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@ -0,0 +1,470 @@
|
||||
I. IMPORTANT LINKS FOR NEW MEMBERS TO [r/superstonk](https://old.reddit.com/r/superstonk)
|
||||
=========================================================================================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/HCMF_MaceFace](https://old.reddit.com/user/HCMF_MaceFace) | [Reddit](https://old.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nletnn/gme_the_mother_of_all_short_squeezes_moass_thesis/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
- [APE Security Protocol (how to secure and protect yourself online)](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nsgv3d/ape_security_protocols/)
|
||||
- [DD Beginners Guide Page](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/njwv6n/the_gme_masters_guide_a_dd_campaign_for_apes/?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share)
|
||||
- [Wiki](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/wiki/index)
|
||||
|
||||
II. INTRO / INTENTION OF POST
|
||||
=============================
|
||||
|
||||
The core intention of this post was to frame the MOASS Thesis in a way that was understandable to individuals inside and outside of the community (especially those who are relatively new to the market). It also is intended to serve as a reference to leverage if you are ever trying to explain to someone why you think it is a good investment option.
|
||||
|
||||
This post will give a *relatively* simplistic breakdown of the current situation and landscape of GameStop Stock (GME). It will summarize the theory that GME's price will soon reach astronomical levels during a massive short squeeze, AKA "The Mother of all Short Squeezes (MOASS) Thesis". The bulk of this post is a breakdown of the market terms and concepts that will need to be understood in order to fully comprehend the who-what-when-where-why-how.
|
||||
|
||||
III. Personal note
|
||||
==================
|
||||
|
||||
Feel free to use the contents of this post however you want. Don't worry about asking for permission to copy it, cross-post it, translate it, refine and use it in your own posts, etc.
|
||||
|
||||
Leave a comment if you have any questions. If you prefer Chat or do not meet karma requirements, you can hit me up on chat as well
|
||||
|
||||
> Note that, while I may have a good grasp on the concepts broken down in this post, my background is not in finance, investing, or trading, so there may be some questions I do not have the answer do (especially if they are not called out in this post)
|
||||
|
||||
I have found myself more active on [Twitter](https://twitter.com/intent/user?screen_name=HCMF_MaceFace) than I ever really expected to be, so feel free to [follow me](https://twitter.com/intent/user?screen_name=HCMF_MaceFace) if you want things like the below:
|
||||
|
||||
- Antagonizing Market Adversaries, MSM Shills, etc.
|
||||
- Meme-ing with SuperStonk and the other Apes in the community
|
||||
- Getting Notifications for Future DD I post
|
||||
|
||||
Disclaimer
|
||||
|
||||
> This writeup is NOT intended to serve as a source of proof/evidence behind this theory, and it operates under the assumption that the theory is valid and that the conditions it is built on are valid. Credit for the DD this Thesis is based on belongs to the broader retail community inside and outside of [r/superstonk](https://old.reddit.com/r/superstonk). I personally contributed very little beyond synthesizing and summarizing the thesis and mechanics in a digestible way to help enable others to get the word out, and I am not an expert on really any of these topics despite having some knowledge in them.
|
||||
|
||||
IV. TL;DR (Also at Bottom)
|
||||
==========================
|
||||
|
||||
1. Toxic Market Participants have built up massive [short positions](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/short.asp) made through [Naked Shorting](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/n/nakedshorting.asp)
|
||||
2. Retail caught on to this strategy and discovered it can backfire if the company being shorted does not go bankrupt, especially if shares are bought and held indefinitely
|
||||
3. Rules and regulations have implemented by the DTCC and its subsidiaries have been geared towards preventing market collapse, as well as to minimize the ability to perform illegal trades (naked shorting)
|
||||
4. The SEC is also doing more to enforce compliance with the "rules"
|
||||
5. The manipulators are at the mercy of a vicious trade cycle (t+21 FTD Cycle) that is forcing those with naked short positions to perform actions to [cover](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/shortcovering.asp) (buy back shares that are short), or risk regulatory consequences
|
||||
6. This act of rapid covering drives up the price, making it more expensive to cover during the next cycle if the share price continues to increase week over week
|
||||
7. Eventually, the prices of GME will get so high that prime brokers/clearing houses will have no choice but to [Margin Call](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/m/margincall.asp) these participants which most likely will not be affordable due to the nature of [Short Squeezes](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/shortsqueeze.asp), causing them to default
|
||||
8. The [Prime-Brokers](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/p/primebrokerage.asp) will then take on the position, and if the Prime Brokers cannot cover them and also defaults, the NSCC will be next to attempt to settle all positions left over based on their [Recovery and Wind-down Plan (p42)](https://www.dtcc.com/~/media/Files/Downloads/legal/policy-and-compliance/NSCC_Disclosure_Framework.pdf)
|
||||
9. If NSCC cannot afford to close everything with the money reserved for this type of situation, they the Fed must navigate the remaining positions (potentially via printing money/bailout)
|
||||
|
||||
V. KEY CONCEPTS
|
||||
===============
|
||||
|
||||
These terms are key to understanding the theory and speculated value of a GME investment. Hyperlinks to [Investopedia](https://www.investopedia.com/), "the world's leading source of financial content on the web", have been included for most market terms and concepts and it is recommended to check them out if they are not clear. We will be breaking down some of the more complex terms and concepts within the post and framing them within the context of GME.
|
||||
|
||||
Table of Contents for Key Concepts
|
||||
|
||||
1. Stocks Concepts
|
||||
1. Share/Stock
|
||||
2. Synthetic Shares
|
||||
3. Outstanding Shares
|
||||
4. Restricted Shares
|
||||
5. The Float
|
||||
6. Annual General Meeting
|
||||
7. Shareholder Votes
|
||||
2. Trade Positions
|
||||
1. Long Position - Buying/Selling Stock
|
||||
2. Short Position - Shorting/Covering Stock
|
||||
3. Naked Short Position - Naked Shorting/Covering Stock
|
||||
3. Market Participants
|
||||
1. Retail Investors
|
||||
2. Institutional Investors
|
||||
3. Market Makers
|
||||
4. Prime Brokers
|
||||
5. Clearinghouses
|
||||
6. MSM
|
||||
4. IMPORTANT MARKET/TRADE MECHANICS (MOASS)
|
||||
1. Fails to Deliver (FTD)
|
||||
2. Margin
|
||||
3. Margin Calls
|
||||
4. Margin Calls Who Calls Who
|
||||
5. Short Squeeze
|
||||
|
||||
1 - STOCKS CONCEPTS
|
||||
===================
|
||||
|
||||
1.1 - Shares/Stock
|
||||
------------------
|
||||
|
||||
[Shares](https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/difference-between-shares-and-stocks/#shares) are the smallest unit of a Companies [Stock](https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/difference-between-shares-and-stocks/#stocks)
|
||||
|
||||
- Stocks and Shares are often used interchangeably
|
||||
- Technically "shares" would represent how many of a specific company's stock, where buying multiple "stocks" would main that shares of multiple company's were bought
|
||||
- ex. I bought 2 stocks; 10 shares of GME, and 60 shares of AMC
|
||||
- There are different [classes of shares](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/class.asp) that are distinguished on their voting rights, sales charges, and other factors
|
||||
- Classes of shares have relatively complex dynamics, but I will not go further into them here, as it is not as relevant to GME/AMC
|
||||
|
||||
1\. 2 - Synthetic Shares
|
||||
------------------------
|
||||
|
||||
[Synthetic Shares](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/synthetic.asp) are the financial instruments that get produced through [Naked Shorting](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/n/nakedshorting.asp)
|
||||
|
||||
- Not to be confused with [synthetic options](https://www.investopedia.com/articles/optioninvestor/08/synthetic-options.asp) positions, which are legal/legitimate trade strategies that "simulate" the profits/losses as if the trader actually held those shares
|
||||
- Synthetic shares entitle the owner to all of the same rights as an investor owning a non-synthetic share
|
||||
- Cases where there is an excessive amount of synthetic shares point to the possibility that a stock is being abused or manipulated
|
||||
- Cannot be easily measured due to limited public transparency at the Market Maker and Prime Broker level
|
||||
|
||||
1.3 - Outstanding Shares
|
||||
------------------------
|
||||
|
||||
The number of [Outstanding shares](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/o/outstandingshares.asp) encompasses the amount of issued shares held by all shareholders (both private and public)
|
||||
|
||||
- It is possible for there to be more shares outstanding through Naked shorting, which produces Synthetic shares
|
||||
- The number of issued AND synthetic shares outstanding is very difficult to measure, as they are only recorded on the books of the market makers generating synthetic shares and the prime-brokers they trade through
|
||||
- These parties are not incentivized to be transparent and actively obscure these numbers, as the practice of naked shorting excessively is fraudulent and illegal
|
||||
|
||||
1.4 - Restricted Shares
|
||||
-----------------------
|
||||
|
||||
[Restricted shares](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/r/restrictedstock.asp) include the number of issued shares held by insiders of the company
|
||||
|
||||
- These shares are not publicly traded on the stock market
|
||||
|
||||
1.5 - The Float
|
||||
---------------
|
||||
|
||||
[The Float](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/f/floating-stock.asp), or Floating Stock is the number of shares of stock that are available to be publicly traded (the number of [Outstanding shares](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/o/outstandingshares.asp) minus the amount of [Restricted shares](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/r/restrictedstock.asp) that are owned by insiders).
|
||||
|
||||
- In theory, the number of shares owned by [retail investors](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/r/retailinvestor.asp) and [institutional investors](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/i/institutionalinvestor.asp) should not exceed the float
|
||||
- GME's float total is currently ~[56.89 Million](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/GME/key-statistics/) shares (as of 6/10/21)
|
||||
|
||||
1.6 - Shareholder Votes
|
||||
-----------------------
|
||||
|
||||
[Annual General Meetings](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/a/agm.asp) basically is an annual meeting that allows shareholders to vote
|
||||
|
||||
- Votes are cast for things like
|
||||
- Appointment of directors
|
||||
- Executive compensation
|
||||
- Dividend adjustments
|
||||
|
||||
1.7 - Shareholder Votes
|
||||
=======================
|
||||
|
||||
[Shareholder Voting](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/v/votingright.asp) is a right extended to shareholders holding shares in the stock that entitle the owner to vote on cooperate policies
|
||||
|
||||
- Examples of what votes are cast for
|
||||
- Appointment of directors
|
||||
- Executive compensation
|
||||
- Dividend adjustments
|
||||
- [Overvoting (info in the middle of this page)](https://www.sec.gov/spotlight/proxyprocess/proxyvotingbrief.htm)
|
||||
- When there is an overvote (like GME on 6/9), the votes will be normalized to a number based on the amount of shares that are held by DTC
|
||||
- The official 8K form cannot be officially submitted with an overvote
|
||||
- When this happens, the SEC and Company are notified
|
||||
|
||||
2 - TRADE POSITIONS
|
||||
===================
|
||||
|
||||
2.1 - Long Position - Buying/Selling Stock
|
||||
------------------------------------------
|
||||
|
||||
When an investor buys a stock they are considered [long](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/l/long.asp) on it (this is the type of position most people associate with trading stocks)
|
||||
|
||||
- Not to be confused with a [long-term](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/l/longterminvestments.asp) investment
|
||||
- In other words, holders of long positions have a positive number of shares
|
||||
- To [close](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/closeposition.asp) a long position the owner would sell their shares on the stock market
|
||||
|
||||
Basic flow of obtaining/closing a long position is:
|
||||
|
||||
1. Buy the stock
|
||||
2. Hold it until the price of it increases to a desired amount
|
||||
3. Sell it for a profit
|
||||
|
||||
2.2 - Short Position - Shorting/Covering Stock
|
||||
----------------------------------------------
|
||||
|
||||
When a short seller shorts a stock they hold a [short position](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/short.asp) on the stock, or owe the party they borrowed from however many shares they shorted
|
||||
|
||||
- Not to be confused with a [short-term](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/shorterminvestments.asp) investment
|
||||
- Investors with short positions effectively are *in debt* or *owe* the number of shares that they have shorted and can be considered *negative* on the stock
|
||||
- To close that position, short-sellers must buy a number of shares equal to the size of their short position (buying to close a short position is known as [covering](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/shortcovering.asp))
|
||||
- Short positions must be reported to regulators (unlike naked short sales)
|
||||
|
||||
Basic flow of obtaining/closing a short position:
|
||||
|
||||
1. Borrow a share owned by a lender
|
||||
2. Sell the stock that was borrowed
|
||||
3. Gaining the cash based on the price it was at the time it was "shorted"
|
||||
4. Pay interest as a percentage of the stock's value
|
||||
5. Since this is a percentage the cost of interest increases if the stock's value increases
|
||||
6. Hold the position until the price has dropped to a desired price
|
||||
7. Buy the stock on the open market
|
||||
8. Ideally the stock is bought back at a lower price than originally borrowed for so the investor can pocket the difference
|
||||
9. Return the share back to the lender
|
||||
|
||||
2.3 - Naked Short Position - Naked Shorting/Covering Stock
|
||||
----------------------------------------------------------
|
||||
|
||||
[Naked Shorting](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/n/nakedshorting.asp) effectively allows a Short Seller, working with a market maker, to short a stock using a without having a borrowed share like normal short selling
|
||||
|
||||
- Naked short sales do NOT have to be reported the same way as normal "Short Sales" and can be "hidden"
|
||||
- Failures to Deliver the shares that were "fake-borrowed" to the buyer are on of the main ways to find evidence of naked shorting
|
||||
- Due to a loophole and lack of oversight by regulation, Naked short selling can be used to manipulate the price of certain stocks
|
||||
- This type of trade illegal outside of specific situations involving Market Makers
|
||||
- Naked shorting was targeted for tighter regulation during the financial crisis of 2008 but enforcement has unfortunately not been effective in preventing it from manipulating the market
|
||||
|
||||
Basic flow of obtaining/closing a naked short position (kind of complex and involves two specific parties for 2 initial trades called a married put)
|
||||
|
||||
1. A Short Seller "A" buys 100 shares from a Market Maker "Z" who can technically sell them without locating them
|
||||
1. Market Maker is Naked Shorting the stock, and the Short Seller is receiving 100 synthetic shares
|
||||
2. Short Seller "A" now buys a [Put Option](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/p/putoption.asp) (1 options contract is worth 100 shares) from Market Maker "Z" who is the [writer](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/w/writing-an-option.asp) of the put
|
||||
1. Writing/selling a put nets +100 shares to the Market Maker, which results in the -100 shares that were naked shorted to be neutralized, so the Market Maker no is at a neutral position (Market Makers generally try to remain net 0 on trades
|
||||
2. Short Seller "A" now has 100 shares that can be short sold (they "borrowing" the synthetic shares the Market Maker effectively printed out of thin air), and one put contract that they can make money on as long as the price goes down
|
||||
3. The steps or the short seller are basically the same as a normal short sale now (2.2 steps 2-8), however, interest from the Short seller does not need to be paid to a lender (no one is formally lending it)
|
||||
1. The premium from the put being purchased from the Market Maker is how they benefit
|
||||
2. Short Seller "A" now has a short position that they can cover simply by buying 100 shares, which would cancel out the synthetic short position
|
||||
|
||||
3 - MARKET PARTICIPANTS
|
||||
=======================
|
||||
|
||||
3.1 - Retail Investors
|
||||
----------------------
|
||||
|
||||
- Retail Investors, also known as individual investors, are your average investors (not a company or organization)
|
||||
- Referred to as the "Dumb Money" by Wall Street and the "professional" financial community
|
||||
- Reddit communities
|
||||
- Notable subreddits
|
||||
- [r/Superstonk](https://old.reddit.com/r/Superstonk)
|
||||
- [r/gme](https://old.reddit.com/r/gme)
|
||||
- [r/amcstock](https://old.reddit.com/r/amcstock)
|
||||
- [r/wallstreetbets](https://old.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets)
|
||||
|
||||
3.2 - Institutional Investors
|
||||
-----------------------------
|
||||
|
||||
[Institutional Investors](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/i/institutionalinvestor.asp) are organizations that invest on individuals' behalf
|
||||
|
||||
- Examples of Institutional Investors
|
||||
- Endowment Funds
|
||||
- Commercial Banks
|
||||
- Mutual Funds
|
||||
- Hedge funds
|
||||
- Pension funds
|
||||
- Insurance companies
|
||||
|
||||
3.3 - Market Makers
|
||||
-------------------
|
||||
|
||||
- [Market Makers](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/m/marketmaker.asp) are very different from "Investors" and are a bit harder to explain but basically are there to increase [liquidity](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/l/liquidity.asp) in the market
|
||||
- When you buy and sell stock those trades are often going between you and a market maker
|
||||
- Market makers get "special rules" that enable them to keep liquidity in the market when there is low liquidity
|
||||
- Naked shorting is one of the options Market Makers have when navigating a trade that other investors do not have
|
||||
|
||||
3.4 - Prime Brokers
|
||||
-------------------
|
||||
|
||||
- A [Prime-Broker](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/p/primebrokerage.asp) is a bundled group of services that investment banks and other financial institutions offer to hedge funds and other large investment clients that need to be able to borrow securities or cash in order to engage in [netting](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/n/netting.asp) to achieve [absolute returns](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/a/absolutereturn.asp)
|
||||
- [Broker](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/b/broker.asp) vs [Prime-Broker](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/p/primebrokerage.asp)
|
||||
- A broker is an individual or entity that facilitates the purchase or sale of securities, such as the buying or selling of stocks and bonds for an investment account. A prime broker is a large institution that provides a multitude of services, from cash management to securities lending to risk management for other large institutions.
|
||||
- [Market Makers](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/m/marketmaker.asp) like go through Prime Brokers
|
||||
- The Prime Broker is who would Margin Call Shitadel if their short position gets too large or they bleed too much capital
|
||||
|
||||
3.5 - Clearinghouses
|
||||
====================
|
||||
|
||||
[Clearinghouses](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/clearinghouse.asp) are intermediaries between buyers and sellers
|
||||
|
||||
- Finalize transactions
|
||||
- Regulates delivery of assets
|
||||
- Reports on trading data
|
||||
|
||||
3.6* - MSM (Mainstream Media)
|
||||
=============================
|
||||
|
||||
Though not a traditional market participant (as in they are not trade/financial entities) the [MSM](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/m/media_effect.asp) is worth noting due to its role in influencing the financial atmosphere and landscape
|
||||
|
||||
4 - IMPORTANT MARKET/TRADE MECHANICS (MOASS)
|
||||
============================================
|
||||
|
||||
4.1 - Failures to Deliver (FTD)
|
||||
-------------------------------
|
||||
|
||||
- [FTDs](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/f/failuretodeliver.asp) occur when a buyer of a stock ends up not having the money to purchase the stock that they traded for OR, when a short seller does not own the stock at the time of settlement
|
||||
- FTDs are one of the main check-balances to naked shorting, so very high amounts of Failures to Deliver are indicative of this
|
||||
- Spoiler: GME and AMC have tons of FTDs reported
|
||||
|
||||
4.2 - Margin
|
||||
------------
|
||||
|
||||
- [Margin](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/m/margin.asp) is basically credit that that an investor can use to buy more stock
|
||||
- When you buy on margin you must stake the assets you have already purchased with your own cash as collateral
|
||||
- The amount of Margin you can have depends on the value of your collateral
|
||||
- The value of your collateral and cash but meet the margin requirements in order to continue to buy on margin
|
||||
- Keep in mind the value of your collateral can change if the price goes up or down and if the value of your collateral/cash drops below the margin requirement you will received a [Margin Call](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/m/margincall.asp) Another way to think about it:
|
||||
|
||||
1. Imagine I have $1,000 in stock
|
||||
2. You obtain a personal loan for another $1000
|
||||
3. To get the credit you stake your $1000 in stock (if you default it goes to the lender to cover your debt)
|
||||
4. You buy $1000 more stock with that loan (you now own $2000 in stocks, half in cash half on margin)
|
||||
5. You will pay interest on the $1000 on margin but if your investment makes more money than the interest then you are still profiting
|
||||
6. If your investment turns bad (lets say the price of your stock falls 50% and you are left with $1000) your lender can forcibly close out your positions (everything you bought in cash and staked as collateral along with what you bought on margin so that they can get the $1000 they loaned you back)
|
||||
|
||||
4.3 - Margin Call
|
||||
-----------------
|
||||
|
||||
- A Margin Call is a notice indicating you have a specific amount of time to deposit enough of your own funds to meet your margin requirement (if you cannot meet the requirement the lender is entitled to sell all of your holdings to recover what you borrowed
|
||||
|
||||
Margin Examples:
|
||||
|
||||
> This is a slightly complicated scenario that can be a little hard to follow. Give it a few reads if it doesn't make sense the first time, but basically, Margin is a credit line that you can use to buy more assets (effectively a loan backed by collateral and cash in your own account). If you buy assets with it, you have to pay back what you borrowed, whether the value of your investment goes up or down (if the investment goes up in value, you make more than you normally would, but if the investment goes down in value, you lose more than you otherwise would have without margin).
|
||||
>
|
||||
> This gets even more (or less maybe) complicated when you have short positions AND long positions, like most institutional investors. To have short positions, I still need to have margin, but I do not need to use it to buy stocks, It can act as a buffer if I have a short position on a stock that is increasing in value (with a short position, if the price of something I short goes up, I am losing money), and if it gets too high, it can run against my margin line, causing a margin call.
|
||||
|
||||
GAIN: Long Positions
|
||||
|
||||
1. Imagine I have $1000 in stock XXX (let's say 10 shares worth $100 each)
|
||||
2. My broker may lend me margin credit line equal to the value of my assets (so $1000 in margin), and let's say they give me a margin requirement of $800, meaning that the value of my non-margin assets (the ones I bought with my money) must be above $800 in order to keep using margin (so as long as stock XXX stays above $80 a share, then I will not get a margin call for being below the requirement)
|
||||
3. I then choose to use the margin, buying 10 more shares of stock XXX for $100 each, so I now have 20 shares of stock XXX, valued at 100$ a piece
|
||||
4. If the price of stock XXX goes up to %25 per share, and I sell all 20 shares, I just profited $500 (+$25 on 20 shares)
|
||||
1. In this case, closing the position clears me from the margin debt, as I am no longer using it in an open position
|
||||
2. If I had not used margin, I would have only walked away with $250 in profit ($25 per share on 10 shares), but instead I made $500, and paid back the credit, plus a little bit of interest.
|
||||
5. Yay.
|
||||
|
||||
LOSS: Long Positions
|
||||
|
||||
1. Imagine I have $1000 in stock XXX (let's say 10 shares worth $100 each)
|
||||
2. My broker may lend me margin credit line equal to the value of my assets (so $1000 in margin), and let's say they give me a margin requirement of $800, meaning that the value of my non-margin assets (the ones I bought with my money) must be above $800 in order to keep using margin (so as long as stock XXX stays above $80 a share, then I will not get a margin call for being below the requirement)
|
||||
3. I then choose to use the margin, buying 10 more shares of stock XXX for $100 each, so I now have 20 shares of stock XXX, valued at 100$ a piece
|
||||
4. If the price of stock XXX goes down %25, bringing the value per share down to $75 a share, the value of my total position is now $1500, and the value of my non-margin assets is $750, which is below the margin requirement (keep in mind, I borrowed $1000, so that is still the amount I have to pay back)
|
||||
5. My lender will give me a margin call, indicating I have two business days to deposit 50$ into my account in order to meet the margin requirement
|
||||
1. If I have the cash to deposit the extra $50 would take my assets to $800 ($750 in stock XXX + 50$ cash)
|
||||
1. If the price of stock XXX recovered to above $80 per share, it could also satisfy the requirement
|
||||
2. If I do not have the cash to deposit, then I am in trouble, as after two days, they are allowed to liquidate (sell) the assets I bought with my own money, as well as the assets I bought on margin
|
||||
1. Let's say this happens, all my borrowed assets are sold first to cover my $1000 loan (since the price of stock XXX was only $750, it only covers $750 of my $1000 margin line
|
||||
2. I now have $750 left in assets of Stock X, but I still owe money from margin, so my lender is entitled to sell $250 work of my shares in order to get their full $1000 back
|
||||
3. I am now left with $500 total ($750 in 10 shares of stock XXX - $250)
|
||||
6. Not Yay
|
||||
|
||||
LOSS: Short and Long Positions
|
||||
|
||||
THIS IS THE RELEVANT ONE TO GME/AMC
|
||||
|
||||
1. Imagine I have $1000 in stock XXX (let's say 10 shares worth $100 each)
|
||||
2. My broker may lend me margin credit line equal to the value of my assets (so $1000 in margin), and let's say they give me a margin requirement of $800, meaning that the value of my non-margin assets (the ones I bought with my money) must be above $800 in order to keep using margin
|
||||
3. Instead of using the margin to buy more, I instead short 10 shares of stock YYY which is at $50 a share currently (giving me $500 in extra cash), which I use to buy 5 more shares of stock X
|
||||
1. I am now long 15 shares of stock XXX valued at $1500 and short 10 shares of stock YYY valued at -$500 (negative $500) for a net value of $1000
|
||||
2. No margin is actively committed to open positions, and I am still using my $1000
|
||||
4. Now, lets say a short squeeze happens involving stock Y, causing the price to skyrocket to $200 per share
|
||||
1. My short position is now -$2000 (10 shares of -$200 each)
|
||||
5. My net account value is now $-500 ($1500 - $2000) which is now using my margin, and because my account's value is no longer above $800, I no longer meet margin requirements so I get a margin call
|
||||
6. If I cannot balance my account, the lender will liquidate my $1500 in stock XXX in order to pay the -$2000 I owe, leaving me with -$500 left in debt
|
||||
1. I have now defaulted, as I cannot pay the $500
|
||||
7. Now that I have defaulted, the lender who gave me margin owns my short positions, meaning they are now short whatever was left
|
||||
1. The lender can now navigate the short positions however they want (they can hold them and hope the price goes down, and cover to close them, or they can close them immediately, costing them the whole $500 I still owed)
|
||||
8. GUH! (Translation if you are not WSB: Ah @#$%)
|
||||
|
||||
4.4 - Margin Calls Who Calls Who
|
||||
--------------------------------
|
||||
|
||||
- Margin calls happen at levels 1-4 when the cell to the left cannot meet margin requirements
|
||||
- Broker Margin Calls Retail Traders
|
||||
- Prime Brokers Margin Call Brokers, Hedge Funds, and Market Makers
|
||||
- The NSCC Margin Calls Prime Brokers
|
||||
- Defaults roll up left to right
|
||||
- If Retail Trader defaults, Broker must take on their leftover positions
|
||||
- If Broker, Hedge Fund, or Market Maker defaults, the Prime Broker must take on their leftover positions
|
||||
- If Prime Broker Defaults, the NSCC must take on Position
|
||||
- If the NSCC Defaults, the Fed must take on the position
|
||||
|
||||
| Level 1 | Level 2 | Level 3 | Level 4 | Level 4 |
|
||||
| :-- | :-- | :-- | :-- | :-- |
|
||||
| Retail Trader | Broker | Prime Broker | NSCC (DTCC) | Fed (JPOW) |
|
||||
| x | Market Maker | Prime Broker | NSCC (DTCC) | Fed (JPOW) |
|
||||
| x | Hedge Fund | Prime Broker | NSCC (DTCC) | Fed (JPOW) |
|
||||
|
||||
4.5 - Short Squeeze
|
||||
-------------------
|
||||
|
||||
- A [Short Squeeze](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/shortsqueeze.asp) is a market event that occurs when there is a large short position on a stock whose price rapidly increases higher than expected, normally due to a catalyst
|
||||
- During the short squeeze, the losses of those who have short positions continue to increase higher it goes
|
||||
- Since they owe shares, the cost to cover their position increases depending on how high the price goes (there is theoretically no limit on how high a stock can go)
|
||||
- As market participants who are short on the stock buy to cover, supply decreases and demand increases, causing the price to increase even more rapidly
|
||||
- While short sellers are scrambling to cover their positions, the rapid price change may entice investors who are not short on the stock to buy it in order to make a quick profit
|
||||
- Again, lowering supply and increasing demand
|
||||
|
||||
VI. The Mother of All Short Squeezes (MOASS)
|
||||
============================================
|
||||
|
||||
Explanation
|
||||
===========
|
||||
|
||||
Now that we have gone through the many important terms, we can get to the theory behind MOASS.
|
||||
|
||||
Due excessive short-selling and naked shorting of GME by certain market participants (primarily large hedge funds and market makers), retail investors and long institutional investors collectively own a number of shares that exceeds the the float. The amount of shares that are currently owned is theorized to range roughly between 200%-400% of the float if not more, meaning that 100%-300% of the float has a corresponding short position (mostly naked shorts). For context, most stocks generally have around 1% Short Interest, and 10%-20% short interest is considered to be excessive, let alone over 100% of it.
|
||||
|
||||
Short sellers must eventually close, or cover, their short position
|
||||
|
||||
- The only way to do that is to buy the shares owned by the investors who are long
|
||||
- in the meantime Short-sellers are paying interest on that short position until it is closed proportional to the cost of the shares, which bleeds their capital over time
|
||||
- Unfortunately for the short sellers, the owners of the shares ARE NOT obligated to sell their shares.
|
||||
- The short-sellers, however, ARE obligated to buy in order to close their position (or else keep paying interest)
|
||||
|
||||
So what happens if no one is selling the shares they are "long" on, but short sellers need to buy them?
|
||||
|
||||
- Supply and Demand
|
||||
- With very little supply and high demand, the price of a stock can increase far beyond its fundamental value
|
||||
- If short sellers receive a margin call due to no longer meeting their margin requirement and are unable to meet it in time, their assets will be forcibly liquidated by their lender in order to pay back the margin, as well as close out the position if the borrower defaults
|
||||
|
||||
If you are wondering why an organization would abusively short a stock like this if they eventually have to cover their positions:
|
||||
|
||||
- If a company goes bankrupt or gets delisted from the stock market:
|
||||
- The short sellers DO NOT have to close the position
|
||||
- All of the proceeds from the short sale effectively disappear from their books
|
||||
- They do not even have to pay taxes on this profit
|
||||
|
||||
Short positions amount to the total number of long positions minus the float, meaning (based on the theorized range) that somewhere between ~56-170 Million shares will need to be bought in order to close all short positions
|
||||
|
||||
- It is expected that the members with short positions (hedge funds and market makers who have been naked shorting the stock) will be unable to cover their short positions, resulting in a situation where their lenders, all the way up to the clearinghouse (DTCC) will have to sort out the positions
|
||||
- If the DTCC/NSCC is forced to unwind the positions, it is widely believed that they will rapidly cover short positions at whatever price they are available for (this is how their systems are said to handle a member default), liquidating whatever assets are necessary from the defaulting member
|
||||
|
||||
Consideration
|
||||
=============
|
||||
|
||||
This is a totally unprecedented situation, so, in truth, there is a lot of uncertainty around what wind-down will look like once this gets to the Prime Brokers (major banks) and NSCC, as well as around how high the price peak will reach. There is a real risk of broad negative impact across the entire market because of this and the current Repo Rates and margin debt.
|
||||
|
||||
A few things I think are safe to assume are:
|
||||
|
||||
- Before anything happens that will cap or negatively affect the MOASS, all of the Hedge Funds and Market Makers who conspired to manipulate the market will likely have been bankrupted and eliminated from the market landscape by then
|
||||
- Prime Brokers will have been dealt a massive blow (like Credit Suisse after Archegos Collapse by way worse) that should hopefully ensure regulators tie up every loophole that was exploited to manipulate the market and harm it
|
||||
- The peak will reach higher than any other short squeeze in history and will likely never be beaten in the future (EVER)
|
||||
|
||||
VII. Final thoughts...
|
||||
======================
|
||||
|
||||
This is the GME MOASS thesis. GME is a stock that stands to hit an unprecedented price point due to the fact that manipulators of the market have failed to bankrupt GameStop thanks in huge part to [the Legendary Keith Gill AKA u/DeepFuckingValue](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Keith_Gill), [Ryan Cohen](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ryan_Cohen), [Michael Burry](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Michael_Burry), and all of the GME investors who took part in this saga. It may not be today, this week, or even this month, but one day soon, these toxic participants have no choice but to buy the stock to close out their short positions.
|
||||
|
||||
In some schools of thought, it is thought that these participants over-estimated how "reasonable" retail investors can be (who could be dumb enough to hold a stock as it fell from almost $500 to $40?). In truth, these manipulators didn't understand the demographic they were fighting with. Gamers are some of the most stubborn people on the planet. These are individuals who will sink tens of thousands of hours into the same video game because "they just like it". Well, "we like the stock", and to us, the adversaries on Wall Street just are just another "boss". We may have needed to retry a couple times, but we always win eventually. On top of that, they pissed off reddit, and under no circumstances, should you ever piss off reddit.
|
||||
|
||||
At this point, if you are still reading this, know that it is up to you to decide your next move, whether that is to do some due diligence of your own, walk away, or say screw it and buy a few (or a lot of) shares just in case we are right. Many of us have set our floor (minimum amount of acceptable gains) at $20,000,000 per share, and you might think that is crazy, but in truth, we know we can pick our own price if we hold long enough. We don't care if anyone else buys or not, because we know the outcome is inevitable. Time is running out for the toxic market participants involved, and even the news can't hide that we are on the brink of a massive market event that will ripple through the entire global financial system, and we will probably never see an event like this again in our lifetime.
|
||||
|
||||
This is a fight Wall Street, Shitadel, Melvin Capital, and ever other toxic party is not going to win against the "dumb money". Chances are this will truly be "THE MOASS", meaning there will never be another like it in our lifetime (or ever). While the conditions in play (the ability for big money to brutally manipulate the market) enabled what may end up being the greatest transfer of wealth in history, actual reformation to prevent a landscape like this from forming again is probably best long term (I say this as a pragmatist, and am honestly very far from an idealist). If you want to influence reform, Buy, Hold, Vote. If you are just here for the tendies, Buy, Hold, Vote.
|
||||
|
||||
VIII. TL;DR
|
||||
===========
|
||||
|
||||
1. Toxic Market Participants have built up massive [short positions](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/short.asp) made through [Naked Shorting](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/n/nakedshorting.asp)
|
||||
2. Retail caught on to this strategy and discovered it can backfire if the company being shorted does not go bankrupt, especially if shares are bought and held indefinitely
|
||||
3. Rules and regulations have implemented by the DTCC and its subsidiaries have been geared towards preventing market collapse, as well as to minimize the ability to perform illegal trades (naked shorting)
|
||||
4. The SEC is also doing more to enforce compliance with the "rules"
|
||||
5. The manipulators are at the mercy of a vicious trade cycle (t+21 FTD Cycle) that is forcing those with naked short positions to perform actions to [cover](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/shortcovering.asp) (buy back shares that are short), or risk regulatory consequences
|
||||
6. This act of rapid covering drives up the price, making it more expensive to cover during the next cycle if the share price continues to increase week over week
|
||||
7. Eventually, the prices of GME will get so high that prime brokers/clearing houses will have no choice but to [Margin Call](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/m/margincall.asp) these participants which most likely will not be affordable due to the nature of [Short Squeezes](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/shortsqueeze.asp), causing them to default
|
||||
8. The [Prime-Brokers](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/p/primebrokerage.asp) will then take on the position, and if the Prime Brokers cannot cover them and also defaults, the NSCC will be next to attempt to settle all positions left over based on their [Recovery and Wind-down Plan (p42)](https://www.dtcc.com/~/media/Files/Downloads/legal/policy-and-compliance/NSCC_Disclosure_Framework.pdf)
|
||||
9. If NSCC cannot afford to close everything with the money reserved for this type of situation, they the Fed must navigate the remaining positions (potentially via printing money/bailout)
|
||||
|
||||
IX. STILL TL;DR
|
||||
===============
|
||||
|
||||
Margin Calls happen across the market and force all market participants with short positions in GME to cover or go bankrupt if they cannot afford to. The NSCC's systems that will settle positions after mass defaults liquidates all short hedge funds and covers as much GME as it can. If the NSCC cannot pay everything, it fails up to the Fed and JPOW to print money to settle the trades.
|
||||
|
||||
X. Hedgies, velkommen til helvete. Vi kommer for tårene dine.
|
||||
=============================================================
|
||||
|
||||
PDF Link - I recommend accessing through an incognito browser so that no one else is able to see your email address if you are logged into google (I initially had this on OneDrive, which did not do this, however, shills seem to have gotten my Microsoft account blacklisted so I cannot access OneDrive now lol):
|
||||
|
||||
<https://drive.google.com/file/d/18SDUrEd-wNjKDwblo3ykoIxn627Vni0G/view?usp=sharing>
|
||||
|
||||
EDIT: updated on 6/13/2021 to version 2.0 (kept the same post since it is referenced in a few places).
|
@ -0,0 +1,196 @@
|
||||
Let's Talk Dates....the Last Few Weeks of June Are Turning Me On......I Know We Don't do Dates But Here Are Some Dates.....and End Game Predictions
|
||||
===========================================================================================================================================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/Ginger_Libra](https://www.reddit.com/user/Ginger_Libra/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nxu1ck/lets_talk_datesthe_last_few_weeks_of_june_are/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
[Education 👨🏫 | Data 🔢](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22Education%20%F0%9F%91%A8%E2%80%8D%F0%9F%8F%AB%20%7C%20Data%20%F0%9F%94%A2%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||
Apes, you ever held something for 6 months and wake up one day fucking sick and tired of Games Kenny plays? That was me on Wednesday. For the love of Harambe, I've had enough of the corruption.
|
||||
|
||||
Well, strap in. I'm jacked to my tits and I've got some dates for you.
|
||||
|
||||
Saturday June 12th-Tuesday June 15th- [E3, biggest gaming industry event usually with lots of good news and announcements. PC Mag has the deets for you.](https://www.pcgamer.com/e3-2021-schedule-dates-lineup/) Thanks to several Gamer Apes in the comments.
|
||||
|
||||
Rumor: managers at GameStop have been told to expect something big the 15th to coincide with E3 but haven't been told what. See comments.
|
||||
|
||||
Monday June 14th- Small T+21 FTD date from May 21 (according to some monkeys on Discord. Correct if wrong. It's not big volume).
|
||||
|
||||
Am leaving this so you can keep an eye on it but [u/criand](https://www.reddit.com/u/criand/) may have disapproved his own FTD theory for the new, sexy, holy fuck net capital theory. [And holy fuck, I am jacked. Go read it.](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/ny2ov4/a_revisit_to_net_capital_what_is_truly_driving/?utm_source=share&amp;amp;amp;amp;utm_medium=ios_app&amp;amp;amp;amp;utm_name=iossmf)
|
||||
|
||||
Tuesday June 15th- [Emergency Meeting at the Fed](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nxnyxf/emergency_fed_meeting_called_for_tuesday_june_15/?utm_source=share&amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;utm_medium=mweb) credit to Smart Ape [u/TreeSquid007](https://www.reddit.com/u/TreeSquid007/) for reading good.
|
||||
|
||||
*Wut doing JPow?*
|
||||
|
||||
Edit: apes in the comments say this is a normally scheduled meeting with standard language. But you know they are talking about us.
|
||||
|
||||
June 15th-16th- JPow do a meet about raising interest rates. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC).
|
||||
|
||||
To those of you who can only focus on the next date out of all the dates and rocket fuel here and have to comment, fuck off. Tell your wife to top up my cell phone so I can FaceTime her tonight. She keeps begging me to switch teams. She says you've got a tool you don't know how to use.
|
||||
|
||||
Now keep reading.
|
||||
|
||||
Friday June 18- [Quadruple Witching Day](https://investinganswers.com/dictionary/q/quadruple-witching)
|
||||
|
||||
*What Is Quadruple Witching?*
|
||||
|
||||
Quadruple witching (also called "quad witching") refers to the third Friday of every March, June, September and December. On these days, derivatives (e.g. market index futures, options futures, stock options, stock futures) expire, usually resulting in increased volatility.
|
||||
|
||||
You know what I like? Volatility. You don't scare me anymore, Kenny. I'm into that shit. I've got daddy and mommy issues.
|
||||
|
||||
I know the last one was a letdown. Don't focus on one date.
|
||||
|
||||
Edit: Wrinkly Ape [u/Francis46n2WSB](https://www.reddit.com/u/Francis46n2WSB/) pointed out last Quad Witching wasn't normal and Kenny was stressed.
|
||||
|
||||
*The last quadruple witching day was not a letdown, it had an enormous explosion in volatility.
|
||||
|
||||
What happened was, if you check the charts you'll notice, Kenny and friends massively suppressed the the price so that the volatility wouldn't be noticed. I compare it to diving and laying over a grenade.
|
||||
|
||||
This time I think they're running out of stuff to contain the blast.*
|
||||
|
||||
Also on Friday June 18th [Some crazy junk bond shit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/ns7k6q/could_gamestops_liftoff_unravel_corporate_junk/?utm_medium=android_app&amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;utm_source=share) that everyone is balls deep in except us and Goldman Sacks. Thanks to Literate Ape [u/Get-It-Got](https://www.reddit.com/u/Get-It-Got/) for this one. Go put some wrinkles on this one. OP is asking for more eyes.
|
||||
|
||||
Also Friday June 18th- tons of SPY puts. Usually about a billion. At 60 billion. Thanks to SPY ape [u/rabsgood](https://www.reddit.com/u/rabsgood/). We aren't sure what this means. Could be nothing. Could be fuckery.
|
||||
|
||||
Monday June 21st- NSCC 002 most likely falls into place. You know what that means? More on NSCC 002 below. Marge is a demanding bitch.
|
||||
|
||||
Also June 21st- ~~Aussie~~ Ape Matt Furlong becomes CEO of GameStop.
|
||||
|
||||
Detail Ape clarified Matty isn't from Oz....just ran the Amazon for them for 2 years. 8 years total at Amazon. Welcome back to cold Christmas, my dude. I hear Texas has snow now.
|
||||
|
||||
Tuesday June 22nd to Thursday June 24th- Net Capital, aka margin call spikes. [u/criand](https://www.reddit.com/u/criand/) has redone his FTD predictions to include Net Capital, AKA margin call requirements. [here.](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/ny2ov4/a_revisit_to_net_capital_what_is_truly_driving/?utm_source=share&amp;amp;amp;amp;utm_medium=ios_app&amp;amp;amp;amp;utm_name=iossmf)
|
||||
|
||||
Wednesday June 23rd and Thursday June 24- Big Wrinkly Brain Ape [u/criand](https://www.reddit.com/u/criand/) says another FTD cycle. [Danger Zone 2 here](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nwgzw7/danger_zone_part_2_shorts_are_terrified_of_a_310/) and [comment from today here](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nxajjj/comment/h1fns10) **see above for new Net Capital updates from criand.
|
||||
|
||||
Thursday June 24th- Kenny wants to look clean and tidy for FINRA. Cleans up his shorts to make a pretty for the paper. Short interest report day from [FINRA. ](https://www.finra.org/filing-reporting/regulatory-filing-systems/short-interest)often causes the price to rise. It's GME so expect it to fall, even if they reveal it's shorted 2000% (they won't). Thanks to new redditor [u/Superstonkfollow](https://www.reddit.com/u/Superstonkfollow/) for the message.
|
||||
|
||||
Look at previous FINA SI receipt dates. 27 Jan. 9 Feb. 24 Feb. 9 Mar. 24 Mar. 12 Apr. 26 Apr. 11 May. 25 May. 9 June. Overlap with the T+21/ T+35 on 24 Feb, 26 Apr, 25 May. [When the dates align, the wombo combo happens](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nf22qz/theory_on_the_ftd_loop_missing_link_a_t35_surge/?utm_source=reddit&amp;amp;amp;amp;utm_medium=usertext&amp;amp;amp;amp;utm_name=stocks&amp;amp;amp;amp;utm_content=t1_h0qiqzc) [u/criand](https://www.reddit.com/u/criand/) got another wombo wrinkle. Thanks again to [u/superstonkfollow](https://www.reddit.com/u/superstonkfollow/) for putting all that together.
|
||||
|
||||
Friday June 25th- JPow wants 715 BILLION in reverse repo payments back. [Holy Fuck. ](https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h41/current/h41.pdf)Thanks to Detail Ape [u/aquadisaster](https://www.reddit.com/u/aquadisaster/) for the wrinkle.
|
||||
|
||||
Also Friday June 25th- Mr. Russell Gets a Extreme Stonk Makeover..... after hours. See [this thread](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nxjvpg/gme_russell_1000_rebalance_day_and_t21_and_t35/) from Wrinkly Ape [u/vierzehnter](https://www.reddit.com/u/vierzehnter/) for in depth Mr. Russell wardrobe change analysis.
|
||||
|
||||
But the summary is this: paraphrasing OG Wrinky Ape d/lauer.....Russell rebalance is volatile AF.
|
||||
|
||||
Papa Cohen said to buckle up.
|
||||
|
||||
Monday June 28th First day of trading after Mr. Russell gets a makeover
|
||||
|
||||
AND
|
||||
|
||||
T+35 FTD date according to Math Ape [u/Unsure_if_relevant](https://www.reddit.com/u/Unsure_if_relevant/) Check out criands new [Net Capital 21 Day Loop here.](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/ny2ov4/a_revisit_to_net_capital_what_is_truly_driving/?utm_source=share&amp;amp;amp;amp;utm_medium=ios_app&amp;amp;amp;amp;utm_name=iossmf)
|
||||
|
||||
EDIT: wrong year. Another ape caught it. June 2023. ~~Wednesday June 30th-US switches from LIBOR to SOFR. Fuck if I remember what any of this means. LIBOR is the The London Inter-bank Offered Rate. SOFR is Secured Overnight Financing Rate.
|
||||
|
||||
This is the rate which determines how much it costs BofA to borrow from Wells, etc. Ape do a wrinkle and link and explain more, pls and thank.
|
||||
|
||||
New redidior [u/SuperStonkFollow](https://www.reddit.com/u/SuperStonkFollow/) linked me to Big Wrinkly Mod Ape [u/sharkbaitlol](https://www.reddit.com/u/sharkbaitlol/)'s Magnum Opus [Chaos Theory involving LIBOR and SOFR](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/mseyai/chaos_theory_the_final_connection/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf) and holy fuck. I can't sum it up. Go read it again.
|
||||
|
||||
Holy fuck moment: SOFR the last time it was attempted to transitioned into (in 2019) almost IMPLODED the market due to many realizing that banks and others could not handle a higher interest rate (based off the DAILY TRESURY YIELD RATE) versus the fabricated one that banks provide.
|
||||
|
||||
This can be postponed......again. someone call JPow and tell him we are done fucking around.~~
|
||||
|
||||
LIBOR to SOFR isn't happening until June 30, 2023.
|
||||
|
||||
But I'll still jacked.
|
||||
|
||||
Add this with reverse repo and I'm jacked.
|
||||
|
||||
Monday July 5th just a reminder the casino is closed ~~so that Kenny and Steve and Gabe and Mikey can have a much deserved day of rest~~ Murica celebrates its birthday, Bitches.
|
||||
|
||||
Wednesday July 14th GameStops NFT on E-network word I can't say ~~but I can't find thread. Linky me, pls.~~ High tech Ape says more [here.](https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/comments/nkzqyv/gamestop_crypto_or_nft_to_go_live_july_14_2021_at/?utm_source=share&amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;utm_medium=ios_app&amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;utm_name=iossmf)
|
||||
|
||||
Friday July 16 [Crazy high option volume](https://gme.crazyawesomecompany.com/)
|
||||
|
||||
Also Friday July 16th- crazy amount of SPY puts. Could be nothing. Could be sus. Keep an eye peeled.
|
||||
|
||||
Monday July 26th- 21 Day Net Capital cycle. Fresh off the press from criand. [Here.](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/ny2ov4/a_revisit_to_net_capital_what_is_truly_driving/?utm_source=share&amp;amp;amp;utm_medium=ios_app&amp;amp;amp;utm_name=iossmf)
|
||||
|
||||
Monday August 16th- T+21 for the July 16th giant tidal wave of options
|
||||
|
||||
Friday August 20th- T+35 for July 16th tidal wave 🌊
|
||||
|
||||
Do you see why I'm jacked??
|
||||
|
||||
Now a note on NSCC 002/801 because everyone seems to be confused. This is *the* margin call rule.
|
||||
|
||||
Marge: Hello, Kenny? It's Marge.
|
||||
|
||||
Kenny, peeing his pants: Yes, Marge?
|
||||
|
||||
Marge: Pay me more money. You've got 1 hour.
|
||||
|
||||
No more days to fuck around and come up with funds.
|
||||
|
||||
Now I want to clarify here because I see a lot of misconception floating around this jungle about Marge.
|
||||
|
||||
When Marge calls, hedgies can meet their margin, meaning they can deposit more funds with their co-conspirators the DTCC and NSCC and keep on trading.
|
||||
|
||||
A margin call doesn't automatically mean default or MOASS.
|
||||
|
||||
Funny, cause if Marge calls my dumb ass I can't trade the rest of the day until I get my balance over 25k, so most likely out two days while my wire goes through. But Kenny and Steve and Gabe are special and previously they had days to meet their margin call.
|
||||
|
||||
Apes seem to think that when Marge calls, it's game over for the hedgies. Not true. They've probably already been margin called and met their margin requirements several times already. But now they only have 1 hour.
|
||||
|
||||
It's when they can't meet their margin calls that shit gets fun. Once 002 is in place, 1 hour. I expect to see more sell offs of their long positions when this happens. And I can't wait. Isn't Citadel long on Tesla and Burry short?
|
||||
|
||||
Now, when they can't meet their margin (or supplemental liquidity requirements) that's when they default. Default is what we are waiting for, my ape relations.
|
||||
|
||||
When default happens, that's when the DTC computer starts closing positions. Computer don't care how many zeros. [More about that process here.](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nvrouv/i_feel_like_this_deserves_its_own_post_remember/?utm_source=share&amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;utm_medium=mweb)
|
||||
|
||||
Also remember there are multiple hedgies playing fuck you in the ass here.
|
||||
|
||||
My guess (and I'm a dumb internet ape so don't listen to me or take this as financial advice) is that when the price skyrockets, the not quite as dumb hedgies will try to get out first and save themselves and add fuel to the fire.
|
||||
|
||||
Expect trading halts. Expect wild swings. Expect the rest of the market in the red and VIX going crazy. That's when you know MOASS is here.
|
||||
|
||||
Note I'm not saying MOASS will start when 002 falls into place. I'm saying 002 tightens the noose.
|
||||
|
||||
NSCC 002 is the rule that makes 801 actually work, in case you're keeping track.
|
||||
|
||||
Thanks to Smart Astronaut Ape [u/MoonTellsMeASecret](https://www.reddit.com/u/MoonTellsMeASecret/) for this [801/NSCC 002 Ape Guide Here](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/n5idj9/801_and_nscc002/?utm_source=share&amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;utm_medium=ios_app&amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;utm_name=iossmf).
|
||||
|
||||
Now some of you wrinkly brains are wondering where is DTC 005.
|
||||
|
||||
[u/Existing-Reference53](https://www.reddit.com/u/Existing-Reference53/) did an email [with the DTC](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/ngwhzu/where_is_srdtc2021005_the_update/) and they say it's being reformatted and posted soon.
|
||||
|
||||
DTC 005 is the rule that says Bad Kenny can't hide his dirty undies in the options anymore. Some apes say it's mission critical. Some say not. I'm too dumb to weight in on this.
|
||||
|
||||
Wut doing [Mikey](https://www.dtcc.com/about/leadership/board)? DTC need to borrow my paid license for Microsoft Word to hurry up that formatting? DM me. I'll hook you up.
|
||||
|
||||
But I smell a fucky here. If it is the lynchpin and I was DTC Mikey and also a co-conspirator in massive fraud (Lawyer Ape Wes said trillions in fraud in our lifetimes) I would hold it back as long I could too. My guess is they are waiting for the first wave of defaults and it will magically be done with formatting. According to the emails once it's published it is approved.
|
||||
|
||||
Which leads me to this. My End Game Theory: No one wants to be a market manipulator or set off The Greatest Transfer of Wealth EVER. No one will force it. Not BlackRock. Not the DTC. Not GameStop or Papa Cohen.
|
||||
|
||||
It will happen when it happens. No dates, but taking all these things into account.....soon.
|
||||
|
||||
Kenny and Steve and Gabe and Mikey want it to be bad enough they can get a bailout. Then they can blame us.
|
||||
|
||||
[That scene in The Big Short about the bailout rattles in my mind.](https://youtu.be/RvI5mN3RIAI) Steve Carrell says "Paulson and Bernanke just left the White House. There's going to be a bailout."
|
||||
|
||||
[Guess where former Fed Chair Ben Bernanke works now?](https://www.citadel.com/leadership/dr-ben-s-bernanke/) He's probably helping write the bailout as we speak. Remember, this is bigger than Kenny and Steve and Gabe. This is also Mikey at the DTC. It's the prime brokers. It's the banks. The ones who allowed illegal naked shorting to happen.
|
||||
|
||||
Also. Don't forget. Fed Repo rate breaking records daily. Elliot Wave guy says up. Sign Guy is epic. DFV still in. Papa Cohen in the Cap'n seat of the rocket.
|
||||
|
||||
Your homework this weekend: hydrate. Play. Leave the basement and get some sun on your skin. For fucks sake, watch The Big Short if you haven't already. It's free in the US on Hoopla with a library card if you're temporarily broke AF (because you're about to be rich). If someone will willingly and enthusiastically consent to shagging you then do that too.
|
||||
|
||||
Film Noir Ape [u/Best_Account](https://www.reddit.com/u/Best_Account/) also recommends you watch [The Inside Job (YT)](https://youtu.be/T2IaJwkqgPk) and [Princes of the Yen (YT)](https://youtu.be/5-IZZxyb1GI) to the weekend watch list.
|
||||
|
||||
I also recommend Margin Call and Billions. And The Big Short book is even crazier than the movie.
|
||||
|
||||
If you've got any other important dates let me know and I'll add them here. Them just corrected to 🌝. It's a sign.
|
||||
|
||||
Past 4pm my time. Signing off for a strong beverage.
|
||||
|
||||
Buckle up.
|
||||
|
||||
TL,DR: just skim for FFS.
|
||||
|
||||
Lots of fuel in the rocket. Andromeda called. She's ready for the apes.
|
||||
|
||||
Thanks for all the awards! I've had so many anonymous ones I'm going to pretend both DFV and Papa Cohen have sent at least one each.
|
||||
|
||||
Edit again: Jesus H. Roosevelt Christ. I mention Quadruple Witching Day as 1 of 20 other dates with things going on and it's all some of you can see. STFU and read the rest.
|
@ -0,0 +1,112 @@
|
||||
Cohen has reached the same conclusion as u/Criand's T+21 Net Capital thesis: An analysis of tweet activity and corporate announcements
|
||||
======================================================================================================================================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/Nalifi](https://www.reddit.com/user/Nalifi/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nycuk4/cohen_has_reached_the_same_conclusion_as_ucriands/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
[DD 👨🔬](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22DD%20%F0%9F%91%A8%E2%80%8D%F0%9F%94%AC%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||
*This is not financial advice. I am a retard who always lets one banana in the bunch he buys go bad because I can't time eating the bananas correctly.*
|
||||
|
||||
This post will re-analyze Cohen's tweets and Gamestop's positive price movements in relation to [u/Criand](https://www.reddit.com/u/Criand/)'s new T+21 net capital thesis.
|
||||
|
||||
First of all I would like to lead you to Criand's new post, "Revisit to Net Capital".
|
||||
|
||||
<https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/ny2ov4/a_revisit_to_net_capital_what_is_truly_driving/>
|
||||
|
||||
I believe that TA does not apply to our favorite stock (but look forward to Elliot Wave guys proving me wrong), but the initial T+21/T+35 cycles were unique in that they don't rely on normal stock behavior, and instead analyze the unique situation GME is in (excessive shorting, FTD's). Additionally, it has had almost a 100% success rate at predicting price movements.
|
||||
|
||||
I believe the net capital requirement thesis ties this together by eliminating loose ends in the previous theory, such as the shaky T+35 price movements, in addition to providing a solid explanation as to *why* these movements occur.
|
||||
|
||||
I decided to take this opportunity to revisit speculation on Cohen's tweets/Gamestop major news, their timing, and analyze if these were the causes of price movements (and thus not the actual cycles). I decided to investigate by going full retard on my only day off and investigating each news report compared to the net capital cycle. The result has my *tits absolutely, indescribably jacked***:**
|
||||
|
||||
If you'd like to follow along, let's open Criand's beautiful chart -
|
||||
|
||||
<https://preview.redd.it/xh4u2ugmfs471.png?width=1438&format=png&auto=webp&s=85188eccc2bf3841bb98e37e5be98b8badcc01c7>
|
||||
|
||||
and take a look with some positive Gamestop news catalysts and tweets from our favorite Ryan Cohen. I'll keep this area to data only and leave speculations for the end.
|
||||
|
||||
1\. The Ice Cream Cone
|
||||
|
||||
<https://twitter.com/ryancohen/status/1364650709669601289>
|
||||
|
||||
Ryan Cohen tweets the famous ice cream cone on Feb 24, lining up perfectly with the T+21 net capital requirement date. The price rockets that day.
|
||||
|
||||
2\. Voluntary redemption of senior notes is announced.
|
||||
|
||||
<https://news.gamestop.com/news-releases/news-release-details/gamestop-announces-voluntary-early-redemption-senior-notes-0>
|
||||
|
||||
GME announces a voluntary early redemption of senior notes on April 13th. Price spike is April 13 AH -- T+14 date is April 15th. The positive news does not correlate with price movement.
|
||||
|
||||
*Side note:* DFV Final Yolo update: April 16th
|
||||
|
||||
3\. Cohen train tweet.
|
||||
|
||||
<https://twitter.com/ryancohen/status/1386485746916380673>
|
||||
|
||||
April 25th: Cohen tweets a train coming. South Park. This is one day before the T+21 or 75% Net capital cycle. Additionally:
|
||||
|
||||
4\. Gamestop announces completion of the At-The-Market equity offering program.
|
||||
|
||||
<https://news.gamestop.com/news-releases/news-release-details/gamestop-completes-market-equity-offering-program#:~:text=GameStop%20disclosed%20on%20April%205,time%20through%20the%20ATM%20Offering>.
|
||||
|
||||
This news is placed directly on the T+21 date. *Price spikes.*
|
||||
|
||||
May 3rd; Gamestop completes voluntary early redemption of senior notes, leading them out of debt.
|
||||
|
||||
T+7 is May 5th, no price movement on this announcement. They also announce acquisition of a 700,000 sq. ft fulfillment center, resulting in *no price movement*.
|
||||
|
||||
May 11; Gamestop tweets man on the moon, T+14 is May 14th,
|
||||
|
||||
May 12, Gamestop Esports twitter profile is launched.
|
||||
|
||||
None of these announcements result in significant price movement.
|
||||
|
||||
May 25, Ryan Cohen tweets "Don't try this at home" at 12:32 AM, midnight before market open on the T+21 cycle the next day.
|
||||
|
||||
<https://twitter.com/ryancohen/status/1397047791889879041>
|
||||
|
||||
*Price spike.*
|
||||
|
||||
Later that day, the Gamestop NFT is found. It has a launch date of July 14, 1 day before June 24 T+14 cycle.
|
||||
|
||||
May 29, Cohen tweets "R.I.P. dumb ass", noting that the T+21 cycle has been figured out and the Hedgies. Are. Fuk.
|
||||
|
||||
Speculation:
|
||||
|
||||
Cohen is *fully aware* of the T+21 net capital loop that the hedge funds are trapped in. Given that both good news and hype tweets are clearly insufficient to result in a positive price movement (See: May 3rd, May 11, May 12, April 13), I am highly doubtful that an ice cream cone tweet is enough to drive up the price by over 100%.
|
||||
|
||||
I believe that Cohen has had this figured out since very early on, and that's clear in his tweet behavior on later T+21 dates.
|
||||
|
||||
This can also explain why Gamestop made the choice to conduct a share offering on 6/9 -
|
||||
|
||||
6/9, the Gamestop shareholder meeting, as meme of a date as it may be, is *not* on a significant net capital requirement date, and thus Cohen and friends were well aware that the price would fall again. To counteract negative sentiment, he announces the share offering; effectively, FUD immunity, because any negative movement can be attributed to it. Additionally, it provides *1 billion dollars* in capital for future positive announcements, which he can place on the T+21 dates; for example, the June 24 T+21, which is in close proximity to the Russel rebalancing. Note: So far, only Cohen tweets have lined up with T+21 dates. If positive Gamestop news; an acquisition, a dividend, NFT's, esports deals lines up... oh god. No dates, but those with shares have nothing to worry about - they're in good hands. *Only up.*
|
||||
|
||||
Tl;dr: Cohen is well aware of the T+21 dates and has lined up his own tweets *in clear indication* of it. The 6/9 ATM market offering, although I know many apes including myself were disappointed by, is basically FUD immunity as the price falls in between T+21 cycles. Furthermore, it raises capital for positive corporate announcements which can be lined up with T+21 dates, which so far, only Cohen tweets have lined up with. Price movements are largely irrelevant to news.
|
||||
|
||||
*We're in good hands. If you hodl shares, there's nothing to worry about. HODL!*
|
||||
|
||||
Edit: formatting. If anyone has criticisms, announcements, or additional news that I missed, please comment below.
|
||||
|
||||
*Not financial advice.*
|
||||
|
||||
EDIT: Guys I fucking missed one.
|
||||
|
||||
On March 25, Cohen tweets our smoky teddy,
|
||||
|
||||
<https://twitter.com/ryancohen/status/1375159657166209031>
|
||||
|
||||
Lining up with the T+21 date on March 25th.
|
||||
|
||||
With this, out of 18 Cohen tweets since his activity in Gamestop, 4 of them line up with the 5 T+21 cycle days thus far, missing only the first one on January. While it is *possible* that this is a coincidence, given that there's about 180 days since the beginning of all this I don't think it's very likely. If anyone is a statistics legend and could calculate the probability that this is random it would be much appreciated. Also, I don't think there's much of another reason why he would tweet an ice cream cone.
|
||||
|
||||
edit: Reached out to friend who is a statistics major. He just graduated and doesn't want to do math but his response was - "Pretty sure though just from inspection it'll be statistically significant". Statisticians who are *not* lazy bums please comment if you can figure this out!
|
||||
|
||||
edit 2: Update - math wrinkle brain messaged me with:
|
||||
|
||||
"I can't post bc of karma but the probability of having at least 4 right dates on 5 while picking 18 out of 180 is 0.0339% It's an hypergeometric law."
|
||||
|
||||
In basically any statistical research model this is *significant*. As always if anyone has any corrections to this please comment or message me. Tits jacked!
|
@ -0,0 +1,79 @@
|
||||
FINRA short interest reporting: The current price action is anomalous
|
||||
=====================================================================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/No1Important_4real](https://www.reddit.com/user/No1Important_4real/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nztx4l/finra_short_interest_reporting_the_current_price/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
[Education 👨🏫 | Data 🔢](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22Education%20%F0%9F%91%A8%E2%80%8D%F0%9F%8F%AB%20%7C%20Data%20%F0%9F%94%A2%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||
----TLDR; No price jump before a Short Interest Report date might mean Citadel and friends are unable to continue hiding their short interest. Reported SI numbers will climb.----
|
||||
|
||||
For the year of 2021 two major events have been clearly and predictably affecting the price of GME, what's know as the FTD cycle, and FINRA reporting. I want to discuss the FINRA reporting.
|
||||
|
||||
Many apes are unaware of the FINRA short interest reports and their affect on GME's price because they are largely eclipsed by the larger and more scandalous FTD cycle, but it's affect on the price action has been clear and predictable since the start.
|
||||
|
||||
WHAT IS SHORT INTEREST REPORTING
|
||||
|
||||
To summarize here is a quote from FINRA's own site:
|
||||
|
||||
```
|
||||
FINRA requires firms to report short interest positions in all customer and proprietary accounts in all equity securities twice a month. All short interest positions must be reported by 6 p.m. Eastern Time on the second business day after the reporting settlement date designated by FINRA.
|
||||
|
||||
```
|
||||
|
||||
Also on the FINRA site is a calendar of important short interest reporting dates (<https://www.finra.org/filing-reporting/regulatory-filing-systems/short-interest>). There are three terms that are important with this calendar. Settlement Date, Due Date, and Exchange Receipt Date.
|
||||
|
||||
Firstly, for those who aren't familiar, Short Interest is the term used to describe shares sold short but not yet covered or closed out. In terms of GME, this is all those synthetic shares and the whole reason this ape party is happening.
|
||||
|
||||
Settlement Date is the date of the snapshot of short interest. If the settlement date is Friday, then the current short interest on Friday is used to as the data source to compile the report.
|
||||
|
||||
Due Date is the date on which the reports must be submitted to FINRA.
|
||||
|
||||
Exchange Receipt Date is the date on which the reports are published.
|
||||
|
||||
From what I can discern though, there is possibly wiggle room within those dates. For example, it seems as though the reports are compiled with data from market open on the Settlement Dates, as often massive shorting begin anew on each Settlement Date. I assume the same is true on the opposite end and the published reports may not be until the end of the receipt date, which means they aren't readily available until the following business day for retail public.
|
||||
|
||||
HOW SHORT INTEREST REPORTING AFFECTS PRICE
|
||||
|
||||
Basically, the entities shorting GME don't want their short positions published. By design, shorts are supposed to be settled within a matter of days and it's only through gross manipulation and breaking of rules have they been able to draw them out (which is how the FTD cycle comes into play). What the short entities don't want is their true Short Interest to be known, and these reports are supposed to do exactly that. So, to get around the reports, they hide their positions (covered in many of the wonderful DD on the topic on the FTD cycle and Deep ITM hiding), or they close their short positions long enough to create the report.
|
||||
|
||||
In any given day, more and more short positions are created and hidden away, but between report Settlement Dates, any short positions that can't be swept under a rug need to be closed, which causes price climbs in the days leading up to the Settlement Date. Typically on Settlement Date, after the data for the report has been captured, they will then begin shorting with abandon again to suppress the price.
|
||||
|
||||
HISTORICAL PRICING
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/s4fo6knrx9571.png?width=1866&format=png&auto=webp&s=57f1a9e5effe14f1d14ef0e4e0b5c3ad77085d51)
|
||||
|
||||
FINRA Short Interest Reporting Dates
|
||||
|
||||
I have taken the time to draw each Settlement Date on the graph of the calendar year for GME price. Each blue vertical line is a Settlement Date. You can clearly see in the day or two before each date the price will climb modestly or steeply. That is the closing of unhidden short positions. The two times this didn't happen was Feb 12 and April 30. Those two dates though were preceded by a flat period, most likely the open short positions were close or hidden within that flat period. It's most noticeable on April 30th where the was a large rally in the days preceding. If you increase the granularity of the candles you'll also find that on the days leading up to April 30th all the steep deeps were immediately met with steep climbs, I believe this is them closing their short positions on the same day they open them, keeping the price effectively flat.
|
||||
|
||||
From the above chart, an minimum there is a moderately strong relationship between FINRA Short Interest Settlement Dates and the price of GME rising. You don't see a huge dip two days before a Settlement Date due to them not opening large quantities of new short positions, though actual market trading still does occur like on Feb 25th.
|
||||
|
||||
WHATS HAPPENING NOW
|
||||
|
||||
Right now we're in the midst of another anomaly when it comes with FINRA reporting. The price for the last two days has been flat and dipped hard just before then. If they need to close their short positions before the Settlement Date, it raises the question as to what's going on.
|
||||
|
||||
As I see it, there are three scenarios that can account for what's happening.
|
||||
|
||||
1. The sale of 5 million shares is entirely at fault the for 30% price decline, open short positions were closed over the days leading up to that fall, or were able to be hidden during that time.
|
||||
|
||||
2. They are going to lie on their report more than usual and have no intention on playing the "hide the short" game anymore
|
||||
|
||||
3. They aren't bothering hiding anymore
|
||||
|
||||
DISCLAIMER: The following is merely my opinion and not a factual analysis:
|
||||
|
||||
I don't believe possibility of option 1 is very likely, simply due to the scale of the 5 million shares. That dilution would affect around 7-9% of the share price, and buy pressure has been steadily increasing. There would be people fighting to buy the 5 million shares with the shorts attempting to cover shares they couldn't hide. I don't believe there would be enough power in that sale to drop the price a whole 30%.
|
||||
|
||||
Option two is possible, but would open up someone for clear fraud, probably a chain of individuals. Why go to jail for your boss, why go to jail as well as go bankrupt, especially if it doesn't change the outcome.
|
||||
|
||||
Option three is the one that makes the most sense to me. They don't plan on hiding their positions any longer, either because doing so it's prohibitive, or they believe that Gamestop will report the full count of the vote and make hiding unnecessary.
|
||||
|
||||
Should that be the case, we would find out on the 25th.
|
||||
|
||||
Please comment below if you have any better understanding and deeper insight into this.
|
||||
|
||||
EDIT: Added a disclaimer before my opinion and changed the tag from DD to education as some felt the DD tag should be used for more data driven analysis.
|
@ -0,0 +1,148 @@
|
||||
In death by 1000 cuts, SHF just received their 999 cut
|
||||
======================================================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/No1Important_4real](https://www.reddit.com/user/No1Important_4real/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/o0mn0y/in_death_by_1000_cuts_shf_just_received_their_999/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
[Education 👨🏫 | Data 🔢](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22Education%20%F0%9F%91%A8%E2%80%8D%F0%9F%8F%AB%20%7C%20Data%20%F0%9F%94%A2%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||
EDIT: Love you apes. Sorry again for the crass language and the tone. It was part frustration, part trying an alternate strategy to reach people. I will try and fix my typos and errors as I find them but this took me like three hours to write and I really need to get some work done.
|
||||
|
||||
EDIT 2: I updated the percentages on the numbers chart, as people correctly pointed out the implied increase negated the need for the 100% base. Thank you so much for everyone taking the time to understand. I do want to mention that I'm not saying the MOASS is on a date. I just wanted to get attention drawn to a point of data that, to me at least, seems urgent and critical for apes to see, especially while the price dips. I always reserve the right to be wrong. Thank you all so much for your comments, I appreciate them all and read them as I can.
|
||||
|
||||
PREFACE
|
||||
|
||||
I am screaming from the rooftops about this to any apes who will listen. The bells are tolling for hedgies and no one is noticing or caring. I've made two other posts trying to draw attention to this and both got downvoted into obscurity or spammed with cries of "Shill!"
|
||||
|
||||
I try to make every post respectful, concise, and as clear as possible but that isn't working and this needs to be heard, so I'm going to go crass. Prepare for a meandering, poorly edited, train of though addled wall of text! I'm going to worry less about citing and more about getting this out there. I'll edit in citations later if anyone fucking pays attention and this doesn't get downvoted to hell.
|
||||
|
||||
I love all you apes, but the hedgies are bleeding out right in front of us and you dense mother fuckers are busy upvoting cat videos and low effort memes to the front page instead of useful discussion. You aren't all diamond hands, you're diamond skull too. If I need to make a puppet show I will, you're going to understand how important today is.
|
||||
|
||||
TOPIC
|
||||
|
||||
Today is the settlement date for the short interest reports due to FINRA twice a month. These dates are as important as FTD cycle dates but no one ever fucking pays any attention to them. Every single time these dates come around the price will bump UP by 25% to 35%. What did we see this cycle? A DROP OF 40%!
|
||||
|
||||
This is the first time in a year that the price fell for a SI report cycle. It has always risen by as much as 500% during the Jan squeeze or as little as 22% in April while the stock was running flat but it ALWAYS GOES UP!
|
||||
|
||||
Pay the fuck attention here. The price goes up when these dates come around, not down. There is a very simple reason why, if you give two shits about it you can read my first DD:
|
||||
|
||||
<https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nztx4l/finra_short_interest_reporting_the_current_price/>
|
||||
|
||||
GRADE SCHOOL LEVEL EXPLANATION
|
||||
|
||||
I'm going to use an analogy and then a real world example with numbers to try and hold as many people's hands here and explain what's happening.
|
||||
|
||||
Let's say you get a small cut and it bleeds a little bit. You're not going to die. You get cut again and again and again and you're still not going to die but every cut makes the bleeding come faster and faster. Eventually so many cuts will accumulate that the bleeding will kill you.
|
||||
|
||||
Now imagine you're getting these cuts but don't want anyone to know you're bleeding, so you cover the cuts up with bandages. You're still fucking bleeding, you're still going to die, but at least nobody knows it. People can see you're a little cut, but no one can clearly tell you're fucking hamburger and being held together by duct tape and stubbornness.
|
||||
|
||||
Now what happens when you run out of bandages and you get a new cut. That cut is going to show, people are going to see it. Worst, your old bandages need to be changed from time to time. You're now not just fucked, but everyone is going to start realizing you're fucked and they're going to go after your weak ass.
|
||||
|
||||
That's the hedge funds right now, they're out of bandages.
|
||||
|
||||
These pieces of shit have been creating synthetic shares of GME for months now, since before the Jan squeeze. In Jan they were over 100% short, so what happens when someone buys a share of a stock that has no shares to sell? The price goes up. It goes WAY the fuck up. To counter, the hedge funds have been creating synthetic shares.
|
||||
|
||||
There are piles and piles of DD on this topic, please use the DD search button and read some of them if you're lost.
|
||||
|
||||
So, let's say it's April 16th. You have synthetically created MILLIONS of shares of GME and apes keep buying. You create more shares every time they want to buy more so that the price doesn't climb. But every time you create shares you have to balance your books. Luckily, the SEC is shit at their jobs and you can fudge 10% or so of the shares you create out of thin air, but there is still just way too many shares getting created day after day.
|
||||
|
||||
Then, here comes a settlement date on April 30th. In that time you've synthetically created 20 million shares and fucked the stock price in the process, only letting sell pressure materialize. You even got super sneaky and only marked half the shares you created out of thin air as short. You're still holding your dick and 10 million fucking shares that have to be balanced before your system creates an automated report and sends it to FINRA. Fuck. OK, so you start buying up deep in the money calls and shoving hundreds of thousands of shares into them, but there's only so many of those in a day. Here you are three days before the report is due and you've still got 7 million shares to fucking deal with. No option, you're going to cover 6 million of them, let the stock price concentrate a few percent, and then short the fuck out of it in a couple days. The report you send in, which is completely fucked and not even close to accurate, only shows you have 20% of the stock shorted, because you managed to lie about half of them, shove a quarter of them into options, juggled the rest into the share price for a couple days. April 30th hits and the report fires, you now can start the stupid fucking cycle all over again!
|
||||
|
||||
MIDDLE SCHOOL LEVEL
|
||||
|
||||
If you're with me so far, then I'm proud of you and you get a star.
|
||||
|
||||
The hedgies are trapped in this cycle, it is married to the FTD cycle that everyone focuses on, but both of these cycles feed each other and compound on each other.
|
||||
|
||||
Every time a report is due they have to cover whatever amount of shares they can't hide into options. If you want to know more about how hedge funds hide their shit in options, please use the DD button, there are a lot of VERY deep dives into that topic.
|
||||
|
||||
Every time there is a settlement date looming, the shorts cover any open excessive shares they haven't yet hidden. Every time. Without exception.
|
||||
|
||||
Now, half you retards skimming here read this as 'the shorts have covered'. THE SHORTS HAVE NOT COVERED! They are not closing the hundreds of millions of short positions they have open every settlement cycle, what they are closing is a fraction of the shares they created. Their strategy is to balance their bullshit between "accounting errors" and not marking synthetic shares as being short, shoving shares into options, and covering the remained. They cannot over do any one of the three. If they pump too many shares into options, the next FTD cycle will hit too hard. If they fuck up their report too much, it will cross the line from a fine and end up with jail time. If they cover too much it will send the share price too high. They use ALL THREE!
|
||||
|
||||
WHAT HAPPENED
|
||||
|
||||
I hope you're still with me, we're almost there....
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/g49n3z9peh571.png?width=1866&format=png&auto=webp&s=45312c14e7656455d6791d0e765be717c4eed00e)
|
||||
|
||||
Pretty pictures
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/zlu198bxvh571.png?width=308&format=png&auto=webp&s=b1b91ba7bd00b5f164716d4d5390fd666b18dd7b)
|
||||
|
||||
Scary numbers!
|
||||
|
||||
Here is a chart of settlement dates, the high that resulted from the date, and the low a day or two previous to the high. The highs are always (except for in 2 exceptions) the day BEFORE settlement. For the two exceptions, the high was two days before settlement. The lows occur before the high within a day or two. Lastly is the percent increase.
|
||||
|
||||
You can ignore everything the Jan and Feb squeezes, their behavior is not typical for reasons I really shouldn't have to explain. You can see that before settlement the price always goes up. Always.
|
||||
|
||||
This settlement cycle, for the first time ever the price went down, it went down 40 god damn percent.
|
||||
|
||||
That's not a weird fluke, that's a fucking alarm bell ringing and everyone is ignoring it to watch anchors on CNBC yell at each other.
|
||||
|
||||
EXPLANATIONS
|
||||
|
||||
There are three possible solutions to why the price went down but only one of them makes any logical sense. Now, deep breath, you have to apply deductive reasoning. I will now attempt to make my case for the three arguments and why only one of them can be true. Hold onto your butts.
|
||||
|
||||
ARGUMENT 1: *SHF managed to hide their short positions using their usual tactics, and sell pressure was so high they never needed to cover the shares they typically have to.*
|
||||
|
||||
I want to point your attention to everyone's favorite datapoint, OBV:
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/evzz891m7h571.png?width=1298&format=png&auto=webp&s=e1385a64ef72920fb447d91a2019252dd8244008)
|
||||
|
||||
OBV is not the answer to all questions, but it can show us with a good enough clarity that no one is selling. After April 12 the OBV has only increased. This flat out tells you people are buying and not selling. Notice at the end there, the last few days, that dip is fucking pathetic. Even the paper hand bitches that joined in the last two weeks haven't sold.
|
||||
|
||||
So the sell pressure didn't deflate shit, what about options, maybe they just shoved so many god damned shares into options this week...
|
||||
|
||||
<https://www.optionsonar.com/unusual-option-activity/GME/latest-trades>
|
||||
|
||||
Well, nope, according the optionsonar this week isn't exceptional. No more deep ITM buys then we'd expect to see. So they didn't hide the shares and they didn't cover the shares. This argument is fucked.
|
||||
|
||||
ARGUMENT 2: *Hedge funds lie, they're just going to lie on this report.*
|
||||
|
||||
This argument is slightly more plausible but still doesn't cover it. I want to emphasis, these dates are married to the FTD cycle. The FTD cycle is the noose around the hedgies necks. The cycle is strangling their stupid asses out. If they could just cheat away their short positions, they'd have been doing that YEARS ago.
|
||||
|
||||
What's that I hear you saying over you bowl of cheerios with no milk? "Oh, but they're desperate now and trying desperate measures" They've been desperate since Feb when the dick parked behind them started inching into their asses. They've been doing everything they possibly can since at least Feb with no way out. If it was as simple as lying don't you think they would have tried that by now?
|
||||
|
||||
I don't want to tell you jack shit about me, who I am or what I do in the real world, but I do have personal experience on this front, I do know what I'm talking about. The SEC may have their thumbs up their asses but if you fuck the dog too much, they will have no choice but to prosecute you. You can stick a finger or two in, but when you go balls deep there will be consequences.
|
||||
|
||||
<https://www.ussc.gov/sites/default/files/pdf/research-and-publications/quick-facts/Securities_Fraud_FY19.pdf>
|
||||
|
||||
Fraud, actual fucking fraud, not the stupid ass bullshit people on here like to call fraud, but REAL fucking fraud gets the government wet. USDAs will jump on them, it's a slam dunk easy case, the government gets to collect a bunch of sweet cash from their restitution payments, probation offices get to toss them onto the low risk caseload and check in with them a couple times a year. Everyone on the federal side wins. Again, I don't want to say too much but I know what I'm talking about on this topic, these assholes get prosecuted, they get years of probation and sometimes small stints in prison. Worst of all, you lose your ability to EVER practice finance again. Scarlett letter, they're fucked.
|
||||
|
||||
So, they might push the envelope, they might fudge the numbers egregiously, but they wont erase 100 million shares and expect it not to get found.
|
||||
|
||||
Reports like those sent the FINRA are created with automated workflows. In order for them to fraudulently mark all of their synthetic shares as long a worker at the bottom of the barrel would have to have gone in and done it. Some programmer, trader, or middle manger would have knowingly put his career, his freedom, his family's security on the line. For what? So his job lasts a couple weeks longer? So his boss will give him a thumbs up? Fucking no, no one is that stupid. No one is going to gamble away their entire life for a couple more weeks at a paycheck or a good performance review.
|
||||
|
||||
If it were that simple, if cheating at that level were an option, they would already be doing it.
|
||||
|
||||
I'm running in circles here but this is the first time the price dropped from a settlement, not just didn't go up, fucking dropped by 40%. It was shorted to shit. This isn't Ken going in with some whiteout and a pen, there are dozens of people involved with this action and they aren't all going to sacrifice themselves for no god damned reason, especially when they could get a sweet whistleblower reward for reporting it.
|
||||
|
||||
ARGUMENT 3: They aren't going to cover.
|
||||
|
||||
When you rule out all the other possibilities, what you're left with is the only logical argument. These assholes are unable to or unwilling to cover the shares they need to.
|
||||
|
||||
Maybe the number of them is so egregious there is no point.
|
||||
|
||||
Maybe the move to the Russell 1000 on the 25th will make the entire exercise pointless.
|
||||
|
||||
Maybe there's too much scrutiny on them with the SEC finally investigating.
|
||||
|
||||
Who the fuck knows, all I know is, they didn't cover.
|
||||
|
||||
They didn't hide them all, they didn't sell them all, they aren't going to willingly go to jail, THEY'RE SURRENDERING whether intentional or not.
|
||||
|
||||
When the report gets published on the 25th, it will show all the shares they couldn't fudge or hide. It will show tens of thousands of shares. Not just 20%, it'll be 60% minimum, and it'll be just the tip of the iceberg. That number will only represent a couple weeks of shorting.
|
||||
|
||||
Blood in the water, the sharks will circle. This is massive.
|
||||
|
||||
Apes need to fucking see this. Everyone is crying over a little price dip while the god damned final blows are being struck.
|
||||
|
||||
You may downvote this again, spam accusations of Shill, but I'm not going to stop trying to get this topic to people's attention.
|
||||
|
||||
I'm done for now and will go back to a polite demeanor.
|
||||
|
||||
To all the apes who took the time to read, thank you!
|
@ -0,0 +1,12 @@
|
||||
06/02 UPDATE: Way above the exponential floor 🚀🚀🚀
|
||||
====================================================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/JTH1](https://www.reddit.com/user/JTH1/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nquui8/0602_update_way_above_the_exponential_floor/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
[HODL 💎🙌](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22HODL%20%F0%9F%92%8E%F0%9F%99%8C%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://i.redd.it/ryp4ofioiw271.png)
|
@ -0,0 +1,12 @@
|
||||
06/04 UPDATE: Still way above the exponential floor 🚀🚀🚀
|
||||
==========================================================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/JTH1](https://www.reddit.com/user/JTH1/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nsj7my/0604_update_still_way_above_the_exponential_floor/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
[HODL 💎🙌](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22HODL%20%F0%9F%92%8E%F0%9F%99%8C%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://i.redd.it/zvielkcaac371.png)
|
@ -0,0 +1,12 @@
|
||||
06/07 UPDATE: Not really interesting this far from the exponential floor 🚀🚀🚀
|
||||
===============================================================================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/JTH1](https://www.reddit.com/user/JTH1/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/num016/0607_update_not_really_interesting_this_far_from/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
[HODL 💎🙌](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22HODL%20%F0%9F%92%8E%F0%9F%99%8C%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://i.redd.it/0dxe4bsnov371.png)
|
@ -0,0 +1,12 @@
|
||||
06/10 UPDATE: Broke the log-floor by ~1% ( ~5% in linear price scale ). I'd say that's within the reasonable margin of error for an equation I eyeballed ~4 weeks ago, and that WE'RE STILL ON THE EXPONENTIAL JOURNEY TO THE MOON 🚀🚀🚀
|
||||
=========================================================================================================================================================================================================================================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/JTH1](https://www.reddit.com/user/JTH1/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nwwy5x/0610_update_broke_the_logfloor_by_1_5_in_linear/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
[HODL 💎🙌](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22HODL%20%F0%9F%92%8E%F0%9F%99%8C%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://i.redd.it/i0rqu8v9uh471.png)
|
@ -0,0 +1,13 @@
|
||||
06/11 UPDATE: Needed to zoom in to see the details in the log chart, so I'm still confident in the exponential floor 🚀🚀🚀
|
||||
===========================================================================================================================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/JTH1](https://www.reddit.com/user/JTH1/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nxosug/0611_update_needed_to_zoom_in_to_see_the_details/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
[HODL 💎🙌](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22HODL%20%F0%9F%92%8E%F0%9F%99%8C%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://i.redd.it/lx80h8ntoo471.png)
|
||||
|
@ -0,0 +1,12 @@
|
||||
06/14 UPDATE: Did share dilution shift the floor downwards? Is the exponential trend broken? Are the last few days just statistical outliers? Stay tuned through this weeks trading as we keep the current floor equation as-is while collecting more data. The truth is out there! 🚀🚀🚀
|
||||
==========================================================================================================================================================================================================================================================================================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/JTH1](https://www.reddit.com/user/JTH1/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nzvj68/0614_update_did_share_dilution_shift_the_floor/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
[HODL 💎🙌](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22HODL%20%F0%9F%92%8E%F0%9F%99%8C%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://i.redd.it/kvvoknwvda571.png)
|
@ -0,0 +1,12 @@
|
||||
06/15 UPDATE: Floor Guy's Log, Stonkdate 258. New floor pattern still inconclusive. Further analysis of new trading data needed to figure out what's going on. (Also, I may post a bit later than usual tomorrow due to work obligations) 🚀🚀🚀
|
||||
================================================================================================================================================================================================================================================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/JTH1](https://www.reddit.com/user/JTH1/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/o0n6g1/0615_update_floor_guys_log_stonkdate_258_new/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
[HODL 💎🙌](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22HODL%20%F0%9F%92%8E%F0%9F%99%8C%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://i.redd.it/y3ratseoch571.png)
|
@ -0,0 +1,12 @@
|
||||
06/16 UPDATE: Floor Guy's Log, Stonkdate 259. Pretty much moving sideways the past 3 days. Locally it seams that b approaches zero. Is it a sign that the SHF's have given up like 1000 Cuts Guy proposed? We will learn more in the days to come 🚀🚀🚀
|
||||
========================================================================================================================================================================================================================================================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/JTH1](https://www.reddit.com/user/JTH1/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/o1fbhw/0616_update_floor_guys_log_stonkdate_259_pretty/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
[HODL 💎🙌](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22HODL%20%F0%9F%92%8E%F0%9F%99%8C%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://i.redd.it/2jqk2jmqyo571.png)
|
@ -0,0 +1,12 @@
|
||||
06/17 UPDATE: Some have been asking why I keep posting these charts. My rationale is that the daily low have been following a long predictable pattern in a similar manner as T+X and Elliot waves. This tells me that the daily low can somehow be used as a metric to gauge future price movements. 🚀🚀🚀
|
||||
============================================================================================================================================================================================================================================================================================================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/JTH1](https://www.reddit.com/user/JTH1/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/o26ams/0617_update_some_have_been_asking_why_i_keep/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
[HODL 💎🙌](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22HODL%20%F0%9F%92%8E%F0%9F%99%8C%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://i.redd.it/q0asy32oqv571.png)
|
@ -0,0 +1,12 @@
|
||||
06/18 UPDATE: Floor Guy's Log, Stonkdate 261. Shout out to Sideways Trading Guy. 🚀🚀🚀
|
||||
=======================================================================================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/JTH1](https://www.reddit.com/user/JTH1/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/o2yv3g/0618_update_floor_guys_log_stonkdate_261_shout/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
[HODL 💎🙌](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22HODL%20%F0%9F%92%8E%F0%9F%99%8C%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://i.redd.it/0llen7now2671.png)
|
@ -0,0 +1,142 @@
|
||||
All New 13F filings: data visualised for all major fund position changes and the new short players in GME
|
||||
=========================================================================================================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/broccaaa](https://www.reddit.com/user/broccaaa/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nev6po/all_new_13f_filings_data_visualised_for_all_major/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
[DD 👨🔬](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22DD%20%F0%9F%91%A8%E2%80%8D%F0%9F%94%AC%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||
Edit: I posted this to make the data available to everyone and start discussions around the 13Fs. The reported numbers are a bit meh but I don't see this as being FUD. Despite some funds selling, price has been supported. SI% is still likely 200%+ but can't be seen in 13Fs. Shorts remain fukd.
|
||||
|
||||
Edit2: Updated the figures to not use scientific notation for the numbers, now in millions of shares.
|
||||
|
||||
Edit3: We now have data for Jane Street with massive increased put positions!! I also updated and improved clarity for all the figures.
|
||||
|
||||
This post takes the most recent 13F filings that were finally submitted today and compares them with the previous reported positions. I mostly focus on looking at changes for funds with large short positions (predominantly puts) but also include data in the plots for the long whales.
|
||||
|
||||
The new positions should be accurate up until March 31 2021 provided that the funds didn't fudge their filings expecting just a small 'cost of doing business' fine..[.](https://preview.redd.it/jbqrepkbwvz61.png?width=3364&format=png&auto=webp&s=16f28d7a1b11f318a520fb6221434451236ee9fa)
|
||||
|
||||
I might have made some errors so let me know in the comments if I missed something.
|
||||
|
||||
*Note: some funds have not yet filed their updated 13Fs*. I'll edit the post and figures once these filings become available.
|
||||
|
||||
Intro and what we're looking for 'aka' show me the PUTs
|
||||
|
||||
Many DD posts have looked into different tricks to create naked shares using options. I previously wrote [a post describing the married put naked short selling trick](https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/comments/mgj0j1/the_naked_shorting_scam_revealed_lending_of/) and [gathered as much data as I could to detect options fuckery in GME in 2021](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/mvdgf5/the_naked_shorting_scam_in_numbers_ai_detection/).
|
||||
|
||||
The biggest evidence for naked short selling fuckery to my mind is the massive increase in open put interest at the end of Jan that coincides with decreases in reported short interest (SI%), FTDs and GME share price.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/jy1dfqamkpz61.png?width=4500&format=png&auto=webp&s=7dc9264c12190d89d469e4a237ff37376405e3d7)
|
||||
|
||||
SI% and FTDs decreased at the end of Jan 2021 as a massive increase on open interest occurred for GME puts. This is suggestive of naked short selling options fuckery.
|
||||
|
||||
At the end of march open interest for GME puts was 1.29 Million contracts. This equals the equivalent of 129 Million shares. I checked this in 2 separate sources just to be sure. We should see close to 129 million shares in puts listed in the new 13Fs.
|
||||
|
||||
*So who dun goofed and bought all those puts??*
|
||||
|
||||
Major holdings for large short/long funds - Mar 31 2021
|
||||
|
||||
Here I've selected any firm that has at least 500K shares or 300K worth of shares in put/call options in the new filings. Any fund that has a large short position in PUTs is labelled as potentially short although more digging would be required to confirm for some of the funds.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/e5dkghleqvz61.png?width=5322&format=png&auto=webp&s=d420bb529bdbf39fcd7091c1270acf00a827d471)
|
||||
|
||||
Positions for Funds with large holdings in puts, calls or shares.
|
||||
|
||||
A number of the large long position holders have sold their stake in GME over recent months. Blackrock and Vanguard still hold significant positions. On the short side we have a number of the usual suspects plus some new funds with large put positions.
|
||||
|
||||
Total shares, put and call positions in recent 13F filings
|
||||
|
||||
This is a simple sum of all the shares reported by funds in the last two 13F filings separated out into shares, put or call positions.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/vxo08agjqvz61.png?width=2164&format=png&auto=webp&s=4daee5a1ba94eb1e1221e5eeb77358e437da5aac)
|
||||
|
||||
Total summed positions across all funds in recent 13F filings.
|
||||
|
||||
We only see 25 million shares in puts reported fo far in the 13F filings. *Where are the other 100 Million that we know were held due to the open interest on March 31 2021??!?*
|
||||
|
||||
Large changes in positions from Dec 31 2020 to March 31 2021
|
||||
|
||||
This first plot show the positions for any fund with at least 500k shares or more than 300k shares in puts or calls at either time point.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/jbqrepkbwvz61.png?width=3364&format=png&auto=webp&s=16f28d7a1b11f318a520fb6221434451236ee9fa)
|
||||
|
||||
13F large fund positions for GME for the last 2 quarters.
|
||||
|
||||
We can see that some of the funds with medium to large holdings in GME shares have sold their positions in the last months. The big positions of Blackrock, Vanguard and RC Ventures remain the same. Changes and put/call positions can be seen easily from the lower 2 plots.
|
||||
|
||||
Note that Fidelity (*Fmr llc*) probably didn't sell their position. [u/Rehypothecator](https://www.reddit.com/u/Rehypothecator/) pointed out that Fidelity likely still has a vast number of shares but moved them to their mutual funds meaning they are no longer reported in the 13Fs.
|
||||
|
||||
The next figure shows all fund positions with a change of at least +/- 300k shares in either shares, puts or calls between time points.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/1s0ps7utqvz61.png?width=4680&format=png&auto=webp&s=8d39021e5a0ecf950a6efac6078d40eeaeab664e)
|
||||
|
||||
Position changes for all funds with a change of at least 300k shares in either of the position types.
|
||||
|
||||
Observations from different funds
|
||||
|
||||
Short funds
|
||||
|
||||
*Citadel advisors llc* Increased their put position by more than 1 million shares this quarter. Less than we might have thought but as you'll see down below they seem to be coordinating with other funds (e.g. *Imc-chicago*). Citadel report selling off all their shares and increasing their put and call holdings.
|
||||
|
||||
*Susquehanna international group llp* similar situation to Citadel with more than 1 million new shares in puts, some additional call options and all of the shares they previously owned now sold.
|
||||
|
||||
*Melvin capital management lp* were the biggest GME losers in Jan. They reported 6 million shares in puts at the end of Dec 2020 suggesting a massive naked short position. Since then very little has been revealed about Melvin.
|
||||
|
||||
Edit: Melvin requested special permission to not disclose some of their positions (from a useful comment below):
|
||||
|
||||
> THIS FILING LISTS SECURITIES HOLDINGS REPORTED ON THE FORM 13F FILED ON FEBRUARY 16, 2021, PURSUANT TO A REQUEST FOR CONFIDENTIAL TREATMENT AND FOR WHICH CERTAIN HOLDINGS WERE VOLUNTARILY WITHDRAWN FROM THE CONFIDENTIAL TREATMENT REQUEST.
|
||||
>
|
||||
> <https://sec.report/Document/0000905718-21-000618/>
|
||||
>
|
||||
> Published: 2021-04-28 17:15:15
|
||||
|
||||
*Maplelane capital llc* was the second biggest loser to GME in January. They had a massive short position of 2 million shares held in puts at the end of 2020. In their new 13F they report that they sold all of their puts and now have zero exposure to GME.
|
||||
|
||||
*Imc-chicago llc* has a newly created options position with a massive 2 million shares in puts, 1 million shares in calls and zero actual GME shares. [*The designated market maker business of Imc-chicago llc is owned by Citadel after it was purchased at the end of 2020*](https://www.citadelsecurities.com/news/citadel-securities-expands-leading-dmm-business/). The change in position for this fund suggests that Citadel is using it as part of the naked shorting scam to hide FTDs and suppress price.
|
||||
|
||||
*Wolverine trading llc* has a similar short position as before at the end of 2020 with almost 2 million shares in puts. Given the number of expiry dates with huge numbers of put open interest expiry it is very likely that *Wolverine trading llc* opened up new contracts to maintain their short position. The below quote if from Lucy Komisar:
|
||||
|
||||
> In 2004, when new Reg SHO rules were being considered, *Wolverine trading llc* argued that market makers should not be required to cover shorts. It was adopted and known, after its author and prime proponent, as "The Madoff Exception."
|
||||
>
|
||||
> Later legal cases revealed that *Goldman Sachs* wrote to *Wolverine trading llc* saying, "[W]e will let you fail." We will let you fail violates SEC rules; it's illegal market manipulation. The email was obtained in discovery in 2011 in the Overstock legal case against conspiring broker-dealers. With the fraud impossible to refute, Goldman settled with Overstock for $20 million.
|
||||
|
||||
*Goldman sachs group inc* have been involved in multiple naked short selling law suits. Their new 13F filing shows that they sold most of their GME puts and shares but acquired about 30k more shares covered by call contracts.
|
||||
|
||||
*Jane street group llc* reports a massive 2.5 million shares in puts increase and 2 million shares in calls increase. Jane street reports that they hold more puts than Citadel.
|
||||
|
||||
*Ubs group ag* have cut back from a position of 4 million shares in puts at the end of 2020 down to about 1 million at the end of March 2021. Their position was definitely suspicious before but it seems like they are reducing their exposure to GME quite significantly.
|
||||
|
||||
*Citigroup inc* had a large position in GME calls/puts at the end of 2020 but appears to have reduced their GME exposure since.
|
||||
|
||||
*TACONIC CAPITAL ADVISORS LP* now owns half a million shares in puts without holding any actual shares. [Senior management at the company have a number of strong ties with Citadel employees](https://relationshipscience.com/person/clay-calhoon-3905596).
|
||||
|
||||
*PRELUDE CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LLC* sold all of their 10k GME shares but is now short and owns 1.3 million shares in puts.
|
||||
|
||||
*NOMURA HOLDINGS INC*, *BLUEFIN CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LLC* and *CAPTION MANAGEMENT, LLC* have each newly acquired approx. 200k shares in puts and 200k shares in calls. None of these funds have any meaningful amount of real shares. Possible married-put/reverse conversions here.
|
||||
|
||||
*GROUP ONE TRADING, L.P.* reduced their put position by approx. 1 million shares but remain short with 2.5 million shares in puts.
|
||||
|
||||
*SESSA CAPITAL IM, L.P.* has opened a new 1.8 million share put position. The have no shares or call options.
|
||||
|
||||
Long whales
|
||||
|
||||
Here I'll just list the funds with with 200k shares or more. DFV whale kinda size or bigger.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/cvg4d183zuz61.png?width=784&format=png&auto=webp&s=b8dadb242fc92b31c897e59666c7829827c267fb)
|
||||
|
||||
Shares held and change in position for all funds with at least 300k in GME shares on March 31st 2021.
|
||||
|
||||
Conclusions
|
||||
|
||||
Looking through the 13Fs has been kinda odd. There were 130 Million shares in puts open on March 31st but only 30 Million reported in the 13Fs. Who else could have that many contracts if not the large funds reporting to the SEC?
|
||||
|
||||
Aside from that we did see a number of smaller long funds sell their GME stake in early 2021 but some others jumped in. Blockrock maintained their position. Vanguard added another 400k shares. [u/Rehypothecator](https://www.reddit.com/u/Rehypothecator/) pointed out that Fidelity likely still has a vast number of shares but moved them to their [mutual funds meaning they are no longer reported in the 13Fs](https://i.imgur.com/3MaFVXC.jpg).
|
||||
|
||||
The number of short funds appears to have increased with some more players entering with big put positions. Melvin requested special confidential treatment for some of their positions to the SEC which could explain why we don't see anything for them. Jane Street bought more than 2.5 million more shares in puts. Prelude and Sessa have bought in with more than 1 million shares in puts a piece. Citadel and Susquehanna have very similar positions to before. However, the Citadel owned *Imc-chicago llc* has a newly created options position with a massive 2 million shares in puts and nothing else.
|
||||
|
||||
Definitely some interesting details in these new 13Fs but no obvious smoking gun yet. *What happened to those extra 100 Million shares held in puts??*
|
||||
|
||||
Shorts didn't cover in Jan. Apes own the float.
|
220
DD/2021-06-11-GME-Russell-1000-Rebalance-Day.md
Normal file
220
DD/2021-06-11-GME-Russell-1000-Rebalance-Day.md
Normal file
@ -0,0 +1,220 @@
|
||||
GME Russell 1000 Rebalance Day and T+21 and T+35: One Of The Highest Volume Days Of The Year. Every time any of the indices add or delete a stock, the funds must also buy or sell the stock.
|
||||
=============================================================================================================================================================================================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/vierzehnter](https://www.reddit.com/user/vierzehnter/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nxjvpg/gme_russell_1000_rebalance_day_and_t21_and_t35/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
[Education 👨🏫 | Data 🔢](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22Education%20%F0%9F%91%A8%E2%80%8D%F0%9F%8F%AB%20%7C%20Data%20%F0%9F%94%A2%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||
*Edit 1: Coincidence or not, CNBC wants us to sell our shares in 2 weeks, a few days before rebalancing day:* [*If you're thinking of riding the next meme stock mania, be sure to sell in about 2 weeks*](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/09/if-youre-thinking-of-riding-the-next-meme-stock-mania-be-sure-to-sell-in-about-2-weeks.html)
|
||||
|
||||
~~*Edit 2: As far as I remember, a T+21 cycle finishes on June 24th right? Can somebody help me there?*~~
|
||||
|
||||
*Edit 3: Added information*
|
||||
|
||||
*Edit 4:* *T+21 falls on June 24. T+35 falls on June 28. Thanks to* [r/Throcked](https://www.reddit.com/r/Throcked/)
|
||||
|
||||
EDIT 5: I just learned that you can not change the title. ~~and T+21 and T+35~~
|
||||
|
||||
*Edit 6: This is my first time I put so much time in a post for this community. One thing I learned from this one is that I should only write about things that I can source, not things that I merely remember.* *I am very sorry for the confusion!*
|
||||
|
||||
*Edit 7: Added Information on stocks being added to the Russell 1000*
|
||||
|
||||
*Edit 8:* [*720B reverse repo might be due at the same time*](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nxtguc/bottom_of_page_4_seems_to_say_theres_720b_worth/)*, it's all adding up to the same date. See Edit 1. What is going to happen?*
|
||||
|
||||
*.*
|
||||
|
||||
.
|
||||
|
||||
.
|
||||
|
||||
*We have seen a lot of posts about the highly possible migration of GameStop into the Russell 1000 Index.*
|
||||
|
||||
*I did my small DD and I wanted to share a bit of information with you. Please don't expect too much from this post, it's my first DD if you can call it that; maybe rather a compilation of free information I found on the internet. Please tell me if I make mistakes or if I should add something!*
|
||||
|
||||
Introduction: What is the Russell 1000?
|
||||
|
||||
The term Russell 1000 Index refers to a stock market index that is used as a benchmark by investors. It is a subset of the larger Russell 3000 Index and represents the 1000 top companies by market capitalization in the United States. The Russell 1000 is owned and operated by FTSE Russell Group, which is based in the United Kingdom. The Russell 1000 is considered a bellwether index for large-cap investing. [[1]](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/r/russell_1000index.asp)
|
||||
|
||||
FTSE Russell provides float-adjusted, market capitalization--weighted indexes for a precise picture of the market. Today, $9.1 trillion in assets are benchmarked to the Russell US indexes. [[2]](https://research.ftserussell.com/products/downloads/Russell-US-indexes.pdf)
|
||||
|
||||
What does this have to do with GameStop?
|
||||
|
||||
*You may have heard: your favorite company GameStop will probably be moved into the Russell 1000. As of now, GameStop is in the Russell 2000 Index* [[3]](https://content.ftserussell.com/sites/default/files/ru2000_membershiplist_20200629.pdf)*.*
|
||||
|
||||
An existing Russell 2000 index member would have had to have a total market cap exceeding $7.3 billion in order to move into the Russell 1000 index, she said.
|
||||
|
||||
Going by that, [...] GameStop and its $11.97 billion market cap would make it. [[4]](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/tell-whether-amc-gamestop-russell-120012129.html)
|
||||
|
||||
*As this PDF* [[5]](https://content.ftserussell.com/sites/default/files/russell_microcap_deletions_-_2021.pdf) *shows, GameStop will be preliminary deleted from the Russell Microcap Index* [[6]](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/r/russell-microcap-index.asp).
|
||||
|
||||
2021 Index Reconstitution
|
||||
|
||||
Each year in May and June, the Russell Indexes release an updated list [[7]](https://www.ftserussell.com/resources/russell-reconstitution) of the constituents for their various indexes, notably the Russell 2000 and Russell 1000. Many exchange-traded funds and mutual funds are constructed to track these indexes, so official index rebalances force these funds to transact large volumes of stocks that move in or out of the index. This drives major changes in demand for stocks, generating significant volatility. [[8]](https://www.investopedia.com/articles/stock-analysis/062516/russell-rebalance-study-what-you-need-know.asp) [...]
|
||||
|
||||
*Check* [this](https://www.ftserussell.com/research-insights/russell-reconstitution/reconstitution-frequently-asked-questions) *page for frequently asked questions about the reconstruction.*
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/dwvv41zzhn471.jpg?width=943&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=59d53dc221aa6deb5808f69f671b531c99d84707)
|
||||
|
||||
2021 Reconstitution calendar for the Russell US Indexes [7]
|
||||
|
||||
*Today, June 11th, the mentioned preliminary lists was updated.*
|
||||
|
||||
What happens with stocks when they get added to indices?
|
||||
|
||||
*Zoom Video Communications, Inc. (ZM):* How Zoom zoomed into the Russell 1000 [[9]](https://www.ftserussell.com/blogs/how-zoom-zoomed-russell-1000)[...] After its IPO in April 2019, Zoom was evaluated for inclusion in Russell US Indexes during our June 2019 annual Russell reconstitution. The company met some Russell 1000 eligibility requirements---including a market cap in excess of $20 billion--- but fell short of the minimum voting rights hurdle. [...]
|
||||
|
||||
When Zoom eligibility was revisited in June 2020, it was a changed world in many respects---and very much a changed Zoom. The company's market cap had more than doubled to $46.8 billion, placing it well into Russell 1000 Index eligibility. [...]
|
||||
|
||||
Zoom's June 2020 addition to the Russell 1000 meant that it leapfrogged the Russell 2000, bypassing the initial step of many companies that later grow to become eligible for the Russell 1000. [...] And since its inclusion in the Russell 1000, Zoom's growth trajectory has continued. As shown below, as of September 30, 2020, the company's market cap has reached $132.5 billion and is now larger than the broader Russell 1000 dollar-weighted median market cap.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/ir0jmjofzs471.png?width=619&format=png&auto=webp&s=bfaa044b083da8503cd0594292397c465617ede2)
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/xtt848ej0t471.jpg?width=1920&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=0e44c91c7546310c2b86f6e4c418f596607b1dff)
|
||||
|
||||
ZM prices before and after Reconstruction Day 07/29/20
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/706rlrcykp471.jpg?width=855&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=05b120a9d84af12b1cadc38c68802ad47b23c104)
|
||||
|
||||
u/onlyhereforthelmaos research on companies that moved from R2k to R1k [10,11]
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/i5kkcl2v8o471.jpg?width=1920&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=b2de67bab2cba3ecd798bce50c27e2832b42a1ec)
|
||||
|
||||
TSLA price when it was added to S&P 500 12/21/20
|
||||
|
||||
.
|
||||
|
||||
*(May 2020)* Tech stocks are expected to claim a greater presence in large-cap growth and value indexes, while industrials will shift to value from growth across market caps. [...]
|
||||
|
||||
For investors, the run-up to the rebalancing presents an opportunity to get ahead of some of the fund flows into and out of stocks that are joining or leaving the indexes.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/lvyz7qob2t471.jpg?width=633&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=a873a825572c753196ba14447a18b9c5fe03deee)
|
||||
|
||||
Buying and selling pressure of companies added/ leaving the Index
|
||||
|
||||
Private-equity firm KKR (ticker: KKR), for example, has cited Russell index inclusion in 2020 as a strategic priority. If added to the Russell 1000, KKR shares could see $644 million worth of buying pressure from exchange-traded funds and passive investors, equal to almost seven trading days of average volume for the stock, estimates Jefferies equity strategist Steven DeSanctis.
|
||||
|
||||
That is a lot of extra demand, but nowhere near what some thinly traded small-caps entering the Russell 2000 could see. DeSanctis points to ATCX, SWKH, and AUBN as among the shares that could have hundreds of times greater buying pressure than their average daily volumes.
|
||||
|
||||
Traders and hedge funds approach the rebalancing several months before with multiple strategies. The simplest is to buy the stocks that could get a boost from buying by ETFs and other passive investors, thanks to being reclassified into a more-popular index or having their relative weight increase. Ditto for shorting shares moving in the opposite direction. [[12]](https://www.barrons.com/articles/how-investors-can-play-the-rebalancing-of-the-russell-indexes-51590158778)
|
||||
|
||||
.
|
||||
|
||||
*Nobody fully knows what will happen with GME. But as* [u/dlauer](https://www.reddit.com/u/dlauer/) *states* [here](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nvnslz/have_we_downplayed_the_importance_of_gme_entering/h15susc/?context=3)*, "the announcement is usually bullish because it adds buying pressure."*
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/l7hu03ruin471.jpg?width=712&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=3f3957884f89ee1679388ad9bfbb05d82792e08a)
|
||||
|
||||
u/dlauer on Russell Rebalance Day
|
||||
|
||||
The annual reconstitution is one of the most significant drivers of short-term shifts in supply and demand for US equities, often leading to sizable price movements and volatility in individual company names or industry sectors. The final day of the reconstitution is typically one of the highest trading-volume days of the year in US equity markets.
|
||||
|
||||
[...] Similarly, it can create opportunities for investors seeking to benefit from the price moves which may be created from the reconstitution.
|
||||
|
||||
Countless ETFs, mutual funds, and managed asset programs mirror the composition of the Russell US Indexes in their investment funds, structured products, and index-based derivatives. With close to 70% of actively-managed institutional US equity assets currently benchmarked to a Russell Index, changes to index composition are apt to reverberate widely across the market. [[13]](https://www.cmegroup.com/education/articles-and-reports/the-russell-2000-index-reconstitution-2020.html)
|
||||
|
||||
Index funds make up a substantial percentage of the daily trading in the stock market. The S&P 500 ETF [...] trade billions of dollars each day, and every time any of the indices add or delete a stock, the funds must also buy or sell the stock. This can create some large moves for the stocks involved and can be an interesting source of volatility for traders.
|
||||
|
||||
At the close on June 25, 2021, the Russell indices will be rebalanced. [...] Thousands of stocks are impacted by what Russell calls its 'reconstitution.' Typically the day on which the reconstitution is down is one of the highest volume days of the year as a slew of huge blocks are transferred to various index funds. [[14]](https://realmoney.thestreet.com/investing/trading-the-russell-indices-rebalancing-15677149)
|
||||
|
||||
.
|
||||
|
||||
[Here](https://www.etfchannel.com/type/most-shorted-etfs/) *you can see the most heavily shorted ETFs. 0.44% of IWM is GME; it's #6 with 43.48% Short Interest.* [*[15]*](https://www.etfchannel.com/type/most-shorted-etfs/)
|
||||
|
||||
*As far as I understand, FTSE Russell shared on May 7th already that GME would move into the Russell 1000, but eversince then, we have seen posts of shorties heavily shorting some ETFs, yesterday and today.*
|
||||
|
||||
.
|
||||
|
||||
*Shoutout to* [u/gooseears](https://www.reddit.com/u/gooseears/):
|
||||
|
||||
I think people are confusing what can force someone to cover their shorts. No one can directly make anyone cover their shorts directly. As long as they have their margin requirements covered, they can keep those positions open. In fact, the lenders want those positions open as long as possible to make dat interest off it.
|
||||
|
||||
BUT, when the ETFs rebalance and there is a load of volatility, this COULD cause GME to skyrocket in price due to the potential buying pressure, which COULD lead to margin calls which COULD lead to force liquidations to cover open short positions.
|
||||
|
||||
Notice the word "could" each time. This is a series of possible events that could lead to the squeeze. But don't think this is a certain date. As always, no dates. Anything could happen on that day. [[16]](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nx3abo/udlauer_knows_twothree_things_more_listen_to_what/h1cldzw/?context=3)
|
||||
|
||||
*TL;DR:*
|
||||
|
||||
*GME is very likely to move from the Russell 2000 to the Russell 1000 Index. Rebalancing is happening right now,* *the newly reconstituted indexes take effect after the market close on June 25, data will be published on Monday, June 28 when the Russell Reconstitution takes effect and the newly reconstituted indexes begin to operate.*
|
||||
|
||||
*One can not say what will happen with the GME price. Typically, index rebalancing day one of the highest volume days of the year.* W*hat we do know is that someone big is going to have to buy shares, and they will likely have some impact on the trading.*
|
||||
|
||||
~~*Fun fact: As you have read in the title, T+21 and T+35 both land on the same day, two days before the Russell indices rebalance.*~~
|
||||
|
||||
.
|
||||
|
||||
.
|
||||
|
||||
.
|
||||
|
||||
[[1] https://www.investopedia.com/terms/r/russell_1000index.asp](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/r/russell_1000index.asp)
|
||||
|
||||
[[2] https://research.ftserussell.com/products/downloads/Russell-US-indexes.pdf](https://research.ftserussell.com/products/downloads/Russell-US-indexes.pdf)
|
||||
|
||||
[[3] https://content.ftserussell.com/sites/default/files/ru2000_membershiplist_20200629.pdf](https://content.ftserussell.com/sites/default/files/ru2000_membershiplist_20200629.pdf)
|
||||
|
||||
[[4] https://finance.yahoo.com/news/tell-whether-amc-gamestop-russell-120012129.html](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/tell-whether-amc-gamestop-russell-120012129.html)
|
||||
|
||||
[[5] https://content.ftserussell.com/sites/default/files/russell_microcap_deletions_-_2021.pdf](https://content.ftserussell.com/sites/default/files/russell_microcap_deletions_-_2021.pdf)
|
||||
|
||||
[[6] https://www.investopedia.com/terms/r/russell-microcap-index.asp](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/r/russell-microcap-index.asp)
|
||||
|
||||
[[7] https://www.ftserussell.com/resources/russell-reconstitution](https://www.ftserussell.com/resources/russell-reconstitution)
|
||||
|
||||
[[8] https://www.investopedia.com/articles/stock-analysis/062516/russell-rebalance-study-what-you-need-know.asp](https://www.investopedia.com/articles/stock-analysis/062516/russell-rebalance-study-what-you-need-know.asp)
|
||||
|
||||
[[9] https://www.ftserussell.com/blogs/how-zoom-zoomed-russell-1000](https://www.ftserussell.com/blogs/how-zoom-zoomed-russell-1000)
|
||||
|
||||
[[10] 'Gen Z' comes to Russell 1000 Index as Russell Rebalance nears (2019)](https://www.ftserussell.com/blogs/gen-z-comes-russell-1000-index-russell-rebalance-nears)
|
||||
|
||||
[[11] Stocks in the Russell 1000 Index](https://stockmarketmba.com/stocksintherussell1000.php)
|
||||
|
||||
[[12] ](https://www.barrons.com/articles/how-investors-can-play-the-rebalancing-of-the-russell-indexes-51590158778)<https://www.barrons.com/articles/how-investors-can-play-the-rebalancing-of-the-russell-indexes-51590158778>
|
||||
|
||||
[[13] https://www.cmegroup.com/education/articles-and-reports/the-russell-2000-index-reconstitution-2020.html](https://www.cmegroup.com/education/articles-and-reports/the-russell-2000-index-reconstitution-2020.html)
|
||||
|
||||
[[14] https://realmoney.thestreet.com/investing/trading-the-russell-indices-rebalancing-15677149](https://realmoney.thestreet.com/investing/trading-the-russell-indices-rebalancing-15677149)
|
||||
|
||||
[[15] https://www.etfchannel.com/type/most-shorted-etfs/](https://www.etfchannel.com/type/most-shorted-etfs/)
|
||||
|
||||
[[16] https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nx3abo/udlauer_knows_twothree_things_more_listen_to_what/h1cldzw/?context=3](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nx3abo/udlauer_knows_twothree_things_more_listen_to_what/h1cldzw/?context=3)
|
||||
|
||||
.
|
||||
|
||||
.
|
||||
|
||||
.
|
||||
|
||||
*HERE ARE SOME GREAT FOLLOW UP LINKS:*
|
||||
|
||||
[No matter what the price is, Gamestop should be upgraded to the Russell 1000 index on June 28th](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nwvyfg/no_matter_what_the_price_is_gamestop_should_be/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf)
|
||||
|
||||
[FTSE Russell begins 33rd annual Russell US Indexes Reconstitution](https://www.ftserussell.com/press/ftse-russell-begins-33rd-annual-russell-us-indexes-reconstitution)
|
||||
|
||||
[Russell 1000: Many poorly researched or purely speculative DD today about this. Here is the actual DATA and explanation of what impact the reconstitution is likely to have.](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nu91kx/russell_1000_many_poorly_researched_or_purely/)
|
||||
|
||||
[S&P 500 index inclusion (follow-up to my Russell 1000 DD yesterday): A potential CATALYST that is surprisingly *very* close...and which SHFs are powerless to prevent!](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nv3n42/sp_500_index_inclusion_followup_to_my_russell/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf)
|
||||
|
||||
[Ape Andy shares about GME into Russel 1000 from Russell 2000](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SCxZpkfW-P8)
|
||||
|
||||
- *He explains that end of June when there is a rebalancing that all shorted Russel 200 ETFs containing GME need to be closed, meaning there will be buying pressure. Andy also mentions that the Russel 2000 ETFs are shorted 500%.*
|
||||
|
||||
*.*
|
||||
|
||||
.
|
||||
|
||||
.
|
||||
|
||||
*and... just putting this here:* [*https://www.gmefloor.com/*](https://www.gmefloor.com/)
|
||||
|
||||
.
|
||||
|
||||
.
|
||||
|
||||
.
|
||||
|
||||
*I am not a financial advisor. I am just compiling some information I found on the internet. But please let me give you one advice: Buckle the f*ck up.*
|
||||
|
||||
*I love you.*
|
216
DD/2021-06-12-Revisiting-Net-Capital-and-T+21-Loops.md
Normal file
216
DD/2021-06-12-Revisiting-Net-Capital-and-T+21-Loops.md
Normal file
@ -0,0 +1,216 @@
|
||||
A revisit to Net Capital. What is truly driving these T+21 loops, the March and June gamma runs, and how skyrocketing ETF FTDs might cause big price movements in the coming weeks.
|
||||
===================================================================================================================================================================================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/Criand](https://www.reddit.com/user/Criand/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/ny2ov4/a_revisit_to_net_capital_what_is_truly_driving/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
[DD 👨🔬](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22DD%20%F0%9F%91%A8%E2%80%8D%F0%9F%94%AC%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||
0\. Preface
|
||||
|
||||
Well well, I think it's time to revisit an old topic. Net Capital. I posted about this in the past and for some reason gave up on it. I can now provide counter DD to my own T+21/T+35 theory.
|
||||
|
||||
Remember - I am not a financial advisor and I do not provide financial advice! Everything in here is based on research and discussion with others on the topics. As always, do your own research and criticize. Take my opinions with a grain of salt.
|
||||
|
||||
Wanting to revisit the Net Capital topic was a few things. There were posts about ETF FTDs spiking severely as of May 12th - even more than the highest peaks of January. I had my own doubts over time of how we could possibly have multiple cycles overlapping, when it felt more like there would be only a single cycle. And of course, some people commented and/or posted counter DD! Which I think is awesome, it's always good to provide counter DD.
|
||||
|
||||
Kenny and his gang love to continue digging a hole for themselves - while the whole financial world tries desperately to contain this potential market crash from coming to fruition.
|
||||
|
||||
GME shorts and Reverse Repo Market go brrrrrrrr.
|
||||
|
||||
TLDR: Sorry I'm too lazy right now. About to post this and go to sleep. 😎
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/p9ruup81br471.png?width=1016&format=png&auto=webp&s=459845688e21d10000f45ba7e81c9de8a6839321)
|
||||
|
||||
Kenny And The Boys
|
||||
|
||||
My previous post about [Net Capital](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/n4h832/major_deep_itm_call_option_dates_a_massive_net/) was thinking that we'd see significant price movement T+14 days after April 16th options expirations. That didn't happen, so I tossed it out of the window. (Criand, you dumb bitch)
|
||||
|
||||
Which then led me down the path of the [T+21 Loop Missing Link](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nf22qz/theory_on_the_ftd_loop_missing_link_a_t35_surge/). It got pretty popular. It's the whole T+21/T+35 conjunction theory that occurred May 24th and May 25th. While it definitely appears to be right, I have been doubting it ever since May 24th. Especially after a courageous ape [u/dentisttft](https://www.reddit.com/u/dentisttft/) posted the [Counter DD to T+21](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nsady3/t21_is_not_actually_a_thing_counter_dd/) theory. T+35 (May 24th) didn't have significant enough price movement. If it truly was a new T+35 initiating a loop, then it should have exploded up in price on May\
|
||||
24th. And for that, I think it's time to put that theory to bed.
|
||||
|
||||
The counter DD that [/u/dentisttft](https://www.reddit.com/u/dentisttft/) posted is excellent and you should definitely take a look. If my post is wrong, [/u/dentisttft](https://www.reddit.com/u/dentisttft/) still proposes another possibility: that T+35 from the FTD spike could initiate buy pressure around June 17th.
|
||||
|
||||
Ever since the counter DD, I decided to revisit Net Capital since that is what [/u/keijikage](https://www.reddit.com/u/keijikage/) brought to my attention so many weeks ago. Very smart guy by the way! Always very knowledgeable and provides amazing discussion!
|
||||
|
||||
Looking back on Net Capital now, especially with the ETF FTD spike that occurred on May 12th, it might finally paint the picture as to what has been going on this whole time with the "T+21 cycle", the March Gamma Ramp, and the June Gamma Ramp.
|
||||
|
||||
1\. GME FTDs, ETF FTDs, Massive Resurgence Started May 12
|
||||
|
||||
First, I want to discuss ETF FTDs, as something absolutely wild occurred in May. Note that we do not have the full months FTD data yet. The SEC releases the data in first half and second half of the month reports. So, it cuts off quite conveniently when FTDs began to go haywire.
|
||||
|
||||
For a while now it's been theorized ([with some pretty damn good evidence](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nrpjle/almost_1b_ftd_on_may_14th_between_gme_and/)) that ETFs containing GME have been heavily shorted. Supposedly they will short the ETF, buy up all of the other stocks in the ETF that were shorted, but leave GME alone. There's a net 0 effect on the other stocks but a net short on GME. This then starts to cause ETF FTD anomalies which they also try to suppress, but they can't hide forever. Because it appears that as of May 12th, these FTDs have begun to spill out of hiding.
|
||||
|
||||
[u/basketas87](https://www.reddit.com/u/basketas87/) posted about this surge of ETF FTDs in "[New data shows a large increase of ETF FTDs](https://www.reddit.com/r/DDintoGME/comments/nx013v/new_data_shows_a_large_increase_of_etf_ftds/)":
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/h7iq2v4njq471.png?width=1122&format=png&auto=webp&s=b4fbbca80002197058a20c5d8654e08ba8b4dbae)
|
||||
|
||||
GME Price Vs. GME FTDs and ETF FTDs (which contain GME); Source: /u/basketas87
|
||||
|
||||
You can immediately see the ETF FTDs absolutely SKYROCKETED just before the cutoff of the SEC FTD bi-monthly report. We don't even know how high this has gone in the following days or if its come crashing back down. Remember - these are aggregate. We don't sum up the FTDs between dates. Whatever the number is upon a date is the current total of FTDs reported.
|
||||
|
||||
For a date-by-date tracking for these FTDs between January and the end of March, [/u/broccaaa](https://www.reddit.com/u/broccaaa/) provided an excellent chart in "[The naked shorting scam using ETFs: mass shifting of FTDs from GME to 20+ ETFs & 27+ billion dollars still owed in remaining SI](https://www.reddit.com/r/DDintoGME/comments/n1x75w/the_naked_shorting_scam_using_etfs_mass_shifting/)". This gives us an easier look at the exact dates when FTDs spiked earlier in the year.
|
||||
|
||||
> I selected GME and 19 ETFs containing GME. I chose to only look at the ETFs that contain the most GME shares and had large numbers of FTDs in 2021. - [/u/broccaaa](https://www.reddit.com/u/broccaaa/)
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/choe9jjris471.png?width=1709&format=png&auto=webp&s=3e907654b1e054734098c010839ec5ad07ab0633)
|
||||
|
||||
Aggregate FTDs for GME; GME and ETFs; Source: /u/broccaaa
|
||||
|
||||
Some notable aggregate FTD dates from this chart:
|
||||
|
||||
1. January 29th
|
||||
|
||||
2. February 2nd
|
||||
|
||||
3. February 18th
|
||||
|
||||
And of course, the latest absolutely insane May 12th. Once again, we don't even know what the FTD numbers are for the second half of May. It could very well be much higher.
|
||||
|
||||
2\. Net Capital And Market Makers; Citadel's Can-Kicked Bag
|
||||
|
||||
Net Capital is detailed out [in this post](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/n4h832/major_deep_itm_call_option_dates_a_massive_net/) but I will do a quick summary. It revolves around [Net Capital Requirements For Brokers or Dealers - 240.15c3-1](https://www.law.cornell.edu/cfr/text/17/240.15c3-1):
|
||||
|
||||
> ...is designed to ensure that a broker-dealer holds, at all times, more than one dollar of highly liquid assets for each dollar of liabilities (e.g., money owed to customers and counterparties), excluding liabilities that are subordinated to all other creditors by contractual agreement. The premise underlying the net capital rule is that if a broker-dealer fails, it should be in a position to meet all unsubordinated obligations to customers and counterparties and generate resources sufficient to wind down its operations in an orderly manner without the need of a formal proceeding...\
|
||||
> ...A broker-dealer must ensure that its actual net capital exceeds its required minimum net capital at all times. - [Source](https://www.mercatus.org/system/files/peirce_reframing_ch6.pdf)
|
||||
|
||||
Or in other words, you must have enough capital to not be "margin-called". In this case, Citadel is a prime victim to this rule as they are a Market Maker and must sustain enough net capital to not go bust. If they do not, they're a risk to their customers and counterparties. This rule tries to ensure that they have enough money to pay up in the event of a default.
|
||||
|
||||
The very interesting part of this rule comes down to how they're calculating Net Capital in regards to short securities:
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/jzzkxo2qsq471.png?width=1311&format=png&auto=webp&s=9b26ce9297defa1c10492f9d1e2b2c6a1bc07252)
|
||||
|
||||
Net Capital Rule; Short Securities Deduction From Net Capital Per "Days After Discovery"
|
||||
|
||||
What this basically means is that after the short security difference is found to be unresolved after discovery (think FTD popping up is the "discovery"), then it's going to slowly start eating away at their net capital the longer it remains unresolved/undelivered:
|
||||
|
||||
- Day 0 after discovery = 0% of the unresolved short security is calculated into their net capital
|
||||
|
||||
- Day 7 after discovery = 25% of the unresolved short security is calculated into their net capital
|
||||
|
||||
- Day 14 after discovery = 50% of the unresolved short security is calculated into their net capital
|
||||
|
||||
- Day 21 after discovery = 75% of the unresolved short security is calculated into their net capital
|
||||
|
||||
- Day 28 after discovery = 100% of the unresolved short security is calculated into their net capital
|
||||
|
||||
When you have these debts accounted for into your net capital, it is taking away that value, because it is a short difference you owe. As the days go by, net capital starts chunking down. So, if you have a rather large short security difference discovered one day (such as May 12th) then you want to resolve it quickly or risk defaulting.
|
||||
|
||||
Do you find a way to stuff the unresolved shorts back under the rug? Do you deliver and force buy-ins? Both? That appears to be the loop they've been stuck in, which slowly bumps the price floor upward.
|
||||
|
||||
You'll notice that there's a familiar number in there. Day 21. T+21? Oooh. Tasty. Here we go.
|
||||
|
||||
The total timeframe for Net Capital is [28 days](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ST2H8FWDvEA), but Citadel most likely cannot allow the Net Capital threshold to go past 75%. They must kick-the-can and force buy-ins on or before T+7, T+14, T+21 but complete the entire process by the net 75% threshold of T+21. They can't risk it going to 100% or else they'll most likely default.
|
||||
|
||||
Wham, bam, the T+21 loop ignites itself continuously.
|
||||
|
||||
3\. Plotting The Net Capital Loop - The Counter of T+21 and T+35
|
||||
|
||||
The major option dates still play a big role. But I don't think T+35 theory is what's really applying here.
|
||||
|
||||
What are "major options"? These are the only options that were available for the year 2021 back in early 2020. These are the option dates that were most likely opened up initially by shorters at the start of COVID. Perfect time to place bets and start their kill shot on GameStop:
|
||||
|
||||
- January 15, 2021
|
||||
|
||||
- April 16, 2021
|
||||
|
||||
- July 16, 2021
|
||||
|
||||
Upon expiration, unrealized losses now became realized losses, and their overall capital receives a dent. It most likely gets harder to hide FTDs and hide them under the rug.
|
||||
|
||||
You know the most curious thing?
|
||||
|
||||
Posts about Citadel working the night-shift started just after April 16th options expirations.
|
||||
|
||||
That's also right around when Bank of America shut down a bunch of their locations. I won't buy their excuses. Bank of America looks like they're a bag holder and is freaking out too.
|
||||
|
||||
Something big had to of happened as of April 16th, and it's most likely that they had a huge dent in their capital that is now causing a slow bleed-out of FTDs that they've hidden, which then must be satisfied within the Net Capital timeframe of T+7, T+14, T+21, T+28, or else they can go net negative and default.
|
||||
|
||||
And of course, following April 16 options expirations, the ETF FTDs start to skyrocket on May 12th. My main intuition is that they were unable to hide these any more and they have started to spill out. Ruh-roh.
|
||||
|
||||
First, I'll plot out the T+21 Net Capital loop so that it isn't too cluttered:
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/xh4u2ugmfs471.png?width=1438&format=png&auto=webp&s=85188eccc2bf3841bb98e37e5be98b8badcc01c7)
|
||||
|
||||
Plotted Net Capital "T+21" Cycle, December 22 to July 26
|
||||
|
||||
Upon December 22, the clock starts ticking. It's possible that at this point the price was too high for them to NOT worry about Net Capital any more, and they had to start can-kicking and forced buy-ins.
|
||||
|
||||
Each loop is separated T+21 because it appears that they cannot sustain higher than the 75% threshold each time. You can see the T+21 loop we're familiar with, starting December 22, and then traveling through January 25, February 24, March 25, April 26, May 25. And potentially continuing on to June 24 and July 26. [The next two dates if any apes are curious].
|
||||
|
||||
To get a closer look of the potential effects of the various Threshold amounts (T+7 (25%), T+14 (50%), T+21 (75%)) I've zoomed in on March 25th to May 25th. ENHANCE!
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/p6q5gox9fs471.png?width=1438&format=png&auto=webp&s=4da6c3ed2e8547ccd755b95ee895be235cbf9d44)
|
||||
|
||||
Plotted Net Capital "T+21" Cycle, March 25 to May 25, Price Spikes Prior to Each Threshold (T+7, T+14) Date
|
||||
|
||||
In the above it's unlikely but there is a chance that they have too many FTDs to shuffle around by the time Net Capital 25% (T+7) Threshold hits. This could initiate some buy-in pressure on or before that date, typically the day before, as outlined in the light green circle. The day before because they don't want those positions to be 50% upon the next day. They must be resolved BEFORE.
|
||||
|
||||
It is also unlikely but a greater chance that they have too many FTDs to shuffle around by the time Net Capital 50% (T+14) Threshold hits. This again could initiate some buy-in pressure on or before that date, typically the day before, as outlined in the blue circle.
|
||||
|
||||
And of course upon Net Capital 75% (T+21) Threshold, they must complete their rug-hiding and/or buy-ins to avoid going Net Negative. It is possible that the rug-hiding and buy-ins are in conjunction with one another, slowly increasing the price floor, and that between each threshold they try to short the stock more to push down the price.
|
||||
|
||||
Looping back to Section 1 when we identified the major FTD dates:
|
||||
|
||||
1. January 29th
|
||||
|
||||
2. February 2nd
|
||||
|
||||
3. February 18th
|
||||
|
||||
4. May 12th
|
||||
|
||||
There's a potential relationship to be seen with these insane FTD dates. Now this chart I'm about to show is highly speculative. I'm unsure if the Net Capital loop initiates upon the FTD spikes (though it certainly should, per Net Capital rule, because that would be when they are "discovered").
|
||||
|
||||
I say I'm unsure because I only see one data point here so far and somewhat of a second data point from the price run-up we've been seeing the past few days.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/424mtt66sq471.png?width=1433&format=png&auto=webp&s=7b11bb6a0a8f06bafb2471e7dfc0b64c90f1cb1a)
|
||||
|
||||
Plotted Net Capital "T+21" Cycle, December 22 to July 26, and FTD Spike Relationship
|
||||
|
||||
In the above picture, look at January 29th's FTD spike. Plotting the full 28 days of Net Capital out where 100% of the debts would be accounted for, that lands it on March 11th. They want to resolve this before March 11th, while the debts are still 75% accounted for. Remember that date? March 10th? I sure do. This could be why we saw the price spike, and why T+35 is incorrect in theory. But, it appears the major option dates still play a role, because of the May 12th FTD spike that just occurred, which followed April 16th options. Likewise, the January 15th options may have initiated the FTD spikes around January 29th and February 2nd.
|
||||
|
||||
If the same situation occurs due to the May 12th FTDs, then plotting out the full 28 days of Net Capital lands us on June 22nd. If these FTDs initiated Net Capital T+0 upon May 12th, then things could get crazy on or before June 22nd.
|
||||
|
||||
It is very possible that the run-up from May 25th to June 8th was all due to this new set of FTDs, and they had to start buy-ins on or before T+14 and T+21 from May 12th due to the sheer amount of unresolved shorts that were eating away at their Net Capital. If the FTDs aren't fully hidden again or all the buy-ins aren't complete, there's still T+28 to look towards, which lands on June 22nd. They would need to hide these FTDs again and/or buy-in on or before June 22nd. This would keep in line with the March 10th squeeze.
|
||||
|
||||
This could also very well explain what was going on with AMC. (Don't freak out on me yet, I love looking at AMC because it's very good analysis to track. It's been following the same exact T+21 pattern as GME)
|
||||
|
||||
4\. AMC Behavior - Given Up On By Shorts? Too Expensive To Juggle With GME?
|
||||
|
||||
AMC has gone on an absolute RUN. It increased nearly 70% in one day. Take a look at the following chart now that you know about Net Capital and the different T+7, T+14, T+21, T+28 Thresholds:
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/xn0tukmw4r471.png?width=1434&format=png&auto=webp&s=a679b5628fd370944ba680b6de0bf5e6dcadd35a)
|
||||
|
||||
AMC Behavior from May 12th to June 24th
|
||||
|
||||
Damn. Did they just GIVE UP on AMC and decide that it's too much to deal with? Do they not have enough capital to deal with both GME and AMC (and possibly other short meme stocks)? I think so, because this lines up quite well. They had to fix Net Capital for AMC by T+7 (25%) Threshold on June 4th probably because it was too expensive to handle alongside GME, and GME is the one they really need to keep their ammo for.
|
||||
|
||||
Between T+7 and T+14, they of course short some more, trying to pull the price down in preparation of the next Threshold cycle of T+14, which will probably cause an equivalent or greater amount of buy-ins. This lands on... June 15th. And if it's like previous cycles, that would imply that they want to do the buy-ins by June 14th (next Monday) to avoid those unresolved shorts hitting the next threshold amount. Big price spike coming again?
|
||||
|
||||
Even then, the current T+21 cycle isn't over. The threshold of 75% doesn't land until June 24th, where things very likely will continue to spike upward with an equivalent or greater spike of the run before T+7 (25%) Threshold.
|
||||
|
||||
I truly think that they've put all of their effort into containing GME and have more or less "given up" on AMC because it's not as big of a deal to them. That's why it's mooning like crazy while GME is taking a little time to wake up.
|
||||
|
||||
5\. GME Behavior - Shorts Holding On As Long As They Can
|
||||
|
||||
With the same exact timeframe of AMC, let's finally look at GME and the current cycle going on. The ETF FTDs from May 12th line up T+28 (100% Net Capital Threshold) on June 22nd. Again, if the Net Capital loop initiated upon that FTD spike, then things could get absolutely wild on or just before June 22nd.
|
||||
|
||||
Otherwise, it might just be the standard T+21 Net Capital loop, which has that extra pressure from the ETF FTDs, where the Net Capital loop initiated on May 25th, and ends on June 24th.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/p3yueytz4r471.png?width=1441&format=png&auto=webp&s=48a0f3e70ac922a345e5b58c0219bd1470dff2ab)
|
||||
|
||||
GME Behavior from May 12th to June 24th
|
||||
|
||||
By the time of T+7 (25% Threshold), it appears that they really needed to apply some buy-ins, and the price started to rise quite significantly. Just like AMC, but not as extreme, because they want to put all of their energy into keeping this bad boy from popping off.
|
||||
|
||||
Once again... take a look when T+14 (50% Threshold) will hit. June 15th. From the above analysis, the buy-ins would occur on or before this threshold date, typically right before. Know where that lands? Next Monday. June 14th.
|
||||
|
||||
It's possible that they won't be able to sustain to the 75% threshold any more, but now must sustain the 50% threshold of T+14 where they need to resolve their unresolved shorts by.
|
||||
|
||||
Maybe there will be a big price spike next Monday. Otherwise, keep an eye out for the T+28 date of the ETF FTDs, landing June 22nd, or the original T+21 date, landing June 24th.
|
||||
|
||||
I believe we're also waiting for the Russell 1000 change the week of June 24th. ;)
|
@ -0,0 +1,140 @@
|
||||
I found a correlation in why REVERSE REPO RATES are exponentially growing, Gamestop & crypto and its in NSCC 802
|
||||
================================================================================================================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/con101smd](https://www.reddit.com/user/con101smd/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nz0fsz/i_found_a_correlation_in_why_reverse_repo_rates/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
[DD 👨🔬](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22DD%20%F0%9F%91%A8%E2%80%8D%F0%9F%94%AC%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||
A very tiny bit about my backround.
|
||||
|
||||
I worked in private banking and savings and investments for a big bank in the UK and then moved to a competitor in which I worked in ISA investments for some time.
|
||||
|
||||
I have always been entrepenuerial and have for the last few years been out on my own having had enough of banking I ended up getting into GPU mining and running passive incomes through PoW mining and then PoS mining (this is relevent bare with me)
|
||||
|
||||
So currently I mine crypto into my ewallet portfolio and then I run my stocks and shares portfolio.
|
||||
|
||||
In crypto you have 2 ways to create it.
|
||||
|
||||
1: PoW - Proof of work mining.
|
||||
|
||||
This is the physical eletric consuming hardware route. You use this method to unlock the next block in the blockchain (the B coin and the E coin)
|
||||
|
||||
2\. PoS - Proof of stake (Staking)
|
||||
|
||||
(now this is important)
|
||||
|
||||
This is DeFi - Decentralized Finance.
|
||||
|
||||
This is a non physical way of creating crypto and it is based around the fundamentals that if you stake your asset, you add your funds to a giant liquidity pool in which the more funds in it, the easier the flow of transactions in and out to bounce off other curriences against it. In short you get paid handsomely to be an automatic market maker through whats called 'smart contracts'
|
||||
|
||||
In return for staking your money in these liquidity pools you are paid a live constantly rolling interest payment that works out on average maybe 100% per annum. These interest payments can be capitalized and compounded in your intial investment.
|
||||
|
||||
In other words, whilst you buy and hold a crypto, you are earning a constant high yielding dividend payment on it and still have the ability to move funds in and out without any hinderence or clauses.
|
||||
|
||||
there are several DeFi platforms that are popular like:
|
||||
|
||||
PANCAKE SWAP <https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/pancakeswap/>
|
||||
|
||||
and
|
||||
|
||||
UNI SWAP <https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/uniswap/>
|
||||
|
||||
SO YOURE WONDERING RIGHT NOW WHY IN THE FUCK AM I TALKING CRYPTO ON SUPERSTONK?
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/0xii24b9a2571.png?width=2000&format=png&auto=webp&s=7cac90e8e601f9391df0ba1196ba5bc6612dd120)
|
||||
|
||||
I see what your at Kenny, I se ya buddy
|
||||
|
||||
When the filing: SR-NSCC-2021-802 was posted I can remember at the time hearing grumblings about crypto not being accepted as liquidity on balance books but had never considered its ramifications.
|
||||
|
||||
please find below some of my findings.
|
||||
|
||||
on page 14 of SR-NSCC-2021-802 April 29, 2021
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/se13ie46a2571.png?width=746&format=png&auto=webp&s=9912fa13f4fdcffd7b0d65a1529d41a9bb15f4f0)
|
||||
|
||||
https://www.sec.gov/rules/sro/nscc-an/2021/34-91720.pdf PG 14
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/ooadzkjz92571.png?width=742&format=png&auto=webp&s=b63eabf13080da8d41024afd8320cff7edda69f3)
|
||||
|
||||
https://www.sec.gov/rules/sro/nscc-an/2021/34-91720.pdf PG 14
|
||||
|
||||
So in the NSCC filing it defines that the only acceptable form of 'qualifying liquid resources' to include, among other things, lines of credit without material adverse change provisions, that are readily available and convertible into cash.
|
||||
|
||||
Now this filing was on april 29th and had 5 business days to be enacted.
|
||||
|
||||
This takes us to May 4th.
|
||||
|
||||
Remember me randomly talking about DeFi UNI SWAP AND PANCAKE SWAP?
|
||||
|
||||
Well have a look at this.........
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/knp62xbl92571.png?width=975&format=png&auto=webp&s=b6fbf88630618801c8eff7634e4c7937e996f961)
|
||||
|
||||
https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/pancakeswap/
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/9qjsb3vn92571.png?width=963&format=png&auto=webp&s=52a252ca5d1e66ca6b25a64d0a3a5fa2d54eca21)
|
||||
|
||||
https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/uniswap/
|
||||
|
||||
you can see volume increases similar to short sold volume on GME : every spike in volume relates to a movement in GME
|
||||
|
||||
They were parking their money in places where the daily returns were better than the daily interest costs to borrow the shares
|
||||
|
||||
Nearly all the PoS cryptos peaked on May 3rd evening time rolling into May 4th
|
||||
|
||||
So when did our reverse repo rates kick off, oh go on lets have a wee lookie look and see.........
|
||||
|
||||
Looks like the exponential rocket ignited some time between may 3rd overnight and oh my god May the forth be with you right before Cinco De Buyo day happened.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/ou630ghi92571.png?width=1168&format=png&auto=webp&s=601fcb2809df51fa1d478744ff8be45e474ff3d1)
|
||||
|
||||
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/RRPONTSYD#
|
||||
|
||||
I believe that prior to the NSCC filing being passed and enacted, the SHF have been using DeFi Proof of stake coins to hide a lot of the cash that had been amassed from having sold short soo many shares across the field, not only in GME.
|
||||
|
||||
If you look at the correlation of when the Reverse Repo Rates ignited, it is the same time of this filing, the same time crypto PoS tanks, and the same time that the NSCC enacts the filing to prevent crypto being used as liquid.
|
||||
|
||||
I believe that prior to May 4th, these coins have been the primary location for hiding funds gathered through naked short selling, and prior to may 4th these coins were considered liquid assets on the bank balance sheets. Post May 4th, they are no longer considered liquid but rather assets and so we then saw the overall down turn of the crypto markets.
|
||||
|
||||
I cannot find the specific document but from memory I believe there was further information late apr/early may that procluded that Crypto due to reclassification as an asset rather than liquid would be eligibl for different tax status (commodities/equities taxes i have no idea about sorry)
|
||||
|
||||
EDIT: Timeline added from comments courtesy of [u/Taimpeng](https://www.reddit.com/u/Taimpeng/) tyvm kind ape, you rock
|
||||
|
||||
End of Q1/March: DTC/creditors realize this is not going away.
|
||||
|
||||
[April 1st, SR-DTC-2021-005 announced for review](https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/comments/mi3xdt/dtcc_new_proposed_rule_change_dtc2021005/) - The nuclear option ("MAD"). Would blow up GME shorts and also everyone else in the market running similar scams.
|
||||
|
||||
[April 8th, SR-NSCC-2021-802 announced for review, comments, etc.](https://www.dtcc.com/-/media/Files/Downloads/legal/rule-filings/2021/NSCC/SR-NSCC-2021-802.pdf) - A tactical nuke revealed. By removing the ability to leverage crypto markets *simultaneously for revenue and collateral reqs*, the short position will be unsustainable.
|
||||
|
||||
[April 12th, SR-DTC-2021-005 PULLED (INDEFINITELY) FOR "REFORMATTING"](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/mpmcyz/good_news_update_on_dtc2021005_according_to_john/) - With the tactical nuke in place, no need to keep full-scale Armageddon on the table, right?
|
||||
|
||||
[May 4th, SR-NSCC-2021-802 takes effect](https://www.dtcc.com/-/media/Files/Downloads/legal/rule-filings/2021/NSCC/SR-NSCC-2021-802-Approval-Notice.pdf) - Tactical nuke detonation.
|
||||
|
||||
[May 5th+ Overnight repos explode](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/RRPONTSYD#). Many DDs suggest the ON RRP is "a liquidity problem framed as a collateral problem". It's both because the tactical nuke hit both.
|
||||
|
||||
TL:DR:
|
||||
|
||||
SHF used proof of stake crypto to churn profits from their large lumps of cash from naked short selling. the SEC said no, not happening. SHF now all of a sudden have all these tendies and no where to park them that they can get safety or high yield profits so they are parking their tendies with the fed.
|
||||
|
||||
Now remember the way I mentioned several dates:
|
||||
|
||||
April 26th: this was the cut off point for NSCC 802 to be contested. It was not contested.
|
||||
|
||||
R C tweeted on apr 26th that everything was on track
|
||||
|
||||
April 29th was the date that NSCC 802 would start to be initated to be completed by 4th May
|
||||
|
||||
R C tweeted on Apr 29th a meme of Mr Hanky
|
||||
|
||||
APE NOT A FINANCIAL ADVISOR
|
||||
|
||||
BUY, HODL, BUCKLE UP
|
||||
|
||||
All of those charts, all those repo spike tendies, all that money across the board is bubbling out of every seem and the ony place it can go is into our pockets!
|
||||
|
||||
CANTSTOP. WONTSTOP. GAMESTOP.
|
430
DD/2021-06-15-The-Bigger-Short.md
Normal file
430
DD/2021-06-15-The-Bigger-Short.md
Normal file
@ -0,0 +1,430 @@
|
||||
The Bigger Short. How 2008 is repeating, at a much greater magnitude, and COVID ignited the fuse. GME is not the reason for the market crash. GME was the fatal flaw of Wall Street in their infinite money cheat that they did not expect.
|
||||
===========================================================================================================================================================================================================================================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/Criand](https://www.reddit.com/user/Criand/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/o0scoy/the_bigger_short_how_2008_is_repeating_at_a_much/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
[DD 👨🔬](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22DD%20%F0%9F%91%A8%E2%80%8D%F0%9F%94%AC%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||
0\. Preface
|
||||
|
||||
I am not a financial advisor, and I do not provide financial advice. Many thoughts here are my opinion, and others can be speculative.
|
||||
|
||||
TL;DR - (Though I think you REALLY should consider reading because it is important to understand what is going on):
|
||||
|
||||
- The market crash of 2008 never finished. It was can-kicked and the same people who caused the crash have still been running rampant doing the same bullshit in the derivatives market as that market continues to be unregulated. They're profiting off of short-term gains at the risk of killing their institutions and potentially the global economy. Only this time it is much, much worse.
|
||||
|
||||
- The bankers abused smaller amounts of leverage for the 2008 bubble and have since abused much higher amounts of leverage - creating an even larger speculative bubble. Not just in the stock market and derivatives market, but also in the crypt0 market, upwards of 100x leverage.
|
||||
|
||||
- COVID came in and rocked the economy to the point where the Fed is now pinned between a rock and a hard place. In order to buy more time, the government triggered a flurry of protective measures, such as mortgage forbearance, expiring end of Q2 on June 30th, 2021, and SLR exemptions, which expired March 31, 2021. The market was going to crash regardless. GME was and never will be the reason for the market crashing.
|
||||
|
||||
- The rich made a fatal error in way overshorting stocks. There is a potential for their decades of sucking money out of taxpayers to be taken back. The derivatives market is potentially a $1 Quadrillion market. "Meme prices" are not meme prices. There is so much money in the world, and you are just accustomed to thinking the "meme prices" are too high to feasibly reach.
|
||||
|
||||
- The DTC, ICC, OCC have been passing rules and regulations (auction and wind-down plans) so that they can easily eat up competition and consolidate power once again like in 2008. The people in charge, including Gary Gensler, are not your friends.
|
||||
|
||||
- The DTC, ICC, OCC are also passing rules to make sure that retail will never be able to to do this again. These rules are for the future market (post market crash) and they never want anyone to have a chance to take their game away from them again. These rules are not to start the MOASS. They are indirectly regulating retail so that a short squeeze condition can never occur after GME.
|
||||
|
||||
- The COVID pandemic exposed a lot of banks through the Supplementary Leverage Ratio (SLR) where mass borrowing (leverage) almost made many banks default. Banks have account 'blocks' on the Fed's balance sheet which holds their treasuries and deposits. The SLR exemption made it so that these treasuries and deposits of the banks 'accounts' on the Fed's balance sheet were not calculated into SLR, which allowed them to boost their SLR until March 31, 2021 and avoid defaulting. Now, they must extract treasuries from the Fed in reverse repo to avoid defaulting from SLR requirements. This results in the reverse repo market explosion as they are scrambling to survive due to their mass leverage.
|
||||
|
||||
- This is not a "retail vs. Melvin/Point72/Citadel" issue. This is a "retail vs. Mega Banks" issue. The rich, and I mean all of Wall Street, are trying desperately to shut GameStop down because it has the chance to suck out trillions if not hundreds of trillions from the game they've played for decades. They've rigged this game since the 1990's when derivatives were first introduced. Do you really think they, including the Fed, wouldn't pull all the stops now to try to get you to sell?
|
||||
|
||||
End TL;DR
|
||||
|
||||
A ton of the information provided in this post is from the movie Inside Job (2010). I am paraphrasing from the movie as well as taking direct quotes, so please understand that a bunch of this information is a summary of that film.
|
||||
|
||||
I understand that The Big Short (2015) is much more popular here, due to it being a more Hollywood style movie, but it does not go into such great detail of the conditions that led to the crash - and how things haven't even changed. But in fact, got worse, and led us to where we are now.
|
||||
|
||||
Seriously. Go. Watch. Inside Job. It is a documentary with interviews of many people, including those who were involved in the Ponzi Scheme of the derivative market bomb that led to the crash of 2008, and their continued lobbying to influence the Government to keep regulations at bay.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/vvdd32qkei571.png?width=776&format=png&auto=webp&s=982445a99f17af054bd351990017e364b137cf02)
|
||||
|
||||
Inside Job (2010) Promotional
|
||||
|
||||
1\. The Market Crash Of 2008
|
||||
|
||||
1.1 The Casino Of The Financial World: The Derivatives Market
|
||||
|
||||
It all started back in the 1990's when the Derivative Market was created. This was the opening of the literal Casino in the financial world. These are bets placed upon an underlying asset, index, or entity, and are very risky. Derivatives are contracts between two or more parties that derives its value from the performance of the underlying asset, index, or entity.
|
||||
|
||||
One such derivative many are familiar with are options (CALLs and PUTs). Other examples of derivatives are fowards, futures, swaps, and variations of those such as Collateralized Debt Obligations (CDOs), and Credit Default Swaps (CDS).
|
||||
|
||||
The potential to make money off of these trades is insane. Take your regular CALL option for example. You no longer take home a 1:1 return when the underlying stock rises or falls $1. Your returns can be amplified by magnitudes more. Sometimes you might make a 10:1 return on your investment, or 20:1, and so forth.
|
||||
|
||||
Not only this, you can grab leverage by borrowing cash from some other entity. This allows your bets to potentially return that much more money. You can see how this gets out of hand really fast, because the amount of cash that can be gained absolutely skyrockets versus traditional investments.
|
||||
|
||||
Attempts were made to regulate the derivatives market, but due to mass lobbying from Wall Street, regulations were continuously shut down. People continued to try to pass regulations, until in 2000, the [Commodity Futures Modernization Act](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Commodity_Futures_Modernization_Act_of_2000) banned the regulation of derivatives outright.
|
||||
|
||||
And of course, once the Derivatives Market was left unchecked, it was off to the races for Wall Street to begin making tons of risky bets and surging their profits.
|
||||
|
||||
The Derivative Market exploded in size once regulation was banned and de-regulation of the financial world continued. You can see as of 2000, the cumulative derivatives market was already out of control.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/9igfmi69di571.png?width=578&format=png&auto=webp&s=27fefbf3443e8be528849221f2eadeb1a5c10833)
|
||||
|
||||
https://www.hilarispublisher.com/open-access/investment-banks-and-credit-institutions-the-ignored-and-unregulateddiversity-2151-6219-1000224.pdf
|
||||
|
||||
The Derivatives Market is big. Insanely big. Look at how it compares to Global Wealth.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/s22atssgdi571.png?width=1029&format=png&auto=webp&s=086dcebf3e710052f78b7490150203d0f8376b89)
|
||||
|
||||
https://www.visualcapitalist.com/all-of-the-worlds-money-and-markets-in-one-visualization-2020/
|
||||
|
||||
At the bottom of the list are three derivatives entries, with "Market Value" and "Notional Value" called out.
|
||||
|
||||
The "Market Value" is the value of the derivative at its current trading price.
|
||||
|
||||
The "Notional Value" is the value of the derivative if it was at the strike price.
|
||||
|
||||
E.g. A CALL option (a derivative) represents 100 shares of ABC stock with a strike of $50. Perhaps it is trading in the market at $1 per contract right now.
|
||||
|
||||
- Market Value = 100 shares * $1.00 per contract = $100
|
||||
|
||||
- Notional Value = 100 shares * $50 strike price = $5,000
|
||||
|
||||
Visual Capitalist estimates that the cumulative Notional Value of derivatives is between $558 Trillion and $1 Quadrillion. So yeah. You are not going to cause a market crash if GME sells for millions per share. The rich are already priming the market crash through the Derivatives Market.
|
||||
|
||||
1.2 CDOs And Mortgage Backed Securities
|
||||
|
||||
Decades ago, the system of paying mortgages used to be between two parties. The buyer, and the loaner. Since the movement of money was between the buyer and the loaner, the loaner was very careful to ensure that the buyer would be able to pay off their loan and not miss payments.
|
||||
|
||||
But now, it's a chain.
|
||||
|
||||
1. Home buyers will buy a loan from the lenders.
|
||||
|
||||
2. The lenders will then sell those loans to Investment Banks.
|
||||
|
||||
3. The Investment Banks then combine thousands of mortgages and other loans, including car loans, student loans, and credit card debt to create complex derivatives called "Collateralized Debt Obligations (CDO's)".
|
||||
|
||||
4. The Investment Banks then pay Rating Agencies to rate their CDO's. This can be on a scale of "AAA", the best possible rating, equivalent to government-backed securities, all the way down to C/D, which are junk bonds and very risky. Many of these CDO's were given AAA ratings despite being filled with junk.
|
||||
|
||||
5. The Investment Banks then take these CDO's and sell them to investors, including retirement funds, because that was the rating required for retirement funds as they would only purchase highly rated securities.
|
||||
|
||||
6. Now when the homeowner pays their mortgage, the money flows directly into the investors. The investors are the main ones who will be hurt if the CDO's containing the mortgages begin to fail.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/0xtaww3ydi571.png?width=1493&format=png&auto=webp&s=f448a113043b043243efd879f174493bd33423fe)
|
||||
|
||||
Inside Job (2010) - Flow Of Money For Mortgage Payments
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/uyk9ms4fei571.png?width=756&format=png&auto=webp&s=d61e9a0754b676e64a1f6c97277ba877e946fcb6)
|
||||
|
||||
https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/09/bond-rating.asp
|
||||
|
||||
1.3 The Bubble of Subprime Loans Packed In CDOs
|
||||
|
||||
This system became a ticking timebomb due to this potential of free short-term gain cash. Lenders didn't care if a borrower could repay, so they would start handing out riskier loans. The investment banks didn't care if there were riskier loans, because the more CDO's sold to investors resulted in more profit. And the Rating Agencies didn't care because there were no regulatory constraints and there was no liability if their ratings of the CDO's proved to be wrong.
|
||||
|
||||
So they went wild and pumped out more and more loans, and more and more CDOs. Between 2000 and 2003, the number of mortgage loans made each year nearly quadrupled. They didn't care about the quality of the mortgage - they cared about maximizing the volume and getting profit out of it.
|
||||
|
||||
In the early 2000s there was a huge increase in the riskiest loans - "Subprime Loans". These are loans given to people who have low income, limited credit history, poor credit, etc. They are very at risk to not pay their mortgages. It was predatory lending, because it hunted for potential home buyers who would never be able to pay back their mortgages so that they could continue to pack these up into CDO's.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/wsr30iorei571.png?width=1447&format=png&auto=webp&s=59cf72f6eb8209d69e0a13ccf2f0127e69a45142)
|
||||
|
||||
Inside Job (2010) - % Of Subprime Loans
|
||||
|
||||
In fact, the investment banks preferred subprime loans, because they carried higher interest rates and more profit for them.
|
||||
|
||||
So the Investment Banks took these subprime loans, packaged the subprime loans up into CDO's, and many of them still received AAA ratings. These can be considered "toxic CDO's" because of their high ability to default and fail despite their ratings.
|
||||
|
||||
Pretty much anyone could get a home now. Purchases of homes and housing prices skyrocketed. It didn't matter because everyone in the chain was making money in an unregulated market.
|
||||
|
||||
1.4 Short Term Greed At The Risk Of Institutional And Economic Failure
|
||||
|
||||
In Wall Street, annual cash bonuses started to spike. Traders and CEOs became extremely wealthy in this bubble as they continued to pump more toxic CDO's into the market. Lehman Bros. was one of the top underwriters of subprime lending and their CEO alone took home over $485 million in bonuses.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/io87r9vxei571.png?width=1494&format=png&auto=webp&s=944300df8faf8da35d75de6f10fb951a6d230154)
|
||||
|
||||
Inside Job (2010) Wall Street Bonuses
|
||||
|
||||
And it was all short-term gain, high risk, with no worries about the potential failure of your institution or the economy. When things collapsed, they would not need to pay back their bonuses and gains. They were literally risking the entire world economy for the sake of short-term profits.
|
||||
|
||||
AND THEY EVEN TOOK IT FURTHER WITH LEVERAGE TO MAXIMIZE PROFITS.
|
||||
|
||||
During the bubble from 2000 to 2007, the investment banks were borrowing heavily to buy more loans and to create more CDO's. The ratio of banks borrowed money and their own money was their leverage. The more they borrowed, the higher their leverage. They abused leverage to continue churning profits. And are still abusing massive leverage to this day. It might even be much higher leverage today than what it was back in the Housing Market Bubble.
|
||||
|
||||
In 2004, Henry Paulson, the CEO of Goldman Sachs, helped lobby the SEC to relax limits on leverage, allowing the banks to sharply increase their borrowing. Basically, the SEC allowed investment banks to gamble a lot more. Investment banks would go up to about 33-to-1 leverage at the time of the 2008 crash. Which means if a 3% decrease occurred in their asset base, it would leave them insolvent. Henry Paulson would later become the Secretary Of The Treasury from 2006 to 2009. He was just one of many Wall Street executives to eventually make it into Government positions. Including the infamous Gary Gensler, the current SEC chairman, who helped block derivative market regulations.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/k87x53h7fi571.png?width=1619&format=png&auto=webp&s=b12004d6bb3e70643516ef0477303f4652ccd348)
|
||||
|
||||
Inside Job (2010) Leverage Abuse of 2008
|
||||
|
||||
The borrowing exploded, the profits exploded, and it was all at the risk of obliterating their institutions and possibly the global economy. Some of these banks knew that they were "too big to fail" and could push for bailouts at the expense of taxpayers. Especially when they began planting their own executives in positions of power.
|
||||
|
||||
1.5 Credit Default Swaps (CDS)
|
||||
|
||||
To add another ticking bomb to the system, AIG, the worlds largest insurance company, got into the game with another type of derivative. They began selling Credit Default Swaps (CDS).
|
||||
|
||||
For investors who owned CDO's, CDS's worked like an insurance policy. An investor who purchased a CDS paid AIG a quarterly premium. If the CDO went bad, AIG promised to pay the investor for their losses. Think of it like insuring a car. You're paying premiums, but if you get into an accident, the insurance will pay up (some of the time at least).
|
||||
|
||||
But unlike regular insurance, where you can only insure your car once, speculators could also purchase CDS's from AIG in order to bet against CDO's they didn't own. You could suddenly have a sense of rehypothecation where fifty, one hundred entities might now have insurance against a CDO.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/7xoupx0ffi571.png?width=1258&format=png&auto=webp&s=869beb0d99b9fbb4108cd5af692d0a6332fd52dd)
|
||||
|
||||
Inside Job (2010) Payment Flow of CDS's
|
||||
|
||||
If you've watched The Big Short (2015), you might remember the Credit Default Swaps, because those are what Michael Burry and others purchased to bet against the Subprime Mortgage CDO's.
|
||||
|
||||
CDS's were unregulated, so AIG didn't have to set aside any money to cover potential losses. Instead, AIG paid its employees huge cash bonuses as soon as contracts were signed in order to incentivize the sales of these derivatives. But if the CDO's later went bad, AIG would be on the hook. It paid everyone short-term gains while pushing the bill to the company itself without worrying about footing the bill if shit hit the fan. People once again were being rewarded with short-term profit to take these massive risks.
|
||||
|
||||
AIG's Financial Products division in London issued over $500B worth of CDS's during the bubble. Many of these CDS's were for CDO's backed by subprime mortgages.
|
||||
|
||||
The 400 employees of AIGFP made $3.5B between 2000 and 2007. And the head of AIGFP personally made $315M.
|
||||
|
||||
1.6 The Crash And Consumption Of Banks To Consolidate Power
|
||||
|
||||
By late 2006, Goldman Sachs took it one step further. It didn't just sell toxic CDO's, it started actively betting against them at the same time it was telling customers that they were high-quality investments.
|
||||
|
||||
Goldman Sachs would purchase CDS's from AIG and bet against CDO's it didn't own, and got paid when those CDO's failed. Goldman bought at least $22B in CDS's from AIG, and it was so much that Goldman realized AIG itself might go bankrupt (which later on it would and the Government had to bail them out). So Goldman spent $150M insuring themselves against AIG's potential collapse. They purchased CDS's against AIG.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/m54zv03yfi571.png?width=1411&format=png&auto=webp&s=f6cb605b4c9b36c22e60cd8205b80bd6ac770fac)
|
||||
|
||||
Inside Job (2010) Payment From AIG To Goldman Sachs If CDO's Failed
|
||||
|
||||
Then in 2007, Goldman went even further. They started selling CDO's specifically designed so that the more money their customers lost, the more Goldman Sachs made.
|
||||
|
||||
Many other banks did the same. They created shitty CDO's, sold them, while simultaneously bet that they would fail with CDS's. All of these CDO's were sold to customers as "safe" investments because of the complicit Rating Agencies.
|
||||
|
||||
The three rating agencies, Moody's, S&P and Fitch, made billions of dollars giving high ratings to these risky securities. Moody's, the largest ratings agency, quadrupled its profits between 2000 and 2007. The more AAA's they gave out, the higher their compensation and earnings were for the quarter. AAA ratings mushroomed from a handful in 2000 to thousands by 2006. Hundreds of billions of dollars worth of CDO's were being rated AAA per year. When it all collapsed and the ratings agencies were called before Congress, the rating agencies expressed that it was "their opinion" of the rating in order to weasel their way out of blame. Despite knowing that they were toxic and did not deserve anything above 'junk' rating.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/tto0v644gi571.png?width=1332&format=png&auto=webp&s=f4361dcc23801691d46ec88b241c7d5fa56e2aaf)
|
||||
|
||||
Inside Job (2010) Ratings Agencies Profits
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/91dpnu78gi571.png?width=1259&format=png&auto=webp&s=1f196573f47a757a8bcca8b9e712c537be84cbe2)
|
||||
|
||||
Inside Job (2010) - Insane Increase of AAA Rated CDOs
|
||||
|
||||
By 2008, home foreclosures were skyrocketing. Home buyers in the subprime loans were defaulting on their payments. Lenders could no longer sell their loans to the investment banks. And as the loans went bad, dozens of lenders failed. The market for CDO's collapsed, leaving the investment banks holding hundreds of billions of dollars in loans, CDO's, and real estate they couldn't sell. Meanwhile, those who purchased up CDS's were knocking at the door to be paid.
|
||||
|
||||
In March 2008, Bear Stearns ran out of cash and was acquired for $2 a share by JPMorgan Chase. The deal was backed by $30B in emergency guarantees by the Fed Reserve. This was just one instance of a bank getting consumed by a larger entity.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/gbgc30vlhi571.png?width=873&format=png&auto=webp&s=74def34d1783c5e3195492913370e6ae65670301)
|
||||
|
||||
https://www.history.com/this-day-in-history/bear-stearns-sold-to-j-p-morgan-chase
|
||||
|
||||
AIG, Bear Stearns, Lehman Bros, Fannie Mae, and Freddie Mac, were all AA or above rating days before either collapsing or being bailed out. Meaning they were 'very secure', yet they failed.
|
||||
|
||||
The Fed Reserve and Big Banks met together in order to discuss bailouts for different banks, and they decided to let Lehman Brothers fail as well.
|
||||
|
||||
The Government also then took over AIG, and a day after the takeover, asked the Government for $700B in bailouts for big banks. At this point in time, the person in charge of handling the financial crisis, Henry Paulson, former CEO of Goldman Sachs, worked with the chairman of the Federal Reserve to force AIG to pay Goldman Sachs some of its bailout money at 100-cents on the dollar. Meaning there was no negotiation of lower prices. Conflict of interest much?
|
||||
|
||||
The Fed and Henry Paulson also forced AIG to surrender their right to sue Goldman Sachs and other banks for fraud.
|
||||
|
||||
This is but a small glimpse of the consolidation of power in big banks from the 2008 crash. They let others fail and scooped up their assets in the crisis.
|
||||
|
||||
After the crash of 2008, big banks are more powerful and more consolidated than ever before. And the DTC, ICC, OCC rules are planning on making that worse through the auction and wind-down plans where big banks can once again consume other entities that default.
|
||||
|
||||
1.7 The Can-Kick To Continue The Game Of Derivative Market Greed
|
||||
|
||||
After the crisis, the financial industry worked harder than ever to fight reform. The financial sector, as of 2010, employed over 3000 lobbyists. More than five for each member of Congress. Between 1998 and 2008 the financial industry spent over $5B on lobbying and campaign contributions. And ever since the crisis, they're spending even more money.
|
||||
|
||||
President Barack Obama campaigned heavily on "Change" and "Reform" of Wall Street, but when in office, nothing substantial was passed. But this goes back for decades - the Government has been in the pocket of the rich for a long time, both parties, both sides, and their influence through lobbying undoubtedly prevented any actual change from occurring.
|
||||
|
||||
So their game of playing the derivative market was green-lit to still run rampant following the 2008 crash and mass bailouts from the Government at the expense of taxpayers.
|
||||
|
||||
There's now more consolidation of banks, more consolidation of power, more years of deregulation, and over a decade that they used to continue the game. And just like in 2008, it's happening again. We're on the brink of another market crash and potentially a global financial crisis.
|
||||
|
||||
2\. The New CDO Game, And How COVID Uppercut To The System
|
||||
|
||||
2.1 Abuse Of Commercial Mortgage Backed Securities
|
||||
|
||||
It's not just [/u/atobitt](https://www.reddit.com/u/atobitt/)'s "House Of Cards" where the US Treasury Market has been abused. It is abuse of many forms of collateral and securities this time around.
|
||||
|
||||
It's the same thing as 2008, but much worse due to even higher amounts of leverage in the system on top of massive amounts of liquidity and potential inflation from stimulus money of the COVID crisis.
|
||||
|
||||
Here's an excerpt from [The Bigger Short: Wall Street's Cooked Books Fueled The Financial Crisis of 2008. It's Happening Again](https://theintercept.com/2021/04/20/wall-street-cmbs-dollar-general-ladder-capital/):
|
||||
|
||||
> A longtime industry analyst has uncovered creative accounting on a startling scale in the commercial real estate market, in ways similar to the "liar loans" handed out during the mid-2000s for residential real estate, according to financial records examined by the analyst and reviewed by The Intercept. A recent, large-scale academic study backs up his conclusion, finding that banks such as Goldman Sachs and Citigroup have systematically reported erroneously inflated income data that compromises the integrity of the resulting securities.
|
||||
>
|
||||
> ...
|
||||
>
|
||||
> The analyst's findings, first reported by ProPublica last year, are the subject of a whistleblower complaint he filed in 2019 with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Moreover, the analyst has identified complex financial machinations by one financial institution, one that both issues loans and manages a real estate trust, that may ultimately help one of its top tenants --- the low-cost, low-wage store Dollar General --- flourish while devastating smaller retailers.
|
||||
>
|
||||
> This time, the issue is not a bubble in the housing market, but apparent widespread inflation of the value of commercial businesses, on which loans are based.
|
||||
>
|
||||
> ...
|
||||
>
|
||||
> Now it may be happening again --- this time not with residential mortgage-backed securities, based on loans for homes, but commercial mortgage-backed securities, or CMBS, based on loans for businesses. And this industrywide scheme is colliding with a collapse of the commercial real estate market amid the pandemic, which has business tenants across the country unable to make their payments.
|
||||
|
||||
They've been abusing Commercial Mortgage Backed Securities (CMBS) this time around, and potentially have still been abusing other forms of collateral - they might still be hitting MBS as well as treasury bonds per [/u/atobitt](https://www.reddit.com/u/atobitt/)'s DD.
|
||||
|
||||
John M. Griffin and Alex Priest released a study last November. They sampled almost 40,000 CMBS loans with a market capitalization of $650 billion underwritten from the beginning of 2013 to the end of 2019. Their findings were that large banks had 35% or more loans exhibiting 5% or greater income overstatements.
|
||||
|
||||
The below chart shows the overstatements of the biggest problem-making banks. The difference in bars is between samples taken from data between 2013-2015, and then data between 2016-2019. Almost every single bank experienced a positive move up over time of overstatements.
|
||||
|
||||
> Unintentional overstatement should have occurred at random times. Or if lenders were assiduous and the overstatement was unwitting, one might expect it to diminish over time as the lenders discovered their mistakes. Instead, with almost every lender, the overstatement *increased* as time went on. - [Source](https://theintercept.com/2021/04/20/wall-street-cmbs-dollar-general-ladder-capital/)
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/5xmcu9hwhi571.png?width=846&format=png&auto=webp&s=66f636574bd66afd3512b9587981e4caaa381cf3)
|
||||
|
||||
https://theintercept.com/2021/04/20/wall-street-cmbs-dollar-general-ladder-capital/
|
||||
|
||||
So what does this mean? It means they've once again been handing out subprime loans (predatory loans). But this time to businesses through Commercial Mortgage Backed Securities.
|
||||
|
||||
Just like Mortgage-Backed Securities from 2000 to 2007, the loaners will go around, hand out loans to businesses, and rake in the profits while having no concern over the potential for the subprime loans failing.
|
||||
|
||||
2.2 COVID's Uppercut Sent Them Scrambling
|
||||
|
||||
The system was propped up to fail just like from the 2000-2007 Housing Market Bubble. Now we are in a speculative bubble of the entire market along with the Commercial Market Bubble due to continued mass leverage abuse of the world.
|
||||
|
||||
Hell - also in Crypt0currencies that were introduced after the 2008 crash. Did you know that you can get over 100x leverage in crypt0 right now? Imagine how terrifying that crash could be if the other markets fail.
|
||||
|
||||
There is SO. MUCH. LEVERAGE. ABUSE. IN. THE. WORLD. All it takes is one fatal blow to bring it all down - and it sure as hell looks like COVID was that uppercut to send everything into a death spiral.
|
||||
|
||||
When COVID hit, many people were left without jobs. Others had less pay from the jobs they kept. It rocked the financial world and it was so unexpected. Apartment residents would now become delinquent, causing the apartment complexes to become delinquent. Business owners would be hurting for cash to pay their mortgages as well due to lack of business. The subprime loans all started to become a really big issue.
|
||||
|
||||
Delinquency rates of Commercial Mortgages started to skyrocket when the COVID crisis hit. They even surpassed 2008 levels in March of 2020. Remember what happened in 2008 when this occurred? When delinquency rates went up on mortgages in 2008, the CDO's of those mortgages began to fail. But, this time, they can-kicked it because COVID caught them all off guard.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/cqbceix0ii571.png?width=848&format=png&auto=webp&s=da81781094a31ae1293b019c4e24f68dfdccc634)
|
||||
|
||||
https://theintercept.com/2021/04/20/wall-street-cmbs-dollar-general-ladder-capital/
|
||||
|
||||
2.3 Can-Kick Of COVID To Prevent CDO's From Defaulting Before Being Ready
|
||||
|
||||
COVID sent them Scrambling. They could not allow these CDO's to fail just yet, because they wanted to get their rules in place to help them consume other failing entities at a whim.
|
||||
|
||||
Like in 2008, they wanted to not only protect themselves when the nuke went off from these decades of derivatives abuse, they wanted to be able to scoop up the competition easily. That is when the DTC, ICC, and OCC began drafting their auction and wind-down plans.
|
||||
|
||||
In order to buy time, they began tossing out emergency relief "protections" for the economy. Such as preventing mortgage defaults which would send their CDO's tumbling. This protection ends on June 30th, 2021.
|
||||
|
||||
And guess what? Many people are still at risk of being delinquent. [This article](https://therealdeal.com/issues_articles/defusing-the-forbearance-time-bomb/) was posted just yesterday. The moment these protection plans lift, we can see a surge in foreclosures as delinquent payments have accumulated over the past year.
|
||||
|
||||
When everyone, including small business owners who were attacked with predatory loans, begin to default from these emergency plans expiring, it can lead to the CDO's themselves collapsing. Which is exactly what triggered the 2008 recession.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/b68fsf5aii571.png?width=945&format=png&auto=webp&s=daa8c725185480d988802023a27291ee782b5c5f)
|
||||
|
||||
https://www.housingwire.com/articles/mortgage-forbearance-drops-as-expiration-date-nears/
|
||||
|
||||
2.4 SLR Requirement Exemption - Why The Reverse Repo Is Blowing Up
|
||||
|
||||
Another big issue exposed from COVID is when SLR requirements were leaned during the pandemic. They had to pass a quick measure to protect the banks from defaulting in April of 2020.
|
||||
|
||||
> In a brief announcement, the Fed said it would allow a change to the supplementary leverage ratio to expire March 31. The initial move, announced April 1, 2020, allowed banks to exclude Treasurys and deposits with Fed banks from the calculation of the leverage ratio. - [Source](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/03/19/the-fed-will-not-extend-a-pandemic-crisis-rule-that-had-allowed-banks-to-relax-capital-levels.html)
|
||||
|
||||
What can you take from the above?
|
||||
|
||||
SLR is based on the banks deposits with the Fed itself. It is the treasuries and deposits that the banks have on the Fed's balance sheet. Banks have an 'account block' on the Fed's balance sheet that holds treasuries and deposits. The SLR pandemic rule allowed them to neglect these treasuries and deposits from their SLR calculation, and it boosted their SLR value, allowing them to survive defaults.
|
||||
|
||||
This is a big, big, BIG sign that the banks are way overleveraged by borrowing tons of money just like in 2008.
|
||||
|
||||
The SLR is the "Supplementary Leverage Ratio" and they enacted quick to allow it so banks wouldn't fail under mass leverage for failing to maintain enough equity.
|
||||
|
||||
> The supplementary leverage ratio is the US implementation of the Basel III Tier 1 leverage ratio, with which banks calculate the amount of common equity capital they must hold relative to their total leverage exposure. Large US banks must hold 3%. Top-tier bank holding companies must also hold an extra 2% buffer, for a total of 5%. The SLR, which does not distinguish between assets based on risk, is conceived as a backstop to risk-weighted capital requirements. - [Source](https://www.risk.net/definition/supplementary-leverage-ratio-slr)
|
||||
|
||||
[Here is an exposure of their SLR](https://www.fool.com/investing/2020/07/26/which-of-the-large-us-banks-is-most-leveraged.aspx) from earlier this year. The key is to have high SLR, above 5%, as a top-tier bank:
|
||||
|
||||
| Bank | Supplementary Leverage Ratio (SLR) |
|
||||
| --- | --- |
|
||||
| JP Morgan Chase | 6.8% |
|
||||
| Bank Of America | 7% |
|
||||
| Citigroup | 6.7% |
|
||||
| Goldman Sachs | 6.7% |
|
||||
| Morgan Stanley | 7.3% |
|
||||
| Bank of New York Mellon | 8.2% |
|
||||
| State Street | 8.3% |
|
||||
|
||||
The SLR protection ended on March 31, 2021. Guess what started to happen just after?
|
||||
|
||||
The reverse repo market started to explode. This is VERY unusual behavior because it is not at a quarter-end where quarter-ends have significant strain on the economy. The build-up over time implies that there is significant strain on the market AS OF ENTERING Q2 (April 1st - June 30th).
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/ijp4wkxdii571.png?width=1455&format=png&auto=webp&s=46f67d7efcc98ee475ba27fa41850fbf5d894064)
|
||||
|
||||
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/RRPONTSYD
|
||||
|
||||
Speculation: SLR IS DEPENDENT ON THEIR DEPOSITS WITH THE FED ITSELF. THEY NEED TO EXTRACT TREASURIES OVER NIGHT TO KEEP THEM OFF THE FED'S BALANCE SHEETS TO PREVENT THEMSELVES FROM FAILING SLR REQUIREMENTS AND DEFAULTING DUE TO MASS OVERLEVERAGE. EACH BANK HAS AN ACCOUNT ON THE FED'S BALANCE SHEET, WHICH IS WHAT SLR IS CALCULATED AGAINST. THIS IS WHY IT IS EXPLODING. THEY ARE ALL STRUGGLING TO MEET SLR REQUIREMENTS.
|
||||
|
||||
2.5 DTC, ICC, OCC Wind-Down and Auction Plans; Preparing For More Consolidation Of Power
|
||||
|
||||
We've seen some interesting rules from the DTC, ICC, and OCC. For the longest time we thought this was all surrounding GameStop. Guess what. They aren't all about GameStop. Some of them are, but not all of them.
|
||||
|
||||
They are furiously passing these rules because the COVID can-kick can't last forever. The Fed is dealing with the potential of runaway inflation from COVID stimulus and they can't allow the overleveraged banks to can-kick any more. They need to resolve this as soon as possible. June 30th could be the deadline because of the potential for CDO's to begin collapsing.
|
||||
|
||||
Let's revisit a few of these rules. The most important ones, in my opinion, because they shed light on the bullshit they're trying to do once again: Scoop up competitors at the cheap, and protect themselves from defaulting as well.
|
||||
|
||||
- DTC-004: Wind-down and auction plan. - [Link](https://www.sec.gov/rules/sro/dtc/2021/34-91429.pdf)
|
||||
|
||||
- ICC-005: Wind-down and auction plan. - [Link](https://www.sec.gov/rules/sro/icc/2021/34-91806.pdf)
|
||||
|
||||
- OCC-004: Auction plan. Allows third parties to join in. - [Link](https://www.sec.gov/rules/sro/occ/2021/34-91935.pdf)
|
||||
|
||||
- OCC-003: Shielding plan. Protects the OCC. - [Link](https://www.sec.gov/rules/sro/occ/2021/34-92038.pdf)
|
||||
|
||||
Each of these plans, in brief summary, allows each branch of the market to protect themselves in the event of major defaults of members. They also allow members to scoop up assets of defaulting members.
|
||||
|
||||
What was that? Scooping up assets? In other words it is more concentration of power. Less competition.
|
||||
|
||||
I would not be surprised if many small and large Banks, Hedge Funds, and Financial Institutions evaporate and get consumed after this crash and we're left with just a select few massive entities. That is, after all, exactly what they're planning for.
|
||||
|
||||
They could not allow the COVID crash to pop their massive speculative derivative bubble so soon. It came too sudden for them to not all collapse instead of just a few of them. It would have obliterated the entire economy even more so than it will once this bomb is finally let off. They needed more time to prepare so that they could feast when it all comes crashing down.
|
||||
|
||||
2.6 Signs Of Collapse Coming - ICC-014 - Incentives For Credit Default Swaps
|
||||
|
||||
A comment on this subreddit made me revisit a rule passed by the ICC. It flew under the radar and is another sign for a crash coming.
|
||||
|
||||
This is [ICC-014](https://www.sec.gov/rules/sro/icc/2021/34-91922.pdf). Passed and effective as of June 1st, 2021.
|
||||
|
||||
Seems boring at first. Right? That's why it flew under the radar?
|
||||
|
||||
But now that you know the causes of the 2008 market crash and how toxic CDO's were packaged together, and then CDS's were used to bet against those CDO's, check out what ICC-014 is doing as of June 1st.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/phrxcouvii571.png?width=731&format=png&auto=webp&s=469560cf06458b51b1b5439d84062e9f6e04bda4)
|
||||
|
||||
ICC-014 Proposed Discounts On Credit Default Index Swaptions
|
||||
|
||||
They are providing incentive programs to purchase Credit Default Swap Indexes. These are like standard CDS's, but packaged together like an index. Think of it like an index fund.
|
||||
|
||||
This is allowing them to bet against a wide range of CDO's or other entities at a cheaper rate. Buyers can now bet against a wide range of failures in the market. They are allowing upwards of 25% discounts.
|
||||
|
||||
There's many more indicators that are pointing to a market collapse. But I will leave that to you to investigate more. Here is quite a scary compilation of charts relating the current market trends to the crashes of Black Monday, The Internet Bubble, The 2008 Housing Market Crash, and Today.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/y4reiv86hi571.jpg?width=550&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=8845b7b90adf28409772483c6eeeef1763bbaaaf)
|
||||
|
||||
Summary of Recent Warnings Re Intermediate Trend In Equities
|
||||
|
||||
3\. The Failure Of The 1% - How GameStop Can Deal A Fatal Blow To Wealth Inequality
|
||||
|
||||
3.1 GameStop Was Never Going To Cause The Market Crash
|
||||
|
||||
GameStop was meant to die off. The rich bet against it many folds over, and it was on the brink of Bankruptcy before many conditions led it to where it is today.
|
||||
|
||||
It was never going to cause the market crash. And it never will cause the crash. The short squeeze is a result of high abuse of the derivatives market over the past decade, where Wall Street's abuse of this market has primed the economy for another market crash on their own.
|
||||
|
||||
We can see this because when COVID hit, GameStop was a non-issue in the market. The CDO market around CMBS was about to collapse on its own because of the instantaneous recession which left mortgage owners delinquent.
|
||||
|
||||
If anyone, be it the media, the US Government, or others, try to blame this crash on GameStop or anything other than the Banks and Wall Street, they are WRONG.
|
||||
|
||||
3.2 The Rich Are Trying To Kill GameStop. They Are Terrified
|
||||
|
||||
In January, the SI% was reported to be 140%. But it is very likely that it was underreported at that time. Maybe it was 200% back then. 400%. 800%. Who knows. From the above you can hopefully gather that Wall Street takes on massive risks all the time, they do not care as long as it churns them short-term profits. There is loads of evidence pointing to shorts never covering by hiding their SI% through malicious options practices, and manipulating the price every step of the way.
|
||||
|
||||
The conditions that led GameStop to where it is today is a miracle in itself, and the support of retail traders has led to expose a fatal mistake of the rich. Because a short position has infinite loss potential. There is SO much money in the world, especially in the derivatives market.
|
||||
|
||||
This should scream to you that any price target that you think is low, could very well be extremely low in YOUR perspective. You might just be accustomed to thinking "$X price floor is too much money. There's no way it can hit that". I used to think that too, until I dove deep into this bullshit.
|
||||
|
||||
The market crashing no longer was a matter of simply scooping up defaulters, their assets, and consolidating power. The rich now have to worry about the potential of infinite losses from GameStop and possibly other meme stocks with high price floor targets some retail have.
|
||||
|
||||
It's not a fight against Melvin / Citadel / Point72. It's a battle against the entire financial world. There is even speculation from multiple people that the Fed is even being complicit right now in helping suppress GameStop. Their whole game is at risk here.
|
||||
|
||||
Don't you think they'd fight tooth-and-nail to suppress this and try to get everyone to sell?
|
||||
|
||||
That they'd pull every trick in the book to make you think that they've covered?
|
||||
|
||||
The amount of money they could lose is unfathomable.
|
||||
|
||||
With the collapsing SI%, it is mathematically impossible for the squeeze to have happened - its mathematically impossible for them to have covered. [/u/atobitt](https://www.reddit.com/u/atobitt/) also discusses this in [House of Cards Part 2](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nlwaxv/house_of_cards_part_2/).
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/6hge0pxfhi571.png?width=871&format=png&auto=webp&s=aab736cc279cc727524d2cf96384ea3e33109250)
|
||||
|
||||
https://www.thebharatexpressnews.com/short-squeeze-could-save-gamestop-investors-a-third-time/
|
||||
|
||||
And in regards to all the other rules that look good for the MOASS - I see them in a negative light.
|
||||
|
||||
They are passing NSCC-002/801, DTC-005, and others, in order to prevent a GameStop situation from ever occurring again.
|
||||
|
||||
They realized how much power retail could have from piling into a short squeeze play. These new rules will snap new emerging short squeezes instantly if the conditions of a short squeeze ever occur again. There will never be a GameStop situation after this.
|
||||
|
||||
It's their game after all. They've been abusing the derivative market game for decades and GameStop is a huge threat. It was supposed to be, "crash the economy and run with the money". Not "crash the economy and pay up to retail". But GameStop was a flaw exposed by their greed, the COVID crash, and the quick turn-around of the company to take it away from the brink of bankruptcy.
|
||||
|
||||
The rich are now at risk of losing that money and insane amounts of cash that they've accumulated over the years from causing the Internet Bubble Crash of 2000, and the Housing Market Crash of 2008.
|
||||
|
||||
So, yeah, I'm going to be fucking greedy.
|
@ -0,0 +1,108 @@
|
||||
Beware of Passive Investing (Index Funds and ETFs) Post-MOASS - Growing Wrinkles with Michael Burry, weekend of June 11th 2021
|
||||
==============================================================================================================================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/Pop-Tart_Rabies_Monk](https://www.reddit.com/user/Pop-Tart_Rabies_Monk/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/ny9rxv/beware_of_passive_investing_index_funds_and_etfs/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
[DD 👨🔬](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22DD%20%F0%9F%91%A8%E2%80%8D%F0%9F%94%AC%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||
APES. What a week it has been. We saw some gains. We had them taken away. [We felt woozy.](https://mobile.twitter.com/TheRoaringKitty/status/1403060736889344004) But we HODLd. And we dealt with some serious uncertainty with the shareholder meeting on Wednesday, and the flurry of new info from GameStop. I don't know about you, but it felt pretty shilly in here. Give the shills credit - they tried sooo hard! But we apes are strong together.
|
||||
|
||||
Many of you were kind enough to read [my post on Michael Burry last weekend](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nsmbnk/a_look_back_at_what_michael_burry_knew/) and offer your thoughts, your updoots, and your awards. I had a lot of fun writing it, and I was overwhelmed with the response it received. So why don't we make it a regular thing? I will try to post it on Friday evenings or Saturdays as I am able. I can't promise it will be every weekend, but I know those times have a reputation for being rather... meme-filled on Superstonk 😁 (not that I don't enjoy the weekend shitpost, fluff, and meme frenzy! Last weekend was great with all the Melissa Lee memes, and in 20 or 30 years when I look back fondly on this saga, I will 100% remember the Melissa Lee weekend. "Naked shorts, yeah" 😳), and I have seen many apes calling for more weekend DD warriors to fill the void. I will step in as much as I am able, and also try to offer something a little different to the community.
|
||||
|
||||
I'm not exactly a quant or a technical analysis guy. Other than detecting a basic bull flag on the stock chart, I have absolutely 0 predictive abilities for the price action of GME during the week. But what I do have is the ability to understand complex ideas, and to translate them into apespeak. So I thought it would be a worthwhile project to spend some time going through different things that Michael Burry has written, said, and done. I know I can certainly learn a lot from it, and hopefully you can too. Besides, the way I see it, when we have our tendies we will need to have all the right moves in order to bring about change and to be better rich people than the ones we are betting against. So what better time to learn all these things than right now, while we are HODLing and meme-ing and vibing and waiting for the rocket engines to come online?
|
||||
|
||||
This week, I have ETFs, Index funds, and passive investing on the mind. At the beginning of The Big Short, it was said that Michael Burry and the others did something nobody else did leading up to 2008 - they looked. Michael Burry has warned of another bubble forming again, similar and yet different from last time. So let's try and be like Burry this time around. Let's be among The Ones That Looked. So grab your weekend beverage of choice, and let's do some looking, shall we?
|
||||
|
||||
Passive Investing
|
||||
|
||||
We begin this week, just as we did last week, with a tweet by Burry.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/urkvn2b0lu471.jpg?width=1100&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=b3070056e7884a100e9bcbb7ffb05ef1999c379c)
|
||||
|
||||
February 21st Tweet
|
||||
|
||||
There's a lot going on in this one. Look at it as long as you need to. Took me a while too.
|
||||
|
||||
So this graph tracks the price of the S&P 500. And (surprise!) it has a direct relationship with the collective amount of margin debt (note that the units for margin debt are reversed on the left because... well... it's *debt*).
|
||||
|
||||
I looked up the version of this chart that has been updated as of April 2021. Here is the non-inversed version, so you can see just how close the correlation is. Over 24 years!
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/319eyr6olu471.png?width=1379&format=png&auto=webp&s=d222cf2abf998786a7bdf2da33f352c55628eae2)
|
||||
|
||||
S&P 500 vs Margin Debt
|
||||
|
||||
Now, at first glance this set off a couple of bells in my mind. First was an [interview I heard with Steve Eisman](https://youtu.be/NJodqhzqPKQ) (the real-life Mark Baum from The Big Short - the part in question starts around 13:00). He said that, leading up to 2008, the biggest of the idiots "mistook leverage for genius." Leverage, by the way, = margin debt. Is it concerning to you that the S&P 500, which is one of the key indices of the stock market, only seems to go up on the strength of margin debt? Doesn't seem like the best foundation for financial growth, IDK. And margin debt is spiking like crazy ever since the end of 2020, as the chart shows (sidenote: what situation do we know of that has seen big players in Wall Street taking on tons and tons of margin debt? And I can't remember, does that situation seem to have an inverse relationship with the S&P 500? 🤔)
|
||||
|
||||
At this point I should mention that Index Funds and ETFs (Exchange-Traded Funds) are both funds that track a sector or a large sampling of the entire market. The key difference between the two is that Index Funds cannot be traded during the day - you can only get into an index fund with an up front investment, usually $2000 or $3000. ETFs on the other hand, track the exact same things that Index Funds do, except ETFs can be traded during the day just like shares of a company. So for example the S&P 500 is an Index Fund. SPY is an ETF (some people have called it the granddaddy of all ETFs) that tracks the S&P 500 Index.
|
||||
|
||||
ETFs and Index Funds have a pretty special relationship with GME and market manipulation in general. I give a TON of credit to [u/ahh_soy](https://www.reddit.com/u/ahh_soy/), who [in this post](https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/comments/ljwo3v/serious_researchers_needed_now_i_think_i_know/) back in the doldrums of February discovered that Kenny & company were using ETFs that contained GME to hide their short interest in GME. They essentially paid their credit card bill with another credit card bill (hellooooo, margin debt!), to bring the short interest down and to make it look like they had covered during the craziness of January. There are other examples too. The Russell 2000 has been shorted just to affect the price of GME in recent months as well. Seems like a super inefficient way of going about it Kenny, but whatever. Anyways, the point is that ETFs are a favorite tool for the kind of people that we are betting against.
|
||||
|
||||
Michael Burry's tweet above paints a very dark picture. And ETFs are at the center of it. In doing a little research on the subject, [I discovered that Michael Burry has compared Index Funds and ETFs to the CDOs](https://money.usnews.com/investing/funds/articles/do-index-funds-etfs-quietly-pose-a-systemic-risk-michael-burry-thinks-so) that caused the 2008 collapse. If you don't know what a CDO is, I could try and explain it to you. Or I could link to a clip of Jared Vennet explaining it in The Big Short.
|
||||
|
||||
[Oh what the heck, I'll just do both.](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xbiDrzTd8fE)
|
||||
|
||||
It's complicated, but basically CDOs are a type of hybrid security which is backed by parts of other securities (usually loans of some sort, especially mortgages). It is a convenient way for the big banks and their lackeys to refinance mortgages and to create securities based off of subprime loans that didn't make it into the big Mortgage-Backed Securities. Then they sell those new hybrid securities to make even more money off of it. Is it their problem if what they are selling is over 50% hot garbage?! Nope!
|
||||
|
||||
An Index fund or an ETF is similar in the sense that you are buying or investing a security with an incredibly diverse list of holdings, some of them very good and some of them bad. For example, if you wanted to invest in the airline industry but don't want to get into picking companies for fear that one of the two or 3 you pick go bankrupt, you could just buy an ETF based off the airline industry. You might buy one ETF that has shares of multiple airlines and aircraft manufacturers, some of which are exceptional and some of which are not (smh, still can't believe what Boeing did with the 737 MAX). But the idea is that through diversification you overcome any potential risks.
|
||||
|
||||
And I can understand why people would think this way! I personally know multiple people who ONLY INVEST in ETFs and Index funds (i.e. they only invest passively) because they think it is safer. I can hear the voice of one of them in my head now as I type this: "the S&P 500 grows by 6-8% like clockwork every single year. It is THE safest way to invest." But even with diversification you still have hundreds of billions of dollars invested in a security that is in large part composed of smaller market-cap, lower volume-traded stocks. Now, I grant you, there are nuanced differences between passive investing and CDOs that I don't fully understand. But the basic principle is the same, the market is betting unimaginable sums of money on securities with significant "subprime" holdings. It is the same problem as with CDOs, except that now we have no excuse for not knowing better.
|
||||
|
||||
I might even go so far as to say that the bull run we are seeing on many ETFs and Index funds is a mirage. CNBC looks at the price of the S&P 500 these days and thinks "wow, we sure recovered from the pandemic quick!" But it isn't that simple. Michael Burry compares passive investing to a theater that keeps getting more and more crowded, but the exit stays the same - just one little door. If the show stinks, or worse if their is a fire, it will be deadly. Essentially the money is "trapped" in the market. And when the flow of money reverses from in to out eventually, there isn't enough liquidity to withstand it. It will create the mother of all bottlenecks (MOABN? Meh. I'll keep thinking). People will be literally trampled to death on their way to the exits. Like, hypothetically, if a global pandemic were to come along and weaken the value of like the bottom 2/3rds of every stock included in these index funds and ETFs.
|
||||
|
||||
"But Poptart," you might say, "how could the pandemic be the final straw if the pandemic is already over? The first chart you posted even puts an end-date to the recession at earlier this year. What gives?"
|
||||
|
||||
Well, dear ape, let me put it to you this way. Look at the chart of the S&P 500 again here.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/ctv95wgqqu471.png?width=1549&format=png&auto=webp&s=19461c245c1989cb8654e5ed872d664e36213eec)
|
||||
|
||||
Ruh roh
|
||||
|
||||
See how right after the Covid dip, the price starts to take a parabolic turn north? Does that look natural to you? Can you think of anything natural in the economy that would have happened since then to bring about that growth? Or does it seem more likely to you that it is just the result of quantitative easing, inflation, and stimulus checks trapped in the market? (sidenote: I am NOT placing the blame for this on either of the parties that introduced stimulus checks into the economy, nor am I placing blame on people like you and me who invested them into the market. I am just saying that it is delaying the inevitable.) Does that look like a natural recovery, or does it look like the market was given a shot of a steroid and now it feels great even though it is dying? (dark, I know... sorry)
|
||||
|
||||
Price Discovery
|
||||
|
||||
The other problem that Burry has with Index funds and ETFs is that they make it impossible for "price discovery to occur. Price Discovery is the process of the market weeding out businesses that don't perform well and that deserve to go bankrupt, and also conversely the process of rewarding companies that do well. It is essentially the idea that a company's performance should have a direct relationship with its stock price. This is really just a free market functioning as it should.
|
||||
|
||||
ETFs and Index funds hurt price discovery in the market because the businesses in the fund move not according to what the market dictates, but according to how the overall fund is moving. Don't believe me? Here, take a look at a few holdings of the S&P 500. Represented here are technology, energy, manufacturing, airline, and retail. But do they move together? You bet they do.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/515d36poru471.png?width=994&format=png&auto=webp&s=fd009526e6a8b00f01e274d6223bcc707c70b32d)
|
||||
|
||||
Technology
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/00v3e4rsru471.png?width=990&format=png&auto=webp&s=34395dedf841a62efafad015d607a662679f6e8d)
|
||||
|
||||
Energy
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/alnhlbuxru471.png?width=1025&format=png&auto=webp&s=f89fd9dc4927e3bd944155200594321b87e691c1)
|
||||
|
||||
Airline
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/zsibrimvru471.png?width=1020&format=png&auto=webp&s=4adb3fcc71341df58db32d90e5309c4cb94ad69b)
|
||||
|
||||
Manufacturing
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/nswxamgzru471.png?width=1073&format=png&auto=webp&s=5e2ca05a6da8dfb73ed636101a8a4b6bb192d850)
|
||||
|
||||
Retail
|
||||
|
||||
Notice how every time there is a sharp divergence on one of the stocks, it immediately corrects back to the general path of the fund?
|
||||
|
||||
When a market is drunk on Index funds and ETFs, the price discovery is taken out of the hands of individual investors and put into the hands of the people with the cushy job in downtown Manhattan who decide which stocks will go into the fund. In other words, the price discovery is left to the kinds of people like the CDO managers and the stuff-shirt working for Standard & Poors in The Big Short. You know, the kind of people who can easily be bribed to make certain decisions. The kind of people who will pick stocks not so much based on which ones are more deserving, but based on how much money they will get paid. Does that scare you? It sure does me.
|
||||
|
||||
One final note on price discovery before we go... what Citadel and friends tried to do to GME, just as they did to Toys R Us, and SEARS, and many others before GME, is the enemy of price discovery just as much as ETFs and Index funds are. In fact if you squint when you look at the two problems, it is just one problem - rich people thinking they should be the ones to determine which companies survive; rich people thinking they know better than the free market; rich people not caring who they screw up in order to make money. Do we live in a free market or don't we? Because right now it doesn't feel like it.
|
||||
|
||||
My main takeaways after this exercise:
|
||||
|
||||
1. What I just said about price discovery and GME can't be repeated enough. And THIS is why the GME situation is so terrifying for them. GME doesn't just represent them losing out on the bankruptcy jackpot with one company. The more people learn about what is going on with GME and especially what is going here on Superstonk, the more democratized the market becomes. The more people will learn that-- *looks at hands* -- WE have the power. This is why CNBC tries to ignore us except to nervous laugh at us when GME is up big. They know that we aren't just winning this game - we are establishing a whole new paradigm, and the powers that be don't want to let the cat out of the bag. They are in damage-control mode. I really believe that future generations will read about GameStop in their high school economics textbooks. And THAT is a very happy thought, isn't it apes?
|
||||
|
||||
2. I didn't have time to go over this in the main body but thought it was important to address: I do not think Burry is criticizing us directly when he says "#stonksgoup hype" adds to the problem, and the reason for this is simple: I cannot believe that Burry would think a bunch of people deciding they like the stock, then buying and holding it is the problem. It has to be much more intelligent and nuanced than that, coming from Burry. I think he is criticizing the people who push stocks or crypto just for the laughs but don't really believe they have any value (I am thinking especially of proponents of a certain canine-inspired crypto here). What we are talking about here with GME (and I also include our movie theater friends in this) is that we are trying to stand up for price discovery. We are calling bull💩 on the game that market manipulators are playing. If anything, we are taking a stand against the very problem that Burry is identifying.
|
||||
|
||||
3. BUY. HODL. ~~VOTE.~~ 😅
|
||||
|
||||
TLDR: Get ready because the market is gonna need our tendies. And when the time comes, invest in STOCKS. Not Funds or ETFs.
|
||||
|
||||
Not financial advice. I literally can't tell my own rear end from a coconut FYI.
|
@ -0,0 +1,99 @@
|
||||
I successfully forecasted GME closing prices for the last two weeks based on your DD (proof included). Can therefore prove FTD and SI DD and that Hediges haven't started covering big time. Want me to share the model?
|
||||
========================================================================================================================================================================================================================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/RocketApes](https://www.reddit.com/user/RocketApes/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/noih5m/i_successfully_forecasted_gme_closing_prices_for/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
[Education 👨🏫 | Data 🔢](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22Education%20%F0%9F%91%A8%E2%80%8D%F0%9F%8F%AB%20%7C%20Data%20%F0%9F%94%A2%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||
*edit2: Fixed broken links.*
|
||||
|
||||
*edit1: Formatting. Proof for successful predictions now better visible.*
|
||||
|
||||
Hi to all the apes out there,
|
||||
|
||||
I do data stuff for a living and since I basically spend my work hours staring at green and red GME dildos since January I thought:
|
||||
|
||||
*"Why not try to predict GME movement for today?"*
|
||||
|
||||
So I did. And it worked, I predicted the general movement of the last two weeks including last weeks crazy price action pretty accurately. That is why I am accused of witchcraft in the German Sub where I published my forecasts ;)
|
||||
|
||||
Don't believe me? Neither would I. But I will deliver proof.
|
||||
|
||||
*Before I start: I am a data scientist, but not financial expert or advisor. Don't base investments on anything you see here, a model can always fail. If you really want, I can be your wifes boyfriend, though.*
|
||||
|
||||
That is how it looks:
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/3ce2pe9p6b271.png?width=913&format=png&auto=webp&s=562b5bccbd0ed527e0f87aebab74f61eccd747fa)
|
||||
|
||||
GME price vs. my forecast
|
||||
|
||||
Want proof? Alright, the forecasts where announced in the German *Unter* [r/spielstopp](https://www.reddit.com/r/spielstopp/) in the following posts or comments (model was improved over time, old descriptions are not up to date):
|
||||
|
||||
| Date | Forecast | Link / Proof |
|
||||
| --- | --- | --- |
|
||||
| 2020-05-17 | 5 to 7.5% | [Here](https://www.reddit.com/r/Spielstopp/comments/ne9vhn/neues_kursmodell_zur_vorhersage_f%C3%BCr_euch_zum/) |
|
||||
| 2020-05-18 | -6 to -9% | [Here](https://www.reddit.com/r/Spielstopp/comments/nf4mgo/kursmodell_20_und_offenlegung_von_daten_und_modell/) |
|
||||
| 2020-05-19 | -5 to -8% | [Here](https://www.reddit.com/r/Spielstopp/comments/nfz5x7/ich_habe_euch_entt%C3%A4uscht_gebt_mir_noch_ne_chance/) |
|
||||
| 2020-05-20 | 0 to 2.5% (Model 1) | [Here](https://www.reddit.com/r/Spielstopp/comments/ngoyj4/t%C3%A4glicher_spielstopp_sammelfaden_20052021/gysw3ug?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3) |
|
||||
| 2020-05-21 | 2.5 to 5% (Model 2) | [Here](https://www.reddit.com/r/Spielstopp/comments/nhihrz/t%C3%A4glicher_spielstopp_sammelfaden_21052021/gyx9xad?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3) |
|
||||
| 2020-05-24 to 2020-05-28 (whole week because I was on vacation) | Longterm forecast (NOT up to date) | [Here](https://www.reddit.com/r/Spielstopp/comments/ngyrai/langfristige_kursvorhersage_von_spielstopp/) |
|
||||
|
||||
*Alright, what did I do? (You can skip this part if you like)*
|
||||
|
||||
I developed a relatively simple linear regression model and optimized it with a little Monte-Carlo-Simulation to improve the forecast. R² is 0.62, overfitting was hopefully countered by stepwise reduction of variables.
|
||||
|
||||
I am sure there are smart apes out there who could improve the model by adding non-linear regression terms, time series analysis and so on, but I had no time for that yet ;) If I chose to share my model, I would be happy to assist with improvements.
|
||||
|
||||
*Why should I care? I am just an ape who buy and holds? (DONT skip this part!)*
|
||||
|
||||
I will tell you why! Because I can proof some DDs floating around here right.And, most importantly, the fact that GME price movements especially in this week were predictable, shows that we are still in the "Hedgie manipulated area", no covering of shorts or crazy staff has yet happened!
|
||||
|
||||
What variables did I include in my model (bold ones are of greater significance)?
|
||||
|
||||
1. Volume und Price movements of afterhours previous day and first hour of the premarket (prediction for the day is therefore available at 5am EST or 10am my time ;))
|
||||
|
||||
2. FTD cycle. Hell yeah, this one IS important, we saw that last week. Hank and all the other's theories seem to be right
|
||||
|
||||
3. Day of week (NOT that important, also no special movements on fridays (options) or tuesday (option hedging) to be seen)
|
||||
|
||||
4. SPY movement (previous day)
|
||||
|
||||
5. Price movement of 10Y US treasuries
|
||||
|
||||
6. Price movement B...Coin (previous day)
|
||||
|
||||
7. Price movement of a certain Cinema (previous day). Not that important as a predictor but of course still correlated to GME!
|
||||
|
||||
8. Change in max pain price (not that important either)
|
||||
|
||||
9. Did RC tweet (previous day)? For the lulz, also not that important
|
||||
|
||||
10. RSI (Relative strength index) at the end of previous day
|
||||
|
||||
11. 3 month, 4 week, 2 week and 1 week beta. VERY relevant and, to be clear, betas are POSITIVE most of the time
|
||||
|
||||
12. SI settlement dates as described in [this](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nc1lny/ive_estimated_the_current_si_based_on_the_si/) DD are extremely relevant
|
||||
|
||||
(So why did the price go up this week? in simple terms: FTD+21 plus SI settlement dates plus a little FOMO)
|
||||
|
||||
You can find more explanation at my github: <https://github.com/rocketapes123/GMEmodel> or in a little pastebin: <https://controlc.com/9e895bdb>
|
||||
|
||||
I set the project to private temporarily, though. Why? Read on.
|
||||
|
||||
*Ok, now to the most important question? Should I publish the model and / or forecasts? To be clear, I don't want to farm karma, I am not going to monetize, stream, ask for funding or similar bullshit. I just want to share my findings.*
|
||||
|
||||
Whats stops me from doing it? What are my doubts?
|
||||
|
||||
1. Hedgies can read this, too. My model shows that DD here is on spot. (Counter argument: They not it anyways)
|
||||
|
||||
2. A model is a model. It can be wrong, there can be new factors, fuckery or FOMO it can not predict. If people rely on it too much, a wrong prediction could spread doubt.
|
||||
|
||||
3. Danger of "self-fulfilling prophecy": If I, lets say, predict that price is going to drop 5% tomorrow, some people may sell their shares and accelerate a decline
|
||||
|
||||
What do you say? Mods and wrinkly apes, I need your input:
|
||||
|
||||
[u/rensole](https://www.reddit.com/u/rensole/)**,** [u/redchessqueen99](https://www.reddit.com/u/redchessqueen99/)**,** [u/dlauer](https://www.reddit.com/u/dlauer/)**,** [u/atobitt](https://www.reddit.com/u/atobitt/)
|
@ -0,0 +1,60 @@
|
||||
The price of GME since February is completely predictable: "Kicking the can down the road" mathematically deciphered. See what determines GMEs price.
|
||||
=====================================================================================================================================================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/RocketApes](https://www.reddit.com/user/RocketApes/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/np9a0k/the_price_of_gme_since_february_is_completely/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
[DD 👨🔬](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22DD%20%F0%9F%91%A8%E2%80%8D%F0%9F%94%AC%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||
*edit3: Sent the sub with my forecasts to* [/u/rensole](https://www.reddit.com/u/rensole/) *and* [*u/h4nsm0le*](https://www.reddit.com/user/h4nsm0le/)*,* *they will prove it have been my forecasts.*
|
||||
|
||||
*edit2: Here is my base data, go and play with it :)* [*https://ethercalc.net/gt5qilibiv*](https://ethercalc.net/gt5qilibiv)
|
||||
|
||||
*Variable description here:* [*https://controlc.com/9e895bdb*](https://controlc.com/9e895bdb)
|
||||
|
||||
*edit1: i am sad, my last posting was deleted :( Mods can you help me?*
|
||||
|
||||
LAPEies and GAPElemen,
|
||||
|
||||
*I present you the final (?) solution to the GME price riddle since February*. Been leveling down this game and I stand on the shoulder of giants to finally solve it.
|
||||
|
||||
As explained to you in my [*last* posting](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/noih5m/i_successfully_forecasted_gme_closing_prices_for/), I developed a mathematical model to predict GME prive movements which has proven (to my big surprise!) almost completely accurate in the last two weeks (I have witnesses ;)).
|
||||
|
||||
You have convinced me to not share the model or any future predictions with you (and therefore the whole world). Instead I will post it with a different account in an obscure subreddit (either [r/kennysbuttplugs](https://www.reddit.com/r/kennysbuttplugs/) or [r/whenIwasAboyinbulgaria](https://www.reddit.com/r/whenIwasAboyinbulgaria/)**) and show the results to you end of the week with timestamps.**
|
||||
|
||||
Anyways, I figured out that I can give you the driving forces behind GMEs price development without giving away the details to actually make predictions based on it.
|
||||
|
||||
My first and important result is: GME stock price is extremely different from "normal" stock price developments and is totally and utterly manipulated (come on, a small ape with a computer can predict it?)
|
||||
|
||||
With a technique called factor analysis I can extract the strength of each factor in driving GME's price (adds up to 100% naturally):
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/7lef0ay7oh271.png?width=786&format=png&auto=webp&s=0d6218c3a6032228a5fb3f8c8e1a8c83592107a7)
|
||||
|
||||
Influence factors on GME price
|
||||
|
||||
These factors, along with the "unknown" factors, for which my model cannot get an explanation (34%, almost nothing for models like these), can be summed up as follows:
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/xt025ydgoh271.png?width=808&format=png&auto=webp&s=559ed62360ecb79e67f6b8c130fb9e9dd3d1b162)
|
||||
|
||||
The five pillars of GME price making
|
||||
|
||||
1. Technical factors like RSI: These factors contribute little influence to the GME price, although some more influence like Elliott wave factors may be hidden in the unknown factors
|
||||
|
||||
2. SI-Reporting: Based on [this](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nc1lny/ive_estimated_the_current_si_based_on_the_si/) DD by [/u/criand](https://www.reddit.com/u/criand/), Hedgies try to supress the SI interest by covering right before the SI settlement days which can be found [here](https://www.finra.org/filing-reporting/regulatory-filing-systems/short-interest) (basically every 14 days). Afterwards they short the fuck out of GME again.
|
||||
|
||||
3. FTD Cycle: As pointed out by various posters here, every 21 days, FTD are "renewed", the can is kicked further down the road. This fact is INCREDIBLY visible in the data and ALONE accountable for 20% of the GME prive movement. Fun Fact you should know: Last week, SI-Reporting and FTD Cycle (T+21) were on two consecutive days (Tuesday 05/25 and Wednesday 05/26) - this is the main reason the price exploded (plus a little FOMO). Sorry to disappoint you, nothing substantial happened. The price explosion was predicted by my model ([proof](https://www.reddit.com/r/Spielstopp/comments/ngyrai/langfristige_kursvorhersage_von_spielstopp/))
|
||||
|
||||
4. Movement with the market: Less visible then with other stocks, but still significant:Gme moves with the market. On days without special occurances like SI Reporting or T+21, we have a positive beta. Market movement is accountable for 25% on average but for > 50% on normal days
|
||||
|
||||
5. Unknown factors: "Normal" price drivers like Whales, Retail trading, unknown technical factors and - theoretically - shorts covering are included here. 33% influence is very little, most of the GME price movement is completely deterministic aka manipulated.
|
||||
|
||||
As my model cannot predict massive short covering or predict the MOASS, any deviation of the price from my model could show something is brewing. But until now, there are none.
|
||||
|
||||
Shorts have not yet covered, they are just kicking the can down the road. I can prove it mathematically. Apes buy and hold.
|
||||
|
||||
If interested, I can share the model and predictions with any mod or qualified person for review. I would love to get input and improve the model (or have someone smarter than me improve it) and question my motives but understand that it might not be strategically wise to publically share it.
|
||||
|
||||
*That being sad, I am just playing around with numbers and am by no means any advisor for anything (says my wifes boyfriend).*
|
@ -0,0 +1,254 @@
|
||||
GME price development decoded: A final update on GME price prediction
|
||||
=====================================================================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/RocketApes](https://www.reddit.com/user/RocketApes/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/DDintoGME/comments/nxyul2/gme_price_development_decoded_a_final_update_on/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
[𝘜𝘯𝘷𝘦𝘳𝘪𝘧𝘪𝘦𝘥 𝘋𝘋](https://www.reddit.com/r/DDintoGME/search?q=flair_name%3A%22%F0%9D%98%9C%F0%9D%98%AF%F0%9D%98%B7%F0%9D%98%A6%F0%9D%98%B3%F0%9D%98%AA%F0%9D%98%A7%F0%9D%98%AA%F0%9D%98%A6%F0%9D%98%A5%20%F0%9D%98%8B%F0%9D%98%8B%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||
*edit2: You asked for pictures, I give you a picture:*
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/ygzikkivbv471.png?width=864&format=png&auto=webp&s=687ba1a0b09b08d5a6527e6e82248a2ac02ea1e6)
|
||||
|
||||
Variable influence. Bold area is 90% percentile. Variables not crossing the 0-line are significant, influence on GME price change in percent at x-axis. Example: VIXPD (Vix, previous day) has a positive and almost significant influence on GME price
|
||||
|
||||
*edit: Forgot to add, buy and hold. I am not a financial advisor or your mummy (say hello if you meet her!), but daytrading based on any of this stuff could be a very bad idea: Firstly, the model is not ALWAYS correct, secondly if only lasts for a day and who knows what is tomorrow. You could miss stuff like DFV returning or the MOASS. Just buy and hold, I'd say.*
|
||||
|
||||
tl;dr: I developed a very good model for GME price prediction (success rate > 90%) and found out by which factors the GME prices is moved. It is moved by FTD cylce, SI reporting, Beta values and MACD, maybe VIX, Options, Movie Theatres. It is NOT moved by cr*pto, longterm Beta, ETF FTD and the max pain price.
|
||||
|
||||
LAPEies and GAPElemen,
|
||||
|
||||
To complete the trilogy of GME price prediction posts which started [here](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/noih5m/i_successfully_forecasted_gme_closing_prices_for/) and [here](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/np9a0k/the_price_of_gme_since_february_is_completely/), I present the infamous third part: The final problem.
|
||||
|
||||
Didn't watch the first two movies and now getting on everyones nerves by asking what the story is about? Let me help you:
|
||||
|
||||
I developed a linear model to predict the price of GME after the first hour of premarket. I have been really successful with that. And now I improved it even further.
|
||||
|
||||
*Oh, and before you ask: No, I will not make predictions for each and every single day now. I will do something better: I will tell you which data you need to do it yourself and which theories on price influence are true - and which can mathematically be debunked.*
|
||||
|
||||
So, how good is your model, rocketGapes? Oh, glad you asked:
|
||||
|
||||
I could successfully predict the direction of movement in 97% of all cases in the extensive model (incl. FTD data until May) and 91% in the more up to date model until yesterday. The median error was about 3%.
|
||||
|
||||
R squared (where 1 is absolute perfect prediction and anything above roughly 0.4 is really good) is 0.65 for the up to date model and incredible 0.815 for the extensive model. So extremely good.
|
||||
|
||||
- Question for the wrinkle brains: There were only two dates which none of the models could predict right: 2021/04/07 and 2021/04/16. Both should have been really good dates (strong upward movement) but the price moved down instead. *What happened on these dates?*
|
||||
|
||||
I will have a data section at the very bottom of the post where all the ANALysts can get extensive information on the models. The source code is available on my [github](https://github.com/rocketapes123/GMEmodel) and you can download the raw data [here](https://github.com/rocketapes123/GMEmodel/blob/main/LMGME_e.csv).
|
||||
|
||||
Alright, let us dig into the influential factors on GME price (important: These factors add up, they ALL need to be taken into consideration):
|
||||
|
||||
Factors of highest significance and importance
|
||||
|
||||
- FTD-Cycle: Everyone talks about it and everyone is right: on the 21st day, statistically proven the shit hits the fan as hedgies try to kick the can down the road. But there is more:
|
||||
|
||||
- On day 2 and 3 as well as 12 and 13, the price declines quite often. Question for the wrinkle brains: Why could this be the case?
|
||||
|
||||
- SI reporting: as the famous [/u/Criand](https://www.reddit.com/u/Criand/) found out [here](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nc1lny/ive_estimated_the_current_si_based_on_the_si/) and I could now prove, the price spikes up in the days previous to SI reporting days you can find [here](https://www.finra.org/filing-reporting/regulatory-filing-systems/short-interest). More specifically, the price explodes on one or both of the days prior to the SI reporting settlement days twice a month.
|
||||
|
||||
- Movement in after hours and premarket: Not surprisingly, the direction of AH and first hour of PM is a big determinator of closing price
|
||||
|
||||
Factors of high significance and importance
|
||||
|
||||
- Beta values: The beta values (how GME moves with the market) for various time periods (1W, 2W and 4W beta) have a big influence on the price as there seem to be cycles in which GME moves better or worse compared to the market in a predictable way (more wrinkle brains please interpret the numbers I provide below)
|
||||
|
||||
- Previous Day movement of GME: Generally speaking, GME price movement uses to change direction quite often - the previous day price movement tends to inverse
|
||||
|
||||
- First hour premarket volume: Interestingly, the volume of the first hour in PM has a big effect on the closing price: The higher the volume, the lower the closing price. Why? No idea :)
|
||||
|
||||
- Earnings: Ok, I covered only two dated with earnings but the price decline on the after was so significant and unexplicable with other factors that this still shows up here
|
||||
|
||||
- MACD: The value change of the daily MACD histogram (further explanation [here](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/m/macd.asp)) is another good price predictor. It has a positive sign, meaning: MACD moves up -> price tends to move up the next day. MACD moves down -> price tends to move down the next day
|
||||
|
||||
Factors which could very well play a role
|
||||
|
||||
- Change of the Max Pain Price: The change of max pain price (call against put options) on the previous day has a positive correlation with the closing price of today: The price tends to reflect those changes, which only makes sense.
|
||||
|
||||
- A certain theatre chain: The stock which may not be named not only has a big correlation to GME but also the closing prices of the previous day have a small, but interesting connection to today's GME price: It is negative, meaning: A::C moves up -> GME tends to move down the next day. Take it with a grain of salt, though.
|
||||
|
||||
- VIX: Previous day VIX (measure of volatiliy in the market) correlates positively to today's GME closing prices: High VIX -> Better change of GME price rising
|
||||
|
||||
- GME FTD: Failures to deliver of yesterday have a positive correlation to today's price: Many FTD's yesterdays -> Better change of GME price rising
|
||||
|
||||
- RSI: RSI, a measure of whether a stock is over- or underbought, has a positive correlation to GME price
|
||||
|
||||
- Ten year treasury yield: The change of yield of the 10Y treasury bond of the previous day, which is used as a significant indicator of stock market strength, has a negative correlation also to GME prices, so: Higher yield yesterday -> weaker GME price. Take it with a grain of salt though, the mathematical evidence is rather weak
|
||||
|
||||
Factors with little to no influence on GME price
|
||||
|
||||
- Market movement (previous day): Yesterdays market movements almost have no influence on today's GME price
|
||||
|
||||
- First hour movements of SPY and movie theater: Although there is some correlation between GME and movies / SPY, you cannot determine the development of today's price by looking at the first hour price movements of those two
|
||||
|
||||
- Day of week: The day of the week has no real influence on prices. You could believe otherwise with weekly options and stuff, but no.
|
||||
|
||||
- Difference of stock price to max pain price: This surprised me, but the difference of yesterdays stock price to the max pain price does not have an influence on the price (the direction of max pain movement price via options has, though). To me, this means that the theory, that the stock price always moves to the max pain price, is wrong. You might think so, because options are naturally playing around the current price but they dont determine it.
|
||||
|
||||
- ETF FTDs: The failure to delivers of ETFs containing GME DONT have an influence on GME price.
|
||||
|
||||
- B*C: As opposed to some of the theories here, the previous day B*C change does not have an influence on GME price. Maybe you find a relationship if you look at longer or shorter time periods, but I did not find indication that cr*pto currency sell offs lead to GME price spikes or anything.
|
||||
|
||||
- What you know as beta: The longterm Beta which is calculated on weekly or monthly basis over more than a year and was hyped here because it was negative has no influence on GME price, sorry guys. GME generally moves with the market and if it doesn't, this has a reason.
|
||||
|
||||
Alright, this was long, sorry for that. But as a transparent community, I would like to have theories on price movement and influential factors proven. We see many theories around here, not all of them are true. Thanks for many smart apes, we can prove some and debunk others.
|
||||
|
||||
Model details
|
||||
|
||||
You find all the model details here: <https://github.com/rocketapes123/GMEmodel>
|
||||
|
||||
With a linear model, you can model a variable (in this case: GME price change to previous day in percent) as simple equation:
|
||||
|
||||
GME price change = Intercept + Estimate_a * Var_a + Estimate_b * Var_b.....
|
||||
|
||||
I have started with two models:
|
||||
|
||||
Model 1 including FTDs until mid of may:
|
||||
|
||||
```
|
||||
ReturnGME~Sett+Volume1HPM+Return1H+FTD+Weekday+Beta.3M+Beta4W+Beta2W+Beta1W+B...C+MaxPain+RGME_PD+RA*C_PD+ReturnAMPD+TenYCPD+ReturnSPY+RSIPD+SP1H+A*C1H+MACDHISTPD+EarningsPD+VIXPD+mPlastPrice+GMEFTDPD+ETFFTDPD
|
||||
|
||||
```
|
||||
|
||||
Model 2 excluding FTDs until June 11:
|
||||
|
||||
```
|
||||
ReturnGME~Sett+Volume1HPM+Return1H+FTD+Weekday+Beta.3M+Beta4W+Beta2W+Beta1W+B*C+MaxPain+RGME_PD+RA*C_PD+ReturnAMPD+TenYCPD+ReturnSPY+RSIPD+SP1H+A*C1H+MACDHISTPD+EarningsPD+VIXPD+mPlastPrice+GMEFTDPD+ETFFTDPD
|
||||
|
||||
```
|
||||
|
||||
With stepwise elimination of variables, I reduced the model to the relevant variables:
|
||||
|
||||
Model 1 compressed:
|
||||
|
||||
```
|
||||
ReturnGME ~ Sett + Volume1HPM + Return1H + FTD + Beta4W + Beta2W + Beta1W + MaxPain + RGME_PD + ReturnAMPD + A...C1H + MACDHISTPD + EarningsPD + VIXPD + GMEFTDPD
|
||||
|
||||
```
|
||||
|
||||
Model 2 compressed:
|
||||
|
||||
```
|
||||
ReturnGME ~ Sett + Volume1HPM + Return1H + FTD + Beta4W + Beta2W + Beta1W + B*C + RGME_PD + RA...C_PD + ReturnAMPD + TenYCPD + RSIPD + MACDHISTPD + EarningsPD + VIXPD
|
||||
|
||||
```
|
||||
|
||||
Results of the models:
|
||||
|
||||
Model 1 compressed:
|
||||
|
||||
```
|
||||
Call:
|
||||
lm(formula = ReturnGME ~ Sett + Volume1HPM + Return1H + FTD +
|
||||
Beta4W + Beta2W + Beta1W + MaxPain + RGME_PD + ReturnAMPD +
|
||||
A*C1H + MACDHISTPD + EarningsPD + VIXPD + GMEFTDPD, data = data)
|
||||
|
||||
Residuals:
|
||||
Min 1Q Median 3Q Max
|
||||
-13.064 -3.617 0.000 3.296 14.404
|
||||
|
||||
Coefficients:
|
||||
Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)
|
||||
(Intercept) -1.089e+01 1.191e+01 -0.914 0.367437
|
||||
Sett1 3.641e+01 5.779e+00 6.301 4.55e-07 ***
|
||||
Volume1HPM -6.383e-05 3.034e-05 -2.104 0.043350 *
|
||||
Return1H 2.631e+00 4.183e-01 6.290 4.70e-07 ***
|
||||
FTD2 -5.024e+01 1.064e+01 -4.721 4.46e-05 ***
|
||||
FTD3 -4.474e+01 1.114e+01 -4.015 0.000335 ***
|
||||
FTD4 -1.962e+01 8.175e+00 -2.400 0.022407 *
|
||||
FTD5 -1.564e+01 8.444e+00 -1.853 0.073182 .
|
||||
FTD6 -1.196e+01 8.441e+00 -1.417 0.166289
|
||||
FTD7 -9.609e+00 8.527e+00 -1.127 0.268163
|
||||
FTD8 -1.017e+01 8.360e+00 -1.217 0.232590
|
||||
FTD9 -1.074e+01 8.348e+00 -1.287 0.207281
|
||||
FTD10 -2.731e+01 8.155e+00 -3.350 0.002085 **
|
||||
FTD11 -1.871e+01 9.679e+00 -1.933 0.062089 .
|
||||
FTD12 -4.335e+01 1.045e+01 -4.148 0.000231 ***
|
||||
FTD13 -4.216e+01 9.586e+00 -4.398 0.000113 ***
|
||||
FTD14 -1.123e+01 7.802e+00 -1.440 0.159666
|
||||
FTD15 -7.598e+00 8.420e+00 -0.902 0.373609
|
||||
FTD16 -1.371e+01 8.580e+00 -1.598 0.119820
|
||||
FTD17 -1.423e+01 8.278e+00 -1.719 0.095223 .
|
||||
FTD18 -1.588e+01 8.637e+00 -1.838 0.075329 .
|
||||
FTD19 -1.373e+01 8.509e+00 -1.613 0.116579
|
||||
FTD20 -9.808e+00 8.535e+00 -1.149 0.259011
|
||||
FTD21 1.911e+01 9.799e+00 1.950 0.059921 .
|
||||
Beta4W -3.992e-01 1.729e-01 -2.310 0.027517 *
|
||||
Beta2W 5.655e-01 2.330e-01 2.427 0.021019 *
|
||||
Beta1W -3.329e-01 1.616e-01 -2.060 0.047609 *
|
||||
MaxPain 2.792e-01 1.635e-01 1.707 0.097437 .
|
||||
RGME_PD -5.448e-01 1.530e-01 -3.561 0.001181 **
|
||||
ReturnAMPD 1.397e+00 3.667e-01 3.810 0.000595 ***
|
||||
A*C1H -7.257e-01 4.269e-01 -1.700 0.098876 .
|
||||
MACDHISTPD 2.140e+00 6.889e-01 3.107 0.003948 **
|
||||
EarningsPD -2.731e+01 1.160e+01 -2.355 0.024824 *
|
||||
VIXPD 9.884e-01 5.047e-01 1.958 0.058947 .
|
||||
GMEFTDPD 6.550e-05 3.731e-05 1.756 0.088738 .
|
||||
---
|
||||
Signif. codes: 0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
|
||||
|
||||
Residual standard error: 7.413 on 32 degrees of freedom
|
||||
Multiple R-squared: 0.9103, Adjusted R-squared: 0.8149
|
||||
F-statistic: 9.548 on 34 and 32 DF, p-value: 2.596e-09
|
||||
|
||||
```
|
||||
|
||||
Model 2 compressed:
|
||||
|
||||
```
|
||||
Call:
|
||||
lm(formula = ReturnGME ~ Sett + Volume1HPM + Return1H + FTD +
|
||||
Beta4W + Beta2W + Beta1W + B*C + RGME_PD + RA*C_PD + ReturnAMPD +
|
||||
TenYCPD + RSIPD + MACDHISTPD + EarningsPD + VIXPD, data = data)
|
||||
|
||||
Residuals:
|
||||
Min 1Q Median 3Q Max
|
||||
-16.6535 -4.4684 -0.6397 4.4523 25.7623
|
||||
|
||||
Coefficients:
|
||||
Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)
|
||||
(Intercept) -4.074e+01 1.598e+01 -2.549 0.013989 *
|
||||
Sett1 1.565e+01 5.028e+00 3.113 0.003088 **
|
||||
Volume1HPM -8.234e-05 3.577e-05 -2.302 0.025637 *
|
||||
Return1H 2.007e+00 5.069e-01 3.959 0.000243 ***
|
||||
FTD2 -5.185e+00 1.013e+01 -0.512 0.611216
|
||||
FTD3 -1.211e+01 8.966e+00 -1.350 0.183168
|
||||
FTD4 5.329e+00 8.798e+00 0.606 0.547468
|
||||
FTD5 -1.206e+00 8.464e+00 -0.142 0.887296
|
||||
FTD6 1.198e+00 8.737e+00 0.137 0.891454
|
||||
FTD7 8.505e-02 9.220e+00 0.009 0.992677
|
||||
FTD8 1.327e+01 8.470e+00 1.566 0.123737
|
||||
FTD9 7.258e+00 8.522e+00 0.852 0.398582
|
||||
FTD10 -1.385e+01 8.327e+00 -1.663 0.102749
|
||||
FTD11 -1.024e-14 9.909e+00 0.000 1.000000
|
||||
FTD12 -7.953e+00 9.406e+00 -0.845 0.401959
|
||||
FTD13 -5.410e+00 9.009e+00 -0.600 0.550974
|
||||
FTD14 9.777e-15 8.865e+00 0.000 1.000000
|
||||
FTD15 1.063e+01 8.958e+00 1.187 0.240998
|
||||
FTD16 2.623e+00 8.929e+00 0.294 0.770202
|
||||
FTD17 -7.713e+00 8.858e+00 -0.871 0.388130
|
||||
FTD18 -1.733e+00 9.249e+00 -0.187 0.852146
|
||||
FTD19 2.827e+00 8.567e+00 0.330 0.742814
|
||||
FTD20 -1.729e-14 9.230e+00 0.000 1.000000
|
||||
FTD21 1.948e+01 9.232e+00 2.110 0.039948 *
|
||||
Beta4W -1.007e-01 2.195e-01 -0.459 0.648532
|
||||
Beta2W 2.997e-01 2.478e-01 1.210 0.232146
|
||||
Beta1W -1.873e-01 1.625e-01 -1.153 0.254594
|
||||
B*C -1.793e-01 2.701e-01 -0.664 0.509813
|
||||
RGME_PD -1.556e-01 1.817e-01 -0.856 0.395913
|
||||
RA*C_PD -1.865e-01 1.094e-01 -1.705 0.094556 .
|
||||
ReturnAMPD 1.772e+00 4.559e-01 3.887 0.000305 ***
|
||||
TenYCPD -5.988e-01 3.491e-01 -1.715 0.092623 .
|
||||
RSIPD 3.419e-01 1.802e-01 1.897 0.063783 .
|
||||
MACDHISTPD 1.959e+00 8.426e-01 2.325 0.024262 *
|
||||
EarningsPD -1.611e+01 9.099e+00 -1.770 0.082947 .
|
||||
VIXPD 1.049e+00 6.372e-01 1.646 0.106149
|
||||
---
|
||||
Signif. codes: 0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
|
||||
|
||||
Residual standard error: 9.569 on 49 degrees of freedom
|
||||
Multiple R-squared: 0.7932, Adjusted R-squared: 0.6455
|
||||
F-statistic: 5.37 on 35 and 49 DF, p-value: 5.649e-08
|
||||
```
|
@ -0,0 +1,142 @@
|
||||
An update on relationships between stocks - STATISTICS ROCKS! - Brought to you by the SuperstonkQuants 🦍🥼🔬🚀
|
||||
===============================================================================================================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/xpurplexamyx](https://www.reddit.com/user/xpurplexamyx/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nym1ua/an_update_on_relationships_between_stocks/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
[DD 👨🔬](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22DD%20%F0%9F%91%A8%E2%80%8D%F0%9F%94%AC%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||
Edit: Some folks have asked for a TA;DR. It's sorta hard to distill this post down into a mere sentence, but I'll try to channel my smooth brain:
|
||||
|
||||
TA;DR - A few things are going on in this post; the whole thing is worth reading, but distilled down:
|
||||
|
||||
1. A lot of data science to help wrinkled apes who are attempting to correlate things not fall into the pit of mis-correlation of time series data.
|
||||
|
||||
2. A pretty awesome tool for quickly checking correlation of two stocks over a given time period!
|
||||
|
||||
3. A peer-reviewed confirmation of correlation between GME, AMC, BBBY, KOSS, NAKD, NOK, and VIX."Before we were only looking at the graphs and hand wavingly saying "eh, close enough". That is a far cry from showing a correlation." - [u/half_dane](https://www.reddit.com/u/half_dane/)
|
||||
|
||||
Also: CORRELATION != CAUSATION. Nothing in this post attempts to speak to or address the "why".
|
||||
|
||||
Edit: Please also check out [u/orangecatmasterrace](https://www.reddit.com/u/orangecatmasterrace/)'s RRP/GME analysis here, which makes use of the tooling this thread talks about: <https://www.reddit.com/r/DDintoGME/comments/nype4f/is_gmes_price_related_to_the_reverse_repo_rate_in/>
|
||||
|
||||
Preface:
|
||||
|
||||
I ([u/xpurplexamyx](https://www.reddit.com/u/xpurplexamyx/)) am posting this on behalf of one of the [SuperstonkQuants](https://www.superstonkquant.org/) wrinkle brains, [u/braaaaiiinnnsss](https://www.reddit.com/u/braaaaiiinnnsss/), who lurks reddit and as a result does not have sufficient karma to post directly.
|
||||
|
||||
Though they call me out in their post as having contributed, I feel that is an overstatement. Most if not all of the interactions I have with the incredible analysts who have joined the dark basement that is the SuperstonkQuants [go along these lines.](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SmHl7hKlVj4) I am good at pulling data together for them to sink their collective teeth into though, so I do what I can to support their quest to [generate graphs.](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sIlNIVXpIns)
|
||||
|
||||
This all to *provide a disclaimer* that while I will act as a conduit for answers to any questions you may ask in the comments, I probably don't know the answer myself and am learning along with the rest of you. If a mod passes by and fancies approving [u/braaaaiiinnnsss](https://www.reddit.com/u/braaaaiiinnnsss/), that would be appreciated! :)
|
||||
|
||||
---------------
|
||||
|
||||
Hello from SuperstonkQuants (the subreddit's quant group that spawned out of a request for analysis from [u/HomeDepotHank69](https://www.reddit.com/u/HomeDepotHank69/))! I wanted to let you know that there are some seriously amazing things going on there, and we all look forward to sharing them with you!
|
||||
|
||||
I am on the low-level analysis side, and wanted to bring you all up to speed on how to answer questions like: *Is X related to Y?* This is one of the most common types of questions we receive, so that is what I have been focused on. It turns out, this is more complicated to answer than you might think. If you google how to see if two stocks are related, even Yahoo Finance will tell you to run a correlation.Correlations are misleading due to the type of data we are working with.
|
||||
|
||||
For this reason, I wanted to put a post together, so those of you who are answering such questions on your own will have the tools to do so. Statistics answers the question, *"how confident are you in the effect"*? This is a big deal when you are making claims about worldwide illegal activity, so we want to make the tools available to all apes.
|
||||
|
||||
This is not only my work, but that of many other SuperstonkQuants contributors - particularly an extremely stubborn and skeptical analyst who will forever remain in the shadows while demanding *more proof*; [u/orangecatmasterrace](https://www.reddit.com/u/orangecatmasterrace/); [u/xpurplexamyx](https://www.reddit.com/u/xpurplexamyx/); and Hydra - as well as my wife.
|
||||
|
||||
Quick qualifications: I am a professor and teach statistics to undergrads. My wife is a PhD statistician, and has way more stats wrinkles than I do - her input has been invaluable.
|
||||
|
||||
Side note: I am extremely passionate about education. One of the primary ways the hella rich have stayed in power is to make sure the masses are not educated. *The less educated we are, the easier we are to be manipulated*. Education funding is abysmal in the US, I hope this will change in the future. Superstonk is an AMAZING example of what happens when a large group of people become educated. I have learned a metric shed ton about the financial world from this sub, and I hope to return the favor in this post. I am not approved to post, but I am [u/braaaaiiinnnsss](https://www.reddit.com/u/braaaaiiinnnsss/). Feel free to message me if you have any questions! I would also be happy to do some more educational posts in the future if there is interest.
|
||||
|
||||
Now, ON TO STATISTICS...
|
||||
|
||||
Let's look at correlations first (basics to why it doesn't work for us)
|
||||
|
||||
*This in no way means that any correlation findings posted previously are wrong! Instead, I am suggesting we re-evaluate them to make sure the findings are valid.*
|
||||
|
||||
Whenever I run statistics, I want to make sure that they work. I do this by seeing if they show a relationship when they should, and if they show no relationship when there is none.
|
||||
|
||||
A correlation is used when you have two continuous variables (like two stocks), and you want to see if they are related. The standard correlation combines two things: how well the two variables move together (covariance) and how spread out the data is (variance). THIS IS AMAZING, correlations are seriously clever. However, every statistical analysis comes with assumptions (the fine print) that even peer reviewed publications do not pay attention to.
|
||||
|
||||
The most common correlation is a [Pearson's correlation coefficient](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pearson_correlation_coefficient) (r). A Pearson's r is a value between -1 and 1, the absolute value of which reflects the strength of the relationship, and the sign indicates the direction (positive -- as one variable increases, the other increases; negative -- as one variable increases, the other decreases). From your r and the size of the dataset, you can get a p-value that is the probability that you found the effect due to chance (sort of). If p = 0.05, that means that there is a 5% chance that there is no effect, even though your stats show one.
|
||||
|
||||
A few notes before we look at numbers:
|
||||
|
||||
1. A more accurate explanation of a p-value is the following: if we were to run the same test over and over on different samples from the same population, p is the probability of finding an effect due to chance.
|
||||
|
||||
2. There is a completely arbitrary cutoff of p=0.05 to indicate significance. That is, if p <= 0.05 the effect is significant, if p > 0.05, it is not. I don't necessarily agree with this, but it will be used as a standard for now.
|
||||
|
||||
3. Although I will be using a Pearson's r as an example, a [Spearman's r](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spearman%27s_rank_correlation_coefficient) is more appropriate for stock data. I have tested Spearman's in the same way and found similar results.
|
||||
|
||||
The correlation between GME and AMC is (r = 0.71, p = 2.2 e -16). That's a p value with more zeros than I even thought possible! Now let's look at something that should not be correlated, GME and SPY (r = 0.78, p = 2.2 e -16). *They are basically the same*. They are so similar I had to continually check my code. This is certainly not true for all stocks, I just found it to be a good example.
|
||||
|
||||
*Why might this be?*
|
||||
|
||||
At the bottom of this linked page, there is a nice list of the assumptions along with an explanations: <https://statistics.laerd.com/statistical-guides/pearson-correlation-coefficient-statistical-guide.php>
|
||||
|
||||
The biggest issue with stock data is it breaks the independence assumption (assumption 3). The independence assumption basically says that each observation within a variable should be independent of other observations in the same variable.
|
||||
|
||||
So if I were to look at the relationship between size of ape 🦍 and number of bananas 🍌eaten daily, we would likely see a positive correlation:
|
||||
|
||||
🐒= 🍌🍌
|
||||
|
||||
🦍= 🍌🍌🍌🍌🍌
|
||||
|
||||
🦧= 🍌🍌🍌🍌🍌🍌🍌🍌🍌🍌🍌
|
||||
|
||||
Here, the number of bananas eaten by one ape 🦍*does not depend* on the number of bananas 🍌 another ape 🦍 has eaten (assuming an all-inclusive banana buffet 🍌🍌🍌🍌🍌🍌🍌🍌🍌🍌🍌🍌).
|
||||
|
||||
In stock data, this is not true. The opening price on one day depends on the price in a previous day. This type of data is called *time series data*, which just means it changes over time. One way statisticians talk about this is called autocorrelation, which is simply that observations in a variable are correlated with others in that variable (it is correlated with itself).
|
||||
|
||||
[DISCLAIMER: I am not an expert in time series data. I have been doing a lot of research lately to try to catch up. If anyone has a better method than the one below, please let me know!]
|
||||
|
||||
Removing autocorrelation from the data:
|
||||
|
||||
There are a few ways to deal with this, but we ultimately decided to remove the autocorrelation from the data and do our statistics on the result. The methods used are not developed by us. They were found from an excellent graduate student statistics class at Penn State (<https://online.stat.psu.edu/stat510/lesson/1>) and from this online text book by Rob J Hyndman and George Athanasopoulos (<https://otexts.com/fpp2/index.html>).
|
||||
|
||||
We tried A LOT of different methods (filtering data through ARIMA models, transforming data using various functions, etc). The resulting data from many of the methods could only be used specifically for correlations, and there is a lot of other tests we want to do (see future directions below). We recently decided on a simple transformation that does a great job (though not perfect), called differencing. The result will sometimes have small autocorrelation left in the data, but it is simple, clean, and hopefully I will convince you below that it works for our purposes.
|
||||
|
||||
Differencing is typically used to stabilize the mean of a time series, so you can focus on fluctuations. It is a transform where you subtract the previous observation from the current observation for all data. So difference(t) = observation(t) -- observation(t-1). There is a lot more to discuss out this, and I would be happy to answer questions, but here I want to get to why I think it works (this post is long enough as is).
|
||||
|
||||
After differencing the data, I used a cross-correlation to find out if X and Y were related. Cross-correlation is nice because the data does not have to line up perfectly to find a relationship. For example, if you think a large change in AMC will precede GME, the cross correlation will find that relationship for you.
|
||||
|
||||
That was a lot of writing, thank you if you stuck around until now!
|
||||
|
||||
Proof of concept
|
||||
|
||||
Let's look at some graphs. On all graphs below, the left panel shows price data, and the right shows the cross-correlation results. The results are shown as a bar graph with lag on the x-axis (days in this case) and Pearson's correlation coefficient on the y-axis. If a bar crosses the horizontal blue line, it is significant at the p=0.05 level.
|
||||
|
||||
To help with interpreting the data, I messed around with the mini squeeze from GME in January. The following is correlating that data with itself with different lags/transformations, which means that the r = 1 in every result.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/mq8x1fuovx471.png?width=3024&format=png&auto=webp&s=4a10bc8965c5e261cd6522b97b4ee0935c84cb09)
|
||||
|
||||
Now we can see how to interpret the results, but how do we know if it is actually working? The above examples show that the method can detect a significant result, so let's look at the relationship between GME and SPY again, just like we did in the beginning.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/hgg0q2tpvx471.png?width=2140&format=png&auto=webp&s=1929d7bdcfaf5755e9fc022a7321894796f5c420)
|
||||
|
||||
I WAS SO HAPPY WHEN I SAW THIS. I tested a bunch of other stocks (and simulated data) that shouldn't be related, so now I feel confident that the method works (if you want more information, please let me know). To finish this off, I want to show results from some real data, which is never as clean as my examples above.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/cicfdenqvx471.png?width=3032&format=png&auto=webp&s=200877f436463a02b344f0f1dd5aa8011279b80c)
|
||||
|
||||
Replication of Q1: Comparison of GME, AMC, BBBY, KOSS, NAKD, NOK, and VIX
|
||||
|
||||
*Ed note:* [*Q1 bitbucket repo is here*](https://github.com/SuperstonkQuants/q1_correlations)
|
||||
|
||||
While it is easy to get excited about results (I get overly excited), always remember correlation does not equal causation, so we may have mediators and moderators that are contributing to the effect.
|
||||
|
||||
I am going to stay in my lane and not speculate what this all *means*, rather this is just an example with real data. All have significance at lag 0, showing that the two stocks are related with no shift. One result I would like to talk about is GME vs. NOK. Visually, it does not look as though they are correlated, yet the results say it is. I was worried that this was an issue with the method, but if I zoom in on NOK we see a nice bump in opening price at the same time as the spike in GME opening price. *This is why it is so important to do the stats*. Graphical representations are amazing, I've literally drooled over some of the graphs you all have posted, but it is also worth seeing what the stats tell us so we don't miss anything (or make speculations about relationships that do not exist).
|
||||
|
||||
IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER: When you run a statistical test over and over on data, the chances that you see an effect do to chance increases. For example, let's say all effects have a p=0.05. If we run 1000 tests, then 50 of those tests will show something that isn't real. A lot of questions we've received ask about more than two stocks, so we will deal with the issue soon (discussed below).
|
||||
|
||||
Future directions
|
||||
|
||||
Now that we have a good method for correlations, there is a lot we can do! First, we want to compare more than two stocks at once. Since we removed the autocorrelation (ish) from the data, we can use standard approaches like multiple regression to do that. After that we have a few things going on:
|
||||
|
||||
- As I speak, other quant apes are running rolling correlations with the data (see when stocks become related)
|
||||
|
||||
- I would like to get a path analysis script together, which will give us more information on how extensive the market manipulation is.
|
||||
|
||||
- We want to use this method for crypto data (which is even messier than stock data) as many of you have suggested.
|
||||
|
||||
- WHATEVER ELSE YOU COME UP WITH
|
||||
|
||||
Our strength comes from the hive mind, so I hope many of you can use these tools to ask your own questions. The code will be [available on the github](https://github.com/SuperstonkQuants/statistics_rocks), so go have a look (and also check out all the other amazing stuff there).
|
||||
|
||||
The more we know, the better prepared we will be to make sure the world is a better place. I love all you sexy, hairy apes <3 and a shoutout to the mods who are doing an AMAZING job.
|
@ -0,0 +1,130 @@
|
||||
Is GME's price related to the Reverse Repo Rate in some way? - Lets find out! - Brought to you by the Superstonk Quants 🦍👨💻🧐🚀
|
||||
===================================================================================================================================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/orangecatmasterrace](https://www.reddit.com/user/orangecatmasterrace/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/DDintoGME/comments/nype4f/is_gmes_price_related_to_the_reverse_repo_rate_in/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
[𝘜𝘯𝘷𝘦𝘳𝘪𝘧𝘪𝘦𝘥 𝘋𝘋](https://www.reddit.com/r/DDintoGME/search?q=flair_name%3A%22%F0%9D%98%9C%F0%9D%98%AF%F0%9D%98%B7%F0%9D%98%A6%F0%9D%98%B3%F0%9D%98%AA%F0%9D%98%A7%F0%9D%98%AA%F0%9D%98%A6%F0%9D%98%A5%20%F0%9D%98%8B%F0%9D%98%8B%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||
Hi everyone! I'm [u/orangecatmasterrace](https://www.reddit.com/u/orangecatmasterrace/) - a longtime reddit lurker, but I've been involved in GME since January. I'm posting here as I don't yet have enough karma to post directly to [r/Superstonk](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/). I wanted to share an analysis that I, along with the incredibly talented apes at [Superstonk Quants](https://www.superstonkquant.org/) pulled together over the past couple days. We're the group that initially banded together to aid [u/HomeDepotHank69](https://www.reddit.com/u/HomeDepotHank69/) in his [quest for data-driven DD](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nu9qq9/hanks_big_bang_quant_apes_glitch_the_simulation/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3).
|
||||
|
||||
The Superstonk Quants want to ensure that data-driven insights around GME and the surrounding market are arrived at correctly, with the correct methodology, in conjunction with an internal peer review process. We're hoping that this analysis will be a small step towards providing this incredible community with accurate data behind what is going on right now. We've got many more irons in the fire right now, which we're super excited to share soon! 🚀
|
||||
|
||||
Brief background: I'm a data analyst by trade, with a background in psychology, data science, and behavioral analysis. I work with data 5/7 days of the week (now more like 7/7 since joining the Quants) but financial/stock market data is certainly a new flavor for me. This work has already allowed me to learn a lot and stretch my data legs a lot further than I thought!
|
||||
|
||||
Without any further ado, lets jump into this, shall we? 😏
|
||||
|
||||
This analysis was brought about after we saw a post that got some traction recently, seeking to derive [correlation between the Reverse Repo rates and the share price of GME](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nx2mg4/statistical_proof_that_hedgies_r_fuk_and_the_repo/).
|
||||
|
||||
While the idea behind this analysis was sound, and the hypotheses that [u/bobsmith808](https://www.reddit.com/u/bobsmith808/) developed were an interesting starter to the analysis, unfortunately, the methodology behind the comparisons and the conclusions were not completely accurate. (Its ok Bob! You're still a true ape and we love you!)
|
||||
|
||||
In order to properly determine the answer to the question, "Is GME's price related to the Reverse Repo Rate in some way?" we needed to approach this with a methodology that controls for some of the tricky nuances that come with working on time series data.
|
||||
|
||||
My partner in crime, the incredibly bewrinkled statistics sensei [u/braaaaiiinnnsss](https://www.reddit.com/u/braaaaiiinnnsss/), did an amazing job introducing and explaining many of the factors we had to take into consideration when conducting this analysis in his [recent DD](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nym1ua/an_update_on_relationships_between_stocks/).
|
||||
|
||||
I'd strongly recommend reading through his post before continuing, as the concepts that I'll be covering build directly off of those established there. I've got to give a huge shout out to our resident golden (data) retriever [u/xpurplexamyx](https://www.reddit.com/u/xpurplexamyx/) and an unyieldingly anonymous Wendy's-fueled analyst for their input and perspective on solving this problem; this was absolutely a team effort! 🐒🦍🦧
|
||||
|
||||
Ok! So now that you're all a tad bit wrinklier about working with time series data, I want to run you through what I found through the course of my analysis.
|
||||
|
||||
First, I loaded up the GME OHLC and Reverse Repo data from 1/1/2020 through 6/10/2021, and wanted to make sure I could reproduce the scatter plots that [u/bobsmith808](https://www.reddit.com/u/bobsmith808/) pulled together in his analysis in order to validate I was using the same data :) Reproducibility is important here!
|
||||
|
||||
I plotted the GME Open price against the Reverse Repo Daily Totals, and arrived at a very similar looking dinosaur(?)-shaped plot.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/9qy00vbdry471.png?width=763&format=png&auto=webp&s=ed89a492727673f4634b9084ce464fbde8fce805)
|
||||
|
||||
🦕 says rawr
|
||||
|
||||
Ok, so now that we know we're looking at the same thing, lets start to use the methodology that [u/braaaaiiinnnsss](https://www.reddit.com/u/braaaaiiinnnsss/) shared in his post to determine if a relationship exists here.
|
||||
|
||||
I applied an [ARIMA model](https://www.rdocumentation.org/packages/forecast/versions/8.15/topics/Arima) to the GME Open price to see if there was any reasonable lag in GME's price that could have a relationship with the Reverse Repo. Basically, what I wanted to look for here was if GME's Price changing (both direction and magnitude) could be related to the Reverse Repo at some leading or lagging interval. The ARIMA model gives me values called residuals, which are the differences between each of the daily GME Open prices. Running this model controls for autocorrelation and allows us to run a CCF (cross-correlation) between the model's residuals and the Reverse Repo Daily Totals.
|
||||
|
||||
After running the CCF, here's what we get:
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/7ndp686try471.png?width=735&format=png&auto=webp&s=b719c9feb750cc2ecf8fa9fb8c12a6e109bde73a)
|
||||
|
||||
The lines Mason! What do they mean?!
|
||||
|
||||
These might look like a whole bunch of useless lines, but these lines tell us...*things!* What we're looking at here is how strong of a relationship the changes in GME's price has with the Reverse Repo Daily Totals, at various daily offsets (lags), both forward and backward.
|
||||
|
||||
BUT -- In order for a statistically significant relationship to exist, we'd have to see one of these lines extending past the blue dotted line. That's our threshold for significance at the p=0.05 level.
|
||||
|
||||
Since none of the vertical lines crossed the blue dotted lines, we can initially assume that these 2 variables are not correlated with each other, at least at any level of statistical significance.
|
||||
|
||||
BUT LET'S NOT THROW IN THE TOWEL YET!
|
||||
|
||||
I'm not gonna let 1 measly chart tell me that nothing's there!
|
||||
|
||||
Perhaps there's another way we could investigate this relationship?
|
||||
|
||||
Well, I'm glad you asked, because there absolutely is!
|
||||
|
||||
Now, before I go into what this methodology is, I have to preface: I'm a huge data visualization guy. It's probably my favorite aspect of working with data. I have to be able to *see the data* to really, fully understand it most of the time. So I wanted to find a methodology that was able to satisfy both the statistical *and* the visual aspect of this question.
|
||||
|
||||
After spending an unhealthy amount of time scouring through scholarly papers and too many Google results telling me to just "run a correlation" I stumbled on the *very cool* approach of Rolling Correlation.
|
||||
|
||||
Rolling Correlation is an approach to analyzing time series data that uncovers specifically WHEN and HOW MUCH two series are related to each other in time, at dynamic time windows. Rather than taking a static, overall calculation of correlation between two series over the entire span of time, rolling correlation brings the aspect of TIME into center stage -- allowing you to see *visually* when the two series might be related to each other and when they're not, on our favorite correlation scale of -1 to 1: -1 being perfectly negatively correlated, 1 being perfectly positively correlated, and 0 being no correlation.
|
||||
|
||||
Now before we go comparing every ticker on the planet to each other, there's another important wrinkle that we need to develop.
|
||||
|
||||
Remember back to the wise words of Papa [u/braaaaiiinnnsss](https://www.reddit.com/u/braaaaiiinnnsss/): *"The biggest issue with stock data is it breaks the independence assumption."* That's fancy statistical ape speak for "every single data point in your series is related to the ones before and after it."
|
||||
|
||||
We can't just chuck raw price data into a rolling correlation and walk away with results; we need to remove the autocorrelation from the data in order to have a meaningful result. We're going to use the method that [u/braaaaiiinnnsss](https://www.reddit.com/u/braaaaiiinnnsss/) -sama introduced of differencing here again.
|
||||
|
||||
So I then calculated the differences for the daily GME Open prices and the Reverse Repo Totals. These differenced values are what we're going to compare, not the raw price values.
|
||||
|
||||
Next, within the rolling correlation function, we need to supply a "window" for the span of time that we want our correlations to span. This value is extremely important, as using too small of a value will result in an wild, noisy output that doesn't make a lot of sense, and too large of a value will result in a calculation that isn't sensitive enough to changes within the data. The general rule of thumb with time series data is that you need *at minimum* 25 observations in order to get a reliable correlation. After a little bit of trial and error, I settled on using a 60-day window. This gave a nice balance of interpretability in the results, and it wasn't too over or under sensitive in changes with the data.
|
||||
|
||||
After running the rolling correlation, here's what we get:
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/poiviqtpty471.png?width=1077&format=png&auto=webp&s=f27eb0fbdce33f99d3f48e98e22209f12a17526f)
|
||||
|
||||
Well that's certainly *something!*
|
||||
|
||||
This plot shows the degree at which the two differenced variables are related to each other, at each of the 60-day rolling windows over time. each point along the line represents a window of 60 days, advancing through time, left to right. The closer the correlation line is to the bright red or blue lines at -1 and 1, the stronger the relationship between the variables, either negative or positive. The closer to the light blue center line, the weaker the relationship.
|
||||
|
||||
Since the points are between 0.5 and -0.5, mostly along the center line at 0, we can assume that the GME Open price and the RRP Daily Totals are generally not strongly correlated with each other, *particularly so* after the January run-up.
|
||||
|
||||
If a correlation actually existed there, we'd see those black dots much closer to either of the red lines, and it might look something like.... oh, I don't know.... the comparison between GME and AMC? 😏
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/qefqa015uy471.png?width=1198&format=png&auto=webp&s=a43a2b3dbf2e9ba8bec872c43416246b671005fa)
|
||||
|
||||
.98 is a VERY strong correlation during that window 😤
|
||||
|
||||
...but that's the subject of my next DD for another day 😏🚀
|
||||
|
||||
Anyways! I didn't want to stop with just *one comparison.*
|
||||
|
||||
I wanted to see if potentially the number of Reverse Repo Counterparties might have some kind of relationship, even if the Totals themselves didn't. So I ran a similar analysis with differenced values for GME's Open again along with the Counterparties, and here's the result:
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/qrt9rp2vuy471.png?width=1076&format=png&auto=webp&s=ddb96385a984b31d33c9a42a953b53023cd79e25)
|
||||
|
||||
Nope, nothing significant here either.
|
||||
|
||||
BUT I WASN'T DONE YET.
|
||||
|
||||
I ran a third analysis on the amount of Reverse Repo Totals per Counterparty against GME's Open price.
|
||||
|
||||
Third time's the charm?
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/mmw3xfc1vy471.png?width=1076&format=png&auto=webp&s=707dd17844502824c53e778654e9f1bacbec7c17)
|
||||
|
||||
Nope, still no significant relationship to speak of.
|
||||
|
||||
I feel pretty confident based on this approach that no statistically significant relationship exists, or has ever really existed between GME's price and the Reverse Repo.
|
||||
|
||||
But worry not fellow apes! Just because the Reverse Repo isn't statistically related to GME's price movements doesn't mean the squeeze ain't gonna squoze!
|
||||
|
||||
The exciting part about these analyses is that they've been a catalyst for the Superstonk Quants to develop a methodology for running these comparisons. We're planning to share more results of this approach very soon!
|
||||
|
||||
In the meantime, if you'd like to check out the code along with a brief summary of the analysis, we've hosted the R markdown on the Superstonk Quants website [here](https://rrpgme.superstonkquant.org/)!
|
||||
|
||||
Additionally, the full R code is available on our [Github repo](https://github.com/SuperstonkQuants/reddit_RRPGME_corr)!
|
||||
|
||||
If there's one thing that I've taken away from doing this work so far, its that:
|
||||
|
||||
APES ARE TRULY STRONGER TOGETHER 🐒🦍🦧💎🙌🚀🚀🚀🌝
|
||||
|
||||
BUCKLE UP.
|
@ -0,0 +1,124 @@
|
||||
The Matrix is Everywhere. A Quant DD
|
||||
====================================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/BurnieSlander](https://www.reddit.com/user/BurnieSlander/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nzajpv/the_matrix_is_everywhere_a_quant_dd/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
[DD 👨🔬](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22DD%20%F0%9F%91%A8%E2%80%8D%F0%9F%94%AC%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||
Greetings Apetards, hold on to your tits.
|
||||
|
||||
Why you should not take financial advice from me:
|
||||
|
||||
1. I put things in my mouth that I shouldn't; play dough, brown crayolas (because keto).
|
||||
|
||||
2. I drank from the gutter as a child and got giardia and my brain was affected.
|
||||
|
||||
3. I ate [M](https://imgur.com/a/2hsRx5M)[achineel fruit](https://www.southernliving.com/garden/trees/manchineel-poison-tree) while on vacation 2 years ago because they taste good. But they make you feel very bad.
|
||||
|
||||
4. Copious amounts of substances that have made my mind incompatible with normal life.
|
||||
|
||||
Ever since [u/HomeDepotHank69](https://www.reddit.com/u/HomeDepotHank69/) rallied the Quant Apes and showed [increasing levels of correlation](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nu9qq9/hanks_big_bang_quant_apes_glitch_the_simulation/) among a number of shorted stocks, I've been wondering- just how big is the House of Cards? This technical DD attempts to answer that question by mining price data for over 6K tickers and identifying stocks with similar price action to GME.
|
||||
|
||||
As a salute to HD Hank's work with other Quant Apes, I ran my own independent correlation analysis and created a slightly more eyeball-friendly version of the results:
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/8oc8uadoj4571.png?width=2002&format=png&auto=webp&s=883e5db6a01056b047c30f4ef67eeb3d38dcaa41)
|
||||
|
||||
In 2020, these stocks had low correlation; which is typical in a free-ish market. In 2021, we see a huge surge in correlation rates. IMO, this is indicative of hedge funds using the same or highly similar HFT algorithms to manipulate prices.
|
||||
|
||||
Now that we know that shorted stocks have suddenly started moving together in 2021, we can hypothesize that there are even more stocks out there that are also correlated.
|
||||
|
||||
Analyzing 6,319 tickers taken from North American companies trading on NYSE and Nasdaq, during the January 2021 blip:
|
||||
|
||||
- 16 stocks gained more than 500%
|
||||
|
||||
- 39 stocks gained more than 300%
|
||||
|
||||
- 279 stocks gained more than 100%
|
||||
|
||||
These numbers are interesting to me because it gives us some insight into the scale of what we are dealing with. As HD Hank said, 1 stock squeezing is *extremely* rare. I would add that 279 stocks displaying similar price action during the January blip is somewhere in the realm of god-tier what-the-fuckery.
|
||||
|
||||
OK, but the blip doesn't mean shit if "Shorts Have Covered"TM
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/sxalstfqc4571.png?width=1278&format=png&auto=webp&s=14fcfea7182b84b309280719f82bb2f6d6b89b14)
|
||||
|
||||
Shorts have a lot more covering to do.
|
||||
|
||||
So let's look at only those stocks which have been able to sustain the gains made during the January blip. Of the 279 stocks that gained more than 100% during the blip:
|
||||
|
||||
- 5 have maintained gains of 1,000% or higher
|
||||
|
||||
- 14 have maintained gains of 500% or higher
|
||||
|
||||
- 25 have maintained gains of 400% or higher
|
||||
|
||||
- 43 have maintained gains of 300% or higher
|
||||
|
||||
- 74 have maintained gains of 200% or higher
|
||||
|
||||
- 135 have maintained gains of 100% or higher
|
||||
|
||||
Fun Fact: The combined market cap of the 135 gainer-maintainers is 203 Billion.
|
||||
|
||||
If the shorts had covered, we wouldn't be looking at this many stonks holding on to ridiculous gains for over 4 months.
|
||||
|
||||
Of these sustained gains, GME is the king at 2,463.86%. AMC comes in second at 1,735.11%
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/qs0qkcborz471.png?width=1306&format=png&auto=webp&s=187408c522c47c0de806639890f3c8e62f810bdf)
|
||||
|
||||
*Note that of these 135 stocks, there may be a few whose gains are unrelated to shorting/hedgefuckery/apes. That said, based on my criteria for this analysis, all 135 of these stocks experienced a big jump above their baseline in late January 2021 and have exhibited similar price action since, all while trending upwards far above their baseline while maintaining gains.
|
||||
|
||||
Charting these stocks makes it pretty clear that the hedgies are losing control
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/mj5uu2ebd4571.png?width=3634&format=png&auto=webp&s=9eea5bd3ab14acc7d5938987d19d9f86adb597ee)
|
||||
|
||||
Note what a normal market looks like on the left vs. where we are now.
|
||||
|
||||
TRUTH or FUD!
|
||||
|
||||
FUD: Retail buying is the only factor driving prices up. Gamer Apes and Movie Apes are just really good at meme hype and people are FOMO'ing into these stocks in droves, and then periodically bailing out when the price action gets too spicy.
|
||||
|
||||
TRUTH: The fact that other stocks which don't have a community behind them are still holding onto their gains from the blip 4+ months ago AND are experiencing wild price action similar to GME, while ALSO trending upwards following their own exponential curves, tells us that *SQUEEZY MARKET FORCES* are the primary driver of what we are seeing.
|
||||
|
||||
IMO, retail simply doesn't have the purchasing power to maintain 100% to 2,000% gains across 135 stocks. Especially not in a post-pandemic world where nobody works and we all just gamble away our government teat-milk based on 2-star-quality wallstreetbets DD.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/wxyuzh9m30571.png?width=718&format=png&auto=webp&s=b2ee2a9c4ec406443037e4f5ecf4a57f21289c79)
|
||||
|
||||
*It's not that I hate my job it's just that I hate having to have a job
|
||||
|
||||
This analysis again led me back to HD Hank & The Quant Apes work with price action correlations among groups of stocks. Taking the top 75 gainer-maintainers from the earlier exercise, I created a correlation matrix for those stocks across 2020 and 2021. We want to see if correlation increased in 2021.
|
||||
|
||||
Greener cells indicate higher correlation.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/neqpx9ijq4571.png?width=1632&format=png&auto=webp&s=770d7f5e9664dead065a9eb612936a47881cdbf4)
|
||||
|
||||
*The diagonal white line is a byproduct of how the matrix is constructed- disregard. Also, I chose the top 75 because I didn't want to wait 3 hours for my laptop to process the larger dataset.
|
||||
|
||||
I know these just look like shitty QR codes, but the results are significant. *The aggregate correlation value for this set of 75 stocks in 2020 is 22.19, while the aggregate in 2021 is 60.9 (hehe).*
|
||||
|
||||
*This means that correlation among these stocks increased by nearly 3x in 2021*. A free market doesn't do this. A manipulated market does.
|
||||
|
||||
Conclusion
|
||||
|
||||
The House of Cards is much larger than we know. Greedy SHF's thought the pandemic was an infinite money glitch and over-extended their short positions on brick and mortars and other vulnerable industries because it "literally can't go tits up". They were so over-leveraged that the simple ape strategy of buy-and-hold became the proton torpedo down the death star vent shaft. What we are witnessing now is the beginnings of the chain reaction that blows up the whole thing.
|
||||
|
||||
If you aren't Star Wars savvy, [click here](https://www.quora.com/How-did-Luke-Skywalker-destroy-the-Death-Star) for an explainer.
|
||||
|
||||
It doesn't take much to topple a House of Cards- the real challenge is simply having the guts to do it.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/y8fbknwz80571.jpg?width=2000&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=d313208f5fa017cb4773086c9e7c556597bdef4e)
|
||||
|
||||
So wen moon? Moon soon my dear apes. For the moment, [we are here](https://www.reddit.com/r/MovieDetails/comments/hml9ua/in_the_big_short_2015_the_analyst_from_standard/).
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/bac2kx5m40571.png?width=960&format=png&auto=webp&s=f8bc7e886865d2b52cbc88b414e129d94cb6e7c6)
|
||||
|
||||
*** Thanks again to HD Hank and The Quant Apes for the inspiration for this post ***
|
||||
|
||||
EDIT: Full list of gainers & maintainers here:
|
||||
|
||||
<https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1WKPzllUsVD4Py_tfl6JsSlQA8slZ6bWpwDJ_f_ds5ps/edit?usp=sharing>
|
||||
|
||||
TL;DR - The Matrix is Everywhere. This is not isolated to a few stocks. Analysis shows potentially hundreds of stocks involved. SHF's are economic parasites that have infested the US financial system. Buy and Hold is causing them to lose control of perhaps ALL of their short positions. MOASS imminent.
|
@ -0,0 +1,140 @@
|
||||
GME is a Rocket/Pressure Cooker - Quant Analysis of RSI and Parabolic Activity - Momentum Indicators
|
||||
====================================================================================================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/Hey_Madie](https://www.reddit.com/user/Hey_Madie/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/o2gfvr/gme_is_a_rocketpressure_cooker_quant_analysis_of/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
[DD 👨🔬](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22DD%20%F0%9F%91%A8%E2%80%8D%F0%9F%94%AC%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/emiby2pitw571.png?width=457&format=png&auto=webp&s=3e4afde797086bea502f76ad20a725d6f154a790)
|
||||
|
||||
Parabolic Strudel - The Ingredients
|
||||
|
||||
Preface
|
||||
|
||||
I've been following the extreme patterns and data points that GME presents for the better part of the last year. In that time, I've been refining a few theories specific to parabolic behavior. Whether at the 1-minute level or at the 1-day perspective. I have found that depending on the market conditions and with a particular set of variables, the price action for GME can be rapid and to a degree predictable. This analysis will show you a pulled-backed perspective and how the measure of 7 is the difference between a parabolic event or not.
|
||||
|
||||
The Theory
|
||||
|
||||
The RSI level for GME is being suppressed below the value of 53. If suppression were to lessen or stop, the strength and price action of GME would rapidly ascend with an unknown trajectory would persist.
|
||||
|
||||
*"Madie, so what you're saying is if GME gains enough strength and begins below RSI 53 and ascends past it to RSI 60 at the 1-day chart, that a parabolic event will happen?" - Yes!*
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/8blejy727y571.png?width=1600&format=png&auto=webp&s=f2d232d539af7c0ef98b383391e574bb036abdbd)
|
||||
|
||||
I am not a cat, but I am a fan of The Doctor.
|
||||
|
||||
How accurate is your data?
|
||||
|
||||
I float on a few discords, I've been vibing on the WSBN Discord as of late.💚 At times, I will test data in real-time to gauge momentum shifts, whether negative or positive. I don't let people know the outcome to mitigate someone taking it as financial advice. I have a solid pattern of momentum shift predictions. At this point, the theory work is very close to near accuracy. In the chart below, I indicated a time and momentum shift. It just so happen to extend into a parabolic event.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/owggil0prx571.png?width=672&format=png&auto=webp&s=2c2a91642df9741c636afb8a6c598a9eee831bae)
|
||||
|
||||
A different theory measured at the 1-minute level.
|
||||
|
||||
A few of my previous theory posts.
|
||||
|
||||
[The Theory on GME Parabolic Activity](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nn4a59/the_theory_on_gme_parabolic_activity/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3)
|
||||
|
||||
[Working Theory of Parabolic Events 2.0](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/neopc9/working_theory_of_parabolic_events_20/)
|
||||
|
||||
[I'm bullish - Testing my Parabolic Theory](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nuutpg/im_bullish_testing_my_parabolic_theory/)
|
||||
|
||||
Indicators & Purpose
|
||||
|
||||
I see the potential value of this theory work to help define or create novel indicators to understand market conditions and landscape. All indicators use specific and public data points to provide us with a measure, not an answer. When the MOASS comes and goes, many of us will return to the market. I want to apply my theory work towards enacting change and scaling indicators based on the lessons learned and data related to GME, Shorting, et al. Indicators are in need of a refresh.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/9vaet9zvsx571.png?width=610&format=png&auto=webp&s=438023852753e66d8f7445f7ac82c010accd1cda)
|
||||
|
||||
https://www.investopedia.com/top-7-technical-analysis-tools-4773275
|
||||
|
||||
Why should we care about new indicators and crazy theories like this?
|
||||
|
||||
Exhibit A - PLEASE WATCH JUST 2 MINUTES - Sorry, not yelling, but this sums it up and I'm sorry if you punch your screen.
|
||||
|
||||
["How Ken uses your behavior and his Quants take advantage of the retail trader."](https://youtu.be/5KOT0_I4Fvw?t=154)
|
||||
|
||||
*"Ken,*
|
||||
|
||||
*I'm Madie, a human/ape Quant that has found your patterns in mere months. Your Quants are weak."*
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/hyhlj9i61y571.png?width=570&format=png&auto=webp&s=b67323219d936dfd04f1b37e588ab489df830e52)
|
||||
|
||||
The Many Big Brains
|
||||
|
||||
I have been very fortunate and humbled to be invited and collaborate within a few big-brain quant groups. I have found that many DDer's are finding quantifiable data but it doesn't exactly match up with other DD's to create a consistent argument basis. A good example is whether the T21 date is right or what is truly driving FTD data? The calculations line up but don't always align with the border theory.
|
||||
|
||||
It is my opinion that it isn't a matter of whether the DD is wrong. If the data is verifiable and can to a degree be quantified, then I feel that this is a new pattern of suppression that has been discovered.
|
||||
|
||||
Some will argue that the DD is simple, buy and hold. With that said, the evolving DD is still important work, it very well could uncover the manipulation of the system that is suppressing GME. All these patterns and data points will be validated when hedge fund data is made more public in the future. I foresee the correlations between the DD's we know of today and connections to specific patterns connected to Algo trading patterns. I think much of what we see is the patterns starting to become more obvious.
|
||||
|
||||
So let's dive a little deeper!
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/v3lfipkvtx571.jpg?width=1995&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=0de76dbc516cc6fc005e43b7835b54369d7a727c)
|
||||
|
||||
The Deep Dive
|
||||
|
||||
In this deep dive, I found a consistency of parabolic activity triggers. This measure of parabolic activity is specific to GME. The practice of shorting GME greatly influences the suppression of the strength and momentum of GME.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/v0posaxalw571.png?width=470&format=png&auto=webp&s=75a84c5f62782bceb56831344ce603c77c4dbe97)
|
||||
|
||||
It's colorful and this is worthy of absorbing. It is the magic variable.
|
||||
|
||||
The Visual Indicator
|
||||
|
||||
Parabolic occurrences are represented using rockets. The size represents the strength of the parabolic event. RSI 53 ascending to RSI 60 = Parabolic Event
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/d2wkjnrviw571.png?width=3140&format=png&auto=webp&s=29721d3aaf783fec2c2ceabe6345b0b167f6ecfd)
|
||||
|
||||
I would recommend opening the chart in a new tab. The devil is in the details.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/47zb03uzkw571.png?width=437&format=png&auto=webp&s=ed7c95cf0687de4574d92c013781e48ecad66994)
|
||||
|
||||
Parabolic Events are defined when RSI exceeds a value of 70+.
|
||||
|
||||
A Closer Look
|
||||
|
||||
This chart began at 5/3 using the daily chart. Notice the daily RSI build and eventual outcome of a parabolic event (RSI 70+).
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/reo2zwguxw571.png?width=2704&format=png&auto=webp&s=a1741235af3dd0ba8fb889e14af5152679d61fdd)
|
||||
|
||||
GME Chart at 1D, starting on 5/3 - 5/27
|
||||
|
||||
Quant, you say?
|
||||
|
||||
Here is the quant data pertaining to the reasoning and use of RSI 53. I used a frequency polygon to determine the median factor of all RSI levels. 53 was the winner.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/jqivil2vrw571.png?width=456&format=png&auto=webp&s=afc9d0933afc4ffb7ab46cd720fdb942c7571184)
|
||||
|
||||
The frequency data set being used is between 8/26/2020 - 6/17/2021. The frequency represents the number of times that RSI dropped from RSI 53 to a value below 47.00-53.99.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/17amvxcmcw571.png?width=1041&format=png&auto=webp&s=cfc6084f19cd4fd3fd0a1daaccc68c3a2b7f5c34)
|
||||
|
||||
The number 53 represents the lowest number with the highest frequency of being a part of parabolic price action.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/te3xpnyqcw571.png?width=134&format=png&auto=webp&s=44fa322c40d024e0ab5a3844302ad63496b41426)
|
||||
|
||||
Winner Winner, RSI 53 is the magic variable.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/hngos60ucw571.png?width=450&format=png&auto=webp&s=31dd3230da295b590c7fd3f3e384fbfb0a9300d8)
|
||||
|
||||
A standard chart.
|
||||
|
||||
Conclusion
|
||||
|
||||
If GME were left to run past RSI 53 and ascend to RSI 60+, the result would be a parabolic event. It's as simple as that. GME is influenced by many factors, but the data in this analysis should conclude that between RSI 53-60, the factor of 7 is what remains between the parabolic and the suppressed state. The fact of the matter is that this method is beginning to show a trend towards a declining slope of effectiveness. Educate yourself and keep your head on a swivel. 💚
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/cixamn8vqx571.png?width=496&format=png&auto=webp&s=1295d88f12ba849d87310aa97b681b5a92eae620)
|
||||
|
||||
...or is it?
|
||||
|
||||
Sources
|
||||
|
||||
[GME - Shares Short](https://www.ortex.com/stocks/26195/shorts)
|
||||
|
||||
[Technical Indicators](https://www.investopedia.com/top-7-technical-analysis-tools-4773275)
|
||||
|
||||
TL;DR: Keeping Holding! 🦍🚀🍌
|
138
Daily-Synopsis-Archives/2021-06-14-Synopsis.md
Normal file
138
Daily-Synopsis-Archives/2021-06-14-Synopsis.md
Normal file
@ -0,0 +1,138 @@
|
||||
The Daily Stonk 06-14-2021
|
||||
==========================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/rensole](https://www.reddit.com/user/rensole/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nzingy/the_daily_stonk_06142021/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
[Daily News 🦍💎🙌🚀](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22Daily%20News%20%F0%9F%A6%8D%F0%9F%92%8E%F0%9F%99%8C%F0%9F%9A%80%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/uf0429x3z6571.png?width=1600&format=png&auto=webp&s=43acc7118aad55a184dad517a41cf1f621cc7220)
|
||||
|
||||
Good Morning San Diago,
|
||||
|
||||
I am Rensole and this is your daily news.
|
||||
|
||||
Does anyone smell that?
|
||||
|
||||
*insert flashy intro card*
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/69g2igt5z6571.png?width=680&format=png&auto=webp&s=77732a63619bc1c661cee692d2f84c22951b3110)
|
||||
|
||||
Good Morning Everyone!
|
||||
|
||||
I hope everyone has had a great weekend, Are you guys enjoying e3 as much as I do ?
|
||||
|
||||
First let me start with something simple, because MSM has been reaching out to people for interviews and such.
|
||||
|
||||
We are not a collective, the term WE here is used as the "royal we", I just like the stock and others just happen to like the same stock. We also don't do politics, religion or anything else as all these things don't matter here, we just like the stock that's it. therefore there are no leaders or spokespersons.
|
||||
|
||||
The mod team has declined doing interviews at multiple occasions and will continue to do so until this is over.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/pijcimzr07571.png?width=557&format=png&auto=webp&s=0c3970f72b06e9e7ba7f6050d02cc25d736004f2)
|
||||
|
||||
the Reverse Repo's are looks to be related to GME
|
||||
|
||||
wrinklebrain [u/jaybaumyo](https://www.reddit.com/u/jaybaumyo/) wrote a thread [here](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nyqnqh/so_the_reverse_repos_are_definitely_related_to_gme/)
|
||||
|
||||
It shows how the reverse repo's seem to have a correlation between GME and the height of the repo's.
|
||||
|
||||
I've not personally had the chance to fully check this or see in how far the correlation goes, I do however remember that there was a rule change where bigger guys (SHF banks etc) could no longer use "junk bonds" as collateral, so this is why we might see an increase in the Reverse Repo, or maybe not, if you know more about this feel free to jump in that thread and help find out what's going on.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/7nfjkkey27571.png?width=960&format=png&auto=webp&s=d39667794b4c91de733f07c733e323db92b69f3d)
|
||||
|
||||
The reverse Repo's have another all time high, 547 billion... damn kenny that's actually impressive.
|
||||
|
||||
There have also been some other threads made finding some sort of correlation between reverse repo's/crypto's/GME
|
||||
|
||||
which you can find [here](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nz0fsz/i_found_a_correlation_in_why_reverse_repo_rates/?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share)
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/3vb9txy237571.png?width=960&format=png&auto=webp&s=62a75cffe1dede500734d0adf7f6ed4ce6940a27)
|
||||
|
||||
Short Volume Ratio Update
|
||||
|
||||
All thanks for this goes to AntihalationGod, he's been compiling public data and is kind enough to share this with everyone.
|
||||
|
||||
<https://twitter.com/annihil4tiongod/status/1403841990387720193?s=27>
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/qjdftlqh37571.png?width=4096&format=png&auto=webp&s=fc06397ee3900fc8597152763ed720d67bc6fa20)
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/rnqs7rkk37571.png?width=4096&format=png&auto=webp&s=c88b430d2f0ef7debe905fd95cb2148017a93ec5)
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/4trsjrxl37571.png?width=4096&format=png&auto=webp&s=602eca55301ac188c0fea017fc91de4cef29877e)
|
||||
|
||||
What is driving the t+21 cycles?
|
||||
|
||||
[u/criand](https://www.reddit.com/u/criand/) made a big thread [here](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/ny2ov4/a_revisit_to_net_capital_what_is_truly_driving/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf)
|
||||
|
||||
it goes into the t+21 cycle, what drives it how the ETF's fall into place with it etc.
|
||||
|
||||
I feel like giving work like this a TLDR version but eum.... brrrrr
|
||||
|
||||
Also there is a theory that this is what RC has figured out as well or at least thats what [this thread](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nycuk4/cohen_has_reached_the_same_conclusion_as_ucriands/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf) goes over
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/sf80m37m47571.png?width=960&format=png&auto=webp&s=ae2e622c8bf587d081a29bbfd51dbc3601cb37b6)
|
||||
|
||||
Voting
|
||||
|
||||
There is a thread going on [here](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nwv7vb/possible_evidence_of_manipulation_of_the_vote/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf) which goes into the difference of the voting we have seen this year in comparison to 2020, it shows that the 2020 was consistent, yet 2021 is not...
|
||||
|
||||
Again I know you can't see the total amount of votes on an 8k and with the current SEC probe we wont hear the actual numbers for a while so we'll just have to refer to the ol' reliable
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/1fk6kgyv57571.png?width=640&format=png&auto=webp&s=69a0be6b287fd8f7d4d8a491031b8aebb0393d4c)
|
||||
|
||||
Also [u/gr8sking](https://www.reddit.com/u/gr8sking/) did some quick maths
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/ijo10g9y57571.png?width=760&format=png&auto=webp&s=7b4abbad108e1bc832b3bd2f763ee6af71e9894e)
|
||||
|
||||
just something to keep in mind 😉
|
||||
|
||||
Also if you're new be sure to give [this thread](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/ny8mk8/the_infinity_squeeze_thesis_summary_and_breakdown/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf) a read, it goes over the basics and can help the new apes understand everything a bit better.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/fyu35fjs67571.png?width=554&format=png&auto=webp&s=620fdf65ec681f137c1571a2e7dadb63eadbabc2)
|
||||
|
||||
EXCELLENT!
|
||||
|
||||
Be friendly, help others!
|
||||
|
||||
as always we are here from all different walks of life and all different countries.
|
||||
|
||||
This doesn't matter as we are all apes in here, and apes are friends.
|
||||
|
||||
Doesn't matter if you're a silverback a chimp or a bonobo.
|
||||
|
||||
We help each other, we care for each other.
|
||||
|
||||
Ape don't fight ape, apes help other apes
|
||||
|
||||
this helps us weed out the shills really fast, as if everyone is helpful, the ones who aren't stand out.
|
||||
|
||||
remember the fundamentals of this company are great, so for the love of god if someone starts with trying to spread FUD, remind yourself of the fundamentals.
|
||||
|
||||
There is no sense of urgency, this will come when it comes, be a week, be it a month be it six.
|
||||
|
||||
We don't care, just be nice and lets make this community as Excellent as we can!
|
||||
|
||||
Remember one of the only ways to counter the Cointelpro we have seen is by being overly nice, so treat all the other apes as if you're dating and you wanna get to first base.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/7h05xepu67571.png?width=400&format=png&auto=webp&s=f5a4731f612cab20a8344eb50ffd80c08d5cd059)
|
||||
|
||||
remember none of this is financial advice, I'm so retarded I'm not allowed to go to the zoo 'cause they'll put me in the cage with the rest of my ape brothers.
|
||||
|
||||
If anything happens throughout the day we will be adding it here.
|
||||
|
||||
backups:
|
||||
|
||||
<https://twitter.com/rensole>
|
||||
|
||||
<https://twitter.com/PinkCatsOnAcid>
|
||||
|
||||
<https://twitter.com/RedChessQueen99>
|
||||
|
||||
<https://twitter.com/ByeTriangle>
|
||||
|
||||
<https://twitter.com/u_sharkbaitlol>
|
||||
|
||||
<https://twitter.com/BradduckF>
|
200
Daily-Synopsis-Archives/2021-06-15-Synopsis.md
Normal file
200
Daily-Synopsis-Archives/2021-06-15-Synopsis.md
Normal file
@ -0,0 +1,200 @@
|
||||
The Daily Stonk 06-15-2021
|
||||
==========================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/rensole](https://www.reddit.com/user/rensole/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/o09zbj/the_daily_stonk_06152021/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
[Daily News 🦍💎🙌🚀](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22Daily%20News%20%F0%9F%A6%8D%F0%9F%92%8E%F0%9F%99%8C%F0%9F%9A%80%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/rmalcqb96e571.png?width=1600&format=png&auto=webp&s=8c6d29bc82195f343c43194b73bf38c3fe2a68a0)
|
||||
|
||||
Good Morning San Diago,
|
||||
|
||||
I am Rensole and this is your daily news.
|
||||
|
||||
Does anyone smell that?
|
||||
|
||||
*insert flashy intro card*
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/rgcr8g2b6e571.png?width=680&format=png&auto=webp&s=1cd659e98a14ce6b929b148ad8cd696200013774)
|
||||
|
||||
First of all the high score of the day
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/wysr4y0o6e571.png?width=685&format=png&auto=webp&s=2f65627d729c41fe8f57ae8e3fac6928951eb83f)
|
||||
|
||||
Reverse Repo is currently sitting at 583 billion, breaking ATH for every day for the past week.
|
||||
|
||||
there is a lot of info in the comments of [this thread](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nzrtvz/daily_reverse_repo_update_0614_583892_b_new_record/), go out and read a bit, perhaps you can add to the conversation and grow a collective wrinkle!
|
||||
|
||||
The exponential floor
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/rvulw1b77e571.png?width=960&format=png&auto=webp&s=3acf4708ce1fc555928b26bddbcc002e59da2f28)
|
||||
|
||||
made by [u/JTH1](https://www.reddit.com/u/JTH1/) and his thread is [here](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nzvj68/0614_update_did_share_dilution_shift_the_floor/)
|
||||
|
||||
We don't know why the floor is currently not being followed, this could be for several different reasons, it could be a statistical outlier/anomaly, or possible that they are currently offering shares and this dilution can cause the statistic offset or something else entirely.
|
||||
|
||||
Regardless of what it is I'd love to know because this seemed to hold up significantly up until end of last week.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/zwrqdd6v7e571.png?width=828&format=png&auto=webp&s=9057f759177b427216be88f36e547db8f969593c)
|
||||
|
||||
Cassandra of Greek mythology is back.
|
||||
|
||||
Cassandra was astonishingly beautiful and blessed with the gift of foreseeing the future. Her curse was that no one believed her, a fact that weighed heavily on the destruction of Troy during the Trojan War.
|
||||
|
||||
Just like Dr. Burry foretold the crash of 2008 and in some ways the crash to come (DD on this is to follow soon), he was told by the SEC that he could no longer use twitter anymore and was offline for months. but it seems now that Gary Gensler is finally at the helm he was allowed to go back online.
|
||||
|
||||
Can't wait what this man has to say.
|
||||
|
||||
Ford Equity Research UPGRADES $GME from HODL to BUY.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/lzngh5ni8e571.png?width=1042&format=png&auto=webp&s=7c6f520dbe2c06d6ec1439f768005e553ab2ec86)
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/1m7km38j8e571.png?width=960&format=png&auto=webp&s=81511139cebafb286e9244aa6ce1280d8d043ab0)
|
||||
|
||||
Some people to look out for
|
||||
|
||||
thanks to [u/zedinstead](https://www.reddit.com/u/zedinstead/) for compiling this list.
|
||||
|
||||
Exponential Floor guy -- [u/JTH1](https://www.reddit.com/u/JTH1/)
|
||||
|
||||
Elliot Waves guy -- [u/possibly6](https://www.reddit.com/u/possibly6/)
|
||||
|
||||
Trading Sideways guy - [u/earthysoup](https://www.reddit.com/u/earthysoup/)
|
||||
|
||||
Gamma Spike girl -- [u/yelyah2](https://www.reddit.com/u/yelyah2/)
|
||||
|
||||
Daily Reverse Repo Update guy -- [u/pctracer](https://www.reddit.com/u/pctracer/)
|
||||
|
||||
Linear Regression girl - [u/PWNWTFBBQ](https://www.reddit.com/u/PWNWTFBBQ/)
|
||||
|
||||
Bloomberg Terminal guy - [u/Ravada](https://www.reddit.com/u/Ravada/)
|
||||
|
||||
Ape News Network guy - [u/mr_boost](https://www.reddit.com/u/mr_boost/)
|
||||
|
||||
Airborne Ape guy - [u/yerffejytnac](https://www.reddit.com/u/yerffejytnac/)
|
||||
|
||||
Camera Pointed at Citadel guy - [u/hapilly_unemployed](https://www.reddit.com/u/hapilly_unemployed/)
|
||||
|
||||
Pickle guy - [u/gherkinit](https://www.reddit.com/u/gherkinit/)
|
||||
|
||||
FTD Cycle guy - [u/criand](https://www.reddit.com/u/criand/)
|
||||
|
||||
SEC FOIA guy - [u/Leenixus](https://www.reddit.com/u/Leenixus/)
|
||||
|
||||
Confirmation Bias guy - [u/HomeDepotHank69](https://www.reddit.com/u/HomeDepotHank69/)
|
||||
|
||||
Daisy Ridley Not Selling guy - [u/aroflip](https://www.reddit.com/u/aroflip/)
|
||||
|
||||
Diamantenhände guy -- [u/DerGurkenraspler](https://www.reddit.com/u/DerGurkenraspler/) (currently [u/Parsnip](https://www.reddit.com/u/Parsnip/))
|
||||
|
||||
See You All Tomorrow guy - [u/mmokay_north](https://www.reddit.com/u/mmokay_north/)
|
||||
|
||||
Nightly Fireside Chat guy - [u/RallyInTheNorth](https://www.reddit.com/u/RallyInTheNorth/)
|
||||
|
||||
No Stupid Questions guy - [u/QuantumIdeal](https://www.reddit.com/u/QuantumIdeal/)
|
||||
|
||||
Counter DD guy - [u/dentisttft](https://www.reddit.com/u/dentisttft/)
|
||||
|
||||
Dank Meme guy - [u/ButtFarm69](https://www.reddit.com/u/ButtFarm69/)
|
||||
|
||||
Daily Discussion Chaos guy - [u/scrollwheeler](https://www.reddit.com/u/scrollwheeler/)
|
||||
|
||||
Morphing Kenny guy - [u/MrFerno](https://www.reddit.com/u/MrFerno/)
|
||||
|
||||
Old Commercial guy - [u/RiverJumper84](https://www.reddit.com/u/RiverJumper84/)
|
||||
|
||||
Narrator guy - [u/Doom_Douche](https://www.reddit.com/u/Doom_Douche/)
|
||||
|
||||
Soundtrack guy - [u/BodySurfDan](https://www.reddit.com/u/BodySurfDan/)
|
||||
|
||||
Song in Comments of the Daily Stonk guy - [u/MacTheKn1f3](https://www.reddit.com/u/MacTheKn1f3/)
|
||||
|
||||
Poem guy - [u/F4hype](https://www.reddit.com/u/F4hype/)
|
||||
|
||||
Quant guy 1 - [u/xpurplexamyx](https://www.reddit.com/u/xpurplexamyx/)
|
||||
|
||||
Quant guy 2 - [u/myplayprofile](https://www.reddit.com/u/myplayprofile/)
|
||||
|
||||
These are people who contribute to the community, but these are not moderators, I'd still say check them out, Superstonk is here because of the contributions of others, one ape helping another.
|
||||
|
||||
We would'nt be here if it weren't for them <3
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/uv16aeyl9e571.png?width=640&format=png&auto=webp&s=3bdf5136c65ece797b5ece24e132e8c3bbf59910)
|
||||
|
||||
An update on our favorite missing rule, SR-DTC-2021-005
|
||||
|
||||
Lots of people have been filing a FOIA (freedom of information act) questions into the 005, I'd say keep going guys show them you've not forgotten.
|
||||
|
||||
This got delisted in march and would've been back shortly.... fast forward 3 months later and it's still not here.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/tk2ujza9ae571.png?width=640&format=png&auto=webp&s=8ce475338279949f75fee043058964f65f5968f9)
|
||||
|
||||
Interviews and such
|
||||
|
||||
Now onto a little bit of the beat and path.
|
||||
|
||||
As many of you have undoubtedly have seen by now MSM is stepping up their game, and even though I like how some of them finally report on GME and other stocks this does not mean I trust them.
|
||||
|
||||
The same goes for influencers or streamers who suddenly are accepting interviews on MSM for clout, so let me be clear about this from the get go, [r/Superstonk](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/) has no leaders, we don't have a spokesperson and we do not do interviews until after the squeeze.
|
||||
|
||||
This is for a variety of reasons, but ones that are prevalent for me are simple:
|
||||
|
||||
1-This is a round table, all apes are equal and would not dare to speak for anyone
|
||||
|
||||
2- they'll most likely look for "gotcha" moments to try and hurt us and others
|
||||
|
||||
3- we can only speak for personal experiences not for others
|
||||
|
||||
4- and most likely the best reason why I wouldn't do any interviews (see image)
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/d32cipg8be571.png?width=680&format=png&auto=webp&s=78b078b33922780fd4887ccd5525e4f69df3011a)
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/ddlxrnbdbe571.png?width=554&format=png&auto=webp&s=ffb137c7c4205779f5a19a2ceff60b5432956488)
|
||||
|
||||
EXCELLENT!
|
||||
|
||||
Be friendly, help others!
|
||||
|
||||
as always we are here from all different walks of life and all different countries.
|
||||
|
||||
This doesn't matter as we are all apes in here, and apes are friends.
|
||||
|
||||
Doesn't matter if you're a silverback a chimp or a bonobo.
|
||||
|
||||
We help each other, we care for each other.
|
||||
|
||||
Ape don't fight ape, apes help other apes
|
||||
|
||||
this helps us weed out the shills really fast, as if everyone is helpful, the ones who aren't stand out.
|
||||
|
||||
remember the fundamentals of this company are great, so for the love of god if someone starts with trying to spread FUD, remind yourself of the fundamentals.
|
||||
|
||||
There is no sense of urgency, this will come when it comes, be a week, be it a month be it six.
|
||||
|
||||
We don't care, just be nice and lets make this community as Excellent as we can!
|
||||
|
||||
Remember one of the only ways to counter the Cointelpro we have seen is by being overly nice, so treat all the other apes as if you're dating and you wanna get to first base.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/klo7y2ifbe571.png?width=400&format=png&auto=webp&s=231c0fb3223c820842202d58bd266c8793fdf16f)
|
||||
|
||||
remember none of this is financial advice, I'm so retarded I'm not allowed to go to the zoo 'cause they'll put me in the cage with the rest of my ape brothers.
|
||||
|
||||
If anything happens throughout the day we will be adding it here.
|
||||
|
||||
backups:
|
||||
|
||||
<https://twitter.com/rensole>
|
||||
|
||||
<https://twitter.com/PinkCatsOnAcid>
|
||||
|
||||
<https://twitter.com/RedChessQueen99>
|
||||
|
||||
<https://twitter.com/ByeTriangle>
|
||||
|
||||
<https://twitter.com/u_sharkbaitlol>
|
||||
|
||||
<https://twitter.com/BradduckF>
|
148
Daily-Synopsis-Archives/2021-06-16-Synopsis.md
Normal file
148
Daily-Synopsis-Archives/2021-06-16-Synopsis.md
Normal file
@ -0,0 +1,148 @@
|
||||
The Daily Stonk 06-16-2021
|
||||
==========================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/rensole](https://www.reddit.com/user/rensole/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/o10ltc/the_daily_stonk_06162021/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
[Daily News 🦍💎🙌🚀](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22Daily%20News%20%F0%9F%A6%8D%F0%9F%92%8E%F0%9F%99%8C%F0%9F%9A%80%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/v2cwv7i0dl571.png?width=1600&format=png&auto=webp&s=7a0314497ec2f2be33fa6e4963c2578debac0bcd)
|
||||
|
||||
Good Morning San Diago,
|
||||
|
||||
I am Rensole and this is your daily news.
|
||||
|
||||
Does anyone smell that?
|
||||
|
||||
*insert flashy intro card*
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/uljellh2dl571.png?width=680&format=png&auto=webp&s=69b1bc04b2df95353f08ccd90dd041153d859223)
|
||||
|
||||
The Reverse repos
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/zyzn29f9dl571.png?width=640&format=png&auto=webp&s=73d7dfef856590820243365d4070db0278802085)
|
||||
|
||||
509 billion, not the ATH we've seen before but back to the levels of... well last week.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/fs1wy7andl571.png?width=8226&format=png&auto=webp&s=1ccba8adeac1adf0951be9bb358fb2a4f64b661d)
|
||||
|
||||
made by u/JTH1
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/jt1fu6wwdl571.png?width=828&format=png&auto=webp&s=b98063b9f316d2893ba51862d7e30e97e3a6d1b0)
|
||||
|
||||
Obv still rising even though we have a "dip" thanks to u/*Badtothebone*
|
||||
|
||||
Also it seems we may have broke this guy
|
||||
|
||||
<https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZB_jobcKY5Y&ab_channel=RichIrvin>
|
||||
|
||||

|
||||
|
||||
0:00
|
||||
|
||||
0:12
|
||||
|
||||
Bloomberg terminal drop!
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/gufkwttlel571.png?width=1916&format=png&auto=webp&s=c0b369e53623b249ea45d46ab0f31a97b9dd0277)
|
||||
|
||||
<https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/o0ogwo/15062021_gme_bloomberg_terminal_information/>
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/txrhw6eoel571.png?width=975&format=png&auto=webp&s=4fac22643240643f3c2e1789bcaabe75f13a5995)
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/ol2oxseefl571.png?width=640&format=png&auto=webp&s=36e2ba970b1edbd76733d320d74c233c22a43c53)
|
||||
|
||||
The 005
|
||||
|
||||
I've been seeing a lot of things involving the 005, but remember this dropped late last night, so give it some time, just like last time we see a lot of oh "OH NO" reactions with a data dump, but give it time and we can analyse what the document says and in what way.
|
||||
|
||||
If you've offered your feedback to the 005 on their site, do know that your email is now public, there has been a thread made [here](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/o0n8li/apes_who_wrote_regarding_the_rule_005_your_email/) give it a read to make sure all your data is secure.
|
||||
|
||||
the most important thing is, we can let gamgam out of the cage again
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/o9y9an69fl571.png?width=960&format=png&auto=webp&s=13f77ff195afd18479e355649db5b37849ed445f)
|
||||
|
||||
The SEC meeting
|
||||
|
||||
SEC Announces Annual Regulatory Agenda "Transparency around stock buybacks, short sale disclosure, securities-based swaps ownership, and the stock loan market"
|
||||
|
||||
<https://www.sec.gov/news/press-release/2021-99>
|
||||
|
||||
And per final I'd like to close with this, Detective [u/buttfarm69](https://www.reddit.com/u/buttfarm69/) made this statement and I couldn't agree more, no matter what happens we are all individuals, no leaders no nothing.
|
||||
|
||||
I like the stock
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/odqlk42bgl571.png?width=640&format=png&auto=webp&s=d7008c557b49346040f4cae0d61754a4ed60fa0e)
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/kko6lrndgl571.png?width=554&format=png&auto=webp&s=bf644c020e9c50b8a82594fddc6f587c129af408)
|
||||
|
||||
EXCELLENT!
|
||||
|
||||
Be friendly, help others!
|
||||
|
||||
as always we are here from all different walks of life and all different countries.
|
||||
|
||||
This doesn't matter as we are all apes in here, and apes are friends.
|
||||
|
||||
Doesn't matter if you're a silverback a chimp or a bonobo.
|
||||
|
||||
We help each other, we care for each other.
|
||||
|
||||
Ape don't fight ape, apes help other apes
|
||||
|
||||
this helps us weed out the shills really fast, as if everyone is helpful, the ones who aren't stand out.
|
||||
|
||||
remember the fundamentals of this company are great, so for the love of god if someone starts with trying to spread FUD, remind yourself of the fundamentals.
|
||||
|
||||
There is no sense of urgency, this will come when it comes, be a week, be it a month be it six.
|
||||
|
||||
We don't care, just be nice and lets make this community as Excellent as we can!
|
||||
|
||||
Remember one of the only ways to counter the Cointelpro we have seen is by being overly nice, so treat all the other apes as if you're dating and you wanna get to first base.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/8n15yn4hgl571.png?width=400&format=png&auto=webp&s=4ae759ff46c04f80d70d8f8b0a5d16a0fab76f76)
|
||||
|
||||
remember none of this is financial advice, I'm so retarded I'm not allowed to go to the zoo 'cause they'll put me in the cage with the rest of my ape brothers.
|
||||
|
||||
If anything happens throughout the day we will be adding it here.
|
||||
|
||||
backups:
|
||||
|
||||
<https://twitter.com/rensole>
|
||||
|
||||
<https://twitter.com/PinkCatsOnAcid>
|
||||
|
||||
<https://twitter.com/RedChessQueen99>
|
||||
|
||||
<https://twitter.com/ByeTriangle>
|
||||
|
||||
<https://twitter.com/u_sharkbaitlol>
|
||||
|
||||
<https://twitter.com/BradduckF>
|
||||
|
||||
(p.s. yes I'm aware that today there isn't a lot of stuff but I'm neck deep in researching stuff)
|
||||
|
||||
Edit 1:
|
||||
|
||||
[u/Criand](https://www.reddit.com/u/Criand/) made a DD in [this thread](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/o0scoy/the_bigger_short_how_2008_is_repeating_at_a_much/)
|
||||
|
||||
it goes over the fact that we are currently facing the same exact problems we faced in 2008 but in a much greater magnitude, aka The BIGGER short.
|
||||
|
||||
Edit 2:
|
||||
|
||||
[AnnihilationGod](https://twitter.com/Annihil4tionGod) was kind enough to analyse the traffic once more!
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/07uuc3aujl571.png?width=4096&format=png&auto=webp&s=dd1a98fef302ce0f588eca34c83b102327980ec3)
|
||||
|
||||
Edit 3:
|
||||
|
||||
Thanks to ape AndyLeeck, he found out that Citadel Luxembourg has been dissolved effective Apr/30/2021
|
||||
|
||||
source: [https://gd.lu/resa/2mng1G](https://t.co/ta7pTq0Ij6?amp=1)
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/wm7udo27ll571.png?width=828&format=png&auto=webp&s=36e2584d41113b847e459ed6cdd4c666000631db)
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/pvxnsv08ll571.png?width=828&format=png&auto=webp&s=2f880a720b75f78e9d46c0cdd49a0a999c7fae53)
|
162
Daily-Synopsis-Archives/2021-06-17-Synopsis.md
Normal file
162
Daily-Synopsis-Archives/2021-06-17-Synopsis.md
Normal file
@ -0,0 +1,162 @@
|
||||
The Daily Stonk 06-17-2021
|
||||
==========================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/rensole](https://www.reddit.com/user/rensole/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/o1t1sr/the_daily_stonk_06172021/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
[Daily News 🦍💎🙌🚀](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22Daily%20News%20%F0%9F%A6%8D%F0%9F%92%8E%F0%9F%99%8C%F0%9F%9A%80%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/exasr6e3hs571.png?width=1600&format=png&auto=webp&s=e89f0dccb1266fb57b4fd0bd7aba52e9ad5b14fe)
|
||||
|
||||
Good Morning San Diago,
|
||||
|
||||
I am Rensole and this is your daily news.
|
||||
|
||||
Does anyone smell that?
|
||||
|
||||
*insert flashy intro card*
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/zjtm9v35hs571.png?width=680&format=png&auto=webp&s=87ea89c6b69f9efd5b9a83269d51015b04b403fb)
|
||||
|
||||
The Reverse repo's
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/hs0r0frahs571.png?width=960&format=png&auto=webp&s=637524d1bb099bf73872a755f7acecaeaea98ed7)
|
||||
|
||||
The reverse repo seems to be up once more, to 520 billion, with 53 parties involved.
|
||||
|
||||
Jpow also told us yesterday there was "totally nothing to worry about" but more on that later.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/p0ds0tlois571.png?width=960&format=png&auto=webp&s=a86201926b361932e4449c71dcfcb9466e7341b1)
|
||||
|
||||
Also a list of participants has been found here: <https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/o1rzgw/rrp_list/h22g31h/?context=3>
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/tw12a49nhs571.png?width=8240&format=png&auto=webp&s=97693d3a6390221d6e355706ffc96e9960ec28e8)
|
||||
|
||||
The exponential floor, the price seems to be marching sideways for the past three days, this can indicate a lot of things, I would advise checking out [u/JTH1](https://www.reddit.com/u/JTH1/)'s thread [here](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/o1fbhw/0616_update_floor_guys_log_stonkdate_259_pretty/) for more information.
|
||||
|
||||
Some people have indicated this may be like the "death of a thousand papercuts" dd we've seen here.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/yjl98ga8is571.png?width=1066&format=png&auto=webp&s=15ed33b01506fb721bb896d22b4ba4c0c17a184a)
|
||||
|
||||
There also seems to be some indescrepencies with the open/closing prices in the market for the past few months. I've been in chatrooms were we talked about the fact that it's ending on 00 or 0010 is a statistical outlier, because it happened way to often it was weird for us because if you looked across the board most stocks would end in random numbers, and not on a nice round 0010.
|
||||
|
||||
[u/LongTimeGamer](https://www.reddit.com/u/LongTimeGamer/) did a solid DD [here](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/o1gn2u/i_processed_16_years_of_data_across_8_stocks_to/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf) were they analysed the past 16 years of 8 stocks to show that the closing price of these is a weird happening as this isn't normal, be sure to check out his thread.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/6m4yca2ijs571.png?width=641&format=png&auto=webp&s=c4ebdd0c76264cb53e13c1072f8b00ed14da4f43)
|
||||
|
||||
To 005 or Not to 005, that is the question
|
||||
|
||||
There also have been some questions since yesterday if the 005 was in effect or not.
|
||||
|
||||
The short answer is, Yes it is.
|
||||
|
||||
check out [this thread](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/o1fywn/me_again_according_to_john_at_the_dtcc_005_is_in/?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share) which shows correspondence between [u/OkGas9917](https://www.reddit.com/u/OkGas9917/) and the DTCC, and they themselves state that it's in effect .
|
||||
|
||||
Bitcoin address
|
||||
|
||||
I got tagged in [this thread](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/o1fi1v/sent_this_today_to_someone_and_we_closed_green/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf) yesterday, but I honestly don't know enough about crypto give any help here, so if there are apes here who are good with that sort of stuff be sure to jump in and try to give them a hand.
|
||||
|
||||
It seems that there is a wallet address that has some correlation with the price movements of GME, but again I know jack about crypto.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/na3r31heks571.png?width=1533&format=png&auto=webp&s=84689090590c72516e60e5e24308b3294aed913e)
|
||||
|
||||
Remember Kenny, you always have options
|
||||
|
||||
[u/Veschor](https://www.reddit.com/u/Veschor/) had scraped some data off of fintel.io data for all filings under 3/31, crosswalk it against SECs EDGAR db for data quality. be sure to check out [his thread here](https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/comments/o1fqxi/gme_options_data_dashboard_for_reporting_period/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf), I'm not entirely sure what this means but I believe they may have doubled all the shares outstanding by the looks of it... or I'm reading this wrong.
|
||||
|
||||
But it seems that kenny and others need about 51 million shares in order to cover, which... they can't lol.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/q63d32gels571.png?width=755&format=png&auto=webp&s=604d237824bcf97a956d2fb794eaa8af430f531a)
|
||||
|
||||
The FED
|
||||
|
||||
Jpow held a press conference yesterday which boiled down to the following points:
|
||||
|
||||
- we are in unprecedented times
|
||||
|
||||
- due to that we can't make any plans or projections
|
||||
|
||||
- But inflation shouldn't be that bad ACCORDING TO OUR PROJECTIONS
|
||||
|
||||
- Jpow gets a questions, then bullshits around the subject for a few minutes and moves on
|
||||
|
||||
So what really got me annoyed with this yesterday were a couple of things
|
||||
|
||||
Mainly the fact that he says you can't have a model or a projection for the coming times but moments later refer to their own model and projection saying "it wont be that bad"... so which one is it Jpow? you can either have a model or not.
|
||||
|
||||
Also the inflation is now projected at 3.4% instead of 2, but it's "transitionary" ... this is like seeing my cousin vinny answering tough questions "forget about it"
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/rc777zqzms571.png?width=640&format=png&auto=webp&s=08e0196e9bf6241791dfb24b3af24e7cceb56f74)
|
||||
|
||||
For those unaware the phrase "whistling past the graveyard" means acting tough while being scared on the inside, which I'm sure they are, even from a non stock perspective it seems like they screwed the pooch and are now realising that maybe printing 40% of all the money may have been a bad idea.
|
||||
|
||||
As some of you who have been reading my shitty writing for a while may know I love the art of war, because it gives simple yet effective rules of psychological war.
|
||||
|
||||
There was a thread made here <https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/o19ak7/the_bigger_short_srdtc2021005_the_return_of_dr/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf>
|
||||
|
||||
And it gives some explenations how the art of war may be implemented right here, so... unleash your own Gordon Gecko and give it a read.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/zbp8qud0os571.png?width=554&format=png&auto=webp&s=f71180d575bc8cfac10a68986213041e814ceac7)
|
||||
|
||||
EXCELLENT!
|
||||
|
||||
Be friendly, help others!
|
||||
|
||||
as always we are here from all different walks of life and all different countries.
|
||||
|
||||
This doesn't matter as we are all apes in here, and apes are friends.
|
||||
|
||||
Doesn't matter if you're a silverback a chimp or a bonobo.
|
||||
|
||||
We help each other, we care for each other.
|
||||
|
||||
Ape don't fight ape, apes help other apes
|
||||
|
||||
this helps us weed out the shills really fast, as if everyone is helpful, the ones who aren't stand out.
|
||||
|
||||
remember the fundamentals of this company are great, so for the love of god if someone starts with trying to spread FUD, remind yourself of the fundamentals.
|
||||
|
||||
There is no sense of urgency, this will come when it comes, be a week, be it a month be it six.
|
||||
|
||||
We don't care, just be nice and lets make this community as Excellent as we can!
|
||||
|
||||
Remember one of the only ways to counter the Cointelpro we have seen is by being overly nice, so treat all the other apes as if you're dating and you wanna get to first base.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/y6icose2os571.png?width=400&format=png&auto=webp&s=15785bd18085bf55f1f1b9067d1a8d877d7d1ca2)
|
||||
|
||||
remember none of this is financial advice, I'm so retarded I'm not allowed to go to the zoo 'cause they'll put me in the cage with the rest of my ape brothers.
|
||||
|
||||
If anything happens throughout the day we will be adding it here.
|
||||
|
||||
backups:
|
||||
|
||||
<https://twitter.com/rensole>
|
||||
|
||||
<https://twitter.com/PinkCatsOnAcid>
|
||||
|
||||
<https://twitter.com/RedChessQueen99>
|
||||
|
||||
<https://twitter.com/ByeTriangle>
|
||||
|
||||
<https://twitter.com/u_sharkbaitlol>
|
||||
|
||||
<https://twitter.com/BradduckF>
|
||||
|
||||
Edit 1:
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/6mjxnjxfgt571.png?width=4096&format=png&auto=webp&s=942e2bc09e69aaf4b55d78de37e7be29748c07e0)
|
||||
|
||||
Sort volume of the past week, thanks to [@Annihil4tionGod](https://twitter.com/Annihil4tionGod) on twitter.
|
||||
|
||||
Also hmmm
|
||||
|
||||
<https://www.reuters.com/business/meme-stock-prices-may-not-properly-reflect-demand-nyse-president-2021-06-16/>
|
||||
|
||||
"In some of the meme stocks that we've seen, or stocks that have a high level of retail participation, the vast majority of order flow can trade off of exchanges, which is problematic," said Stacey Cunningham, president of Intercontinental Exchange Inc's [(ICE.N)](https://www.reuters.com/companies/ICE.N) NYSE.
|
||||
|
||||
"That price formation is not really reflective of what supply and demand is," she said at a conference hosted by CNBC.
|
||||
|
||||
ORLY
|
195
Daily-Synopsis-Archives/2021-06-18-Synopsis.md
Normal file
195
Daily-Synopsis-Archives/2021-06-18-Synopsis.md
Normal file
@ -0,0 +1,195 @@
|
||||
The Daily Stonk 06-18-2021
|
||||
==========================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/rensole](https://www.reddit.com/user/rensole/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/o2l26e/the_daily_stonk_06182021/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
[Daily News 🦍💎🙌🚀](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22Daily%20News%20%F0%9F%A6%8D%F0%9F%92%8E%F0%9F%99%8C%F0%9F%9A%80%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/vlqwo8cvmz571.png?width=1600&format=png&auto=webp&s=eeb70615d01a05c5aca6272357fe9868f856fef4)
|
||||
|
||||
Good Morning San Diago,
|
||||
|
||||
I am Rensole and this is your daily news.
|
||||
|
||||
Does anyone smell that?
|
||||
|
||||
*insert flashy intro card*
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/rpbnj4mxmz571.png?width=680&format=png&auto=webp&s=96d74672ba1b22687f2c675838bb2f0efd41b3f2)
|
||||
|
||||
The Reverse repo's
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/gqfgmsn8nz571.png?width=693&format=png&auto=webp&s=173ec398c840f498f2e5d4b5fe9e062bf00614fc)
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/c8zteoyuoz571.png?width=666&format=png&auto=webp&s=948d2ba2dd4db2670a649c5a138ca67bc2bd992c)
|
||||
|
||||
Nothing to see here, just 250 billion extra in RRP's
|
||||
|
||||
Now there still has been some confusion as to what RRP's are or what they do so I've looked for some DD's and stumbled across some.
|
||||
|
||||
[Thread one](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/o08rmm/whats_the_deal_with_reverse_repos_anyway/)
|
||||
|
||||
[Thread two](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/o28xhx/whats_the_deal_with_reverse_repos_anyway_dd_part/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf)
|
||||
|
||||
[Thread three](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/o1thia/reverse_repo_can_we_stop_saying_cash_is_a/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf)
|
||||
|
||||
On that same account, wtf is the FED doing? well got to love our local wrinkly brained people:<https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/o1y03k/wtf_is_the_fed_doing/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf>
|
||||
|
||||
Exponential floor
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/ygujgsrwoz571.png?width=960&format=png&auto=webp&s=e0d7eeaee3f4b487d4302406b98ee7aee3f219bf)
|
||||
|
||||
thanks to u/JTH1
|
||||
|
||||
in his words:
|
||||
|
||||
06/17 UPDATE: Some have been asking why I keep posting these charts. My rationale is that the daily low have been following a long predictable pattern in a similar manner as T+X and Elliot waves. This tells me that the daily low can somehow be used as a metric to gauge future price movements.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/05o39qh4pz571.png?width=532&format=png&auto=webp&s=fd410e5da7c66c02620decde41fa8ec498d1e469)
|
||||
|
||||
A round of applause for the NEW Vice President of Private Label and Global Sourcing! Kevin Kennedy!
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/ssb52sibpz571.png?width=828&format=png&auto=webp&s=852fd3e4950aa9a1d9d0f348fccec6aeb79bff5b)
|
||||
|
||||
Everything remains speculative however until we've received confirmation from the exchanges that it's done, just like the ATM share offering, we think it's done, yet we are waiting for official confirmation on that before we can do anything.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/ma8czrotqz571.png?width=720&format=png&auto=webp&s=4e4a83de94c3f019b82c3fcf8687fbd11bcc2d8d)
|
||||
|
||||
Also as a side note, the EDGAR system is out today, this means the markets are still open but the EDGAR filing system (used for the forms) wont be receiving updates today and will be updated again on monday, the Edgar system is were we would normally find the 13k forms and stuff like that.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/pectsz85qz571.png?width=960&format=png&auto=webp&s=fa7076944ddf604cb3fc301b731c92dcc45aea4f)
|
||||
|
||||
[NYSE president admitted Dark pool exchanges are problematic](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/o25oi1/nyse_president_admitted_dark_pool_exchanges_are/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf)
|
||||
|
||||
Also [u/dlauer](https://www.reddit.com/u/dlauer/)'s full segment on CNBC because CNBC likes to cut parts away.
|
||||
|
||||
Thanks to [u/ydnar](https://www.reddit.com/u/ydnar/)
|
||||
|
||||
<https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/o2958m/our_boy_udlauers_full_segment_on_cnbc/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf>
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/wj29m92dsz571.png?width=473&format=png&auto=webp&s=42b89cd53e00ec14e2588c48df37c5c299b61b2b)
|
||||
|
||||
Ryan Cohen has bought shares
|
||||
|
||||
This is pure speculation at this point, we didn't receive a 13f filing stating he did, we didn't receive any formal notice from GameStop.
|
||||
|
||||
So everything regarding this is currently speculation as it could be easily explained away as a glitch.
|
||||
|
||||
There is an entire thread [here](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/o22pn0/stop_the_misinfo_ryan_cohen_has_not_bought_shares/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf)
|
||||
|
||||
The banks are down?
|
||||
|
||||
Seems the banks have been having some pretty red days in the past days, but lets take an outside view on this for once, there is a thread [here](https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/o2ajxm/if_the_fed_just_announced_theyll_raise_interest/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf) in [r/stocks](https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/) which could give us some more "conservative" information on this subject, because we are looking at this problem from one direction, lets get another POV and lets see if it could help perhaps bring a new wrinkle.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/05hgtf74sz571.png?width=1916&format=png&auto=webp&s=fb573dc880a06f315bb69780f569b263f1ebea88)
|
||||
|
||||
Bloomberg terminal drop!
|
||||
|
||||
<https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/o272h3/17062021_gme_bloomberg_terminal_information/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf>
|
||||
|
||||
The hidden shorts and the correlation of ftds
|
||||
|
||||
<https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/o1sggl/the_hidden_shorts_the_correlation_of_ftds_and/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf>
|
||||
|
||||
There are also a couple of other things I want to add but I need to take care of some IRL stuff and will be adding them in a bit later, sorry for the inconvenience <3
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/ja64w70ysz571.png?width=554&format=png&auto=webp&s=cc483317bbec7a3df139f6853447d6be28a8429f)
|
||||
|
||||
EXCELLENT!
|
||||
|
||||
Be friendly, help others!
|
||||
|
||||
as always we are here from all different walks of life and all different countries.
|
||||
|
||||
This doesn't matter as we are all apes in here, and apes are friends.
|
||||
|
||||
Doesn't matter if you're a silverback a chimp or a bonobo.
|
||||
|
||||
We help each other, we care for each other.
|
||||
|
||||
Ape don't fight ape, apes help other apes
|
||||
|
||||
this helps us weed out the shills really fast, as if everyone is helpful, the ones who aren't stand out.
|
||||
|
||||
remember the fundamentals of this company are great, so for the love of god if someone starts with trying to spread FUD, remind yourself of the fundamentals.
|
||||
|
||||
There is no sense of urgency, this will come when it comes, be a week, be it a month be it six.
|
||||
|
||||
We don't care, just be nice and lets make this community as Excellent as we can!
|
||||
|
||||
Remember one of the only ways to counter the Cointelpro we have seen is by being overly nice, so treat all the other apes as if you're dating and you wanna get to first base.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/doww5nvzsz571.png?width=400&format=png&auto=webp&s=b883cce7d9c03a1b9824cb7cc7c4411b5f798085)
|
||||
|
||||
remember none of this is financial advice, I'm so retarded I'm not allowed to go to the zoo 'cause they'll put me in the cage with the rest of my ape brothers.
|
||||
|
||||
If anything happens throughout the day we will be adding it here.
|
||||
|
||||
backups:
|
||||
|
||||
<https://twitter.com/rensole>
|
||||
|
||||
<https://twitter.com/PinkCatsOnAcid>
|
||||
|
||||
<https://twitter.com/RedChessQueen99>
|
||||
|
||||
<https://twitter.com/ByeTriangle>
|
||||
|
||||
<https://twitter.com/u_sharkbaitlol>
|
||||
|
||||
<https://twitter.com/BradduckF>
|
||||
|
||||
Edit: so finally have the time to finish this baby
|
||||
|
||||
first of all the update from [@Annihil4tionGod](https://twitter.com/Annihil4tionGod)
|
||||
|
||||
Short Volume Ratio Update 17. June 2021 AND a journey back in time: Short Volume Ratio Data from CBOE in 6 month timeframe since 2014. [#GME](https://twitter.com/hashtag/GME?src=hashtag_click) [#AMC](https://twitter.com/hashtag/AMC?src=hashtag_click) [#SVR](https://twitter.com/hashtag/SVR?src=hashtag_click) Have a great day! 1/8
|
||||
|
||||
<https://twitter.com/Annihil4tionGod/status/1405690619218087937?s=20>
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/lwlcoirlwz571.png?width=4096&format=png&auto=webp&s=4d8411b3a848674da4305445579572170cf03473)
|
||||
|
||||
2015
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/fawm928owz571.png?width=4096&format=png&auto=webp&s=30ccdbb129bd291efdbaf727de8fd515fbb48b78)
|
||||
|
||||
2016
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/ey1y7lxpwz571.png?width=4096&format=png&auto=webp&s=93d3c0d72d4657cf55a438c03472a31157c2e46d)
|
||||
|
||||
2017
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/thyqo4drwz571.png?width=4096&format=png&auto=webp&s=85ec29ca51dc6b95d3842a2d590daf7c5d2b34d6)
|
||||
|
||||
2018
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/w8t3mniswz571.png?width=4096&format=png&auto=webp&s=42b5afc1c7ca1aeec9cc2453417e68973ca3480b)
|
||||
|
||||
2019
|
||||
|
||||
Unfortunately I can't post all the images he's found due to Reddit's image limit But I'd advise checking out his twitter, <https://twitter.com/Annihil4tionGod>
|
||||
|
||||
AG is known for doing some awesome data dives and really digging deep into it.
|
||||
|
||||
Again Thank you Annihil4tionGod for your awesome contributions <3
|
||||
|
||||
AG's research into historic short data:
|
||||
|
||||
<https://twitter.com/Annihil4tionGod/status/1405635801745133576?s=20>
|
||||
|
||||
Showing that since 2010ish short daily volume has been at minimum 50% which is insane, how can someone look at the data and say "shorting is healthy", this is just there to destroy companies at this point.
|
||||
|
||||
More putts then shares?
|
||||
|
||||
Also [u/luxowoman](https://www.reddit.com/u/luxowoman/) has made a thread [here](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/o25onf/deep_otm_puts_total_update_strike_at_5_max/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf), showing that currently there is the ENTIRE FLOAT in puts of $12 and below, can someone wake up Gary from his nap? I know it's only his 10th week or so...
|
||||
|
||||
On todays holiday
|
||||
|
||||
The EDGAR system will be closed as will the SEC be closed, everything else is open.\
|
||||
<https://www.dtcc.com/-/media/Files/pdf/2021/6/17/a9015.pdf>
|
||||
|
||||
Alright that's it, Have an amazing weekend everyone!
|
@ -0,0 +1,12 @@
|
||||
Bottom of page 4 seems to say there's $720B worth of reverse repurchase agreements due within 2 weeks. Am I reading this right?
|
||||
===============================================================================================================================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/rayb15h0p](https://www.reddit.com/user/rayb15h0p/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nxtguc/bottom_of_page_4_seems_to_say_theres_720b_worth/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
[federalreserve.gov/releas...](https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h41/current/h41.pdf)
|
||||
|
||||
[Question ❓](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22Question%20%E2%9D%93%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
@ -0,0 +1,122 @@
|
||||
TL:DR -- I believe inflation is the match that has been lit that will light the fuse of our rocket.
|
||||
==================================================================================================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/Dismal-Jellyfish](https://www.reddit.com/user/Dismal-Jellyfish/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nxxwqt/tldr_i_believe_inflation_is_the_match_that_has/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
[DD 👨🔬](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22DD%20%F0%9F%91%A8%E2%80%8D%F0%9F%94%AC%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||
Good evening [r/Superstonk](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/), neighborhood jellyfish here! I would like to revisit the [CPI report](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nwodvj/the_consumer_price_index_climbed_06_from_the/) from yesterday while considering Reverse Repos. One thing that happened after the 5% number came out was that junk-bond yields fell to new record lows.
|
||||
|
||||
Two bonds I would like to share with you all are:
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/16ggnizq5r471.png?width=1472&format=png&auto=webp&s=2044efbec4edfd718975f23cbb46c5c57e488f21)
|
||||
|
||||
ICE BofA Single-B US High Yield Index Effective Yield @ 4.47% -.53% adjusted for inflation (Highly Speculative)
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/vzymxppt5r471.png?width=2917&format=png&auto=webp&s=98bb6f76625ee211c7c99a8f4b4c70ddcc65635f)
|
||||
|
||||
ICE BofA CCC & Lower US High Yield Index Effective Yield @ 6.83% 1.83% adjusted for inflation ("extremely speculative" to "default is imminent with little prospect for recovery")
|
||||
|
||||
Before we go any further, let's do some quick level setting on bonds and their risk descriptions:
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/rehqd3r06r471.png?width=1329&format=png&auto=webp&s=e0feef1958f5dc822e8374073ebe411d5c378373)
|
||||
|
||||
How the Credit Rating Agencies Classify Corporate Bonds and Loans by Credit Risk, or the Risk of Default.
|
||||
|
||||
0:00
|
||||
|
||||
3:44
|
||||
|
||||
Jenga!
|
||||
|
||||
Ok, so back on topic, [inflation came in at 5% yesterday](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nwodvj/the_consumer_price_index_climbed_06_from_the/). Single-B yields drop to 4.47% and CCC & lower hit 6.83%.
|
||||
|
||||
However, after adjusting for inflation, these bonds are yielding -.53% on the Single-B and 1.83% on CCC & lower.
|
||||
|
||||
Can we let that sink in for a moment? To get any sort of positive yield an investor must expose themselves to bonds rated "extremely speculative" to "default is imminent with little prospect for recovery". If they invest in the Single-B 'Highly Speculative' they lose principal capital to inflation!
|
||||
|
||||
Stopping here for a moment, I believe this to be a primary driver to the Reverse Repo market exploding---because remember, counterparties can give the Fed as much cash as they aren't able to place for 0%, while 'investing' in something 'AAA' related.
|
||||
|
||||
However, the money for these institutions have to place is continuing to grow at a good clip because:
|
||||
|
||||
- Yellen is still drawing down the packed General Account Mnuchin stockpiled for her---she wants it at [$500 billion by the end of June](https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/jy0011) (~ $174 billion more to go)
|
||||
|
||||
- local governments are getting Covid money [($350 billion included in the American Rescue Plan)](https://www.erienewsnow.com/story/44076717/local-governments-sift-through-treasurys-interim-guidance-on-spending-covid-aid)
|
||||
|
||||
- Central-bank asset purchases that continue chugging along [($120 billion per month)](https://www.wsj.com/articles/central-bank-will-begin-reducing-bond-purchases-well-before-raising-interest-rates-powell-says-11618421656)
|
||||
|
||||
In theory, all of this (~$644 billion) could end up in Reverse Repo. Add that to what they are already sheltering ($547 billion) and we could see the Reverse Repo market hit $1.191 trillion.
|
||||
|
||||
Ok Jellyfish, but what does this hypothetical reverse repo number have anything to do with CPI, and how the heck does it tie to GME?
|
||||
|
||||
First, even before all of this talk of inflation, the buying power of the dollar has gone down over time.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/u1sromf58r471.png?width=2340&format=png&auto=webp&s=6f640c25b1be662e4077aea3d2a30889cab41095)
|
||||
|
||||
It goes down, down...
|
||||
|
||||
Next, remember those ICE BofA CCC & Lower rated bonds we looked at up top? Those are the only bonds available for US corporate bonds whose average yield is above the rate of inflation.
|
||||
|
||||
Everything else currently has negative real yields, where the purchasing power of capital (remember this has already been taking a hit the last 50 years) is further obliterated by inflation, to the point these yields are just too low to effectively compensate for the loss of purchasing power, especially for the wildly risky assets and substantial risk that would have to be purchased to earn said yield.
|
||||
|
||||
Let's imagine for a moment that inflation *only* holds at 5% for the rest of the year (ha!) and comes back down to that 2ish% the Fed is PROMISING will happen. Whoever makes this investment is still *down in real terms since bonds purchased at today's rates (unless you are okay with investments only in "extremely speculative" to "default is imminent with little prospect for recovery" assets) because yields are below that of inflation*.
|
||||
|
||||
Viewed through this lens, one can say the Reverse Repo markets are being used as intended and not abused. But now inflation has been unleashed, and a permanent loss in purchasing power is in store for anyone who is buying bonds that aren't *"extremely speculative" to "default is imminent with little prospect for recovery". Everything else is getting a haircut from the current rate of inflation, and this isn't coming back.*
|
||||
|
||||
This brings me back to how this could tie to GME and begins the 'speculation' parts of this post.
|
||||
|
||||
Ok, we have established that the counterparties in the reverse repo market still have ~$644 billion or more coming their way that will have to be placed somewhere.
|
||||
|
||||
Remember, they can't just sit on this cash as the dollar is losing buying power (as we have seen above), the cash would get eaten by inflation, and it is a liability for them---since they must pay interest on client cash.
|
||||
|
||||
So I believe it is safe to assume that most (if not all) of the incoming cash will continue to make its way to the overnight Reverse Repo market. But what about cash that had been deployed to bonds on the balance sheet that are now getting its lunch eaten by inflation (as we established above with the adjusted for inflation rates)?
|
||||
|
||||
On April 7, [The Wallstreet Journal](https://www.wsj.com/articles/mall-owner-explores-debt-restructuring-for-new-yorks-largest-shopping-center-11617830147) reported that Destiny USA's owner, Pyramid Management Group, hired representation to look into restructuring the mall's debt, which includes Commercial Mortgage-Backed Securities (CMBS) and municipal securities known as PILOTs (Payments In-Lieu of Property Taxes). I don't know much about PILOTs but I only bring it up because the PILOT debt is senior to the larger of Destiny USA's two CMBS.
|
||||
|
||||
These two debt issues represent a total of roughly $716 million in outstanding principal ($286 Million in PILOT and $430 million in CMBS).
|
||||
|
||||
However, appraisers lowered the mall's valuation to just $203 million. That is not even enough to even cover the $286 million in PILOT bonds (which would get paid first!), leaving CMBS investors holding the bag. Consequently, their bonds have been [downgraded (from BB to B)](https://www.syracuse.com/business/2021/03/destiny-usas-junk-bond-ratings-just-got-junkier.html).
|
||||
|
||||
Now let's imagine you are an institution that has: made a bunch of these CMBS moves in commercial property that is not going to recover because of the pandemic.
|
||||
|
||||
Previously, these bonds *had* been able to be used as collateral for staving off margin calls or for whatever other fucking around they might happen to be doing.
|
||||
|
||||
Two things are now occurring. First, the new rules say this junk can't be used anymore as collateral. Second, inflation is coming and eating that sweet profit the bonds offer so any refinancing sees you losing more money on the bet.
|
||||
|
||||
Recall, the yield from interest payments is supposed to compensate for the loss of purchasing power, *and* also for the level of risk of default they are taking on by investing. But as we saw above, rates suck, the risk is through the roof, and evaluations/ratings of debt are all kinds of out of whack to [fraudulent](https://www.sec.gov/litigation/litreleases/2021/lr25030.htm).
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/ok2xksrd9r471.png?width=960&format=png&auto=webp&s=c6ab96684ac56cf1010235939aafd5e02b87781e)
|
||||
|
||||
I hope she comes back for the sequel!
|
||||
|
||||
OK, so to try and wrap this up (I hope):
|
||||
|
||||
- Cash is going to continue to pour in that needs to be placed.
|
||||
|
||||
- Inflation is going to make it impossible to earn positive rates on assets after being adjusted for inflation on anything but *"extremely speculative" to "default is imminent with little prospect for recovery"* risks.
|
||||
|
||||
- Cash can be stashed with the Fed @ 0% currently--although there are rumblings of having to taper support.
|
||||
|
||||
- Previous collateral (zombie CMBS as example) is considered junk and may be losing value due to being mistakenly rated/valued to begin, with yield rates, which had been used to secure the balance sheet now also being eaten by inflation.
|
||||
|
||||
- Their cash can't be used as collateral because it is a liability, and even if used, will suffer a loss of value from inflation.
|
||||
|
||||
Opinion: Because of inflation, the shorts are going to drown in their cash. There is no place for it to go to earn a positive yield greater than what inflation will eat, or should be acceptable for the level of risk of default.
|
||||
|
||||
With nowhere to park this cash to generate positive yields and while having to contend with balance sheets that are having assets eaten away, participants will continue to use the Reverse Repo to buy time until:
|
||||
|
||||
1. Being down in real terms because of inflation is something that cannot be made back up to service the debt and will weigh on balance sheets as they try to protect from margin calls.
|
||||
|
||||
2. Their existing collateral on the balance sheet can get re-rated lower, re-appraised lower, or just eaten by inflation to the point even what they are borrowing in treasuries can't meet the requirements to hold off a margin call.
|
||||
|
||||
3. They hit the 80 billion Reverse Repo limit because of nowhere else to place cash, are tapped out on treasuries, and no longer able to post acceptable collateral to meet their margin requirements.
|
||||
|
||||
TL:DR -- I believe inflation is the match that has been lit that will light the fuse of our rocket.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/zfeirmk1ar471.gif?format=mp4&s=145be8f8efce1dd435904906e802c79be7866221)
|
||||
|
||||
Tik Tock and I hope I didn't screw this up too badly!
|
@ -0,0 +1,12 @@
|
||||
BOOM, another record! $547.808 Billion in Reverse Repo operations occurred today. Yesterday it was $534.943 Billion 0% to 54 participants. Today is $547.808 Billion 0% interest to 49 participants.
|
||||
====================================================================================================================================================================================================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/Dismal-Jellyfish](https://www.reddit.com/user/Dismal-Jellyfish/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nxl5gl/boom_another_record_547808_billion_in_reverse/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
[News 📰 | Media 📱](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22News%20%F0%9F%93%B0%20%7C%20Media%20%F0%9F%93%B1%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://i.redd.it/avrh4pcp6o471.png)
|
@ -0,0 +1,12 @@
|
||||
KABOOM, another record! $583.892 Billion in Reverse Repo operations occurred today. Previously it was $547.808 Billion 0% to 49 participants. Today is $583.892 Billion 0% interest to 59 participants.
|
||||
=======================================================================================================================================================================================================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/Dismal-Jellyfish](https://www.reddit.com/user/Dismal-Jellyfish/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nzrt3p/kaboom_another_record_583892_billion_in_reverse/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
[News 📰 | Media 📱](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22News%20%F0%9F%93%B0%20%7C%20Media%20%F0%9F%93%B1%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://i.redd.it/6nospqpfl9571.png)
|
@ -0,0 +1,12 @@
|
||||
$509.559 Billion in Reverse Repo operations @ 0% to 45 participants occurred today. Previously it was $583.892 Billion 0% to 59 participants.
|
||||
=============================================================================================================================================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/Dismal-Jellyfish](https://www.reddit.com/user/Dismal-Jellyfish/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/o0jgmy/509559_billion_in_reverse_repo_operations_0_to_45/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
[News 📰 | Media 📱](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22News%20%F0%9F%93%B0%20%7C%20Media%20%F0%9F%93%B1%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://i.redd.it/rsqpln5cqg571.png)
|
@ -0,0 +1,12 @@
|
||||
$755.800 Billion in Reverse Repo operations @ 0.05% from 68 participants occurred today. Yesterday it was $520.942 Billion 0% from 53 participants.
|
||||
===================================================================================================================================================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/Dismal-Jellyfish](https://www.reddit.com/user/Dismal-Jellyfish/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/o22eqe/755800_billion_in_reverse_repo_operations_005/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
[News 📰 | Media 📱](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22News%20%F0%9F%93%B0%20%7C%20Media%20%F0%9F%93%B1%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://i.redd.it/7a5fwxm80v571.png)
|
@ -0,0 +1,23 @@
|
||||
# Full list of Reverse Repo Counterparties
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/NigTangV2](https://www.reddit.com/u/NigTangV2/) | [newyorkfed.org](https://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/rrp_counterparties.html#reverse-repo-counterparties) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||

|
||||
|
||||

|
||||
|
||||

|
||||
|
||||

|
||||
|
||||

|
||||
|
||||

|
||||
|
||||

|
||||
|
||||

|
@ -0,0 +1,46 @@
|
||||
IMPORTANT: This is why they mentioned "more than a majority represented" at the meeting. It's simple. Read this. Please.
|
||||
========================================================================================================================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/greysweatseveryday](https://www.reddit.com/user/greysweatseveryday/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nvzwou/important_this_is_why_they_mentioned_more_than_a/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
[DD 👨🔬](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22DD%20%F0%9F%91%A8%E2%80%8D%F0%9F%94%AC%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||
I have extensive experience with public company shareholder meetings.
|
||||
|
||||
There has been a lot of discussion about the statement made that "There are present at this meeting in person or by proxy more than the majority of all shares that are entitled to cast votes". This statement was made by the secretary at the meeting.
|
||||
|
||||
TL;DR: This was a standard statement made for the meeting to be valid.
|
||||
|
||||
WHY DID THE SECRETARY SAY THAT?!
|
||||
|
||||
It is part of his script for the meeting so that they have on record that quorum was met so the meeting could be validly held.
|
||||
|
||||
What is quorum? A quorum is the answer to the question: "How many stockholders need to vote for the shareholder's meeting to be validly held".
|
||||
|
||||
From the proxy statement, here are the quorum requirements (bolded by me):
|
||||
|
||||
> **6. What Constitutes a Quorum?**A quorum of common stockholders is required to hold a valid annual meeting of stockholders. Unless a quorum is present at the annual meeting, no action may be taken at the annual meeting except the adjournment thereof to a later time. The holders of a majority of the outstanding shares of our common stock entitled to vote at the meeting must be present or by proxy to constitute a quorum. All valid proxies returned will be included in the determination of whether a quorum is present at the annual meeting. The shares of a stockholder whose ballot on any or all proposals is marked as "abstain" will be treated as present for quorum purposes. If a broker indicates on the proxy that it does not have discretionary authority as to certain shares to vote on a particular matter, those uninstructed shares, constituting "broker non-votes," will be considered as present for determining a quorum, but will not be voted with respect to that matter.
|
||||
|
||||
<https://news.gamestop.com/static-files/8f795a88-54a3-4320-b3e2-a2d5f28be6c4> page 10
|
||||
|
||||
Does that language look familiar? Yep.
|
||||
|
||||
DOES THIS MEAN THERE WASN'T OVER VOTING?
|
||||
|
||||
NO. This has nothing to do with over-voting. This is required for the secretary to say in order to properly conduct the meeting.
|
||||
|
||||
BUT THEN WHAT DOES THIS MEAN?!
|
||||
|
||||
It means that the shareholder meeting was validly constituted to conduct the business that it meant to conduct. It meant that the shareholder approvals made at the meeting are valid.
|
||||
|
||||
That's it.
|
||||
|
||||
Don't spread FUD or drama about this. It's nothing more than that.
|
||||
|
||||
EDIT 1: I've seen a couple different questions or comments stating that over-voting would have made the meeting invalid. I'm not sure where the source of that came from, but too many votes would not make the process invalid. In fact, Delaware law (GME exists under Delaware law) even contemplates that there might be over voting for public companies that is corrected by the inspector of elections. (<https://delcode.delaware.gov/title8/c001/sc07/index.html>, section 231(d)).
|
||||
|
||||
The quorum statement is purely procedural to ensure the meeting is valid. This has nothing to do with over-voting and this does not confirm that there was or was not over-voting.
|
@ -0,0 +1,22 @@
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [SEC](https://www.sec.gov/about.shtml) | [sec.gov](https://www.sec.gov/news/press-release/2021-84) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
# SEC Charges S&P Dow Jones Indices for Failures Relating to Volatility-Related Index
|
||||
|
||||
### FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
|
||||
**2021-84**
|
||||
|
||||
Washington D.C., May 17, 2021 — The Securities and Exchange Commission today announced settled charges against S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC for failures relating to a previously undisclosed quality control feature of one of its volatility-related indices, which led S&P DJI to publish and disseminate stale index values during a period of unprecedented volatility.
|
||||
|
||||
The SEC’s order finds that the S&P 500 VIX Short Term Futures Index ER (Index) published by S&P DJI was intended to calculate values based on real-time prices of certain CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) futures contracts. According to the order, S&P DJI licenses the Index to, among others, issuers that use it to offer securities, including the issuer of the inverse exchange-traded note called XIV, and the license agreement requires S&P DJI’s approval of the description of the index in offering documents. On Monday, Feb. 5, 2018, the VIX experienced a spike of 115%, but the Index remained static during certain intervals between 4:00 p.m. and 5:08 p.m. that day. According to the SEC’s order, this was due to an undisclosed “Auto Hold” feature, which is triggered if an index value breaches certain thresholds, at which point the immediately prior index value continues to be reported. The SEC found that XIV’s issuer derived information about the Index from S&P DJI’s public disclosures about the Index, but the Auto Hold feature had never been publicly disclosed. The SEC’s order finds that S&P DJI personnel did not release the Auto Hold for the Index during the referenced intervals, as they had the ability to do, resulting in the publication and dissemination of stale and static Index values, rather than values based on the real-time prices of certain VIX futures contracts.
|
||||
|
||||
The SEC’s order finds that, because the Index was the primary input for the calculation of the XIV ETN’s indicative value, the ETN’s indicative values published to the market during the same intervals were similarly static and, as a result, the indicative values being reported in real-time were higher than they would have been if the Auto Hold had not been triggered. While the Auto Hold was in place freezing the values being published to the market, XIV’s indicative value breached a key metric, which provided XIV’s issuer the right to accelerate all outstanding notes. According to the SEC’s order, XIV therefore had an economic value that was substantially lower than what had been publicly reported and was at risk of being accelerated by its issuer.
|
||||
|
||||
“Index providers like S&P DJI play a crucial role in the financial markets,” said Daniel Michael, Chief of the SEC Enforcement Division’s Complex Financial Instruments Unit. “When index providers license their indices for the issuance of securities, as S&P DJI did here, they must ensure that the disclosure of critical features of their products as well as the publication of real-time values are accurate.”
|
||||
|
||||
The SEC’s order charges S&P DJI with violating Section 17(a)(3) of the Securities Act. Without admitting or denying the SEC’s findings, S&P DJI agreed to a cease-and-desist order and to pay a $9 million penalty.
|
||||
|
||||
The SEC’s investigation was conducted by Joshua I. Brodsky, Armita S. Cohen, and Daniel L. Koster of the Complex Financial Instruments Unit and Matthew O. Koop of the Market Abuse Unit with assistance from Thomas Bednar and David Misler of the Enforcement Division’s Trial Unit. The investigation was supervised by Jeffrey P. Weiss.
|
144
Government/2021-06-17-WTF-is-the-Fed-Doing.md
Normal file
144
Government/2021-06-17-WTF-is-the-Fed-Doing.md
Normal file
@ -0,0 +1,144 @@
|
||||
WTF is the Fed Doing?
|
||||
=====================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/leisure_rules](https://www.reddit.com/user/leisure_rules/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/o1y03k/wtf_is_the_fed_doing/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
[Education 👨🏫 | Data 🔢](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22Education%20%F0%9F%91%A8%E2%80%8D%F0%9F%8F%AB%20%7C%20Data%20%F0%9F%94%A2%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||
Given the continued QE, the increasing usage of the ON RRP facility, and the lack of inflationary concern from JP at the FOMC meetings yesterday, I figured I'd take a stab at distilling what's happening.
|
||||
|
||||
In case you're interested, here's a write-up I did that will go into much more detail than I will here: <https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/o0kt0y/the_fed_value_of_money_and_emergency_relief/>
|
||||
|
||||
Hokay, here we go.
|
||||
|
||||
Monetary Policy and the Fed
|
||||
|
||||
Again, keeping it top line here. The Fed's main goals are
|
||||
|
||||
1. maintaining moderate long-term interest rates
|
||||
|
||||
2. maximum employment
|
||||
|
||||
3. stable prices (specifically keeping inflation around 2% **on average* this is key*)
|
||||
|
||||
How does the Fed work to achieve these goals, you ask? Monetary Policy:
|
||||
|
||||
Expansionary - cash goes in, collateral comes out, saving goes down, spending and economic growth accelerate
|
||||
|
||||
Contractionary - cash goes out, collateral goes in, saving goes up, spending and economic growth slow
|
||||
|
||||
They did this by setting a target interest rate on which all interest rates can be based. Increasing or decreasing this target rate is the main driver of monetary policy. How they reach that target has changed over time.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/tel7un3ust571.png?width=810&format=png&auto=webp&s=a2e760af368c2cd0ec1a1ac26be313e170a8dde4)
|
||||
|
||||
Pre-2008
|
||||
|
||||
For a long time, the Fed did this solely by dictating the amount of reserves held by institutions at the Federal Reserve. It could increase or decrease the supply of reserves by buying or selling treasuries on the open market.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/ao0g9bynst571.png?width=807&format=png&auto=webp&s=be9025fbbf6610f4ad0e3ef83e293686ce1776f8)
|
||||
|
||||
How it used to work
|
||||
|
||||
Simply, these changes in the supply and demand of these reserves determined the federal funds rate (FFR), which is defined as the interest rate that banks charge each other to borrow or lend reserves in the federal funds market. This rate acts as the foundation for all interest rates in the market(s). As a consumer, the higher your credit-worthiness, the closer your rate on a loan/car/etc. would be to the FFR. To summarize:
|
||||
|
||||
- To raise the FFR, the Fed decreases the supply of reserves by *selling* U.S. Treasury securities in the open market.6 The decrease in reserves shifts the supply curve left, resulting in a higher FFR.
|
||||
|
||||
- To lower the FFR, the Fed increases the supply of reserves by *buying* U.S. Treasury securities in the open market. The increase in reserves shifts the supply curve right, resulting in a lower FFR.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/t8axn611mt571.png?width=410&format=png&auto=webp&s=19f1e30216d8b13542d93ea0a2a1f7e8678af10a)
|
||||
|
||||
Moving the vertical supply curve left or right adjusted the FFR
|
||||
|
||||
Post-2008
|
||||
|
||||
So, obviously a bunch of fucked-up shit took place - I recommend reading the essay compiled by [u/criand](https://www.reddit.com/u/criand/) - [The Bigger Short. How 2008 is repeating, at a much greater magnitude, and COVID ignited the fuse. GME is not the reason for the market crash. GME was the fatal flaw of Wall Street in their infinite money cheat that they did not expect.](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/o0scoy/the_bigger_short_how_2008_is_repeating_at_a_much/)
|
||||
|
||||
But long-story short, the Fed 'needed' to do something to prevent the entire collapse of the global economy.
|
||||
|
||||
**opinion* the Fed could've prevented a lot of this shit through it's job as a economic 'regulatory' entity, but has instead chosen to be a 'lender-of-last-resort' coming in as the janitor to clean up Wall Streets shit*
|
||||
|
||||
ANYWHO, what changed? Well a lot actually, but we'll focus on how the Fed determines interest rates now.
|
||||
|
||||
When the Fed when on a shopping spree to clean up the liquidity mess of the MBS debacle, it drastically altered the composition of its balance sheet - meaning the asset side not only went up significantly, but also changed in composition. It no longer only purchased US Treasuries on the open market, but now was open to buying the dog shit MBS, agency debt, and other assets that were previous dubbed, well, dog shit. Here's a colorful graph to illustrate this:
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/n9wb3ihmnt571.png?width=2184&format=png&auto=webp&s=e5bc5d26f81ea98c076563fab4bedc6580b56432)
|
||||
|
||||
ooo colors
|
||||
|
||||
So quickly without going into accounting 101, balance sheets. As the name implies, balance sheets have to remain balanced. So what did the Fed do to compensate this shopping spree, it 'printed money' of course, by creating new reserve balances on the liability side of the sheet. Problem solved
|
||||
|
||||
Except no, this just introduced a whole new problem. As you can see above, it wasn't a short term fix. This created a lasting and fundamental change in how the Fed conducts monetary policy.
|
||||
|
||||
Limited-Reserves to Ample-Reserves
|
||||
|
||||
See the problem is, when there is a large quantity of reserves in the banking system, the Federal Reserve can no longer influence the FFR by making relatively small changes in the supply of reserves. This changes the entire fundamental mechanism of monetary policy! So what'd they do? They just changed the policy.
|
||||
|
||||
Introducing IOR on ON RRP - Interest on Reserves and Over Night Reverse Repo Rates. Now by adjusting these rates, the Fed can control that FFR they care so much about, by trying to keep it within the desired range dictated by the current monetary goals.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/hddxylu5pt571.png?width=412&format=png&auto=webp&s=0a26d531900d37414adf83a57e53e01ef1b8ff90)
|
||||
|
||||
With the Supply curve now so far to the right (lots of reserves) the FFR rate is less likely to fluctuate along the demand curve
|
||||
|
||||
By implementing the guardrails of IOR and ON RRP, the Fed again has control over monetary policy. Except now, it's not really monetary policy anymore is it? A lot of economists will argue it's something called Credit Policy, because the quantity of 'money' isn't actually changed - just the rate at which it can be borrowed.
|
||||
|
||||
The Fed seemed to get rather used to this concept, and as the economy recovered from the Great Recession, the Fed took steps to reduce the supply of reserves from its peak in October 2014 of about $2.7 trillion. Over the next few years, the Fed reduced reserves to about $1.7 trillion. However, they still remained *ample as it related to pre-2008.* In fact, in January 2019, the FOMC released a statement saying it would continue to implement policy with ample reserves in the long run. This was further confirmed in June of 2021 (yeah like 3 weeks ago), when the Fed announced it plans to move away from reserve requirements as they just aren't needed when you have ample reserves.
|
||||
|
||||
I skipping so much shit, but for the sake of keeping your attention we'll move on
|
||||
|
||||
Which Brings Us to Today (more or less)
|
||||
|
||||
We all know what happened last year, and the ample-reserves at the Fed have only become MORE ample. As mentioned, policy directives were starting to wind-down the reserves held at the Fed, until COVID hit.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/ncq8dvcjqt571.png?width=1466&format=png&auto=webp&s=cd6d82f86d2347795a3b101bfcc0585bc9ad51a5)
|
||||
|
||||
FED PRINTER GO BRRRRR
|
||||
|
||||
Now, the Fed is buying $80T in Treasuries, $40B in MBS, and droped the ON RRP to 0% - setting an effective FLOOR for all interest rates.
|
||||
|
||||
The ON RRP Facility
|
||||
|
||||
Well when the Fed decided it wanted to finally shift gears and 'taper' their dog-shit-shopping-spree, the question remained of how that would affect short-term interest rates. After all, the IOR only applied to a select list of primary dealers, so how could they guarantee that those institutions would follow their plan?
|
||||
|
||||
In order to maintain control of this process, they set up the ON RRP Facility in 2014. The ON RRP facility is a form of open market operations where the Fed stands ready to interact with many nonbank financial institutions, such as large money market funds (MMF) and government-sponsored enterprises (GSE) - think Blackrock (MMF) or Freddie/Fannie (GSE). This RRP facility enabled those institutions to engage in overnight RRPs with the Fed at a predetermined rate (the "ON RRP rate"), which was set 25 basis points below IOER - essentially creating those guardrails you saw around the FFR. Now by moving both the IOR and ON RRP rates, the Fed again has control over monetary (or credit) policy.
|
||||
|
||||
The TGA
|
||||
|
||||
Something worth noting is the Treasury General Account - essentially the slush fund for the US Dept. of Treasury, held at the Fed. Similar to a lot of things, the functions of this account changed after 2008.
|
||||
|
||||
The way it operated prior to 2008, it didn't actually affect bank reserves and/or monetary policy as the Treasury Taxes and Loans program handled it separately. So when a corporation paying taxes, for example, would write a check to the Treasury that would be deposited in a bank, where the funds would be deposited in a Treasury account and stay on the bank's balance sheet rather than going into the TGA (as it does now). However, the need to collateralize Treasury deposits occasionally led banks to cap the amount of funds they were willing to hold for the Treasury. This limited the Fed/Treasury's ability to influence monetary policy directly via Treasury issuance.
|
||||
|
||||
Now, the TGA has become a big driver of monetary (or credit) policy, and it has direct influence over the reserve balances held at the Fed. So a wind down of the TGA balance directly *increases* the balance of federal reserve account balance of depository institutions. The treasuries issued last year as 'payment' for the $3T for COVID relief go back to the Treasury to likely be used again for the next time they want to pump up the TGA balance around stimulus spending.
|
||||
|
||||
This effectively removes the available collateral that can be borrowed from the Fed on a short term basis. Those *treasuries* held on collateral sat in the SOMA (assets side) at the Fed, but the Treasury's *cash* sits in the TGA (a liability on the balance sheet), which is also at the Fed. In order to offset that disparity - influx of cash coupled with decrease in available bonds to borrow - it necessitated the utilization ON RRP facilities, which as we know was introduced to help control short term rate changes in the money markets - now directly affected by changes in the TGA account.
|
||||
|
||||
*Long story short - TGA goes down, Reserve Balances go up = more cash in circulation*
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/tspj5vat0u571.png?width=1464&format=png&auto=webp&s=0d6db955bd2019b2f453cadaae361819fccea7a3)
|
||||
|
||||
look at the inverse relationship between the Green and Orange lines
|
||||
|
||||
To Wrap Up
|
||||
|
||||
So now that you understand the macro objectives of the Federal Reserve (hopefully), I'm going to quickly summarize the current situation we're in and why no one (at the Fed at least) seems to be concerned:
|
||||
|
||||
[According to the Fed](https://finance.yahoo.com/video/ny-fed-pres-williams-financial-200415526.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93b2xmc3RyZWV0LmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAA64ghmbSRhBF8yMH6GXtqGi5cppvTxynQHoXkunrkOahGgH5t8tn9bK_iQYFftcFxV6TKs_FgiPcrDCWtkLy9qMKKfHqtQ-vk509BiZD9cnySHy89BJp0BWpwiWd7wON9225Lspm6fSI4z-_vbycGMAi591nP8nrXf6cVUAH4Qr), as JP reiterated yesterday, this is business as usual, working exactly as intended, and will continue for the foreseeable future.
|
||||
|
||||
However, the banks [have way too much cash](https://www.wsj.com/articles/banks-to-companies-no-more-deposits-please-11623238200). All of them. Commercial all the way up to GSIBs. So in order to maintain their capital requirements they're offloading a lot of it to MMFs. (This dude proves that it's MMFs mainly using the ON RRP facility right now, as intended [LINK](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nzrtvz/daily_reverse_repo_update_0614_583892_b_new_record/h1r5c7f?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3))
|
||||
|
||||
So why is the Fed still doing this? Well, go back to those mandates as part of their charter Specifically, 1) maintain a stable rate of inflation of around 2% *average* and 2) full employment. Inflation is not a concern to J. Powell, as he feels it is transitory and will even out to hit that *2% average over time*. The kicker is unemployment is still high. So until more people return to work, the QE will continue, coupled with the wind down of the TGA.
|
||||
|
||||
So, to summarize, a major concern a lot of people have is that as this continues short-term interest rates have an increasing likelihood to dip into the negatives. This isn't ideal obviously, and if that transcends into commercial banking you're going to see a run of consumers pulling out their cash (who wants to pay the bank to hold your money?).
|
||||
|
||||
Duh duh duh - the *ON RRP facility mops up that mess, each and every night.*
|
||||
|
||||
So the whole point is that the Fed is kicking the can down the road not with anything to do around over-leveraged equities (at least not fully), but to avoid negative interest rates becoming prevalent, and seeing all that cash and liquidity out there drained from the markets - effectively undoing their goals around current monetary policy.
|
||||
|
||||
Hence, resulting in the "nothing to see here folks" narrative.
|
||||
|
||||
Again, this is a summary of events and there is a lot of missing information and dynamics not covered. Obviously not financial advice, as always be kind to one another and buy & hold
|
||||
|
||||
If you want to get a more in-depth crash course on this evolution, [this is a great place to start](https://reffonomics.com/amplereservesregime.html)
|
@ -0,0 +1,44 @@
|
||||
I think the Fed just accidentally proved us right
|
||||
=================================================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/leisure_rules](https://www.reddit.com/user/leisure_rules/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/o2lgfg/i_think_the_fed_just_accidentally_proved_us_right/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
[Possible DD 👨🔬](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22Possible%20DD%20%F0%9F%91%A8%E2%80%8D%F0%9F%94%AC%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||
Some background reading: [Detailed](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/o0kt0y/the_fed_value_of_money_and_emergency_relief/) & [Simplified](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/o1y03k/wtf_is_the_fed_doing/)
|
||||
|
||||
As we all know, usage of the ON RRP Facility just jumped up over $200B, setting a new record at $755.8 billion from now 68 counterparties. Why?
|
||||
|
||||
Well, during the FOMC meetings, the Fed announced a few things around QE that are circulating through MSM, freaking everyone out about there being 'too much money' and risks of inflation - but a key change that isn't getting as much attention is their decision to raise the IOR and ON RRP rate 5 basis points (.05%), effectively trying to raise the 'floor' of the FFR. (If this doesn't make sense to you, please read [this](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/o1y03k/wtf_is_the_fed_doing/) explanation)
|
||||
|
||||
Long story short, the Fed is now incentivizing more usage of the facility in its efforts to raise the interest rates away from negative territory, by offering to pay counterparties 5 basis points instead of 0 to park cash every night. This seems counterintuitive right, since continued QE is pumping cash into the system, and now the Fed is paying to take it back out at the end of each day - but it actually makes sense when you look at the affect it has (or should have) on short-term interest rates in the open market.
|
||||
|
||||
While the ON RRP rate was still 0, we could all assume that the 'too much money' narrative was in fact the issue. However, something interesting happened to short-term T-bill yields yesterday when the ON RRP rate was lifted:
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/vntx5gfvmz571.png?width=705&format=png&auto=webp&s=bf2eb085ecc96b9033458c15ef7c35fe25e29c00)
|
||||
|
||||
short-term yields went the WRONG DIRECTION
|
||||
|
||||
What does this mean? Well, the goal was to start easing yields back up from near-zero or potentially negative levels by lifting the 'floor' of the ON RRP. If the issue was purely due to too much money being in the system, it would've worked. Banks, MMFs, GSEs, etc. would take the 5 basis points from the Fed and not bother parking their excess cash elsewhere for less interest.
|
||||
|
||||
So the reverse repo is now at 5, yet bill yields at the 4-, 8-, and 3-month maturities are all less than this. Why? It can only mean this one thing, there is a stark and very dire need for high-quality collateral, otherwise nothing would ever yield below this secured alternative with the Federal Reserve. Who would buy a 4- or 8-week UST bill returning one and a half maybe two basis points less than lending to the Fed secured by the same instrument? They're giving up guaranteed profit
|
||||
|
||||
This all points to the true underlying issue that we collectively have been yelling about here - there is a MAJOR collateral liquidity issue in the money markets. I WONDER WHY....
|
||||
|
||||
edit:
|
||||
|
||||
TL;DR
|
||||
|
||||
The Fed just inadvertently showed us that the liquidity issue around ON RRP usage isn't 'too much cash' - it's too little collateral.
|
||||
|
||||
from [u/scamiran](https://www.reddit.com/u/scamiran/):
|
||||
|
||||
There's plenty of liquidity in the market.
|
||||
|
||||
Solvency? Not so much. But everyone wants to pretend that if there is sufficient liquidity, there must be solvency.
|
||||
|
||||
That's how you get zombie banks and stagflation.
|
@ -0,0 +1,12 @@
|
||||
Citadel Securities Luxembourg dissolved 4/30/2021
|
||||
=================================================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/cspawn](https://www.reddit.com/user/cspawn/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/o0n955/citadel_securities_luxembourg_dissolved_4302021/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
[gd.lu/resa/2...](https://gd.lu/resa/2mng1G)
|
||||
|
||||
[Discussion 🦍](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22Discussion%20%F0%9F%A6%8D%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
246
Jungle-Beat-Archives/2021-06-14-Jungle-Beat.md
Normal file
246
Jungle-Beat-Archives/2021-06-14-Jungle-Beat.md
Normal file
@ -0,0 +1,246 @@
|
||||
The Jungle Beat- Monday 06-14-2021- It's Finally Monday Again!!! 🚀🚀🚀
|
||||
=======================================================================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/pinkcatsonacid](https://www.reddit.com/user/pinkcatsonacid/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nzvpvg/the_jungle_beat_monday_06142021_its_finally/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
[Daily News 🦍💎🙌🚀](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22Daily%20News%20%F0%9F%A6%8D%F0%9F%92%8E%F0%9F%99%8C%F0%9F%9A%80%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||
*This piece will be posted at 4:20 pm NYSE time every trading day!*
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/nuke285am9571.png?width=1426&format=png&auto=webp&s=770b6f9cb3d0db13807585ec8080c07179a5eb35)
|
||||
|
||||
u/Sharkbait_lol, u/grungromp, u/pinkcatsonacid, u/bye_triangle, u/redchessqueen99, u/Captain-Fan
|
||||
|
||||
__________________________________________________________________
|
||||
|
||||
🎤🎸🥁 🦍Welcome to the Jungle🦍🥁🎸🎤
|
||||
|
||||
__________________________________________________________________
|
||||
|
||||
Today's Recap 📉
|
||||
|
||||
$GME Closing Price: $229.44
|
||||
|
||||
Open Price: $236.50
|
||||
|
||||
Daily High: $238.01
|
||||
|
||||
Daily Low: $219.20
|
||||
|
||||
Volume: 7.06 MM
|
||||
|
||||
_____________________________________________________________________
|
||||
|
||||
🖍🍎🚌GME 101🚌🍎🖍
|
||||
|
||||
*If you're new to Superstonk, start here!*
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/ttu18klap8571.jpg?width=944&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=dc83f7e34dcd38476f55ffe25d0980343e3b4546)
|
||||
|
||||
WeBull's Public Opinion $GME rating 06-14-2021
|
||||
|
||||
[Superstonk FAQ](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/wiki/index/faq#wiki_how_do_i.2C_as_a_retail_investor.2C_stand_a_chance_against_the_hedge_funds.3F) (Updates coming soon)
|
||||
|
||||
[Superstonk Wiki](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/wiki/index)
|
||||
|
||||
NEW!! We will be having a "Smooth Brain Sunday Megathread" every Sunday as a place to ask all the questions you've been wanting to get answered! Please be advised that all answers provided are from individual users and, as always, any information you receive requires doing your own due diligence!!
|
||||
|
||||
The apes of [r/Superstonk](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/) sincerely appreciate the time and effort put into getting this information out there. 🦍🤝💪
|
||||
|
||||
_______________________________________________________________________________
|
||||
|
||||
We Like the Company! We Support the Company!
|
||||
|
||||
Obviously you're a shareholder because you love Gamestop and have high hopes for its future. Supporting the company you love on the retail front is a great way for a shareholder to ensure a business' success! Here are several ways you can show your public support for Gamestop;
|
||||
|
||||
- [Shop at Gamestop.com](https://www.gamestop.com/) 🛒
|
||||
|
||||
- [Become a PowerUp Rewards Member](https://www.gamestop.com/poweruprewards/) ✊
|
||||
|
||||
- [... Which gets you a subscription to Game Informer Magazine](https://www.gameinformer.com/) 🚀
|
||||
|
||||
- [Follow Gamestop on Twitter](https://twitter.com/GameStop) 🦍
|
||||
|
||||
- [Subscribe to Gamestop's YouTube Channel](https://www.youtube.com/user/gamestopvideo) 🖍
|
||||
|
||||
- [Follow Gamestop on Twitch](https://www.twitch.tv/gamestop) 🎮
|
||||
|
||||
- [Follow Gamestop on Instagram](https://www.instagram.com/gamestop/?hl=en) 🌙
|
||||
|
||||
- [Follow Gamestop on Facebook](https://www.facebook.com/GameStop) 🦧
|
||||
|
||||
- [Apple Devices- Download the Gamestop App](https://apps.apple.com/us/app/gamestop/id406033647) (Link to App Store) 🍌
|
||||
|
||||
- [Android Devices- Download the Gamestop App](https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=com.gamestop.powerup) (Link to Play Shop) 📈
|
||||
|
||||
- Brands owned by Gamestop; ThinkGeek, GameInformer, [MicroMania](https://www.micromania.fr/), and [EB Games](https://www.ebgames.ca/) 💎
|
||||
|
||||
Please remember apes, as you are interacting with Gamestop Social Media, that their objective is to reach gamers and promote their brand to their demographic. Yes it's fun when they tweet MOASS and Chickie Tendies, but let's not flood them with comments about Ken, Naked Short Selling, and Mayonnaise. Let's show them support by joining, contributing to, and expanding their robust community of gamers!
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/1v1xr0g3s8571.jpg?width=1080&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=acc74fe4a4d8dc2e6e4b902b294bf5d9243e255d)
|
||||
|
||||
Power to the Player 💎✊
|
||||
|
||||
_______________________________________________________________________________
|
||||
|
||||
We Like the Stock!!
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/kpcdut8zu3571.png?width=480&format=png&auto=webp&s=2662f922ad6457977e879c9fa4b13295c6ed3817)
|
||||
|
||||
Going back to our roots
|
||||
|
||||
There has been a lot of conversation (FUD) over the weekend about "Fuck you, pay me" and referring to being involved with trading $GME simply because you want to become rich and purely to trigger MOASS. Or because "we're Occupy Wall St. 2.0!" (NO).
|
||||
|
||||
THESE ARE NOT THE PURPOSE, INTENT, OR COLLECTIVE SENTIMENT OF THIS SUBREDDIT.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/3zbjz71nd8571.jpg?width=603&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=e8443aa2cc8ac94db62a0ad3febc32d1d8b22708)
|
||||
|
||||
Superstonk is a community of individual investors that believe Gamestop as a company is an excellent long-term investment that has huge potential in an untapped market with an Avengers-level team of executives that will likely redefine the face of retail in the 21st century. This community was not made to discuss other stocks the way /WSB or /investing do. This sub is a congregation of individuals- in that sense, a collective "we or us"- that supports the vision of the company Gamestop long-term, especially its current chairman, Ryan Cohen. We like the company. We like the stock. That's it.
|
||||
|
||||
And a little refresher on the we/us debate- WHEN WE SAY "WE OR US", WE ARE TALKING ABOUT THE SUB'S COLLECTIVE WE/US AS A COMMUNITY. There is nothing wrong with that!
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/2lpjdekg78571.png?width=740&format=png&auto=webp&s=12f527b70f2aaf29396f15f777129a6927c7c168)
|
||||
|
||||
Use of the words We/Us are NOT EVIDENCE OF MARKET MANIPULATION.
|
||||
|
||||
Enforcement is the *key* to a manipulation case. Do we make paper hands actually pay some sort of penance for selling? NO. Do we have an agreed upon floor price that we all must adhere to? Umm..... :gestures broadly at literally everyone debating possible floor price:
|
||||
|
||||
Market manipulation is doing something to inflate or deflate the price of a stock. THESE are the ESTABLISHED GROUNDS for charging someone with market manipulation. And do you know how many times that's happened? [Like 5 times. And they were all people in the industry.](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/n22g01/breakdown_of_legalese_to_speak_part_5_market/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3)
|
||||
|
||||
There's no case for market manipulation in this subreddit, or even in the GME Saga as a whole.
|
||||
|
||||
Well, I lied. Hedgies are doing plenty.
|
||||
|
||||
So when you see people referring to "we" or "us", *they aren't doing anything wrong.* This is a community, right? Everyone here isn't just a figment of your imagination right? (RIGHT?!?)
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/mpwfwnnx78571.png?width=800&format=png&auto=webp&s=dbd9e0dc43abe93bb7b74ae1f86b55c7db615a08)
|
||||
|
||||
Y'all aren't imaginary, right?
|
||||
|
||||
We are a community of individually-minded investors. And no one can stop us from liking and discussing a stock. That's what they want you to think. Saying "we" or "us" when talking about Superstonk is just talking about the membership of this subreddit. There is nothing there that's illegal or negative in and of itself. All "we" do is gather here and discuss the future of a company we all love and have invested in because we believe in the future of the leadership.
|
||||
|
||||
What's the difference between our sub and the idea dinners the rich have been attending for decades? *The expense report*. Do you remember when American Politicians used insider information about the pandemic to profit off of the resulting crash? APES REMEMBER**.** Don't let FUD stop you from bonding with your fellow ape. Companionship is essential to the human experience. Get in here and love each other. It's Woodstonk 2021 up in here✌💖🌼☮
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/jnfssd1k88571.png?width=549&format=png&auto=webp&s=4c66fef620a388bf01f32a008da79d153533931d)
|
||||
|
||||
With that being said, WE HAVE NO LEADER HERE. [r/Superstonk](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/) has administrative users that moderate the community according to site rules. That's it! When it comes to leaders, mods are just the administrators of the environment. This community was built by apes, for apes. With no one user more important than the other. APE= All People Equal ✊ No politics. No religion. No leaders. No divisiveness. Just excellence and the stock we love.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/lu1ryvz9f8571.png?width=1000&format=png&auto=webp&s=ba989b8ceba279596c56a29678ccf9819f0eadea)
|
||||
|
||||
WE DON'T HAVE ONE!
|
||||
|
||||
Here's a few notes from [u/redchessqueen99](https://www.reddit.com/u/redchessqueen99/)**'s Weekend Update**
|
||||
|
||||
1. Please view the DISCLAIMER associated with the subreddit. You can access it by going to [r/Superstonk](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/) and (on Desktop) looking at the side bar, and (on Mobile) under the About menu.
|
||||
|
||||
2. We do not manipulate the market. We do not coordinate anything regarding the stock market. We do not urge people to buy or sell, or do anything with what is their privately owned stock. We do not shame people for their choices as retail investors, in an attempt to get them to hold when they don't want to, or to buy GME when they'd rather buy something else. We let retail investors make their own individual decisions. That's sub policy.
|
||||
|
||||
3. We do not organize or attempt to push political action, or spark Occupy Wall Street 2.0 or whatever some of you think this is. We are not going to organize letters to the SEC or otherwise enter ourselves into a political arena that we, trust me, do not want to enter. We are a bunch of apes who are bananas for GameStop and that's about it.
|
||||
|
||||
4. We are here to share information, build a community, and express ourselves regarding GameStop as not just a stock, but also as a company, in way that is not pressuring or purposefully influential, and is based on fundamentals as well as market realities. If you don't want to talk about GameStop, there are plenty of other subs to go to, and, if you talk about GameStop, make sure you follow the rules and guidelines of the sub.
|
||||
|
||||
5. TL;DR: We like the stock. We love the company. We are apes. That's about it.
|
||||
|
||||
🦍🦍🦍🦍🦍🦍🦍🦍🦍🦍🦍🦍🦍🦍🦍🦍🦍🦍🦍🦍🦍🦍🦍🦍🦍🦍
|
||||
|
||||
___________________________________________________________________________
|
||||
|
||||
Community Spotlight- WTF IS RRP
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/4unxgl9lq3571.png?width=509&format=png&auto=webp&s=9117527736696c56da3ea13d6af121ecad077067)
|
||||
|
||||
Credit u/Itsjustmerk
|
||||
|
||||
So what the hecc does reverse repo mean? This comment by [u/semerien](https://www.reddit.com/u/semerien/) explains it perfectly:
|
||||
|
||||
A reverse repo is when banks, government entities or money market funds "buy" short term treasuries bonds from the fed with cold, hard cash.
|
||||
|
||||
I say "buy" because the deal is only overnight. The next day they sell them back to the fed and get their cash back.
|
||||
|
||||
They do this because right now interest rates are so low that if you try to maintain "highly liquid assets" (shit you can easily turn in to cash if you end up needing cash in a few minutes) you end up losing money due to inflation and short term securities turning negative interest rates.
|
||||
|
||||
So instead of losing money when you have large piles of money, you give the cash to the Fed overnight and then get it back the next day. Currently there is no interest rate on the reverse repo, you don't make any cash doing this.
|
||||
|
||||
However you don't lose cash, which you could lose by any of the other short term, highly liquid assets you could invest in.
|
||||
|
||||
It signifies big banks and money makers are sitting on piles of cash and don't trust any other investments right now. They would rather just store it overnight with the fed where at least they don't lose money.
|
||||
|
||||
There are also theories that the banks are short selling the treasuries they get during the overnight repo to try and make extra money on the deal. Definitely possible but kind of scary when you look at it.
|
||||
|
||||
Alot of these big banks also own money maker funds so they could technically be "double dipping" and be multiple participants in the overnight repo market.
|
||||
|
||||
All those banks sold bonds in the billions of dollars in April and likely had to store the cash somewhere until they need it.
|
||||
|
||||
But they want it to remain highly liquid so they have easy access to it on the day the financial market implodes.
|
||||
|
||||
_______________________________________________________________________________
|
||||
|
||||
Welcome Satori Team as Moderators
|
||||
|
||||
by [u/redchessqueen99](https://www.reddit.com/u/redchessqueen99/)
|
||||
|
||||
Not many of you know the true history behind Satori and how it became so intertwined with the mod team. The truth is they've been working with me since before the [r/Superstonk](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/) migration. These members include [u/catto_del_fatto](https://www.reddit.com/u/catto_del_fatto/), [u/grungromp](https://www.reddit.com/u/grungromp/), and [u/Captain-Fan](https://www.reddit.com/u/Captain-Fan/). They have worked meticulously and tirelessly to progress the Satori project from idea to manifest guardian ape-gel of Superstonk.
|
||||
|
||||
Awhile ago, we added [u/catto_del_fatto](https://www.reddit.com/u/catto_del_fatto/) and he was able to study the sub from a moderator perspective. He has earned our trust and since then has been promoted to general mod permissions. As a result, the Satori team quickly became linked to the mod team, as they became more and more critical to the sub's makeup.
|
||||
|
||||
In the past few months, in addition to Satori, they have helped us identify FUD attacks, organize mod mail, and identify bad actors and true apes alike. I would be wrong to suggest they aren't already a critical aspect of our moderating practice, and therefore we mods voted with overwhelming support to do the next logical step: add them as moderators.
|
||||
|
||||
Please join the mod team in welcoming [u/grungromp](https://www.reddit.com/u/grungromp/) and [u/Captain-Fan](https://www.reddit.com/u/Captain-Fan/) to the moderator team. I have no doubt they will continue to bring incredible concepts to life, with more accuracy and reliability, as mods themselves. Congratulations!
|
||||
|
||||
Also, now they can't escape *maniacal laughter**cough-cough*
|
||||
|
||||
Satori Approvals
|
||||
|
||||
by [u/redchessqueen99](https://www.reddit.com/u/redchessqueen99/)
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/k7ysnex0n8571.png?width=1332&format=png&auto=webp&s=47e34159070430ef40ca28383eeb3ab314cd8024)
|
||||
|
||||
SATORI DIRECTIVE: PR073CC 4P3
|
||||
|
||||
For those unaware, Satori is a sophisticated program that we utilize as a subreddit to identify "true apes" and also "bad actors" or people who would otherwise spread FUD and harassing posts. As a result of this software, we have been able to introduce an approval process that adds members to the Approved Users list. These approved users can bypass the [karma and age limits imposed by automod](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/wiki/index/automod_info).
|
||||
|
||||
We realize there is some confusion about Satori, and we are working on clearing this up in a more reliable way. I just created a [wiki page for Satori](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/wiki/index/satori) and while it is currently under construction you can check back there for updates on the system. This should help us streamline any questions and information, just as we do with [SuperstonkBot](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/wiki/index/superstonkbot).
|
||||
|
||||
Additionally, you can check out [u/grungromp](https://www.reddit.com/u/grungromp/)'s post, [Satori: The One Week Security Update (Important Information Inside)](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nva7nh/satori_the_one_week_security_update_important/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf), for a more recent update. The most critical aspect of this post is the new !apeprove! comment function, which means that any user, inside karma/age limits or not, can comment !apeprove! on any [r/Superstonk](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/) post and be bumped to the top of the list. If your comment is immediately removed, I am told it will still work!
|
||||
|
||||
We have some limits imposed by Reddit, so the approvals are done in waves so as to work within this limits and Reddit policy. This !apeprove! function allows active users to essentially cut line. Make sure you use it! Spam will not be tolerated, though. Patience is key.
|
||||
|
||||
[Read the full weekend update post by Red here.](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nzcsoh/weekend_update_are_you_ready_to_rumble/)
|
||||
|
||||
___________________________________________________________________________
|
||||
|
||||
🚨 Reddit down 🚨
|
||||
|
||||
With Reddit having issues during high traffic, exciting moments in this saga, we have discussed what to do if Reddit has an outage.
|
||||
|
||||
IF REDDIT GOES DOWN AT A PIVOTAL MOMENT A LARGE PORTION OF THE MOD TEAM IS ON TWITTER.
|
||||
|
||||
<https://twitter.com/ByeTriangle>
|
||||
|
||||
<https://twitter.com/PinkCatsOnAcid>
|
||||
|
||||
<https://twitter.com/RedChessQueen99>
|
||||
|
||||
<https://twitter.com/rensole>
|
||||
|
||||
<https://twitter.com/u_sharkbaitlol>
|
||||
|
||||
<https://twitter.com/BradduckF>
|
||||
|
||||
IF THERE IS SOMETHING BIG GOING ON WHILE THE OUTAGE IS HAPPENING WE MAY ALSO UTILIZE THE "EMERGENCY BROADCAST SYSTEM" TO RELAY INFO:
|
||||
|
||||
[SuperstonkLive YouTube - Emergency Broadcast System](https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCI4EET9NJPWxUuXGlG6fxPA)
|
||||
|
||||
___________________________________________________________________________________
|
||||
|
||||
*OOK OOK*
|
||||
|
||||
*"I may have been early, but I am not wrong"*
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/drux2rhae8571.png?width=1600&format=png&auto=webp&s=1a323916e05d9ef3327b7d7825c25385b7c02243)
|
||||
|
||||
🦍🦍🦍🦍🦍🦍🦍🦍🦍🦍🦍🦍🦍🦍🦍🦍🦍🦍🦍🦍🦍🦍🦍🦍🦍🦍🦍🦍🦍
|
268
Jungle-Beat-Archives/2021-06-15-Jungle-Beat.md
Normal file
268
Jungle-Beat-Archives/2021-06-15-Jungle-Beat.md
Normal file
@ -0,0 +1,268 @@
|
||||
The Jungle Beat- 06-15-2021- 005 IS OFFICIALLY IN THE HOUSE 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀
|
||||
======================================================================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/pinkcatsonacid](https://www.reddit.com/user/pinkcatsonacid/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/o0np51/the_jungle_beat_06152021_005_is_officially_in_the/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
[Daily News 🦍💎🙌🚀](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22Daily%20News%20%F0%9F%A6%8D%F0%9F%92%8E%F0%9F%99%8C%F0%9F%9A%80%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/vl0eafzinh571.png?width=1426&format=png&auto=webp&s=6d3ea311998d5d9c206c00173a126eb346020982)
|
||||
|
||||
u/Sharkbait_lol, u/grungromp, u/pinkcatsonacid, u/bye_triangle, u/redchessqueen99, u/Captain-Fan
|
||||
|
||||
__________________________________________________________________
|
||||
|
||||
🎤🎸🥁 🦍Welcome to the Jungle🦍🥁🎸🎤
|
||||
|
||||
__________________________________________________________________
|
||||
|
||||
Today's Recap 📉
|
||||
|
||||
$GME Closing Price: $222.50
|
||||
|
||||
Open Price: $226.36
|
||||
|
||||
Daily High: $229.25
|
||||
|
||||
Daily Low: $208.00
|
||||
|
||||
Volume: 7.2 MM
|
||||
|
||||
_____________________________________________________________________
|
||||
|
||||
🖍🍎🚌GME 101🚌🍎🖍
|
||||
|
||||
*If you're new to Superstonk, start here!*
|
||||
|
||||
[Superstonk FAQ](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/wiki/index/faq#wiki_how_do_i.2C_as_a_retail_investor.2C_stand_a_chance_against_the_hedge_funds.3F) (Updates coming soon)
|
||||
|
||||
[Superstonk Wiki](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/wiki/index)
|
||||
|
||||
NEW!! We will be having a "Smooth Brain Sunday Megathread" every Sunday as a place to ask all the questions you've been wanting to get answered! Please be advised that all answers provided are from individual users and, as always, any information you receive requires doing your own due diligence!!
|
||||
|
||||
The apes of [r/Superstonk](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/) sincerely appreciate the time and effort put into getting this information out there. 🦍🤝💪
|
||||
|
||||
_______________________________________________________________________________
|
||||
|
||||
We Like the Company! We Support the Company!
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/h5urj97nkh571.jpg?width=1080&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=b2d259f2f08be21cc251d0cc4e6846c4612fd84f)
|
||||
|
||||
Obviously you're a shareholder because you love Gamestop and have high hopes for its future. Supporting the company you love on the retail front is a great way for a shareholder to ensure a business' success! Here are several ways you can show your public support for Gamestop;
|
||||
|
||||
- [Shop at Gamestop.com](https://www.gamestop.com/) 🛒
|
||||
|
||||
- [Become a PowerUp Rewards Member](https://www.gamestop.com/poweruprewards/) ✊
|
||||
|
||||
- [... Which gets you a subscription to Game Informer Magazine](https://www.gameinformer.com/) 🚀
|
||||
|
||||
- [Follow Gamestop on Twitter](https://twitter.com/GameStop) 🦍
|
||||
|
||||
- [Subscribe to Gamestop's YouTube Channel](https://www.youtube.com/user/gamestopvideo) 🖍
|
||||
|
||||
- [Follow Gamestop on Twitch](https://www.twitch.tv/gamestop) 🎮
|
||||
|
||||
- [Follow Gamestop on Instagram](https://www.instagram.com/gamestop/?hl=en) 🌙
|
||||
|
||||
- [Follow Gamestop on Facebook](https://www.facebook.com/GameStop) 🦧
|
||||
|
||||
- [Apple Devices- Download the Gamestop App](https://apps.apple.com/us/app/gamestop/id406033647) (Link to App Store) 🍌
|
||||
|
||||
- [Android Devices- Download the Gamestop App](https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=com.gamestop.powerup) (Link to Play Shop) 📈
|
||||
|
||||
- Brands owned by Gamestop; ThinkGeek, GameInformer, [MicroMania](https://www.micromania.fr/), and [EB Games](https://www.ebgames.ca/) 💎
|
||||
|
||||
Please remember apes, as you are interacting with Gamestop Social Media, that their objective is to reach gamers and promote their brand to their demographic. Yes it's fun when they tweet MOASS and Chickie Tendies, but let's not flood them with comments about Ken, Naked Short Selling, and Mayonnaise. Let's show them support by joining, contributing to, and expanding their robust community of gamers!
|
||||
|
||||
_______________________________________________________________________________
|
||||
|
||||
DTC-2021-005 IS NOW LIVE
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/w89u7vh4sh571.png?width=450&format=png&auto=webp&s=9353444f4ed22fc523db417c45f52526908447a6)
|
||||
|
||||
RELEASE HER, u/RaxisX
|
||||
|
||||
[Link to the filing](https://www.dtcc.com/legal/sec-rule-filings)
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/krhb011xih571.png?width=907&format=png&auto=webp&s=3bc5e5dd3beb5f97bede0d1f201797e24ec88052)
|
||||
|
||||
credit u/Sharkbait_lol
|
||||
|
||||
AND IT'S EFFECTIVE IMMEDIATELY
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/izllxro5jh571.png?width=632&format=png&auto=webp&s=652040f562618a636cde93e48e1f86aa306bb678)
|
||||
|
||||
So what is 005?
|
||||
|
||||
DTCC-2021-005 Asset Tagging and Share Lending Revisions
|
||||
|
||||
*Prevents loaned/borrowed shares from being loaned/borrowed more than once.*
|
||||
|
||||
However, for posterity, please note the verbiage on page 15 of the filing.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/m82tudwyoh571.png?width=761&format=png&auto=webp&s=5f12baa59ab8a5d08ed1517309721e03277c2b13)
|
||||
|
||||
🤷♀️
|
||||
|
||||
Sounds like that might explain those new rehypothecation accounts Goldman suddenly has... But this could also be a sign that 005 isn't everything investors have been thinking it would be.
|
||||
|
||||
Update: Seeing lots of wrinkle brains saying #005 could still be tit-jacking, just might be plausible deniability after their lack of enforcement may have destroyed the world economy. Basically clarifying the rules they've been ignoring, and saying "ok we will enforce them now".
|
||||
|
||||
⚠ Proceed to hype with caution ⚠
|
||||
|
||||
[There was also a closed meeting today of the Board of governors of the Federal Reserve System to discuss monetary policy issues.](https://www.federalreserve.gov/aboutthefed/boardmeetings/20210615closed.htm)
|
||||
|
||||
Followed by a Press conference where Vice President and Treasury Secretary mentions "we must reimagine our economy" AT THE SAME TIME 005 WAS FILED.
|
||||
|
||||
L.F.G.🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀
|
||||
|
||||
_______________________________________________________________________________
|
||||
|
||||
Community Spotlight- [u/zedinstead](https://www.reddit.com/u/zedinstead/)
|
||||
|
||||
Superstonk Lineup
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/yvx3au7nfh571.png?width=640&format=png&auto=webp&s=16bb77e46e70aa952c98dac537318978c3573fb8)
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/se7ibs5qfh571.png?width=640&format=png&auto=webp&s=ef45410e9f4016e8a39d0fea81a8f183fd3b30c6)
|
||||
|
||||
[u/zedinstead](https://www.reddit.com/u/zedinstead/) is an ape with some unreal talent! Not only does he make cool graphics like these...
|
||||
|
||||
🍿🎥 HE MADE A MEME MOVIE 🍿🎥
|
||||
|
||||
1. [Opening Credits/Box of Crayola](https://old.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nk727h/the_forrest_gump_gme_meme_movie_opening/)
|
||||
|
||||
2. [Trades that just don't make no sense](https://old.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nz5m99/the_forrest_gump_gme_meme_movie_continues/)
|
||||
|
||||
3. [Brick and mortar stores](https://old.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/niyzbo/i_was_just_showing_him_a_thing_or_two_about_brick/)
|
||||
|
||||
4. [GME and Me like peas and carrots](https://old.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nhafm9/gme_and_me_was_like_peas_and_carrots/)
|
||||
|
||||
5. [BUY like the wind blows](https://old.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/ni2f24/you_wouldnt_believe_me_if_i_told_you_but_i_could/)
|
||||
|
||||
6. [Make me a rocket](https://old.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nwvhse/if_they_keep_delaying_moass_then_im_just_going_to/)
|
||||
|
||||
7. [He sure can BUY](https://old.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nx37d3/how_many_forrest_gump_memes_can_i_make_while_they/)
|
||||
|
||||
8. [Have you ever read the DD?](https://old.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nzab86/if_they_continue_to_delay_moass_then_i_will/)
|
||||
|
||||
9. [Shill Sergeant](https://old.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nhthsk/answer_every_fud_question_with_buy_and_hodl_shill/)
|
||||
|
||||
10. [DIAMOND HANDS](https://old.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nhzqnf/take_care_of_your_diamond_hands_and_dont_do/)
|
||||
|
||||
11. [Didn't quit for 4 months](https://old.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nh2af3/one_day_we_started_buying_gme_and_we_didnt_quit/)
|
||||
|
||||
12. [MOASS: Day 1](https://old.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/njypx0/moass_day_1_just_like_that_somebody_stopped/)
|
||||
|
||||
13. [Twitter Posts](https://old.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/niu0ik/they_said_it_was_million_dollars_a_share_but_the/)
|
||||
|
||||
14. [HODL Pong](https://old.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nj7vmi/for_some_reason_hodling_shares_of_gme_came_very/)
|
||||
|
||||
15. [8-K Filing Speech](https://old.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nwojpq/the_forrest_gump_gme_meme_movie_part_11_of_15_the/)
|
||||
|
||||
16. [Why are you so good to me? Cause you're my stonk](https://old.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nxo453/delay_moass_ill_just_keep_on_buying_and_adding/)
|
||||
|
||||
17. [Lights are on in that building](https://old.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nibq23/the_lights_are_on_and_i_think_there_is_some/)
|
||||
|
||||
18. [I'm not a smart man, but I know what HODL is](https://old.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nhtiaj/im_not_a_smart_man_but_i_know_what_hodl_is/)
|
||||
|
||||
19. [I just like the stock](https://old.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nhif1u/when_i_suffered_fud_i_read_the_dd_when_i_got/)
|
||||
|
||||
20. [It's the most beautiful DD I've ever seen](https://old.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nhf8mf/its_the_most_beautiful_dd_ive_ever_seen_but_is_he/)
|
||||
|
||||
Seriously unreal talent in this community!
|
||||
|
||||
_______________________________________________________________________________
|
||||
|
||||
Worth Repeating- We Just Like the Stock!!
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/9g82ltqmlh571.png?width=480&format=png&auto=webp&s=3b461af036d5ce9c3da97a20d8a01e8764014fa6)
|
||||
|
||||
There has been a lot of conversation (FUD) over the weekend about "Fuck you, pay me" and referring to being involved with trading $GME simply because you want to become rich and purely to trigger MOASS. Or because "we're Occupy Wall St. 2.0!" (NO).
|
||||
|
||||
THESE ARE NOT THE PURPOSE, INTENT, OR COLLECTIVE SENTIMENT OF THIS SUBREDDIT.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/3kpf14lnlh571.png?width=603&format=png&auto=webp&s=c8782761d730c8f40a8f25ef9ddffed31c3b6d9b)
|
||||
|
||||
Superstonk is a community of individual investors that believe Gamestop as a company is an excellent long-term investment that has huge potential in an untapped market with an Avengers-level team of executives that will likely redefine the face of retail in the 21st century. This community was not made to discuss other stocks the way /WSB or /investing do. This sub is a congregation of individuals- in that sense, a collective "we or us"- that supports the vision of the company Gamestop long-term, especially its current chairman, Ryan Cohen. We like the company. We like the stock. That's it.
|
||||
|
||||
And a little refresher on the we/us debate- WHEN WE SAY "WE OR US", WE ARE TALKING ABOUT THE SUB'S COLLECTIVE WE/US AS A COMMUNITY. There is nothing wrong with that!
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/gcgti8yolh571.png?width=740&format=png&auto=webp&s=8194c5c15d9225b88e5ff6a6bf603cedf7574e58)
|
||||
|
||||
Use of the words We/Us are NOT EVIDENCE OF MARKET MANIPULATION.
|
||||
|
||||
Enforcement is the *key* to a manipulation case. Do we make paper hands actually pay some sort of penance for selling? NO. Do we have an agreed upon floor price that we all must adhere to? Umm..... :gestures broadly at literally everyone debating possible floor price:
|
||||
|
||||
Market manipulation is doing something to inflate or deflate the price of a stock. THESE are the ESTABLISHED GROUNDS for charging someone with market manipulation. And do you know how many times that's happened? [Like 5 times. And they were all people in the industry.](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/n22g01/breakdown_of_legalese_to_speak_part_5_market/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3)
|
||||
|
||||
There's no case for market manipulation in this subreddit, or even in the GME Saga as a whole.
|
||||
|
||||
Well, I lied. Hedgies are doing plenty.
|
||||
|
||||
So when you see people referring to "we" or "us", *they aren't doing anything wrong.* This is a community, right? Everyone here isn't just a figment of your imagination right? (RIGHT?!?)
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/zycjeejklh571.png?width=800&format=png&auto=webp&s=07af020341a84d13ee318088231183cfe4cb4e07)
|
||||
|
||||
Y'all aren't imaginary, right?
|
||||
|
||||
We are a community of individually-minded investors. And no one can stop us from liking and discussing a stock. That's what they want you to think. Saying "we" or "us" when talking about Superstonk is just talking about the membership of this subreddit. There is nothing there that's illegal or negative in and of itself. All "we" do is gather here and discuss the future of a company we all love and have invested in because we believe in the future of the leadership.
|
||||
|
||||
What's the difference between our sub and the idea dinners the rich have been attending for decades? *The expense report*. Do you remember when American Politicians used insider information about the pandemic to profit off of the resulting crash? APES REMEMBER. Don't let FUD stop you from bonding with your fellow ape. Companionship is essential to the human experience. Get in here and love each other. It's Woodstonk 2021 up in here✌💖🌼☮
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/9zwpfqbjlh571.png?width=549&format=png&auto=webp&s=d937473562cef3861c81af1386c12c8170e2d901)
|
||||
|
||||
With that being said, WE HAVE NO LEADER HERE. [r/Superstonk](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/) has administrative users that moderate the community according to site rules. That's it! When it comes to leaders, mods are just the administrators of the environment. The groundskeepers in this beautiful jungle. This community was built by apes, for apes. With no one user more important than the other. APE= All People Equal ✊ No politics. No religion. No leaders. No divisiveness. Just excellence and the stock we love.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/0pi5ys2ilh571.png?width=1000&format=png&auto=webp&s=42101742a577050aa7731ab34e0568065fd40439)
|
||||
|
||||
WE DON'T HAVE ONE!
|
||||
|
||||
Here's a few notes from [u/redchessqueen99](https://www.reddit.com/u/redchessqueen99/)'s Weekend Update
|
||||
|
||||
1. Please view the DISCLAIMER associated with the subreddit. You can access it by going to [r/Superstonk](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/) and (on Desktop) looking at the side bar, and (on Mobile) under the About menu.
|
||||
|
||||
2. We do not manipulate the market. We do not coordinate anything regarding the stock market. We do not urge people to buy or sell, or do anything with what is their privately owned stock. We do not shame people for their choices as retail investors, in an attempt to get them to hold when they don't want to, or to buy GME when they'd rather buy something else. We let retail investors make their own individual decisions. That's sub policy.
|
||||
|
||||
3. We do not organize or attempt to push political action, or spark Occupy Wall Street 2.0 or whatever some of you think this is. We are not going to organize letters to the SEC or otherwise enter ourselves into a political arena that we, trust me, do not want to enter. We are a bunch of apes who are bananas for GameStop and that's about it.
|
||||
|
||||
4. We are here to share information, build a community, and express ourselves regarding GameStop as not just a stock, but also as a company, in way that is not pressuring or purposefully influential, and is based on fundamentals as well as market realities. If you don't want to talk about GameStop, there are plenty of other subs to go to, and, if you talk about GameStop, make sure you follow the rules and guidelines of the sub.
|
||||
|
||||
5. TL;DR: We like the stock. We love the company. We are apes. That's about it.
|
||||
|
||||
🦍🦍🦍🦍🦍🦍🦍🦍🦍🦍🦍🦍🦍🦍🦍🦍🦍🦍🦍🦍🦍🦍🦍🦍🦍🦍
|
||||
|
||||
_______________________________________________________________________________
|
||||
|
||||
🚨 Reddit down 🚨
|
||||
|
||||
With Reddit having issues during high traffic, exciting moments in this saga, we have discussed what to do if Reddit has an outage.
|
||||
|
||||
IF REDDIT GOES DOWN AT A PIVOTAL MOMENT A LARGE PORTION OF THE MOD TEAM IS ON TWITTER.
|
||||
|
||||
<https://twitter.com/ByeTriangle>
|
||||
|
||||
<https://twitter.com/PinkCatsOnAcid>
|
||||
|
||||
<https://twitter.com/RedChessQueen99>
|
||||
|
||||
<https://twitter.com/rensole>
|
||||
|
||||
<https://twitter.com/u_sharkbaitlol>
|
||||
|
||||
<https://twitter.com/BradduckF>
|
||||
|
||||
IF THERE IS SOMETHING BIG GOING ON WHILE THE OUTAGE IS HAPPENING WE MAY ALSO UTILIZE THE "EMERGENCY BROADCAST SYSTEM" TO RELAY INFO:
|
||||
|
||||
[SuperstonkLive YouTube - Emergency Broadcast System](https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCI4EET9NJPWxUuXGlG6fxPA)
|
||||
|
||||
___________________________________________________________________________________
|
||||
|
||||
*OOK OOK*
|
||||
|
||||
*"I may have been early, but I am not wrong"*
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/c0t0eputlh571.png?width=1600&format=png&auto=webp&s=cb919467a2cccd4901d8a139a1bc93fdd44e6030)
|
258
Jungle-Beat-Archives/2021-06-16-Jungle-Beat.md
Normal file
258
Jungle-Beat-Archives/2021-06-16-Jungle-Beat.md
Normal file
@ -0,0 +1,258 @@
|
||||
The Jungle Beat- Wednesday 06-16-2021- The Award Design Contest is Live!! 🦍🥁🚀
|
||||
================================================================================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/pinkcatsonacid](https://www.reddit.com/user/pinkcatsonacid/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/o1eg9g/the_jungle_beat_wednesday_06162021_the_award/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
[Daily News 🦍💎🙌🚀](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22Daily%20News%20%F0%9F%A6%8D%F0%9F%92%8E%F0%9F%99%8C%F0%9F%9A%80%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/4boo3ay3ho571.png?width=1426&format=png&auto=webp&s=c3422eabf17e4950c003e2b51fd58bcfc2f0eb83)
|
||||
|
||||
u/pinkcatsonacid, u/bye_triangle, u/redchessqueen99
|
||||
|
||||
__________________________________________________________________
|
||||
|
||||
🎤🎸🥁 🦍Welcome to the Jungle🦍🥁🎸🎤
|
||||
|
||||
__________________________________________________________________
|
||||
|
||||
Today's Recap 📈
|
||||
|
||||
$GME Closing Price: $222.97
|
||||
|
||||
Open Price: $215.24
|
||||
|
||||
Daily High: $228.73
|
||||
|
||||
Daily Low: $209.00
|
||||
|
||||
Volume: 5.52 MM
|
||||
|
||||
_____________________________________________________________________
|
||||
|
||||
🖍🍎🚌GME 101🚌🍎🖍
|
||||
|
||||
*If you're new to Superstonk, start here!*
|
||||
|
||||
[Superstonk FAQ](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/wiki/index/faq#wiki_how_do_i.2C_as_a_retail_investor.2C_stand_a_chance_against_the_hedge_funds.3F) (Updates coming soon)
|
||||
|
||||
[Superstonk Wiki](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/wiki/index)
|
||||
|
||||
NEW!! We will be having a "Smooth Brain Sunday Megathread" every Sunday as a place to ask all the questions you've been wanting to get answered! Please be advised that all answers provided are from individual users and, as always, any information you receive requires doing your own due diligence!!
|
||||
|
||||
The apes of [r/Superstonk](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/) sincerely appreciate the time and effort put into getting this information out there. 🦍🤝💪
|
||||
|
||||
_______________________________________________________________________________
|
||||
|
||||
*Alright guys...*
|
||||
|
||||
The first edition of today's JBeat contained a correction that 005 was not in effect just yet, and followed up with a link to the DTCC website to confirm. Well, that info was wrong. So I have deleted the part of the post relevant to that discovery.
|
||||
|
||||
We are back to where we hoped we were.
|
||||
|
||||
#005 appears to be in effect
|
||||
|
||||
____________________________________________________________________________
|
||||
|
||||
Superstonk Community Award Contest!
|
||||
|
||||
text and awesome artwork by [u/redchessqueen99](https://www.reddit.com/u/redchessqueen99/)
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/r096resxco571.png?width=1000&format=png&auto=webp&s=ea2bfe2f71e168c47e343024fe6c3de46cf18301)
|
||||
|
||||
What are Community Awards?
|
||||
|
||||
Regular "awards" are purchased with Coins, a mechanism of Reddit that ultimately requires real money to purchase packs of coins that can then be spent on awards for posts and comments. [r/Superstonk](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/) does not receive any money when they are purchased, but it does receive Coins when users gift Community Awards.
|
||||
|
||||
> Community Awards are unique to each community, and members can give them to each other. Moderators can design and name the Awards however they want.A portion of Coins from Community Award purchases will be deposited to the community's Coin balance. Moderators can use Coins from that balance to reward members with Mod Awards. The Coin balance is shown only to moderators in the community's sidebar.
|
||||
|
||||
Moderators do NOT have access to the [r/Superstonk](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/) coin bank other than to give Community Awards on this sub to quality posts and comments. Moderators do NOT receive any coins personally, and only certain mods with permissions can access the coin bank for this purpose.
|
||||
|
||||
Community Award: Any user can gift this award for an amount of Coins (min. 500) to a post or comment. Each of these awards will also gift Coins to [r/Superstonk](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/) itself, allowing mods to give mod-exclusive awards. For example, a 500 Coin Community Award also gives the subreddit 100 Coins.
|
||||
|
||||
Mod-Exclusive Community Award: These awards are purchased using the Coins available only to mods from the [r/Superstonk](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/) Coin bank, and give a certain amount of Reddit Premium to the recipient. For example, a 1800 Coin Mod-Exclusive Community Award will grant one month of Reddit Premium.
|
||||
|
||||
*Reddit Premium gives 700 monthly coins, access to Premium Awards, and more. Learn about it here:* [*https://www.reddit.com/premium*](https://www.reddit.com/premium)
|
||||
|
||||
Currently, we have two Community Awards: the Superstonk Award (500 Coins, giftable by members), and the Not-A-Cat Golden Bananya Award (1800 Coins, giftable by mods only).
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/3zt0z0k7go571.png?width=1000&format=png&auto=webp&s=7996b03275f2caba2751f31de5c004427d24b2cf)
|
||||
|
||||
Ape Not Fight Ape, unless for top prize!
|
||||
|
||||
Award Contest
|
||||
|
||||
We ask you, [r/Superstonk](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/) members and lurkers, to use your best design skills to create award icons that we can then place into the Community Awards. You will need to think of a great name, too, but note we must keep it (mostly) family friendly. We are limiting to one design/name per submission, so make it good!
|
||||
|
||||
The top eight designs will be made into the following awards:
|
||||
|
||||
- 5th-8th: Community Award (cost: 500 Coins, 100 to [r/Superstonk](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/))
|
||||
|
||||
- 4th: Community Award (cost: 1000 Coins, 200 to [r/Superstonk](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/))
|
||||
|
||||
- 3rd: Community Award (cost: 2000 Coins, 400 to [r/Superstonk](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/))
|
||||
|
||||
- 2nd: Mod-Exclusive Award for 1-month Premium (mod cost: 1800 Coins)
|
||||
|
||||
- 1st: Mod-Exclusive Award for 3-month Premium (mod cost: 5400 Coins)
|
||||
|
||||
Additionally, 1st and 2nd place will receive FOUR of the new 3-month Premium mod-exclusive awards on their top posts and/or comments, 3rd and 4th place will receive ONE of the new 3-month Premium mod-exclusive award, and 5th, 6th, 7th, and 8th place will each receive ONE of the new 1-month Premium mod-exclusive award. This will effectively win you Coins and Premium membership, as well as serious clout from designing an official sub award.
|
||||
|
||||
To submit, please follow the guidelines below.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/ssjx6vpcgo571.png?width=1000&format=png&auto=webp&s=c54aab4ade98818d338c7095b270c6cf9d4ea7c8)
|
||||
|
||||
Welcome to the Jungle
|
||||
|
||||
Submissions must adhere to the following:
|
||||
|
||||
- Image file attached to email with these attributes:
|
||||
|
||||
- Design Image: PNG with alpha layer (or) animated GIF with alpha layer
|
||||
|
||||
- If a gif, we cannot guarantee it will work in our bracket system (will try)
|
||||
|
||||
- Must be square crop (1:1 ratio)
|
||||
|
||||
- Width and height should be equal, and at least 512px
|
||||
|
||||
- File size limited to 2MB
|
||||
|
||||
- Name of Award (Appropriate Titles Only; otherwise we will change it)
|
||||
|
||||
- Username of Artist (must have history on [r/Superstonk](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/) without Ban)
|
||||
|
||||
- One submission per user
|
||||
|
||||
- Rules must be followed; NSFW or improper designs/titles will be disqualified
|
||||
|
||||
- Designs must be original content, or created by submitter; no copying from Google Images or stealing others' work
|
||||
|
||||
- (optional) Include a hyperlink to the image as backup (i.e. Imgur)
|
||||
|
||||
PLEASE FOLLOW THESE 👆 REQUIREMENTS OR YOUR SUBMISSION WILL BE REJECTED.💎 Send submissions to <superstonk_mods@protonmail.com>
|
||||
|
||||
*We will not accept awards tagged in posts, sent by Message or Chat, or over Discord. We encourage you to* *create a separate email* *if you want to remain anonymous, but we will not release any details regarding the submissions process, other than the username provided during submission.*
|
||||
|
||||
💎 DEADLINE - Sunday, June 20 @ 4:00 p.m. EST or 120 total submissions received
|
||||
|
||||
Timezone Deadlines: 1:00 p.m. PST / 2:00 p.m. CST / 4:00 p.m. EST / 10:00 p.m. UTC / 6:00 a.m. AEST
|
||||
|
||||
We reserve the right to deny any images that do not meet these requirements. The contest will remain open until we receive 120 entries or until the deadline; whichever comes first. If you are late with submission, or if the contest closes due to the limit, you will sadly not be included. The early ape gets the banana!
|
||||
|
||||
*By submitting your design to this contest, you are agreed to allow the subreddit* [r/Superstonk](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/) *to use it for a Community Award image, without end date, and the design will remain a part of* [r/Superstonk](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/) *in this context indefinitely. The subreddit will not claim any copyright over the designs submitted, or use them for any other purpose.*
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/pmky6nbmgo571.png?width=1000&format=png&auto=webp&s=731fa3fc1adb710f72800c776be5ac87a11628cf)
|
||||
|
||||
TLDR: Make some awesome designs and send them in. The first 120 submissions will be included in the contest, if submitted by the deadline, and the top eight will win mod-exclusive awards (Reddit Premium) and have their designs featured as official [r/Superstonk](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/) awards.
|
||||
|
||||
Thank you again for participating in the contest and good luck, apes!
|
||||
|
||||
back to [u/pinkcatsonacid](https://www.reddit.com/u/pinkcatsonacid/)
|
||||
|
||||
_______________________________________________________________________________
|
||||
|
||||
Community Spotlight- [u/Criand](https://www.reddit.com/u/Criand/)
|
||||
|
||||
Put on your helmets. This one is as much of a blow to your senses as the Everything Short by [u/atobitt](https://www.reddit.com/u/atobitt/)
|
||||
|
||||
[The Bigger Short. How 2008 is repeating, at a much greater magnitude, and COVID ignited the fuse. GME is not the reason for the market crash. GME was the fatal flaw of Wall Street in their infinite money cheat that they did not expect (link).](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/o0scoy/the_bigger_short_how_2008_is_repeating_at_a_much/)
|
||||
|
||||
Excellent DD just keeps getting cranked out by Criand. Kudos to you, ape and thank you for your wrinkliest of contributions as you continue to bring top-tier research to the sub. Fist bump. Knowledge is power. 💎✊
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/sg7sh9qsro571.jpg?width=540&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=28129e32bfdff0323d77124ad90cc2d7cdae04a9)
|
||||
|
||||
Also, I'm v angy now. 🤬
|
||||
|
||||
________________________________________________________________________________
|
||||
|
||||
The Federal Open Market Committee- FOMC- Press Conference
|
||||
|
||||
🚀"LIFTOFF"🚀
|
||||
|
||||
Chairman Powell held a press conference of the FOMC today telling us all about how the Federal Reserve is totally chill and everything is totally fine and just BE COOL AND STAY CALM WE HAVE GOT THIS UNDER CONTROL
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/8qce8xsgmo571.jpg?width=606&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=5df33a25f53409b6317d31cb94a9ac79d79cbd4a)
|
||||
|
||||
narrator voice: but it wasn't fine
|
||||
|
||||
[Watch the Press Conference here](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZmqH8GnuJfM)
|
||||
|
||||
_______________________________________________________________________________
|
||||
|
||||
ICYMI- Burry's Back
|
||||
|
||||
Dr. Michael J. Burry has re-emerged from hiding.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/qd2kjgjiqo571.jpg?width=1080&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=9de00ad58de7aeb57e57798164cbcab1130b93f2)
|
||||
|
||||
[Here's the link if you're interested in following him on twitter!](https://twitter.com/michaeljburry)
|
||||
|
||||
_______________________________________________________________________________
|
||||
|
||||
We Like the Company! We Support the Company!
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/y3hk8zuvpo571.jpg?width=1920&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=da19e6eda81bc8600ee2ff8ed9f6e4e8e61b731e)
|
||||
|
||||
Obviously you're a shareholder because you love Gamestop and have high hopes for its future. Supporting the company you love on the retail front is a great way for a shareholder to ensure a business' success! Here are several ways you can show your public support for Gamestop;
|
||||
|
||||
- [Shop at Gamestop.com](https://www.gamestop.com/) 🛒
|
||||
|
||||
- [Become a PowerUp Rewards Member](https://www.gamestop.com/poweruprewards/) ✊
|
||||
|
||||
- [... Which gets you a subscription to Game Informer Magazine](https://www.gameinformer.com/) 🚀
|
||||
|
||||
- [Follow Gamestop on Twitter](https://twitter.com/GameStop) 🦍
|
||||
|
||||
- [Subscribe to Gamestop's YouTube Channel](https://www.youtube.com/user/gamestopvideo) 🖍
|
||||
|
||||
- [Follow Gamestop on Twitch](https://www.twitch.tv/gamestop) 🎮
|
||||
|
||||
- [Follow Gamestop on Instagram](https://www.instagram.com/gamestop/?hl=en) 🌙
|
||||
|
||||
- [Follow Gamestop on Facebook](https://www.facebook.com/GameStop) 🦧
|
||||
|
||||
- [Apple Devices- Download the Gamestop App](https://apps.apple.com/us/app/gamestop/id406033647) (Link to App Store) 🍌
|
||||
|
||||
- [Android Devices- Download the Gamestop App](https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=com.gamestop.powerup) (Link to Play Shop) 📈
|
||||
|
||||
- Brands owned by Gamestop; ThinkGeek, GameInformer, [MicroMania](https://www.micromania.fr/), and [EB Games](https://www.ebgames.ca/) 💎
|
||||
|
||||
Please remember apes, as you are interacting with Gamestop Social Media, that their objective is to reach gamers and promote their brand to their demographic. Yes it's fun when they tweet MOASS and Chickie Tendies, but let's not flood them with comments about Ken, Naked Short Selling, and Mayonnaise. Let's show them support by joining, contributing to, and expanding their robust community of gamers!
|
||||
|
||||
_______________________________________________________________________________
|
||||
|
||||
🚨 Reddit down 🚨
|
||||
|
||||
With Reddit having issues during high traffic, exciting moments in this saga, we have discussed what to do if Reddit has an outage.
|
||||
|
||||
IF REDDIT GOES DOWN AT A PIVOTAL MOMENT A LARGE PORTION OF THE MOD TEAM IS ON TWITTER.
|
||||
|
||||
<https://twitter.com/ByeTriangle>
|
||||
|
||||
<https://twitter.com/PinkCatsOnAcid>
|
||||
|
||||
<https://twitter.com/RedChessQueen99>
|
||||
|
||||
<https://twitter.com/rensole>
|
||||
|
||||
<https://twitter.com/u_sharkbaitlol>
|
||||
|
||||
<https://twitter.com/BradduckF>
|
||||
|
||||
IF THERE IS SOMETHING BIG GOING ON WHILE THE OUTAGE IS HAPPENING WE MAY ALSO UTILIZE THE "EMERGENCY BROADCAST SYSTEM" TO RELAY INFO:
|
||||
|
||||
[SuperstonkLive YouTube - Emergency Broadcast System](https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCI4EET9NJPWxUuXGlG6fxPA)
|
||||
|
||||
___________________________________________________________________________________
|
||||
|
||||
*OOK OOK*
|
||||
|
||||
*"I may have been early, but I am not wrong"*
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/mz80h1o5so571.png?width=1600&format=png&auto=webp&s=b675be4fe3058f64da776ee72516c5fa724dd228)
|
||||
|
||||
🦍🦍🦍🦍🦍🦍🦍🦍🦍🦍🦍🦍🦍🦍🦍🦍🦍
|
214
Jungle-Beat-Archives/2021-06-17-Jungle-Beat.md
Normal file
214
Jungle-Beat-Archives/2021-06-17-Jungle-Beat.md
Normal file
@ -0,0 +1,214 @@
|
||||
The Jungle Beat- Thursday 06-17-2021 Can't Stop, Won't Stop 🚀🚀🚀
|
||||
==================================================================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/pinkcatsonacid](https://www.reddit.com/user/pinkcatsonacid/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/o26u5t/the_jungle_beat_thursday_06172021_cant_stop_wont/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
[Daily News 🦍💎🙌🚀](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22Daily%20News%20%F0%9F%A6%8D%F0%9F%92%8E%F0%9F%99%8C%F0%9F%9A%80%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/jgem2a68nu571.png?width=1426&format=png&auto=webp&s=33d2e8e6888f8bcba670f9e0386edb65b6b104ba)
|
||||
|
||||
__________________________________________________________________
|
||||
|
||||
🎤🎸🥁 🦍Welcome to the Jungle🦍🥁🎸🎤
|
||||
|
||||
__________________________________________________________________
|
||||
|
||||
Today's Recap 📈
|
||||
|
||||
$GME Closing Price: $223.59
|
||||
|
||||
Open Price: $224.00
|
||||
|
||||
Daily High: $233.66
|
||||
|
||||
Daily Low: $221.48
|
||||
|
||||
Volume: 4.5 MM
|
||||
|
||||
_____________________________________________________________________
|
||||
|
||||
🖍🍎🚌GME 101🚌🍎🖍
|
||||
|
||||
*If you're new to Superstonk, start here!*
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/40sdwgdosv571.jpg?width=810&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=41d11ab2da32a628930c11dd818ca0917de875a7)
|
||||
|
||||
possible, it is
|
||||
|
||||
[Superstonk FAQ](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/wiki/index/faq#wiki_how_do_i.2C_as_a_retail_investor.2C_stand_a_chance_against_the_hedge_funds.3F) (Updates coming soon)
|
||||
|
||||
[Superstonk Wiki](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/wiki/index)
|
||||
|
||||
NEW!! We will be having a "Smooth Brain Sunday Megathread" every Sunday as a place to ask all the questions you've been wanting to get answered! Please be advised that all answers provided are from individual users and, as always, any information you receive requires doing your own due diligence!!
|
||||
|
||||
The apes of [r/Superstonk](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/) sincerely appreciate the time and effort put into getting this information out there. 🦍🤝💪
|
||||
|
||||
_______________________________________________________________________________
|
||||
|
||||
NYSE President- 'Meme' stock prices may not properly reflect demand
|
||||
|
||||
I hate the words "meme stock" but that's the headline
|
||||
|
||||
[Link to the Reuters article](https://www.reuters.com/business/meme-stock-prices-may-not-properly-reflect-demand-nyse-president-2021-06-16/)
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/yfd129fqzu571.png?width=800&format=png&auto=webp&s=93106d4e6324812d1879dcb726e75ca7af7f7294)
|
||||
|
||||
> Retail brokers say payment for order flow lowers overall costs for individual traders.
|
||||
>
|
||||
> But the practice raises conflict of interest questions and will be included in a [broad review of stock market rules](https://www.reuters.com/legal/litigation/us-sec-chair-gensler-staff-recommend-rules-ensure-fair-competition-between-2021-06-09/), Gary Gensler, chair of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, said last week.
|
||||
>
|
||||
> The review will also examine whether off-exchange trading - which is about 50% of the market when institutional block trades are included - distorts the price discovery mechanism for stocks, Gensler said.
|
||||
|
||||
I wOnDeR iF iT's DiStOrTeD....
|
||||
|
||||
[This post by](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/o1tzje/it_actually_is_big_when_the_nyse_president_says/) [OP](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/o1tzje/it_actually_is_big_when_the_nyse_president_says/) [u/delicious_manboobs](https://www.reddit.com/user/delicious_manboobs/) [explains why it's kinda' a big deal that the head of NYSE said such a thing. o7 to you, delicious manboobs](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/o1tzje/it_actually_is_big_when_the_nyse_president_says/) 🙌.
|
||||
|
||||
_______________________________________________________________________________
|
||||
|
||||
$GME is Primed to Join the Russell 1000
|
||||
|
||||
So what is the Russell 1000 and why is this a huge deal for the future of GME?
|
||||
|
||||
[From investopedia:](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/r/russell_1000index.asp)
|
||||
|
||||
KEY TAKEAWAYS
|
||||
|
||||
- The Russell 1000 Index represents the top 1000 companies by market capitalization in the United States.
|
||||
|
||||
- The index is a subset of the Russell 3000 Index.
|
||||
|
||||
- The Russell 1000 index comprises about 92% of the total market cap of all listed stocks in the U.S. equity market.
|
||||
|
||||
- It is considered a bellwether index for large-cap investing.
|
||||
|
||||
- Performance and characteristics of the index are provided monthly by FTSE Russell.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/ykth1xsqvv571.jpg?width=940&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=b74f4fa51caca9db1803d0dcf61771b89ca47482)
|
||||
|
||||
The official announcements will be made on June 28th. Until then, it's technically speculative based on qualifications. [But major news sources are reporting it already.](https://www.barrons.com/articles/gamestop-amc-russell-1000-51623883459)
|
||||
|
||||
Next stop, S&P 500
|
||||
|
||||
To be eligible for S&P 500 index inclusion, a company should be a U.S. company✅ , have a market capitalization of at least USD 11.8 billion ✅, be highly liquid✅✅ , have a public float of at least 10% of its shares outstanding✅ , and its most recent quarter's earnings and the sum of its trailing four consecutive quarters' earnings must be positive 👀
|
||||
|
||||
_______________________________________________________________________________
|
||||
|
||||
RRP Hits Record High at $755.8 Billion
|
||||
|
||||
*That's $200 Billion growth in 24 hours.*
|
||||
|
||||
So we broke the previous record by $200B. Overnight. Yay, winning!
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/d8g8efwxgv571.png?width=693&format=png&auto=webp&s=1af45fc697ad56370847af35a8a012806114432d)
|
||||
|
||||
Credit u/pctracer
|
||||
|
||||
And a table of historical (recent) rrp data for you....
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/vrrn9fj9iv571.jpg?width=971&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=21e0c5e6093bb6fd00f823cda4384b6b06c5ee79)
|
||||
|
||||
Table of historical RRP by u/LeftHandedWave
|
||||
|
||||
Also... "Liftoff"- JPow Makin it go Brrr Again (banks r fuk)
|
||||
|
||||
We covered it yesterday, but I've seen lots of conversation around yesterday's Fed press conference. And yes, JPow really said "Liftoff". Tbf, he's talking about inflation, I believe.
|
||||
|
||||
[Around the 23m mark is when he says "liftoff"](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fJ0EQHxPZd8)
|
||||
|
||||
[This ape did a partial transcript of the Q&A portion of the Press Conference!](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/o1do4y/transcript_of_jpow_press_conference_16_june_2021/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3)
|
||||
|
||||
*So what does all this mean?*
|
||||
|
||||
...I NEED AN ADULT!
|
||||
|
||||
Basically, the Fed decided to increase the interest paid on their ~~junk~~ Treasury Bonds from 0% to 0.05%. So it's more profitable for big banks to park their overflowing cash with the Fed. *Basically, the banks have too much cash so the Fed is giving them more cash- taps brain.*
|
||||
|
||||
The idea here is that taking some of this money out of circulation of the banks will serve to DEFLATE some of the INFLATION concerns. We shall see. 🤷♀️
|
||||
|
||||
______________________________________________________________________________
|
||||
|
||||
TL;DR: Regulations Edition [Updated 2021-06-17 to include SR-NYSEAMER-2021-29]- [u/stevetheimpact](https://www.reddit.com/u/stevetheimpact/)
|
||||
|
||||
[Link to OP](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/o1vquv/tldr_regulations_edition_updated_20210617_to/)
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/iiv8vkctav571.png?width=960&format=png&auto=webp&s=064481989a64a4b5e48c83212dbc72720fa29d1d)
|
||||
|
||||
______________________________________________________________________________
|
||||
|
||||
And on that note... we printed a correction yesterday regarding 005, saying that we were wrong, and 005 is not in effect yet.
|
||||
|
||||
That was bad information and it was like we originally thought... 005 is in effect, immediately upon filing.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/q0wsj6z5uv571.jpg?width=638&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=51983497d466fe5ea4d3c1155abc7b090657e332)
|
||||
|
||||
found, filed, and effective!!
|
||||
|
||||
______________________________________________________________________________
|
||||
|
||||
We Like the Company! We Support the Company!
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/lgvc8d3ivv571.jpg?width=1080&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=a81f6550fda62c37cecc4b8f0bd5f94b3b4d604c)
|
||||
|
||||
Obviously you're a shareholder because you love Gamestop and have high hopes for its future. Supporting the company you love on the retail front is a great way for a shareholder to ensure a business' success! Here are several ways you can show your public support for Gamestop;
|
||||
|
||||
- [Shop at Gamestop.com](https://www.gamestop.com/) 🛒
|
||||
|
||||
- [Become a PowerUp Rewards Member](https://www.gamestop.com/poweruprewards/) ✊
|
||||
|
||||
- [... Which gets you a subscription to Game Informer Magazine](https://www.gameinformer.com/) 🚀
|
||||
|
||||
- [Follow Gamestop on Twitter](https://twitter.com/GameStop) 🦍
|
||||
|
||||
- [Subscribe to Gamestop's YouTube Channel](https://www.youtube.com/user/gamestopvideo) 🖍
|
||||
|
||||
- [Follow Gamestop on Twitch](https://www.twitch.tv/gamestop) 🎮
|
||||
|
||||
- [Follow Gamestop on Instagram](https://www.instagram.com/gamestop/?hl=en) 🌙
|
||||
|
||||
- [Follow Gamestop on Facebook](https://www.facebook.com/GameStop) 🦧
|
||||
|
||||
- [Apple Devices- Download the Gamestop App](https://apps.apple.com/us/app/gamestop/id406033647) (Link to App Store) 🍌
|
||||
|
||||
- [Android Devices- Download the Gamestop App](https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=com.gamestop.powerup) (Link to Play Shop) 📈
|
||||
|
||||
- Brands owned by Gamestop; ThinkGeek, GameInformer, [MicroMania](https://www.micromania.fr/), and [EB Games](https://www.ebgames.ca/) 💎
|
||||
|
||||
Please remember apes, as you are interacting with Gamestop Social Media, that their objective is to reach gamers and promote their brand to their demographic. Yes it's fun when they tweet MOASS and Chickie Tendies, but let's not flood them with comments about Ken, Naked Short Selling, and Mayonnaise. Let's show them support by joining, contributing to, and expanding their robust community of gamers!
|
||||
|
||||
______________________________________________________________________________
|
||||
|
||||
🚨 Reddit down 🚨
|
||||
|
||||
With Reddit having issues during high traffic, exciting moments in this saga, we have discussed what to do if Reddit has an outage.
|
||||
|
||||
IF REDDIT GOES DOWN AT A PIVOTAL MOMENT A LARGE PORTION OF THE MOD TEAM IS ON TWITTER.
|
||||
|
||||
<https://twitter.com/ByeTriangle>
|
||||
|
||||
<https://twitter.com/PinkCatsOnAcid>
|
||||
|
||||
<https://twitter.com/RedChessQueen99>
|
||||
|
||||
<https://twitter.com/rensole>
|
||||
|
||||
<https://twitter.com/u_sharkbaitlol>
|
||||
|
||||
<https://twitter.com/BradduckF>
|
||||
|
||||
IF THERE IS SOMETHING BIG GOING ON WHILE THE OUTAGE IS HAPPENING WE MAY ALSO UTILIZE THE "EMERGENCY BROADCAST SYSTEM" TO RELAY INFO:
|
||||
|
||||
[SuperstonkLive YouTube - Emergency Broadcast System](https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCI4EET9NJPWxUuXGlG6fxPA)
|
||||
|
||||
___________________________________________________________________________________
|
||||
|
||||
*OOK OOK*
|
||||
|
||||
*"I may have been early, but I am not wrong"*
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/hr68oim9su571.png?width=1600&format=png&auto=webp&s=19627d55c597ba245ee071cfecd3da2fb3a92195)
|
||||
|
||||
🦍🦍🦍🦍🦍🦍🦍🦍🦍🦍🦍🦍🦍🦍🦍🦍🦍🦍🦍🦍🦍🦍🦍🦍🦍🦍🦍🦍🦍
|
252
Jungle-Beat-Archives/2021-06-18-Jungle-Beat.md
Normal file
252
Jungle-Beat-Archives/2021-06-18-Jungle-Beat.md
Normal file
@ -0,0 +1,252 @@
|
||||
The Jungle Beat- Friday 06-18-2021 FLAIR FRIDAY 🦍🌴🥁🔥🚀🚀
|
||||
============================================================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/pinkcatsonacid](https://www.reddit.com/user/pinkcatsonacid/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/o2zae3/the_jungle_beat_friday_06182021_flair_friday/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
[Daily News 🦍💎🙌🚀](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22Daily%20News%20%F0%9F%A6%8D%F0%9F%92%8E%F0%9F%99%8C%F0%9F%9A%80%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/qloptvd5t2671.png?width=1426&format=png&auto=webp&s=454fe0f79999069749c516ed8717e94e1866642e)
|
||||
|
||||
__________________________________________________________________
|
||||
|
||||
🎤🎸🥁 🦍Welcome to the Jungle🦍🥁🎸🎤
|
||||
|
||||
__________________________________________________________________
|
||||
|
||||
Today's Recap 📈
|
||||
|
||||
$GME Closing Price: $213.82
|
||||
|
||||
Open Price: $220.18
|
||||
|
||||
Daily High: $223.49
|
||||
|
||||
Daily Low: $213.00
|
||||
|
||||
Volume: 4.28 MM
|
||||
|
||||
_____________________________________________________________________
|
||||
|
||||
🖍🍎🚌GME 101🚌🍎🖍
|
||||
|
||||
*If you're new to Superstonk, start here!*
|
||||
|
||||
[Superstonk FAQ](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/wiki/index/faq#wiki_how_do_i.2C_as_a_retail_investor.2C_stand_a_chance_against_the_hedge_funds.3F) (Updates coming soon)
|
||||
|
||||
[Superstonk Wiki](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/wiki/index)
|
||||
|
||||
NEW!! We will be having a "Smooth Brain Sunday Megathread" every Sunday as a place to ask all the questions you've been wanting to get answered! Please be advised that all answers provided are from individual users and, as always, any information you receive requires doing your own due diligence!!
|
||||
|
||||
The apes of [r/Superstonk](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/) sincerely appreciate the time and effort put into getting this information out there. 🦍🤝💪
|
||||
|
||||
_______________________________________________________________________________
|
||||
|
||||
Superstonk Community Award Contest!- Deadline Sunday!
|
||||
|
||||
text and awesome artwork by [u/redchessqueen99](https://www.reddit.com/u/redchessqueen99/)
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/n0hga459t2671.png?width=1000&format=png&auto=webp&s=9b7e95759f9e931cb541e65e84aefe9426a10811)
|
||||
|
||||
What are Community Awards?
|
||||
|
||||
Regular "awards" are purchased with Coins, a mechanism of Reddit that ultimately requires real money to purchase packs of coins that can then be spent on awards for posts and comments. [r/Superstonk](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/) does not receive any money when they are purchased, but it does receive Coins when users gift Community Awards.
|
||||
|
||||
> Community Awards are unique to each community, and members can give them to each other. Moderators can design and name the Awards however they want.A portion of Coins from Community Award purchases will be deposited to the community's Coin balance. Moderators can use Coins from that balance to reward members with Mod Awards. The Coin balance is shown only to moderators in the community's sidebar.
|
||||
|
||||
Moderators do NOT have access to the [r/Superstonk](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/) coin bank other than to give Community Awards on this sub to quality posts and comments. Moderators do NOT receive any coins personally, and only certain mods with permissions can access the coin bank for this purpose.
|
||||
|
||||
Community Award: Any user can gift this award for an amount of Coins (min. 500) to a post or comment. Each of these awards will also gift Coins to [r/Superstonk](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/) itself, allowing mods to give mod-exclusive awards. For example, a 500 Coin Community Award also gives the subreddit 100 Coins.
|
||||
|
||||
Mod-Exclusive Community Award: These awards are purchased using the Coins available only to mods from the [r/Superstonk](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/) Coin bank, and give a certain amount of Reddit Premium to the recipient. For example, a 1800 Coin Mod-Exclusive Community Award will grant one month of Reddit Premium.
|
||||
|
||||
*Reddit Premium gives 700 monthly coins, access to Premium Awards, and more. Learn about it here:* [*https://www.reddit.com/premium*](https://www.reddit.com/premium)
|
||||
|
||||
Currently, we have two Community Awards: the Superstonk Award (500 Coins, giftable by members), and the Not-A-Cat Golden Bananya Award (1800 Coins, giftable by mods only).
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/qu1bovcbt2671.png?width=1000&format=png&auto=webp&s=90e30b0607a2d5dc049ec2783446ef5ca5f92743)
|
||||
|
||||
Ape Not Fight Ape, unless for top prize!
|
||||
|
||||
Award Contest
|
||||
|
||||
We ask you, [r/Superstonk](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/) members and lurkers, to use your best design skills to create award icons that we can then place into the Community Awards. You will need to think of a great name, too, but note we must keep it (mostly) family friendly. We are limiting to one design/name per submission, so make it good!
|
||||
|
||||
The top eight designs will be made into the following awards:
|
||||
|
||||
- 5th-8th: Community Award (cost: 500 Coins, 100 to [r/Superstonk](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/))
|
||||
|
||||
- 4th: Community Award (cost: 1000 Coins, 200 to [r/Superstonk](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/))
|
||||
|
||||
- 3rd: Community Award (cost: 2000 Coins, 400 to [r/Superstonk](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/))
|
||||
|
||||
- 2nd: Mod-Exclusive Award for 1-month Premium (mod cost: 1800 Coins)
|
||||
|
||||
- 1st: Mod-Exclusive Award for 3-month Premium (mod cost: 5400 Coins)
|
||||
|
||||
Additionally, 1st and 2nd place will receive FOUR of the new 3-month Premium mod-exclusive awards on their top posts and/or comments, 3rd and 4th place will receive ONE of the new 3-month Premium mod-exclusive award, and 5th, 6th, 7th, and 8th place will each receive ONE of the new 1-month Premium mod-exclusive award. This will effectively win you Coins and Premium membership, as well as serious clout from designing an official sub award.
|
||||
|
||||
To submit, please follow the guidelines below.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/cuqvmaset2671.png?width=1000&format=png&auto=webp&s=9bd18819a16ccebcd1e0b23d3e98bf60a96bf8f9)
|
||||
|
||||
Welcome to the Jungle
|
||||
|
||||
Submissions must adhere to the following:
|
||||
|
||||
- Image file attached to email with these attributes:
|
||||
|
||||
- Design Image: PNG with alpha layer (or) animated GIF with alpha layer
|
||||
|
||||
- If a gif, we cannot guarantee it will work in our bracket system (will try)
|
||||
|
||||
- Must be square crop (1:1 ratio)
|
||||
|
||||
- Width and height should be equal, and at least 512px
|
||||
|
||||
- File size limited to 2MB
|
||||
|
||||
- Name of Award (Appropriate Titles Only; otherwise we will change it)
|
||||
|
||||
- Username of Artist (must have history on [r/Superstonk](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/) without Ban)
|
||||
|
||||
- One submission per user
|
||||
|
||||
- Rules must be followed; NSFW or improper designs/titles will be disqualified
|
||||
|
||||
- Designs must be original content, or created by submitter; no copying from Google Images or stealing others' work
|
||||
|
||||
- (optional) Include a hyperlink to the image as backup (i.e. Imgur)
|
||||
|
||||
PLEASE FOLLOW THESE 👆 REQUIREMENTS OR YOUR SUBMISSION WILL BE REJECTED.💎 Send submissions to <superstonk_mods@protonmail.com>
|
||||
|
||||
*We will not accept awards tagged in posts, sent by Message or Chat, or over Discord. We encourage you to* *create a separate email* *if you want to remain anonymous, but we will not release any details regarding the submissions process, other than the username provided during submission.*
|
||||
|
||||
💎 DEADLINE - Sunday, June 20 @ 4:00 p.m. EST or 120 total submissions received
|
||||
|
||||
Timezone Deadlines: 1:00 p.m. PST / 2:00 p.m. CST / 4:00 p.m. EST / 10:00 p.m. UTC / 6:00 a.m. AEST
|
||||
|
||||
We reserve the right to deny any images that do not meet these requirements. The contest will remain open until we receive 120 entries or until the deadline; whichever comes first. If you are late with submission, or if the contest closes due to the limit, you will sadly not be included. The early ape gets the banana!
|
||||
|
||||
*By submitting your design to this contest, you are agreed to allow the subreddit* [r/Superstonk](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/) *to use it for a Community Award image, without end date, and the design will remain a part of* [r/Superstonk](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/) *in this context indefinitely. The subreddit will not claim any copyright over the designs submitted, or use them for any other purpose.*
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/r2f6tiuit2671.png?width=1000&format=png&auto=webp&s=a28682a618bff44ab6e01914ec3e291b4cda5459)
|
||||
|
||||
TLDR: Make some awesome designs and send them in. The first 120 submissions will be included in the contest, if submitted by the deadline, and the top eight will win mod-exclusive awards (Reddit Premium) and have their designs featured as official [r/Superstonk](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/) awards.Thank you again for participating in the contest and good luck, apes!
|
||||
|
||||
back to [u/pinkcatsonacid](https://www.reddit.com/u/pinkcatsonacid/) 🐈🦄
|
||||
|
||||
_______________________________________________________________________________
|
||||
|
||||
Community Spotlight- DD Reads for the Weekend
|
||||
|
||||
- [The naked shorting scam in numbers part deux: Up to date FTD, ETF, SI, Options & Dark Pool Data. GME is the shorted to shit unicorn that can never happen again.](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/o14ccz/the_naked_shorting_scam_in_numbers_part_deux_up/) By [u/Broccaaa](https://www.reddit.com/u/Broccaaa/)
|
||||
|
||||
- [The Bigger Short. How 2008 is repeating, at a much greater magnitude, and COVID ignited the fuse. GME is not the reason for the market crash. GME was the fatal flaw of Wall Street in their infinite money cheat that they did not expect.](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/o0scoy/the_bigger_short_how_2008_is_repeating_at_a_much/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3) By [u/Criand](https://www.reddit.com/u/Criand/)
|
||||
|
||||
- [Clarification of when GameStop will issue a press release stating the ATM Offering is complete, sale price max, maximum offering, update on outstanding shares, the reason why MarketWatch and Ortex differ, and other Form 424B5 goodies with highlighted pictures!](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nxkuvw/clarification_of_when_gamestop_will_issue_a_press/) By [u/Squashua1982](https://www.reddit.com/user/Squashua1982/)
|
||||
|
||||
- [What's the Deal with Reverse Repos anyway? DD Part 1.2 Post Fed Meeting Update](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/o28xhx/whats_the_deal_with_reverse_repos_anyway_dd_part/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf) By [u/memebetch6969](https://www.reddit.com/user/memebetch6969/)
|
||||
|
||||
- [Watch the Documentary Inside Job](https://youtu.be/XBZfsb7OO_k) (link is to trailer.. I don't want to spam any pirate links. Apes will find a way!)
|
||||
|
||||
_______________________________________________________________________________
|
||||
|
||||
RRPs Breaking Records, Banks Going Long on $ROPE, the Feds Printing Money and Kicking Cans... Quad Witching Day (triggered)
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/r54sb1mkv2671.jpg?width=770&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=c4fe9adf8f8e30afed6e6663cd4133a0e14cd870)
|
||||
|
||||
_______________________________________________________________________________
|
||||
|
||||
It's Flair Friday, but Everyday is Kinda Flair Friday...
|
||||
|
||||
I started doing the Flair Friday thing with the daily posts back when I was filling in for the morning update and it was a fun way to connect with you guys since I don't get to hang out in the comments of my memes with you any more. It has grown to now becoming one of the most popular aspects of the Jungle Beat posts, which I love! I really enjoy coming up with mayonnaise-laden puns and emoji scrambles for each one of you, though I don't think I've ever gotten to the end of the comments list, even when I lock them. I do try to work on them in spare time but what is spare time anymore....
|
||||
|
||||
Please don't be discouraged or think I'm ignoring you if you have repeatedly asked and yet to receive your flair! I have been getting flair comments every day this week which I don't mind, as long as you all understand that I will get to as many as I can!! I love you all and don't want anyone to feel left out or overlooked! I WILL GET TO YOU I PROMISE, EACH ONE OF YOU IS AWESOME AND DESERVES A CUSTOM FLAIR!! 💖💖💖
|
||||
|
||||
Drop a comment with your desired flair!
|
||||
|
||||
_______________________________________________________________________________
|
||||
|
||||
A note from your friendly local Pink Cat ✌💖🐈
|
||||
|
||||
It's been a wild few weeks.. or, months.. (years? What decade is it?) This has been a crazy journey and I want to take a minute to check in with the group. Everybody has been go-go-going.
|
||||
|
||||
The media is everywhere (MSM for those wondering wtf that acronym means- Main Stream Media) and it seems that they are trying to paint a picture of collusion on the $GME stock and others (which they deem "meme" stocks which at this point is borderline weaponized against us but I digress) and I know there is a general air of concern around the entire community. I'm just reassuring you guys. This gal right here and the whole mod team, are making sure to keep the sub a very tightly run ship. No fuck-ups allowed. The hedgies and their bought MSM platforms are trying, desperately, to gain access to the fortress of our City of Athens, and the walls remain steadfast. This will not change for the foreseeable future.
|
||||
|
||||
I want everyone to seriously take a mental health break from all this whenever you can.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/556n4iyf23671.jpg?width=250&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=dae16d0caf1068f5f8447c1c2b35e4d0cc37b196)
|
||||
|
||||
me @ me rn
|
||||
|
||||
Drink plenty of water. Go for a walk. Go call an old friend, or your mom. Kiss your kids forehead and read them a book. Cook dinner with your spouse, meet up with online friends for a game, go for a drive.... just get your headspace out of Superstonk every once in a while and remember to take care of yourself physically and mentally. They don't call it a Long position for nothing ;)
|
||||
|
||||
I want to thank all of you apes for continuing to be awesome and excellent to each other and growing this community into the beautiful space it is today. You all deserve this seat here. I'm honored to be on this rocket ship with you all. 💖
|
||||
|
||||
_______________________________________________________________________________
|
||||
|
||||
We Like the Company! We Support the Company!
|
||||
|
||||
Obviously you're a shareholder because you love Gamestop and have high hopes for its future. Supporting the company you love on the retail front is a great way for a shareholder to ensure a business' success! Here are several ways you can show your public support for Gamestop;
|
||||
|
||||
- [Shop at Gamestop.com](https://www.gamestop.com/) 🛒
|
||||
|
||||
- [Become a PowerUp Rewards Member](https://www.gamestop.com/poweruprewards/) ✊
|
||||
|
||||
- [... Which gets you a subscription to Game Informer Magazine](https://www.gameinformer.com/) 🚀
|
||||
|
||||
- [Follow Gamestop on Twitter](https://twitter.com/GameStop) 🦍
|
||||
|
||||
- [Subscribe to Gamestop's YouTube Channel](https://www.youtube.com/user/gamestopvideo) 🖍
|
||||
|
||||
- [Follow Gamestop on Twitch](https://www.twitch.tv/gamestop) 🎮
|
||||
|
||||
- [Follow Gamestop on Instagram](https://www.instagram.com/gamestop/?hl=en) 🌙
|
||||
|
||||
- [Follow Gamestop on LinkedIn](https://www.linkedin.com/company/gamestop) 💼
|
||||
|
||||
- [Follow Gamestop on Facebook](https://www.facebook.com/GameStop) 🦧
|
||||
|
||||
- [Apple Devices- Download the Gamestop App](https://apps.apple.com/us/app/gamestop/id406033647) (Link to App Store) 🍌
|
||||
|
||||
- [Android Devices- Download the Gamestop App](https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=com.gamestop.powerup) (Link to Play Shop) 📈
|
||||
|
||||
- Brands owned by Gamestop; ThinkGeek, GameInformer, [MicroMania](https://www.micromania.fr/), and [EB Games](https://www.ebgames.ca/) 💎
|
||||
|
||||
Please remember apes, as you are interacting with Gamestop Social Media, that their objective is to reach gamers and promote their brand to their demographic. Yes it's fun when they tweet MOASS and Chickie Tendies, but let's not flood them with comments about Ken, Naked Short Selling, and Mayonnaise. Let's show them support by joining, contributing to, and expanding their robust community of gamers!
|
||||
|
||||
______________________________________________________________________________
|
||||
|
||||
🚨 Reddit down 🚨
|
||||
|
||||
With Reddit having issues during high traffic, exciting moments in this saga, we have discussed what to do if Reddit has an outage.
|
||||
|
||||
IF REDDIT GOES DOWN AT A PIVOTAL MOMENT A LARGE PORTION OF THE MOD TEAM IS ON TWITTER.
|
||||
|
||||
<https://twitter.com/ByeTriangle>
|
||||
|
||||
<https://twitter.com/PinkCatsOnAcid>
|
||||
|
||||
<https://twitter.com/RedChessQueen99>
|
||||
|
||||
<https://twitter.com/rensole>
|
||||
|
||||
<https://twitter.com/u_sharkbaitlol>
|
||||
|
||||
<https://twitter.com/BradduckF>
|
||||
|
||||
IF THERE IS SOMETHING BIG GOING ON WHILE THE OUTAGE IS HAPPENING WE MAY ALSO UTILIZE THE "EMERGENCY BROADCAST SYSTEM" TO RELAY INFO:
|
||||
|
||||
[SuperstonkLive YouTube - Emergency Broadcast System](https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCI4EET9NJPWxUuXGlG6fxPA)
|
||||
|
||||
___________________________________________________________________________________
|
||||
|
||||
*OOK OOK*
|
||||
|
||||
*"I may have been early, but I am not wrong"*
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/o965ziqj13671.png?width=1600&format=png&auto=webp&s=e02d29f133802a4f7d15a814b2e8f400ddafee19)
|
84
Live-Charting-Archives/2021-06-14-Live-Charting.md
Normal file
84
Live-Charting-Archives/2021-06-14-Live-Charting.md
Normal file
@ -0,0 +1,84 @@
|
||||
Jerkin' it with Gherkinit S3 E1 MOAP and Daily Live Charting for 6/14/21
|
||||
========================================================================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/gherkinit](https://www.reddit.com/user/gherkinit/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nzlma1/jerkin_it_with_gherkinit_s3_e1_moap_and_daily/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
[Discussion 🦍](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22Discussion%20%F0%9F%A6%8D%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||
Good Morning Superstonk!
|
||||
|
||||
A lot of stuff went down last week a possible* ATM offering of 5M shares, new chairman and CEO/CFO announcements, and [I lost a bet](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zV_Mf7SbA34&t=1s).
|
||||
|
||||
I'm looking to see if we move up into that previous exponential growth channel or we form a new one today. I will also be paying pretty close attention to the bond market and SPY this week as those are looking pretty unstable.
|
||||
|
||||
If you guys haven't had a chance to [Check out this weeks forward looking TA](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nz1x01/jerkin_it_with_gherkinit_forward_looking_ta_for/)
|
||||
|
||||
Check out the daily livestream @ <https://www.youtube.com/c/PickleFinancial>
|
||||
|
||||
Or listen along with our live audio feed on [Discord](https://discord.gg/HbqnUVsSrH)
|
||||
|
||||
(save these links in case reddit goes down)
|
||||
|
||||
Historical Resistance/Support:
|
||||
|
||||
116.5, 125.5, 132.5, 141, 145, 147.5, 150, 152.5, 157, 158.5, 162.5, 163, 165.5, 172, 174, 176.5, 179, 180.5, 182, 183.5, 184.5, 186, 187.5, 190.5, 192, 195, 196.5, 197.5, 200, 209, 211.5, 214.5, 218, 226, 232.5, 235, 242.5, 250, 255, 262.5, 275, 285, 300, 302.50, 310, 317.50, 325, 332.5, 345, 350, moon base...
|
||||
|
||||
After Market
|
||||
|
||||
Well that was a weird day decent volume traded but basically no indication that they were still in the process of selling shares at least on the indicators possible that larger investors are waiting to make a move after the ATM announcement. I guess we'll see what happens tomorrow maybe more sideways.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/i3kwb5wdfa571.png?width=667&format=png&auto=webp&s=8dca9f7e933a5fe5f127a909bd6341c352df5c3a)
|
||||
|
||||
Also did the SPY just do a short squeeze? I didn't see this on this weekends list of WSBs pump and dumps...
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/73w2hz9kfa571.png?width=1593&format=png&auto=webp&s=6662aba366a3def3f41c2d9b6efc8a1b3a7b5080)
|
||||
|
||||
- Gherkinit
|
||||
|
||||
Edit 5 3:04
|
||||
|
||||
Flat still
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/44x5qqno4a571.png?width=1618&format=png&auto=webp&s=3722234df3a35e2bb08a49acf085121c6acaa741)
|
||||
|
||||
Edit 4 1:10
|
||||
|
||||
Still chopping on VWAP I wish I had more to say about this but the volume seems tied up elsewhere today
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/k9sno35gk9571.png?width=1603&format=png&auto=webp&s=6efa1dcb42cf8e14b290ed4800787dd1ccb24796)
|
||||
|
||||
Edit 3 11:19
|
||||
|
||||
Small breakout testing VWAP volume is still crap but maybe it will pick up later today. Bigger buyers will most likely wait for the ATM announcement before making any moves.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/d93d3m1o09571.png?width=1615&format=png&auto=webp&s=f5b4fe248753a6af7a04b1f53199da559949934f)
|
||||
|
||||
Edit 2 10:26
|
||||
|
||||
Volume very low, we had a breakout from that wedge after the dip but it looks like that triangle from Friday is gonna fail
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/3cj6vry2r8571.png?width=2049&format=png&auto=webp&s=52db7b6b63f7cff6e533aadd3ab75cce55c44023)
|
||||
|
||||
Edit 1 9:38
|
||||
|
||||
Classic GME short-breakout
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/uklzgr3mi8571.png?width=1568&format=png&auto=webp&s=cb6474f2ad5cc588df8d61a387d07542e207deac)
|
||||
|
||||
Pre-Market Analysis
|
||||
|
||||
We might be opening the day on a breakout of this ascending triangle which could be a nice start to my expected climb for today. Pre-market volume still low at 83k while I write this. 1.2M shares available to borrow between Fidelity and Iborrow. No notable arbitrage.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/qi8gez1i58571.png?width=1426&format=png&auto=webp&s=8b658256daa610ba4282b262355663d0bc3be348)
|
||||
|
||||
** Although my profession is day trading, I in no way endorse day-trading of GME not only does it present significant risk, it can delay the squeeze.*
|
||||
|
||||
**My YouTube channel is "monetized" if that is something you are uncomfortable with, I understand, while I wouldn't say I profit greatly from the views, I do suggest you use ad-block when viewing it if you feel so compelled.* *My intention is simply benefit this community. For those that find value in and feel compelled to reward my work, I thank you. For those that do not I encourage you to enjoy the content. As always this information is intended to be free to everyone.*
|
||||
|
||||
**This is not Financial advice. The ideas and opinions expressed here are for educational and entertainment purposes only.*
|
||||
|
||||
* *No position is worth your life and debt can always be repaid. Please if you need help reach out this community is here for you. Also the NSPL Phone: 800-273-8255 Hours: Available 24 hours. Languages: English, Spanish.* [*Learn more*](https://suicidepreventionlifeline.org/)
|
82
Live-Charting-Archives/2021-06-15-Live-Charting.md
Normal file
82
Live-Charting-Archives/2021-06-15-Live-Charting.md
Normal file
@ -0,0 +1,82 @@
|
||||
Jerkin' it with Gherkinit S3 E2 Live Charting for 6/15/21
|
||||
=========================================================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/gherkinit](https://www.reddit.com/user/gherkinit/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/o0d8xf/jerkin_it_with_gherkinit_s3_e2_live_charting_for/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
[Discussion 🦍](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22Discussion%20%F0%9F%A6%8D%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||
Good Morning Superstonk!
|
||||
|
||||
Yesterday was a strange day to say the least, GME had decent volume but almost no price action as we dipped traded sideways and then came up a bit before close. The SPY did one of the hardest rips before close I've seen, the bond markets slipped, and corporate junk bonds are having pretty erratic movement as well. Michael Burry pops up and drops and FBI surveillance van on his twitter... It's definitely gonna be a weird week. Oh, and quadruple witching on Friday. Remember as we go into today hodl tight, cause this is a bumpy ride.
|
||||
|
||||
If you guys haven't had a chance to [Check out this weeks forward looking TA](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nz1x01/jerkin_it_with_gherkinit_forward_looking_ta_for/)
|
||||
|
||||
Join us in the Daily Livestream <https://www.youtube.com/c/PickleFinancial>
|
||||
|
||||
Or listen along with our live audio feed on [Discord](https://discord.gg/HbqnUVsSrH)
|
||||
|
||||
(save these links in case reddit goes down)
|
||||
|
||||
Historical Resistance/Support:
|
||||
|
||||
116.5, 125.5, 132.5, 141, 145, 147.5, 150, 152.5, 157, 158.5, 162.5, 163, 165.5, 172, 174, 176.5, 179, 180.5, 182, 183.5, 184.5, 186, 187.5, 190.5, 192, 195, 196.5, 197.5, 200, 209, 211.5, 214.5, 218, 226, 232.5, 235, 242.5, 250, 255, 262.5, 275, 285, 300, 302.50, 310, 317.50, 325, 332.5, 345, 350, moon base...
|
||||
|
||||
After Market Wrap
|
||||
|
||||
So that was an interesting day closing down 3.22% from yesterday. Hopefully we see some price action tomorrow and now more of this down all day up before close nonsense as apparently DTCC-005 is now filed we could have an interesting Wednesday. Thank you all for tuning in and for all the support. See you tomorrow morning at 9am.
|
||||
|
||||
- Gherkinit
|
||||
|
||||
Edit 6 2:59
|
||||
|
||||
Little resistance at 223.93
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/2l7sxvkj8h571.png?width=1628&format=png&auto=webp&s=f5f9c011f089a80a1bbb3ec545dab0d611491424)
|
||||
|
||||
Edit 5 2:48
|
||||
|
||||
Praise be to VWAP at this our moment of ascension
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/jv7jrc4u6h571.png?width=1649&format=png&auto=webp&s=738f432eee6e6366e387f81c3d72e62f2fa95bff)
|
||||
|
||||
Edit 4 1:23
|
||||
|
||||
Small bounce on 210 no follow-up volume
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/q7ed0y0mrg571.png?width=1633&format=png&auto=webp&s=faac91b477f2925cd79e8446459261d9d789c070)
|
||||
|
||||
Edit 3 12:50
|
||||
|
||||
sideways chop fell of dipping to 210
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/dhe1yp6plg571.png?width=1620&format=png&auto=webp&s=632c70f97219d2ee80a4dc05ba98803557af3a18)
|
||||
|
||||
Edit 2 10:20
|
||||
|
||||
5 failed tests of VWAP if this breaks below 220 we could see a decent intraday dip
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/3vnretiruf571.png?width=1177&format=png&auto=webp&s=719cdc675e63d265a3b3e413b0e7e3afd9f98eb6)
|
||||
|
||||
Edit 1 9:47
|
||||
|
||||
Failed test of VWAP GME came down with the market at open, negative beta doesn't mean inverse to the market, failed test of VWAP maybe looking at some lower volume chop now
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/ifsgbps7pf571.png?width=1646&format=png&auto=webp&s=79b21200e202c6ef6832cb0872b09c46376c447d)
|
||||
|
||||
Pre-Market Analysis
|
||||
|
||||
Volume this morning is about half of what it was yesterday at 43k. It's very possible with all the things happening in the rest of the market we may have a pretty low day for GME. Looks like we have a fill up to 230 possibly before open 1.1M Shares available to borrow.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/7pe6xf2vaf571.png?width=1372&format=png&auto=webp&s=97ceb815f1fe52e7f099cd06fdd2e4aff0a0306e)
|
||||
|
||||
** Although my profession is day trading, I in no way endorse day-trading of GME not only does it present significant risk, it can delay the squeeze.*
|
||||
|
||||
**My YouTube channel is "monetized" if that is something you are uncomfortable with, I understand, while I wouldn't say I profit greatly from the views, I do suggest you use ad-block when viewing it if you feel so compelled.* *My intention is simply benefit this community. For those that find value in and feel compelled to reward my work, I thank you. For those that do not I encourage you to enjoy the content. As always this information is intended to be free to everyone.*
|
||||
|
||||
**This is not Financial advice. The ideas and opinions expressed here are for educational and entertainment purposes only.*
|
||||
|
||||
* *No position is worth your life and debt can always be repaid. Please if you need help reach out this community is here for you. Also the NSPL Phone: 800-273-8255 Hours: Available 24 hours. Languages: English, Spanish.* [*Learn more*](https://suicidepreventionlifeline.org/)
|
108
Live-Charting-Archives/2021-06-16-Live-Charting.md
Normal file
108
Live-Charting-Archives/2021-06-16-Live-Charting.md
Normal file
@ -0,0 +1,108 @@
|
||||
Jerkin it with Gherkinit S3 E3 Live Charting for 6/16/2021
|
||||
==========================================================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/gherkinit](https://www.reddit.com/user/gherkinit/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/o13od2/jerkin_it_with_gherkinit_s3_e3_live_charting_for/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
[Discussion 🦍](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22Discussion%20%F0%9F%A6%8D%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||
Good Morning Superstonk!
|
||||
|
||||
It's me "pickle guy" here to bring you another day of drawing pickles and triangles on the charts while watching GME trade sideways.
|
||||
|
||||
Well maybe not, according to a lot of very lightly researched information we get to find out who the DTCC cares more about today themselves or the markets they are supposed to "self-regulate". I'm gonna go out on a limb here and guess themselves.
|
||||
|
||||
Possibly however we could see some smaller GME short positions move on the regulations as they are less well connected and more likely to get steamrolled by incoming regulations. Usually when these types of regulation go into effect they are enforced at a lower level so as to give the appearance of doing their job without actually targeting any of the big boys like Citadel. Low-hanging fruit if you will. Absolute speculation, just an interesting thought.
|
||||
|
||||
If you guys haven't had a chance to [Check out this weeks forward looking TA](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nz1x01/jerkin_it_with_gherkinit_forward_looking_ta_for/)
|
||||
|
||||
Join us in the Daily Livestream <https://www.youtube.com/c/PickleFinancial>
|
||||
|
||||
Or listen along with our live audio feed on [Discord](https://discord.gg/HbqnUVsSrH)
|
||||
|
||||
(save these links in case reddit goes down)
|
||||
|
||||
Historical Resistance/Support:
|
||||
|
||||
116.5, 125.5, 132.5, 141, 145, 147.5, 150, 152.5, 157, 158.5, 162.5, 163, 165.5, 172, 174, 176.5, 179, 180.5, 182, 183.5, 184.5, 186, 187.5, 190.5, 192, 195, 196.5, 197.5, 200, 209, 211.5, 214.5, 218, 226, 232.5, 235, 242.5, 250, 255, 262.5, 275, 285, 300, 302.50, 310, 317.50, 325, 332.5, 345, 350, moon base...
|
||||
|
||||
After Market
|
||||
|
||||
Well eight hours for .34 was definitely worth every second let see how this fares in after hours tonight and I will see all of you bright and early tomorrow. Have a good night guys.
|
||||
|
||||
- Gherkinit
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/e8109ogtoo571.png?width=672&format=png&auto=webp&s=5e920f155b3a72d9fcbe74844cfc74022ea5ea62)
|
||||
|
||||
Edit 7 3:45
|
||||
|
||||
JPOW said liftoff at least 12x, GME positive now on the daily
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/coda2093mo571.png?width=1645&format=png&auto=webp&s=d8660de29c80c8c6e6ca951b4ab3ffd96811a759)
|
||||
|
||||
Edit 6 1:12
|
||||
|
||||
Triple bottom bounce into a test of VWAP
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/20zotlylun571.png?width=1646&format=png&auto=webp&s=420e803b844a4d1c39faf10539ff577f4c7d3ea0)
|
||||
|
||||
Edit 5 12:37
|
||||
|
||||
Looks like we might be going back down to 210-212. Volume dried up another sideways day unless JPOW crashes the market
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/nun9mbrcon571.png?width=1643&format=png&auto=webp&s=80a50f0957faa854a2ee1736844e7e41352e8d30)
|
||||
|
||||
Edit 4 11:21
|
||||
|
||||
1.1 million shares back on iborrow borrow fee dropped to 0.7% this could be long funds putting up shares from the ATM offering that they just purchased. I do believe that the current rebate rate is .98% however so it looks like GME is now +0.2% positive to short borrow...Fell below VWAP more chop if we slip the support expect a dip
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/lxxfyfr8bn571.png?width=1650&format=png&auto=webp&s=a679318bf37b8d6030ec3c30934fcb177f03158f)
|
||||
|
||||
Edit 3 10:30
|
||||
|
||||
Testing 220 and SHFCJ indicator confirmed. Guys we know how the mayo is made!!??!!
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/i1iglqrt1n571.png?width=1643&format=png&auto=webp&s=d12148c2b351e18d5cd9af0e9ca66990fcab9496)
|
||||
|
||||
Edit 2 10:15
|
||||
|
||||
Nice double bottom bounce looks like most of the shares borrowed are eaten up already based on volume ratio. If that was all their ammo this was a pretty pathetic short attack.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/dq44s4jkym571.png?width=1642&format=png&auto=webp&s=08bd06770b02617dc23239e2156545fecbf86025)
|
||||
|
||||
Edit 1 9:46
|
||||
|
||||
500k volume so far. Didn't hold VWAP so we may see a bit of a dip but surprisingly stable given the number of shares borrowed
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/evww2hgvtm571.png?width=1640&format=png&auto=webp&s=df90416ae81e6d7bd51c11b14e89b97ce75483c8)
|
||||
|
||||
Pre-Market Analysis
|
||||
|
||||
Pre-Edit 4 9:21
|
||||
|
||||
Now the shares on iborrow are gone down to 10,000 available. So a total of 1.19M borrowed.
|
||||
|
||||
Pre-Edit 3 9:08
|
||||
|
||||
700k borrowed Iborrow now at 500k available.
|
||||
|
||||
Pre-Edit 2 9:00
|
||||
|
||||
Still looks like those shares were borrowed strap in it could get ugly
|
||||
|
||||
Pre-Edit 1
|
||||
|
||||
We could definitely have another nothing morning our volume is low sitting at 32k. It appears that the 1.2 million shares have disappeared from Iborrow, I'll update more on this before market open. Fidelity is showing 1M shares available but also flagged as "hard to borrow". If they have been borrowed we could see some crazy opening price action so be prepared. Pretty flat pre-market so far. I will drop another update around 9-9:15 after I get some more information on share availability.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/zkembtd49m571.png?width=1639&format=png&auto=webp&s=459111756fb9e3fde0549bfd60355604aef82d2a)
|
||||
|
||||
** Although my profession is day trading, I in no way endorse day-trading of GME not only does it present significant risk, it can delay the squeeze.*
|
||||
|
||||
**My YouTube channel is "monetized" if that is something you are uncomfortable with, I understand, while I wouldn't say I profit greatly from the views, I do suggest you use ad-block when viewing it if you feel so compelled.* *My intention is simply benefit this community. For those that find value in and feel compelled to reward my work, I thank you. For those that do not I encourage you to enjoy the content. As always this information is intended to be free to everyone.*
|
||||
|
||||
**This is not Financial advice. The ideas and opinions expressed here are for educational and entertainment purposes only.*
|
||||
|
||||
* *No position is worth your life and debt can always be repaid. Please if you need help reach out this community is here for you. Also the NSPL Phone: 800-273-8255 Hours: Available 24 hours. Languages: English, Spanish.* [*Learn more*](https://suicidepreventionlifeline.org/)
|
110
Live-Charting-Archives/2021-06-17-Live-Charting.md
Normal file
110
Live-Charting-Archives/2021-06-17-Live-Charting.md
Normal file
@ -0,0 +1,110 @@
|
||||
Jerkin' it with Gherkinit S3 E4 Live Charting for 6/17/2021
|
||||
===========================================================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/gherkinit](https://www.reddit.com/user/gherkinit/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/o1x1ic/jerkin_it_with_gherkinit_s3_e4_live_charting_for/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
[Discussion 🦍](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22Discussion%20%F0%9F%A6%8D%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||
Good Morning guys!
|
||||
|
||||
I overslept a bunch no dilly dallying.
|
||||
|
||||
stream delayed to 9:30
|
||||
|
||||
If you guys haven't had a chance to [Check out this weeks forward looking TA](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nz1x01/jerkin_it_with_gherkinit_forward_looking_ta_for/)
|
||||
|
||||
Join us in the Daily Livestream <https://www.youtube.com/c/PickleFinancial>
|
||||
|
||||
Or listen along with our live audio feed on [Discord](https://discord.gg/HbqnUVsSrH)
|
||||
|
||||
(save these links in case reddit goes down)
|
||||
|
||||
Historical Resistance/Support:
|
||||
|
||||
116.5, 125.5, 132.5, 141, 145, 147.5, 150, 152.5, 157, 158.5, 162.5, 163, 165.5, 172, 174, 176.5, 179, 180.5, 182, 183.5, 184.5, 186, 187.5, 190.5, 192, 195, 196.5, 197.5, 200, 209, 211.5, 214.5, 218, 226, 232.5, 235, 242.5, 250, 255, 262.5, 275, 285, 300, 302.50, 310, 317.50, 325, 332.5, 345, 350, moon base...
|
||||
|
||||
After Market
|
||||
|
||||
Closed slightly up again today low volume consolidation with a slight push from the shorts before close. Thank you all once again for tuning in and all the support.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/64jazjnrtv571.png?width=675&format=png&auto=webp&s=1774acfca72e5c15ab2fa2c0491367356ed9b004)
|
||||
|
||||
- Gherkinit
|
||||
|
||||
Edit 10 3:34
|
||||
|
||||
Still very sideways directly between VWAP and 222.50 support
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/n75ngqjsov571.png?width=1637&format=png&auto=webp&s=19b74c47d4fdf9f29e6d4b81b3a9cecf96122096)
|
||||
|
||||
Edit 9 1:42
|
||||
|
||||
Volume is just completely dead sideways but still above 220
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/w913ih3w4v571.png?width=1644&format=png&auto=webp&s=8e1286676286e574071d9d5c8d22a8a80c260334)
|
||||
|
||||
Edit 8 12:21
|
||||
|
||||
Volume spike shorting occuring
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/yzz4p8yfqu571.png?width=1632&format=png&auto=webp&s=3bff4b150e8d07faa83ad9fce6ae445e2ab6b1c7)
|
||||
|
||||
Edit 7 12:14
|
||||
|
||||
Another double-bottom see if we can move through VWAP
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/djriaik4pu571.png?width=1650&format=png&auto=webp&s=b8d31752cfe6012c01052592c20f1552ae912b78)
|
||||
|
||||
Edit 6 11:51
|
||||
|
||||
Test of VWAP failed might come down to 226-27 or so
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/dcyppv0zku571.png?width=1617&format=png&auto=webp&s=1ee0b1b906405189492a47317ea9dd87c2750a1f)
|
||||
|
||||
Edit 5 11:27
|
||||
|
||||
Bull flag breakout got stuffed at resistance let's see if we can get a bounce and retest
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/5ls9uc1mgu571.png?width=1652&format=png&auto=webp&s=4f7352ee6e1517b32ffeb99835258d5d112b792d)
|
||||
|
||||
Edit 4 11:10
|
||||
|
||||
Ripping
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/epptctxmdu571.png?width=1645&format=png&auto=webp&s=5a5dcb4850ebbb0fe66edf9ea5e745dceae8d555)
|
||||
|
||||
Edit 3 10:07
|
||||
|
||||
Broke out if we hold the next resistance is at 242.50
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/hx79ee2j2u571.png?width=1653&format=png&auto=webp&s=7166053e71c666f1ecf2fac8f43fa74bc7d93edf)
|
||||
|
||||
Edit 2 10:00
|
||||
|
||||
Double bottom on the 1-minute
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/s6k18ak51u571.png?width=1631&format=png&auto=webp&s=4bf2078151109edaa6438d6c488cb7bfb6ed7b39)
|
||||
|
||||
Edit 1 9:50
|
||||
|
||||
Tested 230 right out of the gate failed dropped back below VWAP. If we cross over expect another test if we fall off expect a dip as they still have a bunch of shares available to short
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/y1t0c4jfzt571.png?width=1642&format=png&auto=webp&s=46dc5c686d1c14d36790ad11cad6b4b8903efbc1)
|
||||
|
||||
Pre-Market Analysis
|
||||
|
||||
Volume low. A bunch of shares borrowed 1.175M again. No relevant AH price action. Today is T+Something. Let's go
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/ukhmanbmtt571.png?width=1592&format=png&auto=webp&s=d72575ac12ec42dd0a9a88ed14c57901c6a6e2f0)
|
||||
|
||||
** Although my profession is day trading, I in no way endorse day-trading of GME not only does it present significant risk, it can delay the squeeze.*
|
||||
|
||||
**My YouTube channel is "monetized" if that is something you are uncomfortable with, I understand, while I wouldn't say I profit greatly from the views, I do suggest you use ad-block when viewing it if you feel so compelled.* *My intention is simply benefit this community. For those that find value in and feel compelled to reward my work, I thank you. For those that do not I encourage you to enjoy the content. As always this information is intended to be free to everyone.*
|
||||
|
||||
**This is not Financial advice. The ideas and opinions expressed here are for educational and entertainment purposes only.*
|
||||
|
||||
* *No position is worth your life and debt can always be repaid. Please if you need help reach out this community is here for you. Also the NSPL Phone: 800-273-8255 Hours: Available 24 hours. Languages: English, Spanish.* [*Learn more*](https://suicidepreventionlifeline.org/)
|
106
Live-Charting-Archives/2021-06-18-Live-Charting.md
Normal file
106
Live-Charting-Archives/2021-06-18-Live-Charting.md
Normal file
@ -0,0 +1,106 @@
|
||||
Jerkin' it with Gherkinit S3 E5 Live Charting for 6/18/21
|
||||
=========================================================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/gherkinit](https://www.reddit.com/user/gherkinit/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/o2nzmx/jerkin_it_with_gherkinit_s3_e5_live_charting_for/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
[Discussion 🦍](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22Discussion%20%F0%9F%A6%8D%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||
Happy Quad-Witching Superstonk!
|
||||
|
||||
What does this mean?
|
||||
|
||||
Historically nothing, but it's fun to talk about :
|
||||
|
||||
- Quadruple witching refers to a date on which derivatives of stock index futures, stock index options, stock options, and single stock futures expire simultaneously.
|
||||
|
||||
This doesn't necessarily infer market volatility but we could see increased arbitrage and volume today
|
||||
|
||||
I expect to see a lot of near OTM puts to get loaded up today with the ultimate goal to keep us trading at or near this weeks max pain of 220.
|
||||
|
||||
Hopefully by close of market today we hear some confirmation on the ATM offering, regardless I expect lots of volatility next week as the Russel rebalancing occurs.
|
||||
|
||||
If you guys haven't had a chance to [Check out this weeks forward looking TA](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nz1x01/jerkin_it_with_gherkinit_forward_looking_ta_for/)
|
||||
|
||||
Join us in the Daily Livestream <https://www.youtube.com/c/PickleFinancial>
|
||||
|
||||
Or listen along with our live audio feed on [Discord](https://discord.gg/HbqnUVsSrH)
|
||||
|
||||
(save these links in case reddit goes down)
|
||||
|
||||
Historical Resistance/Support:
|
||||
|
||||
116.5, 125.5, 132.5, 141, 145, 147.5, 150, 152.5, 157(previous ATM offering), 158.5, 162.5, 163, 165.5, 172, 174, 176.5, 179, 180.5, 182, 183.5, 184.5, 186, 187.5, 190.5, 192, 195, 196.5, 197.5, 200, 209, 211.5, 214.5, 218, 226, 232.5, 235, 242.5, 250, 255, 262.5, 275, 285, 300, 302.50, 310, 317.50, 325, 332.5, 345, 350, moon base...
|
||||
|
||||
After Market
|
||||
|
||||
Closed down from max pain. Today was as uneventful as expected, but at least we avoided the put gamma below 200. Stay tuned for my DD coming out this weekend and I will see you all bright and early Monday for another week of hopefully less sideways trading.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/p8j0p5uvy2671.png?width=702&format=png&auto=webp&s=fe1f7626d8e6101bd8a73ef0e098099d6b544e0a)
|
||||
|
||||
- Gherkinit
|
||||
|
||||
Edit 6 3:05
|
||||
|
||||
When people ask why we get dragged around by the market so much
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/w202yz6lo2671.png?width=1638&format=png&auto=webp&s=8d4f27902d3c301af955efb9f6c19c5aecc103b5)
|
||||
|
||||
Edit 5 2:22
|
||||
|
||||
Possible climb back to max pain intiated
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/gfhegf8tg2671.png?width=1632&format=png&auto=webp&s=ec376dc9088c4330d1f227c46b06f1de36076f47)
|
||||
|
||||
Edit 4 1:33
|
||||
|
||||
Still nothing this is just a slow day. The market is volatile but holding. GME no volume and just getting pulled around by market pressure. I expect closing at or near max pain is the best possibility for the day.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/f0hkiy3f82671.png?width=1647&format=png&auto=webp&s=143597e2dc17cd2e964682c49ced24866a26b8c0)
|
||||
|
||||
Edit 3 11:47
|
||||
|
||||
Slow climb back up to VWAP market down but holding. The volume is awful I wouldn't be surprised if we just end near or below max pain for the week.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/xlxidck8p1671.png?width=1655&format=png&auto=webp&s=76034f5e376e85b7f9bf8c23e708210f999ebdbc)
|
||||
|
||||
Edit 2 10:20
|
||||
|
||||
SPY is stabilizing for now GME running down on non-existent volume just hit 1M for the day. I'm not super worried about the price till below 210. After 210 there is a decent amount of put pressure.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/xt11irnv91671.png?width=1455&format=png&auto=webp&s=79705e994e124f5f94b71710269e0bbdb396efd5)
|
||||
|
||||
Edit 1 9:48
|
||||
|
||||
So GME just absolutely sideways. The market seems to be holding on. Looking to see if the spy slips 417.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/na4ubqe241671.png?width=1367&format=png&auto=webp&s=2819b1c336c022481d0c342bb21f67bbb8c3aca6)
|
||||
|
||||
Pre-Market Analysis
|
||||
|
||||
Pre-Edit 2 8:40
|
||||
|
||||
The spy has officially entered it's correction range I was waiting to confirm this. This looks at least moderately serious. If it crosses below that lower support we may be looking at a flash crash type scenario. This could benefit GME as it can force margin calls. Remain calm while GME might not have a crazy quad-witching the rest of the market could.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/6c7g5u7ur0671.png?width=1636&format=png&auto=webp&s=0e2fbf87b4ddf1000d1bd554b334f0cf3011f462)
|
||||
|
||||
Today will either be pretty flat with some downward pressure to maintain max pain . The shares borrowed yesterday have yet to be returned so shares available to borrow stands at 1.015M (1M from Fidelity). Pre-Market is pretty flat today Volume at 16k (8:15am EDT). With the broader market issues (SPY and RRP) and MSM pushing AMC this week we could just see more sideways trading till some sort of announcement is made.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/bzqlutbkn0671.png?width=1641&format=png&auto=webp&s=55ab11d40c695363ce7da9d8e5af4df14ae91ba8)
|
||||
|
||||
One other note the cup & handle from this [weeks DD](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nz1x01/jerkin_it_with_gherkinit_forward_looking_ta_for/) looks like it is nearing it's breakout on the 1D and the lower Bollinger band has moved back inside the Keltner channel (indicating higher probability of breakout) .
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/dublvdplo0671.png?width=2038&format=png&auto=webp&s=f0bf858eaf343e7cf6d680bd5a8b0ebfae95801b)
|
||||
|
||||
Cup & Handle on 1D timescale
|
||||
|
||||
** Although my profession is day trading, I in no way endorse day-trading of GME not only does it present significant risk, it can delay the squeeze.*
|
||||
|
||||
**My YouTube channel is "monetized" if that is something you are uncomfortable with, I understand, while I wouldn't say I profit greatly from the views, I do suggest you use ad-block when viewing it if you feel so compelled.* *My intention is simply benefit this community. For those that find value in and feel compelled to reward my work, I thank you. For those that do not I encourage you to enjoy the content. As always this information is intended to be free to everyone.*
|
||||
|
||||
**This is not Financial advice. The ideas and opinions expressed here are for educational and entertainment purposes only.*
|
||||
|
||||
* *No position is worth your life and debt can always be repaid. Please if you need help reach out this community is here for you. Also the NSPL Phone: 800-273-8255 Hours: Available 24 hours. Languages: English, Spanish.* [*Learn more*](https://suicidepreventionlifeline.org/)
|
@ -0,0 +1,32 @@
|
||||
'Meme' stock prices may not properly reflect demand -NYSE president
|
||||
===================================================================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [John Mccrank](https://www.reuters.com/journalists/john-mccrank) | [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/business/meme-stock-prices-may-not-properly-reflect-demand-nyse-president-2021-06-16/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
NEW YORK, June 16 (Reuters) - The prices of so-called meme stocks may be distorted because the majority of trades in those names are executed away from public exchanges where share price formation occurs, the head of the New York Stock Exchange said on Wednesday.
|
||||
|
||||
["Meme stocks,"](https://www.reuters.com/business/gamestop-tumbles-clover-health-rises-meme-stock-rollercoaster-2021-06-10/) which often start as low-priced, highly shorted stocks that users of online forums such as Reddit's WallStreetBets rally behind, are some of the most heavily traded and volatile shares on any given day.
|
||||
|
||||
Shares of companies like video game retailer GameStop Corp [(GME.N)](https://www.reuters.com/companies/GME.N) and theater chain operator AMC Entertainment [(AMC.N)](https://www.reuters.com/companies/AMC.N) have whipsawed this year, with GameStop having rallied more than 1,600% in January alone, prompting trading halts by some brokers and [sparking Congressional and regulatory hearings](https://www.reuters.com/business/legal/long-tense-with-cat-photo-relief-how-gamestop-hearing-unfolded-2021-02-19/).
|
||||
|
||||
"In some of the meme stocks that we've seen, or stocks that have a high level of retail participation, the vast majority of order flow can trade off of exchanges, which is problematic," said Stacey Cunningham, president of Intercontinental Exchange Inc's [(ICE.N)](https://www.reuters.com/companies/ICE.N) NYSE.
|
||||
|
||||
"That price formation is not really reflective of what supply and demand is," she said at a conference hosted by CNBC.
|
||||
|
||||
Retail trading surged during the coronavirus pandemic, helped by a shift by retail brokerages to commission-free trading, with individual traders now responsible for around 35% of market volume, up from 20% pre-pandemic.
|
||||
|
||||
In meme stocks, individual traders contribute as much as 70% of the volume, Cunningham said.
|
||||
|
||||
The majority of retail orders bypass exchanges because of an arrangement called payment for order flow, in which retail brokerages sell their customers' marketable orders to wholesale brokers. The wholesalers match the orders internally, trying to profit off of the bid-ask spread, while offering retail traders the best market price or better.
|
||||
|
||||
Retail brokers say payment for order flow lowers overall costs for individual traders.
|
||||
|
||||
But the practice raises conflict of interest questions and will be included in a [broad review of stock market rules](https://www.reuters.com/legal/litigation/us-sec-chair-gensler-staff-recommend-rules-ensure-fair-competition-between-2021-06-09/), Gary Gensler, chair of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, said last week.
|
||||
|
||||
The review will also examine whether off-exchange trading - which is about 50% of the market when institutional block trades are included - distorts the price discovery mechanism for stocks, Gensler said.
|
||||
|
||||
Reporting by John McCrank in New York Editing by Matthew Lewis
|
@ -0,0 +1,194 @@
|
||||
The naked shorting scam in numbers part deux: Up to date FTD, ETF, SI, Options & Dark Pool Data. GME is the shorted to shit unicorn that can never happen again.
|
||||
================================================================================================================================================================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/broccaaa](https://www.reddit.com/user/broccaaa/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/o14ccz/the_naked_shorting_scam_in_numbers_part_deux_up/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
[DD 👨🔬](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22DD%20%F0%9F%91%A8%E2%80%8D%F0%9F%94%AC%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||
Introduction
|
||||
|
||||
Since my last major post a lot's happened with our favourite stonk. Top DD apes like [u/criand](https://www.reddit.com/u/criand/) and [u/HomeDepotHank69](https://www.reddit.com/u/HomeDepotHank69/) have dug into how the FTD cycle impacts price down the road. [u/RocketApes](https://www.reddit.com/u/RocketApes/) managed to build a model to predict GME price movements. And we saw another big price movement up to the edge of $350.
|
||||
|
||||
The purpose of this post is to update a lot of the figures I've shared previously while adding a few more observations. I'll give brief descriptions of what each figure is showing but I'll not go into deep speculation here. Instead I'll possibly work on a follow up theory post in the coming days but already make all the data in this post available to the community.
|
||||
|
||||
My previous posts went into a lot more speculation and can be referenced if you're interested in going deeper in a particular area:
|
||||
|
||||
1. [The naked shorting scam revealed: lending of market maker privileges, the married put trade and why inflicting max pain will bleed them dry](https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/comments/mgj0j1/the_naked_shorting_scam_revealed_lending_of/)
|
||||
|
||||
2. [The naked shorting scam update: selling nude like its 2021](https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/comments/mh6lnz/the_naked_shorting_scam_update_selling_nude_like/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3)
|
||||
|
||||
3. [The naked shorting scam in numbers: AI detection of 140M hidden FTDs, up to 400M naked shorts in married puts and massive dark pool activity by Shitadel and the shorts](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/mvdgf5/the_naked_shorting_scam_in_numbers_ai_detection/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3)
|
||||
|
||||
4. [The naked shorting scam using ETFs: mass shifting of FTDs from GME to 20+ ETFs & 27+ billion dollars still owed in remaining SI](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/n1vgbb/the_naked_shorting_scam_using_etfs_mass_shifting/)
|
||||
|
||||
5. [All New 13F filings: data visualised for all major fund position changes and the new short players in GME](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nev6po/all_new_13f_filings_data_visualised_for_all_major/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3)
|
||||
|
||||
6. [Analysis deep dive: looking at historical SI% + FTD data and modelling share borrow fees since Jan](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/mma7eh/analysis_deep_dive_looking_at_historical_si_ftd/)
|
||||
|
||||
Now to get into the data and see what the fuck has been going on with reported stonk numbers in the last weeks.
|
||||
|
||||
*Note: this is not financial advice. I am not a cat. I gathered some data, made some figures and tried to understand them. Any number of my interpretations could be flawed and wrong. Do your own research, make your own mind up.*
|
||||
|
||||
Understanding the Cycle: Fails to deliver (FTDs) in GME and linked ETFs
|
||||
|
||||
A lot of great posts in recent weeks have looked at T-21, T-35 and more recently net capital requirement cycles. Other apes have pointed out that price often moves upward just before short interest (SI) reporting cycles to manipulate down their numbers.
|
||||
|
||||
Although elements to all these theories are now close to proven there remain some outstanding questions. Why are the cycles apparently so clean without many overlapping cycles? What is the exact trigger for the shorts' FTD countdowns?
|
||||
|
||||
I don't have the answer to these but I'll put out a bunch of data that might help the other wrinkly apes improve their theories. In later sections I also try to understand what is linking the different 'meme' stock price movements in 2021.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/vd301zksol571.png?width=4500&format=png&auto=webp&s=fc0e1e050248189449d35e7cb5f498a39bb694d3)
|
||||
|
||||
Total FTDs for GME and selected ETFs in 2021 with GME close price overlaid.
|
||||
|
||||
Fails in GME dropped off after the January mini-squeeze but were transferred over to GME containing ETFs from February onwards. IWM and XRT are the most popular ETFs to naked short and fail on. In mid-May IWM, the *iShares Russell 2000 ETF*, had a massive 4 million share spike in FTDs. GME price began to rise steadily shortly after.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/12jl7hzuol571.png?width=4500&format=png&auto=webp&s=d2cde3c0a6237ea464cb419c6664b5b9fba393ce)
|
||||
|
||||
Total FTDs for GME and all ETFs combined in 2021 with GME close price overlaid.
|
||||
|
||||
Although I only selected the top 19 GME containing ETFs for most of the analyses (first figure), when I grouped all GME containing ETFs together (more than 70 of them) we see that the pattern of FTDs in 2021 is very similar. This means that the selected 19 ETFs contain almost all of the interesting FTD info.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/wb6gjdhzll571.png?width=4500&format=png&auto=webp&s=cdf92de9dbaebbd1542211b936f8ade353235cc9)
|
||||
|
||||
Total FTDs for GME and selected ETFs in since Jan 2020 with GME close price overlaid.
|
||||
|
||||
Looking back on GME and ETF FTDs since Jan 2020 we see that the recent large spike in IWM FTDs is actually relatively small compared to some of the FTD spikes seen in 2020. On 3 separate occasions in 2020 IWM FTDs spiked to over 8 million shares.
|
||||
|
||||
The link between GME and other 'meme' stocks
|
||||
|
||||
So it's clear to anyone that's been watching GME and the 'movie stock' for a while that they move together in a way that would not make sense in a free market.
|
||||
|
||||
Here's a figure I put together covering up to the end of May 2021. Clear correlation and fuckery between these 3 stocks.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/0oeky4jf5m571.jpg?width=2414&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=3fb2229a8e39b33b8e9cd7475ab6c2febb67b7c7)
|
||||
|
||||
2021 price movements for GME and 2 other well known 'meme' stocks
|
||||
|
||||
Since I made this figure the movie stock has diverged from the GME trend. But why? Here are some figures to compare and some basic speculation.
|
||||
|
||||
Value of fails for meme stocks: GME, movie and headphone stocks
|
||||
|
||||
These plots take a look at total fail values for meme stocks and associated ETFs. It's important to plot these in fail value rather than total failed shares because each stock has a different free float and share price.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/jf8ckih0pl571.png?width=4500&format=png&auto=webp&s=18d9d3ad79f57ed2b9e9c91523f37a255abee1d1)
|
||||
|
||||
Total Value of FTD fails for GME and selected ETFs in 2021 with GME close price overlaid.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/36ip4ow4pl571.png?width=4500&format=png&auto=webp&s=c64a8b6b2019578e71414cddd1c7cb0e722b2dff)
|
||||
|
||||
Total Value of FTD fails for movie-stock and selected ETFs in 2021 with close price overlaid.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/lkyluj83pl571.png?width=4500&format=png&auto=webp&s=966ade7d1862e23bfe7c7f65c95a40de19812295)
|
||||
|
||||
Total Value of FTD fails for headphone-stock and selected ETFs in 2021 with close price overlaid.
|
||||
|
||||
What do we notice? Well the value of fails for movie-stock and headphone-stock has always been relatively small with just a single day in January with large $100+ million dollar for each of these. GME has larger fail values in Jan across multiple days but has then dropped off in following months.
|
||||
|
||||
GME also has large fails across a bunch of ETFs but with most of the fail values occurring in IWM. *The movie-stock and headphone-stock only have fails for IWM*.
|
||||
|
||||
What links these different meme-stocks is their inclusion in the same *iShares Russell 2000 ETF - IWM.* IWM has been shorted to shit since Covid came around. It must've seemed like an obvious choice to short a bunch of vulnerable companies all at the same time. Fails are massive for IWM with up to 5-10% of total ETF shares failing on certain days in the last year.
|
||||
|
||||
Reported Short Interest for meme stocks: GME, movie and headphone stocks
|
||||
|
||||
Now we've looked at FTDs in these meme stocks let's take a look at reported short interest. This number is prone to manipulation and is reported by the very people that benefit from manipulating the number down. That being said let's see how the 'official' numbers compare.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/pcnirq7lpl571.png?width=4500&format=png&auto=webp&s=fe4db101d80512e6893f3556bf013cbaea7581bb)
|
||||
|
||||
Total value of reported SI for GME and selected ETFs.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/ww7elprnql571.png?width=4500&format=png&auto=webp&s=8f655b223c2d571cf593e298c7819b1d40780daf)
|
||||
|
||||
Total value of reported SI for movie-stock and selected ETFs.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/a7w7eufpql571.png?width=4500&format=png&auto=webp&s=bb7e5662c999646ea6ac02d539ebf6de29a6b9c6)
|
||||
|
||||
Total value of reported SI for headphone-stock and selected ETFs.
|
||||
|
||||
Movie-stock SI value owed is almost exclusively coming from IWM. Since the recent run up the reported SI for the movie-stock has also increased to a similar value owed for current GME reported SI value.
|
||||
|
||||
For the headphone-stock the vast amount of reported SI value is coming from the IWM and XOP ETFs.
|
||||
|
||||
The value of GME reported OI is also dominated by the huge open short position in IWM but also with relatively large short positions in XRT and VTI.
|
||||
|
||||
So the IWM open short position is insane. Current value owed by reported IWM shorts is $30 billion when total IWM net assets are just $68 billion. That's 44% of all assets in the ETF that have been short sold with a borrow. This doesn't even include the huge number of FTDs and naked short selling for IWM in the last year.
|
||||
|
||||
Open Options Interest for meme stocks: GME and movie stocks
|
||||
|
||||
One of the weirdest things that happened after the end of Jan mini-squeeze is that open put interest in GME spiked to some pretty insane levels. [I previously suggested that this could be due to options fuckery to hide short positions](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/mvdgf5/the_naked_shorting_scam_in_numbers_ai_detection/).
|
||||
|
||||
At the end of Jan 1.5 million new put contracts were opened in just a couple of days. These contracts cover 150 million shares. Most were in junk strike prices (e.g. $0.50) that were never likely to be reached again. Recently other DD apes like [u/Leenixus](https://www.reddit.com/user/Leenixus/) have [reported finding more weird put option activity](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nxgcu5/i_taut_i_taw_a_married_put_i_did_i_did_see/).
|
||||
|
||||
Here I'll compare open option interest for GME and the movie-stock. Headphone-stock does not have options as far as I can tell. Data was obtained from [marketchameleon.com](https://marketchameleon.com/) .
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/za8mj3bexl571.png?width=4032&format=png&auto=webp&s=3d0dd92c078bf8fba10cb2c4e542788a7d098610)
|
||||
|
||||
Total open interest for puts & calls for GME since Jan 2020.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/ozvo22ffxl571.png?width=4032&format=png&auto=webp&s=aea9d6aa5a6fcb77a45467dc49add853196c7e8e)
|
||||
|
||||
Total open interest for puts & calls for GME since Jan 2020.
|
||||
|
||||
So a massive spike in GME open put interest in January that disconnected from all previous levels. A large number of puts expired in April and 410k more will expire on July 16th. Despite prices dropping down to $40 in Feb and many options expiry dates coming and going, open put interest for GME still sits at around 1 million contracts. For GME only approx. 300k put contracts were reported in 13Fs despite 1.5 million being held. *Who holds the puts? Family offices?? Shells??*
|
||||
|
||||
For the movie-stock the picture is quite different. Puts and call open interest never really diverged. The recent major run up has increased the number of open put contracts but it's still in line with the number of calls. Even at this high of 2 million open contracts it is important to remember that the movie-stock free float is approx. 10-times larger than for GME. So even with this recent bump in open interest, options fuckery is much less obvious and even if it were occurring the magnitude is 10% or less than what we've seen in GME.
|
||||
|
||||
Meme Stock Summary
|
||||
|
||||
Many of the weird indicators for GME do not show up as clearly in other meme-stocks. The most obvious similarity between them is that all 3 of the main meme stocks are part of the IWM ETF which has been shorted to shit this last year. GME is about to move out of the IWM Russell 2000 ETF and this could explode the shorts FTD juggling.
|
||||
|
||||
Why is the movie-stock moving more than GME recently? I don't really know. My guess would be that it's got extra hype at the moment but the naked short indicators are just not there. They never have been. In 2020 the max movie-stock reported SI was about 20% while GME was at the reporting limit of 140% for months. Why would they manipulate movie-stock reporting when they were so careless to report GME SI% of 140%??
|
||||
|
||||
In terms of options fuckery I just don't see it as clearly for movie-stock as for GME. There is nothing particularly out of the ordinary in the open interest. I've also not seen anyone identify deep ITM calls or married puts for the movie-stock when it's been so easy for GME and found independently over many different dates.
|
||||
|
||||
I wish the movie-stock apes all the best but worry that they might just be riding the hype. For GME on the other hand I believe that the hole has been getting deeper and deeper since the known minimum SI% of 140% reported in Jan before the major fuckery even began.
|
||||
|
||||
Dark Pool Trading in 'Squeeze Stocks'
|
||||
|
||||
In the past I reported some weird behaviour in OTC trading in GME. I took anther look and extended the analysis to 73 stocks that appear to have squeezed in 2021. This list of stocks was taken from the work of [u/BurnieSlander](https://www.reddit.com/user/BurnieSlander/) and [his post on squeeze stocks](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nzajpv/the_matrix_is_everywhere_a_quant_dd/).
|
||||
|
||||
I selected 73 stocks that have sustained a 200% growth since Jan. I then compared how these stocks have been trading compared to 9600 other stocks that trade OTC.
|
||||
|
||||
*Important note: Each stock has a different number of shares outstanding and share price. To compare these stocks I first normalised each of them by subtracting their mean value for the window and dividing by the standard deviation.*
|
||||
|
||||
The following plots show relative differences in OTC trading based on each shares' normalised values.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/4ilrlxa7ul571.png?width=4500&format=png&auto=webp&s=ed29834cb0cbe1ad488e59e687438ef10df52d02)
|
||||
|
||||
Normalised OCT trading volumes for 'Squeeze' stocks and other typical stocks.
|
||||
|
||||
Through January and early Feb the squeeze stocks saw a spike in OTC trading volume on average compared to a typical stock. The total shares traded OTC were not substantially different to other stocks before or after the January period.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/g5emeccotl571.png?width=4500&format=png&auto=webp&s=76d9229b8cdfffef0e2286f523c19e3998dc74a5)
|
||||
|
||||
Normalised OCT trading volumes for 'Squeeze' stocks and other typical stocks.
|
||||
|
||||
When we look at average shares per trade the picture is different. Note that because the data is normalised we are just looking at the relative changes over time for the squeeze stock and typical stock groups.
|
||||
|
||||
Typical stocks have not seen any major change in the average OTC trade size. The value is flat over time. For the squeeze stocks we see a dramatic shift. Particularly from January onwards, the number of shares per trade seen OTC dropped dramatically. This means smaller and smaller batches are traded OTC compared to their historical norm.
|
||||
|
||||
Some of this could be because of retail taking part in more trades and PFOF issues but I can't believe that retail is driving this consistently across 73 different stocks. Why would order size OTC drop in recent months? Could it be wash sales or 'short ladder attacks' to manipulate prices? Wrinkle apes needed for this!
|
||||
|
||||
TLDR; / Conclusion
|
||||
|
||||
Go take a look at the figures! I tried to explain as clearly as I could. The best way to understand is to look at the figures yourself. That being said here are some highlights:
|
||||
|
||||
- Huge FTDs and SI% in the IWM ETF appear to link GME and other meme stonks
|
||||
|
||||
- A recent spike in IWM FTDs may have helped to drive the recent run up in meme-stocks
|
||||
|
||||
- IWM is the iShares Russell 2000 ETF. GME will move out of this soon. How will the shorts adapt their FTD juggling? Will it even be possible for them??
|
||||
|
||||
- GME continues to have huge open put interest and observed options fuckery. Many more puts expiring on July 16.
|
||||
|
||||
- Movie stock does not have any obvious options fuckery as far as I can see. If it's there then the scale is probably no more than 10% compared to GME.
|
||||
|
||||
- OTC data is weird and consistent across more than 70 different stocks that have maintained 200%+ gains since January. Why are average OTC trade sizes so small for these 70 stocks? Could this be wash sales to manipulate prices down? Something else??
|
||||
|
||||
I've been zen with GME for months now and full YOLO. I wanted to get a 200+ million vote count announced but what we got changes nothing. Evidence of mass fuckery with GME for months. Price movements that make the fuckery undeniable. Huge GME fails and SI hidden in options and ETFs that will eventually unravel. A great team of execs now at Gamestop leading the turn around. In short, I like the stock.
|
||||
|
||||
🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀
|
98
README.md
98
README.md
@ -1,17 +1,34 @@
|
||||
# A central place for apes to learn about stonks. This is not financial advice.
|
||||
<h1 align="center"> wikAPEdia </h1>
|
||||
|
||||
### Overview
|
||||
<h3 align="center">
|
||||
A central place for apes to learn about stonks. This is not financial advice.
|
||||
</h3>
|
||||
|
||||
|
||||

|
||||
|
||||
|
||||
|
||||
## Overview
|
||||
This repository of GME-related content and relevant information serves two primary purposes:
|
||||
1. Organize useful information so that it can be easily referenced in the future.
|
||||
2. Create an archive/backup of relevant posts in case Reddit goes down or information is deleted from the internet.
|
||||
1. **Organize** useful information so that it can be easily referenced in the future.
|
||||
2. Create an **archive** of relevant posts in case Reddit goes down or information is deleted from the internet.
|
||||
|
||||
> ❗❗❗ **PLEASE READ** ❗❗❗
|
||||
>
|
||||
> Please note most if not all of this content is not my own. All authors and sources are linked at the top of each file, and I encourage you to read the content via the source. There are a lot of intelligent apes who spent copious amounts of time doing their research and deserve your upvote!
|
||||
|
||||
## Key Features
|
||||
### Search by Date
|
||||

|
||||
|
||||
### Search by Title
|
||||

|
||||
|
||||
### Browse by Theme
|
||||

|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
### Featured Posts and Important Information
|
||||
## Featured Posts and Important Information
|
||||
| Theme | Title | Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: | :-------------: |:-------------:| :-------------:|
|
||||
| Privacy & Protection | Ape Security Protocols | [u/redchessqueen99](https://www.reddit.com/user/redchessqueen99/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nsgv3d/ape_security_protocols/) |
|
||||
@ -23,6 +40,71 @@ This repository of GME-related content and relevant information serves two prima
|
||||
| Market Manipulation | Compilation of Every Manipulation Tactic used by Hedge Funds | [u/Golden_D9](https://www.reddit.com/user/Golden_D9/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/n8mizw/here_is_a_complete_compilation_documenting_the/) |
|
||||
| Market Manipulation | A Definitive Guide about Naked Shorting | [u/sharkbaitlol](https://www.reddit.com/user/sharkbaitlol/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nt0ojl/everything_superstonk_knows_about_naked_shorting/) |
|
||||
| DD | Hank's Big Bang | [u/HomeDepotHank69](https://www.reddit.com/user/HomeDepotHank69/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nu9qq9/hanks_big_bang_quant_apes_glitch_the_simulation/) |
|
||||
| DD | The Bigger Short | [u/Criand](https://www.reddit.com/user/Criand/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/o0scoy/the_bigger_short_how_2008_is_repeating_at_a_much/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
### Buy, Hodl, Vote 💎🙌
|
||||
## Some People to Look Out For by [u/zedinstead](https://www.reddit.com/u/zedinstead/)
|
||||
|
||||
Exponential Floor guy -- [u/JTH1](https://www.reddit.com/u/JTH1/)
|
||||
|
||||
Elliot Waves guy -- [u/possibly6](https://www.reddit.com/u/possibly6/)
|
||||
|
||||
Trading Sideways guy - [u/earthysoup](https://www.reddit.com/u/earthysoup/)
|
||||
|
||||
Gamma Spike girl -- [u/yelyah2](https://www.reddit.com/u/yelyah2/)
|
||||
|
||||
Daily Reverse Repo Update guy -- [u/pctracer](https://www.reddit.com/u/pctracer/)
|
||||
|
||||
Linear Regression girl - [u/PWNWTFBBQ](https://www.reddit.com/u/PWNWTFBBQ/)
|
||||
|
||||
Bloomberg Terminal guy - [u/Ravada](https://www.reddit.com/u/Ravada/)
|
||||
|
||||
Ape News Network guy - [u/mr_boost](https://www.reddit.com/u/mr_boost/)
|
||||
|
||||
Airborne Ape guy - [u/yerffejytnac](https://www.reddit.com/u/yerffejytnac/)
|
||||
|
||||
Camera Pointed at Citadel guy - [u/hapilly_unemployed](https://www.reddit.com/u/hapilly_unemployed/)
|
||||
|
||||
Pickle guy - [u/gherkinit](https://www.reddit.com/u/gherkinit/)
|
||||
|
||||
FTD Cycle guy - [u/criand](https://www.reddit.com/u/criand/)
|
||||
|
||||
SEC FOIA guy - [u/Leenixus](https://www.reddit.com/u/Leenixus/)
|
||||
|
||||
Confirmation Bias guy - [u/HomeDepotHank69](https://www.reddit.com/u/HomeDepotHank69/)
|
||||
|
||||
Daisy Ridley Not Selling guy - [u/aroflip](https://www.reddit.com/u/aroflip/)
|
||||
|
||||
Diamantenhände guy -- [u/DerGurkenraspler](https://www.reddit.com/u/DerGurkenraspler/) (currently [u/Parsnip](https://www.reddit.com/u/Parsnip/))
|
||||
|
||||
See You All Tomorrow guy - [u/mmokay_north](https://www.reddit.com/u/mmokay_north/)
|
||||
|
||||
Nightly Fireside Chat guy - [u/RallyInTheNorth](https://www.reddit.com/u/RallyInTheNorth/)
|
||||
|
||||
No Stupid Questions guy - [u/QuantumIdeal](https://www.reddit.com/u/QuantumIdeal/)
|
||||
|
||||
Counter DD guy - [u/dentisttft](https://www.reddit.com/u/dentisttft/)
|
||||
|
||||
Dank Meme guy - [u/ButtFarm69](https://www.reddit.com/u/ButtFarm69/)
|
||||
|
||||
Daily Discussion Chaos guy - [u/scrollwheeler](https://www.reddit.com/u/scrollwheeler/)
|
||||
|
||||
Morphing Kenny guy - [u/MrFerno](https://www.reddit.com/u/MrFerno/)
|
||||
|
||||
Old Commercial guy - [u/RiverJumper84](https://www.reddit.com/u/RiverJumper84/)
|
||||
|
||||
Narrator guy - [u/Doom_Douche](https://www.reddit.com/u/Doom_Douche/)
|
||||
|
||||
Soundtrack guy - [u/BodySurfDan](https://www.reddit.com/u/BodySurfDan/)
|
||||
|
||||
Song in Comments of the Daily Stonk guy - [u/MacTheKn1f3](https://www.reddit.com/u/MacTheKn1f3/)
|
||||
|
||||
Poem guy - [u/F4hype](https://www.reddit.com/u/F4hype/)
|
||||
|
||||
Quant guy 1 - [u/xpurplexamyx](https://www.reddit.com/u/xpurplexamyx/)
|
||||
|
||||
Quant guy 2 - [u/myplayprofile](https://www.reddit.com/u/myplayprofile/)
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
### Buy, Hodl, ~~Vote~~ 💎🙌
|
||||
|
12
Regulations/2021-06-16-TLDR-of-Regulations.md
Normal file
12
Regulations/2021-06-16-TLDR-of-Regulations.md
Normal file
@ -0,0 +1,12 @@
|
||||
TL;DR: Regulations Edition - Updated [2021-06-16]
|
||||
=================================================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/stevetheimpact](https://www.reddit.com/user/stevetheimpact/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/o10x4m/tldr_regulations_edition_updated_20210616/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
[Education 👨🏫 | Data 🔢](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22Education%20%F0%9F%91%A8%E2%80%8D%F0%9F%8F%AB%20%7C%20Data%20%F0%9F%94%A2%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||
[![r/Superstonk - TL;DR: Regulations Edition - Updated [2021-06-16]](https://preview.redd.it/rtvvhi4dkl571.png?width=960&crop=smart&auto=webp&s=4feb499b4e48ae40e1d35a57795f6f81fbd0446e)](https://i.redd.it/rtvvhi4dkl571.png)
|
@ -0,0 +1,74 @@
|
||||
SR-DTC-2021-005 Stops Rehypothecation (Re-lending Shares) 📝
|
||||
============================================================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/IPromisedNoPosts](https://www.reddit.com/user/IPromisedNoPosts/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/o0r6bk/srdtc2021005_stops_rehypothecation_relending/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
[Education 👨🏫 | Data 🔢](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22Education%20%F0%9F%91%A8%E2%80%8D%F0%9F%8F%AB%20%7C%20Data%20%F0%9F%94%A2%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||
<https://www.dtcc.com/-/media/Files/Downloads/legal/rule-filings/2021/DTC/SR-DTC-2021-005.pdf>
|
||||
|
||||
Edit: This is about using the transferred securities as collateral for any other borrowing (margin) activities or even to make their balance sheets look good. The fact that the pledgee (borrower) no longer has the securities moved to their account means they cannot use it again as collateral - i.e. rehypothecation. This. Is. Huge. and. Tits. Are. Jacked.
|
||||
|
||||
Edit2: If DTC marks the shares with a "system notation", it is possible that the new share ownership - generated during a short sale - can then be bought and sold as a normal share but has the condition of "cannot be used as collateral". This would mean no rehypothecation and thus a company cannot be shorted over 100% (like a lien on a house)
|
||||
|
||||
Synopsis
|
||||
|
||||
As most apes know, short selling is done by borrowing a stock and selling it right away. The stock is then bought back later (hopefully at a lower price) and they return the share and pocket the difference.
|
||||
|
||||
Before this rule change, a share being borrowed would be moved from the lender's account to the borrower's account. This was to make sure the lender didn't lend out the share again. But it didn't say anything about the borrower!
|
||||
|
||||
This rule change says that the share now stays in the lender's account and is marked as borrowed by the borrower, and it is part of a legal agreement.
|
||||
|
||||
What's Changed?
|
||||
|
||||
All the actual changes can be seen in Exhibit 5 on Pages 111-115, and you'll see that the language for the Guide and the Agreement goes from moving the security to the pledgee's (borrower's) account to simply making a system notation. This is a huge change, regardless of how DTC was tracking it.
|
||||
|
||||
The Pledgee's (Borrower's) Agreement used to say:
|
||||
|
||||
> When pledging securities to a pledgee, the pledgor's position is moved from the pledgor's general free account to the pledgee's account which prevents the pledged position from being used to complete other transactions.
|
||||
|
||||
This was to prevent fuckery by the pledgor (lender), but adding it to the pledgee's (borrower's) account allows for rehypothecation. Instead the change to the Pledgee's Agreement now says:
|
||||
|
||||
> When Pledging securities to a Pledgee, the Pledgor's position continues to be credited to the Pledgor's account, however with a system notation showing the status of the position as Pledged by the Pledgor to the Pledgee. This status systemically prevents the Pledged position from being used to complete other transactions.
|
||||
|
||||
This now covers both pledgor (lender) and pledgee (borrower) from rehypothecation of the share.
|
||||
|
||||
Example for a 5 year old
|
||||
|
||||
When your brother Johnny borrows your bike and gives you a cookie for your trouble, you and Johnny used to just "remember" that it's your bike and then Johnny could say that it's his bike (even though Mom and Dad said they took a note that it's your bike). That meant that Johnny could lend out your bike to someone else and get a cookie.
|
||||
|
||||
This rule puts a sign on your bike when Jonny borrows it saying "This is a borrowed bike" so that no one else can borrow it.
|
||||
|
||||
(Johnny is a trifling hedgefuck in this example)
|
||||
|
||||
Misleading "It's just a technicality" Statement
|
||||
|
||||
There is a misleading statement in the filing (Page 15)
|
||||
|
||||
> DTC believes there is a general misunderstanding of the purpose of this proposed rule change. For the sake of clarity, and as more fully described above, this proposed rule change will not alter DTC's current practices...This is the existing practice today and will not change. Rather, the proposed change will clarify the text of the Settlement Guide to better reflect the current practice.
|
||||
|
||||
The filing updates both the Settlement Guide and the Pledgee's Agreement!
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/3ojxg4f7ii571.png?width=604&format=png&auto=webp&s=98bbba65cb1f48e7df85f71ab4d5e45a664f7a95)
|
||||
|
||||
Description section of the SEC Filing Form 19b-4
|
||||
|
||||
How Does It Affect Apes?
|
||||
|
||||
It is apparent that any future short positions taken will no longer allow reyhypothecation, but there are some things to consider:
|
||||
|
||||
1. Are the Pledgee's Agreement changes applied to already-signed agreements? If not, will they issue an agreement to re-sign?
|
||||
|
||||
2. How is a stock impacted at the end of an FTD cycle
|
||||
|
||||
3. How are options practices affected?
|
||||
|
||||
The changes in this filing pertain to the DTC's "Collateral Loan Program" and I'm hoping someone else can help answer how #2 and #3 are impacted (if at all) by this change.
|
||||
|
||||
TL;DA No more rehypothecation fuckiness.
|
||||
|
||||
🦍 🦍 🦍 🦍 🦍 + 💎✋ = 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🌕
|
@ -0,0 +1,38 @@
|
||||
No, 005 isn't a dud, get that FUD out of here. Let me explain
|
||||
=============================================================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/Carb0n12](https://www.reddit.com/user/Carb0n12/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/o0pem0/no_005_isnt_a_dud_get_that_fud_out_of_here_let_me/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
[Education 👨🏫 | Data 🔢](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22Education%20%F0%9F%91%A8%E2%80%8D%F0%9F%8F%AB%20%7C%20Data%20%F0%9F%94%A2%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||
I am going to keep this brief, because I am seeing this narrative being blown up already through this subreddit and on various discords concerning the comment made on page 15, section 5 within DTC-2021-005.
|
||||
|
||||
Allow me to elaborate:
|
||||
|
||||
1. No, 005 is not a dud, its legitimately what many investors have been asking for. Understanding the context of the statement made in 005, specifically page 15, section 5 will help in fighting the FUD and understanding how IMPORTANT 005 is.
|
||||
|
||||
2. TO put it bluntly, the DTCC is covering their asses with the statement made on page 15, section 5. Its as simple as that. The statement made in the documentation (page 15, section 5) was purely for public facing knowledge, specifically for us apes, and any other inquiring eyes (lawyers, media etc). Why the hell would the DTCC admit on paper, on a public facing document that they knew of the illegal activities involving FTDs? Of course they are going to lie and lie more to CYA. That's what they do.
|
||||
|
||||
3. 005 essentially "forces" the DTCC's hand via a public facing document to acknowledge and plug up the holes that allow the issue of rehypothecated counterfeit shares being used to reset FTD's as well as add clarification for DTC members/pledgee's responsibilities, expectations, etc. 005 is made to acknowledge this issue without "acknowledging" that they knew and supported the rehypothecation of counterfeit shares used for various criminal acts. Once again, CYA. Please see [u/weekenddev](https://www.reddit.com/u/weekenddev/)'s interpretation on how this all ties together.
|
||||
|
||||
4. 005 is a ruling that, once again, according to the DTCC, via their little "comment" on page 15, section 5, "reinforces" their "stance" on how they "tackle" the issue as they legally are bound to do so. They try to subvert investor's expectation by stating that they already have been following the rulings within 005, and that 005 is simply a "reformatting" and clarification ruling. This is complete and utter bullshit. This document (whilst still important in the grand scheme of FTD's and how they are handled) and the DTCC's comment reeks of plausible deniability.
|
||||
|
||||
5. Note that 005 is unlike any of the rulings they have made in the past. I personally have combed through years of DTCC rulings the past several months and this is the first of its kind. Indeed they can lie through playing coy on paper, but we all know that 005 is here because of the current situation with GME and the state of the stock market at large. They cannot keep up this façade for much longer.
|
||||
|
||||
6. This ruling also is a narrative move. Once again, I CANNOT STRESS THIS ENOUGH, this ruling is extremely important to the DTC/CC's "CYA, hide the bodies" motive. The OCC, ICC, NSCC (801/002 this week or next Monday fyi) have made their moves, and now the DTCC is finished with theirs as we know it.
|
||||
|
||||
TL;DR - 005 isn't just about the raw content/subject matter (greatly reducing the power of resetting FTD's, counterfeit share rehypothecation, pledgee accounts, access, responsibilities, etc). ITS ABOUT CYA through thinly veiled CONTEXT, risk transference, risk mitigation/control and playing coy with some statements injected in the new revision. And, oh boy with these new edits/remarks, the timing of its release and the soft doxxing they performed, well lets just say the DTCC is backed into a corner and individual investors' loud voices and energy has actually made a difference.
|
||||
|
||||
Edit: I do want to note that I am currently going through the differences between the original 005 document and the current one. So far, a lot of fluff has been removed. I will update this page and potentially, if warranted, will make a separate post of all the important changes and removals the DTCC has performed.
|
||||
|
||||
Edit 2: Grammar and clarification. Look at that, it didn't take 2+ months.
|
||||
|
||||
Edit 3: Excellent interpretation (I share the same sentiment) of 005 made by [u/weeknddev](https://www.reddit.com/u/weeknddev/) - <https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/ncnz1l/where_in_the_world_is_srdtc2021005_we_were_told/?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share>
|
||||
|
||||
Note that rules aren't actually rules unless they are enforced. As I stated above, the context of 005, the additional comments are what matters. The timing of 005 being released, 801/002 being potentially approved on Friday/Monday (this ruling, btw is extremely important), the narrative being set by MSM, the alarms of inflation, RRP being god tier high; the bigger picture is forming right before our eyes.
|
||||
|
||||
Buckle UP! 💎👊🦧🚀🌙
|
@ -0,0 +1,46 @@
|
||||
Big deal: rule 005 prevents pledged securities from being used to complete other transactions (page 30), see relevant excerpts within
|
||||
=====================================================================================================================================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/Bladeace](https://www.reddit.com/user/Bladeace/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/o0rkj7/big_deal_rule_005_prevents_pledged_securities/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
[DD 👨🔬](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22DD%20%F0%9F%91%A8%E2%80%8D%F0%9F%94%AC%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||
TL;DR: Rule 005 has removed the phrase allowing the transfer of securities during a pledge. This stops borrowed shares from being used for some shenanigans. It is a big deal.
|
||||
|
||||
005 is not a minor clarification, despite the document explicitly saying so. They've straight up changed what the rule does. For anyone following the *intent* of the rules, it's no different. For anyone following the *words as they are written*, it's now a completely different rule - pretty much the exact opposite of what it was.
|
||||
|
||||
Take a look at page 36-37 of [the 005 document](https://www.dtcc.com/-/media/Files/Downloads/legal/rule-filings/2021/DTC/SR-DTC-2021-005.pdf):
|
||||
|
||||
[Note that I have cut out the page break](https://preview.redd.it/kcj3hwyehi571.png?width=883&format=png&auto=webp&s=24c131765cf63f983aab67276f65a8289d1d11ca)
|
||||
|
||||
This:
|
||||
|
||||
> will make appropriate entries on its books transferring the securities from the account of such depositor to the account of Pledgee and shall maintain such securities in the account of Pledgee until instructed by Pledgee to release such securities
|
||||
|
||||
Becomes this:
|
||||
|
||||
> will make appropriate entries on its books to indicate the pledge of the securities from such depositor to the Pledgee and shall maintain such securities with a notation that the securities are pledged by the depositor to the Pledgee until instructed by Pledgee to release such securities
|
||||
|
||||
Notice that the clause about transferring the securities is gone? Yeah, that's not a minor clarification. The transfer of shares has been changed to an entry indicating a pledge.
|
||||
|
||||
Before: transfer the security to your account
|
||||
|
||||
After: get a pledge entry on your books
|
||||
|
||||
Given that our focus is on what shenanigans can be performed with the security in question, this is *not* a minor clarification. Now they get a pledge, not a security. For anyone following the rules, no real difference. For anyone abusing the security for shenanigans, now you don't get the security in your account.
|
||||
|
||||
See this excerpt from page 30 of the 005 document:
|
||||
|
||||
> This status systemically prevents the Pledged position from being used to complete other transactions, which is consistent with the Pledgee's Control over the Pledged Securities, as discussed above. Likewise, the release of a Pledged position results in the removal of the notation of the Pledge status of the position and the position would become available to the Pledgor to complete other transactions.
|
||||
|
||||
Notice that the implementation of this rule will be key. It is now the *lender* of the securities that retains the security in their account. Previously, only the borrower was required to engage directly in the market manipulation - the lender just sent their share off without any responsibility for what it ended up doing. Now that the security remains in the lenders account, they can't just send it off to the SHF's to play dirty games with. I'm hopeful that this will make a difference by preventing the abusers from getting any further help in the form of shares lent by parties who are unwilling to directly engage in manipulation but will happily allow others to use their securities for the purpose.
|
||||
|
||||
All of this said, many of the problems that have come to light these past few months relate to the implementation and regulation of the rules rather than the actual rules themselves. I am optimistic that this is a big victory against corruption, but it may prove to be toothless in practice.
|
||||
|
||||
Important note: my incompetence may compromise the quality of any information in this post!
|
||||
|
||||
Edit: see also [this](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/ncnz1l/where_in_the_world_is_srdtc2021005_we_were_told/?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share) post from another user a month ago (as pointed out in the comments, the same points were made there - sorry, I was unaware of this or I would have cited in the initial posting!)
|
@ -0,0 +1,66 @@
|
||||
Elliot Waves and GME, Why Tomorrow Should Be Exciting 🚀
|
||||
========================================================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/possibly6](https://www.reddit.com/user/possibly6/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nw84nw/elliot_waves_and_gme_why_tomorrow_should_be/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
[DD 👨🔬](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22DD%20%F0%9F%91%A8%E2%80%8D%F0%9F%94%AC%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||
Sup Apes,
|
||||
|
||||
not financial advice.
|
||||
|
||||
On a mission to prove (some) TA actually works 🚀
|
||||
|
||||
check out yesterday's prediction: <https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nvh6xr/i_predicted_todays_peak_by_45_my_thoughts_for_the/>
|
||||
|
||||
in my post from yesterday, many of you thought i was shilling by saying I saw 264 coming today. Who's retarded now bitches??? I'm no shill, I just tell you what the chart is saying to me in an unbiased manner. look at the low of after hours today...
|
||||
|
||||
[30m](https://preview.redd.it/rf9utqvhdb471.png?width=2766&format=png&auto=webp&s=e165efd7cccc80764a7c2a54231ee345708e3e23)
|
||||
|
||||
So... now that we know we can accurately use EW to predict movements, i've got some juicy confirmation bias for you. I apologize for my post yesterday not being too enthusiastic, it was only because I had a strong feeling that based off our wave setup that a steepish correction was inevitable. Low and behold, we hit my loading zone from yesterday (visualized above by the purple fib lines).
|
||||
|
||||
Using EW, in the very low chance today was NOT the bottom of our cycle 4, then 238.1 would be our next target. ABC correction targets ideally 50% of the 12345 impulse, tho on a bigger scale we look to have completed our cycle 4, which targets 38.2% of the 123 (im so so so sorry i know this probably makes no sense, but I promise it all checks out and adds up)
|
||||
|
||||
Using this, lets zoom out and see where our cycle 5 should end up, based on the *assumption* that 264 was our cycle 4 completing:
|
||||
|
||||
[specifically look at the white \"waves,\" this is our cycle set (3rd biggest subdivision of waves in EW speak)](https://preview.redd.it/4vs0tr4reb471.png?width=2130&format=png&auto=webp&s=2c0bb2c6e801f7ad1b8a219efb183a7b1daf5228)
|
||||
|
||||
Idk about you all, but I'm waking up as early as I can and abusing the buy button on my brokerage. this dip won't last long, take advantage of it!
|
||||
|
||||
So lets talk upside price targets now. given that wave 5 targets a 1:1 of wave 1, we can conclude that we should hit AT THE VERY MINIMUM 368 before seeing a strong (ish) correction. Keep in mind, if we crush that target, then we can re assess (granted I'll need to chart out the intermediate waves within the cycle for more precise targets, I'm just too lazy and giving you a basic outlook for the rest of the week.
|
||||
|
||||
For your convenience, should we absolutely crush the 368 targets, watch the levels below for a rejection and show us how strong your diamond hands really are!
|
||||
|
||||
[possible cycle 5 targets should we exceed 1:1 extension ratio](https://preview.redd.it/9ccn44j9fb471.png?width=556&format=png&auto=webp&s=c5ee1dfb0294be41d1494bf10e726b972352c0d2)
|
||||
|
||||
first of all, don't you fucking dare day trade. With this roadmap I hope you have a better idea of what to expect going into tomorrow and the rest of this week. I'm ecstatic.
|
||||
|
||||
For fun, lets zoom out and see for the hell of it what my bigger targets are, for the super cycle and grand super cycle:
|
||||
|
||||
[hehe](https://preview.redd.it/lg944b4qfb471.png?width=2636&format=png&auto=webp&s=320f403b87ff115f72a15b023a657dd871505c3d)
|
||||
|
||||
and keep in mind, this isn't even the squeeze. This is just the calm before storm.
|
||||
|
||||
TLDR: BUY DIP. VERY LIKELY 264 was bottom of cycle 4, meaning in ape speak, now we go UP to at least 368.68 in the next few days. if by the off chance that 264 was not the bottom, expect around 238, but no lower (should literally be impossible using EW) than 219. CHEEEEEEEERS!
|
||||
|
||||
buckle up ;)
|
||||
|
||||
edit: I see some people saying my "predictions" aren't valid because I lay out a few different scenarios. In the market, it's not so much about being 100% certain of an outcome, rather be certain of the possible outcomes and act accordingly. This is why I give all the possible scenarios.
|
||||
|
||||
edit 2: today feels eerily similar to the day after march earnings where shorts tried desperately to push price down, we all know what happened the next day...
|
||||
|
||||
edit 3: possibly (6) final update for today, looking to have bounced at the 264 level as outlined, I should have mentioned this target in the DD, though it was mentioned in the comments somewhere with another EW ape. keep an eye on 256 as well.
|
||||
|
||||
edit 4: lol just for fun, take a look at $IWM, its laughable how desperate they are at this point
|
||||
|
||||
edit 5: I set buy orders at 264 and 257, went to the gym and saw we were around 245 and got super excited. Thanks ken, threw the rest of my checking account in and set a buy order at 238 and was super happy to see it filled. The fact that we keep dipping slightly below the 238 level tells me SHF are hunting stop losses, but the fact that they aren't pushing it much farther tells me they're running outta ammo. I really hope you all took advantage of today's fire sale, i got a feeling tomorrow will be like march 25th 🚀
|
||||
|
||||
edit 6: nooooo hahaha we broke below 219. Lower your pitchforks please lol, I'll draft a new theory tonight. All this means is that i have to redraw my cycle wave set, as we broke the rules of EW today. Just means juicier upside targets, cause this would technically be a cycle "2." Imma need to really wrinkle my brain to redraft this, thanks for putting your faith in my abilities nonetheless :) For what its worth the next bounce candidate i had on watch was 213
|
||||
|
||||
edit 7: holy fuck I'm so jacked, wait till you see my new dd... todays price action confirms something huge!!!!! 213 is THE BOTTOM!!!!!
|
||||
|
||||
edit 8: lol i love y'all so much i went and gave targets on gangnam style for a few minutes when reddit was down, you found my youtube channel if you were there ;)
|
@ -0,0 +1,62 @@
|
||||
Riding Elliot Waves to the Moon, Why GME from a Technical Standpoint Alone is Better Than Gold 🚀
|
||||
=================================================================================================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/possibly6](https://www.reddit.com/user/possibly6/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nyhr3m/riding_elliot_waves_to_the_moon_why_gme_from_a/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
[DD 👨🔬](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22DD%20%F0%9F%91%A8%E2%80%8D%F0%9F%94%AC%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||
Sup apes, Elliot Waves guy here.
|
||||
|
||||
I wanted to write this post because for one, my last post blew up way more than I ever expected, so I have a lot of new readers now. If you missed my previous post, you can check it out here (seriously, I can't thank this community enough for all your love and support) <https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nwyj77/elliot_waves_and_gme_why_im_jacked_to_infinity/>
|
||||
|
||||
This post isn't gonna be going over technical levels as much, rather a general overview of why I believe the stock price is about to take off from a technical perspective only, and how it all ties into the bigger picture. I also noticed on my last post, there was an issue with the images loading when I added them directly to the post, so from now on I'll just be linking everything via [imgur.com](https://imgur.com/)
|
||||
|
||||
I had to make a small edit in my recent post as I didn't analyze the proper fib ratio when saying 213 appeared to be the bottom. In EW theory, wave 2 typically retraces 61.8% of wave 1, though the 61.8% level I used in that analysis was actually from the start of a 5 wave impulse within the cycle, not the actual cycle. I have circled the proper fib ratios for the apparent Cycle 1 and 2 that appear to have completed:
|
||||
|
||||
<https://imgur.com/r9UEkkr>
|
||||
|
||||
Hopefully you caught my edit in my recent post, but if you didn't, this puts our bottom of cycle 2 at 201. We did not hit this level to the T, though given the nature of the rebound from the lows yesterday, I'm inclined to say that we will not see us hit 201... though if we do, expect a bounce:
|
||||
|
||||
<https://imgur.com/3CVBUu5>
|
||||
|
||||
Wave 3 is often the longest and strongest of the 5 wave impulse, but what I want you to note that is specifically interesting about this specific situation with GME, we are in a 3 within a 3 within a 3, just starting the Cycle 3 (the order is grand super cycle, super cycle, cycle, primary, intermediate, and so on)
|
||||
|
||||
In the image I'm about to link, do note just because a price target based on the line I drew is on a certain date, do not bank on anything happening by said date. This is solely for visualization purposes. For reference our cycle 1 took over 2 months to pan out, though this can be attributed to many outside factors causing us to trade sideways for a considerable amount of time (circled, March 24 to June 8). Grand super cycle is illustrated in blue, super cycle in yellow, and cycle in white:
|
||||
|
||||
<https://imgur.com/PJfbmCL>
|
||||
|
||||
Just for reference: I'm gonna link a car/truck company and a company that does electricity generally (boomer stocks are great examples of EW in action, also automod doesn't let me use other tickers lol) note how wave 3 is the strongest for both:
|
||||
|
||||
Cars and trucks that starts with eff: <https://imgur.com/yG6itXH>
|
||||
|
||||
Electricity, generally : <https://imgur.com/FLfk2Xy>
|
||||
|
||||
Granted, these were not a 3 within a 3 within a 3, but even from a visual standpoint on boring ass stocks, you can see Elliot Wave theory come to fruition.
|
||||
|
||||
As for GME short term, I can't quite give short term upside targets yet, as I am yet to see a primary 1 and 2 complete. To verify this action, I'm looking for a strong ish move to the upside followed by a 50%-61.8% correction of that move.
|
||||
|
||||
This is THE time to really be loading up, to be honest, from an EW standpoint, this is about as good a setup you can dream of, the risk/reward from a technical standpoint is worth drooling over, and this isn't even factoring in a short squeeze.
|
||||
|
||||
Do note, when the rocket really kicks off, and I mean well above 5 figures, this is when I'll have to take out my big crayon and draw that whole movement set as a 1, if that makes sense. Worrying about that later haha, for now all i know is buy, hodl, buy some more, okay maybe some more, and hodl for 8 figures or more.
|
||||
|
||||
Will try to post every day of the trading week by popular demand, in the event my account gets attacked (as has happened to previous well known DD creators in the past), check out my twitter: <https://twitter.com/gavinmayreal> Much easier to do small updates on their as well 🚀
|
||||
|
||||
I just started posting my analysis on twitter, disregard the follower count hahaha I used to be a youtuber back in the day, sort of retired cause I don't really like where it's gone, but if people would like I can start posting genuine tutorials on my Youtube.
|
||||
|
||||
GME? bullish af. Shorts? fuk. Tits? Jacked.
|
||||
|
||||
My Cycle 3 targets are as follows: <https://imgur.com/g80KXrX>
|
||||
|
||||
Please remember, these are CYCLE 3 targets, not intermediate or primary, meaning don't be upset if we dont break 500 this week... It is inevitable that we will in due time, and the ball is really about to start rolling. Can it just be Monday already?
|
||||
|
||||
also note, quad witching comes up this Friday:
|
||||
|
||||
<https://preview.redd.it/mkvwok0vpw471.png?width=859&format=png&auto=webp&s=86bdbd4d9c9f50b398d683185efd316542da47c6>
|
||||
|
||||
TLDR: GME is at the bottom of a cycle 3, within a super cycle 3, within a grand super cycle 3. this is the most bullish EW trading setup possible, and EW traders dream of finding this setup. These low prices won't last 🚀 Hopefully Automod doesn't block it this time 🤞
|
||||
|
||||
Edit: lol super random, I bought assassins creed Valhalla from my local GameStop recently, if you know, what are the best weapons? 🤣
|
76
Technical-Analysis/OBV/2021-06-16-The-OBV-does-not-Lie.md
Normal file
76
Technical-Analysis/OBV/2021-06-16-The-OBV-does-not-Lie.md
Normal file
@ -0,0 +1,76 @@
|
||||
The OBV does not lie. The price is WRONG!💎🙌HODL!🚀
|
||||
====================================================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/_Badtothebone_](https://www.reddit.com/user/_Badtothebone_/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/o120xs/the_obv_does_not_lie_the_price_is_wronghodl/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
[DD 👨🔬](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22DD%20%F0%9F%91%A8%E2%80%8D%F0%9F%94%AC%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||
Hello Apes, Bones here, im going to explain what exactly the OBV is, what it does and how it pertains to GME.🚀
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/ynaviphkfj571.jpg?width=828&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=5d49c34c2259e89c511765963a43ba39c16dfe8a)
|
||||
|
||||
So what is the OBV? Well OBV stands for "On Balance Volume"
|
||||
|
||||
-On Balance Volume (OBV) measures buying and selling pressure as a cumulative indicator that adds volume on up days and subtracts volume on down days.
|
||||
|
||||
⚠️The actual value of the OBV is unimportant; concentrate on its direction.⚠️
|
||||
|
||||
- When both price and OBV are making higher peaks and higher troughs, the upward trend is likely to continue.
|
||||
|
||||
- When both price and OBV are making lower peaks and lower troughs, the downward trend is likely to continue.
|
||||
|
||||
- During a trading range, if the OBV is rising, accumulation may be taking place---a warning of an upward breakout.
|
||||
|
||||
- During a trading range, if the OBV is falling, distribution may be taking place---a warning of a downward breakout.
|
||||
|
||||
- When price continues to make higher peaks and OBV fails to make higher peaks, the upward trend is likely to stall or fail. This is called a negative divergence.
|
||||
|
||||
- When price continues to make lower troughs and OBV fails to make lower troughs, the downward trend is likely to stall or fail. This is called a positive divergence.
|
||||
|
||||
<https://www.fidelity.com/learning-center/trading-investing/technical-analysis/technical-indicator-guide/OBV>
|
||||
|
||||
Now that you have a brief idea of what OBV stands for and how its used in technical analysis i will present how to use it as an indicator for GME price action.
|
||||
|
||||
So if you look at the (180/1 day) chart for GME you will see that the price of GME is going down (at the moment).... BUT, the OBV is staying flat and actually continuing its upward pattern ever so slightly.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/zbht8slsfj571.jpg?width=828&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=1a1c7e620a3adb137dfabcc783643d6865a8148b)
|
||||
|
||||
(GME OBV 180 day chart)
|
||||
|
||||
"But why would the price go down if the OBV is going up or staying flat?"
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/0pvmjydwfj571.jpg?width=828&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=764c994674f835ade9d1777e19904ea12fc91ca4)
|
||||
|
||||
Vlad the stock impaler
|
||||
|
||||
Thats because there is actually buying pressure outweighing the selling pressure or coming damn near close to being even!
|
||||
|
||||
-There are many great DDs out there explaining how hedgies use ETFs to short gamestop. In my opinion I believe the OBV is indicating that YOU, the Diamond Handed Apes are HODLING your shares and buying more that the OBV is staying up do to holding and buying pressure, and it proves that the price is indeed WRONG!
|
||||
|
||||
Hedgies are shorting gamestop through ETFs/ Dark Pools to artificially deflate the price, this keeps the price of GME down temporarily until they stop, once they stop shorting ETFs, GME begins uptrending because of buying pressure. There are no more shares available to short Gamestop (GME), so they resort to shorting ETFs that contain GME like XRT which is a big one. this does not effect the volume on GME because the hedgies are shorting ETFs, not GME directly, therefore the price of GME deflates but the OBV is showing otherwise. This is only a temporary fix for the hedgies. They are FUK either way.
|
||||
|
||||
This leads me to believe the price is 100% WRONG! Hedgies are trying to get Apes to paper hand and sell. And Apes are proving that it takes nothing to HOLD, and costs them everything to kick the can down the road.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/zzfhrcrfgj571.jpg?width=828&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=db00d05ef9ca1f0c9f5646f555c37952620a0c32)
|
||||
|
||||
Listen here hedgies, you cant kick the can down the road forever, DIAMOND HANDS got you beat. It costs nothing to hodl these shares to the moon and it will cost you everything to try and make apes paper hand.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/vubzln7hgj571.jpg?width=828&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=79588bf1c9fec000bc91e92663b4146a0eb6e10f)
|
||||
|
||||
Diamond Hands (APES OWN THE FLOAT....and then some)
|
||||
|
||||
📈As for me, I like the stock📈
|
||||
|
||||
🐻Hedies R Fuk🐻
|
||||
|
||||
🚀🦍See you on the moon Apes 🦍 🚀
|
||||
|
||||
-Boner out✌️
|
||||
|
||||
(If i missed something or if anyone has info to add please leave it in the comments or DM me and i can add it)
|
||||
|
||||
❌Obligatory: *not financial advise*❌
|
63
Timeline/Project-Providence.md
Normal file
63
Timeline/Project-Providence.md
Normal file
@ -0,0 +1,63 @@
|
||||
# Table of Contents
|
||||
|
||||
| Date | Event | Author | Author |
|
||||
| :-------------:| :-------------: |:-------------:|:-------------:|
|
||||
| 2019-08-16 | Scion Asset Managmement sends Letter to Gamestop Board | [businesswire.com](https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20190819005633/en/Scion-Asset-Management-Urges-GameStop-Buy-238?mod=article_inline) | [Jon Hallam](info@scionasset.com) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
# Overview
|
||||
|
||||
## GameStop
|
||||
[GameStop](https://news.gamestop.com/about-gamestop) is a Fortune 500 company and is the largest video game retailer worldwide, offering video games, consoles, accessories, and other consumer electronics in over 4,000 stores internationally. GameStop's family of brands include GameStop, EB Games, Micromania, ThinkGeek, and Game Informer® magazine.
|
||||
|
||||
### July 31st, 2019
|
||||
Bloomberg reports GameStop short interest percentage at 63%.
|
||||
|
||||
### August 2019
|
||||
In late 2019, Michael Burry and his private investment firm, Scion Asset Management, sent a letter to the GameStop Board of Directors urging them to repurchase nearly $238 million dollars worth of shares.
|
||||
|
||||
> **Michael Burry's Letter to the GameStop Board**
|
||||
>
|
||||
> August 16, 2019
|
||||
>
|
||||
> Dear Members of the Board,
|
||||
>
|
||||
> Scion Asset Management, LLC and its affiliates (“Scion”) own approximately 2,750,000 shares, or about 3.05%, of GameStop, Inc. (“GameStop”) common stock.
|
||||
>
|
||||
> As mentioned in our previous letter to the board, we have concerns regarding capital management at GameStop. Given recent GameStop common stock prices under $4 per share, we must re-state that GameStop complete the remaining $237,600,000 share repurchase at once and with urgency.
|
||||
>
|
||||
> Given the market capitalization of GameStop at $290 million at the close on August 15th, completing the authorization would retire over 80% of GameStop’s outstanding shares. Depending on the timing and quality of execution, such a repurchase would increase earnings per share dramatically - far more than any other possible action on a per share basis.
|
||||
>
|
||||
> The numbers are striking and demand action. We estimate that GameStop now has in excess of $480 million of cash, more than enough to complete the share repurchase authorization and still invest in the business and pay down debt.
|
||||
>
|
||||
> Through August 15th, a total of 11 trading days, 50,399,534 shares have traded. At this rate, for the month of August and for the third month in a row, the number of shares traded will exceed the total number of shares outstanding. Because of such high volume, we maintain that GameStop could pull off perhaps the most consequential and shareholder-friendly buyback in stock market history with elegance and stealth.
|
||||
>
|
||||
> Shareholders staring at all-time lows in GameStop stock see little evidence that GameStop has effectively leveraged its elite position in the gaming universe as the new paradigm came into clear view over the last five years.
|
||||
>
|
||||
> The unfortunate reality is that Amazon, not GameStop, bought Twitch in 2014. Instead, in 2014, GameStop started buying wireless store assets. And in 2017, Amazon, not GameStop, bought GameSparks - while less than a year ago GameStop reversed course and sold its wireless store assets. Shareholders are right to worry.
|
||||
>
|
||||
> We expect GameStop’s business will perk up a bit during 2020 and 2021 as the new console cycle, with associated software updates and introductions, finally gets underway. But what is happening now in the stock is about more than late cycle doldrums or even the streaming paradigm – shareholders do not have faith in current management, and have not been inspired by new leadership policies.
|
||||
>
|
||||
> Notably, as of July 31st, 2019, Bloomberg reports short interest in GameStop stock at 57,226,706 shares – this is about 63% of the 90,268,940 outstanding GameStop shares at last report.
|
||||
>
|
||||
> We submit that when share prices are at or near all-time lows and more than 60% of the shares are shorted despite cash levels much higher than the current market capitalization, lack of faith in management’s capital allocation is the default conclusion.
|
||||
>
|
||||
> All of this creates the opportunity to enter 2020 with a dramatically reduced share count along with multi-fold greater impact per share for every single other achievement of management. Consider as just one example that if the turnaround is successful, and if GameStop were able to shrink its shares outstanding to 30 million through the share repurchase, the $157 million dividend that was just eliminated would pay out around $5.25 per share.
|
||||
>
|
||||
> The Board deemed up to $6.00 per share a good price for a buyback less than two months ago, and the price of the stock today is nearly half that amount.
|
||||
>
|
||||
> We again advise the Board to represent shareholders well, and to ensure the execution of the remaining repurchase authorization in full.
|
||||
>
|
||||
> Sincerely,
|
||||
>
|
||||
> Dr. Michael J. Burry
|
||||
|
||||
[April 1st, SR-DTC-2021-005 announced for review](https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/comments/mi3xdt/dtcc_new_proposed_rule_change_dtc2021005/) - The nuclear option ("MAD"). Would blow up GME shorts and also everyone else in the market running similar scams.
|
||||
|
||||
[April 8th, SR-NSCC-2021-802 announced for review, comments, etc.](https://www.dtcc.com/-/media/Files/Downloads/legal/rule-filings/2021/NSCC/SR-NSCC-2021-802.pdf) - A tactical nuke revealed. By removing the ability to leverage crypto markets *simultaneously for revenue and collateral reqs*, the short position will be unsustainable.
|
||||
|
||||
[April 12th, SR-DTC-2021-005 PULLED (INDEFINITELY) FOR "REFORMATTING"](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/mpmcyz/good_news_update_on_dtc2021005_according_to_john/) - With the tactical nuke in place, no need to keep full-scale Armageddon on the table, right?
|
||||
|
||||
[May 4th, SR-NSCC-2021-802 takes effect](https://www.dtcc.com/-/media/Files/Downloads/legal/rule-filings/2021/NSCC/SR-NSCC-2021-802-Approval-Notice.pdf) - Tactical nuke detonation.
|
||||
|
||||
[May 5th+ Overnight repos explode](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/RRPONTSYD#). Many DDs suggest the ON RRP is "a liquidity problem framed as a collateral problem". It's both because the tactical nuke hit both.
|
Reference in New Issue
Block a user