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00-Getting-Started/2021-05-27-GME-Explained-for-New-Apes.md
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00-Getting-Started/2021-05-27-GME-Explained-for-New-Apes.md
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GME explained for new apes
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==========================
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||||||
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||||||
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| Author | Source |
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||||||
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| :-------------: |:-------------:|
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|
| [u/lawrgood](https://www.reddit.com/user/lawrgood/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/comments/nm40vh/gme_explained_for_new_apes/) |
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||||||
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---
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||||||
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[🔬 DD 📊](https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/search?q=flair_name%3A%22%F0%9F%94%AC%20DD%20%F0%9F%93%8A%22&restrict_sr=1)
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If you are new to the sub or have been struggling to wrap your head around the DD (due diligence), hopefully this can make things clearer.
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Why is GME's price changing?
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Short hedge funds (SHF) sold shares that they didn't own because they thought GME would go bankrupt.
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Think of it like an airline. There's only so many seats on the flight. The hedgies thought the flight was going to be cancelled so they printed some fake tickets and sold those too. Then the flight didn't get cancelled. Now, because there are only so many seats available, they need to stand at the gate and buy back the extra tickets, then rip them up so no-one tries to use them. It doesn't matter if that ticket was a real one or the fake one. They need to buy it and destroy it until only the original number remains.
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The problem is, everyone is really excited for the trip, so no-one wants to sell. So the price of the tickets is too high for the hedgies. Short term, they are printing even more tickets to give them cash to deal with the people at the front of the queue, but all that does is make the line longer. And there is still only the original number of seats on the plane.
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How can they sell shares that they don't own?
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If SHF think a stock will go down in price, they are allowed to locate and borrow shares from other people, sell them and try to buy them back later. To keep the metaphor going, they can give you a few bucks to hold your ticket and promise to sell it to me at today's price. Then if the price goes down they can buy it from you at the cheaper price to deliver to me.
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What we think has happened is, they didn't just borrow your ticket, they photocopied it and lent it to someone else at the same time as they sold it to me. As in, they lent out the shares they had borrowed. Because they have a few days to sort that out before anyone notices, they usually get away with it. Normally people buy and sell all the time so it gets lost in the noise.
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Isn't relending shares you've borrowed illegal?
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Yes. You aren't allowed to sell shares that don't exist. If you see the term "naked short selling" this is what they mean. There may be some misreporting going on to cover up the fact but punishments are relatively lean historically such as a proportionally small fine. There's been a lot of regulation changes in a short period of time which may be gearing up to deal with that.
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What's with the massive price spikes every so often?
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This is probably cyclical. If you see T+21 or T+35 mentioned this is referring to the time after a trade that they have to find that share they promised to give you. Market Makers get a little longer than your standard HF. Because shares are so hard to find, it could be that SHF have to keep kicking the can down the road. In our airline metaphor, this is them printing extra tickets. T+21 and T+35 would be the day that people are arriving to collect their tickets so the SHF needs to order more from the printers. The last week of May was when these two dates overlapped so lots of pressure to find shares to deliver.
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If the price keeps going up, who will pay?
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First the SHF has to buy back what they can from the market. If they run out of cash, the clearing house auction off all their stuff and buy back with that. If that's not enough, the clearing house is on the hook because they rubber stamped the trades. They can use the cash they have but, if they run out, they can ask for cash from their members.
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If that isn't enough, the DTCC is on the hook for failing to keep the records straight. If they run out of cash, it's down to the government for not intervening in the fraud soon enough. When it gets to this point, trillions will have been spent buying back shares.
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How long can they keep this going?
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No-one knows for sure. It seems that SHF are running low on money already. There have been massive sell offs across all their other holdings. This is why, when the market tanks, it's usually at the same time GME is doing well.
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There have been lots of rule changes too. The clearing houses are asking for more collateral (the money or assets that needs to be put up as assurance in order to keep or establish these short positions). They can also ask for reports more often and can force members to close their positions sooner.
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How do we know the SHF haven't bought back enough shares?
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There may be some misreporting going on. SHF's may be mislabeling short positions as long, not reporting them at all, or putting out press releases of how they have covered their positions. The fines for doing so are relatively minor, and if it means the difference between going bankrupt or getting another day to dig themselves out of a hole, there's a lot of incentive to cheat.
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There's been a large increase in whistleblower awards handed out by the SEC this year for information that leads to a penalty.
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The push to vote will shine a light on this. There is a shareholder meeting on June 9th and many have already voted. The vote count will give an insight into how many fake shares have been sold. Even this number will be lower than the true number. Remember that not all holders can/will vote.
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There are also other indicators that shares are hard to get hold of. Volumes traded each day have been declining meaning fewer shares are flying back and forth between traders. Shares have been harder to borrow than they were before.
|
||||||
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||||||
|
What's the company like?
|
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||||||
|
GME have had some great news lately. The incoming chairman is an e-commerce legend (Ryan Cohen) who is putting together a team to take the company into the future. He's already built a successful e-com company (Chewy) and is very customer focused with an eye for quality.
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||||||
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The latest news is that they are developing an NFT to be built using Ethereum. This will allow for digital games to be traded in and resold. An NFT is an encrypted record of who owns a specific digital asset. When you buy a game download, a corresponding digital coin would be minted that says it belongs to you. If you want to sell it on, you could transfer ownership of that coin just like you do with bitcoin or Ethereum now.
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||||||
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They also have no debt and $500+ million dollars in the bank.
|
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||||||
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None of this is investment advice. Do not take advice from internet strangers. I am in no way qualified to give it. If you think I've got any part wrong, call me out in the comments. If you think I need to add something, ask. If you have more questions, I will try to answer but, I repeat, I know almost nothing.
|
@ -0,0 +1,9 @@
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|||||||
|
# I Am Not a Financial Advisor PDF
|
||||||
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|
||||||
|
| Author | Source |
|
||||||
|
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||||
|
| [@iamnotafinadv](https://www.twitter.com/iamnotafinadv) | [Source](https://iamnotafinancialadvisor.com/) |
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
---
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
[GMEv14.zip](https://github.com/verymeticulous/wikAPEdia/files/6764891/GMEv14.zip)
|
@ -0,0 +1,33 @@
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|||||||
|
House of Cards Part 2 & 3 AUDIO
|
||||||
|
===============================
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
| Author | Source |
|
||||||
|
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||||
|
| [u/GoryAmos](https://www.reddit.com/user/GoryAmos/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nlzhrr/house_of_cards_part_2_3_audio/) |
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
---
|
||||||
|
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||||||
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[Discussion 🦍](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22Discussion%20%F0%9F%A6%8D%22&restrict_sr=1)
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||||||
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I'm one of those apes who needs to listen to the words while they read the words so I am making recordings of [u/atobitt](https://www.reddit.com/u/atobitt/)'s newest additions to the House of Cards trilogy. I figure I'm not the only ape who needs to hear stuff for it to make sense, so I'm sharing my recordings here. Please forgive any flubs and corrections of flubs - I'm reading it all in my head for the first time as I'm reading it all out loud.
|
||||||
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||||||
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The mp3 for Part 2 is...
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||||||
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The mp3 for Part 3 will be posted first thing in the AM, probably during pre-market. I'll update this post with the link when it's done.
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||||||
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||||||
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UPDATE: omg APES BROKE DROPBOX. I had no idea this would be this popular. My account's been suspended lol. I'm adding a feed to my libsyn podcast account and posting the links through that. Stay tuned, replacement link will be posted shortly
|
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||||||
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DOUBLE UPDATE: This is now officially a podcast. Takes some time for it to show up on all the podcast apps, but in the meantime you can listen directly on libsyn here: [https://superstonkddaudio.libsyn.com](https://superstonkddaudio.libsyn.com/)
|
||||||
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||||||
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I'll update again once Part 3 and Part 1 are done.
|
||||||
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||||||
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THRUPDATE (that's a portmanteau i just coined for "third update"): Part 3 is LIVE: <https://superstonkddaudio.libsyn.com/house-of-cards-pt-3-by-uatobitt>
|
||||||
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||||||
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The podcast name is SUPERSTONKDDAUDIO bc i'm an Ape and I forgot to use spaces.
|
||||||
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||||||
|
Spotify and Apple Podcast feeds are being worked on. Spotify should be live later tonight but Apple usually takes about a week to process a new podcast.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
I was so nervous to post the first recording last night - would Apes laugh? would Apes make fun? But I was nervous for naught! Apes support! Apes rejoice!
|
||||||
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||||||
|
So grateful for this community!
|
||||||
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||||||
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I LOVE THIS STONK.
|
@ -0,0 +1,232 @@
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|||||||
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The Sun Never Sets On Citadel -- Part 1
|
||||||
|
=======================================
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
| Author | Source |
|
||||||
|
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||||
|
| [u/swede_child_of_mine](https://www.reddit.com/user/swede_child_of_mine/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/o2xz48/the_sun_never_sets_on_citadel_part_1/) |
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
---
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
[DD 👨🔬](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22DD%20%F0%9F%91%A8%E2%80%8D%F0%9F%94%AC%22&restrict_sr=1)
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||||||
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||||||
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[Hello Superstonk](https://i.redd.it/y39nj0kvo2671.gif)
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||||||
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||||||
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Preface
|
||||||
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||||||
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I became bothered by a question a few months ago. The GME saga started with MAJOR fight in the financial landscape between Team Citadel vs. Team Other (Blackrock, Vanguard, etc.), and Superstonk is here now because of Team Other getting Ryan Cohen on the board at GME, then "retail" landed on the scene, now Apes, etc. But this ONE question always bothered me:
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> What did Citadel do to piss everyone off? WHY would they want to give Citadel the most epic beat down in financial history?
|
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||||||
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So I spent some time looking into that because it *must* be good and...
|
||||||
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||||||
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*HO BOY, GET YOUR POPCORN, I'VE GOT SOME GOODS TO SHARE WITH YOU AND IT'S GONNA BE JUICY*
|
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||||||
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* * * * *
|
||||||
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||||||
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Note: this is a strategy post. [u/atobitt](https://www.reddit.com/u/atobitt/) and [u/criand](https://www.reddit.com/u/criand/) focus on macro topics about Citadel's structure in the overall market, but this series is going to be about financial industry strategy. I have a master's degree in business and specialize in strategy and operations. While I don't have direct experience in finance per se, I really enjoy finding the "hows" and "whys" behind what businesses do.
|
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Also, I'll give shout outs to the Apes who did relevant DD before this. Parts of this are my own discovery, parts are building on the work of those who came before :) This is an overall picture.
|
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||||||
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Symbol indicators:
|
||||||
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|
||||||
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- [] - request for link to relevant DD ([r/Superstonk](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/) DD posts or legitimate sources)
|
||||||
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|
||||||
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* * * * *
|
||||||
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|
||||||
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1.0: Introduction
|
||||||
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|
||||||
|
The Price of $GME is artificial. Prior posts ([1](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/mn0q9q/theory_all_the_pieces_pt_1_the_anatomy_of_the/), [2](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/ms9z0n/theory_all_the_pieces_pt_2_the_deep_end_of_the/)) have covered how Citadel and other players in the market have greedily, illegally conspired to change the price of stocks for their own profit. While Citadel's criminal price manipulation of GME represents a failed scheme to fabricate shares for profit, this was only a small corner of a much larger body of activity. *Citadel's overall activity shows a plan to monopolize markets worldwide and control securities transactions at the exchange level*.
|
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||||||
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Yep.
|
||||||
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|
||||||
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Buckle up :)
|
||||||
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|
||||||
|
* * * * *
|
||||||
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|
||||||
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Key Term
|
||||||
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||||||
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Market Maker (or "MM") -- a special role in a stock exchanges around the world. An MM's primary role is to provide liquidity, or "to make sure there are shares available to buy if people want them" as well as "make sure there is a buyer if people want to sell." Exchanges need it: liquidity makes for easy buying and selling.
|
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||||||
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- A MM is the intermediary for almost any securities transaction. It is positioned between the exchange and the brokers/dealers/funds that do not have access to the exchange, or they use the MM to do the buying work for them, lol. Or the MM is positioned on the other side of a transaction, supplying the securities in demand.
|
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- A MM is always in a position of risk. They are constantly in a place to be on the losing side of a transaction if they "guess" wrong.
|
||||||
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||||||
|
- Note: Citadel has many branches, but it's two major branches are its hedge fund and its MM. I will be referring only to its MM activity.
|
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|
||||||
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* * * * *
|
||||||
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|
||||||
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1.1: Plus Ultra
|
||||||
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|
||||||
|
Take a moment to marvel at how Citadel has installed themselves in [so many markets around the world](https://www.fi-desk.com/market-structure-meet-the-new-market-makers/). They are Market Makers and/or liquidity providers in nearly every major exchange on earth: (*Note: my undersrtanding of a liquidity provider is that it's a bit like a less-powerful MM*)
|
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||||||
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[Citadel Securities own splash page](https://i.redd.it/tolp2scxfw571.png)
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||||||
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- US/North America: NYSE, NASDAQ, CBOE (not even going to bother with links here, you know they're there), [Toronto](https://www.tsx.com/trading/toronto-stock-exchange/order-types-and-features/market-maker-program/market-makers-list?id=5)
|
||||||
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|
||||||
|
- Europe: [London/Ireland](https://www.financemagnates.com/forex/brokers/citadels-technology-arm-posts-30-decline-in-2019-revenue/), Amsterdam[], Frankfurt[]
|
||||||
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|
||||||
|
- Asia/Pacific: Hong Kong, [Singapore](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-citadel-singapore/citadel-securities-hedge-fund-citadel-to-open-new-office-in-singapore-idUSKBN25K08J), Sydney [], Shanghai []
|
||||||
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|
||||||
|
- (Apologies on missing links, I've saved so many links through this whole drama that I can't find some of my sources anymore. And this is not the full list, this is only what I could put together for this post.)
|
||||||
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|
||||||
|
Citadel is truly an intmidating company based on the position it occupies in markets worldwide.
|
||||||
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|
||||||
|
1.2: E Pluribus Unum
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
So WHY has Citadel strived to achieve such a large footprint across the globe?
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
*Because there is a flaw in the markets across the world: it depends on Market Makers.*
|
||||||
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|
||||||
|
- Exchanges are set up to have several Market Makers providing liquidity.
|
||||||
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|
||||||
|
- So the Market Maker has responsibilities for supply and demand of a given security.
|
||||||
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|
||||||
|
- It's an essential service so exchanges empower MMs with exclusive powers and responsibilities.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Take a look at the exclusive powers the NYSE gives its DMMs (like a "Super" Market Maker): [From the NYSE DMM page](https://i.redd.it/n16pu83yiw571.png)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
- MMs have *Superpowers* and wield immense control over securities.
|
||||||
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|
||||||
|
- Exchanges rely on incentives for winning bids (coupons) as a way of creating competition and fair prices at the exchange.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
MMs are intended to be balanced by competing against each other
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
- ...so that the customers (brokers) can get the best value, and the Market Makers are financially rewarded for their service...
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
- ...but that means the MMs are competing for as many transactions as possible on the exchange. As much as their risk can allow.
|
||||||
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|
||||||
|
So the better the MMs are at managing risk, the more control they have over the exchange (because they capture more of the transactions)
|
||||||
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|
||||||
|
- And there are advantages for MMs who perform better and capture more volume -- they can leverage the volume to achieve better prices and capture even *more* transactions.
|
||||||
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|
||||||
|
- You've probably seen this chart, but it shows the size that MMs have become: [Citadel is almost as big as the CBOE -- the main options exchange for the US](https://i.redd.it/idkn9cchpn571.png)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
- (Citadel, Virtu, and G1 are all MMs.)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
- The important part about that graphic is the NYSE, NASDAQ, and CBOE volumes *include the transactions with Citadel and Virtu*.
|
||||||
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|
||||||
|
The MMs are becoming (or already are) bigger than the exchanges themselves. And the exchanges depend on them.
|
||||||
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|
||||||
|
- Furthermore, the exchange is limited -- to a certain location, structure, set of regluations, list of securities, etc. Almost all exchanges are for profit.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
- But if the exchange provides no security that can't be bought on another exchange, then the exchange needs to compete on best price - or else it's revenue goes away.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
- And exactly *who* at the exchange offers the best price?
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
- But a Market Maker is free to engage in multiple exchanges. So if a financial product is available in one exchange, but not another, and an MM is in both exchanges, then the Market Maker can offer it because it a separate entity (if it legally can).
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
- And the Market Maker is free offer their best price at multiple exchanges, or even directly.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
What advantage does the exchange itself have? They can't provide *anything* that the Market Makers themselves can't/don't provide.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
- *As an analogy, if you are used to shopping for separate items across several stores -- food at the farmers market, clothes at the mall, etc. -- a company like Amazon or WalMart will have an advantage by selling the same items for a comparable price in one convenient place.*
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
It's "malls" vs. "Target/WalMart/Amazon/Costco" all over. We all know who won that one.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
1.3: Man o' War
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
I mentioned "volume" earlier -- that is going to be key here.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
- Market Making is already very risky, but the size of the established players make it prohibitive for new entrants. A new MM would need significant advantages to compete against Citadel, Susquehanna, and Virtu who will have superior positioning, expertise, technology, market understanding, funding, risk tolerance...
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
> "The way to think about Citadel is as the Amazon of trading," says Spencer Mindlin, a capital markets technology analyst at Aite Group. In an industry that relies heavily on technology, Citadel has forged ahead by playing "a game of scale. You reach a point where it's impossible for others to compete," he says. [emphasis mine] - [Quartz](https://qz.com/1969532/how-ken-griffins-citadel-transformed-financial-markets/)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Backstory:
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
- In the early 2010's Ken tired to make Citadel an investment bank and failed (lol)....
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
- ...but it ended up being one of those "lemons to lemonade" things for him. Because Ken realized that other MMs were *banks*, which were a major disadvantage. You see, *Banks* were encumbered with "regulations", "capital requirements" and stupid "investors". But Market Makers didn't need a bank, so they didn't need to have those pesky constraints.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
- Then Ken stopped trying to be a bank. Which meant he could capture the MM market.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
- Citadel went on to buy out competing Market Maker assets from [Citi](https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2016/05/16/citadel-securities-buys-citi-market-making-assets/84437638/), [Goldman Sachs/IMC](https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/citadel-securities-reaches-preliminary-agreement-to-acquire-dmm-unit-from-imc-301149075.html), and [KCG](https://www.tradersmagazine.com/departments/brokerage/citadel-purchases-kcg-dmm-business-becomes-1-on-nyse/) to grow his market share and reduce compeition.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
- And now, the Market Maker field is NOT competitive. The number of DMMs in NYSE has decreased over the years.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
- Citadel has heavily "leveled-up" and is bar none THE biggest player on the field.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
This is why Citadel is in so many exchanges. Successful practices can be copied from one exchange to the next, with market advantages and rewards that scale. Why shouldn't Citadel be a MM in every major exchange on earth?
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
- But you realize what this means, right?
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
*The exchanges have become commodities.* They are necessary for fulfilling their role as a securites selling venue, but have no unique value to themselves.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
> "We already have 16 stock exchanges, over 30 ATSs and handful of market maker SDPs, do we really need the banks to further fragment liquidity?" [emphasis mine] - [Themis Trading](https://blog.themistrading.com/2020/12/14434/)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
The TRUE value to the market is a firm that spans multiple exchanges and offers the breadth of securities available at competitive prices.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
1.4: The Commonwealth
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
*But, but -- what about compeition? What about Virtu, G1, and the MMs in other countries? I thought you said this was a cOmPEtITivE field.*
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
It's true, Virtu & G1 do "compete" against Citadel. But they have an... "interesting" relationship which prompts some theories and requires further investigation.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
- First, Citadel needs to maintain the appearance of a free market to avoid antitrust lawsuits. They also need other Market Makers to offload the transactions that they are unwilling to take. A duopoloy or even triopoly is fine as long as they control the market.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
- Second, from Virtu's perspective (*they're the largest competitor so I'll use them here*), it doesn't make sense to go head-to-head directly with Citadel on transactions -- Citadel has better positioning and a technological edge.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
- And directly competing with a superior opponent would be expensive for Virtu. However, they would stand to profit from joining with Citadel if they took the same positions as them.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
- And wouldn't you know it, Apes have discovered that Virtu and Citadel are doing the *exact same things* across many tickers. Here are 2 famous ones: [MAX-D](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nyxs1f/learn_from_the_past_when_they_didnt_care_to_hide/), [GME](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nr6urb/i_look_up_top_brokers_for_gme_year_to_date_and/) [Any more Apes want to do asset comparison between Citadel & Virtu? CALLING SUPERSTONKS MOST QUANTED] (s/o to [u/BadassTrader](https://www.reddit.com/u/BadassTrader/), [u/JustBeingPunny](https://www.reddit.com/u/JustBeingPunny/), [u/Sti8man7](https://www.reddit.com/u/Sti8man7/))
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
- That said, Virtu could still compete *indirectly* - they would need to find a niche where they could gain an advantage and separate themselves from Citadel...
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
- ...and oh look Virtu seems [very focused on client experience](https://s21.q4cdn.com/422114427/files/doc_presentations/2020/09/Virtu-Financial-Presentation-Sept-2020-Draft-v3.pdf), where Citadel is focused on product and market position.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
So Virtu is disincentivized to directly compete against Citadel, and is incentivized to coordinate with and complement Citadel.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Monopoly much?
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
1.5: The Crown Jewel
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
If you STILL believe that being a Market Maker IS competitive and that exchanges are NOT commoditized, and that Virtu and Citadel are taking the same positions for non-collusive reasons ("*Exchanges are the pumping heart of a free economy! Of course EXCHANGES have control and NOT the Market Makers, the Market Makers are just making the plays they see are winners*"), and you need even more convincing... I have bad news.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
About 9 months ago the MEMX exchange opened.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
*Why is that a big deal? Who opened the exchange?* [*Let's check the MEMX website...*](https://memx.com/)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
- [Oh.](https://i.redd.it/ujeiloi5dw571.png)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
- Citadel and Virtu (and some other players you might recognize) *OPENED THEIR OWN EXCHANGE.*
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
- [Yeah.](https://i.redd.it/0kxh46xwcw571.jpg)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
"*But, but -- they wouldn't open their own exchange to profit at the expense of the market, would they?*"
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
- [*On the MEMX own splash page*](https://i.redd.it/gff2fr1edw571.png)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
- "*MEMX will represent the interests of its founders*" - MEMX.com
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
- So, founders first, everybody else after. FROM. THEIR. OWN. FUCKING. SPLASH. PAGE.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
"*But, but -- maybe it's just a small side thing and it's not really going anywhere?*"
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
- [Right. Yeah. Sure.](https://i.redd.it/owqyk8kxdw571.png)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
"*But, but -- wouldn't that piss off the other exchanges? They would want to attack the MEMX founders in some way, right?*"
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
- [Yup.](https://i.redd.it/hknpksgdew571.png)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Exchanges have become so commoditized and Market Makers have such an entrenched advantage that the dominant Market Makers have opened their own exchange, MEMX, whose primary purpose is to serve their interests at the expense of other exchanges.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
"Free market."
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
TL;DR
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Citadel is/was moving to monopolize securities transactions at the exchange level.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
- Market Makers have the most control over transactions at exchanges.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
- Citadel is the largest Market Maker across exchanges worldwide (*can't find the sauce []*).
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
- Citadel has more power than the exchanges do, offering more products, more ways to purchase them, in more venues than the exchanges.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
- Citadel has even started its own exchange in September 2020, which is growing rapidly.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
- MM Competition is deterred from directly competing with Citadel - they have too much influence, and competitors are incentivized to coordinate with Citadel, not compete.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
- The number of MMs have decreased in major exchanges while Citadel's market share is growing.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Structurally speaking, Citadel is in a position to directly control the price of many securities and transactions at the exchange level.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
And that's not even all of it. Part 2 coming soon...
|
@ -0,0 +1,449 @@
|
|||||||
|
The Sun Never Sets on Citadel -- Part 2
|
||||||
|
=======================================
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
| Author | Source |
|
||||||
|
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||||
|
| [u/swede_child_of_mine](https://www.reddit.com/user/swede_child_of_mine/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/od4bb1/the_sun_never_sets_on_citadel_part_2/) |
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
---
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
[DD 👨🔬](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22DD%20%F0%9F%91%A8%E2%80%8D%F0%9F%94%AC%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
[Part 1](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/o2xz48/the_sun_never_sets_on_citadel_part_1/)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Apes, I'm stunned. I've rewritten this post several times because of what I've discovered. I haven't seen it anywhere else on Superstonk.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
All of this is intertwined. I won't be able to get to all of the pieces of Citadel in this part so this DD will continue... and build... into Part 3.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
This is a fucking ride.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
* * * * *
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Preface, part 1: Kudos
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
First I'd like to follow up on some key critiques from [Part 1](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/o2xz48/the_sun_never_sets_on_citadel_part_1/) and give kudos:.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
- EU MMs -- MAJOR kudos to [u/NoughtyNought](https://www.reddit.com/u/NoughtyNought/) who did digging on finding [the list of EU MMs](https://www.esma.europa.eu/sites/default/files/library/list_of_market_makers_and_primary_dealers.pdf).
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
- DE markets -- MAJOR kudos to [u/LNhamburg](https://www.reddit.com/u/LNhamburg/) who has been looking into European markets since February and even followed up on my post with an [awesome post of their own](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/o3c7ar/a_european_footprint_after_reading_the_sun_never/).
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
But first, I need to apologize. I erroneously said Citadel was an MM across the EU in Part 1. I found conflicting sources, and Citadel *is* an MM in Ireland, but I should have clarified. I'll explain more on "how" and "why" I missed this later, but props to these Apes above who did their Due Due Diligience, I am in your debt. (*"To err is human..."*)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
- Several users also pointed out: MEMX lists several "friendly" institutions, including BlackRock and Fidelity, as founders, not just Citadel and Virtu.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
- This is true! Kudos to the several users who broght this up: [u/mattlukinhapilydrunk](https://www.reddit.com/u/mattlukinhapilydrunk/), [u/Robin_Squeeze](https://www.reddit.com/u/Robin_Squeeze/)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
So what should we make of Citadel being at MEMX? *Does Citadel really control MEMX -- or even monopolize the market -- if Blackrock, Virtu, and Fidelity are there too?*
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
* * * * *
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
2.0: Introduction
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
The price of $GME is artificial. Prior posts have shown how $GME is being illegally manipulated by key players to the financial system, namely Citadel. These companies abuse their legitimate privileges to profit themselves at the expense of the market and investors. But it goes much deeper: Citadel is now positioned to do more than just monopolize securities transactions. Citadel is positioned to BE the market for securities transactions.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Wait, what?
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Buckle up.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
* * * * *
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
2.1: KING, I
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Citadel's influence on the market is all due to one quality: Volume.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Volume is king.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
- There is no way to understate it. Remember [this chart?](https://i.redd.it/idkn9cchpn571.png) Citadel and Virtu's combined volume being larger than ANY exchange is only the *beginning*, it's our *starting point*.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Do you want to know why it's taking so long to MOASS?
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
- Look at this [tweet estimating the fees the MMs make off of volume.](https://i.redd.it/0ruptccy0u871.png) - [sauce](https://twitter.com/EricBalchunas/status/1354775322445701128)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
- MMs made an estimated $350M+ in four days. January 27 (the "sneeze") [volume was 24.8 billion equities traded](https://www.marketsmedia.com/us-equity-trading-volume-reaches-record/) for a single day.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
- (we now know the MMs also took the full income of the shares they sold since they were selling pledged shares and never delivered)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
- This illustrates how the MMs generate revenue off of any volume. They do this with nearly any security or transaction they make a market for.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
*So the same activities that empower Apes to create the MOASS also provide the MMs with more resources to prolong the arrival of MOASS.*
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
What a fuckin' paradox.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
* * * * *
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
2.2: Kneel before the crown
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Volume is king. Once a firm hits a critical mass of transactions, it become impossible NOT to deal with that firm. For example:
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Exchanges
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
- The NYSE & Nasdaq view Citadel/MEMX as a threat. Look at this article posted on the Nasdaq website [regarding MEMX](https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/the-answer-to-memx-2020-07-06):
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
> "MEMX will provide market makers with the ability to bypass the exchanges entirely." (*lol, so pissy*)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
*(credit to *[u/Fantasybroke](https://www.reddit.com/u/Fantasybroke/)* for their *[*awesome comment*](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/o2xz48/the_sun_never_sets_on_citadel_part_1/h2936st/)*)*
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
- As much as these exchanges might be "frenemies" with Citadel, they still need to function as businesses.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
- This pandemic posed a major issue for the NYSE: *how could they do IPOs* -- a critical function for exchanges -- *when all traders were remote?*
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
- They relied on Citadel. [Nine times](https://www.businessinsider.com/how-citadel-securities-dmms-are-handling-ipos-remotely-2020-5).
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
- There was *no other firm* that had the capability to execute. Only Citadel.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Brokers
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
- Awhile back there was a post about how a broker sent notice to clients saying in effect that they wouldn't know how to source their transactions in the event of Citadel defaulting. Users should expect delays in transactions if that happened.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
- (*eToro? WeBull? Schwab? TDA?* *Superstonk I need the source, help![]*)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
- If confirmed, this implies major brokerages are becoming or already are reliant on Citadel for basic, essential functions.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
[WHAT. THE. FUCK.](https://www.reactiongifs.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/10/tom-delonge-wtf1.gif)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Let me it say again another way: we are at a point where MAJOR BROKERAGES AND EVEN EXCHANGES DO NOT KNOW HOW TO FUNCTION WITHOUT CITADEL.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
But it's bigger than that -- it's not just key players in the market that are reliant on Citadel.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
But first.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
* * * * *
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
2.3: The Four Corners
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
> *We... manufacture money.*\
|
||||||
|
> *-- Ken Griffin*
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
That Ken Griffin quote stood out to me, I have a background in operations with experience in manufacturing & logistics. "Manufacture" implies certainty of output, given the correct inputs. Looking at Citadel's actions in the context of manufacturing - supply and demand -- we can reverse engineer the strategy. Understand how we got here. Let's go. (*This is important groundwork, but if you need to skip you can jump to "2.4: Corner 3: Buyer"*)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Overview
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
You can think of the financial industry as one that manufactures "transactions", in the same way that the automotive industry manufactures "vehicles" of all varieties.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
To manufacture a transaction requires a buyer, a seller, a product, and is produced in a venue (a.k.a. a "Transaction factory").
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
- The national "supply" comes from the collection of the different "factories": exchanges, ATS's (Dark Pools), SDP's (single-company terminals), etc. Each of the venues produces a slice of the overall Transactions pie chart.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
- Supply of "raw materials" (lol) - buyers and sellers with products - flow into the various factories. Exchanges have been the primary "Transaction factories" for centuries. NYSE and Nasdaq still produce a large portion of US transactions every year.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
- These exchanges employ Market Makers as a permanent stand-in buyer, seller, or provider of products at the exchanges -- whatever is needed. Exchanges charter MMs to provide the missing pieces to complete the transactions, and provide the MMs with special abilities to do so. Because exchanges benefit from having MMs.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
So...
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
if you were a Market Maker, and you already provide the raw materials for buyer, seller, and product pieces of "production," what would you want to do next if you wanted to grow?
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
You would want a venue. Then you could manufacture transactions independently.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
So guess what Citadel wants to do?
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
But -- is Citadel is ready? Do they really have enough Products, Sellers, and Buyers to supply a "factory" of their own?
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
* * * * *
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
2.2: Corner 1: PRODUCT
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Product is about range. Range of available products is CRITICAL feature demanded by clients, as well as the necessary volume.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Storytime:
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
- A few months back a reddit user commented about their experience working at a financial firm (*for the love of everything I can't find the comment now -- Superstonk help again!?[]*). I don't remember the username, probably something like "stocksniffer42" or whatevs, lol. Let's call him "Greg."
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
- Greg would occasionally need to make securities transactions at a nearby terminal, a couple times a week. Price wasn't really important to Greg.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
- But what WAS significant was availability. Greg had providers he preferred because they had what he needed. When they didn't it was super inconvenient for him because THEN Greg would have to search through enough providers to find what he needed. The more "availability" that a certain provider offered, the more likely Greg used them.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
- This is pretty much the Amazon/WalMart/Target strategy. You're more likely to buy from them since they have everything. Even if it's not the lowest price.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Exchanges have a limited offering -- CBOE doesn't offer the same products as NYSE and vice-versa.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Huh, look at that. Citadel is a MM for multiple exchanges - CBOE, NYSE, and NASDAQ. Looks like Citadel can offer options, securities, bonds, [swaps](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-09-01/ken-griffin-gets-redemption-in-swaps-market-once-ruled-by-banks), and pretty much [any product under the sun](https://www.citadel.com/disclosures/).
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Seems like they have "Product" pretty well sorted. What about the other pieces?
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
* * * * *
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
2.3: Corner 2: SELLER
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Generally, Sellers are interested in only PRICE. However, price is the LEAST important aspect of all demand, believe it or not. (*Note: we'll assume some interests overlap between buyer and seller because the same party can alternate roles.*)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Price is supported market-wide by a sense of trust and pre-arranged transaction costs:
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
- Price is set nationally by the NBBO -- [the National Best Bid and Offer](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/n/nbbo.asp). A national price range that establishes trust with buyers and sellers. Everybody abides by it. [Nobody will be scamming anyone on price in the NBBO](https://www.law.berkeley.edu/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/bartlett_mccrary_latency2017.pdf). Because...
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
- Venues (like exchanges) don't make money off price, they make it from member fees, or sub-penny fees.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
- Product prices can vary quickly, so it's somewhat relative. Precision pricing isn't a concern for the vast majority of non-HFT trades.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
- Buyers will proceed if the price is within their acceptable range and doesn't have an undue markup.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
- Market Makers make very little money on individual transactions, usually.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
- (We individual retail investors may want maximum profit through a single transaction (**cough** DIAMOND HANDS **cough**)... but not Market Makers.)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
However, institutional sellers have an additional price agenda:
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
- Volume sellers don't want to flood the market of their given security, dropping the price right as they sell. They want to offload the asset in a price-friendly way.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
- Strategic sellers don't want the marketplace to know that they changed a position, they want to keep their transactions private.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
These sellers would want a venue that won't affect the public price and remains private.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
So price agenda is relative - it's up to each party to decide their interests. At the point of transaction price is either pre-negotiated (for volume sells), or else *precise* price does not matter for non-HFT transactions. (*Would you sell $XYZ at $220.05 but NOT at $220.02?*)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Strategically, if Citadel wanted to increase its volume of sellers it would need:
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
- the ability to absorb large volumes of securities (i.e. buy a lot at a competitive price)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
- source a large volume of buyers to match with the sellers.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
- have a private transaction venue to attract sellers of any volume
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Interesting. Seems like Citadel is probably already doing a lot of this activity through the exchanges or Dark Pools they might be connected to.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
How about the last piece?
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
* * * * *
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
2.4: Corner 3: BUYER
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
A Buyer is interested in one thing: EASE OF ACCESS.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
*Like Greg, a buyer wants easy access to a range of securities, acceptable prices, and easy access to to sellers.*
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Citadel can be all of these and/or provide them, but, wait --
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
How exactly can clients BUY from Citadel?
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
*Maybe clients can buy from Citadel on the public exchanges?*
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
- True, but Citadel could still lose the bid. Or pay additional fees, or lose on the bid-ask spread.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
- Also, that's no good for Citadel. It means the clients are coming to the exchanges, which are the venues Citadel is trying to compete against.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
*Perhaps their target clients are institutions that want the kind of lower-cost, lower-visibility option that a Dark Pool offers? Can clients buy from Citadel on one of the many Dark Pools/ATSs?*
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
- Yes, but the Dark Pools can be "pinged" by HFTs to reveal positions and interest. Someone else could front run the transaction.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
- And again, the venue would be making the transaction, not Citadel.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
*So why doesn't Citadel do their own Dark Pool then? Why should the US's largest Market Maker pay to use someone else's Dark Pool?*
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
- Okay, let's check if Citadel Has their own ATS. Hmmm... that's weird. There is [no ATS registered to Citadel](https://www.sec.gov/files/data/alternative-trading-system-ats-list/atslist053121.pdf). *Anywhere.*
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
- (Dark Pools have to [register through form ATS-N](https://www.sec.gov/divisions/marketreg/form-ats-n-filings.htm) due to SEC regulation ATS)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
*So if Citadel has to compete for buyers in exchanges, and they pay to go through Dark Pools, then why, or how, do clients buy from Citadel? How does Citadel get its volume?*
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Easy.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Citadel Connect.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
*Wait, what?*
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
[Citadel Connect](https://i.redd.it/v35705zpru871.png).
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
That's right. You've been in these subs for 6 months and you haven't heard of Citadel Connect? Citadel's "not a Dark Pool" Dark Pool? (That's not by coincidence, btw).
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
[*MOTHERFUCKER WHAT?!?!*](https://i.redd.it/wy0fpnnb0u871.jpg)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Citadel Connect is an SDP, not an ATS. The difference is the reporting requirements. SDPs do not have to make the disclosures that either the exchanges or even the ATSs (a.k.a. Dark Pools) have to.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
- (FINRA once took a look at [regulating SDPs](https://www.sec.gov/rules/sro/finra/2019/34-86315.pdf), but decided [not to](https://i.redd.it/328lgq1s1v871.png)).
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
[Yep.](https://media0.giphy.com/media/UvtKiyeWYEhRC/giphy.gif?cid=ecf05e47d9juouou9jrbshblwc2adl6q17tv6g424rp2kvoi&rid=giphy.gif&ct=g)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
There is a laughable amount of search results for Citadel Connect on Google. There are no images of it that I could find. I believe it is an API-type feed that plugs into existing order systems. But I couldn't tell you based on searches. I found no documentation -- just allusions to its features.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
- So when the SEC regulated ATSs in 2015, Ken shut down Citadel's actual Dark Pool, [Apogee](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-citadel-darkpool/citadel-securities-to-close-apogee-dark-pool-sources-idUSKBN0MN22Q20150327), in order to avoid visibility altogether. Citadel started routing transactions [through Citadel Connect](https://www.reuters.com/article/citadel-darkpool/citadel-sees-volume-surge-in-its-citadel-connect-dark-pool-idUSL2N0LQ17H20140221) instead.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
- Citadel Connect doesn't meet the definition of an ATS. There is no competition -- no bids, no intent of interest, no disclosures -- nothing. It is one order type from one company.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
- Order type is IOC (Immediate Or Cancel), and the output is binary -- a type of "yes" or "no". You deal only with Citadel.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
- *"Citadel, here's 420 shares of $DOOK, will you buy at $6.969?"*
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
- "YES" --> *transaction complete*, or
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
- "NO" --> *end transaction*
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
- Since it's private, the only information that comes out of the transaction is what's reported to the tape, 10 seconds after the transaction.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
*Okay, so you're just buying from a single company, that doesn't seem like a big deal. And aren't there are *[*a lot of other SDPs*](https://blog.themistrading.com/2020/12/14434/)*? So why is this a problem?*
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
By itself? Not a problem. Buyers and sellers love it, I'm sure.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
However...
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
* * * * *
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
2.5: KING, II
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Volume is king.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Citadel does such volume that it is considered a "securities wholesaler", one of only a few in the US. Like Costco, or any wholesale business, it deals in bulk. But Citadel can deal in small transactions, too.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Citadel has a massive network of sales connections through its Market Maker presence at US exchanges. It capitalizes on the relationships through Citadel Connect, turning them into clients.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
- Citadel has a market advantage with its volume of clients.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Citadel Connect integrates into existing ATSs and client dashboards (here's an example from [BNP Paribas](https://i.redd.it/dojfd7lyru871.png) - [sauce](https://globalmarkets.cib.bnpparibas/app/uploads/sites/4/2021/05/execution-venues-us-version.pdf)). Like Greg's testimonial, I suspect it's easy for just about any financial firm to deal directly with Citadel.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
- Citadel has an ease of access advantage.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
And given Citadel's wide range of products it conducts business in and is a Market Maker for, I'm sure Citadel is an attractive option for just about anyone in the financial industry who wants to buy or sell a financial product of any kind. Competitive prices. Whether in bulk or in small batches. Whether privately or publicly. However frequently, or whatever the dollar amount might be.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
- Citadel has a privacy and pricing advantage.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Like Amazon, WalMart, and Target, Citadel is offering *everything*: a wide range of products, nearly any volume, effortless ease of access, the additional powers of an MM, and a nearly ubiquitous presence. Doing so lets Citadel capture a massive amount of market share. So much that it is prohibitive to other players, relegating them to smaller niche offerings and/or a smaller footprint.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
- Citadel has market presence advantage.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
* * * * *
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
2.6: The Final Piece: VENUE
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
So guess what Citadel wants to do?
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
But... do you get it? Have you figured it out?
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Citadel doesn't need to get a venue.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Citadel *IS* the venue.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Citadel is [internalizing](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/i/internalization.asp) a substantial volume of transactions from the marketplace. It's conducting the transactions inside its own walls, acting AS the venue in itself.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Said another way, Citadel is "black box"-ing the transaction market, and it's doing so at a [massive volume](https://i.redd.it/drdcsznn0u871.png) - [sauce](https://www.rblt.com/market-reports/let-there-be-light-us-edition-24).
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
- *Okay, so it sounds like Citadel is just buying and selling from multiple parties, and making a profit off the spread. Every firm does that, though, right? It's just arbitrage, it doesn't make them an exchange.*
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Citadel is offering the features of an exchange, or even benefiting from existing exchanges (i.e. the NBBO, MM powers across multiple exchanges) without any of the regulations of an exchange. It can offer more products, more easily, more quickly, more cheaply, and more privately than an exchange could. It's so non-competitive that IEX - yeah, the exchange - [wrote about the decline of exchanges](https://medium.com/boxes-and-lines/the-rising-tide-of-broker-costs-and-the-shrinking-pool-of-competitors-40d4d389e59a):
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
> "...trends of the past decade have seen a sharp increase in costs to trade on exchanges, a sharp decrease in the number of exchange broker members, and a steady erosion in the ability of smaller or new firms to compete for business."
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
It is doing this at the same time that brokers and even exchanges are relying on Citadel more and more. And, by the way - *why are they so reliant on Citadel in the first place?* Glad you asked.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Volume is limited. So the more volume Citadel takes...
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
- ...the less volume there is for the competition.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
- ...the more reliant the other players are on Citadel for buying and selling.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
- ...the less profit for competitors, so the more expensive their services have to be.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
This "rich-get-richer" advantage is known as a "virtuous cycle" (hah -- "virtuous") -- one of the most sought-after business advantages.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Citadel is capturing and internalizing more and more transactions, driving up costs for exchanges and making the competition smaller and smaller while also making them more dependent on Citadel to conduct critical business operations.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
"Free market"
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
* * * * *
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
2.7: "...to forgive, devine."
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Apes, I told you I would follow up on "how" and "why" I missed on Citadel not being an MM across the EU.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
The EU marketplace is structured differently than the American markets, with different rules and roles. I knew Citadel had a massive presence in the EU, I just missed the role. I think you can put together [why](https://i.redd.it/axa0gpvap1971.png).
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
* * * * *
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
2.8: TL;DR
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Citadel is moving beyond monopolizing the MM role, it has captured a massive portion of all securities transactions and is moving them off-exchange. For an undisclosed portion of transactions, Citadel IS the market.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
- Citadel positioned itself to provide every piece required to provide transactions -- buyers, sellers, product -- at an unrivaled scale, allowing it to be a wholesale internalizer.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
- ("Internalizing" here is shorthand for "one company acting as a private exchange without exchange regulations or oversight").
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
- Citadel does this through an SDP called "Citadel Connect," which is a type of Dark Pool that doesn't require disclosure.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
- Citadel's overall volume and market position are prohibitive to new competition and also drives away all but the largest competitors.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
- Even exchanges are losing volume to Citadel's OTC market share, threatening the exchanges' position in the market.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Citadel is capturing more and more of the transactions market, experiencing less competition, as it enjoys more and more entrenched advantages, at the expense of the market and the investor.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
This is the groundwork that will set us up for Part 3.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
* * * * *
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Part 3 coming soon...
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
* * * * *
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
EPILOGUE: Dieu et mon droit
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
"But it's bigger than that -- it's not just key players in the market that are reliant on Citadel."
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Including this after the TL;DR for all to see. This is why I was delayed.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
This is a 2 minute video from Citadel's own page. [Watch it.](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eVfxEBE-nI4&t=158s) It blew me away when I saw it, and I'll explain why below. Transcription mine (streamlined version):
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
> *Mary Erodes:* That's a really important shift. The groups that used to make markets, i.e. step in when no one else was there, were the banks. They have shrunk by law. So when we need liquidity in the future... [points at Ken] He's has a fiduciary obligation to care only about his shareholders and his investors. He doesn't have an obligation to step in to make markets for the sake of making markets. It will be a very different playbook when we go through the liquidity crunch that eventually will come.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
> *Ken Griffin:* I think this is very interesting, "what is the role [Citadel] will play in the next great market correction?" ...[In financial crashes] no one buys the asset that represents the falling knife. The role of the market maker is to maximize the availability of liquidity to all participants. Because the perception and reality that you create liquidity helps to calm the markets. We worked with NYSE and the SEC to re-architect trading protocols... The role of large investment banks has been supplanted by not only Citadel Securities, but by a whole ecosystem of statistical arbitrage that will absorb risk that comes to market quickly.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
[emphasis mine]
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Let me summarize. Mary and Ken commented that:
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
- The old way of stabilizing financial crises was through multiple banks negotiating a solution to stabilize the economy.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
- Banks can no longer do this due to regulations and their position in the market.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
- Citadel (Ken) sees a Market Maker's role as a stabilizer, to make sure there are no violent price swings.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
- Citadel worked with NYSE and SEC to re-architect the markets/economy on this belief that MMs will stablize and calm markets.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
IF this is true, and IF what Ken spoke of is an accurate reflection of how the market is now structured, then here is the subtext and implications:
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
- Market Makers, specifically Citadel and Virtu, are now the ECONOMY'S "immune system," they are the first and best line of defense against catastrophic collapse.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
- Their function is to make sure that no single security or asset class can expose the market to overwhelming risk.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
- They manage this risk through statistical arbitrage and coordination with authorities (NYSE & SEC) on behalf of the market.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
- Citadel worked with the oversight organizations to influence the structure of the overall market.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Going deeper:
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Everyone in this room knew about naked shorting. And that Citadel was a primary culprit.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Which implies that somewhere, at some point, a deal was reached, tacitly or explicitly. The NYSE and SEC were in on it (at the time):
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Citadel/MM's get to control securities prices with relative impunity. Naked shorting and all.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
And in return, Citadel is responsible for making sure that no more crashes happen.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
[WHAT THE FUCK.](https://i.giphy.com/media/kGweWfIbaezO8/giphy.webp) I have no words.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
IF this is true, the implications for the MOASS are...
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
- Citadel defaulting is the equivalent of the entire economy getting full blown AIDS and spinal cancer at the same time. Knocking out the immune system and the functional response chain of the market.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
- This leaves the market vulnerable to violent price swings that can instantly bankrupt other players
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
- ...which is why the DTCC is so concerned about member defaulting and transferring of assets...
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
- ...and another reason why the MOASS is taking so long: every player in the economy needs Citadel's assets need to remain intact, to stabilize the market and continue acting as the immune system.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
This video is from 2018. It has been over 2 years since then, at the time of this writing.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Buy. Hodl.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
* * * * *
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Note 1: [u/dlauer](https://www.reddit.com/u/dlauer/) if you're reading this I'd like to connect re:part 3 - HMU with chat (DMs are off)\
|
||||||
|
Note 2: If you guys find the links I couldn't find (i.e. "Greg", and the brokerage letter saying Citadel defaulting would delay their transactions) - comment and I'll update!\
|
||||||
|
Note 3: Apes, I've seen responses to part one that end in despair. Be encouraged - regulators (NYSE, SEC, et. al) don't seem to like the current setup anymore. Gary Gensler's speech last month was laser-focused on Citadel and Virtu (and also confirms this DD):
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
> Further, wholesalers have many advantages when it comes to pricing compared to exchange market makers. The two types of market makers are operating under very different rules. [...]
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
> Within the off-exchange market maker space, we are seeing concentration. One firm has publicly stated that it executes nearly half of all retail volume.[2] There are many reasons behind this market concentration --- from payment for order flow to the growing impact of data, both of which I'll discuss.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
> Market concentration can deter healthy competition and limit innovation. It also can increase potential system-wide risks, should any single incumbent with significant size or market share fail.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
I don't think the guy likes Citadel very much lol
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
* * * * *
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Edit: I'm seeing some responses that think this post implies Citadel is all powerful or controls everything. Very much not the case. Apes have them by the balls. Buy and Hodl, as always. But it helps to know exactly *what* we are up against, and *why* the MOASS is taking time. Also, we don't really want Citadel to just change the name on the building and get a new CEO - that doesn't really solve the problem, does it?
|
@ -4,6 +4,7 @@
|
|||||||
| :---: | :---: |
|
| :---: | :---: |
|
||||||
| [GameStop Newsroom](https://gamestop.gcs-web.com/news-releases-0) | Stay up to date with GameStop's latest strategic initiatives. |
|
| [GameStop Newsroom](https://gamestop.gcs-web.com/news-releases-0) | Stay up to date with GameStop's latest strategic initiatives. |
|
||||||
| [GameStop Investor Relations](https://gamestop.gcs-web.com/home) | Source for GameStop's financial news. |
|
| [GameStop Investor Relations](https://gamestop.gcs-web.com/home) | Source for GameStop's financial news. |
|
||||||
|
| [Ape's Guide to the Galaxy](https://www.reddit.com/r/DDintoGME/comments/mnss65/the_apes_guide_to_the_galaxy_a_compilation_of_dds/?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share) | Compilation of DD, News, Announcements, Tools, and Resources |
|
||||||
| [GME DD](https://gmedd.com/) | Resource that aggregates a compilation of GME due diligence. |
|
| [GME DD](https://gmedd.com/) | Resource that aggregates a compilation of GME due diligence. |
|
||||||
| [GME Timeline](https://gmetimeline.com/) | Comprehensive timeline of GME-related events. |
|
| [GME Timeline](https://gmetimeline.com/) | Comprehensive timeline of GME-related events. |
|
||||||
| [GME Technical Analysis](https://www.investing.com/equities/gamestop-corp-technical) | Tracks technical analysis, news, and other insights for a particular stock. |
|
| [GME Technical Analysis](https://www.investing.com/equities/gamestop-corp-technical) | Tracks technical analysis, news, and other insights for a particular stock. |
|
||||||
|
@ -0,0 +1,86 @@
|
|||||||
|
Reverse Repos Showing Possible Evidence of Forced Liquidations
|
||||||
|
==============================================================
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
| Author | Source |
|
||||||
|
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||||
|
| [u/AcedVector](https://www.reddit.com/user/AcedVector/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nlxom6/reverse_repos_showing_possible_evidence_of_forced/) |
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
---
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
[DD 👨🔬](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22DD%20%F0%9F%91%A8%E2%80%8D%F0%9F%94%AC%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Pre-DD Message:
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Hello you beautiful apes! Before I get into this DD I just wanted to say that I am so proud of everyone for holding against these wall street crooks. We're finally starting to see some change happen and more and more people are starting to catch on to how fucked of a position the hedgies are really in right now, and it genuinely makes me happy that we've come from just some stupid retail investors looking for a quick buck to an educated mastermind of apes who scour the sub for DD and knowledge. With all that said, let's get into the DD!
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
The Good Stuff:
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
As I myself was scouring this sub for info I had come across an interesting [post](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nlu3wb/coincidental_link_in_decreasing_parties_for/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3) by [u/qwert4the1](https://www.reddit.com/user/qwert4the1/) (show them some love!) who had found a connection between the price surges in GME and the amount of counterparties within the reverse repo agreements. Specifically, they had mentioned that on days when there was a significant price increase compared to the norm (today, May 26th, would be a good example), the amount of counterparties who were accepted in the reverse repo agreements the day of or the day after had *decreased*. Now, why is this incredibly important if this connection holds true and how can it point to some interesting conclusions? To understand that, we have to understand the main prerequisite to these repo reverse agreements, which is according to the Fed FAQ page:
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
[An 80 billion max per counterparty, hm?](https://preview.redd.it/pv3jripp9k171.png?width=465&format=png&auto=webp&s=9f6e860076f899e8ad04354d7b02514dad450106)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
We also have to understand that in these overnight reverse repo agreements, the Desk (The Open Market Trading Desk the Fed uses for these transactions) sells treasury securities that it holds in the System Open Market Account (SOMA) to these eligible counterparties. What that means is that the aggregate counterparty amount of treasury securities that can be lended overnight is limited by the amount that is held in SOMA. As of May 19th, here are these amounts:
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
[Take note of the 4 TRILLION that it has in Treasury Notes and Bonds.](https://preview.redd.it/1lp15o74dk171.png?width=962&format=png&auto=webp&s=6fce3b40c66599b746de3b854f70768facf85ea3)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
So in other words, there are 2 limitations to take note of for overnight RRP agreements:
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
1. 80 billion max per counterparty
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
2. 4 trillion held in SOMA
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Why are these limitations important to take note of? Well, because the logical conclusion to draw is that the Fed uses these limitations to some extent in order determine whether they should accept or reject a counterparty in the agreement. This leads into why I feel the connection between the counterparties and the price surges in GME are important, because in my mind there's only a couple of explanations as to why the amount of counterparties in the ON RRP agreement would *decrease* as the price in GME *surges*:
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
1. The aggregate amount treasury securities lent to the counterparties in these agreements are reaching an uncomfortable amount so they are choosing their counterparties more carefully.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
2. Marge is calling some of the counterparties that could potentially have the treasury bonds be used as collateral for short positions in some certain stocks ( perhaps GME? ;) )and are forcefully liquidating them, thus they don't need to be part of the agreement. Side note: (If some of the counterparties are banks, then the hedge funds that banks are potentially lending these treasury bonds/notes to for collateral could be margin called and forcefully liquidated, thus the bank having no reason to ask for the bonds does not take part in the agreement.)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
3. A mix of the two
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Conclusion:
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Here's why I think we might be seeing both *forced liquidations* as well as *more selectivity from the Desk* in lending treasury securities, given that the connection between the counterparties and price surges in GME is correct:
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
- The 1st point alone wouldn't be enough of a reason to necessarily be more selective in choosing counterparties, as the current amount being lent (450 billion as of today) is about less than a quarter of the amount of the treasury notes/bonds in SOMA, and there are more than FOURTY counterparties as of the latest agreement.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
- If there are forceful liquidations happening among the counterparties(which are most likely banks), it serves as a threefold hit:
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
1. Less counterparties would be needed in these agreements, lowering the counterparty amount but raising the average amount of treasury bonds/notes lent per counterparty.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
2. With the average amount lent per existing counterparty increasing, the Fed has to take more into account what the counterparties are using these treasury bonds/notes for.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
3. If most of the existing counterparties are banks, who lend these treasury bonds/notes to hedge funds for collateral in a short position, and they learn the banks they have lent to beforehand but not anymore (from hedgies being forcefully liquidated) are being connected to margin calls and forced liquidations, the Fed would be less inclined to lend these bonds/notes to the banks currently in the agreement as time goes on as it would become more risky to do so.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
- These three points working in tandem with each other would lead to the Fed having a strong enough reason to be more selective to counterparties in future agreements, while also serving as a explanation for liquidations being a partial cause to the decrease in the amount of counterparties as as result of a GME price surge.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Sources:
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
[FAQs: Overnight Reverse Repurchase Agreement Operational Exercise - FEDERAL RESERVE BANK of NEW YORK (newyorkfed.org)](https://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/rrp_faq)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
[Repo and Reverse Repo Agreements - FEDERAL RESERVE BANK of NEW YORK (newyorkfed.org)](https://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/domestic-market-operations/monetary-policy-implementation/repo-reverse-repo-agreements)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
[Repo and Reverse Repo Operations - Federal Reserve Bank of New York (newyorkfed.org)](https://apps.newyorkfed.org/markets/autorates/tomo-results-display?SHOWMORE=TRUE&startDate=01/01/2000&enddate=01/01/2000)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
[System Open Market Account Holdings of Domestic Securities - FEDERAL RESERVE BANK of NEW YORK (newyorkfed.org)](https://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/soma-holdings)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
As always, thank you for reading my DDs you guys. I will try to hang in the comments for edits as well if anything. :)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Edit: 1.8k likes!! Holy mackerel thank you guys I appreciate your support very much. 🤠🙏
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Edit 2: WOW you guys are blowing this post out of the water! Thanks for 7k likes everybody! :)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Edit 3: I would like to point out some amazing counterpoints to this DD in the comments, as I feel it is always important to address both sides of the argument. No DD is perfect(mine certainly isn't) so I would like to thank you guys for bringing these points up:
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
1. Why use bonds/notes as collateral when they can just use cash when it comes to short positions in stocks?
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
2. If the Fed has been more selective in ON RRP agreements, wouldn't it be showing in their acceptance rate (which has always been 100%)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
3. Correlation does not equal causation, the GME price surge doesn't necessarily have to 100% be connected to a decrease in the counterparties.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
I'll admit, I don't have much of a rebuttal to these as they are solid points, and I appreciate you guys bringing it up because it helps me keep more things in mind to create stronger, more effective DD in the future.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Edit 4: A fellow ape in the comments gave a link to the list of eligible counterparties for RRP agreements:
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
<https://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/rrp_counterparties>
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Most if not all of these counterparties are banks, so it lends credence to the idea that banks would be lending these treasury bonds to hedgefunds, as well as the banks themselves needing bonds as well (since there is a lot of cash but not collateral in the bonds market at the moment)
|
@ -0,0 +1,54 @@
|
|||||||
|
The guaranteed short squeeze trigger: The NFT/Crypto/Digital Dividend
|
||||||
|
=====================================================================
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
| Author | Source |
|
||||||
|
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||||
|
| [u/integ3r_p0sitron](https://www.reddit.com/user/integ3r_p0sitron/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nmd7cr/the_guaranteed_short_squeeze_trigger_the/) |
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
---
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
[Education 👨🏫 | Data 🔢](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22Education%20%F0%9F%91%A8%E2%80%8D%F0%9F%8F%AB%20%7C%20Data%20%F0%9F%94%A2%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Others have pointed this out, but it seems there's still a lack of awareness or realization of how serious this is.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
The crypto dividend is NOT a joke.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
There is one PROVEN way to trigger the short squeeze and it was done by Overstock last year. In 8. march 2020 OSTK traded at around $3 per share. After the crypto dividend was released the stock soared to $120. While the crypto dividend itself, which you received 10 per share soared to over 8 dollars per tZero.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Why it works:
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
When a hedgie shorts a stock, he borrows it through the broker from its real owner and sells it. Because the one who purchases it believes he is also an owner, a single share has 2 owners. When a company then pays a dividend. Both owners expect a dividend, yet the company only pays dividend to one owner because the broker only holds 1 real share. The dividend for the fake share is paid out of the shorters pocket to make the whole system function.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
If gamestop pays a Crypto / NFT / Digital dividend, then in order for the system to continue, the shorter will have to find and acquire this NFT dividend and give it to the guy he borrowed the GME share from. However, this is literally impossible. NFTs are non-fungible. There is simply no way for him to acquire it or something equivalent because only holders of GME will get it. This means the broker will have no choice but to force all the shorts to exit their positions before the Ex. Dividend, triggering the short squeeze.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
TL;DR:
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
All that is necessary to trigger the squeeze, is for the gamestop NFT team to make a meme ape or diamond hands or rocket NFT artwork and hand it out as a property dividend to shareholders. This will automatically trigger the squeeze. So please meme the NFT dividend into reality.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
[](https://preview.redd.it/q67cuc42ep171.png?width=1016&format=png&auto=webp&s=04e6b6031037d7976e242b8a50d129a68f6a2cea)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
EDIT: Thanks for all the awards and attention. It falls to you to to keep the dream alive of the digital dividend. Some common questions I've seen:
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
How will I get the dividend? How will it work?
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
There are many ways to skin a cat here, so the simple answer is don't worry about it until it is actually going to happen. I've seen someone say that for overstock their broker held it until they transferred it to their own account on a tradable exchange (since the broker didn't deal with cryptocurrencies). The logistics aren't complicated. Here is one hypothetical way: You hold the stonk until the ex. dividend date, that means you will receive the dividend. GME issues dividend to stockbrokers who are holding the share on your behalf, this means the broker will have to create cryptowallets to hold the payout (this is not a complicated process, don't worry), it is then the brokers responsibility to make sure you can get it from them and you will need your own wallet (again not complicated). **"***What about gas fees?"* Yes, this is a problem right now but there are ways around it. They could use a layer 2 solution, or they could use a different blockchain, basically if there's a will here there's a way.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
WTF? An NFT can't be a dividend.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Yes it can. Pretty much anything can be a dividend. It is called a property dividend.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Nuance between an NFT dividend and a Crypto dividend
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
If gamestop minted a GME token that is essentially a GMECoin which you use as a currency, then it is fungible as opposed to an NFT which is non-fungible. It will trigger the squeeze but will be less effective each time they pay out such a dividend because once it is in circulation, hedgies can buy it off the market to maintain a short position. If you got an NFT artwork however, you would get a personal artwork with a unique ID that signifies it as the specific artwork you received as a dividend for the stock you held. It cannot really be exchanged for any other and each time the company pays such a dividend it would be unique so a hedgie can't buy one of the older NFT artworks and pay it to you as a dividend to stay in a short position. *"**But these artworks that we receive will all pretty much have the same value so TECHNICALLY they'll be fungible"* This is entirely subjective. Lets say you received a Rare Pepe artwork as an NFT dividend and you could use that rare pepe in a video game, then that rare pepe will be the specific rare pepe that you personally used to beat the game, win a tournament or whatever. That would make it non-fungible in the eyes of some. If you like the NFT that you got, well then it's non-fungible. If you wouldn't trade your NFT for someone elses even though they are mostly the same, well then they're still not fungible. Wouldn't you want the NFT that DFV received as his digital dividend? It can't be any other. Also, each time there's a dividend payment, It can be a different NFT set, which means hedgies will NEVER be able to get them on the market before it is paid out meaning shorts can be squeezed for ever, again and again.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
What happens if the broker refuses to margin call the shorts and refuses to give you the divvy?
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
I would imagine that they could be sued. If you own the share, that entitles you to the divvy.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Can they weasel out of this somehow?
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
The brilliance of the crypto divvy is that it is a checkmate move. There are no tricks they can pull at the DTCC or the OCC or whatever, no accounting games they can pull, no fake shares or NFTs they can pull out of thin air to stay in a short position. When you're checkmated, the game is over. The crypto divvy bypasses ALL of the institutions. If the institutions are the chess pieces protecting the hedgie king, the crypto divvy is the orbital strike on the king directly. The divvy is also genius because it encourages people to hold. You want the divvy right? Well then you gotta hold.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Ok so hedgie has to close before ex. dividend, can't he short the top after the squeeze and manipulate the stock down again?
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Gamestop can simply promise to release another NFT dividend and hedgie will have to buy all the memes all over again. And again, and again until he learns his lesson.
|
@ -0,0 +1,174 @@
|
|||||||
|
Clearing up the Fed Reverse Repos and What it Could Indicate
|
||||||
|
============================================================
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
| Author | Source |
|
||||||
|
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||||
|
| [u/c-digs](https://www.reddit.com/user/c-digs/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nmxmri/clearing_up_the_fed_reverse_repos_and_what_it/) |
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
---
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
[Possible DD 👨🔬](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22Possible%20DD%20%F0%9F%91%A8%E2%80%8D%F0%9F%94%AC%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
EDIT: [u/CalamariAce](https://www.reddit.com/u/CalamariAce/) shared a great video which summarizes a similar conclusion that does a great job of explaining it: <https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AMgUlW7zSzg#t=950>
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
First and foremost, more than ever, before you read the rest of this post:
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
I am not a financial advisor and do not interpret anything written below as financial advice.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
I think that nearly every post on the Fed RRP and the increasing amounts has been interpreting this data incorrectly and understanding why it is happening could be very important in understanding the events in the upcoming days/weeks/months.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
The lightbulb moment happened for me when I read [u/HODLTheLineMyFriend](https://www.reddit.com/user/HODLTheLineMyFriend/) 's post: [Reverse Repo Overnight Lending Chart](https://www.reddit.com/r/DDintoGME/comments/nmcn1e/reverse_repo_overnight_lending_chart_update_for/) post from yesterday.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
User [u/wehadmagnets](https://www.reddit.com/u/wehadmagnets/) posted snippets and a reference to [a Financial Times article](https://www.ft.com/content/cdec7f2e-6129-412c-b118-8906a2a0f92f) that drew my attention.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
I post the TL;DR points of interest below and highlight the key points:
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
- Today's Reverse Repo was the largest ever
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
- "Investors" (more than just banks) are seeking places to park cash, as other 'safe' places are drying up and/or having zero or negative rates
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
- "It is also not over yet." -- analyst at Oxford Economics
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
- Cash reserves ballooning due to "the Fed's purchases of $120bn of Treasuries and agency mortgage-backed securities each month"
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
- Money-market funds are getting swamped with people's cash (<speculation>flight from equities?</speculation>)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
- Fed is trying to avoid negative rates in money market
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
- No one thinks it's over
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
- Fed may have to raise interest rates on RRP or reserve balances in member banks to keep the federal funds rates from going lower (at 0.06 on target of 0.0-0.25)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
This is when it clicked for me and my subsequent discussion with [u/Criand](https://www.reddit.com/u/Criand/) helped clarify why I think the RRPs are increasing.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Understanding assets versus liabilities for a commercial bank
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
A few weeks back, I was watching Gary Gensler's MIT series on Blockchain.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
*(Aside: if you have any interest in currency, economics, finance, technology, or banking, I strongly recommend the series because Gensler breaks down complex topics into a very easy to digest format. The series is highly recommended because it will give you a whole new perspective on currency, fiat currency, the gold standard, etc.****)*
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
In [the second lecture](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5auv_xrvoJk), I remembered he said something that caught my attention:
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
[](https://preview.redd.it/flr1sh3j8v171.png?width=778&format=png&auto=webp&s=e5847fc0983eb936712fab9768967e9378a9b2ff)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
A recommended video if you are at all curious to really understand the gold standard, fiat currency, economics, ledgers, banking, and finance
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
[At 51:42](https://youtu.be/5auv_xrvoJk?t=3102), he starts a discussion about fiat currency and ledgers. Of currency, he states:
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
> It represents central bank liabilities and that's important. It's a liability of a central bank it's not an asset. It's their liability side...There's also a second form of money and that's when you make a deposit in a bank that's a liability of a commercial bank.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
[At 54:22 he says](https://youtu.be/5auv_xrvoJk?t=3262):
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
> But it is a liability on the books and records. so it is a matter of accounting in double-entry bookkeeping.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
The entire discussion starting from 51:42 is fantastic and I strongly urge everyone to take the time to watch it.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
On the other hand, government securities are considered an asset and not a liability. [This article does a great job of breaking it down](https://courses.lumenlearning.com/wm-macroeconomics/chapter/banking-profits-and-losses-name/):
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
> For a bank, the assets are the financial instruments that either the bank is holding (its reserves) or those instruments where other parties owe money to the bank---like loans made by the bank and U.S. government securities, such as U.S. Treasury bonds purchased by the bank.
|
||||||
|
>
|
||||||
|
> When bank customers deposit money into a checking account, savings account, or a certificate of deposit, the bank views these deposits as liabilities. After all, the bank owes these deposits to its customers, and are obligated to return the funds when the customers wish to withdraw their money. In the example shown in Figure 1, the Safe and Secure Bank holds $10 million in deposits.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
[](https://preview.redd.it/eq8mzoenzu171.jpg?width=757&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=1c69c7eca4829a6ec4ab98371ce1b3193e223f82)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Notice the assets on the left include US Government securities and the liabilities on the right represent deposits or customer cash.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
So why would a bank want to purchase Treasuries?
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
This is the fundamental question and the answer is really simple and where the dots finally connected for me: every single night, they are accumulating more and more customer deposits in cash or cash equivalent accounts relative to the assets on their balance sheet and this is throwing their bookkeeping out of whack.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
To make up for this, every single day they need to wipe these liabilities off of their books and to do this, they use the RRPs to exchange them for assets in the form of Treasuries because it's "free" at the moment. The amount they are swapping does not represent the amount of cash deposits they have, but rather the amount needed to balance their liabilities to their assets (and it may not be a 1:1 ratio; may be some other ratio that they need to adhere to).
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
[u/Criand](https://www.reddit.com/u/Criand/) asked a very important question in our discussion:
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Why overnight notes and not longer term?
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Because they need the cash back the next day for operations. If a customer withdraws the cash or uses the cash to enter into another transaction, they need to have it in their ledger.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
So every night, the banks are wiping this liability off of their books by converting them into assets in the form of Treasuries. Then the very next day, they swap it back for cash because they need the cash for normal operations.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Rinse and repeat each day until the cash deposits start to decrease relative to their assets(hold this thought).
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
What does this mean for apes?
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
I'm going to repeat this again: I am not a financial advisor and not a single one of you should construe this as financial advice.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
About three weeks ago, I moved all of my wife's 403b and my kids' 529s into cash. This means I parked the gains in money market accounts *and now it's a liability for my bank*. (Again, I am not implying that any of you should do this, only providing background for how I connected the dots.)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
This is where bullet 5 up above turned the lightbulb on for me: what if there is a huge wave of capital flight from equities into money market accounts? What if this is what is throwing off the ledgers of these banks? What if all of the wealthy and those "in the know" already know what is coming and are converting their assets into liabilities on the ledgers of the banks by moving their accounts to cash in the form of money market accounts?
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
The capital flight from equities has started and this is what we are seeing reflected with the Fed RRP. This could be the clearest signal that there is anticipation of a big downward crash. The reason this continues unabated and grows is because this is all by the books and precisely what this mechanism is designed to do: soak up liability on the books of the commercial banks. It's just that in this case, those liabilities are customer deposits which are accumulating in money market accounts.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
But the market has been green?
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
This is speculation at this point, but I think it's really simple.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Two weeks ago, I finally started to dump the remaining securities I was holding as I converted everything to cash. I only had F, GM, and GE left. Then this week, all three have had absolutely stellar returns(all the more reason you should not take any of this as financial advice because I left thousands in gains on the table by paperhanding F, GM, and GE). What gives? I am guessing that there is a market-wide pump and dump happening right now where banks are basically finding new bagholders before everything dives.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
The preceding two weeks of red in the market had three purposes:
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
1. Banks needed to capture some gains and liquidity
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
2. Create the illusion of a pullback and "value" to find new bagholders
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
3. Driving up the price of equities is also a mechanism for increasing their asset to liability ratio at least temporarily
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
The above is purely speculation and do not manage your portfolio and your life savings based on any of my bullshit speculation; do your own DD and come to your own conclusions. I emphasize again that there are two ways for them to fix their ledgers: swap cash deposits for Treasuries or somehow increase the value of their assets. If it's the latter, we could see the start of another bull run and I could be completely wrong; I literally have no idea.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Is it really that simple?
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Look, I'm a big fan of Occam's Razor. It's really that simple.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
1. Bank customers are converting their investments to cash or the value of the assets they are holding are decreasing relative to the deposits
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
2. Cash deposits are a liability on the books of commercial banks
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
3. Every day, they need to balance their liabilities with their assets
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
4. As the cash builds up, they need a mechanism to convert them to an asset
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
5. But they also need to be able to easily convert it back to cash for normal operations the next day; they need an asset that is highly liquid
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
6. The Fed RRP operation is a free way to do this and balance their books
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
7. Every single one of the counterparties is now carrying an excess of cash because customers are pulling out of equities OR the value of their assets are decreasing (loans and CMBS are both "assets" for a bank)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
I am firmly in the camp that there is nothing nefarious going on with the Fed RRPs; it's really as simple as the banks wiping the liabilities off of their books at night and getting back the cash the next day.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
What one *should* be concerned about and start pondering is *why* they are in a state of having excess deposits *relative to their assets*.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Remember that thought I asked you to hold: the linchpin is that they must balance their assets and liabilities on their ledgers. So this Fed RRP ballooning indicates that there is a severe imbalance which they are correcting with the RRP. Either their cash deposits are surging, their assets (like loans and CMBS) are dropping, or a bit of both is happening.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
What about the previous periods of high activity in 2014-2017?
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
If you look at the charts, this has occurred previously as well. Notably in 2014 - 2017. But I think that this is relatively easy to understand.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
[](https://preview.redd.it/c99f25db4v171.png?width=528&format=png&auto=webp&s=e3673edb823f072a73e8d1adaccfebc83c610d7f)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Yellow and blue text are mine. There is a high volume of customer deposits on the ledgers of the banks entering and exiting the 2016 election cycle. Then we've had a tremendous run in equities since 2017 so banks have had less cash to balance.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
What is unique is that this buildup right now is so massive and does not correspond to typical times when a bank would need to balance their ledger.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
This daily increasing amount means that every single day, more and more of their customers are moving their deposits to cash or their assets are losing value or some mix of both.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
TA;DR analogy to [u/rocketseeker](https://www.reddit.com/u/rocketseeker/)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Let's say you're running drugs and you obviously deal with a lot of cash.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Holding onto all of this cash is a *liability* because it's easy for someone to steal it from you (for example) or what if you get caught by the po-po with all this cash? You need something that's as good as cash without the downsides.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
So ideally, you have some way to change your paper cash (a *liability*) to something that's harder to steal (an *asset*) and less risky if some police officer shakes you down. You need something that has three qualities:
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
1. It should be stable so if you put in $1, you get back $1
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
2. It should be easy to convert it back to cash any time (be highly liquid)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
3. It should have a pretty stable supply
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Property and real estate? Too difficult to flip it back into cash when you need it. Cars? Bitcoin? Gold chains? Same problems and very volatile; convert $1 and you may not get back $1 tomorrow.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
I don't know the right equivalent for a drug lord because there are very few real-world equivalents to government debt like Treasuries, [but maybe you convert it into Tide laundry detergent](https://nymag.com/news/features/tide-detergent-drugs-2013-1/) because 1) it's hard to steal and 2) there's always demand for Tide; you just go to the local laundromats and sell it to them to get cash back, 3) if the police discover your stash of Tide, what are they gonna do 🤣? You've just found a way to convert *a liability* into *an asset.*
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Now whenever you have an abundance of cash, you convert it to Tide. When you need your cash, you sell the Tide and get your cash back.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
That's what's happening with the banks and the Fed. The banks have a lot of customer cash depositsOR their assets have lost value and cannot balance their books. So they exchange their cash for Tide (Treasuries) so that they have less liabilities relative to their assets. And they are doing this every single day with increasing frequency because they are holding onto more customer deposits in cash/cash equivalent OR their assets are losing value relative to the amount of cash deposits they have.
|
@ -0,0 +1,82 @@
|
|||||||
|
Why I am Ecstatic GME is Taking a Dump, and the Possible Correlation with AMC and Crypto
|
||||||
|
========================================================================================
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
| Author | Source |
|
||||||
|
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||||
|
| [u/C2theC](https://www.reddit.com/user/C2theC/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nn370o/why_i_am_ecstatic_gme_is_taking_a_dump_and_the/) |
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
---
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
[Possible DD 👨🔬](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22Possible%20DD%20%F0%9F%91%A8%E2%80%8D%F0%9F%94%AC%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Apes, lend me your ears.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
I am pumped that GME took a fat dive from $268.80 down to below $235.00 as of this post. Why? Because it means we've figured out the *modus operandi* of the shorts, and HFs are fuk.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
TL;DR HODL, because GME is going to the moon. 🚀
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
T+35/T+21 Cycles
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
This is real, and the juiciest part of this post. As I noted in my [Cyclical Patterns in Failure-To-Deliver (FTD) and Short Interest Reporting](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nezp94/cyclical_patterns_in_failuretodeliver_ftd_and/), written upon the DD of those before me, the T+35/T+21 cycles are consistent, empirical, measurable, and now, *predictable*. Read the DD of [I've estimated the current SI% based on the SI Report Cycle and Deep ITM CALL purchases.](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nc1lny/ive_estimated_the_current_si_based_on_the_si/) by [u/Criand](https://www.reddit.com/u/Criand/) for more details.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
In the chart below, we can see that each T+21 cycle (there are around five, which I've noted above the GME chart ), in every twenty-one trading sessions, GME has a regular spike. The mechanics of this are likely to be kicking-the-can-down-the-road for the FTD cycles, and even if there might be doubters about the underlying cause, you cannot doubt the observable data that this happens exactly every twenty-one days on schedule. If the sun rises every twenty-four hours, who cares if the Earth rotates around the Sun or the Sun rotates around the Earth (shout-out to Galileo Galilei who stood up to the shills of his day)---the sun still rises every twenty-four hours.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Additionally, I am tracking possible cycles for dips in the yellow lines below the chart. Though I am not sure if there is a definite pattern yet, it is human nature (actually the nature of every system due to entropy) to do the same thing over and over on a repeating basis, such as the timing of morning/night routines of showering and brushing your teeth, aka personal hygiene.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
The one pattern I have seen is that on each Short Interest Reporting Settlement Date, marked by "SIR," GME takes a dump. *Especially* after a run such as the one this week. If the pattern as depicted by the yellow lines holds true, watch out for another dump on the first day of trading next Tuesday.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
[](https://preview.redd.it/k6g14efb6w171.png?width=2433&format=png&auto=webp&s=a63cec898848e621d7b3325722b59dbe130afd24)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
A cyclical pattern emerges
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
AMC Correlation
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
If you were a HF that was deep in the red shorting GME, consider this strategy:
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
1. Buy OTM AMC calls
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
2. Spend money to keep the GME price down, let AMC rocket, and let retail FOMO set in
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
3. Entice people to paper-hand GME, then sell those AMC calls to them
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
4. Buy OTM GME puts
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
5. Take the cash generated and drive down the GME price
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
6. Sell now-ITM GME puts and pay yourself back
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
By doing the above, you can end up spending very little or breaking even on your capital and achieve:
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
- Pushing down both the price of GME and AMC at no cost to you!
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
- Deflate the morale of GME apes that we missed out on AMC riches
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
- Deflate the morale of AMC ape-cousins that they didn't sell at the peak or bought at the top
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
- Give a story to Main Stream Media (MSM) to report that the MoASS is over, and that AMC is now -30%, from the peak, never mentioning the +120% from last Friday
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
AMC Price Action
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
What drove the price action for AMC this week? This section is all speculative, and there are multiple possibilities, some or all or none of which may be true:
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
1. There is no news, and there are no sellers, so the only driver for the price action are the shorts themselves
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
2. It is not even 2p EST and the volume on AMC is 522M, and the average 20-day volume is 165M. How is a 3× average volume possible on no news, and yesterday was 5×, unless institutions were involved?
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
3. Funds are getting margin called and need to cover or provide more cash
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
4. Shorts would let AMC go in order have ammo to suppress the price for GME, which is far more detrimental to the shorts
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
5. MSM needs a piece to talk about how much AMC came down, to "encourage" GME hodlers to paper-hand and sell, if not now, then build it into the psyche for the MoASS
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Crypto Crash
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
The market is a zero-sum game. Due to the amount of losses in crypto, to the tune billions, it is not possible that it was all retail. Institutional investors were the whales that cashed out. The money had to go somewhere. It is likely a good portion went to the manipulation of GME and AMC, as well as the possible covering of margin calls. At the very least, it is still held as cash. This is why the general market hasn't tanked, because shorts haven't had to sell any of their beloved shares in the S&P 500 to cover for GME/AMC.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Conclusion
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Jacked to the tits!
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
__________
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Edit: *modus operandi* not *operus modi -* thanks [u/Mufragnosky](https://www.reddit.com/u/Mufragnosky/)
|
64
DD/2021-07-02-GameStop-Crypto-Dividend-will-NOT-be-an-NFT.md
Normal file
64
DD/2021-07-02-GameStop-Crypto-Dividend-will-NOT-be-an-NFT.md
Normal file
@ -0,0 +1,64 @@
|
|||||||
|
A GameStop crypto dividend will NOT be an NFT. Misinformation and incorrect terminology is running rampant, let's clear it up.
|
||||||
|
==============================================================================================================================
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
| Author | Source |
|
||||||
|
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||||
|
| [u/GooseG17](https://www.reddit.com/user/GooseG17/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/ocnofw/a_gamestop_crypto_dividend_will_not_be_an_nft/) |
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
---
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
[Education 👨🏫 | Data 🔢](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22Education%20%F0%9F%91%A8%E2%80%8D%F0%9F%8F%AB%20%7C%20Data%20%F0%9F%94%A2%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
I'm sorry for the condescending title. I promise I'm friendly, just stupid af.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Edit: This post assumes at least basic understanding of these technologies. Please read my linked post if you do not have that understanding yet.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
I made a [post](https://old.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/oc7ji4/clarifying_nfts_what_they_are_good_for_and_what/) yesterday explaining blockchain, tokens and NFT's, but there are still posts hitting the front page that refer to "NFT dividends" surprised Pikachu, so let's make this nice and simple.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
1. Overstock was the first to issue a crypto dividend. Their dividend token is *not* an NFT.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
2. Dividends are usually cash or a security. Both are fungible, so a *non-fungible* token may not be considered a valid dividend (IANAL), while Overstock has shown that a *fungible* token will hold up in court.\
|
||||||
|
Edit: Dividends can also be other forms of property, which likely invalidates my thoughts on validity. This point is flawed, but I'll leave it here for my deserved criticisms.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
3. Giving shareholders, who all hold *identical shares* crypto rewards that are *not* identical would be unfair to shareholders. How would it be determined who gets the first token? Or 69, 420 or any other fun number? I think avoiding the issue entirely is the best course of action.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
4. Transactions involving NFT's are *many times* more expensive than standard tokens due to their significantly greater complexity. Using them unnecessarily is wasteful at best, downright stupid at worst.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
5. Using *non-fungible* tokens would mean that they can only be traded in whole increments, which is a limitation that makes no sense for this use case. For example, Overstock issued 0.1 tokens per share, which would not be possible with an NFT.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
6. Trading NFT's isn't as simple as trading a standard token. We're already struggling with blockchain concepts, we don't need added complexity. It makes more sense to use a token that works exactly as you would expect a currency to work.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
7. A fungible dividend could have more functional use, such as being directly usable as currency when shopping at GameStop. Indivisible tokens (NFT's) wouldn't work for this. What if all prices were multiples of $10? A more flexible option is necessary.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
1. Imagine a GameStop cryptocurrency that can be used in an NFT marketplace (in-game items, etc.) or in-store. A dividend issuing that currency could give a massive boost in adoption.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
8. The initial issuing of NFT's is *much* more expensive. I'm talking orders of magnitude. Each individual token will incur a large transaction fee, while a normal token can be one small transaction fee *per shareholder*. Sending three NFT's looks like this:\
|
||||||
|
Send token 1 to x address\
|
||||||
|
Send token 2 to x address\
|
||||||
|
Send token 3 to x address
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
A normal token is always one transaction, no matter how many tokens are sent:\
|
||||||
|
Send 3 tokens to x address
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Making NFT minting more efficient is possible, but is not a native feature at this time. I don't think GameStop will waste money on unnecessary fees.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
* * * * *
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Seeing this sub, which is a bastion of truth in a world of lies, ignite with misinformation on a topic simpler than the complexities of the behind-the-scenes of the financial systems we are used to is a bit surprising. Let's make an effort to gain some wrinkles on blockchain and related topics, since it seems to be a major part of GameStop's plans for the future.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Smooth-brain summary:\
|
||||||
|
There are many use cases for NFT's that GameStop can capitalize on, but I argue that a dividend is not one of them. A crypto dividend would make the most sense as an old-school, fungible token.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Edit: Added mention of securities as dividends. Thanks [u/fubar95](https://www.reddit.com/u/fubar95/)!
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Edit 2: Property dividends were brought to my attention. My statements about legality are probably invalid. Thanks [/u/chickeni3oo](https://www.reddit.com/u/chickeni3oo/)!
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Edit 3: To be perfectly clear, I am arguing that a dividend would not be an NFT, not that there will or will not be a dividend. Dividend talks are entirely speculation, and I am merely trying to clear up misunderstandings on what NFT's are good for.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Edit 4: Expanded point 3
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Edit 5: Added point 7
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Edit 6: Added point 7.1
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Edit 7: Added point 8
|
68
DD/2021-07-04-Is-the-Bubble-Bursting.md
Normal file
68
DD/2021-07-04-Is-the-Bubble-Bursting.md
Normal file
@ -0,0 +1,68 @@
|
|||||||
|
Is the bubble bursting? It's all connected. GME will moon one way or another.
|
||||||
|
=============================================================================
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
| Author | Source |
|
||||||
|
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||||
|
| Saved by [u/chanunnaki](https://www.reddit.com/user/chanunnaki/) | [Reddit](https://web.archive.org/web/20210705034232if_/https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/odsedt/is_the_bubble_bursting_its_all_connected_gme_will/) |
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
---
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
[DD 👨🔬](https://web.archive.org/web/20210705034232/https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22DD%20%F0%9F%91%A8%E2%80%8D%F0%9F%94%AC%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
I am an XXX holder and a QA rep. Numbers are my thing at work and analyzing the numbers on the market do not make sense right now. Please don't kick my ass over this not being charts of GME. I am thoroughly convinced that almost anything market related could lead to a GME squeeze.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
By now, I'm sure everyone has read the house of cards, as well as, the everything short. GameStop is connected to everything as of this point. If we are talking about a 200,300,400 etc. % short interest, then everything leads back to GameStop. (or whatever entities are shorting GameStop) Downvote me if you'd like, but I believe the housing market could be our card to start our show if a dividend is not what first kicks us off.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
*The Curtains are starting to be pulled open*
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Why does this matter? Housing market doesn't affect GME?
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
FuCk YoU iT DoES. No but really, when these banks start losing money on defaults and risky mortgages, you really think they want to further their losses by dealing with some over leveraged funds? No. The house of cards is real, and it isn't if the house is coming down, its WHAT card will bring it down. Lets begin.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
TLDR: Everyone is kicking the can down the road, even the government. I firmly believe we will see an economic collapse or correction of at least 35%. With GMEs negative beta and amount of short positions and naked shorting, should the housing market fall, it will create a ripple effect and the curtains for our show will be opened and it will begin. Inflation, unemployment, housing prices, CPI all rising but wages staying the same. The bubble is running out of room to expand.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
[](https://web.archive.org/web/20210705034232/https://preview.redd.it/eo5b5hxb29971.png?width=971&format=png&auto=webp&s=c85f49314cf5d1c902e0371fdced51f83e44e50c)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Lumber prices currently cut in half from peak.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
People who say lumber prices are fueling the housing inflation crisis are wrong, but, people will still look at this as a negative sentiment and may begin looking for an out. (selling their property)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
[](https://web.archive.org/web/20210705034232/https://preview.redd.it/vglf4o3a39971.png?width=926&format=png&auto=webp&s=410fd94e4d65d16dff7d9b13dcc251a7745a8365)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Mortgage applications rate YOY Refinancing
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
[](https://web.archive.org/web/20210705034232/https://preview.redd.it/dxbdc15m39971.png?width=920&format=png&auto=webp&s=bb04c2a7cb3286f5cbe9c96c5bf81694de110bff)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Mortgage applications rate YOY new purchase
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
What this means simply is everyone who can qualify/afford a home at this point is almost exhausted and new applicants are simply either not able to qualify or can't find a home with this inflated market. Eventually there will not be enough demand to satisfy once forbearance ends and supply hits the market.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Here we take a look at housing prices related to income YOY. This is wrong. We have wages either staying stagnant or dropping and everything else increasing? No get fucked.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
[](https://web.archive.org/web/20210705034232/https://preview.redd.it/4knhc92059971.png?width=916&format=png&auto=webp&s=c830f12787a33f9f729bf6e6198e05342ecf1abd)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Average Home Price YOY
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
[](https://web.archive.org/web/20210705034232/https://preview.redd.it/hjbhosr159971.png?width=855&format=png&auto=webp&s=8e869b0b98f985e63ea02aa4918b252c1c01ff65)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Wage Growth Tracker
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
The media is filling our heads with lies of a housing shortage but that is quite the contrary. People who SHOULD have been foreclosed on or otherwise not able to meet requirements, were not due to the forbearance, thus supply has not gone up. *(Don't get me wrong, we needed this badly with how things went last year, but they should have ended sooner than all of this. If you are someone who needs it and uses it responsibly, you have my blessing)*. I know a lot of people who misused this setting and instead of saving that money they weren't spending, they bought new shit like guns and cars etc. The truth is, supply of houses are about to be high.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
[](https://web.archive.org/web/20210705034232/https://preview.redd.it/r7k9x7h869971.png?width=1258&format=png&auto=webp&s=cde9fc443d6734417050ffc709d29d061c95c237)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
New housing starts
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Here you can see that in fact housing development is at highest rates, or equal to in years. So what happens when all this new housing hits the market, forbearance ends and foreclosures begin? Well a lot of people lose their ass. Primarily the people who bought the top and now owe 400k on a home that's worth 360k. Again, this becomes the banks responsibility should the buyer not be able to weather the storm.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
[](https://web.archive.org/web/20210705034232/https://preview.redd.it/sxyy8x3l79971.png?width=1454&format=png&auto=webp&s=da2e6c2312a86ccd2f76fcc822c08604bf351ceb)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
CPI Chart
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Again we have a CPI Chart that only rises, which wouldn't be a problem, but oh wait, wages are stagnant or decreasing.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Here is one last visual before I go to dinner with my family and watch fireworks.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
[](https://web.archive.org/web/20210705034232/https://preview.redd.it/l9s45qsr89971.png?width=1133&format=png&auto=webp&s=40c882918f915d32c0af437f13001dd281abe9a5)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Delinquencies 30, 60, 90 days late all subject to foreclosure if the buyer cannot keep up.
|
48
DD/2021-07-04-Peek-a-Boo-I-See-You-79M-Hidden-Shorts.md
Normal file
48
DD/2021-07-04-Peek-a-Boo-I-See-You-79M-Hidden-Shorts.md
Normal file
@ -0,0 +1,48 @@
|
|||||||
|
Peek-a-boo! I see you 79M hidden shorts!
|
||||||
|
========================================
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
| Author | Source |
|
||||||
|
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||||
|
| [u/WhatCanIMakeToday](https://www.reddit.com/user/WhatCanIMakeToday/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/odsded/peekaboo_i_see_you_79m_hidden_shorts/) |
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
---
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
[DD 👨🔬](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22DD%20%F0%9F%91%A8%E2%80%8D%F0%9F%94%AC%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
tl;dr: I found around 79M can kicked shares in Jan 2021 using the married put approach. We can see those cans kicked out 1, 2, 3, 6, 12, and 24 months from Jan 2021 at various options expirations.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
After poking around in ToS, I found that I can see exactly when Puts where opened by tracking the daily Open Interest for a put. See my previous post here: <https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/ocen11/historical_gme_71421_options_oi_to_see_how_many/>
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
I needed the data in CSV format so I could play with it. So I bought the GME Options Data (surprisingly cheap, about $21) from <https://www.historicaloptiondata.com/> for 2021 up to end of June.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
I then filtered out the lowest strike Put option for each of the major options expirations (Feb, March, April, Jan 2022 leap, and Jan 2023 leap) during that time and charted the daily Open Interest Change.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
[Daily OI Change for Lowest Strike Puts](https://preview.redd.it/mfk5o6z1r8971.png?width=1097&format=png&auto=webp&s=26b7024d5072bbb0683b9d9c1a3d34e596ddfa4e)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Guess what? Most of these low strike puts were opened around GME's Jan run up!
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
*Wut mean?* Superstonk has been discussing how married puts are used to hide naked shorts in deep OTM puts so this data shows us exactly how far out they kicked those Jan naked short cans down the road AND we can see which expirations have them. We can see pretty much every major options expiration has a ton of new openings in Jan so those cans were kicked 1, 2, 3, 6, 12, and 24 months out (Feb ,March, April, July, Jan 2022, and Jan 2023, respectively).
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
| *Option* | *As of 1/4/2021* | *As of 2/1/2021* |
|
||||||
|
| --- | --- | --- |
|
||||||
|
| Feb $1 Put | 0 | 52,193 |
|
||||||
|
| March | 0 (n/a) | 32,907 |
|
||||||
|
| April $0.50 Put | 510 | 43,892 |
|
||||||
|
| July $0.50 Put | 168 | 71,709 |
|
||||||
|
| Jan 2022 $0.50 Put | 2,441 | 106,082 |
|
||||||
|
| Jan 2023 $2 Put | 105 | 16,585 |
|
||||||
|
| Total | 3,224 | 323,368 |
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
*Do you see what I see?* There's about 320,000 options opened in Jan 2021 to hide naked shorts and kick those cans *just at the cheapest strike!* That's the equivalent of 32,000,000 (32M) shares!
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
*Wut about other low strikes?* I filtered the options data for two snapshots in time: Jan 4, 2021 (before can kicking) and Feb 1, 2021 (after can kicking). Out of those snapshots, I summed the total open interest for all options with a strike price less than or equal to $20. Here's the results:
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
| | 1/4/2021 | 2/1/2021 |
|
||||||
|
| --- | --- | --- |
|
||||||
|
| Total Put OI for all strikes <= $20 | 309,563 | 1,101,826 |
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
The difference there is 792,263 OI. Basically just shy of 800k new put open interest at super low OTM strikes representing over 79M shares kicked down the road in Jan 2021! Half of those are hidden in the lowest strike alone.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Happy July 4th! We're gonna have a blast!
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
EDIT: Wowza! Thanks everyone! I've never had this many upvotes or awards before! You are all amazing! I learned more in the past 6 months about trading and markets from Superstonk than in decades of trading. I'm happy I can give back to the community!
|
@ -0,0 +1,326 @@
|
|||||||
|
Math Black Magic Vol. 1: Why It Is Mathematically Impossible for Hedgies To Unfuk Themselves
|
||||||
|
============================================================================================
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
| Author | Source |
|
||||||
|
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||||
|
| [u/nydus_erdos](https://www.reddit.com/user/nydus_erdos/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nw8281/math_black_magic_vol_1_why_it_is_mathematically/) |
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
---
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
[DD 👨🔬](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22DD%20%F0%9F%91%A8%E2%80%8D%F0%9F%94%AC%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
DISCLAIMER: My first DD. Not financial advice. All credit to the authors of cited works. I am not trying to karma farm or be dramatic by breaking this up into parts. I tried to post it all at once, but the picture limit had other plans.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS:
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Shout out to [u/sososhibby](https://www.reddit.com/u/sososhibby/). One of their comments got me started down this rabbit hole and they were nice enough to give my work a quick check before I posted. They've also posted about this topic as well: [Part 1](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nmaaaa/john_d_finnerty_excerpt_from_hoc_3_explained_pt1/), [Part 2](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nmdbzz/excerpt_from_hoc3_relevant_af_20_finnerty_fer/)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Also, [u/JNWolman](https://www.reddit.com/u/JNWolman/) was all over this topic months ago. IMO, the post didn't get the exposure it was due. Give it a [read](https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/comments/mgmbkf/would_the_real_exit_strategy_please_stand_up/).
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
A. What I Hope to Show
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
In this volume I hope to present work (by brains much more wrinkled than mine) that show beyond a reasonable doubt, something we all already know: that hedgies are indeed mathematically fuk, in that they have naked shorted AT LEAST the same amount of shares outstanding.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
[u/atobitt](https://www.reddit.com/u/atobitt/)'s [H.O.C. III](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nlwqyv/house_of_cards_part_3/) mentions an [academic paper](https://www.sec.gov/comments/s7-08-08/s70808-318.pdf) titled "*Short Selling, Death Spiral Convertibles, and the Profitability of Stock Manipulation*" written March 2005 by John D. Finnerty, a finance professor.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
In the paper, Finnerty lays out a model to examine naked short selling. In particular, he demonstrates that in order to drive a firms price very close to zero, a manipulator MUST naked short AT LEAST the same number of shares as there are shares outstanding, doubling the float.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
B. Market Model Rundown
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
In my opinion, Finnerty's paper is a thing of logical and [mathematical beauty](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mathematical_beauty). As god tier mathematician Paul Erdős would say, "[This one's from The Book](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mathematical_beauty#Beauty_and_philosophy)". Finnerty took a very complex system and expressed it elegantly and simply. As a math ape, it literally brought a tear to my eye when I finally understood it; which took me awhile (just because I like math doesn't make my brain any less smooth). There's no confirmation bias as sweet as mathematical confirmation bias.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
However, I am quite aware of my autistic tendencies and know most people and apes have a...*strained* relationship with math, so I read all 73 pages of the paper so you don't have to! I try to lay out his model as concisely as possible as to who are the participants, how the market behaves and why hedgies r thusly fuk.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
MARKET PARTICIPANTS:
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
*Informed Investor*
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
- Informed investors do short sell, but do not engage in abusive or naked short selling. They locate, borrow and return shares on time.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
- The informed investor has information advantage. They know if the true intrinsic value of the stock is high (*H)* or low *(L)*.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
- This group only shorts stocks that legitimately have low real intrinsic value *(L)*.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
- Assume there is only one informed investor in this model.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
*Manipulator*
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
- The manipulator has the information advantage as well. Through research or by observing the informed investor, they know the true intrinsic value of the stock and seek to manipulate the stock below that value.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
- A manipulator can appear as an informed investor to other participants by copying the selling behavior of the informed investor.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
- Manipulator can be a Market Maker (MM).
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
> Market makers have lower shorting costs since they can sell on a downtick and do not have to commit that they will be able to borrow shares before they sell short. Market makers are granted these exceptions to facilitate their market-making activities. A strategy a manipulator can employ to reduce its cost of shorting is to register as a market maker for the target stock. If naked shorting, there is zero cost. (Pg. 17, footnote 33)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
- There is only one manipulator in this model.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
*Active Traders*
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
- Think of this group as regulation abiding MM's.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
- They can short sell, but do not engage in abusive or naked short selling.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
- Active traders does not have as much information as the manipulator and informed investor. They do not know the true value of the stock.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
- They can interpret market signals and see what the informed investor does, which gives them information advantage over retail investors.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
- They don't know if the informed investor they are watching is actually a manipulator in disguise.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
- They mostly base their moves on what the informed investor (or the disguised manipulator) does and only act after they do.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
- There is more than one active trader.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
*Uninformed Investors*
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
- These are old type retail investors, not apes.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
- Uninformed investors have the ultimate information disadvantage, they have no idea how much the stock is really worth.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
- They always stand ready to buy more shares at lower prices than those currently prevailing, since they don't know the true intrinsic value of the stock.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
- This willingness to buy provides consistent cash flow (liquidity) to short sellers.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
- Uninformed investors demand for shares decreases as the amount they possess increases.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
- Once this group knows the true price of the stock they will sell, providing shares to the shorts to cover.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
- There are many uninformed investors.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
*Insiders and Long Term HODL'ers*
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
- Passive group that does not take an active role in the market. They neither sell nor buy shares.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
- They exist in the model so there are shares for the shorts to borrow and to set the initial market price.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
- Assume they own all outstanding shares.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
TIME BREAKDOWN:
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
The paper has a timeline/progression of how the market behaves. There are four points expressed as time *t*.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
*Time 0*
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
- This is right before anything happens and the model is at the initial conditions.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
- All shares are held by insiders and long term investors who do not plan on selling.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
*Time 1*
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
- This is when the short sale can be initiated by the the informed investor or the manipulator or, depending on the situation, by both of them.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
- Also during this time the active traders are observing the informed investor (or a manipulator posing as one) and current market signals. They do not act during this time.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
*Time 2*
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
- This is when the active trader takes action, they do what they saw the informed investor (or the manipulator posing as one) do.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
- The short sellers from time 1 can short additional shares if they decide to.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
- Market equilibrium forms at this time.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
- The informed investor or the manipulator can sustain a short position until time 3 but it is less expensive to sustain it to time 2 (unless the manipulator naked shorts and/or is a MM).
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
*Time 3*
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
- This is when the stocks true intrinsic value is revealed to all market participants to be *H* or *L*.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
- This represents the long run, and it may be very costly for the informed investor or the manipulator to maintain a short position (unless the manipulator naked shorts and/or is a MM).
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
- If the legitimate shorts have not closed their short position already, this is were they cover.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
- Most of the paper's focus is on what happens at this time.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
MARKET EQUILIBRIUM
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
At time 2, the market enters equilibrium. There are two basic forms of equilibrium: pooling and separating.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
*Pooling*
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
This type of equilibrium is when the manipulator wants to remain undetected so the other market participants mistake him as an informed investor.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
The advantage to this is that the manipulator stands less of a chance of getting caught or squeezed. On top of this, active traders may pile on to short the stock as well when they see blood in the water. This causes the price to drop even lower, helping the manipulator.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
The disadvantage is that the manipulator loses profit to the extra competition and sole control over the price action.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
*Separating*
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
This is when the manipulator doesn't care if they are detected. In some cases, they want to be detected to scare off competition. The advantage is that this strategy maximizes their profit and they have full price control. The disadvantage is they have a greater chance of getting caught or squeezed.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
E. Demand Curves & The Unravelling Problem
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
*General Demand Curve:*
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
This whole model is governed by the uninformed investors demand, since they are the buyers. Their demand is highly dependent on the supply of shares. The uninformed traders willingness to hold *Q* shares at time *t* is summarized by the demand curve (Pg. 15):
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
[](https://preview.redd.it/zhhgr111fc471.png?width=1375&format=png&auto=webp&s=cc034e8ae681bdc7365ce2ab1851e18fca94cbed)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
General Demand Curve
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
- The function *D(Q)* represents the uninformed investors demand which is equal to the price at time *t* represented by *P(t)*.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
- *H* and *L* are the potential true values of the stock revealed to active traders and uninformed investors at time 3.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
- *A* is a constant representing the current market price.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
- *B* is a constant representing the price at which uninformed investors buy, which is lower than the prevailing price.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
- Note that at time zero, all shares are in the hands of long term investors so *P(0) = A*.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
*The Unravelling Problem:*
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
If the manipulator is not naked short selling, then they would have to cover at time 2, or at time 3 when the true price is revealed to everyone. This presents what the paper refers to as the unravelling problem.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
This is the issue shorts face when covering their positions. Since retail knows the real price at time 3 their demand curve shifts. Buying to cover at the real price causes the price to increase. Both factors cut into profits.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
*Problem When True Price = H*
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
If true price is revealed to be *H* at time 3 then the demand curve shifts to:
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
[](https://preview.redd.it/3rhkhwi6fc471.png?width=1406&format=png&auto=webp&s=9d6e0631707e552c444a5d8206535f54bad1b4ca)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
High Value Demand Curve
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
This is the worst case scenario for hedgies. Not only did they not suppress the price to *L* they now have to buy to cover. The number of shares retail holds *Q* goes to zero since hedgies have to buy them back, which will push the price to *H* cutting into their tendies.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
*Problem When True Price = L*
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
If true price is revealed to be *L*, at time 3 then the demand curve shifts to:
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
[](https://preview.redd.it/45sv7u0afc471.png?width=1408&format=png&auto=webp&s=7bcc138e8344e98deab491f8f2b7d77275693377)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Low Value Demand Curve
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Not as bad as the previous case, but even covering at *L* will push price a little bit higher and cut into the hedgies' tendies.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
F. Naked Short Selling
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Naked short selling removes the unravelling problem at no cost to the manipulator and it's quite literally free money:
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
> Naked short selling and manipulating the price downward provide cash returns to the manipulator, who can withdraw cash from his clearing firm account as the shorted shares are marked to market at progressively lower prices. Through naked shorting, the manipulator realizes these returns without investing any cash (provided the market price never rises above the sale price). (Pg. 34, par. 1)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
> The clearing firm retains the cash proceeds from the short sale to secure the selling broker's delivery obligation. The clearing firm releases cash equal to the reduction in value of the shorted shares as the price of the shares declines (or demands additional cash margin if the share price rises). (Pg. 34, footnote 51)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Here are some familiar signs of naked short selling:
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
> The daily trading volume could be quite high if the manipulator is rapidly turning over its short position, but the daily trading and settlement activity may appear to be normal market making because the dealer's net position on the day does not change. (Pg. 44, footnote 64)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
> Pumping the trading volume also reduces the short interest ratio (short interest divided by the average daily trading volume) to help conceal the manipulation. (Pg. 44, footnote 64)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Remember naked shorting creates phantom shares which increases the float.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
*True Shares Outstanding:*
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Based on the original demand curve we can calculate the total shares outstanding at time 0. Since this is during the initial conditions, this is the true value of shares outstanding.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
So, since uninformed investors are always willing to buy at a lower price and, hypothetically, if the long term investors decided to sell all outstanding shares *Q* to uninformed traders then price would fall to *L*:
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
[](https://preview.redd.it/2lucrstdfc471.png?width=1302&format=png&auto=webp&s=77adeb75401431094301b216caabcb71f4db680c)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
True Shares Outstanding
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
*Naked Short Selling in Pooling Equilibrium: Driving Price Close to Zero*
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
When True Price = *H*
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Using the previous equations we can find the amount of shares necessary to drive the final price at time 3 close to zero:
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
[](https://preview.redd.it/qei47fuifc471.png?width=1284&format=png&auto=webp&s=65ea8f2f04eff9babd339b7c22a3a8f9c655fb7a)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Shares Needed to Drive Price Close To Zero
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
When True Price = *L*
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
[](https://preview.redd.it/pedh454ofc471.png?width=1279&format=png&auto=webp&s=fe342a1d0872e3baa28292cd39d15d3cef259de6)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Shares Needed to Drive Price Close to Zero
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
It is also worth noting,
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
> The manipulators profit depends on his ability to manipulate the firm's stock price and keep it depressed. The stronger the financial condition of the firm at time 3 (the higher *L* is), the greater the number of shares the manipulator has to sell short at time 3 to drive the price close to zero. (Pg. 45, par. 2)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
*More Shorted Shares than Outstanding:*
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
We have the true shares outstanding, we know the amount of shares needed to short an *H* valued company to zero, and the amount of shares needed to short a *L* valued company to zero:
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
[](https://preview.redd.it/twctyrcsfc471.png?width=1274&format=png&auto=webp&s=cd8be3285e939cac464dee89025027c780c3eb0b)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Share Counts
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
When Value Is *H*
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
> Building a short position of *H/B* to drive *P(3)* to zero would involve naked shorting more shares than the firm has outstanding because *H/B > (A-L)/B*. (Pg. 45, par. 1)
|
||||||
|
>
|
||||||
|
> The manipulator can not drive the share price close to zero unless he can naked short an extraordinary number of shares. (Pg. 45, par. 1)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
So to drive the *H* company to zero hedgies have to naked short *Q_H* shares. But remember our general equations governing the demand curve:
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
[](https://preview.redd.it/2pv8j1uxfc471.png?width=1362&format=png&auto=webp&s=b1f6323b28f83ff44706c06252eb8ef1decc802d)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Hedgies r fuk: High Value Edition
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Proving that if hedgies want to short a company with a high intrinsic value to zero they must naked short more shares than are outstanding.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
When Value is *L*
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
> Even if the manipulator's short position is *L/B*, it might still exceed the entire number of shares the firm has outstanding.
|
||||||
|
>
|
||||||
|
> The manipulators profit depends on his ability to manipulate the firm's stock price and keep it depressed. The stronger the financial condition of the firm at time 3 (the higher *L* is), the greater the number of shares the manipulator has to sell short at time 3 to drive the price close to zero. (Pg. 45, par. 2)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
If the final price (*L*) at time three (*P(3)*) is equal to the price at time 2 (i.e. if *L=P(3)=P(2)*) then the manipulator will naked short the same number of shares that the firm has outstanding. This next equation should look familiar:
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
[](https://preview.redd.it/vfihc052gc471.png?width=1338&format=png&auto=webp&s=73f9ccd94ca522bfc4f57d548aa1fc0e3b51c2e5)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Hedgies r fuk: Low Value Edition
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
So then if *L>P(2)* then the manipulator will naked short more shares than firm has outstanding. By naked shorting the same number of shares that are outstanding, the manipulator has doubled the float. (Pg. 55, footnote 77)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Which makes sense: If the price is higher turns out to be higher than they expected then they have to drive price down even more. Naked shorting is effective because it dilutes the float.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
What About Incremental Shorting?
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Almost forgot this case, so I'll have to put it here at the end. I'm not gonna go too much into the math cause it just adds another layer of unneeded complexity.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Basically you just need to know this, Finnerty proves that unless the manipulator is naked shorting and/or is a MM, it is not profitable to incrementally short sell (i.e. shorting a little, then covering a little, repeat).
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
> In a market equilibrium in which the informed investor sells the profit-maximizing number of shares, I show later in the paper that incremental short sales by the manipulator will not be profitable. (Pg. 16, footnote 29)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
This shows how huge of a win the rule changes were. Had apes not gotten them, Shitadel would have continued to abuse their MM privileges and not had to worry about margin call. Now, they can't naked short as freely and its actually costing them to maintain short positions, and its only going to get worse.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
In the next volume, I'll explore :
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
1. The Majestic Ape Demand Curve
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
2. How apes fucked up the hedgies' algorithm
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
3. Why short attacks are getting weaker
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
4. Exponential & Log Chats
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
5. Why it is Impossible to Short Ape Curve Close to Zero
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
TL:DR -> Finance professor (not me) mathematically proves that it's impossible to short a stock to zero without naked shorting at least as many shares as there are outstanding, doubling the float in the process.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Hedgies r fuk.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
BUY, HODL, VOTE
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
TA:DR -> Naked 🩳 + (🐒x🦍) + 🚀√🌕 =
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
(Hedgies r fuk) 2 + 🍗🍗🍗
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
This post brought to you on behalf of Margery Nesbitt.
|
@ -0,0 +1,208 @@
|
|||||||
|
Math Black Magic Vol 2: The Limit Does not Exist!
|
||||||
|
=================================================
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
| Author | Source |
|
||||||
|
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||||
|
| [u/nydus_erdos](https://www.reddit.com/user/nydus_erdos/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nwy0oz/math_black_magic_vol_2_the_limit_does_not_exist/) |
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
---
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
[DD 👨🔬](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22DD%20%F0%9F%91%A8%E2%80%8D%F0%9F%94%AC%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
DISCLAIMER: Second part of my first DD. Not financial advice. All credit to the authors of cited works. I am not trying to karma farm or be dramatic by breaking this up into parts. I tried to post it all at once, but the picture limit had other plans.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS:
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Shout out to [u/sososhibby](https://www.reddit.com/u/sososhibby/). One of their [comment](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nm3mtr/relevant_af/) got me started down this rabbit hole and they were nice enough to give my work a quick check before I posted. They've also posted about this topic as well: [Part 1](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nmaaaa/john_d_finnerty_excerpt_from_hoc_3_explained_pt1/), [Part 2](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nmdbzz/excerpt_from_hoc3_relevant_af_20_finnerty_fer/)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
[u/JNWolman](https://www.reddit.com/u/JNWolman/) was all over this topic months ago. IMO, the post didn't get the exposure it was due. Give it a [read](https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/comments/mgmbkf/would_the_real_exit_strategy_please_stand_up/).
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
I'll also be using [charts](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nwwy5x/0610_update_broke_the_logfloor_by_1_5_in_linear/) from [u/JTH1](https://www.reddit.com/u/JTH1/), aka "exponential floor guy".
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
A. Topics Explored
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
In [Vol. 1](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nw8281/math_black_magic_vol_1_why_it_is_mathematically/), I laid out [Finnerty's paper](https://www.sec.gov/comments/s7-08-08/s70808-318.pdf) which mathematically proves that to drive a firms price very close to zero, a manipulator MUST naked short AT LEAST the same number of shares as there are shares outstanding, effectively doubling the float.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
This write up is more of my examination of the implications of Finnerty's paper and how it applies to GME. This is not meant to be proof, more of this smooth brain's musings. Feedback and constructive criticism are welcome. In this volume I'll examine:
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
- What I think the hedgies' algorithm and how apes fucked up said algo.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
- I should note, that I believe the algos covered here have been modified since, but the damage has been done.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
- Why short attacks are getting weaker.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
- The negative volume that pops up every so often.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
- Why it is Impossible to Short Ape Curve Close to Zero.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
PROTIP: This volume is a bit more math heavy than the last, but don't let that intimidate you!
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Don't focus too much on the letters, as long as you know who is doing what at each time and what greater than (>) , less than (<) and equal (=) means you'll be good. I'll try to clarify anything that gets too intense.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
B. Naked Short Selling: Separating Equilibrium
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
In separating equilibrium, the manipulator scares away the other participants with unconcealed, aggressive naked shorting. This maximizes profits by eliminating competition. Since the manipulator has price control it doesn't matter whether the time 3 price should be *H* or *L*.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
The lack of competition also makes this strategy a bit more formulaic than the previous examples. The manipulator maximizes his short sale proceeds by naked shorting at time 1 (Pg. 48 par. 1, Pg. 54-55, par. 1):
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
[](https://preview.redd.it/n42c0ax4ag471.png?width=1058&format=png&auto=webp&s=042be52553c72a8b726c3cfe08aa169145c5b35e)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Price at Time 1
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
[](https://preview.redd.it/53iy2wm8ag471.png?width=1074&format=png&auto=webp&s=0c529a4731e2fe5e73009d21f13f45017923a87d)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Price at Time 2
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
[](https://preview.redd.it/hku7v10hag471.png?width=1116&format=png&auto=webp&s=cb29b1b65823c35eebd53733bdc417e1d330930c)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Price at Time 3
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Note the rate of change:
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
> This has occurred with a huge volume of naked shorting and a precipitous decrease in share price that first cut the price in half and then reduced it close to zero. (Pg. 46, par. 2)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
I found that statement slightly unclear as the price is reduced by a third then halved. At most it could be an editing mistake, but more than likely it is my smooth brain. Wrinkle brain help is appreciated.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
C. Inverted Demand Curve
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
First, lets put the original general demand curve into slope intercept (i.e. make it easier to graph as a line):
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
[](https://preview.redd.it/99u0fkwpbg471.png?width=1079&format=png&auto=webp&s=16e5c56e020759b1add8ca735ed16bf23d230d1b)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Slope Intercept Demand Function
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
This is a line with a downwards slope of *-B*. Recall that in Finnerty's model, *B* is the price that retail buys, which is always lower than the prevailing price. That means that as retail acquires more and more shares, the price/demand will decrease.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
[](https://preview.redd.it/26cayz89cg471.png?width=1052&format=png&auto=webp&s=070d5441380426260557d52bcd1db5fcdd3479e6)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Demand Curve Comparison
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
With apes, however, it works the opposite way. Yes, apes buy at any prices, but what I think fucked up the algorithm is apes buy at higher and higher prices because ape and FOMO. In this case, demand and price increase as supply increases. Meaning that if apes got all the shares, the price would rise to *H* This changes the slope of the demand curve positive:
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
[](https://preview.redd.it/mefhrczrcg471.png?width=1280&format=png&auto=webp&s=7ba9489b6191491937bd9e755e43b562fc731947)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Ape Demand Function
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
What I gathered from this is most of the hedgies' problem results from a simple change in sign. I take this a bit further and apply it to the exponential and log curves later on. I figure that the inverse of these functions is what fucked up what the algorithm originally intended.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
*Exponential & Logarithmic Graphs*
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
The following list has the floors calculated by [u/JTH1](https://redditpreview.com/u/JTH1) (aka "exponential floor guy") and the inverted version of the curve I hypothesize the hedgies originally had planned:
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
[](https://preview.redd.it/a86fowc6eg471.png?width=1291&format=png&auto=webp&s=ddee910bdcee8a375241290b7608a740ad57736d)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Ape & Hedgie Curves
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Based on this inverse hypothesis, I think this is the ideal curve hedgies wanted:
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
[](https://preview.redd.it/ys4mcl3mgh471.png?width=983&format=png&auto=webp&s=95a47f214cc84052888c2cf2182d910e3df536ed)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Hedgie Curves
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
If you want to see the current curve, check out exponential floor guy's posts (the most recent at the time of this writing is linked at the very top of the post).
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
D. Pareto Principle & Rate of Change
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
(This section is based heavily on a comment by sososhibby. This section makes a lot more sense if you read it. Its linked at the top.)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
*Hedgie Case*
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
I thought it was interesting that the author stressed throughout the paper, that price is reduced CLOSE to zero and not zero.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Remember, in separated equilibrium naked shorting drops the price by a third, then halves it before it quickly drops close to zero.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
That sounded like asymptotic behavior (asymptote = the thing the curve has to approach for the limit to exist, remember *Mean Girls?*), so I was curious to see the progression to zero so I kept it going and halved *P(2)* again and repeated the process with my result. I assume this is happening quickly between time 2 and time 3:
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
[](https://preview.redd.it/2o17ngi8lh471.png?width=973&format=png&auto=webp&s=1f44aafd13eb3f81ccb7f1f4db0214a41d84edd0)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
[](https://preview.redd.it/ero04mjalh471.png?width=910&format=png&auto=webp&s=9aa8b4836a4a7b880224998176146a060b2a65e3)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Price Progression to Close to Zero
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
I'd take it further but you get the picture. So I took the points made a scatter plot. Didn't look like much. I got curious and wanted to see if I could fit the negative exponential curve. I had to use some scaling factors, but always try to base them as a proportion of 1.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
[](https://preview.redd.it/ekvd81pmlh471.png?width=876&format=png&auto=webp&s=8c1448d0d623d47ca188bbf95a5e38596b682d2a)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
[](https://preview.redd.it/4ell2arrlh471.png?width=834&format=png&auto=webp&s=7e10e0d89e6c936605b574fe7bfe56cc738fbbd7)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Hedgie Curve
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Didn't look like much either, but the fact that it had asymptotic behavior at 0.2 or 20 percent. I figured it might be worth mentioning. Maybe somebody else can take it further.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
*Ape Case*
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Remember, in the normal case of naked shorting in separating equilibrium the price is dropped by a third, then halved, then taken close to zero.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
In the ape case, the price increases. This is where the exponential/power function may come into play. I tried to find the rate of change by re-computing values using equations from earlier:
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
[](https://preview.redd.it/wpa0e8femh471.png?width=1056&format=png&auto=webp&s=ffb70662e8d057f9ecefcdca7b73ba7c913a845c)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
[](https://preview.redd.it/c7cnltihmh471.png?width=975&format=png&auto=webp&s=fcfce22cebd58f6b95457afe6dafca3b775a1a38)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Ape Case
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
As with the last set of values, I wanted to examine the behavior of the ape curve to find a rate of change. It looks like the price increases by a third, then by 1.25 or 25 percent.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
[](https://preview.redd.it/pekkb7kvmh471.png?width=910&format=png&auto=webp&s=679c9df194127816f03002feb58a8159c88a012a)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
To the Moon!
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
I did the same process of scatter and fitting curve this time with the exponential:
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
[](https://preview.redd.it/m9sioly1nh471.png?width=903&format=png&auto=webp&s=18f5889fcf4610d3c84b4de88f05dc9d1cc370de)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Ape Curve
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Also, not sure if there's anything here, but the number 0.8 or 80 percent stood out to me. Need more wrinkled feedback.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
E. Impossible to Short to Zero
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
I can use the same process as earlier to find the amount of shares needed to short the ape curve close to zero:
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
[](https://preview.redd.it/58fozggdnh471.png?width=989&format=png&auto=webp&s=69af8afc934a8c1bd51b42578ddf226dbc6acf52)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Shares Needed to Zero
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
These expressions violate our curve rules from earlier. All elements cannot be negative.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
[](https://preview.redd.it/1ctkekv0oh471.png?width=938&format=png&auto=webp&s=9c66d9b4480d5a16c79b715e709d08516d654862)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Da Rules
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
This seems to imply that if apes continue to BUY & HODL the price cannot go to zero. It is mathematically impossible.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
*Negative Volume*
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
This is a connection I just made today, so I'll have to shoehorn it in here.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
For the last several months, negative volume will show up in the data feeds for various apes. [This](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nwta9j/what_is_this_fuckery_can_anyone_explain_a/) is the most recent incident.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Now Dave Lauer did say that those were most likely end of the day rebalancing and whatnot, so I'm not suggesting anything tin foil-y.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
My hypothesis is simply that the negative candle is the manifestation of the algo doing something based on these curves. I don't know the algo is doing and I don't know if it is nefarious or not. I def need wrinkle brain feedback here.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
F. The Final Volume
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
The final volume will be the shortest, but the juiciest. Based on what we've discussed, there may be a way to calculate how many shorted shares there are and find out the true short interest.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
TL:DR -> At this point, the number of shares needed to short $GME to zero does not mathematically exist.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
TA:DR -> $GME only go up! Math say so!
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
This post brought to you on behalf of Margery Nesbitt. Help her find Kenny, he isn't taking her calls for some reason...
|
@ -0,0 +1,124 @@
|
|||||||
|
Math Black Magic Vol. 3: Trillion Short Share Seance
|
||||||
|
====================================================
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
| Author | Source |
|
||||||
|
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||||
|
| [u/nydus_erdos](https://www.reddit.com/user/nydus_erdos/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nya5ps/math_black_magic_vol_3_trillion_short_share_seance/) |
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
---
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
[DD 👨🔬](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22DD%20%F0%9F%91%A8%E2%80%8D%F0%9F%94%AC%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
DISCLAIMER: Third part of my first DD. Not financial advice. All credit to the authors of referenced works.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS:
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
I'll also be using equations from [u/JTH1](https://www.reddit.com/u/JTH1/)'s (aka "exponential floor guy") works.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
A. Quick Review
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
In [Volume 1](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nw8281/math_black_magic_vol_1_why_it_is_mathematically/), I break down an academic finance paper by John Finnerty. In it, he mathematically proves that it's impossible to short a stock to zero without naked shorting AT LEAST as many shares as there are outstanding, doubling the float in the process.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
In [Volume 2](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nwy0oz/math_black_magic_vol_2_the_limit_does_not_exist/), I lay out how I think apes fucked up hedgies' algos initially, make conjecture on rates of change in our exponential graphs and show (through Finnerty's theories) that, at this point, the number of shares needed to short $GME to zero does not mathematically exist.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
B. Goal of This Volume
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
So far we an equations that relate *P(t) to Q*
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
[](https://preview.redd.it/sbv13sumfu471.png?width=648&format=png&auto=webp&s=63e2d69f476bb6add74ff9a5081c3e681283356f)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Demand Curves
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
And equations that relate *P(t)* to *t*
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
[](https://preview.redd.it/j2vdkh7cgu471.png?width=521&format=png&auto=webp&s=f27f8d220bb288937c388e6d32e89f861d82401b)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Thanks to Exponential Floor Guy
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
My goal is to find an equation that can relate Q and t. That equation can possibly be used to find the real short interest.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
C. Hedgies' Curves
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
*Case 1*
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
The hedgies' curves are the second equation in each list. First, I tried setting them equal to each other:
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
[](https://preview.redd.it/8xr7dbtuiu471.png?width=1289&format=png&auto=webp&s=7ae5032792440214363242a29e88f9d59d687833)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
No new information here
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
But, this doesn't really help me cause of I don't know *B*, so ~~I tried a little calculus~~ ~~did a little simple calculus~~ I had a math séance. Cover your eyes and skip to the next section if math horrifies you. I will begin the ritual with the traditional chant *ahem*
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
[](https://preview.redd.it/76u4fk2aku471.png?width=1048&format=png&auto=webp&s=207ca8ca3213db1948f54ce3883639064350a637)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Yu Mo Gui Gwai Fai Di Zao, Yu Mo Gui Gwai Fai Di Zao, Yu Mo Gui Gwai Fai Di Zao...
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
EDIT: I made a mistake in notation, the derivative of the linear equation should be taken with respect to Q (d/dQ). This will not change the answer as P(t) = D(Q)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Now that we've completed the ritual and the dark gods have gifted us an equation lets plot that bad boy and find the amount of shares:
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
[](https://preview.redd.it/co6mjaatlu471.png?width=952&format=png&auto=webp&s=1ef2e94f1ab30e25e3c5e1366ee1033573f589d2)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
[](https://preview.redd.it/kiy1tob5nu471.png?width=974&format=png&auto=webp&s=fe08f2b2eebc2644acc7fd9d3868624224bdb58b)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
1.4 TRILLION SHARES
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
*Case 2*
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
For such a huge number, I figured I should try the calculation again with a value of 40 dollars and see what I got:
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
[](https://preview.redd.it/b5bnuvhcou471.png?width=852&format=png&auto=webp&s=12a2acbd89881b3770b72f34efb9f842816bb6e7)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
[](https://preview.redd.it/1sqnpp1gou471.png?width=934&format=png&auto=webp&s=f4d7b7039e64470915de0b656377fc3055f4a75d)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
[](https://preview.redd.it/9wyb54dmou471.png?width=973&format=png&auto=webp&s=8c8b8016ce118d76979b89215db3a0ebb8fafe66)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
116 BILLION SHARES
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
D. Ape's Curves
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
I will now perform part two of the math séance, by repeating the process above for the ape curve:
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
[](https://preview.redd.it/ukba2075pu471.png?width=1007&format=png&auto=webp&s=d0f81c578fb481cab287a3fb4846cf9326f6062c)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
[](https://preview.redd.it/fitnd4a8pu471.png?width=1036&format=png&auto=webp&s=47b616777fedf483dc2004b9108e6457b32e1cfc)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
I Implore the Spirit of Isaac Newton, Aid Me In My Dark Deed...
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Now this is what things get VERY interesting, check out that asymptote:
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
[](https://preview.redd.it/xdb6gd56qu471.png?width=871&format=png&auto=webp&s=6f34aa774b64c4ddbf0bc0b3161142ef0fe9ed36)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
[](https://preview.redd.it/59673f2aqu471.png?width=1025&format=png&auto=webp&s=af9d1952760e62ad7324eb3ac0551141188dc258)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
837 MILLION SHARES
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
I'm not sure what the asymptote implies or represents, but I feel that its significant.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
E. Conclusion
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Thanks for coming to my APE Talk. Constructive criticism is always welcome!
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
TL:DR -> Hedgies have naked shorted, at most, about 1.4 trillion shares and, at least, about 837 million shares.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
TA:DR -> Hedgies have pissed off math gods. Hedgies r fuk.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
F. Questions I Could Use Help With
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
- What does that asymptote represent? Is this when it no longer becomes possible for hedgies to dilute the float meaningfully? Is this the stalemate that occurs when the shares are being bought at higher rate?
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
- Have I calculated how many shares have been naked shorted or how many shares retail holds? The way Finnerty frames it, I believe the shares I calculate are the amount of shares naked shorted. However, the demand curve equation says it describes how many shares retail investors hold. I think it can describe both, but I'm sure what context the results of my calculations are in.
|
@ -0,0 +1,68 @@
|
|||||||
|
Math Black Magic, Final Vol: Epilogue
|
||||||
|
=====================================
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
| Author | Source |
|
||||||
|
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||||
|
| [u/nydus_erdos](https://www.reddit.com/user/nydus_erdos/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/odrnbv/math_black_magic_final_vol_epilogue/) |
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
---
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
[DD 👨🔬](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22DD%20%F0%9F%91%A8%E2%80%8D%F0%9F%94%AC%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Not financial advice. All credit to the authors of cited works
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
THE PREVIOUS VOLUMES ARE ESSENTIAL TO UNDERSTANDING THIS POST: [Vol. 1](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nw8281/math_black_magic_vol_1_why_it_is_mathematically/), [Vol. 2](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nwy0oz/math_black_magic_vol_2_the_limit_does_not_exist/), [Vol. 3](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nya5ps/math_black_magic_vol_3_trillion_short_share_seance/)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
1\. Quick Recap
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
In 2005, finance professor John Finnerty published a paper entitled: [Short Selling, Death Spiral Convertibles and the Profitability of Stock Manipulation](https://www.sec.gov/comments/s7-08-08/s70808-318.pdf). Using math and game theory he presents a model depicting a manipulated market. I covered the paper extensively in Vol. 1 and applied some of the concepts in Vol. 2 and 3 to try to estimate the total number of shares shorted. I stand by my methods, but they needed refinement. I reworked some things and I feel much more confident about my results here.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
2\. Method
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
My methods are pretty much the same as last time, so this post will be relatively short and not so many graphs or derivations. There are nuances, but I'm saving most of them for the next series since they require a lot of background knowledge. If there's something that seems like I didn't explain fully, it'll be covered extensively later.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Using the pattern laid out earlier, I analyzed the largest drops I could find before the Sneeze, during the Sneeze, and after. I used Finnerty's formulas to calculate quantity of shares shorted and combined them with price data. Using data processing software, I ran several scenarios, based on Finnerty's model and choose the lowest reasonable answer based on past behavior and revealed data. Using all this I found cumulative SI.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
I did not have an explicit control, however now that we have some idea of the real short interest stated in the recent Robinhood document, I used that data to calibrate the model. I also used an example referenced in the paper regarding a company called Charter Communications:
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
> "The NASD reported that Charter had short interest of 88,520,000 shares inJanuary 2005, but Charter reported having a float of only 36,600,000 shares."Pg. 45, footnote 66
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
That's about 2.4 times the float. I tried to find more info about Charter, but it seems like its hard to get any info about stocks pre-2010. Anyway, it gave me some reference point of what a highly shorted stock (at that point) looked like.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
This model only goes from 10/30/15 to 4/12/2021. Past there I couldn't find any meaningful large drops. Since this model is still general, complexity is the enemy at this point. Future projects involve refining the model with more complexity in mind. Until then, I wouldn't feel confident in any answer I got from a smaller drop.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
3\. Refined Results
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
As of 4/12/2021:
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
- Shitadel and Co. had cumulatively shorted approximately 3 billion shares
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
- The short interest was about 4,302 percent. That's 43 times shares outstanding.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
- At current average daily volume (~7.6 million) that's 400 days to cover, which amounts to 1.6 trading years.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
4\. What's Next
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
My next series will be titled *The Chronicles of Short and Shorter*. In order to write it I had to gain a deeper understanding of the concepts we've used. This led me to the most intense knowledge binge of my adult life: microeconomics. Holy fuck. What a blessed rabbit hole. This is the subject that's pretty much the basis for everything Finnerty wrote. As I am a veryyy autistic ape, it never occurred to me to try to find what the field was called. It allowed to me to take some of Finnerty's concepts further and answer some more questions. So, over the next series we'll:
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
- Go over some economic concepts
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
- Dissect Shitadel and Co.'s strategy and patterns of attack in the pre-Sneeze period, during the Sneeze and post-Sneeze period.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
- Estimate Shitadel and Co.'s cost function
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
- Give my idea on what exponential floor guy's findings might be caused by
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
TL;DR ==> See section 3.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
TA;DR ==> Math gods are still pissed at hedgies. Hedgies r still fuk.
|
@ -0,0 +1,57 @@
|
|||||||
|
Actual insitutional ownership numbers from 2021-03-31 13Fs in order to dispel some false information
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
====================================================================================================
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
| Author | Source |
|
||||||
|
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||||
|
| [u/Yowski](https://www.reddit.com/user/Yowski/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/user/Yowski/) |
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
---
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
[Education 👨🏫 | Data 🔢](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22Education%20%F0%9F%91%A8%E2%80%8D%F0%9F%8F%AB%20%7C%20Data%20%F0%9F%94%A2%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
This post currently has 2800 upvotes and counting, but it's mostly false information/numbers <https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/oceujq/sorry_if_this_has_already_been_posted_finra_is/>
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
EDIT: The original poster I linked saw my post and deleted his.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
So I thought I'd go through the actual 13F forms filed with the SEC to confirm the real numbers as of march 31st. Not trying to unjack tits, but false information is false information. And i'm 99% certain that these correct numbers have been shared previously on this sub sometime in may or june.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
This isn't even all of the institutional ownership, there are a lot more smaller holders in the low 100,000s or sub 100k range. And those definitely add up. As well, there are (or was, before russel rebalancing) over 12 million shares in mutual funds as of march 31st. These numbers should start being updated via 13Fs in august from June quarter end.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Regardless of the false data and actual numbers below, it's quite clear that retail investors world wide own much more than the available float.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
<https://preview.redd.it/l7fp2fijwu871.png?width=1859&format=png&auto=webp&s=445a9358f1f92c114e619ea54ccc4ea33662bc63>
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Blackrock 13F data: <https://sec.report/Document/0001086364-21-000038/form13fInfoTable.html>
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
FMR LLC 13F data: <https://sec.report/Document/0000315066-21-001551/20210517_FMRLLC.html>
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
vanguard 13F data: <https://sec.report/Document/0001104659-21-066511/>
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
dimensional 13F data: <https://sec.report/Document/0000354204-21-000701/13F_Q1_Final.html>
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
state street 13F data: <https://sec.report/Document/0000093751-21-000556/InfoTable_100_v1.html>
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
charles schwab investment management 13F data: <https://sec.report/Document/0001085146-21-001720/>
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
geode capital 13F data: <https://sec.report/Document/0001214717-21-000010/GCMLLCQ1202113F.html>
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
northern trust 13F data: <https://sec.report/Document/0001256484-21-000018/ntc-13f-comb-2021-03.html>
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Jane street 13F data: <https://sec.report/Document/0001595888-21-000015/13F-InfoTable.20210517.html>
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
invesco 13F data: <https://sec.report/Document/0000914208-21-000429/form13fInfoTable.html>
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
morgan stanley 13F data: <https://sec.report/Document/0000895421-21-000363/>
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
ameriprise 13F data: <https://sec.report/Document/0000950123-21-006837/0000950123-21-006837-4273.html>
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
nuveen 13F data: <https://sec.report/Document/0000950123-21-006875/0000950123-21-006875-4537.html>
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
arrowstreet 13F data: <https://sec.report/Document/0001164508-21-000003/13f20211.html>
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
bank of new york 13F data: <https://sec.report/Document/0001390777-21-000051/>
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
swiss national bank 13F data: <https://sec.report/Document/0001582202-21-000002/>
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
rhumbline 13F data: <https://sec.report/Document/0001115418-21-000004/Q1_2021_13F.html>
|
@ -0,0 +1,12 @@
|
|||||||
|
Fidelity Top Orders by Customers Update - Friday July 2, 2021. Buys 83% & Sells 17% while stonk is down $1.53 (-0.75%) on 2.5m volume. Hope everyone took advantage of the discount. Enjoy the weekend!
|
||||||
|
=======================================================================================================================================================================================================
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
| Author | Source |
|
||||||
|
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||||
|
| [u/twittafingahsma](https://www.reddit.com/user/twittafingahsma/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/DDintoGME/comments/oci8fq/fidelity_top_orders_by_customers_update_friday/) |
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
---
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
[𝗗𝗮𝘁𝗮](https://www.reddit.com/r/DDintoGME/search?q=flair_name%3A%22%F0%9D%97%97%F0%9D%97%AE%F0%9D%98%81%F0%9D%97%AE%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
[](https://i.redd.it/ycy4n3e0wu871.png)
|
@ -0,0 +1,64 @@
|
|||||||
|
Reverse Repo Overnight Lending Chart - Update for May 27 2021
|
||||||
|
=============================================================
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
| Author | Source |
|
||||||
|
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||||
|
| [u/HODLTheLineMyFriend](https://www.reddit.com/user/HODLTheLineMyFriend/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/DDintoGME/comments/nmcn1e/reverse_repo_overnight_lending_chart_update_for/) |
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
---
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
[𝗦𝗽𝗲𝗰𝘂𝗹𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻](https://www.reddit.com/r/DDintoGME/search?q=flair_name%3A%22%F0%9D%97%A6%F0%9D%97%BD%F0%9D%97%B2%F0%9D%97%B0%F0%9D%98%82%F0%9D%97%B9%F0%9D%97%AE%F0%9D%98%81%F0%9D%97%B6%F0%9D%97%BC%F0%9D%97%BB%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Latest from the NY Fed Desk, $485B in reverse repo treasury lending with 50 counterparties. The update exactly matched the curve from the last few days, with R2 increasing to 0.95 from 0.93. Showing $1T by June 10. See below for what this means and how it *might* relate to GME.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
[](https://preview.redd.it/7yrdd6mt5p171.png?width=876&format=png&auto=webp&s=e61e95b77a74d17fc138011d611e229e92193a95)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Linear for my fellow stats nerds. It seems to be growing above linear and the R value is lower:
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
[](https://preview.redd.it/ltohauch6p171.png?width=877&format=png&auto=webp&s=09b31ca90bd08461f4a03024b7153d8593d00935)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Quick reminder: there is no $500B limit on Reverse Repo treasury lending. There is, however, an $80B limit per participant, so individual banks may start 'running out' of Treasuries to lend onward to their hedgie friends.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Useful links
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
- DD into Repo/Reverse Repo for those who are curious: <https://www.reddit.com/r/DDintoGME/comments/nlbsgy/the_fed_repo_market_and_overleveraged_equities/>
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
- Source of Fed Repo/Reverse Repo data: <https://apps.newyorkfed.org/markets/autorates/temp>
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
- Some great DD on the true limit of the reverse repo by [u/BlindasBalls](https://www.reddit.com/u/BlindasBalls/): <https://www.reddit.com/r/DDintoGME/comments/nkmoi9/response_to_the_post_about_the_reverse_repo_limit/>
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
- Helpful/hilarious explainer on the Reverse Repo situation: <https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nixxvc/fed_is_in_a_pickle_economy_is_fuk_edition/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf>
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
If you want to see my charts from the last few days, they're on my post wall: <https://www.reddit.com/user/HODLTheLineMyFriend/posts/>
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Keep on HODLin', friends! 🚀🚀🚀
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
-----
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Edit:
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Our friend [u/wehadmagnets](https://www.reddit.com/u/wehadmagnets/) was kind enough to get the walled FT article for me "US investors park cash at Fed as market wrestles with negative yields" from here: <https://www.ft.com/content/cdec7f2e-6129-412c-b118-8906a2a0f92f>.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
TA;DR:
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
- Today's Reverse Repo was the largest ever
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
- "Investors" (more than just banks) are seeking places to park cash, as other 'safe' places are drying up and/or having zero or negative rates
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
- "It is also not over yet." -- analyst at Oxford Economics
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
- Cash reserves ballooning due to "the Fed's purchases of $120bn of Treasuries and agency mortgage-backed securities each month"
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
- Money-market funds are getting swamped with people's cash (<speculation>flight from equities?</speculation>)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
- Fed is trying to avoid negative rates in money market
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
- No one thinks it's over
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
- Fed may have to raise interest rates on RRP or reserve balances in member banks to keep the federal funds rates from going lower (at 0.06 on target of 0.0-0.25)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Edit 2:
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
One more tweak, [u/leisure_rules](https://www.reddit.com/u/leisure_rules/) noted that the $120B is $120b total, $80b in T-Bonds and $40b in MBS (Mortgage Backed Securities).
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Um... could those be the Commercial MBS we've been hearing about that are toxic?
|
@ -0,0 +1,36 @@
|
|||||||
|
Reverse Repo Overnight Lending Chart - May 28 2021 update
|
||||||
|
========================================================
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
| Author | Source |
|
||||||
|
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||||
|
| [u/HODLTheLineMyFriend](https://www.reddit.com/user/HODLTheLineMyFriend/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/DDintoGME/comments/nn2yfa/reverse_repo_overnight_lending_chart_may_28_2021/) |
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
---
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
[𝗦𝗽𝗲𝗰𝘂𝗹𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻](https://www.reddit.com/r/DDintoGME/search?q=flair_name%3A%22%F0%9D%97%A6%F0%9D%97%BD%F0%9D%97%B2%F0%9D%97%B0%F0%9D%98%82%F0%9D%97%B9%F0%9D%97%AE%F0%9D%98%81%F0%9D%97%B6%F0%9D%97%BC%F0%9D%97%BB%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Latest from the NY Fed Desk, $479.5B in reverse repo treasury lending with 50 counterparties ([link](https://apps.newyorkfed.org/markets/autorates/temp)). Down by only 1%, counterparties unchanged. R2 value still at 0.95 on the curve. See below for what this means and how it *might* relate to GME.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
I think, given recent DD (including [today's](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nmxmri/clearing_up_the_fed_reverse_repos_and_what_it/) from [u/c-digs](https://www.reddit.com/u/c-digs/)), that this is either a) banks getting handed too much cash and trying to get it off their books overnight by turning from a liability (customer cash) to an asset (Treasury), or b) banks lending these Treasuries to hedge funds to improve their collateral and avoid margin calls. Or maybe a combination of both.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
[](https://preview.redd.it/4v9sr4gmaw171.png?width=876&format=png&auto=webp&s=d32e1c1d75c0d3285320b36eaadf7ae3b2063f80)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Linear match improved, with R2 of 0.927:
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
[](https://preview.redd.it/axwx1sj1bw171.png?width=877&format=png&auto=webp&s=edfca046fe0c418826727e8009f7fdd00f0483f0)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Quick reminder: there is no $500B cap on Reverse Repo treasury lending. There is, however, an $80B limit per participant, so individual banks may start 'running out' of Treasuries to lend onward to their hedgie friends, if that is what they are doing.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Useful links
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
- Yesterday's chart: <https://www.reddit.com/r/DDintoGME/comments/nmcn1e/reverse_repo_overnight_lending_chart_update_for/>
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
- DD into Repo/Reverse Repo for those who are curious: <https://www.reddit.com/r/DDintoGME/comments/nlbsgy/the_fed_repo_market_and_overleveraged_equities/>
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
- Some DD on the true limit of the reverse repo by [u/BlindasBalls](https://www.reddit.com/u/BlindasBalls/): <https://www.reddit.com/r/DDintoGME/comments/nkmoi9/response_to_the_post_about_the_reverse_repo_limit/>
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
- Helpful/hilarious explainer on the Reverse Repo situation: <https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nixxvc/fed_is_in_a_pickle_economy_is_fuk_edition/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf>
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
- Where's the cash coming from? DD on possibility of many people getting out of equities: <https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nmxmri/clearing_up_the_fed_reverse_repos_and_what_it/>
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Keep on HODLin', friends! 🚀🚀🚀
|
@ -0,0 +1,226 @@
|
|||||||
|
TL:DR -- I believe inflation is the match that has been lit that will light the fuse of our rocket. Part 2
|
||||||
|
=========================================================================================================
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
| Author | Source |
|
||||||
|
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||||
|
| [u/Dismal-Jellyfish](https://www.reddit.com/user/Dismal-Jellyfish/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/oe6i3l/tldr_i_believe_inflation_is_the_match_that_has/) |
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
---
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
[DD 👨🔬](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22DD%20%F0%9F%91%A8%E2%80%8D%F0%9F%94%AC%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
[](https://preview.redd.it/ehs02c6dwd971.gif?format=mp4&s=1d76c4fc8a45cd543d9a2ffeb4cd2eff02f74138)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Good morning r/Superstonk, neighborhood jellyfish here!
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
I would like to revisit some more data recently released and posted and continue trying to tie this all together as the situation continues to evolve.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Posts being referenced: [1st Inflation Post](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nxxwqt/tldr_i_believe_inflation_is_the_match_that_has/), [Existing Home Sales May](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/o6ie6p/a_deep_dive_into_the_housing_data_released/), [New Home sales May](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/o6soxw/part_ii_a_deep_dive_into_the_housing_data/), [Fed Balance Sheet through 6/16](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/o2dw45/thoughts_on_the_feds_balance_sheet_after_todays/), [It's not just manufacturing supply shortages, manufacturers can't get people for work](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/od9tt1/a_deep_dive_into_some_more_of_the_data_released/), [6.4% annualized inflation (PCE, excluding food and energy the most conservative inflation measure US government releases and the Fed relies on)](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/o7r4zw/the_feds_favorite_inflation_measure_which_is_the/)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
I want to start by revisiting the Fed's balance sheet. The last time we talked about it (6/17), it stood at a then RECORD $8.064 trillion. Let's write this one out: $8,064,000,000,000.As of July 1st, that number stands at a NEW RECORD $8,078,544,000,000---an increase of $14,544,000,000.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
[](https://preview.redd.it/z8dnwn5swd971.png?width=1827&format=png&auto=webp&s=6c72023ffe5b27cd93dfceb0df11fbf263ec6d5b)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
$8,078,544,000,000
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
[](https://preview.redd.it/jwxf3k0uwd971.png?width=1465&format=png&auto=webp&s=ceb3523e78313f82c4376e1fb65ec775e1b9cc16)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Look at that triangle that has started at $7 trillion!
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
So what caused the jump in the balance sheet?
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
The Treasury General Account (TGA), which Yellen said in February she wanted to [get to $500 billion by the end of June](https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/jy0011), actually increased by $86.815 Billion to $851 Billion.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Federal Reserve Notes, net jumped $4,594 million.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
The Fed's balance sheet is jumping while we are watching the housing bubble inflate in front of us.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
The rate of sales continues to trend downward, but median home prices for existing homes are up 23.6% year-over-year to an all-time high of $350,300 with May rising at the greatest year-over-year pace since at least 1999, up from $283,500 last year and $340,600 in April.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
So, months' supply is increasing (supply taking longer to move), sales are beginning to decrease (.9%) (demand), and median existing-home price across all housing types hit a record high of $350,300 in May, an increase of 23.6% from the year before (price).
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Despite supply increasing for months, single-family home sales by homebuilders to the public in May fell 6% from the prior month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 769,000 houses, down 23% from the recent high in January. This steep decline in sales occurred amid rising prices.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
The median price of new single-family houses rose 2.5% from the previous month, and spiked 18.1% year-over-year, to a record $374,400:
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
[](https://preview.redd.it/4xj0opyl1e971.png?width=802&format=png&auto=webp&s=6690f087ada69f13a8c35b8841a34c4d48e036c1)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
The drop in sales of new homes in the past months brought sales back to about pre-pandemic levels. On the other end of our equation, inventory really is rising!
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Unsold speculative houses rose for the fifth month in a row to 330,000 houses and months' supply rose to 5.1 months.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
New single-family homes completed since Jan 2021 : 1,328,000+1,347,000+1,497,000+1,426,000+1,368,000 = 6,966,000 homes
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
New single-family homes sold since Jan 2021 : 993,000 +823,000+886,000+817,000+ 769,000 = 4,288,000 homes
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Supply is up +2,678,000 homes in 2021 so far.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Stated another way:
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
The current supply is steadying with current inventory not moving at the current prices and is increasing as more homes come online (census bureau has it at ~ 4-8 months in 2020 to build from start to finish, projects started during the pandemic will be coming online), Demand is decreasing, Median Prices has increased to an all-time high.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
With the conditions of the housing market above, I believe we are entering 'textbook' bubble territory.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
[](https://preview.redd.it/bcoa3frsxd971.png?width=794&format=png&auto=webp&s=3d348043be4dd619112aad871705fd00ba02f737)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Source: https://www.investopedia.com/terms/h/housing_bubble.asp
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Ok, as we covered above, demand had been through the roof, but the supply is back on the rise and current stock is taking longer to move. At the same time, demand for new mortgages is decreasing as the supply continues to hold and increase---but prices continue to go up!
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
[](https://preview.redd.it/e8ge1yn0yd971.png?width=884&format=png&auto=webp&s=adbea8646a332e991679cf2214603ff39a2b499e)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
But what about delinquency rates? This can be a source to the supply...
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
[](https://preview.redd.it/e2jq2nc3yd971.png?width=1111&format=png&auto=webp&s=20b980c2faf5d470a30dc34a8f3106acdfc79fc3)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
https://www.mba.org/2021-press-releases/may/mortgage-delinquencies-decrease-in-the-first-quarter-of-2021
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
> On a year-over-year basis, total mortgage delinquencies increased for all loans outstanding. The delinquency rate increased by 141 basis points for conventional loans, increased 498 basis points for FHA loans, and increased 297 basis points for VA loans.The delinquency rate includes loans that are at least one payment past due but does not include loans in the process of foreclosure. The percentage of loans on which foreclosure actions were started in the first quarter rose by 1 basis point to 0.04 percent. The percentage of loans in the foreclosure process at the end of the first quarter was 0.54 percent, down 2 basis points from the fourth quarter of 2020 and 19 basis points from one year ago. This is the lowest foreclosure inventory rate since the first quarter of 1982.The seriously delinquent rate, the percentage of loans that are 90 days or more past due or in the process of foreclosure, was 4.70 percent. It decreased by 33 basis points from last quarter and increased by 303 basis points from last year. From the previous quarter, the seriously delinquent rate decreased 34 basis points for conventional loans, decreased 19 basis points for FHA loans, and decreased 37 basis points for VA loans. Compared to a year ago, the seriously delinquent rate increased by 205 basis points for conventional loans, increased 771 basis points for FHA loans, and increased 379 basis points for VA loans.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Then there are those still in or coming out of forbearance with the likely expiration and non-renewal of these Covid rules at the end of the month:
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
[The Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) latest Forbearance and Call Volume Survey revealed that the total number of loans now in forbearance decreased by 2 basis points from 4.18% of servicers' portfolio volume in the prior week to 4.16% as of May 30, 2021. According to MBA's estimate, 2.1 million homeowners are in forbearance plans.](https://www.mba.org/2021-press-releases/june/share-of-mortgage-loans-in-forbearance-slightly-decreases-to-416-percent)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
[](https://preview.redd.it/1hp4jrdbyd971.png?width=1169&format=png&auto=webp&s=33d5b84e2ff464c95a84049f5887674a1bc3f224)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
While it is great to see people come out of forbearance, if I am reading the numbers correctly, more than half of folks coming out are still going to have amounts that still need to be paid back. Budgets are already stretched tight, wage growth is decreasing, and inflation is making everything else more expensive.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
So, the central-bank asset purchases that continue chugging along [($120 billion per month](https://www.wsj.com/articles/central-bank-will-begin-reducing-bond-purchases-well-before-raising-interest-rates-powell-says-11618421656)) continue to help directly inflate this bubble! The music on inflating home prices is going to stop!
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
This brings me back to a comment from earlier this week I made in the RRP's post:
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
> Inflation is blowing up as they have a full-blown liquidity crisis on their hands!
|
||||||
|
>
|
||||||
|
> The Fed has backed themselves & the banks in a corner after letting the printer run brrrrr. High Reverse Repo Purchase usage signals that the banks simply don't have the balance sheets to accept the excess reserves. Even accounting for end-of-quarter use spiking, $991.939 billion to 90 participants is absolutely bonkers!!!
|
||||||
|
>
|
||||||
|
> Thus, they are forced to park them right back with the Fed using the [Overnight Reverse Repo Purchase and 0.05% lending](https://apps.newyorkfed.org/markets/autorates/temp).
|
||||||
|
>
|
||||||
|
> This has created a dangerous game of chicken in the market. Currently, the liquidity in the market is entirely artificial because of the aforementioned brrrrr. If the Fed lets up the slightest bit on the central-bank asset purchases [($120 billion per month currently](https://www.wsj.com/articles/central-bank-will-begin-reducing-bond-purchases-well-before-raising-interest-rates-powell-says-11618421656)), it could shut down the entire game. However, if JPow keeps letting the printer run, he risks hyperinflation and [further cracks in support from his members](https://web.archive.org/web/20210630081637/https:/www.nytimes.com/2021/06/30/business/economy/inflation-federal-reserve.html).
|
||||||
|
>
|
||||||
|
> It's turned into either no more liquidity for anyone or so much liquidity that the value of USD becomes near worthless and we see [Weimar Republic levels of hyperinflation.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hyperinflation_in_the_Weimar_Republic)
|
||||||
|
>
|
||||||
|
> For GME, I believe the thought is that no liquidity means institutions will have to sell off other assets to increase their capital supply. This will continue until they can no longer increase their capital supply to meet margin requirements.
|
||||||
|
>
|
||||||
|
> When/if institutions cannot meet their margin requirements (aka prove liquidity to be able to cover positions), DTCC will forcibly close all of their positions and MOASS takes flight
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
This is the game of chicken the Fed is caught up in---demand for housing (as we covered above) is going down, supply is increasing, yet prices continue to inflate---I believe this is in large part because of the $120 billion per month central bank MBS is allowing prices to continue to increase and build this bubble!
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Let's revisit the rate of inflation from my first post. The [CPI report](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nwodvj/the_consumer_price_index_climbed_06_from_the/) had inflation at 5% and we reviewed ICE BofA Single-B US High Yield Index Effective Yield @ 4.47% -.53% adjusted for inflation (Highly Speculative) and ICE BofA CCC & Lower US High Yield Index Effective Yield @ 6.83% 1.83% adjusted for inflation ("extremely speculative" to "default is imminent with little prospect for recovery").
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Annualizing the Personal Consumption Expenditures, excluding food and energy (PCE), again the *most conservative* inflation number the government offers, from the BEA report the other day, inflation is at 6.4%--inflation is at least 28% higher than the first time we examined this at 5%!!!
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Looking at the bonds again, adjusted for inflation, things are worse!
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
[](https://preview.redd.it/2zrpzjetyd971.png?width=1468&format=png&auto=webp&s=9afed52a1cd40a63a9fb923cf8953c2559a15d48)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
ICE BofA Single-B US High Yield Index Effective Yield @ 4.44% -1.93% adjusted for PCE inflation (Highly Speculative)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
[](https://preview.redd.it/m0nc740uyd971.png?width=1463&format=png&auto=webp&s=4ef8591e2dc1146b2e6d241184a0178f6299e362)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
ICE BofA CCC & Lower US High Yield Index Effective Yield @ 6.60% .2% adjusted for inflation ("extremely speculative" to "default is imminent with little prospect for recovery")
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Can we let that sink in again for a moment? To get any sort of positive yield an investor must expose themselves to bonds rated "extremely speculative" to "default is imminent with little prospect for recovery". If they invest in the Single-B 'Highly Speculative' they lose principal capital to inflation!
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Remember, they can't just sit on this cash as the dollar is losing buying power (as we have covered before), the cash would get eaten by inflation, and it is a liability for them---since they must pay interest on client cash. (This is where having *too much* cash is considered a liquidity crisis! There isn't enough good debt to place it in!). No wonder the Reverse Repo Markets are so heavily used!
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Before we go any further, let's do some quick level setting on bonds and their risk descriptions:
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
[](https://preview.redd.it/5pbdgumczd971.png?width=839&format=png&auto=webp&s=032247d092bcbcc01e6b348857e2c16839955c33)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
How the Credit Rating Agencies Classify Corporate Bonds and Loans by Credit Risk or the Risk of Default.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
0:00
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
3:44
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Any excuse to use this clip again makes my day...
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Again, JPow believes this inflation is transitory and will drop back down to 2%. The Fed has been 2 steps behind on inflation and I think they are severely underplaying a new wild dynamic in this inflation madness---people and businesses are willing to pay these prices!
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
We have looked extensively at the record median prices in homes, but let's consider cars for a minute. This is why I think the inflation game has changed! According to data from the [Bureau of Economic Analysis](https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?1921=underlying&isuri=1&reqid=19&step=2#1921=underlying&isuri=1&reqid=19&step=2) June sales for autos fell to 1.30 million vehicles, down 14.2% from June 2019, after a strong March, April, and May.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Vehicle sales picture
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
The Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) of sales,(takes the number of selling days and other seasonal factors into account and then annualizes the result), vehicle sales look:
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
June: 15.4 million SAAR, -9.5% from June 2019; the lowest for any month since January 2014.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
May: 17.0 million SAAR, -1.0% from May 2019.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
April: 18.6 million SAAR, the highest total for any month in 16 years, +7.4% from April 2019.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
March: 17.9 million SAAR, +7.9% from March 2019.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Carmakers and dealers are making money hand over fist though! Dealers by and large don't produce 'economy' cars and trucks anymore. Everything is has shifted to high profit-margin vehicles---for example, Ford (except for the Mustang) doesn't produce cars anymore!
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Because of this and shifting to have 'on-demand' inventories, the average transaction price for cars is at record highs, so is average gross profits per unit---the average transaction price (ATP) of new vehicles in June jumped 14.9% from a year ago, to $40,206, a [joint forecast from J.D. Power and LMC Automotive](https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20210625005063/en/J.D.-Power-and-LMC-Automotive-U.S.-Automotive-Forecast-for-June-2021)---a record surge,
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
> The combination of strong retail volumes and higher prices means that consumers are on track to spend $45.6 billion on new vehicles this month, the highest on record for the month of June. Consumer expenditures on new vehicles are expected to reach a Q2 record of $149.7 billion, up 60.7% from 2020 and up 27.9% from 2019.
|
||||||
|
>
|
||||||
|
> Total retailer profit per unit, inclusive of grosses and finance & insurance income, is on pace to reach an all-time high of $3,908, an increase of $2,061 from a year ago. Grosses have been above $2,000 for 11 of the past 12 months. Coupled with the strong retail sales pace, total aggregate retailer profits from new-vehicle sales will be $4.4 billion, the highest ever for the month of June and up an astounding 175% from June 2019.
|
||||||
|
>
|
||||||
|
> The combination of strong retail volumes and higher prices means that consumer expenditures on new vehicles are expected to reach a first-half record of $270.8 billion, up 47.8% from 2020 and up 24.7% from 2019.
|
||||||
|
>
|
||||||
|
> Retailer profits from new-vehicle sales will reach first-half record levels on both, a per unit, and total basis. Profit per unit for the first half of 2021 will reach $2,844, up $1,310 from the same period in 2020 and up $1,457 from 2019, while total profits will reach $20.2 billion, up $12.1 billion from 2020 and up $11.2 billion from 2019.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
The trade-in market is also nuts! [The chip shortage](https://www.detroitnews.com/story/business/autos/ford/2021/07/02/ford-sales-fall-27-june-lingering-chip-shortage/7839245002/) and covid have set the secondary market on fire. Normally, it is tempered through rental car companies and the like offloading their fleets. Covid has thrown a huge wrench into that, and add in the chip shortage in new vehicles, has led to what I believe is the fairy dust on this inflation fire, reports of low-mileage used vehicles costing more than the new model would cost if it were available.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
(timeout, I do hope RC and the GameStop team are reading up on how Toyota is killing this chip shortage since they had this sort of risk already identified in their Business Continuity Plan because of what happened with Fukushima in 2011!)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
A study by [iSeeCars](https://www.iseecars.com/used-cars-cost-more-than-new-study), which combed through over 470,000 new vehicles and "lightly used" 2019 and 2020 model-year vehicles, found that the gap between new and slightly used had "drastically narrowed" across the board, and it found that 16 hot models were selling for more money as used vehicles than their equivalent new versions, that were not in stock.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
On top of this list is the Kia Telluride, it would sell for $44,166 as new vehicle sold for $47,730 as a slightly used vehicle. The first six on the list were either pickups (GMC Sierra 1500, Toyota Tacoma, Toyota Tundra) or SUVs (Telluride, Mercedes-Benz G-Class, Toyota RAV4 Hybrid).
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Rather than haggle till they get the price down, or just not buy as they had done for a couple of years of the Great Recession, consumers are buying are paying whatever it takes to get a new or used vehicle or new or used home as their whole mindset about inflation has changed!
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
[](https://preview.redd.it/75z9o0bf0e971.png?width=600&format=png&auto=webp&s=be0146e852127aa6467848a5b4a3d31189834415)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
The brakes on inflation have been cut! This beast is going to keep running!
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
OK, so to try and wrap this up again:
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
- More cash is going to continue to pour in that needs to be placed.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
- Inflation is going to make it impossible to earn positive rates on assets after being adjusted for inflation on anything but "extremely speculative" to "default is imminent with little prospect for recovery" risks.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
- Cash can be stashed with the Fed @ 0.05% currently
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
- Previous collateral (zombie CMBS as an example) is considered junk and may be losing value due to being mistakenly rated/valued to begin, with yield rates, which had been used to secure the balance sheet now also being eaten by inflation. ([Washington Prime Group and certain of its subsidiaries filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection since the last time](https://investor.washingtonprime.com/investor-relations/news-and-views/news/news-details/2021/Washington-Prime-Group-Commences-Voluntary-Chapter-11-Financial-Restructuring-with-RSA-Supported-by-Over-70-of-Holders-of-Secured-and-Unsecured-Corporate-Debt/default.aspx))
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
- Their cash can't be used as collateral because it is a liability, and even if used, will suffer a loss of value from inflation.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Opinion: Because of inflation, the shorts are going to drown in their cash. There is no place for it to go to earn a positive yield greater than what inflation will eat, or should be acceptable for the level of risk of default.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
With nowhere to park this cash to generate positive yields and while having to contend with balance sheets that are having assets eaten away, participants will continue to use the Reverse Repo to buy time until:
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Being down in real terms because of inflation is something that cannot be made back up to service the debt and will weigh on balance sheets as they try to protect from margin calls.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Their existing collateral on the balance sheet can get re-rated lower, re-appraised lower, or just eaten by inflation to the point even what they are borrowing in treasuries can't meet the requirements to hold off a margin call.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
They hit the 80 billion Reverse Repo limit because of nowhere else to place cash, are tapped out on treasuries, and no longer able to post acceptable collateral to meet their margin requirements.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Finally, GameStop now faces inflation concerns because of that fat stack of cash they have ready to deploy!
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
I am sure RC and company have plans to deploy that capital in ways that will earn more than the rate of inflation, but I would like to propose they consider setting at least 1% of that cash aside to hedge the company against inflation moving forward to invest in b I t c o I n and e t h e r e u m.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
I know this investment suggestion is probably controversial! However, I've been in crypto longer than GameStop (and DFV has been in GameStop), and it was understanding these fundamentals that helped make his explanations and some of the DD here click for me to ape into GameStop when I learned about it.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
I am happy to touch on these subjects in the comments further (but I do want to keep this on the topic as much as possible and try and wrap up), but in short, I believe in [PlanB's Stock-to-Flow](https://twitter.com/100trillionUSD) hypothesis on b I t c o I n.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
I think GameStop could benefit some cash to this asset that cannot be inflated away, and as Elon proved, can be turned from cash-b I t c o I n-cash instantly.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
More importantly, though, I think the company should allocate a portion of that to staking e t h e r e u m and offering the ability to stake to GameStop's user base.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
In the future, I believe GME values decentralization of ownership of our digital assets, which is why we should buy and mint NFT's on GameStop's Blockchain.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
For the less blockchain familiar GameStop users, I think GameStop should open up the protocol to allow ETH2 staking with GME? Empower the players to secure the metaverse?
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
For the balance sheet though, if you're staking on E t h e r e u m 2.0, E t h e r e u m 's parallel PoS network, your operations are earning you a roughly 8% annual percentage return (APR). This number is higher than the rate of inflation that we covered as well! Yes, E t h e r e u m fluctuates in price, but as we covered above, staking will also further secure and make the network stronger, which in turn does the same for the metaverse!
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
EIP-1559 is in flight. What this means is that net "issuance" of new coins minted is going to be dramatically lowered. To put it in perspective, the issuance rate right now is 4.5% per year, the estimates for the issuance rate after EIP 1559 is implemented are .5 - 1%. Why does this matter?
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
So b I t c o in issuance halves every 4 years right? (this is what makes the stock-to-flow model tick) Well, an issuance drop from 4.5% is the equivalent of 3 halvenings happening at one time. (4.5 cut in half to 2.25 again to 1.125 and again to .56). E t h e r e u m is already at a multi-year low supply on exchanges, once this happens E t h e r e u m will become more instantly scarce. People have dubbed this the "Cliffening".
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
I believe this increasingly scarce asset that will also secure the metaverse would be a great place to place cash to avoid inflation!
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
TL:DR -- I believe inflation is the match that has been lit that will light the fuse of our rocket.
|
@ -0,0 +1,12 @@
|
|||||||
|
Breaking: the Swedish broker AVANZA will finally do a non-vote broker! I'm proud of all the Swedes that fought the good fight!
|
||||||
|
==============================================================================================================================
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
| Author | Source |
|
||||||
|
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||||
|
| [u/Jmeshareholder](https://www.reddit.com/user/Jmeshareholder/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nm39ni/breaking_the_swedish_broker_avanza_will_finally/) |
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
---
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
[News 📰 | Media 📱](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22News%20%F0%9F%93%B0%20%7C%20Media%20%F0%9F%93%B1%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
[](https://i.redd.it/dkq9z6hrom171.jpg)
|
@ -0,0 +1,12 @@
|
|||||||
|
I look up "Top Brokers" for GME year to date and Virtu Financial ranks head and shoulders on top. Ranking is similar for AMC. How do i interpret this data? Is Virtu a villain?
|
||||||
|
===============================================================================================================================================================================
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
| Author | Source |
|
||||||
|
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||||
|
| [u/Sti8man7](https://www.reddit.com/user/Sti8man7/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nr6urb/i_look_up_top_brokers_for_gme_year_to_date_and/) |
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
---
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
[News 📰 | Media 📱](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22News%20%F0%9F%93%B0%20%7C%20Media%20%F0%9F%93%B1%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
[](https://i.redd.it/vbvtcglvxz271.jpg)
|
7
Monkey-Business/2021-06-24-Monkey-Business.md
Normal file
7
Monkey-Business/2021-06-24-Monkey-Business.md
Normal file
@ -0,0 +1,7 @@
|
|||||||
|
# Monkey Business
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
| Author | Source |
|
||||||
|
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||||
|
| [Superstonk](https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCI4EET9NJPWxUuXGlG6fxPA) | [YouTube](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=52JbzEuYb8A&list=PLDwg9A7JEnq-GpLCtPxcrmKfIF-MzRuTo&index=2) |
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
---
|
57
NFT/2021-07-02-Clarifying-NFTs.md
Normal file
57
NFT/2021-07-02-Clarifying-NFTs.md
Normal file
@ -0,0 +1,57 @@
|
|||||||
|
Clarifying NFT's: What they are good for, and what they are not
|
||||||
|
===============================================================
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
| Author | Source |
|
||||||
|
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||||
|
| [u/GooseG17](https://www.reddit.com/user/GooseG17/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/oc7ji4/clarifying_nfts_what_they_are_good_for_and_what/) |
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
---
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
[Education 👨🏫 | Data 🔢](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22Education%20%F0%9F%91%A8%E2%80%8D%F0%9F%8F%AB%20%7C%20Data%20%F0%9F%94%A2%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Note\
|
||||||
|
Etherium is an incorrect spelling. The correct spelling is filtered by automod. Since it is related to GameStop, blocking it is, in my opinion, absurd. Especially since it isn't even the correct name of the currency. For a sub that values open discourse and informed discussion, this is pretty disappointing.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Intro
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
NFT's have been getting a lot of attention lately due to the GameStop NFT, with a lot of the discussion demonstrating a lack of understanding on what exactly an NFT is and what it can be used for, so I thought I'd help explain some of the technical wizardry that is blockchain and its latest buzzword-craze.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Blockchain
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
A blockchain is a transactional database (ledger) that is stored and validated by many different computers. Imagine a bank statement that is verified and saved by thousands of different computers. This makes it virtually impossible to fraudulently alter if sufficiently decentralized. There are multiple methods blockchains can use to ensure that the network is decentralized to maintain security. Understanding them is beyond the scope of this post, but the major methods are proof of work and proof of stake. The main one relevant to GameStop is proof of stake, since the network they are using, Etherium, is upgrading to proof of stake in the near future.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Etherium
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Etherium differs from the original blockchain design by implementing smart contracts. Smart contracts are computer programs that run on the blockchain, allowing developers to leverage security and reliability of blockchain technology for limitless possibilities. One these use cases are custom assets that do not require their own blockchain, vastly simplifying secure deployment. These are called tokens.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Token
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
A token is a a term used for user-created coins on the Etherium network, essentially anything that isn't the core currency. Etherium transactions are not free. The cost depends on the relative processing power required to complete the transaction, so keeping programs as simple as possible is important. Which is why there are multiple types of tokens instead of a single all-purpose type. There are two major types:
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
1. ERC20\
|
||||||
|
The typical token of the Etherium network. They are *fungible*, meaning every token is entirely identical. Because token ownership is basic to keep track of, only needing the owner address and quantity, usage is simple and each transaction is inexpensive.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
2. ERC721\
|
||||||
|
An alternative to ERC20 tokens that provide greater utility. They are *non-fungible tokens*, so each token has unique identifiers and metadata. An ERC721 token can store many more data fields, making them comparatively expensive to create and transact. They are not a direct replacement for ERC20 tokens, primarily due to the added expense and complexity.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Now that definitions are out of the way, lets get in to what does and does not make sense for GameStop to use an NFT for:
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Non-Fungible Token (ERC721) uses:
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
1. Collectibles Things like playing cards or in-game items
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
2. Licenses/ownership certificates Like video games, for enabling trading of used games
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Fungible token (ERC20) uses:
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
1. Crypto dividends\
|
||||||
|
Stocks are fungible, so why wouldn't a dividend be too? Not only would an NFT dividend be wasteful, it would also mean that our identical shares wouldn't net us an identical reward, which is completely nonsensical in my opinion.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
2. Stock market shares\
|
||||||
|
If the stock market were to be run on the blockchain, NFT's wouldn't just be wasteful or unfair, they would be completely insane. Storing billions of NFT's (one for every share) instead of thousands of ERC20's (one for each stock) would be vastly more resource intensive for no benefit.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Please let me know if you find a mistake. Criticisms welcome. Thanks for reading!
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Smooth-brain simplification edit:
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
All the pros of a crypto dividend (like GameStop having sole distribution capability) remain with a *fungible* (ERC20) token. A *Non-Fungible Token* (ERC721, NFT) has cons that wouldn't make sense for this purpose.
|
27
README.md
27
README.md
@ -16,15 +16,21 @@ This repository of GME-related content and relevant information serves two prima
|
|||||||
|
|
||||||
> Please note most if not all of this content is not my own. All authors and sources are linked at the top of each file, and I encourage you to read the content via the source. There are a lot of intelligent apes who spent copious amounts of time doing their research and deserve your upvote!
|
> Please note most if not all of this content is not my own. All authors and sources are linked at the top of each file, and I encourage you to read the content via the source. There are a lot of intelligent apes who spent copious amounts of time doing their research and deserve your upvote!
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
## Key Features
|
---
|
||||||
### Search by Date
|
|
||||||

|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
### Search by Title
|
## Key Features
|
||||||

|
|
||||||
|
### Search by Title
|
||||||
|

|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
### Search by Date
|
||||||
|

|
||||||
|
|
||||||
### Browse by Theme
|
### Browse by Theme
|
||||||

|

|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
### Save a Copy for Yourself
|
||||||
|

|
||||||
|
|
||||||
---
|
---
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
@ -46,7 +52,10 @@ _Check out the [Must-Read](https://github.com/verymeticulous/wikAPEdia/tree/main
|
|||||||
|
|
||||||
---
|
---
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
## Some People to Look Out For by [u/zedinstead](https://www.reddit.com/u/zedinstead/)
|
## 🦍 Some People to Look Out For by [u/zedinstead](https://www.reddit.com/u/zedinstead/) 🦍
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|

|
||||||
|
*Banner created by [GameStop](https://twitter.com/GameStop?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor)*
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
Exponential Floor guy -- [u/JTH1](https://www.reddit.com/u/JTH1/)
|
Exponential Floor guy -- [u/JTH1](https://www.reddit.com/u/JTH1/)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
@ -109,6 +118,10 @@ Quant guy 1 - [u/xpurplexamyx](https://www.reddit.com/u/xpurplexamyx/)
|
|||||||
Quant guy 2 - [u/myplayprofile](https://www.reddit.com/u/myplayprofile/)
|
Quant guy 2 - [u/myplayprofile](https://www.reddit.com/u/myplayprofile/)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
---
|
---
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
## 🆘 How to Help 🆘
|
||||||
|
Can't find content in wikAPEdia that you think should be archived? Don't hesitate to reach out to me on [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/user/Meticulous-)!
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
### Buy, Hodl, ~~Vote~~ 💎🙌
|
### Buy, Hodl, ~~Vote~~ 💎🙌
|
||||||
|
|
||||||

|

|
||||||
|
@ -0,0 +1,138 @@
|
|||||||
|
New OCC rule passed to fuck the large financial institutions out of using derivatives to pass their tests.
|
||||||
|
==========================================================================================================
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
| Author | Source |
|
||||||
|
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||||
|
| [u/laflammaster](https://www.reddit.com/user/laflammaster/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/ocotk9/new_occ_rule_passed_to_fuck_the_large_financial/) |
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
---
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
[DD 👨🔬](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22DD%20%F0%9F%91%A8%E2%80%8D%F0%9F%94%AC%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
[u/leisure_rules](https://www.reddit.com/u/leisure_rules/) has pointed me to the OCC - something that I should have been taking a look at since the beginning of my journey into the workings of the Fed.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
So I decided to look deeper. OP: <https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/ocfcfi/occ_rule_in_effect_7121_net_stable_funding_ratio/>
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
TLDR start - and this is not short, as the document is close to 10k pages, with this section of 102 pages alone;
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
After the recent test, it looks like the Fed shat themselves. A new rule was rushed to be introduced by the self-regulating fucks for the banks and split NFSR into 4 categories of application. Despite the rule having been in plan since 2016 and kind of in play, but has a ton of mentions of '08 crash.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
[](https://preview.redd.it/gpshz8d4mw871.png?width=808&format=png&auto=webp&s=5217e1c67fed03fb4076ac08fdc6b6661210b8d3)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
the Fed looking back at the '08 crash - I'll fucking do it again!
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Only the Category II of the banks have submitted a comment that the fucks in Category II will have a fire sale with such strict requirements. Rule passed for more stringent reporting just after the Fed passed the stress test for the banks, allowing them to buy back shares ($12Bn worth, likely the $12Bn that they got from gouging their customers on overdraft fees - no joke ($11Bn in 2019)).
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Because it is instituted on July 1st, 2021 - allowing the banks to have 10 business days to provide a response/plan on how to deal with their shitty NFSR ratio - we are likely looking at a few weeks if the NFSR ration is rated as bad in some of the banks. But we can expect some movement in the market next week - real movement.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Now these agencies are no longer going to count derivatives towards a positive ASF (Available Stable Funding) factor. Further, RSF (Required Stable Funding) factor is set to 100% for the derivatives. This is a double-banana worthy of Rick!
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Look at the equation (sauce to [u/leisure_rules](https://www.reddit.com/u/leisure_rules/)) :
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
[](https://preview.redd.it/06e8x7immw871.png?width=350&format=png&auto=webp&s=02ab003204ff3a22949659661339635e9a41fbdf)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
NSFR Ratio calculation
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
What is ASF:
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
- Sum of carrying values of the banking organization's liabilities and regulatory capital, each multiplied by a standardized weighting (ASF factor) ranging from 0 to 100%.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Here's the chart of proposed ASF factors: <https://www.federalregister.gov/d/2020-26546/p-363>
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
What is RSF:
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
- Sum of the carrying values of its assets, each multiplied by a standardized weighting (RSF factor) ranging from 0 to 100% to reflect the relative need for funding over a 1 year horizon based on liquidity characteristics of the asset
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
- PLUS RSF amounts based on the banking organization's committed facilities and derivatives exposure (CRIAND!!!)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Here's the chart of the RSF factors: <https://www.federalregister.gov/d/2020-26546/p-481>
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
TLDR end;
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
I'd like to put together a summary of what the fuck is going on - its all in plain English, and I suggest to read it yourself to gain more wrinkles:
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Introduction
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
The OCC, the Fed, and OCC (agencies) are looking into a 2016 rule to establish NSFR (net stable funding ratio) for any institution with >=$10Bn of consolidated assets.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Another two proposals that were being looked into are:
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
- scope of NSFR
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
- Complex Institution Liquidity Monitoring Report (FR 2052a) - to basically get self-regulating information from the banks (Smells like Goldman's F3 to anyone?)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Background
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
In the '08 crash, the banks had issues with risk management, specifically how the banks managed their liabilities to fund their assets.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Further, there was an overreliance on short-term, less-stable funding - no shit, they were leveraged to shits.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
In response, Basel Committee on Banking Supervision (BCBS) created 2 liquidity standards:
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
1. Liquidity Coverage Ratio (LCR) - for high net cash outflows in a period of stress
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
2. NFSR - for banks to not be taking handies behind Wendy's after using their credit cards to play the casino
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Part of the LCR rule was for the banks to hold a specific amount of unencumbered high-quality liquid assets (HQLA) that can be easily converted into cash to meet payments for a 30-day stress period.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Along with the "poorly done" Dodd-Frank Act, the board (Fed) decided to adopt an "enhanced prudential standards rule, which established general risk management, liquidity risk management, and stress testing requirements for certain bank holding companies and foreign banking organizations."
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
PROBLEM: The framework never addressed the relationship between a banking organization's funding profile and its composition of assets and off-balance commitments. NO SHIT!
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
ANOTHER PROBLEM: The fucking rule was passed AFTER the recent stress test!
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Here's where the margin debt comes in - being 2x that of '00 and '08 crashes. Coupled with [u/Criand](https://www.reddit.com/u/Criand/) DD - means the OCC is realizing how big of a shitshow it has become, and was never dealt with until Retail started making money and exposing their shit.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
[](https://preview.redd.it/h6z4tnfdnw871.png?width=1238&format=png&auto=webp&s=2379718666e122b78046c5be4ee487a7df8ec057)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Margin Debt w/ S&P500
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Overview of the Proposed Rule and Proposed Scope of Application
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
- The Proposed Stable Funding Requirement
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
1. In June '16, comments were invited on the rule
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
2. Rule was generally consistent with the Basel NSFR, but has some characteristics of U.S. market
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
3. Proposed rule: maintaining ratio of ASF equal or greater than the minimum funding needs (RSF) over a 1 year horizon to be minimum 1.0.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
The Final Rule
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
- The final rule assigns a zero percent RSF factor to unencumbered level 1 liquid asset securities and certain short-term secured lending transactions backed by level 1 liquid asset securities
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
- The final rule provides more favorable treatment for certain affiliate sweep deposits and non-deposit retail funding
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
- The final rule permits cash variation margin to be eligible to offset a covered company's current exposures under its derivatives transactions even if it does not meet all of the criteria in the agencies' supplementary leverage ratio rule (SLR rule). In addition, variation margin received in the form of rehypothecatable level 1 liquid asset securities also would be eligible to offset a covered company's current exposures
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
- The final rule reduces the amount of a covered company's gross derivatives liabilities that will be assigned a 100 percent RSF factor
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Application of the final rule.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
The agencies have decided to break down the application/companies into 4 categories:
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
- Category I: US global systemically important banks (GSIBs) and any of their depository institution subsidiaries with >=$10Bn in consolidated assets
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
- Category II: Top-tier banking organizations, other than US GSIBs, with >=$700Bn in consolidated assets of >=$75Bn in average cross-jurisdiction activity, and to their depository institutions with >=$10Bn in consolidated assets.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
- Category III: Top-tier banking organizations that have >=$250Bn in consolidated assets, or that have >$100Bn in consolidated assets and also have >=$75Bn or more in:
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
- Average nonbank assets
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
- Average weighted short-term wholesale funding
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
- Average off-balance sheet exposure (not in Category I or II)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
- Category IV: Top-tier depository institutions holding companies or US intermediate holding companies that in each case have >=$100Bn in consolidated assets and >=$50Bn average weighted short-term wholesale funding (not in Category I, II, or III)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
NFSR Requirements by Category
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
1. Category I: 100%
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
2. Category II: 100%
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
3. Category III: 85%
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
4. Category IV: 70%
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Short Sales - I SUGGEST YOU READ THE WHOLE SECTION (IT IS GOLD) (<https://www.federalregister.gov/d/2020-26546/p-810>)
|
@ -0,0 +1,90 @@
|
|||||||
|
Wen Moon ? [TA/DD/Elliot Wave/Gamma Squeeze(Options)]
|
||||||
|
=====================================================
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
| Author | Source |
|
||||||
|
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||||
|
| [u/MOSfriedeggs](https://www.reddit.com/user/MOSfriedeggs/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/n2witz/wen_moon_taddelliot_wavegamma_squeezeoptions/) |
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
---
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
[DD 👨🔬](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22DD%20%F0%9F%91%A8%E2%80%8D%F0%9F%94%AC%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Hello follow apes 🦍 this DD/TA post is a combination of my own smooth brain chart TA and the analysis of a professional trader and Youtuber named Andrew a.k.a Trading Sciences *(link at the end of the post)* Elliot Wave Theory/Options Chain Analysis.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
This is going to be short and straight to the point as I want a maximum of Apes to understand what\
|
||||||
|
might happen next week with our favorite stock. Please keep in mind these dates and prices are not set in stone, but will give you a general idea of where we could be going and what might end up happening this month. 🚀
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Part I : MOAW (Mother Of All Wedges)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
What Is a Wedge? ([source](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/w/wedge.asp))
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
*A wedge is a price pattern marked by converging trend lines on a price chart. The lines show that the highs and the lows are either rising or falling and differing rates, giving the appearance of a wedge as the lines approach a convergence. Wedge shaped trend lines are considered useful indicators of a potential reversal in price action.*
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
In this picture the *Yellow lines* represent our *MOAW***,** the green line represents the approximative price where *Elliot's Waves* converge it's also a great resistance/support. The blue line was made using our lowest and highest point from January 27th to try and illustrate how explosive the stock can be in the right circumstances in this case I was estimating a price of around 600$, triggering a massive gamma squeeze in the process and putting insane pressure on the short sellers.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
I've try to draw this wedge using different prices and the result all pointed in the same direction, as you can see we we will be breaking out the giant Doritos somewhere around the end of next week.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
[Doritos and crayons](https://preview.redd.it/zx322414hlw61.png?width=805&format=png&auto=webp&s=3773edd19aeecc37a25cc00cc792552d8aa634bd)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|

|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Part II : MacDaddy
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Moving average convergence divergence (MACD) is a trend-following momentum indicator that shows the relationship between two moving averages of a security's price. ([source](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/m/macd.asp))
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
As some of you might have noticed the MACD on the daily timeframe has been green for 3 trading days now, if we look at our last two run-up it took 7-8 trading days from the time the MACD turned green to the time it peaked, if history repeat hitself we would hit another peak somewhere around thursday/friday right on schedual to break out the Doritos.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
[MACD](https://preview.redd.it/btwqsz07hlw61.png?width=539&format=png&auto=webp&s=afa64fd31dbc5a33fa3188d749c95a4a9b6dd583)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|

|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
[3 days after MACD crossover](https://preview.redd.it/945rp457klw61.png?width=430&format=png&auto=webp&s=950cb872e243ba97dca84c39c9dd80b700a6ad53)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|

|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
[wen moon?](https://preview.redd.it/dk7uajibklw61.png?width=440&format=png&auto=webp&s=0d1a61f75d6a71ba9db85b083bdd3277364b3ba9)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|

|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
PART III : Elliot Wave Theory
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
In his [*video*](https://youtu.be/GDeMralCaiY?t=130) Andew predict the price action, he explain in detail that according to Elliot Wave theory we would hit a stock price of approx. 216$ish erly next week *(Green line in the first picture/ Green circle in the picture underneath)*\
|
||||||
|
following a possible correction, where apes would buy the dip en masse as usual. From there, it's impossible to predict the exact price but according to his analysis it would be around 800$+**. (Keep that in mind for the next part)**
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
[Elliot Wave](https://preview.redd.it/du60t9adklw61.png?width=806&format=png&auto=webp&s=340a1ccbf40b3d22b215ea1df749723e5fe348ee)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|

|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Part IV : Gamma Squeeze
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
A "gamma squeeze" is a trading terminology that refers to massive call buying leading to higher stock prices, which leads to more call buying, a higher stock price and so on.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
For a gamma squeeze to start, a group of small retail traders or one big trader betting that a stock will rise buy short-dated call options in the underlying stock.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Once they buy these call options, the investment banks and intuitional investors that sell them essentially become short the underlying stock.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Should the traders buy more call options, market makers and institutional brokers will be forced to buy more shares of the underlying stock to hedge their short position.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Just like a short squeeze, as the price of a stock begins to go up and traders increase their call positions, market makers are forced to buy the underlying the stock thus pushing its price higher.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Investors selling or writing the call are hoping the price will fall, but like going short, the downside can technically be limitless because the stock can keep on climbing instead of dropping to zero.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
If a stock has low liquidity, the latter can cause the share price to rise even further, forcing brokerages to purchase even more shares as the value of their exposure increases further as the share price gets closer to the strike price of call options.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Wheter its 200$/300$/400$/600$/800$ doesn't matter, Hedgies are fucked. By looking at the picture below I hope you understand why they fought so hard to keep the price below 180$ this week. if you want more in depth explanations on this, watch the video I [linked](https://youtu.be/GDeMralCaiY?t=461) below at the 7:41 mark where he compares GME to other stocks and tell us why this is very bullish.\
|
||||||
|
Someone can correct me if I'm wrong, but in theory if we go above 200$ it could create a domino effect of FOMO/*gamma squeeze* that will then trigger a *MOASS* completly annihilating short sellers in the process.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
[Options go STONK!!!](https://preview.redd.it/6skqhhleklw61.png?width=672&format=png&auto=webp&s=e15133270aecbbe6907f096da66635064ecf0575)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|

|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
*TLDR :*\
|
||||||
|
Buy and HOLD. MACD, giant Wedge, Elliot Wave Theory and Options are extremly bullish for next week. I Know TA is not 100% reliable on GME, this is only my personal opinion and not financial advice.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
*Trading Sciences video on EWT/Options :*\
|
||||||
|
<https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GDeMralCaiY>
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Only reason this will work is because I know most APES by now have hands as hard as [💎](https://emojipedia.org/gem-stone/) and would never sell at a low price. Remember the upside is limitless 🚀\
|
||||||
|
I apologize in advance for mistakes as english isn't my first language.
|
@ -0,0 +1,56 @@
|
|||||||
|
wen moon ? II : wen in doubt ¦
|
||||||
|
==============================
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
| Author | Source |
|
||||||
|
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||||
|
| [u/MOSfriedeggs](https://www.reddit.com/user/MOSfriedeggs/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/n4b6kf/wen_moon_ii_wen_in_doubt/) |
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
---
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
[DD 👨🔬](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22DD%20%F0%9F%91%A8%E2%80%8D%F0%9F%94%AC%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Greetings 🦍 I wanted to do a quick follow up on my last [*DD*](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/n2witz/wen_moon_taddelliot_wavegamma_squeezeoptions/) and give my opinion on what happened today and how it relates to my previous post. Also wanted to say thanks to everybody who took the time to read it, special shout out to those who gave awards. I will release part 3 next week-end to recap the week and give a review on how everything turned out. Once again this is gonna be straight to the point.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
You can check out Part 1 [*here*](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/n2witz/wen_moon_taddelliot_wavegamma_squeezeoptions/)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Part 1 : GUH ?
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
This morning large funds and their agents tried to short us into oblivion in an attempt to slow down our bullish momentum (What's behind 180 Kenny ?), we were breaking out the wedge ahead of schedual and they just couldn't let it happen. **(***See for yourself in the picture below)*. You can also see that their first attempt on may 30th wasn't succesful so they knew they had to go hard this time. In the next part, I will explain why I believe it doesn't matter as much as you'd think and why I believe it's desperation.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
[](https://preview.redd.it/uu4duv2ukzw61.png?width=505&format=png&auto=webp&s=74c39eabed03c109963729621ae4c6b0b1bd1bb9)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
GUH?! really Kenny ?
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Part 1 : The Unbreakable Trend Line
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Ever since February Hedgies haven't been able to break the trendline represented by the **THICC dotted yellow line. (**also the bottom part of the wedge) Meaning, that agaisnt all odds we've been on a slow and steady climb. I believe this is due to the fact that we've doing such a great job at buying + holding 🚀 , (*as you can see from the pictures below)* , it's been a constant battle but we refused to gave them an inch.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
The fight started to turn in our favor so they bombarded the shit out us this morning. this THICC line should be our launching pad, shorts want this to be the the edge of the world and make us crash down.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
As you can see, even after today brutal attack we're still on course to break out. HOLDING STRONG as always. We don't like dates so much around here, but this week and cinqo de buyo *(shoutout to whoever came up with that name)* will be decisive *IMO* . *When in doubt Just zoom out bro*
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
😎
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
[](https://preview.redd.it/ic54j2x4jzw61.png?width=693&format=png&auto=webp&s=4b50a3a567a07a63e50765c5957a1edc826d412a)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Daily time frame
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
[](https://preview.redd.it/g9l6g3f7jzw61.png?width=697&format=png&auto=webp&s=6f2296cd2039beac03429d2e432aaca99e6cbe00)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
4H time frame
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
[](https://preview.redd.it/aeeunf0jnzw61.png?width=777&format=png&auto=webp&s=8c58b59ee6679265160d51f016bb5c0c40a1573d)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
1 Min
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Part 3 : What's next ??? Wen moon ???
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
If we continue to trade above the THICC YELLOW LINE like we've been doing ever since February we will eventually see 200$ again 🐢, like I said in my previous *DD* Hedgies don't want that for obvious reasons.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
I would expect the more of the same tommorow. Huge sell-off at open with us playing catch up all day trying to keep our head above water. Their goal will be to sink us below *154$, doing that would break the trendline for the first time and make us deviate from our momentum.* Expect fuckery and as always. BUY+HOLD 🙌 💎
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
If we manage to stay on course and break out the trendline on the 5th/6th with some decent volume, the stock could get really explosive like we all know it can.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
*As always feel free to comment if you disagree, or if you want to say thanks it is much appreciated.*
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
This is only my personal opinion and not financial advice.
|
@ -0,0 +1,58 @@
|
|||||||
|
wen moon ? III : Destroyer Of All FUD [TA/MOAW/Options/Elliot Wave/Gamma Squeeze/MOASS]
|
||||||
|
=======================================================================================
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
| Author | Source |
|
||||||
|
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||||
|
| [u/MOSfriedeggs](https://www.reddit.com/user/MOSfriedeggs/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/n7zf0l/wen_moon_iii_destroyer_of_all_fud/) |
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
---
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
[DD 👨🔬](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22DD%20%F0%9F%91%A8%E2%80%8D%F0%9F%94%AC%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Greetings once again [🦍](https://emojipedia.org/gorilla/) as promised, this post will be a follow up on my two previous DD if you want to read them or challenge me on my predictions both links are below.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
[I](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/n2witz/wen_moon_taddelliot_wavegamma_squeezeoptions/) wen moon ?[II](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/n4b6kf/wen_moon_ii_wen_in_doubt/). wen moon ? II : wen in doubt
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Alot of Good DDs came out recently so I wanted to join in on the action and offer my own perspective I also wanted to follow up the prediction that were made last week. In combination I will back my observations using Wardenlive endgame [DD](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/n5me5g/the_mother_of_all_wedges_an_endgame_dd_technical/) and Trading Sciences TA [latest video](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=riDSUjSdixA). Once again I'll keep everything short and straight to the point.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
PART 1 : MOAW revisited (MOTHER OF ALL WEDGES)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
*If you haven't read Warden* [*DD*](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/n5me5g/the_mother_of_all_wedges_an_endgame_dd_technical/) *on the MOAW i highly recommend it, my first* [*DD*](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/n2witz/wen_moon_taddelliot_wavegamma_squeezeoptions/) *that came out a week prior also explains in sort of a* *TLDR* *version.*
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
As you can see on the images below we broke out the APEX of the wedge on the upside, finishing green on friday at 161.11$, this to me is extremly bullish. In my second [DD](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/n4b6kf/wen_moon_ii_wen_in_doubt/) I predicted that last week Hedgies would try to bring us below that RED line to try and break our *bullish* momentum and ho boy! did they try. On monday and tuesday they attacked us viciously bringing in us down from 177 to 151.86.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Once again our diamonds hands prevailed.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
[$GME broke out the MOAW on the upside (daily timeframe)](https://preview.redd.it/o8rqos64hyx61.png?width=624&format=png&auto=webp&s=645e405d9ebfa77d9231580dafab84eaff7cb893)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
[$GME breakout of the MOAW (4h timeframe)](https://preview.redd.it/auqeq6s0jyx61.png?width=564&format=png&auto=webp&s=59d5ad02c653acf7a13068477ebba7a0f7c4c13a)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
[Massive attacks Monday and Tuesday](https://preview.redd.it/oo5wbps9kyx61.png?width=382&format=png&auto=webp&s=3184c336d9fedfd61a646e2c3263e5614c16a30d)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
PART II : The Unbreakable Trendline
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
In my second [DD](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/n4b6kf/wen_moon_ii_wen_in_doubt/), I theorized that as long as this trendline would hold we would be in good shape, I've also pointed out that Hedgies would attack it hard, as they did earlier last week. I was happy to see that it held. If Shorts are not able to break it in the near future, we are gonna see 200 soon-ish meaning we are indeed inevitable mid-long term, find out why in part 3-4.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
<https://preview.redd.it/i7drpjvflyx61.png?width=440&format=png&auto=webp&s=1c071a502cf6dbd34827c8f885dad5f16968c12c>
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
[Possible outcome over the next month](https://preview.redd.it/y9iq7yuelyx61.png?width=538&format=png&auto=webp&s=46ec06b20c10193acac8c01300d1c7970bf79c16)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
[from WardenLine ENDGAME MOAW DD.](https://preview.redd.it/fawsvphtmyx61.png?width=1225&format=png&auto=webp&s=f31b3404b97d864751148a0898e6e18e3b9a69c1)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
To ruin this trend they would need to sink Gamestop below 150-140 and decrease it's price daily over a month, but I don't see APES letting it happen because all we know is BUY+HODL 🚀.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
[Kenny G wet dream](https://preview.redd.it/zs58s9thoyx61.png?width=380&format=png&auto=webp&s=dbeacc76fc214a130d7e508bbc1871089f66b651)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
PART 3 : Elliot Wave Theory
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
In his latest upload titled [THE MOASS IS COMING](https://youtu.be/riDSUjSdixA?t=199) pro trader Trading Sciences explain why he thinks we are in complexe correction in regards to the Elliot Waves and gives possible scenarios as to where our beloved stock could land in the next few months, but he seems conviced that a price between 800$-2100$ is a possibility in the near future. This seems to in sync with my theory about our trendline, where over a few months the stonk will just slowly rise up despite hedge funds best effort to keep it down.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
[800$+++ Target price](https://preview.redd.it/gd9el5d1ryx61.png?width=1218&format=png&auto=webp&s=8d952d148d7e3e93b68f5b4a48f4c140cce21f6c)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
PART 4 : Options / Gamma Squeeze / MOASS
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
As far as Options goes nothing has really changed since my last post, things are still looking super bullish. Here's why; From 200$ up, Hedgies are massively exposed due to the ammount of synthetics shorts and the insane number of call options at the 200/300/400 and 800 strike price. As of right now Gamestop has a *40%* chance of trading above 800$ in july. Explanation in the [video](https://youtu.be/riDSUjSdixA?t=629) starts at 10:30.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
<https://preview.redd.it/cab1v2i4vyx61.jpg?width=632&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=cc219b5c647a9bf31875ab672c821bfb9eadce95>
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
TLDR : BUY + HOLD and vote !!!! , no but seriously all you have to do at this point and wait for the inevitable to happen I strongly believe that very soon Gamestop will break out. I will personally buy more in a few weeks and consolidate my xx @ 150. In regards to all the information in this DD, I believe we've been Bullish and on our way to the moon ever since DFV last tweet, he knew. Love you all and I hope you enjoy this post.
|
@ -0,0 +1,132 @@
|
|||||||
|
wen moon IV : Twist of Fate (Psychological analysis/TA/Price Prediction)
|
||||||
|
========================================================================
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
| Author | Source |
|
||||||
|
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||||
|
| [u/MOSfriedeggs](https://www.reddit.com/user/MOSfriedeggs/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/njdu1z/wen_moon_iv_twist_of_fate_psychological/) |
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
---
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
[DD 👨🔬](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22DD%20%F0%9F%91%A8%E2%80%8D%F0%9F%94%AC%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Greetings 🦍, hope you all had a nice week-end. In this DD I will give you my opinion on the current FUD situation regarding our favorite stock, aswell as my price prediction and target based on my own due diligence and research. I've also included TA from [Tradespotting](https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCI24I7XHA2yY4Fs-pVmplpA) and [Trading Sciences](https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCuSZPMtuCptWvnC7fGCzzjw) who are in my opinion knowledgable traders with different opinions and methods. As always everything will be a simple as possible to understand and straight to the point.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Part 1 : It's impossible, GIVE UP !
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
[](https://preview.redd.it/wnm490pzmw071.png?width=640&format=png&auto=webp&s=edbd1e04fabd09f713939abbe3533131487dd605)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Naysayers : one who denies, refuses, opposes, or is skeptical or cynical about something, there are always naysayers who say it can't be done.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
As of today the narrative toward us has not changed, as we grow in numbers and as our POSITIONS increase, so does the hate we receive. it's not that they care about your investment or your money. They would just fucking hate to see you succeed and come out on the side winning of a twist of fate.\
|
||||||
|
🎲
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
They talk alot, and I mean alot of games for people who can't even put(S) their money where their mouth is. Pay no mind to these backseat paper handed investors, the plan has never changed and will never change. BUY + HODL. 🚀
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
For your sake don't listen to people who have no stake in the game, trust yourself and your intuition/DD. If you decide to buy/sell do it on your own accord, don't listen to me or anybody. If you need the capital don't starve yourself to death, hold what you can only .
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
*Let me put it this way, if you are extremly over leveraged or in a bad spot fiancialy, their propaganda will be that much effective. I'm currently holding XX because I can't afford more and that is perfectly fine with me.*
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
We need hype, we need STRONG APES. Personally I will NEVER EVER give up on my shares until the price is right and I will add slowly to my position every two weeks, and in due time we will we take everything they have stolen from us with their fraud, we will take the company and the jobs they tried to erase to the fucking MOON.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Slow and steady wins the race 🐢
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
*It was never be going an easy fight going up agaisnt these people but i'm proud of everyone single one of you.*
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
To conclude my introduction and transition into my next segment, I will leave you with this absolute slapper of a [speech](https://youtu.be/qW2hjhN3mZs?t=69) by Tradespotting ;
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
<https://youtu.be/qW2hjhN3mZs?t=69> (direct Youtube link)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Part 2 : Twist Of Fate (Historical Volatility TA by Tradespotting)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Historical volatility (HV) is a statistical measure of the [dispersion](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/dispersion.asp) of returns for a given security or [market index](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/m/marketindex.asp) over a given period of time. Generally, this measure is calculated by determining the average deviation from the [average price](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/a/averageprice.asp) of a financial instrument in the given time period. Using [standard deviation](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/standarddeviation.asp) is the most common, but not the only, way to calculate historical volatility. The higher the historical volatility value, the riskier the security. However, that is not necessarily a bad result as risk works both ways---bullish and bearish.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Source : <https://www.investopedia.com/terms/h/historicalvolatility.asp>
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
This signal went off last year around July , it's very rare that it goes off.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
The last time it happened it took the price UP 100%.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
[](https://preview.redd.it/fndcaitlow071.png?width=845&format=png&auto=webp&s=f3d41c325002cf149f7b31ed88c41202cfa3e5e6)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
HV signal going off (summer 2020)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
[](https://preview.redd.it/lx9rk0vtow071.png?width=458&format=png&auto=webp&s=fe7819278fa8fe63bab7561c11c458d919480bb6)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
HV signal going off again (spring/summer 2021)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Shout-out to Tradespotting for his awesome speech and finding out about this indicator.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
You can watch the first 13 minutes of this [video](https://youtu.be/4Y9dTCr98xY?t=60) for **in depth explanations.**
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
<https://youtu.be/4Y9dTCr98xY?t=655> (direct Youtube link)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
*''One way or another a move is coming, and this move is gonna blow people socks off''*
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Part 3 : MOAW : Mother Of All Wedges (revisited)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
The first day we broke out of the MOAW GME plunged, in my opinion this was done on purpose to attack investor psychologically (HO NO ! It's breaking on the downside )
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Nevertheless ever since that day we've been on a run, because guess what ? None of you beautiful APES bought their bluff . The MOAW ended up being a self fullfiling prophecy confirming our bullish momentum.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
[](https://preview.redd.it/e7ts0eqjpw071.png?width=470&format=png&auto=webp&s=4037fdad82057c30431cd8b20c9bce508f2e4d5b)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
GME breaking out the MOAW on the upside.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Part 4 : MACDaddy II
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
We just had the MACD turn green again. This alone is not a guarantee by any mean as a proof of that the last time it occured it ended up being a fake breakout.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Will it be different this time ? No way to tell for sure, but it's definetly something to keep an eye on and as long as GME remain above 173$ we are BULLISH.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Shorts don't want us past the 188$ level because historically they tend to lose control on the price action.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
[](https://preview.redd.it/3ihxam40qw071.png?width=568&format=png&auto=webp&s=c518ad9c6eb92a3fb587931b694ec2134a717eca)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
MACD turning gree again, hopefully this time we see a strong move.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
[](https://preview.redd.it/ccji611hqw071.png?width=851&format=png&auto=webp&s=a69ff20b73a56c6252ee734ac7d42339f2d90f2d)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Will we break out above 188$ next week ?
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Part 4 : Elliot Waves and Fibonnacies (TA by Trading Sciences)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
What is Elliot Waves Theory ? <https://www.investopedia.com/terms/e/elliottwavetheory.asp>
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
What are Fibs (Fibonnaci retracement) ? <https://www.investopedia.com/terms/f/fibonacciretracement.asp>
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
I'm not the biggest fan of Elliot Waves but I think it's something worth talking about ,and also something we can look back on afterward to see how accurate it ended up being.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
As far as fibs are concerned they highlight very strategic level (Historically) on GME that Hedgies tend to look at.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
anything between the 0.38 and 0.5 (230$ - 280$) is what you could call the lava zone for them (MARGIN CALLS 📞)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
[](https://preview.redd.it/b652z5eisw071.png?width=710&format=png&auto=webp&s=600240009b5b1b2d0d739c6af6dc2ce21981b22e)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Elliot Waves theory future prediction in relation to Fibs retreacement
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
[](https://preview.redd.it/y23gfpp4ww071.png?width=1220&format=png&auto=webp&s=62da1d1297fff1ae4eac02d88e794548771d9b39)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Elliot Wave in relationship with the HV indicator I mentioned earlier.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
According to Elliot Waves we should be hitting 195$ next week then get rejected back to our current level only to make a HUGE move up to our previous high (500$+) around the mid July. Get rejected once more to the 200's to finally gap up 🚀 and start squeezing in September/November.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
On the second picture you will see that the indicator shown in Part II (HV) seem to go hand in hand with Elliot Waves theory, this is why I like to use different sources and analyst to confirm my bias.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
*Elliot Wave theory TA Trading Sciences explain why his medium term price target for GameStop is 800$+ and how we will reach it. **IN DEPTH***\
|
||||||
|
<https://youtu.be/pue9tFpjRYk?t=95> (Direct Youtube link)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Final part: Price prediction, TLDR and conclusion
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
My price target for GME 2021 :
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
June : 188 - 220$
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
July : 220$ - 300$
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
August : 300 - 500$
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
September/November/December : 500$ - 800$++++ (Gamme Squeeze into Short Squeeze)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
TLDR : BUY + HODL + vote. Do not invest more than you can afford to lose otherwise FUD becomes effective, look out for your brother and sister apes. This is my own opinion based on my own DD, not financial advice. Expect volatility and strong moves very soon on GME. If you chose to interact with shills do it in the mindset that they are not Nostradamus and can't predict the future more than you do, they just have a bearish 🐻 bias.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
GME TO THE MOON 🚀
|
@ -0,0 +1,96 @@
|
|||||||
|
Wen Moon 5 : Ascension (TA/Elliot Waves/Wyckoff/Price Prediction)
|
||||||
|
=================================================================
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
| Author | Source |
|
||||||
|
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||||
|
| [u/MOSfriedeggs](https://www.reddit.com/user/MOSfriedeggs/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nns1um/wen_moon_5_ascension_taelliot_waveswyckoffprice/) |
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
---
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
[DD 👨🔬](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22DD%20%F0%9F%91%A8%E2%80%8D%F0%9F%94%AC%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Greetings once again 🦍 , what a week it has been, I hope your tits are as jacked as mine . Once again we achieved what they said couldn't be done, smashing expectations resulting in [Millions of $ lost by short sellers.](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-05-26/gamestop-and-amc-s-wednesday-rally-hand-shorts-673-million-loss) This long week-end is the perfect opportunity to regroup, re-focus and prepare ourselves for the what is coming. It's okay to be feel confident and be happy about our results but like the late great Kobe Bryant said *''Job's not done''.*
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
If you missed out on the action, we opened the week at *180$ bulldozing trought sell walls and closing at 222$ on friday after a brutal short attack.* A truly desperate move by short sellers and market makers to prevent the massive amount of 250$ Calls to finish ITM (In the money) . This would have been a disaster, if 🦍 didn't HOLD and had stop losses set up. Not only did we mitigate the crash but we landed in a perfect spot for next week buyers, finishing the week UP 40$ (+25,57%).
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
We also completed Wave 1 of Elliot, heading into Wave 2 next week.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
[](https://preview.redd.it/iq6lbt5rr2271.png?width=800&format=png&auto=webp&s=7b0f8b8751feffa92f99b9c4c55d7062e1f76a61)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Friday short attack (organic price movement lol)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
[](https://preview.redd.it/9i5ewz14u2271.png?width=873&format=png&auto=webp&s=700cd93cf4fdf07ecef6bf532f1bbd8b3b093cd6)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
OOF ! What a week for GameStop! UP 40$ (+25,57%) with a high of 268$.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
ASCENSION : Technical Analysis
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
*1\. Fibonnaci Retreacement + Elliot Waves*
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
We completed Wave 1 of Elliot with a high of 268.80$ (BULLISH), right now we are looking for Wave 2meaning we are looking for a a retreacement (low) between 218$ - 187$, once we find that low we will bounce back up, the higher is our low the crazier the bounce back will be. In my analysis I used the worst case scenario of 187$ish as I like to stay conservative with numbers. To give you a good perspective here's what the next move could look like. Using Fibonnaci Extension we can estimate what the next move is gonna be (it's actually insane) but see for yourself on the second picture.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
[](https://preview.redd.it/4ue5w7w8y2271.png?width=767&format=png&auto=webp&s=db618e610b24ed1f6a20550ab59ac6f464d02789)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Wave 1 Completed, Wave 2 in completion and Wave 3 is 🚀
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
[](https://preview.redd.it/ouyc75g703271.png?width=850&format=png&auto=webp&s=5a9459856f558b9ca26650cc41d5770bf21d53f7)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Wave 3 is gonna blow people socks off ( 300 - 780$ )
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
2\. When to Buy The Dip (Swim with with Wales)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
This part really concerns X,XX APES more than others because some of you might want to buy a few more times before we rocket and it get too expensive. Perfectly understandable, so I will give you the levels to buy. Keep in mind long 🐳 know these level and they will buy aswell. As small fishes we wanna swim alongside them and let them carry us to our destination. You don't want to miss these prices simply because you might never see them again. 🐳
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
You could set alarm at these prices and be ready to buy when it hits, keep in mind it could very well bounce monday at opening or friday at close, there's no way to know for sure when wave 2 will be completed, just keep these prices in mind. 187$ would be an insane snipe as I believe 180$ is the floor, 237ish$ is your LAST CHANCE. don't miss out !!!! 187$ - 203$ - 217$ - 237$.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
[](https://preview.redd.it/rcl9fpfu33271.png?width=852&format=png&auto=webp&s=e968b7aaf9f3d98892740183c3535967668bb754)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
187$ - 203$ - 217$ - 237$
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
3\. Long Ladder Attack (Stairway to heaven) / HV (180$ is the new Floor)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
I know this term doesn't really exist but I just wanted to call it that way for lack of a better one, basically it's just a staircase to andromeda with every candle being bigger and gaining more momentum and volume due to short covering. It could start looking something like this from the monthly view. I think this is were we are heading, straight to the moon. Looking at it long term make it seem way more feasible and less crazy, just remember the upside is limitless. It's also in my believe that anything above 500$ is GAME OVER.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
[](https://preview.redd.it/v37pepa573271.png?width=847&format=png&auto=webp&s=0b08e596c0cd2b78b01baff3f331a7fd2e31f254)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
The staircase to Andromeda
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Regarding (HV)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
*Historical volatility (**HV**) is a statistical measure of the dispersion of returns for a given security or market index over a given period of time. Generally, this measure is calculated by determining the average deviation from the average price of a financial instrument in the given time period*.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
This is very rare signal, and I touched on it my briefly in my [last DD](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/njdu1z/wen_moon_iv_twist_of_fate_psychological/), it is in my understanding that once this signal is given before a period of volatility these prices are never seen again. It was given once in July 2020 before the initial run up in January and has been given again in previous weeks. Meaning we are probably looking at another huge gap up but this time RH won't be able to shut it down.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Shoot out to youtuber [Tradespotting](https://youtu.be/4Y9dTCr98xY?t=200) for figuring this one out.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
[](https://preview.redd.it/r4778c17c3271.png?width=822&format=png&auto=webp&s=99c09e2bbd82e0c19035c1f93eba4973530e4f1a)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
VOLATILITY INCOMING 180$ is our launching pad 🚀
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
if you want to read on Wyckoff and what could possibly be the last possible bearish thesis regarding GME follow this link. IMO this isn't a big deal but it's worth checking out regardless.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
<https://school.stockcharts.com/doku.php?id=market_analysis:the_wyckoff_method>
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Part 3 : TLDR + Price Prediction + Wen dip ?
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
BUY + HODL + VOTE 🚀 what else can be said ? You guys are amazing ! Hold on tight we are about to MOON 🌙 hedgies are fucked beyond comprehension. If you want to buy more do it quickly because these low prices won't be here much longer.Much love and a big shout out to this community
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
GG WP for this week
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
❤️
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
If you want to buy the dips these are the best prices I found using Fibonaccis;
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Updated entry points for GME 2021 :
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
187$ (BEST) - 203$ - 217$ - 237$ (LAST CALL)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Updated price target for GME 2021 :
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
June : 188 - 260+ (strong resistance at 250)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
July : 260 (strong resistance at 250) + - 300+
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
August : 300+ - 500$ (huge battle)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
September : 500$ (huge battle) - ♾ $ (GG)
|
@ -0,0 +1,105 @@
|
|||||||
|
wen moon 6 : The Return of the Cat (Recap/TA/Price Prediction/Entries)
|
||||||
|
======================================================================
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
| Author | Source |
|
||||||
|
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||||
|
| [u/MOSfriedeggs](https://www.reddit.com/user/MOSfriedeggs/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nt8tir/wen_moon_6_the_return_of_the_cat_recaptaprice/) |
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
---
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
[DD 👨🔬](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22DD%20%F0%9F%91%A8%E2%80%8D%F0%9F%94%AC%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Greeting 🦍 ! What an awesome surprise we had with the return of DFV 🐱 his meme game is still on point and it feels great to know he's still with us. Amazing week overall for us in term of price action. As far as news nothing too crazy except the infamous [freudian slip](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Freudian_slip) from Ms. Lee confirming what all apes around the world already knew. Sit back grab a drink and let me guide you through what's coming up next week for us. Again this doesn't take into account 6/9 or other possible future announcements as it's impossible to predict the effect they would have on people.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
In the *TLDR* you will find my *TIERLIST* of entries for this week aswell as my price prediction for the future, those have remained mostly unchanged as I still feel like our pace is pretty much the same. 🚀
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
[](https://preview.redd.it/uzlpt3pmui371.png?width=328&format=png&auto=webp&s=41d8e16dafcc3aeb47d6ba014014ab42e283e5cf)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
HE'S BACK !!!! 🐱
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Part 1 : Weekly Recap
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
After a long week-end everybody was excited for opening of the casino and not only did we get an awesome week, we got a long awaited DFV tweet on tuesday.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
We took the most bullish path into the strong move I predicted last week, kissing 294$ in what seemed like an unstopabble thrust , until an absolute BRUH MOMENT put a screeching STOP to our momentum when it was clear APES were in total control. If you saw what happened live it almost seemed unreal. *AMC* halt *and we began what seemed like a clear move to 300$+ only to be shutdown a second before.* It was very nasty to watch, but on a positive note it was a pure FLEX from $GME. The rest of the week was pretty quiet and friday ended up being like every friday (a slow bleed) by market makers to stop as many Call Options to go BRRRR$$.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Nevertheless it was an epic week for the most part, proud of all of you APES STILL BUYING AND HODLING !!!! 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
[](https://preview.redd.it/m4y6wlyevi371.png?width=1016&format=png&auto=webp&s=66ccf7ac1f0dba3defd622b8fdefd71e0cd9301c)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Higher highs lower lows , PERFECT !!!
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
[](https://preview.redd.it/jlbbs5ndvi371.png?width=174&format=png&auto=webp&s=abcc159f9ce630cf90d5ad0efe18210380b3678d)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
🚀 294$
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
[](https://preview.redd.it/ic5qz6ltxi371.jpg?width=400&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=87f64fa2f79a49ee66548a896abacd2882975dff)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
NAKED SHORT , YAH !!!
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Part 2 : Trend / Elliot Waves / Fibonaccis
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
The higher highs and lower lows we are setting on the current trending move looks very good and healthy, not much to say about that except to watch carefully if this continue to develop into next week, if we remain above 240$ for the rest of next week consider us extremly bullish.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Last week I talked about Elliot Waves and how we would dip a bit an then our next move would be fucking amazing and it was IMO taking us all the way from 226$ to nearly 300$ in a short trading week. In believe we completed wave 1 - 2 - 3 this week and possibly 4, this will be confirmed very soon. Don't forget 6/9 although hard to quantify, might have very positive effect on the price action.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Below you will find crayon drawings with all my scenarios. I used fibs to give me more accurate price target and levels to watch for.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
[](https://preview.redd.it/05gzppikyi371.png?width=778&format=png&auto=webp&s=e26cc22cb41fd0501bd854698a69057d17bc2b06)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Last week prediction, things turned out even more BOOLISH than I thought.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
[](https://preview.redd.it/ufq60x34zi371.png?width=1031&format=png&auto=webp&s=89f27a7a7bf96e5e71418d653fe4540dc78e21c6)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
My favorite scenario; a bounce of that .618 Fib from this week move up, straight into the 5th wave reaching 300$+++
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
[](https://preview.redd.it/es8xla8ezi371.png?width=1005&format=png&auto=webp&s=21ac74f44fcd8fd1f0d5d0f2ae5babf0062cf0b8)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Possible 290+$ EOW ? 390ISH$ is the target nevertheless .
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
[](https://preview.redd.it/j7ua6fym1j371.png?width=784&format=png&auto=webp&s=1e5e9b9f5b9cb4c05d46fc5fde35e2d72a539040)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
This scenario isn't as bullish but we could end up catching ourselves lower and bounce off 235$ or even as low as 220 into 300$+++. STILL STUNNING 🚀
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
NEVER FORGET, WEN IN DOUBT ZOOM OUT O_O
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
[](https://preview.redd.it/vkejg23s8j371.png?width=642&format=png&auto=webp&s=e4687b945bd6b5628842b1a14a62972d4f7b0a11)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
FUCK I LOVE THIS STONK
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Part 3 : TLDR , Price Prediction and Entry level.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
TLDR :\
|
||||||
|
Wanted to keep things as brief as possible in this edition because next week is right around the corner and I don't want to speculate too much since 6/9 (lul) good or bad will most def. have an impact on the stonk. But nevertheless I still think we will start trading near 300$ very very soon.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Expect more of the same by hedgies, but it's getting harder and harder for them to short us. Because make no mistake if they could they would take us back to 118$ no doubt (STILL GOT PTSD FROM THAT DAY)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
AS ALWAYS BUY + HODL 🦍
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
I would tell you to vote but.. if you havent by now WTF ???
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Can't wait for the vote count to be released. O_O
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
HYPED UP TO THE MAXIMUM LFG
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Best entry point for next week :
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
~~187$~~ ~~(unlikely)~~ MUST BUY !!!!!!!
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
220-227$ (God tier)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
237$ (Decent if available)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
245 - 250 $ (if you are impatient or just want to buy now ) -
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
265$-275$ (If it starts ripping)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Updated price target for GME 2021 :
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
June : 220 - 260+ (strong resistance at 250)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
July : 280 - 350+ (Picking up some APES along the way)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
August : 350+ - 500$ (This is where they will use the aces up their sleeve)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
September : 500$ (huge battle) - ♾ INFINITY $ (GG REKT)
|
@ -0,0 +1,169 @@
|
|||||||
|
wen moon 7 : The Show Must Go On (Earnings/TA/Prices+Entries)
|
||||||
|
=============================================================
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
| Author | Source |
|
||||||
|
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||||
|
| [u/MOSfriedeggs](https://www.reddit.com/user/MOSfriedeggs/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nx3wjr/wen_moon_7_the_show_must_go_on/) |
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
---
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
[DD 👨🔬](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22DD%20%F0%9F%91%A8%E2%80%8D%F0%9F%94%AC%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Greetings to all APES from around the 🌎🚀 in light of the recent events regarding price action and the massive FUD campaign orchestrated agaisnt us by the legacy media and shills, I have decided to post this DD ahead of schedual to try and make people less prone to FUD by taking the focus away from emotions back the to the numbers and the current trajectory we are on at the moment. The more detached we stay from our emotions in trading the better IMO. Shills want you to be emotional, they want you to feel isolated and down, I will explain how they do it and how to avoid falling into their trap. In this DD I've also included alot of TA because if there's one thing I will always trust, it's my tools. The rest is noise and B.S.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
PART 1 : FUD CAMPAIGN + 5M share offering ATM
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
*FUD CAMPAIGN*
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
One of the oldest trick in the book from Wallstreet and their agents is to dip the price on earnings day, not only for GME but for alot of other stock aswell. Earnings create alot of FUD in some investors over a short period of time and they love to capitalize on that for their own personal agenda. They will have their articles ready, massively short the stock and will have shills spread disinformation online. Yesterday we saw this textbook play unfold in front of our eyes.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
I want you to pay attention to the graph below these two FUD articles , you will see that Gamestop diped on every (E) day because of manipulation and paper handed bitches, only to come back stronger afterward. Again, toying with people emotions on the short term to get them to panic. Stock price improved in between every earning why would it be different this time ?
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
[](https://preview.redd.it/glfsljdjyi471.png?width=706&format=png&auto=webp&s=2455b1b761f789d6decce2cb764b0296ea69fa0e)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
I'm sure this is what happened
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
[](https://preview.redd.it/twdd8pdhyi471.png?width=681&format=png&auto=webp&s=4521bbb9ee6b1ef0da7acb0ccb391e2be0edd6e5)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
420K Followers on SS alone.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
[](https://preview.redd.it/6u2livxc0j471.png?width=674&format=png&auto=webp&s=c44a7154a869848e81bde56934c6255e8858f647)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Stock price improved in between every earning why would it be different this time ? Especially with the new team we've got at GME.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
*5M share offering ATM*
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Shills pushed the narrative that this was bad for us, I want you to listen to this amazing [video](https://youtu.be/etuR9yOyE_s?t=60) by Tradespotting where he debunks that narrative completly. Brilliant, if you are feeling worried about those 5M shares watch the video.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Direct link :
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
<https://youtu.be/etuR9yOyE_s?t=60>
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
[](https://preview.redd.it/p6fmynu01j471.png?width=731&format=png&auto=webp&s=5404cdb6e567d4431150bea7cb5df182a7e85628)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
It's over, pack it up guys.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
PART 2 : WEN IN DOUBT ZOOM OUT + exponential floor tracking chart (credit : [u/JTH1](https://www.reddit.com/u/JTH1/))
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Another strategy used by shills and other clowns hiding in the deepest corner of the meltdown subreddit will be to Zoom-in and use stupid line charts to make you doubtful.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
*''See bagholders GME is going down, sell now before you lose everything''*
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
They want you to think about today's drop and fuck with your emotions , they want you to forget this incredible period of accumulation, the incredible and growing community of APES, the complete overhaul of the company, DFV still holding with us, and real TA like what i'm about to show you . We will never ever give up, we buy and we hodl the plan hasn't changed. 🚀
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
*''it's a failing brick and mortar stock and the stock going back to 40$''*
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
come again f*** head I haven't heard this one before.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
[](https://preview.redd.it/i9etzlfv4j471.png?width=460&format=png&auto=webp&s=cc4c3a1984a586db9e520194c0e576cfce3fee66)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Well well well, I wonder what's behind 350$.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
William O'Neil's Cup with Handle is a bullish continuation pattern that marks a consolidation period followed by a breakout. ... The cup forms after an advance and looks like a bowl or rounding bottom 👇👇👇👇👇👇👇👇👇👇👇👇👇👇👇👇👇👇👇👇👇👇👇👇👇👇👇👇👇👇👇👇👇👇👇👇👇👇👇👇👇👇👇👇
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
[](https://preview.redd.it/00jjf8jh5j471.jpg?width=677&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=089672920eaafde2fc02f4ca51aa8a1e8befb95a)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Classic Cup and handle
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
[](https://preview.redd.it/ieyyo7555j471.png?width=689&format=png&auto=webp&s=da349a37b61afce9470fbeda64972ffc6b59ac99)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Who doesn't like a cup of joe in the morning. BULLISH !
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
[](https://preview.redd.it/tjup54mx1j471.png?width=1664&format=png&auto=webp&s=227767c33014ab42b7570f5ee3e114100f81a4a0)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Ask yourself this question, did today really mattered in the grand scheme of things ?
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
PART 3 : Fibonaccis
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
In the section below you will find historical fibs from GME, it's crazy how accurately it predicted the future, this is one of my favorite tool to use to see what might happen next with the price action. Because of all the people who use the Fibonacci tool, those levels become self-fulfilling.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
*See for yourself.*
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Retracement :
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Fibonacci retracement levels are horizontal lines that indicate the possible support and resistance levels where price could potentially reverse direction.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Pay attention to this pattern repeating itself over and over on GME , every time there's a major dip we bounce of the .5 fib and use the subsequent .236/.382 as our support and we consolidate there, this is bullish.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
*All time high -*
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
[](https://preview.redd.it/d6jkfae26j471.png?width=838&format=png&auto=webp&s=ef554f378d3c87f84a300dd0c96cc62dbbf5317d)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Price bounced off the .5 from our all time high ! .236 has become an amazing support level for us, impossible to break for the hedgies.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
*MARCH -*
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
[](https://preview.redd.it/577m0mr17j471.png?width=784&format=png&auto=webp&s=304e8887ca4b01f5f84f1e147432bd178c6cfd3e)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
.5 Bounce , using .236 and .382 as support
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
June -
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
[](https://preview.redd.it/0zyu83rg8j471.png?width=1164&format=png&auto=webp&s=c82b94090a48951d0201ce52a2119222e1f2cf99)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Once again price bounced off the .5 and will try to break out the prior .233 / .382 support.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Now that have identified our lows lets look at our future highs using the extension tool.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Fibonaccis Extention
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Fibonacci extensions are a tool that traders can use to establish or estimate how far a price may travel after a retracement is finished.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
All time -
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
*The ideal extension from our all time is somewhere between 500 - 900$ I will demonstrate how it will happen in the next section using Elliot Wave.*
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
[](https://preview.redd.it/vbrv2br69j471.png?width=983&format=png&auto=webp&s=b7f26d83b6b64be57b9cc33905c03ea1c51f203b)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
This is where GME is going next 500+ - 800+$, since we broke the .236 on our move up reaching the .618 seems inevitable to me.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
JUNE
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
*Same logic applies here, once we break the .236 we will get a higher high between the .5 / .618 fib a.k.a 350+$*
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
[](https://preview.redd.it/mqagm1599j471.png?width=1178&format=png&auto=webp&s=8b19187cb23cc56532e038ff8b0950b836242e56)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Same logic apply to our latest move up , we pull back and then bounce back.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Part 3 : ELLIOT WAVE
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
I've talked alot about Elliot wave in my previous DD, I like this theory even thought it's more useful to daytrader it can help us see the path ahead. On the first picture you will see the prediction made last week by Youtuber Trading Sciences, as you can see he was pretty close. The green lines show the actual updated price.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
On the second frame you will my own prediction with the updated price of today.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Wave 1 (completed) 135 - 344 - Wave 2 (completed) 344 - 211 - Wave 3 (forming) 211 - 483 - Wave 4 (prediction) 344 - 800$
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
[](https://preview.redd.it/6ggx4evvaj471.png?width=582&format=png&auto=webp&s=c28e4dadd75bd529b723569707550608f71f9495)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Prediction made last week by Trading Sciences, pretty accurate.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
[](https://preview.redd.it/8bvug8e8bj471.png?width=961&format=png&auto=webp&s=3f1fcfc12b7d3ef77d4e9ee062e80517c0283e58)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Look out Ken, the rocket is coming your way
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Part 4 : TLDR , Price Prediction and Entry level.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Hope I've given you a few wrinkles with this one.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Buy + HODL ignore the noise, focus on the numbers and never forget we are an ever growing global community full of loving people who got each other's back. 🚀🦧\
|
||||||
|
APES STRONG TOGHETER.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Shills will never divide us.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Best entry point for next week : 🚀
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Anything below 250$/260$ is a decent buy
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
anything below 220$ is s+ tier
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
if push comes to shove anything below 200$ is god tier.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
*Updated price target for GME 2021 :* 🚀
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
June : -220 - 350 (Max)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
July : 280 - 350+ (Epic Battle for 350$)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
August : 350+ - 500 (Huge battle)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
September : 500 (huge battle) - ♾ INFINITY $ (GG REKT)
|
@ -0,0 +1,157 @@
|
|||||||
|
wen moon 8 : To infinity and beyond (TA/MOASS/Prices+Entries)
|
||||||
|
=============================================================
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
| Author | Source |
|
||||||
|
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||||
|
| [u/MOSfriedeggs](https://www.reddit.com/user/MOSfriedeggs/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/o3qqqj/wen_moon_8_to_infinity_and_beyond/) |
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
---
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
[DD 👨🔬](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22DD%20%F0%9F%91%A8%E2%80%8D%F0%9F%94%AC%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
🌎🚀
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
INTRO :
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
As I was doing my usual end of the week technical analysis in preparation for my weekly DD I believe I've finally put all the pieces of the puzzle togheter. I could have called this ''ENDGAME'' or whatever but I don't think we are there just yet.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
I also want to manage people's expectation as this is only my opinion and technical analysis**, not financial advice** or a guarantee by any mean, still I think it's extremely telling of what's to come next.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
When you combine this information with Criand's latest [DD](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/o0scoy/the_bigger_short_how_2008_is_repeating_at_a_much/) and dentisttft T+35 [theory](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/o155a6/t35_is_the_one_true_cycle_evidence_to_back_my/) the information and data i'm about to show you becomes an inevitability and a self fulfiling prophecy.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
What is my theory ? 🧠
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
*I BELIEVE GME is on the verge of making another spectacular parabolic move whiping out the shorts*\
|
||||||
|
*and in the process, bringing us into tendieland. Sit back relax and prepare yourself for take off !* 🚀
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
[](https://preview.redd.it/sjwwftsa2a671.jpg?width=2753&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=12973d659dabe61f7d1f215ea81cdac3249d1a26)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
BUCKLE UP !
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
PART 1 : Technical Analysis
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
MACD ( Moving Average Convergence Divergence )
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
I believe by the end of this week / beggining of next week, the MACD is gonna crossover signaling the end of a very weak downtrend. When looking at the past we can see that GME MACD doesn't really like to stay solid red for more than 5 days and has been very bullish for a long time now.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Keep in mind that it is a very popular indicator used by many traders and will spark interest in people who were waiting to get in.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
[](https://preview.redd.it/tb3kvfee6a671.png?width=409&format=png&auto=webp&s=d08713fe3562390ebbe60c9d0023025f41895b61)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
MACD 🖍️
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
(*RSI*) *Relative Strength Index*
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
As you can see on the picture below, $GME always bounces of the 39 to cross 50 (neutral) and finally 70 (overbought) .
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
What does this mean ?
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
No one is selling on downtrend except a few paper hands and daytraders, so the dip are mostly artificial and weak the stock always bounces back and create a new floor for itself.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
I think we will get a little dip before exploding again like we always do as you can see GME wants to\
|
||||||
|
break 350$ so bad, but it is being artificially kept down.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
[](https://preview.redd.it/xmw6nz6g8a671.png?width=564&format=png&auto=webp&s=f7b8b06652162398a4bf5d3f7f366b9a148f06ac)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
RSI 🖍️ Past vs Future
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Volume
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
*Trading volume* is a measure of how much of a given financial asset has *traded* in a period of time.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
The volume we are seeing now is very similar to the kind of volume we saw before things really started to pick up, by itself it doesn't say much but when you tie it up with the rest of indicators it paints a clearer picture.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
[](https://preview.redd.it/dkdskk3g9a671.png?width=843&format=png&auto=webp&s=8d7cf53e4ee8a132fa66bc780980b057f598cf9a)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Volume is similar to pre-january run up 🚀
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Uptrend
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
"What happens when an unstoppable force meets an immovable object?
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
I guess we will find out pretty soon, but I think this resistance is about to be broken the same way it was broken back in january, as you can see below the candlestick trend is very similar to the pre-january run up.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
[](https://preview.redd.it/tm515t3aaa671.png?width=666&format=png&auto=webp&s=b705b1ee0c4bf10dc39c1a19ec821fe9eef5abec)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
The irresistible force paradox
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
FIBONACCI
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
is a naturally occurring pattern.\
|
||||||
|
The golden ratio (1.618) describes predictable patterns on everything from atoms to huge stars in the sky. The ratio is derived from something called the Fibonacci sequence. The Fibonacci Sequence is a peculiar series of numbers from classical mathematics that has found applications in advanced mathematics, nature, statistics, computer science,
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Retreacement :
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Fibonacci Retracements are ratios used to identify potential reversal levels
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Retracements in the 38.2%-50% range would be considered moderate.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
[](https://preview.redd.it/qdy5nkj9ca671.png?width=532&format=png&auto=webp&s=4650224e4a44ce625f957b93fadf3156cfc8e9ae)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
A retreacement to .5 is B O O L I SH IMO 🚀
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Extension
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
The Fibonacci extensions show how far the next price wave could move following a pullback.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
As demonstrated below, even without the MOASS GME had the potential to reach an all-time high of 1.6M$ per share. (4.236 fib)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
in my opinion we could definetly say that MOASS officialy starts past the 4.236 fibonnaci or 1.6M$.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
As you can see once we get past 2K$ , 27K$ , 300K$ and 1.6M$ we can officialy consider we are past all reasonable and possible prices.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Don't get fooled if we reach these prices this isn't the squeeze so beware, people will most likely take profits in these area.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
[](https://preview.redd.it/6o4mc6xaca671.png?width=809&format=png&auto=webp&s=6f6fab74419d912053fd8a4b44bcdd2a40953580)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Even without MOASS $GME got insane upside potential based on fibs ($)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
ELLIOT WAVE
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
This is a scenario of what our road to margin calls could look like, I drew these quickly but if you want more information you can read this excellent [DD](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nwyj77/elliot_waves_and_gme_why_im_jacked_to_infinity/) by Elliot Wave guy himself.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
this information correlate perfectly with [Trading Sciences TA](https://youtu.be/BWNGUpy6_bI?t=70) on ELLIOT WAVE who predicted AMC's 75$ using this technique.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
JACKED !!!! 🚀
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
[](https://preview.redd.it/hy0r8a7daa671.png?width=560&format=png&auto=webp&s=2f23c0b9c4c1e935059274838e79249fef40a8f6)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Elliot Wave Theory
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
PART 2 : Road to MOASS (Putting all the pieces togheter 🧩)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
LFG !!!! 🚀 now that i've explained my theory using multiple indicators and other people DD and TA , let's put all the pieces 🧩 togheter shall we. This is my final conclusion , our road to MOASS. so if you are wondering ''Wen Moon'' this is how we could do it.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
As for when ????? I'll let you know at the very end.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Once again ; WHEN we get past 2K$ , 27K$ , 300K$ and 1.6M$ we can officialy consider we are past all reasonable and possible prices. This will be MOASS.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
As for margin 📞 ? I think it's clear the area between 350$ and 800$ is extremly sketchy for hedgies, they will do everything in their power to keep us from going there. They never covered, and they will pay.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
[](https://preview.redd.it/4t44eo8eca671.png?width=744&format=png&auto=webp&s=7dcdb6f4fee520fa5b63e45281d05dad87e02276)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Putting all the pieces togheter 🧩 MOASS BABY LFG!!!
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
PART 3 : TLDR + Entries and price prediction
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
TLDR : BUY AND HODL FOR YOUR LIFE !!!!! Honestly you could just look at the picture in PART 2 to get jacked but I recommend you read everything and try to understand, this is huge and very important information.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
BIG shout-out to everybody who contributed to the community in any way shape or form.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Best entry point for next week (21/25) : 🚀
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
197$ - GOD TIER\
|
||||||
|
207$ - Really good\
|
||||||
|
220$ - Decent\
|
||||||
|
233$ - Buy at resistance\
|
||||||
|
250+$ - If it starts to RIP
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
*Updated price target for GME 2021 :* 🚀
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
June : 197 - 300
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
July : 280 - 350+ (Epic Battle for 350$)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
August : 350+ - 500 (Fight for Margin Call ZONE) 📞
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
September / November : 400 - 800 (huge battle in margin call ZONE ) 📞 - ♾ INFINITY $ (GG REKT)
|
@ -0,0 +1,149 @@
|
|||||||
|
wen moon 9 : Astrology ► TA + Updates
|
||||||
|
=====================================
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
| Author | Source |
|
||||||
|
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||||
|
| [u/MOSfriedeggs](https://www.reddit.com/user/MOSfriedeggs/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/o92ziv/wen_moon_9_astrology_ta_updates/) |
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
---
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
[DD 👨🔬](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22DD%20%F0%9F%91%A8%E2%80%8D%F0%9F%94%AC%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
watup apes 🍌🦍 , I know last week was a boring week for the price action but as always a ton of development occured. I want to thank everyone in this community who's doing their fair share. Memes, DD, TA , Shitpost we're all contributing one way or the other. 🍌🦍
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Edit : deleted link to other sub
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
[](https://preview.redd.it/qfwk84816v771.png?width=688&format=png&auto=webp&s=c78cda1f8d2d45970c95aa63e374ddeb0e1df920)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
PART 1 : Update ( GME 🚀 VS AMC 🍿) ☕
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
*Direct link to my previous post :* <https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/o5bdhr/gme_possible_500_move_very_soon_gme_vs_amc/>
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
This is an update of this [post](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/o5bdhr/gme_possible_500_move_very_soon_gme_vs_amc/) I made last week ;
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Long story short me and other people namely Elliot Wave guy theorized that GME and AMC were following very similar patterns ever since January. The one that interest us the most is the recent cup and handle breakout by AMC, I would love to see the same thing play out on GME. As you will see on the pictures below we are only a few days away from this possible break out, if things play out like they did with AMC we could be looking at a potential 800% move up.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
FYI : There is 37,734 OPEN INT CALL OPTIONS FOR JULY 16 on the 800$ strike. 🤔🤔🤔🤔🤔🤔
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
CRAZY 🚀
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
***Nota Bene : in my previous post I gave precise dates and I now realize.. that it's frowned upon so I won't do it anymore.***
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
[](https://preview.redd.it/x3skp5985v771.png?width=724&format=png&auto=webp&s=c541b6400ae0fec7e6e8faf4bb70b0b0fee1b9fe)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
American entrepreneur William J. O'Neil defined the cup and handle (C&H) pattern in his 1988 classic, "How to Make Money in Stocks,"
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
[](https://preview.redd.it/rer9nfnc5v771.png?width=759&format=png&auto=webp&s=87425b6df16b40e464c5ec14575d4fbb2a6d7503)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
GME cup and handle possible breakout 🚀
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
[](https://preview.redd.it/dumjbfmj5v771.png?width=1267&format=png&auto=webp&s=00d6a38344038c8e11b547519ee7e9fcb6002b8d)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
GME 🚀 vs Sticky floor company head to head comparison
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Be on the lookout for a breakout on the handle part of the cup, this would create massive amount of FOMO.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
WHY you may ask ?
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Retards on WSB have also figured it out, as i'm writing a similar analysis is sitting on the front page of WSB.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
B O O L I S H 🚀 ☕
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Part 2 : Technical Analysis
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
MACD (Prediction vs Reality) ✔️
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
As predicted, the downtrend is getting weaker on the MACD, very boolish.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Soon as this baby turns green and crossover we're heading for our breakout. 🚀
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
[](https://preview.redd.it/mhowwu3m5v771.png?width=772&format=png&auto=webp&s=57095decca46962166f9c36d92a71e487be173e5)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Last week prediction vs what happened
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
RSI ✔️
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
As you can see below if we compare the strenght on the RSI and past price action we can see the zone we're in at the moment signify that pressure is building up leading to another take off from our rocket.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
With just a little bit more consolidation and fuel for our rocket we should be ready to go up again 💥
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
. ignition sequence start ...
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
AGAIN ; BOOLISH 🚀
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
[](https://preview.redd.it/7o650sin5v771.png?width=646&format=png&auto=webp&s=6c8cdb59c5f01c6b6c99b76dc3fdc41a446e597d)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Pressure is building up baby🚀🚀🚀
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
EMA (exponential moving average) 20 / 50 / 100 / 200 ✔️
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
The exponential moving average (EMA) is a technical chart indicator that tracks the price of an investment over time and that gives more weighting or importance to recent price data.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
As you can see below everything looks really good on the weekly timeframe no weird crossover or anything, very satisfying to look at,
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
On the daily timeframe we got under the 20 to worry about really as the last time that happened we only consolidated for a bit and bounced back from the 50, see for yourself on the second image.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
My verdict ; B O O L I SHHH 🚀 🍌🦍
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
[](https://preview.redd.it/otkf60lo5v771.png?width=446&format=png&auto=webp&s=792868d3aad4d2a7e92d103048c21ec17c70b714)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
WEEKLY EMA ; looking hella good :D
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
[DAILY ; looking good aswell, potential bounce off the 50 EMA (yellow line)](https://preview.redd.it/zbhypufnku771.png?width=808&format=png&auto=webp&s=77a616c2b84f4e28ea142aa20ddffe8163443792)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
[](https://preview.redd.it/2p8ijobp5v771.png?width=808&format=png&auto=webp&s=556c42958ec1d9b2a8f145f449caa3aa3c614578)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
DAILY ; looking good aswell, potential bounce off the 50 EMA (yellow line)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Fibonacci ✔️
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
In the near future those the prices you have to look out for, I expect some kind of fight at every one of those price point. Once we reclaim the 260/277$ HO IT'S ON BABY 🦍
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
ON THE SECOND FRAME YOU WILL SEE THAT TO CONSIDER WE HAVE CONFIRMED OUR BULLISH BREAKOUT WE NEED TO OPEN AND CLOSE SOMEWHERE AROUND 243 - 260 $. From there you might see crazy FOMO KICKING AND and indicators going haywire.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
[Prices to look for IN the upcoming future !!](https://preview.redd.it/a3lvwkyxlu771.png?width=490&format=png&auto=webp&s=d149496d7484c6ddb8950d0f4e5a7e539a957e57)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
[](https://preview.redd.it/5qiv9k5q5v771.png?width=490&format=png&auto=webp&s=885d7d34e4287b96d859b6e01a6a9157b5fa976d)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Prices to look for IN the upcoming future !!
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
[fibs to look for in a possible breakout](https://preview.redd.it/e5u7auiwmu771.png?width=582&format=png&auto=webp&s=4e785426dffb398a41abdc3bee69f5fe96700eb8)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
[](https://preview.redd.it/vld5j81r5v771.png?width=582&format=png&auto=webp&s=84e3338b773659f61da7f8f07dd25780b32684ea)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
fibs to look for in a possible breakout
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Uptrend (updated) ✔️
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
"What happens when an unstoppable force meets an immovable object?
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
the clash of the century, the unbreakable 350$ WALL ! Or is it realy unbreakable ????
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
🦍 OOK OOK
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
[](https://preview.redd.it/adq1ct9u5v771.png?width=757&format=png&auto=webp&s=4b09f05931d67d6d3e90a1bb393a16afb639f3b6)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
HO brother... 😎
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
[The Gameplan is still the same baby nothing changed 😎](https://preview.redd.it/ihuzwcdjou771.png?width=744&format=png&auto=webp&s=93bd3eb5e789454feca9a538db8654bfb1812cb0)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
PART 3 : TLDR + Entries and price predictionLast week was boring but I expect a bit more action this week , nothing too crazy but I'd love to see up break past 250$ for many reasons. Again Buy and HODL 🚀 is the best strategy, but it's always interesting to dive in a bit deeper IMO. Below you will find the best prices to buy at this week and my predictions for the near future.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Best entry point for next week (28/2) : 🚀
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
177$ - YOU WISH\
|
||||||
|
197$ - GOD TIER\
|
||||||
|
207$ - Really good\
|
||||||
|
224$ - Decent/ OK\
|
||||||
|
245$ - MFW if we move past this price 😎\
|
||||||
|
250+$ - I buy at every price but this isn't as optimal obviously
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
*Updated price target for GME 2021 :* 🚀
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
June : ~~197 - 300~~ ✔️
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
July : 210 - 350+ (Epic Battle for 350$)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
August : (Fight for Margin Call ZONE) 📞
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
September / November : (huge battle in margin call ZONE ) 📞 - ♾ INFINITY $ (GG REKT)
|
@ -0,0 +1,196 @@
|
|||||||
|
wen moon 10 : Endgame ■ Final TA
|
||||||
|
================================
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
| Author | Source |
|
||||||
|
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||||
|
| [u/MOSfriedeggs](https://www.reddit.com/user/MOSfriedeggs/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/od7swq/wen_moon_10_endgame_final_ta/) |
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
---
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
[DD 👨🔬](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22DD%20%F0%9F%91%A8%E2%80%8D%F0%9F%94%AC%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Hello everyone 🦍, this DD will be the last one I publish untill the squeeze hence the title Endgame. The reason is simple ; I strongly believe we are in the final stage of the battle with the crooked hedge funds and their agents.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
In my humble opinion there is no reason for me to provide more technical analysis in the near future , or perhaps evidence for a squeeze. Hundreds of DD, countless data and hours of interview with some of the most brilliant mind and expert out there should be enough to convince you that ---
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
*The things set in motion cannot be stopped.*
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
🚀
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
[](https://preview.redd.it/scy5560z62971.jpg?width=680&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=281e8a98155d94ac81294cdff04f76989c8de6ec)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
It's been one hell of a journey from DFV first YOLO post to the recent and exciting development with the company and every crazy event 🍌 that happened in between.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
I've had the time of my life sharing these DD and shitposting with you guys.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
I'm ZEN as can be and I hope everyone else is.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
at this point I think our hands are nothing but pure diamonds. 💎
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
🍻
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
*without further ado*, let's dive in...
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
PART 1 - Basic charting 🌙
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Without using any indicators whatsover and just by looking at our daily chart things seem to be progressing well.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
[u/chayse1984](https://www.reddit.com/u/chayse1984/) pointed out in his DD that GME are currently about to break out of a cup and handle while being inside of a bullish pennant.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
For my smooth 🧠 out there it means we have roughly a 66% chance of breaking out on the upside to a bare minimum of about *450$.*
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
*(measurement from the bottom to the top of the cup on the log chart).*
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
What's also interesting to note; it would bring us exactly where Elliot Wave guy told us the 3rd wave would bring us. 👨💻 *(This was also double checked by Youtuber Trading Sciences;* [Source](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mHzT5JRMQCg)*)*
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
*When two different analysis made by numerous people point in a direction it's best to assume that these speculation have a very good chance of happening for the simple fact that it plays a key factor in the psychology of trading in individuals.*
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
[](https://preview.redd.it/h1xvyqp4c2971.png?width=698&format=png&auto=webp&s=306b06d329a9869e70eba7db6bbdcfe32f3e20e7)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Chart as analyzed by chayse and myself , cup and handle insine a bullish pennant supported by a trendline.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
SOLVING THE CUP AND HANDLE
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
[](https://preview.redd.it/a5g0kt6bc2971.png?width=741&format=png&auto=webp&s=fc05fbab34daab3532572839be44ce1bccfa3ed6)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
The first thing we need to find out is how the cup and handle will play out.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
It's pretty normal for a cup and handle to retrace as much as 50% from their initial high before a blue sky breakout or in our case a trip to the moon. As illustrated below this would be the most possible scenario in my opinion, this would also trap bears causing even more buying pressure if the trend changes rapidly.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
[](https://preview.redd.it/a4uhxj7dc2971.png?width=782&format=png&auto=webp&s=118d66144f615d53d7f0002a2cb195c11fed5613)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
GME could go as low as 172$/173$ before breaking out.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
This to me is another scenario also bullish but less probable, we could see the trend reverse itself as soon as monday and we would resume our journey to the top. Such a weak downtrend would indicate that shorts and bears are now completly powerless, *they don't even believe in their own thesis anymore.*
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
If GME remains above 200$ and start to break out by the end of the week, HOLY MOLY.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
[](https://preview.redd.it/b0c2jzaec2971.png?width=767&format=png&auto=webp&s=3e79b8a76e5b1c44450c41ee48c8e7ff8ee975e2)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Hedgies are fucked
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
If you wish to understand more about Elliot Wave theory I recommend reading Elliot Wave Guy DD or watching this [video](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mHzT5JRMQCg).
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
[](https://preview.redd.it/g4njxx7ee2971.png?width=619&format=png&auto=webp&s=bfd23dfa77a134f60784811331a3208c14efa519)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Elliot Wave theory applied to GME
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Now we can put all the pieces of the puzzle togheter and it look something like this, two different technique ; same result. Very bullish but also realistic and works perfectly in accordance with William O'Neil trading strategy about the cup and handle theory and Elliot Wave theory.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
HODL 🚀
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
[](https://preview.redd.it/rbpqa4bke2971.png?width=833&format=png&auto=webp&s=a6493b2c5db7dd710900675ea97958f09ee16623)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
O'neil + Elliot theory applied to $GME
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
If this is not enough to confirm your bias check out the next section. 😎
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Part 2 - In depth T.A 🌙
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
MACD
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Downtrend is getting weaker and weaker, bears are fucked. Just give it a little more time and this baby is gonna crossover like it always did in the past, as you can see everytime is crosses-over we raise our floor a little bit.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
[](https://preview.redd.it/4ksqdy3bg2971.png?width=739&format=png&auto=webp&s=ccebebe38ad71b2ed7e0455100dbd88b0e79642a)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
MACDADDY GETTING READY TO 🌊💧🍾
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
RSI
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
RSI on GME has a tendency to bounce of the median line (GREEN) and explode back up, right now we're consolidating but as you can see it's just a matter of time until it breaks out again, we can also confirm that the current downtrend is very weak and that APES are in control.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
[](https://preview.redd.it/srx2tw6tg2971.png?width=790&format=png&auto=webp&s=165a54d289092b1b6cf209425bc64582a5217807)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Wow Kenny ! Is that the best you could do ?
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
EMA
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
*The exponential moving average (**EMA**) is a technical chart indicator that tracks the price of an investment (like a stock or commodity) over time. The* *EMA* *is a type of weighted moving average (WMA) that gives more weighting or importance to recent price data.*
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
The EMA on the weekly timeframe is looking great, the EMA on the daily timeframe reminds me of the way we traded back in march. Consolidating before a break out. Also BOOLISH LFGGGGG
|
||||||
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|
||||||
|
WEEKLY EMA
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
[](https://preview.redd.it/hz8asvf5h2971.png?width=409&format=png&auto=webp&s=d479b70b780744c94219d935f2ad2d20a158bc55)
|
||||||
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|
||||||
|
Weekly EMA looking stunning.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
[](https://preview.redd.it/d7cx9xu9h2971.png?width=409&format=png&auto=webp&s=a81aa699795398ec13cd6d4cdef0e9824175b69a)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
GME will most likely bounce off the 20 EMA on the WEEKLY and RIP
|
||||||
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|
||||||
|
DAILY EMA
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
[](https://preview.redd.it/rntb080hh2971.png?width=633&format=png&auto=webp&s=79ea9cdc301bf902223254e799ba0f70dd9e69af)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Last time we traded in between the 20/50 EMA things went crazy afterward.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
[](https://preview.redd.it/isvrvhlih2971.png?width=633&format=png&auto=webp&s=b8ab7235d4390e2bb229f7234fee1c365b1aef62)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Huu guys.. 🚀
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
VOLUME
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Well I think everyone has noticed by now that the volume is drier than the Sahara desert. But fear not, this is very similar to what happened back in July.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Low volume pullback like this are very attractive to investors as they present low risk high rewards scenario.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
In simple term FOMO will be kicking in soon, and the people who didn't buy this will be mad because it's pretty much the last chance you've got at buying GME at a some ''reasonable price''.\
|
||||||
|
I'm sure if you could bo back in time and buy at 4$ / 40$ you would go all in, don't miss out again. Because you might never see the low 200's ever.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
*Also I'd like to point out how similar the chart is looking to the previous run up to 75$ from last summer.*
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
This isn't financial advice, just common sense.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
[](https://preview.redd.it/birhh679i2971.png?width=726&format=png&auto=webp&s=553bb5556eeb011dcad21b0c9546b03ac60b2cc1)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
''awww man.. I wish I would have bought at 200$ but I wasn't sure I mean GME is a dying company on paper, right guys ? '' - Some fundamental investor
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
BOLLINGER BANDS
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
*Bollinger bands* *help determine whether prices are high or low on a relative basis. They are used in pairs, both upper and lower* *bands* *and in conjunction with a moving average.*
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
The Squeeze
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
The squeeze is the central concept of Bollinger Bands®. When the bands come close together, constricting the moving average, it is called a squeeze. A squeeze signals a period of low volatility and is considered by traders to be a potential sign of future increased volatility and possible trading opportunities.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
The superstonk is about to go BRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRR , the chart is screaming BUY ME alot of people will miss out on life changing money because ''mUh DyInG BrIcK aNd MoRtaR StorE'' .
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
[](https://preview.redd.it/39k62cqoi2971.png?width=884&format=png&auto=webp&s=21b0faa672bd57dfc8a718789e0141f866874690)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
HVP by Bali Purr (Historical Volatility Percentile)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
It's my theory that DFV and many big traders used this signal as a confirmation to buy Gamestop last summer, it rarely gives a signal so when it happens it's huge.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
it gave a signal *last month !!!!!!!* , usually it takes a few weeks to breakout add a few more weeks for volatility to reach a peak. *As we know volatility is key for us*. We broke out!!!! SO.. in a few weeks we will MOST LIKELY SEE a HUGE SPIKE in volatility A.K.A TENDIES. 🍗🍗🍗🍗
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
[](https://preview.redd.it/5kjh4l0bj2971.png?width=571&format=png&auto=webp&s=5e5d94f3a1184deaaf16b96ae9cbab23665db9c1)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
HOLY FUCKING MOLY, this is it. Cherry on top of the sundae :D
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
PART 3 : FINAL WORD AND TLDR 🌙
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
If you are doubting Techical Analysis let me give you a quote from the book *trading in the zone* by Mark Douglas :
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
*'' Individuals develop behavior patterns, and a group of individuals interacting with one another on a consistent basis form collective behavior patterns. These behaviors are observable and quantifiable and they repeat themselves with statistical reliability. -- in a sense technical analysis allow you get into the mind of the market. As a method for projecting future price movement, technical analysis as turned out to be far superior to a purely fundamental approach. '*'
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
----
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
EVERY INDICATOR IS SCREAMING BUYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYY
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Like I said in the intro I feel like everything is going as it should right now. If you are anxious or feeling fudy, just know that everything is gearing for a move that is gonna literally break the space-time continuum. 🚀
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Everything is a buy right now, EVERYTHING. We're past the point (I THINK) where we'll ever get GME at a cheap price . Buy if you can HODL if you can't.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
If I could go back in time and tell my past self to buy more at 40$ trust I would but I won't have the regret of not going all in at 200$ , I just maxed out.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
XX hodler till infinity. 🚀
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
I will see ya'll on the moon very soon. 🚀
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
~~SHILLS BTFOD~~
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
❤️\
|
||||||
|
EGGS out -
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
*EDIT : I want to thank everyone from the bottom of my heart 💖* *X to XXXX hodlers* *for all the work you guys have put in to build-up this amazing community.*
|
@ -0,0 +1,80 @@
|
|||||||
|
A European Footprint. After reading "The Sun Never Sets On Citadel -- Part 1", I looked for a footprint in Germany.
|
||||||
|
===================================================================================================================
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
| Author | Source |
|
||||||
|
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||||
|
| [u/LNhamburg](https://www.reddit.com/user/LNhamburg/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/o3c7ar/a_european_footprint_after_reading_the_sun_never/) |
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
---
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
[DD 👨🔬](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22DD%20%F0%9F%91%A8%E2%80%8D%F0%9F%94%AC%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Inspired by [u/swede_child_of_mine](https://www.reddit.com/u/swede_child_of_mine/)'s DD "The Sun Never Sets On Citadel -- Part 1" I digged into this. Finding a footprint in Germany. (DD-Link: <https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/o2xz48/the_sun_never_sets_on_citadel_part_1/>)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
It's just a footprint.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
The following are not my words. They are quotes from the linked sources. I don't add my own opinion and I'm not a financial advisor. I am just doing a brief summary of the source timeline in my own words.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
TLDR: Source Timeline
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
- 2007: Berlin Stock Exchange took a majority stake in EASDAQ NV, which operated under the name EQUIDUCT
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
- 2009: EQUIDUCT enters into strategic partnership with Citadel Securities
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
- 2012: EASDAQ adds four new members to board (3 from Citadel)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
- 2019: Tradegate takes over Berlin Stock Exchange
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
- Tradegate is majority owned by Berliner Effektengesellschaft AG. 90 percent price increase since November 2020
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Sources:
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
> Berlin Stock Exchange took a majority stake in EASDAQ NV, which operated under the name Equiduct, in September 2007. The goal for the deal was to offer the exchange's customers a wide range of European financial products.
|
||||||
|
>
|
||||||
|
> Source (English): <http://www.marketswiki.com/wiki/Equiduct_Systems_Ltd>
|
||||||
|
>
|
||||||
|
> 2009: Equiduct enters into strategic partnership with Citadel Securities
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
> The Citadel Securities platform includes investment banking, multi-asset class market making, order execution services and Citadel Solutions, a leading hedge fund management company. Securities market making, investment banking and securities trading execution services are provided in the US by Citadel Securities L.L.C., a member of FINRA, and in Europe by Citadel Derivatives Group (Europe) Limited, regulated by the UK FSA. (translated from German Language)
|
||||||
|
>
|
||||||
|
> Source (German language, please use translator): <https://www.pressebox.de/inaktiv/boerse-berlin-ag/Equiduct-geht-strategische-Partnerschaft-mit-Citadel-Securities-ein/boxid/277846>
|
||||||
|
>
|
||||||
|
> The agreement between Citadel Securities and Börse Berlin AG will provide funding to Equiduct for developing its platform into one of Europe's leading execution venues.
|
||||||
|
>
|
||||||
|
> Source (English): <https://www.jugendchor-speuz.ch/docs/ba4883-b%C3%B6rse-berlin-live>
|
||||||
|
>
|
||||||
|
> 2012: Easdaq adds four new members to board
|
||||||
|
>
|
||||||
|
> Easdaq N.V., owner of the pan European retail trading platform Equiduct, today announced the addition of four new members to its board.
|
||||||
|
>
|
||||||
|
> The new board members include Jonathan Graham, Managing Director at Citadel LLC; Jamil Nazarali, Senior Managing Director at Citadel LLC; Daniel Pouget, Entrepreneur in Residence at INSEAD and Peter Randall, CEO of Equiduct Systems Limited.
|
||||||
|
>
|
||||||
|
> Source (English): <https://www.finextra.com/pressarticle/43272/easdaq-adds-four-new-members-to-board>
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
> 2019: Tradegate takes over Berlin Stock Exchange
|
||||||
|
>
|
||||||
|
> The trading platform Tradegate Exchange, which specializes in private investors, is being taken over the Berlin Stock Exchange. The company, which is also based in the capital, will in future control 100 percent of the shares in Berliner Börse AG, as both announced on October 9, 2019.
|
||||||
|
>
|
||||||
|
> Source (German language, please use translator): <https://www.berlin.de/wirtschaft/nachrichten/5934420-3912379-tradegate-uebernimmt-berliner-boerse.html>
|
||||||
|
>
|
||||||
|
> Announcement according to Art. 5 subsection 2 of the German Exchange Act: Tradegate Exchange GmbH is the sole owner of Börse Berlin AG.
|
||||||
|
>
|
||||||
|
> Equiduct Trading serves as the full electronic trading platform of Börse Berlin and is technically provided by Equiduct Systems Limited, a company registered in England and Wales (registered number 02937847) whose registered office is 50 St Mary Axe, London, EC3A 8FR.
|
||||||
|
>
|
||||||
|
> Source (English): <https://www.equiduct.com/imprint>
|
||||||
|
>
|
||||||
|
> The Tradegate Exchange is a securities exchange specialized for private investors. Currently, around 30 trading participants from Germany, Austria and Great Britain are directly or indirectly connected.
|
||||||
|
>
|
||||||
|
> Source (English): <https://www.deutsche-boerse-cash-market.com/dbcm-en/secondary-market/tradegate-exchange>
|
||||||
|
>
|
||||||
|
> Berliner Effektengesellschaft: What a story
|
||||||
|
>
|
||||||
|
> The shares of the Berliner Effektengesellschaft (BEG) are among the price miracles of the current bull market that are not quite as in the limelight as Lang & Schwarz or even flatexDEGIRO. Nevertheless: 90 percent price increase since November 2020 alone and a stock market value of around 935 million euros is more than impressive. The investment story is quickly told: The Berliners hold 56.2 percent of the Tradegate trading platform, in which Deutsche Börse AG is also involved. The number of securities transactions processed via Tradegate is currently soaring upwards that nobody would have thought possible. (translated from German Language)
|
||||||
|
>
|
||||||
|
> Source (German Language, please use translator): <https://boersengefluester.de/berliner-effektengesellschaft-was-fur-eine-story/>
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
[](https://preview.redd.it/8a12jdq2x6671.png?width=630&format=png&auto=webp&s=e7bb188fd54a7f0f44c7bfb3efbbd6466fda0e9f)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Screenshot from Link above.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Edit: Writing
|
Reference in New Issue
Block a user