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66
00-Getting-Started/2021-05-27-GME-Explained-for-New-Apes.md
Normal file
66
00-Getting-Started/2021-05-27-GME-Explained-for-New-Apes.md
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@ -0,0 +1,66 @@
|
||||
GME explained for new apes
|
||||
==========================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/lawrgood](https://www.reddit.com/user/lawrgood/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/comments/nm40vh/gme_explained_for_new_apes/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
[🔬 DD 📊](https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/search?q=flair_name%3A%22%F0%9F%94%AC%20DD%20%F0%9F%93%8A%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||
If you are new to the sub or have been struggling to wrap your head around the DD (due diligence), hopefully this can make things clearer.
|
||||
|
||||
Why is GME's price changing?
|
||||
|
||||
Short hedge funds (SHF) sold shares that they didn't own because they thought GME would go bankrupt.
|
||||
|
||||
Think of it like an airline. There's only so many seats on the flight. The hedgies thought the flight was going to be cancelled so they printed some fake tickets and sold those too. Then the flight didn't get cancelled. Now, because there are only so many seats available, they need to stand at the gate and buy back the extra tickets, then rip them up so no-one tries to use them. It doesn't matter if that ticket was a real one or the fake one. They need to buy it and destroy it until only the original number remains.
|
||||
|
||||
The problem is, everyone is really excited for the trip, so no-one wants to sell. So the price of the tickets is too high for the hedgies. Short term, they are printing even more tickets to give them cash to deal with the people at the front of the queue, but all that does is make the line longer. And there is still only the original number of seats on the plane.
|
||||
|
||||
How can they sell shares that they don't own?
|
||||
|
||||
If SHF think a stock will go down in price, they are allowed to locate and borrow shares from other people, sell them and try to buy them back later. To keep the metaphor going, they can give you a few bucks to hold your ticket and promise to sell it to me at today's price. Then if the price goes down they can buy it from you at the cheaper price to deliver to me.
|
||||
|
||||
What we think has happened is, they didn't just borrow your ticket, they photocopied it and lent it to someone else at the same time as they sold it to me. As in, they lent out the shares they had borrowed. Because they have a few days to sort that out before anyone notices, they usually get away with it. Normally people buy and sell all the time so it gets lost in the noise.
|
||||
|
||||
Isn't relending shares you've borrowed illegal?
|
||||
|
||||
Yes. You aren't allowed to sell shares that don't exist. If you see the term "naked short selling" this is what they mean. There may be some misreporting going on to cover up the fact but punishments are relatively lean historically such as a proportionally small fine. There's been a lot of regulation changes in a short period of time which may be gearing up to deal with that.
|
||||
|
||||
What's with the massive price spikes every so often?
|
||||
|
||||
This is probably cyclical. If you see T+21 or T+35 mentioned this is referring to the time after a trade that they have to find that share they promised to give you. Market Makers get a little longer than your standard HF. Because shares are so hard to find, it could be that SHF have to keep kicking the can down the road. In our airline metaphor, this is them printing extra tickets. T+21 and T+35 would be the day that people are arriving to collect their tickets so the SHF needs to order more from the printers. The last week of May was when these two dates overlapped so lots of pressure to find shares to deliver.
|
||||
|
||||
If the price keeps going up, who will pay?
|
||||
|
||||
First the SHF has to buy back what they can from the market. If they run out of cash, the clearing house auction off all their stuff and buy back with that. If that's not enough, the clearing house is on the hook because they rubber stamped the trades. They can use the cash they have but, if they run out, they can ask for cash from their members.
|
||||
|
||||
If that isn't enough, the DTCC is on the hook for failing to keep the records straight. If they run out of cash, it's down to the government for not intervening in the fraud soon enough. When it gets to this point, trillions will have been spent buying back shares.
|
||||
|
||||
How long can they keep this going?
|
||||
|
||||
No-one knows for sure. It seems that SHF are running low on money already. There have been massive sell offs across all their other holdings. This is why, when the market tanks, it's usually at the same time GME is doing well.
|
||||
|
||||
There have been lots of rule changes too. The clearing houses are asking for more collateral (the money or assets that needs to be put up as assurance in order to keep or establish these short positions). They can also ask for reports more often and can force members to close their positions sooner.
|
||||
|
||||
How do we know the SHF haven't bought back enough shares?
|
||||
|
||||
There may be some misreporting going on. SHF's may be mislabeling short positions as long, not reporting them at all, or putting out press releases of how they have covered their positions. The fines for doing so are relatively minor, and if it means the difference between going bankrupt or getting another day to dig themselves out of a hole, there's a lot of incentive to cheat.
|
||||
|
||||
There's been a large increase in whistleblower awards handed out by the SEC this year for information that leads to a penalty.
|
||||
|
||||
The push to vote will shine a light on this. There is a shareholder meeting on June 9th and many have already voted. The vote count will give an insight into how many fake shares have been sold. Even this number will be lower than the true number. Remember that not all holders can/will vote.
|
||||
|
||||
There are also other indicators that shares are hard to get hold of. Volumes traded each day have been declining meaning fewer shares are flying back and forth between traders. Shares have been harder to borrow than they were before.
|
||||
|
||||
What's the company like?
|
||||
|
||||
GME have had some great news lately. The incoming chairman is an e-commerce legend (Ryan Cohen) who is putting together a team to take the company into the future. He's already built a successful e-com company (Chewy) and is very customer focused with an eye for quality.
|
||||
|
||||
The latest news is that they are developing an NFT to be built using Ethereum. This will allow for digital games to be traded in and resold. An NFT is an encrypted record of who owns a specific digital asset. When you buy a game download, a corresponding digital coin would be minted that says it belongs to you. If you want to sell it on, you could transfer ownership of that coin just like you do with bitcoin or Ethereum now.
|
||||
|
||||
They also have no debt and $500+ million dollars in the bank.
|
||||
|
||||
None of this is investment advice. Do not take advice from internet strangers. I am in no way qualified to give it. If you think I've got any part wrong, call me out in the comments. If you think I need to add something, ask. If you have more questions, I will try to answer but, I repeat, I know almost nothing.
|
@ -0,0 +1,64 @@
|
||||
Anatomy of parabolic moves and how GME is heading to 1000$ a share.
|
||||
===================================================================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/eoneqeip](https://www.reddit.com/user/eoneqeip/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/oaqqry/anatomy_of_parabolic_moves_and_how_gme_is_heading/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
[Education 👨🏫 | Data 🔢](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22Education%20%F0%9F%91%A8%E2%80%8D%F0%9F%8F%AB%20%7C%20Data%20%F0%9F%94%A2%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||
Good day apes ~~and apettes~~ (thanks [u/kibblepigeon](https://www.reddit.com/u/kibblepigeon/) for teaching me that "ape" is already a gender inclusive term), just wanted to jacque your tettitas a lil more if I can.
|
||||
|
||||
Here's the dissection of a parabolic move on an x security, movement to 1 is parabolic but is also a little parabolic move inside a bigger parabolic move (5). What is interesting is price behaviour: after first big move up (1), usually there's a circa 50% retracement of that move (2) then sellers come back until price close above 2 (3), then at (4) the last small dip before (5) meaning the sellers capitulated.
|
||||
|
||||
Small dip move from (3) to (4) is KEY because here happens the shift of power from sellers, which were in control of price since (1) finished, to buyers.
|
||||
|
||||
Move (5) as now went to about 3X the price of move (1).
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/95jyxija8c871.jpg?width=1035&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=870ec16616f570db7a4b9868e549539569919d3c)
|
||||
|
||||
a common graph of a common parabolic move
|
||||
|
||||
Now let's get straight to the jacque part of my kindergarten analysis
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/snfq6cue8c871.jpg?width=1035&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=12b0f550b2f3d169e548710ea24135c74ad4719a)
|
||||
|
||||
a graph of a well known idiosyncratic stock
|
||||
|
||||
To me the situation seem pretty darn parabolic and I see the same behaviour described above...
|
||||
|
||||
Only differences are related to time scales (first case was weekly, second was daily) and move 1 retracement (2) which in 1st case was 50% while on GME is >50% (meaning buying was more aggressive in this case).
|
||||
|
||||
I don't want to hype dates or anything but I think we are in (4) now, that small but very important dip where power shift happens and up up up the parabolic flight begins.
|
||||
|
||||
So buckle up and enjoy the flight.
|
||||
|
||||
EDIT1: more evidence of this pattern in a fairly known movie theaters stock which recently exihibited a parabolic move (here as well as now price in (5) has tripled maximum price of move (1)).
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/nxqb21ej8c871.jpg?width=1034&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=6d59e58c01981a10312b3c3361ad1724241a5220)
|
||||
|
||||
EDIT2: another one, this is interesting because move (5) almost 3X move (1) but had a more bumpy development (lower timeframe here with more noise maybe?)
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/8w3i4a5m8c871.jpg?width=1037&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=215999c3c075d3417c64dba5ab72e06906c964cf)
|
||||
|
||||
EDIT3: another one in which move (5) max price triples parabolic move (1) max price.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/dnw5eg2p8c871.jpg?width=1039&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=d311db539deca12a117e584c0ea8d766bd649385)
|
||||
|
||||
EDIT4: a famous e-commerce giant which GME is going to replace, here move 5 did 33X the max price of move 1 (obviously fundamentals here helped)
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/hcp8j0ur8c871.jpg?width=1040&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=fe3b05a176aeedff20023e0a3d93b3dcf8e7b377)
|
||||
|
||||
EDIT5: another big weekly case on a big tech, from max price of 1 (37$) to price to date in 5 (799$) it 23X. Notice how sometimes these parabolic moves requires years (move 5 started in the end of 2012).
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/sr4lt1su8c871.jpg?width=1037&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=a1edf81b6795e1d8b4ec5248f294fffe3f31c667)
|
||||
|
||||
Based on these examples I think we are set on GME for a move 5 which will at least triple the max price of move 1 of january (345x3=1035$), notice I'm using the price of line graph and not candlestick price of january pick (482,55$), this doesn't mean GME won't go past 1000$, we saw before that with strong fundamentals and time move 5 can easily go 20X and beyond move 1.
|
||||
|
||||
I don't know about other securities but GME is a unique case for short interest and for retail interest in it so it is very possible that it will set an unprecendent, idiosynchratic, to the moon move 5.
|
||||
|
||||
Prepare to see your most liked stock at least at 1000$, I'm preparing for this and zenfully reminding myself that at 1k we still trading sideways. I just want you to be prepared as well for what is coming (I predict future fud at 1k stating HF have covered and so on...(yeah like they covered in january! - we own the float x times bitch! - when in doubt bath yourself with the DDs)).
|
||||
|
||||
Buckle up.
|
@ -0,0 +1,9 @@
|
||||
# I Am Not a Financial Advisor PDF
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [@iamnotafinadv](https://www.twitter.com/iamnotafinadv) | [Source](https://iamnotafinancialadvisor.com/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
[GMEv14.zip](https://github.com/verymeticulous/wikAPEdia/files/6764891/GMEv14.zip)
|
@ -0,0 +1,33 @@
|
||||
House of Cards Part 2 & 3 AUDIO
|
||||
===============================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/GoryAmos](https://www.reddit.com/user/GoryAmos/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nlzhrr/house_of_cards_part_2_3_audio/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
[Discussion 🦍](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22Discussion%20%F0%9F%A6%8D%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
I'm one of those apes who needs to listen to the words while they read the words so I am making recordings of [u/atobitt](https://www.reddit.com/u/atobitt/)'s newest additions to the House of Cards trilogy. I figure I'm not the only ape who needs to hear stuff for it to make sense, so I'm sharing my recordings here. Please forgive any flubs and corrections of flubs - I'm reading it all in my head for the first time as I'm reading it all out loud.
|
||||
|
||||
The mp3 for Part 2 is...
|
||||
|
||||
The mp3 for Part 3 will be posted first thing in the AM, probably during pre-market. I'll update this post with the link when it's done.
|
||||
|
||||
UPDATE: omg APES BROKE DROPBOX. I had no idea this would be this popular. My account's been suspended lol. I'm adding a feed to my libsyn podcast account and posting the links through that. Stay tuned, replacement link will be posted shortly
|
||||
|
||||
DOUBLE UPDATE: This is now officially a podcast. Takes some time for it to show up on all the podcast apps, but in the meantime you can listen directly on libsyn here: [https://superstonkddaudio.libsyn.com](https://superstonkddaudio.libsyn.com/)
|
||||
|
||||
I'll update again once Part 3 and Part 1 are done.
|
||||
|
||||
THRUPDATE (that's a portmanteau i just coined for "third update"): Part 3 is LIVE: <https://superstonkddaudio.libsyn.com/house-of-cards-pt-3-by-uatobitt>
|
||||
|
||||
The podcast name is SUPERSTONKDDAUDIO bc i'm an Ape and I forgot to use spaces.
|
||||
|
||||
Spotify and Apple Podcast feeds are being worked on. Spotify should be live later tonight but Apple usually takes about a week to process a new podcast.
|
||||
|
||||
I was so nervous to post the first recording last night - would Apes laugh? would Apes make fun? But I was nervous for naught! Apes support! Apes rejoice!
|
||||
|
||||
So grateful for this community!
|
||||
|
||||
I LOVE THIS STONK.
|
@ -0,0 +1,238 @@
|
||||
The MOASS Preparation Guide 2.0
|
||||
===============================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/socrates6210](https://www.reddit.com/user/socrates6210/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/oakqvt/the_moass_preparation_guide_20/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
[DD 👨🔬](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22DD%20%F0%9F%91%A8%E2%80%8D%F0%9F%94%AC%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||
*******************************************************
|
||||
|
||||
*I'm just gonna start off by saying that this is a sequel to* [*The MOASS Preparation Guide*](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/mm5qle/the_moass_preparation_guide/)*, a post I wrote a few months ago. I felt it deserved an updated version considering so much that has happened recently, also i've learned a lot since then. This guide will be pretty in depth but don't worry, my view is that when you're explaining something, always imagine you're talking to a 5 year old (ELI5). So make yourself a cup of coffee, and grab a tasty crayola and enjoy.*
|
||||
|
||||
*The subsequent sections are as follows:*
|
||||
|
||||
- *Pre-liftoff preparation*
|
||||
|
||||
- *D-Day*
|
||||
|
||||
- *During the MOASS*
|
||||
|
||||
- *Immediate Aftermath*
|
||||
|
||||
- *Long term aftermath*
|
||||
|
||||
*******************************************************
|
||||
|
||||
Please read though this as i believe it is important that we all have an understanding on the game plan 🚀
|
||||
|
||||
Pre-liftoff Preparation
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/pskg3gxrka871.jpg?width=1280&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=09b3bccc95d16594bc2a8cf9e5307e08eaf11058)
|
||||
|
||||
- Brokers preparation - I think everyone should take the time to understand the nuances and rules that the broker applies on trading. Some brokers may have some sneaky fine prints. So you should make sure that nothing can get in the way of you and your tendies.
|
||||
|
||||
- Take note of the brokers that previous placed trade restrictions [here](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/mowzjk/the_broker_preparation_guide/).
|
||||
|
||||
- some brokers (Trading212 for example) have decided to restrict buying if you do not agree to their share lending program (*Do* *NOT* *agree to this.*)
|
||||
|
||||
- If you have all your shares in one of these bad brokers and can't transfer, don't sweat it too much. JUST DO NOT SELL YOUR SHARES. The message was clear as crystal in January: if they prevent free trade like Robinhood did then that means they will lose customers and face litigation, so i *hope* for their sake that they have prepared for this.
|
||||
|
||||
- It also wouldn't hurt to email your brokers customer service and ask them "*will you prevent me from selling if the price goes to X amount?*". Additionally, i would recommend keeping documentation, screenshots and recordings of your positions just incase f*ckery arises. It's good to create a paper trail just incase you need to bring them to court.
|
||||
|
||||
- Back up broker - If you can, open up an account as soon as possible on a reputable broker and buy at least 1 share. Don't aim to maximize gains but to minimize the regret of missing out just in case your broker decides to f*ck you. The rule of thumb is usually that commission based boomer brokers with horrible user interfaces are the most trustworthy. See the "good brokers" in the link above.
|
||||
|
||||
- Diversify Brokers - if you can, spread out your holdings across multiple brokers. Also take note of what clearing house they use. You don't want to be caught up in some f*ckery where both brokers wont let you sell because they share the same clearing house. A solution to this could be to transfer shares. Some brokers allow you to transfer shares to others, but small "shit" brokers like eToro for example, do not. If thats the case then hold tight and buy on a different broker, if you wanna buy more shares.
|
||||
|
||||
- Here is a [list of some brokerages](https://investorjunkie.com/stock-brokers/broker-clearing-firms/) and the respective clearing houses they use.
|
||||
|
||||
- Here is a list of [brokers who placed restrictions](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/mowzjk/the_broker_preparation_guide/) in a follow up post i made.
|
||||
|
||||
- Trading212 for example: they're becoming Robinhood 2.0 now as they decided [to place buy restrictions](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/oa7nq4/fud_alert_t212_simply_do_not_agree_to_terms_hold/) if you don't agree to their share lending program. Admittedly, I am a Trading212 customer. So this is why you should diversify brokers, you never know when they are going to pull some shady shit.
|
||||
|
||||
- *side-note*: I would stay away from brokers that use Apex Clearing, they're shady as shit.
|
||||
|
||||
- Order Routing - Order routing is when an order to buy or sell a stock is sent from your broker to an exchange. There are two kinds of exchanges: *Lit pools and Dark pools.*
|
||||
|
||||
- Dark pools do not display prices at which participants are willing to trade (ie; in the dark), whereas lit pools do show these various bids and offers in a stocks. It's been said that the naked shorting gang pay millions to brokers to have millions of orders routed through their own dark pools, to which they can perform shady business (skimming cents off the spread of every order, suppressing buying pressure etc).
|
||||
|
||||
- This brings me to my point: If you are thinking about buying some shares, you should route it through IEX, which is an exchange that was made in order to mitigate the affects of high frequency trading. [Oh hey, look! Our friends at Citadel don't like IEX](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/oa7st6/citadel_really_doesnt_like_iex_if_you_have_the/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3).
|
||||
|
||||
- Cash account, not margin - if you haven't already, request your broker to change your account from a margin account to a cash account. This way your shares are entirely your own and aren't being lent out to short sellers. Note that you need to have no options or short positions active with your account before you do this. If you are reluctant to switching your account then make sure that you have no withstanding deficits in your account so you don't get margin called and your broker automatically closes positions without your consent. Yes, this has happened to people before.
|
||||
|
||||
- Online Security - If you have learned anything from all this it's that you should not trust anyone. Take the time to enable two-factor authentication on your bank/broker accounts. Also you should have a different password for each account, preferably 20+ characters with a mixture of alphanumeric characters and symbols.
|
||||
|
||||
- Do not use public wifi to log into your broker account.
|
||||
|
||||
- Use a VPN when possible.
|
||||
|
||||
- Taxes - It is crucial that you learn about your countries [capital gains taxes](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/capital_gains_tax.asp). I would go deeper into this, However different tax rates apply in different countries depending on how long you are holding the stock. To keep this general for all users i will say Just google "*what are the tax laws for stocks in <my country>?*". (If you're a smooth brain, dont worry. I have the solution for you in immediate aftermath section)
|
||||
|
||||
- Prepare a personal balance sheet - It may be a good idea to prepare a balance sheet. A balance sheet is a snapshot of net worth and lists all your assets, liabilities, cash etc. This will make your life (*and your accountants life*) easier when you need an accountant. If you need a better understanding of balance sheets see this [video here](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hhKO6MRvk_c).
|
||||
|
||||
- Mental preparation - This one isn't so obvious, but please prepare yourself for seeing life changing money in your possession. Have a long think what you are going to do with this money. And as a side note: try to not tell too people you're invested, the less people know the easier your life will be.
|
||||
|
||||
D-Day
|
||||
|
||||
0:04
|
||||
|
||||
0:08
|
||||
|
||||
- Take care of your health - Firstly, on the day of lift off you will definitely feel overwhelmed with emotions and anxiety. You're probably going to feel a little dizzy seeing the price increase exponentially. Please sit down when you are checking the price. The last thing i want to hear is that a fellow ape fainted and cracked their head because of being overwhelmed with emotions. In my opinion, deep slow [diaphragmatic breathing](https://my.clevelandclinic.org/health/articles/9445-diaphragmatic-breathing) really helps to slow down your heart rate and reduce anxiety.
|
||||
|
||||
- Expect Trading Halts - There is a difference between trading suspension and trading halt. Securities exchanges have the power to temporarily [halt](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/t/tradinghalt.asp), in the middle of the trading day, or delay, at the beginning of the trading day, trading on a stock. halts and delays usually last less than one hour. As opposed to suspensions, which can last two weeks. Suspensions are enforced by the SEC
|
||||
|
||||
- In the case of trading halt: The NYSE may stop trading if the price rises too quickly. This is usually done to prevent massive impulse waves and let people calm down for a few minutes. But this is futile in the setting of a short squeeze, because all shorts must cover regardless. You can also check when GME is halted [here](https://www.nyse.com/trade-halt-current). Do not freak out if the graph flatlines.
|
||||
|
||||
- In the case of trading suspension: I believe that if the infinity pool happens, meaning shorts literally will not be able to cover the potentially billions of synthetic shares they have created, driving the price to literally infinity, that the SEC most likely implement a trading suspension. We won't know unless it happens. But, who knows? They might not. You can read about trading suspensions [here](https://www.sec.gov/oiea/investor-alerts-and-bulletins/ib_tradingsuspensions).
|
||||
|
||||
- BOTS, BOTS EVERYWHERE - This could go two ways: either the shorts don't have anymore money to pay shills or we will have a massive influx of bots/shills on here and <*other stonk subs*> trying to nudge people to sell. They will say something like "wow i sold my 3 shares for 30K" and try to create a narrative that below 100K is the peak. 100K is not the peak. don't listen to it. we set the price.
|
||||
|
||||
- Reddit might be down - during the rally from $40 to $90 in February Reddit inexplicably went offline. It happened a couple of other times before when the price rose considerably. This could be due to a DDOS attack or just too much traffic to the site. Either way, if Reddit does go down don't worry. We are all still here.
|
||||
|
||||
- The only call to action would be to go to the [SuperStonk youtube](https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCI4EET9NJPWxUuXGlG6fxPA) channel, which the mods said they will do an emergency broadcast when things kick off. So go there for communication.
|
||||
|
||||
- Backup places to check out would be the mods twitter pages
|
||||
|
||||
- <https://twitter.com/rensole>
|
||||
|
||||
- <https://twitter.com/RedChessQueen99>
|
||||
|
||||
- <https://twitter.com/PinkCatsOnAcid>
|
||||
|
||||
During the MOASS
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/54mzc28uka871.png?width=1890&format=png&auto=webp&s=e6554f4f0e276f93d84d22c6cd766167638bd9c1)
|
||||
|
||||
- Diamond hands - This one i cannot stress enough, the mantra is clear: HOLD! If you sell early you creating downward pressure against the MOASS. If the short position is in the billions of shares (which has been theorized) then this shouldn't be too much of a problem, but regardless - KEEP THOSE HANDS DIAMOND! The squeeze could last a few days, week or indefinitely. At this point no one knows. Don't feel pressure to sell when it goes $100K+, if the DD is correct (and it has been so far) then we are not stopping add measly hundreds of thousands.
|
||||
|
||||
- A forced buy-back differs from a Margin call, in which a margin call is just a notice to "*increase the amount of money in your account before we close your positions, because you won't be able pay us if this goes any higher*"
|
||||
|
||||
- Prime brokers will implement forced buy-back of hedge funds to cover their short positions. This means they will go the open market and buy them for what ever someone is will to sell them for.
|
||||
|
||||
- The stock price = the last price it sold for. If the only sells available were asking for 1 million, then that means the price will be 1 million. And since it's likely there aren't enough shares in existence to cover the amount of shorting that went on then theoretically this ape filled rocket could blast through the moon and land on Alpha centauri B.
|
||||
|
||||
- Whats an exit strategy? - This one isn't so obvious because the we don't know what the peak will be, but you should have an exit strategy: Plan out what you need on the day of selling, where do you need to be? think about that day and visualize it so you aren't overwhelmed with anxiety when it actually happens. As for selling: all i can say on this matter is do not sell on the way up as it's a bad idea. ([~~explained here that you should~~](https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/comments/m073v6/exit_strategy_dd_a_comprehensive_guide_to/)) Use [this exit strategy](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nogxnr/infinity_war_the_final_exit_dd_compilation/) instead by [u/gherkinit](https://www.reddit.com/u/gherkinit/):
|
||||
|
||||
- Understand the different types of orders - Limit Order, Market Order, Stop Limit Order and Stop Loss Order, explanations on the pro's and cons of each can also be found [here](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nogxnr/infinity_war_the_final_exit_dd_compilation/)
|
||||
|
||||
- Some people have noted that certain brokers have limits on the amount you can place an order for online (in terms of dollar value). Just to be safe make sure you have phone credit and the number for your broker ready to contact them to execute an order if this applies to you.
|
||||
|
||||
- Also, some brokers may not even limit orders (Revolut as far as i know). Don't sweat it, this is beyond your control. Just sell on the way down, or don't. I don't care this is not financial advice.
|
||||
|
||||
- Sit down when you decide to take gains - When the dust has settled and you decide to take gains, again, sit down and drink some water and breath.. because you may faint or possibly get sick from seeing that you have sold a single share for an ungodly amount.
|
||||
|
||||
- Don't publish your realised gains publicly - Obvious one, don't be that person who flaunts the gains online. You are going to cause a lot of fair-weather friends and family to crawl out of the woodwork trying to get their hands on your tendies. It may be tempting to rub it in the faces of the people who doubted you, but just don't. It's not worth it.
|
||||
|
||||
- T+2 settlement - When you sell a share, it actually doesn't get settled until 2 days after it's executed, meaning you don't actually have the money in your brokerage until 2 days later. Learn about the [settlement violations here](https://www.fidelity.com/learning-center/trading-investing/trading/avoiding-cash-trading-violations) before you start going off buying other stocks with your gains. This T+2 settlement also gives the SEC the power to reverse any transactions they seem fit due to violations. Not meant to be FUD, i just thought its useful to know. I doubt they will start reversing transactions during the MOASS, but if it does occur. Hold tight, again: we set the price.
|
||||
|
||||
- WHAT DO WITH MONEY? - It should be known that your regular current/checking account is only insured up to $250,000 if you're in the [US under the FDIC](https://www.fdic.gov/deposit/deposits/faq.html) and €100,000 if you are [in the European Union](https://ec.europa.eu/info/business-economy-euro/banking-and-finance/financial-supervision-and-risk-management/managing-risks-banks-and-financial-institutions/deposit-guarantee-schemes_en). So its not advised to dump all your money into your bank account straight away. I would wait for T+2 settlement to clear then invest in value stocks, so you're money isn't tied to your broker, should they have issues. This brings me to the next section...
|
||||
|
||||
Immediate Aftermath
|
||||
|
||||
0:00
|
||||
|
||||
0:02
|
||||
|
||||
- Assemble a team of legal and financial advisers:
|
||||
|
||||
- Lawyer up - Hire a [tax attorney](https://www.moneycrashers.com/when-to-hire-a-tax-attorney/) to deal with any problems that may arise from all of this. Hire a family law or estate planning attorney that can arrange a Will for your family immediately.
|
||||
|
||||
- side note: do NOT sign anything, from your broker/bank/crayon dealer or anyone if you do not understand it. Make sure you have an attorney read anything you may or may not be asked to sign.
|
||||
|
||||
- Get an accountant - Get certified public accountant who helps wealthy families organize their finances and guide you through your finances.
|
||||
|
||||
- Hire a financial advisor - Make sure you hire a financial advisor that is sworn to act as a fiduciary (*acting in your best financial interests, not theirs*), preferably with experience managing significant wealth. Make sure you check their certifications and that they aren't trying to push you to buy some insurance policy. The requirements to be a FA aren't concrete so there are a lot of snake oil salesmen that really don't have your best interests at heart. Make sure how you ask how they profit from you being their client and make sure they aren't trying to make commissions. Also, look out for high fees. Minimum advisor fees based on AUM should not be over 1% unless they can justify it with amazing historical returns.
|
||||
|
||||
- Expect to vilified by MSM - In the case of a financial crisis, i can nearly guarantee that they will try to blame us rather than the hedgies and regulators who caused it. Pay no mind to mainstream media and stand your ground.
|
||||
|
||||
- Expect people to say you just got lucky, expect them to speak as though we are ones who caused this. They will lie, twist and corrupt the truth. Expect your friend who paper-handed a few months back and still think's GameStop is dying brick-and-mortar resent you. You don't need to justify yourself. All of our research has been documented, archived and literally shouted from the rooftops for months. As Michael brrry would say "*I warned, but no one listened*".
|
||||
|
||||
- They may also try and backtrack to a pro-GME narrative now that it's not financial in their interest to side with SHFs. Just remember: MSM is not your friend, these people are allows pushing the narrative that they are paid push. It's literally their business model.
|
||||
|
||||
- Do nothing with the money - this kind of piggy backs off the first point about assembling a team of advisors, but please don't just cash out and go crazy with the money. Sit and think about it for some time. Let reality settle in and decide how are you going to use this money to help yourself and the people around you. Lambos are great but they won't bring you happiness forever. Don't blow that money down the drain. Educate yourself on how wealthy people maintain their wealth.
|
||||
|
||||
Longer Term aftermath
|
||||
|
||||
- Expect turbulence in the economy - this wont be just contained to the world of GME. This is going to have a ripple affect across the world economy as the powers-that-be, who have been taking advantage of the system loops holes, finally pay their debt. Here is some essentials you should check out (in order) if you haven't already, this is 2008 ~~all over again~~ continued:
|
||||
|
||||
1. [Inside Job (Full movie)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T2IaJwkqgPk) - by [Charles Ferguson](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Charles_Ferguson_(filmmaker))
|
||||
|
||||
2. [The Bigger Short. How 2008 is repeating](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/o0scoy/the_bigger_short_how_2008_is_repeating_at_a_much/) - by [u/Criand](https://www.reddit.com/u/Criand/)
|
||||
|
||||
3. [A House of Cards](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nm83eb/a_house_of_cards_parts_i_ii_iii_in_pdf/) - by [u/atobitt](https://www.reddit.com/u/atobitt/)
|
||||
|
||||
4. [The EVERYTHING Short](https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/comments/mgucv2/the_everything_short/) - by [u/atobitt](https://www.reddit.com/u/atobitt/)
|
||||
|
||||
High/hyper Inflation - We need to talk about [inflation](https://www.fdic.gov/deposit/deposits/faq.html). In v1.0 of this guide I mentioned a possibility of inflation, but as more news has come out it's pretty much a guarantee. Also, I didn't give much recommendations on what to do about it. So, i learned a bit about inflation so you don't have to:
|
||||
|
||||
- The What?
|
||||
|
||||
- Since governments have moved away from the gold standard, countries have the power to create money out of thin air through [quantitative easing](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/q/quantitative-easing.asp).
|
||||
|
||||
- Inflation is the annual percentage rise in the cost of living. Okay so what does that really mean? Here is smooth brain explanation: If you have $1 in 2020, and inflation rises 10% in 2021, you still have your $1 but you only have the buying power of $0.90 relative to last year. This is why holding onto cash is not good in a high inflationary economy.
|
||||
|
||||
- The How?
|
||||
|
||||
- Everyone always says its from over-printing of money, but in reality this is just a symptom of a failing economy, and a byproduct of the citizens lack of confidence in the currency.
|
||||
|
||||
- In order to counter these rise in prices, the FED (or central bank) will raise interest rates, essentially reducing the amount of money in circulation.
|
||||
|
||||
- The chair of the Fed, JPOW himself, said interest rates won't be [raised until 2023](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/16/fed-holds-rates-steady-but-raises-inflation-expectations-sharply-and-makes-no-mention-of-taper.html). However, fear is arising in the stock market as many speculate we have high inflation because the massive amount of "free money" initiatives to help the country get back on its feet, but it's just not being seen due to COVID-19.
|
||||
|
||||
- I think it is also noteworthy to say there is a difference between high inflation and hyperinflation. Hyperinflation is a term to describe rapid, excessive, and out-of-control general price increases in an economy. While inflation is a measure of the pace of rising prices for goods and services, hyperinflation is rapidly rising inflation, typically measuring more than 50% per month.
|
||||
|
||||
- How to protect yourself?
|
||||
|
||||
- Well firstly I'd like to note assets to avoid during high inflation:
|
||||
|
||||
- [Fixed rate bonds](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/f/fixedrate-bond.asp)
|
||||
|
||||
- [Growth stocks](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/g/growthstock.asp)
|
||||
|
||||
- [Cash](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/cash.asp) (yes, that includes the money in your savings account)
|
||||
|
||||
- The best investments during high inflation:
|
||||
|
||||
- [Real estate/land](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/r/realestate.asp)
|
||||
|
||||
- [Commodities](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/commodity.asp) (Gold, oil etc.)
|
||||
|
||||
- [Boomer Value Stocks](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/v/valuestock.asp)
|
||||
|
||||
- How about crypt-0?
|
||||
|
||||
- I can't name certain coins here because of auto-mod, but you know of the big ones I'm talking about.
|
||||
|
||||
- It is assumed that anything with a limited supply will inevitably move with inflation. the loss in confidence people have in fiat currency is prevented with crypt-0-currency as it has an immutable finite supply.
|
||||
|
||||
- However, you also need to bear in mind the *utility* of the asset. Just because something has a limited supply does not mean it's valuable (*The 2021 shit-coin craze being evidence of this*)
|
||||
|
||||
- In a financial nuclear winter event, it may a case that some coins may become too expensive to mine due to rise in electricity prices, leading to a disinterest/disincentivization in holding the asset and thus reducing it's value.
|
||||
|
||||
- Be careful if you decide to hedge with these assets as they are yet to be stress-tested during a financial crisis, some might succeed and many will fail.
|
||||
|
||||
- side-note: One silver lining i learned about inflation is that the burden of any debt you may have will be softened as the nominal value of the debt stays the same even as the value of the currency decreases. What does this mean? if you owe money, lets say a mortgage or student loan, it is easier to pay of that debt as it is assumed you wages will increase, while the number of dollars you owe stays the same. (*not that you will have a job after the MOASS anyway ( ͡° ͜ʖ ͡°)* )
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/4xpmi7xxka871.jpg?width=1908&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=1b1e4adfcd66be4d4003cbee35d6d0796c96badf)
|
||||
|
||||
Taken during the 2011 Ocupy Wallstreet March (At National i
|
||||
|
||||
*If there is anything else you think should be in here let me know in the comments. This is just my opinion and not financial advice. I am just an ape who eats crayons for fun. This will probably be my last DD before valhalla (financially speaking), I'll finish by leaving you with this image (above ^). Remember what happened in 2008 and don't show any mercy. HOLD.*
|
||||
|
||||
- Socrates ( ͡° ͜ʖ ͡°)
|
||||
|
||||
🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀
|
||||
|
||||
TLDR: no tldr you lazy ape, go read it. Its important
|
||||
|
||||
_____________________________________________
|
||||
|
||||
- edits 1: Diamond hands section typo : "***aren't* *enough shares", not "are enough shares"*
|
||||
|
||||
*- edits 2: removed WardenElites exit strategy, added the gherkinit's exit strategy*
|
||||
|
||||
*- edits 3: added mods twitters in Reddit going down section*
|
@ -0,0 +1,232 @@
|
||||
The Sun Never Sets On Citadel -- Part 1
|
||||
=======================================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/swede_child_of_mine](https://www.reddit.com/user/swede_child_of_mine/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/o2xz48/the_sun_never_sets_on_citadel_part_1/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
[DD 👨🔬](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22DD%20%F0%9F%91%A8%E2%80%8D%F0%9F%94%AC%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||
[Hello Superstonk](https://i.redd.it/y39nj0kvo2671.gif)
|
||||
|
||||
Preface
|
||||
|
||||
I became bothered by a question a few months ago. The GME saga started with MAJOR fight in the financial landscape between Team Citadel vs. Team Other (Blackrock, Vanguard, etc.), and Superstonk is here now because of Team Other getting Ryan Cohen on the board at GME, then "retail" landed on the scene, now Apes, etc. But this ONE question always bothered me:
|
||||
|
||||
> What did Citadel do to piss everyone off? WHY would they want to give Citadel the most epic beat down in financial history?
|
||||
|
||||
So I spent some time looking into that because it *must* be good and...
|
||||
|
||||
*HO BOY, GET YOUR POPCORN, I'VE GOT SOME GOODS TO SHARE WITH YOU AND IT'S GONNA BE JUICY*
|
||||
|
||||
* * * * *
|
||||
|
||||
Note: this is a strategy post. [u/atobitt](https://www.reddit.com/u/atobitt/) and [u/criand](https://www.reddit.com/u/criand/) focus on macro topics about Citadel's structure in the overall market, but this series is going to be about financial industry strategy. I have a master's degree in business and specialize in strategy and operations. While I don't have direct experience in finance per se, I really enjoy finding the "hows" and "whys" behind what businesses do.
|
||||
|
||||
Also, I'll give shout outs to the Apes who did relevant DD before this. Parts of this are my own discovery, parts are building on the work of those who came before :) This is an overall picture.
|
||||
|
||||
Symbol indicators:
|
||||
|
||||
- [] - request for link to relevant DD ([r/Superstonk](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/) DD posts or legitimate sources)
|
||||
|
||||
* * * * *
|
||||
|
||||
1.0: Introduction
|
||||
|
||||
The Price of $GME is artificial. Prior posts ([1](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/mn0q9q/theory_all_the_pieces_pt_1_the_anatomy_of_the/), [2](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/ms9z0n/theory_all_the_pieces_pt_2_the_deep_end_of_the/)) have covered how Citadel and other players in the market have greedily, illegally conspired to change the price of stocks for their own profit. While Citadel's criminal price manipulation of GME represents a failed scheme to fabricate shares for profit, this was only a small corner of a much larger body of activity. *Citadel's overall activity shows a plan to monopolize markets worldwide and control securities transactions at the exchange level*.
|
||||
|
||||
Yep.
|
||||
|
||||
Buckle up :)
|
||||
|
||||
* * * * *
|
||||
|
||||
Key Term
|
||||
|
||||
Market Maker (or "MM") -- a special role in a stock exchanges around the world. An MM's primary role is to provide liquidity, or "to make sure there are shares available to buy if people want them" as well as "make sure there is a buyer if people want to sell." Exchanges need it: liquidity makes for easy buying and selling.
|
||||
|
||||
- A MM is the intermediary for almost any securities transaction. It is positioned between the exchange and the brokers/dealers/funds that do not have access to the exchange, or they use the MM to do the buying work for them, lol. Or the MM is positioned on the other side of a transaction, supplying the securities in demand.
|
||||
|
||||
- A MM is always in a position of risk. They are constantly in a place to be on the losing side of a transaction if they "guess" wrong.
|
||||
|
||||
- Note: Citadel has many branches, but it's two major branches are its hedge fund and its MM. I will be referring only to its MM activity.
|
||||
|
||||
* * * * *
|
||||
|
||||
1.1: Plus Ultra
|
||||
|
||||
Take a moment to marvel at how Citadel has installed themselves in [so many markets around the world](https://www.fi-desk.com/market-structure-meet-the-new-market-makers/). They are Market Makers and/or liquidity providers in nearly every major exchange on earth: (*Note: my undersrtanding of a liquidity provider is that it's a bit like a less-powerful MM*)
|
||||
|
||||
[Citadel Securities own splash page](https://i.redd.it/tolp2scxfw571.png)
|
||||
|
||||
- US/North America: NYSE, NASDAQ, CBOE (not even going to bother with links here, you know they're there), [Toronto](https://www.tsx.com/trading/toronto-stock-exchange/order-types-and-features/market-maker-program/market-makers-list?id=5)
|
||||
|
||||
- Europe: [London/Ireland](https://www.financemagnates.com/forex/brokers/citadels-technology-arm-posts-30-decline-in-2019-revenue/), Amsterdam[], Frankfurt[]
|
||||
|
||||
- Asia/Pacific: Hong Kong, [Singapore](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-citadel-singapore/citadel-securities-hedge-fund-citadel-to-open-new-office-in-singapore-idUSKBN25K08J), Sydney [], Shanghai []
|
||||
|
||||
- (Apologies on missing links, I've saved so many links through this whole drama that I can't find some of my sources anymore. And this is not the full list, this is only what I could put together for this post.)
|
||||
|
||||
Citadel is truly an intmidating company based on the position it occupies in markets worldwide.
|
||||
|
||||
1.2: E Pluribus Unum
|
||||
|
||||
So WHY has Citadel strived to achieve such a large footprint across the globe?
|
||||
|
||||
*Because there is a flaw in the markets across the world: it depends on Market Makers.*
|
||||
|
||||
- Exchanges are set up to have several Market Makers providing liquidity.
|
||||
|
||||
- So the Market Maker has responsibilities for supply and demand of a given security.
|
||||
|
||||
- It's an essential service so exchanges empower MMs with exclusive powers and responsibilities.
|
||||
|
||||
Take a look at the exclusive powers the NYSE gives its DMMs (like a "Super" Market Maker): [From the NYSE DMM page](https://i.redd.it/n16pu83yiw571.png)
|
||||
|
||||
- MMs have *Superpowers* and wield immense control over securities.
|
||||
|
||||
- Exchanges rely on incentives for winning bids (coupons) as a way of creating competition and fair prices at the exchange.
|
||||
|
||||
MMs are intended to be balanced by competing against each other
|
||||
|
||||
- ...so that the customers (brokers) can get the best value, and the Market Makers are financially rewarded for their service...
|
||||
|
||||
- ...but that means the MMs are competing for as many transactions as possible on the exchange. As much as their risk can allow.
|
||||
|
||||
So the better the MMs are at managing risk, the more control they have over the exchange (because they capture more of the transactions)
|
||||
|
||||
- And there are advantages for MMs who perform better and capture more volume -- they can leverage the volume to achieve better prices and capture even *more* transactions.
|
||||
|
||||
- You've probably seen this chart, but it shows the size that MMs have become: [Citadel is almost as big as the CBOE -- the main options exchange for the US](https://i.redd.it/idkn9cchpn571.png)
|
||||
|
||||
- (Citadel, Virtu, and G1 are all MMs.)
|
||||
|
||||
- The important part about that graphic is the NYSE, NASDAQ, and CBOE volumes *include the transactions with Citadel and Virtu*.
|
||||
|
||||
The MMs are becoming (or already are) bigger than the exchanges themselves. And the exchanges depend on them.
|
||||
|
||||
- Furthermore, the exchange is limited -- to a certain location, structure, set of regluations, list of securities, etc. Almost all exchanges are for profit.
|
||||
|
||||
- But if the exchange provides no security that can't be bought on another exchange, then the exchange needs to compete on best price - or else it's revenue goes away.
|
||||
|
||||
- And exactly *who* at the exchange offers the best price?
|
||||
|
||||
- But a Market Maker is free to engage in multiple exchanges. So if a financial product is available in one exchange, but not another, and an MM is in both exchanges, then the Market Maker can offer it because it a separate entity (if it legally can).
|
||||
|
||||
- And the Market Maker is free offer their best price at multiple exchanges, or even directly.
|
||||
|
||||
What advantage does the exchange itself have? They can't provide *anything* that the Market Makers themselves can't/don't provide.
|
||||
|
||||
- *As an analogy, if you are used to shopping for separate items across several stores -- food at the farmers market, clothes at the mall, etc. -- a company like Amazon or WalMart will have an advantage by selling the same items for a comparable price in one convenient place.*
|
||||
|
||||
It's "malls" vs. "Target/WalMart/Amazon/Costco" all over. We all know who won that one.
|
||||
|
||||
1.3: Man o' War
|
||||
|
||||
I mentioned "volume" earlier -- that is going to be key here.
|
||||
|
||||
- Market Making is already very risky, but the size of the established players make it prohibitive for new entrants. A new MM would need significant advantages to compete against Citadel, Susquehanna, and Virtu who will have superior positioning, expertise, technology, market understanding, funding, risk tolerance...
|
||||
|
||||
> "The way to think about Citadel is as the Amazon of trading," says Spencer Mindlin, a capital markets technology analyst at Aite Group. In an industry that relies heavily on technology, Citadel has forged ahead by playing "a game of scale. You reach a point where it's impossible for others to compete," he says. [emphasis mine] - [Quartz](https://qz.com/1969532/how-ken-griffins-citadel-transformed-financial-markets/)
|
||||
|
||||
Backstory:
|
||||
|
||||
- In the early 2010's Ken tired to make Citadel an investment bank and failed (lol)....
|
||||
|
||||
- ...but it ended up being one of those "lemons to lemonade" things for him. Because Ken realized that other MMs were *banks*, which were a major disadvantage. You see, *Banks* were encumbered with "regulations", "capital requirements" and stupid "investors". But Market Makers didn't need a bank, so they didn't need to have those pesky constraints.
|
||||
|
||||
- Then Ken stopped trying to be a bank. Which meant he could capture the MM market.
|
||||
|
||||
- Citadel went on to buy out competing Market Maker assets from [Citi](https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2016/05/16/citadel-securities-buys-citi-market-making-assets/84437638/), [Goldman Sachs/IMC](https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/citadel-securities-reaches-preliminary-agreement-to-acquire-dmm-unit-from-imc-301149075.html), and [KCG](https://www.tradersmagazine.com/departments/brokerage/citadel-purchases-kcg-dmm-business-becomes-1-on-nyse/) to grow his market share and reduce compeition.
|
||||
|
||||
- And now, the Market Maker field is NOT competitive. The number of DMMs in NYSE has decreased over the years.
|
||||
|
||||
- Citadel has heavily "leveled-up" and is bar none THE biggest player on the field.
|
||||
|
||||
This is why Citadel is in so many exchanges. Successful practices can be copied from one exchange to the next, with market advantages and rewards that scale. Why shouldn't Citadel be a MM in every major exchange on earth?
|
||||
|
||||
- But you realize what this means, right?
|
||||
|
||||
*The exchanges have become commodities.* They are necessary for fulfilling their role as a securites selling venue, but have no unique value to themselves.
|
||||
|
||||
> "We already have 16 stock exchanges, over 30 ATSs and handful of market maker SDPs, do we really need the banks to further fragment liquidity?" [emphasis mine] - [Themis Trading](https://blog.themistrading.com/2020/12/14434/)
|
||||
|
||||
The TRUE value to the market is a firm that spans multiple exchanges and offers the breadth of securities available at competitive prices.
|
||||
|
||||
1.4: The Commonwealth
|
||||
|
||||
*But, but -- what about compeition? What about Virtu, G1, and the MMs in other countries? I thought you said this was a cOmPEtITivE field.*
|
||||
|
||||
It's true, Virtu & G1 do "compete" against Citadel. But they have an... "interesting" relationship which prompts some theories and requires further investigation.
|
||||
|
||||
- First, Citadel needs to maintain the appearance of a free market to avoid antitrust lawsuits. They also need other Market Makers to offload the transactions that they are unwilling to take. A duopoloy or even triopoly is fine as long as they control the market.
|
||||
|
||||
- Second, from Virtu's perspective (*they're the largest competitor so I'll use them here*), it doesn't make sense to go head-to-head directly with Citadel on transactions -- Citadel has better positioning and a technological edge.
|
||||
|
||||
- And directly competing with a superior opponent would be expensive for Virtu. However, they would stand to profit from joining with Citadel if they took the same positions as them.
|
||||
|
||||
- And wouldn't you know it, Apes have discovered that Virtu and Citadel are doing the *exact same things* across many tickers. Here are 2 famous ones: [MAX-D](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nyxs1f/learn_from_the_past_when_they_didnt_care_to_hide/), [GME](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nr6urb/i_look_up_top_brokers_for_gme_year_to_date_and/) [Any more Apes want to do asset comparison between Citadel & Virtu? CALLING SUPERSTONKS MOST QUANTED] (s/o to [u/BadassTrader](https://www.reddit.com/u/BadassTrader/), [u/JustBeingPunny](https://www.reddit.com/u/JustBeingPunny/), [u/Sti8man7](https://www.reddit.com/u/Sti8man7/))
|
||||
|
||||
- That said, Virtu could still compete *indirectly* - they would need to find a niche where they could gain an advantage and separate themselves from Citadel...
|
||||
|
||||
- ...and oh look Virtu seems [very focused on client experience](https://s21.q4cdn.com/422114427/files/doc_presentations/2020/09/Virtu-Financial-Presentation-Sept-2020-Draft-v3.pdf), where Citadel is focused on product and market position.
|
||||
|
||||
So Virtu is disincentivized to directly compete against Citadel, and is incentivized to coordinate with and complement Citadel.
|
||||
|
||||
Monopoly much?
|
||||
|
||||
1.5: The Crown Jewel
|
||||
|
||||
If you STILL believe that being a Market Maker IS competitive and that exchanges are NOT commoditized, and that Virtu and Citadel are taking the same positions for non-collusive reasons ("*Exchanges are the pumping heart of a free economy! Of course EXCHANGES have control and NOT the Market Makers, the Market Makers are just making the plays they see are winners*"), and you need even more convincing... I have bad news.
|
||||
|
||||
About 9 months ago the MEMX exchange opened.
|
||||
|
||||
*Why is that a big deal? Who opened the exchange?* [*Let's check the MEMX website...*](https://memx.com/)
|
||||
|
||||
- [Oh.](https://i.redd.it/ujeiloi5dw571.png)
|
||||
|
||||
- Citadel and Virtu (and some other players you might recognize) *OPENED THEIR OWN EXCHANGE.*
|
||||
|
||||
- [Yeah.](https://i.redd.it/0kxh46xwcw571.jpg)
|
||||
|
||||
"*But, but -- they wouldn't open their own exchange to profit at the expense of the market, would they?*"
|
||||
|
||||
- [*On the MEMX own splash page*](https://i.redd.it/gff2fr1edw571.png)
|
||||
|
||||
- "*MEMX will represent the interests of its founders*" - MEMX.com
|
||||
|
||||
- So, founders first, everybody else after. FROM. THEIR. OWN. FUCKING. SPLASH. PAGE.
|
||||
|
||||
"*But, but -- maybe it's just a small side thing and it's not really going anywhere?*"
|
||||
|
||||
- [Right. Yeah. Sure.](https://i.redd.it/owqyk8kxdw571.png)
|
||||
|
||||
"*But, but -- wouldn't that piss off the other exchanges? They would want to attack the MEMX founders in some way, right?*"
|
||||
|
||||
- [Yup.](https://i.redd.it/hknpksgdew571.png)
|
||||
|
||||
Exchanges have become so commoditized and Market Makers have such an entrenched advantage that the dominant Market Makers have opened their own exchange, MEMX, whose primary purpose is to serve their interests at the expense of other exchanges.
|
||||
|
||||
"Free market."
|
||||
|
||||
TL;DR
|
||||
|
||||
Citadel is/was moving to monopolize securities transactions at the exchange level.
|
||||
|
||||
- Market Makers have the most control over transactions at exchanges.
|
||||
|
||||
- Citadel is the largest Market Maker across exchanges worldwide (*can't find the sauce []*).
|
||||
|
||||
- Citadel has more power than the exchanges do, offering more products, more ways to purchase them, in more venues than the exchanges.
|
||||
|
||||
- Citadel has even started its own exchange in September 2020, which is growing rapidly.
|
||||
|
||||
- MM Competition is deterred from directly competing with Citadel - they have too much influence, and competitors are incentivized to coordinate with Citadel, not compete.
|
||||
|
||||
- The number of MMs have decreased in major exchanges while Citadel's market share is growing.
|
||||
|
||||
Structurally speaking, Citadel is in a position to directly control the price of many securities and transactions at the exchange level.
|
||||
|
||||
And that's not even all of it. Part 2 coming soon...
|
@ -0,0 +1,449 @@
|
||||
The Sun Never Sets on Citadel -- Part 2
|
||||
=======================================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/swede_child_of_mine](https://www.reddit.com/user/swede_child_of_mine/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/od4bb1/the_sun_never_sets_on_citadel_part_2/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
[DD 👨🔬](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22DD%20%F0%9F%91%A8%E2%80%8D%F0%9F%94%AC%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||
[Part 1](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/o2xz48/the_sun_never_sets_on_citadel_part_1/)
|
||||
|
||||
Apes, I'm stunned. I've rewritten this post several times because of what I've discovered. I haven't seen it anywhere else on Superstonk.
|
||||
|
||||
All of this is intertwined. I won't be able to get to all of the pieces of Citadel in this part so this DD will continue... and build... into Part 3.
|
||||
|
||||
This is a fucking ride.
|
||||
|
||||
* * * * *
|
||||
|
||||
Preface, part 1: Kudos
|
||||
|
||||
First I'd like to follow up on some key critiques from [Part 1](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/o2xz48/the_sun_never_sets_on_citadel_part_1/) and give kudos:.
|
||||
|
||||
- EU MMs -- MAJOR kudos to [u/NoughtyNought](https://www.reddit.com/u/NoughtyNought/) who did digging on finding [the list of EU MMs](https://www.esma.europa.eu/sites/default/files/library/list_of_market_makers_and_primary_dealers.pdf).
|
||||
|
||||
- DE markets -- MAJOR kudos to [u/LNhamburg](https://www.reddit.com/u/LNhamburg/) who has been looking into European markets since February and even followed up on my post with an [awesome post of their own](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/o3c7ar/a_european_footprint_after_reading_the_sun_never/).
|
||||
|
||||
But first, I need to apologize. I erroneously said Citadel was an MM across the EU in Part 1. I found conflicting sources, and Citadel *is* an MM in Ireland, but I should have clarified. I'll explain more on "how" and "why" I missed this later, but props to these Apes above who did their Due Due Diligience, I am in your debt. (*"To err is human..."*)
|
||||
|
||||
- Several users also pointed out: MEMX lists several "friendly" institutions, including BlackRock and Fidelity, as founders, not just Citadel and Virtu.
|
||||
|
||||
- This is true! Kudos to the several users who broght this up: [u/mattlukinhapilydrunk](https://www.reddit.com/u/mattlukinhapilydrunk/), [u/Robin_Squeeze](https://www.reddit.com/u/Robin_Squeeze/)
|
||||
|
||||
So what should we make of Citadel being at MEMX? *Does Citadel really control MEMX -- or even monopolize the market -- if Blackrock, Virtu, and Fidelity are there too?*
|
||||
|
||||
* * * * *
|
||||
|
||||
2.0: Introduction
|
||||
|
||||
The price of $GME is artificial. Prior posts have shown how $GME is being illegally manipulated by key players to the financial system, namely Citadel. These companies abuse their legitimate privileges to profit themselves at the expense of the market and investors. But it goes much deeper: Citadel is now positioned to do more than just monopolize securities transactions. Citadel is positioned to BE the market for securities transactions.
|
||||
|
||||
Wait, what?
|
||||
|
||||
Buckle up.
|
||||
|
||||
* * * * *
|
||||
|
||||
2.1: KING, I
|
||||
|
||||
Citadel's influence on the market is all due to one quality: Volume.
|
||||
|
||||
Volume is king.
|
||||
|
||||
- There is no way to understate it. Remember [this chart?](https://i.redd.it/idkn9cchpn571.png) Citadel and Virtu's combined volume being larger than ANY exchange is only the *beginning*, it's our *starting point*.
|
||||
|
||||
Do you want to know why it's taking so long to MOASS?
|
||||
|
||||
- Look at this [tweet estimating the fees the MMs make off of volume.](https://i.redd.it/0ruptccy0u871.png) - [sauce](https://twitter.com/EricBalchunas/status/1354775322445701128)
|
||||
|
||||
- MMs made an estimated $350M+ in four days. January 27 (the "sneeze") [volume was 24.8 billion equities traded](https://www.marketsmedia.com/us-equity-trading-volume-reaches-record/) for a single day.
|
||||
|
||||
- (we now know the MMs also took the full income of the shares they sold since they were selling pledged shares and never delivered)
|
||||
|
||||
- This illustrates how the MMs generate revenue off of any volume. They do this with nearly any security or transaction they make a market for.
|
||||
|
||||
*So the same activities that empower Apes to create the MOASS also provide the MMs with more resources to prolong the arrival of MOASS.*
|
||||
|
||||
What a fuckin' paradox.
|
||||
|
||||
* * * * *
|
||||
|
||||
2.2: Kneel before the crown
|
||||
|
||||
Volume is king. Once a firm hits a critical mass of transactions, it become impossible NOT to deal with that firm. For example:
|
||||
|
||||
Exchanges
|
||||
|
||||
- The NYSE & Nasdaq view Citadel/MEMX as a threat. Look at this article posted on the Nasdaq website [regarding MEMX](https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/the-answer-to-memx-2020-07-06):
|
||||
|
||||
> "MEMX will provide market makers with the ability to bypass the exchanges entirely." (*lol, so pissy*)
|
||||
|
||||
*(credit to *[u/Fantasybroke](https://www.reddit.com/u/Fantasybroke/)* for their *[*awesome comment*](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/o2xz48/the_sun_never_sets_on_citadel_part_1/h2936st/)*)*
|
||||
|
||||
- As much as these exchanges might be "frenemies" with Citadel, they still need to function as businesses.
|
||||
|
||||
- This pandemic posed a major issue for the NYSE: *how could they do IPOs* -- a critical function for exchanges -- *when all traders were remote?*
|
||||
|
||||
- They relied on Citadel. [Nine times](https://www.businessinsider.com/how-citadel-securities-dmms-are-handling-ipos-remotely-2020-5).
|
||||
|
||||
- There was *no other firm* that had the capability to execute. Only Citadel.
|
||||
|
||||
Brokers
|
||||
|
||||
- Awhile back there was a post about how a broker sent notice to clients saying in effect that they wouldn't know how to source their transactions in the event of Citadel defaulting. Users should expect delays in transactions if that happened.
|
||||
|
||||
- (*eToro? WeBull? Schwab? TDA?* *Superstonk I need the source, help![]*)
|
||||
|
||||
- If confirmed, this implies major brokerages are becoming or already are reliant on Citadel for basic, essential functions.
|
||||
|
||||
[WHAT. THE. FUCK.](https://www.reactiongifs.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/10/tom-delonge-wtf1.gif)
|
||||
|
||||
Let me it say again another way: we are at a point where MAJOR BROKERAGES AND EVEN EXCHANGES DO NOT KNOW HOW TO FUNCTION WITHOUT CITADEL.
|
||||
|
||||
But it's bigger than that -- it's not just key players in the market that are reliant on Citadel.
|
||||
|
||||
But first.
|
||||
|
||||
* * * * *
|
||||
|
||||
2.3: The Four Corners
|
||||
|
||||
> *We... manufacture money.*\
|
||||
> *-- Ken Griffin*
|
||||
|
||||
That Ken Griffin quote stood out to me, I have a background in operations with experience in manufacturing & logistics. "Manufacture" implies certainty of output, given the correct inputs. Looking at Citadel's actions in the context of manufacturing - supply and demand -- we can reverse engineer the strategy. Understand how we got here. Let's go. (*This is important groundwork, but if you need to skip you can jump to "2.4: Corner 3: Buyer"*)
|
||||
|
||||
Overview
|
||||
|
||||
You can think of the financial industry as one that manufactures "transactions", in the same way that the automotive industry manufactures "vehicles" of all varieties.
|
||||
|
||||
To manufacture a transaction requires a buyer, a seller, a product, and is produced in a venue (a.k.a. a "Transaction factory").
|
||||
|
||||
- The national "supply" comes from the collection of the different "factories": exchanges, ATS's (Dark Pools), SDP's (single-company terminals), etc. Each of the venues produces a slice of the overall Transactions pie chart.
|
||||
|
||||
- Supply of "raw materials" (lol) - buyers and sellers with products - flow into the various factories. Exchanges have been the primary "Transaction factories" for centuries. NYSE and Nasdaq still produce a large portion of US transactions every year.
|
||||
|
||||
- These exchanges employ Market Makers as a permanent stand-in buyer, seller, or provider of products at the exchanges -- whatever is needed. Exchanges charter MMs to provide the missing pieces to complete the transactions, and provide the MMs with special abilities to do so. Because exchanges benefit from having MMs.
|
||||
|
||||
So...
|
||||
|
||||
if you were a Market Maker, and you already provide the raw materials for buyer, seller, and product pieces of "production," what would you want to do next if you wanted to grow?
|
||||
|
||||
You would want a venue. Then you could manufacture transactions independently.
|
||||
|
||||
So guess what Citadel wants to do?
|
||||
|
||||
But -- is Citadel is ready? Do they really have enough Products, Sellers, and Buyers to supply a "factory" of their own?
|
||||
|
||||
* * * * *
|
||||
|
||||
2.2: Corner 1: PRODUCT
|
||||
|
||||
Product is about range. Range of available products is CRITICAL feature demanded by clients, as well as the necessary volume.
|
||||
|
||||
Storytime:
|
||||
|
||||
- A few months back a reddit user commented about their experience working at a financial firm (*for the love of everything I can't find the comment now -- Superstonk help again!?[]*). I don't remember the username, probably something like "stocksniffer42" or whatevs, lol. Let's call him "Greg."
|
||||
|
||||
- Greg would occasionally need to make securities transactions at a nearby terminal, a couple times a week. Price wasn't really important to Greg.
|
||||
|
||||
- But what WAS significant was availability. Greg had providers he preferred because they had what he needed. When they didn't it was super inconvenient for him because THEN Greg would have to search through enough providers to find what he needed. The more "availability" that a certain provider offered, the more likely Greg used them.
|
||||
|
||||
- This is pretty much the Amazon/WalMart/Target strategy. You're more likely to buy from them since they have everything. Even if it's not the lowest price.
|
||||
|
||||
Exchanges have a limited offering -- CBOE doesn't offer the same products as NYSE and vice-versa.
|
||||
|
||||
Huh, look at that. Citadel is a MM for multiple exchanges - CBOE, NYSE, and NASDAQ. Looks like Citadel can offer options, securities, bonds, [swaps](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-09-01/ken-griffin-gets-redemption-in-swaps-market-once-ruled-by-banks), and pretty much [any product under the sun](https://www.citadel.com/disclosures/).
|
||||
|
||||
Seems like they have "Product" pretty well sorted. What about the other pieces?
|
||||
|
||||
* * * * *
|
||||
|
||||
2.3: Corner 2: SELLER
|
||||
|
||||
Generally, Sellers are interested in only PRICE. However, price is the LEAST important aspect of all demand, believe it or not. (*Note: we'll assume some interests overlap between buyer and seller because the same party can alternate roles.*)
|
||||
|
||||
Price is supported market-wide by a sense of trust and pre-arranged transaction costs:
|
||||
|
||||
- Price is set nationally by the NBBO -- [the National Best Bid and Offer](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/n/nbbo.asp). A national price range that establishes trust with buyers and sellers. Everybody abides by it. [Nobody will be scamming anyone on price in the NBBO](https://www.law.berkeley.edu/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/bartlett_mccrary_latency2017.pdf). Because...
|
||||
|
||||
- Venues (like exchanges) don't make money off price, they make it from member fees, or sub-penny fees.
|
||||
|
||||
- Product prices can vary quickly, so it's somewhat relative. Precision pricing isn't a concern for the vast majority of non-HFT trades.
|
||||
|
||||
- Buyers will proceed if the price is within their acceptable range and doesn't have an undue markup.
|
||||
|
||||
- Market Makers make very little money on individual transactions, usually.
|
||||
|
||||
- (We individual retail investors may want maximum profit through a single transaction (**cough** DIAMOND HANDS **cough**)... but not Market Makers.)
|
||||
|
||||
However, institutional sellers have an additional price agenda:
|
||||
|
||||
- Volume sellers don't want to flood the market of their given security, dropping the price right as they sell. They want to offload the asset in a price-friendly way.
|
||||
|
||||
- Strategic sellers don't want the marketplace to know that they changed a position, they want to keep their transactions private.
|
||||
|
||||
These sellers would want a venue that won't affect the public price and remains private.
|
||||
|
||||
So price agenda is relative - it's up to each party to decide their interests. At the point of transaction price is either pre-negotiated (for volume sells), or else *precise* price does not matter for non-HFT transactions. (*Would you sell $XYZ at $220.05 but NOT at $220.02?*)
|
||||
|
||||
Strategically, if Citadel wanted to increase its volume of sellers it would need:
|
||||
|
||||
- the ability to absorb large volumes of securities (i.e. buy a lot at a competitive price)
|
||||
|
||||
- source a large volume of buyers to match with the sellers.
|
||||
|
||||
- have a private transaction venue to attract sellers of any volume
|
||||
|
||||
Interesting. Seems like Citadel is probably already doing a lot of this activity through the exchanges or Dark Pools they might be connected to.
|
||||
|
||||
How about the last piece?
|
||||
|
||||
* * * * *
|
||||
|
||||
2.4: Corner 3: BUYER
|
||||
|
||||
A Buyer is interested in one thing: EASE OF ACCESS.
|
||||
|
||||
*Like Greg, a buyer wants easy access to a range of securities, acceptable prices, and easy access to to sellers.*
|
||||
|
||||
Citadel can be all of these and/or provide them, but, wait --
|
||||
|
||||
How exactly can clients BUY from Citadel?
|
||||
|
||||
*Maybe clients can buy from Citadel on the public exchanges?*
|
||||
|
||||
- True, but Citadel could still lose the bid. Or pay additional fees, or lose on the bid-ask spread.
|
||||
|
||||
- Also, that's no good for Citadel. It means the clients are coming to the exchanges, which are the venues Citadel is trying to compete against.
|
||||
|
||||
*Perhaps their target clients are institutions that want the kind of lower-cost, lower-visibility option that a Dark Pool offers? Can clients buy from Citadel on one of the many Dark Pools/ATSs?*
|
||||
|
||||
- Yes, but the Dark Pools can be "pinged" by HFTs to reveal positions and interest. Someone else could front run the transaction.
|
||||
|
||||
- And again, the venue would be making the transaction, not Citadel.
|
||||
|
||||
*So why doesn't Citadel do their own Dark Pool then? Why should the US's largest Market Maker pay to use someone else's Dark Pool?*
|
||||
|
||||
- Okay, let's check if Citadel Has their own ATS. Hmmm... that's weird. There is [no ATS registered to Citadel](https://www.sec.gov/files/data/alternative-trading-system-ats-list/atslist053121.pdf). *Anywhere.*
|
||||
|
||||
- (Dark Pools have to [register through form ATS-N](https://www.sec.gov/divisions/marketreg/form-ats-n-filings.htm) due to SEC regulation ATS)
|
||||
|
||||
*So if Citadel has to compete for buyers in exchanges, and they pay to go through Dark Pools, then why, or how, do clients buy from Citadel? How does Citadel get its volume?*
|
||||
|
||||
Easy.
|
||||
|
||||
Citadel Connect.
|
||||
|
||||
*Wait, what?*
|
||||
|
||||
[Citadel Connect](https://i.redd.it/v35705zpru871.png).
|
||||
|
||||
That's right. You've been in these subs for 6 months and you haven't heard of Citadel Connect? Citadel's "not a Dark Pool" Dark Pool? (That's not by coincidence, btw).
|
||||
|
||||
[*MOTHERFUCKER WHAT?!?!*](https://i.redd.it/wy0fpnnb0u871.jpg)
|
||||
|
||||
Citadel Connect is an SDP, not an ATS. The difference is the reporting requirements. SDPs do not have to make the disclosures that either the exchanges or even the ATSs (a.k.a. Dark Pools) have to.
|
||||
|
||||
- (FINRA once took a look at [regulating SDPs](https://www.sec.gov/rules/sro/finra/2019/34-86315.pdf), but decided [not to](https://i.redd.it/328lgq1s1v871.png)).
|
||||
|
||||
[Yep.](https://media0.giphy.com/media/UvtKiyeWYEhRC/giphy.gif?cid=ecf05e47d9juouou9jrbshblwc2adl6q17tv6g424rp2kvoi&rid=giphy.gif&ct=g)
|
||||
|
||||
There is a laughable amount of search results for Citadel Connect on Google. There are no images of it that I could find. I believe it is an API-type feed that plugs into existing order systems. But I couldn't tell you based on searches. I found no documentation -- just allusions to its features.
|
||||
|
||||
- So when the SEC regulated ATSs in 2015, Ken shut down Citadel's actual Dark Pool, [Apogee](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-citadel-darkpool/citadel-securities-to-close-apogee-dark-pool-sources-idUSKBN0MN22Q20150327), in order to avoid visibility altogether. Citadel started routing transactions [through Citadel Connect](https://www.reuters.com/article/citadel-darkpool/citadel-sees-volume-surge-in-its-citadel-connect-dark-pool-idUSL2N0LQ17H20140221) instead.
|
||||
|
||||
- Citadel Connect doesn't meet the definition of an ATS. There is no competition -- no bids, no intent of interest, no disclosures -- nothing. It is one order type from one company.
|
||||
|
||||
- Order type is IOC (Immediate Or Cancel), and the output is binary -- a type of "yes" or "no". You deal only with Citadel.
|
||||
|
||||
- *"Citadel, here's 420 shares of $DOOK, will you buy at $6.969?"*
|
||||
|
||||
- "YES" --> *transaction complete*, or
|
||||
|
||||
- "NO" --> *end transaction*
|
||||
|
||||
- Since it's private, the only information that comes out of the transaction is what's reported to the tape, 10 seconds after the transaction.
|
||||
|
||||
*Okay, so you're just buying from a single company, that doesn't seem like a big deal. And aren't there are *[*a lot of other SDPs*](https://blog.themistrading.com/2020/12/14434/)*? So why is this a problem?*
|
||||
|
||||
By itself? Not a problem. Buyers and sellers love it, I'm sure.
|
||||
|
||||
However...
|
||||
|
||||
* * * * *
|
||||
|
||||
2.5: KING, II
|
||||
|
||||
Volume is king.
|
||||
|
||||
Citadel does such volume that it is considered a "securities wholesaler", one of only a few in the US. Like Costco, or any wholesale business, it deals in bulk. But Citadel can deal in small transactions, too.
|
||||
|
||||
Citadel has a massive network of sales connections through its Market Maker presence at US exchanges. It capitalizes on the relationships through Citadel Connect, turning them into clients.
|
||||
|
||||
- Citadel has a market advantage with its volume of clients.
|
||||
|
||||
Citadel Connect integrates into existing ATSs and client dashboards (here's an example from [BNP Paribas](https://i.redd.it/dojfd7lyru871.png) - [sauce](https://globalmarkets.cib.bnpparibas/app/uploads/sites/4/2021/05/execution-venues-us-version.pdf)). Like Greg's testimonial, I suspect it's easy for just about any financial firm to deal directly with Citadel.
|
||||
|
||||
- Citadel has an ease of access advantage.
|
||||
|
||||
And given Citadel's wide range of products it conducts business in and is a Market Maker for, I'm sure Citadel is an attractive option for just about anyone in the financial industry who wants to buy or sell a financial product of any kind. Competitive prices. Whether in bulk or in small batches. Whether privately or publicly. However frequently, or whatever the dollar amount might be.
|
||||
|
||||
- Citadel has a privacy and pricing advantage.
|
||||
|
||||
Like Amazon, WalMart, and Target, Citadel is offering *everything*: a wide range of products, nearly any volume, effortless ease of access, the additional powers of an MM, and a nearly ubiquitous presence. Doing so lets Citadel capture a massive amount of market share. So much that it is prohibitive to other players, relegating them to smaller niche offerings and/or a smaller footprint.
|
||||
|
||||
- Citadel has market presence advantage.
|
||||
|
||||
* * * * *
|
||||
|
||||
2.6: The Final Piece: VENUE
|
||||
|
||||
So guess what Citadel wants to do?
|
||||
|
||||
But... do you get it? Have you figured it out?
|
||||
|
||||
Citadel doesn't need to get a venue.
|
||||
|
||||
Citadel *IS* the venue.
|
||||
|
||||
Citadel is [internalizing](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/i/internalization.asp) a substantial volume of transactions from the marketplace. It's conducting the transactions inside its own walls, acting AS the venue in itself.
|
||||
|
||||
Said another way, Citadel is "black box"-ing the transaction market, and it's doing so at a [massive volume](https://i.redd.it/drdcsznn0u871.png) - [sauce](https://www.rblt.com/market-reports/let-there-be-light-us-edition-24).
|
||||
|
||||
- *Okay, so it sounds like Citadel is just buying and selling from multiple parties, and making a profit off the spread. Every firm does that, though, right? It's just arbitrage, it doesn't make them an exchange.*
|
||||
|
||||
Citadel is offering the features of an exchange, or even benefiting from existing exchanges (i.e. the NBBO, MM powers across multiple exchanges) without any of the regulations of an exchange. It can offer more products, more easily, more quickly, more cheaply, and more privately than an exchange could. It's so non-competitive that IEX - yeah, the exchange - [wrote about the decline of exchanges](https://medium.com/boxes-and-lines/the-rising-tide-of-broker-costs-and-the-shrinking-pool-of-competitors-40d4d389e59a):
|
||||
|
||||
> "...trends of the past decade have seen a sharp increase in costs to trade on exchanges, a sharp decrease in the number of exchange broker members, and a steady erosion in the ability of smaller or new firms to compete for business."
|
||||
|
||||
It is doing this at the same time that brokers and even exchanges are relying on Citadel more and more. And, by the way - *why are they so reliant on Citadel in the first place?* Glad you asked.
|
||||
|
||||
Volume is limited. So the more volume Citadel takes...
|
||||
|
||||
- ...the less volume there is for the competition.
|
||||
|
||||
- ...the more reliant the other players are on Citadel for buying and selling.
|
||||
|
||||
- ...the less profit for competitors, so the more expensive their services have to be.
|
||||
|
||||
This "rich-get-richer" advantage is known as a "virtuous cycle" (hah -- "virtuous") -- one of the most sought-after business advantages.
|
||||
|
||||
Citadel is capturing and internalizing more and more transactions, driving up costs for exchanges and making the competition smaller and smaller while also making them more dependent on Citadel to conduct critical business operations.
|
||||
|
||||
"Free market"
|
||||
|
||||
* * * * *
|
||||
|
||||
2.7: "...to forgive, devine."
|
||||
|
||||
Apes, I told you I would follow up on "how" and "why" I missed on Citadel not being an MM across the EU.
|
||||
|
||||
The EU marketplace is structured differently than the American markets, with different rules and roles. I knew Citadel had a massive presence in the EU, I just missed the role. I think you can put together [why](https://i.redd.it/axa0gpvap1971.png).
|
||||
|
||||
* * * * *
|
||||
|
||||
2.8: TL;DR
|
||||
|
||||
Citadel is moving beyond monopolizing the MM role, it has captured a massive portion of all securities transactions and is moving them off-exchange. For an undisclosed portion of transactions, Citadel IS the market.
|
||||
|
||||
- Citadel positioned itself to provide every piece required to provide transactions -- buyers, sellers, product -- at an unrivaled scale, allowing it to be a wholesale internalizer.
|
||||
|
||||
- ("Internalizing" here is shorthand for "one company acting as a private exchange without exchange regulations or oversight").
|
||||
|
||||
- Citadel does this through an SDP called "Citadel Connect," which is a type of Dark Pool that doesn't require disclosure.
|
||||
|
||||
- Citadel's overall volume and market position are prohibitive to new competition and also drives away all but the largest competitors.
|
||||
|
||||
- Even exchanges are losing volume to Citadel's OTC market share, threatening the exchanges' position in the market.
|
||||
|
||||
Citadel is capturing more and more of the transactions market, experiencing less competition, as it enjoys more and more entrenched advantages, at the expense of the market and the investor.
|
||||
|
||||
This is the groundwork that will set us up for Part 3.
|
||||
|
||||
* * * * *
|
||||
|
||||
Part 3 coming soon...
|
||||
|
||||
* * * * *
|
||||
|
||||
EPILOGUE: Dieu et mon droit
|
||||
|
||||
"But it's bigger than that -- it's not just key players in the market that are reliant on Citadel."
|
||||
|
||||
Including this after the TL;DR for all to see. This is why I was delayed.
|
||||
|
||||
This is a 2 minute video from Citadel's own page. [Watch it.](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eVfxEBE-nI4&t=158s) It blew me away when I saw it, and I'll explain why below. Transcription mine (streamlined version):
|
||||
|
||||
> *Mary Erodes:* That's a really important shift. The groups that used to make markets, i.e. step in when no one else was there, were the banks. They have shrunk by law. So when we need liquidity in the future... [points at Ken] He's has a fiduciary obligation to care only about his shareholders and his investors. He doesn't have an obligation to step in to make markets for the sake of making markets. It will be a very different playbook when we go through the liquidity crunch that eventually will come.
|
||||
|
||||
> *Ken Griffin:* I think this is very interesting, "what is the role [Citadel] will play in the next great market correction?" ...[In financial crashes] no one buys the asset that represents the falling knife. The role of the market maker is to maximize the availability of liquidity to all participants. Because the perception and reality that you create liquidity helps to calm the markets. We worked with NYSE and the SEC to re-architect trading protocols... The role of large investment banks has been supplanted by not only Citadel Securities, but by a whole ecosystem of statistical arbitrage that will absorb risk that comes to market quickly.
|
||||
|
||||
[emphasis mine]
|
||||
|
||||
Let me summarize. Mary and Ken commented that:
|
||||
|
||||
- The old way of stabilizing financial crises was through multiple banks negotiating a solution to stabilize the economy.
|
||||
|
||||
- Banks can no longer do this due to regulations and their position in the market.
|
||||
|
||||
- Citadel (Ken) sees a Market Maker's role as a stabilizer, to make sure there are no violent price swings.
|
||||
|
||||
- Citadel worked with NYSE and SEC to re-architect the markets/economy on this belief that MMs will stablize and calm markets.
|
||||
|
||||
IF this is true, and IF what Ken spoke of is an accurate reflection of how the market is now structured, then here is the subtext and implications:
|
||||
|
||||
- Market Makers, specifically Citadel and Virtu, are now the ECONOMY'S "immune system," they are the first and best line of defense against catastrophic collapse.
|
||||
|
||||
- Their function is to make sure that no single security or asset class can expose the market to overwhelming risk.
|
||||
|
||||
- They manage this risk through statistical arbitrage and coordination with authorities (NYSE & SEC) on behalf of the market.
|
||||
|
||||
- Citadel worked with the oversight organizations to influence the structure of the overall market.
|
||||
|
||||
Going deeper:
|
||||
|
||||
Everyone in this room knew about naked shorting. And that Citadel was a primary culprit.
|
||||
|
||||
Which implies that somewhere, at some point, a deal was reached, tacitly or explicitly. The NYSE and SEC were in on it (at the time):
|
||||
|
||||
Citadel/MM's get to control securities prices with relative impunity. Naked shorting and all.
|
||||
|
||||
And in return, Citadel is responsible for making sure that no more crashes happen.
|
||||
|
||||
[WHAT THE FUCK.](https://i.giphy.com/media/kGweWfIbaezO8/giphy.webp) I have no words.
|
||||
|
||||
IF this is true, the implications for the MOASS are...
|
||||
|
||||
- Citadel defaulting is the equivalent of the entire economy getting full blown AIDS and spinal cancer at the same time. Knocking out the immune system and the functional response chain of the market.
|
||||
|
||||
- This leaves the market vulnerable to violent price swings that can instantly bankrupt other players
|
||||
|
||||
- ...which is why the DTCC is so concerned about member defaulting and transferring of assets...
|
||||
|
||||
- ...and another reason why the MOASS is taking so long: every player in the economy needs Citadel's assets need to remain intact, to stabilize the market and continue acting as the immune system.
|
||||
|
||||
This video is from 2018. It has been over 2 years since then, at the time of this writing.
|
||||
|
||||
Buy. Hodl.
|
||||
|
||||
* * * * *
|
||||
|
||||
Note 1: [u/dlauer](https://www.reddit.com/u/dlauer/) if you're reading this I'd like to connect re:part 3 - HMU with chat (DMs are off)\
|
||||
Note 2: If you guys find the links I couldn't find (i.e. "Greg", and the brokerage letter saying Citadel defaulting would delay their transactions) - comment and I'll update!\
|
||||
Note 3: Apes, I've seen responses to part one that end in despair. Be encouraged - regulators (NYSE, SEC, et. al) don't seem to like the current setup anymore. Gary Gensler's speech last month was laser-focused on Citadel and Virtu (and also confirms this DD):
|
||||
|
||||
> Further, wholesalers have many advantages when it comes to pricing compared to exchange market makers. The two types of market makers are operating under very different rules. [...]
|
||||
|
||||
> Within the off-exchange market maker space, we are seeing concentration. One firm has publicly stated that it executes nearly half of all retail volume.[2] There are many reasons behind this market concentration --- from payment for order flow to the growing impact of data, both of which I'll discuss.
|
||||
|
||||
> Market concentration can deter healthy competition and limit innovation. It also can increase potential system-wide risks, should any single incumbent with significant size or market share fail.
|
||||
|
||||
I don't think the guy likes Citadel very much lol
|
||||
|
||||
* * * * *
|
||||
|
||||
Edit: I'm seeing some responses that think this post implies Citadel is all powerful or controls everything. Very much not the case. Apes have them by the balls. Buy and Hodl, as always. But it helps to know exactly *what* we are up against, and *why* the MOASS is taking time. Also, we don't really want Citadel to just change the name on the building and get a new CEO - that doesn't really solve the problem, does it?
|
76
02-Resources/2021-07-01-Resources.md
Normal file
76
02-Resources/2021-07-01-Resources.md
Normal file
@ -0,0 +1,76 @@
|
||||
# Resources
|
||||
|
||||
| Name | Description |
|
||||
| :---: | :---: |
|
||||
| [GameStop Newsroom](https://gamestop.gcs-web.com/news-releases-0) | Stay up to date with GameStop's latest strategic initiatives. |
|
||||
| [GameStop Investor Relations](https://gamestop.gcs-web.com/home) | Source for GameStop's financial news. |
|
||||
| [Ape's Guide to the Galaxy](https://www.reddit.com/r/DDintoGME/comments/mnss65/the_apes_guide_to_the_galaxy_a_compilation_of_dds/?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share) | Compilation of DD, News, Announcements, Tools, and Resources |
|
||||
| [GME DD](https://gmedd.com/) | Resource that aggregates a compilation of GME due diligence. |
|
||||
| [GME Timeline](https://gmetimeline.com/) | Comprehensive timeline of GME-related events. |
|
||||
| [GME Technical Analysis](https://www.investing.com/equities/gamestop-corp-technical) | Tracks technical analysis, news, and other insights for a particular stock. |
|
||||
| [IBorrowDesk](https://iborrowdesk.com/report/GME) | Monitors borrow rates and availability using Interactive Broker's freely available data. |
|
||||
| [Stonk-O-Tracker](https://gme.crazyawesomecompany.com/) | Tracks available shares to borrow, options data, FTDs, and more. |
|
||||
| [Where are the Shares?](https://wherearetheshares.com/) | Tool that monitors FTDs. |
|
||||
| [SEC - Fails-to-Deliver Data](https://www.sec.gov/data/foiadocsfailsdatahtm) | Website that provides FTD data. |
|
||||
| [GME ETFs](https://www.etf.com/stock/GME) | Tracks how many ETFs hold GME. |
|
||||
| [ETF Channel](https://www.etfchannel.com/symbol/gme/) | Website that shows ETF holdings of a particular stock. |
|
||||
| [NASDAQ Short Interest](https://www.nasdaqtrader.com/Trader.aspx?id=ShortInterest#) | Provides short interest data for mid-month and end of month settlement dates for a particular stock. |
|
||||
| [Ortex - Short Interest](https://www.ortex.com/symbol/NYSE/GME/short_interest) | Dashboard that show short interest data. |
|
||||
| [NASDAQ - Real Time Trades](https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/stocks/gme/latest-real-time-trades) | Tool to monitor real time trades. |
|
||||
| [S&P 500 Heatmap](https://finviz.com/map.ashx) | Website that allows you to observe when Hedge Funds are liquidating in which sector(s). |
|
||||
| [Holdings Channel](https://www.holdingschannel.com/bystock/?symbol=gme) | Displays a list of funds holding GME. |
|
||||
| [Fintel - GME Institutional Ownership](https://fintel.io/so/us/gme) | Dashboard that shown ownership data, short interest %, and other reports. |
|
||||
| [FINRA - Morningstar](http://finra-markets.morningstar.com/MarketData/EquityOptions/detail.jsp?query=14%3A0P000002CH&sdkVersion=2.60.0) | Tracks equity and options data along with other information. |
|
||||
| [Yahoo - GME Historical Data](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/GME/history?p=GME) | Shows a running history of GME previous open and closing prices, volume, etc. |
|
||||
| [Superstonk Quants](https://www.superstonkquant.org/) | Open-source resource that aims to provide quantitative analysis on the market. |
|
||||
| [Gamestonk Terminal](https://www.reddit.com/r/DDintoGME/comments/mxl0co/move_over_bloomberg_terminal_here_comes_gamestonk/) | Bloomberg-like Terminal created by [u/SexyYear](https://www.reddit.com/u/SexyYear/) |
|
||||
| [Stockgrid - Dark Pool Data](https://www.stockgrid.io/darkpools) | Dashboard that shows dark pool data. |
|
||||
| [NASDAQ - Reg SHO Threshold List](https://www.nasdaqtrader.com/Trader.aspx?id=RegSHOThreshold) | List that displays securities that are currently on threshold. |
|
||||
| [Repo and Reverse Repo Operations](https://apps.newyorkfed.org/markets/autorates/tomo-results-display?SHOWMORE=TRUE&startDate=01/01/2000&enddate=01/01/2000) | Tracks ON-RRP and participants daily. |
|
||||
| [Buffet Indicator](https://currentmarketvaluation.com/models/buffett-indicator.php) | Resource that depicts when the market is overvalued or undervalued. |
|
||||
| [Advisor Perspectives](https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2021/06/04/the-s-p-500-dow-and-nasdaq-since-their-2000-highs) | Shows inflation-adjusted charts of the S&P 500, Dow 30, and Nasdaq. |
|
||||
| [DTCC - SEC Rule Filings](https://www.dtcc.com/legal/sec-rule-filings) | Lists rule filings from major institutions. |
|
||||
| [US Senate Stock Watcher](https://senatestockwatcher.com/) | Website created by [u/rambat1994](https://www.reddit.com/u/rambat1994/) that tracks stock trades of US Senate Members. |
|
||||
| [US House of Representatives Stock Watcher](https://housestockwatcher.com/) | Website created by [u/rambat1994](https://www.reddit.com/u/rambat1994/) that tracks stock trades of US House of Representatives. |
|
||||
| [Investor.gov - Researching Investments](https://www.investor.gov/introduction-investing/getting-started/researching-investments) | Website that you walks you through how to do your due diligence. |
|
||||
| [Tax My Tendies](https://taxmytendies.com/) | Tools that helps you calculate how much you'll owe in taxes post-MOASS. (US only). |
|
||||
|
||||
*Table inspired by [u/Truffluscious](https://www.reddit.com/user/Truffluscious/)*
|
||||
|
||||
# GameStop
|
||||
| Show support at |
|
||||
| :-: |
|
||||
| [Gamestop.com](https://www.gamestop.com/) |
|
||||
| [Become a PowerUp Rewards Member](https://www.gamestop.com/poweruprewards/) |
|
||||
| [... Which gets you a subscription to Game Informer Magazine](https://www.gameinformer.com/) |
|
||||
| [Follow Gamestop on Twitter](https://twitter.com/GameStop) |
|
||||
| [Subscribe to Gamestop's YouTube Channel](https://www.youtube.com/user/gamestopvideo) |
|
||||
| [Follow Gamestop on Twitch](https://www.twitch.tv/gamestop) |
|
||||
| [Follow Gamestop on Instagram](https://www.instagram.com/gamestop/?hl=en) |
|
||||
| [Follow Gamestop on Facebook](https://www.facebook.com/GameStop) |
|
||||
| [Apple Devices- Download the Gamestop App](https://apps.apple.com/us/app/gamestop/id406033647) (Link to App Store) |
|
||||
| [Android Devices- Download the Gamestop App](https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=com.gamestop.powerup) (Link to Play Shop) |
|
||||
| Brands owned by Gamestop; ThinkGeek, GameInformer, [MicroMania](https://www.micromania.fr/), and [EB Games](https://www.ebgames.ca/) |
|
||||
| [Gamestop Ireland](https://www.gamestop.ie/), [Gamestop Germany](https://www.gamestop.de/) |
|
||||
|
||||
*Table created by [u/pinkcatsonacid](https://www.reddit.com/user/pinkcatsonacid/)*
|
||||
|
||||
# Social Media
|
||||
| Name | Twitter | YouTube |
|
||||
| :-: | :-: | :-: |
|
||||
| [Superstonk](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/) | | 🚨 [Superstonk Emergency Broadcast](https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCI4EET9NJPWxUuXGlG6fxPA) 🚨 |
|
||||
| [u/DeepFuckingValue](https://www.reddit.com/user/DeepFuckingValue/) | [@TheRoaringKitty](https://twitter.com/theroaringkitty?lang=en) | [Roaring Kitty](https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC0patpmwYbhcEUap0bTX3JQ) |
|
||||
| Ryan Cohen | [@ryancohen](https://twitter.com/ryancohen) | |
|
||||
| [RedChessQueen](https://www.reddit.com/user/redchessqueen99/) | [@RedChessQueen99](https://twitter.com/RedChessQueen99) | |
|
||||
| [Rensole](https://www.reddit.com/user/rensole/) | [@rensole](https://twitter.com/ryancohen) | |
|
||||
| [HeyItsPixel](https://www.reddit.com/user/HeyItsPixeL/) | [@heyitspixel69](https://twitter.com/heyitspixel69) | |
|
||||
| [PinkCatsOnAcid](https://www.reddit.com/user/pinkcatsonacid/) | [@PinkCatsOnAcid](https://twitter.com/PinkCatsOnAcid) | |
|
||||
| [Dennis Kelleher](https://www.reddit.com/user/WallSt4MainSt/) | [@BetterMarkets](https://twitter.com/BetterMarkets) | |
|
||||
| [Alexis Goldstein](https://www.reddit.com/user/dontfightthevol/) | [@alexisgoldstein](https://twitter.com/alexisgoldstein) | |
|
||||
| Justin Dopierala | [@DOMOCAPITAL](https://twitter.com/DOMOCAPITAL) | [DOMO Capital Managment LLC](https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC3rCaBlsLlWJagcpbsais4w) |
|
||||
| Susanne Trimbath, PhD | [@SusanneTrimbath](https://twitter.com/SusanneTrimbath) | |
|
||||
| [Dave Lauer](https://www.reddit.com/user/dlauer) | [@dlauer](https://twitter.com/dlauer) | |
|
||||
| Andy Lee | | [Andy Lee](https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC2e4QZAVEXQyH7BXfEE1GyA) |
|
||||
| [ByeTriangle](https://www.reddit.com/user/Bye_Triangle/) | [@ByeTriangle](https://twitter.com/ByeTriangle) | |
|
||||
| [sharkbait](https://www.reddit.com/user/sharkbaitlol) | [@u_sharkbaitlol](https://twitter.com/u_sharkbaitlol) | |
|
||||
| [BradduckF](https://www.reddit.com/user/Bradduck_Flyntmoore/) | [@BradduckF](https://twitter.com/BradduckF) | |
|
@ -0,0 +1,56 @@
|
||||
The NYSE threshold list: collapsing shorts and launching the MOASS
|
||||
==================================================================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/Bladeace](https://www.reddit.com/user/Bladeace/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/oao9oo/the_nyse_threshold_list_collapsing_shorts_and/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
[DD 👨🔬](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22DD%20%F0%9F%91%A8%E2%80%8D%F0%9F%94%AC%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||
TA;DR: threshold list killed small shorts in January. Big shorts took on their positions. Threshold list restrictions coming for big shorts too. Watch for GME being added to the threshold list.
|
||||
|
||||
TL;DR: restrictions associated with extended periods of failures to deliver inform the past six months of GME shenanigans. These restrictions killed the small players who were short GME in January and allowed big players to take on their position. Big players assumed they could use their powers and resources to turn this losing hand into a big win. Apes stopped them. Now, finally, the big players are going to find these same restrictions applied to them - watch for GME being added to the threshold list.
|
||||
|
||||
Background
|
||||
|
||||
The New York Stock Exchange provides a list of 'threshold securities', which are securities that are regarded as difficult to borrow due to a large number of recent failures to deliver. When a security is on this list, there are limits on a market maker's ability to short sell the security in question and obligations regarding delivery requirements. These restrictions and obligations can increase the longer the security stays on the list. For further information and some relevant links, please see [this comment](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/o9x3hf/guys_before_you_downvote_this_to_hell_bc_its_not/h3e1asv?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3) by [u/Cirand](https://www.reddit.com/u/Cirand/). There is currently some discussion of this topic because moviestock has been added to the threshold list recently, [this post](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/o9x3hf/guys_before_you_downvote_this_to_hell_bc_its_not/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3) by [u/OrwellsWarning](https://www.reddit.com/u/OrwellsWarning/) presents tweets by [u/dlauer](https://www.reddit.com/u/dlauer/) and Susanne Trimbath which is a good place to look for discussion of the significance of the threshold list (see the comments).
|
||||
|
||||
In short, the ability to perform fucketry is diminished when a security is on the threshold list. /udlauer tweets that it might be unusual for companies like GME to make it onto this list (usually it's small companies). [This rather underappreciated post](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/oadcb3/i_made_these_charts_illustrating_occurrences_of/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3) by [u/mlebjerg](https://www.reddit.com/u/mlebjerg/) provides graphs of the price of moviestock and GME in relation to their being on the threshold list. Notice that the price of moviestock does not appear to be related to their being on the threshold list. Neither does the price of GME, with a notable exception.
|
||||
|
||||
Key point
|
||||
|
||||
Given the restrictions that come with being on the threshold list and its relationship with the historical prices of the two securities, I suspect the effect of being on the threshold list do not translate to price changes until the security has been on the list for long enough to compromise the ability of those with short positions to manipulate the price. On the below graph I compare the price of GME with the number of concurrent days it has been on the threshold list:
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/yfmbrye3lb871.png?width=685&format=png&auto=webp&s=c28e1c25971667b38fc8717aba790de881771e86)
|
||||
|
||||
From the end of December 2020 and into the beginning of February 2021 GME was on the threshold list for 39 market days. I believe that this answers an important question that has been outstanding since February: it explains why they needed to resort to a market halt to stop the January spike but not the February gamma.
|
||||
|
||||
The difference between January and February
|
||||
|
||||
In [this post](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/mvvuhp/feb_2426_failed_launch_attempt_and_proof_the_dtcc/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3) from April I argue that the unusual market activity during February, the 'gamma swarm' or 'gamma squeeze', was an attempt to launch the MOASS that failed due to those shorting GME flooding the market with ever more short positions, which mitigated attempts to rapidly rise the price. In [this post](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nc1h4o/findings_from_my_analysis_of_605_data_huge_short/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3) from May I argue that the changes in order flow indicate that the market center Citadel Securities was used to open a large short position in January and the NASDAQ market center was used to manipulate the price in February. These two arguments leave an unanswered question: if the spike in February was prevented by manipulation involving inter-market-center fucketry, why did they need to resort to a trading halt to prevent the January spike?
|
||||
|
||||
I think the threshold list answers that question: trading was halted in January because GME had been on the threshold list for weeks prior to the spike, which prevented the other methods of price restricting manipulation available to those shorting GME. After weeks on the threshold list, and in the face of massive buying pressure, they had no winning play left - so they halted trading. I suspect that, with trading halted, they then brought the minimum number of GME shares required to cover the outstanding failures to deliver which then removed GME from the threshold list. I expect that this actually left them with *an even bigger* outstanding short position, considering how much it would have expanded during the January spike: they opened a bigger position due tomorrow, to close the positions keeping GME on the list today. I think this led to the game they've been playing since February.
|
||||
|
||||
The story so far
|
||||
|
||||
Notice that GME has not returned to the threshold list since early February. I think that this is because the parties shorting GME since then have been more competent, better resourced, and more powerful. I suspect that GME went onto the threshold list in December 2020 because a smaller player, perhaps Melvin Capital, was failing to cover or defer their short positions. Ultimately, this led to the January spike and a more powerful institution capable of the manipulation required to stop the spike stepping in. Essentially, I think at least one smaller player who was short GME collapsed in December and January which undermined the ability of the larger players to control the situation. In response, I suspect that the larger players with market maker privileges and influence over market centers took over these collapsing players.
|
||||
|
||||
This is why I think that the short position was *expanded* in January even though I also think some positions were covered. As I discuss [in my post regarding the 605](https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/comments/nc2zcc/findings_from_my_analysis_of_605_data_huge_short/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3) data (also linked earlier, the may post), it appears that the market center Citadel Securities was used to expand a short position during the January spike. Notice that the restrictions associated with a security being on the threshold list are not applied to all parties equally. This is how shorting took place in January, despite GME having been on the list for weeks - it was one of the smaller players failing to deliver that got GME on the list, so the big players were not suffering all of the related restrictions (especially those with influence over their own market center). I suspect that the short position was expanded dramatically in the leadup to the January spike and then, after the trading halt, the *oldest positions* were covered to resolve those failures to deliver that were keeping GME on the threshold list. In this manner, the short position was moved from small players to the big ones and the overall short position expanded while the reported short position lowered substantially.
|
||||
|
||||
With their short position bigger than ever, I suspect that they attempted to crash the price in February to convince everyone that it's time to sell their GME shares. At this point, their position is likely looking quite strong - the short positions opened in January were at a high price per share, which means they've received more money from buyers than the current share price. So, on paper anway, they are in a strong position - yes, they owe an insane amount of GME shares, but the price of GME is now much lower. As long as they can *eventually* convince everyone this is over, they'll likely come out of this stronger than ever. If they can keep issuing more short positions that they eventually cover at a much lower price, after shareholders give up and move on, they'll actually have profited over this debacle and gobbled up smaller players. Provided the apes stop buying and move on, they've turned an infinite loss position into a huge win. Masterstroke.
|
||||
|
||||
This is a bold plan, it will turn a massive loss into a huge win. So, they go all in and do an excellent job of it. The trading halt works by allowing them to consolidate the short positions into only those players big enough to pull this strategy off. Expanding the short position provides an influx of cash from buyers. Further shorting after the trading halt drops the price in early February. The political fallout allows them to announce very publicly that they've closed their positions. The media narrative fits perfectly to what they need to portray. For the first few weeks of February, it's working.
|
||||
|
||||
Except, it doesn't work. It's an excellent play and they executed it well. Regardless, two factors prevent their success. Firstly, millions of weirdos from the internet appear to have disregarded all traditionally authoritative sources of information and keep buying more shares. Given the complete lack of any evidence to justify this behaviour, it's understandable that this caught the shorts off guard. At this point, it's too late - they're beyond fully committed to this play, they've gambled everything they have and the health of the entire financial markets on this. So, they do what they can to undermine this bizarre online resistance. Unfortunately, for them, they are also facing resistance from other big players who, for whatever reason, are not willing to allow them this victory. This resistance from other big players comes in the form of the February gamma, which attempts to launch the squeeze that was prevented with the trading halt ([link to my April post on this](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/mvvuhp/feb_2426_failed_launch_attempt_and_proof_the_dtcc/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3), also linked earlier).
|
||||
|
||||
This sets the stage for everything that follows, March onwards. In January and early February the shorts win the battles. Smaller players die and cause a massive mess, but this allows the big-shorts to take over their positions and expand their short positions at a favorable price point while doing so. They gamble on an extreme play, a trading halt, to crash the price and it works. However, Apes pervert their attempts to motivate selloffs and realize they are being targeted with misinformation - so, they gather together to defend themselves. Ultimately, this becomes [r/SuperStonk](https://www.reddit.com/r/SuperStonk/). Other big players, perhaps fearing what the big-shorts have become and are doing, instigate the February gamma which reverses a large portion of the price crash and exposes the ongoing manipulation. As February draws to a close, the gamma has failed to launch the rocket and the Apes have only a vague understanding of what is happening. It's a stalemate.
|
||||
|
||||
I think the battles fought in January and February have informed everything that followed. The big players short GME have used their power, influence, and resources to avoid any further restrictions on their GME activities. The big players opposing them have done what they can, but can't launch the rocket. Apes' might be described as the wildcard, but I think they're better understood as the battleground. As the months drag on, they grow in sophistication, numbers, and power. Six months into this mess, they're the ones holding the winning hand. It's the Apes' whose shares need to be brought: the shorts always needed retail shares, but after six months of endless shorting they now need *a lot* of retail shares and, much worse, the retail holders know it.
|
||||
|
||||
If my outline, story I guess, is correct, then the outcome is inevitable. At least, assuming Apes hold. Eventually, especially in the face of tightening restrictions, GME is going to end up back on that threshold list. Once it does, the powers and privileges allowing those short GME to fight will be steadily stripped away until they can't do anything except watch as their obligations to the NSCC kick in and the attempt to close the infinite loss position they have burdened their peers with begins. I suspect this is why the new restrictions are finishing off with 'rules clarifications' that limit rehypothecation and prevent a borrowed share from being used to 'deliver' an earlier position. Once the failures to deliver can no longer be hidden, GME is going to end up back on that threshold list. Once it's there, those with outstanding failures to deliver will have their ability to short GME restricted and the big-shorts will be caught in the same trap they 'saved' the little shorts from in January.
|
||||
|
||||
Finally, please note a recent by [u/Feeling_Point_5978](https://www.reddit.com/u/Feeling_Point_5978/) yesterday (I can't link, it's on a different subreddit) for discussion of this in the context of Moviestock. For what it's worth, I think that Moviestock is our canary in the coal mines on this issue. I suspect that the new restrictions, finally in effect from last week, will result in the failures to deliver GME to being piling up quite soon. If this happens, expect to see GME on the threshold list soon after. Once it's there, the restrictions escalate until it's off the list. I suspect that there is only one way GME is getting off that list once it's back on it, and that's the MOASS.
|
||||
|
||||
(Please note that my incompetence limits the reliability of any of the above. I argue, think, and suspect many things; my saying it doesn't mean much regardless of how I phrase it - read with caution!)
|
@ -0,0 +1,30 @@
|
||||
Holy shit, THOSE MOTHER FUCKERS. thesis 2.0: RRP is the reason there has been no big boy margin call liquidations in the states. US T Bonds are considered collateral, its funding rehypothication, allows dividends, and finally institutions are able to circle jerk each other ETFs as their holdings.
|
||||
=========================================================================================================================================================================================================================================================================================================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/A_KY_gardener](https://www.reddit.com/user/A_KY_gardener/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/oab880/holy_shit_those_mother_fuckers_thesis_20_rrp_is/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
[Discussion 🦍](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22Discussion%20%F0%9F%A6%8D%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||

|
||||
|
||||

|
||||
|
||||

|
||||
|
||||

|
||||
|
||||

|
||||
|
||||

|
||||
|
||||

|
||||
|
||||
|
||||
|
||||
|
||||
|
||||
|
@ -0,0 +1,51 @@
|
||||
Hank's thot experiment
|
||||
======================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/HomeDepotHank69](https://www.reddit.com/user/HomeDepotHank69/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/oay9vr/hanks_thot_experiment/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
[Discussion 🦍](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22Discussion%20%F0%9F%A6%8D%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||
******** I am not a financial advisor, this is not financial advice *********
|
||||
|
||||
Hey everyone thanks for reading my post yesterday. I'm still on a break from making big DDs (unless I stumble upon something major that warrants immediate attention), but in the mean time I wanted to create a dialogue, a thought experiment if you will.
|
||||
|
||||
The point of this post is simply to create a discussion in the comments that will serve as ideas for future DDs for myself and other wrinkles as well as to generally facilitate a discussion.
|
||||
|
||||
Here are my discussion questions:
|
||||
|
||||
GENERAL QUESTIONS:
|
||||
|
||||
In your opinion, what is the most likely trajectory of GME (i.e. if you had to predict what it will do for the next few months, what would you say)?
|
||||
|
||||
```
|
||||
What other scenarios could you see?
|
||||
|
||||
```
|
||||
|
||||
What topics do you want to see wrinkles make DDs about?
|
||||
|
||||
What are the biggest weaknesses in the body of content of our current DD (i.e. what topics do we need to focus on because they are weaker)?
|
||||
|
||||
What is the weakest part of the general theory of GME? What is the strongest?
|
||||
|
||||
SPECIFIC QUESTIONS:
|
||||
|
||||
Even if the FTD cycle theory is incorrect, it's still true that each cycle, the floor/support increases, which means that the price has increased steadily since February. However, as we all know, volume has been absolutely horrible -- pathetic. In a normal stock, this increase would be called a nonvolume supported trend; however, I think most of us believe this is happening because apes are holding, so the volume is just day traders and the HFs have moved buying volume into OTC trades. With that in mind, let's say that volume continues to decrease. If volume continues to decrease, assuming nothing material changes about GME, what do you think is the most likely trajectory (i.e. is there a point we could get to where volume would be miniscule or close to zero and if so what would do you think will happen)?
|
||||
|
||||
The $350 level seems to be significant. The previous two times we got near it, we were BRUTALLY rejected and saw HUGE downtrends. The only time we got over it was January, when the market literally shut down buying. With that in mind, what is your take on the significance of this level? Is there a method we could use to reverse engineer it to try to find SI? What would you like to see us focus on with DD here?
|
||||
|
||||
Do you think the MOASS will happen sooner (let's say before the end of August) or later and why?
|
||||
|
||||
Many of you probably saw my last post where I used data from the absolute beauties that are our quants to determine that the "meme stocks" are correlated. My thoughts were that it indicated that institutions took large short positions on them all at the same time. What are your thoughts? Why do you think all of these stocks have been following similar patterns? IMO I don't think retail is behind it because it's impossible for a nonorganized/noncorrdinated group to make multiple stocks behave the same way for months. Though we undoubtedly have power, we can't coordinate like HFs, so I don't think that retail just randomly decided to buy and sell all of these at the same time? What do you think?
|
||||
|
||||
What do you think about GME and coin (can't say because of automod)? I've documented the FTD cycle connection and how it might be used for covering, but what do you think?
|
||||
|
||||
We all thought that RC being named board lord would be the "catalyst" causing the MOASS, but GME has reacted inconsistently to catalysts. Do you think catalysts have are relevant anymore? Do you think a catalyst will cause the MOASS or do you think it will be random like January?
|
||||
|
||||
Finally, I expect this post to get a fair amount of activity, so if you have anything interesting to say or ask that I didn't cover above please put it below!
|
||||
|
||||
******** I am not a financial advisor, this is not financial advice *********
|
@ -0,0 +1,46 @@
|
||||
The Final Battle
|
||||
================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/thomas798354](https://www.reddit.com/user/thomas798354/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/DDintoGME/comments/oar709/the_final_battle/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
[𝗦𝗽𝗲𝗰𝘂𝗹𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻](https://www.reddit.com/r/DDintoGME/search?q=flair_name%3A%22%F0%9D%97%A6%F0%9D%97%BD%F0%9D%97%B2%F0%9D%97%B0%F0%9D%98%82%F0%9D%97%B9%F0%9D%97%AE%F0%9D%98%81%F0%9D%97%B6%F0%9D%97%BC%F0%9D%97%BB%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||
Apes as I see my fellow comrades disappointed on the battlefield I began to go back to my drawing board and think tactfully as how I would wargame from Citadel's point of view. I realize a lot of you are mad about T+21 and I must really have supporting documents this time so I will proceed slowly with lots of quotes and rule references, I invite anyone to politely cite their opinion.
|
||||
|
||||
TLDR; Citadel used the OTM options locates one last time to the extreme before 005 came into effect to try and buy back shares at the lowest price possible. Hold the Stock, don't fall for the other baited plays coming up, and be patient apes. Short squeezes will be a thing of the past after this. 005 will hopefully stop locates in options chains and also prevent a lent shares from being rehypothecated and leant to someone else. We could see the borrow time reduced to a maximum of T+6.
|
||||
|
||||
REG SHO 101-
|
||||
|
||||
Rule 203: Locate requirement- *Locate Requirement*. Regulation SHO requires a broker-dealer to have reasonable grounds to believe that the security can be borrowed so that it can be delivered on the date delivery is due before effecting a short sale order in any equity security.[[7]](https://www.sec.gov/investor/pubs/regsho.htm#_ftn7) This "locate" must be made and documented prior to effecting the short sale.
|
||||
|
||||
Rule 204: *Close-out Requirement*. Rule 204 requires brokers and dealers that are participants of a registered clearing agency[[8]](https://www.sec.gov/investor/pubs/regsho.htm#_ftn8) to take action to close out failure to deliver positions. Closing out requires the broker or dealer to purchase or borrow securities of like kind and quantity. The participant must close out a failure to deliver for a short sale transaction by no later than the beginning of regular trading hours on the settlement day following the settlement date, referred to as T+4. If a participant has a failure to deliver that the participant can demonstrate on its books and records resulted from a long sale, or that is attributable to bona fide market making activities, the participant must close out the failure to deliver by no later than the beginning of regular trading hours on the third consecutive settlement day following the settlement date, referred to as T+6. If the position is not closed out, the broker or dealer and any broker or dealer for which it clears transactions (for example, an introducing broker)[[9]](https://www.sec.gov/investor/pubs/regsho.htm#_ftn9) may not effect further short sales in that security without borrowing or entering into a bona fide agreement to borrow the security (known as the "pre-borrowing" requirement) until the broker or dealer purchases shares to close out the position and the purchase clears and settles. In addition, Rule 203(b)(3) of Regulation SHO requires that participants of a registered clearing agency must immediately purchase shares to close out failures to deliver in securities with large and persistent failures to deliver, referred to as "threshold securities," if the failures to deliver persist for 13 consecutive settlement days.[[10]](https://www.sec.gov/investor/pubs/regsho.htm#_ftn10) Threshold securities are equity securities[[11]](https://www.sec.gov/investor/pubs/regsho.htm#_ftn11) that have an aggregate fail to deliver position for five consecutive settlement days at a registered clearing agency (e.g., National Securities Clearing Corporation (NSCC)); totaling 10,000 shares or more; and equal to at least 0.5% of the issuer's total shares outstanding. As provided in Rule 203 of Regulation SHO, threshold securities are included on a list disseminated by a self-regulatory organization ("SRO"). Although as a result of compliance with Rule 204, generally a participant's fail to deliver positions will not remain for 13 consecutive settlement days, if, for whatever reason, a participant of a registered clearing agency has a fail to deliver position at a registered clearing agency in a threshold security for 13 consecutive settlement days, the requirement to close-out such position under Rule 203(b)(3) remains in effect.
|
||||
|
||||
Rule 204 Exception: Rule 204 provides an extended period of time to close out certain failures to deliver. Specifically, if a failure to deliver position results from the sale of a security that a person is deemed to own and that such person intends to deliver as soon as all restrictions on delivery have been removed, the firm has up to 35 calendar days following the trade date to close out the failure to deliver position by purchasing securities of like kind and quantity.
|
||||
|
||||
Okay lets start with what is happening, since before January the SHF (short Hedge Funds) realized that they couldn't bankrupt GME anymore. Their new goal is to get the price to be as low as possible before they cover due to almost all the Hedge Funds short already being at 49% losses or more. In 2019, before they were going to short GME to death they wanted to profit off of the derivatives market and placed puts on Jan 15th a huge options date that could have been bet on years out. At T+3 we saw a big run up Jan 22 from T+4 opened 42$ closed 65$ running to 96$ before premarket. The next day, T+5 was trash it opened at 96$ and closed at 76.79$ (not special). This was followed with T+6 where the latest date to close was opened at 88.56 and closed at 147.98 after markets running to 354.83. May 21 lead to May 26/27 and June 1/2 T+3, T+6 sometimes the deliveries catch up after market and premarket.
|
||||
|
||||
Time to start explaining my little working theory. I am now a hedge fund, come join me in shorting GME (theoretically). So imagine this, we want to short the crap out of GME in a few different ways. Everyday downwards pressure to suppress price, and once a month we want to unload to spike it down. In order to short GME we must first find a broker willing to lend us shares, but this provides us with a problem because we don't own these shares we have to return them in T+3 or T+6. If we provide the locate for these shares meaning we own them or a security that is "like" them then we fall under the exception.
|
||||
|
||||
Let me paint a picture for you, June 2 closed high from the T+6 from May. June 4th I was eating a protein bar on a ruck march thinking about how fucked the HF were when I saw SSR for AMC and GME.....Then the SHF borrow shares 3 & 4 June to short and replace them T+3 which was June 8/9 the SSR was because the HF borrowed all the shares possible from the brokers and ETFs. We are hype going into the shareholder meeting, so hype about 350$ no one is questioning why the SHF bought so many OTM options on July 16th. The HF loaded their short cannons with locates for the earnings report meaning they could short shares as much as possible with their locates at close to 85M total shares in JULY-JAN2022 options chain.
|
||||
|
||||
"If a failure to deliver position results from the sale of a security that a person is deemed to own and that such person intends to deliver", "the firm has up to 35 calendar days following the trade date to close out the failure to deliver position by purchasing securities of like kind and quantity." Funny how they shorted the crap out of GME June 10th and 35 calendar days is July 15th, the day prior to their options expiring.
|
||||
|
||||
Let me show you what this looks like from the round table at citadel securities:
|
||||
|
||||
Hey Ken, I can't buy you anymore time over at DTCC. I have to pass 005 but I can make sure we file it June 24 and that it doesn't get sent to the federal register until June 30th. This buys you enough time to trick them with a T+3 borrow and a massive located short sale during a share offering, not to mention their disappointment that the new rules don't work at all. The short will cause apes to lose faith when 30% of the value disappears, and the only risk is that if you cant get the price low enough to cover under 350$ before July 16th. We lose anyways because 005 is in effect and July 16th will have T+3, T+6 buys when those OTM locates expire and cannot be kicked. To make matters worse the ETFs cannot help them anymore, the Russel 1k has even less shares to borrow. This is the last ditch effort to get the price down before they have to cover. Simultaneously they are attacking us with all of these "buy this instead" plays while GME sits idle and loses value, look at the threshold securities list! Half the people hyping it don't even know wtf it means.
|
||||
|
||||
Remember the DFV tweet from Ready Player One, sometimes we must go backwards to win the race. Remember the latest cohen tweet with the fart alluding to the south park movie where kenny watches Terrance and Phillip in the movie theater and lights his own fart on fire, then he dies by getting dumped on by a "russell's" salt truck.
|
||||
|
||||
[I'm not making this up](https://preview.redd.it/thwgb9sjic871.png?width=926&format=png&auto=webp&s=a33017b3e7998cdb02a1f66fdabda05cce27fca2)
|
||||
|
||||
Threshold Securities List- Threshold securities are equity securities[[11]](https://www.sec.gov/investor/pubs/regsho.htm#_ftn11) that have an aggregate fail to deliver position for five consecutive settlement days at a registered clearing agency (e.g., National Securities Clearing Corporation (NSCC)); totaling 10,000 shares or more; and equal to at least 0.5% of the issuer's total shares outstanding. Let me show you how easy this is to do with large float stocks for insert example stock...... borrow 500M*.005 shares= 2.5M and then don't return them.
|
||||
|
||||
That's it! That's all they have to do borrow less than 1% of the float and not return it.
|
||||
|
||||
Edit: Let me explain why I don't think net settlement is a big deal, these bad guys have an unfathomable amount of money. I highly doubt someone that controls 30% of all trading is going to go bankrupt over a single security guys. These little HFs have been going bankrupt, they have. Look at Melvin, archegos, greensill, GFG, the new one out of London. They are feeling the heat, one by one they have been failing. Getting these giant bosses to fail is a completely different story, as much as we want to see these giant ones fall it's most likely not going to happen. They will survive with bailouts, tricks, illegal trading, whatever the reason may be. Make no mistake however this is a financial revolution and we got what we wanted. These rules that are put in place will stop them from doing what they have been doing under REG SHO. Will they take a big hit at the end of the day? Yes, will they all die? No, did we change the way the game is played? Certainly. They paid to take over Reddit nuff said.
|
||||
|
||||
Just buy and hold GME. Our time is coming.
|
@ -0,0 +1,46 @@
|
||||
Simple FTD math based on u/ChrisCraftTexasUSA post... GME appears to only have about 30 times more FTDs than TSLA... Just...
|
||||
============================================================================================================================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/taranasus](https://www.reddit.com/user/taranasus/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/obh3z3/simple_ftd_math_based_on_uchriscrafttexasusa_post/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
[Possible DD 👨🔬](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22Possible%20DD%20%F0%9F%91%A8%E2%80%8D%F0%9F%94%AC%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||
The starting point of my maths: [(1) GME FTD shares Failed to Deliver SEC link: https://sec.report/fails.php?tc=36467W109 : Superstonk (reddit.com)](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/obet09/gme_ftd_shares_failed_to_deliver_sec_link/)
|
||||
|
||||
I think "FUCK ME" is an understatement here. I've been comparing GME FTDs with TSLA FTDs since TSLA is the more "Volatile" of the stocks out there. The numbers are mind blowing.
|
||||
|
||||
The very last datapoint we have on GME is June 14, with a FTD count of 105,712
|
||||
|
||||
The highest ever nr of FTDs in one day for TSLA was on DEC 17, 2020, at 1,382,452 FTDs.
|
||||
|
||||
At first glance, it would look like the tesla number is 10 bigger than the GME one no? Well you'd be right, however we need to remember that the number of outstanding shares for the two companies are wildly different. On Dec 17, TSLA had 905,000,000 outstanding shares, while on June 14, GME had only (assumed) 77,000,000 outstanding shares.
|
||||
|
||||
So if you put these percentage wise:
|
||||
|
||||
- TSLA: 1382452 / 905000000 * 100 = 0.1527 % of total shares were FTD
|
||||
|
||||
- GME: 105172 / 77000000 * 100 = 0.1372 % of total shares were FTD
|
||||
|
||||
So just a random day in June for GME had as many FTDs as Tesla did in its highest day ever in its history.
|
||||
|
||||
So then... the question on everyone's mind... what was GME's highest FTD day? Well you see everyone, Oct 13 2020: 3,210,148. On that date, according to ycharts, GME had 65.2M outstanding shares. I'm actually going to go with 70 mill shares as I think the 65M number is wrong. So
|
||||
|
||||
- 3210148 / 70000000 * 100 = 4.5% of total shares were FTD. THEY COULDN'T LOCATE 4.5% OF THE GOD DAMN COMPANY!
|
||||
|
||||
SEC what the fuck are you doing??? Seriously who looks at these numbers and goes like "YEP, THIS IS FINE!". Do your god damn job!
|
||||
|
||||
Sources:
|
||||
|
||||
GME FTD data <https://sec.report/fails.php?tc=36467W109>
|
||||
|
||||
TSLA FTD data <https://sec.report/fails.php?tc=TSLA>
|
||||
|
||||
GME Outstanding Share Count data: <https://ycharts.com/companies/GME/shares_outstanding>
|
||||
|
||||
TSLA Outstanding Share Count data: <https://ycharts.com/companies/TSLA/shares_outstanding>
|
||||
|
||||
No fuckery going on here people....
|
@ -0,0 +1,90 @@
|
||||
T+35 Follow Up [some general thoughts]
|
||||
======================================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/dentisttft](https://www.reddit.com/user/dentisttft/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/obng9s/t35_follow_up_some_general_thoughts/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
[Discussion 🦍](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22Discussion%20%F0%9F%A6%8D%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||
Hello everybody! Yes, I'm still here.
|
||||
|
||||
I wrote a post a couple weeks ago about T+35 FTD's. [T+35 is the one true "cycle"](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/o155a6/t35_is_the_one_true_cycle_evidence_to_back_my/)
|
||||
|
||||
I've been wanting to write a follow up post for a while, but I didn't want to write it until I had more answers. That led me down a very deep and confusing path tracking ETFs, and to be honest, I probably won't be able to get a full picture for a bit. So I'll go ahead and do a quick follow up post now.
|
||||
|
||||
Does T+35 still happen?
|
||||
|
||||
Yes. They're not always easy to spot. 6/25 had 40,000 FTDs were most likely covered at 12:20 EST. 6/17 had a 90,000 volume candle which could have easily been the next three days worth of FTDs. Remember, there is nothing forcing them to wait until the last day. This is just what they HAVE been doing. After my post got some attention, I noticed a difference in the FTD behavior. Either they wait until the last possible minute, they cover in the first minute, they cover multiple days early, etc.
|
||||
|
||||
Why is it 35 days? (technically, before the 35th day)
|
||||
|
||||
The stock gets shorted and settles into an FTD in T+2. Normally, Rule 204 would require them to close the FTD within a day or two. But on the FTD day, they sell a put giving them the "deem to own" clause of Rule 204. When they are "deemed to own" a share, they are able to wait 35 days from the *transaction date*. This is why the 34 days starts on the FTD date, not the date it was shorted like you may think.
|
||||
|
||||
If you want proof of this, there is a certain stock that reminds me of a leprechaun. It had a HUGE FTD day in early june. Next thing you know, Put OI sky rocketed. Check other less popular meme stocks and you will probably see the same thing.
|
||||
|
||||
What about ETF FTDs?
|
||||
|
||||
In my post I stated that ETF FTDs behave the same way as GME FTDs. This is only partially true. They DO get delayed 35 days. They DO NOT get covered on the 34th day following the FTD. There are details within Rule 204 that make the timing slightly different. I've spent the last couple of weeks figuring out all the nitty gritty details... but woah... it's a mess. I'd like to make a post sometime soon with my findings.
|
||||
|
||||
Why do FTDs not do much anymore?
|
||||
|
||||
It looks like they are shorting the ETFs when they have GME FTDs due and shorting GME when they have ETF FTDs due. You can see this by going 34 days from an ETF FTD. The ETF and other non meme stock in the ETF will rise from the cover but GME will stay flat. I plan on covering this more in my future ETF post. But damn, that spring is getting extremely coiled.
|
||||
|
||||
[![r/Superstonk - T+35 Follow Up [some general thoughts]](https://preview.redd.it/tzjywmtg4m871.png?width=2242&format=png&auto=webp&s=3d1b425ba9041c37465618d6181449f8d8ab3d19)](https://preview.redd.it/tzjywmtg4m871.png?width=2242&format=png&auto=webp&s=3d1b425ba9041c37465618d6181449f8d8ab3d19)
|
||||
|
||||
Heatmap of ETF FTDs (not weighted by %GME). Each ETF is colored individually so they are on their own scale.
|
||||
|
||||
The top third is the heavier ETFs. Look at those cycles. Fun stuff.
|
||||
|
||||
Why didn't the new 002 rule do anything?
|
||||
|
||||
I tried leaving a few comments to explain this, but I'm sure a lot of people didn't see it. Remember they were *already* satisfying the requirements of the old monthly rules when the new rule came into effect. The deposit for the old monthly rule was already made. I don't see any reason why they suddenly would be over budget from a daily check. The effects of 002 probably won't be seen until the next GME run up.
|
||||
|
||||
Do the FTDs even matter?
|
||||
|
||||
GME FTDs, no... ETF FTDs, yes. The problems that were coming from the high numbers of GME FTDs have moved to the ETFs. Until the ETF FTDs hit a breaking point, GME will most likely stay flat and have an occasional spike like we saw on Wednesday. The way I see it, moving the problems to ETFs only delays everything at the cost of inflating the entire market.
|
||||
|
||||
When is the next big T+35 day?
|
||||
|
||||
Friday and Tuesday look decent. But history tells me it will be a spike and then settle again. They are putting in a lot of money to keep GME from taking off.
|
||||
|
||||
What does that mean for me?
|
||||
|
||||
Keep doing what you're doing. It's building up. It's coming, probably sooner than you think. Future posts will cover this.
|
||||
|
||||
Want to see something fun? GME is repeating itself.
|
||||
|
||||
The weeks after January are currently happening again at a higher floor. Why? I don't know. It might have to do with quarterly options that have been open for a while. But I wouldn't expect anything to happen for a week or two. ** not manipulated... I swear... hehe **
|
||||
|
||||
[![r/Superstonk - T+35 Follow Up [some general thoughts]](https://preview.redd.it/cb1m05dm5m871.png?width=1097&format=png&auto=webp&s=5605fd333b0ac1d9b31c6ad16a290acd15d9202a)](https://preview.redd.it/cb1m05dm5m871.png?width=1097&format=png&auto=webp&s=5605fd333b0ac1d9b31c6ad16a290acd15d9202a)
|
||||
|
||||
What about T+21?
|
||||
|
||||
I don't know. I'm still not sure T+21 is a thing. I think there are other factors in play that ended up giving GME spikes 21 days apart. Possibly two T+35 cycles at the same time. I have reason to believe the spike in May and the two in June came from ETFs. These are the same reasons I don't think there will be much longer to wait. A couple weeks... but more on that in another post.
|
||||
|
||||
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
|
||||
|
||||
Alright, that's about all I wanted to cover as a follow up. Sorry it isn't full of juicy content. I was waiting to post until I had real answers, but it's taking longer than expected. The ETFs are the key to the puzzle and they're hitting a boiling point.
|
||||
|
||||
TL;DR:
|
||||
|
||||
- T+35 with GME FTDs still is a thing, but GME is being suppressed pretty hard right now.
|
||||
|
||||
- T+35 with ETF FTDs works, but it's not 35. It's 35 days from the puts being sold. I'll have a new post in the future with more details.
|
||||
|
||||
- The driving forces behind GME have moved into the ETFs.
|
||||
|
||||
- HFs are switching back and forth between shorting GME directly and shorting the ETFs to keep GME consistently down.
|
||||
|
||||
- I'll have a post about ETFs in the next 4-5 days.
|
||||
|
||||
Also, I made a twitter account so I can post thoughts throughout the day without needing to write a full post. I don't know how much I'll use it. <https://twitter.com/dentisttft>
|
||||
|
||||
I had to turn off most of my notifications. The best way to get a hold of me is by tagging me in a comment. It never notifies me of tags in posts... so make sure it's a comment. I try to respond to all tags.
|
||||
|
||||
Alright, pce~~~
|
||||
|
||||
- [u/dentisttft](https://www.reddit.com/u/dentisttft/)
|
@ -0,0 +1,80 @@
|
||||
Feb 24-26: failed launch attempt and proof the DTCC must be the catalyst?
|
||||
=========================================================================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/Bladeace](https://www.reddit.com/user/Bladeace/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/mvvuhp/feb_2426_failed_launch_attempt_and_proof_the_dtcc/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
[DD 👨🔬](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22DD%20%F0%9F%91%A8%E2%80%8D%F0%9F%94%AC%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||
TL;DR: This never should have gone on for this long, it's too dangerous for everyone involved. Whales tried to solve this themselves and attempted to launch the rocket in February with a gamma squeeze. This failed, so they have no choice except to fight a holding pattern until the DTCC and the feds step in. I hold because I think they are all working hard to bring me a very large bucket of tendies.
|
||||
|
||||
I think the gamma squeeze in February was an attempt to launch the rocket and begin the squeeze. The shorts foiled the attempt by recklessly flooding the market with even more naked shorts. This terrified all involved and prompted the DTCC to begin the preparations required to step in. If my speculation is accurate, actors in the market cannot instigate the squeeze (they tried and failed). So, we wait for the DTCC.
|
||||
|
||||
I wrote the below speculation because I am having a difficult time understanding why the financial institutions competing against the shorts haven't instigated the squeeze. I believe they have a clear motive to instigate the squeeze and should have done so before the situation got this far. Accordingly, I suspect the February gamma squeeze to be evidence they did make such an attempt but realized the situation was beyond their ability to resolve. I think that it is this failure that resulted in their decision to fight for a holding pattern until the cavalry arrives to put down the rogue element.
|
||||
|
||||
The February gamma squeeze
|
||||
|
||||
During February the amount of GME shares traded peaked at a mindboggling high of four times the float being traded in one day. [This](https://www.forbes.com/sites/georgecalhoun/2021/03/10/gamestop-the-second-surgeanatomy-of-a-gamma-swarm/?sh=662560a24225) article from Forbes summarizes the volume of trades:
|
||||
|
||||
[Yeah, four times the float of a large company is fucking loads.](https://preview.redd.it/lo63uje4jmu61.png?width=972&format=png&auto=webp&s=db1f700de4a32bb02dc19c9fa61181a7e8bcac1d)
|
||||
|
||||
Before this massive spike in volume, slightly more than the entire float is being traded daily. That's already ridiculous, so the trade volume is spiking from ridiculous to insane. The same article provides this chart to illustrate how sharply it rose:
|
||||
|
||||
[What. The. Fuck.](https://preview.redd.it/lzezctvhkmu61.png?width=959&format=png&auto=webp&s=860b09112f8b610dc76e81bf579248f97f6b7475)
|
||||
|
||||
Unsurprisingly, the price goes up by a lot during this period. The author of this chart argues that this is because of a gamma squeeze which is, basically, when options are used to drive price rises. The following chart supports their assertion:
|
||||
|
||||
[Yep, that's a fuck ton of options alright!](https://preview.redd.it/bsyczqiflmu61.png?width=959&format=png&auto=webp&s=9bab12f029d2deba0b09529c6b326c8ae28eb683)
|
||||
|
||||
I think the author makes a strong case for these claims. By using options, the volume of trades was driven way up very quickly. The price rose accordingly. However, the author goes on to argue that this was caused by reddit users coordinating options purchases. I'm not going to spend time discussing that claim here because I think it's absurd1.
|
||||
|
||||
1: The author argues we can multiply the impact of our buying power on the volume by up to 50 times using this method. Even multiplied by 50 times, this is far too much money being spent in far too short a period to be reddit users. It's also notable that this level of coordination would require communication and I haven't seen any posts attempting to organize a huge coordinated purchase of options. Reddit did cause a similar volume in January, but doing so was *very* public. Our ability to move money is proportional to the visibility of our responsibility; if Feburary gamma was us, every user here would know that. The article in the link is excellent, but their claim regarding reddits behavior during the Feburary gamma is unfounded.
|
||||
|
||||
The gamma squeeze as an attempt to launch the rocket
|
||||
|
||||
So, there was a gamma squeeze. I suspect this gamma squeeze was an attempt to launch the short squeeze.
|
||||
|
||||
Before I continue, I think it's important to note that the wash sales which, we suspect, are being used to artificially lower the price are distinct from the phenomenon being discussed here. In this case, the massive volume was causing rapid price rises. Unlike the wash sales, I think the volume during this gamma squeeze was caused by shares trading from one party to another *without the two parties coordinating on a desired direction of the price.* I think one party was trying to rise the price substantially while the other was trying to keep it low.
|
||||
|
||||
It might help to remember what the price charts looked like during this period. You'll all probably remember this bizarre graph:
|
||||
|
||||
[The graph my broker provides wasn't this dramatic but it still looked fucky](https://preview.redd.it/gb4sy55ynmu61.png?width=1669&format=png&auto=webp&s=c4ddece1f2c8cf16a85fd4e4dfb5804b50d32d55)
|
||||
|
||||
I think what we're seeing during this period is two high frequency traders directly competing to change the price, one trying to drive the price up by buying all the shares and the other trying to drive the price down by selling enough shares that the other can't buy them all. One party is using options to flood the market with buy orders while the other is flooding it with sell orders. These orders change the price, the buys raise the price and the sells lower it. Given how quickly this happens it looks, on the graph, like there are some points in time with no price (the vertical lines); this is because there is a large range of prices being traded at during the moment that point on the graph represents. At least, that's my understanding of the graph. Someone in the comments may clarify further, or correct an error on my part, in which case I'll edit accordingly.
|
||||
|
||||
The key point isn't actually what the graph shows anyway. What's important is that the large volume on these days is caused by two parties competing to alter the price. One party wants to raise it and one wants to lower it. The party that wants to raise the price does so by buying up a lot of shares and the party that wants to lower the price does so by selling a lot of shares. Unlike wash sales, the parties aren't cooperating so this volume isn't just the same shares going back and forth. This is why the price rises over this period - the price rise is the result of one of the parties buying shares and then not letting them back into the market.
|
||||
|
||||
I think this period in February saw massive volume because a whale attempted to buy so many shares the price would rise high enough to launch the rocket. The only way for the shorts to stop this from happening was for them to sell enough shares at low enough prices. I think they failed because the shorts sold so many shares the price rise was minimized. Let me explain a little more to help clarify, if a friendly whale buys a million options to rise the price but the shorts sell enough shares to cover those options, the price isn't going to rise. Basically, if a friendly whale was sick of this situation and wanted to launch the rocket it could do so by buying a lot of shares to drive the price up, *unless* the shorts were willing to simply flood the market to match their buying spree.
|
||||
|
||||
So, if I'm right about this, the February gamma squeeze was an attempt to launch the rocket by buying so many shares the price spiked. They tried so hard the entire float was traded nearly ten times in three days: this wasn't a small effort, they tried really hard to launch the rocket. They failed because the shorts were willing to sell as many shares as they could buy. Well, almost - they still rose the price significantly, just not enough to launch.
|
||||
|
||||
This is significant because it demonstrates just how many shorted shares team short are capable of putting into the market. We already knew they could flood the market with a lot of these fraudulent shares. I think the February gamma squeeze showed our whales that team short would simply flood the market even more if they tried to launch the rocket. The result is stalemate, the shorts can't short enough to lower the price any further and the longs can't buy enough to launch the rocket. So, we trade sideways until something changes.
|
||||
|
||||
During this stalemate the shorts wash shares to keep the price from rising and use various shenanigans to offset their failures to deliver the fabricated shares they've sold. I think this is why the volume remains high after the gamma squeeze and through March. The high volume is the shenanigans of the shorts. Over this period the DTCC puts new rules into place that incrementally clamp down on these shenanigans until, eventually, we get the low volume numbers we're seeing at the moment. I think the low volume reflects the increasingly weak position of team short.
|
||||
|
||||
Notice that this would mean that the low volume indicates team long has another opportunity to launch the rocket. I believe that they have elected not to do so after seeing what team short was willing to do during their February attempt. I think team short flooding the market with a huge number of shorted shares terrified everyone involved. The more shorted shares team short releases, the worse the problem gets for every member of the NSCC/DTCC that has to help pick up the pieces when this thing goes off. So, team long decided to abandon any attempt to launch the rocket on their own and maintained a holding pattern while pressuring the DTCC to get their house in order. Another users post, [Why We're STILL trading sideways and Why We Haven't Launched](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/mu9xed/why_were_still_trading_sideways_and_why_we_havent/), expands on why we are still waiting for launch. My addition to their commentary is that I think the Febuary gamma squeeze is what convinced team long to wait rather than attempt to launch the rocket on their own.
|
||||
|
||||
This is a precarious situation for all involved. Every day this continues team short leaks more shorted shares into the market. Every day team long waits for the DTCC to prepare risks someone doing something unexpected, like leaking to the press. The only thing worse for the DTCC than MOASS is everyone learning about it before it begins. The longer this continues the more other members of the market will know about what's happening; eventually, someone will leak it to everyone. My guess is that everyone involved wants this finished with *asap*. I think the only reason it's still going is because of how recklessly the shorts fought during the February gamma squeeze.
|
||||
|
||||
It's my suspicion that the new head of the SEC intends to resolve this *fast*. I think he knows his window to handle this his way is small. If he does this right, he can be the person who stepped in and protected everyone from a rogue element threatening an outright system failure. But, that only works if he comes in hard and gets it done quickly. The longer he waits, the more it looks like his failure rather than him stepping in to pick up his predecessors mess.
|
||||
|
||||
Relating this to the wider context
|
||||
|
||||
I think [A House of Cards - Part 1](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/mvk5dv/a_house_of_cards_part_1/) is correct, the system is overrun with phantom shares because the DTCC is essentially running a fractional reserve security market without the protections in place to ensure its fractional reserve, of any given security, doesn't all get called up at the same time. I suspect that, over time, its members have issued increasing numbers of shares which means the reserves have become less able to deliver on the sales when required. In January, one of its members was caught out by this and forced a trading halt to prevent disaster. Unfortunately, for them, this made the situation worse because retail traders didn't sell. During February they expanded their short position in an attempt to lower the price enough for them to close.
|
||||
|
||||
The expansion of their short position in February and our unwillingness to sell forced the hands of other financial institutions who were not willing to watch the shorts make the problem even worse. So, they attempted to launch the rocket with a gamma squeeze. This would have hurt every member of the financial community, but it would have stopped the shorts from causing even more damage. This was an attempt to cut off the diseased limb.
|
||||
|
||||
The shorts fought back and went further than the longs expected. To avoid launch, they flooded the market with even more shorted shares. This showed the other financial institutions that they couldn't launch the rocket and the diseased limb had gone so rogue it was willing to bring the entire system down rather than be amputated. This is why I think the February gamma squeeze is so important. I think it shows that longs *did* try to launch the rocket. Which is important, because I think they have had a motivation to do so this entire time and our theories need to take account of that motive.
|
||||
|
||||
So, they turned to the DTCC and advised them they had to sort it out. For this reason, we get a growing raft of new regulations designed to prevent this from happening again and allowing them to resolve the mess. I believe the current low volume indicates team longs are now in a position to launch the rocket if they desire. I think they are waiting because the DTCC has shown they are taking action and the longs are willing to give them a little time to prepare.
|
||||
|
||||
As this has all transpired, I think the wider financial community has begun to become aware of what is happening. I think the unusual bank activity is them preparing for this. If this is true, launch is likely imminent. I say this because no one involved wants this to make it into mainstream media before it begins. They can't stop people from knowing about it after it's begun, but they *really* don't want to give the public notice. My guess is that [this](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/mvoi4h/gme_closed_001_from_previous_day_close_this_has/) recent post is correct and we're currently looking at the final preparations in the market.
|
||||
|
||||
Summary
|
||||
|
||||
In January, the shorts were going to die so they broke the market. In February, I think the market tried to correct itself with the gamma squeeze. In March, I think the DTCC took over and began preparations to solve the situation. In April, I think the feds are in charge and the entire finance sector is preparing for the hammer to come down.
|
||||
|
||||
(This is all *very* speculative and shouldn't be treated as financial advice! Please correct me on any errors and I will alter my claims accordingly. Thank you for reading my work.)
|
@ -0,0 +1,116 @@
|
||||
Findings from my analysis of 605 data: Huge short position opened in January. Expanded in February and March. Has not been closed.
|
||||
==================================================================================================================================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/Bladeace](https://www.reddit.com/user/Bladeace/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nc1h4o/findings_from_my_analysis_of_605_data_huge_short/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
[DD 👨🔬](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22DD%20%F0%9F%91%A8%E2%80%8D%F0%9F%94%AC%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||
TA;DR: I looked at the 605 data - Citadel's short position is so huge it's distorted the order flow. It's so massive you can see it merely by looking at where the GME orders are being executed. It also shows they haven't closed.
|
||||
|
||||
TL;DR: Opening a huge naked short position requires market maker shenanigans. Leaving it unclosed requires further market maker fucketry. Both of these should be reflected in the proportion of GME shares executed at various market centers. I looked, it is. A market maker closing a massive short position should be reflected too. I looked, it isn't.
|
||||
|
||||
I have been examining the order execution data for market centers handling GME order executions, read on for my findings. Citadel appears to have taken a *massive* short position in Gamestop in January. It looks like they continued to expand this short position via NASDAQ during February and March. They do not seem to have closed this position.
|
||||
|
||||
Opening a massive naked short position in a very short period of time requires abusing market maker privileges. Doing this would result in distorting the order flow. Market centers where the shorting is taking place would see a spike in the proportion of the shares they were executing for the security being shorted. A market maker closing a massive position would cause the opposite. So, if Citadel has opened a huge short position and not closed it we should see evidence of this in the order flow. I looked at the 605 reports and found exactly this.
|
||||
|
||||
According to my analysis of the order flow, Citadel has opened a huge short position, very quickly, in January, expanded it since then, and hasn't closed it. Please read the following and come to your own conclusions on the quality of my analysis. This is not financial advice. I am an ape on a large dose of Ritalin.
|
||||
|
||||
Important background information on the special privileges of market makers when shorting *(OK TO SKIP)*:
|
||||
|
||||
When opening a short position in your capacity as a market maker you do so by covering a buy order with your own capital. So, an order comes in for a security and you cover it, which is a way of saying 'yes, I'll sell that stock at X price' even though you don't already have a seller lined up to sell the share at that price. This is not uncommon, it's definitely not illegal, and it's very helpful to the market. In fact, one of the reasons market makers exist is to sell shares they haven't yet lined up a seller for. This allows the market to flow smoothly as sales can happen quickly. It's expected that the market maker will line up a seller for the share you brought from them very soon afterwards (often within seconds). However, they are not required to do so. Instead of lining up a seller for the purchase you just made from them, the market maker can take on a short position for that share (they are 'short' the share they sold you, so you essentially have an IOU from them).
|
||||
|
||||
When shorting in this manner, the market maker gets special privileges under regulation [SHO §§ 242.200 - 242.204](https://www.law.cornell.edu/cfr/text/17/part-242) which allow them to short in cases where others cannot. Regulation [242.203](https://www.law.cornell.edu/cfr/text/17/242.203) allows market makers to be exempt from some restrictions when engaging in market making activities and regulation [242.204](https://www.law.cornell.edu/cfr/text/17/242.204) allows some leniency for failures to deliver when the transaction was for market making purposes. Essentially, the regulations covering short sales provide some leeway for short selling while market making. This is good, in theory, because it keeps the market flowing smoothly.
|
||||
|
||||
The SEC explains the importance of market makers shorting [here](https://www.sec.gov/investor/pubs/regsho.htm) where they explain "market makers must sell a security to a buyer even when there are temporary shortages of that security available in the market". See the SEC link for a further explanation, they do a fair job of explaining it in section II of that link. The key point is that naked short sales by market makers are not an accident, they are a feature of the market.
|
||||
|
||||
The MOASS theory *(OK TO SKIP)*:
|
||||
|
||||
Citadel has opened a *huge* short position in GameStop and hasn't closed it. The position was large in 2020, but expanded significantly in January of 2021 and continued to expand during February and March (I do not discuss any points after March as my data ends there). This short position is so large that it is multiple times the outstanding shares. Opening such a large short position, so quickly, requires that most of the short positions are naked.
|
||||
|
||||
This is the theory I set out to test - has anyone opened a large naked short position during January and then expanded it during February and March?
|
||||
|
||||
Order flow data *(OK TO SKIP)*:
|
||||
|
||||
[SEC rule 605](https://www.sec.gov/rules/final/34-43590.htm) requires market centers to release data on the orders they execute. This data excludes most retail sales and multiple forms of conditional sales. However, it does include a substantial portion of the volume, enough to give us information on which market center is executing orders for a particular security during a given month. Crucially, for my purposes, it allows us to identify broad trends in the order flow between these market centers. In most cases, this data is not very helpful because it is missing most of the interesting information (for example, it won't distinguish between short and long sales). However, in my case it's perfect because I do not want to rely on any information except the volume - I don't want my findings to rely on Citadel accurately reporting anything else.
|
||||
|
||||
It's worth stressing that *rule 605 data excludes most retail orders*. This is important for us because we already know Citadel is handling most GME retail orders. The short position Citadel has, supposedly, opened is so huge that the distortion in order flow caused would extend beyond retail orders, which makes 605 data the perfect place to look.
|
||||
|
||||
Order flow data and the MOASS theory *(READ THIS)*:
|
||||
|
||||
The MOASS theory isn't just about a short position, it's about a *huge* short position. So huge that it can only have been created by a market maker abusing their naked shorting privileges. This would require them to sell the security they are shorting for a cheaper price than other sellers on the market at a large scale. Accordingly, more of the orders for the security in question would be executed by the market maker doing the shorting.
|
||||
|
||||
In most cases the proportion of orders being executed is going to remain fairly stable because the selling pressure is going to be widely dispersed. If a share is being sold for X price at one market center, it'll be sold at a similar enough price at the other market centers too. Sellers will gravitate towards the market center with the best price, so the prices remain almost identical. However, if one of the market center's is driving the selling pressure by selling for a cheaper price than everyone else, the other market centers won't be getting sell orders low enough to compete and they will lose out on the volume. Accordingly, if the number of short positions being opened at a particular market center spiked during January, we should see the proportion of orders being executed at that market center spike too.
|
||||
|
||||
The same is true for closing a massive short position. If a market center is buying up a huge amount of shares, there will be a drop in the number of buy orders they execute (because they're buying the shares themselves rather than selling them to others). The market center will also be reaching out to other centers to buy from them, which will raise the proportion of volume to those centers.
|
||||
|
||||
So, my prediction is simple: if a market maker is opening a massive amount of naked shorts very quickly, they will have a higher proportion of the order execution volume. Conversely, if a market maker is closing a massive amount of naked shorts very quickly, they will have a lower proportion of the order execution volume.
|
||||
|
||||
How the data should look in the three possible cases:
|
||||
|
||||
*Hypothesis 1* - Citadel shorted GME a lot in January and then continued to do so through February and March:
|
||||
|
||||
1. The proportion of orders being executed by Citadel will spike in January.
|
||||
|
||||
2. The proportion of orders being executed by Citadel will not go below the baseline in February or March.
|
||||
|
||||
3. The proportion of orders being executed by NADAQ or CBOE will spike in February and March (but probably not at both centers).
|
||||
|
||||
4. The NADAQ or CBOE spike, if it exists, will be accompanied by an anomalous number of their orders being executed outside of their venue (an artifact of an abrupt shift in order flow without adequate preparation by the market maker responsible).
|
||||
|
||||
*Hypothesis 2* - Citadel opened a large short position in January and then closed it during February:
|
||||
|
||||
1. The proportion of orders being executed by Citadel will spike in January.
|
||||
|
||||
2. The proportion of orders being executed by Citadel will drop below the baseline in February.
|
||||
|
||||
3. The proportion of orders being executed by the other exchanges will all rise, with Citadel's lost share being shared approximately equally (as it buys up all it can).
|
||||
|
||||
*Hypothesis 3* - Citadel opened a large short position in January and then closed it in January or they never opened a large short position at all:
|
||||
|
||||
1. The proportion of orders being executed by Citadel will remain at baseline levels.
|
||||
|
||||
Notes on Citadel and NASDAQ/CBOE spikes or drops:
|
||||
|
||||
MOASS theory implies that Citadel would have been absolutely hammered in January during the massive influx of buying pressure and the threat of Melvin being forced into closing their position and beginning a squeeze. Accordingly, they would have been drawing all of the order volume to them by shorting all the orders they could to mitigate the upwards price pressure. This would result in the proportion of orders executed at Citadel spiking during January.
|
||||
|
||||
MOASS theory implies that Citadel would have been expanding their short position in February and March while also avoiding their delivery obligations for the shorts opened in January. Expanding their short positions and opening new short positions to defer existing short positions can be accomplished by utilising two market centers with Citadel operating as a market maker in both. Essentially, Citadel could use its own market center and its privileges as market maker (for GME) at a second market center to make a market for itself. This would allow it to continue opening short positions while also shuffling existing short positions through the market. This would result in the proportion of orders executed at CBOE or NASDAQ to spike during February and March. I suspect Citadel would use either CBOE or NASDAQ for this because they are a market maker at both. I do not think they would use the NYSE for this as that exchange allows its market makers less latitude (and makes them compete against one another to a greater extent). NASDAQ is the most likely candidate as, prior to 2020, it does not execute many GME orders which allows Citadel a freer reign over any such orders that suddenly begin coming through that center.
|
||||
|
||||
MOASS theory implies that Citadel would not have been covering their short position throughout this period. Closing a huge short position would cause a drop in the orders being executed at that center (because the center is buying instead of selling and will buy from other centers too). Accordingly, we should not see Citadel's proportion of order execution drop below the baseline levels.
|
||||
|
||||
Proportion of GME shares executed at market centers *(READ THIS)*:
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/anepludcx0z61.png?width=713&format=png&auto=webp&s=0f8e55d6589f05bc2d9b1968d75e757f07a66c65)
|
||||
|
||||
As you can see, the proportion of shares being executed at Citadel's market center spikes in January, which is consistent with hypothesis 1 and inconsistent with hypothesis 3. The proportion of shares being executed at NASDAQ spikes in February and March which is also consistent with hypothesis 1. There is no drop below baseline in the proportion of shares executed at Citadel's market center, which is inconsistent with hypothesis 2.
|
||||
|
||||
The proportion of GME shares being executed by the major market centers, as reported under rule 605 data, is consistent with what we would expect if a market center were opening a huge short position in January and then using their market maker status at a second market center to expand and obscure that short position during February and March.
|
||||
|
||||
Related speculation:
|
||||
|
||||
Notice the relationship between the drops/spikes in proportion of shares executed at Citadel and NASDAQ. This is consistent with Citadel being the market maker for GME at both. I suspect that the sharp changes in where these orders are being executed reflects Citadel's attempts to open, expand, and manage their short position. The best places for them to do this are their own market center and NASDAQ, which matches the changes in order flow. I am hoping to gain access to historical NASDAQ level 2 data for this period which may show which of their designated market makers is responsible for their GME executions during this time period. Unfortunately I do not have this data yet, but I have reached out to NASDAQ and others who may be able to provide me with this data soon.
|
||||
|
||||
Proportion of covered shares executed at alternative venues *(OK TO SKIP):*
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/b1pefghhx0z61.png?width=686&format=png&auto=webp&s=af51e5492c62c779eb9882f8ebdae69ffb1ea147)
|
||||
|
||||
As you can see, the spike of shares being executed at NASDAQ in February is accompanied by a spike in the proportion of orders being covered by NASDAQ but executed at another venue. This is consistent with hypothesis 1, it may indicate the orders being executed by a market maker abruptly moving their execution of a large number of trades from one center to another.
|
||||
|
||||
Related speculation:
|
||||
|
||||
This may be related to an attempt by Citadel to market make for themselves and push the price lower. Fighting back the February gamma may also be a factor.
|
||||
|
||||
Proportion of shares reported under rule 605 compared to total volume *(OK TO SKIP)*:
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/k7e578csx0z61.png?width=817&format=png&auto=webp&s=e9ee738f2c85938b38cc1dfccd39d05e662318c0)
|
||||
|
||||
I am using 605 data because I believe it to be the most reliable data we have access to. However, it is possible the 605 data could be misreported. Conveniently, we can check to see whether such misreporting is likely by comparing the number of shares being reported under the 605 data to the overall volume for the same period. If there were a sudden drop in the proportion of the GME volume reported under 605, it suggests there may be a reporting error. As you can see, I found no evidence of such an error. This doesn't mean there wasn't misreporting, but it allows me to continue regarding the 605 data as the most reliable we have access to.
|
||||
|
||||
Thank you for reading
|
||||
|
||||
Thank you for reading my analysis. As I mentioned above, I have more data coming. I have also reached out to relevant experts who might allow me to expand, clarify, or correct my findings. I will update this post accordingly. There may be a follow up post if I have additional findings worth sharing.
|
||||
|
||||
*Please be aware that this is not financial advice and all conclusions I have given are tentative. My findings are limited by my own shortcomings, which are numerous.*
|
@ -0,0 +1,86 @@
|
||||
Reverse Repos Showing Possible Evidence of Forced Liquidations
|
||||
==============================================================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/AcedVector](https://www.reddit.com/user/AcedVector/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nlxom6/reverse_repos_showing_possible_evidence_of_forced/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
[DD 👨🔬](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22DD%20%F0%9F%91%A8%E2%80%8D%F0%9F%94%AC%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||
Pre-DD Message:
|
||||
|
||||
Hello you beautiful apes! Before I get into this DD I just wanted to say that I am so proud of everyone for holding against these wall street crooks. We're finally starting to see some change happen and more and more people are starting to catch on to how fucked of a position the hedgies are really in right now, and it genuinely makes me happy that we've come from just some stupid retail investors looking for a quick buck to an educated mastermind of apes who scour the sub for DD and knowledge. With all that said, let's get into the DD!
|
||||
|
||||
The Good Stuff:
|
||||
|
||||
As I myself was scouring this sub for info I had come across an interesting [post](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nlu3wb/coincidental_link_in_decreasing_parties_for/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3) by [u/qwert4the1](https://www.reddit.com/user/qwert4the1/) (show them some love!) who had found a connection between the price surges in GME and the amount of counterparties within the reverse repo agreements. Specifically, they had mentioned that on days when there was a significant price increase compared to the norm (today, May 26th, would be a good example), the amount of counterparties who were accepted in the reverse repo agreements the day of or the day after had *decreased*. Now, why is this incredibly important if this connection holds true and how can it point to some interesting conclusions? To understand that, we have to understand the main prerequisite to these repo reverse agreements, which is according to the Fed FAQ page:
|
||||
|
||||
[An 80 billion max per counterparty, hm?](https://preview.redd.it/pv3jripp9k171.png?width=465&format=png&auto=webp&s=9f6e860076f899e8ad04354d7b02514dad450106)
|
||||
|
||||
We also have to understand that in these overnight reverse repo agreements, the Desk (The Open Market Trading Desk the Fed uses for these transactions) sells treasury securities that it holds in the System Open Market Account (SOMA) to these eligible counterparties. What that means is that the aggregate counterparty amount of treasury securities that can be lended overnight is limited by the amount that is held in SOMA. As of May 19th, here are these amounts:
|
||||
|
||||
[Take note of the 4 TRILLION that it has in Treasury Notes and Bonds.](https://preview.redd.it/1lp15o74dk171.png?width=962&format=png&auto=webp&s=6fce3b40c66599b746de3b854f70768facf85ea3)
|
||||
|
||||
So in other words, there are 2 limitations to take note of for overnight RRP agreements:
|
||||
|
||||
1. 80 billion max per counterparty
|
||||
|
||||
2. 4 trillion held in SOMA
|
||||
|
||||
Why are these limitations important to take note of? Well, because the logical conclusion to draw is that the Fed uses these limitations to some extent in order determine whether they should accept or reject a counterparty in the agreement. This leads into why I feel the connection between the counterparties and the price surges in GME are important, because in my mind there's only a couple of explanations as to why the amount of counterparties in the ON RRP agreement would *decrease* as the price in GME *surges*:
|
||||
|
||||
1. The aggregate amount treasury securities lent to the counterparties in these agreements are reaching an uncomfortable amount so they are choosing their counterparties more carefully.
|
||||
|
||||
2. Marge is calling some of the counterparties that could potentially have the treasury bonds be used as collateral for short positions in some certain stocks ( perhaps GME? ;) )and are forcefully liquidating them, thus they don't need to be part of the agreement. Side note: (If some of the counterparties are banks, then the hedge funds that banks are potentially lending these treasury bonds/notes to for collateral could be margin called and forcefully liquidated, thus the bank having no reason to ask for the bonds does not take part in the agreement.)
|
||||
|
||||
3. A mix of the two
|
||||
|
||||
Conclusion:
|
||||
|
||||
Here's why I think we might be seeing both *forced liquidations* as well as *more selectivity from the Desk* in lending treasury securities, given that the connection between the counterparties and price surges in GME is correct:
|
||||
|
||||
- The 1st point alone wouldn't be enough of a reason to necessarily be more selective in choosing counterparties, as the current amount being lent (450 billion as of today) is about less than a quarter of the amount of the treasury notes/bonds in SOMA, and there are more than FOURTY counterparties as of the latest agreement.
|
||||
|
||||
- If there are forceful liquidations happening among the counterparties(which are most likely banks), it serves as a threefold hit:
|
||||
|
||||
1. Less counterparties would be needed in these agreements, lowering the counterparty amount but raising the average amount of treasury bonds/notes lent per counterparty.
|
||||
|
||||
2. With the average amount lent per existing counterparty increasing, the Fed has to take more into account what the counterparties are using these treasury bonds/notes for.
|
||||
|
||||
3. If most of the existing counterparties are banks, who lend these treasury bonds/notes to hedge funds for collateral in a short position, and they learn the banks they have lent to beforehand but not anymore (from hedgies being forcefully liquidated) are being connected to margin calls and forced liquidations, the Fed would be less inclined to lend these bonds/notes to the banks currently in the agreement as time goes on as it would become more risky to do so.
|
||||
|
||||
- These three points working in tandem with each other would lead to the Fed having a strong enough reason to be more selective to counterparties in future agreements, while also serving as a explanation for liquidations being a partial cause to the decrease in the amount of counterparties as as result of a GME price surge.
|
||||
|
||||
Sources:
|
||||
|
||||
[FAQs: Overnight Reverse Repurchase Agreement Operational Exercise - FEDERAL RESERVE BANK of NEW YORK (newyorkfed.org)](https://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/rrp_faq)
|
||||
|
||||
[Repo and Reverse Repo Agreements - FEDERAL RESERVE BANK of NEW YORK (newyorkfed.org)](https://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/domestic-market-operations/monetary-policy-implementation/repo-reverse-repo-agreements)
|
||||
|
||||
[Repo and Reverse Repo Operations - Federal Reserve Bank of New York (newyorkfed.org)](https://apps.newyorkfed.org/markets/autorates/tomo-results-display?SHOWMORE=TRUE&startDate=01/01/2000&enddate=01/01/2000)
|
||||
|
||||
[System Open Market Account Holdings of Domestic Securities - FEDERAL RESERVE BANK of NEW YORK (newyorkfed.org)](https://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/soma-holdings)
|
||||
|
||||
As always, thank you for reading my DDs you guys. I will try to hang in the comments for edits as well if anything. :)
|
||||
|
||||
Edit: 1.8k likes!! Holy mackerel thank you guys I appreciate your support very much. 🤠🙏
|
||||
|
||||
Edit 2: WOW you guys are blowing this post out of the water! Thanks for 7k likes everybody! :)
|
||||
|
||||
Edit 3: I would like to point out some amazing counterpoints to this DD in the comments, as I feel it is always important to address both sides of the argument. No DD is perfect(mine certainly isn't) so I would like to thank you guys for bringing these points up:
|
||||
|
||||
1. Why use bonds/notes as collateral when they can just use cash when it comes to short positions in stocks?
|
||||
|
||||
2. If the Fed has been more selective in ON RRP agreements, wouldn't it be showing in their acceptance rate (which has always been 100%)
|
||||
|
||||
3. Correlation does not equal causation, the GME price surge doesn't necessarily have to 100% be connected to a decrease in the counterparties.
|
||||
|
||||
I'll admit, I don't have much of a rebuttal to these as they are solid points, and I appreciate you guys bringing it up because it helps me keep more things in mind to create stronger, more effective DD in the future.
|
||||
|
||||
Edit 4: A fellow ape in the comments gave a link to the list of eligible counterparties for RRP agreements:
|
||||
|
||||
<https://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/rrp_counterparties>
|
||||
|
||||
Most if not all of these counterparties are banks, so it lends credence to the idea that banks would be lending these treasury bonds to hedgefunds, as well as the banks themselves needing bonds as well (since there is a lot of cash but not collateral in the bonds market at the moment)
|
@ -0,0 +1,54 @@
|
||||
The guaranteed short squeeze trigger: The NFT/Crypto/Digital Dividend
|
||||
=====================================================================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/integ3r_p0sitron](https://www.reddit.com/user/integ3r_p0sitron/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nmd7cr/the_guaranteed_short_squeeze_trigger_the/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
[Education 👨🏫 | Data 🔢](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22Education%20%F0%9F%91%A8%E2%80%8D%F0%9F%8F%AB%20%7C%20Data%20%F0%9F%94%A2%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||
Others have pointed this out, but it seems there's still a lack of awareness or realization of how serious this is.
|
||||
|
||||
The crypto dividend is NOT a joke.
|
||||
|
||||
There is one PROVEN way to trigger the short squeeze and it was done by Overstock last year. In 8. march 2020 OSTK traded at around $3 per share. After the crypto dividend was released the stock soared to $120. While the crypto dividend itself, which you received 10 per share soared to over 8 dollars per tZero.
|
||||
|
||||
Why it works:
|
||||
|
||||
When a hedgie shorts a stock, he borrows it through the broker from its real owner and sells it. Because the one who purchases it believes he is also an owner, a single share has 2 owners. When a company then pays a dividend. Both owners expect a dividend, yet the company only pays dividend to one owner because the broker only holds 1 real share. The dividend for the fake share is paid out of the shorters pocket to make the whole system function.
|
||||
|
||||
If gamestop pays a Crypto / NFT / Digital dividend, then in order for the system to continue, the shorter will have to find and acquire this NFT dividend and give it to the guy he borrowed the GME share from. However, this is literally impossible. NFTs are non-fungible. There is simply no way for him to acquire it or something equivalent because only holders of GME will get it. This means the broker will have no choice but to force all the shorts to exit their positions before the Ex. Dividend, triggering the short squeeze.
|
||||
|
||||
TL;DR:
|
||||
|
||||
All that is necessary to trigger the squeeze, is for the gamestop NFT team to make a meme ape or diamond hands or rocket NFT artwork and hand it out as a property dividend to shareholders. This will automatically trigger the squeeze. So please meme the NFT dividend into reality.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/q67cuc42ep171.png?width=1016&format=png&auto=webp&s=04e6b6031037d7976e242b8a50d129a68f6a2cea)
|
||||
|
||||
EDIT: Thanks for all the awards and attention. It falls to you to to keep the dream alive of the digital dividend. Some common questions I've seen:
|
||||
|
||||
How will I get the dividend? How will it work?
|
||||
|
||||
There are many ways to skin a cat here, so the simple answer is don't worry about it until it is actually going to happen. I've seen someone say that for overstock their broker held it until they transferred it to their own account on a tradable exchange (since the broker didn't deal with cryptocurrencies). The logistics aren't complicated. Here is one hypothetical way: You hold the stonk until the ex. dividend date, that means you will receive the dividend. GME issues dividend to stockbrokers who are holding the share on your behalf, this means the broker will have to create cryptowallets to hold the payout (this is not a complicated process, don't worry), it is then the brokers responsibility to make sure you can get it from them and you will need your own wallet (again not complicated). **"***What about gas fees?"* Yes, this is a problem right now but there are ways around it. They could use a layer 2 solution, or they could use a different blockchain, basically if there's a will here there's a way.
|
||||
|
||||
WTF? An NFT can't be a dividend.
|
||||
|
||||
Yes it can. Pretty much anything can be a dividend. It is called a property dividend.
|
||||
|
||||
Nuance between an NFT dividend and a Crypto dividend
|
||||
|
||||
If gamestop minted a GME token that is essentially a GMECoin which you use as a currency, then it is fungible as opposed to an NFT which is non-fungible. It will trigger the squeeze but will be less effective each time they pay out such a dividend because once it is in circulation, hedgies can buy it off the market to maintain a short position. If you got an NFT artwork however, you would get a personal artwork with a unique ID that signifies it as the specific artwork you received as a dividend for the stock you held. It cannot really be exchanged for any other and each time the company pays such a dividend it would be unique so a hedgie can't buy one of the older NFT artworks and pay it to you as a dividend to stay in a short position. *"**But these artworks that we receive will all pretty much have the same value so TECHNICALLY they'll be fungible"* This is entirely subjective. Lets say you received a Rare Pepe artwork as an NFT dividend and you could use that rare pepe in a video game, then that rare pepe will be the specific rare pepe that you personally used to beat the game, win a tournament or whatever. That would make it non-fungible in the eyes of some. If you like the NFT that you got, well then it's non-fungible. If you wouldn't trade your NFT for someone elses even though they are mostly the same, well then they're still not fungible. Wouldn't you want the NFT that DFV received as his digital dividend? It can't be any other. Also, each time there's a dividend payment, It can be a different NFT set, which means hedgies will NEVER be able to get them on the market before it is paid out meaning shorts can be squeezed for ever, again and again.
|
||||
|
||||
What happens if the broker refuses to margin call the shorts and refuses to give you the divvy?
|
||||
|
||||
I would imagine that they could be sued. If you own the share, that entitles you to the divvy.
|
||||
|
||||
Can they weasel out of this somehow?
|
||||
|
||||
The brilliance of the crypto divvy is that it is a checkmate move. There are no tricks they can pull at the DTCC or the OCC or whatever, no accounting games they can pull, no fake shares or NFTs they can pull out of thin air to stay in a short position. When you're checkmated, the game is over. The crypto divvy bypasses ALL of the institutions. If the institutions are the chess pieces protecting the hedgie king, the crypto divvy is the orbital strike on the king directly. The divvy is also genius because it encourages people to hold. You want the divvy right? Well then you gotta hold.
|
||||
|
||||
Ok so hedgie has to close before ex. dividend, can't he short the top after the squeeze and manipulate the stock down again?
|
||||
|
||||
Gamestop can simply promise to release another NFT dividend and hedgie will have to buy all the memes all over again. And again, and again until he learns his lesson.
|
@ -0,0 +1,174 @@
|
||||
Clearing up the Fed Reverse Repos and What it Could Indicate
|
||||
============================================================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/c-digs](https://www.reddit.com/user/c-digs/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nmxmri/clearing_up_the_fed_reverse_repos_and_what_it/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
[Possible DD 👨🔬](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22Possible%20DD%20%F0%9F%91%A8%E2%80%8D%F0%9F%94%AC%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||
EDIT: [u/CalamariAce](https://www.reddit.com/u/CalamariAce/) shared a great video which summarizes a similar conclusion that does a great job of explaining it: <https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AMgUlW7zSzg#t=950>
|
||||
|
||||
First and foremost, more than ever, before you read the rest of this post:
|
||||
|
||||
I am not a financial advisor and do not interpret anything written below as financial advice.
|
||||
|
||||
I think that nearly every post on the Fed RRP and the increasing amounts has been interpreting this data incorrectly and understanding why it is happening could be very important in understanding the events in the upcoming days/weeks/months.
|
||||
|
||||
The lightbulb moment happened for me when I read [u/HODLTheLineMyFriend](https://www.reddit.com/user/HODLTheLineMyFriend/) 's post: [Reverse Repo Overnight Lending Chart](https://www.reddit.com/r/DDintoGME/comments/nmcn1e/reverse_repo_overnight_lending_chart_update_for/) post from yesterday.
|
||||
|
||||
User [u/wehadmagnets](https://www.reddit.com/u/wehadmagnets/) posted snippets and a reference to [a Financial Times article](https://www.ft.com/content/cdec7f2e-6129-412c-b118-8906a2a0f92f) that drew my attention.
|
||||
|
||||
I post the TL;DR points of interest below and highlight the key points:
|
||||
|
||||
- Today's Reverse Repo was the largest ever
|
||||
|
||||
- "Investors" (more than just banks) are seeking places to park cash, as other 'safe' places are drying up and/or having zero or negative rates
|
||||
|
||||
- "It is also not over yet." -- analyst at Oxford Economics
|
||||
|
||||
- Cash reserves ballooning due to "the Fed's purchases of $120bn of Treasuries and agency mortgage-backed securities each month"
|
||||
|
||||
- Money-market funds are getting swamped with people's cash (<speculation>flight from equities?</speculation>)
|
||||
|
||||
- Fed is trying to avoid negative rates in money market
|
||||
|
||||
- No one thinks it's over
|
||||
|
||||
- Fed may have to raise interest rates on RRP or reserve balances in member banks to keep the federal funds rates from going lower (at 0.06 on target of 0.0-0.25)
|
||||
|
||||
This is when it clicked for me and my subsequent discussion with [u/Criand](https://www.reddit.com/u/Criand/) helped clarify why I think the RRPs are increasing.
|
||||
|
||||
Understanding assets versus liabilities for a commercial bank
|
||||
|
||||
A few weeks back, I was watching Gary Gensler's MIT series on Blockchain.
|
||||
|
||||
*(Aside: if you have any interest in currency, economics, finance, technology, or banking, I strongly recommend the series because Gensler breaks down complex topics into a very easy to digest format. The series is highly recommended because it will give you a whole new perspective on currency, fiat currency, the gold standard, etc.****)*
|
||||
|
||||
In [the second lecture](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5auv_xrvoJk), I remembered he said something that caught my attention:
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/flr1sh3j8v171.png?width=778&format=png&auto=webp&s=e5847fc0983eb936712fab9768967e9378a9b2ff)
|
||||
|
||||
A recommended video if you are at all curious to really understand the gold standard, fiat currency, economics, ledgers, banking, and finance
|
||||
|
||||
[At 51:42](https://youtu.be/5auv_xrvoJk?t=3102), he starts a discussion about fiat currency and ledgers. Of currency, he states:
|
||||
|
||||
> It represents central bank liabilities and that's important. It's a liability of a central bank it's not an asset. It's their liability side...There's also a second form of money and that's when you make a deposit in a bank that's a liability of a commercial bank.
|
||||
|
||||
[At 54:22 he says](https://youtu.be/5auv_xrvoJk?t=3262):
|
||||
|
||||
> But it is a liability on the books and records. so it is a matter of accounting in double-entry bookkeeping.
|
||||
|
||||
The entire discussion starting from 51:42 is fantastic and I strongly urge everyone to take the time to watch it.
|
||||
|
||||
On the other hand, government securities are considered an asset and not a liability. [This article does a great job of breaking it down](https://courses.lumenlearning.com/wm-macroeconomics/chapter/banking-profits-and-losses-name/):
|
||||
|
||||
> For a bank, the assets are the financial instruments that either the bank is holding (its reserves) or those instruments where other parties owe money to the bank---like loans made by the bank and U.S. government securities, such as U.S. Treasury bonds purchased by the bank.
|
||||
>
|
||||
> When bank customers deposit money into a checking account, savings account, or a certificate of deposit, the bank views these deposits as liabilities. After all, the bank owes these deposits to its customers, and are obligated to return the funds when the customers wish to withdraw their money. In the example shown in Figure 1, the Safe and Secure Bank holds $10 million in deposits.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/eq8mzoenzu171.jpg?width=757&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=1c69c7eca4829a6ec4ab98371ce1b3193e223f82)
|
||||
|
||||
Notice the assets on the left include US Government securities and the liabilities on the right represent deposits or customer cash.
|
||||
|
||||
So why would a bank want to purchase Treasuries?
|
||||
|
||||
This is the fundamental question and the answer is really simple and where the dots finally connected for me: every single night, they are accumulating more and more customer deposits in cash or cash equivalent accounts relative to the assets on their balance sheet and this is throwing their bookkeeping out of whack.
|
||||
|
||||
To make up for this, every single day they need to wipe these liabilities off of their books and to do this, they use the RRPs to exchange them for assets in the form of Treasuries because it's "free" at the moment. The amount they are swapping does not represent the amount of cash deposits they have, but rather the amount needed to balance their liabilities to their assets (and it may not be a 1:1 ratio; may be some other ratio that they need to adhere to).
|
||||
|
||||
[u/Criand](https://www.reddit.com/u/Criand/) asked a very important question in our discussion:
|
||||
|
||||
Why overnight notes and not longer term?
|
||||
|
||||
Because they need the cash back the next day for operations. If a customer withdraws the cash or uses the cash to enter into another transaction, they need to have it in their ledger.
|
||||
|
||||
So every night, the banks are wiping this liability off of their books by converting them into assets in the form of Treasuries. Then the very next day, they swap it back for cash because they need the cash for normal operations.
|
||||
|
||||
Rinse and repeat each day until the cash deposits start to decrease relative to their assets(hold this thought).
|
||||
|
||||
What does this mean for apes?
|
||||
|
||||
I'm going to repeat this again: I am not a financial advisor and not a single one of you should construe this as financial advice.
|
||||
|
||||
About three weeks ago, I moved all of my wife's 403b and my kids' 529s into cash. This means I parked the gains in money market accounts *and now it's a liability for my bank*. (Again, I am not implying that any of you should do this, only providing background for how I connected the dots.)
|
||||
|
||||
This is where bullet 5 up above turned the lightbulb on for me: what if there is a huge wave of capital flight from equities into money market accounts? What if this is what is throwing off the ledgers of these banks? What if all of the wealthy and those "in the know" already know what is coming and are converting their assets into liabilities on the ledgers of the banks by moving their accounts to cash in the form of money market accounts?
|
||||
|
||||
The capital flight from equities has started and this is what we are seeing reflected with the Fed RRP. This could be the clearest signal that there is anticipation of a big downward crash. The reason this continues unabated and grows is because this is all by the books and precisely what this mechanism is designed to do: soak up liability on the books of the commercial banks. It's just that in this case, those liabilities are customer deposits which are accumulating in money market accounts.
|
||||
|
||||
But the market has been green?
|
||||
|
||||
This is speculation at this point, but I think it's really simple.
|
||||
|
||||
Two weeks ago, I finally started to dump the remaining securities I was holding as I converted everything to cash. I only had F, GM, and GE left. Then this week, all three have had absolutely stellar returns(all the more reason you should not take any of this as financial advice because I left thousands in gains on the table by paperhanding F, GM, and GE). What gives? I am guessing that there is a market-wide pump and dump happening right now where banks are basically finding new bagholders before everything dives.
|
||||
|
||||
The preceding two weeks of red in the market had three purposes:
|
||||
|
||||
1. Banks needed to capture some gains and liquidity
|
||||
|
||||
2. Create the illusion of a pullback and "value" to find new bagholders
|
||||
|
||||
3. Driving up the price of equities is also a mechanism for increasing their asset to liability ratio at least temporarily
|
||||
|
||||
The above is purely speculation and do not manage your portfolio and your life savings based on any of my bullshit speculation; do your own DD and come to your own conclusions. I emphasize again that there are two ways for them to fix their ledgers: swap cash deposits for Treasuries or somehow increase the value of their assets. If it's the latter, we could see the start of another bull run and I could be completely wrong; I literally have no idea.
|
||||
|
||||
Is it really that simple?
|
||||
|
||||
Look, I'm a big fan of Occam's Razor. It's really that simple.
|
||||
|
||||
1. Bank customers are converting their investments to cash or the value of the assets they are holding are decreasing relative to the deposits
|
||||
|
||||
2. Cash deposits are a liability on the books of commercial banks
|
||||
|
||||
3. Every day, they need to balance their liabilities with their assets
|
||||
|
||||
4. As the cash builds up, they need a mechanism to convert them to an asset
|
||||
|
||||
5. But they also need to be able to easily convert it back to cash for normal operations the next day; they need an asset that is highly liquid
|
||||
|
||||
6. The Fed RRP operation is a free way to do this and balance their books
|
||||
|
||||
7. Every single one of the counterparties is now carrying an excess of cash because customers are pulling out of equities OR the value of their assets are decreasing (loans and CMBS are both "assets" for a bank)
|
||||
|
||||
I am firmly in the camp that there is nothing nefarious going on with the Fed RRPs; it's really as simple as the banks wiping the liabilities off of their books at night and getting back the cash the next day.
|
||||
|
||||
What one *should* be concerned about and start pondering is *why* they are in a state of having excess deposits *relative to their assets*.
|
||||
|
||||
Remember that thought I asked you to hold: the linchpin is that they must balance their assets and liabilities on their ledgers. So this Fed RRP ballooning indicates that there is a severe imbalance which they are correcting with the RRP. Either their cash deposits are surging, their assets (like loans and CMBS) are dropping, or a bit of both is happening.
|
||||
|
||||
What about the previous periods of high activity in 2014-2017?
|
||||
|
||||
If you look at the charts, this has occurred previously as well. Notably in 2014 - 2017. But I think that this is relatively easy to understand.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/c99f25db4v171.png?width=528&format=png&auto=webp&s=e3673edb823f072a73e8d1adaccfebc83c610d7f)
|
||||
|
||||
Yellow and blue text are mine. There is a high volume of customer deposits on the ledgers of the banks entering and exiting the 2016 election cycle. Then we've had a tremendous run in equities since 2017 so banks have had less cash to balance.
|
||||
|
||||
What is unique is that this buildup right now is so massive and does not correspond to typical times when a bank would need to balance their ledger.
|
||||
|
||||
This daily increasing amount means that every single day, more and more of their customers are moving their deposits to cash or their assets are losing value or some mix of both.
|
||||
|
||||
TA;DR analogy to [u/rocketseeker](https://www.reddit.com/u/rocketseeker/)
|
||||
|
||||
Let's say you're running drugs and you obviously deal with a lot of cash.
|
||||
|
||||
Holding onto all of this cash is a *liability* because it's easy for someone to steal it from you (for example) or what if you get caught by the po-po with all this cash? You need something that's as good as cash without the downsides.
|
||||
|
||||
So ideally, you have some way to change your paper cash (a *liability*) to something that's harder to steal (an *asset*) and less risky if some police officer shakes you down. You need something that has three qualities:
|
||||
|
||||
1. It should be stable so if you put in $1, you get back $1
|
||||
|
||||
2. It should be easy to convert it back to cash any time (be highly liquid)
|
||||
|
||||
3. It should have a pretty stable supply
|
||||
|
||||
Property and real estate? Too difficult to flip it back into cash when you need it. Cars? Bitcoin? Gold chains? Same problems and very volatile; convert $1 and you may not get back $1 tomorrow.
|
||||
|
||||
I don't know the right equivalent for a drug lord because there are very few real-world equivalents to government debt like Treasuries, [but maybe you convert it into Tide laundry detergent](https://nymag.com/news/features/tide-detergent-drugs-2013-1/) because 1) it's hard to steal and 2) there's always demand for Tide; you just go to the local laundromats and sell it to them to get cash back, 3) if the police discover your stash of Tide, what are they gonna do 🤣? You've just found a way to convert *a liability* into *an asset.*
|
||||
|
||||
Now whenever you have an abundance of cash, you convert it to Tide. When you need your cash, you sell the Tide and get your cash back.
|
||||
|
||||
That's what's happening with the banks and the Fed. The banks have a lot of customer cash depositsOR their assets have lost value and cannot balance their books. So they exchange their cash for Tide (Treasuries) so that they have less liabilities relative to their assets. And they are doing this every single day with increasing frequency because they are holding onto more customer deposits in cash/cash equivalent OR their assets are losing value relative to the amount of cash deposits they have.
|
@ -0,0 +1,82 @@
|
||||
Why I am Ecstatic GME is Taking a Dump, and the Possible Correlation with AMC and Crypto
|
||||
========================================================================================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/C2theC](https://www.reddit.com/user/C2theC/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nn370o/why_i_am_ecstatic_gme_is_taking_a_dump_and_the/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
[Possible DD 👨🔬](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22Possible%20DD%20%F0%9F%91%A8%E2%80%8D%F0%9F%94%AC%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||
Apes, lend me your ears.
|
||||
|
||||
I am pumped that GME took a fat dive from $268.80 down to below $235.00 as of this post. Why? Because it means we've figured out the *modus operandi* of the shorts, and HFs are fuk.
|
||||
|
||||
TL;DR HODL, because GME is going to the moon. 🚀
|
||||
|
||||
T+35/T+21 Cycles
|
||||
|
||||
This is real, and the juiciest part of this post. As I noted in my [Cyclical Patterns in Failure-To-Deliver (FTD) and Short Interest Reporting](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nezp94/cyclical_patterns_in_failuretodeliver_ftd_and/), written upon the DD of those before me, the T+35/T+21 cycles are consistent, empirical, measurable, and now, *predictable*. Read the DD of [I've estimated the current SI% based on the SI Report Cycle and Deep ITM CALL purchases.](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nc1lny/ive_estimated_the_current_si_based_on_the_si/) by [u/Criand](https://www.reddit.com/u/Criand/) for more details.
|
||||
|
||||
In the chart below, we can see that each T+21 cycle (there are around five, which I've noted above the GME chart ), in every twenty-one trading sessions, GME has a regular spike. The mechanics of this are likely to be kicking-the-can-down-the-road for the FTD cycles, and even if there might be doubters about the underlying cause, you cannot doubt the observable data that this happens exactly every twenty-one days on schedule. If the sun rises every twenty-four hours, who cares if the Earth rotates around the Sun or the Sun rotates around the Earth (shout-out to Galileo Galilei who stood up to the shills of his day)---the sun still rises every twenty-four hours.
|
||||
|
||||
Additionally, I am tracking possible cycles for dips in the yellow lines below the chart. Though I am not sure if there is a definite pattern yet, it is human nature (actually the nature of every system due to entropy) to do the same thing over and over on a repeating basis, such as the timing of morning/night routines of showering and brushing your teeth, aka personal hygiene.
|
||||
|
||||
The one pattern I have seen is that on each Short Interest Reporting Settlement Date, marked by "SIR," GME takes a dump. *Especially* after a run such as the one this week. If the pattern as depicted by the yellow lines holds true, watch out for another dump on the first day of trading next Tuesday.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/k6g14efb6w171.png?width=2433&format=png&auto=webp&s=a63cec898848e621d7b3325722b59dbe130afd24)
|
||||
|
||||
A cyclical pattern emerges
|
||||
|
||||
AMC Correlation
|
||||
|
||||
If you were a HF that was deep in the red shorting GME, consider this strategy:
|
||||
|
||||
1. Buy OTM AMC calls
|
||||
|
||||
2. Spend money to keep the GME price down, let AMC rocket, and let retail FOMO set in
|
||||
|
||||
3. Entice people to paper-hand GME, then sell those AMC calls to them
|
||||
|
||||
4. Buy OTM GME puts
|
||||
|
||||
5. Take the cash generated and drive down the GME price
|
||||
|
||||
6. Sell now-ITM GME puts and pay yourself back
|
||||
|
||||
By doing the above, you can end up spending very little or breaking even on your capital and achieve:
|
||||
|
||||
- Pushing down both the price of GME and AMC at no cost to you!
|
||||
|
||||
- Deflate the morale of GME apes that we missed out on AMC riches
|
||||
|
||||
- Deflate the morale of AMC ape-cousins that they didn't sell at the peak or bought at the top
|
||||
|
||||
- Give a story to Main Stream Media (MSM) to report that the MoASS is over, and that AMC is now -30%, from the peak, never mentioning the +120% from last Friday
|
||||
|
||||
AMC Price Action
|
||||
|
||||
What drove the price action for AMC this week? This section is all speculative, and there are multiple possibilities, some or all or none of which may be true:
|
||||
|
||||
1. There is no news, and there are no sellers, so the only driver for the price action are the shorts themselves
|
||||
|
||||
2. It is not even 2p EST and the volume on AMC is 522M, and the average 20-day volume is 165M. How is a 3× average volume possible on no news, and yesterday was 5×, unless institutions were involved?
|
||||
|
||||
3. Funds are getting margin called and need to cover or provide more cash
|
||||
|
||||
4. Shorts would let AMC go in order have ammo to suppress the price for GME, which is far more detrimental to the shorts
|
||||
|
||||
5. MSM needs a piece to talk about how much AMC came down, to "encourage" GME hodlers to paper-hand and sell, if not now, then build it into the psyche for the MoASS
|
||||
|
||||
Crypto Crash
|
||||
|
||||
The market is a zero-sum game. Due to the amount of losses in crypto, to the tune billions, it is not possible that it was all retail. Institutional investors were the whales that cashed out. The money had to go somewhere. It is likely a good portion went to the manipulation of GME and AMC, as well as the possible covering of margin calls. At the very least, it is still held as cash. This is why the general market hasn't tanked, because shorts haven't had to sell any of their beloved shares in the S&P 500 to cover for GME/AMC.
|
||||
|
||||
Conclusion
|
||||
|
||||
Jacked to the tits!
|
||||
|
||||
__________
|
||||
|
||||
Edit: *modus operandi* not *operus modi -* thanks [u/Mufragnosky](https://www.reddit.com/u/Mufragnosky/)
|
@ -0,0 +1,236 @@
|
||||
Infinity Pool: How GME Will Break the Laws of Supply and Demand and Enable the Money Glitch
|
||||
===========================================================================================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/Hemoglobin_trotter](https://www.reddit.com/user/Hemoglobin_trotter/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/o9ifjx/infinity_pool_how_gme_will_break_the_laws_of/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
[DD 👨🔬](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22DD%20%F0%9F%91%A8%E2%80%8D%F0%9F%94%AC%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||
Introduction
|
||||
|
||||
*Welcome to Theoretical Microeconomics for Apes.*
|
||||
|
||||
This post will discuss the interactions of fundamental microeconomic principles of supply, demand, price, and quantity during the MOASS, pose a theoretical example based on a hypothetical Short Interest, and discuss the possible impact of an Infinity Pool depending on its size. One of many reasons that GME will be studied for centuries is because it will stretch fundamentals of supply and demand to their theoretical limits. There are a handful of terms used repetitively throughout this post, so put your wrinkle-caps on and do some word learnin'. Fortunately, there is no quiz or attendance record.
|
||||
|
||||
- Section 1: Microeconomic Principles
|
||||
|
||||
- Section 2: Microeconomic Principles Applied to the MOASS
|
||||
|
||||
- Section 3: Key Takeaways
|
||||
|
||||
*Disclaimer: I am by no means an expert, nor am I giving advice. My goal here is to understand and discuss theoretical microeconomic principles in relation to the MOASS due to my interest in the underlying mechanics of supply and demand at play. Please refute any incorrect assumptions in the comments and I will amend the post as necessary.*
|
||||
|
||||
ta;dr: GME is a fascinating experiment of Supply and Demand. Diamond-handed Ape names price for banana
|
||||
|
||||
* * * * *
|
||||
|
||||
SECTION 1: MICROECONOMIC PRINCIPLES
|
||||
|
||||
I will provide a brief overview of each concept, with links. It is worthwhile to read the entirety of each article if you are interested in the topic(s).
|
||||
|
||||
If you are already familiar with these principles, you can skip to the next section.
|
||||
|
||||
* * * * *
|
||||
|
||||
1.1 Theory of Price - [Link to Article](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/t/theory-of-price.asp#:~:text=Understanding%20the%20Theory%20of%20Price,a%20given%20good%20or%20service.&text=The%20concept%20of%20price%20theory,adjustments%20as%20market%20conditions%20change.)
|
||||
|
||||
> The theory of price---also referred to as "price theory"---is a microeconomic principle that uses the concept of supply and demand to determine the appropriate price point for a given good or service [or in the case of GME, a security].
|
||||
|
||||
> The goal is to achieve the equilibrium where the quantity of the goods or services provided matches the demand of the corresponding market and its ability to acquire the good or service. The concept of price theory allows for price adjustments as market conditions change.
|
||||
|
||||
Ape Speak: In general, price will go up when demand exceeds supply. When supply = demand, price stay same. When supply exceeds demand, price go down.
|
||||
|
||||
* * * * *
|
||||
|
||||
1.2 The Laws of Supply and Demand
|
||||
|
||||
*Law of Supply* - [Link to Article](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/l/lawofsupply.asp)
|
||||
|
||||
> The law of supply is the microeconomic law that states that, all other factors being equal, as the price of a good or service increases, the quantity of goods or services that suppliers offer will increase, and vice versa. The law of supply says that as the price of an item goes up, suppliers will attempt to maximize their profits by increasing the quantity offered for sale.
|
||||
|
||||
> SUPPLY CURVE: Supply in a market can be depicted as an upward sloping supply curve *that shows how the quantity supplied will respond to various prices over a period of time.*
|
||||
|
||||
Ape Speak: higher prices gradually convince more Apes to sell over time.
|
||||
|
||||
*Law of Demand* - [Link to Article](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/l/lawofdemand.asp)
|
||||
|
||||
> The law of demand states that quantity purchased varies inversely with price. In other words, the higher the price, the lower the quantity demanded.
|
||||
|
||||
> DEMAND CURVE: A market demand curve expresses the sum of quantity demanded at each price across all consumers in the market.
|
||||
|
||||
> Changes in price can be reflected in movement along a demand curve, but do not by themselves increase or decrease demand.
|
||||
|
||||
Ape Speak: [Typically, higher prices make people buy fewer of something.](https://imgur.com/a/WlR7tGv)
|
||||
|
||||
* * * * *
|
||||
|
||||
1.3 Supply and Demand Curves - [Link to Article](https://open.lib.umn.edu/principleseconomics/chapter/3-3-demand-supply-and-equilibrium/)
|
||||
|
||||
[Pic#1: Example Supply and Demand Curves plotted together.](https://imgur.com/a/xVsyDnh)
|
||||
|
||||
> The demand curve shows the quantities of a particular good or service that buyers will be willing and able to purchase at each price during a specified period. The supply curve shows the quantities that sellers will offer for sale at each price during that same period. By putting the two curves together, we should be able to find a price at which the quantity buyers are willing and able to purchase equals the quantity sellers will offer for sale.
|
||||
|
||||
Any individual point along the Supply or Demand Curve identifies the quantity that will be supplied or demanded at a particular price (i.e., *Quantity Supplied & Quantity Demanded*). When supply exceeds demand, there is a *surplus*. When demand exceeds supply, there is a *shortage*.
|
||||
|
||||
Ape Speak: Typically, demand and supply move in opposite directions in relation to price. When you put the two lines on a graph, they intersect at a specific price and quantity - these graphs are useful for analyzing prices.
|
||||
|
||||
* * * * *
|
||||
|
||||
1.4 Equilibrium - [Link to Article](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/e/equilibrium.asp#:~:text=The%20equilibrium%20price%20is%20where,in%20a%20state%20of%20equilibrium.)
|
||||
|
||||
Equilibrium (artificial or otherwise) is something GME users have come to know intimately over the last month. During the MOASS, the price of GME will begin moving wildly towards a new market equilibrium (extreme rising and dipping), after which prices will stabilize and return to earth.
|
||||
|
||||
> Equilibrium is the state in which market supply and demand balance each other, and as a result prices become stable. Generally, an over-supply of goods or services causes prices to go down, which results in higher demand---while an under-supply or shortage causes prices to go up resulting in less demand. The balancing effect of supply and demand results in a state of equilibrium.
|
||||
|
||||
Because Equilibrium is a singular point on a standard graph where two curves intersect, it produces an Equilibrium Price (the Y axis), and an Equilibrium Quantity (the X axis).
|
||||
|
||||
> A market in equilibrium demonstrates three characteristics: the behavior of agents is consistent, there are no incentives for agents to change behavior, and a dynamic process governs equilibrium outcome.
|
||||
|
||||
*This is where Apes combined with astronomical Short Interest throw a wrench into the market machinery and stretch the mechanics of supply and demand to the limit.*
|
||||
|
||||
Ape Speak: Equilibrium is reached when quantity supplied = quantity demanded. Equilibrium produces a measurable *Equilibrium Price* and *Equilibrium Quantity*. Equilibrium = market harmony.
|
||||
|
||||
* * * * *
|
||||
|
||||
1.5 Price Elasticity of Supply and Price Elasticity of Demand
|
||||
|
||||
[Elasticity vs. Inelasticity](https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/012915/what-difference-between-inelasticity-and-elasticity-demand.asp) - [Perfect Elasticity and Zero Elasticity](https://opentextbc.ca/principlesofeconomics/chapter/5-2-polar-cases-of-elasticity-and-constant-elasticity/) - [Inelastic Supply Explained](https://www.economicshelp.org/concepts/inelastic-supply/)
|
||||
|
||||
*Elasticity:* In this context, elasticity is another way of saying "rate of change" of a curve. Both Supply and Demand Curves have their own elasticity, [which determines exactly how steep the curve is on the graph](https://imgur.com/a/xVsyDnh). See Pic#1. Determining the elasticity of each curve is helpful for understanding where the curves might intersect to create market equilibrium price and quantity.
|
||||
|
||||
Elasticity, expressed mathematically, is: E = (% Change in Quantity (Supplied or Demanded) / % Change in Price). It expresses the relationship of how many units become available from sellers or are demanded by buyers in response to changes in price. In theory, Demand and Supply Curves can reach extremes of elasticity - either perfect elasticity, or zero elasticity. It is important to note that elasticity is subject to market conditions, and changes over time - this means that Supply and Demand Curves can have different slopes at different quantities/prices. (Hint: supply being held by a diamond-handed Ape is a market condition that impacts elasticity of supply!)
|
||||
|
||||
- Perfect elasticity means that your Supply or Demand Curve is completely flat, and that Quantity Supplied or Demanded changes by an infinite amount in response to any change in price. (We don't really care about this in the context of GME, except to the extent that it helps us understand the flip-side, zero elasticity).
|
||||
|
||||
- Zero elasticity (E = 0), which is what we care about in our GME example, refers to extreme cases where a % change in price, no matter how large, results in zero change in Quantity Supplied or Demanded. When elasticity is zero, supply and demand are irresponsive to any change in price, no matter how large.
|
||||
|
||||
Ape Speak: Elasticity determines the slope of the Supply and Demand Curves. Low *Elasticity of Supply* means that a big change in price has a small impact on the quantity of shares supplied to the market. Low/zero *Elasticity of Demand* means that a big change in price does not impact demand (in this case, the requirement to close a fixed quantity of short positions).
|
||||
|
||||
* * * * *
|
||||
|
||||
SECTION 2: MICROECONOMIC PRINCIPLES APPLIED TO THE MOASS
|
||||
|
||||
*Disclaimer: This is the point of the post at which my understanding of the material presented above collides with my understanding of the last few months of DD. In other words, the proceeding sections could be most accurately classified as an opinion or educated guess.*
|
||||
|
||||
[We're gonna hypothetical them hedgies' clavicles!](https://imgur.com/a/09lARpM)
|
||||
|
||||
Here, I will apply the above-reference microeconomic principles to a MOASS that uses hypothetical numbers. Short Interest is critical here because it represents the number of shares at which the QUANTITY DEMANDED WILL BE FIXED. (Note: this is not a discussion about the possible short interest. I personally believe that the real SI is much higher than in the example I am about to pose.)
|
||||
|
||||
[Pic#2: Money Glitch Activated: A Hypothetical GME MOASS Supply & Demand Curve](https://imgur.com/a/xVsyDnh)
|
||||
|
||||
Important Numbers for this example:
|
||||
|
||||
- Short Interest: ~400% (280m shares)
|
||||
|
||||
- Float: 25m (for ease of calculation)
|
||||
|
||||
- Float repurchases to cover shorted shares: 11.2 float repurchases (the last ~25m shares - the final whole float repurchase - is important later on)
|
||||
|
||||
* * * * *
|
||||
|
||||
2.1. GME Demand Curve and Price Elasticity of Demand - Fixed Demand Enables Infinite Losses
|
||||
|
||||
*GME Demand Curve*
|
||||
|
||||
- When shorts must cover and close their positions, they will require a fixed quantity of shares to do so.
|
||||
|
||||
- This fixed *Quantity Demanded* means that shorts must cover at any price until the *Quantity Supplied* reaches the *Quantity Demanded*.
|
||||
|
||||
*GME Price Elasticity of Demand*
|
||||
|
||||
- Because *Quantity Demanded* is fixed, *Price Elasticity of Demand* is ZERO - the *Demand Curve* is VERTICAL.
|
||||
|
||||
- *Quantity Demanded* will not change NO MATTER THE CHANGE IN PRICE.
|
||||
|
||||
* * * * *
|
||||
|
||||
2.2. GME Supply Curve and Price Elasticity of Supply - The Ceiling is Your Imagination
|
||||
|
||||
*GME Supply Curve*
|
||||
|
||||
- The GME *Supply Curve* is the single most important factor for determining the "price ceiling" of the MOASS.
|
||||
|
||||
- Because the *Demand Curve* is a vertical line, *Equilibrium Price* is determined by whatever point the *Supply Curve* intersects the *Demand Curve* (in other terms, when *Quantity Supplied* equals *Quantity Demanded*).
|
||||
|
||||
- The steeper the slope of the *Supply Curve*, the higher the "price ceiling" of the MOASS
|
||||
|
||||
*GME Price Elasticity of Supply (PES)*
|
||||
|
||||
- In practice, GME *PES* (the slope of the *Supply Curve*) will change over time and according to market conditions.
|
||||
|
||||
- Paperhands lead to higher *PES* and flatter *Supply Curves*, whereas Diamond hands lead to near-zero *PES* and more vertical *Supply Curves* (Remember when I said that having diamond hands is a market condition?)
|
||||
|
||||
- When PES is high, more shares will trade between trading halts. When *PES* is low, fewer shares will be exchanged between trading halts. (Theoretically, as little as a single share could be traded between trading halts).
|
||||
|
||||
- At the beginning of the MOASS, *PES* will be higher as paperhands are tempted to sell in the 3-6 figure range. (Smaller changes in price will cause higher quantities to become available)
|
||||
|
||||
- The real squeeze begins when Diamond hands begin setting/lowering the *PES*, enabling share prices to exceed 7 figures. (Larger changes in price cause very low quantities to become available)
|
||||
|
||||
* * * * *
|
||||
|
||||
2.3. GME Theory of Price and Equilibrium - Ape Names Price
|
||||
|
||||
Bringing it back to this graphic: [Pic#2: Hypothetical GME MOASS Supply & Demand Curve](https://imgur.com/a/xVsyDnh), you can see that a hypothetical *Equilibrium Price* has been established.
|
||||
|
||||
*Disclaimer: This example does not account for the fact that some amount of the final ~25m shares (the final float once rehypothecated shares are gone) will be re-circulated and change the Price Elasticity of Supply as the Supply Curve approaches the Demand Curve. In other words, the Supply Curve could begin to flatten once Quantity Supplied is one whole float away from Quantity Demanded.*
|
||||
|
||||
- In this example, a price somewhere between $10m-$100m is sufficient to convince Diamond-Handed Apes to provide enough supply of shares to meet the demand created by Marge's call and create the required liquidity to close all of the outstanding short positions.
|
||||
|
||||
- When the short positions are closed, *Equilibrium* has been achieved, *Quantity Supplied* equals *Quantity Demanded*, and the price begins to stabilize (crash). This does not imply that the peak occurs exactly at the moment that the last short position is closed. I believe that the peak will occur sometime shortly after the first of the real shares enter the market, and liquidity begins to normalize.
|
||||
|
||||
* * * * *
|
||||
|
||||
2.4. GME MOASS, Infinity Pool Edition - The Forever Shorts
|
||||
|
||||
*But what happens if the Quantity Supplied never reaches the Quantity Demanded?*
|
||||
|
||||
It would look something like this: [Pic#3: GME MOASS Supply & Demand Curve: INFINITY POOL EDITION](https://imgur.com/a/xVsyDnh)
|
||||
|
||||
- An Infinity Pool of any size will reduce *Price Elasticity of Supply*, thus maintaining a more vertical *Supply Curve* even as real shares enter the market for re-circulation.
|
||||
|
||||
- If there is an Infinity Pool that equals or exceeds one whole float (~25m shares +1 share), then the *Price Elasticity of Supply* becomes ZERO, the *Supply Curve* becomes COMPLETELY VERTICAL and never intersects the *Demand Curve*, and Apes can truly name whatever price their broker allows them to enter at the time. There is an absolute *Shortage* of shares.
|
||||
|
||||
* * * * *
|
||||
|
||||
SECTION 3: KEY TAKEAWAYS
|
||||
|
||||
*I believe these key takeaways are reasonable given the information already known and presented here, but these are best classified as opinions/ educated guesses*:
|
||||
|
||||
- Current State of Relative Equilibrium: Currently, so long as shorts create artificial equilibrium by meeting demand with artificial supply, the market will remain in a state of pseudo-equilibrium. When the downward price pressure of artificial supply inverts itself into upward price pressure from buying to cover, a wormhole opens. (This is nothing new, but I have yet to hear it expressed in these terms)
|
||||
|
||||
- Real-time Supply & Demand Curve: Monitoring activity on the bid/ask spread and volume between trading halts during the MOASS will provide insight into the current state of *Price Elasticity of Supply*. At times, the bid/ask spread will be as wide as brokerage maximum-price limits allow.
|
||||
|
||||
- When is the Infinity Squeeze phase of the MOASS truly getting started? When the *Price Elasticity of Supply* is stupidly low and getting lower. Assuming that Diamond Handed Apes own the float, the real squeeze hasn't started until GME is trading over 7-8 digits. Apes will be some of the last sellers to get in line, so any price action prior to Apes getting in line to name their price is only a buildup to the Infinity Squeeze.
|
||||
|
||||
- Utility of Volume During MOASS as a Predictor of a Potential Peak: In all likelihood, total volume is not a reliable indicator of a squeeze peak. You would have to possess a relatively accurate idea of the true size of the short position (a.k.a. *Quantity Demanded*), know that there is no additional volume being created by new short positions that open during the MOASS, and know the impact of real shares beginning to re-circulate.
|
||||
|
||||
- Infinity Pool Can Create a True Infinity Squeeze: Suppose that Apes own the float two-times over. If each Ape placed half of their shares into the Infinity Pool, then the final ~25m shares will be inaccessible by the market, and the short positions can't be closed until other sources of liquidity become available. In that scenario, Apes can name their price for the half of their shares that do not go into the Infinity Pool. I cannot personally fathom what would happen to the price if the entire current float could not re-enter circulation - perhaps institutional sellers would provide liquidity to stabilize the price later-on, but I do not know the details of how or how long it would take.
|
||||
|
||||
- Dips on the way up: No matter how far the price crashes down on the way up, I will not be convinced that the squeeze has started until the price is rocketing past $100k-$1m and very few shares are exchanging hands between the trading halts. IMO, any dip between $1m-$10m cannot be the true peak, because by that point it is clear that Apes are diamond handing enough shares to allow Apes to name their own price if they continue to hold.
|
||||
|
||||
- Closing the Last Short Position vs. Timing of the Peak: When the short positions are closed, *Equilibrium* has been momentarily achieved, *Quantity Supplied* equals *Quantity Demanded*, and the price begins to move towards a new *Equilibrium* with different market conditions. This does not imply that the peak or crash occurs exactly at the moment that the last short position is closed. I believe that the peak will occur sometime shortly after the first of the real shares enter the market, but IDK though.
|
||||
|
||||
- USE LIMIT ORDERS: How can an Ape name their price if they let the market name the price for them?
|
||||
|
||||
* * * * *
|
||||
|
||||
As many have said, if everyone waits until backside of the MOASS to sell, there will be no backside.
|
||||
|
||||
My personal opinion on the matter, which is obviously not financial advice, is that holding all but 1 share would be the optimal way to assure an Infinity Pool is achieved!
|
||||
|
||||
* * * * *
|
||||
|
||||
ta;dr: GME is a fascinating experiment of Supply and Demand. Diamond-handed Ape names price for banana
|
||||
|
||||
[Pic #1: Ordinary Supply and Demand Curves](https://imgur.com/a/xVsyDnh)
|
||||
|
||||
[Pic #2: Money Glitch Activated: A Hypothetical GME MOASS Supply & Demand Curve](https://imgur.com/a/xVsyDnh)
|
||||
|
||||
[Pic #3: GME MOASS Supply & Demand Curve: INFINITY POOL EDITION](https://imgur.com/a/xVsyDnh)
|
||||
|
||||
* * * * *
|
||||
|
||||
This is a repost of my content from a month ago. [Further reading on Infinity Pool concept by [/u/bluprince](https://www.reddit.com/u/bluprince/) can be found here.] (<https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/mpvx9n/the_infinity_pool_naming_a_theoretical_posit_for>). This is a case of two people independently arriving at the same conclusion using different methodologies, which ought to jack your tits that much more.
|
216
DD/2021-06-30-Demystifying-the-Feds-ON-RRP-Operations.md
Normal file
216
DD/2021-06-30-Demystifying-the-Feds-ON-RRP-Operations.md
Normal file
@ -0,0 +1,216 @@
|
||||
Demystify the Feds ON-RRP Operations, Why do we care so much about them? | Finally figured out what Michael Burrry IS trying to tell the world
|
||||
==============================================================================================================================================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/jsmar18](https://www.reddit.com/user/jsmar18/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/oaw2ls/demystify_the_feds_onrrp_operations_why_do_we/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
[DD 👨🔬](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22DD%20%F0%9F%91%A8%E2%80%8D%F0%9F%94%AC%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||
Two things that have led me here 1. Trying to figure out WTF Michael Burrry was trying to reference and getting it wrong several times 2. Why the fuck do we care so much about the Feds ON-RRP operation?
|
||||
|
||||
There's been so much hype about the ON-RRP volume the past three months or so, and it made me reflect. I don't actually know why I'm hyped about it or why people keep posting about it. I had a good idea of why, at least I thought I did, but I decided to go about researching it further and ended up collaborating with a repo expert who's had over 20+ years in the industry working at 3 different primary dealers.
|
||||
|
||||
All I knew was incorrect. From how the Feds ON-RRPs are used, who is putting the money into ON-RRPs, and why I was hyped about it increasing every day.
|
||||
|
||||
So let's go on a journey to understand some history of the Feds ON-RRP operations and how that led me to realising I was looking at the wrong hints from Michael Burrry.
|
||||
|
||||
1. A Series of Unfortunate Events
|
||||
|
||||
2. Honey, I Sucked All the Liquidity Out
|
||||
|
||||
3. Honey, I Blew up the Rates
|
||||
|
||||
4. Star Wars: The Fed Strikes Back
|
||||
|
||||
5. What Michael Burrrry was trying to allude to (ran outa puns)
|
||||
|
||||
A Series of Unfortunate Events
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/d9o37zup8e871.png?width=960&format=png&auto=webp&s=245f72ebfbbe0147f89cb7643aed6196546202b6)
|
||||
|
||||
From the above, you can see how this was a disaster waiting from back in 2008 when they started buying up assets due to the GFC. It all came to nip them back in the butt, let's see what happened next shall we?
|
||||
|
||||
Honey, I Sucked All the Liquidity Out
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/jikg6isy8e871.png?width=960&format=png&auto=webp&s=6d1c0ccd93eead724b0230da757905b1e1edfd41)
|
||||
|
||||
Despite people often referring to 6. (myself included in a past DD) as Quantitative Easing (QE), it's not. It looks like it though on face value. The Fed had to say it was not specifically in previous notes and meetings, as these types of operations do not stimulate the economy, it's just the get the markets "oiled up again". We're talking about their repo operations here specifically, not adding back assets to their balance sheet.
|
||||
|
||||
Rates, Rates and Rates
|
||||
|
||||
Before we get into the next section, let's understand the floor system that the Fed uses. The general gist of a floor with subfloor system, the fed sets several targets. Policy is announced as a target range for fed funds rate, top range of that is given by the IOER that they set and the bottom is the ON-RRP.
|
||||
|
||||
Interest Rate on Excess Reserves = IOER = Floor
|
||||
|
||||
Overnight Reverse Repo= ON-RRP = Subfloor
|
||||
|
||||
Why not call it a roof and floor? To make it confusing for anyone that's not in their world to understand 😂
|
||||
|
||||
Below is a visualisation to help put it in perspective, the federal funds rate aims to sit in the middle generally.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/bkzktfp59e871.png?width=651&format=png&auto=webp&s=dc73e43dbe1db2a77215cf5642b3d7229f298387)
|
||||
|
||||
Honey, I Blew up the Rates
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/og4qpt799e871.png?width=960&format=png&auto=webp&s=57a0af2bdb7c3d3250e437308781107ee451707a)
|
||||
|
||||
What happens if the fed funds rate were higher than the IOER?
|
||||
|
||||
That would mean a bank wanting to lend their cash would earn more interest on the fed funds market compared to lending to the fed at the IOER - aka the money the fed pays them on their reserves. This demand for fed funds would then cause the fed funds rate to go down (theoretically).
|
||||
|
||||
Let's Chat ON-RRP
|
||||
|
||||
We only talk about the recent spike in activity, and totally ignore what's happened previously. This ends up leaving us uninformed of the contextual reasons for it spiking.
|
||||
|
||||
So starting in that rough 2018 period, it becomes obvious that the ON-RRP facility is not actually helping all that much when it comes to their ability to control the federal funds rate, keeping it within the 25-basis point target range they had back then.
|
||||
|
||||
There's also another reason for their disappearance which is to do with the Fed hiking rates from 2016 onwards, the banks can now get paid more in interest from the Fed on their reserves in comparison. There's liquidity regulations nowadays in comparison to pre GFC times. The Liquidity Coverage Ratio (LCR) is a big boi, but in summary, banks just need to hold some combination of reserves and U.S. treasury securities to guard against deposit outflows in times of market stress.
|
||||
|
||||
Due to a range of reasons, banks actually prefer reserves compared to securities - main reason being if treasuries are sold off quickly, it'll drive prices down, so in the end, reserves are preferred.
|
||||
|
||||
Rate Wars: The Fed Strikes Back
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/8mlk2m0e9e871.png?width=960&format=png&auto=webp&s=7bc4dd1536cee9bf4e59eb274b6f3cc288553793)
|
||||
|
||||
That was a lengthy one, but now you know the contextual history of how the Fed manages its rates and why RRP is exploding (on purpose to manage rates, if that was not clear already). It's honestly not that big of a deal that people make it. Please remember online new sources do tend to write for viewership, as such, disaster writing will bring in more viewership than boring macro economics talk....
|
||||
|
||||
Let's dig into some myths that often get talked about incorrectly in relation to ON-RRPs operations of the Fed. Before we get to debunking, let's understand Tri Party and what itm eans.
|
||||
|
||||
Tri Party Repos
|
||||
|
||||
Both Repo and Reverse Repo operations are done in a triparty format (also remember, they are one in the same transaction). Only around 0.1% are done DVP (directly). This is largely for efficiency purposes - let's visualise what this tri party process looks like.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/uen1anm8re871.png?width=967&format=png&auto=webp&s=aee789cfa3951aea8ce1a72e9bc51cb697ccc31c)
|
||||
|
||||
The most obvious thing with a triparty repo is that the customer receiving the collateral does not have access it. It's sitting in the trade shell the custodial bank set-up. So if the they want to re-use the collateral sitting in that shell, it's actually the custodial bank that'll set that up. DVP (Direct) can't be reused unlike Tri-party.
|
||||
|
||||
Collateral Re-use is simply as follows, custodial bank takes the existing shell and puts it into another shell.
|
||||
|
||||
I think we know enough now, so let's get to debunking!
|
||||
|
||||
Debunk Time!
|
||||
|
||||
Hedge Funds are involved with RRP
|
||||
|
||||
This is not exactly a popular one, but i've seen it mentioned before. HFs have zero involvement in the Feds' ON-RRP market. The following link plainly debunks this one. <https://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/rrp_counterparties#reverse-repo-counterparties>
|
||||
|
||||
While HFs are not involved with the Feds' ON-RRP market, they certainly are in the repo market as it's how they leverage their long positions and cover their short positions.
|
||||
|
||||
The effect of the high RRP amounts will blow up everything
|
||||
|
||||
The above is dramatic, but you get the general vibe that's shared within the sub. All the analysis we've done above should give you the answer. Once rates increase, money market funds will move elsewhere. We've seen recent increases, so why no change in ON-RRP volume? Because MMFs are not gonna show a rate better than 5bps, as the repo market also moved up the same amount... So why move your money if there's no benefit? We can observe the recent days tapering off in volume since the 5bps increase, so this will likely be the future trend, if not decreasing.
|
||||
|
||||
The Fed will continue its balancing act. It is very much a build-up from 2008 and [u/criand](https://www.reddit.com/u/criand/) 's recent post is some good storytelling on it (as well as this DD from a more technical standpoint). As such the Fed are learning as they go, it's becoming clear that loading up the ON-RRP facility is not sufficient to influence rates, which is displayed through the most recent rate increase by 0.05%. They just does not care about the volume of ON-RRP being high, because that's how it's designed to work, policy-wise. They have far more assets than the participants have cash, so as long as demand is there it'll keep rising until something otherwise changes (such as rates increasing as mentioned above).
|
||||
|
||||
We're only noticing this because big numbers attract attention and we made a connection between rehypothecation and reverse repos. But wrongly so in my opinion. (pls no pitch forks).
|
||||
|
||||
RRP is used to support trading/margin functions
|
||||
|
||||
This is not a popular theory either, but better to touch on it while we're here.
|
||||
|
||||
It's illogical to use RRP as a way to post margin. It "could" be done, but why would you spend cash to borrow treasury securities? You end up in the same spot regardless if you're using cash or a security to post for margin.
|
||||
|
||||
Trading 212
|
||||
|
||||
May as well touch on this topic while it's making its rounds. What's described in their terms they are trying to get people to agree to is described as a collateral swap with a haircut. The haircut is anything over that 100% mark. To be clear, it's very common and it should not come as a surprise to anyone who has bought shares through a broker that lends out customers' shares.
|
||||
|
||||
You should get in contact and ask what type of collateral is posted and MORE IMPORTANTLY ask for your shares not to be lent out. If they say "nah dawg", then ask if you get the profits reaped from the haircut in the case above, or any interest charged.
|
||||
|
||||
As to what happens when the MOASS happens and HFs start going bankrupt, no clue. A good topic for someone to delve into. What about bond value taking a dive? Dunno, best guess would be they'd have brokers knocking on their door.
|
||||
|
||||
Treasury Securities are being shorted utilising rehypothecation
|
||||
|
||||
I think this is probably the biggest theory that's misunderstood.
|
||||
|
||||
It's technically possible to do this, the problem is that it just makes no sense to do it. The main reason is due to how the shell functions that the Custodial bank sets up. They create a shell for the collateral that the Fed dumps their securities into, the only problem is, the dealer/counterparty does not know which issue they'll get in that shell. The Fed decides what to put in that shell.
|
||||
|
||||
So let's imagine you are wanting to short a bill and you have a crystal ball.
|
||||
|
||||
You're not gonna be shorting a 3 month bill simply due to the maturity of the trade, and more likely a longer dated issue such as the 30yr where you'll make far more money.
|
||||
|
||||
Using the crystal ball:
|
||||
|
||||
IF you knew the bill or bond being given in the RRP shell
|
||||
|
||||
AND IF you could sell that issue in time before the market closed for the day AND sell it for cash (same day) settlement.
|
||||
|
||||
AND IF the Fed whispered in your ear that you'd have it for a week straight (meaning you won't have any fail to delivers)
|
||||
|
||||
AND IF the Fed did this all in DVP for you (0.1% of all ON-RRP trades, Fed only does Tri-party), else you can't touch the security as it's in a shell created by the custodial bank
|
||||
|
||||
So if all these unlikely things were to occur, you're still in the pickle of being in the need to buy back the bond you shorted the next day (because these are overnight transactions remember), if you don't find it then you'll be on the hook for 300bps (3%) a day on FTD charges, which in the bond world, is a big deal.
|
||||
|
||||
You'd also likely need to be a primary dealer (big boys like goldman) to pull this off in the first place, but the Fed would get pissed and you're jeopardizing your primary dealership status - which is something you don't want to risk as you'll make more money being a primary dealer rather than being kicked out of the club.
|
||||
|
||||
The source i've been working with has said over his 24 years time at a variety of primary dealers, Not one would have voluntarily shorted ON-RRP bonds. It's just way too risky and there's virtually no upside - IF you could even pull off the above in the first place.
|
||||
|
||||
Figuring out what MB meant this whole damn time....
|
||||
|
||||
There's been three things that Michael Burrry mainly tweets about
|
||||
|
||||
1. Cryptocurrency
|
||||
|
||||
2. Inflation
|
||||
|
||||
3. Leverage
|
||||
|
||||
(and random non financial stuff - borrrrinnngggg)
|
||||
|
||||
I've personally been on a mission to understand wtf he meant ever since he deleted his profile the first time, leaving us a link to a note from the federal reserves on the in and outs of collateral re-use (pictured below).
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/5am3ooiw9e871.png?width=293&format=png&auto=webp&s=b82b1cf9a74245668d1b6e70c38cce817ca7d23c)
|
||||
|
||||
The Fed note was so so heavily focused on Reverse Repos, Repos, Rehypothecation that it clouded my judgement in terms of what he was trying to reference within that paper. Largely because it was the talk of the town at the time (and still is), but as we went through above, the purpose of that was to show that the ON-RRP numbers we screenshot all day are not a huge concern.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/lvvgvacy9e871.png?width=943&format=png&auto=webp&s=5cd3a571ee45636e2cff0878f4124c3e2e0004c5)
|
||||
|
||||
It's the tweet above that ironically connected the dots for me, but also answered the question in itself as it gave us what we already knew in a way. But i'll walk you through what i perceived him trying to point out in regards to the speculative bubble. I believe this was the chart he was alluding reference to, specifically, the margin loans trend.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/y00d0gx0ae871.png?width=596&format=png&auto=webp&s=ca28cbc11b56922c5258057dc421f8eb3ac2e545)
|
||||
|
||||
Unencumbered Products
|
||||
|
||||
This refers to positions that are purchased outright that are free of legal, regulatory, contractual or other restriction on the ability of the reporting entity to monetize the assets. The entity in this case are primary dealers, the big bois of the world, of which 24 exist. You can find the list [here](https://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/primarydealers), names from Goldman, Morgan Stanley to you get the gist. Now note, the chart above is only based on a subset of primary dealers, so the numbers could very well be bigger.
|
||||
|
||||
Back to the Chart
|
||||
|
||||
What we can see is the following:
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/913chwt2ae871.png?width=960&format=png&auto=webp&s=db38ca9e7f2d6172edff30ab7ddaf924f4d72571)
|
||||
|
||||
I was attempting to find what "order of magnitude by 2" he was referring to, and the closest thing i can refer to is the total is how margin+cash accounts have gone from millions -> billions -> trillions. The greatest crash in US history was "The Wall Street Crash" in 1929 (or at least most famous, please correct me if i'm wrong), sadly i don't have data that goes back that far - but i don't think it'd be a long shot to imagine that aggregate margin+cash accounts may have been in the tippy top of the millions in the 1920's.
|
||||
|
||||
Therefore we've gone from millions in the 1920's to billions in the late 1900's and we've just hit the trillion mark in Dec-2020. So there are your two orders of magnitude ladies and gentlemen.
|
||||
|
||||
And that is what i believe MB has been referring to, we obviously did not figure it out, because the dude had to come back from his SEC enforced slumber to literally serve it up on a plate via a tweet.
|
||||
|
||||
It essentially comes down to this logic in the past year since COVID happened, with primary dealers, aka big banks like Goldman saying "Yeah nah, we're not gonna get fucked, let's pump cash into the market via our HF buddies to make sure they don't tank and continue their bull run" - *All while being leveraged to the tits...* pretty easy judgement to make from my POV. As we say, kick that can down the road.
|
||||
|
||||
TL;DR
|
||||
|
||||
- The Feds ON-RRP are really nothing to be worrying about, let alone posting everyday. As soon as rates go up high enough, Money Market Funds (make up majority of ON-RRP volume) will take their cash elsewhere (we're starting to see this already)
|
||||
|
||||
- Hedge funds are not involved in ON-RRP as they are not "on the VIP list" if ya get what i mean
|
||||
|
||||
- ON-RRP is not used to support margin/trading functions
|
||||
|
||||
- Treasury securities that are rehypothecated are not being shorted (it's purely illogical)
|
||||
|
||||
- Margin balances are fucked at $800b+ an ~83% increase from last year. It really feels like they are trying to prop the market up via speculative and spectacularly dumping cash into the market (don't forget the increased presence of retail in these markets now as well)
|
||||
|
||||
Counter DD
|
||||
|
||||
The first part of the DD tends to go against the grain of <https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/o9aanm/black_monday_events_are_mondays_which_experience/> which is [u/Criand](https://www.reddit.com/u/Criand/)'s post about RRP in some areas. To note, i agree on most points about the spikes re EOM dates.
|
||||
|
||||
The thing i have the largest disagreeance with is that the Feds ON-RRP operations are something to worry about. As soon as rates go up to a certain level, MMFs will start moving their cash elsewhere and ON-RRP volume will shrink again (and treasury balance for the Fed increases as a result). My prediction is that we'll enter a similar cycle before 2020 where rate increases become more abundant (we're seeing hints of this already with recent 5bps increase).
|
||||
|
||||
Edit: Fuck. Ignore the orders of magnitude part. I overshot big-time 😅 10^6, 10^12, 10^18, far more than two orders of magnitude. It however may be referring to different events 🤔Let me know your thoughts in the comments!
|
||||
|
||||
Edit:
|
||||
|
||||
Thanks for taking the time to read, judging by the top comments while I was asleep, it looks like i succeeded in creating some awesome discussion and further thoughts on this topic! I encourage you to take this further and write even better DDs that help promote our knowledge within the sub on the matter!
|
||||
|
||||
Thanks for the great comments [u/Longjumping_College](https://www.reddit.com/u/Longjumping_College/), [u/Criand](https://www.reddit.com/u/Criand/), [u/lightwhite](https://www.reddit.com/u/lightwhite/) [u/Modswithnobods](https://www.reddit.com/u/Modswithnobods/)!
|
9
DD/2021-06-30-The-Long-Con.md
Normal file
9
DD/2021-06-30-The-Long-Con.md
Normal file
@ -0,0 +1,9 @@
|
||||
# The Long Con
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| Saved by [u/bossmighty](https://www.reddit.com/user/bossmighty/) | [PDF Host](https://pdfhost.io/v/O.YHbvSRP_TLC_THE_LONG_CON_The_markets_are_frothing_with_liquiditypdf.pdf) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
[The-Long-Con.pdf](https://github.com/verymeticulous/wikAPEdia/files/6744919/The-Long-Con.pdf)
|
10
DD/2021-06-30-Through-the-Looking-Glass.md
Normal file
10
DD/2021-06-30-Through-the-Looking-Glass.md
Normal file
@ -0,0 +1,10 @@
|
||||
# Through the Looking Glass
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| Saved by [u/bossmighty](https://www.reddit.com/user/bossmighty/) | [PDF Host](https://pdfhost.io/v/KhuW5HZ~N_THROUGH_THE_LOOKING_GLASS.pdf) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
[Through-the-Looking-Glass.pdf](https://github.com/verymeticulous/wikAPEdia/files/6744911/Through-the-Looking-Glass.pdf)
|
||||
|
@ -0,0 +1,116 @@
|
||||
The DTCC (Depository That Clears Counterfeits) is finished. They covered up the fraud that enables naked short selling and are why we will MOASS to epic proportions.
|
||||
=====================================================================================================================================================================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/JustBeingPunny](https://www.reddit.com/user/JustBeingPunny/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/ocds1m/the_dtcc_depository_that_clears_counterfeits_is/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
[DD 👨🔬](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22DD%20%F0%9F%91%A8%E2%80%8D%F0%9F%94%AC%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||
TL;DR - The naked shorting scandal is much worse than you may have first believed. The 'real' shares in your account hold the exact same rights as any other, but behind the curtain, the DTCC has historically covered up the FTDs and mass naked shorting using CEBE (Counterfeit Electronic Book Entries). This is the DTCC's way of maintaining this reverse Ponzi scheme. This is why an NFT dividend would ruin them, as they can't 'cook the books' for everyone to get one. The DTCC is fuk.
|
||||
|
||||
Edit - If the DTCC wasn't royally fucked...why would they be passing so many rules to push the blame on to the participants? Tits = Jacqued
|
||||
|
||||
House of Cards was an extraordinary insight to the inner workings of the DTCC. If you haven't read it by now, you should before you read this post, as it assumes a fundamental knowledge of them. I have also obtained much data here from the naked short selling expert Jim DeCosta. If you haven't read his letters to the SEC, I urge you too. They're long but they were dumbed down so even the SEC could understand them.
|
||||
|
||||
I ain't no financial advisor.
|
||||
|
||||
________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
|
||||
|
||||
A brief history -
|
||||
|
||||
*For ease of typing I will be using NSS to refer to Naked Short Selling.*
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/97pzaly4tt871.png?width=254&format=png&auto=webp&s=c655a0725b3d4a01b5a28cbaed1df4e3b02a36e3)
|
||||
|
||||
NSS has been as systemic issue YEARS before the financial crash of 2008. There were warnings of this to the SEC back in 2006 and of course, they did nothing. The small changes they did implement were miniscule in effect, which continued to enable predatory short sellers to cause financial 'death spirals' to bankruptcy.
|
||||
|
||||
Do you know how institutions defended NSS as a necessary evil in the markets? Pump and dumps.
|
||||
|
||||
NSS was meant to 'curb the fraud' and 'protect investors'. It was argued that pump and dumps would run riot without the ability to sell shares they couldn't borrow. Collectively, these 'shareholder advocates' are generously offering their services in the fight back against pump and dumps.
|
||||
|
||||
They're offering to step up and volunteer to become a pseudo-sheriff and sell non-existent stocks into the hands of 'about to become victims'. They don't own the shares, nor did they check the 'borrowability' of them. They're generously volunteering to take the investors money in exchange for a CEBE, artificially raising the supply. This of course, immediately does damage to the investment, the company and existing shareholders.
|
||||
|
||||
After the naked short has been done, what now? Well the 'would be victim' and the 'shareholder advocate' now fundamentally have goals that are polar opposite. The buyer wants the stock to go to the moon. The naked short seller wants the business to bankrupt. It begs the question; why would an entity volunteering to protect against fraud, still take the money of the investor?
|
||||
|
||||
*Wouldn't you agree that pump and dumps and NSS go hand in hand? Pump up a stock and then bear raid it into the ground? It was a way to maximize profit on the DOWN in the dump phase.*
|
||||
|
||||
_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
|
||||
|
||||
1+1 = 3
|
||||
|
||||
The maximum amount of shares that can LEGALLY be sold short is governed by the number shares that can LEGALLY be borrowed. NSS ignores this fundamental basic mechanism. In fact, the DTCC enables this further due to the fact a single share can be lent out in multiple directions. This is the reason for FTDs in the hundreds of percent.
|
||||
|
||||
So how does this play into GameStop? How do you know your share is a real share and not a CEBE?
|
||||
|
||||
Answer : YOU DON'T, AND IT DOESN'T FUCKING MATTER. ONE. BIT.
|
||||
|
||||
To the general public, your share is as good as my share. It holds the same rights as any other. If I hold 100 shares of the same 1 share, it doesn't matter one bit. I have the legal rights to 100 shares.
|
||||
|
||||
You know who it does matter to? The DTCC and its' participants. They have an accounting nightmare on their hands.
|
||||
|
||||
Imagine the DTCC selling the same lambo 100 times? Those 100 buyers believe they own a lambo, can sell the title to the lambo, heck they can even use the car as collateral! Well, what happens when Lamborghini decide to issue every single owner with a special keychain?
|
||||
|
||||
The DTCC can't replicate this keychain and you as an owner are still legally entitled to receive it.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/x6835ephtt871.png?width=679&format=png&auto=webp&s=8c81d33ae1ab915c044ac27395a8ff5d79d769ce)
|
||||
|
||||
This is the same situation as GameStop. You thought you were buying shares from a 'real shareholder'. You see a number of shares in your brokerage account. Why would you even think for one second that the shares aren't even there? You see no reason to ask for the validity of the delivery of certificated shares. It's also why brokers strongly advocate against clients demanding paper certificates of their shares. One firm in 1999 urged fellow DTCC participants to hike up fees for share certificates to hinder investors demanding proof of purchase.
|
||||
|
||||
So you bought some shares. You see the number. Where are they? Well, they're 'conveniently' held in an anonymous 'pool' of all of the other shares. It's like taking a bunch of green skittles (real shares) and red skittles (naked shares) and throwing them into a bag, mixing em' up and asking a colorblind person to pick one out?
|
||||
|
||||
To them? It's any old skittle.
|
||||
|
||||
Now what if all the red skittles all needed to be taken back?
|
||||
|
||||
What if the bag was FULL of red skittles.
|
||||
|
||||
*The only person who knew what color went where was the person holding the bag (The DTCC). (wow irony)*
|
||||
|
||||
________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
|
||||
|
||||
The CEBEs at the DTCC do not represent what you think of as 'shares'. Shares are a 'package of rights' attached to a public company. I hate to break it but this doesn't include the other millions of shares (beyond the public float) that are counterfeit in the system. Real shares also hold the right to any dividends distributed.
|
||||
|
||||
So say a company issued dividends that were shares to all shareholders? You hold one share? You get another one! The float is 100 million shares. The transfer agent would send a 'real' certificate made out to Cede and Co. for another 100 million shares to give to each and every share holder. What happens when an extra 400 million show up as being 'delivered' to shareholders?
|
||||
|
||||
Because the DTCC are complicit in ensuring that this fraud is covered up every time a shareholder tries to exercise of the rights attached to only 'real' shares. These CEBEs at the DTCC are NOT real shares and do not have the rights attached with them. HOWEVER, THEY HAVE TO MAINTAIN THE ILLUSION THAT THEY HAVE THESE RIGHTS TO NOT EXPOSE THIS FRAUD.
|
||||
|
||||
Why would they do this? THEY HAD TO. Otherwise, they would have to inform the owners of these other 300 million shares that what they had was:
|
||||
|
||||
- non-existent
|
||||
|
||||
- not actually real
|
||||
|
||||
- no rights to the dividend
|
||||
|
||||
- their money in the pockets of the seller
|
||||
|
||||
What happens if you want to sell your share. The DTCC won't turn around and say, '*you can't sell that because we never got good delivery of your purchase*'. The broker would have normally just sold your counterfeit shares to the next naïve investor. Have you ever heard of an investor who got a proxy solicitation statement that indicated that he or she can't vote his or her shares because they are counterfeit and there never were any voting rights attached? The DTCC has to maintain this illusion otherwise the reverse ponzi scheme will be revealed.
|
||||
|
||||
So what happens if an NFT is issued as a dividend? The DTCC can't 'cook the books' and are forced to reconcile the float back down to its' issued amount.
|
||||
|
||||
Shorts HAVE to close their positions. They need everyone to sell to cancel out their 'fake borrow'. What if no one sells? YOU GET THE FUCKING MOASS.
|
||||
|
||||
______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
|
||||
|
||||
So what did you actually buy?'
|
||||
|
||||
You bought the right to sell a Counterfeit Electronic Book Entry.
|
||||
|
||||
You bought a put option with no expiry date.
|
||||
|
||||
You were conned.
|
||||
|
||||
Does it matter? Not a fucking bit. You are entitled to the rights just as much as anyone else and the DTCC are going to have a really hard time getting you a dividend that isn't cash or stock.
|
||||
|
||||
And if they can't, they have to buy back your share at a price YOU STATE AND THERE IS NOTHING THEY CAN DO ABOUT IT.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/4ykybhextt871.png?width=941&format=png&auto=webp&s=790e1fb7bda1744e9c09d76896b34876d83bb888)
|
||||
|
||||
The irony? For them to cover, you're going to have to sell something that doesn't exist. That is...if you ever sell...
|
||||
|
||||
________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
|
||||
|
||||
*Part two?- How T+0 is the best case for the DTCC, naked short selling and outright fraud*
|
64
DD/2021-07-02-GameStop-Crypto-Dividend-will-NOT-be-an-NFT.md
Normal file
64
DD/2021-07-02-GameStop-Crypto-Dividend-will-NOT-be-an-NFT.md
Normal file
@ -0,0 +1,64 @@
|
||||
A GameStop crypto dividend will NOT be an NFT. Misinformation and incorrect terminology is running rampant, let's clear it up.
|
||||
==============================================================================================================================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/GooseG17](https://www.reddit.com/user/GooseG17/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/ocnofw/a_gamestop_crypto_dividend_will_not_be_an_nft/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
[Education 👨🏫 | Data 🔢](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22Education%20%F0%9F%91%A8%E2%80%8D%F0%9F%8F%AB%20%7C%20Data%20%F0%9F%94%A2%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||
I'm sorry for the condescending title. I promise I'm friendly, just stupid af.
|
||||
|
||||
Edit: This post assumes at least basic understanding of these technologies. Please read my linked post if you do not have that understanding yet.
|
||||
|
||||
I made a [post](https://old.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/oc7ji4/clarifying_nfts_what_they_are_good_for_and_what/) yesterday explaining blockchain, tokens and NFT's, but there are still posts hitting the front page that refer to "NFT dividends" surprised Pikachu, so let's make this nice and simple.
|
||||
|
||||
1. Overstock was the first to issue a crypto dividend. Their dividend token is *not* an NFT.
|
||||
|
||||
2. Dividends are usually cash or a security. Both are fungible, so a *non-fungible* token may not be considered a valid dividend (IANAL), while Overstock has shown that a *fungible* token will hold up in court.\
|
||||
Edit: Dividends can also be other forms of property, which likely invalidates my thoughts on validity. This point is flawed, but I'll leave it here for my deserved criticisms.
|
||||
|
||||
3. Giving shareholders, who all hold *identical shares* crypto rewards that are *not* identical would be unfair to shareholders. How would it be determined who gets the first token? Or 69, 420 or any other fun number? I think avoiding the issue entirely is the best course of action.
|
||||
|
||||
4. Transactions involving NFT's are *many times* more expensive than standard tokens due to their significantly greater complexity. Using them unnecessarily is wasteful at best, downright stupid at worst.
|
||||
|
||||
5. Using *non-fungible* tokens would mean that they can only be traded in whole increments, which is a limitation that makes no sense for this use case. For example, Overstock issued 0.1 tokens per share, which would not be possible with an NFT.
|
||||
|
||||
6. Trading NFT's isn't as simple as trading a standard token. We're already struggling with blockchain concepts, we don't need added complexity. It makes more sense to use a token that works exactly as you would expect a currency to work.
|
||||
|
||||
7. A fungible dividend could have more functional use, such as being directly usable as currency when shopping at GameStop. Indivisible tokens (NFT's) wouldn't work for this. What if all prices were multiples of $10? A more flexible option is necessary.
|
||||
|
||||
1. Imagine a GameStop cryptocurrency that can be used in an NFT marketplace (in-game items, etc.) or in-store. A dividend issuing that currency could give a massive boost in adoption.
|
||||
|
||||
8. The initial issuing of NFT's is *much* more expensive. I'm talking orders of magnitude. Each individual token will incur a large transaction fee, while a normal token can be one small transaction fee *per shareholder*. Sending three NFT's looks like this:\
|
||||
Send token 1 to x address\
|
||||
Send token 2 to x address\
|
||||
Send token 3 to x address
|
||||
|
||||
A normal token is always one transaction, no matter how many tokens are sent:\
|
||||
Send 3 tokens to x address
|
||||
|
||||
Making NFT minting more efficient is possible, but is not a native feature at this time. I don't think GameStop will waste money on unnecessary fees.
|
||||
|
||||
* * * * *
|
||||
|
||||
Seeing this sub, which is a bastion of truth in a world of lies, ignite with misinformation on a topic simpler than the complexities of the behind-the-scenes of the financial systems we are used to is a bit surprising. Let's make an effort to gain some wrinkles on blockchain and related topics, since it seems to be a major part of GameStop's plans for the future.
|
||||
|
||||
Smooth-brain summary:\
|
||||
There are many use cases for NFT's that GameStop can capitalize on, but I argue that a dividend is not one of them. A crypto dividend would make the most sense as an old-school, fungible token.
|
||||
|
||||
Edit: Added mention of securities as dividends. Thanks [u/fubar95](https://www.reddit.com/u/fubar95/)!
|
||||
|
||||
Edit 2: Property dividends were brought to my attention. My statements about legality are probably invalid. Thanks [/u/chickeni3oo](https://www.reddit.com/u/chickeni3oo/)!
|
||||
|
||||
Edit 3: To be perfectly clear, I am arguing that a dividend would not be an NFT, not that there will or will not be a dividend. Dividend talks are entirely speculation, and I am merely trying to clear up misunderstandings on what NFT's are good for.
|
||||
|
||||
Edit 4: Expanded point 3
|
||||
|
||||
Edit 5: Added point 7
|
||||
|
||||
Edit 6: Added point 7.1
|
||||
|
||||
Edit 7: Added point 8
|
@ -0,0 +1,12 @@
|
||||
Well, there it is. More math/evidence pointing to the use of Deep ITM CALLs and Deep OTM PUTs to hide SI in synthetics rather than covering their shorts. This was done through buy-write trades to dodge Reg Sho Close-Out obligations.
|
||||
========================================================================================================================================================================================================================================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/Criand](https://www.reddit.com/user/Criand/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/oc4f79/well_there_it_is_more_mathevidence_pointing_to/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
[Education 👨🏫 | Data 🔢](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22Education%20%F0%9F%91%A8%E2%80%8D%F0%9F%8F%AB%20%7C%20Data%20%F0%9F%94%A2%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://i.redd.it/z7k7jiowsq871.png)
|
68
DD/2021-07-04-Is-the-Bubble-Bursting.md
Normal file
68
DD/2021-07-04-Is-the-Bubble-Bursting.md
Normal file
@ -0,0 +1,68 @@
|
||||
Is the bubble bursting? It's all connected. GME will moon one way or another.
|
||||
=============================================================================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| Saved by [u/chanunnaki](https://www.reddit.com/user/chanunnaki/) | [Reddit](https://web.archive.org/web/20210705034232if_/https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/odsedt/is_the_bubble_bursting_its_all_connected_gme_will/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
[DD 👨🔬](https://web.archive.org/web/20210705034232/https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22DD%20%F0%9F%91%A8%E2%80%8D%F0%9F%94%AC%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||
I am an XXX holder and a QA rep. Numbers are my thing at work and analyzing the numbers on the market do not make sense right now. Please don't kick my ass over this not being charts of GME. I am thoroughly convinced that almost anything market related could lead to a GME squeeze.
|
||||
|
||||
By now, I'm sure everyone has read the house of cards, as well as, the everything short. GameStop is connected to everything as of this point. If we are talking about a 200,300,400 etc. % short interest, then everything leads back to GameStop. (or whatever entities are shorting GameStop) Downvote me if you'd like, but I believe the housing market could be our card to start our show if a dividend is not what first kicks us off.
|
||||
|
||||
*The Curtains are starting to be pulled open*
|
||||
|
||||
Why does this matter? Housing market doesn't affect GME?
|
||||
|
||||
FuCk YoU iT DoES. No but really, when these banks start losing money on defaults and risky mortgages, you really think they want to further their losses by dealing with some over leveraged funds? No. The house of cards is real, and it isn't if the house is coming down, its WHAT card will bring it down. Lets begin.
|
||||
|
||||
TLDR: Everyone is kicking the can down the road, even the government. I firmly believe we will see an economic collapse or correction of at least 35%. With GMEs negative beta and amount of short positions and naked shorting, should the housing market fall, it will create a ripple effect and the curtains for our show will be opened and it will begin. Inflation, unemployment, housing prices, CPI all rising but wages staying the same. The bubble is running out of room to expand.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://web.archive.org/web/20210705034232/https://preview.redd.it/eo5b5hxb29971.png?width=971&format=png&auto=webp&s=c85f49314cf5d1c902e0371fdced51f83e44e50c)
|
||||
|
||||
Lumber prices currently cut in half from peak.
|
||||
|
||||
People who say lumber prices are fueling the housing inflation crisis are wrong, but, people will still look at this as a negative sentiment and may begin looking for an out. (selling their property)
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://web.archive.org/web/20210705034232/https://preview.redd.it/vglf4o3a39971.png?width=926&format=png&auto=webp&s=410fd94e4d65d16dff7d9b13dcc251a7745a8365)
|
||||
|
||||
Mortgage applications rate YOY Refinancing
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://web.archive.org/web/20210705034232/https://preview.redd.it/dxbdc15m39971.png?width=920&format=png&auto=webp&s=bb04c2a7cb3286f5cbe9c96c5bf81694de110bff)
|
||||
|
||||
Mortgage applications rate YOY new purchase
|
||||
|
||||
What this means simply is everyone who can qualify/afford a home at this point is almost exhausted and new applicants are simply either not able to qualify or can't find a home with this inflated market. Eventually there will not be enough demand to satisfy once forbearance ends and supply hits the market.
|
||||
|
||||
Here we take a look at housing prices related to income YOY. This is wrong. We have wages either staying stagnant or dropping and everything else increasing? No get fucked.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://web.archive.org/web/20210705034232/https://preview.redd.it/4knhc92059971.png?width=916&format=png&auto=webp&s=c830f12787a33f9f729bf6e6198e05342ecf1abd)
|
||||
|
||||
Average Home Price YOY
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://web.archive.org/web/20210705034232/https://preview.redd.it/hjbhosr159971.png?width=855&format=png&auto=webp&s=8e869b0b98f985e63ea02aa4918b252c1c01ff65)
|
||||
|
||||
Wage Growth Tracker
|
||||
|
||||
The media is filling our heads with lies of a housing shortage but that is quite the contrary. People who SHOULD have been foreclosed on or otherwise not able to meet requirements, were not due to the forbearance, thus supply has not gone up. *(Don't get me wrong, we needed this badly with how things went last year, but they should have ended sooner than all of this. If you are someone who needs it and uses it responsibly, you have my blessing)*. I know a lot of people who misused this setting and instead of saving that money they weren't spending, they bought new shit like guns and cars etc. The truth is, supply of houses are about to be high.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://web.archive.org/web/20210705034232/https://preview.redd.it/r7k9x7h869971.png?width=1258&format=png&auto=webp&s=cde9fc443d6734417050ffc709d29d061c95c237)
|
||||
|
||||
New housing starts
|
||||
|
||||
Here you can see that in fact housing development is at highest rates, or equal to in years. So what happens when all this new housing hits the market, forbearance ends and foreclosures begin? Well a lot of people lose their ass. Primarily the people who bought the top and now owe 400k on a home that's worth 360k. Again, this becomes the banks responsibility should the buyer not be able to weather the storm.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://web.archive.org/web/20210705034232/https://preview.redd.it/sxyy8x3l79971.png?width=1454&format=png&auto=webp&s=da2e6c2312a86ccd2f76fcc822c08604bf351ceb)
|
||||
|
||||
CPI Chart
|
||||
|
||||
Again we have a CPI Chart that only rises, which wouldn't be a problem, but oh wait, wages are stagnant or decreasing.
|
||||
|
||||
Here is one last visual before I go to dinner with my family and watch fireworks.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://web.archive.org/web/20210705034232/https://preview.redd.it/l9s45qsr89971.png?width=1133&format=png&auto=webp&s=40c882918f915d32c0af437f13001dd281abe9a5)
|
||||
|
||||
Delinquencies 30, 60, 90 days late all subject to foreclosure if the buyer cannot keep up.
|
48
DD/2021-07-04-Peek-a-Boo-I-See-You-79M-Hidden-Shorts.md
Normal file
48
DD/2021-07-04-Peek-a-Boo-I-See-You-79M-Hidden-Shorts.md
Normal file
@ -0,0 +1,48 @@
|
||||
Peek-a-boo! I see you 79M hidden shorts!
|
||||
========================================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/WhatCanIMakeToday](https://www.reddit.com/user/WhatCanIMakeToday/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/odsded/peekaboo_i_see_you_79m_hidden_shorts/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
[DD 👨🔬](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22DD%20%F0%9F%91%A8%E2%80%8D%F0%9F%94%AC%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||
tl;dr: I found around 79M can kicked shares in Jan 2021 using the married put approach. We can see those cans kicked out 1, 2, 3, 6, 12, and 24 months from Jan 2021 at various options expirations.
|
||||
|
||||
After poking around in ToS, I found that I can see exactly when Puts where opened by tracking the daily Open Interest for a put. See my previous post here: <https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/ocen11/historical_gme_71421_options_oi_to_see_how_many/>
|
||||
|
||||
I needed the data in CSV format so I could play with it. So I bought the GME Options Data (surprisingly cheap, about $21) from <https://www.historicaloptiondata.com/> for 2021 up to end of June.
|
||||
|
||||
I then filtered out the lowest strike Put option for each of the major options expirations (Feb, March, April, Jan 2022 leap, and Jan 2023 leap) during that time and charted the daily Open Interest Change.
|
||||
|
||||
[Daily OI Change for Lowest Strike Puts](https://preview.redd.it/mfk5o6z1r8971.png?width=1097&format=png&auto=webp&s=26b7024d5072bbb0683b9d9c1a3d34e596ddfa4e)
|
||||
|
||||
Guess what? Most of these low strike puts were opened around GME's Jan run up!
|
||||
|
||||
*Wut mean?* Superstonk has been discussing how married puts are used to hide naked shorts in deep OTM puts so this data shows us exactly how far out they kicked those Jan naked short cans down the road AND we can see which expirations have them. We can see pretty much every major options expiration has a ton of new openings in Jan so those cans were kicked 1, 2, 3, 6, 12, and 24 months out (Feb ,March, April, July, Jan 2022, and Jan 2023, respectively).
|
||||
|
||||
| *Option* | *As of 1/4/2021* | *As of 2/1/2021* |
|
||||
| --- | --- | --- |
|
||||
| Feb $1 Put | 0 | 52,193 |
|
||||
| March | 0 (n/a) | 32,907 |
|
||||
| April $0.50 Put | 510 | 43,892 |
|
||||
| July $0.50 Put | 168 | 71,709 |
|
||||
| Jan 2022 $0.50 Put | 2,441 | 106,082 |
|
||||
| Jan 2023 $2 Put | 105 | 16,585 |
|
||||
| Total | 3,224 | 323,368 |
|
||||
|
||||
*Do you see what I see?* There's about 320,000 options opened in Jan 2021 to hide naked shorts and kick those cans *just at the cheapest strike!* That's the equivalent of 32,000,000 (32M) shares!
|
||||
|
||||
*Wut about other low strikes?* I filtered the options data for two snapshots in time: Jan 4, 2021 (before can kicking) and Feb 1, 2021 (after can kicking). Out of those snapshots, I summed the total open interest for all options with a strike price less than or equal to $20. Here's the results:
|
||||
|
||||
| | 1/4/2021 | 2/1/2021 |
|
||||
| --- | --- | --- |
|
||||
| Total Put OI for all strikes <= $20 | 309,563 | 1,101,826 |
|
||||
|
||||
The difference there is 792,263 OI. Basically just shy of 800k new put open interest at super low OTM strikes representing over 79M shares kicked down the road in Jan 2021! Half of those are hidden in the lowest strike alone.
|
||||
|
||||
Happy July 4th! We're gonna have a blast!
|
||||
|
||||
EDIT: Wowza! Thanks everyone! I've never had this many upvotes or awards before! You are all amazing! I learned more in the past 6 months about trading and markets from Superstonk than in decades of trading. I'm happy I can give back to the community!
|
@ -0,0 +1,72 @@
|
||||
6/8 Delta Neutral Update - Flash Crash Preparedness Plan
|
||||
========================================================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/yelyah2](https://www.reddit.com/user/yelyah2/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nvl0sy/68_delta_neutral_update_flash_crash_preparedness/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
[Education 👨🏫 | Data 🔢](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22Education%20%F0%9F%91%A8%E2%80%8D%F0%9F%8F%AB%20%7C%20Data%20%F0%9F%94%A2%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||
TLDR: If there is a flash crash tomorrow, don't panic. Expect for it to bounce off the $160 price point.
|
||||
|
||||
Edit: Added the Maximum Gamma point to the graph below.
|
||||
|
||||
Recap
|
||||
|
||||
My work is built on the idea that the market is largely unpredictable, but one particular kind of behavior is certain - hedgies like to hedge. It's written into their algorithms. Specifically, they like to delta hedge and gamma hedge. This work tries to profit on this one particular type of buying/selling behavior. I have a little data dictionary at the bottom if you need a refresher on terminology.
|
||||
|
||||
This post is mostly an update to the delta neutral (underlying price where the total market delta is zero). My general theory is that as the underlying approaches the delta neutral, the call options have a flash sale. As people buy up the call options, MM have to buy the stocks, which shoots the price back up.
|
||||
|
||||
Usual Graph Update
|
||||
|
||||
Here's the graph you're used to seeing, and it includes the Close Price (green), delta neutral (blue), gamma neutral (orange), and gamma maximum (red)
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/fefq4x4a16471.png?width=911&format=png&auto=webp&s=9834b4d8bb54e803a45be68746d35629ce15504d)
|
||||
|
||||
GME 1/4/2021 - 6/8/2021
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/8o5n1n5z16471.png?width=911&format=png&auto=webp&s=a6d4979f5cbd45d5a74b88a9c68ab0ac0896003d)
|
||||
|
||||
GME 1/4/2021 - 6/8/2021 - Log Based 10 Scale
|
||||
|
||||
Few notes:
|
||||
|
||||
- She's moving on up!!
|
||||
|
||||
- Delta Discussion:
|
||||
|
||||
- The delta neutral today is $157.04, and I'm projecting it will be $159.70 tomorrow. That means if there's a flash crash tomorrow, don't panic, it will probably bounce off that point like it has in the past.
|
||||
|
||||
- If you're new to my posts, I started posting when the price was dropping on 5/10. I wanted to reassure everyone that the price would probably bounce off the $143 mark, then warned everyone that it may bounce off the $135 mark the next day. She's been going up ever since! Links to old posts if you're interested:
|
||||
|
||||
- [5/10 Update](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/n9cutk/gme_bouncing_off_delta_neutral_price_today/)
|
||||
|
||||
- [5/11 Update](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/na952e/gme_delta_neutral_price_update/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3)
|
||||
|
||||
- If the price drops below the delta neutral price, then pressure starts to build-up. If the delta neutral doesn't drop with the price, then the underlying price usually bounces back over the delta neutral, like what you can see in February.
|
||||
|
||||
- Note this is mostly how I trade on my model. I watch for equities that drop below the delta neutral. The other one I trade on is gamma spikes...
|
||||
|
||||
- Gamma Discussion:
|
||||
|
||||
- Added the maximum gamma price point to the graph, which is currently sitting at $301.
|
||||
|
||||
- See my last update for a discussion on this new indicator: [Maximum Gamma Indicator](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/ntw1h1/662021_gamma_update_review_of_gamma_maximums/)
|
||||
|
||||
- It seems like these significant spikes run along side the gamma maximums price points (see the January/March squeezes), and we're currently in one of these runs alongside the underlying price with the maximum gamma.
|
||||
|
||||
- No gamma spikes today for GME, but that's ok, I can feel they are coming!
|
||||
|
||||
I hope we all have an easy day tomorrow with no crazy turbulence/crashes. See you out there tomorrow!
|
||||
|
||||
*Data Dictionary*
|
||||
|
||||
- Delta Neutral: price that creates a total market delta of 0 across all GME options (all expiration dates) for a given date. General observation is it acts like a theoretical floor (although the price can go lower, as seen in February). My theory is that as the underlying approaches the delta neutral, call options go on sale. As people buy call options, MM have to buy the stocks which increases the price. Most stocks like to hang out above the delta neutral, some dip below and create pressure that can shoot them back over the delta neutral (like what happened in February), and some like to hang out below (like the VIX).
|
||||
|
||||
- Gamma Neutral: price that creates a total market gamma of 0 across all GME options (all expiration dates) for a given date. General observation is it acts like support/resistance between the delta neutral and the underlying, and typically bounces around between the two prices for most plan (like we have seen with GME since April). It also goes crazy in periods of high volatility (as you can see by the infinite spikes).
|
||||
|
||||
- Gamma Maximum: Underlying price that results in the highest level of total market gamma. This is a new indicator, suggested by another redditor, pennyether. This price point seems to act as a ceiling, but then an accelerant if the price can break through this barrier.
|
||||
|
||||
Disclaimer: I'm just a person that likes to play with options data and builds models to trade for a hobby. I have no experience trading professionally or offering any advice to anyone. Nothing is certain in trading. It's all probabilities and what increases/decreases your chance at a profit. This is just one indicator for one type of price movement, and there are many other indicators that can help you make investment decisions.
|
@ -0,0 +1,60 @@
|
||||
Delta Neutral Update - $176 Floor Today
|
||||
=======================================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/yelyah2](https://www.reddit.com/user/yelyah2/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nwrzba/delta_neutral_update_176_floor_today/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
[Education 👨🏫 | Data 🔢](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22Education%20%F0%9F%91%A8%E2%80%8D%F0%9F%8F%AB%20%7C%20Data%20%F0%9F%94%A2%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||
TLDR: If you believe in my delta neutral theory, the current floor for this crash is $176.
|
||||
|
||||
There are a lot of very valid theories out there on the floor to this crash, and here's mine that has worked pretty well in the past.
|
||||
|
||||
Recap
|
||||
|
||||
My work is built on the idea that the market is largely unpredictable, but one particular kind of behavior is certain - hedgies like to hedge. It's written into their algorithms. Specifically, they like to delta hedge and gamma hedge. This work tries to profit on this one particular type of buying/selling behavior. I have a little data dictionary at the bottom if you need a refresher on terminology.
|
||||
|
||||
This post is mostly an update to the delta neutral (underlying price where the total market delta is zero). My general theory is that as the underlying approaches the delta neutral a few things happen:
|
||||
|
||||
- There is a large influx of call option purchases, because:
|
||||
|
||||
- The call prices get less expensive as the underlying price approaches the delta neutral
|
||||
|
||||
- Stock prices usually rebound/revert back to the mean after large crashes, so the price often rebounds anyways.
|
||||
|
||||
- With the large influx of call volume, market makers have to start buying stocks to delta hedge, which turns the price back around and creates an upward trajectory.
|
||||
|
||||
- Historically, you can see that GME often bounces off the delta neutral prices during drops. The exception is the February drop. When the underlying goes below the delta neutral price, a lot of pressure builds up that results in a significant increase when that pressure is released.
|
||||
|
||||
- Note that this is how I trade my model. I look for equities that fall below the delta neutral.
|
||||
|
||||
- If you're interested in prior posts that helped reassure during the dips, here you go:
|
||||
|
||||
- [5/10 Post](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/n9cutk/gme_bouncing_off_delta_neutral_price_today/)
|
||||
|
||||
- [5/11 Post](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/na952e/gme_delta_neutral_price_update/)
|
||||
|
||||
Graph Update
|
||||
|
||||
Here's the graph you're used to seeing, and it includes the Close Price (green), delta neutral (blue), gamma neutral (orange), and max pain (light blue)
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/6kfa4wojtg471.png?width=910&format=png&auto=webp&s=c43b15b11696f544540f536b68020061204961ff)
|
||||
|
||||
GME 1/4/2021 - 6/10/2021
|
||||
|
||||
The delta neutral through 6/9 was $173, and I am projecting a delta neutral today of $176.
|
||||
|
||||
Don't panic. Just buy the dip.
|
||||
|
||||
*Data Dictionary*
|
||||
|
||||
- Delta Neutral: price that creates a total market delta of 0 across all GME options (all expiration dates) for a given date. General observation is it acts like a theoretical floor (although the price can go lower, as seen in February). My theory is that as the underlying approaches the delta neutral, call options go on sale. As people buy call options, MM have to buy the stocks which increases the price. Most stocks like to hang out above the delta neutral, some dip below and create pressure that can shoot them back over the delta neutral (like what happened in February), and some like to hang out below (like the VIX).
|
||||
|
||||
- Gamma Neutral: price that creates a total market gamma of 0 across all GME options (all expiration dates) for a given date. General observation is it acts like support/resistance between the delta neutral and the underlying, and typically bounces around between the two prices for most plan (like we have seen with GME since April). It also goes crazy in periods of high volatility (as you can see by the infinite spikes).
|
||||
|
||||
- Max Pain: price that creates largest loss for option buyers and largest gain for option sellers. This is a controversial topic because underlying prices can drift towards this point. There are typically large areas around the max pain that doesn't make a lot of difference to the profits for option buyer/sellers. It can be used to help gauge where the equilibrium of the options data is, but there is often a wide range around this price point that does not meaningfully affect MM profits.
|
||||
|
||||
Disclaimer: I'm just a person that likes to play with options data and builds models to trade for a hobby. I have no experience trading professionally or offering any advice to anyone. Nothing is certain in trading. It's all probabilities and what increases/decreases your chance at a profit. This is just one indicator for one type of price movement, and there are many other indicators that can help you make investment decisions.
|
@ -0,0 +1,56 @@
|
||||
Delta Neutral Update - IF the price still drops today...
|
||||
========================================================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/yelyah2](https://www.reddit.com/user/yelyah2/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nxigxe/delta_neutral_update_if_the_price_still_drops/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
[Education 👨🏫 | Data 🔢](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22Education%20%F0%9F%91%A8%E2%80%8D%F0%9F%8F%AB%20%7C%20Data%20%F0%9F%94%A2%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||
TLDR: The price can still drop today, and IF it does, my prediction is it COULD drop as low as the $175 delta neutral floor before rebounding. Note that this is not a prediction that it will drop. I'm just trying to give reassurance to anyone worried about a significant drop.
|
||||
|
||||
Here's the graph you're used to seeing, and it includes the Close Price (green), delta neutral (blue), gamma neutral (orange), and max pain (light blue) .
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/abmgtqgpkn471.png?width=910&format=png&auto=webp&s=611cc53e7d49fb8bde10678b1193a26eb5be558d)
|
||||
|
||||
1/4/2021 - 6/10/2021
|
||||
|
||||
The Delta Neutral was at $172 through EOD yesterday, and I'm projecting a Delta neutral of $175 today.
|
||||
|
||||
Don't panic. Just buy the dip.
|
||||
|
||||
Recap
|
||||
|
||||
My work is built on the idea that the market is largely unpredictable, but one particular kind of behavior is certain - hedgies gonna hedge. It's written into their algorithms. Specifically, they like to delta hedge and gamma hedge. This work tries to profit on this one particular type of buying/selling behavior. I have a little data dictionary at the bottom if you need a refresher on terminology.
|
||||
|
||||
This post is mostly an update to the delta neutral (underlying price where the total market delta is zero). My general theory is that as the underlying approaches the delta neutral a few things happen:
|
||||
|
||||
- There is a large influx of call option purchases, because:
|
||||
|
||||
- The call prices get less expensive as the underlying price approaches the delta neutral
|
||||
|
||||
- Stock prices usually rebound/revert back to the mean after large crashes, so the price often rebounds anyways.
|
||||
|
||||
- With the large influx of call volume, market makers have to start buying stocks to delta hedge, which turns the price back around and creates an upward trajectory.
|
||||
|
||||
- Historically, you can see that GME often bounces off the delta neutral prices during drops. The exception is the February drop. When the underlying goes below the delta neutral price, a lot of pressure builds up that results in a significant increase when that pressure is released.
|
||||
|
||||
- Note that this is how I trade my model. I look for equities that fall below the delta neutral.
|
||||
|
||||
- If you're interested in prior posts that helped reassure during the dips, here you go:
|
||||
|
||||
- [5/10 Post](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/n9cutk/gme_bouncing_off_delta_neutral_price_today/)
|
||||
|
||||
- [5/11 Post](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/na952e/gme_delta_neutral_price_update/)
|
||||
|
||||
*Data Dictionary*
|
||||
|
||||
- Delta Neutral: price that creates a total market delta of 0 across all GME options (all expiration dates) for a given date. General observation is it acts like a theoretical floor (although the price can go lower, as seen in February). My theory is that as the underlying approaches the delta neutral, call options go on sale. As people buy call options, MM have to buy the stocks which increases the price. Most stocks like to hang out above the delta neutral, some dip below and create pressure that can shoot them back over the delta neutral (like what happened in February), and some like to hang out below (like the VIX).
|
||||
|
||||
- Gamma Neutral: price that creates a total market gamma of 0 across all GME options (all expiration dates) for a given date. General observation is it acts like support/resistance between the delta neutral and the underlying, and typically bounces around between the two prices for most plan (like we have seen with GME since April). It also goes crazy in periods of high volatility (as you can see by the infinite spikes).
|
||||
|
||||
- Max Pain: price that creates largest loss for option buyers and largest gain for option sellers. This is a controversial topic because underlying prices can drift towards this point. There are typically large areas around the max pain that doesn't make a lot of difference to the profits for option buyer/sellers. It can be used to help gauge where the equilibrium of the options data is, but there is often a wide range around this price point that does not meaningfully affect MM profits.
|
||||
|
||||
Disclaimer: I'm just a person that likes to play with options data and builds models to trade for a hobby. I have no experience trading professionally or offering any advice to anyone. Nothing is certain in trading. It's all probabilities and what increases/decreases your chance at a profit. This is just one indicator for one type of price movement, and there are many other indicators that can help you make investment decisions.
|
66
DD/Gamma-Signals-by-yelyah2/2021-06-14-Delta-Gamma-Update.md
Normal file
66
DD/Gamma-Signals-by-yelyah2/2021-06-14-Delta-Gamma-Update.md
Normal file
@ -0,0 +1,66 @@
|
||||
Delta/Gamma Update & The Role of a Critic
|
||||
=========================================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/yelyah2](https://www.reddit.com/user/yelyah2/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nzyji4/deltagamma_update_the_role_of_a_critic/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
[Education 👨🏫 | Data 🔢](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22Education%20%F0%9F%91%A8%E2%80%8D%F0%9F%8F%AB%20%7C%20Data%20%F0%9F%94%A2%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||
*Graph Update*
|
||||
|
||||
Here's the graph you're used to seeing, and it includes the Close Price (green), delta neutral (blue), gamma neutral (orange), and max pain (light blue) .
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/97mi0v0sxa571.png?width=910&format=png&auto=webp&s=c3ca835309cae2a0f9c3a22534de8d98f3f94cec)
|
||||
|
||||
GME 1/4/2021 - 6/14/2021 - Log Base 10 Scale
|
||||
|
||||
I'm really excited to share that I bought a massive options database, with all optionable stocks going back to 2007! I'm in the process of transitioning my code over to this new vendor, making some enhancements to the model I've been wanting to do, and running the algo. I'm Excited to see how my indicators work on prior short squeezes (like the VW squeeze). I look forward to sharing my research!
|
||||
|
||||
My work is built on the idea that the market is largely unpredictable, but one particular kind of behavior is certain - hedgies gonna hedge. It's written into their algorithms. Specifically, they like to delta hedge and gamma hedge. This work tries to profit on this one particular type of buying/selling behavior. I have a little data dictionary at the bottom if you need a refresher on terminology.
|
||||
|
||||
There isn't a lot to note today for these specific indicators, but wanted to give you an updated. Instead, I just have something to say to support my amazing, fellow DD/TA friends that are putting out incredible new ideas.
|
||||
|
||||
*Quick Chat*
|
||||
|
||||
I think like we may need to have a little chat. I say it at the bottom of each post, but these indicators just help give help identifying if the probability of a certain event occurring has increased. None of my fellow DD/TA'ers are giving you prophecies. There are too many variables to incorporate, and the human element, which makes it impossible to tell you any price movement is 100% certain.
|
||||
|
||||
Similarly, sports analysts put a lot of work incorporating all kinds of factors into the chance a certain team winning a game, and incorporate all kinds of factors (weather, injuries, home field advantage, etc.). However, any team can win on Any Given Sunday.
|
||||
|
||||
For example, every analyst predicted the 7-9 Seahawks would lose to the 11-5 Saints in the 2010 NFC Wild Card Game, but none of them realized the secret was that Marshawn Lynch ate his special skittles, and resulted in Beast Quake (best running touch down ever).
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/akg7mts0za571.png?width=1000&format=png&auto=webp&s=c3ea9c4b163e260867e450596d9b99786124aa78)
|
||||
|
||||
2010 Beast Quake
|
||||
|
||||
Now I could start predicting with some certainty that when Marshawn Lynch ate his special skittles, the Seahawks would win. That would work with some certainty, and my success rate in using that indicator was higher than with other factors (or maybe in addition to those other factors).
|
||||
|
||||
Now say that I knew Marshawn Lynch had extra special Skittles before Super Bowl XLIX, so I knew the chances were much higher that the Seahawks would win, and Marshawn Lynch was ready to run in the game winning touchdown.
|
||||
|
||||
HOWEVER, no one could have expected that fricking PETE CARROL WOULD DECIDE TO PASS IT INSTEAD OF GIVING IT TO SKITTLE-MUCHING-MARSHAWN AT THE ENDZONE FOR THE GAME-WINNING PLAY.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/ueou8kpa0b571.png?width=1024&format=png&auto=webp&s=c3036caf38c54c56a7c45690aade6a312773e624)
|
||||
|
||||
Super Bowl XLIX - Heartbreak
|
||||
|
||||
So does that mean I was wrong about using special Skittles as a helpful indicator for a Seahawks win? No! Because the human-element (i.e. stupid Seahawks coaches) adds unpredictability. I won't ditch that indicator, but will work to refine that indicator or use it in conjunction with others.
|
||||
|
||||
We're all working to improve and become more accurate, so be kind if you think a DD/TA wasn't perfect for the day. Ape no fight Ape. I support every one of my incredibly smart, new, GME friends that are putting out new ideas.
|
||||
|
||||
So I will just leave you with some Ratatouille to think on as you read through posts this evening:
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/cwb4c7fb1b571.png?width=530&format=png&auto=webp&s=d028013629530a4e1ed0f585bb56677e600cfae1)
|
||||
|
||||
Ratatouille - The Role of a Critic
|
||||
|
||||
*Data Dictionary*
|
||||
|
||||
- Delta Neutral: price that creates a total market delta of 0 across all GME options (all expiration dates) for a given date. General observation is it acts like a theoretical floor (although the price can go lower, as seen in February). My theory is that as the underlying approaches the delta neutral, call options go on sale. As people buy call options, MM have to buy the stocks which increases the price. Most stocks like to hang out above the delta neutral, some dip below and create pressure that can shoot them back over the delta neutral (like what happened in February), and some like to hang out below (like the VIX).
|
||||
|
||||
- Gamma Neutral: price that creates a total market gamma of 0 across all GME options (all expiration dates) for a given date. General observation is it acts like support/resistance between the delta neutral and the underlying, and typically bounces around between the two prices for most plan (like we have seen with GME since April). It also goes crazy in periods of high volatility (as you can see by the infinite spikes).
|
||||
|
||||
- Max Pain: price that creates largest loss for option buyers and largest gain for option sellers. This is a controversial topic because underlying prices can drift towards this point. There are typically large areas around the max pain that doesn't make a lot of difference to the profits for option buyer/sellers. It can be used to help gauge where the equilibrium of the options data is, but there is often a wide range around this price point that does not meaningfully affect MM profits.
|
||||
|
||||
Disclaimer: I'm just a person that likes to play with options data and builds models to trade for a hobby. I have no experience trading professionally or offering any advice to anyone. Nothing is certain in trading. It's all probabilities and what increases/decreases your chance at a profit. This is just one indicator for one type of price movement, and there are many other indicators that can help you make investment decisions.
|
200
DD/Gamma-Signals-by-yelyah2/2021-06-28-Delta-Neutral-Update.md
Normal file
200
DD/Gamma-Signals-by-yelyah2/2021-06-28-Delta-Neutral-Update.md
Normal file
@ -0,0 +1,200 @@
|
||||
Delta Neutral Update: Any meaningful underlying price increase today will significantly increase our chances at a squeeze in the near future.
|
||||
=============================================================================================================================================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/yelyah2](https://www.reddit.com/user/yelyah2/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/o9qb4n/delta_neutral_update_any_meaningful_underlying/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
[DD 👨🔬](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22DD%20%F0%9F%91%A8%E2%80%8D%F0%9F%94%AC%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||
TLDR: any meaningful increase today (>2%) will significantly increase the chances of a squeeze in our near future.
|
||||
|
||||
Edit1: We obviously finished at ~1.8% today instead of 2%. Green is green and any increase is good (like always). Think of it like we were playing in a special bonus round today that would've quadruple our daily GME points, and we probably didn't get those bonus point. Still a good day! I'm excited to process my options data dump when I get it in an hour or so, and will be sure to share the results.
|
||||
|
||||
Edit2: AH price movements still definitely help! My options data dumps are near end of day (~15 min before close), so I won't see the impact of AH movement when I process tonight, but it's all still good!
|
||||
|
||||
Edit3: Just to be clear, I was not predicting a >2% increase today. My sensitivity testing goes from 2% to 10%, so I was saying that my sensitivity tests show even a 2% increase will get some awesome bonus delta today (more than usual). Since we were at ~1.8% today, that doesn't mean we get nothing. I'm sure we will still get bonus delta, but my sensitivity tests just didn't go below 2%, so I couldn't tell you what was it was. We're good though! It was a good day!
|
||||
|
||||
I apologize for my absence. I've been on vacation for the first time since 2019! California was beautiful. Definitely making me think about a move :)
|
||||
|
||||
Since it's been a couple of weeks, I'll do a full refresher below.
|
||||
|
||||
*Background*
|
||||
|
||||
My work is built on the idea that the market is largely unpredictable, but one particular kind of behavior is certain - hedgies gonna hedge. It's written into their algorithms. Specifically, they like to delta hedge and gamma hedge. This work tries to profit on this one particular type of buying/selling behavior.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/ck93r8xvg1871.png?width=168&format=png&auto=webp&s=ab98f88b94e4fa0198174029e71061abe2891686)
|
||||
|
||||
Hedgie doing its Hedgin'
|
||||
|
||||
There is a new methodology/assumptions section at the bottom that gives my method in full detail. This section gives a high-level of the key pieces of the analysis described in this post.
|
||||
|
||||
Delta
|
||||
|
||||
The Delta of an option represents the expected change to an option's price based on a $1 change in the security's underlying price. For example, if the GME underlying price is at $100,000,000 and a GME $102,000,000 strike call has a delta of 0.2, then that call option price will increase by $0.2 if the GME underlying price moves up to $100,000,001. Note that the price is also affected by gamma so will actually be higher than the $0.2 price increase estimated by delta, which will be covered later.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/ugpgf1wjg1871.png?width=987&format=png&auto=webp&s=8ecf759c7f1119d70b9f5765674590f866168fb5)
|
||||
|
||||
Call versus Put Delta by Strike Price for an Underlying @ $100
|
||||
|
||||
Delta hedging is a trading strategy employed by market makers (MM's) to minimalize the directional risk associated with price movements in the underlying security. Traditionally, you can think of a MM buying 20 (0.2 x 100) stocks of the underlying security if the price increases by $1 (using the example above). However, it's important to note that hedge funds often use other derivatives to hedge, not just buying/selling stocks because it requires less capital to do so. However, these indicators can be used as a directional proxy for some of the MM behavior as the underlying price increases/decreases.
|
||||
|
||||
The total market delta share equivalent represents the sum of delta x OI across all strikes/expiration prices in a given trading day. I will say it one more time, hedge funds are not actually holding this number of shares on a given day to hedge. They often hedge with other market derivatives. However, it can give us an indicator for hedge funds buying/selling underlying equity relativities.
|
||||
|
||||
Delta Neutral
|
||||
|
||||
The Delta Neutral price that creates a total market delta of 0 across all GME options (all expiration dates) for a given date. It can also be though of as the intersection of a supply/demand curve for hedged stocks. See the "Methodology and Assumptions" section for full detail on how I develop this indicator.
|
||||
|
||||
Notes below for general options on how the delta neutral interacts with the underlying price:
|
||||
|
||||
- There is a large influx of call option purchases, because:
|
||||
|
||||
- The call prices get less expensive as the underlying price approaches the delta neutral
|
||||
|
||||
- Stock prices usually rebound/revert back to the mean after large crashes, so the price often rebounds anyways.
|
||||
|
||||
- With the large influx of call volume, market makers have to start buying stocks to delta hedge, which turns the price back around and creates an upward trajectory.
|
||||
|
||||
- Important note that hedgies often hedge with derivatives instead of buying stocks, so there isn't a 1-to-1 relationship between the delta and shares bought/sold by hedge funds.
|
||||
|
||||
- Historically, you can see that GME often bounces off the delta neutral prices during drops. The exception is the February drop. When the underlying goes below the delta neutral price, a lot of pressure builds up that results in a significant increase when that pressure is released.
|
||||
|
||||
- Note this is the primary way that I trade my model. I made a scanner that looks for equities that fall below the delta neutral.
|
||||
|
||||
Gamma
|
||||
|
||||
The Gamma of an option represents the rate of change of the Delta of an option with respect to a $1 underlying price movement. From our example above, if the GME underlying price is at $100,000,000 and a GME $102,000,000 strike call has a delta of 0.2 and a gamma of 0.05, then that call option price would actually increase by $0.25 (0.2 + 0.05) if the GME underlying price moves up to $100,000,001.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/14jxduhrk1871.png?width=670&format=png&auto=webp&s=b3d64c2e70ae8961359d1b1c5f708ea70f1ed9c8)
|
||||
|
||||
MM also hedge against gamma risk, but the impact of buying/selling securities to hedge is often much lower than the impact of delta hedging (also remember that they use derivatives to hedge too). However, you are probably familiar with gamma because of the "gamma squeeze" that happened back in January. A gamma squeeze happens when the underlying stock price begins to go up very quickly in a short period of time. This forces more buying activity from rapidly increasing deltas/hedging, which continues to inflate the price.
|
||||
|
||||
Gamma Neutral
|
||||
|
||||
The Gamma Neutral price that creates a total market gamma of 0 across all GME options (all expiration dates) for a given date. See the "Methodology and Assumptions" section for full detail on how I develop this indicator.
|
||||
|
||||
General notes below for observations on how this indicator behaves:
|
||||
|
||||
- It acts like support/resistance between the delta neutral and the underlying, and typically bounces around between the two prices for most symbols (like we have seen with GME since April).
|
||||
|
||||
- It also goes crazy in periods of high volatility, as you can see by the very higher spikes.
|
||||
|
||||
- A gamma spike indicates the presence of POTENTAILLY slippery option market conditions, which COULD lead to a gamma squeeze. There were certainly spikes present back in January, but we had a few one-day false starts this last month.
|
||||
|
||||
- They are often triggered by high price movement in a day, which can lead to continue high growth if underlying volume supports it.
|
||||
|
||||
- Gamma spikes can also be triggered by unusual options purchases during the day. These are the one ones to find, because you can often catch the high increase waves before they actually start.
|
||||
|
||||
- If I'm trading this indicator, I often either wait for a gamma spike to continue for 2 days in a row and supported by increased volume. Otherwise, I invest straight away if I find a gamma spike just based on options movement (i.e. no significant underlying increase yet).
|
||||
|
||||
*Delta/Gamma Neutral Graph*
|
||||
|
||||
Here's the graph you're used to seeing, and it includes the Close Price (green), delta neutral (blue), and gamma neutral (orange), on a log-based 10 scale so you can see those spikes in all their glory.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/3w8in2bxn1871.png?width=910&format=png&auto=webp&s=8ee0e0f575df7fcc96a93eef105b6107024dc69a)
|
||||
|
||||
GME 1/4/2021 - 6/25/2021
|
||||
|
||||
A few things that happened the last two weeks:
|
||||
|
||||
- The delta neutral floor continues to rise (yay!) It's currently at $176.
|
||||
|
||||
- GME likes to hang out between 10% and 30% higher than the delta neutral price if nothing unusual happens, which gives a range of $194 - $230 for the underlying.
|
||||
|
||||
- GME's high is 214% higher than the DN back on 1/27, so certainly able to break higher, but it is hard to break through that resistance.
|
||||
|
||||
- No significant action with gamma since 6/8
|
||||
|
||||
*Total Market Delta*
|
||||
|
||||
The graph below summaries the total market delta share equivalents (dark blue) versus the underlying close price (green). See the "Delta" section above for information on what the total market delta share equivalent amounts represent.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/valw8po1s1871.png?width=909&format=png&auto=webp&s=5241a6231a0d442eb3cfa268e37ea5957827fbf5)
|
||||
|
||||
GME Total Market Delta Share Equivalent versus Underlying Close
|
||||
|
||||
You will notice above that the total market delta increased significantly BEFORE the January and February/March squeezes. This helped to contribute to the buying pressure to push GME upwards.
|
||||
|
||||
The graph below provides a sensitivity test for the total market delta share equivalent (blue) based on +5% (light red) and -5% (dark red) shifts to the underlying price.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/g01npebyr1871.png?width=909&format=png&auto=webp&s=3720955ff7a40a4e03937176115c34e9f736301c)
|
||||
|
||||
+/- 5% Underlying Price Sensitivity Test
|
||||
|
||||
Now you can see that the impact to the total market delta increases significantly BEFORE large changes to the total market delta share equivalent, which happens BEFORE large changes to the underlying price.
|
||||
|
||||
Note that there are also potential for large DECREASES if there is also a potential for large INCREASES. The total market delta sensitivity tests have also been indicating a potential for a large decrease as the market has been dropping the last few weeks.
|
||||
|
||||
For example, back in January:
|
||||
|
||||
- The sensitivity test on 1/8/2021 showed a 5% increase to the underlying on 1/8/2021 ( a Friday) would've increased the total market delta by 91%.
|
||||
|
||||
- On 1/11/2021 (Monday), the price increased by 13%, and the total market delta increased by 305%.
|
||||
|
||||
- The underlying price then increased by 200% between 1/11/2021 to 1/14/2021.
|
||||
|
||||
Now! My sensitivity tests as of 6/25/2021 close showed that a 5% increase today would lead to a 60% increase in the total market delta equivalent! As of writing this, we have already been up > 5% at a high for the day, and currently at a 3% gain. I expect this will lead to a significant increase in the total market delta shares, which will put us well on our way towards another squeezy squeezy lemon peezy.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/leipjjemu1871.png?width=1280&format=png&auto=webp&s=eceb696974c5897f08ffe7b3c51e9d5d936931c3)
|
||||
|
||||
*Methodology and Assumptions*
|
||||
|
||||
I write my own algorithms to produce the results above. The following lists some key methodology and assumptions I use:
|
||||
|
||||
- I rely on daily options summaries produced by <https://www.orats.com/>
|
||||
|
||||
- Their options summaries use "near end of day" snapshots (i.e. 15 minutes before close), because they say its more reliable for producing Greeks. They say the last 15 minutes is not a reliable source for options prices to represent the rest of the market day. Therefore, you may notice
|
||||
|
||||
- I still rely on [www.historicaloptiondata.com](https://www.historicaloptiondata.com/) for my stock information, but working on converting to orats.
|
||||
|
||||
- Note that the Underlying Price in the graphs above is the Close price, not the near end of day price.
|
||||
|
||||
- For the Implied Volatility (IV), I use the following method:
|
||||
|
||||
- Orats produces a smoothed IV that I like, which I use in conjunction with the mid-price call/put IV's to produce a final IV.
|
||||
|
||||
- The orats smoothed IV cleans the quotes, and solves for a residual yield based on the put-call parity formula. This lines up the call and put implied volatilities, to account for estimating hard-to-borrow stocks, or stocks with differing dividend assumptions.
|
||||
|
||||
- Next, the IV curve is smoothed through the strike IV's using cubic splines. This is helpful for producing reasonable IV's in low volume stocks or strike prices.
|
||||
|
||||
- The smoothed IV methodology above produces the same set of IV for both calls and puts. Theoretically, the IV should be the same for both calls/put, because it should represent the estimated volatility of the underlying price for both calls and puts, which wouldn't differ.
|
||||
|
||||
- However practically, the IV never actually just represents the estimated volatility of the underlying. The IV used in the Black-Scholes (B-S) price calculation is usually always higher than the historical volatility, because options sellers attach an IV premium to the raw IV that helps make them money.
|
||||
|
||||
- Because calls can produce infinite losses to options sellers, the IV premium tends to be higher for calls than for puts. I use the following methodology to adjust the orats call/put smoothed IV:
|
||||
|
||||
- I pull the orats options database for each ticker, trade date and expiration date.
|
||||
|
||||
- Calculate the relativities of the raw mid-price call / smoothed IV, and the raw mid-price put / smoothed IV for each strike price.
|
||||
|
||||
- Fill in any missing relativities with the nearest relativity, within its own ticker/trade date/expiration date. This mostly just applies to far OTM strikes.
|
||||
|
||||
- Smooth the relativities using rloess, which is a local regression using weighted linear least squares and a 2nd degree polynomial model. This method assigns zero weight to data outside six mean absolute deviations.
|
||||
|
||||
- Apply the smoothed call/put mid-price relativities to the smoothed orats IV estimates to get the final call/put IV estimates.
|
||||
|
||||
- Using the final call/put IV estimates described above, I calculate my own Greeks. I like this source if you're interested in the formulas: [https://www.macroption.com/option-greeks-excel](https://www.macroption.com/option-greeks-excel/#gamma-in-excel)
|
||||
|
||||
- For the total market delta and total market gamma, I rely on the OI x delta and OI x gamma for each strike price.
|
||||
|
||||
- Note that the delta of a call is usually equal to (1 - put delta), so not adjustment is needed to the delta signs when calculating the total market delta.
|
||||
|
||||
- However, the call/put gammas are both positive based on the B-S calculation. If you're calculating the total gamma for a portfolio, or the total market, you have to add the call gamma and subtract the put gamma.
|
||||
|
||||
- To estimate the delta neutral and the gamma neutral, I have an algorithm that relies on the optimization toolbox in Matlab to identify an underlying price that achieve a total market delta and a total market gamma.
|
||||
|
||||
- For the sensitivity tests, I adjust the underlying price in the snapshot by +/-5%, and run the algorithms as described above, to estimate what the total market delta/gamma would be at the different underlying price.
|
||||
|
||||
- Note that the IV would change with higher/lower prices for the delta/gamma neutral and the sensitivity tests, but the impact is not significant enough to make a meaningful difference and takes significant processing time to apply the IV curves. However, it is an important simplifying assumption to be aware of.
|
||||
|
||||
- Open Interest (OI) is always lagged one day for options summaries. The OCC releases final open interest on a given day, and it represents the OI for the close of the prior day. Therefore, the OI I get in my summaries on 6/28 does not represent the OI as of close on 6/28. It represents the OI as of close on 6/25. If you see a source like Yahoo give live OI throughout the day, they are only estimates, and their algorithm methodology for estimating the OI based on various price/volume movement is a closely guarded secret.
|
||||
|
||||
- Note that I'm currently working on my own algorithm to estimate same-day OI, but I'm not done yet.
|
||||
|
||||
- However, it should be noted that using the prior day OI is a limitation of the data available to me.
|
||||
|
||||
*Disclaimer: I'm just a person that likes to play with options data and builds models to trade for a hobby. I have no experience trading professionally or offering any advice to anyone. Nothing is certain in trading. It's all probabilities and what increases/decreases your chance at a profit. This is just one indicator for one type of price movement, and there are many other indicators that can help you make investment decisions.*
|
||||
|
||||
*I'll do my best to respond to all comments, including the negative ones. I'm happy to have a productive chat about any of my logic. I've gotten a lot of good ideas from posting on this forum, so thank you! However, if I can defend myself in a dark parking lot with nothing but my high heels, I can certainly defend myself against online trolls. So be nice.*
|
@ -0,0 +1,326 @@
|
||||
Math Black Magic Vol. 1: Why It Is Mathematically Impossible for Hedgies To Unfuk Themselves
|
||||
============================================================================================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/nydus_erdos](https://www.reddit.com/user/nydus_erdos/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nw8281/math_black_magic_vol_1_why_it_is_mathematically/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
[DD 👨🔬](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22DD%20%F0%9F%91%A8%E2%80%8D%F0%9F%94%AC%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||
DISCLAIMER: My first DD. Not financial advice. All credit to the authors of cited works. I am not trying to karma farm or be dramatic by breaking this up into parts. I tried to post it all at once, but the picture limit had other plans.
|
||||
|
||||
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS:
|
||||
|
||||
Shout out to [u/sososhibby](https://www.reddit.com/u/sososhibby/). One of their comments got me started down this rabbit hole and they were nice enough to give my work a quick check before I posted. They've also posted about this topic as well: [Part 1](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nmaaaa/john_d_finnerty_excerpt_from_hoc_3_explained_pt1/), [Part 2](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nmdbzz/excerpt_from_hoc3_relevant_af_20_finnerty_fer/)
|
||||
|
||||
Also, [u/JNWolman](https://www.reddit.com/u/JNWolman/) was all over this topic months ago. IMO, the post didn't get the exposure it was due. Give it a [read](https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/comments/mgmbkf/would_the_real_exit_strategy_please_stand_up/).
|
||||
|
||||
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
|
||||
|
||||
A. What I Hope to Show
|
||||
|
||||
In this volume I hope to present work (by brains much more wrinkled than mine) that show beyond a reasonable doubt, something we all already know: that hedgies are indeed mathematically fuk, in that they have naked shorted AT LEAST the same amount of shares outstanding.
|
||||
|
||||
[u/atobitt](https://www.reddit.com/u/atobitt/)'s [H.O.C. III](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nlwqyv/house_of_cards_part_3/) mentions an [academic paper](https://www.sec.gov/comments/s7-08-08/s70808-318.pdf) titled "*Short Selling, Death Spiral Convertibles, and the Profitability of Stock Manipulation*" written March 2005 by John D. Finnerty, a finance professor.
|
||||
|
||||
In the paper, Finnerty lays out a model to examine naked short selling. In particular, he demonstrates that in order to drive a firms price very close to zero, a manipulator MUST naked short AT LEAST the same number of shares as there are shares outstanding, doubling the float.
|
||||
|
||||
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
|
||||
|
||||
B. Market Model Rundown
|
||||
|
||||
In my opinion, Finnerty's paper is a thing of logical and [mathematical beauty](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mathematical_beauty). As god tier mathematician Paul Erdős would say, "[This one's from The Book](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mathematical_beauty#Beauty_and_philosophy)". Finnerty took a very complex system and expressed it elegantly and simply. As a math ape, it literally brought a tear to my eye when I finally understood it; which took me awhile (just because I like math doesn't make my brain any less smooth). There's no confirmation bias as sweet as mathematical confirmation bias.
|
||||
|
||||
However, I am quite aware of my autistic tendencies and know most people and apes have a...*strained* relationship with math, so I read all 73 pages of the paper so you don't have to! I try to lay out his model as concisely as possible as to who are the participants, how the market behaves and why hedgies r thusly fuk.
|
||||
|
||||
MARKET PARTICIPANTS:
|
||||
|
||||
*Informed Investor*
|
||||
|
||||
- Informed investors do short sell, but do not engage in abusive or naked short selling. They locate, borrow and return shares on time.
|
||||
|
||||
- The informed investor has information advantage. They know if the true intrinsic value of the stock is high (*H)* or low *(L)*.
|
||||
|
||||
- This group only shorts stocks that legitimately have low real intrinsic value *(L)*.
|
||||
|
||||
- Assume there is only one informed investor in this model.
|
||||
|
||||
*Manipulator*
|
||||
|
||||
- The manipulator has the information advantage as well. Through research or by observing the informed investor, they know the true intrinsic value of the stock and seek to manipulate the stock below that value.
|
||||
|
||||
- A manipulator can appear as an informed investor to other participants by copying the selling behavior of the informed investor.
|
||||
|
||||
- Manipulator can be a Market Maker (MM).
|
||||
|
||||
> Market makers have lower shorting costs since they can sell on a downtick and do not have to commit that they will be able to borrow shares before they sell short. Market makers are granted these exceptions to facilitate their market-making activities. A strategy a manipulator can employ to reduce its cost of shorting is to register as a market maker for the target stock. If naked shorting, there is zero cost. (Pg. 17, footnote 33)
|
||||
|
||||
- There is only one manipulator in this model.
|
||||
|
||||
*Active Traders*
|
||||
|
||||
- Think of this group as regulation abiding MM's.
|
||||
|
||||
- They can short sell, but do not engage in abusive or naked short selling.
|
||||
|
||||
- Active traders does not have as much information as the manipulator and informed investor. They do not know the true value of the stock.
|
||||
|
||||
- They can interpret market signals and see what the informed investor does, which gives them information advantage over retail investors.
|
||||
|
||||
- They don't know if the informed investor they are watching is actually a manipulator in disguise.
|
||||
|
||||
- They mostly base their moves on what the informed investor (or the disguised manipulator) does and only act after they do.
|
||||
|
||||
- There is more than one active trader.
|
||||
|
||||
*Uninformed Investors*
|
||||
|
||||
- These are old type retail investors, not apes.
|
||||
|
||||
- Uninformed investors have the ultimate information disadvantage, they have no idea how much the stock is really worth.
|
||||
|
||||
- They always stand ready to buy more shares at lower prices than those currently prevailing, since they don't know the true intrinsic value of the stock.
|
||||
|
||||
- This willingness to buy provides consistent cash flow (liquidity) to short sellers.
|
||||
|
||||
- Uninformed investors demand for shares decreases as the amount they possess increases.
|
||||
|
||||
- Once this group knows the true price of the stock they will sell, providing shares to the shorts to cover.
|
||||
|
||||
- There are many uninformed investors.
|
||||
|
||||
*Insiders and Long Term HODL'ers*
|
||||
|
||||
- Passive group that does not take an active role in the market. They neither sell nor buy shares.
|
||||
|
||||
- They exist in the model so there are shares for the shorts to borrow and to set the initial market price.
|
||||
|
||||
- Assume they own all outstanding shares.
|
||||
|
||||
TIME BREAKDOWN:
|
||||
|
||||
The paper has a timeline/progression of how the market behaves. There are four points expressed as time *t*.
|
||||
|
||||
*Time 0*
|
||||
|
||||
- This is right before anything happens and the model is at the initial conditions.
|
||||
|
||||
- All shares are held by insiders and long term investors who do not plan on selling.
|
||||
|
||||
*Time 1*
|
||||
|
||||
- This is when the short sale can be initiated by the the informed investor or the manipulator or, depending on the situation, by both of them.
|
||||
|
||||
- Also during this time the active traders are observing the informed investor (or a manipulator posing as one) and current market signals. They do not act during this time.
|
||||
|
||||
*Time 2*
|
||||
|
||||
- This is when the active trader takes action, they do what they saw the informed investor (or the manipulator posing as one) do.
|
||||
|
||||
- The short sellers from time 1 can short additional shares if they decide to.
|
||||
|
||||
- Market equilibrium forms at this time.
|
||||
|
||||
- The informed investor or the manipulator can sustain a short position until time 3 but it is less expensive to sustain it to time 2 (unless the manipulator naked shorts and/or is a MM).
|
||||
|
||||
*Time 3*
|
||||
|
||||
- This is when the stocks true intrinsic value is revealed to all market participants to be *H* or *L*.
|
||||
|
||||
- This represents the long run, and it may be very costly for the informed investor or the manipulator to maintain a short position (unless the manipulator naked shorts and/or is a MM).
|
||||
|
||||
- If the legitimate shorts have not closed their short position already, this is were they cover.
|
||||
|
||||
- Most of the paper's focus is on what happens at this time.
|
||||
|
||||
MARKET EQUILIBRIUM
|
||||
|
||||
At time 2, the market enters equilibrium. There are two basic forms of equilibrium: pooling and separating.
|
||||
|
||||
*Pooling*
|
||||
|
||||
This type of equilibrium is when the manipulator wants to remain undetected so the other market participants mistake him as an informed investor.
|
||||
|
||||
The advantage to this is that the manipulator stands less of a chance of getting caught or squeezed. On top of this, active traders may pile on to short the stock as well when they see blood in the water. This causes the price to drop even lower, helping the manipulator.
|
||||
|
||||
The disadvantage is that the manipulator loses profit to the extra competition and sole control over the price action.
|
||||
|
||||
*Separating*
|
||||
|
||||
This is when the manipulator doesn't care if they are detected. In some cases, they want to be detected to scare off competition. The advantage is that this strategy maximizes their profit and they have full price control. The disadvantage is they have a greater chance of getting caught or squeezed.
|
||||
|
||||
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
|
||||
|
||||
E. Demand Curves & The Unravelling Problem
|
||||
|
||||
*General Demand Curve:*
|
||||
|
||||
This whole model is governed by the uninformed investors demand, since they are the buyers. Their demand is highly dependent on the supply of shares. The uninformed traders willingness to hold *Q* shares at time *t* is summarized by the demand curve (Pg. 15):
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/zhhgr111fc471.png?width=1375&format=png&auto=webp&s=cc034e8ae681bdc7365ce2ab1851e18fca94cbed)
|
||||
|
||||
General Demand Curve
|
||||
|
||||
- The function *D(Q)* represents the uninformed investors demand which is equal to the price at time *t* represented by *P(t)*.
|
||||
|
||||
- *H* and *L* are the potential true values of the stock revealed to active traders and uninformed investors at time 3.
|
||||
|
||||
- *A* is a constant representing the current market price.
|
||||
|
||||
- *B* is a constant representing the price at which uninformed investors buy, which is lower than the prevailing price.
|
||||
|
||||
- Note that at time zero, all shares are in the hands of long term investors so *P(0) = A*.
|
||||
|
||||
*The Unravelling Problem:*
|
||||
|
||||
If the manipulator is not naked short selling, then they would have to cover at time 2, or at time 3 when the true price is revealed to everyone. This presents what the paper refers to as the unravelling problem.
|
||||
|
||||
This is the issue shorts face when covering their positions. Since retail knows the real price at time 3 their demand curve shifts. Buying to cover at the real price causes the price to increase. Both factors cut into profits.
|
||||
|
||||
*Problem When True Price = H*
|
||||
|
||||
If true price is revealed to be *H* at time 3 then the demand curve shifts to:
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/3rhkhwi6fc471.png?width=1406&format=png&auto=webp&s=9d6e0631707e552c444a5d8206535f54bad1b4ca)
|
||||
|
||||
High Value Demand Curve
|
||||
|
||||
This is the worst case scenario for hedgies. Not only did they not suppress the price to *L* they now have to buy to cover. The number of shares retail holds *Q* goes to zero since hedgies have to buy them back, which will push the price to *H* cutting into their tendies.
|
||||
|
||||
*Problem When True Price = L*
|
||||
|
||||
If true price is revealed to be *L*, at time 3 then the demand curve shifts to:
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/45sv7u0afc471.png?width=1408&format=png&auto=webp&s=7bcc138e8344e98deab491f8f2b7d77275693377)
|
||||
|
||||
Low Value Demand Curve
|
||||
|
||||
Not as bad as the previous case, but even covering at *L* will push price a little bit higher and cut into the hedgies' tendies.
|
||||
|
||||
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
|
||||
|
||||
F. Naked Short Selling
|
||||
|
||||
Naked short selling removes the unravelling problem at no cost to the manipulator and it's quite literally free money:
|
||||
|
||||
> Naked short selling and manipulating the price downward provide cash returns to the manipulator, who can withdraw cash from his clearing firm account as the shorted shares are marked to market at progressively lower prices. Through naked shorting, the manipulator realizes these returns without investing any cash (provided the market price never rises above the sale price). (Pg. 34, par. 1)
|
||||
|
||||
> The clearing firm retains the cash proceeds from the short sale to secure the selling broker's delivery obligation. The clearing firm releases cash equal to the reduction in value of the shorted shares as the price of the shares declines (or demands additional cash margin if the share price rises). (Pg. 34, footnote 51)
|
||||
|
||||
Here are some familiar signs of naked short selling:
|
||||
|
||||
> The daily trading volume could be quite high if the manipulator is rapidly turning over its short position, but the daily trading and settlement activity may appear to be normal market making because the dealer's net position on the day does not change. (Pg. 44, footnote 64)
|
||||
|
||||
> Pumping the trading volume also reduces the short interest ratio (short interest divided by the average daily trading volume) to help conceal the manipulation. (Pg. 44, footnote 64)
|
||||
|
||||
Remember naked shorting creates phantom shares which increases the float.
|
||||
|
||||
*True Shares Outstanding:*
|
||||
|
||||
Based on the original demand curve we can calculate the total shares outstanding at time 0. Since this is during the initial conditions, this is the true value of shares outstanding.
|
||||
|
||||
So, since uninformed investors are always willing to buy at a lower price and, hypothetically, if the long term investors decided to sell all outstanding shares *Q* to uninformed traders then price would fall to *L*:
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/2lucrstdfc471.png?width=1302&format=png&auto=webp&s=77adeb75401431094301b216caabcb71f4db680c)
|
||||
|
||||
True Shares Outstanding
|
||||
|
||||
*Naked Short Selling in Pooling Equilibrium: Driving Price Close to Zero*
|
||||
|
||||
When True Price = *H*
|
||||
|
||||
Using the previous equations we can find the amount of shares necessary to drive the final price at time 3 close to zero:
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/qei47fuifc471.png?width=1284&format=png&auto=webp&s=65ea8f2f04eff9babd339b7c22a3a8f9c655fb7a)
|
||||
|
||||
Shares Needed to Drive Price Close To Zero
|
||||
|
||||
When True Price = *L*
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/pedh454ofc471.png?width=1279&format=png&auto=webp&s=fe342a1d0872e3baa28292cd39d15d3cef259de6)
|
||||
|
||||
Shares Needed to Drive Price Close to Zero
|
||||
|
||||
It is also worth noting,
|
||||
|
||||
> The manipulators profit depends on his ability to manipulate the firm's stock price and keep it depressed. The stronger the financial condition of the firm at time 3 (the higher *L* is), the greater the number of shares the manipulator has to sell short at time 3 to drive the price close to zero. (Pg. 45, par. 2)
|
||||
|
||||
*More Shorted Shares than Outstanding:*
|
||||
|
||||
We have the true shares outstanding, we know the amount of shares needed to short an *H* valued company to zero, and the amount of shares needed to short a *L* valued company to zero:
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/twctyrcsfc471.png?width=1274&format=png&auto=webp&s=cd8be3285e939cac464dee89025027c780c3eb0b)
|
||||
|
||||
Share Counts
|
||||
|
||||
When Value Is *H*
|
||||
|
||||
> Building a short position of *H/B* to drive *P(3)* to zero would involve naked shorting more shares than the firm has outstanding because *H/B > (A-L)/B*. (Pg. 45, par. 1)
|
||||
>
|
||||
> The manipulator can not drive the share price close to zero unless he can naked short an extraordinary number of shares. (Pg. 45, par. 1)
|
||||
|
||||
So to drive the *H* company to zero hedgies have to naked short *Q_H* shares. But remember our general equations governing the demand curve:
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/2pv8j1uxfc471.png?width=1362&format=png&auto=webp&s=b1f6323b28f83ff44706c06252eb8ef1decc802d)
|
||||
|
||||
Hedgies r fuk: High Value Edition
|
||||
|
||||
Proving that if hedgies want to short a company with a high intrinsic value to zero they must naked short more shares than are outstanding.
|
||||
|
||||
When Value is *L*
|
||||
|
||||
> Even if the manipulator's short position is *L/B*, it might still exceed the entire number of shares the firm has outstanding.
|
||||
>
|
||||
> The manipulators profit depends on his ability to manipulate the firm's stock price and keep it depressed. The stronger the financial condition of the firm at time 3 (the higher *L* is), the greater the number of shares the manipulator has to sell short at time 3 to drive the price close to zero. (Pg. 45, par. 2)
|
||||
|
||||
If the final price (*L*) at time three (*P(3)*) is equal to the price at time 2 (i.e. if *L=P(3)=P(2)*) then the manipulator will naked short the same number of shares that the firm has outstanding. This next equation should look familiar:
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/vfihc052gc471.png?width=1338&format=png&auto=webp&s=73f9ccd94ca522bfc4f57d548aa1fc0e3b51c2e5)
|
||||
|
||||
Hedgies r fuk: Low Value Edition
|
||||
|
||||
So then if *L>P(2)* then the manipulator will naked short more shares than firm has outstanding. By naked shorting the same number of shares that are outstanding, the manipulator has doubled the float. (Pg. 55, footnote 77)
|
||||
|
||||
Which makes sense: If the price is higher turns out to be higher than they expected then they have to drive price down even more. Naked shorting is effective because it dilutes the float.
|
||||
|
||||
What About Incremental Shorting?
|
||||
|
||||
Almost forgot this case, so I'll have to put it here at the end. I'm not gonna go too much into the math cause it just adds another layer of unneeded complexity.
|
||||
|
||||
Basically you just need to know this, Finnerty proves that unless the manipulator is naked shorting and/or is a MM, it is not profitable to incrementally short sell (i.e. shorting a little, then covering a little, repeat).
|
||||
|
||||
> In a market equilibrium in which the informed investor sells the profit-maximizing number of shares, I show later in the paper that incremental short sales by the manipulator will not be profitable. (Pg. 16, footnote 29)
|
||||
|
||||
This shows how huge of a win the rule changes were. Had apes not gotten them, Shitadel would have continued to abuse their MM privileges and not had to worry about margin call. Now, they can't naked short as freely and its actually costing them to maintain short positions, and its only going to get worse.
|
||||
|
||||
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
|
||||
|
||||
In the next volume, I'll explore :
|
||||
|
||||
1. The Majestic Ape Demand Curve
|
||||
|
||||
2. How apes fucked up the hedgies' algorithm
|
||||
|
||||
3. Why short attacks are getting weaker
|
||||
|
||||
4. Exponential & Log Chats
|
||||
|
||||
5. Why it is Impossible to Short Ape Curve Close to Zero
|
||||
|
||||
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
|
||||
|
||||
TL:DR -> Finance professor (not me) mathematically proves that it's impossible to short a stock to zero without naked shorting at least as many shares as there are outstanding, doubling the float in the process.
|
||||
|
||||
Hedgies r fuk.
|
||||
|
||||
BUY, HODL, VOTE
|
||||
|
||||
TA:DR -> Naked 🩳 + (🐒x🦍) + 🚀√🌕 =
|
||||
|
||||
(Hedgies r fuk) 2 + 🍗🍗🍗
|
||||
|
||||
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
|
||||
|
||||
This post brought to you on behalf of Margery Nesbitt.
|
@ -0,0 +1,208 @@
|
||||
Math Black Magic Vol 2: The Limit Does not Exist!
|
||||
=================================================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/nydus_erdos](https://www.reddit.com/user/nydus_erdos/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nwy0oz/math_black_magic_vol_2_the_limit_does_not_exist/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
[DD 👨🔬](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22DD%20%F0%9F%91%A8%E2%80%8D%F0%9F%94%AC%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||
DISCLAIMER: Second part of my first DD. Not financial advice. All credit to the authors of cited works. I am not trying to karma farm or be dramatic by breaking this up into parts. I tried to post it all at once, but the picture limit had other plans.
|
||||
|
||||
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
|
||||
|
||||
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS:
|
||||
|
||||
Shout out to [u/sososhibby](https://www.reddit.com/u/sososhibby/). One of their [comment](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nm3mtr/relevant_af/) got me started down this rabbit hole and they were nice enough to give my work a quick check before I posted. They've also posted about this topic as well: [Part 1](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nmaaaa/john_d_finnerty_excerpt_from_hoc_3_explained_pt1/), [Part 2](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nmdbzz/excerpt_from_hoc3_relevant_af_20_finnerty_fer/)
|
||||
|
||||
[u/JNWolman](https://www.reddit.com/u/JNWolman/) was all over this topic months ago. IMO, the post didn't get the exposure it was due. Give it a [read](https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/comments/mgmbkf/would_the_real_exit_strategy_please_stand_up/).
|
||||
|
||||
I'll also be using [charts](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nwwy5x/0610_update_broke_the_logfloor_by_1_5_in_linear/) from [u/JTH1](https://www.reddit.com/u/JTH1/), aka "exponential floor guy".
|
||||
|
||||
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
|
||||
|
||||
A. Topics Explored
|
||||
|
||||
In [Vol. 1](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nw8281/math_black_magic_vol_1_why_it_is_mathematically/), I laid out [Finnerty's paper](https://www.sec.gov/comments/s7-08-08/s70808-318.pdf) which mathematically proves that to drive a firms price very close to zero, a manipulator MUST naked short AT LEAST the same number of shares as there are shares outstanding, effectively doubling the float.
|
||||
|
||||
This write up is more of my examination of the implications of Finnerty's paper and how it applies to GME. This is not meant to be proof, more of this smooth brain's musings. Feedback and constructive criticism are welcome. In this volume I'll examine:
|
||||
|
||||
- What I think the hedgies' algorithm and how apes fucked up said algo.
|
||||
|
||||
- I should note, that I believe the algos covered here have been modified since, but the damage has been done.
|
||||
|
||||
- Why short attacks are getting weaker.
|
||||
|
||||
- The negative volume that pops up every so often.
|
||||
|
||||
- Why it is Impossible to Short Ape Curve Close to Zero.
|
||||
|
||||
PROTIP: This volume is a bit more math heavy than the last, but don't let that intimidate you!
|
||||
|
||||
Don't focus too much on the letters, as long as you know who is doing what at each time and what greater than (>) , less than (<) and equal (=) means you'll be good. I'll try to clarify anything that gets too intense.
|
||||
|
||||
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
|
||||
|
||||
B. Naked Short Selling: Separating Equilibrium
|
||||
|
||||
In separating equilibrium, the manipulator scares away the other participants with unconcealed, aggressive naked shorting. This maximizes profits by eliminating competition. Since the manipulator has price control it doesn't matter whether the time 3 price should be *H* or *L*.
|
||||
|
||||
The lack of competition also makes this strategy a bit more formulaic than the previous examples. The manipulator maximizes his short sale proceeds by naked shorting at time 1 (Pg. 48 par. 1, Pg. 54-55, par. 1):
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/n42c0ax4ag471.png?width=1058&format=png&auto=webp&s=042be52553c72a8b726c3cfe08aa169145c5b35e)
|
||||
|
||||
Price at Time 1
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/53iy2wm8ag471.png?width=1074&format=png&auto=webp&s=0c529a4731e2fe5e73009d21f13f45017923a87d)
|
||||
|
||||
Price at Time 2
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/hku7v10hag471.png?width=1116&format=png&auto=webp&s=cb29b1b65823c35eebd53733bdc417e1d330930c)
|
||||
|
||||
Price at Time 3
|
||||
|
||||
Note the rate of change:
|
||||
|
||||
> This has occurred with a huge volume of naked shorting and a precipitous decrease in share price that first cut the price in half and then reduced it close to zero. (Pg. 46, par. 2)
|
||||
|
||||
I found that statement slightly unclear as the price is reduced by a third then halved. At most it could be an editing mistake, but more than likely it is my smooth brain. Wrinkle brain help is appreciated.
|
||||
|
||||
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
|
||||
|
||||
C. Inverted Demand Curve
|
||||
|
||||
First, lets put the original general demand curve into slope intercept (i.e. make it easier to graph as a line):
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/99u0fkwpbg471.png?width=1079&format=png&auto=webp&s=16e5c56e020759b1add8ca735ed16bf23d230d1b)
|
||||
|
||||
Slope Intercept Demand Function
|
||||
|
||||
This is a line with a downwards slope of *-B*. Recall that in Finnerty's model, *B* is the price that retail buys, which is always lower than the prevailing price. That means that as retail acquires more and more shares, the price/demand will decrease.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/26cayz89cg471.png?width=1052&format=png&auto=webp&s=070d5441380426260557d52bcd1db5fcdd3479e6)
|
||||
|
||||
Demand Curve Comparison
|
||||
|
||||
With apes, however, it works the opposite way. Yes, apes buy at any prices, but what I think fucked up the algorithm is apes buy at higher and higher prices because ape and FOMO. In this case, demand and price increase as supply increases. Meaning that if apes got all the shares, the price would rise to *H* This changes the slope of the demand curve positive:
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/mefhrczrcg471.png?width=1280&format=png&auto=webp&s=7ba9489b6191491937bd9e755e43b562fc731947)
|
||||
|
||||
Ape Demand Function
|
||||
|
||||
What I gathered from this is most of the hedgies' problem results from a simple change in sign. I take this a bit further and apply it to the exponential and log curves later on. I figure that the inverse of these functions is what fucked up what the algorithm originally intended.
|
||||
|
||||
*Exponential & Logarithmic Graphs*
|
||||
|
||||
The following list has the floors calculated by [u/JTH1](https://redditpreview.com/u/JTH1) (aka "exponential floor guy") and the inverted version of the curve I hypothesize the hedgies originally had planned:
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/a86fowc6eg471.png?width=1291&format=png&auto=webp&s=ddee910bdcee8a375241290b7608a740ad57736d)
|
||||
|
||||
Ape & Hedgie Curves
|
||||
|
||||
Based on this inverse hypothesis, I think this is the ideal curve hedgies wanted:
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/ys4mcl3mgh471.png?width=983&format=png&auto=webp&s=95a47f214cc84052888c2cf2182d910e3df536ed)
|
||||
|
||||
Hedgie Curves
|
||||
|
||||
If you want to see the current curve, check out exponential floor guy's posts (the most recent at the time of this writing is linked at the very top of the post).
|
||||
|
||||
D. Pareto Principle & Rate of Change
|
||||
|
||||
(This section is based heavily on a comment by sososhibby. This section makes a lot more sense if you read it. Its linked at the top.)
|
||||
|
||||
*Hedgie Case*
|
||||
|
||||
I thought it was interesting that the author stressed throughout the paper, that price is reduced CLOSE to zero and not zero.
|
||||
|
||||
Remember, in separated equilibrium naked shorting drops the price by a third, then halves it before it quickly drops close to zero.
|
||||
|
||||
That sounded like asymptotic behavior (asymptote = the thing the curve has to approach for the limit to exist, remember *Mean Girls?*), so I was curious to see the progression to zero so I kept it going and halved *P(2)* again and repeated the process with my result. I assume this is happening quickly between time 2 and time 3:
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/2o17ngi8lh471.png?width=973&format=png&auto=webp&s=1f44aafd13eb3f81ccb7f1f4db0214a41d84edd0)
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/ero04mjalh471.png?width=910&format=png&auto=webp&s=9aa8b4836a4a7b880224998176146a060b2a65e3)
|
||||
|
||||
Price Progression to Close to Zero
|
||||
|
||||
I'd take it further but you get the picture. So I took the points made a scatter plot. Didn't look like much. I got curious and wanted to see if I could fit the negative exponential curve. I had to use some scaling factors, but always try to base them as a proportion of 1.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/ekvd81pmlh471.png?width=876&format=png&auto=webp&s=8c1448d0d623d47ca188bbf95a5e38596b682d2a)
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/4ell2arrlh471.png?width=834&format=png&auto=webp&s=7e10e0d89e6c936605b574fe7bfe56cc738fbbd7)
|
||||
|
||||
Hedgie Curve
|
||||
|
||||
Didn't look like much either, but the fact that it had asymptotic behavior at 0.2 or 20 percent. I figured it might be worth mentioning. Maybe somebody else can take it further.
|
||||
|
||||
*Ape Case*
|
||||
|
||||
Remember, in the normal case of naked shorting in separating equilibrium the price is dropped by a third, then halved, then taken close to zero.
|
||||
|
||||
In the ape case, the price increases. This is where the exponential/power function may come into play. I tried to find the rate of change by re-computing values using equations from earlier:
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/wpa0e8femh471.png?width=1056&format=png&auto=webp&s=ffb70662e8d057f9ecefcdca7b73ba7c913a845c)
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/c7cnltihmh471.png?width=975&format=png&auto=webp&s=fcfce22cebd58f6b95457afe6dafca3b775a1a38)
|
||||
|
||||
Ape Case
|
||||
|
||||
As with the last set of values, I wanted to examine the behavior of the ape curve to find a rate of change. It looks like the price increases by a third, then by 1.25 or 25 percent.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/pekkb7kvmh471.png?width=910&format=png&auto=webp&s=679c9df194127816f03002feb58a8159c88a012a)
|
||||
|
||||
To the Moon!
|
||||
|
||||
I did the same process of scatter and fitting curve this time with the exponential:
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/m9sioly1nh471.png?width=903&format=png&auto=webp&s=18f5889fcf4610d3c84b4de88f05dc9d1cc370de)
|
||||
|
||||
Ape Curve
|
||||
|
||||
Also, not sure if there's anything here, but the number 0.8 or 80 percent stood out to me. Need more wrinkled feedback.
|
||||
|
||||
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
|
||||
|
||||
E. Impossible to Short to Zero
|
||||
|
||||
I can use the same process as earlier to find the amount of shares needed to short the ape curve close to zero:
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/58fozggdnh471.png?width=989&format=png&auto=webp&s=69af8afc934a8c1bd51b42578ddf226dbc6acf52)
|
||||
|
||||
Shares Needed to Zero
|
||||
|
||||
These expressions violate our curve rules from earlier. All elements cannot be negative.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/1ctkekv0oh471.png?width=938&format=png&auto=webp&s=9c66d9b4480d5a16c79b715e709d08516d654862)
|
||||
|
||||
Da Rules
|
||||
|
||||
This seems to imply that if apes continue to BUY & HODL the price cannot go to zero. It is mathematically impossible.
|
||||
|
||||
*Negative Volume*
|
||||
|
||||
This is a connection I just made today, so I'll have to shoehorn it in here.
|
||||
|
||||
For the last several months, negative volume will show up in the data feeds for various apes. [This](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nwta9j/what_is_this_fuckery_can_anyone_explain_a/) is the most recent incident.
|
||||
|
||||
Now Dave Lauer did say that those were most likely end of the day rebalancing and whatnot, so I'm not suggesting anything tin foil-y.
|
||||
|
||||
My hypothesis is simply that the negative candle is the manifestation of the algo doing something based on these curves. I don't know the algo is doing and I don't know if it is nefarious or not. I def need wrinkle brain feedback here.
|
||||
|
||||
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
|
||||
|
||||
F. The Final Volume
|
||||
|
||||
The final volume will be the shortest, but the juiciest. Based on what we've discussed, there may be a way to calculate how many shorted shares there are and find out the true short interest.
|
||||
|
||||
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
|
||||
|
||||
TL:DR -> At this point, the number of shares needed to short $GME to zero does not mathematically exist.
|
||||
|
||||
TA:DR -> $GME only go up! Math say so!
|
||||
|
||||
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
|
||||
|
||||
This post brought to you on behalf of Margery Nesbitt. Help her find Kenny, he isn't taking her calls for some reason...
|
@ -0,0 +1,124 @@
|
||||
Math Black Magic Vol. 3: Trillion Short Share Seance
|
||||
====================================================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/nydus_erdos](https://www.reddit.com/user/nydus_erdos/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nya5ps/math_black_magic_vol_3_trillion_short_share_seance/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
[DD 👨🔬](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22DD%20%F0%9F%91%A8%E2%80%8D%F0%9F%94%AC%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||
DISCLAIMER: Third part of my first DD. Not financial advice. All credit to the authors of referenced works.
|
||||
|
||||
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
|
||||
|
||||
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS:
|
||||
|
||||
I'll also be using equations from [u/JTH1](https://www.reddit.com/u/JTH1/)'s (aka "exponential floor guy") works.
|
||||
|
||||
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
|
||||
|
||||
A. Quick Review
|
||||
|
||||
In [Volume 1](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nw8281/math_black_magic_vol_1_why_it_is_mathematically/), I break down an academic finance paper by John Finnerty. In it, he mathematically proves that it's impossible to short a stock to zero without naked shorting AT LEAST as many shares as there are outstanding, doubling the float in the process.
|
||||
|
||||
In [Volume 2](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nwy0oz/math_black_magic_vol_2_the_limit_does_not_exist/), I lay out how I think apes fucked up hedgies' algos initially, make conjecture on rates of change in our exponential graphs and show (through Finnerty's theories) that, at this point, the number of shares needed to short $GME to zero does not mathematically exist.
|
||||
|
||||
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
|
||||
|
||||
B. Goal of This Volume
|
||||
|
||||
So far we an equations that relate *P(t) to Q*
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/sbv13sumfu471.png?width=648&format=png&auto=webp&s=63e2d69f476bb6add74ff9a5081c3e681283356f)
|
||||
|
||||
Demand Curves
|
||||
|
||||
And equations that relate *P(t)* to *t*
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/j2vdkh7cgu471.png?width=521&format=png&auto=webp&s=f27f8d220bb288937c388e6d32e89f861d82401b)
|
||||
|
||||
Thanks to Exponential Floor Guy
|
||||
|
||||
My goal is to find an equation that can relate Q and t. That equation can possibly be used to find the real short interest.
|
||||
|
||||
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
|
||||
|
||||
C. Hedgies' Curves
|
||||
|
||||
*Case 1*
|
||||
|
||||
The hedgies' curves are the second equation in each list. First, I tried setting them equal to each other:
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/8xr7dbtuiu471.png?width=1289&format=png&auto=webp&s=7ae5032792440214363242a29e88f9d59d687833)
|
||||
|
||||
No new information here
|
||||
|
||||
But, this doesn't really help me cause of I don't know *B*, so ~~I tried a little calculus~~ ~~did a little simple calculus~~ I had a math séance. Cover your eyes and skip to the next section if math horrifies you. I will begin the ritual with the traditional chant *ahem*
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/76u4fk2aku471.png?width=1048&format=png&auto=webp&s=207ca8ca3213db1948f54ce3883639064350a637)
|
||||
|
||||
Yu Mo Gui Gwai Fai Di Zao, Yu Mo Gui Gwai Fai Di Zao, Yu Mo Gui Gwai Fai Di Zao...
|
||||
|
||||
EDIT: I made a mistake in notation, the derivative of the linear equation should be taken with respect to Q (d/dQ). This will not change the answer as P(t) = D(Q)
|
||||
|
||||
Now that we've completed the ritual and the dark gods have gifted us an equation lets plot that bad boy and find the amount of shares:
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/co6mjaatlu471.png?width=952&format=png&auto=webp&s=1ef2e94f1ab30e25e3c5e1366ee1033573f589d2)
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/kiy1tob5nu471.png?width=974&format=png&auto=webp&s=fe08f2b2eebc2644acc7fd9d3868624224bdb58b)
|
||||
|
||||
1.4 TRILLION SHARES
|
||||
|
||||
*Case 2*
|
||||
|
||||
For such a huge number, I figured I should try the calculation again with a value of 40 dollars and see what I got:
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/b5bnuvhcou471.png?width=852&format=png&auto=webp&s=12a2acbd89881b3770b72f34efb9f842816bb6e7)
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/1sqnpp1gou471.png?width=934&format=png&auto=webp&s=f4d7b7039e64470915de0b656377fc3055f4a75d)
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/9wyb54dmou471.png?width=973&format=png&auto=webp&s=8c8b8016ce118d76979b89215db3a0ebb8fafe66)
|
||||
|
||||
116 BILLION SHARES
|
||||
|
||||
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
|
||||
|
||||
D. Ape's Curves
|
||||
|
||||
I will now perform part two of the math séance, by repeating the process above for the ape curve:
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/ukba2075pu471.png?width=1007&format=png&auto=webp&s=d0f81c578fb481cab287a3fb4846cf9326f6062c)
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/fitnd4a8pu471.png?width=1036&format=png&auto=webp&s=47b616777fedf483dc2004b9108e6457b32e1cfc)
|
||||
|
||||
I Implore the Spirit of Isaac Newton, Aid Me In My Dark Deed...
|
||||
|
||||
Now this is what things get VERY interesting, check out that asymptote:
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/xdb6gd56qu471.png?width=871&format=png&auto=webp&s=6f34aa774b64c4ddbf0bc0b3161142ef0fe9ed36)
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/59673f2aqu471.png?width=1025&format=png&auto=webp&s=af9d1952760e62ad7324eb3ac0551141188dc258)
|
||||
|
||||
837 MILLION SHARES
|
||||
|
||||
I'm not sure what the asymptote implies or represents, but I feel that its significant.
|
||||
|
||||
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
|
||||
|
||||
E. Conclusion
|
||||
|
||||
Thanks for coming to my APE Talk. Constructive criticism is always welcome!
|
||||
|
||||
TL:DR -> Hedgies have naked shorted, at most, about 1.4 trillion shares and, at least, about 837 million shares.
|
||||
|
||||
TA:DR -> Hedgies have pissed off math gods. Hedgies r fuk.
|
||||
|
||||
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
|
||||
|
||||
F. Questions I Could Use Help With
|
||||
|
||||
- What does that asymptote represent? Is this when it no longer becomes possible for hedgies to dilute the float meaningfully? Is this the stalemate that occurs when the shares are being bought at higher rate?
|
||||
|
||||
- Have I calculated how many shares have been naked shorted or how many shares retail holds? The way Finnerty frames it, I believe the shares I calculate are the amount of shares naked shorted. However, the demand curve equation says it describes how many shares retail investors hold. I think it can describe both, but I'm sure what context the results of my calculations are in.
|
@ -0,0 +1,68 @@
|
||||
Math Black Magic, Final Vol: Epilogue
|
||||
=====================================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/nydus_erdos](https://www.reddit.com/user/nydus_erdos/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/odrnbv/math_black_magic_final_vol_epilogue/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
[DD 👨🔬](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22DD%20%F0%9F%91%A8%E2%80%8D%F0%9F%94%AC%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||
Not financial advice. All credit to the authors of cited works
|
||||
|
||||
THE PREVIOUS VOLUMES ARE ESSENTIAL TO UNDERSTANDING THIS POST: [Vol. 1](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nw8281/math_black_magic_vol_1_why_it_is_mathematically/), [Vol. 2](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nwy0oz/math_black_magic_vol_2_the_limit_does_not_exist/), [Vol. 3](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nya5ps/math_black_magic_vol_3_trillion_short_share_seance/)
|
||||
|
||||
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
|
||||
|
||||
1\. Quick Recap
|
||||
|
||||
In 2005, finance professor John Finnerty published a paper entitled: [Short Selling, Death Spiral Convertibles and the Profitability of Stock Manipulation](https://www.sec.gov/comments/s7-08-08/s70808-318.pdf). Using math and game theory he presents a model depicting a manipulated market. I covered the paper extensively in Vol. 1 and applied some of the concepts in Vol. 2 and 3 to try to estimate the total number of shares shorted. I stand by my methods, but they needed refinement. I reworked some things and I feel much more confident about my results here.
|
||||
|
||||
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
|
||||
|
||||
2\. Method
|
||||
|
||||
My methods are pretty much the same as last time, so this post will be relatively short and not so many graphs or derivations. There are nuances, but I'm saving most of them for the next series since they require a lot of background knowledge. If there's something that seems like I didn't explain fully, it'll be covered extensively later.
|
||||
|
||||
Using the pattern laid out earlier, I analyzed the largest drops I could find before the Sneeze, during the Sneeze, and after. I used Finnerty's formulas to calculate quantity of shares shorted and combined them with price data. Using data processing software, I ran several scenarios, based on Finnerty's model and choose the lowest reasonable answer based on past behavior and revealed data. Using all this I found cumulative SI.
|
||||
|
||||
I did not have an explicit control, however now that we have some idea of the real short interest stated in the recent Robinhood document, I used that data to calibrate the model. I also used an example referenced in the paper regarding a company called Charter Communications:
|
||||
|
||||
> "The NASD reported that Charter had short interest of 88,520,000 shares inJanuary 2005, but Charter reported having a float of only 36,600,000 shares."Pg. 45, footnote 66
|
||||
|
||||
That's about 2.4 times the float. I tried to find more info about Charter, but it seems like its hard to get any info about stocks pre-2010. Anyway, it gave me some reference point of what a highly shorted stock (at that point) looked like.
|
||||
|
||||
This model only goes from 10/30/15 to 4/12/2021. Past there I couldn't find any meaningful large drops. Since this model is still general, complexity is the enemy at this point. Future projects involve refining the model with more complexity in mind. Until then, I wouldn't feel confident in any answer I got from a smaller drop.
|
||||
|
||||
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
|
||||
|
||||
3\. Refined Results
|
||||
|
||||
As of 4/12/2021:
|
||||
|
||||
- Shitadel and Co. had cumulatively shorted approximately 3 billion shares
|
||||
|
||||
- The short interest was about 4,302 percent. That's 43 times shares outstanding.
|
||||
|
||||
- At current average daily volume (~7.6 million) that's 400 days to cover, which amounts to 1.6 trading years.
|
||||
|
||||
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
|
||||
|
||||
4\. What's Next
|
||||
|
||||
My next series will be titled *The Chronicles of Short and Shorter*. In order to write it I had to gain a deeper understanding of the concepts we've used. This led me to the most intense knowledge binge of my adult life: microeconomics. Holy fuck. What a blessed rabbit hole. This is the subject that's pretty much the basis for everything Finnerty wrote. As I am a veryyy autistic ape, it never occurred to me to try to find what the field was called. It allowed to me to take some of Finnerty's concepts further and answer some more questions. So, over the next series we'll:
|
||||
|
||||
- Go over some economic concepts
|
||||
|
||||
- Dissect Shitadel and Co.'s strategy and patterns of attack in the pre-Sneeze period, during the Sneeze and post-Sneeze period.
|
||||
|
||||
- Estimate Shitadel and Co.'s cost function
|
||||
|
||||
- Give my idea on what exponential floor guy's findings might be caused by
|
||||
|
||||
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
|
||||
|
||||
TL;DR ==> See section 3.
|
||||
|
||||
TA;DR ==> Math gods are still pissed at hedgies. Hedgies r still fuk.
|
@ -0,0 +1,156 @@
|
||||
The Daily Stonk 06-28-2021
|
||||
==========================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/rensole](https://www.reddit.com/user/rensole/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/o9gbzs/the_daily_stonk_06282021/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
[Daily News 🦍💎🙌🚀](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22Daily%20News%20%F0%9F%A6%8D%F0%9F%92%8E%F0%9F%99%8C%F0%9F%9A%80%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||
Something is wrong with reddit at the moment could not upload any pictures, and keeps giving me errors but in getting the news out asap I thought I'd get it out now and try to add images later if needed.
|
||||
|
||||
(Superstonk header)
|
||||
|
||||
Good Morning San Diago,
|
||||
|
||||
I am Rensole and this is your daily news.
|
||||
|
||||
Does anyone smell that?
|
||||
|
||||
*insert flashy intro card*
|
||||
|
||||
(stonks ↗)
|
||||
|
||||
Reverse repo's
|
||||
|
||||
<https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/o7s3ux/daily_reverse_repo_update_0625_770830b/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3>
|
||||
|
||||
It seems the reverse repo's are now at 770.830 with 74 participants.
|
||||
|
||||
I'd also advise to check out the top comment pinned to that thread as it explains quite a bit on how the repo's have been increasing and even includes this :
|
||||
|
||||
[Reverse Repo's explained](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/o27k2h/reverse_repo_operations_explaining_their_purpose/)
|
||||
|
||||
The exponential floor
|
||||
|
||||
<https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/o7va1q/0625_update_floor_guys_log_stonkdate_268_russell/>
|
||||
|
||||
Seems we are still sitting bellow the exponential floor [u/JTH1](https://www.reddit.com/u/JTH1/) came up with, again I believe this shows that standard TA is hard to pin down on this sub, but its good to keep an eye on models like this because it does show us what was previously thought of, and gives us a good starting point for the next possible model.
|
||||
|
||||
With enough data collected someone like JTH1 could start making a new accurate model.
|
||||
|
||||
The Russel 1000
|
||||
|
||||
<https://content.ftserussell.com/sites/default/files/ru1000_membershiplist_20210628.pdf>
|
||||
|
||||
It's official GME has been added to the R1K, I believe I even read somewhere that GME is only 1 single good quarter away from joining the S&P 500, but I'm not sure about that (as this is from memory) perhaps a wrinklebrain can help out and check this out to make sure we are indeed about to join that as well.
|
||||
|
||||
Also good thing to note, I believe the Q2 is about to close at the end of June🤔 wait wouldn't that be... heheh
|
||||
|
||||
Fud campaigns
|
||||
|
||||
<https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/o8pk79/what_i_see_when_i_zoom_out_shout_out_to_uayyyybro/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf>
|
||||
|
||||
[u/bah2o](https://www.reddit.com/u/bah2o/) was awesome enough that they created a timeline of all the FUD campaigns we have seen up to this date, you can see the stuff they already tried to pull, it doesn't matter if these people who were part of this fud campaigns were trolls/shills/bots
|
||||
|
||||
The important thing is just what was posted.
|
||||
|
||||
Thanks [u/bah2o](https://www.reddit.com/u/bah2o/) for giving satori some more food to process 😉
|
||||
|
||||
DTCC-011
|
||||
|
||||
<https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/o908v9/thought_sausage_my_take_on_dtcc_the_011/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf>
|
||||
|
||||
Here is a thread about the dtcc 011, join the discussion and lets see if we can all form some new wrinkles.
|
||||
|
||||
My take on it so far is that the amendment was something along the lines of "cut off the foot to save the leg" kindof action, but what the hell do I know 🤷♂️
|
||||
|
||||
<https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/o7vfvs/dtcc_update_submission_of_rule_filing/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf>
|
||||
|
||||
A pattern of memes
|
||||
|
||||
<https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/o92cmg/i_think_i_noticed_a_pattern_a_bunch_of_the_meme/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf>
|
||||
|
||||
Good writeup about why certain stocks have recently perhaps been offering shares and others have not.
|
||||
|
||||
It could be (imo) that some stock companies are doing an ATM share offering so that when legal action does indeed come they can't say "well we couldn't cover" can now be met with "nah bitch you had 10 million shares coming out in less than six months, you CHOSE not to cover".
|
||||
|
||||
(yes I still hope they go after the SHF who do illegal shit with jail time).
|
||||
|
||||
Possible Crypto Dividend.
|
||||
|
||||
<https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/o933f5/crypto_hints_being_dropped_in_gmes_prospectus/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf>
|
||||
|
||||
Seems like we missed some stuff in the filings, thank god people like [u/loggic](https://www.reddit.com/u/loggic/) found this.
|
||||
|
||||
Give his thread a look they go over how they possibly could offer crypto dividend and other things my brain is to smooth to explain for.
|
||||
|
||||
<https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/o94pad/why_didnt_we_read_the_prospectus_the_reset_button/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf>
|
||||
|
||||
Another one by [u/JustBeingPunny](https://www.reddit.com/u/JustBeingPunny/) again focussing on the prospectus and possible "non traditional
|
||||
|
||||
<https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/o91v8m/dividend_other_than_cash_taken_from_their_filing/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf>
|
||||
|
||||
GameStop's NEW 700,000 Sq Ft. Fulfillment Center in York, PA
|
||||
|
||||
<https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/o83m79/update_gamestops_new_700000_sq_ft_fulfillment/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf>
|
||||
|
||||
Insert bill and ted be excellent picture
|
||||
|
||||
EXCELLENT!
|
||||
|
||||
Be friendly, help others!
|
||||
|
||||
as always we are here from all different walks of life and all different countries.
|
||||
|
||||
This doesn't matter as we are all apes in here, and apes are friends.
|
||||
|
||||
Doesn't matter if you're a silverback a chimp or a bonobo.
|
||||
|
||||
We help each other, we care for each other.
|
||||
|
||||
Ape don't fight ape, apes help other apes
|
||||
|
||||
this helps us weed out the shills really fast, as if everyone is helpful, the ones who aren't stand out.
|
||||
|
||||
remember the fundamentals of this company are great, so for the love of god if someone starts with trying to spread FUD, remind yourself of the fundamentals.
|
||||
|
||||
There is no sense of urgency, this will come when it comes, be a week, be it a month be it six.
|
||||
|
||||
We don't care, just be nice and lets make this community as Excellent as we can!
|
||||
|
||||
Remember one of the only ways to counter the Cointelpro we have seen is by being overly nice, so treat all the other apes as if you're dating and you wanna get to first base.
|
||||
|
||||
I'm Ron Burgundy, stay classy San Diago
|
||||
|
||||
remember none of this is financial advice, I'm so retarded I'm not allowed to go to the zoo 'cause they'll put me in the cage with the rest of my ape brothers.
|
||||
|
||||
If anything happens throughout the day we will be adding it here.
|
||||
|
||||
backups:
|
||||
|
||||
<https://twitter.com/rensole>
|
||||
|
||||
<https://twitter.com/PinkCatsOnAcid>
|
||||
|
||||
<https://twitter.com/RedChessQueen99>
|
||||
|
||||
<https://twitter.com/ByeTriangle>
|
||||
|
||||
<https://twitter.com/u_sharkbaitlol>
|
||||
|
||||
<https://twitter.com/BradduckF>
|
||||
|
||||
Again sorry for no pictures but reddit is not letting me upload any, keeps telling me they failed to upload -_-
|
||||
|
||||
Edit 1:
|
||||
|
||||
<https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/o9a2ty/dont_get_scammed_by_fake_gamestop_nft_tokens/>
|
||||
|
||||
Because some people have pointed out that there may be some scammers out there, be careful with Crypto tokens, because unfortunately this is something that happens a lot in the crypto world.
|
||||
|
||||
Tomorrow we'll be getting a DD from our Kiwi ape [u/Lucent_Sable](https://www.reddit.com/u/Lucent_Sable/) on Crypto scams/tokens.
|
||||
|
||||
(seeing GME is offering a nft/crypto/token soon it's good to be informed about this so no one gets screwed)
|
@ -0,0 +1,144 @@
|
||||
The Daily Stonk 06-29-2021
|
||||
==========================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/rensole](https://www.reddit.com/user/rensole/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/oa50do/the_daily_stonk_06292021/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
[Daily News 🦍💎🙌🚀](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22Daily%20News%20%F0%9F%A6%8D%F0%9F%92%8E%F0%9F%99%8C%F0%9F%9A%80%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/g40qj0t8a6871.png?width=1600&format=png&auto=webp&s=e58711dcbffbcf5b77e22c30f4eb288c5f36b0fd)
|
||||
|
||||
Good Morning San Diago,
|
||||
|
||||
I am Rensole and this is your daily news.
|
||||
|
||||
Does anyone smell that?
|
||||
|
||||
*insert flashy intro card*
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/307847saa6871.png?width=680&format=png&auto=webp&s=6b4dbc28ddc45cf587f34f12f53aeba2837d6d5d)
|
||||
|
||||
Reverse Repo's
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/jz7dl7yja6871.png?width=696&format=png&auto=webp&s=1e43a621422e4cb161dedc121e4e4295111f9dc8)
|
||||
|
||||
Reverse repo's at 803.019 with 75 participants
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/npos90oma6871.png?width=960&format=png&auto=webp&s=87545361a47cf911c6f77c7e815f637bd0d8a218)
|
||||
|
||||
The exponential floor by [u/jth1](https://www.reddit.com/u/jth1/)
|
||||
|
||||
Seems like the Sideways trading guy and exponential floor guy are joining forces :P
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/d20n7jmgb6871.png?width=960&format=png&auto=webp&s=bb5c8162fd61d9c125685fb27882bc1d4579f38a)
|
||||
|
||||
credit to u/VeryUnscientific
|
||||
|
||||
The Russel 1000
|
||||
|
||||
We've not seen a lot of movement this past week, but we did expect it, so today is the last T+2 day of the Russel 1k, meaning we could see some movement today, but perhaps they are also having trouble to find enough shares to even buy in right now.
|
||||
|
||||
It's unknown, but I guess time will tell.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/2utwjvbsb6871.png?width=828&format=png&auto=webp&s=dd83e06afba9345fc916b85b52ffabbe0ad797f1)
|
||||
|
||||
NFT
|
||||
|
||||
Foobar posted this screenshot yesterday, so I thought I'd check it out real quick.
|
||||
|
||||
He has since posted an update a couple of hours ago that "Revest" is not in any way related to GME.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/fsrg6q26c6871.png?width=450&format=png&auto=webp&s=aad0117b26451767deb80f258a5b8a205c9a13fb)
|
||||
|
||||
So guess we'll still have to wait for some news to come out on that aspect and known what it will be.
|
||||
|
||||
Give it time guys, no rush.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/ld644qcnc6871.png?width=750&format=png&auto=webp&s=05836b2823f26e805d71ea1408ce378fc1c2dc27)
|
||||
|
||||
Reply [u/bpawsitive](https://www.reddit.com/u/bpawsitive/) got from the GME Blockchain team.
|
||||
|
||||
Love the sentance "We are humbled, and jacked as ever about the future".... let me feed my bias ok, stop judging me Karen.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/1na2cc3xc6871.png?width=960&format=png&auto=webp&s=94a037719dea5bec0e02b83f1f381c994c8a0af7)
|
||||
|
||||
Also seems that GME is not slowing down with those Fire hires 🤔
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/zfv4uii2d6871.png?width=960&format=png&auto=webp&s=7ea34624e6b8ffed7172f071c119b7c7b82ff33a)
|
||||
|
||||
Banks go Batshit with Dividends
|
||||
|
||||
Ok so this one is a little tin foil, because this is off of memory and I couldn't find a source for the following.
|
||||
|
||||
<Tinfoil> I can remember in 2008 months before the actual crash happened they were pumping up dividends higher than usual, I was not involved in stocks back then so... yeah the fact I know about it shows that it was a big deal at the time and may have been an indicator of the incoming crash</tinfoil>
|
||||
|
||||
from [u/Prof_Dankmemes](https://www.reddit.com/u/Prof_Dankmemes/)
|
||||
|
||||
Multiple banks (including JPC) are citing the Federal Reserve Stress Test as the reason for raising their dividends this quarter.
|
||||
|
||||
The lack of oversight and balance of power is fucking criminal:
|
||||
|
||||
Banks own the FED ➡️ FED pushes a "stress test" that cites outdated and underreported data ➡️ Banks then cite the "stress test" as proof that everything's fine, that 'hyperinflation is nothing to worry about'. ➡️ Banks and bank-owned MSM use the story to raise dividends and raid their own cash reserves one last time before American Bastille 🤬
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/6y2313s8e6871.png?width=960&format=png&auto=webp&s=f5951228c485962ad39bbf413b9012cd0e19d045)
|
||||
|
||||
Ya'll like barcodes?
|
||||
|
||||
<https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/o9qeq7/russell_1000_1_min_chart_wtf_is_this_i_have_never/>
|
||||
|
||||
it sorta got debunked
|
||||
|
||||
<https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/oa1kvz/about_the_russell_1000_photo_going_around/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf>
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/4almrsfie6871.png?width=4096&format=png&auto=webp&s=79a8571555f3a978d3460697cfb44426f6fe8bfd)
|
||||
|
||||
SVR by Annihil4tionGod on twitter!
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/dmw2burbe6871.png?width=554&format=png&auto=webp&s=aa312f680d616fbc84abf6566c91a46c0201d5a0)
|
||||
|
||||
EXCELLENT!
|
||||
|
||||
Be friendly, help others!
|
||||
|
||||
as always we are here from all different walks of life and all different countries.
|
||||
|
||||
This doesn't matter as we are all apes in here, and apes are friends.
|
||||
|
||||
Doesn't matter if you're a silverback a chimp or a bonobo.
|
||||
|
||||
We help each other, we care for each other.
|
||||
|
||||
Ape don't fight ape, apes help other apes
|
||||
|
||||
this helps us weed out the shills really fast, as if everyone is helpful, the ones who aren't stand out.
|
||||
|
||||
remember the fundamentals of this company are great, so for the love of god if someone starts with trying to spread FUD, remind yourself of the fundamentals.
|
||||
|
||||
There is no sense of urgency, this will come when it comes, be a week, be it a month be it six.
|
||||
|
||||
We don't care, just be nice and lets make this community as Excellent as we can!
|
||||
|
||||
Remember one of the only ways to counter the Cointelpro we have seen is by being overly nice, so treat all the other apes as if you're dating and you wanna get to first base.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/j3q4s2hee6871.png?width=400&format=png&auto=webp&s=9278008a17189e13a276e1979111aeabc40542c1)
|
||||
|
||||
remember none of this is financial advice, I'm so retarded I'm not allowed to go to the zoo 'cause they'll put me in the cage with the rest of my ape brothers.
|
||||
|
||||
If anything happens throughout the day we will be adding it here.
|
||||
|
||||
backups:
|
||||
|
||||
<https://twitter.com/rensole>
|
||||
|
||||
<https://twitter.com/PinkCatsOnAcid>
|
||||
|
||||
<https://twitter.com/RedChessQueen99>
|
||||
|
||||
<https://twitter.com/ByeTriangle>
|
||||
|
||||
<https://twitter.com/u_sharkbaitlol>
|
||||
|
||||
<https://twitter.com/BradduckF>
|
@ -0,0 +1,147 @@
|
||||
The Daily Stonk 06-30-2021
|
||||
==========================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/rensole](https://www.reddit.com/user/rensole/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/oatni2/the_daily_stonk_06302021/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
[Daily News 🦍💎🙌🚀](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22Daily%20News%20%F0%9F%A6%8D%F0%9F%92%8E%F0%9F%99%8C%F0%9F%9A%80%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/xa8bawctbd871.png?width=1600&format=png&auto=webp&s=999a1e1d9d9ffb20879525bb43b43996853f2231)
|
||||
|
||||
Good Morning San Diago,
|
||||
|
||||
I am Rensole and this is your daily news.
|
||||
|
||||
Does anyone smell that?
|
||||
|
||||
*insert flashy intro card*
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/4gz98z8vbd871.png?width=680&format=png&auto=webp&s=ad64a996da02f731719d4a933dbfd96bce9e87da)
|
||||
|
||||
Reverse Repo's
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/k7ad3ymxbd871.png?width=718&format=png&auto=webp&s=94f436a280c9edc64fb1be34a67f5c7e9c6d2088)
|
||||
|
||||
And it's back to 841 billion
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/3475y9c3cd871.png?width=960&format=png&auto=webp&s=03699984c2e9f4c9f741ec89aebf15957fba776d)
|
||||
|
||||
Logarithmic floor guy [u/JTH1](https://www.reddit.com/u/JTH1/)
|
||||
|
||||
He is switching to weekly until something happens, so that could be today tomorrow or next week, who knows.
|
||||
|
||||
What I do like however is that [u/ajquick](https://www.reddit.com/u/ajquick/) also has adapted the model to fit the current flow, as you can see the exponential floor how it would go without the first share offering, with the offering and how it may be going now. Remember that there isn't a lot of data to calculate the current situation so it may be a little off or need to adjust the calculation, but I like how the previous two do line up and lets hope this means the current one will line up.
|
||||
|
||||
You can check his thread [here](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/o7eekh/recalculating_the_exponential_floor_equation_part/)
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/74mihacxcd871.png?width=1068&format=png&auto=webp&s=ada259b2e21f024795583d77f78a950d8356c439)
|
||||
|
||||
or better yet perhaps the two of them can work together on this.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/mziyiw26dd871.png?width=960&format=png&auto=webp&s=55c716b0339a8cf143dba1b3bc15f3e84d58ed03)
|
||||
|
||||
thanks to u/hummus_is_yummus1
|
||||
|
||||
Fidelity lists GME at a "value stock" right now, and see it as a discount.\
|
||||
spicy.
|
||||
|
||||
Gurbir Grewal, Attonery General (N.J) as the new Enforcement Director for the SEC
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/do4y1t8ted871.png?width=519&format=png&auto=webp&s=7b085a80f91a4857fc278e9a36f8257774c74c30)
|
||||
|
||||
Gurbir Grewal is the new enforcement director for the SEC.
|
||||
|
||||
If you would like to know about the person [u/love_butter69](https://www.reddit.com/u/love_butter69/) was kind enough to make an entire thread on him [here](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/oaip1a/gurbir_grewal_attonery_general_nj_as_the_new/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf)
|
||||
|
||||
TBH this dude has a decent past as an enforcer, lets hope he keeps going.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/gfeeq4rydd871.png?width=960&format=png&auto=webp&s=6f3ef16ef10e27b96d7d67b280817fed0e71f19c)
|
||||
|
||||
$GME Lowest Volume Since AUGUST 2020 | Volume today = 2,436,647 million | June 29, 2021 thanks to u/ajquick
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/qypgacreed871.png?width=495&format=png&auto=webp&s=caa1bc008b66993f50153a8e105f51c5715fd455)
|
||||
|
||||
thanks to u/NHNE
|
||||
|
||||
And let's not forget, today is also an anniversary
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/2jq9fio5ed871.png?width=960&format=png&auto=webp&s=c318f89e194dafa13f9fe4ee0b7e1895479704d5)
|
||||
|
||||
Also the 005 seems to be filed/implemented today
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/fsvwymt8ed871.png?width=909&format=png&auto=webp&s=bc7a7f343cef3ab027267ce80b17d02f6a2ebf6e)
|
||||
|
||||
A full thread on it [Here](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/oa8gs9/nscc_005_dtc_005_will_be_published_on_the_federal/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf)
|
||||
|
||||
if you want to know more about the nscc or dtcc 005, please check the thread, it also links to the pdf's of them and you can check the comments for feedback.
|
||||
|
||||
Also an interesting one was Hanks FTD cycle on what is happening, and why it may have not been happening in the past week, it's interesting to read regardless\
|
||||
<https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/oailkx/why_the_ftd_cycle_didnt_happen_hankys_take/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf>
|
||||
|
||||
And as always the awesome work of our native "data Seal" Annihil4tionGod
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/b3cxb8svfd871.png?width=4096&format=png&auto=webp&s=c237144dd9eea579d5afdacf71069c50ad4b6d5e)
|
||||
|
||||
But as to wrap up I'd want to go over two last things
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/g7ddfnk6fd871.png?width=1080&format=png&auto=webp&s=7a1b02d710a2a10f7afbcffe49f5308a13ada56e)
|
||||
|
||||
Imagine being the magician, and you have 500K apes screaming out your tricks, that's whatsup.
|
||||
|
||||
Also I've seen people talk about Trading212.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/sk25rg7hfd871.png?width=456&format=png&auto=webp&s=920361edc31c3e857f73364018801b67e70216a7)
|
||||
|
||||
Again this was a showerthought of mine, but instead of fudding around, just opt out of the share lending part if you don't want to be a part of that, and keep your shares in there?\
|
||||
if you are going to hold anyway it doesn't matter if it's close only right?
|
||||
|
||||
I may not have a big wrinklebrain on this but perhaps this could help
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/3smqqge1gd871.png?width=554&format=png&auto=webp&s=518dd3b0a8469af32d62cf3784342b9e1dc099a3)
|
||||
|
||||
EXCELLENT!
|
||||
|
||||
Be friendly, help others!
|
||||
|
||||
as always we are here from all different walks of life and all different countries.
|
||||
|
||||
This doesn't matter as we are all apes in here, and apes are friends.
|
||||
|
||||
Doesn't matter if you're a silverback a chimp or a bonobo.
|
||||
|
||||
We help each other, we care for each other.
|
||||
|
||||
Ape don't fight ape, apes help other apes
|
||||
|
||||
this helps us weed out the shills really fast, as if everyone is helpful, the ones who aren't stand out.
|
||||
|
||||
remember the fundamentals of this company are great, so for the love of god if someone starts with trying to spread FUD, remind yourself of the fundamentals.
|
||||
|
||||
There is no sense of urgency, this will come when it comes, be a week, be it a month be it six.
|
||||
|
||||
We don't care, just be nice and lets make this community as Excellent as we can!
|
||||
|
||||
Remember one of the only ways to counter the Cointelpro we have seen is by being overly nice, so treat all the other apes as if you're dating and you wanna get to first base.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/l2e331q3gd871.png?width=400&format=png&auto=webp&s=35dc6753e9a52ab3152342769d88f828d65940bc)
|
||||
|
||||
remember none of this is financial advice, I'm so retarded I'm not allowed to go to the zoo 'cause they'll put me in the cage with the rest of my ape brothers.
|
||||
|
||||
If anything happens throughout the day we will be adding it here.
|
||||
|
||||
backups:
|
||||
|
||||
<https://twitter.com/rensole>
|
||||
|
||||
<https://twitter.com/PinkCatsOnAcid>
|
||||
|
||||
<https://twitter.com/RedChessQueen99>
|
||||
|
||||
<https://twitter.com/ByeTriangle>
|
||||
|
||||
<https://twitter.com/u_sharkbaitlol>
|
||||
|
||||
<https://twitter.com/BradduckF>
|
@ -0,0 +1,160 @@
|
||||
The Daily Stonk 07-01-2021
|
||||
==========================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/rensole](https://www.reddit.com/user/rensole/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/obiamf/the_daily_stonk_07012021/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
[Daily News 🦍💎🙌🚀](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22Daily%20News%20%F0%9F%A6%8D%F0%9F%92%8E%F0%9F%99%8C%F0%9F%9A%80%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/7oyu45xthk871.png?width=1600&format=png&auto=webp&s=fd641e9560b206ff57114c3e4e39310f93932998)
|
||||
|
||||
Good Morning San Diago,
|
||||
|
||||
I am Rensole and this is your daily news.
|
||||
|
||||
Does anyone smell that?
|
||||
|
||||
*insert flashy intro card*
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/udumsijvhk871.png?width=680&format=png&auto=webp&s=c2ef607778c36a265f1ba9dea338cab15c52eaac)
|
||||
|
||||
Reverse Repo's
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/s8t7mtzxhk871.png?width=960&format=png&auto=webp&s=572896f20fbf7c7fbc12c882afb18b5f6a04118f)
|
||||
|
||||
It's up to 991 billion, but it was expected to be higher yesterday due to it being quarters end.
|
||||
|
||||
Some people have speculated a few things about this quarters end, we've been seeing banks double their dividends, this could be due to banks bolstering appearance like they did in 08, it could also be because of inflation hitting them and due to the value of the dollar may be lower therefore you need a bigger dividend.
|
||||
|
||||
Lots of speculation right now on that aspect but it won't be clear until we look at it with hindsight.
|
||||
|
||||
but having that said:
|
||||
|
||||
[Credit Suise top holder Qatar investment authority cuts stake](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-06-30/credit-suisse-top-holder-qatar-investment-authority-cuts-stake?utm_campaign=socialflow-organic&utm_content=business&utm_source=twitter&cmpid=socialflow-twitter-business&utm_medium=social)
|
||||
|
||||
[JP morgan, why lights?](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/oauenv/found_out_why_the_lights_are_on_at_jp_morgan_in/)
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/7x6qgo6mmk871.png?width=640&format=png&auto=webp&s=0686dbaed2dcaf8f398f87871fc0d55b6ded35e9)
|
||||
|
||||
Volume is dryer now then a nuns habit.
|
||||
|
||||
Trading 212
|
||||
|
||||
Now since the last few days we've seen some things regarding t212 and their share lending stuff.
|
||||
|
||||
It seems they have two different type of accounts namely "ISA" and "investing"
|
||||
|
||||
With Isa your shares are not lended, and you can transfer and everything
|
||||
|
||||
With Investing it seems that your shares are going to be lended and they've always been as this is part of their terms and agreements, they're just making sure that everyone is informed and their EULA has to be reaccepted.
|
||||
|
||||
but I did find one screenshot on the sub that may be to use to some.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/fx9cb1u8kk871.png?width=640&format=png&auto=webp&s=f166418a988dbbc116a5bc5b1f7346921e34fa09)
|
||||
|
||||
I'm not sure if this is possible because I myself don't have a t212 account but if you have another broker you could perhaps initiate a transfer to them, just like when people did this with Robinghood.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/yy79oqdokk871.png?width=960&format=png&auto=webp&s=4117e4e772287c87c7fd811cd1562e07282a15dc)
|
||||
|
||||
Robinghood
|
||||
|
||||
I've reported on this yesterday and I believe a lot of others are as well, the thing that people do need to remember is that this is not because of GME, this was a case that was ongoing from 2016 onwards, as robinhood was misleading it's client's.
|
||||
|
||||
Again this was just another "robinhood did a shitty job" and not "this was because gme".
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/j3zqhbhulk871.png?width=451&format=png&auto=webp&s=6591081c99ed315b56a104b61ff4af6b1ee25e23)
|
||||
|
||||
RC Tweeted once again
|
||||
|
||||
This is a fairly common turn of phrase, meaning to either construct or deconstruct something piece by piece.
|
||||
|
||||
This could be meant as in:They are building GME back up from scratch, brick by brick
|
||||
|
||||
They are demolishing their opponents Brick by brick
|
||||
|
||||
or
|
||||
|
||||
They're building a new Crypto/nft system brick by brick
|
||||
|
||||
at this point it's unknown but sure as hell is fun to speculate over
|
||||
|
||||
I asked my Brick but he didn't make no sense
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/6wcglu8bmk871.png?width=512&format=png&auto=webp&s=d2f90b94aa27e764116db10335fc25271868e0b4)
|
||||
|
||||
Or who knows, perhaps RC want's to become a bricklayer, who knows anymore at this point 🤷♂️
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/qxirr1mgmk871.png?width=577&format=png&auto=webp&s=d83399bb9e8bda8ad03e6ac945c746602b98360d)
|
||||
|
||||
credit to u/stonk_sandwich
|
||||
|
||||
or as [u/janedoi](https://www.reddit.com/u/janedoi/) has interpreted it
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/enfyrf8hnk871.png?width=960&format=png&auto=webp&s=fa6edff91fa31b6d8d7530ecf246cd9590a3f518)
|
||||
|
||||
Also [u/chayse1984](https://www.reddit.com/u/chayse1984/) drew up some pretty lines, I'm to stupid to understand it, but... I'm just going to put on a helmet just in case. because this looks bullish to me.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/07iugyz4nk871.png?width=640&format=png&auto=webp&s=3cadbc93d3bef14b06687bd5abf4a0c2171540dd)
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/0q2g1bujnk871.png?width=554&format=png&auto=webp&s=5e47b4e9bb2a7f9dfeea7ccd01c698201a0e6af9)
|
||||
|
||||
EXCELLENT!
|
||||
|
||||
Be friendly, help others!
|
||||
|
||||
as always we are here from all different walks of life and all different countries.
|
||||
|
||||
This doesn't matter as we are all apes in here, and apes are friends.
|
||||
|
||||
Doesn't matter if you're a silverback a chimp or a bonobo.
|
||||
|
||||
We help each other, we care for each other.
|
||||
|
||||
Ape don't fight ape, apes help other apes
|
||||
|
||||
this helps us weed out the shills really fast, as if everyone is helpful, the ones who aren't stand out.
|
||||
|
||||
remember the fundamentals of this company are great, so for the love of god if someone starts with trying to spread FUD, remind yourself of the fundamentals.
|
||||
|
||||
There is no sense of urgency, this will come when it comes, be a week, be it a month be it six.
|
||||
|
||||
We don't care, just be nice and lets make this community as Excellent as we can!
|
||||
|
||||
Remember one of the only ways to counter the Cointelpro we have seen is by being overly nice, so treat all the other apes as if you're dating and you wanna get to first base.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/s1ab8rzlnk871.png?width=400&format=png&auto=webp&s=33851ee3f45eab614827102b8565dd5fd1a64344)
|
||||
|
||||
remember none of this is financial advice, I'm so retarded I'm not allowed to go to the zoo 'cause they'll put me in the cage with the rest of my ape brothers.
|
||||
|
||||
If anything happens throughout the day we will be adding it here.
|
||||
|
||||
backups:
|
||||
|
||||
<https://twitter.com/rensole>
|
||||
|
||||
<https://twitter.com/PinkCatsOnAcid>
|
||||
|
||||
<https://twitter.com/RedChessQueen99>
|
||||
|
||||
<https://twitter.com/ByeTriangle>
|
||||
|
||||
<https://twitter.com/u_sharkbaitlol>
|
||||
|
||||
<https://twitter.com/BradduckF>
|
||||
|
||||
Edit 1:GME FTD, FTD every fucking day....
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/aotcb8hx2l871.png?width=1920&format=png&auto=webp&s=185da8f393868b4ce7239096341126c99f0d2233)
|
||||
|
||||
credit to u/Bootheskies
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/73qow8673l871.png?width=4096&format=png&auto=webp&s=3d07f43830438cfb92acc829d5d7beb221f3384c)
|
||||
|
||||
Short volume ratio update by <https://twitter.com/Annihil4tionGod>
|
||||
|
||||
We passed 500K members, superstonk is half a million stronk!
|
||||
|
||||
<https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/obcrru/rsuperstonk_hits_500000_members_congratulations/>
|
@ -0,0 +1,12 @@
|
||||
06/28 UPDATE: Floor Guy's Log, Stonkdate 271. Still going sideways... 🚀🚀🚀
|
||||
============================================================================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/JTH1](https://www.reddit.com/user/JTH1/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/o9snow/0628_update_floor_guys_log_stonkdate_271_still/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
[HODL 💎🙌](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22HODL%20%F0%9F%92%8E%F0%9F%99%8C%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://i.redd.it/jp94w900g2871.png)
|
@ -0,0 +1,12 @@
|
||||
06/29 UPDATE: Floor Guy's Log, Stonkdate 272. Still going sideways... Switching modus to weekly updates until something interesting happens 🚀🚀🚀
|
||||
==================================================================================================================================================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/JTH1](https://www.reddit.com/user/JTH1/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/oageql/0629_update_floor_guys_log_stonkdate_272_still/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
[HODL 💎🙌](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22HODL%20%F0%9F%92%8E%F0%9F%99%8C%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://i.redd.it/7av911frh9871.png)
|
@ -0,0 +1,210 @@
|
||||
The Jungle Beat- Monday 06-28-2021- Important Sub Updates! 🦍🤝💪
|
||||
=================================================================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/pinkcatsonacid](https://www.reddit.com/user/pinkcatsonacid/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/o9siy5/the_jungle_beat_monday_06282021_important_sub/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
[Daily News 🦍💎🙌🚀](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22Daily%20News%20%F0%9F%A6%8D%F0%9F%92%8E%F0%9F%99%8C%F0%9F%9A%80%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||
*The Jungle Beat will be posted at 4:20 pm NYSE time every trading day!*
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/4l73al7wt1871.png?width=1426&format=png&auto=webp&s=2a810afb3f1ea3601932c323ac9e1e4684e8312e)
|
||||
|
||||
__________________________________________________________________
|
||||
|
||||
🎤🎸🥁 🦍Welcome to the Jungle🦍🥁🎸🎤
|
||||
|
||||
__________________________________________________________________
|
||||
|
||||
Today's Recap 📈
|
||||
|
||||
$GME Closing Price: $213.25
|
||||
|
||||
Open Price: $211.25
|
||||
|
||||
Daily High: $224.45
|
||||
|
||||
Daily Low: $210.20
|
||||
|
||||
Volume: 4.75 MM
|
||||
|
||||
_____________________________________________________________________
|
||||
|
||||
🖍🍎🚌GME 101🚌🍎🖍
|
||||
|
||||
*If you're new to Superstonk, start here!*
|
||||
|
||||
[Superstonk FAQ](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/wiki/index/faq#wiki_how_do_i.2C_as_a_retail_investor.2C_stand_a_chance_against_the_hedge_funds.3F) (Updates coming soon)
|
||||
|
||||
[Superstonk Wiki](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/wiki/index)
|
||||
|
||||
NEW!! We will be having a "Smooth Brain Sunday Megathread" every Sunday as a place to ask all the questions you've been wanting to get answered! Please be advised that all answers provided are from individual users and, as always, any information you receive requires doing your own due diligence!!
|
||||
|
||||
The apes of [r/Superstonk](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/) sincerely appreciate the time and effort put into getting this information out there. 🦍🤝💪
|
||||
|
||||
_______________________________________________________________________________
|
||||
|
||||
Gamestop is Officially on the Russell 1000 Index
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/pepdof9de2871.png?width=828&format=png&auto=webp&s=570720c11ae84ec6aefb86dd7ddda6c7e3efd8eb)
|
||||
|
||||
credit u/Edawg661
|
||||
|
||||
_____________________________________________________________________________
|
||||
|
||||
🚫No Brigading🚫
|
||||
|
||||
As you have probably seen by now, there have been reports to reddit admins that Superstonk users have allegedly been brigading other subs. [u/redchessqueen99](https://www.reddit.com/u/redchessqueen99/) [wrote a post here that addresses the issue](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/o80eky/no_brigading/) (THIS IS REQUIRED READING), but I want to get into this. If we're going to be accused of something, let's look at facts.
|
||||
|
||||
We know there are popular users ("influencers") in stock/finance subreddits that have been paid by companies to promote certain tickers and write/post DD. How do we know that?
|
||||
|
||||
[Because you have apes like me who blew their diamond whistle instead of taking the check.](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/ms6yvq/blowing_my_diamond_whistle_as_a_highly_visible/)
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/j5ksbue4b2871.png?width=1078&format=png&auto=webp&s=c44c58abaff4e4420823bd97827930e3025ccd50)
|
||||
|
||||
Wait, so there's PROOF that there are PAID SHILLS on THIS VERY WEBSITE? (reddit as a whole, I mean)
|
||||
|
||||
Yep.
|
||||
|
||||
[And when we investigated these "shill-shell" companies, we found some pretty disturbing stuff. Like the psyops manual used to train people who take jobs shilling, politicians, volunteers, etc...](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/mtc4xu/buying_influence_the_pump_and_dump_scheme_preying/)
|
||||
|
||||
We also know that paid shills are also sent into internet forums to bash certain stocks so as to drive down their price. We know they are sent to communities like ours bash a stock to the long positions in the community. This activity is as old as the internet chat room (a/s/l? :P).
|
||||
|
||||
So, duh, we know shills are a thing. Mods and members alike have been experiencing the harassment these paid bad actors use to attack us with their psyops and bullying communities like ours. And the bullying continues in other communities yet nothing is done after repeated reports. Seriously. If you could see some of the abusive wording in the mod reports on Superstonk posts, presumably from trolling shills, as well as the harassing DMs and posts directed at single users on other subs (myself included), you would see what a psychological battle this has become for us all. $&*@#!&%^! I JUST LIKE THE STOCK!
|
||||
|
||||
So now I present the possibility here... we know we have been dealing with shills for months in these forums. So much so, that we've had to develop special AI software, SATORI, to help combat this epic problem. *Would it be so crazy to assume that we have shills going into other communities and pretending to be members of Superstonk, spreading negative sentiment?* Who knows. But Satori is now actively finding out for us. We should get the data soon.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/qpld9231b2871.jpg?width=720&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=8ccb1572bf16e2e432cf1be0bb647f58fcda4bcd)
|
||||
|
||||
This isn't a normal community. We are disproportionately targeted because of our unique popularity in the scope of reddit, yet here we stand tall. Remaining vigilant in our DD and excellent to each other. There is no evidence presented to us yet of any posts on this subreddit condoning brigading (we have requested from multiple sources), but we will continue to investigate.
|
||||
|
||||
_______________________________________________________________________________
|
||||
|
||||
New Karma and Age Requirements, Cross-Posting and Mention Bans, and more
|
||||
|
||||
Given the level of fire we are under at this time, and to combat the issue of alleged brigading, the only alternative to completely going dark (which won't happen), is to up the automod age requirements to comment and post.
|
||||
|
||||
Satori is still approving users, regardless of age and karma, everyday. And if you have already been approved by Satori, these new rules will not affect you!!!
|
||||
|
||||
This is mainly to keep shill accounts out. And it has proven effective in the past. We prefer to stay defensive rather than offensive, and don't feel it's a moment too early to be raising these requirements to protect the sub. The issue has also brought the need to ban crossposting as well as many new words being added to automod (the ones that pertain to other subs).
|
||||
|
||||
Oh, and... In case you missed it, we also had some code forcibly added to our automod code by reddit admin:
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/6uhvmvrmc2871.png?width=571&format=png&auto=webp&s=740b2e4624c35ca8a6556e0e9d1460a529531781)
|
||||
|
||||
So no more links to other communities or call outs of other communites. 🤷♀️
|
||||
|
||||
The mod team appreciates you understanding that we are doing what we have to do to keep this community safe.
|
||||
|
||||
I know some interns that are going to be out of a job this summer......
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/ei6zsu9x52871.jpg?width=880&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=c33ca63334a58f6daba01f5d58d08cef6fcb1d59)
|
||||
|
||||
Look for more info coming soon in an upcoming update post from [u/redchessqueen99](https://www.reddit.com/u/redchessqueen99/)
|
||||
|
||||
YOU CAN STILL COMMENT !apeprove! TO BE ON THE LIST OF USERS FOR SATORI TO FAST TRACK TO APPROVAL STATUS!
|
||||
|
||||
_______________________________________________________________________________
|
||||
|
||||
No More MSM GME Talky 🤐
|
||||
|
||||
Don't even get me started on the narrative that retail-reddit in particular- is somehow capable or responsible for "influencing" a stock. This is clearly MSM trying to paint a narrative. (Brigading sound familiar? More on that below)
|
||||
|
||||
Looks like a couple Billion in liquid capital and a rockstar exec team isn't promising enough. Sorry, I didn't know you were supposed to show your hand in poker before the dealing is done? Is it normal business practice to expect business strategies be proactively made public? Were 2 positive QE reports not enough? Russell 1000 upgrade? No? Ok....
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/ds3w3rxh22871.png?width=960&format=png&auto=webp&s=ec3f06bd47de66ff596be13fa3c3f92de3edbd7c)
|
||||
|
||||
Credit u/apegoneinsane
|
||||
|
||||
"Baird receives certain payments on retail option orders routed to Citadel Securities" 👀👀👀👀👀
|
||||
|
||||
MSM is just a propaganda machine. We've always known that. Now it's becoming more blatant, the more desperate they become.
|
||||
|
||||
...Which brings me to MarketWatch. I won't link the article here because I don't want to give those MotherFUDders clicks. And I also don't want to post screenshots because that's a gray area in our NO BRIGADING rule and I'd rather play safe and set a good example here.
|
||||
|
||||
It basically said that we are the new popular stock sub, but then goes on to say that we had a "flurry of anti(*that* sub) posts" and have almost half a million members.
|
||||
|
||||
Ummm.... are we playing two truths and a lie??
|
||||
|
||||
Moderators here have not at any time allowed any kind of call outs to other subs in this manner. And we certainly are actively removing and potentially banning users that are guilty of these brigading posts. MSM is really trying to paint this sub with a brigading brush, but I, for one, am not buying it.
|
||||
|
||||
TL:DR: Don't trust the narrative that MSM is writing right now. (As if we did before, but extra caution now is warranted.)
|
||||
|
||||
_______________________________________________________________________________
|
||||
|
||||
A note from your friendly local Pink Cat ✌💖🐈🦄🚀
|
||||
|
||||
Today's JB probably seems a little feisty. That's because it's warranted. Building this sub has been a labor of love on everyone's part, not just the mods. This community is built by apes, for apes. We are just the groundskeepers for the think tank. You all make it shine with content.
|
||||
|
||||
Having said that, we are volunteers. Every one of us. We are here because we like the stock and like the sub. And we have all endured months upon months of harassment just for that simple fact alone. Yet we endure. Because the stock and the company's future is just *that fucking awesome*.
|
||||
|
||||
I/we, this whole mod team... we will not let the sub be attacked from any source if we have any say in the matter. 🦍🤝💪
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/yjxjgwhaf2871.jpg?width=1324&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=f0b896fd5b3edcc9b32a49d40ed32e9f5e7d5947)
|
||||
|
||||
Shield Wall!!!!!
|
||||
|
||||
_______________________________________________________________________________
|
||||
|
||||
We Like the Company! We Support the Company!
|
||||
|
||||
Obviously you're a shareholder because you love Gamestop and have high hopes for its future. Supporting the company you love on the retail front is a great way for a shareholder to ensure a business' success! Here are several ways you can show your public support for Gamestop;
|
||||
|
||||
- [Shop at Gamestop.com](https://www.gamestop.com/) 🛒
|
||||
|
||||
- [Become a PowerUp Rewards Member](https://www.gamestop.com/poweruprewards/) ✊
|
||||
|
||||
- [... Which gets you a subscription to Game Informer Magazine](https://www.gameinformer.com/) 🚀
|
||||
|
||||
- [Follow Gamestop on Twitter](https://twitter.com/GameStop) 🦍
|
||||
|
||||
- [Subscribe to Gamestop's YouTube Channel](https://www.youtube.com/user/gamestopvideo) 🖍
|
||||
|
||||
- [Follow Gamestop on Twitch](https://www.twitch.tv/gamestop) 🎮
|
||||
|
||||
- [Follow Gamestop on Instagram](https://www.instagram.com/gamestop/?hl=en) 🌙
|
||||
|
||||
- [Follow Gamestop on Facebook](https://www.facebook.com/GameStop) 🦧
|
||||
|
||||
- [Apple Devices- Download the Gamestop App](https://apps.apple.com/us/app/gamestop/id406033647) (Link to App Store) 🍌
|
||||
|
||||
- [Android Devices- Download the Gamestop App](https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=com.gamestop.powerup) (Link to Play Shop) 📈
|
||||
|
||||
- Brands owned by Gamestop; ThinkGeek, GameInformer, [MicroMania](https://www.micromania.fr/), and [EB Games](https://www.ebgames.ca/) 💎
|
||||
|
||||
Please remember apes, as you are interacting with Gamestop Social Media, that their objective is to reach gamers and promote their brand to their demographic. Yes it's fun when they tweet MOASS and Chickie Tendies, but let's not flood them with comments about Ken, Naked Short Selling, and Mayonnaise. Let's show them support by joining, contributing to, and expanding their robust community of gamers!
|
||||
|
||||
______________________________________________________________________________
|
||||
|
||||
🚨 Reddit down 🚨
|
||||
|
||||
With Reddit having issues during high traffic, exciting moments in this saga, we have discussed what to do if Reddit has an outage.
|
||||
|
||||
IF REDDIT GOES DOWN AT A PIVOTAL MOMENT A LARGE PORTION OF THE MOD TEAM IS ON TWITTER.
|
||||
|
||||
<https://twitter.com/ByeTriangle>
|
||||
|
||||
<https://twitter.com/PinkCatsOnAcid>
|
||||
|
||||
<https://twitter.com/RedChessQueen99>
|
||||
|
||||
<https://twitter.com/rensole>
|
||||
|
||||
<https://twitter.com/u_sharkbaitlol>
|
||||
|
||||
<https://twitter.com/BradduckF>
|
||||
|
||||
IF THERE IS SOMETHING BIG GOING ON WHILE THE OUTAGE IS HAPPENING WE MAY ALSO UTILIZE THE "EMERGENCY BROADCAST SYSTEM" TO RELAY INFO:
|
||||
|
||||
[SuperstonkLive YouTube - Emergency Broadcast System](https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCI4EET9NJPWxUuXGlG6fxPA)
|
||||
|
||||
___________________________________________________________________________________
|
||||
|
||||
*OOK OOK*
|
||||
|
||||
*"I may have been early, but I am not wrong"*
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/ipiwhqxxt1871.png?width=1600&format=png&auto=webp&s=4395b8c806799ecbaffc67d4f28c0cc3bfa74017)
|
@ -0,0 +1,196 @@
|
||||
The Jungle Beat- Tuesday 06-29-2021- The Beat Goes On 🦍🥁💎🙌🚀
|
||||
================================================================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/pinkcatsonacid](https://www.reddit.com/user/pinkcatsonacid/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/oagesp/the_jungle_beat_tuesday_06292021_the_beat_goes_on/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
[Daily News 🦍💎🙌🚀](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22Daily%20News%20%F0%9F%A6%8D%F0%9F%92%8E%F0%9F%99%8C%F0%9F%9A%80%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||
*The Jungle Beat will be posted at 4:20 pm NYSE time every trading day!*
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/c16i0nscj9871.png?width=1426&format=png&auto=webp&s=4ba996f4a4180cd4bcefd4212d94f4c9d7afc8ef)
|
||||
|
||||
__________________________________________________________________
|
||||
|
||||
🎤🎸🥁 🦍Welcome to the Jungle🦍🥁🎸🎤
|
||||
|
||||
__________________________________________________________________
|
||||
|
||||
Today's Recap 📈
|
||||
|
||||
$GME Closing Price: $210.88
|
||||
|
||||
Open Price: $213.59
|
||||
|
||||
Daily High: $215.22
|
||||
|
||||
Daily Low: $208.01
|
||||
|
||||
Volume: 2.46 MM
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/8zbm3goxg9871.jpg?width=1087&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=8d372a08ce5b862d52d46cc1d2c985d031d828b8)
|
||||
|
||||
_____________________________________________________________________
|
||||
|
||||
🖍🍎🚌GME 101🚌🍎🖍
|
||||
|
||||
*If you're new to Superstonk, start here!*
|
||||
|
||||
[Superstonk FAQ](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/wiki/index/faq#wiki_how_do_i.2C_as_a_retail_investor.2C_stand_a_chance_against_the_hedge_funds.3F) (Updates coming soon)
|
||||
|
||||
[Superstonk Wiki](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/wiki/index)
|
||||
|
||||
NEW!! We will be having a "Smooth Brain Sunday Megathread" every Sunday as a place to ask all the questions you've been wanting to get answered! Please be advised that all answers provided are from individual users and, as always, any information you receive requires doing your own due diligence!!
|
||||
|
||||
The apes of [r/Superstonk](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/) sincerely appreciate the time and effort put into getting this information out there. 🦍🤝💪
|
||||
|
||||
_______________________________________________________________________________
|
||||
|
||||
🥇Another New Record 🥇- RRP Hits $841B with 74 Participants
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/ehf9rguoh9871.png?width=718&format=png&auto=webp&s=aeec2b71eaf62016a8ec5effc9ee69734e084b7d)
|
||||
|
||||
credit u/pctracer
|
||||
|
||||
and to see a historical table, check out The Table Guy, [u/LeftHandedWave](https://www.reddit.com/u/LeftHandedWave/)'s [comment here.](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/oacrb3/daily_reverse_repo_update_0629_841246b_new_record/h3gldcq?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3)
|
||||
|
||||
Remember that trends show this rate typically doubles at quarter end, which is tomorrow. So we very well could see this number in the Trillions this week.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/h704ktgei9871.jpg?width=550&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=09aacbc362087442ba96d5f62a81e381c4c5121c)
|
||||
|
||||
________________________________________________________________________________
|
||||
|
||||
Trading 212
|
||||
|
||||
A couple of weeks ago, in an effort to try to get T212 to allow shareholder voting, some members alerted me that they were using US Treasury bonds as collateral, which I tweeted furiously @ them about (with no response, ofc). In the weeks since, this has become common knowledge in the community and it seems to have opened many questions and spurred a few interesting DDs (including making the connection that T-Bonds are feeding the RRP machine since they are considered adequate collateral for ONRRP).
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/64d42rw2g9871.png?width=640&format=png&auto=webp&s=89987969c027febb2a87507cc4c75d31f14558a3)
|
||||
|
||||
There has also been a lot of talk (and FUD) about Trading 212 and their share lending policy. While it appears to be true that you cannot opt out of the share lending program (unless you have an ISA account, in which case, you are exempt and your shares are safe), it has been used to create a LOT of FUD.
|
||||
|
||||
First of all, it is in the ToA as their client that they can lend your shares. This is part of their business model:
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/rs7od0n8c9871.png?width=960&format=png&auto=webp&s=1fff3acd948aee5c9ce9a7efae2c039d4300ca77)
|
||||
|
||||
credit u/J5T94
|
||||
|
||||
There were several subsequent posts outlining what to do if you are a T212 customer, building on the FUD.
|
||||
|
||||
We aren't financial advisors here, so we really can't tell you what to do with your stock held in T212. But it has been pointed out that in order to *transfer* your shares, you must *sell* them (so you're essentially just transferring cash). So do with that info what you will.
|
||||
|
||||
For clarification, the mod team is discussing this T212 issue, though it seems pretty simple. Here's a comment from [u/atobitt](https://www.reddit.com/u/atobitt/):
|
||||
|
||||
> Several concerning things going on here.
|
||||
>
|
||||
> Since brokers are able to provide US Treasuries (or cash) as collateral for lending out your shares, it seems really suspicious that the reverse repos are sky high right now. There could be a strong correlation between the number of shares being lent and the number of treasuries (through the RRP) used as collateral.
|
||||
>
|
||||
> Furthermore, they don't make a "moderate profit" from share lending. According to Dr. T and Wes Christian (and I believe Carl Hagberg said it too) share lending is the #1 revenue stream for many brokers.
|
||||
|
||||
Yes we have known this since January. But we have many new apes here learning the ropes and catching up on DD. TURN OFF MARGIN LENDING ON YOUR TRADE ACCOUNT.
|
||||
|
||||
Remember that urgency and panic= FUD. If there's not an ACTUAL emergency going on, but a post is urging you to "act now!!!" it's relying on you to react on your feelings instead of logic. This is a classic shill tactic to prey on people (and a classic marketing tactic overall) so be sure to always give any urgent post an hour or 2, at least, to be peer-reviewed before reacting. 9/10 these things turn out to be FUD.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/wr1r7r8bd9871.jpg?width=618&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=0505bf139c735140b267aa66e7084ebf9d88b8b9)
|
||||
|
||||
_______________________________________________________________________________
|
||||
|
||||
Routing Your Purchases through IEX
|
||||
|
||||
It's been a hot minute since we discussed this, but it's worth repeating. Certain American brokers like [TD Ameritrade](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/mq8opq/how_to_use_investors_exchange_iex_with_td/) (idk of any European ones yet) allow you to route your shares purchased through various lit exchanges such as Investors Exchange (IEX). The purpose of doing this is to keep the transaction from routing through dark pools on OTC exchanges. Keeping your purchases on lit exchanges like IEX keeps HFTs (high frequency traders) from being able to get their hands on the transaction first and manipulate the trade- as Dave Lauer pointed out in his first AMA- and gives you a more quality transaction overall.
|
||||
|
||||
This topic came up again this morning with [this post](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/oa7st6/citadel_really_doesnt_like_iex_if_you_have_the/) by [u/Key_Coffee4941](https://www.reddit.com/user/Key_Coffee4941/).
|
||||
|
||||
Citadel REEAAALLLLLYYYYY hates IEX apparently. This is a comment they left with the SEC last year.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/egz7ymf1l8871.png?width=1125&format=png&auto=webp&s=7eb7f46863976c9efd07caf183801576caeccca3)
|
||||
|
||||
credit u/Key_Coffee4941
|
||||
|
||||
So check with your broker to see if routing your purchases like this is an option!
|
||||
|
||||
_______________________________________________________________________________
|
||||
|
||||
Reporting Content
|
||||
|
||||
As we've discussed, we have had to tighten the reigns on the sub and members lately due to some allegations made of brigading coming from this sub. And we've been discussing the different possibilities here for how to handle it, and it was recommended by admin for us to report any abusive, harassing, targeted, or otherwise malicious content that is outside of their guidelines. So moderators have been actively doing so privately.
|
||||
|
||||
But I want to take a moment to really appreciate and give a shout out to the apes that take the time to report things to us mods, to reddit admin, to DM us with info, to tag us in suspicious posts... although we don't always respond to every mention directly, please know that your diligence in bringing our attention to these issues is greatly appreciated. We are just over a dozen people managing almost a half a million community (we are, however, working on expanding the mod team). And without you all hitting report, we wouldn't know where trouble is brewing to be able to keep this community safe. So to everyone of you apes helping keep this community clean with us....
|
||||
|
||||
🙌 THANK YOU 🙌
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/3wn8kx53j9871.jpg?width=777&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=b351b52b62b67052426e4aa5f24d6ed5ddc3974a)
|
||||
|
||||
In addition to that point, we have also been actively removing bullying and harassing posts that target certain people. Yes we like to meme this situation with funny wanted posters and the like. But it's in poor taste and can easily be seen as harassment. So please keep in mind that we are here to discuss the Gamestop stock and company's future, and topics that relate to that. Anything else will be removed, per the rules. Just doing what we've got to do to keep the jungle safe. Ape no fight ape, and ape no fling shit at others 💖
|
||||
|
||||
_______________________________________________________________________________
|
||||
|
||||
Impressive
|
||||
|
||||
Here's the traffic log with the impression stats for Superstonk
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/l32hvd6hk9871.png?width=735&format=png&auto=webp&s=b23d7be95a5fcd38c93eee692761a3f082b308b4)
|
||||
|
||||
_______________________________________________________________________________
|
||||
|
||||
We Like the Company! We Support the Company!
|
||||
|
||||
Obviously you're a shareholder because you love Gamestop and have high hopes for its future. Supporting the company you love on the retail front is a great way for a shareholder to ensure a business' success! Here are several ways you can show your public support for Gamestop;
|
||||
|
||||
- [Shop at Gamestop.com](https://www.gamestop.com/)
|
||||
|
||||
- [Become a PowerUp Rewards Member](https://www.gamestop.com/poweruprewards/)
|
||||
|
||||
- [... Which gets you a subscription to Game Informer Magazine](https://www.gameinformer.com/)
|
||||
|
||||
- [Follow Gamestop on Twitter](https://twitter.com/GameStop)
|
||||
|
||||
- [Subscribe to Gamestop's YouTube Channel](https://www.youtube.com/user/gamestopvideo)
|
||||
|
||||
- [Follow Gamestop on Twitch](https://www.twitch.tv/gamestop)
|
||||
|
||||
- [Follow Gamestop on Instagram](https://www.instagram.com/gamestop/?hl=en)
|
||||
|
||||
- [Follow Gamestop on Facebook](https://www.facebook.com/GameStop)
|
||||
|
||||
- [Apple Devices- Download the Gamestop App](https://apps.apple.com/us/app/gamestop/id406033647) (Link to App Store)
|
||||
|
||||
- [Android Devices- Download the Gamestop App](https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=com.gamestop.powerup) (Link to Play Shop)
|
||||
|
||||
- Brands owned by Gamestop; ThinkGeek, GameInformer, [MicroMania](https://www.micromania.fr/), and [EB Games](https://www.ebgames.ca/)
|
||||
|
||||
Please remember apes, as you are interacting with Gamestop Social Media, that their objective is to reach gamers and promote their brand to their demographic. Yes it's fun when they tweet MOASS and Chickie Tendies, but let's not flood them with comments about Ken, Naked Short Selling, and Mayonnaise. Let's show them support by joining, contributing to, and expanding their robust community of gamers!
|
||||
|
||||
______________________________________________________________________________
|
||||
|
||||
🚨 Reddit down 🚨
|
||||
|
||||
With Reddit having issues during high traffic, exciting moments in this saga, we have discussed what to do if Reddit has an outage.
|
||||
|
||||
IF REDDIT GOES DOWN AT A PIVOTAL MOMENT A LARGE PORTION OF THE MOD TEAM IS ON TWITTER.
|
||||
|
||||
<https://twitter.com/ByeTriangle>
|
||||
|
||||
<https://twitter.com/PinkCatsOnAcid>
|
||||
|
||||
<https://twitter.com/RedChessQueen99>
|
||||
|
||||
<https://twitter.com/rensole>
|
||||
|
||||
<https://twitter.com/u_sharkbaitlol>
|
||||
|
||||
<https://twitter.com/BradduckF>
|
||||
|
||||
IF THERE IS SOMETHING BIG GOING ON WHILE THE OUTAGE IS HAPPENING WE MAY ALSO UTILIZE THE "EMERGENCY BROADCAST SYSTEM" TO RELAY INFO:
|
||||
|
||||
[SuperstonkLive YouTube - Emergency Broadcast System](https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCI4EET9NJPWxUuXGlG6fxPA)
|
||||
|
||||
___________________________________________________________________________________
|
||||
|
||||
*OOK OOK*
|
||||
|
||||
*"I may have been early, but I am not wrong"*
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/golxw8skj9871.png?width=1600&format=png&auto=webp&s=18bd28727029e4cf790a3ef6c5d0168d4bb980f3)
|
@ -0,0 +1,196 @@
|
||||
The Jungle Beat- Wednesday 06-30-2021- CELEBRATING 500K SUPERSTONK MEMBERS WITH FLAIRS!! 🥳🎊🚀🚀🚀
|
||||
===================================================================================================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/pinkcatsonacid](https://www.reddit.com/user/pinkcatsonacid/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/ob5ndf/the_jungle_beat_wednesday_06302021_celebrating/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
[Daily News 🦍💎🙌🚀](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22Daily%20News%20%F0%9F%A6%8D%F0%9F%92%8E%F0%9F%99%8C%F0%9F%9A%80%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/3pqfi3r7uf871.png?width=1426&format=png&auto=webp&s=001e474dc15e288e20cdde7e28cba91d95ee66de)
|
||||
|
||||
__________________________________________________________________
|
||||
|
||||
🎤🎸🥁 🦍Welcome to the Jungle🦍🥁🎸🎤
|
||||
|
||||
__________________________________________________________________
|
||||
|
||||
Today's Recap 📈
|
||||
|
||||
$GME Closing Price: $214.14
|
||||
|
||||
Open Price: $209.69 ( ͡° ͜ʖ ͡°)
|
||||
|
||||
Daily High: $215.28
|
||||
|
||||
Daily Low: $206.94
|
||||
|
||||
Volume: 2.51 MM
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/6pnhxyt8og871.jpg?width=1126&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=c262ee05aee09e4091e2796f3a65fdb3a982545c)
|
||||
|
||||
_____________________________________________________________________
|
||||
|
||||
🖍🍎🚌GME 101🚌🍎🖍
|
||||
|
||||
*If you're new to Superstonk, start here!*
|
||||
|
||||
[Superstonk FAQ](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/wiki/index/faq#wiki_how_do_i.2C_as_a_retail_investor.2C_stand_a_chance_against_the_hedge_funds.3F) (Updates coming soon)
|
||||
|
||||
[Superstonk Wiki](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/wiki/index)
|
||||
|
||||
NEW!! We will be having a "Smooth Brain Sunday Megathread" every Sunday as a place to ask all the questions you've been wanting to get answered! Please be advised that all answers provided are from individual users and, as always, any information you receive requires doing your own due diligence!!
|
||||
|
||||
The apes of [r/Superstonk](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/) sincerely appreciate the time and effort put into getting this information out there. 🦍🤝💪
|
||||
|
||||
_______________________________________________________________________________
|
||||
|
||||
500K Members on Superstonk
|
||||
|
||||
*Putting a placeholder here for the screenshot!*
|
||||
|
||||
It appears as though we will be hitting the half a million member mark before tomorrow's edition of the Jungle Beat. HALF A MILLION APES!!🥳🥳🥳
|
||||
|
||||
You wanna know a cool fact? Woodstock reportedly had about 500k people in attendance. WE ARE WOODSTONK BABY ✌💖🌼🚀
|
||||
|
||||
Here's some pics of Woodstock '69 to put it in perspective:
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/zn0hf3h9kg871.png?width=600&format=png&auto=webp&s=fc6cf332d57a3167ec25a66ad3e6ef4bbdacd726)
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/49scsl1skg871.png?width=660&format=png&auto=webp&s=91a5f1ac32766680f78ed548fabf9c77cd0c33dc)
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/tw7o24lbkg871.png?width=696&format=png&auto=webp&s=95bc8af66c844b61566f48edbff5efe3637cbce0)
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/n5tpd23dkg871.png?width=594&format=png&auto=webp&s=8bd263e4a0e604fcbbfa385b61f5d96b66bc7118)
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/ys6paakkkg871.png?width=1200&format=png&auto=webp&s=b2b214124942fe7bc59f8530884eb31c44d78166)
|
||||
|
||||
dat us
|
||||
|
||||
Some of us have been here since before the first migration, and we have made many many friends along the way. As we sit here and enjoy this beautiful, enriching community that we have all collectively built, I just want to express a sincere thank you to everyone for being a member of Superstonk!! None of this would be possible without a whole lotta' dedicated apes. It's a deep fucking honor to be here with you all. 💎🙌
|
||||
|
||||
🦍🤝💪
|
||||
|
||||
________________________________________________________________________________
|
||||
|
||||
🥇Broken Records 💿
|
||||
|
||||
RRPs back at it again
|
||||
|
||||
$991 Billion and 90 participants 👀
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/lvcz75kc7g871.png?width=960&format=png&auto=webp&s=63c432c82465e5235d9c0d566ca4b0167bec1b9d)
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/stbeqw227g871.png?width=960&format=png&auto=webp&s=d355547b553667acf8bfcbeb55452433d2327e03)
|
||||
|
||||
Sooooo close to unlocking the Trillion Achievement! credit u/canispeaktoyourmangr
|
||||
|
||||
_______________________________________________________________________________
|
||||
|
||||
Community Spotlight
|
||||
|
||||
Hot'n'fresh DD by [u/Jsmar18](https://www.reddit.com/u/Jsmar18/)
|
||||
|
||||
[Demystify the Feds ON-RRP Operations, Why do we care so much about them? | Finally figured out what Michael Burrry IS trying to tell the world by u /Jsmar18 (link)](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/oaw2ls/demystify_the_feds_onrrp_operations_why_do_we/)
|
||||
|
||||
As we watch the RRP levels rise to record highs, we are paying more and more attention to it because... well, why are they rising to record highs?! But this Hot'n'fresh DD that just dropped today from fellow mod Jsmar presents an enticing argument for why ONRRP rates may not actually be as big as we think, and that Dr. Burry's tweets seem to possibly confirm this theory.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/b505xs1shf871.png?width=293&format=png&auto=webp&s=a031b871eaaa5aab9bde7597fa587c8991254e71)
|
||||
|
||||
Super dope read and we appreciate the work of wrinkly apes like J to educate us and provide such well-researched counter-thought to quickly established theories in the community!
|
||||
|
||||
_________________________________________
|
||||
|
||||
$GME aesthetic chart art
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/6xtfgyjl0g871.png?width=640&format=png&auto=webp&s=2fa73247535c33927aaf2116518897058987d73a)
|
||||
|
||||
credit u/LLMOONJ
|
||||
|
||||
______________________________________________________________________________
|
||||
|
||||
FINRA issues largest fine EVER to Robinhood- $70MM
|
||||
|
||||
*Newsflash: Robinhood's Cost of Business is just Cost of Business. In other news, bananas are yellow.*
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/9j2wlfrr7g871.png?width=828&format=png&auto=webp&s=6fb6b784d292bac3f09cb72f416a8bd25b7058f3)
|
||||
|
||||
Did you see those fucking RRP numbers up there? We are dancing with the Trillions here, and we're supposed to believe that $70 Million is a sufficient fine for someone who made billions off of PFOF?? Nah. FINRA can pretend that their Self Regulating ~~Organized crime~~ Organization (SRO) is issuing mind-boggling numbers here, but we have seen behind the veil and that's hardly a slap on the wrist- especially when a much lesser crime of stealing a loaf of bread would put the common ape in jail.
|
||||
|
||||
It has also been noted that this is not related to the taking away of the buy button in January. Robinhood just proved that this fuckery is part of their business model.
|
||||
|
||||
_______________________________________________________________________________
|
||||
|
||||
We Like the Company! We Support the Company!
|
||||
|
||||
Obviously you're a shareholder because you love Gamestop and have high hopes for its future. Supporting the company you love on the retail front is a great way for a shareholder to ensure a business' success! Here are several ways you can show your public support for Gamestop;
|
||||
|
||||
- [Shop at Gamestop.com](https://www.gamestop.com/)
|
||||
|
||||
- [Become a PowerUp Rewards Member](https://www.gamestop.com/poweruprewards/)
|
||||
|
||||
- [... Which gets you a subscription to Game Informer Magazine](https://www.gameinformer.com/)
|
||||
|
||||
- [Follow Gamestop on Twitter](https://twitter.com/GameStop)
|
||||
|
||||
- [Subscribe to Gamestop's YouTube Channel](https://www.youtube.com/user/gamestopvideo)
|
||||
|
||||
- [Follow Gamestop on Twitch](https://www.twitch.tv/gamestop)
|
||||
|
||||
- [Follow Gamestop on Instagra](https://www.instagram.com/gamestop/?hl=en)m
|
||||
|
||||
- [Follow Gamestop on Facebook](https://www.facebook.com/GameStop)
|
||||
|
||||
- [Apple Devices- Download the Gamestop App](https://apps.apple.com/us/app/gamestop/id406033647) (Link to App Store)
|
||||
|
||||
- [Android Devices- Download the Gamestop App](https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=com.gamestop.powerup) (Link to Play Shop)
|
||||
|
||||
- Brands owned by Gamestop; ThinkGeek, GameInformer, [MicroMania](https://www.micromania.fr/), and [EB Games](https://www.ebgames.ca/)
|
||||
|
||||
Please remember apes, as you are interacting with Gamestop Social Media, that their objective is to reach gamers and promote their brand to their demographic. Yes it's fun when they tweet MOASS and Chickie Tendies, but let's not flood them with comments about Ken, Naked Short Selling, and Mayonnaise. Let's show them support by joining, contributing to, and expanding their robust community of gamers!
|
||||
|
||||
______________________________________________________________________________
|
||||
|
||||
🚨 Reddit down 🚨
|
||||
|
||||
With Reddit having issues during high traffic, exciting moments in this saga, we have discussed what to do if Reddit has an outage.
|
||||
|
||||
IF REDDIT GOES DOWN AT A PIVOTAL MOMENT A LARGE PORTION OF THE MOD TEAM IS ON TWITTER.
|
||||
|
||||
<https://twitter.com/ByeTriangle>
|
||||
|
||||
<https://twitter.com/PinkCatsOnAcid>
|
||||
|
||||
<https://twitter.com/RedChessQueen99>
|
||||
|
||||
<https://twitter.com/rensole>
|
||||
|
||||
<https://twitter.com/u_sharkbaitlol>
|
||||
|
||||
<https://twitter.com/BradduckF>
|
||||
|
||||
IF THERE IS SOMETHING BIG GOING ON WHILE THE OUTAGE IS HAPPENING WE MAY ALSO UTILIZE THE "EMERGENCY BROADCAST SYSTEM" TO RELAY INFO:
|
||||
|
||||
[SuperstonkLive YouTube - Emergency Broadcast System](https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCI4EET9NJPWxUuXGlG6fxPA)
|
||||
|
||||
___________________________________________________________________________________
|
||||
|
||||
*OOK OOK*
|
||||
|
||||
*"I may have been early, but I am not wrong"*
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/opkud4o46g871.png?width=1600&format=png&auto=webp&s=ec5ccf859a82f59ee79cb9ea6e790cf112279d31)
|
||||
|
||||
1.3k Comments
|
||||
|
||||
Award
|
||||
|
||||
Share
|
||||
|
||||
Save
|
||||
|
||||
Hide
|
||||
|
||||
Report
|
@ -0,0 +1,290 @@
|
||||
The Jungle Beat- Thursday 07-01-2021- Important Sub Wellness, Knights of New, & Security Updates! 🩺🦍💪
|
||||
========================================================================================================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/pinkcatsonacid](https://www.reddit.com/user/pinkcatsonacid/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/obu8p4/the_jungle_beat_thursday_07012021_important_sub/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
[Daily News 🦍💎🙌🚀](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22Daily%20News%20%F0%9F%A6%8D%F0%9F%92%8E%F0%9F%99%8C%F0%9F%9A%80%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/61hdn2cjnm871.png?width=1426&format=png&auto=webp&s=efe295194054a2e93d72b6f17cb25cbe548c3308)
|
||||
|
||||
__________________________________________________________________
|
||||
|
||||
🎤🎸🥁 🦍Welcome to the Jungle🦍🥁🎸🎤
|
||||
|
||||
__________________________________________________________________
|
||||
|
||||
Today's Recap 📈
|
||||
|
||||
$GME Closing Price: $204.36
|
||||
|
||||
Open Price: $213.40
|
||||
|
||||
Daily High: $216.83
|
||||
|
||||
Daily Low: $202.00
|
||||
|
||||
Volume: 2.72 MM
|
||||
|
||||
_____________________________________________________________________
|
||||
|
||||
🖍🍎🚌GME 101🚌🍎🖍
|
||||
|
||||
*If you're new to Superstonk, start here!*
|
||||
|
||||
[Superstonk FAQ](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/wiki/index/faq#wiki_how_do_i.2C_as_a_retail_investor.2C_stand_a_chance_against_the_hedge_funds.3F) (Updates coming soon)
|
||||
|
||||
[Superstonk Wiki](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/wiki/index)
|
||||
|
||||
NEW!! We will be having a "Smooth Brain Sunday Megathread" every Sunday as a place to ask all the questions you've been wanting to get answered! Please be advised that all answers provided are from individual users and, as always, any information you receive requires doing your own due diligence!!
|
||||
|
||||
The apes of [r/Superstonk](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/) sincerely appreciate the time and effort put into getting this information out there. 🦍🤝💪
|
||||
|
||||
_______________________________________________________________________________
|
||||
|
||||
PSA- Stop and think before you click the link
|
||||
|
||||
Important announcement regarding 3rd party links like Google Drive
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/onjaw1iuhm871.jpg?width=799&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=ee38ad0883932b9135d63846c759af174e8e8791)
|
||||
|
||||
Brent Rambo doesn't click random links. Be like Brent Rambo.
|
||||
|
||||
Being a savvy ape means staying 10 steps ahead of anyone that may be coming at you to undermine you. We mods try to stay ahead of the curve on upcoming FUD trends and while it is exhausting to keep up with the ever-changing tactics, we have managed to curb the FUD as it rushes in. But there's a new phishy tactic in town that has me on high alert.
|
||||
|
||||
Google drive links that are always purported to have enticing, must-read DD, which is usually deleted or somehow missing.
|
||||
|
||||
This has been a FUD tactic used and abused by known shills since January.
|
||||
|
||||
These links that lead to websites like google docs or sheets, DOXXES YOU TO THE AUTHOR WHEN YOU CLICK IT. As soon as you click that link, you are viewing the document under whatever google account you have logged in to that device. And the author can see every google email and account name that has interacted with that document. This is a common phishing tactic used by those wishing to collect email addresses for the purpose of spamming.
|
||||
|
||||
*Note that opening these links in incognito mode will prevent the phishing from being successful, as you will not be signed in.*
|
||||
|
||||
Here are a couple of instances (though slightly different situations) where google docs were used in a phishing attempt:
|
||||
|
||||
- [Google Docs spam attack: If you've already clicked the link, here's what to do](https://tech.hindustantimes.com/tech/news/google-docs-email-spam-attack-here-is-what-to-do-if-you-already-clicked-the-link-story-osCiPfMi7GxcvkbwQ7BFoK.html)
|
||||
|
||||
- [A new scam uses Google Drive to send out a deluge of dodgy links](https://www.wired.co.uk/article/google-drive-spam-comments-phishing)
|
||||
|
||||
I realize these situations aren't exactly similar in their avenue of gaining your attention. *But that's the beauty of Superstonk.* We have half a million apes with an insatiable craving for earth-shattering DD. Can't miss DD. If you say you've got a link to something like that, you're going to get a lot of mindless clicks, especially from newer apes trying to catch up on the DD.
|
||||
|
||||
I've been sus of this practice of linking google drive for a while, but realize the importance of having backups in case things on this website go south, as we've been seeing more of lately. But the mod team has decided to enforce a temporary ban on google drive links and will be removing them anywhere we see them. More permanent rules regarding third party links are being discussed as we speak to protect the sub, and a "trusted list" will be created for reference. Once a rule is in place, certain 3rd party site links will be permanently banned from Superstonk, including google drive and linked in.
|
||||
|
||||
Please just stay extra vigilant as we become a bigger and more popular mainstream target. Most of us here hold very valuable stock in our trade accounts, that to some people, are arguably worth more than the ticker reflects. We know it. They know it. They know, we know it. Never EVER let down your guard.
|
||||
|
||||
Apes are stronger and smarter together. 🦍🤝💪
|
||||
|
||||
_______________________________________________________________________________
|
||||
|
||||
It's official- Half a million members reached 06-30-2021!!!
|
||||
|
||||
Congratulations, Superstonk!!!
|
||||
|
||||
to celebrate, you have been delisted from the subreddit directory lmayo
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/nh6xrsg0xm871.jpg?width=1080&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=3363bf54890a18a5e3f46bfda025dbd4f756c52e)
|
||||
|
||||
started from the bottom now we here
|
||||
|
||||
_______________________________________________________________________________
|
||||
|
||||
Sub Wellness Update 🩺
|
||||
|
||||
[Link to the post here](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/obei9c/superstonk_wellness_update_and_new_mods/) from [u/redchessqueen99](https://www.reddit.com/u/redchessqueen99/)
|
||||
|
||||
Superstonk Growth Plan
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/eigjldofom871.png?width=1200&format=png&auto=webp&s=c4b8191477125039ea5c6718c8eceb412c38ee02)
|
||||
|
||||
From baby apes to grown baby apes.
|
||||
|
||||
With this natural and impressive growth, the mod team has been putting together plans for expansion. We have modified our structure of mod hierarchy, and organized our team in a way that truly is comforting to all of us. We no longer fret over the psychological issues of compromised mods or bad actors, and honestly I must say this is the best team I have ever been a part of. I see nothing but great things in our future.
|
||||
|
||||
That said, we have become mildly fatigued over the sheer growth and intensity of the past few months. Mods are people too, and have IRL situations that need tending to, and ultimately we are not superhuman. Additionally, we have lost a few mods, most recently [u/HeyItsPixeL](https://www.reddit.com/u/HeyItsPixeL/), due to IRL workload constraints, and, while are sad to see him go, we were so happy to have him along for the ride to this point.
|
||||
|
||||
Moving forward, we will be making regular additions to the mod team. Previously, we had waited for growing pains before beginning the process of adding new mods, usually 2-3 at a time, but now we are making a dedicated effort to scaling indefinitely so as to properly moderate the sub and ensure that [r/Superstonk](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/) has a long future on reddit.
|
||||
|
||||
We are planning to add 2-3 mods on a regular basis to ensure proper management of the mod queue and mod mail, among other more advanced responsibilities. This method, coupled with a mod training guide that we have put together, and a structured discord for moderator communication and organization, should allow us to quickly onboard, train, and implement new mods.
|
||||
|
||||
Welcome our new Moderators!
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/vua7qkfjom871.png?width=726&format=png&auto=webp&s=f554e58ecf54ccf327cc2d4253425ac8c53abd9c)
|
||||
|
||||
Get into the mod team, you damn dirty apes!
|
||||
|
||||
This week, we are adding FOUR new moderators. They are already in the mod chat and meshing well with the whole team. Please give them all a warm welcome:
|
||||
|
||||
- [u/broccaaa](https://www.reddit.com/u/broccaaa/) - This user is very helpful, and has a large knowledge base surrounding FTD cycles and more. He also has many connections in the DD circles that will be very helpful to the mod team. We are confident he will make a solid addition to the sub as a whole.
|
||||
|
||||
- [u/stonk_sandwich](https://www.reddit.com/u/stonk_sandwich/) - From sending headbands to apes to attending the shareholder meeting in person, this user is an active, kind, and smart ape who will be focused on community engagement. We are already very impressed with their involvement in the team, and have high hopes.
|
||||
|
||||
- u/ [badtothebone](https://www.reddit.com/user/_badtothebone_) - This user is someone that [u/rensole](https://www.reddit.com/u/rensole/) and myself ( [u/redchessqueen99](https://www.reddit.com/u/redchessqueen99/) ) have moderated alongside before, and we have decided to welcome him into the fold of the [r/Superstonk](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/) mod team. He has proven to be a reliable mod who prioritizes team work and loves this community, so we have very positive experiences and are excited to work with him again.
|
||||
|
||||
- [u/hey_madie](https://www.reddit.com/u/hey_madie/) - This user has been fostering an impressive and positive image across the community, and has established herself as intelligent, resourceful, and reliable to not only the mod team, but respected circles of DD authors and technical analysts. We have no doubt that she will elevate the mod team to a whole new level, and are very excited to have her on the team. Also, she is basically the Queen of Quant.
|
||||
|
||||
I am superstonkin' excited to have these four aboard, and I am very excited to see how they mesh with the team and progress the sub as a whole. Welcome, new mods!
|
||||
|
||||
Superstonk's Future
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/jq9lqhrlom871.png?width=1280&format=png&auto=webp&s=5b38074387ff14b1ac30937a0c813f80e809f736)
|
||||
|
||||
APE 2.0
|
||||
|
||||
I know there has been a lot of concern around the recent communication we received from reddit admins regarding [issues of brigading](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/o80eky/no_brigading/), where apes are pushing GameStop and Superstonk onto other subs, as well as referencing them in negative light on this sub overall. Therefore, we have made several changes to the automod code, as well as a required change added by reddit admins, to prevent the discussion of certain terms and references to other subreddits. Please honor these constraints, and help us keep the sub going strong.
|
||||
|
||||
We realize this is frustrating, as many of us are used to collaborating with other GME-specific subs, and please know that I am working to clarify the specifics of this situation, and am working to try and recover crossposting and sharing of content with GME-specific subreddits. I am also on good terms with their moderators, and hope to reach out shortly, once I receive clarification from reddit admins, to foster a healthy relationship between our subs.
|
||||
|
||||
Also, a lot of people are talking about backup plans, and another migration, so let me say this. I am not going anywhere. I am extremely proud of what we've created here at [r/Superstonk](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/), and I am going to fight to the end to keep it healthy and strong, and active. We are going to do everything in our power to comply with reddit admins and reddit policy, so that this sub can live a long and healthy life.
|
||||
|
||||
So, please do your best to behave, to be civil, to be polite, and to be conscientious of these issues and policies, so that we can prevent further mishaps. I know there is a lot of animosity due to past grievances, but I am hoping we can start a new chapter with our 500k milestone, and take some proud steps into the future.
|
||||
|
||||
Re: Knights of New
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/o3c7p2eoom871.png?width=1000&format=png&auto=webp&s=656548ffb8981604fdfbbeb76792d63c04df0640)
|
||||
|
||||
Is this ape? Or shill in ape suit?
|
||||
|
||||
This group has popped up over the past month or so, and aims to "police" the New sorted [r/Superstonk](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/) feed, and intentionally downvotes posts that violate our sub's rules and general content quality, and upvotes those that they deem to be quality content. While at first, this idea seemed fun and a good idea, as apes voting for good content and downvoting bad content has always been a staple of the success of the sub, we now are seeing some aspects that are problematic.
|
||||
|
||||
This could be construed as organized vote manipulation, as well as generally being unregulated and outside of the moderator's jurisdiction. As many of you may or may not know, the moderators can ban users and remove comments, but cannot control who votes on posts. We cannot see who votes, nor can we stop organized vote manipulation on this level. Even banned users can vote, and that is something I truly need to underscore. This has been a long time problem by bad actors and shills, and now it poses to be a real problem with the Knights of New, since they are primarily self-appointed and could easily be infiltrated or impersonated by bad actors. This would be very bad for the sub as a whole, and terrible for anyone who is identifying as a Knight of New.
|
||||
|
||||
I urge you to please report users who are pushing any vote manipulation, and please bring it to our attention if you discover organized efforts in off-reddit mediums such as Discord and Twitter. We like the idea, but cannot support the execution and nature of the Knights of New. Therefore, we are detaching ourselves entirely from the concept as mods. Thank you for understanding.
|
||||
|
||||
If you ever received Knights of New flair, and would like to change it, mods will be happy to adjust, but since we can be rather busy, you can always comment !buckleup! to replace your current flair!
|
||||
|
||||
Community Awards Design Contest Update
|
||||
|
||||
This is a really quick update. TLDR: We have been very busy with the anti-brigading issues of the sub, and [this contest](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/o178u3/official_superstonk_community_awards_design/) has been delayed. However, we have received over 150 submissions, and plan to put the bracket together soon, but I am prioritizing these other important matters before this contest. I am hoping we can kick it off next week. Thank you for understanding.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/589414i1pm871.png?width=300&format=png&auto=webp&s=f9f98627daace4aaec4e8bd2d0e2174749691e58)
|
||||
|
||||
The Future of YouTube Channel
|
||||
|
||||
Many of you were disappointed in one or two of our previous streams. We heard you and made serious changes. We are very proud of our new Monkey Business segment, which features local apes such as yourselves, and we have some exciting AMA guests we hope to bring on soon. However, we are prioritizing the moderating necessities of the subreddit itself, and hope to continue these side projects when we have the capacity.
|
||||
|
||||
Onward, and Upward 🚀
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/dt2eo2d3pm871.png?width=728&format=png&auto=webp&s=16ca282866e208fc2115937afc6e5c086ca9ac2a)
|
||||
|
||||
Moass Effect: Legendary Edition
|
||||
|
||||
I want to again thank each and every one of you for your dedicated support and activity in [r/Superstonk](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/). We truly have grown at an incredible rate, and I can only remain excited for the future, despite some of the obstacles we've faced. It's been one crazy ride, and I hope this ride continues until we find ourselves past the moon, past Andromeda, and onward. TO THE MOON 🚀🚀🚀
|
||||
|
||||
Back to [u/pinkcatsonacid](https://www.reddit.com/u/pinkcatsonacid/) 🐈🦄
|
||||
|
||||
_______________________________________________________________________________
|
||||
|
||||
Feds are snooping through Vlad's Phone 👀
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/gypuavbhqn871.png?width=1079&format=png&auto=webp&s=fe4550e47219f2687e474dcd895495d5a9d4c7ef)
|
||||
|
||||
State Attorney General, SEC, And the US Dept. of Justice have seized his cell phone and are currently investigating Vlad Tenev. This is interesting because not only are they investigating the Robinhood buy button removal, this discovery period is giving us a glimpse into the agencies involved in the overall Gamestop investigation on a Federal level.
|
||||
|
||||
[You can read more here.](https://www.businessinsider.com/robinhood-ceo-cell-phone-search-warrant-ipo-filing-vlad-tenev-2021-7)
|
||||
|
||||
_______________________________________________________________________________
|
||||
|
||||
New "Wut Doing?" high score
|
||||
|
||||
Goldman Sachs, June 30 2021, 10:30PM
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/09vvrqi65m871.png?width=640&format=png&auto=webp&s=54f48e60db81c3af23ddb872e6e17948a797595d)
|
||||
|
||||
credit u/Sock_floaties
|
||||
|
||||
This one definitely wins the buildings with lights on high score!
|
||||
|
||||
Now, Goldman Sachs is likely all lit up because of the end of the quarter on RRPs and probably has something to do with the record highs we have been seeing, but who knows.
|
||||
|
||||
All I know is, that's a lot of lights, and presumably a lot of employees working late under those lights.
|
||||
|
||||
_______________________________________________________________________________
|
||||
|
||||
Mainstream Media (NY Post) is now reporting how fukt Citadel is- and in particular, Ken Griffin
|
||||
|
||||
👽Great Big Fat Opinion Flair👽
|
||||
|
||||
*Ok I've edited the photo to abide by the guidelines of the sub- no politics, which includes mentions of particular president's name. I've removed content for this before, so it's only fair to set a good example. And normally I wouldn't even bother to share something if it requires this level of editing to fit the rules. But this merits the effort and exception.*
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/7sip637evm871.jpg?width=270&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=244de6c00322d595105dd2e5aa9ca0daa39f90c3)
|
||||
|
||||
New York Post article from 06-30-2021
|
||||
|
||||
Now, the big story here, to me, isn't exactly the executive order, although that could be dope af and could possibly toast the hedgies into oblivion. Who knows, I haven't looked into it.
|
||||
|
||||
The story here, is the way the story itself is written.
|
||||
|
||||
How many "Wall Street Titans" are there? How many big Wall St. businesses?
|
||||
|
||||
Why did the Mainstream Media decide that Ken Griffin was going to be the face and name used as an example in a story about the President taking down Wall Street? I mean, there are presumably hundreds or thousands of prominent professionals within the industry. But they chose Ken and Citadel. Is it because their crimes are a hot topic of discussion in MSM? /s
|
||||
|
||||
I think there are rumors spreading in high places... of Kenny and co's demise.
|
||||
|
||||
Media's number 1 job is to curate a narrative. We all know that. And it seems to me that they are curating a new narrative to help paint a picture as big "Wall Street Titans" begin to fall from their rehypothecated throne in the impending market crash. Buckle up for liftoff. 🚀🚀🚀🚀
|
||||
|
||||
_______________________________________________________________________________
|
||||
|
||||
We Like the Company! We Support the Company!
|
||||
|
||||
Obviously you're a shareholder because you love Gamestop and have high hopes for its future. Supporting the company you love on the retail front is a great way for a shareholder to ensure a business' success! Here are several ways you can show your public support for Gamestop;
|
||||
|
||||
- [Shop at Gamestop.com](https://www.gamestop.com/)
|
||||
|
||||
- [Become a PowerUp Rewards Member](https://www.gamestop.com/poweruprewards/)
|
||||
|
||||
- [... Which gets you a subscription to Game Informer Magazine](https://www.gameinformer.com/)
|
||||
|
||||
- [Follow Gamestop on Twitter](https://twitter.com/GameStop)
|
||||
|
||||
- [Subscribe to Gamestop's YouTube Channel](https://www.youtube.com/user/gamestopvideo)
|
||||
|
||||
- [Follow Gamestop on Twitch](https://www.twitch.tv/gamestop)
|
||||
|
||||
- [Follow Gamestop on Instagram](https://www.instagram.com/gamestop/?hl=en)
|
||||
|
||||
- [Follow Gamestop on Facebook](https://www.facebook.com/GameStop)
|
||||
|
||||
- [Apple Devices- Download the Gamestop App](https://apps.apple.com/us/app/gamestop/id406033647) (Link to App Store)
|
||||
|
||||
- [Android Devices- Download the Gamestop App](https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=com.gamestop.powerup) (Link to Play Shop)
|
||||
|
||||
- Brands owned by Gamestop; ThinkGeek, GameInformer, [MicroMania](https://www.micromania.fr/), and [EB Games](https://www.ebgames.ca/)
|
||||
|
||||
- [Gamestop Ireland](https://www.gamestop.ie/), [Gamestop Germany](https://www.gamestop.de/)
|
||||
|
||||
Please remember apes, as you are interacting with Gamestop Social Media, that their objective is to reach gamers and promote their brand to their demographic. Yes it's fun when they tweet MOASS and Chickie Tendies, but let's not flood them with comments about Ken, Naked Short Selling, and Mayonnaise. Let's show them support by joining, contributing to, and expanding their robust community of gamers!
|
||||
|
||||
______________________________________________________________________________
|
||||
|
||||
🚨 Reddit down 🚨
|
||||
|
||||
With Reddit having issues during high traffic, exciting moments in this saga, we have discussed what to do if Reddit has an outage.
|
||||
|
||||
IF REDDIT GOES DOWN AT A PIVOTAL MOMENT A LARGE PORTION OF THE MOD TEAM IS ON TWITTER.
|
||||
|
||||
<https://twitter.com/ByeTriangle>
|
||||
|
||||
<https://twitter.com/PinkCatsOnAcid>
|
||||
|
||||
<https://twitter.com/RedChessQueen99>
|
||||
|
||||
<https://twitter.com/rensole>
|
||||
|
||||
<https://twitter.com/u_sharkbaitlol>
|
||||
|
||||
<https://twitter.com/BradduckF>
|
||||
|
||||
IF THERE IS SOMETHING BIG GOING ON WHILE THE OUTAGE IS HAPPENING WE MAY ALSO UTILIZE THE "EMERGENCY BROADCAST SYSTEM" TO RELAY INFO:
|
||||
|
||||
[SuperstonkLive YouTube - Emergency Broadcast System](https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCI4EET9NJPWxUuXGlG6fxPA)
|
||||
|
||||
___________________________________________________________________________________
|
||||
|
||||
*OOK OOK*
|
||||
|
||||
*"I may have been early, but I am not wrong"*
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/17tme4z2mm871.png?width=1600&format=png&auto=webp&s=0d171416de9d477007c2c23399db7978bf209517)
|
Some files were not shown because too many files have changed in this diff Show More
Reference in New Issue
Block a user