5.3 KiB
The Algorithm: Occam's Razor
Some Heartfelt Words
Hello, apes. I am not a financial advisor. I am merely autistic, number-crunching engineer.
I have been pushing this theory a swinging cycles for a few months now. When I first presented it, I was teased, mocked, and memed. I went through quite the hazing when I first posted this theory to reddit. I bring this up to specifically comment on my frustrations I have felt as a result of those that have not gone through that ostracized feeling but have yet benefitted from this idea. I have spent countless hours going through iterations of modeling and cross comparing models, data sets, sources, distributions, and so so much more.
It is my view as a engineer with a strong stats background that TA has not been applicable to this specific ticker for a very long time. This is evident because of my formal training in orthodox statistical analysis and it very prevalent uses in this specific situation. I have not changed my original idea that an underlying, repetitive computation has been at play. I have evolved the ways I have modeled it but my greatest thesis of the existence of an algorithm has been constant.
During the times when I was constantly teased, ridiculed, and so many other harsh responses the internet tends to give those that introduce a thought that greatly contradicts the overall community's belief, I did exactly what I have been advised to do. I was told that when everything went dark, to trust the DD. I trusted mine.
To Understand is to Love
All my DD, twitter spaces, statistical examples, et cetera have been worded with having those that are completely new to investing and data analysis in mind. I did this to encourage learning a subject I have a great love and passion for and to show how this stuff isn't really all that intimidating. Although something may look really, really hard and complicated, when you spend the time to observe it and understand it, you must realize that it really isn't at all.
The most beautiful thing to me about this particular behavioral trend is its simplicity. There isn't a bunch of lines drawn influenced highly by observational bias and there isn't some sort of coding script to identify patterns. It literally is just looking at the data as a function of time which is one of the most fundamental examples of statistical modeling.
This is poetry to me.
God from the Machine
The term "Deus Ex Machina" is defined as "a person or thing that appears or is introduced into a situation suddenly and unexpectedly and provides an artificial or contrived solution to an apparently insoluble difficulty." To me, I interpret that something so improbable that occurred in an all too perfect way could have only have happened by divine intervention. For me, this "algorithm" is my Deus Ex Machina. It is my black swan.
Evolution of a Theory
I purposefully have not posted a follow-up to one of my previous data analysis where I identified when the most significant dates along with the history of these swings because I received too many response show they bought options from my conclusions. I did not like how what I posted for others as purely a form of knowledge was used for financial gains. Since we are now so close to when I believe a very volatile (potentially MOASS inducing) day will happen, I am writing this up. I believe I have gone over my statistical analysis and mathematical process flow enough where the below graphs can easily be referenced to my previous DD.
Without Any Further Ado
Overlay of Previous to Current Cycles' Greatest Single Day Decrease
Overlay of Previous to Current Cycles' Greatest Single Day Increase
Greatest Overnight Change Theory
Conclusion
The repeating cycles are suggesting for a very volatile week.
Thoughts
I believe in you. It really is that simple. Data analysis, investing, stocks, or whatever isn't intimidating if you just take the time to observe and notice what its true nature is. Take good care of yourself because there is only one of you.
TL;DR
Buckle up and get ready to see how well you can hold.
Edit: For the Greatest Overnight Change Theory Graph, I made a typo of 5/24 and edited it to 5/25.