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95 lines
9.1 KiB
Markdown
95 lines
9.1 KiB
Markdown
The algorithm has been doing this shit for years: Part 1
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| Author | Source |
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| [u/PWNWTFBBQ](https://www.reddit.com/user/PWNWTFBBQ/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/owlg3z/the_algorithm_has_been_doing_this_shit_for_years/) |
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---
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[DD 👨🔬](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22DD%20%F0%9F%91%A8%E2%80%8D%F0%9F%94%AC%22&restrict_sr=1)
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I am not a financial advisor. IRL, I'm an engineer with a strong stats background who spends too much time on the internet.
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Aight. So, shit is about to get real real here. Buckle up. Hold onto your tendies. Keep your hands diamond, your balls titanium and your butthole clenched.
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Background History
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Some time ago, I noticed a repeating trend with the GME share price. This was the image was from that [post](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/ogjkao/i_think_i_figured_out_the_shorting_algorithm/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3). Since people often made the comment about needing more data to prove if shit was going down, I decided to provide it.
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[](https://preview.redd.it/p92hvy5ksze71.png?width=624&format=png&auto=webp&s=d75e52ceb2b966ec82a5eed16beb27d95cef72a2)
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A History of C***-KEN ({°}) and McDICK 8==D~~
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Before I go too further, I want to identify a few key time frames. One is the Citadel Unusual Number of Tomfuckery Knavish Economy of Nakedness era occurring in the earlier years of GME (~2008), and Melvin's Constant Decreasing Intentional Current Kbullshit era (~2015), which I will refer to as C***-KEN and McDICK respectfully. I have so kindly made a graphical representation of this for your viewing pleasure. Periodically, some of the dates have not been presented for formatting and scaling purposes (and because length doesn't matter, and as a woman, I have no idea what 6 inches really is).
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[](https://preview.redd.it/2i9t3uklsze71.png?width=624&format=png&auto=webp&s=e87cc4fd3c215a9e202f0ac7fbdfc87098c8e315)
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The C*** KEN era
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Looking in to the past and the SEC website, Citadel started to place married options in the fucking hundred and thousands starting back in like 2008. (For this table, I stopped consolidating data from the SEC website about 2009 because it's a bitch and I'm half lazy.)
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[](https://preview.redd.it/24f23vtmsze71.png?width=624&format=png&auto=webp&s=b0f345453dfa30787679d66fcbce8f8ad9e3875f)
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How fucking bad can this get? Like.... Really? IDK. Let's look at the GME close, GME FTD, and VIX close starting when the FTD was first recorded on 10/12/2005.
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[](https://preview.redd.it/g98eikynsze71.png?width=624&format=png&auto=webp&s=b9e2311122b5834a5a39bcf051a12461cb74e7bd)
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Hmm.... It looks as if shit got real real in late 2008 when the little red dots turned into a stream of menstrual blood basically when GME was getting a bunch of FTD's on the rag, I mean reg.
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[](https://preview.redd.it/5euqq7ipsze71.png?width=624&format=png&auto=webp&s=6cd9e5b1cabffab10db604fd11b2409c453a1a87)
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Wasn't Citadel first recorded to fuck shit up in 2008Q3?
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[](https://preview.redd.it/sw6bs85qsze71.png?width=364&format=png&auto=webp&s=7c730e29f632966ff269a1fbff91d335a06d7f32)
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What other fuckery happened around this time?! How fucking bad can this get? Like.... Really? IDK, man. Let's look at a range of values from 01/01/2007 to 12/31/2010 to look at comparing values and also add some lines to show where 03/31/2008 and 09/30/2009 are located. It also looks inverse so let's throw in a 1 / VIX close into that group.
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[](https://preview.redd.it/fula0b7rsze71.png?width=624&format=png&auto=webp&s=08797133140159f8b0846a746a826db762d04666)
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Want to know why I clearly have identified the location of the clit in this blue waffle?!
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[](https://preview.redd.it/yds6zcqrsze71.png?width=624&format=png&auto=webp&s=7c78ce3e63f8e697efd6f202eca109c0402cf67b)
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This is why. Right around 11/21/2008, VIX had a high that will not be seen again until 2020.
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[](https://preview.redd.it/c2sumvhssze71.png?width=624&format=png&auto=webp&s=25907548d2c41a01c3f1431cd89f090d038517a9)
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It would thus be inferred that there is a STRONG Fucking correlation of the ~~inverse~~ VIX to the C***-KEN.
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VIX and McDICK
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In [May 2014](https://ihsmarkit.com/research-analysis/14112014-Equities-Most-shorted-of-the-week.html) (circled within the first blue ball), GME short interest was noted to be markedly increased from ~18% to 26%.
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[](https://preview.redd.it/johvn9ftsze71.png?width=599&format=png&auto=webp&s=845c5850a579d58ef08fd06dc69c8c0e5d2e58d1)
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[This value](https://ihsmarkit.com/research-analysis/25112014-Equities-Retailers-on-short-seller-holiday-list.html) increased from ~25% to 32% in July.
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[](https://preview.redd.it/k0u7o35usze71.png?width=604&format=png&auto=webp&s=88ed6572b4be20d39447cc79346057aeddba1acb)
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Per the SEC quarterly filing, McDICK entered around the 2nd blue ball.
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[](https://preview.redd.it/k3xn2ayvsze71.png?width=253&format=png&auto=webp&s=d849c9147bec479ce56e7e940838e1aecd801f7f)
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[](https://preview.redd.it/w6ekiqfwsze71.png?width=624&format=png&auto=webp&s=323ce21e05db110eb0aff55116b8919bcf324278)
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Here is even the call and put volume of by year to show the number of marriages going on:
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[](https://preview.redd.it/2tqes0nxzze71.png?width=624&format=png&auto=webp&s=52c39f9d5343df99bfd131d8c92defa1477809a4)
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From the OBV, it doesn't really look like it's retail. The OBV (blue) pretty fucking much remained the same (if not trended a wee bit up) while the share price (black) dropped like hot sauce. Looks a lot like what we've been seeing now while we have been holding it in and prairie dogging it until we hit MOASS.
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[](https://preview.redd.it/dhl2zltxsze71.png?width=624&format=png&auto=webp&s=467b1b56978c7199a473a16b685473bffacbf59a)
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So.... Like WTF happened in 2019?
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[The numbers of shares dropped by a shit ton](https://news.gamestop.com/news-releases/news-release-details/gamestop-declares-quarterly-cash-dividend-announces-intent). This is why we see a drastic dip in the OBV that was presented in the beginning.
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To be continued
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Images speak louder than words and reddit has a cap on that. So here it [part 2](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/owlg7n/the_algorithm_has_been_doing_this_shit_for_years/).
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[part 1 tweet](https://twitter.com/pwnwtfbbq/status/1421825945091067904?s=20)
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Edit: options marriage image.
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