Update 2021-07-01-Resources.md

This is defunct. Removing to avoid confusion.

00-Getting-Started/2021-07-08-For-New-Apes-This-is-What-Happened-Yesterday.md

@@ -0,0 +1,13 @@
+For new Apes: This is what happened yesterday
+=============================================
+
+| Author       | Source       | 
+| :-------------: |:-------------:|
+|  [u/derAres](https://www.reddit.com/user/derAres/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/og5llh/for_new_apes_this_is_what_happened_yesterday/) | 
+
+---
+
+
+[HODL 💎🙌](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22HODL%20%F0%9F%92%8E%F0%9F%99%8C%22&restrict_sr=1)
+
+![image](https://user-images.githubusercontent.com/82035192/125073276-b367d580-e089-11eb-9b97-7676cf51bfc8.png)

01-Must-Read/2021-04-30-I-Am-Not-A-Financial-Advisor-v14.md

@@ -1,9 +0,0 @@
-# I Am Not a Financial Advisor PDF
-
-| Author       | Source       | 
-| :-------------: |:-------------:|
-|  [@iamnotafinadv](https://www.twitter.com/iamnotafinadv) | [Source](https://iamnotafinancialadvisor.com/) | 
-
----
-
-[GMEv14.zip](https://github.com/verymeticulous/wikAPEdia/files/6764891/GMEv14.zip)

02-Resources/2021-07-01-Resources.md

@@ -1,5 +1,8 @@
 # Resources
 
+| Last Updated | July 7, 2021 |
+| :---: | :---: |
+
 | Name | Description |
 | :---: | :---: |
 | [GameStop Newsroom](https://gamestop.gcs-web.com/news-releases-0) | Stay up to date with GameStop's latest strategic initiatives. |
@@ -34,6 +37,8 @@
 | [US House of Representatives Stock Watcher](https://housestockwatcher.com/) | Website created by [u/rambat1994](https://www.reddit.com/u/rambat1994/) that tracks stock trades of US House of Representatives. |
 | [Investor.gov - Researching Investments](https://www.investor.gov/introduction-investing/getting-started/researching-investments) | Website that you walks you through how to do your due diligence. |
 | [Tax My Tendies](https://taxmytendies.com/) | Tools that helps you calculate how much you'll owe in taxes post-MOASS. (US only). |
+| [Gamestop NFT](https://nft.gamestop.com/) | GameStops' official NFT website |
+| [GME NFT Relationships](https://github.com/schismsaints/GME_NFT) | Graphic that shows the relationships between GME tokens. |
 
 *Table inspired by [u/Truffluscious](https://www.reddit.com/user/Truffluscious/)*
 
@@ -61,8 +66,6 @@
 | [Superstonk](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/) | | 🚨 [Superstonk Emergency Broadcast](https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCI4EET9NJPWxUuXGlG6fxPA) 🚨 |
 | [u/DeepFuckingValue](https://www.reddit.com/user/DeepFuckingValue/) | [@TheRoaringKitty](https://twitter.com/theroaringkitty?lang=en) | [Roaring Kitty](https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC0patpmwYbhcEUap0bTX3JQ) |
 | Ryan Cohen | [@ryancohen](https://twitter.com/ryancohen) |  |
-| [RedChessQueen](https://www.reddit.com/user/redchessqueen99/) | [@RedChessQueen99](https://twitter.com/RedChessQueen99) |  |
-| [Rensole](https://www.reddit.com/user/rensole/) | [@rensole](https://twitter.com/ryancohen) |  |
 | [HeyItsPixel](https://www.reddit.com/user/HeyItsPixeL/) | [@heyitspixel69](https://twitter.com/heyitspixel69) |  |
 | [PinkCatsOnAcid](https://www.reddit.com/user/pinkcatsonacid/) | [@PinkCatsOnAcid](https://twitter.com/PinkCatsOnAcid) |  |
 | [Dennis Kelleher](https://www.reddit.com/user/WallSt4MainSt/) | [@BetterMarkets](https://twitter.com/BetterMarkets) |  |

Confirmation-Bias-and-Discussion/2021-07-05-RCs-Tweets-are-Time-with-ETF-FTDs.md

@@ -0,0 +1,60 @@
+RC's tweets are timed with ETF FTDs
+===================================
+
+| Author       | Source       | 
+| :-------------: |:-------------:|
+|  [u/dentisttft](https://www.reddit.com/user/dentisttft/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/oeahh2/rcs_tweets_are_timed_with_etf_ftds/) | 
+
+---
+
+[Possible DD 👨‍🔬](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22Possible%20DD%20%F0%9F%91%A8%E2%80%8D%F0%9F%94%AC%22&restrict_sr=1)
+
+*This post is for education purposes only. Not financial advice.*
+
+TL;DR: RC's tweets happen on days where large amounts of ETF FTDs are covered/delayed.
+
+Hi everyone,
+
+I've been diving into ETF FTDs for a while now and something finally clicked. *Almost every RC tweet happens on the same day a large amount of ETF FTDs are "cleared".* ETF FTDs are allowed to stack up for 3 days before needing to be handled. So when a specific ETF stacks up a decent chunk of FTD, puts are opened to delay 34 days, then RC tweets.
+
+To show what I mean, I weighted the ETF FTDs by GME's weight within the ETF. GME is in a lot of ETFs, but these are the ETFs with significant enough FTDs: IWM, XRT, XSVM, FTXD, BUZZ, XSMO, IWC, FNDX, IJR, SPSM, SFYF, PSCD, SLYV, VXF, IJT, GINN, and VB.
+
+Below is a heatmap of those ETFs. Each ETF is a different row, each trading day is a different column. The green color shows where a lot of FTDs are. The darker the green, the more ETFs. The blue marks a day where RC tweeted. If you look at a blue column and track it down, there is an ETF or two that had just cleared their stacked FTDs from the day earlier.
+
+[![r/Superstonk - RC's tweets are timed with ETF FTDs](https://preview.redd.it/q7fwa3kn1f971.png?width=1714&format=png&auto=webp&s=a82cf29f39b7996f3de3e34460ba6f615120d3e7)](https://preview.redd.it/q7fwa3kn1f971.png?width=1714&format=png&auto=webp&s=a82cf29f39b7996f3de3e34460ba6f615120d3e7)
+
+Tweets come the day FTDs are cleared - EDIT: outside of the fist emoji (DFV), flag (35 days before memorial day which had GME FTDS), job posting (35 days before June 2 runup), and one of the south park GIFs
+
+I have an old post from May that claims the Ted tweets are referencing Rule 204: Close-out requirements, the rule the that specifies the thirty-five day cover period.
+
+[RC Tweet Analysis: Part 1 [The Ted Tweets]](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/niui83/rc_tweet_analysis_part_1_the_ted_tweets/)
+
+So using [my T+35 theory](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/o155a6/t35_is_the_one_true_cycle_evidence_to_back_my/), I marked every trading day that came 35 calendar days after a tweet on the 4H chart. You'll see that most tweets end up corresponding to a jump in GME's price. Gray lines are tweets, green lines are 35 days after a tweet.
+
+[![r/Superstonk - RC's tweets are timed with ETF FTDs](https://preview.redd.it/ngufchm54f971.png?width=1307&format=png&auto=webp&s=57ee666bc94c2f54ab09d22e72726e46178964bb)](https://preview.redd.it/ngufchm54f971.png?width=1307&format=png&auto=webp&s=57ee666bc94c2f54ab09d22e72726e46178964bb)
+
+GME 4H chart with new tweets marked in gray and T+35 of tweets marked in green.
+
+Not every tweet corresponds to a jump, but a lot do. The last few tweet's T+35 jump during after hours/premarket after the 35th day because technically they can be covered before 9:30 AM EST on the following day. Notice how a new tweet ends up being very close to the T+35 of an old tweet? To me this visually shows the process of kicking the can down the road. GME is getting suppressed pretty hard so let's mark 35 days after a tweet on SPY. You'll notice green days more consistently on SPY.
+
+[![r/Superstonk - RC's tweets are timed with ETF FTDs](https://preview.redd.it/ycd7osw34f971.png?width=1305&format=png&auto=webp&s=fa0047eb004c9c3ed00aed02493a7c785433135a)](https://preview.redd.it/ycd7osw34f971.png?width=1305&format=png&auto=webp&s=fa0047eb004c9c3ed00aed02493a7c785433135a)
+
+SPY 4H chart with T+35 of tweets marked in green.
+
+Why is that? Because if a lot of ETF FTDs are being covered on these days, then a lot of underlying stock are being bought to return the ETFs. If a lot of underlying stock rises in value, SPY should rise in value too. GME is being shorted on these days, so it doesn't move much. But they can't short the entire market. I believe the sheer number of ETF FTDs needing to be covered every week is leading to the market inflation that has been seen for the past few months.
+
+What does this mean for the future?
+
+I've highlighted days where I expect upward GME movement. But since GME is being held down so much lately, I would expect more upward movement from SPY.
+
+[![r/Superstonk - RC's tweets are timed with ETF FTDs](https://preview.redd.it/2u5qd8n53f971.png?width=1390&format=png&auto=webp&s=592a6eb2bd74c64efbae25ad3a5100789307701b)](https://preview.redd.it/2u5qd8n53f971.png?width=1390&format=png&auto=webp&s=592a6eb2bd74c64efbae25ad3a5100789307701b)
+
+Red boxes on dates of T+35 from ETF FTDs.
+
+That's all I got for today. I'm planning on dropping the ETF FTD DD tomorrow morning. It will go more in depth about the details surrounding this.
+
+pce~~
+
+- [u/dentisttft](https://www.reddit.com/u/dentisttft/)
+
+PS. I made a twitter: <https://twitter.com/dentisttft>

Confirmation-Bias-and-Discussion/2021-07-07-Citadel-Has-Hostages.md

@@ -0,0 +1,74 @@
+Citadel has hostages: explaining why the MOASS is taking so long, how the January spike was stopped, Robinhood's motives for the trading halt, and the mysterious silence of the SEC
+====================================================================================================================================================================================
+
+| Author       | Source       | 
+| :-------------: |:-------------:|
+|  [u/Bladeace](https://www.reddit.com/user/Bladeace/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/ofdhkk/citadel_has_hostages_explaining_why_the_moass_is/) | 
+
+---
+
+[DD 👨‍🔬](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22DD%20%F0%9F%91%A8%E2%80%8D%F0%9F%94%AC%22&restrict_sr=1)
+
+TA;DR: The January MOASS is delayed because Citadel took hostages. They figured out how to ensure that others would be squeezed before they were. January 28th is the day Robinhood was required to deliver some of the GME shares Citadel owed to its customers, so they halted trading. They halted trading because their relationship with Citadel turned them into a hostage. The MOASS waits until new regulations ensure the hostages are safe...
+
+TL;DR: Citadel wasn't going to be squeezed in January, Robinhood was. Citadel took hostages and figured out how to ensure that others were squeezed before they were. Robinhood halted trading after GME was on the threshold list for 35 days. After 35 days of failures to deliver, a broker becomes responsible for delivering the security to their customer. The MOASS is taking so long because Citadel managed to figure out how to make their short position other people's problem. This is why Citadel seems to have so many people protecting it and willing to lie for it: they've spent six months figuring out how to ensure it's actually Citadel that gets squeezed. This is why there is an unusual cooperation between parties we wouldn't expect to be able to keep this secret for this long. Not even the SEC can address this directly, Citadel figured out how to take everyone hostage. The past six months have been a negotiation to figure out how to deliver our tendies.
+
+Theory: Robinhood halted trading the day they became liable for delivery of the GME shares Citadel sold to their customers
+
+I think Robinhood halted trading because they were required to purchase GME shares to deliver their customers' past orders. Look at this requirement from [SHO § 242.203 (b2)](https://www.law.cornell.edu/cfr/text/17/242.203):
+
+[![r/Superstonk - Citadel has hostages: explaining why the MOASS is taking so long, how the January spike was stopped, Robinhood's motives for the trading halt, and the mysterious silence of the SEC](https://preview.redd.it/el9inu75kq971.png?width=1066&format=png&auto=webp&s=950d9158e1ede602b68c834ec9da9552e464e3a3)](https://preview.redd.it/el9inu75kq971.png?width=1066&format=png&auto=webp&s=950d9158e1ede602b68c834ec9da9552e464e3a3)
+
+If a Robinhood customer buys shares that are cleared by Citadel Securities, their delivery is not a problem for Robinhood *unless it takes longer than 35 days*. Once a security has taken longer than 35 days to be delivered, Robinhood is responsible for delivering it to their customer. Citadel still has to deliver the security too, but they deliver to Robinhood. So, the chain of obligation goes like this:
+
+1.  Your broker/dealer owes you the security they sold you
+
+2.  The market maker owes your broker the security they sold to the broker
+
+3.  The seller of the security owes the market maker the security they sold to the market maker
+
+The key point is that *your broker is the one who owes you the shares you buy.* If someone else fails to deliver those shares, it's your broker's problem (although they have some ability to make this into your problem, there were too many GME shares owed to avoid their SHO obligations).
+
+*(Expanded explanation, boring - you should skip)*
+
+So, if I want to sell a share on the market (strictly hypothetical, I've never actually tried selling), then I do not owe the sold share directly to the buyer of that share. I send my sell order into the market via my broker and they send that off to the market center where the order is executed by a market maker. I sell my share to the market maker executing the trade. The market maker then sells that share to the broker of whichever ape has brought it and the broker then sells that share to the buyer. Assuming this goes smoothly, my share ends up in the account of the buyer. However, technically speaking, I do not owe the security to the buyer. I owe the security to the market maker, who owes it to the broker, who owes it to the buyer. So, if something goes wrong, and I fail to deliver that share, I have not defaulted on my sale to the buyer, I have defaulted on my sale to the market maker executing the trade. That market maker still owes the share to the buyer's broker, regardless of my failure.
+
+*(End of skippable content)*
+
+I suspect that Citadel had been failing to deliver GME shares to Robinhood for an extended period, which is why Robinhood halted buying. Their primary motive was not to help Citadel, but to protect themselves *from* Citadel. After 35 days of failure, Robinhood has to buy the shares they expected Citadel to deliver for their customers. Effectively, due to Citadel's failures to deliver, Robinhood had inherited Citadel's short position. Citadel owed Robinhood and Robinhood owed their customers. I should clarify that, in this scenario, Citadel still owes Robinhood the shares at some point, but Robinhood has to deliver them to their customers *now*. At first, Robinhood didn't care that Citadel owed shares to their customers, until it went on for too long and Robinhood was on the hook to deliver.
+
+Proof: the timing lines up
+
+For this to be true, you would expect there to be a relationship between when Robinhood halted trading and the 35 day threshold. If you look at my recent [post on the relationship between the threshold security list and the January price spike](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/oao9oo/the_nyse_threshold_list_collapsing_shorts_and/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3) you'll see that GME was on the threshold list for 39 consecutive settlement days, from early December to early February. Robinhood halted trading on January 28, which is *day 35* of this 39 day streak. The trading halt aligns with when the obligation for Robinhood to deliver kicks in. As soon as the undelivered shares became Robinhood's problem, trading was halted. Frankly, I would have expected them to halt trading earlier than the final moment, day 35, but perhaps waiting until the last moment will allow them some legal defense in the court cases to come?
+
+Proof: the weird cost basis after transfer
+
+A number of users pointed out that their [purchase prices and dates were incorrectly reported when transferring from Robinhood to other brokers](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/ncezct/so_robinhood_finally_sent_over_my_cost_basis_from/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3). I suspect this is because Robinhood initially sold their users the shares based on delivery promises made by Citadel that Citadel then failed to fulfil. So, after 35 days, Robinhood had to fulfil them instead. My guess is that this process was an absolute mess because it required Robinhood to at least appear to be purchasing GME shares from someone *other* than Citadel, which is rather awkward when Citadel is a designated market maker for GME on all major exchanges. The transaction dates and prices are wrong because the trade that was eventually settled for your GME shares *was not the same trade you sent to your broker* - that trade failed and Robinhood had to redo it after 35+ days.
+
+This might help explain why [my analysis of the 605 data](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nc1h4o/findings_from_my_analysis_of_605_data_huge_short/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3) found that the proportion of GME order executions done through NASDAQ spikes in February, despite being almost non-existent prior to Feb 2021. If Robinhood needs to buy-up GME without going *directly* through Citadel, they'll need to get inventive and perhaps even use over the counter purchases. So, go to a market center that has very little history of executing GME orders - NASDAQ. It's possible that Robinhood borrowed/brought GME from a variety of places to cover for the clusterfuck Citadel dumped them with, and then allocated those GME shares that actually got delivered to customers that transferred. If you had a massive shambles of shares like this, it might manifest in an inaccurate and messy purchase history for your customers.
+
+Proof: others halted trading too
+
+Robinhood wasn't the only one that halted trading. It's difficult, but not impossible, for Citadel to have orchestrated this behind the scenes. It's much easier to explain this seemingly organized trading halt by pointing out that the brokers who halted trading *only halted trading when they themselves became obligated to deliver the shares in question.* This is why they halted trading *after* the price had already been spiking - my guess is that Citadel was putting on pressure behind the scenes too, but I don't think it's a coincidence that trading didn't actually halt until the time arrived that the brokers themselves were threatened with delivery obligations.
+
+Context and discussion: saving Citadel
+
+Notice that my theory does not do Robinhood any favors - this is not a defense of them or their actions. I suspect, as was claimed during the congressional hearings, the trading halt was the main reason the January spike ended. If my theory is correct, it's likely that the ending of the January spike saved Citadel. This claim is nothing new. What I think my theory adds to the discussion is a better explanation of why Robinhood and others did this. Remember, the buying halt was a disaster for Robinhood! They were dragged in front of congress, their reputation is in tatters, and they're bleeding customers. Halting buying was *not* a good play. My guess is that they knew it would be a disaster and did it anyway. I think that this is why they waited right up until day 35 of GME's run on the threshold list - they didn't help Citadel until the only other option was delivering the undeliverable. In January, those who halted trading were slated to be the first victims of the MOASS.
+
+Further implications: MOASS is so slow because Citadel has hostages
+
+I suspect that the implications of what almost happened to Robinhood in January are why we're seeing some of the recent regulation changes ('clarifications'). I think that it was *Robinhood and not Citadel that was squeezed in the January spike*. Citadel is a market maker with its own market center, it has privileges and exemptions that make it quite resilient (as we've found out over the past six months). Robinhood does not have the same level of protection from its exposures, once the 35 day settlement mark passed, they had to deliver shares. It was the brokers that needed to buy shares from the 28th onwards: Citadel's failures to deliver were, in the short term at least, the brokers' problem. For all we know, Citadel didn't cover any of the deliveries that finally got GME off the threshold list at the beginning of February and managed to force the brokers to do it for them. If they were willing to abuse the market enough, perhaps via abuse of NASDAQ in February as my previously linked post discusses, Citadel might have even used the brokers need to deliver as a way of *expanding* their short position substantially while 'technically' resolving the failures to deliver (kicking the can down the road to another day). I guess there is no better ally than one who has to pay your debt if you go under...
+
+So, if my theory is correct, January almost saw Citadel's failures result in *someone else* getting squeezed! Perhaps this is why the trading halt became the focus of the congressional hearings. Maybe this is why the DTCC has focused so many of their new regulations on clarifying what happens if positions need to be forcibly closed. January might have demonstrated that a market center, such as Citadel Securities, could contrive a scenario where they force *someone else to be squeezed by their short position!*
+
+In [my post examining the February gamma](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/mvvuhp/feb_2426_failed_launch_attempt_and_proof_the_dtcc/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3), I argue that the bizarre market activity near the end of February was a failed attempt to begin the MOASS. If my theory that Robinhood, not Citadel, was being forced to deliver in January is correct, I don't think it's any surprise that attempts to begin the MOASS have been prevented since January. The regulations required updating to prevent Citadel from forcing others to be squeezed before they were. If I am correct, Citadel was holding everyone hostage. The embodiment of too big to fail: not just because of the havoc their sudden demise would cause, but because *they wouldn't be squeezed until after the squeezing of all the smaller parties caught in the impossibly convoluted web of failures to deliver and rehypothecation that Citadel shat into the market.* Lots of entities were exposed to the squeeze, and Citadel was setup to be hit last.
+
+The MOASS can't launch until the hostages are safe. It needs to be Citadel that's squeezed. Otherwise, the squeeze might wreak havoc on the market with no guarantee that the one responsible dies too. There was no choice but to wait. Meanwhile, Citadel is a huge market center with substantial political clout and presence in the regulators themselves. So, setting up the regulations for the MOASS took time. It was urgent, but those involved were regulating against one of their own.
+
+I think this offers a compelling explanation for what we've been living through over the last six months because it attributes a strong motive to the parties involved to remain silent. Explaining why this debacle has lasted six months is very difficult. It's an absolute disaster and we haven't even heard anything from the SEC. What could justify this level of cooperation to keep lips tight, just to delay the inevitable? Why such slow action as the problem gets bigger? My guess is that Citadel has hostages and it's taking a lot of careful work behind the scenes to figure out how to be sure that Citadel is the one that takes the fall. With everyone's hands tied and the need for secrecy so high, the job takes time.
+
+As a disgusting parting thought, I should mention that, if I'm right, my theory predicts that those responsible will suffer only minimal punishment. I suspect it's taken six months because they've needed at least some cooperation from Citadel to sort this out. If this is true, my guess is that Citadel spent February trying to get out of their predicament and refused to cooperate with attempts to arrange the MOASS that will kill them. The February gamma might have been other parties preventing Citadel's efforts to make the situation worse and forcing Citadel to come to the negotiating table. During the early months we saw market activity that indicated whales were fighting each other. I think this was Citadel trying to escape their own trap and whales preventing them, knowing it was too dangerous to let Citadel make things worse while it held the system hostage. Notice that this explains why, relatively speaking, the GME activity calmed slightly as this dragged on: Citadel was forced to the negotiating table and has been helping plan and regulate its own destruction. I suspect the payment for this cooperation will be those involved getting off lightly, because the alternative would be to have the MOASS without them releasing the hostages. Unfortunately, if I'm right, we'll see those responsible living in Florida after this is over. Bankrupt and embarrassed, but more comfortable than the plebs.
+
+Obvious but crucial disclaimer: I am a random on the internet spinning yarns about a conspiracy theory. As I was posting this thread, I decided to literally wear a tinfoil hat. Anyone reading this should understand my tinfoil attire to mean that I am not competent enough to be offering any advice or taken seriously. Readers must carefully examine any claims made here independently and not regard my words as authoritative.
+
+Thank you to [u/RoutineYesterday267](https://www.reddit.com/u/RoutineYesterday267/) for a post that led to me writing this

Confirmation-Bias-and-Discussion/2021-07-07-The-Whole-Stock-Market-is-Being-Propped-Up-by-the-RRP-Market.md

@@ -0,0 +1,57 @@
+The whole stock market is being propped up by the RRP market and today I got confirmation bias.
+===============================================================================================
+
+| Author       | Source       | 
+| :-------------: |:-------------:|
+|  [u/titaniumoxide202](https://www.reddit.com/user/titaniumoxide202/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/ofr285/the_whole_stock_market_is_being_propped_up_by_the/) | 
+
+---
+
+
+[Education 👨‍🏫 | Data 🔢](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22Education%20%F0%9F%91%A8%E2%80%8D%F0%9F%8F%AB%20%7C%20Data%20%F0%9F%94%A2%22&restrict_sr=1)
+
+I saw a wrinkly brained ape's youtube video (sorry I watch so much shit I can't find who made it) on how the dow jones, S&P, prime brokerages and big banks' (including international ones) stocks tank at around 10 am and then suddenly recover because they NEED the RRP market to post more collateral. I didn't believe it until I checked the charts today. These charts look IDENTICAL to each other. The price is not only wrong for GME but the entire global stock market price is wrong too. HOLY. FUCKING. MOLY. JACKED=TITs.
+
+Edit: <https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J5J1pW1rVA8> here's the link. Thanks [u/The_Fake_King](https://www.reddit.com/u/The_Fake_King/)
+
+P.S They aren't even trying to be discrete anymore. They are DESPERATE.
+
+[![r/Superstonk - The whole stock market is being propped up by the RRP market and today I got confirmation bias.](https://preview.redd.it/dy7erkoclu971.png?width=1242&format=png&auto=webp&s=33f90da5abc2f22e292676225f5e7d7ac247114b)](https://preview.redd.it/dy7erkoclu971.png?width=1242&format=png&auto=webp&s=33f90da5abc2f22e292676225f5e7d7ac247114b)
+
+[![r/Superstonk - The whole stock market is being propped up by the RRP market and today I got confirmation bias.](https://preview.redd.it/0ajrqecxku971.png?width=1242&format=png&auto=webp&s=ba15822bc72953300d9ffdb838d12a3915fa197b)](https://preview.redd.it/0ajrqecxku971.png?width=1242&format=png&auto=webp&s=ba15822bc72953300d9ffdb838d12a3915fa197b)
+
+[![r/Superstonk - The whole stock market is being propped up by the RRP market and today I got confirmation bias.](https://preview.redd.it/6jxs7ccxku971.png?width=1242&format=png&auto=webp&s=8e4384605d0fd84000c9de41fb91bf3a644b9293)](https://preview.redd.it/6jxs7ccxku971.png?width=1242&format=png&auto=webp&s=8e4384605d0fd84000c9de41fb91bf3a644b9293)
+
+[![r/Superstonk - The whole stock market is being propped up by the RRP market and today I got confirmation bias.](https://preview.redd.it/n9dxpn3kku971.png?width=1242&format=png&auto=webp&s=1c98442d7f3487e88f49aa65bc65125be00323da)](https://preview.redd.it/n9dxpn3kku971.png?width=1242&format=png&auto=webp&s=1c98442d7f3487e88f49aa65bc65125be00323da)
+
+[![r/Superstonk - The whole stock market is being propped up by the RRP market and today I got confirmation bias.](https://preview.redd.it/b2y4jz3kku971.png?width=1242&format=png&auto=webp&s=7a214711c089e322f9bbab4d5206dd7588874fff)](https://preview.redd.it/b2y4jz3kku971.png?width=1242&format=png&auto=webp&s=7a214711c089e322f9bbab4d5206dd7588874fff)
+
+[![r/Superstonk - The whole stock market is being propped up by the RRP market and today I got confirmation bias.](https://preview.redd.it/vs1v0t3kku971.png?width=1242&format=png&auto=webp&s=86a56c683e85961d8b485643cfd8657506111405)](https://preview.redd.it/vs1v0t3kku971.png?width=1242&format=png&auto=webp&s=86a56c683e85961d8b485643cfd8657506111405)
+
+[![r/Superstonk - The whole stock market is being propped up by the RRP market and today I got confirmation bias.](https://preview.redd.it/zrnf6m3kku971.png?width=1242&format=png&auto=webp&s=3cf7085790430cc788d36832cf60f3e3d506cae5)](https://preview.redd.it/zrnf6m3kku971.png?width=1242&format=png&auto=webp&s=3cf7085790430cc788d36832cf60f3e3d506cae5)
+
+[![r/Superstonk - The whole stock market is being propped up by the RRP market and today I got confirmation bias.](https://preview.redd.it/sbfbnp3kku971.png?width=1242&format=png&auto=webp&s=11958c4e60087c5a90836bbe5b6cb907f85d0143)](https://preview.redd.it/sbfbnp3kku971.png?width=1242&format=png&auto=webp&s=11958c4e60087c5a90836bbe5b6cb907f85d0143)
+
+[![r/Superstonk - The whole stock market is being propped up by the RRP market and today I got confirmation bias.](https://preview.redd.it/428koz3kku971.png?width=1242&format=png&auto=webp&s=966b2ebec618ca1f77a7c7b6e22d1a92f0df389f)](https://preview.redd.it/428koz3kku971.png?width=1242&format=png&auto=webp&s=966b2ebec618ca1f77a7c7b6e22d1a92f0df389f)
+
+[![r/Superstonk - The whole stock market is being propped up by the RRP market and today I got confirmation bias.](https://preview.redd.it/34duc34kku971.png?width=1242&format=png&auto=webp&s=87817270edad52fdaa030912dd78df70d589532e)](https://preview.redd.it/34duc34kku971.png?width=1242&format=png&auto=webp&s=87817270edad52fdaa030912dd78df70d589532e)
+
+[![r/Superstonk - The whole stock market is being propped up by the RRP market and today I got confirmation bias.](https://preview.redd.it/hgwpsc4kku971.png?width=1242&format=png&auto=webp&s=69d9e5e346aca7d1eba6def5855a29abeb88dd16)](https://preview.redd.it/hgwpsc4kku971.png?width=1242&format=png&auto=webp&s=69d9e5e346aca7d1eba6def5855a29abeb88dd16)
+
+[![r/Superstonk - The whole stock market is being propped up by the RRP market and today I got confirmation bias.](https://preview.redd.it/9ht1o34kku971.png?width=1242&format=png&auto=webp&s=842bae394de413b9510f5d08c352857a68ef1541)](https://preview.redd.it/9ht1o34kku971.png?width=1242&format=png&auto=webp&s=842bae394de413b9510f5d08c352857a68ef1541)
+
+[![r/Superstonk - The whole stock market is being propped up by the RRP market and today I got confirmation bias.](https://preview.redd.it/i98i0j3kku971.png?width=1242&format=png&auto=webp&s=67caeb722a196092e2a1e67da20527d77e0d05e9)](https://preview.redd.it/i98i0j3kku971.png?width=1242&format=png&auto=webp&s=67caeb722a196092e2a1e67da20527d77e0d05e9)
+
+[![r/Superstonk - The whole stock market is being propped up by the RRP market and today I got confirmation bias.](https://preview.redd.it/6uj8sn3kku971.png?width=1242&format=png&auto=webp&s=7497d256e507fa949de849b9da4dc90adc15d88a)](https://preview.redd.it/6uj8sn3kku971.png?width=1242&format=png&auto=webp&s=7497d256e507fa949de849b9da4dc90adc15d88a)
+
+[![r/Superstonk - The whole stock market is being propped up by the RRP market and today I got confirmation bias.](https://preview.redd.it/e944tz3kku971.png?width=1242&format=png&auto=webp&s=fc4330182481ef3d07d2de1c382118804df8e3d2)](https://preview.redd.it/e944tz3kku971.png?width=1242&format=png&auto=webp&s=fc4330182481ef3d07d2de1c382118804df8e3d2)
+
+[![r/Superstonk - The whole stock market is being propped up by the RRP market and today I got confirmation bias.](https://preview.redd.it/y4um9l3kku971.png?width=1242&format=png&auto=webp&s=b57870485f4e9a347ed111fb9818a2cd3b31d064)](https://preview.redd.it/y4um9l3kku971.png?width=1242&format=png&auto=webp&s=b57870485f4e9a347ed111fb9818a2cd3b31d064)
+
+[![r/Superstonk - The whole stock market is being propped up by the RRP market and today I got confirmation bias.](https://preview.redd.it/xtvl7h3kku971.png?width=1242&format=png&auto=webp&s=7141d752ff4b045c31d55e7a6102f30065e4657d)](https://preview.redd.it/xtvl7h3kku971.png?width=1242&format=png&auto=webp&s=7141d752ff4b045c31d55e7a6102f30065e4657d)
+
+[![r/Superstonk - The whole stock market is being propped up by the RRP market and today I got confirmation bias.](https://preview.redd.it/ydb8fm3kku971.png?width=1242&format=png&auto=webp&s=3d0d72944c9e3460130082225467e84bacdb0bcc)](https://preview.redd.it/ydb8fm3kku971.png?width=1242&format=png&auto=webp&s=3d0d72944c9e3460130082225467e84bacdb0bcc)
+
+[![r/Superstonk - The whole stock market is being propped up by the RRP market and today I got confirmation bias.](https://preview.redd.it/qwealf3kku971.png?width=750&format=png&auto=webp&s=9d00ae8ae35037eca09ea48368d9e668ac0b336e)](https://preview.redd.it/qwealf3kku971.png?width=750&format=png&auto=webp&s=9d00ae8ae35037eca09ea48368d9e668ac0b336e)
+
+[![r/Superstonk - The whole stock market is being propped up by the RRP market and today I got confirmation bias.](https://preview.redd.it/7fa0xk3kku971.png?width=750&format=png&auto=webp&s=edcc8956475920c1f7a75638e49c5d42cc42594c)](https://preview.redd.it/7fa0xk3kku971.png?width=750&format=png&auto=webp&s=edcc8956475920c1f7a75638e49c5d42cc42594c)

Confirmation-Bias-and-Discussion/All-the-Pieces-Theory-by-swede-child-of-mine/2021-04-08-All-the-Pieces-Part-I.md

@@ -0,0 +1,168 @@
+Theory: ALL THE PIECES, pt. 1 -- The Anatomy of the Crime of Citadel
+===================================================================
+
+| Author       | Source       | 
+| :-------------: |:-------------:|
+|  [u/swede_child_of_mine](https://www.reddit.com/user/swede_child_of_mine/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/mn0q9q/theory_all_the_pieces_pt_1_the_anatomy_of_the/) | 
+
+---
+
+[DD 👨‍🔬](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22DD%20%F0%9F%91%A8%E2%80%8D%F0%9F%94%AC%22&restrict_sr=1)
+
+*"Behind every great fortune there is a crime" -- Balzac*
+
+This post is the collective narrative behind the plays on GME by large institutions. This will be a multi-part DD post gathered from excellent insights on this sub. As there have been no open confessions of these activities by the perpetrators (a la Bernie Madoff), or books that have yet been written, this will only exist as a theory with pieces of evidence to support where we can. It is designed to be high-level, approachable, supported by available sources where possible, and represent key players and interests as it relates to the events surrounding GME. It is incomplete. Where information cannot be confirmed, it will be marked as rumor or speculation and should be treated as such, but it should not be a rabbit-hole. It will be ongoing and require updating as well as contributions from you, outlined below:
+
+-   [] - request for link to relevant DD (DD posts or legitimate sources)
+
+-   /e?/ - expert insight requested (e.g. legal review -- I'll try to call out specific users that are known for their specialties on this sub)
+
+-   /R/ - further research requested
+
+(Setting expectations for the veteran readers of [r/GME](https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/) and [r/SuperStonk](https://www.reddit.com/r/SuperStonk/): you will already be familiar with many of the terms, events, and points described in this first post. However, even if it is already familiar to you, I hope this post will still be a valuable summary and an easy introduction for anyone who wants to know more about the stock. Please feel free to contribute sources you might see are missing)
+
+* * * * *
+
+Part 1: The Crime of Citadel
+
+$GME
+
+The current price of GameStop stock is artificial. In simpler terms, the price of $GME is not determined by normal market dynamics - supply and demand. This is because Citadel and others have been illegally manufacturing fraudulent shares of GME, abusing their special designation as Market Maker to profit their firms. The more straightforward term for their activity is *share counterfeiting*. Citadel & others have been counterfeiting shares of GME, profiting from non-existent shares, dumping fraudulent stock to lower the price, and abusing system lapses to hide their activities. Their scheme that has grown wildly out of hand and now threatens to wipe out many more firms in the market due to their risky behaviors.
+
+An overview of the mechanics of this scheme:
+
+FTD (for Failure To Deliver) -- a key term to understand
+
+1\.  FTD is a standardized term for a delay in delivering a share that's been purchased. *In the context of Citadel, an FTD represents a counterfeit share.*
+
+-   In the US market, a share can be sold regardless of whether or not it actually exists. The financial system accepts the transaction at face value so that the buyer can continue trading.
+
+-   The delay in delivering a share is meant to be temporary...
+
+-   ...but for Citadel's case, they never had the share they sold; they abused their position to "sell" something they didn't have.
+
+-   Outright share counterfeiting is highly illegal, and one of the financial crimes that [carries prison sentences](https://www.criminaldefenselawyer.com/crime-penalties/federal/Securities-Fraud.htm)
+
+-   For Citadel to perpetrate this crime, they needed to hide it among their transactions and appear legitimate (FTD's can be legitimate, and enforcement is subjective "[*...will depend on the facts and circumstances of the particular activity*](https://www.sec.gov/divisions/marketreg/mrfaqregsho1204.htm)")
+
+Citadel's Scheme, Part 1: Create a Share, Legitimately
+
+1\.  [Citadel](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Citadel_LLC)'s activities are recognized as a ["bona-fide" Market Maker](https://www.mmlawus.com/newsitem/alerts/larry-bergmann-addresses-regulation-sho-and-bona-fide-market-making/), an industry designation which allows them special authorities and responsibilities.
+
+-   One of their special authorities is to "create" shares in the marketplace as part of their role of providing liquidity. ("Liquidity" is finance speak for -- "keeping the shelves full with the stocks people want")
+
+-   Citadel is allowed to execute transactions without owning the share -- i.e. Market Makers can temporarily "create" a share from nothing -- with the understanding that it is illegal to manufacture shares for their own profit.
+
+-   This "temporarily created share" is recorded as a "short": designed to be sold to the marketplace then bought back within a brief period of time, to prevent an enduring non-existent share in the marketplace.
+
+-   "Shorting" is also a common practice of borrowing a share from someone else's account. The borrowed share is sold into the marketplace, and ideally bought back at a lower price and returned to the account (many financial companies do this legally, Citadel included).
+
+-   Both traditional shorting and "bona-fide" market maker shorting creates a "legitimate" non-existent share -- temporarily. Again, the non-existent share is meant to be a placeholder until a real share is delivered.
+
+-   If the share is out in the marketplace long enough without being repurchased, the share is flagged as an FTD -- failure to deliver -- since there was no *actual* share delivered. If it is never reconciled, it becomes counterfeit.
+
+Citadel's Scheme, Part 2: It's Only Illegal If You Get Caught
+
+1\.  The process of determining an FTD is technically complex. There are regulations for the amount of days which need to pass [before a share is declared an FTD](https://www.sec.gov/investor/pubs/regsho.htm).
+
+-   Additionally, *AFTER* a share is delcared an FTD, there are additional times allowed for counterfeit shares to to be rebought, with even more time allotted for Market Makers to do so.
+
+-   But once the allotted time passes and the delivery is still failed, the party at fault is subject to enforcement measures.
+
+-   The enforcement measures are weak -- [small fines levvied far after the violation](https://financefeeds.com/citadel-securities-fined-275k-reporting-violations-700k-fine-2020/) (generally for less than the profit made from the activities)...
+
+-   ...and it is difficult to track. Individual shares may trade dozens or hundreds of times per day, and there is no way to follow the path -- or origin -- of each individual share.
+
+-   So the "counterfeit" share is logged against the overall pool of shares, not knowing which particular one is non-existent. But the contracts for the sale remains on the books of the parties involved.
+
+-   And while enforcement agencies are not interested in small volumes of counterfeit shares or low cost shares, Citadel has been manufacturing millions of fraduluent shares at a price of hundreds of dollars each, getting away with it under the guise of "bona-fide" Market Maker activities that have yet to be settled.
+
+-   However, any company with a "short" position on their books will retain the debt of the counterfeit share for the duration it is on the market...
+
+Citadel's Scheme, Part 3: Take the Money...
+
+1\.  Once the counterfeit share is sold and becomes an FTD, there are several options for addressing the FTD.
+
+-   Buying a share in the marketplace is the primary way of closing out an FTD. This also closes out the "short" position that is on the seller's books.
+
+-   A second way to close an FTD is when the price of the stock goes to $0, and the stock gets de-listed. This voids *all* of that company's stock, including the fraudulent shares. [] The FTD problem simply goes away with all of the other stock.
+
+-   For a party engaged in the criminal act of counterfeiting shares, their main interest is in avoiding consequences of FTDs - not getting caught. They intend to sell shares they never have and never pay for them.
+
+-   Paying for shares from the marketplace is undesirable to Citadel, not only because it increases costs ("the cost of legitimacy"), but also because the price of shares could go up and make the transaction a loss.
+
+-   Flooding the market with shares also has the added effect of dropping the price of the stock, because the market is overwhelmed with supply...
+
+-   ...and if the price goes so low that the stock gets de-listed, the "debt" of the shares on the seller's books becomes a writeoff, which they will enjoy a tax benefit from [].
+
+-   So bankrupting copmanies is the most desirable outcome from share counterfeiters. The targeted company is an unfortunate casualty, chosen for its ability to be shorted into bankruptcy.
+
+-   This is the first part of Citadel's scheme: target a company, flood the market with counterfeit shares, drop the price of the stock to $0, walk away with the profits from the counterfeit shares, and enjoy the tax writeoff.
+
+-   Note: Short positions are not publicly disclosed, and a company's banruptcy closes all positions, so tracing these activities to Citadel is extremely difficult. These activites can happen entirely behind closed doors and leave little evidence in the public marketplace. That is what this sub has been working with: trace evidence of counterfeiting activities in the marketplace.
+
+Citadel's Scheme, Part 4: ...and Run
+
+1\.  Profitably closing an FTD (either via bankrupcy or repurchase) requires one thing: the price of the target stock to go down.
+
+-   In this case, the $GME stock price went up during their scheme.
+
+-   This caused Citadel to find an alternative to closing the FTDs. So perhaps as a temporary stop-gap, or perhaps as a last resort, Citadel chose to perpetuate FTDs without closing them - they would keep the FTDs ongoing as long as they could, never getting caught, until circumstances let them exit their position. Hiding until they escape.
+
+-   Since FTDs are reported by *time*, Citadel figured they could reset the "timer" to avoid getting caught (very similar to floating credit card payments). They could do this two ways:
+
+-   First, they could short the traditional way -- borrow or acquire a batch of the shares from an exchange or *dark pool* (an off-exchange trading room), and then turn around and close their FTDs. Those new shorts would later become new FTDs, but it would give them a few days.
+
+-   Second, they could counterfeit additional shares. While it is uncertain if it was possible for Citadel to use counterfeit shares to close out FTDs [], their releasing more counterfeited shares into the marketplace let them easily borrow or buy the shares back, then turn around and close out the FTDs. Again, shorting gives a few more days until thes counterfeit shares became FTDs.
+
+-   Citadel could reset FTDs like this continuously, never running into the enforcement limits without being able to reset the FTD timer again.
+
+-   This would also keep the marketplace full of shares - normally a desirable outcome. But in the interest of their counterfeiting scheme, keeping an abundant supply of shares in the marketplace also keeps the stock price low, the availability of additional borrows high, and the interest on the borrowed shares low.
+
+-   And if Citadel was worried about availability, they could also re-borrow the share they just sold (i.e. borrow from A, sell to C, then borrow the same share from C -- a process known as "rehypothecation") -- a legal practice.
+
+Citadel's Scheme, Part 5: But at what cost?
+
+1\.  The cost of resetting the FTD timetable -- "kicking it down the road" -- is twofold:
+
+-   First, there is a daily interest paid on every shorted share Citadel has. The interest rate is decided by the lending organization, and is related to the price and availability of the share to be borrowed. []
+
+-   Second, for every short Citadel left open, the debt of that share remains on their books. As Citadel shorts more shares and as the price of the shares went up, their overall debt increases. If the debt gets too large, Citadel would potentially be "margin called" -- their debtors would force Citadel to pay up. [courtesy: [u/atobitt](https://www.reddit.com/u/atobitt/) - [Image of Citadel's 2020 "securities sold but not yet purchased"](https://preview.redd.it/83uepbgudqm61.png?width=829&format=png&auto=webp&s=7c8b1f1475be0cf61d55f87e29fd282c45833b3c)]
+
+-   It is unknown when or how large their debt must be before Citadel is margin called.[]
+
+-   Additionally, due to Citadel's activities it is difficult to know what a *legitimate* short term debt is on their books, from their legitimate activities, or what a fraudulent debt is from their counterfeiting activities.
+
+-   But by using a legitimate function to hide their scheme, they can achieve the illegal results -- selling shares which they don't have and never intend to deliver.
+
+-   Citadel's activities also pose an extreme cost to the system. Fraudulent shares circulating in the marketplace means investors may become unsure that their shares are legitimate. Or investors may become unsure that the price of the stock is a reflection of legitimate supply and demand, but is instead artificial -- lowered because of a surplus of fake shares.
+
+* * * * *
+
+Addtional reading: [u/atobitt](https://www.reddit.com/u/atobitt/) 's - ["Citadel has no clothes"](https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/comments/m4c0p4/citadel_has_no_clothes/)
+
+[u/canhazreddit](https://www.reddit.com/u/canhazreddit/) 's - ["It's painfully obvious that when GME has a ton of FTDS, they're immediately reversing them with their hedgefuckery."](https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/comments/mijfq9/its_painfully_obvious_that_when_gme_has_a_ton_of/)
+
+* * * * *
+
+TL; DR & Summary: Citadel has been perpetrating a crime -- illegally counterfeiting shares into the marketplace in order to profit. They are selling shares they don't have and never intended to deliver. Citadel has been using their designation as a Market Maker to cover their activities as well as continue to counterfeit shares. This poses an increasing risk to their own business and moreso the overall market.
+
+Edit: [u/Vipper_of_Vip99](https://www.reddit.com/u/Vipper_of_Vip99/) smartly recommended updating the bullets to numbers.
+
+* * * * *
+
+Final note: here is an excerpt on Bernie Madoff from the [Madoff Investment Scandal wiki](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Madoff_investment_scandal):
+
+> At one point, Madoff Securities was the largest buying-and-selling "market maker" at the NASDAQ.
+
+>
+
+> In 1992, The Wall Street Journal described him:
+
+>
+
+> *... one of the masters of the off-exchange "third market" and the bane of the New York Stock Exchange. He has built a highly profitable securities firm, Bernard L. Madoff Investment Securities, which siphons a huge volume of stock trades away from the Big Board. The $740 million average daily volume of trades executed electronically by the Madoff firm off the exchange equals 9% of the New York exchange's. Mr. Madoff's firm can execute trades so quickly and cheaply that it actually pays other brokerage firms a penny a share to execute their customers' orders, --- Randall Smith, Wall Street Journal*
+
+And here is an excerpt from [Citadel's wiki](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Citadel_LLC#Citadel_Securities):
+
+> Citadel Securities automation has resulted in more reliable trading at lower costs and with tighter spreads. [...] Citadel Securities is the largest market maker in options in the U.S., executing about 25 percent of U.S.-listed equity options volume. According to the Wall Street Journal, about one-third of stock orders from individual investors is completed through Citadel, which accounts for about 10% of the firm's revenue. Citadel Securities also executes about 13 percent of U.S. consolidated volume in equities and 28 percent of U.S. retail equities volume.

Confirmation-Bias-and-Discussion/All-the-Pieces-Theory-by-swede-child-of-mine/2021-04-16-All-the-Pieces-Part-II.md

@@ -0,0 +1,208 @@
+Theory: ALL THE PIECES, pt. 2 -- The Deep End of the Pool
+========================================================
+
+| Author       | Source       | 
+| :-------------: |:-------------:|
+|  [u/swede_child_of_mine](https://www.reddit.com/user/swede_child_of_mine/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/ms9z0n/theory_all_the_pieces_pt_2_the_deep_end_of_the/) | 
+
+---
+
+[DD 👨‍🔬](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22DD%20%F0%9F%91%A8%E2%80%8D%F0%9F%94%AC%22&restrict_sr=1)
+
+[*There was Jimmy, and Tommy, and Me. - Goodfellas*](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=caCA0rUMR6U)
+
+This post is the collective narrative behind the plays on GME by large institutions. This will be a multi-part DD post gathered from excellent insights on this sub. As there have been no open confessions of these activities by the perpetrators (a la Bernie Madoff), or books that have yet been written, this will only exist as a theory with pieces of evidence to support where we can. It is designed to be high-level, approachable, supported by available sources where possible, and represent key players and interests as it relates to large players movements in GME. It is incomplete. Where information cannot be confirmed, it will be marked as rumor or speculation and should be treated as such, but it should not be a rabbit-hole. It will be ongoing and require updating as well as contributions from you, outlined below:
+
+-   [] - link to relevant DD requested (DD posts or legitimate sources)
+
+-   \ /e?/ - expert insight requested (e.g. legal review -- I'll try to call out specific users that are known for their specialties on this sub)
+
+-   \ /R/ - further research requested
+
+(Setting expectations for the veteran readers of [r/GME](https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/) and [r/SuperStonk](https://www.reddit.com/r/SuperStonk/): you will already be familiar with many of the terms, events, and points described in this first post. However, even if it is already familiar to you, I hope this post will still be a valuable summary and an easy introduction for anyone who wants to know more about the stock. Please feel free to contribute sources you might see are missing)
+
+* * * * *
+
+Part 2: The Deep End of the Pool
+
+The price of $GME is artificial. The [previous post](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/mn0q9q/theory_all_the_pieces_pt_1_the_anatomy_of_the/) covered how Citadel was perpetrating a crime, illegally counterfeiting shares to change the price of GME for profit. It is not alone in this crime. Multiple organizations are coordinating the same illegal activities in a larger scheme. Their illegal enterprise engages in share counterfeiting, price fixing, and conspiracy. Some of their crimes leave public evidence, but some of the activity takes place discreetly in *Dark Pools* - off exchange rooms where trades happen with fewer regulations and less visibility. The end result is that each organization abuses their position to profit in an illegal enterprise which jeopardizes the larger market.
+
+Key Terms
+
+1.  Market Maker (or "MM") -- a special role in a stock exchanges around the world. An MM's primary role is to provide liquidity, or "to make sure there are shares available to buy if people want them" as well as "make sure there is a buyer if people want to sell." Liquidity makes for easy buying and selling.
+
+-   Liquidity is also important because some companies want their stock price to be related to their company performance (a.k.a. - valuation), and not related to whether or not their shares are available (a.k.a. - scarcity). [More here](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/p/pricediscovery.asp)
+
+-   Since a Market Maker has control over the availability of shares -- which controls the price -- a Market Maker is required to remain "neutral" on its positions. They cannot put pressure on a stock on either the buy side or sell side. If they create a position on one side to meet demand, they must "hedge" on the other side by creating or owning an opposing position. This "neutralizes" their effects on the stock price, but still creates the liquidity.
+
+-   The designers of this framework presumed an honest Market Maker.
+
+Part 1: Recap -- The Shallow End
+
+1.  Citadel is the largest Market Maker for the NYSE. But Citadel has been using its powers as Market Maker to illegally counterfeit shares for profit.
+
+-   A Market Maker has the authority to temporarily create shares. Citadel has been abusing this to create *perpetual temporary shares* (or "naked shorts") by exploiting a reporting lapse in the system, so the *perpetual temporary shorts* aren't recognized as fraudulent.
+
+-   This is called a *naked short*, because there isn't a share "there", but the system shows it is and the system acts like it is.
+
+-   Citadel naked shorts both for profit and for tactical reasons. Tactically, when Citadel introduces more (counterfeit) shares into a limited supply, they can lower the price of the targeted stock by dilution...
+
+-   ...and if a stock becomes low enough, it gets de-listed. De-listing typically bankrupts the company and circumvents any consequences for the naked shorts. But the counterfeiter still profits -- at the expense of the company they bankrupted.
+
+-   However, with $GME, Citadel found itself unable to counterfeit enough shares to de-list the stock. Failure meant it needs to prevent the large amount of naked shorts from "Failing to Deliver" (or FTD) -- have their status realized as counterfeit by the regulators.
+
+-   Citadel needs to constantly close out and re-open ("refresh") the naked shorts it has flooded the market with, perpetuating the temporary shares.
+
+-   The cost to Citadel is twofold: daily interest on the legitimate shorts, and exposure to being *margin called* -- forced to pay for the fraudulent shares -- should the price of GME go high enough. Citadel is extremely motivated to prevent this from happening.
+
+Part 2: Marco
+
+1.  Citadel needs to abide by its responsibilities as a Market Maker when it creates a share; it needs to remain "neutral" on its MM positions.
+
+-   Creating a share is a "net short" position for a MM, meaning it creates downward pressure on the stock price. Even if they rent out the share for someone else to short it will still be a *net short* position.
+
+-   For a created share to be a sanctioned MM action, it must paired it with another, opposite position to make the entire action neutral.
+
+-   A MM can offset a short position by adding a "long" position -- which creates upward pressure on the stock price. A long position mostly means buying a share, buying call options, or selling put options.
+
+-   The long position plus the short position, mathematically balanced, equals a neutral position.
+
+-   An MM that illegally counterfeits shares is looking to minimize the costs of their neutral position. They will adopt the most cost-effective position possible.
+
+-   The most likely cost-effective counter to a "net short" position is to sell puts.
+
+-   And while Citadel is [no stranger to selling to itself](https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/comments/lnctgx/citadel_is_an_evil_corp_look_at_its_track_records/) (which is called a "wash sale"), the practice of being both the buyer and the seller attracts a regulator's attention. Which, is something Citadel likely doesn't want happening for its illegal shorting scheme. So it needs to sell the puts to an outside party.
+
+-   *This means Citadel needs another organization to collude with.*
+
+Part 3: Polo
+
+1.  If Citadel needs an accomplice, an easy target is a company that is already relying on Citadel in one way or another.
+
+-   Melvin lists Citadel as an investor[], and most likely depends on Citadel to be their Market Maker for securities orders.
+
+-   Melvin also embraces an aggressive shorting strategy[], which requires an abundance of shorts to execute.
+
+-   So the arrangement between Citadel and Melvin is thus:
+
+-   Citadel creates naked shares for Melvin to borrow or buy. Now Citadel is a "negative" position and they need to be a neutral position. Plus they are taking on risk by fabricating counterfeit shares...
+
+-   ...so Citadel writes ITM puts, and Melvin buys them - making Citadel net neutral. Pretend the premium on the puts is $5.
+
+-   Melvin immediately closes the position on the puts (a net $0 activity, and stems the risks to either party), and the transaction is complete.
+
+-   Melvin now has shorts to use, and Citadel nets $5 and remains neutral.
+
+-   The puts are merely a formality: they keep Citadel neutral and are a way to pay for the naked shorts.
+
+-   This is called a "married put" -- renting out a naked short tied to a put, for the price of the premium on the put.
+
+-   Afterwards, Melvin sells the naked shorts, profiting from the sale and also lowers the price of the stock closer to bankruptcy.
+
+-   And if things go badly for them, Citadel can compel Melvin to close out their shorts, or even intervene and close out the position themselves, while leveraging their powers as Market Maker.
+
+-   (*However, closing out seems unnecessary, doesn't it? Since they can always change a rising stock price with additional naked shorts...*)
+
+-   And if they want, Melvin and Citadel have additional means of concealing their activities:
+
+-   as part of the married put transaction, Melvin can turn and sell Citadel "out of the money" (OTM -- meaning, will expire worthless) calls as part of the transaction to make it look like standard activity.
+
+-   The combination of a put plus a call plus a share is called [a reverse conversion.](https://www.deepcapture.com/wp-content/uploads/2007.10.09-J-Welborn-Married-Puts-and-Reverse-Conversions.pdf)
+
+-   It's unclear if either Citadel or Melvin initiated the scheme. Citadel needs constant demand for the counterfeit shares, while Melvin needed abundant shorts - it's rumored that Melvin is a "[hitman hedge fund](https://www.reddit.com/r/WallStreetbetsELITE/comments/lw0cky/either_melvin_lied_about_closing_position_ms_in/)".
+
+-   But both parties needed someone who is unconcerned with the *actual* status of the shares being shorted. So it's clear both are aware of the illegal nature of the shares they are leveraging.
+
+This sub has noticed records of strange banks of calls and puts, which represent probable evidence for the scheme described here.
+
+* * * * *
+
+Evidence [1](https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/comments/m7xipv/whale_watching_the_sweeping_seas_318/) [2](https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/comments/lsnlte/ok_so_random_theory/) [3](https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/comments/mhv22h/the_si_is_fake_i_found_44000000_million_shorts/)
+
+* * * * *
+
+Part 4: A Shiver (The Deacons)
+
+1.  However, in the highly competitive world of corporate finance, successful strategies like Melvin's and Citadel's are tracked, followed, copied, and mirrored.
+
+-   Naked shorting has been [around for awhile](https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/comments/mexlpn/accidentally_released_and_incredibly_embarrassing/), and the payouts are obvious.
+
+-   Other hedge funds or investment banks likely copied Melvin's actions on the same targeted companies, [aiming to profit from their actions without needing to research the strategy too much](https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/comments/mcwu5m/mystery_of_the_negative_beta_solved_hfs_are/)...
+
+-   ...which makes it likely that Citadel was also *fabricating shares for other hedge funds.*
+
+-   So it isn't only Citadel -- there are others involved in this crime.
+
+-   Additional players could also profit, and [assist](https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/comments/m9bfp0/naked_short_selling_the_truth_is_much_worse_than/) either legally or illegally.
+
+-   Susquehanna SIG -- a major Market Maker for options, had [substantial interest](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/mlf82b/the_missing_citadels_frenemies_pfof_michael/) in this scheme. Their strategic puts could apply price pressure to the distressed companies and allow SIG to profit from the options placements -- and from price manipulation.
+
+-   Other investment banks and options sellers have also joined in. Their profits could be legal, approved market activity of buying puts or selling shorts. Or the profits could be illegal, resulting from naked shorting and manipulating the price downward.
+
+-   A partial list of large companies that have taken positions against GME include: [Melvin Capital, Citadel Advisors, SIG, UBS Group AG, Group One Trading, Citigroup, Wolverine Capital, and Maplelane Capital](https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/lw0g1g/the_industry_players_again_gme/).
+
+-   Coordinating their efforts can achieve a multiplier on their returns. By adopting the same positions as the others, each company assumed a smaller portion of exposure while enjoying the multiplied pressure from their group efforts.
+
+-   The risk of loss is still real, but it is diminished, and marginal compared to the collective assets and rewards.
+
+Part 5: The Deep
+
+1.  As the conspirators coordinated their attacks, they needed a way to operate without gaining public attention.
+
+-   They were used to operating within the parameters of the enforcement agencies (SEC, FINRA)...
+
+-   ...and their activities would be recorded, regardless, on the public register.[]
+
+-   But off-exchange trading venues -- a.k.a. Dark Pools -- would be perfect for their needs.
+
+-   Dark Pools have delayed reporting. The transactions themselves are allowed more time to be recorded (10s -- an eternity in trading time)...
+
+-   ...and have the benefit of not being publicly reported by FINRA until [*WEEKS*](https://www.sec.gov/divisions/marketreg/form-ats-n-filings.htm) after the transactions had taken place.
+
+-   And Dark Pools intentionally keep transactions as anonymous as possible. Again, all transactions would be received by the register and would include the parties involved. But bids and asks that *didn't* end up transacting are never disclosed -- masking the real positions and intentions.
+
+-   But the most valuable part for the conspirators: unlike public exchanges, transactions that take place in Dark Pools do not affect the official national price -- the NBBO.
+
+-   Meaning, they could execute the trades that *negatively* affected the price in the public exchanges...
+
+-   ...and then execute the trades that *positively* affected the price in Dark Pools.
+
+-   So the price would only go down from their activities.
+
+-   And naturally, they could do so in just such a way that they could achieve their goals without attracting regulatory or public attention. (They were extremely familiar with toeing that line).
+
+-   While it is unclear if they *actively discussed* this scheme or coordinated each of their roles (institutional relationships can be tentative, or circumstantial - best described as "frenemies")...
+
+-   ...the transactions would act as tacit collaboration between the firms. They would be able to figure out who else was working with them, and what their position was.
+
+-   Collectively, they are very aware of their mutual positions, even without having explicitly discussed them. The volume, type, location, time, and other positional details would most likely give away what and who was transacting...
+
+-   ...while acting as a signal for others to respond to. Showing an opportunity to be siezed.
+
+Again, the contributors of these subs have noticed high levels of corresponding transactions of $GME occuring in Dark Pools.
+
+* * * * *
+
+Evidence [1](https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/comments/mg5aui/hfs_traded_over_302_million_shares_of_gme_in_otc/) [2](https://www.reddit.com/r/Wallstreetbetsnew/comments/llbz1m/mindboggling_dark_pool_network_may_have_traded/) [3](https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/mnm8h0/gme_last_30_days_of_dark_pool_options_order_flow/)
+
+* * * * *
+
+Further reading on the overview: [u/boneywankenobi](https://www.reddit.com/u/boneywankenobi/) 's [deeper dive](https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/comments/mjzx9w/full_analysis_of_current_gme_si_proof_from_the/)
+
+Further reading on married puts: [u/broccaaa](https://www.reddit.com/u/broccaaa/) 's fantastic research [here](https://www.reddit.com/r/Wallstreetbetsnew/comments/mgof7q/the_naked_shorting_scam_revealed_lending_of/) and [here](https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/comments/mh6lnz/the_naked_shorting_scam_update_selling_nude_like/)
+
+Further reading on Dark Pools: [u/NoseBurner](https://www.reddit.com/u/NoseBurner/) 's [excellent recap](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/mpvm3a/into_the_heart_of_darkness_darkpools_and_fud/), which refers to [u/umu68](https://www.reddit.com/u/umu68/) 's [prolific work](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/movevb/dance_of_darkness_the_sec_and_dark_pools/)
+
+* * * * *
+
+TL;DR and Summary -- The speed, sophistication, and savvy of the firms illegally affecting the price of $GME and other stocks make it easy for them to collaborate. Each are playing their part -- naked shorting, writing options, providing legitimate cover, transacting in Dark Pools for effect -- according to their specialization. They are extremely financially incentivized to do so. Their familiarity with the regulations means they feel they are able to engage and even expand their scheme without legal consequences. And the tools they have at their disposal give them the means to execute their fraudulent enterprise at will. Some of the financial world's largest firms are complicit or are actively participating. They have assumed the public will not take notice, because the public had not taken notice. This line of reasoning is typically referred to as "Black Swan."
+
+* * * * *
+
+Calls to verify /e?/: [u/the_captain_slog](https://www.reddit.com/u/the_captain_slog/), [u/NoseBurner](https://www.reddit.com/u/NoseBurner/), [u/broccaaa](https://www.reddit.com/u/broccaaa/), [u/boneywankenobi](https://www.reddit.com/u/boneywankenobi/)
+
+Credit roll (in order of appearance): [u/krisoijn](https://www.reddit.com/u/krisoijn/), [u/G_KG](https://www.reddit.com/u/G_KG/), [u/ElevationAV](https://www.reddit.com/u/ElevationAV/), [u/dejf2](https://www.reddit.com/u/dejf2/), [u/DigitalSoldier1776](https://www.reddit.com/u/DigitalSoldier1776/), [u/bobfern37](https://www.reddit.com/u/bobfern37/), [u/animasoul](https://www.reddit.com/u/animasoul/), [u/VaseaPost](https://www.reddit.com/u/VaseaPost/), [u/pinkcatsonacid](https://www.reddit.com/u/pinkcatsonacid/), [u/skifunkster](https://www.reddit.com/u/skifunkster/), [u/bimnett](https://www.reddit.com/u/bimnett/), [u/StonkyFarts](https://www.reddit.com/u/StonkyFarts/), [u/DIY-Dude-123](https://www.reddit.com/u/DIY-Dude-123/)
+
+Special shout out to [u/GMEisLightandLove](https://www.reddit.com/u/GMEisLightandLove/), [u/beowulf77](https://www.reddit.com/u/beowulf77/)
+
+Final note - some relevant news this week: <https://www.reddit.com/r/news/comments/mqql1f/ap_source_ponzi_schemer_bernie_madoff_has_died_in/>

Crypto/2021-07-07-A-Crypto-Deep-Dive.md

@@ -0,0 +1,139 @@
+A crypto dive with the Jellyfish - 10 things about crypto that could be useful to know going into the 7/14 reveal.
+==================================================================================================================
+
+| Author       | Source       | 
+| :-------------: |:-------------:|
+|  [u/Dismal-Jellyfish](https://www.reddit.com/user/Dismal-Jellyfish/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/ofndb0/a_crypto_dive_with_the_jellyfish_10_things_about/) | 
+
+---
+
+
+[DD 👨‍🔬](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22DD%20%F0%9F%91%A8%E2%80%8D%F0%9F%94%AC%22&restrict_sr=1)
+
+[![r/Superstonk - A crypto dive with the Jellyfish - 10 things about crypto that could be useful to know going into the 7/14 reveal.](https://preview.redd.it/7du1kjnfot971.jpg?width=320&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=59591863e05125f8bd644d116f2b5d85aabac612)](https://preview.redd.it/7du1kjnfot971.jpg?width=320&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=59591863e05125f8bd644d116f2b5d85aabac612)
+
+Good afternoon r/Superstonk, Jellyfish here to try and discuss crypto (ducks!)
+
+1\. NFTs
+
+NFTs on E t h e r e u m are what I think everyone is most familiar with already. They are unique tokens that can be used by creators to tokenize a wide range of content (not just art).
+
+[![r/Superstonk - A crypto dive with the Jellyfish - 10 things about crypto that could be useful to know going into the 7/14 reveal.](https://preview.redd.it/lvao1vkmot971.png?width=891&format=png&auto=webp&s=5ff19d7073639abdfc1d05d3be0cd694c65a3d84)](https://preview.redd.it/lvao1vkmot971.png?width=891&format=png&auto=webp&s=5ff19d7073639abdfc1d05d3be0cd694c65a3d84)
+
+According to a report by decentralized app marketplace DappRadar, the average number of NFT sales rose almost 300%, from 21,815 per day in January, to 82,373 in May (so far). This number rose even higher as crypto prices started to plummet on May 12, with sales surging to almost 94,000 NFT transactions a day.
+
+2\. Smart Contracts
+
+Smart Contracts automatically executes code once specific terms have been met. They first started as programmable money but are decentralized digital legos capable of lending, borrowing, swapping, and much more to come.
+
+[![r/Superstonk - A crypto dive with the Jellyfish - 10 things about crypto that could be useful to know going into the 7/14 reveal.](https://preview.redd.it/8cdhs7zqot971.jpg?width=1600&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=e66c3ecbd4cddec46073ad8f9f1d495667d96801)](https://preview.redd.it/8cdhs7zqot971.jpg?width=1600&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=e66c3ecbd4cddec46073ad8f9f1d495667d96801)
+
+3\. DeFi
+
+DeFi: has exploded but in GameStop's case, I think it might be leveraged for flexibility and its non-custodial nature. With DeFi, GameStop can become its own bank and cut out costly middlemen. This is also why [I think GameStop should participate in this FDIC sprint](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/oevr9p/guys_the_fdic_might_not_realize_it_yet_but_they/)
+
+[](https://preview.redd.it/t9wyuo4sot971.gif?format=mp4&s=233a990c2aea7d7c4e3f3f967b390d3bf6e674d5)
+
+How it is today
+
+[![r/Superstonk - A crypto dive with the Jellyfish - 10 things about crypto that could be useful to know going into the 7/14 reveal.](https://preview.redd.it/dcbrp34uot971.png?width=729&format=png&auto=webp&s=5917e265b8dabec0ddd9e2f18eadf40f79015303)](https://preview.redd.it/dcbrp34uot971.png?width=729&format=png&auto=webp&s=5917e265b8dabec0ddd9e2f18eadf40f79015303)
+
+How it could be
+
+4\. Developers
+
+E t h e r e u m is attracting the world's developers. Since Q3 2019, E t h e r e u m has gained more than 300 developers per month, with GameStop entering the fray with:
+
+[Jordan Holberg @eviljordan](https://twitter.com/eviljordan), [Matt FinΞstonΞ | @finestonematt](https://twitter.com/finestonematt), [j@Cyberhorsey](https://twitter.com/Cyberhorsey)
+
+5\. Interoperability
+
+This is one area I feel many people are overlooking. E t h e r e u m will unlock potentially hundreds of billions of dollars in liquidity from POS blockchains through interchain accounts and interoperable staking.
+
+[Maybe they work with NFT Ghost?](https://twitter.com/ghostnft?lang=en)
+
+I see these guys as more of a competitor currently, but what if Dapper Labs want to take advantage of GameStop's brand loyalty customer base to market [Top Shot](https://nbatopshot.com/), [CryptoKitties](https://www.cryptokitties.co/?utm_source=dapperlabs), [Wizards](https://cheezewizards.com/?utm_source=dapperlabs), or [Dapper](https://www.meetdapper.com/?utm_source=dapperlabs) in the GameStop NFT Marketplace?
+
+-[What if they partner with Age of Rust and let it on the GameStop NFT marketplace?](https://enjin.io/powered-by-enjin/age-of-rust)
+
+0:00
+
+2:13
+
+Looks niffty!
+
+6\. Metaverse
+
+NFTs on E t h e r e u m will power a universe beyond our own like the Oasis in Ready Player One.
+
+Virtual reality technology will power an augmented reality of virtual space and tokenized in-app purchases.
+
+[![r/Superstonk - A crypto dive with the Jellyfish - 10 things about crypto that could be useful to know going into the 7/14 reveal.](https://preview.redd.it/ahbjvus6pt971.jpg?width=300&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=df069651e90d4016a1e16dbe2a3cd805b052b0eb)](https://preview.redd.it/ahbjvus6pt971.jpg?width=300&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=df069651e90d4016a1e16dbe2a3cd805b052b0eb)
+
+7\. Decentralized autonomous organizations (DAOs)
+
+DAOs are entities made up of any number of individuals who maintain the group's decisions in a distributed manner. Individuals can use tokens to vote and propose ideas they want for the protocol. I wouldn't be surprised if GameStop goes this route for governance. As a side note, I do see DAO's as the future of [r/Superstonk](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/) after MOASS for fairly and transparently kicking ass with tendies.
+
+[![r/Superstonk - A crypto dive with the Jellyfish - 10 things about crypto that could be useful to know going into the 7/14 reveal.](https://preview.redd.it/nir4ttr7pt971.png?width=446&format=png&auto=webp&s=e5f5cf8ed0f17e5573ea0a38d24e4d95279d8176)](https://preview.redd.it/nir4ttr7pt971.png?width=446&format=png&auto=webp&s=e5f5cf8ed0f17e5573ea0a38d24e4d95279d8176)
+
+8\. Layer Two (L2)
+
+There are a lot of projects working on layer two scaling solutions in an effort to scale E t h e r e u m---big argument against E t h e r u m as it stands now as it cannot process enough transactions efficiently to scale.
+
+L2 solutions (where GameStop will live) focus on highly complex topics ZK-rollups for example (great to have Matthew Finestone!) as they have the ability to bring E t h e r e u m to 2,000 TPS
+
+[![r/Superstonk - A crypto dive with the Jellyfish - 10 things about crypto that could be useful to know going into the 7/14 reveal.](https://preview.redd.it/fzc9kfvapt971.png?width=744&format=png&auto=webp&s=2ddf370809298a5b6d8e468d0cab18aea924e470)](https://preview.redd.it/fzc9kfvapt971.png?width=744&format=png&auto=webp&s=2ddf370809298a5b6d8e468d0cab18aea924e470)
+
+GameStop's head of blockchain comes by way of Loopring
+
+9\. EIP-1559
+
+I think the company should allocate a portion of that to staking e t h e r e u m and offering the ability to stake to GameStop's user base.
+
+In the future, I believe GME values decentralization of ownership of our digital assets, which is why we should buy and mint NFT's on GameStop's Blockchain.
+
+For the less blockchain familiar GameStop users, I think GameStop should open up the protocol to allow E t h e r e u m 2 staking with GME. Empower the players to secure the metaverse?
+
+For the balance sheet though, if you're staking on E t h e r e u m 2.0, E t h e r e u m 's parallel PoS network, your operations are earning you a roughly 8% annual percentage return (APR). This number is higher than the rate of inflation that we covered as well! Yes, E t h e r e u m fluctuates in price, but as we covered above, staking will also further secure and make the network stronger, which in turn does the same for the metaverse!
+
+EIP-1559 is in flight. What this means is that the net "issuance" of new coins minted is going to be dramatically lowered. To put it in perspective, the issuance rate right now is 4.5% per year, the estimates for the issuance rate after EIP 1559 is implemented are .5 - 1%. Why does this matter?
+
+So b I t c o in issuance halves every 4 years right? (this is what makes the stock-to-flow model tick) Well, an issuance drop from 4.5% is the equivalent of 3 halvenings happening at one time. (4.5 cut in half to 2.25 again to 1.125 and again to .56). E t h e r e u m is already at a multi-year low supply on exchanges, once this happens E t h e r e u m will become more instantly scarce. People have dubbed this the "Cliffening".
+
+Right now, a lot of the crypto user interfaces 'for the less tech-savvy' are more akin to trying to navigate Windows 2.0 30+ years ago.
+
+Currently, if you mess up a transaction (don't include enough gas for it to get picked up by a miner for example), the transaction will just sit. The process of updating said transaction can be *cumbersome* depending on how you are set up, to impossible if you are hoping to just have an iPhone like user experience.
+
+EIP-1559 is going to go a long way to help on the usability front for users.
+
+Clarifying further, with EIP-1559, anyone transacting would have to pay a total transaction cost, which would be known beforehand, completely eliminating the need for a bidding system, where your transaction could get stuck as I described above..
+
+I hope that helps and I didn't screw anything up too badly!
+
+But to tie this back to inflation, (because you know I can't help myself!), this also leaves the deflationary action of EIP-1559 intact :)
+
+10\. S t a b l e c o i n s
+
+E t h e r e u m is home to many stablecoins, which have grown bigly with differenrt use cases. For example:
+
+$U S D T: $62B
+
+$U S D C: $25B
+
+$D A I: $5B
+
+They are very popular for use in DeFi, but I think will be relevant to GameStop as VISA will soon accept transaction settlement in U S D C.
+
+[](https://preview.redd.it/3v18fr8ppt971.gif?format=mp4&s=ae903e7f3b199528835d94cb78012ad615595494)
+
+I hope this one makes it through Automod!
+
+Additional posts you may enjoy:
+
+<https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/o77tkp/is_anyone_else_totally_jacked_for_the_714/>
+
+<https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/oc8xb0/its_a_problem_now_its_going_to_be_a_huge_problem/>
+
+<https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/o9mk4q/does_anyone_else_think_comic_books_would_make_a/>
+
+<https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/ob8mzm/jellyfish_putting_on_his_tinfoil_hat_for_a/>

Crypto/NFT/2021-06-29-GME-NFT-Scamcoins-a-Retroactive-Analysis-on-how-to-Prevent-Getting-Scammed.md

@@ -0,0 +1,170 @@
+GME NFT Scamcoins, a Retroactive on yesterday events.
+=====================================================
+
+| Author       | Source       | 
+| :-------------: |:-------------:|
+|  [u/Lucent_Sable](https://www.reddit.com/user/Lucent_Sable/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/oa1bl7/gme_nft_scamcoins_a_retroactive_on_yesterday/) | 
+
+---
+
+[DD 👨‍🔬](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22DD%20%F0%9F%91%A8%E2%80%8D%F0%9F%94%AC%22&restrict_sr=1)
+
+Hey Apes!
+
+After yesterdays event where a user ended up purchasing a scam coin, I thought I would quickly write up a DD on how scamcoins commonly target uninformed GME investors.
+
+This is my first attempt at writing anything that looks like a DD, and I will be focusing on a retroactive of the event and some things that you can look out for to prevent becoming a victim of these scamcoins.
+
+If you think you are immune to being scammed, there is some interesting information on how easy it is to fool people on the internet [here](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dQw4w9WgXcQ).
+
+Please let me know if there is anywhere where I can add more context or information, and especially if I got anything wrong, or was unclear. I will be periodically updating this post with information from the comments to make it a better resource.
+
+1\. The anatomy of a scam
+
+Any scam has three core components.
+
+1.  Get the targets trust
+
+2.  Convince the target to give you their money
+
+3.  Get away before the target realizes they have been scammed.
+
+I will be covering these steps by giving examples from some common scams. I will then proceed to outline how I believe these steps happen in the new GME scamcoins.
+
+-   [Three-card Monte](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Three-card_Monte)
+
+-   A confidence scam where shills conspire with a scammer to convince a target that they can win money in a street game.
+
+-   [Forex Scam](https://www.investopedia.com/articles/forex/09/spot-a-forex-scam.asp)
+
+-   A scam where a "professional trader" has some "special formula" that they can use to invest your money in foreign exchange markets.
+
+-   [Tech support scam](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Technical_support_scam)
+
+-   A scammer calls a target and convinces them that there is a problem with their computer, which can only be fixed with their special antivirus software. The scammer will often request remote access to the targets computer, and may even request access to the targets bank account.
+
+-   [Romance Scam](https://www.fbi.gov/scams-and-safety/common-scams-and-crimes/romance-scams)
+
+-   The scammer pretends to be romantically interested in the target.
+
+1.1 Trust
+
+The first task of any scammer is to gain the targets trust. The target needs to believe that the scammer can provide something they want.
+
+Three-card Monte
+
+In this scam, the target wants to win a bet against the scammer in order to increase the amount of cash they have. The scammer gains trust by having shills publicly lose to them in the three-card Monte game, building the illusion that the target has a realistic chance of winning.
+
+Forex Scam
+
+In this scam, the target wants to earn passive income via investing. The scammer gains trust by showing the target some of the gains their trading platform or software is capable of. This is usually done through some form of internet communication, such as email or direct-messages on social media. Fabricated screenshots may be used to increase the perceived legitimacy of the scammer.
+
+Tech support scam
+
+The scammer pretends to be a representative of a well known company such as Microsoft or Amazon. They rely on the target trusting the reputations of large companies whose names they recognize, and the scammer may add a sense of urgency to the scam which can further impair the targets judgement.
+
+Romance Scam
+
+This is one of the more vile scams. The scammer builds the targets trust by pretending to be romantically interested in the target. The goal is to make the target believe that they have a genuine relationship with the scammer, and who doesn't trust the person they are in a relationship with!
+
+1.2 Extracting the targets money
+
+The second step, once the target trusts the scammer is to convince the target to give the scammer money.
+
+Three-card Monte
+
+This one is fairly obvious. The target puts forward money in a bet on the game, not knowing that the game is rigged and they cannot win. The scammer or shill may encourage the target to keep trying, as they "Just got unlucky". At this point the scam relies on the target believing that they can still make their money back, while they lose more and more.
+
+Forex Scam
+
+The scammer request access to the targets trading account, or requests that the target send them some money to get started. If the target is still hesitant, the scammer may request a smaller amount, and then provides some fake return on investment to further build the targets trust. The scammer will keep demanding higher deposits while promising that the system is working, until the target catches on.
+
+Tech support scam
+
+The scammer requests remote access to the targets computer, often under the guise of running diagnostics. Once they have "run their diagnostics", they will try to sell some overpriced antivirus software. To extract further money from the target, the scammer may call back at a later date, and either try to get the target to pay for a renewal, or offer a "refund" which they "over-pay", and then have the target send the difference back to them. Often the scammer edits HTML on the targets bank page, or has the transaction reversed before the target sends them the difference back.
+
+Romance scam
+
+The scammer contacts the target, who believes they are in a long distance relationship with the scammer. The scammer will tell the target that they have run into legal trouble, and need some money sent to them to cover bail or a lawyers fee. Other iterations of the scam may request money for fuel, gifts, medical bills, car repairs, or anything else you can imagine. The requests keep coming in as long as the target believes that the relationship is genuine. During this process the scammer will encourage the target to take out loans and max out credit cards, even borrow money from friends and family.
+
+1.3 The Getaway
+
+The final part of the scam is getting away without the target knowing they have been scammed, or not being able to do anything about it.
+
+Three-card Monte
+
+The target eventually realizes that they are not going to win, or runs out of cash. The scammer and shill may pack up the game in a hurry and run if the target is angry or indicates they may make trouble, otherwise they will just convince the target that they got unlucky. This scam is often targeted toward tourists, as this prevents targets coming to personally recognize the scammers.
+
+Forex and tech support
+
+The scammer will stop responding to the target, and will launder the money any number of ways. The target never actually knew the real identity of the scammer, and was most likely paying money into a stolen or foreign (or both) bank account.
+
+Romance Scam
+
+If the scammer is called out on their scam, they will often start gaslighting their target. Often, due to the nature of the relationship in the scam, the target will not believe that they are being scammed, even when provided with otherwise irrefutable evidence. If they do eventually catch on, the scammer often has the same anonymity as in the Forex and Tech support scams. The target doesn't know the scammers real identity and has little to no recourse to get their money back.
+
+2\. The GME NFT Scam
+
+At this point you are probably thinking: That's interesting Lucent_Sable, but what does it have to do with GME?
+
+2.1 History of GME NFT
+
+Apes recently discovered that Gamestop is working on something to do with Etherium NFT tokens. This was found through an official Gamestop website: [nft.gamestop.com](https://nft.gamestop.com/). This is our root of trust, we know that this is officially Gamestop, as it is on the Gamestop.com domain.
+
+On this website, there is an Etherium address: 0x13374200c29C757FDCc72F15Da98fb94f286d71e.
+
+Apes looked into this address on [etherscan](https://etherscan.io/address/0x13374200c29C757FDCc72F15Da98fb94f286d71e), and found the contract for a GME coin. We know that we can trust this contract at this specific address, because it is on the official Gamestop web-site.
+
+A screenshot of the etherscan page is available [here](https://i.imgur.com/u2Pvega.png).
+
+In the screenshot, the areas outlined in Green are things that we can trust as directly describing the contract and the creator of the contract. Areas outlined in Red are things that anyone can influence by interacting with the contract, we cannot trust the information in these as they are influenced by public activity. The area in black is an information block, related to what is selected.
+
+From the information on this page that we can trust, we can determine the following
+
+1.  The contract was created by another contract: 0xce0042B868300000d44A59004Da54A005ffdcf9f
+
+2.  The contract describes a token called Gamestop (GME)
+
+3.  The code of the contract, which has been analysed by apes for important information
+
+These are the facts about the contract that we know we can trust. [u/teacoat___](https://www.reddit.com/u/teacoat___/) consolidated this information in their [DD here](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nl0lk1/gme_token_info/).
+
+Now that we have established what we know, on to the scam...
+
+2.2 The scam
+
+Yesterday, [u/samyall](https://www.reddit.com/u/samyall/) noticed a transaction involving the GME contract, in [this thread](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/o9967o/gme_just_transferred_42069_gmetoken_to_itself_on/?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share).
+
+Let me be very clear: I am not accusing samyall of anything, and believe that they were deceived by the scammers.
+
+Image for following discussion [here](https://i.imgur.com/cZHRbfI.png).
+
+2.2.1 Building trust
+
+The information provided in samyalls post shows information on the "Erc20 Token Txns" tab. If a user is unfamiliar with what this is, they may incorrectly assume that the information in this tab is from Gamestop, as it is on the page for the official gamestop token. We know that this is not true and that anyone can send tokens to the contract address without Gamestop approving the transaction.
+
+Second, we can look at the address that sent this scamcoin to the official Gamestop contract. The address of this scammer is\
+0x133742073133c9aecdEC3a87e475C2945f23D6C0\
+which at first glance is very similar to the contract address\
+0x13374200c29C757FDCc72F15Da98fb94f286d71e\
+I believe that this address was specifically crafted to further build trust. The most recognisable first digits of the contract address and the scammers address (0x1337420) match, and many users would not look much further than that.
+
+Third, we look at the name of the token that the scammer sent to Gamestop. This scamcoin is called "GameStop (GME)", which is very similar to the official token name "Gamestop (GME)".
+
+Finally, we can look at the etherscan profile of the scammer address (image [here](https://i.imgur.com/yiRkV5U.png)) This shows that the scammer created 69,420,000 tokens. This is both similar to the number of outstanding shares ~70 Million, and a funny internet number (69 & 420 are in it). This further builds legitimacy as it is similar to what we would expect to see, and plays to our biases.
+
+2.2.2 Extracting money
+
+The scammer had convinced at least one member of our community ([u/shroommyBoom](https://www.reddit.com/u/shroommyBoom/)) was convinced by this scam coin, and lost about $30, in this [post](https://old.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/o99ms3/stay_calm_but_i_think_the_nft_is_now_available_to/). As you can see, the extraction of money from this scam is very easy, as all you have to do is convince the target that they want to purchase your scamcoin.
+
+2.2.3 The Getaway
+
+In this instance, the getaway is simple, as crypto provides both anonymity and irreversibility, so the scammer can simply disappear without anyone ever having known their identity.
+
+3\. Key Takeaways (TLDR)
+
+Be careful when interprating information about the Gamestop NFT, make sure that you can verify that you trust the source of the information. Just because the information is on the official contracts Etherscan page, doesn't mean the information is endorced by Gamestop.
+
+At least one member of the community has been scammed by this scammer, and lost a small amount of money.
+
+Scammers will try many tricks to get you to trust them, and separate you from your money. Don't fall for it, and if in doubt use the four-hour rule. Post on superstonk and give about 4 hours for other members of the community to analyze and sniff out anything suspicious. Remeber, nothing is urgent around here.

Crypto/NFT/2021-07-08-One-of-the-Addresses-Associated-with-GameStop-NFT-had-a-Transaction-Today.md

@@ -0,0 +1,44 @@
+One of the addresses associated with the GameStop NFT had a transaction today. Any wrinkle brains able to tell what it was used for?
+====================================================================================================================================
+
+| Author       | Source       | 
+| :-------------: |:-------------:|
+|  [u/clawesome](https://www.reddit.com/user/clawesome/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/ogjbcy/one_of_the_addresses_associated_with_the_gamestop/) | 
+
+---
+
+[etherscan.io/addres...](https://etherscan.io/address/0x10B16eEDe03cF73CbF44e4BFFFa3e6BFf36F1Fad)
+
+[Question ❓](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22Question%20%E2%9D%93%22&restrict_sr=1)
+
+---
+
+## Relevant Comment/Answer by [u/nuclear-falcon](https://www.reddit.com/user/nuclear-falcon/)
+
+---
+
+**Official Gamestop NFT Contract "GME NFT":**
+
+0x13374200c29C757FDCc72F15Da98fb94f286d71e
+
+**Was created by "Creator":**
+
+0x10b16eede03cf73cbf44e4bfffa3e6bff36f1fad
+
+"Creator" is the account in question that OP linked.
+
+*Creator is a contract itself!* If you go to the contract's [etherscan page](https://etherscan.io/address/0x10b16eede03cf73cbf44e4bfffa3e6bff36f1fad#readProxyContract) -> Contract -> "Read Contract as Proxy" you can get a little bit of information. The NAME field is "Gnosis Safe" which is a service in the form of a contract to force multiple people in a company to sign off on transactions before they happen, which is how you keep crypto at a company safe. [Here](https://help.gnosis-safe.io/en/articles/3876456-what-is-gnosis-safe) is a brief overview from their website.
+
+If you go to the Creator address, you'll see a transaction from ~8 hours ago and then one that happened ~5 minutes ago (all from the time of writing). The "Events" tab on etherscan allows you to see which functions were executed.
+
+Transaction from ~8 hours ago was to add "Add Owner" function execution. I think this means they added another person who can sign off on transactions.
+
+Transaction from ~5 minutes ago executed 2 functions:
+
+Remove Owner - to Remove a person/wallet from signing off on transactions
+
+Add Owner - same as the one from ~8 hours ago that adds someone
+
+**What I think this means:**
+
+The NFTeam is adding new people who have rights to sign off on transactions with the official GameStop company crypto. This is a security measure that means no single person at the company can control/steal/send crypto to anyone else

Crypto/NFT/2021-07-09-Explanation-of-launchDate-NFT-and-EIP1559.md

@@ -0,0 +1,59 @@
+An explanation of 'launchDate' 7/14 - NFT - EIP1559
+===================================================
+
+| Author       | Source       | 
+| :-------------: |:-------------:|
+|  [u/Hey_Madie](https://www.reddit.com/user/Hey_Madie/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/oh7ugx/an_explanation_of_launchdate_714_nft_eip1559/) | 
+
+---
+
+
+[Education 👨‍🏫 | Data 🔢](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22Education%20%F0%9F%91%A8%E2%80%8D%F0%9F%8F%AB%20%7C%20Data%20%F0%9F%94%A2%22&restrict_sr=1)
+
+To define, the Gamestop NFT had a 'launchDate' field in the code that defined to 7/14/2021. This is/was referencing the now rescheduled Ehtereum network upgrades to EIP-1559. The update will now occur on 8/4/21 at block 12,965,000, between 13:00 UTC and 17:00 UTC.
+
+For the record, they did not indicate or reference an actual release date for the NFT, but they did acknowledge that they want to get it right and they are not taking any shortcuts. So we hold-fast! It'll be worth it!
+
+[![r/Superstonk - An explanation of 'launchDate' 7/14 - NFT - EIP1559](https://preview.redd.it/40ifzxp00aa71.png?width=591&format=png&auto=webp&s=1c07ad34c18c394d28e317761151bf682b65eb88)](https://preview.redd.it/40ifzxp00aa71.png?width=591&format=png&auto=webp&s=1c07ad34c18c394d28e317761151bf682b65eb88)
+
+Ethereum is set to go through a lot of changes in the future, first with the London hardfork introducing EIP-1559.
+
+EIP-1559 is an Ethereum Improvement Proposal that, along with four other EIPs, will signal the start of Ethereum's 'Triple Halvening' event.
+
+[![r/Superstonk - An explanation of 'launchDate' 7/14 - NFT - EIP1559](https://preview.redd.it/jf99luysp9a71.png?width=598&format=png&auto=webp&s=edb0d225f8ed1869dcaa101bd99ef4353db668ab)](https://preview.redd.it/jf99luysp9a71.png?width=598&format=png&auto=webp&s=edb0d225f8ed1869dcaa101bd99ef4353db668ab)
+
+[![r/Superstonk - An explanation of 'launchDate' 7/14 - NFT - EIP1559](https://preview.redd.it/naajapyaw9a71.png?width=680&format=png&auto=webp&s=4aa295886b39a13d02b967b6011d79b4d3fb4a7e)](https://preview.redd.it/naajapyaw9a71.png?width=680&format=png&auto=webp&s=4aa295886b39a13d02b967b6011d79b4d3fb4a7e)
+
+This 'tip' is then given to the Ethereum miner, while the base fee is burned, removing it from circulation. In explaining the reason for this burn, [EIP's authors said](https://eips.ethereum.org/EIPS/eip-1559):
+
+> This ensures that only ETH can ever be used to pay for transactions on Ethereum, cementing the economic value of ETH within the Ethereum platform and reducing risks associated with miner extractable value (MEV). Additionally, this burn counterbalances Ethereum inflation while still giving the block reward and priority fee to miners. Finally, ensuring the miner of a block does not receive the base fee is important because it removes miner incentive to manipulate the fee in order to extract more fees from users.
+
+What Will EIP-1559 Do For Ethereum Miners?
+
+A collection of Ethereum miners and mining pools have voiced their opposition to EIP-1559. This has been collated in the [#STOPEIP1559 petition](https://stopeip1559.org/), led by Flexpool.
+
+Explaining their opposition, the petition states: "[Burning transaction fees] dramatically reduces miners' earnings, people who invested their savings into supporting the Ethereum network."
+
+Advertisement
+
+Given EIP-1559 is yet to launch onto the mainnet, the reward changes for miners are currently only predictions, with the full impact unknown.
+
+Of course, no matter the miners animosity to EIP-1559, this is a smaller change in comparison to the impact Ethereum 2.0 will have. The Eth2 upgrade,[ slated for release in 2022](https://www.gfinityesports.com/cryptocurrency/ethereum-2-release-date-eth2-roadmap-phases-is-ethereum-2-new-coin-serenity/), will see a full shift to [Ethereum staking](https://www.gfinityesports.com/cryptocurrency/ethereum-staking-what-is-it-how-to-stake-Eth2-ethereum-2-staking-rewards/) via a Proof-of-Stake algorithm.
+
+Sources:
+
+[Ethereum EIP-1559: Release Date, Meaning, And What EIP-1559 Will Do For Mining ETH](https://www.gfinityesports.com/cryptocurrency/ethereum-eip-1559-release-date-meaning-fees-london-hardfork-effect-on-mining-eth/)
+
+[Ethereum price gears up for its upcoming 'Triple Halving'](https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/ethereum-price-gears-up-for-its-upcoming-triple-halving-202107071339)
+
+[4 Common Misperceptions About Ethereum's EIP 1559 Upgrade](https://www.coindesk.com/4-myths-about-ethereum-eip-1559)
+
+🦍Other community posts pertaining to this subject. 🧠 Together We Are Stronger! 🚀
+
+Post about 1st tweet: <https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/oh5jjc/gamestop_nft_launch_date/>
+
+Post about 2nd clarifying tweet: <https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/oh60ea/gme_nft_developler_clarifies_that_there_is_no_set/>
+
+Post with both tweets and more discussion: <https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/oh613h/finestonematt_on_twitter_about_the_supposed/>
+
+TL;DR: Gamestop Engineers verify that the launch date was referencing the now rescheduled upgrade to the Ethereum network to EIP1559.

Crypto/NFT/Deep-Dive-into-GameStops-NFT-Website-by-schismsaints/2021-07-06-Deep-Dive-into-GameStops-NFT--Website.md

@@ -0,0 +1,144 @@
+A Deep Dive into nft.gamestop.com
+=================================
+
+| Author       | Source       | 
+| :-------------: |:-------------:|
+|  [u/schismsaints](https://www.reddit.com/user/schismsaints/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/of20ou/a_deep_dive_into_nftgamestopcom/) | 
+
+---
+
+[DD 👨‍🔬](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22DD%20%F0%9F%91%A8%E2%80%8D%F0%9F%94%AC%22&restrict_sr=1)
+
+To start, PLEASE take a look at the graphic as it shows the relationships between the GME tokens a lot more clearly than I've seen anywhere else so far - [GitHub - schismsaints/GME_NFT](https://github.com/schismsaints/GME_NFT)
+
+Like many, I was intrigued when I heard about GameStop dabbling in NFT - first, through the [job postings](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/gamestop-hiring-blockchain-analyst-specializing-075700175.html), then with [nft.gamestop.com](https://nft.gamestop.com/). I did a [brief dive into some of the smart contract details](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nkxrhe/umm_guys_i_think_i_just_found_something/gzgpytb/?context=3) back when it initially came out but recently have gone much further down the rabbit hole.
+
+I'll summarize some of the juicier bits and provide some speculation as to what it could mean as well as some resources to familiarize yourself with some of the details of blockchain, smart contracts, and tokens, but I have put together a [larger graphic](https://github.com/schismsaints/GME_NFT) in PNG/PDF/SVG formats visualizing some of the connections a little better (fair warning, I'm an engineer not an artist). I recommend loading it in a full web browser on as large of a monitor as possible. You'll understand why when you see it.
+
+First, a few key terms/concepts.
+
+Blockchain: In very simplistic terms, think of the blockchain as a ledger/record keeping system where each 'block' is a record and linked to the previous and next blocks in a chain. The process of adding a new 'block' involves computing and verifying prior information in the chain to ensure that nothing has been tampered with and that the full history of the chain is intact.
+
+[Blockchain Definition: What You Need to Know (investopedia.com)](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/b/blockchain.asp)
+
+Fungible: "being something (such as money or a commodity) of such a nature that one part or quantity may be replaced by another equal part or quantity in paying a debt or settling an account " (src: dictionary.com)
+
+Token: This is probably the part most people understand, though there are some nuances. There are two types of tokens and a number of differing implementation standards.
+
+-   Fungible Token - ERC-20: A token that is one of a pool of identical tokens. They can be split, transferred, or exchanged and are commonly used as currencies. Most established mainstream or alt- coins fall into this category.
+
+    -   [Cryptocurrency Definition (investopedia.com)](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/cryptocurrency.asp)
+
+-   Non-Fungible Token (NFT) - ERC-721/ERC-1155: A non-fungible token is a unique entity on the blockchain. There are no others exactly like it, and it has its own record of ownership, attributes/metadata, and cannot be substituted for another token identically. [CryptoKitties](https://www.cryptokitties.co/) is one of the most popular examples as they basically pioneered the ERC-721 standard. NFT artwork is another recently popularized example of this.
+
+    -   [Non-Fungible Token Definition: Understanding NFTs (investopedia.com)](https://www.investopedia.com/non-fungible-tokens-nft-5115211)
+
+[![r/Superstonk - A Deep Dive into nft.gamestop.com](https://preview.redd.it/hj74bjb47n971.png?width=300&format=png&auto=webp&s=b8fcbbce01a45c57fc93680483f9519a470ef057)](https://preview.redd.it/hj74bjb47n971.png?width=300&format=png&auto=webp&s=b8fcbbce01a45c57fc93680483f9519a470ef057)
+
+Non-Fungible Kitties!
+
+Smart Contract: A smart contract is a way to automate 'stuff'. That 'stuff' can be any number of tasks but some of the most common ones include creating (minting) or destroying (burning) tokens from an available pool. This can be fungible or non-fungible tokens (or, in the case of ERC-1155, both/either).
+
+[Smart Contracts Definition (investopedia.com)](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/smart-contracts.asp)
+
+The GME NFT story started in earnest with GameOn Anon, the smart contract address posted at [nft.gamestop.com](https://nft.gamestop.com/)
+
+[![r/Superstonk - A Deep Dive into nft.gamestop.com](https://preview.redd.it/x352qjj57n971.png?width=268&format=png&auto=webp&s=2c0d1ab1a3a208cd3b86a9dc799603a52463edd0)](https://preview.redd.it/x352qjj57n971.png?width=268&format=png&auto=webp&s=2c0d1ab1a3a208cd3b86a9dc799603a52463edd0)
+
+Power to the Players
+
+[0x13374200c29C757FDCc72F15Da98fb94f286d71e](https://etherscan.io/address/0x13374200c29C757FDCc72F15Da98fb94f286d71e)
+
+There are a lot of interesting threads from the smart contract, the most well known of which is the "launchDate" variable which equals 04:20 PDT 7/14/21 (come on, that can't *not* be intentional).
+
+[![r/Superstonk - A Deep Dive into nft.gamestop.com](https://preview.redd.it/bja10vi67n971.png?width=633&format=png&auto=webp&s=a2cb5526b08222b15f4cfb9b8284c5faac57585d)](https://preview.redd.it/bja10vi67n971.png?width=633&format=png&auto=webp&s=a2cb5526b08222b15f4cfb9b8284c5faac57585d)
+
+The [owner](https://etherscan.io/address/0x10b16eede03cf73cbf44e4bfffa3e6bff36f1fad) of the smart contract is also interesting.
+
+It owns the only GME ERC-721 token, 420.69 of the GME ERC-20 token, an E t h e r e u m Name Service record ([gamestopnft](https://etherscan.io/token/0x57f1887a8bf19b14fc0df6fd9b2acc9af147ea85?a=0x10b16eede03cf73cbf44e4bfffa3e6bff36f1fad#inventory)), and the 1337 [email signature](https://etherscan.io/token/0xc9ff785a33f2000652d0336e476a06ccd909317a?a=0x10b16eede03cf73cbf44e4bfffa3e6bff36f1fad#inventory) prefix used for several blockchain constructs.
+
+It also received 0.00001337 E t h e r on 5/25/21 from andrwyng (wut doing Andrew Yang??)
+
+Edit: Not actually Yang - <https://mobile.twitter.com/andrwyng?lang=en> - thanks [/u/No-Information-6100](https://www.reddit.com/u/No-Information-6100/)
+
+[![r/Superstonk - A Deep Dive into nft.gamestop.com](https://preview.redd.it/hprlbkr77n971.png?width=759&format=png&auto=webp&s=efef7ea335484ab1cef7f0e86fce04a2602f48f3)](https://preview.redd.it/hprlbkr77n971.png?width=759&format=png&auto=webp&s=efef7ea335484ab1cef7f0e86fce04a2602f48f3)
+
+False alarm, but had me very intrigued when I saw it initially.
+
+There are three GameStop specific tokens they appear to be working with, along with a number (>20) altcoins and other tokens.
+
+-   [GME Coin (ERC-20)](https://etherscan.io/token/0xd4596454a0e145842d1319d6921399e8e1622ad7) - Qty 12,000,000
+
+    -   Possible online store/digital currency? Would be interesting if it functioned similar to a [stablecoin](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/stablecoin.asp) pinned to the dollar
+
+-   [GameStop (ERC-20)](https://etherscan.io/token/0x5b7d043ecb3a694069cc01e763159ea1bde0541d) - Qty 69,420,000
+
+    -   They moved a large amount of this (>50%) to [Uniswap](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Uniswap) which in layman's terms can be considered as kind of an escrow/holding/forex account but in the crypto realm. Quite a few have been distributed from here to over 60 different destination addresses.
+
+    -   Yahoo! Finance lists the 'Implied Shares Outstanding' for GME as 69.38M, which is preeeeeetty close to the 69.42M tokens minted here. Could this be used as a shareholder dividend, potentially exchangeable between GameStop and GME Coin/USD?
+
+[![r/Superstonk - A Deep Dive into nft.gamestop.com](https://preview.redd.it/qm9w71ba7n971.png?width=336&format=png&auto=webp&s=8d3b8613f980d06adf1f2a7eca4bcfe792081704)](https://preview.redd.it/qm9w71ba7n971.png?width=336&format=png&auto=webp&s=8d3b8613f980d06adf1f2a7eca4bcfe792081704)
+
+[![r/Superstonk - A Deep Dive into nft.gamestop.com](https://preview.redd.it/0jexo0qa7n971.png?width=1334&format=png&auto=webp&s=6f5ab609573617f84a25e54a5df67ff3a7a295cd)](https://preview.redd.it/0jexo0qa7n971.png?width=1334&format=png&auto=webp&s=6f5ab609573617f84a25e54a5df67ff3a7a295cd)
+
+[![r/Superstonk - A Deep Dive into nft.gamestop.com](https://preview.redd.it/yppy9h3b7n971.png?width=1347&format=png&auto=webp&s=fdeece7225eafafb264cfc3a3beb0e0e458a0573)](https://preview.redd.it/yppy9h3b7n971.png?width=1347&format=png&auto=webp&s=fdeece7225eafafb264cfc3a3beb0e0e458a0573)
+
+-   [Gamestop (ERC-721)](https://etherscan.io/address/0x13374200c29C757FDCc72F15Da98fb94f286d71e) - Qty 1
+
+    -   There is only one of these in existence at this point with no clear use for it yet, but there are some interesting possibilities I've considered such as blockchain-based share tracking (i.e. each NFT would have a 'share # X' value on it) or as a shareholder ID token ('shareholder # X'). This one has the least clear forward looking use case at this point for me.
+
+Possible Business Uses
+
+-   In-store currency - GME Coin can be used as an in-store currency/reward system
+
+-   Crypto swap/exchange - Partner with an established cryptocurrency company to facilitate listing and conversion/exchange between stablecoins such as USDC or miscellaneous established coins or altcoins, and GME specific tokens. Use a GME app to manage a crypto wallet and exchange between various tokens/coins/currencies.
+
+-   NFT Collectibles - i.e. CryptoKitties, Gods Unchained, etc. Facilitate in-person trading (either in-store or via app to app trading) of digital items and collectibles between platforms.
+
+-   Digital game licensing - revolutionize DRM by hosting a record of your game license on the blockchain
+
+-   In-game item transfer/entitlement - Imagine if there was a way to trade/sell your CounterStrike skins in-person for cash, or exchange a cool knife skin for a new CryptoKitty
+
+Possible Shareholder Uses
+
+-   Shareholder record keeping - have a token proving your status as a shareholder
+
+-   Share/securities record keeping - similar, but for shares. Kind of a stretch but could be a proof of concept for blockchain based trading
+
+-   Crypto Dividend - Provide GameStop (ERC-20) tokens, even fractional ones, as a shareholder dividend. Allow conversion to USD or GMECoin/USD to cash out. Provide a way to purchase or 'auction' GameStop tokens and you now have a shareholder perk with monetary value that could appreciate over time.
+
+Here's the PDF of the chart/diagram I put together, the github link also has PNG and SVG versions of the image.
+
+[GME_NFT/GME_NFT.pdf at main - schismsaints/GME_NFT - GitHub](https://github.com/schismsaints/GME_NFT/blob/main/GME_NFT.pdf)
+
+TL:DR; GME doing crypto stuff. Lots of crypto stuff happening especially in the last week. Crypto stuff has lots of options, most of which will print money.
+
+[![r/Superstonk - A Deep Dive into nft.gamestop.com](https://preview.redd.it/m98p6jtc7n971.png?width=492&format=png&auto=webp&s=28d229a20045e33ea3b43ab8b8557830a0970a25)](https://preview.redd.it/m98p6jtc7n971.png?width=492&format=png&auto=webp&s=28d229a20045e33ea3b43ab8b8557830a0970a25)
+
+I like money
+
+Edit: to answer a good point brought up by [/u/haydonny1](https://www.reddit.com/u/haydonny1/) in the previous thread before I screwed it up with this edit :( - the alt coins could be sent by any random source and aren't concrete proof of anything. I still maintain that the three GME tokens are legitimate and all have ties back to the original Smart Contract either one or two levels removed. I haven't investigated the altcoin sources enough to be able to say whether or not they're being worked on by GME at this point.
+
+0x13374200c29C757FDCc72F15Da98fb94f286d71e
+
+-   Is the address posted on [nft.gamestop.com](https://nft.gamestop.com/)
+
+-   Owns 69,420.69 GameStop ERC-20 tokens
+
+-   Owns 2,000,000 GME Coin ERC-20 tokens
+
+0x10B16eEDe03cF73CbF44e4BFFFa3e6BFf36F1Fad
+
+-   Is the Smart Contract address listed in the source code of the [nft.gamestop.com](https://nft.gamestop.com/) smart contract.
+
+-   Holds 1 Gamestop ERC-721 token
+
+-   Holds 420.69 GameStop ERC-20 tokens
+
+-   Holds gamestopnft.e t h and 1337 ERC-721 tokens
+
+Double Edit: I'm seeing a lot of debate about the ERC-20 GameStop token and whether it's related to a scam site (game-coin or something, I think it's been pulled down and I can't find an archive now). At this point after digging multiple levels deep, I'm seeing a lot of conflicting information in the transaction logs and Uniswap destinations and I can't definitively say whether it's a scam or legit. I'm working on updating the graphic and will include a disclaimer, though I do still want to keep it in the picture until we can definitively rule it in or out.
+
+Big thanks to [/u/HandyBananaMan](https://www.reddit.com/u/HandyBananaMan/), [/u/Peteszahh](https://www.reddit.com/u/Peteszahh/), [/u/EngineeringDude2017](https://www.reddit.com/u/EngineeringDude2017/) and others for their discussion and links to other resources. I have more work to do.
+
+I'd hope it should go without saying, but don't buy a GME token on something that's not a GME app :)

Crypto/NFT/Deep-Dive-into-GameStops-NFT-Website-by-schismsaints/2021-07-09-Deep-Dive-into-GameStops-NFT-Website-Part-II.md

@@ -0,0 +1,99 @@
+A Deep Dive into nft.gamestop.com - Part 2: Electric Boogaloo
+=============================================================
+
+| Author      | Source | 
+|  :----:     |    :----:   |        
+| [u/schismsaints](https://www.reddit.com/user/schismsaints/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/oh0zfe/a_deep_dive_into_nftgamestopcom_part_2_electric/) |
+
+---
+
+
+[DD 👨‍🔬](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22DD%20%F0%9F%91%A8%E2%80%8D%F0%9F%94%AC%22&restrict_sr=1)
+
+[![r/Superstonk - A Deep Dive into nft.gamestop.com - Part 2: Electric Boogaloo](https://preview.redd.it/lzsb9ky2h7a71.png?width=225&format=png&auto=webp&s=8d709e3952f111fa21f696a57a2c7a0104475412)](https://preview.redd.it/lzsb9ky2h7a71.png?width=225&format=png&auto=webp&s=8d709e3952f111fa21f696a57a2c7a0104475412)
+
+Hi, I'm Troy McClu...err, /u/schismsaints
+
+You might remember me from my reddit hits such as "Why does AutoMod hate everything I do?", or [my most recent post from a couple of days ago](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/of20ou/a_deep_dive_into_nftgamestopcom/).
+
+I wanted to update my previous DD with some recent findings, clearing up a few points as well as expanding on the research I've done thus far. As before, you can find the current DD image in multiple formats here at my GitHub repo - <https://github.com/schismsaints/GME_NFT>
+
+To start, if you aren't familiar with basic blockchain concepts, [my previous post](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/of20ou/a_deep_dive_into_nftgamestopcom/) and [this one](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/ofndb0/a_crypto_dive_with_the_jellyfish_10_things_about) from [/u/Dismal-Jellyfish](https://www.reddit.com/u/Dismal-Jellyfish/) (seriously, it's well worth a read) will help get you up to speed on the different token types, smart contracts, and other general blockchain concepts.
+
+An Update on GME Tokens
+
+-   [ERC-20 GameStop.finance scam token](https://etherscan.io/token/0x9eb6be354d88fd88795a04de899a57a77c545590) - Obvious scam is obvious, but finding this token gave me a link to be able to more conclusively debunk the 69,420,000 ERC-20 token
+
+[![r/Superstonk - A Deep Dive into nft.gamestop.com - Part 2: Electric Boogaloo](https://preview.redd.it/tcf7cmqnr7a71.png?width=256&format=png&auto=webp&s=c4e2a7928d64cbbfc523ab59b7ade084dba3eef4)](https://preview.redd.it/tcf7cmqnr7a71.png?width=256&format=png&auto=webp&s=c4e2a7928d64cbbfc523ab59b7ade084dba3eef4)
+
+[![r/Superstonk - A Deep Dive into nft.gamestop.com - Part 2: Electric Boogaloo](https://preview.redd.it/ami03a1ur7a71.png?width=249&format=png&auto=webp&s=72c594892dfb607b865f03f9ef8f28755837fe9d)](https://preview.redd.it/ami03a1ur7a71.png?width=249&format=png&auto=webp&s=72c594892dfb607b865f03f9ef8f28755837fe9d)
+
+"The missing link"
+
+-   [ERC-20 GME GameStop Token](https://etherscan.io/token/0x5b7d043ecb3a694069cc01e763159ea1bde0541d) - Thanks to several of the commenters on my last post(s), I went through a deeper dive into the ERC-20 GME ('fake 1337420' address) token and agree that it is likely a scam.
+
+    -   The two most solid pieces of evidence identifying the scam are:
+
+        -   [0xfoobar directly disputing its validity](https://twitter.com/0xfoobar/status/1409740353738096641?s=21)
+
+        -   [More than one address holding the confirmed scam token as well as this one](https://etherscan.io/tokenholdings?a=0xfb5484a510c48c307fd0253ee4d0a0866950f9a3)
+
+    -   [There is one address](https://etherscan.io/address/0x7f8c1877ed0da352f78be4fe4cda58bb804a30df) which has ties to some potentially relevant blockchain companies (Cudo primarily) that had me doubting early on whether it was a scam, but on further research I've found a lot of links to Nigeria, Dubai, etc which, while not red flags in and of themselves, certainly don't line up with GameStop corporate hiring their own domestic blockchain team.
+
+[![r/Superstonk - A Deep Dive into nft.gamestop.com - Part 2: Electric Boogaloo](https://preview.redd.it/1wimkjrp48a71.png?width=738&format=png&auto=webp&s=313c9516cfef292f5a4570e971a292ddce3810f7)](https://preview.redd.it/1wimkjrp48a71.png?width=738&format=png&auto=webp&s=313c9516cfef292f5a4570e971a292ddce3810f7)
+
+Largest single GME ERC-20 Token holder address
+
+-   [ERC-20 GME Coin Token](https://etherscan.io/token/0xd4596454a0e145842d1319d6921399e8e1622ad7) - I have identified [an external account](https://etherscan.io/address/0x503828976d22510aad0201ac7ec88293211d23da) involved in funding the GME Coin address, but the trail went cold after that. I can't confirm or deny that it is legitimate at this point; in either event, whoever created it went through more effort to hide their tracks than the other tokens. It does not appear to have been sold/swapped anywhere as of yet.
+
+-   [ERC-721 GME GameStop Token ("The One and Only")](https://etherscan.io/token/0x13374200c29C757FDCc72F15Da98fb94f286d71e) - I suspect this will be the only one of its kind minted, either as a teaser or POC token for further NFT work.
+
+    -   One interesting possibility came to mind that - while not a crypto dividend per-se - could still have some interesting applications to securities exchanges or implications for the MOASS. Caution: Speculation/theorycrafting inbound
+
+        -   Consider the scenario involved with shareholder voting, where each shareholder receives a control number on each brokerage where they hold shares. Each control number is associated with the number of shares held at a point in time snapshot.
+
+        -   With ERC-721 or ERC-1155, a unique NFT could be minted for each shareholder/control number. The number of shares associated with each NFT could either be held in an external DB or as metadata (a field on the token itself).
+
+        -   This would create a public record of the number of shares held by individual shareholders at a point in time and could be updated on an annual basis (or more frequently if desired) in line with shareholder voting standards.
+
+        -   This also avoids the 'crypto dividend' hangups associated with Overstock as there isn't any money involved nor is there any way this method could prevent legitimate short selling - it's merely a public ledger of shares in circulation.
+
+    -   Alternatively, if they do a crypto coin dividend instead of a crypto stock dividend like Overstock, presumably they wouldn't place the same restrictions on selling which was the main point of contention in the Overstock case as I understand it. See below for some reading on Overstock.
+
+        -   <https://realmoney.thestreet.com/investing/stocks/overstock-is-paying-a-digital-dividend-and-it-gets-really-interesting-now-15037958>
+
+        -   <https://www.irmagazine.com/technology-social-media/how-overstock-used-blockchain-distribute-its-digital-dividend>
+
+[/u/No-Fox-1400](https://www.reddit.com/u/No-Fox-1400/) has a lot of the same thoughts I do in his posts here:
+
+-   <https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/ofiev4/the_man_with_the_plan/>
+
+    -   The timeline here including Overstock was an excellent read, but the part I really want to call out is this
+
+[![r/Superstonk - A Deep Dive into nft.gamestop.com - Part 2: Electric Boogaloo](https://preview.redd.it/olsculkf38a71.png?width=678&format=png&auto=webp&s=dbdaefd50c398f333896a14a204bafaa79334fd2)](https://preview.redd.it/olsculkf38a71.png?width=678&format=png&auto=webp&s=dbdaefd50c398f333896a14a204bafaa79334fd2)
+
+This is in line with my thoughts on timing - NFT platform launch on 7/14, announcement of dividend/crypto play on 7/14, and record date for a crypto based dividend on 7/24
+
+-   And here: <https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/ocvqlp/the_rules_dont_matter/>
+
+[![r/Superstonk - A Deep Dive into nft.gamestop.com - Part 2: Electric Boogaloo](https://preview.redd.it/89f8rnnw38a71.png?width=692&format=png&auto=webp&s=edc369dbfdb253baf183cdf837c9f725610a5a58)](https://preview.redd.it/89f8rnnw38a71.png?width=692&format=png&auto=webp&s=edc369dbfdb253baf183cdf837c9f725610a5a58)
+
+Recent Activity
+
+[/u/clawesome](https://www.reddit.com/u/clawesome/) and [/u/nuclear-falcon](https://www.reddit.com/u/nuclear-falcon/) noticed some recent activity on the original smart contract here
+
+<https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/ogjbcy/one_of_the_addresses_associated_with_the_gamestop/>
+
+I've drawn out these relations on the long format diagram, shown below
+
+[![r/Superstonk - A Deep Dive into nft.gamestop.com - Part 2: Electric Boogaloo](https://preview.redd.it/507nrqd258a71.png?width=530&format=png&auto=webp&s=26992c61f9346de0a90cc46bea65c17011018810)](https://preview.redd.it/507nrqd258a71.png?width=530&format=png&auto=webp&s=26992c61f9346de0a90cc46bea65c17011018810)
+
+Adding approving parties/other devs to the owner/approval list
+
+Huge credit to [/u/HandyBananaMan](https://www.reddit.com/u/HandyBananaMan/) for being almost as obsessed with the transaction logs as me and pointing me toward several bread crumbs along the way.
+
+TL:DR; Buy, Hold, Buckle Up. GME Blockchain team hard at work to bring us something mind blowing. I expect that *even if* a crypto dividend does not materialize, the [nft.gamestop.com](https://nft.gamestop.com/) project will be revolutionary and will function as a large catalyst for price movement regardless of a dividend play.
+
+[![r/Superstonk - A Deep Dive into nft.gamestop.com - Part 2: Electric Boogaloo](https://preview.redd.it/i09xoc4e78a71.png?width=4808&format=png&auto=webp&s=03f646219e746517c83364692af14e96180906d6)](https://preview.redd.it/i09xoc4e78a71.png?width=4808&format=png&auto=webp&s=03f646219e746517c83364692af14e96180906d6)
+
+This is the PNG format of the diagram here for convenience, but the current version is always on my GitHub repo.

DD/2021-04-27-Method-for-Hiding-FTDs-using-Useless-Puts.md

@@ -0,0 +1,59 @@
+A Method for Hiding FTD's That Uses the 1.09mil Useless Puts Discovered by /u/defj
+==================================================================================
+
+| Author       | Source       | 
+| :-------------: |:-------------:|
+|  [u/eastrod](https://www.reddit.com/user/eastrod/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/mzgtvx/a_method_for_hiding_ftds_that_uses_the_109mil/) | 
+
+---
+
+
+[DD 👨‍🔬](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22DD%20%F0%9F%91%A8%E2%80%8D%F0%9F%94%AC%22&restrict_sr=1)
+
+Apes and apettes, I'm jacked to the tits!!!
+
+TL;DR the economic terrorists have given us clear evidence in my opinion that they are resetting FTD's for at least 109 million phantom shares per cycle using cheap OTM puts
+
+I think I may have finally stumbled upon something that can help us in our efforts to discover just how deep a hole the short hedge funds are in.
+
+Huge credit to [/u/dejf2](https://www.reddit.com/u/dejf2/) (sorry I spelled your name wrong in the title) who posted this earlier today:
+
+<https://reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/mz7c7h/put_anomalies_pt1_were_127_million_synthetic/>
+
+He found 1.09 million useless cheap puts being traded and then closed before the end of the same trading day and it turned on a light bulb in my primate brain, taking me back to an article I read recently while digging into some other companies that were victims of naked short selling.
+
+<https://i.imgur.com/MSu2MOl.jpg>
+
+This is a screenshot highlighting a section taken from this letter to the SEC - it is a good read but the relevant portion is in the imgur link.
+
+Here is a link to the whole document if any other apes want to look into it:
+
+<https://www.sec.gov/comments/s7-30-08/s73008-17.pdf>
+
+The method for creating phantom (naked) shares goes as follows:
+
+-   Hedge fund (Melvin) buys a put (or 1.09 million puts)
+
+-   Market Maker (Shitadel) sells that put and is legally entitled to create and sell 100 phantom shares (or 109 million phantom shares) to hedge the put(s) they just wrote to remain neutral on the trade
+
+-   Hedge fund then sells that put back to the Market Maker except the Market Maker doesn't buy back the phantom shares leaving them net short on the stock and having pocketed the cash for the phantom shares that they did not need a borrow for
+
+Now this is where I snorted a couple of the fat crayons and had a brand new wrinkle form inside my otherwise smooth brain:
+
+The market maker could be using the method above (selling puts and then buying them back for the same price) as an excuse to create new phantom shares and then selling them to the short hedge funds - the ones trying to hide fuck tons of FTD's. This makes the short hedge funds look like they bought shares to clear their FTD's and then the hedge funds sell the share right back to the MM for the same price to create a neutral (net $0) trade while resetting the FTD countdown, essentially kicking the can down the road a little further and hiding 109 million shares of their short position from being reported as FTD's.
+
+Where would a Market Maker and a short hedge fund likely conduct this trade? In a fucking dark pool where they aren't competing with retail for the shares of course; a potential explaination for the insane amount of dark pool trading occuring lately!
+
+Let me be clear for the smoothest of brains - *in absolutely no way does this method help the short hedge funds reduce their short position.* They are not closing any shorts unless they keep some of the phantom shares in which case they are simply increasing the short position of the Market Maker aka Shitadel. This method only allows them to appear as though they have cleared their current FTD's while resetting the countdown. They then have to do this all over again the next time the FTD timer comes knocking.
+
+This could be another valuable tell for just how big the short position is! Other methods are being used to reset FTD's, I'm sure, but this method, combined with [/u/dejf2](https://www.reddit.com/u/dejf2/)'s find of just how many of these useless puts were traded gives me a raging clue. This makes me believe that from this method alone, the shorts have created and bought back phantom shares to reset AT LEAST 109 million phantom shares worth of FTD's.
+
+I hope this catches the eyes of some of some of the more wrinkly brains out there who can read terminal data and helps us get a clearer picture of just how fucked the hedgies truely are. As for me, I am more confident than ever before that the MOASS is inevitable. The tendieman commeth.
+
+HODL 💎🙌🦍🚀🌝☄️✨🛸
+
+Edit: tagging [/u/augrr](https://www.reddit.com/u/augrr/), [/u/HomeDepotHank69](https://www.reddit.com/u/HomeDepotHank69/), [/u/broccaaa](https://www.reddit.com/u/broccaaa/) our local FTD guru's to see if this new info can be used in conjunction with their findings on FTD numbers and reset methods that they have written such great DD about already.
+
+Edit 2: Clarified my conclusion after seeing some good questions in the comments
+
+*None of the above is financial advice, I just like the stock.*

DD/2021-05-28-GME-Ownership-Analysis.md

@@ -0,0 +1,132 @@
+GME Ownership Analysis 5/28- Hedgies R FuQ
+==========================================
+
+| Author       | Source       | 
+| :-------------: |:-------------:|
+|  [u/H3RB28](https://www.reddit.com/user/H3RB28/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nneevk/gme_ownership_analysis_528_hedgies_r_fuq/) | 
+
+---
+
+[DD 👨‍🔬](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22DD%20%F0%9F%91%A8%E2%80%8D%F0%9F%94%AC%22&restrict_sr=1)
+
+Hello fellow Apes,
+
+Obligatory Disclaimer: I am not a Financial Advisor, and this is not Financial Advice. Always do your own homework. That being said.. lets get started.
+
+TL,DR: Hedies R FuQ. I used data from FTSE Russell's own Database 'Mergent Online' to calculate the current ownership numbers for GME... and my TITS ARE JACKED.
+
+I found some very interesting ownership numbers for GME today. I am using Mergent Online as my data source, which is produced by FTSE Russell.. yes the same FTSE Russell that runs the Russell 2000 Index, which GME is *currently* a part of. I have access to Mergent through the university I am currently at while finishing my bachelors in Finance in a few months.
+
+Now before we get fully started on a simple ownership analysis.. I'm going to take us on a trip back to middle school math class and the dreaded topic of Algebra. Proportions and Cross Multiplying are a pretty simple topic and go something like this:
+
+[![r/Superstonk - GME Ownership Analysis 5/28- Hedgies R FuQ](https://preview.redd.it/mz00tbfuwy171.jpg?width=720&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=8b5901da8109b43c71e29b3807a9a5637e8fb716)](https://preview.redd.it/mz00tbfuwy171.jpg?width=720&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=8b5901da8109b43c71e29b3807a9a5637e8fb716)
+
+Proportions and Cross Multiplication
+
+For making Ownership calculations we need a base to go off of. Mergent Online (once again information reported by the index that GME is a part of) reports the ownership of GME at the following:
+
+[![r/Superstonk - GME Ownership Analysis 5/28- Hedgies R FuQ](https://preview.redd.it/6io407b6yy171.jpg?width=3634&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=ea4aaabfb669429f115e1adb79cfdfbb65828caa)](https://preview.redd.it/6io407b6yy171.jpg?width=3634&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=ea4aaabfb669429f115e1adb79cfdfbb65828caa)
+
+GME Ownership
+
+Mergent Online has GME Shares Outstanding as 69,936,000. We need to keep in mind that this is a number reported as of 1/30/2021. Since then, GME has made a secondary offering of 3,500,000 shares. This gives us an Issuer-Stated Total Shares Outstanding of 73,436,000 or 73.436 Million shares.
+
+Now that we know how many shares there are *supposed* to be, lets check out the Insider Ownership.
+
+[![r/Superstonk - GME Ownership Analysis 5/28- Hedgies R FuQ](https://preview.redd.it/9haw4oug0z171.jpg?width=3622&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=14a97865a44e6a912bf5246a906f1219fde92345)](https://preview.redd.it/9haw4oug0z171.jpg?width=3622&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=14a97865a44e6a912bf5246a906f1219fde92345)
+
+GME Insider Ownership
+
+We can see that the Insider Ownership is broken into two distinct categories: Direct and Indirect Ownership. Direct Ownership is when the shares are listed *directly* in your name, and not say.. in shelter company like RC Ventures. We will do two different calculations in order to display the situation correctly.
+
+Mergent lists the Direct Ownership at 8,057,864 shares totaling 11.52% ownership pie (we all like pies). This leaves 88.48% left over.. *but how many shares is that wrinkly brained ape?* Lets put our trusty friend Algebra to the test.
+
+(11.52/8,057,864) = (88.46/X)
+
+11.52X=712,798,649.44 .. now to find X we divide each side by 11.52.
+
+X=61,874,882.76
+
+Now to check our math we add the 88.46% to the 11.52% to get a total ownership number.
+
+Previously stated ownership: 69,936,000
+
+8,057,864 + 61,874,882.76= 69,932,746.76
+
+To me.. being around 4,000 shares within the "Stated Shares Outstanding" checks out enough to me. To calculate the Free Float I added in the extra 3.5 million shares that were a part of the secondary offering (total shares outstanding 73,436,000)
+
+This would put GME at a Free Float of 65,378,136 shares.
+
+BUT APE NO INCLUDE TENDIE MASTER!! I know, we are getting there.
+
+*RC Ventures WAS NOT listed on the "Direct Ownership" list. The Indirect Ownership is stated at 15,760,670 shares.
+
+Adding the two 'Insider Ownerships' together gives us the following:
+
+8,057,864 + 15,760,670 = 23,818,534 for insider ownership
+
+This new number would give us a Free Float of 49,617,466 or 49 Million shares.
+
+*Up until this point this is all stuff that we have basically already known.. its about to get a little more spicy.* Next we will cover the Institutional Ownership side. Now the Institutional numbers have always been wacky for GME, but I believe these next calculations provide insight into just how big of a hole hedgies have dug themselves.
+
+GME Institutional Ownership- As Stated by Mergent FTSE Russell:
+
+[![r/Superstonk - GME Ownership Analysis 5/28- Hedgies R FuQ](https://preview.redd.it/z3kg7s9q5z171.jpg?width=3647&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=dcd3b4b6e56200b41888ca0102fd80528de62b8e)](https://preview.redd.it/z3kg7s9q5z171.jpg?width=3647&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=dcd3b4b6e56200b41888ca0102fd80528de62b8e)
+
+Hedgies R FuQ
+
+Two things IMMEDIATELY stand out to me: #1 Institutions own 56,158,356 shares.... AT 28.87% ownership.. WHAT?!? This statistic is what is *REPORTED* to the index, these numbers definitely could be fudged.. but most likely to the downside and not the upside.
+
+*So smart Ape.. if Institutions own 28.87% of GME with 56M shares.. how many shares does everyone else (aka Insiders and Retail) own at 71.13%?* Once again, our friend Algebra comes into play.
+
+(28.87/56,158,356) = (71.13/X)
+
+28.87X = 3,994,543,862.28 (now we divide each side by 28.87)
+
+X= 138,363,140.36 or 138.36M shares.. GO APES!
+
+If we then subtract out the higher Insider Ownership number (Direct + Indirect) this gives us a *Retail Control* of 114,544,606.36 shares or 114 MILLION SHARES.
+
+*What the Fuq did hedgies get themselves into?!?*
+
+Now according to the "Institutional Ownership" numbers I wanted to see around about how many Naked Shorts the firms had rehypothecated. To get the Total Shares Outstanding we would then add Institutional Ownership with Retail and Insider Ownership stats:
+
+56,158,356 + 138,363,140 = 194,521,496 shares.. 194 million fuqing shares.
+
+So with the institutional numbers and the Issuer stated numbers I came to the conclusion that:
+
+194,521,496 - 73,436,000 = 121,085,496 or 121 MILLION SHARES NAKED
+
+What did Kenny get himself into.. well covering 121 MILLION shares he can't get his hands on because 114 MILLION are in the hands of Apes.
+
+*Please keep in mind these are the reported numbers.. they could truly be MUCH higher.*
+
+I am always open to criticisms and questions/discussion.
+
+Be Excellent and Rock on Fellow Apes.
+
+- H3RB
+
+Edit: Here is the screen shot from above with the dates highlighted for the base calculations:
+
+[![r/Superstonk - GME Ownership Analysis 5/28- Hedgies R FuQ](https://preview.redd.it/tr50evybjz171.jpg?width=3354&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=8e1f8f284ff23268916cabf08369388a8b1947bd)](https://preview.redd.it/tr50evybjz171.jpg?width=3354&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=8e1f8f284ff23268916cabf08369388a8b1947bd)
+
+Edit 2: Full Screen Shots of Institutional Ownership Stats:
+
+[![r/Superstonk - GME Ownership Analysis 5/28- Hedgies R FuQ](https://preview.redd.it/nwicrfepoz171.png?width=3693&format=png&auto=webp&s=473fcf5d17515aa04e6c6cc8150696426c04bba5)](https://preview.redd.it/nwicrfepoz171.png?width=3693&format=png&auto=webp&s=473fcf5d17515aa04e6c6cc8150696426c04bba5)
+
+Institutional Ownership 1
+
+[![r/Superstonk - GME Ownership Analysis 5/28- Hedgies R FuQ](https://preview.redd.it/dia9iacsoz171.png?width=3644&format=png&auto=webp&s=364688f6593f56bf6726ec2a440c2cc0b41877f5)](https://preview.redd.it/dia9iacsoz171.png?width=3644&format=png&auto=webp&s=364688f6593f56bf6726ec2a440c2cc0b41877f5)
+
+Institutional Ownership 2
+
+Edit 3: Direct vs. Indirect Insider Ownership RC Listed as Indirect
+
+[![r/Superstonk - GME Ownership Analysis 5/28- Hedgies R FuQ](https://preview.redd.it/oz019rwsxz171.jpg?width=3668&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=861b89415e9b82028514b010ad6e0be7189705e1)](https://preview.redd.it/oz019rwsxz171.jpg?width=3668&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=861b89415e9b82028514b010ad6e0be7189705e1)
+
+RC Listed as Indirect
+
+EDIT 4 (5/29 afternoon): I am doing a more comprehensive review of ownership comparing the numbers reported by Mergent and FTSE Russell to those of: GameStop Proxy, Yahoo Finance Premium, FinteliO, Whale Wisdom, Koyfin, Fidelity Research, Nasdaq, CNNMoney, and MarketBeat (I think I named them all.. may be more I'll update as needed). I am trying to match numbers to see if I can find any discrepancies in data reported.
+
+I have also contacted Mergent & FTSE Russell to try and see if I can get any information on *how* they source their information. On their website it states they have a dedicated data team that updates the data live daily from multiple market sources. I am not sure how true this is, but in the data columns it did say "as of 5/28/21". I will updated on any information about data sources that I receive.

DD/2021-06-13-Learn-From-the-Past-When-They-Did-Not-Care-to-Hide.md

@@ -0,0 +1,130 @@
+Learn from the past, when they didn't care to hide.
+==================================================
+
+| Author       | Source       | 
+| :-------------: |:-------------:|
+|  [u/JustBeingPunny](https://www.reddit.com/user/JustBeingPunny/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nyxs1f/learn_from_the_past_when_they_didnt_care_to_hide/) | 
+
+---
+
+[DD 👨‍🔬](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22DD%20%F0%9F%91%A8%E2%80%8D%F0%9F%94%AC%22&restrict_sr=1)
+
+Have you heard of Max-D? No, nor had I. I searched for 'naked short selling' through EDGAR (SEC's public database' and amongst all of the filings, I stumbled upon their wonderful little company.
+
+What makes them so special? Why even bother with a post? Well, they were subjected to manipulative stock trading that was driving their share price into the ground, much like the attempt on GameStop. However, like overstock, this company fought back hard. The went public to expose the naked short selling with figures and number to prove just how bad it was.
+
+Rather than a long TL;DR at the end, I'll be posting recap summaries throughout. You should be able to follow the entire post reading these summaries... I hope. The whole thing is a good read, I promise!
+
+*As always, if any information or interpretation is incorrect, help me correct it! I'm happy to edit accordingly!*
+
+_______________________________________________________________________________
+
+Background --
+
+June 14, 2018 -- 19.09pm ET
+
+*Max Sound Corporation (OTC:MAXD) and its Shareholders are being continuously victimized by Manipulative Trading Practices and Abusive Naked Short Selling orchestrated by Knight/Virtu (NITE), Cantor Fitzgerald (CANT), Canaccord Genuity (CSTI),* *Citadel* *(CDEL) and eTrade/G1 (ETRF) for the past three years with the objective to systematically lower the MAXD share price by selling billions of counterfeit shares that generate enormous free money for the market makers who have no intention of ever covering a short position. In fact, they have paid bashers that spew lies and libel wherever legitimate shareholders congregate.*
+
+*Yesterday the Company reported that it had engaged a leading provider of Regulation SHO compliance monitoring, short sale trading statistics and market integrity surveillance related to substantial naked short selling of its stock.*
+
+*Max Sound has now registered complaints related to these activities with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and Financial Industry Regulatory Authority (FINRA).* *The Company encourages MAXD investors and shareholders who believe they have been harmed, to file complaints as well. Remember, the value is being stolen from your investment, only because well-organized criminals are able to operate with absolute power, unmonitored inside the industry that handles, manages, trades and ultimately steals the total value of your asset.*
+
+This is a direct statement. The gigantic titanium swingers these mofos have. I guess I'm not surprised Citadel are in there. Though things continue to get REALLY interesting...
+
+June 14, 2018 -- Earlier the same morning -- 08.49 ET
+
+*Max Sound Corporation has engaged a leading provider of Regulation SHO compliance monitoring, short sale trading statistics and market integrity surveillance related to substantial short selling of its stock. Regulation SHO requires bona-fide market-making activities to include making purchases and sales in roughly comparable amounts.*
+
+So you're being naked shorted right into the ground. You feel helpless and have nowhere to go. What do you do? You bring in the experts and that is exactly what they did.
+
+*The Securities and Exchange Commission has stated that bona-fide market-making DOES NOT include activity that is related to speculative selling strategies for investment purposes of the broker-dealer and is disproportionate to the usual market making patterns or practices of the broker-dealer in that security. Likewise, where a market maker posts continually at or near the best offer, but does not also post at or near the best bid, the market maker's activities do not qualify as bona-fide market making. Moreover, a market maker that continually executes short sales away from its posted quotes is not considered to be engaged in bona-fide market making*
+
+Ape talk -- The SEC has stated market-making can't be genuine if they're 'shorting away from its' posted quotes', missing bids from the buy side every now and then, whilst the sell side ALWAYS has something there, or diverts away from its' regular market making patterns. (Sound familiar?) *This is my interpretation. My knowledge on market making is little, so if anyone can add a better easy explanation, I'll be happy to add.*
+
+So let's take a break here and recap.
+
+MAXD are a company that were fully aware that they were being shorted (also naked) into the ground. They hired some experts in the field to take a look into the trading and market making activities for compliance. What they found was....
+
+_______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
+
+Did they comply?
+
+*MAXD market makers have been monitored daily for compliance with Reg SHO and Fair Market-Making Requirements.* *Here is a trading analysis of MAXD.*
+
+*BuyVol = real buyers at offer.*
+
+*SellVol = real sellers at bid.*
+
+*ShortVolume = short sale trade identifiers for both EXEMPT (market makers)*
+
+*NON-EXEMPT (everyone else) shorts sales.*
+
+*The short selling as a percentage of daily trading volume in MAXD by your firm is abnormally high; the market-making math related thereto does not reconcile and is not at all compliant with Federal Securities Laws***.**
+
+*As is common during these orchestrated short selling campaigns, bad actors with no real interest in MAXD's success, or any small public company for that matter,* *has consistently engaged in false accusations and libel on the Company's stock chat boards in attempts to scare and demoralize MAXD's legitimate shareholders**. It is noteworthy that as soon as Max Sound sent this report to the market makers perpetrating the naked short sales on the company, the bad actors disappeared at least for the time being..*
+
+Acknowledging the shills, reporting the shills and then telling the shorts that they know. I'm beginning to love these people more and more.
+
+Recap -- The experts took a peek behind the curtain and did the math on the market making activity. They concluded that there was absolutely no way that they could be complying with federal securities law. They also found shills in their message boards and compiled a report highlighting all of this. This forced the shorts to back off for a small while.
+
+__________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
+
+The data
+
+This is the thick of it. MAX-D just didn't publicly state all of this was happening. They posted clear numbers detailing how and WHO. *I'll continue to quote their statement and break it down further. Buckle up.*
+
+*We have analyzed the last year of daily short volume data and correlated it to recent market making activity in MAXD.* *In 27 of the past 31 trading days, 87% of the time, the combined selling and short selling in MAXD has far exceeded the amount of buying (See NetNet column below).* *Market makers, by definition, are required to PROVIDE LIQUIDITY not extract or remove liquidity**. The math provided below demonstrates that instead of matching orders, market makers, Knight/Virtu, Cantor Fitzgerald, Canaccord Genuity, Citadel, eTrade/G1 are heavily shorting MAXD stock BOTH on the offer and on the bid, which by definition means they have a "speculative short selling strategy" running on MAXD. They are carrying net short positions overnight and continuing to claim the market maker's exemption, which is in VIOLATION of the Fair Market Making Requirements of Regulation SHO.* *We are able to mathematically prove this because there is not enough BuyVol (buy volume) to match the amount of selling and short selling. The chart below identifies the top 5 market makers, in MAXD for May 2018 (highlighted below) accounting for 2,257,870,595 shares of trading, or 88.22% of total trading volume in May.*
+
+Ape talk/Recap -- There was lots and lots of short selling from many market makers. They continually claimed their exemption to naked short sell, which is a violation of regulation SHO. Better yet, they could mathematically prove it...
+
+*Total Volume* *Name*
+
+*(Last Month)*
+
+*643,662,180* *Knight/Virtu,*
+
+*154,447,100* *Cantor Fitzgerald,*
+
+*203,762,081* *Canaccord Genuity,*
+
+*769,731,954* *Citadel, - These fuckers yet again*
+
+*247,276,817* *Trade/G1*
+
+*Highlighting these Market Makers abusive activities in-concert with each other for just the one month of May, allows regulators, the SEC, FINRA, the U.S. Attorney as well as the media to easily identify the manipulative trading activity and counterfeiting of MAXD shares engaged in by their traders for the past year and well beyond. When overlaid for the entire year (back to June 1, 2017) the math is shocking. 8,117,878,650 total shares have been shorted representing in excess of 40% of MAXD's total trading volume and it demonstrates that these market makers have knowingly participated in manipulative trading practices and counterfeiting of MAXD shares.*
+
+We provide the following data in this report:
+
+DAILY TOTAL SHARES SHORTED (volume and price), which includes all shares shorted even by exempt institutions such as market makers.
+
+FAILURES TO DELIVER (naked shorts).
+
+MARKET MAKER SHARE VOLUME (exposing exactly how many shares are being traded and the name of the market making firm traded through).
+
+MARKET MAKER DATA (showing whether or not a fair market is being made in each trading day).
+
+CUMULATIVE TOTAL SHARES SHORTED data showing large short positions and the volume weighted average price that a short squeeze will start.
+
+[![r/Superstonk - Learn from the past, when they didn't care to hide.](https://preview.redd.it/xlb7iptlo1571.png?width=568&format=png&auto=webp&s=4f83254f4d02b5f4996ab05191a6937bc1cc1b73)](https://preview.redd.it/xlb7iptlo1571.png?width=568&format=png&auto=webp&s=4f83254f4d02b5f4996ab05191a6937bc1cc1b73)
+
+[![r/Superstonk - Learn from the past, when they didn't care to hide.](https://preview.redd.it/kdft08vmo1571.png?width=555&format=png&auto=webp&s=ec83f53d39b609f687ef86a37103320504121f3e)](https://preview.redd.it/kdft08vmo1571.png?width=555&format=png&auto=webp&s=ec83f53d39b609f687ef86a37103320504121f3e)
+
+Recap -- They proved mathematically that the game was rigged and that Kenny boy (Citadel) was the biggest culprit. The first image shows the potential squeeze value. The second image shows just how bad the market making activity was. Just look at that buy volume vs sell volume.
+
+________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
+
+The final comment
+
+*MAXD is making this report available to the investment world to create a substantial short squeeze opportunity with the goal to return to its shareholders the massive amount of equity stolen by unscrupulous market makers.*
+
+They openly advocated for people to invest to start a short squeeze. There was no hidden riddle. It was there in black and white.
+
+TL;DR -- MAX-D are a company that were being shorted into the ground. Market makers were using their liquidity exemptions to naked short, further driving the price. MAX-D brought in the experts and found the market making activity was fraudulent and in breach of Federal securities law, as it was mathematically impossible they were doing everything 'by the book'.
+
+_______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
+
+Bonus round -- Citadel and the inadvertent 'mini bomb'
+
+Let's look at the chart. Citadel were the biggest shorts for the company? Looks like Kenny had to cover some of them other shorts positions.
+
+[![r/Superstonk - Learn from the past, when they didn't care to hide.](https://preview.redd.it/b2sv9zxto1571.png?width=672&format=png&auto=webp&s=7e5bf6e1aecffc9b61ab9dcad35a16d87246a691)](https://preview.redd.it/b2sv9zxto1571.png?width=672&format=png&auto=webp&s=7e5bf6e1aecffc9b61ab9dcad35a16d87246a691)

DD/2021-06-16-T+35-is-the-One-True-Cycle.md

@@ -0,0 +1,252 @@
+T+35 is the one true "cycle" [Evidence to back my theory up plus a step-by-step guide on how to follow along at home]
+=====================================================================================================================
+
+| Author       | Source       | 
+| :-------------: |:-------------:|
+|  [u/dentisttft](https://www.reddit.com/user/dentisttft/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/o155a6/t35_is_the_one_true_cycle_evidence_to_back_my/) | 
+
+---
+
+[DD 👨‍🔬](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22DD%20%F0%9F%91%A8%E2%80%8D%F0%9F%94%AC%22&restrict_sr=1)
+
+*This post is for educational purposes only. Do your own research and make your own decisions before acting on them. Just because this information is correct now, doesn't mean it will be correct every other day. HFs have a lot of tricks. No one knows what will come next...*
+
+EDIT10 (6/21): It is more clear to me now that ETF FTD's do not behave the same as the GME FTDs that I use as examples. The ETF FTDs are a work in progress. The ETF FTDs should be weighted as well. If you find a pattern in the ETF FTDs, I'm open to hearing it!
+
+--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
+
+TL;DR:
+
+-   Every spike that is seen can be traced back to T+35.
+
+-   I show 1 min spikes to back this claim up
+
+-   I provide a guide on how to setup this data yourself.
+
+Preface
+
+Almost 2 weeks ago, I posted some DD about T+35.
+
+[T+21 is NOT actually a thing! [Counter DD]](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nsady3/t21_is_not_actually_a_thing_counter_dd/)
+
+I claim that T+35 is the only T+X that is important, and other T+X "cycles" are actually just from T+35. This concept goes against the general consensus, so as expected... I got mixed reviews. Since then I have seen a different T+X, T+Y, T+Z theory every day, but there is always a catch or some sort of guessing applied. Or the cycle is T+21 one month, but T+19 the other month. As you may imagine, this has gotten frustrating for me. There is no shade being thrown at other DD writers. I just want everyone to realize how simple this is so we can all be on the same page.
+
+My T+35 theory doesn't have guess work. It works every time and it's based on free data that anyone can get. In this post, I will show you how. (I know this is starting to sound like an infomercial, but stick with me)
+
+Where my T+35 theory comes from...
+
+Reg SHO Rule 204 (<https://www.law.cornell.edu/cfr/text/17/242.204>) states HFs need to cover their FTDs "before regular trading hours on the 35th day after the FTD date". My T+35 theory shows they wait until the last possible day to cover, so the 34th day after the FTD date (this is why our third column formula was "=A1 + 34"). If the 34th day lands on a weekend or holiday, bump it forward to the next business day.
+
+Reg SHO states that you cannot short a stock if you have FTDs open. Once the FTDs get covered on that day, GME's price will not return to that point.
+
+That's it. That's all you need.
+
+It's as simple as...
+
+1.  Get the FTD data
+
+2.  Count 34 calendar days (FTDs need to be covered BEFORE the 35th day)
+
+3.  Those FTDs will be bought all at once on that trading day.
+
+Oh, you want to see an example?
+
+Okay, sure.
+
+I have picked out days from April because the FTDs are large and the volume was small. It is very easy to pick them out.
+
+How about... April 21. 32,220 FTDs need to be covered. The day's volume was low, but there was a 1m volume spike at 12:23 EST of 39,000. GME's price never came back afterward.
+
+[![r/Superstonk - T+35 is the one true "cycle" [Evidence to back my theory up plus a step-by-step guide on how to follow along at home]](https://preview.redd.it/c82wf7csqm571.png?width=451&format=png&auto=webp&s=ca4a553ffb37e4eb7ef574f3bdd7efc21bbcd413)](https://preview.redd.it/c82wf7csqm571.png?width=451&format=png&auto=webp&s=ca4a553ffb37e4eb7ef574f3bdd7efc21bbcd413)
+
+[![r/Superstonk - T+35 is the one true "cycle" [Evidence to back my theory up plus a step-by-step guide on how to follow along at home]](https://preview.redd.it/stvi493tqm571.png?width=760&format=png&auto=webp&s=c63c88a3ef43b64a79c124bf49fc0aaff0057ec9)](https://preview.redd.it/stvi493tqm571.png?width=760&format=png&auto=webp&s=c63c88a3ef43b64a79c124bf49fc0aaff0057ec9)
+
+April 19. 140,554 FTDs need to be covered. GME was rising quite fast on it's own. Remember, they can't short a stock when they have FTDs that need to be covered. So at 10:25 EST, There was a big jump in volume up to 160k and then the price dropped for the rest of the day.
+
+[![r/Superstonk - T+35 is the one true "cycle" [Evidence to back my theory up plus a step-by-step guide on how to follow along at home]](https://preview.redd.it/lb5q8rbvqm571.png?width=449&format=png&auto=webp&s=6fa055c19c2cf90d9cd6c8bddd1c201c5d5d1543)](https://preview.redd.it/lb5q8rbvqm571.png?width=449&format=png&auto=webp&s=6fa055c19c2cf90d9cd6c8bddd1c201c5d5d1543)
+
+[![r/Superstonk - T+35 is the one true "cycle" [Evidence to back my theory up plus a step-by-step guide on how to follow along at home]](https://preview.redd.it/px47llyvqm571.png?width=805&format=png&auto=webp&s=e344df65f5219edef1d3f7708357a728c5793130)](https://preview.redd.it/px47llyvqm571.png?width=805&format=png&auto=webp&s=e344df65f5219edef1d3f7708357a728c5793130)
+
+You see? It's that easy!
+
+Meh... this seems like a coincidence
+
+Okay, fine... I'll keep going.
+
+April 16 - 46,344 FTDs
+
+[![r/Superstonk - T+35 is the one true "cycle" [Evidence to back my theory up plus a step-by-step guide on how to follow along at home]](https://preview.redd.it/cmrtpjd1rm571.png?width=449&format=png&auto=webp&s=feaf916cbd63dffe35c043ca34ffeebfb81ee19d)](https://preview.redd.it/cmrtpjd1rm571.png?width=449&format=png&auto=webp&s=feaf916cbd63dffe35c043ca34ffeebfb81ee19d)
+
+[![r/Superstonk - T+35 is the one true "cycle" [Evidence to back my theory up plus a step-by-step guide on how to follow along at home]](https://preview.redd.it/3f8jcft1rm571.png?width=805&format=png&auto=webp&s=89bad926ace29cb36dfb23cfed018e78e642e653)](https://preview.redd.it/3f8jcft1rm571.png?width=805&format=png&auto=webp&s=89bad926ace29cb36dfb23cfed018e78e642e653)
+
+April 15 - 155,658 FTDs
+
+[![r/Superstonk - T+35 is the one true "cycle" [Evidence to back my theory up plus a step-by-step guide on how to follow along at home]](https://preview.redd.it/n75at1i4rm571.png?width=448&format=png&auto=webp&s=5b314710aa16ba499713776eccf36306c5826688)](https://preview.redd.it/n75at1i4rm571.png?width=448&format=png&auto=webp&s=5b314710aa16ba499713776eccf36306c5826688)
+
+[![r/Superstonk - T+35 is the one true "cycle" [Evidence to back my theory up plus a step-by-step guide on how to follow along at home]](https://preview.redd.it/rjz3cpw4rm571.png?width=758&format=png&auto=webp&s=a027c39558f072760bb8c02bc2601580da764abc)](https://preview.redd.it/rjz3cpw4rm571.png?width=758&format=png&auto=webp&s=a027c39558f072760bb8c02bc2601580da764abc)
+
+April 1 - Two days needed to be covered this day because 4/4 was a weekend. At 1:25, there was an 83k volume spike followed by a couple 100k-150k volume candles.
+
+[![r/Superstonk - T+35 is the one true "cycle" [Evidence to back my theory up plus a step-by-step guide on how to follow along at home]](https://preview.redd.it/dtcgi377rm571.png?width=449&format=png&auto=webp&s=04879f53d128e51679420c3c9acd23be166d06dc)](https://preview.redd.it/dtcgi377rm571.png?width=449&format=png&auto=webp&s=04879f53d128e51679420c3c9acd23be166d06dc)
+
+[![r/Superstonk - T+35 is the one true "cycle" [Evidence to back my theory up plus a step-by-step guide on how to follow along at home]](https://preview.redd.it/hjktf658rm571.png?width=763&format=png&auto=webp&s=eb96ccede1210db6c24950eeb0f689db122b6f99)](https://preview.redd.it/hjktf658rm571.png?width=763&format=png&auto=webp&s=eb96ccede1210db6c24950eeb0f689db122b6f99)
+
+April 30 - 86,859 FTDs. This one got split between two minutes on my chart. The average 1m volume was between 30k-40k shares. And then there are two 70k-80k volume candles at 9:50-9:51 am.
+
+[![r/Superstonk - T+35 is the one true "cycle" [Evidence to back my theory up plus a step-by-step guide on how to follow along at home]](https://preview.redd.it/vezj8zkarm571.png?width=453&format=png&auto=webp&s=06957bcdbaeeaa47ba59f34382e1811182c2b07a)](https://preview.redd.it/vezj8zkarm571.png?width=453&format=png&auto=webp&s=06957bcdbaeeaa47ba59f34382e1811182c2b07a)
+
+[![r/Superstonk - T+35 is the one true "cycle" [Evidence to back my theory up plus a step-by-step guide on how to follow along at home]](https://preview.redd.it/fb1lqpyarm571.png?width=855&format=png&auto=webp&s=238276a529cc1e48c34e06e58e9bce7b3a817843)](https://preview.redd.it/fb1lqpyarm571.png?width=855&format=png&auto=webp&s=238276a529cc1e48c34e06e58e9bce7b3a817843)
+
+I can keep going. These are the easy ones to spot *just* in April.
+
+So what about ETF FTDs?
+
+Days with large ETF FTDs also see spikes like this. But it doesn't convert well enough to show. For instance, 1.9 million ETF FTDs might convert to a 120,000 share GME spike. If someone wants to continue this research and find a way to convert the ETF FTD count into GME shares, go ahead.
+
+Why do some days lead to large gains and some days drop immediately after the FTD cover?
+
+I wrote about that in my last DD:
+
+[SLD DD [A predictable monthly pinch on capital leading to GME gains]](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nz7mwl/sld_dd_a_predictable_monthly_pinch_on_capital/)
+
+But here's what you need to know if you can't read two DDs in a row:
+
+-   There is a period that starts on Wednesday before monthly options expiration and extends to 9 days after monthly options expiration where the 30 largest financial companies need to make large deposits to the NSCC.
+
+-   During those days, they have less money and need to be careful not to spend more or they will get liquidity called.
+
+-   Meaning T+35's with large FTD days that fall in the SLD period will increase GME's price a lot more than large FTD days that fall out of the SLD period. Once the price of GME rises within the SLD period, it does not come back down until 2 days before the end of SLD.
+
+I even mapped out the SLD periods:
+
+[![r/Superstonk - T+35 is the one true "cycle" [Evidence to back my theory up plus a step-by-step guide on how to follow along at home]](https://preview.redd.it/ys4ovwzurm571.png?width=1246&format=png&auto=webp&s=16a4fcd208abfca25a479f87f5f54fc590b2af06)](https://preview.redd.it/ys4ovwzurm571.png?width=1246&format=png&auto=webp&s=16a4fcd208abfca25a479f87f5f54fc590b2af06)
+
+March 5-10 is the biggest spike outside of SLD. Those can be associated with ETF FTDs.
+
+[![r/Superstonk - T+35 is the one true "cycle" [Evidence to back my theory up plus a step-by-step guide on how to follow along at home]](https://preview.redd.it/enpanyhxrm571.png?width=448&format=png&auto=webp&s=3c9b8bb8bb070fe3283ecdb7874e7e94eb283339)](https://preview.redd.it/enpanyhxrm571.png?width=448&format=png&auto=webp&s=3c9b8bb8bb070fe3283ecdb7874e7e94eb283339)
+
+How do I see this for myself?
+
+Download the FTD data from the SEC: <https://www.sec.gov/data/foiadocsfailsdatahtm> and pull out every line with GME and every line of the ETFs GME are in. But that's a lot of work. Luckily, a lovely ape by the name of [u/nequin](https://www.reddit.com/u/nequin/) made a website to do this all for you.
+
+Get the FTD data:
+
+1.  Go to <https://failedtodeliver.com/?symbols=GME>
+
+2.  Make a spreadsheet.
+
+    1.  Column A is the FTD date.
+
+    2.  Column B is "=A1+34" and fill down.
+
+    3.  Column C is the number of GME FTDs
+
+    4.  Column D is the number of ETF FTDs
+
+ETFs with GME
+
+<https://failedtodeliver.com/?symbols=GAMR,XRT,RETL,XSVM,VIOV,RWJ,VIOO,PSCD,VIOG,VTWV,IUSS,VCR,VTWO,SFYF,IWC,EWSC,SYLD,PRF,RALS,FNDX,FNDB,VBR,IJS,XJR,NUSC,SLYV,IJR,SPSM,SLY,FLQS,IJT,GSSC,SLYG,VXF,NVQ,IWN,ESML,VB,SAA,DMRS,BBSC,OMFS,FDIS,STSB,SSLY,IWM,SCHA,PBSM,UWM,VTHR,URTY,VTI,TILT,VLU,HDG,AVUS,MMTM,DSI,SPTM,IWV,SCHB,ITOT,DFAU>
+
+EDIT 7: I posted my dataset for the people who want to compare. <https://www.reddit.com/user/dentisttft/comments/o1k5s4/t35_dataset/>
+
+EDIT 9: There were some issues brought up in the data. But they shouldn't be issues. Trust the files or [failedtodeliver.com](https://failedtodeliver.com/), they are the same.
+
+~~EDIT 6: IT HAS BEEN BROUGHT TO MY ATTENTION THAT THE WEBSITE IS OFF BY ONE DAY STARTING IN APRIL. PROBABLY BECAUSE OF THE HOLIDAY. I HAVE TAGGED THE PERSON WHO CREATED IT. SO MAKE SURE YOU DOUBLE CHECK SOME DAYS WITH THE FILES UNTIL ITS FIXED.~~
+
+~~EDIT 8: APPARENTLY THE WEBSITE USES THE FILES, SO EDIT 6 IS NOT COMPLETELY CORRECT. THERE IS A DISCREPENCY BETWEEN THE FILES/FAILEDTODELIVER.COM AND THE SEC'S FTD GRAPH.~~ [~~https://sec.report/fails.php?tc=gme~~](https://sec.report/fails.php?tc=gme)
+
+~~THE FILES SKIP APRIL 21 (WHICH IN MY OPINION MEANS ZERO) AND HAVE APRIL 30, THE GRAPH WEBSITE HAS APRIL 21 AND SKIPS APRIL 30. SO I THINK THE GRAPH WEBSITE MIGHT BE INCORRECT.~~
+
+Important Notes:
+
+-   Column A is the settlement date when the share officially becomes an FTD.
+
+-   Column B is the last possible day to cover the FTD
+
+Your spreadsheet looks like this...
+
+[![r/Superstonk - T+35 is the one true "cycle" [Evidence to back my theory up plus a step-by-step guide on how to follow along at home]](https://preview.redd.it/ox473wz4sm571.png?width=451&format=png&auto=webp&s=0efc2bda56da1c16e3ab3ea4887db568cdbf43b8)](https://preview.redd.it/ox473wz4sm571.png?width=451&format=png&auto=webp&s=0efc2bda56da1c16e3ab3ea4887db568cdbf43b8)
+
+Now what?
+
+1.  Google search "what is today's date"
+
+2.  Find that date in column 2 (the +34 day)
+
+3.  Follow this flow chart.
+
+[![r/Superstonk - T+35 is the one true "cycle" [Evidence to back my theory up plus a step-by-step guide on how to follow along at home]](https://preview.redd.it/4ag11hd7sm571.png?width=292&format=png&auto=webp&s=7fc674526dbcd541c60490e9661581559fadade3)](https://preview.redd.it/4ag11hd7sm571.png?width=292&format=png&auto=webp&s=7fc674526dbcd541c60490e9661581559fadade3)
+
+In my experience, a "large number of FTDs" is 70,000+ for GME FTDs or 1-1.5 million FTDs for ETFs.
+
+Again, this is not guaranteed. This is just based on patterns I've seen. There are plenty of tricks that probably have not been shown. Don't do something stupid based on this data, its for education purposes only.
+
+Should my tits be jacked!?
+
+Here's the new data for this next week... Use your new knowledge from this post and you decide!
+
+[![r/Superstonk - T+35 is the one true "cycle" [Evidence to back my theory up plus a step-by-step guide on how to follow along at home]](https://preview.redd.it/6a5dvr1jxn571.png?width=597&format=png&auto=webp&s=cc76d854e680a88d218b11774b70e0b805276687)](https://preview.redd.it/6a5dvr1jxn571.png?width=597&format=png&auto=webp&s=cc76d854e680a88d218b11774b70e0b805276687)
+
+EDIT5: Fixed the hightlighted section. Accidentally had June 15th in there when it shouldn't be.
+
+FAQ
+
+New FTD data just came out yesterday. So what about June?
+
+The ETF FTDs are quite large for the next 5-7 trading days. Combine that with SLD starting on June 16 ~~17~~, things look good.
+
+EDIT5: Accidentally had the wrong date typed here and the wrong dates highlighted in the photo.
+
+Why do the last two days of SLD not behave the same as the other days?
+
+Not sure. My guess is that HFs have 2 days to pay a liquidity call. So there's no point in liquidity calling them when they are about to get their money back. It also usually is at the end of the week when option premiums get extremely high, less calls are bought, and gamma ramp slows down.
+
+How long does it take before GME/ETFs show up as FTDs?
+
+They become FTDs when the trade settles. So for GME FTDs, its T+2. For ETF's, its T+6. (shoutout to [u/karasuuchiha](https://www.reddit.com/u/karasuuchiha/) for pointing out the ETF settlement time to me)
+
+What causes GME FTDs?
+
+This is where the idea of "cycles" comes from. When FTDs fall in SLD and GME spikes, it creates a lot of ITM call options. When those call options are exercised on Friday, they become FTDs upon settling (T+2 settlement). *Note: Buying and selling option contracts settle in T+1, but exercising contracts is T+2*. This causes a lot of new FTDs that need to be covered in 34 more days. Thus creating an obsession with "cycles" and why other "T+X cycle" theories fall short. It's literally just ITM options from the last SLD + FTD spike price increase will create new FTDs on Tuesday (or Wednesday with a holiday).
+
+What causes ETF FTDs?
+
+SSR!!! Remember all those days when SSR didn't stop GME from going down? It's because GME is shorted through the ETFs causing ETF FTDs 6 days later when they settle. It did something, it's just not immediately seen.
+
+I'm still not buying it. There are definitely spikes every 21 days!
+
+Well, I tried. Erase what you know about T+21 cycles and try to understand and apply this post. And maybe you will eventually see what I see.
+
+What about Net Capital?
+
+I don't know. I avoid FINRA things because in the end... it's just FINRA. This is based off of NSCC rules. I've found enough correlation in only using FTDs and SLD that I didn't think I needed to look into Net Capital too much. They could definitely both be happening, but in the end, I don't think it's too important. I'm open to someone changing my mind on this if you can show me the data (not the rules) to support that Net Capital has more correlation than SLD.
+
+What else should I know?
+
+Rule 204 says the 35 day exception applies when you have a long position on the stock. If they're shorting, how do they get to say they have a long position? I have a theory, but nothing concrete.
+
+TL;DR: The TL;DR is at the top of the post you sweet, tender, smooth-brained ape.
+
+Now that I have more eyes on my posts, I'm hoping this theory sticks better than the first time. In my opinion, getting distracted on other types of cycles is diluting focus.
+
+pce~~
+
+[u/dentisttft](https://www.reddit.com/u/dentisttft/)
+
+----------------------------------------
+
+Shoutout to [u/wJFq6aE7-zv44wa__gHq](https://www.reddit.com/u/wJFq6aE7-zv44wa__gHq/) for letting me bounce ideas off of them!
+
+EDIT1-3: formatting fixes
+
+EDIT4: Added "Should my tits be jacked!?" section
+
+EDIT5: Fixed the dates on my new section. I rushed it and highlighted June 15 on accident.
+
+Bonus Round!
+
+I posted my SLD DD on June 13th at 6:23 PM EST. 6 hours later at 12:02, Elon Musk posted this on Twitter.
+
+[![r/Superstonk - T+35 is the one true "cycle" [Evidence to back my theory up plus a step-by-step guide on how to follow along at home]](https://preview.redd.it/83o4bvpgsm571.png?width=616&format=png&auto=webp&s=4527094e5aa1d136adabc4dd554778ac29b5590c)](https://preview.redd.it/83o4bvpgsm571.png?width=616&format=png&auto=webp&s=4527094e5aa1d136adabc4dd554778ac29b5590c)
+
+Is it about my DD? No idea, probably not. But it's fun to think about. If any of the RC Tweet analyzers can find a definite connection, that would make my day.

DD/2021-07-05-The-OTC-Conspiracy-Part-I.md

@@ -0,0 +1,358 @@
+The OTC Conspiracy - GME, idiosyncrasies, and the infinite Banana Trees (Part 1)
+================================================================================
+
+| Author       | Source       | 
+| :-------------: |:-------------:|
+|  [u/nayboyer2](https://www.reddit.com/user/nayboyer2/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/oejtty/the_otc_conspiracy_gme_idiosyncrasies_and_the/) | 
+
+---
+
+[DD 👨‍🔬](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22DD%20%F0%9F%91%A8%E2%80%8D%F0%9F%94%AC%22&restrict_sr=1)
+
+"Let's take another dive into that Dark Pool data
+
+And learn why our stonk has such a Negative Beta
+
+High Frequency Trading, when they got stuck
+
+TLDR: Hedgies R Fuk"
+
+I'm a long-winded SOB, so I'm going to break this into 2 parts.
+
+I'll start with Part 1 and cover November through March.
+
+I know Part 1 is a big stinky Data Dump, but I'll try to include some additional take-home points in Part 2 once they release the final May data.
+
+Part 2 will include April through May plus some "Bananas for Thought".
+
+There's a Visual TLDR at the end, so you could probably start there if you're not a data donkey like me.
+
+I've been looking at the OTC data for a couple of months:
+
+[Missing Bananas 1](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/mvfs0c/over_30_of_gme_bananas_are_missing_from_bloomberg/) (4/21)
+
+[Missing Bananas 2](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/mx4j9p/dark_pool_dd_summary_and_a_quick_update_on_all/) (4/23)
+
+[The OTC Conspiracy](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/myf505/probably_the_last_dd_youll_ever_need_to_read_the/) (4/25)
+
+[The OTC Conspiracy Part 2](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/n5q76p/the_otc_conspiracy_part_2_shining_some_light_into/) (5/5)
+
+[OTC Conspiracy Graph](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/o5amd8/the_otc_conspiracy_this_graph_and_data_shows_gme/) (6/21)
+
+There's no doubt in my mind that the OTC has been used for fuckery and manipulation in an effort to control the price. For this post, I decided to evaluate the OTC from a slightly more macro perspective. In the [OTC Conspiracy Part 2](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/n5q76p/the_otc_conspiracy_part_2_shining_some_light_into/), I compared GME OTC to 33 other stocks. The sample wasn't perfect, but it was clear GME has been traded more in the OTC than any other stock.
+
+For this post, I wanted to look at how GME has been handled in OTC compared to the OTC as a whole.
+
+Why should we care about the OTC?
+
+The NYSE President, Stacey Cunningham, confirmed in an interview last month that the prices of "meme stocks" may be distorted because the majority of trades in those names are executed away from public exchanges where share price formation occurs.
+
+From the Reuters article about that interview, [Meme Stock Prices May Not Properly Reflect Demand](https://www.reuters.com/business/meme-stock-prices-may-not-properly-reflect-demand-nyse-president-2021-06-16/), Stacey Cunningham says:
+
+"In some of the meme stocks that we've seen, or stocks that have a high level of retail participation, the vast majority of order flow can trade off of exchanges, which is problematic."
+
+"That price formation is not really reflective of what supply and demand is."
+
+"Individual traders contribute as much as 70% of the volume (in these stocks)"
+
+As the article states, the majority of retail orders bypass exchanges because of Payment for Order Flow arrangements, in which retail brokerages sell their customers' marketable orders to wholesale brokers. The wholesalers match the orders internally, trying to profit off of the bid-ask spread, while offering retail traders the 'best market price or better'.
+
+But the practice raises conflict of interest questions, including whether off-exchange trading - which is about 50% of the market when institutional block trades are included - distorts the price discovery mechanism for stocks, Gary Gensler said.
+
+GGee... I wonder...
+
+Preface to the Data
+
+Let's jump right in. Please note that I removed De Minimis Firms from my monthly data analysis because these firms are too small or too cowardly to identify themselves as GME OTC participants (was dat u Melvin?). Each participant is identified individually in FINRA Total OTC data so it was very difficult to compare.
+
+Because I had to remove De Minimis Firms from the analysis, the actual monthly GME OTC totals are slightly less than the original FINRA data that I presented in my previous posts. However, doing this allowed me to look at each participant's monthly activity across the entire OTC and compare it to their monthly activity for GME.
+
+I have zero finance background, so I'm going to try to limit speculation as much as possible and leave that to the wrinkly-brained apes in the comments and in future posts.
+
+All the data is directly from the [FINRA OTC website](https://otctransparency.finra.org/otctransparency/OtcIssueData).(<https://otctransparency.finra.org/otctransparency/OtcIssueData>)
+
+FINRA somehow thinks it's fair and reasonable to release this "top secret data" at least 4 weeks delayed, so Part 2 will only include data through May, after it gets released tomorrow.
+
+December and November OTC
+
+A normal November and a December dial-up
+
+[![r/Superstonk - The OTC Conspiracy - GME, idiosyncrasies, and the infinite Banana Trees (Part 1)](https://preview.redd.it/gvkmrk5smh971.png?width=1580&format=png&auto=webp&s=ce9c3b62c8794e8a2cb2ef5301b070cba1fcb46d)](https://preview.redd.it/gvkmrk5smh971.png?width=1580&format=png&auto=webp&s=ce9c3b62c8794e8a2cb2ef5301b070cba1fcb46d)
+
+In November and December, GME OTC trades accounted for 0.11% and 0.17% of participants total OTC trading activity
+
+November:
+
+-   8 participants
+
+-   GME was 0.10% of Total OTC shares traded for these participants
+
+-   GME was 0.11% of Total OTC trades for these participants
+
+-   201 million OTC trades; GME ~ 224,000
+
+-   OTC ~ 313 shares/trade; GME 290 shares/trade
+
+-   GME price ~ $12-16
+
+December:
+
+-   7 participants
+
+-   GME 0.13% of Total Shares
+
+-   GME 0.17% of Total Trades
+
+-   241 million OTC trades; GME ~ 406,000 (81.3% monthly increase from November)
+
+-   OTC ~ 313 shares/trade; GME 247 shares/trade
+
+-   GME Price ~ $16-$20
+
+In November, GME was 0.10% of total OTC shares traded and 0.11% of total OTC trades. To me, it makes sense to have a similar allocation of % shares traded and % trades. It also makes sense that the shares/trade for GME would be similar to the entire OTC marketplace (290 vs 313). That's why I feel like November provides a good basis for comparison even though GME was heavily manipulated well before November and December 2020.
+
+In December, we already see these numbers begin to skew. GME was 0.13% of shares, and 0.17% of trades and the average shares/trade for GME dropped from 290 in November to 247 in December. The average shares/trade for these participants across the entire OTC marketplace (including GME) remained at 313.
+
+January OTC
+
+The January Jump-Off
+
+[![r/Superstonk - The OTC Conspiracy - GME, idiosyncrasies, and the infinite Banana Trees (Part 1)](https://preview.redd.it/b9v5q2oqk9971.png?width=1770&format=png&auto=webp&s=15926b50d64846a4da254cc245025db4fd9e279c)](https://preview.redd.it/b9v5q2oqk9971.png?width=1770&format=png&auto=webp&s=15926b50d64846a4da254cc245025db4fd9e279c)
+
+In January, GME OTC trades accounted for 1.85% of all OTC trades for these participants. GME shares accounted for 0.51% of all OTC shares traded
+
+January:
+
+-   14 participants (from 7 in December)
+
+-   GME was 0.51% of Total OTC shares traded
+
+    -   The monthly % increase in GME OTC shares traded OTC was over 518% from December and over 700% from November
+
+-   GME was 1.85% of Total OTC Trades for these participants
+
+    -   Up from 0.17% in December and 0.11% in November
+
+-   OTC ~ 311 million trades; GME 5.76 million trades
+
+    -   1319% monthly % increase in GME OTC trades from December
+
+    -   2473% monthly % increase in GME OTC trades from November
+
+-   OTC ~ 328 shares/trade; GME 90 shares/trade
+
+-   GME closing price ~ $17 - $347 (but only 4 trading days closed above $100)
+
+We know that the volume in January was literally bananas (over 1.26 billion). And over 49% of that volume (over 624 million) went to the OTC and ATS dark pools.
+
+The GME average shares/trade decreased from 247 to 90, while the average shares/trade for these participants across the entire OTC marketplace (including GME) increased from 313 to 328.
+
+GME was 0.51% of total OTC shares traded for these participants.
+
+Meanwhile, the idiosyncrasy of % shares and % trades was further amplified, with GME accounting for 1.85% of total OTC trades. So almost 1 out of every 50 OTC trades across the entire OTC marketplace for these participants was GME.
+
+Meanwhile, more than 1 out of every 50 OTC trades (2.23%) that Citadel made in January was GME (and they trade a LOT of securities). They traded more shares OTC in January than any other month to date. Their shares/trade for GME dropped from 360 to 98, while their shares/trade for the entire OTC (including GME) increased from 353 to 390. They increased their GME monthly shares from 47 million in December to over 252 million (an increase of 432%). They made almost 2.56 million GME OTC trades, an increase of over 1840% from December and an increase of over 3270% from November.
+
+They weren't acting alone. I bolded all of the participants whose GME trades accounted for >1% of their overall OTC trades (11 of 14 participants).
+
+-   Virtu increased their GME trades by over 1150%
+
+-   G1 Execution increased their GME OTC trades by over 1419%
+
+-   Jane Street increased their GME OTC trades by over 1842%
+
+-   and UBS Securities increased their GME OTC trades by over 1423%
+
+-   Two Sigma (436%) and Wolverine (441%) also increased their trading in January
+
+Their only chance at remaining solvent was to turn off the buy button, kick the can with married puts, and initiate Fuckery in February.
+
+February OTC
+
+The February Fuckery was Afoot
+
+[![r/Superstonk - The OTC Conspiracy - GME, idiosyncrasies, and the infinite Banana Trees (Part 1)](https://preview.redd.it/szdozinfk9971.png?width=1773&format=png&auto=webp&s=408609baf93e5a3a253daf1b49bc21a6e28649c4)](https://preview.redd.it/szdozinfk9971.png?width=1773&format=png&auto=webp&s=408609baf93e5a3a253daf1b49bc21a6e28649c4)
+
+Robinhood enters the fray in February, making 772,000 trades with 774,600 shares
+
+February
+
+-   14 participants (from 14 in January)
+
+-   GME accounted for 0.31% of Total OTC shares traded (from 0.51% in January)
+
+    -   The monthly GME OTC shares decreased 42.3% from January
+
+    -   However, the monthly GME OTC shares traded was still up over 199% from December and over 361% from November
+
+-   GME accounted for 2.24% of Total OTC Trades for these participants
+
+    -   Up from 1.85% in January, 0.17% in December, and 0.11% in November
+
+-   OTC ~ 345 million trades; GME 7.73 million trades
+
+    -   34.2% monthly % increase in GME OTC trades from January
+
+    -   1804% monthly % increase in GME OTC trades from December
+
+    -   3353% monthly % increase in GME OTC trades from November
+
+-   OTC ~ 283.3 shares/trade; GME 38.8 shares/trade
+
+-   GME closing price ~ $40-$225 (but only 3 trading days closed above $100)
+
+So, while there was a 42% decrease in GME shares traded OTC, there was a 34.2% increase in trades... What else changed?
+
+Robinhood entered the OTC for the first time in February. They actually eased into it nice and slow.
+
+-   Week of 2/1 - 0 trades
+
+-   Week of 2/8 - 1,675 trades
+
+-   Week of 2/15 - 14,900 trades
+
+Warming up with a little foreplay before the real GME molestation began.
+
+During the week of 2/22 they made over 755,400 trades with over 757,900 of our shares. You don't need a math degree to see that averages out to almost exactly 1.00 shares/trade.
+
+This was likely in an effort to try to mitigate the increase in price from having to cover some of January's mountain of FTDs that weren't tucked away in options. I remember watching these fuckers desperately try to suppress the price on 2/25 and 2/26.
+
+-   We opened on 2/24 at $44 and closed at $91 on 83 million in volume.
+
+-   We opened on 2/25 at $169, yet somehow closed at $108 on over 150 million in volume.
+
+-   On 2/26, we opened at $117 and closed at $101 on over 92 million in volume.
+
+I thought this deserved a closer look.
+
+[![r/Superstonk - The OTC Conspiracy - GME, idiosyncrasies, and the infinite Banana Trees (Part 1)](https://preview.redd.it/ci4tbrc4a9971.png?width=1715&format=png&auto=webp&s=0b2049cab89ede5ab148f33a867774c890431c51)](https://preview.redd.it/ci4tbrc4a9971.png?width=1715&format=png&auto=webp&s=0b2049cab89ede5ab148f33a867774c890431c51)
+
+February Fuckery was afoot during the week of 2/22. Robinhood made almost 24% of the GME OTC trades that week, more than even Citadel and trailing only Virtu
+
+Robinhood accounted for almost 24% of GME's weekly OTC trades, trailing only Virtu. They made more GME OTC trades than Citadel. GME accounted for almost 17.5% of their total OTC shares and almost 18.7% of their total OTC trades.
+
+GME was over 5.56% of the total OTC trades for these participants during the week of 2/22, but only 0.70% of the volume. GME was over 3% of total OTC trades in 13 out of the 15 participants (in bold).
+
+There were over 3.157 million GME trades on the OTC during this one week!
+
+To put that into perspective, the number of GME OTC trades in December was 406,000 and the number of GME OTC trades in November was less than 224,000. In fact, there was 225% more GME trades made in the OTC in that one week than September, October, November, and December COMBINED (1.4 million trades).
+
+The average shares/trade across the entire OTC (including GME) for these participants was over 305. The average shares/trade for GME was 38.5.
+
+I'm sure there are more connections we can make from this one week of data, but for brevity sake, I'm going to zoom back out to the monthly data.
+
+In February, Citadel was able to decrease the number of GME shares traded OTC by over 54% from January. However, Citadel actually increased the number of GME trades made OTC by 3.73% from January (an increase of 1912% from December and 3396% from November). Their average GME shares/trade decreased from 98.6 in January to 43.6 in February. Their average shares/trade across the entire OTC (including GME) dropped from 390 to 330. GME was still over 2% of their total OTC trades, but only 0.27% of their total OTC shares. It certainly seems like Ken was playing high frequency patty cake with his good pal Vlad, now that RH had conveniently joined the OTC frenzy.
+
+Citadel and Robinhood weren't the only participants to participate in this HFT frenzy. Virtu decreased their GME OTC shares traded by 15%, but increased the number of GME OTC trades by 12.25%. Their average shares/trade GME dropped from over 77 in January to 58 in February. GME accounted for 0.36% of their total OTC shares, but 1.94% of their total OTC trades.
+
+Wolverine went from 98 GME shares/trade in January to 3.85 shares/trade in February. They did so by decreasing the shares traded by 91%, while increasing the number of trades by 127.6%. GME was 0.03% of their total OTC shares traded, but 2.23% of their total OTC trades. No wonder why they sold their GME.
+
+G1 Execution dropped their GME shares/trade from 142 in January to 28.8 in February. They decreased their monthly GME shares traded by 64% and increased their monthly trades by almost 78% from January (up 2602% from December and 4033% from November). GME was over 3.8% of their total OTC trades, but only 0.45% of their OTC volume. Their shares/trade decreased from 142 in January to 28.8 in February (vs 244.7 for the entire OTC including GME).
+
+Two Sigma increased their GME OTC trades by almost 83% from January (up 881% from December and 1541% from November), but increased their shares by only 17.8%. Their shares/trade for GME dropped to an all-time low of 17.75.
+
+I could keep going with February Fuckery, but let's move on to The March Manipulation.
+
+March OTC
+
+The March Manipulation
+
+[![r/Superstonk - The OTC Conspiracy - GME, idiosyncrasies, and the infinite Banana Trees (Part 1)](https://preview.redd.it/ponb5hgvj9971.png?width=1621&format=png&auto=webp&s=8799c8667e212f9fc0a61ca930fa8c82228fc9ce)](https://preview.redd.it/ponb5hgvj9971.png?width=1621&format=png&auto=webp&s=8799c8667e212f9fc0a61ca930fa8c82228fc9ce)
+
+Robinhood upped the ante with 1.656 million trades using 1.658 million shares. The total percent of OTC trades that was GME increased for the 5th straight month to 2.32%.
+
+March:
+
+-   12 participants (from 14 in February)
+
+-   GME accounted for 0.30% of Total OTC shares traded (from 0.31% in February)
+
+    -   The monthly GME OTC shares decreased 17.07% from February
+
+    -   However, the monthly GME OTC shares traded was still up almost 148% from December and almost 283% from November
+
+-   GME accounted for 2.32% of Total OTC Trades for these participants increasing for the 5th straight month
+
+    -   Up from 2.24% in February, 1.85% in January, 0.17% in December, and 0.11% in November
+
+-   OTC ~ 329 million trades; GME 7.65 million trades
+
+    -   1.06% monthly % decrease in GME OTC trades from February
+
+    -   32.8% monthly % increase in GME OTC trades from January
+
+    -   1784% monthly % increase in GME OTC trades from December
+
+    -   3317% monthly % increase in GME OTC trades from November
+
+-   OTC ~ 255.3 shares/trade; GME 32.5 shares/trade
+
+-   GME closing price ~ $120-$265 (9 out of 20 trading days closed above $200)
+
+The GME shares/trade dropped to an all-time low of 32.5. Robinhood increased their GME OTC shares traded and number of GME OTC trades by 114% each. March was the month of the great Robinhood exodus, and it's likely that they began scrambling for shares. GME was over 7% of their total OTC shares and over 7.3% of their total OTC trades.
+
+The idiosyncrasies between % of total shares (0.30%) and % of total trades (2.32%) continued to widen. This is shown in the decreasing shares/trade and in the monthly % change (-17% shares vs -1% trades).
+
+Citadel's shares/trade for the entire OTC was almost 317.8, while their shares/trade for GME was 42.6.
+
+Jane Street continued to increase their GME OTC trading activity by another 60% in March (a 3705% increase from December and 6614% increase from November).
+
+Virtu continued to decrease their shares traded, while increasing their GME trades. They were the most active GME OTC participant in March, making almost 2 million trades, while dropping their shares/trade from 58 to 48. Meanwhile, their shares/trade across the entire OTC (including GME) was 279.
+
+The week of March 8th was kind of wacky:
+
+[![r/Superstonk - The OTC Conspiracy - GME, idiosyncrasies, and the infinite Banana Trees (Part 1)](https://preview.redd.it/z2yxmkqj8a971.png?width=1638&format=png&auto=webp&s=82e40b3b4208b6c5f88ddada08f96cd27d021d1f)](https://preview.redd.it/z2yxmkqj8a971.png?width=1638&format=png&auto=webp&s=82e40b3b4208b6c5f88ddada08f96cd27d021d1f)
+
+Robinhood leads the entire GME OTC in Trades
+
+Robinhood was 1.00% of the weekly OTC shares, but used those 765,000 shares to make over 763,000 trades, which was 25.78% of the weekly total. They made more OTC trades than any other participant. GME was almost 20% of their total OTC shares and almost 21% of their total OTC trades.
+
+Think about how many GME shares Robinhood had on default Margin in January... The mass exodus foiled their plan.
+
+There were 2.96 million GME OTC trades in one week. That's 211% more trades in one week than September, October, November, and December COMBINED (1.4 million trades).
+
+Shares/trade for the entire OTC (including GME) was 319.46, while shares/trade for GME was 25.85.
+
+GME accounted for 0.50% of the total OTC shares, but 6.15% of the total OTC trades. GME accounted for more than 3% of their total OTC trades for 13 out of 15 OTC participants. For G1 Execution, GME accounted 0.86% of their total OTC shares, but 9.20% of their total OTC trades.
+
+GME was only 0.57% of Virtu's OTC shares, but almost 5% of their total OTC trades.
+
+GME was only 0.36% of Citadel's OTC shares, but 4.16% of their total OTC trades.
+
+For the Visual Apes
+
+Let's end Part 1 with little TLDR:
+
+Monthly GME OTC trades September - March
+
+[![r/Superstonk - The OTC Conspiracy - GME, idiosyncrasies, and the infinite Banana Trees (Part 1)](https://preview.redd.it/72uezos4dh971.png?width=699&format=png&auto=webp&s=8e742a99fde0798cfd6f2d0b435517d2dfddbdf6)](https://preview.redd.it/72uezos4dh971.png?width=699&format=png&auto=webp&s=8e742a99fde0798cfd6f2d0b435517d2dfddbdf6)
+
+Huge increase in GME OTC trades
+
+Weekly GME OTC Trades (late September - March)
+
+[![r/Superstonk - The OTC Conspiracy - GME, idiosyncrasies, and the infinite Banana Trees (Part 1)](https://preview.redd.it/g6b7rhlbhh971.png?width=1004&format=png&auto=webp&s=cd6de72fae89ad38c842e13a69ff3cb574f65621)](https://preview.redd.it/g6b7rhlbhh971.png?width=1004&format=png&auto=webp&s=cd6de72fae89ad38c842e13a69ff3cb574f65621)
+
+These weeks seem to stand out...
+
+GME monthly Shares/Trade OTC from September - March
+
+[![r/Superstonk - The OTC Conspiracy - GME, idiosyncrasies, and the infinite Banana Trees (Part 1)](https://preview.redd.it/kuohghnugh971.png?width=745&format=png&auto=webp&s=0047c2b43cf6d878f2ab42a52367c81526125272)](https://preview.redd.it/kuohghnugh971.png?width=745&format=png&auto=webp&s=0047c2b43cf6d878f2ab42a52367c81526125272)
+
+Shrinking shares/trade
+
+GME Shares/Trade OTC vs. Entire OTC Marketplace (including GME) - November - March
+
+[![r/Superstonk - The OTC Conspiracy - GME, idiosyncrasies, and the infinite Banana Trees (Part 1)](https://preview.redd.it/moaplsfrgh971.png?width=983&format=png&auto=webp&s=329a69fd0e09fc69f38a60578cf8ce3880660a04)](https://preview.redd.it/moaplsfrgh971.png?width=983&format=png&auto=webp&s=329a69fd0e09fc69f38a60578cf8ce3880660a04)
+
+Shrinking shares/trade - Spoiler alert, it's only getting worse...
+
+Lastly, using an estimated GME Float of 26.7 million (January - March before share offerings), and comparing it to a few other stocks (see [OTC Conspiracy Part 2](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/n5q76p/the_otc_conspiracy_part_2_shining_some_light_into/) for more info and examples):
+
+[![r/Superstonk - The OTC Conspiracy - GME, idiosyncrasies, and the infinite Banana Trees (Part 1)](https://preview.redd.it/ifaffppgjh971.png?width=1198&format=png&auto=webp&s=2dafcba6ae97dffa86c4ad806dac09bcafcdcf6a)](https://preview.redd.it/ifaffppgjh971.png?width=1198&format=png&auto=webp&s=2dafcba6ae97dffa86c4ad806dac09bcafcdcf6a)
+
+Over 4000% GME Float traded OTC in Q1
+
+Part 2 coming soon!
+
+Buy, HODL, and Buckle Up! Power to the Players

DD/2021-07-06-Citadel-China-and-The-45th-Investigation.md

@@ -0,0 +1,236 @@
+Citadel, China and The 45th - A Triangular Investigation Into "He's trying to hide some of his money"
+=====================================================================================================
+
+| Author       | Source       | 
+| :-------------: |:-------------:|
+|  [u/incandescent-leaf](https://www.reddit.com/user/incandescent-leaf/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/DDintoGME/comments/oeptry/citadel_china_and_the_45th_a_triangular/) | 
+
+---
+
+[𝘜𝘯𝘷𝘦𝘳𝘪𝘧𝘪𝘦𝘥 𝘋𝘋](https://www.reddit.com/r/DDintoGME/search?q=flair_name%3A%22%F0%9D%98%9C%F0%9D%98%AF%F0%9D%98%B7%F0%9D%98%A6%F0%9D%98%B3%F0%9D%98%AA%F0%9D%98%A7%F0%9D%98%AA%F0%9D%98%A6%F0%9D%98%A5%20%F0%9D%98%8B%F0%9D%98%8B%22&restrict_sr=1)
+
+Ken Griffin - Citadel. What a guy he is. Where are you, Ken? Where the hell is he? He's trying to hide some of his money.
+
+- Trump, January 15th 2020
+
+TL;DR
+
+-   Ken Griffin already has hidden his money, we know he has offshore accounts. Why would he be speaking with Trump about hiding assets?
+
+-   The direct context of the quote is all good news for Citadel's operations in China, so why was Ken absent from the ceremony and why did Trump not praise him (but praised everyone else)?
+
+-   I spectulate Trump was actually talking about Griffin wanting to hide his *trades*
+
+-   Circumstantial evidence for this is that 1 day before this quote, sweeping changes to the National Market System finally hit the Federal register. These changes as I have [somewhat poorly] analyzed before will make market-making and PFOF a lot less profitable for Citadel (and Virtu and other market makers), and also tidy up some loopholes likely being abused by Citadel.
+
+Preface
+
+This DD is about what many apes thought was a throwaway line, and so did I until recently. But I have been thinking about it lately, and the more I investigated the context, the more I came to suspect it was actually a rare, blurry glimpse into the underbelly of interactions between Wall street and US politics.
+
+I was actually writing another DD before I came to write this, but it started to become too large of a topic, so I thought I better break off this 'sub-investigation' into its own contained unit, as it's neatly separable, and was only ever circumstantial evidence anyway.
+
+I have deliberarely kept this post non-political, and expect all comments to be non-political as well. It's a superstonk rule that all posts/comments be non-political (Rule 5 -Improper Content). Here is a diagram of what we will be covering:
+
+[![r/DDintoGME - Citadel, China and The 45th - A Triangular Investigation Into "He's trying to hide some of his money"](https://preview.redd.it/b7647vvlkj971.png?width=750&format=png&auto=webp&s=3dbbdc97ff90810db1557f6429ac134d7fd7cff5)](https://preview.redd.it/b7647vvlkj971.png?width=750&format=png&auto=webp&s=3dbbdc97ff90810db1557f6429ac134d7fd7cff5)
+
+January 15th 2020 - Signing of Phase One of U.S. - China Trade Deal
+
+January 15th, a Thursday marked a historic signing of Phase One of a U.S. - China trade deal. President Trump had made U.S. - China relations a central component of his policy as President for years before this, and so this agreement was a culmination of many years of work. Contrary to what was shown in the media, the agreement was not just about manufacturing, agriculture and intellectual property. The trade agreement has a whole chapter devoted to Financial Services - mostly with China agreeing to allow the US access to their markets. Some sources even claimed that financial services was the winner of the entire trade agreement.
+
+On Monday the 20th January, only 5 days after this trade agreement was signed - Citadel Securities had agreed to pay a $97 Million Settlement to Chinese financial regulators, bringing a close to 5 years of active investigations and being partially banned from trading in China. We will return to this event later on in the DD. For now, let's dive into the signing ceremony of the trade agreement.
+
+[Trump spoke for about an hour at the signing.](https://www.c-span.org/video/?468176-1/us-china-trade-deal) The first 27 minutes were overall remarks about the trade situation, and a lot of thanking personal friends and other political allies (I have pulled out relevent people's quotes):
+
+> TRUMP: [Hank Greenberg](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maurice_R._Greenberg) is here. Hank. If they took care of Hank, they wouldn't have had the problems that they had. Where's Hank? Hank Greenberg. (Applause.) Oh, Hank. If Hank stayed there like he should have, you wouldn't have had the problem that you ended up having with our economy. But it's great to have you, Hank. Thank you very much.
+
+After this time, Trump begins to speak to industry professionals and other government appointees. This carries on for 10 minutes, and plenty of financial industry professionals were greeted by name (the roll-call was in alphabetic order). I have pulled out all the ones I can recognize:
+
+> TRUMP: Ajay Banga, of Mastercard. Thank, Ajay. Fantastic job.
+
+> TRUMP: Brian Duperreault, of AIG. Do you know that company, Hank? AIG. Did you ever hear of AIG, Hank Greenberg? Thank you very much. I appreciate it, Brian.
+
+This is a joke. :) Hank Greenberg was the head of AIG.
+
+> Mary Erdoes, JPMorgan Chase. They just announced earnings, and they were incredible. Where - where are you? They were very substantial. Will you say, "Thank you, Mr. President" at least? Huh? (Laughter.) I made a lot of bankers look very good. But you're doing a great job. Say hello to Jamie [Dimon]. I think we're seeing him tomorrow.
+
+Then it was Ken's turn:
+
+> TRUMP: Ken Griffin, Citadel. What a guy he is. Where are you, Ken? Where the hell is he? He's trying to hide some of his money. Look, he doesn't want to stand up. Where the hell is Ken? See, Steve, you'll stand, and he's very quiet about it. He's in here someplace; he just doesn't want to stand.
+
+Notice how Trump doesn't praise Ken? I'm also not sure who Steve is in this context.
+
+> TRUMP: Al Kelly, Visa. Al Kelly. Al Kelly, thank you.
+
+> TRUMP: Alan MacDonald, Citibank. Citibank. (Applause.) Good. Boy, you brought that back so far. I remember seven, eight years ago. But Citibank is doing fantastically well.
+
+> TRUMP: Raymond McDaniel, Moody's. Good. Are you giving us good ratings, Raymond, please? Okay? We're doing pretty good, right?
+
+> TRUMP: Paul Taylor, of Fitch. That's another good ratings group. Are we doing okay at Fitch? Good. Otherwise, I wouldn't have introduced you, if I thought - (laughter).
+
+> TRUMP: Kevin Warsh. Kevin. Where's Kevin? I don't know, Kevin. I could have used you a little bit here. Why weren't you more forceful when you wanted that job? Why weren't you more forceful, Kevin? You're a forceful person. In fact, I thought you were too forceful, maybe, for the job. And I would have been very happy with you.
+>
+> But, Kevin, thank you for being here. You understand that very well, right? It bothers me when Germany and other countries are getting paid to borrow money. This is one - I don't know where that all leads, but we have to pay. We're the number one in the world, by far, and we have to pay for our money. Our interest rates are set high by the Fed. Our dollar is very high, and - relatively speaking. But when other countries get - literally, they're under. They have negative rates - meaning, they're under. They get paid. I love this. This concept is incredible. Again, you don't know where the hell it leads. But you borrow money, and when you have to pay it back, they pay you. This is one that I like very much. And I'm going to talk to you about that, Lou Dobbs.
+>
+> So we're set at two. Tell me, why are we paying and other countries are getting money when they get paid back? I really want to know: Who are the people that buy this stuff? Who puts money into something when they say, "This is a guaranteed loss"? But that's a whole different group of people than I know.
+
+Quite a story there for Kevin Warsh! [[During and in the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis, Warsh was a governor of the Federal Reserve System, and acted as the central bank's primary liaison to Wall Street](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kevin_Warsh)]
+
+> TRUMP: Glenn Youngkin, of Carlyle. [Carlyle Group](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Carlyle_Group). Great group.
+
+Also present at the signing was Kenneth Berntsen - the chairman of the [Engage China Coalition](http://engagechina.com/2020/02/engage-china-coalition-regarding-china-phase-one-trade-agreement-and-financial-services/). That's a group of financial industry heavyweights who've been trying for years to pry open the door to the Chinese market. Up until now, they haven't had much luck. Even though China's the world's second-largest economy, Bentsen says U.S. financial firms make only about $2 billion a year there, less than a third what they make in Brazil and about 1.5% of what they make in Europe.
+
+The Engage China Coalition:
+
+American Bankers Association
+
+American Council of Life Insurers
+
+American Property Casualty Insurance Association
+
+BAFT (Bankers Association for Finance and Trade)
+
+The Council of Insurance Agents and Brokers
+
+The Financial Services Forum
+
+The Futures Industry Association
+
+Insured Retirement Institute
+
+Investment Company Institute
+
+Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association
+
+The Trade Agreement Itself - Chapter 4 Financial Services
+
+[Some analysts have said that financial services was the clear winner of the trade agreement](https://www.npr.org/2020/01/16/797098404/u-s-financial-services-industry-emerges-as-%20%20a-winner-of-u-s-china-trade-deal). And I can see why given the changes actually demanded. [Here is the full text](https://ustr.gov/sites/default/files/files/agreements/phase%20one%20%20%20agreement/Economic_And_Trade_Agreement_Between_The_United_States_And_China_Text.pdf) of chapter 4 itself
+
+[![r/DDintoGME - Citadel, China and The 45th - A Triangular Investigation Into "He's trying to hide some of his money"](https://preview.redd.it/956oetrnkj971.png?width=715&format=png&auto=webp&s=bf3cd92124b48eb70310fdfa58dfb08b88d34612)](https://preview.redd.it/956oetrnkj971.png?width=715&format=png&auto=webp&s=bf3cd92124b48eb70310fdfa58dfb08b88d34612)
+
+[![r/DDintoGME - Citadel, China and The 45th - A Triangular Investigation Into "He's trying to hide some of his money"](https://preview.redd.it/n1mef1gokj971.png?width=748&format=png&auto=webp&s=3caca5e4df26ca4370b36cdc6bebc38ac62f3b9c)](https://preview.redd.it/n1mef1gokj971.png?width=748&format=png&auto=webp&s=3caca5e4df26ca4370b36cdc6bebc38ac62f3b9c)
+
+[![r/DDintoGME - Citadel, China and The 45th - A Triangular Investigation Into "He's trying to hide some of his money"](https://preview.redd.it/ee7pqj4pkj971.png?width=743&format=png&auto=webp&s=aaa276e1b863139834548e2348d76f25e99d5ce1)](https://preview.redd.it/ee7pqj4pkj971.png?width=743&format=png&auto=webp&s=aaa276e1b863139834548e2348d76f25e99d5ce1)
+
+[![r/DDintoGME - Citadel, China and The 45th - A Triangular Investigation Into "He's trying to hide some of his money"](https://preview.redd.it/sd15xbvpkj971.png?width=738&format=png&auto=webp&s=8b4fc9dfe0d9587b64c376d5c9bfae5c01b813fa)](https://preview.redd.it/sd15xbvpkj971.png?width=738&format=png&auto=webp&s=8b4fc9dfe0d9587b64c376d5c9bfae5c01b813fa)
+
+The agreement itself allows major US expansion into the Chinese markets, and overall - it seems like a clear win for the US.
+
+Trade Agreement Summary
+
+So looking back at all the finance professionals Trump spoke to, did you notice anything strange? Ken was the only finance-related attendee Trump didn't praise. In fact it looks like out of everyone spoken about, Ken was the only one not being praised. This is unusual for Trump, because he usually praises everyone, a lot. Unless he does not like someone.
+
+So why did Ken Griffin not turn up, when all the other financial industry professionals did? Did he know that Trump was going to say something provocative, or was it something else?
+
+If the Engage China Coalition and other finance folks were so pleased with the trade agreement, how could Ken Griffin be upset about it? This trade agreement is supposed to be good for the US financial industry access to Chinese markets...
+
+And why did Citadel Securities pay their $97 Million fine only 3 business days later after this trade agreement? They've been locked out of China for almost 5 years - surely they would've done it sooner if they could? Or if the trade agreement was necessary for Citadel to regain access, why didn't Ken turn up to say thanks?
+
+However before we dig deeper into this trade agreement, Citadel's fine and the Trump / Griffin relationship we need to go all the way back to the beginning of this story.
+
+Citadel Securities in China
+
+Under previous Chinese laws - foreign companies had to partner with local companies to operate in China. Citadel Securities opened Citadel Shanghai Trading Ltd in 2010, and parterned with Guosen Securities who managed their trading account.
+
+[In June 2015, the Chinese stock markets were devastated with a large crash](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2015%E2%80%932016_Chinese_stock_market_turbulence), wiping nearly $5 Trillion of value out at the bottom. By July, the Shanghai stock market was down 30%, and more than half of listed companies had filed for trading halts in an attempt to prevent further losses. By August 2015, stock prices had dropped a total of 43 percent.
+
+Chinese regulators began to crack down on abusive market practices, and Citadel was the first to be caught. Starting at the beginning 2015, Citadel is accused of using deceptive and illegal trading practices in order to manipulate stock prices. Citadel was accused variously of "co-ordinated stock dumping", "selling-off of heavily weighted stocks", automated, algorithm-driven trading, spoofing, and of course - "malicious short-selling". Their account held by Guosen was banned.
+
+["The regulator alleged that Citadel Securities controlled and used accounts set up by four other firms to trade stocks during the first seven months of 2015 and said such behaviors were suspected of violating account and asset management rules without providing further details."](https://www.wsj.com/articles/after-a-four-year-freeze-citadel-securities-can-trade-again-in-china-11579526314)
+
+["Chinese regulator, however, didn't ban the practice [short selling] entirely, but after the scrutiny, investors can't sell and then buy shares back the same day. Instead, they must now wait after completion of a short sale transaction until at least the next day to repurchase."](https://www.financemagnates.com/institutional-forex/regulation/citadel-securities-fined-97m-in-china-for-malicious-short-selling/)
+
+This restriction (if true, I can't read Chinese) implies that shares were being traded back and forth between the same parties multiple times a day. This is textbook [wash trading](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/w/washtrading.asp), which rose to prominence in 2013 in Western markets.
+
+["The tiff doesn't end there for Citadel. George Chen, managing editor of the international edition for the South China Morning Post, tweeted that a government-backed publication called ThePaper.cn was implying that Citadel advisor and former Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke somehow knew that the high-frequency trading firm was shorting the market."](https://www.nexchangenow.com/news/11995/in-hunt-for-short-sellers-china-suspends-citadel-unit-from-trading-and-hints-advisor-bernanke-may-know-about-shorts/)
+
+Goldman Sachs was also caught in this crackdown, and they were also banned from trading. Local Chinese firms were also caught as well, but generally emerged largely with miniscule fines and slaps on the wrist.
+
+April 24th, 2019 it was announced Goldman Sachs had been cleared by the China Securities Regulatory Commission [CSRC], with a fine of $22.93 Million. In late 2019 the CSRC began to reconcile with Citadel, and only on January 20th 2020 (after the signing of the Trade agreement) - was it announced Citadel had settled for $97 Million. According to a somewhat opaque statement released by the CSRC on January 20, the settlement for Citadel Securities was "based on differing circumstances, such as the amount of money made through the suspected illegal acts,"
+
+In summary for this section, Citadel was caught in China performing many of their tricks, and based on the timing - it seems likely they were unbanned only with US government intervention in late 2019 / early 2020, around the time of the U.S. - China Trade Agreement Phase One. So if Citadel was unbanned from their planned expansion in China, why did Ken snub Trump, and why did Trump not praise Ken? It's time to take a look at the Ken Griffin & Trump relationship.
+
+Ken Griffin & Trump's Relationship
+
+It's difficult to find much on their relationship, and I've pieced together what I can from a few events.
+
+[Ken Griffin donated $1.55M in 2012 to Romney's campaign.](https://www.cnbc.com/2016/09/23/megadonors-like-ken-griffin-peter-thiel-keep-their-wallets-closed-for-trump.html)
+
+[In 2016 - he donated $2.6M to Rubio, rather than Trump.](https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/politics-news/meet-the-gop-mega-donors-of-the-2016-election-223992/)
+
+[Griffin did give $100,000 to Trump's 2017 inauguration though - a relatively low amount.](https://news.artnet.com/art-world/steve-cohen-1m-trump-donation-930890)
+
+[Ken Griffin was hosted at a private donor's dinner later (probably in 2017) by Pence](https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/341196-pence-holding-private-donor-dinners-at-vice-presidents-residence)
+
+In 2018, Ken Griffin began to speak out against Trump's policies, notably criticizing Trump's criticism of J-Pow & Fed policies , and also criticizing the tariff war escalation with China.
+
+[In this interview on Delivering Alpha](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KIIFm2kmif0), Ken is asked what are his thoughts on the Administration's trade policies with China. Ken pauses briefly, shifts his gaze downwards, and then using a hand gesture, a gulp, begins to try and explain using his nicest words, how Trump is doing a great job with the trade war "Trump unquestionably has the right mission on trade", but that Ken doesn't really understand how the negotiations are going, and suspects they are very complicated. He makes a comment about how he would never have so many active 'fronts' open, and would close some of them. When asked directly, he refuses to comment on whether he thinks Trump is doing a good job. It seems relatively clear to me that he's having difficulty delivering his words with convicition. Then for his final words Ken regains his speaking conviction, and clearly tears down the idea that tariffs are good.
+
+In 2016, Ken Griffin made a total political donations of only $11.2 Million (to Republican-allied super PACs). In 2018, it was $19.2 Million.
+
+In 2020, Ken Griffin donated a whopping $66 Million to Republican-allied super PACs! [In fact, Ken Griffin came in at number 4 on the individual donors list for the 2020 election cycle.](https://www.opensecrets.org/outsidespending/summ.php?cycle=2020&disp=D&type=V&superonly=N)
+
+Also in March 2020, Ken Griffin advised President Trump on how to open up the economy after Covid, along with other finance professionals (e.g. Steve Cohen).
+
+In summary for this section, I don't think Trump & Griffin saw eye to eye on many issues, or even had a friendly relationship. However it's very clear, especially towards the end of 2020, they had a working relationship, and that Ken Griffin bet very heavily on a 2nd Trump term - which we can assume would be greatly beneficial for Citadel.
+
+I didn't get time to look into Jay Clayton (Trump's SEC chairman appointee), and who Clayton's changes at the SEC benefitted - but suspect this would be a fruitful thing to investigate.
+
+Bringing It All Together
+
+So I hope I have covered somewhat the Citadel, China & Trump triangle. In the first section, we saw that it was unusual how Trump addressed Griffin versus other attendees, and that Griffin had a lot to gain from this trade deal.
+
+In the second section, we learned about Citadel's ban from trading in China, and how their unbanning seemed to also follow the trade deal - even more reason for Griffin to be pleased, and more curious that he didn't appear.
+
+In the third section, we learned a bit about Ken Griffin's and Trump's relationship, and how even though they were not close friends, they had developed a significant working relationship and Griffin *heavily* bet on Trump winning the 2020 election.
+
+In short - what I have uncovered is mostly that Ken Griffin had a lot to gain from Trump's China trade deal, and I can't make any sense of why he snubbed the signing ceremony, or wasn't praised by Trump. That's it - that's my point.
+
+Speculation Section
+
+So what else could make sense then? Well what if when Trump mentioned that Ken wants to hide his money, he wasn't talking about money. Ken wanted to hide his trades.
+
+Well looky here what dropped onto the Federal register on the Monday before the signing ceremony. Sweeping changes to the National Market System (Reg NMS II) that make market-making less profitable for entities such as Citadel and Virtu, and also make PFOF more difficult.
+
+<https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2020/01/14/2020-00358/joint-industry-plan-notice-of-filing-of-the-forty-seventh-amendment-to-the-joint-self-regulatory>
+
+<https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2020/01/14/2020-00359/consolidated-tape-association-notice-of-filing-of-the-thirty-third-substantive-amendment-to-the>
+
+<https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2020/01/14/2020-00363/consolidated-tape-association-notice-of-filing-of-the-thirtieth-substantive-amendment-to-the-second>
+
+<https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2020/01/14/2020-00357/joint-industry-plan-notice-of-filing-of-the-forty-fourth-amendment-to-the-joint-self-regulatory>
+
+<https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2020/01/14/2020-00360/notice-of-proposed-order-directing-the-exchanges-and-the-financial-industry-regulatory-authority-to>
+
+Odd lots are a very important part of these change proposals, and here I link the submissions that Citadel (and by contract, Blackrock) made on them. I believe Odd lots to be an integral part of how Citadel hides trades, and will be writing more about them in a further DD.
+
+<https://www.theice.com/publicdocs/SIP_Comment_Citadel_redacted.pdf>
+
+<- Citadel commenting on Odd lot NMS proposal
+
+<https://www.theice.com/publicdocs/BlackRock_Odd_Lot_Proposal_December_3_2019.pdf>
+
+<- Blackrock comments on Odd lots NMS proposal
+
+I have briefly covered these changes before in this [DD](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/n90gg4/sec_release_3490610_aka_nms20_effective_june_8/), but basically the NMS II from what I can tell - contains multiple changes that would hurt Citadel's business model. What I'm suggesting is that Ken Griffin was annoyed with Trump that Jay Clayton & the SEC was making changes beneficial to other market participants, to Citadel's detriment. This DD is all circumstantial evidence, as I realized it was becoming too large to attach to the main DD, which will be focused more on mechanisms rather than trying to discover motivations & allegiances from public information.
+
+To be continued.
+
+Miscellaneous references
+
+<https://www.reuters.com/article/china-regulator-goldman-idUSH9N22400P>
+
+<https://www.reuters.com/article/us-hedgefunds-deliveringalpha-citadel-idUSKBN1K8252>
+
+<https://www.pressreader.com/china/global-times/20170526/282119226489179>
+
+<https://www.reuters.com/article/china-regulator-goldman-idUSH9N22400P>
+
+<https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Markets/Stocks/Stock-falls-after-admission-of-probe>
+
+<https://www.reuters.com/article/china-guosen-president-idUSL3N12N3QF20151023>
+
+<https://www.scmp.com/business/markets/article/1846104/us-hedge-fund-citadel-banned-share-trading-shanghai-account>
+
+<https://supchina.com/2020/02/04/was-chinas-97-million-fine-for-u-s-hedge-fund-citadel-politically-motivated/>
+
+<https://www.wsj.com/articles/after-a-four-year-freeze-citadel-securities-can-trade-again-in-china-11579526314>

DD/2021-07-09-FINRA-Confirms-Calls-and-Puts-used-to-Create-Synthetic-Shorts.md

@@ -0,0 +1,63 @@
+Calls/Puts Confirmed As Unreported Synthetic Short Shares - FINRA; Unsuccessful Attempt by MM/HF to Death Spiral GME Shows Correlation to Margin Debt
+=====================================================================================================================================================
+
+| Author      | Source | 
+|  :----:     |    :----:   |        
+| [u/Freadom6](https://www.reddit.com/user/Freadom6/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/oh09v7/callsputs_confirmed_as_unreported_synthetic_short/) |
+
+---
+
+
+[DD 👨‍🔬](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22DD%20%F0%9F%91%A8%E2%80%8D%F0%9F%94%AC%22&restrict_sr=1)
+
+Obligatory: Not financial advice. I am merely pointing out some items I have stumbled across during my late nights reading regulatory documents. Much of what I will discuss is my speculative opinion on information I am reading and using deductive reasoning to put this information together.
+
+TL;dr FINRA confirms calls/puts used to create "synthetic shorts". I have pointed this out in a prior DD but used a bad title on the post. See my profile or [this link](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/ofmswd/finra_requests_comment_on_short_interest_position/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3) for my past DD on this...
+
+Margin Debt has rocketed up just prior to the previous two recessions since 2000 (DOTCOM/Housing crashes) and it is currently on its largest rapid increase since the 2008 crash, but this time it is going substantially higher in a very short amount of time. When did this rapid margin debt ascent begin? When GME share pricing started turning glorious green in August of 2020. I believe Market Makers/Hedge Funds have been leveraging short sales in margin accounts on GME and other meme stocks and that is the cause of the current levels of margin debt. Don't want to read anymore? I don't blame you in the slightest. Look at the charts at the end of the post.
+
+SKIP THIS PART IF YOU SAW MY LAST POST.
+
+PUTS/CALLS Used as SYNTHETIC SHORTS and are NOT REPORTED, Confirmed by FINRA:
+
+[Regulatory Notice 21-19](https://www.finra.org/rules-guidance/notices/21-19)
+
+As my previous DD showed, FINRA has confirmed that synthetic shorts are being created through Call/Put Options and that information is not included in the current short interest reporting numbers. My apologies as I should have titled the post that way, so it got more visibility for those who wanted to see it. Direct quote from regulatory notice:
+
+"enhanced short interest reporting could include synthetic short positions achieved through the sale of a call option and purchase of a put option (where the options have the same strike price and expiration month) or through other strategies."
+
+For additional information on Regulatory Notice 21-19, see my previous DD or go to the link above for the actual Regulatory Notice.
+
+OKAY, ON TO THE SUBJECT AT HAND:
+
+What are Margin Accounts?
+
+"A customer who purchases securities may pay for the securities in full or may borrow part of the purchase price from his or her securities firm. If the customer chooses to borrow funds from a firm, the customer will open a margin account with the firm. The portion of the purchase price that the customer must deposit is called margin and is the customer's initial equity in the account. The loan from the firm is secured by the securities that are purchased by the customer. A customer may also enter into a short sale through a margin account, which involves the customer borrowing stock from a firm in order to sell it, hoping that the price will decline. Customers generally use margin to leverage their investments and increase their purchasing power. At the same time, customers who trade securities on margin incur the potential for higher losses." [FINRA Defines Margin Account](https://www.finra.org/investors/learn-to-invest/advanced-investing/purchasing-margin)
+
+My Interpration of Current Margin Debt Levels and Why Levels are Rapidly Elevating
+
+Steady, slow increasing margin debt is expected in a robust and flourishing economy. It means the consensus is that the economy is strong and heading in the right direction and investors are willing to take on the risk associated with borrowing in a margin account because they feel the reward outweights the risk. Steadily declining margin debt would indicate the potential for a bear type sentiment or recession as investors are not willing to take on the risk of borrowing.
+
+I have not been able to find many well written articles on rapid increases or decreases to Margin Debt from reputable sources, so I have taken it upon myself to chart the monthly reported margin debt numbers compared to the monthly (1st of the month) S&P 500 share prices. As you will see below, we have had two recessions since 2000 with the DOTCOM/Housing crashes. Prior to the crashes, Margin Debt RAPIDLY increased just like it has been doing since August of 2020. However, the increase this time is even more rapid and at substantially higher levels.
+
+In prior years, Market Makers (MM), hedge funds (HF), etc. found that brick-and-mortar stores were a dying breed with the increase in online shopping and they realized they could make mountains (not piles) of money from naked shorting these businesses into a "[Death-Spiral](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Death_spiral_financing)" where the ultimate result is the bankruptcy of the company, which means the borrowed shares do not need to be returned to the lender because the stock ceases to exist, which in turn leads to full profitability for the MM/HF aside from the fees associated with borrowing the stock to short.
+
+If you were a MM or HF and you have found it to be highly lucrative (especially when fines for naked shorting are peanuts compared to profits) to bury companies in a death spiral scenario EVERY TIME YOU DO IT (Blockbuster, Toys-R-Us, Sears, etc.) would you feel comfortable using margin to continue doing this to other businesses? Maybe shorting more than 140% of the available float of a company's stock? I would not, but that is only because I am NOT a GIANT bag of shit. Remember, money sitting in the bank does nothing for these guys, it is best to have all your cash in play so you are making a profit on it versus losing value to inflation while sitting peacefully in a bank account. Some people would think that is a stupid idea (myself included), but if you had the ability to control a lot of the share pricing regarding securities through illegal and manipulative tactics, like MM's do, you are not overly concerned with the risk. Especially when death spiraling has worked every time before.
+
+But what would happen if a company so severely shorted reimagined itself, found a large and dedicated shareholder base, and became profitable when the short interest is this high? Enter GAMESTOP. As you will see from the charts below, GME began showing significant positive share price movement in August of 2020. What happened to Margin Debt when Gamestop share prices went up? Margin Debt abso-fucking-lutely EXPLODED.
+
+[![r/Superstonk - Calls/Puts Confirmed As Unreported Synthetic Short Shares - FINRA; Unsuccessful Attempt by MM/HF to Death Spiral GME Shows Correlation to Margin Debt](https://preview.redd.it/6zyntbass7a71.jpg?width=558&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=1ccb5a9307aeab561438a541af100e8794207275)](https://preview.redd.it/6zyntbass7a71.jpg?width=558&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=1ccb5a9307aeab561438a541af100e8794207275)
+
+Margin Debt 1997 - Current (Source: FINRA)
+
+[![r/Superstonk - Calls/Puts Confirmed As Unreported Synthetic Short Shares - FINRA; Unsuccessful Attempt by MM/HF to Death Spiral GME Shows Correlation to Margin Debt](https://preview.redd.it/1j6w8gf4t7a71.jpg?width=555&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=30ecc48bbca580af33be9fb090e09cf92323f5b4)](https://preview.redd.it/1j6w8gf4t7a71.jpg?width=555&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=30ecc48bbca580af33be9fb090e09cf92323f5b4)
+
+S&P Share Price 1997 - May 2021 (Source: https://www.multpl.com/s-p-500-historical-prices/table/by-month)
+
+June margin debt numbers will be interesting to keep an eye on if we haven't begun our long awaited journey by that time. The numbers should be released by the 15th of this month.
+
+My head hurts.
+
+Hedgies R Fuk'd.
+
+Tanks fo' readin.

DD/2021-07-09-Ryan-Cohen-in-Standstill-Agreement-until-2022.md

@@ -0,0 +1,65 @@
+Why are we being left in the dark? Why all the cryptic tweets? Why doesn't Ryan Cohen just tell us what's up? ......Enter the Standstill Agreement that doesn't allow Ryan Cohen to speak openly about GameStop until 2022
+======================================================================================================================================================================================================================
+
+| Author       | Source       | 
+| :-------------: |:-------------:|
+|  [u/Ginger_Libra](https://www.reddit.com/user/Ginger_Libra/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/oh3ocf/why_are_we_being_left_in_the_dark_why_all_the/) | 
+
+---
+
+
+[DD 👨‍🔬](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22DD%20%F0%9F%91%A8%E2%80%8D%F0%9F%94%AC%22&restrict_sr=1)
+
+January bag holder here. We used to talk about this more in the other subs and I felt like it was common knowledge. I'm not smart enough to have research this myself but I looked it up again because there seems to be a lot of shit talking and confusion.
+
+Ryan Cohen and RC Ventures entered into a Standstill Agreement on January 10, 2021 that has a long list of provisions that essentially prohibits him from speaking out directly.
+
+Specifically, he is not allowed to influence voting or board votes and another long list of activities until about March 1, 2022.
+
+<https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1326380/000119380521000031/e620202_ex99-1.htm>
+
+So for everyone wondering why things are quiet, this is why.
+
+Here's the deal.
+
+This week sucked. Next week is uncertain. The DTC/other colluders rules we've been waiting for don't appear to have made a difference in hedge fund fuckery. We took a beating.
+
+I bought my first share at $350. I held to $38.
+
+I want tendies. But I'm not fucking leaving over this. Never. I'm out when the share price looks big for Kenny and his pals, not when it looks big to me. That's the only way I'm selling.
+
+And you know what? I trust Ryan Cohen. I know he has a plan. I know he will do right by us.
+
+He isn't talking to us because he can't. But he is communicating. And it's going to be fine. Better than fine. It's going to be fucking glorious. Life altering.
+
+It's coming. Changing corrupt financial systems and taking down evil villains ain't easy. That's why super hero's have movies about them. Shits hard.
+
+It's Friday. Go fuck off. Have a tasty beverage. Get some sun on your face this weekend. Get laid if there is someone who will enthusiastically consent to fucking you. Or just willingly consent.
+
+Tomorrow is a new week. NFT week. Could be nothing. Could be everything. Everything is coming.
+
+In the meantime, dream your dreams about what you're going to do with your tendies.
+
+I'm fixing this fucking planet I love so much. Apes are going to find a solution for climate change. I'm going to be a part of that movement. I'm making my plans.
+
+You do you. There's lots of broken shit in this fucked up system.
+
+Come back Monday ready to hype.
+
+TL;DR: Papa Cohen can't say anything publicly until around March 1, 2022.
+
+Wen moon? Soon moon.
+
+Edit to add: because I am spelling everything out....remember, Kenny and his buddies aren't going down easily or we'd all be rich by now.
+
+Everything needs to be above board so that GameStop and RC don't get sued. I'm sure they will get sued but the goal is to not have anything substantive behind it.
+
+He also has to watch what he says to the SEC doesn't get him for market manipulation. He has to watch his mouth to protect us and protect our tendies.
+
+Elon has gotten in trouble for this. And RC is smarter than Elon so he is walking a finer line.
+
+Second edit: some of you seem to think the Standstill Agreement ends after he became 🪑👨. It does not and if it's amended or changed it would be filed with the SEC.
+
+The Standstill Agreement protects GameStop from a hostile takeover. Hostile takeovers of corporate boards are a whole other post. This is a not so hostile takeover.
+
+Other chairman and CEOs can speak out because they didn't buy shares to join a company. They don't have Standstill agreements.

DD/2021-07-10-T+21-The-Game-of-Hide-and-Seek-is-Finally-Over.md

@@ -0,0 +1,95 @@
+T+21. The game of Hide & Seek is finally over. And while I'm at it I might as well try to prove how July 14th is going to become our new January 13th.
+======================================================================================================================================================
+
+| Author       | Source       | 
+| :-------------: |:-------------:|
+|  [u/JaboniThxDad](https://www.reddit.com/user/JaboniThxDad/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/DDintoGME/comments/ohm7uq/t21_the_game_of_hide_seek_is_finally_over_and/) | 
+
+---
+
+
+[𝘜𝘯𝘷𝘦𝘳𝘪𝘧𝘪𝘦𝘥 𝘋𝘋](https://www.reddit.com/r/DDintoGME/search?q=flair_name%3A%22%F0%9D%98%9C%F0%9D%98%AF%F0%9D%98%B7%F0%9D%98%A6%F0%9D%98%B3%F0%9D%98%AA%F0%9D%98%A7%F0%9D%98%AA%F0%9D%98%A6%F0%9D%98%A5%20%F0%9D%98%8B%F0%9D%98%8B%22&restrict_sr=1)
+
+January 13th... What am I talking about?
+
+January 13th is what I refer to as *Day 0*. This was *'the spike'* that caused the build-up to our January mini-squeeze. I'll explain everything as we move along chronologically but first, let's establish some patterns.
+
+What happened in the 12 days prior to January 13th? Our volume had lows down to 4.9 million and highs up to 14.9 million. Also, our prices saw lows down to $17.08 and highs up to $21.97.
+
+Then the 13th happened. Boom. 144 million volume in a single day. That's more than 1.5 times the volume of the previous 12 days *combined*. We opened at $20.42, reached a high of $38.65 and ended up closing at $31.40.
+
+Then over the next 5 days we reached lows of $33.05, highs of $45.52 and on the 6th day we appeared to start going parabolic. That 6th day, we reached a high of $76.76, Day 7, a high of $159.18, Day 8... $150, Day 9... $380, Day 10... $483.
+
+Don't worry. I won't go into as much detail going forward. I'm just trying to demonstrate why the above matters, especially the part where we appear to start going parabolic close to Day 6 after every spike.
+
+[![r/DDintoGME - T+21. The game of Hide & Seek is finally over. And while I'm at it I might as well try to prove how July 14th is going to become our new January 13th.](https://preview.redd.it/nxomkyjtyea71.jpg?width=1176&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=290b06fd0f9239546b84f49234f6256452182513)](https://preview.redd.it/nxomkyjtyea71.jpg?width=1176&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=290b06fd0f9239546b84f49234f6256452182513)
+
+Day 0 and its aftermath
+
+January 25th
+
+A lot of people lost faith in the 21-day cycle. I never did and I'll do my best to explain why. If you look at the chart, you can see what happened on the 25th of January, 7 days after our spike. I believe this is the day that short sellers trapped themselves into a cycle that would begin the creation of our glorious cup.
+
+February 24th
+
+Day 21. We hit 67.4 million volume on this day. The price opened at $44.70 and we reached both a high and a close of $91.71. This spike started the run-up to the peak of the left side of our cup. Once again, it appeared we started going parabolic around Day 6 and as of Day 10 we hit our March peak, the left side of our cup... $348.50. We consolidated in the days leading up to the 24th of February and did experience more volume on that day than any of the days leading up to it during our consolidation period but it was not as drastic as what had happened in January.
+
+[![r/DDintoGME - T+21. The game of Hide & Seek is finally over. And while I'm at it I might as well try to prove how July 14th is going to become our new January 13th.](https://preview.redd.it/qs18bxnuyea71.jpg?width=1175&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=fb7d2eee08e5c20c8e6ec8c0af871467c722967c)](https://preview.redd.it/qs18bxnuyea71.jpg?width=1175&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=fb7d2eee08e5c20c8e6ec8c0af871467c722967c)
+
+February 24th volume & price spike preceded by lower volume and followed by sideways trading prior to a parabolic move
+
+March 25th
+
+Day 21. We hit 50.4 million volume on this day. The price opened at $123.49, we reached a high of $187.50 and closed at $183.75. We once again start experiencing consolidation from Day 1 to Day 5 and what happens on Day 6 when we normally end up going parabolic? A share offering of 3.5 million at-the-market is announced. Without this, we would have went parabolic and the cup would have been invalidated. *Welcome to the chess game.*
+
+[![r/DDintoGME - T+21. The game of Hide & Seek is finally over. And while I'm at it I might as well try to prove how July 14th is going to become our new January 13th.](https://preview.redd.it/ojqf0ywvyea71.jpg?width=1182&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=a8505ff421d32b0646cc9fa7ea0f8a88daad1375)](https://preview.redd.it/ojqf0ywvyea71.jpg?width=1182&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=a8505ff421d32b0646cc9fa7ea0f8a88daad1375)
+
+This one is not like the others and for good reason
+
+April 26th
+
+Day 21. This is where people lost faith in the 21-day cycle. But they shouldn't have. Why? Remember that share offering announced on April 5th? Well, it was announced as completed at the end of trading on the 26th and I believe it re-established the 21-day cycle. Perfectly played. Yes, we're definitely watching a chess match. Check.
+
+[![r/DDintoGME - T+21. The game of Hide & Seek is finally over. And while I'm at it I might as well try to prove how July 14th is going to become our new January 13th.](https://preview.redd.it/ljv29v5zyea71.jpg?width=420&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=54d8dfdf54dd186fe8dc84d4f7295ff558b5dc5c)](https://preview.redd.it/ljv29v5zyea71.jpg?width=420&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=54d8dfdf54dd186fe8dc84d4f7295ff558b5dc5c)
+
+I see you
+
+May 25th
+
+Day 21. 14.4 million volume. We opened at $181, reached a high of $217.11 and settled in with a close of $209.43. On Day 9 we reach the peak of the right side of our cup with a high of $344.66. What happens on Day 10? Welcome to our June 9th at-the-market share offering. This is the beginning of our handle. Check.
+
+[![r/DDintoGME - T+21. The game of Hide & Seek is finally over. And while I'm at it I might as well try to prove how July 14th is going to become our new January 13th.](https://preview.redd.it/6zw2yzzazea71.jpg?width=1179&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=25b5dde81650e0d0a51331a2be5c32099c2c6f46)](https://preview.redd.it/6zw2yzzazea71.jpg?width=1179&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=25b5dde81650e0d0a51331a2be5c32099c2c6f46)
+
+I heard you all like pictures so I made you one
+
+June 24th
+
+What about June 24th? Well, I've seen a lot of people mention that they don't think the share offerings are impacting the price much at all. No disrespect to anybody but I believe this is entirely wrong. I think it's clear that it did so back in April and also again in June. Not only did GameStop kindly offer a total of 8.5 million more shares At-The-Market which short sellers could have used to cover if they so wished (*Spoiler Alert: they didn't*), but I believe it also served to do 2 additional things.
+
+1.  I believe it was used to guarantee the MOASS by kicking the can down the road so we could align with a date where we are going to have a significant price spike (July 14th) which just so happens to be 35 days from when the June 9th ATM was announced. Feel free take this one with a grain of salt though if you choose.
+
+2.  I believe the short sellers used these 8.5 million shares to short immediately as of the announcements and I don't think they limited themselves to the 8.5 million either when taking liberty to do this. Take this with however much salt you deem appropriate though.
+
+So, what now?
+
+I know, you know, we all know by now... we already won. At this point in time we're just going through the motions. But this is what I see. The price is going to spike on July 14th. Can it be a different day? Sure, but I really believe it's the 14th. I think we will see an insane amount of volume and a large price increase on that day. Do I think we'll moon on that date? Nope.
+
+At least not based on previous patterns. I don't know options well enough to know what will happen as a result of all the Calls/Puts ITM/OTM on July 16th but I imagine that things are going to get crazy. And fast. But moon, I don't think so. At least not yet anyway.
+
+Now for the party trick.
+
+Remember when GameStop announced the share offering completion on April 26th? This restarted us on a 21-day schedule. Now, did you pay attention to when the June ATM completed? June 22nd. Lets count 21 trading days from the 22nd and see what we uncover shall we?
+
+Wait. First of all, I don't do dates. Ask my fiancee. Last date she went on was April 20th and all she got was an ice cream cone, a proposal and a tweet.
+
+Fine, be that way. I know you can do math anyway so I might as well come out and just say it. 21 trading days from June 22nd lands us on... July 22nd. Day 6. Checkmate.
+
+[![r/DDintoGME - T+21. The game of Hide & Seek is finally over. And while I'm at it I might as well try to prove how July 14th is going to become our new January 13th.](https://preview.redd.it/54fi3sf5zea71.jpg?width=1024&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=b450f02740061814075955edf8d45d9bc5ab5cdf)](https://preview.redd.it/54fi3sf5zea71.jpg?width=1024&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=b450f02740061814075955edf8d45d9bc5ab5cdf)
+
+Self-explanatory I hope
+
+My advice. For most of you, I believe this is the last '*normal*' weekend of your life. What happened over the last 6 months is going to make you a very wealthy individual. Let go of any hatred, focus on how you're going to make your life and the life of those around you better. We have a world to change.
+
+Thank you Keith. Thank you Ryan. Thank you GameStop. Thanks to everybody who has been a part of this journey. And with that said... Buckle up.
+
+TLDR: T+21 exists. I believe it gets reset at the completion of every ATM offering. Our next has been moved up to July 22nd and it lands right as I believe we're going to be sitting on the edge of space as a result of a July 14th spike.

DD/2021-07-12-COVID-19-The-CARES-Act-and-Undeniable-Greed.md

@@ -0,0 +1,132 @@
+COVID-19, The CARES Act, and Undeniable Greed: The Story of How Wall Street Tried to Bankrupt Businesses with Money Meant to Save Businesses (GME Centric)
+==========================================================================================================================================================
+
+| Author       | Source       | 
+| :-------------: |:-------------:|
+|  [u/Freadom6](https://www.reddit.com/user/Freadom6/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/oiwpxj/covid19_the_cares_act_and_undeniable_greed_the/) | 
+
+---
+
+[DD 👨‍🔬](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22DD%20%F0%9F%91%A8%E2%80%8D%F0%9F%94%AC%22&restrict_sr=1)
+
+Obligatory: This should not be confused with financial advise. I do not offer finanicial advice or services. I am simply pointing out connections I am making through data and deductive reasoning.
+
+TL;dr Prepare yourself for this next sentence, take a deep breath... How would you feel if I told you investment firms were given LARGE DOLLAR AMOUNTS in Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) "forgivable" loans (the money designed to keep businesses afloat during the pandemic) and the data and timing is indicating they used those funds to try to bankrupt businesses, including GME? Errrrmm... Scoots chair around uncomfortably... Because that is what I am about to tell you through these many words (and some pictures). Roughly $1.5 Billion worth of PPP loans went out to the "Industry" of "Investment Advice" through 12/1/2020.
+
+["Investment Advice" Industry Loan Data](https://www.federalpay.org/paycheck-protection-program/industries/investment-advice)
+
+[PPP Loan Forgiveness Requirements](https://www.sba.gov/funding-programs/loans/covid-19-relief-options/paycheck-protection-program/ppp-loan-forgiveness)
+
+GME & MEME STOCKS HIT BOTTOM 4/2 & 4/3 of 2020
+
+I originally began this journey into the great cesspool of our market system to compare GME monthly close prices to FINRA's reported margin debt, and while I did find the information I was looking for to show the continued correlation between GME and the current margin debt I slowly began to realize that was no longer the information I was seeking (I will make a margin debt post later this week). Why? Because looking at this information caused me to see that GME hit its bottom, in regard to share price, on April 3rd, 2020 after a 6 day skid beginning on March 27th, 2020 (I'm about to be sinful, avert your eyes if necessary, the movie company hit its bottom on April 2nd, 2020 after a 5 day skid beginning on March 27th, 2020, and Black Berry hit it's low on 4/3/2020 as well). In case this was a whole market slide I checked out some other tickers and found some other stock prices fell slightly, but most remained relatively flat compared to GME and the meme stocks.
+
+[GME Share Price Movement (and volume) Credit: www.investing.com](https://preview.redd.it/utb3wshkfta71.jpg?width=660&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=abe10fbed10dc955d82fc529a285b47d6aae1d63)
+
+[Credit: www.investing.com](https://preview.redd.it/d4zs1pnigta71.jpg?width=332&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=e51a5e1389d66b035ebee3fa1d04c814d319fbd0)
+
+CARES ACT
+
+So, why is March 27th, 2020, of any importance? Because on that day, "The Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security (CARES) Act (2020)... provided fast and direct economic assistance for American workers, families, small businesses, and industries" was signed into law. [CARES ACT](https://home.treasury.gov/policy-issues/coronavirus/about-the-cares-act)
+
+So now you are saying to yourself, yeah, but Hedge Funds were ineligible from receiving the funding even though they applied for it in mass amounts so why should I care? Because it appears that many firms investing in the market were QUITE ELIGIBLE as the below information is going to point out, and the data is indicating they used those funds or the anticipation of those funds to hammer GME and meme stocks with short selling from 3/27/20 -- 4/3/20.
+
+Let us reiterate, the money designed to keep small businesses afloat during the COVID-19 Winter of Discontent was used by firms investing in the stock market. What is worse, the data is showing that some of these firms were using the funds to short GME & meme stocks.
+
+FOX BUSINESS ARTICLE 4/18/2020
+
+Now, we'll take a look to a Fox Business article from 4/18/2020, written by: Charlie Gasparino (He is active on social media, but I'm not sure what he's up to these days aside from hating retail investors):
+
+[Stimulus Intended to Help Coronavirus-Ravaged Small Businesses Instead Rewarding Hedge Funds, Brokerages](https://www.foxbusiness.com/money/stimulus-intended-to-help-coronavirus-ravaged-small-businesses-instead-rewarding-hedge-funds-brokerages)
+
+*"The bank was receiving applications (for PPP Loans) not just from those barely solvent mom-and-pop businesses like* [*restaurants*](https://www.foxbusiness.com/category/food-drinks)*, salons and family-run* [*factories*](https://www.foxbusiness.com/category/industries) *shuttered amid the nationwide pandemic shutdown that the legislation was supposed to help.*
+
+*Flowing into his system were applications from businesses no one would consider small, or even barely solvent:* *Midsized hedge funds**,* *brokerage businesses,* *small law firms, all outfits that are making money, much of it through fee income, and many operating remotely almost as if nothing had changed.*
+
+*How could this be? What the banker discovered was that with less than 500* [*employees*](https://www.foxbusiness.com/category/jobs)*, financial firms and other high-end businesses are technically qualified for low-interest federally guaranteed loans under the broad parameters of the government's Payroll Protection Program (PPP).*
+
+*And many were sending applications to his bank for the cash, as much as $10 million in the form of a forgivable loan, even if these weren't the types of small businesses Washington was looking to aid.*
+
+*Even worse, the hedge funds and brokerage businesses were in effect taking money that should be earmarked for businesses that can barely survive in a time of social distancing and quarantines.*
+
+*These companies have been forced to lay off workers just to make rent, while many banks were prioritizing loans on a first-come, first-served basis and giving priority to their best customers. That means* [*hedge funds*](https://www.foxbusiness.com/category/hedge-funds) *and financial firms with deep pockets and significant banking relationships could be getting the money ahead of the local coffee shop...*
+
+*"What's going to happen is a class divide we haven't seen in years," the banker told FOX Business. "Remember Occupy Wall Street?" he asked, referring to the sometimes violent protest movement after the 2008 financial collapse and bank bailouts. "These protests will be bigger and more violent because the economic problems are worse and the disparity of the money is favoring Wall Street even more.""*
+
+Fuck me... I do not think my words are needed in summarizing this article. In case the article is now mysteriously updated I have taken screenshots of the entire article and will post them if necessary. Check the article out for additional details.
+
+Here is a MarketWatch Article from 4/15/2020 reiterating some main points: ["It's a complete abomination" says Wall Street money manager about hedge funds applying for bailouts from small-business recovery funds](https://www.marketwatch.com/story/its-a-complete-abomination-says-wall-street-money-manager-about-hedge-funds-applying-for-bailouts-from-small-business-recovery-funds-2020-04-14)
+
+DD on 13F Filings
+
+Armed with this information I decided to dig into the latest 2021 13F filings through [www.whalewisdom.com](http://www.whalewisdom.com/) and PPP loan recipients from <http://ppprecipients.com/> and found some interesting information. I did not review every company with holdings in GME, this is just a sample of firms with GME positions and some of those that received funding through the CARES Act (PPP Funds):
+
+2021-Q2 13F/13D/G Filings
+
+COMPANY 1
+
+1.  Company: Advisornet Financial
+
+2.  Shares: 10,000 (put)
+
+3.  Loan amount: $1 - $2 Million (approved on 4/4/2020)
+
+COMPANY 2
+
+1.  Company: Creative Planning
+
+2.  Shares: 13,700 (put)
+
+3.  Loan Amount: $350k - $1 Million (approved on 4/13/2020)
+
+Company 3
+
+1.  Company: Larson Financial Holdings
+
+2.  Shares: 100 (put)
+
+3.  Loan Amount: $2M - $5 Million (approved on 4/7/2020)
+
+All of these loans were approved in early April, 2020, meaning they were filed even earlier, before the PPP was signed into law on 4/24/2020, and look at how close those dates are to the implementation of the CARES Act and the GME tumble from 3/27/2020 -- 4/3/2020. LOOK HOW CLOSE. AND all these companies have open PUT positions in GME as of the last filing. Betting GME share price will go down. How did they receive funding when other small businesses were exempt and ended up going bankrupt? They directly or indirectly used the money designed to keep the economy and struggling businesses afloat to open put positions in GME? WTF?
+
+Now, things feel interesting. So, I decided to go even further down this slime covered cavern and look at 13F filings from 2020-Q2 (when GME hit its lowest close price) to see if any funds with actual shares in GME had received any loans and was unsurprised, but genuinely angry. I went "A" - "B" alphabetically through the list and found 3 companies who had shares in GME in 2020-Q2 that still have positions today (I skimmed through and saw plenty more later in the alphabet, I just have a hard time counting letters that high due to my intellectual inconsistencies):
+
+2020-Q2 13/F
+
+Company 1
+
+Advisors Asset Management, Inc
+
+1.  2020 Q2 Shares: 134,632
+
+2.  Loan Amount: $5M - $10 Million (approved on 4/5/2020)
+
+3.  Current Shares: 33,789 (latest 13/F filing)
+
+Company 2
+
+Arkadios Wealth Advisors (Arkadios Capital)
+
+1.  2020 Q2 Shares: (Sold all shares - 2)
+
+2.  Loan Amount: $150k - $350k (approved on 4/9/2020)
+
+3.  Current Shares: 2210
+
+Company 3:
+
+Bridgeway Capital Management
+
+1.  2020 Q2 Shares: 76,900
+
+2.  Loan Amount: $350k - $1 Million (approved on 4/11/2020)
+
+3.  Current Shares: 40,600
+
+My speculation is that several firms applied for the PPP funds on or near 3/27/2020, knew the funds were coming, and used those anticipated funds to aggressively short GME and other meme stocks due to the absolute tumble that GME/Meme stocks took from 3/26/2020 -- 4/3/2020 as stated above.
+
+I'm unsure how to conclude this post aside from: Buy/HODL. The day is coming.
+
+Tanks fo' reedin'.
+
+Edit: Thanks to [u/Evorus_Krayde](https://www.reddit.com/u/Evorus_Krayde/) for getting me to [u/Doggoonewild](https://www.reddit.com/u/Doggoonewild/) post: [Citadel Alum Charged with $2.4M PPP Loan Scam](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/mw3jd3/citadel_alum_charged_with_24m_ppp_loan_scam/?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share)

DD/Delta-Neutral-Updates-by-yelyah2/2021-07-08-Delta-and-Gamma-Neutral-Update.md

@@ -0,0 +1,136 @@
+Delta/Gamma Neutral Update - Hold strong!
+=========================================
+
+| Author       | Source       | 
+| :-------------: |:-------------:|
+|  [u/yelyah2](https://www.reddit.com/user/yelyah2/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/og9pcv/deltagamma_neutral_update_hold_strong/) | 
+
+---
+
+[DD 👨‍🔬](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22DD%20%F0%9F%91%A8%E2%80%8D%F0%9F%94%AC%22&restrict_sr=1)
+
+TLDR: This is just a quick update for the Delta Neutral/Gamma Neutral/Gamma Maximum indicators. The DN is currently ~$157, which isn't ideal for red days like we've been having, but GME always bounces back if it does drop. Hold strong!
+
+*Background*
+
+My work is built on the idea that the market is largely unpredictable, but one particular kind of behavior is certain - hedgies gonna hedge. It's written into their algorithms. Specifically, they like to delta hedge and gamma hedge. This work tries to profit on this one particular type of buying/selling behavior.
+
+[![r/Superstonk - Delta/Gamma Neutral Update - Hold strong!](https://preview.redd.it/sk94lr67d0a71.png?width=300&format=png&auto=webp&s=2d69b060bbd94a962f23985309109832a9031764)](https://preview.redd.it/sk94lr67d0a71.png?width=300&format=png&auto=webp&s=2d69b060bbd94a962f23985309109832a9031764)
+
+Hedgies Hedgin'
+
+In general, all stock indicators boil down to two things - reversion to the mean and momentum. Every trader wants to accurately predict these two forces better than other guy, and if you use different indicators than the other guy, that an give you an 'alpha' in trading if it's a better predictor.
+
+I make a lot of different indicators, but the two primary ones are the Delta Neutral and Gamma Neutral:
+
+-   Delta Neutral (DN) - This helps identify reversion to the mean, and represents the underlying price that would create a total market delta of 0 across all GME options (all expiration dates) for a given date. In general, it acts like a floor to the underlying price, but if the price drops below the delta neutral, then it tends to shoot back up above that line.
+
+    -   This is generally how I trade my model. I watch for stocks that drop below the DN, and buy them, expecting for traders to identify that the stock is underpriced and will revert back to a higher level.
+
+-   Gamma Neutral (GN) and Gamma Maximum (GM) - This helps identify momentum. The GN represents the underlying price that would create a total market gamma of 0 across all GME options (all expiration dates) for a given date, whereas the GM represents the underlying price that would create the maximum gamma across the market.
+
+    -   In general, a sudden increase in gamma indicates a sharp upward in momentum that continues until that gamma drops.
+
+    -   The GM seems to act like a ceiling, but fun things happen when the underlying crossing that threshold!
+
+This is my own personal 'alpha' that I developed for my own trading purposes, and am sharing with this community because it's given me back so much. This is not financial advice. I'm just a mathematician that likes to play with options data, and I am not a professional trader.
+
+There is a detailed data dictionary, methodology and assumptions section at the bottom that gives my method in full detail.
+
+*Delta/Gamma Neutral Graph*
+
+Here's the graph you're used to seeing, and it includes the Close Price (green), delta neutral (blue), gamma neutral (orange) and gamma maximum (red), on a log-based 10 scale so you can see those spikes in all their glory.
+
+[![r/Superstonk - Delta/Gamma Neutral Update - Hold strong!](https://preview.redd.it/c01cdyzfb0a71.png?width=910&format=png&auto=webp&s=80f628b1d49d920ef5ceaf49911ea5678c267e52)](https://preview.redd.it/c01cdyzfb0a71.png?width=910&format=png&auto=webp&s=80f628b1d49d920ef5ceaf49911ea5678c267e52)
+
+A few things that happened since I last posted:
+
+-   I've been working hard on updates to my model and creating new indicators that I hope to share soon. I know I keep saying that, but research takes time. There are a lot of twists/turns/unexpected results. May post what I have so far soon, and see if the group has any ideas to explain what I'm seeing.
+
+-   I refined my IV methodology, which caused the DN optimization to break during the January squeeze (not surprising), but that's why you see it crash out in January. I'm working on identifying why that's happening.
+
+-   The delta neutral floor is currently holding steady around $157, which obviously isn't ideal during these red days, but just know that GME always bounces back if it does drop.
+
+-   GME likes to hang out between 10% and 30% higher than the delta neutral price if nothing unusual happens, which gives a range of $172 - $204 for the underlying.
+
+-   GME's high is 214% higher than the DN back on 1/27, so certainly able to break higher, but it will see resistance to break higher.
+
+-   No significant action with the GN since 6/8
+
+-   The GM is currently at $247, indicating fun things COULD happen if we can bounce over that point.
+
+*Methodology and Assumptions*
+
+Delta Neutral
+
+The Delta Neutral price that creates a total market delta of 0 across all GME options (all expiration dates) for a given date. It can also be though of as the intersection of a supply/demand curve for hedged stocks. See the "Methodology and Assumptions" section for full detail on how I develop this indicator.
+
+Notes below for general options on how the delta neutral interacts with the underlying price:
+
+-   There is a large influx of call option purchases, because:
+
+    -   The call prices get less expensive as the underlying price approaches the delta neutral
+
+    -   Stock prices usually rebound/revert back to the mean after large crashes, so the price often rebounds anyways.
+
+-   With the large influx of call volume, market makers have to start buying stocks to delta hedge, which turns the price back around and creates an upward trajectory.
+
+    -   Important note that hedgies often hedge with derivatives instead of buying stocks, so there isn't a 1-to-1 relationship between the delta and shares bought/sold by hedge funds.
+
+-   Historically, you can see that GME often bounces off the delta neutral prices during drops. The exception is the February drop. When the underlying goes below the delta neutral price, a lot of pressure builds up that results in a significant increase when that pressure is released.
+
+    -   Note this is the primary way that I trade my model. I made a scanner that looks for equities that fall below the delta neutral.
+
+Gamma Neutral
+
+The Gamma Neutral price that creates a total market gamma of 0 across all GME options (all expiration dates) for a given date. See the "Methodology and Assumptions" section for full detail on how I develop this indicator.
+
+General notes below for observations on how this indicator behaves:
+
+-   It acts like support/resistance between the delta neutral and the underlying, and typically bounces around between the two prices for most symbols (like we have seen with GME since April).
+
+-   It also goes crazy in periods of high volatility, as you can see by the very higher spikes.
+
+-   A gamma spike indicates the presence of POTENTAILLY slippery option market conditions, which COULD lead to a gamma squeeze. There were certainly spikes present back in January, but we had a few one-day false starts this last month.
+
+-   They are often triggered by high price movement in a day, which can lead to continue high growth if underlying volume supports it.
+
+-   Gamma spikes can also be triggered by unusual options purchases during the day. These are the one ones to find, because you can often catch the high increase waves before they actually start.
+
+-   If I'm trading this indicator, I often either wait for a gamma spike to continue for 2 days in a row and supported by increased volume. Otherwise, I invest straight away if I find a gamma spike just based on options movement (i.e. no significant underlying increase yet).
+
+I write my own algorithms to produce the results above. The following lists some key methodology and assumptions I use:
+
+-   I rely on daily options and stock summaries produced by [www.historicaloptionsdata.com](http://www.historicaloptionsdata.com/)
+
+-   For the Implied Volatility (IV), I use the following method:
+
+    -   Calculate the raw IV of the mid-point between bid/ask price at close.
+
+    -   Calculate a "blend" IV, which represents the IV where the call/put parity holds, i.e. where call delta -- put delta = 1, using the same IV.
+
+    -   Smooth the mid-point call/put and blend IV using a gaussian smoothing algorithm with a 20-strike window.
+
+    -   Apply the smoothed call/put relativities to the smoothed blended IV curve
+
+    -   Fill any missing values with a linear interpolation of the neighboring strikes.
+
+-   Using the final call/put IV estimates described above, I calculate my own Greeks. I like this source if you're interested in the formulas: <https://www.macroption.com/option-greeks-excel>
+
+-   For the total market delta and total market gamma, I rely on the OI x delta and OI x gamma for each strike price.
+
+    -   Note that the delta of a call is usually equal to (1 - put delta), so not adjustment is needed to the delta signs when calculating the total market delta.
+
+    -   However, the call/put gammas are both positive based on the B-S calculation. If you're calculating the total gamma for a portfolio, or the total market, you have to add the call gamma and subtract the put gamma.
+
+-   To estimate the delta neutral and the gamma neutral, I have an algorithm that relies on the optimization toolbox in Matlab to identify an underlying price that achieve a total market delta and a total market gamma.
+
+-   Note that the IV would change with higher/lower prices for the delta/gamma neutral and the sensitivity tests, but the impact is not significant enough to make a meaningful difference and takes significant processing time to apply the IV curves. However, it is an important simplifying assumption to be aware of.
+
+-   Open Interest (OI) is always lagged one day for options summaries. The OCC releases final open interest on a given day, and it represents the OI for the close of the prior day. Therefore, the OI I get in my summaries on 6/28 does not represent the OI as of close on 6/28. It represents the OI as of close on 6/25. If you see a source like Yahoo give live OI throughout the day, they are only estimates, and their algorithm methodology for estimating the OI based on various price/volume movement is a closely guarded secret. Using the prior day OI is currently a limitation of the data available to me.
+
+*Disclaimer: I'm just a mathematician that likes to play with options data and builds models to trade for a hobby. I have no experience trading professionally or offering any advice to anyone. Nothing is certain in trading. It's all probabilities and what increases/decreases your chance at a profit. This is just one indicator for one type of price movement, and there are many other indicators that can help you make investment decisions.*
+
+*I'll do my best to respond to all comments, including the negative ones. I'm happy to have a productive chat about any of my logic. I've gotten a lot of good ideas from posting on this forum, so thank you! However, if I can defend myself in a dark parking lot with nothing but my high heels, I can certainly defend myself against online trolls. So be nice.*
+
+TLDR: This is just a quick update for the Delta Neutral/Gamma Neutral/Gamma Maximum indicators. The DN is currently ~$157, which isn't ideal for red days like we've been having, but GME always bounces back if it does drop. Hold strong!

DD/Delta-Neutral-Updates-by-yelyah2/2021-07-13-Knock-Knock-Knockin-on-Delta-Neutrals-Door.md

@@ -0,0 +1,164 @@
+Knock Knock Knockin' on Delta Neutral's Door
+============================================
+
+| Author       | Source       | 
+| :-------------: |:-------------:|
+|  [u/yelyah2](https://www.reddit.com/user/yelyah2/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/ojevhv/knock_knock_knockin_on_delta_neutrals_door/) | 
+
+---
+
+[Possible DD 👨‍🔬](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22Possible%20DD%20%F0%9F%91%A8%E2%80%8D%F0%9F%94%AC%22&restrict_sr=1)
+
+*Disclaimer: With the recent debate on the sub, I've decided to label my posts as "Possible DD" until someone is able to peer review my work, and independently replicate it. So far, my only proof has been how it works in the field, which means it should not be blindly taken as truth. I fully support academic standards, as every part of my work in real life is peer reviewed and my work has always been improved by an extra set of eyes. However, I also support choice and freedom of speech, so I think it's up to every writer to decide how to label their own work. It's also the responsibility of every reader to judge the quality of content they read, and don't take anything at face value. To the moon for us all!*
+
+TLDR: My read of several indicators (both contained in this post, and in my model) is we should start seeing some buying pressure this week, most likely in the option settlement period (Tuesday - Thursday), which will start us on a steady incline upwards.
+
+Although I can't report an imminent trip to the heavens using my indicators, I can say that we're knocking on the Delta Neutral's door... just as good? No.. but it does signal a turn-around is coming soon!
+
+My work is built on the idea that the market is largely unpredictable, but one particular kind of behavior is certain - hedgies gonna hedge. It's written into their algorithms. Specifically, they like to delta hedge and gamma hedge. This work tries to profit on this one particular type of buying/selling behavior. If you're lost, please refer to the detailed data dictionary, methodology and assumptions section at the bottom.
+
+*Delta/Gamma Neutral Graphs*
+
+Here she is! This graph includes the Close Price (green), delta neutral (blue), gamma neutral (orange) and gamma maximum (red), on a log-based 10 scale so you can see those spikes in all their glory.
+
+[![r/Superstonk - Knock Knock Knockin' on Delta Neutral's Door](https://preview.redd.it/6xmd5xls20b71.png?width=910&format=png&auto=webp&s=9fdb10a53d66a907fc38a7580259c821bfd151ca)](https://preview.redd.it/6xmd5xls20b71.png?width=910&format=png&auto=webp&s=9fdb10a53d66a907fc38a7580259c821bfd151ca)
+
+GME 1/4/2021 - 7/12/2021 - Log Based 10 Scale
+
+Observations for the graph below:
+
+-   the GME close price has been drifting downwards, while the delta neutral has been drifting upwards.
+
+-   The gamma neutral has been bouncing around between, and now the DN/GN/Close are all converging.
+
+-   Because the underlying price is drifting lower, instead of dropping quickly, so it MAY continue to drop past the DN before springing back up, but based on other indicators, I expect that pressure from hitting the DN will start making it more appealing to call buyers, and we should start to see a steady incline soon.
+
+-   The max gamma is holding steady at $260, which is my target to hit in order to launch us upwards.
+
+Just for fun, I thought would share a few other popular stocks that you can review for comparison. As you can see, the stocks often stay above the delta neutral, but occasionally drop to the delta neutral, and even sometimes below it, before ricocheting back upwards.
+
+[![r/Superstonk - Knock Knock Knockin' on Delta Neutral's Door](https://preview.redd.it/3ictf87i20b71.png?width=910&format=png&auto=webp&s=eb6dceff875317457c402dbe781a2700bdc76d11)](https://preview.redd.it/3ictf87i20b71.png?width=910&format=png&auto=webp&s=eb6dceff875317457c402dbe781a2700bdc76d11)
+
+Movie Stock 1/4/2021 - 6/18/2021
+
+[![r/Superstonk - Knock Knock Knockin' on Delta Neutral's Door](https://preview.redd.it/woxnaf6p20b71.png?width=910&format=png&auto=webp&s=6e8d49ecece333cc7d28a2290f23ca8d0db57496)](https://preview.redd.it/woxnaf6p20b71.png?width=910&format=png&auto=webp&s=6e8d49ecece333cc7d28a2290f23ca8d0db57496)
+
+BBBY 1/4/2021 - 6/28/2021
+
+[![r/Superstonk - Knock Knock Knockin' on Delta Neutral's Door](https://preview.redd.it/1netpi6n20b71.png?width=910&format=png&auto=webp&s=aa662200c7effe6332404cd98f7201c3fc14ed1a)](https://preview.redd.it/1netpi6n20b71.png?width=910&format=png&auto=webp&s=aa662200c7effe6332404cd98f7201c3fc14ed1a)
+
+SPCE 1/4/2021 - 6/28/2021
+
+*7/16 Expiration Dates*
+
+I know everyone's getting excited about the 7/16 puts expiring, but I have a few considerations:
+
+-   47% of all Call OI is expiring this Friday, versus 48% of all put oi. This battle is losing about the same number of bear/bull warriors on each side.
+
+-   On the other hand, 81% of call OI currently has strikes > 1.05 x Close, versus 96% of put oi with strikes < close / 1.05. So we should be keeping a higher percentage of valuable bull warriors, compared to the valuable bear warriors kept by the other side after Friday.
+
+-   The max pain is currently @$180, versus $200 for options expiring next week. I would never trade by the max pain, but it can be a good benchmark, and 11% increase for next week's options is a good sign that the equilibrium is trending up.
+
+-   The IV for the OTM puts (~Put @ -0.25 delta) minus the IV for ATM calls (Call @ ~0.50 delta) has been positive for the last few weeks, indicating higher buying pressure for OTM puts, compared to calls, and has corresponded to our long price drop.
+
+-   However, that difference finally turned negative today, indicating the IV for ATM calls is greater than the IV for the OTM puts, signaling the buying pressure for those OTM puts is easing up this week. Hopefully the bear put's reign of terror is finally subsiding after three.... long... brutal.... weeks....
+
+Finally, for reasons I would like to keep to myself because it's a big part of my alpha, I am expecting a nice bump in volume in the settlement period this week (Tuesday - Thursday), about an extra 1.1M more than usual, probably on Wednesday, which will result in some buying pressure if we maintain this nice low volume we've been having.
+
+TLDR: My read of several indicators (both contained in this post, and in my model) is we should start seeing some buying pressure this week, most likely in the option settlement period (Tuesday - Thursday), which will start us on a steady incline upwards.
+
+*Now it's time to tell you all the boring stuff....*
+
+[![r/Superstonk - Knock Knock Knockin' on Delta Neutral's Door](https://preview.redd.it/tstg6emk20b71.png?width=650&format=png&auto=webp&s=6e000a848f0399709f49b81739e1ce9ffc3a51a8)](https://preview.redd.it/tstg6emk20b71.png?width=650&format=png&auto=webp&s=6e000a848f0399709f49b81739e1ce9ffc3a51a8)
+
+*fart noises*
+
+Overview
+
+In general, all stock indicators boil down to two things - reversion to the mean and momentum. Every trader wants to accurately predict these two forces better than other guy, and if you use different indicators than the other guy, that an give you an 'alpha' in trading if it's a better predictor.
+
+I make a lot of different indicators, but the two primary ones are the Delta Neutral and Gamma Neutral:
+
+-   Delta Neutral (DN) - This helps identify reversion to the mean, and represents the underlying price that would create a total market delta of 0 across all GME options (all expiration dates) for a given date. In general, it acts like a floor to the underlying price, but if the price drops below the delta neutral, then it tends to shoot back up above that line.
+
+    -   This is generally how I trade my model. I watch for stocks that drop below the DN, and buy them, expecting for traders to identify that the stock is underpriced and will revert back to a higher level.
+
+-   Gamma Neutral (GN) and Gamma Maximum (GM) - This helps identify momentum. The GN represents the underlying price that would create a total market gamma of 0 across all GME options (all expiration dates) for a given date, whereas the GM represents the underlying price that would create the maximum gamma across the market.
+
+    -   In general, a sudden increase in gamma indicates a sharp upward in momentum that continues until that gamma drops.
+
+    -   The GM seems to act like a ceiling, but fun things happen when the underlying crossing that threshold!
+
+This is my own personal 'alpha' that I developed for my own trading purposes, and am sharing with this community because it's given me back so much. This is not financial advice. I'm just a mathematician that likes to play with options data, and I am not a professional trader.
+
+*Methodology and Assumptions*
+
+Delta Neutral
+
+The Delta Neutral price that creates a total market delta of 0 across all GME options (all expiration dates) for a given date. It can also be though of as the intersection of a supply/demand curve for hedged stocks. See the "Methodology and Assumptions" section for full detail on how I develop this indicator.
+
+Notes below for general options on how the delta neutral interacts with the underlying price:
+
+-   There is a large influx of call option purchases, because:
+
+    -   The call prices get less expensive as the underlying price approaches the delta neutral
+
+    -   Stock prices usually rebound/revert back to the mean after large crashes, so the price often rebounds anyways.
+
+-   With the large influx of call volume, market makers have to start buying stocks to delta hedge, which turns the price back around and creates an upward trajectory.
+
+    -   Important note that hedgies often hedge with derivatives instead of buying stocks, so there isn't a 1-to-1 relationship between the delta and shares bought/sold by hedge funds.
+
+-   Historically, you can see that GME often bounces off the delta neutral prices during drops. The exception is the February drop. When the underlying goes below the delta neutral price, a lot of pressure builds up that results in a significant increase when that pressure is released.
+
+    -   Note this is the primary way that I trade my model. I made a scanner that looks for equities that fall below the delta neutral.
+
+Gamma Neutral
+
+The Gamma Neutral price that creates a total market gamma of 0 across all GME options (all expiration dates) for a given date. See the "Methodology and Assumptions" section for full detail on how I develop this indicator.
+
+General notes below for observations on how this indicator behaves:
+
+-   It acts like support/resistance between the delta neutral and the underlying, and typically bounces around between the two prices for most symbols (like we have seen with GME since April).
+
+-   It also goes crazy in periods of high volatility, as you can see by the very higher spikes.
+
+-   A gamma spike indicates the presence of POTENTAILLY slippery option market conditions, which COULD lead to a gamma squeeze. There were certainly spikes present back in January, but we had a few one-day false starts this last month.
+
+-   They are often triggered by high price movement in a day, which can lead to continue high growth if underlying volume supports it.
+
+-   Gamma spikes can also be triggered by unusual options purchases during the day. These are the one ones to find, because you can often catch the high increase waves before they actually start.
+
+-   If I'm trading this indicator, I often either wait for a gamma spike to continue for 2 days in a row and supported by increased volume. Otherwise, I invest straight away if I find a gamma spike just based on options movement (i.e. no significant underlying increase yet).
+
+I write my own algorithms to produce the results above. The following lists some key methodology and assumptions I use:
+
+-   I rely on daily options and stock summaries produced by [www.historicaloptionsdata.com](http://www.historicaloptionsdata.com/)
+
+-   For the Implied Volatility (IV), I use the following method:
+
+    -   Calculate the raw IV of the mid-point between bid/ask price at close.
+
+    -   Calculate a "blend" IV, which represents the IV where the call/put parity holds, i.e. where call delta -- put delta = 1, using the same IV.
+
+    -   Smooth the mid-point call/put and blend IV using a gaussian smoothing algorithm with a 20-strike window.
+
+    -   Apply the smoothed call/put relativities to the smoothed blended IV curve
+
+    -   Fill any missing values with a linear interpolation of the neighboring strikes.
+
+-   Using the final call/put IV estimates described above, I calculate my own Greeks. I like this source if you're interested in the formulas: <https://www.macroption.com/option-greeks-excel>
+
+-   For the total market delta and total market gamma, I rely on the OI x delta and OI x gamma for each strike price.
+
+    -   Note that the delta of a call is usually equal to (1 - put delta), so not adjustment is needed to the delta signs when calculating the total market delta.
+
+    -   However, the call/put gammas are both positive based on the B-S calculation. If you're calculating the total gamma for a portfolio, or the total market, you have to add the call gamma and subtract the put gamma.
+
+-   To estimate the delta neutral and the gamma neutral, I have an algorithm that relies on the optimization toolbox in Matlab to identify an underlying price that achieve a total market delta and a total market gamma.
+
+-   Note that the IV would change with higher/lower prices for the delta/gamma neutral and the sensitivity tests, but the impact is not significant enough to make a meaningful difference and takes significant processing time to apply the IV curves. However, it is an important simplifying assumption to be aware of.
+
+-   Open Interest (OI) is always lagged one day for options summaries. The OCC releases final open interest on a given day, and it represents the OI for the close of the prior day. Therefore, the OI I get in my summaries on 6/28 does not represent the OI as of close on 6/28. It represents the OI as of close on 6/25. If you see a source like Yahoo give live OI throughout the day, they are only estimates, and their algorithm methodology for estimating the OI based on various price/volume movement is a closely guarded secret. Using the prior day OI is currently a limitation of the data available to me.
+
+TLDR: My read of several indicators (both contained in this post, and in my model) is we should start seeing some buying pressure this week, most likely in the option settlement period (Tuesday - Thursday), which will start us on a steady incline upwards.

DD/Delta-Neutral-Updates-by-yelyah2/2021-07-14-Delta-Neutral-Update.md

@@ -0,0 +1,68 @@
+Delta Neutral Update
+====================
+
+| Author       | Source       | 
+| :-------------: |:-------------:|
+|  [u/yelyah2](https://www.reddit.com/user/yelyah2/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/okfg08/delta_neutral_update/) | 
+
+---
+
+[Possible DD 👨‍🔬](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22Possible%20DD%20%F0%9F%91%A8%E2%80%8D%F0%9F%94%AC%22&restrict_sr=1)
+
+I know today was a rough day, but wanted to share a quick update of what I'm seeing with my indicators for those that are interested.
+
+[Prior post if you need help on terminology/methods/assumptions](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/ojevhv/knock_knock_knockin_on_delta_neutrals_door/)
+
+[Example of the sub DN life cycle](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/ok4chd/special_edition_down_under_the_delta_neutral/)
+
+Updated chart below:
+
+[![r/Superstonk - Delta Neutral Update](https://preview.redd.it/c3hc9pw249b71.png?width=910&format=png&auto=webp&s=2522625750a354aa817aa5a25b06e722a3dc0fe6)](https://preview.redd.it/c3hc9pw249b71.png?width=910&format=png&auto=webp&s=2522625750a354aa817aa5a25b06e722a3dc0fe6)
+
+GME 1/4/2021 - 7/14/2021
+
+Quick notes:
+
+-   Today was obviously a bad day, and continued the downward trajectory
+
+-   The start of the downward trend for the DN is not an optimistic indicator for an immediate turn-around. It shows that the options buying/selling/hedging is supporting the underlying's decrease.
+
+-   OTM Put IV increased relative to the ATM Call IV, indicating buying pressure for OTM puts, indicating a bearish bias on the options side.
+
+-   The OTM Put IV increase is also supported by relatively high put volume today (54%), compared to the normal 30% - 40% puts. The increase in put purchases also helps drive the price down.
+
+-   The good news is the 30-day ATM IV tanked for calls, dropping from ~1.3 yesterday to 1.09 today, and came with a 50% discount on those 30-day ATM call prices.
+
+My best guess is GME will continue to decrease until the put buying pressure wears off and the stock stabilizes. At that point, I expect an influx of call buyers tempted by the discount we're starting, which will help create buying pressure/a reversal.
+
+I thought I would quickly show a few other stocks that made trips below the DN:
+
+[![r/Superstonk - Delta Neutral Update](https://preview.redd.it/m294wci469b71.png?width=910&format=png&auto=webp&s=d721c37f86e85ceaebac67399d59091fed2152c4)](https://preview.redd.it/m294wci469b71.png?width=910&format=png&auto=webp&s=d721c37f86e85ceaebac67399d59091fed2152c4)
+
+TSLA 2/5/2020 - 6/28/2021
+
+Here, the pandemic slump sent TSLA down below the DN, and its drop was supported by a decrease in the DN, so it took time for TSLA to recover.
+
+[![r/Superstonk - Delta Neutral Update](https://preview.redd.it/jr3gaepg69b71.png?width=910&format=png&auto=webp&s=14ff90ce334bc853e2873f402674e8a03f29f9f4)](https://preview.redd.it/jr3gaepg69b71.png?width=910&format=png&auto=webp&s=14ff90ce334bc853e2873f402674e8a03f29f9f4)
+
+ZM 2/5/2020 - 6/28/2021
+
+ZM obviously didn't have a pandemic slump, and it may have briefly passed below the DN before bouncing back on its trajectory upwards, but as it decreased, and was supported by the DN decrease, the priced bounced beneath the DN during the decrease, until the DN finally supported the increase in June.
+
+Now a few examples where the DN held relatively steady while the price dipped beneath, and helped the price bounce back quickly:
+
+[![r/Superstonk - Delta Neutral Update](https://preview.redd.it/jlglhlbg89b71.png?width=910&format=png&auto=webp&s=ac1f52daee86b545bd03a017dba99eec6ddb9baa)](https://preview.redd.it/jlglhlbg89b71.png?width=910&format=png&auto=webp&s=ac1f52daee86b545bd03a017dba99eec6ddb9baa)
+
+AMD 2/5/2020 - 6/28/2021
+
+[![r/Superstonk - Delta Neutral Update](https://preview.redd.it/50e0mfw289b71.png?width=910&format=png&auto=webp&s=2365452ae4da3cf849cf4c68b9e01d05bc134d61)](https://preview.redd.it/50e0mfw289b71.png?width=910&format=png&auto=webp&s=2365452ae4da3cf849cf4c68b9e01d05bc134d61)
+
+CAT 2/5/2020 - 6/28/2021
+
+[![r/Superstonk - Delta Neutral Update](https://preview.redd.it/s9by02t789b71.png?width=910&format=png&auto=webp&s=2bdf52e1aed2bd6a911f3cfa91202cc4cf2f4337)](https://preview.redd.it/s9by02t789b71.png?width=910&format=png&auto=webp&s=2bdf52e1aed2bd6a911f3cfa91202cc4cf2f4337)
+
+CHWY 2/5/2020 - 6/28/2021
+
+TLDR: GME could continue its downward trajectory, and my indicators are showing SLIGHT support for that drop, but the slope is very small (3% decrease in the DN this week and a 4% decrease in the Max Gamma). There are good indicators that option buyers will be tempted by the current discounted call options, but my guess is they will wait for the price to stabilize before jumping in. We'll probably have at least one flat trading day before we see investors coming back in.
+
+*Disclaimer: I'm just a mathematician that likes to play with options data and builds models to trade for a hobby. I have no experience trading professionally or offering any advice to anyone. This is just one indicator for one type of price movement, and there are many other indicators that can help you make investment decisions.*

DD/Delta-Neutral-Updates-by-yelyah2/2021-07-14-Special-Edition-Down-Under-the-Delta-Neutral.md

@@ -0,0 +1,286 @@
+Special Edition: Down Under the Delta Neutral
+=============================================
+
+| Author       | Source       | 
+| :-------------: |:-------------:|
+|  [u/yelyah2](https://www.reddit.com/user/yelyah2/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/ok4chd/special_edition_down_under_the_delta_neutral/) | 
+
+---
+
+[Possible DD 👨‍🔬](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22Possible%20DD%20%F0%9F%91%A8%E2%80%8D%F0%9F%94%AC%22&restrict_sr=1)
+
+Here we go, here we go! We are under the Delta Neutral (DN).... I repeat... we are under the Delta Neutral...
+
+This is where I trade this indicator, and we are in my world now.... the Upside Down DN World....
+
+[![r/Superstonk - Special Edition: Down Under the Delta Neutral](https://preview.redd.it/7cylj5x1k6b71.png?width=1195&format=png&auto=webp&s=ff5babd2fac7b7b66abf0a416ca2e2484c10f7f4)](https://preview.redd.it/7cylj5x1k6b71.png?width=1195&format=png&auto=webp&s=ff5babd2fac7b7b66abf0a416ca2e2484c10f7f4)
+
+do do doooo.....
+
+I've been showing you the log-based 10 graphs lately, because nothing super exciting has been happening, but here's a graph showing the DN up close and personal, showing we closed under the DN yesterday!
+
+[![r/Superstonk - Special Edition: Down Under the Delta Neutral](https://preview.redd.it/9ftbjem0k6b71.png?width=910&format=png&auto=webp&s=0916d523cf593eaf2737a62a5f8e8155e0ec4270)](https://preview.redd.it/9ftbjem0k6b71.png?width=910&format=png&auto=webp&s=0916d523cf593eaf2737a62a5f8e8155e0ec4270)
+
+GME 1/6/2021 - 7/13/2021
+
+For Part I of this post, let me take you all the way back to FEBRUARY 2021.... the last time it happened...
+
+PART 1 - THE FEBRUARY TRIP BELOW
+
+It was a dark time... money lost... sanity drained... FUD everywhere... We all clung onto our hopes, DD, and each other. We all have our memories of that time long ago, and mine are held through the lens of the DN World.
+
+Let's see what happened:
+
+-   First, the price tanks. Pick your reason why. We aren't covering that now.
+
+-   As the price tanks, hedgies are selling off loads of shares based on their OI, and helping the price continue to drop hard.
+
+-   As the price drops below the delta neutral, the IV is suppressed very quickly, as shown in the graph below. It also tanks from ~10.0 to bouncing around 1.0-3.0 within a WEEK
+
+    -   Check what happens when the price tanks in March. The IV has an initial spike, the settled into a 2.0-4.0 range for FIVE weeks before settling down further.
+
+[![r/Superstonk - Special Edition: Down Under the Delta Neutral](https://preview.redd.it/vonx8y6zj6b71.png?width=910&format=png&auto=webp&s=278e95650859b24575f3a813ca324a89b8852849)](https://preview.redd.it/vonx8y6zj6b71.png?width=910&format=png&auto=webp&s=278e95650859b24575f3a813ca324a89b8852849)
+
+GME 1/4/2021 - 7/13/2021
+
+-   The IV also tanks under the DN, and ATM prices suddenly go on discount. The 30-day ATM prices go from $130-$155 at the peak (~40% of Underlying Price), to $6-$11 by 2/5 (~10% of Underlying Price).
+
+-   Call Prices are often lower than Put Prices at this time. Call prices look tasty to investors, because... STONKS GO UP! This is why stocks generally sit on top of the delta neutral. There are generally more call buyers than put buyers.
+
+Quick palette cleanser before we move on?
+
+[![r/Superstonk - Special Edition: Down Under the Delta Neutral](https://preview.redd.it/qvbe41sxj6b71.png?width=656&format=png&auto=webp&s=8a659858dc3d25f1eb699a17dd7bedf8399b22fc)](https://preview.redd.it/qvbe41sxj6b71.png?width=656&format=png&auto=webp&s=8a659858dc3d25f1eb699a17dd7bedf8399b22fc)
+
+yummmm
+
+Ok, let's continue....
+
+-   By the crash, the put OI is monstrously huge. I know there's a lot of debate around this right now. My personal opinion is it's a mix of the following:
+
+    -   Come on.... the price went from ~$10 to almost $500 in a couple of months. People thought this thing was going to crash back down after it squeezed. It was a safe bet to buy puts on it. Not everything against GME is nefarious...
+
+    -   I said not EVERYTHING.... There is some craaazy OTM put volume/OI during the January squeeze, that correspond to increase in those put prices, and the volume / OI ratio is waaaayy high. Again... personal conjecture here... but what if Citadel HF was selling those puts to Citadel MM, and Citadel MM executed their OTM positions, effectively forfeiting their premium. What does this do? It allows Citadel MM to give a cash injection to Citadel HF on the open market, gets around their firewall separating the two entities, and can take advantage of Citadel MM special privileges.
+
+    -   I've heard all kinds of theories on other strategies for those OTM put OI's, and for me, it always comes back to: * No, they're not going to do any strategy that involves buying a ton of stocks (*cough* married puts *cough*), because the point is they shorted it a ton, the stocks are hard to come by, and it's really expensive to do. * Who's buying those teeny Puts? There are a lot of reasons someone would want to sell those puts, which is what most explanation boils down to. Hell.... I'd love for someone to buy a load of $0.50 puts from me, but seriously... who's buying them? That's how I came to the theory above. * Feel like there's going to be some fights over this, but let's be honest... no one actually knows the answer to this question, it's all theories at this point.
+
+-   The Call OI has now dropped from 47% on 1/22 to 14% by 2/1. However, once the price drops under the DN, the Call OI starts building up fast, as in 35% - 66% increases within each week, while the put OI only increases around 0% - 2% each week, which makes the Call OI bangs up to 25% by the February bounce.
+
+Ready to find out what that fast build-up of Call OI did?
+
+or do you want another palette cleanser?
+
+[![r/Superstonk - Special Edition: Down Under the Delta Neutral](https://preview.redd.it/wbzkwf9wj6b71.png?width=760&format=png&auto=webp&s=e0f5ac2937910087161c4c02f84440736752e0bd)](https://preview.redd.it/wbzkwf9wj6b71.png?width=760&format=png&auto=webp&s=e0f5ac2937910087161c4c02f84440736752e0bd)
+
+raaaawwwrrr
+
+Sorry... those come with the territory....
+
+-   Ok, so as all those people are buying up calls, the total market delta is going up, and hedgies are buying up more and more stocks because of it.
+
+    -   If you recall a few posts ago, I talked to you about the build-up of the total market delta. If you don't remember, [here's my post](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/o9qb4n/delta_neutral_update_any_meaningful_underlying/), or check the bottom for the details.
+
+The graph below summaries the total market delta share equivalents (dark blue) versus the underlying close price (green).
+
+[![r/Superstonk - Special Edition: Down Under the Delta Neutral](https://preview.redd.it/vqfw7iuuj6b71.png?width=909&format=png&auto=webp&s=d81c3c58fe8eb0b3681407952987199d6bc330f3)](https://preview.redd.it/vqfw7iuuj6b71.png?width=909&format=png&auto=webp&s=d81c3c58fe8eb0b3681407952987199d6bc330f3)
+
+GME Total Market Delta Share Equivalent versus Underlying Close
+
+You'll notice that total market delta increased significantly BEFORE the January and February/March squeezes. This helped to contribute to the buying pressure to push GME upwards.
+
+Ohhh and who do we have here? It's our good friend, GAMMA!!
+
+High ATM Gamma Factors makes everything nice and squeezy. Those factors increase right before significant increases, as shown in the table below.
+
+[![r/Superstonk - Special Edition: Down Under the Delta Neutral](https://preview.redd.it/hwhh2hbtj6b71.png?width=910&format=png&auto=webp&s=86f8529521c1bf8ed2ce170fd349bf62618af04a)](https://preview.redd.it/hwhh2hbtj6b71.png?width=910&format=png&auto=webp&s=86f8529521c1bf8ed2ce170fd349bf62618af04a)
+
+GME Close/DN/ATM Gamma Factors
+
+Then once the Underlying Close Price hits the Gamma Maximum point and...
+
+[![r/Superstonk - Special Edition: Down Under the Delta Neutral](https://preview.redd.it/c8nc9y4pj6b71.png?width=2598&format=png&auto=webp&s=3f2a8b7c1074a129bc4c912dbe0bcec665471779)](https://preview.redd.it/c8nc9y4pj6b71.png?width=2598&format=png&auto=webp&s=3f2a8b7c1074a129bc4c912dbe0bcec665471779)
+
+BOOOOMMM!!!
+
+Ok, so all kinds of things happened in February, but I wanted to walk you through the general Life Cycle of stocks under the DN, using GME as an example.
+
+TLDR - Part 1:
+
+The life cycle of a stock under the DN generally consists of the following parts:
+
+-   Underlying price drops below the DN
+
+-   IV decreases
+
+-   Call/Put prices decrease
+
+-   Stock price just dropped + stonks go up + calls look tasty = higher call buying
+
+-   Options sellers buy up stocks to hedge
+
+-   If you're lucky, your good friend Gamma shows up
+
+-   Bing, bang, boom, you're back over the DN.
+
+PART 2 - STARTING THE JOURNEY BELOW
+
+As we start on this adventure below the DN together, just remember that we are in this together and to always pay the ferryman.
+
+Let's quickly remind ourselves what's happening now:
+
+[![r/Superstonk - Special Edition: Down Under the Delta Neutral](https://preview.redd.it/yttusvynj6b71.png?width=910&format=png&auto=webp&s=dbd870b866a4c302612bd3bce967c6c9f1a7e9fe)](https://preview.redd.it/yttusvynj6b71.png?width=910&format=png&auto=webp&s=dbd870b866a4c302612bd3bce967c6c9f1a7e9fe)
+
+-   The price closed at $180.06 yesterday, compared to the DN of $188.
+
+-   The ATM put volatility dropped from 1.2 to 1.09 (lowest since 5/11), and I suspect the ATM call volatility will follow soon.
+
+-   The ATM option prices dropped around 5% today
+
+-   The total market delta equivalent shares is dropping with the price, and accelerating the drop as option sellers and selling off more and more shares
+
+-   The ATM gamma factor is low right now, and nothing particularly interesting is going on with the other gamma indicators
+
+How long will this take?
+
+-   Retail could storm in at pre-market and buy the dip to bring it out straight away, and it would have nothing to do with these indicators.
+
+-   If hedging controls the volume, then it usually reverses in 1-3 days. When I trade this indicator, I plan for returns to be worth holding for 2 weeks.
+
+-   It is not common for stocks to sit under the DN for as long as GME did back in February, but we all know GME is a special one!
+
+Watch the following to signal a reversal:
+
+-   A drop in IV/option premiums
+
+-   High call % volume/OI
+
+-   I'll be watching the other indicators, and will report anything interesting
+
+[![r/Superstonk - Special Edition: Down Under the Delta Neutral](https://preview.redd.it/2telmucmj6b71.png?width=533&format=png&auto=webp&s=d8566faa09d186ce9b64db87c8a9f021a2a575eb)](https://preview.redd.it/2telmucmj6b71.png?width=533&format=png&auto=webp&s=d8566faa09d186ce9b64db87c8a9f021a2a575eb)
+
+To the moon for us all!
+
+TLDR - Part 2:
+
+-   Hold tight
+
+-   This part is fun
+
+-   Watch options if you want
+
+*Now it's time to tell you all the boring stuff....*
+
+[![r/Superstonk - Special Edition: Down Under the Delta Neutral](https://preview.redd.it/bm1l5jikj6b71.png?width=1200&format=png&auto=webp&s=9a704e70bacf00d1f0fafeb6f144a1faf56b47fd)](https://preview.redd.it/bm1l5jikj6b71.png?width=1200&format=png&auto=webp&s=9a704e70bacf00d1f0fafeb6f144a1faf56b47fd)
+
+wah waahhhh
+
+Overview
+
+In general, all stock indicators boil down to two things - reversion to the mean and momentum. Every trader wants to accurately predict these two forces better than other guy, and if you use different indicators than the other guy, that an give you an 'alpha' in trading if it's a better predictor.
+
+I make a lot of different indicators, but the two primary ones are the Delta Neutral and Gamma Neutral:
+
+-   Delta Neutral (DN) - This helps identify reversion to the mean, and represents the underlying price that would create a total market delta of 0 across all GME options (all expiration dates) for a given date. In general, it acts like a floor to the underlying price, but if the price drops below the delta neutral, then it tends to shoot back up above that line.
+
+    -   This is generally how I trade my model. I watch for stocks that drop below the DN, and buy them, expecting for traders to identify that the stock is underpriced and will revert back to a higher level.
+
+-   Gamma Neutral (GN) and Gamma Maximum (GM) - This helps identify momentum. The GN represents the underlying price that would create a total market gamma of 0 across all GME options (all expiration dates) for a given date, whereas the GM represents the underlying price that would create the maximum gamma across the market.
+
+    -   In general, a sudden increase in gamma indicates a sharp upward in momentum that continues until that gamma drops.
+
+    -   The GM seems to act like a ceiling, but fun things happen when the underlying crossing that threshold!
+
+This is my own personal 'alpha' that I developed for my own trading purposes, and am sharing with this community because it's given me back so much. This is not financial advice. I'm just a mathematician that likes to play with options data, and I am not a professional trader.
+
+*Methodology and Assumptions*
+
+Delta
+
+The Delta of an option represents the expected change to an option's price based on a $1 change in the security's underlying price. For example, if the GME underlying price is at $100,000,000 and a GME $102,000,000 strike call has a delta of 0.2, then that call option price will increase by $0.2 if the GME underlying price moves up to $100,000,001. Note that the price is also affected by gamma so will actually be higher than the $0.2 price increase estimated by delta, which will be covered later.
+
+Delta hedging is a trading strategy employed by market makers (MM's) to minimalize the directional risk associated with price movements in the underlying security. Traditionally, you can think of a MM buying 20 (0.2 x 100) stocks of the underlying security if the price increases by $1 (using the example above). However, it's important to note that hedge funds often use other derivatives to hedge, not just buying/selling stocks because it requires less capital to do so. However, these indicators can be used as a directional proxy for some of the MM behavior as the underlying price increases/decreases.
+
+The total market delta share equivalent represents the sum of delta x OI across all strikes/expiration prices in a given trading day. I will say it one more time, hedge funds are not actually holding this number of shares on a given day to hedge. They often hedge with other market derivatives. However, it can give us an indicator for hedge funds buying/selling underlying equity relativities.
+
+Delta Neutral
+
+The Delta Neutral price that creates a total market delta of 0 across all GME options (all expiration dates) for a given date. It can also be though of as the intersection of a supply/demand curve for hedged stocks. See the "Methodology and Assumptions" section for full detail on how I develop this indicator.
+
+Notes below for general options on how the delta neutral interacts with the underlying price:
+
+-   There is a large influx of call option purchases, because:
+
+    -   The call prices get less expensive as the underlying price approaches the delta neutral
+
+    -   Stock prices usually rebound/revert back to the mean after large crashes, so the price often rebounds anyways.
+
+-   With the large influx of call volume, market makers have to start buying stocks to delta hedge, which turns the price back around and creates an upward trajectory.
+
+    -   Important note that hedgies often hedge with derivatives instead of buying stocks, so there isn't a 1-to-1 relationship between the delta and shares bought/sold by hedge funds.
+
+-   Historically, you can see that GME often bounces off the delta neutral prices during drops. The exception is the February drop. When the underlying goes below the delta neutral price, a lot of pressure builds up that results in a significant increase when that pressure is released.
+
+    -   Note this is the primary way that I trade my model. I made a scanner that looks for equities that fall below the delta neutral.
+
+Gamma
+
+The Gamma of an option represents the rate of change of the Delta of an option with respect to a $1 underlying price movement. From our example above, if the GME underlying price is at $100,000,000 and a GME $102,000,000 strike call has a delta of 0.2 and a gamma of 0.05, then that call option price would actually increase by $0.25 (0.2 + 0.05) if the GME underlying price moves up to $100,000,001.
+
+MM also hedge against gamma risk, but the impact of buying/selling securities to hedge is often much lower than the impact of delta hedging (also remember that they use derivatives to hedge too). However, you are probably familiar with gamma because of the "gamma squeeze" that happened back in January. A gamma squeeze happens when the underlying stock price begins to go up very quickly in a short period of time. This forces more buying activity from rapidly increasing deltas/hedging, which continues to inflate the price.
+
+Gamma Neutral/Maximum
+
+The Gamma Neutral price that creates a total market gamma of 0 across all GME options (all expiration dates) for a given date. The Gamma Maximum price creates the maximum total market gamma across all GME options.
+
+General notes below for observations on how the Gamma Neutral indicator behaves:
+
+-   It acts like support/resistance between the delta neutral and the underlying, and typically bounces around between the two prices for most symbols (like we have seen with GME since April).
+
+-   It also goes crazy in periods of high volatility, as you can see by the very higher spikes.
+
+-   A gamma spike indicates the presence of POTENTAILLY slippery option market conditions, which COULD lead to a gamma squeeze. There were certainly spikes present back in January, but we had a few one-day false starts this last month.
+
+-   They are often triggered by high price movement in a day, which can lead to continue high growth if underlying volume supports it.
+
+-   Gamma spikes can also be triggered by unusual options purchases during the day. These are the one ones to find, because you can often catch the high increase waves before they actually start.
+
+-   If I'm trading this indicator, I often either wait for a gamma spike to continue for 2 days in a row and supported by increased volume. Otherwise, I invest straight away if I find a gamma spike just based on options movement (i.e. no significant underlying increase yet).
+
+General notes below for observations on how the Gamma Maximum indicator behaves:
+
+-   It generally acts like a ceiling for the underlying stock value
+
+-   However, when the stock breaks through the gamma maximum, fun things happen!
+
+Methodology
+
+I write my own algorithms to produce the results above. The following lists some key methodology and assumptions I use:
+
+-   I rely on daily options and stock summaries produced by [www.historicaloptionsdata.com](http://www.historicaloptionsdata.com/)
+
+-   For the Implied Volatility (IV), I use the following method:
+
+    -   Calculate the raw IV of the mid-point between bid/ask price at close.
+
+    -   Calculate a "blend" IV, which represents the IV where the call/put parity holds, i.e. where call delta -- put delta = 1, using the same IV.
+
+    -   Smooth the mid-point call/put and blend IV using a gaussian smoothing algorithm with a 20-strike window.
+
+    -   Apply the smoothed call/put relativities to the smoothed blended IV curve
+
+    -   Fill any missing values with a linear interpolation of the neighboring strikes.
+
+-   Using the final call/put IV estimates described above, I calculate my own Greeks. I like this source if you're interested in the formulas: <https://www.macroption.com/option-greeks-excel>
+
+-   For the total market delta and total market gamma, I rely on the OI x delta and OI x gamma for each strike price.
+
+    -   Note that the delta of a call is usually equal to (1 - put delta), so not adjustment is needed to the delta signs when calculating the total market delta.
+
+    -   However, the call/put gammas are both positive based on the B-S calculation. If you're calculating the total gamma for a portfolio, or the total market, you have to add the call gamma and subtract the put gamma.
+
+-   To estimate the delta neutral and the gamma neutral, I have an algorithm that relies on the optimization toolbox in Matlab to identify an underlying price that achieve a total market delta and a total market gamma.
+
+-   Note that the IV would change with higher/lower prices for the delta/gamma neutral and the sensitivity tests, but the impact is not significant enough to make a meaningful difference and takes significant processing time to apply the IV curves. However, it is an important simplifying assumption to be aware of.
+
+-   Open Interest (OI) is always lagged one day for options summaries. The OCC releases final open interest on a given day, and it represents the OI for the close of the prior day. Therefore, the OI I get in my summaries on 6/28 does not represent the OI as of close on 6/28. It represents the OI as of close on 6/25. If you see a source like Yahoo give live OI throughout the day, they are only estimates, and their algorithm methodology for estimating the OI based on various price/volume movement is a closely guarded secret. Using the prior day OI is currently a limitation of the data available to me.
+
+*Disclaimer: With the recent debate on the sub, I've decided to label my posts as "Possible DD" until someone is able to peer review my work, and independently replicate it. So far, my only proof has been how it works in the field, which means it should not be blindly taken as truth. I think every writer should hold themselves to their own standards, and no one else's. Every aspect of my work is peer reviewed in real life, so this is my own standard. It's also the responsibility of every reader to judge the quality of content they read, and don't take anything at face value. To the moon for us all!*

DD/Delta-Neutral-Updates-by-yelyah2/2021-07-20-Delta-Neutral-Update-Coming-up-for-Air.md

@@ -0,0 +1,164 @@
+Delta Neutral Update: Coming up for Air!
+========================================
+
+| Author       | Source       | 
+| :-------------: |:-------------:|
+|  [u/yelyah2](https://www.reddit.com/user/yelyah2/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/oo5c7t/delta_neutral_update_coming_up_for_air/) | 
+
+---
+
+[Possible DD 👨‍🔬](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22Possible%20DD%20%F0%9F%91%A8%E2%80%8D%F0%9F%94%AC%22&restrict_sr=1)
+
+All - it looks like this could've been a quick trip underneath the Delta Neutral.
+
+TLDR: Brace yourself for the possibility of hitting the $184 DN mark a couple times before it rebounds back over the DN.
+
+*Delta/Gamma Neutral Graphs*
+
+Here's an update to my graph showing the Close Price (green), delta neutral (blue), gamma neutral (orange) and gamma maximum (red). Log-based 10 scale below so you can see the gamma spikes in all their glory!
+
+[![r/Superstonk - Delta Neutral Update: Coming up for Air!](https://preview.redd.it/0wrvx6fa3ec71.png?width=910&format=png&auto=webp&s=a46bb78da6a63bb09c17d5c0959697386858693e)](https://preview.redd.it/0wrvx6fa3ec71.png?width=910&format=png&auto=webp&s=a46bb78da6a63bb09c17d5c0959697386858693e)
+
+GME 1/4/2021 - 7/19/2021
+
+Log based 10 scale to give you a high-level overview
+
+[![r/Superstonk - Delta Neutral Update: Coming up for Air!](https://preview.redd.it/nyhliedc3ec71.png?width=910&format=png&auto=webp&s=635ff082bad8e984c2e0ff66efb13e612a24ef53)](https://preview.redd.it/nyhliedc3ec71.png?width=910&format=png&auto=webp&s=635ff082bad8e984c2e0ff66efb13e612a24ef53)
+
+GME 1/4/2021 - 7/19/2021 - Log Based 10
+
+Quick Background
+
+My work is built on the idea that the market is largely unpredictable, but one particular kind of behavior is certain - hedgies gonna hedge. It's written into their algorithms. Specifically, they like to delta hedge and gamma hedge. This work tries to profit on this one particular type of buying/selling behavior. If you're lost, please refer to the detailed data dictionary, methodology and assumptions section at the bottom.
+
+Quick Notes
+
+Key Points:
+
+-   The Delta Neutral (DN) is currently at $184.
+
+-   Last February, GME was deep under the DN for a couple weeks, which built up a lot of pressure and contributed to its rebound upwards.
+
+-   This trip under the DN only lasted a couple days, so the rebound may not be as violent.
+
+-   I also want to warn you that it may tap against $184 a couple times before rebounding. A few examples below.
+
+As you can see for Roku below, the underlying close (green) had definitive rebounds back above the DN (dark blue) in March/April, but in May, you can see that it tapped against its DN three times before pushing over.
+
+[![r/Superstonk - Delta Neutral Update: Coming up for Air!](https://preview.redd.it/q13ak3jz4ec71.png?width=910&format=png&auto=webp&s=f59022d187c8e1cab9892e6ef7a89c8d5b9f22f7)](https://preview.redd.it/q13ak3jz4ec71.png?width=910&format=png&auto=webp&s=f59022d187c8e1cab9892e6ef7a89c8d5b9f22f7)
+
+ROKU 1/4/2021 - 6/17/2021
+
+Hard to say what the secret ingredient is for what exactly contributes to the definitive push over the DN versus a couple tests first, but it's likely just some good ol' fashion momentum.
+
+Here's hoping we decisively push through today!
+
+Here are a couple options tid-bits for you before I sign off:
+
+-   The 7/16 expirations did help with the call %, which currently sits at 26%, compared to 25% on 2/16 and 22% last Monday.
+
+-   The key part here is the comparison to last Monday, because historically call buyers have been predominately buying cheaper calls for the next expiration date, hoping to get lucky and catch the next MOASS, so historically, there is a big drop in call % between Mondays/Friday, then slowly builds-up during the week.
+
+-   We haven't had a Monday call % this high since 1/25!! That Monday had a 37% call OI, so were not quite at the same level now.
+
+-   Yesterday, 69% of all volume was for this next expiration date, and 64% of that volume were for calls, so hoping we push the call OI up!
+
+-   GME IV/prices are still relatively cheap, so hoping that will lead to more call buyers
+
+-   The overall put IV is still higher than the call IV, indicating higher put buying pressure
+
+-   Similarly, the OTM put IV (-0.25 delta) is still higher than the ATM call IV (0.5 delta), which indicates higher OTM buying pressure, so we're not out of the woods yet.
+
+-   I've seen a lot of talk about gamma squeezes, and I don't think we're anywhere close to one. Last January, the ATM gamma was between 0.07 - 0.18 prior to the squeeze. Last Friday, we were at 0.0004, and there was an uptick up to 0.02 yesterday. We'll see if the upward trend continues.
+
+TLDR: Brace yourself for the possibility of hitting the $184 DN mark a couple times before it rebounds back over the DN.
+
+Overview
+
+In general, all stock indicators boil down to two things - reversion to the mean and momentum. Every trader wants to accurately predict these two forces better than other guy, and if you use different indicators than the other guy, that an give you an 'alpha' in trading if it's a better predictor.
+
+I make a lot of different indicators, but the two primary ones are the Delta Neutral and Gamma Neutral:
+
+-   Delta Neutral (DN) - This helps identify reversion to the mean, and represents the underlying price that would create a total market delta of 0 across all GME options (all expiration dates) for a given date. In general, it acts like a floor to the underlying price, but if the price drops below the delta neutral, then it tends to shoot back up above that line.
+
+    -   This is generally how I trade my model. I watch for stocks that drop below the DN, and buy them, expecting for traders to identify that the stock is underpriced and will revert back to a higher level.
+
+-   Gamma Neutral (GN) and Gamma Maximum (GM) - This helps identify momentum. The GN represents the underlying price that would create a total market gamma of 0 across all GME options (all expiration dates) for a given date, whereas the GM represents the underlying price that would create the maximum gamma across the market.
+
+    -   In general, a sudden increase in gamma indicates a sharp upward in momentum that continues until that gamma drops.
+
+    -   The GM seems to act like a ceiling, but fun things happen when the underlying crossing that threshold!
+
+This is my own personal 'alpha' that I developed for my own trading purposes, and am sharing with this community because it's given me back so much. This is not financial advice. I'm just a mathematician that likes to play with options data, and I am not a professional trader.
+
+*Methodology and Assumptions*
+
+Delta Neutral
+
+The Delta Neutral price that creates a total market delta of 0 across all GME options (all expiration dates) for a given date. It can also be though of as the intersection of a supply/demand curve for hedged stocks. See the "Methodology and Assumptions" section for full detail on how I develop this indicator.
+
+Notes below for general options on how the delta neutral interacts with the underlying price:
+
+-   There is a large influx of call option purchases, because:
+
+    -   The call prices get less expensive as the underlying price approaches the delta neutral
+
+    -   Stock prices usually rebound/revert back to the mean after large crashes, so the price often rebounds anyways.
+
+-   With the large influx of call volume, market makers have to start buying stocks to delta hedge, which turns the price back around and creates an upward trajectory.
+
+    -   Important note that hedgies often hedge with derivatives instead of buying stocks, so there isn't a 1-to-1 relationship between the delta and shares bought/sold by hedge funds.
+
+-   Historically, you can see that GME often bounces off the delta neutral prices during drops. The exception is the February drop. When the underlying goes below the delta neutral price, a lot of pressure builds up that results in a significant increase when that pressure is released.
+
+    -   Note this is the primary way that I trade my model. I made a scanner that looks for equities that fall below the delta neutral.
+
+Gamma Neutral
+
+The Gamma Neutral price that creates a total market gamma of 0 across all GME options (all expiration dates) for a given date. See the "Methodology and Assumptions" section for full detail on how I develop this indicator.
+
+General notes below for observations on how this indicator behaves:
+
+-   It acts like support/resistance between the delta neutral and the underlying, and typically bounces around between the two prices for most symbols (like we have seen with GME since April).
+
+-   It also goes crazy in periods of high volatility, as you can see by the very higher spikes.
+
+-   A gamma spike indicates the presence of POTENTAILLY slippery option market conditions, which COULD lead to a gamma squeeze. There were certainly spikes present back in January, but we had a few one-day false starts this last month.
+
+-   They are often triggered by high price movement in a day, which can lead to continue high growth if underlying volume supports it.
+
+-   Gamma spikes can also be triggered by unusual options purchases during the day. These are the one ones to find, because you can often catch the high increase waves before they actually start.
+
+-   If I'm trading this indicator, I often either wait for a gamma spike to continue for 2 days in a row and supported by increased volume. Otherwise, I invest straight away if I find a gamma spike just based on options movement (i.e. no significant underlying increase yet).
+
+I write my own algorithms to produce the results above. The following lists some key methodology and assumptions I use:
+
+-   I rely on daily options and stock summaries produced by [www.historicaloptionsdata.com](http://www.historicaloptionsdata.com/)
+
+-   For the Implied Volatility (IV), I use the following method:
+
+    -   Calculate the raw IV of the mid-point between bid/ask price at close.
+
+    -   Calculate a "blend" IV, which represents the IV where the call/put parity holds, i.e. where call delta -- put delta = 1, using the same IV.
+
+    -   Smooth the mid-point call/put and blend IV using a gaussian smoothing algorithm with a 20-strike window.
+
+    -   Apply the smoothed call/put relativities to the smoothed blended IV curve
+
+    -   Fill any missing values with a linear interpolation of the neighboring strikes.
+
+-   Using the final call/put IV estimates described above, I calculate my own Greeks. I like this source if you're interested in the formulas: <https://www.macroption.com/option-greeks-excel>
+
+-   For the total market delta and total market gamma, I rely on the OI x delta and OI x gamma for each strike price.
+
+    -   Note that the delta of a call is usually equal to (1 - put delta), so not adjustment is needed to the delta signs when calculating the total market delta.
+
+    -   However, the call/put gammas are both positive based on the B-S calculation. If you're calculating the total gamma for a portfolio, or the total market, you have to add the call gamma and subtract the put gamma.
+
+-   To estimate the delta neutral and the gamma neutral, I have an algorithm that relies on the optimization toolbox in Matlab to identify an underlying price that achieve a total market delta and a total market gamma.
+
+-   Note that the IV would change with higher/lower prices for the delta/gamma neutral and the sensitivity tests, but the impact is not significant enough to make a meaningful difference and takes significant processing time to apply the IV curves. However, it is an important simplifying assumption to be aware of.
+
+-   Open Interest (OI) is always lagged one day for options summaries. The OCC releases final open interest on a given day, and it represents the OI for the close of the prior day. Therefore, the OI I get in my summaries on 6/28 does not represent the OI as of close on 6/28. It represents the OI as of close on 6/25. If you see a source like Yahoo give live OI throughout the day, they are only estimates, and their algorithm methodology for estimating the OI based on various price/volume movement is a closely guarded secret. Using the prior day OI is currently a limitation of the data available to me.
+
+*Disclaimer: I'm just a mathematician that likes to play with options data and builds models to trade for a hobby. I have no experience trading professionally or offering any advice to anyone. This is just one indicator for one type of price movement, and there are many other indicators that can help you make investment decisions.*

DD/Delta-Neutral-Updates-by-yelyah2/2021-07-20-We-Blew-Past-the-Delta-Neutral.md

@@ -0,0 +1,154 @@
+Delta Neutral Update: Blowing Past the DN!
+==========================================
+
+| Author       | Source       | 
+| :-------------: |:-------------:|
+|  [u/yelyah2](https://www.reddit.com/user/yelyah2/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/ooc25b/delta_neutral_update_blowing_past_the_dn/) | 
+
+---
+
+[Possible DD 👨‍🔬](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22Possible%20DD%20%F0%9F%91%A8%E2%80%8D%F0%9F%94%AC%22&restrict_sr=1)
+
+TLDR: We blew past the DN today, and now we have a higher probability of continuing this upward momentum.
+
+Recap:
+
+[On 7/13, I called out that we were about to hit the DN, and it will probably mean we'll bounce off it, like we have in the past.](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/ojevhv/knock_knock_knockin_on_delta_neutrals_door/)
+
+[But we didn't bounce off it, instead we sunk underneath it for the first time since February. I gave an overview of life under the DN.](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/ok4chd/special_edition_down_under_the_delta_neutral/)
+
+[Today, it looked like we would blow past the DN, and I warned that sometimes stocks bounce off it like a ceiling a couple times before going over.](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/oo5c7t/delta_neutral_update_coming_up_for_air/)
+
+Today - I'm happy to report that GME was given a choice.... accept the DN as the ceiling like the weakling or push through it... GME made its choice:
+
+[![r/Superstonk - Delta Neutral Update: Blowing Past the DN!](https://preview.redd.it/9yulxdq7tfc71.png?width=268&format=png&auto=webp&s=3af5256082e71d35391525a3536d082c6625e440)](https://preview.redd.it/9yulxdq7tfc71.png?width=268&format=png&auto=webp&s=3af5256082e71d35391525a3536d082c6625e440)
+
+yessssss......
+
+And to that I say....
+
+[![r/Superstonk - Delta Neutral Update: Blowing Past the DN!](https://preview.redd.it/bm3i1pfetfc71.png?width=537&format=png&auto=webp&s=071c422f39c69fc121b2c1ea9bfd49cb8c563f68)](https://preview.redd.it/bm3i1pfetfc71.png?width=537&format=png&auto=webp&s=071c422f39c69fc121b2c1ea9bfd49cb8c563f68)
+
+Updated graph below, showing the Close Price (green), delta neutral (blue), gamma neutral (orange) and gamma maximum (red). Log-based 10 scale below so you can see the gamma spikes in all their glory!
+
+[![r/Superstonk - Delta Neutral Update: Blowing Past the DN!](https://preview.redd.it/s2vt0oigtfc71.png?width=910&format=png&auto=webp&s=bf4afc39cdaa6adddfa9ef229dfc953a62f7c94f)](https://preview.redd.it/s2vt0oigtfc71.png?width=910&format=png&auto=webp&s=bf4afc39cdaa6adddfa9ef229dfc953a62f7c94f)
+
+GME 1/4/2021 - 7/20/2021
+
+[![r/Superstonk - Delta Neutral Update: Blowing Past the DN!](https://preview.redd.it/pnui6sxwtfc71.png?width=910&format=png&auto=webp&s=b750bbb248fb84e25e04e11f1008ef4f6563403a)](https://preview.redd.it/pnui6sxwtfc71.png?width=910&format=png&auto=webp&s=b750bbb248fb84e25e04e11f1008ef4f6563403a)
+
+GME 1/4/2021 - 7/20/2021 - log based 10
+
+Yes, there is a chance it will go back down, bounce of the DN (currently at $185), go back beneath and start all over. However, there is a higher probability that it will keep going up at this point.
+
+Our next target should be the gamma max point of $241. If we get there, then we should have the max amount of gamma to....
+
+[![r/Superstonk - Delta Neutral Update: Blowing Past the DN!](https://preview.redd.it/tvqppvsoufc71.png?width=1920&format=png&auto=webp&s=bc0ded79f84838e8a0176788f7443f3fc8611869)](https://preview.redd.it/tvqppvsoufc71.png?width=1920&format=png&auto=webp&s=bc0ded79f84838e8a0176788f7443f3fc8611869)
+
+BOOOOOOM!!!
+
+Here are a couple options tid-bits for you before I sign off:
+
+-   The 7/16 expirations did help with the call %, which is currently up to 28%. Highest it's been since 1/26/2021!
+
+-   68% of volume was for calls today, so should help push that call OI higher!
+
+-   GME IV/prices are getting higher, so expecting the options buying to cool off a bit.
+
+-   Note that I don't think we're anywhere close to one until we start approaching the gamma max point (~$240). Last January, the ATM gamma was between 0.07 - 0.18 prior to the squeeze. Last Friday, we were at 0.0004, up to 0.02 yesterday and back down to 0.01 today.
+
+Now it's time for the boring part of our story.....
+
+[![r/Superstonk - Delta Neutral Update: Blowing Past the DN!](https://preview.redd.it/xs87fj3qtfc71.png?width=1284&format=png&auto=webp&s=381b8d2f45c061e51eb8bd1392d961f4c94fec01)](https://preview.redd.it/xs87fj3qtfc71.png?width=1284&format=png&auto=webp&s=381b8d2f45c061e51eb8bd1392d961f4c94fec01)
+
+*yaaawwnn*
+
+Overview
+
+In general, all stock indicators boil down to two things - reversion to the mean and momentum. Every trader wants to accurately predict these two forces better than other guy, and if you use different indicators than the other guy, that an give you an 'alpha' in trading if it's a better predictor.
+
+I make a lot of different indicators, but the two primary ones are the Delta Neutral and Gamma Neutral:
+
+-   Delta Neutral (DN) - This helps identify reversion to the mean, and represents the underlying price that would create a total market delta of 0 across all GME options (all expiration dates) for a given date. In general, it acts like a floor to the underlying price, but if the price drops below the delta neutral, then it tends to shoot back up above that line.
+
+    -   This is generally how I trade my model. I watch for stocks that drop below the DN, and buy them, expecting for traders to identify that the stock is underpriced and will revert back to a higher level.
+
+-   Gamma Neutral (GN) and Gamma Maximum (GM) - This helps identify momentum. The GN represents the underlying price that would create a total market gamma of 0 across all GME options (all expiration dates) for a given date, whereas the GM represents the underlying price that would create the maximum gamma across the market.
+
+    -   In general, a sudden increase in gamma indicates a sharp upward in momentum that continues until that gamma drops.
+
+    -   The GM seems to act like a ceiling, but fun things happen when the underlying crossing that threshold!
+
+This is my own personal 'alpha' that I developed for my own trading purposes, and am sharing with this community because it's given me back so much. This is not financial advice. I'm just a mathematician that likes to play with options data, and I am not a professional trader.
+
+*Methodology and Assumptions*
+
+Delta Neutral
+
+The Delta Neutral price that creates a total market delta of 0 across all GME options (all expiration dates) for a given date. It can also be though of as the intersection of a supply/demand curve for hedged stocks. See the "Methodology and Assumptions" section for full detail on how I develop this indicator.
+
+Notes below for general options on how the delta neutral interacts with the underlying price:
+
+-   There is a large influx of call option purchases, because:
+
+    -   The call prices get less expensive as the underlying price approaches the delta neutral
+
+    -   Stock prices usually rebound/revert back to the mean after large crashes, so the price often rebounds anyways.
+
+-   With the large influx of call volume, market makers have to start buying stocks to delta hedge, which turns the price back around and creates an upward trajectory.
+
+    -   Important note that hedgies often hedge with derivatives instead of buying stocks, so there isn't a 1-to-1 relationship between the delta and shares bought/sold by hedge funds.
+
+-   Historically, you can see that GME often bounces off the delta neutral prices during drops. The exception is the February drop. When the underlying goes below the delta neutral price, a lot of pressure builds up that results in a significant increase when that pressure is released.
+
+    -   Note this is the primary way that I trade my model. I made a scanner that looks for equities that fall below the delta neutral.
+
+Gamma Neutral
+
+The Gamma Neutral price that creates a total market gamma of 0 across all GME options (all expiration dates) for a given date. See the "Methodology and Assumptions" section for full detail on how I develop this indicator.
+
+General notes below for observations on how this indicator behaves:
+
+-   It acts like support/resistance between the delta neutral and the underlying, and typically bounces around between the two prices for most symbols (like we have seen with GME since April).
+
+-   It also goes crazy in periods of high volatility, as you can see by the very higher spikes.
+
+-   A gamma spike indicates the presence of POTENTAILLY slippery option market conditions, which COULD lead to a gamma squeeze. There were certainly spikes present back in January, but we had a few one-day false starts this last month.
+
+-   They are often triggered by high price movement in a day, which can lead to continue high growth if underlying volume supports it.
+
+-   Gamma spikes can also be triggered by unusual options purchases during the day. These are the one ones to find, because you can often catch the high increase waves before they actually start.
+
+-   If I'm trading this indicator, I often either wait for a gamma spike to continue for 2 days in a row and supported by increased volume. Otherwise, I invest straight away if I find a gamma spike just based on options movement (i.e. no significant underlying increase yet).
+
+I write my own algorithms to produce the results above. The following lists some key methodology and assumptions I use:
+
+-   I rely on daily options and stock summaries produced by [www.historicaloptionsdata.com](http://www.historicaloptionsdata.com/)
+
+-   For the Implied Volatility (IV), I use the following method:
+
+    -   Calculate the raw IV of the mid-point between bid/ask price at close.
+
+    -   Calculate a "blend" IV, which represents the IV where the call/put parity holds, i.e. where call delta -- put delta = 1, using the same IV.
+
+    -   Smooth the mid-point call/put and blend IV using a gaussian smoothing algorithm with a 20-strike window.
+
+    -   Apply the smoothed call/put relativities to the smoothed blended IV curve
+
+    -   Fill any missing values with a linear interpolation of the neighboring strikes.
+
+-   Using the final call/put IV estimates described above, I calculate my own Greeks. I like this source if you're interested in the formulas: <https://www.macroption.com/option-greeks-excel>
+
+-   For the total market delta and total market gamma, I rely on the OI x delta and OI x gamma for each strike price.
+
+    -   Note that the delta of a call is usually equal to (1 - put delta), so not adjustment is needed to the delta signs when calculating the total market delta.
+
+    -   However, the call/put gammas are both positive based on the B-S calculation. If you're calculating the total gamma for a portfolio, or the total market, you have to add the call gamma and subtract the put gamma.
+
+-   To estimate the delta neutral and the gamma neutral, I have an algorithm that relies on the optimization toolbox in Matlab to identify an underlying price that achieve a total market delta and a total market gamma.
+
+-   Note that the IV would change with higher/lower prices for the delta/gamma neutral and the sensitivity tests, but the impact is not significant enough to make a meaningful difference and takes significant processing time to apply the IV curves. However, it is an important simplifying assumption to be aware of.
+
+-   Open Interest (OI) is always lagged one day for options summaries. The OCC releases final open interest on a given day, and it represents the OI for the close of the prior day. Therefore, the OI I get in my summaries on 6/28 does not represent the OI as of close on 6/28. It represents the OI as of close on 6/25. If you see a source like Yahoo give live OI throughout the day, they are only estimates, and their algorithm methodology for estimating the OI based on various price/volume movement is a closely guarded secret. Using the prior day OI is currently a limitation of the data available to me.
+
+*Disclaimer: I'm just a mathematician that likes to play with options data and builds models to trade for a hobby. I have no experience trading professionally or offering any advice to anyone. This is just one indicator for one type of price movement, and there are many other indicators that can help you make investment decisions.*

DD/Hyperinflation-is-Coming-The-Dollar-Endgame-by-peruvian-bull/2021-06-21-A-New-Rome-Part-I.md

@@ -0,0 +1,143 @@
+Hyperinflation is Coming- The Dollar Endgame: PART 1, "A New Rome"
+==================================================================
+
+| Author      | Source | 
+|  :----:     |    :----:   |        
+| [u/peruvian_bull](https://www.reddit.com/user/peruvian_bull/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/o4vzau/hyperinflation_is_coming_the_dollar_endgame_part/) |
+
+---
+
+
+[DD 👨‍🔬](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22DD%20%F0%9F%91%A8%E2%80%8D%F0%9F%94%AC%22&restrict_sr=1)
+
+I am getting increasingly worried about the amount of warning signals that are flashing red for hyperinflation- I believe the process has already begun, as I will lay out in this paper. The first stages of hyperinflation begin slowly, and as this is an exponential process, most people will not grasp the true extent of it until it is too late. I know I'm going to gloss over a lot of stuff going over this, sorry about this but I need to fit it all into four posts without giving everyone a 400 page treatise on macro-economics to read. Counter-DDs and opinions welcome. This is going to be a lot longer than a normal DD, but I promise the pay-off is worth it, knowing the history is key to understanding where we are today.
+
+SERIES TL/DR (PARTS 1-4): We are at the end of a MASSIVE debt supercycle. This 80-100 year pattern *always* ends in one of two scenarios- default/restructuring (deflation a la Great Depression) or inflation( hyperinflation in severe cases (a la Weimar Republic). The United States has been abusing it's privilege as the World Reserve Currency holder to enforce its political and economic hegemony onto the Third World, specifically by creating massive artificial demand for treasuries/US Dollars, allowing the US to borrow extraordinary amounts of money at extremely low rates for decades, creating a [Sword of Damocles](https://idioms.thefreedictionary.com/a+sword+of+Damocles+hangs+over+head) that hangs over the global financial system. The massive debt loads have been transferred worldwide, and sovereigns are starting to call our bluff. Systemic risk within the US financial system (from derivatives) has built up to the point that collapse is all but inevitable, and the Federal Reserve has demonstrated it will do whatever it takes to defend legacy finance (banks, broker/dealers, etc) and government solvency, even at the expense of everything else (The US Dollar).
+
+I'll break this down into four parts. ALL of this is interconnected, so please read these in order:
+
+-   Part One: The Global Monetary System- "A New Rome" < (YOU ARE HERE)
+
+-   [Part Two: Derivatives, Systemic Risk, & Nitroglycerin](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/o727oc/the_dollar_endgame_part_2_the_ouroboros/)- "The Ouroboros" <
+
+-   Part Three: Banks, Debt Cycles & Avalanches- "The Money Machine" <
+
+-   Part Four: Financial Gravity & the Fed's Dilemma- "At World's End" <
+
+Preface:
+
+Some terms you need to know:
+
+[Inflation](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/i/inflation.asp): Commonly refers to increase in prices (per Keynesian thinking). However, Inflation in the truest sense is inflation (growth) of the money supply- higher prices are just the RESULT of monetary inflation. (Think, in normal terms, prices really only rise/fall, same with temperatures. (ie Housing prices rose today). The word Inflation refers to a growth in multiple directions (quantity and velocity). Deflation means a contraction of the money supply, which results in falling prices.
+
+[Dollarization](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/dollarization.asp#:~:text=Dollarization%20is%20the%20term%20for,due%20to%20hyperinflation%20or%20instability.) (Weaponization of the Dollar): The process by which the US government, IMF, World Bank, and other elite organizations force countries to adopt dollar systems and therefore create indirect demand for dollars, supporting its value. (Think Petrodollars).
+
+[Central Banks](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/centralbank.asp): Generally these are banks that control/monitor the monetary policy of the country they reside in. They are usually owned by private financial institutions (large banks/bank holding firms). They utilize open market [operations](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/o/openmarketoperations.asp#:~:text=Open%20market%20operations%20(OMO)%20refers,out%20to%20businesses%20and%20consumers.) to stabilize and set market rates. They are called the "Lender of Last Resort" as they are supposed to LEND (not bailout/buy assets) to other banks in a crisis and help defend their currency's value in international forex markets. CBs are beholden to the "[dual mandate](https://www.chicagofed.org/research/dual-mandate/dual-mandate)" of maintaining price stability (low inflation) and a strong job market (low unemployment)
+
+[Monetary Policy](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/m/monetarypolicy.asp): The set of tools that central bankers have to adjust how money moves through the financial system. The main tool they use is quantitative tightening/easing, which basically means selling treasuries or buying treasuries, respectively. *A quick note- bond prices and interest rates move inversely to one another, so when Central banks buy bonds (easing), they lower interest rates; and when they sell bonds (tightening), they increase interest rates.
+
+[Fiscal Policy](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/f/fiscalpolicy.asp): The actions taken by the government (mainly spending and taxing) to influence macroeconomic conditions. Fiscal policy and monetary policy are supposed to be enacted independently, so as not to allow massive mismanagement of the money supply to lead to extreme conditions (aka high inflation/hyperinflation or deflation) *cough Yellen cough*
+
+Part One: The Global Monetary System- A New Rome
+
+[![r/Superstonk - Hyperinflation is Coming- The Dollar Endgame: PART 1, "A New Rome"](https://preview.redd.it/7sgzws8mlm671.png?width=557&format=png&auto=webp&s=956c8e050e84de9715eb2c7e4aeee59910f38d3a)](https://preview.redd.it/7sgzws8mlm671.png?width=557&format=png&auto=webp&s=956c8e050e84de9715eb2c7e4aeee59910f38d3a)
+
+Allegory of the Prisoner's Dilemma
+
+Prologue:
+
+In their masterwork tapestry entitled "[Allegory of the Prisoner's Dilemma](https://loloro.com/artwork/3552148-Allegory-of-the-Prisoner-s-Dilemma.html)" (pictured in the title image of this post) the artists Diaz Hope and Roth visually depict a great tower of civilization that rests upon a bedrock of human cooperation and competition across history. The artists force us to confront the fact that after 10,000 years of human civilization we are now at a cross-roads. Today we have the highest living standards in human history that co-exists with an ability to destroy our planet ecologically and ourselves through nuclear war. We are in the greatest period of stability with the largest probabilistic tail risk ever. The majority of Americans have lived their entire lives without ever experiencing a direct war and this is, by all accounts, rare in the history of humankind. Does this mean we are safe? Or does the risk exist in some other form, transmuted and changed by time and space, unseen by most political pundits who brazenly tout perpetual American dominance across our screens? ([Pulled from Artemis Capital Research Paper](https://artemiscm.docsend.com/view/t2rpfyivddgqg6n8))
+
+The Bretton Woods Agreement
+
+[Money](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/m/money.asp), in and of itself, might have actual value; it can be a shell, a metal coin, or a piece of paper. Its value depends on the importance [that people place on it](https://www.investopedia.com/insights/what-is-money/)---traditionally, money functions as a medium of exchange, a unit of measurement, and a storehouse for wealth (what is called the three factor definition of money). Money allows people to trade goods and services indirectly, it helps communicate the price of goods (prices written in dollar and cents correspond to a numerical amount in your possession, i.e. in your pocket, purse, or wallet), and it provides individuals with a way to store their wealth in the long-term.
+
+Since the inception of world trade, merchants have attempted to use a single form of money for international settlement. In the 1500s-1700s, the Spanish silver peso (where we derive the [$ sign](https://www.lexico.com/explore/what-is-the-origin-of-the-dollar-sign)) was the standard- by the 1800s and early 1900s, the British rose to prominence and the Pound (under a gold standard) became the de facto world reserve currency, helping to boost the UK's military and economic dominance over much of the world. After World War 1, geopolitical power started to shift to the US, and this was cemented in 1944 at [Bretton Woods](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bretton_Woods_system), where the US was designated as the WRC (World Reserve Currency) holder.
+
+[![r/Superstonk - Hyperinflation is Coming- The Dollar Endgame: PART 1, "A New Rome"](https://preview.redd.it/gw3dze1plm671.png?width=774&format=png&auto=webp&s=270e50cd07607e6e8c2f0254d954849cdb443c82)](https://preview.redd.it/gw3dze1plm671.png?width=774&format=png&auto=webp&s=270e50cd07607e6e8c2f0254d954849cdb443c82)
+
+Bretton Woods
+
+In the early fall of 1939, the world had watched in horror as the German blitzkrieg raced through Poland, and combined with a simultaneous Russian invasion, had conquered the entire territory in 35 days. This was no easy task, as the Polish army numbered more than [1,500,000 men](https://www.ww2-weapons.com/polish-armed-forces/), and was thought by military tacticians to be a tough adversary, even for the industrious German war machine. As WWII continued to heat up and country after country fell to the German onslaught, European countries, fretting over possible invasions of their countries and annexation of their gold, started sending massive amounts of their [Gold Reserves to the US](https://www.stlouisfed.org/publications/regional-economist/first-quarter-2020/changing-relationship-trade-americas-gold-reserves). At one point, the Federal Reserve held over 50% of all above-ground reserves in the world.
+
+[![r/Superstonk - Hyperinflation is Coming- The Dollar Endgame: PART 1, "A New Rome"](https://preview.redd.it/40yylu9qlm671.png?width=783&format=png&auto=webp&s=57a4cfabc73c8b074da57f68980467e834055f62)](https://preview.redd.it/40yylu9qlm671.png?width=783&format=png&auto=webp&s=57a4cfabc73c8b074da57f68980467e834055f62)
+
+US Trade Balance
+
+In a global monetary system restrained by a Gold Standard, countries HAVE to have [gold reserves](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gold_reserve) in their vaults in order to issue paper currency. The Western European powers all exited the Gold standard via executive acts in the during the dark days of the Great Depression (in Germany's case, immediately after WW1) and build up to War by their respective finance ministers, but the understanding was they would return back to the Gold standard, or at least some form of it, after the chaos had subsided. As the war wound down, and it became clear that the Allies would win, the Western Powers understood that they would need to come to a new consensus on the creation of a new global monetary and economic system. Britain, the previous world superpower, was marred by the war, and had seen most of her industrial cities in ruin from the [Blitz](https://www.britannica.com/event/the-Blitz). France was basically in tatters, with most industrial infrastructure completely obliterated by German and American shelling during various points of the war. The leaders of the Western world looked ahead to a long road of rebuilding and recovery. The new threat of the USSR loomed heavy on the horizon, as the Iron Curtain was already taking shape within the territories re-conquered by the hordes of Red Army. Realizing that it was unsafe to send the gold back from the US, they understood that a post-war economic system would need a new World Reserve Currency. The US was the de-facto choice as it had massive reserves and huge lending capacity due to its untouched infrastructure and incredibly productive economy.
+
+At Bretton Woods, the consortium of nations assented to an [agreement](https://corporatefinanceinstitute.com/resources/knowledge/finance/bretton-woods-agreement/) whereby the Dollar would become the WRC and the participating nations would [synchronize monetary policy](https://ies.princeton.edu/pdf/E106.pdf) to avoid competitive devaluation. In summary, they could still redeem dollars for Gold at a fixed rate of $35 an oz, a hard redemption peg which the[ U.S would defend](https://www.thebalance.com/gold-price-history-3305646). Thus they entered into a quasi- Gold standard, where citizens and private corporations could NOT redeem dollars for Gold (due to the [Gold Reserve Act ](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gold_Reserve_Act), c. 1934), but sovereign governments (Central banks) could still redeem dollars for gold. Since their currencies (like the Franc and Pound) were pegged to the Dollar, and the Dollar pegged to gold, all countries remained connected indirectly to a gold standard, stabilizing their currency conversion rate to each other and limiting local governments' ability to print and spend recklessly.
+
+[![r/Superstonk - Hyperinflation is Coming- The Dollar Endgame: PART 1, "A New Rome"](https://preview.redd.it/6pqkimnwlm671.png?width=746&format=png&auto=webp&s=a2d3e71f7fe4462d7157d0a54e45c2f5f63b8e51)](https://preview.redd.it/6pqkimnwlm671.png?width=746&format=png&auto=webp&s=a2d3e71f7fe4462d7157d0a54e45c2f5f63b8e51)
+
+US Gold Reserves
+
+For a few decades, this system worked well enough. US economic growth spurred European rebuilding, and world trade continued to increase. Cracks started to appear during the Guns and Butter era of the 1960's, when Vietnam War spending and Johnson's Great Society programs spurred a new era of fiscal [profligacy](https://www.thebalance.com/president-lyndon-johnson-s-economic-policies-3305561). The US started borrowing massively, and dollars in the form of Treasuries started stacking up in foreign Central Banks reserve accounts.
+
+Then-French President [Charles De Gaulle](https://www.britannica.com/biography/Charles-de-Gaulle-president-of-France/Return-to-public-life) did the calculus and realized in 1965 that the US had issued far too many dollars, even considering the massive gold reserves they had, to ever redeem all dollars for gold (remember naked shorting more shares than exist? -same idea here). He laid out this argument in his infamous [Criterion Speech](https://www.usagold.com/cpmforum/favorite-web-pages-degaulle/) and began aggressively redeeming dollars for gold. The global "run on the dollar" had already begun, but the process accelerated after his seminal address, as every large sovereign turned in their dollars for bullion, and the US Treasury was forced to start massively exporting gold. Backing the sovereign government's actions were fiscal and monetary strategists getting more and more worried that the US would not have enough gold to redeem their dollars, and they would be left holding a bag of worthless paper dollars, backed by nothing but promises. The outward flow of gold quickly became a deluge, and policymakers at all levels of Treasury and the State department started to worry.
+
+[![r/Superstonk - Hyperinflation is Coming- The Dollar Endgame: PART 1, "A New Rome"](https://preview.redd.it/n2o4uz5ylm671.png?width=761&format=png&auto=webp&s=02ce74f1d61b5fa8c920db23af4c87bff8e2e2d2)](https://preview.redd.it/n2o4uz5ylm671.png?width=761&format=png&auto=webp&s=02ce74f1d61b5fa8c920db23af4c87bff8e2e2d2)
+
+Nixon ends Bretton Woods
+
+Nearing a coming dollar solvency crisis, Richard Nixon [announced](https://www.federalreservehistory.org/essays/gold-convertibility-ends) on August 15th, 1971 that he was closing the [gold window](http://triplecrisis.com/a-first-default-closing-the-gold-window/), effectively barring all countries from current and future gold redemptions. Money ceased to be based on the gold in the Treasury vaults, and instead was now completely unbacked, based solely on government decree, or [fiat](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/f/fiatmoney.asp). Fixed wage and price controls were created, inflation skyrocketed, and unemployment spiked.
+
+Nixon's speech was not received as well internationally as it was in the United States. Many in the international community interpreted Nixon's plan as a unilateral act. In response, the [Group of Ten](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/g/groupoften.asp) (G-10) industrialized democracies decided on new exchange rates that centered on a devalued dollar in what became known as the [Smithsonian Agreement](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/smithsonian-agreement.asp). That plan went into effect in Dec. 1971, but it proved unsuccessful. Beginning in Feb. 1973, speculative market pressure caused the USD to devalue and led to a series of [exchange parities](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/p/parity.asp).
+
+Amid still-heavy pressure on the dollar in March of that year, the G--10 implemented a strategy that called for six European members to tie their currencies together and jointly [float](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/f/float.asp) them against the dollar. That decision essentially brought an end to the fixed exchange rate system established by Bretton Woods. This crisis came to be known as the "[Nixon Shock](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/n/nixon-shock.asp)" and the DXY ([US dollar index) began to fall](https://www.macrotrends.net/1329/us-dollar-index-historical-chart) in global markets.
+
+[![r/Superstonk - Hyperinflation is Coming- The Dollar Endgame: PART 1, "A New Rome"](https://preview.redd.it/jioirg70mm671.png?width=754&format=png&auto=webp&s=e81e3ab7724a05947925e436657a05e8d5ed6c5e)](https://preview.redd.it/jioirg70mm671.png?width=754&format=png&auto=webp&s=e81e3ab7724a05947925e436657a05e8d5ed6c5e)
+
+DXY
+
+This crisis came out of the blue for most members of the administration. According to [Keynesian](https://www.econlib.org/library/Enc/KeynesianEconomics.html) economists, stagflation was literally impossible, as it was a violation of the [Philips Curve](https://www.econlib.org/library/Enc/PhillipsCurve.html) principle, where Unemployment and Inflation were inversely correlated, thus inflation should [theoretically](https://www.stlouisfed.org/open-vault/2020/january/what-is-phillips-curve-why-flattened) be decreasing as the recession worsened and unemployment climbed through [1973-1975](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1973%E2%80%931975_recession#:~:text=The%201973%E2%80%931975%20recession%20or,World%20War%20II%20economic%20expansion.).
+
+[![r/Superstonk - Hyperinflation is Coming- The Dollar Endgame: PART 1, "A New Rome"](https://preview.redd.it/865d1fr1mm671.png?width=705&format=png&auto=webp&s=ee8be1d79e2323da9f0f19ecc39c0da0a3360511)](https://preview.redd.it/865d1fr1mm671.png?width=705&format=png&auto=webp&s=ee8be1d79e2323da9f0f19ecc39c0da0a3360511)
+
+Phillips Curve
+
+MONKE-SPEK: Philips Curve Explained
+
+-   Low Unemployment>Lots of jobs/high demand for labor.
+
+-   Thus, more workers are employed, and wages rise>putting more money in more people's pockets.
+
+-   These people go out and buy beanie babies, toasters, and bananas (what economist John Maynard Keynes called [aggregate demand](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/a/aggregatedemand.asp)) and this higher demand leads to higher prices for goods and services. This shows up as inflation.
+
+-   Consider the opposite- high unemployment>fewer jobs>less money for people
+
+-   Less demand for goods and services> lower inflation
+
+Keynesian economists treated this curve as a law of nature, rather than a general rule. We see exceptions to this rule everywhere- Argentina is a prime example, where they have [persistently](https://www.statista.com/statistics/316703/unemployment-rate-in-argentina/) high unemployment AND high [inflation](https://tradingeconomics.com/argentina/inflation-cpi). This phenomenon is called [stagflation](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/stagflation.asp), and is evidence of inflationary pressures so strong that they overcome the deflationary force of high unemployment. These economists were utterly blindsided by the emergence of stagflation.
+
+After the closing of the gold window in 1971, the crisis spread, inflation kept climbing, and other sovereigns began contemplating devaluing their currencies as their only peg, the US dollar, was now unmoored and looked to be heading to disaster. US exports started climbing (cheaper dollar, foreigners could now import stuff to their countries), straining export economies and sparking talks of a [currency war](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Currency_war). Knowing they had to do something to stop the bleeding, the Nixon administration, at the direction of Henry Kissinger, made a secret deal with [OPEC](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/OPEC), creating what is now called the Petrodollar system. This [article](https://greatpowerrelations.com/great-powers/status-of-great-powers/key-drivers-of-economic-capabilities/dollar-and-de-dollarization/birth-of-petrodollar/) summarizes it best:
+
+[![r/Superstonk - Hyperinflation is Coming- The Dollar Endgame: PART 1, "A New Rome"](https://preview.redd.it/m5a1v6a4mm671.png?width=787&format=png&auto=webp&s=b8ff7945a9bbe8924be32f157864c67a0db4cb41)](https://preview.redd.it/m5a1v6a4mm671.png?width=787&format=png&auto=webp&s=b8ff7945a9bbe8924be32f157864c67a0db4cb41)
+
+PetroDollar system
+
+[Petrodollars](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/p/petrodollars.asp) had been around since the late 1940s, but only with a few suppliers. Petrodollars are U.S. dollars paid to an oil-exporting country for the sale of the commodity. Put simply, the petrodollar system is an exchange of oil for U.S. dollars between countries that buy oil and those that produce it. By forcing the majority of the oil producers in the world to price contracts in dollars, it created artificial demand for dollars, helping to support US dollar value on foreign exchange markets. The petrodollar system creates surpluses for oil producers, which lead to large U.S. dollar reserves for oil exporters, which need to be recycled, meaning they can be channeled into loans or direct investment back in the United States.
+
+It still wasn't enough. [Inflation](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FPCPITOTLZGUSA), like many things, had inertia, and the oil shocks caused by the Yom Kippur War and other geo-political events continued to strain the economy through the 1970's.
+
+[![r/Superstonk - Hyperinflation is Coming- The Dollar Endgame: PART 1, "A New Rome"](https://preview.redd.it/l89uq1v5mm671.png?width=782&format=png&auto=webp&s=3673060f2a7a4492bafae2ef07d0a33f3442f649)](https://preview.redd.it/l89uq1v5mm671.png?width=782&format=png&auto=webp&s=3673060f2a7a4492bafae2ef07d0a33f3442f649)
+
+PCE Index
+
+Running out of road, monetary policymakers finally decided to employ the nuclear option. [Paul Volcker](https://www.thebalance.com/who-is-paul-volcker-3306157), the new Federal Reserve Chairman selected in 1979, knew that it was imperative to break the back of inflation to preserve the global economic system. That year, inflation was spiking well above 10%, with no end in sight. He decided to do something about it.
+
+[![r/Superstonk - Hyperinflation is Coming- The Dollar Endgame: PART 1, "A New Rome"](https://preview.redd.it/ytyvtld7mm671.png?width=786&format=png&auto=webp&s=d0be2afbd5e646ee7afa70c4bac738796029ff97)](https://preview.redd.it/ytyvtld7mm671.png?width=786&format=png&auto=webp&s=d0be2afbd5e646ee7afa70c4bac738796029ff97)
+
+Volcker Doctrine
+
+By hiking interest rates aggressively, consumer credit lending slowed, mortgages became more expensive to finance, and corporate debt became more expensive to borrow. Foreign companies that had been dumping US dollar holdings as inflation had risen now had good reason to keep their funds vested in US accounts. When the Petrodollar system, which had started taking shape in '73 was completed in March 1979 under the [US-Saudi Joint Commission](https://www.legistorm.com/reports/view/gao/6895/The_U_S_Saudi_Arabian_Joint_Commission_on_Economic_Cooperation.html), the dollar finally began to stabilize. The worst of the crisis was over.
+
+Volcker had to keep interest rates elevated well above 8% for most of the decade, to shore up support for the dollar and assure foreign creditors that the Fed would do whatever it takes to defend the value of the dollar in the future. These absurdly high interest rates put a brake to US government borrowing, at least for a few years. Foreign creditors breathed a sigh of relief as they saw that the Fed would go to extreme lengths to preserve the value of the dollar and ensure that Treasury bonds paid back their principal + interest in real terms.
+
+[![r/Superstonk - Hyperinflation is Coming- The Dollar Endgame: PART 1, "A New Rome"](https://preview.redd.it/8wmho589mm671.png?width=775&format=png&auto=webp&s=7af6f7393d964baeabd3ff69eeb876ef70bace1e)](https://preview.redd.it/8wmho589mm671.png?width=775&format=png&auto=webp&s=7af6f7393d964baeabd3ff69eeb876ef70bace1e)
+
+10yr US treasury yields
+
+Over the next 40 years, the United States and most of the developed world saw a prolonged period of economic growth and global trade. Fiat money became the norm, and creditors accepted the new paradigm, with it's new risk of inflation/devaluation (under the gold standard, current account deficits, and thus inflation risk, was self-stabilizing). The Global Monetary system now consisted of free-floating fiat currencies, liberated from the fetters of the gold system.
+
+[(I had to break this post up into two sections due to the character limit, here is second half of Pt 1): /](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/o4w45f/hyperinflation_is_coming_the_dollar_endgame_part/)

DD/Hyperinflation-is-Coming-The-Dollar-Endgame-by-peruvian-bull/2021-06-21-A-New-Rome-Part-II.md

@@ -0,0 +1,123 @@
+Hyperinflation is Coming- The Dollar Endgame: PART 1, "A New Rome"
+==================================================================
+
+| Author      | Source | 
+|  :----:     |    :----:   |        
+| [u/peruvian_bull](https://www.reddit.com/user/peruvian_bull/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/o4w45f/hyperinflation_is_coming_the_dollar_endgame_part/) |
+
+---
+
+
+[DD 👨‍🔬](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22DD%20%F0%9F%91%A8%E2%80%8D%F0%9F%94%AC%22&restrict_sr=1)
+
+(this is a second half of Pt 1 of the endgame series, find the first half of Pt 1 [here](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/o4vzau/hyperinflation_is_coming_the_dollar_endgame_part/))
+
+Dollar Hegemony
+
+Ok, let's go over this for a second. Let us say you are the President of a country like [Liberia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liberia), a small West African nation, looking to enter global trade. You go talk to the International Monetary Fund, whose economists tell you in order to be a modern economy you need to have your own currency. Thus, you need a Central Bank to print your own currency (LD), which will be used as [legal tender](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/l/legal-tender.asp), enforced by your government. Your Central bank will act as a lender of last resort for all the commercial and investment banks in your country, and will be responsible for stabilizing monetary policy.
+
+But, there's an issue-the economists tell you that you CANNOT have your Central Bank store up your own currency as the majority of its [foreign exchange reserves](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/f/foreign-exchange-reserves.asp). Why? Well, if your currency comes under attack in the global [Forex](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/forex/f/forex-market.asp) markets, you will have to defend it. If your currency trade value is too high, it's easy to fight- you just print your own currency and buy Euros (EU) or Dollars (USD), flooding the market with your currency and taking other currencies out of the market- "[devaluing your currency](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/devaluation.asp#:~:text=Devaluation%20is%20the%20deliberate%20downward%20adjustment%20of%20a%20country%27s%20currency,can%20help%20shrink%20trade%20deficits.)" . However, if the inverse is true, and your currency is losing value in the market, printing more to flood the market will only make it worse. You need a stable currency, like bullets in the chamber, to utilize to buy your currency at the market rate, to support its value and drive it back up. This form of currency defense is called "defending the [peg](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/currency-peg.asp)" (Post-1971, the peg is floating, so it's more of a range, but it's still referred to loosely as a peg).
+
+This exact phenomenon played out during the[ Asian Financial Crisis](https://www.thebalance.com/what-was-the-asian-financial-crisis-1978997) of 1997, a classic case study in global monetary crises. Thailand had grown rapidly as world trade boomed in the 1980s and 90s, and its corporate and real estate sectors took on massive amounts of debt. A massive real estate and financial bubble formed (does this sound familiar)? Soon, the bubble started to pop:
+
+[![r/Superstonk - Hyperinflation is Coming- The Dollar Endgame: PART 1, "A New Rome"](https://preview.redd.it/fbnpc1k7nm671.png?width=777&format=png&auto=webp&s=717ebf418b3ee627e15013c5a3dfab22f9fb8c0a)](https://preview.redd.it/fbnpc1k7nm671.png?width=777&format=png&auto=webp&s=717ebf418b3ee627e15013c5a3dfab22f9fb8c0a)
+
+Thai Financial Crisis
+
+Thailand's hand was forced, and the Thai Central Bank decided to devalue its currency relative to the US dollar. This development, which followed months of speculative downward pressures on their currency that had substantially depleted Thailand's official foreign exchange reserves, marked the beginning of a deep financial crisis across much of East Asia. In subsequent months, Thailand's currency, equity, and property markets weakened further as its difficulties evolved into a twin balance-of-payments and banking crisis. Malaysia, the Philippines, and Indonesia also allowed their currencies to weaken substantially in the face of market pressures, with Indonesia gradually falling into a multifaceted financial and political crisis.
+
+[![r/Superstonk - Hyperinflation is Coming- The Dollar Endgame: PART 1, "A New Rome"](https://preview.redd.it/0gh1phi9nm671.png?width=779&format=png&auto=webp&s=454d0bab7fd2d0b8df84b5fc600cb53253319d05)](https://preview.redd.it/0gh1phi9nm671.png?width=779&format=png&auto=webp&s=454d0bab7fd2d0b8df84b5fc600cb53253319d05)
+
+Asian Financial Crisis
+
+As the president of Liberia, you see what can happen when a country, especially a small third-world country, doesn't have enough dollar reserves to defend its own currency. Rippling currency devaluations, inflation, social and political unrest, widening economic inequality- the beginning of a death spiral of a country if you aren't careful. So, you tell the IMF that you agree to their terms. They impress upon you that you need to get your bank to buy up some other stable currency to hold as reserves, to defend against this very scenario. As the US dollar is the World Reserve Currency, you're going to hold it as the majority of your reserve position.
+
+We've established the need for a small country to hold another currency on their balance sheet. If ONE small country does this, there is little impact on the US Dollar. However, under the current system, virtually [EVERY](https://faisalkhan.com/central-banks/) country has a central bank, and they all use the Dollar as their main reserve currency. This creates MASSIVE buying pressure on Treasuries. Using Liberia as an example, the process works like this:
+
+[![r/Superstonk - Hyperinflation is Coming- The Dollar Endgame: PART 1, "A New Rome"](https://preview.redd.it/ui054o3bnm671.png?width=806&format=png&auto=webp&s=53c4f55e236b5c840a59a67d974df35b085c294b)](https://preview.redd.it/ui054o3bnm671.png?width=806&format=png&auto=webp&s=53c4f55e236b5c840a59a67d974df35b085c294b)
+
+Dollar Recycling
+
+THIS is what French Finance Minister Valéry Giscard d'Estaing meant when during the 1960's he had contemptuously [called](https://www.brookings.edu/blog/ben-bernanke/2016/01/07/the-dollars-international-role-an-exorbitant-privilege-2/) this benefit the US enjoyed *le privilège exorbitant*, or the "[Exorbitant privilege](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Exorbitant_privilege)". He understood that the United States would never face a[ Balance of Payments](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Currency_crisis) (currency) crisis (*AS LONG AS THE USD IS THE WORLD RESERVE CURRENCY*), nor a debt crisis, due to forced buying of Treasuries (from Central Banks) and Dollars (from Petrodollar systeem). The US could borrow cheaply, spend lavishly, and not pay for it immediately. Instead, the payment for this privilege would build up in the form of debt and dollars overseas, held by foreigners all around the world. One day, the Piper HAS to be paid- but as long as the music is playing, and the punchbowl is out, everyone gets to party, dance & drink to their hearts' content, and the US can remain the[ belle of the ball](https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/the%20belle%20of%20the%20ball).
+
+Effectively, the US can print money, and get real goods. This means we can import consumer products for cheap, and the inflation we create gets exported to other countries. (ONE of the reasons why developing countries tend to have higher inflation). [Another way to explain it:](https://whatismoney.info/exporting-inflation/)
+
+[![r/Superstonk - Hyperinflation is Coming- The Dollar Endgame: PART 1, "A New Rome"](https://preview.redd.it/cdv48oqcnm671.png?width=782&format=png&auto=webp&s=919ec0bf7363987a0a9b0454db0fd3e7df5bcf2c)](https://preview.redd.it/cdv48oqcnm671.png?width=782&format=png&auto=webp&s=919ec0bf7363987a0a9b0454db0fd3e7df5bcf2c)
+
+Exporting Inflation, importing goods
+
+As it is the WRC, other countries' Central Banks NEED to have US dollars on their balance sheet. Thus, the US has to run persistent [current account deficits](https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/010715/what-difference-between-current-account-deficit-and-trade-deficit.asp) in order to send out more dollars to the global system, on net, than it receives back. A major byproduct is [constant large and increasing trade deficits](https://www.stlouisfed.org/publications/regional-economist/third-quarter-2018/understanding-roots-trade-deficit) for the WRC holder (in a fiat money system).
+
+This is what is known as [Triffin's dilemma](https://www.investopedia.com/financial-edge/1011/how-the-triffin-dilemma-affects-currencies.aspx): the WRC is HAS to run constant trade deficits. There are no immediate negative impacts, but in the long run this process is unsustainable, as the WRC country becomes unproductive (ever wonder why US manufacturing left) because the system forces the WRC holder to be a net importer. As world trade grows, the current account deficit/trade deficit grows, and the benefits (more goods to the US) and drawbacks (more dollars build up overseas) increase over time. Eventually the imbalance becomes so great that something snaps, just like it did for the [Pound post WWI](https://www.economicshelp.org/blog/5948/economics/uk-economy-in-the-1920s/), where policymakers chose the route of deflation in 1921, creating a Great depression for the UK long before the US ever experienced it.
+
+[![r/Superstonk - Hyperinflation is Coming- The Dollar Endgame: PART 1, "A New Rome"](https://preview.redd.it/pktv0cdfnm671.png?width=812&format=png&auto=webp&s=42ab9b7ea8502e518371bd8dcfc348d65344d040)](https://preview.redd.it/pktv0cdfnm671.png?width=812&format=png&auto=webp&s=42ab9b7ea8502e518371bd8dcfc348d65344d040)
+
+US Trade Deficit broken down by Goods/Services
+
+This is why I laughed out loud when I heard Trump rail against our trade deficits in one of the 2016 presidential debates. He clearly did not understand how our system works, and that this issue was beneficial in the short term, but detrimental in the long term. Our trade deficits were symptoms of our system working exactly as intended. In fact, a large part of the reason why he was elected was the de-industrialization of the American heartland, where loss of economic vitality from manufacturing jobs was leading to rampant [drug abuse](https://blog.questdiagnostics.com/blog/2019/03/29/id-signs-of-drug-abuse-in-loved-one/), depression, and societal decay. I knew this process of deindustrialization [would only get worse with time](https://www.politico.com/news/2020/10/06/trump-trade-deficit-426805), and nothing he did (short of taking us off the WRC status) would change that. (Not political, other politicians say the same shit. They just don't understand the very system in which we operate).
+
+Fast forward to today- After decades of this process playing out, Foreign Central Banks collectively hold huge amounts of Forex reserves, as you can see [below](https://www.visualcapitalist.com/countries-most-foreign-currency-reserves/) where countries are sized depending on their reserves of foreign currency exchange assets:
+
+[![r/Superstonk - Hyperinflation is Coming- The Dollar Endgame: PART 1, "A New Rome"](https://preview.redd.it/m7vql2rinm671.png?width=780&format=png&auto=webp&s=4adf109f9687378684818d67db55c8f74f9fd92d)](https://preview.redd.it/m7vql2rinm671.png?width=780&format=png&auto=webp&s=4adf109f9687378684818d67db55c8f74f9fd92d)
+
+Central Banks FX Reserves
+
+The majority of these [reserves are held in dollars](https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/dollar-worlds-currency), mainly in the form of [Treasuries, T-bills, and other US government debt](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/BOGZ1FL263061130Q). Furthermore, the US Dollar continues to dominate global trade through the [SWIFT](https://www.investopedia.com/articles/personal-finance/050515/how-swift-system-works.asp) network (Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication). SWIFT is a payments system used by multinational banks, institutions, and corporations to settle trade worldwide. USD is the preferred payment method within the system, thus forcing other countries to adopt the dollar in international trade. This is one of the results of the petrodollar system we described earlier. Petrodollars originally were exclusively used to refer to oil contracts priced in USD from Saudi Arabia, but over time the name grew to mean any oil contract, transacted by non-US countries, using the US Dollar as the denomination.
+
+[![r/Superstonk - Hyperinflation is Coming- The Dollar Endgame: PART 1, "A New Rome"](https://preview.redd.it/7tyu7klknm671.png?width=693&format=png&auto=webp&s=aefe74220376e881f9d9c0db859d0bca8247c85e)](https://preview.redd.it/7tyu7klknm671.png?width=693&format=png&auto=webp&s=aefe74220376e881f9d9c0db859d0bca8247c85e)
+
+Most FX Reserves in Dollars
+
+When Chile and South Africa trade copper, for example, they have to transact in dollars, because a SWIFT member bank in South Africa will not accept Chilean Pesos as payment, as there is a smaller, less liquid market for it and it doesn't want to take a trading loss when converting to a more usable currency. The contract itself is priced in USD, so if that merchant bank wants to sell it, they can quickly find a buyer. In fact, SWIFT itself published a [report](https://www.swift.com/node/19186#:~:text=The%20US%20dollar%20dominates%20as,regional%20currency%20usage%20in%20value.) in 2014, and found that the USD accounts for almost 80% of all world trade! (see top left)
+
+[![r/Superstonk - Hyperinflation is Coming- The Dollar Endgame: PART 1, "A New Rome"](https://preview.redd.it/fspge6omnm671.png?width=752&format=png&auto=webp&s=272a005bae77aee91dc1a83b9febdafb20b2dd2c)](https://preview.redd.it/fspge6omnm671.png?width=752&format=png&auto=webp&s=272a005bae77aee91dc1a83b9febdafb20b2dd2c)
+
+Currencies as a % of Trade
+
+This process is called dollarization, whereby the dollar is used as the medium of exchange for a contract, in place of some other currency, even between non-US trading partners (Iran and China for example). [Dollarization](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/dollarization.asp#:~:text=Dollarization%20is%20the%20term%20for,due%20to%20hyperinflation%20or%20instability.) (capital D) of a country occurs when a government switches from managing their own currency to just using the US dollar for trade settlement and tax revenue- like Ecuador, El Salvador, and Panama have [done](https://www.coha.org/examining-the-effects-of-dollarization-on-ecuador/). The US Dollar reserves from the petro-dollar system show up on the balance sheets of these overseas financial institutions; they are called [Euro-Dollars](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/e/eurodollar.asp), and these [USD denominated deposits](https://capitalistexploits.at/eurodollar-market-it-all-starts-here/) are not under the jurisdiction of the Treasury or Federal Reserve. If you want to read a brief history of the Euro-dollar market, check out this paper from the Federal Reserve bank of St. Louis [here](https://files.stlouisfed.org/files/htdocs/publications/review/80/06/Eurodollars_Jun_Jul1980.pdf). In 2016, the total value of the Eurodollar Market was estimated to be around [13.83 Trillion](https://www.nedbank.co.za/content/dam/nedbank-crp/reports/Strategy/NeelsAndMehul/2016/September/TheRiseAndFallOfTheEurodollarSystem_160907.pdf).
+
+Through this process, the United States was able to become the [largest and most dominant military force](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2017/03/22/us/is-americas-military-big-enough.html) in the history of man, able to fight simultaneous two-theater wars with overseas supply lines. The Treasury could borrow and spend, unimpeded by the normal constraints of market discipline that were hoisted on other countries. Despite not declaring war since 1941, the US has been in a state of [near-continuous warfare](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_wars_involving_the_United_States).
+
+[![r/Superstonk - Hyperinflation is Coming- The Dollar Endgame: PART 1, "A New Rome"](https://preview.redd.it/smw5l4ugg1a71.png?width=822&format=png&auto=webp&s=b6d6d1b94957aa371040c66f188c456f20fa786d)](https://preview.redd.it/smw5l4ugg1a71.png?width=822&format=png&auto=webp&s=b6d6d1b94957aa371040c66f188c456f20fa786d)
+
+American Military Budget
+
+At every turn, the US defended this system at all costs, even going so far as to directly invade and occupy the Middle East in the Gulf War in 1991 and the Iraq/Afghanistan War (2001-Present). As a result there are over [800](https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2015/06/us-military-bases-around-the-world-119321#:~:text=Despite%20recently%20closing%20hundreds%20of,about%2030%20foreign%20bases%20combined.) US military [bases around the world](https://www.todaysmilitary.com/ways-to-serve/bases-around-world), in locales ranging from Turkey to Japan. American institutions like the Senate, Presidency, and Courts were modeled after their Roman antecedents, to the point that the American symbol, the Eagle, is the spitting image of the [Roman Aquila](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aquila_(Roman)) adorned on the [Standard](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roman_Empire_Standards) of the centurions.
+
+[![r/Superstonk - Hyperinflation is Coming- The Dollar Endgame: PART 1, "A New Rome"](https://preview.redd.it/ig1pp031g1a71.png?width=764&format=png&auto=webp&s=57ff0e910d0707cc6475c8e4c098eab0634b67fc)](https://preview.redd.it/ig1pp031g1a71.png?width=764&format=png&auto=webp&s=57ff0e910d0707cc6475c8e4c098eab0634b67fc)
+
+Rome
+
+Most scholars tout the story of Rome as a tale of triumphalism; of valiant centurions battling in the steppes of Asia, of brilliant generals laying traps for enemy armies, of scheming senators fighting battles of political intrigue, and of a sophisticated and well-functioning empire that harnessed engineering to create marvels such as the Colosseum and the Roman Aqueducts. [More sober historians](https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/19400.The_Decline_and_Fall_of_the_Roman_Empire?from_search=true&from_srp=true&qid=oZSKjoDHpx&rank=1), however, point out that the story of Rome is one that also echoes a warning through the annals of history. A complex society, with mighty political, legal, and financial institutions, supported by a massive military, fell not to a crushing enemy invasion, but to collapse and decay from within. An elite ruling class, detached from the realities of daily life of the citizens, oversaw an empire with growing income inequality, environmental degradation, political corruption, social deterioration, and economic despair, and did nothing to stop it. The Roman Treasury, facing insurmountable debts from years of fruitless war, started "clipping coins" an early form of currency debasement that led to the Roman denarii losing 25% of it's value every year. This eventually led to uprisings in Roman provinces and the [Sacking of Rome](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sack_of_Rome_(410))- the coup de grace, the final nail in the coffin for what had become the decadent [Western Roman empire](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fall_of_the_Western_Roman_Empire).
+
+------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
+
+Smooth Brain Overview:
+
+-   Petrodollars: Oil contracts priced in dollars means foreign companies need to have dollars to buy oil. This creates artificial demand for dollars as companies sell their local currency to buy USD.
+
+-   Triffin Dillema: As the US is WRC, other countries' Central banks need USDs. US thus runs deficits to push more $ out to the world to satisfy demand. This means cheap goods in the short term, but debt/dollar buildup overseas long term. Because of this, no country can remain WRC holder forever.
+
+-   Eurodollars: Due to the petrodollar system, USDs build up in overseas bank accounts. These dollars are used by SWIFT for most international payments, and are called Eurodollars (due to the fact that most US dollars after WW2 ended up in Europe). The size of this market is roughly $14T.
+
+-   Foreign Exchange Reserves: Due to the Triffin Dilemma & structure of WRC system, dollars build up in reserve accounts of foreign central banks. Wanting to earn interest on this cash, CBs invest in treasuries, effectively lending to the US Govt at low interest rate. [$4T of these treasuries](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/BOGZ1FL263061130Q) are held by these CBs, and [$2T of these treasuries](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/BOGZ1FL263061145Q) are held by private institutions.
+
+Conclusion:
+
+If the US loses World Reserve Currency status, two things happen. 1) Foreign central banks start massively dumping their [huge Treasury/Dollar debt positions](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/BOGZ1FL263061130Q) and 2) SWIFT member banks who hold USDs for cross-border payments (EuroDollars) decide to dump them as they see the writing on the wall and see the value of their assets decreasing by the day. This is the one of the many [Swords of Damocles](https://idioms.thefreedictionary.com/a+sword+of+Damocles+hangs+over+head) hanging over the global financial system. The unraveling of these massive currency positions would truly be catastrophic. Interest rates could effectively jump to +30% or more overnight, creating an immediate solvency crisis for the US Government and most banks, corporations, and state governments who rely on low interest rate borrowing. [DXY](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/U.S._Dollar_Index) would be whipsawed violently before being forced downward by massive selling pressure from the Eurodollar market. Other currencies would be pulled higher and then lower in volatile moves matching the worst days of the early Nixon crisis. But, this is only part of the story. We will come back to this later.
+
+------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
+
+Epilogue:
+
+We've gone over a brief history of the Bretton Woods system, and it's transformation to a complete fiat money system starting in 1971. The US as a World Reserve Currency holder is allowed to borrow almost indefinitely without immediate consequence, but this creates massive amounts of US dollar debts overseas. The last time global creditors started to lose faith in the US dollar, we saw massive inflation, unemployment, and stagnation in the US, in a period of rapid demographic and economic growth in the rest of the world. If creditors become worried again, and signs are showing up that they are (more on this in PT4) the results could be catastrophic.
+
+BUY, HODL, BUCKLE UP.
+
+>>>>>>>TO BE CONTINUED >>>>>>> PART TWO
+
+(Adding this to clear up FUD- My argument is for hyperinflation to begin in a few years- this is a years- long PROCESS, and will take a long time to play out. It won't happen tomorrow, but we are in the same situation as Germany after WW1. Hyperinflation is GOOD FOR GME--- DEBT VALUE COLLAPSES, MONEY CHASES ASSETS (EQUITIES) pushing the price UP, so shorts will have to cover) BUY AND HOLD.
+
+*Nothing on this Post constitutes investment advice, performance data or any recommendation that any security, portfolio of securities, investment product, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person. From reading my Post I cannot assess anything about your personal circumstances, your finances, or your goals and objectives, all of which are unique to you, so any opinions or information contained on this Post are just that -- an opinion or information. Please consult a financial professional if you seek advice.*
+
+*If you would like to learn more, check out my recommended reading list [here](https://docs.google.com/document/d/1nSw9odLoExaq0oEBqIHrCK1Xj5KfyjBkGQZ93LTh34g/edit?usp=sharing)

DD/Hyperinflation-is-Coming-The-Dollar-Endgame-by-peruvian-bull/2021-06-24-The-Ouroboros-Part-I.md

@@ -0,0 +1,165 @@
+The Dollar Endgame PART 2 "The Ouroboros"
+=========================================
+
+| Author      | Source | 
+|  :----:     |    :----:   |        
+| [u/peruvian_bull](https://www.reddit.com/user/peruvian_bull/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/o727oc/the_dollar_endgame_part_2_the_ouroboros/) |
+
+---
+
+
+[DD 👨‍🔬](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22DD%20%F0%9F%91%A8%E2%80%8D%F0%9F%94%AC%22&restrict_sr=1)
+
+Apes, this is a continuation of my Dollar Endgame Series. You can find Part 1 [here](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/o4vzau/hyperinflation_is_coming_the_dollar_endgame_part/).
+
+I am getting increasingly worried about the amount of warning signals that are flashing red for hyperinflation- I believe the process has already begun, as I will lay out in this paper. The first stages of hyperinflation begin slowly, and as this is an exponential process, most people will not grasp the true extent of it until it is too late. I know I'm going to gloss over a lot of stuff going over this, sorry about this but I need to fit it all into four posts without giving everyone a 400 page treatise on macro-economics to read. Counter-DDs and opinions welcome. This is going to be a lot longer than a normal DD, but I promise the pay-off is worth it, knowing the history is key to understanding where we are today.
+
+SERIES (Parts 1-4) TL/DR: We are at the end of a MASSIVE debt supercycle. This 80-100 year pattern *always* ends in one of two scenarios- default/restructuring (deflation a la Great Depression) or inflation (hyperinflation in severe cases (a la Weimar Republic). The United States has been abusing it's privilege as the World Reserve Currency holder to enforce its political and economic hegemony onto the Third World, specifically by creating massive artificial demand for treasuries/US Dollars, allowing the US to borrow extraordinary amounts of money at extremely low rates for decades, creating a [Sword of Damocles](https://idioms.thefreedictionary.com/a+sword+of+Damocles+hangs+over+head) that hangs over the global financial system. The massive debt loads have been transferred worldwide, and sovereigns are starting to call our bluff. Governments papered over the 2008 financial crisis with debt, but never fixed the underlying issues, ensuring that the crisis would return, but with greater ferocity next time. Systemic risk (from derivatives) within the US financial system has built up to the point that collapse is all but inevitable, and the Federal Reserve has demonstrated it will do whatever it takes to defend legacy finance (banks, broker/dealers, etc) and government solvency, even at the expense of everything else (The US Dollar).
+
+I'll break this down into four parts. ALL of this is interconnected, so please read these in order:
+
+-   [Part One: The Global Monetary System- "A New Rome" ](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/o4vzau/hyperinflation_is_coming_the_dollar_endgame_part/)<
+
+-   Part Two: Derivatives, Systemic Risk, & Nitroglycerin- "The Ouroboros" < (YOU ARE HERE)
+
+-   Part Three: Banks, Debt Cycles & Avalanches- "The Money Machine" <
+
+-   Part Four: Financial Gravity & the Fed's Dilemma- "At World's End" <
+
+Preface:
+
+Some Terms you need to know:
+
+[Derivatives](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/derivative.asp): A derivative is a financial [security](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/security.asp) with a value that is reliant upon or derived from, an underlying asset or group of assets---a benchmark. The derivative itself is a contract between two or more parties, and the derivative derives its price from fluctuations in the underlying asset. The most common underlying assets for derivatives are stocks, bonds, commodities, currencies, interest rates, and market indexes.
+
+[Normalized Curve Distribution](https://www.simplypsychology.org/normal-distribution.html) (Bell Curve): The normal distribution is a continuous probability distribution that is symmetrical on both sides of the mean, so the right side of the center is a mirror image of the left side. The area under the normal distribution curve represents probability and the total area under the curve sums to one. (We'll go over this more in-depth later).
+
+[Value-At-Risk](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/v/var.asp) (VaR Distribution): Value at risk (VaR) is a statistic that measures and quantifies the level of financial risk within a firm, portfolio or position over a specific time frame. This metric is most commonly used by investment and commercial banks to determine the extent and occurrence ratio of potential losses in their institutional portfolios. Risk managers use VaR to measure and control the level of risk exposure.
+
+[Rehypothecation](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/r/rehypothecation.asp): Rehypothecation is a practice whereby banks and brokers use, for their own purposes, assets that have been posted as collateral by their clients. Clients who permit rehypothecation of their collateral may be compensated either through a lower cost of borrowing or a rebate on fees.
+
+[Exchange-Traded (Listed) Derivative](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/e/exchange-traded-derivative.asp): An exchange-traded derivative is merely a derivative contract that derives its value from an underlying asset that is listed on a trading exchange and guaranteed against [default](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/default2.asp) through a clearinghouse. Due to their presence on a trading exchange, ETDs differ from over-the-counter derivatives in terms of their standardized nature, higher [liquidity](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/l/liquidity.asp), and ability to be traded on the [secondary market](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/secondarymarket.asp).
+
+[Over the Counter Derivative](https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/052815/what-overthecounter-derivative.asp): An over the counter (OTC) derivative is a financial contract that does not trade on an asset exchange, and which can be tailored to each party's needs. Over the counter derivatives are instead private contracts that are negotiated between counterparties without going through an exchange or other type of formal intermediaries, although a broker may help arrange the trade.
+
+Part Two: Derivatives, Systemic Risk, and Nitroglycerin- "The Ouroboros"
+
+[![r/Superstonk - The Dollar Endgame PART 2 "The Ouroboros"](https://preview.redd.it/lscwu54x68771.png?width=626&format=png&auto=webp&s=f9b6ed88c18bc0d71ac368509af350f34644caa0)](https://preview.redd.it/lscwu54x68771.png?width=626&format=png&auto=webp&s=f9b6ed88c18bc0d71ac368509af350f34644caa0)
+
+The Ouroboros
+
+Prologue:
+
+"The [Ouroboros](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ouroboros), a Greek word meaning "tail devourer", is the ancient symbol of a snake consuming its own body in perfect symmetry. The imagery of the Ouroboros evokes the concept of the infinite nature of self-destructive feedback loops. The sign appears across cultures and is an important icon in the esoteric tradition of Alchemy. Egyptian mystics first derived the symbol from a real phenomenon in nature. In extreme heat a snake, unable to self-regulate its body temperature, will experience an out-of-control spike in its metabolism.
+
+In a state of mania, the snake is unable to differentiate its own tail from its prey, and will attack itself, self-cannibalizing until it perishes. In nature and markets, when randomness self-organizes itself into too perfect symmetry, order becomes the source of chaos, and chaos feeds on itself."-
+
+([Artemis Capital Research Paper](https://artemiscm.docsend.com/view/2b34894bzsaqsbcx)- extra credit reading, but warning, this is ADVANCED finance- you'll pop a lot of wrinkles reading it)
+
+Random Walks and Portfolio Insurance
+
+In financial markets, traders have long looked for mathematical relationships between and within assets, to aid in speculation and price prediction. As data aggregation improved, and information became more widely distributed in the 1930s and 1940s, Financial analysts quickly realized that the [stock market as a whole](https://klementoninvesting.substack.com/p/the-distribution-of-stock-market), as well as individual securities, followed [Bell Curve](https://www.simplypsychology.org/normal-distribution.html) Distributions, at least in most time periods.
+
+The performance of individual securities on a single day was essentially random, but their overall performance in a time period could be graphed, as seen below:
+
+[![r/Superstonk - The Dollar Endgame PART 2 "The Ouroboros"](https://preview.redd.it/pakm4imk28771.png?width=646&format=png&auto=webp&s=d9122a8c28e8a204bafeba369c958efdd042467c)](https://preview.redd.it/pakm4imk28771.png?width=646&format=png&auto=webp&s=d9122a8c28e8a204bafeba369c958efdd042467c)
+
+Bell Curve Distribution fitted to Market Returns
+
+This flowed logically from the concept of random events that [Brownian motion](http://web.mit.edu/8.334/www/grades/projects/projects17/OscarMickelin/brownian.html) described. In the mid- 1800s, scientist [Robert Brown](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brownian_motion) saw that particles in a fluid sub-domain bounced around randomly, with their individual movements being essentially unpredictable- these movements were completely random. Drawing on Brownian motion, mathematicians had created [Probability Theory](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Probability_theory), which could estimate the given probability (not certainty) of a set of outcomes.
+
+As an analogy, predicting the result of an individual coin toss accurately every time is essentially impossible, but if you do it 100 times, Probability theory will tell you that you have a very high probability of 50 heads and 50 tails, or something close to it (45/55 or 53/47 for example).
+
+The likelihood of 95 heads and 5 tails, an extreme outlier, would be very close to 0. This is because there is a 50% probability of either heads or tails- and thus the distribution of 100 coin flips should roughly match this probability. This theory of randomness of prices as it applied to finance came to be known as the [Random Walk Theory](https://corporatefinanceinstitute.com/resources/knowledge/trading-investing/what-is-the-random-walk-theory/)- and predicted that prices were basically completely unpredictable.
+
+Understanding this concept, traders in the 1960s observed that the probability was great that returns on a single equity security would hover between some set performance range, like -10% and +10%. Rarely did the return hit the extreme ends of the curve.
+
+It didn't matter what the time period was, 1 day, 1 month, or 1 year, the traders always had trouble reliably predicting a single future movement (like predicting heads/tails on a single coin toss), but could reliably say what the probability of variance over time (outcome of 100 coin tosses) would be, and map this mathematical distribution on a bell curve.
+
+These Bell Curve distributions, after being modified for applications in financial markets, came to be known as [Value At Risk](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/v/var.asp) (VaR) models. Over the course of the 1960s and 1970s, these [models](http://people.stern.nyu.edu/adamodar/pdfiles/papers/VAR.pdf) came to be [widely used](http://stat.wharton.upenn.edu/~steele/Courses/434/434Context/RiskManagement/VaRHistlory.pdf) in the asset management industry.
+
+Essentially what these VaR models could do was provide a statistical technique used to measure the amount of [potential loss](https://corporatefinanceinstitute.com/resources/knowledge/trading-investing/value-at-risk-var/) that could happen in an investment portfolio over a specified period of time. Value at Risk gives the probability of losing more than a given amount in a given portfolio.
+
+[![r/Superstonk - The Dollar Endgame PART 2 "The Ouroboros"](https://preview.redd.it/mrqixcou38771.png?width=626&format=png&auto=webp&s=2c452ed7175c8bec851f2e4547e80df68ac31119)](https://preview.redd.it/mrqixcou38771.png?width=626&format=png&auto=webp&s=2c452ed7175c8bec851f2e4547e80df68ac31119)
+
+Value-at-Risk Model
+
+You can see from the above that these models have "skinny tails", that is to say, they predict the likelihood of extreme events (standard deviation of 3 or more) happening as very low- especially on the downside (see above). Outlier events were thus coined "[tail risk](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/t/tailrisk.asp#:~:text=Tail%20risk%20is%20a%20form,shown%20by%20a%20normal%20distribution.)", occurrences that only show up on the far tails of the distribution. Tail risk events were shown to be SO unlikely that the fund managers basically didn't hedge for them AT ALL.
+
+These models were built using the recorded historical prices of thousands of commodities, equities, and bonds. For earlier markets, they would even plug in estimates created by econometricians (i.e. Corn prices in 1430) to arrive at a large enough data set.
+
+With this data, asset managers could feel safe utilizing leverage and complex derivatives in risky investments, as these models told them that the likelihood of severe losses (-30% for example) in a single day was near-zero. (Fundamental rule of math is you CANNOTfor certain predict future outcomes based on past experiences- but they did it anyways...)
+
+At the same time, [Eugene Fama](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eugene_Fama), an American economist freshly minted with a PhD from the University of Chicago, developed his [Efficient Markets Hypothesis](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/e/efficientmarkethypothesis.asp) in early 1970. Drawing on the random walk theory, Fama posited that since stock movements were random, it was impossible to "beat the market".
+
+Current market prices incorporated all available and future information, and thus buying undervalued stocks, or selling at inflated prices, was not feasible. [Making consistent profits was impossible](https://corporatefinanceinstitute.com/resources/knowledge/trading-investing/efficient-markets-hypothesis/)- if you made money, you just got "lucky" as the market randomly moved in your favor after you made the trade. The price, therefore, was always "right".
+
+[![r/Superstonk - The Dollar Endgame PART 2 "The Ouroboros"](https://preview.redd.it/ktn8rya048771.png?width=646&format=png&auto=webp&s=5fc831830ca80cc77b339c94874abd26d5932283)](https://preview.redd.it/ktn8rya048771.png?width=646&format=png&auto=webp&s=5fc831830ca80cc77b339c94874abd26d5932283)
+
+Efficient Market Hypothesis
+
+This further emboldened investors and whetted their risk appetite. Armed with these two theories, they started making statistical algorithms that modeled the stock market, and loaded themselves up with more risk. Starting in the early 1980s, [portfolio insurance](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/p/portfolioinsurance.asp) started to gain traction within the industry. This "insurance" basically was an automated system that [short-sold S&P 500 Index futures](https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/042115/what-caused-black-monday-stock-market-crash-1987.asp) in case of a market decline.
+
+This concept was invented by [Hayne Leland](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hayne_Leland) and Mark Rubinstein, who started a business named Leland O'Brien Rubinstein Associates (LOR) in 1980, and was developed into a computer program commonly referred to by the same acronym. They were successful in marketing this product, and by the mid-1980s, hundreds of millions of dollars of Assets Under Management ([AUM](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/a/aum.asp)) from institutions ranging from investment banks to large mutual funds were protected by this new-fangled product.
+
+LOR was a program that [dynamically hedged](https://www.glynholton.com/notes/dynamic_hedging/), i.e. would observe market conditions, and understanding it's own portfolio risk, would actively adjust in real time. Today, dynamic hedging is used by derivative dealers to hedge gamma or vega exposures. Because it involves adjusting a hedge as the underlier moves---often several times a day---it is "dynamic."
+
+The founders of LOR touted it as a program that would actively work to protect a portfolio, a "fire and forget" approach that would allow portfolio managers and traders to focus on [alpha-generation](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/a/alpha.asp) rather than worrying about potential losses.
+
+Smoothbrain summary:
+
+-   No one can accurately predict the future (ie the outcome of a single coin toss). But, you can predict the probable outcomes of a series of coin-tosses.
+
+-   Using this theory of the probability of outcomes, you can build a bell curve of probabilities of returns. Adapting this to financial markets, it comes to be called the Value-At-Risk model.
+
+-   This Value At Risk model tells you that the likelihood of a severe adverse event happening (large losses in a single day) is very low. Thus you feel safe leveraging your portfolio and buying derivatives.
+
+-   The Efficient Markets Hypothesis tells you that it is near impossible to consistently beat the market. Prices are always "right" and already incorporate all known and knowable information, so fundamental (and technical) analysis is completely useless. Thus the best way to juice returns is to load up on leverage and derivatives.
+
+-   Two experts in the fields of finance and economics create a new product called LOR, which was 'portfolio insurance' that promised to limit downside losses in case of a market collapse. Hundreds of institutions, banks, and hedge funds buy and implement LOR's dynamic hedging into their portfolio. This program short-sold S&P 500 futures in the event of a market decline.
+
+Black Monday- October 19, 1987
+
+Stock markets raced upward during the first half of 1987. By late August, the [DJIA](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dow_Jones_Industrial_Average) (Dow Jones) had gained 44 percent in a matter of seven months, stoking concerns of an asset bubble. In mid-October, a storm cloud of news reports undermined investor confidence and led to additional volatility in markets.
+
+The federal government disclosed a larger-than-expected trade deficit and the dollar fell in value. The markets began to unravel, foreshadowing the record losses that would develop a week later.
+
+Beginning on October 14, a number of markets began incurring large daily losses. On October 16, the rolling sell-offs coincided with an event known as "[triple witching](https://www.forex.com/en/market-analysis/latest-research/what-is-triple-witching/)," which describes the circumstances when monthly expirations of options and futures contracts occurred on the same day.
+
+By the end of the trading day on October 16, which was a Friday, the DJIA had lost 4.6 percent. The weekend trading break offered only a brief reprieve; Treasury Secretary James Baker on Saturday, October 17, publicly threatened to de-value the US dollar in order to narrow the nation's widening trade deficit. Then the unthinkable happened.
+
+[![r/Superstonk - The Dollar Endgame PART 2 "The Ouroboros"](https://preview.redd.it/39kpennd48771.png?width=644&format=png&auto=webp&s=05033a945abf9b7cfd4f245e6b2502e048619f40)](https://preview.redd.it/39kpennd48771.png?width=644&format=png&auto=webp&s=05033a945abf9b7cfd4f245e6b2502e048619f40)
+
+DJIA (Tradingview) - Historical Realized Volatility on the bottom scale
+
+Even before US markets opened for trading on Monday morning, stock markets in and around Asia began plunging. Additional investors moved to liquidate positions, and the number of sell orders vastly outnumbered willing buyers near previous prices, creating a cascade in stock markets.
+
+In the most severe case, [New Zealand's stock market fell 60 percent](https://www.nzherald.co.nz/indepth/business/1987-stock-market-crash/), and would take years to recover. Traders reported racing each other to the pits to sell. Author Scott Patterson describes the scene:
+
+[![r/Superstonk - The Dollar Endgame PART 2 "The Ouroboros"](https://preview.redd.it/1wcf5o2o48771.png?width=430&format=png&auto=webp&s=cbd254a4bd9fd41753c282d73cb2916af5a5891e)](https://preview.redd.it/1wcf5o2o48771.png?width=430&format=png&auto=webp&s=cbd254a4bd9fd41753c282d73cb2916af5a5891e)
+
+The Quants, pg 51
+
+Traders on the floor of the NYSE reported seeing ticker numbers spinning so fast that they were unreadable. Liquidity vanished completely from the market. Sell orders flooded in so fast the infrastructure to record them started malfunctioning.
+
+At one point, [specialists](https://www.thebalance.com/what-is-a-market-maker-and-how-do-they-make-money-4053753) (individual market makers, and at this time were people on the floor representing a firm) simply stopped picking up the phone, which was ringing with dozens of institutions begging them to sell.
+
+Dozens of stocks were frozen in time. Those that weren't were hit with massive volume. At one point, Proctor and Gamble was trading for $0.03. It had ended trading the previous Friday at $6.09. Market makers were trading off the stock prices that were recorded an hour ago, since the infrastructure was so backed up. (Check out [this episode](https://open.spotify.com/episode/7cxASLFFUrWkJaMqpUY3pW?si=plwMAktBRhGggqLbwHx8UQ&dl_branch=1) of RealVision Podcast to learn more. In fact, just go subscribe to their show and start listening from the beginning, they have one of the best finance podcasts out there).
+
+In the United States, this collapse quickly came to be known as "[Black Monday](https://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/feds/2007/200713/200713pap.pdf)", with the DJIA [finishing down 508 points, or 22.6 percent](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/stock-market-crash-1987.asp). "There is so much psychological togetherness that seems to have worked both on the up side and on the down side," Andrew Grove, Chief Executive of technology company Intel Corp., said in an interview. "It's a little like a theater where someone yells 'Fire!' (and everybody runs for the exit)".
+
+"It felt really scary," said Thomas Thrall, a senior professional at the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, who was then a trader at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. "People started to understand the interconnectedness of markets around the globe."
+
+For the first time, investors could watch on live television as a financial crisis spread market to market -- in much the same way [viruses move through human populations and computer networks](https://www.wired.com/story/how-fast-does-a-virus-spread/). ([Source](https://www.federalreservehistory.org/essays/stock-market-crash-of-1987)).
+
+Black Monday represented a catastrophic rebuttal to the mathematicians and economists who created the Random Walk Theory and Value- At- Risk models. These probability theorists had stated that events like this were improbable- so improbable in fact that their models predicted Black Monday was IMPOSSIBLE. Thus, no one in the market had hedged or expected an event as extreme as this. In fact, some theoreticians started to doubt the validity of the previously iron-clad Efficient Market Hypothesis itself. Patterson continues:
+
+[![r/Superstonk - The Dollar Endgame PART 2 "The Ouroboros"](https://preview.redd.it/egil7fww48771.png?width=380&format=png&auto=webp&s=6f5cf4b457207185aec4c4392e87bf118a8bbf90)](https://preview.redd.it/egil7fww48771.png?width=380&format=png&auto=webp&s=6f5cf4b457207185aec4c4392e87bf118a8bbf90)
+
+The Quants, pg 53
+
+Black Monday also represented a fascinating case study in the devastating effects of derivatives on financial markets. The Index Arbitrageurs, buying the S&P 500 futures being sold by portfolio insurance, had raced to short sell the underlying stock to stay net neutral. This was because by owning the S&P 500 futures, they effectively owned a small piece of every stock in the index. To [hedge](https://www.investopedia.com/trading/hedging-beginners-guide/#:~:text=Hedging%20is%20a%20risk%20management,as%20options%20and%20futures%20contracts.), they had to quickly short the underlying, so that any large loss in the index futures they owned would be offset by a gain on a short position in the individual stocks.
+
+However, the S&P 500 index itself was calculated based on the prices of the underlying securities. Thus, after Portfolio insurance sold the arbs' futures, the Index arbs short sold billions of dollars worth of stock, the S&P future market tanked, and LOR, seeing the massive volatility and downward pressure on the market, sold more and more futures, which caused the Arbs to short more and more stock. This was the unwelcome discovery of a vicious [positive feedback loop](https://biologydictionary.net/positive-feedback/), a "shadow risk" that existed beneath the surface of the market, unbeknownst to the investors who traded in it. The Ouroboros had been awakened. These feedback loops, once initiated, continued until the underlying factors have been diminished or until the agents in the system are self-destroyed.
+
+[(The second half of this post is linked here)](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/o72fc1/the_dollar_endgame_part_25_the_ouroboros/)

DD/Hyperinflation-is-Coming-The-Dollar-Endgame-by-peruvian-bull/2021-06-24-The-Ouroboros-Part-II.md

@@ -0,0 +1,149 @@
+The Dollar Endgame PART 2.5 "The Ouroboros"
+===========================================
+
+| Author      | Source | 
+|  :----:     |    :----:   |        
+| [u/peruvian_bull](https://www.reddit.com/user/peruvian_bull/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/o72fc1/the_dollar_endgame_part_25_the_ouroboros/) |
+
+---
+
+
+[DD 👨‍🔬](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22DD%20%F0%9F%91%A8%E2%80%8D%F0%9F%94%AC%22&restrict_sr=1)
+
+Apes, this is the second half of Part 2. [You can find the first half of Part 2 here](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/o727oc/the_dollar_endgame_part_2_the_ouroboros/).
+
+Derivatives and the Alchemy of Risk
+
+Derivatives are financial contracts that derive their value from an underlying security, and have existed for as long as markets have. A [futures contract](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/f/futurescontract.asp), for example, is a legal agreement to buy or sell a particular commodity asset, or security at a predetermined price at a specified time in the future. The buyer of a futures contract is taking on the obligation to buy and receive the underlying asset when the futures contract expires, and the seller of the futures contract is taking on the obligation to deliver the underlying asset at the expiration date. These contracts have been around for millenia, with the earliest recorded contract dated to [1750 BC in Mesopotamia, or modern-day Iraq](https://bebusinessed.com/history/history-futures-trading/#:~:text=Futures%20trading%20can%20be%20traced,the%20sixth%20Babylonian%20king%2C%20Hammurabi.&text=Part%20of%20that%20Code%20stipulated,price%20at%20a%20future%20date.).
+
+Say you're in a casino and you want to make money off a poker game, but you are barred from playing the actual game. So, you grab another patron (Dave) and tell him you'd like to make a bet on the outcome of the game. You really think your friend Allie will win the game, so you're willing to pony up $100 to bet on her winning. (In this example, the bet you make is the "derivative". The underlying security's returns are the results of the poker game.)
+
+Seeing your derivative bet, two other people get interested. They don't want to bet on the game, rather they want to gamble on the outcome of your bet. They create their own bet, weighing probabilities and putting in funds accordingly. This is a second-order derivative. In the modern financial system, since derivatives are basically unregulated due to the [Commodities Futures Modernization Act](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/cfma.asp), (especially OTC derivatives or second-order or higher) this process can continue ad infinitum.
+
+[![r/Superstonk - The Dollar Endgame PART 2.5 "The Ouroboros"](https://preview.redd.it/odmcqfd678771.png?width=615&format=png&auto=webp&s=c802a93608266848687f3444fbd9d4c9a80c3bbe)](https://preview.redd.it/odmcqfd678771.png?width=615&format=png&auto=webp&s=c802a93608266848687f3444fbd9d4c9a80c3bbe)
+
+Derivative Bets
+
+In doing so, the "derivative" gamblers are essentially creating leverage on the poker game. What financial institutions do with derivatives is create these bets (Derivative^2 for example) and then sell these bets to others. This is an IMMENSELY profitable business for them.
+
+When creating a portfolio, most investors worry about their loss exposure. Buying any single equity is risky, and it is reasonable to want to reduce downside risk. This is part of the reason why derivatives were created. Through [hedging](https://www.investopedia.com/trading/hedging-beginners-guide/#:~:text=Hedging%20is%20a%20risk%20management,as%20options%20and%20futures%20contracts.), traders were able to change their gross exposure into a [net exposure](https://corporatefinanceinstitute.com/resources/knowledge/trading-investing/net-exposure/). Net exposure underlines the difference (net amount) between a hedge fund's long positions and its short stock or derivative positions. Once calculated, the net exposure of a fund is usually presented in a percentage, displaying the fund's risk with regard to market fluctuations.
+
+Let's break it down. Say you are bullish on IBM. You go out and buy $50M of long dated [call options](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/calloption.asp) (commonly called [LEAPS](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/l/leaps.asp)) on IBM. Since you're afraid of losing money in case IBM misses it's earnings call, loses revenue, or experiences some other negative event while your position is open, you go and buy $40M of [put options ](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/p/putoption.asp)with the same expiry date. Thus, your new Net exposure position is only $10M long.
+
+[![r/Superstonk - The Dollar Endgame PART 2.5 "The Ouroboros"](https://preview.redd.it/ope41no978771.png?width=642&format=png&auto=webp&s=2136a19ecc25ea5fa0bff0ec5d90e7ff2a95d96d)](https://preview.redd.it/ope41no978771.png?width=642&format=png&auto=webp&s=2136a19ecc25ea5fa0bff0ec5d90e7ff2a95d96d)
+
+Net Exposure Hedging
+
+Using this mechanism, traders were able to hedge positions and reduce their theoretical risk. When you buy calls and puts, this net exposure is reduced, and at the same time, your assets increase. In the example above, your gross exposure (the gross value of the derivatives you own) will increase as you own both long calls and long puts. (Don't get this confused with being long/short or bullish/bearish a stock!! Long position for derivatives simply means YOU OWN the contract, short position means YOU OWE the contract. "Long/Short" is a general term in finance that can mean different things depending on the context!! [Read this if you're confused](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/l/long.asp))
+
+Since both these calls and puts have value that you paid for, and represent the right to exercise at strike, they are both recorded as assets on your Balance Sheet. In the example above, you OWN $50M of calls and $40M of puts- your overall derivative gross exposure is $90M. Your net exposure is only $10M. Thus you have $90M of assets (subject to market changes of course) and "net risk" of $10M. This is why Shitadel has buttloads of options on either side of every stock, they're hedging their net exposure, even when they're bullish on the underlying.
+
+There's three interrelated ways this goes seriously wrong. One is counterparty risk. A [counterparty](https://financial-dictionary.thefreedictionary.com/Counterparty) is someone who takes the opposite side of your trade- so if you are buying, they are the seller, and vice-versa. ([I wrote this DD on counterparties and clearinghouses a while ago](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nje7xk/clearinghouses_explained/)) In derivatives, if the counterparty to your trade fails, i.e. goes bankrupt, the contract will most likely not be honored. This means if you are a hedge fund, and you wrote OTC options (NOT Exchange traded-please refer to the beginning for the difference between OTC and exchange traded options, exchanged traded options are guaranteed and cleared by OCC (Options section of DTC), OTC options are NOT guaranteed, and can only be written between institutions) your $90M of calls and puts, if they were written with a single counterparty (like Bear Stearns) will now be worth NOTHING. This $90M "gross exposure" loss would represent an 800% HIGHER LOSS than the "theoretical" maximum loss of $10M which is your "Net Exposure". If an options clearinghouse which is the counterparty to all listed options fails, MILLIONS of contracts would be worthless. The TRUE RISK is counterparty risk- this is what the models don't understand.
+
+Another way this goes wrong is if the underlying fails- the results are equally catastrophic. Going back to the poker game analogy, imagine if the people playing the actual poker game left the table. Now Derivative Bet #1 is worthless, since there's nothing to bet on. Same goes with Derivative bet #2, and #3, and so on. If the Poker game had $25 in the pot, and each Derivative bet had $100 in each bet, this means that by the poker game ending, $325 worth of value was destroyed, from the elimination of just ONE REAL game worth $25. THIS is the explosive nature of derivatives.
+
+[![r/Superstonk - The Dollar Endgame PART 2.5 "The Ouroboros"](https://preview.redd.it/1i8vm7jd78771.png?width=406&format=png&auto=webp&s=08eb280d305046c39e23e456d1b25e392df179c9)](https://preview.redd.it/1i8vm7jd78771.png?width=406&format=png&auto=webp&s=08eb280d305046c39e23e456d1b25e392df179c9)
+
+Synthetic CDO Visualized
+
+Let's use the 2008 financial crisis as an example of an underlying failure. (W Homeowner goes out and gets a loan (original poker game). The bank then sells that loan to an investment bank who makes a CDO out of it (a bet on the game) which trades on the value of the underlying. Then, another bank comes along and makes a [synthetic CDO](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Synthetic_CDO) (a bet on the bet), and then takes out a Credit Default Swap on it (bet on a bet on a bet). This creates insane leverage to the underlying, and horribly dangerous results if the underlying collapses. Our beloved Dr. Trimbath puts it like this: ([Naked, Short and Greedy](https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/49089890-naked-short-and-greedy?from_search=true&from_srp=true&qid=SnVODNfAhP&rank=1) (Ch 19))
+
+[![r/Superstonk - The Dollar Endgame PART 2.5 "The Ouroboros"](https://preview.redd.it/5k5nddvi78771.png?width=379&format=png&auto=webp&s=7c257e43b6a4f9d5b9772753abcc3571c0f56ae2)](https://preview.redd.it/5k5nddvi78771.png?width=379&format=png&auto=webp&s=7c257e43b6a4f9d5b9772753abcc3571c0f56ae2)
+
+Naked, Short and Greedy pg 221
+
+A third way this system can blow up is due to cross-collateralization, where one asset is pledged to multiple entities, creating more claims than assets that exist. This process is actually very common in the futures markets- bullion banks, for example, which hold gold and silver, will write between 2-10 futures contracts for every one oz of gold in the vaults.
+
+[![r/Superstonk - The Dollar Endgame PART 2.5 "The Ouroboros"](https://preview.redd.it/l2musmvn78771.png?width=628&format=png&auto=webp&s=ea4697ebe3169000852eeb48a83c024c16fcf756)](https://preview.redd.it/l2musmvn78771.png?width=628&format=png&auto=webp&s=ea4697ebe3169000852eeb48a83c024c16fcf756)
+
+One Asset pledged to multiple parties
+
+In the example above, the bullion bank (with the gold) writes 6 futures contracts (assume 1 oz per contract) and sells them to other financial institutions, but only has a single ounce of gold in the vault. They can do this since the vast majority of the futures (~85-90%) [never get called](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0927539804000842) in for [settlement](http://www.iotafinance.com/en/Financial-Definition-settlement.html), and are instead [rolled forward](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/r/rollforward.asp) (this basically means when the old contract is about to expire, the holder sells it for cash, and then uses this money to buy a new futures contract with a different expiration date).
+
+Thus, the bank/institution writing all these futures never has to actually deliver the underlying- the gold in this case. If all the futures contracts they write are called in at once, then the 1 oz of gold is given to the buyer, and the bank who wrote the contract is on the hook to deliver all 5 oz to the firms that are owed, and is forced to go into the market to purchase it- this is called a "Contract Delivery Squeeze" as [outlined in this paper](https://static1.squarespace.com/static/555266c0e4b008b6a4552c3a/t/55626e5ae4b004a8dfc8288d/1432514138731/Gilt_Squeeze_final.pdf). If the bullion bank fails, all the futures written by it are now null and void, and the firms that weren't able to take delivery get nothing.
+
+(Side note: [Notional Value Explained](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/n/notionalvalue.asp): Notional value is a term often used to value the underlying asset in a derivatives trade. It can be the total value of a position, how much value a position controls, or an agreed-upon amount in a contract-
+
+The best explanation I've seen of this was on a recent post by [u/Criand--](https://www.reddit.com/u/Criand--/) ALL credit to him/her:
+
+------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
+
+The Market Value is the value of the derivative at its current trading price.
+
+The Notional Value is the value of the derivative if it was at its strike price.
+
+E.g. A CALL Option represents 100 shares of ABC stock with a strike of $50. Perhaps it is trading in the market at $1 per contract right now.
+
+-   Market Value= 100 shares * $1 per contract = $100
+
+-   Notional Value= 100 shares* $50 strike price= $5,000
+
+------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
+
+Nitroglycerin
+
+Imagine you go to the office one day, and see your boss (Anna) sitting there with a bottle of [nitroglycerin](https://pubchem.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/compound/Nitroglycerin). You are immediately shocked, and ask Anna what she's doing. "Are you INSANE?" you say. "That is extremely dangerous!". She smiles at you and says "Nitroglycerin is stable if not exposed to pressure or heat. It's safe on my desk, as long as I don't knock it off, it won't explode". Incredulous, you walk away. The next day she brings in another bottle. And another the day after that. Over a year, she brings in hundreds of bottles of nitroglycerin. One day, a poor intern trips on her shoes and knocks one down. The first bottle explodes- Boom. In a few milliseconds, the next one does, and the next, in a vicious chain reaction- BOOM! BOOOM! BOOOOOM!. The entire building is destroyed. THIS is the danger of derivatives.
+
+Systemic Risk
+
+The recent [Archegos Capital](https://www.wsj.com/articles/what-is-a-total-return-swap-and-how-did-archegos-capital-use-it-11617125839) debacle was a classic example of the destructive power of derivatives. Using contracts like [Total Return Swaps](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/t/totalreturnswap.asp), Bill Hwang was able to leverage his fund [more than 8x](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-05-06/archegos-fallout-crimps-hedge-fund-leverage-as-banks-curb-risks), making bets on the performance of a variety of Chinese and American equities. When the equities lost value, his fund was obliterated- a mere 12.5% drop in the underlying resulted in a complete loss of capital. But, his fund wasn't the only firm affected- Credit Suisse was his counterparty, and thus lost more than [$5.5 Billion, and counting.](https://www.wsj.com/articles/credit-suisses-5-5-billion-archegos-hit-enters-big-league-of-bank-losses-11619256601) If derivatives are an explosive bottle, counterparty risk is a fuse- one that always runs to another bottle of Nitroglycerin.
+
+The modern financial system is effectively a complex network of institutions, tied to each other through these complex derivative contracts. [GSIBs](https://www.fsb.org/2020/11/2020-list-of-global-systemically-important-banks-g-sibs/) (Globally Systemic Important Banks) are the largest entities in the system, tied directly to thousands of institutions, and indirectly to hundreds of thousands. Here's a fascinating map from an [IMF White Paper on the GSIBs' interconnectedness:](https://www.imf.org/~/media/Files/Publications/WP/2017/wp17210.ashx)
+
+[![r/Superstonk - The Dollar Endgame PART 2.5 "The Ouroboros"](https://preview.redd.it/wyuqw4lx78771.png?width=546&format=png&auto=webp&s=dfa4c60bb2948d77953ac7c000b5080997d70194)](https://preview.redd.it/wyuqw4lx78771.png?width=546&format=png&auto=webp&s=dfa4c60bb2948d77953ac7c000b5080997d70194)
+
+IMF White Paper, 2016. (See legend for details)
+
+The entire derivatives market is HUGE. The BIS estimated the total notional value of the [OTC derivatives market](https://www.bis.org/publ/otc_hy1911.htm) to be $640 Trillion in 2019! And that doesn't even include exchange-listed derivatives like most common option contracts. More sober estimates put it somewhere north of $1 Quadrillion. [Visual Capitalist has a great graph that demonstrates the monstrosity of this number. ](https://www.visualcapitalist.com/all-of-the-worlds-money-and-markets-in-one-visualization-2020/)Numbers of this size are hard to wrap your head around- this is equivalent to a million billion, or a thousand trillion- for reference, the US economy is around [$22 Trillion](https://www.thebalance.com/us-economy-facts-4067797) and the world economy is estimated to be [$88 Trillion](https://www.visualcapitalist.com/the-88-trillion-world-economy-in-one-chart/)- thus the entire world economy could fit into the notional derivatives market 11x over and STILL not reach it. Every single bank is exposed, either directly or indirectly, to this market. For example, [Deutsche Bank ALONE has over $47 Trillion in Notional gross exposure](https://www.wsj.com/articles/does-deutsche-bank-have-a-47-trillion-derivatives-problem-1475689629)- TWICE the size of the entire US Economy!
+
+Through the magic of financial engineering, Deutsche is able to create a net exposure of only [$22 Billion](https://www.marketwatch.com/story/deutsche-bank-pegs-its-derivatives-exposure-at-about-22-billion-and-faces-challenges-in-shedding-those-assets-2019-07-26), equivalent to 0.046% of the notional. Thus, although on paper its risk is extremely small, the actual risk to the firm is enough to wipe it out basically overnight. This is what happened to institutions like [AIG in the 2008 crisis](https://insight.kellogg.northwestern.edu/article/what-went-wrong-at-aig) - they insured more products than they could ever cover, and when the firms they insured came calling they were quickly forced into bankruptcy, requiring a [$182 Billion bailout from the Federal Reserve](https://www.thebalance.com/aig-bailout-cost-timeline-bonuses-causes-effects-3305693).
+
+If the hedge funds with derivatives exposure (like Archegos) are the equivalent of an office rigged with nitroglycerin, the banks are stadiums full of 50 gallons drums of this shit- and the DTCC/ICC/OCC are the equivalent of a nuke. Counterparty risk, in the form of fuses, runs between all of them. What happens when enough factors on the system start to apply too much pressure? BOOM.
+
+[![r/Superstonk - The Dollar Endgame PART 2.5 "The Ouroboros"](https://preview.redd.it/5v1y6jl288771.png?width=619&format=png&auto=webp&s=5f5d79be62330c3b5d940e8291e5f09e8098df44)](https://preview.redd.it/5v1y6jl288771.png?width=619&format=png&auto=webp&s=5f5d79be62330c3b5d940e8291e5f09e8098df44)
+
+Los Alamos Testing Grounds, Nuclear Bomb
+
+Why hasn't anything happened?
+
+This is the question most people ask themselves when they first learn about this. The reason is actually very simple. As long as money keeps flowing into the Casino, the gamblers feel little risk, so no one pulls out. The Fed continues to print money, equity/bond prices continue to rise, and since there's "no risk" of the underlying falling in value, everyone keeps their money in the pot, and the poker game continues.
+
+The profits made from derivatives trading are enormous, and any bank that stopped doing this would quickly lose investors, because they would instantly take their capital out and take it to another bank that actually is profitable. It's all a confidence game- as long as everyone is confident, prices keep rising, and the cash keeps pumping in, the party will continue.
+
+Warren Buffet famously turned down calls to buy Lehman Brothers during the darkest days of the Financial Crisis- he understood a key concept, that derivatives (especially when they make up the majority of your fund (hey Kenny :) ) are equivalent to Financial [Weapons of Mass Destruction](https://www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/economics-and-finance/financial-weapons-of-mass-destruction-brexit-and-the-looming-derivatives-threat), able to destroy entire firms, and indeed entire systems, in one fell swoop.
+
+[![r/Superstonk - The Dollar Endgame PART 2.5 "The Ouroboros"](https://preview.redd.it/7w246k8788771.png?width=520&format=png&auto=webp&s=eb53cda3ac21b700914e06661121670f92e2a858)](https://preview.redd.it/7w246k8788771.png?width=520&format=png&auto=webp&s=eb53cda3ac21b700914e06661121670f92e2a858)
+
+Quote from Berkshire Hathaway Shareholder Letter, 2002
+
+In the tumultuous month of October 2008, this system was beginning to unravel. The money draining out of the financial system due to bank runs and frozen credit lending started to light fires in multiple financial institutions. The bombs that were Bear Sterns, AIG and Lehman had already blown up, and the fire was spreading through counterparty risk throughout the system. In fact, we were getting dangerously close to hitting the switch on the nuclear warhead- As Timothy Geitner (Pres of New York Fed) put it, "[We were a few days away from the ATMs not working](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QozGSS7QY_U)" (start video at 46:07). (Seriously, go watch this documentary. Its fucking AMAZING).
+
+And the worst part of all of this? Even to this day, Regulators, and indeed even financial industry insiders, are completely blind to the risk. OTC Derivatives are essentially unregulated- NO ONE knows the true size of this market. Worse yet, the traders inside the bank are using optimistic versions of the Efficient Market Hypothesis and VaR models to estimate their risk, which comes out to essentially 0 due to the risk models and net exposure hedging. Thus, they pile on more risk every day, ensuring that this problem continues to grow-- until the entire system explodes.
+
+Smoothbrain Overview:
+
+-   Analysts noticed statistical patterns in stocks. Small moves (1%) were much more common than large moves (20%). They created models called Value-at Risk, which predicted extreme losses were not just unlikely, they were virtually IMPOSSIBLE. Thus Fund managers feel more confident, and gamble on riskier and riskier investments. The Financial Services Industry STILL uses these VaR models today.
+
+-   Eugene Fama creates the Efficient Market Hypothesis. Since prices are "random" they are unpredictable- and also always "right". Thus there is no way to beat the market, the best thing one can do is leverage up and ride the market up.
+
+-   Certain market dynamics like index arbitrage, counterparty risk, and shorting (both legit and naked) create positive feedback loops, processes that feed on themselves EXPONENTIALLY ('The Ouroboros') to the upside or downside. These processes can lead to extreme dislocations in price movement, like a short squeeze (GME) or a rapid equity market collapse (Black Monday).
+
+-   Derivatives are created with the goal of reducing risk, and they do, to a certain extent, but they also amplify risk- and create potential losses multiples greater than what the fund managers expected.
+
+-   Through hedging, traders believe they reduce net exposure and thus overall firm risk. After hedging, they feel safe buying exotic financial products and leveraging the firm even more. They believe that their ONLY RISK is Net Exposure- but the TRUE RISK is Gross expsoure- They essentially are BLIND to the real exposure of the firm.
+
+-   The entire financial system is filled to the brim with derivatives- everyone is exposed. The total notional market is estimated to be somewhere around $1 Quadrillion, with some estimates putting it even higher. This represents what Buffet called "[A Time Bomb](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/derivativestimebomb.asp)" in the market- as long as money flows in, the party continues. Once it stops, the Weapons of Financial Destruction are unleashed.
+
+Conclusion:
+
+The modern international financial system, unhinged from the fetters of regulation and oversight, has created a derivatives monster whose tendrils reach across the globe. Fed by the incessant money printer and holding the retirement funds of generations, this machine continues to bet, in ever-increasing amounts, in the greatest casino ever created. This monster, as long as it is nourished by cheap credit and ever increasing flows of cash from the Federal Reserve, will continue to grow. This is part of the reason why I believe the Fed is in the endgame- they KNOW that they cannot turn off the liquidity hose, as they would risk destroying the system in its entirety. They have to convince themselves and the market with constant assurances that inflation will remain low, risk is non-existent, and their balance sheet can continue to grow without consequence. Secretly, just like Citadel and Melvin, they are starting to realize they are in a burning building with no way out.
+
+BUY, HODL, BUCKLE UP.
+
+>>>>>>>TO BE CONTINUED >>>>>>> PART THREE "THE MONEY MACHINE"
+
+(Adding this to clear up FUD- My argument is for hyperinflation to begin in a few years- this is a years- long PROCESS, and will take a long time to play out. It won't happen tomorrow, but we are in the same situation as Germany after WW1. Hyperinflation is GOOD FOR GME--- DEBT VALUE COLLAPSES, MONEY CHASES ASSETS (EQUITIES) pushing the price UP, so shorts will have to cover) BUY AND HOLD.
+
+*Nothing on this Post constitutes investment advice, performance data or any recommendation that any security, portfolio of securities, investment product, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person. From reading my Post I cannot assess anything about your personal circumstances, your finances, or your goals and objectives, all of which are unique to you, so any opinions or information contained on this Post are just that -- an opinion or information. Please consult a financial professional if you seek advice.*
+
+*If you would like to learn more, check out my recommended reading list [here](https://docs.google.com/document/d/1nSw9odLoExaq0oEBqIHrCK1Xj5KfyjBkGQZ93LTh34g/edit?usp=sharing). This is a dummy google account, so feel free to share with friends- none of my personal information is attached. You can also check out a Google docs version of my[ Endgame Series here](https://docs.google.com/document/d/1552Gu7F2cJV5Bgw93ZGgCONXeenPdjKBbhbUs6shg6s/edit?usp=sharing).

DD/Hyperinflation-is-Coming-The-Dollar-Endgame-by-peruvian-bull/2021-07-09-The-Money-Machine-Part-I.md

@@ -0,0 +1,169 @@
+Hyperinflation Is Coming- The Dollar Endgame PART 3 - "The Money Machine"
+=========================================================================
+
+| Author      | Source | 
+|  :----:     |    :----:   |        
+| [u/peruvian_bull](https://www.reddit.com/user/peruvian_bull/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/ogzoco/hyperinflation_is_coming_the_dollar_endgame_part/) |
+
+---
+
+
+[DD 👨‍🔬](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22DD%20%F0%9F%91%A8%E2%80%8D%F0%9F%94%AC%22&restrict_sr=1)
+
+I am getting increasingly worried about the amount of warning signals that are flashing red for hyperinflation- I believe the process has already begun, as I will lay out in this paper. The first stages of hyperinflation begin slowly, and as this is an exponential process, most people will not grasp the true extent of it until it is too late. I know I'm going to gloss over a lot of stuff going over this, sorry about this but I need to fit it all into four posts without giving everyone a 400 page treatise on macro-economics to read. Counter-DDs and opinions welcome. This is going to be a lot longer than a normal DD, but I promise the pay-off is worth it, knowing the history is key to understanding where we are today.
+
+SERIES (Parts 1-4) TL/DR: We are at the end of a MASSIVE debt supercycle. This 80-100 year pattern *always* ends in one of two scenarios- default/restructuring (deflation a la Great Depression) or inflation (hyperinflation in severe cases (a la Weimar Republic). The United States has been abusing it's privilege as the World Reserve Currency holder to enforce its political and economic hegemony onto the Third World, specifically by creating massive artificial demand for treasuries/US Dollars, allowing the US to borrow extraordinary amounts of money at extremely low rates for decades, creating a [Sword of Damocles](https://idioms.thefreedictionary.com/a+sword+of+Damocles+hangs+over+head) that hangs over the global financial system.
+
+The massive debt loads have been transferred worldwide, and sovereigns are starting to call our bluff. Governments papered over the 2008 financial crisis with debt, but never fixed the underlying issues, ensuring that the crisis would return, but with greater ferocity next time. Systemic risk (from derivatives) within the US financial system has built up to the point that collapse is all but inevitable, and the Federal Reserve has demonstrated it will do whatever it takes to defend legacy finance (banks, broker/dealers, etc) and government solvency, even at the expense of everything else (The US Dollar).
+
+I'll break this down into four parts. ALL of this is interconnected, so please read these in order:
+
+[Part One: The Global Monetary System- "A New Rome" <](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/o4vzau/hyperinflation_is_coming_the_dollar_endgame_part/)
+
+[Part Two: Derivatives, Systemic Risk, & Nitroglycerin- "The Ouroboros" <](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/o727oc/the_dollar_endgame_part_2_the_ouroboros/)
+
+Part Three: Banks, Debt Cycles & Avalanches- "The Money Machine" < (YOU ARE HERE)
+
+Part Four: Financial Gravity & the Fed's Dilemma- "At World's End" <
+
+(side note: Part 2 *mysteriously* disappeared TWICE and thus got low visibility -- if you missed it please go back and read before continuing!)
+
+Preface:
+
+[Fractional Reserve Banking:](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/f/fractionalreservebanking.asp) Fractional reserve banking is a system in which only a fraction of [bank deposits](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/b/bank-deposits.asp) are backed by actual cash on hand and available for withdrawal. This is done to theoretically expand the economy by freeing capital for lending.
+
+[Debt/Credit Cycles: ](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/credit-cycle.asp)A credit cycle describes the phases of access to credit by borrowers. Credit cycles first go through periods in which funds are relatively easy to borrow; these periods are characterized by lower interest rates, lowered lending requirements, and an increase in the amount of available credit, which stimulates a general expansion of economic activity. These periods are followed by a [contraction](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/contraction.asp) in the availability of funds.
+
+[Quantitative Easing (QE)](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/q/quantitative-easing.asp): Quantitative easing (QE) is a form of unconventional [monetary policy](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/m/monetarypolicy.asp) in which a central bank purchases longer-term [securities](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/security.asp) from the open market in order to increase the money supply and encourage lending and investment. Buying these securities adds new money to the economy, and also serves to lower interest rates by bidding up fixed-income securities. It also expands the central bank's balance sheet.
+
+[Quantitative Tightening (QT):](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/t/tightmonetarypolicy.asp) This is the inverse of QE- The central bank tightens policy by raising short-term interest rates. Boosting interest rates increases the cost of borrowing and effectively reduces its attractiveness. Tight monetary policy can be implemented via selling assets on the central bank's balance sheet to the market through [open market operations](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/o/openmarketoperations.asp) (OMO).
+
+[Bank Reserves: ](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/b/bank-reserve.asp)Bank reserves are the cash minimums that financial institutions must have on hand in order to meet [central bank](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/centralbank.asp) requirements. This is real money that must be kept by the bank in a vault on-site or held in its account at the central bank. Cash reserves requirements are intended to ensure that every bank can meet any large and unexpected demand for withdrawals.
+
+Prologue:
+
+[![r/Superstonk - Hyperinflation Is Coming- The Dollar Endgame PART 3 - "The Money Machine"](https://preview.redd.it/4f6leb97u7a71.png?width=621&format=png&auto=webp&s=1510c2e35a7ddb551b91f773b534454eb04f0862)](https://preview.redd.it/4f6leb97u7a71.png?width=621&format=png&auto=webp&s=1510c2e35a7ddb551b91f773b534454eb04f0862)
+
+The Impossible Object
+
+"The global financial markets walk on the razor's edge between empiricism and what you see is not what you think. The Impossible Object in art is an illustration that highlights the limitations of human perception and is an appropriate construct for our modern capitalist dystopia. The fundamental characteristic of the impossible object is uncertainty of perception. Is it feasible for a real waterfall to flow into itself; or a triangle to twist itself in both directions? Modern financial markets are a game of impossible objects.
+
+In a world where global central banks manipulate the cost of risk, the mechanics of price discovery have disengaged from reality resulting in paradoxical expressions of value that should not exist according to efficient market theory. Fear and safety are now interchangeable in a speculative and high stakes game of perception. What you see is not what exists, and what exists cannot be understood" - ([Artemis Capital](https://artemiscm.docsend.com/view/74nw2t766wnvnuwj))
+
+Banking and Debt Cycles
+
+The modern banking system can trace its [origins to the early days of the Renaissance](https://www.jstor.org/stable/2589849), in Northern Italy. There, in affluent trading cities such as Florence, Venice, and Genoa, traders dealing solely in finance set up benches (called bancas in Italian- where the modern word bank comes from) financing voyages, engaging in arbitrage, and funding ship-building for merchants.
+
+[Banks of that period](https://www.cobdencentre.org/2016/10/a-history-of-fractional-reserve-banking-or-why-interest-rates-are-the-most-important-influence-on-stock-market-valuations-part-1/) dealt almost exclusively in gold and silver coins, and traded these coins freely for foreign coins stamped by a different King. They quickly realized that dealing in physical coins was costly, burdensome, and dangerous, as thieves would often rob money-laden wagons between towns.
+
+So, they came up with an innovative solution. Instead of handing over coins to their customers, they would ask that the customer place their gold or silver in the bank's vault, which already stored the bank's own money, and in return the bank would hand them a banknote, or a physical receipt of ownership of the gold. The customer could then take this note and pay for real goods or services someplace else instead of carrying the coins.
+
+[![r/Superstonk - Hyperinflation Is Coming- The Dollar Endgame PART 3 - "The Money Machine"](https://preview.redd.it/7m6dwadbu7a71.png?width=540&format=png&auto=webp&s=2ff1bce0f82affd05fb25afe13cd3905fc3d716d)](https://preview.redd.it/7m6dwadbu7a71.png?width=540&format=png&auto=webp&s=2ff1bce0f82affd05fb25afe13cd3905fc3d716d)
+
+Early Venetian Banks
+
+[The banks quickly saw a loophole](https://www.mercatus.org/publications/monetary-policy/fractional-reserve-banking)- no one was auditing their vaults, and comparing how much gold was there versus how many notes the bank had issued. The financiers immediately began to issue more notes than gold in the vault. This system would work fine as long as every customer had confidence in their banknote and believed that the gold backing their coins was actually there.
+
+But, once the bank started facing financial troubles, and customers showed up to redeem their notes for gold, a bank run would immediately begin- with many clients ending up with worthless pieces of paper after the vaults were emptied. Authorities created extreme punishments for bankers caught issuing more notes than gold in the vault - in some places in Medieval Italy, death penalties were enforced for bankers caught issuing too many notes- in others, life in prison was the punishment.
+
+Our modern financial system is based on the early Italian antecedents. Most people believe that when you deposit funds into the bank, the money stays in your account. In reality, the funds you invest are immediately lent out, re-deposited, and lent out again. This is called [Fractional Reserve Banking](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/f/fractionalreservebanking.asp#:~:text=Fractional%20reserve%20banking%20is%20a,by%20freeing%20capital%20for%20lending.). Thus, the "money" you see in your bank account is a lie. It isn't really there.
+
+Let's break down how this works. Say you earn $1000 from a recent paycheck. You go to your bank and deposit these funds. The next day, the bank takes $900 (90%) of the cash you deposited and loans it out, keeping 10% in reserve in case you come to withdraw some of it.
+
+This money is given to Person #1, who takes this loan and buys some paint for his house. The vendor who sold him the paint then takes the $900 received and deposits it in the bank. The bank then repeats the process, loaning out 90% of the money, or $810 to Person #3, who spends/invests it with Person #4, who deposits it again, and the process repeats. Here it is visualized:
+
+[![r/Superstonk - Hyperinflation Is Coming- The Dollar Endgame PART 3 - "The Money Machine"](https://preview.redd.it/mg5mvzdgu7a71.png?width=621&format=png&auto=webp&s=c4b38b5cc8349a22b39f6e038de906b4aeb0be11)](https://preview.redd.it/mg5mvzdgu7a71.png?width=621&format=png&auto=webp&s=c4b38b5cc8349a22b39f6e038de906b4aeb0be11)
+
+Fractional Reserve Banking
+
+All along the way, the bank is able to take the same dollar bills and re-loan it out through multiple transactions (a la rehypothecation), and charge interest on the loans it creates. This is essentially a near- infinite money glitch in the system, and allows banks to make exorbitant profits, like [JP Morgan making over $12B in Q4 2020 alone](https://www.jpmorganchase.com/content/dam/jpmc/jpmorgan-chase-and-co/investor-relations/documents/quarterly-earnings/2020/4th-quarter/276305ed-730d-4acc-887c-1671d6c39e53.pdf). However, this process also serves to GREATLY increase systemic risk- in the example above, one single $1000 transaction is turned into what APPEARS as $3,439 in bank accounts, but is actually just credit, re-deposited and re-borrowed over and over again.
+
+[Here's another way to visualize it](https://capturethemind.wordpress.com/2015/07/18/fractional-reserve-banking-one-of-the-biggest-frauds-of-man-kind/):
+
+[![r/Superstonk - Hyperinflation Is Coming- The Dollar Endgame PART 3 - "The Money Machine"](https://preview.redd.it/vbzys1iju7a71.png?width=616&format=png&auto=webp&s=6f9031fd218bb645ec619fbb3442588d8e06338b)](https://preview.redd.it/vbzys1iju7a71.png?width=616&format=png&auto=webp&s=6f9031fd218bb645ec619fbb3442588d8e06338b)
+
+Money Rehypothecation
+
+Typically, the majority of a banks' capital provided to businesses will be business loans, lines of credit, or venture financing. These business loans will be put to work to expand factories, build new products, hire workers, or create intellectual property- generally things that expand economic growth.
+
+[![r/Superstonk - Hyperinflation Is Coming- The Dollar Endgame PART 3 - "The Money Machine"](https://preview.redd.it/ogqr9ubnu7a71.png?width=618&format=png&auto=webp&s=61c1dfb9e988f1ac18da86c367f1fb4906f7757e)](https://preview.redd.it/ogqr9ubnu7a71.png?width=618&format=png&auto=webp&s=61c1dfb9e988f1ac18da86c367f1fb4906f7757e)
+
+Most of the money exists as debt
+
+This effectively means that the vast majority of what we "think" of as money,[ is not cash, but credit.](https://getmoneyrich.com/economy-and-short-term-debt-cycles/) Most funds in the system, thus, exist in the form of debt.
+
+Another effect of Fractional Reserve banking is a supercharging of the debt cycle. Because banks are allowed to loan and re-loan cash that is deposited, banks are able to create massive amounts of credit, helping to boost economic growth in the boom stage, and worsen economic decline in a bust.
+
+The Debt Cycle is a economic phenomenon that has been observed for centuries- [in ancient Israel,](https://digitalcommons.csbsju.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1033&context=obsculta) for example, the state enforced a debt "jubilee" every fifty years (a long human lifespan) to dissolve all debts, release people from bondage, and restore ancestral lands to the descendants.
+
+There are two main cycles- the long term "super" cycle, which lasts between 50-80 years (longer in countries with higher life expectancy, so most developed countries this is 80 years) and the short term "normal" cycle, which occurs every 8-10 years or so.
+
+[![r/Superstonk - Hyperinflation Is Coming- The Dollar Endgame PART 3 - "The Money Machine"](https://preview.redd.it/hz3efxltu7a71.png?width=554&format=png&auto=webp&s=31d2c3fb4c8c6e22b563723847267feed31ed448)](https://preview.redd.it/hz3efxltu7a71.png?width=554&format=png&auto=webp&s=31d2c3fb4c8c6e22b563723847267feed31ed448)
+
+Debt Cycles
+
+The credit cycle undergoes both expansionary and contractionary phases. Let's take a look at the four phases of a typical [credit cycle](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/credit-cycle.asp).
+
+Expansion: Under strong economic conditions, corporate cash flows improve due to strong consumer confidence and the increase in financial institutions' lending efforts. Easier access to capital markets fosters an ideal environment for business growth and increase in financial leverage for enterprises.
+
+Downturn: The credit cycle downturn is typically due to an economic slowdown or potential recession, which leads to tighter credit standards. Since the credit downturn is often preceded by peak business expansion and high financial leverage, the slow business growth and low earnings experienced by businesses could lead to potential defaults.
+
+Repair: The credit cycle downturn is followed by the repair phase, which simply indicates the emergence from the economic downturn. Here, companies start to focus on strengthening their balance sheets by cutting costs and reducing financial leverage.
+
+Recovery: In the recovery phase, confidence levels start to improve as corporate balance sheets begin to look better with relatively low financial leverage. Financial institutions also tend to start loosening their lending standards.
+
+Let's look at the US as an example. As you can [see below](https://blogs.cfainstitute.org/investor/2019/08/05/edward-altman-where-are-we-in-the-credit-cycle/), as we continue through the expansion phase of the credit cycle, companies borrow more debt to invest in new products or services. Once a recession hits, many of these businesses are forced to de-lever (pay back debts) and those which aren't able to de-lever, go into bankruptcy. (notice we are LONG overdue for a recession and bankruptcy spike)
+
+[![r/Superstonk - Hyperinflation Is Coming- The Dollar Endgame PART 3 - "The Money Machine"](https://preview.redd.it/bszlb98wu7a71.png?width=609&format=png&auto=webp&s=9fe0f78c85e4a5d0cb4311e9c7ce273069acbab2)](https://preview.redd.it/bszlb98wu7a71.png?width=609&format=png&auto=webp&s=9fe0f78c85e4a5d0cb4311e9c7ce273069acbab2)
+
+Bankruptcy Cycles
+
+The Great Depression
+
+The last debt supercycle began [cresting in the 1930s](https://www.lynalden.com/great-depression/). The US appeared to be poised for economic recovery following the stock market crash of 1929, until a series of bank panics in the [fall of 1930 turned the recovery into the beginning of the Great Depression](https://www.econlib.org/library/Enc/GreatDepression.html).
+
+[![r/Superstonk - Hyperinflation Is Coming- The Dollar Endgame PART 3 - "The Money Machine"](https://preview.redd.it/gffgb6yyu7a71.png?width=618&format=png&auto=webp&s=6a201c6ee8008617e8d6f0c2056bba4df5bbbb39)](https://preview.redd.it/gffgb6yyu7a71.png?width=618&format=png&auto=webp&s=6a201c6ee8008617e8d6f0c2056bba4df5bbbb39)
+
+When the crisis began, over 8,000 commercial banks belonged to the [Federal Reserve System](https://www.federalreserveeducation.org/about-the-fed/structure-and-functions), but nearly 16,000 did not. Those nonmember banks operated in an environment similar to that which existed before the Federal Reserve was established in 1914. That environment harbored the causes of banking crises.
+
+One cause was the practice of counting checks in the process of collection as part of banks' cash reserves. These 'floating' checks were counted in the reserves of two banks, the one in which the check was deposited and the one on which the check was drawn. In reality, however, the cash resided in only one bank.
+
+Bankers at the time referred to the reserves composed of float as fictitious reserves (again, rehypothecation anyone?). The quantity of fictitious reserves rose throughout the 1920s and peaked just before the financial crisis in 1930. This meant that the banking system as a whole had fewer cash (or real) reserves available in emergencies.
+
+[![r/Superstonk - Hyperinflation Is Coming- The Dollar Endgame PART 3 - "The Money Machine"](https://preview.redd.it/0zn082jfv7a71.png?width=621&format=png&auto=webp&s=93feba293b300dcc2878e402144b9647b67a13cd)](https://preview.redd.it/0zn082jfv7a71.png?width=621&format=png&auto=webp&s=93feba293b300dcc2878e402144b9647b67a13cd)
+
+Bank Run (Suspension of Accts)
+
+Another issue was the inability to mobilize bank reserves in times of crisis. Nonmember banks kept a portion of their reserves as cash in their vaults and the bulk of their reserves as deposits in "correspondent banks" in designated cities. Many, but not all, of the ultimate correspondents belonged to the Federal Reserve System.
+
+This reserve pyramid limited country banks' access to reserves during times of crisis. When a bank needed cash, because its customers were panicking and withdrawing funds en masse, the bank had to turn to its correspondent, which might be faced with requests from many banks simultaneously or might be beset by depositor runs itself.
+
+[![r/Superstonk - Hyperinflation Is Coming- The Dollar Endgame PART 3 - "The Money Machine"](https://preview.redd.it/dca38vzkv7a71.png?width=639&format=png&auto=webp&s=9f3a808d29d1da1fe48a6c7adb37a5617a94c768)](https://preview.redd.it/dca38vzkv7a71.png?width=639&format=png&auto=webp&s=9f3a808d29d1da1fe48a6c7adb37a5617a94c768)
+
+Bank Suspensions
+
+On November 7, 1930, one of Caldwell's (a large financial conglomerate that lost millions in stock market speculation) principal subsidiaries, the Bank of Tennessee (Nashville) closed its doors. On November 12 and 17, Caldwell affiliates in Knoxville, Tennessee, and Louisville, Kentucky, also failed.
+
+The failures of these institutions triggered a correspondent bank cascade that forced scores of commercial banks to suspend operations. In communities where these banks closed, depositors panicked and withdrew funds en masse from other banks. Panic spread from town to town. Within a few weeks, hundreds of banks suspended operations. About one-third of these organizations reopened within a few months, but the majority were liquidated ([Source](https://www.federalreservehistory.org/essays/banking-panics-1930-31)). Businesses that relied on loan financing started to collapse, and unemployment started to climb.
+
+[![r/Superstonk - Hyperinflation Is Coming- The Dollar Endgame PART 3 - "The Money Machine"](https://preview.redd.it/nc8mr0yov7a71.png?width=621&format=png&auto=webp&s=067a8cf9a4450b0f83516349305423f0a8a4b77a)](https://preview.redd.it/nc8mr0yov7a71.png?width=621&format=png&auto=webp&s=067a8cf9a4450b0f83516349305423f0a8a4b77a)
+
+Soup Line
+
+What followed was a protracted period of bank runs and panics lasting for years. Contrary to common belief, not all bank runs happened at the same time- some banks experienced one or two runs- others more than that. The Great Depression was a series of panics, rather, that culminated in a near-complete collapse of the banking system and a ban on gold as legal tender by FDR in [Executive Order 6102](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Executive_Order_6102).
+
+In the wake of the crisis, several key financial reforms were made. Among them were the creation of FDIC ([Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/f/fdic.asp)) which was created in 1933 to "insure" bank deposits with government funds. This, it was hypothesized, would stop bank runs and restore confidence in the system. Another reform was the creation of the [Glass- Steagall Act](https://www.federalreservehistory.org/essays/glass-steagall-act), a key legal provision that forced commercial and investment banks to remain separate entities.
+
+[![r/Superstonk - Hyperinflation Is Coming- The Dollar Endgame PART 3 - "The Money Machine"](https://preview.redd.it/9vjwadgrv7a71.png?width=539&format=png&auto=webp&s=6ae445fd88ae1b67eb88ccbff5f778324a6ae1c5)](https://preview.redd.it/9vjwadgrv7a71.png?width=539&format=png&auto=webp&s=6ae445fd88ae1b67eb88ccbff5f778324a6ae1c5)
+
+Signing of Glass-Steagall
+
+However, both of these in time would serve to further increase risk, not reduce it. The FDIC, for example, insured $100k (later updated to $250K during 2008) of bank deposits. This was supposedly done for the benefit of the client, but many overlook that it also greatly benefited the bank. When you deposit cash into a bank, it is an asset to you- but to the bank, this is a liability- it represents a cash amount that they will have to pay out to you upon your request. By insuring the deposit, the bank gets essentially free insurance on their liabilities, which allows them to justify taking more leverage.
+
+Glass- Steagall's separation of banks was an amazing step at reforming the system- sadly, it was [repealed in 1999](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aftermath_of_the_repeal_of_the_Glass%E2%80%93Steagall_Act) by Bill Clinton under the [Gramm--Leach--Bliley Act](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gramm%E2%80%93Leach%E2%80%93Bliley_Act) (GLBA). Commercial banks are where you deposit funds, get mortgages, small business loans, and personal lines of credit- Investment banks are firms that underwrite financial transactions, create derivatives, and speculate in the market.
+
+By combining the two, banks are essentially allowed to bet with depositors' money- and if they fail, they can rightly justify to regulators that their collapse would end in financial calamity for millions of working-class depositors who would lose everything since their accounts would be suspended. Thus, they become "Too Big to Fail" and receive Federal Govt bailouts, no matter how reckless they have been.
+
+([Second half of Part 3 to be posted shortly, linked here](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/oh0m2s/hyperinflation_is_coming_the_dollar_endgame_part/))
+
+(Side note: I've been accused of being a shill/FUD spreader for the first two posts- please know this is NOT my intention! I cleared this series with Mods, ([PROOF](https://drive.google.com/file/d/1HlM0vR0Mguo83k6KKKQg5HKyCZaLrOHQ/view?usp=sharing)) but if you think this is FUD/SHILLY then downvote/comment and we can discuss further.)

DD/Hyperinflation-is-Coming-The-Dollar-Endgame-by-peruvian-bull/2021-07-09-The-Money-Machine-Part-II.md

@@ -0,0 +1,232 @@
+Hyperinflation Is Coming- The Dollar Endgame Part 3.5- "The Money Machine"
+==========================================================================
+
+| Author      | Source | 
+|  :----:     |    :----:   |        
+| [u/peruvian_bull](https://www.reddit.com/user/peruvian_bull/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/oh0m2s/hyperinflation_is_coming_the_dollar_endgame_part/) |
+
+---
+
+[DD 👨‍🔬](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22DD%20%F0%9F%91%A8%E2%80%8D%F0%9F%94%AC%22&restrict_sr=1)
+
+[(Apes, this is a continuation of Part 3, please find the first half of Part 3 here)](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/ogzoco/hyperinflation_is_coming_the_dollar_endgame_part/)
+
+The Money Illusion
+
+[In 2008](https://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/08/11/debt-in-the-30s/), we were at the end of a major debt supercycle. The frenzied mortgage lending and securitization in the financial sector, along with massive consumer credit borrowing, had set the U.S. up for a major crisis. In relative terms, we were at a 27% HIGHER total debt to GDP ratio than the Great Depression.
+
+These massive debt loads were coming home to roost, manifesting first as a crisis in subprime but then quickly moving to prime mortgages, corporate debt markets, money markets, and even the consumer credit markets. As discussed in Part 2, NY Fed Pres Tim Geitner stated that during the darkest days of 2008 the inter-bank lending market was freezing up, and we were "[days away from the ATMs not working](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QozGSS7QY_U)".
+
+[![r/Superstonk - Hyperinflation Is Coming- The Dollar Endgame Part 3.5- "The Money Machine"](https://preview.redd.it/rfxp8w0v18a71.png?width=482&format=png&auto=webp&s=bdd16cb4fcc7a4d1fd966a5be51e838a07dc2edd)](https://preview.redd.it/rfxp8w0v18a71.png?width=482&format=png&auto=webp&s=bdd16cb4fcc7a4d1fd966a5be51e838a07dc2edd)
+
+Total US (Public+Private) Debt to GDP
+
+But, this didn't happen. Ben Bernanke, the Chairman of the Federal Reserve, was a self avowed student of the Great Depression- and was determined not to let it happen again. He, along with Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson (Former CEO of Goldman Sachs) and Tim Geitner, created new lending facilities and MBS purchase programs in order to swallow the massive amounts of toxic assets the system had created.
+
+Paulson and Bernanke technically had no legal authority to create these programs, but in a crisis, all caution goes out the window. [TARP](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/t/troubled-asset-relief-program-tarp.asp) and other programs authorized by the Treasury bought billions of dollars of MBS, funded by T-bond issuances. This chart shows [US Govt Debt as a % of GDP through today](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GFDEGDQ188S): (notice the spike in debt during and after 2008)
+
+[![r/Superstonk - Hyperinflation Is Coming- The Dollar Endgame Part 3.5- "The Money Machine"](https://preview.redd.it/ujn9zuyw18a71.png?width=625&format=png&auto=webp&s=0ae7d013a9908e1a43cf2d3be8e3a2646f4ac06a)](https://preview.redd.it/ujn9zuyw18a71.png?width=625&format=png&auto=webp&s=0ae7d013a9908e1a43cf2d3be8e3a2646f4ac06a)
+
+US Government Debt To GDP
+
+The US borrowed heavily- TARP alone was authorized for $700 billion. The Treasury did not have the funds to support this so it issued billions of dollars of T-Bonds. Banks, hedge funds, other governments, and the Fed all bought these bonds en masse.
+
+Remember, only the Treasury has the ability to SPEND, and only the Fed has the ability to LEND/PRINT. The Fed was created as a private institution to "protect" the government from reckless money-printing. The [Primary Dealers](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/p/primarydealer.asp) (banks approved to trade directly with the Govt) buy Govt bonds from the US Treasury, and turn around and sell these bonds to the Fed or other third parties. If you're confused about how the system works, I recommend watching [this video on how the financial system functions](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iFDe5kUUyT0&list=PLF_lD6tTQahfNDvjbfl2OJQWxHBSDYUcA&index=7).
+
+In the equity markets, as we started bottoming in the first quarter of 2009, hedge funds, banks, and family offices began loading up on margin debt again. This renewed confidence in the banking system and overall lending capacity began [pushing equity markets](https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2021/06/16/margin-debt-and-the-market-up-1-7-in-may-continues-record-trend) back up.
+
+[![r/Superstonk - Hyperinflation Is Coming- The Dollar Endgame Part 3.5- "The Money Machine"](https://preview.redd.it/pbrzfxpz18a71.png?width=638&format=png&auto=webp&s=55dd56a772f393a4df2969eb153c93f97c37a581)](https://preview.redd.it/pbrzfxpz18a71.png?width=638&format=png&auto=webp&s=55dd56a772f393a4df2969eb153c93f97c37a581)
+
+Margin Debt and Stock Market Rally
+
+Further stabilizing the markets was the Federal Reserve with their massive Quantitative Easing program. In 2008, the [Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet ballooned](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WALCL)- assets (Treasuries and MBS) grew from $880 Billion pre-crisis, to $2 Trillion immediately after, and eventually over $4T by 2014. Many economists, particularly those with a libertarian bent, such as Peter Schiff, immediately decried this reckless behavior and predicted immediate hyper-inflation as early as 2011.
+
+[![r/Superstonk - Hyperinflation Is Coming- The Dollar Endgame Part 3.5- "The Money Machine"](https://preview.redd.it/c3xymxf228a71.png?width=617&format=png&auto=webp&s=6022846b09f94c79188be23c66859b95a342063b)](https://preview.redd.it/c3xymxf228a71.png?width=617&format=png&auto=webp&s=6022846b09f94c79188be23c66859b95a342063b)
+
+Federal Reserve Balance Sheet
+
+When the Fed buys assets, it is completely different from any other institution buying. Pension plans or mutual funds use the savings of the investors of the fund. Because that money came either from working, or from other investments, it represents NO net increase in money supply. The money they received HAD to come from someone else, for a good/product/service/asset they created or provided.
+
+However, the Fed has no taxing authority, no savings, no funds to speak of at all- EVERYTHING the Fed buys it purchases through money it PRINTS. Thus, Fed Balance Sheet expansion=money printing. The Fed printed $2T in the two years following 2008.
+
+This rampant money printing rightly worried experts and pundits in the media- but the inflation they feared never came. They were flat out WRONG. Why?
+
+Most of the new money that was printed went directly into the banking system. Lyn Alden describes it brilliantly-
+
+"Leading into the financial crisis, only about 13% of bank reserve assets consisted of cash (3%) and Treasury securities (10%). The rest of their assets were invested in loans and riskier securities. This was also at a time when household debt to GDP reached a record high, as consumers were caught up in the housing bubble.
+
+That over-leveraged bank situation hit a climax into the 2008/2009 crisis, coinciding with record high debt-to-GDP among households, and was the apex of the long-term private (non-federal) debt cycle. When banks are that leveraged with very little cash reserves, even a 3% loss in assets results in insolvency. And that's what happened; the banking system as a whole hit a peak total loan charge-off rate of over 3%, and it resulted in a widespread banking crisis" (I can't link source, it keeps getting the post taken down- I will post it in comments).
+
+[![r/Superstonk - Hyperinflation Is Coming- The Dollar Endgame Part 3.5- "The Money Machine"](https://preview.redd.it/h2e3zan728a71.png?width=621&format=png&auto=webp&s=21227fa9075245823c0e463a9626cf0bd5ba924e)](https://preview.redd.it/h2e3zan728a71.png?width=621&format=png&auto=webp&s=21227fa9075245823c0e463a9626cf0bd5ba924e)
+
+Bank Recapitalization
+
+Thus, the new money went to recapitalize banks and shore up their balance sheets to defend them from bankruptcy- it stayed in untouchable bank reserves, and never entered circulation.
+
+The money that didn't go to repair bank balance sheets flowed directly into the markets - Let's walk through it.
+
+There are two different economies-[ the real economy, and the financial economy. ](https://www.mdpi.com/1911-8074/14/3/129/htm)The tidal wave of new money the Fed was creating did not cause inflation (in the traditional sense), because the money did not flow into the real economy- the goods, products and services that everyone consumes on a daily basis. The money instead flowed into the Financial economy- bond markets, stock markets, private equity funds, commodities, Forex markets, etc.
+
+[![r/Superstonk - Hyperinflation Is Coming- The Dollar Endgame Part 3.5- "The Money Machine"](https://preview.redd.it/b8v6b23a28a71.png?width=635&format=png&auto=webp&s=60f2d1ae42bdad9f98b92f03ebe1b7903c879b88)](https://preview.redd.it/b8v6b23a28a71.png?width=635&format=png&auto=webp&s=60f2d1ae42bdad9f98b92f03ebe1b7903c879b88)
+
+Financial Economy vs Real Economy
+
+When you give a bank $100M, it doesn't go out and buy $100M worth of Big Macs and Kleenex- the bank puts these funds into investments, generally either in the form of loans or in the form of equities or equity derivatives. Thus, the funds that flowed into the banks are stored up almost exclusively in the financial system, or get pushed into loans to consumers.
+
+"Wait a second!"- you say. "The Fed printed money to buy T-Bonds- The Treasury usually spends funds that go into the real economy-- so THAT should have caused inflation, right?"
+
+Yes, this is typically what happens. But, during and after the 2008 financial crisis the majority of Treasury expenditures went to programs that were stabilizing the financial system (TARP+ TAF+ TLGP+ Others). So, the money that would have been spent by govt agencies in the real economy [instead just flowed back to banks and financial institutions](https://www.stlouisfed.org/publications/regional-economist/january-2011/a-closer-look-brassistance-programs-in-the-wake-of-the-crisis).
+
+Typically in a recession the Treasury will increase spending to cushion the blow to workers- and in 2009 they did extend a few unemployment benefits. But, by and large, Congress authorized few benefit programs for workers, and the [average time on the benefit decreased after a slight bump in 2009](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/21/business/economy/unemployment-insurance.html).
+
+[![r/Superstonk - Hyperinflation Is Coming- The Dollar Endgame Part 3.5- "The Money Machine"](https://preview.redd.it/345yskvc28a71.png?width=607&format=png&auto=webp&s=09c1baf172e55f5753b5542006f970280e3a7725)](https://preview.redd.it/345yskvc28a71.png?width=607&format=png&auto=webp&s=09c1baf172e55f5753b5542006f970280e3a7725)
+
+Average Time on Benefit
+
+Thus, the amount of freshly-printed money that reached the real economy was minimal, and whatever money did reach it largely acted to counteract deflationary forces- it wasn't enough to actually induce inflation. The government did little to stop foreclosures, or provide aid to small businesses. [Unemployment spiked](https://www.macrotrends.net/1377/u6-unemployment-rate), and due to the [Phillips Curve Principle](https://courses.lumenlearning.com/boundless-economics/chapter/the-relationship-between-inflation-and-unemployment/#:~:text=The%20Phillips%20curve%20shows%20the%20relationship%20between%20inflation%20and%20unemployment,run%20Phillips%20curve%20was%20stable.) (covered in Pt 1), this put a dampening effect on inflation.
+
+[![r/Superstonk - Hyperinflation Is Coming- The Dollar Endgame Part 3.5- "The Money Machine"](https://preview.redd.it/9dxis4se28a71.png?width=612&format=png&auto=webp&s=d9a66852c917d5a025c00f46900e4d16a4a180c4)](https://preview.redd.it/9dxis4se28a71.png?width=612&format=png&auto=webp&s=d9a66852c917d5a025c00f46900e4d16a4a180c4)
+
+Unemployment Rates
+
+The funds the Federal Reserve had created, therefore, created no inflation in the real economy- instead they [flowed to the financial economy](https://twitter.com/Mayhem4Markets/status/1411139236435275779?s=20) and inflated financial assets. This started off the [largest and longest bull market run in U.S. Stock market history](https://www.investopedia.com/market-milestones-as-the-bull-market-turns-10-4588903)- easily beating emerging and other developed countries' equity markets.
+
+[![r/Superstonk - Hyperinflation Is Coming- The Dollar Endgame Part 3.5- "The Money Machine"](https://preview.redd.it/mpg5b29h28a71.png?width=620&format=png&auto=webp&s=5f5621475cd0ecbd06d8897592ca085854683fc1)](https://preview.redd.it/mpg5b29h28a71.png?width=620&format=png&auto=webp&s=5f5621475cd0ecbd06d8897592ca085854683fc1)
+
+Massive US Stock Market Rally
+
+[Keynesian economists](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/k/keynesianeconomics.asp#:~:text=Keynesian%20economics%20is%20a%20macroeconomic,output%2C%20employment%2C%20and%20inflation.&text=Based%20on%20his%20theory%2C%20Keynes,economy%20out%20of%20the%20depression.) lauded this as an accomplishment- they believed they were creating what is called a "[Wealth Effect](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/w/wealtheffect.asp)" - a theory that stated that as people's financial wealth increased, they would be induced to do more spending and investment- thus, by propping up the stock market, they would stimulate the real economy. This is awfully convenient for the rich- [the top 10% own 85% of the equity markets,](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/08/27/wealth-gap-grows-as-rising-corporate-profits-boost-stock-holdings-controlled-by-richest-households.html) and thus have seen their wealth balloon by over 186% while growth for everyone else stagnated.
+
+Ironically this theory has it exactly backwards- real economic growth should drive the stock market, not the other way around. But, convinced of their theories, economic policymakers continued to pump ever increasing sums into the financial system.
+
+When you divide stock market performance by the Fed's Balance sheet, you see that there has been basically NO real growth since 2008.
+
+[![r/Superstonk - Hyperinflation Is Coming- The Dollar Endgame Part 3.5- "The Money Machine"](https://preview.redd.it/7locky7n28a71.png?width=740&format=png&auto=webp&s=3c21adbd363d10699e28ae34f0d4dc4b09a9e777)](https://preview.redd.it/7locky7n28a71.png?width=740&format=png&auto=webp&s=3c21adbd363d10699e28ae34f0d4dc4b09a9e777)
+
+The Rally is an Illusion
+
+The entire "rally" we have experienced for the past 12 years has been nothing but an illusion- it is simply the result of vast money inflows into the financial system. Banks and financial institutions will do everything they can to convince you that the high stock market valuations are justified by fundamental growth.
+
+This is wrong- these valuations are NOT justified. Insane levels of money printing and debt leverage have created extremely dislocated equity markets. For example, [Square (SQ)](https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/stocks/sq) has a forward [PE ratio](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/p/price-earningsratio.asp) of 499.87- it currently doesn't pay a dividend, but let's assume it paid a 3% [dividend payout ratio ](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/dividendpayoutratio.asp)(which is rare for tech stocks) - if that were the case, it would take 14,996 YEARS for the dividends to pay pack the price of ONE SHARE. (449.87/0.03).
+
+To summarize, see [this image](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/njmqe2/were_approaching_the_endgame/) from a post I made a month back- all the warning lights are blinking red. The markets are at the extreme end of the range by almost every valuation metric- and no one seems to care.
+
+[![r/Superstonk - Hyperinflation Is Coming- The Dollar Endgame Part 3.5- "The Money Machine"](https://preview.redd.it/vpw34xbs28a71.png?width=409&format=png&auto=webp&s=9ed5bd8caef1db4d622b2b3532425d130cfb5575)](https://preview.redd.it/vpw34xbs28a71.png?width=409&format=png&auto=webp&s=9ed5bd8caef1db4d622b2b3532425d130cfb5575)
+
+Summary of Recent Warnings
+
+The markets are slowly being "walked up" every day. Today, the ultimate price insensitive buyer (the Fed) is now plowing $120B a month into Treasuries and MBS, and the Primary Dealers now have to turn around and put their money somewhere. The bond market is already a trap with 2% yields, and 5% inflation. There's no more profit potential there, so these institutions are forced to buy equities if they want any returns. [The Fed is killing whatever is left of price discovery.](https://twitter.com/NorthmanTrader/status/1410296365012459521?s=20)
+
+[![r/Superstonk - Hyperinflation Is Coming- The Dollar Endgame Part 3.5- "The Money Machine"](https://preview.redd.it/pz00pg3w28a71.png?width=736&format=png&auto=webp&s=2149d1cc11b5cd1174492382ce230c1f566d7979)](https://preview.redd.it/pz00pg3w28a71.png?width=736&format=png&auto=webp&s=2149d1cc11b5cd1174492382ce230c1f566d7979)
+
+SPX grinding higher daily
+
+Four billion dollars or so a day is being pumped into the system- and going straight to the stock markets.
+
+Further, to stimulate growth in the real economy, [policymakers dropped interest rates to near 0% in late 2008 ](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/EFFR)to induce bank lending to get consumers to borrow and spend again. ([70% of our economy is consumption](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DPCERE1Q156NBEA) due to the factors discussed in Part 1).
+
+This did create massive loan demand- basically every sector of the US economy began borrowing en masse. The Fed was able to "reflate" the bubble and allow the economy to survive on debt financing to "re-invigorate the economy". Fast-forward to today, and a decade of pinning rates to the zero-bound has us breaking records in terms of debt loads:
+
+[Student Loan Debt](https://educationdata.org/student-loan-debt-statistics):
+
+[![r/Superstonk - Hyperinflation Is Coming- The Dollar Endgame Part 3.5- "The Money Machine"](https://preview.redd.it/2kzhfp0y28a71.png?width=604&format=png&auto=webp&s=a9db6ae3ff7854e90e32f27a2aed7e6601ae625a)](https://preview.redd.it/2kzhfp0y28a71.png?width=604&format=png&auto=webp&s=a9db6ae3ff7854e90e32f27a2aed7e6601ae625a)
+
+Student Loan Debt
+
+[Corporate Debt:](https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/03/10/coronavirus-markets-economy-corporate-debt/)
+
+[![r/Superstonk - Hyperinflation Is Coming- The Dollar Endgame Part 3.5- "The Money Machine"](https://preview.redd.it/t59yd1e038a71.png?width=615&format=png&auto=webp&s=93d47f8d063b09e0f329d737688fcea732fe4582)](https://preview.redd.it/t59yd1e038a71.png?width=615&format=png&auto=webp&s=93d47f8d063b09e0f329d737688fcea732fe4582)
+
+Corporate Debt to GDP
+
+[Consumer Credit Card Debt](https://wolfstreet.com/2020/08/09/the-state-of-the-american-debt-slaves-q2-2020-the-credit-card-phenomenon/):
+
+[![r/Superstonk - Hyperinflation Is Coming- The Dollar Endgame Part 3.5- "The Money Machine"](https://preview.redd.it/2of0cde238a71.png?width=422&format=png&auto=webp&s=6d04f2821f8e90fb9e75fe0a3023b8bae50fe5f9)](https://preview.redd.it/2of0cde238a71.png?width=422&format=png&auto=webp&s=6d04f2821f8e90fb9e75fe0a3023b8bae50fe5f9)
+
+Consumer Credit as % of GDP
+
+[Auto Loan Debt](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MVLOAS).
+
+[![r/Superstonk - Hyperinflation Is Coming- The Dollar Endgame Part 3.5- "The Money Machine"](https://preview.redd.it/32a1dkwc48a71.png?width=599&format=png&auto=webp&s=8b9c9816a63f3322686d0fdaaba9e8271426b0f5)](https://preview.redd.it/32a1dkwc48a71.png?width=599&format=png&auto=webp&s=8b9c9816a63f3322686d0fdaaba9e8271426b0f5)
+
+Auto Loans
+
+I could go on and on, but you get the point. Now, the entire system is overleveraged- the cancer has spread, and it has infected virtually every single sector of the economy.
+
+People keep saying that we "kicked the can" of 2008 down the road. This is WRONG. We kicked the can UP THE STAIRS- meaning, we not only delayed the problem, but made sure it would get WORSE, since we borrowed MORE to paper over the old debts and worthless securities the system had created.
+
+A fascinating aspect of our recent financial history is that [the bailouts are exponentially growing](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GT1WqIkg9es&t=56s)- this is due to the simple fact that the entity giving the bailout has to have a balance sheet multiples larger than the firm receiving the bailout, and government guarantees of banks induce reckless speculation. For example, to bailout a bank with $10B in mark-to-market losses, you need a bank with a $20 or $30B capital surplus, to absorb the loss and keep the depositors and creditors satisfied that the bank giving the bailout won't go under.
+
+In [1998, a hedge fund called LTCM ](https://www.thebalance.com/long-term-capital-crisis-3306240)was near collapse- [it had leveraged itself over 25-1](https://sites.duke.edu/djepapers/files/2016/08/prabhu.pdf), using complex algorithms made by Nobel Prize winning economists to predict bond prices. They had made massive derivative bets buying Russian bonds (among other things) - and when the Russian government defaulted in August 1998, their positions began to unravel.
+
+The massive debt and derivative exposure they had created was threatening to pull several large banks down with it. The Fed stepped in during September to organize a $3.5 Billion bailout, funded by 12 large banks. According to James Rickards, General Counsel of the LTCM Bailout- the US equity and bond markets were "[close to being completely shut down](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P4_1pwsm5LY&list=PLE88E9ICdiphYjJkeeLL2O09eJoC8r7Dc&index=8)" during the worst of that crisis. (start at 16:30)
+
+In 2008, the entire US financial system was nearing collapse and desperately needed a bailout. A massive bank run had begun. Congress stepped up and provided- in the end spending over [$498 Billion of taxpayer funds](https://mitsloan.mit.edu/ideas-made-to-matter/heres-how-much-2008-bailouts-really-cost). However, the Fed also provided a bailout (though QE), eventually [buying over $1.7 Trillion of MBS](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WSHOMCB).
+
+Since the Great Financial Crisis, the banking system debt crisis has now become a government debt crisis, and indeed an economic debt crisis- and this debt has spread worldwide. Equity and bond markets have continued to march up, despite fundamentals. This new financial paradigm was rightly termed "[The Everything Bubble](https://www.amazon.com/dp/B0794RLM8R/ref=dp-kindle-redirect?_encoding=UTF8&btkr=1)"
+
+[![r/Superstonk - Hyperinflation Is Coming- The Dollar Endgame Part 3.5- "The Money Machine"](https://preview.redd.it/b01f8f4638a71.png?width=601&format=png&auto=webp&s=d91ead1be1711bb17666e242bde41e1b9d0fbc5f)](https://preview.redd.it/b01f8f4638a71.png?width=601&format=png&auto=webp&s=d91ead1be1711bb17666e242bde41e1b9d0fbc5f)
+
+Total World Debt
+
+[Total (Govt+Private) Global Debt](https://www.axios.com/global-debt-gdp-898959ed-f96a-4c4d-85a3-5d3cc419631f.html) now stands at staggering $281 Trillion, or 356% of GDP. We've never been here before- we are now navigating uncharted waters. The next bailout will have to be bigger- a LOT bigger.
+
+Avalanches
+
+[![r/Superstonk - Hyperinflation Is Coming- The Dollar Endgame Part 3.5- "The Money Machine"](https://preview.redd.it/mglsuam938a71.png?width=622&format=png&auto=webp&s=21330913e64427c381233b2f82f3f285d99f0610)](https://preview.redd.it/mglsuam938a71.png?width=622&format=png&auto=webp&s=21330913e64427c381233b2f82f3f285d99f0610)
+
+Avalanche
+
+Imagine a snowfield on an alpine slope, above a small town. A few inches of snow falls. Everything is fine. More snow falls. Still nothing happens. A blizzard moves in. A day later, the snowfield reaches critical mass. Then, a disturbance happens- it could be a deer foraging for food, or a hapless skier exploring the backcountry. The snow starts sliding, pushing the snow below it. Positive feedback loops start to engage. The field begins to slide- now an avalanche has begun. The town is wiped out.
+
+The financial crisis was the beginning of a debt avalanche- it's likely that over 70% of the major banks, mortgage brokers, and other financial institutions would have gone bankrupt, superseding the Great Depression-era record of 30%. Thousands of private and public companies would have gone bankrupt. Real estate and equity markets would have entered a freefall lasting for years, and unemployment would likely have spiked past 30%, bringing back the soup lines not seen since 1936.
+
+Instead, policymakers kicked the can up the stairs- they issued massive amounts of government debt to paper over the 2008 crisis, and incentivized excessive borrowing in the private sector. The fundamental factors that caused the crisis (unregulated derivatives, bank combinations, excessive leverage, lack of oversight) were never resolved. As [u/Criand](https://www.reddit.com/u/Criand/) so elegantly puts it, 2008 never ended. Now, with[ US Government Debt standing at over $28 Trillion](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GFDEBTN), there are only tough choices ahead. We will soon reach a point where the interest payments alone on the debt supersede all US Tax Revenues- when that happens, we will have traveled beyond the event horizon- [there will be no coming back](https://www.cbo.gov/publication/56598). The debt will be IMPOSSIBLE to pay off. (This is according to the governments own projections!)📷
+
+[![r/Superstonk - Hyperinflation Is Coming- The Dollar Endgame Part 3.5- "The Money Machine"](https://preview.redd.it/rn0jnbzg38a71.png?width=795&format=png&auto=webp&s=28f68b2a6a282b563a62669e90c820792a9e7a5a)](https://preview.redd.it/rn0jnbzg38a71.png?width=795&format=png&auto=webp&s=28f68b2a6a282b563a62669e90c820792a9e7a5a)
+
+US Government Debt Projection
+
+The US Government continues to borrow- running a staggering[ $2.1 Trillion deficits for just the first half of 2021](https://bipartisanpolicy.org/report/deficit-tracker/). There is no end in sight. The Biden Administration is pushing for another $[1.2 Trillion in infrastructure spending](https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2021/06/24/fact-sheet-president-biden-announces-support-for-the-bipartisan-infrastructure-framework/) this year ON TOP of the already massive deficits. Some politicians are demanding that it be more.
+
+Day by day, we are adding snow to the mountains above our village. When will end is anyone's guess, but borrowing more will only make the end worse.
+
+Smoothbrain Overview:
+
+-   Through the magic of Fractional Reserve banking, institutions can loan out much more debt than cash that actually exists. This increases systemic risk.
+
+-   As a result, over 90% of all capital created is in the form of debt. This supercharges debt cycles and can cause massive bank failures.
+
+-   When debt super-cycles crest, and begin the march downwards, massive deleveraging and defaults begin. If the banking system is weak, bank runs begin. (1930s)
+
+-   We were hitting another end of the 80 yr debt cycle in 2008 (1929-2008 (79yrs)). We never de-leveraged the system. Instead, we re-leveraged EVERYTHING even MORE.
+
+-   The Government and the Fed swept in and bailed out the banks. Now the Federal Government is deeply in debt to the[ tune of $28 Trillion](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GFDEBTN).
+
+-   The trillions printed by the Fed were almost exclusively routed to the financial system- creating a new bubble in every single asset class, larger and even more widespread than the 2008 bubble.
+
+-   We never resolved 2008. We only kicked the can up the stairs. The Derivatives monster from Pt 2, along with a massive debt avalanche, will come back with a vengeance.
+
+-   Almost every sector of the US economy, and indeed the world economy, is now greatly overleveraged. Global Total Debt to GDP broke past 350% during Covid.
+
+-   Options are running out for policymakers. Debt borrowing and money-printing cannot continue forever.
+
+Conclusion:
+
+The debt crisis will return, but this time, it will be the financial system, US government, and indeed the ENTIRE world economy that needs a bailout- and who has a big enough balance sheet to absorb that? The only answer is the ones with an infinite balance sheet- the Central Banks.
+
+The idea that anyone can borrow forever, or print money forever, with no consequences, defies basic financial logic. Impossible Objects cannot exist forever. History shows deadly consequences for the nations that venture down either path. The United States is no exception.
+
+The Fed has already tried to escape this trap in 2018. It failed. Sovereign creditors are losing faith in the US Treasury, and have been since 2015. The walls are closing in, and the ultimate decision must be made.
+
+The avalanche is coming either way- and we only have two choices. Either we allow ourselves to be buried under a mountain of hyper-deflation, creating a new Great Depression, frozen credit and equity markets, and massive bank failures- or, we burn our way out, using the inferno of money-printing and hyper-inflation.
+
+BUY, HODL, BUCKLE UP.>>>>>>>TO BE CONTINUED >>>>>>> PART FOUR "AT WORLD'S END"
+
+(Adding this to clear up FUD- My argument is for hyperinflation to begin in a few years- this is a years- long PROCESS, and will take a long time to play out. It won't happen tomorrow, but we are in the same situation as Germany after WW1. Hyperinflation is GOOD FOR GME--- DEBT VALUE COLLAPSES, MONEY CHASES ASSETS (EQUITIES) pushing the price UP, so shorts will have to cover) BUY AND HOLD.
+
+Nothing on this Post constitutes investment advice, performance data or any recommendation that any security, portfolio of securities, investment product, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person. From reading my Post I cannot assess anything about your personal circumstances, your finances, or your goals and objectives, all of which are unique to you, so any opinions or information contained on this Post are just that -- an opinion or information. Please consult a financial professional if you seek advice.
+
+*If you would like to learn more, check out my recommended reading list [here](https://docs.google.com/document/d/1nSw9odLoExaq0oEBqIHrCK1Xj5KfyjBkGQZ93LTh34g/edit?usp=sharing). This is a dummy google account, so feel free to share with friends- none of my personal information is attached. You can also check out a Google docs version of my[ Endgame Series here](https://docs.google.com/document/d/1552Gu7F2cJV5Bgw93ZGgCONXeenPdjKBbhbUs6shg6s/edit?usp=sharing). I have a folder with all the Dollar Engame DD [here](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/o4vzau/hyperinflation_is_coming_the_dollar_endgame_part/), and another GME DD folder (just collection of PDFs, not my work) [here](https://drive.google.com/drive/folders/1u3RogFdDU-kQ9XYjNVJKl-acPf1r7wwX?usp=sharing).
+
+(Side note: I've been accused of being a shill/FUD spreader for the first two posts- please know this is NOT my intention! I cleared this series with Mods, ([PROOF](https://drive.google.com/file/d/1HlM0vR0Mguo83k6KKKQg5HKyCZaLrOHQ/view?usp=sharing)) but if you think this is FUD/SHILLY then downvote/comment and I can discuss further.)

DD/Math-Black-Magic-series-by-nydus-erdos/2021-06-09-Why-it-is-Mathematically-Impossible-for-Hedgies-to-Unfuk-Themselves.md

@@ -0,0 +1,326 @@
+Math Black Magic Vol. 1: Why It Is Mathematically Impossible for Hedgies To Unfuk Themselves
+============================================================================================
+
+| Author       | Source       | 
+| :-------------: |:-------------:|
+|  [u/nydus_erdos](https://www.reddit.com/user/nydus_erdos/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nw8281/math_black_magic_vol_1_why_it_is_mathematically/) | 
+
+---
+
+[DD 👨‍🔬](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22DD%20%F0%9F%91%A8%E2%80%8D%F0%9F%94%AC%22&restrict_sr=1)
+
+DISCLAIMER: My first DD. Not financial advice. All credit to the authors of cited works. I am not trying to karma farm or be dramatic by breaking this up into parts. I tried to post it all at once, but the picture limit had other plans.
+
+ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS:
+
+Shout out to [u/sososhibby](https://www.reddit.com/u/sososhibby/). One of their comments got me started down this rabbit hole and they were nice enough to give my work a quick check before I posted. They've also posted about this topic as well: [Part 1](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nmaaaa/john_d_finnerty_excerpt_from_hoc_3_explained_pt1/), [Part 2](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nmdbzz/excerpt_from_hoc3_relevant_af_20_finnerty_fer/)
+
+Also, [u/JNWolman](https://www.reddit.com/u/JNWolman/) was all over this topic months ago. IMO, the post didn't get the exposure it was due. Give it a [read](https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/comments/mgmbkf/would_the_real_exit_strategy_please_stand_up/).
+
+--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
+
+A. What I Hope to Show
+
+In this volume I hope to present work (by brains much more wrinkled than mine) that show beyond a reasonable doubt, something we all already know: that hedgies are indeed mathematically fuk, in that they have naked shorted AT LEAST the same amount of shares outstanding.
+
+[u/atobitt](https://www.reddit.com/u/atobitt/)'s [H.O.C. III](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nlwqyv/house_of_cards_part_3/) mentions an [academic paper](https://www.sec.gov/comments/s7-08-08/s70808-318.pdf) titled "*Short Selling, Death Spiral Convertibles, and the Profitability of Stock Manipulation*" written March 2005 by John D. Finnerty, a finance professor.
+
+In the paper, Finnerty lays out a model to examine naked short selling. In particular, he demonstrates that in order to drive a firms price very close to zero, a manipulator MUST naked short AT LEAST the same number of shares as there are shares outstanding, doubling the float.
+
+-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
+
+B. Market Model Rundown
+
+In my opinion, Finnerty's paper is a thing of logical and [mathematical beauty](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mathematical_beauty). As god tier mathematician Paul Erdős would say, "[This one's from The Book](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mathematical_beauty#Beauty_and_philosophy)". Finnerty took a very complex system and expressed it elegantly and simply. As a math ape, it literally brought a tear to my eye when I finally understood it; which took me awhile (just because I like math doesn't make my brain any less smooth). There's no confirmation bias as sweet as mathematical confirmation bias.
+
+However, I am quite aware of my autistic tendencies and know most people and apes have a...*strained* relationship with math, so I read all 73 pages of the paper so you don't have to! I try to lay out his model as concisely as possible as to who are the participants, how the market behaves and why hedgies r thusly fuk.
+
+MARKET PARTICIPANTS:
+
+*Informed Investor*
+
+-   Informed investors do short sell, but do not engage in abusive or naked short selling. They locate, borrow and return shares on time.
+
+-   The informed investor has information advantage. They know if the true intrinsic value of the stock is high (*H)* or low *(L)*.
+
+-   This group only shorts stocks that legitimately have low real intrinsic value *(L)*.
+
+-   Assume there is only one informed investor in this model.
+
+*Manipulator*
+
+-   The manipulator has the information advantage as well. Through research or by observing the informed investor, they know the true intrinsic value of the stock and seek to manipulate the stock below that value.
+
+-   A manipulator can appear as an informed investor to other participants by copying the selling behavior of the informed investor.
+
+-   Manipulator can be a Market Maker (MM).
+
+> Market makers have lower shorting costs since they can sell on a downtick and do not have to commit that they will be able to borrow shares before they sell short. Market makers are granted these exceptions to facilitate their market-making activities. A strategy a manipulator can employ to reduce its cost of shorting is to register as a market maker for the target stock. If naked shorting, there is zero cost. (Pg. 17, footnote 33)
+
+-   There is only one manipulator in this model.
+
+*Active Traders*
+
+-   Think of this group as regulation abiding MM's.
+
+-   They can short sell, but do not engage in abusive or naked short selling.
+
+-   Active traders does not have as much information as the manipulator and informed investor. They do not know the true value of the stock.
+
+    -   They can interpret market signals and see what the informed investor does, which gives them information advantage over retail investors.
+
+-   They don't know if the informed investor they are watching is actually a manipulator in disguise.
+
+-   They mostly base their moves on what the informed investor (or the disguised manipulator) does and only act after they do.
+
+-   There is more than one active trader.
+
+*Uninformed Investors*
+
+-   These are old type retail investors, not apes.
+
+-   Uninformed investors have the ultimate information disadvantage, they have no idea how much the stock is really worth.
+
+-   They always stand ready to buy more shares at lower prices than those currently prevailing, since they don't know the true intrinsic value of the stock.
+
+-   This willingness to buy provides consistent cash flow (liquidity) to short sellers.
+
+-   Uninformed investors demand for shares decreases as the amount they possess increases.
+
+-   Once this group knows the true price of the stock they will sell, providing shares to the shorts to cover.
+
+-   There are many uninformed investors.
+
+*Insiders and Long Term HODL'ers*
+
+-   Passive group that does not take an active role in the market. They neither sell nor buy shares.
+
+-   They exist in the model so there are shares for the shorts to borrow and to set the initial market price.
+
+-   Assume they own all outstanding shares.
+
+TIME BREAKDOWN:
+
+The paper has a timeline/progression of how the market behaves. There are four points expressed as time *t*.
+
+*Time 0*
+
+-   This is right before anything happens and the model is at the initial conditions.
+
+-   All shares are held by insiders and long term investors who do not plan on selling.
+
+*Time 1*
+
+-   This is when the short sale can be initiated by the the informed investor or the manipulator or, depending on the situation, by both of them.
+
+-   Also during this time the active traders are observing the informed investor (or a manipulator posing as one) and current market signals. They do not act during this time.
+
+*Time 2*
+
+-   This is when the active trader takes action, they do what they saw the informed investor (or the manipulator posing as one) do.
+
+-   The short sellers from time 1 can short additional shares if they decide to.
+
+-   Market equilibrium forms at this time.
+
+-   The informed investor or the manipulator can sustain a short position until time 3 but it is less expensive to sustain it to time 2 (unless the manipulator naked shorts and/or is a MM).
+
+*Time 3*
+
+-   This is when the stocks true intrinsic value is revealed to all market participants to be *H* or *L*.
+
+-   This represents the long run, and it may be very costly for the informed investor or the manipulator to maintain a short position (unless the manipulator naked shorts and/or is a MM).
+
+-   If the legitimate shorts have not closed their short position already, this is were they cover.
+
+-   Most of the paper's focus is on what happens at this time.
+
+MARKET EQUILIBRIUM
+
+At time 2, the market enters equilibrium. There are two basic forms of equilibrium: pooling and separating.
+
+*Pooling*
+
+This type of equilibrium is when the manipulator wants to remain undetected so the other market participants mistake him as an informed investor.
+
+The advantage to this is that the manipulator stands less of a chance of getting caught or squeezed. On top of this, active traders may pile on to short the stock as well when they see blood in the water. This causes the price to drop even lower, helping the manipulator.
+
+The disadvantage is that the manipulator loses profit to the extra competition and sole control over the price action.
+
+*Separating*
+
+This is when the manipulator doesn't care if they are detected. In some cases, they want to be detected to scare off competition. The advantage is that this strategy maximizes their profit and they have full price control. The disadvantage is they have a greater chance of getting caught or squeezed.
+
+-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
+
+E. Demand Curves & The Unravelling Problem
+
+*General Demand Curve:*
+
+This whole model is governed by the uninformed investors demand, since they are the buyers. Their demand is highly dependent on the supply of shares. The uninformed traders willingness to hold *Q* shares at time *t* is summarized by the demand curve (Pg. 15):
+
+[![r/Superstonk - Math Black Magic Vol. 1: Why It Is Mathematically Impossible for Hedgies To Unfuk Themselves](https://preview.redd.it/zhhgr111fc471.png?width=1375&format=png&auto=webp&s=cc034e8ae681bdc7365ce2ab1851e18fca94cbed)](https://preview.redd.it/zhhgr111fc471.png?width=1375&format=png&auto=webp&s=cc034e8ae681bdc7365ce2ab1851e18fca94cbed)
+
+General Demand Curve
+
+-   The function *D(Q)* represents the uninformed investors demand which is equal to the price at time *t* represented by *P(t)*.
+
+-   *H* and *L* are the potential true values of the stock revealed to active traders and uninformed investors at time 3.
+
+-   *A* is a constant representing the current market price.
+
+-   *B* is a constant representing the price at which uninformed investors buy, which is lower than the prevailing price.
+
+-   Note that at time zero, all shares are in the hands of long term investors so *P(0) = A*.
+
+*The Unravelling Problem:*
+
+If the manipulator is not naked short selling, then they would have to cover at time 2, or at time 3 when the true price is revealed to everyone. This presents what the paper refers to as the unravelling problem.
+
+This is the issue shorts face when covering their positions. Since retail knows the real price at time 3 their demand curve shifts. Buying to cover at the real price causes the price to increase. Both factors cut into profits.
+
+*Problem When True Price = H*
+
+If true price is revealed to be *H* at time 3 then the demand curve shifts to:
+
+[![r/Superstonk - Math Black Magic Vol. 1: Why It Is Mathematically Impossible for Hedgies To Unfuk Themselves](https://preview.redd.it/3rhkhwi6fc471.png?width=1406&format=png&auto=webp&s=9d6e0631707e552c444a5d8206535f54bad1b4ca)](https://preview.redd.it/3rhkhwi6fc471.png?width=1406&format=png&auto=webp&s=9d6e0631707e552c444a5d8206535f54bad1b4ca)
+
+High Value Demand Curve
+
+This is the worst case scenario for hedgies. Not only did they not suppress the price to *L* they now have to buy to cover. The number of shares retail holds *Q* goes to zero since hedgies have to buy them back, which will push the price to *H* cutting into their tendies.
+
+*Problem When True Price = L*
+
+If true price is revealed to be *L*, at time 3 then the demand curve shifts to:
+
+[![r/Superstonk - Math Black Magic Vol. 1: Why It Is Mathematically Impossible for Hedgies To Unfuk Themselves](https://preview.redd.it/45sv7u0afc471.png?width=1408&format=png&auto=webp&s=7bcc138e8344e98deab491f8f2b7d77275693377)](https://preview.redd.it/45sv7u0afc471.png?width=1408&format=png&auto=webp&s=7bcc138e8344e98deab491f8f2b7d77275693377)
+
+Low Value Demand Curve
+
+Not as bad as the previous case, but even covering at *L* will push price a little bit higher and cut into the hedgies' tendies.
+
+-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
+
+F. Naked Short Selling
+
+Naked short selling removes the unravelling problem at no cost to the manipulator and it's quite literally free money:
+
+> Naked short selling and manipulating the price downward provide cash returns to the manipulator, who can withdraw cash from his clearing firm account as the shorted shares are marked to market at progressively lower prices. Through naked shorting, the manipulator realizes these returns without investing any cash (provided the market price never rises above the sale price). (Pg. 34, par. 1)
+
+> The clearing firm retains the cash proceeds from the short sale to secure the selling broker's delivery obligation. The clearing firm releases cash equal to the reduction in value of the shorted shares as the price of the shares declines (or demands additional cash margin if the share price rises). (Pg. 34, footnote 51)
+
+Here are some familiar signs of naked short selling:
+
+> The daily trading volume could be quite high if the manipulator is rapidly turning over its short position, but the daily trading and settlement activity may appear to be normal market making because the dealer's net position on the day does not change. (Pg. 44, footnote 64)
+
+> Pumping the trading volume also reduces the short interest ratio (short interest divided by the average daily trading volume) to help conceal the manipulation. (Pg. 44, footnote 64)
+
+Remember naked shorting creates phantom shares which increases the float.
+
+*True Shares Outstanding:*
+
+Based on the original demand curve we can calculate the total shares outstanding at time 0. Since this is during the initial conditions, this is the true value of shares outstanding.
+
+So, since uninformed investors are always willing to buy at a lower price and, hypothetically, if the long term investors decided to sell all outstanding shares *Q* to uninformed traders then price would fall to *L*:
+
+[![r/Superstonk - Math Black Magic Vol. 1: Why It Is Mathematically Impossible for Hedgies To Unfuk Themselves](https://preview.redd.it/2lucrstdfc471.png?width=1302&format=png&auto=webp&s=77adeb75401431094301b216caabcb71f4db680c)](https://preview.redd.it/2lucrstdfc471.png?width=1302&format=png&auto=webp&s=77adeb75401431094301b216caabcb71f4db680c)
+
+True Shares Outstanding
+
+*Naked Short Selling in Pooling Equilibrium: Driving Price Close to Zero*
+
+When True Price = *H*
+
+Using the previous equations we can find the amount of shares necessary to drive the final price at time 3 close to zero:
+
+[![r/Superstonk - Math Black Magic Vol. 1: Why It Is Mathematically Impossible for Hedgies To Unfuk Themselves](https://preview.redd.it/qei47fuifc471.png?width=1284&format=png&auto=webp&s=65ea8f2f04eff9babd339b7c22a3a8f9c655fb7a)](https://preview.redd.it/qei47fuifc471.png?width=1284&format=png&auto=webp&s=65ea8f2f04eff9babd339b7c22a3a8f9c655fb7a)
+
+Shares Needed to Drive Price Close To Zero
+
+When True Price = *L*
+
+[![r/Superstonk - Math Black Magic Vol. 1: Why It Is Mathematically Impossible for Hedgies To Unfuk Themselves](https://preview.redd.it/pedh454ofc471.png?width=1279&format=png&auto=webp&s=fe342a1d0872e3baa28292cd39d15d3cef259de6)](https://preview.redd.it/pedh454ofc471.png?width=1279&format=png&auto=webp&s=fe342a1d0872e3baa28292cd39d15d3cef259de6)
+
+Shares Needed to Drive Price Close to Zero
+
+It is also worth noting,
+
+> The manipulators profit depends on his ability to manipulate the firm's stock price and keep it depressed. The stronger the financial condition of the firm at time 3 (the higher *L* is), the greater the number of shares the manipulator has to sell short at time 3 to drive the price close to zero. (Pg. 45, par. 2)
+
+*More Shorted Shares than Outstanding:*
+
+We have the true shares outstanding, we know the amount of shares needed to short an *H* valued company to zero, and the amount of shares needed to short a *L* valued company to zero:
+
+[![r/Superstonk - Math Black Magic Vol. 1: Why It Is Mathematically Impossible for Hedgies To Unfuk Themselves](https://preview.redd.it/twctyrcsfc471.png?width=1274&format=png&auto=webp&s=cd8be3285e939cac464dee89025027c780c3eb0b)](https://preview.redd.it/twctyrcsfc471.png?width=1274&format=png&auto=webp&s=cd8be3285e939cac464dee89025027c780c3eb0b)
+
+Share Counts
+
+When Value Is *H*
+
+> Building a short position of *H/B* to drive *P(3)* to zero would involve naked shorting more shares than the firm has outstanding because *H/B > (A-L)/B*. (Pg. 45, par. 1)
+>
+> The manipulator can not drive the share price close to zero unless he can naked short an extraordinary number of shares. (Pg. 45, par. 1)
+
+So to drive the *H* company to zero hedgies have to naked short *Q_H* shares. But remember our general equations governing the demand curve:
+
+[![r/Superstonk - Math Black Magic Vol. 1: Why It Is Mathematically Impossible for Hedgies To Unfuk Themselves](https://preview.redd.it/2pv8j1uxfc471.png?width=1362&format=png&auto=webp&s=b1f6323b28f83ff44706c06252eb8ef1decc802d)](https://preview.redd.it/2pv8j1uxfc471.png?width=1362&format=png&auto=webp&s=b1f6323b28f83ff44706c06252eb8ef1decc802d)
+
+Hedgies r fuk: High Value Edition
+
+Proving that if hedgies want to short a company with a high intrinsic value to zero they must naked short more shares than are outstanding.
+
+When Value is *L*
+
+> Even if the manipulator's short position is *L/B*, it might still exceed the entire number of shares the firm has outstanding.
+>
+> The manipulators profit depends on his ability to manipulate the firm's stock price and keep it depressed. The stronger the financial condition of the firm at time 3 (the higher *L* is), the greater the number of shares the manipulator has to sell short at time 3 to drive the price close to zero. (Pg. 45, par. 2)
+
+If the final price (*L*) at time three (*P(3)*) is equal to the price at time 2 (i.e. if *L=P(3)=P(2)*) then the manipulator will naked short the same number of shares that the firm has outstanding. This next equation should look familiar:
+
+[![r/Superstonk - Math Black Magic Vol. 1: Why It Is Mathematically Impossible for Hedgies To Unfuk Themselves](https://preview.redd.it/vfihc052gc471.png?width=1338&format=png&auto=webp&s=73f9ccd94ca522bfc4f57d548aa1fc0e3b51c2e5)](https://preview.redd.it/vfihc052gc471.png?width=1338&format=png&auto=webp&s=73f9ccd94ca522bfc4f57d548aa1fc0e3b51c2e5)
+
+Hedgies r fuk: Low Value Edition
+
+So then if *L>P(2)* then the manipulator will naked short more shares than firm has outstanding. By naked shorting the same number of shares that are outstanding, the manipulator has doubled the float. (Pg. 55, footnote 77)
+
+Which makes sense: If the price is higher turns out to be higher than they expected then they have to drive price down even more. Naked shorting is effective because it dilutes the float.
+
+What About Incremental Shorting?
+
+Almost forgot this case, so I'll have to put it here at the end. I'm not gonna go too much into the math cause it just adds another layer of unneeded complexity.
+
+Basically you just need to know this, Finnerty proves that unless the manipulator is naked shorting and/or is a MM, it is not profitable to incrementally short sell (i.e. shorting a little, then covering a little, repeat).
+
+> In a market equilibrium in which the informed investor sells the profit-maximizing number of shares, I show later in the paper that incremental short sales by the manipulator will not be profitable. (Pg. 16, footnote 29)
+
+This shows how huge of a win the rule changes were. Had apes not gotten them, Shitadel would have continued to abuse their MM privileges and not had to worry about margin call. Now, they can't naked short as freely and its actually costing them to maintain short positions, and its only going to get worse.
+
+------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
+
+In the next volume, I'll explore :
+
+1.  The Majestic Ape Demand Curve
+
+2.  How apes fucked up the hedgies' algorithm
+
+3.  Why short attacks are getting weaker
+
+4.  Exponential & Log Chats
+
+5.  Why it is Impossible to Short Ape Curve Close to Zero
+
+---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
+
+TL:DR -> Finance professor (not me) mathematically proves that it's impossible to short a stock to zero without naked shorting at least as many shares as there are outstanding, doubling the float in the process.
+
+Hedgies r fuk.
+
+BUY, HODL, VOTE
+
+TA:DR -> Naked 🩳 + (🐒x🦍) + 🚀√🌕 =
+
+(Hedgies r fuk) 2 + 🍗🍗🍗
+
+--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
+
+This post brought to you on behalf of Margery Nesbitt.

DD/Math-Black-Magic-series-by-nydus-erdos/2021-06-10-The-Limit-Does-not-Exist-Part-II.md

@@ -0,0 +1,208 @@
+Math Black Magic Vol 2: The Limit Does not Exist!
+=================================================
+
+| Author       | Source       | 
+| :-------------: |:-------------:|
+|  [u/nydus_erdos](https://www.reddit.com/user/nydus_erdos/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nwy0oz/math_black_magic_vol_2_the_limit_does_not_exist/) | 
+
+---
+
+[DD 👨‍🔬](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22DD%20%F0%9F%91%A8%E2%80%8D%F0%9F%94%AC%22&restrict_sr=1)
+
+DISCLAIMER: Second part of my first DD. Not financial advice. All credit to the authors of cited works. I am not trying to karma farm or be dramatic by breaking this up into parts. I tried to post it all at once, but the picture limit had other plans.
+
+-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
+
+ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS:
+
+Shout out to [u/sososhibby](https://www.reddit.com/u/sososhibby/). One of their [comment](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nm3mtr/relevant_af/) got me started down this rabbit hole and they were nice enough to give my work a quick check before I posted. They've also posted about this topic as well: [Part 1](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nmaaaa/john_d_finnerty_excerpt_from_hoc_3_explained_pt1/), [Part 2](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nmdbzz/excerpt_from_hoc3_relevant_af_20_finnerty_fer/)
+
+[u/JNWolman](https://www.reddit.com/u/JNWolman/) was all over this topic months ago. IMO, the post didn't get the exposure it was due. Give it a [read](https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/comments/mgmbkf/would_the_real_exit_strategy_please_stand_up/).
+
+I'll also be using [charts](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nwwy5x/0610_update_broke_the_logfloor_by_1_5_in_linear/) from [u/JTH1](https://www.reddit.com/u/JTH1/), aka "exponential floor guy".
+
+-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
+
+A. Topics Explored
+
+In [Vol. 1](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nw8281/math_black_magic_vol_1_why_it_is_mathematically/), I laid out [Finnerty's paper](https://www.sec.gov/comments/s7-08-08/s70808-318.pdf) which mathematically proves that to drive a firms price very close to zero, a manipulator MUST naked short AT LEAST the same number of shares as there are shares outstanding, effectively doubling the float.
+
+This write up is more of my examination of the implications of Finnerty's paper and how it applies to GME. This is not meant to be proof, more of this smooth brain's musings. Feedback and constructive criticism are welcome. In this volume I'll examine:
+
+-   What I think the hedgies' algorithm and how apes fucked up said algo.
+
+    -   I should note, that I believe the algos covered here have been modified since, but the damage has been done.
+
+-   Why short attacks are getting weaker.
+
+-   The negative volume that pops up every so often.
+
+-   Why it is Impossible to Short Ape Curve Close to Zero.
+
+PROTIP: This volume is a bit more math heavy than the last, but don't let that intimidate you!
+
+Don't focus too much on the letters, as long as you know who is doing what at each time and what greater than (>) , less than (<) and equal (=) means you'll be good. I'll try to clarify anything that gets too intense.
+
+-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
+
+B. Naked Short Selling: Separating Equilibrium
+
+In separating equilibrium, the manipulator scares away the other participants with unconcealed, aggressive naked shorting. This maximizes profits by eliminating competition. Since the manipulator has price control it doesn't matter whether the time 3 price should be *H* or *L*.
+
+The lack of competition also makes this strategy a bit more formulaic than the previous examples. The manipulator maximizes his short sale proceeds by naked shorting at time 1 (Pg. 48 par. 1, Pg. 54-55, par. 1):
+
+[![r/Superstonk - Math Black Magic Vol 2: The Limit Does not Exist!](https://preview.redd.it/n42c0ax4ag471.png?width=1058&format=png&auto=webp&s=042be52553c72a8b726c3cfe08aa169145c5b35e)](https://preview.redd.it/n42c0ax4ag471.png?width=1058&format=png&auto=webp&s=042be52553c72a8b726c3cfe08aa169145c5b35e)
+
+Price at Time 1
+
+[![r/Superstonk - Math Black Magic Vol 2: The Limit Does not Exist!](https://preview.redd.it/53iy2wm8ag471.png?width=1074&format=png&auto=webp&s=0c529a4731e2fe5e73009d21f13f45017923a87d)](https://preview.redd.it/53iy2wm8ag471.png?width=1074&format=png&auto=webp&s=0c529a4731e2fe5e73009d21f13f45017923a87d)
+
+Price at Time 2
+
+[![r/Superstonk - Math Black Magic Vol 2: The Limit Does not Exist!](https://preview.redd.it/hku7v10hag471.png?width=1116&format=png&auto=webp&s=cb29b1b65823c35eebd53733bdc417e1d330930c)](https://preview.redd.it/hku7v10hag471.png?width=1116&format=png&auto=webp&s=cb29b1b65823c35eebd53733bdc417e1d330930c)
+
+Price at Time 3
+
+Note the rate of change:
+
+> This has occurred with a huge volume of naked shorting and a precipitous decrease in share price that first cut the price in half and then reduced it close to zero. (Pg. 46, par. 2)
+
+I found that statement slightly unclear as the price is reduced by a third then halved. At most it could be an editing mistake, but more than likely it is my smooth brain. Wrinkle brain help is appreciated.
+
+-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
+
+C. Inverted Demand Curve
+
+First, lets put the original general demand curve into slope intercept (i.e. make it easier to graph as a line):
+
+[![r/Superstonk - Math Black Magic Vol 2: The Limit Does not Exist!](https://preview.redd.it/99u0fkwpbg471.png?width=1079&format=png&auto=webp&s=16e5c56e020759b1add8ca735ed16bf23d230d1b)](https://preview.redd.it/99u0fkwpbg471.png?width=1079&format=png&auto=webp&s=16e5c56e020759b1add8ca735ed16bf23d230d1b)
+
+Slope Intercept Demand Function
+
+This is a line with a downwards slope of *-B*. Recall that in Finnerty's model, *B* is the price that retail buys, which is always lower than the prevailing price. That means that as retail acquires more and more shares, the price/demand will decrease.
+
+[![r/Superstonk - Math Black Magic Vol 2: The Limit Does not Exist!](https://preview.redd.it/26cayz89cg471.png?width=1052&format=png&auto=webp&s=070d5441380426260557d52bcd1db5fcdd3479e6)](https://preview.redd.it/26cayz89cg471.png?width=1052&format=png&auto=webp&s=070d5441380426260557d52bcd1db5fcdd3479e6)
+
+Demand Curve Comparison
+
+With apes, however, it works the opposite way. Yes, apes buy at any prices, but what I think fucked up the algorithm is apes buy at higher and higher prices because ape and FOMO. In this case, demand and price increase as supply increases. Meaning that if apes got all the shares, the price would rise to *H* This changes the slope of the demand curve positive:
+
+[![r/Superstonk - Math Black Magic Vol 2: The Limit Does not Exist!](https://preview.redd.it/mefhrczrcg471.png?width=1280&format=png&auto=webp&s=7ba9489b6191491937bd9e755e43b562fc731947)](https://preview.redd.it/mefhrczrcg471.png?width=1280&format=png&auto=webp&s=7ba9489b6191491937bd9e755e43b562fc731947)
+
+Ape Demand Function
+
+What I gathered from this is most of the hedgies' problem results from a simple change in sign. I take this a bit further and apply it to the exponential and log curves later on. I figure that the inverse of these functions is what fucked up what the algorithm originally intended.
+
+*Exponential & Logarithmic Graphs*
+
+The following list has the floors calculated by [u/JTH1](https://redditpreview.com/u/JTH1) (aka "exponential floor guy") and the inverted version of the curve I hypothesize the hedgies originally had planned:
+
+[![r/Superstonk - Math Black Magic Vol 2: The Limit Does not Exist!](https://preview.redd.it/a86fowc6eg471.png?width=1291&format=png&auto=webp&s=ddee910bdcee8a375241290b7608a740ad57736d)](https://preview.redd.it/a86fowc6eg471.png?width=1291&format=png&auto=webp&s=ddee910bdcee8a375241290b7608a740ad57736d)
+
+Ape & Hedgie Curves
+
+Based on this inverse hypothesis, I think this is the ideal curve hedgies wanted:
+
+[![r/Superstonk - Math Black Magic Vol 2: The Limit Does not Exist!](https://preview.redd.it/ys4mcl3mgh471.png?width=983&format=png&auto=webp&s=95a47f214cc84052888c2cf2182d910e3df536ed)](https://preview.redd.it/ys4mcl3mgh471.png?width=983&format=png&auto=webp&s=95a47f214cc84052888c2cf2182d910e3df536ed)
+
+Hedgie Curves
+
+If you want to see the current curve, check out exponential floor guy's posts (the most recent at the time of this writing is linked at the very top of the post).
+
+D. Pareto Principle & Rate of Change
+
+(This section is based heavily on a comment by sososhibby. This section makes a lot more sense if you read it. Its linked at the top.)
+
+*Hedgie Case*
+
+I thought it was interesting that the author stressed throughout the paper, that price is reduced CLOSE to zero and not zero.
+
+Remember, in separated equilibrium naked shorting drops the price by a third, then halves it before it quickly drops close to zero.
+
+That sounded like asymptotic behavior (asymptote = the thing the curve has to approach for the limit to exist, remember *Mean Girls?*), so I was curious to see the progression to zero so I kept it going and halved *P(2)* again and repeated the process with my result. I assume this is happening quickly between time 2 and time 3:
+
+[![r/Superstonk - Math Black Magic Vol 2: The Limit Does not Exist!](https://preview.redd.it/2o17ngi8lh471.png?width=973&format=png&auto=webp&s=1f44aafd13eb3f81ccb7f1f4db0214a41d84edd0)](https://preview.redd.it/2o17ngi8lh471.png?width=973&format=png&auto=webp&s=1f44aafd13eb3f81ccb7f1f4db0214a41d84edd0)
+
+[![r/Superstonk - Math Black Magic Vol 2: The Limit Does not Exist!](https://preview.redd.it/ero04mjalh471.png?width=910&format=png&auto=webp&s=9aa8b4836a4a7b880224998176146a060b2a65e3)](https://preview.redd.it/ero04mjalh471.png?width=910&format=png&auto=webp&s=9aa8b4836a4a7b880224998176146a060b2a65e3)
+
+Price Progression to Close to Zero
+
+I'd take it further but you get the picture. So I took the points made a scatter plot. Didn't look like much. I got curious and wanted to see if I could fit the negative exponential curve. I had to use some scaling factors, but always try to base them as a proportion of 1.
+
+[![r/Superstonk - Math Black Magic Vol 2: The Limit Does not Exist!](https://preview.redd.it/ekvd81pmlh471.png?width=876&format=png&auto=webp&s=8c1448d0d623d47ca188bbf95a5e38596b682d2a)](https://preview.redd.it/ekvd81pmlh471.png?width=876&format=png&auto=webp&s=8c1448d0d623d47ca188bbf95a5e38596b682d2a)
+
+[![r/Superstonk - Math Black Magic Vol 2: The Limit Does not Exist!](https://preview.redd.it/4ell2arrlh471.png?width=834&format=png&auto=webp&s=7e10e0d89e6c936605b574fe7bfe56cc738fbbd7)](https://preview.redd.it/4ell2arrlh471.png?width=834&format=png&auto=webp&s=7e10e0d89e6c936605b574fe7bfe56cc738fbbd7)
+
+Hedgie Curve
+
+Didn't look like much either, but the fact that it had asymptotic behavior at 0.2 or 20 percent. I figured it might be worth mentioning. Maybe somebody else can take it further.
+
+*Ape Case*
+
+Remember, in the normal case of naked shorting in separating equilibrium the price is dropped by a third, then halved, then taken close to zero.
+
+In the ape case, the price increases. This is where the exponential/power function may come into play. I tried to find the rate of change by re-computing values using equations from earlier:
+
+[![r/Superstonk - Math Black Magic Vol 2: The Limit Does not Exist!](https://preview.redd.it/wpa0e8femh471.png?width=1056&format=png&auto=webp&s=ffb70662e8d057f9ecefcdca7b73ba7c913a845c)](https://preview.redd.it/wpa0e8femh471.png?width=1056&format=png&auto=webp&s=ffb70662e8d057f9ecefcdca7b73ba7c913a845c)
+
+[![r/Superstonk - Math Black Magic Vol 2: The Limit Does not Exist!](https://preview.redd.it/c7cnltihmh471.png?width=975&format=png&auto=webp&s=fcfce22cebd58f6b95457afe6dafca3b775a1a38)](https://preview.redd.it/c7cnltihmh471.png?width=975&format=png&auto=webp&s=fcfce22cebd58f6b95457afe6dafca3b775a1a38)
+
+Ape Case
+
+As with the last set of values, I wanted to examine the behavior of the ape curve to find a rate of change. It looks like the price increases by a third, then by 1.25 or 25 percent.
+
+[![r/Superstonk - Math Black Magic Vol 2: The Limit Does not Exist!](https://preview.redd.it/pekkb7kvmh471.png?width=910&format=png&auto=webp&s=679c9df194127816f03002feb58a8159c88a012a)](https://preview.redd.it/pekkb7kvmh471.png?width=910&format=png&auto=webp&s=679c9df194127816f03002feb58a8159c88a012a)
+
+To the Moon!
+
+I did the same process of scatter and fitting curve this time with the exponential:
+
+[![r/Superstonk - Math Black Magic Vol 2: The Limit Does not Exist!](https://preview.redd.it/m9sioly1nh471.png?width=903&format=png&auto=webp&s=18f5889fcf4610d3c84b4de88f05dc9d1cc370de)](https://preview.redd.it/m9sioly1nh471.png?width=903&format=png&auto=webp&s=18f5889fcf4610d3c84b4de88f05dc9d1cc370de)
+
+Ape Curve
+
+Also, not sure if there's anything here, but the number 0.8 or 80 percent stood out to me. Need more wrinkled feedback.
+
+-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
+
+E. Impossible to Short to Zero
+
+I can use the same process as earlier to find the amount of shares needed to short the ape curve close to zero:
+
+[![r/Superstonk - Math Black Magic Vol 2: The Limit Does not Exist!](https://preview.redd.it/58fozggdnh471.png?width=989&format=png&auto=webp&s=69af8afc934a8c1bd51b42578ddf226dbc6acf52)](https://preview.redd.it/58fozggdnh471.png?width=989&format=png&auto=webp&s=69af8afc934a8c1bd51b42578ddf226dbc6acf52)
+
+Shares Needed to Zero
+
+These expressions violate our curve rules from earlier. All elements cannot be negative.
+
+[![r/Superstonk - Math Black Magic Vol 2: The Limit Does not Exist!](https://preview.redd.it/1ctkekv0oh471.png?width=938&format=png&auto=webp&s=9c66d9b4480d5a16c79b715e709d08516d654862)](https://preview.redd.it/1ctkekv0oh471.png?width=938&format=png&auto=webp&s=9c66d9b4480d5a16c79b715e709d08516d654862)
+
+Da Rules
+
+This seems to imply that if apes continue to BUY & HODL the price cannot go to zero. It is mathematically impossible.
+
+*Negative Volume*
+
+This is a connection I just made today, so I'll have to shoehorn it in here.
+
+For the last several months, negative volume will show up in the data feeds for various apes. [This](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nwta9j/what_is_this_fuckery_can_anyone_explain_a/) is the most recent incident.
+
+Now Dave Lauer did say that those were most likely end of the day rebalancing and whatnot, so I'm not suggesting anything tin foil-y.
+
+My hypothesis is simply that the negative candle is the manifestation of the algo doing something based on these curves. I don't know the algo is doing and I don't know if it is nefarious or not. I def need wrinkle brain feedback here.
+
+-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
+
+F. The Final Volume
+
+The final volume will be the shortest, but the juiciest. Based on what we've discussed, there may be a way to calculate how many shorted shares there are and find out the true short interest.
+
+-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
+
+TL:DR -> At this point, the number of shares needed to short $GME to zero does not mathematically exist.
+
+TA:DR -> $GME only go up! Math say so!
+
+--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
+
+This post brought to you on behalf of Margery Nesbitt. Help her find Kenny, he isn't taking her calls for some reason...

DD/Math-Black-Magic-series-by-nydus-erdos/2021-06-12-Trillion-Short-Share-Seance.md

@@ -0,0 +1,124 @@
+Math Black Magic Vol. 3: Trillion Short Share Seance
+====================================================
+
+| Author       | Source       | 
+| :-------------: |:-------------:|
+|  [u/nydus_erdos](https://www.reddit.com/user/nydus_erdos/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nya5ps/math_black_magic_vol_3_trillion_short_share_seance/) | 
+
+---
+
+[DD 👨‍🔬](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22DD%20%F0%9F%91%A8%E2%80%8D%F0%9F%94%AC%22&restrict_sr=1)
+
+DISCLAIMER: Third part of my first DD. Not financial advice. All credit to the authors of referenced works.
+
+--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
+
+ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS:
+
+I'll also be using equations from [u/JTH1](https://www.reddit.com/u/JTH1/)'s (aka "exponential floor guy") works.
+
+--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
+
+A. Quick Review
+
+In [Volume 1](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nw8281/math_black_magic_vol_1_why_it_is_mathematically/), I break down an academic finance paper by John Finnerty. In it, he mathematically proves that it's impossible to short a stock to zero without naked shorting AT LEAST as many shares as there are outstanding, doubling the float in the process.
+
+In [Volume 2](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nwy0oz/math_black_magic_vol_2_the_limit_does_not_exist/), I lay out how I think apes fucked up hedgies' algos initially, make conjecture on rates of change in our exponential graphs and show (through Finnerty's theories) that, at this point, the number of shares needed to short $GME to zero does not mathematically exist.
+
+--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
+
+B. Goal of This Volume
+
+So far we an equations that relate *P(t) to Q*
+
+[![r/Superstonk - Math Black Magic Vol. 3: Trillion Short Share Seance](https://preview.redd.it/sbv13sumfu471.png?width=648&format=png&auto=webp&s=63e2d69f476bb6add74ff9a5081c3e681283356f)](https://preview.redd.it/sbv13sumfu471.png?width=648&format=png&auto=webp&s=63e2d69f476bb6add74ff9a5081c3e681283356f)
+
+Demand Curves
+
+And equations that relate *P(t)* to *t*
+
+[![r/Superstonk - Math Black Magic Vol. 3: Trillion Short Share Seance](https://preview.redd.it/j2vdkh7cgu471.png?width=521&format=png&auto=webp&s=f27f8d220bb288937c388e6d32e89f861d82401b)](https://preview.redd.it/j2vdkh7cgu471.png?width=521&format=png&auto=webp&s=f27f8d220bb288937c388e6d32e89f861d82401b)
+
+Thanks to Exponential Floor Guy
+
+My goal is to find an equation that can relate Q and t. That equation can possibly be used to find the real short interest.
+
+--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
+
+C. Hedgies' Curves
+
+*Case 1*
+
+The hedgies' curves are the second equation in each list. First, I tried setting them equal to each other:
+
+[![r/Superstonk - Math Black Magic Vol. 3: Trillion Short Share Seance](https://preview.redd.it/8xr7dbtuiu471.png?width=1289&format=png&auto=webp&s=7ae5032792440214363242a29e88f9d59d687833)](https://preview.redd.it/8xr7dbtuiu471.png?width=1289&format=png&auto=webp&s=7ae5032792440214363242a29e88f9d59d687833)
+
+No new information here
+
+But, this doesn't really help me cause of I don't know *B*, so ~~I tried a little calculus~~ ~~did a little simple calculus~~ I had a math séance. Cover your eyes and skip to the next section if math horrifies you. I will begin the ritual with the traditional chant *ahem*
+
+[![r/Superstonk - Math Black Magic Vol. 3: Trillion Short Share Seance](https://preview.redd.it/76u4fk2aku471.png?width=1048&format=png&auto=webp&s=207ca8ca3213db1948f54ce3883639064350a637)](https://preview.redd.it/76u4fk2aku471.png?width=1048&format=png&auto=webp&s=207ca8ca3213db1948f54ce3883639064350a637)
+
+Yu Mo Gui Gwai Fai Di Zao, Yu Mo Gui Gwai Fai Di Zao, Yu Mo Gui Gwai Fai Di Zao...
+
+EDIT: I made a mistake in notation, the derivative of the linear equation should be taken with respect to Q (d/dQ). This will not change the answer as P(t) = D(Q)
+
+Now that we've completed the ritual and the dark gods have gifted us an equation lets plot that bad boy and find the amount of shares:
+
+[![r/Superstonk - Math Black Magic Vol. 3: Trillion Short Share Seance](https://preview.redd.it/co6mjaatlu471.png?width=952&format=png&auto=webp&s=1ef2e94f1ab30e25e3c5e1366ee1033573f589d2)](https://preview.redd.it/co6mjaatlu471.png?width=952&format=png&auto=webp&s=1ef2e94f1ab30e25e3c5e1366ee1033573f589d2)
+
+[![r/Superstonk - Math Black Magic Vol. 3: Trillion Short Share Seance](https://preview.redd.it/kiy1tob5nu471.png?width=974&format=png&auto=webp&s=fe08f2b2eebc2644acc7fd9d3868624224bdb58b)](https://preview.redd.it/kiy1tob5nu471.png?width=974&format=png&auto=webp&s=fe08f2b2eebc2644acc7fd9d3868624224bdb58b)
+
+1.4 TRILLION SHARES
+
+*Case 2*
+
+For such a huge number, I figured I should try the calculation again with a value of 40 dollars and see what I got:
+
+[![r/Superstonk - Math Black Magic Vol. 3: Trillion Short Share Seance](https://preview.redd.it/b5bnuvhcou471.png?width=852&format=png&auto=webp&s=12a2acbd89881b3770b72f34efb9f842816bb6e7)](https://preview.redd.it/b5bnuvhcou471.png?width=852&format=png&auto=webp&s=12a2acbd89881b3770b72f34efb9f842816bb6e7)
+
+[![r/Superstonk - Math Black Magic Vol. 3: Trillion Short Share Seance](https://preview.redd.it/1sqnpp1gou471.png?width=934&format=png&auto=webp&s=f4d7b7039e64470915de0b656377fc3055f4a75d)](https://preview.redd.it/1sqnpp1gou471.png?width=934&format=png&auto=webp&s=f4d7b7039e64470915de0b656377fc3055f4a75d)
+
+[![r/Superstonk - Math Black Magic Vol. 3: Trillion Short Share Seance](https://preview.redd.it/9wyb54dmou471.png?width=973&format=png&auto=webp&s=8c8b8016ce118d76979b89215db3a0ebb8fafe66)](https://preview.redd.it/9wyb54dmou471.png?width=973&format=png&auto=webp&s=8c8b8016ce118d76979b89215db3a0ebb8fafe66)
+
+116 BILLION SHARES
+
+--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
+
+D. Ape's Curves
+
+I will now perform part two of the math séance, by repeating the process above for the ape curve:
+
+[![r/Superstonk - Math Black Magic Vol. 3: Trillion Short Share Seance](https://preview.redd.it/ukba2075pu471.png?width=1007&format=png&auto=webp&s=d0f81c578fb481cab287a3fb4846cf9326f6062c)](https://preview.redd.it/ukba2075pu471.png?width=1007&format=png&auto=webp&s=d0f81c578fb481cab287a3fb4846cf9326f6062c)
+
+[![r/Superstonk - Math Black Magic Vol. 3: Trillion Short Share Seance](https://preview.redd.it/fitnd4a8pu471.png?width=1036&format=png&auto=webp&s=47b616777fedf483dc2004b9108e6457b32e1cfc)](https://preview.redd.it/fitnd4a8pu471.png?width=1036&format=png&auto=webp&s=47b616777fedf483dc2004b9108e6457b32e1cfc)
+
+I Implore the Spirit of Isaac Newton, Aid Me In My Dark Deed...
+
+Now this is what things get VERY interesting, check out that asymptote:
+
+[![r/Superstonk - Math Black Magic Vol. 3: Trillion Short Share Seance](https://preview.redd.it/xdb6gd56qu471.png?width=871&format=png&auto=webp&s=6f34aa774b64c4ddbf0bc0b3161142ef0fe9ed36)](https://preview.redd.it/xdb6gd56qu471.png?width=871&format=png&auto=webp&s=6f34aa774b64c4ddbf0bc0b3161142ef0fe9ed36)
+
+[![r/Superstonk - Math Black Magic Vol. 3: Trillion Short Share Seance](https://preview.redd.it/59673f2aqu471.png?width=1025&format=png&auto=webp&s=af9d1952760e62ad7324eb3ac0551141188dc258)](https://preview.redd.it/59673f2aqu471.png?width=1025&format=png&auto=webp&s=af9d1952760e62ad7324eb3ac0551141188dc258)
+
+837 MILLION SHARES
+
+I'm not sure what the asymptote implies or represents, but I feel that its significant.
+
+--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
+
+E. Conclusion
+
+Thanks for coming to my APE Talk. Constructive criticism is always welcome!
+
+TL:DR -> Hedgies have naked shorted, at most, about 1.4 trillion shares and, at least, about 837 million shares.
+
+TA:DR -> Hedgies have pissed off math gods. Hedgies r fuk.
+
+--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
+
+F. Questions I Could Use Help With
+
+-   What does that asymptote represent? Is this when it no longer becomes possible for hedgies to dilute the float meaningfully? Is this the stalemate that occurs when the shares are being bought at higher rate?
+
+-   Have I calculated how many shares have been naked shorted or how many shares retail holds? The way Finnerty frames it, I believe the shares I calculate are the amount of shares naked shorted. However, the demand curve equation says it describes how many shares retail investors hold. I think it can describe both, but I'm sure what context the results of my calculations are in.

DD/Math-Black-Magic-series-by-nydus-erdos/2021-07-04-Epilogue-Part-IV.md

@@ -0,0 +1,68 @@
+Math Black Magic, Final Vol: Epilogue
+=====================================
+
+| Author       | Source       | 
+| :-------------: |:-------------:|
+|  [u/nydus_erdos](https://www.reddit.com/user/nydus_erdos/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/odrnbv/math_black_magic_final_vol_epilogue/) | 
+
+---
+
+[DD 👨‍🔬](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22DD%20%F0%9F%91%A8%E2%80%8D%F0%9F%94%AC%22&restrict_sr=1)
+
+Not financial advice. All credit to the authors of cited works
+
+THE PREVIOUS VOLUMES ARE ESSENTIAL TO UNDERSTANDING THIS POST: [Vol. 1](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nw8281/math_black_magic_vol_1_why_it_is_mathematically/), [Vol. 2](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nwy0oz/math_black_magic_vol_2_the_limit_does_not_exist/), [Vol. 3](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nya5ps/math_black_magic_vol_3_trillion_short_share_seance/)
+
+----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
+
+1\. Quick Recap
+
+In 2005, finance professor John Finnerty published a paper entitled: [Short Selling, Death Spiral Convertibles and the Profitability of Stock Manipulation](https://www.sec.gov/comments/s7-08-08/s70808-318.pdf). Using math and game theory he presents a model depicting a manipulated market. I covered the paper extensively in Vol. 1 and applied some of the concepts in Vol. 2 and 3 to try to estimate the total number of shares shorted. I stand by my methods, but they needed refinement. I reworked some things and I feel much more confident about my results here.
+
+----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
+
+2\. Method
+
+My methods are pretty much the same as last time, so this post will be relatively short and not so many graphs or derivations. There are nuances, but I'm saving most of them for the next series since they require a lot of background knowledge. If there's something that seems like I didn't explain fully, it'll be covered extensively later.
+
+Using the pattern laid out earlier, I analyzed the largest drops I could find before the Sneeze, during the Sneeze, and after. I used Finnerty's formulas to calculate quantity of shares shorted and combined them with price data. Using data processing software, I ran several scenarios, based on Finnerty's model and choose the lowest reasonable answer based on past behavior and revealed data. Using all this I found cumulative SI.
+
+I did not have an explicit control, however now that we have some idea of the real short interest stated in the recent Robinhood document, I used that data to calibrate the model. I also used an example referenced in the paper regarding a company called Charter Communications:
+
+> "The NASD reported that Charter had short interest of 88,520,000 shares inJanuary 2005, but Charter reported having a float of only 36,600,000 shares."Pg. 45, footnote 66
+
+That's about 2.4 times the float. I tried to find more info about Charter, but it seems like its hard to get any info about stocks pre-2010. Anyway, it gave me some reference point of what a highly shorted stock (at that point) looked like.
+
+This model only goes from 10/30/15 to 4/12/2021. Past there I couldn't find any meaningful large drops. Since this model is still general, complexity is the enemy at this point. Future projects involve refining the model with more complexity in mind. Until then, I wouldn't feel confident in any answer I got from a smaller drop.
+
+----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
+
+3\. Refined Results
+
+As of 4/12/2021:
+
+-   Shitadel and Co. had cumulatively shorted approximately 3 billion shares
+
+-   The short interest was about 4,302 percent. That's 43 times shares outstanding.
+
+-   At current average daily volume (~7.6 million) that's 400 days to cover, which amounts to 1.6 trading years.
+
+----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
+
+4\. What's Next
+
+My next series will be titled *The Chronicles of Short and Shorter*. In order to write it I had to gain a deeper understanding of the concepts we've used. This led me to the most intense knowledge binge of my adult life: microeconomics. Holy fuck. What a blessed rabbit hole. This is the subject that's pretty much the basis for everything Finnerty wrote. As I am a veryyy autistic ape, it never occurred to me to try to find what the field was called. It allowed to me to take some of Finnerty's concepts further and answer some more questions. So, over the next series we'll:
+
+-   Go over some economic concepts
+
+-   Dissect Shitadel and Co.'s strategy and patterns of attack in the pre-Sneeze period, during the Sneeze and post-Sneeze period.
+
+-   Estimate Shitadel and Co.'s cost function
+
+-   Give my idea on what exponential floor guy's findings might be caused by
+
+----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
+
+TL;DR ==> See section 3.
+
+TA;DR ==> Math gods are still pissed at hedgies. Hedgies r still fuk.

DD/Math-Black-Magic-series-by-nydus-erdos/2021-07-06-Malleus-Oeconomica-A-Compressed-Primer.md

@@ -0,0 +1,157 @@
+Malleus Oeconomica: A Compressed Primer
+=======================================
+
+| Author       | Source       | 
+| :-------------: |:-------------:|
+|  [u/nydus_erdos](https://www.reddit.com/user/nydus_erdos/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/of1lz2/malleus_oeconomica_a_compressed_primer/) | 
+
+---
+
+
+[DD 👨‍🔬](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22DD%20%F0%9F%91%A8%E2%80%8D%F0%9F%94%AC%22&restrict_sr=1)
+
+Not financial advice.
+
+Previous Volumes below. If something seems unclear, the answer is probably in here:
+
+[Vol. 1](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nw8281/math_black_magic_vol_1_why_it_is_mathematically/), [Vol. 2](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nwy0oz/math_black_magic_vol_2_the_limit_does_not_exist/), [Vol. 3](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nya5ps/math_black_magic_vol_3_trillion_short_share_seance/), [Epilogue](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/odrnbv/math_black_magic_final_vol_epilogue/)
+
+Main Sources: [Finnerty Paper](https://www.sec.gov/comments/s7-08-08/s70808-318.pdf), [Microeconomics 7th Edition by Jeffrey M. Perloff](http://dl.rasabourse.com/MIT.Mircroeconomics.Jeffrey%20M.%20Perloff%20-%20Microeconomics%20(2014,%20Pearson).pdf)
+
+-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
+
+0\. Clarification
+
+In my last post I was a little unclear about what my numbers describe. They represent the total amount of shares ever shorted. I can't speak to whether these shares were covered or what their status is now. The model is quite simple at the moment and needs further developing. I plan to integrate more variables as time goes on and get more precision.
+
+-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
+
+1\. Purpose
+
+The ultimate reason for this primer is twofold. First, I want to give the background of the concepts I'll be referencing heavily in future works. Second, is to show how crazy this situation appears to be in terms of economics. The market that Kenny and Co. have created seems to be an anomaly. In order to show how abnormal what they've created is, I have to give you some idea on what the norm is and is not.
+
+-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
+
+2\. Supply & Demand
+
+-   Most important thing regarding this topic, I thought that quantity supplied or demanded determines price, however its actually the other way around: Price determines quantity supplied or demanded.
+
+-   Law of Demand says that as price increases, quantity demanded decreases. In normal cases, this is because once the good becomes too expensive, people will find a cheaper alternative.
+
+-   Law of Supply says that as price increases, quantity supplied increases. This is because if an item is selling for a high price, producers have incentive to produce more.
+
+-   Another important point, in a perfectly competitive market quantity demanded =/= quantity supplied. This is why we have surpluses or shortages.
+
+-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
+
+3\. Important terms
+
+A mathematical function expresses the relationship between the independent variable and dependent variable. It is usually denoted in the general form f(x). In a specific form, f and x can be any variable.
+
+-   A monopoly is the only supplier of a good that has no close substitute
+
+-   A firm's marginal cost or marginal revenue is the amount by which a firm's total cost or revenue changes if the firm produces one more unit of output.
+
+-   The law of diminishing marginal returns holds that if a firm keeps increasing an input, holding all other inputs constant, the corresponding increases in output will become smaller eventually. In ape, marginal revenue diminishes past a certain quantity sold. Diminishing marginal returns determines the shape of the marginal cost curve.
+
+-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
+
+4\. Variable Descriptions
+
+[![r/Superstonk - Malleus Oeconomica: A Compressed Primer](https://preview.redd.it/ti2pyq57sm971.png?width=612&format=png&auto=webp&s=9f78fc7c270555c3b2ad2659b41f4daeb0cacacd)](https://preview.redd.it/ti2pyq57sm971.png?width=612&format=png&auto=webp&s=9f78fc7c270555c3b2ad2659b41f4daeb0cacacd)
+
+Variables
+
+-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
+
+5\. Supply and Demand Curves
+
+When speaking about any type of supply and demand curves, the variables on the axes are price and quantity, and they are usually expressed linearly. In reality, supply and demand curves do not have to be linear and come in non-linear forms. However, economists try to express them linearly whenever they can for simplicity sake. The most important thing to note here is that in supply and demand functions, price is the independent variable and quantity is the dependent variable or *Q(P)*. This means that *Q* should be on the y-axis and *P* should be on the x-axis. I won't be going into these functions in depth just yet.
+
+-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
+
+6\. Inverse Supply and Demand Curves
+
+Why am I going through inverse curves first? Because in economics they break some mathematical conventions we take for granted, which makes things admittedly very confusing. First thing, economists are extremely kinky when it comes to the axes of their charts For example:
+
+> "It is the convention in economics to always display a demand and supply curve with amount Q on the x-axis and price P on the y-axis. Thus, technically speaking, when we sketch the demand curve we are really sketching the inverse demand curve because Q is the independent variable and P is the dependent variable. In order to sketch the demand and supply curves, we must first therefore rearrange to make P the subject of the expression." ([Pg. 1-2](https://users.ox.ac.uk/~sedm1375/Teaching/Micro/week4.pdf))
+
+Wat? That's literally what I said after reading it for the 30th time, but after much more research here's my short answer: economists prefer to always have price, the independent variable, on the y-axis as it makes it easier to interpret the charts (for them). To which the math gods say: 'You can call it whatever you want, but if its on the y-axis it is the dependent variable and if its on the x-axis its the independent variable.' To which the economists said,
+
+[![r/Superstonk - Malleus Oeconomica: A Compressed Primer](https://preview.redd.it/rgx5mp5cum971.png?width=573&format=png&auto=webp&s=e7b3b1c61b1fbd6f71f25253961a26263351ed61)](https://preview.redd.it/rgx5mp5cum971.png?width=573&format=png&auto=webp&s=e7b3b1c61b1fbd6f71f25253961a26263351ed61)
+
+Verse 23
+
+Anyway, apparently its common for economists to express supply/demand curves in their inverse form. Here is the general inverse form:
+
+[![r/Superstonk - Malleus Oeconomica: A Compressed Primer](https://preview.redd.it/j3gb83m6vm971.png?width=323&format=png&auto=webp&s=fdf68c7fae68086d3b3307183fe8a2e0089d53be)](https://preview.redd.it/j3gb83m6vm971.png?width=323&format=png&auto=webp&s=fdf68c7fae68086d3b3307183fe8a2e0089d53be)
+
+Inverse Demand Function
+
+This should look familiar as this is the curve Finnerty uses in his paper. Apparently, it is common to express demand curves in their inverse forms.
+
+-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
+
+7\. Regular Supply and Demand Curves
+
+So how do we find the regular demand curve? Turns out we already did it in the previous volumes. Here it is again with one additional tweak:
+
+[![r/Superstonk - Malleus Oeconomica: A Compressed Primer](https://preview.redd.it/ddocvf3jvm971.png?width=948&format=png&auto=webp&s=122e9304f7218810d1023abba31c6eb07896bd77)](https://preview.redd.it/ddocvf3jvm971.png?width=948&format=png&auto=webp&s=122e9304f7218810d1023abba31c6eb07896bd77)
+
+Demand Function
+
+-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
+
+8\. Slope vs. Elasticity
+
+More confusing concepts incoming: Within microeconomics, elasticity and slope are always regarded as a pair of two closely related concepts, but are not the same. Slope is the change of the dependent variable per the change of the independent variable. Elasticity is the percentage change in a variable in response to a given percentage change in another variable. (Quick side note: turns out [elasticity is also a concept studied in pure mathematics as well](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elasticity_of_a_function)). One of the results of using this convention is that linear demand/supply curves have a constant slope, but not constant elasticity. Why all this tomfoolery? Because elasticity is unitless (i.e. normalized), so we don't have to worry about different units. Here are the equations and their equivalents:
+
+[![r/Superstonk - Malleus Oeconomica: A Compressed Primer](https://preview.redd.it/elpqvldxvm971.png?width=644&format=png&auto=webp&s=fd8a734c163099eac93b72d6dcd0ddee1b369c9b)](https://preview.redd.it/elpqvldxvm971.png?width=644&format=png&auto=webp&s=fd8a734c163099eac93b72d6dcd0ddee1b369c9b)
+
+Elasticity
+
+I'll give you a hypothetical and a real world example of why this is useful:
+
+-   Say, hypothetically, there an ape outside the US doing the same calculations I am. Since we are using different currency, we would not get the same answers unless we normalized our answers first.
+
+-   IRL, one of the things I struggled with in this project is I would get reasonable answers but they would always be off by a decimal place or two. Once I normalized, the slope those problems went away. Because I was moving between tens of dollars/shares, to hundreds of dollars/share, all the way up to billions of dollars/shares. Its no wonder why the decimal point got all jostled around.
+
+-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
+
+9\. Types of Elasticity
+
+'Member talking about how elasticity is different along a demand/supply curve. Well the curve itself? Well, we can basically divide the curve up into three parts:
+
+1.  At the midpoint of the linear demand curve is called unitary (unit) elastic and is equal to -1. Here a one percent increase in price causes a one percent fall in quantity. I interpret this point to be similar to average elasticity of the curve.
+
+2.  For quantities between the midpoint of the linear demand curve and the lower end, the elasticity is between 0 and -1 and is inelastic. Where the demand curve is inelastic, a one percent increase in price leads to a fall in quantity of less than one percent.
+
+3.  For quantities between the midpoint of the linear demand curve and the upper end, the elasticity is less than -1 and is elastic. Here a one percent increase in price causes quantity to fall by more than one percent.
+
+[![r/Superstonk - Malleus Oeconomica: A Compressed Primer](https://preview.redd.it/rn13yfkpwm971.png?width=1162&format=png&auto=webp&s=78904f435be146a8a0459e1a5c3247fdaeacf352)](https://preview.redd.it/rn13yfkpwm971.png?width=1162&format=png&auto=webp&s=78904f435be146a8a0459e1a5c3247fdaeacf352)
+
+Elasticity Along Curve
+
+-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
+
+10\. Monopoly Market Structure
+
+-   A monopoly's profit is maximized in the elastic portion of the demand curve.
+
+-   The monopolist is able to set a price above marginal cost without losing all of their sales. This means its demand curve slopes downward, which is not the case in a perfectly competitive market.
+
+-   Since the monopolist has market control, the firm can set the market price or set how much they decide to produce. In the textbook, they usually assume the monopoly chooses to set quantity. We'll do the same as well.
+
+-   Unlike a competitive firm, a monopoly does not have a supply curve.
+
+-   The lack of a supply curve makes a monopoly's output decision dependent on the shapes of its marginal cost curve and its demand curve. In a competitive market, a firm is only constrained by the shape of the marginal cost curve.
+
+-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
+
+11\. Coming Next
+
+Now that there's finally some background knowledge, we can start getting to the refined model and how I got my numbers
+
+-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
+
+TL:DR => Honestly, I don't know how to compress it anymore

DD/Peek-a-boo-I-See-You-Hidden-Shorts-series-by-WhatCanIMakeToday/2021-07-06-Peek-a-Boo-I-See-103M-Hidden-Shorts-Pt-II.md

@@ -0,0 +1,45 @@
+Peek-a-boo! I see 103M hidden shorts! (Part Deux)
+=================================================
+
+| Author       | Source       | 
+| :-------------: |:-------------:|
+|  [u/WhatCanIMakeToday](https://www.reddit.com/user/WhatCanIMakeToday/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/oenvoh/peekaboo_i_see_103m_hidden_shorts_part_deux/) | 
+
+---
+
+[DD 👨‍🔬](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22DD%20%F0%9F%91%A8%E2%80%8D%F0%9F%94%AC%22&restrict_sr=1)
+
+Part Uno (you might want to read it first for background): <https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/odsded/peekaboo_i_see_you_79m_hidden_shorts/>
+
+I'm BAAACK!
+
+After finding 79M hidden shorts in married puts, I asked myself "Can I do better?" I didn't disappoint. Don't get me wrong, I'm disappointed (yet also happy) that I found more shorts.
+
+In Part Uno, I searched for new deep OTM Put Options that have no business being opened and found 79M shares worth of options (about 792k opened Put options) opened during the Jan GME spike. I used a rather crude approach which was assuming worthless options are at the deepest OTM Put strike and then expanded that to strikes <= $5. Crude, but it worked fairly well.
+
+Here in Part Deux, I've improved on it by growing a wrinkle about options greeks.
+
+Using the same GME Options Data set I bought for about $21 from <https://www.historicaloptiondata.com/> for 2021 up to end of June, I did the following:
+
+1.  Filtered the data set down to get two snapshots in time: Jan 19th, 2021 and Feb 1st, 2021. This is effectively bracketing the week before and week of the huge GME Jan spike. Whatever happens in here *should* 100% be tied to that crazy spike. (I just realized I'm undercounting a bit because the spike, T, was Jan 28th and Feb 1 is only T+2. I'm too lazy to rerun the process right now to expand out and you'll get the picture.)
+
+2.  Filtered out only for Puts (duh) because we're looking for Married Puts.
+
+3.  (NEW for Part Deux!) Filtered by *delta* which is an option greek that represents how much the option value changes per $1 change in the underlying stock price. I filtered for *delta* < 0.01 which means if the stock price moves by $1, the price of these options moves by a penny ($0.01) or less. These options are *literally* worthless.\
+    Grow wrinkles about option greeks here: <https://www.investopedia.com/terms/g/greeks.asp>
+
+4.  Summed up the total Open Interest for all remaining Puts.
+
+Total Open Interest for Puts with delta <= 0.01:
+
+| As of Jan 19, 2021 | As of Feb 1, 2021 |
+| --- | --- |
+| 58,970 | 1,096,066 |
+
+*Wut mean?* Over 1M worthless junk put options were opened in the 2 weeks (from Jan 19th to Feb 1st, 10 trading days) of our January spike. 1,037,096 worthless put options were opened. Sink that in because those brand spanking, newly opened, absolutely worthless options are capable of hiding over 103,700,000 (103M) shares.
+
+Updates:
+
+1.  Why worthless puts? See <https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/comments/mgj0j1/the_naked_shorting_scam_revealed_lending_of/>
+
+2.  The prior 79M is a subset of this 103M. This approach is a more accurate way to count worthless options.

DD/Peek-a-boo-I-See-You-Hidden-Shorts-series-by-WhatCanIMakeToday/2021-07-06-Peek-a-Boo-I-Track-You-Kicked-Cans.md

@@ -0,0 +1,47 @@
+Peek-A-Boo! I Track You Kicked Cans!
+====================================
+
+| Author       | Source       | 
+| :-------------: |:-------------:|
+|  [u/WhatCanIMakeToday](https://www.reddit.com/user/WhatCanIMakeToday/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/of1zn4/peekaboo_i_track_you_kicked_cans/) | 
+
+---
+
+
+[DD 👨‍🔬](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22DD%20%F0%9F%91%A8%E2%80%8D%F0%9F%94%AC%22&restrict_sr=1)
+
+If you've been following along with my posts, you'll know I track deep worthless OTM puts which SuperStonk has suspected of being used for married puts to defer FTDs. If you're new, you may want to catch up with my previous posts:
+
+-   [Historical GME 7/14/21 Options OI to see how many cans got kicked & how far](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/ocen11/historical_gme_71421_options_oi_to_see_how_many/). This was my original post when I realized we can see exactly which day options are opened. And, by looking at which expiration, we can see how far cans get kicked.
+
+-   [Peek-a-boo! I see you 79M hidden shorts!](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/odsded/peekaboo_i_see_you_79m_hidden_shorts/) is where I start tracking these suspected hidden shorts by focusing on new opens during GME's Jan spike.
+
+-   [Peek-a-boo! I see 103M hidden shorts! (Part Deux)](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/oenvoh/peekaboo_i_see_103m_hidden_shorts_part_deux/) is where I learned to use delta to determine that a newly opened option is actually worthless which allows for a really good estimate of how many worthless options are opened to hide shorts during GME's Jan spike.
+
+As we see those cans in Jan 2021 kicked down the road to various expirations, we're now going to see *where* those cans are kicked. We see many of those cans stacking up in the upcoming July options expiration so we'll start there.
+
+I used the same GME Options data set from <https://www.historicaloptiondata.com/> for 2021 up to end of June (best $21 ever spent). I looked at the end of June (6/30) to find which July Put option has the most OI: July $0.50 Put with 148k OI. (The runner up is the $1 strike with 30k OI so I'm going to skip that for a cleaner chart.)
+
+I extracted the daily open interest data for that July $0.50 Put and then calculated the new Open Interest for each day. This OI Change effectively shows you how many of those Puts were opened (or closed) that day. When we look at the July $0.50 Put line (blue), there's a noticeable spike in March.
+
+So I did the same for the highest OI Jan 2022 leap puts (@ $0.50 strike) and the highest OI March 19 Puts (@ $1.00 strike). (Of course, for the options expiring March 19th, I had to get that data as of March 19th instead of June 30.) The second highest Jan 2022 leap put OI was the $1 strike with 29k OI and the second highest March 19 put OI was at the $10 strike with 37k OI. I'm setting these aside for now because you can see the trend with just the highest OI at the deepest OTM strike and this keeps the chart cleaner.
+
+Have a nice chart:
+
+![Put Open Interest Change per Day for March, July, and Jan 2022 Leap Options](https://user-images.githubusercontent.com/82035192/124762045-73291b80-df00-11eb-9c0c-81ef5f99c7f5.png)
+
+[Put Open Interest Change per Day for March, July, and Jan 2022 Leap Options](https://preview.redd.it/u3armgxwrm971.png?width=1452&format=png&auto=webp&s=85e3e66ebf404f7c9f2b3f02ab870b6ba3f5ace3)
+
+Here we can see lots of March 19th $1.00 Put options (green line) being opened in January at the "Oh Shit" moment and again in late February (presumably soon after the Feb options expired). This suggests the March expiration was used twice for can kicking from Jan and then again in Feb.
+
+As the worthless March puts expired worthless in mid-March, you see a huge spike of new worthless July $0.50 P options (blue line) being opened up. Effectively, we're seeing cans that were kicked only a couple months out to March being kicked out again to July.
+
+As July expiration comes up, we see 148k (@ the $0.50 strike) and 30k (@ the $1.00 strike) options expiring which is a solid 178k deep OTM puts almost certainly being used to hide about 17.8M shares just at those bottom two strikes. As of March 19, the deltas for all July option strikes below $13 have been 0 which means upwards of 273k worthless puts (probably hiding over 27M shares) are coming due. (As of March 19th, delta is under 0.01 up to around the $26 strike so many people would probably consider those to also be worthless. Why open worthless options positions?)
+
+[ToS showing deltas for options as of March 19th](https://preview.redd.it/yl58wsuk6n971.png?width=5000&format=png&auto=webp&s=53537adfaf50a915e3f1022c0c7fa083d8cbbf8e)
+
+With this analytical approach, we can see which future expirations those cans get kicked to. *And*, we can estimate the number of cans by summing up the new OI for options with delta < 0.01.
+
+I'm looking forward to doing another analysis towards the end of July! Thanks for reading!
+
+Edit: Fully spell out SuperStonk. Credit [u/b_h_w](https://www.reddit.com/u/b_h_w/)

DD/Reverse-Repurchase-Operations/2021-07-09-Diagram-of-Reverse-Repos.md

@@ -0,0 +1,13 @@
+I can't believe you apes are having such trouble understanding Reverse Repos.
+=============================================================================
+
+| Author       | Source       | 
+| :-------------: |:-------------:|
+|  [u/Chumbag_love](https://www.reddit.com/user/Chumbag_love/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/oh4lyz/i_cant_believe_you_apes_are_having_such_trouble/) | 
+
+---
+
+
+[Education 👨‍🏫 | Data 🔢](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22Education%20%F0%9F%91%A8%E2%80%8D%F0%9F%8F%AB%20%7C%20Data%20%F0%9F%94%A2%22&restrict_sr=1)
+
+[![r/Superstonk - I can't believe you apes are having such trouble understanding Reverse Repos.](https://preview.redd.it/95kgcm5249a71.png?width=960&crop=smart&auto=webp&s=ab7853ac22aaf43278c7c15a189597cf14590de7)](https://i.redd.it/95kgcm5249a71.png)

DD/Reverse-Repurchase-Operations/Reverse-Repo-Operations-by-pctracer/2021-07-06-Reverse-Repo-Update.md

@@ -0,0 +1,11 @@
+### 🔴Daily Reverse Repo Update 07/06: $772.581B🔴
+
+| Author       | Source       | 
+| :-------------: |:-------------:|
+|  [u/pctracer](https://www.reddit.com/user/pctracer/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/oezg9l/daily_reverse_repo_update_0706_772581b/) | 
+
+---
+
+[Education 👨‍🏫 | Data 🔢](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/?f=flair_name%3A%22Education%20%F0%9F%91%A8%E2%80%8D%F0%9F%8F%AB%20%7C%20Data%20%F0%9F%94%A2%22)
+
+![image](https://user-images.githubusercontent.com/82035192/124798562-7c76b000-df21-11eb-92e8-732b4a77e8be.png)

DD/Reverse-Repurchase-Operations/Reverse-Repo-Operations-by-pctracer/2021-07-07-Reverse-Repo-Update.md

@@ -0,0 +1,12 @@
+🔴Daily Reverse Repo Update 07/07: $785.720B🔴
+==============================================
+
+| Author       | Source       | 
+| :-------------: |:-------------:|
+|  [u/pctracer](https://www.reddit.com/user/pctracer/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/ofnful/daily_reverse_repo_update_0707_785720b/) | 
+
+---
+
+[Education 👨‍🏫 | Data 🔢](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22Education%20%F0%9F%91%A8%E2%80%8D%F0%9F%8F%AB%20%7C%20Data%20%F0%9F%94%A2%22&restrict_sr=1)
+
+![image](https://user-images.githubusercontent.com/82035192/126492438-7853e46a-9898-4178-856f-ae05d80a7d9f.png)

DD/Reverse-Repurchase-Operations/Reverse-Repo-Operations-by-pctracer/2021-07-08-Reverse-Repo-Update.md

@@ -0,0 +1,12 @@
+🔴Daily Reverse Repo Update 07/08: $793.399B🔴
+==============================================
+
+| Author       | Source       | 
+| :-------------: |:-------------:|
+|  [u/pctracer](https://www.reddit.com/user/pctracer/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/ogbrfh/daily_reverse_repo_update_0708_793399b/) | 
+
+---
+
+[Education 👨‍🏫 | Data 🔢](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22Education%20%F0%9F%91%A8%E2%80%8D%F0%9F%8F%AB%20%7C%20Data%20%F0%9F%94%A2%22&restrict_sr=1)
+
+![image](https://user-images.githubusercontent.com/82035192/126492549-44c34fc8-78ee-4712-8f3e-685eb580ecb1.png)

DD/Reverse-Repurchase-Operations/Reverse-Repo-Operations-by-pctracer/2021-07-09-Reverse-Repo-Update.md

@@ -0,0 +1,12 @@
+🔴Daily Reverse Repo Update 07/09: $780.596B🔴
+==============================================
+
+| Author       | Source       | 
+| :-------------: |:-------------:|
+|  [u/pctracer](https://www.reddit.com/user/pctracer/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/oh09j2/daily_reverse_repo_update_0709_780596b/) | 
+
+---
+
+[Education 👨‍🏫 | Data 🔢](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22Education%20%F0%9F%91%A8%E2%80%8D%F0%9F%8F%AB%20%7C%20Data%20%F0%9F%94%A2%22&restrict_sr=1)
+
+![image](https://user-images.githubusercontent.com/82035192/126492744-0c3b3f46-9bb4-4133-a1a7-08f75a308d93.png)

DD/Reverse-Repurchase-Operations/Reverse-Repo-Operations-by-pctracer/2021-07-12-Reverse-Repo-Update.md

@@ -0,0 +1,12 @@
+🔴Daily Reverse Repo Update 07/12: $776.472B🔴
+==============================================
+
+| Author       | Source       | 
+| :-------------: |:-------------:|
+|  [u/pctracer](https://www.reddit.com/user/pctracer/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/oivs13/daily_reverse_repo_update_0712_776472b/) | 
+
+---
+
+[Education 👨‍🏫 | Data 🔢](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22Education%20%F0%9F%91%A8%E2%80%8D%F0%9F%8F%AB%20%7C%20Data%20%F0%9F%94%A2%22&restrict_sr=1)
+
+![image](https://user-images.githubusercontent.com/82035192/126492885-668523b3-84d1-4f24-872e-d48a29e3b425.png)

DD/Reverse-Repurchase-Operations/Reverse-Repo-Operations-by-pctracer/2021-07-13-Reverse-Repo-Update.md

@@ -0,0 +1,12 @@
+🔴Daily Reverse Repo Update 07/13: $798.267B🔴
+==============================================
+
+| Author       | Source       | 
+| :-------------: |:-------------:|
+|  [u/pctracer](https://www.reddit.com/user/pctracer/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/ojk6za/daily_reverse_repo_update_0713_798267b/) | 
+
+---
+
+[Education 👨‍🏫 | Data 🔢](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22Education%20%F0%9F%91%A8%E2%80%8D%F0%9F%8F%AB%20%7C%20Data%20%F0%9F%94%A2%22&restrict_sr=1)
+
+![image](https://user-images.githubusercontent.com/82035192/126493033-73e2ca33-08bd-43f6-814a-d7ff4384ce58.png)

DD/Reverse-Repurchase-Operations/Reverse-Repo-Operations-by-pctracer/2021-07-14-Reverse-Repo-Update.md

@@ -0,0 +1,12 @@
+🔴Daily Reverse Repo Update 07/14: $859.975B🔴
+==============================================
+
+| Author       | Source       | 
+| :-------------: |:-------------:|
+|  [u/pctracer](https://www.reddit.com/user/pctracer/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/ok8ydt/daily_reverse_repo_update_0714_859975b/) | 
+
+---
+
+[Education 👨‍🏫 | Data 🔢](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22Education%20%F0%9F%91%A8%E2%80%8D%F0%9F%8F%AB%20%7C%20Data%20%F0%9F%94%A2%22&restrict_sr=1)
+
+![image](https://user-images.githubusercontent.com/82035192/126495390-c596ef24-bfd5-4909-bf57-38325a1878ec.png)

DD/Reverse-Repurchase-Operations/Reverse-Repo-Operations-by-pctracer/2021-07-15-Reverse-Repo-Update.md

@@ -0,0 +1,12 @@
+🔴Daily Reverse Repo Update 07/15: $776.261B🔴
+==============================================
+
+| Author       | Source       | 
+| :-------------: |:-------------:|
+|  [u/pctracer](https://www.reddit.com/user/pctracer/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/okxcsu/daily_reverse_repo_update_0715_776261b/) | 
+
+---
+
+[Education 👨‍🏫 | Data 🔢](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22Education%20%F0%9F%91%A8%E2%80%8D%F0%9F%8F%AB%20%7C%20Data%20%F0%9F%94%A2%22&restrict_sr=1)
+
+![image](https://user-images.githubusercontent.com/82035192/126495630-6213586c-1f1a-41aa-80eb-af8fce7aacda.png)

DD/Reverse-Repurchase-Operations/Reverse-Repo-Operations-by-pctracer/2021-07-16-Reverse-Repo-Update.md

@@ -0,0 +1,12 @@
+🔴Daily Reverse Repo Update 07/16: $817.566B🔴
+==============================================
+
+| Author       | Source       | 
+| :-------------: |:-------------:|
+|  [u/pctracer](https://www.reddit.com/user/pctracer/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/olldqj/daily_reverse_repo_update_0716_817566b/) | 
+
+---
+
+[Education 👨‍🏫 | Data 🔢](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22Education%20%F0%9F%91%A8%E2%80%8D%F0%9F%8F%AB%20%7C%20Data%20%F0%9F%94%A2%22&restrict_sr=1)
+
+![image](https://user-images.githubusercontent.com/82035192/126495787-9603a763-87ee-49de-9c45-5286196cf35b.png)

DD/Reverse-Repurchase-Operations/Reverse-Repo-Operations-by-pctracer/2021-07-19-Reverse-Repo-Update.md

@@ -0,0 +1,12 @@
+🔴Daily Reverse Repo Update 07/19: $860.468B🔴
+==============================================
+
+| Author       | Source       | 
+| :-------------: |:-------------:|
+|  [u/pctracer](https://www.reddit.com/user/pctracer/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/onik91/daily_reverse_repo_update_0719_860468b/) | 
+
+---
+
+[Education 👨‍🏫 | Data 🔢](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22Education%20%F0%9F%91%A8%E2%80%8D%F0%9F%8F%AB%20%7C%20Data%20%F0%9F%94%A2%22&restrict_sr=1)
+
+![image](https://user-images.githubusercontent.com/82035192/126496096-b3bb88c2-0427-4f91-9b3a-620b9516ef1e.png)

DD/Reverse-Repurchase-Operations/Reverse-Repo-Operations-by-pctracer/2021-07-20-Reverse-Repo-Update.md

@@ -0,0 +1,12 @@
+🔴Daily Reverse Repo Update 07/20: $848.102B🔴
+==============================================
+
+| Author       | Source       | 
+| :-------------: |:-------------:|
+|  [u/pctracer](https://www.reddit.com/user/pctracer/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/oo6i49/daily_reverse_repo_update_0720_848102b/) | 
+
+---
+
+[Education 👨‍🏫 | Data 🔢](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22Education%20%F0%9F%91%A8%E2%80%8D%F0%9F%8F%AB%20%7C%20Data%20%F0%9F%94%A2%22&restrict_sr=1)
+
+![image](https://user-images.githubusercontent.com/82035192/126496406-33187377-08f3-4577-8230-ee53b682c745.png)

DD/The-Chronicles-of-Short-and-Shorter-by-nydus-erdos/2021-07-08-Before-the-January-Sneeze-Part-I.md

@@ -0,0 +1,265 @@
+The Chronicles of Short & Shorter, Ep. 1: Before the January Sneeze
+===================================================================
+
+| Author       | Source       | 
+| :-------------: |:-------------:|
+|  [u/nydus_erdos](https://www.reddit.com/user/nydus_erdos/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/ogi75b/the_chronicles_of_short_shorter_ep_1_before_the/) | 
+
+---
+
+
+[DD 👨‍🔬](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22DD%20%F0%9F%91%A8%E2%80%8D%F0%9F%94%AC%22&restrict_sr=1)
+
+Disclaimer: Not financial advice. I've put a disproportionate amount of time into this for free, I clearly do not make good decisions, except for GME of course. This is at best, fancier napkin math.
+
+ALL POSTS BUILD ON EACH OTHER. IF THERE'S SOMETHING THAT SEEMS LIKE I GLOSS OVER HERE, YOU'LL LIKELY FIND IT (IN DETAIL) IN MY PREVIOUS POSTS: [Vol. 1](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nw8281/math_black_magic_vol_1_why_it_is_mathematically/), [Vol. 2](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nwy0oz/math_black_magic_vol_2_the_limit_does_not_exist/), [Vol. 3](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nya5ps/math_black_magic_vol_3_trillion_short_share_seance/), [Epilogue](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/odrnbv/math_black_magic_final_vol_epilogue/), [Microeconomic Primer](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/of1lz2/malleus_oeconomica_a_compressed_primer/)
+
+Main Sources: [Finnerty Paper](https://www.sec.gov/comments/s7-08-08/s70808-318.pdf), [Microeconomics 7th Edition by Jeffrey M. Perloff](http://dl.rasabourse.com/MIT.Mircroeconomics.Jeffrey%20M.%20Perloff%20-%20Microeconomics%20(2014,%20Pearson).pdf)
+
+--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
+
+A. Intro
+
+I thought for a long time for a concise way to describe this series. Unfortunately for you, I am ape-tarded and no matter how hard I tried, this kept repeating in my head. I apologize in advance.
+
+([Begin drum loop](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JgLcJFad90I))
+
+Nobody: Hey Nydus, can you tell us a bedtime story?
+
+Ok, heeerrre we go:
+
+Once upon a time not long ago
+
+When people went long and invested slow
+
+When laws were stern and justice stood
+
+And people were investin' like they ought to: good
+
+There was little Gabe who his broke bread
+
+With another Kenny boy and this is what he said:
+
+"Me, you and Steve are gonna make some G's
+
+Shorting inelastic curves and makin' FTDs"
+
+[![r/Superstonk - The Chronicles of Short & Shorter, Ep. 1: Before the January Sneeze](https://preview.redd.it/h3pm3f5yu1a71.png?width=960&format=png&auto=webp&s=38b8a860a22c6e65827337655485cbe3e2e299c8)](https://preview.redd.it/h3pm3f5yu1a71.png?width=960&format=png&auto=webp&s=38b8a860a22c6e65827337655485cbe3e2e299c8)
+
+I DID NOT MAKE THIS! IT WAS ORIGINALLY POSTED BY u/MisterFinishLine.! https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nii1s6/short_shorter/
+
+I DID NOT MAKE THIS MEME! CREDIT IN THE CAPTION!
+
+-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
+
+B. Assumptions
+
+*SHORTS HAVE NOT COVERED*
+
+Before I get into this one, read these excerpts from Finnerty's paper:
+
+> "Naked short selling and manipulating the price downward provide cash returns to the manipulator, who can withdraw cash from his clearing firm account as the shorted shares are marked to market at progressively lower prices. Through naked shorting, the manipulator realizes these returns without investing any cash (provided the market price never rises above the sale price)." (Pg. 34, par. 1)
+
+> "The clearing firm retains the cash proceeds from the short sale to secure the selling broker's delivery obligation. The clearing firm releases cash equal to the reduction in value of the shorted shares as the price of the shares declines (or demands additional cash margin if the share price rises)." (Pg. 34, footnote 51)
+
+Yes, you read that correctly. Naked short selling is pretty much FREE MONEY. On top of this, finance is OBSESSED with maximization. Finnerty mentions it frequently, and the calculus behind all this stuff is pretty maximization problems.
+
+What I'm saying is, we're familiar with Citadel and Co.'s natural inclination towards all consuming greed has been further sharpened by mathematical indoctrination. Ultimately, Kenny and Co. maximize their profit by never closing their FTDs. Why would they? Who was gonna check?
+
+There is also a mathematical basis:
+
+> "The manipulator maximizes his profit by...naked shorting *P(3)* close to zero. The manipulator should sell short *A/(3B)* shares at time 1 resulting in *P(1) = 2A/3*...He should sell short an additional *A/(3B)* shares at time 2...The manipulator drives *P(3)* close to zero by adjusting the short position to *L/B* shares. If *L > 2A/3*, the manipulator will increase his short position; otherwise, he will decrease it."(Pg. 55, par. 1)
+
+The only scenario where they could've reduced their position would conflict with our known Janurary SI. This also makes the calculations much more simple, as I don't have to worry about subtracting shares covered.
+
+Along with this, Finnerty also describes a situation that might sound familiar:
+
+> "...suppose the manipulator realizes at time 2 that the firm's share price the next period will be H, rather than L as originally expected, say, due to favorable developments in the firm's business. Suppose further that the securities regulators or the clearing house require all securities dealers to clear up all fails to deliver. The manipulator would face potentially large losses on his short sales. By short selling an additional 2A/(3B) shares at time 2, he can drive the share price close to zero" (Pg. 56, par. 3)
+
+The quantity *2A/3B* is double the amount the manipulator usually sells at time 2, which indicates to me that they have to increase the magnitude of their attack to compensate. Past the Sneeze, I don't see how they would keep up such aggressive price suppression without increasing their position, especially when it was undeniable that this was a high value company.
+
+*MONOPOLY MARKET*
+
+Citadel and Co.'s market marking privileges have allowed them to form a monopoly on GME shares. They are the only suppliers. They have full direct control of quantity of output and indirect control over price. Assuming monopoly market simplifies calculations in that we do not have to consider actions from other players.
+
+*INELASTIC DEMAND CURVE*
+
+Basically, this means that the quantity demanded does not change much in response to a change in price and demand will at least stay constant. Throughout my calculations, only the inelastic value consistently provided reasonable answers. This also makes sense as we know even before the Sneeze there were diamond hands who knew the ~~value~~ deep fucking value of the company. From what I got, it appears that the only time apes had an elastic demand curve was when they turned off the buy button.
+
+*NO SUPPLY CURVE, ONLY DEMAND*
+
+Biggest thing I discovered is that short selling in general is that it defies the very law of supply. Instead of a producer supplying less as the price gets lower, naked short sellers supply more as the price gets lower. They can afford to since, until recently, naked short selling had zero cost.
+
+On top of this, monopolies do not have supply curves. This lack of a supply curve makes a monopoly's output decision dependent on the shapes of its marginal cost curve and the market demand curve.
+
+Because those reasons, I assume that price behavior over time is highly related to market demand, in that the elasticity (normalized/unitless) from the Price vs.Time charts is analogous to the elasticity on the market demand curve (Price vs. Quantity)
+
+[![r/Superstonk - The Chronicles of Short & Shorter, Ep. 1: Before the January Sneeze](https://preview.redd.it/dhddnm6a32a71.png?width=612&format=png&auto=webp&s=0cea57adf59d86cc879d0a35d92b687439e97174)](https://preview.redd.it/dhddnm6a32a71.png?width=612&format=png&auto=webp&s=0cea57adf59d86cc879d0a35d92b687439e97174)
+
+Elasticity Assumption
+
+*DOUBLE-HALF CONJECTURE*
+
+The paper lays out the general strategy of a manipulator who is aggressively naked shorting a stock. Basically, the manipulator naked shorts a certain amount of shares based on a formula taking into account current market price, various probabilities, etc, etc. By the end of the paper, Finnerty proves mathematically that the manipulator must naked short at least as many shares as the firm has outstanding in order to short a companies price close to zero, not zero!. Side note, the reason its not zero is because:
+
+> "The manipulated price could be less than a penny if market convention allows quotations in a fraction of a cent, as for example the OTCBB market does" (Pg. 11, footnote 21)
+
+Anyway, the point is this strategy of shorting usually leaves a pattern. The first attack drops the price by about one-third (~33%), the second cuts that price in half (~50%) and the third kicks it down close to zero. Around the time the price is cut in half the manipulator has naked shorted the same amount of shares outstanding.
+
+> "If *L > A/3*, the manipulator will naked short more shares than the firm has outstanding. The share price is *P(2) = A/3*, which is half what it was at time 1."
+
+> "...if *L = A/3*, then the manipulator would naked short the same number of shares the firm has outstanding, doubling the float. He would halve the short position at time 3 to *A/(3B)*, restoring it to what it was at time 1. The strategic fail substantially decreases at the same time the share price declines because the intrinsic value of the shares decreases."
+
+Going on this I assume that every time the price is approximately cut in half, the naked short seller has doubled the shares in existence.
+
+*PROFIT STRATEGY*
+
+They started short selling on the inelastic part of the demand curve. Normally, a monopoly wants to work on the elastic part of the demand curve. However, if you naked short sell an elastic curve the price will drop quicker with less shares shorted. I think its possible that Short, Shorter & Co. figured they could maximize profit by naked short selling on an inelastic demand curve, as they could short more shares over time since it takes more short shares to affect an inelastic demand curve.
+
+-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
+
+C. Duration & Timeline
+
+Einstein said the only infinite things are the universe and human stupidity. Were he alive today I'd ask him if he could human greed as well. To truly grasp how greedy, I'll run you through my estimation of the total duration of their short postion until the Sneeze.
+
+From the price action, it looks Short, Shorter & Co. opened their short position approximately December 2015, going until December 2020 is:
+
+-   5 calendar years
+
+-   3.45 trading years
+
+-   868 trading days
+
+(Note: there about 252 trading days in a year. Almost exactly 69 percent (lol) of a calendar year)
+
+I wanted to start with general data, so I eyeballed the Google chart of GME and these immediately stood out to me. We will be looking at the following dates (all approximate!):
+
+-   Time 0, October 30 2015. Initial conditions, price was approximately $46.14
+
+-   Time 1, July 29, 2016. Price dropped approximately 33% from about $46.14 and leveled out around $30.76
+
+-   Time 2, April 6, 2018. Price dropped by approximately 50 percent from $30.76 and leveled out around $15.38
+
+-   Time 3, Aug. 9 2019. Price dropped 75 percent from approximately $15.38 and leveled out around $3.85
+
+[![r/Superstonk - The Chronicles of Short & Shorter, Ep. 1: Before the January Sneeze](https://preview.redd.it/jenb5en592a71.png?width=896&format=png&auto=webp&s=da1d4898f8ee2c771d437d167bc12ad954e362ff)](https://preview.redd.it/jenb5en592a71.png?width=896&format=png&auto=webp&s=da1d4898f8ee2c771d437d167bc12ad954e362ff)
+
+Price Chart
+
+-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
+
+D. Equations and Variables
+
+*FINNERTY FORMULAS*
+
+These were closely examined in previous posts.
+
+[![r/Superstonk - The Chronicles of Short & Shorter, Ep. 1: Before the January Sneeze](https://preview.redd.it/w3fbaf2962a71.png?width=875&format=png&auto=webp&s=836d4bf51d27178da145dbcd418774628918a6b6)](https://preview.redd.it/w3fbaf2962a71.png?width=875&format=png&auto=webp&s=836d4bf51d27178da145dbcd418774628918a6b6)
+
+Quantity Shorted
+
+*HOW IS B DETERMINED?*
+
+Also examined in previous posts.
+
+[![r/Superstonk - The Chronicles of Short & Shorter, Ep. 1: Before the January Sneeze](https://preview.redd.it/p5a216lr62a71.png?width=863&format=png&auto=webp&s=bf11d3228ae16f8e4f8e34bcc3fedf78c471b5e1)](https://preview.redd.it/p5a216lr62a71.png?width=863&format=png&auto=webp&s=bf11d3228ae16f8e4f8e34bcc3fedf78c471b5e1)
+
+Elasticity
+
+*HOW IS A DETERMINED*
+
+[![r/Superstonk - The Chronicles of Short & Shorter, Ep. 1: Before the January Sneeze](https://preview.redd.it/74xghtf972a71.png?width=877&format=png&auto=webp&s=d9a72646f9e7b0d7800d73cc584f52b9aa2dec5e)](https://preview.redd.it/74xghtf972a71.png?width=877&format=png&auto=webp&s=d9a72646f9e7b0d7800d73cc584f52b9aa2dec5e)
+
+Variable A
+
+*HOW IS L DETERMINED*
+
+[![r/Superstonk - The Chronicles of Short & Shorter, Ep. 1: Before the January Sneeze](https://preview.redd.it/66ockp4n72a71.png?width=885&format=png&auto=webp&s=dc91a802870b1c531ae45c65e78061f1c782edfe)](https://preview.redd.it/66ockp4n72a71.png?width=885&format=png&auto=webp&s=dc91a802870b1c531ae45c65e78061f1c782edfe)
+
+Variable L
+
+*HOW H IS DETERMINED*
+
+[![r/Superstonk - The Chronicles of Short & Shorter, Ep. 1: Before the January Sneeze](https://preview.redd.it/wg1yccku72a71.png?width=899&format=png&auto=webp&s=f51208f3bcb63d6c3093677ebedf4d6c6b3c9218)](https://preview.redd.it/wg1yccku72a71.png?width=899&format=png&auto=webp&s=f51208f3bcb63d6c3093677ebedf4d6c6b3c9218)
+
+Variable H
+
+-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
+
+E. Results
+
+*LOW ESTIMATE*
+
+(In millions of shares; negative numbers imply that they decreased their position)
+
+Chart 1.
+
+| Time | Quantity Shorted (Q) |
+| --- | --- |
+| 1 | 51.788 |
+| 2 | 51.793 |
+| 3 | -18.912 |
+
+Chart 2.
+
+| Total Q at Time 2 | 103.58 |
+| --- | --- |
+| SI at Time 2 | 147% |
+| Total Q at Time 3 | 84.67 |
+| SI at Time 3 | 120% |
+
+*HIGH ESTIMATE*
+
+Chart 3.
+
+| Time | Quantity Shorted (Q) |
+| --- | --- |
+| 1 | 51.788 |
+| 2 | 51.793 |
+| 3 | 122.49 |
+
+Chart 4.
+
+| Total Q at Time 2 | 103.58 |
+| --- | --- |
+| SI at Time 2 | 147% |
+| Total Q at Time 3 | 226.07 |
+| SI at Time 3 | 320% |
+
+*AVERAGE OF H AND L*
+
+Chart 5.
+
+| Time | Quantity Shorted (Q) |
+| --- | --- |
+| 1 | 51.788 |
+| 2 | 51.793 |
+| 3 | 51.788 |
+
+Chart 6.
+
+| Total Q at Time 2 | 103.58 |
+| --- | --- |
+| SI at Time 2 | 147% |
+| Total Q at Time 3 | 155.37 |
+| SI at Time 3 | 220% |
+
+F. Conclusion
+
+Notice how that by time 2, when the price halves they had shorted more shares than shares outstanding.
+
+Additionally, the best estimate we have of pre-Sneeze SI is from the Robinhood filing that lists ~225%. The average value was consistent with that.
+
+I used this timeframe of estimates as a calibration of sorts and the model seems to hold here.
+
+G. Next Post
+
+I'll use the method described here to estimate how many shares were shorted during the Sneeze. The following post will cover after the Sneeze up to mid April 2021
+
+H. TL;DR
+
+[![r/Superstonk - The Chronicles of Short & Shorter, Ep. 1: Before the January Sneeze](https://preview.redd.it/kzvj5fxzd2a71.png?width=942&format=png&auto=webp&s=919c30110dbfbc4d746b16c59ed5ae95f5e0d4a4)](https://preview.redd.it/kzvj5fxzd2a71.png?width=942&format=png&auto=webp&s=919c30110dbfbc4d746b16c59ed5ae95f5e0d4a4)
+
+I DID NOT MAKE THIS! ORIGINAL MEME POSTED BY u/Archisaurus, https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/oev08e/this_is_my_brain_going_through_the_due_diligence/
+
+I DID NOT MAKE THIS MEME TEMPLATE! CREDIT IN THE CAPTION!

DD/The-Chronicles-of-Short-and-Shorter-by-nydus-erdos/2021-07-09-During-the-January-Sneeze-Part-II.md

@@ -0,0 +1,227 @@
+The Chronicles Of Short & Shorter, Ep. 2: During the January Sneeze
+===================================================================
+
+| Author       | Source       | 
+| :-------------: |:-------------:|
+|  [u/nydus_erdos](https://www.reddit.com/user/nydus_erdos/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/oh8fcz/the_chronicles_of_short_shorter_ep_2_during_the/) | 
+
+---
+
+
+[DD 👨‍🔬](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22DD%20%F0%9F%91%A8%E2%80%8D%F0%9F%94%AC%22&restrict_sr=1)
+
+Disclaimer: Not financial advice. I've put a disproportionate amount of time into this for free, I clearly do not make good decisions. Though I continually strive to improve this model it is, at best, just fancier napkin math.
+
+--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
+
+Quick Descriptions of my Previous Posts, if something doesn't make sense its probably in here:
+
+[Math Black Magic, Vol. 1: Why It Is Mathematically Impossible for Hedgies To Unfuk Themselves](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nw8281/math_black_magic_vol_1_why_it_is_mathematically/)
+
+-   If you only read one post, read this one
+
+-   TL;DR => Finance professor John Finnerty mathematically proves that it's impossible to short a stock to zero without naked shorting at least as many shares as there are outstanding, doubling the float in the process.
+
+[Math Black Magic, Vol 2: The Limit Does Not Exist!](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nwy0oz/math_black_magic_vol_2_the_limit_does_not_exist/)
+
+-   This one touches on the price pattern of the short attacks
+
+-   TL;DR => At this point, the number of shares needed to short $GME to zero does not mathematically exist.
+
+[Math Black Magic, Vol. 3: Trillion Short Share Seance](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nya5ps/math_black_magic_vol_3_trillion_short_share_seance/)
+
+-   TL;DR => I try to make estimates of shares shorted based on the known equations and data at that time. I stand by the methods, but they needed more refinement. Which leads to the following volume...
+
+[Math Black Magic, Final Vol: Epilogue](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/odrnbv/math_black_magic_final_vol_epilogue/)
+
+-   TL;DR => I made this post as a sort of correction. I went through the model again and tightened it up and got an answer I feel much more confident in
+
+[Malleus Oeconomica: A Compressed Primer](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/of1lz2/malleus_oeconomica_a_compressed_primer/)
+
+-   In Short & Shorter, I use several economic concepts and equations that need a little explaining first.
+
+-   TL;DR => This is already a compressed post. I can't really put it any simpler than I do in the post.
+
+[The Chronicles of Short & Shorter, Ep. 1: During the January Sneeze](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/ogi75b/the_chronicles_of_short_shorter_ep_1_before_the/)
+
+-   This is the first step of the process from which I got my revised shares shorted count. I try to dissect their shorting strategy and quantity shorted from 2015 to before the January Sneeze.
+
+-   This post could really use some love as it got downvoted to oblivion by shills.
+
+-   TL;DR => scroll to bottom of this post
+
+-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
+
+A. Intro
+
+This is still stuck in my head from the last post. Once again very sorry:
+
+([Begin drum loop](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JgLcJFad90I))
+
+Absolutely nobody: Hey Nydus, can you tell us a bedtime story?
+
+Ok, heeerrre we go:
+
+Once upon a time not long ago
+
+When people went long and invested slow
+
+When laws were stern and justice stood
+
+And people were investin' like they ought to: good
+
+There was little Gabe who broke his bread
+
+With another Kenny boy and this is what he said:
+
+"Me, you and Steve are gonna make some G's
+
+Shorting inelastic curves and makin' FTDs"
+
+[![r/Superstonk - The Chronicles Of Short & Shorter, Ep. 2: During the January Sneeze](https://preview.redd.it/rlpmt8sv5aa71.png?width=960&format=png&auto=webp&s=a65ee9fcfc3acc396a6d44fa3158faa631903807)](https://preview.redd.it/rlpmt8sv5aa71.png?width=960&format=png&auto=webp&s=a65ee9fcfc3acc396a6d44fa3158faa631903807)
+
+I DID NOT MAKE THIS! IT WAS ORIGINALLY POSTED BY u/MisterFinishLine.! https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nii1s6/short_shorter/
+
+-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
+
+B. Timeframe
+
+-   (Magenta circles denote time points)
+
+-   Time 0 - Squeeze peaked Jan. 27; P(0) = $357.51
+
+-   Buy Button turned off Jan. 28
+
+-   Time 1 - Feb 1 (3 trading days from time 0); P(1) = $214.51
+
+-   Time 2 - Feb 3 (5 trading days from time 0); P(2) = $85.80
+
+-   Time 3 - Feb 4 (6 trading days from time 0); P(3) = $51.48
+
+-   On approximately Feb. 10 (10 days from time 0) price settled out at ~$45
+
+[![r/Superstonk - The Chronicles Of Short & Shorter, Ep. 2: During the January Sneeze](https://preview.redd.it/hx80j4xz5aa71.png?width=1085&format=png&auto=webp&s=7c8f2959588bd59a9430a81f24969f41a34bbe28)](https://preview.redd.it/hx80j4xz5aa71.png?width=1085&format=png&auto=webp&s=7c8f2959588bd59a9430a81f24969f41a34bbe28)
+
+Time Frame
+
+-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
+
+C. Additional Assumptions
+
+The full list of my assumptions can be found in Ep. 1. See links at top of post.
+
+*SHORT ATTACK MAGNITUDE IS ALWAYS MAXIMUM*
+
+In the last post, I mentioned an excerpt from Finnerty's paper, which should sound familiar:
+
+> "...suppose the manipulator realizes at time 2 that the firm's share price the next period will be *H*, rather than *L* as originally expected, say, due to favorable developments in the firm's business. Suppose further that the securities regulators or the clearing house require all securities dealers to clear up all fails to deliver. The manipulator would face potentially large losses on his short sales. By short selling an additional *2A/(3B)* shares at time 2, he can drive the share price close to zero." (Pg. 56, par. 3)
+
+The quantity *2A/3B* is double the amount the manipulator usually sells at time 2, which indicates to me that they have to increase the magnitude of their short attacks to compensate for the change to a higher value. I will not be using the quantity strategy described above as its mathematical parameters are different, but the I feel the circumstantial similarity provides reasonable basis to assume that during and after the Sneeze, they were always shorting the maximum amount of shares.
+
+With all this in mind, and the fact that GME is a *H* company, I will no longer calculate/use variable *L*.
+
+*ELASTIC DEMAND CURVE*
+
+This assumptions ONLY applies to during the Sneeze as a result of them turning off the buy button. Using the elastic coefficient resulted in the lowest reasonable estimates as well. This makes sense as they can manipulate an elastic demand curve with less shares.
+
+-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
+
+D. Price Pattern
+
+With buy pressure pretty much neutralized. Its hard for me to judge the how much each contributed to price drop. I tried to identify if there were any clear trends. The first attack dropped price by 40 percent (normally it drops 33 percent), the second by 60 percent (normally it drops 50 percent) and the third by 40 percent (normally takes price close to zero). Not too much deviation, in fact, I expected more, but I assume that letting us buy limited amounts of shares on the way down stiffened out demand curve a little to maximize their profit.
+
+-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
+
+E. Equations & Variables
+
+FINNERTY FORMULAS
+
+[![r/Superstonk - The Chronicles Of Short & Shorter, Ep. 2: During the January Sneeze](https://preview.redd.it/639fdtm76aa71.png?width=919&format=png&auto=webp&s=aaef42f88d1fa548228c36058666c33e0cc43d63)](https://preview.redd.it/639fdtm76aa71.png?width=919&format=png&auto=webp&s=aaef42f88d1fa548228c36058666c33e0cc43d63)
+
+Quantity Shorted
+
+VARIABLE *B*
+
+[![r/Superstonk - The Chronicles Of Short & Shorter, Ep. 2: During the January Sneeze](https://preview.redd.it/wsffrq9d6aa71.png?width=977&format=png&auto=webp&s=41b1023387afaef03ffa27804d227684807f2e83)](https://preview.redd.it/wsffrq9d6aa71.png?width=977&format=png&auto=webp&s=41b1023387afaef03ffa27804d227684807f2e83)
+
+Elasticity
+
+[![r/Superstonk - The Chronicles Of Short & Shorter, Ep. 2: During the January Sneeze](https://preview.redd.it/qzp3pn2k6aa71.png?width=851&format=png&auto=webp&s=7351cf0e65d49b0a9f5dbf9f1e4c4b81fe6b29aa)](https://preview.redd.it/qzp3pn2k6aa71.png?width=851&format=png&auto=webp&s=7351cf0e65d49b0a9f5dbf9f1e4c4b81fe6b29aa)
+
+Variable B
+
+VARIABLE *A*
+
+[![r/Superstonk - The Chronicles Of Short & Shorter, Ep. 2: During the January Sneeze](https://preview.redd.it/lxb615ps6aa71.png?width=980&format=png&auto=webp&s=20b127a5820b6fc1a3dc5f31c05997bb30a01cc8)](https://preview.redd.it/lxb615ps6aa71.png?width=980&format=png&auto=webp&s=20b127a5820b6fc1a3dc5f31c05997bb30a01cc8)
+
+Variable A
+
+VARIABLE *H*
+
+[![r/Superstonk - The Chronicles Of Short & Shorter, Ep. 2: During the January Sneeze](https://preview.redd.it/weweuttv6aa71.png?width=949&format=png&auto=webp&s=02d60421b9608da3c743857227e8943251a5f8b2)](https://preview.redd.it/weweuttv6aa71.png?width=949&format=png&auto=webp&s=02d60421b9608da3c743857227e8943251a5f8b2)
+
+Variable H
+
+-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
+
+F. Results
+
+(Share counts in millions)
+
+Chart 1: Shares Shorted During Sneeze
+
+| Time (t) | Quantity Shorted |
+
+| --- | --- |
+
+| Time 1 | 62.642 |
+
+| Time 2 | 62.648 |
+
+| Time 3 | 133.35 |
+
+Chart 2: Totals from During Sneeze ONLY
+
+| Total Shorted Shares at Time 2 | 125.29 |
+
+| --- | --- |
+
+| SI at Time 2 | 177% |
+
+| Total Shorted Shares at Time 3 | 258.64 |
+
+| SI at Time 3 | 366% |
+
+Chart 3: Cumulative Counts (Pre-Sneeze + During Sneeze)
+
+| Shares Shorted from Pre-Sneeze | 155.37 |
+
+| --- | --- |
+
+| Pre-Sneeze SI | 220% |
+
+| Cumulative Shorted Shares at this Point | 414.01 |
+
+| Cumulative SI at this Point | 586% |
+
+-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
+
+G. Conclusions
+
+Notice how that by time 2, when the price halves they had shorted more shares than shares outstanding and by the end of time 3 they have shorted about the same amount of shares they had shorted Pre-Sneeze.
+
+The more I extrapolate I assume my margin of error grows, but I still feel confident in these answers. I believe this is where reached a point that they were no longer able to drop us back down to $40. I feel like my hypotheses don't fully explain why though. Input is appreciated.
+
+-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
+
+H. Next Post
+
+We'll look at the time period after the January Sneeze to approximately mid-April 2021
+
+-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
+
+I. TL;DR
+
+[![r/Superstonk - The Chronicles Of Short & Shorter, Ep. 2: During the January Sneeze](https://preview.redd.it/gnbf87om5aa71.png?width=942&format=png&auto=webp&s=8908903c227c14ef950e94142d9d65589ac21ca0)](https://preview.redd.it/gnbf87om5aa71.png?width=942&format=png&auto=webp&s=8908903c227c14ef950e94142d9d65589ac21ca0)
+
+I DID NOT MAKE THIS! ORIGINAL MEME POSTED BY u/Archisaurus, https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/oev08e/this_is_my_brain_going_through_the_due_diligence/

DD/The-Ultimate-DD-Guide-to-the-Moon-by-sydneyfriendlycub/2021-05-01-Ultimate-DD-Guide-Part-III.md

@@ -0,0 +1,548 @@
+[3/3] The Ultimate DD guide to the moon!!. Crazy Melon
+======================================================
+
+| Author       | Source       | 
+| :-------------: |:-------------:|
+|  [u/sydneyfriendlycub](https://www.reddit.com/user/sydneyfriendlycub/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/comments/n2hjnk/33_the_ultimate_dd_guide_to_the_moon_crazy_melon/) | 
+
+---
+
+[🔬 DD 📊](https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/search?q=flair_name%3A%22%F0%9F%94%AC%20DD%20%F0%9F%93%8A%22&restrict_sr=1)
+
+THIS IS FOR YOU MY APES!! None of this is financial advice. I'm a retarded ape playing with crayons and keys.
+
+This message should reach every ape to help!
+
+CONTENTS:
+
+[PART 1](https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/comments/n2hgxq/13_the_ultimate_dd_guide_to_the_moon_crazy_melon/)
+
+-   US DOLLAR BACKING
+
+-   OVERVIEW OF KENNY'S/SHITADEL'S FUCKERY EXPOSED!
+
+-   HOW IS KENNY WASHING THE MONEY?
+
+-   TRUST BONDS: The basket of bonds INFITINE MONEY GLITCH!!!
+
+-   BIG BANKS ARE HOLDINGS COMPANIES???? WHAT IS THAT?
+
+[PART 2](https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/comments/n2hhhn/23_the_ultimate_dd_guide_to_the_moon_crazy_melon/)
+
+-   HOW AND WHY TO BANKRUPT COMPANIES
+
+-   QUICK RECAP MIXING GME IN:
+
+-   THE MASSIVE REAL ESTATE SCAM!
+
+-   KENNY SCAMMING AROUND THE WORLD
+
+-   WHAT HAPPENS AFTER THE COMPANY GOES BANKRUPT??
+
+-   THE PANDEMIC STIMULUS: The beginning of the end of Kenny
+
+-   KENNY'S FUCK UP!!
+
+PART 3
+
+-   THE ENDGAME: INEVITABLE! NO FUD
+
+-   SUMMARY
+
+-   TL;DR1:
+
+-   BURRY CONCERN: HYPERINFLATION
+
+-   LIBOR to SOFR
+
+-   TL;DR2 :
+
+---------------------------------------- CONTINUE!!
+
+PART 3
+
+---------------------------------------
+
+NEW!!!!
+
+KENNY KENNY KENNETH: A little bit of history..
+
+"Kenny, Kenny.... Let's all learn a little about Kenny past. Kenneth Cordele Griffin was born October 15, 1968. For a majority of his life he attended Boca Raton Community High School. It was a public school, where he was the head of the finance club... No, actually he was president of Math Club.
+
+His investing career actually was initiated at the Cabot House as an undergraduate at Haaaaarvard. He must have learned to pay off the right people as he was able to get a satellite dish placed on the roof. His initial ride was with convertible bonds, with was powered from his late grandma to the tune of 265 K. Not a bad chunk of change to begin your investing career. So where did Ken break out & how did he do it? Well no other way than to short stock and have the stock market crash of '87.
+
+Kenny pushin' them shorts this whole time. It's too cold to be wearin' shorts in those Chicago winters. Da' Frostbite appears to be setting in."
+
+<https://www.chicagomag.com/Chicago-Magazine/June-2011/The-File-on-Citadels-Ken-Griffin/>
+
+FOOL ME ONCE..It's on me! FOOL ME TWICE..Really? *Courtesy of that amazing silverback, you know who!*
+
+---------------------------------------
+
+THE ENDGAME: INEVITABLE! NO FUD
+
+Kenny now is trapped. Now we known his game!!
+
+We also know he IS SHORTING THE the 0.01%, the government and the economy!!!
+
+Why is Kenny want to do all this?
+
+THIS IS VERY IMPORTANT!!!
+
+He wants to be THE KING!! To big to be touched!
+
+He always wanted to be a bank and be part of the 0.01%
+
+Putting my Tin Hat on this might sound crazy but.... It does align with Kenny goals!
+
+Why to move to texas?
+
+a) Because in texas he can apply for a banking license and become a bank (state banks have lot less regulations than federal banks)
+
+b) scoop up all the cheap commercial real estate
+
+c) becomes a massive player in the banking environment
+
+WHY DOES KENNY WANTS TO BE A BANK SO BADLY?
+
+A state bank is lot less regulated than a federal bank.
+
+A BANK IS THE ONLY PIECE MISSING IN KENNY PUZZLE
+
+This way he will eliminate the middle man, the bank does everything for his fuckery.
+
+Having a bank means, he will be the one setting the price of the appraisals, also giving the loans, then also liquidating the asset and auctioning controlling the prices to buy everything at the price he wants.
+
+Being able to always inflate the appraisals and pocket the difference everytime more and more!
+
+And buying the real estate dirt cheap always! Perfect set up!
+
+Ohhhh the banks game!!!
+
+The 0.01% didn't let him in because he's too greedy and try to absorb everything, also he wasn't born into the 0.01%.** he doesn't have the surname or the generous gramma.
+
+So then he said fuk it! I'm going to be the king and bigger than anybody!!
+
+Ambition much Kenny?
+
+Sorry Kenny!
+
+You can't buy your way into the 0.01% club, you need to born with the surname and Griffin isn't cutting it.
+
+Kenny no likey 0.01 percento nada!
+
+He's been issuing years after years of those bad bad useless trust bonds and everyone buys them thinking are solid gold from Shitadel!
+
+And pocketing so much real estate dirt cheap with all this fuckery!
+
+HOW THE SEC CAN CATCH HIM?
+
+Follow the transactions!!
+
+Open those bonds full of naked shares that's are imaginary!!
+
+Check on the Treasury (bills, notes and bonds) transactions, how many they have, how many they had and touch Kenny hands.
+
+Also check where the money they used for Treasuries come from!
+
+Why are they OVER SHORTING business?
+
+Open your eyes and realize that they are targeting business that are real estate heavy for a reason!!
+
+There is clear market manipulation CLEAR
+
+There is clear MEDIA manipulation, hundreds of examples
+
+Go and check the loan contracts and compare the loan values of appraisal given versus the real values of the properties!
+
+Follow the money and follow the real estate.
+
+Follow companies like this IOR (clearly the worse website I've seen). Only takes 1 minute to see this website to know this is a scam! And this company is managing a 51M market cap and can't even make a half decent website? PLEASE!!!
+
+How dumb they think we are seriously!!
+
+<https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/IOR>
+
+<http://www.incomeopp-realty.com/management.html>
+
+I 5 year old can make a better website than that!!
+
+-------------
+
+How's is the 0.01% is fighting back??
+
+Creating a bubble too big to handle in GME so they can breaks the Citadel (Kenny and friends) and margin call them before the Federal Reserve implodes!!!
+
+or exposing his scam and making rules and also by forcing him to cover the shorts!! it's all a lie and fake at the end of the day!
+
+They need to come up with firewalls (801/002 and others) and ways to protect all the banks and members of the DTCC that are not part of the Shitadel and friends scam!! That's why all those rules have been coming in place.
+
+Once everything is ready Shitadel and friends are gonna be forced to cover their shorts and naked shorts everywhere. (The bubble is so big that they are gonna get margin called, my floor is $15 million btw).
+
+Kenny will have to cover institutional shorts, retail shorts, ETFs as well as those garbage trust bonds full of empty shells. Remember that Kenny need to return those borrowed naked IOUs and put a real share in every empty shell on peoples accounts and bonds!! But there is more! Don't forget the bets!
+
+**Forgot about the FTD plus all the puts accumulated for years that expire 1/16, 4/16 (yes DFV day!!) and 7/17!!?? Thanks for the correction btw!!😍
+
+That's another massive fukery scam going on and is HUGE! Federal Bank and friends need to break Citadel before Citadel breaks them, the economy and the government by scamming everyone and bankrupting companies!!
+
+----------------------------
+
+**NEW GOOOD! EDIT 2: Clues Clues Clues.......
+
+A totally jacket MAGNIFICENT specimen of a APE dropped this amazing little jewel on the comment!!!
+
+Fuuuuuuuuuukkkk.
+
+This is your chance to DIG AND DIG
+
+I'm a bit tired but you definitely can do your own post and DD about anything or all of this!!
+
+"-  Ashcraft, Adam B. and Gooriah, Kunal and Kermani, Amir, Does Skin‐in‐the‐Game Affect Security Performance? (March 1, 2017). Available at SSRN: [https://ssrn.com/abstract=2437574 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2437574](https://ssrn.com/abstract=2437574%C2%A0or%C2%A0http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2437574)
+
+-   Key paper: Griffin, John M. and Priest, Alex, Is COVID Revealing a CMBS Virus? (August 10, 2020). Available at SSRN: [https://ssrn.com/abstract=3671162 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3671162](https://ssrn.com/abstract=3671162%C2%A0or%C2%A0http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3671162)
+
+-   Shao, Ruoyu, Examination of Potential Misrepresentation in CMBS (June 11, 2015). Available at SSRN: [https://ssrn.com/abstract=2727038 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2727038](https://ssrn.com/abstract=2727038%C2%A0or%C2%A0http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2727038)
+
+-   Wong, Maisy, CMBS and Conflicts of Interest: Evidence from a Natural Experiment on Servicer Ownership (May 12, 2015). The Wharton School Research Paper No. 82, Jacobs Levy Equity Management Center for Quantitative Financial Research Paper, Available at SSRN: [https://ssrn.com/abstract=2605538 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2605538](https://ssrn.com/abstract=2605538%C2%A0or%C2%A0http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2605538) - CMBS and the Fed...is there a crisis brewing in the office? <https://www.ftserussell.com/research/cmbs-and-fedis-there-crisis-brewing-office>
+
+-   There are honestly maybe 6 more papers but I wanted to distill to these.  Sites: 
+
+-   The article that led me to every CMBS paper and ETF paper written: <https://theintercept.com/2021/04/20/wall-street-cmbs-dollar-general-ladder-capital/>
+
+-   CMBS Disputes on the Horizon? - <https://www.jdsupra.com/legalnews/cmbs-disputes-on-the-horizon-april-2021-9296023/>
+
+-   Increases in forbearance agreements: <https://www.alston.com/en/insights/publications/2020/04/forbearance-agreements-in-the-age-of-covid-19/>
+
+-   Issuance Activity and Interconnectedness in the CMBS Market - <https://www.sec.gov/files/DERA_WP_Knyazeva-Lin-Park_IssuanceActivityInterconnectednessCMBS%20.pdf>
+
+-   Trepp, a group that measures CMBS delinquency rates, suddenly had a change of tone last year in their delinquency reporting and openly suggested in their April 2020 report that "it's time to throw the old way of looking at the data out the window". They've reported economically health numbers since then.
+
+-   Say what you will about the Kroll Bond Agency's shenanigans, but they had an interesting report in Jan '21.: [https://www.kbra.com/documents/report/43448/cmbs-trend-watch-december-2020"](https://www.kbra.com/documents/report/43448/cmbs-trend-watch-december-2020%E2%80%9D)
+
+BOOM!!
+
+Go NUTS APES!!!
+
+Grab a shovel and start digging!!!! Someone has to do it, can be you!!
+
+Another piece to keep digging!!
+
+<https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/n2ov32/investigation_weekend_citadel_has_been_working/?utm_source=share&amp;amp;utm_medium=ios_app&amp;amp;utm_name=iossmf>
+
+END OF THE EDIT2:
+
+------------------------------------------------------
+
+SUMMARY
+
+Holy fuc%#ing shit!!!
+
+Apes are the last line of defense!!!!! PROTECT THE ECONOMY FROM PREDATOR KENNY G!!!
+
+Now remember, when was the last time Uncle Sam didn't get his money? I can't remember.. Because Uncle Sam always gets his money and he's coming for Kenny and our tendies!!
+
+All of them!! This is Citadel (Kenny and friends) vs the DTCC, Federal Reserve and the banks and the PLANET OF THE APEEEEEES!!
+
+Im seriously JACKED TO THE TITS!!
+
+I wouldn't be surprised if Kenny is in the deep with something around 2000%+ SI no joke.
+
+Remember Trump calling Ken out in his speech? Kenny is hiding all his money somewhere. Now we know where: art, real estate, and more. Whose money? *The Federal Reserve and retail's money!* So far he's been kicking the cans [with fukery like this](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/mzgtvx/a_method_for_hiding_ftds_that_uses_the_109mil/).
+
+Kenny and Citadel have liquidity to fight for now, but the machine stopped printing. Now it's just matter of time, and some MELON just unfolded the entire fuckery!
+
+As an aside/addendum to all this...but for the sake of not making this long post even longer...
+
+Im making post 2 on GME subs.
+
+Next part will talk about something as important that is change from LIBOR to SOFR as well as *The Big Short's* Michael Burry's warnings on hyperinflation.
+
+This will be a part of the world history, in the end I think the economy will be alright thanks to ape's stimulation, dont be scared ([READ PART 2](https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/comments/n286u2/22_the_ultimate_dd_guide_to_the_moon_crazy_melon/)).
+
+----------------------------
+
+TL;DR 1: Kenny is in big trouble for trying to scam the big big money (bigger money than Bezos, Gates and Musk combined) and everyone else to own the banks/Federal Reserve. Machine no printing for him anymore so he's been drained and his game uncovered. Apes need to be patient and keep BUYING AND HOLDING!!! The end is near.
+
+----------------------------------
+
+BURRY CONCERN: HYPERINFLATION
+
+This is quite a handful matter to talk about, I encourage you to do your own research cuz i might be wrong or this might be incomplete.
+
+But im gonna give it a go! FOR YOU MY AMAZING APES!
+
+Dr Michael Burry (we all remember him for predicting the 2008 housing market collapse and the big short (Christian bale - Batman!!))
+
+He has been warning us for a while about a highly probably hyperinflation
+
+Quote from the [article](https://www.businessinsider.com.au/big-short-michael-burry-warren-buffett-inflation-dangers-warning-investors-2021-2?r=US&amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;IR=T):
+
+"Burry has been sounding the alarm on inflation. He warned investors last week to "prepare for inflation" as the US economy reopens and receives a fresh round of stimulus. He also compared America's current trajectory to Germany's path to hyperinflation in the 1920s."
+
+<https://www.businessinsider.com.au/big-short-michael-burry-warren-buffett-inflation-dangers-warning-investors-2021-2?r=US&amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;IR=T>
+
+The effects of inflation causes different ripple effects, usually increases the banks interest rates reducing the amount of demand of loans, among many many other side effects.
+
+Also causes products such as goods or services to rise. That will reduce the buying power of a currency.
+
+---- CURRENCY BUYING POWER AND DEPRECIATION
+
+Imagine you having $5 and being able to buy a train ticket for $3 and an ice cream for $2.
+
+When inflation rises, means that the buying power of your money is gonna be reduced, now the train ticket is $3.50 and the ice cream is $2.30, suddenly with your $5 you can only get the train ticket and you are short $0.80 for the ice cream :((.
+
+---- RIPPLE IN THE MORTGAGE LIKE 2008
+
+The ripples effect also affects other things like loans or mortgages.
+
+If you have a subprime loan or mortgage with adjustable rates (this mortgages where the ones that caused the 2008 housing collapse trough swaps) and the interests rates of the banks go up, suddenly my mortgage payments will go up, a lot of people that doesn't have enough money to pay that different will stop paying and the mortgages will default.
+
+This affects on auto loans, student loans and more.
+
+Well... with hyperinflation... like the prefix hyper says, it's BIGGER! So imagine that scenario bigger.
+
+Possibly worse that 2008!!! And the rates and indexes like the SP500 look high.
+
+<https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/mq2iam/just_hold_on_tight/?utm_source=share&amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;utm_medium=ios_app&amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;utm_name=iossmf>
+
+Seems scary right? It's not!!
+
+Check one of my posts for 2 weeks ago talking about this (I made it when I didn't know as much so dont hit me too hard on that one!! :P)
+
+<https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/mqmj5e/the_how_is_this_gonna_play_out_game_my_prediction/?utm_source=share&amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;utm_medium=ios_app&amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;utm_name=iossmf>
+
+Everything is going to be fine and if something this is very healthy for the economy.
+
+The best thing that we need right now is to stop Kenny from creating bubbles of fake shares everywhere!! Its a parasite inside the market!
+
+Let's keep going, gets better and better! Read my TL;DR further down.
+
+* * * * *
+
+EDIT 4: WARNING WARNING ON ETFs STREET!!
+
+"ETFs are linked like a web. We've had two flash crashes amplified by them in the last 11 years, and their behavior during last year's pandemic accelerated the crash. CMBS are potentially a bowling ball that's going to crash through the spider web of ETFs."
+
+Thank you you beautiful ape for this info, you know who!!
+
+Check this key article: <https://theintercept.com/2021/04/20/wall-street-cmbs-dollar-general-ladder-capital/>
+
+Check this key research paper: Is COVID Revealing a CMBS Virus? <https://ssrn.com/abstract=3671162>"
+
+BIG WARNING FELLOWS!! EMBRACE FOR IMPACT!
+
+Rocky ride to the moon, but we are getting there don't be scared!
+
+------------------------------------
+
+LIBOR to SOFR
+
+Take all this this a grain of salt, Probably make a couple of mistakes. [READ THE CHAOS THEORY DD](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/mseyai/chaos_theory_the_final_connection/) to have the proper DD about this. (recommend the whole saga!!)
+
+Changes from Libor to SOFR were meant to happen in 2022, but guess what?
+
+They pushed to to June 2021!!!
+
+<https://webstorage.paulhastings.com/Documents/PDFs/timeline-for-libor-transition.pdf?sfvrsn=363ea8ab_2>
+
+This is massive!! Why?
+
+Banks used LIBOR to manipulate their self created and self reported interest rates in order to be favorable and give away money left right and center. Where did tons of that money go? To HEDGEFUNDS!!!
+
+They borrowed money from banks for almost no interest rates no matter how the economy and inflation was, including during an unprecedented pandemic!!! For what? SHORTING Kenny style!
+
+Wtf??
+
+Now you wonder why during a pandemic the whole market was "healthy" and up and growing right?? Inflating business with naked shares...
+
+Using the same shitadel strategy but with money from the banks and washing everything trough citadel MM, trust bonds and dumping all the garbage in the ETFs and the trust bonds buyers.
+
+Always betting in bankrupting the companies and then rebuying them to own pieces of the banks/federal reserve.
+
+So what all this changes mean?
+
+With Libor banks suppose to self regulate and self report and give interest rates to their customer (business, institutions, people or the government) according to how the economy is, indicators like inflation among other things. [Read about it here.](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/l/libor.asp#:~:text=LIBOR%20is%20administered%20by%20the,data%2Ddriven%2C%20layered%20method)
+
+The banks have been manipulating this FOR A LONG TIME. Especially after 2008.
+
+I guess they wanted to recoup their loses and because being HOLDINGS now, they wanted to be bigger and bigger.
+
+BOOM! The greed
+
+They got too greedy.... :( Even during the pandemic they gave away loans at very low and favorable rates, it was more than obvious that the economy wasn't right... they needed to raise the rates!
+
+They didn't!!
+
+Now they are full of this bad bad loans with subpremiun and adjustable rates, but everything was ok as long as they kept on showing those fake interest rates right?
+
+SOFR arrives!!
+
+SOFR was almost implemented on 2019 and almost caused a massive crisis!! BUBBLE ALERT!
+
+why?
+
+Lets find out what SOFR means
+
+[What is SOFR?](https://www.investopedia.com/secured-overnight-financing-rate-sofr-4683954)
+
+<https://www.jdsupra.com/legalnews/libor-transition-to-sofr-a-brief-9557503/>
+
+Thanks to a fellow ape in the comments for providing this link ❤️
+
+The secured overnight financing rate, or SOFR, is an influential interest rate that banks use to price U.S. dollar-denominated [derivatives](https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/12/derivative.asp) and loans. The daily secured overnight financing rate (SOFR) is based on transactions in the [Treasury](https://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/073113/introduction-treasury-securities.asp) repurchase market, where investors offer banks overnight loans backed by their bond assets.
+
+So the interest rates are not going to be self reported by the banks, but instead the government is going to provide those rates to the banks based on the repo market.
+
+They believe is a better option than letting the banks manipulate the rates for their advantage.
+
+This magnificent ape made a really good post about it and thats how I found out about this problem, all credit to him!!
+
+<https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/mseyai/chaos_theory_the_final_connection/>
+
+FROM THE CHAOS THEORY:
+
+Introducing SOFR (Secured Overnight Financing Rate)!!!!! This is a MASSIVE 200 trillion dollar transition that will take place over the next few years.
+
+OH and it almost imploded the entire fucking market the first time it was attempted to be implemented back in 2019 <https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/notes/feds-notes/what-happened-in-money-markets-in-september-2019-20200227.htm>
+
+[Definition](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/t/treasurybond.asp)
+
+brilliant ape make the [CHAOS THEORY](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/mseyai/chaos_theory_the_final_connection/) and explains a lot of what im saying here. A MUST READ
+
+<https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/mseyai/chaos_theory_the_final_connection/>
+
+I'll let the rest to the CHAOS THEORY, very well explained.
+
+That's why Kenny is shorting the TREASURY BILLS, NOTES ands BOND!
+
+He wants to profit from the banks and government to be insolvent and default!!
+
+QUOTED FROM CHAOS THEORY:
+
+As time progresses I believe we will see more evidence of multiple parties attempting to deleverage their positions before 2023. Coincidentally GameStop has just paid off all their debt that was due that exact year.
+
+So this becomes a two pronged problem;
+
+1.  Assets are being re-hypothecated which are being used as collateral
+
+2.  Banks are providing absurd interest rates off the old LIBOR system instead of SOFR; this has resulted in the taking on a position that will be extremely difficult to get out of.
+
+As we can see they're fighting against these changes through politics, but it appears they've brought in Gary Gensler to kick some ass.
+
+We are going to be fine, a few blows to the economy and crisis but everything is going to turn down and de leverage. ----------
+
+EDIT 3: Check the latest SEC speech, they seem to be focusing a lot on Libor!!! We might be onto something.... Or I'm I just a cOnSpIrAtOr QaNoN sHiLl!!!
+
+SEC speech on 28 th of April!!
+
+<https://www.sec.gov/news/speech/werewolves-of-change>
+
+-----------------------------------
+
+IM JACKED TO THE TITS!
+
+TL;DR2 : This is my latest perception and final conclusion of this beautiful saga!
+
+Well.... Battle of GME is basically going to bankrupt citadel. BOOM!
+
+It's going be the biggest wealth distribution in history. BOOM!
+
+There is going to be a domino and a ripple effect. (It's not all about GME, GME is just the tip of the iceberg).
+
+Kenny has been creating bubbles of money naked with things that does exist to Scam business and retail (among others). Its going to burst, when the bubbles burst, will have repercussions everywhere.
+
+A lot of tendies are going to the people. That will create a lot of money going around, not just for apes but for everyone, apes will be buying things and paying off their debts and all that.
+
+That will help reducing the leverage.
+
+Hyperinflation is going to hit, but the government is going to be able to take it and absorb a big part trough (TIPS) <https://www.investopedia.com/terms/t/tips.asp>
+
+People and apes are not going to care much about the raise in pricing (inflation) because we will have money and wealth around, huge economy stimulus (Thanks you citadel for the tendies!).
+
+A huge chunk of money will come to the banks initially, people paying their credit card and loans and mortgages.
+
+Then tax will come and Uncle Sam will get half of our tendies (if helps the economy not to boom boom im fine!).
+
+Then things will be stable then and hopefully lot cleaner after.
+
+This is necessary and healthy to Happen, stock is trading sideways to prepare for all that.
+
+This is why I think is low volume and trading sideways lately
+
+Stock is trading sideways because RC needed to to pay the debt and be free from banks leverage.
+
+Also gather money for the transformation, ! he already did !.
+
+Also trading still low allow more Apes to jump in!! RC care for us and everyone. Ohhh PAPA RC.
+
+The DTCC needs time to firewall and protect the banks from Kenny and friends predators.
+
+Once everything is in place and the scam is suppressed, the huge winners are going be the banks and the federal reserve. But us apes going to ride the rollercoaster all along getting tendies!!
+
+I won't be surprised if the catalyst is RC announcing a recall, investigation or a crypto dividend on the meeting.
+
+My smooth brain tells me the catalyst is the Libor to SOFR, always been for me.
+
+The voting is big because they will have grounds to show the amount of shorting and fukery.
+
+So be patient and don't be scared. HOLD THE LINE!
+
+This needs to be done and Kenny needs to be stopped because is making bubbles everywhere in the market is damaging shareholders, the companies and THE ECONOMY!!
+
+----------------------------------------------------
+
+Thanks!!
+
+EDIT 1: Kenny Kenny Kenny...... some history of Kenny!!!
+
+EDIT 2: Clues and pieces so you can DIG DIG and make your own DD!!! It's time to wake up and keep this baby rolling!!
+
+EDIT 3: check on the new SEC speech on 28 th of April!!
+
+<https://www.sec.gov/news/speech/werewolves-of-change>
+
+Thanks to magnificent [u/sharkbaitlol](https://www.reddit.com/u/sharkbaitlol/) for providing the info.
+
+You guys check his work THE CHAOS THEORIES that's a must read DD!
+
+EDIT 4: WARNING WARNING ON ETFs!!!
+
+Look at this magnificent ape work! Holy shit....
+
+<https://www.reddit.com/r/DDintoGME/comments/n0i9tw/the_etf_seesaw_part_1/>
+
+*None of this is financial advice. I'm a retarded ape just rambling words. I'm crazy and a horrible man. So don't believe or listen to anything I say. Don't trust me and do your own research and fact check, I did and I'm jacked to the tits!!*
+
+EDIT 5: I'm I wrong????
+
+<https://www.propublica.org/article/whistleblower-wall-street-has-engaged-in-widespread-manipulation-of-mortgage-funds>
+
+<https://www.propublica.org/article/whistleblower-wall-street-has-engaged-in-widespread-manipulation-of-mortgage-funds>
+
+[PART 1](https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/comments/n2hgxq/13_the_ultimate_dd_guide_to_the_moon_crazy_melon/)
+
+[PART 2](https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/comments/n2hhhn/23_the_ultimate_dd_guide_to_the_moon_crazy_melon/)
+
+BONUS!!: Remember "I am not a CAT!"?
+
+<https://financial-dictionary.thefreedictionary.com/CAT>
+
+WE ARE THE LAST LINE OF DEFENSE AGAINST THIS SCAM! HOLD THE LINE!!!!
+
+This is not financial advice at all! Just a crazy melon 🍉 playing with some crayons. I eat the sometimes yummmm
+
+💎🙌------&gt; 🦍🦧🚀🌝!!
+
+If you are not done reading....
+
+I recommend this work.....
+
+[u/atobitt](https://www.reddit.com/u/atobitt/) good DD to inform yourself
+
+[u/sharkbaitlol](https://www.reddit.com/u/sharkbaitlol/) chaos theories connect a lot of dots
+
+[u/toffis](https://www.reddit.com/r/gme_capitalists/comments/mvwc9k/financial_system_historical_ownership_and/?utm_source=share&amp;utm_medium=ios_app&amp;utm_name=iossmf)
+
+Now this chart does look that crazy now?
+
+<https://www.docdroid.net/Q8qCCvM/rgme-pokes-at-kenny-g-pdf>