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00-Getting-Started/2021-07-18-Small-Recap-of-GME.md
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00-Getting-Started/2021-07-18-Small-Recap-of-GME.md
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||||
A small recap of GME - Shorts are fucked
|
||||
========================================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/PowerRaptor](https://www.reddit.com/user/PowerRaptor/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/omk4ch/a_small_recap_of_gme_shorts_are_fucked/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
[HODL 💎🙌](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22HODL%20%F0%9F%92%8E%F0%9F%99%8C%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||
*The list below is how I understand the events of GME based on the DD I've read across all investment subreddits, but especially this one. Correct me if I get any parts wrong, and I'll edit*
|
||||
|
||||
* * * * *
|
||||
|
||||
* * * * *
|
||||
|
||||
The Recap:
|
||||
|
||||
1) Hedge funds colluded with market makers to short GME over 140% and likely over 200%
|
||||
|
||||
* * * * *
|
||||
|
||||
2) Hedge funds have not closed these shorts, but only hidden them in options chains, so they don't need to be reported, and have since moved on to short the stock through ETFs and other mechanics.
|
||||
|
||||
(Short the ETF and buy every share in it except for GME, to effectively just short GME EDIT: *or as *[u/dubaicurious](https://www.reddit.com/u/dubaicurious/)* explains, borrow ETFs, break them down into individual shares, and sell the GME*) This is not reportable as a GME short, hiding the true SI%.
|
||||
|
||||
This Friday, 430K (43 million shares) Deep OTM Puts expired, which were previously used to hide 43 million short shares. With this expiry, the shorts should show back up on hedge funds' books and require margin coverage, unless they deliver all of them through other mechanisms.
|
||||
|
||||
* * * * *
|
||||
|
||||
3) Lawsuits allege over 200% SI in january (at 100m shares), which was at the time well above the legal limit of 140% (source needed). This corresponds to what users in this subreddit can support using options data from January (Deep ITM calls and deep OTM puts at the same strike price)
|
||||
|
||||
* * * * *
|
||||
|
||||
4) Buy orders vastly outnumber sell orders, some days over 7:1 ratio, and apes know short hedge funds *must* buy back GME shares to close their debt. Similarly, since the price stays stable or even drops, the logical explanation is that hedge funds continue to naked short GME to avoid the price exploding upwards.
|
||||
|
||||
* * * * *
|
||||
|
||||
5) GME has not yet announced a dividend, but has revealed in their market offering prospectus that they may give a non-cash dividend. This could make it very hard for the DTC to distribute said dividend, at which point Gamestop may move their shares out of the DTC. This could trigger a short squeeze.
|
||||
|
||||
- Similarly, as hedge funds keep shorting GME, if there's a financial crash, their collateral used as margin to allow their short position may drop significantly in value, and it may no longer cover their margin requirements - this could trigger a short squeeze.
|
||||
|
||||
- Third, new regulations may make it tougher to hide shorts through obscure mechanisms, and put a more realistic or accurate number on their books, which would increase their margin requirements drastically - this could trigger a short squeeze.
|
||||
|
||||
- If the price drops significantly (say to $50 or less), Gamestop could announce a share buyback, and use some of their cash they got from the ATM share offerings to buy back more shares than they sold - this would reduce the free tradable float and spike the relative SI%. Similarly, the buy pressure from retail would increase drastically - this could trigger a short squeeze.
|
||||
|
||||
- If hedge funds keep selling naked shorts, eventually the SI%, hidden or not, will be so high that they will fail any factual liquidity check. Similarly even a cash dividend, they'd be required to pay out many times over, which would eat into their liquidity. This could trigger a short squeeze.
|
||||
|
||||
- As Ryan Cohen keeps developing Gamestop into the business it deserves to be - an online powerhouse poised to compete with Amazon, the straight up fundamental value of the stock will so obviously be above what it's currently trading at, that buy pressure increases drastically, on a global scale. This could trigger a short squeeze.
|
||||
|
||||
* * * * *
|
||||
|
||||
TL;DR
|
||||
|
||||
*So long as people refuse to sell their shares, shorts cannot avoid any of these risks, and cannot close their debt. They have a foot in the beartrap and there's hungry wildlife around.*
|
||||
|
||||
Shorts are super duper fucked
|
||||
|
||||
* * * * *
|
||||
|
||||
Did I get this right?
|
||||
|
||||
*this is not financial advice*
|
@ -0,0 +1,26 @@
|
||||
Wealth Management DD Compilation
|
||||
================================
|
||||
|
||||
[𝗥𝗲𝘀𝗼𝘂𝗿𝗰𝗲](https://www.reddit.com/r/DDintoGME/search?q=flair_name%3A%22%F0%9D%97%A5%F0%9D%97%B2%F0%9D%98%80%F0%9D%97%BC%F0%9D%98%82%F0%9D%97%BF%F0%9D%97%B0%F0%9D%97%B2%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||
1\. Overview and TLDR
|
||||
|
||||
I have been compiling, organizing, and archiving important and relevant GME content on [Github](https://github.com/verymeticulous/wikAPEdia#readme) since early 2021.
|
||||
|
||||
Below is a list of due diligence on how to manage yourself and your tendies before, during, and post-MOASS.
|
||||
|
||||
2\. Resources
|
||||
|
||||
If I am missing any useful wealth-management posts, please share them!
|
||||
|
||||
| Name | Description | Author |
|
||||
| --- | --- | --- |
|
||||
| [MOASS Preparation Guide](https://github.com/verymeticulous/wikAPEdia/tree/main/01-Must-Read/MOASS-Preparation-Guide-by-socrates6210) | In-depth guide on steps to take pre-liftoff, during MOASS, and what to do in the aftermath. | [u/socrates6210](https://www.reddit.com/u/socrates6210/) |
|
||||
| [Tax Cheat Sheet](https://github.com/verymeticulous/wikAPEdia/tree/main/Managing-Wealth/Tax-Cheat-Sheet-series-by-areallygoodsandwhich) Series | Tax advice on Income, Deductions, IRAs, and CPAs. | [u/areallygoodsandwhich](https://www.reddit.com/u/areallygoodsandwhich/) |
|
||||
| [Financial Tips for the Suddenly Wealthy](https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/comments/m6lyid/financial_tips_for_the_suddenly_wealthy/) | Useful tips for Taxes, Insurance, Legal Advice, Investing, etc. | [u/Minako_mama](https://www.reddit.com/u/Minako_mama/) |
|
||||
| [How to Keep Your Newly Minted Title of Millionaire](https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/comments/manjyo/how_to_keep_your_newly_minted_title_of/) | Guide to protecting yourself and your wealth. | [u/Exact-Introduction-5](https://www.reddit.com/u/Exact-Introduction-5/) |
|
||||
| [What to do with your Tendies - From a Financial Advisor](https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/comments/mefwc7/what_to_do_with_your_tendies_from_a_financial/) | Advice on taxes, savings, paying off debt, and long-term investing. | [u/docpapas](https://www.reddit.com/u/docpapas/) |
|
||||
| [Guide/Checklist to Getting your Legal Affairs in Order](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/mtwxuo/checklist_a_quick_and_dirty_guide_to_getting_your/) | Checklist to ensure your wealth is handled appropriately. | [u/rddtf](https://www.reddit.com/u/rddtf/) |
|
||||
| [MOASS Checklist](https://github.com/verymeticulous/wikAPEdia/tree/main/Managing-Wealth/MOASS-Checklist-by-2008UniGrad) | Step-by-step guide for pre, during, and post-MOASS. | [u/2008UniGrad](https://www.reddit.com/u/2008UniGrad/) |
|
||||
|
||||
*Check out the* [Managing-Wealth](https://github.com/verymeticulous/wikAPEdia/tree/main/Managing-Wealth) *section on* [wikAPEdia](https://github.com/verymeticulous/wikAPEdia) *for more DD!*
|
@ -0,0 +1,62 @@
|
||||
Deep Fucking Due Diligence - Compilation of Serious/Must Read DD
|
||||
================================================================
|
||||
|
||||
[DD 👨🔬](https://www.reddit.com/r/GMEJungle/search?q=flair_name%3A%22DD%20%F0%9F%91%A8%E2%80%8D%F0%9F%94%AC%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||
| Last Updated | July 21, 2021 |
|
||||
| --- | --- |
|
||||
|
||||
0\. TLDR
|
||||
|
||||
I have been compiling, organizing, and archiving relevant GME content on [Github](https://github.com/verymeticulous/wikAPEdia#readme) since early 2021. Below is a list of some of the most important due diligence created by apes with many more wrinkles than I.
|
||||
|
||||
For new and curious apes that stumble upon wikAPEdia, I encourage you to read the content from the source site. This resource would not have been able to be created if it weren't for the many intelligent apes who have worked tirelessly to create their posts and deserve your upvote!
|
||||
|
||||
1\. Overview
|
||||
|
||||
I realize that the table below does not entail all serious or important DD. If there's content that you think should be added, please let me know.
|
||||
|
||||
2\. Resources
|
||||
|
||||
| Published Date | Title | Author |
|
||||
| --- | --- | --- |
|
||||
| 2020-07-27 | [100%+ Short Interest in GameStop stock (GME) - Fundamental & Technical Deep Value Analysis](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GZTr1-Gp74U&t=1s) | [u/DeepFuckingValue](https://www.reddit.com/u/DeepFuckingValue/) |
|
||||
| 2021-03-13 | [Citadel Has No Clothes](https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/comments/m4c0p4/citadel_has_no_clothes/) | [u/atobitt](https://www.reddit.com/u/atobitt/) |
|
||||
| 2021-03-30 | [The EVERYTHING Short](https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/comments/mgucv2/the_everything_short/) | [u/atobitt](https://www.reddit.com/u/atobitt/) |
|
||||
| 2021-03-30 | [Naked Shorting Scam](https://github.com/verymeticulous/wikAPEdia/tree/main/01-Must-Read/The-Naked-Shorting-Scam-by-broccaaa) Series | [u/broccaaa](https://www.reddit.com/u/broccaaa/) |
|
||||
| 2021-04-05 | [Why We Are Trading Sideways](https://github.com/verymeticulous/wikAPEdia/tree/main/01-Must-Read/Why-We-Are-Still-Trading-Sideways-by-c-digs) Series | [u/c-digs](https://www.reddit.com/u/c-digs/) |
|
||||
| 2021-04-06 | [Walkin' Like a Duck Talkin' Like a Duck](https://github.com/verymeticulous/wikAPEdia/tree/main/01-Must-Read/Walking-Like-a-Duck-Talking-Like-a-Duck-by-atobitt) | [u/atobitt](https://www.reddit.com/u/atobitt/) |
|
||||
| 2021-04-11 | [Chaos Theory](https://github.com/verymeticulous/wikAPEdia/tree/main/01-Must-Read/Chaos-Theory-by-sharkbaitlol) Series | [u/sharkbaitlol](https://www.reddit.com/u/sharkbaitlol/) |
|
||||
| 2021-04-21 | [House of Cards](https://github.com/verymeticulous/wikAPEdia/tree/main/01-Must-Read/House-of-Cards-by-atobitt) Series | [u/atobitt](https://www.reddit.com/u/atobitt/) |
|
||||
| 2021-04-22 | [Go / No Launch Checklist](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nhh0f1/update_go_nogo_for_launch_the_checklist_keeping/) | [u/nothingbuttherainsir](https://www.reddit.com/u/nothingbuttherainsir/) |
|
||||
| 2021-05-01 | [Ultimate DD Guide to the Moon](https://github.com/verymeticulous/wikAPEdia/tree/main/DD/The-Ultimate-DD-Guide-to-the-Moon-by-sydneyfriendlycub) Series | [u/sydneyfriendlycub](https://www.reddit.com/u/sydneyfriendlycub/) |
|
||||
| 2021-05-07 | [Danger Zone](https://github.com/verymeticulous/wikAPEdia/tree/main/01-Must-Read/Danger-Zone-by-Criand) Series | [u/Criand](https://www.reddit.com/u/Criand/) |
|
||||
| 2021-05-09 | [Compilation of Market Manipulation Tactics](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/n8mizw/here_is_a_complete_compilation_documenting_the/) | [u/Golden_D9](https://www.reddit.com/u/Golden_D9/) |
|
||||
| 2021-05-23 | [We're All Fucked](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nj1guf/were_all_fucked/) | [u/CoffeeLaxative](https://www.reddit.com/u/CoffeeLaxative/) |
|
||||
| 2021-05-24 | [GME Masters' Guide](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/njwv6n/the_gme_masters_guide_a_dd_campaign_for_apes/) | [u/Blanderson_Snooper](https://www.reddit.com/u/Blanderson_Snooper/) |
|
||||
| 2021-06-05 | [Definitive Guide about Naked Shorting](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nt0ojl/everything_superstonk_knows_about_naked_shorting/) | [u/sharkbaitlol](https://www.reddit.com/u/sharkbaitlol/) |
|
||||
| 2021-06-05 | [Where are the Shares](https://github.com/verymeticulous/wikAPEdia/tree/main/01-Must-Read/Where-Are-the-Shares-by-leavemeanon) Series | [u/leavemeanon](https://www.reddit.com/u/leavemeanon/) |
|
||||
| 2021-06-07 | [Hank's Big Bang: Quant Apes Glitch the Simulation](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nu9qq9/hanks_big_bang_quant_apes_glitch_the_simulation/) | [u/HomeDepotHank69](https://www.reddit.com/u/HomeDepotHank69/) |
|
||||
| 2021-06-10 | [GME MOASS Thesis Summary 2.0](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nwqaj0/gme_moass_thesis_summary_20_summarization_of_the/) | [u/HCMF_MaceFace](https://www.reddit.com/u/HCMF_MaceFace/) |
|
||||
| 2021-06-15 | [The Bigger Short](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/o0scoy/the_bigger_short_how_2008_is_repeating_at_a_much/) | [u/Criand](https://www.reddit.com/u/Criand/) |
|
||||
| 2021-06-15 | [In Death by 1000 Cuts, SHF Just Received their 999 Cut](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/o0mn0y/in_death_by_1000_cuts_shf_just_received_their_999/) | [u/No1Important_4real](https://www.reddit.com/u/No1Important_4real/) |
|
||||
| 2021-06-18 | [The Sun Never Sets on Citadel](https://github.com/verymeticulous/wikAPEdia/tree/main/01-Must-Read/Sun-Never-Sets-on-Citadel-by-swede-child-of-mine) Series | [u/swede_child_of_mine](https://www.reddit.com/u/swede_child_of_mine/) |
|
||||
| 2021-06-21 | [Fed is Pinned into a Corner from 2008 Can-Kicking](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/o4rfnu/the_fed_is_pinned_into_a_corner_from_the_2008/) | [u/Criand](https://www.reddit.com/u/Criand/) |
|
||||
| 2021-06-22 | [The Long Con](https://pdfhost.io/v/O.YHbvSRP_TLC_THE_LONG_CON_The_markets_are_frothing_with_liquiditypdf.pdf) | [u/Con101smd](https://www.reddit.com/u/Con101smd/) |
|
||||
| 2021-06-22 | [Through the Looking Glass](https://pdfhost.io/v/KhuW5HZ~N_THROUGH_THE_LOOKING_GLASS.pdf) | [u/Con101smd](https://www.reddit.com/u/Con101smd/) |
|
||||
| 2021-06-22 | [Updated TLDR of Regulations](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/o5mhie/tldr_regulations_edition_updated_20210622_to/) | [u/stevetheimpact](https://www.reddit.com/u/stevetheimpact/) inspired by [u/MATTATI2OO5](https://www.reddit.com/u/MATTATI2OO5/) |
|
||||
| 2021-07-02 | [More Evidence Pointing to the use Deep ITM CALLs and Deep OTM PUTs to hide SI](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/oc4f79/well_there_it_is_more_mathevidence_pointing_to/) | [u/Criand](https://www.reddit.com/u/Criand/) |
|
||||
| 2021-07-14 | [A Castle of Glass](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/ok2e0b/a_castle_of_glass_game_on_anon/) | [u/3for100Specials](https://www.reddit.com/u/3for100Specials/) |
|
||||
| 2021-07-19 | [OTM PUTs are Passed Puck of Short Positions & Price Movements are around Monthly Options](https://www.reddit.com/r/DDintoGME/comments/on9fnx/otm_puts_are_the_passed_puck_of_short_positions/) | [u/Criand](https://www.reddit.com/u/Criand/) |
|
||||
|
||||
*For more important DD and other relevant GME content, check out* [wikAPEdia](https://github.com/verymeticulous/wikAPEdia#readme)*!*
|
||||
|
||||
Disclaimer: I am not a financial advisor, nor is this financial advise. I'm just an ape who has OCD and likes to organize things.
|
||||
|
||||
Edit 1: Added [u/sydneyfriendlycub](https://www.reddit.com/u/sydneyfriendlycub/)'s ultimate DD Guide to the Moon series
|
||||
|
||||
Edit 2: Removed outdated/defunct due diligence
|
||||
|
||||
Edit 3: Added [u/Criand](https://www.reddit.com/u/Criand/)'s More Math/Evidence that SHFs are hiding SI post
|
||||
|
||||
Edit 4: Updated [u/HCMF_MaceFace](https://www.reddit.com/u/HCMF_MaceFace/)'s GME MOASS Thesis Summary to the latest version
|
@ -0,0 +1,59 @@
|
||||
Deep Fucking Resources - Compilation of Tools, Websites, and other Information
|
||||
==============================================================================
|
||||
|
||||
[Resource 🔬](https://www.reddit.com/r/GMEJungle/search?q=flair_name%3A%22Resource%20%F0%9F%94%AC%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||
| Last Updated | July 21, 2021 |
|
||||
| --- | --- |
|
||||
|
||||
0\. Preface
|
||||
|
||||
This is a follow up to [u/Truffluscious](https://www.reddit.com/u/Truffluscious/)'s resources page.
|
||||
|
||||
Disclaimer: This is not financial advise, nor am I a financial advisor. I just have OCD and like to organize things.
|
||||
|
||||
1\. Overview
|
||||
|
||||
Since January, I have been saving, bookmarking, and archiving important GME content and relevant information on [Github](https://github.com/verymeticulous/wikAPEdia#readme) to both organize what I've learned and read, and create a backup in case the internet breaks.
|
||||
|
||||
Below is a list of websites, tools, and resources that have been used to create DD and other GME-content.
|
||||
|
||||
If I am missing any useful or relevant tools, please share them so that I can update this post and [wikAPEdia](https://github.com/verymeticulous/wikAPEdia#readme) for new and curious apes in the future.
|
||||
|
||||
Also, if I missed giving credit to the creators of these tools, please let me know as well!
|
||||
|
||||
Hope this helps!
|
||||
|
||||
2\. Resources
|
||||
|
||||
| Name | Description |
|
||||
| --- | --- |
|
||||
| [GME DD](https://gmedd.com/) | Resource that aggregates a compilation of GME due diligence. |
|
||||
| [GME Timeline](https://gmetimeline.com/) | Comprehensive timeline of GME-related events. |
|
||||
| [GME Technical Analysis](https://www.investing.com/equities/gamestop-corp-technical) | Tracks technical analysis, news, and other insights for a particular stock. |
|
||||
| [IBorrowDesk](https://iborrowdesk.com/report/GME) | Monitors borrow rates and availability using Interactive Broker's freely available data. |
|
||||
| [Stonk-O-Tracker](https://gme.crazyawesomecompany.com/) | Tracks available shares to borrow, options data, FTDs, and more. |
|
||||
| [Where are the Shares?](https://wherearetheshares.com/) | Tool that monitors FTDs. |
|
||||
| [SEC - Fails-to-Deliver Data](https://www.sec.gov/data/foiadocsfailsdatahtm) | Website that provides FTD data. |
|
||||
| [GME ETFs](https://www.etf.com/stock/GME) | Tracks how many ETFs hold GME. |
|
||||
| [ETF Channel](https://www.etfchannel.com/symbol/gme/) | Website that shows ETF holdings of a particular stock. |
|
||||
| [NASDAQ Short Interest](https://www.nasdaqtrader.com/Trader.aspx?id=ShortInterest#) | Provides short interest data for mid-month and end of month settlement dates for a particular stock. |
|
||||
| [Ortex - Short Interest](https://www.ortex.com/symbol/NYSE/GME/short_interest) | Dashboard that show short interest data. |
|
||||
| [NASDAQ - Real Time Trades](https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/stocks/gme/latest-real-time-trades) | Tool to monitor real time trades. |
|
||||
| [S&P 500 Heatmap](https://finviz.com/map.ashx) | Website that allows you to observe when Hedge Funds are liquidating in which sector(s). |
|
||||
| [Holdings Channel](https://www.holdingschannel.com/bystock/?symbol=gme) | Displays a list of funds holding GME. |
|
||||
| [Fintel - GME Institutional Ownership](https://fintel.io/so/us/gme) | Dashboard that shown ownership data, short interest %, and other reports. |
|
||||
| [FINRA - Morningstar](http://finra-markets.morningstar.com/MarketData/EquityOptions/detail.jsp?query=14%3A0P000002CH&sdkVersion=2.60.0) | Tracks equity and options data along with other information. |
|
||||
| [Yahoo - GME Historical Data](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/GME/history?p=GME) | Shows a running history of GME previous open and closing prices, volume, etc. |
|
||||
| [Tiingo - GME Overview](https://www.tiingo.com/gme/overview) | A financial research platform dedicated to creating innovative financial tools for all. |
|
||||
| [Superstonk Quants](https://www.superstonkquant.org/) | Open-source resource that aims to provide quantitative analysis on the market. |
|
||||
| [Quiver Quantitative](https://www.quiverquant.com/) | Website created by [u/pdwp90](https://www.reddit.com/u/pdwp90/) that aggregates alternative data and visualizes it into dashboards. Read more [here](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/mlevq3/ive_been_scraping_data_used_by_hedge_funds_for/). |
|
||||
| [Gamestonk Terminal](https://www.reddit.com/r/DDintoGME/comments/mxl0co/move_over_bloomberg_terminal_here_comes_gamestonk/) | Bloomberg-like Terminal created by [u/SexyYear](https://www.reddit.com/u/SexyYear/) |
|
||||
| [Stockgrid - Dark Pool Data](https://www.stockgrid.io/darkpools) | Dashboard that shows dark pool data. |
|
||||
| [NASDAQ - Reg SHO Threshold List](https://www.nasdaqtrader.com/Trader.aspx?id=RegSHOThreshold) | List that displays securities that are currently on threshold. |
|
||||
| [Repo and Reverse Repo Operations](https://apps.newyorkfed.org/markets/autorates/tomo-results-display?SHOWMORE=TRUE&startDate=01/01/2000&enddate=01/01/2000) | Tracks ON-RRP and participants daily. |
|
||||
| [Buffet Indicator](https://currentmarketvaluation.com/models/buffett-indicator.php) | Resource that depicts when the market is overvalued or undervalued. |
|
||||
| [Advisor Perspectives](https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2021/06/04/the-s-p-500-dow-and-nasdaq-since-their-2000-highs) | Shows inflation-adjusted charts of the S&P 500, Dow 30, and Nasdaq. |
|
||||
| [DTCC - SEC Rule Filings](https://www.dtcc.com/legal/sec-rule-filings) | Lists rule filings from major institutions. |
|
||||
| [US Senate Stock Watcher](https://senatestockwatcher.com/) | Website created by [u/rambat1994](https://www.reddit.com/u/rambat1994/) that tracks stock trades of US Senate Members. |
|
||||
| [US House of Representatives Stock Watcher](https://housestockwatcher.com/) | Website created by [u/rambat1994](https://www.reddit.com/u/rambat1994/) that tracks stock trades of US House of Representatives. |
|
@ -0,0 +1,219 @@
|
||||
[Speculative] Piecing together the ITM CALLs and the OTM PUTs. Melvin was margin called on January 25th, so they swapped risk to Citadel. Melvin bought up those OTM PUTs from Citadel hoping to profit off of their original shorts, but the expirations of the OTM PUTs do nothing.
|
||||
=====================================================================================================================================================================================================================================================================================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :----: | :----: |
|
||||
| [u/Criand](https://www.reddit.com/user/Criand/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/orr9tf/speculative_piecing_together_the_itm_calls_and/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
|
||||
[Possible DD 👨🔬](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22Possible%20DD%20%F0%9F%91%A8%E2%80%8D%F0%9F%94%AC%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||
0\. Preface
|
||||
|
||||
I am not a financial advisor. I do not provide financial advice.
|
||||
|
||||
This post is speculative - and warrants discussion. I'm mainly looking for the answers to the following questions, and (I think) they are answered by this post. But who knows for sure since there is a lot of data and information that we can't see. I'd like to stir the pot and see if anyone can find holes or come up with a better answer.
|
||||
|
||||
I've been discussing this with a few others on Discord. Notably "Assets" was the one who described the risk-swap theory. I wanted to try to piece the theory together with the data we see for further discussion.
|
||||
|
||||
TLDR / Questions In Mind:
|
||||
|
||||
- TLDR: Melvin was the most overextended of all of the SHFs (including Citadel HF and Point72). Melvin got margin called when GME opened at $96 on January 25th, an increase from January 22nd's close of $65.01. So, Melvin required a cash injection of $2.75 Billion to meet the margin call. Since the retail rally wasn't letting up, they had to swap risk from Melvin to avoid continuous margin calls. Melvin closed their short position and ate the 53% loss. Citadel opened up a new short position to help Melvin close their shorts through ITM CALLs. Citadel then sells Melvin OTM PUTs so that Melvin can potentially profit off of their short position again when $GME goes down. As those PUTs expire, Melvin loses out on profits and Citadel is left holding a larger bag. Point72 and Citadel both aided in the injection, so they both most likely are exposed to GME shorts as well and had an interest in Melvin staying alive. Point72 was "down 15%" in January and could be the reason the price drops from $350, which is potentially Point72's margin call price. It's taking forever to squeeze because Citadel is holding the main bag.
|
||||
|
||||
- Q: Why did SI% drop and not go up?
|
||||
|
||||
- A: Melvin, the most overextended of the SHFs, did close out their short position by transferring the short position to Citadel whom is harder to squeeze. Melvin did this through ITM CALLs to obtain shares to close with, while Citadel borrowed shares it hadn't located yet in order to satisfy the CALLs. They had to do this due to illiquidity of the stock and avoid driving the price through a market order. This opened a new short position on Citadel's end. Citadel can presumably can-kick the short position that they took the bag of so that it doesn't appear on SI% due to special market making privileges. But, as the price remains high, Citadel remains the bagholder because that transferred short position remains open.
|
||||
|
||||
- Q: Why are there a ton of OTM PUTs that expire and do nothing?
|
||||
|
||||
- A: The OTM PUTs are presumably Covered PUTs that Citadel sold back to Melvin which are covered by the short position that Citadel opened when they transferred the risk. It allows Melvin to potentially profit off of their original short position again. Upon expiration Melvin loses out on their potential profits, and Citadel holds a larger portion of the bag. Remember - when hiding FTDs you're simply resetting the timer of T+2. You cannot "hide" an FTD in an option for an extended amount of time. Only reset the timer. So, the OTM PUTs are most likely a play by Melvin to profit off of the price dropping since they ate a 53% loss.
|
||||
|
||||
- Q: Why are they not opening any more OTM PUTs?
|
||||
|
||||
- A: The transfer of risk has already been completed and Melvin ate the 53% loss. Them opening the mass amount of PUTs in January could have been an overconfidence play, thinking that retail would have sold and GameStop would have decayed enough in price to churn profits off of the PUTs. Seeing how retail isn't letting up, Melvin is giving up and leaving Citadel to hold the bag. There's no reason to open up more worthless PUTs against their original short position if Melvin is no longer holding the bag and it no longer looks like a profitable play.
|
||||
|
||||
- Q: Why did nearly 130 million shares worth of ITM CALLs get traded in January?
|
||||
|
||||
- A: The "buy-write" transaction is defined by the SEC as being used to reset a failure to deliver. At the time, there were only 3 million FTDs on record and yet 130 million shares worth of ITM CALLs being traded. There was no reason to have that large of a discrepancy in FTDs and ITM CALLs unless the trade's purpose was for something other than a reset. Best possible other scenario is that the ITM CALLs were used to transfer risk to Citadel by delivering shares to Melvin due to illiquidity in the market.
|
||||
|
||||
- Q: Why was Melvin down ~53% (GME = $96.73), then up ~22% in February (GME = ~$50), and then back down ~50% (GME = $180+)? Shouldn't they have much more losses?
|
||||
|
||||
- A: If they performed the swap of risk by 'locking in' their losses of 53%, then the highest losses Melvin could post is roughly 53% regardless of how high GME goes. If Melvin was still holding the original short position, then we should see their losses way higher than 53% because GME was $96.73 at the time of that reporting, and GME was trading >=$180 for a while now. The OTM PUTs that Melvin opened after locking in the 53% losses increased in value to give them 22% gains. But, as all of those PUTs expire worthless, Melvin goes back towards the locked-in 53% loss. It would be pretty sad if they gained 22% and then lost it all despite the general market having an insane rally from February to July.
|
||||
|
||||
[![r/Superstonk - [Speculative] Piecing together the ITM CALLs and the OTM PUTs. Melvin was margin called on January 25th, so they swapped risk to Citadel. Melvin bought up those OTM PUTs from Citadel hoping to profit off of their original shorts, but the expirations of the OTM PUTs do nothing.](https://preview.redd.it/ntgtqv2nghd71.png?width=1904&format=png&auto=webp&s=ac413549e2eee426a5ce9243b08699d6de8be56f)](https://preview.redd.it/ntgtqv2nghd71.png?width=1904&format=png&auto=webp&s=ac413549e2eee426a5ce9243b08699d6de8be56f)
|
||||
|
||||
The markets are very open and transparent, am I right?
|
||||
|
||||
1\. Price Injection on January 25th. Melvin Margin Called @ $96.73
|
||||
|
||||
Melvin Capital was established in late 2014, and Mr. Plotkin has stated that the fund has an "intense focus" on the short side (i.e. short selling). They also have posted insane returns ever since being founded:
|
||||
|
||||
> In its first full year in operation, Melvin Capital had returns of 47%, ranking it 2nd in Bloomberg's 2015 list of top-performing funds with $1 billion or more in assets under management.
|
||||
>
|
||||
> In 2017, the fund finished up 41%.
|
||||
|
||||
Amazing. These guys churned out insane profits multiple years in a row to grow from $1 Billion in value to over $22 Billion by the end of 2020 (22x).
|
||||
|
||||
[![r/Superstonk - [Speculative] Piecing together the ITM CALLs and the OTM PUTs. Melvin was margin called on January 25th, so they swapped risk to Citadel. Melvin bought up those OTM PUTs from Citadel hoping to profit off of their original shorts, but the expirations of the OTM PUTs do nothing.](https://preview.redd.it/nkg6g66pghd71.png?width=1502&format=png&auto=webp&s=8cc5eb348bc5d501c8d5a4999e07714bc691a30c)](https://preview.redd.it/nkg6g66pghd71.png?width=1502&format=png&auto=webp&s=8cc5eb348bc5d501c8d5a4999e07714bc691a30c)
|
||||
|
||||
https://fintel.io/i/melvin-capital-management-lp
|
||||
|
||||
If you plot when Melvin was first established on $GME and then watch how the price behaves, it seems pretty clear that Melvin and others started mass shorting and driving $GME into the ground.
|
||||
|
||||
[![r/Superstonk - [Speculative] Piecing together the ITM CALLs and the OTM PUTs. Melvin was margin called on January 25th, so they swapped risk to Citadel. Melvin bought up those OTM PUTs from Citadel hoping to profit off of their original shorts, but the expirations of the OTM PUTs do nothing.](https://preview.redd.it/4olph0sqghd71.png?width=2428&format=png&auto=webp&s=83308c7b1c90bbc301746ea5b341dfa9863e8b7d)](https://preview.redd.it/4olph0sqghd71.png?width=2428&format=png&auto=webp&s=83308c7b1c90bbc301746ea5b341dfa9863e8b7d)
|
||||
|
||||
GME Price Since 2014
|
||||
|
||||
By shorting between the prices of $48 and $3, it leaves Melvin exposed to a rather low margin call price, given 100% margin requirements. Especially if they were way overextended compared to Point72 and Citadel.
|
||||
|
||||
On January 22nd, $GME closed at $65.01 and then opened on January 25th at $96.73. This was a massive jump in price, and Melvin most likely got margin called. In order to avoid being liquidated, Melvin was (presumably) asked to post around $2.75 Billion to their account.
|
||||
|
||||
Which is then where Citadel and Point72 come in...
|
||||
|
||||
The three of them are probably all short GameStop. But, Melvin was the psycho of the group who decided to short it way more than they should have shorted. All three of them knowing the true SI% and figuring they're all fucked if Melvin falls, they decide to bail out Melvin from the margin call so that they have enough time to swap the risk away from Melvin to prevent further margin calls.
|
||||
|
||||
Point72 was (not) suspiciously down 15% in January. A situation that they refused to comment on. This was when GameStop was trading at roughly $96.73. Knowing that Melvin was most likely margin called around $96.73, I wouldn't be surprised if Point72 was the ones who were going to be margin called around the $350 price point and that's why the price has flash crashed from there multiple times.
|
||||
|
||||
[![r/Superstonk - [Speculative] Piecing together the ITM CALLs and the OTM PUTs. Melvin was margin called on January 25th, so they swapped risk to Citadel. Melvin bought up those OTM PUTs from Citadel hoping to profit off of their original shorts, but the expirations of the OTM PUTs do nothing.](https://preview.redd.it/6d5bdqesghd71.png?width=881&format=png&auto=webp&s=4a6dfce72eafc6236d78a886b08a3578f555ad83)](https://preview.redd.it/6d5bdqesghd71.png?width=881&format=png&auto=webp&s=4a6dfce72eafc6236d78a886b08a3578f555ad83)
|
||||
|
||||
Point72 Loses 15% by January 25th (GME = $96.73)
|
||||
|
||||
At this point, it was in Citadel and Point72's best interest if Melvin does not get liquidated and forced to cover. Instead, it is in their best interest if Melvin is bailed out and then a swap of risk of the short position occurs. The swap of risk to Citadel, the market maker, can hold the bag since they're harder to squeeze and they have special privileges.
|
||||
|
||||
But, the only way for their plan to fully work is if retail sells. Otherwise, Citadel is continuously holding a massive short position from their overextended friend Melvin once the risk swap occurs. In the end, it is their best and only option. Take on the risk because if they don't they'll all fall and be gobbled up.
|
||||
|
||||
To put in summary so far:
|
||||
|
||||
1. Melvin has most likely been shorting GameStop since Melvin's inception in late 2014. Point72 and Citadel must have joined in on the fun and generated their own bags of short positions of $GME.
|
||||
|
||||
2. Melvin accrued a massive bag of shorts, causing them to be margin called when $GME closed at $65.01 on January 22nd and then opened at $96.73 on January 25th. They posted a loss of 53% ($12.5 Billion) at this time.
|
||||
|
||||
3. Point72 and Citadel send $2.75 Billion to Melvin so that Melvin avoids being liquidated, which would have forced Melvin to close their short positions on open market. This allows Melvin to swap the risk of the short position to Citadel and get Melvin out of the picture while the retail rally isn't letting up. Thus, Point72 and Citadel the Hedgefund are saved.
|
||||
|
||||
[![r/Superstonk - [Speculative] Piecing together the ITM CALLs and the OTM PUTs. Melvin was margin called on January 25th, so they swapped risk to Citadel. Melvin bought up those OTM PUTs from Citadel hoping to profit off of their original shorts, but the expirations of the OTM PUTs do nothing.](https://preview.redd.it/0uqf5xqtghd71.png?width=691&format=png&auto=webp&s=01e5e422d46e1bac164a9740b8c3752f99122e78)](https://preview.redd.it/0uqf5xqtghd71.png?width=691&format=png&auto=webp&s=01e5e422d46e1bac164a9740b8c3752f99122e78)
|
||||
|
||||
Losses + Injection
|
||||
|
||||
[![r/Superstonk - [Speculative] Piecing together the ITM CALLs and the OTM PUTs. Melvin was margin called on January 25th, so they swapped risk to Citadel. Melvin bought up those OTM PUTs from Citadel hoping to profit off of their original shorts, but the expirations of the OTM PUTs do nothing.](https://preview.redd.it/91tnb4zughd71.png?width=1020&format=png&auto=webp&s=6acb6f7a81dd022c06cedab268d3857254f3df41)](https://preview.redd.it/91tnb4zughd71.png?width=1020&format=png&auto=webp&s=6acb6f7a81dd022c06cedab268d3857254f3df41)
|
||||
|
||||
Injection between Citadel and Melvin
|
||||
|
||||
2\. Melvin The Most Overextended - Swap Risk to Citadel with ITM CALLs and lock in 53% loss.
|
||||
|
||||
After receiving the injection of $2.75 billion when $GME was trading at $96.73, Melvin is saved from failing the margin call and from being liquidated.
|
||||
|
||||
A problem still remains: if $GME continues to rally higher above $96.73, then Melvin will continue to be margin called and forced to post more and more liquidity to their account.
|
||||
|
||||
Thus, a transfer of risk must be performed. The best party to transfer the risk to is Citadel the Market Maker, as they have special privileges as a Market Maker and thus are harder to squeeze. The transfer of risk is done by closing out Melvin's original short position with Citadel's market making privileges of borrowing without locating shares for the sake of liquidity. Those "shares" are then sent to Melvin through ITM CALLs. By not locating the shares, this opens up a short position on Citadel's end.
|
||||
|
||||
What happened between the cash injection and Melvin reporting that they closed out of their position?:
|
||||
|
||||
- Upon January 25th, Melvin receives its cash injection of $2.75 billion to avoid being liquidated due to a margin call.
|
||||
|
||||
- By the end of January 26th, Melvin has closed out of their GameStop short position.
|
||||
|
||||
- During the January runup, close to 1.1 million ITM CALLs were traded and exercised in the same day. These ITM CALLs are how the transfer of risk can be made.
|
||||
|
||||
[![r/Superstonk - [Speculative] Piecing together the ITM CALLs and the OTM PUTs. Melvin was margin called on January 25th, so they swapped risk to Citadel. Melvin bought up those OTM PUTs from Citadel hoping to profit off of their original shorts, but the expirations of the OTM PUTs do nothing.](https://preview.redd.it/yk9p3uywghd71.png?width=727&format=png&auto=webp&s=650aea0a1fe96261ed42b82df05a57b821a8c4fe)](https://preview.redd.it/yk9p3uywghd71.png?width=727&format=png&auto=webp&s=650aea0a1fe96261ed42b82df05a57b821a8c4fe)
|
||||
|
||||
ITM CALLs and Close Out of Short Position. ITM CALL chart per /u/broccaaa
|
||||
|
||||
What most likely happened here is that Melvin did indeed close out their short position by locking in the 53% loss ($12.5 Billion) through the use of Citadel the Market Maker. But... the short position is now in Citadel's hands and Citadel is now holding the bag. The whole purpose of this to prevent Melvin from tumbling and bringing them all down. This swap of risk was done with the following steps:
|
||||
|
||||
1. Melvin buys ITM CALLs from Citadel. They use deep ITM CALLs with little to no OI + volume so that the trade is almost guaranteed between the two parties. This locks in their losses of 53%.
|
||||
|
||||
2. Citadel does not have the shares for the CALLs that are going to be exercised. So, they borrow shares without first locating them to feed into the ITM CALLs. Citadel can do this due to being a bonafide Market Maker.
|
||||
|
||||
3. Melvin exercises the ITM CALLs to get the shares from Citadel. Melvin then uses these shares to close out their short position.
|
||||
|
||||
4. Citadel is left holding the bag of the original short position and Melvin is now prevented from further margin calls. The riskiest domino out of Melvin, Point72, and Citadel (HF) is taken off of the table.
|
||||
|
||||
[![r/Superstonk - [Speculative] Piecing together the ITM CALLs and the OTM PUTs. Melvin was margin called on January 25th, so they swapped risk to Citadel. Melvin bought up those OTM PUTs from Citadel hoping to profit off of their original shorts, but the expirations of the OTM PUTs do nothing.](https://preview.redd.it/uep65mpyghd71.png?width=1020&format=png&auto=webp&s=d96d526b60d0a6df30133d88dac22eb94682ee72)](https://preview.redd.it/uep65mpyghd71.png?width=1020&format=png&auto=webp&s=d96d526b60d0a6df30133d88dac22eb94682ee72)
|
||||
|
||||
Swap of risk between Melvin and Citadel
|
||||
|
||||
3\. Allow Melvin to potentially make profit again with OTM PUTs by repositioning the portfolio.
|
||||
|
||||
Not wanting to completely shaft Melvin now that they've closed out of their position and cannot profit off of $GME on the way back down, Melvin is given an opportunity to profit off of their original shorts.
|
||||
|
||||
Citadel can feed the short position that they opened from the risk swap back into OTM PUTs to sell them as covered PUTs. These PUTs can be bought up by Melvin and then exercised if the price gets low enough, allowing Melvin to regain their 53% losses and possibly more profits. In essence, the whole trade would basically be a balance sheet swap where Melvin is simply repositioned to still have their short position.
|
||||
|
||||
After transitioning the risk, Melvin (and the others) don't have to worry about further margin calls and Melvin only has to spend a couple pennies worth to buy up the OTM PUTs from Citadel.
|
||||
|
||||
[![r/Superstonk - [Speculative] Piecing together the ITM CALLs and the OTM PUTs. Melvin was margin called on January 25th, so they swapped risk to Citadel. Melvin bought up those OTM PUTs from Citadel hoping to profit off of their original shorts, but the expirations of the OTM PUTs do nothing.](https://preview.redd.it/frkxgab0hhd71.png?width=1021&format=png&auto=webp&s=66e8245539f9216e60471aed2cd9e8d58aa212ec)](https://preview.redd.it/frkxgab0hhd71.png?width=1021&format=png&auto=webp&s=66e8245539f9216e60471aed2cd9e8d58aa212ec)
|
||||
|
||||
Melvin Repositioning of Short Position
|
||||
|
||||
And given their testimony, Melvin isn't technically lying when they say that they've "closed out of their position" and that they "repositioned the portfolio". Through a swap of risk and then opening the OTM PUTs, Melvin has closed out of their short position and then repositioned their short position exposure. They're still technically short the stock through the OTM PUTs of Citadel's bags.
|
||||
|
||||
We see potential evidence of this swap because during the January runup, the number of PUT OI skyrocketed by roughly the amount of ITM CALLs that were traded. In an overconfidence play, Melvin most likely opened up these PUTs assuming retail would sell and that the price of $GME would decay to $0.50 by July 16th, giving them back their losses.
|
||||
|
||||
What is really interesting is that in 13F filings, despite there being roughly 1.3 million PUTs on March 31st, 2021, only 0.3 million were accounted for: [13F discrepancies from /u/broccaaa](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nev6po/all_new_13f_filings_data_visualised_for_all_major/?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share).
|
||||
|
||||
About 1 million PUTs are unreported.
|
||||
|
||||
Which then leads to the 13F of Melvin. Their 13F specifically states that they are redacting some information from the filing. They are probably hiding their PUT exposure. [Melvin's 13F is hiding PUTs from /u/AutoDrafter2020](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/ner3uc/melvin_capital_13f_filing_is_inaccurate_and_they/)
|
||||
|
||||
It's an assumption. But, when asking myself, "Where the hell are those PUTs?", "What is Melvin hiding?" and then thinking about the mechanics behind the swap of risk it makes sense to me that Melvin is holding a massive amount of these OTM PUTs.
|
||||
|
||||
Especially given Melvin's strange gains and losses over the past six months.
|
||||
|
||||
[![r/Superstonk - [Speculative] Piecing together the ITM CALLs and the OTM PUTs. Melvin was margin called on January 25th, so they swapped risk to Citadel. Melvin bought up those OTM PUTs from Citadel hoping to profit off of their original shorts, but the expirations of the OTM PUTs do nothing.](https://preview.redd.it/t3oytoo1hhd71.png?width=768&format=png&auto=webp&s=9f857d4e9a8bef2723885ee9785b79dd82c1077b)](https://preview.redd.it/t3oytoo1hhd71.png?width=768&format=png&auto=webp&s=9f857d4e9a8bef2723885ee9785b79dd82c1077b)
|
||||
|
||||
OTM PUTs Part 1. CALL and PUT OI chart per /u/broccaaa
|
||||
|
||||
For the month of February, Melvin posted gains of ~22%. And then, despite the market performing quite well since then, Melvin amazingly lost it all of those gains and is almost back to their original 53% losses.
|
||||
|
||||
Putting it all together, it makes sense as to how they'd be posting these weird ass gains and then losses.
|
||||
|
||||
1. Melvin locks in a loss of ~53% in January by closing out their positions and transferring the risk to Citadel the Market Maker.
|
||||
|
||||
2. Melvin buys up all of the OTM PUTs in an overconfidence play thinking retail will sell.
|
||||
|
||||
3. Melvin posts gains of 22% as their OTM PUTs slowly become in the money and $GME drops back to $40 in February.
|
||||
|
||||
4. Melvin's gains of 22% are wiped out as $GME has its rally back up and those PUTs expire worthless on March 19th, April 16th, and July 16th.
|
||||
|
||||
5. As all of the OTM PUTs expire worthless, Melvin goes back to their original losses of 53%. Remember - if they had not closed out their position and done the risk swap - they should be posting a much higher loss for $GME at $180 rather than a 53% loss when $GME was $96.73.
|
||||
|
||||
[![r/Superstonk - [Speculative] Piecing together the ITM CALLs and the OTM PUTs. Melvin was margin called on January 25th, so they swapped risk to Citadel. Melvin bought up those OTM PUTs from Citadel hoping to profit off of their original shorts, but the expirations of the OTM PUTs do nothing.](https://preview.redd.it/flktfg73hhd71.png?width=788&format=png&auto=webp&s=641e139fbb9d594e5b0d6abeb174e56889f59c27)](https://preview.redd.it/flktfg73hhd71.png?width=788&format=png&auto=webp&s=641e139fbb9d594e5b0d6abeb174e56889f59c27)
|
||||
|
||||
OTM PUTs Part 2
|
||||
|
||||
4\. Conclusion (In Bullet Form)
|
||||
|
||||
Again this is all speculative. But it would answer a loooot of questions. Please poke holes and discuss further:
|
||||
|
||||
- Melvin was probably margin called in January and required $2.75 billion to not be liquidated.
|
||||
|
||||
- Melvin was the most overextended out of Melvin, Point72, and Citadel the Hedgefund. Since Melvin was already getting margin called, they needed to swap the risk from Melvin because the retail buy pressure wasn't letting up.
|
||||
|
||||
- Point72 posted 15% losses in January, they more than likely hold a $GME short position and their margin call price is around $350, hence the price drops from $350 and shutdown of buys in January.
|
||||
|
||||
- Melvin was removed from the table and closed out of their short position by using ITM CALLs from Citadel. They had to do this method due to illiquidity in the market. This gets rid of the most overextended SHF but creates a new bag holder (Citadel MM).
|
||||
|
||||
- There was too much of a discrepancy in ITM CALL activity and the number of FTDs in January for it to be an FTD reset play. Absolutely no reason to perform those buy-writes if there weren't enough FTDs to justify it. There were about 110 million shares worth of deep ITM CALLs traded, and only 3 million FTDs. Rather, it must have been a risk swapping play.
|
||||
|
||||
- By covering, Melvin can now report a different short position per their balance sheet and the SI% drops from 226% to 30%.
|
||||
|
||||
- Since Citadel the market maker is bag holding, they can (presumably) can-kick the short position and keep it from appearing on SI%. As a Market Maker, they can borrow shares without first locating them for the sake of liquidity.
|
||||
|
||||
- Melvin ate the 53% ($12.5 billion loss) when swapping risk. By doing this, they aren't forced to cover and thus Point72 and Citadel are also saved from the ~$96.73 Melvin margin call price.
|
||||
|
||||
- Melvin was allowed to potentially profit off of their original short position by buying up OTM PUTs from Citadel which were fed by the short position that Citadel opened to satisfy the ITM CALLs.
|
||||
|
||||
- As $GME dropped back to $40, Melvin posted a gain of 22% in February because of the OTM PUTs becoming in the money.
|
||||
|
||||
- As these OTM PUTs expire, nothing happens beyond Melvin losing out on profits and Citadel continuing to hold the bag.
|
||||
|
||||
- Melvin doesn't need to open up more OTM PUTs if the MOASS is looking more and more likely of occurring. They've escaped with 53% losses, just let it go.
|
||||
|
||||
- If Melvin didn't close their shorts, they should have much more than 53% losses now that $GME is trading at $180+. If they did perform the swap of risk, then it explains why they gained 22% and are now back to about 53% losses despite $GME being double in price of when they closed out.
|
||||
|
||||
And to be clear:
|
||||
|
||||
This does not mean that there will be no squeeze. I am showing you that even if Melvin closed and ate the 53% loss, Citadel and Point72 are still short and Citadel is most likely holding the bag.
|
||||
|
||||
As long as short positions are opened, then they must be covered once the dominos start to fall.
|
130
DD/2021-01-30-GME-Thread-Brokers-that-Halted-Trading.md
Normal file
130
DD/2021-01-30-GME-Thread-Brokers-that-Halted-Trading.md
Normal file
@ -0,0 +1,130 @@
|
||||
Weekend GME Thread + Homework for all: Let's stop using brokerages that halted trading
|
||||
======================================================================================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/CriticDanger](https://www.reddit.com/user/CriticDanger/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/l8rhr3/weekend_gme_thread_homework_for_all_lets_stop/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
[Discussion](https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/search?q=flair_name%3A%22Discussion%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||
Hello all,
|
||||
|
||||
Let's use this thread to discuss the GameStop situation this weekend, please don't open new threads about it unless it is a unique perspective or brings very valuable information.
|
||||
|
||||
Do note, posts and comments are still restricted to users with a higher Karma and account age.
|
||||
|
||||
Important information
|
||||
|
||||
First, let's get some things out of the way:
|
||||
|
||||
- The short squeeze has not squoze yet, short interest estimates are still extremely high, I won't post the sources and encourage you to search for it yourself.
|
||||
|
||||
- The gamma squeeze has not happened, it may happen Monday, it may happen gradually, it may not happen (if their positions have already been covered), it isn't necessary for anything to happen, however.
|
||||
|
||||
- The establishment is still lying about many things for the purpose of market manipulation (Jim Cramer, CNBC, etc.). These people are SOLD. Read Canadian news channels regarding the situation, they are much less biased!
|
||||
|
||||
- Google and Apple and removing negative reviews from bad brokers from their app stores, put a calendar reminder in 2-6 weeks to add your review at that time, instead of now.
|
||||
|
||||
* * * * *
|
||||
|
||||
Let's make a list of the Brokers that restricted the purchasing of specific tickers
|
||||
|
||||
The worst thing that happened this week were the restrictions that our brokers put on buying specific tickers. This, obviously, affected the stock market, tanked those tickers, and significantly reduced our trust in the institutions at hand.
|
||||
|
||||
Now, I'm aware the reasons for this are complicated, we know that for many of them, they were forced to restrict these tickers by their Clearing Houses (Apex being the main one), we don't exactly know why, or whether that is legal or not, however.
|
||||
|
||||
One thing for certain, the communication by the brokers and clearing houses was very, very, very bad. This, in turns, significantly harmed the public's trust in them, as well as the institutions in charge of regulating this.
|
||||
|
||||
Here is my list, please comment below and let me know which ones I've missed:
|
||||
|
||||
Horrible Brokers - Restricted purchasing of certain tickets and lied/gloated about it
|
||||
|
||||
- Robinhood - [Now Blocking 50 Equities](https://seekingalpha.com/news/3656437-robinhoods-50-stock-limit-list?mail_subject=bb-ino-robinhood-s-50-stock-limit-list-with-spacs-makes-mass-exodus-likelier-alpha-tactics&utm_campaign=rta-stock-news&utm_content=link-73&utm_medium=email&utm_source=seeking_alpha) - [CEO lying saying they have no liquidity issues, 1 day before getting a 1 billion bailout](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6fs_lyGn4YA) - [Join the lawsuit against them if you were affected](https://robinhoodgamestopclassaction.com/)
|
||||
|
||||
- Interactive Brokers (US/CAN) - [Display visible contempt for Retail traders, wants GME to go to 17 before re-enabling trading](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7RH4XKP55fM) - [Blocked Trading212, as their acting intermediary](https://www.financemagnates.com/forex/brokers/trading-212-blames-interactive-brokers-for-trade-execution-delay/)
|
||||
|
||||
- E-Toro - [Proof](https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/robinhood-webull-m1-reopen-gamestop-stock-trading-2021-1-1030019926) - [Forced stop-losses](https://www.etoro.com/posts/0__entry__df95e7f0-1772-4ec7-a271-69b13ca229dd?utm_medium=Direct&utm_source=55714&utm_content=0&utm_serial=SocialSharePostcopyLink_918269&utm_campaign=SocialSharePostcopyLink_918269&utm_term)
|
||||
|
||||
Bad Brokers - Restricted purchasing of certain tickers
|
||||
|
||||
- E-Trade - [Proof](https://www.theverge.com/2021/1/28/22254863/etrade-gamestop-amc-stock-reddit-wallstreetbets-robinhood)
|
||||
|
||||
- Ally - [Proof](https://www.wsj.com/articles/online-brokerages-restrict-trading-on-gamestop-amc-amid-frenetic-trading-11611849934)
|
||||
|
||||
- Public.com - [Proof](https://techcrunch.com/2021/01/28/webull-and-public-remove-restrictions-on-memestocks-after-citing-trade-settlement-firm-as-the-cause/)
|
||||
|
||||
- Merrill Edge - [Proof](https://www.streetinsider.com/Momentum+Movers/Merrill+Edge+said+to+have+put+restrictions+on+trading+in+AMC+Entertainment+%28AMC%29%2C+GameStop+%28GME%29/17879212.html)
|
||||
|
||||
- IG Broker - [Proof](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/gamestop-amc-uk-trading-platform-163546937.html)
|
||||
|
||||
- Trade Republic - [Proof](https://www.tellerreport.com/business/2021-01-29-%0A---trade-republic-and-gamestop--patronizing-investors-%0A--.BJNYXthWl_.html)
|
||||
|
||||
- Webull - [Admitted they were forced to by clearing firm](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/we-bull-ceo-explains-why-trading-was-restricted-amid-the-game-stop-market-mania-172539318.html) - [Clearing firm is Apex](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4RS4JIEVyXM&feature=youtu.be) - They'll be moved to neutral once they publicly confirm Apex was sole reason the trades were restricted.
|
||||
|
||||
- Stake - [Proof](https://hellostake.com/au/stake-updates/understanding-trading-suspensions/)
|
||||
|
||||
- Trading212 - [Proof](https://inews.co.uk/news/business/gamestop-uk-trading-robinhood-trading-212-gme-stock-restricted-legal-action-850465) - [re-enabled, caused by intermediary](https://twitter.com/Trading212/status/1355074914202628098) - [Intermediary is IB](https://www.financemagnates.com/forex/brokers/trading-212-blames-interactive-brokers-for-trade-execution-delay/) - [Restricted purchasing of other securities previous](https://community.trading212.com/t/gold-buying-restricted-in-larger-quantities/27987) - Based on them restricting securities before this, and countless complaints regarding other restrictions, I've put them back in the bad list.
|
||||
|
||||
Neutral Brokers - Restricted trading, publicly naming their intermediary
|
||||
|
||||
- Freetrade - [Proof, blames Barclays](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/29/gamestop-saga-uk-trading-app-freetrade-halts-purchases-of-us-stocks.html) - [CMO Interview](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V76UGdYAdcI&feature=youtu.be) - [CMO Tweets](https://twitter.com/v18n/status/1355258696885030915?s=19)
|
||||
|
||||
- M1 Finance - [Proof](https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/robinhood-webull-m1-reopen-gamestop-stock-trading-2021-1-1030019926) - [Blames Apex Clearing](https://twitter.com/m1_finance/status/1354837064072753152)
|
||||
|
||||
- Tastyworks - [Proof, blame Apex Clearing](https://twitter.com/thetastyworks/status/1354879706991128578)
|
||||
|
||||
- Stash - [Proof, blamex Apex Clearing](https://twitter.com/Stash/status/1354839916761518083?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1354839916761518083%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.newsweek.com%2Fwebull-blocks-gamestop-amc-transactions-stock-market-robinhood-1565172)
|
||||
|
||||
- TD Ameritrade/Canada - [Proof](https://www.cnet.com/news/reddits-amc-and-gamestop-stocks-swing-wildly-after-robinhood-td-ameritrade-restrict-trades/) - [Proof2](https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/robinhood-gamestop-1.5891363) - (Margin requirements increased, Covered call and short put orders may only be placed with a broker and support times are > 2h, other trades restricted) - Neutral because they didn't restrict the purchase of stocks with cash.
|
||||
|
||||
- Revolut - [Proof](https://www.financemagnates.com/forex/brokers/gamestop-buyers-suffer-another-setback-as-revolut-bans-trading/) - Blames DriveWealth LCC
|
||||
|
||||
Good Brokers - Did not restrict trading
|
||||
|
||||
- Most Canadian Brokers (Questrade, Qtrade, Disnat, BMO, HSBC, RBC, TD, etc.)
|
||||
|
||||
- Most European Brokers (Swissquote, TradeStation, Degiro)
|
||||
|
||||
- Fidelity
|
||||
|
||||
- Vanguard
|
||||
|
||||
- WealthSimple (CAN, US)
|
||||
|
||||
- Schwab (Margin requirements increased)
|
||||
|
||||
- You Invest (JP Morgan/Chase)
|
||||
|
||||
- Capital.com
|
||||
|
||||
- Wells Fargo - [allowed trades but banned its advisors from talking about GameStop](https://www.barrons.com/articles/wells-fargo-blocks-advisors-from-recommending-gamestop-amc-51611870929)
|
||||
|
||||
- Nordnet
|
||||
|
||||
- Citibank
|
||||
|
||||
* * * * *
|
||||
|
||||
Note regarding the clearing houses
|
||||
|
||||
The first step is to know why brokers restricted the trading. The second step is to investigate what happened with the clearing houses. Currently, the following clearing houses seem to have had the most issues:
|
||||
|
||||
- Apex Clearing
|
||||
|
||||
- Barclays
|
||||
|
||||
- IKBR
|
||||
|
||||
We don't know if these firms acted maliciously (protecting themselves before protecting the free market), or because they literally had no choice. If the former, they need to be punished. If the later, then laws need to change. EITHER WAY, something needs to change, this post is merely here to put attention on the problem, I don't claim to have the solution.
|
||||
|
||||
Additionally, there needs to be open communication about this issue, currently, they are not saying anything on social media regarding this. Once they do, I'll update this post with it.
|
||||
|
||||
Note: /r/ THICC_DICC_PRICC tried to explain this in some detail [here](https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/l90an8/an_explanation_of_what_caused_the_trading_halt/). I cannot attest to the accuracy/validity of his explanation, feel free to discuss that on his post.
|
||||
|
||||
* * * * *
|
||||
|
||||
We might keep this information on the sidebar...forever. Please help me build this list to completion. If you are using a broker in the bad list, even if you are not invested in the tickers that have been restricted, please consider moving to a better broker.
|
||||
|
||||
Thank you all for your patience, we are sorry new members are not able to comment yet, we promise you will be allowed to once this is over!
|
622
DD/2021-06-10-GME-MOASS-Thesis-Summary-v2.md
Normal file
622
DD/2021-06-10-GME-MOASS-Thesis-Summary-v2.md
Normal file
@ -0,0 +1,622 @@
|
||||
GME MOASS THESIS SUMMARY - 2.0 | Summarization of the Mother of All Short Squeezes Thesis and the Market Concepts/Mechanics behind it. Buckle Up 🚀💎🙌
|
||||
=======================================================================================================================================================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/HCMF_MaceFace](https://www.reddit.com/user/HCMF_MaceFace/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nwqaj0/gme_moass_thesis_summary_20_summarization_of_the/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
[DD 👨🔬](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22DD%20%F0%9F%91%A8%E2%80%8D%F0%9F%94%AC%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||
> This is refined and reformatted version of my previous [MOASS Thesis Summary](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nletnn/gme_the_mother_of_all_short_squeezes_moass_thesis/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3) that can be found in the [DD Beginners Guide Page](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/njwv6n/the_gme_masters_guide_a_dd_campaign_for_apes/?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share), and includes some new formatting and concepts. This one will replace it if it is well-received (either the post of the contents, either way, the link will take you to the right info).
|
||||
>
|
||||
> This content is still a slight work in progress and is not perfect (working to expand a couple newer sections), so feel free to offer suggestions.
|
||||
|
||||
I. IMPORTANT LINKS FOR NEW MEMBERS TO [r/superstonk](https://www.reddit.com/r/superstonk/)
|
||||
|
||||
- [APE Security Protocol (how to secure and protect yourself online)](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nsgv3d/ape_security_protocols/)
|
||||
|
||||
- [DD Beginners Guide Page](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/njwv6n/the_gme_masters_guide_a_dd_campaign_for_apes/?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share)
|
||||
|
||||
- [Wiki](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/wiki/index)
|
||||
|
||||
II. INTRO / INTENTION OF POST
|
||||
|
||||
The core intention of this post was to frame the MOASS Thesis in a way that was understandable to individuals inside and outside of the community (especially those who are relatively new to the market). It also is intended to serve as a reference to leverage if you are ever trying to explain to someone why you think it is a good investment option.
|
||||
|
||||
This post will give a *relatively* simplistic breakdown of the current situation and landscape of GameStop Stock (GME). It will summarize the theory that GME's price will soon reach astronomical levels during a massive short squeeze, AKA "The Mother of all Short Squeezes (MOASS) Thesis". The bulk of this post is a breakdown of the market terms and concepts that will need to be understood in order to fully comprehend the who-what-when-where-why-how.
|
||||
|
||||
III. Personal note
|
||||
|
||||
Feel free to use the contents of this post however you want. Don't worry about asking for permission to copy it, cross-post it, translate it, refine and use it in your own posts, etc.
|
||||
|
||||
Leave a comment if you have any questions. If you prefer Chat or do not meet karma requirements, you can hit me up on chat as well
|
||||
|
||||
> Note that, while I may have a good grasp on the concepts broken down in this post, my background is not in finance, investing, or trading, so there may be some questions I do not have the answer do (especially if they are not called out in this post)
|
||||
|
||||
I have found myself more active on [Twitter](https://twitter.com/intent/user?screen_name=HCMF_MaceFace) than I ever really expected to be, so feel free to [follow me](https://twitter.com/intent/user?screen_name=HCMF_MaceFace) if you want things like the below:
|
||||
|
||||
- Antagonizing Market Adversaries, MSM Shills, etc.
|
||||
|
||||
- Meme-ing with SuperStonk and the other Apes in the community
|
||||
|
||||
- Getting Notifications for Future DD I post
|
||||
|
||||
Disclaimer
|
||||
|
||||
> This writeup is NOT intended to serve as a source of proof/evidence behind this theory, and it operates under the assumption that the theory is valid and that the conditions it is built on are valid. Credit for the DD this Thesis is based on belongs to the broader retail community inside and outside of [r/superstonk](https://www.reddit.com/r/superstonk/). I personally contributed very little beyond synthesizing and summarizing the thesis and mechanics in a digestible way to help enable others to get the word out, and I am not an expert on really any of these topics despite having some knowledge in them.
|
||||
|
||||
IV. TL;DR (Also at Bottom)
|
||||
|
||||
1. Toxic Market Participants have built up massive [short positions](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/short.asp) made through [Naked Shorting](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/n/nakedshorting.asp)
|
||||
|
||||
2. Retail caught on to this strategy and discovered it can backfire if the company being shorted does not go bankrupt, especially if shares are bought and held indefinitely
|
||||
|
||||
3. Rules and regulations have implemented by the DTCC and its subsidiaries have been geared towards preventing market collapse, as well as to minimize the ability to perform illegal trades (naked shorting)
|
||||
|
||||
4. The SEC is also doing more to enforce compliance with the "rules"
|
||||
|
||||
5. The manipulators are at the mercy of a vicious trade cycle (t+21 FTD Cycle) that is forcing those with naked short positions to perform actions to [cover](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/shortcovering.asp) (buy back shares that are short), or risk regulatory consequences
|
||||
|
||||
6. This act of rapid covering drives up the price, making it more expensive to cover during the next cycle if the share price continues to increase week over week
|
||||
|
||||
7. Eventually, the prices of GME will get so high that prime brokers/clearing houses will have no choice but to [Margin Call](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/m/margincall.asp) these participants which most likely will not be affordable due to the nature of [Short Squeezes](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/shortsqueeze.asp), causing them to default
|
||||
|
||||
8. The [Prime-Brokers](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/p/primebrokerage.asp) will then take on the position, and if the Prime Brokers cannot cover them and also defaults, the NSCC will be next to attempt to settle all positions left over based on their [Recovery and Wind-down Plan (p42)](https://www.dtcc.com/~/media/Files/Downloads/legal/policy-and-compliance/NSCC_Disclosure_Framework.pdf)
|
||||
|
||||
9. If NSCC cannot afford to close everything with the money reserved for this type of situation, they the Fed must navigate the remaining positions (potentially via printing money/bailout)
|
||||
|
||||
V. KEY CONCEPTS
|
||||
|
||||
These terms are key to understanding the theory and speculated value of a GME investment. Hyperlinks to [Investopedia](https://www.investopedia.com/), "the world's leading source of financial content on the web", have been included for most market terms and concepts and it is recommended to check them out if they are not clear. We will be breaking down some of the more complex terms and concepts within the post and framing them within the context of GME.
|
||||
|
||||
Table of Contents for Key Concepts
|
||||
|
||||
1. Stocks Concepts
|
||||
|
||||
1. Share/Stock
|
||||
|
||||
2. Synthetic Shares
|
||||
|
||||
3. Outstanding Shares
|
||||
|
||||
4. Restricted Shares
|
||||
|
||||
5. The Float
|
||||
|
||||
6. Annual General Meeting
|
||||
|
||||
7. Shareholder Votes
|
||||
|
||||
2. Trade Positions
|
||||
|
||||
1. Long Position - Buying/Selling Stock
|
||||
|
||||
2. Short Position - Shorting/Covering Stock
|
||||
|
||||
3. Naked Short Position - Naked Shorting/Covering Stock
|
||||
|
||||
3. Market Participants
|
||||
|
||||
1. Retail Investors
|
||||
|
||||
2. Institutional Investors
|
||||
|
||||
3. Market Makers
|
||||
|
||||
4. Prime Brokers
|
||||
|
||||
5. Clearinghouses
|
||||
|
||||
6. MSM
|
||||
|
||||
4. IMPORTANT MARKET/TRADE MECHANICS (MOASS)
|
||||
|
||||
1. Fails to Deliver (FTD)
|
||||
|
||||
2. Margin
|
||||
|
||||
3. Margin Calls
|
||||
|
||||
4. Margin Calls Who Calls Who
|
||||
|
||||
5. Short Squeeze
|
||||
|
||||
1 - STOCKS CONCEPTS
|
||||
|
||||
1.1 - Shares/Stock
|
||||
|
||||
[Shares](https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/difference-between-shares-and-stocks/#shares) are the smallest unit of a Companies [Stock](https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/difference-between-shares-and-stocks/#stocks)
|
||||
|
||||
- Stocks and Shares are often used interchangeably
|
||||
|
||||
- Technically "shares" would represent how many of a specific company's stock, where buying multiple "stocks" would main that shares of multiple company's were bought
|
||||
|
||||
- ex. I bought 2 stocks; 10 shares of GME, and 60 shares of AMC
|
||||
|
||||
- There are different [classes of shares](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/class.asp) that are distinguished on their voting rights, sales charges, and other factors
|
||||
|
||||
- Classes of shares have relatively complex dynamics, but I will not go further into them here, as it is not as relevant to GME/AMC
|
||||
|
||||
1\. 2 - Synthetic Shares
|
||||
|
||||
[Synthetic Shares](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/synthetic.asp) are the financial instruments that get produced through [Naked Shorting](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/n/nakedshorting.asp)
|
||||
|
||||
- Not to be confused with [synthetic options](https://www.investopedia.com/articles/optioninvestor/08/synthetic-options.asp) positions, which are legal/legitimate trade strategies that "simulate" the profits/losses as if the trader actually held those shares
|
||||
|
||||
- Synthetic shares entitle the owner to all of the same rights as an investor owning a non-synthetic share
|
||||
|
||||
- Cases where there is an excessive amount of synthetic shares point to the possibility that a stock is being abused or manipulated
|
||||
|
||||
- Cannot be easily measured due to limited public transparency at the Market Maker and Prime Broker level
|
||||
|
||||
1.3 - Outstanding Shares
|
||||
|
||||
The number of [Outstanding shares](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/o/outstandingshares.asp) encompasses the amount of issued shares held by all shareholders (both private and public)
|
||||
|
||||
- It is possible for there to be more shares outstanding through Naked shorting, which produces Synthetic shares
|
||||
|
||||
- The number of issued AND synthetic shares outstanding is very difficult to measure, as they are only recorded on the books of the market makers generating synthetic shares and the prime-brokers they trade through
|
||||
|
||||
- These parties are not incentivized to be transparent and actively obscure these numbers, as the practice of naked shorting excessively is fraudulent and illegal
|
||||
|
||||
1.4 - Restricted Shares
|
||||
|
||||
[Restricted shares](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/r/restrictedstock.asp) include the number of issued shares held by insiders of the company
|
||||
|
||||
- These shares are not publicly traded on the stock market
|
||||
|
||||
1.5 - The Float
|
||||
|
||||
[The Float](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/f/floating-stock.asp), or Floating Stock is the number of shares of stock that are available to be publicly traded (the number of [Outstanding shares](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/o/outstandingshares.asp) minus the amount of [Restricted shares](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/r/restrictedstock.asp) that are owned by insiders).
|
||||
|
||||
- In theory, the number of shares owned by [retail investors](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/r/retailinvestor.asp) and [institutional investors](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/i/institutionalinvestor.asp) should not exceed the float
|
||||
|
||||
- GME's float total is currently ~[56.89 Million](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/GME/key-statistics/) shares (as of 6/10/21)
|
||||
|
||||
1.6 - Shareholder Votes
|
||||
|
||||
[Annual General Meetings](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/a/agm.asp) basically is an annual meeting that allows shareholders to vote
|
||||
|
||||
- Votes are cast for things like
|
||||
|
||||
- Appointment of directors
|
||||
|
||||
- Executive compensation
|
||||
|
||||
- Dividend adjustments
|
||||
|
||||
1.7 - Shareholder Votes
|
||||
|
||||
[Shareholder Voting](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/v/votingright.asp) is a right extended to shareholders holding shares in the stock that entitle the owner to vote on cooperate policies
|
||||
|
||||
- Examples of what votes are cast for
|
||||
|
||||
- Appointment of directors
|
||||
|
||||
- Executive compensation
|
||||
|
||||
- Dividend adjustments
|
||||
|
||||
- [Overvoting (info in the middle of this page)](https://www.sec.gov/spotlight/proxyprocess/proxyvotingbrief.htm)
|
||||
|
||||
- When there is an overvote (like GME on 6/9), the votes will be normalized to a number based on the amount of shares that are held by DTC
|
||||
|
||||
- The official 8K form cannot be officially submitted with an overvote
|
||||
|
||||
- When this happens, the SEC and Company are notified
|
||||
|
||||
2 - TRADE POSITIONS
|
||||
|
||||
2.1 - Long Position - Buying/Selling Stock
|
||||
|
||||
When an investor buys a stock they are considered [long](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/l/long.asp) on it (this is the type of position most people associate with trading stocks)
|
||||
|
||||
- Not to be confused with a [long-term](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/l/longterminvestments.asp) investment
|
||||
|
||||
- In other words, holders of long positions have a positive number of shares
|
||||
|
||||
- To [close](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/closeposition.asp) a long position the owner would sell their shares on the stock market
|
||||
|
||||
Basic flow of obtaining/closing a long position is:
|
||||
|
||||
1. Buy the stock
|
||||
|
||||
2. Hold it until the price of it increases to a desired amount
|
||||
|
||||
3. Sell it for a profit
|
||||
|
||||
2.2 - Short Position - Shorting/Covering Stock
|
||||
|
||||
When a short seller shorts a stock they hold a [short position](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/short.asp) on the stock, or owe the party they borrowed from however many shares they shorted
|
||||
|
||||
- Not to be confused with a [short-term](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/shorterminvestments.asp) investment
|
||||
|
||||
- Investors with short positions effectively are *in debt* or *owe* the number of shares that they have shorted and can be considered *negative* on the stock
|
||||
|
||||
- To close that position, short-sellers must buy a number of shares equal to the size of their short position (buying to close a short position is known as [covering](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/shortcovering.asp))
|
||||
|
||||
- Short positions must be reported to regulators (unlike naked short sales)
|
||||
|
||||
Basic flow of obtaining/closing a short position:
|
||||
|
||||
1. Borrow a share owned by a lender
|
||||
|
||||
2. Sell the stock that was borrowed
|
||||
|
||||
3. Gaining the cash based on the price it was at the time it was "shorted"
|
||||
|
||||
4. Pay interest as a percentage of the stock's value
|
||||
|
||||
5. Since this is a percentage the cost of interest increases if the stock's value increases
|
||||
|
||||
6. Hold the position until the price has dropped to a desired price
|
||||
|
||||
7. Buy the stock on the open market
|
||||
|
||||
8. Ideally the stock is bought back at a lower price than originally borrowed for so the investor can pocket the difference
|
||||
|
||||
9. Return the share back to the lender
|
||||
|
||||
2.3 - Naked Short Position - Naked Shorting/Covering Stock
|
||||
|
||||
[Naked Shorting](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/n/nakedshorting.asp) effectively allows a Short Seller, working with a market maker, to short a stock using a without having a borrowed share like normal short selling
|
||||
|
||||
- Naked short sales do NOT have to be reported the same way as normal "Short Sales" and can be "hidden"
|
||||
|
||||
- Failures to Deliver the shares that were "fake-borrowed" to the buyer are on of the main ways to find evidence of naked shorting
|
||||
|
||||
- Due to a loophole and lack of oversight by regulation, Naked short selling can be used to manipulate the price of certain stocks
|
||||
|
||||
- This type of trade illegal outside of specific situations involving Market Makers
|
||||
|
||||
- Naked shorting was targeted for tighter regulation during the financial crisis of 2008 but enforcement has unfortunately not been effective in preventing it from manipulating the market
|
||||
|
||||
Basic flow of obtaining/closing a naked short position (kind of complex and involves two specific parties for 2 initial trades called a married put)
|
||||
|
||||
1. A Short Seller "A" buys 100 shares from a Market Maker "Z" who can technically sell them without locating them
|
||||
|
||||
1. Market Maker is Naked Shorting the stock, and the Short Seller is receiving 100 synthetic shares
|
||||
|
||||
2. Short Seller "A" now buys a [Put Option](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/p/putoption.asp) (1 options contract is worth 100 shares) from Market Maker "Z" who is the [writer](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/w/writing-an-option.asp) of the put
|
||||
|
||||
1. Writing/selling a put nets +100 shares to the Market Maker, which results in the -100 shares that were naked shorted to be neutralized, so the Market Maker no is at a neutral position (Market Makers generally try to remain net 0 on trades
|
||||
|
||||
2. Short Seller "A" now has 100 shares that can be short sold (they "borrowing" the synthetic shares the Market Maker effectively printed out of thin air), and one put contract that they can make money on as long as the price goes down
|
||||
|
||||
3. The steps or the short seller are basically the same as a normal short sale now (2.2 steps 2-8), however, interest from the Short seller does not need to be paid to a lender (no one is formally lending it)
|
||||
|
||||
1. The premium from the put being purchased from the Market Maker is how they benefit
|
||||
|
||||
2. Short Seller "A" now has a short position that they can cover simply by buying 100 shares, which would cancel out the synthetic short position
|
||||
|
||||
3 - MARKET PARTICIPANTS
|
||||
|
||||
3.1 - Retail Investors
|
||||
|
||||
- Retail Investors, also known as individual investors, are your average investors (not a company or organization)
|
||||
|
||||
- Referred to as the "Dumb Money" by Wall Street and the "professional" financial community
|
||||
|
||||
- Reddit communities
|
||||
|
||||
- Notable subreddits
|
||||
|
||||
- [r/Superstonk](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/)
|
||||
|
||||
- [r/gme](https://www.reddit.com/r/gme/)
|
||||
|
||||
- [r/amcstock](https://www.reddit.com/r/amcstock/)
|
||||
|
||||
- [r/wallstreetbets](https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/)
|
||||
|
||||
3.2 - Institutional Investors
|
||||
|
||||
[Institutional Investors](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/i/institutionalinvestor.asp) are organizations that invest on individuals' behalf
|
||||
|
||||
- Examples of Institutional Investors
|
||||
|
||||
- Endowment Funds
|
||||
|
||||
- Commercial Banks
|
||||
|
||||
- Mutual Funds
|
||||
|
||||
- Hedge funds
|
||||
|
||||
- Pension funds
|
||||
|
||||
- Insurance companies
|
||||
|
||||
3.3 - Market Makers
|
||||
|
||||
- [Market Makers](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/m/marketmaker.asp) are very different from "Investors" and are a bit harder to explain but basically are there to increase [liquidity](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/l/liquidity.asp) in the market
|
||||
|
||||
- When you buy and sell stock those trades are often going between you and a market maker
|
||||
|
||||
- Market makers get "special rules" that enable them to keep liquidity in the market when there is low liquidity
|
||||
|
||||
- Naked shorting is one of the options Market Makers have when navigating a trade that other investors do not have
|
||||
|
||||
3.4 - Prime Brokers
|
||||
|
||||
- A [Prime-Broker](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/p/primebrokerage.asp) is a bundled group of services that investment banks and other financial institutions offer to hedge funds and other large investment clients that need to be able to borrow securities or cash in order to engage in [netting](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/n/netting.asp) to achieve [absolute returns](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/a/absolutereturn.asp)
|
||||
|
||||
- [Broker](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/b/broker.asp) vs [Prime-Broker](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/p/primebrokerage.asp)
|
||||
|
||||
- A broker is an individual or entity that facilitates the purchase or sale of securities, such as the buying or selling of stocks and bonds for an investment account. A prime broker is a large institution that provides a multitude of services, from cash management to securities lending to risk management for other large institutions.
|
||||
|
||||
- [Market Makers](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/m/marketmaker.asp) like go through Prime Brokers
|
||||
|
||||
- The Prime Broker is who would Margin Call Shitadel if their short position gets too large or they bleed too much capital
|
||||
|
||||
3.5 - Clearinghouses
|
||||
|
||||
[Clearinghouses](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/clearinghouse.asp) are intermediaries between buyers and sellers
|
||||
|
||||
- Finalize transactions
|
||||
|
||||
- Regulates delivery of assets
|
||||
|
||||
- Reports on trading data
|
||||
|
||||
3.6* - MSM (Mainstream Media)
|
||||
|
||||
Though not a traditional market participant (as in they are not trade/financial entities) the [MSM](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/m/media_effect.asp) is worth noting due to its role in influencing the financial atmosphere and landscape
|
||||
|
||||
4 - IMPORTANT MARKET/TRADE MECHANICS (MOASS)
|
||||
|
||||
4.1 - Failures to Deliver (FTD)
|
||||
|
||||
- [FTDs](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/f/failuretodeliver.asp) occur when a buyer of a stock ends up not having the money to purchase the stock that they traded for OR, when a short seller does not own the stock at the time of settlement
|
||||
|
||||
- FTDs are one of the main check-balances to naked shorting, so very high amounts of Failures to Deliver are indicative of this
|
||||
|
||||
- Spoiler: GME and AMC have tons of FTDs reported
|
||||
|
||||
4.2 - Margin
|
||||
|
||||
- [Margin](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/m/margin.asp) is basically credit that that an investor can use to buy more stock
|
||||
|
||||
- When you buy on margin you must stake the assets you have already purchased with your own cash as collateral
|
||||
|
||||
- The amount of Margin you can have depends on the value of your collateral
|
||||
|
||||
- The value of your collateral and cash but meet the margin requirements in order to continue to buy on margin
|
||||
|
||||
- Keep in mind the value of your collateral can change if the price goes up or down and if the value of your collateral/cash drops below the margin requirement you will received a [Margin Call](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/m/margincall.asp) Another way to think about it:
|
||||
|
||||
1. Imagine I have $1,000 in stock
|
||||
|
||||
2. You obtain a personal loan for another $1000
|
||||
|
||||
3. To get the credit you stake your $1000 in stock (if you default it goes to the lender to cover your debt)
|
||||
|
||||
4. You buy $1000 more stock with that loan (you now own $2000 in stocks, half in cash half on margin)
|
||||
|
||||
5. You will pay interest on the $1000 on margin but if your investment makes more money than the interest then you are still profiting
|
||||
|
||||
6. If your investment turns bad (lets say the price of your stock falls 50% and you are left with $1000) your lender can forcibly close out your positions (everything you bought in cash and staked as collateral along with what you bought on margin so that they can get the $1000 they loaned you back)
|
||||
|
||||
4.3 - Margin Call
|
||||
|
||||
- A Margin Call is a notice indicating you have a specific amount of time to deposit enough of your own funds to meet your margin requirement (if you cannot meet the requirement the lender is entitled to sell all of your holdings to recover what you borrowed
|
||||
|
||||
Margin Examples:
|
||||
|
||||
> This is a slightly complicated scenario that can be a little hard to follow. Give it a few reads if it doesn't make sense the first time, but basically, Margin is a credit line that you can use to buy more assets (effectively a loan backed by collateral and cash in your own account). If you buy assets with it, you have to pay back what you borrowed, whether the value of your investment goes up or down (if the investment goes up in value, you make more than you normally would, but if the investment goes down in value, you lose more than you otherwise would have without margin).
|
||||
>
|
||||
> This gets even more (or less maybe) complicated when you have short positions AND long positions, like most institutional investors. To have short positions, I still need to have margin, but I do not need to use it to buy stocks, It can act as a buffer if I have a short position on a stock that is increasing in value (with a short position, if the price of something I short goes up, I am losing money), and if it gets too high, it can run against my margin line, causing a margin call.
|
||||
|
||||
GAIN: Long Positions
|
||||
|
||||
1. Imagine I have $1000 in stock XXX (let's say 10 shares worth $100 each)
|
||||
|
||||
2. My broker may lend me margin credit line equal to the value of my assets (so $1000 in margin), and let's say they give me a margin requirement of $800, meaning that the value of my non-margin assets (the ones I bought with my money) must be above $800 in order to keep using margin (so as long as stock XXX stays above $80 a share, then I will not get a margin call for being below the requirement)
|
||||
|
||||
3. I then choose to use the margin, buying 10 more shares of stock XXX for $100 each, so I now have 20 shares of stock XXX, valued at 100$ a piece
|
||||
|
||||
4. If the price of stock XXX goes up to %25 per share, and I sell all 20 shares, I just profited $500 (+$25 on 20 shares)
|
||||
|
||||
1. In this case, closing the position clears me from the margin debt, as I am no longer using it in an open position
|
||||
|
||||
2. If I had not used margin, I would have only walked away with $250 in profit ($25 per share on 10 shares), but instead I made $500, and paid back the credit, plus a little bit of interest.
|
||||
|
||||
5. Yay.
|
||||
|
||||
LOSS: Long Positions
|
||||
|
||||
1. Imagine I have $1000 in stock XXX (let's say 10 shares worth $100 each)
|
||||
|
||||
2. My broker may lend me margin credit line equal to the value of my assets (so $1000 in margin), and let's say they give me a margin requirement of $800, meaning that the value of my non-margin assets (the ones I bought with my money) must be above $800 in order to keep using margin (so as long as stock XXX stays above $80 a share, then I will not get a margin call for being below the requirement)
|
||||
|
||||
3. I then choose to use the margin, buying 10 more shares of stock XXX for $100 each, so I now have 20 shares of stock XXX, valued at 100$ a piece
|
||||
|
||||
4. If the price of stock XXX goes down %25, bringing the value per share down to $75 a share, the value of my total position is now $1500, and the value of my non-margin assets is $750, which is below the margin requirement (keep in mind, I borrowed $1000, so that is still the amount I have to pay back)
|
||||
|
||||
5. My lender will give me a margin call, indicating I have two business days to deposit 50$ into my account in order to meet the margin requirement
|
||||
|
||||
1. If I have the cash to deposit the extra $50 would take my assets to $800 ($750 in stock XXX + 50$ cash)
|
||||
|
||||
1. If the price of stock XXX recovered to above $80 per share, it could also satisfy the requirement
|
||||
|
||||
2. If I do not have the cash to deposit, then I am in trouble, as after two days, they are allowed to liquidate (sell) the assets I bought with my own money, as well as the assets I bought on margin
|
||||
|
||||
1. Let's say this happens, all my borrowed assets are sold first to cover my $1000 loan (since the price of stock XXX was only $750, it only covers $750 of my $1000 margin line
|
||||
|
||||
2. I now have $750 left in assets of Stock X, but I still owe money from margin, so my lender is entitled to sell $250 work of my shares in order to get their full $1000 back
|
||||
|
||||
3. I am now left with $500 total ($750 in 10 shares of stock XXX - $250)
|
||||
|
||||
6. Not Yay
|
||||
|
||||
LOSS: Short and Long Positions
|
||||
|
||||
THIS IS THE RELEVANT ONE TO GME/AMC
|
||||
|
||||
1. Imagine I have $1000 in stock XXX (let's say 10 shares worth $100 each)
|
||||
|
||||
2. My broker may lend me margin credit line equal to the value of my assets (so $1000 in margin), and let's say they give me a margin requirement of $800, meaning that the value of my non-margin assets (the ones I bought with my money) must be above $800 in order to keep using margin
|
||||
|
||||
3. Instead of using the margin to buy more, I instead short 10 shares of stock YYY which is at $50 a share currently (giving me $500 in extra cash), which I use to buy 5 more shares of stock X
|
||||
|
||||
1. I am now long 15 shares of stock XXX valued at $1500 and short 10 shares of stock YYY valued at -$500 (negative $500) for a net value of $1000
|
||||
|
||||
2. No margin is actively committed to open positions, and I am still using my $1000
|
||||
|
||||
4. Now, lets say a short squeeze happens involving stock Y, causing the price to skyrocket to $200 per share
|
||||
|
||||
1. My short position is now -$2000 (10 shares of -$200 each)
|
||||
|
||||
5. My net account value is now $-500 ($1500 - $2000) which is now using my margin, and because my account's value is no longer above $800, I no longer meet margin requirements so I get a margin call
|
||||
|
||||
6. If I cannot balance my account, the lender will liquidate my $1500 in stock XXX in order to pay the -$2000 I owe, leaving me with -$500 left in debt
|
||||
|
||||
1. I have now defaulted, as I cannot pay the $500
|
||||
|
||||
7. Now that I have defaulted, the lender who gave me margin owns my short positions, meaning they are now short whatever was left
|
||||
|
||||
1. The lender can now navigate the short positions however they want (they can hold them and hope the price goes down, and cover to close them, or they can close them immediately, costing them the whole $500 I still owed)
|
||||
|
||||
8. GUH! (Translation if you are not WSB: Ah @#$%)
|
||||
|
||||
4.4 - Margin Calls Who Calls Who
|
||||
|
||||
- Margin calls happen at levels 1-4 when the cell to the left cannot meet margin requirements
|
||||
|
||||
- Broker Margin Calls Retail Traders
|
||||
|
||||
- Prime Brokers Margin Call Brokers, Hedge Funds, and Market Makers
|
||||
|
||||
- The NSCC Margin Calls Prime Brokers
|
||||
|
||||
- Defaults roll up left to right
|
||||
|
||||
- If Retail Trader defaults, Broker must take on their leftover positions
|
||||
|
||||
- If Broker, Hedge Fund, or Market Maker defaults, the Prime Broker must take on their leftover positions
|
||||
|
||||
- If Prime Broker Defaults, the NSCC must take on Position
|
||||
|
||||
- If the NSCC Defaults, the Fed must take on the position
|
||||
|
||||
| Level 1 | Level 2 | Level 3 | Level 4 | Level 4 |
|
||||
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
|
||||
| Retail Trader | Broker | Prime Broker | NSCC (DTCC) | Fed (JPOW) |
|
||||
| x | Market Maker | Prime Broker | NSCC (DTCC) | Fed (JPOW) |
|
||||
| x | Hedge Fund | Prime Broker | NSCC (DTCC) | Fed (JPOW) |
|
||||
|
||||
4.5 - Short Squeeze
|
||||
|
||||
- A [Short Squeeze](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/shortsqueeze.asp) is a market event that occurs when there is a large short position on a stock whose price rapidly increases higher than expected, normally due to a catalyst
|
||||
|
||||
- During the short squeeze, the losses of those who have short positions continue to increase higher it goes
|
||||
|
||||
- Since they owe shares, the cost to cover their position increases depending on how high the price goes (there is theoretically no limit on how high a stock can go)
|
||||
|
||||
- As market participants who are short on the stock buy to cover, supply decreases and demand increases, causing the price to increase even more rapidly
|
||||
|
||||
- While short sellers are scrambling to cover their positions, the rapid price change may entice investors who are not short on the stock to buy it in order to make a quick profit
|
||||
|
||||
- Again, lowering supply and increasing demand
|
||||
|
||||
VI. The Mother of All Short Squeezes (MOASS)
|
||||
|
||||
Explanation
|
||||
|
||||
Now that we have gone through the many important terms, we can get to the theory behind MOASS.
|
||||
|
||||
Due excessive short-selling and naked shorting of GME by certain market participants (primarily large hedge funds and market makers), retail investors and long institutional investors collectively own a number of shares that exceeds the the float. The amount of shares that are currently owned is theorized to range roughly between 200%-400% of the float if not more, meaning that 100%-300% of the float has a corresponding short position (mostly naked shorts). For context, most stocks generally have around 1% Short Interest, and 10%-20% short interest is considered to be excessive, let alone over 100% of it.
|
||||
|
||||
Short sellers must eventually close, or cover, their short position
|
||||
|
||||
- The only way to do that is to buy the shares owned by the investors who are long
|
||||
|
||||
- in the meantime Short-sellers are paying interest on that short position until it is closed proportional to the cost of the shares, which bleeds their capital over time
|
||||
|
||||
- Unfortunately for the short sellers, the owners of the shares ARE NOT obligated to sell their shares.
|
||||
|
||||
- The short-sellers, however, ARE obligated to buy in order to close their position (or else keep paying interest)
|
||||
|
||||
So what happens if no one is selling the shares they are "long" on, but short sellers need to buy them?
|
||||
|
||||
- Supply and Demand
|
||||
|
||||
- With very little supply and high demand, the price of a stock can increase far beyond its fundamental value
|
||||
|
||||
- If short sellers receive a margin call due to no longer meeting their margin requirement and are unable to meet it in time, their assets will be forcibly liquidated by their lender in order to pay back the margin, as well as close out the position if the borrower defaults
|
||||
|
||||
If you are wondering why an organization would abusively short a stock like this if they eventually have to cover their positions:
|
||||
|
||||
- If a company goes bankrupt or gets delisted from the stock market:
|
||||
|
||||
- The short sellers DO NOT have to close the position
|
||||
|
||||
- All of the proceeds from the short sale effectively disappear from their books
|
||||
|
||||
- They do not even have to pay taxes on this profit
|
||||
|
||||
Short positions amount to the total number of long positions minus the float, meaning (based on the theorized range) that somewhere between ~56-170 Million shares will need to be bought in order to close all short positions
|
||||
|
||||
- It is expected that the members with short positions (hedge funds and market makers who have been naked shorting the stock) will be unable to cover their short positions, resulting in a situation where their lenders, all the way up to the clearinghouse (DTCC) will have to sort out the positions
|
||||
|
||||
- If the DTCC/NSCC is forced to unwind the positions, it is widely believed that they will rapidly cover short positions at whatever price they are available for (this is how their systems are said to handle a member default), liquidating whatever assets are necessary from the defaulting member
|
||||
|
||||
Consideration
|
||||
|
||||
This is a totally unprecedented situation, so, in truth, there is a lot of uncertainty around what wind-down will look like once this gets to the Prime Brokers (major banks) and NSCC, as well as around how high the price peak will reach. There is a real risk of broad negative impact across the entire market because of this and the current Repo Rates and margin debt.
|
||||
|
||||
A few things I think are safe to assume are:
|
||||
|
||||
- Before anything happens that will cap or negatively affect the MOASS, all of the Hedge Funds and Market Makers who conspired to manipulate the market will likely have been bankrupted and eliminated from the market landscape by then
|
||||
|
||||
- Prime Brokers will have been dealt a massive blow (like Credit Suisse after Archegos Collapse by way worse) that should hopefully ensure regulators tie up every loophole that was exploited to manipulate the market and harm it
|
||||
|
||||
- The peak will reach higher than any other short squeeze in history and will likely never be beaten in the future (EVER)
|
||||
|
||||
VII. Final thoughts...
|
||||
|
||||
This is the GME MOASS thesis. GME is a stock that stands to hit an unprecedented price point due to the fact that manipulators of the market have failed to bankrupt GameStop thanks in huge part to [the Legendary Keith Gill AKA u/DeepFuckingValue](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Keith_Gill), [Ryan Cohen](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ryan_Cohen), [Michael Burry](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Michael_Burry), and all of the GME investors who took part in this saga. It may not be today, this week, or even this month, but one day soon, these toxic participants have no choice but to buy the stock to close out their short positions.
|
||||
|
||||
In some schools of thought, it is thought that these participants over-estimated how "reasonable" retail investors can be (who could be dumb enough to hold a stock as it fell from almost $500 to $40?). In truth, these manipulators didn't understand the demographic they were fighting with. Gamers are some of the most stubborn people on the planet. These are individuals who will sink tens of thousands of hours into the same video game because "they just like it". Well, "we like the stock", and to us, the adversaries on Wall Street just are just another "boss". We may have needed to retry a couple times, but we always win eventually. On top of that, they pissed off reddit, and under no circumstances, should you ever piss off reddit.
|
||||
|
||||
At this point, if you are still reading this, know that it is up to you to decide your next move, whether that is to do some due diligence of your own, walk away, or say screw it and buy a few (or a lot of) shares just in case we are right. Many of us have set our floor (minimum amount of acceptable gains) at $20,000,000 per share, and you might think that is crazy, but in truth, we know we can pick our own price if we hold long enough. We don't care if anyone else buys or not, because we know the outcome is inevitable. Time is running out for the toxic market participants involved, and even the news can't hide that we are on the brink of a massive market event that will ripple through the entire global financial system, and we will probably never see an event like this again in our lifetime.
|
||||
|
||||
This is a fight Wall Street, Shitadel, Melvin Capital, and ever other toxic party is not going to win against the "dumb money". Chances are this will truly be "THE MOASS", meaning there will never be another like it in our lifetime (or ever). While the conditions in play (the ability for big money to brutally manipulate the market) enabled what may end up being the greatest transfer of wealth in history, actual reformation to prevent a landscape like this from forming again is probably best long term (I say this as a pragmatist, and am honestly very far from an idealist). If you want to influence reform, Buy, Hold, Vote. If you are just here for the tendies, Buy, Hold, Vote.
|
||||
|
||||
VIII. TL;DR
|
||||
|
||||
1. Toxic Market Participants have built up massive [short positions](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/short.asp) made through [Naked Shorting](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/n/nakedshorting.asp)
|
||||
|
||||
2. Retail caught on to this strategy and discovered it can backfire if the company being shorted does not go bankrupt, especially if shares are bought and held indefinitely
|
||||
|
||||
3. Rules and regulations have implemented by the DTCC and its subsidiaries have been geared towards preventing market collapse, as well as to minimize the ability to perform illegal trades (naked shorting)
|
||||
|
||||
4. The SEC is also doing more to enforce compliance with the "rules"
|
||||
|
||||
5. The manipulators are at the mercy of a vicious trade cycle (t+21 FTD Cycle) that is forcing those with naked short positions to perform actions to [cover](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/shortcovering.asp) (buy back shares that are short), or risk regulatory consequences
|
||||
|
||||
6. This act of rapid covering drives up the price, making it more expensive to cover during the next cycle if the share price continues to increase week over week
|
||||
|
||||
7. Eventually, the prices of GME will get so high that prime brokers/clearing houses will have no choice but to [Margin Call](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/m/margincall.asp) these participants which most likely will not be affordable due to the nature of [Short Squeezes](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/shortsqueeze.asp), causing them to default
|
||||
|
||||
8. The [Prime-Brokers](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/p/primebrokerage.asp) will then take on the position, and if the Prime Brokers cannot cover them and also defaults, the NSCC will be next to attempt to settle all positions left over based on their [Recovery and Wind-down Plan (p42)](https://www.dtcc.com/~/media/Files/Downloads/legal/policy-and-compliance/NSCC_Disclosure_Framework.pdf)
|
||||
|
||||
9. If NSCC cannot afford to close everything with the money reserved for this type of situation, they the Fed must navigate the remaining positions (potentially via printing money/bailout)
|
||||
|
||||
IX. STILL TL;DR
|
||||
|
||||
Margin Calls happen across the market and force all market participants with short positions in GME to cover or go bankrupt if they cannot afford to. The NSCC's systems that will settle positions after mass defaults liquidates all short hedge funds and covers as much GME as it can. If the NSCC cannot pay everything, it fails up to the Fed and JPOW to print money to settle the trades.
|
||||
|
||||
X. Hedgies, velkommen til helvete. Vi kommer for tårene dine.
|
||||
|
||||
START EDITS LOG edit: 6/10/21 12:28PM ET Added google drive link but switched with one drive so it wouldn't display who is looking at the file (unless they are in incognito)
|
||||
|
||||
edit: 6/10/21 1:08PM ET Updated link to a onedrive anonymously shared link (shouldn't show who is viewing it, but you might consider accessing the link via an incognito window). <https://onedrive.live.com/?authkey=%21AF%2D4Ar3%2DZkRC6ZE&cid=A204BFD088578646&id=A204BFD088578646%21106&parId=A204BFD088578646%21103&o=OneUp>
|
||||
|
||||
edit: 6/10/21 1:51PM ET Minor typo (extra bullet). Removed from 3.4 (prime brokers).
|
||||
|
||||
edit: 6/10/21 2:10PM ET IMPORTANT NOTE - Feel free to share and distribute as appropriate if you feel there is value in doing so (and obviously only if you are comfortable doing so). Like I said, I don't care about credit, but I do care about getting exposure of GME, naked shorting, and the manipulation in the market. We have been getting hit with shills and FUD inside and outside the community courtesy of the SHF's tactics. Getting the good information we have out (passively, I am not saying to push it on people or to be intrusive) is one of the few tactics we have against the SHFs outside of 💎🙌. They weaponized social media and MSM; so can we (but with DD, not shilling and perpetuating FUD).
|
||||
|
||||
END EDITS LOG
|
243
DD/2021-06-30-The-Engame-Connecting-the-Dots.md
Normal file
243
DD/2021-06-30-The-Engame-Connecting-the-Dots.md
Normal file
@ -0,0 +1,243 @@
|
||||
||The Endgame ||- connecting the dots.
|
||||
======================================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/flaming_pope](https://www.reddit.com/user/flaming_pope/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/ob9s4s/the_endgame_connecting_the_dots/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
[DD 👨🔬](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22DD%20%F0%9F%91%A8%E2%80%8D%F0%9F%94%AC%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/plzxtv2zqh871.jpg?width=1112&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=2ebb298b1ec7f8ca6b1b36b3f632fffa743f008e)
|
||||
|
||||
It's all coming together!
|
||||
|
||||
Here I try to combine all the great DD found here on this sub, and try to distill the final endgame from the available DD.
|
||||
|
||||
I'm also releasing this at a point when it's too late for shorts, and it's gameover. If I'm wrong then this DD is meaningless. If I'm right, shorts are strapped into final destination while a dental clairvoyant describes their death to them in clear detail.
|
||||
|
||||
TLDR;
|
||||
|
||||
Edit: ETF SHORTING is the main point of this post, and more attention needs to be placed there. NOT crypt0 - it's a sidepoint. Anyone bringing up excess attention to the sidepoint should have their post history checked for shill bias.
|
||||
|
||||
- Fatal mistake by shorts on 6-9-2021 when GME's ETF's were all shorted at once. ETF's work on T+6 settlement.
|
||||
|
||||
- Doesn't matter what shorts do, checkmate was set following completion of 5 million share offering during earnings call.
|
||||
|
||||
- ~~Cypto announcement will be the match.~~ T+35 FTDs will be the Fuel. (speculation, sidepoint)
|
||||
|
||||
- GME Q2 ends Aug-1, need more wrinkles thinking about this than just me.
|
||||
|
||||
- ETFs containing GME (ETFGME) will rocket, all other ETFs with overlap with ETFGMEs will crater.
|
||||
|
||||
- If you have wallet already, set aside digital currency in preperation to remove Gamecoin from circulation as soon as it launches (no collusion, also it's just good to be first)
|
||||
|
||||
- Kenny/Citadel may just be the fall guy, I speculate it's much deeper than just their figurehead.
|
||||
|
||||
//
|
||||
|
||||
Preface
|
||||
|
||||
I'm not a financial advisor. Everything stated here should be taken as speculation. As a matter of fact I'm actually down like 20K in paper losses. If anything do the opposite of what I'm doing - or don't lol. Simply put I'm a nobody, with dreams of putting an end to this financial slavery.
|
||||
|
||||
For the most part most of this should be read in order. If you need to go back to read up on some of the sub topic go ahead - time is mostly on YOUR side.
|
||||
|
||||
This DD is certainly rushed, while building up a multi-month position and there's probably a TON of spelling and grammer mistakes throughout. So do forgive this once dropped as a baby Ape. With that out of the way, here's a summary of what I've pieced together thanks to this great community, and special users discussed below. If you keep reading till the end, there's also a speculative arguement to be had with social media and the rest.
|
||||
|
||||
//
|
||||
|
||||
Acronym Index and Glossary (copied over from Anon's DD for quick reference):
|
||||
|
||||
Because I always wish the SEC included these, for the Fed if nothing else
|
||||
|
||||
ETF - Exchange-Traded-Fund - Simply put, ETFs are a hybrid between funds and stocks. They, like any fund, hold some portfolio of securities. And like any stock, they trade as shares on open exchanges. For example, SPY is an ETF with a portfolio designed to mimic the S&P 500 index.
|
||||
|
||||
ETFGME - ETFs containing GME
|
||||
|
||||
FTD - Failure-to-Deliver - after the sale of a security, the seller (believe it or not) has 3 days to deliver the security to the buyer, otherwise the share is deemed failed-to-deliver - a FTD.
|
||||
|
||||
AP - Authorized Participant - "An authorized participant is an organization that has the right to create and redeem shares of an exchange traded fund (ETF)....When there is a shortage of ETF shares in the market, authorized participants can make more. Conversely, authorized participants will reduce ETF shares in circulation when the price of the ETF is lower than the price of the underlying shares. That can be done with the creation and redemption mechanism that keeps the price of an ETF aligned with its underlying net asset value (NAV)."
|
||||
|
||||
MM - Market Maker - Market Makers, very generally, oversee markets and quote bid/ask prices to create a spread. They stand ready to buy or sell in their market, and they have algorithms coded to hedge these transactions and profit from arbitrage along the way.
|
||||
|
||||
HF(s) - Hedge fund(s)
|
||||
|
||||
//
|
||||
|
||||
THE SHOULDERS OF GIANTS - REQUIRED READING.
|
||||
|
||||
Part 1: The FTD Cycle.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/s3odahn1rh871.png?width=616&format=png&auto=webp&s=8c3f53e1404d686cf2a0cbae90e06d873e4d0a94)
|
||||
|
||||
Not enough credit can be given to [u/dentisttft](https://www.reddit.com/u/dentisttft/) and his post detailing the T+35 FTD cycle, SLD periods, and how it relates to volatility in GME.
|
||||
|
||||
This is a must read to understand the bigger picture, and give this guy more awards.
|
||||
|
||||
<https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/o155a6/t35_is_the_one_true_cycle_evidence_to_back_my/>
|
||||
|
||||
Main take aways:
|
||||
|
||||
- T+21 are approximations of T+35's low liquidity periods.
|
||||
|
||||
- FTDs are created T+#settlement trading days. For regular naked shorting this is T+2. (more on settlement dates later)
|
||||
|
||||
- MM's wait to cover to attempt to maximize their profits.
|
||||
|
||||
- 34 calendar days after the generation of an FTD, MM's must cover. (T+35 days if you count day of FTD creation)
|
||||
|
||||
Part 2: Shorting through ETF's
|
||||
|
||||
In a mysterious fashion, a now deleted user [/u/leavemeanon](https://www.reddit.com/u/leavemeanon/) (Anon) dropped the mother of all DD's detailing how MMs and HFs can use ETF's to short a stock.
|
||||
|
||||
There's been numerous references by Gamestop to this user, but nothing else is known about [/u/leavemeanon](https://www.reddit.com/u/leavemeanon/) or his real origins.
|
||||
|
||||
Though the original user and posts are gone, [u/VoxUmbra](https://www.reddit.com/u/VoxUmbra/) was nice enough to find and upload an archive of [/u/leavemeanon](https://www.reddit.com/u/leavemeanon/)'s posts.
|
||||
|
||||
Read all 3 parts.
|
||||
|
||||
<https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nt8ot8/rip_uleavemeanon_where_are_the_shares_part_1/?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share>
|
||||
|
||||
Main take aways:
|
||||
|
||||
- APs and MM can short securities by selling ETFs without finding underlying shares to create said ETF. Like selling a fruit basket, but promising the fruit later.
|
||||
|
||||
- This is made possible due to a T+6 settlement of ETFs, and another securties act 1933 loophole allowing OFF-THE-BOOKS record keeping if you decompose an ETF. These shorts are naked and untracked by SI%.
|
||||
|
||||
- Insitutions can theoretically cycle ETFs every 6 days to hide shorts indefinitely, while being eaten alive by interest and premium.
|
||||
|
||||
- ETFs alone hold nearly the entire float of GME on their own without a single share of retail.
|
||||
|
||||
Part 3: Hints at Overvote.
|
||||
|
||||
The single greatest piece of direct evidence of an overvote is this rounding error found by [u/Rimigo42](https://www.reddit.com/u/Rimigo42/)
|
||||
|
||||
<https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/comments/nw9sl1/math_error_in_8k_filing_possible_a_typo_that/>
|
||||
|
||||
Other hints at overvoting:
|
||||
|
||||
<https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nx9awr/there_was_an_overvote_the_votes_were_trimmed_to/>
|
||||
|
||||
<https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nw8ak8/you_cant_report_an_overvote_on_an_8k_pass_it_on/>
|
||||
|
||||
Main take aways:
|
||||
|
||||
- Rounding error indicates votes ARE trimmed.
|
||||
|
||||
- Trimming is *typically* reserved for overvotes.
|
||||
|
||||
Part 4: Regulation and recent changes to chess board.
|
||||
|
||||
<https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/o57231/dtcc_icc_occ_nscc_have_covered_their_assess/>
|
||||
|
||||
Main take aways:
|
||||
|
||||
- 002 makes everyday an SLR period, and no longer on a rolling cycle. (Added to federal registar, now official)
|
||||
|
||||
- Rest are generally there to protect the core DTCC, not malicious shorting HFs.
|
||||
|
||||
//
|
||||
|
||||
MOASS
|
||||
|
||||
Warning this is kinda datey, no promises. You gotta keep up the hype though, Hedge funds are hoping to drag this out hoping to collect enough option premium from retail to cover their losses. Time is mostly on our side (months), but wait too long and they WILL defuse the situation by eating retail premium.
|
||||
|
||||
Ok lets start. We all know GME has been in a fight with predatory trading practices for awhile now. To the extent we find ourselves at the very beginnings of a short squeeze. We know this thanks to the hard work of [u/dentisttft](https://www.reddit.com/u/dentisttft/) who broke the FTD code as indicated above. However, last month the publicly known FTDs HAVE died down quite a bit as indicated on SEC's website. I use the word publicily here because as Anon has pointed out, many naked shorts can be hidden through the use of ETFs - more on that later.
|
||||
|
||||
Lets first take a look at the events of 6-9-2021, the day prior to ShareHolder's Meeting. It is a not a fond memory for many apes. The 5 million share offering did hurt the price after the announcement, but what really made things bad at the time was the intentional capitulation /short ladder BEFORE the meeting by shorts causing a 10% decrease even before GME tried raising capital - THIS IS WHY WE HOLD, money going to hedgies rather than the company that needs it!.
|
||||
|
||||
As pointed out by ZION LION [u/ZIONLIO29288757](https://www.reddit.com/u/ZIONLIO29288757/) on twitter here:
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/00nkii14rh871.png?width=589&format=png&auto=webp&s=faecc15e333fa1b0678d6811bc7ae57a8071a0ca)
|
||||
|
||||
Many of ETF were sold short. What does this mean from the perspective of MOASS? Well a few things.
|
||||
|
||||
As Anon explained: ETFs can be unpacked to retreive the shares inside. What I suspect happened are that MM and other HFs that knew an offering was going to take place, purchased a bunch of ETFGMEs while simutaneously shorting GME. MMs(et al.) can later unpack ETFGMEs to cover their shorts. But this leaves a question where are the naked shorts?
|
||||
|
||||
Well Anon answered that too. Shorts created by selling uncovered ETFs do NOT have to be reported unless they turn into FTDs at T+6 due to a loophole in the Securities Act of 1933. However, you can cover your prior naked short by buying yet another ETFGME and unpacking it, thus passing the naked short down the line to the next AP that created the uncovered ETF - and best of all, not report it to anyone. This is equivalent to selling empty fruit baskets without the fruit, and covering said basket with another empty basket every 6 days. ETFGMEs holders are owed GME shares.
|
||||
|
||||
And as Anon has pointed out, GME's entire float is already locked within ETF shares without counting a single retail share. Considering that at the same time we apes also hold the near entirety of the float back in April 15th, we know this based off GME's 8-K filing. There is undeniabily, at a minimum 1x float worth of GME naked shorts floating around (even excluding overvote scenario). the MOASS will be a financial lesson taught to your grandchildren for decades to come (if you decide to have them). This doesn't even take into account an overvote, nor possibility of any naked shorts overseas due to different reporting regulations overseas. Buckle Up.
|
||||
|
||||
The fatal moves of 6-9-2021:
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/7ljlofc5rh871.png?width=1349&format=png&auto=webp&s=473eb82eb33834db86f30bcd09b95c6249bff9ff)
|
||||
|
||||
This was delta neutral MM's shorting GME and covering their shorts almost immediately by buying ETFGMEs, and passing the naked GME short onto the ETFGME creator - the AP's (think Citadel et al.). It would become near impossible to hide the FTDs from the T+6 settlement, as naked shorts would preoccupy the next ETF. Looking at settlement, FTDs from 6-9-2021's ETFGME short should occur on 6-17-2021.
|
||||
|
||||
The following day on 6-10-2021, we all remember was the day of the combined 10% + 10% drop. The pre-dilution 10% drop was the initial MM short + covering, the next drop however was all AP's (Citadel et al.) plus the added selling pressure by 5 million share dilution. Effectively GME was shorted twice by AP's, and probably covered half by the drop. Leading me to think AP's and Short HFs have net added to their short positions since earnings. This is well suported by the daily short volume on GME being greater than 50%. Because 6-10's were normal shorts - FTDs would be created on 6-14-2021. This coordinated (COLLUSION) attack by combined MM's and AP's was likely aimed at full capitulation, they FAILED and all they did was use up a lot of their firepower, further increased their short position, and set the floor we are trading now.
|
||||
|
||||
Why these dates are important. FTD filings and SEC reports occur on the 14th, and last day of the month, meaning we will only see at most HALF of total shorts reported this Wednesday 6-30-2021. Keep that in mind, because we'll be see increasing GME FTDs through this month's report on last month's FTD activities.
|
||||
|
||||
| Short Type | Settlement | GME occurrence | FTD creation | SEC reports | T+35 covering |
|
||||
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
|
||||
| Naked ETF shorting | T+6 trading | 06/09/21 | 06/17/21 | 07/15/21 | 07/21/21 |
|
||||
| Naked Stock Shorting | T+2 trading | 06/10/21 | 06/14/21 | 06/30/21 | 07/18/21 |
|
||||
|
||||
SEC report dates here:
|
||||
|
||||
<https://www.sec.gov/data/foiadocsfailsdatahtm>
|
||||
|
||||
This will start the ball rolling as long HFs will be watching the FTDs. A sizable increase in FTDs would green light Long HFs to start adding a ton of buying pressure. Remember T+21 is a FUD narrative (only an approximation on SLR and the real T+35, which is now patched with DTCC-002). This will continue throughout most of July, because of DTCC-002 SLR is everyday.
|
||||
|
||||
I was able to pull the FTD data from today, so if you turn your attention here, you'll can see the FTD uptick.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/1zg9gg67rh871.png?width=733&format=png&auto=webp&s=5d2597bdf74cb7ed123234572deb8439c656f566)
|
||||
|
||||
Another key is concentrated buying pressure - because of how the US markets are constructed. Long play BS (the way it's portrayed) on [r/superstonk](https://www.reddit.com/r/superstonk/) is by far some of the worst FUD here, not just because it's bad investment advice, but because it is a pathologically lazy statement for people thinking the price will climb slowly to millions over their lifetime, and they can get in 2 months from now and expect the price to still be at $200. Think of this from the FTD POV, the only way to increase FTDs is concentrated buying pressure. This is a battle against market manipulation, if shorts win the price will fall and will never make it's way back up because they will reinforce a ceiling by buying and controlling the float themselves, but a retail win will cement a higher floor as the FTD bug provides a floor that locks wealth in the market and makes it hard for new shorts to push the price down. Someone do a seperate DD on this! It is in Gamestop's best interest for retail win as it would mean more capital in the long term. HFs manipulate and pull liquidity away during capital raises, making it hard and even costly to raise capital - Retail has no such problem.
|
||||
|
||||
//
|
||||
|
||||
SPECULATIVE SOCIAL REASONING FOR MOASS AND HYPE
|
||||
|
||||
Interestingly I believe there's a good chance Ryan Cohen is going to trigger the MOASS with the announcement of a Gamecoin (speculation, sidepoint). As prior posts have pointed out, there's a hidden launch date hardcoded to 7-14-21. There's alot of good DD on this topic, mainly because most of the shills don't actually know enough about the topic (shill lackey). Generally, at the launch of digital coins, either they are bought at open market immediately or they are sold prior to stakers who then sell on the open market.
|
||||
|
||||
Digital currency is unique amongst all securities, in that it's value is driven purely by supply and demand. Given a fair exchange without excess leverage, the price of the currency is dictated by the holder, where it should be.
|
||||
|
||||
This means it pays to be first buyer of any Gamestop coin, especially if it's tied to your GME shares. To be first you need to have funds readily available for trading to purchase the moment any potential Gamecoin hits the market. Unfortunately, anyone that's tried digital currency knows there's typically a waiting period on USD funds. This can be bypassed by having a digital wallet with funds ready to go to quickly send funds to Gamecoin's host exchange. So heads up ^^ here.
|
||||
|
||||
Edit, to be clear: GME is the play. Heads up is referring IF you already have a wallet.
|
||||
|
||||
If a Gamecoin is released, you can be dam sure the Gamecoin price will skyrocket (As any holder of shorts will need to pay this coin to shareholders). However, it would make very little sense to allow the coin to be sold first to the open market if it's first being distributed as a dividend. Though ultimately this is a mute point in the case of real short interest being over 100%, as GameStop would simply only release just the right amount of coins to cover the float. Market forces and a proper working exchange will manage the rest.
|
||||
|
||||
So if we assume the GameCoin will be used as a dividend, when does GameStop need to make the announcement?
|
||||
|
||||
10 calendar days prior to date of record - July 4th.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/3g70o8r8rh871.png?width=598&format=png&auto=webp&s=0b91f4f32348122b51e49c64ecf16848e9fa3758)
|
||||
|
||||
Solve the Anagrams, Win a prize!
|
||||
|
||||
//
|
||||
|
||||
Calling everyday Hype is FUD, concentrated hype is how you break sell-walls and force shorts to cover
|
||||
|
||||
Here's a Hype Calendar Summarizing the above:
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/4ogw319arh871.png?width=921&format=png&auto=webp&s=83a2876392a795c056651c5af1809e138a0cf6fe)
|
||||
|
||||
//
|
||||
|
||||
TECHNICAL REASONS FOR MOASS
|
||||
|
||||
I want to give a shout out to Reddit-censored youtuber**. Who's most of the time down to earth. In one of his more recent summaries found [here](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WCSb61wD7aM) he made an interesting observation.
|
||||
|
||||
There are bullish technical indicators all around indicating huge suppression and fuckery, as of late.
|
||||
|
||||
**PS. Debugging the reddit filters was a pain - LMFAO, you can't drop his name on reddit.
|
||||
|
||||
As a Technical Analysis(TA) guy myself. Here's just ONE example:
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/nu1dkj0grh871.png?width=1305&format=png&auto=webp&s=e76e15f15757ca1710530d5450bac3b2859a31e9)
|
||||
|
||||
But really confirm it for yourself, pull up really any reliable TA metric designed to track fuckery, like RSI/MACD divergence, Bollinger Bands, Crayon lines, you name it. We are overdue for a huge correction upward. The Hype is real.
|
||||
|
||||
//
|
||||
|
||||
In short, I am but one Ape trading on my own.
|
||||
|
||||
This DD is in my best interest as the more educated we Apes are, the more concentrated firepower we have as a whole. It pays to be on the same page.
|
||||
|
||||
Edit: I am NOT suggesting you buy digital currency (it's not confirmed and is pure speculation). But heads up if you happen to have a wallet.
|
||||
|
||||
Edit2: This is why I love the community, the reviewers. A commentor below pointed out Gamestop's Q1 ended May 1st. This puts Gamestop's Q2 end on Aug 1st. I will have to think about this, if dividend is justified.
|
316
DD/2021-07-14-A-Castle-of-Glass.md
Normal file
316
DD/2021-07-14-A-Castle-of-Glass.md
Normal file
@ -0,0 +1,316 @@
|
||||
A Castle of Glass - Game On, Anon
|
||||
=================================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/3for100Specials](https://www.reddit.com/user/3for100Specials/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/ok2e0b/a_castle_of_glass_game_on_anon/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
[DD 👨🔬](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22DD%20%F0%9F%91%A8%E2%80%8D%F0%9F%94%AC%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||
***Imperative top of post edit***: For anyone who's *already read this post***,** please go to the bottom and tell me to edit 3 isn't saying what I think it's saying...that info is a bit out of my field so I need help verifying this, but I deduced to the best of my ability...if I'm right in reading that.*.69420D chess has been played by RC and Gamestop..*.
|
||||
|
||||
EDIT 2: Apes, I need your help. There is someone impersonating the 'leavemeanon' account I described throughout my post. The biggest question is *how did this user get approved by the mods, without any evidence provided to back their claim?*
|
||||
|
||||
More details are found below in my edited response to the pinned mod post. this *needs more eyes.* Just as in my post, I do not ask for anyone here to believe anything, *but what they see. Every link is provided for you to assess with your own eyes and come to the most logical conclusion YOU believe.* This needs an explanation.
|
||||
|
||||
Preface:
|
||||
|
||||
The game that is being played is not simply *just* a House of Cards. I'd argue that it's *far larger* *(no heat towards attobit, luv ur material, wouldn't be here without it, truly <3).* The massive entities we call the Big Banks, the Market Makers, the Short dicked Hedge-funds, The Fed, etc, do not simply fall down over the course of a day. No...I'd argue that when they fail..they come crashing down from their Castle of Glass. One that has been forming cracks throughout its structure *since the day it was conceived.* A deteriorating castle which can no longer be unseen, nor..undone. Only, replaced.
|
||||
|
||||
Before we get to the solution though, you must first understand the core aspect of the problem. To highlight this problem, I'll be referring to a post that is an *absolutely essential read* so the second half of this post makes sense. (You'll find it below in a minute)
|
||||
|
||||
I'll break everything down in the simplest way I can so you have an idea of what you're walking into. Just know we're going to be discussing *everything* from the OP, his *name*, ETFs, RRPs, NFTs, and the glorious three words, which may very well tie them all together. *Game on, Anon.*
|
||||
|
||||
So without further ado,
|
||||
|
||||
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
|
||||
|
||||
Part I: The Crux
|
||||
|
||||
This post is a follow-up to my previous. I had attempted to shine some light onto a DD that was flying far too under the radar for the God-Tier level of information contained within it. It was posted roughly a month ago. It was unlike any I had read before it and till this day, continues to be unlike any I have read since. I'm talking thermonuclear level of information here.
|
||||
|
||||
This is the case for a few reasons. I'll outline them below so you have a brief understanding to start. (I'll also be quoting/referencing myself from my other post a few times to save time, so if you see similarities, just know I'm a lazy fuk).
|
||||
|
||||
1. The author: The OP behind this DD went by the name, [u/leavemeanon](https://www.reddit.com/u/leavemeanon/). Shortly after dropping this thermonuclear analysis on *HOW* the shares have been suppressed and *WHERE* they are most likely located. He vanished, but unlike the Avatar's flake ass, his job was done.
|
||||
|
||||
2. The Job: *exposing the primary methods of fuckery utilized by the short gang, the Big Banks, and even the Fed...down to the BONE.* The depth of analysis here is *still* astounding, but that's not even the kicker..its the fact he drops a God tier DD and makes a claim like this:
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/b258dyt2y5b71.png?width=704&format=png&auto=webp&s=6ba0fddb29ca59535ad5bca765ddbbf4094b4643)
|
||||
|
||||
[u/leavemeanon](https://www.reddit.com/u/leavemeanon/)'s DD: <https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nt8ot8/rip_uleavemeanon_where_are_the_shares_part_1/?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share>
|
||||
|
||||
The profundity of the statement in yellow is something that you will *only understand if you read his post.* The likely realization you'll come to once you do is that there is absolutely no way that someone making *this claim*, drops a DD with this kind of analysis, then just goes off and deletes his account.
|
||||
|
||||
Self quote: "When asking myself, why tf would someone go this far into a DD analysis and delete their account shortly after? Along with going by the name [u/leavemeanon](https://www.reddit.com/u/leavemeanon/), I found myself coming to the same conclusion each time:
|
||||
|
||||
*This. is. what. this. guy. does. He might as well be an unofficial whistle-blower who wanted no traces back to him, bc the info contained in his DD is PRECISELY what is occurring right now."*
|
||||
|
||||
I wrote this statement on my previous DD just over a month ago. I want you guys to pay special attention to that last sentence because if you read through that post, you'll realize one more thing.
|
||||
|
||||
It's not only *still* dead on, but becoming even MORE relevant in relation to the events it had described a whole-ass *month back.*
|
||||
|
||||
Now if you haven't read the post for some dingle reason..I'll provide you OP's ELI5 to give a snippet of the problem, b/c if we do not understand the *problem,* then the *solution* will not make sense.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/31f2e78rw5b71.png?width=701&format=png&auto=webp&s=2d74be4b534839192341f10a0fb1e770ff647ddb)
|
||||
|
||||
So where does the problem truly lie? Based on OP's post. It's none other, than the fuckin ETFs. OP explains the inner workings of the ETFs in a way I've never seen anyone do before. He even links this video for us real special apes, to understand.
|
||||
|
||||
<https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iX7fOx5G40A&t=323s>
|
||||
|
||||
So assuming you now understand the problem, here's an idea of the severity, as disclosed within part 3 of OP's post. Spoiler alert,
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/jcke95lsw5b71.png?width=707&format=png&auto=webp&s=9d961d2f3a843e270ecc6747f7703dcd87fc1ca2)
|
||||
|
||||
We're not done yet, remember..only once you understand the *full extent of the problem, will the solution make sense.* So to add even more juice to the flame, here's a video by Charlie Vid's, which he released on July 10th. It shows how all those RRPs...you know..those multi-fuckin billion dollar funds being moved around on a daily basis...are likely piled *right into the fuckin E T F's.*
|
||||
|
||||
<https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NhS5FgfO6Jg>
|
||||
|
||||
This video has only stood to further validate the point [u/leavemeanon](https://www.reddit.com/u/leavemeanon/) made a whole ass month back. The information he's discussing is still pretty novel and needs more eyes, but the connection he makes in that video is hard to argue against. Even if you don't fully grasp wtf that shit means, and let's be honest, most of us still don't b/c RRPs are the most absurdly convoluted thing on this planet. Nonetheless, the big picture is pretty evident. From this video, it seems almost entirely plausible that these transactions between the Fed and the other end of the parties involved (the Big Banks) are being done illegally at historic levels, to *keep the entire market from collapsing.*
|
||||
|
||||
To provide a better idea of what *may* be going on here, I'm going to refer to someone who seems to have a far clearer grasp on these transactions than myself. I'm fine with speculating on most things but these RRPs though, I'm way too smooth-brained for that and the last thing I need is to be throwing a 69th definition of what they mean into the mix.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/hpucxdxtw5b71.png?width=1121&format=png&auto=webp&s=79fbcdd82cae68bad05dffec310c6f841199ee52)
|
||||
|
||||
This may also explain why most of the rules released in relation to the derivatives market seem to have only slowed down recent events, but not much more. I'm saying this because the way some of those rules were written, they sounded like they would dice up the short's plan of approach completely. Though there does *seem* to be a clear impact on how GME has been trading since most of the rules were implemented, *they haven't ended the game.* To me, this likely means that the greatest source of fuckery held by Shortgang and Co. lies elsewhere.
|
||||
|
||||
The Married-puts, the dark pools, or whatever else method of manipulation these limp-dick cum-dumpsters have up their sleeves may be *some* of the better-known gears behind their scheme, but I'm willing to be *it's the ETFs, which are the true source of their Fuckery.* These transactions described in the video above, and further theorized upon by the comment attached, are occurring *through the entire ETF market.*
|
||||
|
||||
Part II - The Connection
|
||||
|
||||
Now that you understand the problem, we are *almost* cleared to move onto the solution. Before going further, I need to provide some context here. My previous post, as mentioned earlier, was intended for a single purpose: Shedding light on [u/leavemeanon](https://www.reddit.com/u/leavemeanon/)'s DD. Shortly after dropping it though, I received a comment and message from a few users who sent me down one hell of a rabbit hole. As in that post, I was making some tin-foil hat connections to the meaning behind [u/leavemeanon](https://www.reddit.com/u/leavemeanon/)'s username. Though this part may not necessarily even be linked, it's important I mention it because had it not happened, I would not have discovered what I believe to be the *solution*.
|
||||
|
||||
Moving forward from here, we're going to be treading over some speculative waters and more than likely, be testing that 4-hour erection window before you need to call your doctor. They might have to raise the bar on that one if the following of what I've found is *even remotely correct.*
|
||||
|
||||
This part may sound absurd at first, but I only ask you to trust me until you reach part 3. For most of part 2, I'm explaining because I feel it important to clarify *how I came to my conclusions.* My thoughts in this section don't necessarily *have* to be true, and I wouldn't be surprised to find out if this ends up being the case in the future.
|
||||
|
||||
That being said, *their relevance in this DD is that of an intermediate*. They are what helped me discover what I believe to be the *solution for the problem described above.*
|
||||
|
||||
My speculative journey would lead me down an immense rabbit hole roughly a month ago. It would begin with a fascination with Anon's DD but soon evolved to also include the method of its deployment (OP deleting his account shortly after dropping it), the technical but extremely concise language utilized, and the structure of its writing, as I began to ponder the *meaning behind OP's name*.
|
||||
|
||||
The now-deleted user, who went by the name of 'leavemeanon" would ring a few bells for another ape, that would comment the following on my post:
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/bk2rbtcvw5b71.png?width=660&format=png&auto=webp&s=cd3afb645f019a42f0d0ae6630c8501cdab70d45)
|
||||
|
||||
It was at this point that I began to speculate whether there was a connection between Anon's name and the phrase above found on Gamestop's NFT website. Now I cannot state that there is a direct relation between the two, but I find it necessary to shed light on the connection I theorized (with the help of some amazing apes), regarding what *I believed it to be.*
|
||||
|
||||
what if, the now-deleted OP's name was in reference to more than just 'leave me anonymous'? What if...OP's name was an attempt to send us a message about the material covered in his post in regard to the ETF market?
|
||||
|
||||
Here is the likely-to-be unlikely link: the word Anon is defined as "soon, shortly". OP went by the name LeaveMeAnon. I.e leave me '*soon, shortly'.* So naturally, I went full tin-foil mode and chased the idea further down the hole. I made the following assumption in doing so, what if OP was telling us,
|
||||
|
||||
"the material I'm covering, the current ETF market as we know it, is to be *left behind soon/shortly, and let me explain why"*
|
||||
|
||||
Whereas 'Game on, Anon', a phrase located throughout Gamestop's NFT website, if used under the same pretense, could refer to *"Game on, Soon/shortly".*
|
||||
|
||||
So the link that would bring me to the absurdly coincidental connection that may, or may not have been fueled by an unhealthy amount of confirmation bias at the time:
|
||||
|
||||
Anon's post is created with knowledge equitable to damn near Burry himself, with the sole purpose of exposing where the *true problem lies* in the GME saga. He mentions married-puts, high-frequency trading, and ETFs in-depth to show this. Yet, it is the latter most issue that gets the largest emphasis placed on it. Why do I believe that?
|
||||
|
||||
Primarily because the more I looked into this situation, the more I began to see that the institutions involved on the short side of GME aren't the Castle of glass, they simply *live in it*. The Castle itself...is the entire *ETF market.* A structure which throughout and within it have become increasingly prevalent by the passing of each day. They are quite literally, *a legal method of naked shorting*.
|
||||
|
||||
Where Anon takes the time to reveal the problem, it's Gamestop, the company itself, that has quite literally been showing us the *solution to this problem.* All of which it has been doing through its *actions, not its words.*
|
||||
|
||||
Part III - The Solution
|
||||
|
||||
If you made it this far, just know I'm proud :')
|
||||
|
||||
Part II is certainly the most tin-foil section in this post, but as you proceed through part III, you'll soon realize why I found it necessary to provide all that information. This is certainly my favorite part. Stick through to the end and you'll see why we save the best, for last.
|
||||
|
||||
Moving forward right where we left off - If you go onto that same NFT website, copy the link which is posted on their NFT page, paste it into google, and open the first tab from the etherscan website and click on the 'contracts tab', guess what you'll find there...
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/dw2amyuww5b71.png?width=700&format=png&auto=webp&s=71586f7708fd74a1dc32d2d77bee979d47d8a668)
|
||||
|
||||
Still, think it's a simple coincidence? It's alright, I mean "it's not it actually means anything...*" right Anakin?".....*zooms in closer*....." right..?**
|
||||
|
||||
Lol don't actually try to zoom in, there isn't shit there if you do that. But... third time's a charm, right? what if there's more to that phrase than just some random ass meaning?
|
||||
|
||||
To find out, I did some more digging around that term after finding the above which would lead me to find the following tweet:
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/3g9t4kxxw5b71.png?width=553&format=png&auto=webp&s=2e69a9e45aaab0e47149e9ef8d48a895e4a069df)
|
||||
|
||||
https://acceleratedcapital.substack.com/p/the-metaverse-index-
|
||||
|
||||
That phrase...look familiar? Yeah...we're about to enter solution territory...and for you "I only believe after a 4th, 5th, 6th coincidence" apes, don't worry. I'll get there anon ;)
|
||||
|
||||
The link above will take you directly to the page they've shown. Upon finding this tweet, I looked into what exactly these guys were talking about. After reading in-depth about what exactly this 'Metaverse' is, as well as viewing some of the other links they have posted on their website, you'll find information about its relation to NFTs, *Blackrock*, and something known as the Index Cooperative.
|
||||
|
||||
Now, why exactly are these things all noteworthy? Well, if you don't live under a rock and are a certified retarde like yours truly, you'll remember some hype going around with Gamestops NFT plans. But before we get to that, let's put this together in a cascading manner so you fully grasp what we're looking at here.
|
||||
|
||||
What is the *Metaverse* exactly?
|
||||
|
||||
- Per Wikipedia: "*The Metaverse is a collective, virtual shared space, created by the convergence of virtually enhanced physical reality and physically persistent virtual space, including the sum of all virtual worlds, augmented reality, and the internet"*
|
||||
|
||||
- It's further described as a basket of 15 tokens that serve the purpose of capturing entertainment trends, sports, and business shifting to virtual reality.
|
||||
|
||||
- The next absolutely fascinating find in regard to the Metaverse index is one that requires you to zoom out and view the bigger picture. By doing so, you'll begin to understand *what it's trying to change*. An article that goes extremely in-depth on it would provide this insight:
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/0evviqy7x5b71.png?width=706&format=png&auto=webp&s=c42c57f41dbd2a47f856799c5b1fbca70e79b9a2)
|
||||
|
||||
https://www.masterthemeta.com/business-breakdowns/into-the-void
|
||||
|
||||
This article above (absolutely excellent read btw) is what links our topic of focus. N F Ts. Notice the black-highlighted sections, primarily *the bottom one.*
|
||||
|
||||
This information takes us back to Accelerated Capitals website. Here we find a bit more relative information to *virtual ownership via NFTs, gaming,* *virtual reality, and entertainment"*, as well as the inclusion criteria it has before an NFT can be issued under it.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/zqyi588bx5b71.png?width=519&format=png&auto=webp&s=5e30ec3cb2e5d9cfe689bf66d55b119a1c0741e6)
|
||||
|
||||
https://acceleratedcapital.substack.com/p/the-metaverse-index-
|
||||
|
||||
I highlighted the 3 month period because if I remember correctly...there's a company out there that has something to do with gaming, which was supposed to go bankrupt..but didn't..and similarly *issued an NFT token a few months back...what the date on that?* 4/07, now I'm not the best at math but roughly 3 months since then would be...😎 (s/o [u/LordoftheEyez](https://www.reddit.com/u/LordoftheEyez/) for the help on clarifying the timeframe!)
|
||||
|
||||
But let's get a bit more specific, wtf *is the Metaverse Index really?*
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/zzodtd4ex5b71.png?width=560&format=png&auto=webp&s=7751bd534f1a59ef5852a709c93fe7e153864077)
|
||||
|
||||
Oh boy, well now we're getting somewhere. After looking into what exactly the Metaverse index was, I found myself directed towards something called the *Index Cooperative (Coop Index).* Think of this thing as the very top of the cascade, it contains *other blockchain-based indices within it, such as the Metaverse Index.* Upon visiting The Index Coop website, you get a pretty baseline idea of what it is to better explain:
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/k3lb9ebfx5b71.png?width=670&format=png&auto=webp&s=72448ae5aad8c7dfa1ec6d27ee55884c8db2231e)
|
||||
|
||||
Just a refresher on the cascade of terms here as I explained them a bit out of order, from the highest --> lowest level of priority. (also priority here isn't me saying least is worst lol, it's simply in relation to where they actually fall relative to one another)
|
||||
|
||||
Index Cooperative > Metaverse, etc > NFTs
|
||||
|
||||
Because this cascade functions *entirely separate from the modern-day stock market which includes modern-day ETFs as we know them, they play by COMPLETELY different rules.*
|
||||
|
||||
- It'd be an absolute shame if a company that was *shorted to high-hell...decided to jump ship and hop into this thermonuclear fueled fuckin rocket,* and light up all the dipshits who decided to bet against it..
|
||||
|
||||
- *A shame for those dipshits, that is.* Fkn dingles lmayo..alright back to semi-serious mode...
|
||||
|
||||
Going forward, I did some deep dives through other Reddit pages to learn more about this thing, and to my surprise, I got a damn good explanation of *what EXACTLY is the Index Coop attempting to become. It is as follows,*
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/18rghmqgx5b71.png?width=351&format=png&auto=webp&s=d86df95bc179c813eab794690b4e909f681427a2)
|
||||
|
||||
"OVERVIEW OF INDEX"
|
||||
|
||||
"[Index Cooperative](https://www.indexcoop.com/) is a DeFi project that's going after the multi-trillion-dollar [ETF](<https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Exchange-traded_fund#:~:text=An%20exchange%2Dtraded%20fund%20(ETF,the%20day%20on%20stock%20exchanges)> (exchange-traded fund) market. At its simplest, an ETF is like a basket of assets (be it stocks, bonds, commodities, or crypto) that can be traded in a group. Companies like [Blackrock (under its subsidiary iShare) and Vanguard each have over a trillion dollars](https://www.etftrends.com/10-biggest-etf-issuers-of-2019-by-market-capitalization/) under management in the form of ETFs. ETFs have been so popular, that people like [Michael Burry ](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Michael_Burry)(of [*The Big Short* ](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Big_Short_(film))) have called it a "[passive investment bubble](https://www.etfstrategy.com/passive-investing-a-bubble-says-big-short-investor-michael-burry-10449/)"."
|
||||
|
||||
Two things should stick out to you off the bat:
|
||||
|
||||
1. "Own the *Blackrock* of DeFi" while stating *Ethereum ETFs as being a business with a multi-trillion dollar upside.*
|
||||
|
||||
2. *"Index Cooperative* *is a DeFi project that's going AFTER the Muti-trillion ETF market"*
|
||||
|
||||
Putting these two together took a minute, I found myself asking, how tf Blackrock was thrown into the loop? so I started scavenging through a few more articles through Accelerated Capitals page and found this:
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/hm2475wjx5b71.png?width=523&format=png&auto=webp&s=1a6774dc5f83719f90e5106767f6a53a222267a3)
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/qx2k5askx5b71.png?width=568&format=png&auto=webp&s=1725e3f6de6d82378226d7df2c632af86c79c461)
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/y8sq7mhlx5b71.png?width=596&format=png&auto=webp&s=e702330d584be66568d423ac51d2b7ba187816a3)
|
||||
|
||||
TA:DR/conclusion:
|
||||
|
||||
Let's bring all this together now, because if you've made it this far, then you're likely still taking all this in. I know, it's a lot to take in and I also understand that some of my conclusions are speculative. In the end, this is truly all we can do until the elephant in the room gets so big, that it is no longer possible to ignore or deny it. For this reason, I ask each and every one of my fellow apes to dig into every piece of information I've provided above and reason these things out for themselves. Follow the evidence, question the data, question the logic, and deduce the flaws. Only then can you truly justify to yourself that the investment you've made in this stock, was done so out of confidence, and genuine Due-Diligence.
|
||||
|
||||
We began by introducing the problem, because, like any other problem you wish to solve, you must first understand the problem. The more complex and/or convoluted that problem is, oftentimes the longer it can take to ascertain the necessary information in *properly* learning about it. This is something we covered in part I, in which section I introduced you to the elephant in the room, the ETF market, or as I like to call it, The *Glass Castle.*
|
||||
|
||||
In part II, I provided insight into what I like to think of as the *intermediate,* between the problem and the *solution.* Though I do not have high expectations for those connections to be outright true, they did not need to be. Their purpose was served the moment they led me to find everything I wrote about in part III.
|
||||
|
||||
Within this final part, I described to you *the solution*. IF I'm right in my thought process here, THEN the actions being taken by RC and Gamestop are quite literally, *pointing in a single direction*.
|
||||
|
||||
Changing the game and giving the *power back to the players* isn't just about changing the company, no...It's about shifting the ENTIRE damn landscape of how the modern-day economy functions. This change, the NFT initiative currently being taken by GME is with damn near certainty moving towards one goal..before we describe that goal, let me provide one last refresher, but this time with analogy's so there is not a single ape left behind.
|
||||
|
||||
1. At the very top, you have the largest basket: the Index Cooperative (think of this as the new blockchain stock market)
|
||||
|
||||
2. Within this large basket, you have multiple medium-sized baskets: The Metaverse Index, Defi-Pulse index, etc. (Think of this like the SP.Y)
|
||||
|
||||
3. And within individual *medium-sized* baskets, you've got NFT's (think a jet-fueled gaming company ran by a fuckin 69D chess master)
|
||||
|
||||
Imagine an economy where there is no longer a middle man, by which I mean the modern-day banking system as we know it. Ask yourself, if you had the ability to choose a completely different system, where the *power of decision-making and investing potential lies in your hands, and not in that of some middle-man who would rather use it for his own personal benefit at the cost of YOUR losses, would you use it?*
|
||||
|
||||
Quite *likely*, I'd say. Unless you enjoy getting hoed by greedy scumbags, but you probably wouldn't have made it this far in this post had that been the case. This leaves us to the ultimate question, *what exactly is RC doing?*
|
||||
|
||||
Based on everything I've shown you, He's planning on cutting out the middle-man. These modern-day Big Banks and pretty much every other financial institution from the SEC to the Fed have been laying in bed together for decades. In doing so, they thrived within their castle while the rest of humanity continued to struggle, often unable to make even our most *basic* ends meet.
|
||||
|
||||
Yet in the end, it was *this* greed that blinded them. *This* greed allowed their own naivety to consume them. Most importantly, it was their unending hunger for power and wealth that created a facade so great, that they could no longer see that karma isn't a bitch. Karma is a fuckin mirror. This is the true cost of their "opportunity".
|
||||
|
||||
And those cracks? Each day that passes, they spread further and deeper. Its flaws can no longer be unseen, nor can they be *undone.*
|
||||
|
||||
Only, replaced.
|
||||
|
||||
I'd argue the game isn't *about* to change...but rather,
|
||||
|
||||
I'd argue, it already has.
|
||||
|
||||
P.S Larry Cheng, GME board member, and Matt Finestone, Blockchain guy.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/he11uoanx5b71.png?width=719&format=png&auto=webp&s=71ae4b3ff60cee1aeac8db24f58c98eacd22084d)
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/v7hws3tnx5b71.png?width=720&format=png&auto=webp&s=d0e83ff0f441722f5011e477419d82d2c13ddb4e)
|
||||
|
||||
None of this is financial advice, I repeat, I still do not know how to walk on all two's. Thank you for your time.
|
||||
|
||||
EDIT: There's a pretty fancy pants wrinkly-brained ape down in the comments who did a solid job of providing a description of the kind of changes I had envisioned while writing this DD. I didn't get around to including most of the things he's stating, but they are certainly on the same track of thought process. So, it's only right I add his comment for all apes to see. I've described the process, this is what the results, I believe, will look like,
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/ptyywbopx5b71.png?width=739&format=png&auto=webp&s=d9b3fe851f9f02a4b6e0fc803430a2ee68f697de)
|
||||
|
||||
EDIT 2: This post was partly inspired by this ape, I had shared my previous DD onto the post containing the video which tied the RRPs to the ETFs. Upon further conversing with this ape last night, he provided me with, what seems to be a hint and I believe, this is what he's getting at. I'm at my 20 image count but this was his statement:
|
||||
|
||||
"I'll drop this Easter egg on you."
|
||||
|
||||
"Simplicity. Complexity is meant to hide complexity in the markets. Also meant to distance simplicity in relationships. The most complex situations are usually handed over a simple old fashion between friends...or foes. Game on Anon"
|
||||
|
||||
My response, after pondering these words:
|
||||
|
||||
"simplicity...simplicity in a complex situation, is leaving the complex situation entirely. Their system and all of its cracks, cannot be unseen, nor undone. To replace a system that is so evidently flawed with its complexities requires a simple solution*, leaving it behind entirely, and creating something new.*
|
||||
|
||||
"This is my take on your wise words. Game on Anon"
|
||||
|
||||
TIT SLAPPIN EDIT 3: Holy fucking. shit. Apes, I need all eyes on this.
|
||||
|
||||
Please correct me if I'm wrong as this is out of my field.....but tell me this doesn't fuckin read the way *I think it reads...*
|
||||
|
||||
GME PROSPECTUS SUPPLEMENT FILING TO THE SEC, JUNE 9TH, 2021 - top of page 16
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/opdli35tx5b71.png?width=1860&format=png&auto=webp&s=d2e6624d4f5c3c3d7249c04e8cb62ffcefe81dca)
|
||||
|
||||
Edit 4: Alright apes, I'm just getting around to updating this for inclusion of insight from an ape who is far more versed into this type of language than yours truly. The portion you see below was a conversation I had with this very kind mod from another sub, as I had to post this in other locations due to the initial difficulty of getting it onto the 'Stonk. This portion has actually been included in the other posts but since I submitted this version before having the conversation below, and it was pushed forward by the mods on superstonk at a later time, it didn't incorporate this conversation at that time. Hence, why I've provided this edit now. It's been a long 24 hours fighting the good fight in an attempt to get people on this sub to see this material, and though a success, I had to rest up so my body could hodl. That's the context, now the insight.
|
||||
|
||||
The breakdown provided by Theta here *seems to be* *far more conclusive in regard to what all that suit talk is truly stating***. Read it a few times over if you have to, but if logic is our basis, then this does make sense until unless we find out otherwise.** Additionally, this ape was able to look around and find some backing for his statement as well! So truly bravo to you sir, know that your assistance in this is greatly appreciated [u/Theta-Voidance](https://www.reddit.com/u/Theta-Voidance/).
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/8yhyuh2u98b71.png?width=679&format=png&auto=webp&s=9e0343d2e0dc5f9e18b9e9c9401631a6023884f0)
|
||||
|
||||
Naturally, where one perspective is correct in deducing the suit-speak, another deduction remains ape-speak. So I crossed off my initial assessment now that we've been provided some cleaner insight, but you'll still find it below for your apely pleasures.
|
||||
|
||||
~~I've read this literally 20 times over...I've even read the last two damn pages 20 times over to make sure what it's leading up to is actually~~ ~~*what I think it is...*~~
|
||||
|
||||
~~I've highlighted it in three different colors to make the transition of statements easier to read, or harder lol idk:~~
|
||||
|
||||
1. ~~Yellow -~~ ~~*if the DTC fails to do its job, and they are not*~~ ~~*effectively replaced within a 90-day allotted period by a succeeding depository...*~~
|
||||
|
||||
2. ~~Green -~~ ~~*we will issue*~~ ~~*a different type of security different than the type already in the market, but still somewhat similar to it..*~~
|
||||
|
||||
3. ~~Blue -~~ ~~*But also, one more thing you fucboys...at any given point in time, and based on our absolute SOLE discretion..*~~
|
||||
|
||||
4. ~~*RED - We may decide to just say fuck it, and issue our OWN security which is COMPLETELY*~~ ~~*SEPARATE*~~ ~~from the type already IN the market, AND the same condition apply under the circumstance we swapped them earlier for the semi-similar securities~~ ~~(referenced in the green highlight),~~ ~~*in case you try and pull a fast one with those too...*~~
|
||||
|
||||
S/o to [u/Apprehensive-Use-703](https://www.reddit.com/u/Apprehensive-Use-703/) bringing this to my attention...smart ass fkn apes out there man..
|
||||
|
||||
Guys....I need some serious wrinkles on this....this is not the shit that I do lol, so someone confirm to me that I'm not geekin and that's *not how that fuckin reads.....because it sounds like Gamestop has literally planned for the TRANSITION step to the shit I've covered in this post.*
|
||||
|
||||
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
|
||||
|
||||
Edit 5: Upon discovery of a tweet dating back to April by a sharp-sighted ape in the comments, we may have some further connection to the *Metaverse and Gamestop's NFT website motto:*
|
||||
|
||||
"Here's the link provided by [u/WholesomeLowlife](https://www.reddit.com/u/WholesomeLowlife/)
|
||||
|
||||
<https://mobile.twitter.com/indexcoop/status/1379872194172317696>
|
||||
|
||||
Where have I seen *players, creators, collectors before?* <https://nft.gamestop.com/>"
|
||||
|
||||
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
|
||||
|
||||
And another addition from an Ape that brought some more fascinating insight to me earlier as well, This is in respect to the initial NFT token issued by Gamestop a few months back, here's his findings:
|
||||
|
||||
"Killer DD! So we know the ERC-721 is the 1 GME coin. The Metaverse uses ERC-20 tokens from my understanding. If you look in the wallet that has the 1 ERC-721, it also has 420.69 of the ERC-20. <https://etherscan.io/address/0x10b16eede03cf73cbf44e4bfffa3e6bff36f1fad#comments>
|
||||
|
||||
I remember initially talking was a perceived scam but idk if that's the case. I think you're on to something. There is also a wallet that has process over 10k transactions of the ERC-20 coin but idk if that means anything. Hope you see this. If not, I'll try a message" - [u/kevykev89](https://www.reddit.com/u/kevykev89/)
|
||||
|
||||
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
|
||||
|
||||
These findings are certainly fascinating, to say the least..so I ask you, how much do *you* believe in coincidences? I encourage each and every one of you to ponder upon these relations and come to your own conclusions which make the most sense to *you***. I know what I believe, and I stand by my thoughts on those things. All I can hope for is that you find the same hope that I may have. Sometimes, speculations and hypotheticals are just that, but sometimes,** *there's more to them, than may at first, meet the eyes.*
|
||||
|
||||
*Game On, Anon.* 💎
|
||||
|
||||
*Power to the Players 🚀*
|
@ -0,0 +1,50 @@
|
||||
What We Do In The Shadows, Part 1
|
||||
=================================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :----: | :----: |
|
||||
| [u/SubParMarioBro](https://www.reddit.com/user/SubParMarioBro/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/comments/or91vf/what_we_do_in_the_shadows_part_1/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
[🔬 DD 📊](https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/search?q=flair_name%3A%22%F0%9F%94%AC%20DD%20%F0%9F%93%8A%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||
What We Do In The Shadows, Part 1
|
||||
|
||||
Regulatory Arbitrage
|
||||
|
||||
Ape Mode: SHF (Shitty hedge funds) can hide their short positions and FTDs by using unconventional international lending schemes. They've done this extensively on other tickers in the past decade. The reason the short interest and FTDs "dropped" earlier this year is because they're playing the same game with GME today.
|
||||
|
||||
TL;DR Mode: Two of the most controversial questions since the end of January have been: "What happened to the short interest?" and "What happened to the fail-to-delivers?" There's been a lot of good DD aimed at these questions but based on FINRA and SEC documents I think I've found the smoking gun. Hedge funds know all the loopholes, and it turns out that there's a loophole they've abused extensively in the past that hides short interest, fail-to-delivers, and allows endless rehypothecation that wouldn't be legal according to the SEC. The trick is to (instead of doing a conventional locate and borrow) to use something called an arranged financing program with foreign prime brokers. Everything ends up getting hidden as the transactions cross international borders and don't get reported properly on either side of the pond. They also get to take advantage of rules in other countries that are much more favorable to them than the ones here.
|
||||
|
||||
Too Long Mode: I started making forward progress after looking through the recent FINRA Notice 21-19, regarding potential changes to short interest reporting, where they have the following section:
|
||||
|
||||
<https://www.finra.org/rules-guidance/notices/21-19>
|
||||
|
||||
> Loan Obligations Resulting From Arranged Financing: FINRA understands that members may offer arranged financing programs (sometimes called "enhanced lending" or "short arranging products") through which a customer can borrow shares from the firm's domestic or foreign affiliate and use those shares to close out a short position in the customer's account. FINRA is considering requiring members to report as short interest outstanding stock borrows by customers in their arranged financing programs to better reflect actual short sentiment in the stock.
|
||||
|
||||
FINRA is saying that rather than doing a conventional borrow to deliver on a short, a SHF could use an arranged financing / enhanced lending program to do the borrow, and this magically doesn't need to be reported as a short. FINRA is saying that functionally it is a short, but through the magic of "we wrote the rules" it doesn't get reported that way. Cool!
|
||||
|
||||
I looked at GME back in January when all the shorts magically disappeared and I said "hey, maybe there's something to this." So I started researching enhanced lending and arranged financing and there's unfortunately not a huge amount written about this that Google can easily find, yet a few of the things I've read suggest it's not a particularly exotic subject in hedge fund circles.
|
||||
|
||||
But I found this document on the SEC website which is amazing and even though it's written about something happening to different tickers 5-10 years ago it perfectly captures what we're seeing with GME today.
|
||||
|
||||
<https://www.sec.gov/comments/s7-11-15/s71115-19.pdf>
|
||||
|
||||
So this is a response to several questions about ETFs, and the first bit is about liquidity issues in ETFs and isn't very exciting for us. Then it gets into chronic extreme short selling in ETFs. The author demonstrates the absurdity of the size of the short position. Certain ETFs were so heavily shorted that institutional ownership (reported periodically on SEC filings) would sometimes be as high as 700% of the outstanding shares. So the shares outstanding has been shorted at least six times over, just as evidenced by the size of the institutional position. One key difference is that we have a good idea of how heavily shorted these funds were because institutions were buying them heavily and reporting many times as many shares as should exist. With GME we have a lot of DD indicating that retail owns the float multiple times but it's much harder for us to prove, let alone pinpoint the size of this position, as it's not reported.
|
||||
|
||||
It gets better though. So we've got these ETFs that are comically shorted. 700% institutional ownership should mean a 600% short interest at the bare minimum, right? 100% for the real shares and 600% for the synthetic ones. What does the FINRA short interest report show though? A fraction of that. So we have a stock with a demonstrably massive short position, but FINRA says that short interest is much lower than what we observe based on actual ownership. Remember that FINRA notice I quoted near the top? This document I found at the SEC explains how this happens. Rather than doing a conventional locate - borrow the SHF uses an enhanced lending / arranged financing program to borrow the share. This has several benefits:
|
||||
|
||||
-Your short position does not get included on the FINRA short interest report.
|
||||
|
||||
-The enhanced lending / arranged financing programs utilize prime brokers in the UK. Unlike the US where rehypothecation is a bad word, the UK is very laissez-faire about it. So we can wildly rehypothecate everything we can get our hands on.
|
||||
|
||||
-FTDs also disappear because even if they're happening they end up recorded off book and overseas, and not reported to American regulators. The funds being discussed in the SEC document had very low FTD rates despite having an insanely large short position with nowhere close to enough shares to cover the long positions. Sound familiar?
|
||||
|
||||
The SEC document explains:
|
||||
|
||||
> One of the reasons the NSCC data is not accounting for an adequate number of fails of U.S. securities is because some large short positions are book-entered with special financing conditions (sometimes referenced as enhanced lending, enhanced or arranged financing, with re- hypothecation as a transactional component). Most special financings are book-entered in offshore jurisdictions and accounted for outside of the U.S. national clearance and settlement system (DTCC/NSCC). The risks from re-hypothecation and similarly named practices have been building since the last financial crisis. These types of transactions appear to have been misunderstood by regulators, perhaps because they were misled regarding the nature and magnitude of the activity. The re-hypothecation process is well understood by sophisticated U.S. clearing firms and was developed to evade U.S. laws, rules and regulations. Arranged and enhanced financing are typically executed through divisions of the same clearing firm and entail loaning/borrowing synthetic assets/shares to/from another affiliated branch.
|
||||
|
||||
So we have here a mechanism that explains two of the biggest questions about GME. Where did the short interest disappear to? Where did the FTDs disappear to? It also provide a mechanism for the sort of infinite rehypothecation that would be against the rules in US markets but sure seems to be at play in how heavily shorted GME is.
|
||||
|
||||
It's not surprising that a loophole like this exists in our regulatory structure. The rules are written in order to appear to take a strong stand against market manipulation and abuse while allowing these sorts of gimmicky backdoor tricks to persist so that nothing really changes. And it's not surprising that hedge funds would resort to this specific loophole to hide their short position in GME, after all this is far from their first rodeo using this loophole to abuse short selling rules. Companies like Citadel brag that they make their money off arbitrage. I suppose they figure that playing fast and loose with the rules via regulatory arbitrage is the same thing.
|
12
Data/2021-07-21-GME-Average-Share-Price-in-recent-13F.md
Normal file
12
Data/2021-07-21-GME-Average-Share-Price-in-recent-13F.md
Normal file
@ -0,0 +1,12 @@
|
||||
$GME Average Share Price in These Recent filings... 🚀
|
||||
======================================================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/18Oracle369](https://www.reddit.com/user/18Oracle369/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/DDintoGME/comments/ooq5lw/gme_average_share_price_in_these_recent_filings/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
[𝗗𝗮𝘁𝗮](https://www.reddit.com/r/DDintoGME/search?q=flair_name%3A%22%F0%9D%97%97%F0%9D%97%AE%F0%9D%98%81%F0%9D%97%AE%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://i.redd.it/e3lw4lm3lkc71.png)
|
@ -0,0 +1,30 @@
|
||||
JP MORGAN CHASE CLOSES MORTGAGE BACKED SECURITIES TRADING ACCOUNT WITH DTCC.
|
||||
============================================================================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :----: | :----: |
|
||||
| [u/Quelcris_Falconer13](https://www.reddit.com/user/Quelcris_Falconer13/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/GMEJungle/comments/osfxgk/jp_morgan_chase_closes_mortgage_backed_securities/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
[DD 👨🔬](https://www.reddit.com/r/GMEJungle/search?q=flair_name%3A%22DD%20%F0%9F%91%A8%E2%80%8D%F0%9F%94%AC%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||
Forgive me as I'm on mobile and I already accidentally lost the whole post draft once navigating away to look for something... this is gonna be fast and dirty (the best way, really) of doing some DD.
|
||||
|
||||
I was cross checking some DD on my own regarding GME being placed on the "chill list" idk what that means but considering it's like 90+ degrees outside and humid AF, it sounds like a nice list to be on.
|
||||
|
||||
Anyways I'm sure most of us remember this from April [JP Morgan chase sells 13bn in bonds in largest bank deal ever](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-04-15/jpmorgan-to-sell-13-billion-of-bonds-in-largest-bank-sale-ever)
|
||||
|
||||
Now if you KNOW your gonna have to help some little hedge funds with all their computers that earned PhDs or whatever un-fuck themselves from the royal fuckening they gave themselves; wouldn't it be smart to have, say, 13 billion in cash on hand?
|
||||
|
||||
So if you're big bank and you know you're gonna have to help others cover cuz you're a member of the DTCC, wouldn't you be looking to pull out of the corporation that is making you responsible for a mess that (for fucking once) you're not responsible for ASAP? I certainly would cuz fuck that shit!
|
||||
|
||||
So anyways I'm reading the important notices and as I'm scrolling I come across [this...](https://www.dtcc.com/-/media/Files/pdf/2021/7/22/MBS1006-21.pdf)
|
||||
|
||||
JP Morgan Chase will No longer trade mortgage backed securities thru the DTCC
|
||||
|
||||
I'm sure you can tell by now my brain is smoother than a baby's ass so can someone with more wrinkles please translate? Am I interpreting this right? What's re the implications of a big bank leaving the DTCC? I should say it refers ONLY to mortgage back securities trading... with how fucked the housing market is right now (we all know it is, if not, go check out the real estate pages on Reddit, they're fucking bleak!) do y'all think this is actually another sign of the MOASS approach or is chase covering themselves from the potential housing market collapse?
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
[2021-07-22-JPMC-Closes-MBS.pdf](https://github.com/verymeticulous/wikAPEdia/files/6884891/2021-07-22-JPMC-Closes-MBS.pdf)
|
@ -0,0 +1,286 @@
|
||||
BlackRock & The Great Reset (Part 1)
|
||||
====================================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/Exceedingly](https://www.reddit.com/user/Exceedingly/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/ommfn7/blackrock_the_great_reset_part_1/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
[DD 👨🔬](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22DD%20%F0%9F%91%A8%E2%80%8D%F0%9F%94%AC%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||
PREFACE
|
||||
|
||||
This post is about [BlackRock](https://i.imgur.com/EHtH9nB.jpg) and how I believe they're involved in the Gamestop saga. I'm a simple man with few wrinkles, if you had asked me what a call option was last year I would have assumed you were talking about the automated choices you get on some robotic phone lines, so yeah this may come across as childish and naive. I'll be mostly just looking at 13F documents to look for patterns and to try and build a picture of events as they unfolded. I've read many posts about BlackRock but I've yet to see one post that ties everything together [like I see it in my head](https://i.imgur.com/7OvFsrl.jpg).
|
||||
|
||||
Please note I don't come to any definite conclusions here, this is just my opinion and it's definitely not financial advice. I also didn't know Reddit posts had a 40k character limit so this is posted in 3 parts. [Yeah it's big](https://i.imgur.com/eqMXsM8.jpg), but I've tried to break it down into sections to make it easier to take in.
|
||||
|
||||
* * * * *
|
||||
|
||||
* * * * *
|
||||
|
||||
TOO APE, DIDN'T READ:
|
||||
|
||||
BlackRock might be a force for good, but too soon to tell.
|
||||
|
||||
* * * * *
|
||||
|
||||
* * * * *
|
||||
|
||||
TLDR:
|
||||
|
||||
*(This is as short as I can make this)*
|
||||
|
||||
- BlackRock is run by Larry Fink who debatably knows Wallstreet better than anyone else and he seems to be on a mission to clean things up.
|
||||
|
||||
- BlackRock built one of the greatest market risk detection systems on the planet called Aladdin so Fink clearly knows what's happening with Gamestop.
|
||||
|
||||
- I tracked GME institutional ownership back to March 2017 and found GME was getting shorted as far back as that.
|
||||
|
||||
- BlackRock was [willing to accept US Treasury bonds as collateral](https://i.imgur.com/IeRVj8G.png) in share lending (possibly the only company to do so), and from Atobitt's everything short we know Shitadel had easy access to UST bonds. This implies BlackRock gave Shitadel a cheap way to start shorting GME.
|
||||
|
||||
- BlackRock had held millions of GME for years and then sold shares in bulk at 2 points; when Gamestop needed shares for a stock buyback and when RC wanted to buy shares, both times BlackRock seemingly sold at a big loss. This seems like BlackRock was doing both parties a favor.
|
||||
|
||||
- Fidelity and Dimensional Fund Advisors had also lent out GME for years, they then decided to sell all of their GME shares in Q1 2021, to do this they first had to recall the shares and I believe this caused the January squeeze, due to their shares having been rehypothecated for 4 years.
|
||||
|
||||
- It wasn't only Gamestop where Fidelity sold shares, they sold their entire supply of 21 other stocks which all squeezed in Jan, so I think Fidelity caused these squeezes too.
|
||||
|
||||
- I then looked at the 2020 market crash and [BlackRock went into this without buying puts to protect themselves like they had done during previous crashes](https://i.imgur.com/XuoZ0Ik.png), they also sold $ hundreds of billions worth of stock and then bought right back into the exact same positions mere weeks later. To me it seems BlackRock (possibly with the help of Vanguard) helped crash the markets so they could get the [SLR](https://www.risk.net/definition/supplementary-leverage-ratio-slr) (leverage) rule relaxed. This rule change meant the shorts could go even harder on their short positions thanks to banks having easier access to US Treasury bonds.
|
||||
|
||||
- BlackRock made it easy for the shorts to borrow shares, then made it easier for shorting to happen during the pandemic and they sold GME to Gamestop and RC when they both needed them (at great cost to themselves). It just seems to me that BlackRock laid out a long trap over the past 4 years to hurt the shorts and cause the MOASS. Fidelity and Vanguard may have had a hand in this too; Fidelity also sold to Gamestop during the stock buyback and then caused all the squeezes in Jan, and Vanguard pretty much copied BlackRock's actions during the 2020 crash which led to the SLR rule change. Why did they do all this? Partially for self-interest, BlackRock & Vanguard have increased their positions in a lot of heavily shorted stock so will benefit from the many imminent squeezes (I'm eagerly awaiting the next 13F documents to see how their holdings look now). I also think they enabled the MOASS for the reason below:
|
||||
|
||||
- My opinion is that BlackRock et al wanted to crash the markets so they can be rebuilt with sustainability in mind. [BlackRock is apparently the key to redistributing $120 trillion worth of investment into sustainable companies](https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/great-reset-blackrock-fueling-120-210000214.html), and I believe this will happen during and after the MOASS; BlackRock will pull out of any non-eco-friendly companies and push money into eco-friendly ones.
|
||||
|
||||
- Larry Fink has been urging CEOs to release ESG data for their companies, ESG stands for Environmental, Societal and Governance and it measures non-financial factors like pollution, deforestation, gender and diversity policies, bribery and corruption, lobbying, executive compensation and many more points showing how "good" companies are at their core. I believe post MOASS high scoring ESG companies will boom while the others will dwindle.
|
||||
|
||||
- Gary Gensler has also started pushing hard for ESG data to be released, implying this concept is accepted by the US government too.
|
||||
|
||||
- The Great Reset is a term relating to sustainability and meeting net zero targets, it started getting used during the pandemic with the idea of "building back better" but so far, there's been very little done towards this so far.
|
||||
|
||||
- The government has been quiet about the Great Reset, but John Kerry (currently serving as the first United States Special Presidential Envoy for Climate) said last year that the government will support the Great Reset and that the Great Reset "will happen with greater speed and with greater intensity than a lot of people might imagine" call me a tinfoil hat, but that sounds like a reference to the MOASS to me.
|
||||
|
||||
- Finally I looked at how the DTCC have been working on [Project Ion](https://www.dtcc.com/~/media/Files/Downloads/settlement-asset-services/user-documentation/project-ION-paper-2020.pdf) and [Project Whitney](https://www.dtcc.com/~/media/Files/Downloads/settlement-asset-services/user-documentation/Project-Whitney-Paper.pdf) for the past 6 years, both of these are about digitizing securities to be traded on blockchain, particularly Ethereum (sound familiar?)
|
||||
|
||||
- The SEC recently just happened to bring on a crypto expert (Gary Gensler) as their Chair around this time.
|
||||
|
||||
- Additionally 45 different countries are currently researching CBDCs (central bank digital currencies) and the Federal Reserve is looking into a digital dollar too, which may come out with the arrival of a new crypto stock market.
|
||||
|
||||
- The DTCC's own papers say that a point of resistance for a new digitized system is fighting the status quo and not fixing what isn't broken. Cue the MOASS. This will decimate the markets leaving a perfect opportunity for a new blockchain based stock exchange where the digital dollar can be introduced too.
|
||||
|
||||
- Gamestop's crypto announcement could well be one of the first companies to trade on this new system.
|
||||
|
||||
- Overall I believe there's been a 4 year plan in motion to crash the markets to the point they can be rebuilt from the bottom up. BlackRock might have enabled this, but Shitadel & Co were the perfect stooges to demonstrate just how badly the current system can be abused and why change is needed.
|
||||
|
||||
- Finally there seems to have been a FUD campaign against BlackRock and the concept of the Great Reset, almost as if Shitadel is pissed off all of this is happening and they're now spreading FUD about these things just like with Gamestop.
|
||||
|
||||
- I honestly believe that our buying and holding isn't just yielding us tendies, but that we're part of the greatest revolution ever that will help fight climate change and weed out corruption.
|
||||
|
||||
* * * * *
|
||||
|
||||
* * * * *
|
||||
|
||||
HONORABLE MENTIONS:
|
||||
|
||||
*(in alphabetical order)*
|
||||
|
||||
- [/u/Atobitt](https://www.reddit.com/u/Atobitt/) (the maestro himself) wrote [The Everything Short](https://reddit.com/r/GME/comments/mgucv2/the_everything_short/) which I'll explore in Section 5.
|
||||
|
||||
- [/u/BarTPL0](https://www.reddit.com/u/BarTPL0/) wrote [this post](https://old.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/mysvq9/dtcc_anticipates_completion_of_prototype/), the only one I've seen on Superstonk which mentions Project Ion, I'll mention this in Section 9.
|
||||
|
||||
- [/u/Bladeace](https://www.reddit.com/u/Bladeace/) wrote a post called ['The NYSE threshold list: collapsing shorts and launching the MOASS'](https://reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/oao9oo/the_nyse_threshold_list_collapsing_shorts_and/) which I'll look at in section 4.
|
||||
|
||||
- [/u/BurnieSlander](https://www.reddit.com/u/BurnieSlander/) wrote [The Matrix is Everywhere. A Quant DD](https://reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nzajpv/the_matrix_is_everywhere_a_quant_dd/) which I'll touch on in Section 5.
|
||||
|
||||
- [/u/Criand](https://www.reddit.com/u/Criand/) has more wrinkles than a pruned avocado and I could read his posts all day long, but I'll just be looking at his [The Bigger Short](https://reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/o0scoy/the_bigger_short_how_2008_is_repeating_at_a_much/) post in Section 7.
|
||||
|
||||
- [/u/Get-It-Got](https://www.reddit.com/u/Get-It-Got/) wrote [this post](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/ns7k6q/could_gamestops_liftoff_unravel_corporate_junk/?utm_source=reddit&utm_medium=usertext&context=3&utm_name=Superstonk&utm_content=t1_h1lw3ow) on HYG --- IShares IBOXX $ High Yield Corporate Bond ETF, which I'll touch on Section 6.
|
||||
|
||||
- [/u/--GrinAndBearIt--](https://www.reddit.com/u/--GrinAndBearIt--/) made [this post](https://reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/ms4syp/blackrock_currently_has_3_exmember_inside_the/) which I'll look at in Section 8.
|
||||
|
||||
- [/u/hell-mitc](https://www.reddit.com/u/hell-mitc/) wrote [this post](https://reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/mrstka/its_just_a_bug_bro_part_4_it_has_to_be_a_fucking/), if you're reading this I hope I can put your mind at ease in Section 7.
|
||||
|
||||
- [/u/ringingbells](https://www.reddit.com/u/ringingbells/) made [this meme post](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/oizcqz/an_actual_unpopular_opinion/) which I'll address in Section 5.
|
||||
|
||||
- [/u/SamBradfordSuperFan](https://www.reddit.com/u/SamBradfordSuperFan/) recently wrote [this post](https://reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/okjctq/explaining_the_gme_token_it_has_launched_the/) explaining elements of Gamestop's crypto token and how there's a need to wait for Ethereum update EIP 1559. I'll look at this in Section 9.
|
||||
|
||||
- Special thanks to [/u/variousred](https://www.reddit.com/u/variousred/) who proof read this post, offered suggestions and helped make me feel this wasn't all just a load of rubbish.
|
||||
|
||||
* * * * *
|
||||
|
||||
* * * * *
|
||||
|
||||
TOPICS WE'LL BE COVERING
|
||||
|
||||
🔹🔹🔹(PART 1)🔹🔹🔹
|
||||
|
||||
1\. WHAT IS BLACKROCK?
|
||||
|
||||
2\. LARRY FINK
|
||||
|
||||
3\. ALADDIN
|
||||
|
||||
4\. GME INSTITUTIONAL OWNERSHIP
|
||||
|
||||
🔹🔹🔹(PART 2)🔹🔹🔹
|
||||
|
||||
5\. SHARE LENDING
|
||||
|
||||
6\. BLACKROCK'S EXPOSURE
|
||||
|
||||
7\. THE 2020 CRASH
|
||||
|
||||
🔹🔹🔹(PART 3)🔹🔹🔹
|
||||
|
||||
8\. THE GREAT RESET
|
||||
|
||||
9\. CRYPTO MARKETS
|
||||
|
||||
10\. NEGATIVE SENTIMENT
|
||||
|
||||
11\. CONCLUSION
|
||||
|
||||
* * * * *
|
||||
|
||||
* * * * *
|
||||
|
||||
*If you already know a decent amount about BlackRock and Aladdin then feel free to start at section 4.*
|
||||
|
||||
Otherwise buckle up and let's get on with this!
|
||||
|
||||
* * * * *
|
||||
|
||||
* * * * *
|
||||
|
||||
1\. WHAT IS BLACKROCK?
|
||||
|
||||
- BlackRock (BR) is a massive international investment company that's been around since 1988. They have $9 trillion in assets under management (according to latest 2021 figures) and they use the money from investors to buy assets, such as shares, exchange-traded funds (ETFs), bonds, real estate etc.
|
||||
|
||||
- They charge fees for their services and their investors are typically very wealthy. They take a strategic approach offering bespoke portfolios based on the needs of individual customers. Just like Fidelity, BlackRock is very customer oriented and while their main goal is to make money for their clients, they do this is a controlled and measured way aiming to maximize returns while minimizing risk.
|
||||
|
||||
- Hedge funds differ from the above approach in that they use high-risk investment strategies in the hopes of getting massive returns. A favourite hedge fund tactic is obviously naked shorting, which is highly profitable when it works (tee-hee). I'm gonna be blunt here and assume if you're investing with Shitadel, you don't really get a choice where your money is used. BlackRock is starting to offer portfolios which contain only eco-friendly companies, but I imagine with Shitadel your money just gets dumped in a big pot to be used for shorting or investing in mayo.
|
||||
|
||||
- BR manages about $1 trillion of pension and retirement funds for millions of Americans, which shows just how many large investors trust BlackRock. Their stock portfolio currently shows over 5k companies with a combined value of $3.4 trillion and they own over 10% of equity in hundreds of large companies (Gamestop included).
|
||||
|
||||
- Did you know that as of 2021 BlackRock is no longer the largest asset manager in terms of assets under management? The new top dog is: [Fidelity with $10.4 trillion in AUM](https://i.imgur.com/LbdqeTc.png)
|
||||
|
||||
- If you search "BlackRock controversial" you'll get hundreds of horrible sounding points which on face value may make you not want to trust a company like this. I will be addressing a lot of these in this post *but* my goal here isn't to convert you to trust BlackRock or even to like Larry Fink who runs it, only to educate you on some points you may not know.
|
||||
|
||||
SUMMARY: BlackRock is a huge investment company managing trillions of dollars of investment.
|
||||
|
||||
* * * * *
|
||||
|
||||
* * * * *
|
||||
|
||||
2\. LARRY FINK (the man in charge)
|
||||
|
||||
- Mr Larry Fink is a 68 year old gentleman who started working on Wall Street when he was 23. He's built himself up to be one of the most powerful men in the US, but he seemingly prefers to stay out of the spotlight. I bet a lot of you reading this have never even heard his name before (I certainly hadn't until recently).
|
||||
|
||||
- Fink founded BlackRock in 1988 with the help of some others. Vanity Fair wrote a pretty in depth piece on Fink which you can [find here](https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2010/04/fink-201004), that's definitely worth a read if you get the chance, I will be pulling a lot of bits out of that article but I probably won't do his full background justice
|
||||
|
||||
- Fink studied real-estate finance and later received offers from top investment banks. He chose First Boston and worked trading bonds and later with mortgage-backed securities. Over the next decade he built a name for himself and helped develop the multi-trillion-dollar debt-securitization market that transformed the face of finance. Unfortunately this later helped bring the economy to its knees in the 2008 crisis, but inherently it was a good innovation and initially made housing more affordable and made money for his company.
|
||||
|
||||
- Over time he helped make $1 billion for First Boston and many believed that he would eventually go on to run the firm, but unfortunately in the second quarter of 1986 his department lost $100 million. Almost overnight, Fink says, he went "from a star to a jerk." People stopped talking to him in the hallways; he was ostracized.
|
||||
|
||||
- "It was very painful," Fink recalls. "I was not treated as a partner or with the dignity that I expected. Relationships changed and that was difficult for me to handle," he says. "As a result," during the two years before he left First Boston, "I was losing my self-confidence." Leaving was very difficult. "I loved First Boston," he says. Even now, 22 years later, he is visibly upset remembering the time, gripping his chair so tightly his knuckles are white. Fink says he didn't know what to do next; all that was certain was that he was tired of Wall Street---of the way it treated people, its employees and its clients.
|
||||
|
||||
- He says he lost money at First Boston because no one really understood the risks involved. The computer systems were inadequate, and so were the programs that measured the impact of key variables such as changes in interest rates. "We built this giant machine, and it was making a lot of money---until it didn't," Fink says. "We didn't know why we were making so much money. We didn't have the risk tools to understand that risk. It's what I tell everybody today: you should analyze your portfolio just as much when you are making money, because you could be taking on too much risk". Seared by his fall from grace at First Boston, Fink vowed never again to be in a position where he did not fully understand the risks he was taking in the market.
|
||||
|
||||
- Fink went on to form BlackRock in 1988 and operated within Blackstone (not his company), he was given a $5m line of credit and turned this into $20b over the next 5 years. He had a disagreement with a partner over control of the funds and he split off from Blackstone to run BlackRock by himself, his company boomed and went on to become the largest asset management company on the planet.
|
||||
|
||||
- Many CEOs began turning to Fink for advice and during the 2008 crash the then chairman of the New York Fed called Fink personally for help in managing the $30 billion of toxic assets that the Fed took over. During the crash itself all funds across the market were hemorrhaging billions, and Fink said that the government needed to step in and guarantee them before the credit market collapsed, which the Treasury Department did within hours of Fink's call.
|
||||
|
||||
- If I understand that point correctly, Fink is the one that made the 2008 bailout happen. Imagine the power involved where someone can suggest to the government that they spend over half a trillion $ to halt a crash, and having that happen within hours.
|
||||
|
||||
- It is hard to understand Fink as a person unless you spend time watching him in interviews and reading tons of background on him, but [here's some character testimonials](https://i.imgur.com/4zRlIG7.png) from the above article if you haven't read them already.
|
||||
|
||||
- I want to finish this section by talking about one of BlackRock's biggest financial mistakes, the iconic Manhattan housing complex Stuyvesant Town and Peter Cooper Village. This deal cost $5.4 billion and went into default very quickly. Investors who bought equity in the deal also lost their money, including the $200 billion California Pension and Retirement System (calpers), the nation's largest pension fund, which effectively lost $500 million.
|
||||
|
||||
> At the mention of these blunders, Fink, who has been sprawled in his chair, suddenly stiffens. His voice takes on a harsh tone that is leavened only by his visible anxiety. "When you manage money, you are going to make mistakes. You are not going to be 100 percent perfect. Our job is to minimize those problems, to cauterize them," Fink says, his voice rising. "We're not perfect, and I've never said to anyone that we are going to be perfect. Our investors had all the information we did and they did their own due diligence." He exhales deeply. "Our real-estate division is struggling because of bad performance, and we're making changes. I don't care if the whole industry blew up, our job is to do better than the industry, and we didn't in real estate," he says. "I am not making excuses. I lose sleep over these problems." The Stuyvesant Town loss was "an embarrassment," he says. Then his voice drops to a whisper. "I mean, my mother gets her pension from calpers."
|
||||
|
||||
- Whether you believe Fink's words or not, to me he comes cross as an honest down to Earth person who shows remorse over his mistakes. I highly doubt mayo man Ken would lose sleep over his bad business deals, nor would he feel remorse if one of his deals affects his mother's pension fund. To me these two men come across as stark opposites.
|
||||
|
||||
SUMMARY: Fink is good at what he does (making money), he's likeable and honest and seems to show remorse over bad decisions. He was forced out of a company he loved because of a bad trade and he vowed to always know the risks involved in the future. He became the go to guy for many CEOs and even the US government.
|
||||
|
||||
* * * * *
|
||||
|
||||
* * * * *
|
||||
|
||||
3\. ALADDIN & RISK MANAGEMENT
|
||||
|
||||
- What distinguishes BlackRock from other investment companies is its state-of-the-art system for evaluating and managing risk. Aladdin is a system of 5,000 computers running 24 hours a day, overseen by a team of engineers, mathematicians, analysts, and programmers. This computer farm can monitor millions of daily trades and scrutinize every single security in its clients' investment portfolios to see how they would be affected by even the most minor changes in the economy. Apparently as of 2020, Aladdin managed $21.6 trillion in assets.
|
||||
|
||||
- In 2000, BlackRock launched BlackRock Solutions, the analytics and risk management division of BlackRock. The division grew from the Aladdin System (which is the enterprise investment system), Green Package (which is the Risk Reporting Service) PAG (portfolio analytics) and AnSer (which is the interactive analytics). Through BlackRock Solutions, customers pay for advice on the markets and can test their portfolios in the risk systems. This division now has about 140 clients, the best known of which happens to be the U.S. government. Yeah, the freaking US government pays BlackRock for market advice.
|
||||
|
||||
- Aladdin can simulate every imaginable shift in interest rates, every conceivable change in the financial markets, and stress-test the performance of hundreds of thousands of securities in numerous global-crisis scenarios. Here's a thought, you know those liquidity tests being done on Shitadel & Co? I'd wager that Aladdin might be the system being used for those.
|
||||
|
||||
- [This article](https://www.businessinsider.com/what-to-know-about-blackrock-larry-fink-biden-cabinet-facts-2020-12?r=US&IR=T) says "Vanguard and State Street Global Advisors, the largest fund managers after BlackRock, are users of Aladdin, as are half the top 10 insurers by assets, as well as Japan's $1.5tn government pension fund, the world's largest. Apple, Microsoft, and Google's parent firm, Alphabet --- the three biggest US public companies --- all rely on the system to steward hundreds of billions of dollars in their corporate treasury investment portfolios."
|
||||
|
||||
- The overall point I'm making here is that Larry Fink seems true to his word in that he takes risk seriously. BlackRock seems to be the exact opposite of a hedge fund like Shitadel which seems happy over-leveraging themselves on positions with potentially unlimited loss, I can't see Larry Fink doing that any time soon.
|
||||
|
||||
SUMMARY: Fink has clearly become one of the most powerful people in finance, he's created an incredible risk assessment system and has US officials coming to him personally for advice. BlackRock's Aladdin system may be the one the government is using to do the liquidity tests on Shitadel & Co, either way BlackRock and Fink are likely highly aware of what's happening with Gamestop, so let's go on to explore GME's ownership over the years including BlackRock's involvement in this.
|
||||
|
||||
* * * * *
|
||||
|
||||
* * * * *
|
||||
|
||||
4\. GAMESTOP INSTITUTIONAL OWNERSHIP
|
||||
|
||||
- First point I want to make here is about BlackRock's overall portfolio value. They've been the largest asset management company for a while but according to their 13F filings their securities portfolio only seemed to really boom at the start of 2017 [as seen here](https://i.imgur.com/BoDFvIs.png). For this reason I'm mainly only going to be looking at Q1 2017 and onwards.
|
||||
|
||||
- [Here's a graph of GME institutional ownership going back to 2017](https://i.imgur.com/f8y4R3z.png). Yeah that's a lot to take in and it might not be very clear if you're on a phone (apologies). A caveat here is that there could be smaller companies with GME that I can't trace (without trial and error through thousands of 13f reports), but I hopefully caught most of the big ones. Here's some observations I can see straight away:
|
||||
|
||||
- 1. BlackRock and Fidelity held the largest GME positions for the majority of the last 4 years.
|
||||
|
||||
- 2. UBS never really has a large GME position despite being the 3rd biggest asset manager in 2020, so I will rule them out of any further analysis.
|
||||
|
||||
- 3. BlackRock, Vanguard and Fidelity all pretty much stay level or increase their GME positions until mid 2019 and then start to sell. I wonder why that was?
|
||||
|
||||
- 4. Fidelity & Dimensional both have large GME positions for 4 years then they decide to sell ALL of their shares in Q1 2021, that seems odd.
|
||||
|
||||
- Now to make it clearer let's sum institutional ownership together, compare this to share price and include the total outstanding shares, [all of that all looks like this](https://i.imgur.com/lKfwMQH.png). Ok, that's easier to follow and straight away I'm seeing a reason why institutions began selling GME in 2019, Gamestop underwent a massive stock buyback where they reduced their total shares from over 100 million to around 65 million, here's how it went:
|
||||
|
||||
| Date | Total Shares Outstanding |
|
||||
| --- | --- |
|
||||
| Jun-19 | 102.27 million |
|
||||
| Sep-19 | 90.46 million |
|
||||
| Dec-19 | 65.92 million |
|
||||
|
||||
- I'll talk about this stock buyback further a few paragraphs down, but let's finish analyzing the graph first. The other thing that stands out to me is the inverse proportional relationship between institutional ownership and price, [here's some comments to show you what I mean](https://i.imgur.com/AQSad8R.png). Why would price drop as institutions buy more shares? Increased demand should push the price up, not vice versa. Maybe it was the public selling off and lowering the price, but then why would institutions buy more? They seem to be investing in an failing stock, so what are they getting out of it? The only conclusion I can come to here is that GME was being shorted as far back as 2017; it seems institutions were buying stock and immediately lending this out, Shitadel borrowed this and shorted it dropping the price. Further evidence of Gamestop being shorted is seen when institutions start selling from mid 2019 to the end of 2020 which seems to make the price shoot up, this is likely because their lent shares had been used in shorting and when they recalled those shares to sell it forced closing of short positions pushing the price up.
|
||||
|
||||
- Institutions can make a lot of money lending shares, [as this chart about BlackRock shows](https://i.imgur.com/5hiFyUW.jpg). Back in 2018, Elon Musk called BlackRock out for their share lending program claiming that they were helping short sellers. Apparently our very own Mr [Dave Lauer defended BlackRock's actions here](https://i.imgur.com/6yL8fuU.jpg). Dave is correct here (as he usually is), lending shares is not in itself an issue, it creates additional revenue stream for the lender and there's no guarantee shorts will succeed if they do use the borrowed shares for shorting. It's like trying to blame the cashier who sold a knife at Walmart if that gets used in a crime. I know that there's a lot of contention about share lending on Superstonk, but I honestly believe that the MOASS wouldn't be a possibility if share lending hadn't happened.
|
||||
|
||||
- Now let's examine the [stock buyback](https://i.imgur.com/hAAUbHX.png) in 2019. [This article](https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20190819005633/en/Scion-Asset-Management-Urges-GameStop-to-Buy-Back-238-Million-of-Stock-with-Cash-on-Hand) talks about Dr Michael Burry's letter that he sent to Gamestop's Board of Directors in 2019, in that letter he urges Gamestop to buyback 80% of their outstanding shares, he points out that GME shares were at a record low price yet volume for GME was rising. He goes on to mention that 60% of the shares are shorted and that Gamestop's cash levels are much higher than the current market cap from the stock, so it all points to poor capital allocation by Gamestop's management. He says that them doing a stock buyback would be a bullish move and could help start turning Gamestop around, I believe DFV draws on these points in his original Gamestop thesis. I don't know if this is worth mentioning, but Dr Burry starts his letter by saying he owns 2.75 million GME shares, [but he had only held these for 2 months](https://i.imgur.com/bmzMo9L.png) at most when he wrote that letter, so he doesn't seem to be a deep value investor here, to me it suggests he saw this as an opportunity for a squeeze and wanted to take advantage of that.
|
||||
|
||||
- Let's take a quick look at what stock buybacks are (feel free to skip this paragraph if you already know). [Investopedia](https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/042015/why-would-company-buyback-its-own-shares.asp) covers it well, firstly a stock buyback is not the same as a stock reverse split even though both reduce the number of shares available to investors, this is because with a buyback the issuing company is actually using company money to buy the shares to reduce numbers and this pushes the share price up, whereas in a reverse split the amount of shares is reduced without any shares being bought so that technically keeps the value the same. With a stock buyback the issuing company can purchase the stock on the open market or from its shareholders directly. In recent decades, share buybacks have overtaken dividends as a preferred way to return cash to shareholders and though smaller companies may choose to exercise buybacks, blue-chip companies are much more likely to do so because of the cost involved. This will be why Dr Burry recommended this method, Gamestop had the cash on hand to do this and it would have gone on to push the share price up (allegedly), and because companies will announce stock buybacks before they happen this has a knock-on effect where investors will FOMO into the stock thinking that it will go up in value pushing the price up further. This means that one of the greatest advantages of a stock buyback is that it hurts short sellers, simply because overall supply of the stock is reduced so that will push the price up meaning short positions lose money (on paper). Overall stock buybacks are a bullish move.
|
||||
|
||||
- Gamestop went through with the stock buyback (whether at Dr Burry's suggestion or not) and reduced their total shares from around 102 million to 65 million. [This pushed the share price up (although only slightly)](https://i.imgur.com/ID4eSC2.png) and it seems [institutional ownership dropped by 5 million shares to help complete the buyback](https://i.imgur.com/obqQf88.jpg), that suggests Gamestop bought the majority of the 36 million shares on the open market and got some help from institutional investors. Let's take a closer look at [which companies sold GME during this time](https://i.imgur.com/CceC0r3.png), so quite a few including Dr Burry's company Scion, but BlackRock and Fidelity sold the most by far with 5 million and 6 million shares respectively. But [why would BlackRock & Fidelity sell at this time after holding through a price crash for years?](https://i.imgur.com/Lpnt1Mj.png) Both of these companies had held millions of shares when the price was around $25, so to now sell around $5 means they would make an 80% loss. Were they just helping Gamestop out here? I tried to research if companies are obligated to sell during a buyback like this, but nothing I found suggests that's the case. It seems if Gamestop was unable to get the full 36 million shares they wanted then they simply would have had to buyback less stock.
|
||||
|
||||
- Little side note here, an investment company called Hestia-Permit group jumped on board buying a bit over 3 million shares during this time (which doesn't seem helpful when a company is trying to buy back stock). [Hestia had made some sort of deal with Gamestop](https://news.gamestop.com/news-releases/news-release-details/gamestop-announces-agreement-hestia-capital-and-permit) allowing Hestia to vote in some specific board members. In my opinion Hestia likely wanted to push the idea of the stock buyback and thought they'd have more sway with board members to get this passed, if this is true then Hestia likely just wanted to make a bit of quick profit like Dr Burry seems to have wanted too.
|
||||
|
||||
- Let's move forward in time a bit, the next big player to join the scene was Ryan Cohen where he started buying shares in Q3 2020, he initially buys just over 6.5 million shares at first and then increases that to 9m by the end of Q4 2020 (last Christmas). I want to look at how Ryan Cohen (RC) joined the scene, Gamestop had completed their stock buyback and had reduced the free float by 36 million shares, which isn't good when someone wants to swoop in and buy a ton of GME. This makes it seem that some institutions had to sell their shares to RC so he could come on board. [This graph shows which companies likely sold shares to RC](https://i.imgur.com/y0qSTkF.png). So Hestia and Scion sold big chunks of GME (around 6 million) but these two had only held their shares since Q3 2019, so about a year at this point. During that time [GME share price remained mostly flat (in the long run)](https://i.imgur.com/05ym6UB.jpg), to me this adds credence to the idea that these two companies did get on board to take advantage of the stock buyback, it obviously didn't pay off as they thought so they sold in bulk. There are theories floating around that Dr Burry would not have wanted to have held GME during the Jan squeeze, because he could be liable for another lawsuit just like after 2008 and like what happened to DFV. Whatever the reason Dr Burry & Hestia sold, they had held for a year and pretty much broke even. But BlackRock sold 2 million shares seemingly at an 80% loss again, they were definitely under no obligation to sell shares to RC, so were they doing a favor for RC? If so then it seems BlackRock first helped Gamestop with their stock buyback and then they helped RC get his GME shares, both time at great cost to themselves. Was this a part of some greater plan?
|
||||
|
||||
- Q3 2020 ends and RC has 6.5 million shares, but we all know he ends up with 9 million, so where do the other 2.5 million come from? The eagle eyed among you may have spotted [this before](https://i.imgur.com/yfdC4AL.png), yeah Gamestop releases more shares at exactly the time RC wants to buy more. [Let's take a closer look at that](https://i.imgur.com/jnix50b.png). Gamestop made 5 million more shares become available and RC increases his position by 2.5 million from this. Was that really just a coincidence? Gamestop just happened to release more stock at exactly the time Ryan Cohen wanted to buy more? [Here's Gamestop's SEC filing for this share release](https://news.gamestop.com/node/18351/html), so from reading that we can see that Gamestop sold these shares on the open market and that they were planning to use the money *"for working capital and general corporate purposes, which may include funding our ongoing digital-first omni-channel growth strategy and product category expansion efforts."* This really seems to me that Gamestop helped RC out here.
|
||||
|
||||
- Last Christmas ~~I gave you my heart~~ [top GME ownership looked like this](https://i.imgur.com/A7Quxq1.png), with BlackRock, Fidelity and Ryan Cohen all holding 9 million GME shares with only a 275k range between them all. What Fidelity and Dimensional Fund Advisors did next blew my mind at first. Going from Dec-20 to Mar-21 these 2 companies sell practically *ALL* of their GME shares after holding these for years through the price crash, [seriously look at this](https://i.imgur.com/4AgPF1y.png) and then [this is how long they had each held for](https://i.imgur.com/HN5Byn5.png). I don't think it takes too much guesswork to see why they sold at this time, price was at the highest point it had been in years (likely from RC's buying pressure plus there would have been a lot of share recalls around this time pushing the price up). But here's another reason why these 2 companies might have wanted to sell around this time, check out [/u/Bladeace](https://www.reddit.com/u/Bladeace/) 's post called [The NYSE threshold list: collapsing shorts and launching the MOASS](https://reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/oao9oo/the_nyse_threshold_list_collapsing_shorts_and/), that's an amazingly well written post talking about the 'threshold securities' list, here's a snippet:
|
||||
|
||||
> The New York Stock Exchange provides a list of 'threshold securities', which are securities that are regarded as difficult to borrow due to a large number of recent failures to deliver. When a security is on this list, there are limits on a market maker's ability to short sell the security in question and obligations regarding delivery requirements.
|
||||
|
||||
- [/u/Blaceace](https://www.reddit.com/u/Blaceace/) includes [this chart](https://preview.redd.it/yfmbrye3lb871.png?width=685&format=png&auto=webp&s=c28e1c25971667b38fc8717aba790de881771e86) which shows just how bad the Gamestop FTD issue was around this time. So the GME lending market is getting choppy and it seems Fidelity and Dimensional have had enough at this point and decide to sell their shares. That means they first have to recall them from Shitadel & Co but remember Fidelity and Dimensional have likely had their shares lent out for the past 4 years. Question: do you think the borrower (Shitadel & Co) only sold on 1 share per every share borrowed, or do you think they sold many shares in some form of rehypothecation abuse? My opinion is definitely the latter.
|
||||
|
||||
- The only evidence I have for this next point is circumstantial but I'm really starting to believe that Fidelity (with the help of Dimensional) caused the Jan squeeze. I'm well aware that that's a bold claim, I mean these 2 companies only held 13 million GME between them in December 2020 and the squeeze saw days of up to around 200 million volume, so that doesn't add up. [Here's GME volume around the time of the squeeze](https://i.imgur.com/qecs1MB.jpg) so yeah some crazy volume days. If you sum up GME volume by month it looks like this:
|
||||
|
||||
| Month | GME Volume |
|
||||
| --- | --- |
|
||||
| Sep-20 | 254m |
|
||||
| Oct-20 | 360m |
|
||||
| Nov-20 | 161m |
|
||||
| Dec-20 | 251m |
|
||||
| Jan-21 | 1262m |
|
||||
|
||||
- Looking at the average volumes per month, Jan 2021 probably saw around 1 billion more volume than usual, for a stock with 70 million shares that's a ridiculous increase. To me this was likely tied to Fidelity and Dimensional recalling their 13 million GME shares. Is it insane to think that over 4 years, the shorts re-lent Fidelity's & Dimensional's GME shares (1 billion / 13 million) = 77 times over? All that would have to look like is this: Melvin borrows 13 million GME shares, then says "Hey Susquehanna, I have 13 million GME shares on my books, want to borrow these off me?", Susquehanna borrows them, then says "Hey Ken bro, we have 13 million GME shares on our books, want to borrow these?" rinse and repeat 77 times, then those companies can all sell the shares on their books to crash the price. Plausible? If so it's easy to see how Fidelity & Dimensional were holding up a tower of GME 1 billion shares high and them recalling the original shares meant it all came crashing down like a house of cards.
|
||||
|
||||
- Apparently Fidelity didn't just sell off their GME at this time, they did the exact same thing with 21 other stocks which all squeezed in January. I've unfortunately run out space on this post so I'll cover that properly in the next section.
|
||||
|
||||
SUMMARY: I looked at GME ownership going back to 2017, it's pretty clear Gamestop has been shorted since at least that far back as the price was dropping despite institutional ownership increasing. BlackRock had held millions of GME since 2017 when the price was around $25 and later sold millions of shares to Gamestop and Ryan Cohen when the price was around $5, so this came at great cost to them, was BlackRock just helping Gamestop and RC out here? Fidelity and Dimensional Fund Advisors sold all their GME in Q1 2021 and I believe this caused the Jan squeeze. I finished by saying Gamestop wasn't the only stock Fidelity dropped at this time that underwent a squeeze, we'll explore that idea in the next section.
|
||||
|
||||
[Continued in Part 2](https://reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/ommfz1/blackrock_the_great_reset_part_2/?)
|
@ -0,0 +1,133 @@
|
||||
BlackRock & The Great Reset (Part 2)
|
||||
====================================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/Exceedingly](https://www.reddit.com/user/Exceedingly/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/ommfz1/blackrock_the_great_reset_part_2/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
[DD 👨🔬](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22DD%20%F0%9F%91%A8%E2%80%8D%F0%9F%94%AC%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||
Welcome back. If you read all of [Part 1](https://reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/ommfn7/blackrock_the_great_reset_part_1/?) well done. This thing definitely got bigger than I originally intended.
|
||||
|
||||
* * * * *
|
||||
|
||||
* * * * *
|
||||
|
||||
RECAP
|
||||
|
||||
Let's go over what we've covered. [BlackRock](https://i.imgur.com/EHtH9nB.jpg) is a giant wealth management company run by a guy called Larry Fink. Fink has been active on Wall Street for over 40 years and has become immensely powerful in the sense that even the US government turns to him for advice. BlackRock built a supercomputer which tracks the markets and it helps them avoid risky positions. I looked at GME ownership going back to 2017 and found evidence of Gamestop being shorted as far back as that. BlackRock had held millions of GME since 2017 when the price was around $25 and later sold millions of shares to Gamestop and Ryan Cohen when the price was around $5, so this came at great cost to them. Were BlackRock just helping Gamestop and RC out here? Fidelity and Dimensional Fund Advisors sold nearly all their GME in Q1 2021 and I believe this caused the Jan squeeze, this would be possible if their lent shares had been re-pledged many times over. I finished by saying Gamestop wasn't the only stock that squeezed in January that Fidelity had sold, we'll explore that below.
|
||||
|
||||
* * * * *
|
||||
|
||||
* * * * *
|
||||
|
||||
5\. SHARE LENDING
|
||||
|
||||
- Warning: I want to carry on looking at what happened around the January squeeze but I will be looking at some stocks other than GME. This is purely for educational purposes and I do have a reason for looking at other stock (spoiler: my conclusion is that there's just no other stock like GME, the conditions were set up too perfectly). Most of us know by now that other stocks had mini squeezes too, but nothing really compared to GME. User [/u/BurnieSlander](https://www.reddit.com/u/BurnieSlander/) recently wrote a post called [The Matrix is Everywhere a Quant DD](https://reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nzajpv/the_matrix_is_everywhere_a_quant_dd/), which is an excellent write up on which stocks spiked in January, [this chart](https://preview.redd.it/qs0qkcborz471.png?width=1306&format=png&auto=webp&s=187408c522c47c0de806639890f3c8e62f810bdf) sums it up well. There you can see GME spiked from around $13 to $483, the biggest monetary increase of all these stocks. Yes a stock called KOSS had a big squeeze too in terms of % difference but GME squeezed the highest by far in terms of absolute value.
|
||||
|
||||
- Purely out of curiosity I wanted to see if Fidelity sold any these stocks off too like they did with GME, lo and behold [Fidelity did sell a bunch of those other shares off too](https://i.imgur.com/UT3oV03.png). There's only 4 stocks from that above list that Fidelity didn't sell (OEG, LIVE, DAC and ACRS) and that's because they didn't hold any of the first 3 and they actually bought more ACRS, so Fidelity had nothing to do with any squeezes in these 4, but for the 21 I listed these could definitely have squeezed because of Fidelity thanks to the wonders of rehypothecation and the fact Ken likes to sell things he doesn't own. Dimensional Fund Advisors sold their GME too and I wanted to see if they sold any of these other stocks [but no it seems they only sold off their GME](https://i.imgur.com/BBwWElU.png).
|
||||
|
||||
- I started thinking, if Fidelity sold off nearly all their supply of 21 particular stocks then was this down to a technical analysis reason? [/u/Bladeace](https://www.reddit.com/u/Bladeace/) 's post in the previous section to do with the 'Threshhold Securities' showed how choppy GME was getting, maybe it was something like this for the other stocks too that triggered Fidelity to sell? So I looked into BlackRock and Vanguard's holdings during Q1 this year, but found no evidence of these 2 selling much if any of these stocks. [BlackRock](https://i.imgur.com/I3Nyw8v.png) actually increased most of these positions rather than sell, same goes for [Vanguard](https://i.imgur.com/kRiJpXu.png). Now to me this says there was no underlying issue with these stocks and Fidelity just chose to sell them, otherwise companies like BlackRock & Vanguard would have dropped them too, right?
|
||||
|
||||
- Just very quickly I want to explore a possible reason why the other stocks didn't squeeze as much as GME. We saw in Part 1 that Gamestop underwent a massive stock buyback in 2019 where they reduced available shares by 36 million. Out of the 25 stocks in [/u/BurnieSlander](https://www.reddit.com/u/BurnieSlander/) 's list above, only 6 other stocks underwent buybacks or kept the same number of available shares, and of those 6, 3 of those companies saw the biggest 'blip' price jumps during Jan (GME, KOSS & EXPR). The other 19 stocks actually made more shares available, which works against a short squeeze. [I made a shitty diagram to show the extent of this](https://i.imgur.com/wunHu1v.png) (yeah I'm a programmer not a graphic designer), from that we can see the other stock that had a buyback similar to GME was EXPR and these 2 stocks actually act nearly identically. KOSS is also nearly identical to GME in terms of its price chart, and although this stayed pretty much flat in terms of available shares it only had around 8 million shares available, so there weren't many for short sellers to play with. I just found it interesting that 19 companies seemed to help short sellers by releasing more shares, and those stocks didn't squeeze nearly as high as GME. I'm not saying available shares is the key to stocks squeezing high, but it definitely seems to reduce pressure during a squeeze. Final point here, I show on that diagram in the bottom right that AMC jumped from 85m outstanding shares last year to 450m shares this year. This move seems entirely counter-productive if you want to hurt short sellers and it's the exact opposite of what Gamestop did. This is possibly why MSM tried to divert so much attention to AMC, simply because that became way easier for shorts to close short positions on.
|
||||
|
||||
- Going back to why Fidelity sold a load of stocks in Q1 2021, one of the most likely reasons comes from a risk of share lending. BlackRock has a very detailed [brochure on their share lending program](https://www.blackrock.com/us/individual/literature/brochure/us-retail-securities-lending-brochure.pdf) and in this it says "The primary risk of securities lending is borrower default risk. Since BlackRock's lending program started, only three borrowers with active loans have defaulted. In each case, BlackRock was able to repurchase every security out on loan using the proceeds of the borrower collateral received and without any losses to our clients". I know these are BlackRock's words, but the same risk applied to Fidelity. The lenders of their shares probably started looking like they could default (security thresholds list, FTDs rising etc) so the safest thing to do was for Fidelity to recall these. Fidelity could then sell these shares when they were at peak squeeze prices, that's just good business. But one argument against this theory (i.e. risk of borrower default) is to ask, why didn't BlackRock and Vanguard recall their GME and other stocks too? My money right now is on the theory that Fidelity did this move purposefully to test how bad the shorting situation was.
|
||||
|
||||
- Now let's look at another aspect of share lending; Collateral. When someone wants to borrow shares they have to put up collateral which is usually around 100% of the share's value and this is completely separate to the borrow fee that has to be paid. The collateral is there in case the borrower can't give back the shares, in that instance the lender just gets to keep the collateral to make up the difference. For this reason, further collateral can be requested by the lender at any time, usually following a price jump in the lent security. Increasing collateral like this makes sure the lender is covered as much as possible and this request for further collateral is a margin call for the borrower. I want to address [this meme post](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/oizcqz/an_actual_unpopular_opinion/) by [/u/ringingbells](https://www.reddit.com/u/ringingbells/) where they ask what happened to the big margin call Melvin got around January. During the Jan squeeze, Melvin Securities got the huge margin call of $3.6 billion and this was likely from lenders like BlackRock and Vanguard who still likely had around 14.5 million GME lent out. Those 14.5 million shares would have been worth around $13 each pre Jan, so ($13 x 14.5m) = $188.5 million, but the price shot up to a peak of $483 during the Jan squeeze. If we average the closing price from the 4 biggest days of the squeeze (Jan 27th - Feb 1st) we get an average closing price of $273. Substitute starting price from this new peak price ($273 - $13) = $260 and multiply by shares ($260 * 14.5m) and we get $3.77 billion which is the new amount BlackRock and Vanguard are not covered for. Good business practices say that these two will want to margin call for this amount. Seems to add up, right?
|
||||
|
||||
- Following on from that, the lender's right to ask for extra collateral is completely down to their discretion. They don't even have to ask for this if they want to take on the risk, and this explains how it was possible to have the $3.6 billion margin call reduced to $700 million, implying the DTCC pressured BlackRock & Vanguard to go easy on Melvin. The key message here is that BlackRock and Vanguard likely still have their GME lent out meaning they have Shitadel & Co's balls in their grip, would you really want to be on the wrong side of 2 companies who manage nearly $20 trillion between them? This also implies BlackRock and Vanguard hold keys for the MOASS in their hands, if that's true then it seems they've wanted to delay the MOASS up to now. I have theories on why this might be and we'll explore them in the next sections. Please note that I'm being very linear with the above margin calculations, there are too many variables to estimate this exactly, I'm just showing how it can add up to be down to BlackRock & Vanguard.
|
||||
|
||||
- Here's my final point on share lending. I've been through a lot of company's documents relating to their share lending programs and BlackRock seems to be unique in that they're willing to accept [government backed securities](https://i.imgur.com/IeRVj8G.png) as collateral where other companies won't accept this. This would be things like US Treasury Bonds, where have we heard those mentioned before? Oh yeah, [Atobitt's 'The Everything Short'](https://reddit.com/r/GME/comments/mgucv2/the_everything_short/). I'm really hoping everyone has read that post, if not here's the summary: Shitadel owns a company called Palafox Trading and uses this to EXCLUSIVELY short & trade treasury securities. This meant Shitadel had easy access to UST bonds and could have used this as a cheap way to lend stock off BlackRock, as it meant they could avoid putting up a ton of cash as collateral. If you read Atobitt's post, it feels like he's digging for a connection between Shitadel and BlackRock via UST bonds and I believe this might be it. Remember, collateral is a huge issue to borrowers because it can result in $ billions in margin calls, if Shitadel can just conjure up $billions in UST bonds through their fuckery then to them this is the best way to borrow shares. This makes it seem like BlackRock made it easy for Shitadel to start shorting companies like Gamestop in the first place.
|
||||
|
||||
SUMMARY: I looked at Fidelity and how they recalled 21 different stocks which all squeezed in Jan, making me think Fidelity was behind the overall squeeze issue due to their shares having been rehypothecated. I looked at the other stocks which shot up in value and the ones which went up the most had previously kept their total outstanding shares the same or reduced the amount of shares available. Gamestop had reduced their shares by the most out of any stock and I believe this is a big part of the reason why it had the largest price peak in Jan; there really is no other stock like GME, it seems to have been orchestrated to hurt short sellers the most. I then looked at collateral in share lending and how it's likely that Melvin's $3.6 billion margin call was down to lenders like BlackRock and Vanguard who asked for more collateral during the Jan squeeze. I finished by showing how BlackRock was willing to accept US Treasury bonds as collateral in share lending, something no other big company seems to allow, so to me this suggests BlackRock gave Shitadel an easy way to get into share lending thanks to their fuckery via Palafox Trading (see Atobitt's ['The Everything Short'](https://reddit.com/r/GME/comments/mgucv2/the_everything_short/))
|
||||
|
||||
* * * * *
|
||||
|
||||
* * * * *
|
||||
|
||||
6\. BLACKROCK'S EXPOSURE
|
||||
|
||||
- [Despite some opinions](https://www.reddit.com/r/ShittyLifeProTips/comments/mpq87g/slpt_keep_all_of_your_eggs_in_the_same_basket/), the more eggs you have in one basket the greater your risk of losing them all in one go. For this reason the largest asset management companies like BlackRock stand to lose more from a crash than smaller companies, simply because they will lose value on a greater amount. BlackRock's stock portfolio is currently worth over $3 trillion and all of that would be at risk during a stock market crash.
|
||||
|
||||
- In my extensive 6 months of following the markets, I've learned that one of the best ways to hedge against a crash is to buy 'put options'. If you don't know what these are, they're contracts that allow you to sell shares for a set pre-arranged price called the strike price, this allows you to sell shares above their current market value which is good if a market crash decimates the price of the shares. Typically investment companies don't want to sell shares unless they have to because stock should increase in value over time, so puts act like insurance where you can recoup value if shares drop in price. But puts are expensive, you pay a premium at the start and this costs more the longer you want the put contract to be open for. You can exercise the contract to recoup share value at any time, but once the contract expires it no longer covers your shares so you will have paid the premium for nothing (other than the knowledge you had hedged your bets). Additionally a single put contract covers 100 shares, so if you want to cover say 1 million shares, you would need 10k put contracts. The cost of the contracts is determined by the broker at the start, and it gets expensive (as all insurance does) so you don't want to buy puts unless you need to based on risk assessments.
|
||||
|
||||
- It should be noted that you can get a lot more value out of puts than the cost to buy them initially. Here's an example; As I'm writing this Amazon shares currently sell for $3,681. I just checked a broker and a put contract expiring at the end of August to sell 100 Amazon shares with a strike price of $3600 (just below their current market value) costs $11,435. 100 Amazon shares currently cost $368,100 *but* if a market crash halved their value then you would lose $184k. At that point you could exercise the put contract which means you have $360k (minus the $11.4k premium) instead of $184k if you hadn't bought the puts. The more Amazon falls the more value for money you get out of the puts.
|
||||
|
||||
- One additional note, people associate puts with short sellers and that's because they're usually the ones causing the share price to fall. Here they buy puts at the start, short stock to drop the price, then make money off the puts. But in essence there's nothing bad about puts, they can just act as insurance on stock investments. I don't even want to get into how puts are used to reset FTD timescales...
|
||||
|
||||
- Institutions who manage over $100 million in assets have to declare their holdings including any options contracts (calls and puts). I decided to track BlackRock's puts to see how they've protected themselves in recent years. As a little noting point, Vanguard and Fidelity don't really have any puts in their 13f reports (unless it's confidential) so I can't dig into theirs, this is all just BlackRock's. I tracked BlackRock's total value of puts and also puts as a proportion of their overall stock portfolio value, those two charts [look like this](https://i.imgur.com/WQFIWeS.png). Straight away there's a few things we can tell from these graphs, the highest peak of puts were in Sep 2018 and Mar 2021 (almost as if they're expecting a crash any time now 😏), but what stands out to me is how little they protected themselves around the start of the pandemic (Dec 2019 to Mar 2020), [I highlighted the bits I mean here](https://i.imgur.com/XuoZ0Ik.png). That seems crazy because the 2020 economic crash was far bigger than the 2008 crash we all know about, so why the hell did BlackRock seem to go into the 2020 crash so unprepared? I'll talk about this properly in the next section because it really needs a lot of analysis.
|
||||
|
||||
- I'll end this section by showing what BlackRock held in puts as of their latest filing (Q1 2021):
|
||||
|
||||
| COMPANY | COST OF PUTS |
|
||||
| --- | --- |
|
||||
| S&P | $6.7b |
|
||||
| iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond ETF | $2.5b |
|
||||
| PowerShares QQQ Trust | $1.3b |
|
||||
| iShares iBoxx $ Investment Grade Corporate Bond ETF | $220m |
|
||||
| SPDR(R) Bloomberg Barclays High Yield Bond ETF | $129m |
|
||||
| Anthem Inc | $89m |
|
||||
| Bank of America | $67m |
|
||||
| JPMorgan Chase | $67m |
|
||||
| Morgan Stanley | $63m |
|
||||
| iShares Russell 2000 ETF | $62m |
|
||||
| ARK Innovation ETF | $58m |
|
||||
| The Industrial Select Sector SPDR Fund | $32m |
|
||||
| United Continental Holdings | $27m |
|
||||
| American Airlines Group Inc | $11m |
|
||||
| NRG Energy Inc Put | $8m |
|
||||
| Delta Air Lines, Inc. | $7m |
|
||||
| Commscope Holding Company Inc | $4m |
|
||||
| Pitney Bowes Inc. | $3m |
|
||||
|
||||
- At the start of this year, BlackRock was preparing for the S&P market index to tumble, some of the major banks and some large ETFs? Interesting. As a side note user [/u/Get-It-Got](https://www.reddit.com/u/Get-It-Got/) writes about the iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond ETF [in this post](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/ns7k6q/could_gamestops_liftoff_unravel_corporate_junk/?utm_source=reddit&utm_medium=usertext&context=3&utm_name=Superstonk&utm_content=t1_h1lw3ow), and does a far better job than I could so give that a read. Going back to the idea that Fidelity caused the Jan squeezes by recalling loads of stocks, BlackRock's puts data above suggests to me that they weren't actually sure what was going to happen from Fidelity doing that, almost as if there was a chance the MOASS could have happened in Jan. That's a powerful message to me; BlackRock with their cutting edge Aladdin system and the best analysts on the planet were unsure just how fucked the shorts were, so they bought a load of puts just in case.
|
||||
|
||||
SUMMARY: I tracked BlackRock's puts data history to see how they had prepared themselves in previous years, they seemed to be woefully unprepared for the 2020 economic crash. Additionally it was possible to see that BlackRock seems to have expected the MOASS to have gone off in Q1 this year as they bet against the S&P, some of the large banks backing Shitadel and some large ETFs. It's almost as if BlackRock with all their market data was unsure just how fucked Shitadel & Co were. Now let's explore the 2020 market crash in detail.
|
||||
|
||||
* * * * *
|
||||
|
||||
* * * * *
|
||||
|
||||
7\. THE 2020 ECONOMIC CRASH
|
||||
|
||||
- There was a massive market crash in 2020 that [looked like this on the S&P500](https://i.imgur.com/ytAeUap.jpg), red circle on the left for comparison to the 2008 crash. [Even BlackRock's share value plummeted during the 2020 crash](https://i.imgur.com/6fCewDY.jpg), which suggests that they did not protect themselves adequately for it (despite having Aladdin).
|
||||
|
||||
- The curious thing about the 2020 crash was how short lived it was, the [Wikipedia article on it](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_stock_market_crash) says "The 2020 stock market crash was a major and sudden global stock market crash that began on 20 February 2020 and ended on 7 April" so it lasted less than 2 months in all. For comparison [this site](https://www.thebalance.com/stock-market-crash-of-2008-3305535) says the 2008 crash took 18 months. So 2008 crash = 1.5 years, 2020 crash = 1.5 months. On face value those timelines look ridiculously different, but this could just be to do with how the government handled the 2020 crisis. We all know they pumped $ trillions in due to covid so maybe that just helped stop the crash before it got too bad? But let's dig a bit deeper.
|
||||
|
||||
- The above Wikipedia article goes into the cause of 2020 crash and it seems to be a complicated issue with many different factors. It was largely to do with the pandemic but that's only the tip of the iceberg. Our wrinkly brained expert [/u/Criand](https://www.reddit.com/u/Criand/) explains it very well in his post called [The Bigger Short](https://reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/o0scoy/the_bigger_short_how_2008_is_repeating_at_a_much/) please read that if you haven't already, it's amazing and I can't do it justice by summarizing it here. In that post his narrative is that the 2008 crisis never ended, banks continued to abuse Commercial Mortgage Backed Securities (CMBS) as well as other forms of collateral, and then when the pandemic hit it was like a killing blow, these are [/u/Criand](https://www.reddit.com/u/Criand/) 's words:
|
||||
|
||||
> There is SO. MUCH. LEVERAGE. ABUSE. IN. THE. WORLD. All it takes is one fatal blow to bring it all down - and it sure as hell looks like COVID was that uppercut to send everything into a death spiral.
|
||||
|
||||
> When COVID hit, many people were left without jobs. Others had less pay from the jobs they kept. It rocked the financial world and it was so unexpected. Apartment residents would now become delinquent, causing the apartment complexes to become delinquent. Business owners would be hurting for cash to pay their mortgages as well due to lack of business. The subprime loans all started to become a really big issue.
|
||||
|
||||
- Like I say please read his post in full if you get the chance. [BlackRock released their own analysis of the 2020 crash](https://www.blackrock.com/corporate/literature/whitepaper/viewpoint-lessons-from-covid-19-market-structure-november-2020.pdf) which is an interesting read. Page 7 of that talks about the US Treasury market and how foreign investors sold off $400 billion of US treasuries in March 2020. A big suspected cause of the 2020 crash is that the yield returns on UST bonds crashed, meaning the safe and secure government backed securities were now becoming worthless. That paper also talks about just [how important the US Treasury Bond market is](https://i.imgur.com/QXd7hPN.png). As you can see it's worth $18 trillion and it's the most liquid market on the planet, these bonds are also used by most large banks as collateral to meet liquidity requirements. This market ties *everything* together in the US financial system, so if this starts to hiccup then the ramifications are going to be big and extreme.
|
||||
|
||||
- The 2020 crash was big but short lived, I now want to look at only the stock market aspect of the crash. Last year [these were the top Asset Management Firms](https://i.imgur.com/FwKGDuM.jpg), clearly BlackRock and Vanguard stood out with much larger AUM and [this is what all of their securities portfolios looked like](https://i.imgur.com/cIVOCMZ.jpg), so again BlackRock and Vanguard are clearly way on top, interestingly though Vanguard had a greater securities portfolio value than BlackRock. Straight away you can see that all companies dipped in Q1 2020, but it's most pronounced in BlackRock and Vanguard.
|
||||
|
||||
- I'm not going to spend too long on this next point because frankly it's a bit stupid, but it's an idea that won't get out of my head. During the 2020 crash period, BlackRock's portfolio dropped by $525 billion (just over half a trillion) where $318.5 billion of that was caused by BlackRock reducing positions and Vanguard's total portfolio dropped by $630 billion where $404.7 billion of that was caused by them reducing position sizes. Now in the next quarter both BlackRock and Vanguard bought back into positions that they had previously reduced, BlackRock spent $166.7 billion buying back into the exact same positions they had previously reduced and Vanguard spent $189.39 billion buying back into previously reduced positions. I probably did a terrible job explaining that so [here's a shitty diagram](https://i.imgur.com/cjjeaIj.png) explaining what I mean.
|
||||
|
||||
- Unfortunately you can't actually tell what price securities were bought for on 13F documents because all prices are based on averages at the end of the quarter, so it's entirely possible that BlackRock & Vanguard dropped securities that were losing money, where they sold high and bought low (this is the obvious answer). But (and please humor me here) what if they purposefully crashed the markets by selling off that $700 billion of stock and then quickly bought right back into them within 2 months? BlackRock and Vanguard dropping $700 billion of securities is no small thing, this would have caused a huge dip in the markets, triggering further panic selling. Remember BlackRock went into this crash without buying many puts, so their intention seems to have been to sell stock off rather than recoup value through puts, the latter option here would not have resulted in as big of a market crash. All evidence suggests the 2020 crash was caused by a slow build up of events, not sudden and abrupt massive bankruptcies like in 2008. Puts could have easily stopped BlackRock's portfolio value dropping too much, and yet their choice was to just sell off a load of stock affecting the whole market. [Don't worry I'm well aware of how I probably sound right now](https://i.imgur.com/lVlw9ej.png).
|
||||
|
||||
- Anyway let's look now at what came about from the 2020 crash. One of the biggest things is that Leverage went through the roof as [seen in this diagram](https://specials-images.forbesimg.com/imageserve/6084aa4c0904c0ac5a08c3f0/960x0.png?fit=scale) and [in this one](https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/00-stock-market-leverage.png). [This article](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-03-11/why-fed-s-covid-break-for-banks-now-has-it-in-a-bind-quicktake) explains why companies were suddenly allowed to operate on massive margins (it's behind a paywall but I just copy & pasted it before it was blocked, I'll walk you through it anyway)
|
||||
|
||||
- "After markets gyrated in March 2020, the U.S. Federal Reserve pumped trillions of dollars into a financial system rocked by the coronavirus pandemic. It also gave banks a one-year break from a rule called the supplementary leverage ratio (SLR)".
|
||||
|
||||
- "What is the supplementary leverage ratio? - It's a standard developed by global bank regulators after the 2008 financial crisis. It requires banks to set aside more capital as their assets grow". More accurately the SLR rule changed temporarily to allow banks to exclude U.S. Treasuries from SLR calculations, this increased the capacity of banks to own Treasuries because they wouldn't have to put up more capital to do so, and that increased their cash flow so they could go back to spending, which should have helped the economy. I think we all know by now they did not use this rule change to help the economy.
|
||||
|
||||
- Banks seem to have abused the ability to over-leverage themselves to make profit rather than help and support businesses during the pandemic. Articles like [this one](https://goldbroker.com/news/two-quadrillion-dollars-global-timebomb-2261) say "the notorious Deutsche Bank has outstanding derivatives of €37 trillion against total equity of €62 billion. Thus the derivatives position is 600X the equity." *Holy shit*, some of the big banks are 600x leveraged. That really is as insane as it sounds, that kind of leverage would be like buying a $240k house with only putting up a $400 down payment (I wish I could get those rates).
|
||||
|
||||
- Banks clearly started abusing the ability to borrow (yet again) but something bugs me about this. Larry Fink is still apparently the Federal Reserve's go-to guy, he helped them out in the 2008 crash and apparently [articles like this show he was involved in the pandemic response](https://www.businessinsider.com/what-to-know-about-blackrock-larry-fink-biden-cabinet-facts-2020-12?r=US&IR=T): *"BlackRock had a significant role to play in the US government's coronavirus pandemic response. In March 2020, the Federal Reserve picked FMA, BlackRock's consulting arm, to handle an emergency asset-purchasing program. There was no process where other asset managers could have bid for the job, according to a Wall Street Journal report."*
|
||||
|
||||
- I highly doubt Fink was only asked about an asset-purchasing program, I consider it highly likely Fink had a say in the SLR rule change too. But why would Fink allow a rule change that could lead to abuse of the markets with excessive risky lending? It's almost as if he wanted the banks to abuse this to add further fuel onto the fire.
|
||||
|
||||
- I feel like we need a big recap to go over BlackRock's possible involvement in this situation so far: They made it easy for Shitadel to start shorting stock by accepting UST bonds as collateral, Shitadel owns Palafox Trading so they can pull UST bonds out of their ass apparently. BlackRock had held millions of GME for years but only sold in bulk at 2 points; when Gamestop wanted shares back for a stock buyback and when Ryan Cohen came along wanting to join the party, at both of these times BlackRock did not seem obligated to sell to either party so it seems they helped them out. Then the 2020 crash comes, BlackRock Leroy Jenkins'd themselves into that without buying puts to protect themselves from a crash, then they sold $ hundreds of billions worth of stock only to buy this exact same stock back weeks later, a consequence of the crash (that you could argue they helped cause) was that the SLR rule was eased up so banks could exclude UST bonds from their calculations meaning they could go hard on spending including on their existing short positions. Finally BlackRock did buy puts in Q1 2021 at the exact time Fidelity recalled a ton of heavily shorted stock, and from what BlackRock bought these puts in it seems they expected the MOASS to have gone off in Jan this year. I do understand a lot of this is conjecture but I'm really hoping you're starting to see some possible webs forming between BlackRock's actions and what's gone down so far.
|
||||
|
||||
- If any of what I'm assuming is true, why the hell have BlackRock done all of this? It seems like they've purposefully enabled the market to get heavily shorted and yet also helped set Gamestop up to hurt short sellers. Did they want all of this to blow up? Most of us know that BlackRock has previously backed Ryan Cohen when he was setting up Chewy, so those 2 already have a connection. BlackRock selling millions of shares to RC when there were unlikely any on the market (other than phantom shares) seems to have been another time these 2 were connected. I'm going to make another assumption now and say that RC might just be another pawn by BlackRock in their game. Ryan Cohen jumping into Gamestop and buying 9 million shares was a risky move, last year Gamestop still had a bleak outlook, hence why so many people called DFV insane when he went hard into GME. The financials just weren't there, revenue was lower than ever due to the pandemic and it seemed George Sherman wasn't making any grand gestures to improve the company. Why would RC just swan in and spend around $100 million on a dying store? Yes he's a brilliant business man, but unless RC had an idea that the shorts were about to be hurt then I deem that to have been a risky move. If Larry Fink had let Gamestop get nearly destroyed by short sellers knowing that they could reverse their game at any point by recalling shares (just like Fidelity did) then passing this knowledge on to RC would give him the confidence to go so hard on Gamestop. Maybe Fink was even the one who passed the idea onto RC in the first place, where Fink wanted a successful young business man to swoop in and save a dying company, I mean he had seen RC in action with Chewy so he knew he would be perfect for this role. Yes RC could have done all of this by himself, but to me there's too many little hints BlackRock are involved and RC couldn't have even come onboard with his 9m shares if it wasn't for BlackRock. I'm well aware this might all be a bit too tinfoil for you, but remember [even Mulder was correct sometimes](https://i.imgur.com/Vua68HR.jpg).
|
||||
|
||||
- I want to finish this section by looking at [this post](https://reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/mrstka/its_just_a_bug_bro_part_4_it_has_to_be_a_fucking/) made by user [/u/hell-mitc](https://www.reddit.com/u/hell-mitc/). That post shows how Larry Fink said "We never had any convos with our clients surrounding crypto, and we never had any convos regarding reddit and gamestop...but it is fun to watch...". [/u/hell-mitc](https://www.reddit.com/u/hell-mitc/) is understandably pissed off by this statement because [it seems BlackRock is not taking this issue seriously](https://i.imgur.com/xqSR3PV.jpg). But if we look at the same interview with the ideas I've covered in this post, then we can see now how Fink set the ultimate trap for the shorts; he made it easy to lend shares, he worked against them by selling shares to Gamestop and RC and then he helped give banks unlimited leverage to double down on short positions. Fink did nothing malicious himself and yet fully enabled the shorts to destroy themselves with their greed. In Fink's position I would consider it "fun to watch" too.
|
||||
|
||||
SUMMARY: The 2020 economic crash was massive but short lived, the 2008 crash lasted 1.5 years whereas the 2020 crash lasted 1.5 months. I speculated that BlackRock may have had a hand in causing the stock crash as they sold $ hundreds of billions of stock then bought right back into the same positions just weeks later. The outcome of the 2020 crash was that the SLR rule got changed allowing banks to exclude UST bonds from their SLR calculations, this should have helped the economy, bit instead it seems to have just helped them go harder on their short positions. I reiterated some points on how BlackRock might be involved in this saga and that RC might have been introduced by Fink to help start the Uno reverse part of the plan. Finally I looked at a user's post where Fink said the Gamestop saga was "fun to watch", and considering everything we've covered so far I can see how it would be fun to watch in Fink's position too. Now let's ask, why would Larry Fink want the markets to blow up? I have a theory and we'll look at that in the next section.
|
||||
|
||||
[Continued in Part 3](https://reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/ommgb0/blackrock_the_great_reset_part_3/)
|
@ -0,0 +1,179 @@
|
||||
BlackRock & The Great Reset (Part 3)
|
||||
====================================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/Exceedingly](https://www.reddit.com/user/Exceedingly/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/ommgb0/blackrock_the_great_reset_part_3/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
[DD 👨🔬](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22DD%20%F0%9F%91%A8%E2%80%8D%F0%9F%94%AC%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||
Welcome back. If you're still with me after reading [Part 1](https://reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/ommfn7/blackrock_the_great_reset_part_1/?) & [Part 2](https://reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/ommfz1/blackrock_the_great_reset_part_2/?) then well done, you've got some serious stamina. We're nearly there now.
|
||||
|
||||
* * * * *
|
||||
|
||||
* * * * *
|
||||
|
||||
RECAP
|
||||
|
||||
(You've probably learned by now I'm useless at short TLDRs) In Part 2 I looked at how Fidelity might have caused the Jan squeezes in 21 stocks by recalling these shares after they had been lent out for years. This would have been possible if Shitadel had rehypothecated Fidelity's shares many times over, meaning those shares were propping up a tower of phantom shares far greater than their face value. The stocks which squeezed the most in Jan were the ones that had previously undergone stock buybacks or had low total outstanding shares to start with, which makes sense as both of these things hurt short sellers. GME had undergone the biggest stock buyback out of them all, so this stock seems to have been setup to hurt short sellers the most. I carried on looking at share lending and theorized that the margin call Melvin Securities received in Jan was from companies like [BlackRock](https://i.imgur.com/EHtH9nB.jpg) & Vanguard who still had millions of GME lent out, this could also explain why the margin call was reduced; BlackRock works closely with the Fed and therefore probably with the DTCC too, so the DTCC could have persuaded BlackRock to lower their demands. I looked at BlackRock's share lending brochure and saw they were possibly the only share lender willing to accept UST bonds as collateral, and this would have given Shitadel & Co a cheap way to start shorting stock as Shitadel owns Palafox Trading which deals with UST bonds (please reading [/u/Atobitt](https://www.reddit.com/u/Atobitt/)'s ['The Everything Short'](https://reddit.com/r/GME/comments/mgucv2/the_everything_short/) for more info on this). I went on to see how BlackRock did not buy many puts during the 2020 crash unlike previous rocky periods and BlackRock went on to sell $ hundreds of billions worth of stock during the 2020 crash, only to buy most of this right back a few weeks later. Both of these points suggest to me BlackRock helped dip the markets so there would be a need for emergency action, and this led to the SLR rule being relaxed, making it easier for banks to spend during the pandemic. This measure should have been used to prop up a suffering economy, but it seems the banks instead used it to further Shitadel's shorting efforts. To me this all started to seem like BlackRock had a long term plan to allow the markets to implode, but why would Larry Fink want this to happen? We'll look at that below.
|
||||
|
||||
* * * * *
|
||||
|
||||
* * * * *
|
||||
|
||||
8\. THE GREAT RESET
|
||||
|
||||
- The Great Reset is a term that started getting flung around during the pandemic, it's the idea of building back better after the covid crisis with the goal of net-zero carbon emissions being a big part of this. We're probably all used to these kinds of ideas being thrown around without much action backing it up, but to me this seems different, there could actually be a serious plan in motion to trigger this reset and it seems BlackRock is a key player in it. [Articles like this](https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/great-reset-blackrock-fueling-120-210000214.html) suggest that BlackRock is somehow fueling a transfer of wealth worth $120 trillion to pump that money into sustainable companies:
|
||||
|
||||
> Big money is turning its back on companies that aren't conforming to one simple idea, Sustainability. And it's fueling one of the biggest transfers of capital the world has ever seen. In fact, within a year, 77% of institutional investors will stop buying into companies that aren't, in some way, sustainable. And the new King of Wall Street is leading the charge. BlackRock, with over $7 trillion in assets under management, says its clients will double their ESG investments in just five years.
|
||||
|
||||
- I don't know specifically how this redistribution of wealth is planning to work, [this article](https://www.forbes.com/sites/thebakersinstitute/2020/10/26/green-lng--a-pathway-for-natural-gas-in-an-esg-future/?sh=acaa68966e92) links off that one above and says:
|
||||
|
||||
> Already, more than 3,100 investors with $110 trillion in assets under management have signed on to the Principles for Responsible Investment, which supports its signatories in incorporating ESG factors into their investment and ownership decisions
|
||||
|
||||
- A key term in all of this discussion is ESG which stands for Environmental, Societal and Governance and these factors are used to measure non-financial issues like pollution, deforestation, gender and diversity policies, human rights, customer satisfaction, bribery and corruption, lobbying, executive compensation and many more points showing how "good" companies are at their core. If $120 trillion gets moved from low performing ESG companies to high ones, that's a positive step that we should all be able to get behind.
|
||||
|
||||
- Larry Fink has been pushing hard for CEOs to release ESG data on their companies, this year he sent [this letter](https://www.blackrock.com/corporate/investor-relations/larry-fink-ceo-letter) to CEOs, there's a lot to unpack from that letter, here's some key bits:
|
||||
|
||||
| Issues Discussed |
|
||||
| --- |
|
||||
| - There needs to be more focus on long term investment strategies with a big focus on climate change. |
|
||||
| - Fink says, "The pandemic has also accelerated deeper trends, from the growing retirement crisis to systemic inequalities" and suggests these need to be addressed |
|
||||
| - Transitioning to net zero across the board will demand a transformation of the entire economy. |
|
||||
| - Investors want to invest in ESG companies but they need better information to show which companies are good for sustainability, BlackRock is committed to accelerate their data and analysis capabilities in this area. |
|
||||
| - Companies need to disclose a plan for how their business model will be compatible with a net zero economy |
|
||||
| - A standard reporting framework should be used, which will enable investors to make more informed decisions |
|
||||
| - BlackRock is already carbon neutral in their operations and are committed to supporting the goal of net zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050 or sooner. |
|
||||
|
||||
- Larry Fink is not the only person pushing hard for ESG data to be released, [Gary Gensler of the SEC is looking into these issues too](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/23/sec-chair-gensler-is-taking-a-deeper-look-at-esg-investing-issues.html), trying to assess what information is needed from companies to confirm they comply with ESG standards. There have also been various SEC meetings about climate change recently which are undoubtedly talking about issues like this. I can imagine Larry Fink is working closely with the SEC on this.
|
||||
|
||||
- Furthermore, BlackRock has recently changed their [Aladdin system to include a climate module](https://www.finextra.com/pressarticle/85245/blackrock-unveils-aladdin-climate-module) to help track which companies are doing well on combating climate issues. To me this reiterates that BlackRock is taking this issue seriously.
|
||||
|
||||
- [This article](https://www.pioneerspost.com/news-views/20210618/capitalism-working-slowly-says-blackrock-s-larry-fink) talks about moving towards net-zero carbon emissions and has a quote from Fink that I like:
|
||||
|
||||
> "One of the most beautiful things about finance is that if finance understands a problem, that problem is brought forward. We are seeing asset owners moving more capital into more sustainable products and investments."
|
||||
|
||||
- To me that shows big money is finally taking this issue seriously. If there's a plan in motion to transfer trillions of dollars to sustainable companies, surely the US government would be commenting on this too? But no, they seem very quiet on this front. Many articles are saying they're waiting for action from the current government, with barely anything being done towards this so far. But [this article](https://thehill.com/opinion/energy-environment/528482-john-kerry-reveals-bidens-devotion-to-radical-great-reset-movement) says that last year John Kerry (currently serving as the first United States Special Presidential Envoy for Climate) firmly declared that the government will support the Great Reset and that the Great Reset "will happen with greater speed and with greater intensity than a lot of people might imagine"
|
||||
|
||||
- I may be getting too tinfoil again, but surely you can see how that could be seen as a reference to the MOASS? i.e. The government knows the markets are fucked so they let the MOASS happen, we all get our tendies (happy days) then there's a lot of rebuilding to do, they start by pumping a load of money into ESG companies and get the ball rolling. [Articles like this](https://www.theguardian.com/business/2021/jan/26/asset-manager-blackrock-threatens-to-sell-shares-in-worst-climate-polluters) show how BlackRock is threatening to pull money out of the worst polluting companies, I believe that the MOASS will be the perfect time and excuse for BlackRock to pull money out of these companies. Plus there's one extra level of support for ESG investment: us. We apes know how important climate change is, I've seen dozens if not hundreds of posts on Superstonk talking about all the good we can do post MOASS, well if we have money to spare and feel like investing, I think high scoring ESG companies will be a way to go. We could start making a real difference for this cause.
|
||||
|
||||
- There has been a lot of contention around the idea of BlackRock having people inside the current government such as [this post](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/ms4syp/blackrock_currently_has_3_exmember_inside_the/?utm_source=reddit&utm_medium=usertext&utm_name=Exceedingly&utm_content=t3_nvsoqn) by [/u/--GrinAndBearIt--](https://www.reddit.com/u/--GrinAndBearIt--/) and various other posts, and many users suggest this is a reason we should not trust BlackRock, but I come to the exact opposite conclusion. BlackRock seems to have helped set up the conditions for the MOASS and want it to happen so that there can be a radical shift towards ESG investment, the MOASS will be the perfect time for them to drop bad-ESG companies and pump that money into good-ESG companies. BlackRock working closely with the government on this is crucial to making sure it all works properly. We're talking about purposefully crashing and resetting the largest market on the planet, I definitely would not want BlackRock going rogue and doing this off their own back, knowing that they're working closely with the current government helps settle my mind that this is probably being controlled so it doesn't lead to all out catastrophe. Larry Fink is also a massive democrat and BlackRock has contributed a lot towards their party, suggesting he supports their goals and ideas. I'm going to be blunt here and say that if anyone thinks BlackRock is bad simply because of their connections to the current government, then they simply do not see the bigger picture of events happening right now.
|
||||
|
||||
- Now what if I told you that a massive shift towards ESG investment was not even the biggest change that Wall Street has planned? What if I told you there has been a plan for years for the DTCC to shift the entire stock market onto an entirely new digital system? I hope that has you interested because we'll explore this in the next section.
|
||||
|
||||
SUMMARY: The Great Reset is a term for the idea of building back better after the covid crisis. BlackRock is all for this idea and Larry Fink has been pushing for CEOs to release ESG data to show how good companies are for the environment, society and the country as a whole. The SEC is also pushing for this data to be released, so these 2 entities have similar goals it seems. I believe BlackRock has enabled the conditions for the MOASS so the markets will implode on themselves so they will need to be rebuilt, with sustainability in mind. The current government seems to want this end too and John Kerry reportedly said "the Great Reset will happen with greater speed and with greater intensity than a lot of people might imagine". I personally believe BlackRock working closely with the US government on these issues is a good thing, because it shows how they're all working together to remove corruption from the US economy. I finished by saying that the DTCC had other big plans to help remove corruption and we'll look at that below.
|
||||
|
||||
* * * * *
|
||||
|
||||
* * * * *
|
||||
|
||||
9\. CRYPTO MARKETS
|
||||
|
||||
- The DTCC has 2 ongoing projects called [Project ION](https://www.dtcc.com/~/media/Files/Downloads/settlement-asset-services/user-documentation/project-ION-paper-2020.pdf) and [Project Whitney](https://www.dtcc.com/~/media/Files/Downloads/settlement-asset-services/user-documentation/Project-Whitney-Paper.pdf), both of these are looking at digitizing assets to be traded on a blockchain system, specifically on Ethereum. Sound familiar? I genuinely thought that this idea had been missed by Reddit, but shoutout to [/u/BarTPL0](https://www.reddit.com/u/BarTPL0/) who caught it [in this post](https://reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/mysvq9/dtcc_anticipates_completion_of_prototype/).
|
||||
|
||||
- It seems Project Whitney is focussing on the digitization of securities (for example digitizing GME shares) and Project ION is more focused on improving the trading settlement cycle through blockchain technology.
|
||||
|
||||
> Project Ion explores new and alternative settlement models, leveraging the digitization of cash and re-representation of securities, and assesses a potential new accelerated settlement service option
|
||||
|
||||
- Disclaimer time, I do have a bachelors degree in Software Engineering, but when I try and explain crypto to anyone [I just end up looking like this](https://i.imgur.com/KjSj2uQ.png) so I'm just going to give a very high level overview of these and cover some of the benefits, rather than delving into the specifics of how they will function. If any wrinkly brained apes want to dedicate an entire post to Projects Ion & Whitney, I'm sure a lot of people here would appreciate that.
|
||||
|
||||
- The current stock market is built up of layers and layers of entities all talking to each other in order to transfer money from buyers to sellers. The current settlement time for stock trades is T+2, meaning traders have the current day plus 2 days to settle any buy or sell orders. A crypto stock market is capable of turning this into T+0 meaning trades could get settled on the day they're made, that sounds much more efficient right? Crypto markets also eliminate the need for stock brokers, as availability of stock is all visible on the blockchain, which is simply a ledger of trades showing which assets currently sit where and which ones can be bought or sold. This crypto style market would centralize all data for a particular stock where that information is available for everyone to see, while also decentralizing control of that data meaning no one entity can control or corrupt it.
|
||||
|
||||
- If you don't know how blockchain works here's a very simplified analogy (please skip if you already know). Think of a blockchain like a single Excel file that is stored on millions of different computers (called nodes). No one person owns that file and to change anything on it, it has to be agreed by all nodes that the change is a valid request and has the correct encryption keys. Once the change is authorized, the Excel file (aka blockchain) has the amendment made on it and all nodes then update to reflect the change. The Excel file has every trade ever made stored on it, which is why these get called ledgers. You can't simply just write anything on the blockchain file, you need the correct encryption keys to do so, and this means it's protected from malicious entities. If someone owned 1 Eth, that section of the blockchain belongs to them forever, until they decide to sell it - no one else can just come along and write over it. The underlying file for Ethereum is currently 300GB in size, and this only contains text data so that shows you how much data is stored there. It's mainly a load of encryption strings that you wouldn't be able to read, Ethereum uses Keccak-256 encryption [which you can read about on Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SHA-3) (that might help you out if you have trouble sleeping if nothing else).
|
||||
|
||||
- Shitadel has done a fantastic job this year of showcasing how susceptible the current market is to corruption. The T+2 settlement time means that any trade that fails to settle within 3 days should be marked as a "failed to deliver" (FTD), but through the magic of malicious fuckery they've been able to reset that clock so some trades are likely now T+21, T+35 or much bigger. On the topic of GME, an FTD simply means that Shitadel failed to get you a real GME share within 3 days. Ultimately if they can't find you a real GME share, they're obligated to buy the pledge back off you, but they're forced to buy this back at whatever price you set. I'm not getting into price floors or any of that stuff, but you need to understand you're in a very powerful bargaining position here. Shitadel has turned the stock market into a joke, and the T+2 settlement time wasn't even efficient to start with. This fully highlights why a new and much more efficient system is needed.
|
||||
|
||||
- Michael Bodson of the DTCC [gave this interview](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/conversation-mike-bodson-ceo-dtcc-193339186.html) which touches on the new blockchain plans, in that he says a problem of switching to a new blockchain system is the difficulty of turning off legacy systems and adopting the new one. Interestingly Bodson points out how a new DLT system would likely put the DTCC out of business:
|
||||
|
||||
> Bodson: The way Wall Street created its post trade infrastructure just means that once a trade is executed you have the whole process of clearing and settlement. The change of ownership the record keeping has to go on, it's a series of databases. We have a big golden copy but every firm has a database to have a trading database. They have an operations database they have a credit database so you have all these reconciliations that are happening all over the place with the same basic information used for different purposes. And there's no one centralized, agreed upon view of what that data says or what those transactions are what the positions are, etc etc. If you could actually just have one. Just think about the amount of work you could take out instead of doing replication of work over and over and over again. We just create massive efficiencies.
|
||||
|
||||
- That interview touches on another point Bodson says in [this article](https://www.waterstechnology.com/industry-issues-initiatives/3537491/dtcc-chief-were-going-to-disappear-as-blockchain-evolves) (boo paywall):
|
||||
|
||||
> It takes a certain level of confidence to be optimistic about your own demise. Mike Bodson has it down to an art form. The chief executive of the Depository Trust and Clearing Corporation (DTCC) is convinced, it seems, that distributed-ledger technology (DLT) will spell the end of the DTCC as the industry knows it. "From where we sit, we were created because you need a golden copy of trade records. We're going to disappear."
|
||||
|
||||
- It does seem Bodson has resigned himself to the fate that the DTCC will eventually become extinct, but I doubt this will happen any time soon. While any company chooses to trade on the current system, there's a need for the DTCC. But let's say the MOASS causes nearly every business in the US to become furious with Shitadel and how they were able to game the system for their own ends, that would surely encourage a lot of businesses to adopt the new DLT system.
|
||||
|
||||
- [Articles like this](https://www.finextra.com/newsarticle/37544/dtcc-puts-dlt-at-front-and-centre-of-shift-to-t1) seem to suggest that the current plan is to get a crypto market system with a T+1 cycle, but even that is a big improvement which could be further improved upon in the future. That article is dated Feb this year and it says "The Depository Trust and Clearing Corporation is close to completing work on a prototytpe settlement system based on distributed ledger technology, which could act as the precursor to a US move to a T+1 settlement cycle."
|
||||
|
||||
- So this system wasn't ready as of Feb 2021, but they must be very close to completion now. I would hazard a guess that the timing of the MOASS and the readiness of a crypto stock market system will go hand-in-hand, and the MOASS is being suppressed while the finishing touches are put on this. User [/u/SamBradfordSuperFan](https://www.reddit.com/u/SamBradfordSuperFan/) recently wrote [this post](https://reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/okjctq/explaining_the_gme_token_it_has_launched_the/) explaining elements of Gamestop's crypto token and how there's a need to wait for an Ethereum update, EIP 1559:
|
||||
|
||||
> It addresses one of the critical flaws in current ETH transactions, where transactions can get stalled and not complete in a timely manner if GAS fees are high, making the process more complex and uncertain and sometimes require user intervention, which has contributed to the slow mainstream adoption of ETH for ecommerce type applications
|
||||
|
||||
- The DTCC's papers include [this timeline](https://i.imgur.com/0msrQrB.png) which suggests the blockchain system was meant to be ready in 2020, I consider it likely that the DTCC are waiting on this EIP 1559 protocol update as well as they are using the Ethereum network too. Regarding the MOASS being suppressed, remember it's probably companies like BlackRock and Vanguard who do the margin calling, and they can stall this as long as they want.
|
||||
|
||||
- Speaking of BlackRock, Larry Fink used to be famously against crypto saying that Bitcoin was an "index of money laundering", but he's changed his tune on this saying that Bitcoin will be as important as the gold market in the future. In April 2019, BlackRock hired former Ripple executive Robbie Mitchnick to lead its digital assets area and as of last Christmas they were [looking to hire a blockchain lead](https://www.ledgerinsights.com/blackrock-is-hiring-a-blockchain-vp/), where the role is to make investments in digital assets and blockchain firms.
|
||||
|
||||
- The president also wanted Michael Barr, who was on Ripple's board of advisors, to be the head of the OCC. [Apparently articles like this](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-03-08/ex-treasury-official-barr-all-but-ruled-out-for-occ-nomination) say that never came about, but crypto experts do seem to be getting pushed into top positions everywhere. There are clearly plans in motion for all of this.
|
||||
|
||||
- Now I want to talk about Gary Gensler. I'm honestly very disappointed in a lot of you who have given him a hard time on Superstonk, I'm gonna say this as politely as I can; can we all please chill the fuck out with the same asinine Gary Gensler memes getting posted over and over; "dear SEC, please do your job", "it's only his 12th week on the job", "he finally found the power switch for his PC" etc. Gensler is an expert in crypto, he's taught it at MIT so he's clearly an industry expert on this stuff. He was brought on at the time the DTCC's crypto system was supposed to be ready, so he's clearly here for the purpose of helping to introduce and police a new crypto stock market system which will undoubtedly include digitized GME assets, you know - that stock you like. Please just show a modicum of dignity and respect for this man, because he's clearly here to help you, not hurt you. /rant over
|
||||
|
||||
- Gensler was brought on to replace [Jay Clayton](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jay_Clayton_(attorney)) who was the previous president's man. Chairs of the SEC are meant to serve 5 year terms, and Clayton only served 3 years before he resigned. Gensler replaced him and there was a possibility that Gensler might have only been brought on to complete Clayton's remaining 2 years, but Gensler got a brand new term of 5 years. To me that says the government really wants him here and he's here for a purpose. I believe that purpose is to introduce the US to a crypto market system.
|
||||
|
||||
- Speaking of Jay Clayton, he was made chair of the SEC by the previous president and on this appointment the president said "we need to undo many regulations which have stifled investment in American businesses". Back in 2017 when the previous president was inaugurated he was very friendly with Ken Griffin and I'd wager these two definitely had some business between them. If you look at [Shitadel's revenue by year](https://i.imgur.com/veLuZPU.png) do you see that giant leap between 2017 and 2018? I would honestly put some of that down to whatever support the previous president via the SEC was giving Shitadel. Plus this would have been perfect time to start some new big shorting plan (*cough* GME) where Shitadel had the support of the president and could help get various regulations changed or removed. I don't have the wrinkles to look into all this too much, but others can if they want.
|
||||
|
||||
- [This article](https://blog.stomarket.com/list-of-all-central-bank-digital-currency-and-stablecoin-initiatives-1bb6f6d61ea3) says that there are currently 45 countries working on CBDCs (central bank digital currencies), and yes the Fed is working on a Digital Dollar. This will likely be something Project Whitney will be looking at. I don't have the energy left to dig into this too much, so if anyone else wants to be my guest. One other point I will say here though is that I don't expect a blockchain based stock market to instantly eliminate all problems we have with the current system, we've all seen how Shitadel is somehow manipulating certain crypto currencies for their own gain. I'm sure they'll find some way to abuse digital stocks too, but in theory this should remove a lot of the current problems.
|
||||
|
||||
- I honestly don't know what Gamestop's immediate crypto announcement will be, but ultimately they're likely to trade their stock on this new DLT (distributed ledger technology) system. [Articles like this](https://www.techtelegraph.co.uk/gamestop-and-bitcoin-renewed-a-push-to-digitize-the-stock-market/) share this idea, that Gamestop is working towards digitizing the stock market, check this out:
|
||||
|
||||
> Imagine a world where you could buy stocks, bonds, derivatives, cryptocurrencies or even pieces of art, all on one exchange, 24 hours a day, seven days a week, from anywhere in the world.
|
||||
|
||||
> On this exchange, trades occur directly between two investors instead of through a complex latticework of brokers, clearinghouses and other middlemen and gatekeepers. They settle, or close, almost instantly, instead of taking up to two days. The system is cheaper, more transparent and ostensibly more open.
|
||||
|
||||
- Sounds pretty good, right? The article goes on to say how a company called Blockchain.com has already built the infrastructure needed. Founded in 2011, that company attempted to grow but was stymied because the existing financial industry wouldn't extend basic services to crypto companies. Blockchain.com had to go on to build the services themselves and today they offer trading, custody, clearing and settlement services to retail and institutional clients trading crypto. The company can now replicate every service in the traditional capital markets. So this technology isn't exactly new, but it received push back from the existing markets in the past. It almost seems like we need a big market crash so everyone can start understanding the need for this...
|
||||
|
||||
- I'm gonna finish this section by saying BE PATIENT. The DTCC are working on this new system, Gamestop might be working with them, Gensler is likely on the sidelines getting ready to introduce this new system. Plans are in motion and getting impatient about all of this does no one any good. Show mayoman Ken that your hands are made of the toughest diamond around and that you can wait patiently to bring his empire crashing down.
|
||||
|
||||
SUMMARY: The DTCC have been working on Projects ION and Whitney since 2015, which aim to bring about a new blockchain based stock market. Shitadel have done an amazing job showing how the current system can be abused and why change is needed. As of Feb this year, the DTCC's new system was not ready, and I think the date of the MOASS might be linked to the completion date of this system. Gary Gensler was obviously brought on to help manage this new crypto system, as he's a crypto expert who has taught this subject at MIT. Larry Fink softened towards crypto in recent years so I believe he would be in favor of a DLT (distributed ledger technology) market. The Fed is also looking into making their own CBDC (central bank digital currency) which I think will get called the Digital Dollar, and this is likely tied in to this new blockchain system. Gamestop's crypto announcement could well be linked to the DTCC's new system, I very much encourage other apes to dig into this stuff. Final message is BE PATIENT and trust your tendies are coming.
|
||||
|
||||
* * * * *
|
||||
|
||||
* * * * *
|
||||
|
||||
10\. Negative Sentiment
|
||||
|
||||
- I firmly believe that there has been a big FUD campaign against BlackRock for at least the past year, similar to the one we've seen with Gamestop. Ironically, I wouldn't have spotted this if it wasn't for the Gamestop FUD, that's definitely helped open my eyes and shown me you need to question even large MSM companies. How many times have you seen someone on Superstonk posting about the evils of BlackRock and how they're buying up every property in sight or how they're massive supporters of polluting companies because they've held large stakes in oil companies or how their influence is dangerous and you shouldn't trust them? What if I told you most of this is all FUD made by twitter accounts like CulturalHusbandry and other shill accounts?
|
||||
|
||||
- [Look at this post on Superstonk](https://old.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/o0mxbu/remember_blackrock_is_not_our_friend_just_an/), it's a screenshot of a Tweet with no evidence to back it up yet it got over 5k votes. I'm going to address the housing issue right now. BlackRock's real estate portfolio is tiny compared to other companies:
|
||||
|
||||
| 2018 Real Estate Portfolio |
|
||||
| --- |
|
||||
| BlackRock managed [$24 billion](https://hub.ipe.com/asset-manager/blackrock-real-estate/415464.supplier) in real estate |
|
||||
| Blackstone (an entirely different company) had over [$150 billion](https://content.fortune.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/BLA_CHART_01.png?w=810) in real estate |
|
||||
| Annaly Capital Management had [$105 billion](https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/NLY/annaly-capital-management-inc/total-assets) in real estate |
|
||||
| American Tower Corporation had [$33 billion](https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/AMT/american-tower/total-assets) in real estate |
|
||||
|
||||
- My point here is that there are there are other companies who have far bigger real estate portfolios than BlackRock, and due to BlackRock's immense AUM their amount is going to be a far smaller % proportionally. Articles like [this one](https://www.vox.com/22524829/wall-street-housing-market-blackrock-bubble) and [this one](https://misbar.com/en/factcheck/2021/06/11/no-evidence-of-blackrock-buying-up-neighborhoods) show that the idea of BlackRock buying every property simply isn't true, or at least it's greatly exaggerated.
|
||||
|
||||
- And it's not just the housing issue, every time BlackRock has an article saying something positive they're doing, two more will get released arguing the point and saying how BlackRock are hypocrites. Fink wrote letter to CEOs in 2019 saying climate change is an important issue that they need to take seriously, and then articles [like this](https://www.theguardian.com/business/2019/may/21/blackrock-investor-climate-crisis-blackrock-assets) popped up saying how BlackRock are the biggest investors in fossil fuel and that they should practice what they preach.
|
||||
|
||||
- Regarding BlackRock holding shares in polluting companies, Larry Fink likes to exercise his right to vote against company directors. [This article](https://theguardian.com/business/2020/sep/17/blackrock-votes-against-49-companies-for-lack-of-climate-crisis-progress) says: "BlackRock announced in its annual investment stewardship report that it cast more than 5,100 votes against company directors in the past 12 months to hold management to account for failing to make headway on a range of issues, from environmental goals and corporate strategy to board diversity. This was 300 more than in the previous year". This clearly shows a reason why Fink would hold stock with poor performing ESG companies, he likes to try and sway their decision making to become better. Fink often speaks out against companies for reasons like pollution, sexism, racism etc.
|
||||
|
||||
- I've been reading through some of the drivel on that CulturalHusbandry twitter account, and holy fuck I'm starting to think this is Ken Griffin behind that account. They're deeply against the current government, BlackRock and the idea of the 'Great Reset'. Seriously they wrote [this whole article](https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1403033377234690055.html) on why the Great Reset is just a scam and how the tax payer will foot the bill and how BlackRock can't be trusted. This person clearly has an axe to grind with BlackRock and they've been spewing this BS for so long that even Reddit users are picking up on it and retweeting it. My only ask here is that you do the same as you've done with Gamestop and do your own ~~double down~~ due diligence. You're a smart ape capable of googling as well as anyone, please don't take anything you read at face value anymore (this post included, research yourself!)
|
||||
|
||||
- The idea of 'The Great Reset' has also received FUD, [this UK BBC article](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/blogs-trending-57532368) shows how it went viral on Facebook last November and became a conspiracy theory. Apparently Canada's Trudeau gave a speech saying the pandemic provided an opportunity for a "reset", and that article goes on to say:
|
||||
|
||||
> "but some claimed his speech was proof that global leaders were using the pandemic as a pretext to introduce a range of socialist and environmental policies. Thousands of [previous president] supporters boosted this idea. They claimed that that a victory for [the previous president] in November's election was the only chance to thwart the so-called secret plot."
|
||||
|
||||
- I don't mean this to get political at all, I'm just showing how these ideas got spread and how the idea of the Great Reset started looking like a conspiracy. I can easily imagine that Shitadel & Co's MSM connections helped spread negative messages about this.
|
||||
|
||||
- I nearly didn't include this point as it may come across as controversial, but earlier this year (January 26 2021 to be precise) Larry Fink sent that letter out to hundreds of CEOs with the theme of ESG and sustainability, a part of his letter touches on racism and other discrimination in the workplace. Well literally just 6 days later an ex-BlackRock employee, Essma Bengabsia, wrote [this piece](https://essma-bengabsia.medium.com/metoo-at-blackrock-720b2f89f6d8) on how she suffered from Islamophobia, racism, sexism and general harassment while she worked at BlackRock from July 2018 to May 2019. It's a very well written account and the points she raises are horrible to read. You need to understand that I believe her story 100%, I've worked as a manager in 2 major banks and I've seen this kind of discrimination first hand and have had to discipline people for it, so I can fully accept this kind of thing happens in giant companies like BlackRock too. These issues are rampant and need to be taken seriously, so I trust Essma and she comes across well, but consider this: she sat on this story for 2 years and then released this within a week of Larry Fink preaching about weeding out racism and other discrimination. It could just be a coincidence that she chose to publish this right after Fink's letter. In her piece she says *"I wrote this shortly after I left BlackRock in 2019 but delayed publishing due to my own hesitation"*, so fair enough. I fully understand that going through traumatic events like that can take a long time to process and deal with, and you'll especially need to be in the right mindset to release a story like that to the world.
|
||||
|
||||
- But is it not a possibility that she had previously gone to news stations with her story, they accepted it but told her to wait publishing it until a time that fit their agenda? Within 4 days her petition had thousands of signatures and had been picked up by [Businessinsider.com](https://www.businessinsider.com/thousands-sign-petition-discrimination-former-blackrock-employee-essma-bengabsia-allegations-2021-2?r=US&IR=T). One of the authors of that article was Rebecca Ungarino who was a previous producer at CNBC and we all know CNBC is a fair and unbiased company /s. I dont know, maybe I'm coming across too tin foil hat right now but the timing of this just smells off to me.
|
||||
|
||||
- Either way, google BlackRock and you'll get a mixed bag of positive and negative messages just like with Gamestop and I don't think that's a coincidence. If Shitadel & Co know BlackRock has worked against them to cause the MOASS, then of course they'd be pissed off and would disparage BlackRock every chance they got. As DFV said in his original Gamestop thesis, "The negative sentiment is just so overdone". Please please please do your own research going forward and don't fall into the FUD traps.
|
||||
|
||||
SUMMARY: Just like with Gamestop, there seems to have been a FUD campaign against BlackRock. Everytime something good comes out about them, you'll see just as many articles saying something negative and why you shouldn't trust them. My theory is that Shitadel & Co know that BlackRock has been working against them and now they're using the same tactics as they're doing with Gamestop. My request to you here is to not take everything you read at face value and do your own research. I'm not telling you to blindly trust BlackRock, but I'm saying they might not be the monsters you think they are if you've bought into the FUD campaign. As DFV said, "The negative sentiment is overdone". Always do you own research.
|
||||
|
||||
* * * * *
|
||||
|
||||
* * * * *
|
||||
|
||||
11\. Conclusion
|
||||
|
||||
- I don't know about you but I feel like we've been on a journey together. I really hope I've helped open your eyes to some new information and maybe some of you can even go on to research further things from this post. I believe Gamestop is a unique situation that didn't happen by random chance. I think there have been moves made over at least the last 4 years to turn it into a ticking time bomb that can be used to bring down the entire global economic system, which will clear a path for a new wave of ESG investment and advancements into a new blockchain based system. I don't know when the MOASS will happen, but my personal opinion is that it's being delayed until the crypto based markets in the background are finished so there can be a smooth transition from our current messed up system to the new one. I do honestly believe 100% that the DTCC, the SEC and massive companies like BlackRock want the MOASS to happen because it will give the perfect opportunity for the new systems to come in.
|
||||
|
||||
- Apes, I believe we're a part of the latest global revolution and you are a key part of this. Your diamond hands are bringing about change and could well be helping to save the Earth by bringing about an age of ESG investment. Even if I'm wrong about everything in this post and my speculation is way off the mark, ESG is still going to be a massively important issue and if you choose to invest post MOASS I encourage you to do so with ESG and sustainability in mind.
|
||||
|
||||
Thank you for reading.
|
@ -0,0 +1,180 @@
|
||||
Know Your Enemies - Pulling Back the Curtain on Master Escape Artist Steven A. Cohen
|
||||
====================================================================================
|
||||
|
||||
[DD 👨🔬](https://www.reddit.com/r/GMEJungle/search?q=flair_name%3A%22DD%20%F0%9F%91%A8%E2%80%8D%F0%9F%94%AC%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||
0\. TADR
|
||||
|
||||
This is the second part of my Know Your Enemies series on Steven A. Cohen, you can find the first post on Gabriel Plotkin [here](https://www.reddit.com/r/DeepFuckingValue/comments/oird4r/deep_dive_into_gabriel_plotkin/). For more due diligence and relevant GME-related content, check out [wikAPEdia](https://github.com/verymeticulous/wikAPEdia#readme) on Github.
|
||||
|
||||
1\. TLDR
|
||||
|
||||
Steven A. Cohen is a piece of shit who has been dealing with lawsuits and litigations since his first wife divorced him in 1988. From the time he started his career on Wall Street, every hedge fund that he has worked for or founded has been involved in some type of illegal activity whether it be insider trading or some of time of fraud.
|
||||
|
||||
2\. Overview
|
||||
|
||||
Steven A. Cohen, known as "Stevie" on Wall Street, is an American hedge fund manager and founder of Point72 Asset Management, which is currently worth over $16 billion.[[1]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Steve_Cohen_(businessman))[[5]](https://web.archive.org/web/20160806113149/http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2003-07-20/the-most-powerful-trader-on-wall-street-youve-never-heard-of)[[12]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Point72_Asset_Management) Cohen is also the owner of the New York Mets, a major league baseball team which he bought for nearly $2.5 billion. According to Forbes, Cohen's net worth is estimated to be over $14 billion.[[22]](https://www.newsday.com/sports/baseball/mets/steve-cohen-mets-owner-1.50052417)[[25]](https://www.forbes.com/sites/jemimamcevoy/2020/09/14/billionaire-steve-cohen-signs-agreement-to-buy-the-mets/?sh=3fe045df6b09)
|
||||
|
||||
3\. Education and Early Life
|
||||
|
||||
In 1977, Cohen graduated from University of Pennsylvania's Wharton School of Business with a degree in Economics.[[3]](https://web.archive.org/web/20160806113149/http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2003-07-20/the-most-powerful-trader-on-wall-street-youve-never-heard-of)
|
||||
|
||||
Two years later, he married his first wife, Patricia Finke in 1979. Less than a decade later, they separated in 1988.[[10]](https://web.archive.org/web/20130404070831/http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2013/04/03/suit-by-ex-wife-of-sacs-cohen-revived-on-appeal/)
|
||||
|
||||
Gruntal & Company
|
||||
|
||||
In 1978, Cohen's first job on Wall Street was a junior trader for Gruntal & Company, a small brokerage firm based in New York City. In less than 10 years, Cohen was running his own trading group using $2 million of the firm's money to trade with. At that time, it was 20% of the Gruntal's capital.[[3][5]](https://web.archive.org/web/20160806113149/http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2003-07-20/the-most-powerful-trader-on-wall-street-youve-never-heard-of)[[23]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gruntal_%26_Co.)
|
||||
|
||||
In 1996, Gruntal & Co agreed to pay nearly $12 million in civil fines and restitution to settle allegations in a decade-long embezzlement scheme of $14 million involving four senior managers. However, Cohen was not implicated.[[3]](https://web.archive.org/web/20160806113149/http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2003-07-20/the-most-powerful-trader-on-wall-street-youve-never-heard-of)[[4]](https://www.washingtonpost.com/archive/business/1996/04/10/gruntal-to-pay-12-million-in-embezzlement-case/b925b0cb-d61a-4f61-a00a-1d6e9cbd5759/)
|
||||
|
||||
RCA
|
||||
|
||||
In December of 1985, Cohen spoke on the phone to his brother Donald where Stevie-boy recommended to Donald that he buys shares of RCA, the parent of NBC at the time.
|
||||
|
||||
According to a testimony that Donald later gave to the SEC, here's what Steven suggested:
|
||||
|
||||
> "I believe there might be a restructuring going on," Cohen told him, according to testimony that Donald gave later to the S.E.C. "These TV stocks were pretty hot," Donald recalled him saying. "If NBC was spun off, it could run up about twenty points."
|
||||
|
||||
Five days after Cohen's conversation with his brother, General Electric announced a takeover of the broadcaster, for $66.50 a share, which sent RCA's stock price shooting up. Cohen made twenty million dollars on the trade, according to a lawsuit that Patricia (Cohen's first wife) later filed against him.
|
||||
|
||||
Four months later, the SEC subpoenaed Gruntal & Company to launch an investigation of possible insider trading in RCA and wanted Cohen to testify.
|
||||
|
||||
In June of 1986, Cohen pleaded the Fifth Amendment at his deposition in the RCA investigation. He was never charged or sanctioned in the case.[[9]](https://web.archive.org/web/20170314013547/http://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2017/01/16/when-the-feds-went-after-the-hedge-fund-legend-steven-a-cohen)
|
||||
|
||||
Lawsuit with Ex-Wife
|
||||
|
||||
In 2013, a federal appeals court revived the lawsuit that Patricia Cohen, Steven's ex-wife, had filed against him. Cohen was 23 when he married Patricia Finke in 1979. They separated in 1988. The original lawsuit filed in 2009 accused her husband of hiding millions of dollars in assets at the time of their divorce in 1990. Steven claimed his assets totaled about $18 million, but Patricia claimed that he lied about his net worth and hid $5.5 million in assets related to a real estate investment. She also claimed that his hedge fund, SAC Capital Advisors, was a "racketeering scheme" that engaged in insider trading and other crimes.[[10]](https://web.archive.org/web/20130404070831/http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2013/04/03/suit-by-ex-wife-of-sacs-cohen-revived-on-appeal/)
|
||||
|
||||
4\. Steven A. Cohen (SAC) Capital Advisors
|
||||
|
||||
In 1992, Cohen started SAC Capital Advisors with almost $25 million according to an executive involved in the negotiations - $10 million of which was Cohen's own investment, a $2 million investment from Peter Kellogg and his firm Spear, Leeds, & Kellogg, and an additional $10 million in outside capital.[[3]](https://web.archive.org/web/20160806113149/http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2003-07-20/the-most-powerful-trader-on-wall-street-youve-never-heard-of)
|
||||
|
||||
In 2000, Goldman Sachs would acquire Spear, Leeds, & Kellogg.[[31]](http://www.fundinguniverse.com/company-histories/spear-leeds-kellogg-history/)
|
||||
|
||||
According to a former SAC trader, the firm's credo was "try to get information before anyone else." SAC's primary focus was a long-short equity strategy, but eventually branched into convertible and statistical arbitrage, quantitative strategies, and big bets on interest rates.[[5]](https://web.archive.org/web/20160806113149/http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2003-07-20/the-most-powerful-trader-on-wall-street-youve-never-heard-of)
|
||||
|
||||
Gabriel Plotkin, Cohen's protégé, started working at SAC in 2006 until November of 2014 where he started his own hedge fund, Melvin Capital. Cohen invested $200 million in Plotkin's firm.[[15]](https://web.archive.org/web/20190527120628/https://www.nytimes.com/2017/12/25/business/steven-cohen-sac-hedge-funds.html)
|
||||
|
||||
Elan Corp and Wyeth
|
||||
|
||||
In 2012, U.S. officials implicated Steven A. Cohen in an alleged insider-trading scheme. Federal prosecutors alleged that Mathew Martoma received confidential information over an 18-month period from a neurology professor, Sidney Gilman, about a trial for an Alzheimer's drug being jointly developed by Elan Corp. and Wyeth (now owned by Pfizer Inc.).
|
||||
|
||||
Cohen wasn't charged or mentioned by name. He is referred to as "Portfolio Manager A" in an alleged $276 million insider-trading scheme in a civil complaint filed by the Securities and Exchange Commission.[[6]](https://web.archive.org/web/20121120185751/http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887323713104578130930796204500.html)[[7]](https://web.archive.org/web/20121121084201/http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-11-20/u-s-charges-mathew-martoma-in-insider-trading-scheme.html)
|
||||
|
||||
Martoma worked as a portfolio manager for CR Intrinsic Investors, a unit of SAC Capital according the SEC. In mid-July of 2008, Gilman received secret data showing that bapineuzumab failed to halt progression of Alzheimer's in patients in the clinical test, the prosecutors said.
|
||||
|
||||
The doctor e-mailed Martoma a 24-page PowerPoint presentation detailing the results, which he was scheduled to present at a medical conference on July 29.[[7]](https://web.archive.org/web/20121121084201/http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-11-20/u-s-charges-mathew-martoma-in-insider-trading-scheme.html)
|
||||
|
||||
According to the SEC complaint, Portfolio Manager A authorized many of the trades based on Mr. Martoma's alleged inside information, and rejected the advice of other analysts at his firm that conflicted with Mr. Martoma's positions.
|
||||
|
||||
In particular, on July 20, 2008, after Mr. Martoma had learned negative information relating to two pharmaceutical stocks in which SAC and its affiliate had big positions, Mr. Martoma said it was "important" that he speak to Portfolio Manager A, and indicated he was no longer "comfortable" with their positions, according to the civil complaint.[[6]](https://web.archive.org/web/20121120185751/http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887323713104578130930796204500.html)[[7]](https://web.archive.org/web/20121121084201/http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-11-20/u-s-charges-mathew-martoma-in-insider-trading-scheme.html)
|
||||
|
||||
The next day, Portfolio Manager A's head trader began selling hundreds of millions of dollars of shares in the two companies, and the hedge funds later began executing negative bets against those two companies' stocks, reaping big profits and saving large losses.[[6]](https://web.archive.org/web/20121120185751/http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887323713104578130930796204500.html)[[7]](https://web.archive.org/web/20121121084201/http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-11-20/u-s-charges-mathew-martoma-in-insider-trading-scheme.html)
|
||||
|
||||
Martoma received a $9.4 million bonus in 2009.[[6]](https://web.archive.org/web/20121120185751/http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887323713104578130930796204500.html)[[7]](https://web.archive.org/web/20121121084201/http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-11-20/u-s-charges-mathew-martoma-in-insider-trading-scheme.html)
|
||||
|
||||
On July 25th, 2014, prosecutors outlined three sets of charges against Cohen's company: insider-trading charges, wire-fraud charges, and civil money-laundering charges, which could entail forfeiture of assets tied to the illegal trading.[[9]](https://web.archive.org/web/20170314013547/http://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2017/01/16/when-the-feds-went-after-the-hedge-fund-legend-steven-a-cohen)
|
||||
|
||||
Gilman testified in 2014 that he had some 40 consultations with Martoma through his consultancy arrangement with Gerson Lehrman Group. He said he'd also consulted with people at many other hedge funds, including Citadel, Caxton Associates, Magnetar Capital and Maverick Capital, and others as well.[[8]](https://web.archive.org/web/20180522042505/https://nypost.com/2014/01/24/gilman-testifies-cohen-was-real-fbi-target/)
|
||||
|
||||
Four months later, on November 4th, 2014, the government and SAC had reached a final settlement. The firm had agreed to pay $1.8 billion (a fine of $1.2 billion and $616 million in fines that SAC had already committed to pay the S.E.C.). The settlement would also include a guilty plea by SAC --- an admission, in court, that the firm had done what the government was accusing it of.[[9]](https://web.archive.org/web/20170314013547/http://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2017/01/16/when-the-feds-went-after-the-hedge-fund-legend-steven-a-cohen)
|
||||
|
||||
Insider Trading
|
||||
|
||||
At lest five other former SAC employees have been implicated in insider trading:
|
||||
|
||||
1. Noah Freeman - former SAC Capital analyst charged with insider trading. Although, in 2015 Freeman avoided prison through "extraordinary" cooperation after pleading guilty in 2011.[[26]](https://www.reuters.com/article/usa-insidertrading-sac/ex-sac-manager-avoids-prison-after-cooperating-in-insider-trading-probe-idUSL1N0VE23U20150205)
|
||||
|
||||
2. Donald Longueuil - worked for SAC Capital's CR Intrinsic in New York from July 2008 to July 2010, was accused of giving information to Freeman. He was sentenced to 2.5 years in prison in 2011 and was released in December 2013.[[26]](https://www.reuters.com/article/usa-insidertrading-sac/ex-sac-manager-avoids-prison-after-cooperating-in-insider-trading-probe-idUSL1N0VE23U20150205)
|
||||
|
||||
3. Jon Horvath *-* an analyst at SAC Capital who was charged for insider trading. Michael Steinberg was his boss and threatened to fire him if he didn't provide "edgy, proprietary" information.[[27]](https://www.wsj.com/articles/SB10001424052702303332904579224330650360814)
|
||||
|
||||
4. *Michael Steinberg -* a portfolio manager at SAC's Sigma Capital Management unit, has been described by federal prosecutors as an "unindicted co-conspirator" of Horvath, a former analyst he supervised who pleaded guilty to receiving and passing inside information. In 2014, Steinberg was sentenced to 3.5 years in prison for for securities fraud and conspiracy charges, but were eventually exonerated in October 2015.[[28]](https://time.com/103371/sac-capital-hedge-fund-manager-michael-steinberg-sentenced-to-prison/)[[29]](https://www.businessinsider.com/bharara-drops-charges-against-michael-steinberg-2015-10) In May 2017, Steinberg was looking to raise $60 million for his venture capital fund, Reciprocal Ventures I.
|
||||
|
||||
5. *Jonathan Hollander*, former analyst for SAC's CR Intrinsic division, agreed in April 2011 to settle SEC allegations that he traded on inside information about a pending takeover of the Albertson's LLC grocery chain.[[30]](https://time.com/103371/sac-capital-hedge-fund-manager-michael-steinberg-sentenced-to-prison/) He is currently the CEO of Chesapeake Advisory Group, an early stage investing and strategic advisory consulting company.
|
||||
|
||||
In 2016, an agreement was reached between the SEC and Cohen to allow him to return to the hedge-fund business in 2018. SAC ceased to exist afterwards.[[9]](https://web.archive.org/web/20170314013547/http://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2017/01/16/when-the-feds-went-after-the-hedge-fund-legend-steven-a-cohen)
|
||||
|
||||
5\. Point72 Asset Management
|
||||
|
||||
In April of 2014, Cohen quietly changed the branding of SAC Capital Advisors to Point72 Asset Management.[[11]](https://web.archive.org/web/20190326044241/https://dealbook.nytimes.com/2014/04/07/sac-capital-meet-point72-asset-management/)
|
||||
|
||||
In the wake of the government's criticism of S.A.C.'s compliance program, Point72 enacted a series of reforms to bolster internal compliance hiring:
|
||||
|
||||
1. Douglas D. Haynes as President
|
||||
|
||||
2. Timothy Shaugnessy as Chief Operating Officer
|
||||
|
||||
3. Former federal prosecutor, Vincent Tortorella
|
||||
|
||||
4. Former US Attorney for Connecticut, Kevin J O'Connor
|
||||
|
||||
5. A specialized surveillance unit composed of ex-CIA, FBI, and SEC Investigators
|
||||
|
||||
Additionally, the firm retained Palantir Technologies to provide a new tool for compliance and surveillance.[[12]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Point72_Asset_Management)
|
||||
|
||||
EverPoint
|
||||
|
||||
The firm's long/short investment divisions are Point72 Asset Management and EverPoint Asset Management. EverPoint Asset Management headquartered in New York operates a stock trading portfolio.[[24]](https://web.archive.org/web/20191206163125/https://dealbook.nytimes.com/2014/03/11/a-new-name-for-sac-capital-point72/)
|
||||
|
||||
Stamford Harbor Capital
|
||||
|
||||
In 2016, Cohen registered a new fund, Stamford Harbor Capital where JPMorgan Chase and Morgan Stanley, would handle trades for the new firm.[[13]](https://web.archive.org/web/20190527120628/https://www.nytimes.com/2017/12/25/business/steven-cohen-sac-hedge-funds.html)
|
||||
|
||||
Point72 Ventures
|
||||
|
||||
In 2016, Steve Cohen established Point72 Ventures, a venture capital fund that makes early-stage investments in Asia, Europe, Central America, and the United States. Point72 Ventures now invests in fintech, machine learning, artificial intelligence, cyber-security and core-enterprise companies.
|
||||
|
||||
In April 2018, Point72 Ventures, which invests mostly the billionaire's money in early-stage companies, is starting to evaluate prospects on the continent after putting millions of dollars into startups in the Americas and Europe. In its latest investment, the venture unit is backing a dark pool called Imperative Execution Inc., which aims to give big investors a sanctuary from high-speed traders.
|
||||
|
||||
Additionally, Acorns Grow Inc., which offers an investing and savings app for people with limited disposable income, is one of the more than two dozen investments that Point72 Ventures has made over the past two years.
|
||||
|
||||
Others include HANetf, a London-based firm that helps launch exchange-traded funds, and Extend Enterprises Inc., a New York startup that allows business cardholders to securely share their credit cards with employees and freelancers.[[20]](https://web.archive.org/web/20190403023521/https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-04-18/steve-cohen-heads-east-to-swing-big-with-venture-investments)
|
||||
|
||||
Cubist Systematic Strategies
|
||||
|
||||
Cubist Systematic Strategies is its quantitative investing business. The name was chosen as a reference to cubist art; the New York Times reported that "Cohen is a well-known art collector".[[12]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Point72_Asset_Management)
|
||||
|
||||
GameStop
|
||||
|
||||
In January 2021, along with Ken Griffin's Citadel Securities, Point72 contributed $750 million to a $2.75 billion emergency bailout of Melvin Capital due to incurred deep losses from shorting GameStop. In the first half of 2021, Cohen's $19 billion hedge fund firm was reported to have lost $500 million in its investment in Melvin Capital.[[12]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Point72_Asset_Management)
|
||||
|
||||
6\. Closing Thoughts
|
||||
|
||||
I can't believe I spent this much time investigating Cohen's life. However, with each article I read, the more rabbit holes I find myself diving deep into. This post is basically just his biography and just scratches the surface. I haven't even gotten into Cohen's financials and other investments. Constantly running from illegal activity is a tough game, don't you think Stevie?
|
||||
|
||||
⚠️ If any information is inaccurate or unclear, please let me know! ⚠️
|
||||
|
||||
# Sources
|
||||
|
||||
1. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Steve_Cohen_(businessman)
|
||||
2. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/S.A.C._Capital_Advisors
|
||||
3. https://web.archive.org/web/20190103134843/https://www.nytimes.com/2012/12/23/business/steven-cohen-of-sac-is-fascinating-to-investigators-too.html
|
||||
4. https://www.washingtonpost.com/archive/business/1996/04/10/gruntal-to-pay-12-million-in-embezzlement-case/b925b0cb-d61a-4f61-a00a-1d6e9cbd5759/
|
||||
5. https://web.archive.org/web/20160806113149/http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2003-07-20/the-most-powerful-trader-on-wall-street-youve-never-heard-of
|
||||
6. https://web.archive.org/web/20121120185751/http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887323713104578130930796204500.html
|
||||
7. https://web.archive.org/web/20121121084201/http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-11-20/u-s-charges-mathew-martoma-in-insider-trading-scheme.html
|
||||
8. https://web.archive.org/web/20180522042505/https://nypost.com/2014/01/24/gilman-testifies-cohen-was-real-fbi-target/
|
||||
9. https://web.archive.org/web/20170314013547/http://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2017/01/16/when-the-feds-went-after-the-hedge-fund-legend-steven-a-cohen
|
||||
10. https://web.archive.org/web/20130404070831/http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2013/04/03/suit-by-ex-wife-of-sacs-cohen-revived-on-appeal/
|
||||
11. https://web.archive.org/web/20190326044241/https://dealbook.nytimes.com/2014/04/07/sac-capital-meet-point72-asset-management/
|
||||
12. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Point72_Asset_Management
|
||||
13. https://web.archive.org/web/20190527120628/https://www.nytimes.com/2017/12/25/business/steven-cohen-sac-hedge-funds.html
|
||||
14. https://web.archive.org/web/20190416004840/https://dailyvoiceplus.com/fairfield/fairfield-business-journal/fairfield/two-new-executives-named-at-point72/751660/
|
||||
15. https://web.archive.org/web/20190527120628/https://www.nytimes.com/2017/12/25/business/steven-cohen-sac-hedge-funds.html
|
||||
16. https://web.archive.org/web/20200925090436/https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-07-29/cohen-s-point72-closing-to-new-money-after-raising-10-billion
|
||||
17. https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/steve-cohen-point72-raises-money-gamestop-saga-melvin-capital-2021-2
|
||||
18. https://web.archive.org/web/20180906052457/https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-03-05/point72-revamps-big-data-group-with-new-boss-after-early-stumble
|
||||
19. https://web.archive.org/web/20200528004029/https://www.nytimes.com/2018/03/17/business/point72-douglas-haynes-steven-cohen.html
|
||||
20. https://web.archive.org/web/20190403023521/https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-04-18/steve-cohen-heads-east-to-swing-big-with-venture-investments
|
||||
21. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-01-27/cohen-s-point72-loses-10-15-amid-month-s-hedge-fund-carnage
|
||||
22. https://www.newsday.com/sports/baseball/mets/steve-cohen-mets-owner-1.50052417
|
||||
23. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gruntal_%26_Co.
|
||||
24. https://web.archive.org/web/20191206163125/https://dealbook.nytimes.com/2014/03/11/a-new-name-for-sac-capital-point72/
|
||||
25. https://www.forbes.com/sites/jemimamcevoy/2020/09/14/billionaire-steve-cohen-signs-agreement-to-buy-the-mets/?sh=3fe045df6b09
|
||||
26. https://www.reuters.com/article/usa-insidertrading-sac/ex-sac-manager-avoids-prison-after-cooperating-in-insider-trading-probe-idUSL1N0VE23U20150205
|
||||
27. https://www.wsj.com/articles/SB10001424052702303332904579224330650360814
|
||||
28. https://time.com/103371/sac-capital-hedge-fund-manager-michael-steinberg-sentenced-to-prison/
|
||||
29. https://www.businessinsider.com/bharara-drops-charges-against-michael-steinberg-2015-10
|
||||
30. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-hedgefunds-hollander/former-sac-analyst-settles-insider-charges-with-sec-idUSTRE73R78O20110428
|
||||
31. http://www.fundinguniverse.com/company-histories/spear-leeds-kellogg-history/
|
@ -0,0 +1,72 @@
|
||||
What's that new rule everyone is talking about now?
|
||||
===================================================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :----: | :----: |
|
||||
| [u/npham54](https://www.reddit.com/user/npham54/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/amcstock/comments/or2wdx/whats_that_new_rule_everyone_is_talking_about_now/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
[DD](https://www.reddit.com/r/amcstock/search?q=flair_name%3A%22DD%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||
***** I am NOT a financial advisor & this is NOT financial advice. Take everything you read, see, or hear with a grain of salt. Verify it ALL with your own DD & come up with your own conclusions! *****
|
||||
|
||||
TL;DR - It's the DTCC's version of a REPO/RRP system. They want the daily profits of possible millions per day ~~of up to $45 million+~~ instead of giving it back to the FEDs. NSCC-2021-010 is not a rule, but a handbook for their new system.
|
||||
|
||||
-------------------------------------------------------------------
|
||||
|
||||
This is the next new big toy everyone is talking about huh?
|
||||
|
||||
[NSCC-2021-010](https://www.dtcc.com/-/media/Files/pdf/2021/7/22/a9029.pdf)
|
||||
|
||||
Basically what is it? I'll explain in a bit but let me share this first because it's relevant.
|
||||
|
||||
The DTCC saw that the banks and the FED are working with one another to make both parties some nice coin. We've seen REPO/RRP rates go from ZERO to .05% on money borrowed.
|
||||
|
||||
Doesn't sound like much at face value right?
|
||||
|
||||
Let's calculate just one day to use an example. We now the REPO/RRP rates are thru the roof. We've seen days where we've gone over $900 BILLION dollars in a single day. That sounds like a good round number to make an easy calculation with, so let's use it.
|
||||
|
||||
~~The current interest rate is 0.05%.~~ (Gonna verify if this is wrong, a member said that it's calculated annually. Not sure if this is right or not but will check)
|
||||
|
||||
~~$900,000,000,000 x 0.05% = $45,000,000~~
|
||||
|
||||
~~Yes, interest earned for 1 day of borrowing cost $45 MILLION dollars. I don't care how rich you are, that's a shit ton of money in less than 24 hours. Remember, this shit is happening on the DAILY!~~
|
||||
|
||||
~~If they keep making that much money each day Monday - Friday (federal holidays excluded), the interest earned is up to an eye popping $225,000,000 for a single week if they keep up with the insane amounts!~~
|
||||
|
||||
*****EDIT*****
|
||||
|
||||
<https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/RRPONTSYD>
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/8zydu119t9d71.png?width=3831&format=png&auto=webp&s=793bb45c7ee1898740b6b4530eb40c48f053c045)
|
||||
|
||||
June 30th
|
||||
|
||||
$991+ BILLION dollars in REPO/RRP agreements.
|
||||
|
||||
& here's the link to the Fed's own site where most people are pulling the data from.
|
||||
|
||||
<https://apps.newyorkfed.org/markets/autorates/tomo-results-display?SHOWMORE=TRUE&startDate=01/01/2000&enddate=01/01/2000>
|
||||
|
||||
****EDIT****
|
||||
|
||||
So you know, anyplace where there's money to be made, someone is gonna take advantage of it. Why give hundreds of millions weekly to the government when they can keep it for themselves?
|
||||
|
||||
Hence the reason why NSCC-2021-010 was brought along and OH SO QUICKLY! Too much money is NOT being moved into the DTCC's pockets!
|
||||
|
||||
WE have to remember who they truly are, basically made up of bankers & huge institutional "investors".
|
||||
|
||||
So basically all these 350+ pages of this new "rule" is actually not a rule at all.
|
||||
|
||||
It's the DTCC's own version of the government's REPO/RRP system.
|
||||
|
||||
Basically it's the handbook for the whole system they've been working on. It tells you how to qualify for the program, who can be approved, and the fact that you can "refer" other members.
|
||||
|
||||
Now remember the REPO/RRP system is meant to borrow money overnight and this does exactly the same. Instead of some treasuries, they're going to have to use their own stock assets as collateral until it's repaid with interest by the end of trading day.
|
||||
|
||||
<https://www.dtcc.com/-/media/Files/pdf/2021/7/22/a9029.pdf>
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/glbpdpgon9d71.png?width=1200&format=png&auto=webp&s=9d664905226281b15a44c98f8365feba693ea2c0)
|
||||
|
||||
EDIT - I do apologize for any mistakes or misunderstandings I may have made ahead of time. If there is, it will be corrected. Last thing I wanna do is spread misinformation, just as if not worse than FUD.
|
@ -0,0 +1,96 @@
|
||||
NSCC-2021-010 Part 2, Are They Getting Rid of FTDs for Good?
|
||||
============================================================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :----: | :----: |
|
||||
| [u/npham54](https://www.reddit.com/user/npham54/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/or8dry/nscc2021010_part_2_are_they_getting_rid_of_ftds/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
[DD 👨🔬](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22DD%20%F0%9F%91%A8%E2%80%8D%F0%9F%94%AC%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||
***** I am NOT a financial advisor & this is NOT financial advice. Take everything you read, see, or hear with a grain of salt. Verify it ALL with your own DD & come up with your own conclusions! *****
|
||||
|
||||
TL;DR - With NSCC-2021-010 the DTCC is now the bouncer at their own private little REPO/RRP system they built out of nowhere. All the rules that were passed before was balled up and thrown into this pretty little package to protect this shiny new system and it's soon to be VIP members. You can't enter unless you a VIP member and you can't be a VIP member unless you meet the minimum requirements. Not only are there requirements, but you gonna get RANKED on top of that too.
|
||||
|
||||
Get a shitty ranking, you gotta pay more to play in that system.
|
||||
|
||||
Once you're inside, if you try to do some stupid shit, they're gonna stop you dead cold, strip you butt naked, and cast your dumbass out the back door!
|
||||
|
||||
But to even make it thru the front door even after you become a VIP member, you gotta leave your wallet at the door. We don't use your crooked dollars in this system you got from God knows where (another crooked bank). You use OUR in-house funds instead.
|
||||
|
||||
Honestly read the DD, it's not very complicated. I promise it's easy to understand if you've been following along all these months.
|
||||
|
||||
------------------------------------------------
|
||||
|
||||
I posted this in the AMCStock subReddit, but it applies every bit just as much here. Enjoy my fellow APES.
|
||||
|
||||
This is an update to my earlier post.
|
||||
|
||||
<https://www.reddit.com/r/amcstock/comments/or2wdx/whats_that_new_rule_everyone_is_talking_about_now/>
|
||||
|
||||
Need to add some good news about [NSCC-2021-010](https://www.dtcc.com/-/media/Files/Downloads/legal/rule-filings/2021/NSCC/SR-NSCC-2021-010.pdf) & [NSCC-2021-803](https://www.dtcc.com/-/media/Files/Downloads/legal/rule-filings/2021/NSCC/SR-NSCC-2021-803.pdf) system/rule combo.
|
||||
|
||||
In this new system, members won't have the ability to create FTDs anymore. Since the system will hold the securities as collateral, they aren't going to have the ability to rehypothecate the shares anymore!
|
||||
|
||||
There is a specific reference to exactly this on page 4
|
||||
|
||||
<https://www.dtcc.com/-/media/Files/Downloads/legal/rule-filings/2021/NSCC/SR-NSCC-2021-010.pdf>
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/262wuxeusbd71.png?width=3844&format=png&auto=webp&s=6c2c68b0120f9c716b8a21385acf9cefd10d746a)
|
||||
|
||||
How do they stop it? Well when they want money, they need to hand over the shares and get $100 per share.
|
||||
|
||||
Then the next morning, it needs to be reversed and interest will be paid at a future determined time according to the agreement.
|
||||
|
||||
Like I said, this is pretty much exactly what happens on the daily with the FEDs and the REPO/RRP market!
|
||||
|
||||
As the securities are being held by the DTCC while the money has been lent out, the HF can't rehypothecate the shares any further as they literally need to hand dem bitches the fuck over!
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/34rvk1bwsbd71.png?width=593&format=png&auto=webp&s=54fb81ef3978be3e2ff32b739244a03ada142a46)
|
||||
|
||||
LIKE BITCH LEAVE YOUR GUN AT THE DOOR! THIS IS A FAIR MOTHERFUCKING MARKETPLACE!
|
||||
|
||||
The DTCC doesn't want the FEDs to earn that money, they can line their own pockets with it while hopefully trying to keep the market a more fair and transparent place.
|
||||
|
||||
Remember the rules passed back not too long ago? Rehypothecation, daily minimum SLD requirements. Those rules, were all rolled up and thrown together into one big new system that will help STOP the fraud that they've been committing. This system theoretically CLOSES those loopholes for good.
|
||||
|
||||
******Speculation at this point forward*****
|
||||
|
||||
And this is the DTCC's message to all of it's members:
|
||||
|
||||
"You either join this system and make money honestly with the rest of the good members, or you sit and you starve while this is the new system standard!"
|
||||
|
||||
Yes, it's that fucking bold. That's this system right here.
|
||||
|
||||
This is their way to protect the system, all of it's honest traders, without having to make a whole barrage of new rules while still allowing the old ones to be open.
|
||||
|
||||
We know that their shennanigans haven't stopped. It has slowed down and we witness this in the volume. They are literally at the end of their fucking rope. They can't keep it up much longer.
|
||||
|
||||
The rules have squeezed them hard and this is the guillotine at the end of that squeeze. That's gonna be our motherfucking MOASS!
|
||||
|
||||
The minimum requirements to be a member isn't tiny and made easy for any ol Joe Shmoe off the street to join. You gotta be QUALIFIED to join this motha! They don't want anymore shit bags into the club.
|
||||
|
||||
Damn, I gotta say I'm a little fucking impressed.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/tlhjcarxsbd71.png?width=760&format=png&auto=webp&s=eaac85ba7e986bcd657838a1296422a8cd094170)
|
||||
|
||||
We are starting to see this as everyone is unraveling the text. This is the culmination of that unraveling.
|
||||
|
||||
You don't have to believe me. You can look at the excitement in everyone's eyes as it glistens over this majestic document. Could this truly be the one ring to rule them all?
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/6jdlvyrysbd71.png?width=474&format=png&auto=webp&s=d14486e47f301ba08c57d76edfec7e4bd363b635)
|
||||
|
||||
I dunno children, patience is of virtue. We shall have to wait and see how this all plays out. The link to the rules are up there. Please by all means, go ahead and verify this yourself. Maybe you'll see it as something different.
|
||||
|
||||
Man, I'm FUCKING JACKED! You don't have to feel the same as me. I hope whatever it is you feel, it's all your own.
|
||||
|
||||
TO THE MOON APES!
|
||||
|
||||
*****EDIT*****
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/bhiormqn2cd71.png?width=1502&format=png&auto=webp&s=e43952eaf1bdb95a10abd7d45360d525f8a44140)
|
||||
|
||||
No date, need to watch to see when it lands on the Fed Reg here:
|
||||
|
||||
<https://www.federalregister.gov/agencies/securities-and-exchange-commission>
|
108
Technical-Analysis/2021-07-26-We-are-Primed-for-Liftoff.md
Normal file
108
Technical-Analysis/2021-07-26-We-are-Primed-for-Liftoff.md
Normal file
@ -0,0 +1,108 @@
|
||||
We Are PRIMED FOR LIFTOFF 🚀
|
||||
============================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :----: | :----: |
|
||||
| [u/possibly6](https://www.reddit.com/user/possibly6/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/oscnbb/we_are_primed_for_liftoff/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
[DD 👨🔬](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22DD%20%F0%9F%91%A8%E2%80%8D%F0%9F%94%AC%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||
sup apes
|
||||
|
||||
not financial advice
|
||||
|
||||
elliott wave guy here, was gonna do a super in depth post going over different sectors and wave counts to see if we can use the "peak" of other stocks in correlation to GME boom
|
||||
|
||||
got a lot of pretty colors for you, let's dive in!
|
||||
|
||||
this fits the zen vibe, with a sprinkle of hype: <https://open.spotify.com/track/5X3VpTYsESWoh80dMa60jd?si=a12838657b3a4b4a>
|
||||
|
||||
That's the next DD, just wanted to share my thoughts briefly cause I'm FUCKING JACKED!
|
||||
|
||||
First off, chart is pretty much identical from a daily candle perspective to may right before we ran in june
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/dzztlv1oknd71.png?width=314&format=png&auto=webp&s=6590af08550fa11bae32a499a62c4aa524761f74)
|
||||
|
||||
may
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/be5vjryoknd71.png?width=294&format=png&auto=webp&s=7034ecd09868f8960da66fa04f4fe33635bbc267)
|
||||
|
||||
now
|
||||
|
||||
*insert the office meme of pam saying its the same picture*
|
||||
|
||||
but it gets better.
|
||||
|
||||
surface level analysis, no matter how tf you look at spy, it's signaling a short term top.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/v61g9k48lnd71.png?width=2554&format=png&auto=webp&s=660bb0caea3e920408ff563cb62cebd8be405c2c)
|
||||
|
||||
SPY
|
||||
|
||||
not going in depth EW analysis today, technically this isn't labeled correct if this is how spy plays out from here, but idgaf. if its a wave 1 competing to the upside, wave 2 is a deep retrace anyway, vs a flat ABC correction.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/ibi53majlnd71.png?width=1836&format=png&auto=webp&s=3cafa3f4d809cc140d9cd95fd07d9567bcdf51b7)
|
||||
|
||||
divergence anyone?
|
||||
|
||||
in my last post i talked about RSI divergence signals, low and behold, look what SPY is telling us.
|
||||
|
||||
hint: lower RSI on a higher high = expect a drop
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/fc8jrszplnd71.png?width=2794&format=png&auto=webp&s=5a1ec5e3da339f27c04ce3ca1bfcf66f8cc3b528)
|
||||
|
||||
/es
|
||||
|
||||
SPY futures are DOWN since trading started today
|
||||
|
||||
but wait.
|
||||
|
||||
there's MORE?!?!
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/yupcnxaulnd71.png?width=768&format=png&auto=webp&s=18c0644f205a56d1ff340b70f5989154ae790e95)
|
||||
|
||||
wait
|
||||
|
||||
crip toe was pumped THIS AM likely to meet monday liquidity requirements. For any new apes, bit koin (idk if auto mod will censor so jus taking precaution)and GME move inversely, whenever (crip toe) runs and dumps, we can assume GME will follow with a run.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/y48ely26mnd71.png?width=2790&format=png&auto=webp&s=3dfa34873f311b59263179a6357b40541016f8c9)
|
||||
|
||||
bit koin
|
||||
|
||||
pump? check. dump? in progress.
|
||||
|
||||
visualized correlation:
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/w7deuom8mnd71.png?width=1036&format=png&auto=webp&s=cd42420031a665dcdb3118866ca25d32fd9d54f3)
|
||||
|
||||
bitkoin/gme
|
||||
|
||||
VIX barely up, but it's up. probably fill tiny gap to downside then who knows?
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/w3n5dt0cmnd71.png?width=2798&format=png&auto=webp&s=93e28d10140ecff90694221cc2095e8c9c369c97)
|
||||
|
||||
VIX
|
||||
|
||||
I also have an algo script on my TOS, take it with a grain of salt but it's decently accurate:
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/mhr6fsn8nnd71.png?width=2170&format=png&auto=webp&s=44966de5c6f401ffae0b6fb7360158cb2f136ad4)
|
||||
|
||||
daily chart long signal
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/j40v1cvannd71.png?width=2794&format=png&auto=webp&s=428470035322a35d4bda40c01c4f1a299d180818)
|
||||
|
||||
4hr long signal
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/rof2a8scnnd71.png?width=996&format=png&auto=webp&s=04daba0468d11ec39f8f2e578c1a64a425da0081)
|
||||
|
||||
1hr long signal
|
||||
|
||||
basically, uh, I'm jacked.
|
||||
|
||||
More in depth post when I have the time, I'm just mega jacked and I love sharing what I see with apes.
|
||||
|
||||
waving goodbye to cheapies 🌊
|
||||
|
||||
TLDR: GME is ready to run.
|
Reference in New Issue
Block a user