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@ -1,9 +0,0 @@
|
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# I Am Not a Financial Advisor PDF
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [@iamnotafinadv](https://www.twitter.com/iamnotafinadv) | [Source](https://iamnotafinancialadvisor.com/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
[GMEv14.zip](https://github.com/verymeticulous/wikAPEdia/files/6764891/GMEv14.zip)
|
@ -66,8 +66,6 @@
|
||||
| [Superstonk](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/) | | 🚨 [Superstonk Emergency Broadcast](https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCI4EET9NJPWxUuXGlG6fxPA) 🚨 |
|
||||
| [u/DeepFuckingValue](https://www.reddit.com/user/DeepFuckingValue/) | [@TheRoaringKitty](https://twitter.com/theroaringkitty?lang=en) | [Roaring Kitty](https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC0patpmwYbhcEUap0bTX3JQ) |
|
||||
| Ryan Cohen | [@ryancohen](https://twitter.com/ryancohen) | |
|
||||
| [RedChessQueen](https://www.reddit.com/user/redchessqueen99/) | [@RedChessQueen99](https://twitter.com/RedChessQueen99) | |
|
||||
| [Rensole](https://www.reddit.com/user/rensole/) | [@rensole](https://twitter.com/ryancohen) | |
|
||||
| [HeyItsPixel](https://www.reddit.com/user/HeyItsPixeL/) | [@heyitspixel69](https://twitter.com/heyitspixel69) | |
|
||||
| [PinkCatsOnAcid](https://www.reddit.com/user/pinkcatsonacid/) | [@PinkCatsOnAcid](https://twitter.com/PinkCatsOnAcid) | |
|
||||
| [Dennis Kelleher](https://www.reddit.com/user/WallSt4MainSt/) | [@BetterMarkets](https://twitter.com/BetterMarkets) | |
|
||||
|
@ -0,0 +1,44 @@
|
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One of the addresses associated with the GameStop NFT had a transaction today. Any wrinkle brains able to tell what it was used for?
|
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====================================================================================================================================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/clawesome](https://www.reddit.com/user/clawesome/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/ogjbcy/one_of_the_addresses_associated_with_the_gamestop/) |
|
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|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
[etherscan.io/addres...](https://etherscan.io/address/0x10B16eEDe03cF73CbF44e4BFFFa3e6BFf36F1Fad)
|
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|
||||
[Question ❓](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22Question%20%E2%9D%93%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
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|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
## Relevant Comment/Answer by [u/nuclear-falcon](https://www.reddit.com/user/nuclear-falcon/)
|
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|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
**Official Gamestop NFT Contract "GME NFT":**
|
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|
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0x13374200c29C757FDCc72F15Da98fb94f286d71e
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**Was created by "Creator":**
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0x10b16eede03cf73cbf44e4bfffa3e6bff36f1fad
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|
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"Creator" is the account in question that OP linked.
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|
||||
*Creator is a contract itself!* If you go to the contract's [etherscan page](https://etherscan.io/address/0x10b16eede03cf73cbf44e4bfffa3e6bff36f1fad#readProxyContract) -> Contract -> "Read Contract as Proxy" you can get a little bit of information. The NAME field is "Gnosis Safe" which is a service in the form of a contract to force multiple people in a company to sign off on transactions before they happen, which is how you keep crypto at a company safe. [Here](https://help.gnosis-safe.io/en/articles/3876456-what-is-gnosis-safe) is a brief overview from their website.
|
||||
|
||||
If you go to the Creator address, you'll see a transaction from ~8 hours ago and then one that happened ~5 minutes ago (all from the time of writing). The "Events" tab on etherscan allows you to see which functions were executed.
|
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|
||||
Transaction from ~8 hours ago was to add "Add Owner" function execution. I think this means they added another person who can sign off on transactions.
|
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|
||||
Transaction from ~5 minutes ago executed 2 functions:
|
||||
|
||||
Remove Owner - to Remove a person/wallet from signing off on transactions
|
||||
|
||||
Add Owner - same as the one from ~8 hours ago that adds someone
|
||||
|
||||
**What I think this means:**
|
||||
|
||||
The NFTeam is adding new people who have rights to sign off on transactions with the official GameStop company crypto. This is a security measure that means no single person at the company can control/steal/send crypto to anyone else
|
@ -0,0 +1,59 @@
|
||||
An explanation of 'launchDate' 7/14 - NFT - EIP1559
|
||||
===================================================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/Hey_Madie](https://www.reddit.com/user/Hey_Madie/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/oh7ugx/an_explanation_of_launchdate_714_nft_eip1559/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
|
||||
[Education 👨🏫 | Data 🔢](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22Education%20%F0%9F%91%A8%E2%80%8D%F0%9F%8F%AB%20%7C%20Data%20%F0%9F%94%A2%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||
To define, the Gamestop NFT had a 'launchDate' field in the code that defined to 7/14/2021. This is/was referencing the now rescheduled Ehtereum network upgrades to EIP-1559. The update will now occur on 8/4/21 at block 12,965,000, between 13:00 UTC and 17:00 UTC.
|
||||
|
||||
For the record, they did not indicate or reference an actual release date for the NFT, but they did acknowledge that they want to get it right and they are not taking any shortcuts. So we hold-fast! It'll be worth it!
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/40ifzxp00aa71.png?width=591&format=png&auto=webp&s=1c07ad34c18c394d28e317761151bf682b65eb88)
|
||||
|
||||
Ethereum is set to go through a lot of changes in the future, first with the London hardfork introducing EIP-1559.
|
||||
|
||||
EIP-1559 is an Ethereum Improvement Proposal that, along with four other EIPs, will signal the start of Ethereum's 'Triple Halvening' event.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/jf99luysp9a71.png?width=598&format=png&auto=webp&s=edb0d225f8ed1869dcaa101bd99ef4353db668ab)
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/naajapyaw9a71.png?width=680&format=png&auto=webp&s=4aa295886b39a13d02b967b6011d79b4d3fb4a7e)
|
||||
|
||||
This 'tip' is then given to the Ethereum miner, while the base fee is burned, removing it from circulation. In explaining the reason for this burn, [EIP's authors said](https://eips.ethereum.org/EIPS/eip-1559):
|
||||
|
||||
> This ensures that only ETH can ever be used to pay for transactions on Ethereum, cementing the economic value of ETH within the Ethereum platform and reducing risks associated with miner extractable value (MEV). Additionally, this burn counterbalances Ethereum inflation while still giving the block reward and priority fee to miners. Finally, ensuring the miner of a block does not receive the base fee is important because it removes miner incentive to manipulate the fee in order to extract more fees from users.
|
||||
|
||||
What Will EIP-1559 Do For Ethereum Miners?
|
||||
|
||||
A collection of Ethereum miners and mining pools have voiced their opposition to EIP-1559. This has been collated in the [#STOPEIP1559 petition](https://stopeip1559.org/), led by Flexpool.
|
||||
|
||||
Explaining their opposition, the petition states: "[Burning transaction fees] dramatically reduces miners' earnings, people who invested their savings into supporting the Ethereum network."
|
||||
|
||||
Advertisement
|
||||
|
||||
Given EIP-1559 is yet to launch onto the mainnet, the reward changes for miners are currently only predictions, with the full impact unknown.
|
||||
|
||||
Of course, no matter the miners animosity to EIP-1559, this is a smaller change in comparison to the impact Ethereum 2.0 will have. The Eth2 upgrade,[ slated for release in 2022](https://www.gfinityesports.com/cryptocurrency/ethereum-2-release-date-eth2-roadmap-phases-is-ethereum-2-new-coin-serenity/), will see a full shift to [Ethereum staking](https://www.gfinityesports.com/cryptocurrency/ethereum-staking-what-is-it-how-to-stake-Eth2-ethereum-2-staking-rewards/) via a Proof-of-Stake algorithm.
|
||||
|
||||
Sources:
|
||||
|
||||
[Ethereum EIP-1559: Release Date, Meaning, And What EIP-1559 Will Do For Mining ETH](https://www.gfinityesports.com/cryptocurrency/ethereum-eip-1559-release-date-meaning-fees-london-hardfork-effect-on-mining-eth/)
|
||||
|
||||
[Ethereum price gears up for its upcoming 'Triple Halving'](https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/ethereum-price-gears-up-for-its-upcoming-triple-halving-202107071339)
|
||||
|
||||
[4 Common Misperceptions About Ethereum's EIP 1559 Upgrade](https://www.coindesk.com/4-myths-about-ethereum-eip-1559)
|
||||
|
||||
🦍Other community posts pertaining to this subject. 🧠 Together We Are Stronger! 🚀
|
||||
|
||||
Post about 1st tweet: <https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/oh5jjc/gamestop_nft_launch_date/>
|
||||
|
||||
Post about 2nd clarifying tweet: <https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/oh60ea/gme_nft_developler_clarifies_that_there_is_no_set/>
|
||||
|
||||
Post with both tweets and more discussion: <https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/oh613h/finestonematt_on_twitter_about_the_supposed/>
|
||||
|
||||
TL;DR: Gamestop Engineers verify that the launch date was referencing the now rescheduled upgrade to the Ethereum network to EIP1559.
|
@ -0,0 +1,65 @@
|
||||
Why are we being left in the dark? Why all the cryptic tweets? Why doesn't Ryan Cohen just tell us what's up? ......Enter the Standstill Agreement that doesn't allow Ryan Cohen to speak openly about GameStop until 2022
|
||||
======================================================================================================================================================================================================================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/Ginger_Libra](https://www.reddit.com/user/Ginger_Libra/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/oh3ocf/why_are_we_being_left_in_the_dark_why_all_the/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
|
||||
[DD 👨🔬](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22DD%20%F0%9F%91%A8%E2%80%8D%F0%9F%94%AC%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||
January bag holder here. We used to talk about this more in the other subs and I felt like it was common knowledge. I'm not smart enough to have research this myself but I looked it up again because there seems to be a lot of shit talking and confusion.
|
||||
|
||||
Ryan Cohen and RC Ventures entered into a Standstill Agreement on January 10, 2021 that has a long list of provisions that essentially prohibits him from speaking out directly.
|
||||
|
||||
Specifically, he is not allowed to influence voting or board votes and another long list of activities until about March 1, 2022.
|
||||
|
||||
<https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1326380/000119380521000031/e620202_ex99-1.htm>
|
||||
|
||||
So for everyone wondering why things are quiet, this is why.
|
||||
|
||||
Here's the deal.
|
||||
|
||||
This week sucked. Next week is uncertain. The DTC/other colluders rules we've been waiting for don't appear to have made a difference in hedge fund fuckery. We took a beating.
|
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|
||||
I bought my first share at $350. I held to $38.
|
||||
|
||||
I want tendies. But I'm not fucking leaving over this. Never. I'm out when the share price looks big for Kenny and his pals, not when it looks big to me. That's the only way I'm selling.
|
||||
|
||||
And you know what? I trust Ryan Cohen. I know he has a plan. I know he will do right by us.
|
||||
|
||||
He isn't talking to us because he can't. But he is communicating. And it's going to be fine. Better than fine. It's going to be fucking glorious. Life altering.
|
||||
|
||||
It's coming. Changing corrupt financial systems and taking down evil villains ain't easy. That's why super hero's have movies about them. Shits hard.
|
||||
|
||||
It's Friday. Go fuck off. Have a tasty beverage. Get some sun on your face this weekend. Get laid if there is someone who will enthusiastically consent to fucking you. Or just willingly consent.
|
||||
|
||||
Tomorrow is a new week. NFT week. Could be nothing. Could be everything. Everything is coming.
|
||||
|
||||
In the meantime, dream your dreams about what you're going to do with your tendies.
|
||||
|
||||
I'm fixing this fucking planet I love so much. Apes are going to find a solution for climate change. I'm going to be a part of that movement. I'm making my plans.
|
||||
|
||||
You do you. There's lots of broken shit in this fucked up system.
|
||||
|
||||
Come back Monday ready to hype.
|
||||
|
||||
TL;DR: Papa Cohen can't say anything publicly until around March 1, 2022.
|
||||
|
||||
Wen moon? Soon moon.
|
||||
|
||||
Edit to add: because I am spelling everything out....remember, Kenny and his buddies aren't going down easily or we'd all be rich by now.
|
||||
|
||||
Everything needs to be above board so that GameStop and RC don't get sued. I'm sure they will get sued but the goal is to not have anything substantive behind it.
|
||||
|
||||
He also has to watch what he says to the SEC doesn't get him for market manipulation. He has to watch his mouth to protect us and protect our tendies.
|
||||
|
||||
Elon has gotten in trouble for this. And RC is smarter than Elon so he is walking a finer line.
|
||||
|
||||
Second edit: some of you seem to think the Standstill Agreement ends after he became 🪑👨. It does not and if it's amended or changed it would be filed with the SEC.
|
||||
|
||||
The Standstill Agreement protects GameStop from a hostile takeover. Hostile takeovers of corporate boards are a whole other post. This is a not so hostile takeover.
|
||||
|
||||
Other chairman and CEOs can speak out because they didn't buy shares to join a company. They don't have Standstill agreements.
|
@ -0,0 +1,95 @@
|
||||
T+21. The game of Hide & Seek is finally over. And while I'm at it I might as well try to prove how July 14th is going to become our new January 13th.
|
||||
======================================================================================================================================================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/JaboniThxDad](https://www.reddit.com/user/JaboniThxDad/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/DDintoGME/comments/ohm7uq/t21_the_game_of_hide_seek_is_finally_over_and/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
|
||||
[𝘜𝘯𝘷𝘦𝘳𝘪𝘧𝘪𝘦𝘥 𝘋𝘋](https://www.reddit.com/r/DDintoGME/search?q=flair_name%3A%22%F0%9D%98%9C%F0%9D%98%AF%F0%9D%98%B7%F0%9D%98%A6%F0%9D%98%B3%F0%9D%98%AA%F0%9D%98%A7%F0%9D%98%AA%F0%9D%98%A6%F0%9D%98%A5%20%F0%9D%98%8B%F0%9D%98%8B%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||
January 13th... What am I talking about?
|
||||
|
||||
January 13th is what I refer to as *Day 0*. This was *'the spike'* that caused the build-up to our January mini-squeeze. I'll explain everything as we move along chronologically but first, let's establish some patterns.
|
||||
|
||||
What happened in the 12 days prior to January 13th? Our volume had lows down to 4.9 million and highs up to 14.9 million. Also, our prices saw lows down to $17.08 and highs up to $21.97.
|
||||
|
||||
Then the 13th happened. Boom. 144 million volume in a single day. That's more than 1.5 times the volume of the previous 12 days *combined*. We opened at $20.42, reached a high of $38.65 and ended up closing at $31.40.
|
||||
|
||||
Then over the next 5 days we reached lows of $33.05, highs of $45.52 and on the 6th day we appeared to start going parabolic. That 6th day, we reached a high of $76.76, Day 7, a high of $159.18, Day 8... $150, Day 9... $380, Day 10... $483.
|
||||
|
||||
Don't worry. I won't go into as much detail going forward. I'm just trying to demonstrate why the above matters, especially the part where we appear to start going parabolic close to Day 6 after every spike.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/nxomkyjtyea71.jpg?width=1176&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=290b06fd0f9239546b84f49234f6256452182513)
|
||||
|
||||
Day 0 and its aftermath
|
||||
|
||||
January 25th
|
||||
|
||||
A lot of people lost faith in the 21-day cycle. I never did and I'll do my best to explain why. If you look at the chart, you can see what happened on the 25th of January, 7 days after our spike. I believe this is the day that short sellers trapped themselves into a cycle that would begin the creation of our glorious cup.
|
||||
|
||||
February 24th
|
||||
|
||||
Day 21. We hit 67.4 million volume on this day. The price opened at $44.70 and we reached both a high and a close of $91.71. This spike started the run-up to the peak of the left side of our cup. Once again, it appeared we started going parabolic around Day 6 and as of Day 10 we hit our March peak, the left side of our cup... $348.50. We consolidated in the days leading up to the 24th of February and did experience more volume on that day than any of the days leading up to it during our consolidation period but it was not as drastic as what had happened in January.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/qs18bxnuyea71.jpg?width=1175&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=fb7d2eee08e5c20c8e6ec8c0af871467c722967c)
|
||||
|
||||
February 24th volume & price spike preceded by lower volume and followed by sideways trading prior to a parabolic move
|
||||
|
||||
March 25th
|
||||
|
||||
Day 21. We hit 50.4 million volume on this day. The price opened at $123.49, we reached a high of $187.50 and closed at $183.75. We once again start experiencing consolidation from Day 1 to Day 5 and what happens on Day 6 when we normally end up going parabolic? A share offering of 3.5 million at-the-market is announced. Without this, we would have went parabolic and the cup would have been invalidated. *Welcome to the chess game.*
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/ojqf0ywvyea71.jpg?width=1182&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=a8505ff421d32b0646cc9fa7ea0f8a88daad1375)
|
||||
|
||||
This one is not like the others and for good reason
|
||||
|
||||
April 26th
|
||||
|
||||
Day 21. This is where people lost faith in the 21-day cycle. But they shouldn't have. Why? Remember that share offering announced on April 5th? Well, it was announced as completed at the end of trading on the 26th and I believe it re-established the 21-day cycle. Perfectly played. Yes, we're definitely watching a chess match. Check.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/ljv29v5zyea71.jpg?width=420&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=54d8dfdf54dd186fe8dc84d4f7295ff558b5dc5c)
|
||||
|
||||
I see you
|
||||
|
||||
May 25th
|
||||
|
||||
Day 21. 14.4 million volume. We opened at $181, reached a high of $217.11 and settled in with a close of $209.43. On Day 9 we reach the peak of the right side of our cup with a high of $344.66. What happens on Day 10? Welcome to our June 9th at-the-market share offering. This is the beginning of our handle. Check.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/6zw2yzzazea71.jpg?width=1179&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=25b5dde81650e0d0a51331a2be5c32099c2c6f46)
|
||||
|
||||
I heard you all like pictures so I made you one
|
||||
|
||||
June 24th
|
||||
|
||||
What about June 24th? Well, I've seen a lot of people mention that they don't think the share offerings are impacting the price much at all. No disrespect to anybody but I believe this is entirely wrong. I think it's clear that it did so back in April and also again in June. Not only did GameStop kindly offer a total of 8.5 million more shares At-The-Market which short sellers could have used to cover if they so wished (*Spoiler Alert: they didn't*), but I believe it also served to do 2 additional things.
|
||||
|
||||
1. I believe it was used to guarantee the MOASS by kicking the can down the road so we could align with a date where we are going to have a significant price spike (July 14th) which just so happens to be 35 days from when the June 9th ATM was announced. Feel free take this one with a grain of salt though if you choose.
|
||||
|
||||
2. I believe the short sellers used these 8.5 million shares to short immediately as of the announcements and I don't think they limited themselves to the 8.5 million either when taking liberty to do this. Take this with however much salt you deem appropriate though.
|
||||
|
||||
So, what now?
|
||||
|
||||
I know, you know, we all know by now... we already won. At this point in time we're just going through the motions. But this is what I see. The price is going to spike on July 14th. Can it be a different day? Sure, but I really believe it's the 14th. I think we will see an insane amount of volume and a large price increase on that day. Do I think we'll moon on that date? Nope.
|
||||
|
||||
At least not based on previous patterns. I don't know options well enough to know what will happen as a result of all the Calls/Puts ITM/OTM on July 16th but I imagine that things are going to get crazy. And fast. But moon, I don't think so. At least not yet anyway.
|
||||
|
||||
Now for the party trick.
|
||||
|
||||
Remember when GameStop announced the share offering completion on April 26th? This restarted us on a 21-day schedule. Now, did you pay attention to when the June ATM completed? June 22nd. Lets count 21 trading days from the 22nd and see what we uncover shall we?
|
||||
|
||||
Wait. First of all, I don't do dates. Ask my fiancee. Last date she went on was April 20th and all she got was an ice cream cone, a proposal and a tweet.
|
||||
|
||||
Fine, be that way. I know you can do math anyway so I might as well come out and just say it. 21 trading days from June 22nd lands us on... July 22nd. Day 6. Checkmate.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/54fi3sf5zea71.jpg?width=1024&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=b450f02740061814075955edf8d45d9bc5ab5cdf)
|
||||
|
||||
Self-explanatory I hope
|
||||
|
||||
My advice. For most of you, I believe this is the last '*normal*' weekend of your life. What happened over the last 6 months is going to make you a very wealthy individual. Let go of any hatred, focus on how you're going to make your life and the life of those around you better. We have a world to change.
|
||||
|
||||
Thank you Keith. Thank you Ryan. Thank you GameStop. Thanks to everybody who has been a part of this journey. And with that said... Buckle up.
|
||||
|
||||
TLDR: T+21 exists. I believe it gets reset at the completion of every ATM offering. Our next has been moved up to July 22nd and it lands right as I believe we're going to be sitting on the edge of space as a result of a July 14th spike.
|
132
DD/2021-07-12-COVID-19-The-CARES-Act-and-Undeniable-Greed.md
Normal file
132
DD/2021-07-12-COVID-19-The-CARES-Act-and-Undeniable-Greed.md
Normal file
@ -0,0 +1,132 @@
|
||||
COVID-19, The CARES Act, and Undeniable Greed: The Story of How Wall Street Tried to Bankrupt Businesses with Money Meant to Save Businesses (GME Centric)
|
||||
==========================================================================================================================================================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/Freadom6](https://www.reddit.com/user/Freadom6/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/oiwpxj/covid19_the_cares_act_and_undeniable_greed_the/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
[DD 👨🔬](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22DD%20%F0%9F%91%A8%E2%80%8D%F0%9F%94%AC%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||
Obligatory: This should not be confused with financial advise. I do not offer finanicial advice or services. I am simply pointing out connections I am making through data and deductive reasoning.
|
||||
|
||||
TL;dr Prepare yourself for this next sentence, take a deep breath... How would you feel if I told you investment firms were given LARGE DOLLAR AMOUNTS in Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) "forgivable" loans (the money designed to keep businesses afloat during the pandemic) and the data and timing is indicating they used those funds to try to bankrupt businesses, including GME? Errrrmm... Scoots chair around uncomfortably... Because that is what I am about to tell you through these many words (and some pictures). Roughly $1.5 Billion worth of PPP loans went out to the "Industry" of "Investment Advice" through 12/1/2020.
|
||||
|
||||
["Investment Advice" Industry Loan Data](https://www.federalpay.org/paycheck-protection-program/industries/investment-advice)
|
||||
|
||||
[PPP Loan Forgiveness Requirements](https://www.sba.gov/funding-programs/loans/covid-19-relief-options/paycheck-protection-program/ppp-loan-forgiveness)
|
||||
|
||||
GME & MEME STOCKS HIT BOTTOM 4/2 & 4/3 of 2020
|
||||
|
||||
I originally began this journey into the great cesspool of our market system to compare GME monthly close prices to FINRA's reported margin debt, and while I did find the information I was looking for to show the continued correlation between GME and the current margin debt I slowly began to realize that was no longer the information I was seeking (I will make a margin debt post later this week). Why? Because looking at this information caused me to see that GME hit its bottom, in regard to share price, on April 3rd, 2020 after a 6 day skid beginning on March 27th, 2020 (I'm about to be sinful, avert your eyes if necessary, the movie company hit its bottom on April 2nd, 2020 after a 5 day skid beginning on March 27th, 2020, and Black Berry hit it's low on 4/3/2020 as well). In case this was a whole market slide I checked out some other tickers and found some other stock prices fell slightly, but most remained relatively flat compared to GME and the meme stocks.
|
||||
|
||||
[GME Share Price Movement (and volume) Credit: www.investing.com](https://preview.redd.it/utb3wshkfta71.jpg?width=660&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=abe10fbed10dc955d82fc529a285b47d6aae1d63)
|
||||
|
||||
[Credit: www.investing.com](https://preview.redd.it/d4zs1pnigta71.jpg?width=332&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=e51a5e1389d66b035ebee3fa1d04c814d319fbd0)
|
||||
|
||||
CARES ACT
|
||||
|
||||
So, why is March 27th, 2020, of any importance? Because on that day, "The Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security (CARES) Act (2020)... provided fast and direct economic assistance for American workers, families, small businesses, and industries" was signed into law. [CARES ACT](https://home.treasury.gov/policy-issues/coronavirus/about-the-cares-act)
|
||||
|
||||
So now you are saying to yourself, yeah, but Hedge Funds were ineligible from receiving the funding even though they applied for it in mass amounts so why should I care? Because it appears that many firms investing in the market were QUITE ELIGIBLE as the below information is going to point out, and the data is indicating they used those funds or the anticipation of those funds to hammer GME and meme stocks with short selling from 3/27/20 -- 4/3/20.
|
||||
|
||||
Let us reiterate, the money designed to keep small businesses afloat during the COVID-19 Winter of Discontent was used by firms investing in the stock market. What is worse, the data is showing that some of these firms were using the funds to short GME & meme stocks.
|
||||
|
||||
FOX BUSINESS ARTICLE 4/18/2020
|
||||
|
||||
Now, we'll take a look to a Fox Business article from 4/18/2020, written by: Charlie Gasparino (He is active on social media, but I'm not sure what he's up to these days aside from hating retail investors):
|
||||
|
||||
[Stimulus Intended to Help Coronavirus-Ravaged Small Businesses Instead Rewarding Hedge Funds, Brokerages](https://www.foxbusiness.com/money/stimulus-intended-to-help-coronavirus-ravaged-small-businesses-instead-rewarding-hedge-funds-brokerages)
|
||||
|
||||
*"The bank was receiving applications (for PPP Loans) not just from those barely solvent mom-and-pop businesses like* [*restaurants*](https://www.foxbusiness.com/category/food-drinks)*, salons and family-run* [*factories*](https://www.foxbusiness.com/category/industries) *shuttered amid the nationwide pandemic shutdown that the legislation was supposed to help.*
|
||||
|
||||
*Flowing into his system were applications from businesses no one would consider small, or even barely solvent:* *Midsized hedge funds**,* *brokerage businesses,* *small law firms, all outfits that are making money, much of it through fee income, and many operating remotely almost as if nothing had changed.*
|
||||
|
||||
*How could this be? What the banker discovered was that with less than 500* [*employees*](https://www.foxbusiness.com/category/jobs)*, financial firms and other high-end businesses are technically qualified for low-interest federally guaranteed loans under the broad parameters of the government's Payroll Protection Program (PPP).*
|
||||
|
||||
*And many were sending applications to his bank for the cash, as much as $10 million in the form of a forgivable loan, even if these weren't the types of small businesses Washington was looking to aid.*
|
||||
|
||||
*Even worse, the hedge funds and brokerage businesses were in effect taking money that should be earmarked for businesses that can barely survive in a time of social distancing and quarantines.*
|
||||
|
||||
*These companies have been forced to lay off workers just to make rent, while many banks were prioritizing loans on a first-come, first-served basis and giving priority to their best customers. That means* [*hedge funds*](https://www.foxbusiness.com/category/hedge-funds) *and financial firms with deep pockets and significant banking relationships could be getting the money ahead of the local coffee shop...*
|
||||
|
||||
*"What's going to happen is a class divide we haven't seen in years," the banker told FOX Business. "Remember Occupy Wall Street?" he asked, referring to the sometimes violent protest movement after the 2008 financial collapse and bank bailouts. "These protests will be bigger and more violent because the economic problems are worse and the disparity of the money is favoring Wall Street even more.""*
|
||||
|
||||
Fuck me... I do not think my words are needed in summarizing this article. In case the article is now mysteriously updated I have taken screenshots of the entire article and will post them if necessary. Check the article out for additional details.
|
||||
|
||||
Here is a MarketWatch Article from 4/15/2020 reiterating some main points: ["It's a complete abomination" says Wall Street money manager about hedge funds applying for bailouts from small-business recovery funds](https://www.marketwatch.com/story/its-a-complete-abomination-says-wall-street-money-manager-about-hedge-funds-applying-for-bailouts-from-small-business-recovery-funds-2020-04-14)
|
||||
|
||||
DD on 13F Filings
|
||||
|
||||
Armed with this information I decided to dig into the latest 2021 13F filings through [www.whalewisdom.com](http://www.whalewisdom.com/) and PPP loan recipients from <http://ppprecipients.com/> and found some interesting information. I did not review every company with holdings in GME, this is just a sample of firms with GME positions and some of those that received funding through the CARES Act (PPP Funds):
|
||||
|
||||
2021-Q2 13F/13D/G Filings
|
||||
|
||||
COMPANY 1
|
||||
|
||||
1. Company: Advisornet Financial
|
||||
|
||||
2. Shares: 10,000 (put)
|
||||
|
||||
3. Loan amount: $1 - $2 Million (approved on 4/4/2020)
|
||||
|
||||
COMPANY 2
|
||||
|
||||
1. Company: Creative Planning
|
||||
|
||||
2. Shares: 13,700 (put)
|
||||
|
||||
3. Loan Amount: $350k - $1 Million (approved on 4/13/2020)
|
||||
|
||||
Company 3
|
||||
|
||||
1. Company: Larson Financial Holdings
|
||||
|
||||
2. Shares: 100 (put)
|
||||
|
||||
3. Loan Amount: $2M - $5 Million (approved on 4/7/2020)
|
||||
|
||||
All of these loans were approved in early April, 2020, meaning they were filed even earlier, before the PPP was signed into law on 4/24/2020, and look at how close those dates are to the implementation of the CARES Act and the GME tumble from 3/27/2020 -- 4/3/2020. LOOK HOW CLOSE. AND all these companies have open PUT positions in GME as of the last filing. Betting GME share price will go down. How did they receive funding when other small businesses were exempt and ended up going bankrupt? They directly or indirectly used the money designed to keep the economy and struggling businesses afloat to open put positions in GME? WTF?
|
||||
|
||||
Now, things feel interesting. So, I decided to go even further down this slime covered cavern and look at 13F filings from 2020-Q2 (when GME hit its lowest close price) to see if any funds with actual shares in GME had received any loans and was unsurprised, but genuinely angry. I went "A" - "B" alphabetically through the list and found 3 companies who had shares in GME in 2020-Q2 that still have positions today (I skimmed through and saw plenty more later in the alphabet, I just have a hard time counting letters that high due to my intellectual inconsistencies):
|
||||
|
||||
2020-Q2 13/F
|
||||
|
||||
Company 1
|
||||
|
||||
Advisors Asset Management, Inc
|
||||
|
||||
1. 2020 Q2 Shares: 134,632
|
||||
|
||||
2. Loan Amount: $5M - $10 Million (approved on 4/5/2020)
|
||||
|
||||
3. Current Shares: 33,789 (latest 13/F filing)
|
||||
|
||||
Company 2
|
||||
|
||||
Arkadios Wealth Advisors (Arkadios Capital)
|
||||
|
||||
1. 2020 Q2 Shares: (Sold all shares - 2)
|
||||
|
||||
2. Loan Amount: $150k - $350k (approved on 4/9/2020)
|
||||
|
||||
3. Current Shares: 2210
|
||||
|
||||
Company 3:
|
||||
|
||||
Bridgeway Capital Management
|
||||
|
||||
1. 2020 Q2 Shares: 76,900
|
||||
|
||||
2. Loan Amount: $350k - $1 Million (approved on 4/11/2020)
|
||||
|
||||
3. Current Shares: 40,600
|
||||
|
||||
My speculation is that several firms applied for the PPP funds on or near 3/27/2020, knew the funds were coming, and used those anticipated funds to aggressively short GME and other meme stocks due to the absolute tumble that GME/Meme stocks took from 3/26/2020 -- 4/3/2020 as stated above.
|
||||
|
||||
I'm unsure how to conclude this post aside from: Buy/HODL. The day is coming.
|
||||
|
||||
Tanks fo' reedin'.
|
||||
|
||||
Edit: Thanks to [u/Evorus_Krayde](https://www.reddit.com/u/Evorus_Krayde/) for getting me to [u/Doggoonewild](https://www.reddit.com/u/Doggoonewild/) post: [Citadel Alum Charged with $2.4M PPP Loan Scam](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/mw3jd3/citadel_alum_charged_with_24m_ppp_loan_scam/?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share)
|
@ -0,0 +1,136 @@
|
||||
Delta/Gamma Neutral Update - Hold strong!
|
||||
=========================================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/yelyah2](https://www.reddit.com/user/yelyah2/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/og9pcv/deltagamma_neutral_update_hold_strong/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
[DD 👨🔬](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22DD%20%F0%9F%91%A8%E2%80%8D%F0%9F%94%AC%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||
TLDR: This is just a quick update for the Delta Neutral/Gamma Neutral/Gamma Maximum indicators. The DN is currently ~$157, which isn't ideal for red days like we've been having, but GME always bounces back if it does drop. Hold strong!
|
||||
|
||||
*Background*
|
||||
|
||||
My work is built on the idea that the market is largely unpredictable, but one particular kind of behavior is certain - hedgies gonna hedge. It's written into their algorithms. Specifically, they like to delta hedge and gamma hedge. This work tries to profit on this one particular type of buying/selling behavior.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/sk94lr67d0a71.png?width=300&format=png&auto=webp&s=2d69b060bbd94a962f23985309109832a9031764)
|
||||
|
||||
Hedgies Hedgin'
|
||||
|
||||
In general, all stock indicators boil down to two things - reversion to the mean and momentum. Every trader wants to accurately predict these two forces better than other guy, and if you use different indicators than the other guy, that an give you an 'alpha' in trading if it's a better predictor.
|
||||
|
||||
I make a lot of different indicators, but the two primary ones are the Delta Neutral and Gamma Neutral:
|
||||
|
||||
- Delta Neutral (DN) - This helps identify reversion to the mean, and represents the underlying price that would create a total market delta of 0 across all GME options (all expiration dates) for a given date. In general, it acts like a floor to the underlying price, but if the price drops below the delta neutral, then it tends to shoot back up above that line.
|
||||
|
||||
- This is generally how I trade my model. I watch for stocks that drop below the DN, and buy them, expecting for traders to identify that the stock is underpriced and will revert back to a higher level.
|
||||
|
||||
- Gamma Neutral (GN) and Gamma Maximum (GM) - This helps identify momentum. The GN represents the underlying price that would create a total market gamma of 0 across all GME options (all expiration dates) for a given date, whereas the GM represents the underlying price that would create the maximum gamma across the market.
|
||||
|
||||
- In general, a sudden increase in gamma indicates a sharp upward in momentum that continues until that gamma drops.
|
||||
|
||||
- The GM seems to act like a ceiling, but fun things happen when the underlying crossing that threshold!
|
||||
|
||||
This is my own personal 'alpha' that I developed for my own trading purposes, and am sharing with this community because it's given me back so much. This is not financial advice. I'm just a mathematician that likes to play with options data, and I am not a professional trader.
|
||||
|
||||
There is a detailed data dictionary, methodology and assumptions section at the bottom that gives my method in full detail.
|
||||
|
||||
*Delta/Gamma Neutral Graph*
|
||||
|
||||
Here's the graph you're used to seeing, and it includes the Close Price (green), delta neutral (blue), gamma neutral (orange) and gamma maximum (red), on a log-based 10 scale so you can see those spikes in all their glory.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/c01cdyzfb0a71.png?width=910&format=png&auto=webp&s=80f628b1d49d920ef5ceaf49911ea5678c267e52)
|
||||
|
||||
A few things that happened since I last posted:
|
||||
|
||||
- I've been working hard on updates to my model and creating new indicators that I hope to share soon. I know I keep saying that, but research takes time. There are a lot of twists/turns/unexpected results. May post what I have so far soon, and see if the group has any ideas to explain what I'm seeing.
|
||||
|
||||
- I refined my IV methodology, which caused the DN optimization to break during the January squeeze (not surprising), but that's why you see it crash out in January. I'm working on identifying why that's happening.
|
||||
|
||||
- The delta neutral floor is currently holding steady around $157, which obviously isn't ideal during these red days, but just know that GME always bounces back if it does drop.
|
||||
|
||||
- GME likes to hang out between 10% and 30% higher than the delta neutral price if nothing unusual happens, which gives a range of $172 - $204 for the underlying.
|
||||
|
||||
- GME's high is 214% higher than the DN back on 1/27, so certainly able to break higher, but it will see resistance to break higher.
|
||||
|
||||
- No significant action with the GN since 6/8
|
||||
|
||||
- The GM is currently at $247, indicating fun things COULD happen if we can bounce over that point.
|
||||
|
||||
*Methodology and Assumptions*
|
||||
|
||||
Delta Neutral
|
||||
|
||||
The Delta Neutral price that creates a total market delta of 0 across all GME options (all expiration dates) for a given date. It can also be though of as the intersection of a supply/demand curve for hedged stocks. See the "Methodology and Assumptions" section for full detail on how I develop this indicator.
|
||||
|
||||
Notes below for general options on how the delta neutral interacts with the underlying price:
|
||||
|
||||
- There is a large influx of call option purchases, because:
|
||||
|
||||
- The call prices get less expensive as the underlying price approaches the delta neutral
|
||||
|
||||
- Stock prices usually rebound/revert back to the mean after large crashes, so the price often rebounds anyways.
|
||||
|
||||
- With the large influx of call volume, market makers have to start buying stocks to delta hedge, which turns the price back around and creates an upward trajectory.
|
||||
|
||||
- Important note that hedgies often hedge with derivatives instead of buying stocks, so there isn't a 1-to-1 relationship between the delta and shares bought/sold by hedge funds.
|
||||
|
||||
- Historically, you can see that GME often bounces off the delta neutral prices during drops. The exception is the February drop. When the underlying goes below the delta neutral price, a lot of pressure builds up that results in a significant increase when that pressure is released.
|
||||
|
||||
- Note this is the primary way that I trade my model. I made a scanner that looks for equities that fall below the delta neutral.
|
||||
|
||||
Gamma Neutral
|
||||
|
||||
The Gamma Neutral price that creates a total market gamma of 0 across all GME options (all expiration dates) for a given date. See the "Methodology and Assumptions" section for full detail on how I develop this indicator.
|
||||
|
||||
General notes below for observations on how this indicator behaves:
|
||||
|
||||
- It acts like support/resistance between the delta neutral and the underlying, and typically bounces around between the two prices for most symbols (like we have seen with GME since April).
|
||||
|
||||
- It also goes crazy in periods of high volatility, as you can see by the very higher spikes.
|
||||
|
||||
- A gamma spike indicates the presence of POTENTAILLY slippery option market conditions, which COULD lead to a gamma squeeze. There were certainly spikes present back in January, but we had a few one-day false starts this last month.
|
||||
|
||||
- They are often triggered by high price movement in a day, which can lead to continue high growth if underlying volume supports it.
|
||||
|
||||
- Gamma spikes can also be triggered by unusual options purchases during the day. These are the one ones to find, because you can often catch the high increase waves before they actually start.
|
||||
|
||||
- If I'm trading this indicator, I often either wait for a gamma spike to continue for 2 days in a row and supported by increased volume. Otherwise, I invest straight away if I find a gamma spike just based on options movement (i.e. no significant underlying increase yet).
|
||||
|
||||
I write my own algorithms to produce the results above. The following lists some key methodology and assumptions I use:
|
||||
|
||||
- I rely on daily options and stock summaries produced by [www.historicaloptionsdata.com](http://www.historicaloptionsdata.com/)
|
||||
|
||||
- For the Implied Volatility (IV), I use the following method:
|
||||
|
||||
- Calculate the raw IV of the mid-point between bid/ask price at close.
|
||||
|
||||
- Calculate a "blend" IV, which represents the IV where the call/put parity holds, i.e. where call delta -- put delta = 1, using the same IV.
|
||||
|
||||
- Smooth the mid-point call/put and blend IV using a gaussian smoothing algorithm with a 20-strike window.
|
||||
|
||||
- Apply the smoothed call/put relativities to the smoothed blended IV curve
|
||||
|
||||
- Fill any missing values with a linear interpolation of the neighboring strikes.
|
||||
|
||||
- Using the final call/put IV estimates described above, I calculate my own Greeks. I like this source if you're interested in the formulas: <https://www.macroption.com/option-greeks-excel>
|
||||
|
||||
- For the total market delta and total market gamma, I rely on the OI x delta and OI x gamma for each strike price.
|
||||
|
||||
- Note that the delta of a call is usually equal to (1 - put delta), so not adjustment is needed to the delta signs when calculating the total market delta.
|
||||
|
||||
- However, the call/put gammas are both positive based on the B-S calculation. If you're calculating the total gamma for a portfolio, or the total market, you have to add the call gamma and subtract the put gamma.
|
||||
|
||||
- To estimate the delta neutral and the gamma neutral, I have an algorithm that relies on the optimization toolbox in Matlab to identify an underlying price that achieve a total market delta and a total market gamma.
|
||||
|
||||
- Note that the IV would change with higher/lower prices for the delta/gamma neutral and the sensitivity tests, but the impact is not significant enough to make a meaningful difference and takes significant processing time to apply the IV curves. However, it is an important simplifying assumption to be aware of.
|
||||
|
||||
- Open Interest (OI) is always lagged one day for options summaries. The OCC releases final open interest on a given day, and it represents the OI for the close of the prior day. Therefore, the OI I get in my summaries on 6/28 does not represent the OI as of close on 6/28. It represents the OI as of close on 6/25. If you see a source like Yahoo give live OI throughout the day, they are only estimates, and their algorithm methodology for estimating the OI based on various price/volume movement is a closely guarded secret. Using the prior day OI is currently a limitation of the data available to me.
|
||||
|
||||
*Disclaimer: I'm just a mathematician that likes to play with options data and builds models to trade for a hobby. I have no experience trading professionally or offering any advice to anyone. Nothing is certain in trading. It's all probabilities and what increases/decreases your chance at a profit. This is just one indicator for one type of price movement, and there are many other indicators that can help you make investment decisions.*
|
||||
|
||||
*I'll do my best to respond to all comments, including the negative ones. I'm happy to have a productive chat about any of my logic. I've gotten a lot of good ideas from posting on this forum, so thank you! However, if I can defend myself in a dark parking lot with nothing but my high heels, I can certainly defend myself against online trolls. So be nice.*
|
||||
|
||||
TLDR: This is just a quick update for the Delta Neutral/Gamma Neutral/Gamma Maximum indicators. The DN is currently ~$157, which isn't ideal for red days like we've been having, but GME always bounces back if it does drop. Hold strong!
|
@ -0,0 +1,164 @@
|
||||
Knock Knock Knockin' on Delta Neutral's Door
|
||||
============================================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/yelyah2](https://www.reddit.com/user/yelyah2/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/ojevhv/knock_knock_knockin_on_delta_neutrals_door/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
[Possible DD 👨🔬](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22Possible%20DD%20%F0%9F%91%A8%E2%80%8D%F0%9F%94%AC%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||
*Disclaimer: With the recent debate on the sub, I've decided to label my posts as "Possible DD" until someone is able to peer review my work, and independently replicate it. So far, my only proof has been how it works in the field, which means it should not be blindly taken as truth. I fully support academic standards, as every part of my work in real life is peer reviewed and my work has always been improved by an extra set of eyes. However, I also support choice and freedom of speech, so I think it's up to every writer to decide how to label their own work. It's also the responsibility of every reader to judge the quality of content they read, and don't take anything at face value. To the moon for us all!*
|
||||
|
||||
TLDR: My read of several indicators (both contained in this post, and in my model) is we should start seeing some buying pressure this week, most likely in the option settlement period (Tuesday - Thursday), which will start us on a steady incline upwards.
|
||||
|
||||
Although I can't report an imminent trip to the heavens using my indicators, I can say that we're knocking on the Delta Neutral's door... just as good? No.. but it does signal a turn-around is coming soon!
|
||||
|
||||
My work is built on the idea that the market is largely unpredictable, but one particular kind of behavior is certain - hedgies gonna hedge. It's written into their algorithms. Specifically, they like to delta hedge and gamma hedge. This work tries to profit on this one particular type of buying/selling behavior. If you're lost, please refer to the detailed data dictionary, methodology and assumptions section at the bottom.
|
||||
|
||||
*Delta/Gamma Neutral Graphs*
|
||||
|
||||
Here she is! This graph includes the Close Price (green), delta neutral (blue), gamma neutral (orange) and gamma maximum (red), on a log-based 10 scale so you can see those spikes in all their glory.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/6xmd5xls20b71.png?width=910&format=png&auto=webp&s=9fdb10a53d66a907fc38a7580259c821bfd151ca)
|
||||
|
||||
GME 1/4/2021 - 7/12/2021 - Log Based 10 Scale
|
||||
|
||||
Observations for the graph below:
|
||||
|
||||
- the GME close price has been drifting downwards, while the delta neutral has been drifting upwards.
|
||||
|
||||
- The gamma neutral has been bouncing around between, and now the DN/GN/Close are all converging.
|
||||
|
||||
- Because the underlying price is drifting lower, instead of dropping quickly, so it MAY continue to drop past the DN before springing back up, but based on other indicators, I expect that pressure from hitting the DN will start making it more appealing to call buyers, and we should start to see a steady incline soon.
|
||||
|
||||
- The max gamma is holding steady at $260, which is my target to hit in order to launch us upwards.
|
||||
|
||||
Just for fun, I thought would share a few other popular stocks that you can review for comparison. As you can see, the stocks often stay above the delta neutral, but occasionally drop to the delta neutral, and even sometimes below it, before ricocheting back upwards.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/3ictf87i20b71.png?width=910&format=png&auto=webp&s=eb6dceff875317457c402dbe781a2700bdc76d11)
|
||||
|
||||
Movie Stock 1/4/2021 - 6/18/2021
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/woxnaf6p20b71.png?width=910&format=png&auto=webp&s=6e8d49ecece333cc7d28a2290f23ca8d0db57496)
|
||||
|
||||
BBBY 1/4/2021 - 6/28/2021
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/1netpi6n20b71.png?width=910&format=png&auto=webp&s=aa662200c7effe6332404cd98f7201c3fc14ed1a)
|
||||
|
||||
SPCE 1/4/2021 - 6/28/2021
|
||||
|
||||
*7/16 Expiration Dates*
|
||||
|
||||
I know everyone's getting excited about the 7/16 puts expiring, but I have a few considerations:
|
||||
|
||||
- 47% of all Call OI is expiring this Friday, versus 48% of all put oi. This battle is losing about the same number of bear/bull warriors on each side.
|
||||
|
||||
- On the other hand, 81% of call OI currently has strikes > 1.05 x Close, versus 96% of put oi with strikes < close / 1.05. So we should be keeping a higher percentage of valuable bull warriors, compared to the valuable bear warriors kept by the other side after Friday.
|
||||
|
||||
- The max pain is currently @$180, versus $200 for options expiring next week. I would never trade by the max pain, but it can be a good benchmark, and 11% increase for next week's options is a good sign that the equilibrium is trending up.
|
||||
|
||||
- The IV for the OTM puts (~Put @ -0.25 delta) minus the IV for ATM calls (Call @ ~0.50 delta) has been positive for the last few weeks, indicating higher buying pressure for OTM puts, compared to calls, and has corresponded to our long price drop.
|
||||
|
||||
- However, that difference finally turned negative today, indicating the IV for ATM calls is greater than the IV for the OTM puts, signaling the buying pressure for those OTM puts is easing up this week. Hopefully the bear put's reign of terror is finally subsiding after three.... long... brutal.... weeks....
|
||||
|
||||
Finally, for reasons I would like to keep to myself because it's a big part of my alpha, I am expecting a nice bump in volume in the settlement period this week (Tuesday - Thursday), about an extra 1.1M more than usual, probably on Wednesday, which will result in some buying pressure if we maintain this nice low volume we've been having.
|
||||
|
||||
TLDR: My read of several indicators (both contained in this post, and in my model) is we should start seeing some buying pressure this week, most likely in the option settlement period (Tuesday - Thursday), which will start us on a steady incline upwards.
|
||||
|
||||
*Now it's time to tell you all the boring stuff....*
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/tstg6emk20b71.png?width=650&format=png&auto=webp&s=6e000a848f0399709f49b81739e1ce9ffc3a51a8)
|
||||
|
||||
*fart noises*
|
||||
|
||||
Overview
|
||||
|
||||
In general, all stock indicators boil down to two things - reversion to the mean and momentum. Every trader wants to accurately predict these two forces better than other guy, and if you use different indicators than the other guy, that an give you an 'alpha' in trading if it's a better predictor.
|
||||
|
||||
I make a lot of different indicators, but the two primary ones are the Delta Neutral and Gamma Neutral:
|
||||
|
||||
- Delta Neutral (DN) - This helps identify reversion to the mean, and represents the underlying price that would create a total market delta of 0 across all GME options (all expiration dates) for a given date. In general, it acts like a floor to the underlying price, but if the price drops below the delta neutral, then it tends to shoot back up above that line.
|
||||
|
||||
- This is generally how I trade my model. I watch for stocks that drop below the DN, and buy them, expecting for traders to identify that the stock is underpriced and will revert back to a higher level.
|
||||
|
||||
- Gamma Neutral (GN) and Gamma Maximum (GM) - This helps identify momentum. The GN represents the underlying price that would create a total market gamma of 0 across all GME options (all expiration dates) for a given date, whereas the GM represents the underlying price that would create the maximum gamma across the market.
|
||||
|
||||
- In general, a sudden increase in gamma indicates a sharp upward in momentum that continues until that gamma drops.
|
||||
|
||||
- The GM seems to act like a ceiling, but fun things happen when the underlying crossing that threshold!
|
||||
|
||||
This is my own personal 'alpha' that I developed for my own trading purposes, and am sharing with this community because it's given me back so much. This is not financial advice. I'm just a mathematician that likes to play with options data, and I am not a professional trader.
|
||||
|
||||
*Methodology and Assumptions*
|
||||
|
||||
Delta Neutral
|
||||
|
||||
The Delta Neutral price that creates a total market delta of 0 across all GME options (all expiration dates) for a given date. It can also be though of as the intersection of a supply/demand curve for hedged stocks. See the "Methodology and Assumptions" section for full detail on how I develop this indicator.
|
||||
|
||||
Notes below for general options on how the delta neutral interacts with the underlying price:
|
||||
|
||||
- There is a large influx of call option purchases, because:
|
||||
|
||||
- The call prices get less expensive as the underlying price approaches the delta neutral
|
||||
|
||||
- Stock prices usually rebound/revert back to the mean after large crashes, so the price often rebounds anyways.
|
||||
|
||||
- With the large influx of call volume, market makers have to start buying stocks to delta hedge, which turns the price back around and creates an upward trajectory.
|
||||
|
||||
- Important note that hedgies often hedge with derivatives instead of buying stocks, so there isn't a 1-to-1 relationship between the delta and shares bought/sold by hedge funds.
|
||||
|
||||
- Historically, you can see that GME often bounces off the delta neutral prices during drops. The exception is the February drop. When the underlying goes below the delta neutral price, a lot of pressure builds up that results in a significant increase when that pressure is released.
|
||||
|
||||
- Note this is the primary way that I trade my model. I made a scanner that looks for equities that fall below the delta neutral.
|
||||
|
||||
Gamma Neutral
|
||||
|
||||
The Gamma Neutral price that creates a total market gamma of 0 across all GME options (all expiration dates) for a given date. See the "Methodology and Assumptions" section for full detail on how I develop this indicator.
|
||||
|
||||
General notes below for observations on how this indicator behaves:
|
||||
|
||||
- It acts like support/resistance between the delta neutral and the underlying, and typically bounces around between the two prices for most symbols (like we have seen with GME since April).
|
||||
|
||||
- It also goes crazy in periods of high volatility, as you can see by the very higher spikes.
|
||||
|
||||
- A gamma spike indicates the presence of POTENTAILLY slippery option market conditions, which COULD lead to a gamma squeeze. There were certainly spikes present back in January, but we had a few one-day false starts this last month.
|
||||
|
||||
- They are often triggered by high price movement in a day, which can lead to continue high growth if underlying volume supports it.
|
||||
|
||||
- Gamma spikes can also be triggered by unusual options purchases during the day. These are the one ones to find, because you can often catch the high increase waves before they actually start.
|
||||
|
||||
- If I'm trading this indicator, I often either wait for a gamma spike to continue for 2 days in a row and supported by increased volume. Otherwise, I invest straight away if I find a gamma spike just based on options movement (i.e. no significant underlying increase yet).
|
||||
|
||||
I write my own algorithms to produce the results above. The following lists some key methodology and assumptions I use:
|
||||
|
||||
- I rely on daily options and stock summaries produced by [www.historicaloptionsdata.com](http://www.historicaloptionsdata.com/)
|
||||
|
||||
- For the Implied Volatility (IV), I use the following method:
|
||||
|
||||
- Calculate the raw IV of the mid-point between bid/ask price at close.
|
||||
|
||||
- Calculate a "blend" IV, which represents the IV where the call/put parity holds, i.e. where call delta -- put delta = 1, using the same IV.
|
||||
|
||||
- Smooth the mid-point call/put and blend IV using a gaussian smoothing algorithm with a 20-strike window.
|
||||
|
||||
- Apply the smoothed call/put relativities to the smoothed blended IV curve
|
||||
|
||||
- Fill any missing values with a linear interpolation of the neighboring strikes.
|
||||
|
||||
- Using the final call/put IV estimates described above, I calculate my own Greeks. I like this source if you're interested in the formulas: <https://www.macroption.com/option-greeks-excel>
|
||||
|
||||
- For the total market delta and total market gamma, I rely on the OI x delta and OI x gamma for each strike price.
|
||||
|
||||
- Note that the delta of a call is usually equal to (1 - put delta), so not adjustment is needed to the delta signs when calculating the total market delta.
|
||||
|
||||
- However, the call/put gammas are both positive based on the B-S calculation. If you're calculating the total gamma for a portfolio, or the total market, you have to add the call gamma and subtract the put gamma.
|
||||
|
||||
- To estimate the delta neutral and the gamma neutral, I have an algorithm that relies on the optimization toolbox in Matlab to identify an underlying price that achieve a total market delta and a total market gamma.
|
||||
|
||||
- Note that the IV would change with higher/lower prices for the delta/gamma neutral and the sensitivity tests, but the impact is not significant enough to make a meaningful difference and takes significant processing time to apply the IV curves. However, it is an important simplifying assumption to be aware of.
|
||||
|
||||
- Open Interest (OI) is always lagged one day for options summaries. The OCC releases final open interest on a given day, and it represents the OI for the close of the prior day. Therefore, the OI I get in my summaries on 6/28 does not represent the OI as of close on 6/28. It represents the OI as of close on 6/25. If you see a source like Yahoo give live OI throughout the day, they are only estimates, and their algorithm methodology for estimating the OI based on various price/volume movement is a closely guarded secret. Using the prior day OI is currently a limitation of the data available to me.
|
||||
|
||||
TLDR: My read of several indicators (both contained in this post, and in my model) is we should start seeing some buying pressure this week, most likely in the option settlement period (Tuesday - Thursday), which will start us on a steady incline upwards.
|
@ -0,0 +1,68 @@
|
||||
Delta Neutral Update
|
||||
====================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/yelyah2](https://www.reddit.com/user/yelyah2/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/okfg08/delta_neutral_update/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
[Possible DD 👨🔬](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22Possible%20DD%20%F0%9F%91%A8%E2%80%8D%F0%9F%94%AC%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||
I know today was a rough day, but wanted to share a quick update of what I'm seeing with my indicators for those that are interested.
|
||||
|
||||
[Prior post if you need help on terminology/methods/assumptions](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/ojevhv/knock_knock_knockin_on_delta_neutrals_door/)
|
||||
|
||||
[Example of the sub DN life cycle](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/ok4chd/special_edition_down_under_the_delta_neutral/)
|
||||
|
||||
Updated chart below:
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/c3hc9pw249b71.png?width=910&format=png&auto=webp&s=2522625750a354aa817aa5a25b06e722a3dc0fe6)
|
||||
|
||||
GME 1/4/2021 - 7/14/2021
|
||||
|
||||
Quick notes:
|
||||
|
||||
- Today was obviously a bad day, and continued the downward trajectory
|
||||
|
||||
- The start of the downward trend for the DN is not an optimistic indicator for an immediate turn-around. It shows that the options buying/selling/hedging is supporting the underlying's decrease.
|
||||
|
||||
- OTM Put IV increased relative to the ATM Call IV, indicating buying pressure for OTM puts, indicating a bearish bias on the options side.
|
||||
|
||||
- The OTM Put IV increase is also supported by relatively high put volume today (54%), compared to the normal 30% - 40% puts. The increase in put purchases also helps drive the price down.
|
||||
|
||||
- The good news is the 30-day ATM IV tanked for calls, dropping from ~1.3 yesterday to 1.09 today, and came with a 50% discount on those 30-day ATM call prices.
|
||||
|
||||
My best guess is GME will continue to decrease until the put buying pressure wears off and the stock stabilizes. At that point, I expect an influx of call buyers tempted by the discount we're starting, which will help create buying pressure/a reversal.
|
||||
|
||||
I thought I would quickly show a few other stocks that made trips below the DN:
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/m294wci469b71.png?width=910&format=png&auto=webp&s=d721c37f86e85ceaebac67399d59091fed2152c4)
|
||||
|
||||
TSLA 2/5/2020 - 6/28/2021
|
||||
|
||||
Here, the pandemic slump sent TSLA down below the DN, and its drop was supported by a decrease in the DN, so it took time for TSLA to recover.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/jr3gaepg69b71.png?width=910&format=png&auto=webp&s=14ff90ce334bc853e2873f402674e8a03f29f9f4)
|
||||
|
||||
ZM 2/5/2020 - 6/28/2021
|
||||
|
||||
ZM obviously didn't have a pandemic slump, and it may have briefly passed below the DN before bouncing back on its trajectory upwards, but as it decreased, and was supported by the DN decrease, the priced bounced beneath the DN during the decrease, until the DN finally supported the increase in June.
|
||||
|
||||
Now a few examples where the DN held relatively steady while the price dipped beneath, and helped the price bounce back quickly:
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/jlglhlbg89b71.png?width=910&format=png&auto=webp&s=ac1f52daee86b545bd03a017dba99eec6ddb9baa)
|
||||
|
||||
AMD 2/5/2020 - 6/28/2021
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/50e0mfw289b71.png?width=910&format=png&auto=webp&s=2365452ae4da3cf849cf4c68b9e01d05bc134d61)
|
||||
|
||||
CAT 2/5/2020 - 6/28/2021
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/s9by02t789b71.png?width=910&format=png&auto=webp&s=2bdf52e1aed2bd6a911f3cfa91202cc4cf2f4337)
|
||||
|
||||
CHWY 2/5/2020 - 6/28/2021
|
||||
|
||||
TLDR: GME could continue its downward trajectory, and my indicators are showing SLIGHT support for that drop, but the slope is very small (3% decrease in the DN this week and a 4% decrease in the Max Gamma). There are good indicators that option buyers will be tempted by the current discounted call options, but my guess is they will wait for the price to stabilize before jumping in. We'll probably have at least one flat trading day before we see investors coming back in.
|
||||
|
||||
*Disclaimer: I'm just a mathematician that likes to play with options data and builds models to trade for a hobby. I have no experience trading professionally or offering any advice to anyone. This is just one indicator for one type of price movement, and there are many other indicators that can help you make investment decisions.*
|
@ -0,0 +1,286 @@
|
||||
Special Edition: Down Under the Delta Neutral
|
||||
=============================================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/yelyah2](https://www.reddit.com/user/yelyah2/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/ok4chd/special_edition_down_under_the_delta_neutral/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
[Possible DD 👨🔬](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22Possible%20DD%20%F0%9F%91%A8%E2%80%8D%F0%9F%94%AC%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||
Here we go, here we go! We are under the Delta Neutral (DN).... I repeat... we are under the Delta Neutral...
|
||||
|
||||
This is where I trade this indicator, and we are in my world now.... the Upside Down DN World....
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/7cylj5x1k6b71.png?width=1195&format=png&auto=webp&s=ff5babd2fac7b7b66abf0a416ca2e2484c10f7f4)
|
||||
|
||||
do do doooo.....
|
||||
|
||||
I've been showing you the log-based 10 graphs lately, because nothing super exciting has been happening, but here's a graph showing the DN up close and personal, showing we closed under the DN yesterday!
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/9ftbjem0k6b71.png?width=910&format=png&auto=webp&s=0916d523cf593eaf2737a62a5f8e8155e0ec4270)
|
||||
|
||||
GME 1/6/2021 - 7/13/2021
|
||||
|
||||
For Part I of this post, let me take you all the way back to FEBRUARY 2021.... the last time it happened...
|
||||
|
||||
PART 1 - THE FEBRUARY TRIP BELOW
|
||||
|
||||
It was a dark time... money lost... sanity drained... FUD everywhere... We all clung onto our hopes, DD, and each other. We all have our memories of that time long ago, and mine are held through the lens of the DN World.
|
||||
|
||||
Let's see what happened:
|
||||
|
||||
- First, the price tanks. Pick your reason why. We aren't covering that now.
|
||||
|
||||
- As the price tanks, hedgies are selling off loads of shares based on their OI, and helping the price continue to drop hard.
|
||||
|
||||
- As the price drops below the delta neutral, the IV is suppressed very quickly, as shown in the graph below. It also tanks from ~10.0 to bouncing around 1.0-3.0 within a WEEK
|
||||
|
||||
- Check what happens when the price tanks in March. The IV has an initial spike, the settled into a 2.0-4.0 range for FIVE weeks before settling down further.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/vonx8y6zj6b71.png?width=910&format=png&auto=webp&s=278e95650859b24575f3a813ca324a89b8852849)
|
||||
|
||||
GME 1/4/2021 - 7/13/2021
|
||||
|
||||
- The IV also tanks under the DN, and ATM prices suddenly go on discount. The 30-day ATM prices go from $130-$155 at the peak (~40% of Underlying Price), to $6-$11 by 2/5 (~10% of Underlying Price).
|
||||
|
||||
- Call Prices are often lower than Put Prices at this time. Call prices look tasty to investors, because... STONKS GO UP! This is why stocks generally sit on top of the delta neutral. There are generally more call buyers than put buyers.
|
||||
|
||||
Quick palette cleanser before we move on?
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/qvbe41sxj6b71.png?width=656&format=png&auto=webp&s=8a659858dc3d25f1eb699a17dd7bedf8399b22fc)
|
||||
|
||||
yummmm
|
||||
|
||||
Ok, let's continue....
|
||||
|
||||
- By the crash, the put OI is monstrously huge. I know there's a lot of debate around this right now. My personal opinion is it's a mix of the following:
|
||||
|
||||
- Come on.... the price went from ~$10 to almost $500 in a couple of months. People thought this thing was going to crash back down after it squeezed. It was a safe bet to buy puts on it. Not everything against GME is nefarious...
|
||||
|
||||
- I said not EVERYTHING.... There is some craaazy OTM put volume/OI during the January squeeze, that correspond to increase in those put prices, and the volume / OI ratio is waaaayy high. Again... personal conjecture here... but what if Citadel HF was selling those puts to Citadel MM, and Citadel MM executed their OTM positions, effectively forfeiting their premium. What does this do? It allows Citadel MM to give a cash injection to Citadel HF on the open market, gets around their firewall separating the two entities, and can take advantage of Citadel MM special privileges.
|
||||
|
||||
- I've heard all kinds of theories on other strategies for those OTM put OI's, and for me, it always comes back to: * No, they're not going to do any strategy that involves buying a ton of stocks (*cough* married puts *cough*), because the point is they shorted it a ton, the stocks are hard to come by, and it's really expensive to do. * Who's buying those teeny Puts? There are a lot of reasons someone would want to sell those puts, which is what most explanation boils down to. Hell.... I'd love for someone to buy a load of $0.50 puts from me, but seriously... who's buying them? That's how I came to the theory above. * Feel like there's going to be some fights over this, but let's be honest... no one actually knows the answer to this question, it's all theories at this point.
|
||||
|
||||
- The Call OI has now dropped from 47% on 1/22 to 14% by 2/1. However, once the price drops under the DN, the Call OI starts building up fast, as in 35% - 66% increases within each week, while the put OI only increases around 0% - 2% each week, which makes the Call OI bangs up to 25% by the February bounce.
|
||||
|
||||
Ready to find out what that fast build-up of Call OI did?
|
||||
|
||||
or do you want another palette cleanser?
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/wbzkwf9wj6b71.png?width=760&format=png&auto=webp&s=e0f5ac2937910087161c4c02f84440736752e0bd)
|
||||
|
||||
raaaawwwrrr
|
||||
|
||||
Sorry... those come with the territory....
|
||||
|
||||
- Ok, so as all those people are buying up calls, the total market delta is going up, and hedgies are buying up more and more stocks because of it.
|
||||
|
||||
- If you recall a few posts ago, I talked to you about the build-up of the total market delta. If you don't remember, [here's my post](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/o9qb4n/delta_neutral_update_any_meaningful_underlying/), or check the bottom for the details.
|
||||
|
||||
The graph below summaries the total market delta share equivalents (dark blue) versus the underlying close price (green).
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/vqfw7iuuj6b71.png?width=909&format=png&auto=webp&s=d81c3c58fe8eb0b3681407952987199d6bc330f3)
|
||||
|
||||
GME Total Market Delta Share Equivalent versus Underlying Close
|
||||
|
||||
You'll notice that total market delta increased significantly BEFORE the January and February/March squeezes. This helped to contribute to the buying pressure to push GME upwards.
|
||||
|
||||
Ohhh and who do we have here? It's our good friend, GAMMA!!
|
||||
|
||||
High ATM Gamma Factors makes everything nice and squeezy. Those factors increase right before significant increases, as shown in the table below.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/hwhh2hbtj6b71.png?width=910&format=png&auto=webp&s=86f8529521c1bf8ed2ce170fd349bf62618af04a)
|
||||
|
||||
GME Close/DN/ATM Gamma Factors
|
||||
|
||||
Then once the Underlying Close Price hits the Gamma Maximum point and...
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/c8nc9y4pj6b71.png?width=2598&format=png&auto=webp&s=3f2a8b7c1074a129bc4c912dbe0bcec665471779)
|
||||
|
||||
BOOOOMMM!!!
|
||||
|
||||
Ok, so all kinds of things happened in February, but I wanted to walk you through the general Life Cycle of stocks under the DN, using GME as an example.
|
||||
|
||||
TLDR - Part 1:
|
||||
|
||||
The life cycle of a stock under the DN generally consists of the following parts:
|
||||
|
||||
- Underlying price drops below the DN
|
||||
|
||||
- IV decreases
|
||||
|
||||
- Call/Put prices decrease
|
||||
|
||||
- Stock price just dropped + stonks go up + calls look tasty = higher call buying
|
||||
|
||||
- Options sellers buy up stocks to hedge
|
||||
|
||||
- If you're lucky, your good friend Gamma shows up
|
||||
|
||||
- Bing, bang, boom, you're back over the DN.
|
||||
|
||||
PART 2 - STARTING THE JOURNEY BELOW
|
||||
|
||||
As we start on this adventure below the DN together, just remember that we are in this together and to always pay the ferryman.
|
||||
|
||||
Let's quickly remind ourselves what's happening now:
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/yttusvynj6b71.png?width=910&format=png&auto=webp&s=dbd870b866a4c302612bd3bce967c6c9f1a7e9fe)
|
||||
|
||||
- The price closed at $180.06 yesterday, compared to the DN of $188.
|
||||
|
||||
- The ATM put volatility dropped from 1.2 to 1.09 (lowest since 5/11), and I suspect the ATM call volatility will follow soon.
|
||||
|
||||
- The ATM option prices dropped around 5% today
|
||||
|
||||
- The total market delta equivalent shares is dropping with the price, and accelerating the drop as option sellers and selling off more and more shares
|
||||
|
||||
- The ATM gamma factor is low right now, and nothing particularly interesting is going on with the other gamma indicators
|
||||
|
||||
How long will this take?
|
||||
|
||||
- Retail could storm in at pre-market and buy the dip to bring it out straight away, and it would have nothing to do with these indicators.
|
||||
|
||||
- If hedging controls the volume, then it usually reverses in 1-3 days. When I trade this indicator, I plan for returns to be worth holding for 2 weeks.
|
||||
|
||||
- It is not common for stocks to sit under the DN for as long as GME did back in February, but we all know GME is a special one!
|
||||
|
||||
Watch the following to signal a reversal:
|
||||
|
||||
- A drop in IV/option premiums
|
||||
|
||||
- High call % volume/OI
|
||||
|
||||
- I'll be watching the other indicators, and will report anything interesting
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/2telmucmj6b71.png?width=533&format=png&auto=webp&s=d8566faa09d186ce9b64db87c8a9f021a2a575eb)
|
||||
|
||||
To the moon for us all!
|
||||
|
||||
TLDR - Part 2:
|
||||
|
||||
- Hold tight
|
||||
|
||||
- This part is fun
|
||||
|
||||
- Watch options if you want
|
||||
|
||||
*Now it's time to tell you all the boring stuff....*
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/bm1l5jikj6b71.png?width=1200&format=png&auto=webp&s=9a704e70bacf00d1f0fafeb6f144a1faf56b47fd)
|
||||
|
||||
wah waahhhh
|
||||
|
||||
Overview
|
||||
|
||||
In general, all stock indicators boil down to two things - reversion to the mean and momentum. Every trader wants to accurately predict these two forces better than other guy, and if you use different indicators than the other guy, that an give you an 'alpha' in trading if it's a better predictor.
|
||||
|
||||
I make a lot of different indicators, but the two primary ones are the Delta Neutral and Gamma Neutral:
|
||||
|
||||
- Delta Neutral (DN) - This helps identify reversion to the mean, and represents the underlying price that would create a total market delta of 0 across all GME options (all expiration dates) for a given date. In general, it acts like a floor to the underlying price, but if the price drops below the delta neutral, then it tends to shoot back up above that line.
|
||||
|
||||
- This is generally how I trade my model. I watch for stocks that drop below the DN, and buy them, expecting for traders to identify that the stock is underpriced and will revert back to a higher level.
|
||||
|
||||
- Gamma Neutral (GN) and Gamma Maximum (GM) - This helps identify momentum. The GN represents the underlying price that would create a total market gamma of 0 across all GME options (all expiration dates) for a given date, whereas the GM represents the underlying price that would create the maximum gamma across the market.
|
||||
|
||||
- In general, a sudden increase in gamma indicates a sharp upward in momentum that continues until that gamma drops.
|
||||
|
||||
- The GM seems to act like a ceiling, but fun things happen when the underlying crossing that threshold!
|
||||
|
||||
This is my own personal 'alpha' that I developed for my own trading purposes, and am sharing with this community because it's given me back so much. This is not financial advice. I'm just a mathematician that likes to play with options data, and I am not a professional trader.
|
||||
|
||||
*Methodology and Assumptions*
|
||||
|
||||
Delta
|
||||
|
||||
The Delta of an option represents the expected change to an option's price based on a $1 change in the security's underlying price. For example, if the GME underlying price is at $100,000,000 and a GME $102,000,000 strike call has a delta of 0.2, then that call option price will increase by $0.2 if the GME underlying price moves up to $100,000,001. Note that the price is also affected by gamma so will actually be higher than the $0.2 price increase estimated by delta, which will be covered later.
|
||||
|
||||
Delta hedging is a trading strategy employed by market makers (MM's) to minimalize the directional risk associated with price movements in the underlying security. Traditionally, you can think of a MM buying 20 (0.2 x 100) stocks of the underlying security if the price increases by $1 (using the example above). However, it's important to note that hedge funds often use other derivatives to hedge, not just buying/selling stocks because it requires less capital to do so. However, these indicators can be used as a directional proxy for some of the MM behavior as the underlying price increases/decreases.
|
||||
|
||||
The total market delta share equivalent represents the sum of delta x OI across all strikes/expiration prices in a given trading day. I will say it one more time, hedge funds are not actually holding this number of shares on a given day to hedge. They often hedge with other market derivatives. However, it can give us an indicator for hedge funds buying/selling underlying equity relativities.
|
||||
|
||||
Delta Neutral
|
||||
|
||||
The Delta Neutral price that creates a total market delta of 0 across all GME options (all expiration dates) for a given date. It can also be though of as the intersection of a supply/demand curve for hedged stocks. See the "Methodology and Assumptions" section for full detail on how I develop this indicator.
|
||||
|
||||
Notes below for general options on how the delta neutral interacts with the underlying price:
|
||||
|
||||
- There is a large influx of call option purchases, because:
|
||||
|
||||
- The call prices get less expensive as the underlying price approaches the delta neutral
|
||||
|
||||
- Stock prices usually rebound/revert back to the mean after large crashes, so the price often rebounds anyways.
|
||||
|
||||
- With the large influx of call volume, market makers have to start buying stocks to delta hedge, which turns the price back around and creates an upward trajectory.
|
||||
|
||||
- Important note that hedgies often hedge with derivatives instead of buying stocks, so there isn't a 1-to-1 relationship between the delta and shares bought/sold by hedge funds.
|
||||
|
||||
- Historically, you can see that GME often bounces off the delta neutral prices during drops. The exception is the February drop. When the underlying goes below the delta neutral price, a lot of pressure builds up that results in a significant increase when that pressure is released.
|
||||
|
||||
- Note this is the primary way that I trade my model. I made a scanner that looks for equities that fall below the delta neutral.
|
||||
|
||||
Gamma
|
||||
|
||||
The Gamma of an option represents the rate of change of the Delta of an option with respect to a $1 underlying price movement. From our example above, if the GME underlying price is at $100,000,000 and a GME $102,000,000 strike call has a delta of 0.2 and a gamma of 0.05, then that call option price would actually increase by $0.25 (0.2 + 0.05) if the GME underlying price moves up to $100,000,001.
|
||||
|
||||
MM also hedge against gamma risk, but the impact of buying/selling securities to hedge is often much lower than the impact of delta hedging (also remember that they use derivatives to hedge too). However, you are probably familiar with gamma because of the "gamma squeeze" that happened back in January. A gamma squeeze happens when the underlying stock price begins to go up very quickly in a short period of time. This forces more buying activity from rapidly increasing deltas/hedging, which continues to inflate the price.
|
||||
|
||||
Gamma Neutral/Maximum
|
||||
|
||||
The Gamma Neutral price that creates a total market gamma of 0 across all GME options (all expiration dates) for a given date. The Gamma Maximum price creates the maximum total market gamma across all GME options.
|
||||
|
||||
General notes below for observations on how the Gamma Neutral indicator behaves:
|
||||
|
||||
- It acts like support/resistance between the delta neutral and the underlying, and typically bounces around between the two prices for most symbols (like we have seen with GME since April).
|
||||
|
||||
- It also goes crazy in periods of high volatility, as you can see by the very higher spikes.
|
||||
|
||||
- A gamma spike indicates the presence of POTENTAILLY slippery option market conditions, which COULD lead to a gamma squeeze. There were certainly spikes present back in January, but we had a few one-day false starts this last month.
|
||||
|
||||
- They are often triggered by high price movement in a day, which can lead to continue high growth if underlying volume supports it.
|
||||
|
||||
- Gamma spikes can also be triggered by unusual options purchases during the day. These are the one ones to find, because you can often catch the high increase waves before they actually start.
|
||||
|
||||
- If I'm trading this indicator, I often either wait for a gamma spike to continue for 2 days in a row and supported by increased volume. Otherwise, I invest straight away if I find a gamma spike just based on options movement (i.e. no significant underlying increase yet).
|
||||
|
||||
General notes below for observations on how the Gamma Maximum indicator behaves:
|
||||
|
||||
- It generally acts like a ceiling for the underlying stock value
|
||||
|
||||
- However, when the stock breaks through the gamma maximum, fun things happen!
|
||||
|
||||
Methodology
|
||||
|
||||
I write my own algorithms to produce the results above. The following lists some key methodology and assumptions I use:
|
||||
|
||||
- I rely on daily options and stock summaries produced by [www.historicaloptionsdata.com](http://www.historicaloptionsdata.com/)
|
||||
|
||||
- For the Implied Volatility (IV), I use the following method:
|
||||
|
||||
- Calculate the raw IV of the mid-point between bid/ask price at close.
|
||||
|
||||
- Calculate a "blend" IV, which represents the IV where the call/put parity holds, i.e. where call delta -- put delta = 1, using the same IV.
|
||||
|
||||
- Smooth the mid-point call/put and blend IV using a gaussian smoothing algorithm with a 20-strike window.
|
||||
|
||||
- Apply the smoothed call/put relativities to the smoothed blended IV curve
|
||||
|
||||
- Fill any missing values with a linear interpolation of the neighboring strikes.
|
||||
|
||||
- Using the final call/put IV estimates described above, I calculate my own Greeks. I like this source if you're interested in the formulas: <https://www.macroption.com/option-greeks-excel>
|
||||
|
||||
- For the total market delta and total market gamma, I rely on the OI x delta and OI x gamma for each strike price.
|
||||
|
||||
- Note that the delta of a call is usually equal to (1 - put delta), so not adjustment is needed to the delta signs when calculating the total market delta.
|
||||
|
||||
- However, the call/put gammas are both positive based on the B-S calculation. If you're calculating the total gamma for a portfolio, or the total market, you have to add the call gamma and subtract the put gamma.
|
||||
|
||||
- To estimate the delta neutral and the gamma neutral, I have an algorithm that relies on the optimization toolbox in Matlab to identify an underlying price that achieve a total market delta and a total market gamma.
|
||||
|
||||
- Note that the IV would change with higher/lower prices for the delta/gamma neutral and the sensitivity tests, but the impact is not significant enough to make a meaningful difference and takes significant processing time to apply the IV curves. However, it is an important simplifying assumption to be aware of.
|
||||
|
||||
- Open Interest (OI) is always lagged one day for options summaries. The OCC releases final open interest on a given day, and it represents the OI for the close of the prior day. Therefore, the OI I get in my summaries on 6/28 does not represent the OI as of close on 6/28. It represents the OI as of close on 6/25. If you see a source like Yahoo give live OI throughout the day, they are only estimates, and their algorithm methodology for estimating the OI based on various price/volume movement is a closely guarded secret. Using the prior day OI is currently a limitation of the data available to me.
|
||||
|
||||
*Disclaimer: With the recent debate on the sub, I've decided to label my posts as "Possible DD" until someone is able to peer review my work, and independently replicate it. So far, my only proof has been how it works in the field, which means it should not be blindly taken as truth. I think every writer should hold themselves to their own standards, and no one else's. Every aspect of my work is peer reviewed in real life, so this is my own standard. It's also the responsibility of every reader to judge the quality of content they read, and don't take anything at face value. To the moon for us all!*
|
@ -0,0 +1,164 @@
|
||||
Delta Neutral Update: Coming up for Air!
|
||||
========================================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/yelyah2](https://www.reddit.com/user/yelyah2/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/oo5c7t/delta_neutral_update_coming_up_for_air/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
[Possible DD 👨🔬](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22Possible%20DD%20%F0%9F%91%A8%E2%80%8D%F0%9F%94%AC%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||
All - it looks like this could've been a quick trip underneath the Delta Neutral.
|
||||
|
||||
TLDR: Brace yourself for the possibility of hitting the $184 DN mark a couple times before it rebounds back over the DN.
|
||||
|
||||
*Delta/Gamma Neutral Graphs*
|
||||
|
||||
Here's an update to my graph showing the Close Price (green), delta neutral (blue), gamma neutral (orange) and gamma maximum (red). Log-based 10 scale below so you can see the gamma spikes in all their glory!
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/0wrvx6fa3ec71.png?width=910&format=png&auto=webp&s=a46bb78da6a63bb09c17d5c0959697386858693e)
|
||||
|
||||
GME 1/4/2021 - 7/19/2021
|
||||
|
||||
Log based 10 scale to give you a high-level overview
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/nyhliedc3ec71.png?width=910&format=png&auto=webp&s=635ff082bad8e984c2e0ff66efb13e612a24ef53)
|
||||
|
||||
GME 1/4/2021 - 7/19/2021 - Log Based 10
|
||||
|
||||
Quick Background
|
||||
|
||||
My work is built on the idea that the market is largely unpredictable, but one particular kind of behavior is certain - hedgies gonna hedge. It's written into their algorithms. Specifically, they like to delta hedge and gamma hedge. This work tries to profit on this one particular type of buying/selling behavior. If you're lost, please refer to the detailed data dictionary, methodology and assumptions section at the bottom.
|
||||
|
||||
Quick Notes
|
||||
|
||||
Key Points:
|
||||
|
||||
- The Delta Neutral (DN) is currently at $184.
|
||||
|
||||
- Last February, GME was deep under the DN for a couple weeks, which built up a lot of pressure and contributed to its rebound upwards.
|
||||
|
||||
- This trip under the DN only lasted a couple days, so the rebound may not be as violent.
|
||||
|
||||
- I also want to warn you that it may tap against $184 a couple times before rebounding. A few examples below.
|
||||
|
||||
As you can see for Roku below, the underlying close (green) had definitive rebounds back above the DN (dark blue) in March/April, but in May, you can see that it tapped against its DN three times before pushing over.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/q13ak3jz4ec71.png?width=910&format=png&auto=webp&s=f59022d187c8e1cab9892e6ef7a89c8d5b9f22f7)
|
||||
|
||||
ROKU 1/4/2021 - 6/17/2021
|
||||
|
||||
Hard to say what the secret ingredient is for what exactly contributes to the definitive push over the DN versus a couple tests first, but it's likely just some good ol' fashion momentum.
|
||||
|
||||
Here's hoping we decisively push through today!
|
||||
|
||||
Here are a couple options tid-bits for you before I sign off:
|
||||
|
||||
- The 7/16 expirations did help with the call %, which currently sits at 26%, compared to 25% on 2/16 and 22% last Monday.
|
||||
|
||||
- The key part here is the comparison to last Monday, because historically call buyers have been predominately buying cheaper calls for the next expiration date, hoping to get lucky and catch the next MOASS, so historically, there is a big drop in call % between Mondays/Friday, then slowly builds-up during the week.
|
||||
|
||||
- We haven't had a Monday call % this high since 1/25!! That Monday had a 37% call OI, so were not quite at the same level now.
|
||||
|
||||
- Yesterday, 69% of all volume was for this next expiration date, and 64% of that volume were for calls, so hoping we push the call OI up!
|
||||
|
||||
- GME IV/prices are still relatively cheap, so hoping that will lead to more call buyers
|
||||
|
||||
- The overall put IV is still higher than the call IV, indicating higher put buying pressure
|
||||
|
||||
- Similarly, the OTM put IV (-0.25 delta) is still higher than the ATM call IV (0.5 delta), which indicates higher OTM buying pressure, so we're not out of the woods yet.
|
||||
|
||||
- I've seen a lot of talk about gamma squeezes, and I don't think we're anywhere close to one. Last January, the ATM gamma was between 0.07 - 0.18 prior to the squeeze. Last Friday, we were at 0.0004, and there was an uptick up to 0.02 yesterday. We'll see if the upward trend continues.
|
||||
|
||||
TLDR: Brace yourself for the possibility of hitting the $184 DN mark a couple times before it rebounds back over the DN.
|
||||
|
||||
Overview
|
||||
|
||||
In general, all stock indicators boil down to two things - reversion to the mean and momentum. Every trader wants to accurately predict these two forces better than other guy, and if you use different indicators than the other guy, that an give you an 'alpha' in trading if it's a better predictor.
|
||||
|
||||
I make a lot of different indicators, but the two primary ones are the Delta Neutral and Gamma Neutral:
|
||||
|
||||
- Delta Neutral (DN) - This helps identify reversion to the mean, and represents the underlying price that would create a total market delta of 0 across all GME options (all expiration dates) for a given date. In general, it acts like a floor to the underlying price, but if the price drops below the delta neutral, then it tends to shoot back up above that line.
|
||||
|
||||
- This is generally how I trade my model. I watch for stocks that drop below the DN, and buy them, expecting for traders to identify that the stock is underpriced and will revert back to a higher level.
|
||||
|
||||
- Gamma Neutral (GN) and Gamma Maximum (GM) - This helps identify momentum. The GN represents the underlying price that would create a total market gamma of 0 across all GME options (all expiration dates) for a given date, whereas the GM represents the underlying price that would create the maximum gamma across the market.
|
||||
|
||||
- In general, a sudden increase in gamma indicates a sharp upward in momentum that continues until that gamma drops.
|
||||
|
||||
- The GM seems to act like a ceiling, but fun things happen when the underlying crossing that threshold!
|
||||
|
||||
This is my own personal 'alpha' that I developed for my own trading purposes, and am sharing with this community because it's given me back so much. This is not financial advice. I'm just a mathematician that likes to play with options data, and I am not a professional trader.
|
||||
|
||||
*Methodology and Assumptions*
|
||||
|
||||
Delta Neutral
|
||||
|
||||
The Delta Neutral price that creates a total market delta of 0 across all GME options (all expiration dates) for a given date. It can also be though of as the intersection of a supply/demand curve for hedged stocks. See the "Methodology and Assumptions" section for full detail on how I develop this indicator.
|
||||
|
||||
Notes below for general options on how the delta neutral interacts with the underlying price:
|
||||
|
||||
- There is a large influx of call option purchases, because:
|
||||
|
||||
- The call prices get less expensive as the underlying price approaches the delta neutral
|
||||
|
||||
- Stock prices usually rebound/revert back to the mean after large crashes, so the price often rebounds anyways.
|
||||
|
||||
- With the large influx of call volume, market makers have to start buying stocks to delta hedge, which turns the price back around and creates an upward trajectory.
|
||||
|
||||
- Important note that hedgies often hedge with derivatives instead of buying stocks, so there isn't a 1-to-1 relationship between the delta and shares bought/sold by hedge funds.
|
||||
|
||||
- Historically, you can see that GME often bounces off the delta neutral prices during drops. The exception is the February drop. When the underlying goes below the delta neutral price, a lot of pressure builds up that results in a significant increase when that pressure is released.
|
||||
|
||||
- Note this is the primary way that I trade my model. I made a scanner that looks for equities that fall below the delta neutral.
|
||||
|
||||
Gamma Neutral
|
||||
|
||||
The Gamma Neutral price that creates a total market gamma of 0 across all GME options (all expiration dates) for a given date. See the "Methodology and Assumptions" section for full detail on how I develop this indicator.
|
||||
|
||||
General notes below for observations on how this indicator behaves:
|
||||
|
||||
- It acts like support/resistance between the delta neutral and the underlying, and typically bounces around between the two prices for most symbols (like we have seen with GME since April).
|
||||
|
||||
- It also goes crazy in periods of high volatility, as you can see by the very higher spikes.
|
||||
|
||||
- A gamma spike indicates the presence of POTENTAILLY slippery option market conditions, which COULD lead to a gamma squeeze. There were certainly spikes present back in January, but we had a few one-day false starts this last month.
|
||||
|
||||
- They are often triggered by high price movement in a day, which can lead to continue high growth if underlying volume supports it.
|
||||
|
||||
- Gamma spikes can also be triggered by unusual options purchases during the day. These are the one ones to find, because you can often catch the high increase waves before they actually start.
|
||||
|
||||
- If I'm trading this indicator, I often either wait for a gamma spike to continue for 2 days in a row and supported by increased volume. Otherwise, I invest straight away if I find a gamma spike just based on options movement (i.e. no significant underlying increase yet).
|
||||
|
||||
I write my own algorithms to produce the results above. The following lists some key methodology and assumptions I use:
|
||||
|
||||
- I rely on daily options and stock summaries produced by [www.historicaloptionsdata.com](http://www.historicaloptionsdata.com/)
|
||||
|
||||
- For the Implied Volatility (IV), I use the following method:
|
||||
|
||||
- Calculate the raw IV of the mid-point between bid/ask price at close.
|
||||
|
||||
- Calculate a "blend" IV, which represents the IV where the call/put parity holds, i.e. where call delta -- put delta = 1, using the same IV.
|
||||
|
||||
- Smooth the mid-point call/put and blend IV using a gaussian smoothing algorithm with a 20-strike window.
|
||||
|
||||
- Apply the smoothed call/put relativities to the smoothed blended IV curve
|
||||
|
||||
- Fill any missing values with a linear interpolation of the neighboring strikes.
|
||||
|
||||
- Using the final call/put IV estimates described above, I calculate my own Greeks. I like this source if you're interested in the formulas: <https://www.macroption.com/option-greeks-excel>
|
||||
|
||||
- For the total market delta and total market gamma, I rely on the OI x delta and OI x gamma for each strike price.
|
||||
|
||||
- Note that the delta of a call is usually equal to (1 - put delta), so not adjustment is needed to the delta signs when calculating the total market delta.
|
||||
|
||||
- However, the call/put gammas are both positive based on the B-S calculation. If you're calculating the total gamma for a portfolio, or the total market, you have to add the call gamma and subtract the put gamma.
|
||||
|
||||
- To estimate the delta neutral and the gamma neutral, I have an algorithm that relies on the optimization toolbox in Matlab to identify an underlying price that achieve a total market delta and a total market gamma.
|
||||
|
||||
- Note that the IV would change with higher/lower prices for the delta/gamma neutral and the sensitivity tests, but the impact is not significant enough to make a meaningful difference and takes significant processing time to apply the IV curves. However, it is an important simplifying assumption to be aware of.
|
||||
|
||||
- Open Interest (OI) is always lagged one day for options summaries. The OCC releases final open interest on a given day, and it represents the OI for the close of the prior day. Therefore, the OI I get in my summaries on 6/28 does not represent the OI as of close on 6/28. It represents the OI as of close on 6/25. If you see a source like Yahoo give live OI throughout the day, they are only estimates, and their algorithm methodology for estimating the OI based on various price/volume movement is a closely guarded secret. Using the prior day OI is currently a limitation of the data available to me.
|
||||
|
||||
*Disclaimer: I'm just a mathematician that likes to play with options data and builds models to trade for a hobby. I have no experience trading professionally or offering any advice to anyone. This is just one indicator for one type of price movement, and there are many other indicators that can help you make investment decisions.*
|
@ -0,0 +1,154 @@
|
||||
Delta Neutral Update: Blowing Past the DN!
|
||||
==========================================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/yelyah2](https://www.reddit.com/user/yelyah2/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/ooc25b/delta_neutral_update_blowing_past_the_dn/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
[Possible DD 👨🔬](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22Possible%20DD%20%F0%9F%91%A8%E2%80%8D%F0%9F%94%AC%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||
TLDR: We blew past the DN today, and now we have a higher probability of continuing this upward momentum.
|
||||
|
||||
Recap:
|
||||
|
||||
[On 7/13, I called out that we were about to hit the DN, and it will probably mean we'll bounce off it, like we have in the past.](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/ojevhv/knock_knock_knockin_on_delta_neutrals_door/)
|
||||
|
||||
[But we didn't bounce off it, instead we sunk underneath it for the first time since February. I gave an overview of life under the DN.](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/ok4chd/special_edition_down_under_the_delta_neutral/)
|
||||
|
||||
[Today, it looked like we would blow past the DN, and I warned that sometimes stocks bounce off it like a ceiling a couple times before going over.](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/oo5c7t/delta_neutral_update_coming_up_for_air/)
|
||||
|
||||
Today - I'm happy to report that GME was given a choice.... accept the DN as the ceiling like the weakling or push through it... GME made its choice:
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/9yulxdq7tfc71.png?width=268&format=png&auto=webp&s=3af5256082e71d35391525a3536d082c6625e440)
|
||||
|
||||
yessssss......
|
||||
|
||||
And to that I say....
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/bm3i1pfetfc71.png?width=537&format=png&auto=webp&s=071c422f39c69fc121b2c1ea9bfd49cb8c563f68)
|
||||
|
||||
Updated graph below, showing the Close Price (green), delta neutral (blue), gamma neutral (orange) and gamma maximum (red). Log-based 10 scale below so you can see the gamma spikes in all their glory!
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/s2vt0oigtfc71.png?width=910&format=png&auto=webp&s=bf4afc39cdaa6adddfa9ef229dfc953a62f7c94f)
|
||||
|
||||
GME 1/4/2021 - 7/20/2021
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/pnui6sxwtfc71.png?width=910&format=png&auto=webp&s=b750bbb248fb84e25e04e11f1008ef4f6563403a)
|
||||
|
||||
GME 1/4/2021 - 7/20/2021 - log based 10
|
||||
|
||||
Yes, there is a chance it will go back down, bounce of the DN (currently at $185), go back beneath and start all over. However, there is a higher probability that it will keep going up at this point.
|
||||
|
||||
Our next target should be the gamma max point of $241. If we get there, then we should have the max amount of gamma to....
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/tvqppvsoufc71.png?width=1920&format=png&auto=webp&s=bc0ded79f84838e8a0176788f7443f3fc8611869)
|
||||
|
||||
BOOOOOOM!!!
|
||||
|
||||
Here are a couple options tid-bits for you before I sign off:
|
||||
|
||||
- The 7/16 expirations did help with the call %, which is currently up to 28%. Highest it's been since 1/26/2021!
|
||||
|
||||
- 68% of volume was for calls today, so should help push that call OI higher!
|
||||
|
||||
- GME IV/prices are getting higher, so expecting the options buying to cool off a bit.
|
||||
|
||||
- Note that I don't think we're anywhere close to one until we start approaching the gamma max point (~$240). Last January, the ATM gamma was between 0.07 - 0.18 prior to the squeeze. Last Friday, we were at 0.0004, up to 0.02 yesterday and back down to 0.01 today.
|
||||
|
||||
Now it's time for the boring part of our story.....
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/xs87fj3qtfc71.png?width=1284&format=png&auto=webp&s=381b8d2f45c061e51eb8bd1392d961f4c94fec01)
|
||||
|
||||
*yaaawwnn*
|
||||
|
||||
Overview
|
||||
|
||||
In general, all stock indicators boil down to two things - reversion to the mean and momentum. Every trader wants to accurately predict these two forces better than other guy, and if you use different indicators than the other guy, that an give you an 'alpha' in trading if it's a better predictor.
|
||||
|
||||
I make a lot of different indicators, but the two primary ones are the Delta Neutral and Gamma Neutral:
|
||||
|
||||
- Delta Neutral (DN) - This helps identify reversion to the mean, and represents the underlying price that would create a total market delta of 0 across all GME options (all expiration dates) for a given date. In general, it acts like a floor to the underlying price, but if the price drops below the delta neutral, then it tends to shoot back up above that line.
|
||||
|
||||
- This is generally how I trade my model. I watch for stocks that drop below the DN, and buy them, expecting for traders to identify that the stock is underpriced and will revert back to a higher level.
|
||||
|
||||
- Gamma Neutral (GN) and Gamma Maximum (GM) - This helps identify momentum. The GN represents the underlying price that would create a total market gamma of 0 across all GME options (all expiration dates) for a given date, whereas the GM represents the underlying price that would create the maximum gamma across the market.
|
||||
|
||||
- In general, a sudden increase in gamma indicates a sharp upward in momentum that continues until that gamma drops.
|
||||
|
||||
- The GM seems to act like a ceiling, but fun things happen when the underlying crossing that threshold!
|
||||
|
||||
This is my own personal 'alpha' that I developed for my own trading purposes, and am sharing with this community because it's given me back so much. This is not financial advice. I'm just a mathematician that likes to play with options data, and I am not a professional trader.
|
||||
|
||||
*Methodology and Assumptions*
|
||||
|
||||
Delta Neutral
|
||||
|
||||
The Delta Neutral price that creates a total market delta of 0 across all GME options (all expiration dates) for a given date. It can also be though of as the intersection of a supply/demand curve for hedged stocks. See the "Methodology and Assumptions" section for full detail on how I develop this indicator.
|
||||
|
||||
Notes below for general options on how the delta neutral interacts with the underlying price:
|
||||
|
||||
- There is a large influx of call option purchases, because:
|
||||
|
||||
- The call prices get less expensive as the underlying price approaches the delta neutral
|
||||
|
||||
- Stock prices usually rebound/revert back to the mean after large crashes, so the price often rebounds anyways.
|
||||
|
||||
- With the large influx of call volume, market makers have to start buying stocks to delta hedge, which turns the price back around and creates an upward trajectory.
|
||||
|
||||
- Important note that hedgies often hedge with derivatives instead of buying stocks, so there isn't a 1-to-1 relationship between the delta and shares bought/sold by hedge funds.
|
||||
|
||||
- Historically, you can see that GME often bounces off the delta neutral prices during drops. The exception is the February drop. When the underlying goes below the delta neutral price, a lot of pressure builds up that results in a significant increase when that pressure is released.
|
||||
|
||||
- Note this is the primary way that I trade my model. I made a scanner that looks for equities that fall below the delta neutral.
|
||||
|
||||
Gamma Neutral
|
||||
|
||||
The Gamma Neutral price that creates a total market gamma of 0 across all GME options (all expiration dates) for a given date. See the "Methodology and Assumptions" section for full detail on how I develop this indicator.
|
||||
|
||||
General notes below for observations on how this indicator behaves:
|
||||
|
||||
- It acts like support/resistance between the delta neutral and the underlying, and typically bounces around between the two prices for most symbols (like we have seen with GME since April).
|
||||
|
||||
- It also goes crazy in periods of high volatility, as you can see by the very higher spikes.
|
||||
|
||||
- A gamma spike indicates the presence of POTENTAILLY slippery option market conditions, which COULD lead to a gamma squeeze. There were certainly spikes present back in January, but we had a few one-day false starts this last month.
|
||||
|
||||
- They are often triggered by high price movement in a day, which can lead to continue high growth if underlying volume supports it.
|
||||
|
||||
- Gamma spikes can also be triggered by unusual options purchases during the day. These are the one ones to find, because you can often catch the high increase waves before they actually start.
|
||||
|
||||
- If I'm trading this indicator, I often either wait for a gamma spike to continue for 2 days in a row and supported by increased volume. Otherwise, I invest straight away if I find a gamma spike just based on options movement (i.e. no significant underlying increase yet).
|
||||
|
||||
I write my own algorithms to produce the results above. The following lists some key methodology and assumptions I use:
|
||||
|
||||
- I rely on daily options and stock summaries produced by [www.historicaloptionsdata.com](http://www.historicaloptionsdata.com/)
|
||||
|
||||
- For the Implied Volatility (IV), I use the following method:
|
||||
|
||||
- Calculate the raw IV of the mid-point between bid/ask price at close.
|
||||
|
||||
- Calculate a "blend" IV, which represents the IV where the call/put parity holds, i.e. where call delta -- put delta = 1, using the same IV.
|
||||
|
||||
- Smooth the mid-point call/put and blend IV using a gaussian smoothing algorithm with a 20-strike window.
|
||||
|
||||
- Apply the smoothed call/put relativities to the smoothed blended IV curve
|
||||
|
||||
- Fill any missing values with a linear interpolation of the neighboring strikes.
|
||||
|
||||
- Using the final call/put IV estimates described above, I calculate my own Greeks. I like this source if you're interested in the formulas: <https://www.macroption.com/option-greeks-excel>
|
||||
|
||||
- For the total market delta and total market gamma, I rely on the OI x delta and OI x gamma for each strike price.
|
||||
|
||||
- Note that the delta of a call is usually equal to (1 - put delta), so not adjustment is needed to the delta signs when calculating the total market delta.
|
||||
|
||||
- However, the call/put gammas are both positive based on the B-S calculation. If you're calculating the total gamma for a portfolio, or the total market, you have to add the call gamma and subtract the put gamma.
|
||||
|
||||
- To estimate the delta neutral and the gamma neutral, I have an algorithm that relies on the optimization toolbox in Matlab to identify an underlying price that achieve a total market delta and a total market gamma.
|
||||
|
||||
- Note that the IV would change with higher/lower prices for the delta/gamma neutral and the sensitivity tests, but the impact is not significant enough to make a meaningful difference and takes significant processing time to apply the IV curves. However, it is an important simplifying assumption to be aware of.
|
||||
|
||||
- Open Interest (OI) is always lagged one day for options summaries. The OCC releases final open interest on a given day, and it represents the OI for the close of the prior day. Therefore, the OI I get in my summaries on 6/28 does not represent the OI as of close on 6/28. It represents the OI as of close on 6/25. If you see a source like Yahoo give live OI throughout the day, they are only estimates, and their algorithm methodology for estimating the OI based on various price/volume movement is a closely guarded secret. Using the prior day OI is currently a limitation of the data available to me.
|
||||
|
||||
*Disclaimer: I'm just a mathematician that likes to play with options data and builds models to trade for a hobby. I have no experience trading professionally or offering any advice to anyone. This is just one indicator for one type of price movement, and there are many other indicators that can help you make investment decisions.*
|
@ -0,0 +1,13 @@
|
||||
I can't believe you apes are having such trouble understanding Reverse Repos.
|
||||
=============================================================================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/Chumbag_love](https://www.reddit.com/user/Chumbag_love/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/oh4lyz/i_cant_believe_you_apes_are_having_such_trouble/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
|
||||
[Education 👨🏫 | Data 🔢](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22Education%20%F0%9F%91%A8%E2%80%8D%F0%9F%8F%AB%20%7C%20Data%20%F0%9F%94%A2%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://i.redd.it/95kgcm5249a71.png)
|
@ -0,0 +1,12 @@
|
||||
🔴Daily Reverse Repo Update 07/07: $785.720B🔴
|
||||
==============================================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/pctracer](https://www.reddit.com/user/pctracer/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/ofnful/daily_reverse_repo_update_0707_785720b/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
[Education 👨🏫 | Data 🔢](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22Education%20%F0%9F%91%A8%E2%80%8D%F0%9F%8F%AB%20%7C%20Data%20%F0%9F%94%A2%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||

|
@ -0,0 +1,12 @@
|
||||
🔴Daily Reverse Repo Update 07/08: $793.399B🔴
|
||||
==============================================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/pctracer](https://www.reddit.com/user/pctracer/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/ogbrfh/daily_reverse_repo_update_0708_793399b/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
[Education 👨🏫 | Data 🔢](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22Education%20%F0%9F%91%A8%E2%80%8D%F0%9F%8F%AB%20%7C%20Data%20%F0%9F%94%A2%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||

|
@ -0,0 +1,12 @@
|
||||
🔴Daily Reverse Repo Update 07/09: $780.596B🔴
|
||||
==============================================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/pctracer](https://www.reddit.com/user/pctracer/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/oh09j2/daily_reverse_repo_update_0709_780596b/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
[Education 👨🏫 | Data 🔢](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22Education%20%F0%9F%91%A8%E2%80%8D%F0%9F%8F%AB%20%7C%20Data%20%F0%9F%94%A2%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||

|
@ -0,0 +1,12 @@
|
||||
🔴Daily Reverse Repo Update 07/12: $776.472B🔴
|
||||
==============================================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/pctracer](https://www.reddit.com/user/pctracer/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/oivs13/daily_reverse_repo_update_0712_776472b/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
[Education 👨🏫 | Data 🔢](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22Education%20%F0%9F%91%A8%E2%80%8D%F0%9F%8F%AB%20%7C%20Data%20%F0%9F%94%A2%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||

|
@ -0,0 +1,12 @@
|
||||
🔴Daily Reverse Repo Update 07/13: $798.267B🔴
|
||||
==============================================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/pctracer](https://www.reddit.com/user/pctracer/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/ojk6za/daily_reverse_repo_update_0713_798267b/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
[Education 👨🏫 | Data 🔢](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22Education%20%F0%9F%91%A8%E2%80%8D%F0%9F%8F%AB%20%7C%20Data%20%F0%9F%94%A2%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||

|
@ -0,0 +1,12 @@
|
||||
🔴Daily Reverse Repo Update 07/14: $859.975B🔴
|
||||
==============================================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/pctracer](https://www.reddit.com/user/pctracer/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/ok8ydt/daily_reverse_repo_update_0714_859975b/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
[Education 👨🏫 | Data 🔢](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22Education%20%F0%9F%91%A8%E2%80%8D%F0%9F%8F%AB%20%7C%20Data%20%F0%9F%94%A2%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||

|
@ -0,0 +1,12 @@
|
||||
🔴Daily Reverse Repo Update 07/15: $776.261B🔴
|
||||
==============================================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/pctracer](https://www.reddit.com/user/pctracer/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/okxcsu/daily_reverse_repo_update_0715_776261b/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
[Education 👨🏫 | Data 🔢](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22Education%20%F0%9F%91%A8%E2%80%8D%F0%9F%8F%AB%20%7C%20Data%20%F0%9F%94%A2%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||

|
@ -0,0 +1,12 @@
|
||||
🔴Daily Reverse Repo Update 07/16: $817.566B🔴
|
||||
==============================================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/pctracer](https://www.reddit.com/user/pctracer/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/olldqj/daily_reverse_repo_update_0716_817566b/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
[Education 👨🏫 | Data 🔢](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22Education%20%F0%9F%91%A8%E2%80%8D%F0%9F%8F%AB%20%7C%20Data%20%F0%9F%94%A2%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||

|
@ -0,0 +1,12 @@
|
||||
🔴Daily Reverse Repo Update 07/19: $860.468B🔴
|
||||
==============================================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/pctracer](https://www.reddit.com/user/pctracer/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/onik91/daily_reverse_repo_update_0719_860468b/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
[Education 👨🏫 | Data 🔢](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22Education%20%F0%9F%91%A8%E2%80%8D%F0%9F%8F%AB%20%7C%20Data%20%F0%9F%94%A2%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||

|
@ -0,0 +1,12 @@
|
||||
🔴Daily Reverse Repo Update 07/20: $848.102B🔴
|
||||
==============================================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/pctracer](https://www.reddit.com/user/pctracer/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/oo6i49/daily_reverse_repo_update_0720_848102b/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
[Education 👨🏫 | Data 🔢](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22Education%20%F0%9F%91%A8%E2%80%8D%F0%9F%8F%AB%20%7C%20Data%20%F0%9F%94%A2%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||

|
@ -0,0 +1,265 @@
|
||||
The Chronicles of Short & Shorter, Ep. 1: Before the January Sneeze
|
||||
===================================================================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/nydus_erdos](https://www.reddit.com/user/nydus_erdos/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/ogi75b/the_chronicles_of_short_shorter_ep_1_before_the/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
|
||||
[DD 👨🔬](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22DD%20%F0%9F%91%A8%E2%80%8D%F0%9F%94%AC%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||
Disclaimer: Not financial advice. I've put a disproportionate amount of time into this for free, I clearly do not make good decisions, except for GME of course. This is at best, fancier napkin math.
|
||||
|
||||
ALL POSTS BUILD ON EACH OTHER. IF THERE'S SOMETHING THAT SEEMS LIKE I GLOSS OVER HERE, YOU'LL LIKELY FIND IT (IN DETAIL) IN MY PREVIOUS POSTS: [Vol. 1](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nw8281/math_black_magic_vol_1_why_it_is_mathematically/), [Vol. 2](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nwy0oz/math_black_magic_vol_2_the_limit_does_not_exist/), [Vol. 3](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nya5ps/math_black_magic_vol_3_trillion_short_share_seance/), [Epilogue](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/odrnbv/math_black_magic_final_vol_epilogue/), [Microeconomic Primer](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/of1lz2/malleus_oeconomica_a_compressed_primer/)
|
||||
|
||||
Main Sources: [Finnerty Paper](https://www.sec.gov/comments/s7-08-08/s70808-318.pdf), [Microeconomics 7th Edition by Jeffrey M. Perloff](http://dl.rasabourse.com/MIT.Mircroeconomics.Jeffrey%20M.%20Perloff%20-%20Microeconomics%20(2014,%20Pearson).pdf)
|
||||
|
||||
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
|
||||
|
||||
A. Intro
|
||||
|
||||
I thought for a long time for a concise way to describe this series. Unfortunately for you, I am ape-tarded and no matter how hard I tried, this kept repeating in my head. I apologize in advance.
|
||||
|
||||
([Begin drum loop](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JgLcJFad90I))
|
||||
|
||||
Nobody: Hey Nydus, can you tell us a bedtime story?
|
||||
|
||||
Ok, heeerrre we go:
|
||||
|
||||
Once upon a time not long ago
|
||||
|
||||
When people went long and invested slow
|
||||
|
||||
When laws were stern and justice stood
|
||||
|
||||
And people were investin' like they ought to: good
|
||||
|
||||
There was little Gabe who his broke bread
|
||||
|
||||
With another Kenny boy and this is what he said:
|
||||
|
||||
"Me, you and Steve are gonna make some G's
|
||||
|
||||
Shorting inelastic curves and makin' FTDs"
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/h3pm3f5yu1a71.png?width=960&format=png&auto=webp&s=38b8a860a22c6e65827337655485cbe3e2e299c8)
|
||||
|
||||
I DID NOT MAKE THIS! IT WAS ORIGINALLY POSTED BY u/MisterFinishLine.! https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nii1s6/short_shorter/
|
||||
|
||||
I DID NOT MAKE THIS MEME! CREDIT IN THE CAPTION!
|
||||
|
||||
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
|
||||
|
||||
B. Assumptions
|
||||
|
||||
*SHORTS HAVE NOT COVERED*
|
||||
|
||||
Before I get into this one, read these excerpts from Finnerty's paper:
|
||||
|
||||
> "Naked short selling and manipulating the price downward provide cash returns to the manipulator, who can withdraw cash from his clearing firm account as the shorted shares are marked to market at progressively lower prices. Through naked shorting, the manipulator realizes these returns without investing any cash (provided the market price never rises above the sale price)." (Pg. 34, par. 1)
|
||||
|
||||
> "The clearing firm retains the cash proceeds from the short sale to secure the selling broker's delivery obligation. The clearing firm releases cash equal to the reduction in value of the shorted shares as the price of the shares declines (or demands additional cash margin if the share price rises)." (Pg. 34, footnote 51)
|
||||
|
||||
Yes, you read that correctly. Naked short selling is pretty much FREE MONEY. On top of this, finance is OBSESSED with maximization. Finnerty mentions it frequently, and the calculus behind all this stuff is pretty maximization problems.
|
||||
|
||||
What I'm saying is, we're familiar with Citadel and Co.'s natural inclination towards all consuming greed has been further sharpened by mathematical indoctrination. Ultimately, Kenny and Co. maximize their profit by never closing their FTDs. Why would they? Who was gonna check?
|
||||
|
||||
There is also a mathematical basis:
|
||||
|
||||
> "The manipulator maximizes his profit by...naked shorting *P(3)* close to zero. The manipulator should sell short *A/(3B)* shares at time 1 resulting in *P(1) = 2A/3*...He should sell short an additional *A/(3B)* shares at time 2...The manipulator drives *P(3)* close to zero by adjusting the short position to *L/B* shares. If *L > 2A/3*, the manipulator will increase his short position; otherwise, he will decrease it."(Pg. 55, par. 1)
|
||||
|
||||
The only scenario where they could've reduced their position would conflict with our known Janurary SI. This also makes the calculations much more simple, as I don't have to worry about subtracting shares covered.
|
||||
|
||||
Along with this, Finnerty also describes a situation that might sound familiar:
|
||||
|
||||
> "...suppose the manipulator realizes at time 2 that the firm's share price the next period will be H, rather than L as originally expected, say, due to favorable developments in the firm's business. Suppose further that the securities regulators or the clearing house require all securities dealers to clear up all fails to deliver. The manipulator would face potentially large losses on his short sales. By short selling an additional 2A/(3B) shares at time 2, he can drive the share price close to zero" (Pg. 56, par. 3)
|
||||
|
||||
The quantity *2A/3B* is double the amount the manipulator usually sells at time 2, which indicates to me that they have to increase the magnitude of their attack to compensate. Past the Sneeze, I don't see how they would keep up such aggressive price suppression without increasing their position, especially when it was undeniable that this was a high value company.
|
||||
|
||||
*MONOPOLY MARKET*
|
||||
|
||||
Citadel and Co.'s market marking privileges have allowed them to form a monopoly on GME shares. They are the only suppliers. They have full direct control of quantity of output and indirect control over price. Assuming monopoly market simplifies calculations in that we do not have to consider actions from other players.
|
||||
|
||||
*INELASTIC DEMAND CURVE*
|
||||
|
||||
Basically, this means that the quantity demanded does not change much in response to a change in price and demand will at least stay constant. Throughout my calculations, only the inelastic value consistently provided reasonable answers. This also makes sense as we know even before the Sneeze there were diamond hands who knew the ~~value~~ deep fucking value of the company. From what I got, it appears that the only time apes had an elastic demand curve was when they turned off the buy button.
|
||||
|
||||
*NO SUPPLY CURVE, ONLY DEMAND*
|
||||
|
||||
Biggest thing I discovered is that short selling in general is that it defies the very law of supply. Instead of a producer supplying less as the price gets lower, naked short sellers supply more as the price gets lower. They can afford to since, until recently, naked short selling had zero cost.
|
||||
|
||||
On top of this, monopolies do not have supply curves. This lack of a supply curve makes a monopoly's output decision dependent on the shapes of its marginal cost curve and the market demand curve.
|
||||
|
||||
Because those reasons, I assume that price behavior over time is highly related to market demand, in that the elasticity (normalized/unitless) from the Price vs.Time charts is analogous to the elasticity on the market demand curve (Price vs. Quantity)
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/dhddnm6a32a71.png?width=612&format=png&auto=webp&s=0cea57adf59d86cc879d0a35d92b687439e97174)
|
||||
|
||||
Elasticity Assumption
|
||||
|
||||
*DOUBLE-HALF CONJECTURE*
|
||||
|
||||
The paper lays out the general strategy of a manipulator who is aggressively naked shorting a stock. Basically, the manipulator naked shorts a certain amount of shares based on a formula taking into account current market price, various probabilities, etc, etc. By the end of the paper, Finnerty proves mathematically that the manipulator must naked short at least as many shares as the firm has outstanding in order to short a companies price close to zero, not zero!. Side note, the reason its not zero is because:
|
||||
|
||||
> "The manipulated price could be less than a penny if market convention allows quotations in a fraction of a cent, as for example the OTCBB market does" (Pg. 11, footnote 21)
|
||||
|
||||
Anyway, the point is this strategy of shorting usually leaves a pattern. The first attack drops the price by about one-third (~33%), the second cuts that price in half (~50%) and the third kicks it down close to zero. Around the time the price is cut in half the manipulator has naked shorted the same amount of shares outstanding.
|
||||
|
||||
> "If *L > A/3*, the manipulator will naked short more shares than the firm has outstanding. The share price is *P(2) = A/3*, which is half what it was at time 1."
|
||||
|
||||
> "...if *L = A/3*, then the manipulator would naked short the same number of shares the firm has outstanding, doubling the float. He would halve the short position at time 3 to *A/(3B)*, restoring it to what it was at time 1. The strategic fail substantially decreases at the same time the share price declines because the intrinsic value of the shares decreases."
|
||||
|
||||
Going on this I assume that every time the price is approximately cut in half, the naked short seller has doubled the shares in existence.
|
||||
|
||||
*PROFIT STRATEGY*
|
||||
|
||||
They started short selling on the inelastic part of the demand curve. Normally, a monopoly wants to work on the elastic part of the demand curve. However, if you naked short sell an elastic curve the price will drop quicker with less shares shorted. I think its possible that Short, Shorter & Co. figured they could maximize profit by naked short selling on an inelastic demand curve, as they could short more shares over time since it takes more short shares to affect an inelastic demand curve.
|
||||
|
||||
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
|
||||
|
||||
C. Duration & Timeline
|
||||
|
||||
Einstein said the only infinite things are the universe and human stupidity. Were he alive today I'd ask him if he could human greed as well. To truly grasp how greedy, I'll run you through my estimation of the total duration of their short postion until the Sneeze.
|
||||
|
||||
From the price action, it looks Short, Shorter & Co. opened their short position approximately December 2015, going until December 2020 is:
|
||||
|
||||
- 5 calendar years
|
||||
|
||||
- 3.45 trading years
|
||||
|
||||
- 868 trading days
|
||||
|
||||
(Note: there about 252 trading days in a year. Almost exactly 69 percent (lol) of a calendar year)
|
||||
|
||||
I wanted to start with general data, so I eyeballed the Google chart of GME and these immediately stood out to me. We will be looking at the following dates (all approximate!):
|
||||
|
||||
- Time 0, October 30 2015. Initial conditions, price was approximately $46.14
|
||||
|
||||
- Time 1, July 29, 2016. Price dropped approximately 33% from about $46.14 and leveled out around $30.76
|
||||
|
||||
- Time 2, April 6, 2018. Price dropped by approximately 50 percent from $30.76 and leveled out around $15.38
|
||||
|
||||
- Time 3, Aug. 9 2019. Price dropped 75 percent from approximately $15.38 and leveled out around $3.85
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/jenb5en592a71.png?width=896&format=png&auto=webp&s=da1d4898f8ee2c771d437d167bc12ad954e362ff)
|
||||
|
||||
Price Chart
|
||||
|
||||
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
|
||||
|
||||
D. Equations and Variables
|
||||
|
||||
*FINNERTY FORMULAS*
|
||||
|
||||
These were closely examined in previous posts.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/w3fbaf2962a71.png?width=875&format=png&auto=webp&s=836d4bf51d27178da145dbcd418774628918a6b6)
|
||||
|
||||
Quantity Shorted
|
||||
|
||||
*HOW IS B DETERMINED?*
|
||||
|
||||
Also examined in previous posts.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/p5a216lr62a71.png?width=863&format=png&auto=webp&s=bf11d3228ae16f8e4f8e34bcc3fedf78c471b5e1)
|
||||
|
||||
Elasticity
|
||||
|
||||
*HOW IS A DETERMINED*
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/74xghtf972a71.png?width=877&format=png&auto=webp&s=d9a72646f9e7b0d7800d73cc584f52b9aa2dec5e)
|
||||
|
||||
Variable A
|
||||
|
||||
*HOW IS L DETERMINED*
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/66ockp4n72a71.png?width=885&format=png&auto=webp&s=dc91a802870b1c531ae45c65e78061f1c782edfe)
|
||||
|
||||
Variable L
|
||||
|
||||
*HOW H IS DETERMINED*
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/wg1yccku72a71.png?width=899&format=png&auto=webp&s=f51208f3bcb63d6c3093677ebedf4d6c6b3c9218)
|
||||
|
||||
Variable H
|
||||
|
||||
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
|
||||
|
||||
E. Results
|
||||
|
||||
*LOW ESTIMATE*
|
||||
|
||||
(In millions of shares; negative numbers imply that they decreased their position)
|
||||
|
||||
Chart 1.
|
||||
|
||||
| Time | Quantity Shorted (Q) |
|
||||
| --- | --- |
|
||||
| 1 | 51.788 |
|
||||
| 2 | 51.793 |
|
||||
| 3 | -18.912 |
|
||||
|
||||
Chart 2.
|
||||
|
||||
| Total Q at Time 2 | 103.58 |
|
||||
| --- | --- |
|
||||
| SI at Time 2 | 147% |
|
||||
| Total Q at Time 3 | 84.67 |
|
||||
| SI at Time 3 | 120% |
|
||||
|
||||
*HIGH ESTIMATE*
|
||||
|
||||
Chart 3.
|
||||
|
||||
| Time | Quantity Shorted (Q) |
|
||||
| --- | --- |
|
||||
| 1 | 51.788 |
|
||||
| 2 | 51.793 |
|
||||
| 3 | 122.49 |
|
||||
|
||||
Chart 4.
|
||||
|
||||
| Total Q at Time 2 | 103.58 |
|
||||
| --- | --- |
|
||||
| SI at Time 2 | 147% |
|
||||
| Total Q at Time 3 | 226.07 |
|
||||
| SI at Time 3 | 320% |
|
||||
|
||||
*AVERAGE OF H AND L*
|
||||
|
||||
Chart 5.
|
||||
|
||||
| Time | Quantity Shorted (Q) |
|
||||
| --- | --- |
|
||||
| 1 | 51.788 |
|
||||
| 2 | 51.793 |
|
||||
| 3 | 51.788 |
|
||||
|
||||
Chart 6.
|
||||
|
||||
| Total Q at Time 2 | 103.58 |
|
||||
| --- | --- |
|
||||
| SI at Time 2 | 147% |
|
||||
| Total Q at Time 3 | 155.37 |
|
||||
| SI at Time 3 | 220% |
|
||||
|
||||
F. Conclusion
|
||||
|
||||
Notice how that by time 2, when the price halves they had shorted more shares than shares outstanding.
|
||||
|
||||
Additionally, the best estimate we have of pre-Sneeze SI is from the Robinhood filing that lists ~225%. The average value was consistent with that.
|
||||
|
||||
I used this timeframe of estimates as a calibration of sorts and the model seems to hold here.
|
||||
|
||||
G. Next Post
|
||||
|
||||
I'll use the method described here to estimate how many shares were shorted during the Sneeze. The following post will cover after the Sneeze up to mid April 2021
|
||||
|
||||
H. TL;DR
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/kzvj5fxzd2a71.png?width=942&format=png&auto=webp&s=919c30110dbfbc4d746b16c59ed5ae95f5e0d4a4)
|
||||
|
||||
I DID NOT MAKE THIS! ORIGINAL MEME POSTED BY u/Archisaurus, https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/oev08e/this_is_my_brain_going_through_the_due_diligence/
|
||||
|
||||
I DID NOT MAKE THIS MEME TEMPLATE! CREDIT IN THE CAPTION!
|
@ -0,0 +1,227 @@
|
||||
The Chronicles Of Short & Shorter, Ep. 2: During the January Sneeze
|
||||
===================================================================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/nydus_erdos](https://www.reddit.com/user/nydus_erdos/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/oh8fcz/the_chronicles_of_short_shorter_ep_2_during_the/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
|
||||
[DD 👨🔬](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22DD%20%F0%9F%91%A8%E2%80%8D%F0%9F%94%AC%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||
Disclaimer: Not financial advice. I've put a disproportionate amount of time into this for free, I clearly do not make good decisions. Though I continually strive to improve this model it is, at best, just fancier napkin math.
|
||||
|
||||
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
|
||||
|
||||
Quick Descriptions of my Previous Posts, if something doesn't make sense its probably in here:
|
||||
|
||||
[Math Black Magic, Vol. 1: Why It Is Mathematically Impossible for Hedgies To Unfuk Themselves](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nw8281/math_black_magic_vol_1_why_it_is_mathematically/)
|
||||
|
||||
- If you only read one post, read this one
|
||||
|
||||
- TL;DR => Finance professor John Finnerty mathematically proves that it's impossible to short a stock to zero without naked shorting at least as many shares as there are outstanding, doubling the float in the process.
|
||||
|
||||
[Math Black Magic, Vol 2: The Limit Does Not Exist!](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nwy0oz/math_black_magic_vol_2_the_limit_does_not_exist/)
|
||||
|
||||
- This one touches on the price pattern of the short attacks
|
||||
|
||||
- TL;DR => At this point, the number of shares needed to short $GME to zero does not mathematically exist.
|
||||
|
||||
[Math Black Magic, Vol. 3: Trillion Short Share Seance](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nya5ps/math_black_magic_vol_3_trillion_short_share_seance/)
|
||||
|
||||
- TL;DR => I try to make estimates of shares shorted based on the known equations and data at that time. I stand by the methods, but they needed more refinement. Which leads to the following volume...
|
||||
|
||||
[Math Black Magic, Final Vol: Epilogue](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/odrnbv/math_black_magic_final_vol_epilogue/)
|
||||
|
||||
- TL;DR => I made this post as a sort of correction. I went through the model again and tightened it up and got an answer I feel much more confident in
|
||||
|
||||
[Malleus Oeconomica: A Compressed Primer](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/of1lz2/malleus_oeconomica_a_compressed_primer/)
|
||||
|
||||
- In Short & Shorter, I use several economic concepts and equations that need a little explaining first.
|
||||
|
||||
- TL;DR => This is already a compressed post. I can't really put it any simpler than I do in the post.
|
||||
|
||||
[The Chronicles of Short & Shorter, Ep. 1: During the January Sneeze](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/ogi75b/the_chronicles_of_short_shorter_ep_1_before_the/)
|
||||
|
||||
- This is the first step of the process from which I got my revised shares shorted count. I try to dissect their shorting strategy and quantity shorted from 2015 to before the January Sneeze.
|
||||
|
||||
- This post could really use some love as it got downvoted to oblivion by shills.
|
||||
|
||||
- TL;DR => scroll to bottom of this post
|
||||
|
||||
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
|
||||
|
||||
A. Intro
|
||||
|
||||
This is still stuck in my head from the last post. Once again very sorry:
|
||||
|
||||
([Begin drum loop](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JgLcJFad90I))
|
||||
|
||||
Absolutely nobody: Hey Nydus, can you tell us a bedtime story?
|
||||
|
||||
Ok, heeerrre we go:
|
||||
|
||||
Once upon a time not long ago
|
||||
|
||||
When people went long and invested slow
|
||||
|
||||
When laws were stern and justice stood
|
||||
|
||||
And people were investin' like they ought to: good
|
||||
|
||||
There was little Gabe who broke his bread
|
||||
|
||||
With another Kenny boy and this is what he said:
|
||||
|
||||
"Me, you and Steve are gonna make some G's
|
||||
|
||||
Shorting inelastic curves and makin' FTDs"
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/rlpmt8sv5aa71.png?width=960&format=png&auto=webp&s=a65ee9fcfc3acc396a6d44fa3158faa631903807)
|
||||
|
||||
I DID NOT MAKE THIS! IT WAS ORIGINALLY POSTED BY u/MisterFinishLine.! https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nii1s6/short_shorter/
|
||||
|
||||
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
|
||||
|
||||
B. Timeframe
|
||||
|
||||
- (Magenta circles denote time points)
|
||||
|
||||
- Time 0 - Squeeze peaked Jan. 27; P(0) = $357.51
|
||||
|
||||
- Buy Button turned off Jan. 28
|
||||
|
||||
- Time 1 - Feb 1 (3 trading days from time 0); P(1) = $214.51
|
||||
|
||||
- Time 2 - Feb 3 (5 trading days from time 0); P(2) = $85.80
|
||||
|
||||
- Time 3 - Feb 4 (6 trading days from time 0); P(3) = $51.48
|
||||
|
||||
- On approximately Feb. 10 (10 days from time 0) price settled out at ~$45
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/hx80j4xz5aa71.png?width=1085&format=png&auto=webp&s=7c8f2959588bd59a9430a81f24969f41a34bbe28)
|
||||
|
||||
Time Frame
|
||||
|
||||
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
|
||||
|
||||
C. Additional Assumptions
|
||||
|
||||
The full list of my assumptions can be found in Ep. 1. See links at top of post.
|
||||
|
||||
*SHORT ATTACK MAGNITUDE IS ALWAYS MAXIMUM*
|
||||
|
||||
In the last post, I mentioned an excerpt from Finnerty's paper, which should sound familiar:
|
||||
|
||||
> "...suppose the manipulator realizes at time 2 that the firm's share price the next period will be *H*, rather than *L* as originally expected, say, due to favorable developments in the firm's business. Suppose further that the securities regulators or the clearing house require all securities dealers to clear up all fails to deliver. The manipulator would face potentially large losses on his short sales. By short selling an additional *2A/(3B)* shares at time 2, he can drive the share price close to zero." (Pg. 56, par. 3)
|
||||
|
||||
The quantity *2A/3B* is double the amount the manipulator usually sells at time 2, which indicates to me that they have to increase the magnitude of their short attacks to compensate for the change to a higher value. I will not be using the quantity strategy described above as its mathematical parameters are different, but the I feel the circumstantial similarity provides reasonable basis to assume that during and after the Sneeze, they were always shorting the maximum amount of shares.
|
||||
|
||||
With all this in mind, and the fact that GME is a *H* company, I will no longer calculate/use variable *L*.
|
||||
|
||||
*ELASTIC DEMAND CURVE*
|
||||
|
||||
This assumptions ONLY applies to during the Sneeze as a result of them turning off the buy button. Using the elastic coefficient resulted in the lowest reasonable estimates as well. This makes sense as they can manipulate an elastic demand curve with less shares.
|
||||
|
||||
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
|
||||
|
||||
D. Price Pattern
|
||||
|
||||
With buy pressure pretty much neutralized. Its hard for me to judge the how much each contributed to price drop. I tried to identify if there were any clear trends. The first attack dropped price by 40 percent (normally it drops 33 percent), the second by 60 percent (normally it drops 50 percent) and the third by 40 percent (normally takes price close to zero). Not too much deviation, in fact, I expected more, but I assume that letting us buy limited amounts of shares on the way down stiffened out demand curve a little to maximize their profit.
|
||||
|
||||
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
|
||||
|
||||
E. Equations & Variables
|
||||
|
||||
FINNERTY FORMULAS
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/639fdtm76aa71.png?width=919&format=png&auto=webp&s=aaef42f88d1fa548228c36058666c33e0cc43d63)
|
||||
|
||||
Quantity Shorted
|
||||
|
||||
VARIABLE *B*
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/wsffrq9d6aa71.png?width=977&format=png&auto=webp&s=41b1023387afaef03ffa27804d227684807f2e83)
|
||||
|
||||
Elasticity
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/qzp3pn2k6aa71.png?width=851&format=png&auto=webp&s=7351cf0e65d49b0a9f5dbf9f1e4c4b81fe6b29aa)
|
||||
|
||||
Variable B
|
||||
|
||||
VARIABLE *A*
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/lxb615ps6aa71.png?width=980&format=png&auto=webp&s=20b127a5820b6fc1a3dc5f31c05997bb30a01cc8)
|
||||
|
||||
Variable A
|
||||
|
||||
VARIABLE *H*
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/weweuttv6aa71.png?width=949&format=png&auto=webp&s=02d60421b9608da3c743857227e8943251a5f8b2)
|
||||
|
||||
Variable H
|
||||
|
||||
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
|
||||
|
||||
F. Results
|
||||
|
||||
(Share counts in millions)
|
||||
|
||||
Chart 1: Shares Shorted During Sneeze
|
||||
|
||||
| Time (t) | Quantity Shorted |
|
||||
|
||||
| --- | --- |
|
||||
|
||||
| Time 1 | 62.642 |
|
||||
|
||||
| Time 2 | 62.648 |
|
||||
|
||||
| Time 3 | 133.35 |
|
||||
|
||||
Chart 2: Totals from During Sneeze ONLY
|
||||
|
||||
| Total Shorted Shares at Time 2 | 125.29 |
|
||||
|
||||
| --- | --- |
|
||||
|
||||
| SI at Time 2 | 177% |
|
||||
|
||||
| Total Shorted Shares at Time 3 | 258.64 |
|
||||
|
||||
| SI at Time 3 | 366% |
|
||||
|
||||
Chart 3: Cumulative Counts (Pre-Sneeze + During Sneeze)
|
||||
|
||||
| Shares Shorted from Pre-Sneeze | 155.37 |
|
||||
|
||||
| --- | --- |
|
||||
|
||||
| Pre-Sneeze SI | 220% |
|
||||
|
||||
| Cumulative Shorted Shares at this Point | 414.01 |
|
||||
|
||||
| Cumulative SI at this Point | 586% |
|
||||
|
||||
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
|
||||
|
||||
G. Conclusions
|
||||
|
||||
Notice how that by time 2, when the price halves they had shorted more shares than shares outstanding and by the end of time 3 they have shorted about the same amount of shares they had shorted Pre-Sneeze.
|
||||
|
||||
The more I extrapolate I assume my margin of error grows, but I still feel confident in these answers. I believe this is where reached a point that they were no longer able to drop us back down to $40. I feel like my hypotheses don't fully explain why though. Input is appreciated.
|
||||
|
||||
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
|
||||
|
||||
H. Next Post
|
||||
|
||||
We'll look at the time period after the January Sneeze to approximately mid-April 2021
|
||||
|
||||
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
|
||||
|
||||
I. TL;DR
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/gnbf87om5aa71.png?width=942&format=png&auto=webp&s=8908903c227c14ef950e94142d9d65589ac21ca0)
|
||||
|
||||
I DID NOT MAKE THIS! ORIGINAL MEME POSTED BY u/Archisaurus, https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/oev08e/this_is_my_brain_going_through_the_due_diligence/
|
@ -0,0 +1,548 @@
|
||||
[3/3] The Ultimate DD guide to the moon!!. Crazy Melon
|
||||
======================================================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/sydneyfriendlycub](https://www.reddit.com/user/sydneyfriendlycub/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/comments/n2hjnk/33_the_ultimate_dd_guide_to_the_moon_crazy_melon/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
[🔬 DD 📊](https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/search?q=flair_name%3A%22%F0%9F%94%AC%20DD%20%F0%9F%93%8A%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||
THIS IS FOR YOU MY APES!! None of this is financial advice. I'm a retarded ape playing with crayons and keys.
|
||||
|
||||
This message should reach every ape to help!
|
||||
|
||||
CONTENTS:
|
||||
|
||||
[PART 1](https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/comments/n2hgxq/13_the_ultimate_dd_guide_to_the_moon_crazy_melon/)
|
||||
|
||||
- US DOLLAR BACKING
|
||||
|
||||
- OVERVIEW OF KENNY'S/SHITADEL'S FUCKERY EXPOSED!
|
||||
|
||||
- HOW IS KENNY WASHING THE MONEY?
|
||||
|
||||
- TRUST BONDS: The basket of bonds INFITINE MONEY GLITCH!!!
|
||||
|
||||
- BIG BANKS ARE HOLDINGS COMPANIES???? WHAT IS THAT?
|
||||
|
||||
[PART 2](https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/comments/n2hhhn/23_the_ultimate_dd_guide_to_the_moon_crazy_melon/)
|
||||
|
||||
- HOW AND WHY TO BANKRUPT COMPANIES
|
||||
|
||||
- QUICK RECAP MIXING GME IN:
|
||||
|
||||
- THE MASSIVE REAL ESTATE SCAM!
|
||||
|
||||
- KENNY SCAMMING AROUND THE WORLD
|
||||
|
||||
- WHAT HAPPENS AFTER THE COMPANY GOES BANKRUPT??
|
||||
|
||||
- THE PANDEMIC STIMULUS: The beginning of the end of Kenny
|
||||
|
||||
- KENNY'S FUCK UP!!
|
||||
|
||||
PART 3
|
||||
|
||||
- THE ENDGAME: INEVITABLE! NO FUD
|
||||
|
||||
- SUMMARY
|
||||
|
||||
- TL;DR1:
|
||||
|
||||
- BURRY CONCERN: HYPERINFLATION
|
||||
|
||||
- LIBOR to SOFR
|
||||
|
||||
- TL;DR2 :
|
||||
|
||||
---------------------------------------- CONTINUE!!
|
||||
|
||||
PART 3
|
||||
|
||||
---------------------------------------
|
||||
|
||||
NEW!!!!
|
||||
|
||||
KENNY KENNY KENNETH: A little bit of history..
|
||||
|
||||
"Kenny, Kenny.... Let's all learn a little about Kenny past. Kenneth Cordele Griffin was born October 15, 1968. For a majority of his life he attended Boca Raton Community High School. It was a public school, where he was the head of the finance club... No, actually he was president of Math Club.
|
||||
|
||||
His investing career actually was initiated at the Cabot House as an undergraduate at Haaaaarvard. He must have learned to pay off the right people as he was able to get a satellite dish placed on the roof. His initial ride was with convertible bonds, with was powered from his late grandma to the tune of 265 K. Not a bad chunk of change to begin your investing career. So where did Ken break out &amp;amp; how did he do it? Well no other way than to short stock and have the stock market crash of '87.
|
||||
|
||||
Kenny pushin' them shorts this whole time. It's too cold to be wearin' shorts in those Chicago winters. Da' Frostbite appears to be setting in."
|
||||
|
||||
<https://www.chicagomag.com/Chicago-Magazine/June-2011/The-File-on-Citadels-Ken-Griffin/>
|
||||
|
||||
FOOL ME ONCE..It's on me! FOOL ME TWICE..Really? *Courtesy of that amazing silverback, you know who!*
|
||||
|
||||
---------------------------------------
|
||||
|
||||
THE ENDGAME: INEVITABLE! NO FUD
|
||||
|
||||
Kenny now is trapped. Now we known his game!!
|
||||
|
||||
We also know he IS SHORTING THE the 0.01%, the government and the economy!!!
|
||||
|
||||
Why is Kenny want to do all this?
|
||||
|
||||
THIS IS VERY IMPORTANT!!!
|
||||
|
||||
He wants to be THE KING!! To big to be touched!
|
||||
|
||||
He always wanted to be a bank and be part of the 0.01%
|
||||
|
||||
Putting my Tin Hat on this might sound crazy but.... It does align with Kenny goals!
|
||||
|
||||
Why to move to texas?
|
||||
|
||||
a) Because in texas he can apply for a banking license and become a bank (state banks have lot less regulations than federal banks)
|
||||
|
||||
b) scoop up all the cheap commercial real estate
|
||||
|
||||
c) becomes a massive player in the banking environment
|
||||
|
||||
WHY DOES KENNY WANTS TO BE A BANK SO BADLY?
|
||||
|
||||
A state bank is lot less regulated than a federal bank.
|
||||
|
||||
A BANK IS THE ONLY PIECE MISSING IN KENNY PUZZLE
|
||||
|
||||
This way he will eliminate the middle man, the bank does everything for his fuckery.
|
||||
|
||||
Having a bank means, he will be the one setting the price of the appraisals, also giving the loans, then also liquidating the asset and auctioning controlling the prices to buy everything at the price he wants.
|
||||
|
||||
Being able to always inflate the appraisals and pocket the difference everytime more and more!
|
||||
|
||||
And buying the real estate dirt cheap always! Perfect set up!
|
||||
|
||||
Ohhhh the banks game!!!
|
||||
|
||||
The 0.01% didn't let him in because he's too greedy and try to absorb everything, also he wasn't born into the 0.01%.** he doesn't have the surname or the generous gramma.
|
||||
|
||||
So then he said fuk it! I'm going to be the king and bigger than anybody!!
|
||||
|
||||
Ambition much Kenny?
|
||||
|
||||
Sorry Kenny!
|
||||
|
||||
You can't buy your way into the 0.01% club, you need to born with the surname and Griffin isn't cutting it.
|
||||
|
||||
Kenny no likey 0.01 percento nada!
|
||||
|
||||
He's been issuing years after years of those bad bad useless trust bonds and everyone buys them thinking are solid gold from Shitadel!
|
||||
|
||||
And pocketing so much real estate dirt cheap with all this fuckery!
|
||||
|
||||
HOW THE SEC CAN CATCH HIM?
|
||||
|
||||
Follow the transactions!!
|
||||
|
||||
Open those bonds full of naked shares that's are imaginary!!
|
||||
|
||||
Check on the Treasury (bills, notes and bonds) transactions, how many they have, how many they had and touch Kenny hands.
|
||||
|
||||
Also check where the money they used for Treasuries come from!
|
||||
|
||||
Why are they OVER SHORTING business?
|
||||
|
||||
Open your eyes and realize that they are targeting business that are real estate heavy for a reason!!
|
||||
|
||||
There is clear market manipulation CLEAR
|
||||
|
||||
There is clear MEDIA manipulation, hundreds of examples
|
||||
|
||||
Go and check the loan contracts and compare the loan values of appraisal given versus the real values of the properties!
|
||||
|
||||
Follow the money and follow the real estate.
|
||||
|
||||
Follow companies like this IOR (clearly the worse website I've seen). Only takes 1 minute to see this website to know this is a scam! And this company is managing a 51M market cap and can't even make a half decent website? PLEASE!!!
|
||||
|
||||
How dumb they think we are seriously!!
|
||||
|
||||
<https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/IOR>
|
||||
|
||||
<http://www.incomeopp-realty.com/management.html>
|
||||
|
||||
I 5 year old can make a better website than that!!
|
||||
|
||||
-------------
|
||||
|
||||
How's is the 0.01% is fighting back??
|
||||
|
||||
Creating a bubble too big to handle in GME so they can breaks the Citadel (Kenny and friends) and margin call them before the Federal Reserve implodes!!!
|
||||
|
||||
or exposing his scam and making rules and also by forcing him to cover the shorts!! it's all a lie and fake at the end of the day!
|
||||
|
||||
They need to come up with firewalls (801/002 and others) and ways to protect all the banks and members of the DTCC that are not part of the Shitadel and friends scam!! That's why all those rules have been coming in place.
|
||||
|
||||
Once everything is ready Shitadel and friends are gonna be forced to cover their shorts and naked shorts everywhere. (The bubble is so big that they are gonna get margin called, my floor is $15 million btw).
|
||||
|
||||
Kenny will have to cover institutional shorts, retail shorts, ETFs as well as those garbage trust bonds full of empty shells. Remember that Kenny need to return those borrowed naked IOUs and put a real share in every empty shell on peoples accounts and bonds!! But there is more! Don't forget the bets!
|
||||
|
||||
**Forgot about the FTD plus all the puts accumulated for years that expire 1/16, 4/16 (yes DFV day!!) and 7/17!!?? Thanks for the correction btw!!😍
|
||||
|
||||
That's another massive fukery scam going on and is HUGE! Federal Bank and friends need to break Citadel before Citadel breaks them, the economy and the government by scamming everyone and bankrupting companies!!
|
||||
|
||||
----------------------------
|
||||
|
||||
**NEW GOOOD! EDIT 2: Clues Clues Clues.......
|
||||
|
||||
A totally jacket MAGNIFICENT specimen of a APE dropped this amazing little jewel on the comment!!!
|
||||
|
||||
Fuuuuuuuuuukkkk.
|
||||
|
||||
This is your chance to DIG AND DIG
|
||||
|
||||
I'm a bit tired but you definitely can do your own post and DD about anything or all of this!!
|
||||
|
||||
"- Ashcraft, Adam B. and Gooriah, Kunal and Kermani, Amir, Does Skin‐in‐the‐Game Affect Security Performance? (March 1, 2017). Available at SSRN: [https://ssrn.com/abstract=2437574 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2437574](https://ssrn.com/abstract=2437574%C2%A0or%C2%A0http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2437574)
|
||||
|
||||
- Key paper: Griffin, John M. and Priest, Alex, Is COVID Revealing a CMBS Virus? (August 10, 2020). Available at SSRN: [https://ssrn.com/abstract=3671162 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3671162](https://ssrn.com/abstract=3671162%C2%A0or%C2%A0http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3671162)
|
||||
|
||||
- Shao, Ruoyu, Examination of Potential Misrepresentation in CMBS (June 11, 2015). Available at SSRN: [https://ssrn.com/abstract=2727038 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2727038](https://ssrn.com/abstract=2727038%C2%A0or%C2%A0http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2727038)
|
||||
|
||||
- Wong, Maisy, CMBS and Conflicts of Interest: Evidence from a Natural Experiment on Servicer Ownership (May 12, 2015). The Wharton School Research Paper No. 82, Jacobs Levy Equity Management Center for Quantitative Financial Research Paper, Available at SSRN: [https://ssrn.com/abstract=2605538 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2605538](https://ssrn.com/abstract=2605538%C2%A0or%C2%A0http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2605538) - CMBS and the Fed...is there a crisis brewing in the office? <https://www.ftserussell.com/research/cmbs-and-fedis-there-crisis-brewing-office>
|
||||
|
||||
- There are honestly maybe 6 more papers but I wanted to distill to these. Sites:
|
||||
|
||||
- The article that led me to every CMBS paper and ETF paper written: <https://theintercept.com/2021/04/20/wall-street-cmbs-dollar-general-ladder-capital/>
|
||||
|
||||
- CMBS Disputes on the Horizon? - <https://www.jdsupra.com/legalnews/cmbs-disputes-on-the-horizon-april-2021-9296023/>
|
||||
|
||||
- Increases in forbearance agreements: <https://www.alston.com/en/insights/publications/2020/04/forbearance-agreements-in-the-age-of-covid-19/>
|
||||
|
||||
- Issuance Activity and Interconnectedness in the CMBS Market - <https://www.sec.gov/files/DERA_WP_Knyazeva-Lin-Park_IssuanceActivityInterconnectednessCMBS%20.pdf>
|
||||
|
||||
- Trepp, a group that measures CMBS delinquency rates, suddenly had a change of tone last year in their delinquency reporting and openly suggested in their April 2020 report that "it's time to throw the old way of looking at the data out the window". They've reported economically health numbers since then.
|
||||
|
||||
- Say what you will about the Kroll Bond Agency's shenanigans, but they had an interesting report in Jan '21.: [https://www.kbra.com/documents/report/43448/cmbs-trend-watch-december-2020"](https://www.kbra.com/documents/report/43448/cmbs-trend-watch-december-2020%E2%80%9D)
|
||||
|
||||
BOOM!!
|
||||
|
||||
Go NUTS APES!!!
|
||||
|
||||
Grab a shovel and start digging!!!! Someone has to do it, can be you!!
|
||||
|
||||
Another piece to keep digging!!
|
||||
|
||||
<https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/n2ov32/investigation_weekend_citadel_has_been_working/?utm_source=share&amp;utm_medium=ios_app&amp;utm_name=iossmf>
|
||||
|
||||
END OF THE EDIT2:
|
||||
|
||||
------------------------------------------------------
|
||||
|
||||
SUMMARY
|
||||
|
||||
Holy fuc%#ing shit!!!
|
||||
|
||||
Apes are the last line of defense!!!!! PROTECT THE ECONOMY FROM PREDATOR KENNY G!!!
|
||||
|
||||
Now remember, when was the last time Uncle Sam didn't get his money? I can't remember.. Because Uncle Sam always gets his money and he's coming for Kenny and our tendies!!
|
||||
|
||||
All of them!! This is Citadel (Kenny and friends) vs the DTCC, Federal Reserve and the banks and the PLANET OF THE APEEEEEES!!
|
||||
|
||||
Im seriously JACKED TO THE TITS!!
|
||||
|
||||
I wouldn't be surprised if Kenny is in the deep with something around 2000%+ SI no joke.
|
||||
|
||||
Remember Trump calling Ken out in his speech? Kenny is hiding all his money somewhere. Now we know where: art, real estate, and more. Whose money? *The Federal Reserve and retail's money!* So far he's been kicking the cans [with fukery like this](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/mzgtvx/a_method_for_hiding_ftds_that_uses_the_109mil/).
|
||||
|
||||
Kenny and Citadel have liquidity to fight for now, but the machine stopped printing. Now it's just matter of time, and some MELON just unfolded the entire fuckery!
|
||||
|
||||
As an aside/addendum to all this...but for the sake of not making this long post even longer...
|
||||
|
||||
Im making post 2 on GME subs.
|
||||
|
||||
Next part will talk about something as important that is change from LIBOR to SOFR as well as *The Big Short's* Michael Burry's warnings on hyperinflation.
|
||||
|
||||
This will be a part of the world history, in the end I think the economy will be alright thanks to ape's stimulation, dont be scared ([READ PART 2](https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/comments/n286u2/22_the_ultimate_dd_guide_to_the_moon_crazy_melon/)).
|
||||
|
||||
----------------------------
|
||||
|
||||
TL;DR 1: Kenny is in big trouble for trying to scam the big big money (bigger money than Bezos, Gates and Musk combined) and everyone else to own the banks/Federal Reserve. Machine no printing for him anymore so he's been drained and his game uncovered. Apes need to be patient and keep BUYING AND HOLDING!!! The end is near.
|
||||
|
||||
----------------------------------
|
||||
|
||||
BURRY CONCERN: HYPERINFLATION
|
||||
|
||||
This is quite a handful matter to talk about, I encourage you to do your own research cuz i might be wrong or this might be incomplete.
|
||||
|
||||
But im gonna give it a go! FOR YOU MY AMAZING APES!
|
||||
|
||||
Dr Michael Burry (we all remember him for predicting the 2008 housing market collapse and the big short (Christian bale - Batman!!))
|
||||
|
||||
He has been warning us for a while about a highly probably hyperinflation
|
||||
|
||||
Quote from the [article](https://www.businessinsider.com.au/big-short-michael-burry-warren-buffett-inflation-dangers-warning-investors-2021-2?r=US&amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;IR=T):
|
||||
|
||||
"Burry has been sounding the alarm on inflation. He warned investors last week to "prepare for inflation" as the US economy reopens and receives a fresh round of stimulus. He also compared America's current trajectory to Germany's path to hyperinflation in the 1920s."
|
||||
|
||||
<https://www.businessinsider.com.au/big-short-michael-burry-warren-buffett-inflation-dangers-warning-investors-2021-2?r=US&amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;IR=T>
|
||||
|
||||
The effects of inflation causes different ripple effects, usually increases the banks interest rates reducing the amount of demand of loans, among many many other side effects.
|
||||
|
||||
Also causes products such as goods or services to rise. That will reduce the buying power of a currency.
|
||||
|
||||
---- CURRENCY BUYING POWER AND DEPRECIATION
|
||||
|
||||
Imagine you having $5 and being able to buy a train ticket for $3 and an ice cream for $2.
|
||||
|
||||
When inflation rises, means that the buying power of your money is gonna be reduced, now the train ticket is $3.50 and the ice cream is $2.30, suddenly with your $5 you can only get the train ticket and you are short $0.80 for the ice cream :((.
|
||||
|
||||
---- RIPPLE IN THE MORTGAGE LIKE 2008
|
||||
|
||||
The ripples effect also affects other things like loans or mortgages.
|
||||
|
||||
If you have a subprime loan or mortgage with adjustable rates (this mortgages where the ones that caused the 2008 housing collapse trough swaps) and the interests rates of the banks go up, suddenly my mortgage payments will go up, a lot of people that doesn't have enough money to pay that different will stop paying and the mortgages will default.
|
||||
|
||||
This affects on auto loans, student loans and more.
|
||||
|
||||
Well... with hyperinflation... like the prefix hyper says, it's BIGGER! So imagine that scenario bigger.
|
||||
|
||||
Possibly worse that 2008!!! And the rates and indexes like the SP500 look high.
|
||||
|
||||
<https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/mq2iam/just_hold_on_tight/?utm_source=share&amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;utm_medium=ios_app&amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;utm_name=iossmf>
|
||||
|
||||
Seems scary right? It's not!!
|
||||
|
||||
Check one of my posts for 2 weeks ago talking about this (I made it when I didn't know as much so dont hit me too hard on that one!! :P)
|
||||
|
||||
<https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/mqmj5e/the_how_is_this_gonna_play_out_game_my_prediction/?utm_source=share&amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;utm_medium=ios_app&amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;utm_name=iossmf>
|
||||
|
||||
Everything is going to be fine and if something this is very healthy for the economy.
|
||||
|
||||
The best thing that we need right now is to stop Kenny from creating bubbles of fake shares everywhere!! Its a parasite inside the market!
|
||||
|
||||
Let's keep going, gets better and better! Read my TL;DR further down.
|
||||
|
||||
* * * * *
|
||||
|
||||
EDIT 4: WARNING WARNING ON ETFs STREET!!
|
||||
|
||||
"ETFs are linked like a web. We've had two flash crashes amplified by them in the last 11 years, and their behavior during last year's pandemic accelerated the crash. CMBS are potentially a bowling ball that's going to crash through the spider web of ETFs."
|
||||
|
||||
Thank you you beautiful ape for this info, you know who!!
|
||||
|
||||
Check this key article: <https://theintercept.com/2021/04/20/wall-street-cmbs-dollar-general-ladder-capital/>
|
||||
|
||||
Check this key research paper: Is COVID Revealing a CMBS Virus? <https://ssrn.com/abstract=3671162>"
|
||||
|
||||
BIG WARNING FELLOWS!! EMBRACE FOR IMPACT!
|
||||
|
||||
Rocky ride to the moon, but we are getting there don't be scared!
|
||||
|
||||
------------------------------------
|
||||
|
||||
LIBOR to SOFR
|
||||
|
||||
Take all this this a grain of salt, Probably make a couple of mistakes. [READ THE CHAOS THEORY DD](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/mseyai/chaos_theory_the_final_connection/) to have the proper DD about this. (recommend the whole saga!!)
|
||||
|
||||
Changes from Libor to SOFR were meant to happen in 2022, but guess what?
|
||||
|
||||
They pushed to to June 2021!!!
|
||||
|
||||
<https://webstorage.paulhastings.com/Documents/PDFs/timeline-for-libor-transition.pdf?sfvrsn=363ea8ab_2>
|
||||
|
||||
This is massive!! Why?
|
||||
|
||||
Banks used LIBOR to manipulate their self created and self reported interest rates in order to be favorable and give away money left right and center. Where did tons of that money go? To HEDGEFUNDS!!!
|
||||
|
||||
They borrowed money from banks for almost no interest rates no matter how the economy and inflation was, including during an unprecedented pandemic!!! For what? SHORTING Kenny style!
|
||||
|
||||
Wtf??
|
||||
|
||||
Now you wonder why during a pandemic the whole market was "healthy" and up and growing right?? Inflating business with naked shares...
|
||||
|
||||
Using the same shitadel strategy but with money from the banks and washing everything trough citadel MM, trust bonds and dumping all the garbage in the ETFs and the trust bonds buyers.
|
||||
|
||||
Always betting in bankrupting the companies and then rebuying them to own pieces of the banks/federal reserve.
|
||||
|
||||
So what all this changes mean?
|
||||
|
||||
With Libor banks suppose to self regulate and self report and give interest rates to their customer (business, institutions, people or the government) according to how the economy is, indicators like inflation among other things. [Read about it here.](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/l/libor.asp#:~:text=LIBOR%20is%20administered%20by%20the,data%2Ddriven%2C%20layered%20method)
|
||||
|
||||
The banks have been manipulating this FOR A LONG TIME. Especially after 2008.
|
||||
|
||||
I guess they wanted to recoup their loses and because being HOLDINGS now, they wanted to be bigger and bigger.
|
||||
|
||||
BOOM! The greed
|
||||
|
||||
They got too greedy.... :( Even during the pandemic they gave away loans at very low and favorable rates, it was more than obvious that the economy wasn't right... they needed to raise the rates!
|
||||
|
||||
They didn't!!
|
||||
|
||||
Now they are full of this bad bad loans with subpremiun and adjustable rates, but everything was ok as long as they kept on showing those fake interest rates right?
|
||||
|
||||
SOFR arrives!!
|
||||
|
||||
SOFR was almost implemented on 2019 and almost caused a massive crisis!! BUBBLE ALERT!
|
||||
|
||||
why?
|
||||
|
||||
Lets find out what SOFR means
|
||||
|
||||
[What is SOFR?](https://www.investopedia.com/secured-overnight-financing-rate-sofr-4683954)
|
||||
|
||||
<https://www.jdsupra.com/legalnews/libor-transition-to-sofr-a-brief-9557503/>
|
||||
|
||||
Thanks to a fellow ape in the comments for providing this link ❤️
|
||||
|
||||
The secured overnight financing rate, or SOFR, is an influential interest rate that banks use to price U.S. dollar-denominated [derivatives](https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/12/derivative.asp) and loans. The daily secured overnight financing rate (SOFR) is based on transactions in the [Treasury](https://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/073113/introduction-treasury-securities.asp) repurchase market, where investors offer banks overnight loans backed by their bond assets.
|
||||
|
||||
So the interest rates are not going to be self reported by the banks, but instead the government is going to provide those rates to the banks based on the repo market.
|
||||
|
||||
They believe is a better option than letting the banks manipulate the rates for their advantage.
|
||||
|
||||
This magnificent ape made a really good post about it and thats how I found out about this problem, all credit to him!!
|
||||
|
||||
<https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/mseyai/chaos_theory_the_final_connection/>
|
||||
|
||||
FROM THE CHAOS THEORY:
|
||||
|
||||
Introducing SOFR (Secured Overnight Financing Rate)!!!!! This is a MASSIVE 200 trillion dollar transition that will take place over the next few years.
|
||||
|
||||
OH and it almost imploded the entire fucking market the first time it was attempted to be implemented back in 2019 <https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/notes/feds-notes/what-happened-in-money-markets-in-september-2019-20200227.htm>
|
||||
|
||||
[Definition](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/t/treasurybond.asp)
|
||||
|
||||
brilliant ape make the [CHAOS THEORY](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/mseyai/chaos_theory_the_final_connection/) and explains a lot of what im saying here. A MUST READ
|
||||
|
||||
<https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/mseyai/chaos_theory_the_final_connection/>
|
||||
|
||||
I'll let the rest to the CHAOS THEORY, very well explained.
|
||||
|
||||
That's why Kenny is shorting the TREASURY BILLS, NOTES ands BOND!
|
||||
|
||||
He wants to profit from the banks and government to be insolvent and default!!
|
||||
|
||||
QUOTED FROM CHAOS THEORY:
|
||||
|
||||
As time progresses I believe we will see more evidence of multiple parties attempting to deleverage their positions before 2023. Coincidentally GameStop has just paid off all their debt that was due that exact year.
|
||||
|
||||
So this becomes a two pronged problem;
|
||||
|
||||
1. Assets are being re-hypothecated which are being used as collateral
|
||||
|
||||
2. Banks are providing absurd interest rates off the old LIBOR system instead of SOFR; this has resulted in the taking on a position that will be extremely difficult to get out of.
|
||||
|
||||
As we can see they're fighting against these changes through politics, but it appears they've brought in Gary Gensler to kick some ass.
|
||||
|
||||
We are going to be fine, a few blows to the economy and crisis but everything is going to turn down and de leverage. ----------
|
||||
|
||||
EDIT 3: Check the latest SEC speech, they seem to be focusing a lot on Libor!!! We might be onto something.... Or I'm I just a cOnSpIrAtOr QaNoN sHiLl!!!
|
||||
|
||||
SEC speech on 28 th of April!!
|
||||
|
||||
<https://www.sec.gov/news/speech/werewolves-of-change>
|
||||
|
||||
-----------------------------------
|
||||
|
||||
IM JACKED TO THE TITS!
|
||||
|
||||
TL;DR2 : This is my latest perception and final conclusion of this beautiful saga!
|
||||
|
||||
Well.... Battle of GME is basically going to bankrupt citadel. BOOM!
|
||||
|
||||
It's going be the biggest wealth distribution in history. BOOM!
|
||||
|
||||
There is going to be a domino and a ripple effect. (It's not all about GME, GME is just the tip of the iceberg).
|
||||
|
||||
Kenny has been creating bubbles of money naked with things that does exist to Scam business and retail (among others). Its going to burst, when the bubbles burst, will have repercussions everywhere.
|
||||
|
||||
A lot of tendies are going to the people. That will create a lot of money going around, not just for apes but for everyone, apes will be buying things and paying off their debts and all that.
|
||||
|
||||
That will help reducing the leverage.
|
||||
|
||||
Hyperinflation is going to hit, but the government is going to be able to take it and absorb a big part trough (TIPS) <https://www.investopedia.com/terms/t/tips.asp>
|
||||
|
||||
People and apes are not going to care much about the raise in pricing (inflation) because we will have money and wealth around, huge economy stimulus (Thanks you citadel for the tendies!).
|
||||
|
||||
A huge chunk of money will come to the banks initially, people paying their credit card and loans and mortgages.
|
||||
|
||||
Then tax will come and Uncle Sam will get half of our tendies (if helps the economy not to boom boom im fine!).
|
||||
|
||||
Then things will be stable then and hopefully lot cleaner after.
|
||||
|
||||
This is necessary and healthy to Happen, stock is trading sideways to prepare for all that.
|
||||
|
||||
This is why I think is low volume and trading sideways lately
|
||||
|
||||
Stock is trading sideways because RC needed to to pay the debt and be free from banks leverage.
|
||||
|
||||
Also gather money for the transformation, ! he already did !.
|
||||
|
||||
Also trading still low allow more Apes to jump in!! RC care for us and everyone. Ohhh PAPA RC.
|
||||
|
||||
The DTCC needs time to firewall and protect the banks from Kenny and friends predators.
|
||||
|
||||
Once everything is in place and the scam is suppressed, the huge winners are going be the banks and the federal reserve. But us apes going to ride the rollercoaster all along getting tendies!!
|
||||
|
||||
I won't be surprised if the catalyst is RC announcing a recall, investigation or a crypto dividend on the meeting.
|
||||
|
||||
My smooth brain tells me the catalyst is the Libor to SOFR, always been for me.
|
||||
|
||||
The voting is big because they will have grounds to show the amount of shorting and fukery.
|
||||
|
||||
So be patient and don't be scared. HOLD THE LINE!
|
||||
|
||||
This needs to be done and Kenny needs to be stopped because is making bubbles everywhere in the market is damaging shareholders, the companies and THE ECONOMY!!
|
||||
|
||||
----------------------------------------------------
|
||||
|
||||
Thanks!!
|
||||
|
||||
EDIT 1: Kenny Kenny Kenny...... some history of Kenny!!!
|
||||
|
||||
EDIT 2: Clues and pieces so you can DIG DIG and make your own DD!!! It's time to wake up and keep this baby rolling!!
|
||||
|
||||
EDIT 3: check on the new SEC speech on 28 th of April!!
|
||||
|
||||
<https://www.sec.gov/news/speech/werewolves-of-change>
|
||||
|
||||
Thanks to magnificent [u/sharkbaitlol](https://www.reddit.com/u/sharkbaitlol/) for providing the info.
|
||||
|
||||
You guys check his work THE CHAOS THEORIES that's a must read DD!
|
||||
|
||||
EDIT 4: WARNING WARNING ON ETFs!!!
|
||||
|
||||
Look at this magnificent ape work! Holy shit....
|
||||
|
||||
<https://www.reddit.com/r/DDintoGME/comments/n0i9tw/the_etf_seesaw_part_1/>
|
||||
|
||||
*None of this is financial advice. I'm a retarded ape just rambling words. I'm crazy and a horrible man. So don't believe or listen to anything I say. Don't trust me and do your own research and fact check, I did and I'm jacked to the tits!!*
|
||||
|
||||
EDIT 5: I'm I wrong????
|
||||
|
||||
<https://www.propublica.org/article/whistleblower-wall-street-has-engaged-in-widespread-manipulation-of-mortgage-funds>
|
||||
|
||||
<https://www.propublica.org/article/whistleblower-wall-street-has-engaged-in-widespread-manipulation-of-mortgage-funds>
|
||||
|
||||
[PART 1](https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/comments/n2hgxq/13_the_ultimate_dd_guide_to_the_moon_crazy_melon/)
|
||||
|
||||
[PART 2](https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/comments/n2hhhn/23_the_ultimate_dd_guide_to_the_moon_crazy_melon/)
|
||||
|
||||
BONUS!!: Remember "I am not a CAT!"?
|
||||
|
||||
<https://financial-dictionary.thefreedictionary.com/CAT>
|
||||
|
||||
WE ARE THE LAST LINE OF DEFENSE AGAINST THIS SCAM! HOLD THE LINE!!!!
|
||||
|
||||
This is not financial advice at all! Just a crazy melon 🍉 playing with some crayons. I eat the sometimes yummmm
|
||||
|
||||
💎🙌------> 🦍🦧🚀🌝!!
|
||||
|
||||
If you are not done reading....
|
||||
|
||||
I recommend this work.....
|
||||
|
||||
[u/atobitt](https://www.reddit.com/u/atobitt/) good DD to inform yourself
|
||||
|
||||
[u/sharkbaitlol](https://www.reddit.com/u/sharkbaitlol/) chaos theories connect a lot of dots
|
||||
|
||||
[u/toffis](https://www.reddit.com/r/gme_capitalists/comments/mvwc9k/financial_system_historical_ownership_and/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf)
|
||||
|
||||
Now this chart does look that crazy now?
|
||||
|
||||
<https://www.docdroid.net/Q8qCCvM/rgme-pokes-at-kenny-g-pdf>
|
Some files were not shown because too many files have changed in this diff Show More
Reference in New Issue
Block a user