.
|
||||
|
||||
Go to settings, then to Account, then to Two Factor Authentication.
|
||||
|
||||
2\. Private Profile
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/o1ngj80jbu071.png?width=650&format=png&auto=webp&s=311125d5f80b36caddc91bfdc3abb4815b9aa66c)
|
||||
|
||||
People with private profiles inserting themselves in eToro discussions are frowned upon. Well, fuck that. You don't need eToro's poorly-moderated community posts: Superstonk is your home! Protect your identity ahead of the MOAS(S), set your profile to private.
|
||||
|
||||
Go to settings, then to Privacy, and uncheck the two boxes for Public Account and Full name.
|
||||
|
||||
3\. Your Account Manager
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/usdyyfu9cu071.png?width=650&format=png&auto=webp&s=f3a61b03b4b7e82de0ece3b84ed021b67839795d)
|
||||
|
||||
Now, I am not sure whether everyone has access to an Account Manager. I think this is tied to how much $€£ you're working with. But if you *do* have access to this feature, go ahead and introduce yourself. They respond quicker than Customer Support.
|
||||
|
||||
For this you need to visit Club Dashboard, which you should find above 'Invite Friends'.
|
||||
|
||||
4\. Keep records
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/milmz6pscu071.png?width=650&format=png&auto=webp&s=ebe07b2991deff103a2c60598fbe57cae2abfc55)
|
||||
|
||||
I don't trust any broker, and neither should you. Again, there's a lot at stake here. Fuckery may be afoot. Screenshots are good, but Account Statements are better. Download these regularly, you might need those docs one day. No need to read them: Just download, back up, done.
|
||||
|
||||
Go to settings, then to Account, scroll down to Account Statement, click View, fill out the dates.
|
||||
|
||||
(*Tip: I do this once a week, and my start date is always 24.01.2021, the day before I first bought GME)*
|
||||
|
||||
5\. No SL/TP!
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/qepra21ddu071.png?width=650&format=png&auto=webp&s=49dc924d7e03789ff303569d6fd094f7afea3d34)
|
||||
|
||||
You didn't think your clogs-wearing Ape would sign off without emphasising the most important, did you? Check every single position, including That Movie Stock if you hold any, and be sure Stop Loss and Take Profit are turned OFF. Not zero, not 1000%. OFF!
|
||||
|
||||
Go to your portfolio, click on the name of a stock or the little gear, check your settings.
|
||||
|
||||
--
|
||||
|
||||
Alright Apies, I hope this little guide serves you well. Let me know if you have any questions, and please do call me out when I missed something. Remember the MOAS could start tomorrow, on the 10th of June, or in a couple of months. No matter what, hedgies are fukt and shorts must be covered.
|
||||
|
||||
Keep the faith, buy and hodl, think of an exit strategy when you are selling on the way down. I will now tend to my tulips and I wish you all a wonderful Sunday.
|
||||
|
||||
APES TOGETHER...!!
|
@ -0,0 +1,112 @@
|
||||
Theory: The SLGG merger IS happening, it's a MOASS launching button and RC has been pointing it out for a long time (TODAY AS WELL ♥)
|
||||
=====================================================================================================================================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/pepsodont](https://www.reddit.com/user/pepsodont/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/ngdwjj/theory_the_slgg_merger_is_happening_its_a_moass/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
[Opinion 👽](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22Opinion%20%F0%9F%91%BD%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||
I think it might be apparent from my posts now that I'm not wrinkle-brained in financials, chart reading and other ~~boring~~ important stuff but I like finding patterns. I've been working as a psychologist and a marketer for a long time, so believe me when I tell you there's a lot to be uncovered by understanding behavior patterns or just patterns of things that look unrelated, but really aren't.
|
||||
|
||||
Some people call it far-reaching, tinfoil, confirmation bias, whatever - but check my post history and you'll see I've been more right than wrong.
|
||||
|
||||
As one of the veteran apes wrote in a comment in here once: "One weird thing happening is a coincidence, two is enemy action".
|
||||
|
||||
So with that in mind, let's check out why I think this is a pattern (not a coincidence) which is pointing into Gamestop merging with SLGG after all. Yes, even after we forgot about it because we thought it was a nothingburger.
|
||||
|
||||
Once again - this is a "tinfoil" theorycrafting. Don't go into comments telling me that, I KNOW. Get in here to get your tits jacked and drink up on confirmation bias. Alright, retards?
|
||||
|
||||
1\. Gamestop changing its logo
|
||||
|
||||
Today, apes started reporting Gamestop changing its logo from "Gamestop" to just "GS" on WeBull. We also saw a changed logo on their astronaut tweet.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/rt1hpjcyo5071.png?width=591&format=png&auto=webp&s=b62b363068dbe4a36e486f62cfa77e83dffec0b1)
|
||||
|
||||
There's no reason to do it unless you're planning on changing that logo - if they wanted it shorter, they could've gone for "GME" which is standard and everybody knows it.
|
||||
|
||||
Conclusion: It looks like Gamestop is signaling a logo change. When do you usually change a company's logo? When the company goes through a transformation, maybe a merger.
|
||||
|
||||
2\. The astronaut is drinking Carlsberg beer which underwent a notable merger recently
|
||||
|
||||
We thought that the Carlsberg beer was a nod to our AMA with Carl Hagberg, but was it really?
|
||||
|
||||
Just google "Carlsberg" and "merge" - [one of the biggest merges in the last year](https://www.bighospitality.co.uk/Article/2020/10/30/Carlsberg-and-Marston-s-merger-completes) with Marston's taking a smaller position of 40% despite their much more superior valuation with difference in 380 million of british pounds.
|
||||
|
||||
3\. A merger would put GME shares on the moon, it's a fucking launch button
|
||||
|
||||
If you don't know, I'll tell you something juicy. If, theoretically, Gamestop were to merge with another entity (RC Ventures, SLGG) and decided on changing their name even slightly, they would get a new stock market ticker.
|
||||
|
||||
That would initiate a mother of all share recalls since ALL the issued shares would have to be taken in for ~~questioning about Kenny's mayo habits~~ a reissuance - which means all the lent shares would be requested back and the naked ones would have to be bought at market price. That would initiate the MOASS.
|
||||
|
||||
4\. Gamestop has a brand new official esports Twitter page
|
||||
|
||||
If you create an esports Twitter page, you probably want to start dabbling in esports, right? But damn, it's fucking hard for a transforming company to just start an esports division on their own from scratch, where would they even begin? They didn't even hire key managers for this, so how are they gonna navigate through these salty waters?
|
||||
|
||||
Well, the industry standard for companies who want to enter a new market and have cash is to simply BUY A COMPANY THAT SPECIALIZES IN THAT MARKET.
|
||||
|
||||
Boy, would it be fortunate if such a company was aro....oh fuck me Ryan, where exactly were you a few weeks ago?
|
||||
|
||||
5\. RC was near SLGG HQ and he tweeted about it
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/o9lwxqvcp5071.png?width=1507&format=png&auto=webp&s=f08bd9a69f46f5094c7a85985d2c316db526603a)
|
||||
|
||||
Why would you pinpoint where you are Ryan?
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/puf08k8fp5071.png?width=967&format=png&auto=webp&s=77f5e8eac8974c2b6d58f82e5dfd08a480b4e737)
|
||||
|
||||
Oh that's why!
|
||||
|
||||
6\. RC tweeted an ice-cream and a frog pointing at Ann Hand, CEO of SLGG
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/yvw3kl3ip5071.png?width=603&format=png&auto=webp&s=bd5b09f8fcc79eca28bbe14cbe22cc5938bd9a36)
|
||||
|
||||
I was there, 3000 years ago...
|
||||
|
||||
Yeah, the famous ice-cream and a frog tweet. I don't think any of the theories as of to its significance paid off so let me offer one of the less popular ones.
|
||||
|
||||
Check out where did Ann Hand, the CEO of SLGG work before.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/7swu9s1pp5071.png?width=796&format=png&auto=webp&s=3d421bcdf96bf5f2ca0faeb564c0f6ba0ad82088)
|
||||
|
||||
Coincidences, huh?
|
||||
|
||||
7\. He tweeted "love" recently and a heart / love today (probably completely wrong, check EDIT)
|
||||
|
||||
Why repeat the same sentiment Ryan? What's so important about love? Are you just sending positive vibes our way? You never did this before, why would you start now, without reason?
|
||||
|
||||
My personal opinion on this is that the grandma tweet didn't work the way he wanted to - maybe it was a funny coincidence it worked so well with lyrics saying hold me hold me squeeze me or maybe he didn't realize. After all, he never tried decrypting his tweets in song lyrics so I don't think it was intentional.
|
||||
|
||||
Did you guys realize how fast this tweet came? It's almost like "yeah, but I wanted to tell you something else".
|
||||
|
||||
By going with that theory - what does "love" usually mean? Love, sex, all that stuff - isn't it a merger between 2 people usually? Hmmm? HMMMMMMM?
|
||||
|
||||
I know many people will say "tinfoil", "far-reaching", "reaching", "speculating", blahblah, miss me with that noise. No shit this is a speculation, there's nothing else to do with it.
|
||||
|
||||
But that's how investigation works. You create a hypothesis, a theory and later you'll see if you were right or not. For me personally, these things are adding up too nicely for them to be "just coincidences" or "glitches" or shit.
|
||||
|
||||
No, this is a pattern.
|
||||
|
||||
Could I be wrong? Most likely. But it's the best we got imo. Have fun jacking them tits to this motherload of confirmation bias! 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀
|
||||
|
||||
*- Jacques Le Titz*
|
||||
|
||||
EDIT: It came into my attention that the heart ❤️ tweet would be much simpler to explain with "hedgies are on their last life". I'm a big fan of Occam's Razor, so I'm going to go with it - the grandma tweet has therefore been decrypted nicely and "love" isn't the concept he's going for!
|
||||
|
||||
I also like the theory it's a < and 3, which means "less than 3" weeks to the meeting. Theorycrafting is fun!
|
||||
|
||||
EDIT 2: Ugh, because I probably should've seen it coming - no people, I'm not encouraging anyone to buy SLGG. The only position I have is GME, because that's the only play.
|
||||
|
||||
But if you want to I mean, sure, I'm pumping it and then dumping with a fucking tinfoil hat theory, Jesus. I have the dump button right before me and it's big and red (that's what she said). SMH
|
||||
|
||||
EDIT 3 because of course: Guys, please, be careful about buying SLGG. People are already going apeshit (haha) on me that this is a pump and dump post since Citadel is long on SLGG.
|
||||
|
||||
That fact alone doesn't mean anything since Shitadel is long on thousands of stocks and they could expect GME to do exactly what I've been saying and maybe they want to block them by voting against or they wanna ride the wave, I don't know. Nobody knows. Just...fuck other stocks except GME okay?
|
||||
|
||||
It's also up by 15% or so AH so yay for the power of Superstonk I guess?
|
||||
|
||||
EDIT 4: No I don't have a damn clue what's going on with the All Seeing Awards. Maybe DFV's mouse button got stuck and he needs help with the mouse since he's not a cat?
|
||||
|
||||
EDIT 5: For those who STILL don't believe this is an organic post, here are the screenshots ( <https://i.imgur.com/naiRTJP.png> and <https://i.imgur.com/f3CEioL.png> ) of how the idea originated in our private Discord and that should be the end of it or I swear to Wendy's tendies I will turn into a vibrator from so much shaking of my head.
|
@ -0,0 +1,42 @@
|
||||
Every ape gets paid. A look at the numbers.
|
||||
===========================================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/Themeloncalling](https://www.reddit.com/user/Themeloncalling/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nihl31/every_ape_gets_paid_a_look_at_the_numbers/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
[Education 👨🏫 | Data 🔢](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22Education%20%F0%9F%91%A8%E2%80%8D%F0%9F%8F%AB%20%7C%20Data%20%F0%9F%94%A2%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||
TL;DR: Apes can get tendies. No doomsday for world economy. Ook ook. 🚀 🚀 🚀
|
||||
|
||||
Who pays the apes?
|
||||
|
||||
Let's take a look at the chain of failures. Short hedgies go broke trying to pay the apes with shares. Their positions are transferred to their creditors, the big banks. What happens when they don't have enough money? They go to the lender of last resort, in this case, the Federal Reserve. Here's a video on it:
|
||||
|
||||
<https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Tb4Dkf5puJg>
|
||||
|
||||
The last time this happened was in 2008, when among others, AIG latched onto the Federal tit for a massive bailout and later paid hundreds of millions in bonuses to the very department that triggered the bailout. Seriously, this happened: <https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AIG_bonus_payments_controversy>
|
||||
|
||||
If any of you XX or higher shareholders out there are holding past $218 million in payouts as a symbolic gesture, just remember, you deserve it more than AIG. Anyone who says otherwise can go play leapfrog with unicorns.
|
||||
|
||||
How much will the Fed need to print?
|
||||
|
||||
According to this DD on Geometric Mean: <https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/comments/m9td6w/estimations_for_the_total_payout_of_gme_based_on/>
|
||||
|
||||
Around 5 trillion dollars at the $20 million a share range, averaged out for paper hands along the way. Assuming that 20% of the ownership is outside of America, that leaves 4 trillion going into the domestic economy. But wait! Taxes. 2 trillion goes to apes, 2 trillion goes to the treasury. If I was the ruling party, 2 trillion dollars with no strings attached to advance my party's interests would be pretty sweet, another reason why doing nothing is the best approach. The budgetary spending for 2020 was 4.79 trillion dollars. This windfall would be worth around 41.8% of their budget. Imagine if the government was an average person, 41.8% of what they spend for the year is a small jackpot but not life changing. It is definitely not enough to be considered hyperinflation. Assuming that 80% of this subreddit is American shareholders, this works out to be 240,000 shareholders / 331 million people = 0.0725% of the population. Spreading the payout around such a small group of people will not have a huge effect on the consumer price index or put a lot of pressure on demand, unless you are considering fringe categories like Lambos and McLarens.
|
||||
|
||||
Won't all this money ruin the economy?
|
||||
|
||||
NO! According to the Fed data gathered by Forbes, the top 1% of Americans have a combined net worth of 34.2 trillion dollars: <https://www.forbes.com/sites/tommybeer/2020/10/08/top-1-of-us-households-hold-15-times-more-wealth-than-bottom-50-combined/?sh=5b0c5c835179>
|
||||
|
||||
The top 1% own 43% of the world's wealth, totaling over 173.3 trillion dollars in 2019: <https://inequality.org/facts/global-inequality/>
|
||||
|
||||
With the geometric mean, the top 1% of wealth in America will increase by 5.8%. On a global scale, 3 trillion dollars after taxes is a 1.7% increase. The payout will register a small blip, and those who paper hand early may not even make the cut for the top 1%. What does this conclude? Fears of an ape payout causing hyperinflation is FUD. The payout causing global hyperinflation or massive distortion of the world's wealth is FUD. Don't hold for a number that seems big to you. Hold for a number that seems big to THEM. Even if the number of diamond hands doubles or triples, 9 trillion dollars after taxes is a small ripple in the global supply of wealth. Let's hope some of you apes will know how to create a positive butterfly effect with your tendies.
|
||||
|
||||
Edit: [u/Allohn](https://www.reddit.com/u/Allohn/) pointed out this DD here has a more correct Apeish number of 60 trillion:
|
||||
|
||||
<https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/mmt8rh/geometric_mean_exponential_increase_and_gme_price/?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share>
|
||||
|
||||
How does that change the overall picture? 25 trillion taxes, 25 trillion to apes, 10 trillion abroad. Net impact of 35 trillion. 20.2% increase in the top 1% of worldwide wealth with ultimate diamond hands. Still not enough to pay off the national debt of 28 trillion and counting. Seeing as how M2 is no longer counted, and the true number of shares to be paid out is unknown, I wonder if they can sweep this much money under the rug. Only one way to find out!
|
@ -0,0 +1,42 @@
|
||||
According to TradingView.com, Crypto market has liquidated over $1,000,000,000,000 USD since May. The price of GME has no limit.
|
||||
================================================================================================================================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/KFC_just](https://www.reddit.com/user/KFC_just/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nj5beh/according_to_tradingviewcom_crypto_market_has/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
[Discussion 🦍](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22Discussion%20%F0%9F%A6%8D%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||
TL;DR: Pretty picture show hedgies r fukt.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/vvr25m60ku071.png?width=2048&format=png&auto=webp&s=0eb9c9f529beb404146c59563a9efc161919386f)
|
||||
|
||||
1Trillion gone from Crypto since May 2021
|
||||
|
||||
So i have seen several posts debating firstly the potential size of the collective payout that is going to come for GME, and secondly what the maximum price that will actually be paid for GME is likely to be.
|
||||
|
||||
While everything is a hypothetical until it happens, and I am by no means a maths guy, I submit that the evidence of massive liquidations of the crypto currency market which we strongly think is being cyclically pumped and dumped to raise cash for Citadel and co, I submit that the grand total of 1 Trillion dollars so far just on crypto means that we control the price.
|
||||
|
||||
There are of course the usual caveats that not all of this is GME related, or Citadel related, but involve every other possible reason in addition for every other player involved, preparations for Atobitt to release HOC 2 and 3 and trigger the liquidity crisis, and yada tada yada you get the point.
|
||||
|
||||
But, caveats aside, the fact that 1 Trillion dollars has already been pulled out of just one sector of the market in preparation should be sufficient to jack your tits.
|
||||
|
||||
Every single share of Gamestop both real and synthetic, in market, in dark pools, in ETFs, in options and calls and puts and shorts and everything else under the sun, every single one of them already has a designated owner before this started. Remember that. Before apes began mass buying and holding every single share was already owned. And now they're all "owned" many times over. What fun.
|
||||
|
||||
This is why they cheated and lied and stole and counterfeited more shares than could ever exist in this company. This is why it is impossible for them to close their positions. This is why they are collectively collecting 1 Trillion dollars just to start with.
|
||||
|
||||
Because every single paper handed bitch in the world selling low couldnt possibly change this maths now that so many synthetic shares are due. Every single share, real and synthetic, must be purchased at whatever price is available. And as the paper hands leave, and shares concentrate in the diamond hands of the apes, the price to buy increases exponentially.
|
||||
|
||||
All shorts must cover
|
||||
|
||||
This is why you are going to win.
|
||||
|
||||
Edit: [Link to TradingView source](https://www.tradingview.com/markets/cryptocurrencies/global-charts/) damn watching that go down in real time across the whole crypto, rather than any particular stock is quite the sight.
|
||||
|
||||
Edit 2 shills got to pump it
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/hywxgvkqrx071.png?width=2048&format=png&auto=webp&s=1cc378aeff2e99171575895b61a1dfe1c4de4655)
|
||||
|
||||
Headline 1: Bitcoin tumbles 50%. Headline 2: Buy now you fool. Transparent much
|
@ -0,0 +1,100 @@
|
||||
GME, Banks Falling Off a Cliff, The Movie Stock, Elliot Waves, WUT Mean For This Week? 🚀
|
||||
=========================================================================================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/possibly6](https://www.reddit.com/user/possibly6/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/o4jxb3/gme_banks_falling_off_a_cliff_the_movie_stock/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
[DD 👨🔬](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22DD%20%F0%9F%91%A8%E2%80%8D%F0%9F%94%AC%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||
Sup Apes
|
||||
|
||||
Elliot waves guy here doing my best to give you your daily dose of confirmation bias before the market opens!
|
||||
|
||||
Not financial advice, I do unimaginable things with the crayons I get when I ask for a kid's menu at restaurants.
|
||||
|
||||
NON NEGOTIABLE: PLAY THIS AS YOU READ (This song slowly builds, idk the vibes feel right <https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bvBfiRWLj_0>)
|
||||
|
||||
HAPPY FUCKING FATHERS DAY TO ALL YOU PAPA SILVERBACKS OUT THERE!!! If you're drunk from the day's festivities, this read will be even better.
|
||||
|
||||
This might be a shorter post, I don't have too much to say as of yet other than I'm FUCKING JACKED 🚀
|
||||
|
||||
First off, I'm sure you all have seen the posts regarding bank stocks following and how we can potentially use that as a predictive indicator in terms of GME stock price. Great work here if you missed the post: <https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/o42bfm/big_banks_lost_a_lot_of_value_on_january_14th_but/>
|
||||
|
||||
Let's take a look at the banks last week:
|
||||
|
||||
[OOOOF](https://preview.redd.it/vqt6zzy8ji671.png?width=2802&format=png&auto=webp&s=0e482ac603a8601e6d2988e8ac7e1475473c5140)
|
||||
|
||||
This might be one of my favorite screenshots of all time. Let's take a look at the banks back in the middle of january and see if that had any correlation to GME goin bananas at the end of January.
|
||||
|
||||
[death to big banks](https://preview.redd.it/eb9h44rgji671.png?width=2806&format=png&auto=webp&s=d45dcd5616c6db3ab3d85698ad1f65b9c31dc424)
|
||||
|
||||
Given that GME's run peaked in the end of January, the conclusions that I draw from that are the banks hit a low around GME's peak. Granted, there were many outside factors at play back then, so this is all speculative. However, Let's look at GME in january now, pay close attention to the dates on the bottom and compare those to the banks above:
|
||||
|
||||
[squeeze for ants](https://preview.redd.it/jg73y59tji671.png?width=2770&format=png&auto=webp&s=0af347858b726f3fe3104a2339cd794cc2412543)
|
||||
|
||||
just from eyeballing, we can see that the banks seem to find their "bottom" as GME begins to lift off. Does this mean the banks will go to zero before GME squeezes? absolutely not, please don't think that will be the case. HOWEVER, we can assume that the financial sector and GME have some sort of inverse relationship, simply based on the erratic price action between the pairs.
|
||||
|
||||
This time around, I'm expecting banks to continue to fall as GME rises. Can't halt buying this time around!
|
||||
|
||||
I haven't charted out the bank stocks because frankly I don't really care, I want the major banks at 0 personally, wouldn't pay a penny more to hold that garbage (all my homies hate the financials sector)
|
||||
|
||||
Alright, so we can *seemingly* use the falling stock price of banks as a predictive indicator for upwards GME price action. Do note, I didn't conduct any significance tests or anything, this is all simply from comparing candle charts and looking for similarities/differences.
|
||||
|
||||
Speaking of comparing candle charts, something super interesting was brought to my attention in a group discussion, big shoutout to [u/roman_axt](https://www.reddit.com/u/roman_axt/) for the hard work you ultra wrinkly brained primate. Below are images of GME and the movie company, courtesy of [u/roman_axt](https://www.reddit.com/u/roman_axt/) as the arrows are drawn so the smoothest of brains can interpret what tf is going on. Do note, these are from about a week ago, so not all candles are up to date (if it even matters)
|
||||
|
||||
[movie company](https://preview.redd.it/k6na9x1ali671.png?width=1642&format=png&auto=webp&s=b76c79799b8653e2f7a1abd4519511f3ec4de0d9)
|
||||
|
||||
[GME](https://preview.redd.it/vsbpkxlqli671.png?width=1652&format=png&auto=webp&s=968f2fdef4407b30ca589c9c7b6ad887dec9fc4e)
|
||||
|
||||
The reason I bring this up is because some of my friends in the trading world (that only trade off price action mind you, they don't really understand the whole GME saga) noticed this as well. It APPEARS that the movie company and GME not only move in a somewhat similar/predictable pattern, but GME seems to be lagging behind by about 2 or so weeks. Do note, this is just an approximation from eyeballing, please take this all with a grain of salt and remember I am retarded.
|
||||
|
||||
Here is a view sent to me by one of my good friends who noticed the same fishiness occurring (from mobile thinkorswim):
|
||||
|
||||
[moveee stonk](https://preview.redd.it/uq7aosflmi671.png?width=457&format=png&auto=webp&s=a068716cd483c2b6793e4d54d98ed2e1f852c613)
|
||||
|
||||
[gAmEsToNk](https://preview.redd.it/1xw8lktmmi671.png?width=457&format=png&auto=webp&s=ad27d18e0a9739aa32ec178e69b29a6a39f9dc4f)
|
||||
|
||||
now what REALLY has me jacked is the pattern lines up from a few weeks ago, when the movie stock was trading for sub $16/share. It then ran to upwards of 70+. I was able to predict the movie stock's relative high's and low's using EW as well, which I've gotta say is actually super exciting. I own none, BUT it worked on a seemingly "impossible" to time stock. Idk about you, but I don't believe in coincidences.
|
||||
|
||||
Disclaimer, I hodl ZERO of the movie stock, I have always believed it was a distraction. the fact that the media is talking about it should tell you enough.
|
||||
|
||||
Now let's tie this assumption into my GME elliot waves analysis, try not to get too jacked:
|
||||
|
||||
[4hr](https://preview.redd.it/04006jafni671.png?width=2812&format=png&auto=webp&s=eb668952f63ba29226abd0855cbecd476b479466)
|
||||
|
||||
As stated time and time again, we are in a 3 within a 3 within a 3, which is quite literally an elliot wave trader's wet dream. This setup is valid down to about 113, so I wouldn't worry about "is the structure still valid?" yes. yes it is.
|
||||
|
||||
This is literally as bullish a setup you can get, all we need is a match to light the fuse. Our cycle 3 (white line) is targeting at the MINIMUM 440, though I would love to see the 1.618:1 ratio hit, as is most common for wave 3. This puts GME at roughly 582, though remember this is all pre squeeze.
|
||||
|
||||
As always, the motto is simple. Buy hodl, sell for life changing money (not no 10k/share bullshit, 8 figures/share is life changing in my eyes, and that's just my floor).
|
||||
|
||||
I'm not saying we will break into the 400+ range this week by any means, but man the stars are aligning for some crazy shit to go down. I'm fookin jacked m8.
|
||||
|
||||
Lastly, let's take a look at SPY and the VIX, as we can use each as a tool to gauge not only sentiment, but potential fuckery before it happens. In my post regarding the SP500 and GME, I brought up how In the January squeeze, SPY took a fucking HIT as GME broke into the hundreds for the first time ever. Here's my view of SPY:
|
||||
|
||||
[4hr](https://preview.redd.it/tg53oi4ioi671.png?width=2830&format=png&auto=webp&s=fb523f927bed85a65d2e1a43b2b000295e84d8bf)
|
||||
|
||||
NGL, SPY is kind of in no man's land right now. I'll have to see how we open to have a better idea of where it's going. By all means this COULD be the beginning of our long awaited bear market, but it could very well form an impulsive wave 1 to the upside to make for a final push to around 430 before shit hits the fan
|
||||
|
||||
My OWN PERSONAL THESIS is that we will see the markets pumped to valhalla 1 last time to try and draw as many "suckers" in so wall street can offload the bag at the peak. Put yourself in their shoes, seems like a logical play to strike fear into everyone, then prop the markets up a bit longer to make everyone think its okay, then proceed to dump the bag on them
|
||||
|
||||
Lastly, the VIX, the fear/volatility indicator:
|
||||
|
||||
[VIX](https://preview.redd.it/58x900k3pi671.png?width=2802&format=png&auto=webp&s=5ee14be1a71b82ca0ab2cde627b5e47467dad7f5)
|
||||
|
||||
Finished up 16% on friday? spicy. In one of my posts I mentioned how we can use the VIX to gauge when GME will potentially do something erratic. just compare the spikes of the VIX and GME, you'll see there's at least some correlation there. I mean shit, end of january? Clear as kenny's "for sale" sign on his marked down penthouse that he suddenly is in a rush to sell. wonder why? (I think it sold actually lol, even funnier).
|
||||
|
||||
I'm preparing for the best while always expecting the worst. I'm never disappointed this way and always excited, 10/10 would recommend.
|
||||
|
||||
June 30 is the end of the grace period for banks, worth noting. I'm expecting the VIX to FLY when that happens, though again, pure speculation.
|
||||
|
||||
TLDR: worth the read. Banks falling is a potential indicator that GME will do some crazy shit, GME also *appears* to be lagging behind the movie stock. That part is pure speculation, but speculation is part of the fun part no? (Sorry the song doesn't fit perfectly, you'd be surprised how much time i spend trying to link a fitting song lol. as long as you're jacked, i consider this a job well done)
|
||||
|
||||
Now Imma go get high af so I'm well rested for MONDAY🚀 🚀 🚀
|
||||
|
||||
edit: funny story cause y'all are fam, I went to the porsche dealer yesterday to test drive my post-moass whip, and the salesman googled me before I came in to make sure I wasn't some degenerate looking to crash their pristine GT4. I get there, and the salesman said he googled me and knew me as the elliot wave guy. Simulation confirmed. during the drive we talked about trading, I showed him my wave count, hopefully he got some GME. idk, random. Thought I'd share cause I thought it's a nice story. This movement is bigger than we can comprehend. EW guy is in the bio of my socials, so he put 2 and 2 together after googling my real name.
|
||||
|
||||
Edit 2: proof I went and they let me drive the gt4: <https://imgur.com/a/uzTn3OR>
|
@ -0,0 +1,145 @@
|
||||
Wait... Is NSCC-002 about to turn the T+21/T+35 loop into a death spiral of T+0 as we approach Q2 end?
|
||||
======================================================================================================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/Criand](https://www.reddit.com/user/Criand/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/o5ingt/wait_is_nscc002_about_to_turn_the_t21t35_loop/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
[Possible DD 👨🔬](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22Possible%20DD%20%F0%9F%91%A8%E2%80%8D%F0%9F%94%AC%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||
0\. Preface
|
||||
|
||||
I am not a financial advisor. I do not provide financial advice. Many thoughts here are my opinion, and others can be speculative.
|
||||
|
||||
So, NSCC-002 just got approved, along with NSCC-801 for one-hour margin calls. Not only did it get approved, it got accelerated approval and will be in effect Wednesday, June 23rd.
|
||||
|
||||
This got me JACKED. But of course don't get too hyped just because of me. It could all be a nothing burger in the end. But, there's some crazy shit going down that I think is telling of what is about to come.
|
||||
|
||||
There's also comments of "these rules mean nothing until they are enforced". Yes, I agree. But, consider the fact that the NSCC, ICC, OCC, DTC have all been drafting up rules to protect themselves in the event of member defaults and extreme market stress. They aren't just drafting these up to say, "Meh. Nevermind". The NSCC, ICC, OCC, DTC are full of members who are NOT short on GameStop or other positions that put these entities at risk. The other members have influence and do not want to be dragged down either. It's a battle of survival.
|
||||
|
||||
I also apologize if anyone has already posted about this. I do know that [/u/dentisttft](https://www.reddit.com/u/dentisttft/) had identified these SLD periods in their post about T+35 when tying in the spikes of price! Such a smart ape! I'm going to expand on their post here, identifying the importance of NSCC-002 to the theory.
|
||||
|
||||
A comment by [/u/minnowstogetherstonk](https://www.reddit.com/u/minnowstogetherstonk/) also encouraged this discussion, first identifying [that T+35/T+21 could turn into T+0 that feeds on itself.](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/o4y2so/nscc2021002_approved_with_partial_amendments/h2k0os3?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3) If this is what is about to happen... genius ape!
|
||||
|
||||
I personally think that NSCC-002 will trigger a death-spiral for SHFs as we approach Q2 end, and shit is about to hit the fan across all markets.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/q1te0jsbzr671.png?width=1686&format=png&auto=webp&s=4407f66bc6efcdd10e5d6323bea7bc2611371385)
|
||||
|
||||
Awww shit
|
||||
|
||||
1\. NSCC-002 And It's Effects On Liquidity Deposits
|
||||
|
||||
Note: Like I said above, this is expanding off of [/u/dentisttft](https://www.reddit.com/u/dentisttft/)'s post of T+35 found here: [T+35 Is The One True Cycle](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/o155a6/t35_is_the_one_true_cycle_evidence_to_back_my/). It visually showed the NSCC liquidity cycle times and the effects it had on FTDs, which never really clicked until thinking about NSCC-002 a bit more. Give their post a read! :)
|
||||
|
||||
Something big to remember is that NSCC-801 now goes into effect along with NSCC-002, which allows for one-hour margin calls. This means that when a member does not have sufficient liquidity, they will be asked to post it within one hour to the NSCC. If they do not post the liquidity, then the member defaults. And thus, the snappening begins.
|
||||
|
||||
Let's investigate the most important bits of NSCC-002. First, a glance at what the rules used to be and the NSCC's concern driving the rule change**:**
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/yjhyg0vrzr671.png?width=793&format=png&auto=webp&s=1c593670c431dca25f897bf1ffa26197b3b60fc9)
|
||||
|
||||
NSCC-002 Part 1; Old Liquidity Requirements
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/k7sfq4iszr671.png?width=784&format=png&auto=webp&s=61deac31a63ecb823c3ea5939792043b2b890a87)
|
||||
|
||||
NSCC-002 Part 2; Old Liquidity Requirements
|
||||
|
||||
Prior to this rule change, the NSCC would collect liquidity deposits only during Monthly Options expiry periods. What is a monthly option? It is the third Friday of each month:
|
||||
|
||||
- January 15
|
||||
|
||||
- February 19
|
||||
|
||||
- March 19
|
||||
|
||||
- April 16
|
||||
|
||||
- May 21
|
||||
|
||||
- June 18
|
||||
|
||||
- July 16
|
||||
|
||||
- Etc.
|
||||
|
||||
The NSCC realized that shit could get really wonky between those liquidity periods of the monthly options. These volatile movements in the markets would put the NSCC itself at risk due to some of its members positions. So, they decided to draft up this rule which allowed them to not only grab liquidity around monthly options, but to be able to ask for more liquidity on a daily basis. This allows the NSCC to take hold of volatility and say, "enough is enough, you're done for".
|
||||
|
||||
Now, check this out:
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/754z0dte1s671.png?width=799&format=png&auto=webp&s=736bb773f6515211f916788f10fe1ba914c1569c)
|
||||
|
||||
NSCC-002 Part 2; New Liquidity Requirements
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/wp8f279f1s671.png?width=741&format=png&auto=webp&s=cae04b68606972c68160dc782ad61d53a9bbac03)
|
||||
|
||||
NSCC-002 Part 2; New Liquidity Requirements
|
||||
|
||||
The NSCC defined a period of grabbing liquidity and holding it to be 2 business days prior to monthly expiration, and ending 7 days after monthly expiration. From the dates listed above, this gives you the following time periods of liquidity deposits for monthly expirations:
|
||||
|
||||
| Monthly Option Date | Liquidity Deposit Given By Member To NSCC | Liquidity Deposit Returned To Member From NSCC |
|
||||
| --- | --- | --- |
|
||||
| January 15 | January 13 | January 27 |
|
||||
| February 19 | February 17 | March 2 |
|
||||
| March 19 | March 17 | March 30 |
|
||||
| April 16 | April 14 | April 27 |
|
||||
| May 21 | May 19 | June 2 |
|
||||
| June 18 | June 16 | June 29 |
|
||||
|
||||
And if you remember from [/u/dentisttft](https://www.reddit.com/u/dentisttft/)'s posts, these periods all contain the T+21/T+35 dates of January 25, February 24, March 25, April 26, May 25, and June 24. So it appears that, as [/u/dentisttft](https://www.reddit.com/u/dentisttft/) concluded, that they struggle with liquidity during these time periods of FTD deliveries and the price gets much greater upward momentum.
|
||||
|
||||
Going back to the images above of NSCC-002... notice that in the old rule that the amount of liquidity that needed to be posted for monthly expirations was based on settlement activity of the prior 24 months. That's a lot of leeway on how much liquidity is needed per member as it was not checking real-time data.
|
||||
|
||||
NOW... the NSCC is changing it to a daily calculation. It's no longer a one-and-done deal of the monthly liquidity based on the prior 24 months. It is going to be based on a constant check of real-time data. This can shift the total liquidity required from the previous rule up significantly, mainly because it is no longer based on the prior 24 months of settlement activity.
|
||||
|
||||
2\. T+21/T+35 Loop Turns Into A T+0 Death Spiral
|
||||
|
||||
Remember how shit went absolutely wild around March 10th? That was outside of a liquidity deposit phase. And then, the price was tanked and brought down severely JUST BEFORE the next liquidity deposit was required.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/yv2xmolw2s671.png?width=251&format=png&auto=webp&s=972401702a7cdee5648397fb0a827f137d3c1902)
|
||||
|
||||
GME Price Action Prior To Next Liquidity Requirement
|
||||
|
||||
In fact, something curious is that the price has never been above $228 entering the next liquidity posting date, and has never been above $300 during these liquidity dates. Hmmm? Margin call price could be dangerously close. And with NSCC-002/801, it can absolutely screw the SHFs.
|
||||
|
||||
What does this all mean in the end? Well, it can turn the T+21/T+35 loop into a T+0 death spiral.
|
||||
|
||||
They used to have to post liquidity two days prior to the monthly options. But now, the NSCC has the discretion to ask for MORE liquidity at ANY time based on daily movements of prices. The previous liquidity posting was a one-and-done deal instead of a liquidity requirement that would constantly update every day of the year. And if they fail these new liquidity checks? One. Hour. Margin calls.
|
||||
|
||||
Here's a figure based on [/u/dentisttft](https://www.reddit.com/u/dentisttft/)'s liquidity deposit phases identifying what could happen starting Wednesday, June 23rd:
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/ebuouwrl4s671.png?width=1536&format=png&auto=webp&s=adb54e7938d647d2f1d43f1b9ccbaeeac3701cad)
|
||||
|
||||
GME Price Action And Liquidity Deposit Phases
|
||||
|
||||
This could very well be why they are trying to obliterate the price at the moment.
|
||||
|
||||
The next FTD spike can cause the price to absolutely soar into a price range which requires more liquidity, making it harder for them to suppress the price, and pushing GME more towards the margin call price. Which then feeds on itself requiring more liquidity, and it continues on an absolute death spiral.
|
||||
|
||||
Which can then lead to this:
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/emkfeo659s671.png?width=1536&format=png&auto=webp&s=a1459a1ed24e63e7193930567c2dbcd1c4917884)
|
||||
|
||||
Happy GME TA
|
||||
|
||||
2\. Urgency to Approve NSCC-002; Quarter End Of June 30th; Meeting Between Biden, Powell, Yellen, Gensler
|
||||
|
||||
Guess what? The 2008 crash "started" around the end of Q3 with the collapse of Lehman Bros on September 15, 2008. End of quarters are when the system gets really strained due to the underlying plumbing of the markets and the necessity to pump balance sheets.
|
||||
|
||||
> Banks' "reporting" dates are known inflection points in the short-term funding markets and typically fall at the end of the month, quarter, and of course the year. But periodically, the 15th of the month is also a pressure point. - [Source](https://blog.pimco.com/en/2019/09/repo-rate-spike-a-tail-of-low-liquidity)
|
||||
|
||||
Fast forward to when the Fed attempted to reverse QE. A year after performing QT (reverse of QE), the repo market blew up to 10% interest on September 15, 2019 due to way way way too many loans that had to be handled. You can see how strain on the markets starts to amplify around particular dates of Quarter-ends and occasionally the 15th of months.
|
||||
|
||||
We're approaching the end of Q2 which is June 30th. Hm. Quarter end?! Sound familiar? 👀
|
||||
|
||||
The NSCC-002/801 is having accelerated effectiveness. There is huuuge urgency to get this passed for margin requirements and margin calling members. Why would they be pushing this to get it out the door? I think shits about to hit the fan. They NEED to protect themselves.
|
||||
|
||||
Something else to note is that Biden, Yellen, Gensler, and Powell all met for "Climate Change" discussions today.
|
||||
|
||||
> "The regulators reported that the financial system is in strong condition," the White House said in a readout of the meeting. - [Source](https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2021/06/21/joe-biden-live-updates/)
|
||||
|
||||
That's the entire context of the quote. That the financial system is "in strong condition". What are they actually doing at this meeting? Something similar to discussing letting X Y and Z fail just like they discussed letting Lehman Bros fail in 2008?
|
||||
|
||||
The [Jungle Beat Monday Post](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/o54hl2/the_jungle_beat_monday_06212021/) talked about this very briefly and it was something I latched onto immediately. I remembered [the meeting for 2008](https://www.cnbc.com/2018/09/12/bernanke-paulson-and-geithner-say-they-bailed-out-wall-street-to-help-main-street.html) but did not connect the dots to this meeting between Biden, Powell, Yellen, and Gensler possibly being similar in scope.
|
||||
|
||||
Wild times we live in. But remember - don't fuckin' dance.
|
@ -0,0 +1,121 @@
|
||||
Calculating potential Short Interest from Married Put remnants and Share Rehypothecation
|
||||
|
||||
========================================================================================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/AlexanderHood](https://www.reddit.com/user/AlexanderHood/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/mtnohj/calculating_potential_short_interest_from_married/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
[DD 👨🔬](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22DD%20%F0%9F%91%A8%E2%80%8D%F0%9F%94%AC%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||
There have been a lot of posts floating around the subs postulating the real short interest.
|
||||
|
||||
I wanted to take a stab at it using what we know for sure about the mechanism for how the FTD's are hidden, the latest put option open interest and why the new DTC rule about double-borrow shares was implemented.
|
||||
|
||||
Assumptions
|
||||
|
||||
1\. Citadel and friends are using the Married Put method of hiding FTD's.
|
||||
|
||||
2\. Any Put for a strike of $20 or less for the rest of the year is an irrational option play no sane person would make.
|
||||
|
||||
3\. These apprently irrational puts are in fact part of a rational mechanism for hiding a FTD.
|
||||
|
||||
4\. The current outstanding number of irrational puts is correlated to the number of FTD's resulting from naked shorts.
|
||||
|
||||
5\. Basically all available shares to legally borrow have been legally borrowed.
|
||||
|
||||
Shares in cash accounts should not be made available to borrow. (Note the use of the S-word) With much of retail on RH or other brokers who may not be able to resist the temptation to make free money, I'm going to assume the borrow is 100%. (See disc below. If you disagree, swap in your own number and recalculate.) Due to re-hypothecation where a share sold short can be borrowed again and sold short again, the shares borrow number *could* exceed 100%. The daily available shares available to borrow often taps the zero shares mark before magically finding more shares the next day.
|
||||
|
||||
Let's math
|
||||
|
||||
GME Shares outstanding: 70.03M
|
||||
|
||||
GME Float: 45.99M
|
||||
|
||||
Irrational Puts from now until Jan 2023:
|
||||
|
||||
Apr 16 7,067
|
||||
|
||||
Apr 30 6,124
|
||||
|
||||
May 7 577
|
||||
|
||||
May 14 135
|
||||
|
||||
May 21 3,648
|
||||
|
||||
May 28 150
|
||||
|
||||
Jul 16 299,922
|
||||
|
||||
Oct 15 14,736
|
||||
|
||||
Nov 19 22,760
|
||||
|
||||
Jan 22 220,355
|
||||
|
||||
Jan 23 43,984
|
||||
|
||||
Total puts: 619,458
|
||||
|
||||
Shares equivaluent: 61,945,800
|
||||
|
||||
Shares borrowed & rehypothecated for shorting: 45.99M (100% of the float)
|
||||
|
||||
Shares failed to deliver: 61.95M (From Married Put remnants)
|
||||
|
||||
Estaimted Short Interest: 107.94M total shares
|
||||
|
||||
Estimated Short Interest: 234% using the proper industry-standard technique for calculating it
|
||||
|
||||
Estimated Short Interest: 70% using the dumb new method S3 Partners invented of calculating it
|
||||
|
||||
Discussion
|
||||
|
||||
Through the magic of re-borrowing a share sold short, there could be an infinite number of shares rehypothecated but in practice if we assume all shares purchased and placed in a cash account by and honorable broker, only X% of shares could be borrowed back so we have a case of diminishing returns. No idea what X% is here, but if you are reading this post please please move your shares to a cash account or take some action to prevent them from being borrowed. *Small changes to this X percentage have a dramatic effect on the ability to do this type of re-borrowing.*
|
||||
|
||||
Conjecture
|
||||
|
||||
Personally, I think X% here is 50%, which after maximum re-borrowing works out to be equal to the entire float. i.e. Half the shares are not available to borrow but the ones that are have been re-borrowed. (0.5 + 0.25 + 0.125 + 0.0625 + 0.03125 ... = 0.99) This is why I made the assumption above that shares equal to 100% of the float have been borrowed.
|
||||
|
||||
DTC Borrow Rule
|
||||
|
||||
Yes, the new DTC rules would prohibit this type of re-borrowing because you cannot borrow a share that has alredy been borrowed. All the shares borrowed more than once would have to be covered, which is half the outstanding float if you subscribe to my 50% estimate.
|
||||
|
||||
Very Conjectural
|
||||
|
||||
From the latest Bloomberg dump, the Institutions own 122% of the float and from my math we own about 105%. This is actually the reason I did this specific calculation, because I wanted to know if retail owned enough shares to force a moass even if all the Institutions were ordered to paper-hand by the PTB. If Institutions paper-hand in exchange for a seat at the asset auction for Citadels corpse, the moass hits Millions per shares rather than Trillions per share.
|
||||
|
||||
And at a minimum, 61.6M shares must be covered just to get back to a (legal) 100% Short Interest on the stock.
|
||||
|
||||
Sources
|
||||
|
||||
[What DFV knows](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/mtftsq/i_think_i_figured_out_what_dfv_knows_and_its/)
|
||||
|
||||
[Original Post on Married Puts](https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/comments/mgj0j1/the_naked_shorting_scam_revealed_lending_of/)
|
||||
|
||||
[Finra](https://finra-markets.morningstar.com/MarketData/EquityOptions/detail.jsp?query=126%3A0P000002CH&sdkVersion=2.59.0)
|
||||
|
||||
[Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/GME/key-statistics?p=GME) [Stonk Tracker](https://gme.crazyawesomecompany.com/)
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
**Relevant Comment by [u/Soulsauce042689](https://www.reddit.com/user/Soulsauce042689/)**
|
||||
|
||||
Just a quick couple of notes, on some common misunderstandings that DO NOT contradict OP's points, but do shore up some things:
|
||||
|
||||
Real shares can not be double borrowed DTC has been tracking lent shares since 2008 if not longer. [Relevant filing: DTC-2021-05]
|
||||
|
||||
"if that's the case, how does the SI% reach 226% then?" Best possible answer I can come with is naked shorting - illegal if entity is not a bonafide market maker.
|
||||
|
||||
* * * * *
|
||||
|
||||
Rehypothection is a lender (broker in this case) using collateralized assets as collateral to borrow from another lender. An example - your home is collateral for your mortgage, your mortgage lender may use your home to gain borrow from their lender.
|
||||
|
||||
Relevant note on margin accounts - In margin accounts up to 140% of your equity can be used in rehypothection to borrow capital from another lender.
|
||||
|
||||
* * * * *
|
||||
|
||||
One big piece to watch this week (22/04) is if brokers have lent more shares than they have the ability to cover. I'm going to be keeping a close eye on borrowable shares and borrow rate. If a significant portion or brokers are over extended on lent shares we can see a massive recall resulting in shorts being (hopefully) forced to cover.
|
@ -0,0 +1,133 @@
|
||||
May Update on the Married-Put Forensic Analysis
|
||||
|
||||
===============================================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/AlexanderHood](https://www.reddit.com/user/AlexanderHood/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nacqtm/may_update_on_the_marriedput_forensic_analysis/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
[DD 👨🔬](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22DD%20%F0%9F%91%A8%E2%80%8D%F0%9F%94%AC%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||
About a month ago I did an analysis for the real short interest (SI) for GME using what know about the legal Married Put mechanism for creating naked shorts.
|
||||
|
||||
I wanted to revisit what we know for sure about the mechanism for how the FTD's are hidden, the latest put option open interest and why the new DTC rule about double-borrow shares was implemented. Yes, I know some people don't think these remnants don't mean what we think they mean, but maybe they do.
|
||||
|
||||
TLDR Married Puts continue to be used to create naked shorts. Short Interest is at least 152% and increasing by over 100,000 shares per week.
|
||||
|
||||
Assumptions
|
||||
|
||||
1\. Citadel and friends are using the Married Put method of hiding FTD's.
|
||||
|
||||
2\. Any Put at a strike of $20 or less is an irrational option play no sane person would make.
|
||||
|
||||
3\. These apprently irrational puts are in fact part of a rational mechanism for hiding a FTD.
|
||||
|
||||
4\. The current outstanding number of irrational puts is correlated to the number of FTD's resulting from naked shorts.
|
||||
|
||||
What does irrational mean? Betting GME will drop below $1 by the end of the year is bonkers.
|
||||
|
||||
Let's math!
|
||||
|
||||
GME Shares outstanding: 70.77M
|
||||
|
||||
GME Float: 47.75M
|
||||
|
||||
Irrational Puts from now until Jan 2023:
|
||||
|
||||
| Option Expiry | Open Interest Apr 18 | Open Interest May 11 |
|
||||
|
||||
| --- | --- | --- |
|
||||
|
||||
| Apr 16 | 7,067 | 0 |
|
||||
|
||||
| Apr 30 | 6,124 | 0 |
|
||||
|
||||
| May 14 | 135 | 683 |
|
||||
|
||||
| May 21 | 3,648 | 3,990 |
|
||||
|
||||
| May 28 | 150 | 412 |
|
||||
|
||||
| Jun 4 | 0 | 64 |
|
||||
|
||||
| Jun 11 | 0 | 11 |
|
||||
|
||||
| Jun 18 | 0 | 1,046 |
|
||||
|
||||
| Jun 25 | 0 | 13 |
|
||||
|
||||
| Jul 16 | 299,922 | 303,927 |
|
||||
|
||||
| Oct 15 | 14,736 | 19,223 |
|
||||
|
||||
| Nov 19 | 22,760 | 22,601 |
|
||||
|
||||
| Jan 21, 2022 | 220,355 | 224,653 |
|
||||
|
||||
| Jan 20, 2023 | 43,984 | 46,136 |
|
||||
|
||||
| Total puts | 619, 458 | 622,769 |
|
||||
|
||||
Shares short from Married Put remnants on April 18th: 61.9M
|
||||
|
||||
Shares short from Married Put remnants on May 11th: 62.2M
|
||||
|
||||
Ok, what is this?
|
||||
|
||||
The number of naked short shares implied by Married Put remnants has increased by 331,100 shares in the last three weeks.
|
||||
|
||||
- Over 13k of irrational puts that expired worthless in the last three weeks but the total number of Irrational Puts continues to increase. Not only are they are continuing to utilize this method of shorting, but they are increasing in number as well by apx 100k per week.
|
||||
|
||||
- Ortex has 'exchange reported' Short Interest at 22.2%, or 10.6M shares.
|
||||
|
||||
- Combing the calculated naked short interest of 62.2M with the official short interest, we get 72.8M shares short or *152.5% SI*.
|
||||
|
||||
- On May 21st we have another 3,648 of irrational puts expiring, we'll see if they get 'rolled' over as well.
|
||||
|
||||
- The next BIG batch of Irrational Puts is set to expire in just 8 weeks, July 16th, over 300,000 or nearly HALF of them our there in fact. If we see a fresh batch of about 300,000 puts get created that day for an Op Ex six months in the future, I'll be on the phone to the SEC telling them they need to end this little charade. But do they need to get rolled? No. If apes keep buying, they need to short that number of shares, whatever the cost and by any means.
|
||||
|
||||
Discussion
|
||||
|
||||
Could the Short Interest be higher than this? ABSOLUTELY. This calculation does NOT include short shares created directly using legal Market Maker provisions and have not yet been covered by that Market Maker. This calculation does NOT include legal short shares created using the re-borrowing method. This calculation does not include shares shorted via the ETF's. (62 [ETF's](https://www.etf.com/stock/GME) hold 10.5M GME shares.) This calculation does not include any other means of shorting.
|
||||
|
||||
The new DTCC rule SR-DTC-2021-005 would prohibit the re-borrowing of a borrowed share. Will that rule apply the NSCC Share Borrow Program as well? Let's hope so. They pulled the draft of this but I'm hoping to see it make a return soon. (See links below for more detail on 005.)
|
||||
|
||||
Once the new DTCC rule prohibiting the re-borrowing of borrowed shares kicks in we should expect the borrowing costs to spike like crazy. It is the end, effectively, and will trigger squeezes everywhere. They pulled the first draft, probably becasuse the timing isn't right. Anxiously awaiting the re-release of 005 and the implementation timing. Aren't we all!
|
||||
|
||||
Disposing of the Evidence
|
||||
|
||||
When these expire, they're gone. Wiped off the books. Of course they are, these puts are worthless after all. Never intended to be exercised.
|
||||
|
||||
~~HELP! If anyone has the options data from Jan 15th and Mar 16th, would like to see how many more of these puts expired on those dates. i.e. How much were they using this before GME went all baby-squeeze January 28th?~~ Edit: Got the data, stay tuned! Thanks to Full_Option_6067 for the info! There are more shorts!
|
||||
|
||||
The advantage of picking options expiries with each quarter is that you get super-cost efficient strikes at like $0.50 but the big disadvantage is that the open interest SITS out there for months on end, waiting for some smooth-brained apes to figure out what it means.
|
||||
|
||||
When are they going to end the Married-Put shanannigans? Who knows.
|
||||
|
||||
Total Conjecture
|
||||
|
||||
Why was 005 delayed? Officially, for "reformatting". Tin-foil hat time: After posting it they found out this loophole for legally naked shorting stocks is in widespread use by every Hedgie and on hundreds of other distressed stocks. It's not just AMC and GME. If they nerf it we could be looking at a crack-up boom in the market and dozens of bankrupt hedges. Why a crack-up boom?? I'll give you a few million reasons: [Because every FTD is a naked short](https://wherearetheshares.com/).
|
||||
|
||||
The Great Halvening
|
||||
|
||||
[Never forget this happened](https://www.reddit.com/user/RubinoffButtChug69/comments/lfdcv1/fintel_changed_their_short_volume_data_after_my/?context=3)
|
||||
|
||||
I saw the Great Halvening happen with my own eyes, so I've just been multiplying all their SI numbers by 2 to figure out the in-adjusted SI. Where they hid the rest of the original '140%' short of GameStop ... remains a mystery.
|
||||
|
||||
Sources
|
||||
|
||||
[Original Post on Married Puts](https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/comments/mgj0j1/the_naked_shorting_scam_revealed_lending_of/)
|
||||
|
||||
[DTC-005 Original Doc](https://zenodo.org/record/4718936/files/005%20-%20SEC%20SR-DTC-2021-005-2%20-%20submission%20of%20rule%20finding.pdf?download=1)
|
||||
|
||||
[DTC-005 Analysis](https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/comments/mi8mo9/legal_interpretation_of_the_proposed_srdtc2021005/)
|
||||
|
||||
[Share Borrowing Program](https://smithonstocks.com/part-7-illegal-naked-shorting-dtcc-continuous-net-settlement-and-stock-borrowing-programs-have-loopholes-that-facilitate-illegal-naked-shorting/)
|
||||
|
||||
[Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/GME/key-statistics?p=GME)
|
||||
|
||||
[Stonk Tracker](https://gme.crazyawesomecompany.com/)
|
||||
|
||||
Edit: As requested 🚀🚀🚀
|
@ -0,0 +1,147 @@
|
||||
May 19th Update on the Married-Put Forensic Analysis
|
||||
====================================================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/AlexanderHood](https://www.reddit.com/user/AlexanderHood/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/ngp969/may_19th_update_on_the_marriedput_forensic/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
[DD 👨🔬](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22DD%20%F0%9F%91%A8%E2%80%8D%F0%9F%94%AC%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||
If you're feeling blue cause of all the red, I have some confirmation for your bias right here. :)
|
||||
|
||||
You shouldn't need it, cause the [004](https://www.sec.gov/rules/sro/occ.htm) news should have every part of your body totally jacked.
|
||||
|
||||
Since we just had such a blood-red day I wanted to check the current option Open Interest to see how much of todays selling pressure was from Naked Shorting. Well, we know Apes certainly aren't selling, so its gotta be bare nekkid!
|
||||
|
||||
This is an update to my previous post on Married-Put Remnant Forensics [here.](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nacqtm/may_update_on_the_marriedput_forensic_analysis/) If you haven't read that, read it first for the context of this post.
|
||||
|
||||
TLDR Short Interest increased by another 5% last week to 155% of the float and there may be even more shorts hiding in short-term put options for an additional 17% short interest.
|
||||
|
||||
No, seriously, go back and read that first one then come back.
|
||||
|
||||
Let's go!
|
||||
|
||||
Updated Calculated Short Interest from Married-Put Remnants
|
||||
|
||||
GME Shares outstanding: 70.77M
|
||||
|
||||
GME Float: 47.75M
|
||||
|
||||
Irrational Puts from now until Jan 2023:
|
||||
|
||||
| Option Expiry | Open Interest Apr 18 | Open Interest May 11 | Open Interest May 28 |
|
||||
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
|
||||
| Apr 16 | 7,067 | 0 | 0 |
|
||||
| Apr 30 | 6,124 | 0 | 0 |
|
||||
| May 14 | 135 | 683 | 0 |
|
||||
| May 21 | 3,648 | 3,990 | 0 |
|
||||
| May 28 | 150 | 412 | 484 |
|
||||
| Jun 4 | 0 | 64 | 211 |
|
||||
| Jun 11 | 0 | 11 | 108 |
|
||||
| Jun 18 | 0 | 1,046 | 1,458 |
|
||||
| Jun 25 | 0 | 13 | 28 |
|
||||
| Jul 16 | 299,922 | 303,927 | 303,679 |
|
||||
| Oct 15 | 14,736 | 19,223 | 19,285 |
|
||||
| Nov 19 | 22,760 | 22,601 | 22,527 |
|
||||
| Jan 21, 2022 | 220,355 | 224,653 | 226,991 |
|
||||
| Jan 20, 2023 | 43,984 | 46,136 | 45,859 |
|
||||
| Total puts | 619, 458 | 622,769 | 624,608 |
|
||||
| Shares short | 61.88M | 62.27M | 62.46M |
|
||||
|
||||
Ok, what does fox say?
|
||||
|
||||
The number of naked short shares implied by Married Put remnants has increased by the equivalent 184,900 shares in just the last week.
|
||||
|
||||
- Ortex has 'exchange reported' Short Interest at 11.82M shares.
|
||||
|
||||
- 4,600 put contracts have expired since the previous post but there is still a net *increase* of 1,839 contracts.
|
||||
|
||||
- Combining the calculated Naked Short interest of 62.46M with the official 11.82M short interest, we get 74.28M shares short or *155.6% SI*.
|
||||
|
||||
So, the Short Interest has *increased* by another ~5% over the last week while GME went from $146 to $168. (Wow. Apes are crushing!)
|
||||
|
||||
The Great Put Embiggening
|
||||
|
||||
Thanks to [u/Full_Option_8067](https://www.reddit.com/u/Full_Option_8067/) for digging up the options chain from January!
|
||||
|
||||
Back on January 15th the open interest for sub $20 Jan 2022 Puts was 22,278 which today has over 223,653 puts. The March sub $20 Puts was 29,374 and today that has ballooned to 224,653 puts.
|
||||
|
||||
Yup. No real suprise here, the baby-squeeze on Jan 28th sorta marked the beginning of the marry-them-puts shenannigans to drive the price action down down down.
|
||||
|
||||
Could this indicate naked shorting was occuring back in Jan? Possibly and probably. Certainly not to the extent it is today or at least the means to short GME were not predominantly Married-Put naked shorting.
|
||||
|
||||
The Wedding Planner
|
||||
|
||||
Considering the Put part of a Married-Put trade is NEVER gonna be used, it makes sense to minimize the cost the these types of puts. If you look at the January 2022 put options, the $0.50 strike costs just 2 cents! Two freaking cents! I guess even hedgies don't like throwing money away if they don't have to.
|
||||
|
||||
This explains why the pattern for these is densely clustered around just two Option dates a super-low-strikes. July 16th and Jan 21, 2022. These are the most cost-effective places to dump irrational puts. Only one problem, they stick out like a sore thumb. This got me thinking, where else can they hide shorts?
|
||||
|
||||
When you make an Assumption ...
|
||||
|
||||
When I wrote my original post on this topic I picked $20 as the cutoff strike price to delimit rational from irrational puts. I did that by eyeballing the double-distribution of puts across the Option Expiry dates and found a valley. Normal stocks don't have such exaggerated double humps and instead call/put action *generally* creates a nice camel hump pattern around the current stock price with the sporradic YOLO or fatfinger bet outliers.
|
||||
|
||||
That was a bad assumption and the more correct way to do it would be to define irrational puts by their implied volatility or more directly by their cost-effectiveness, knowing that anything spent on the cost of that put option is totally written off.
|
||||
|
||||
BUT, you can't just load up on *half a million* $0.01 put options in July at a $0.50 strike! That's gonna stand out like a big turd on the sidewalk, apes or somebody might notice that. You gotta spread those puts around a bit. So they grabbed 148k at $0.50 strike, 30k more at the $1.00 strike and well ... that's really not very well spread out. In thier defense, only the July 16 and Jan 21, 2022 Option Expiry dates have these ridiculous strikes so if there really wasn't a lot of other places to spread these turds out.
|
||||
|
||||
Shotgun Weddings
|
||||
|
||||
After snorting a few more crayons and reconsidering what an 'irrational put' is defined as, the next most obvious place to look was ANY puts that are really cost-effective with high-implied volality. (i.e. fat chance in hell of hitting that strike price.)
|
||||
|
||||
Of course, SHORT TERM put options!
|
||||
|
||||
Perfect place to hide more turds. You can get them cheap cause of the greeks, very often less than ten cents for the contract! Yeah, they expire within days, but there is a solution to that: Let them. Buy more next week.
|
||||
|
||||
Let's look at the irrational puts for the next couple of months option expiry and filter for *ten cent* put options with 200%+ Implied Volatility:
|
||||
|
||||
| Option Expiry | 10 cent puts, high IV |
|
||||
| --- | --- |
|
||||
| May 21 | *75,971* |
|
||||
| May 28 | 2,717 |
|
||||
| Jun 4 | 1,036 |
|
||||
| Jun 11 | 306 |
|
||||
| Jun 18 | 1,948 |
|
||||
| Jun 25 | 36 |
|
||||
| Total | 82,014 |
|
||||
|
||||
Boom! This Friday, nearly 76 thousand *worthless* puts expiring. Go look at the put option chain yourself [here](https://www.barchart.com/stocks/quotes/GME/options?expiration=2021-05-21-m&moneyness=allRows). Seriously, look at it. Does it make any sense? Dirt cheap puts with over 300% IV all the way up to a $80 strike. Who would buy an insane option like this? Anyone here think GME is going to drop by half in two days? Yeah, me either.
|
||||
|
||||
That's potentially another 8.2M shares short, bringing our calculated Short Interest up to 82.5M shares short or 172.8% Shorted of the float.
|
||||
|
||||
How can we confirm they are rolling short-term puts as part of married put trades? We should know Monday, cause the total open interest for irrational puts needs to be maintained in order for them to continue under the pretense of using this as a *legal* means of naked short selling. And this is a ton of open interest that's gotta get rolled. The OI for next week is a mere 2,717 contracts so if we see massive amounts of irrational puts Monday, there you go.
|
||||
|
||||
Could the Short Interest be even higher?
|
||||
|
||||
ABSOLUTELY.
|
||||
|
||||
This calculation does NOT include short shares created directly using legal Market Maker provisions and have not yet been covered (T+21) by that Market Maker. This calculation does NOT include legal short shares created using the re-borrowing method. (See 005 below.) This calculation does not include shares shorted via the ETF's. (62 [ETF's](https://www.etf.com/stock/GME) hold 10.5M GME shares and that undoubtedly all been shorted.)
|
||||
|
||||
Conclusion
|
||||
|
||||
Hedgies r fuk. They're digging an even deeper hole with every passing day. Every time I look at it there are more shorts. Naked shorts, everywhere. And I don't think we've found them all. There could be millions more hidden using 005 re-borrowing and millions more in rolling FTD's. I will not be surprised, if it turns out the real number was closer to 1,000% SI.
|
||||
|
||||
I do believe they are limiting themselves to only *legal* mechanisms for shorting the stock. Otherwise we would *not* see all the evidence they have left behind, like open puts, FTD reports, 13F's, etc. Which is probably a wise decision, when they get busted, none of them will actually go to jail.
|
||||
|
||||
The rate the SI in increasing is clearly unsustainable. The DTCC needs to margin call them ASAP. Every day they delay increases the cost by ~21 thousand shares, or about $210 million a day if the moass geometric mean is $10k. *cough* or higher. ;)
|
||||
|
||||
Sources
|
||||
|
||||
[Citadel 13F - Fintel](https://fintel.io/i13f/citadel-advisors-llc/2021-03-31-0)
|
||||
|
||||
[Original Post on Married Puts](https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/comments/mgj0j1/the_naked_shorting_scam_revealed_lending_of/)
|
||||
|
||||
[DTC-005 Original Doc](https://zenodo.org/record/4718936/files/005%20-%20SEC%20SR-DTC-2021-005-2%20-%20submission%20of%20rule%20finding.pdf?download=1)
|
||||
|
||||
[DTC-005 Analysis](https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/comments/mi8mo9/legal_interpretation_of_the_proposed_srdtc2021005/)
|
||||
|
||||
[Share Borrowing Program](https://smithonstocks.com/part-7-illegal-naked-shorting-dtcc-continuous-net-settlement-and-stock-borrowing-programs-have-loopholes-that-facilitate-illegal-naked-shorting/)
|
||||
|
||||
[Barchart Options](https://www.barchart.com/stocks/quotes/GME/options?expiration=2021-05-21-m&moneyness=allRows)
|
||||
|
||||
[Stonk Tracker](https://gme.crazyawesomecompany.com/)
|
||||
|
||||
Required
|
||||
|
||||
🚀🚀🚀
|
@ -0,0 +1,159 @@
|
||||
May 26th Update on the Married-Put Forensic Analysis - Shorts all the way down
|
||||
|
||||
==============================================================================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/AlexanderHood](https://www.reddit.com/user/AlexanderHood/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nl90c5/may_26th_update_on_the_marriedput_forensic/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
[DD 👨🔬](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22DD%20%F0%9F%91%A8%E2%80%8D%F0%9F%94%AC%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||
T'was the night before MOASS'mas and if you're too jacked to sleep, I have something to keep you jacked until Market Open.
|
||||
|
||||
Following up to my post from last week, [here](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/ngp969/may_19th_update_on_the_marriedput_forensic/).
|
||||
|
||||
If you haven't already that, this business about Married-Put-Remnants and Irrational-Puts won't make much sense, so go catch up and then pop back here after, kthxbye!
|
||||
|
||||
Last week, on Days of our Lives Buying and Hodling ...
|
||||
|
||||
We saw about 75k Irrational Puts expire. Poof! Gone. Where did they go?
|
||||
|
||||
What we did *not* see Monday morning was an additonal 75k Irrational Put options get opened up, that's for sure. What we *did* see yesterday and today, was a nice well-distributed build up of Irrational puts all across the board, spread out like sand on a beach. Totally innocuous.
|
||||
|
||||
Pop quiz hot shot! It's 2:30pm on a Tuesday, GME is ripping faces and chewing bubble-gum, boosters firing from $180 to over $210! What do you do?
|
||||
|
||||
*Buy put options at a $30 strike for this Friday.*
|
||||
|
||||
What??? No. Why on earth would anyone buy that crap? It's worthless. *Irrational*, if you will. ;) But that's exactly what happened today. And a lot more of it.
|
||||
|
||||
(Note: Some of todays largest put option trades were late afternoon, low-strike, low-cost and interestingly, not out of the *PHLX* exchange! Aha!)
|
||||
|
||||
Naked Naked Naked ... Pop Pop Pop
|
||||
|
||||
I've been watching the low-strike put options open interest to see how it changes day-to-day. Here is a comparison of today to yesterday, a snap-shot of some Irrational Puts popping into existence:
|
||||
|
||||
Option Expiry Date: May 28th
|
||||
|
||||
| Strike | OI May 24 | OI May 25 | Delta |
|
||||
|
||||
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
|
||||
|
||||
| $10.00 | 348 | 363 | 15 |
|
||||
|
||||
| $20.00 | 137 | 205 | 68 |
|
||||
|
||||
| $30.00 | 603 | 756 | 153 |
|
||||
|
||||
| $40.00 | 501 | 647 | 146 |
|
||||
|
||||
| $50.00 | 296 | 704 | 408 |
|
||||
|
||||
| $60.00 | 457 | 404 | -53 |
|
||||
|
||||
| $70.00 | 759 | 813 | 54 |
|
||||
|
||||
| $80.00 | 327 | 395 | 68 |
|
||||
|
||||
| $90.00 | 185 | 493 | 308 |
|
||||
|
||||
| $100.00 | 3,006 | 3125 | 119 |
|
||||
|
||||
| $110.00 | 1,027 | 954 | -73 |
|
||||
|
||||
| $120.00 | 806 | 901 | 95 |
|
||||
|
||||
| $130.00 | 560 | 973 | 413 |
|
||||
|
||||
| Sum | 9012 | 10733 | +1,721 |
|
||||
|
||||
With GME soaring, the cost of most of these low-strike options dropped to super-cheap levels. You could pick up puts at even a $130 stike for just $0.23 cents! Looking over the distribution of puts at strikes today, we saw widespread increases all the way up to about the $130 strike. So it would seem that whoever programmed the algo to distribute these evenly doesn't want to pay more than about $0.25 per contract.
|
||||
|
||||
If the Hedgies have a budget of about $0.25 max for Married Put contract, let's take a look at the following week's Op Ex to see if we see the same pattern of evenly distributed puts added today for low-strike options.
|
||||
|
||||
Option Expiry Date: Jun 4
|
||||
|
||||
| Strike | May 24 | May 25 | Delta |
|
||||
|
||||
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
|
||||
|
||||
| $10.00 | 134 | 134 | 0 |
|
||||
|
||||
| $20.00 | 83 | 92 | 9 |
|
||||
|
||||
| $30.00 | 270 | 291 | 21 |
|
||||
|
||||
| $40.00 | 186 | 233 | 47 |
|
||||
|
||||
| $50.00 | 424 | 476 | 52 |
|
||||
|
||||
| $60.00 | 262 | 278 | 16 |
|
||||
|
||||
| $70.00 | 76 | 102 | 26 |
|
||||
|
||||
| $80.00 | 58 | 62 | 4 |
|
||||
|
||||
| $90.00 | 77 | 114 | 37 |
|
||||
|
||||
| $100.00 | 361 | 466 | 105 |
|
||||
|
||||
| $110.00 | 239 | 315 | 76 |
|
||||
|
||||
| $120.00 | 260 | 389 | 129 |
|
||||
|
||||
| $130.00 | 174 | 224 | 50 |
|
||||
|
||||
| Sum | 2604 | 3176 | +572 |
|
||||
|
||||
Yup.
|
||||
|
||||
And we see even more of these Irrational Puts added to June 11th Op Ex contracts, more added into the Hedgie perennial favorite the July 16th contracts and a few more in the Jan 21, 2022 contracts. (Refer to previous post for the last analysis I did for these last two dates.)
|
||||
|
||||
Every day we are seeing more and more of these Short-Term put options come into existence, about 4-5,000 per day representing about 400 to 500,000 shares.
|
||||
|
||||
What does all this mean?
|
||||
|
||||
Short Interest continues to be hidden in Long-Term Low-Strike Put options as well as low-cost Short-Term put options.
|
||||
|
||||
In my previous post I did an analysis using a new criteria for what an Irrational Put is, a contract for $0.10 or less with high IV. Looking at today's newly minted put contracts, these are getting up to the $0.25 range on the high-end, although the *majority* remain clustered below $0.10 there are some few being added at even these higher ranges most likely due to some semi-random algo trying to hide these puts here without accidentally making it totally obvious that they have some specific allocaation.
|
||||
|
||||
What about the puts that expired last week?
|
||||
|
||||
Yes indeed. What about them.
|
||||
|
||||
Nothing. They expired.
|
||||
|
||||
After yesterday and today's powerful confirmation of the T+35, T+21 theory, I am inclined to think the Hedgies just stuck the Market Maker with them. Legally, the Married-Put is used to justify the creation of the Naked Short, the two allow the MM to remain 'neutral'. Ok, but what happen's when those Naked Shorts are still out there and the Put contract that was balancing them out expires? *The MM has to cover them.*
|
||||
|
||||
Not straight away, the day after Op Ex (the following Monday) begins the T+35 part of the FTD cycle. They will cover those shares 35 days hence.
|
||||
|
||||
The MM's are out there covering Naked Shorts on the 35th day, which would start spiking the price action so the SHF need to create *more* Married-Puts to create *more* Naked Shorts to again push GME down.
|
||||
|
||||
Today, GME shot up 20% and the Short Interest *increased*! The MM's are buying to cover which is spiking the price and the SHF continue to drive it down with Married-Put Naked shorts. The SHF have *not* started covering, still just kicking the can another 35 days down the road.
|
||||
|
||||
Implications for Short Interest
|
||||
|
||||
I had previously estimated SI using Married Put remnants at 172%, but now that we are seeing Irrational Puts being created *daily*, that estimate is very, very low. There are way more Irrational Puts in existence, *including Short-Term puts and also expired puts* than I had accounted for. By the time I finish adding all of it together the Short Interest is going to be north of 340% at a minimum.
|
||||
|
||||
Each week as these Short-Term Irrational puts expire, they are kicking off a batch of FTD's that need to get covered ~35 days later. Expired yeah, but the impact they had on the price action when they were first created persists, with GME trading sideways for weeks and weeks on end. Eventually they get covered (often at a lower price) and new Naked Shorts are created to replace them. In the meantime, every Monday a huge new batch of Naked Shorts is being created and *juggled* in a huge T+35 day loop.
|
||||
|
||||
Last week the equivalent of over 7.5M shares worth of puts expired. That doesn't mean every week they have been creating millions of Naked Shorts, but if they want to keep the price action from rising, sufficient Naked Shorts need to be created equal to the total retail buying pressure. How much is that? We'd need to go count all the expired Irrational Puts since Jan to get an estimate. If we knew, we could better estimate the true SI and the MOASS peak & geometric mean. Data from Jan did indicate this practice of using Married-Puts increased by 10x after Jan 28th.
|
||||
|
||||
I really hope Cohen just comes out and tells us how many shares are outstanding. That would be easier. :/
|
||||
|
||||
Sources
|
||||
|
||||
[Original Post on Married Puts](https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/comments/mgj0j1/the_naked_shorting_scam_revealed_lending_of/)
|
||||
|
||||
[DTC-005 Original Doc](https://zenodo.org/record/4718936/files/005%20-%20SEC%20SR-DTC-2021-005-2%20-%20submission%20of%20rule%20finding.pdf?download=1)
|
||||
|
||||
[Share Borrowing Program](https://smithonstocks.com/part-7-illegal-naked-shorting-dtcc-continuous-net-settlement-and-stock-borrowing-programs-have-loopholes-that-facilitate-illegal-naked-shorting/)
|
||||
|
||||
[Barchart Options](https://www.barchart.com/stocks/quotes/GME/options?expiration=2021-05-21-m&moneyness=allRows)
|
||||
|
||||
[Stonk Tracker](https://gme.crazyawesomecompany.com/)
|
||||
|
||||
Required
|
||||
|
||||
🚀🚀🚀
|
160
DD/2021-05-13-Fed-Reverse-Repos-are-Not-Tied-to-Margin-Calls.md
Normal file
160
DD/2021-05-13-Fed-Reverse-Repos-are-Not-Tied-to-Margin-Calls.md
Normal file
@ -0,0 +1,160 @@
|
||||
Counter DD: NY Fed $400 bln reverse repos is not tied to margin calls. It's worse.
|
||||
==================================================================================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/ZKShao](https://www.reddit.com/user/ZKShao/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nbt1sp/counter_dd_ny_fed_400_bln_reverse_repos_is_not/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
[Possible DD 👨🔬](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22Possible%20DD%20%F0%9F%91%A8%E2%80%8D%F0%9F%94%AC%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||
Changed May 16th: Please see Update at bottom of post.
|
||||
|
||||
Today there is hype about an Italian financial news site reporting that the New York Fed has lent 400 billion USD to 39 financial institutes over the past two days. It concludes that big Wall Street parties have been margin called and are panic borrowing from the Fed to make margin. Link: <https://www.money.it/Fed-repo-miliardi-Wall-Street>
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/x2vo22t7cyy61.png?width=697&format=png&auto=webp&s=8bdb221c2f8ba0330f3a9e5601463ce51a2b2c4b)
|
||||
|
||||
Google translated screenshot of the news article
|
||||
|
||||
None of it is correct.
|
||||
|
||||
TL;DR
|
||||
|
||||
- The numbers are about reverse repos, which mean that the Fed is the one borrowing cash and providing US Treasury bonds as collateral.
|
||||
|
||||
- The numbers are about overnight reverse repos (ON RRP) which have same day settlement. The cash makes a roundtrip in the same day so cannot be added together: there will be significant overlap between the numbers of subsequent days.
|
||||
|
||||
- ON RPP rate is currently 0%, which means the Fed borrows cash at 0% interest and provides US Treasury bonds as collateral. The incentive why someone would lend to the Fed at 0% interest rate is to hold the bond, perhaps for short term shorting.
|
||||
|
||||
- The Fed has on March 16 increased the maximum amount of cash they will borrow daily from a counterparty from 30 billion to 80 billion per counterparty. Reverse repo transactions have increased daily since.
|
||||
|
||||
- It's not financial institutes borrowing cash because they got margin called. It's the contrary: it's them depositing cash to profit from babysitting holding US Treasury bonds.
|
||||
|
||||
- ~~which they perhaps use for nefarious purposes~~ ~~this is an understatement~~
|
||||
|
||||
- Please see Update.
|
||||
|
||||
Good day apes! This is my first attempt at a DD if you can call it that. I'm actually just formulating an in-depth reply to other daily trending posts:
|
||||
|
||||
- 20k upvotes: <https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nb9pon/european_financial_news_is_reporting_major_margin/>
|
||||
|
||||
- 11k upvotes: <https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nbg01m/regarding_recent_rumors_about_fed_bailing_out_hfs/>
|
||||
|
||||
- 8.3k upvotes: <https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nbbrg6/margin_called_front_page_moneyit/>
|
||||
|
||||
- 5.3k upvotes: <https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nbbg13/reverse_repo_loan_amounts_by_day_since_january/>
|
||||
|
||||
If I'm wrong then shame be on me and I will delete this post or leave it up for posterity, whatever the people deem best. If I'm right, a lot of people are getting excited about some news site that is wrongly interpreting what it means when the Fed conducts reverse repo operations: it's the opposite. So here goes.
|
||||
|
||||
WHERE ARE THE NUMBERS FROM?
|
||||
|
||||
So first off, what is this $400 billion figure coming from? Again look at the shared news article: <https://www.money.it/Fed-repo-miliardi-Wall-Street>
|
||||
|
||||
400 billion is the lazy sum of 209 billion and 181 billion (context: Italians call a billion a milliardi). Those numbers can be found on the NY Fed site here: <https://apps.newyorkfed.org/markets/autorates/tomo-results-display?SHOWMORE=TRUE&startDate=01/01/2000&enddate=01/01/2000>
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/phgs140fdyy61.png?width=1119&format=png&auto=webp&s=50cd1533a4e1000d7238f940ce59ad364e49fcdf)
|
||||
|
||||
The numbers are from reverse repos
|
||||
|
||||
Take note that the page contains daily summaries of repos and reverse repos. Nothing is happening in terms of repos (.000 abound), the numbers are about reverse repos.
|
||||
|
||||
WHAT ARE REVERSE REPOS?
|
||||
|
||||
I've only learned today what a repo or reverse repo is, but it's enough to conclude that the news site has it wrong. There seems to be some confusion today because of one definition on Investopedia, and another definition on the Fed site. But we are talking about numbers posted on the Fed site, so lets look at their FAQ.
|
||||
|
||||
Here is what the NY Fed's FAQ says:
|
||||
|
||||
"A reverse repurchase agreement conducted by the Desk, also called a "reverse repo" or "RRP," is a transaction in which the Desk sells a security to an eligible counterparty with an agreement to repurchase that same security at a specified price at a specific time in the future."
|
||||
|
||||
Source: <https://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/rrp_faq.html>
|
||||
|
||||
"The Desk" refers to the Open Market Trading Desk which represents the Fed. So in a reverse repo (RRP) the Fed sells a security to gain cash, but has an agreement to buy the security back. That's where we can already conclude the 400 billion is not being lent to Wall Street at all, it's being borrowed from Wall Street. It has nothing to do with margin calls.
|
||||
|
||||
If I'm wrong, correct me please, but here is a few more sources to back up this interpretation.
|
||||
|
||||
- <https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/overnight-reverse-repurchase-agreements.htm>"When the Federal Reserve conducts an overnight RRP, it sells a security to an eligible counterparty and simultaneously agrees to buy the security back the next day."
|
||||
|
||||
- <https://www.learningmarkets.com/the-federal-reserves-open-market-operations/>"When the Fed wants to extract money from the system, it sells Treasury securities to its primary dealers in a reverse repo."
|
||||
|
||||
Moreover, the reverse repos involving the reported numbers are overnight reverse repos, meaning the transaction is inverted the next day. Therefore it's also incorrect to just sum up the numbers: the 209 billion of one day and the 181 billion of the day before probably have a lot of overlap. So scrap that 400 billion number altogether.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/ygb2nqbrbyy61.png?width=599&format=png&auto=webp&s=26645b6faf328e475ad1436b39d351ab745e9d82)
|
||||
|
||||
Numbers are from same-day settlement reverse repos, i.e. 'overnight'
|
||||
|
||||
Until this part is just setting the record straight. I do have an alternative theory to propose.
|
||||
|
||||
Reminder: My personal stance has changed, feel free to entertain the theory but please make sure to also read the update at the end of the post and the referenced counter perspectives.
|
||||
|
||||
Remainder of the post is the original theory.
|
||||
|
||||
SO WHAT IS ACTUALLY GOING ON WITH THESE INCREASING NUMBERS?
|
||||
|
||||
If you look at the data again on the NY Fed site, numbers have been increasing steadily every week day: 154, 161, 175, 181, 209 billion. That can be seen in this graph, which was made by [u/xpurplexamyx](https://www.reddit.com/u/xpurplexamyx/) today:
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/wr801288eyy61.png?width=960&format=png&auto=webp&s=b4821e15abc01e14e0f4ea6401fe1cdbfe03daaa)
|
||||
|
||||
All credit to u/xpurplexamyx and her post at https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nbbg13/reverse_repo_loan_amounts_by_day_since_january/
|
||||
|
||||
If you look at the graph, you can see the numbers start increasing rapidly after March 17. Well something very relevant happened on that day. Before March 17, any reverse repo (RRP) counter party could deposit up to 30 billion per day at the Fed. On March 17, this changed to 80 billion.
|
||||
|
||||
Source: <https://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/opolicy/operating_policy_210317> and <https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20210428a1.htm>
|
||||
|
||||
Now assuming there is incentive for counterparties (that would be banks) to participate in the Fed's RRP program, it is to be expected that numbers would rise from that point on. Why did it increase gradually instead of immediately from March 17 onward? What is that spike on March 31? I don't know, hope someone can fill us in. Why did the Fed decide to raise the limit to 80 billion? I don't know either but it has something to do with that bRRR-man. I hope someone with knowledge of monetary policy can jump in here.
|
||||
|
||||
Lets talk about incentives. Normally the incentive for counterparties to take part in the reverse repo program, i.e. deposit cash at the Fed is because they make interest on that deposit. Otherwise, why wouldn't they rather use that money to make money? So normally, the Fed offers some interest, but not more than other banks. The interest rate for reverse repos is tweaked by the Fed to act as a lower limit to what interest banks charge each other, the latter is called the federal funds rate.
|
||||
|
||||
My crude attempt at summarizing this: the interest rate that the Fed pays in reverse repos can be decreased by the Fed to incentivize banks to borrow from each other, and increased to incentivize borrowing from the Fed. People that actually know economics can come shit over me now.
|
||||
|
||||
What is interesting to me and a bit surprising is that the current interest rate for overnight reverse repos, the ON RRP rate, is currently 0.00%. Source: <https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20210428a1.htm>.
|
||||
|
||||
Again, the interest rate that one would get for using the Fed as a daycare for their cash, is currently 0.00%. Yet participation in the ON RRP program is increasing daily, both in terms of money exchanged and number of counterparties participating as evidenced by those 181 billion, 209 billion and today 235 billion. The 400 billion number from the Italian site was summed up where summing isn't valid, but at this rate we will reach it soon on a single day!
|
||||
|
||||
What's the incentive? Well perhaps you want the collateral that the Fed offers, which in the case of the reverse repos we are looking at are exclusively Treasury Bonds. The Fed gets to babysit your cash, you get to babysit some US treasury bonds.
|
||||
|
||||
The incentive may be that when you park your cash at the Fed and get to hold on to US Treasury bonds, you can do stuff with those bonds for a day since you do own them until the Fed purchases them back the next day. Here are some things I can think of to do with these freely borrowed bonds:
|
||||
|
||||
- Lend them to short sellers for a borrow fee
|
||||
|
||||
- Use them yourself to short
|
||||
|
||||
- If anyone can come up with other reasons to deposit funds somewhere for 0% interest, receiving treasury bonds as collateral, please fill me in. I would like to know the least nefarious reason for someone to make use of this reverse repo program.
|
||||
|
||||
I mean, look at what's been trending downwards:
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/e2ply48ihyy61.png?width=853&format=png&auto=webp&s=85a103ff44d76ff96bec4f4498d2bf3878cd5bad)
|
||||
|
||||
Price of treasury bonds has been trending down
|
||||
|
||||
For more juicy cooking recipes with treasury bonds, please refer to the Everything Short by [u/atobitt](https://www.reddit.com/u/atobitt/). I'm not saying the Everything Short and this here are the same argument, actually I need to reread it knowing everything I learned today. What I am saying is that treasury bonds are shiny.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/vb55e9krpyy61.jpg?width=650&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=028788f1a02e5299329a2d00b65f7ea253a5d148)
|
||||
|
||||
And I don't even know what they look like!
|
||||
|
||||
Since the value of treasury bonds is trending downward and these financial institutes can borrow treasury bonds from the Fed free of charge via reverse repos, that might explain why so many parties are participating in this reverse repo program and why daily cash deposited at the Fed is ever increasing. Although this mechanism was made by the Fed as a way to withhold money from the market, in effect they are lending out treasury bonds for free.
|
||||
|
||||
They have quite the conundrum: the ON RPP rate is zero, which should be no incentive for banks to deposit cash at the Fed daily, yet they do. That means that babysitting treasury bonds is profitable and the ON RPP rate should be negative, which means institutes pays the Fed a fee to borrow those treasury bonds. But the ON RPP rate is also meant to be a lower limit for federal funds rate, which they don't want going negative.
|
||||
|
||||
If I understand all of this correctly, the ability to short treasury bonds is like an exploit that makes the reverse repo program ripe for exploitation. Financial institutes can borrow treasury bonds for free, which can be turned into profit with a little creativity, and the Fed can't charge for it because that could unintentionally cause negative interest rates across the economy.
|
||||
|
||||
Please let me know your thoughts. I do not have much confidence in this theory, but it's the only one I could come up with to explain things that otherwise don't make sense to me.
|
||||
|
||||
Why did the Fed increase the daily limit for any RRP counterparty from 30 billion to 80 billion?
|
||||
|
||||
Can the reverse repo program be used as an exploit to borrow treasury bonds for free and then short the bonds using them? If not, why are banks participating in the reverse repo program at 0.00% interest?
|
||||
|
||||
Why is the ON RPP rate 0.00%, what's the objective? Does it make sense for the Fed to set it at 0.00% as opposed to negative?
|
||||
|
||||
Update: Mostly harmless
|
||||
|
||||
I asked for opposing perspectives to my tinfoil hat theory and received several. Please see [u/usefully_useless](https://www.reddit.com/u/usefully_useless/)'s [reply](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nbt1sp/counter_dd_ny_fed_400_bln_reverse_repos_is_not/gy7zdhr/?utm_source=reddit&utm_medium=web2x&context=3) for a counter perspective that this is just the money market working as intended. The fact that we're seeing record numbers in reverse repos day by day can be explained by record numbers of excess cash. Incentive to store at the cash at the Fed at 0% is due to the obligation of money market funds to lend (forbidden to hoard). Lending to other financial institutions is currently not as competitive as usual (overnight interest only 0.01% on average), so there are clear reasons to park excess cash at the Fed (low overhead, zero insolvency risk).
|
||||
|
||||
On the other side of the equation, [u/jsmar18](https://www.reddit.com/u/jsmar18/) stressed the role of the Fed in their [reply](https://www.reddit.com/user/jsmar18/) and I would like to highlight that although I posed the question 'why would the Fed do x', I meant it as a general inquiry and not an accusation of suspicion. However read his summary of RRP history and Fed goals. Fed actions sus? No, in line with their monetary policy and their hyperfocus on controlling inflation.
|
||||
|
||||
[u/HotBoyFF](https://www.reddit.com/u/HotBoyFF/) also remarked with his experience that it's likely not daily short selling, but it could be that the financial institutions desperately need treasury securities for something other, such as reporting reasons. [u/jsmar18](https://www.reddit.com/u/jsmar18/) in their reply also linked some good information on that. Treasuries are certainly used for 'window-dressing' (cooking books legally). I found this study on that subject if anyone is interested: <https://www.aeaweb.org/conference/2018/preliminary/paper/KdB9i9QE>
|
||||
|
||||
A popular question was: does this align with [u/atobitt](https://www.reddit.com/u/atobitt/)'s [Everything Short](https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/comments/mgucv2/the_everything_short/)? Now that I believe that it's mostly money market funds using the reverse repo program, who cannot directly in a legal way tunnel assets to hedge funds, I think it is more likely that hedge funds would just naked short over exploiting the reverse repo program. The original theory aligned with Everything Short, my updated stance just says: The NY Fed's reverse repo program is probably not an efficient way for hedgies to implement the Everything Short. Here is a little snack that does support the Everything Short, which is [JPow's Q&A from April 27-28](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcpresconf20210428.htm) time 47:00. "As you know at the beginning of this recent crisis, there was such a demand for selling treasuries, including by foreign central banks, that really the dealers could not handle the volume." Insane demand so the dealers couldn't handle it, could that have included naked short selling? Likely.
|
||||
|
||||
But while we should keep an eye on Citadel and any parties trying to short *attack* the US treasuries, I don't believe Citadel is overleveraged in naked shorting US treasuries because retail and whales catching a falling GME was the big surprise to them. In US treasuries, the 52wk high-low (for example TLT: 177 - 136) is much tighter than GME (483 - 3.77) and the market for treasuries is much more resilient. So US treasuries no squeeze potential in case you were considering it (and I know some of you apes did). The ball is still GME.
|
421
DD/2021-05-20-Go-No-Go-Launch-Checklist-Update.md
Normal file
421
DD/2021-05-20-Go-No-Go-Launch-Checklist-Update.md
Normal file
@ -0,0 +1,421 @@
|
||||
UPDATE -- Go / No-Go For Launch - The checklist keeping GME on the launchpad.
|
||||
=============================================================================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/nothingbuttherainsir](https://www.reddit.com/user/nothingbuttherainsir/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nhh0f1/update_go_nogo_for_launch_the_checklist_keeping/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
[Possible DD 👨🔬](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22Possible%20DD%20%F0%9F%91%A8%E2%80%8D%F0%9F%94%AC%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||
*TL;DR:*\
|
||||
DTCC / OCC / ICC etc. & Wall St want key things in place before GME unwinds, and we're now looking at a list that's been mostly checked off. This rocket is just about cleared for launch.
|
||||
|
||||
*Last updated: 2021-06-23* | [Original post from 2021-04-22](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/mvq6rs/go_nogo_for_launch_the_dtcc_checklist_keeping_gme/)
|
||||
|
||||
Go / No-Go For Launch
|
||||
|
||||
Opinion - Status: Hold ❌\
|
||||
*We're on a scheduled hold. Preliminary system checks are good enough to launch, and now we are being held for atmospheric conditions to be just right.*
|
||||
|
||||
*GME ignition needs to appear from the outside to be organic, or it will be fairly obvious to the public that The System is built on lies, and run by liars, completely unfair, and this stock was just being flat out controlled for months. Even if Wall St survives financially by implementing all these rules, if they lose the public trust then it is literally "game stopped." They need plausible cover to launch now, the rest is in place.*
|
||||
|
||||
1 - Rules of Engagement ✅
|
||||
|
||||
2 - Funding ✅
|
||||
|
||||
3 - Cover Story for Timing ❌
|
||||
|
||||
4 - Avoiding Perception of Responsibility ✅
|
||||
|
||||
--- *End TL;DR* ---
|
||||
|
||||
Busy few weeks, eh Apes? Figured I'd give this a brush up and post it again since it was a month ago I posted the original. So here's the refreshed, reviewed, reassessed, reformatted, and return of the Go / No-Go Checklist. Freshness stamp at the top, changes by date at the bottom. Please comment with any additions and corrections as always.
|
||||
|
||||
Official notice that this is not financial advice, etc etc. I have no idea if any of this is indeed why these things are happening, or if they are even what I think they are. I bought a handful of shares before DFV's Congressional hearing because something seemed fucky, and that was my first stock purchase EVER. If you make financial decisions off of this speculation, you probably do eat crayons like me. I am literally just some Ape on the internet mashing buttons and you're gonna have to explain to your wife's boyfriend why you took this as advice and then spent your whole allowance already this week.
|
||||
|
||||
So this [post](https://reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/mu9xed/why_were_still_trading_sideways_and_why_we_havent/) from [u/c-digs](https://www.reddit.com/u/c-digs/) is about as close as anyone has come to my personal theory that there is a literal checklist somewhere that is getting marked off before this is allowed to unravel. The DTCC and Wall St (and probably the SEC) definitely do not want this spring to unwind before they are ready, and certainly not in a way in which they don't feel they are in control. These players are Big Corporate dicks with Big Corporate mindsets, and its my bet that they don't do anything without a plan that at least addresses all eventualities.
|
||||
|
||||
However, as it is now probably alarmingly clear to them this isn't just gonna go away on its own (cue Apes waving from the windows of the rocket sitting on the launchpad), the DTCC and pals are now scrambling to get the last things in place before somebody trips over the cord to the shredder at 3am and lands on the launch button.
|
||||
|
||||
I think the list goes something like this, but am intending this to be a crowdsourced document because there is no way I can keep this all straight on my own, and the GME Investor community has done so so much great DD already. There is definitely more to add in terms of DTCC / OCC / NSCC / SEC rules, and please comment with additional items & sources and I'll try to keep up with editing them into the list. Compiling it here can possibly help determine just how close GME probably is to liftoff. It feels like we aren't that far from it now.
|
||||
|
||||
1 - Rules of Engagement
|
||||
|
||||
Opinon - Status: Go for Launch ✅\
|
||||
*The System would benefit most if new rules about payments in a member default situation are in effect prior to launch, and as far as we know at this point, all rules to cover that scenario that were filed are now in place. They can use remaining days to shore up a few more monetary rules, but there aren't any disaster-level rules still pending out there. My opinion is at 100% Go for rules being in place.*
|
||||
|
||||
Let's cover some basics before getting into each specific rule.
|
||||
|
||||
Whose rules cover what:
|
||||
|
||||
DTCC stands for Depoisitory Trust and Clearing Corporation which is made up of 3 self-regulating bodies:
|
||||
|
||||
- [DTC](https://www.dtcc.com/about/businesses-and-subsidiaries/dtc) - The Depository Trust Company
|
||||
|
||||
- [NSCC](https://www.dtcc.com/about/businesses-and-subsidiaries/nscc) - National Securities Clearing Corporation
|
||||
|
||||
- [FICC](https://www.dtcc.com/about/businesses-and-subsidiaries/ficc) - Fixed Income Clearing Corporation
|
||||
|
||||
and handles:
|
||||
|
||||
- Physical Stock Certificates and ownership records, big institutional trades (DTC)
|
||||
|
||||
- Securities trades, clearing, and settlement for nearly all transactions involving US based marketplaces (NSCC)
|
||||
|
||||
- Government Securities and Mortgage-Backed Securities (FICC)
|
||||
|
||||
[OCC](https://www.theocc.com/) - Options Clearing Coroporation handles:\
|
||||
Options (shocker, I know)
|
||||
|
||||
[ICC](https://www.theice.com/clear-credit) - Intercontinental Exchance (ICE) Clear Credit handles:\
|
||||
Credit Default Swaps, or CDS for short.
|
||||
|
||||
Naming Scheme (yes the whole thing is important)\
|
||||
example: SR-DTC-2021-005
|
||||
|
||||
- SR - Type of document filed, SR = Self Regulation
|
||||
|
||||
- DTC - Name of self regulated entity filing it
|
||||
|
||||
- 2021 - Year regulation was filed
|
||||
|
||||
- 005 - Sequence filed in (5th, so far)
|
||||
|
||||
✅ = in effect now\
|
||||
❌ = pending review / revision
|
||||
|
||||
Rules To Protect The System
|
||||
|
||||
Stocks/Securities
|
||||
|
||||
- SR-DTC-2021-003: Obligation to Reconcile Activity on a Regular Basis ✅\
|
||||
*The "You're gonna report your risk daily now, you little shits" Rule.*\
|
||||
Filed 2021-03-09\
|
||||
Effective 2021-03-16\
|
||||
[src](https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/comments/m793h7/new_dtcc_rule_just_passed_in_effect_immediatly/)
|
||||
|
||||
- SR-DTC-2021-004: Amend the Recovery & Wind-down Plan ✅\
|
||||
*The "We'll liquidate your asse(t)s if you default, then make your pals chip in, before we pay a dime ourselves" Rule.*\
|
||||
Also stipulates what the DTCC is willing to cover when reconciling, as in only shares on the books, and why you (yes you Ape) should have a cash account and not a margin account.\
|
||||
Filed 2021-03-29\
|
||||
Effective Immediately\
|
||||
[src](https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/comments/mgs05i/analysis_of_srdtc2021004_dtcc_changing_the_game/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf)
|
||||
|
||||
- SR-DTC-2021-005: Modify the DTC Settlement Service Guide and the Form of DTC Pledgee's Agreement ✅\
|
||||
*The "We're tagging the shares you lend out so you can't do it more than once" Rule.*\
|
||||
While this won't help prevent the current GME squeeze scenario, and would likely ignite the engines on its own, this will prevent a *GME-like* scenario from happening again in the future. [u/Leenixus](https://www.reddit.com/user/Leenixus/) has posted lots of info around DTC-2021-005 if you'd like to follow the saga.\
|
||||
Filed 2021-04-01 [archived original](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/o2nx3z/i_have_the_original_sec_srdtc2021005_before_it/)\
|
||||
Removed for further review src-1\
|
||||
Refiled 2021-06-15 src-2\
|
||||
Effective Immediately upon re-filing\
|
||||
[src-1](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/mpmcyz/good_news_update_on_dtc2021005_according_to_john/), [src-2](https://www.dtcc.com/-/media/Files/Downloads/legal/rule-filings/2021/DTC/SR-DTC-2021-005.pdf)
|
||||
|
||||
- SR-DTC-2021-006: Remove the Security Holder Tracking Service ✅\
|
||||
*The "We're dropping the old way of tracking shares, cause it didn't work well, and DTC-2021-005 will do it better" Rule.*\
|
||||
It was speculated in another post that the old system of tracking needed to be removed so there was no conflict in implementing DTC-2021-005 (I can't find that post here on reddit anymore, src needed!). It's likely that this could pave the way for 005 to be implemented. As if 2021-05-20 I am more inclined to think that it was removed to keep anyone from implementing share tracking prior to 005 being implemented. Filed 2021-04-22\
|
||||
Effective Immediately\
|
||||
[src](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/mwhyhw/sec_files_srdtc2021006_removing_the_old_and/) <- also my post
|
||||
|
||||
- SR-DTC-2021-007: Update the DTC Corporate Actions Distributions Service Guide ✅\
|
||||
*The "Stop bickering back and forth over the manual adjustments to your peer to peer trade records via the dumb APO method, and just use the GD computer validated Claim Connect system, please" Rule.*\
|
||||
Way to make a super vague title DTC... This is mostly about borrowed shares and updating who pays how much when circumstances - like rates - change. The old system (APO) needed both parties to just agree on the adjustments and one side could only submit an adjustment at a time, so it was rarely agreed upon in one pass and the bad guys could likely stall with many back and forths. To me this reads as a please use this better thing now, because APO will go away on July 9th 2021 so you'll have to use Claim Connect by then anyways. Since the lender is likely incentivized to use the new system, it may get adopted in higher numbers sooner.\
|
||||
Filed 2021-04-30\
|
||||
Effective Immediately\
|
||||
Mandatory 2021-07-09\
|
||||
[src](https://www.sec.gov/rules/sro/dtc.htm#SR-DTC-2021-007), [Explainer post](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/n28jes/new_dtc_regulation_posted_srdtc2021007/)
|
||||
|
||||
- SR-DTC-2021-009: Provide Enhanced Clarity for Deadlines and Processing Times ✅\
|
||||
*The "Don't assume we'll be keeping up with our own deadlines just because we have been in the past. We'll do what we want when we want. Also dont cry to us if our choices about deadlines, or someone else's rules about deadlines, kick you in the wallet. We're not chipping in for that." Rule.*\
|
||||
This is basically a re-statement of an ongoing policy by the DTC that their precedent around deadlines/timetables that they themselves have control over should not be misunderstood as a guarantee of them adhering to those same deadlines/timetables in the future. This does not effect deadlines imposed by external regulations though. Further, the DTC stipulates that they are not liable for damages (monetary losses) that are incurred by members from the DTC's choices to act or not act in the same timeframes as they had before, or damages from the actions of anybody else's rules, (SEC, OCC, NSCC, etc).\
|
||||
Filed 2021-06-08\
|
||||
Effective Immediately\
|
||||
[src](https://www.sec.gov/rules/sro/dtc/2021/34-92198.pdf), [Explainer post](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/o1ds30/new_dtc_filing_srdtc2021009_notice_of_filing_and/), [more info](https://reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/o63ev5/dtc2021009_implemented_tomorrow_saying_the_dtc/)
|
||||
|
||||
- SR-NSCC-2021-002: Amend the Supplemental Liquidity Deposit Requirements ✅\
|
||||
*The "We'll margin call your ass if your new daily reports say you're overextended and make us feel scared" Rule.*\
|
||||
Works in conjunction with DTC-2021-003. This rule now appears to be clear to be acted on by the SEC. NSCC filed a Partial Ammendment to this on June 17th for clarification.\
|
||||
Possible insight on why this may have been strategically delayed, via [/u/yosaso](https://www.reddit.com/u/yosaso/) src-4\
|
||||
NSCC-2021-801 Gave Advance Notice of this, and as of 2021-05-04 is cleared to be included with NSC-2021-002. src-2\
|
||||
Filed 2021-03-05\
|
||||
Comment Period Extended to 05-31 / Expected action on or before 2021-06-21 src-3\
|
||||
Approved 2021-06-21 with partial ammendment src-4\
|
||||
Effective 2021-06-23 src-5 [src](https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/comments/mc0zfn/too_ape_didnt_read_summary_of_srnscc2021801/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf), [src-2](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/n51u5d/sec_has_no_objections_to_nscc801/), [src-3](https://www.sec.gov/rules/sro/nscc/2021/34-91788.pdf), [src-4](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/n67h63/the_reason_why_may_4th_was_important/), [src-4](https://www.sec.gov/rules/sro/nscc/2021/34-92213.pdf), [src-5](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/o4z0jc/implementation_of_the_proposed_changes_to_the/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3)
|
||||
|
||||
- SR-NSCC-2021-004: Amend the Recovery & Wind-down Plan ✅\
|
||||
*The "Just so we're clear about stocks specifically, we're really serious about us not paying for your fuckups unless we have to rule" Rule.*\
|
||||
Works in conjunction with DTC-2021-004, but this is specific to securities and was filed first. src-1 This ALSO has language in it about clarifying the mass transfer of customer accounts from a failing member to a stable member. src-2\
|
||||
Filed 2021-03-05\
|
||||
Effective 2021-03-18\
|
||||
[src-1](https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/comments/mc0zfn/too_ape_didnt_read_summary_of_srnscc2021801/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf), [src-2](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/mvybgf/sec_is_expecting_the_need_for_a_mass_emergency/)
|
||||
|
||||
- NSCC-2021-005: Increase the NSCC's Minimum Required Fund Deposit *pending* ❌\
|
||||
*The "We're gonna up your minimum deposit with us from an hysterically low $10K each, to an almost certainly still not enough $250k each" Rule.*\
|
||||
DTCC has submitted this to SEC, but SEC has not approved / published yet, so details may change. src-1\
|
||||
Filed 2021-04-26\
|
||||
Published: 2021-05-10\
|
||||
Approved: Pending, expected action on or before 2021-06-24 (45 days after publication)\
|
||||
Effective: Approval + 10 days max\
|
||||
[src-1](https://www.dtcc.com/legal), [Explainer post](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/mz9gl6/nscc2021005_has_been_signed_today_implementation/)
|
||||
|
||||
Options
|
||||
|
||||
- SR-OCC-2021-003: Increase Persistent Minimum Skin-In-The-Game / Waterfall ✅\
|
||||
*The "You Market Makers are gonna give us more money now in case you fuck up with options later and owe someone more than you have" Rule.*\
|
||||
This is the rule associated with the SR-OCC-2021-801 advanced notice, and SIG filed an opposition during the review period delaying the implementation. src-1 You can read that whiney rant here via this [comment](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nhh0f1/update_go_nogo_for_launch_the_checklist_keeping/gznui8r?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3)\
|
||||
OCC-2021-003 is now approved and both should be in effect no later than Tuesday 2021-06-01 10am Eastern (if SEC approval notice counts as the official written notice to OCC members). src-2\
|
||||
Filed 2021-02-10\
|
||||
Approved 2021-05-27\
|
||||
Effective on or before 2021-06-01 10am EST\
|
||||
[src-1](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/mm8pnz/update_from_sec_on_srocc2021801_aka_srocc2021203/), [src-2](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nmjbov/srocc2021003_approved_that_one_was_needed_for/gzqwqzc?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3)
|
||||
|
||||
Credit Default Swaps
|
||||
|
||||
- SR-ICC-2021-005: Amend the ICC Recovery & Wind-down Plan ✅\
|
||||
*The "Guys, DTC had a pretty good idea, lets also liquidate members first before touching our own cash." Rule.*\
|
||||
Fairly straightforward with this nugget as described by [u/Criand](https://www.reddit.com/u/Criand/):\
|
||||
"Something really cool is they'll not only wipe out members who default on a certain security, they'll wipe out similar positions in that same security of all their other members IF it's high risk/stress to the market."\
|
||||
Filed 2021-03-23\
|
||||
Approved 2021-05-10\
|
||||
Effective Immediately\
|
||||
[src](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nfl69o/new_icc_rules_summary_they_are_preparing_for/)
|
||||
|
||||
- SR-ICC-2021-007: Update the ICC's Treasury Operations Policies and Procedures ✅\
|
||||
*The "Your capital balance sheet is looking a little shaggy there, we think you need a Collateral Haircut" Rule.*\
|
||||
Tightens up what can and cant be considered as collateral, trimming off the stuff that is not deemed worthy, and reducing overall capital, which means you can handle less total risk and/or volatile CDS contracts.\
|
||||
Filed 2021-03-29\
|
||||
Approved 2021-05-13\
|
||||
Effective Immediately\
|
||||
[src](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nfl69o/new_icc_rules_summary_they_are_preparing_for/)
|
||||
|
||||
- SR-ICC-2021-008: Update the ICC Risk Management Model Description ✅\
|
||||
*The "We're gonna start using our best guesses on if the collateral for the loans these psuedo-insurance contracts are based on might go crazy in the near future, 'cause shit is getting weird out there" Rule.*\
|
||||
This is about [Credit Default Swaps](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/creditdefaultswap.asp), which are a bit complex. Essentially this rule appears it primarily will help to reduce the chances of say, BofA failing because they agreed to get paid to take on some of the risk of a loan made by say JP Morgan, and then BofA got fucked over just because JP Morgain made the loan using a volatile stock as collateral and then that stock went bananas... a stock which everyone probably knew was volatile but somehow wasn't a big factor in making the agreement before this rule. The rule also limits the ICC maximum total losses/payout, and ups initial margin requirements.\
|
||||
Filed 2021-03-31\
|
||||
Approved 2021-05-18\
|
||||
Effective Immediately\
|
||||
[src](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nfl69o/new_icc_rules_summary_they_are_preparing_for/)
|
||||
|
||||
- SR-ICC-2021-009: Update the ICC Risk Parameter Setting and Review Policy ✅\
|
||||
*The "We're basing risk on day to day averages now instead of month to month averages" Rule.*\
|
||||
When something strays too far outside of the acceptable baseline, it gets flagged. Now that baseline is automatically calculated day to day, instead of month to month, and manualy reviewed the old way at least monthly. It will result in faster response time to fast moving changes and real risks (safer), but also less shock from too few updates (smoother). All that so they can keep margin levels appropriate. Also cleans up some language to be more generic and descriptive like "Extreme Price Change Scenarios."\
|
||||
Filed 2021-04-02\
|
||||
Approved 2021-05-20\
|
||||
Effective Immediately\
|
||||
[src](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nhdw0f/rick_management_updates_just_went_from_monthly_to/)
|
||||
|
||||
- SR-ICC-2021-014: Update the ICC's Fee Schedules ✅\
|
||||
*The "Huuuuuuuge discounts on swaps! Get 'em while they last!" Rule.*\
|
||||
This cuts fees on CDS contracts about 25%, which sounds like they want to incentivize risk sharing even more. Program is for the 2nd half of 2021, and discounts start June 1st.\
|
||||
Filed 2021-05-07\
|
||||
Approved 2021-05-18\
|
||||
Effective Immediately\
|
||||
[src](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nfl69o/new_icc_rules_summary_they_are_preparing_for/)
|
||||
|
||||
Rules to protect the value of the market in general as best as possible
|
||||
|
||||
- SR-OCC-2021-004: Revisions to OCC's Auction Participation Requirements ✅\
|
||||
*The "Everyone can come to the feeding frenzy party when we liquidate one of you idiots" Rule.*\
|
||||
Allows more firms that were traditionally excluded from an auction of this type to now join in, probably making the market wide bleeding end sooner, and retain more value overall.\
|
||||
Filed 2021-03-19\
|
||||
Effective 2021-05-19\
|
||||
[src](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/mnpzu5/srocc2021004_why_this_proposed_rule_change_is/)
|
||||
|
||||
Non-regulation / Other Announcments
|
||||
|
||||
- Exchange Act Rule 15c3-3 Compliance Letter: Staff Statement on Fully Paid Lending ✅\
|
||||
*The "We're making you keep full collateral on hand for your shit, you've got six months to get it together" letter.*\
|
||||
Letter sent 2020-10-22\
|
||||
Effective 2021-04-22\
|
||||
[src](https://www.sec.gov/news/public-statement/staff-fully-paid-lending?utm_medium=email&utm_source=govdelivery)
|
||||
|
||||
- GOV-1085-21: DTCC / FICC White Paper Announcing WABR added as a Sponsored Member ✅\
|
||||
WABR Cayman Limited is a firm specializing in helping Institutional Sales Traders in times of "thin markets". [u/stellarEVH](https://www.reddit.com/u/stellarEVH/) explains:\
|
||||
*"When a company needs to quickly pay off their debts as in the case of a margin call, it can be challenging for them to gather all the money from their various investments. There are firms in place that are specialized in liquidating their portfolio in a manner to minimize market impact while they pay off their debt."*\
|
||||
Announced 2021-04-23\
|
||||
Effective 2021-04-29\
|
||||
[src](https://www.dtcc.com/-/media/Files/pdf/2021/4/23/GOV1085-21PDF.PDF), via [this post & comments](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/my1hio/friday_the_dtcc_approved_wabra_morgan_stanley/), linked from [It's Just a Bug, Bro Part 6 - Bug Spray Edition](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/myl37p/its_just_a_bug_bro_part_6_bug_spray_edition/)\
|
||||
[Additional info on who WABR is](https://reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/mz4oza/the_rabbit_hole_of_wabr_cayman_company_limited/) 👀 *Spidey senses are tingling*\
|
||||
*I love this community*
|
||||
|
||||
- MBS978-21: FICC Notice on MBSD Intraday Mark-to-Market Charge - Timing of Intraday Collection ✅\
|
||||
*We've been lenient for the past year cause shit was wack, but we're going back on that regular hourly assesment for margins.* "Starting on May 3, 2021, the fixed time of 1:00PM will be eliminated and the MBSD Intraday Mark-to-Market Charge will return to an hourly assessment." This combined with other things will tighten the screws.\
|
||||
[/u/stellarEVH](https://www.reddit.com/u/stellarEVH/) bringing that good good again: *"For example, it'll be much harder to short GameStop and/or trade in dark pools when you're expected to cover your margin every hour. For the last year, they've only needed to prove they were covered at 1pm."*\
|
||||
Notice Date 2021-04-21\
|
||||
Effective 2021-05-03\
|
||||
[src post](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/n3m0qu/the_mandatory_dtcc_common_stock_reallocation_for/), [explainer comment](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/n3m0qu/the_mandatory_dtcc_common_stock_reallocation_for/gwr8n2a?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3)
|
||||
|
||||
- OCC Notice 48718: TEMPORARY INCREASE TO CLEARING FUND SIZE ✅\
|
||||
*Yeah if you could give us some more of your money for a bit, that would be great.*\
|
||||
Yeah they used all caps, and gave 2 days notice before they would just go into members bank accounts to get that money. Must've needed it bad for the 19th, because it normally is just increased monthly on the 1st. Total increase was $588,378,155.\
|
||||
Notice Date 2021-05-17\
|
||||
Deposit by Date 2021-05-19 [by 9am](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nfz9xa/huge_crypto_dump_currently_things_are_hotting_up/).\
|
||||
[src](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nftyg4/occ_has_issued_a_statement_to_all_clearing/)
|
||||
|
||||
*(please help me fill in other important rules via comments)*
|
||||
|
||||
2 - Funding
|
||||
|
||||
Opinion - Status: Go for Launch ✅
|
||||
|
||||
To pay out for shares of GME
|
||||
|
||||
- [SHF Pulling money from crypt0](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bitcoin-doge-ethereum-ripple-price-monday-19-april-crypto-latest-081427050.html)
|
||||
|
||||
- SHF Pump and Dump on other stocks
|
||||
|
||||
- SHF Liquidate other Assets Under Management (market-wide dive on 2021-04-22?) [Citadel Sell-off?](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/n0fwx2/kenny_might_be_in_a_bit_of_a_pickle_right_now/)
|
||||
|
||||
- Wind Down and Recovery Strategies (SR-DTC-2021-004, SR-ICC-2021-005)
|
||||
|
||||
- *(other suggestions w/ sources wanted)*
|
||||
|
||||
Secure cash to buy up liquidated assets to prevent total market collapse
|
||||
|
||||
- [Big Banks do a Bond Sales](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/mu8a5m/6_out_of_the_7_top_listed_us_banks_have_made/), [Citigroup: "Me Too!"](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/mzvcli/citigroup_borrowing_55_billion_in_latest_bank/)
|
||||
|
||||
- Need plausible reasons for making those sales such as earnings report, or LIBOR to SOFR switch, or *insert wildcard like $50 Bil Football League*, etc ...
|
||||
|
||||
- Banks Re-Structuring / Netting [src](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/mur8bz/srdtc2021004_the_dtcc_and_jp_morgan_theyre/)
|
||||
|
||||
- [Wells Fargo to liquidate two of its trusts](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nh5ed7/wells_fargo_to_liquidate_two_of_its_trusts/)
|
||||
|
||||
- Rule SR-OCC-2021-004 allowing more players at the auction of the defaulting member's assets.
|
||||
|
||||
3 - Cover for Timing of Launch
|
||||
|
||||
Opinion - Status: No-Go for Launch ❌\
|
||||
*This will likely be the very last one, and we'll only know what they will use as an excuse once it's started. I think all the other pieces would need to be in place* (Narrator: They are.) *for them to feel most confident to light the fuse. This will be more oportunistic in nature, I think.*
|
||||
|
||||
I'm splitting this into 2 objectives: why GME is going up, and why the market in general is tanking.
|
||||
|
||||
GME Go BRRRRRRRRRRRR! Cover
|
||||
|
||||
Ideally a plausible Corporate or Market Event that the stock price "should" respond to in order to initiate upward price movement without the timing looking SUS AF and destabilizing the broader market due to fear of systemic problems and/or loss of public trust. These events are mostly out of the control of The System, and one will likely be the ignition.
|
||||
|
||||
- Corporate: ~~AGM Voting Proxy Release~~
|
||||
|
||||
- Corporate: ~~Quarterly Earnings (Q1 2021)~~
|
||||
|
||||
- Corporate: ~~CEO Announced~~
|
||||
|
||||
- Corporate: ~~AGM Vote Count + Board Elections~~
|
||||
|
||||
- Corporate: ~~RC Appointed as Chairman Official News~~
|
||||
|
||||
- Corporate: ~~New Cash Reserves from ATM Stock Offer~~
|
||||
|
||||
- Corporate: Dividend Issue / Stock Split
|
||||
|
||||
- Corporate: Major Partner Announcement
|
||||
|
||||
- Corporate: Possible NFT Announcement 2021-07-14?
|
||||
|
||||
- Market: Broader Retail Gains
|
||||
|
||||
- Market: $GME moves from Russell 2000 to Russell 1000 after close on 2021-06-25
|
||||
|
||||
- TBD / Unkown
|
||||
|
||||
Markets Go clank! Cover
|
||||
|
||||
Major policy announcements, world politics, regularly scheduled economic reports released... Pick your favorite here, cause they will and already have. This cover will justify why the markets are hemorhaging to hide the fact that positions are being liquidated to start paying for buying-back all those GME shares.
|
||||
|
||||
- Market: Global Supply Chain Issue
|
||||
|
||||
- Market: Liquidity Stress Tests
|
||||
|
||||
- [April 26th, 2021](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/mww2ah/dtcc_planning_liquidity_risk_testing_on_26th/)
|
||||
|
||||
- [May 13th, 2021](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/n763vq/dtcc_members_are_having_a_liquidity_check_may_13th/)
|
||||
|
||||
- Note: As far as I can tell, these happened yearly, typically in April/May, but only once... 2 back to back?
|
||||
|
||||
- Government: ~[POTUS joint address to Congress](https://apnews.com/article/joe-biden-nancy-pelosi-coronavirus-pandemic-267e753a5d1ab7a72d3274728b25f63c)\
|
||||
Green New Deal? Capital Gains Announcement: [similar to BS on 2021-04-22?](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-04-22/biden-to-propose-capital-gains-tax-as-high-as-43-4-for-wealthy)
|
||||
|
||||
- Government: [2021-05-06 Congressional Hearing with SEC / Gensler, DTCC / Bodson, FINRA / Cook.](https://financialservices.house.gov/news/documentsingle.aspx?DocumentID=407762)
|
||||
|
||||
- Government: [2021-05-26+27 Congressional Hearing with Big Banks](https://financialservices.house.gov/news/documentsingle.aspx?DocumentID=407740)
|
||||
|
||||
- Government: Monthly [Consumer Price Index numbers released](https://www.bls.gov/schedule/news_release/cpi.htm), next is June 13th
|
||||
|
||||
- Government: [US Treasury Stability Council Meeting June 11th](https://www.reuters.com/article/usa-treasury-stability-idUSL2N2N638S)\
|
||||
Possible platform for policy announcement? Typically hold 6 +/- a year, but this would be first of 2021 and was postponed from May 21st.
|
||||
|
||||
- Government: [US 2022 Fiscal Year Budget Proposal](https://www.reuters.com/world/us/biden-propose-6-trillion-us-budget-2022-fiscal-year-nyt-2021-05-27/)
|
||||
|
||||
- *(other suggestions wanted)*
|
||||
|
||||
4 - Fallguy, and the Lack of Prevention
|
||||
|
||||
Opinion - Status: Go for Launch ✅\
|
||||
*While they will likely have a fallguy decided upon prior to launch, I don't see it as a necessity that would delay it, certainly not like the Rules of Engagement or Funding would. I also think that nothing would keep them from changing the story if something else influences the narrative in an acceptable way shortly after liftoff.*
|
||||
|
||||
Blame!
|
||||
|
||||
After the market pain is significant enough that the public wants answers, why not lay all the blame on bad actors, and defer attention from the system to try to avoid additional exterior regulation.
|
||||
|
||||
- SHFs (now liquidated) as overly greedy and got what they deserved
|
||||
|
||||
- Retail (as Anarchists, or greedy and oportunistic)
|
||||
|
||||
- [Forbes article on January Gamma Squeeze](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/mvf7r3/forbes_reminder_as_we_hodl_towards_the_moass_gme/gvc5c8f/?context=3)
|
||||
|
||||
- Foreign Actors trying to destabilize the US Markets
|
||||
|
||||
- *(other suggestions w/ sources wanted)*
|
||||
|
||||
Control Public Image of the System via PR
|
||||
|
||||
- DTCC: ["We're doing a great job! Take our word for it!"](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/mvozps/dtcc_trying_to_get_ahead_of_the_story_the_most/?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share)
|
||||
|
||||
- DTCC: "We're announcing our plan to keep working on a plan to kind of band-aid a problem that's pretty bad and we've known about for awhile, and like we have definitely been talking about it and stuff, but now we're like really gonna talk about it using words like "in-depth analysis" cause up to now we were mostly just talking about it like how you tell that one friend *"yeah, we should totally hang out soon"* and then you never do, but not now cause we're serious now, and it's definitely not because we've gotta talk to the US Congress this week or anything. Like, honestly." AKA the announcement of [the DTCC's T+1 Settlement Plan.](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/n5b91j/dtcc_rolls_out_plan_and_faq_for_a_new_t1/)
|
||||
|
||||
* * * * *
|
||||
|
||||
...Meanwhile, at the SEC
|
||||
|
||||
"Let's at least *look* like we aren't asleep at the wheel here, lads"
|
||||
|
||||
- [Whistleblower Awards](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/mrfxvg/secgov_sec_awards_over_50_million_to_joint/)
|
||||
|
||||
- [47.4% of the Amount of all SEC Whistleblower Awards Ever Given Have Been Awarded in the Last 12 Months (Out of 105 Months of Program Activity)](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nf3n64/474_of_the_amount_of_all_sec_whistleblower_awards/)
|
||||
|
||||
- [Closed door meetings](https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/comments/mihiv9/another_sec_closed_door_meeting_scheduled_for_48/)
|
||||
|
||||
- [2021-05-27 Sunshine Act Meeting - Scheduled](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nhgh3i/sunshine_meeting_rescheduled_may_27/)
|
||||
|
||||
- These have been cancelled 4 out of 7 times... so far!
|
||||
|
||||
- Speech by SEC Commissioner Peirce inlcuding the line that the SEC is *"working on a report about the events related to meme stock trading earlier this year, and some regulatory initiatives may come out of that work."* and a few other statements about how the SEC shouldn't be concerned with firms loosing money... aka Tough Titties Archegos, et al.\
|
||||
[src post](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/n2ax63/something_apes_missed_read_this/)
|
||||
|
||||
- [SEC sues HF, filed 5/19/21- states NAKED SHORT SELLING is ILLEGAL and ask FOR a JULY TRIAL!!!](https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/comments/nhmaxw/sec_sues_hf_filed_51921_states_naked_short/)
|
||||
|
||||
Any and all additions you think may belong on this list, feel free to put in the comments, and I'll try to update and give credit where possible. If I got any of these wrong, or you've found better links that explain the rules, let me know in the comments and I'll make those edits.
|
||||
|
||||
Contributions noted where possible, and initial start from previous work on Recent Filings by [/u/Antioch_Orontes](https://www.reddit.com/u/Antioch_Orontes/) [here.](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/msh5mt/a_brief_overview_of_recent_filings_from_the_dtc/)
|
||||
|
||||
Looking for the TL;DR? It's at the top.
|
||||
|
||||
* * * * *
|
||||
|
||||
Buy. Hodl. Buckle Up.
|
||||
|
||||
... and make history.
|
||||
|
||||
🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀
|
||||
|
||||
Edit 2021-05-22:\
|
||||
Typos, add expected effective timeframe for DTC-2021-005. May 27th SEC Meeting Scheduled. SEC Lawsuit. Restructured the 3rd/Cover section to clarify for some comments and feedback about why I think cover is important. Also by now I've got plenty of reddit points/currency, so spend new money on GME!
|
||||
|
||||
Edit 2021-05-28:\
|
||||
SR-OCC-2021-003 approved. Add CPI release as market drop cover, US Treasury meeting, US Budget Proposal.
|
||||
|
||||
Edit 2021-06-21:\
|
||||
SR-DTC-005 approved and in effect, SR-NSCC-2021-002 / 801 approved. SR-DTC-2021-009 added. Updated expected timeline for SR-NSCC-2021-005
|
||||
|
||||
Edit 2021-06-23:\
|
||||
SR-DTC-2021-009 updated with additional info. Added move to Russell 1000 as possible cover story (thanks [u/godkyle11](https://reddit.com/user/godkyle11/) for the prompt). Updated section 3 to better illustrate corporate events now in the past.
|
114
DD/2021-05-21-Hank-Returns-from-the-Dead-and-Takes-a-Dump.md
Normal file
114
DD/2021-05-21-Hank-Returns-from-the-Dead-and-Takes-a-Dump.md
Normal file
@ -0,0 +1,114 @@
|
||||
Hank returns from the dead and takes a dump
|
||||
===========================================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/HomeDepotHank69](https://www.reddit.com/user/HomeDepotHank69/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nhs1wy/hank_returns_from_the_dead_and_takes_a_dump/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
[DD 👨🔬](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22DD%20%F0%9F%91%A8%E2%80%8D%F0%9F%94%AC%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||
********* I am not a financial advisor, this is not financial advice **********
|
||||
|
||||
Good morning apes, I'm back.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/zab5b8c2oe071.png?width=648&format=png&auto=webp&s=d180afc080ba02d1d170f5b2344372b9ccaadbdc)
|
||||
|
||||
BEFORE YOU SAY IT: Ik this technically makes me Kenny's son; however, as per the laws of nature, a human cannot birth a retarded ape.
|
||||
|
||||
Boy is it good to be back, apes. I've missed you all. I've been gone for a while but have not left the cause. I've been lurking in the shadows, jacking off to DD, and huffing WD40. When I was just a child (a boy in Bulgaria), my father said he was going to the store to get cigarettes... I think he's still there, must've been a long line for those Marlboros. Well apes, unlike my dad, I am returning to you.
|
||||
|
||||
Seriously though, thanks for all the messages and comments asking where I was. I fucking love this community. This has been an extremely busy week for me so I was not able to post any updates. My schedule is still pretty busy but it seems that the worst part is over, so I will hopefully be back more regularly to feed you that sweet confirmation bias. As many of you know, I have posted a few meme dumps. Well apes, today I will be taking another dump... A FUCKING DD DUMP (very sexual). So, this post will not be like the usual ones where it has one long theory, instead, it's gonna be a few theories and ideas.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/o15bfun4be071.png?width=922&format=png&auto=webp&s=ee145f5b13d10dd67ac639b287283af7fc49079c)
|
||||
|
||||
Covid-19, Jerome Powell, and January Squeezes
|
||||
|
||||
I think that everyone (us and Wallstreet included) has kind of brushed off just how crazy the end of January was. Five stocks squeezed to over double in value... all in the same week (BB, KOSS, EXPR, NOK, AMC)... oh yeah and this one stock had a mega-boner-super-asstastic-squeeze (GME). Short squeezes of those magnitudes are rare. But all of these stocks simultaneously squeezing is not weird... it's unprecedented. For a squeeze to happen, a stock must be heavily shorted and a rapid price movement must cause the shorts to be squeezed out of their positions, which adds more buying pressure. So you're telling me that all of these smaller, struggling companies had insanely high short interest and were squeezed at the same time and are not related? Yeah, I don't buy it. Below I will explain why.
|
||||
|
||||
Major short squeezes happen every few years. Little short squeezes may happen every so often, but the big ones happen very rarely. Why are they rare? Shorting is at the core of many HF strategies. It can be extremely profitable. When a fund decides to go short what do they do? They always announce it on CNBC, make a report, stir up news, and hope that others go in with them (they usually do). They only short companies that are overextended or are on the brink of bankruptcy, so it's usually a pretty sure thing. But sometimes, they're wrong. Sometimes they're wrong BIG.
|
||||
|
||||
Why do some of these monster squeezes happen? They usually happen because HFs overly short a stock and get hit by some bombshell news piece that squeezes them out of their position. Again, this does not happen often. Remember, HFs are run by very smart people with extensive resources and experience. When they make a bet, it's usually pretty well thought out.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/br3vblz3le071.png?width=828&format=png&auto=webp&s=69291c102a2e1a485be8f83c7297d484bd5da18f)
|
||||
|
||||
Enter Covid-19. Covid essentially opened the flood gates to shorting. Why? Because Covid promised to shut down the in-person economy for at least a year and promised to obliterate the stock market. Covid-19 created a unique financial situation. Obviously, it led to mass unemployment and a crushed stock market, but what was strange about Covid was that it crushed an extremely strong economy by prolonging and increasing unemployment and decreasing business activity without an actual economic disaster (i.e. most recessions happen because of a system or economic problem, this happened because of a virus, not a systemic economic problem). So, the general idea was that the economy, though strong, would be extremely slow for at least a year because of covid. What a perfect storm? The economy is in ruins, struggling brick and mortars will likely go bankrupt, you won't make any money going long on stocks because the market will be bad, we won't get a vaccine for at least a year, and the general economy will suck (these were their assumptions). So what did they do? They shorted.... a lot. Here is a chart of the volume and short volume of SPY:
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/kv85w7ns0h071.png?width=1214&format=png&auto=webp&s=d4338a41854ee42b8c9e6c98cd3fb32b0ee1eab7)
|
||||
|
||||
Obviously, this does not give a full picture of the market, but it gives the general picture that shorting increased dramatically during the covid crash. So yeah, they shorted. They shorted a lot, and it makes sense, it was rational. Remember when I said that certain struggling companies would be pushed to the brink of bankruptcy? Wow, another great shorting opportunity. So, they shorted BB, KOSS, EXPR, NOK, AMC, and GME extensively because of the premise that the economy would be shit for a while and that already struggling companies would go bankrupt (especially ones relying on in-person sales). How could you not profit on that? It's a slam dunk, right? RIGHT?
|
||||
|
||||
Well, they got two premises wrong. First, the vaccine came out way quicker than anyone expected. Second:
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/gs1iomezxd071.png?width=640&format=png&auto=webp&s=c29f5f22da63d376f0fe408282355e9ac6587187)
|
||||
|
||||
JPow turned on the money machines an unprecedented amount:
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/gqaopf35yd071.png?width=676&format=png&auto=webp&s=a5bd411020e4e236e73548fde85908a028ab6cb6)
|
||||
|
||||
Now one saw that coming. I mean people don't take the time to realize that the market is literally $100 higher now than it was precovid and we haven't even fully reopened. No one could've predicted that.
|
||||
|
||||
So they were wrong - the market recovered WAYYYY quicker. What were the consequences of that? Well, basically every single stock rose significantly and must faster than expected and the market made a full 180. Now obviously, they weren't short on everything in the market and still made tons of money on the 180 turn. However, I think that they over shorted the previously mentioned stocks because they thought they could hit the bankruptcy jackpot, which is why they all squoze together.
|
||||
|
||||
BUT, they wrong the worst with GME and that's why it squoze the most. Out of all the stocks, GME had the most positive news in 2020. On top of that, because of GME's debt and financials, they shorted it the most (we all know the famous 138%). That's why GME squoze the most, it's because the best things happened to the most shorted stock. That's why we're in this situation now.
|
||||
|
||||
Finally, I want to reemphasize how weird this all is. Please tell me how it is normal that 6 stocks, all formerly on the verge of bankruptcy traded in nearly identical patterns for the past year. Seriously look it up for yourself. They all squeeze at the end of January, shoot back up on February 24th, have a huge rise and fall on March 10th and are all trading significantly above their book value. HOW THE FUCK CAN YOU DENY THAT NOTHING IS GOING ON HERE? Do you really think that all of these stocks would trade in identical patterns like this? Yes, stocks trade in similar patterns all the time, but those are usually stocks that follow the SPX in an upward trend. I challenge you to find stocks that trade in such an obscure pattern so identically close to each other as these do. Seriously, does it make any sense that GME is trading at 5x what analysts say it should be? Same for AMC. It makes even less sense that all 6 of these stocks trade in an identical obscure pattern.
|
||||
|
||||
So why does that matter?
|
||||
|
||||
IMO, this observation highlights an absolutely terrifying market situation. We all know that naked/abusive shorting has been around for a while. However, it appears that because of low-interest rates and an ease of restrictions, it probably increased more during covid. There has been great reporting in this sub about the repo market, which demonstrates liquidity issues (for wrinkle brains, liquidity issues happen when you've borrowed too much and/or don't have many liquid assets (cash) and is how literally every financial crisis happens because overleveraging creates a house of cards that eventually crashes). Liquidity issues are insanely dangerous in today's market conditions. The FED has been aggressively pursuing quantitative easing (QE) policies where it buys bonds and other assets to help stabilize prices. This helps to push up the economy, along with low-interest rates. Well, when there's a liquidity crisis, the FED literally cannot purchase the bonds and could lose control of the economy. What could be even worse is if we see inflation happen. We are already seeing it happen but according to JPow iTs tRaNsiToRy... yeah I bet that ages well. If inflation happens, then the FED will probably have to raise rates to slow down the economy, which will also hurt the market.
|
||||
|
||||
This terrifies me because it means that institutions are overleveraged because of the easy money interest rates and we are nearing a liquidity crisis AND inflation could force the fed to hike rates. What happens when all of these things meet? The house of cards falls. So, let's say that there's an economic downturn (not a collapse, not a recession, not a depression, but a significant correction). That will lead to margin calls. If you get margin called and you have a significant short stake in, oh I don't know, a formerly struggling brick and mortar gaming retailer that just so happened to tongue punch the fart box of the entire market, that makes you........ FUCKED. Now let me make this clear, we should not be praying on the economy to collapse, that's idiotic. A collapsing economy means people lose their jobs, pensions, and people die. However, we need to be cognizant that we may have found a way to profit off of an impending correction.
|
||||
|
||||
GME and SPY
|
||||
|
||||
My DDs have also been laced with comparisons of SPY, VIX, and GME. As we know, GME has a negative beta so it is usually inversely proportional to SPY, which is extremely abnormal. GME seems to be directly proportional to the VIX. The VIX spikes during market volatility, which usually comes with margin calls. You put the rest together.
|
||||
|
||||
However, I found something very, very interesting. According to my chart, it seems that GME is consolidating to earnings and the annual meeting. Obviously, this could be broken at any time or I could be completely wrong. It could also do what I said it's doing in my last DD and just keep forming new consolidations. Here's what I drew for GME:
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/r0wws7b78e071.png?width=1882&format=png&auto=webp&s=880c42035e34628a43a14f1d18c000f50b2a1585)
|
||||
|
||||
It seems that they line up right around the blue question mark, which is earnings. The annual meeting is the very next day 6/9 (lmao nice). For those of you who just popped a quarter chub because you saw the yellow lines, yes those are my FTD cycle lines. The next one is sometime next week. Refer to [u/criand](https://www.reddit.com/u/criand/)'s DD because I am crowning him FTDaddy.
|
||||
|
||||
It would make sense for GME to consolidate up to this point. Last earnings we saw a big move (not in our fucking favor though). This earnings, however, comes before the meeting, which is significant. As many of you have pointed out, this meeting could expose the massive number of synthetic shares through voting numbers. I have also noticed that there has been absolutely no news relating to GME for the past few weeks, which is very strange considering the barrage we've been getting the last few months. Could this mean they are saving something(s) up for the annual meeting? This is all speculation but it would make sense to me.
|
||||
|
||||
So, remember that date, 6/9 (lmao)? Well, look at SPY:
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/33ede0v39e071.png?width=1818&format=png&auto=webp&s=6d2564167f462ae8cdbb28ed41328d569b0936a9)
|
||||
|
||||
I call the red line the death line because it's where I call BS on this absolutely crazy pricing based on historical pricing TA (this is a week chart btw). See that apex, guess what day it converges? 6/9. Coincidence? Yeah probably. Something to give you hope and help you sleep at night? Of course. Just to give you a little more confirmation bias, check out RIS (again one week chart), last time we were this oversold, the market literally died. Considering what I said above about liquidity, we could be seeing some major, major shit happen soon. AGAIN, this is just absolute speculation and conjecture and is probably not related...
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/xxrtd1os9e071.jpg?width=1804&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=c50f0c0d9652d570b14bb3bbc6414fde12a073d1)
|
||||
|
||||
The point of this is that SPY cannot keep these prices up forever especially considering the likelihood of inflation, the possible liquidity crisis, and the overleveraging we are seeing. GME, moreover, should not be behaving like it is without something fucky going on underneath. Something's gonna give soon, apes.
|
||||
|
||||
The Fucking midday volume spikes
|
||||
|
||||
The stuff above was mostly my theories and opinions, this is probably the best actual new DD that I have in this post. I have said in many of my DDs that there are these random midday positive volume spikes. I always noticed them, as I'm sure many of you have, but never took the time to document them or to do anything with them, until now. Below is a table of these spikes from the past few weeks:
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/pxhieq516e071.png?width=1284&format=png&auto=webp&s=e40f6d81c2f5761ca021f1f6721e595ee81030ad)
|
||||
|
||||
EDIT: This is what the volume spikes look like (don't mind the blue and yellow lines, just look at that giant green dildo in the middle of the day:
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/cfqnjxjr5h071.png?width=850&format=png&auto=webp&s=60194d4a42674e06cdeceaff0f3f110d69942e12)
|
||||
|
||||
The commonalities in all of these are: they are positive volume (i.e. price goes higher), they are the highest candle in their given day BY A MILE, they happen between 11 am-2 pm, they happen on absolutely no news. This is only from a few trading days, so it is by no means exhaustive. However, I went through and looked and this has been happening for a very long time now and it is consistent and common. Seriously check it out for yourself. Go on a 1-minute time frame on any given week and you'll find at least one of these random spikes. I also looked at AMC... same exact thing happens with that stock (goes back to my theory about them being related). So what does this mean? Quite honestly I have no clue. It's strange that it happens in the same time period, is the highest volume in the day, and is positive. Could it be a short covering? That's what I'm guessing. However, I need more data to make that conclusion. My next DD will probably be about uncovering more to this. Note that I did not cherry-pick the above data, this is just the most recent data from the past few weeks, this trend is extremely persistent and I intend to look into it more and invite other apes to do the same. IMO, this probably has something to do with a smaller time frame FTD cycle because of how common and persistent it is. So, expect my next DD to be something about this. Sorry I couldn't do a full DD on this right now, again don't have the time currently, so this is just a little cock tease, but expect something about this in the future.
|
||||
|
||||
With that in mind, just wanna give a shoutout to [u/criand](https://www.reddit.com/u/criand/) for being an absolute god. This guy pumps out DD I like I pump out turds after Chipotle. His recent DD on the FTD cycle is the best FTD cycle DD on this sub by far and he basically cracked the FTD cycle code.
|
||||
|
||||
Closing Thots
|
||||
|
||||
Apes, I'll say it again, none of what is happening with GME is normal. I could make a laundry list of the abnormalities - the price being 5x analyst predictions but not budging, OTC trading, random volume spikes, FTD cycle, difficulty to borrow, relatedness to other shorted stocks, consolidation patterns, gigantic drops, etc. etc. etc. The point is, something's going on and something's gotta give. What do all of these abnormalities make me?
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/6adccfbabe071.png?width=1080&format=png&auto=webp&s=f17c0be2c20907e258334ba516103fadfb4fc868)
|
||||
|
||||
HARDER THAN EVER
|
||||
|
||||
Thanks again for understanding why I was gone for a little bit, I really appreciate it. Idk when I'll be coming back because the next few weeks are not super predictable for me and could be busy... but I will be here... watching.... reading.... jacking off. As always, stay strong apes.
|
||||
|
||||
TL;DR
|
||||
|
||||
Hank is back. Thanks for your patience. Look closer at the January squeeze. Group of stocks moving in unison. Not a coincidence. Covid created perfect storm for all of this. Economy could correct/crash. Inflation/leveraging/liquidity bad. SPY too big. GME might benefit from this. Midday volume spikes exist. I am curious. I will investigate more. I have a half chub.
|
||||
|
||||
********* I am not a financial advisor, this is not financial advice **********
|
@ -0,0 +1,53 @@
|
||||
Here's what will happen after the Reverse Repo Limit Reaches Its Maximum (Spoilers: Very much NOT good for Citadel and friends)
|
||||
|
||||
===============================================================================================================================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/AcedVector](https://www.reddit.com/user/AcedVector/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nkgqje/heres_what_will_happen_after_the_reverse_repo/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
[DD 👨🔬](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22DD%20%F0%9F%91%A8%E2%80%8D%F0%9F%94%AC%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||
I recently saw a post from [r/DDIntoGME](https://www.reddit.com/r/DDIntoGME/) which had said that essentially, if the overnight reverse repo lending that's been going on keeps going in the same pattern it has been, it is going to start reaching its "maximum" amount of lending(500 BIllion) around Friday.
|
||||
|
||||
I wanted to piggyback off of that post because it brought to my mind the question, "What would genuinely happen once it reached its maximum? Would the whole system go kaboom?" Well, to answer that question, let's try to understand the context here a bit first.
|
||||
|
||||
In these reverse repo agreements, the FED is selling bonds to banks (which are presumably lent to HFs) which takes AWAY liquidity(cash money) from the market as the banks are paying cash for the bonds. This isn't necessarily a bad thing given the amount of liquidity that was added TO the market from stimulus checks and overall money supply being at all time highs.
|
||||
|
||||
EDIT: Clarified on the liquidity part as it wasn't as clear
|
||||
|
||||
What's causing the proverbial wrench in the gears here are that these hedgies are overleverged to the tits from not only shorting the treasuries bond market, but also having shit for mortgage backed securities in the housing market, and naked shorting a whole bunch of other stocks with unlimited leverage, with the pure intention of driving multiple companies to bankruptcy.
|
||||
|
||||
Here's where it gets really bad: these banks and hedgefunds absolutely NEED these bonds as collateral because they have overleveraged so hard there aren't enough bonds to go around, most likely multiple times over; the FED is in possession of a lot of these bonds so by temporarily allowing banks to come into possession of them they can kick the can down the road, but what happens when the maximum amount of lending is reached?
|
||||
|
||||
Let's walk through the process:
|
||||
|
||||
1\. As time goes on, theoretically either more counterparties would need bonds as collateral or the existing counterparties would need MORE bonds to post as collateral to keep kicking the can down the road and prevent being margin called.
|
||||
|
||||
2\. Someone gets margin called as they can't post enough collateral (theoretically bonds lent by the FED), causing a cascade of margin calls across the bonds market leading to a short squeeze of treasury bonds from liquidation.
|
||||
|
||||
3\. The liquidation of various securities (such as stock postions) coupled with the spike in treasuries bond price would lead to a stock market crash, leading to even MORE margin calls from overleveraged short positions(some even within the same firms that got margin called before, this is probably where Citadel would be in this scenario as they shorted both the treasury bonds market and meme stocks)
|
||||
|
||||
4\. Short squeeze of all meme stocks from forced liquidation as the tendieman cometh.
|
||||
|
||||
(This part is edited as of edit 3) How soon would this be able to happen? Well, this still remains more of a theoretical unfortunately. Since after some kind redditors corrected me and I found out the 500 billion limit was for repo agreements only and that the reverse repo agreement is limited to 80 billion per counterparty (as of right now there is an estimated 7.2 billion per counterparty, read edit 3 to see why), it would seem there's a while before it gets to that point, IF it gets to that point. I doubt the FED would accept lending 80 billion per counterparty (there's 54 counterparties as of the most current agreement), so in my opinion I feel like the only way we see this happen is if someone gets margin called, or the FED stops accepting to lend as many bonds to counterparties. The more likely option, believe it or not is that someone (maybe a certain hedgie Citadel 😉) gets margin called. The FED doesn't really have enough of a reason to say "hey you look fucked and giving you bonds doesn't look like it'll help", so that would leave the margin call option. Given the other catalysts Citadel and co have to watch out for in the near future (T + 21 today, gamestop earnings, the shareholder meetings, how fucked they are in the housing market, the list goes on), I wouldn't be surprised if we see a margin call happen soon that would trip some wires in the bonds market and cause a short squeeze that leads to the MOASS.
|
||||
|
||||
Hope this jumbled mess made some sense to you all, as I'm writing this now its about midnight so I wouldn't be surprised if I happened to make a couple of mistakes when writing this out. If anything, I'll hang out in the comments and make some edits along the way. :)
|
||||
|
||||
Edit: people were asking about the source post I pulled the limit from so I've linked it below. Give that OP some love!
|
||||
|
||||
Edit 2: I've seen some questions asking if cash can just be used as collateral instead for treasury bonds. Now, this may be wrong so take this answer with a grain of salt, but as far as I understand, you need treasury bonds as collateral to prevent being margin called from shorting treasury bonds. These are government bonds, which people have invested in with the idea that their money is safe and sound. If at any point they need to take money out of, say a 10 year bond, but all of a sudden the bond disappeared, thats ALL of their money gone.. and I doubt the US wants THAT to happen because of what it means for the US economy.
|
||||
|
||||
Edit 3(Edited once again): There's some talk about the 500 billion cap being for repo agreements only and not reverse repo agreements, after researching more and some friendly redditors correcting me in the comments about it I saw that it seems like this is the case as the reverse repo cap had been virtually removed in 2013. The only type of cap I see is that there is a maximum of 80 billion per counterparty when it comes to reverse repo overnight agreements. Given there are currently 54 counterparties as of the latest agreement of 394 billion, there's an average of 7.2 billion per counterparty as of right now. However, I genuinely doubt the FED would accept lending 54 counterparties 80 BILLION each. That would be over 4 trillion used daily in bonds lent out. A margin call by other means would be more likely to happen in my opinion.
|
||||
|
||||
Edit 4: I've seen a lot of questions asking if the FED would just raise the limit to try to kick the can down the road, and I don't think they would do that for a couple of reasons. The first is that I presume they have the foresight (unlike the greedy hedgefunds) to see that many people's finances are being put at risk so they would rather have this end sooner than later. That, and they stand to gain a lot from squeezing hedgefunds and liquidating. The main argument that comes to my mind is that when the MOASS happens and everyone gets their tendies they are going to be able to get some nice tax money off of that (a lot of rich people hide their wealth in offshore accounts so they don't have to pay as many taxes, so its good for some of this money to be in the hands of retail).
|
||||
|
||||
Source post I got the upper limit from:
|
||||
|
||||
<https://www.reddit.com/r/DDintoGME/comments/nk9979/reverse_repo_overnight_lending_will_hit_the_upper/?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share>
|
||||
|
||||
FED links about the reverse repo/ repo agreements: <https://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/domestic-market-operations/monetary-policy-implementation/repo-reverse-repo-agreements/repurchase-agreement-operational-details>
|
||||
|
||||
<https://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/rrp_faq>
|
22
DD/2021-06-21-Friendly-Reminder-that-Shorts-Never-Covered.md
Normal file
22
DD/2021-06-21-Friendly-Reminder-that-Shorts-Never-Covered.md
Normal file
@ -0,0 +1,22 @@
|
||||
A friendly reminder that shorts never covered: 3 images that clearly reveal the short fuckery 🚨📈🚀🚀🚀🚀
|
||||
==========================================================================================================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/broccaaa](https://www.reddit.com/user/broccaaa/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/o4ps1c/a_friendly_reminder_that_shorts_never_covered_3/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
[Education 👨🏫 | Data 🔢](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22Education%20%F0%9F%91%A8%E2%80%8D%F0%9F%8F%AB%20%7C%20Data%20%F0%9F%94%A2%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||

|
||||
|
||||
[Source](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/mvdgf5/the_naked_shorting_scam_in_numbers_ai_detection/)
|
||||
|
||||

|
||||
|
||||
[Source](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/mvdgf5/the_naked_shorting_scam_in_numbers_ai_detection/)
|
||||
|
||||

|
||||
|
||||
[Source](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/n1vgbb/the_naked_shorting_scam_using_etfs_mass_shifting/)
|
@ -0,0 +1,134 @@
|
||||
It's Just a Pyramid Scheme Part 1: The Missing Cornerstone
|
||||
==========================================================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/hell-mitc](https://www.reddit.com/user/hell-mitc/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nexfv4/its_just_a_pyramid_scheme_part_1_the_missing/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
[DD 👨🔬](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22DD%20%F0%9F%91%A8%E2%80%8D%F0%9F%94%AC%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||
Hey Everyone!
|
||||
|
||||
What a fucking few days hey? GME closes almost 15% up, streamers that are more interested in their weird tarot card readings than actual data, FUD that we can barely even spot anymore, and an IV increase that is being hidden by a hidden company none of us have even talked about. Wait... what was that last part? Oh yeah haha, another fucking DTCC that we have all neglected or overlooked or just got buried somewhere. Here it is, another banker filled board that oversees ALL OPTION CLEARING DATA.
|
||||
|
||||
No, I am not fucking around - it is stated on their website:
|
||||
|
||||
<https://www.theocc.com/>
|
||||
|
||||
The mother fucking OCC.
|
||||
|
||||
<https://preview.redd.it/n2mh2lwgkrz61.png?width=1035&format=png&auto=webp&s=1505e0d8779a48ceeaa9797df719a8f203b2200e>
|
||||
|
||||
The largest derivatives clearing organization. Stability. Integrity. Overseen by the SEC and CFTC. Major OTC clearing for options.
|
||||
|
||||
Who might want to clear options OTC to maintain a free market that doesn't drown them?
|
||||
|
||||
How about banks and institutions who accepted these giant fucking pile of dog shit option contracts from market makers who are hedging bets and cut off buying/selling in Jan?
|
||||
|
||||
1. Chairman - One of the most influential people in finance (knows Chicago trade and mergers origins).
|
||||
|
||||
2. Managing Director, Head of Americas Asset Management Services, Bank of America - Literally still works for BoA, previously Morgan Stanley. What a fucking conflict considering what is currently going on between apes and the fact that BoA holds shares and puts on GME, and we have successfully proved the data is being manipulated (Ill come back to more on manipulation through these guys).
|
||||
|
||||
3. Founding Member - Literally has worked for BoA, Goldmans, Morgan Stanley. Probably one of the geniuses behind this since he's the tech guy.
|
||||
|
||||
4. Partner and Head of Market Structure, Wolverine Trading - DONT THESE GUYS HOLD A VERY LARGE, UNHEDGED PUT POSITION ON GME?!?! WHAT IN THE FLYING FUCK IS GOING ON?!
|
||||
|
||||
5. Executive Vice President & CIO, Interactive Brokers, LLC - DIDNT THESE GUYS HALT FUCKING TRADING TO GME IN JAN???? WE FUCKING KNOW THEY DID.
|
||||
|
||||
6. Managing Director, General Counsel Department at Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC - Oh another banker overseeing the largest derivatives clearing corp, when the banks are currently going through a liquidity crisis.
|
||||
|
||||
7. Vice Chairman, NASDAQ Inc. - I actually think the NASDAQ is probably the free and fair market we are looking for. I have no comment.
|
||||
|
||||
8. Chief Strategy Officer, Intercontinental Exchange, Inc. - Seriously. This is getting tedious. CSO. ICE which owns NYSE. Oh, and represents them on the DTCC board. Lol fuck me, right? But retail is definitely the problem.
|
||||
|
||||
9. Executive Vice President, Chief Operating Officer, Cboe Global Markets - No issue with this guy. I actually think the CBOE Bats thing might be beneficial to us. But that is another DD.
|
||||
|
||||
10. Senior Vice President - Head of Product Management for North American Market Services, NASDAQ Inc. - Ex Goldman-Sachs guy. Obviously.
|
||||
|
||||
11. Senior Vice President - Head of Product Management for North American Market Services, NASDAQ Inc. - Just another individual investor exchange board member. TD Ameritrade (didn't they do some shady shit?). Anyway.
|
||||
|
||||
12. Chief Regulatory Officer, Intercontinental Exchange & General Counsel, NYSE Group - Oh look, another ICE/NYSE lawyer, which has let Citadel and friends run the show on the NYSE, especially GME.
|
||||
|
||||
13. Former Financial Executive - Meh no issues she seems to have been just a hard nosed finance person. Unless someone wants to dig in more, no complaints, just a derivative guru.
|
||||
|
||||
14. Managing Partner, Windham Capital Management Inc. - Oh look, an ex Bear Sterns PRESIDENT. Curious how he made out after the crash and I would be even more curious about his insider trading reports for Bear.
|
||||
|
||||
15. Chairman, Risk Committee, Kepos Capital LP - Oh look, an ex Goldman Sachs partner. Again...
|
||||
|
||||
16. General Counsel, Citadel Securities - My fucking favorite board member on the list. This is pretty much self explanatory. Oh, and a FINRA grad.
|
||||
|
||||
17. Co-founder and Chief Executive Officer of DASH Financial Technologies - Meh. Nothing crazy. Has a vested interest in OTC markets for large institutions.
|
||||
|
||||
18. Managing Director and Global Head of CCP Strategy and Resource Optimization, Morgan Stanley - Literally works at Morgan Stanley
|
||||
|
||||
19. Economist - Ex Federal Reserve person. Regulated OTC derivatives market.
|
||||
|
||||
<https://www.theocc.com/Company-Information/Board-of-Directors>
|
||||
|
||||
There you go. That is the start of how the system has be built to keep the wealthy, well, wealthy. And what I am going to conclude from the next bit should really show how they're bending the fucking rules to make sure this doesn't cause too much of a ripple (in my opinion - this is how I cope in case they decide to fuck it all over again and say "well retards it went to $x is that not enough? Greedy apes").
|
||||
|
||||
I said once, derivatives and options surrounding GME have become the main issue. This is how they are balancing their books to avoid margin calls through their lenders (I.E. Goldmans, Morgan, BoA, get the idea here of *how and why*?) They are purposefully changing the math, and I think I can prove it, right now.
|
||||
|
||||
NYSE OPTIONS CONTRACTS
|
||||
|
||||
I found the mapping data for the NYSEArca contracts and it has some interesting data. They don't even consolidate the option data until 5pm the next business day. Which means it is 100% probable that the OTC trades take over for deals to settle option contracts for large financial institutions the next day. And the lights are most likely on because they are making phone call after phone call trying to run their quants and figure out what they can trade for some moon tickets. This means that these guys are trading on the back end, in bulk, being overseen by our new favorite board of bankers and lawyers.
|
||||
|
||||
<https://ftp.nyse.com/>
|
||||
|
||||
<https://preview.redd.it/r0c51cybxrz61.png?width=651&format=png&auto=webp&s=09ed8102c962ab2f04b243d4244b6ec5fa76e35d>
|
||||
|
||||
Ive been cross referencing the ArcaAmex data with the OCC data, because on OCC you can actually check option data (which seems awesome because you would think the main derivative clearing corp would have up to date info). And there is definitely some weird data coming from the OCC.
|
||||
|
||||
<https://preview.redd.it/6hkc2jbfyrz61.png?width=297&format=png&auto=webp&s=c437168f9d1cad8b2663d52847586eda0a97db92>
|
||||
|
||||
0 OI for GME May 14 Calls (all in the money in this case).
|
||||
|
||||
0 OI for GME May 14 Puts (all in the money).
|
||||
|
||||
Ok but ok. Maybe they dont update it. But the May 21 Calls are there...
|
||||
|
||||
<https://preview.redd.it/mat2h8ltyrz61.png?width=307&format=png&auto=webp&s=52f3d526485cd19469ff1d87056c56309f5df70c>
|
||||
|
||||
Ok... And before you say these arent sourced from everywhere:
|
||||
|
||||
<https://preview.redd.it/qqluvrv2zrz61.png?width=954&format=png&auto=webp&s=65e87312e800ff73309689899b93f3efaed9cd71>
|
||||
|
||||
The info is here <https://www.theocc.com/Market-Data/Market-Data-Reports/Series-and-Trading-Data/Series-Search?symbol=gme&symbolType=Options>
|
||||
|
||||
These should literally be updated daily. And depending on who's buying and paying attention, there should definitely be some movement. But anyway, lets go look at TODAYS data for May 21 GME options, through the company that OCC links all their derivative data through.
|
||||
|
||||
<https://oic.ivolatility.com/oic_adv_options.j;jsessionid=a-dh_HwzV6lh>
|
||||
|
||||
<https://preview.redd.it/iwi1zukvzrz61.png?width=1905&format=png&auto=webp&s=a5d5a158b26d1831c2170a8ecc8fb48fa8a2db88>
|
||||
|
||||
Notice anything weird about the IV? And the cost of the option vs the strike price? Literally the Deep In The Money calls mean worth is the exact same cost as a share. And we know that everything about "free and fair market" in the last little while has been about "taking the best average cost at market value for our clients" (my broker touts this - I assume most do).
|
||||
|
||||
And the IV is significantly lower than what other sources are saying. Barchart has $10 calls at 1600% IV, yahoo same thing. Odd that this data is almost purposefully deflating the IV of GME, considering after the last massive increase in IV was Jan. No, seriously:
|
||||
|
||||
<https://preview.redd.it/6ro04put0sz61.png?width=547&format=png&auto=webp&s=5a1e601fc6c657a49ec675ced38e8852f81917ed>
|
||||
|
||||
And if we go back to the NYSE Arca data, the consolidated short interest changes with how many shares are short as well. Check this out, I am only going to go to the end of Jan because there is a ton of data, but maybe Ill do the rest after to prove their algo is betting against retail. Because they only changed it once WSB reallyyy started to get into GME mid January. And they didn't expect the upward buy pressure, so they manipulated the market through the OCC to make this work in their favor.
|
||||
|
||||
<https://preview.redd.it/cjoc7rzc4sz61.png?width=562&format=png&auto=webp&s=2b3635a3b7388c689b51820f2ec251819e3b6380>
|
||||
|
||||
The short volume literally started to MIMIC THE FUCKING BUY VOLUME AFTER MID JAN. HOLY FUCKING PYRAMID SCHEME BATMAN.
|
||||
|
||||
I said it before, and I personally think this definitively concludes that the banks, shitadel and other hedge funds, and the regulatory bodies like the OCC are working against us through algos, reddit scraping, and OTC. Thanks for attending the fucking TedTalk. I hope we can all buy and hold more. Not financial advice. Just an ape who wants tendies from these people who have made a fortune off our hard work and lower class lifestyle. Buckle up hodl, and dont forget your hellmits.
|
||||
|
||||
<https://preview.redd.it/suvwgwjq5sz61.png?width=487&format=png&auto=webp&s=35219ddfceb080e409f2bf4cd0790476d237d3ca>
|
||||
|
||||
References:
|
||||
|
||||
1. <https://ftp.nyse.com/>
|
||||
|
||||
2. <https://www.theocc.com/>
|
||||
|
||||
3. <https://www.theocc.com/Company-Information/Board-of-Directors>
|
||||
|
||||
4. <https://oic.ivolatility.com/oic_adv_options.j;jsessionid=a-dh_HwzV6lh>
|
||||
|
||||
5. <https://www.barchart.com/stocks/quotes/GME/options?moneyness=allRows>
|
||||
|
||||
6. Oh and the fucking terminal drops.
|
@ -0,0 +1,146 @@
|
||||
It's Just a Pyramid Scheme Part 2: The Top of the Pyramid
|
||||
=========================================================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/hell-mitc](https://www.reddit.com/user/hell-mitc/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nmmbtc/its_just_a_pyramid_scheme_part_2_the_top_of_the/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
[DD 👨🔬](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22DD%20%F0%9F%91%A8%E2%80%8D%F0%9F%94%AC%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||
Whats up fellow degenerates?!
|
||||
|
||||
I hate that you people make me do this but TL;DR - CTA, ICE, Banks, FINRA, Fed, money printer go brrr, and we are all living in a simulated pyramid scheme.
|
||||
|
||||
Another crazy week and it isn't even over yet. Looks like the DD and everything else we are seeing seems to be actually real (kind of fucked up, I know, our confirmation biases are off the chart, especially after reading buttfarm69s crazy fucking DD earlier. And obviously HOC2 and 3 have been an eye opener for how FINRA "governs" all the data reporting).
|
||||
|
||||
I'm back with another hypothetical, philosophical, technical evidence based, adderall fueled erection, DD. I wanted to post this a while ago and just waited because we are all just kind of sick of reading. But here's some confirmation about time travel and how our favorite GME investor(s) might be coming from the future. I hadn't even posted this yet and Cohen came out with how we were all feeling when this started going up again (boner city amirite?).
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/km88pvw2rq171.jpg?width=4032&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=c074451f83b4bfc8e64e468af0a4cd086cf96770)
|
||||
|
||||
Hehehehe it's big right? I saw this at my buddies 3 weeks ago and thought of all of us, but had to wait. It wasn't right yet. It is now right.
|
||||
|
||||
Anyway. Theres a real DD encased in this rocketship flying hard-on; it's all about how the crazy pyramid scheme we live in creates an illusion like we should just be born, work, retire for a couple years, and die. The circle of life right? Wrong mother fucker. We should be able to enjoy the little things in life like watching our kids grow up, or staying healthy and feeling great, or doing a bunch of blow out of a strippers crack -- whatever you want really. Yet here we are. 300k of us (120k degenerates online not working clearly) slaving away hoping there's more to life. And yes, it takes a village and different facets of society to succeed, but people should do what they love, and finding out how they can succeed and actually benefit society would be better than sticking them in a corner because we don't really care or because a billionaire needs another yacht. But, I digress. We want to change the world but chances are our tendies will just help to innovate and *hopefully* change things for the better. There are still going to be corners of the world that have to carve giant flying dick rockets to survive. So barring that, are we going to change the world? Or just change those in control of the status quo? Ill leave that for you to decide because what I have figured out is just a round about way of saying how fucked we all are even after this moons, because we have been borrowing from our collective future in this capitalistic world for far too long (MMT). I'm greedy too so I don't really care. I just don't want to get up at 5 or 6am anymore.
|
||||
|
||||
Lets get started instead of going though some philosophical debate about ourselves hey? Ok. Fuck you too.
|
||||
|
||||
You wanted some mind-bending drugs to help wrap your head around this gongshow of an illusion we're in?
|
||||
|
||||
Well, I don't have any, I only have data and the greatest pyramid/ponzi scheme ever sold (I'm going to use these interchangeably, because its almost pretty much the same - one you buy in and sell to others [like when I tell people I just like any stock], and the other, you buy in and get paid with promises from someone else's deposit [exactly what is happening with GME from our hedgefuck friends], zero sum game and someone loses).
|
||||
|
||||
Once I wrote a DD on how we actually get the data from Yahoo, or Nasdaq, etc. I guess until now I never really realized how important that data was. If you did, congrats and fuck you, where's the DD? Seriously, post it Ill read it. In all seriousness I haven't seen too many mentions of these guys.
|
||||
|
||||
Anyway, I decided again we need to start hunting for that full process. Because now more than ever, we are being told that data is popping up as "Just a bug, bro". This term seems to be used as an old school trader term, "oh it's just a glitch" was a comment made when something happened that you couldn't explain, because chances are it was a competitor fucking you in the ass or getting a jump on you. I can tell you right now, risk and compliance guys (lawyers and adjusters), don't fuck around. If it can cause issues in underlying code, it won't exist for long. In fact, most of what I'm about to show you is rigorously tested before you're allowed to be an exchange at market. I can say that because if you comb through the technical documents, you'll see that FINRA is the main factor here. And honestly I am thinking we should build the A.P.E. (Ape Penis Exchange) Exchange. Yes, exchange should be included twice to get across how retarded we are.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/t1nwc41b6r171.png?width=268&format=png&auto=webp&s=f616836b5322e08ee17c510e5df3bf062400816d)
|
||||
|
||||
Your knowledge about the market is about to change forever. Because (and I quote myself here), I'm about to blow your mind like our moms should have done to our Dads instead of letting him finish inside her and bringing us into this clown world pyramid scheme.
|
||||
|
||||
We've been seeing a lot about NBBO and what it means to the surrounding price that we see placed into the market. And here is where the CTA comes into play.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/wdqt37wd6r171.png?width=624&format=png&auto=webp&s=3ae9086c0ff19684275630f467a0fd846f07788a)
|
||||
|
||||
Basically, anything that has to do with the NYSE, flows through the CTA. NASDAQ gets that data, your broker gets that data, Shitadel gets that data, IEX gets that data, etc. and they all disseminate it accordingly. Based on the wording, I do not believe the "central consolidator" is a separate entity, just a platform that gives us the CTS and CQS. Although, based on HOC yesterday, it is entirely plausible that it is FINRA. Lol. And they mostly capture that data because if you look at the tape corrections in May, they JUST updated some Jan 29 info for GME.
|
||||
|
||||
This data effectively gives us the ability to calculate the NBBO, and they make the decisions to halt. Thanks, FINRA.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/q00o75lj6r171.png?width=647&format=png&auto=webp&s=10da06c3201ddf4a9e9011ec80e614e60facd8ef)
|
||||
|
||||
"National Best Bid and Offer is a regulation by the United States Securities and Exchange Commission that requires brokers to execute customer trades at the best available (lowest) ask price when buying securities, and the best available (highest) bid price when selling securities, as governed by Regulation NMS."
|
||||
|
||||
These are typically in groups of 100, like we all know, and can have a spread depending on how fast the data gets there and back again, by Bilbo Baggins (latency, son). I don't really want to get into how this is all working, because latency plays a factor and is described on the website, and because people with more knowledge than me can explain it better. What I did want it to lead to was this; this data is OWNED by one group. Another company listed on the NYSE, in which the DMM is, yeah, that one.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/9a7f1t9z6r171.png?width=268&format=png&auto=webp&s=c2e674ffc7b76aa2b92af16dfffd9ad4cee423dc)
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/5egogcw17r171.png?width=602&format=png&auto=webp&s=cd15beaf5d39ccbc165af94c1a49915b77164b7c)
|
||||
|
||||
Fucking ICE, again.
|
||||
|
||||
Is it just me that it seems weird to that the Intercontinental Exchange, is listed on the NYSE, has had steady growth with, like, no fucking bad times, and has this intimate relationship with a DMM that can pretty much do whatever they want? All while SIMULTANEOUSLY CONTROLLING THE FUCKING DATA TAPES??? They literally accept the data, consolidate the data, disseminate the data, and trade their own symbol, through themselves??? Are you fucking kidding me? In what realm is this not a monopoly on data or a conflict of interest? I have said from the beginning this is a data whore competition. And those in control don't want to lose that, they want to keep the cash cow producing, and they want retail to keep throwing their money in the pot so they can see where it is going (hint odd lots, PFOF, robinhood, blah blah blah).
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/z2kifx567r171.png?width=489&format=png&auto=webp&s=a7f461370140863d6fb382e972ae5fb5d0537b09)
|
||||
|
||||
or, rick and his banana
|
||||
|
||||
Here is where it gets a bit fun. Who are the entities involved in commenting on these rules? You know, the odd lot ones that they have wanted to contribute to data tapes for 2 years that are still being worked out.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/5w2bere87r171.png?width=624&format=png&auto=webp&s=7ca38bae34ce7cf4ac78c0e8a5d4336f38b963bd)
|
||||
|
||||
This pretty much says they want to include what retail is paying and disseminate it on the data feeds, which would give a pretty decent glimpse into (as per the SEC MIDAS) the growth of odd lots from "5.7% of volume and 21% of trades in 2013 to almost 11% of volume and 38% of trades in 2018". Holy fuck. Almost 40% is retail blocks? Well who benefits from this? Retail, obviously, it'll drive the price up when HFTs aren't as effective because retards just hit "Market Buy" (you're fucking right I do). And as per our buddy Jim, "price doesn't matter to these guys they just keep buying". Haha fuck ya we do. Anyway, here is who commented:
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/v5sa1pk97r171.png?width=624&format=png&auto=webp&s=e6821af26d86b98169f5e46b5c4891bd8c81ea41)
|
||||
|
||||
Astonishingly enough, most of them are positive. Long term investors might not benefit as much as, say, giant hedge funds who trade extremely fast? And skimming bit-by-bit equals A LOT.
|
||||
|
||||
The anonymous ones are funny -- "HELL NO". Obviously someone is making some money off of NBBOs and Odd Lots. Shitadel, however, 100% for. Weird. Butttt, our theories have come to conclude that Kenni Boi wants to know what retail is doing because we are dumb money, and he likes to bet against us. This is why his risk management strat is so important here. As history states, average hodl time has gone from 7 years to 100 days (I cant remember that reference, it's here somewhere). This is why the banks invested so heavily in hedgefucks and derivatives. In my last DD, I showed you an organization called the Options Clearing Corp, that seems to be helping them cook their numbers. I noticed last Friday, that as soon as I posted their OIV website about the IV not matching Yahoo and Barchart, they closed the bypass. Lol. If that doesn't help your confirmation bias about who is watching us, I don't know what will. Because as I stated, they seem to be changing the greeks in order to manipulate the books. For the banks. And I have found some even more fun information with regard to how these entities are overseen (if you want to call it that). So why is this company overrun with banking fatcats and executives? Because it is the banking brokerage arms that are fucked here. Not just the hedgefucks. And they legit think they are too big to fail. Fucking Dimon and that dumbass smug look on his face. Just mocking us because they think we don't know what we know. I'm going to build the A.P.E. Exchange and not let you play in it! Too immature? Ok moving on.
|
||||
|
||||
Why do all these people leave big banks and regulators to go work for hedge fucks and small firms? Because its easier to skim a few hundred million from the public in a smaller firm than it is a massive banks with huge government oversight.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/bpdbl7nt7r171.png?width=624&format=png&auto=webp&s=46545788afb9d8dce2f6a03ae037f8e32a9a1dae)
|
||||
|
||||
Global Systemically Important Banks. Funny because it almost implies they have a carte-blanche to do what ever the fuck they want as long as the appearance is that they are benefiting the public, not loaning in a fractional reserve system to hedgefucks who then just take the money back in and inflate (grossly) the amount on the books. Oh wait... You mean, they only receive what is called "Supervisory Guidance"? What the fuck is that?
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/ylvq9edy7r171.png?width=537&format=png&auto=webp&s=c1dd42410c61be114bfddf8003bb88fb0d3acc43)
|
||||
|
||||
Interesting... So, like, all these rules we are seeing passed, guarantee that we as retarded apes will be protected, right?
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/03falqs08r171.png?width=537&format=png&auto=webp&s=5b060fe66183815e0ad7ce2fe36d029612a434d0)
|
||||
|
||||
Yeahhhh. Of course we are the ones protected. Not the Self. Regulated. Organization. These should be conducted in private so the public doesn't get pissed off when they see how sheeple they really are. So, want to see who really has interest in these the data and numbers staying hidden? Here's a little excerpt from the Chamber of Commerce site about the House Finance Committee Meeting, and for some unknown reason, a regulation we were all hoping would be passed.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/rb58auo88r171.png?width=624&format=png&auto=webp&s=22a680bbbe3ad20287cc23483ac0ef4fbf779516)
|
||||
|
||||
That's odd. Why would the Chamber of Commerce be opposed to the committees recommendation?
|
||||
|
||||
Oh I know, is it because private businesses classified as "small/medium sized enterprises" that might be laundering money off-shore for the mega rich would be exposed to small time investors that could actually get liquidated and pay out 10's of millions of dollars? No never mind that doesn't seem likely.
|
||||
|
||||
I'm at a loss. Because we have this retarded system that would put more money back into the economy if by some crazy chance short interest through banks and hedgefucks had to be covered. And for some reason, the main enterprise representing small businesses, and even provide them with Metlife mutual funds and insurance, doesn't want public small investors to know where the money is. In fact, they *explicitly* state "Global tax authorities already have access to..." Soooo, why has the Fed, SEC, IMF, fuck sakes even the local neighborhood watch at this point, not looked into where the money is flowing? Well they probably have, and don't want to tell us. And why the money printer has to constantly go brrrr for companies that have subsidiaries based in Brazil, Luxembourg, Cayman Islands, etc. Seriously, type a major bank into your search engine with the word subsidiaries next to it. Youll see what I mean (<https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/19617/000119312508043536/dex211.htm>). They know money is flowing out of the country to these master funds, holding companies, etc. And only a handful really are listed through their 13Fs? There's another interesting term I only came across when I started looking at Citadels filings. "Event Driven Master Fund".
|
||||
|
||||
Either $27T is just what is on the books in the US, and the greenback is literally sitting in foreign bank accounts to promote the status quo -- or money is being funneled out of the country faster than the shorts master funds are draining at this point, to allow the 1% (whoever that may be), to do whatever they want with as long as it can be transferred to their own holding company. I too, want to know what's in those funds. I think the public is owed that much considering it's the almighty tax dollar that keeps being printed. No? The global economy is literally at risk because money printer go brrrr.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/9kgeof4sfr171.png?width=585&format=png&auto=webp&s=68c39aff607c28c34c7c716edba1896f9033fe3e)
|
||||
|
||||
Something I really only grasped yesterday, the fact that Reddit most likely had a sueball thrown at it after or before the Jan gamma ramp. Crymer pretty much confirmed that in his CNBC interview when he said we should be classified as a buying group. Basically, we are either protected by freedom to speak our minds on here and speculate. Or we are an entity that wants to invest. A guy shoved a banana up his ass on here the other day. I haven't heard of many wall street investment funds that have people doing that (could just be because they don't want people to know, but whatever, we are just a group of retarded apes). One of two things are happening behind the scenes I believe:
|
||||
|
||||
1. The global elite who have used the banks, hedge funds and US economy as their own personal slush funds for 50+ years are failing to contain short interest to obliterate companies and take back pensions they didn't want to give out in the first place. And they will drag this out as long as they can before they try to blame retail. Or;
|
||||
|
||||
2. BlackRock and Vanguard are actually the 1% taking control over a new generation that has continued to question why we are actually slaving away. I can only speculate with this, as they literally have majority ownership of a TON of fucking companies. Even the banks. ICE, GME, everything.
|
||||
|
||||
Personally, I think it's number 1 now. BlackRock and Vanguard seem to have kind of played the role of balancing the force, and will take over when these guys start to default. Which is why A LOT of funds are holding BLK or iShares. But I am not sure. Ill leave that to you guys to decide. Either we are all fucked no matter what, or this is going to $20M and shit will change for the better. The only thing Ill say is; You Either Die A Hero, Or You Live Long Enough To See Yourself Become The Villain. Going to take a little break from digging for a little bit. The only thing really left is panama papers to cross reference with everyone on these executive boards. We can probably trace some offshore accounts to those people. But again, I don't want to get into that. It isn't the time.
|
||||
|
||||
But what I will say is this, I think A.P.E. Exchange as an open source, free, non-profit exchange would be a good idea. Could probably be coded in a year. Because for one, people we trust are telling us there are just bugs popping up. Go look at the technical docs on the CTA site and tell me they aren't fiercely regulated against coding issues and hacks. The other possibility exists that we could move to GMEs new blockchain, a nice place we are watching be born, with no manipulation. But who knows.
|
||||
|
||||
Anyway, I'll leave it at that. You guys are big boys now too, we can all make decisions on how we should proceed. If we are going to wait for FINRA to do the right thing and potentially stop their data fallacies. Or if ICE needs to be removed from the equation because they have too many hands in all the facets of the data networks. Or if these SROs should maybe have more oversight than just the SEC holding my giant rocket dick, edging me while we haven't even crested $10k yet.
|
||||
|
||||
Personally, I just like the stock, and buying, hodling and voting makes me extremely erect.
|
||||
|
||||
To Ape, Didn't Read the TLDR: GME to $20M or bust, fuck your pennies otherwise.
|
||||
|
||||
See you guys in the comments. Tomorrow probably.
|
||||
|
||||
Oh ya and
|
||||
|
||||
References:
|
||||
|
||||
1. <https://www.ctaplan.com/index>
|
||||
|
||||
2. <https://www.sipc.org/>
|
||||
|
||||
3. <https://www.nyse.com/publicdocs/nyse/markets/nyse/designated_market_makers.pdf>
|
||||
|
||||
4. <https://www.sec.gov/marketstructure/midas-system>
|
||||
|
||||
5. <https://www.federalreserve.gov/supervisionreg/community-and-regional-financial-institutions.htm>
|
||||
|
||||
6. <https://www.federalreserve.gov/publications/2021-april-supervision-and-regulation-report-appendix-a.htm>
|
||||
|
||||
7. <https://www.financialresearch.gov/gsib-scores-chart/>
|
||||
|
||||
8. <https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/312069/000119312512142026/d278890dex81.htm>
|
||||
|
||||
9. <https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/19617/000095012303002985/y83354exv21w1.htm>
|
||||
|
||||
10. <https://www.uschamber.com/letters-congress/us-chamber-letter-markup-the-house-financial-services-committee-2>
|
||||
|
||||
11. <https://www.ctaplan.com/tech-specs>
|
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Reference in New Issue
Block a user