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64
00-Getting-Started/2021-07-18-Small-Recap-of-GME.md
Normal file
64
00-Getting-Started/2021-07-18-Small-Recap-of-GME.md
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@ -0,0 +1,64 @@
|
||||
A small recap of GME - Shorts are fucked
|
||||
========================================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/PowerRaptor](https://www.reddit.com/user/PowerRaptor/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/omk4ch/a_small_recap_of_gme_shorts_are_fucked/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
[HODL 💎🙌](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22HODL%20%F0%9F%92%8E%F0%9F%99%8C%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||
*The list below is how I understand the events of GME based on the DD I've read across all investment subreddits, but especially this one. Correct me if I get any parts wrong, and I'll edit*
|
||||
|
||||
* * * * *
|
||||
|
||||
* * * * *
|
||||
|
||||
The Recap:
|
||||
|
||||
1) Hedge funds colluded with market makers to short GME over 140% and likely over 200%
|
||||
|
||||
* * * * *
|
||||
|
||||
2) Hedge funds have not closed these shorts, but only hidden them in options chains, so they don't need to be reported, and have since moved on to short the stock through ETFs and other mechanics.
|
||||
|
||||
(Short the ETF and buy every share in it except for GME, to effectively just short GME EDIT: *or as *[u/dubaicurious](https://www.reddit.com/u/dubaicurious/)* explains, borrow ETFs, break them down into individual shares, and sell the GME*) This is not reportable as a GME short, hiding the true SI%.
|
||||
|
||||
This Friday, 430K (43 million shares) Deep OTM Puts expired, which were previously used to hide 43 million short shares. With this expiry, the shorts should show back up on hedge funds' books and require margin coverage, unless they deliver all of them through other mechanisms.
|
||||
|
||||
* * * * *
|
||||
|
||||
3) Lawsuits allege over 200% SI in january (at 100m shares), which was at the time well above the legal limit of 140% (source needed). This corresponds to what users in this subreddit can support using options data from January (Deep ITM calls and deep OTM puts at the same strike price)
|
||||
|
||||
* * * * *
|
||||
|
||||
4) Buy orders vastly outnumber sell orders, some days over 7:1 ratio, and apes know short hedge funds *must* buy back GME shares to close their debt. Similarly, since the price stays stable or even drops, the logical explanation is that hedge funds continue to naked short GME to avoid the price exploding upwards.
|
||||
|
||||
* * * * *
|
||||
|
||||
5) GME has not yet announced a dividend, but has revealed in their market offering prospectus that they may give a non-cash dividend. This could make it very hard for the DTC to distribute said dividend, at which point Gamestop may move their shares out of the DTC. This could trigger a short squeeze.
|
||||
|
||||
- Similarly, as hedge funds keep shorting GME, if there's a financial crash, their collateral used as margin to allow their short position may drop significantly in value, and it may no longer cover their margin requirements - this could trigger a short squeeze.
|
||||
|
||||
- Third, new regulations may make it tougher to hide shorts through obscure mechanisms, and put a more realistic or accurate number on their books, which would increase their margin requirements drastically - this could trigger a short squeeze.
|
||||
|
||||
- If the price drops significantly (say to $50 or less), Gamestop could announce a share buyback, and use some of their cash they got from the ATM share offerings to buy back more shares than they sold - this would reduce the free tradable float and spike the relative SI%. Similarly, the buy pressure from retail would increase drastically - this could trigger a short squeeze.
|
||||
|
||||
- If hedge funds keep selling naked shorts, eventually the SI%, hidden or not, will be so high that they will fail any factual liquidity check. Similarly even a cash dividend, they'd be required to pay out many times over, which would eat into their liquidity. This could trigger a short squeeze.
|
||||
|
||||
- As Ryan Cohen keeps developing Gamestop into the business it deserves to be - an online powerhouse poised to compete with Amazon, the straight up fundamental value of the stock will so obviously be above what it's currently trading at, that buy pressure increases drastically, on a global scale. This could trigger a short squeeze.
|
||||
|
||||
* * * * *
|
||||
|
||||
TL;DR
|
||||
|
||||
*So long as people refuse to sell their shares, shorts cannot avoid any of these risks, and cannot close their debt. They have a foot in the beartrap and there's hungry wildlife around.*
|
||||
|
||||
Shorts are super duper fucked
|
||||
|
||||
* * * * *
|
||||
|
||||
Did I get this right?
|
||||
|
||||
*this is not financial advice*
|
@ -0,0 +1,26 @@
|
||||
Wealth Management DD Compilation
|
||||
================================
|
||||
|
||||
[𝗥𝗲𝘀𝗼𝘂𝗿𝗰𝗲](https://www.reddit.com/r/DDintoGME/search?q=flair_name%3A%22%F0%9D%97%A5%F0%9D%97%B2%F0%9D%98%80%F0%9D%97%BC%F0%9D%98%82%F0%9D%97%BF%F0%9D%97%B0%F0%9D%97%B2%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||
1\. Overview and TLDR
|
||||
|
||||
I have been compiling, organizing, and archiving important and relevant GME content on [Github](https://github.com/verymeticulous/wikAPEdia#readme) since early 2021.
|
||||
|
||||
Below is a list of due diligence on how to manage yourself and your tendies before, during, and post-MOASS.
|
||||
|
||||
2\. Resources
|
||||
|
||||
If I am missing any useful wealth-management posts, please share them!
|
||||
|
||||
| Name | Description | Author |
|
||||
| --- | --- | --- |
|
||||
| [MOASS Preparation Guide](https://github.com/verymeticulous/wikAPEdia/tree/main/01-Must-Read/MOASS-Preparation-Guide-by-socrates6210) | In-depth guide on steps to take pre-liftoff, during MOASS, and what to do in the aftermath. | [u/socrates6210](https://www.reddit.com/u/socrates6210/) |
|
||||
| [Tax Cheat Sheet](https://github.com/verymeticulous/wikAPEdia/tree/main/Managing-Wealth/Tax-Cheat-Sheet-series-by-areallygoodsandwhich) Series | Tax advice on Income, Deductions, IRAs, and CPAs. | [u/areallygoodsandwhich](https://www.reddit.com/u/areallygoodsandwhich/) |
|
||||
| [Financial Tips for the Suddenly Wealthy](https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/comments/m6lyid/financial_tips_for_the_suddenly_wealthy/) | Useful tips for Taxes, Insurance, Legal Advice, Investing, etc. | [u/Minako_mama](https://www.reddit.com/u/Minako_mama/) |
|
||||
| [How to Keep Your Newly Minted Title of Millionaire](https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/comments/manjyo/how_to_keep_your_newly_minted_title_of/) | Guide to protecting yourself and your wealth. | [u/Exact-Introduction-5](https://www.reddit.com/u/Exact-Introduction-5/) |
|
||||
| [What to do with your Tendies - From a Financial Advisor](https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/comments/mefwc7/what_to_do_with_your_tendies_from_a_financial/) | Advice on taxes, savings, paying off debt, and long-term investing. | [u/docpapas](https://www.reddit.com/u/docpapas/) |
|
||||
| [Guide/Checklist to Getting your Legal Affairs in Order](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/mtwxuo/checklist_a_quick_and_dirty_guide_to_getting_your/) | Checklist to ensure your wealth is handled appropriately. | [u/rddtf](https://www.reddit.com/u/rddtf/) |
|
||||
| [MOASS Checklist](https://github.com/verymeticulous/wikAPEdia/tree/main/Managing-Wealth/MOASS-Checklist-by-2008UniGrad) | Step-by-step guide for pre, during, and post-MOASS. | [u/2008UniGrad](https://www.reddit.com/u/2008UniGrad/) |
|
||||
|
||||
*Check out the* [Managing-Wealth](https://github.com/verymeticulous/wikAPEdia/tree/main/Managing-Wealth) *section on* [wikAPEdia](https://github.com/verymeticulous/wikAPEdia) *for more DD!*
|
@ -0,0 +1,62 @@
|
||||
Deep Fucking Due Diligence - Compilation of Serious/Must Read DD
|
||||
================================================================
|
||||
|
||||
[DD 👨🔬](https://www.reddit.com/r/GMEJungle/search?q=flair_name%3A%22DD%20%F0%9F%91%A8%E2%80%8D%F0%9F%94%AC%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||
| Last Updated | July 21, 2021 |
|
||||
| --- | --- |
|
||||
|
||||
0\. TLDR
|
||||
|
||||
I have been compiling, organizing, and archiving relevant GME content on [Github](https://github.com/verymeticulous/wikAPEdia#readme) since early 2021. Below is a list of some of the most important due diligence created by apes with many more wrinkles than I.
|
||||
|
||||
For new and curious apes that stumble upon wikAPEdia, I encourage you to read the content from the source site. This resource would not have been able to be created if it weren't for the many intelligent apes who have worked tirelessly to create their posts and deserve your upvote!
|
||||
|
||||
1\. Overview
|
||||
|
||||
I realize that the table below does not entail all serious or important DD. If there's content that you think should be added, please let me know.
|
||||
|
||||
2\. Resources
|
||||
|
||||
| Published Date | Title | Author |
|
||||
| --- | --- | --- |
|
||||
| 2020-07-27 | [100%+ Short Interest in GameStop stock (GME) - Fundamental & Technical Deep Value Analysis](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GZTr1-Gp74U&t=1s) | [u/DeepFuckingValue](https://www.reddit.com/u/DeepFuckingValue/) |
|
||||
| 2021-03-13 | [Citadel Has No Clothes](https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/comments/m4c0p4/citadel_has_no_clothes/) | [u/atobitt](https://www.reddit.com/u/atobitt/) |
|
||||
| 2021-03-30 | [The EVERYTHING Short](https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/comments/mgucv2/the_everything_short/) | [u/atobitt](https://www.reddit.com/u/atobitt/) |
|
||||
| 2021-03-30 | [Naked Shorting Scam](https://github.com/verymeticulous/wikAPEdia/tree/main/01-Must-Read/The-Naked-Shorting-Scam-by-broccaaa) Series | [u/broccaaa](https://www.reddit.com/u/broccaaa/) |
|
||||
| 2021-04-05 | [Why We Are Trading Sideways](https://github.com/verymeticulous/wikAPEdia/tree/main/01-Must-Read/Why-We-Are-Still-Trading-Sideways-by-c-digs) Series | [u/c-digs](https://www.reddit.com/u/c-digs/) |
|
||||
| 2021-04-06 | [Walkin' Like a Duck Talkin' Like a Duck](https://github.com/verymeticulous/wikAPEdia/tree/main/01-Must-Read/Walking-Like-a-Duck-Talking-Like-a-Duck-by-atobitt) | [u/atobitt](https://www.reddit.com/u/atobitt/) |
|
||||
| 2021-04-11 | [Chaos Theory](https://github.com/verymeticulous/wikAPEdia/tree/main/01-Must-Read/Chaos-Theory-by-sharkbaitlol) Series | [u/sharkbaitlol](https://www.reddit.com/u/sharkbaitlol/) |
|
||||
| 2021-04-21 | [House of Cards](https://github.com/verymeticulous/wikAPEdia/tree/main/01-Must-Read/House-of-Cards-by-atobitt) Series | [u/atobitt](https://www.reddit.com/u/atobitt/) |
|
||||
| 2021-04-22 | [Go / No Launch Checklist](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nhh0f1/update_go_nogo_for_launch_the_checklist_keeping/) | [u/nothingbuttherainsir](https://www.reddit.com/u/nothingbuttherainsir/) |
|
||||
| 2021-05-01 | [Ultimate DD Guide to the Moon](https://github.com/verymeticulous/wikAPEdia/tree/main/DD/The-Ultimate-DD-Guide-to-the-Moon-by-sydneyfriendlycub) Series | [u/sydneyfriendlycub](https://www.reddit.com/u/sydneyfriendlycub/) |
|
||||
| 2021-05-07 | [Danger Zone](https://github.com/verymeticulous/wikAPEdia/tree/main/01-Must-Read/Danger-Zone-by-Criand) Series | [u/Criand](https://www.reddit.com/u/Criand/) |
|
||||
| 2021-05-09 | [Compilation of Market Manipulation Tactics](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/n8mizw/here_is_a_complete_compilation_documenting_the/) | [u/Golden_D9](https://www.reddit.com/u/Golden_D9/) |
|
||||
| 2021-05-23 | [We're All Fucked](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nj1guf/were_all_fucked/) | [u/CoffeeLaxative](https://www.reddit.com/u/CoffeeLaxative/) |
|
||||
| 2021-05-24 | [GME Masters' Guide](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/njwv6n/the_gme_masters_guide_a_dd_campaign_for_apes/) | [u/Blanderson_Snooper](https://www.reddit.com/u/Blanderson_Snooper/) |
|
||||
| 2021-06-05 | [Definitive Guide about Naked Shorting](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nt0ojl/everything_superstonk_knows_about_naked_shorting/) | [u/sharkbaitlol](https://www.reddit.com/u/sharkbaitlol/) |
|
||||
| 2021-06-05 | [Where are the Shares](https://github.com/verymeticulous/wikAPEdia/tree/main/01-Must-Read/Where-Are-the-Shares-by-leavemeanon) Series | [u/leavemeanon](https://www.reddit.com/u/leavemeanon/) |
|
||||
| 2021-06-07 | [Hank's Big Bang: Quant Apes Glitch the Simulation](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nu9qq9/hanks_big_bang_quant_apes_glitch_the_simulation/) | [u/HomeDepotHank69](https://www.reddit.com/u/HomeDepotHank69/) |
|
||||
| 2021-06-10 | [GME MOASS Thesis Summary 2.0](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nwqaj0/gme_moass_thesis_summary_20_summarization_of_the/) | [u/HCMF_MaceFace](https://www.reddit.com/u/HCMF_MaceFace/) |
|
||||
| 2021-06-15 | [The Bigger Short](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/o0scoy/the_bigger_short_how_2008_is_repeating_at_a_much/) | [u/Criand](https://www.reddit.com/u/Criand/) |
|
||||
| 2021-06-15 | [In Death by 1000 Cuts, SHF Just Received their 999 Cut](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/o0mn0y/in_death_by_1000_cuts_shf_just_received_their_999/) | [u/No1Important_4real](https://www.reddit.com/u/No1Important_4real/) |
|
||||
| 2021-06-18 | [The Sun Never Sets on Citadel](https://github.com/verymeticulous/wikAPEdia/tree/main/01-Must-Read/Sun-Never-Sets-on-Citadel-by-swede-child-of-mine) Series | [u/swede_child_of_mine](https://www.reddit.com/u/swede_child_of_mine/) |
|
||||
| 2021-06-21 | [Fed is Pinned into a Corner from 2008 Can-Kicking](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/o4rfnu/the_fed_is_pinned_into_a_corner_from_the_2008/) | [u/Criand](https://www.reddit.com/u/Criand/) |
|
||||
| 2021-06-22 | [The Long Con](https://pdfhost.io/v/O.YHbvSRP_TLC_THE_LONG_CON_The_markets_are_frothing_with_liquiditypdf.pdf) | [u/Con101smd](https://www.reddit.com/u/Con101smd/) |
|
||||
| 2021-06-22 | [Through the Looking Glass](https://pdfhost.io/v/KhuW5HZ~N_THROUGH_THE_LOOKING_GLASS.pdf) | [u/Con101smd](https://www.reddit.com/u/Con101smd/) |
|
||||
| 2021-06-22 | [Updated TLDR of Regulations](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/o5mhie/tldr_regulations_edition_updated_20210622_to/) | [u/stevetheimpact](https://www.reddit.com/u/stevetheimpact/) inspired by [u/MATTATI2OO5](https://www.reddit.com/u/MATTATI2OO5/) |
|
||||
| 2021-07-02 | [More Evidence Pointing to the use Deep ITM CALLs and Deep OTM PUTs to hide SI](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/oc4f79/well_there_it_is_more_mathevidence_pointing_to/) | [u/Criand](https://www.reddit.com/u/Criand/) |
|
||||
| 2021-07-14 | [A Castle of Glass](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/ok2e0b/a_castle_of_glass_game_on_anon/) | [u/3for100Specials](https://www.reddit.com/u/3for100Specials/) |
|
||||
| 2021-07-19 | [OTM PUTs are Passed Puck of Short Positions & Price Movements are around Monthly Options](https://www.reddit.com/r/DDintoGME/comments/on9fnx/otm_puts_are_the_passed_puck_of_short_positions/) | [u/Criand](https://www.reddit.com/u/Criand/) |
|
||||
|
||||
*For more important DD and other relevant GME content, check out* [wikAPEdia](https://github.com/verymeticulous/wikAPEdia#readme)*!*
|
||||
|
||||
Disclaimer: I am not a financial advisor, nor is this financial advise. I'm just an ape who has OCD and likes to organize things.
|
||||
|
||||
Edit 1: Added [u/sydneyfriendlycub](https://www.reddit.com/u/sydneyfriendlycub/)'s ultimate DD Guide to the Moon series
|
||||
|
||||
Edit 2: Removed outdated/defunct due diligence
|
||||
|
||||
Edit 3: Added [u/Criand](https://www.reddit.com/u/Criand/)'s More Math/Evidence that SHFs are hiding SI post
|
||||
|
||||
Edit 4: Updated [u/HCMF_MaceFace](https://www.reddit.com/u/HCMF_MaceFace/)'s GME MOASS Thesis Summary to the latest version
|
@ -0,0 +1,59 @@
|
||||
Deep Fucking Resources - Compilation of Tools, Websites, and other Information
|
||||
==============================================================================
|
||||
|
||||
[Resource 🔬](https://www.reddit.com/r/GMEJungle/search?q=flair_name%3A%22Resource%20%F0%9F%94%AC%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||
| Last Updated | July 21, 2021 |
|
||||
| --- | --- |
|
||||
|
||||
0\. Preface
|
||||
|
||||
This is a follow up to [u/Truffluscious](https://www.reddit.com/u/Truffluscious/)'s resources page.
|
||||
|
||||
Disclaimer: This is not financial advise, nor am I a financial advisor. I just have OCD and like to organize things.
|
||||
|
||||
1\. Overview
|
||||
|
||||
Since January, I have been saving, bookmarking, and archiving important GME content and relevant information on [Github](https://github.com/verymeticulous/wikAPEdia#readme) to both organize what I've learned and read, and create a backup in case the internet breaks.
|
||||
|
||||
Below is a list of websites, tools, and resources that have been used to create DD and other GME-content.
|
||||
|
||||
If I am missing any useful or relevant tools, please share them so that I can update this post and [wikAPEdia](https://github.com/verymeticulous/wikAPEdia#readme) for new and curious apes in the future.
|
||||
|
||||
Also, if I missed giving credit to the creators of these tools, please let me know as well!
|
||||
|
||||
Hope this helps!
|
||||
|
||||
2\. Resources
|
||||
|
||||
| Name | Description |
|
||||
| --- | --- |
|
||||
| [GME DD](https://gmedd.com/) | Resource that aggregates a compilation of GME due diligence. |
|
||||
| [GME Timeline](https://gmetimeline.com/) | Comprehensive timeline of GME-related events. |
|
||||
| [GME Technical Analysis](https://www.investing.com/equities/gamestop-corp-technical) | Tracks technical analysis, news, and other insights for a particular stock. |
|
||||
| [IBorrowDesk](https://iborrowdesk.com/report/GME) | Monitors borrow rates and availability using Interactive Broker's freely available data. |
|
||||
| [Stonk-O-Tracker](https://gme.crazyawesomecompany.com/) | Tracks available shares to borrow, options data, FTDs, and more. |
|
||||
| [Where are the Shares?](https://wherearetheshares.com/) | Tool that monitors FTDs. |
|
||||
| [SEC - Fails-to-Deliver Data](https://www.sec.gov/data/foiadocsfailsdatahtm) | Website that provides FTD data. |
|
||||
| [GME ETFs](https://www.etf.com/stock/GME) | Tracks how many ETFs hold GME. |
|
||||
| [ETF Channel](https://www.etfchannel.com/symbol/gme/) | Website that shows ETF holdings of a particular stock. |
|
||||
| [NASDAQ Short Interest](https://www.nasdaqtrader.com/Trader.aspx?id=ShortInterest#) | Provides short interest data for mid-month and end of month settlement dates for a particular stock. |
|
||||
| [Ortex - Short Interest](https://www.ortex.com/symbol/NYSE/GME/short_interest) | Dashboard that show short interest data. |
|
||||
| [NASDAQ - Real Time Trades](https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/stocks/gme/latest-real-time-trades) | Tool to monitor real time trades. |
|
||||
| [S&P 500 Heatmap](https://finviz.com/map.ashx) | Website that allows you to observe when Hedge Funds are liquidating in which sector(s). |
|
||||
| [Holdings Channel](https://www.holdingschannel.com/bystock/?symbol=gme) | Displays a list of funds holding GME. |
|
||||
| [Fintel - GME Institutional Ownership](https://fintel.io/so/us/gme) | Dashboard that shown ownership data, short interest %, and other reports. |
|
||||
| [FINRA - Morningstar](http://finra-markets.morningstar.com/MarketData/EquityOptions/detail.jsp?query=14%3A0P000002CH&sdkVersion=2.60.0) | Tracks equity and options data along with other information. |
|
||||
| [Yahoo - GME Historical Data](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/GME/history?p=GME) | Shows a running history of GME previous open and closing prices, volume, etc. |
|
||||
| [Tiingo - GME Overview](https://www.tiingo.com/gme/overview) | A financial research platform dedicated to creating innovative financial tools for all. |
|
||||
| [Superstonk Quants](https://www.superstonkquant.org/) | Open-source resource that aims to provide quantitative analysis on the market. |
|
||||
| [Quiver Quantitative](https://www.quiverquant.com/) | Website created by [u/pdwp90](https://www.reddit.com/u/pdwp90/) that aggregates alternative data and visualizes it into dashboards. Read more [here](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/mlevq3/ive_been_scraping_data_used_by_hedge_funds_for/). |
|
||||
| [Gamestonk Terminal](https://www.reddit.com/r/DDintoGME/comments/mxl0co/move_over_bloomberg_terminal_here_comes_gamestonk/) | Bloomberg-like Terminal created by [u/SexyYear](https://www.reddit.com/u/SexyYear/) |
|
||||
| [Stockgrid - Dark Pool Data](https://www.stockgrid.io/darkpools) | Dashboard that shows dark pool data. |
|
||||
| [NASDAQ - Reg SHO Threshold List](https://www.nasdaqtrader.com/Trader.aspx?id=RegSHOThreshold) | List that displays securities that are currently on threshold. |
|
||||
| [Repo and Reverse Repo Operations](https://apps.newyorkfed.org/markets/autorates/tomo-results-display?SHOWMORE=TRUE&startDate=01/01/2000&enddate=01/01/2000) | Tracks ON-RRP and participants daily. |
|
||||
| [Buffet Indicator](https://currentmarketvaluation.com/models/buffett-indicator.php) | Resource that depicts when the market is overvalued or undervalued. |
|
||||
| [Advisor Perspectives](https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2021/06/04/the-s-p-500-dow-and-nasdaq-since-their-2000-highs) | Shows inflation-adjusted charts of the S&P 500, Dow 30, and Nasdaq. |
|
||||
| [DTCC - SEC Rule Filings](https://www.dtcc.com/legal/sec-rule-filings) | Lists rule filings from major institutions. |
|
||||
| [US Senate Stock Watcher](https://senatestockwatcher.com/) | Website created by [u/rambat1994](https://www.reddit.com/u/rambat1994/) that tracks stock trades of US Senate Members. |
|
||||
| [US House of Representatives Stock Watcher](https://housestockwatcher.com/) | Website created by [u/rambat1994](https://www.reddit.com/u/rambat1994/) that tracks stock trades of US House of Representatives. |
|
@ -1,9 +0,0 @@
|
||||
# I Am Not a Financial Advisor PDF
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [@iamnotafinadv](https://www.twitter.com/iamnotafinadv) | [Source](https://iamnotafinancialadvisor.com/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
[GMEv14.zip](https://github.com/verymeticulous/wikAPEdia/files/6764891/GMEv14.zip)
|
@ -66,8 +66,6 @@
|
||||
| [Superstonk](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/) | | 🚨 [Superstonk Emergency Broadcast](https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCI4EET9NJPWxUuXGlG6fxPA) 🚨 |
|
||||
| [u/DeepFuckingValue](https://www.reddit.com/user/DeepFuckingValue/) | [@TheRoaringKitty](https://twitter.com/theroaringkitty?lang=en) | [Roaring Kitty](https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC0patpmwYbhcEUap0bTX3JQ) |
|
||||
| Ryan Cohen | [@ryancohen](https://twitter.com/ryancohen) | |
|
||||
| [RedChessQueen](https://www.reddit.com/user/redchessqueen99/) | [@RedChessQueen99](https://twitter.com/RedChessQueen99) | |
|
||||
| [Rensole](https://www.reddit.com/user/rensole/) | [@rensole](https://twitter.com/ryancohen) | |
|
||||
| [HeyItsPixel](https://www.reddit.com/user/HeyItsPixeL/) | [@heyitspixel69](https://twitter.com/heyitspixel69) | |
|
||||
| [PinkCatsOnAcid](https://www.reddit.com/user/pinkcatsonacid/) | [@PinkCatsOnAcid](https://twitter.com/PinkCatsOnAcid) | |
|
||||
| [Dennis Kelleher](https://www.reddit.com/user/WallSt4MainSt/) | [@BetterMarkets](https://twitter.com/BetterMarkets) | |
|
||||
|
@ -0,0 +1,219 @@
|
||||
[Speculative] Piecing together the ITM CALLs and the OTM PUTs. Melvin was margin called on January 25th, so they swapped risk to Citadel. Melvin bought up those OTM PUTs from Citadel hoping to profit off of their original shorts, but the expirations of the OTM PUTs do nothing.
|
||||
=====================================================================================================================================================================================================================================================================================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :----: | :----: |
|
||||
| [u/Criand](https://www.reddit.com/user/Criand/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/orr9tf/speculative_piecing_together_the_itm_calls_and/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
|
||||
[Possible DD 👨🔬](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22Possible%20DD%20%F0%9F%91%A8%E2%80%8D%F0%9F%94%AC%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||
0\. Preface
|
||||
|
||||
I am not a financial advisor. I do not provide financial advice.
|
||||
|
||||
This post is speculative - and warrants discussion. I'm mainly looking for the answers to the following questions, and (I think) they are answered by this post. But who knows for sure since there is a lot of data and information that we can't see. I'd like to stir the pot and see if anyone can find holes or come up with a better answer.
|
||||
|
||||
I've been discussing this with a few others on Discord. Notably "Assets" was the one who described the risk-swap theory. I wanted to try to piece the theory together with the data we see for further discussion.
|
||||
|
||||
TLDR / Questions In Mind:
|
||||
|
||||
- TLDR: Melvin was the most overextended of all of the SHFs (including Citadel HF and Point72). Melvin got margin called when GME opened at $96 on January 25th, an increase from January 22nd's close of $65.01. So, Melvin required a cash injection of $2.75 Billion to meet the margin call. Since the retail rally wasn't letting up, they had to swap risk from Melvin to avoid continuous margin calls. Melvin closed their short position and ate the 53% loss. Citadel opened up a new short position to help Melvin close their shorts through ITM CALLs. Citadel then sells Melvin OTM PUTs so that Melvin can potentially profit off of their short position again when $GME goes down. As those PUTs expire, Melvin loses out on profits and Citadel is left holding a larger bag. Point72 and Citadel both aided in the injection, so they both most likely are exposed to GME shorts as well and had an interest in Melvin staying alive. Point72 was "down 15%" in January and could be the reason the price drops from $350, which is potentially Point72's margin call price. It's taking forever to squeeze because Citadel is holding the main bag.
|
||||
|
||||
- Q: Why did SI% drop and not go up?
|
||||
|
||||
- A: Melvin, the most overextended of the SHFs, did close out their short position by transferring the short position to Citadel whom is harder to squeeze. Melvin did this through ITM CALLs to obtain shares to close with, while Citadel borrowed shares it hadn't located yet in order to satisfy the CALLs. They had to do this due to illiquidity of the stock and avoid driving the price through a market order. This opened a new short position on Citadel's end. Citadel can presumably can-kick the short position that they took the bag of so that it doesn't appear on SI% due to special market making privileges. But, as the price remains high, Citadel remains the bagholder because that transferred short position remains open.
|
||||
|
||||
- Q: Why are there a ton of OTM PUTs that expire and do nothing?
|
||||
|
||||
- A: The OTM PUTs are presumably Covered PUTs that Citadel sold back to Melvin which are covered by the short position that Citadel opened when they transferred the risk. It allows Melvin to potentially profit off of their original short position again. Upon expiration Melvin loses out on their potential profits, and Citadel holds a larger portion of the bag. Remember - when hiding FTDs you're simply resetting the timer of T+2. You cannot "hide" an FTD in an option for an extended amount of time. Only reset the timer. So, the OTM PUTs are most likely a play by Melvin to profit off of the price dropping since they ate a 53% loss.
|
||||
|
||||
- Q: Why are they not opening any more OTM PUTs?
|
||||
|
||||
- A: The transfer of risk has already been completed and Melvin ate the 53% loss. Them opening the mass amount of PUTs in January could have been an overconfidence play, thinking that retail would have sold and GameStop would have decayed enough in price to churn profits off of the PUTs. Seeing how retail isn't letting up, Melvin is giving up and leaving Citadel to hold the bag. There's no reason to open up more worthless PUTs against their original short position if Melvin is no longer holding the bag and it no longer looks like a profitable play.
|
||||
|
||||
- Q: Why did nearly 130 million shares worth of ITM CALLs get traded in January?
|
||||
|
||||
- A: The "buy-write" transaction is defined by the SEC as being used to reset a failure to deliver. At the time, there were only 3 million FTDs on record and yet 130 million shares worth of ITM CALLs being traded. There was no reason to have that large of a discrepancy in FTDs and ITM CALLs unless the trade's purpose was for something other than a reset. Best possible other scenario is that the ITM CALLs were used to transfer risk to Citadel by delivering shares to Melvin due to illiquidity in the market.
|
||||
|
||||
- Q: Why was Melvin down ~53% (GME = $96.73), then up ~22% in February (GME = ~$50), and then back down ~50% (GME = $180+)? Shouldn't they have much more losses?
|
||||
|
||||
- A: If they performed the swap of risk by 'locking in' their losses of 53%, then the highest losses Melvin could post is roughly 53% regardless of how high GME goes. If Melvin was still holding the original short position, then we should see their losses way higher than 53% because GME was $96.73 at the time of that reporting, and GME was trading >=$180 for a while now. The OTM PUTs that Melvin opened after locking in the 53% losses increased in value to give them 22% gains. But, as all of those PUTs expire worthless, Melvin goes back towards the locked-in 53% loss. It would be pretty sad if they gained 22% and then lost it all despite the general market having an insane rally from February to July.
|
||||
|
||||
[![r/Superstonk - [Speculative] Piecing together the ITM CALLs and the OTM PUTs. Melvin was margin called on January 25th, so they swapped risk to Citadel. Melvin bought up those OTM PUTs from Citadel hoping to profit off of their original shorts, but the expirations of the OTM PUTs do nothing.](https://preview.redd.it/ntgtqv2nghd71.png?width=1904&format=png&auto=webp&s=ac413549e2eee426a5ce9243b08699d6de8be56f)](https://preview.redd.it/ntgtqv2nghd71.png?width=1904&format=png&auto=webp&s=ac413549e2eee426a5ce9243b08699d6de8be56f)
|
||||
|
||||
The markets are very open and transparent, am I right?
|
||||
|
||||
1\. Price Injection on January 25th. Melvin Margin Called @ $96.73
|
||||
|
||||
Melvin Capital was established in late 2014, and Mr. Plotkin has stated that the fund has an "intense focus" on the short side (i.e. short selling). They also have posted insane returns ever since being founded:
|
||||
|
||||
> In its first full year in operation, Melvin Capital had returns of 47%, ranking it 2nd in Bloomberg's 2015 list of top-performing funds with $1 billion or more in assets under management.
|
||||
>
|
||||
> In 2017, the fund finished up 41%.
|
||||
|
||||
Amazing. These guys churned out insane profits multiple years in a row to grow from $1 Billion in value to over $22 Billion by the end of 2020 (22x).
|
||||
|
||||
[![r/Superstonk - [Speculative] Piecing together the ITM CALLs and the OTM PUTs. Melvin was margin called on January 25th, so they swapped risk to Citadel. Melvin bought up those OTM PUTs from Citadel hoping to profit off of their original shorts, but the expirations of the OTM PUTs do nothing.](https://preview.redd.it/nkg6g66pghd71.png?width=1502&format=png&auto=webp&s=8cc5eb348bc5d501c8d5a4999e07714bc691a30c)](https://preview.redd.it/nkg6g66pghd71.png?width=1502&format=png&auto=webp&s=8cc5eb348bc5d501c8d5a4999e07714bc691a30c)
|
||||
|
||||
https://fintel.io/i/melvin-capital-management-lp
|
||||
|
||||
If you plot when Melvin was first established on $GME and then watch how the price behaves, it seems pretty clear that Melvin and others started mass shorting and driving $GME into the ground.
|
||||
|
||||
[![r/Superstonk - [Speculative] Piecing together the ITM CALLs and the OTM PUTs. Melvin was margin called on January 25th, so they swapped risk to Citadel. Melvin bought up those OTM PUTs from Citadel hoping to profit off of their original shorts, but the expirations of the OTM PUTs do nothing.](https://preview.redd.it/4olph0sqghd71.png?width=2428&format=png&auto=webp&s=83308c7b1c90bbc301746ea5b341dfa9863e8b7d)](https://preview.redd.it/4olph0sqghd71.png?width=2428&format=png&auto=webp&s=83308c7b1c90bbc301746ea5b341dfa9863e8b7d)
|
||||
|
||||
GME Price Since 2014
|
||||
|
||||
By shorting between the prices of $48 and $3, it leaves Melvin exposed to a rather low margin call price, given 100% margin requirements. Especially if they were way overextended compared to Point72 and Citadel.
|
||||
|
||||
On January 22nd, $GME closed at $65.01 and then opened on January 25th at $96.73. This was a massive jump in price, and Melvin most likely got margin called. In order to avoid being liquidated, Melvin was (presumably) asked to post around $2.75 Billion to their account.
|
||||
|
||||
Which is then where Citadel and Point72 come in...
|
||||
|
||||
The three of them are probably all short GameStop. But, Melvin was the psycho of the group who decided to short it way more than they should have shorted. All three of them knowing the true SI% and figuring they're all fucked if Melvin falls, they decide to bail out Melvin from the margin call so that they have enough time to swap the risk away from Melvin to prevent further margin calls.
|
||||
|
||||
Point72 was (not) suspiciously down 15% in January. A situation that they refused to comment on. This was when GameStop was trading at roughly $96.73. Knowing that Melvin was most likely margin called around $96.73, I wouldn't be surprised if Point72 was the ones who were going to be margin called around the $350 price point and that's why the price has flash crashed from there multiple times.
|
||||
|
||||
[![r/Superstonk - [Speculative] Piecing together the ITM CALLs and the OTM PUTs. Melvin was margin called on January 25th, so they swapped risk to Citadel. Melvin bought up those OTM PUTs from Citadel hoping to profit off of their original shorts, but the expirations of the OTM PUTs do nothing.](https://preview.redd.it/6d5bdqesghd71.png?width=881&format=png&auto=webp&s=4a6dfce72eafc6236d78a886b08a3578f555ad83)](https://preview.redd.it/6d5bdqesghd71.png?width=881&format=png&auto=webp&s=4a6dfce72eafc6236d78a886b08a3578f555ad83)
|
||||
|
||||
Point72 Loses 15% by January 25th (GME = $96.73)
|
||||
|
||||
At this point, it was in Citadel and Point72's best interest if Melvin does not get liquidated and forced to cover. Instead, it is in their best interest if Melvin is bailed out and then a swap of risk of the short position occurs. The swap of risk to Citadel, the market maker, can hold the bag since they're harder to squeeze and they have special privileges.
|
||||
|
||||
But, the only way for their plan to fully work is if retail sells. Otherwise, Citadel is continuously holding a massive short position from their overextended friend Melvin once the risk swap occurs. In the end, it is their best and only option. Take on the risk because if they don't they'll all fall and be gobbled up.
|
||||
|
||||
To put in summary so far:
|
||||
|
||||
1. Melvin has most likely been shorting GameStop since Melvin's inception in late 2014. Point72 and Citadel must have joined in on the fun and generated their own bags of short positions of $GME.
|
||||
|
||||
2. Melvin accrued a massive bag of shorts, causing them to be margin called when $GME closed at $65.01 on January 22nd and then opened at $96.73 on January 25th. They posted a loss of 53% ($12.5 Billion) at this time.
|
||||
|
||||
3. Point72 and Citadel send $2.75 Billion to Melvin so that Melvin avoids being liquidated, which would have forced Melvin to close their short positions on open market. This allows Melvin to swap the risk of the short position to Citadel and get Melvin out of the picture while the retail rally isn't letting up. Thus, Point72 and Citadel the Hedgefund are saved.
|
||||
|
||||
[![r/Superstonk - [Speculative] Piecing together the ITM CALLs and the OTM PUTs. Melvin was margin called on January 25th, so they swapped risk to Citadel. Melvin bought up those OTM PUTs from Citadel hoping to profit off of their original shorts, but the expirations of the OTM PUTs do nothing.](https://preview.redd.it/0uqf5xqtghd71.png?width=691&format=png&auto=webp&s=01e5e422d46e1bac164a9740b8c3752f99122e78)](https://preview.redd.it/0uqf5xqtghd71.png?width=691&format=png&auto=webp&s=01e5e422d46e1bac164a9740b8c3752f99122e78)
|
||||
|
||||
Losses + Injection
|
||||
|
||||
[![r/Superstonk - [Speculative] Piecing together the ITM CALLs and the OTM PUTs. Melvin was margin called on January 25th, so they swapped risk to Citadel. Melvin bought up those OTM PUTs from Citadel hoping to profit off of their original shorts, but the expirations of the OTM PUTs do nothing.](https://preview.redd.it/91tnb4zughd71.png?width=1020&format=png&auto=webp&s=6acb6f7a81dd022c06cedab268d3857254f3df41)](https://preview.redd.it/91tnb4zughd71.png?width=1020&format=png&auto=webp&s=6acb6f7a81dd022c06cedab268d3857254f3df41)
|
||||
|
||||
Injection between Citadel and Melvin
|
||||
|
||||
2\. Melvin The Most Overextended - Swap Risk to Citadel with ITM CALLs and lock in 53% loss.
|
||||
|
||||
After receiving the injection of $2.75 billion when $GME was trading at $96.73, Melvin is saved from failing the margin call and from being liquidated.
|
||||
|
||||
A problem still remains: if $GME continues to rally higher above $96.73, then Melvin will continue to be margin called and forced to post more and more liquidity to their account.
|
||||
|
||||
Thus, a transfer of risk must be performed. The best party to transfer the risk to is Citadel the Market Maker, as they have special privileges as a Market Maker and thus are harder to squeeze. The transfer of risk is done by closing out Melvin's original short position with Citadel's market making privileges of borrowing without locating shares for the sake of liquidity. Those "shares" are then sent to Melvin through ITM CALLs. By not locating the shares, this opens up a short position on Citadel's end.
|
||||
|
||||
What happened between the cash injection and Melvin reporting that they closed out of their position?:
|
||||
|
||||
- Upon January 25th, Melvin receives its cash injection of $2.75 billion to avoid being liquidated due to a margin call.
|
||||
|
||||
- By the end of January 26th, Melvin has closed out of their GameStop short position.
|
||||
|
||||
- During the January runup, close to 1.1 million ITM CALLs were traded and exercised in the same day. These ITM CALLs are how the transfer of risk can be made.
|
||||
|
||||
[![r/Superstonk - [Speculative] Piecing together the ITM CALLs and the OTM PUTs. Melvin was margin called on January 25th, so they swapped risk to Citadel. Melvin bought up those OTM PUTs from Citadel hoping to profit off of their original shorts, but the expirations of the OTM PUTs do nothing.](https://preview.redd.it/yk9p3uywghd71.png?width=727&format=png&auto=webp&s=650aea0a1fe96261ed42b82df05a57b821a8c4fe)](https://preview.redd.it/yk9p3uywghd71.png?width=727&format=png&auto=webp&s=650aea0a1fe96261ed42b82df05a57b821a8c4fe)
|
||||
|
||||
ITM CALLs and Close Out of Short Position. ITM CALL chart per /u/broccaaa
|
||||
|
||||
What most likely happened here is that Melvin did indeed close out their short position by locking in the 53% loss ($12.5 Billion) through the use of Citadel the Market Maker. But... the short position is now in Citadel's hands and Citadel is now holding the bag. The whole purpose of this to prevent Melvin from tumbling and bringing them all down. This swap of risk was done with the following steps:
|
||||
|
||||
1. Melvin buys ITM CALLs from Citadel. They use deep ITM CALLs with little to no OI + volume so that the trade is almost guaranteed between the two parties. This locks in their losses of 53%.
|
||||
|
||||
2. Citadel does not have the shares for the CALLs that are going to be exercised. So, they borrow shares without first locating them to feed into the ITM CALLs. Citadel can do this due to being a bonafide Market Maker.
|
||||
|
||||
3. Melvin exercises the ITM CALLs to get the shares from Citadel. Melvin then uses these shares to close out their short position.
|
||||
|
||||
4. Citadel is left holding the bag of the original short position and Melvin is now prevented from further margin calls. The riskiest domino out of Melvin, Point72, and Citadel (HF) is taken off of the table.
|
||||
|
||||
[![r/Superstonk - [Speculative] Piecing together the ITM CALLs and the OTM PUTs. Melvin was margin called on January 25th, so they swapped risk to Citadel. Melvin bought up those OTM PUTs from Citadel hoping to profit off of their original shorts, but the expirations of the OTM PUTs do nothing.](https://preview.redd.it/uep65mpyghd71.png?width=1020&format=png&auto=webp&s=d96d526b60d0a6df30133d88dac22eb94682ee72)](https://preview.redd.it/uep65mpyghd71.png?width=1020&format=png&auto=webp&s=d96d526b60d0a6df30133d88dac22eb94682ee72)
|
||||
|
||||
Swap of risk between Melvin and Citadel
|
||||
|
||||
3\. Allow Melvin to potentially make profit again with OTM PUTs by repositioning the portfolio.
|
||||
|
||||
Not wanting to completely shaft Melvin now that they've closed out of their position and cannot profit off of $GME on the way back down, Melvin is given an opportunity to profit off of their original shorts.
|
||||
|
||||
Citadel can feed the short position that they opened from the risk swap back into OTM PUTs to sell them as covered PUTs. These PUTs can be bought up by Melvin and then exercised if the price gets low enough, allowing Melvin to regain their 53% losses and possibly more profits. In essence, the whole trade would basically be a balance sheet swap where Melvin is simply repositioned to still have their short position.
|
||||
|
||||
After transitioning the risk, Melvin (and the others) don't have to worry about further margin calls and Melvin only has to spend a couple pennies worth to buy up the OTM PUTs from Citadel.
|
||||
|
||||
[![r/Superstonk - [Speculative] Piecing together the ITM CALLs and the OTM PUTs. Melvin was margin called on January 25th, so they swapped risk to Citadel. Melvin bought up those OTM PUTs from Citadel hoping to profit off of their original shorts, but the expirations of the OTM PUTs do nothing.](https://preview.redd.it/frkxgab0hhd71.png?width=1021&format=png&auto=webp&s=66e8245539f9216e60471aed2cd9e8d58aa212ec)](https://preview.redd.it/frkxgab0hhd71.png?width=1021&format=png&auto=webp&s=66e8245539f9216e60471aed2cd9e8d58aa212ec)
|
||||
|
||||
Melvin Repositioning of Short Position
|
||||
|
||||
And given their testimony, Melvin isn't technically lying when they say that they've "closed out of their position" and that they "repositioned the portfolio". Through a swap of risk and then opening the OTM PUTs, Melvin has closed out of their short position and then repositioned their short position exposure. They're still technically short the stock through the OTM PUTs of Citadel's bags.
|
||||
|
||||
We see potential evidence of this swap because during the January runup, the number of PUT OI skyrocketed by roughly the amount of ITM CALLs that were traded. In an overconfidence play, Melvin most likely opened up these PUTs assuming retail would sell and that the price of $GME would decay to $0.50 by July 16th, giving them back their losses.
|
||||
|
||||
What is really interesting is that in 13F filings, despite there being roughly 1.3 million PUTs on March 31st, 2021, only 0.3 million were accounted for: [13F discrepancies from /u/broccaaa](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nev6po/all_new_13f_filings_data_visualised_for_all_major/?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share).
|
||||
|
||||
About 1 million PUTs are unreported.
|
||||
|
||||
Which then leads to the 13F of Melvin. Their 13F specifically states that they are redacting some information from the filing. They are probably hiding their PUT exposure. [Melvin's 13F is hiding PUTs from /u/AutoDrafter2020](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/ner3uc/melvin_capital_13f_filing_is_inaccurate_and_they/)
|
||||
|
||||
It's an assumption. But, when asking myself, "Where the hell are those PUTs?", "What is Melvin hiding?" and then thinking about the mechanics behind the swap of risk it makes sense to me that Melvin is holding a massive amount of these OTM PUTs.
|
||||
|
||||
Especially given Melvin's strange gains and losses over the past six months.
|
||||
|
||||
[![r/Superstonk - [Speculative] Piecing together the ITM CALLs and the OTM PUTs. Melvin was margin called on January 25th, so they swapped risk to Citadel. Melvin bought up those OTM PUTs from Citadel hoping to profit off of their original shorts, but the expirations of the OTM PUTs do nothing.](https://preview.redd.it/t3oytoo1hhd71.png?width=768&format=png&auto=webp&s=9f857d4e9a8bef2723885ee9785b79dd82c1077b)](https://preview.redd.it/t3oytoo1hhd71.png?width=768&format=png&auto=webp&s=9f857d4e9a8bef2723885ee9785b79dd82c1077b)
|
||||
|
||||
OTM PUTs Part 1. CALL and PUT OI chart per /u/broccaaa
|
||||
|
||||
For the month of February, Melvin posted gains of ~22%. And then, despite the market performing quite well since then, Melvin amazingly lost it all of those gains and is almost back to their original 53% losses.
|
||||
|
||||
Putting it all together, it makes sense as to how they'd be posting these weird ass gains and then losses.
|
||||
|
||||
1. Melvin locks in a loss of ~53% in January by closing out their positions and transferring the risk to Citadel the Market Maker.
|
||||
|
||||
2. Melvin buys up all of the OTM PUTs in an overconfidence play thinking retail will sell.
|
||||
|
||||
3. Melvin posts gains of 22% as their OTM PUTs slowly become in the money and $GME drops back to $40 in February.
|
||||
|
||||
4. Melvin's gains of 22% are wiped out as $GME has its rally back up and those PUTs expire worthless on March 19th, April 16th, and July 16th.
|
||||
|
||||
5. As all of the OTM PUTs expire worthless, Melvin goes back to their original losses of 53%. Remember - if they had not closed out their position and done the risk swap - they should be posting a much higher loss for $GME at $180 rather than a 53% loss when $GME was $96.73.
|
||||
|
||||
[![r/Superstonk - [Speculative] Piecing together the ITM CALLs and the OTM PUTs. Melvin was margin called on January 25th, so they swapped risk to Citadel. Melvin bought up those OTM PUTs from Citadel hoping to profit off of their original shorts, but the expirations of the OTM PUTs do nothing.](https://preview.redd.it/flktfg73hhd71.png?width=788&format=png&auto=webp&s=641e139fbb9d594e5b0d6abeb174e56889f59c27)](https://preview.redd.it/flktfg73hhd71.png?width=788&format=png&auto=webp&s=641e139fbb9d594e5b0d6abeb174e56889f59c27)
|
||||
|
||||
OTM PUTs Part 2
|
||||
|
||||
4\. Conclusion (In Bullet Form)
|
||||
|
||||
Again this is all speculative. But it would answer a loooot of questions. Please poke holes and discuss further:
|
||||
|
||||
- Melvin was probably margin called in January and required $2.75 billion to not be liquidated.
|
||||
|
||||
- Melvin was the most overextended out of Melvin, Point72, and Citadel the Hedgefund. Since Melvin was already getting margin called, they needed to swap the risk from Melvin because the retail buy pressure wasn't letting up.
|
||||
|
||||
- Point72 posted 15% losses in January, they more than likely hold a $GME short position and their margin call price is around $350, hence the price drops from $350 and shutdown of buys in January.
|
||||
|
||||
- Melvin was removed from the table and closed out of their short position by using ITM CALLs from Citadel. They had to do this method due to illiquidity in the market. This gets rid of the most overextended SHF but creates a new bag holder (Citadel MM).
|
||||
|
||||
- There was too much of a discrepancy in ITM CALL activity and the number of FTDs in January for it to be an FTD reset play. Absolutely no reason to perform those buy-writes if there weren't enough FTDs to justify it. There were about 110 million shares worth of deep ITM CALLs traded, and only 3 million FTDs. Rather, it must have been a risk swapping play.
|
||||
|
||||
- By covering, Melvin can now report a different short position per their balance sheet and the SI% drops from 226% to 30%.
|
||||
|
||||
- Since Citadel the market maker is bag holding, they can (presumably) can-kick the short position and keep it from appearing on SI%. As a Market Maker, they can borrow shares without first locating them for the sake of liquidity.
|
||||
|
||||
- Melvin ate the 53% ($12.5 billion loss) when swapping risk. By doing this, they aren't forced to cover and thus Point72 and Citadel are also saved from the ~$96.73 Melvin margin call price.
|
||||
|
||||
- Melvin was allowed to potentially profit off of their original short position by buying up OTM PUTs from Citadel which were fed by the short position that Citadel opened to satisfy the ITM CALLs.
|
||||
|
||||
- As $GME dropped back to $40, Melvin posted a gain of 22% in February because of the OTM PUTs becoming in the money.
|
||||
|
||||
- As these OTM PUTs expire, nothing happens beyond Melvin losing out on profits and Citadel continuing to hold the bag.
|
||||
|
||||
- Melvin doesn't need to open up more OTM PUTs if the MOASS is looking more and more likely of occurring. They've escaped with 53% losses, just let it go.
|
||||
|
||||
- If Melvin didn't close their shorts, they should have much more than 53% losses now that $GME is trading at $180+. If they did perform the swap of risk, then it explains why they gained 22% and are now back to about 53% losses despite $GME being double in price of when they closed out.
|
||||
|
||||
And to be clear:
|
||||
|
||||
This does not mean that there will be no squeeze. I am showing you that even if Melvin closed and ate the 53% loss, Citadel and Point72 are still short and Citadel is most likely holding the bag.
|
||||
|
||||
As long as short positions are opened, then they must be covered once the dominos start to fall.
|
@ -0,0 +1,44 @@
|
||||
One of the addresses associated with the GameStop NFT had a transaction today. Any wrinkle brains able to tell what it was used for?
|
||||
====================================================================================================================================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/clawesome](https://www.reddit.com/user/clawesome/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/ogjbcy/one_of_the_addresses_associated_with_the_gamestop/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
[etherscan.io/addres...](https://etherscan.io/address/0x10B16eEDe03cF73CbF44e4BFFFa3e6BFf36F1Fad)
|
||||
|
||||
[Question ❓](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22Question%20%E2%9D%93%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
## Relevant Comment/Answer by [u/nuclear-falcon](https://www.reddit.com/user/nuclear-falcon/)
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
**Official Gamestop NFT Contract "GME NFT":**
|
||||
|
||||
0x13374200c29C757FDCc72F15Da98fb94f286d71e
|
||||
|
||||
**Was created by "Creator":**
|
||||
|
||||
0x10b16eede03cf73cbf44e4bfffa3e6bff36f1fad
|
||||
|
||||
"Creator" is the account in question that OP linked.
|
||||
|
||||
*Creator is a contract itself!* If you go to the contract's [etherscan page](https://etherscan.io/address/0x10b16eede03cf73cbf44e4bfffa3e6bff36f1fad#readProxyContract) -> Contract -> "Read Contract as Proxy" you can get a little bit of information. The NAME field is "Gnosis Safe" which is a service in the form of a contract to force multiple people in a company to sign off on transactions before they happen, which is how you keep crypto at a company safe. [Here](https://help.gnosis-safe.io/en/articles/3876456-what-is-gnosis-safe) is a brief overview from their website.
|
||||
|
||||
If you go to the Creator address, you'll see a transaction from ~8 hours ago and then one that happened ~5 minutes ago (all from the time of writing). The "Events" tab on etherscan allows you to see which functions were executed.
|
||||
|
||||
Transaction from ~8 hours ago was to add "Add Owner" function execution. I think this means they added another person who can sign off on transactions.
|
||||
|
||||
Transaction from ~5 minutes ago executed 2 functions:
|
||||
|
||||
Remove Owner - to Remove a person/wallet from signing off on transactions
|
||||
|
||||
Add Owner - same as the one from ~8 hours ago that adds someone
|
||||
|
||||
**What I think this means:**
|
||||
|
||||
The NFTeam is adding new people who have rights to sign off on transactions with the official GameStop company crypto. This is a security measure that means no single person at the company can control/steal/send crypto to anyone else
|
@ -0,0 +1,59 @@
|
||||
An explanation of 'launchDate' 7/14 - NFT - EIP1559
|
||||
===================================================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/Hey_Madie](https://www.reddit.com/user/Hey_Madie/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/oh7ugx/an_explanation_of_launchdate_714_nft_eip1559/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
|
||||
[Education 👨🏫 | Data 🔢](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22Education%20%F0%9F%91%A8%E2%80%8D%F0%9F%8F%AB%20%7C%20Data%20%F0%9F%94%A2%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||
To define, the Gamestop NFT had a 'launchDate' field in the code that defined to 7/14/2021. This is/was referencing the now rescheduled Ehtereum network upgrades to EIP-1559. The update will now occur on 8/4/21 at block 12,965,000, between 13:00 UTC and 17:00 UTC.
|
||||
|
||||
For the record, they did not indicate or reference an actual release date for the NFT, but they did acknowledge that they want to get it right and they are not taking any shortcuts. So we hold-fast! It'll be worth it!
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/40ifzxp00aa71.png?width=591&format=png&auto=webp&s=1c07ad34c18c394d28e317761151bf682b65eb88)
|
||||
|
||||
Ethereum is set to go through a lot of changes in the future, first with the London hardfork introducing EIP-1559.
|
||||
|
||||
EIP-1559 is an Ethereum Improvement Proposal that, along with four other EIPs, will signal the start of Ethereum's 'Triple Halvening' event.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/jf99luysp9a71.png?width=598&format=png&auto=webp&s=edb0d225f8ed1869dcaa101bd99ef4353db668ab)
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/naajapyaw9a71.png?width=680&format=png&auto=webp&s=4aa295886b39a13d02b967b6011d79b4d3fb4a7e)
|
||||
|
||||
This 'tip' is then given to the Ethereum miner, while the base fee is burned, removing it from circulation. In explaining the reason for this burn, [EIP's authors said](https://eips.ethereum.org/EIPS/eip-1559):
|
||||
|
||||
> This ensures that only ETH can ever be used to pay for transactions on Ethereum, cementing the economic value of ETH within the Ethereum platform and reducing risks associated with miner extractable value (MEV). Additionally, this burn counterbalances Ethereum inflation while still giving the block reward and priority fee to miners. Finally, ensuring the miner of a block does not receive the base fee is important because it removes miner incentive to manipulate the fee in order to extract more fees from users.
|
||||
|
||||
What Will EIP-1559 Do For Ethereum Miners?
|
||||
|
||||
A collection of Ethereum miners and mining pools have voiced their opposition to EIP-1559. This has been collated in the [#STOPEIP1559 petition](https://stopeip1559.org/), led by Flexpool.
|
||||
|
||||
Explaining their opposition, the petition states: "[Burning transaction fees] dramatically reduces miners' earnings, people who invested their savings into supporting the Ethereum network."
|
||||
|
||||
Advertisement
|
||||
|
||||
Given EIP-1559 is yet to launch onto the mainnet, the reward changes for miners are currently only predictions, with the full impact unknown.
|
||||
|
||||
Of course, no matter the miners animosity to EIP-1559, this is a smaller change in comparison to the impact Ethereum 2.0 will have. The Eth2 upgrade,[ slated for release in 2022](https://www.gfinityesports.com/cryptocurrency/ethereum-2-release-date-eth2-roadmap-phases-is-ethereum-2-new-coin-serenity/), will see a full shift to [Ethereum staking](https://www.gfinityesports.com/cryptocurrency/ethereum-staking-what-is-it-how-to-stake-Eth2-ethereum-2-staking-rewards/) via a Proof-of-Stake algorithm.
|
||||
|
||||
Sources:
|
||||
|
||||
[Ethereum EIP-1559: Release Date, Meaning, And What EIP-1559 Will Do For Mining ETH](https://www.gfinityesports.com/cryptocurrency/ethereum-eip-1559-release-date-meaning-fees-london-hardfork-effect-on-mining-eth/)
|
||||
|
||||
[Ethereum price gears up for its upcoming 'Triple Halving'](https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/ethereum-price-gears-up-for-its-upcoming-triple-halving-202107071339)
|
||||
|
||||
[4 Common Misperceptions About Ethereum's EIP 1559 Upgrade](https://www.coindesk.com/4-myths-about-ethereum-eip-1559)
|
||||
|
||||
🦍Other community posts pertaining to this subject. 🧠 Together We Are Stronger! 🚀
|
||||
|
||||
Post about 1st tweet: <https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/oh5jjc/gamestop_nft_launch_date/>
|
||||
|
||||
Post about 2nd clarifying tweet: <https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/oh60ea/gme_nft_developler_clarifies_that_there_is_no_set/>
|
||||
|
||||
Post with both tweets and more discussion: <https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/oh613h/finestonematt_on_twitter_about_the_supposed/>
|
||||
|
||||
TL;DR: Gamestop Engineers verify that the launch date was referencing the now rescheduled upgrade to the Ethereum network to EIP1559.
|
130
DD/2021-01-30-GME-Thread-Brokers-that-Halted-Trading.md
Normal file
130
DD/2021-01-30-GME-Thread-Brokers-that-Halted-Trading.md
Normal file
@ -0,0 +1,130 @@
|
||||
Weekend GME Thread + Homework for all: Let's stop using brokerages that halted trading
|
||||
======================================================================================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/CriticDanger](https://www.reddit.com/user/CriticDanger/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/l8rhr3/weekend_gme_thread_homework_for_all_lets_stop/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
[Discussion](https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/search?q=flair_name%3A%22Discussion%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||
Hello all,
|
||||
|
||||
Let's use this thread to discuss the GameStop situation this weekend, please don't open new threads about it unless it is a unique perspective or brings very valuable information.
|
||||
|
||||
Do note, posts and comments are still restricted to users with a higher Karma and account age.
|
||||
|
||||
Important information
|
||||
|
||||
First, let's get some things out of the way:
|
||||
|
||||
- The short squeeze has not squoze yet, short interest estimates are still extremely high, I won't post the sources and encourage you to search for it yourself.
|
||||
|
||||
- The gamma squeeze has not happened, it may happen Monday, it may happen gradually, it may not happen (if their positions have already been covered), it isn't necessary for anything to happen, however.
|
||||
|
||||
- The establishment is still lying about many things for the purpose of market manipulation (Jim Cramer, CNBC, etc.). These people are SOLD. Read Canadian news channels regarding the situation, they are much less biased!
|
||||
|
||||
- Google and Apple and removing negative reviews from bad brokers from their app stores, put a calendar reminder in 2-6 weeks to add your review at that time, instead of now.
|
||||
|
||||
* * * * *
|
||||
|
||||
Let's make a list of the Brokers that restricted the purchasing of specific tickers
|
||||
|
||||
The worst thing that happened this week were the restrictions that our brokers put on buying specific tickers. This, obviously, affected the stock market, tanked those tickers, and significantly reduced our trust in the institutions at hand.
|
||||
|
||||
Now, I'm aware the reasons for this are complicated, we know that for many of them, they were forced to restrict these tickers by their Clearing Houses (Apex being the main one), we don't exactly know why, or whether that is legal or not, however.
|
||||
|
||||
One thing for certain, the communication by the brokers and clearing houses was very, very, very bad. This, in turns, significantly harmed the public's trust in them, as well as the institutions in charge of regulating this.
|
||||
|
||||
Here is my list, please comment below and let me know which ones I've missed:
|
||||
|
||||
Horrible Brokers - Restricted purchasing of certain tickets and lied/gloated about it
|
||||
|
||||
- Robinhood - [Now Blocking 50 Equities](https://seekingalpha.com/news/3656437-robinhoods-50-stock-limit-list?mail_subject=bb-ino-robinhood-s-50-stock-limit-list-with-spacs-makes-mass-exodus-likelier-alpha-tactics&utm_campaign=rta-stock-news&utm_content=link-73&utm_medium=email&utm_source=seeking_alpha) - [CEO lying saying they have no liquidity issues, 1 day before getting a 1 billion bailout](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6fs_lyGn4YA) - [Join the lawsuit against them if you were affected](https://robinhoodgamestopclassaction.com/)
|
||||
|
||||
- Interactive Brokers (US/CAN) - [Display visible contempt for Retail traders, wants GME to go to 17 before re-enabling trading](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7RH4XKP55fM) - [Blocked Trading212, as their acting intermediary](https://www.financemagnates.com/forex/brokers/trading-212-blames-interactive-brokers-for-trade-execution-delay/)
|
||||
|
||||
- E-Toro - [Proof](https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/robinhood-webull-m1-reopen-gamestop-stock-trading-2021-1-1030019926) - [Forced stop-losses](https://www.etoro.com/posts/0__entry__df95e7f0-1772-4ec7-a271-69b13ca229dd?utm_medium=Direct&utm_source=55714&utm_content=0&utm_serial=SocialSharePostcopyLink_918269&utm_campaign=SocialSharePostcopyLink_918269&utm_term)
|
||||
|
||||
Bad Brokers - Restricted purchasing of certain tickers
|
||||
|
||||
- E-Trade - [Proof](https://www.theverge.com/2021/1/28/22254863/etrade-gamestop-amc-stock-reddit-wallstreetbets-robinhood)
|
||||
|
||||
- Ally - [Proof](https://www.wsj.com/articles/online-brokerages-restrict-trading-on-gamestop-amc-amid-frenetic-trading-11611849934)
|
||||
|
||||
- Public.com - [Proof](https://techcrunch.com/2021/01/28/webull-and-public-remove-restrictions-on-memestocks-after-citing-trade-settlement-firm-as-the-cause/)
|
||||
|
||||
- Merrill Edge - [Proof](https://www.streetinsider.com/Momentum+Movers/Merrill+Edge+said+to+have+put+restrictions+on+trading+in+AMC+Entertainment+%28AMC%29%2C+GameStop+%28GME%29/17879212.html)
|
||||
|
||||
- IG Broker - [Proof](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/gamestop-amc-uk-trading-platform-163546937.html)
|
||||
|
||||
- Trade Republic - [Proof](https://www.tellerreport.com/business/2021-01-29-%0A---trade-republic-and-gamestop--patronizing-investors-%0A--.BJNYXthWl_.html)
|
||||
|
||||
- Webull - [Admitted they were forced to by clearing firm](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/we-bull-ceo-explains-why-trading-was-restricted-amid-the-game-stop-market-mania-172539318.html) - [Clearing firm is Apex](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4RS4JIEVyXM&feature=youtu.be) - They'll be moved to neutral once they publicly confirm Apex was sole reason the trades were restricted.
|
||||
|
||||
- Stake - [Proof](https://hellostake.com/au/stake-updates/understanding-trading-suspensions/)
|
||||
|
||||
- Trading212 - [Proof](https://inews.co.uk/news/business/gamestop-uk-trading-robinhood-trading-212-gme-stock-restricted-legal-action-850465) - [re-enabled, caused by intermediary](https://twitter.com/Trading212/status/1355074914202628098) - [Intermediary is IB](https://www.financemagnates.com/forex/brokers/trading-212-blames-interactive-brokers-for-trade-execution-delay/) - [Restricted purchasing of other securities previous](https://community.trading212.com/t/gold-buying-restricted-in-larger-quantities/27987) - Based on them restricting securities before this, and countless complaints regarding other restrictions, I've put them back in the bad list.
|
||||
|
||||
Neutral Brokers - Restricted trading, publicly naming their intermediary
|
||||
|
||||
- Freetrade - [Proof, blames Barclays](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/29/gamestop-saga-uk-trading-app-freetrade-halts-purchases-of-us-stocks.html) - [CMO Interview](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V76UGdYAdcI&feature=youtu.be) - [CMO Tweets](https://twitter.com/v18n/status/1355258696885030915?s=19)
|
||||
|
||||
- M1 Finance - [Proof](https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/robinhood-webull-m1-reopen-gamestop-stock-trading-2021-1-1030019926) - [Blames Apex Clearing](https://twitter.com/m1_finance/status/1354837064072753152)
|
||||
|
||||
- Tastyworks - [Proof, blame Apex Clearing](https://twitter.com/thetastyworks/status/1354879706991128578)
|
||||
|
||||
- Stash - [Proof, blamex Apex Clearing](https://twitter.com/Stash/status/1354839916761518083?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1354839916761518083%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.newsweek.com%2Fwebull-blocks-gamestop-amc-transactions-stock-market-robinhood-1565172)
|
||||
|
||||
- TD Ameritrade/Canada - [Proof](https://www.cnet.com/news/reddits-amc-and-gamestop-stocks-swing-wildly-after-robinhood-td-ameritrade-restrict-trades/) - [Proof2](https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/robinhood-gamestop-1.5891363) - (Margin requirements increased, Covered call and short put orders may only be placed with a broker and support times are > 2h, other trades restricted) - Neutral because they didn't restrict the purchase of stocks with cash.
|
||||
|
||||
- Revolut - [Proof](https://www.financemagnates.com/forex/brokers/gamestop-buyers-suffer-another-setback-as-revolut-bans-trading/) - Blames DriveWealth LCC
|
||||
|
||||
Good Brokers - Did not restrict trading
|
||||
|
||||
- Most Canadian Brokers (Questrade, Qtrade, Disnat, BMO, HSBC, RBC, TD, etc.)
|
||||
|
||||
- Most European Brokers (Swissquote, TradeStation, Degiro)
|
||||
|
||||
- Fidelity
|
||||
|
||||
- Vanguard
|
||||
|
||||
- WealthSimple (CAN, US)
|
||||
|
||||
- Schwab (Margin requirements increased)
|
||||
|
||||
- You Invest (JP Morgan/Chase)
|
||||
|
||||
- Capital.com
|
||||
|
||||
- Wells Fargo - [allowed trades but banned its advisors from talking about GameStop](https://www.barrons.com/articles/wells-fargo-blocks-advisors-from-recommending-gamestop-amc-51611870929)
|
||||
|
||||
- Nordnet
|
||||
|
||||
- Citibank
|
||||
|
||||
* * * * *
|
||||
|
||||
Note regarding the clearing houses
|
||||
|
||||
The first step is to know why brokers restricted the trading. The second step is to investigate what happened with the clearing houses. Currently, the following clearing houses seem to have had the most issues:
|
||||
|
||||
- Apex Clearing
|
||||
|
||||
- Barclays
|
||||
|
||||
- IKBR
|
||||
|
||||
We don't know if these firms acted maliciously (protecting themselves before protecting the free market), or because they literally had no choice. If the former, they need to be punished. If the later, then laws need to change. EITHER WAY, something needs to change, this post is merely here to put attention on the problem, I don't claim to have the solution.
|
||||
|
||||
Additionally, there needs to be open communication about this issue, currently, they are not saying anything on social media regarding this. Once they do, I'll update this post with it.
|
||||
|
||||
Note: /r/ THICC_DICC_PRICC tried to explain this in some detail [here](https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/l90an8/an_explanation_of_what_caused_the_trading_halt/). I cannot attest to the accuracy/validity of his explanation, feel free to discuss that on his post.
|
||||
|
||||
* * * * *
|
||||
|
||||
We might keep this information on the sidebar...forever. Please help me build this list to completion. If you are using a broker in the bad list, even if you are not invested in the tickers that have been restricted, please consider moving to a better broker.
|
||||
|
||||
Thank you all for your patience, we are sorry new members are not able to comment yet, we promise you will be allowed to once this is over!
|
622
DD/2021-06-10-GME-MOASS-Thesis-Summary-v2.md
Normal file
622
DD/2021-06-10-GME-MOASS-Thesis-Summary-v2.md
Normal file
@ -0,0 +1,622 @@
|
||||
GME MOASS THESIS SUMMARY - 2.0 | Summarization of the Mother of All Short Squeezes Thesis and the Market Concepts/Mechanics behind it. Buckle Up 🚀💎🙌
|
||||
=======================================================================================================================================================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/HCMF_MaceFace](https://www.reddit.com/user/HCMF_MaceFace/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nwqaj0/gme_moass_thesis_summary_20_summarization_of_the/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
[DD 👨🔬](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22DD%20%F0%9F%91%A8%E2%80%8D%F0%9F%94%AC%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||
> This is refined and reformatted version of my previous [MOASS Thesis Summary](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nletnn/gme_the_mother_of_all_short_squeezes_moass_thesis/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3) that can be found in the [DD Beginners Guide Page](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/njwv6n/the_gme_masters_guide_a_dd_campaign_for_apes/?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share), and includes some new formatting and concepts. This one will replace it if it is well-received (either the post of the contents, either way, the link will take you to the right info).
|
||||
>
|
||||
> This content is still a slight work in progress and is not perfect (working to expand a couple newer sections), so feel free to offer suggestions.
|
||||
|
||||
I. IMPORTANT LINKS FOR NEW MEMBERS TO [r/superstonk](https://www.reddit.com/r/superstonk/)
|
||||
|
||||
- [APE Security Protocol (how to secure and protect yourself online)](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nsgv3d/ape_security_protocols/)
|
||||
|
||||
- [DD Beginners Guide Page](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/njwv6n/the_gme_masters_guide_a_dd_campaign_for_apes/?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share)
|
||||
|
||||
- [Wiki](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/wiki/index)
|
||||
|
||||
II. INTRO / INTENTION OF POST
|
||||
|
||||
The core intention of this post was to frame the MOASS Thesis in a way that was understandable to individuals inside and outside of the community (especially those who are relatively new to the market). It also is intended to serve as a reference to leverage if you are ever trying to explain to someone why you think it is a good investment option.
|
||||
|
||||
This post will give a *relatively* simplistic breakdown of the current situation and landscape of GameStop Stock (GME). It will summarize the theory that GME's price will soon reach astronomical levels during a massive short squeeze, AKA "The Mother of all Short Squeezes (MOASS) Thesis". The bulk of this post is a breakdown of the market terms and concepts that will need to be understood in order to fully comprehend the who-what-when-where-why-how.
|
||||
|
||||
III. Personal note
|
||||
|
||||
Feel free to use the contents of this post however you want. Don't worry about asking for permission to copy it, cross-post it, translate it, refine and use it in your own posts, etc.
|
||||
|
||||
Leave a comment if you have any questions. If you prefer Chat or do not meet karma requirements, you can hit me up on chat as well
|
||||
|
||||
> Note that, while I may have a good grasp on the concepts broken down in this post, my background is not in finance, investing, or trading, so there may be some questions I do not have the answer do (especially if they are not called out in this post)
|
||||
|
||||
I have found myself more active on [Twitter](https://twitter.com/intent/user?screen_name=HCMF_MaceFace) than I ever really expected to be, so feel free to [follow me](https://twitter.com/intent/user?screen_name=HCMF_MaceFace) if you want things like the below:
|
||||
|
||||
- Antagonizing Market Adversaries, MSM Shills, etc.
|
||||
|
||||
- Meme-ing with SuperStonk and the other Apes in the community
|
||||
|
||||
- Getting Notifications for Future DD I post
|
||||
|
||||
Disclaimer
|
||||
|
||||
> This writeup is NOT intended to serve as a source of proof/evidence behind this theory, and it operates under the assumption that the theory is valid and that the conditions it is built on are valid. Credit for the DD this Thesis is based on belongs to the broader retail community inside and outside of [r/superstonk](https://www.reddit.com/r/superstonk/). I personally contributed very little beyond synthesizing and summarizing the thesis and mechanics in a digestible way to help enable others to get the word out, and I am not an expert on really any of these topics despite having some knowledge in them.
|
||||
|
||||
IV. TL;DR (Also at Bottom)
|
||||
|
||||
1. Toxic Market Participants have built up massive [short positions](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/short.asp) made through [Naked Shorting](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/n/nakedshorting.asp)
|
||||
|
||||
2. Retail caught on to this strategy and discovered it can backfire if the company being shorted does not go bankrupt, especially if shares are bought and held indefinitely
|
||||
|
||||
3. Rules and regulations have implemented by the DTCC and its subsidiaries have been geared towards preventing market collapse, as well as to minimize the ability to perform illegal trades (naked shorting)
|
||||
|
||||
4. The SEC is also doing more to enforce compliance with the "rules"
|
||||
|
||||
5. The manipulators are at the mercy of a vicious trade cycle (t+21 FTD Cycle) that is forcing those with naked short positions to perform actions to [cover](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/shortcovering.asp) (buy back shares that are short), or risk regulatory consequences
|
||||
|
||||
6. This act of rapid covering drives up the price, making it more expensive to cover during the next cycle if the share price continues to increase week over week
|
||||
|
||||
7. Eventually, the prices of GME will get so high that prime brokers/clearing houses will have no choice but to [Margin Call](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/m/margincall.asp) these participants which most likely will not be affordable due to the nature of [Short Squeezes](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/shortsqueeze.asp), causing them to default
|
||||
|
||||
8. The [Prime-Brokers](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/p/primebrokerage.asp) will then take on the position, and if the Prime Brokers cannot cover them and also defaults, the NSCC will be next to attempt to settle all positions left over based on their [Recovery and Wind-down Plan (p42)](https://www.dtcc.com/~/media/Files/Downloads/legal/policy-and-compliance/NSCC_Disclosure_Framework.pdf)
|
||||
|
||||
9. If NSCC cannot afford to close everything with the money reserved for this type of situation, they the Fed must navigate the remaining positions (potentially via printing money/bailout)
|
||||
|
||||
V. KEY CONCEPTS
|
||||
|
||||
These terms are key to understanding the theory and speculated value of a GME investment. Hyperlinks to [Investopedia](https://www.investopedia.com/), "the world's leading source of financial content on the web", have been included for most market terms and concepts and it is recommended to check them out if they are not clear. We will be breaking down some of the more complex terms and concepts within the post and framing them within the context of GME.
|
||||
|
||||
Table of Contents for Key Concepts
|
||||
|
||||
1. Stocks Concepts
|
||||
|
||||
1. Share/Stock
|
||||
|
||||
2. Synthetic Shares
|
||||
|
||||
3. Outstanding Shares
|
||||
|
||||
4. Restricted Shares
|
||||
|
||||
5. The Float
|
||||
|
||||
6. Annual General Meeting
|
||||
|
||||
7. Shareholder Votes
|
||||
|
||||
2. Trade Positions
|
||||
|
||||
1. Long Position - Buying/Selling Stock
|
||||
|
||||
2. Short Position - Shorting/Covering Stock
|
||||
|
||||
3. Naked Short Position - Naked Shorting/Covering Stock
|
||||
|
||||
3. Market Participants
|
||||
|
||||
1. Retail Investors
|
||||
|
||||
2. Institutional Investors
|
||||
|
||||
3. Market Makers
|
||||
|
||||
4. Prime Brokers
|
||||
|
||||
5. Clearinghouses
|
||||
|
||||
6. MSM
|
||||
|
||||
4. IMPORTANT MARKET/TRADE MECHANICS (MOASS)
|
||||
|
||||
1. Fails to Deliver (FTD)
|
||||
|
||||
2. Margin
|
||||
|
||||
3. Margin Calls
|
||||
|
||||
4. Margin Calls Who Calls Who
|
||||
|
||||
5. Short Squeeze
|
||||
|
||||
1 - STOCKS CONCEPTS
|
||||
|
||||
1.1 - Shares/Stock
|
||||
|
||||
[Shares](https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/difference-between-shares-and-stocks/#shares) are the smallest unit of a Companies [Stock](https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/difference-between-shares-and-stocks/#stocks)
|
||||
|
||||
- Stocks and Shares are often used interchangeably
|
||||
|
||||
- Technically "shares" would represent how many of a specific company's stock, where buying multiple "stocks" would main that shares of multiple company's were bought
|
||||
|
||||
- ex. I bought 2 stocks; 10 shares of GME, and 60 shares of AMC
|
||||
|
||||
- There are different [classes of shares](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/class.asp) that are distinguished on their voting rights, sales charges, and other factors
|
||||
|
||||
- Classes of shares have relatively complex dynamics, but I will not go further into them here, as it is not as relevant to GME/AMC
|
||||
|
||||
1\. 2 - Synthetic Shares
|
||||
|
||||
[Synthetic Shares](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/synthetic.asp) are the financial instruments that get produced through [Naked Shorting](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/n/nakedshorting.asp)
|
||||
|
||||
- Not to be confused with [synthetic options](https://www.investopedia.com/articles/optioninvestor/08/synthetic-options.asp) positions, which are legal/legitimate trade strategies that "simulate" the profits/losses as if the trader actually held those shares
|
||||
|
||||
- Synthetic shares entitle the owner to all of the same rights as an investor owning a non-synthetic share
|
||||
|
||||
- Cases where there is an excessive amount of synthetic shares point to the possibility that a stock is being abused or manipulated
|
||||
|
||||
- Cannot be easily measured due to limited public transparency at the Market Maker and Prime Broker level
|
||||
|
||||
1.3 - Outstanding Shares
|
||||
|
||||
The number of [Outstanding shares](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/o/outstandingshares.asp) encompasses the amount of issued shares held by all shareholders (both private and public)
|
||||
|
||||
- It is possible for there to be more shares outstanding through Naked shorting, which produces Synthetic shares
|
||||
|
||||
- The number of issued AND synthetic shares outstanding is very difficult to measure, as they are only recorded on the books of the market makers generating synthetic shares and the prime-brokers they trade through
|
||||
|
||||
- These parties are not incentivized to be transparent and actively obscure these numbers, as the practice of naked shorting excessively is fraudulent and illegal
|
||||
|
||||
1.4 - Restricted Shares
|
||||
|
||||
[Restricted shares](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/r/restrictedstock.asp) include the number of issued shares held by insiders of the company
|
||||
|
||||
- These shares are not publicly traded on the stock market
|
||||
|
||||
1.5 - The Float
|
||||
|
||||
[The Float](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/f/floating-stock.asp), or Floating Stock is the number of shares of stock that are available to be publicly traded (the number of [Outstanding shares](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/o/outstandingshares.asp) minus the amount of [Restricted shares](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/r/restrictedstock.asp) that are owned by insiders).
|
||||
|
||||
- In theory, the number of shares owned by [retail investors](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/r/retailinvestor.asp) and [institutional investors](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/i/institutionalinvestor.asp) should not exceed the float
|
||||
|
||||
- GME's float total is currently ~[56.89 Million](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/GME/key-statistics/) shares (as of 6/10/21)
|
||||
|
||||
1.6 - Shareholder Votes
|
||||
|
||||
[Annual General Meetings](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/a/agm.asp) basically is an annual meeting that allows shareholders to vote
|
||||
|
||||
- Votes are cast for things like
|
||||
|
||||
- Appointment of directors
|
||||
|
||||
- Executive compensation
|
||||
|
||||
- Dividend adjustments
|
||||
|
||||
1.7 - Shareholder Votes
|
||||
|
||||
[Shareholder Voting](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/v/votingright.asp) is a right extended to shareholders holding shares in the stock that entitle the owner to vote on cooperate policies
|
||||
|
||||
- Examples of what votes are cast for
|
||||
|
||||
- Appointment of directors
|
||||
|
||||
- Executive compensation
|
||||
|
||||
- Dividend adjustments
|
||||
|
||||
- [Overvoting (info in the middle of this page)](https://www.sec.gov/spotlight/proxyprocess/proxyvotingbrief.htm)
|
||||
|
||||
- When there is an overvote (like GME on 6/9), the votes will be normalized to a number based on the amount of shares that are held by DTC
|
||||
|
||||
- The official 8K form cannot be officially submitted with an overvote
|
||||
|
||||
- When this happens, the SEC and Company are notified
|
||||
|
||||
2 - TRADE POSITIONS
|
||||
|
||||
2.1 - Long Position - Buying/Selling Stock
|
||||
|
||||
When an investor buys a stock they are considered [long](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/l/long.asp) on it (this is the type of position most people associate with trading stocks)
|
||||
|
||||
- Not to be confused with a [long-term](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/l/longterminvestments.asp) investment
|
||||
|
||||
- In other words, holders of long positions have a positive number of shares
|
||||
|
||||
- To [close](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/closeposition.asp) a long position the owner would sell their shares on the stock market
|
||||
|
||||
Basic flow of obtaining/closing a long position is:
|
||||
|
||||
1. Buy the stock
|
||||
|
||||
2. Hold it until the price of it increases to a desired amount
|
||||
|
||||
3. Sell it for a profit
|
||||
|
||||
2.2 - Short Position - Shorting/Covering Stock
|
||||
|
||||
When a short seller shorts a stock they hold a [short position](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/short.asp) on the stock, or owe the party they borrowed from however many shares they shorted
|
||||
|
||||
- Not to be confused with a [short-term](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/shorterminvestments.asp) investment
|
||||
|
||||
- Investors with short positions effectively are *in debt* or *owe* the number of shares that they have shorted and can be considered *negative* on the stock
|
||||
|
||||
- To close that position, short-sellers must buy a number of shares equal to the size of their short position (buying to close a short position is known as [covering](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/shortcovering.asp))
|
||||
|
||||
- Short positions must be reported to regulators (unlike naked short sales)
|
||||
|
||||
Basic flow of obtaining/closing a short position:
|
||||
|
||||
1. Borrow a share owned by a lender
|
||||
|
||||
2. Sell the stock that was borrowed
|
||||
|
||||
3. Gaining the cash based on the price it was at the time it was "shorted"
|
||||
|
||||
4. Pay interest as a percentage of the stock's value
|
||||
|
||||
5. Since this is a percentage the cost of interest increases if the stock's value increases
|
||||
|
||||
6. Hold the position until the price has dropped to a desired price
|
||||
|
||||
7. Buy the stock on the open market
|
||||
|
||||
8. Ideally the stock is bought back at a lower price than originally borrowed for so the investor can pocket the difference
|
||||
|
||||
9. Return the share back to the lender
|
||||
|
||||
2.3 - Naked Short Position - Naked Shorting/Covering Stock
|
||||
|
||||
[Naked Shorting](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/n/nakedshorting.asp) effectively allows a Short Seller, working with a market maker, to short a stock using a without having a borrowed share like normal short selling
|
||||
|
||||
- Naked short sales do NOT have to be reported the same way as normal "Short Sales" and can be "hidden"
|
||||
|
||||
- Failures to Deliver the shares that were "fake-borrowed" to the buyer are on of the main ways to find evidence of naked shorting
|
||||
|
||||
- Due to a loophole and lack of oversight by regulation, Naked short selling can be used to manipulate the price of certain stocks
|
||||
|
||||
- This type of trade illegal outside of specific situations involving Market Makers
|
||||
|
||||
- Naked shorting was targeted for tighter regulation during the financial crisis of 2008 but enforcement has unfortunately not been effective in preventing it from manipulating the market
|
||||
|
||||
Basic flow of obtaining/closing a naked short position (kind of complex and involves two specific parties for 2 initial trades called a married put)
|
||||
|
||||
1. A Short Seller "A" buys 100 shares from a Market Maker "Z" who can technically sell them without locating them
|
||||
|
||||
1. Market Maker is Naked Shorting the stock, and the Short Seller is receiving 100 synthetic shares
|
||||
|
||||
2. Short Seller "A" now buys a [Put Option](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/p/putoption.asp) (1 options contract is worth 100 shares) from Market Maker "Z" who is the [writer](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/w/writing-an-option.asp) of the put
|
||||
|
||||
1. Writing/selling a put nets +100 shares to the Market Maker, which results in the -100 shares that were naked shorted to be neutralized, so the Market Maker no is at a neutral position (Market Makers generally try to remain net 0 on trades
|
||||
|
||||
2. Short Seller "A" now has 100 shares that can be short sold (they "borrowing" the synthetic shares the Market Maker effectively printed out of thin air), and one put contract that they can make money on as long as the price goes down
|
||||
|
||||
3. The steps or the short seller are basically the same as a normal short sale now (2.2 steps 2-8), however, interest from the Short seller does not need to be paid to a lender (no one is formally lending it)
|
||||
|
||||
1. The premium from the put being purchased from the Market Maker is how they benefit
|
||||
|
||||
2. Short Seller "A" now has a short position that they can cover simply by buying 100 shares, which would cancel out the synthetic short position
|
||||
|
||||
3 - MARKET PARTICIPANTS
|
||||
|
||||
3.1 - Retail Investors
|
||||
|
||||
- Retail Investors, also known as individual investors, are your average investors (not a company or organization)
|
||||
|
||||
- Referred to as the "Dumb Money" by Wall Street and the "professional" financial community
|
||||
|
||||
- Reddit communities
|
||||
|
||||
- Notable subreddits
|
||||
|
||||
- [r/Superstonk](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/)
|
||||
|
||||
- [r/gme](https://www.reddit.com/r/gme/)
|
||||
|
||||
- [r/amcstock](https://www.reddit.com/r/amcstock/)
|
||||
|
||||
- [r/wallstreetbets](https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/)
|
||||
|
||||
3.2 - Institutional Investors
|
||||
|
||||
[Institutional Investors](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/i/institutionalinvestor.asp) are organizations that invest on individuals' behalf
|
||||
|
||||
- Examples of Institutional Investors
|
||||
|
||||
- Endowment Funds
|
||||
|
||||
- Commercial Banks
|
||||
|
||||
- Mutual Funds
|
||||
|
||||
- Hedge funds
|
||||
|
||||
- Pension funds
|
||||
|
||||
- Insurance companies
|
||||
|
||||
3.3 - Market Makers
|
||||
|
||||
- [Market Makers](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/m/marketmaker.asp) are very different from "Investors" and are a bit harder to explain but basically are there to increase [liquidity](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/l/liquidity.asp) in the market
|
||||
|
||||
- When you buy and sell stock those trades are often going between you and a market maker
|
||||
|
||||
- Market makers get "special rules" that enable them to keep liquidity in the market when there is low liquidity
|
||||
|
||||
- Naked shorting is one of the options Market Makers have when navigating a trade that other investors do not have
|
||||
|
||||
3.4 - Prime Brokers
|
||||
|
||||
- A [Prime-Broker](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/p/primebrokerage.asp) is a bundled group of services that investment banks and other financial institutions offer to hedge funds and other large investment clients that need to be able to borrow securities or cash in order to engage in [netting](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/n/netting.asp) to achieve [absolute returns](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/a/absolutereturn.asp)
|
||||
|
||||
- [Broker](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/b/broker.asp) vs [Prime-Broker](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/p/primebrokerage.asp)
|
||||
|
||||
- A broker is an individual or entity that facilitates the purchase or sale of securities, such as the buying or selling of stocks and bonds for an investment account. A prime broker is a large institution that provides a multitude of services, from cash management to securities lending to risk management for other large institutions.
|
||||
|
||||
- [Market Makers](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/m/marketmaker.asp) like go through Prime Brokers
|
||||
|
||||
- The Prime Broker is who would Margin Call Shitadel if their short position gets too large or they bleed too much capital
|
||||
|
||||
3.5 - Clearinghouses
|
||||
|
||||
[Clearinghouses](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/clearinghouse.asp) are intermediaries between buyers and sellers
|
||||
|
||||
- Finalize transactions
|
||||
|
||||
- Regulates delivery of assets
|
||||
|
||||
- Reports on trading data
|
||||
|
||||
3.6* - MSM (Mainstream Media)
|
||||
|
||||
Though not a traditional market participant (as in they are not trade/financial entities) the [MSM](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/m/media_effect.asp) is worth noting due to its role in influencing the financial atmosphere and landscape
|
||||
|
||||
4 - IMPORTANT MARKET/TRADE MECHANICS (MOASS)
|
||||
|
||||
4.1 - Failures to Deliver (FTD)
|
||||
|
||||
- [FTDs](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/f/failuretodeliver.asp) occur when a buyer of a stock ends up not having the money to purchase the stock that they traded for OR, when a short seller does not own the stock at the time of settlement
|
||||
|
||||
- FTDs are one of the main check-balances to naked shorting, so very high amounts of Failures to Deliver are indicative of this
|
||||
|
||||
- Spoiler: GME and AMC have tons of FTDs reported
|
||||
|
||||
4.2 - Margin
|
||||
|
||||
- [Margin](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/m/margin.asp) is basically credit that that an investor can use to buy more stock
|
||||
|
||||
- When you buy on margin you must stake the assets you have already purchased with your own cash as collateral
|
||||
|
||||
- The amount of Margin you can have depends on the value of your collateral
|
||||
|
||||
- The value of your collateral and cash but meet the margin requirements in order to continue to buy on margin
|
||||
|
||||
- Keep in mind the value of your collateral can change if the price goes up or down and if the value of your collateral/cash drops below the margin requirement you will received a [Margin Call](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/m/margincall.asp) Another way to think about it:
|
||||
|
||||
1. Imagine I have $1,000 in stock
|
||||
|
||||
2. You obtain a personal loan for another $1000
|
||||
|
||||
3. To get the credit you stake your $1000 in stock (if you default it goes to the lender to cover your debt)
|
||||
|
||||
4. You buy $1000 more stock with that loan (you now own $2000 in stocks, half in cash half on margin)
|
||||
|
||||
5. You will pay interest on the $1000 on margin but if your investment makes more money than the interest then you are still profiting
|
||||
|
||||
6. If your investment turns bad (lets say the price of your stock falls 50% and you are left with $1000) your lender can forcibly close out your positions (everything you bought in cash and staked as collateral along with what you bought on margin so that they can get the $1000 they loaned you back)
|
||||
|
||||
4.3 - Margin Call
|
||||
|
||||
- A Margin Call is a notice indicating you have a specific amount of time to deposit enough of your own funds to meet your margin requirement (if you cannot meet the requirement the lender is entitled to sell all of your holdings to recover what you borrowed
|
||||
|
||||
Margin Examples:
|
||||
|
||||
> This is a slightly complicated scenario that can be a little hard to follow. Give it a few reads if it doesn't make sense the first time, but basically, Margin is a credit line that you can use to buy more assets (effectively a loan backed by collateral and cash in your own account). If you buy assets with it, you have to pay back what you borrowed, whether the value of your investment goes up or down (if the investment goes up in value, you make more than you normally would, but if the investment goes down in value, you lose more than you otherwise would have without margin).
|
||||
>
|
||||
> This gets even more (or less maybe) complicated when you have short positions AND long positions, like most institutional investors. To have short positions, I still need to have margin, but I do not need to use it to buy stocks, It can act as a buffer if I have a short position on a stock that is increasing in value (with a short position, if the price of something I short goes up, I am losing money), and if it gets too high, it can run against my margin line, causing a margin call.
|
||||
|
||||
GAIN: Long Positions
|
||||
|
||||
1. Imagine I have $1000 in stock XXX (let's say 10 shares worth $100 each)
|
||||
|
||||
2. My broker may lend me margin credit line equal to the value of my assets (so $1000 in margin), and let's say they give me a margin requirement of $800, meaning that the value of my non-margin assets (the ones I bought with my money) must be above $800 in order to keep using margin (so as long as stock XXX stays above $80 a share, then I will not get a margin call for being below the requirement)
|
||||
|
||||
3. I then choose to use the margin, buying 10 more shares of stock XXX for $100 each, so I now have 20 shares of stock XXX, valued at 100$ a piece
|
||||
|
||||
4. If the price of stock XXX goes up to %25 per share, and I sell all 20 shares, I just profited $500 (+$25 on 20 shares)
|
||||
|
||||
1. In this case, closing the position clears me from the margin debt, as I am no longer using it in an open position
|
||||
|
||||
2. If I had not used margin, I would have only walked away with $250 in profit ($25 per share on 10 shares), but instead I made $500, and paid back the credit, plus a little bit of interest.
|
||||
|
||||
5. Yay.
|
||||
|
||||
LOSS: Long Positions
|
||||
|
||||
1. Imagine I have $1000 in stock XXX (let's say 10 shares worth $100 each)
|
||||
|
||||
2. My broker may lend me margin credit line equal to the value of my assets (so $1000 in margin), and let's say they give me a margin requirement of $800, meaning that the value of my non-margin assets (the ones I bought with my money) must be above $800 in order to keep using margin (so as long as stock XXX stays above $80 a share, then I will not get a margin call for being below the requirement)
|
||||
|
||||
3. I then choose to use the margin, buying 10 more shares of stock XXX for $100 each, so I now have 20 shares of stock XXX, valued at 100$ a piece
|
||||
|
||||
4. If the price of stock XXX goes down %25, bringing the value per share down to $75 a share, the value of my total position is now $1500, and the value of my non-margin assets is $750, which is below the margin requirement (keep in mind, I borrowed $1000, so that is still the amount I have to pay back)
|
||||
|
||||
5. My lender will give me a margin call, indicating I have two business days to deposit 50$ into my account in order to meet the margin requirement
|
||||
|
||||
1. If I have the cash to deposit the extra $50 would take my assets to $800 ($750 in stock XXX + 50$ cash)
|
||||
|
||||
1. If the price of stock XXX recovered to above $80 per share, it could also satisfy the requirement
|
||||
|
||||
2. If I do not have the cash to deposit, then I am in trouble, as after two days, they are allowed to liquidate (sell) the assets I bought with my own money, as well as the assets I bought on margin
|
||||
|
||||
1. Let's say this happens, all my borrowed assets are sold first to cover my $1000 loan (since the price of stock XXX was only $750, it only covers $750 of my $1000 margin line
|
||||
|
||||
2. I now have $750 left in assets of Stock X, but I still owe money from margin, so my lender is entitled to sell $250 work of my shares in order to get their full $1000 back
|
||||
|
||||
3. I am now left with $500 total ($750 in 10 shares of stock XXX - $250)
|
||||
|
||||
6. Not Yay
|
||||
|
||||
LOSS: Short and Long Positions
|
||||
|
||||
THIS IS THE RELEVANT ONE TO GME/AMC
|
||||
|
||||
1. Imagine I have $1000 in stock XXX (let's say 10 shares worth $100 each)
|
||||
|
||||
2. My broker may lend me margin credit line equal to the value of my assets (so $1000 in margin), and let's say they give me a margin requirement of $800, meaning that the value of my non-margin assets (the ones I bought with my money) must be above $800 in order to keep using margin
|
||||
|
||||
3. Instead of using the margin to buy more, I instead short 10 shares of stock YYY which is at $50 a share currently (giving me $500 in extra cash), which I use to buy 5 more shares of stock X
|
||||
|
||||
1. I am now long 15 shares of stock XXX valued at $1500 and short 10 shares of stock YYY valued at -$500 (negative $500) for a net value of $1000
|
||||
|
||||
2. No margin is actively committed to open positions, and I am still using my $1000
|
||||
|
||||
4. Now, lets say a short squeeze happens involving stock Y, causing the price to skyrocket to $200 per share
|
||||
|
||||
1. My short position is now -$2000 (10 shares of -$200 each)
|
||||
|
||||
5. My net account value is now $-500 ($1500 - $2000) which is now using my margin, and because my account's value is no longer above $800, I no longer meet margin requirements so I get a margin call
|
||||
|
||||
6. If I cannot balance my account, the lender will liquidate my $1500 in stock XXX in order to pay the -$2000 I owe, leaving me with -$500 left in debt
|
||||
|
||||
1. I have now defaulted, as I cannot pay the $500
|
||||
|
||||
7. Now that I have defaulted, the lender who gave me margin owns my short positions, meaning they are now short whatever was left
|
||||
|
||||
1. The lender can now navigate the short positions however they want (they can hold them and hope the price goes down, and cover to close them, or they can close them immediately, costing them the whole $500 I still owed)
|
||||
|
||||
8. GUH! (Translation if you are not WSB: Ah @#$%)
|
||||
|
||||
4.4 - Margin Calls Who Calls Who
|
||||
|
||||
- Margin calls happen at levels 1-4 when the cell to the left cannot meet margin requirements
|
||||
|
||||
- Broker Margin Calls Retail Traders
|
||||
|
||||
- Prime Brokers Margin Call Brokers, Hedge Funds, and Market Makers
|
||||
|
||||
- The NSCC Margin Calls Prime Brokers
|
||||
|
||||
- Defaults roll up left to right
|
||||
|
||||
- If Retail Trader defaults, Broker must take on their leftover positions
|
||||
|
||||
- If Broker, Hedge Fund, or Market Maker defaults, the Prime Broker must take on their leftover positions
|
||||
|
||||
- If Prime Broker Defaults, the NSCC must take on Position
|
||||
|
||||
- If the NSCC Defaults, the Fed must take on the position
|
||||
|
||||
| Level 1 | Level 2 | Level 3 | Level 4 | Level 4 |
|
||||
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
|
||||
| Retail Trader | Broker | Prime Broker | NSCC (DTCC) | Fed (JPOW) |
|
||||
| x | Market Maker | Prime Broker | NSCC (DTCC) | Fed (JPOW) |
|
||||
| x | Hedge Fund | Prime Broker | NSCC (DTCC) | Fed (JPOW) |
|
||||
|
||||
4.5 - Short Squeeze
|
||||
|
||||
- A [Short Squeeze](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/shortsqueeze.asp) is a market event that occurs when there is a large short position on a stock whose price rapidly increases higher than expected, normally due to a catalyst
|
||||
|
||||
- During the short squeeze, the losses of those who have short positions continue to increase higher it goes
|
||||
|
||||
- Since they owe shares, the cost to cover their position increases depending on how high the price goes (there is theoretically no limit on how high a stock can go)
|
||||
|
||||
- As market participants who are short on the stock buy to cover, supply decreases and demand increases, causing the price to increase even more rapidly
|
||||
|
||||
- While short sellers are scrambling to cover their positions, the rapid price change may entice investors who are not short on the stock to buy it in order to make a quick profit
|
||||
|
||||
- Again, lowering supply and increasing demand
|
||||
|
||||
VI. The Mother of All Short Squeezes (MOASS)
|
||||
|
||||
Explanation
|
||||
|
||||
Now that we have gone through the many important terms, we can get to the theory behind MOASS.
|
||||
|
||||
Due excessive short-selling and naked shorting of GME by certain market participants (primarily large hedge funds and market makers), retail investors and long institutional investors collectively own a number of shares that exceeds the the float. The amount of shares that are currently owned is theorized to range roughly between 200%-400% of the float if not more, meaning that 100%-300% of the float has a corresponding short position (mostly naked shorts). For context, most stocks generally have around 1% Short Interest, and 10%-20% short interest is considered to be excessive, let alone over 100% of it.
|
||||
|
||||
Short sellers must eventually close, or cover, their short position
|
||||
|
||||
- The only way to do that is to buy the shares owned by the investors who are long
|
||||
|
||||
- in the meantime Short-sellers are paying interest on that short position until it is closed proportional to the cost of the shares, which bleeds their capital over time
|
||||
|
||||
- Unfortunately for the short sellers, the owners of the shares ARE NOT obligated to sell their shares.
|
||||
|
||||
- The short-sellers, however, ARE obligated to buy in order to close their position (or else keep paying interest)
|
||||
|
||||
So what happens if no one is selling the shares they are "long" on, but short sellers need to buy them?
|
||||
|
||||
- Supply and Demand
|
||||
|
||||
- With very little supply and high demand, the price of a stock can increase far beyond its fundamental value
|
||||
|
||||
- If short sellers receive a margin call due to no longer meeting their margin requirement and are unable to meet it in time, their assets will be forcibly liquidated by their lender in order to pay back the margin, as well as close out the position if the borrower defaults
|
||||
|
||||
If you are wondering why an organization would abusively short a stock like this if they eventually have to cover their positions:
|
||||
|
||||
- If a company goes bankrupt or gets delisted from the stock market:
|
||||
|
||||
- The short sellers DO NOT have to close the position
|
||||
|
||||
- All of the proceeds from the short sale effectively disappear from their books
|
||||
|
||||
- They do not even have to pay taxes on this profit
|
||||
|
||||
Short positions amount to the total number of long positions minus the float, meaning (based on the theorized range) that somewhere between ~56-170 Million shares will need to be bought in order to close all short positions
|
||||
|
||||
- It is expected that the members with short positions (hedge funds and market makers who have been naked shorting the stock) will be unable to cover their short positions, resulting in a situation where their lenders, all the way up to the clearinghouse (DTCC) will have to sort out the positions
|
||||
|
||||
- If the DTCC/NSCC is forced to unwind the positions, it is widely believed that they will rapidly cover short positions at whatever price they are available for (this is how their systems are said to handle a member default), liquidating whatever assets are necessary from the defaulting member
|
||||
|
||||
Consideration
|
||||
|
||||
This is a totally unprecedented situation, so, in truth, there is a lot of uncertainty around what wind-down will look like once this gets to the Prime Brokers (major banks) and NSCC, as well as around how high the price peak will reach. There is a real risk of broad negative impact across the entire market because of this and the current Repo Rates and margin debt.
|
||||
|
||||
A few things I think are safe to assume are:
|
||||
|
||||
- Before anything happens that will cap or negatively affect the MOASS, all of the Hedge Funds and Market Makers who conspired to manipulate the market will likely have been bankrupted and eliminated from the market landscape by then
|
||||
|
||||
- Prime Brokers will have been dealt a massive blow (like Credit Suisse after Archegos Collapse by way worse) that should hopefully ensure regulators tie up every loophole that was exploited to manipulate the market and harm it
|
||||
|
||||
- The peak will reach higher than any other short squeeze in history and will likely never be beaten in the future (EVER)
|
||||
|
||||
VII. Final thoughts...
|
||||
|
||||
This is the GME MOASS thesis. GME is a stock that stands to hit an unprecedented price point due to the fact that manipulators of the market have failed to bankrupt GameStop thanks in huge part to [the Legendary Keith Gill AKA u/DeepFuckingValue](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Keith_Gill), [Ryan Cohen](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ryan_Cohen), [Michael Burry](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Michael_Burry), and all of the GME investors who took part in this saga. It may not be today, this week, or even this month, but one day soon, these toxic participants have no choice but to buy the stock to close out their short positions.
|
||||
|
||||
In some schools of thought, it is thought that these participants over-estimated how "reasonable" retail investors can be (who could be dumb enough to hold a stock as it fell from almost $500 to $40?). In truth, these manipulators didn't understand the demographic they were fighting with. Gamers are some of the most stubborn people on the planet. These are individuals who will sink tens of thousands of hours into the same video game because "they just like it". Well, "we like the stock", and to us, the adversaries on Wall Street just are just another "boss". We may have needed to retry a couple times, but we always win eventually. On top of that, they pissed off reddit, and under no circumstances, should you ever piss off reddit.
|
||||
|
||||
At this point, if you are still reading this, know that it is up to you to decide your next move, whether that is to do some due diligence of your own, walk away, or say screw it and buy a few (or a lot of) shares just in case we are right. Many of us have set our floor (minimum amount of acceptable gains) at $20,000,000 per share, and you might think that is crazy, but in truth, we know we can pick our own price if we hold long enough. We don't care if anyone else buys or not, because we know the outcome is inevitable. Time is running out for the toxic market participants involved, and even the news can't hide that we are on the brink of a massive market event that will ripple through the entire global financial system, and we will probably never see an event like this again in our lifetime.
|
||||
|
||||
This is a fight Wall Street, Shitadel, Melvin Capital, and ever other toxic party is not going to win against the "dumb money". Chances are this will truly be "THE MOASS", meaning there will never be another like it in our lifetime (or ever). While the conditions in play (the ability for big money to brutally manipulate the market) enabled what may end up being the greatest transfer of wealth in history, actual reformation to prevent a landscape like this from forming again is probably best long term (I say this as a pragmatist, and am honestly very far from an idealist). If you want to influence reform, Buy, Hold, Vote. If you are just here for the tendies, Buy, Hold, Vote.
|
||||
|
||||
VIII. TL;DR
|
||||
|
||||
1. Toxic Market Participants have built up massive [short positions](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/short.asp) made through [Naked Shorting](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/n/nakedshorting.asp)
|
||||
|
||||
2. Retail caught on to this strategy and discovered it can backfire if the company being shorted does not go bankrupt, especially if shares are bought and held indefinitely
|
||||
|
||||
3. Rules and regulations have implemented by the DTCC and its subsidiaries have been geared towards preventing market collapse, as well as to minimize the ability to perform illegal trades (naked shorting)
|
||||
|
||||
4. The SEC is also doing more to enforce compliance with the "rules"
|
||||
|
||||
5. The manipulators are at the mercy of a vicious trade cycle (t+21 FTD Cycle) that is forcing those with naked short positions to perform actions to [cover](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/shortcovering.asp) (buy back shares that are short), or risk regulatory consequences
|
||||
|
||||
6. This act of rapid covering drives up the price, making it more expensive to cover during the next cycle if the share price continues to increase week over week
|
||||
|
||||
7. Eventually, the prices of GME will get so high that prime brokers/clearing houses will have no choice but to [Margin Call](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/m/margincall.asp) these participants which most likely will not be affordable due to the nature of [Short Squeezes](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/shortsqueeze.asp), causing them to default
|
||||
|
||||
8. The [Prime-Brokers](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/p/primebrokerage.asp) will then take on the position, and if the Prime Brokers cannot cover them and also defaults, the NSCC will be next to attempt to settle all positions left over based on their [Recovery and Wind-down Plan (p42)](https://www.dtcc.com/~/media/Files/Downloads/legal/policy-and-compliance/NSCC_Disclosure_Framework.pdf)
|
||||
|
||||
9. If NSCC cannot afford to close everything with the money reserved for this type of situation, they the Fed must navigate the remaining positions (potentially via printing money/bailout)
|
||||
|
||||
IX. STILL TL;DR
|
||||
|
||||
Margin Calls happen across the market and force all market participants with short positions in GME to cover or go bankrupt if they cannot afford to. The NSCC's systems that will settle positions after mass defaults liquidates all short hedge funds and covers as much GME as it can. If the NSCC cannot pay everything, it fails up to the Fed and JPOW to print money to settle the trades.
|
||||
|
||||
X. Hedgies, velkommen til helvete. Vi kommer for tårene dine.
|
||||
|
||||
START EDITS LOG edit: 6/10/21 12:28PM ET Added google drive link but switched with one drive so it wouldn't display who is looking at the file (unless they are in incognito)
|
||||
|
||||
edit: 6/10/21 1:08PM ET Updated link to a onedrive anonymously shared link (shouldn't show who is viewing it, but you might consider accessing the link via an incognito window). <https://onedrive.live.com/?authkey=%21AF%2D4Ar3%2DZkRC6ZE&cid=A204BFD088578646&id=A204BFD088578646%21106&parId=A204BFD088578646%21103&o=OneUp>
|
||||
|
||||
edit: 6/10/21 1:51PM ET Minor typo (extra bullet). Removed from 3.4 (prime brokers).
|
||||
|
||||
edit: 6/10/21 2:10PM ET IMPORTANT NOTE - Feel free to share and distribute as appropriate if you feel there is value in doing so (and obviously only if you are comfortable doing so). Like I said, I don't care about credit, but I do care about getting exposure of GME, naked shorting, and the manipulation in the market. We have been getting hit with shills and FUD inside and outside the community courtesy of the SHF's tactics. Getting the good information we have out (passively, I am not saying to push it on people or to be intrusive) is one of the few tactics we have against the SHFs outside of 💎🙌. They weaponized social media and MSM; so can we (but with DD, not shilling and perpetuating FUD).
|
||||
|
||||
END EDITS LOG
|
243
DD/2021-06-30-The-Engame-Connecting-the-Dots.md
Normal file
243
DD/2021-06-30-The-Engame-Connecting-the-Dots.md
Normal file
@ -0,0 +1,243 @@
|
||||
||The Endgame ||- connecting the dots.
|
||||
======================================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/flaming_pope](https://www.reddit.com/user/flaming_pope/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/ob9s4s/the_endgame_connecting_the_dots/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
[DD 👨🔬](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22DD%20%F0%9F%91%A8%E2%80%8D%F0%9F%94%AC%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/plzxtv2zqh871.jpg?width=1112&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=2ebb298b1ec7f8ca6b1b36b3f632fffa743f008e)
|
||||
|
||||
It's all coming together!
|
||||
|
||||
Here I try to combine all the great DD found here on this sub, and try to distill the final endgame from the available DD.
|
||||
|
||||
I'm also releasing this at a point when it's too late for shorts, and it's gameover. If I'm wrong then this DD is meaningless. If I'm right, shorts are strapped into final destination while a dental clairvoyant describes their death to them in clear detail.
|
||||
|
||||
TLDR;
|
||||
|
||||
Edit: ETF SHORTING is the main point of this post, and more attention needs to be placed there. NOT crypt0 - it's a sidepoint. Anyone bringing up excess attention to the sidepoint should have their post history checked for shill bias.
|
||||
|
||||
- Fatal mistake by shorts on 6-9-2021 when GME's ETF's were all shorted at once. ETF's work on T+6 settlement.
|
||||
|
||||
- Doesn't matter what shorts do, checkmate was set following completion of 5 million share offering during earnings call.
|
||||
|
||||
- ~~Cypto announcement will be the match.~~ T+35 FTDs will be the Fuel. (speculation, sidepoint)
|
||||
|
||||
- GME Q2 ends Aug-1, need more wrinkles thinking about this than just me.
|
||||
|
||||
- ETFs containing GME (ETFGME) will rocket, all other ETFs with overlap with ETFGMEs will crater.
|
||||
|
||||
- If you have wallet already, set aside digital currency in preperation to remove Gamecoin from circulation as soon as it launches (no collusion, also it's just good to be first)
|
||||
|
||||
- Kenny/Citadel may just be the fall guy, I speculate it's much deeper than just their figurehead.
|
||||
|
||||
//
|
||||
|
||||
Preface
|
||||
|
||||
I'm not a financial advisor. Everything stated here should be taken as speculation. As a matter of fact I'm actually down like 20K in paper losses. If anything do the opposite of what I'm doing - or don't lol. Simply put I'm a nobody, with dreams of putting an end to this financial slavery.
|
||||
|
||||
For the most part most of this should be read in order. If you need to go back to read up on some of the sub topic go ahead - time is mostly on YOUR side.
|
||||
|
||||
This DD is certainly rushed, while building up a multi-month position and there's probably a TON of spelling and grammer mistakes throughout. So do forgive this once dropped as a baby Ape. With that out of the way, here's a summary of what I've pieced together thanks to this great community, and special users discussed below. If you keep reading till the end, there's also a speculative arguement to be had with social media and the rest.
|
||||
|
||||
//
|
||||
|
||||
Acronym Index and Glossary (copied over from Anon's DD for quick reference):
|
||||
|
||||
Because I always wish the SEC included these, for the Fed if nothing else
|
||||
|
||||
ETF - Exchange-Traded-Fund - Simply put, ETFs are a hybrid between funds and stocks. They, like any fund, hold some portfolio of securities. And like any stock, they trade as shares on open exchanges. For example, SPY is an ETF with a portfolio designed to mimic the S&P 500 index.
|
||||
|
||||
ETFGME - ETFs containing GME
|
||||
|
||||
FTD - Failure-to-Deliver - after the sale of a security, the seller (believe it or not) has 3 days to deliver the security to the buyer, otherwise the share is deemed failed-to-deliver - a FTD.
|
||||
|
||||
AP - Authorized Participant - "An authorized participant is an organization that has the right to create and redeem shares of an exchange traded fund (ETF)....When there is a shortage of ETF shares in the market, authorized participants can make more. Conversely, authorized participants will reduce ETF shares in circulation when the price of the ETF is lower than the price of the underlying shares. That can be done with the creation and redemption mechanism that keeps the price of an ETF aligned with its underlying net asset value (NAV)."
|
||||
|
||||
MM - Market Maker - Market Makers, very generally, oversee markets and quote bid/ask prices to create a spread. They stand ready to buy or sell in their market, and they have algorithms coded to hedge these transactions and profit from arbitrage along the way.
|
||||
|
||||
HF(s) - Hedge fund(s)
|
||||
|
||||
//
|
||||
|
||||
THE SHOULDERS OF GIANTS - REQUIRED READING.
|
||||
|
||||
Part 1: The FTD Cycle.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/s3odahn1rh871.png?width=616&format=png&auto=webp&s=8c3f53e1404d686cf2a0cbae90e06d873e4d0a94)
|
||||
|
||||
Not enough credit can be given to [u/dentisttft](https://www.reddit.com/u/dentisttft/) and his post detailing the T+35 FTD cycle, SLD periods, and how it relates to volatility in GME.
|
||||
|
||||
This is a must read to understand the bigger picture, and give this guy more awards.
|
||||
|
||||
<https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/o155a6/t35_is_the_one_true_cycle_evidence_to_back_my/>
|
||||
|
||||
Main take aways:
|
||||
|
||||
- T+21 are approximations of T+35's low liquidity periods.
|
||||
|
||||
- FTDs are created T+#settlement trading days. For regular naked shorting this is T+2. (more on settlement dates later)
|
||||
|
||||
- MM's wait to cover to attempt to maximize their profits.
|
||||
|
||||
- 34 calendar days after the generation of an FTD, MM's must cover. (T+35 days if you count day of FTD creation)
|
||||
|
||||
Part 2: Shorting through ETF's
|
||||
|
||||
In a mysterious fashion, a now deleted user [/u/leavemeanon](https://www.reddit.com/u/leavemeanon/) (Anon) dropped the mother of all DD's detailing how MMs and HFs can use ETF's to short a stock.
|
||||
|
||||
There's been numerous references by Gamestop to this user, but nothing else is known about [/u/leavemeanon](https://www.reddit.com/u/leavemeanon/) or his real origins.
|
||||
|
||||
Though the original user and posts are gone, [u/VoxUmbra](https://www.reddit.com/u/VoxUmbra/) was nice enough to find and upload an archive of [/u/leavemeanon](https://www.reddit.com/u/leavemeanon/)'s posts.
|
||||
|
||||
Read all 3 parts.
|
||||
|
||||
<https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nt8ot8/rip_uleavemeanon_where_are_the_shares_part_1/?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share>
|
||||
|
||||
Main take aways:
|
||||
|
||||
- APs and MM can short securities by selling ETFs without finding underlying shares to create said ETF. Like selling a fruit basket, but promising the fruit later.
|
||||
|
||||
- This is made possible due to a T+6 settlement of ETFs, and another securties act 1933 loophole allowing OFF-THE-BOOKS record keeping if you decompose an ETF. These shorts are naked and untracked by SI%.
|
||||
|
||||
- Insitutions can theoretically cycle ETFs every 6 days to hide shorts indefinitely, while being eaten alive by interest and premium.
|
||||
|
||||
- ETFs alone hold nearly the entire float of GME on their own without a single share of retail.
|
||||
|
||||
Part 3: Hints at Overvote.
|
||||
|
||||
The single greatest piece of direct evidence of an overvote is this rounding error found by [u/Rimigo42](https://www.reddit.com/u/Rimigo42/)
|
||||
|
||||
<https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/comments/nw9sl1/math_error_in_8k_filing_possible_a_typo_that/>
|
||||
|
||||
Other hints at overvoting:
|
||||
|
||||
<https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nx9awr/there_was_an_overvote_the_votes_were_trimmed_to/>
|
||||
|
||||
<https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nw8ak8/you_cant_report_an_overvote_on_an_8k_pass_it_on/>
|
||||
|
||||
Main take aways:
|
||||
|
||||
- Rounding error indicates votes ARE trimmed.
|
||||
|
||||
- Trimming is *typically* reserved for overvotes.
|
||||
|
||||
Part 4: Regulation and recent changes to chess board.
|
||||
|
||||
<https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/o57231/dtcc_icc_occ_nscc_have_covered_their_assess/>
|
||||
|
||||
Main take aways:
|
||||
|
||||
- 002 makes everyday an SLR period, and no longer on a rolling cycle. (Added to federal registar, now official)
|
||||
|
||||
- Rest are generally there to protect the core DTCC, not malicious shorting HFs.
|
||||
|
||||
//
|
||||
|
||||
MOASS
|
||||
|
||||
Warning this is kinda datey, no promises. You gotta keep up the hype though, Hedge funds are hoping to drag this out hoping to collect enough option premium from retail to cover their losses. Time is mostly on our side (months), but wait too long and they WILL defuse the situation by eating retail premium.
|
||||
|
||||
Ok lets start. We all know GME has been in a fight with predatory trading practices for awhile now. To the extent we find ourselves at the very beginnings of a short squeeze. We know this thanks to the hard work of [u/dentisttft](https://www.reddit.com/u/dentisttft/) who broke the FTD code as indicated above. However, last month the publicly known FTDs HAVE died down quite a bit as indicated on SEC's website. I use the word publicily here because as Anon has pointed out, many naked shorts can be hidden through the use of ETFs - more on that later.
|
||||
|
||||
Lets first take a look at the events of 6-9-2021, the day prior to ShareHolder's Meeting. It is a not a fond memory for many apes. The 5 million share offering did hurt the price after the announcement, but what really made things bad at the time was the intentional capitulation /short ladder BEFORE the meeting by shorts causing a 10% decrease even before GME tried raising capital - THIS IS WHY WE HOLD, money going to hedgies rather than the company that needs it!.
|
||||
|
||||
As pointed out by ZION LION [u/ZIONLIO29288757](https://www.reddit.com/u/ZIONLIO29288757/) on twitter here:
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/00nkii14rh871.png?width=589&format=png&auto=webp&s=faecc15e333fa1b0678d6811bc7ae57a8071a0ca)
|
||||
|
||||
Many of ETF were sold short. What does this mean from the perspective of MOASS? Well a few things.
|
||||
|
||||
As Anon explained: ETFs can be unpacked to retreive the shares inside. What I suspect happened are that MM and other HFs that knew an offering was going to take place, purchased a bunch of ETFGMEs while simutaneously shorting GME. MMs(et al.) can later unpack ETFGMEs to cover their shorts. But this leaves a question where are the naked shorts?
|
||||
|
||||
Well Anon answered that too. Shorts created by selling uncovered ETFs do NOT have to be reported unless they turn into FTDs at T+6 due to a loophole in the Securities Act of 1933. However, you can cover your prior naked short by buying yet another ETFGME and unpacking it, thus passing the naked short down the line to the next AP that created the uncovered ETF - and best of all, not report it to anyone. This is equivalent to selling empty fruit baskets without the fruit, and covering said basket with another empty basket every 6 days. ETFGMEs holders are owed GME shares.
|
||||
|
||||
And as Anon has pointed out, GME's entire float is already locked within ETF shares without counting a single retail share. Considering that at the same time we apes also hold the near entirety of the float back in April 15th, we know this based off GME's 8-K filing. There is undeniabily, at a minimum 1x float worth of GME naked shorts floating around (even excluding overvote scenario). the MOASS will be a financial lesson taught to your grandchildren for decades to come (if you decide to have them). This doesn't even take into account an overvote, nor possibility of any naked shorts overseas due to different reporting regulations overseas. Buckle Up.
|
||||
|
||||
The fatal moves of 6-9-2021:
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/7ljlofc5rh871.png?width=1349&format=png&auto=webp&s=473eb82eb33834db86f30bcd09b95c6249bff9ff)
|
||||
|
||||
This was delta neutral MM's shorting GME and covering their shorts almost immediately by buying ETFGMEs, and passing the naked GME short onto the ETFGME creator - the AP's (think Citadel et al.). It would become near impossible to hide the FTDs from the T+6 settlement, as naked shorts would preoccupy the next ETF. Looking at settlement, FTDs from 6-9-2021's ETFGME short should occur on 6-17-2021.
|
||||
|
||||
The following day on 6-10-2021, we all remember was the day of the combined 10% + 10% drop. The pre-dilution 10% drop was the initial MM short + covering, the next drop however was all AP's (Citadel et al.) plus the added selling pressure by 5 million share dilution. Effectively GME was shorted twice by AP's, and probably covered half by the drop. Leading me to think AP's and Short HFs have net added to their short positions since earnings. This is well suported by the daily short volume on GME being greater than 50%. Because 6-10's were normal shorts - FTDs would be created on 6-14-2021. This coordinated (COLLUSION) attack by combined MM's and AP's was likely aimed at full capitulation, they FAILED and all they did was use up a lot of their firepower, further increased their short position, and set the floor we are trading now.
|
||||
|
||||
Why these dates are important. FTD filings and SEC reports occur on the 14th, and last day of the month, meaning we will only see at most HALF of total shorts reported this Wednesday 6-30-2021. Keep that in mind, because we'll be see increasing GME FTDs through this month's report on last month's FTD activities.
|
||||
|
||||
| Short Type | Settlement | GME occurrence | FTD creation | SEC reports | T+35 covering |
|
||||
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
|
||||
| Naked ETF shorting | T+6 trading | 06/09/21 | 06/17/21 | 07/15/21 | 07/21/21 |
|
||||
| Naked Stock Shorting | T+2 trading | 06/10/21 | 06/14/21 | 06/30/21 | 07/18/21 |
|
||||
|
||||
SEC report dates here:
|
||||
|
||||
<https://www.sec.gov/data/foiadocsfailsdatahtm>
|
||||
|
||||
This will start the ball rolling as long HFs will be watching the FTDs. A sizable increase in FTDs would green light Long HFs to start adding a ton of buying pressure. Remember T+21 is a FUD narrative (only an approximation on SLR and the real T+35, which is now patched with DTCC-002). This will continue throughout most of July, because of DTCC-002 SLR is everyday.
|
||||
|
||||
I was able to pull the FTD data from today, so if you turn your attention here, you'll can see the FTD uptick.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/1zg9gg67rh871.png?width=733&format=png&auto=webp&s=5d2597bdf74cb7ed123234572deb8439c656f566)
|
||||
|
||||
Another key is concentrated buying pressure - because of how the US markets are constructed. Long play BS (the way it's portrayed) on [r/superstonk](https://www.reddit.com/r/superstonk/) is by far some of the worst FUD here, not just because it's bad investment advice, but because it is a pathologically lazy statement for people thinking the price will climb slowly to millions over their lifetime, and they can get in 2 months from now and expect the price to still be at $200. Think of this from the FTD POV, the only way to increase FTDs is concentrated buying pressure. This is a battle against market manipulation, if shorts win the price will fall and will never make it's way back up because they will reinforce a ceiling by buying and controlling the float themselves, but a retail win will cement a higher floor as the FTD bug provides a floor that locks wealth in the market and makes it hard for new shorts to push the price down. Someone do a seperate DD on this! It is in Gamestop's best interest for retail win as it would mean more capital in the long term. HFs manipulate and pull liquidity away during capital raises, making it hard and even costly to raise capital - Retail has no such problem.
|
||||
|
||||
//
|
||||
|
||||
SPECULATIVE SOCIAL REASONING FOR MOASS AND HYPE
|
||||
|
||||
Interestingly I believe there's a good chance Ryan Cohen is going to trigger the MOASS with the announcement of a Gamecoin (speculation, sidepoint). As prior posts have pointed out, there's a hidden launch date hardcoded to 7-14-21. There's alot of good DD on this topic, mainly because most of the shills don't actually know enough about the topic (shill lackey). Generally, at the launch of digital coins, either they are bought at open market immediately or they are sold prior to stakers who then sell on the open market.
|
||||
|
||||
Digital currency is unique amongst all securities, in that it's value is driven purely by supply and demand. Given a fair exchange without excess leverage, the price of the currency is dictated by the holder, where it should be.
|
||||
|
||||
This means it pays to be first buyer of any Gamestop coin, especially if it's tied to your GME shares. To be first you need to have funds readily available for trading to purchase the moment any potential Gamecoin hits the market. Unfortunately, anyone that's tried digital currency knows there's typically a waiting period on USD funds. This can be bypassed by having a digital wallet with funds ready to go to quickly send funds to Gamecoin's host exchange. So heads up ^^ here.
|
||||
|
||||
Edit, to be clear: GME is the play. Heads up is referring IF you already have a wallet.
|
||||
|
||||
If a Gamecoin is released, you can be dam sure the Gamecoin price will skyrocket (As any holder of shorts will need to pay this coin to shareholders). However, it would make very little sense to allow the coin to be sold first to the open market if it's first being distributed as a dividend. Though ultimately this is a mute point in the case of real short interest being over 100%, as GameStop would simply only release just the right amount of coins to cover the float. Market forces and a proper working exchange will manage the rest.
|
||||
|
||||
So if we assume the GameCoin will be used as a dividend, when does GameStop need to make the announcement?
|
||||
|
||||
10 calendar days prior to date of record - July 4th.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/3g70o8r8rh871.png?width=598&format=png&auto=webp&s=0b91f4f32348122b51e49c64ecf16848e9fa3758)
|
||||
|
||||
Solve the Anagrams, Win a prize!
|
||||
|
||||
//
|
||||
|
||||
Calling everyday Hype is FUD, concentrated hype is how you break sell-walls and force shorts to cover
|
||||
|
||||
Here's a Hype Calendar Summarizing the above:
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/4ogw319arh871.png?width=921&format=png&auto=webp&s=83a2876392a795c056651c5af1809e138a0cf6fe)
|
||||
|
||||
//
|
||||
|
||||
TECHNICAL REASONS FOR MOASS
|
||||
|
||||
I want to give a shout out to Reddit-censored youtuber**. Who's most of the time down to earth. In one of his more recent summaries found [here](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WCSb61wD7aM) he made an interesting observation.
|
||||
|
||||
There are bullish technical indicators all around indicating huge suppression and fuckery, as of late.
|
||||
|
||||
**PS. Debugging the reddit filters was a pain - LMFAO, you can't drop his name on reddit.
|
||||
|
||||
As a Technical Analysis(TA) guy myself. Here's just ONE example:
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/nu1dkj0grh871.png?width=1305&format=png&auto=webp&s=e76e15f15757ca1710530d5450bac3b2859a31e9)
|
||||
|
||||
But really confirm it for yourself, pull up really any reliable TA metric designed to track fuckery, like RSI/MACD divergence, Bollinger Bands, Crayon lines, you name it. We are overdue for a huge correction upward. The Hype is real.
|
||||
|
||||
//
|
||||
|
||||
In short, I am but one Ape trading on my own.
|
||||
|
||||
This DD is in my best interest as the more educated we Apes are, the more concentrated firepower we have as a whole. It pays to be on the same page.
|
||||
|
||||
Edit: I am NOT suggesting you buy digital currency (it's not confirmed and is pure speculation). But heads up if you happen to have a wallet.
|
||||
|
||||
Edit2: This is why I love the community, the reviewers. A commentor below pointed out Gamestop's Q1 ended May 1st. This puts Gamestop's Q2 end on Aug 1st. I will have to think about this, if dividend is justified.
|
@ -0,0 +1,65 @@
|
||||
Why are we being left in the dark? Why all the cryptic tweets? Why doesn't Ryan Cohen just tell us what's up? ......Enter the Standstill Agreement that doesn't allow Ryan Cohen to speak openly about GameStop until 2022
|
||||
======================================================================================================================================================================================================================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/Ginger_Libra](https://www.reddit.com/user/Ginger_Libra/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/oh3ocf/why_are_we_being_left_in_the_dark_why_all_the/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
|
||||
[DD 👨🔬](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22DD%20%F0%9F%91%A8%E2%80%8D%F0%9F%94%AC%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||
January bag holder here. We used to talk about this more in the other subs and I felt like it was common knowledge. I'm not smart enough to have research this myself but I looked it up again because there seems to be a lot of shit talking and confusion.
|
||||
|
||||
Ryan Cohen and RC Ventures entered into a Standstill Agreement on January 10, 2021 that has a long list of provisions that essentially prohibits him from speaking out directly.
|
||||
|
||||
Specifically, he is not allowed to influence voting or board votes and another long list of activities until about March 1, 2022.
|
||||
|
||||
<https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1326380/000119380521000031/e620202_ex99-1.htm>
|
||||
|
||||
So for everyone wondering why things are quiet, this is why.
|
||||
|
||||
Here's the deal.
|
||||
|
||||
This week sucked. Next week is uncertain. The DTC/other colluders rules we've been waiting for don't appear to have made a difference in hedge fund fuckery. We took a beating.
|
||||
|
||||
I bought my first share at $350. I held to $38.
|
||||
|
||||
I want tendies. But I'm not fucking leaving over this. Never. I'm out when the share price looks big for Kenny and his pals, not when it looks big to me. That's the only way I'm selling.
|
||||
|
||||
And you know what? I trust Ryan Cohen. I know he has a plan. I know he will do right by us.
|
||||
|
||||
He isn't talking to us because he can't. But he is communicating. And it's going to be fine. Better than fine. It's going to be fucking glorious. Life altering.
|
||||
|
||||
It's coming. Changing corrupt financial systems and taking down evil villains ain't easy. That's why super hero's have movies about them. Shits hard.
|
||||
|
||||
It's Friday. Go fuck off. Have a tasty beverage. Get some sun on your face this weekend. Get laid if there is someone who will enthusiastically consent to fucking you. Or just willingly consent.
|
||||
|
||||
Tomorrow is a new week. NFT week. Could be nothing. Could be everything. Everything is coming.
|
||||
|
||||
In the meantime, dream your dreams about what you're going to do with your tendies.
|
||||
|
||||
I'm fixing this fucking planet I love so much. Apes are going to find a solution for climate change. I'm going to be a part of that movement. I'm making my plans.
|
||||
|
||||
You do you. There's lots of broken shit in this fucked up system.
|
||||
|
||||
Come back Monday ready to hype.
|
||||
|
||||
TL;DR: Papa Cohen can't say anything publicly until around March 1, 2022.
|
||||
|
||||
Wen moon? Soon moon.
|
||||
|
||||
Edit to add: because I am spelling everything out....remember, Kenny and his buddies aren't going down easily or we'd all be rich by now.
|
||||
|
||||
Everything needs to be above board so that GameStop and RC don't get sued. I'm sure they will get sued but the goal is to not have anything substantive behind it.
|
||||
|
||||
He also has to watch what he says to the SEC doesn't get him for market manipulation. He has to watch his mouth to protect us and protect our tendies.
|
||||
|
||||
Elon has gotten in trouble for this. And RC is smarter than Elon so he is walking a finer line.
|
||||
|
||||
Second edit: some of you seem to think the Standstill Agreement ends after he became 🪑👨. It does not and if it's amended or changed it would be filed with the SEC.
|
||||
|
||||
The Standstill Agreement protects GameStop from a hostile takeover. Hostile takeovers of corporate boards are a whole other post. This is a not so hostile takeover.
|
||||
|
||||
Other chairman and CEOs can speak out because they didn't buy shares to join a company. They don't have Standstill agreements.
|
@ -0,0 +1,95 @@
|
||||
T+21. The game of Hide & Seek is finally over. And while I'm at it I might as well try to prove how July 14th is going to become our new January 13th.
|
||||
======================================================================================================================================================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/JaboniThxDad](https://www.reddit.com/user/JaboniThxDad/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/DDintoGME/comments/ohm7uq/t21_the_game_of_hide_seek_is_finally_over_and/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
|
||||
[𝘜𝘯𝘷𝘦𝘳𝘪𝘧𝘪𝘦𝘥 𝘋𝘋](https://www.reddit.com/r/DDintoGME/search?q=flair_name%3A%22%F0%9D%98%9C%F0%9D%98%AF%F0%9D%98%B7%F0%9D%98%A6%F0%9D%98%B3%F0%9D%98%AA%F0%9D%98%A7%F0%9D%98%AA%F0%9D%98%A6%F0%9D%98%A5%20%F0%9D%98%8B%F0%9D%98%8B%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||
January 13th... What am I talking about?
|
||||
|
||||
January 13th is what I refer to as *Day 0*. This was *'the spike'* that caused the build-up to our January mini-squeeze. I'll explain everything as we move along chronologically but first, let's establish some patterns.
|
||||
|
||||
What happened in the 12 days prior to January 13th? Our volume had lows down to 4.9 million and highs up to 14.9 million. Also, our prices saw lows down to $17.08 and highs up to $21.97.
|
||||
|
||||
Then the 13th happened. Boom. 144 million volume in a single day. That's more than 1.5 times the volume of the previous 12 days *combined*. We opened at $20.42, reached a high of $38.65 and ended up closing at $31.40.
|
||||
|
||||
Then over the next 5 days we reached lows of $33.05, highs of $45.52 and on the 6th day we appeared to start going parabolic. That 6th day, we reached a high of $76.76, Day 7, a high of $159.18, Day 8... $150, Day 9... $380, Day 10... $483.
|
||||
|
||||
Don't worry. I won't go into as much detail going forward. I'm just trying to demonstrate why the above matters, especially the part where we appear to start going parabolic close to Day 6 after every spike.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/nxomkyjtyea71.jpg?width=1176&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=290b06fd0f9239546b84f49234f6256452182513)
|
||||
|
||||
Day 0 and its aftermath
|
||||
|
||||
January 25th
|
||||
|
||||
A lot of people lost faith in the 21-day cycle. I never did and I'll do my best to explain why. If you look at the chart, you can see what happened on the 25th of January, 7 days after our spike. I believe this is the day that short sellers trapped themselves into a cycle that would begin the creation of our glorious cup.
|
||||
|
||||
February 24th
|
||||
|
||||
Day 21. We hit 67.4 million volume on this day. The price opened at $44.70 and we reached both a high and a close of $91.71. This spike started the run-up to the peak of the left side of our cup. Once again, it appeared we started going parabolic around Day 6 and as of Day 10 we hit our March peak, the left side of our cup... $348.50. We consolidated in the days leading up to the 24th of February and did experience more volume on that day than any of the days leading up to it during our consolidation period but it was not as drastic as what had happened in January.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/qs18bxnuyea71.jpg?width=1175&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=fb7d2eee08e5c20c8e6ec8c0af871467c722967c)
|
||||
|
||||
February 24th volume & price spike preceded by lower volume and followed by sideways trading prior to a parabolic move
|
||||
|
||||
March 25th
|
||||
|
||||
Day 21. We hit 50.4 million volume on this day. The price opened at $123.49, we reached a high of $187.50 and closed at $183.75. We once again start experiencing consolidation from Day 1 to Day 5 and what happens on Day 6 when we normally end up going parabolic? A share offering of 3.5 million at-the-market is announced. Without this, we would have went parabolic and the cup would have been invalidated. *Welcome to the chess game.*
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/ojqf0ywvyea71.jpg?width=1182&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=a8505ff421d32b0646cc9fa7ea0f8a88daad1375)
|
||||
|
||||
This one is not like the others and for good reason
|
||||
|
||||
April 26th
|
||||
|
||||
Day 21. This is where people lost faith in the 21-day cycle. But they shouldn't have. Why? Remember that share offering announced on April 5th? Well, it was announced as completed at the end of trading on the 26th and I believe it re-established the 21-day cycle. Perfectly played. Yes, we're definitely watching a chess match. Check.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/ljv29v5zyea71.jpg?width=420&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=54d8dfdf54dd186fe8dc84d4f7295ff558b5dc5c)
|
||||
|
||||
I see you
|
||||
|
||||
May 25th
|
||||
|
||||
Day 21. 14.4 million volume. We opened at $181, reached a high of $217.11 and settled in with a close of $209.43. On Day 9 we reach the peak of the right side of our cup with a high of $344.66. What happens on Day 10? Welcome to our June 9th at-the-market share offering. This is the beginning of our handle. Check.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/6zw2yzzazea71.jpg?width=1179&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=25b5dde81650e0d0a51331a2be5c32099c2c6f46)
|
||||
|
||||
I heard you all like pictures so I made you one
|
||||
|
||||
June 24th
|
||||
|
||||
What about June 24th? Well, I've seen a lot of people mention that they don't think the share offerings are impacting the price much at all. No disrespect to anybody but I believe this is entirely wrong. I think it's clear that it did so back in April and also again in June. Not only did GameStop kindly offer a total of 8.5 million more shares At-The-Market which short sellers could have used to cover if they so wished (*Spoiler Alert: they didn't*), but I believe it also served to do 2 additional things.
|
||||
|
||||
1. I believe it was used to guarantee the MOASS by kicking the can down the road so we could align with a date where we are going to have a significant price spike (July 14th) which just so happens to be 35 days from when the June 9th ATM was announced. Feel free take this one with a grain of salt though if you choose.
|
||||
|
||||
2. I believe the short sellers used these 8.5 million shares to short immediately as of the announcements and I don't think they limited themselves to the 8.5 million either when taking liberty to do this. Take this with however much salt you deem appropriate though.
|
||||
|
||||
So, what now?
|
||||
|
||||
I know, you know, we all know by now... we already won. At this point in time we're just going through the motions. But this is what I see. The price is going to spike on July 14th. Can it be a different day? Sure, but I really believe it's the 14th. I think we will see an insane amount of volume and a large price increase on that day. Do I think we'll moon on that date? Nope.
|
||||
|
||||
At least not based on previous patterns. I don't know options well enough to know what will happen as a result of all the Calls/Puts ITM/OTM on July 16th but I imagine that things are going to get crazy. And fast. But moon, I don't think so. At least not yet anyway.
|
||||
|
||||
Now for the party trick.
|
||||
|
||||
Remember when GameStop announced the share offering completion on April 26th? This restarted us on a 21-day schedule. Now, did you pay attention to when the June ATM completed? June 22nd. Lets count 21 trading days from the 22nd and see what we uncover shall we?
|
||||
|
||||
Wait. First of all, I don't do dates. Ask my fiancee. Last date she went on was April 20th and all she got was an ice cream cone, a proposal and a tweet.
|
||||
|
||||
Fine, be that way. I know you can do math anyway so I might as well come out and just say it. 21 trading days from June 22nd lands us on... July 22nd. Day 6. Checkmate.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/54fi3sf5zea71.jpg?width=1024&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=b450f02740061814075955edf8d45d9bc5ab5cdf)
|
||||
|
||||
Self-explanatory I hope
|
||||
|
||||
My advice. For most of you, I believe this is the last '*normal*' weekend of your life. What happened over the last 6 months is going to make you a very wealthy individual. Let go of any hatred, focus on how you're going to make your life and the life of those around you better. We have a world to change.
|
||||
|
||||
Thank you Keith. Thank you Ryan. Thank you GameStop. Thanks to everybody who has been a part of this journey. And with that said... Buckle up.
|
||||
|
||||
TLDR: T+21 exists. I believe it gets reset at the completion of every ATM offering. Our next has been moved up to July 22nd and it lands right as I believe we're going to be sitting on the edge of space as a result of a July 14th spike.
|
132
DD/2021-07-12-COVID-19-The-CARES-Act-and-Undeniable-Greed.md
Normal file
132
DD/2021-07-12-COVID-19-The-CARES-Act-and-Undeniable-Greed.md
Normal file
@ -0,0 +1,132 @@
|
||||
COVID-19, The CARES Act, and Undeniable Greed: The Story of How Wall Street Tried to Bankrupt Businesses with Money Meant to Save Businesses (GME Centric)
|
||||
==========================================================================================================================================================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/Freadom6](https://www.reddit.com/user/Freadom6/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/oiwpxj/covid19_the_cares_act_and_undeniable_greed_the/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
[DD 👨🔬](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22DD%20%F0%9F%91%A8%E2%80%8D%F0%9F%94%AC%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||
Obligatory: This should not be confused with financial advise. I do not offer finanicial advice or services. I am simply pointing out connections I am making through data and deductive reasoning.
|
||||
|
||||
TL;dr Prepare yourself for this next sentence, take a deep breath... How would you feel if I told you investment firms were given LARGE DOLLAR AMOUNTS in Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) "forgivable" loans (the money designed to keep businesses afloat during the pandemic) and the data and timing is indicating they used those funds to try to bankrupt businesses, including GME? Errrrmm... Scoots chair around uncomfortably... Because that is what I am about to tell you through these many words (and some pictures). Roughly $1.5 Billion worth of PPP loans went out to the "Industry" of "Investment Advice" through 12/1/2020.
|
||||
|
||||
["Investment Advice" Industry Loan Data](https://www.federalpay.org/paycheck-protection-program/industries/investment-advice)
|
||||
|
||||
[PPP Loan Forgiveness Requirements](https://www.sba.gov/funding-programs/loans/covid-19-relief-options/paycheck-protection-program/ppp-loan-forgiveness)
|
||||
|
||||
GME & MEME STOCKS HIT BOTTOM 4/2 & 4/3 of 2020
|
||||
|
||||
I originally began this journey into the great cesspool of our market system to compare GME monthly close prices to FINRA's reported margin debt, and while I did find the information I was looking for to show the continued correlation between GME and the current margin debt I slowly began to realize that was no longer the information I was seeking (I will make a margin debt post later this week). Why? Because looking at this information caused me to see that GME hit its bottom, in regard to share price, on April 3rd, 2020 after a 6 day skid beginning on March 27th, 2020 (I'm about to be sinful, avert your eyes if necessary, the movie company hit its bottom on April 2nd, 2020 after a 5 day skid beginning on March 27th, 2020, and Black Berry hit it's low on 4/3/2020 as well). In case this was a whole market slide I checked out some other tickers and found some other stock prices fell slightly, but most remained relatively flat compared to GME and the meme stocks.
|
||||
|
||||
[GME Share Price Movement (and volume) Credit: www.investing.com](https://preview.redd.it/utb3wshkfta71.jpg?width=660&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=abe10fbed10dc955d82fc529a285b47d6aae1d63)
|
||||
|
||||
[Credit: www.investing.com](https://preview.redd.it/d4zs1pnigta71.jpg?width=332&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=e51a5e1389d66b035ebee3fa1d04c814d319fbd0)
|
||||
|
||||
CARES ACT
|
||||
|
||||
So, why is March 27th, 2020, of any importance? Because on that day, "The Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security (CARES) Act (2020)... provided fast and direct economic assistance for American workers, families, small businesses, and industries" was signed into law. [CARES ACT](https://home.treasury.gov/policy-issues/coronavirus/about-the-cares-act)
|
||||
|
||||
So now you are saying to yourself, yeah, but Hedge Funds were ineligible from receiving the funding even though they applied for it in mass amounts so why should I care? Because it appears that many firms investing in the market were QUITE ELIGIBLE as the below information is going to point out, and the data is indicating they used those funds or the anticipation of those funds to hammer GME and meme stocks with short selling from 3/27/20 -- 4/3/20.
|
||||
|
||||
Let us reiterate, the money designed to keep small businesses afloat during the COVID-19 Winter of Discontent was used by firms investing in the stock market. What is worse, the data is showing that some of these firms were using the funds to short GME & meme stocks.
|
||||
|
||||
FOX BUSINESS ARTICLE 4/18/2020
|
||||
|
||||
Now, we'll take a look to a Fox Business article from 4/18/2020, written by: Charlie Gasparino (He is active on social media, but I'm not sure what he's up to these days aside from hating retail investors):
|
||||
|
||||
[Stimulus Intended to Help Coronavirus-Ravaged Small Businesses Instead Rewarding Hedge Funds, Brokerages](https://www.foxbusiness.com/money/stimulus-intended-to-help-coronavirus-ravaged-small-businesses-instead-rewarding-hedge-funds-brokerages)
|
||||
|
||||
*"The bank was receiving applications (for PPP Loans) not just from those barely solvent mom-and-pop businesses like* [*restaurants*](https://www.foxbusiness.com/category/food-drinks)*, salons and family-run* [*factories*](https://www.foxbusiness.com/category/industries) *shuttered amid the nationwide pandemic shutdown that the legislation was supposed to help.*
|
||||
|
||||
*Flowing into his system were applications from businesses no one would consider small, or even barely solvent:* *Midsized hedge funds**,* *brokerage businesses,* *small law firms, all outfits that are making money, much of it through fee income, and many operating remotely almost as if nothing had changed.*
|
||||
|
||||
*How could this be? What the banker discovered was that with less than 500* [*employees*](https://www.foxbusiness.com/category/jobs)*, financial firms and other high-end businesses are technically qualified for low-interest federally guaranteed loans under the broad parameters of the government's Payroll Protection Program (PPP).*
|
||||
|
||||
*And many were sending applications to his bank for the cash, as much as $10 million in the form of a forgivable loan, even if these weren't the types of small businesses Washington was looking to aid.*
|
||||
|
||||
*Even worse, the hedge funds and brokerage businesses were in effect taking money that should be earmarked for businesses that can barely survive in a time of social distancing and quarantines.*
|
||||
|
||||
*These companies have been forced to lay off workers just to make rent, while many banks were prioritizing loans on a first-come, first-served basis and giving priority to their best customers. That means* [*hedge funds*](https://www.foxbusiness.com/category/hedge-funds) *and financial firms with deep pockets and significant banking relationships could be getting the money ahead of the local coffee shop...*
|
||||
|
||||
*"What's going to happen is a class divide we haven't seen in years," the banker told FOX Business. "Remember Occupy Wall Street?" he asked, referring to the sometimes violent protest movement after the 2008 financial collapse and bank bailouts. "These protests will be bigger and more violent because the economic problems are worse and the disparity of the money is favoring Wall Street even more.""*
|
||||
|
||||
Fuck me... I do not think my words are needed in summarizing this article. In case the article is now mysteriously updated I have taken screenshots of the entire article and will post them if necessary. Check the article out for additional details.
|
||||
|
||||
Here is a MarketWatch Article from 4/15/2020 reiterating some main points: ["It's a complete abomination" says Wall Street money manager about hedge funds applying for bailouts from small-business recovery funds](https://www.marketwatch.com/story/its-a-complete-abomination-says-wall-street-money-manager-about-hedge-funds-applying-for-bailouts-from-small-business-recovery-funds-2020-04-14)
|
||||
|
||||
DD on 13F Filings
|
||||
|
||||
Armed with this information I decided to dig into the latest 2021 13F filings through [www.whalewisdom.com](http://www.whalewisdom.com/) and PPP loan recipients from <http://ppprecipients.com/> and found some interesting information. I did not review every company with holdings in GME, this is just a sample of firms with GME positions and some of those that received funding through the CARES Act (PPP Funds):
|
||||
|
||||
2021-Q2 13F/13D/G Filings
|
||||
|
||||
COMPANY 1
|
||||
|
||||
1. Company: Advisornet Financial
|
||||
|
||||
2. Shares: 10,000 (put)
|
||||
|
||||
3. Loan amount: $1 - $2 Million (approved on 4/4/2020)
|
||||
|
||||
COMPANY 2
|
||||
|
||||
1. Company: Creative Planning
|
||||
|
||||
2. Shares: 13,700 (put)
|
||||
|
||||
3. Loan Amount: $350k - $1 Million (approved on 4/13/2020)
|
||||
|
||||
Company 3
|
||||
|
||||
1. Company: Larson Financial Holdings
|
||||
|
||||
2. Shares: 100 (put)
|
||||
|
||||
3. Loan Amount: $2M - $5 Million (approved on 4/7/2020)
|
||||
|
||||
All of these loans were approved in early April, 2020, meaning they were filed even earlier, before the PPP was signed into law on 4/24/2020, and look at how close those dates are to the implementation of the CARES Act and the GME tumble from 3/27/2020 -- 4/3/2020. LOOK HOW CLOSE. AND all these companies have open PUT positions in GME as of the last filing. Betting GME share price will go down. How did they receive funding when other small businesses were exempt and ended up going bankrupt? They directly or indirectly used the money designed to keep the economy and struggling businesses afloat to open put positions in GME? WTF?
|
||||
|
||||
Now, things feel interesting. So, I decided to go even further down this slime covered cavern and look at 13F filings from 2020-Q2 (when GME hit its lowest close price) to see if any funds with actual shares in GME had received any loans and was unsurprised, but genuinely angry. I went "A" - "B" alphabetically through the list and found 3 companies who had shares in GME in 2020-Q2 that still have positions today (I skimmed through and saw plenty more later in the alphabet, I just have a hard time counting letters that high due to my intellectual inconsistencies):
|
||||
|
||||
2020-Q2 13/F
|
||||
|
||||
Company 1
|
||||
|
||||
Advisors Asset Management, Inc
|
||||
|
||||
1. 2020 Q2 Shares: 134,632
|
||||
|
||||
2. Loan Amount: $5M - $10 Million (approved on 4/5/2020)
|
||||
|
||||
3. Current Shares: 33,789 (latest 13/F filing)
|
||||
|
||||
Company 2
|
||||
|
||||
Arkadios Wealth Advisors (Arkadios Capital)
|
||||
|
||||
1. 2020 Q2 Shares: (Sold all shares - 2)
|
||||
|
||||
2. Loan Amount: $150k - $350k (approved on 4/9/2020)
|
||||
|
||||
3. Current Shares: 2210
|
||||
|
||||
Company 3:
|
||||
|
||||
Bridgeway Capital Management
|
||||
|
||||
1. 2020 Q2 Shares: 76,900
|
||||
|
||||
2. Loan Amount: $350k - $1 Million (approved on 4/11/2020)
|
||||
|
||||
3. Current Shares: 40,600
|
||||
|
||||
My speculation is that several firms applied for the PPP funds on or near 3/27/2020, knew the funds were coming, and used those anticipated funds to aggressively short GME and other meme stocks due to the absolute tumble that GME/Meme stocks took from 3/26/2020 -- 4/3/2020 as stated above.
|
||||
|
||||
I'm unsure how to conclude this post aside from: Buy/HODL. The day is coming.
|
||||
|
||||
Tanks fo' reedin'.
|
||||
|
||||
Edit: Thanks to [u/Evorus_Krayde](https://www.reddit.com/u/Evorus_Krayde/) for getting me to [u/Doggoonewild](https://www.reddit.com/u/Doggoonewild/) post: [Citadel Alum Charged with $2.4M PPP Loan Scam](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/mw3jd3/citadel_alum_charged_with_24m_ppp_loan_scam/?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share)
|
316
DD/2021-07-14-A-Castle-of-Glass.md
Normal file
316
DD/2021-07-14-A-Castle-of-Glass.md
Normal file
@ -0,0 +1,316 @@
|
||||
A Castle of Glass - Game On, Anon
|
||||
=================================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/3for100Specials](https://www.reddit.com/user/3for100Specials/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/ok2e0b/a_castle_of_glass_game_on_anon/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
[DD 👨🔬](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22DD%20%F0%9F%91%A8%E2%80%8D%F0%9F%94%AC%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||
***Imperative top of post edit***: For anyone who's *already read this post***,** please go to the bottom and tell me to edit 3 isn't saying what I think it's saying...that info is a bit out of my field so I need help verifying this, but I deduced to the best of my ability...if I'm right in reading that.*.69420D chess has been played by RC and Gamestop..*.
|
||||
|
||||
EDIT 2: Apes, I need your help. There is someone impersonating the 'leavemeanon' account I described throughout my post. The biggest question is *how did this user get approved by the mods, without any evidence provided to back their claim?*
|
||||
|
||||
More details are found below in my edited response to the pinned mod post. this *needs more eyes.* Just as in my post, I do not ask for anyone here to believe anything, *but what they see. Every link is provided for you to assess with your own eyes and come to the most logical conclusion YOU believe.* This needs an explanation.
|
||||
|
||||
Preface:
|
||||
|
||||
The game that is being played is not simply *just* a House of Cards. I'd argue that it's *far larger* *(no heat towards attobit, luv ur material, wouldn't be here without it, truly <3).* The massive entities we call the Big Banks, the Market Makers, the Short dicked Hedge-funds, The Fed, etc, do not simply fall down over the course of a day. No...I'd argue that when they fail..they come crashing down from their Castle of Glass. One that has been forming cracks throughout its structure *since the day it was conceived.* A deteriorating castle which can no longer be unseen, nor..undone. Only, replaced.
|
||||
|
||||
Before we get to the solution though, you must first understand the core aspect of the problem. To highlight this problem, I'll be referring to a post that is an *absolutely essential read* so the second half of this post makes sense. (You'll find it below in a minute)
|
||||
|
||||
I'll break everything down in the simplest way I can so you have an idea of what you're walking into. Just know we're going to be discussing *everything* from the OP, his *name*, ETFs, RRPs, NFTs, and the glorious three words, which may very well tie them all together. *Game on, Anon.*
|
||||
|
||||
So without further ado,
|
||||
|
||||
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
|
||||
|
||||
Part I: The Crux
|
||||
|
||||
This post is a follow-up to my previous. I had attempted to shine some light onto a DD that was flying far too under the radar for the God-Tier level of information contained within it. It was posted roughly a month ago. It was unlike any I had read before it and till this day, continues to be unlike any I have read since. I'm talking thermonuclear level of information here.
|
||||
|
||||
This is the case for a few reasons. I'll outline them below so you have a brief understanding to start. (I'll also be quoting/referencing myself from my other post a few times to save time, so if you see similarities, just know I'm a lazy fuk).
|
||||
|
||||
1. The author: The OP behind this DD went by the name, [u/leavemeanon](https://www.reddit.com/u/leavemeanon/). Shortly after dropping this thermonuclear analysis on *HOW* the shares have been suppressed and *WHERE* they are most likely located. He vanished, but unlike the Avatar's flake ass, his job was done.
|
||||
|
||||
2. The Job: *exposing the primary methods of fuckery utilized by the short gang, the Big Banks, and even the Fed...down to the BONE.* The depth of analysis here is *still* astounding, but that's not even the kicker..its the fact he drops a God tier DD and makes a claim like this:
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/b258dyt2y5b71.png?width=704&format=png&auto=webp&s=6ba0fddb29ca59535ad5bca765ddbbf4094b4643)
|
||||
|
||||
[u/leavemeanon](https://www.reddit.com/u/leavemeanon/)'s DD: <https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nt8ot8/rip_uleavemeanon_where_are_the_shares_part_1/?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share>
|
||||
|
||||
The profundity of the statement in yellow is something that you will *only understand if you read his post.* The likely realization you'll come to once you do is that there is absolutely no way that someone making *this claim*, drops a DD with this kind of analysis, then just goes off and deletes his account.
|
||||
|
||||
Self quote: "When asking myself, why tf would someone go this far into a DD analysis and delete their account shortly after? Along with going by the name [u/leavemeanon](https://www.reddit.com/u/leavemeanon/), I found myself coming to the same conclusion each time:
|
||||
|
||||
*This. is. what. this. guy. does. He might as well be an unofficial whistle-blower who wanted no traces back to him, bc the info contained in his DD is PRECISELY what is occurring right now."*
|
||||
|
||||
I wrote this statement on my previous DD just over a month ago. I want you guys to pay special attention to that last sentence because if you read through that post, you'll realize one more thing.
|
||||
|
||||
It's not only *still* dead on, but becoming even MORE relevant in relation to the events it had described a whole-ass *month back.*
|
||||
|
||||
Now if you haven't read the post for some dingle reason..I'll provide you OP's ELI5 to give a snippet of the problem, b/c if we do not understand the *problem,* then the *solution* will not make sense.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/31f2e78rw5b71.png?width=701&format=png&auto=webp&s=2d74be4b534839192341f10a0fb1e770ff647ddb)
|
||||
|
||||
So where does the problem truly lie? Based on OP's post. It's none other, than the fuckin ETFs. OP explains the inner workings of the ETFs in a way I've never seen anyone do before. He even links this video for us real special apes, to understand.
|
||||
|
||||
<https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iX7fOx5G40A&t=323s>
|
||||
|
||||
So assuming you now understand the problem, here's an idea of the severity, as disclosed within part 3 of OP's post. Spoiler alert,
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/jcke95lsw5b71.png?width=707&format=png&auto=webp&s=9d961d2f3a843e270ecc6747f7703dcd87fc1ca2)
|
||||
|
||||
We're not done yet, remember..only once you understand the *full extent of the problem, will the solution make sense.* So to add even more juice to the flame, here's a video by Charlie Vid's, which he released on July 10th. It shows how all those RRPs...you know..those multi-fuckin billion dollar funds being moved around on a daily basis...are likely piled *right into the fuckin E T F's.*
|
||||
|
||||
<https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NhS5FgfO6Jg>
|
||||
|
||||
This video has only stood to further validate the point [u/leavemeanon](https://www.reddit.com/u/leavemeanon/) made a whole ass month back. The information he's discussing is still pretty novel and needs more eyes, but the connection he makes in that video is hard to argue against. Even if you don't fully grasp wtf that shit means, and let's be honest, most of us still don't b/c RRPs are the most absurdly convoluted thing on this planet. Nonetheless, the big picture is pretty evident. From this video, it seems almost entirely plausible that these transactions between the Fed and the other end of the parties involved (the Big Banks) are being done illegally at historic levels, to *keep the entire market from collapsing.*
|
||||
|
||||
To provide a better idea of what *may* be going on here, I'm going to refer to someone who seems to have a far clearer grasp on these transactions than myself. I'm fine with speculating on most things but these RRPs though, I'm way too smooth-brained for that and the last thing I need is to be throwing a 69th definition of what they mean into the mix.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/hpucxdxtw5b71.png?width=1121&format=png&auto=webp&s=79fbcdd82cae68bad05dffec310c6f841199ee52)
|
||||
|
||||
This may also explain why most of the rules released in relation to the derivatives market seem to have only slowed down recent events, but not much more. I'm saying this because the way some of those rules were written, they sounded like they would dice up the short's plan of approach completely. Though there does *seem* to be a clear impact on how GME has been trading since most of the rules were implemented, *they haven't ended the game.* To me, this likely means that the greatest source of fuckery held by Shortgang and Co. lies elsewhere.
|
||||
|
||||
The Married-puts, the dark pools, or whatever else method of manipulation these limp-dick cum-dumpsters have up their sleeves may be *some* of the better-known gears behind their scheme, but I'm willing to be *it's the ETFs, which are the true source of their Fuckery.* These transactions described in the video above, and further theorized upon by the comment attached, are occurring *through the entire ETF market.*
|
||||
|
||||
Part II - The Connection
|
||||
|
||||
Now that you understand the problem, we are *almost* cleared to move onto the solution. Before going further, I need to provide some context here. My previous post, as mentioned earlier, was intended for a single purpose: Shedding light on [u/leavemeanon](https://www.reddit.com/u/leavemeanon/)'s DD. Shortly after dropping it though, I received a comment and message from a few users who sent me down one hell of a rabbit hole. As in that post, I was making some tin-foil hat connections to the meaning behind [u/leavemeanon](https://www.reddit.com/u/leavemeanon/)'s username. Though this part may not necessarily even be linked, it's important I mention it because had it not happened, I would not have discovered what I believe to be the *solution*.
|
||||
|
||||
Moving forward from here, we're going to be treading over some speculative waters and more than likely, be testing that 4-hour erection window before you need to call your doctor. They might have to raise the bar on that one if the following of what I've found is *even remotely correct.*
|
||||
|
||||
This part may sound absurd at first, but I only ask you to trust me until you reach part 3. For most of part 2, I'm explaining because I feel it important to clarify *how I came to my conclusions.* My thoughts in this section don't necessarily *have* to be true, and I wouldn't be surprised to find out if this ends up being the case in the future.
|
||||
|
||||
That being said, *their relevance in this DD is that of an intermediate*. They are what helped me discover what I believe to be the *solution for the problem described above.*
|
||||
|
||||
My speculative journey would lead me down an immense rabbit hole roughly a month ago. It would begin with a fascination with Anon's DD but soon evolved to also include the method of its deployment (OP deleting his account shortly after dropping it), the technical but extremely concise language utilized, and the structure of its writing, as I began to ponder the *meaning behind OP's name*.
|
||||
|
||||
The now-deleted user, who went by the name of 'leavemeanon" would ring a few bells for another ape, that would comment the following on my post:
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/bk2rbtcvw5b71.png?width=660&format=png&auto=webp&s=cd3afb645f019a42f0d0ae6630c8501cdab70d45)
|
||||
|
||||
It was at this point that I began to speculate whether there was a connection between Anon's name and the phrase above found on Gamestop's NFT website. Now I cannot state that there is a direct relation between the two, but I find it necessary to shed light on the connection I theorized (with the help of some amazing apes), regarding what *I believed it to be.*
|
||||
|
||||
what if, the now-deleted OP's name was in reference to more than just 'leave me anonymous'? What if...OP's name was an attempt to send us a message about the material covered in his post in regard to the ETF market?
|
||||
|
||||
Here is the likely-to-be unlikely link: the word Anon is defined as "soon, shortly". OP went by the name LeaveMeAnon. I.e leave me '*soon, shortly'.* So naturally, I went full tin-foil mode and chased the idea further down the hole. I made the following assumption in doing so, what if OP was telling us,
|
||||
|
||||
"the material I'm covering, the current ETF market as we know it, is to be *left behind soon/shortly, and let me explain why"*
|
||||
|
||||
Whereas 'Game on, Anon', a phrase located throughout Gamestop's NFT website, if used under the same pretense, could refer to *"Game on, Soon/shortly".*
|
||||
|
||||
So the link that would bring me to the absurdly coincidental connection that may, or may not have been fueled by an unhealthy amount of confirmation bias at the time:
|
||||
|
||||
Anon's post is created with knowledge equitable to damn near Burry himself, with the sole purpose of exposing where the *true problem lies* in the GME saga. He mentions married-puts, high-frequency trading, and ETFs in-depth to show this. Yet, it is the latter most issue that gets the largest emphasis placed on it. Why do I believe that?
|
||||
|
||||
Primarily because the more I looked into this situation, the more I began to see that the institutions involved on the short side of GME aren't the Castle of glass, they simply *live in it*. The Castle itself...is the entire *ETF market.* A structure which throughout and within it have become increasingly prevalent by the passing of each day. They are quite literally, *a legal method of naked shorting*.
|
||||
|
||||
Where Anon takes the time to reveal the problem, it's Gamestop, the company itself, that has quite literally been showing us the *solution to this problem.* All of which it has been doing through its *actions, not its words.*
|
||||
|
||||
Part III - The Solution
|
||||
|
||||
If you made it this far, just know I'm proud :')
|
||||
|
||||
Part II is certainly the most tin-foil section in this post, but as you proceed through part III, you'll soon realize why I found it necessary to provide all that information. This is certainly my favorite part. Stick through to the end and you'll see why we save the best, for last.
|
||||
|
||||
Moving forward right where we left off - If you go onto that same NFT website, copy the link which is posted on their NFT page, paste it into google, and open the first tab from the etherscan website and click on the 'contracts tab', guess what you'll find there...
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/dw2amyuww5b71.png?width=700&format=png&auto=webp&s=71586f7708fd74a1dc32d2d77bee979d47d8a668)
|
||||
|
||||
Still, think it's a simple coincidence? It's alright, I mean "it's not it actually means anything...*" right Anakin?".....*zooms in closer*....." right..?**
|
||||
|
||||
Lol don't actually try to zoom in, there isn't shit there if you do that. But... third time's a charm, right? what if there's more to that phrase than just some random ass meaning?
|
||||
|
||||
To find out, I did some more digging around that term after finding the above which would lead me to find the following tweet:
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/3g9t4kxxw5b71.png?width=553&format=png&auto=webp&s=2e69a9e45aaab0e47149e9ef8d48a895e4a069df)
|
||||
|
||||
https://acceleratedcapital.substack.com/p/the-metaverse-index-
|
||||
|
||||
That phrase...look familiar? Yeah...we're about to enter solution territory...and for you "I only believe after a 4th, 5th, 6th coincidence" apes, don't worry. I'll get there anon ;)
|
||||
|
||||
The link above will take you directly to the page they've shown. Upon finding this tweet, I looked into what exactly these guys were talking about. After reading in-depth about what exactly this 'Metaverse' is, as well as viewing some of the other links they have posted on their website, you'll find information about its relation to NFTs, *Blackrock*, and something known as the Index Cooperative.
|
||||
|
||||
Now, why exactly are these things all noteworthy? Well, if you don't live under a rock and are a certified retarde like yours truly, you'll remember some hype going around with Gamestops NFT plans. But before we get to that, let's put this together in a cascading manner so you fully grasp what we're looking at here.
|
||||
|
||||
What is the *Metaverse* exactly?
|
||||
|
||||
- Per Wikipedia: "*The Metaverse is a collective, virtual shared space, created by the convergence of virtually enhanced physical reality and physically persistent virtual space, including the sum of all virtual worlds, augmented reality, and the internet"*
|
||||
|
||||
- It's further described as a basket of 15 tokens that serve the purpose of capturing entertainment trends, sports, and business shifting to virtual reality.
|
||||
|
||||
- The next absolutely fascinating find in regard to the Metaverse index is one that requires you to zoom out and view the bigger picture. By doing so, you'll begin to understand *what it's trying to change*. An article that goes extremely in-depth on it would provide this insight:
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/0evviqy7x5b71.png?width=706&format=png&auto=webp&s=c42c57f41dbd2a47f856799c5b1fbca70e79b9a2)
|
||||
|
||||
https://www.masterthemeta.com/business-breakdowns/into-the-void
|
||||
|
||||
This article above (absolutely excellent read btw) is what links our topic of focus. N F Ts. Notice the black-highlighted sections, primarily *the bottom one.*
|
||||
|
||||
This information takes us back to Accelerated Capitals website. Here we find a bit more relative information to *virtual ownership via NFTs, gaming,* *virtual reality, and entertainment"*, as well as the inclusion criteria it has before an NFT can be issued under it.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/zqyi588bx5b71.png?width=519&format=png&auto=webp&s=5e30ec3cb2e5d9cfe689bf66d55b119a1c0741e6)
|
||||
|
||||
https://acceleratedcapital.substack.com/p/the-metaverse-index-
|
||||
|
||||
I highlighted the 3 month period because if I remember correctly...there's a company out there that has something to do with gaming, which was supposed to go bankrupt..but didn't..and similarly *issued an NFT token a few months back...what the date on that?* 4/07, now I'm not the best at math but roughly 3 months since then would be...😎 (s/o [u/LordoftheEyez](https://www.reddit.com/u/LordoftheEyez/) for the help on clarifying the timeframe!)
|
||||
|
||||
But let's get a bit more specific, wtf *is the Metaverse Index really?*
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/zzodtd4ex5b71.png?width=560&format=png&auto=webp&s=7751bd534f1a59ef5852a709c93fe7e153864077)
|
||||
|
||||
Oh boy, well now we're getting somewhere. After looking into what exactly the Metaverse index was, I found myself directed towards something called the *Index Cooperative (Coop Index).* Think of this thing as the very top of the cascade, it contains *other blockchain-based indices within it, such as the Metaverse Index.* Upon visiting The Index Coop website, you get a pretty baseline idea of what it is to better explain:
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/k3lb9ebfx5b71.png?width=670&format=png&auto=webp&s=72448ae5aad8c7dfa1ec6d27ee55884c8db2231e)
|
||||
|
||||
Just a refresher on the cascade of terms here as I explained them a bit out of order, from the highest --> lowest level of priority. (also priority here isn't me saying least is worst lol, it's simply in relation to where they actually fall relative to one another)
|
||||
|
||||
Index Cooperative > Metaverse, etc > NFTs
|
||||
|
||||
Because this cascade functions *entirely separate from the modern-day stock market which includes modern-day ETFs as we know them, they play by COMPLETELY different rules.*
|
||||
|
||||
- It'd be an absolute shame if a company that was *shorted to high-hell...decided to jump ship and hop into this thermonuclear fueled fuckin rocket,* and light up all the dipshits who decided to bet against it..
|
||||
|
||||
- *A shame for those dipshits, that is.* Fkn dingles lmayo..alright back to semi-serious mode...
|
||||
|
||||
Going forward, I did some deep dives through other Reddit pages to learn more about this thing, and to my surprise, I got a damn good explanation of *what EXACTLY is the Index Coop attempting to become. It is as follows,*
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/18rghmqgx5b71.png?width=351&format=png&auto=webp&s=d86df95bc179c813eab794690b4e909f681427a2)
|
||||
|
||||
"OVERVIEW OF INDEX"
|
||||
|
||||
"[Index Cooperative](https://www.indexcoop.com/) is a DeFi project that's going after the multi-trillion-dollar [ETF](<https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Exchange-traded_fund#:~:text=An%20exchange%2Dtraded%20fund%20(ETF,the%20day%20on%20stock%20exchanges)> (exchange-traded fund) market. At its simplest, an ETF is like a basket of assets (be it stocks, bonds, commodities, or crypto) that can be traded in a group. Companies like [Blackrock (under its subsidiary iShare) and Vanguard each have over a trillion dollars](https://www.etftrends.com/10-biggest-etf-issuers-of-2019-by-market-capitalization/) under management in the form of ETFs. ETFs have been so popular, that people like [Michael Burry ](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Michael_Burry)(of [*The Big Short* ](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Big_Short_(film))) have called it a "[passive investment bubble](https://www.etfstrategy.com/passive-investing-a-bubble-says-big-short-investor-michael-burry-10449/)"."
|
||||
|
||||
Two things should stick out to you off the bat:
|
||||
|
||||
1. "Own the *Blackrock* of DeFi" while stating *Ethereum ETFs as being a business with a multi-trillion dollar upside.*
|
||||
|
||||
2. *"Index Cooperative* *is a DeFi project that's going AFTER the Muti-trillion ETF market"*
|
||||
|
||||
Putting these two together took a minute, I found myself asking, how tf Blackrock was thrown into the loop? so I started scavenging through a few more articles through Accelerated Capitals page and found this:
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/hm2475wjx5b71.png?width=523&format=png&auto=webp&s=1a6774dc5f83719f90e5106767f6a53a222267a3)
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/qx2k5askx5b71.png?width=568&format=png&auto=webp&s=1725e3f6de6d82378226d7df2c632af86c79c461)
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/y8sq7mhlx5b71.png?width=596&format=png&auto=webp&s=e702330d584be66568d423ac51d2b7ba187816a3)
|
||||
|
||||
TA:DR/conclusion:
|
||||
|
||||
Let's bring all this together now, because if you've made it this far, then you're likely still taking all this in. I know, it's a lot to take in and I also understand that some of my conclusions are speculative. In the end, this is truly all we can do until the elephant in the room gets so big, that it is no longer possible to ignore or deny it. For this reason, I ask each and every one of my fellow apes to dig into every piece of information I've provided above and reason these things out for themselves. Follow the evidence, question the data, question the logic, and deduce the flaws. Only then can you truly justify to yourself that the investment you've made in this stock, was done so out of confidence, and genuine Due-Diligence.
|
||||
|
||||
We began by introducing the problem, because, like any other problem you wish to solve, you must first understand the problem. The more complex and/or convoluted that problem is, oftentimes the longer it can take to ascertain the necessary information in *properly* learning about it. This is something we covered in part I, in which section I introduced you to the elephant in the room, the ETF market, or as I like to call it, The *Glass Castle.*
|
||||
|
||||
In part II, I provided insight into what I like to think of as the *intermediate,* between the problem and the *solution.* Though I do not have high expectations for those connections to be outright true, they did not need to be. Their purpose was served the moment they led me to find everything I wrote about in part III.
|
||||
|
||||
Within this final part, I described to you *the solution*. IF I'm right in my thought process here, THEN the actions being taken by RC and Gamestop are quite literally, *pointing in a single direction*.
|
||||
|
||||
Changing the game and giving the *power back to the players* isn't just about changing the company, no...It's about shifting the ENTIRE damn landscape of how the modern-day economy functions. This change, the NFT initiative currently being taken by GME is with damn near certainty moving towards one goal..before we describe that goal, let me provide one last refresher, but this time with analogy's so there is not a single ape left behind.
|
||||
|
||||
1. At the very top, you have the largest basket: the Index Cooperative (think of this as the new blockchain stock market)
|
||||
|
||||
2. Within this large basket, you have multiple medium-sized baskets: The Metaverse Index, Defi-Pulse index, etc. (Think of this like the SP.Y)
|
||||
|
||||
3. And within individual *medium-sized* baskets, you've got NFT's (think a jet-fueled gaming company ran by a fuckin 69D chess master)
|
||||
|
||||
Imagine an economy where there is no longer a middle man, by which I mean the modern-day banking system as we know it. Ask yourself, if you had the ability to choose a completely different system, where the *power of decision-making and investing potential lies in your hands, and not in that of some middle-man who would rather use it for his own personal benefit at the cost of YOUR losses, would you use it?*
|
||||
|
||||
Quite *likely*, I'd say. Unless you enjoy getting hoed by greedy scumbags, but you probably wouldn't have made it this far in this post had that been the case. This leaves us to the ultimate question, *what exactly is RC doing?*
|
||||
|
||||
Based on everything I've shown you, He's planning on cutting out the middle-man. These modern-day Big Banks and pretty much every other financial institution from the SEC to the Fed have been laying in bed together for decades. In doing so, they thrived within their castle while the rest of humanity continued to struggle, often unable to make even our most *basic* ends meet.
|
||||
|
||||
Yet in the end, it was *this* greed that blinded them. *This* greed allowed their own naivety to consume them. Most importantly, it was their unending hunger for power and wealth that created a facade so great, that they could no longer see that karma isn't a bitch. Karma is a fuckin mirror. This is the true cost of their "opportunity".
|
||||
|
||||
And those cracks? Each day that passes, they spread further and deeper. Its flaws can no longer be unseen, nor can they be *undone.*
|
||||
|
||||
Only, replaced.
|
||||
|
||||
I'd argue the game isn't *about* to change...but rather,
|
||||
|
||||
I'd argue, it already has.
|
||||
|
||||
P.S Larry Cheng, GME board member, and Matt Finestone, Blockchain guy.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/he11uoanx5b71.png?width=719&format=png&auto=webp&s=71ae4b3ff60cee1aeac8db24f58c98eacd22084d)
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/v7hws3tnx5b71.png?width=720&format=png&auto=webp&s=d0e83ff0f441722f5011e477419d82d2c13ddb4e)
|
||||
|
||||
None of this is financial advice, I repeat, I still do not know how to walk on all two's. Thank you for your time.
|
||||
|
||||
EDIT: There's a pretty fancy pants wrinkly-brained ape down in the comments who did a solid job of providing a description of the kind of changes I had envisioned while writing this DD. I didn't get around to including most of the things he's stating, but they are certainly on the same track of thought process. So, it's only right I add his comment for all apes to see. I've described the process, this is what the results, I believe, will look like,
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/ptyywbopx5b71.png?width=739&format=png&auto=webp&s=d9b3fe851f9f02a4b6e0fc803430a2ee68f697de)
|
||||
|
||||
EDIT 2: This post was partly inspired by this ape, I had shared my previous DD onto the post containing the video which tied the RRPs to the ETFs. Upon further conversing with this ape last night, he provided me with, what seems to be a hint and I believe, this is what he's getting at. I'm at my 20 image count but this was his statement:
|
||||
|
||||
"I'll drop this Easter egg on you."
|
||||
|
||||
"Simplicity. Complexity is meant to hide complexity in the markets. Also meant to distance simplicity in relationships. The most complex situations are usually handed over a simple old fashion between friends...or foes. Game on Anon"
|
||||
|
||||
My response, after pondering these words:
|
||||
|
||||
"simplicity...simplicity in a complex situation, is leaving the complex situation entirely. Their system and all of its cracks, cannot be unseen, nor undone. To replace a system that is so evidently flawed with its complexities requires a simple solution*, leaving it behind entirely, and creating something new.*
|
||||
|
||||
"This is my take on your wise words. Game on Anon"
|
||||
|
||||
TIT SLAPPIN EDIT 3: Holy fucking. shit. Apes, I need all eyes on this.
|
||||
|
||||
Please correct me if I'm wrong as this is out of my field.....but tell me this doesn't fuckin read the way *I think it reads...*
|
||||
|
||||
GME PROSPECTUS SUPPLEMENT FILING TO THE SEC, JUNE 9TH, 2021 - top of page 16
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/opdli35tx5b71.png?width=1860&format=png&auto=webp&s=d2e6624d4f5c3c3d7249c04e8cb62ffcefe81dca)
|
||||
|
||||
Edit 4: Alright apes, I'm just getting around to updating this for inclusion of insight from an ape who is far more versed into this type of language than yours truly. The portion you see below was a conversation I had with this very kind mod from another sub, as I had to post this in other locations due to the initial difficulty of getting it onto the 'Stonk. This portion has actually been included in the other posts but since I submitted this version before having the conversation below, and it was pushed forward by the mods on superstonk at a later time, it didn't incorporate this conversation at that time. Hence, why I've provided this edit now. It's been a long 24 hours fighting the good fight in an attempt to get people on this sub to see this material, and though a success, I had to rest up so my body could hodl. That's the context, now the insight.
|
||||
|
||||
The breakdown provided by Theta here *seems to be* *far more conclusive in regard to what all that suit talk is truly stating***. Read it a few times over if you have to, but if logic is our basis, then this does make sense until unless we find out otherwise.** Additionally, this ape was able to look around and find some backing for his statement as well! So truly bravo to you sir, know that your assistance in this is greatly appreciated [u/Theta-Voidance](https://www.reddit.com/u/Theta-Voidance/).
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/8yhyuh2u98b71.png?width=679&format=png&auto=webp&s=9e0343d2e0dc5f9e18b9e9c9401631a6023884f0)
|
||||
|
||||
Naturally, where one perspective is correct in deducing the suit-speak, another deduction remains ape-speak. So I crossed off my initial assessment now that we've been provided some cleaner insight, but you'll still find it below for your apely pleasures.
|
||||
|
||||
~~I've read this literally 20 times over...I've even read the last two damn pages 20 times over to make sure what it's leading up to is actually~~ ~~*what I think it is...*~~
|
||||
|
||||
~~I've highlighted it in three different colors to make the transition of statements easier to read, or harder lol idk:~~
|
||||
|
||||
1. ~~Yellow -~~ ~~*if the DTC fails to do its job, and they are not*~~ ~~*effectively replaced within a 90-day allotted period by a succeeding depository...*~~
|
||||
|
||||
2. ~~Green -~~ ~~*we will issue*~~ ~~*a different type of security different than the type already in the market, but still somewhat similar to it..*~~
|
||||
|
||||
3. ~~Blue -~~ ~~*But also, one more thing you fucboys...at any given point in time, and based on our absolute SOLE discretion..*~~
|
||||
|
||||
4. ~~*RED - We may decide to just say fuck it, and issue our OWN security which is COMPLETELY*~~ ~~*SEPARATE*~~ ~~from the type already IN the market, AND the same condition apply under the circumstance we swapped them earlier for the semi-similar securities~~ ~~(referenced in the green highlight),~~ ~~*in case you try and pull a fast one with those too...*~~
|
||||
|
||||
S/o to [u/Apprehensive-Use-703](https://www.reddit.com/u/Apprehensive-Use-703/) bringing this to my attention...smart ass fkn apes out there man..
|
||||
|
||||
Guys....I need some serious wrinkles on this....this is not the shit that I do lol, so someone confirm to me that I'm not geekin and that's *not how that fuckin reads.....because it sounds like Gamestop has literally planned for the TRANSITION step to the shit I've covered in this post.*
|
||||
|
||||
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
|
||||
|
||||
Edit 5: Upon discovery of a tweet dating back to April by a sharp-sighted ape in the comments, we may have some further connection to the *Metaverse and Gamestop's NFT website motto:*
|
||||
|
||||
"Here's the link provided by [u/WholesomeLowlife](https://www.reddit.com/u/WholesomeLowlife/)
|
||||
|
||||
<https://mobile.twitter.com/indexcoop/status/1379872194172317696>
|
||||
|
||||
Where have I seen *players, creators, collectors before?* <https://nft.gamestop.com/>"
|
||||
|
||||
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
|
||||
|
||||
And another addition from an Ape that brought some more fascinating insight to me earlier as well, This is in respect to the initial NFT token issued by Gamestop a few months back, here's his findings:
|
||||
|
||||
"Killer DD! So we know the ERC-721 is the 1 GME coin. The Metaverse uses ERC-20 tokens from my understanding. If you look in the wallet that has the 1 ERC-721, it also has 420.69 of the ERC-20. <https://etherscan.io/address/0x10b16eede03cf73cbf44e4bfffa3e6bff36f1fad#comments>
|
||||
|
||||
I remember initially talking was a perceived scam but idk if that's the case. I think you're on to something. There is also a wallet that has process over 10k transactions of the ERC-20 coin but idk if that means anything. Hope you see this. If not, I'll try a message" - [u/kevykev89](https://www.reddit.com/u/kevykev89/)
|
||||
|
||||
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
|
||||
|
||||
These findings are certainly fascinating, to say the least..so I ask you, how much do *you* believe in coincidences? I encourage each and every one of you to ponder upon these relations and come to your own conclusions which make the most sense to *you***. I know what I believe, and I stand by my thoughts on those things. All I can hope for is that you find the same hope that I may have. Sometimes, speculations and hypotheticals are just that, but sometimes,** *there's more to them, than may at first, meet the eyes.*
|
||||
|
||||
*Game On, Anon.* 💎
|
||||
|
||||
*Power to the Players 🚀*
|
@ -0,0 +1,136 @@
|
||||
Delta/Gamma Neutral Update - Hold strong!
|
||||
=========================================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/yelyah2](https://www.reddit.com/user/yelyah2/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/og9pcv/deltagamma_neutral_update_hold_strong/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
[DD 👨🔬](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22DD%20%F0%9F%91%A8%E2%80%8D%F0%9F%94%AC%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||
TLDR: This is just a quick update for the Delta Neutral/Gamma Neutral/Gamma Maximum indicators. The DN is currently ~$157, which isn't ideal for red days like we've been having, but GME always bounces back if it does drop. Hold strong!
|
||||
|
||||
*Background*
|
||||
|
||||
My work is built on the idea that the market is largely unpredictable, but one particular kind of behavior is certain - hedgies gonna hedge. It's written into their algorithms. Specifically, they like to delta hedge and gamma hedge. This work tries to profit on this one particular type of buying/selling behavior.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/sk94lr67d0a71.png?width=300&format=png&auto=webp&s=2d69b060bbd94a962f23985309109832a9031764)
|
||||
|
||||
Hedgies Hedgin'
|
||||
|
||||
In general, all stock indicators boil down to two things - reversion to the mean and momentum. Every trader wants to accurately predict these two forces better than other guy, and if you use different indicators than the other guy, that an give you an 'alpha' in trading if it's a better predictor.
|
||||
|
||||
I make a lot of different indicators, but the two primary ones are the Delta Neutral and Gamma Neutral:
|
||||
|
||||
- Delta Neutral (DN) - This helps identify reversion to the mean, and represents the underlying price that would create a total market delta of 0 across all GME options (all expiration dates) for a given date. In general, it acts like a floor to the underlying price, but if the price drops below the delta neutral, then it tends to shoot back up above that line.
|
||||
|
||||
- This is generally how I trade my model. I watch for stocks that drop below the DN, and buy them, expecting for traders to identify that the stock is underpriced and will revert back to a higher level.
|
||||
|
||||
- Gamma Neutral (GN) and Gamma Maximum (GM) - This helps identify momentum. The GN represents the underlying price that would create a total market gamma of 0 across all GME options (all expiration dates) for a given date, whereas the GM represents the underlying price that would create the maximum gamma across the market.
|
||||
|
||||
- In general, a sudden increase in gamma indicates a sharp upward in momentum that continues until that gamma drops.
|
||||
|
||||
- The GM seems to act like a ceiling, but fun things happen when the underlying crossing that threshold!
|
||||
|
||||
This is my own personal 'alpha' that I developed for my own trading purposes, and am sharing with this community because it's given me back so much. This is not financial advice. I'm just a mathematician that likes to play with options data, and I am not a professional trader.
|
||||
|
||||
There is a detailed data dictionary, methodology and assumptions section at the bottom that gives my method in full detail.
|
||||
|
||||
*Delta/Gamma Neutral Graph*
|
||||
|
||||
Here's the graph you're used to seeing, and it includes the Close Price (green), delta neutral (blue), gamma neutral (orange) and gamma maximum (red), on a log-based 10 scale so you can see those spikes in all their glory.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/c01cdyzfb0a71.png?width=910&format=png&auto=webp&s=80f628b1d49d920ef5ceaf49911ea5678c267e52)
|
||||
|
||||
A few things that happened since I last posted:
|
||||
|
||||
- I've been working hard on updates to my model and creating new indicators that I hope to share soon. I know I keep saying that, but research takes time. There are a lot of twists/turns/unexpected results. May post what I have so far soon, and see if the group has any ideas to explain what I'm seeing.
|
||||
|
||||
- I refined my IV methodology, which caused the DN optimization to break during the January squeeze (not surprising), but that's why you see it crash out in January. I'm working on identifying why that's happening.
|
||||
|
||||
- The delta neutral floor is currently holding steady around $157, which obviously isn't ideal during these red days, but just know that GME always bounces back if it does drop.
|
||||
|
||||
- GME likes to hang out between 10% and 30% higher than the delta neutral price if nothing unusual happens, which gives a range of $172 - $204 for the underlying.
|
||||
|
||||
- GME's high is 214% higher than the DN back on 1/27, so certainly able to break higher, but it will see resistance to break higher.
|
||||
|
||||
- No significant action with the GN since 6/8
|
||||
|
||||
- The GM is currently at $247, indicating fun things COULD happen if we can bounce over that point.
|
||||
|
||||
*Methodology and Assumptions*
|
||||
|
||||
Delta Neutral
|
||||
|
||||
The Delta Neutral price that creates a total market delta of 0 across all GME options (all expiration dates) for a given date. It can also be though of as the intersection of a supply/demand curve for hedged stocks. See the "Methodology and Assumptions" section for full detail on how I develop this indicator.
|
||||
|
||||
Notes below for general options on how the delta neutral interacts with the underlying price:
|
||||
|
||||
- There is a large influx of call option purchases, because:
|
||||
|
||||
- The call prices get less expensive as the underlying price approaches the delta neutral
|
||||
|
||||
- Stock prices usually rebound/revert back to the mean after large crashes, so the price often rebounds anyways.
|
||||
|
||||
- With the large influx of call volume, market makers have to start buying stocks to delta hedge, which turns the price back around and creates an upward trajectory.
|
||||
|
||||
- Important note that hedgies often hedge with derivatives instead of buying stocks, so there isn't a 1-to-1 relationship between the delta and shares bought/sold by hedge funds.
|
||||
|
||||
- Historically, you can see that GME often bounces off the delta neutral prices during drops. The exception is the February drop. When the underlying goes below the delta neutral price, a lot of pressure builds up that results in a significant increase when that pressure is released.
|
||||
|
||||
- Note this is the primary way that I trade my model. I made a scanner that looks for equities that fall below the delta neutral.
|
||||
|
||||
Gamma Neutral
|
||||
|
||||
The Gamma Neutral price that creates a total market gamma of 0 across all GME options (all expiration dates) for a given date. See the "Methodology and Assumptions" section for full detail on how I develop this indicator.
|
||||
|
||||
General notes below for observations on how this indicator behaves:
|
||||
|
||||
- It acts like support/resistance between the delta neutral and the underlying, and typically bounces around between the two prices for most symbols (like we have seen with GME since April).
|
||||
|
||||
- It also goes crazy in periods of high volatility, as you can see by the very higher spikes.
|
||||
|
||||
- A gamma spike indicates the presence of POTENTAILLY slippery option market conditions, which COULD lead to a gamma squeeze. There were certainly spikes present back in January, but we had a few one-day false starts this last month.
|
||||
|
||||
- They are often triggered by high price movement in a day, which can lead to continue high growth if underlying volume supports it.
|
||||
|
||||
- Gamma spikes can also be triggered by unusual options purchases during the day. These are the one ones to find, because you can often catch the high increase waves before they actually start.
|
||||
|
||||
- If I'm trading this indicator, I often either wait for a gamma spike to continue for 2 days in a row and supported by increased volume. Otherwise, I invest straight away if I find a gamma spike just based on options movement (i.e. no significant underlying increase yet).
|
||||
|
||||
I write my own algorithms to produce the results above. The following lists some key methodology and assumptions I use:
|
||||
|
||||
- I rely on daily options and stock summaries produced by [www.historicaloptionsdata.com](http://www.historicaloptionsdata.com/)
|
||||
|
||||
- For the Implied Volatility (IV), I use the following method:
|
||||
|
||||
- Calculate the raw IV of the mid-point between bid/ask price at close.
|
||||
|
||||
- Calculate a "blend" IV, which represents the IV where the call/put parity holds, i.e. where call delta -- put delta = 1, using the same IV.
|
||||
|
||||
- Smooth the mid-point call/put and blend IV using a gaussian smoothing algorithm with a 20-strike window.
|
||||
|
||||
- Apply the smoothed call/put relativities to the smoothed blended IV curve
|
||||
|
||||
- Fill any missing values with a linear interpolation of the neighboring strikes.
|
||||
|
||||
- Using the final call/put IV estimates described above, I calculate my own Greeks. I like this source if you're interested in the formulas: <https://www.macroption.com/option-greeks-excel>
|
||||
|
||||
- For the total market delta and total market gamma, I rely on the OI x delta and OI x gamma for each strike price.
|
||||
|
||||
- Note that the delta of a call is usually equal to (1 - put delta), so not adjustment is needed to the delta signs when calculating the total market delta.
|
||||
|
||||
- However, the call/put gammas are both positive based on the B-S calculation. If you're calculating the total gamma for a portfolio, or the total market, you have to add the call gamma and subtract the put gamma.
|
||||
|
||||
- To estimate the delta neutral and the gamma neutral, I have an algorithm that relies on the optimization toolbox in Matlab to identify an underlying price that achieve a total market delta and a total market gamma.
|
||||
|
||||
- Note that the IV would change with higher/lower prices for the delta/gamma neutral and the sensitivity tests, but the impact is not significant enough to make a meaningful difference and takes significant processing time to apply the IV curves. However, it is an important simplifying assumption to be aware of.
|
||||
|
||||
- Open Interest (OI) is always lagged one day for options summaries. The OCC releases final open interest on a given day, and it represents the OI for the close of the prior day. Therefore, the OI I get in my summaries on 6/28 does not represent the OI as of close on 6/28. It represents the OI as of close on 6/25. If you see a source like Yahoo give live OI throughout the day, they are only estimates, and their algorithm methodology for estimating the OI based on various price/volume movement is a closely guarded secret. Using the prior day OI is currently a limitation of the data available to me.
|
||||
|
||||
*Disclaimer: I'm just a mathematician that likes to play with options data and builds models to trade for a hobby. I have no experience trading professionally or offering any advice to anyone. Nothing is certain in trading. It's all probabilities and what increases/decreases your chance at a profit. This is just one indicator for one type of price movement, and there are many other indicators that can help you make investment decisions.*
|
||||
|
||||
*I'll do my best to respond to all comments, including the negative ones. I'm happy to have a productive chat about any of my logic. I've gotten a lot of good ideas from posting on this forum, so thank you! However, if I can defend myself in a dark parking lot with nothing but my high heels, I can certainly defend myself against online trolls. So be nice.*
|
||||
|
||||
TLDR: This is just a quick update for the Delta Neutral/Gamma Neutral/Gamma Maximum indicators. The DN is currently ~$157, which isn't ideal for red days like we've been having, but GME always bounces back if it does drop. Hold strong!
|
@ -0,0 +1,164 @@
|
||||
Knock Knock Knockin' on Delta Neutral's Door
|
||||
============================================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/yelyah2](https://www.reddit.com/user/yelyah2/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/ojevhv/knock_knock_knockin_on_delta_neutrals_door/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
[Possible DD 👨🔬](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22Possible%20DD%20%F0%9F%91%A8%E2%80%8D%F0%9F%94%AC%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||
*Disclaimer: With the recent debate on the sub, I've decided to label my posts as "Possible DD" until someone is able to peer review my work, and independently replicate it. So far, my only proof has been how it works in the field, which means it should not be blindly taken as truth. I fully support academic standards, as every part of my work in real life is peer reviewed and my work has always been improved by an extra set of eyes. However, I also support choice and freedom of speech, so I think it's up to every writer to decide how to label their own work. It's also the responsibility of every reader to judge the quality of content they read, and don't take anything at face value. To the moon for us all!*
|
||||
|
||||
TLDR: My read of several indicators (both contained in this post, and in my model) is we should start seeing some buying pressure this week, most likely in the option settlement period (Tuesday - Thursday), which will start us on a steady incline upwards.
|
||||
|
||||
Although I can't report an imminent trip to the heavens using my indicators, I can say that we're knocking on the Delta Neutral's door... just as good? No.. but it does signal a turn-around is coming soon!
|
||||
|
||||
My work is built on the idea that the market is largely unpredictable, but one particular kind of behavior is certain - hedgies gonna hedge. It's written into their algorithms. Specifically, they like to delta hedge and gamma hedge. This work tries to profit on this one particular type of buying/selling behavior. If you're lost, please refer to the detailed data dictionary, methodology and assumptions section at the bottom.
|
||||
|
||||
*Delta/Gamma Neutral Graphs*
|
||||
|
||||
Here she is! This graph includes the Close Price (green), delta neutral (blue), gamma neutral (orange) and gamma maximum (red), on a log-based 10 scale so you can see those spikes in all their glory.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/6xmd5xls20b71.png?width=910&format=png&auto=webp&s=9fdb10a53d66a907fc38a7580259c821bfd151ca)
|
||||
|
||||
GME 1/4/2021 - 7/12/2021 - Log Based 10 Scale
|
||||
|
||||
Observations for the graph below:
|
||||
|
||||
- the GME close price has been drifting downwards, while the delta neutral has been drifting upwards.
|
||||
|
||||
- The gamma neutral has been bouncing around between, and now the DN/GN/Close are all converging.
|
||||
|
||||
- Because the underlying price is drifting lower, instead of dropping quickly, so it MAY continue to drop past the DN before springing back up, but based on other indicators, I expect that pressure from hitting the DN will start making it more appealing to call buyers, and we should start to see a steady incline soon.
|
||||
|
||||
- The max gamma is holding steady at $260, which is my target to hit in order to launch us upwards.
|
||||
|
||||
Just for fun, I thought would share a few other popular stocks that you can review for comparison. As you can see, the stocks often stay above the delta neutral, but occasionally drop to the delta neutral, and even sometimes below it, before ricocheting back upwards.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/3ictf87i20b71.png?width=910&format=png&auto=webp&s=eb6dceff875317457c402dbe781a2700bdc76d11)
|
||||
|
||||
Movie Stock 1/4/2021 - 6/18/2021
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/woxnaf6p20b71.png?width=910&format=png&auto=webp&s=6e8d49ecece333cc7d28a2290f23ca8d0db57496)
|
||||
|
||||
BBBY 1/4/2021 - 6/28/2021
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/1netpi6n20b71.png?width=910&format=png&auto=webp&s=aa662200c7effe6332404cd98f7201c3fc14ed1a)
|
||||
|
||||
SPCE 1/4/2021 - 6/28/2021
|
||||
|
||||
*7/16 Expiration Dates*
|
||||
|
||||
I know everyone's getting excited about the 7/16 puts expiring, but I have a few considerations:
|
||||
|
||||
- 47% of all Call OI is expiring this Friday, versus 48% of all put oi. This battle is losing about the same number of bear/bull warriors on each side.
|
||||
|
||||
- On the other hand, 81% of call OI currently has strikes > 1.05 x Close, versus 96% of put oi with strikes < close / 1.05. So we should be keeping a higher percentage of valuable bull warriors, compared to the valuable bear warriors kept by the other side after Friday.
|
||||
|
||||
- The max pain is currently @$180, versus $200 for options expiring next week. I would never trade by the max pain, but it can be a good benchmark, and 11% increase for next week's options is a good sign that the equilibrium is trending up.
|
||||
|
||||
- The IV for the OTM puts (~Put @ -0.25 delta) minus the IV for ATM calls (Call @ ~0.50 delta) has been positive for the last few weeks, indicating higher buying pressure for OTM puts, compared to calls, and has corresponded to our long price drop.
|
||||
|
||||
- However, that difference finally turned negative today, indicating the IV for ATM calls is greater than the IV for the OTM puts, signaling the buying pressure for those OTM puts is easing up this week. Hopefully the bear put's reign of terror is finally subsiding after three.... long... brutal.... weeks....
|
||||
|
||||
Finally, for reasons I would like to keep to myself because it's a big part of my alpha, I am expecting a nice bump in volume in the settlement period this week (Tuesday - Thursday), about an extra 1.1M more than usual, probably on Wednesday, which will result in some buying pressure if we maintain this nice low volume we've been having.
|
||||
|
||||
TLDR: My read of several indicators (both contained in this post, and in my model) is we should start seeing some buying pressure this week, most likely in the option settlement period (Tuesday - Thursday), which will start us on a steady incline upwards.
|
||||
|
||||
*Now it's time to tell you all the boring stuff....*
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/tstg6emk20b71.png?width=650&format=png&auto=webp&s=6e000a848f0399709f49b81739e1ce9ffc3a51a8)
|
||||
|
||||
*fart noises*
|
||||
|
||||
Overview
|
||||
|
||||
In general, all stock indicators boil down to two things - reversion to the mean and momentum. Every trader wants to accurately predict these two forces better than other guy, and if you use different indicators than the other guy, that an give you an 'alpha' in trading if it's a better predictor.
|
||||
|
||||
I make a lot of different indicators, but the two primary ones are the Delta Neutral and Gamma Neutral:
|
||||
|
||||
- Delta Neutral (DN) - This helps identify reversion to the mean, and represents the underlying price that would create a total market delta of 0 across all GME options (all expiration dates) for a given date. In general, it acts like a floor to the underlying price, but if the price drops below the delta neutral, then it tends to shoot back up above that line.
|
||||
|
||||
- This is generally how I trade my model. I watch for stocks that drop below the DN, and buy them, expecting for traders to identify that the stock is underpriced and will revert back to a higher level.
|
||||
|
||||
- Gamma Neutral (GN) and Gamma Maximum (GM) - This helps identify momentum. The GN represents the underlying price that would create a total market gamma of 0 across all GME options (all expiration dates) for a given date, whereas the GM represents the underlying price that would create the maximum gamma across the market.
|
||||
|
||||
- In general, a sudden increase in gamma indicates a sharp upward in momentum that continues until that gamma drops.
|
||||
|
||||
- The GM seems to act like a ceiling, but fun things happen when the underlying crossing that threshold!
|
||||
|
||||
This is my own personal 'alpha' that I developed for my own trading purposes, and am sharing with this community because it's given me back so much. This is not financial advice. I'm just a mathematician that likes to play with options data, and I am not a professional trader.
|
||||
|
||||
*Methodology and Assumptions*
|
||||
|
||||
Delta Neutral
|
||||
|
||||
The Delta Neutral price that creates a total market delta of 0 across all GME options (all expiration dates) for a given date. It can also be though of as the intersection of a supply/demand curve for hedged stocks. See the "Methodology and Assumptions" section for full detail on how I develop this indicator.
|
||||
|
||||
Notes below for general options on how the delta neutral interacts with the underlying price:
|
||||
|
||||
- There is a large influx of call option purchases, because:
|
||||
|
||||
- The call prices get less expensive as the underlying price approaches the delta neutral
|
||||
|
||||
- Stock prices usually rebound/revert back to the mean after large crashes, so the price often rebounds anyways.
|
||||
|
||||
- With the large influx of call volume, market makers have to start buying stocks to delta hedge, which turns the price back around and creates an upward trajectory.
|
||||
|
||||
- Important note that hedgies often hedge with derivatives instead of buying stocks, so there isn't a 1-to-1 relationship between the delta and shares bought/sold by hedge funds.
|
||||
|
||||
- Historically, you can see that GME often bounces off the delta neutral prices during drops. The exception is the February drop. When the underlying goes below the delta neutral price, a lot of pressure builds up that results in a significant increase when that pressure is released.
|
||||
|
||||
- Note this is the primary way that I trade my model. I made a scanner that looks for equities that fall below the delta neutral.
|
||||
|
||||
Gamma Neutral
|
||||
|
||||
The Gamma Neutral price that creates a total market gamma of 0 across all GME options (all expiration dates) for a given date. See the "Methodology and Assumptions" section for full detail on how I develop this indicator.
|
||||
|
||||
General notes below for observations on how this indicator behaves:
|
||||
|
||||
- It acts like support/resistance between the delta neutral and the underlying, and typically bounces around between the two prices for most symbols (like we have seen with GME since April).
|
||||
|
||||
- It also goes crazy in periods of high volatility, as you can see by the very higher spikes.
|
||||
|
||||
- A gamma spike indicates the presence of POTENTAILLY slippery option market conditions, which COULD lead to a gamma squeeze. There were certainly spikes present back in January, but we had a few one-day false starts this last month.
|
||||
|
||||
- They are often triggered by high price movement in a day, which can lead to continue high growth if underlying volume supports it.
|
||||
|
||||
- Gamma spikes can also be triggered by unusual options purchases during the day. These are the one ones to find, because you can often catch the high increase waves before they actually start.
|
||||
|
||||
- If I'm trading this indicator, I often either wait for a gamma spike to continue for 2 days in a row and supported by increased volume. Otherwise, I invest straight away if I find a gamma spike just based on options movement (i.e. no significant underlying increase yet).
|
||||
|
||||
I write my own algorithms to produce the results above. The following lists some key methodology and assumptions I use:
|
||||
|
||||
- I rely on daily options and stock summaries produced by [www.historicaloptionsdata.com](http://www.historicaloptionsdata.com/)
|
||||
|
||||
- For the Implied Volatility (IV), I use the following method:
|
||||
|
||||
- Calculate the raw IV of the mid-point between bid/ask price at close.
|
||||
|
||||
- Calculate a "blend" IV, which represents the IV where the call/put parity holds, i.e. where call delta -- put delta = 1, using the same IV.
|
||||
|
||||
- Smooth the mid-point call/put and blend IV using a gaussian smoothing algorithm with a 20-strike window.
|
||||
|
||||
- Apply the smoothed call/put relativities to the smoothed blended IV curve
|
||||
|
||||
- Fill any missing values with a linear interpolation of the neighboring strikes.
|
||||
|
||||
- Using the final call/put IV estimates described above, I calculate my own Greeks. I like this source if you're interested in the formulas: <https://www.macroption.com/option-greeks-excel>
|
||||
|
||||
- For the total market delta and total market gamma, I rely on the OI x delta and OI x gamma for each strike price.
|
||||
|
||||
- Note that the delta of a call is usually equal to (1 - put delta), so not adjustment is needed to the delta signs when calculating the total market delta.
|
||||
|
||||
- However, the call/put gammas are both positive based on the B-S calculation. If you're calculating the total gamma for a portfolio, or the total market, you have to add the call gamma and subtract the put gamma.
|
||||
|
||||
- To estimate the delta neutral and the gamma neutral, I have an algorithm that relies on the optimization toolbox in Matlab to identify an underlying price that achieve a total market delta and a total market gamma.
|
||||
|
||||
- Note that the IV would change with higher/lower prices for the delta/gamma neutral and the sensitivity tests, but the impact is not significant enough to make a meaningful difference and takes significant processing time to apply the IV curves. However, it is an important simplifying assumption to be aware of.
|
||||
|
||||
- Open Interest (OI) is always lagged one day for options summaries. The OCC releases final open interest on a given day, and it represents the OI for the close of the prior day. Therefore, the OI I get in my summaries on 6/28 does not represent the OI as of close on 6/28. It represents the OI as of close on 6/25. If you see a source like Yahoo give live OI throughout the day, they are only estimates, and their algorithm methodology for estimating the OI based on various price/volume movement is a closely guarded secret. Using the prior day OI is currently a limitation of the data available to me.
|
||||
|
||||
TLDR: My read of several indicators (both contained in this post, and in my model) is we should start seeing some buying pressure this week, most likely in the option settlement period (Tuesday - Thursday), which will start us on a steady incline upwards.
|
@ -0,0 +1,68 @@
|
||||
Delta Neutral Update
|
||||
====================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/yelyah2](https://www.reddit.com/user/yelyah2/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/okfg08/delta_neutral_update/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
[Possible DD 👨🔬](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22Possible%20DD%20%F0%9F%91%A8%E2%80%8D%F0%9F%94%AC%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||
I know today was a rough day, but wanted to share a quick update of what I'm seeing with my indicators for those that are interested.
|
||||
|
||||
[Prior post if you need help on terminology/methods/assumptions](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/ojevhv/knock_knock_knockin_on_delta_neutrals_door/)
|
||||
|
||||
[Example of the sub DN life cycle](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/ok4chd/special_edition_down_under_the_delta_neutral/)
|
||||
|
||||
Updated chart below:
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/c3hc9pw249b71.png?width=910&format=png&auto=webp&s=2522625750a354aa817aa5a25b06e722a3dc0fe6)
|
||||
|
||||
GME 1/4/2021 - 7/14/2021
|
||||
|
||||
Quick notes:
|
||||
|
||||
- Today was obviously a bad day, and continued the downward trajectory
|
||||
|
||||
- The start of the downward trend for the DN is not an optimistic indicator for an immediate turn-around. It shows that the options buying/selling/hedging is supporting the underlying's decrease.
|
||||
|
||||
- OTM Put IV increased relative to the ATM Call IV, indicating buying pressure for OTM puts, indicating a bearish bias on the options side.
|
||||
|
||||
- The OTM Put IV increase is also supported by relatively high put volume today (54%), compared to the normal 30% - 40% puts. The increase in put purchases also helps drive the price down.
|
||||
|
||||
- The good news is the 30-day ATM IV tanked for calls, dropping from ~1.3 yesterday to 1.09 today, and came with a 50% discount on those 30-day ATM call prices.
|
||||
|
||||
My best guess is GME will continue to decrease until the put buying pressure wears off and the stock stabilizes. At that point, I expect an influx of call buyers tempted by the discount we're starting, which will help create buying pressure/a reversal.
|
||||
|
||||
I thought I would quickly show a few other stocks that made trips below the DN:
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/m294wci469b71.png?width=910&format=png&auto=webp&s=d721c37f86e85ceaebac67399d59091fed2152c4)
|
||||
|
||||
TSLA 2/5/2020 - 6/28/2021
|
||||
|
||||
Here, the pandemic slump sent TSLA down below the DN, and its drop was supported by a decrease in the DN, so it took time for TSLA to recover.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/jr3gaepg69b71.png?width=910&format=png&auto=webp&s=14ff90ce334bc853e2873f402674e8a03f29f9f4)
|
||||
|
||||
ZM 2/5/2020 - 6/28/2021
|
||||
|
||||
ZM obviously didn't have a pandemic slump, and it may have briefly passed below the DN before bouncing back on its trajectory upwards, but as it decreased, and was supported by the DN decrease, the priced bounced beneath the DN during the decrease, until the DN finally supported the increase in June.
|
||||
|
||||
Now a few examples where the DN held relatively steady while the price dipped beneath, and helped the price bounce back quickly:
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/jlglhlbg89b71.png?width=910&format=png&auto=webp&s=ac1f52daee86b545bd03a017dba99eec6ddb9baa)
|
||||
|
||||
AMD 2/5/2020 - 6/28/2021
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/50e0mfw289b71.png?width=910&format=png&auto=webp&s=2365452ae4da3cf849cf4c68b9e01d05bc134d61)
|
||||
|
||||
CAT 2/5/2020 - 6/28/2021
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/s9by02t789b71.png?width=910&format=png&auto=webp&s=2bdf52e1aed2bd6a911f3cfa91202cc4cf2f4337)
|
||||
|
||||
CHWY 2/5/2020 - 6/28/2021
|
||||
|
||||
TLDR: GME could continue its downward trajectory, and my indicators are showing SLIGHT support for that drop, but the slope is very small (3% decrease in the DN this week and a 4% decrease in the Max Gamma). There are good indicators that option buyers will be tempted by the current discounted call options, but my guess is they will wait for the price to stabilize before jumping in. We'll probably have at least one flat trading day before we see investors coming back in.
|
||||
|
||||
*Disclaimer: I'm just a mathematician that likes to play with options data and builds models to trade for a hobby. I have no experience trading professionally or offering any advice to anyone. This is just one indicator for one type of price movement, and there are many other indicators that can help you make investment decisions.*
|
@ -0,0 +1,286 @@
|
||||
Special Edition: Down Under the Delta Neutral
|
||||
=============================================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/yelyah2](https://www.reddit.com/user/yelyah2/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/ok4chd/special_edition_down_under_the_delta_neutral/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
[Possible DD 👨🔬](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22Possible%20DD%20%F0%9F%91%A8%E2%80%8D%F0%9F%94%AC%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||
Here we go, here we go! We are under the Delta Neutral (DN).... I repeat... we are under the Delta Neutral...
|
||||
|
||||
This is where I trade this indicator, and we are in my world now.... the Upside Down DN World....
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/7cylj5x1k6b71.png?width=1195&format=png&auto=webp&s=ff5babd2fac7b7b66abf0a416ca2e2484c10f7f4)
|
||||
|
||||
do do doooo.....
|
||||
|
||||
I've been showing you the log-based 10 graphs lately, because nothing super exciting has been happening, but here's a graph showing the DN up close and personal, showing we closed under the DN yesterday!
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/9ftbjem0k6b71.png?width=910&format=png&auto=webp&s=0916d523cf593eaf2737a62a5f8e8155e0ec4270)
|
||||
|
||||
GME 1/6/2021 - 7/13/2021
|
||||
|
||||
For Part I of this post, let me take you all the way back to FEBRUARY 2021.... the last time it happened...
|
||||
|
||||
PART 1 - THE FEBRUARY TRIP BELOW
|
||||
|
||||
It was a dark time... money lost... sanity drained... FUD everywhere... We all clung onto our hopes, DD, and each other. We all have our memories of that time long ago, and mine are held through the lens of the DN World.
|
||||
|
||||
Let's see what happened:
|
||||
|
||||
- First, the price tanks. Pick your reason why. We aren't covering that now.
|
||||
|
||||
- As the price tanks, hedgies are selling off loads of shares based on their OI, and helping the price continue to drop hard.
|
||||
|
||||
- As the price drops below the delta neutral, the IV is suppressed very quickly, as shown in the graph below. It also tanks from ~10.0 to bouncing around 1.0-3.0 within a WEEK
|
||||
|
||||
- Check what happens when the price tanks in March. The IV has an initial spike, the settled into a 2.0-4.0 range for FIVE weeks before settling down further.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/vonx8y6zj6b71.png?width=910&format=png&auto=webp&s=278e95650859b24575f3a813ca324a89b8852849)
|
||||
|
||||
GME 1/4/2021 - 7/13/2021
|
||||
|
||||
- The IV also tanks under the DN, and ATM prices suddenly go on discount. The 30-day ATM prices go from $130-$155 at the peak (~40% of Underlying Price), to $6-$11 by 2/5 (~10% of Underlying Price).
|
||||
|
||||
- Call Prices are often lower than Put Prices at this time. Call prices look tasty to investors, because... STONKS GO UP! This is why stocks generally sit on top of the delta neutral. There are generally more call buyers than put buyers.
|
||||
|
||||
Quick palette cleanser before we move on?
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/qvbe41sxj6b71.png?width=656&format=png&auto=webp&s=8a659858dc3d25f1eb699a17dd7bedf8399b22fc)
|
||||
|
||||
yummmm
|
||||
|
||||
Ok, let's continue....
|
||||
|
||||
- By the crash, the put OI is monstrously huge. I know there's a lot of debate around this right now. My personal opinion is it's a mix of the following:
|
||||
|
||||
- Come on.... the price went from ~$10 to almost $500 in a couple of months. People thought this thing was going to crash back down after it squeezed. It was a safe bet to buy puts on it. Not everything against GME is nefarious...
|
||||
|
||||
- I said not EVERYTHING.... There is some craaazy OTM put volume/OI during the January squeeze, that correspond to increase in those put prices, and the volume / OI ratio is waaaayy high. Again... personal conjecture here... but what if Citadel HF was selling those puts to Citadel MM, and Citadel MM executed their OTM positions, effectively forfeiting their premium. What does this do? It allows Citadel MM to give a cash injection to Citadel HF on the open market, gets around their firewall separating the two entities, and can take advantage of Citadel MM special privileges.
|
||||
|
||||
- I've heard all kinds of theories on other strategies for those OTM put OI's, and for me, it always comes back to: * No, they're not going to do any strategy that involves buying a ton of stocks (*cough* married puts *cough*), because the point is they shorted it a ton, the stocks are hard to come by, and it's really expensive to do. * Who's buying those teeny Puts? There are a lot of reasons someone would want to sell those puts, which is what most explanation boils down to. Hell.... I'd love for someone to buy a load of $0.50 puts from me, but seriously... who's buying them? That's how I came to the theory above. * Feel like there's going to be some fights over this, but let's be honest... no one actually knows the answer to this question, it's all theories at this point.
|
||||
|
||||
- The Call OI has now dropped from 47% on 1/22 to 14% by 2/1. However, once the price drops under the DN, the Call OI starts building up fast, as in 35% - 66% increases within each week, while the put OI only increases around 0% - 2% each week, which makes the Call OI bangs up to 25% by the February bounce.
|
||||
|
||||
Ready to find out what that fast build-up of Call OI did?
|
||||
|
||||
or do you want another palette cleanser?
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/wbzkwf9wj6b71.png?width=760&format=png&auto=webp&s=e0f5ac2937910087161c4c02f84440736752e0bd)
|
||||
|
||||
raaaawwwrrr
|
||||
|
||||
Sorry... those come with the territory....
|
||||
|
||||
- Ok, so as all those people are buying up calls, the total market delta is going up, and hedgies are buying up more and more stocks because of it.
|
||||
|
||||
- If you recall a few posts ago, I talked to you about the build-up of the total market delta. If you don't remember, [here's my post](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/o9qb4n/delta_neutral_update_any_meaningful_underlying/), or check the bottom for the details.
|
||||
|
||||
The graph below summaries the total market delta share equivalents (dark blue) versus the underlying close price (green).
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/vqfw7iuuj6b71.png?width=909&format=png&auto=webp&s=d81c3c58fe8eb0b3681407952987199d6bc330f3)
|
||||
|
||||
GME Total Market Delta Share Equivalent versus Underlying Close
|
||||
|
||||
You'll notice that total market delta increased significantly BEFORE the January and February/March squeezes. This helped to contribute to the buying pressure to push GME upwards.
|
||||
|
||||
Ohhh and who do we have here? It's our good friend, GAMMA!!
|
||||
|
||||
High ATM Gamma Factors makes everything nice and squeezy. Those factors increase right before significant increases, as shown in the table below.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/hwhh2hbtj6b71.png?width=910&format=png&auto=webp&s=86f8529521c1bf8ed2ce170fd349bf62618af04a)
|
||||
|
||||
GME Close/DN/ATM Gamma Factors
|
||||
|
||||
Then once the Underlying Close Price hits the Gamma Maximum point and...
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/c8nc9y4pj6b71.png?width=2598&format=png&auto=webp&s=3f2a8b7c1074a129bc4c912dbe0bcec665471779)
|
||||
|
||||
BOOOOMMM!!!
|
||||
|
||||
Ok, so all kinds of things happened in February, but I wanted to walk you through the general Life Cycle of stocks under the DN, using GME as an example.
|
||||
|
||||
TLDR - Part 1:
|
||||
|
||||
The life cycle of a stock under the DN generally consists of the following parts:
|
||||
|
||||
- Underlying price drops below the DN
|
||||
|
||||
- IV decreases
|
||||
|
||||
- Call/Put prices decrease
|
||||
|
||||
- Stock price just dropped + stonks go up + calls look tasty = higher call buying
|
||||
|
||||
- Options sellers buy up stocks to hedge
|
||||
|
||||
- If you're lucky, your good friend Gamma shows up
|
||||
|
||||
- Bing, bang, boom, you're back over the DN.
|
||||
|
||||
PART 2 - STARTING THE JOURNEY BELOW
|
||||
|
||||
As we start on this adventure below the DN together, just remember that we are in this together and to always pay the ferryman.
|
||||
|
||||
Let's quickly remind ourselves what's happening now:
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/yttusvynj6b71.png?width=910&format=png&auto=webp&s=dbd870b866a4c302612bd3bce967c6c9f1a7e9fe)
|
||||
|
||||
- The price closed at $180.06 yesterday, compared to the DN of $188.
|
||||
|
||||
- The ATM put volatility dropped from 1.2 to 1.09 (lowest since 5/11), and I suspect the ATM call volatility will follow soon.
|
||||
|
||||
- The ATM option prices dropped around 5% today
|
||||
|
||||
- The total market delta equivalent shares is dropping with the price, and accelerating the drop as option sellers and selling off more and more shares
|
||||
|
||||
- The ATM gamma factor is low right now, and nothing particularly interesting is going on with the other gamma indicators
|
||||
|
||||
How long will this take?
|
||||
|
||||
- Retail could storm in at pre-market and buy the dip to bring it out straight away, and it would have nothing to do with these indicators.
|
||||
|
||||
- If hedging controls the volume, then it usually reverses in 1-3 days. When I trade this indicator, I plan for returns to be worth holding for 2 weeks.
|
||||
|
||||
- It is not common for stocks to sit under the DN for as long as GME did back in February, but we all know GME is a special one!
|
||||
|
||||
Watch the following to signal a reversal:
|
||||
|
||||
- A drop in IV/option premiums
|
||||
|
||||
- High call % volume/OI
|
||||
|
||||
- I'll be watching the other indicators, and will report anything interesting
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/2telmucmj6b71.png?width=533&format=png&auto=webp&s=d8566faa09d186ce9b64db87c8a9f021a2a575eb)
|
||||
|
||||
To the moon for us all!
|
||||
|
||||
TLDR - Part 2:
|
||||
|
||||
- Hold tight
|
||||
|
||||
- This part is fun
|
||||
|
||||
- Watch options if you want
|
||||
|
||||
*Now it's time to tell you all the boring stuff....*
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/bm1l5jikj6b71.png?width=1200&format=png&auto=webp&s=9a704e70bacf00d1f0fafeb6f144a1faf56b47fd)
|
||||
|
||||
wah waahhhh
|
||||
|
||||
Overview
|
||||
|
||||
In general, all stock indicators boil down to two things - reversion to the mean and momentum. Every trader wants to accurately predict these two forces better than other guy, and if you use different indicators than the other guy, that an give you an 'alpha' in trading if it's a better predictor.
|
||||
|
||||
I make a lot of different indicators, but the two primary ones are the Delta Neutral and Gamma Neutral:
|
||||
|
||||
- Delta Neutral (DN) - This helps identify reversion to the mean, and represents the underlying price that would create a total market delta of 0 across all GME options (all expiration dates) for a given date. In general, it acts like a floor to the underlying price, but if the price drops below the delta neutral, then it tends to shoot back up above that line.
|
||||
|
||||
- This is generally how I trade my model. I watch for stocks that drop below the DN, and buy them, expecting for traders to identify that the stock is underpriced and will revert back to a higher level.
|
||||
|
||||
- Gamma Neutral (GN) and Gamma Maximum (GM) - This helps identify momentum. The GN represents the underlying price that would create a total market gamma of 0 across all GME options (all expiration dates) for a given date, whereas the GM represents the underlying price that would create the maximum gamma across the market.
|
||||
|
||||
- In general, a sudden increase in gamma indicates a sharp upward in momentum that continues until that gamma drops.
|
||||
|
||||
- The GM seems to act like a ceiling, but fun things happen when the underlying crossing that threshold!
|
||||
|
||||
This is my own personal 'alpha' that I developed for my own trading purposes, and am sharing with this community because it's given me back so much. This is not financial advice. I'm just a mathematician that likes to play with options data, and I am not a professional trader.
|
||||
|
||||
*Methodology and Assumptions*
|
||||
|
||||
Delta
|
||||
|
||||
The Delta of an option represents the expected change to an option's price based on a $1 change in the security's underlying price. For example, if the GME underlying price is at $100,000,000 and a GME $102,000,000 strike call has a delta of 0.2, then that call option price will increase by $0.2 if the GME underlying price moves up to $100,000,001. Note that the price is also affected by gamma so will actually be higher than the $0.2 price increase estimated by delta, which will be covered later.
|
||||
|
||||
Delta hedging is a trading strategy employed by market makers (MM's) to minimalize the directional risk associated with price movements in the underlying security. Traditionally, you can think of a MM buying 20 (0.2 x 100) stocks of the underlying security if the price increases by $1 (using the example above). However, it's important to note that hedge funds often use other derivatives to hedge, not just buying/selling stocks because it requires less capital to do so. However, these indicators can be used as a directional proxy for some of the MM behavior as the underlying price increases/decreases.
|
||||
|
||||
The total market delta share equivalent represents the sum of delta x OI across all strikes/expiration prices in a given trading day. I will say it one more time, hedge funds are not actually holding this number of shares on a given day to hedge. They often hedge with other market derivatives. However, it can give us an indicator for hedge funds buying/selling underlying equity relativities.
|
||||
|
||||
Delta Neutral
|
||||
|
||||
The Delta Neutral price that creates a total market delta of 0 across all GME options (all expiration dates) for a given date. It can also be though of as the intersection of a supply/demand curve for hedged stocks. See the "Methodology and Assumptions" section for full detail on how I develop this indicator.
|
||||
|
||||
Notes below for general options on how the delta neutral interacts with the underlying price:
|
||||
|
||||
- There is a large influx of call option purchases, because:
|
||||
|
||||
- The call prices get less expensive as the underlying price approaches the delta neutral
|
||||
|
||||
- Stock prices usually rebound/revert back to the mean after large crashes, so the price often rebounds anyways.
|
||||
|
||||
- With the large influx of call volume, market makers have to start buying stocks to delta hedge, which turns the price back around and creates an upward trajectory.
|
||||
|
||||
- Important note that hedgies often hedge with derivatives instead of buying stocks, so there isn't a 1-to-1 relationship between the delta and shares bought/sold by hedge funds.
|
||||
|
||||
- Historically, you can see that GME often bounces off the delta neutral prices during drops. The exception is the February drop. When the underlying goes below the delta neutral price, a lot of pressure builds up that results in a significant increase when that pressure is released.
|
||||
|
||||
- Note this is the primary way that I trade my model. I made a scanner that looks for equities that fall below the delta neutral.
|
||||
|
||||
Gamma
|
||||
|
||||
The Gamma of an option represents the rate of change of the Delta of an option with respect to a $1 underlying price movement. From our example above, if the GME underlying price is at $100,000,000 and a GME $102,000,000 strike call has a delta of 0.2 and a gamma of 0.05, then that call option price would actually increase by $0.25 (0.2 + 0.05) if the GME underlying price moves up to $100,000,001.
|
||||
|
||||
MM also hedge against gamma risk, but the impact of buying/selling securities to hedge is often much lower than the impact of delta hedging (also remember that they use derivatives to hedge too). However, you are probably familiar with gamma because of the "gamma squeeze" that happened back in January. A gamma squeeze happens when the underlying stock price begins to go up very quickly in a short period of time. This forces more buying activity from rapidly increasing deltas/hedging, which continues to inflate the price.
|
||||
|
||||
Gamma Neutral/Maximum
|
||||
|
||||
The Gamma Neutral price that creates a total market gamma of 0 across all GME options (all expiration dates) for a given date. The Gamma Maximum price creates the maximum total market gamma across all GME options.
|
||||
|
||||
General notes below for observations on how the Gamma Neutral indicator behaves:
|
||||
|
||||
- It acts like support/resistance between the delta neutral and the underlying, and typically bounces around between the two prices for most symbols (like we have seen with GME since April).
|
||||
|
||||
- It also goes crazy in periods of high volatility, as you can see by the very higher spikes.
|
||||
|
||||
- A gamma spike indicates the presence of POTENTAILLY slippery option market conditions, which COULD lead to a gamma squeeze. There were certainly spikes present back in January, but we had a few one-day false starts this last month.
|
||||
|
||||
- They are often triggered by high price movement in a day, which can lead to continue high growth if underlying volume supports it.
|
||||
|
||||
- Gamma spikes can also be triggered by unusual options purchases during the day. These are the one ones to find, because you can often catch the high increase waves before they actually start.
|
||||
|
||||
- If I'm trading this indicator, I often either wait for a gamma spike to continue for 2 days in a row and supported by increased volume. Otherwise, I invest straight away if I find a gamma spike just based on options movement (i.e. no significant underlying increase yet).
|
||||
|
||||
General notes below for observations on how the Gamma Maximum indicator behaves:
|
||||
|
||||
- It generally acts like a ceiling for the underlying stock value
|
||||
|
||||
- However, when the stock breaks through the gamma maximum, fun things happen!
|
||||
|
||||
Methodology
|
||||
|
||||
I write my own algorithms to produce the results above. The following lists some key methodology and assumptions I use:
|
||||
|
||||
- I rely on daily options and stock summaries produced by [www.historicaloptionsdata.com](http://www.historicaloptionsdata.com/)
|
||||
|
||||
- For the Implied Volatility (IV), I use the following method:
|
||||
|
||||
- Calculate the raw IV of the mid-point between bid/ask price at close.
|
||||
|
||||
- Calculate a "blend" IV, which represents the IV where the call/put parity holds, i.e. where call delta -- put delta = 1, using the same IV.
|
||||
|
||||
- Smooth the mid-point call/put and blend IV using a gaussian smoothing algorithm with a 20-strike window.
|
||||
|
||||
- Apply the smoothed call/put relativities to the smoothed blended IV curve
|
||||
|
||||
- Fill any missing values with a linear interpolation of the neighboring strikes.
|
||||
|
||||
- Using the final call/put IV estimates described above, I calculate my own Greeks. I like this source if you're interested in the formulas: <https://www.macroption.com/option-greeks-excel>
|
||||
|
||||
- For the total market delta and total market gamma, I rely on the OI x delta and OI x gamma for each strike price.
|
||||
|
||||
- Note that the delta of a call is usually equal to (1 - put delta), so not adjustment is needed to the delta signs when calculating the total market delta.
|
||||
|
||||
- However, the call/put gammas are both positive based on the B-S calculation. If you're calculating the total gamma for a portfolio, or the total market, you have to add the call gamma and subtract the put gamma.
|
||||
|
||||
- To estimate the delta neutral and the gamma neutral, I have an algorithm that relies on the optimization toolbox in Matlab to identify an underlying price that achieve a total market delta and a total market gamma.
|
||||
|
||||
- Note that the IV would change with higher/lower prices for the delta/gamma neutral and the sensitivity tests, but the impact is not significant enough to make a meaningful difference and takes significant processing time to apply the IV curves. However, it is an important simplifying assumption to be aware of.
|
||||
|
||||
- Open Interest (OI) is always lagged one day for options summaries. The OCC releases final open interest on a given day, and it represents the OI for the close of the prior day. Therefore, the OI I get in my summaries on 6/28 does not represent the OI as of close on 6/28. It represents the OI as of close on 6/25. If you see a source like Yahoo give live OI throughout the day, they are only estimates, and their algorithm methodology for estimating the OI based on various price/volume movement is a closely guarded secret. Using the prior day OI is currently a limitation of the data available to me.
|
||||
|
||||
*Disclaimer: With the recent debate on the sub, I've decided to label my posts as "Possible DD" until someone is able to peer review my work, and independently replicate it. So far, my only proof has been how it works in the field, which means it should not be blindly taken as truth. I think every writer should hold themselves to their own standards, and no one else's. Every aspect of my work is peer reviewed in real life, so this is my own standard. It's also the responsibility of every reader to judge the quality of content they read, and don't take anything at face value. To the moon for us all!*
|
@ -0,0 +1,164 @@
|
||||
Delta Neutral Update: Coming up for Air!
|
||||
========================================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/yelyah2](https://www.reddit.com/user/yelyah2/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/oo5c7t/delta_neutral_update_coming_up_for_air/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
[Possible DD 👨🔬](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22Possible%20DD%20%F0%9F%91%A8%E2%80%8D%F0%9F%94%AC%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||
All - it looks like this could've been a quick trip underneath the Delta Neutral.
|
||||
|
||||
TLDR: Brace yourself for the possibility of hitting the $184 DN mark a couple times before it rebounds back over the DN.
|
||||
|
||||
*Delta/Gamma Neutral Graphs*
|
||||
|
||||
Here's an update to my graph showing the Close Price (green), delta neutral (blue), gamma neutral (orange) and gamma maximum (red). Log-based 10 scale below so you can see the gamma spikes in all their glory!
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/0wrvx6fa3ec71.png?width=910&format=png&auto=webp&s=a46bb78da6a63bb09c17d5c0959697386858693e)
|
||||
|
||||
GME 1/4/2021 - 7/19/2021
|
||||
|
||||
Log based 10 scale to give you a high-level overview
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/nyhliedc3ec71.png?width=910&format=png&auto=webp&s=635ff082bad8e984c2e0ff66efb13e612a24ef53)
|
||||
|
||||
GME 1/4/2021 - 7/19/2021 - Log Based 10
|
||||
|
||||
Quick Background
|
||||
|
||||
My work is built on the idea that the market is largely unpredictable, but one particular kind of behavior is certain - hedgies gonna hedge. It's written into their algorithms. Specifically, they like to delta hedge and gamma hedge. This work tries to profit on this one particular type of buying/selling behavior. If you're lost, please refer to the detailed data dictionary, methodology and assumptions section at the bottom.
|
||||
|
||||
Quick Notes
|
||||
|
||||
Key Points:
|
||||
|
||||
- The Delta Neutral (DN) is currently at $184.
|
||||
|
||||
- Last February, GME was deep under the DN for a couple weeks, which built up a lot of pressure and contributed to its rebound upwards.
|
||||
|
||||
- This trip under the DN only lasted a couple days, so the rebound may not be as violent.
|
||||
|
||||
- I also want to warn you that it may tap against $184 a couple times before rebounding. A few examples below.
|
||||
|
||||
As you can see for Roku below, the underlying close (green) had definitive rebounds back above the DN (dark blue) in March/April, but in May, you can see that it tapped against its DN three times before pushing over.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/q13ak3jz4ec71.png?width=910&format=png&auto=webp&s=f59022d187c8e1cab9892e6ef7a89c8d5b9f22f7)
|
||||
|
||||
ROKU 1/4/2021 - 6/17/2021
|
||||
|
||||
Hard to say what the secret ingredient is for what exactly contributes to the definitive push over the DN versus a couple tests first, but it's likely just some good ol' fashion momentum.
|
||||
|
||||
Here's hoping we decisively push through today!
|
||||
|
||||
Here are a couple options tid-bits for you before I sign off:
|
||||
|
||||
- The 7/16 expirations did help with the call %, which currently sits at 26%, compared to 25% on 2/16 and 22% last Monday.
|
||||
|
||||
- The key part here is the comparison to last Monday, because historically call buyers have been predominately buying cheaper calls for the next expiration date, hoping to get lucky and catch the next MOASS, so historically, there is a big drop in call % between Mondays/Friday, then slowly builds-up during the week.
|
||||
|
||||
- We haven't had a Monday call % this high since 1/25!! That Monday had a 37% call OI, so were not quite at the same level now.
|
||||
|
||||
- Yesterday, 69% of all volume was for this next expiration date, and 64% of that volume were for calls, so hoping we push the call OI up!
|
||||
|
||||
- GME IV/prices are still relatively cheap, so hoping that will lead to more call buyers
|
||||
|
||||
- The overall put IV is still higher than the call IV, indicating higher put buying pressure
|
||||
|
||||
- Similarly, the OTM put IV (-0.25 delta) is still higher than the ATM call IV (0.5 delta), which indicates higher OTM buying pressure, so we're not out of the woods yet.
|
||||
|
||||
- I've seen a lot of talk about gamma squeezes, and I don't think we're anywhere close to one. Last January, the ATM gamma was between 0.07 - 0.18 prior to the squeeze. Last Friday, we were at 0.0004, and there was an uptick up to 0.02 yesterday. We'll see if the upward trend continues.
|
||||
|
||||
TLDR: Brace yourself for the possibility of hitting the $184 DN mark a couple times before it rebounds back over the DN.
|
||||
|
||||
Overview
|
||||
|
||||
In general, all stock indicators boil down to two things - reversion to the mean and momentum. Every trader wants to accurately predict these two forces better than other guy, and if you use different indicators than the other guy, that an give you an 'alpha' in trading if it's a better predictor.
|
||||
|
||||
I make a lot of different indicators, but the two primary ones are the Delta Neutral and Gamma Neutral:
|
||||
|
||||
- Delta Neutral (DN) - This helps identify reversion to the mean, and represents the underlying price that would create a total market delta of 0 across all GME options (all expiration dates) for a given date. In general, it acts like a floor to the underlying price, but if the price drops below the delta neutral, then it tends to shoot back up above that line.
|
||||
|
||||
- This is generally how I trade my model. I watch for stocks that drop below the DN, and buy them, expecting for traders to identify that the stock is underpriced and will revert back to a higher level.
|
||||
|
||||
- Gamma Neutral (GN) and Gamma Maximum (GM) - This helps identify momentum. The GN represents the underlying price that would create a total market gamma of 0 across all GME options (all expiration dates) for a given date, whereas the GM represents the underlying price that would create the maximum gamma across the market.
|
||||
|
||||
- In general, a sudden increase in gamma indicates a sharp upward in momentum that continues until that gamma drops.
|
||||
|
||||
- The GM seems to act like a ceiling, but fun things happen when the underlying crossing that threshold!
|
||||
|
||||
This is my own personal 'alpha' that I developed for my own trading purposes, and am sharing with this community because it's given me back so much. This is not financial advice. I'm just a mathematician that likes to play with options data, and I am not a professional trader.
|
||||
|
||||
*Methodology and Assumptions*
|
||||
|
||||
Delta Neutral
|
||||
|
||||
The Delta Neutral price that creates a total market delta of 0 across all GME options (all expiration dates) for a given date. It can also be though of as the intersection of a supply/demand curve for hedged stocks. See the "Methodology and Assumptions" section for full detail on how I develop this indicator.
|
||||
|
||||
Notes below for general options on how the delta neutral interacts with the underlying price:
|
||||
|
||||
- There is a large influx of call option purchases, because:
|
||||
|
||||
- The call prices get less expensive as the underlying price approaches the delta neutral
|
||||
|
||||
- Stock prices usually rebound/revert back to the mean after large crashes, so the price often rebounds anyways.
|
||||
|
||||
- With the large influx of call volume, market makers have to start buying stocks to delta hedge, which turns the price back around and creates an upward trajectory.
|
||||
|
||||
- Important note that hedgies often hedge with derivatives instead of buying stocks, so there isn't a 1-to-1 relationship between the delta and shares bought/sold by hedge funds.
|
||||
|
||||
- Historically, you can see that GME often bounces off the delta neutral prices during drops. The exception is the February drop. When the underlying goes below the delta neutral price, a lot of pressure builds up that results in a significant increase when that pressure is released.
|
||||
|
||||
- Note this is the primary way that I trade my model. I made a scanner that looks for equities that fall below the delta neutral.
|
||||
|
||||
Gamma Neutral
|
||||
|
||||
The Gamma Neutral price that creates a total market gamma of 0 across all GME options (all expiration dates) for a given date. See the "Methodology and Assumptions" section for full detail on how I develop this indicator.
|
||||
|
||||
General notes below for observations on how this indicator behaves:
|
||||
|
||||
- It acts like support/resistance between the delta neutral and the underlying, and typically bounces around between the two prices for most symbols (like we have seen with GME since April).
|
||||
|
||||
- It also goes crazy in periods of high volatility, as you can see by the very higher spikes.
|
||||
|
||||
- A gamma spike indicates the presence of POTENTAILLY slippery option market conditions, which COULD lead to a gamma squeeze. There were certainly spikes present back in January, but we had a few one-day false starts this last month.
|
||||
|
||||
- They are often triggered by high price movement in a day, which can lead to continue high growth if underlying volume supports it.
|
||||
|
||||
- Gamma spikes can also be triggered by unusual options purchases during the day. These are the one ones to find, because you can often catch the high increase waves before they actually start.
|
||||
|
||||
- If I'm trading this indicator, I often either wait for a gamma spike to continue for 2 days in a row and supported by increased volume. Otherwise, I invest straight away if I find a gamma spike just based on options movement (i.e. no significant underlying increase yet).
|
||||
|
||||
I write my own algorithms to produce the results above. The following lists some key methodology and assumptions I use:
|
||||
|
||||
- I rely on daily options and stock summaries produced by [www.historicaloptionsdata.com](http://www.historicaloptionsdata.com/)
|
||||
|
||||
- For the Implied Volatility (IV), I use the following method:
|
||||
|
||||
- Calculate the raw IV of the mid-point between bid/ask price at close.
|
||||
|
||||
- Calculate a "blend" IV, which represents the IV where the call/put parity holds, i.e. where call delta -- put delta = 1, using the same IV.
|
||||
|
||||
- Smooth the mid-point call/put and blend IV using a gaussian smoothing algorithm with a 20-strike window.
|
||||
|
||||
- Apply the smoothed call/put relativities to the smoothed blended IV curve
|
||||
|
||||
- Fill any missing values with a linear interpolation of the neighboring strikes.
|
||||
|
||||
- Using the final call/put IV estimates described above, I calculate my own Greeks. I like this source if you're interested in the formulas: <https://www.macroption.com/option-greeks-excel>
|
||||
|
||||
- For the total market delta and total market gamma, I rely on the OI x delta and OI x gamma for each strike price.
|
||||
|
||||
- Note that the delta of a call is usually equal to (1 - put delta), so not adjustment is needed to the delta signs when calculating the total market delta.
|
||||
|
||||
- However, the call/put gammas are both positive based on the B-S calculation. If you're calculating the total gamma for a portfolio, or the total market, you have to add the call gamma and subtract the put gamma.
|
||||
|
||||
- To estimate the delta neutral and the gamma neutral, I have an algorithm that relies on the optimization toolbox in Matlab to identify an underlying price that achieve a total market delta and a total market gamma.
|
||||
|
||||
- Note that the IV would change with higher/lower prices for the delta/gamma neutral and the sensitivity tests, but the impact is not significant enough to make a meaningful difference and takes significant processing time to apply the IV curves. However, it is an important simplifying assumption to be aware of.
|
||||
|
||||
- Open Interest (OI) is always lagged one day for options summaries. The OCC releases final open interest on a given day, and it represents the OI for the close of the prior day. Therefore, the OI I get in my summaries on 6/28 does not represent the OI as of close on 6/28. It represents the OI as of close on 6/25. If you see a source like Yahoo give live OI throughout the day, they are only estimates, and their algorithm methodology for estimating the OI based on various price/volume movement is a closely guarded secret. Using the prior day OI is currently a limitation of the data available to me.
|
||||
|
||||
*Disclaimer: I'm just a mathematician that likes to play with options data and builds models to trade for a hobby. I have no experience trading professionally or offering any advice to anyone. This is just one indicator for one type of price movement, and there are many other indicators that can help you make investment decisions.*
|
@ -0,0 +1,154 @@
|
||||
Delta Neutral Update: Blowing Past the DN!
|
||||
==========================================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/yelyah2](https://www.reddit.com/user/yelyah2/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/ooc25b/delta_neutral_update_blowing_past_the_dn/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
[Possible DD 👨🔬](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22Possible%20DD%20%F0%9F%91%A8%E2%80%8D%F0%9F%94%AC%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||
TLDR: We blew past the DN today, and now we have a higher probability of continuing this upward momentum.
|
||||
|
||||
Recap:
|
||||
|
||||
[On 7/13, I called out that we were about to hit the DN, and it will probably mean we'll bounce off it, like we have in the past.](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/ojevhv/knock_knock_knockin_on_delta_neutrals_door/)
|
||||
|
||||
[But we didn't bounce off it, instead we sunk underneath it for the first time since February. I gave an overview of life under the DN.](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/ok4chd/special_edition_down_under_the_delta_neutral/)
|
||||
|
||||
[Today, it looked like we would blow past the DN, and I warned that sometimes stocks bounce off it like a ceiling a couple times before going over.](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/oo5c7t/delta_neutral_update_coming_up_for_air/)
|
||||
|
||||
Today - I'm happy to report that GME was given a choice.... accept the DN as the ceiling like the weakling or push through it... GME made its choice:
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/9yulxdq7tfc71.png?width=268&format=png&auto=webp&s=3af5256082e71d35391525a3536d082c6625e440)
|
||||
|
||||
yessssss......
|
||||
|
||||
And to that I say....
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/bm3i1pfetfc71.png?width=537&format=png&auto=webp&s=071c422f39c69fc121b2c1ea9bfd49cb8c563f68)
|
||||
|
||||
Updated graph below, showing the Close Price (green), delta neutral (blue), gamma neutral (orange) and gamma maximum (red). Log-based 10 scale below so you can see the gamma spikes in all their glory!
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/s2vt0oigtfc71.png?width=910&format=png&auto=webp&s=bf4afc39cdaa6adddfa9ef229dfc953a62f7c94f)
|
||||
|
||||
GME 1/4/2021 - 7/20/2021
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/pnui6sxwtfc71.png?width=910&format=png&auto=webp&s=b750bbb248fb84e25e04e11f1008ef4f6563403a)
|
||||
|
||||
GME 1/4/2021 - 7/20/2021 - log based 10
|
||||
|
||||
Yes, there is a chance it will go back down, bounce of the DN (currently at $185), go back beneath and start all over. However, there is a higher probability that it will keep going up at this point.
|
||||
|
||||
Our next target should be the gamma max point of $241. If we get there, then we should have the max amount of gamma to....
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/tvqppvsoufc71.png?width=1920&format=png&auto=webp&s=bc0ded79f84838e8a0176788f7443f3fc8611869)
|
||||
|
||||
BOOOOOOM!!!
|
||||
|
||||
Here are a couple options tid-bits for you before I sign off:
|
||||
|
||||
- The 7/16 expirations did help with the call %, which is currently up to 28%. Highest it's been since 1/26/2021!
|
||||
|
||||
- 68% of volume was for calls today, so should help push that call OI higher!
|
||||
|
||||
- GME IV/prices are getting higher, so expecting the options buying to cool off a bit.
|
||||
|
||||
- Note that I don't think we're anywhere close to one until we start approaching the gamma max point (~$240). Last January, the ATM gamma was between 0.07 - 0.18 prior to the squeeze. Last Friday, we were at 0.0004, up to 0.02 yesterday and back down to 0.01 today.
|
||||
|
||||
Now it's time for the boring part of our story.....
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/xs87fj3qtfc71.png?width=1284&format=png&auto=webp&s=381b8d2f45c061e51eb8bd1392d961f4c94fec01)
|
||||
|
||||
*yaaawwnn*
|
||||
|
||||
Overview
|
||||
|
||||
In general, all stock indicators boil down to two things - reversion to the mean and momentum. Every trader wants to accurately predict these two forces better than other guy, and if you use different indicators than the other guy, that an give you an 'alpha' in trading if it's a better predictor.
|
||||
|
||||
I make a lot of different indicators, but the two primary ones are the Delta Neutral and Gamma Neutral:
|
||||
|
||||
- Delta Neutral (DN) - This helps identify reversion to the mean, and represents the underlying price that would create a total market delta of 0 across all GME options (all expiration dates) for a given date. In general, it acts like a floor to the underlying price, but if the price drops below the delta neutral, then it tends to shoot back up above that line.
|
||||
|
||||
- This is generally how I trade my model. I watch for stocks that drop below the DN, and buy them, expecting for traders to identify that the stock is underpriced and will revert back to a higher level.
|
||||
|
||||
- Gamma Neutral (GN) and Gamma Maximum (GM) - This helps identify momentum. The GN represents the underlying price that would create a total market gamma of 0 across all GME options (all expiration dates) for a given date, whereas the GM represents the underlying price that would create the maximum gamma across the market.
|
||||
|
||||
- In general, a sudden increase in gamma indicates a sharp upward in momentum that continues until that gamma drops.
|
||||
|
||||
- The GM seems to act like a ceiling, but fun things happen when the underlying crossing that threshold!
|
||||
|
||||
This is my own personal 'alpha' that I developed for my own trading purposes, and am sharing with this community because it's given me back so much. This is not financial advice. I'm just a mathematician that likes to play with options data, and I am not a professional trader.
|
||||
|
||||
*Methodology and Assumptions*
|
||||
|
||||
Delta Neutral
|
||||
|
||||
The Delta Neutral price that creates a total market delta of 0 across all GME options (all expiration dates) for a given date. It can also be though of as the intersection of a supply/demand curve for hedged stocks. See the "Methodology and Assumptions" section for full detail on how I develop this indicator.
|
||||
|
||||
Notes below for general options on how the delta neutral interacts with the underlying price:
|
||||
|
||||
- There is a large influx of call option purchases, because:
|
||||
|
||||
- The call prices get less expensive as the underlying price approaches the delta neutral
|
||||
|
||||
- Stock prices usually rebound/revert back to the mean after large crashes, so the price often rebounds anyways.
|
||||
|
||||
- With the large influx of call volume, market makers have to start buying stocks to delta hedge, which turns the price back around and creates an upward trajectory.
|
||||
|
||||
- Important note that hedgies often hedge with derivatives instead of buying stocks, so there isn't a 1-to-1 relationship between the delta and shares bought/sold by hedge funds.
|
||||
|
||||
- Historically, you can see that GME often bounces off the delta neutral prices during drops. The exception is the February drop. When the underlying goes below the delta neutral price, a lot of pressure builds up that results in a significant increase when that pressure is released.
|
||||
|
||||
- Note this is the primary way that I trade my model. I made a scanner that looks for equities that fall below the delta neutral.
|
||||
|
||||
Gamma Neutral
|
||||
|
||||
The Gamma Neutral price that creates a total market gamma of 0 across all GME options (all expiration dates) for a given date. See the "Methodology and Assumptions" section for full detail on how I develop this indicator.
|
||||
|
||||
General notes below for observations on how this indicator behaves:
|
||||
|
||||
- It acts like support/resistance between the delta neutral and the underlying, and typically bounces around between the two prices for most symbols (like we have seen with GME since April).
|
||||
|
||||
- It also goes crazy in periods of high volatility, as you can see by the very higher spikes.
|
||||
|
||||
- A gamma spike indicates the presence of POTENTAILLY slippery option market conditions, which COULD lead to a gamma squeeze. There were certainly spikes present back in January, but we had a few one-day false starts this last month.
|
||||
|
||||
- They are often triggered by high price movement in a day, which can lead to continue high growth if underlying volume supports it.
|
||||
|
||||
- Gamma spikes can also be triggered by unusual options purchases during the day. These are the one ones to find, because you can often catch the high increase waves before they actually start.
|
||||
|
||||
- If I'm trading this indicator, I often either wait for a gamma spike to continue for 2 days in a row and supported by increased volume. Otherwise, I invest straight away if I find a gamma spike just based on options movement (i.e. no significant underlying increase yet).
|
||||
|
||||
I write my own algorithms to produce the results above. The following lists some key methodology and assumptions I use:
|
||||
|
||||
- I rely on daily options and stock summaries produced by [www.historicaloptionsdata.com](http://www.historicaloptionsdata.com/)
|
||||
|
||||
- For the Implied Volatility (IV), I use the following method:
|
||||
|
||||
- Calculate the raw IV of the mid-point between bid/ask price at close.
|
||||
|
||||
- Calculate a "blend" IV, which represents the IV where the call/put parity holds, i.e. where call delta -- put delta = 1, using the same IV.
|
||||
|
||||
- Smooth the mid-point call/put and blend IV using a gaussian smoothing algorithm with a 20-strike window.
|
||||
|
||||
- Apply the smoothed call/put relativities to the smoothed blended IV curve
|
||||
|
||||
- Fill any missing values with a linear interpolation of the neighboring strikes.
|
||||
|
||||
- Using the final call/put IV estimates described above, I calculate my own Greeks. I like this source if you're interested in the formulas: <https://www.macroption.com/option-greeks-excel>
|
||||
|
||||
- For the total market delta and total market gamma, I rely on the OI x delta and OI x gamma for each strike price.
|
||||
|
||||
- Note that the delta of a call is usually equal to (1 - put delta), so not adjustment is needed to the delta signs when calculating the total market delta.
|
||||
|
||||
- However, the call/put gammas are both positive based on the B-S calculation. If you're calculating the total gamma for a portfolio, or the total market, you have to add the call gamma and subtract the put gamma.
|
||||
|
||||
- To estimate the delta neutral and the gamma neutral, I have an algorithm that relies on the optimization toolbox in Matlab to identify an underlying price that achieve a total market delta and a total market gamma.
|
||||
|
||||
- Note that the IV would change with higher/lower prices for the delta/gamma neutral and the sensitivity tests, but the impact is not significant enough to make a meaningful difference and takes significant processing time to apply the IV curves. However, it is an important simplifying assumption to be aware of.
|
||||
|
||||
- Open Interest (OI) is always lagged one day for options summaries. The OCC releases final open interest on a given day, and it represents the OI for the close of the prior day. Therefore, the OI I get in my summaries on 6/28 does not represent the OI as of close on 6/28. It represents the OI as of close on 6/25. If you see a source like Yahoo give live OI throughout the day, they are only estimates, and their algorithm methodology for estimating the OI based on various price/volume movement is a closely guarded secret. Using the prior day OI is currently a limitation of the data available to me.
|
||||
|
||||
*Disclaimer: I'm just a mathematician that likes to play with options data and builds models to trade for a hobby. I have no experience trading professionally or offering any advice to anyone. This is just one indicator for one type of price movement, and there are many other indicators that can help you make investment decisions.*
|
@ -0,0 +1,13 @@
|
||||
I can't believe you apes are having such trouble understanding Reverse Repos.
|
||||
=============================================================================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/Chumbag_love](https://www.reddit.com/user/Chumbag_love/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/oh4lyz/i_cant_believe_you_apes_are_having_such_trouble/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
|
||||
[Education 👨🏫 | Data 🔢](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22Education%20%F0%9F%91%A8%E2%80%8D%F0%9F%8F%AB%20%7C%20Data%20%F0%9F%94%A2%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://i.redd.it/95kgcm5249a71.png)
|
@ -0,0 +1,12 @@
|
||||
🔴Daily Reverse Repo Update 07/07: $785.720B🔴
|
||||
==============================================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/pctracer](https://www.reddit.com/user/pctracer/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/ofnful/daily_reverse_repo_update_0707_785720b/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
[Education 👨🏫 | Data 🔢](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22Education%20%F0%9F%91%A8%E2%80%8D%F0%9F%8F%AB%20%7C%20Data%20%F0%9F%94%A2%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||

|
@ -0,0 +1,12 @@
|
||||
🔴Daily Reverse Repo Update 07/08: $793.399B🔴
|
||||
==============================================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/pctracer](https://www.reddit.com/user/pctracer/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/ogbrfh/daily_reverse_repo_update_0708_793399b/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
[Education 👨🏫 | Data 🔢](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22Education%20%F0%9F%91%A8%E2%80%8D%F0%9F%8F%AB%20%7C%20Data%20%F0%9F%94%A2%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||

|
@ -0,0 +1,12 @@
|
||||
🔴Daily Reverse Repo Update 07/09: $780.596B🔴
|
||||
==============================================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/pctracer](https://www.reddit.com/user/pctracer/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/oh09j2/daily_reverse_repo_update_0709_780596b/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
[Education 👨🏫 | Data 🔢](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22Education%20%F0%9F%91%A8%E2%80%8D%F0%9F%8F%AB%20%7C%20Data%20%F0%9F%94%A2%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||

|
@ -0,0 +1,12 @@
|
||||
🔴Daily Reverse Repo Update 07/12: $776.472B🔴
|
||||
==============================================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/pctracer](https://www.reddit.com/user/pctracer/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/oivs13/daily_reverse_repo_update_0712_776472b/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
[Education 👨🏫 | Data 🔢](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22Education%20%F0%9F%91%A8%E2%80%8D%F0%9F%8F%AB%20%7C%20Data%20%F0%9F%94%A2%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||

|
@ -0,0 +1,12 @@
|
||||
🔴Daily Reverse Repo Update 07/13: $798.267B🔴
|
||||
==============================================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/pctracer](https://www.reddit.com/user/pctracer/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/ojk6za/daily_reverse_repo_update_0713_798267b/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
[Education 👨🏫 | Data 🔢](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22Education%20%F0%9F%91%A8%E2%80%8D%F0%9F%8F%AB%20%7C%20Data%20%F0%9F%94%A2%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||

|
@ -0,0 +1,12 @@
|
||||
🔴Daily Reverse Repo Update 07/14: $859.975B🔴
|
||||
==============================================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/pctracer](https://www.reddit.com/user/pctracer/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/ok8ydt/daily_reverse_repo_update_0714_859975b/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
[Education 👨🏫 | Data 🔢](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22Education%20%F0%9F%91%A8%E2%80%8D%F0%9F%8F%AB%20%7C%20Data%20%F0%9F%94%A2%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||

|
@ -0,0 +1,12 @@
|
||||
🔴Daily Reverse Repo Update 07/15: $776.261B🔴
|
||||
==============================================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/pctracer](https://www.reddit.com/user/pctracer/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/okxcsu/daily_reverse_repo_update_0715_776261b/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
[Education 👨🏫 | Data 🔢](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22Education%20%F0%9F%91%A8%E2%80%8D%F0%9F%8F%AB%20%7C%20Data%20%F0%9F%94%A2%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||

|
@ -0,0 +1,12 @@
|
||||
🔴Daily Reverse Repo Update 07/16: $817.566B🔴
|
||||
==============================================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/pctracer](https://www.reddit.com/user/pctracer/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/olldqj/daily_reverse_repo_update_0716_817566b/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
[Education 👨🏫 | Data 🔢](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22Education%20%F0%9F%91%A8%E2%80%8D%F0%9F%8F%AB%20%7C%20Data%20%F0%9F%94%A2%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||

|
@ -0,0 +1,12 @@
|
||||
🔴Daily Reverse Repo Update 07/19: $860.468B🔴
|
||||
==============================================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/pctracer](https://www.reddit.com/user/pctracer/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/onik91/daily_reverse_repo_update_0719_860468b/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
[Education 👨🏫 | Data 🔢](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22Education%20%F0%9F%91%A8%E2%80%8D%F0%9F%8F%AB%20%7C%20Data%20%F0%9F%94%A2%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||

|
@ -0,0 +1,12 @@
|
||||
🔴Daily Reverse Repo Update 07/20: $848.102B🔴
|
||||
==============================================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/pctracer](https://www.reddit.com/user/pctracer/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/oo6i49/daily_reverse_repo_update_0720_848102b/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
[Education 👨🏫 | Data 🔢](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22Education%20%F0%9F%91%A8%E2%80%8D%F0%9F%8F%AB%20%7C%20Data%20%F0%9F%94%A2%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||

|
@ -0,0 +1,265 @@
|
||||
The Chronicles of Short & Shorter, Ep. 1: Before the January Sneeze
|
||||
===================================================================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/nydus_erdos](https://www.reddit.com/user/nydus_erdos/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/ogi75b/the_chronicles_of_short_shorter_ep_1_before_the/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
|
||||
[DD 👨🔬](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22DD%20%F0%9F%91%A8%E2%80%8D%F0%9F%94%AC%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||
Disclaimer: Not financial advice. I've put a disproportionate amount of time into this for free, I clearly do not make good decisions, except for GME of course. This is at best, fancier napkin math.
|
||||
|
||||
ALL POSTS BUILD ON EACH OTHER. IF THERE'S SOMETHING THAT SEEMS LIKE I GLOSS OVER HERE, YOU'LL LIKELY FIND IT (IN DETAIL) IN MY PREVIOUS POSTS: [Vol. 1](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nw8281/math_black_magic_vol_1_why_it_is_mathematically/), [Vol. 2](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nwy0oz/math_black_magic_vol_2_the_limit_does_not_exist/), [Vol. 3](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nya5ps/math_black_magic_vol_3_trillion_short_share_seance/), [Epilogue](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/odrnbv/math_black_magic_final_vol_epilogue/), [Microeconomic Primer](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/of1lz2/malleus_oeconomica_a_compressed_primer/)
|
||||
|
||||
Main Sources: [Finnerty Paper](https://www.sec.gov/comments/s7-08-08/s70808-318.pdf), [Microeconomics 7th Edition by Jeffrey M. Perloff](http://dl.rasabourse.com/MIT.Mircroeconomics.Jeffrey%20M.%20Perloff%20-%20Microeconomics%20(2014,%20Pearson).pdf)
|
||||
|
||||
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
|
||||
|
||||
A. Intro
|
||||
|
||||
I thought for a long time for a concise way to describe this series. Unfortunately for you, I am ape-tarded and no matter how hard I tried, this kept repeating in my head. I apologize in advance.
|
||||
|
||||
([Begin drum loop](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JgLcJFad90I))
|
||||
|
||||
Nobody: Hey Nydus, can you tell us a bedtime story?
|
||||
|
||||
Ok, heeerrre we go:
|
||||
|
||||
Once upon a time not long ago
|
||||
|
||||
When people went long and invested slow
|
||||
|
||||
When laws were stern and justice stood
|
||||
|
||||
And people were investin' like they ought to: good
|
||||
|
||||
There was little Gabe who his broke bread
|
||||
|
||||
With another Kenny boy and this is what he said:
|
||||
|
||||
"Me, you and Steve are gonna make some G's
|
||||
|
||||
Shorting inelastic curves and makin' FTDs"
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/h3pm3f5yu1a71.png?width=960&format=png&auto=webp&s=38b8a860a22c6e65827337655485cbe3e2e299c8)
|
||||
|
||||
I DID NOT MAKE THIS! IT WAS ORIGINALLY POSTED BY u/MisterFinishLine.! https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nii1s6/short_shorter/
|
||||
|
||||
I DID NOT MAKE THIS MEME! CREDIT IN THE CAPTION!
|
||||
|
||||
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
|
||||
|
||||
B. Assumptions
|
||||
|
||||
*SHORTS HAVE NOT COVERED*
|
||||
|
||||
Before I get into this one, read these excerpts from Finnerty's paper:
|
||||
|
||||
> "Naked short selling and manipulating the price downward provide cash returns to the manipulator, who can withdraw cash from his clearing firm account as the shorted shares are marked to market at progressively lower prices. Through naked shorting, the manipulator realizes these returns without investing any cash (provided the market price never rises above the sale price)." (Pg. 34, par. 1)
|
||||
|
||||
> "The clearing firm retains the cash proceeds from the short sale to secure the selling broker's delivery obligation. The clearing firm releases cash equal to the reduction in value of the shorted shares as the price of the shares declines (or demands additional cash margin if the share price rises)." (Pg. 34, footnote 51)
|
||||
|
||||
Yes, you read that correctly. Naked short selling is pretty much FREE MONEY. On top of this, finance is OBSESSED with maximization. Finnerty mentions it frequently, and the calculus behind all this stuff is pretty maximization problems.
|
||||
|
||||
What I'm saying is, we're familiar with Citadel and Co.'s natural inclination towards all consuming greed has been further sharpened by mathematical indoctrination. Ultimately, Kenny and Co. maximize their profit by never closing their FTDs. Why would they? Who was gonna check?
|
||||
|
||||
There is also a mathematical basis:
|
||||
|
||||
> "The manipulator maximizes his profit by...naked shorting *P(3)* close to zero. The manipulator should sell short *A/(3B)* shares at time 1 resulting in *P(1) = 2A/3*...He should sell short an additional *A/(3B)* shares at time 2...The manipulator drives *P(3)* close to zero by adjusting the short position to *L/B* shares. If *L > 2A/3*, the manipulator will increase his short position; otherwise, he will decrease it."(Pg. 55, par. 1)
|
||||
|
||||
The only scenario where they could've reduced their position would conflict with our known Janurary SI. This also makes the calculations much more simple, as I don't have to worry about subtracting shares covered.
|
||||
|
||||
Along with this, Finnerty also describes a situation that might sound familiar:
|
||||
|
||||
> "...suppose the manipulator realizes at time 2 that the firm's share price the next period will be H, rather than L as originally expected, say, due to favorable developments in the firm's business. Suppose further that the securities regulators or the clearing house require all securities dealers to clear up all fails to deliver. The manipulator would face potentially large losses on his short sales. By short selling an additional 2A/(3B) shares at time 2, he can drive the share price close to zero" (Pg. 56, par. 3)
|
||||
|
||||
The quantity *2A/3B* is double the amount the manipulator usually sells at time 2, which indicates to me that they have to increase the magnitude of their attack to compensate. Past the Sneeze, I don't see how they would keep up such aggressive price suppression without increasing their position, especially when it was undeniable that this was a high value company.
|
||||
|
||||
*MONOPOLY MARKET*
|
||||
|
||||
Citadel and Co.'s market marking privileges have allowed them to form a monopoly on GME shares. They are the only suppliers. They have full direct control of quantity of output and indirect control over price. Assuming monopoly market simplifies calculations in that we do not have to consider actions from other players.
|
||||
|
||||
*INELASTIC DEMAND CURVE*
|
||||
|
||||
Basically, this means that the quantity demanded does not change much in response to a change in price and demand will at least stay constant. Throughout my calculations, only the inelastic value consistently provided reasonable answers. This also makes sense as we know even before the Sneeze there were diamond hands who knew the ~~value~~ deep fucking value of the company. From what I got, it appears that the only time apes had an elastic demand curve was when they turned off the buy button.
|
||||
|
||||
*NO SUPPLY CURVE, ONLY DEMAND*
|
||||
|
||||
Biggest thing I discovered is that short selling in general is that it defies the very law of supply. Instead of a producer supplying less as the price gets lower, naked short sellers supply more as the price gets lower. They can afford to since, until recently, naked short selling had zero cost.
|
||||
|
||||
On top of this, monopolies do not have supply curves. This lack of a supply curve makes a monopoly's output decision dependent on the shapes of its marginal cost curve and the market demand curve.
|
||||
|
||||
Because those reasons, I assume that price behavior over time is highly related to market demand, in that the elasticity (normalized/unitless) from the Price vs.Time charts is analogous to the elasticity on the market demand curve (Price vs. Quantity)
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/dhddnm6a32a71.png?width=612&format=png&auto=webp&s=0cea57adf59d86cc879d0a35d92b687439e97174)
|
||||
|
||||
Elasticity Assumption
|
||||
|
||||
*DOUBLE-HALF CONJECTURE*
|
||||
|
||||
The paper lays out the general strategy of a manipulator who is aggressively naked shorting a stock. Basically, the manipulator naked shorts a certain amount of shares based on a formula taking into account current market price, various probabilities, etc, etc. By the end of the paper, Finnerty proves mathematically that the manipulator must naked short at least as many shares as the firm has outstanding in order to short a companies price close to zero, not zero!. Side note, the reason its not zero is because:
|
||||
|
||||
> "The manipulated price could be less than a penny if market convention allows quotations in a fraction of a cent, as for example the OTCBB market does" (Pg. 11, footnote 21)
|
||||
|
||||
Anyway, the point is this strategy of shorting usually leaves a pattern. The first attack drops the price by about one-third (~33%), the second cuts that price in half (~50%) and the third kicks it down close to zero. Around the time the price is cut in half the manipulator has naked shorted the same amount of shares outstanding.
|
||||
|
||||
> "If *L > A/3*, the manipulator will naked short more shares than the firm has outstanding. The share price is *P(2) = A/3*, which is half what it was at time 1."
|
||||
|
||||
> "...if *L = A/3*, then the manipulator would naked short the same number of shares the firm has outstanding, doubling the float. He would halve the short position at time 3 to *A/(3B)*, restoring it to what it was at time 1. The strategic fail substantially decreases at the same time the share price declines because the intrinsic value of the shares decreases."
|
||||
|
||||
Going on this I assume that every time the price is approximately cut in half, the naked short seller has doubled the shares in existence.
|
||||
|
||||
*PROFIT STRATEGY*
|
||||
|
||||
They started short selling on the inelastic part of the demand curve. Normally, a monopoly wants to work on the elastic part of the demand curve. However, if you naked short sell an elastic curve the price will drop quicker with less shares shorted. I think its possible that Short, Shorter & Co. figured they could maximize profit by naked short selling on an inelastic demand curve, as they could short more shares over time since it takes more short shares to affect an inelastic demand curve.
|
||||
|
||||
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
|
||||
|
||||
C. Duration & Timeline
|
||||
|
||||
Einstein said the only infinite things are the universe and human stupidity. Were he alive today I'd ask him if he could human greed as well. To truly grasp how greedy, I'll run you through my estimation of the total duration of their short postion until the Sneeze.
|
||||
|
||||
From the price action, it looks Short, Shorter & Co. opened their short position approximately December 2015, going until December 2020 is:
|
||||
|
||||
- 5 calendar years
|
||||
|
||||
- 3.45 trading years
|
||||
|
||||
- 868 trading days
|
||||
|
||||
(Note: there about 252 trading days in a year. Almost exactly 69 percent (lol) of a calendar year)
|
||||
|
||||
I wanted to start with general data, so I eyeballed the Google chart of GME and these immediately stood out to me. We will be looking at the following dates (all approximate!):
|
||||
|
||||
- Time 0, October 30 2015. Initial conditions, price was approximately $46.14
|
||||
|
||||
- Time 1, July 29, 2016. Price dropped approximately 33% from about $46.14 and leveled out around $30.76
|
||||
|
||||
- Time 2, April 6, 2018. Price dropped by approximately 50 percent from $30.76 and leveled out around $15.38
|
||||
|
||||
- Time 3, Aug. 9 2019. Price dropped 75 percent from approximately $15.38 and leveled out around $3.85
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/jenb5en592a71.png?width=896&format=png&auto=webp&s=da1d4898f8ee2c771d437d167bc12ad954e362ff)
|
||||
|
||||
Price Chart
|
||||
|
||||
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
|
||||
|
||||
D. Equations and Variables
|
||||
|
||||
*FINNERTY FORMULAS*
|
||||
|
||||
These were closely examined in previous posts.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/w3fbaf2962a71.png?width=875&format=png&auto=webp&s=836d4bf51d27178da145dbcd418774628918a6b6)
|
||||
|
||||
Quantity Shorted
|
||||
|
||||
*HOW IS B DETERMINED?*
|
||||
|
||||
Also examined in previous posts.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/p5a216lr62a71.png?width=863&format=png&auto=webp&s=bf11d3228ae16f8e4f8e34bcc3fedf78c471b5e1)
|
||||
|
||||
Elasticity
|
||||
|
||||
*HOW IS A DETERMINED*
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/74xghtf972a71.png?width=877&format=png&auto=webp&s=d9a72646f9e7b0d7800d73cc584f52b9aa2dec5e)
|
||||
|
||||
Variable A
|
||||
|
||||
*HOW IS L DETERMINED*
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/66ockp4n72a71.png?width=885&format=png&auto=webp&s=dc91a802870b1c531ae45c65e78061f1c782edfe)
|
||||
|
||||
Variable L
|
||||
|
||||
*HOW H IS DETERMINED*
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/wg1yccku72a71.png?width=899&format=png&auto=webp&s=f51208f3bcb63d6c3093677ebedf4d6c6b3c9218)
|
||||
|
||||
Variable H
|
||||
|
||||
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
|
||||
|
||||
E. Results
|
||||
|
||||
*LOW ESTIMATE*
|
||||
|
||||
(In millions of shares; negative numbers imply that they decreased their position)
|
||||
|
||||
Chart 1.
|
||||
|
||||
| Time | Quantity Shorted (Q) |
|
||||
| --- | --- |
|
||||
| 1 | 51.788 |
|
||||
| 2 | 51.793 |
|
||||
| 3 | -18.912 |
|
||||
|
||||
Chart 2.
|
||||
|
||||
| Total Q at Time 2 | 103.58 |
|
||||
| --- | --- |
|
||||
| SI at Time 2 | 147% |
|
||||
| Total Q at Time 3 | 84.67 |
|
||||
| SI at Time 3 | 120% |
|
||||
|
||||
*HIGH ESTIMATE*
|
||||
|
||||
Chart 3.
|
||||
|
||||
| Time | Quantity Shorted (Q) |
|
||||
| --- | --- |
|
||||
| 1 | 51.788 |
|
||||
| 2 | 51.793 |
|
||||
| 3 | 122.49 |
|
||||
|
||||
Chart 4.
|
||||
|
||||
| Total Q at Time 2 | 103.58 |
|
||||
| --- | --- |
|
||||
| SI at Time 2 | 147% |
|
||||
| Total Q at Time 3 | 226.07 |
|
||||
| SI at Time 3 | 320% |
|
||||
|
||||
*AVERAGE OF H AND L*
|
||||
|
||||
Chart 5.
|
||||
|
||||
| Time | Quantity Shorted (Q) |
|
||||
| --- | --- |
|
||||
| 1 | 51.788 |
|
||||
| 2 | 51.793 |
|
||||
| 3 | 51.788 |
|
||||
|
||||
Chart 6.
|
||||
|
||||
| Total Q at Time 2 | 103.58 |
|
||||
| --- | --- |
|
||||
| SI at Time 2 | 147% |
|
||||
| Total Q at Time 3 | 155.37 |
|
||||
| SI at Time 3 | 220% |
|
||||
|
||||
F. Conclusion
|
||||
|
||||
Notice how that by time 2, when the price halves they had shorted more shares than shares outstanding.
|
||||
|
||||
Additionally, the best estimate we have of pre-Sneeze SI is from the Robinhood filing that lists ~225%. The average value was consistent with that.
|
||||
|
||||
I used this timeframe of estimates as a calibration of sorts and the model seems to hold here.
|
||||
|
||||
G. Next Post
|
||||
|
||||
I'll use the method described here to estimate how many shares were shorted during the Sneeze. The following post will cover after the Sneeze up to mid April 2021
|
||||
|
||||
H. TL;DR
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/kzvj5fxzd2a71.png?width=942&format=png&auto=webp&s=919c30110dbfbc4d746b16c59ed5ae95f5e0d4a4)
|
||||
|
||||
I DID NOT MAKE THIS! ORIGINAL MEME POSTED BY u/Archisaurus, https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/oev08e/this_is_my_brain_going_through_the_due_diligence/
|
||||
|
||||
I DID NOT MAKE THIS MEME TEMPLATE! CREDIT IN THE CAPTION!
|
@ -0,0 +1,227 @@
|
||||
The Chronicles Of Short & Shorter, Ep. 2: During the January Sneeze
|
||||
===================================================================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/nydus_erdos](https://www.reddit.com/user/nydus_erdos/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/oh8fcz/the_chronicles_of_short_shorter_ep_2_during_the/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
|
||||
[DD 👨🔬](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22DD%20%F0%9F%91%A8%E2%80%8D%F0%9F%94%AC%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||
Disclaimer: Not financial advice. I've put a disproportionate amount of time into this for free, I clearly do not make good decisions. Though I continually strive to improve this model it is, at best, just fancier napkin math.
|
||||
|
||||
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
|
||||
|
||||
Quick Descriptions of my Previous Posts, if something doesn't make sense its probably in here:
|
||||
|
||||
[Math Black Magic, Vol. 1: Why It Is Mathematically Impossible for Hedgies To Unfuk Themselves](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nw8281/math_black_magic_vol_1_why_it_is_mathematically/)
|
||||
|
||||
- If you only read one post, read this one
|
||||
|
||||
- TL;DR => Finance professor John Finnerty mathematically proves that it's impossible to short a stock to zero without naked shorting at least as many shares as there are outstanding, doubling the float in the process.
|
||||
|
||||
[Math Black Magic, Vol 2: The Limit Does Not Exist!](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nwy0oz/math_black_magic_vol_2_the_limit_does_not_exist/)
|
||||
|
||||
- This one touches on the price pattern of the short attacks
|
||||
|
||||
- TL;DR => At this point, the number of shares needed to short $GME to zero does not mathematically exist.
|
||||
|
||||
[Math Black Magic, Vol. 3: Trillion Short Share Seance](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nya5ps/math_black_magic_vol_3_trillion_short_share_seance/)
|
||||
|
||||
- TL;DR => I try to make estimates of shares shorted based on the known equations and data at that time. I stand by the methods, but they needed more refinement. Which leads to the following volume...
|
||||
|
||||
[Math Black Magic, Final Vol: Epilogue](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/odrnbv/math_black_magic_final_vol_epilogue/)
|
||||
|
||||
- TL;DR => I made this post as a sort of correction. I went through the model again and tightened it up and got an answer I feel much more confident in
|
||||
|
||||
[Malleus Oeconomica: A Compressed Primer](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/of1lz2/malleus_oeconomica_a_compressed_primer/)
|
||||
|
||||
- In Short & Shorter, I use several economic concepts and equations that need a little explaining first.
|
||||
|
||||
- TL;DR => This is already a compressed post. I can't really put it any simpler than I do in the post.
|
||||
|
||||
[The Chronicles of Short & Shorter, Ep. 1: During the January Sneeze](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/ogi75b/the_chronicles_of_short_shorter_ep_1_before_the/)
|
||||
|
||||
- This is the first step of the process from which I got my revised shares shorted count. I try to dissect their shorting strategy and quantity shorted from 2015 to before the January Sneeze.
|
||||
|
||||
- This post could really use some love as it got downvoted to oblivion by shills.
|
||||
|
||||
- TL;DR => scroll to bottom of this post
|
||||
|
||||
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
|
||||
|
||||
A. Intro
|
||||
|
||||
This is still stuck in my head from the last post. Once again very sorry:
|
||||
|
||||
([Begin drum loop](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JgLcJFad90I))
|
||||
|
||||
Absolutely nobody: Hey Nydus, can you tell us a bedtime story?
|
||||
|
||||
Ok, heeerrre we go:
|
||||
|
||||
Once upon a time not long ago
|
||||
|
||||
When people went long and invested slow
|
||||
|
||||
When laws were stern and justice stood
|
||||
|
||||
And people were investin' like they ought to: good
|
||||
|
||||
There was little Gabe who broke his bread
|
||||
|
||||
With another Kenny boy and this is what he said:
|
||||
|
||||
"Me, you and Steve are gonna make some G's
|
||||
|
||||
Shorting inelastic curves and makin' FTDs"
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/rlpmt8sv5aa71.png?width=960&format=png&auto=webp&s=a65ee9fcfc3acc396a6d44fa3158faa631903807)
|
||||
|
||||
I DID NOT MAKE THIS! IT WAS ORIGINALLY POSTED BY u/MisterFinishLine.! https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nii1s6/short_shorter/
|
||||
|
||||
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
|
||||
|
||||
B. Timeframe
|
||||
|
||||
- (Magenta circles denote time points)
|
||||
|
||||
- Time 0 - Squeeze peaked Jan. 27; P(0) = $357.51
|
||||
|
||||
- Buy Button turned off Jan. 28
|
||||
|
||||
- Time 1 - Feb 1 (3 trading days from time 0); P(1) = $214.51
|
||||
|
||||
- Time 2 - Feb 3 (5 trading days from time 0); P(2) = $85.80
|
||||
|
||||
- Time 3 - Feb 4 (6 trading days from time 0); P(3) = $51.48
|
||||
|
||||
- On approximately Feb. 10 (10 days from time 0) price settled out at ~$45
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/hx80j4xz5aa71.png?width=1085&format=png&auto=webp&s=7c8f2959588bd59a9430a81f24969f41a34bbe28)
|
||||
|
||||
Time Frame
|
||||
|
||||
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
|
||||
|
||||
C. Additional Assumptions
|
||||
|
||||
The full list of my assumptions can be found in Ep. 1. See links at top of post.
|
||||
|
||||
*SHORT ATTACK MAGNITUDE IS ALWAYS MAXIMUM*
|
||||
|
||||
In the last post, I mentioned an excerpt from Finnerty's paper, which should sound familiar:
|
||||
|
||||
> "...suppose the manipulator realizes at time 2 that the firm's share price the next period will be *H*, rather than *L* as originally expected, say, due to favorable developments in the firm's business. Suppose further that the securities regulators or the clearing house require all securities dealers to clear up all fails to deliver. The manipulator would face potentially large losses on his short sales. By short selling an additional *2A/(3B)* shares at time 2, he can drive the share price close to zero." (Pg. 56, par. 3)
|
||||
|
||||
The quantity *2A/3B* is double the amount the manipulator usually sells at time 2, which indicates to me that they have to increase the magnitude of their short attacks to compensate for the change to a higher value. I will not be using the quantity strategy described above as its mathematical parameters are different, but the I feel the circumstantial similarity provides reasonable basis to assume that during and after the Sneeze, they were always shorting the maximum amount of shares.
|
||||
|
||||
With all this in mind, and the fact that GME is a *H* company, I will no longer calculate/use variable *L*.
|
||||
|
||||
*ELASTIC DEMAND CURVE*
|
||||
|
||||
This assumptions ONLY applies to during the Sneeze as a result of them turning off the buy button. Using the elastic coefficient resulted in the lowest reasonable estimates as well. This makes sense as they can manipulate an elastic demand curve with less shares.
|
||||
|
||||
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
|
||||
|
||||
D. Price Pattern
|
||||
|
||||
With buy pressure pretty much neutralized. Its hard for me to judge the how much each contributed to price drop. I tried to identify if there were any clear trends. The first attack dropped price by 40 percent (normally it drops 33 percent), the second by 60 percent (normally it drops 50 percent) and the third by 40 percent (normally takes price close to zero). Not too much deviation, in fact, I expected more, but I assume that letting us buy limited amounts of shares on the way down stiffened out demand curve a little to maximize their profit.
|
||||
|
||||
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
|
||||
|
||||
E. Equations & Variables
|
||||
|
||||
FINNERTY FORMULAS
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/639fdtm76aa71.png?width=919&format=png&auto=webp&s=aaef42f88d1fa548228c36058666c33e0cc43d63)
|
||||
|
||||
Quantity Shorted
|
||||
|
||||
VARIABLE *B*
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/wsffrq9d6aa71.png?width=977&format=png&auto=webp&s=41b1023387afaef03ffa27804d227684807f2e83)
|
||||
|
||||
Elasticity
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/qzp3pn2k6aa71.png?width=851&format=png&auto=webp&s=7351cf0e65d49b0a9f5dbf9f1e4c4b81fe6b29aa)
|
||||
|
||||
Variable B
|
||||
|
||||
VARIABLE *A*
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/lxb615ps6aa71.png?width=980&format=png&auto=webp&s=20b127a5820b6fc1a3dc5f31c05997bb30a01cc8)
|
||||
|
||||
Variable A
|
||||
|
||||
VARIABLE *H*
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/weweuttv6aa71.png?width=949&format=png&auto=webp&s=02d60421b9608da3c743857227e8943251a5f8b2)
|
||||
|
||||
Variable H
|
||||
|
||||
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
|
||||
|
||||
F. Results
|
||||
|
||||
(Share counts in millions)
|
||||
|
||||
Chart 1: Shares Shorted During Sneeze
|
||||
|
||||
| Time (t) | Quantity Shorted |
|
||||
|
||||
| --- | --- |
|
||||
|
||||
| Time 1 | 62.642 |
|
||||
|
||||
| Time 2 | 62.648 |
|
||||
|
||||
| Time 3 | 133.35 |
|
||||
|
||||
Chart 2: Totals from During Sneeze ONLY
|
||||
|
||||
| Total Shorted Shares at Time 2 | 125.29 |
|
||||
|
||||
| --- | --- |
|
||||
|
||||
| SI at Time 2 | 177% |
|
||||
|
||||
| Total Shorted Shares at Time 3 | 258.64 |
|
||||
|
||||
| SI at Time 3 | 366% |
|
||||
|
||||
Chart 3: Cumulative Counts (Pre-Sneeze + During Sneeze)
|
||||
|
||||
| Shares Shorted from Pre-Sneeze | 155.37 |
|
||||
|
||||
| --- | --- |
|
||||
|
||||
| Pre-Sneeze SI | 220% |
|
||||
|
||||
| Cumulative Shorted Shares at this Point | 414.01 |
|
||||
|
||||
| Cumulative SI at this Point | 586% |
|
||||
|
||||
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
|
||||
|
||||
G. Conclusions
|
||||
|
||||
Notice how that by time 2, when the price halves they had shorted more shares than shares outstanding and by the end of time 3 they have shorted about the same amount of shares they had shorted Pre-Sneeze.
|
||||
|
||||
The more I extrapolate I assume my margin of error grows, but I still feel confident in these answers. I believe this is where reached a point that they were no longer able to drop us back down to $40. I feel like my hypotheses don't fully explain why though. Input is appreciated.
|
||||
|
||||
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
|
||||
|
||||
H. Next Post
|
||||
|
||||
We'll look at the time period after the January Sneeze to approximately mid-April 2021
|
||||
|
||||
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
|
||||
|
||||
I. TL;DR
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/gnbf87om5aa71.png?width=942&format=png&auto=webp&s=8908903c227c14ef950e94142d9d65589ac21ca0)
|
||||
|
||||
I DID NOT MAKE THIS! ORIGINAL MEME POSTED BY u/Archisaurus, https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/oev08e/this_is_my_brain_going_through_the_due_diligence/
|
@ -0,0 +1,548 @@
|
||||
[3/3] The Ultimate DD guide to the moon!!. Crazy Melon
|
||||
======================================================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/sydneyfriendlycub](https://www.reddit.com/user/sydneyfriendlycub/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/comments/n2hjnk/33_the_ultimate_dd_guide_to_the_moon_crazy_melon/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
[🔬 DD 📊](https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/search?q=flair_name%3A%22%F0%9F%94%AC%20DD%20%F0%9F%93%8A%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||
THIS IS FOR YOU MY APES!! None of this is financial advice. I'm a retarded ape playing with crayons and keys.
|
||||
|
||||
This message should reach every ape to help!
|
||||
|
||||
CONTENTS:
|
||||
|
||||
[PART 1](https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/comments/n2hgxq/13_the_ultimate_dd_guide_to_the_moon_crazy_melon/)
|
||||
|
||||
- US DOLLAR BACKING
|
||||
|
||||
- OVERVIEW OF KENNY'S/SHITADEL'S FUCKERY EXPOSED!
|
||||
|
||||
- HOW IS KENNY WASHING THE MONEY?
|
||||
|
||||
- TRUST BONDS: The basket of bonds INFITINE MONEY GLITCH!!!
|
||||
|
||||
- BIG BANKS ARE HOLDINGS COMPANIES???? WHAT IS THAT?
|
||||
|
||||
[PART 2](https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/comments/n2hhhn/23_the_ultimate_dd_guide_to_the_moon_crazy_melon/)
|
||||
|
||||
- HOW AND WHY TO BANKRUPT COMPANIES
|
||||
|
||||
- QUICK RECAP MIXING GME IN:
|
||||
|
||||
- THE MASSIVE REAL ESTATE SCAM!
|
||||
|
||||
- KENNY SCAMMING AROUND THE WORLD
|
||||
|
||||
- WHAT HAPPENS AFTER THE COMPANY GOES BANKRUPT??
|
||||
|
||||
- THE PANDEMIC STIMULUS: The beginning of the end of Kenny
|
||||
|
||||
- KENNY'S FUCK UP!!
|
||||
|
||||
PART 3
|
||||
|
||||
- THE ENDGAME: INEVITABLE! NO FUD
|
||||
|
||||
- SUMMARY
|
||||
|
||||
- TL;DR1:
|
||||
|
||||
- BURRY CONCERN: HYPERINFLATION
|
||||
|
||||
- LIBOR to SOFR
|
||||
|
||||
- TL;DR2 :
|
||||
|
||||
---------------------------------------- CONTINUE!!
|
||||
|
||||
PART 3
|
||||
|
||||
---------------------------------------
|
||||
|
||||
NEW!!!!
|
||||
|
||||
KENNY KENNY KENNETH: A little bit of history..
|
||||
|
||||
"Kenny, Kenny.... Let's all learn a little about Kenny past. Kenneth Cordele Griffin was born October 15, 1968. For a majority of his life he attended Boca Raton Community High School. It was a public school, where he was the head of the finance club... No, actually he was president of Math Club.
|
||||
|
||||
His investing career actually was initiated at the Cabot House as an undergraduate at Haaaaarvard. He must have learned to pay off the right people as he was able to get a satellite dish placed on the roof. His initial ride was with convertible bonds, with was powered from his late grandma to the tune of 265 K. Not a bad chunk of change to begin your investing career. So where did Ken break out &amp;amp; how did he do it? Well no other way than to short stock and have the stock market crash of '87.
|
||||
|
||||
Kenny pushin' them shorts this whole time. It's too cold to be wearin' shorts in those Chicago winters. Da' Frostbite appears to be setting in."
|
||||
|
||||
<https://www.chicagomag.com/Chicago-Magazine/June-2011/The-File-on-Citadels-Ken-Griffin/>
|
||||
|
||||
FOOL ME ONCE..It's on me! FOOL ME TWICE..Really? *Courtesy of that amazing silverback, you know who!*
|
||||
|
||||
---------------------------------------
|
||||
|
||||
THE ENDGAME: INEVITABLE! NO FUD
|
||||
|
||||
Kenny now is trapped. Now we known his game!!
|
||||
|
||||
We also know he IS SHORTING THE the 0.01%, the government and the economy!!!
|
||||
|
||||
Why is Kenny want to do all this?
|
||||
|
||||
THIS IS VERY IMPORTANT!!!
|
||||
|
||||
He wants to be THE KING!! To big to be touched!
|
||||
|
||||
He always wanted to be a bank and be part of the 0.01%
|
||||
|
||||
Putting my Tin Hat on this might sound crazy but.... It does align with Kenny goals!
|
||||
|
||||
Why to move to texas?
|
||||
|
||||
a) Because in texas he can apply for a banking license and become a bank (state banks have lot less regulations than federal banks)
|
||||
|
||||
b) scoop up all the cheap commercial real estate
|
||||
|
||||
c) becomes a massive player in the banking environment
|
||||
|
||||
WHY DOES KENNY WANTS TO BE A BANK SO BADLY?
|
||||
|
||||
A state bank is lot less regulated than a federal bank.
|
||||
|
||||
A BANK IS THE ONLY PIECE MISSING IN KENNY PUZZLE
|
||||
|
||||
This way he will eliminate the middle man, the bank does everything for his fuckery.
|
||||
|
||||
Having a bank means, he will be the one setting the price of the appraisals, also giving the loans, then also liquidating the asset and auctioning controlling the prices to buy everything at the price he wants.
|
||||
|
||||
Being able to always inflate the appraisals and pocket the difference everytime more and more!
|
||||
|
||||
And buying the real estate dirt cheap always! Perfect set up!
|
||||
|
||||
Ohhhh the banks game!!!
|
||||
|
||||
The 0.01% didn't let him in because he's too greedy and try to absorb everything, also he wasn't born into the 0.01%.** he doesn't have the surname or the generous gramma.
|
||||
|
||||
So then he said fuk it! I'm going to be the king and bigger than anybody!!
|
||||
|
||||
Ambition much Kenny?
|
||||
|
||||
Sorry Kenny!
|
||||
|
||||
You can't buy your way into the 0.01% club, you need to born with the surname and Griffin isn't cutting it.
|
||||
|
||||
Kenny no likey 0.01 percento nada!
|
||||
|
||||
He's been issuing years after years of those bad bad useless trust bonds and everyone buys them thinking are solid gold from Shitadel!
|
||||
|
||||
And pocketing so much real estate dirt cheap with all this fuckery!
|
||||
|
||||
HOW THE SEC CAN CATCH HIM?
|
||||
|
||||
Follow the transactions!!
|
||||
|
||||
Open those bonds full of naked shares that's are imaginary!!
|
||||
|
||||
Check on the Treasury (bills, notes and bonds) transactions, how many they have, how many they had and touch Kenny hands.
|
||||
|
||||
Also check where the money they used for Treasuries come from!
|
||||
|
||||
Why are they OVER SHORTING business?
|
||||
|
||||
Open your eyes and realize that they are targeting business that are real estate heavy for a reason!!
|
||||
|
||||
There is clear market manipulation CLEAR
|
||||
|
||||
There is clear MEDIA manipulation, hundreds of examples
|
||||
|
||||
Go and check the loan contracts and compare the loan values of appraisal given versus the real values of the properties!
|
||||
|
||||
Follow the money and follow the real estate.
|
||||
|
||||
Follow companies like this IOR (clearly the worse website I've seen). Only takes 1 minute to see this website to know this is a scam! And this company is managing a 51M market cap and can't even make a half decent website? PLEASE!!!
|
||||
|
||||
How dumb they think we are seriously!!
|
||||
|
||||
<https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/IOR>
|
||||
|
||||
<http://www.incomeopp-realty.com/management.html>
|
||||
|
||||
I 5 year old can make a better website than that!!
|
||||
|
||||
-------------
|
||||
|
||||
How's is the 0.01% is fighting back??
|
||||
|
||||
Creating a bubble too big to handle in GME so they can breaks the Citadel (Kenny and friends) and margin call them before the Federal Reserve implodes!!!
|
||||
|
||||
or exposing his scam and making rules and also by forcing him to cover the shorts!! it's all a lie and fake at the end of the day!
|
||||
|
||||
They need to come up with firewalls (801/002 and others) and ways to protect all the banks and members of the DTCC that are not part of the Shitadel and friends scam!! That's why all those rules have been coming in place.
|
||||
|
||||
Once everything is ready Shitadel and friends are gonna be forced to cover their shorts and naked shorts everywhere. (The bubble is so big that they are gonna get margin called, my floor is $15 million btw).
|
||||
|
||||
Kenny will have to cover institutional shorts, retail shorts, ETFs as well as those garbage trust bonds full of empty shells. Remember that Kenny need to return those borrowed naked IOUs and put a real share in every empty shell on peoples accounts and bonds!! But there is more! Don't forget the bets!
|
||||
|
||||
**Forgot about the FTD plus all the puts accumulated for years that expire 1/16, 4/16 (yes DFV day!!) and 7/17!!?? Thanks for the correction btw!!😍
|
||||
|
||||
That's another massive fukery scam going on and is HUGE! Federal Bank and friends need to break Citadel before Citadel breaks them, the economy and the government by scamming everyone and bankrupting companies!!
|
||||
|
||||
----------------------------
|
||||
|
||||
**NEW GOOOD! EDIT 2: Clues Clues Clues.......
|
||||
|
||||
A totally jacket MAGNIFICENT specimen of a APE dropped this amazing little jewel on the comment!!!
|
||||
|
||||
Fuuuuuuuuuukkkk.
|
||||
|
||||
This is your chance to DIG AND DIG
|
||||
|
||||
I'm a bit tired but you definitely can do your own post and DD about anything or all of this!!
|
||||
|
||||
"- Ashcraft, Adam B. and Gooriah, Kunal and Kermani, Amir, Does Skin‐in‐the‐Game Affect Security Performance? (March 1, 2017). Available at SSRN: [https://ssrn.com/abstract=2437574 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2437574](https://ssrn.com/abstract=2437574%C2%A0or%C2%A0http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2437574)
|
||||
|
||||
- Key paper: Griffin, John M. and Priest, Alex, Is COVID Revealing a CMBS Virus? (August 10, 2020). Available at SSRN: [https://ssrn.com/abstract=3671162 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3671162](https://ssrn.com/abstract=3671162%C2%A0or%C2%A0http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3671162)
|
||||
|
||||
- Shao, Ruoyu, Examination of Potential Misrepresentation in CMBS (June 11, 2015). Available at SSRN: [https://ssrn.com/abstract=2727038 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2727038](https://ssrn.com/abstract=2727038%C2%A0or%C2%A0http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2727038)
|
||||
|
||||
- Wong, Maisy, CMBS and Conflicts of Interest: Evidence from a Natural Experiment on Servicer Ownership (May 12, 2015). The Wharton School Research Paper No. 82, Jacobs Levy Equity Management Center for Quantitative Financial Research Paper, Available at SSRN: [https://ssrn.com/abstract=2605538 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2605538](https://ssrn.com/abstract=2605538%C2%A0or%C2%A0http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2605538) - CMBS and the Fed...is there a crisis brewing in the office? <https://www.ftserussell.com/research/cmbs-and-fedis-there-crisis-brewing-office>
|
||||
|
||||
- There are honestly maybe 6 more papers but I wanted to distill to these. Sites:
|
||||
|
||||
- The article that led me to every CMBS paper and ETF paper written: <https://theintercept.com/2021/04/20/wall-street-cmbs-dollar-general-ladder-capital/>
|
||||
|
||||
- CMBS Disputes on the Horizon? - <https://www.jdsupra.com/legalnews/cmbs-disputes-on-the-horizon-april-2021-9296023/>
|
||||
|
||||
- Increases in forbearance agreements: <https://www.alston.com/en/insights/publications/2020/04/forbearance-agreements-in-the-age-of-covid-19/>
|
||||
|
||||
- Issuance Activity and Interconnectedness in the CMBS Market - <https://www.sec.gov/files/DERA_WP_Knyazeva-Lin-Park_IssuanceActivityInterconnectednessCMBS%20.pdf>
|
||||
|
||||
- Trepp, a group that measures CMBS delinquency rates, suddenly had a change of tone last year in their delinquency reporting and openly suggested in their April 2020 report that "it's time to throw the old way of looking at the data out the window". They've reported economically health numbers since then.
|
||||
|
||||
- Say what you will about the Kroll Bond Agency's shenanigans, but they had an interesting report in Jan '21.: [https://www.kbra.com/documents/report/43448/cmbs-trend-watch-december-2020"](https://www.kbra.com/documents/report/43448/cmbs-trend-watch-december-2020%E2%80%9D)
|
||||
|
||||
BOOM!!
|
||||
|
||||
Go NUTS APES!!!
|
||||
|
||||
Grab a shovel and start digging!!!! Someone has to do it, can be you!!
|
||||
|
||||
Another piece to keep digging!!
|
||||
|
||||
<https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/n2ov32/investigation_weekend_citadel_has_been_working/?utm_source=share&amp;utm_medium=ios_app&amp;utm_name=iossmf>
|
||||
|
||||
END OF THE EDIT2:
|
||||
|
||||
------------------------------------------------------
|
||||
|
||||
SUMMARY
|
||||
|
||||
Holy fuc%#ing shit!!!
|
||||
|
||||
Apes are the last line of defense!!!!! PROTECT THE ECONOMY FROM PREDATOR KENNY G!!!
|
||||
|
||||
Now remember, when was the last time Uncle Sam didn't get his money? I can't remember.. Because Uncle Sam always gets his money and he's coming for Kenny and our tendies!!
|
||||
|
||||
All of them!! This is Citadel (Kenny and friends) vs the DTCC, Federal Reserve and the banks and the PLANET OF THE APEEEEEES!!
|
||||
|
||||
Im seriously JACKED TO THE TITS!!
|
||||
|
||||
I wouldn't be surprised if Kenny is in the deep with something around 2000%+ SI no joke.
|
||||
|
||||
Remember Trump calling Ken out in his speech? Kenny is hiding all his money somewhere. Now we know where: art, real estate, and more. Whose money? *The Federal Reserve and retail's money!* So far he's been kicking the cans [with fukery like this](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/mzgtvx/a_method_for_hiding_ftds_that_uses_the_109mil/).
|
||||
|
||||
Kenny and Citadel have liquidity to fight for now, but the machine stopped printing. Now it's just matter of time, and some MELON just unfolded the entire fuckery!
|
||||
|
||||
As an aside/addendum to all this...but for the sake of not making this long post even longer...
|
||||
|
||||
Im making post 2 on GME subs.
|
||||
|
||||
Next part will talk about something as important that is change from LIBOR to SOFR as well as *The Big Short's* Michael Burry's warnings on hyperinflation.
|
||||
|
||||
This will be a part of the world history, in the end I think the economy will be alright thanks to ape's stimulation, dont be scared ([READ PART 2](https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/comments/n286u2/22_the_ultimate_dd_guide_to_the_moon_crazy_melon/)).
|
||||
|
||||
----------------------------
|
||||
|
||||
TL;DR 1: Kenny is in big trouble for trying to scam the big big money (bigger money than Bezos, Gates and Musk combined) and everyone else to own the banks/Federal Reserve. Machine no printing for him anymore so he's been drained and his game uncovered. Apes need to be patient and keep BUYING AND HOLDING!!! The end is near.
|
||||
|
||||
----------------------------------
|
||||
|
||||
BURRY CONCERN: HYPERINFLATION
|
||||
|
||||
This is quite a handful matter to talk about, I encourage you to do your own research cuz i might be wrong or this might be incomplete.
|
||||
|
||||
But im gonna give it a go! FOR YOU MY AMAZING APES!
|
||||
|
||||
Dr Michael Burry (we all remember him for predicting the 2008 housing market collapse and the big short (Christian bale - Batman!!))
|
||||
|
||||
He has been warning us for a while about a highly probably hyperinflation
|
||||
|
||||
Quote from the [article](https://www.businessinsider.com.au/big-short-michael-burry-warren-buffett-inflation-dangers-warning-investors-2021-2?r=US&amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;IR=T):
|
||||
|
||||
"Burry has been sounding the alarm on inflation. He warned investors last week to "prepare for inflation" as the US economy reopens and receives a fresh round of stimulus. He also compared America's current trajectory to Germany's path to hyperinflation in the 1920s."
|
||||
|
||||
<https://www.businessinsider.com.au/big-short-michael-burry-warren-buffett-inflation-dangers-warning-investors-2021-2?r=US&amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;IR=T>
|
||||
|
||||
The effects of inflation causes different ripple effects, usually increases the banks interest rates reducing the amount of demand of loans, among many many other side effects.
|
||||
|
||||
Also causes products such as goods or services to rise. That will reduce the buying power of a currency.
|
||||
|
||||
---- CURRENCY BUYING POWER AND DEPRECIATION
|
||||
|
||||
Imagine you having $5 and being able to buy a train ticket for $3 and an ice cream for $2.
|
||||
|
||||
When inflation rises, means that the buying power of your money is gonna be reduced, now the train ticket is $3.50 and the ice cream is $2.30, suddenly with your $5 you can only get the train ticket and you are short $0.80 for the ice cream :((.
|
||||
|
||||
---- RIPPLE IN THE MORTGAGE LIKE 2008
|
||||
|
||||
The ripples effect also affects other things like loans or mortgages.
|
||||
|
||||
If you have a subprime loan or mortgage with adjustable rates (this mortgages where the ones that caused the 2008 housing collapse trough swaps) and the interests rates of the banks go up, suddenly my mortgage payments will go up, a lot of people that doesn't have enough money to pay that different will stop paying and the mortgages will default.
|
||||
|
||||
This affects on auto loans, student loans and more.
|
||||
|
||||
Well... with hyperinflation... like the prefix hyper says, it's BIGGER! So imagine that scenario bigger.
|
||||
|
||||
Possibly worse that 2008!!! And the rates and indexes like the SP500 look high.
|
||||
|
||||
<https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/mq2iam/just_hold_on_tight/?utm_source=share&amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;utm_medium=ios_app&amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;utm_name=iossmf>
|
||||
|
||||
Seems scary right? It's not!!
|
||||
|
||||
Check one of my posts for 2 weeks ago talking about this (I made it when I didn't know as much so dont hit me too hard on that one!! :P)
|
||||
|
||||
<https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/mqmj5e/the_how_is_this_gonna_play_out_game_my_prediction/?utm_source=share&amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;utm_medium=ios_app&amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;utm_name=iossmf>
|
||||
|
||||
Everything is going to be fine and if something this is very healthy for the economy.
|
||||
|
||||
The best thing that we need right now is to stop Kenny from creating bubbles of fake shares everywhere!! Its a parasite inside the market!
|
||||
|
||||
Let's keep going, gets better and better! Read my TL;DR further down.
|
||||
|
||||
* * * * *
|
||||
|
||||
EDIT 4: WARNING WARNING ON ETFs STREET!!
|
||||
|
||||
"ETFs are linked like a web. We've had two flash crashes amplified by them in the last 11 years, and their behavior during last year's pandemic accelerated the crash. CMBS are potentially a bowling ball that's going to crash through the spider web of ETFs."
|
||||
|
||||
Thank you you beautiful ape for this info, you know who!!
|
||||
|
||||
Check this key article: <https://theintercept.com/2021/04/20/wall-street-cmbs-dollar-general-ladder-capital/>
|
||||
|
||||
Check this key research paper: Is COVID Revealing a CMBS Virus? <https://ssrn.com/abstract=3671162>"
|
||||
|
||||
BIG WARNING FELLOWS!! EMBRACE FOR IMPACT!
|
||||
|
||||
Rocky ride to the moon, but we are getting there don't be scared!
|
||||
|
||||
------------------------------------
|
||||
|
||||
LIBOR to SOFR
|
||||
|
||||
Take all this this a grain of salt, Probably make a couple of mistakes. [READ THE CHAOS THEORY DD](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/mseyai/chaos_theory_the_final_connection/) to have the proper DD about this. (recommend the whole saga!!)
|
||||
|
||||
Changes from Libor to SOFR were meant to happen in 2022, but guess what?
|
||||
|
||||
They pushed to to June 2021!!!
|
||||
|
||||
<https://webstorage.paulhastings.com/Documents/PDFs/timeline-for-libor-transition.pdf?sfvrsn=363ea8ab_2>
|
||||
|
||||
This is massive!! Why?
|
||||
|
||||
Banks used LIBOR to manipulate their self created and self reported interest rates in order to be favorable and give away money left right and center. Where did tons of that money go? To HEDGEFUNDS!!!
|
||||
|
||||
They borrowed money from banks for almost no interest rates no matter how the economy and inflation was, including during an unprecedented pandemic!!! For what? SHORTING Kenny style!
|
||||
|
||||
Wtf??
|
||||
|
||||
Now you wonder why during a pandemic the whole market was "healthy" and up and growing right?? Inflating business with naked shares...
|
||||
|
||||
Using the same shitadel strategy but with money from the banks and washing everything trough citadel MM, trust bonds and dumping all the garbage in the ETFs and the trust bonds buyers.
|
||||
|
||||
Always betting in bankrupting the companies and then rebuying them to own pieces of the banks/federal reserve.
|
||||
|
||||
So what all this changes mean?
|
||||
|
||||
With Libor banks suppose to self regulate and self report and give interest rates to their customer (business, institutions, people or the government) according to how the economy is, indicators like inflation among other things. [Read about it here.](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/l/libor.asp#:~:text=LIBOR%20is%20administered%20by%20the,data%2Ddriven%2C%20layered%20method)
|
||||
|
||||
The banks have been manipulating this FOR A LONG TIME. Especially after 2008.
|
||||
|
||||
I guess they wanted to recoup their loses and because being HOLDINGS now, they wanted to be bigger and bigger.
|
||||
|
||||
BOOM! The greed
|
||||
|
||||
They got too greedy.... :( Even during the pandemic they gave away loans at very low and favorable rates, it was more than obvious that the economy wasn't right... they needed to raise the rates!
|
||||
|
||||
They didn't!!
|
||||
|
||||
Now they are full of this bad bad loans with subpremiun and adjustable rates, but everything was ok as long as they kept on showing those fake interest rates right?
|
||||
|
||||
SOFR arrives!!
|
||||
|
||||
SOFR was almost implemented on 2019 and almost caused a massive crisis!! BUBBLE ALERT!
|
||||
|
||||
why?
|
||||
|
||||
Lets find out what SOFR means
|
||||
|
||||
[What is SOFR?](https://www.investopedia.com/secured-overnight-financing-rate-sofr-4683954)
|
||||
|
||||
<https://www.jdsupra.com/legalnews/libor-transition-to-sofr-a-brief-9557503/>
|
||||
|
||||
Thanks to a fellow ape in the comments for providing this link ❤️
|
||||
|
||||
The secured overnight financing rate, or SOFR, is an influential interest rate that banks use to price U.S. dollar-denominated [derivatives](https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/12/derivative.asp) and loans. The daily secured overnight financing rate (SOFR) is based on transactions in the [Treasury](https://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/073113/introduction-treasury-securities.asp) repurchase market, where investors offer banks overnight loans backed by their bond assets.
|
||||
|
||||
So the interest rates are not going to be self reported by the banks, but instead the government is going to provide those rates to the banks based on the repo market.
|
||||
|
||||
They believe is a better option than letting the banks manipulate the rates for their advantage.
|
||||
|
||||
This magnificent ape made a really good post about it and thats how I found out about this problem, all credit to him!!
|
||||
|
||||
<https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/mseyai/chaos_theory_the_final_connection/>
|
||||
|
||||
FROM THE CHAOS THEORY:
|
||||
|
||||
Introducing SOFR (Secured Overnight Financing Rate)!!!!! This is a MASSIVE 200 trillion dollar transition that will take place over the next few years.
|
||||
|
||||
OH and it almost imploded the entire fucking market the first time it was attempted to be implemented back in 2019 <https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/notes/feds-notes/what-happened-in-money-markets-in-september-2019-20200227.htm>
|
||||
|
||||
[Definition](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/t/treasurybond.asp)
|
||||
|
||||
brilliant ape make the [CHAOS THEORY](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/mseyai/chaos_theory_the_final_connection/) and explains a lot of what im saying here. A MUST READ
|
||||
|
||||
<https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/mseyai/chaos_theory_the_final_connection/>
|
||||
|
||||
I'll let the rest to the CHAOS THEORY, very well explained.
|
||||
|
||||
That's why Kenny is shorting the TREASURY BILLS, NOTES ands BOND!
|
||||
|
||||
He wants to profit from the banks and government to be insolvent and default!!
|
||||
|
||||
QUOTED FROM CHAOS THEORY:
|
||||
|
||||
As time progresses I believe we will see more evidence of multiple parties attempting to deleverage their positions before 2023. Coincidentally GameStop has just paid off all their debt that was due that exact year.
|
||||
|
||||
So this becomes a two pronged problem;
|
||||
|
||||
1. Assets are being re-hypothecated which are being used as collateral
|
||||
|
||||
2. Banks are providing absurd interest rates off the old LIBOR system instead of SOFR; this has resulted in the taking on a position that will be extremely difficult to get out of.
|
||||
|
||||
As we can see they're fighting against these changes through politics, but it appears they've brought in Gary Gensler to kick some ass.
|
||||
|
||||
We are going to be fine, a few blows to the economy and crisis but everything is going to turn down and de leverage. ----------
|
||||
|
||||
EDIT 3: Check the latest SEC speech, they seem to be focusing a lot on Libor!!! We might be onto something.... Or I'm I just a cOnSpIrAtOr QaNoN sHiLl!!!
|
||||
|
||||
SEC speech on 28 th of April!!
|
||||
|
||||
<https://www.sec.gov/news/speech/werewolves-of-change>
|
||||
|
||||
-----------------------------------
|
||||
|
||||
IM JACKED TO THE TITS!
|
||||
|
||||
TL;DR2 : This is my latest perception and final conclusion of this beautiful saga!
|
||||
|
||||
Well.... Battle of GME is basically going to bankrupt citadel. BOOM!
|
||||
|
||||
It's going be the biggest wealth distribution in history. BOOM!
|
||||
|
||||
There is going to be a domino and a ripple effect. (It's not all about GME, GME is just the tip of the iceberg).
|
||||
|
||||
Kenny has been creating bubbles of money naked with things that does exist to Scam business and retail (among others). Its going to burst, when the bubbles burst, will have repercussions everywhere.
|
||||
|
||||
A lot of tendies are going to the people. That will create a lot of money going around, not just for apes but for everyone, apes will be buying things and paying off their debts and all that.
|
||||
|
||||
That will help reducing the leverage.
|
||||
|
||||
Hyperinflation is going to hit, but the government is going to be able to take it and absorb a big part trough (TIPS) <https://www.investopedia.com/terms/t/tips.asp>
|
||||
|
||||
People and apes are not going to care much about the raise in pricing (inflation) because we will have money and wealth around, huge economy stimulus (Thanks you citadel for the tendies!).
|
||||
|
||||
A huge chunk of money will come to the banks initially, people paying their credit card and loans and mortgages.
|
||||
|
||||
Then tax will come and Uncle Sam will get half of our tendies (if helps the economy not to boom boom im fine!).
|
||||
|
||||
Then things will be stable then and hopefully lot cleaner after.
|
||||
|
||||
This is necessary and healthy to Happen, stock is trading sideways to prepare for all that.
|
||||
|
||||
This is why I think is low volume and trading sideways lately
|
||||
|
||||
Stock is trading sideways because RC needed to to pay the debt and be free from banks leverage.
|
||||
|
||||
Also gather money for the transformation, ! he already did !.
|
||||
|
||||
Also trading still low allow more Apes to jump in!! RC care for us and everyone. Ohhh PAPA RC.
|
||||
|
||||
The DTCC needs time to firewall and protect the banks from Kenny and friends predators.
|
||||
|
||||
Once everything is in place and the scam is suppressed, the huge winners are going be the banks and the federal reserve. But us apes going to ride the rollercoaster all along getting tendies!!
|
||||
|
||||
I won't be surprised if the catalyst is RC announcing a recall, investigation or a crypto dividend on the meeting.
|
||||
|
||||
My smooth brain tells me the catalyst is the Libor to SOFR, always been for me.
|
||||
|
||||
The voting is big because they will have grounds to show the amount of shorting and fukery.
|
||||
|
||||
So be patient and don't be scared. HOLD THE LINE!
|
||||
|
||||
This needs to be done and Kenny needs to be stopped because is making bubbles everywhere in the market is damaging shareholders, the companies and THE ECONOMY!!
|
||||
|
||||
----------------------------------------------------
|
||||
|
||||
Thanks!!
|
||||
|
||||
EDIT 1: Kenny Kenny Kenny...... some history of Kenny!!!
|
||||
|
||||
EDIT 2: Clues and pieces so you can DIG DIG and make your own DD!!! It's time to wake up and keep this baby rolling!!
|
||||
|
||||
EDIT 3: check on the new SEC speech on 28 th of April!!
|
||||
|
||||
<https://www.sec.gov/news/speech/werewolves-of-change>
|
||||
|
||||
Thanks to magnificent [u/sharkbaitlol](https://www.reddit.com/u/sharkbaitlol/) for providing the info.
|
||||
|
||||
You guys check his work THE CHAOS THEORIES that's a must read DD!
|
||||
|
||||
EDIT 4: WARNING WARNING ON ETFs!!!
|
||||
|
||||
Look at this magnificent ape work! Holy shit....
|
||||
|
||||
<https://www.reddit.com/r/DDintoGME/comments/n0i9tw/the_etf_seesaw_part_1/>
|
||||
|
||||
*None of this is financial advice. I'm a retarded ape just rambling words. I'm crazy and a horrible man. So don't believe or listen to anything I say. Don't trust me and do your own research and fact check, I did and I'm jacked to the tits!!*
|
||||
|
||||
EDIT 5: I'm I wrong????
|
||||
|
||||
<https://www.propublica.org/article/whistleblower-wall-street-has-engaged-in-widespread-manipulation-of-mortgage-funds>
|
||||
|
||||
<https://www.propublica.org/article/whistleblower-wall-street-has-engaged-in-widespread-manipulation-of-mortgage-funds>
|
||||
|
||||
[PART 1](https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/comments/n2hgxq/13_the_ultimate_dd_guide_to_the_moon_crazy_melon/)
|
||||
|
||||
[PART 2](https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/comments/n2hhhn/23_the_ultimate_dd_guide_to_the_moon_crazy_melon/)
|
||||
|
||||
BONUS!!: Remember "I am not a CAT!"?
|
||||
|
||||
<https://financial-dictionary.thefreedictionary.com/CAT>
|
||||
|
||||
WE ARE THE LAST LINE OF DEFENSE AGAINST THIS SCAM! HOLD THE LINE!!!!
|
||||
|
||||
This is not financial advice at all! Just a crazy melon 🍉 playing with some crayons. I eat the sometimes yummmm
|
||||
|
||||
💎🙌------> 🦍🦧🚀🌝!!
|
||||
|
||||
If you are not done reading....
|
||||
|
||||
I recommend this work.....
|
||||
|
||||
[u/atobitt](https://www.reddit.com/u/atobitt/) good DD to inform yourself
|
||||
|
||||
[u/sharkbaitlol](https://www.reddit.com/u/sharkbaitlol/) chaos theories connect a lot of dots
|
||||
|
||||
[u/toffis](https://www.reddit.com/r/gme_capitalists/comments/mvwc9k/financial_system_historical_ownership_and/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf)
|
||||
|
||||
Now this chart does look that crazy now?
|
||||
|
||||
<https://www.docdroid.net/Q8qCCvM/rgme-pokes-at-kenny-g-pdf>
|
@ -0,0 +1,50 @@
|
||||
What We Do In The Shadows, Part 1
|
||||
=================================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :----: | :----: |
|
||||
| [u/SubParMarioBro](https://www.reddit.com/user/SubParMarioBro/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/comments/or91vf/what_we_do_in_the_shadows_part_1/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
[🔬 DD 📊](https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/search?q=flair_name%3A%22%F0%9F%94%AC%20DD%20%F0%9F%93%8A%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||
What We Do In The Shadows, Part 1
|
||||
|
||||
Regulatory Arbitrage
|
||||
|
||||
Ape Mode: SHF (Shitty hedge funds) can hide their short positions and FTDs by using unconventional international lending schemes. They've done this extensively on other tickers in the past decade. The reason the short interest and FTDs "dropped" earlier this year is because they're playing the same game with GME today.
|
||||
|
||||
TL;DR Mode: Two of the most controversial questions since the end of January have been: "What happened to the short interest?" and "What happened to the fail-to-delivers?" There's been a lot of good DD aimed at these questions but based on FINRA and SEC documents I think I've found the smoking gun. Hedge funds know all the loopholes, and it turns out that there's a loophole they've abused extensively in the past that hides short interest, fail-to-delivers, and allows endless rehypothecation that wouldn't be legal according to the SEC. The trick is to (instead of doing a conventional locate and borrow) to use something called an arranged financing program with foreign prime brokers. Everything ends up getting hidden as the transactions cross international borders and don't get reported properly on either side of the pond. They also get to take advantage of rules in other countries that are much more favorable to them than the ones here.
|
||||
|
||||
Too Long Mode: I started making forward progress after looking through the recent FINRA Notice 21-19, regarding potential changes to short interest reporting, where they have the following section:
|
||||
|
||||
<https://www.finra.org/rules-guidance/notices/21-19>
|
||||
|
||||
> Loan Obligations Resulting From Arranged Financing: FINRA understands that members may offer arranged financing programs (sometimes called "enhanced lending" or "short arranging products") through which a customer can borrow shares from the firm's domestic or foreign affiliate and use those shares to close out a short position in the customer's account. FINRA is considering requiring members to report as short interest outstanding stock borrows by customers in their arranged financing programs to better reflect actual short sentiment in the stock.
|
||||
|
||||
FINRA is saying that rather than doing a conventional borrow to deliver on a short, a SHF could use an arranged financing / enhanced lending program to do the borrow, and this magically doesn't need to be reported as a short. FINRA is saying that functionally it is a short, but through the magic of "we wrote the rules" it doesn't get reported that way. Cool!
|
||||
|
||||
I looked at GME back in January when all the shorts magically disappeared and I said "hey, maybe there's something to this." So I started researching enhanced lending and arranged financing and there's unfortunately not a huge amount written about this that Google can easily find, yet a few of the things I've read suggest it's not a particularly exotic subject in hedge fund circles.
|
||||
|
||||
But I found this document on the SEC website which is amazing and even though it's written about something happening to different tickers 5-10 years ago it perfectly captures what we're seeing with GME today.
|
||||
|
||||
<https://www.sec.gov/comments/s7-11-15/s71115-19.pdf>
|
||||
|
||||
So this is a response to several questions about ETFs, and the first bit is about liquidity issues in ETFs and isn't very exciting for us. Then it gets into chronic extreme short selling in ETFs. The author demonstrates the absurdity of the size of the short position. Certain ETFs were so heavily shorted that institutional ownership (reported periodically on SEC filings) would sometimes be as high as 700% of the outstanding shares. So the shares outstanding has been shorted at least six times over, just as evidenced by the size of the institutional position. One key difference is that we have a good idea of how heavily shorted these funds were because institutions were buying them heavily and reporting many times as many shares as should exist. With GME we have a lot of DD indicating that retail owns the float multiple times but it's much harder for us to prove, let alone pinpoint the size of this position, as it's not reported.
|
||||
|
||||
It gets better though. So we've got these ETFs that are comically shorted. 700% institutional ownership should mean a 600% short interest at the bare minimum, right? 100% for the real shares and 600% for the synthetic ones. What does the FINRA short interest report show though? A fraction of that. So we have a stock with a demonstrably massive short position, but FINRA says that short interest is much lower than what we observe based on actual ownership. Remember that FINRA notice I quoted near the top? This document I found at the SEC explains how this happens. Rather than doing a conventional locate - borrow the SHF uses an enhanced lending / arranged financing program to borrow the share. This has several benefits:
|
||||
|
||||
-Your short position does not get included on the FINRA short interest report.
|
||||
|
||||
-The enhanced lending / arranged financing programs utilize prime brokers in the UK. Unlike the US where rehypothecation is a bad word, the UK is very laissez-faire about it. So we can wildly rehypothecate everything we can get our hands on.
|
||||
|
||||
-FTDs also disappear because even if they're happening they end up recorded off book and overseas, and not reported to American regulators. The funds being discussed in the SEC document had very low FTD rates despite having an insanely large short position with nowhere close to enough shares to cover the long positions. Sound familiar?
|
||||
|
||||
The SEC document explains:
|
||||
|
||||
> One of the reasons the NSCC data is not accounting for an adequate number of fails of U.S. securities is because some large short positions are book-entered with special financing conditions (sometimes referenced as enhanced lending, enhanced or arranged financing, with re- hypothecation as a transactional component). Most special financings are book-entered in offshore jurisdictions and accounted for outside of the U.S. national clearance and settlement system (DTCC/NSCC). The risks from re-hypothecation and similarly named practices have been building since the last financial crisis. These types of transactions appear to have been misunderstood by regulators, perhaps because they were misled regarding the nature and magnitude of the activity. The re-hypothecation process is well understood by sophisticated U.S. clearing firms and was developed to evade U.S. laws, rules and regulations. Arranged and enhanced financing are typically executed through divisions of the same clearing firm and entail loaning/borrowing synthetic assets/shares to/from another affiliated branch.
|
||||
|
||||
So we have here a mechanism that explains two of the biggest questions about GME. Where did the short interest disappear to? Where did the FTDs disappear to? It also provide a mechanism for the sort of infinite rehypothecation that would be against the rules in US markets but sure seems to be at play in how heavily shorted GME is.
|
||||
|
||||
It's not surprising that a loophole like this exists in our regulatory structure. The rules are written in order to appear to take a strong stand against market manipulation and abuse while allowing these sorts of gimmicky backdoor tricks to persist so that nothing really changes. And it's not surprising that hedge funds would resort to this specific loophole to hide their short position in GME, after all this is far from their first rodeo using this loophole to abuse short selling rules. Companies like Citadel brag that they make their money off arbitrage. I suppose they figure that playing fast and loose with the rules via regulatory arbitrage is the same thing.
|
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Reference in New Issue
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