12 KiB
Synopsis for 03-30-2021 what we need to know before the market opens DD
Author; u/rensole
Good morning San Diago,
I am Rensole,
Kenny there is a call waiting for you.
insert flashy intro card
None of this is financial advice.
Shills, shills everywhere.
So as some must have seen yesterday the sub got flooded with messages saying "Warden is a shill" with little to back it up, does this sound familiar to someone ?
Because it sounds familiar to me.
Let's make a few things very clear here, everyone here is doing this as a volunteer, no one is getting paid by anyone and put all their findings here. Are those findings always a 100% correct? no.
So I have a very simple rule to keep in mind
so it's simple right? If you dislike someone's work, prove that their work is flawed. not with "gut feeling" or saying "I disagree with them" but prove it "this person said X but it is Y because if you look at obv+S/L it shows... etc etc"
I've seen people try character assassination with both Pixel, the mods and myself, and you either back it up with facts or shut up. this is a place that is rooted in facts and documents, not feelings.
If someone says something you disagree with, be an adult and move on. this isn't high school, so we wont be entertaining high school level drama.
People were bitching that Pixel was too optimistic, now they're complaining that Warden for being too careful in his estimates, pick a lane people.
And even if you listen to anyone on this board, be it me, warden, or Bigdaddydick69 or coomslayer420, take their info that they presented and analyze it yourself and come to your own conclusions.
Don't trust anyone here and make your own decisions, but make sure every decision is well formed.
Accounting for Bias
For the people that haven't been along long enough to be accustomed to this term, guys account for your own bias.
I'm saying this because last weekend we've seen a hedge fund Archegos die this past weekend and people are flocking to it because " THIS MUST BE BECAUSE OF GME".
so let's go over some few basic key points that I hope will help you guys to be more critical thinkers and be able to help the community better.
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Bias is the tendency to favor one thing over another
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Bias is a natural, normal human tendency
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We like and find reasons to reject the things that don't fit that Bias
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Learn what your biases are
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Don't react from a gut feeling, take a step back and look at all the data
Sounds simple right?
Everyone here favors GME, that's our bias.
We want something to happen to GME yesterday if possible, therefore everything that happens right now is connected to gme in our minds.
And if someone comes and says oh but I found X to not fit within this, that person gets attacked because we don't like to see that stuff because it's uncomfortable to have things that doesn't fit our bias.
Therefore your emotions want to go hard "keyboard warrior", don't take a step back and think why this person may be saying something and try to learn. even if the person saying shit that's plainly wrong, find their reasoning, why would they say it.
Rule with logic, not emotion.
NSCC-2021-004 implemented 3/29, effective immediately.
https://www.sec.gov/rules/sro/nscc.htm
as per yesterday the NSCC-2021-004 was implemented and effective immediately.
u/Klone211 did a great writeup here
- Implied volatility(IV) will no longer be incorporated into the calculation of the Value-at-Risk(VaR)
Under Section 5.2.1
... the amount of Clearing Fund required from each Member is determined principally by Value-at-Risk ("VaR") calculations,21 and that in order to ensure the VaR model accurately reflects market conditions and provides adequate protection against market risk, NSCC evaluates several factors on an ongoing basis. The proposed rule change would remove the following factor as one of those evaluated, because it is no longer part of NSCC's model calculation, "Implied volatility to assess whether a potential increase in market price volatility may not be fully incorporated in the historical price moves."22
2. The NSCC can pull funds from the Clearing Fund to help pay for a Member's losses 2 business days after a loss allocation notice.
Under Section 6.4
In order to be consistent with the language formulation set out in Rule 4, the proposed rule change would revise this sentence to state, "Losses charged to Members are required to be paid by Members on the second business day after the Corporation issues any such notice of a loss allocation charge and, if not timely paid by any Member, the Corporation may treat that Member as having failed to satisfy its obligation and apply the Clearing Fund deposit of that Member to satisfy its loss allocation obligation."
For more information be sure to check his thread because he covers all the points I would and he did an amazing job with it.
Now there is only one piece missing... oh right the DTCC-2021-801, if all goes well we should see this one kick in soon as well.
Sideways baby
For we go further let's go back to my prefered saying "we can stay retarded longer than they can stay solvent".
So I heard a lot of chatter on the sub yesterday about sideways trading being bad, and guess what, you'd be wrong. Going sideways is actually kindof good.
We are currently above max pain territory (which I believe is 160/170 at the moment), and we must doing something right if you look at the history of Shitadel and Melvin in these past months, because they're losing a lot of money, even going so far as to offer shit grade bonds to get some cash.
Well there is one thing better than just waiting on a catalyst to happen, it's inflicting max pain and waiting.
Seriously everyone keeps talking about this being the endgame etc, chill people this can take a day a week or till the shareholders meeting in june, no one knows how long this will last, so grow a pair and learn to sit back and relax.
u/whiskiz did a great writeup here which go's into better detail then I did here.
Now for the more brainy apes among us, here is a paper (like smart people writing stuff) on ETF short interest and ftd naked shortselling or operational shorting.
I know what I'll be reading today
EXCELLENT!
Be friendly, help others!
as always we are here from all different walks of life and all different countries.
This doesn't matter as we are all apes in here, and apes are friends.
Doesn't matter if you're a silverback a chimp or a bonobo.
We help each other, we care for each other.
Ape don't fight ape, apes help other apes
this helps us weed out the shills really fast, as if everyone is helpful, the ones who aren't stand out.
remember the fundamentals of this company are great, they should be above the current price point, so for the love of god if someone starts with trying to spread FUD, remind yourself of the fundamentals.
There is no sense of urgency, this will come when it comes, be a week, be it a month be it six.
We don't care, just be nice and lets make this community as Excellent as we can!
Remember none of this is financial advice, I'm so retarded I'm not allowed to go to the zoo 'cause they'll put me in the cage with the rest of my ape brothers.
If anything happens throughout the day I will be adding it here.
backups:
https://twitter.com/warden_elite
https://twitter.com/RedChessQueen99
And I'll be posting updates as they happen here:
Edit 1:
GameStop Appoints Chief Growth Officer
it has appointed Elliott Wilke to the role of Chief Growth Officer.
Additionally, the Company made two other executive hires:
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Andrea Wolfe, Vice President of Brand Development -- Ms. Wolfe, who previously served as Chewy's Vice President of Marketing, started March 29, 2021. She has held executive and director-level marketing roles at companies such as Outdoorsy, Spreetrail and Whole Foods. In her new role, Ms. Wolfe will help drive branding, content, social media strategy and other digital initiatives.
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Tom Petersen, Vice President of Merchandising -- Mr. Petersen, who previously served as Chewy's Vice President of Merchandising, started March 29, 2021. He has also held senior marketing and merchandising roles at specialty retailers such as Artenza and Corro. In his new role, Mr. Petersen will help drive vendor relations, product management and related merchandising initiatives.
https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/gamestop-appoints-chief-growth-officer-104500636.html