13 KiB
CITADEL, MARGIN CALL, 1M MISSING SHARES & THE TRADING HALT
| Author | Source |
|---|---|
| u/Rugby97 |
Sit the fuck down before you read this.
MY THEORY: u/Leenixus was almost certainly correct in Thinking that "They" got margin called today.
In After Hours 1M shares seemed to "disappear" from EOD Volume before "reappearing" in the EOD Volume later before AH close. I BELIEVE this is because Citadel got margin called @ 1127 today and therefor those 1M shares traded had to be re-routed or re-done or what have you. I can't be certain. I don't know if that's a thing or not but the concept makes a LOT of sense.
Part 1: Introduction to the theory
Part 2: Running the numbers
Part 3: Pictures of the EOD Volume bouncing between 2.7M to 1.7M back to 2.7M during AH
Part 4: Extra stuffing for your tinfoil hat & confirmation bias
Part 5: Putting it all together
PART 1: INTRODUCTION TO THE THEORY
In case you live under a rock and don't spend every minute during trading hours staring at the $GME ticker & refreshing r/superstonk, today there was a 5 minute market wide trading halt from 1127-1132. There was also a case of 1M shares disappearing off of EOD (end of day) volume in AH (afterhours).
5 Minute Trading Halt - You can verify this yourself easily. credit to u/harbinger2nd for image
credit to u/lnning for image
enhance
I was reading This Post by Leenixus about how he has a theory Citadel got margin called today. Well, I think you're right u/Leenixus. Let me explain why.
In the comments under his post u/Wapata bought up an idea. So I ran some numbers
PART 2: RUNNING THE NUMBERS
I looked at what the volume was when the market got halted at 1127.
From 0930-1000 there was 441.53k volume
From 1000-1030 there was 254.76k volume
From 1030-1100 there was 169.95k volume
& Finally from 1100-1130 there was 150.43k volume
Lets add this into a calculator
1M shares nearly on the fucking dot.
Compare this to the AH candle again:
It's BARELY nudging over that 1M line. That looks a lot like 1.016M shares to me.
PART 3: PICTURES OF THE EOD VOLUME BOUNCING FROM 2.7M TO 1.7M BACK TO 2.7M DURING AH
Here's some pictures of the EOD volume not being at the "correct" 2.7M today during AH:
Webull
Yahoo @ 1718 EDT
Wealthsimple at 1.22M??? *by the way, it's at 1.23M now, it has not "corrected" like Yahoo & others. ????????? I've reached out to them, however replies usually take ~2 days
Yahoo correcting EOD Volume by end of AH back to 2.7M, many other sources did same
PART 4: EXTRA STUFFING FOR YOUR TINFOIL HAT & CONFIRMATION BIAS
At the end of the day we Todd Barker, the head of Citadel's Surveyor Capital step down.
Sorry to hear that, Todd.
In This Post by Leenixus they mentioned how todays price to get margin called is estimated* to have been $161.19
That's above the estimated $161.19 margin call trigger. Coincidence?
PART 5: WRAPPING IT ALL TOGETHER + TLDR
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Citadel Securities is one of the main market makers. Market makers route orders to the market.
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When NYSE was halted for 5 minutes @ 1127, the total trade volume for $GME at the time was ~1M shares
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It's estimated that $161.19 was the margin call trigger price today for the major short sellers of GME (This includes Citadel, theorized to be the biggest) The price was $162.32 when the market was halted
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In After Hours 1M shares seemed to "disappear" from EOD Volume before "reappearing" in the EOD Volume later before AH close. I BELIEVE this is because Citadel got margin called @ 1127 today and therefor those 1M shares traded had to be re-routed or re-done or what have you. I can't be certain. I don't know if that's a thing or not but the concept makes a LOT of sense.
It took over a month for us learn Archegos got Margin Called. So there may not be confirmation/proof saying otherwise for this theory for awhile. Regardless, the numbers add up and the rabbit hole leads to kens back yard.
EDIT1:
I should mention that just because a margin call happens, does NOT mean an institution needs to cover all their positions etc. Institutions CAN satisfy a margin call by having enough capital in your "margin account" (unsure if this would be called the same thing for hedge funds). If you can't satisfy it that way, one of two things can happen
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You buy securities to cover your short positions or
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Get liquidated
EDIT2:
Check out An ape explained the missing 1million volume. I think I'm gonna throw up.
EDIT3:
A very good point brought up by u/Jvic111 & my counter to it
Always encourage both sides of an argument! Thank you Jvic!
EDIT 3.1:
This may be another possible solution to the argument above alternative to my guess
EDIT 4:
More Counter DD (thanks to u/diskodik for pointing this out):
My best guess against it: They started to run into problems because Citadel was in the process of getting margin called and it started to fuck with their processing due to the fact Citadel is one of the largest Market Makers for the NYSE. This would undoubtedly lead to difficulties processing orders/bids to the market https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/n5v5m0/an_ape_explained_the_missing_1million_volume_i/
Or This: https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/n5yrd7/holy_shit_this_could_be_a_missing_link_between/?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share (Courtesy of u/diskodik again!)
EDIT 5:
Well, I guess I'm not sleeping tonight:
are you
fucking kidding me
My calculation: 1,016,670
Negative Candle: 1,015,953
None of this is financial advice. I'm an idiot. Pure speculation for entertainment purposes only.
tick tock ken