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@ -1,9 +0,0 @@
|
||||
# I Am Not a Financial Advisor PDF
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [@iamnotafinadv](https://www.twitter.com/iamnotafinadv) | [Source](https://iamnotafinancialadvisor.com/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
[GMEv14.zip](https://github.com/verymeticulous/wikAPEdia/files/6764891/GMEv14.zip)
|
@ -66,8 +66,6 @@
|
||||
| [Superstonk](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/) | | 🚨 [Superstonk Emergency Broadcast](https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCI4EET9NJPWxUuXGlG6fxPA) 🚨 |
|
||||
| [u/DeepFuckingValue](https://www.reddit.com/user/DeepFuckingValue/) | [@TheRoaringKitty](https://twitter.com/theroaringkitty?lang=en) | [Roaring Kitty](https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC0patpmwYbhcEUap0bTX3JQ) |
|
||||
| Ryan Cohen | [@ryancohen](https://twitter.com/ryancohen) | |
|
||||
| [RedChessQueen](https://www.reddit.com/user/redchessqueen99/) | [@RedChessQueen99](https://twitter.com/RedChessQueen99) | |
|
||||
| [Rensole](https://www.reddit.com/user/rensole/) | [@rensole](https://twitter.com/ryancohen) | |
|
||||
| [HeyItsPixel](https://www.reddit.com/user/HeyItsPixeL/) | [@heyitspixel69](https://twitter.com/heyitspixel69) | |
|
||||
| [PinkCatsOnAcid](https://www.reddit.com/user/pinkcatsonacid/) | [@PinkCatsOnAcid](https://twitter.com/PinkCatsOnAcid) | |
|
||||
| [Dennis Kelleher](https://www.reddit.com/user/WallSt4MainSt/) | [@BetterMarkets](https://twitter.com/BetterMarkets) | |
|
||||
|
132
DD/2021-07-12-COVID-19-The-CARES-Act-and-Undeniable-Greed.md
Normal file
132
DD/2021-07-12-COVID-19-The-CARES-Act-and-Undeniable-Greed.md
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@ -0,0 +1,132 @@
|
||||
COVID-19, The CARES Act, and Undeniable Greed: The Story of How Wall Street Tried to Bankrupt Businesses with Money Meant to Save Businesses (GME Centric)
|
||||
==========================================================================================================================================================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/Freadom6](https://www.reddit.com/user/Freadom6/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/oiwpxj/covid19_the_cares_act_and_undeniable_greed_the/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
[DD 👨🔬](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22DD%20%F0%9F%91%A8%E2%80%8D%F0%9F%94%AC%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||
Obligatory: This should not be confused with financial advise. I do not offer finanicial advice or services. I am simply pointing out connections I am making through data and deductive reasoning.
|
||||
|
||||
TL;dr Prepare yourself for this next sentence, take a deep breath... How would you feel if I told you investment firms were given LARGE DOLLAR AMOUNTS in Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) "forgivable" loans (the money designed to keep businesses afloat during the pandemic) and the data and timing is indicating they used those funds to try to bankrupt businesses, including GME? Errrrmm... Scoots chair around uncomfortably... Because that is what I am about to tell you through these many words (and some pictures). Roughly $1.5 Billion worth of PPP loans went out to the "Industry" of "Investment Advice" through 12/1/2020.
|
||||
|
||||
["Investment Advice" Industry Loan Data](https://www.federalpay.org/paycheck-protection-program/industries/investment-advice)
|
||||
|
||||
[PPP Loan Forgiveness Requirements](https://www.sba.gov/funding-programs/loans/covid-19-relief-options/paycheck-protection-program/ppp-loan-forgiveness)
|
||||
|
||||
GME & MEME STOCKS HIT BOTTOM 4/2 & 4/3 of 2020
|
||||
|
||||
I originally began this journey into the great cesspool of our market system to compare GME monthly close prices to FINRA's reported margin debt, and while I did find the information I was looking for to show the continued correlation between GME and the current margin debt I slowly began to realize that was no longer the information I was seeking (I will make a margin debt post later this week). Why? Because looking at this information caused me to see that GME hit its bottom, in regard to share price, on April 3rd, 2020 after a 6 day skid beginning on March 27th, 2020 (I'm about to be sinful, avert your eyes if necessary, the movie company hit its bottom on April 2nd, 2020 after a 5 day skid beginning on March 27th, 2020, and Black Berry hit it's low on 4/3/2020 as well). In case this was a whole market slide I checked out some other tickers and found some other stock prices fell slightly, but most remained relatively flat compared to GME and the meme stocks.
|
||||
|
||||
[GME Share Price Movement (and volume) Credit: www.investing.com](https://preview.redd.it/utb3wshkfta71.jpg?width=660&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=abe10fbed10dc955d82fc529a285b47d6aae1d63)
|
||||
|
||||
[Credit: www.investing.com](https://preview.redd.it/d4zs1pnigta71.jpg?width=332&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=e51a5e1389d66b035ebee3fa1d04c814d319fbd0)
|
||||
|
||||
CARES ACT
|
||||
|
||||
So, why is March 27th, 2020, of any importance? Because on that day, "The Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security (CARES) Act (2020)... provided fast and direct economic assistance for American workers, families, small businesses, and industries" was signed into law. [CARES ACT](https://home.treasury.gov/policy-issues/coronavirus/about-the-cares-act)
|
||||
|
||||
So now you are saying to yourself, yeah, but Hedge Funds were ineligible from receiving the funding even though they applied for it in mass amounts so why should I care? Because it appears that many firms investing in the market were QUITE ELIGIBLE as the below information is going to point out, and the data is indicating they used those funds or the anticipation of those funds to hammer GME and meme stocks with short selling from 3/27/20 -- 4/3/20.
|
||||
|
||||
Let us reiterate, the money designed to keep small businesses afloat during the COVID-19 Winter of Discontent was used by firms investing in the stock market. What is worse, the data is showing that some of these firms were using the funds to short GME & meme stocks.
|
||||
|
||||
FOX BUSINESS ARTICLE 4/18/2020
|
||||
|
||||
Now, we'll take a look to a Fox Business article from 4/18/2020, written by: Charlie Gasparino (He is active on social media, but I'm not sure what he's up to these days aside from hating retail investors):
|
||||
|
||||
[Stimulus Intended to Help Coronavirus-Ravaged Small Businesses Instead Rewarding Hedge Funds, Brokerages](https://www.foxbusiness.com/money/stimulus-intended-to-help-coronavirus-ravaged-small-businesses-instead-rewarding-hedge-funds-brokerages)
|
||||
|
||||
*"The bank was receiving applications (for PPP Loans) not just from those barely solvent mom-and-pop businesses like* [*restaurants*](https://www.foxbusiness.com/category/food-drinks)*, salons and family-run* [*factories*](https://www.foxbusiness.com/category/industries) *shuttered amid the nationwide pandemic shutdown that the legislation was supposed to help.*
|
||||
|
||||
*Flowing into his system were applications from businesses no one would consider small, or even barely solvent:* *Midsized hedge funds**,* *brokerage businesses,* *small law firms, all outfits that are making money, much of it through fee income, and many operating remotely almost as if nothing had changed.*
|
||||
|
||||
*How could this be? What the banker discovered was that with less than 500* [*employees*](https://www.foxbusiness.com/category/jobs)*, financial firms and other high-end businesses are technically qualified for low-interest federally guaranteed loans under the broad parameters of the government's Payroll Protection Program (PPP).*
|
||||
|
||||
*And many were sending applications to his bank for the cash, as much as $10 million in the form of a forgivable loan, even if these weren't the types of small businesses Washington was looking to aid.*
|
||||
|
||||
*Even worse, the hedge funds and brokerage businesses were in effect taking money that should be earmarked for businesses that can barely survive in a time of social distancing and quarantines.*
|
||||
|
||||
*These companies have been forced to lay off workers just to make rent, while many banks were prioritizing loans on a first-come, first-served basis and giving priority to their best customers. That means* [*hedge funds*](https://www.foxbusiness.com/category/hedge-funds) *and financial firms with deep pockets and significant banking relationships could be getting the money ahead of the local coffee shop...*
|
||||
|
||||
*"What's going to happen is a class divide we haven't seen in years," the banker told FOX Business. "Remember Occupy Wall Street?" he asked, referring to the sometimes violent protest movement after the 2008 financial collapse and bank bailouts. "These protests will be bigger and more violent because the economic problems are worse and the disparity of the money is favoring Wall Street even more.""*
|
||||
|
||||
Fuck me... I do not think my words are needed in summarizing this article. In case the article is now mysteriously updated I have taken screenshots of the entire article and will post them if necessary. Check the article out for additional details.
|
||||
|
||||
Here is a MarketWatch Article from 4/15/2020 reiterating some main points: ["It's a complete abomination" says Wall Street money manager about hedge funds applying for bailouts from small-business recovery funds](https://www.marketwatch.com/story/its-a-complete-abomination-says-wall-street-money-manager-about-hedge-funds-applying-for-bailouts-from-small-business-recovery-funds-2020-04-14)
|
||||
|
||||
DD on 13F Filings
|
||||
|
||||
Armed with this information I decided to dig into the latest 2021 13F filings through [www.whalewisdom.com](http://www.whalewisdom.com/) and PPP loan recipients from <http://ppprecipients.com/> and found some interesting information. I did not review every company with holdings in GME, this is just a sample of firms with GME positions and some of those that received funding through the CARES Act (PPP Funds):
|
||||
|
||||
2021-Q2 13F/13D/G Filings
|
||||
|
||||
COMPANY 1
|
||||
|
||||
1. Company: Advisornet Financial
|
||||
|
||||
2. Shares: 10,000 (put)
|
||||
|
||||
3. Loan amount: $1 - $2 Million (approved on 4/4/2020)
|
||||
|
||||
COMPANY 2
|
||||
|
||||
1. Company: Creative Planning
|
||||
|
||||
2. Shares: 13,700 (put)
|
||||
|
||||
3. Loan Amount: $350k - $1 Million (approved on 4/13/2020)
|
||||
|
||||
Company 3
|
||||
|
||||
1. Company: Larson Financial Holdings
|
||||
|
||||
2. Shares: 100 (put)
|
||||
|
||||
3. Loan Amount: $2M - $5 Million (approved on 4/7/2020)
|
||||
|
||||
All of these loans were approved in early April, 2020, meaning they were filed even earlier, before the PPP was signed into law on 4/24/2020, and look at how close those dates are to the implementation of the CARES Act and the GME tumble from 3/27/2020 -- 4/3/2020. LOOK HOW CLOSE. AND all these companies have open PUT positions in GME as of the last filing. Betting GME share price will go down. How did they receive funding when other small businesses were exempt and ended up going bankrupt? They directly or indirectly used the money designed to keep the economy and struggling businesses afloat to open put positions in GME? WTF?
|
||||
|
||||
Now, things feel interesting. So, I decided to go even further down this slime covered cavern and look at 13F filings from 2020-Q2 (when GME hit its lowest close price) to see if any funds with actual shares in GME had received any loans and was unsurprised, but genuinely angry. I went "A" - "B" alphabetically through the list and found 3 companies who had shares in GME in 2020-Q2 that still have positions today (I skimmed through and saw plenty more later in the alphabet, I just have a hard time counting letters that high due to my intellectual inconsistencies):
|
||||
|
||||
2020-Q2 13/F
|
||||
|
||||
Company 1
|
||||
|
||||
Advisors Asset Management, Inc
|
||||
|
||||
1. 2020 Q2 Shares: 134,632
|
||||
|
||||
2. Loan Amount: $5M - $10 Million (approved on 4/5/2020)
|
||||
|
||||
3. Current Shares: 33,789 (latest 13/F filing)
|
||||
|
||||
Company 2
|
||||
|
||||
Arkadios Wealth Advisors (Arkadios Capital)
|
||||
|
||||
1. 2020 Q2 Shares: (Sold all shares - 2)
|
||||
|
||||
2. Loan Amount: $150k - $350k (approved on 4/9/2020)
|
||||
|
||||
3. Current Shares: 2210
|
||||
|
||||
Company 3:
|
||||
|
||||
Bridgeway Capital Management
|
||||
|
||||
1. 2020 Q2 Shares: 76,900
|
||||
|
||||
2. Loan Amount: $350k - $1 Million (approved on 4/11/2020)
|
||||
|
||||
3. Current Shares: 40,600
|
||||
|
||||
My speculation is that several firms applied for the PPP funds on or near 3/27/2020, knew the funds were coming, and used those anticipated funds to aggressively short GME and other meme stocks due to the absolute tumble that GME/Meme stocks took from 3/26/2020 -- 4/3/2020 as stated above.
|
||||
|
||||
I'm unsure how to conclude this post aside from: Buy/HODL. The day is coming.
|
||||
|
||||
Tanks fo' reedin'.
|
||||
|
||||
Edit: Thanks to [u/Evorus_Krayde](https://www.reddit.com/u/Evorus_Krayde/) for getting me to [u/Doggoonewild](https://www.reddit.com/u/Doggoonewild/) post: [Citadel Alum Charged with $2.4M PPP Loan Scam](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/mw3jd3/citadel_alum_charged_with_24m_ppp_loan_scam/?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share)
|
@ -0,0 +1,136 @@
|
||||
Delta/Gamma Neutral Update - Hold strong!
|
||||
=========================================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/yelyah2](https://www.reddit.com/user/yelyah2/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/og9pcv/deltagamma_neutral_update_hold_strong/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
[DD 👨🔬](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22DD%20%F0%9F%91%A8%E2%80%8D%F0%9F%94%AC%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||
TLDR: This is just a quick update for the Delta Neutral/Gamma Neutral/Gamma Maximum indicators. The DN is currently ~$157, which isn't ideal for red days like we've been having, but GME always bounces back if it does drop. Hold strong!
|
||||
|
||||
*Background*
|
||||
|
||||
My work is built on the idea that the market is largely unpredictable, but one particular kind of behavior is certain - hedgies gonna hedge. It's written into their algorithms. Specifically, they like to delta hedge and gamma hedge. This work tries to profit on this one particular type of buying/selling behavior.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/sk94lr67d0a71.png?width=300&format=png&auto=webp&s=2d69b060bbd94a962f23985309109832a9031764)
|
||||
|
||||
Hedgies Hedgin'
|
||||
|
||||
In general, all stock indicators boil down to two things - reversion to the mean and momentum. Every trader wants to accurately predict these two forces better than other guy, and if you use different indicators than the other guy, that an give you an 'alpha' in trading if it's a better predictor.
|
||||
|
||||
I make a lot of different indicators, but the two primary ones are the Delta Neutral and Gamma Neutral:
|
||||
|
||||
- Delta Neutral (DN) - This helps identify reversion to the mean, and represents the underlying price that would create a total market delta of 0 across all GME options (all expiration dates) for a given date. In general, it acts like a floor to the underlying price, but if the price drops below the delta neutral, then it tends to shoot back up above that line.
|
||||
|
||||
- This is generally how I trade my model. I watch for stocks that drop below the DN, and buy them, expecting for traders to identify that the stock is underpriced and will revert back to a higher level.
|
||||
|
||||
- Gamma Neutral (GN) and Gamma Maximum (GM) - This helps identify momentum. The GN represents the underlying price that would create a total market gamma of 0 across all GME options (all expiration dates) for a given date, whereas the GM represents the underlying price that would create the maximum gamma across the market.
|
||||
|
||||
- In general, a sudden increase in gamma indicates a sharp upward in momentum that continues until that gamma drops.
|
||||
|
||||
- The GM seems to act like a ceiling, but fun things happen when the underlying crossing that threshold!
|
||||
|
||||
This is my own personal 'alpha' that I developed for my own trading purposes, and am sharing with this community because it's given me back so much. This is not financial advice. I'm just a mathematician that likes to play with options data, and I am not a professional trader.
|
||||
|
||||
There is a detailed data dictionary, methodology and assumptions section at the bottom that gives my method in full detail.
|
||||
|
||||
*Delta/Gamma Neutral Graph*
|
||||
|
||||
Here's the graph you're used to seeing, and it includes the Close Price (green), delta neutral (blue), gamma neutral (orange) and gamma maximum (red), on a log-based 10 scale so you can see those spikes in all their glory.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/c01cdyzfb0a71.png?width=910&format=png&auto=webp&s=80f628b1d49d920ef5ceaf49911ea5678c267e52)
|
||||
|
||||
A few things that happened since I last posted:
|
||||
|
||||
- I've been working hard on updates to my model and creating new indicators that I hope to share soon. I know I keep saying that, but research takes time. There are a lot of twists/turns/unexpected results. May post what I have so far soon, and see if the group has any ideas to explain what I'm seeing.
|
||||
|
||||
- I refined my IV methodology, which caused the DN optimization to break during the January squeeze (not surprising), but that's why you see it crash out in January. I'm working on identifying why that's happening.
|
||||
|
||||
- The delta neutral floor is currently holding steady around $157, which obviously isn't ideal during these red days, but just know that GME always bounces back if it does drop.
|
||||
|
||||
- GME likes to hang out between 10% and 30% higher than the delta neutral price if nothing unusual happens, which gives a range of $172 - $204 for the underlying.
|
||||
|
||||
- GME's high is 214% higher than the DN back on 1/27, so certainly able to break higher, but it will see resistance to break higher.
|
||||
|
||||
- No significant action with the GN since 6/8
|
||||
|
||||
- The GM is currently at $247, indicating fun things COULD happen if we can bounce over that point.
|
||||
|
||||
*Methodology and Assumptions*
|
||||
|
||||
Delta Neutral
|
||||
|
||||
The Delta Neutral price that creates a total market delta of 0 across all GME options (all expiration dates) for a given date. It can also be though of as the intersection of a supply/demand curve for hedged stocks. See the "Methodology and Assumptions" section for full detail on how I develop this indicator.
|
||||
|
||||
Notes below for general options on how the delta neutral interacts with the underlying price:
|
||||
|
||||
- There is a large influx of call option purchases, because:
|
||||
|
||||
- The call prices get less expensive as the underlying price approaches the delta neutral
|
||||
|
||||
- Stock prices usually rebound/revert back to the mean after large crashes, so the price often rebounds anyways.
|
||||
|
||||
- With the large influx of call volume, market makers have to start buying stocks to delta hedge, which turns the price back around and creates an upward trajectory.
|
||||
|
||||
- Important note that hedgies often hedge with derivatives instead of buying stocks, so there isn't a 1-to-1 relationship between the delta and shares bought/sold by hedge funds.
|
||||
|
||||
- Historically, you can see that GME often bounces off the delta neutral prices during drops. The exception is the February drop. When the underlying goes below the delta neutral price, a lot of pressure builds up that results in a significant increase when that pressure is released.
|
||||
|
||||
- Note this is the primary way that I trade my model. I made a scanner that looks for equities that fall below the delta neutral.
|
||||
|
||||
Gamma Neutral
|
||||
|
||||
The Gamma Neutral price that creates a total market gamma of 0 across all GME options (all expiration dates) for a given date. See the "Methodology and Assumptions" section for full detail on how I develop this indicator.
|
||||
|
||||
General notes below for observations on how this indicator behaves:
|
||||
|
||||
- It acts like support/resistance between the delta neutral and the underlying, and typically bounces around between the two prices for most symbols (like we have seen with GME since April).
|
||||
|
||||
- It also goes crazy in periods of high volatility, as you can see by the very higher spikes.
|
||||
|
||||
- A gamma spike indicates the presence of POTENTAILLY slippery option market conditions, which COULD lead to a gamma squeeze. There were certainly spikes present back in January, but we had a few one-day false starts this last month.
|
||||
|
||||
- They are often triggered by high price movement in a day, which can lead to continue high growth if underlying volume supports it.
|
||||
|
||||
- Gamma spikes can also be triggered by unusual options purchases during the day. These are the one ones to find, because you can often catch the high increase waves before they actually start.
|
||||
|
||||
- If I'm trading this indicator, I often either wait for a gamma spike to continue for 2 days in a row and supported by increased volume. Otherwise, I invest straight away if I find a gamma spike just based on options movement (i.e. no significant underlying increase yet).
|
||||
|
||||
I write my own algorithms to produce the results above. The following lists some key methodology and assumptions I use:
|
||||
|
||||
- I rely on daily options and stock summaries produced by [www.historicaloptionsdata.com](http://www.historicaloptionsdata.com/)
|
||||
|
||||
- For the Implied Volatility (IV), I use the following method:
|
||||
|
||||
- Calculate the raw IV of the mid-point between bid/ask price at close.
|
||||
|
||||
- Calculate a "blend" IV, which represents the IV where the call/put parity holds, i.e. where call delta -- put delta = 1, using the same IV.
|
||||
|
||||
- Smooth the mid-point call/put and blend IV using a gaussian smoothing algorithm with a 20-strike window.
|
||||
|
||||
- Apply the smoothed call/put relativities to the smoothed blended IV curve
|
||||
|
||||
- Fill any missing values with a linear interpolation of the neighboring strikes.
|
||||
|
||||
- Using the final call/put IV estimates described above, I calculate my own Greeks. I like this source if you're interested in the formulas: <https://www.macroption.com/option-greeks-excel>
|
||||
|
||||
- For the total market delta and total market gamma, I rely on the OI x delta and OI x gamma for each strike price.
|
||||
|
||||
- Note that the delta of a call is usually equal to (1 - put delta), so not adjustment is needed to the delta signs when calculating the total market delta.
|
||||
|
||||
- However, the call/put gammas are both positive based on the B-S calculation. If you're calculating the total gamma for a portfolio, or the total market, you have to add the call gamma and subtract the put gamma.
|
||||
|
||||
- To estimate the delta neutral and the gamma neutral, I have an algorithm that relies on the optimization toolbox in Matlab to identify an underlying price that achieve a total market delta and a total market gamma.
|
||||
|
||||
- Note that the IV would change with higher/lower prices for the delta/gamma neutral and the sensitivity tests, but the impact is not significant enough to make a meaningful difference and takes significant processing time to apply the IV curves. However, it is an important simplifying assumption to be aware of.
|
||||
|
||||
- Open Interest (OI) is always lagged one day for options summaries. The OCC releases final open interest on a given day, and it represents the OI for the close of the prior day. Therefore, the OI I get in my summaries on 6/28 does not represent the OI as of close on 6/28. It represents the OI as of close on 6/25. If you see a source like Yahoo give live OI throughout the day, they are only estimates, and their algorithm methodology for estimating the OI based on various price/volume movement is a closely guarded secret. Using the prior day OI is currently a limitation of the data available to me.
|
||||
|
||||
*Disclaimer: I'm just a mathematician that likes to play with options data and builds models to trade for a hobby. I have no experience trading professionally or offering any advice to anyone. Nothing is certain in trading. It's all probabilities and what increases/decreases your chance at a profit. This is just one indicator for one type of price movement, and there are many other indicators that can help you make investment decisions.*
|
||||
|
||||
*I'll do my best to respond to all comments, including the negative ones. I'm happy to have a productive chat about any of my logic. I've gotten a lot of good ideas from posting on this forum, so thank you! However, if I can defend myself in a dark parking lot with nothing but my high heels, I can certainly defend myself against online trolls. So be nice.*
|
||||
|
||||
TLDR: This is just a quick update for the Delta Neutral/Gamma Neutral/Gamma Maximum indicators. The DN is currently ~$157, which isn't ideal for red days like we've been having, but GME always bounces back if it does drop. Hold strong!
|
@ -0,0 +1,164 @@
|
||||
Knock Knock Knockin' on Delta Neutral's Door
|
||||
============================================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/yelyah2](https://www.reddit.com/user/yelyah2/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/ojevhv/knock_knock_knockin_on_delta_neutrals_door/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
[Possible DD 👨🔬](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22Possible%20DD%20%F0%9F%91%A8%E2%80%8D%F0%9F%94%AC%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||
*Disclaimer: With the recent debate on the sub, I've decided to label my posts as "Possible DD" until someone is able to peer review my work, and independently replicate it. So far, my only proof has been how it works in the field, which means it should not be blindly taken as truth. I fully support academic standards, as every part of my work in real life is peer reviewed and my work has always been improved by an extra set of eyes. However, I also support choice and freedom of speech, so I think it's up to every writer to decide how to label their own work. It's also the responsibility of every reader to judge the quality of content they read, and don't take anything at face value. To the moon for us all!*
|
||||
|
||||
TLDR: My read of several indicators (both contained in this post, and in my model) is we should start seeing some buying pressure this week, most likely in the option settlement period (Tuesday - Thursday), which will start us on a steady incline upwards.
|
||||
|
||||
Although I can't report an imminent trip to the heavens using my indicators, I can say that we're knocking on the Delta Neutral's door... just as good? No.. but it does signal a turn-around is coming soon!
|
||||
|
||||
My work is built on the idea that the market is largely unpredictable, but one particular kind of behavior is certain - hedgies gonna hedge. It's written into their algorithms. Specifically, they like to delta hedge and gamma hedge. This work tries to profit on this one particular type of buying/selling behavior. If you're lost, please refer to the detailed data dictionary, methodology and assumptions section at the bottom.
|
||||
|
||||
*Delta/Gamma Neutral Graphs*
|
||||
|
||||
Here she is! This graph includes the Close Price (green), delta neutral (blue), gamma neutral (orange) and gamma maximum (red), on a log-based 10 scale so you can see those spikes in all their glory.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/6xmd5xls20b71.png?width=910&format=png&auto=webp&s=9fdb10a53d66a907fc38a7580259c821bfd151ca)
|
||||
|
||||
GME 1/4/2021 - 7/12/2021 - Log Based 10 Scale
|
||||
|
||||
Observations for the graph below:
|
||||
|
||||
- the GME close price has been drifting downwards, while the delta neutral has been drifting upwards.
|
||||
|
||||
- The gamma neutral has been bouncing around between, and now the DN/GN/Close are all converging.
|
||||
|
||||
- Because the underlying price is drifting lower, instead of dropping quickly, so it MAY continue to drop past the DN before springing back up, but based on other indicators, I expect that pressure from hitting the DN will start making it more appealing to call buyers, and we should start to see a steady incline soon.
|
||||
|
||||
- The max gamma is holding steady at $260, which is my target to hit in order to launch us upwards.
|
||||
|
||||
Just for fun, I thought would share a few other popular stocks that you can review for comparison. As you can see, the stocks often stay above the delta neutral, but occasionally drop to the delta neutral, and even sometimes below it, before ricocheting back upwards.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/3ictf87i20b71.png?width=910&format=png&auto=webp&s=eb6dceff875317457c402dbe781a2700bdc76d11)
|
||||
|
||||
Movie Stock 1/4/2021 - 6/18/2021
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/woxnaf6p20b71.png?width=910&format=png&auto=webp&s=6e8d49ecece333cc7d28a2290f23ca8d0db57496)
|
||||
|
||||
BBBY 1/4/2021 - 6/28/2021
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/1netpi6n20b71.png?width=910&format=png&auto=webp&s=aa662200c7effe6332404cd98f7201c3fc14ed1a)
|
||||
|
||||
SPCE 1/4/2021 - 6/28/2021
|
||||
|
||||
*7/16 Expiration Dates*
|
||||
|
||||
I know everyone's getting excited about the 7/16 puts expiring, but I have a few considerations:
|
||||
|
||||
- 47% of all Call OI is expiring this Friday, versus 48% of all put oi. This battle is losing about the same number of bear/bull warriors on each side.
|
||||
|
||||
- On the other hand, 81% of call OI currently has strikes > 1.05 x Close, versus 96% of put oi with strikes < close / 1.05. So we should be keeping a higher percentage of valuable bull warriors, compared to the valuable bear warriors kept by the other side after Friday.
|
||||
|
||||
- The max pain is currently @$180, versus $200 for options expiring next week. I would never trade by the max pain, but it can be a good benchmark, and 11% increase for next week's options is a good sign that the equilibrium is trending up.
|
||||
|
||||
- The IV for the OTM puts (~Put @ -0.25 delta) minus the IV for ATM calls (Call @ ~0.50 delta) has been positive for the last few weeks, indicating higher buying pressure for OTM puts, compared to calls, and has corresponded to our long price drop.
|
||||
|
||||
- However, that difference finally turned negative today, indicating the IV for ATM calls is greater than the IV for the OTM puts, signaling the buying pressure for those OTM puts is easing up this week. Hopefully the bear put's reign of terror is finally subsiding after three.... long... brutal.... weeks....
|
||||
|
||||
Finally, for reasons I would like to keep to myself because it's a big part of my alpha, I am expecting a nice bump in volume in the settlement period this week (Tuesday - Thursday), about an extra 1.1M more than usual, probably on Wednesday, which will result in some buying pressure if we maintain this nice low volume we've been having.
|
||||
|
||||
TLDR: My read of several indicators (both contained in this post, and in my model) is we should start seeing some buying pressure this week, most likely in the option settlement period (Tuesday - Thursday), which will start us on a steady incline upwards.
|
||||
|
||||
*Now it's time to tell you all the boring stuff....*
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/tstg6emk20b71.png?width=650&format=png&auto=webp&s=6e000a848f0399709f49b81739e1ce9ffc3a51a8)
|
||||
|
||||
*fart noises*
|
||||
|
||||
Overview
|
||||
|
||||
In general, all stock indicators boil down to two things - reversion to the mean and momentum. Every trader wants to accurately predict these two forces better than other guy, and if you use different indicators than the other guy, that an give you an 'alpha' in trading if it's a better predictor.
|
||||
|
||||
I make a lot of different indicators, but the two primary ones are the Delta Neutral and Gamma Neutral:
|
||||
|
||||
- Delta Neutral (DN) - This helps identify reversion to the mean, and represents the underlying price that would create a total market delta of 0 across all GME options (all expiration dates) for a given date. In general, it acts like a floor to the underlying price, but if the price drops below the delta neutral, then it tends to shoot back up above that line.
|
||||
|
||||
- This is generally how I trade my model. I watch for stocks that drop below the DN, and buy them, expecting for traders to identify that the stock is underpriced and will revert back to a higher level.
|
||||
|
||||
- Gamma Neutral (GN) and Gamma Maximum (GM) - This helps identify momentum. The GN represents the underlying price that would create a total market gamma of 0 across all GME options (all expiration dates) for a given date, whereas the GM represents the underlying price that would create the maximum gamma across the market.
|
||||
|
||||
- In general, a sudden increase in gamma indicates a sharp upward in momentum that continues until that gamma drops.
|
||||
|
||||
- The GM seems to act like a ceiling, but fun things happen when the underlying crossing that threshold!
|
||||
|
||||
This is my own personal 'alpha' that I developed for my own trading purposes, and am sharing with this community because it's given me back so much. This is not financial advice. I'm just a mathematician that likes to play with options data, and I am not a professional trader.
|
||||
|
||||
*Methodology and Assumptions*
|
||||
|
||||
Delta Neutral
|
||||
|
||||
The Delta Neutral price that creates a total market delta of 0 across all GME options (all expiration dates) for a given date. It can also be though of as the intersection of a supply/demand curve for hedged stocks. See the "Methodology and Assumptions" section for full detail on how I develop this indicator.
|
||||
|
||||
Notes below for general options on how the delta neutral interacts with the underlying price:
|
||||
|
||||
- There is a large influx of call option purchases, because:
|
||||
|
||||
- The call prices get less expensive as the underlying price approaches the delta neutral
|
||||
|
||||
- Stock prices usually rebound/revert back to the mean after large crashes, so the price often rebounds anyways.
|
||||
|
||||
- With the large influx of call volume, market makers have to start buying stocks to delta hedge, which turns the price back around and creates an upward trajectory.
|
||||
|
||||
- Important note that hedgies often hedge with derivatives instead of buying stocks, so there isn't a 1-to-1 relationship between the delta and shares bought/sold by hedge funds.
|
||||
|
||||
- Historically, you can see that GME often bounces off the delta neutral prices during drops. The exception is the February drop. When the underlying goes below the delta neutral price, a lot of pressure builds up that results in a significant increase when that pressure is released.
|
||||
|
||||
- Note this is the primary way that I trade my model. I made a scanner that looks for equities that fall below the delta neutral.
|
||||
|
||||
Gamma Neutral
|
||||
|
||||
The Gamma Neutral price that creates a total market gamma of 0 across all GME options (all expiration dates) for a given date. See the "Methodology and Assumptions" section for full detail on how I develop this indicator.
|
||||
|
||||
General notes below for observations on how this indicator behaves:
|
||||
|
||||
- It acts like support/resistance between the delta neutral and the underlying, and typically bounces around between the two prices for most symbols (like we have seen with GME since April).
|
||||
|
||||
- It also goes crazy in periods of high volatility, as you can see by the very higher spikes.
|
||||
|
||||
- A gamma spike indicates the presence of POTENTAILLY slippery option market conditions, which COULD lead to a gamma squeeze. There were certainly spikes present back in January, but we had a few one-day false starts this last month.
|
||||
|
||||
- They are often triggered by high price movement in a day, which can lead to continue high growth if underlying volume supports it.
|
||||
|
||||
- Gamma spikes can also be triggered by unusual options purchases during the day. These are the one ones to find, because you can often catch the high increase waves before they actually start.
|
||||
|
||||
- If I'm trading this indicator, I often either wait for a gamma spike to continue for 2 days in a row and supported by increased volume. Otherwise, I invest straight away if I find a gamma spike just based on options movement (i.e. no significant underlying increase yet).
|
||||
|
||||
I write my own algorithms to produce the results above. The following lists some key methodology and assumptions I use:
|
||||
|
||||
- I rely on daily options and stock summaries produced by [www.historicaloptionsdata.com](http://www.historicaloptionsdata.com/)
|
||||
|
||||
- For the Implied Volatility (IV), I use the following method:
|
||||
|
||||
- Calculate the raw IV of the mid-point between bid/ask price at close.
|
||||
|
||||
- Calculate a "blend" IV, which represents the IV where the call/put parity holds, i.e. where call delta -- put delta = 1, using the same IV.
|
||||
|
||||
- Smooth the mid-point call/put and blend IV using a gaussian smoothing algorithm with a 20-strike window.
|
||||
|
||||
- Apply the smoothed call/put relativities to the smoothed blended IV curve
|
||||
|
||||
- Fill any missing values with a linear interpolation of the neighboring strikes.
|
||||
|
||||
- Using the final call/put IV estimates described above, I calculate my own Greeks. I like this source if you're interested in the formulas: <https://www.macroption.com/option-greeks-excel>
|
||||
|
||||
- For the total market delta and total market gamma, I rely on the OI x delta and OI x gamma for each strike price.
|
||||
|
||||
- Note that the delta of a call is usually equal to (1 - put delta), so not adjustment is needed to the delta signs when calculating the total market delta.
|
||||
|
||||
- However, the call/put gammas are both positive based on the B-S calculation. If you're calculating the total gamma for a portfolio, or the total market, you have to add the call gamma and subtract the put gamma.
|
||||
|
||||
- To estimate the delta neutral and the gamma neutral, I have an algorithm that relies on the optimization toolbox in Matlab to identify an underlying price that achieve a total market delta and a total market gamma.
|
||||
|
||||
- Note that the IV would change with higher/lower prices for the delta/gamma neutral and the sensitivity tests, but the impact is not significant enough to make a meaningful difference and takes significant processing time to apply the IV curves. However, it is an important simplifying assumption to be aware of.
|
||||
|
||||
- Open Interest (OI) is always lagged one day for options summaries. The OCC releases final open interest on a given day, and it represents the OI for the close of the prior day. Therefore, the OI I get in my summaries on 6/28 does not represent the OI as of close on 6/28. It represents the OI as of close on 6/25. If you see a source like Yahoo give live OI throughout the day, they are only estimates, and their algorithm methodology for estimating the OI based on various price/volume movement is a closely guarded secret. Using the prior day OI is currently a limitation of the data available to me.
|
||||
|
||||
TLDR: My read of several indicators (both contained in this post, and in my model) is we should start seeing some buying pressure this week, most likely in the option settlement period (Tuesday - Thursday), which will start us on a steady incline upwards.
|
@ -0,0 +1,68 @@
|
||||
Delta Neutral Update
|
||||
====================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/yelyah2](https://www.reddit.com/user/yelyah2/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/okfg08/delta_neutral_update/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
[Possible DD 👨🔬](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22Possible%20DD%20%F0%9F%91%A8%E2%80%8D%F0%9F%94%AC%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||
I know today was a rough day, but wanted to share a quick update of what I'm seeing with my indicators for those that are interested.
|
||||
|
||||
[Prior post if you need help on terminology/methods/assumptions](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/ojevhv/knock_knock_knockin_on_delta_neutrals_door/)
|
||||
|
||||
[Example of the sub DN life cycle](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/ok4chd/special_edition_down_under_the_delta_neutral/)
|
||||
|
||||
Updated chart below:
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/c3hc9pw249b71.png?width=910&format=png&auto=webp&s=2522625750a354aa817aa5a25b06e722a3dc0fe6)
|
||||
|
||||
GME 1/4/2021 - 7/14/2021
|
||||
|
||||
Quick notes:
|
||||
|
||||
- Today was obviously a bad day, and continued the downward trajectory
|
||||
|
||||
- The start of the downward trend for the DN is not an optimistic indicator for an immediate turn-around. It shows that the options buying/selling/hedging is supporting the underlying's decrease.
|
||||
|
||||
- OTM Put IV increased relative to the ATM Call IV, indicating buying pressure for OTM puts, indicating a bearish bias on the options side.
|
||||
|
||||
- The OTM Put IV increase is also supported by relatively high put volume today (54%), compared to the normal 30% - 40% puts. The increase in put purchases also helps drive the price down.
|
||||
|
||||
- The good news is the 30-day ATM IV tanked for calls, dropping from ~1.3 yesterday to 1.09 today, and came with a 50% discount on those 30-day ATM call prices.
|
||||
|
||||
My best guess is GME will continue to decrease until the put buying pressure wears off and the stock stabilizes. At that point, I expect an influx of call buyers tempted by the discount we're starting, which will help create buying pressure/a reversal.
|
||||
|
||||
I thought I would quickly show a few other stocks that made trips below the DN:
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/m294wci469b71.png?width=910&format=png&auto=webp&s=d721c37f86e85ceaebac67399d59091fed2152c4)
|
||||
|
||||
TSLA 2/5/2020 - 6/28/2021
|
||||
|
||||
Here, the pandemic slump sent TSLA down below the DN, and its drop was supported by a decrease in the DN, so it took time for TSLA to recover.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/jr3gaepg69b71.png?width=910&format=png&auto=webp&s=14ff90ce334bc853e2873f402674e8a03f29f9f4)
|
||||
|
||||
ZM 2/5/2020 - 6/28/2021
|
||||
|
||||
ZM obviously didn't have a pandemic slump, and it may have briefly passed below the DN before bouncing back on its trajectory upwards, but as it decreased, and was supported by the DN decrease, the priced bounced beneath the DN during the decrease, until the DN finally supported the increase in June.
|
||||
|
||||
Now a few examples where the DN held relatively steady while the price dipped beneath, and helped the price bounce back quickly:
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/jlglhlbg89b71.png?width=910&format=png&auto=webp&s=ac1f52daee86b545bd03a017dba99eec6ddb9baa)
|
||||
|
||||
AMD 2/5/2020 - 6/28/2021
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/50e0mfw289b71.png?width=910&format=png&auto=webp&s=2365452ae4da3cf849cf4c68b9e01d05bc134d61)
|
||||
|
||||
CAT 2/5/2020 - 6/28/2021
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/s9by02t789b71.png?width=910&format=png&auto=webp&s=2bdf52e1aed2bd6a911f3cfa91202cc4cf2f4337)
|
||||
|
||||
CHWY 2/5/2020 - 6/28/2021
|
||||
|
||||
TLDR: GME could continue its downward trajectory, and my indicators are showing SLIGHT support for that drop, but the slope is very small (3% decrease in the DN this week and a 4% decrease in the Max Gamma). There are good indicators that option buyers will be tempted by the current discounted call options, but my guess is they will wait for the price to stabilize before jumping in. We'll probably have at least one flat trading day before we see investors coming back in.
|
||||
|
||||
*Disclaimer: I'm just a mathematician that likes to play with options data and builds models to trade for a hobby. I have no experience trading professionally or offering any advice to anyone. This is just one indicator for one type of price movement, and there are many other indicators that can help you make investment decisions.*
|
@ -0,0 +1,286 @@
|
||||
Special Edition: Down Under the Delta Neutral
|
||||
=============================================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/yelyah2](https://www.reddit.com/user/yelyah2/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/ok4chd/special_edition_down_under_the_delta_neutral/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
[Possible DD 👨🔬](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22Possible%20DD%20%F0%9F%91%A8%E2%80%8D%F0%9F%94%AC%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||
Here we go, here we go! We are under the Delta Neutral (DN).... I repeat... we are under the Delta Neutral...
|
||||
|
||||
This is where I trade this indicator, and we are in my world now.... the Upside Down DN World....
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/7cylj5x1k6b71.png?width=1195&format=png&auto=webp&s=ff5babd2fac7b7b66abf0a416ca2e2484c10f7f4)
|
||||
|
||||
do do doooo.....
|
||||
|
||||
I've been showing you the log-based 10 graphs lately, because nothing super exciting has been happening, but here's a graph showing the DN up close and personal, showing we closed under the DN yesterday!
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/9ftbjem0k6b71.png?width=910&format=png&auto=webp&s=0916d523cf593eaf2737a62a5f8e8155e0ec4270)
|
||||
|
||||
GME 1/6/2021 - 7/13/2021
|
||||
|
||||
For Part I of this post, let me take you all the way back to FEBRUARY 2021.... the last time it happened...
|
||||
|
||||
PART 1 - THE FEBRUARY TRIP BELOW
|
||||
|
||||
It was a dark time... money lost... sanity drained... FUD everywhere... We all clung onto our hopes, DD, and each other. We all have our memories of that time long ago, and mine are held through the lens of the DN World.
|
||||
|
||||
Let's see what happened:
|
||||
|
||||
- First, the price tanks. Pick your reason why. We aren't covering that now.
|
||||
|
||||
- As the price tanks, hedgies are selling off loads of shares based on their OI, and helping the price continue to drop hard.
|
||||
|
||||
- As the price drops below the delta neutral, the IV is suppressed very quickly, as shown in the graph below. It also tanks from ~10.0 to bouncing around 1.0-3.0 within a WEEK
|
||||
|
||||
- Check what happens when the price tanks in March. The IV has an initial spike, the settled into a 2.0-4.0 range for FIVE weeks before settling down further.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/vonx8y6zj6b71.png?width=910&format=png&auto=webp&s=278e95650859b24575f3a813ca324a89b8852849)
|
||||
|
||||
GME 1/4/2021 - 7/13/2021
|
||||
|
||||
- The IV also tanks under the DN, and ATM prices suddenly go on discount. The 30-day ATM prices go from $130-$155 at the peak (~40% of Underlying Price), to $6-$11 by 2/5 (~10% of Underlying Price).
|
||||
|
||||
- Call Prices are often lower than Put Prices at this time. Call prices look tasty to investors, because... STONKS GO UP! This is why stocks generally sit on top of the delta neutral. There are generally more call buyers than put buyers.
|
||||
|
||||
Quick palette cleanser before we move on?
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/qvbe41sxj6b71.png?width=656&format=png&auto=webp&s=8a659858dc3d25f1eb699a17dd7bedf8399b22fc)
|
||||
|
||||
yummmm
|
||||
|
||||
Ok, let's continue....
|
||||
|
||||
- By the crash, the put OI is monstrously huge. I know there's a lot of debate around this right now. My personal opinion is it's a mix of the following:
|
||||
|
||||
- Come on.... the price went from ~$10 to almost $500 in a couple of months. People thought this thing was going to crash back down after it squeezed. It was a safe bet to buy puts on it. Not everything against GME is nefarious...
|
||||
|
||||
- I said not EVERYTHING.... There is some craaazy OTM put volume/OI during the January squeeze, that correspond to increase in those put prices, and the volume / OI ratio is waaaayy high. Again... personal conjecture here... but what if Citadel HF was selling those puts to Citadel MM, and Citadel MM executed their OTM positions, effectively forfeiting their premium. What does this do? It allows Citadel MM to give a cash injection to Citadel HF on the open market, gets around their firewall separating the two entities, and can take advantage of Citadel MM special privileges.
|
||||
|
||||
- I've heard all kinds of theories on other strategies for those OTM put OI's, and for me, it always comes back to: * No, they're not going to do any strategy that involves buying a ton of stocks (*cough* married puts *cough*), because the point is they shorted it a ton, the stocks are hard to come by, and it's really expensive to do. * Who's buying those teeny Puts? There are a lot of reasons someone would want to sell those puts, which is what most explanation boils down to. Hell.... I'd love for someone to buy a load of $0.50 puts from me, but seriously... who's buying them? That's how I came to the theory above. * Feel like there's going to be some fights over this, but let's be honest... no one actually knows the answer to this question, it's all theories at this point.
|
||||
|
||||
- The Call OI has now dropped from 47% on 1/22 to 14% by 2/1. However, once the price drops under the DN, the Call OI starts building up fast, as in 35% - 66% increases within each week, while the put OI only increases around 0% - 2% each week, which makes the Call OI bangs up to 25% by the February bounce.
|
||||
|
||||
Ready to find out what that fast build-up of Call OI did?
|
||||
|
||||
or do you want another palette cleanser?
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/wbzkwf9wj6b71.png?width=760&format=png&auto=webp&s=e0f5ac2937910087161c4c02f84440736752e0bd)
|
||||
|
||||
raaaawwwrrr
|
||||
|
||||
Sorry... those come with the territory....
|
||||
|
||||
- Ok, so as all those people are buying up calls, the total market delta is going up, and hedgies are buying up more and more stocks because of it.
|
||||
|
||||
- If you recall a few posts ago, I talked to you about the build-up of the total market delta. If you don't remember, [here's my post](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/o9qb4n/delta_neutral_update_any_meaningful_underlying/), or check the bottom for the details.
|
||||
|
||||
The graph below summaries the total market delta share equivalents (dark blue) versus the underlying close price (green).
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/vqfw7iuuj6b71.png?width=909&format=png&auto=webp&s=d81c3c58fe8eb0b3681407952987199d6bc330f3)
|
||||
|
||||
GME Total Market Delta Share Equivalent versus Underlying Close
|
||||
|
||||
You'll notice that total market delta increased significantly BEFORE the January and February/March squeezes. This helped to contribute to the buying pressure to push GME upwards.
|
||||
|
||||
Ohhh and who do we have here? It's our good friend, GAMMA!!
|
||||
|
||||
High ATM Gamma Factors makes everything nice and squeezy. Those factors increase right before significant increases, as shown in the table below.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/hwhh2hbtj6b71.png?width=910&format=png&auto=webp&s=86f8529521c1bf8ed2ce170fd349bf62618af04a)
|
||||
|
||||
GME Close/DN/ATM Gamma Factors
|
||||
|
||||
Then once the Underlying Close Price hits the Gamma Maximum point and...
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/c8nc9y4pj6b71.png?width=2598&format=png&auto=webp&s=3f2a8b7c1074a129bc4c912dbe0bcec665471779)
|
||||
|
||||
BOOOOMMM!!!
|
||||
|
||||
Ok, so all kinds of things happened in February, but I wanted to walk you through the general Life Cycle of stocks under the DN, using GME as an example.
|
||||
|
||||
TLDR - Part 1:
|
||||
|
||||
The life cycle of a stock under the DN generally consists of the following parts:
|
||||
|
||||
- Underlying price drops below the DN
|
||||
|
||||
- IV decreases
|
||||
|
||||
- Call/Put prices decrease
|
||||
|
||||
- Stock price just dropped + stonks go up + calls look tasty = higher call buying
|
||||
|
||||
- Options sellers buy up stocks to hedge
|
||||
|
||||
- If you're lucky, your good friend Gamma shows up
|
||||
|
||||
- Bing, bang, boom, you're back over the DN.
|
||||
|
||||
PART 2 - STARTING THE JOURNEY BELOW
|
||||
|
||||
As we start on this adventure below the DN together, just remember that we are in this together and to always pay the ferryman.
|
||||
|
||||
Let's quickly remind ourselves what's happening now:
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/yttusvynj6b71.png?width=910&format=png&auto=webp&s=dbd870b866a4c302612bd3bce967c6c9f1a7e9fe)
|
||||
|
||||
- The price closed at $180.06 yesterday, compared to the DN of $188.
|
||||
|
||||
- The ATM put volatility dropped from 1.2 to 1.09 (lowest since 5/11), and I suspect the ATM call volatility will follow soon.
|
||||
|
||||
- The ATM option prices dropped around 5% today
|
||||
|
||||
- The total market delta equivalent shares is dropping with the price, and accelerating the drop as option sellers and selling off more and more shares
|
||||
|
||||
- The ATM gamma factor is low right now, and nothing particularly interesting is going on with the other gamma indicators
|
||||
|
||||
How long will this take?
|
||||
|
||||
- Retail could storm in at pre-market and buy the dip to bring it out straight away, and it would have nothing to do with these indicators.
|
||||
|
||||
- If hedging controls the volume, then it usually reverses in 1-3 days. When I trade this indicator, I plan for returns to be worth holding for 2 weeks.
|
||||
|
||||
- It is not common for stocks to sit under the DN for as long as GME did back in February, but we all know GME is a special one!
|
||||
|
||||
Watch the following to signal a reversal:
|
||||
|
||||
- A drop in IV/option premiums
|
||||
|
||||
- High call % volume/OI
|
||||
|
||||
- I'll be watching the other indicators, and will report anything interesting
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/2telmucmj6b71.png?width=533&format=png&auto=webp&s=d8566faa09d186ce9b64db87c8a9f021a2a575eb)
|
||||
|
||||
To the moon for us all!
|
||||
|
||||
TLDR - Part 2:
|
||||
|
||||
- Hold tight
|
||||
|
||||
- This part is fun
|
||||
|
||||
- Watch options if you want
|
||||
|
||||
*Now it's time to tell you all the boring stuff....*
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/bm1l5jikj6b71.png?width=1200&format=png&auto=webp&s=9a704e70bacf00d1f0fafeb6f144a1faf56b47fd)
|
||||
|
||||
wah waahhhh
|
||||
|
||||
Overview
|
||||
|
||||
In general, all stock indicators boil down to two things - reversion to the mean and momentum. Every trader wants to accurately predict these two forces better than other guy, and if you use different indicators than the other guy, that an give you an 'alpha' in trading if it's a better predictor.
|
||||
|
||||
I make a lot of different indicators, but the two primary ones are the Delta Neutral and Gamma Neutral:
|
||||
|
||||
- Delta Neutral (DN) - This helps identify reversion to the mean, and represents the underlying price that would create a total market delta of 0 across all GME options (all expiration dates) for a given date. In general, it acts like a floor to the underlying price, but if the price drops below the delta neutral, then it tends to shoot back up above that line.
|
||||
|
||||
- This is generally how I trade my model. I watch for stocks that drop below the DN, and buy them, expecting for traders to identify that the stock is underpriced and will revert back to a higher level.
|
||||
|
||||
- Gamma Neutral (GN) and Gamma Maximum (GM) - This helps identify momentum. The GN represents the underlying price that would create a total market gamma of 0 across all GME options (all expiration dates) for a given date, whereas the GM represents the underlying price that would create the maximum gamma across the market.
|
||||
|
||||
- In general, a sudden increase in gamma indicates a sharp upward in momentum that continues until that gamma drops.
|
||||
|
||||
- The GM seems to act like a ceiling, but fun things happen when the underlying crossing that threshold!
|
||||
|
||||
This is my own personal 'alpha' that I developed for my own trading purposes, and am sharing with this community because it's given me back so much. This is not financial advice. I'm just a mathematician that likes to play with options data, and I am not a professional trader.
|
||||
|
||||
*Methodology and Assumptions*
|
||||
|
||||
Delta
|
||||
|
||||
The Delta of an option represents the expected change to an option's price based on a $1 change in the security's underlying price. For example, if the GME underlying price is at $100,000,000 and a GME $102,000,000 strike call has a delta of 0.2, then that call option price will increase by $0.2 if the GME underlying price moves up to $100,000,001. Note that the price is also affected by gamma so will actually be higher than the $0.2 price increase estimated by delta, which will be covered later.
|
||||
|
||||
Delta hedging is a trading strategy employed by market makers (MM's) to minimalize the directional risk associated with price movements in the underlying security. Traditionally, you can think of a MM buying 20 (0.2 x 100) stocks of the underlying security if the price increases by $1 (using the example above). However, it's important to note that hedge funds often use other derivatives to hedge, not just buying/selling stocks because it requires less capital to do so. However, these indicators can be used as a directional proxy for some of the MM behavior as the underlying price increases/decreases.
|
||||
|
||||
The total market delta share equivalent represents the sum of delta x OI across all strikes/expiration prices in a given trading day. I will say it one more time, hedge funds are not actually holding this number of shares on a given day to hedge. They often hedge with other market derivatives. However, it can give us an indicator for hedge funds buying/selling underlying equity relativities.
|
||||
|
||||
Delta Neutral
|
||||
|
||||
The Delta Neutral price that creates a total market delta of 0 across all GME options (all expiration dates) for a given date. It can also be though of as the intersection of a supply/demand curve for hedged stocks. See the "Methodology and Assumptions" section for full detail on how I develop this indicator.
|
||||
|
||||
Notes below for general options on how the delta neutral interacts with the underlying price:
|
||||
|
||||
- There is a large influx of call option purchases, because:
|
||||
|
||||
- The call prices get less expensive as the underlying price approaches the delta neutral
|
||||
|
||||
- Stock prices usually rebound/revert back to the mean after large crashes, so the price often rebounds anyways.
|
||||
|
||||
- With the large influx of call volume, market makers have to start buying stocks to delta hedge, which turns the price back around and creates an upward trajectory.
|
||||
|
||||
- Important note that hedgies often hedge with derivatives instead of buying stocks, so there isn't a 1-to-1 relationship between the delta and shares bought/sold by hedge funds.
|
||||
|
||||
- Historically, you can see that GME often bounces off the delta neutral prices during drops. The exception is the February drop. When the underlying goes below the delta neutral price, a lot of pressure builds up that results in a significant increase when that pressure is released.
|
||||
|
||||
- Note this is the primary way that I trade my model. I made a scanner that looks for equities that fall below the delta neutral.
|
||||
|
||||
Gamma
|
||||
|
||||
The Gamma of an option represents the rate of change of the Delta of an option with respect to a $1 underlying price movement. From our example above, if the GME underlying price is at $100,000,000 and a GME $102,000,000 strike call has a delta of 0.2 and a gamma of 0.05, then that call option price would actually increase by $0.25 (0.2 + 0.05) if the GME underlying price moves up to $100,000,001.
|
||||
|
||||
MM also hedge against gamma risk, but the impact of buying/selling securities to hedge is often much lower than the impact of delta hedging (also remember that they use derivatives to hedge too). However, you are probably familiar with gamma because of the "gamma squeeze" that happened back in January. A gamma squeeze happens when the underlying stock price begins to go up very quickly in a short period of time. This forces more buying activity from rapidly increasing deltas/hedging, which continues to inflate the price.
|
||||
|
||||
Gamma Neutral/Maximum
|
||||
|
||||
The Gamma Neutral price that creates a total market gamma of 0 across all GME options (all expiration dates) for a given date. The Gamma Maximum price creates the maximum total market gamma across all GME options.
|
||||
|
||||
General notes below for observations on how the Gamma Neutral indicator behaves:
|
||||
|
||||
- It acts like support/resistance between the delta neutral and the underlying, and typically bounces around between the two prices for most symbols (like we have seen with GME since April).
|
||||
|
||||
- It also goes crazy in periods of high volatility, as you can see by the very higher spikes.
|
||||
|
||||
- A gamma spike indicates the presence of POTENTAILLY slippery option market conditions, which COULD lead to a gamma squeeze. There were certainly spikes present back in January, but we had a few one-day false starts this last month.
|
||||
|
||||
- They are often triggered by high price movement in a day, which can lead to continue high growth if underlying volume supports it.
|
||||
|
||||
- Gamma spikes can also be triggered by unusual options purchases during the day. These are the one ones to find, because you can often catch the high increase waves before they actually start.
|
||||
|
||||
- If I'm trading this indicator, I often either wait for a gamma spike to continue for 2 days in a row and supported by increased volume. Otherwise, I invest straight away if I find a gamma spike just based on options movement (i.e. no significant underlying increase yet).
|
||||
|
||||
General notes below for observations on how the Gamma Maximum indicator behaves:
|
||||
|
||||
- It generally acts like a ceiling for the underlying stock value
|
||||
|
||||
- However, when the stock breaks through the gamma maximum, fun things happen!
|
||||
|
||||
Methodology
|
||||
|
||||
I write my own algorithms to produce the results above. The following lists some key methodology and assumptions I use:
|
||||
|
||||
- I rely on daily options and stock summaries produced by [www.historicaloptionsdata.com](http://www.historicaloptionsdata.com/)
|
||||
|
||||
- For the Implied Volatility (IV), I use the following method:
|
||||
|
||||
- Calculate the raw IV of the mid-point between bid/ask price at close.
|
||||
|
||||
- Calculate a "blend" IV, which represents the IV where the call/put parity holds, i.e. where call delta -- put delta = 1, using the same IV.
|
||||
|
||||
- Smooth the mid-point call/put and blend IV using a gaussian smoothing algorithm with a 20-strike window.
|
||||
|
||||
- Apply the smoothed call/put relativities to the smoothed blended IV curve
|
||||
|
||||
- Fill any missing values with a linear interpolation of the neighboring strikes.
|
||||
|
||||
- Using the final call/put IV estimates described above, I calculate my own Greeks. I like this source if you're interested in the formulas: <https://www.macroption.com/option-greeks-excel>
|
||||
|
||||
- For the total market delta and total market gamma, I rely on the OI x delta and OI x gamma for each strike price.
|
||||
|
||||
- Note that the delta of a call is usually equal to (1 - put delta), so not adjustment is needed to the delta signs when calculating the total market delta.
|
||||
|
||||
- However, the call/put gammas are both positive based on the B-S calculation. If you're calculating the total gamma for a portfolio, or the total market, you have to add the call gamma and subtract the put gamma.
|
||||
|
||||
- To estimate the delta neutral and the gamma neutral, I have an algorithm that relies on the optimization toolbox in Matlab to identify an underlying price that achieve a total market delta and a total market gamma.
|
||||
|
||||
- Note that the IV would change with higher/lower prices for the delta/gamma neutral and the sensitivity tests, but the impact is not significant enough to make a meaningful difference and takes significant processing time to apply the IV curves. However, it is an important simplifying assumption to be aware of.
|
||||
|
||||
- Open Interest (OI) is always lagged one day for options summaries. The OCC releases final open interest on a given day, and it represents the OI for the close of the prior day. Therefore, the OI I get in my summaries on 6/28 does not represent the OI as of close on 6/28. It represents the OI as of close on 6/25. If you see a source like Yahoo give live OI throughout the day, they are only estimates, and their algorithm methodology for estimating the OI based on various price/volume movement is a closely guarded secret. Using the prior day OI is currently a limitation of the data available to me.
|
||||
|
||||
*Disclaimer: With the recent debate on the sub, I've decided to label my posts as "Possible DD" until someone is able to peer review my work, and independently replicate it. So far, my only proof has been how it works in the field, which means it should not be blindly taken as truth. I think every writer should hold themselves to their own standards, and no one else's. Every aspect of my work is peer reviewed in real life, so this is my own standard. It's also the responsibility of every reader to judge the quality of content they read, and don't take anything at face value. To the moon for us all!*
|
@ -0,0 +1,164 @@
|
||||
Delta Neutral Update: Coming up for Air!
|
||||
========================================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/yelyah2](https://www.reddit.com/user/yelyah2/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/oo5c7t/delta_neutral_update_coming_up_for_air/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
[Possible DD 👨🔬](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22Possible%20DD%20%F0%9F%91%A8%E2%80%8D%F0%9F%94%AC%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||
All - it looks like this could've been a quick trip underneath the Delta Neutral.
|
||||
|
||||
TLDR: Brace yourself for the possibility of hitting the $184 DN mark a couple times before it rebounds back over the DN.
|
||||
|
||||
*Delta/Gamma Neutral Graphs*
|
||||
|
||||
Here's an update to my graph showing the Close Price (green), delta neutral (blue), gamma neutral (orange) and gamma maximum (red). Log-based 10 scale below so you can see the gamma spikes in all their glory!
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/0wrvx6fa3ec71.png?width=910&format=png&auto=webp&s=a46bb78da6a63bb09c17d5c0959697386858693e)
|
||||
|
||||
GME 1/4/2021 - 7/19/2021
|
||||
|
||||
Log based 10 scale to give you a high-level overview
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/nyhliedc3ec71.png?width=910&format=png&auto=webp&s=635ff082bad8e984c2e0ff66efb13e612a24ef53)
|
||||
|
||||
GME 1/4/2021 - 7/19/2021 - Log Based 10
|
||||
|
||||
Quick Background
|
||||
|
||||
My work is built on the idea that the market is largely unpredictable, but one particular kind of behavior is certain - hedgies gonna hedge. It's written into their algorithms. Specifically, they like to delta hedge and gamma hedge. This work tries to profit on this one particular type of buying/selling behavior. If you're lost, please refer to the detailed data dictionary, methodology and assumptions section at the bottom.
|
||||
|
||||
Quick Notes
|
||||
|
||||
Key Points:
|
||||
|
||||
- The Delta Neutral (DN) is currently at $184.
|
||||
|
||||
- Last February, GME was deep under the DN for a couple weeks, which built up a lot of pressure and contributed to its rebound upwards.
|
||||
|
||||
- This trip under the DN only lasted a couple days, so the rebound may not be as violent.
|
||||
|
||||
- I also want to warn you that it may tap against $184 a couple times before rebounding. A few examples below.
|
||||
|
||||
As you can see for Roku below, the underlying close (green) had definitive rebounds back above the DN (dark blue) in March/April, but in May, you can see that it tapped against its DN three times before pushing over.
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/q13ak3jz4ec71.png?width=910&format=png&auto=webp&s=f59022d187c8e1cab9892e6ef7a89c8d5b9f22f7)
|
||||
|
||||
ROKU 1/4/2021 - 6/17/2021
|
||||
|
||||
Hard to say what the secret ingredient is for what exactly contributes to the definitive push over the DN versus a couple tests first, but it's likely just some good ol' fashion momentum.
|
||||
|
||||
Here's hoping we decisively push through today!
|
||||
|
||||
Here are a couple options tid-bits for you before I sign off:
|
||||
|
||||
- The 7/16 expirations did help with the call %, which currently sits at 26%, compared to 25% on 2/16 and 22% last Monday.
|
||||
|
||||
- The key part here is the comparison to last Monday, because historically call buyers have been predominately buying cheaper calls for the next expiration date, hoping to get lucky and catch the next MOASS, so historically, there is a big drop in call % between Mondays/Friday, then slowly builds-up during the week.
|
||||
|
||||
- We haven't had a Monday call % this high since 1/25!! That Monday had a 37% call OI, so were not quite at the same level now.
|
||||
|
||||
- Yesterday, 69% of all volume was for this next expiration date, and 64% of that volume were for calls, so hoping we push the call OI up!
|
||||
|
||||
- GME IV/prices are still relatively cheap, so hoping that will lead to more call buyers
|
||||
|
||||
- The overall put IV is still higher than the call IV, indicating higher put buying pressure
|
||||
|
||||
- Similarly, the OTM put IV (-0.25 delta) is still higher than the ATM call IV (0.5 delta), which indicates higher OTM buying pressure, so we're not out of the woods yet.
|
||||
|
||||
- I've seen a lot of talk about gamma squeezes, and I don't think we're anywhere close to one. Last January, the ATM gamma was between 0.07 - 0.18 prior to the squeeze. Last Friday, we were at 0.0004, and there was an uptick up to 0.02 yesterday. We'll see if the upward trend continues.
|
||||
|
||||
TLDR: Brace yourself for the possibility of hitting the $184 DN mark a couple times before it rebounds back over the DN.
|
||||
|
||||
Overview
|
||||
|
||||
In general, all stock indicators boil down to two things - reversion to the mean and momentum. Every trader wants to accurately predict these two forces better than other guy, and if you use different indicators than the other guy, that an give you an 'alpha' in trading if it's a better predictor.
|
||||
|
||||
I make a lot of different indicators, but the two primary ones are the Delta Neutral and Gamma Neutral:
|
||||
|
||||
- Delta Neutral (DN) - This helps identify reversion to the mean, and represents the underlying price that would create a total market delta of 0 across all GME options (all expiration dates) for a given date. In general, it acts like a floor to the underlying price, but if the price drops below the delta neutral, then it tends to shoot back up above that line.
|
||||
|
||||
- This is generally how I trade my model. I watch for stocks that drop below the DN, and buy them, expecting for traders to identify that the stock is underpriced and will revert back to a higher level.
|
||||
|
||||
- Gamma Neutral (GN) and Gamma Maximum (GM) - This helps identify momentum. The GN represents the underlying price that would create a total market gamma of 0 across all GME options (all expiration dates) for a given date, whereas the GM represents the underlying price that would create the maximum gamma across the market.
|
||||
|
||||
- In general, a sudden increase in gamma indicates a sharp upward in momentum that continues until that gamma drops.
|
||||
|
||||
- The GM seems to act like a ceiling, but fun things happen when the underlying crossing that threshold!
|
||||
|
||||
This is my own personal 'alpha' that I developed for my own trading purposes, and am sharing with this community because it's given me back so much. This is not financial advice. I'm just a mathematician that likes to play with options data, and I am not a professional trader.
|
||||
|
||||
*Methodology and Assumptions*
|
||||
|
||||
Delta Neutral
|
||||
|
||||
The Delta Neutral price that creates a total market delta of 0 across all GME options (all expiration dates) for a given date. It can also be though of as the intersection of a supply/demand curve for hedged stocks. See the "Methodology and Assumptions" section for full detail on how I develop this indicator.
|
||||
|
||||
Notes below for general options on how the delta neutral interacts with the underlying price:
|
||||
|
||||
- There is a large influx of call option purchases, because:
|
||||
|
||||
- The call prices get less expensive as the underlying price approaches the delta neutral
|
||||
|
||||
- Stock prices usually rebound/revert back to the mean after large crashes, so the price often rebounds anyways.
|
||||
|
||||
- With the large influx of call volume, market makers have to start buying stocks to delta hedge, which turns the price back around and creates an upward trajectory.
|
||||
|
||||
- Important note that hedgies often hedge with derivatives instead of buying stocks, so there isn't a 1-to-1 relationship between the delta and shares bought/sold by hedge funds.
|
||||
|
||||
- Historically, you can see that GME often bounces off the delta neutral prices during drops. The exception is the February drop. When the underlying goes below the delta neutral price, a lot of pressure builds up that results in a significant increase when that pressure is released.
|
||||
|
||||
- Note this is the primary way that I trade my model. I made a scanner that looks for equities that fall below the delta neutral.
|
||||
|
||||
Gamma Neutral
|
||||
|
||||
The Gamma Neutral price that creates a total market gamma of 0 across all GME options (all expiration dates) for a given date. See the "Methodology and Assumptions" section for full detail on how I develop this indicator.
|
||||
|
||||
General notes below for observations on how this indicator behaves:
|
||||
|
||||
- It acts like support/resistance between the delta neutral and the underlying, and typically bounces around between the two prices for most symbols (like we have seen with GME since April).
|
||||
|
||||
- It also goes crazy in periods of high volatility, as you can see by the very higher spikes.
|
||||
|
||||
- A gamma spike indicates the presence of POTENTAILLY slippery option market conditions, which COULD lead to a gamma squeeze. There were certainly spikes present back in January, but we had a few one-day false starts this last month.
|
||||
|
||||
- They are often triggered by high price movement in a day, which can lead to continue high growth if underlying volume supports it.
|
||||
|
||||
- Gamma spikes can also be triggered by unusual options purchases during the day. These are the one ones to find, because you can often catch the high increase waves before they actually start.
|
||||
|
||||
- If I'm trading this indicator, I often either wait for a gamma spike to continue for 2 days in a row and supported by increased volume. Otherwise, I invest straight away if I find a gamma spike just based on options movement (i.e. no significant underlying increase yet).
|
||||
|
||||
I write my own algorithms to produce the results above. The following lists some key methodology and assumptions I use:
|
||||
|
||||
- I rely on daily options and stock summaries produced by [www.historicaloptionsdata.com](http://www.historicaloptionsdata.com/)
|
||||
|
||||
- For the Implied Volatility (IV), I use the following method:
|
||||
|
||||
- Calculate the raw IV of the mid-point between bid/ask price at close.
|
||||
|
||||
- Calculate a "blend" IV, which represents the IV where the call/put parity holds, i.e. where call delta -- put delta = 1, using the same IV.
|
||||
|
||||
- Smooth the mid-point call/put and blend IV using a gaussian smoothing algorithm with a 20-strike window.
|
||||
|
||||
- Apply the smoothed call/put relativities to the smoothed blended IV curve
|
||||
|
||||
- Fill any missing values with a linear interpolation of the neighboring strikes.
|
||||
|
||||
- Using the final call/put IV estimates described above, I calculate my own Greeks. I like this source if you're interested in the formulas: <https://www.macroption.com/option-greeks-excel>
|
||||
|
||||
- For the total market delta and total market gamma, I rely on the OI x delta and OI x gamma for each strike price.
|
||||
|
||||
- Note that the delta of a call is usually equal to (1 - put delta), so not adjustment is needed to the delta signs when calculating the total market delta.
|
||||
|
||||
- However, the call/put gammas are both positive based on the B-S calculation. If you're calculating the total gamma for a portfolio, or the total market, you have to add the call gamma and subtract the put gamma.
|
||||
|
||||
- To estimate the delta neutral and the gamma neutral, I have an algorithm that relies on the optimization toolbox in Matlab to identify an underlying price that achieve a total market delta and a total market gamma.
|
||||
|
||||
- Note that the IV would change with higher/lower prices for the delta/gamma neutral and the sensitivity tests, but the impact is not significant enough to make a meaningful difference and takes significant processing time to apply the IV curves. However, it is an important simplifying assumption to be aware of.
|
||||
|
||||
- Open Interest (OI) is always lagged one day for options summaries. The OCC releases final open interest on a given day, and it represents the OI for the close of the prior day. Therefore, the OI I get in my summaries on 6/28 does not represent the OI as of close on 6/28. It represents the OI as of close on 6/25. If you see a source like Yahoo give live OI throughout the day, they are only estimates, and their algorithm methodology for estimating the OI based on various price/volume movement is a closely guarded secret. Using the prior day OI is currently a limitation of the data available to me.
|
||||
|
||||
*Disclaimer: I'm just a mathematician that likes to play with options data and builds models to trade for a hobby. I have no experience trading professionally or offering any advice to anyone. This is just one indicator for one type of price movement, and there are many other indicators that can help you make investment decisions.*
|
@ -0,0 +1,154 @@
|
||||
Delta Neutral Update: Blowing Past the DN!
|
||||
==========================================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/yelyah2](https://www.reddit.com/user/yelyah2/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/ooc25b/delta_neutral_update_blowing_past_the_dn/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
[Possible DD 👨🔬](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22Possible%20DD%20%F0%9F%91%A8%E2%80%8D%F0%9F%94%AC%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||
TLDR: We blew past the DN today, and now we have a higher probability of continuing this upward momentum.
|
||||
|
||||
Recap:
|
||||
|
||||
[On 7/13, I called out that we were about to hit the DN, and it will probably mean we'll bounce off it, like we have in the past.](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/ojevhv/knock_knock_knockin_on_delta_neutrals_door/)
|
||||
|
||||
[But we didn't bounce off it, instead we sunk underneath it for the first time since February. I gave an overview of life under the DN.](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/ok4chd/special_edition_down_under_the_delta_neutral/)
|
||||
|
||||
[Today, it looked like we would blow past the DN, and I warned that sometimes stocks bounce off it like a ceiling a couple times before going over.](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/oo5c7t/delta_neutral_update_coming_up_for_air/)
|
||||
|
||||
Today - I'm happy to report that GME was given a choice.... accept the DN as the ceiling like the weakling or push through it... GME made its choice:
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/9yulxdq7tfc71.png?width=268&format=png&auto=webp&s=3af5256082e71d35391525a3536d082c6625e440)
|
||||
|
||||
yessssss......
|
||||
|
||||
And to that I say....
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/bm3i1pfetfc71.png?width=537&format=png&auto=webp&s=071c422f39c69fc121b2c1ea9bfd49cb8c563f68)
|
||||
|
||||
Updated graph below, showing the Close Price (green), delta neutral (blue), gamma neutral (orange) and gamma maximum (red). Log-based 10 scale below so you can see the gamma spikes in all their glory!
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/s2vt0oigtfc71.png?width=910&format=png&auto=webp&s=bf4afc39cdaa6adddfa9ef229dfc953a62f7c94f)
|
||||
|
||||
GME 1/4/2021 - 7/20/2021
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/pnui6sxwtfc71.png?width=910&format=png&auto=webp&s=b750bbb248fb84e25e04e11f1008ef4f6563403a)
|
||||
|
||||
GME 1/4/2021 - 7/20/2021 - log based 10
|
||||
|
||||
Yes, there is a chance it will go back down, bounce of the DN (currently at $185), go back beneath and start all over. However, there is a higher probability that it will keep going up at this point.
|
||||
|
||||
Our next target should be the gamma max point of $241. If we get there, then we should have the max amount of gamma to....
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/tvqppvsoufc71.png?width=1920&format=png&auto=webp&s=bc0ded79f84838e8a0176788f7443f3fc8611869)
|
||||
|
||||
BOOOOOOM!!!
|
||||
|
||||
Here are a couple options tid-bits for you before I sign off:
|
||||
|
||||
- The 7/16 expirations did help with the call %, which is currently up to 28%. Highest it's been since 1/26/2021!
|
||||
|
||||
- 68% of volume was for calls today, so should help push that call OI higher!
|
||||
|
||||
- GME IV/prices are getting higher, so expecting the options buying to cool off a bit.
|
||||
|
||||
- Note that I don't think we're anywhere close to one until we start approaching the gamma max point (~$240). Last January, the ATM gamma was between 0.07 - 0.18 prior to the squeeze. Last Friday, we were at 0.0004, up to 0.02 yesterday and back down to 0.01 today.
|
||||
|
||||
Now it's time for the boring part of our story.....
|
||||
|
||||
[](https://preview.redd.it/xs87fj3qtfc71.png?width=1284&format=png&auto=webp&s=381b8d2f45c061e51eb8bd1392d961f4c94fec01)
|
||||
|
||||
*yaaawwnn*
|
||||
|
||||
Overview
|
||||
|
||||
In general, all stock indicators boil down to two things - reversion to the mean and momentum. Every trader wants to accurately predict these two forces better than other guy, and if you use different indicators than the other guy, that an give you an 'alpha' in trading if it's a better predictor.
|
||||
|
||||
I make a lot of different indicators, but the two primary ones are the Delta Neutral and Gamma Neutral:
|
||||
|
||||
- Delta Neutral (DN) - This helps identify reversion to the mean, and represents the underlying price that would create a total market delta of 0 across all GME options (all expiration dates) for a given date. In general, it acts like a floor to the underlying price, but if the price drops below the delta neutral, then it tends to shoot back up above that line.
|
||||
|
||||
- This is generally how I trade my model. I watch for stocks that drop below the DN, and buy them, expecting for traders to identify that the stock is underpriced and will revert back to a higher level.
|
||||
|
||||
- Gamma Neutral (GN) and Gamma Maximum (GM) - This helps identify momentum. The GN represents the underlying price that would create a total market gamma of 0 across all GME options (all expiration dates) for a given date, whereas the GM represents the underlying price that would create the maximum gamma across the market.
|
||||
|
||||
- In general, a sudden increase in gamma indicates a sharp upward in momentum that continues until that gamma drops.
|
||||
|
||||
- The GM seems to act like a ceiling, but fun things happen when the underlying crossing that threshold!
|
||||
|
||||
This is my own personal 'alpha' that I developed for my own trading purposes, and am sharing with this community because it's given me back so much. This is not financial advice. I'm just a mathematician that likes to play with options data, and I am not a professional trader.
|
||||
|
||||
*Methodology and Assumptions*
|
||||
|
||||
Delta Neutral
|
||||
|
||||
The Delta Neutral price that creates a total market delta of 0 across all GME options (all expiration dates) for a given date. It can also be though of as the intersection of a supply/demand curve for hedged stocks. See the "Methodology and Assumptions" section for full detail on how I develop this indicator.
|
||||
|
||||
Notes below for general options on how the delta neutral interacts with the underlying price:
|
||||
|
||||
- There is a large influx of call option purchases, because:
|
||||
|
||||
- The call prices get less expensive as the underlying price approaches the delta neutral
|
||||
|
||||
- Stock prices usually rebound/revert back to the mean after large crashes, so the price often rebounds anyways.
|
||||
|
||||
- With the large influx of call volume, market makers have to start buying stocks to delta hedge, which turns the price back around and creates an upward trajectory.
|
||||
|
||||
- Important note that hedgies often hedge with derivatives instead of buying stocks, so there isn't a 1-to-1 relationship between the delta and shares bought/sold by hedge funds.
|
||||
|
||||
- Historically, you can see that GME often bounces off the delta neutral prices during drops. The exception is the February drop. When the underlying goes below the delta neutral price, a lot of pressure builds up that results in a significant increase when that pressure is released.
|
||||
|
||||
- Note this is the primary way that I trade my model. I made a scanner that looks for equities that fall below the delta neutral.
|
||||
|
||||
Gamma Neutral
|
||||
|
||||
The Gamma Neutral price that creates a total market gamma of 0 across all GME options (all expiration dates) for a given date. See the "Methodology and Assumptions" section for full detail on how I develop this indicator.
|
||||
|
||||
General notes below for observations on how this indicator behaves:
|
||||
|
||||
- It acts like support/resistance between the delta neutral and the underlying, and typically bounces around between the two prices for most symbols (like we have seen with GME since April).
|
||||
|
||||
- It also goes crazy in periods of high volatility, as you can see by the very higher spikes.
|
||||
|
||||
- A gamma spike indicates the presence of POTENTAILLY slippery option market conditions, which COULD lead to a gamma squeeze. There were certainly spikes present back in January, but we had a few one-day false starts this last month.
|
||||
|
||||
- They are often triggered by high price movement in a day, which can lead to continue high growth if underlying volume supports it.
|
||||
|
||||
- Gamma spikes can also be triggered by unusual options purchases during the day. These are the one ones to find, because you can often catch the high increase waves before they actually start.
|
||||
|
||||
- If I'm trading this indicator, I often either wait for a gamma spike to continue for 2 days in a row and supported by increased volume. Otherwise, I invest straight away if I find a gamma spike just based on options movement (i.e. no significant underlying increase yet).
|
||||
|
||||
I write my own algorithms to produce the results above. The following lists some key methodology and assumptions I use:
|
||||
|
||||
- I rely on daily options and stock summaries produced by [www.historicaloptionsdata.com](http://www.historicaloptionsdata.com/)
|
||||
|
||||
- For the Implied Volatility (IV), I use the following method:
|
||||
|
||||
- Calculate the raw IV of the mid-point between bid/ask price at close.
|
||||
|
||||
- Calculate a "blend" IV, which represents the IV where the call/put parity holds, i.e. where call delta -- put delta = 1, using the same IV.
|
||||
|
||||
- Smooth the mid-point call/put and blend IV using a gaussian smoothing algorithm with a 20-strike window.
|
||||
|
||||
- Apply the smoothed call/put relativities to the smoothed blended IV curve
|
||||
|
||||
- Fill any missing values with a linear interpolation of the neighboring strikes.
|
||||
|
||||
- Using the final call/put IV estimates described above, I calculate my own Greeks. I like this source if you're interested in the formulas: <https://www.macroption.com/option-greeks-excel>
|
||||
|
||||
- For the total market delta and total market gamma, I rely on the OI x delta and OI x gamma for each strike price.
|
||||
|
||||
- Note that the delta of a call is usually equal to (1 - put delta), so not adjustment is needed to the delta signs when calculating the total market delta.
|
||||
|
||||
- However, the call/put gammas are both positive based on the B-S calculation. If you're calculating the total gamma for a portfolio, or the total market, you have to add the call gamma and subtract the put gamma.
|
||||
|
||||
- To estimate the delta neutral and the gamma neutral, I have an algorithm that relies on the optimization toolbox in Matlab to identify an underlying price that achieve a total market delta and a total market gamma.
|
||||
|
||||
- Note that the IV would change with higher/lower prices for the delta/gamma neutral and the sensitivity tests, but the impact is not significant enough to make a meaningful difference and takes significant processing time to apply the IV curves. However, it is an important simplifying assumption to be aware of.
|
||||
|
||||
- Open Interest (OI) is always lagged one day for options summaries. The OCC releases final open interest on a given day, and it represents the OI for the close of the prior day. Therefore, the OI I get in my summaries on 6/28 does not represent the OI as of close on 6/28. It represents the OI as of close on 6/25. If you see a source like Yahoo give live OI throughout the day, they are only estimates, and their algorithm methodology for estimating the OI based on various price/volume movement is a closely guarded secret. Using the prior day OI is currently a limitation of the data available to me.
|
||||
|
||||
*Disclaimer: I'm just a mathematician that likes to play with options data and builds models to trade for a hobby. I have no experience trading professionally or offering any advice to anyone. This is just one indicator for one type of price movement, and there are many other indicators that can help you make investment decisions.*
|
@ -0,0 +1,12 @@
|
||||
🔴Daily Reverse Repo Update 07/07: $785.720B🔴
|
||||
==============================================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/pctracer](https://www.reddit.com/user/pctracer/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/ofnful/daily_reverse_repo_update_0707_785720b/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
[Education 👨🏫 | Data 🔢](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22Education%20%F0%9F%91%A8%E2%80%8D%F0%9F%8F%AB%20%7C%20Data%20%F0%9F%94%A2%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||

|
@ -0,0 +1,12 @@
|
||||
🔴Daily Reverse Repo Update 07/08: $793.399B🔴
|
||||
==============================================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/pctracer](https://www.reddit.com/user/pctracer/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/ogbrfh/daily_reverse_repo_update_0708_793399b/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
[Education 👨🏫 | Data 🔢](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22Education%20%F0%9F%91%A8%E2%80%8D%F0%9F%8F%AB%20%7C%20Data%20%F0%9F%94%A2%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||

|
@ -0,0 +1,12 @@
|
||||
🔴Daily Reverse Repo Update 07/09: $780.596B🔴
|
||||
==============================================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/pctracer](https://www.reddit.com/user/pctracer/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/oh09j2/daily_reverse_repo_update_0709_780596b/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
[Education 👨🏫 | Data 🔢](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22Education%20%F0%9F%91%A8%E2%80%8D%F0%9F%8F%AB%20%7C%20Data%20%F0%9F%94%A2%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||

|
@ -0,0 +1,12 @@
|
||||
🔴Daily Reverse Repo Update 07/12: $776.472B🔴
|
||||
==============================================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/pctracer](https://www.reddit.com/user/pctracer/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/oivs13/daily_reverse_repo_update_0712_776472b/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
[Education 👨🏫 | Data 🔢](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22Education%20%F0%9F%91%A8%E2%80%8D%F0%9F%8F%AB%20%7C%20Data%20%F0%9F%94%A2%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||

|
@ -0,0 +1,12 @@
|
||||
🔴Daily Reverse Repo Update 07/13: $798.267B🔴
|
||||
==============================================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/pctracer](https://www.reddit.com/user/pctracer/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/ojk6za/daily_reverse_repo_update_0713_798267b/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
[Education 👨🏫 | Data 🔢](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22Education%20%F0%9F%91%A8%E2%80%8D%F0%9F%8F%AB%20%7C%20Data%20%F0%9F%94%A2%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||

|
@ -0,0 +1,12 @@
|
||||
🔴Daily Reverse Repo Update 07/14: $859.975B🔴
|
||||
==============================================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/pctracer](https://www.reddit.com/user/pctracer/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/ok8ydt/daily_reverse_repo_update_0714_859975b/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
[Education 👨🏫 | Data 🔢](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22Education%20%F0%9F%91%A8%E2%80%8D%F0%9F%8F%AB%20%7C%20Data%20%F0%9F%94%A2%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||

|
@ -0,0 +1,12 @@
|
||||
🔴Daily Reverse Repo Update 07/15: $776.261B🔴
|
||||
==============================================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/pctracer](https://www.reddit.com/user/pctracer/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/okxcsu/daily_reverse_repo_update_0715_776261b/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
[Education 👨🏫 | Data 🔢](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22Education%20%F0%9F%91%A8%E2%80%8D%F0%9F%8F%AB%20%7C%20Data%20%F0%9F%94%A2%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||

|
@ -0,0 +1,12 @@
|
||||
🔴Daily Reverse Repo Update 07/16: $817.566B🔴
|
||||
==============================================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/pctracer](https://www.reddit.com/user/pctracer/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/olldqj/daily_reverse_repo_update_0716_817566b/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
[Education 👨🏫 | Data 🔢](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22Education%20%F0%9F%91%A8%E2%80%8D%F0%9F%8F%AB%20%7C%20Data%20%F0%9F%94%A2%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||

|
@ -0,0 +1,12 @@
|
||||
🔴Daily Reverse Repo Update 07/19: $860.468B🔴
|
||||
==============================================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/pctracer](https://www.reddit.com/user/pctracer/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/onik91/daily_reverse_repo_update_0719_860468b/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
[Education 👨🏫 | Data 🔢](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22Education%20%F0%9F%91%A8%E2%80%8D%F0%9F%8F%AB%20%7C%20Data%20%F0%9F%94%A2%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||

|
@ -0,0 +1,12 @@
|
||||
🔴Daily Reverse Repo Update 07/20: $848.102B🔴
|
||||
==============================================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/pctracer](https://www.reddit.com/user/pctracer/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/oo6i49/daily_reverse_repo_update_0720_848102b/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
[Education 👨🏫 | Data 🔢](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22Education%20%F0%9F%91%A8%E2%80%8D%F0%9F%8F%AB%20%7C%20Data%20%F0%9F%94%A2%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||

|
@ -0,0 +1,548 @@
|
||||
[3/3] The Ultimate DD guide to the moon!!. Crazy Melon
|
||||
======================================================
|
||||
|
||||
| Author | Source |
|
||||
| :-------------: |:-------------:|
|
||||
| [u/sydneyfriendlycub](https://www.reddit.com/user/sydneyfriendlycub/) | [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/comments/n2hjnk/33_the_ultimate_dd_guide_to_the_moon_crazy_melon/) |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
[🔬 DD 📊](https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/search?q=flair_name%3A%22%F0%9F%94%AC%20DD%20%F0%9F%93%8A%22&restrict_sr=1)
|
||||
|
||||
THIS IS FOR YOU MY APES!! None of this is financial advice. I'm a retarded ape playing with crayons and keys.
|
||||
|
||||
This message should reach every ape to help!
|
||||
|
||||
CONTENTS:
|
||||
|
||||
[PART 1](https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/comments/n2hgxq/13_the_ultimate_dd_guide_to_the_moon_crazy_melon/)
|
||||
|
||||
- US DOLLAR BACKING
|
||||
|
||||
- OVERVIEW OF KENNY'S/SHITADEL'S FUCKERY EXPOSED!
|
||||
|
||||
- HOW IS KENNY WASHING THE MONEY?
|
||||
|
||||
- TRUST BONDS: The basket of bonds INFITINE MONEY GLITCH!!!
|
||||
|
||||
- BIG BANKS ARE HOLDINGS COMPANIES???? WHAT IS THAT?
|
||||
|
||||
[PART 2](https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/comments/n2hhhn/23_the_ultimate_dd_guide_to_the_moon_crazy_melon/)
|
||||
|
||||
- HOW AND WHY TO BANKRUPT COMPANIES
|
||||
|
||||
- QUICK RECAP MIXING GME IN:
|
||||
|
||||
- THE MASSIVE REAL ESTATE SCAM!
|
||||
|
||||
- KENNY SCAMMING AROUND THE WORLD
|
||||
|
||||
- WHAT HAPPENS AFTER THE COMPANY GOES BANKRUPT??
|
||||
|
||||
- THE PANDEMIC STIMULUS: The beginning of the end of Kenny
|
||||
|
||||
- KENNY'S FUCK UP!!
|
||||
|
||||
PART 3
|
||||
|
||||
- THE ENDGAME: INEVITABLE! NO FUD
|
||||
|
||||
- SUMMARY
|
||||
|
||||
- TL;DR1:
|
||||
|
||||
- BURRY CONCERN: HYPERINFLATION
|
||||
|
||||
- LIBOR to SOFR
|
||||
|
||||
- TL;DR2 :
|
||||
|
||||
---------------------------------------- CONTINUE!!
|
||||
|
||||
PART 3
|
||||
|
||||
---------------------------------------
|
||||
|
||||
NEW!!!!
|
||||
|
||||
KENNY KENNY KENNETH: A little bit of history..
|
||||
|
||||
"Kenny, Kenny.... Let's all learn a little about Kenny past. Kenneth Cordele Griffin was born October 15, 1968. For a majority of his life he attended Boca Raton Community High School. It was a public school, where he was the head of the finance club... No, actually he was president of Math Club.
|
||||
|
||||
His investing career actually was initiated at the Cabot House as an undergraduate at Haaaaarvard. He must have learned to pay off the right people as he was able to get a satellite dish placed on the roof. His initial ride was with convertible bonds, with was powered from his late grandma to the tune of 265 K. Not a bad chunk of change to begin your investing career. So where did Ken break out &amp;amp; how did he do it? Well no other way than to short stock and have the stock market crash of '87.
|
||||
|
||||
Kenny pushin' them shorts this whole time. It's too cold to be wearin' shorts in those Chicago winters. Da' Frostbite appears to be setting in."
|
||||
|
||||
<https://www.chicagomag.com/Chicago-Magazine/June-2011/The-File-on-Citadels-Ken-Griffin/>
|
||||
|
||||
FOOL ME ONCE..It's on me! FOOL ME TWICE..Really? *Courtesy of that amazing silverback, you know who!*
|
||||
|
||||
---------------------------------------
|
||||
|
||||
THE ENDGAME: INEVITABLE! NO FUD
|
||||
|
||||
Kenny now is trapped. Now we known his game!!
|
||||
|
||||
We also know he IS SHORTING THE the 0.01%, the government and the economy!!!
|
||||
|
||||
Why is Kenny want to do all this?
|
||||
|
||||
THIS IS VERY IMPORTANT!!!
|
||||
|
||||
He wants to be THE KING!! To big to be touched!
|
||||
|
||||
He always wanted to be a bank and be part of the 0.01%
|
||||
|
||||
Putting my Tin Hat on this might sound crazy but.... It does align with Kenny goals!
|
||||
|
||||
Why to move to texas?
|
||||
|
||||
a) Because in texas he can apply for a banking license and become a bank (state banks have lot less regulations than federal banks)
|
||||
|
||||
b) scoop up all the cheap commercial real estate
|
||||
|
||||
c) becomes a massive player in the banking environment
|
||||
|
||||
WHY DOES KENNY WANTS TO BE A BANK SO BADLY?
|
||||
|
||||
A state bank is lot less regulated than a federal bank.
|
||||
|
||||
A BANK IS THE ONLY PIECE MISSING IN KENNY PUZZLE
|
||||
|
||||
This way he will eliminate the middle man, the bank does everything for his fuckery.
|
||||
|
||||
Having a bank means, he will be the one setting the price of the appraisals, also giving the loans, then also liquidating the asset and auctioning controlling the prices to buy everything at the price he wants.
|
||||
|
||||
Being able to always inflate the appraisals and pocket the difference everytime more and more!
|
||||
|
||||
And buying the real estate dirt cheap always! Perfect set up!
|
||||
|
||||
Ohhhh the banks game!!!
|
||||
|
||||
The 0.01% didn't let him in because he's too greedy and try to absorb everything, also he wasn't born into the 0.01%.** he doesn't have the surname or the generous gramma.
|
||||
|
||||
So then he said fuk it! I'm going to be the king and bigger than anybody!!
|
||||
|
||||
Ambition much Kenny?
|
||||
|
||||
Sorry Kenny!
|
||||
|
||||
You can't buy your way into the 0.01% club, you need to born with the surname and Griffin isn't cutting it.
|
||||
|
||||
Kenny no likey 0.01 percento nada!
|
||||
|
||||
He's been issuing years after years of those bad bad useless trust bonds and everyone buys them thinking are solid gold from Shitadel!
|
||||
|
||||
And pocketing so much real estate dirt cheap with all this fuckery!
|
||||
|
||||
HOW THE SEC CAN CATCH HIM?
|
||||
|
||||
Follow the transactions!!
|
||||
|
||||
Open those bonds full of naked shares that's are imaginary!!
|
||||
|
||||
Check on the Treasury (bills, notes and bonds) transactions, how many they have, how many they had and touch Kenny hands.
|
||||
|
||||
Also check where the money they used for Treasuries come from!
|
||||
|
||||
Why are they OVER SHORTING business?
|
||||
|
||||
Open your eyes and realize that they are targeting business that are real estate heavy for a reason!!
|
||||
|
||||
There is clear market manipulation CLEAR
|
||||
|
||||
There is clear MEDIA manipulation, hundreds of examples
|
||||
|
||||
Go and check the loan contracts and compare the loan values of appraisal given versus the real values of the properties!
|
||||
|
||||
Follow the money and follow the real estate.
|
||||
|
||||
Follow companies like this IOR (clearly the worse website I've seen). Only takes 1 minute to see this website to know this is a scam! And this company is managing a 51M market cap and can't even make a half decent website? PLEASE!!!
|
||||
|
||||
How dumb they think we are seriously!!
|
||||
|
||||
<https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/IOR>
|
||||
|
||||
<http://www.incomeopp-realty.com/management.html>
|
||||
|
||||
I 5 year old can make a better website than that!!
|
||||
|
||||
-------------
|
||||
|
||||
How's is the 0.01% is fighting back??
|
||||
|
||||
Creating a bubble too big to handle in GME so they can breaks the Citadel (Kenny and friends) and margin call them before the Federal Reserve implodes!!!
|
||||
|
||||
or exposing his scam and making rules and also by forcing him to cover the shorts!! it's all a lie and fake at the end of the day!
|
||||
|
||||
They need to come up with firewalls (801/002 and others) and ways to protect all the banks and members of the DTCC that are not part of the Shitadel and friends scam!! That's why all those rules have been coming in place.
|
||||
|
||||
Once everything is ready Shitadel and friends are gonna be forced to cover their shorts and naked shorts everywhere. (The bubble is so big that they are gonna get margin called, my floor is $15 million btw).
|
||||
|
||||
Kenny will have to cover institutional shorts, retail shorts, ETFs as well as those garbage trust bonds full of empty shells. Remember that Kenny need to return those borrowed naked IOUs and put a real share in every empty shell on peoples accounts and bonds!! But there is more! Don't forget the bets!
|
||||
|
||||
**Forgot about the FTD plus all the puts accumulated for years that expire 1/16, 4/16 (yes DFV day!!) and 7/17!!?? Thanks for the correction btw!!😍
|
||||
|
||||
That's another massive fukery scam going on and is HUGE! Federal Bank and friends need to break Citadel before Citadel breaks them, the economy and the government by scamming everyone and bankrupting companies!!
|
||||
|
||||
----------------------------
|
||||
|
||||
**NEW GOOOD! EDIT 2: Clues Clues Clues.......
|
||||
|
||||
A totally jacket MAGNIFICENT specimen of a APE dropped this amazing little jewel on the comment!!!
|
||||
|
||||
Fuuuuuuuuuukkkk.
|
||||
|
||||
This is your chance to DIG AND DIG
|
||||
|
||||
I'm a bit tired but you definitely can do your own post and DD about anything or all of this!!
|
||||
|
||||
"- Ashcraft, Adam B. and Gooriah, Kunal and Kermani, Amir, Does Skin‐in‐the‐Game Affect Security Performance? (March 1, 2017). Available at SSRN: [https://ssrn.com/abstract=2437574 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2437574](https://ssrn.com/abstract=2437574%C2%A0or%C2%A0http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2437574)
|
||||
|
||||
- Key paper: Griffin, John M. and Priest, Alex, Is COVID Revealing a CMBS Virus? (August 10, 2020). Available at SSRN: [https://ssrn.com/abstract=3671162 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3671162](https://ssrn.com/abstract=3671162%C2%A0or%C2%A0http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3671162)
|
||||
|
||||
- Shao, Ruoyu, Examination of Potential Misrepresentation in CMBS (June 11, 2015). Available at SSRN: [https://ssrn.com/abstract=2727038 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2727038](https://ssrn.com/abstract=2727038%C2%A0or%C2%A0http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2727038)
|
||||
|
||||
- Wong, Maisy, CMBS and Conflicts of Interest: Evidence from a Natural Experiment on Servicer Ownership (May 12, 2015). The Wharton School Research Paper No. 82, Jacobs Levy Equity Management Center for Quantitative Financial Research Paper, Available at SSRN: [https://ssrn.com/abstract=2605538 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2605538](https://ssrn.com/abstract=2605538%C2%A0or%C2%A0http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2605538) - CMBS and the Fed...is there a crisis brewing in the office? <https://www.ftserussell.com/research/cmbs-and-fedis-there-crisis-brewing-office>
|
||||
|
||||
- There are honestly maybe 6 more papers but I wanted to distill to these. Sites:
|
||||
|
||||
- The article that led me to every CMBS paper and ETF paper written: <https://theintercept.com/2021/04/20/wall-street-cmbs-dollar-general-ladder-capital/>
|
||||
|
||||
- CMBS Disputes on the Horizon? - <https://www.jdsupra.com/legalnews/cmbs-disputes-on-the-horizon-april-2021-9296023/>
|
||||
|
||||
- Increases in forbearance agreements: <https://www.alston.com/en/insights/publications/2020/04/forbearance-agreements-in-the-age-of-covid-19/>
|
||||
|
||||
- Issuance Activity and Interconnectedness in the CMBS Market - <https://www.sec.gov/files/DERA_WP_Knyazeva-Lin-Park_IssuanceActivityInterconnectednessCMBS%20.pdf>
|
||||
|
||||
- Trepp, a group that measures CMBS delinquency rates, suddenly had a change of tone last year in their delinquency reporting and openly suggested in their April 2020 report that "it's time to throw the old way of looking at the data out the window". They've reported economically health numbers since then.
|
||||
|
||||
- Say what you will about the Kroll Bond Agency's shenanigans, but they had an interesting report in Jan '21.: [https://www.kbra.com/documents/report/43448/cmbs-trend-watch-december-2020"](https://www.kbra.com/documents/report/43448/cmbs-trend-watch-december-2020%E2%80%9D)
|
||||
|
||||
BOOM!!
|
||||
|
||||
Go NUTS APES!!!
|
||||
|
||||
Grab a shovel and start digging!!!! Someone has to do it, can be you!!
|
||||
|
||||
Another piece to keep digging!!
|
||||
|
||||
<https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/n2ov32/investigation_weekend_citadel_has_been_working/?utm_source=share&amp;utm_medium=ios_app&amp;utm_name=iossmf>
|
||||
|
||||
END OF THE EDIT2:
|
||||
|
||||
------------------------------------------------------
|
||||
|
||||
SUMMARY
|
||||
|
||||
Holy fuc%#ing shit!!!
|
||||
|
||||
Apes are the last line of defense!!!!! PROTECT THE ECONOMY FROM PREDATOR KENNY G!!!
|
||||
|
||||
Now remember, when was the last time Uncle Sam didn't get his money? I can't remember.. Because Uncle Sam always gets his money and he's coming for Kenny and our tendies!!
|
||||
|
||||
All of them!! This is Citadel (Kenny and friends) vs the DTCC, Federal Reserve and the banks and the PLANET OF THE APEEEEEES!!
|
||||
|
||||
Im seriously JACKED TO THE TITS!!
|
||||
|
||||
I wouldn't be surprised if Kenny is in the deep with something around 2000%+ SI no joke.
|
||||
|
||||
Remember Trump calling Ken out in his speech? Kenny is hiding all his money somewhere. Now we know where: art, real estate, and more. Whose money? *The Federal Reserve and retail's money!* So far he's been kicking the cans [with fukery like this](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/mzgtvx/a_method_for_hiding_ftds_that_uses_the_109mil/).
|
||||
|
||||
Kenny and Citadel have liquidity to fight for now, but the machine stopped printing. Now it's just matter of time, and some MELON just unfolded the entire fuckery!
|
||||
|
||||
As an aside/addendum to all this...but for the sake of not making this long post even longer...
|
||||
|
||||
Im making post 2 on GME subs.
|
||||
|
||||
Next part will talk about something as important that is change from LIBOR to SOFR as well as *The Big Short's* Michael Burry's warnings on hyperinflation.
|
||||
|
||||
This will be a part of the world history, in the end I think the economy will be alright thanks to ape's stimulation, dont be scared ([READ PART 2](https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/comments/n286u2/22_the_ultimate_dd_guide_to_the_moon_crazy_melon/)).
|
||||
|
||||
----------------------------
|
||||
|
||||
TL;DR 1: Kenny is in big trouble for trying to scam the big big money (bigger money than Bezos, Gates and Musk combined) and everyone else to own the banks/Federal Reserve. Machine no printing for him anymore so he's been drained and his game uncovered. Apes need to be patient and keep BUYING AND HOLDING!!! The end is near.
|
||||
|
||||
----------------------------------
|
||||
|
||||
BURRY CONCERN: HYPERINFLATION
|
||||
|
||||
This is quite a handful matter to talk about, I encourage you to do your own research cuz i might be wrong or this might be incomplete.
|
||||
|
||||
But im gonna give it a go! FOR YOU MY AMAZING APES!
|
||||
|
||||
Dr Michael Burry (we all remember him for predicting the 2008 housing market collapse and the big short (Christian bale - Batman!!))
|
||||
|
||||
He has been warning us for a while about a highly probably hyperinflation
|
||||
|
||||
Quote from the [article](https://www.businessinsider.com.au/big-short-michael-burry-warren-buffett-inflation-dangers-warning-investors-2021-2?r=US&amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;IR=T):
|
||||
|
||||
"Burry has been sounding the alarm on inflation. He warned investors last week to "prepare for inflation" as the US economy reopens and receives a fresh round of stimulus. He also compared America's current trajectory to Germany's path to hyperinflation in the 1920s."
|
||||
|
||||
<https://www.businessinsider.com.au/big-short-michael-burry-warren-buffett-inflation-dangers-warning-investors-2021-2?r=US&amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;IR=T>
|
||||
|
||||
The effects of inflation causes different ripple effects, usually increases the banks interest rates reducing the amount of demand of loans, among many many other side effects.
|
||||
|
||||
Also causes products such as goods or services to rise. That will reduce the buying power of a currency.
|
||||
|
||||
---- CURRENCY BUYING POWER AND DEPRECIATION
|
||||
|
||||
Imagine you having $5 and being able to buy a train ticket for $3 and an ice cream for $2.
|
||||
|
||||
When inflation rises, means that the buying power of your money is gonna be reduced, now the train ticket is $3.50 and the ice cream is $2.30, suddenly with your $5 you can only get the train ticket and you are short $0.80 for the ice cream :((.
|
||||
|
||||
---- RIPPLE IN THE MORTGAGE LIKE 2008
|
||||
|
||||
The ripples effect also affects other things like loans or mortgages.
|
||||
|
||||
If you have a subprime loan or mortgage with adjustable rates (this mortgages where the ones that caused the 2008 housing collapse trough swaps) and the interests rates of the banks go up, suddenly my mortgage payments will go up, a lot of people that doesn't have enough money to pay that different will stop paying and the mortgages will default.
|
||||
|
||||
This affects on auto loans, student loans and more.
|
||||
|
||||
Well... with hyperinflation... like the prefix hyper says, it's BIGGER! So imagine that scenario bigger.
|
||||
|
||||
Possibly worse that 2008!!! And the rates and indexes like the SP500 look high.
|
||||
|
||||
<https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/mq2iam/just_hold_on_tight/?utm_source=share&amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;utm_medium=ios_app&amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;utm_name=iossmf>
|
||||
|
||||
Seems scary right? It's not!!
|
||||
|
||||
Check one of my posts for 2 weeks ago talking about this (I made it when I didn't know as much so dont hit me too hard on that one!! :P)
|
||||
|
||||
<https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/mqmj5e/the_how_is_this_gonna_play_out_game_my_prediction/?utm_source=share&amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;utm_medium=ios_app&amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;utm_name=iossmf>
|
||||
|
||||
Everything is going to be fine and if something this is very healthy for the economy.
|
||||
|
||||
The best thing that we need right now is to stop Kenny from creating bubbles of fake shares everywhere!! Its a parasite inside the market!
|
||||
|
||||
Let's keep going, gets better and better! Read my TL;DR further down.
|
||||
|
||||
* * * * *
|
||||
|
||||
EDIT 4: WARNING WARNING ON ETFs STREET!!
|
||||
|
||||
"ETFs are linked like a web. We've had two flash crashes amplified by them in the last 11 years, and their behavior during last year's pandemic accelerated the crash. CMBS are potentially a bowling ball that's going to crash through the spider web of ETFs."
|
||||
|
||||
Thank you you beautiful ape for this info, you know who!!
|
||||
|
||||
Check this key article: <https://theintercept.com/2021/04/20/wall-street-cmbs-dollar-general-ladder-capital/>
|
||||
|
||||
Check this key research paper: Is COVID Revealing a CMBS Virus? <https://ssrn.com/abstract=3671162>"
|
||||
|
||||
BIG WARNING FELLOWS!! EMBRACE FOR IMPACT!
|
||||
|
||||
Rocky ride to the moon, but we are getting there don't be scared!
|
||||
|
||||
------------------------------------
|
||||
|
||||
LIBOR to SOFR
|
||||
|
||||
Take all this this a grain of salt, Probably make a couple of mistakes. [READ THE CHAOS THEORY DD](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/mseyai/chaos_theory_the_final_connection/) to have the proper DD about this. (recommend the whole saga!!)
|
||||
|
||||
Changes from Libor to SOFR were meant to happen in 2022, but guess what?
|
||||
|
||||
They pushed to to June 2021!!!
|
||||
|
||||
<https://webstorage.paulhastings.com/Documents/PDFs/timeline-for-libor-transition.pdf?sfvrsn=363ea8ab_2>
|
||||
|
||||
This is massive!! Why?
|
||||
|
||||
Banks used LIBOR to manipulate their self created and self reported interest rates in order to be favorable and give away money left right and center. Where did tons of that money go? To HEDGEFUNDS!!!
|
||||
|
||||
They borrowed money from banks for almost no interest rates no matter how the economy and inflation was, including during an unprecedented pandemic!!! For what? SHORTING Kenny style!
|
||||
|
||||
Wtf??
|
||||
|
||||
Now you wonder why during a pandemic the whole market was "healthy" and up and growing right?? Inflating business with naked shares...
|
||||
|
||||
Using the same shitadel strategy but with money from the banks and washing everything trough citadel MM, trust bonds and dumping all the garbage in the ETFs and the trust bonds buyers.
|
||||
|
||||
Always betting in bankrupting the companies and then rebuying them to own pieces of the banks/federal reserve.
|
||||
|
||||
So what all this changes mean?
|
||||
|
||||
With Libor banks suppose to self regulate and self report and give interest rates to their customer (business, institutions, people or the government) according to how the economy is, indicators like inflation among other things. [Read about it here.](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/l/libor.asp#:~:text=LIBOR%20is%20administered%20by%20the,data%2Ddriven%2C%20layered%20method)
|
||||
|
||||
The banks have been manipulating this FOR A LONG TIME. Especially after 2008.
|
||||
|
||||
I guess they wanted to recoup their loses and because being HOLDINGS now, they wanted to be bigger and bigger.
|
||||
|
||||
BOOM! The greed
|
||||
|
||||
They got too greedy.... :( Even during the pandemic they gave away loans at very low and favorable rates, it was more than obvious that the economy wasn't right... they needed to raise the rates!
|
||||
|
||||
They didn't!!
|
||||
|
||||
Now they are full of this bad bad loans with subpremiun and adjustable rates, but everything was ok as long as they kept on showing those fake interest rates right?
|
||||
|
||||
SOFR arrives!!
|
||||
|
||||
SOFR was almost implemented on 2019 and almost caused a massive crisis!! BUBBLE ALERT!
|
||||
|
||||
why?
|
||||
|
||||
Lets find out what SOFR means
|
||||
|
||||
[What is SOFR?](https://www.investopedia.com/secured-overnight-financing-rate-sofr-4683954)
|
||||
|
||||
<https://www.jdsupra.com/legalnews/libor-transition-to-sofr-a-brief-9557503/>
|
||||
|
||||
Thanks to a fellow ape in the comments for providing this link ❤️
|
||||
|
||||
The secured overnight financing rate, or SOFR, is an influential interest rate that banks use to price U.S. dollar-denominated [derivatives](https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/12/derivative.asp) and loans. The daily secured overnight financing rate (SOFR) is based on transactions in the [Treasury](https://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/073113/introduction-treasury-securities.asp) repurchase market, where investors offer banks overnight loans backed by their bond assets.
|
||||
|
||||
So the interest rates are not going to be self reported by the banks, but instead the government is going to provide those rates to the banks based on the repo market.
|
||||
|
||||
They believe is a better option than letting the banks manipulate the rates for their advantage.
|
||||
|
||||
This magnificent ape made a really good post about it and thats how I found out about this problem, all credit to him!!
|
||||
|
||||
<https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/mseyai/chaos_theory_the_final_connection/>
|
||||
|
||||
FROM THE CHAOS THEORY:
|
||||
|
||||
Introducing SOFR (Secured Overnight Financing Rate)!!!!! This is a MASSIVE 200 trillion dollar transition that will take place over the next few years.
|
||||
|
||||
OH and it almost imploded the entire fucking market the first time it was attempted to be implemented back in 2019 <https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/notes/feds-notes/what-happened-in-money-markets-in-september-2019-20200227.htm>
|
||||
|
||||
[Definition](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/t/treasurybond.asp)
|
||||
|
||||
brilliant ape make the [CHAOS THEORY](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/mseyai/chaos_theory_the_final_connection/) and explains a lot of what im saying here. A MUST READ
|
||||
|
||||
<https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/mseyai/chaos_theory_the_final_connection/>
|
||||
|
||||
I'll let the rest to the CHAOS THEORY, very well explained.
|
||||
|
||||
That's why Kenny is shorting the TREASURY BILLS, NOTES ands BOND!
|
||||
|
||||
He wants to profit from the banks and government to be insolvent and default!!
|
||||
|
||||
QUOTED FROM CHAOS THEORY:
|
||||
|
||||
As time progresses I believe we will see more evidence of multiple parties attempting to deleverage their positions before 2023. Coincidentally GameStop has just paid off all their debt that was due that exact year.
|
||||
|
||||
So this becomes a two pronged problem;
|
||||
|
||||
1. Assets are being re-hypothecated which are being used as collateral
|
||||
|
||||
2. Banks are providing absurd interest rates off the old LIBOR system instead of SOFR; this has resulted in the taking on a position that will be extremely difficult to get out of.
|
||||
|
||||
As we can see they're fighting against these changes through politics, but it appears they've brought in Gary Gensler to kick some ass.
|
||||
|
||||
We are going to be fine, a few blows to the economy and crisis but everything is going to turn down and de leverage. ----------
|
||||
|
||||
EDIT 3: Check the latest SEC speech, they seem to be focusing a lot on Libor!!! We might be onto something.... Or I'm I just a cOnSpIrAtOr QaNoN sHiLl!!!
|
||||
|
||||
SEC speech on 28 th of April!!
|
||||
|
||||
<https://www.sec.gov/news/speech/werewolves-of-change>
|
||||
|
||||
-----------------------------------
|
||||
|
||||
IM JACKED TO THE TITS!
|
||||
|
||||
TL;DR2 : This is my latest perception and final conclusion of this beautiful saga!
|
||||
|
||||
Well.... Battle of GME is basically going to bankrupt citadel. BOOM!
|
||||
|
||||
It's going be the biggest wealth distribution in history. BOOM!
|
||||
|
||||
There is going to be a domino and a ripple effect. (It's not all about GME, GME is just the tip of the iceberg).
|
||||
|
||||
Kenny has been creating bubbles of money naked with things that does exist to Scam business and retail (among others). Its going to burst, when the bubbles burst, will have repercussions everywhere.
|
||||
|
||||
A lot of tendies are going to the people. That will create a lot of money going around, not just for apes but for everyone, apes will be buying things and paying off their debts and all that.
|
||||
|
||||
That will help reducing the leverage.
|
||||
|
||||
Hyperinflation is going to hit, but the government is going to be able to take it and absorb a big part trough (TIPS) <https://www.investopedia.com/terms/t/tips.asp>
|
||||
|
||||
People and apes are not going to care much about the raise in pricing (inflation) because we will have money and wealth around, huge economy stimulus (Thanks you citadel for the tendies!).
|
||||
|
||||
A huge chunk of money will come to the banks initially, people paying their credit card and loans and mortgages.
|
||||
|
||||
Then tax will come and Uncle Sam will get half of our tendies (if helps the economy not to boom boom im fine!).
|
||||
|
||||
Then things will be stable then and hopefully lot cleaner after.
|
||||
|
||||
This is necessary and healthy to Happen, stock is trading sideways to prepare for all that.
|
||||
|
||||
This is why I think is low volume and trading sideways lately
|
||||
|
||||
Stock is trading sideways because RC needed to to pay the debt and be free from banks leverage.
|
||||
|
||||
Also gather money for the transformation, ! he already did !.
|
||||
|
||||
Also trading still low allow more Apes to jump in!! RC care for us and everyone. Ohhh PAPA RC.
|
||||
|
||||
The DTCC needs time to firewall and protect the banks from Kenny and friends predators.
|
||||
|
||||
Once everything is in place and the scam is suppressed, the huge winners are going be the banks and the federal reserve. But us apes going to ride the rollercoaster all along getting tendies!!
|
||||
|
||||
I won't be surprised if the catalyst is RC announcing a recall, investigation or a crypto dividend on the meeting.
|
||||
|
||||
My smooth brain tells me the catalyst is the Libor to SOFR, always been for me.
|
||||
|
||||
The voting is big because they will have grounds to show the amount of shorting and fukery.
|
||||
|
||||
So be patient and don't be scared. HOLD THE LINE!
|
||||
|
||||
This needs to be done and Kenny needs to be stopped because is making bubbles everywhere in the market is damaging shareholders, the companies and THE ECONOMY!!
|
||||
|
||||
----------------------------------------------------
|
||||
|
||||
Thanks!!
|
||||
|
||||
EDIT 1: Kenny Kenny Kenny...... some history of Kenny!!!
|
||||
|
||||
EDIT 2: Clues and pieces so you can DIG DIG and make your own DD!!! It's time to wake up and keep this baby rolling!!
|
||||
|
||||
EDIT 3: check on the new SEC speech on 28 th of April!!
|
||||
|
||||
<https://www.sec.gov/news/speech/werewolves-of-change>
|
||||
|
||||
Thanks to magnificent [u/sharkbaitlol](https://www.reddit.com/u/sharkbaitlol/) for providing the info.
|
||||
|
||||
You guys check his work THE CHAOS THEORIES that's a must read DD!
|
||||
|
||||
EDIT 4: WARNING WARNING ON ETFs!!!
|
||||
|
||||
Look at this magnificent ape work! Holy shit....
|
||||
|
||||
<https://www.reddit.com/r/DDintoGME/comments/n0i9tw/the_etf_seesaw_part_1/>
|
||||
|
||||
*None of this is financial advice. I'm a retarded ape just rambling words. I'm crazy and a horrible man. So don't believe or listen to anything I say. Don't trust me and do your own research and fact check, I did and I'm jacked to the tits!!*
|
||||
|
||||
EDIT 5: I'm I wrong????
|
||||
|
||||
<https://www.propublica.org/article/whistleblower-wall-street-has-engaged-in-widespread-manipulation-of-mortgage-funds>
|
||||
|
||||
<https://www.propublica.org/article/whistleblower-wall-street-has-engaged-in-widespread-manipulation-of-mortgage-funds>
|
||||
|
||||
[PART 1](https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/comments/n2hgxq/13_the_ultimate_dd_guide_to_the_moon_crazy_melon/)
|
||||
|
||||
[PART 2](https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/comments/n2hhhn/23_the_ultimate_dd_guide_to_the_moon_crazy_melon/)
|
||||
|
||||
BONUS!!: Remember "I am not a CAT!"?
|
||||
|
||||
<https://financial-dictionary.thefreedictionary.com/CAT>
|
||||
|
||||
WE ARE THE LAST LINE OF DEFENSE AGAINST THIS SCAM! HOLD THE LINE!!!!
|
||||
|
||||
This is not financial advice at all! Just a crazy melon 🍉 playing with some crayons. I eat the sometimes yummmm
|
||||
|
||||
💎🙌------> 🦍🦧🚀🌝!!
|
||||
|
||||
If you are not done reading....
|
||||
|
||||
I recommend this work.....
|
||||
|
||||
[u/atobitt](https://www.reddit.com/u/atobitt/) good DD to inform yourself
|
||||
|
||||
[u/sharkbaitlol](https://www.reddit.com/u/sharkbaitlol/) chaos theories connect a lot of dots
|
||||
|
||||
[u/toffis](https://www.reddit.com/r/gme_capitalists/comments/mvwc9k/financial_system_historical_ownership_and/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf)
|
||||
|
||||
Now this chart does look that crazy now?
|
||||
|
||||
<https://www.docdroid.net/Q8qCCvM/rgme-pokes-at-kenny-g-pdf>
|
Some files were not shown because too many files have changed in this diff Show More
Reference in New Issue
Block a user